派樂騰 (PTON) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q1 營收 $551M,超出指引高標 $6M,Adjusted EBITDA $118M,年增 2%,同樣優於指引
    • 上修 2026 全年毛利率指引至 52%(+100bps),Adjusted EBITDA 指引上調至 $425M-$475M,全年最低自由現金流目標上修至 $250M
    • Bike+ 座墊柱自願召回已反映於財報與指引,市場反應未明確提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 新產品線(Cross-training 與 Pro 系列)及 Peloton IQ AI 個人教練推動高階產品銷售組合優化
      • Breath work 收購與醫療機構合作(如 HSS、ReSpin Health)拓展至更廣泛的健康與生活階段服務
      • 美國與澳洲零售據點擴張,與 Johnson Fitness & Wellness 合作提升實體通路覆蓋
      • 商用事業(Precor 結合 Peloton 軟硬體)於飯店、住宅、健身房等 B2B 市場展現成長潛力
    • 風險:
      • Connected Fitness 設備市場短中期仍呈下滑,需求復甦速度具不確定性
      • 召回事件帶來潛在品牌與訂閱流失風險,雖管理層認為財務影響有限
      • 硬體銷售下滑導致訂閱用戶數年減 6%,未來成長需靠新產品與服務帶動
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 付費 Connected Fitness 訂閱數:2.732M,YoY -6%,高於指引 2,000,主因硬體銷售優於預期
    • 平均月流失率(churn):1.6%,YoY -20bps,QoQ -10bps,連續兩季下降
    • 付費 App 訂閱數:542,000,含 Breath work 收購用戶
    • Connected Fitness 產品營收:$152M,YoY -5%
    • 訂閱營收:$398M,YoY -7%
    • 總毛利率:51.5%,YoY -30bps,若排除召回影響則為 54%
    • Connected Fitness 產品毛利率:6.9%,YoY -230bps,若排除召回影響則為 15.8%,YoY +660bps
    • 訂閱毛利率:68.6%,YoY +80bps
    • 自由現金流:$67M,YoY +$57M
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 全年營收指引維持 $2.4B-$2.5B
    • 全年毛利率上修至 52%(前次 51%),Q2 預估約 49%
    • 全年 Adjusted EBITDA 上修至 $425M-$475M(+12% YoY 中值)
    • 全年最低自由現金流目標上修至 $250M(+ $50M)
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 新商用事業單位的市場機會與 Precor 整合進度?
      A: 商用市場規模大且滲透率低,Precor 的硬體與 Peloton 軟體/內容結合具獨特優勢,Precor 已在 60 多國有布局,有助 Peloton 拓展國際 B2B 市場,目前已開始在飯店等商用場域推動新產品。
    • Q: 未來五年有無發放股息計畫?
      A: 目前重心仍在去槓桿與優化資本結構,未來隨著財務體質改善,將有更多資本配置選項,包括回購、再投資、併購或現金股息,但現階段尚未有明確股息政策。
    • Q: Bike+ 召回事件對業務、品牌與訂閱有何影響?
      A: 召回影響已反映於 $16.5M 應計,對訂閱僅有小幅暫時性流失,預期 Q3 多數暫停用戶會回歸,對全年營收影響不大,且已納入指引。
    • Q: 調漲訂閱價格後 churn 觀察與用戶結構變化?
      A: 漲價初期 churn 短暫上升,主要來自不活躍用戶,之後已回歸正常,預期全年 churn 持平。雖有更多高 churn 的租賃/二手用戶,但資深用戶比例提升有助穩定流失率。
    • Q: 新產品上市與 Repowered 二手平台進展?
      A: 新產品上市前已妥善規劃庫存,對假期旺季有信心。Repowered 平台作為二手市場切入點,已建立流程確保召回產品也能獲得更換零件,平台表現符合預期,未來考慮導入認證機制。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. My name is Karen, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Peloton Interactive First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to James Marsh, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    感謝您的耐心等待。我叫凱倫,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此,我謹代表 Peloton Interactive 向大家歡迎參加 2026 財年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)我現在將電話轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁詹姆斯·馬什。請繼續。

  • James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

    James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Peloton's First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Conference Call. Joining today's call are Peloton Chief Executive Officer and President, Peter Stern; and Chief Financial Officer, Liz Coddington.

    謝謝接線生。下午好,歡迎參加 Peloton 2026 財年第一季電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有 Peloton 執行長兼總裁 Peter Stern 和財務長 Liz Coddington。

  • Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include forward-looking statements related to our business under federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business. Please refer to our SEC filings and today's press release, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website for a discussion of our material risks and other important factors that could impact our results.

    我們對貴方問題的評論和答覆僅反映管理層截至今日的觀點,並將包含根據聯邦證券法作出的與我們業務相關的前瞻性陳述。由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明中包含或暗示的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的新聞稿,這兩份文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到,其中討論了我們的重大風險和其他可能影響我們業績的重要因素。

  • During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's press release. I'll now turn the call over to Peter.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。今天的新聞稿中提供了GAAP與非GAAP財務指標的調節表。現在我將把電話交給彼得。

  • Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, James. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. Before I summarize our performance in Q1, I'd like to address our voluntary recall announced earlier today.

    謝謝你,詹姆斯。各位下午好,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。在總結我們第一季的業績之前,我想先談談我們今天早些時候宣布的自願召回計劃。

  • As previously disclosed, we have received a small number of reports of an original series Bike+ seat post breaking during use. As of today, we are aware of three such incidents. The well-being of our members is our highest priority, and therefore, in cooperation with the US Consumer Product Safety Commission and Health Canada, we are voluntarily recalling approximately 833,000 units in the US and approximately 44,800 units in Canada of the original series like Bike+ model. These units were manufactured from December 2019 to July 2022 and sold beginning in 2020 to April 2025. We are offering an updated self-installable seat post replacement, which is the CPSC approved remedy. Impacted members will receive an e-mail with order instructions, and the notification will also appear on their Bike+ touch screen. This recall does not impact any other equipment models, including our new cross training series Bike and Bike+.

    正如先前披露的那樣,我們收到了一些關於原始 Bike+ 系列座桿在使用過程中斷裂的報告。截至今日,我們已獲悉三起此類事件。會員的福祉是我們的首要任務,因此,我們與美國消費品安全委員會和加拿大衛生部合作,自願在美國召回約 833,000 台原系列產品,在加拿大召回約 44,800 台原系列產品,例如 Bike+ 型號。這些產品於 2019 年 12 月至 2022 年 7 月生產,並於 2020 年至 2025 年 4 月期間銷售。我們提供升級版的可自行安裝的座桿替換零件,這是經美國消費品安全委員會 (CPSC) 批准的解決方案。受影響的會員將收到一封包含訂單說明的電子郵件,通知也會顯示在他們的 Bike+ 觸控螢幕上。此次召回不影響任何其他設備型號,包括我們新的交叉訓練系列 Bike 和 Bike+。

  • The anticipated financial impact is reflected in our results and our guidance, including the increases to our adjusted EBITDA guidance and minimum free cash flow target. Liz will share more details about the financial impact later in this call.

    預期的財務影響已反映在我們的業績和指引中,包括上調調整後的 EBITDA 指引和最低自由現金流目標。Liz稍後將在本次電話會議中分享更多關於財務影響的細節。

  • Turning our attention to the first quarter of the fiscal year. I am proud of Peloton. In the quarter leading up to our October 1 innovation review. Our team once again successfully executed on our business priorities, progressed our financial results and delivered positive human impact at scale. As a result, our performance came in above the guidance range on most key financial metrics in this seasonally slower quarter for fitness equipment sales, and we continue to see year-over-year growth in average workout time per connected fitness subscription.

    接下來,我們將目光轉向本財年的第一季。我為Peloton感到自豪。在 10 月 1 日創新評估之前的季度。我們的團隊再次成功執行了業務重點,提高了財務業績,並大規模地產生了積極的人類影響。因此,在健身器材銷售季節性放緩的這個季​​度,我們的大多數關鍵財務指標的業績都超過了預期範圍,而且我們繼續看到每個連網健身訂閱用戶的平均鍛鍊時間同比增長。

  • Looking from the outside in during the first quarter, it may have felt like business as usual. As we continue to demonstrate financial discipline and established a strong foundation for achieving our full year financial guidance. But behind the scenes, the quarter was anything but. Throughout the quarter, the Peloton team was hard at work setting the stage for our new chapter by innovating on every aspect of our magic formula of premium equipment, software powered by AI, world-class instructors and a deeply engaged community.

    從外部觀察,第一季的一切似乎都照常進行。我們持續展現出財務紀律,並為實​​現全年財務目標奠定了堅實的基礎。但幕後情況卻並非如此。整個季度,Peloton 團隊都在努力為我們的新篇章奠定基礎,對我們神奇配方的各個方面進行創新,這些配方包括優質設備、人工智慧驅動的軟體、世界一流的教練和深度參與的社群。

  • In last quarter's remarks, I laid out Peloton's strategy. The first and most foundational part of that strategy is our commitment to improving member outcomes. To that end, on October 1, we simultaneously unveiled and began shipping the most significant product update in our history with an all-new equipment lineup, the Peloton cross-training series and the Peloton Pro series. Our understanding of human health has progressed since Peloton took the world by storm with the introduction of the original bike. And today, we know that adults need to pursue a combination of cardio, strength and more to achieve their wellness goals. To that end, all Peloton products now feature advanced swivel screens, allowing members to easily transition between cardio and strength to complete floor workouts, including strength, yoga, Pilates and stretching.

    在上個季度的演講中,我闡述了 Peloton 的策略。此策略的首要且最根本的部分是我們致力於改善會員的體驗。為此,10 月 1 日,我們同時發布了公司歷史上最重要的產品更新,推出了全新的設備系列—Peloton 交叉訓練系列和 Peloton Pro 系列。自從 Peloton 推出初代自行車風靡全球以來,我們對人類健康的認識已經取得了長足的進步。如今我們知道,成年人需要將有氧運動、肌力訓練等多種運動結合起來,才能實現他們的健康目標。為此,所有 Peloton 產品現在都配備了先進的旋轉螢幕,讓會員可以輕鬆地在有氧運動和力量訓練之間切換,完成包括力量訓練、瑜伽、普拉提和拉伸在內的各種地板運動。

  • Our new plus line includes an advanced computer vision movement tracking camera that counts your reps, corrects your form and offers weight suggestions in real time, along with voice control, enabling members to adjust weights, skip moves or pause their workout without touching the thing. We've made several additional upgrades, including improvements in audio across the board and featuring sound by Sonos in our plus line for a studio like experience.

