派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Fiscal 2020 Second Quarter Earnings Conference call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾 2020 財年第二季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議可能會被錄音。（操作員說明）

I'd now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ms. Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人，財務長 Cathy Suever 女士。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, Liz. Good morning, and welcome to Parker Hannifin's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2020 Earnings Release Teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks.

謝謝你，莉茲。早安，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾 2020 財年第二季財報發布電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯 (Tom Williams)；李‧班克斯 (Lee Banks) 總裁兼營運長。

Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for 1 year following today's call.

今天的簡報幻燈片以及音訊網路廣播重播將在今天的電話會議後一年內透過公司的投資者資訊網站 phstock.com 提供。

On Slide #2, you'll find the company's safe harbor disclosure statements addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's materials and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com.

在投影片#2 上，您會發現該公司的安全港揭露聲明涉及前瞻性聲明以及非公認會計準則財務指標。今天早上的資料中包含了所有非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表，並且也發佈在 Parker 的網站 phstock.com 上。

Today's agenda appears on Slide #3. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing highlights from the second quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's second quarter performance, together with the revised guidance for the full year fiscal 2020. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session.

今天的議程出現在投影片 #3 上。首先，我們的董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯將介紹第二季的亮點。根據 Tom 的評論，我將回顧公司第二季的業績，以及修訂後的 2020 財年全年指引。然後，湯姆將提供一些總結性意見，我們將開始問答環節。

Please refer now to Slide #4, and Tom will get us started.

現在請參閱幻燈片#4，湯姆將帶我們開始。

Thank you, Cathy. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the call, and thanks for your interest in Parker. Let me start with some strategic highlights. First of all, we are very pleased to report that despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, our margins and our cash flow are at all-time highs relative to previous downturns. I think the best way to compare this, the best way to do it apples-to-apples, is look at the base business without LORD and Exotic and compare it to prior downturns.

謝謝你，凱西。大家早上好，歡迎致電，感謝您對 Parker 的關注。讓我從一些策略要點開始。首先，我們非常高興地報告，儘管宏觀經濟條件充滿挑戰，但與先前的低迷時期相比，我們的利潤率和現金流量仍處於歷史最高水平。我認為比較這一點的最好方法，最好的同類比較方法，是看看沒有 Lord 和 Exotic 的基礎業務，並將其與之前的低迷時期進行比較。

When you look at our second quarter FY '20 adjusted operating margin without acquisitions, that came in at 16.1%. This compares to our previous best recession performance, which was in FY '16, and that Q2 adjusted operating margins were 13.5%. Both of these recessions had about similar organic sales declines, and this represents a 260 basis point improvement comparing that to our best previous recession performance. Really a remarkable performance, and really, my thanks to everybody around the world for doing such a great job.

當你看到我們 20 財年第二季調整後的營運利潤率（不包括收購）時，您會發現該利潤率為 16.1%。相較之下，我們先前在經濟衰退期間的最佳表現是在 16 財年，第二季調整後的營業利益率為 13.5%。這兩次經濟衰退都有類似的有機銷售下降，與我們之前最好的經濟衰退表現相比，這意味著改善了 260 個基點。這確實是一場非凡的表演，我真的感謝世界各地的每個人所做的如此出色的工作。

In addition to the margin improvement, cash flow from operating activities was an all-time year-to-date Q2 record. This performance demonstrates that we are building a more resilient business that is poised for accelerated earnings growth as the market turns. Strong FY '20 margin performance and cash flow generation, so far, are really a reflection of the improvements driven by The Win Strategy and the strengthening of our portfolio by buying companies that are accretive to growth and to margins. So we are excited about where we are, and we're excited about where we're going to go in the future.

除了利潤率改善外，第二季營運活動產生的現金流量也創歷史新高。這項業績表明，我們正在打造更具彈性的業務，並準備好隨著市場的轉變而加速獲利成長。到目前為止，20 財年強勁的利潤表現和現金流產生確實反映了「獲勝策略」推動的改進以及透過收購可促進成長和利潤的公司來加強我們的投資組合。因此，我們對我們所處的位置感到興奮，並對未來的發展方向感到興奮。

Shifting to safety. We had a 25% reduction in recordable incidents in Q2. Really making great progress there. My thanks again to everybody for their effort on this and their dedication to safety. Our recordable incident rate, and what that is, for people that aren't familiar with it, that is the number of safety incidents we have per 100 team members. That is now top quartile versus our proxy peers. And there's a very strong linkage. You've heard me talk about this, between safety and business performance. If you were to apply our safety metrics and our financial metrics, you'll see them moving in tandem in a positive direction.

轉向安全。第二季可記錄事件減少了 25%。那裡確實取得了很大的進步。我再次感謝大家為此付出的努力和對安全的奉獻。我們的可記錄事故率，對於不熟悉的人來說，就是每 100 名團隊成員發生的安全事故數。與我們的代理商同行相比，這現在是前四分之一。並且有非常強的聯繫。您已經聽過我談論安全和業務績效之間的問題。如果您應用我們的安全指標和財務指標，您會看到它們朝著正面的方向協同發展。

So some summary comments on Q2. Sales were our second quarter record as acquisition revenue offset soft organic sales. Organic sales declined as we expected, with improvement in international organic sales versus our guide. The 737 MAX issues impacted our aerospace business as Q2 airframe and engine orders were slowed in advance of the production pause. Strong adjusted EBITDA margins were significantly higher than they were during the last recession. We came in at Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5%. Again, really strong performance. Earnings in the quarter were excellent, and adjusted EPS exceeded expectations.

所以對第二季的一些總結評論。由於收購收入抵消了疲軟的有機銷售，銷售額創下了我們第二季的最高紀錄。正如我們預期的那樣，有機銷售額下降，但國際有機銷售額與我們的指導相比有所改善。737 MAX 問題影響了我們的航空航天業務，因為第二季度機身和發動機訂單在生產暫停之前放緩。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率大幅高於上次經濟衰退期間的水準。第二季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 18.5%。再次，性能非常強勁。該季度獲利出色，調整後每股收益超出預期。

Order rates in the quarter continued to be negative, impacting organic growth. And the portfolio additions we have made are certainly going to help our organic growth over time. We've acquired businesses that are more resilient with higher organic growth rates than legacy Parker. We're well positioned for excellent performance in the second half of FY 2020 and beyond that.

本季的訂單率持續為負，影響了有機成長。隨著時間的推移，我們增加的投資組合肯定有助於我們的有機成長。我們收購的業務比傳統帕克公司更具彈性，有機成長率更高。我們已做好準備，將在 2020 財年下半年及以後實現出色的業績。

I want to move now to year-to-date cash flow. You've heard me talk about how this is such a strategic priority for us. We want to be great generators and deployers of cash to drive excellent returns for our shareholders. We've achieved the best-ever cash flow from operations of any first half in our history. And given the current market conditions, that's really commendable. Free cash flow to sales is above 10%, and we're expecting to achieve our 19th consecutive year of cash from operating activities as a percent of sales in excess of 10% for FY '20. The year-to-date free cash flow conversion was excellent at 130%.

我現在想談談年初至今的現金流。你們聽我說過這對我們來說是一個戰略重點。我們希望成為偉大的現金創造者和部署者，為股東帶來豐厚的回報。我們實現了有史以來最好的上半年營運現金流。考慮到當前的市場狀況，這確實值得稱讚。銷售自由現金流超過 10%，我們預期 20 財年經營活動現金佔銷售額的百分比將連續 19 年超過 10%。今年迄今的自由現金流轉換率為 130%，非常出色。

Moving now to the outlook. We're increasing EPS guidance for FY '20 on roughly flat sales to the prior year. This reflects strong Q2 performance, which is being offset by the 737 MAX, and slightly weaker organic sales in the second half versus our prior guide. Our guidance assumes no additional 737 MAX sales for the balance of FY '20.