    我們全新的 Plus 系列產品配備了先進的電腦視覺運動追蹤攝像頭,可以即時計算您的重複次數、糾正您的動作姿勢並提供重量建議,同時還具備語音控制功能,讓會員無需觸碰設備即可調整重量、跳過動作或暫停鍛煉。我們還進行了幾項其他升級,包括全面改進音頻,並在我們的 Plus 系列產品中採用 Sonos 音效,帶來錄音室般的體驗。

  • On October 1, we also launched Peloton IQ, which gives every Peloton member of personalized coach regardless of whether they own our new cross-training series, our original series or work out with a Peloton at subscription. Peloton IQ uses AI to turn years of insights and data points, including your goals, class activity and health tech from wearable devices into personal training guidance. In so doing, Peloton IQ makes some of the benefits of personal training accessible to millions of people, providing individual insights and recommendations based on members' intentions, preferences, level of fitness and performance.

    10 月 1 日,我們還推出了 Peloton IQ,無論 Peloton 會員擁有的是我們的全新交叉訓練系列、我們的原創系列,還是透過訂閱方式使用 Peloton 進行鍛煉,Peloton 都會為他們提供個性化的教練服務。Peloton IQ 利用人工智慧將多年的洞察和數據點(包括您的目標、課堂活動和來自穿戴式裝置的健康科技)轉化為個人訓練指導。透過這種方式,Peloton IQ 讓數百萬人都能享受私人訓練的一些好處,根據會員的意圖、偏好、健身程度和表現提供個人化的見解和建議。

  • Since launching the cross-training series in Peloton IQ, we've observed a favorable mix shift toward our more premium products, including a mix shift toward tread sales and toward our plus line of products. The latter of which we believe is driven by excitement around the advanced computer vision features. Beyond our work on cardio and strength, the trust we've built with our community gives us an opportunity to address an even broader array of wellness domains.

    自從在 Peloton IQ 中推出交叉訓練系列以來,我們觀察到市場對高階產品出現了有利的組合變化,包括跑步機銷售和 Plus 系列產品的銷售組合變化。我們認為後者是由人們對先進電腦視覺功能感到興奮所驅動的。除了有氧運動和肌力訓練之外,我們與社區建立的信任也讓我們有機會涉足更廣泛的健康領域。

  • In September, we acquired Breath work, an award-winning app specializing in breathing exercises which have been shown to positively impact sleep, focus, blood pressure, heart rate variability, stress and anxiety. The breath work subscription app makes mental fitness accessible to all and now our members can enjoy breadthwork as part of their -- all Access or -- at Plus subscriptions. We'll have more to share over time as we evolve in this important category.

    9 月,我們收購了 Breath work,這是一款屢獲殊榮的應用程序,專門提供呼吸練習,這些練習已被證明可以對睡眠、注意力、血壓、心率變異性、壓力和焦慮產生積極影響。這款呼吸練習訂閱應用程式讓所有人都能輕鬆進行心理健康鍛煉,現在我們的會員可以透過他們的所有 Access 或 Plus 訂閱享受呼吸練習。隨著我們在這一重要領域不斷發展,未來我們將分享更多資訊。

  • We also announced a first-of-its-kind collaboration with the Hospital for Special Surgery, the world leader in orthopedics to offer Peloton members access to expert care for joint in muscle pain, injuries and orthopedic conditions. We've codeveloped class collections with HSS medical experts recently launching the first five on preventing some of the most common types of injuries.

    我們也宣布與世界骨科領導者——特種外科醫院進行首創合作,為 Peloton 會員提供關節和肌肉疼痛、損傷和骨科疾病的專家護理。我們與 HSS 醫療專家共同開發了一系列課程,最近推出了前五門課程,旨在預防一些最常見的損傷類型。

  • We're also committed to meeting members where they are in their life stages. In response to member demand, we started with menopause, a life stage that impacts the majority of our members at some point in their lives. We're extremely proud of our partnership with ReSpin Health founded by Halle Berry to revolutionize menopause care with an integrated holistic approach and have just launched a study with over 1,000 women to measure the benefits of targeted movement strategies and other evidence-based lifestyle interventions. These findings will power our evolving evidence-based exercise programming and menopause support.

    我們也致力於在會員人生的不同階段為他們提供服務。為了回應會員的需求,我們首先關注更年期,這是影響我們大多數會員一生中某個階段的生命階段。我們非常自豪能與哈莉·貝瑞創立的 ReSpin Health 合作,以綜合整體方法革新更年期護理,並剛剛啟動了一項針對 1000 多名女性的研究,以衡量有針對性的運動策略和其他循證生活方式乾預措施的益處。這些研究成果將為我們不斷發展的實證運動計畫和更年期支持提供動力。

  • The second part of our strategy is to meet members everywhere. We have made great progress on this front over the past few weeks. We now have 10 micro stores in the US, up from one prior to Q1. And we also announced a new retail partnership with Johnson Fitness and Wellness, the nation's largest independent fitness retailer with 100 locations across the US. We now have a physical retail presence in 46 states. While in Australia, we launched a retail presence in 11 franchise locations throughout the country.

    我們策略的第二部分是與各地的會員見面。過去幾週,我們在這方面取得了巨大進展。我們現在在美國擁有 10 家微型商店,而第一季之前只有一家。我們也宣布與 Johnson Fitness and Wellness 建立新的零售合作夥伴關係,Johnson Fitness and Wellness 是全美最大的獨立健身零售商,在美國擁有 100 家門市。我們目前在46州設有實體零售店。在澳洲期間,我們在全國開設了 11 家特許經營店,拓展了零售業務。

  • Our expanded retail footprint positions us well for the holiday season, providing opportunities for consumers to test and experience our new innovations. Our commercial business unit continues to show strong performance and is an area in which we are also innovating. The new Peloton Pro series offers a complete lineup of Peloton equipment for commercial environments such as hotel gyms and multi-residential buildings and includes the Tread+ Pro, Peloton's first ever commercial treadmill. And Precor launched its new commercial Tread, the Breakaway. This new Slatbelt treadmill includes a sled style push mode, cadence Coach and a new console design.

    我們擴大的零售佈局使我們為假期季節做好了充分準備,為消費者提供了測試和體驗我們新產品的機會。我們的商業業務部門持續保持強勁的業績,這也是我們正在進行創新的領域。全新的 Peloton Pro 系列為飯店健身房和多戶住宅大樓等商業環境提供了一整套 Peloton 設備,其中包括 Peloton 首款商用跑步機 Tread+ Pro。Precor 推出了其新款商用跑步機 Breakaway。這款新型 Slatbelt 跑步機包括雪橇式推行模式、踏頻教練和全新設計的控制台。

  • Peloton also recently became the primary fitness partner powering Utah City, a 700-acre mixed-use development outside of Salt Lake City. And now every residential building in Utah City will feature a Peloton space that includes several pieces of Peloton equipment and accessories for residents.

    Peloton 最近也成為猶他城(位於鹽湖城郊外,佔地 700 英畝的綜合用途開發項目)的主要健身合作夥伴。現在,猶他市的每棟住宅大樓都將配備一個 Peloton 空間,其中包含多個 Peloton 設備和配件供居民使用。

  • The third part of our strategy is to make members for life. Celebrating achievement is crucial for sticking with any program. So last month, we launched Club Peloton, our first loyalty and recognition program. As members engage with our platform, they progress through levels from bronze to legend. Unlocking exclusive content recognition and rewards. Already more than 500,000 members have engaged with Club Peloton.

    我們策略的第三部分是培養終身會員。慶祝成就對於堅持任何計劃都至關重要。所以上個月,我們推出了 Club Peloton,這是我們的第一個會員忠誠度和認可計劃。隨著會員與我們平台的互動,他們的等級將從青銅級提升到傳奇級。解鎖專屬內容、認可和獎勵。目前已有超過 50 萬名會員加入 Club Peloton。

  • On October 1, we also introduced official Peloton teams led by Peloton instructors including move for life, menopause, Hiro and cross training. These teams provide a forum for members to connect, discuss goals and learn from each other and from experts, further elevating Peloton's community. Since October 1, engagement with Teams is up nearly 50%.

    10 月 1 日,我們還推出了由 Peloton 教練帶領的官方 Peloton 團隊,包括活力生活、更年期、Hiro 和交叉訓練。這些團隊為成員提供了一個交流、討論目標、互相學習以及向專家學習的平台,進一步提升了 Peloton 的社群。自 10 月 1 日以來,Teams 的使用率提高了近 50%。

  • Ultimately, all these strategic initiatives, product innovation, wellness expansion and new distribution are underpinned by the fourth part of our strategy. Our commitment to operational discipline and business excellence. Our full year guidance announced in August included targeted initiatives to improve monetization, such as the introduction of expert assembly fees. These were implemented within the quarter and exceeded our expectations. At the same time, our cost reduction plans remain on track. Perhaps most important, we remain confident in our ability to inflect toward revenue growth as the fiscal year progresses, building on the actions we took in Q1 and on October 1.

    歸根結底,所有這些策略舉措、產品創新、健康拓展和新分銷管道都以我們策略的第四部分為基礎。我們致力於規範營運和追求卓越業務。我們在 8 月公佈的全年業績指引中包括旨在提高盈利能力的專項舉措,例如引入專家組裝費。這些措施在本季度內都已落實到位,並超出了我們的預期。與此同時,我們的成本削減計劃仍在按計劃進行。或許最重要的是,我們仍然有信心,隨著本財年的推進,我們將能夠扭轉局面,實現收入成長,這建立在我們在第一季和 10 月 1 日採取的行動之上。

  • We continue to monitor and respond to evolving tariff policies and broader changes in the macro environment and consumer spending. While those external factors are real, our focus remains on execution and being the best fitness and wellness partner to our members. We believe we offer an unmatched ecosystem of products and experiences to help our members invest in their health and well-being.