現在轉向展望。由於銷售額與前一年基本持平，我們提高了 20 財年的每股盈餘指引。這反映了第二季度的強勁表現（被 737 MAX 所抵消），以及下半年的有機銷售與我們之前的指導相比略有疲軟。我們的指導假設 20 財年餘下的時間不會有額外的 737 MAX 銷量。

We are very excited about the future. We feel we're well positioned for growth with excellent margins and cash flow as the macro conditions improve. Some of the factors that are driving this feeling of confidence would be, first, launching of The Win Strategy 3.0, which is going to drive a further step-change in the performance of the company, really building on the momentum from the previous updates that we've made to The Win Strategy.

我們對未來感到非常興奮。我們認為，隨著宏觀環境的改善，我們已經做好了成長的準備，擁有出色的利潤率和現金流。推動這種信心的一些因素是，首先，獲勝策略 3.0 的推出，這將推動公司業績進一步發生重大變化，真正建立在先前更新的勢頭之上。我們制定了製勝策略。

Second would be the portfolio strengthening that we've done through the strategic acquisitions that have come on board. We're very happy with how LORD and Exotic integrations are progressing, and we can comment more about that in the Q&A. And we recently had the leadership teams for both businesses here at headquarters talk about the -- incorporating The Win Strategy 3.0, their integration plans. It was a great session. A lot of good teamwork there.

其次是我們透過策略性收購來加強投資組合。我們對 Lord 和 Exotic 整合的進展感到非常滿意，我們可以在問答中對此進行更多評論。最近，我們在總部與兩家公司的領導團隊討論了整合獲勝策略 3.0 的整合計畫。這是一次很棒的會議。那裡有很多良好的團隊合作。

And then third would be the launch of the purpose statement, which is enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. This statement is a real source of pride for our organization. And we recognize that it takes being a top-quartile performing company to live up to that higher purpose.

第三是發布目的聲明，旨在實現工程突破，從而創造更美好的明天。這句話是我們組織真正的驕傲。我們意識到，只有成為一家業績排名前四分之一的公司才能實現這一更高的目標。

Parker's transforming as evidenced by the higher level of performance that we're doing in a very difficult part of the business cycle, with lots of opportunities to drive earnings growth beyond FY '20.

Parker 正在轉型，我們在商業週期非常困難的階段取得了更高的業績水平，並且有很多機會在 20 財年之後推動獲利成長。

Switching to the next slide. You'll see a reminder of our winning formula, what we have characterized as our competitive differentiators. And I've talked about these before, so I'm not going to say highlight each one specific. I would just tell you this is -- this listing, in aggregate, is what makes us special. This is why customers come to us, and this is why shareholders should think about investing in Parker.

切換到下一張投影片。您將會看到我們的致勝秘訣，也就是我們的競爭優勢。我之前已經討論過這些，所以我不會具體強調每一項。我只想告訴你，總的來說，這個清單讓我們與眾不同。這就是客戶來到我們這裡的原因，也是股東應該考慮投資 Parker 的原因。

If I had to reference one, in particular, of these competitive differentiators, I would point out Win Strategy 3.0 and what we're -- the momentum and the performance enhancements that it's going to create over time. And a lot more discussions will happen on that as we move forward. So my thanks to all the global team members for their continued and dedicated effort in creating a top-quartile company.

如果我必須特別提到這些競爭優勢中的一個，我會指出獲勝策略 3.0 以及我們的內容——隨著時間的推移，它將創造的動力和性能增強。隨著我們的前進，將會有更多的討論發生。因此，我感謝所有全球團隊成員為創建頂尖公司所付出的持續和奉獻的努力。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Cathy for more details on the quarter and the guidance.