    我們將繼續關注並應對不斷變化的關稅政策以及宏觀環境和消費者支出的更廣泛變化。儘管這些外部因素確實存在,但我們的重點仍然是執行力,以及成為我們會員最好的健身和健康夥伴。我們相信,我們提供無與倫比的產品和體驗生態系統,幫助我們的會員投資於他們的健康和福祉。

  • As we enter this important holiday season, Peloton is exceptionally well positioned with great new equipment, Peloton IQ, new wellness partnerships, expanded distribution, a resurgent commercial business unit, new loyalty features, successful monetization changes and improvements in our financial performance.

    隨著我們進入這個重要的假期季節,Peloton 憑藉出色的新設備、Peloton IQ、新的健康合作夥伴關係、擴大的分銷管道、復甦的商業業務部門、新的忠誠度功能、成功的貨幣化變革以及財務業績的改善,處於非常有利的地位。

  • I'll now pass it over to Liz, who will share more details about our Q1 financial results and guidance for the remainder of the year.

    現在我將把發言權交給莉茲,她將分享更多關於我們第一季財務業績和今年剩餘時間業績指引的細節。

  • Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

    Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Peter. I want to begin with our first quarter financial results in which we exceeded the high end of our guidance on most key metrics. We ended the first quarter with 2.732 million paid connected fitness subscriptions, reflecting a decrease of 6% year-over-year. Q1 is typically a seasonally lower quarter for hardware sales and seasonally higher quarter for churn. We exceeded the high end of our guidance range by 2,000 driven by higher-than-expected gross additions.

    謝謝你,彼得。我想先談談我們第一季的財務業績,我們在大多數關鍵指標上都超過了預期上限。第一季末,我們的付費連網健身訂閱用戶數為 273.2 萬,年減 6%。第一季通常是硬體銷售的淡季,而客戶流失率則是旺季。由於新增總人數高於預期,我們超出了預期範圍的上限 2000 人。

  • Connected Fitness gross additions outperformed our expectations due to higher unit sales of our Connected Fitness products in both first-party and third-party retail channels. Average net monthly paid Connected Fitness subscription churn was 1.6%, an improvement of 20 basis points both year-over-year and 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter, in line with our expectations. We ended the quarter with 542,000 ending paid app subscriptions, inclusive of subscriptions from our acquisition of Breath work.

    由於我們的互聯健身產品在第一方和第三方零售通路的銷售量均有所成長,互聯健身業務的新增毛利超出了我們的預期。平均每月淨付費連網健身訂閱流失率為 1.6%,年減 20 個基點,較上季下降 10 個基點,符合我們的預期。本季末,我們的付費應用程式訂閱用戶數為 542,000,其中包括我們收購 Breath work 後獲得的訂閱用戶數。

  • Total revenue was $551 million in Q1, comprising $152 million of Connected Fitness products revenue and $398 million of subscription revenue, outperforming the high end of our guidance range by $6 million. Outperformance relative to guidance was primarily driven by Connected Fitness products revenue from higher-than-expected hardware sales of both Peloton and Precor products. Connected Business Products revenue decreased $7 million or 5% year-over-year, driven by lower equipment sales and deliveries, partially offset by a mix towards higher-priced products.

    第一季總收入為 5.51 億美元,其中包括 1.52 億美元的互聯健身產品收入和 3.98 億美元的訂閱收入,比我們預期範圍的上限高出 600 萬美元。業績超出預期主要得益於互聯健身產品收入,其中 Peloton 和 Precor 產品的硬體銷售額均高於預期。互聯商業產品收入較去年同期下降 700 萬美元,降幅達 5%,主要原因是設備銷售和交付量下降,但部分被高價產品組合所抵銷。

  • Subscription revenue decreased to $28 million or 7% year-over-year, primarily driven by lower ending paid connected fitness subscription, lower content licensing revenue and lower ending paid app subscriptions, partly offset by used equipment activation fee revenue, which was introduced in late August of fiscal 2025.

    訂閱收入年減至 2,800 萬美元,降幅為 7%,主要原因是付費連網健身訂閱收入、內容授權收入和付費應用程式訂閱收入的下降,部分被 2025 財年 8 月下旬推出的二手設備激活費收入所抵消。

  • Total gross profit was $284 million in Q1 and a decrease of $20 million or 7% year-over-year. Total gross margin was 51.5%, a decrease of 30 basis points year-over-year and 50 basis points below our guidance of 52%. Total gross margin was negatively impacted by a $13.5 million accrual for Bike+ seat post inventory costs this quarter, in addition to $3 million we accrued in the prior quarter, representing a total estimated impact of $16.5 million. Excluding this $13.5 million charge in Q1, total gross margin would have been 54%. or 200 basis points above our Q1 guidance.

    第一季總毛利為 2.84 億美元,年減 2,000 萬美元,降幅為 7%。總毛利率為 51.5%,年減 30 個基點,比我們預期的 52% 低 50 個基點。本季度,由於提列了 1,350 萬美元的 Bike+ 座管庫存成本,加上上一季提列的 300 萬美元,總毛利率受到負面影響,預計總影響為 1,650 萬美元。如果剔除第一季這筆 1,350 萬美元的費用,總毛利率將達到 54%,比我們第一季的預期高出 200 個基點。

  • Beginning in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, we began assigning executive compensation and other corporate overhead expenses associated with our corporate facilities as we focus on driving more accountability for cost at a functional level. Prior to fiscal 2026, these costs were all recorded in G&A, but starting in Q1 are assigned across cost of goods sold, sales and marketing, G&A and R&D.

    從 2026 財年第一季開始,我們開始分配與公司設施相關的管理人員薪資和其他公司管理費用,因為我們致力於在職能層面提高成本責任感。在 2026 財年之前,這些成本全部計入一般及行政費用,但從第一季開始,這些成本被分配到銷售成本、銷售和行銷、一般及行政費用和研發費用。

  • Connected Fitness products gross margin was 6.9%, a decrease of 230 basis points year-over-year, primarily driven by the Bike+ seat post inventory accrual I just noted. Excluding the inventory accrual, Connected Fitness product gross margin would have been 15.8%, an improvement of 660 basis points year-over-year, driven by a mix shift toward higher-margin products, lower warranty costs, a decrease in inventory reserves and lower warehousing and distribution costs.

    互聯健身產品的毛利率為 6.9%,年減 230 個基點,主要原因是剛才提到的 Bike+ 座桿庫存計提。剔除存貨提列後,連網健身產品的毛利率將達到 15.8%,年增 660 個基點,主要得益於產品組合向高利潤率產品轉變、保固成本降低、存貨準備金減少以及倉儲和分銷成本降低。

  • Subscription gross margin was 68.6%, an increase of 80 basis points year-over-year. Total operating expenses, excluding restructuring, impairment and supplier settlement expenses, were $230 million in Q1, a decrease of $30 million or 12% year-over-year, reflecting the continued progress we've made in rightsizing our cost structure, as well as a reduction to advertising expenses in Q1 ahead of our hardware portfolio refresh announced on October 1.

    訂閱業務毛利率為 68.6%,較去年成長 80 個基點。第一季總營運支出(不包括重組、減損和供應商結算支出)為 2.3 億美元,年減 3,000 萬美元或 12%,這反映了我們在調整成本結構方面取得的持續進展,以及在 10 月 1 日宣布硬體產品組合更新之前,第一季度廣告支出的減少。

  • We are on track to achieve our target to deliver at least $100 million of run rate cost savings by the end of fiscal 2026. Sales and marketing expenses were $67 million in Q1, a decrease of $15 million or 18% year-over-year, primarily driven by decreases in acquisitions, brand and creative marketing spend as well as a decrease in retail showroom expenses. As of the end of Q1, we had seven legacy retail showrooms remaining.

    我們預計將實現目標,到 2026 財政年度結束至少節省 1 億美元的營運成本。第一季銷售和行銷費用為 6,700 萬美元,較去年同期減少 1,500 萬美元或 18%,主要原因是收購、品牌和創意行銷支出以及零售展廳費用的減少。截至第一季末,我們還有七家傳統零售展廳。

  • Research and development expenses were $62 million in Q1 an increase of $4 million or 6% year-over-year, primarily driven by cost assignments from G&A, which were partially offset by lower product development costs from reduction in contractor spend.

    第一季研發費用為 6,200 萬美元,比去年同期增加 400 萬美元,增幅為 6%,主要原因是 G&A 成本分配增加,但部分被承包商支出減少導致的產品開發成本降低所抵銷。

  • General and administrative expenses were $101 million in Q1, a decrease of $19 million or 16% year-over-year, primarily driven by cost assignments to other functional areas and lower professional fees.

    第一季一般及行政費用為 1.01 億美元,年減 1,900 萬美元或 16%,主要原因是成本分配到其他職能領域以及專業費用降低。

  • This quarter, we recognized $13 million of impairment and restructuring expenses, of which $8 million was noncash. The noncash charges were primarily related to asset write-downs associated with accelerated retail store closures, while the remaining $5 million of cash charges were primarily related to exit and disposal costs and professional fees.

    本季度,我們確認了 1,300 萬美元的減損和重組費用,其中 800 萬美元為非現金費用。非現金支出主要與加速關閉零售店相關的資產減損有關,而剩餘的 500 萬美元現金支出主要與退出和處置成本以及專業費用有關。

  • Adjusted EBITDA was $118 million in Q1, which was a $2 million or 2% improvement year-over-year and $18 million above the high end of our guidance range. To note, the $13.5 million accrual for Bike+ seatpost inventory cost was not added back to adjusted EBITDA. We generated $67 million of free cash flow in Q1, an increase of $57 million year-over-year, significantly outperforming our prior expectation for slightly negative cash flow in the quarter.

    第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.18 億美元,年增 200 萬美元或 2%,比我們預期範圍的上限高出 1,800 萬美元。需要注意的是,Bike+ 座管庫存成本的 1,350 萬美元提列並未加回調整後的 EBITDA。第一季我們產生了 6,700 萬美元的自由現金流,比上年同期增加了 5,700 萬美元,遠超過我們先前對該季度略微為負現金流的預期。

  • Free cash flow benefited from tariff-related favorability associated with both lower-than-expected tariff rates and delayed timing for certain tariffs going into effect, lower operating costs associated with realizing indirect cost savings faster than anticipated, revenue favorability and other smaller impacts. Q1 free cash flow included roughly $30 million of timing favorability. We ended Q1 with $1.104 billion in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, an increase of $64 million quarter-over-quarter. Net debt was $395 million, a decrease of $382 million or 49% year-over-year.

    自由現金流受益於與關稅相關的利多因素,包括低於預期的關稅稅率和某些關稅生效時間的延遲;營運成本降低,間接成本節約實現速度快於預期;收入利好以及其他較小的影響。第一季自由現金流包含了約 3000 萬美元的時機有利因素。第一季末,我們擁有11.04億美元的非限制性現金及現金等價物,比上一季增加了6,400萬美元。淨債務為 3.95 億美元,比上年減少 3.82 億美元,降幅達 49%。

  • Overall, our first quarter profitability performance has enabled us to continue deleveraging our balance sheet. Our gross leverage ratio, defined as our gross principal debt outstanding divided by trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, was 3.8% in Q1, a substantial improvement from the 14% in Q1 of last year. Similarly, our net leverage ratio, defined as gross principal debt outstanding net of cash and cash equivalents, divided by trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, was 1.1% in Q1, down from 7.5% in Q1 of last year. We believe we have more cash on the balance sheet today than we need to run the business and are evaluating opportunities to optimize our capital structure over time.

    總體而言,我們第一季的獲利表現使我們能夠繼續降低資產負債率。第一季度,我們的總槓桿率(定義為未償債務總額除以過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA)為 3.8%,較去年第一季的 14% 有了顯著改善。同樣,我們的淨槓桿率(定義為未償債務總額減去現金及現金等價物後除以過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA)在第一季為 1.1%,低於去年第一季的 7.5%。我們認為目前資產負債表上的現金比營運業務所需更多,並且正在評估隨著時間的推移優化資本結構的機會。

  • In February 2026, roughly $200 million of 0% convertible notes will come due and we intend to pay them down at that time. It's also worth noting our $1 billion term loan has a 1% call premium through May of 2026. We are mindful of the timing of when this call premium expires as we evaluate our options. We expect a refinancing to deliver a lower cost of capital and more flexibility to our capital allocation strategy.

    2026 年 2 月,約 2 億美元的 0% 可轉換債券將到期,我們打算屆時償還這些債券。值得注意的是,我們10億美元的定期貸款在2026年5月之前有1%的贖回溢價。我們在評估各種方案時,會密切注意這項選擇權溢價的到期時間。我們預計再融資將降低資本成本,並為我們的資本配置策略帶來更大的靈活性。

  • Next, I'd like to share context for our financial outlook for Q2 and the remainder of the fiscal year. Our full year fiscal 2026 revenue outlook of $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion is unchanged from what we provided last quarter and reflects a 2% revenue decrease year-over-year at the midpoint. Our recently announced changes to subscription pricing were incorporated into our previous full year outlook. And so far, the impact of those changes has been in line with our expectations.

    接下來,我想分享我們對第二季和本財年剩餘時間的財務展望背景。我們對 2026 財年全年營收的預期為 24 億美元至 25 億美元,與上個季度給出的預期相同,其中數值反映出同比營收下降 2%。我們近期宣布的訂閱價格調整已納入我們先前的全年業績展望中。到目前為止,這些變化的影響與我們的預期相符。

  • We are pleased that our members continue to see the value in their Peloton membership and the recently added benefits like Peloton IQ, Club Peloton, Breath work and more. As we noted last quarter, our full year guidance anticipates an inflection toward growth during certain quarters within the fiscal year. Our Q2 revenue outlook of $665 million to $685 million reflects this expectation, with a slight increase of 0.2% year-over-year at the midpoint and an increase of 23% quarter-over-quarter as a result of seasonally higher equipment sales and recent pricing changes.

    我們很高興看到我們的會員繼續認可 Peloton 會員資格的價值,以及最近新增的 Peloton IQ、Club Peloton、呼吸訓練等福利。正如我們上個季度所指出的,我們的全年業績預期將在本財年的某些季度出現成長轉機。我們第二季營收預期為 6.65 億美元至 6.85 億美元,反映了這一預期,其中值較上年同期略微增長 0.2%,環比增長 23%,這得益於季節性設備銷售增加和近期價格變動。

  • We are raising our full year fiscal 2026 guidance for total gross margin to 52%, which is an increase of 100 basis points from our prior guidance and an improvement of 110 basis points year-over-year. primarily driven by favorable tariff rate relative to our prior full year guidance as policy continues to evolve, a favorable mix of sales towards higher-margin products and our continued focus on driving cost efficiency to our supply chain. These tailwinds are partially offset by the accrual for the Bike+ depot inventory impacting Q1.

    我們將2026財年全年總毛利率預期上調至52%,較先前的預期提高100個基點,較上年同期增加110個基點。這主要得益於有利的關稅稅率(隨著政策的不斷變化),銷售結構向高利潤產品傾斜,以及我們持續致力於提高供應鏈的成本效益。這些利多因素部分被 Bike+ 倉庫庫存的應計成本所抵消,該成本將影響第一季。

  • Q2 total gross margin is expected to be roughly 49%, down 250 basis points quarter-over-quarter, due to an expected seasonally higher mix of Connected Fitness products revenue. We are raising our full year fiscal 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $425 million to $475 million reflecting an increase of $25 million from our prior guidance and an improvement of 12% year-over-year at the midpoint. Driven by favorable gross profit and operating expenses, reflecting our expectation for realizing cost savings faster than previously anticipated. To note, we are increasing our full year guidance by $25 million, notwithstanding the $13.5 million accrual for Bike+ epost inventory costs. in Q1.

    由於預計互聯健身產品收入的季節性成長,第二季總毛利率預計約為 49%,季減 250 個基點。我們將 2026 財年全年調整後 EBITDA 預期上調至 4.25 億美元至 4.75 億美元,較先前的預期增加 2,500 萬美元,中位數較上年同期成長 12%。由於有利的毛利和營運費用,反映出我們預期成本節約的速度將比先前預期的更快。值得注意的是,儘管第一季提列了1,350萬美元的Bike+電子郵資庫存成本,我們仍將全年業績預期上調2,500萬美元。

  • Our Q2 outlook for adjusted EBITDA of $55 million to $75 million reflects an increase of 11% year-over-year at the midpoint, but a decrease of 45% quarter-over-quarter due to seasonally higher marketing spend in Q2. Our Q2 guidance for ending paid Connected Fitness subscription of $2.64 billion to $2.67 million reflects a decrease of 8% year-over-year at the midpoint. Average net monthly paid Connected Fitness subscription churn is expected to increase year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter due to an increase in subscription cancellations and following our pricing changes announced on October 1. However, our guidance reflects an expectation that our net churn rate will be flat year-over-year in full year fiscal 2026. We also expect growth additions to decrease year-over-year as a result of an expected year-over-year decrease in hardware sales.

    我們對第二季調整後 EBITDA 的預期為 5,500 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元,其中值較上年同期增長 11%,但由於第二季季節性行銷支出較高,環比下降 45%。我們預計第二季付費連網健身訂閱收入為 26.4 億美元至 26.7 億美元,其中數值年減 8%。由於訂閱取消量增加以及我們在 10 月 1 日宣布的價格調整,預計 Connected Fitness 訂閱的平均每月淨付費流失率將同比和環比增加。然而,我們的預期反映出,2026 財年全年淨流失率將與前一年持平。我們也預計,由於硬體銷售額預計將年減,新增成長也將較去年同期下降。

  • Generating meaningful free cash flow remains a top priority. We are raising our full year fiscal 2026 minimum free cash flow target by $50 million to at least $250 million, reflecting the benefit of lower tariffs, both from lower rates, and later-than-expected implementation timing and our progress on realizing indirect cost savings sooner. This target reflects our expectations for a roughly $45 million impact to free cash flow as a result of tariff exposure, which remains a dynamic situation that may change in the future.

    產生可觀的自由現金流仍然是首要任務。我們將 2026 財年全年最低自由現金流目標提高 5,000 萬美元至至少 2.5 億美元,這反映了關稅降低的好處,包括稅率降低、實施時間晚於預期以及我們在更快地實現間接成本節約方面取得的進展。這一目標反映了我們對關稅風險可能對自由現金流造成約 4,500 萬美元影響的預期,而這種情況仍在不斷變化,未來可能會有所改變。

  • Overall, our guidance for Q2 and the remainder of the fiscal year reflects continued improvement in profitability and progress toward revenue growth. We still expect to achieve the important milestone of positive operating income on a full year basis in fiscal 2026.

    整體而言,我們對第二季及本財年剩餘時間的業績預期反映了獲利能力的持續改善和營收成長的進展。我們仍期望在 2026 財年實現全年正營業收入這一重要里程碑。

  • Now we'd like to open the line for Q&A. Thanks, Liz.

    現在我們開放問答環節。謝謝你,莉茲。

  • James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

    James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

  • We'll begin the Q&A process this evening by taking a couple of questions from investors that send in their topics in advance. The first question will come from Bill. Leaderboard name is Life Bill asked, what is the market opportunity for the new commercial business unit? How we be approaching the new geographical markets and will successfully integrate Precor and Peloton for unified B2B offering. Peter?

    今晚我們將開始問答環節,先回答一些投資人提前提交的問題。第一個問題將由比爾提出。排行榜名稱是 Life Bill,他問道,新的商業業務部門的市場機會是什麼?我們將如何開拓新的地理市場,並成功整合 Precor 和 Peloton,以實現統一的 B2B 服務。彼得?

  • Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Bill, I love your leaderboard name. Strategically, our commercial business unit is set up to win. First, the market opportunity is large, and we still have very low share. And when I talk to gym operators, they all tell me that there's only one brand that consumers ask for by name, and that's Peloton. Second, the combination of Precor and Peloton just makes sense. You think about Precor's brawn coming together with Peloton's brains and you've got something no one else can match. And let me explain what I mean by that because we've got plenty of smart people over on the Precor team.

    比爾,我喜歡你的排行榜用戶名。從策略上看,我們的商業業務部門已經做好了獲勝的準備。首先,市場機會很大,而我們目前的市佔率仍然很低。當我與健身房經營者交談時,他們都告訴我,消費者只會指名道姓地詢問一個品牌,那就是 Peloton。其次,Precor 和 Peloton 的結合是理所當然的。想想看,Precor 的雄厚實力加上 Peloton 的智慧,就造就了其他任何人都無法匹敵的人才。讓我解釋一下我的意思,因為Precor團隊裡有很多聰明人。

  • Precor builds equipment that is truly commercial grade. It's the kind of stuff that's built to be run like 12 hours a day. And they also have the installation and service capabilities for commercial establishments. Peloton has software, content, community that's absolutely unmatched. You bring those things together, and we've got every reason to be able to win.