然後，我會將其交還給凱茜，以獲取有關本季度和指導的更多詳細資訊。

Okay. Thanks, Tom. I'd like you to now refer to Slide #6. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were $2.54 compared to $2.51 for the same quarter a year ago. Adjustments from the fiscal year '20 as reported results totaled $0.97, including before-tax amounts of business realignment charges of $0.08, acquisition costs to achieve of $0.05 and acquisition transaction expenses of $1.14. These were offset by the tax effect of these adjustments of $0.30.

好的。謝謝，湯姆。我希望您現在參考投影片 #6。這張投影片展示了第二季報告和調整後的每股盈餘。第二季調整後每股收益為 2.54 美元，去年同期為 2.51 美元。報告結果對 20 財年的調整總計 0.97 美元，其中包括 0.08 美元的稅前業務重組費用、0.05 美元的收購成本以及 1.14 美元的收購交易費用。這些調整被 0.30 美元的稅收影響所抵消。

Prior year second quarter earnings per share had been adjusted by $0.15, the details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures.

去年第二季每股收益調整了 0.15 美元，詳細資訊包含在非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表中。

On Slide #7, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $2.51 to the second quarter of fiscal -- for the second quarter of fiscal 2019, to $2.54 for the second quarter of this year.

在投影片 #7 上，您會發現從調整後每股收益（2019 財年第二季的調整後每股收益 2.51 美元）到今年第二季的 2.54 美元的重要組成部分。

Starting with the net decrease of $0.13 in segment operating income. For legacy Parker, a $260 million decline in sales contributed to a $0.34 reduction in operating income. The legacy Parker teams did a good job of controlling costs on this lower volume by sustaining a decremental margin of 23% for the quarter. The acquisitions contributed $0.21, partially offsetting this reduction. Lower corporate G&A contributed $0.16 due to gains this year compared to losses last year on market-adjusted investments tied to deferred compensation. Incremental interest expense on the debt borrowed for the acquisitions resulted in a $0.20 year-over-year decline in the current earnings per share. Lower other expense of $0.07 benefited from interest income earned on the bond proceeds prior to the closing of the LORD acquisition. We gained $0.10 from a lower tax rate, primarily due to favorable discrete tax benefits. And a lower share count benefited the current quarter $0.03.

首先，分部營業收入淨減少 0.13 美元。對於老派克來說，銷售額下降了 2.6 億美元，導致營業收入減少了 0.34 美元。Parker 的傳統團隊在本季保持了 23% 的遞減利潤率，在控制較低產量的成本方面做得很好。收購貢獻了 0.21 美元，部分抵消了這一減少。由於與遞延薪酬相關的經市場調整的投資與去年的損失相比，今年的收益與去年的損失相比，企業 G&A 貢獻減少了 0.16 美元。為收購而藉入的債務增加的利息支出導致當期每股收益年減 0.20 美元。其他費用減少了 0.07 美元，這得益於在 Lord 收購完成之前透過債券收益賺取的利息收入。我們從較低的稅率中獲得了 0.10 美元的收益，這主要是由於有利的離散稅收優惠。股票數量減少使本季收益 0.03 美元。

Slide #8 shows total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the second quarter. Organic sales decreased year-over-year by 7.1%, and currency had a negative impact of 0.4%. These declines were more than offset by the positive impact of 8.2% from the acquisitions. Total adjusted segment operating margins were 15.8%, compared to 16.6% last year. This 80-basis-point decline equaled the incremental amortization expense from the acquisitions. With the help of The Win Strategy tools, the legacy Parker businesses managed to achieve good decremental margins of 23% on their lower sales volume.

第 8 張投影片顯示了派克第二季的總銷售額和部門營業利潤率。有機銷售額年減 7.1%，匯率帶來 0.4% 的負面影響。這些下降被收購帶來的 8.2% 的正面影響所抵消。調整後分部營業利益率為 15.8%，而去年為 16.6%。80 個基點的下降相當於收購帶來的增量攤銷費用。在獲勝策略工具的幫助下，派克傳統業務在銷量較低的情況下成功實現了 23% 的利潤下降。

On Slide 9, we're showing the impact LORD and Exotic had on the second quarter fiscal year '20. These results reflect a partial quarter of contribution from LORD since the acquisition closed on October 28, and a full quarter of Exotic, which closed on September 16. Sales from the acquisitions during the quarter were $286 million, and operating income on an adjusted basis was $36 million during this stub period.