    Precor生產的設備真正達到了商業級標準。這種設備的設計初衷就是每天運作 12 小時。他們也具備為商業機構提供安裝和服務的能力。Peloton擁有無與倫比的軟體、內容和社群。把這些因素結合起來,我們就有充分的理由贏得比賽。

  • Bill, you talked also about a third point I'd raise, which is international. Peloton is only in six countries right now, but Precor is in over 60 countries. So that opens up opportunities for Peloton to enter these new markets in ways that build on existing distribution and relationships that we've already got, starting with B2B. So strategically, we're in a great place. It's just an execution challenge from here, and you can already see us executing on this. For example, Precor now provides all the installation and service for Peloton commercial locations, including hotels.

    比爾,你還談到了我要提出的第三點,那就是國際問題。Peloton 目前只在六個國家開展業務,而 Precor 的業務已遍及 60 多個國家。因此,這為 Peloton 進入這些新市場創造了機會,我們可以利用現有的分銷管道和關係,從 B2B 開始,逐步發展壯大。所以從策略角度來看,我們處於非常有利的位置。接下來就只剩下執行上的挑戰了,你們已經可以看到我們正在執行這項挑戰。例如,Precor 現在為 Peloton 商業場所(包括飯店)提供所有安裝和維護服務。

  • Last month, we announced Precor's first slated Tread, the breakaway with a new smarter, more powerful screen and Peloton's first ever commercial tread initially for hospitality and for multi-dwelling units was launched as part of the new Peloton Pro line. So you add all of this up, I feel great about where we are with our commercial business unit, and I'm confident we're going to be able to bring this together and deliver an industry-leading set of products and solutions on behalf of commercial clients.

    上個月,我們宣布了 Precor 的首款跑步機,這款突破性的跑步機配備了更智能、更強大的屏幕,而 Peloton 的首款商用跑步機最初面向酒店和多戶住宅,作為新的 Peloton Pro 系列的一部分推出。綜上所述,我對我們商業業務部門目前的狀況感到非常滿意,我有信心我們能夠將這一切整合起來,代表商業客戶提供業界領先的產品和解決方案。

  • James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

    James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

  • Great. Thanks, Peter. Our second question comes from Christopher in San Francisco. Leaderboard named Create. Are there any plans in the next five years to provide for dividends? Liz, maybe you can handle this one.

    偉大的。謝謝你,彼得。我們的第二個問題來自舊金山的克里斯多福。排行榜名為「創建」。未來五年內是否有發放股利的計畫?莉茲,或許你能應付這件事。

  • Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

    Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So while this question is specifically asking about offering dividends, it might actually be more helpful if I take a step back and update you all on our current capital structure and talk through our perspective on overall capital allocation strategy. As many of you may recall, in May of 2024, we were approaching a maturity wall, and we successfully completed a $1.35 billion refinancing of our balance sheet.

    當然。雖然這個問題具體是關於派發股息的,但如果我退一步,向大家介紹一下我們目前的資本結構,並談談我們對整體資本配置策略的看法,可能會更有幫助。許多人可能還記得,在 2024 年 5 月,我們即將面臨債務到期危機,我們成功完成了 13.5 億美元的資產負債表再融資。

  • Now following our refinancing, we have generated meaningful free cash flow with $380 million of free cash flow in the last 12 months. And we're really proud of the work that we've done to really strengthen and quickly deleverage our balance sheet with net debt decreasing by $382 million or 49% year-on-year. Our net leverage ratio really reflects the great work that the company has done to get healthy. And the deleveraging story really is a positive for our company, and it should open doors for us to be able to potentially lower interest expense in the future and also invest in strategic uses of our cash.

    現在,經過再融資,我們產生了可觀的自由現金流,在過去的 12 個月中,自由現金流達到了 3.8 億美元。我們為所做的工作感到非常自豪,這些工作真正加強並迅速降低了我們的資產負債表槓桿率,淨債務同比減少了 3.82 億美元,降幅達 49%。我們的淨槓桿率真正反映了公司在實現健康發展方面所做的巨大努力。去槓桿化對我們公司來說確實是一件好事,它應該能為我們未來降低利息支出以及將現金用於策略用途打開大門。

  • We do think it's still a bit early to discuss a specific framework for capital allocation, but we do expect that it will become a focus when we pursue a refinancing at the right time. Now there are a few things that I would like to highlight. We talked about this earlier, but we believe there is more cash on our balance sheet than we need to run the business today and that we are a much better credit today than when we last refinanced. Our current priority is continuing to deleverage as we believe this will maximize the optionality for us in the future and reduce our cost of capital.

    我們認為現在討論具體的資本配置框架還為時過早,但我們預計,在合適的時機進行再融資時,這將成為一個重點。現在我想重點強調幾點。我們之前討論過這個問題,但我們相信,我們資產負債表上的現金比我們目前經營業務所需的現金要多,而且我們現在的信用狀況比上次再融資時要好得多。我們目前的首要任務是繼續降低槓桿率,因為我們相信這將最大限度地增加我們未來的選擇餘地,並降低我們的資本成本。

  • Now when we think about appropriate range for our gross leverage ratio targets, we're thinking about them in terms of established frameworks, such as the public ratings framework. Ideally, we would want to align with companies that maintain high single B to BB ratings, and we think a gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio in the range of 2x to 4x is reflective of a good sustainable structure.

    現在,當我們考慮總槓桿目標的適當範圍時,我們會根據既定的框架來考慮,例如公開評級框架。理想情況下,我們希望與那些保持較高的 B 至 BB 單項評級的公司合作,我們認為總債務與 EBITDA 比率在 2 倍至 4 倍之間反映了良好的可持續結構。

  • So with that continued deleveraging, we expect to have more capital allocation alternatives available to us, and those could include things like buying back stock, reinvesting in the business to drive organic growth, pursuing potential inorganic growth opportunities or going back to your original question, offering cash dividends.

    因此,隨著去槓桿化的持續進行,我們預計將有更多資本配置選擇,這些選擇可能包括回購股票、再投資於業務以推動內生成長、尋求潛在的非內生成長機會,或回到你最初的問題,提供現金股利。

  • James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

    James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

  • Great. Karen, can you open it up to Q&A at this stage?

    偉大的。Karen,現在可以開放問答環節嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Andrew Boone, Citizens Bank.

    安德魯·布恩,公民銀行。

  • Andrew Boone - Analyst

    Andrew Boone - Analyst

  • Thanks so much for taking the question. I would love to just ask about the recall. Can you guys compare this to the initial recall and just help us understand why those two recalls weren't combined?

    非常感謝您回答這個問題。我想問一下關於召回的事情。你們能不能把這次召回和最初的召回做個比較,幫我們理解為什麼這兩次召回沒有合併?

  • Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, Andrew. I'll cover that. This is Peter. As I'm sure you can imagine, decisions around recalls are really complicated and depend on a lot of factors. But what I can say is that the original series Bike and the original series Bike+ are different models and they're physically different pieces of equipment. And at the time of the Bike seat post recall, there were no incidents or zero incidents relating to the Bike+.

    當然可以,安德魯。我會負責這部分。這是彼得。正如您所能想的,召回決策非常複雜,取決於許多因素。但我可以肯定的是,原版 Bike 和原版 Bike+ 是不同的型號,它們在實體結構上也是不同的裝置。在 Bike 座桿召回事件發生時,Bike+ 並未發生任何事故或零事故。

  • Andrew Boone - Analyst

    Andrew Boone - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks. And then just as a follow-up, I'd love to understand if there are any derivative impacts from the recall around the business, the brand. Can you guys, again, compare this to the previous recall, just help us to understand if there are any ripples that we should be thinking about the broader business? Thank you so much.

    好的。謝謝。最後,我想進一步了解一下,這次召回是否對公司和品牌產生了任何衍生影響。各位能否再次將這次召回與先前的召回進行比較,幫助我們了解是否存在任何值得我們關注的連鎖反應,從而對更廣泛的業務產生影響?太感謝了。

  • Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

    Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So I can take this one. So let me just first talk about the cost impact. We talked in our prepared remarks about the $13.5 million accrual that we booked in Q1 and in addition to the $3 million that we accrued in Q4, which is a $16.5 million impact. And we do believe that, that is -- that we made the appropriate assessments and judgments around sizing that accrual but estimates are forward-looking and what actual results may differ.

    當然。所以我可以接受這個。那麼,我先來談談成本影響。我們在事先準備好的發言稿中談到了我們在第一季提列的 1350 萬美元應計項目,加上我們在第四季度提列的 300 萬美元,總計影響達 1650 萬美元。我們確實相信,我們已經對應計項目的規模做出了適當的評估和判斷,但估計是前瞻性的,實際結果可能會有所不同。

  • For subscriptions, which I think is one of the things that you were asking about comparing to the prior recall, based on behaviors from our prior post recall that was in May of 2023 and which applied only to our original Bike models, our Q2 guidance incorporates a small anticipated headwind to paid Connected Fitness net churn, and that's driven by elevated subscription pauses. We expect the majority of these incremental positives to be unpaused in Q3. And so that nets out to a small drag on subscriptions for the year.

    對於訂閱服務,我認為這是您詢問的與上次召回相比的情況之一,根據我們上次在 2023 年 5 月召回後的行為(該召回僅適用於我們最初的自行車型號),我們第二季度的業績預期中付費互聯健身淨流失率將略有下降,這是由於訂閱暫停率上升所致。我們預計這些新增正面因素中的大部分將在第三季恢復。因此,這將對今年的訂閱量造成小幅拖累。

  • Now in terms of revenue impact, unlike our prior seat post recall, this recall effect bikes manufactured during a specific period that we no longer sell and we already have replacement seat post inventory available to begin to fulfill anticipated replacement orders. And the overall revenue impact is expected to be immaterial and is reflected in our full year guidance.

    就收入影響而言,與我們之前的座桿召回不同,這次召回影響的是在特定時期生產的自行車,這些自行車我們已不再銷售,而且我們已經有替換座桿庫存,可以開始滿足預期的替換訂單。預計整體營收影響微乎其微,這已反映在我們的全年業績預期中。

  • James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

    James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Andrew. Karen, we can take the next question.

    謝謝你,安德魯。凱倫,我們可以回答下一個問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Arpine Kocharyan, UBS.

    Arpine Kocharyan,瑞銀集團。

  • Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

    Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question. So I'm going to combine two questions into one, if I may. And you alluded to this in your prepared remarks, but you're raising EBITDA and your revenue guidance is unchanged, which tells me that there's no major change in your thinking as it relates to underlying churn assumptions from before you raised pricing. First, is that a correct read? And secondly, if you could talk through your thinking of how you see churn normalizing. I think you said or normalizing within 8, 12 months post price increase back in 2022. Could you maybe talk about how your base of subscribers is different today versus '22 kind of emerging from COVID lockdown. On the other hand, you've been targeting maybe segments of the market that have underlying turned a bit higher through your rental program in the secondary market. Just if you could talk through what you see different today would be super helpful. Thank you.

    您好,感謝您回答我的問題。如果可以的話,我想把兩個問題合併成一個。你在事先準備好的發言稿中也提到了這一點,但你提高了 EBITDA,而收入預期保持不變,這說明你對潛在客戶流失率的假設與你提高價格之前相比並沒有發生重大變化。首先,這個解讀正確嗎?其次,能否請您談談您對客戶流失正常化的看法?我想你之前說過,價格上漲後 8 到 12 個月內就會恢復正常。您能否談談如今您的訂閱用戶群與 2022 年疫情封鎖結束後相比有何不同?另一方面,您可能透過二級市場的租賃計劃,瞄準了那些潛在價格略有上漲的市場區隔。如果你能詳細說說你​​今天看到的不同之處,那就太好了。謝謝。

  • Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, Arpine, this is Peter. I'll get started on this, and then Liz, feel free to jump in as always. As Liz said, the impact of the price increase in terms of churn has been in line with our expectations, and we're pleased with how it's going. Just to give you a sense of kind of the timing of the thing, we saw elevated cancellations in the first week or so after the announcement. And that was, as you can imagine, mostly concentrated in the first couple of days and it was concentrated also in members who were more inactive versus our most active members, as you'd also imagine. And some of those people were likely to cancel at some point anyway.

    是的,Arpine,這是Peter。我先開始吧,然後莉茲,你隨時可以像往常一樣加入進來。正如 Liz 所說,價格上漲對客戶流失的影響符合我們的預期,我們對目前的進展感到滿意。為了讓您對這件事的時間點有個大致了解,我們在公告發布後的第一周左右就看到了大量的取消訂單。正如你所想,這種情況主要集中在頭幾天,而且也主要集中在不太活躍的會員身上,而不是我們最活躍的會員身上,這也在情理之中。而且這些人中有些本來就可能會取消預訂。

  • Since then, our churn has mostly moderated back to normal. As we indicated in our remarks here, our churn was actually down in Q1. That was the second quarter in a row that has taken place. And so we feel pretty good about the overall churn dynamics associated with the business. We have an increasingly tenured base of loyal members at this stage. And so if we step back and look at what to expect over the course of the year, the higher cancellations and pauses as a result of the price increase will -- that will manifest as higher churn in Q2. Then we should see an improvement in Q3, especially because we'll be reactivating some of the people who paused rather than canceled in Q2.

    從那時起,我們的客戶流失率基本上已經恢復正常。正如我們在此聲明中指出的,我們第一季的客戶流失率實際上有所下降。這是連續第二季發生這種情況。因此,我們對與業務相關的整體客戶流失動態感到相當滿意。目前我們擁有越來越多忠誠的長期會員。因此,如果我們回顧今年的情況,就會發現價格上漲導致的取消和暫停訂單數量增加,這將在第二季度表現為更高的客戶流失率。那麼我們應該會在第三季看到改善,特別是因為我們將重新啟動一些在第二季暫停而不是取消訂閱的用戶。

  • And if we look at the year overall, we're projecting to see overall flat churn on a percentage basis over the entire year despite the tick up in Q2, and that's based on our confidence in the relationship that we have with our members. Yes, we have a very -- a different composition of our members. We have more people who are on programs like rentals, for example, are coming from the secondary market, which tend to have higher churn, but that's offset by the fact that we have more -- much more tenured members and that tenured effect leads to lower churn. So all of those things add up to us feeling the level of confidence we've expressed about churn.

    從全年來看,儘管第二季客戶流失率略有上升,但我們預計全年整體客戶流失率將保持平穩,這是基於我們對與會員之間關係的信心。是的,我們的成員組成非常不同。例如,我們有更多的人參與租賃等項目,他們來自二手市場,而二手市場的人員流動率往往較高,但這被我們擁有更多長期會員這一事實所抵消,而長期會員效應導致了較低的人員流動率。綜上所述,所有這些因素加起來,讓我們對客戶流失率抱持如此高的信心。

  • Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

    Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

  • Helpful thank you.

    很有幫助,謝謝。

  • Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

    Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, I could just -- I was just going to add a little bit about EBITDA -- so our EBITDA for the year, we did -- it reflects the outperformance that we had in Q1 because we are taking it up relative to our prior guidance by about $25 million on a full year basis. And so we outperformed in Q1, and then we do expect to see continued tariff favorability associated with the timing delays and lower rates than we had anticipated when we set our prior guidance. And then we also expect that we will realize some of the cost savings related to our $100 million run rate cost savings plan sooner than we anticipated. So all of those factors are driving some of that improvement in adjusted EBITDA.

    是的,我本來想補充一點關於 EBITDA 的資訊——我們今年的 EBITDA 確實反映了我們在第一季度取得的優異業績,因為我們全年的 EBITDA 比之前的預期高出約 2500 萬美元。因此,我們在第一季表現出色,而且我們預計,由於時間延遲和稅率低於我們先前製定指導方針時的預期,關稅優惠將繼續存在。此外,我們也預計,與1億美元年度成本節約計畫相關的部分成本節約將比預期更早實現。因此,所有這些因素都推動了調整後 EBITDA 的部分改善。

  • Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

    Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Marni Lysaght, Macquarie Capital.

    Marni Lysaght,麥格理資本。

  • Marni Lysaght - Analyst

    Marni Lysaght - Analyst

  • Hi, team. Thanks for, taking my questions. I know you've called out, Peter, some of the factors driving the free cash flow result. You're talking to the full year as well. But can you just when we kind of go through the balance sheet and you're talking about timing benefits, like receivables has come in quite lower relative to sales. And I appreciate inventories are a touch high. You've obviously been potentially preparing new products. So just thinking about some of the working capital nuances feeding into free cash flow trends going into this quarter and how you might think about this current quarter and for the -- and how that ties into the full year?

    大家好。謝謝您回答我的問題。我知道你已經指出了一些影響自由現金流結果的因素,彼得。你指的是全年的情況。但是,當我們仔細查看資產負債表,談到時間收益時,例如應收帳款相對於銷售額已經大幅下降,您能解釋一下嗎?我知道庫存確實有點高。顯然,你們可能一直在籌備新產品。所以,請思考一下影響本季自由現金流趨勢的一些營運資本細微差別,以及您會如何看待本季和全年的情況,以及這與全年有何關聯?

  • Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

    Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So in terms of Q1, we certainly exceeded our expectations, which we had thought would be slightly negative. And we had some that performance, and we talked about tariffs and some of those things as well. and our cost savings plan. But we did have about $30 million, which I talked about earlier, a benefit from vendor payment time. And so some of that is related to payment terms, improvements in our payment terms and things like that. So that is probably a bit of what you're seeing. And on a full year basis, I do -- we expect to see that continued favorability and then the -- but the timing will reverse in there. So we're taking our free cash flow target up by $50 million, but that is a minimum free cash flow target also. I want to make sure that to remind you all of that, we expect to be able to outperform that. over the course of the year.

    是的。所以就第一季而言,我們確實超出了預期,我們原本認為第一季的業績會略微低於預期。我們也進行了一些績效評估,討論了關稅以及其他一些相關問題,以及我們的成本節約計畫。但我們確實獲得了大約 3000 萬美元,正如我之前提到的,這是供應商付款時間的好處。因此,其中一些與付款條件有關,例如付款條件的改進等等。所以,你看到的可能就是這個意思。從全年來看,我們預計這種利好情緒會持續下去,然後——但時機可能會逆轉。因此,我們將自由現金流目標提高了 5,000 萬美元,但這只是最低自由現金流目標。我想再次提醒大家,我們預計今年能夠超越這個目標。

  • Marni Lysaght - Analyst

    Marni Lysaght - Analyst

  • Understood. And just kind of, I guess, with new products coming to market, the right way of thinking about industry?

    明白了。我想,隨著新產品不斷上市,我們該如何正確思考這個產業?

  • Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

    Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So we are balanced in terms of how we thought about inventory for our new products. Even though it's news to everyone here that we launched them in October, obviously, we have been planning for this for quite a while. And so we had a balance of working down our inventory on our old products, and we're being pretty measured about how much we built up in advance of the holiday season. So we feel pretty good about where we are at this point.

    是的。因此,我們在考慮新產品的庫存問題時,採取了平衡的策略。雖然大家還不知道我們是在十月推出這些產品的,但顯然,我們為此已經計劃了很長時間。因此,我們既要努力減少舊產品的庫存,又要謹慎控制假日前的庫存儲備。所以,我們對目前的狀況感覺相當不錯。

  • Marni Lysaght - Analyst

    Marni Lysaght - Analyst

  • Okay. That's understood. And just a quick one on with repowered the kind of like the marketplace platform. How do we think about, I guess, the early progress at had a national rollout over the summer? And would the recall -- would that impact some of the vendors on that?

    好的。明白了。再簡單說一下,重新打造的類似市場平台。我想,我們應該如何看待今年夏天在全國推廣的早期進展?這次召回會不會對一些供應商造成影響?

  • Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

    Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Yes. So on Repowered, we -- again, that -- it's still a relatively new marketplace for us. And -- but we did create it as a way to help facilitate secondary market transactions because we're -- we are pretty -- the secondary market is an important entry point for us for price-sensitive customers. Now in terms of the recall, we do have -- we will have -- either we do already or we very well have a process in place to make sure that anyone buying on our Repowered marketplace will have access to a Bike+ seat post. It will be part of kind of the flow that they go through when they purchase a bus through that marketplace.