在投影片 9 上，我們展示了 Lord 和 Exotic 對 20 財年第二季的影響。這些結果反映了自 10 月 28 日收購結束以來，LORD 的部分季度貢獻，以及 9 月 16 日結束的 Exotic 的整個季度貢獻。本季收購帶來的銷售額為 2.86 億美元，調整後的營業收入為 3,600 萬美元。

Moving to Slide #10, I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the second quarter, North American organic sales were down 8.5%, while acquisitions contributed 7.3% to the segment. Operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis was 15.4% of sales versus 16% in the prior year. Incremental amortization of 75 basis points in the quarter more than accounted for the change in margins. North America's legacy businesses generated a good decremental margin of 24%, reflecting the hard work of diligent cost containment and productivity improvements, together with the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives.

轉向幻燈片#10，我將討論業務部門，從北美多元化工業開始。第二季度，北美有機銷售額下降 8.5%，而收購對該領域的貢獻為 7.3%。調整後第二季營業利益率為銷售額的 15.4%，而去年同期為 16%。本季 75 個基點的增量攤銷超過了利潤率的變化。北美的傳統業務產生了 24% 的良好遞減利潤，反映了努力控製成本和提高生產力的努力，以及我們的雙贏策略舉措的影響。

Moving to the Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide #11. Organic sales for the second quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 9.4%. Acquisitions contributed 4.5% to the segment, and currency had a negative impact of 1.4%. Operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis was 14.6% of sales versus 15.7% in the prior year. Incremental amortization was 30 basis points in the quarter. The legacy businesses generated a very good decremental margin of 23%, which was partially offset by contributions from the acquisitions.

前往投影片 #11 上的多元化工業國際部分。工業國際部門第二季的有機銷售額下降了 9.4%。收購對該部門的貢獻為 4.5%，貨幣的負面影響為 1.4%。調整後第二季營業利益率為銷售額的 14.6%，而去年同期為 15.7%。本季增量攤銷為 30 個基點。傳統業務的利潤率下降了 23%，但部分被收購的貢獻所抵消。

I'll now move to Slide #12 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Aerospace Systems sales increased $111 million, or 18% from acquisitions, and 1.3% from organic sales. Growth in military OEM and commercial aftermarket sales were largely offset by lower commercial OEM sales and military aftermarket sales. Operating margin for the second quarter was 18.5% of sales versus 19.7% last year. Incremental amortization expense of 160 basis points more than accounted for the change in margins. Good margin performance from Exotic and hard work by the teams on productivity improvements helped contribute to the strong performance in the quarter.

現在我將轉到第 12 張投影片來回顧航空航天系統部分。航空航天系統銷售額增加了 1.11 億美元，即 18% 來自收購，1.3% 來自有機銷售。軍事原始設備製造商和商業售後市場銷售的成長在很大程度上被商業原始設備製造商銷售和軍事售後市場銷售的下降所抵消。第二季營業利益率為銷售額的 18.5%，去年同期為 19.7%。增量攤銷費用比利潤率變動多出 160 個基點。Exotic 良好的利潤率表現以及團隊在生產力提高方面的努力工作為本季度的強勁業績做出了貢獻。

On Slide #13, we report cash flow from operating activities. Year-to-date, cash flow from operating activities was $826 million or 12.1% of sales. This compares to 10.7% of sales for the same period last year after last year's number is adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution. That's a year-over-year increase of 11%. Free cash flow for the current quarter was 10.4% of sales, and the conversion rate to net income was 130%.