    是的。是的。所以,在 Repowered 上,我們——再說一遍——它對我們來說仍然是一個相對較新的市場。但我們創建它的目的確實是為了幫助促進二級市場交易,因為我們——我們非常——二級市場是我們面向價格敏感型客戶的重要切入點。關於召回事宜,我們已經制定了流程,或者說我們將會制定流程,以確保任何在我們 Repowered 市場上購買產品的人都能獲得 Bike+ 座桿。這將是他們透過該市場購買巴士時所經歷的流程的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Shweta Khajuria, Wolfe Research.

    Shweta Khajuria,Wolfe Research。

  • Shweta Khajuria - Equity Analyst

    Shweta Khajuria - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my questions. Let me try two, please. First is, Liz, if you could speak to just the overall demand environment. And as you think about the rest of the quarter and into calendar quarter Q1 post the holidays, how are you -- what are you seeing right now that gives you conviction on demand trends, generally, especially in the US? And then, my follow-up question is on your commercial opportunity. You kind of talked to this earlier as part of your answer to the first question, could you please help us frame how big that opportunity could be for you in the, call it, near to midterm? And how are you measuring progress as you tap into that opportunity. Thank you.

    謝謝您回答我的問題。請讓我試試兩個。首先,Liz,你能談談整體需求環境嗎?展望本季剩餘時間以及假期後的第一季度,您目前看到了哪些趨勢,讓您對整體需求趨勢,尤其是美國的需求趨勢,充滿信心?然後,我的後續問題是關於您的商業機會。您在回答第一個問題時已經稍微提到過這一點,您能否幫我們說明一下,在接近中期的時候,這個機會對您來說有多大?那麼,在把握這一機會的過程中,你該如何衡量進展呢?謝謝。

  • Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

    Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So let me talk a little bit about demand trends that we're seeing. So for the Connected Fitness market overall, our internal estimates when we use third-party sales data do indicate that, that category in the US is still declining year-over-year post the surge that we saw from the 2020 to mid fiscal 2022, but the rate of decline has decelerated to low single digits. So we're pretty encouraged by the trajectory it is moving towards. But we do expect to see some continued softness in Connected Fitness equipment demand in the short to medium term, and that is incorporated into our full year guidance.

    當然。那麼,讓我來談談我們目前看到的需求趨勢。因此,就整個互聯健身市場而言,我們使用第三方銷售數據進行的內部估計表明,在美國,該類別在經歷了 2020 年至 2022 財年中期的激增之後,仍在逐年下降,但下降速度已放緩至個位數。所以我們對它目前的發展軌跡感到非常鼓舞。但我們預計,在中短期內,連網健身設備的需求仍將持續疲軟,這一點已納入我們的全年業績預期。

  • It's also worth reminding everyone that we are a large player in the Connected Fitness market segment. So our actions to focus on profitability do have an impact within the segment overall, especially for hardware sales. But in the long term, we do remain bullish on our growth potential as well as growth for that -- for the Connected Fitness category and the fitness and wellness economy overall.

    另外值得提醒大家的是,我們在互聯健身市場領域也扮演著重要角色。因此,我們專注於獲利能力的舉措確實對整個行業產生了影響,尤其是對硬體銷售而言。但從長遠來看,我們仍然看好自身的成長潛力,以及互聯健身領域和整個健身健康經濟的成長前景。

  • I do want to touch on the overall economy, wellness fitness and wellness economy because we do see that consumers are placing just a higher value on fitness and wellness. And if you think about that, it's much broader than just Connected Fitness in the framing of cardio fitness for the most part. And while is not a nearly defined TAM today, there is third-party research overall that sizes, if you think about the entire wellness economy in totality, just within the US at over $2 trillion. And now that's a huge number. We don't plan to participate in all of those categories that fall within the wellness economy. But we are focusing on moving toward areas beyond connected cardio and toward categories that demonstrate scale and growth and proven results for our members.

    我想談談整體經濟、健康健身和健康經濟,因為我們確實看到消費者越來越重視健身和健康。仔細想想,它在很大程度上比「互聯健身」更廣泛地涵蓋了有氧健身的範疇。雖然目前還沒有一個明確的TAM(潛在市場規模),但第三方研究總體上表明,如果將整個健康經濟整體考慮在內,僅在美國,其規模就超過2兆美元。那可真是個龐大的數字。我們不打算參與健康經濟領域的所有類別。但我們正在專注於發展互聯有氧運動以外的領域,以及那些能夠展現規模、成長和為我們的會員帶來顯著成效的類別。

  • And you've heard Peter talk about some of these as we redefine our strategy, our market opportunity becomes much larger than connected cardio fitness. So you can think about cardio connected fitness as a big piece of us today, but our intent is to go well beyond that. And some of those categories, we've mentioned them before, but I'll just mention them one more time are in addition to cardio, we've got strength, we've got mental well-being, nutrition and hydration and sleep and recovery. And we'll continue to talk about these more as we execute on our strategy.

    你們也聽彼得談過其中的一些,隨著我們重新定義策略,我們的市場機會將遠大於互聯有氧健身。所以你可以把有氧運動和健身看作是當今我們生活中的重要部分,但我們的目標遠不止於此。有些類別我們之前已經提到過,但我再提一次,除了有氧運動之外,還有肌力訓練、心理健康、營養和水分補充、睡眠和恢復。我們會在執行戰略的過程中繼續深入探討這些問題。

  • Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And just to cover the commercial side of that equation. The overall gym market in the United States is considerably bigger than the in-home connected fitness market. And although our internal analysis suggests that it experienced a bit of a slowdown over the last month or two. If we look over the last couple of years, it's been continuing to grow, and we've experienced growth from the Precor side of our business. In some ways, I think we should be able to outpace the growth rate of the others due to the strategic benefits that I talked about earlier as well as the fact that we are refocusing on the commercial business unit and on Precor itself and recommitting to our commercial partners in that space.

    再來談談其中的商業因素。美國整體健身房市場規模遠大於家庭智慧健身市場。儘管我們的內部分析表明,在過去一兩個月裡,它的發展速度有所放緩。回顧過去幾年,它一直在持續成長,我們 Precor 業務方面也實現了成長。在某些方面,我認為我們應該能夠超越其他公司的成長速度,這得益於我之前提到的策略優勢,以及我們重新專注於商業業務部門和 Precor 公司本身,並重新致力於與我們在該領域的商業夥伴合作。

  • In terms of the metrics for success there, as you, I think, at this point, know about us overall as a management team, we are focused on growth, but the growth needs to be profitable. And so we are working with the commercial business unit to ensure that the plans that we develop results both in top line growth as well as increased margins associated with that business as well. And again, we feel really good about that category and in particular, our positioning in the category.

    就衡量成功的標準而言,我想,正如您目前對我們管理團隊的了解,我們專注於成長,但成長必須是有利可圖的。因此,我們正在與商業業務部門合作,以確保我們制定的計劃既能帶來營收成長,又能提高與該業務相關的利潤率。再次強調,我們對這個品類,尤其是我們在這個品類中的定位,感到非常滿意。

  • James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

    James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

  • Great. Thanks, Shwetha. Karen, next question, please.

    偉大的。謝謝你,Shwetha。凱倫,請問下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Douglas Anmuth, JPMorgan.

    道格拉斯·安穆斯,摩根大通。

  • Bryan Smilek - Analyst

    Bryan Smilek - Analyst

  • Great, thanks. It's Bryan Smilek on for Doug. Just two quick questions. Just thinking about the durability of double-digit sustainable Connected Fitness gross margins. Can you just help parse out the drivers between product mix shift, the cost savings, obviously, that you're enacting and I guess, conversely, but also similarly tied. You mentioned increased marketing spend in 2Q. Can you just shed more color on just overall brand positioning, where you're leaning into in terms of target demographics or service or channels as well for marketing? Thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。布萊恩·斯邁萊克代替道格上場。問兩個問題。想想互聯健身業務能否持續維持兩位數的毛利率。您能否幫忙分析產品組合變化、您正在實施的成本節約等因素之間的驅動因素,以及反過來,但又與之密切相關的因素。您提到第二季增加了行銷支出。能否更詳細地介紹整體品牌定位,例如在目標受眾、服務或行銷管道方面,你們的重點是什麼?謝謝。

  • Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

    Liz Coddington - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So in terms of gross margin, let me just -- I think your question was really kind of more about like long term and thinking about where we're going with gross margins. So if you look back at Q1, our to get to -- this is Connected Fitness gross margin specifically, was 6.9%. That was negatively impacted by the inventory accrual for Bike+ seat posts. And if you exclude that, our gross margin would have been 15.8%, and that's up 660 basis points year-over-year. Now if you look ahead to Q2, we're anticipating Connected Fitness products margin to improve compared to Q1, and that's driven by fixed cost leveraging with seasonally higher hardware sales and favorable mix of higher-margin products. And it's also worth noting that it's our highest quarter for seasonal promotions over the holidays. So even with that, we are expecting margins and margin improvement.

    是的。所以就毛利率而言,我想說的是——我認為你的問題實際上更多的是關於長期發展,以及我們未來的毛利率走向。所以回顧第一季度,我們達到的目標——具體來說是互聯健身的毛利率,為 6.9%。Bike+ 座桿的庫存積壓對此結果產生了負面影響。如果排除這部分,我們的毛利率將達到 15.8%,比上年同期成長 660 個基點。展望第二季度,我們預計互聯健身產品的利潤率將比第一季有所提高,這主要得益於固定成本槓桿作用、季節性硬體銷售成長以及高利潤率產品的有利組合。值得注意的是,這也是我們假日促銷活動最繁忙的季度。所以即便如此,我們仍然預期利潤率會有所提高。

  • We do anticipate our full year fiscal '26 Connected Fitness products gross margins to increase year-over-year. And then in terms of a long-term target, you mentioned double digits. Our goal is eventually to be in around the 20s range, and we intend to make progress towards that in the fiscal year. I do want to point out though, as we've talked about on many prior calls that we will continue to make trade-offs between gross margin and marketing spend based on the LTV to CAC efficiency that we see. Now Peter, do you want to talk a bit I can talk about marketing?