在投影片 #13 中，我們報告了經營活動產生的現金流量。年初至今，經營活動現金流量為 8.26 億美元，佔銷售額的 12.1%。相較之下，根據 2 億美元的可自由支配退休金繳款對去年的數字進行調整後，去年同期銷售額佔 10.7%。較去年同期成長 11%。本季自由現金流佔銷售額的10.4%，淨利潤轉換率為130%。

Moving to Slide #14, we show the details of order rates by segment. As a reminder, these orders results exclude acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a 3-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Continued declines in the industrial markets resulted in total orders dropping 3%. This year-over-year decline is made up of a 7% decline from Diversified Industrial North American orders and a 6% decline from Diversified Industrial International orders, offset by a positive 12% increase from Aerospace Systems orders.

轉向幻燈片#14，我們按細分顯示訂單率的詳細資訊。提醒一下，這些訂單結果不包括收購、資產剝離和貨幣。多元化工業部門採用 3 個月滾動平均值進行報告，而航空航天系統則以 12 個月滾動平均值進行報告。工業市場持續下滑導致訂單總量下降 3%。年比下降的原因是，多元化工業北美訂單下降了 7%，多元化工業國際訂單下降了 6%，但航空航天系統訂單增加了 12%，抵消了這一影響。

Moving to Slide #15. The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year 2020 is outlined. This guidance has been revised to align to current macro conditions and includes the impact of LORD and Exotic acquisitions. Guidance is being provided on both an as reported and an adjusted basis. Total sales for the year with the help from acquisitions are now expected to be flat compared to prior year. Anticipated full year organic change at the midpoint is a decline of 6.4%. Currency is expected to have a negative 0.5% impact on sales. And acquisitions will add 6.9% to the current year. We have calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended December 31, 2019, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remaining quarters of fiscal year 2020. Considering the uncertainty of the regulatory clearance of the 737 MAX, we have now excluded all 737 MAX sales for the balance of the fiscal year 2020.

轉到投影片 #15。概述了 2020 財年全年獲利指引。該指引已進行修訂，以適應當前的宏觀條件，並包括了 Lord 和 Exotic 收購的影響。正在根據報告和調整後的基礎上提供指導。在收購的幫助下，今年的總銷售額預計將與去年持平。預計全年有機變化中位數下降 6.4%。預計匯率將對銷售額產生 0.5% 的負面影響。收購將比今年增加 6.9%。我們計算了截至 2019 年 12 月 31 日的季度貨幣對即期匯率的影響，並在我們估計 2020 財年剩餘季度的同比影響時保持這些匯率穩定。考慮到 737 MAX 監管許可的不確定性，我們現在已排除 2020 財年剩餘的所有 737 MAX 銷售。

For total Parker, as reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.1% and 15.5%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 16.0% and 16.4%. We have not adjusted the incremental amortization expense of approximately $100 million we will incur in fiscal year '20 as a result of the 2 acquisitions.

就 Parker 整體而言，據報告，分部營業利潤率預計在 15.1% 至 15.5% 之間，而調整後的分部營業利潤率預計在 16.0% 至 16.4% 之間。我們尚未調整因兩筆收購而將在 20 財年產生的約 1 億美元的增量攤提費用。

The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 22.5%. The second quarter tax rate was favorably impacted by discrete items, which we don't forecast for the balance of the year. We continue to anticipate a tax rate from continuing operations of 23.3% for the remainder of the year. For the full year, the guidance range for earnings per share on an as reported basis is now $8.78 to $9.38, or $9.08 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is now $10.25 to $10.85 or $10.55 at the midpoint.

全年有效稅率預計為22.5%。第二季的稅率受到離散項目的有利影響，我們預計今年剩餘時間不會發生這種情況。我們繼續預計今年剩餘時間內持續經營業務的稅率為 23.3%。就全年而言，按報告計算的每股收益指引範圍目前為 8.78 美元至 9.38 美元，中間值為 9.08 美元。在調整後每股收益的基礎上，指導範圍目前為 10.25 美元至 10.85 美元，中間值為 10.55 美元。

The adjustments to the as reported forecast made in this guidance include business realignment expenses of approximately $40 million for the full year fiscal 2020, with the associated savings projected to be $15 million this year. Synergy savings from CLARCOR are still estimated to achieve a run rate of $160 million by the end of fiscal year '20, which represents an incremental $35 million of year-end savings.