    我們預計 2026 財年全年互聯健身產品的毛利率將較去年同期成長。至於長期目標,您提到了兩位數的成長。我們的目標是最終達到 20% 左右,我們打算在本財年朝著這個目標取得進展。不過,我想指出的是,正如我們在之前的多次電話會議中討論的那樣,我們將繼續根據我們看到的客戶終身價值與客戶獲取成本的效率,在毛利率和營銷支出之間進行權衡。彼得,你想聊聊嗎?我可以談談行銷。

  • Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I mean on marketing spend, so for us, Q1 was a particularly low quarter. As Liz sort of intimated, we were we were sort of finishing up in many cases, the inventory that we had of our products. In fact, we went out of stock on the original bike in September in anticipation of the big launch. So there was no point, for example, in blowing it out on marketing when we knew we were doing great and running out of equipment. But as we look at Q2, we have a lot of messages to convey. And I'm so excited about those messages, right?

    我的意思是行銷支出方面,對我們來說,第一季是一個特別低的季度。正如莉茲所暗示的那樣,在許多情況下,我們正在清空我們現有的產品庫存。事實上,為了迎接即將到來的盛大發布,我們在9月就售罄了原版自行車的庫存。例如,當我們知道公司業績很好,而且設備也快用完了的時候,就沒有必要在行銷上投入大量資金。但展望第二季度,我們有很多訊息要傳達。我對這些資訊感到非常興奮,對吧?

  • Our launch of an entirely new product lineup with the cross-training series is a great reason for us to talk to our members and nonmembers alike. The introduction of Peloton IQ is it's a new concept, right, what we're trying to do in this space. And there's a lot of education that needs to take place. Then of course, we've got all of this additional distribution. So we want to make sure that we actually are driving people into those stores because you've got to provide the air cover in order for people to see that. That being said, we are, as always, very careful about our spend and pay close attention to our LTV to CAC and ensuring that we are acquiring members profitably.

    我們推出全新的交叉訓練系列產品,讓我們有充分的理由與會員和非會員交流。Peloton IQ 的推出是一個全新的概念,對吧,這也是我們在這個領域正在嘗試做的事情。還有很多教育工作要進行。當然,我們還有所有這些額外的分銷管道。所以我們希望確保我們確實能把人們吸引到這些商店裡,因為你必須提供良好的氛圍,人們才能看到這些。話雖如此,我們一如既往地對支出非常謹慎,密切關注客戶終身價值與客戶獲取成本之比,並確保我們以盈利的方式獲取會員。

  • So what you will see is an increase in our marketing spend in Q2. There will be a higher percentage of our spend on brand and education than you've seen historically as compared with performance marketing in the early parts of the quarter. And then as we get into the latter parts of the quarter, the holiday season itself provides quite a lot of momentum for us. And we shift over to much more efficient performance marketing, and then you should see that over the -- much of the balance of the year, where we'll basically reap the benefits of some of the investment we made in Q2. But all of that, as you can tell, is included in the guidance that we provided for Q2, which still has considerable profitability. So again, our discipline is something that we take pride and that is certainly the case in the marketing area.

    因此,您將會看到我們在第二季的行銷支出增加。本季初,我們在品牌和教育方面的支出比例將比以往更高,而效果行銷方面的支出比例則會更低。然後,隨著季度後半段的到來,假期本身會給我們帶來很大的動力。我們將轉向更有效率的效果行銷,然後在今年剩餘的大部分時間裡,您應該會看到這一點,屆時我們基本上將收穫我們在第二季度進行的一些投資的成果。但正如你所看到的,所有這些都包含在我們對第二季度的業績指引中,該季度仍然具有相當可觀的盈利能力。所以,再次強調,我們的紀律是我們引以為傲的,在行銷領域更是如此。

  • James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

    James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

  • Great Thanks, Peter. Karen, maybe we have time for one more question.

    非常感謝,彼得。凱倫,或許我們還有時間再問一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Susan Anderson, Canacor.

    蘇珊安德森,卡納科爾公司。

  • Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

    Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, good evening, thanks for taking my questions. I guess maybe just to follow up on all of the additional wellness offerings you guys added to the subscription. Just curious if you've seen an uptick in uses of those services, yes, it still may be a little early. And then maybe also if you can give an update on how the new certified refurbished equipment program is going?

    您好,晚上好,感謝您回答我的問題。我想問一下,你們在訂閱服務中添加的所有其他健康養生項目怎麼樣?我只是好奇你是否注意到這些服務的使用量增加,是的,現在下結論可能還為時過早。另外,您能否也介紹一下新的認證翻新設備計畫的進度?

  • Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So let me start with the usage point. It's actually been really -- that's been really positive. So we mentioned earlier that we've had 500,000 of our members use Club Peloton already. We're also seeing more people taking workouts from our home screen, and let me explain why that matters. For a lot of our members, they kind of stay with the same old, same old. They go to the classes page and go to their comfort zone. But when people are taking work out from the home screen, it means that the recommendations that we're delivering with Peloton IQ are starting to hit home.

    那麼,就讓我先從使用方面說起。實際上,這真的是一件非常正面的事情。我們之前提到過,我們已經有 50 萬名會員使用 Club Peloton 了。我們還發現越來越多的人透過手機主螢幕進行鍛煉,讓我解釋一下這為什麼重要。對我們許多成員來說,他們總是墨守成規。他們進入課程頁面,然後回到自己的舒適圈。但當人們把鍛鍊從主畫面轉移到其他應用程式時,就意味著我們透過 Peloton IQ 提供的建議開始真正發揮作用了。

  • We've also seen a meaningful increase in strength workouts. And that's based on both our understanding of the science and what's important to our members in terms of their overall health as well as the personalized programs that we've developed for people who started to set goals around building strength and increasing longevity.

    我們也看到肌力訓練的數量顯著增加。這既基於我們對科學的理解,也基於我們對會員整體健康重要性的考量,以及我們為那些開始設定增強體質和延長壽命目標的人們所製定的個人化方案。

  • The most important point is that if we look at the month of October, every kind of usage on a per member basis is up. And what I mean by that is like whether you're talking about workouts in that month, total workouts or the total workout days or total workout time, all those things are up, whereas historically, we typically see workouts go down from September to October.

    最重要的一點是,如果我們看一下 10 月的數據,就會發現每位會員的各種使用量都有上升。我的意思是,無論是當月的鍛鍊次數、總鍛鍊次數、總鍛鍊天數還是總鍛鍊時間,所有這些指標都在上升,而從歷史數據來看,我們通常會看到鍛鍊次數從 9 月到 10 月下降。

  • So we think our investments, in particular, AI, but also the investments we're making in the community on the software side are making a difference. In terms of the -- I think Susan, your question was about the repowered program. When you talked about a certified refurb program. And what I'll note right now is that the repowered program actually doesn't do certified. It is, by the way, an awesome idea. And one of the things that is certainly in our consideration set to actually provide certification because I think trust in this space is one of the areas that we can help to address. But so far, what we've been doing is solving a sort of more basic set of problems.

    所以我們認為,我們的投資,特別是人工智慧的投資,以及我們在軟體方面對社群的投資,正在產生影響。關於——我想蘇珊,你的問題是關於重新開發的程序的。你當時談到了認證翻新計劃。我現在要指出的是,重新升級的程序實際上並沒有進行認證。順便說一句,這真是個絕妙的主意。而提供認證無疑是我們正在考慮的事情之一,因為我認為信任問題是我們可以幫助解決的領域之一。但到目前為止,我們所做的,還是解決一些比較基礎的問題。

  • One is creating a trusted marketplace to match sellers and buyers locally, but also to be able to give them the option to have a professional come and do the pickup and the delivery so that you don't have to go into somebody else's house. if you don't want to or have somebody come into your house if you don't want someone there. So that's been the focus so far for repowered. It's still early days, but we're seeing from what we're being told, good performance from the partner that we're working with on that program, and it's scaling as we expected, but stay posted for more cool stuff, and thanks for the idea.

    一方面,要創造一個值得信賴的市場,讓本地的賣家和買家進行匹配;另一方面,還要讓他們可以選擇讓專業人員上門取貨和送貨,這樣就不用自己進別人家,或者不想讓別人進自己家。所以,這就是目前為止 repowered 的工作重點。現在還處於早期階段,但據我們了解,與我們合作開展該專案的伙伴表現良好,專案規模也如我們預期般擴大,敬請期待更多精彩內容,感謝您的想法。

  • Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

    Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks so much for all the details.

    非常感謝您提供的所有細節。

  • Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Peter Stern - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Why don't I put this out at this point with thanks, first of all, for everyone who joined today's call. and also some encouragement for you to tune into some fun class moments that we have coming up. For Thanksgiving, we will have a veritable buffet of new live and on-demand classes available including a live turkey burn ride with Robin Arzon, alive Turkey burn run with Kristen Ferguson and the feast, a live full body strength class with six of our strength instructors. And coming soon, Emma Lovewell will release her third installment of her popular Crusher core program, and we recently launched a podcast move for life hosted by instructor Matt Wipers and Dr. Kavita Patel that's focused on longevity, and it's available on YouTube.

    首先,我要感謝今天所有參加電話會議的朋友們。同時,也鼓勵大家關注我們接下來一些精彩的課堂環節。感恩節期間,我們將推出一系列全新的直播和點播課程,包括 Robin Arzon 的火雞燃脂騎行直播、Kristen Ferguson 的火雞燃脂跑步直播,以及由我們六位力量教練帶來的全身力量訓練直播課程“盛宴”。不久之後,Emma Lovewell 將發布她廣受歡迎的 Crusher 核心訓練計劃的第三部分;此外,我們最近推出了一檔由教練 Matt Wipers 和 Kavita Patel 博士主持的播客節目“Move for Life”,該節目專注於長壽,可在 YouTube 上收聽。

  • And for the investment professionals and analysts out there, our codeveloped collection with the hospital for special surgery on desk workers strength and mobility was made for you. With that, we look forward to seeing you on the leaderboard and wish you a happy and healthy holiday season.

    對於投資專業人士和分析師來說,我們與特殊外科醫院共同開發的針對辦公室工作人員的力量和活動能力的系列產品正是為您量身打造的。在此,我們期待在排行榜上見到你,並祝你假期快樂健康。

  • James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

    James Marsh - Senior Vice President & Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與,現在可以斷開連結了。