本指南中對報告預測所做的調整包括 2020 財年全年約 4,000 萬美元的業務調整費用，預計今年相關節省額為 1,500 萬美元。預計到 20 財年末，CLARCOR 的協同節省仍可實現 1.6 億美元的運行率，這意味著年終節省將增加 3,500 萬美元。

In addition, guidance on an adjusted basis excludes $27 million of integration costs to achieve for LORD and Exotic, and $185 million of onetime acquisition-related expenses. LORD and Exotic are expected to achieve synergy savings of $18 million this fiscal year. A reconciliation and further details of these adjustments can be found in the appendix to this morning's slides.

此外，調整後的指引不包括LORD和Exotic實現的2,700萬美元的整合成本，以及1.85億美元的一次性收購相關費用。Lord 和 Exotic 預計本財年將實現 1800 萬美元的協同節省。這些調整的協調和進一步細節可以在今天早上幻燈片的附錄中找到。

Savings from all business realignment and acquisition costs to achieve are fully reflected in both the as reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison.

所有業務重組和收購成本實現的節省都充分反映在報告的和調整後的營業利潤指導範圍中。我們要求您繼續使用調整後的指導來發布您的估計，以便提供更一致的同比比較。

Some additional key assumptions for full year 2020 guidance at midpoint are: Sales are divided 48%, second half, 52 -- sorry, 48% first half, 52% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is split 49% first half, 51% second half. Adjusted EPS, second half is -- first half, second half is divided 50%-50%. Third quarter fiscal 2020 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.36 per share at the midpoint, and this excludes $18 million of projected business realignment expenses, $7 million of integration costs to achieve, and $19 million of onetime acquisition-related expenses.

2020 年全年指引的一些額外關鍵假設包括：銷售額分為 48%、下半年、52——抱歉，上半年 48%，下半年 52%。調整後分部營業收入上半年佔 49%，下半年佔 51%。調整後的EPS，下半年是－上半年、下半年分成50%-50%。2020 財年第三季調整後每股盈餘預計為每股 2.36 美元，其中不包括 1,800 萬美元的預期業務調整費用、700 萬美元的整合成本以及 1,900 萬美元的一次性收購相關費用。

On Slide 16, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of revised fiscal year 2020 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.55 per share at the midpoint compared to the prior guidance of $10.50 per share. During the second quarter, stronger-than-guided sales, together with meaningfully higher segment operating margins from the industrial segment, generated a net $0.17 operating income beat. Strong gains in market-adjusted investments tied to deferred compensation, and lower-than-guided interest expense, contributed a benefit of $0.08. And favorable discrete tax benefits during the quarter helped to contribute $0.07 totaling to a $0.32 EPS beat in the quarter. Updates to the second half guide result in a $0.04 increase in operating income, offset by a $0.30 negative impact to operating income from the elimination of 737 MAX shipments in the second half. Updates to the below-the-line items result in a net $0.01 decline. This results in a net $0.05 increase to the fiscal 2020 full year guided earnings per share at the midpoint.

在投影片 16 上，您會發現修訂後的 2020 財年調整後每股收益指引的主要組成部分在中點處調整為每股 10.55 美元，而先前的指引為每股 10.50 美元。第二季度，強於指導的銷售，加上工業部門顯著提高的部門營業利潤率，產生了 0.17 美元的淨營業收入。與遞延薪酬相關的市場調整投資的強勁收益以及低於指導的利息支出貢獻了 0.08 美元的收益。本季有利的離散稅收優惠總共貢獻了 0.07 美元，使本季每股收益超出了 0.32 美元。下半年指南的更新導致營業收入增加 0.04 美元，但被下半年取消 737 MAX 出貨量對營業收入造成的 0.30 美元負面影響所抵消。線下項目的更新導致淨價下降 0.01 美元。這導致 2020 財年全年指引每股收益中點淨增加 0.05 美元。

On Slide 17, we show the impact the acquisitions will have on both an as reported and adjusted basis for the full year. On an adjusted basis, the acquisitions lower operating margin to 16.2% for total Parker from 16.6% for legacy Parker, impacted by the $100 million or 70 basis points of full year FY '20 incremental amortization expense. For the adjusted EBITDA margins, the acquisitions provide 50 basis points of improvement, moving from 18.1% for legacy Parker to 18.6% for total Parker.

在投影片 17 中，我們展示了收購對全年報告和調整後基礎的影響。經調整後，受 20 財年全年增量攤提費用 1 億美元或 70 個基點的影響，收購將 Parker 整體營業利潤率從傳統 Parker 的 16.6% 降至 16.2%。對於調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率而言，收購提高了 50 個基點，從傳統 Parker 的 18.1% 提高到 Parker 整體的 18.6%。

If you'll now go to Slide 18, I'll turn it back to Tom for summary comments.

如果您現在轉到幻燈片 18，我會將其轉回給 Tom 以獲取摘要評論。

Thanks, Cathy. We're pleased with the continued progress. We are performing well for this downturn, as demonstrated by our cash flow performance and our ability to raise the floor on margins. We're well on our way to delivering top-quartile financial performance as a company.

謝謝，凱茜。我們對持續的進展感到高興。我們在這次經濟低迷時期表現良好，我們的現金流量表現和提高利潤率下限的能力就證明了這一點。作為一家公司，我們正在努力實現前四分之一的財務表現。

I just want to remind people what we're trying to drive to as far as we're laser-focused on our FY '23 targets, and those are sales growth at 150 basis points greater than global industrial production growth, segment operating margins at 19%, EBITDA margins at 20%, free cash flow conversion greater than 100%. And those would all culminate in driving an EPS CAGR over that period of time, of 10% plus.

我只是想提醒人們，只要我們專注於 23 財年的目標，我們正在努力實現什麼目標，這些目標是銷售增長比全球工業生產增長高 150 個基點，部門營業利潤率為19%，EBITDA 利潤率20%，自由現金流轉換大於100%。這些最終將使 EPS 複合年增長率在這段時間內達到 10% 以上。

So thanks, again, to the global team, everybody around the world for all your hard work. And with that, I'll hand it over to Liz to start the Q&A portion of the call.

再次感謝全球團隊以及世界各地的每個人的辛勤工作。接下來，我會交給 Liz 來開始通話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Baird 的線路。

Yes. Maybe just very quickly, some clarification on what's embedded at segment level for organic growth, especially in your industrial business?

是的。也許很快就可以澄清細分市場層面的有機成長的內容，特別是在您的工業業務中？

Mig, it's Tom. So what we assumed for -- I'm just going to give you for the second half, what the new guide, was North America at minus 7, international at minus 12, aerospace at minus 0.5, gets to the second half at a minus 7.5. And that compares to the prior guide was minus 6. Big difference there being a little bit of weakness in North America, but the big difference was a shift in the MAX.

米格，是湯姆。所以我們的假設是－我只想告訴你們下半年的情況，新的指引是，北美為負7，國際為負12，航空航太為負0.5，下半年為負7.5。與先前的指南相比，這一數字為負 6。北美地區存在一些弱點，但最大的差異是 MAX 的變化。

Understood. Then if I may, on international, I think you said negative 12 for the second half?

明白了。那麼請容許我在國際比賽中，我想你說的是下半場負12？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

If I'm comparing that with what you've done in the first half, there's some deceleration there? And obviously, your orders are looking a little bit different in that regard, being less bad, if you would. So can you help us understand kind of how you're seeing it and what's going on there?

如果我將其與上半場的表現進行比較，是否存在一些減速？顯然，您的訂單在這方面看起來有點不同，如果您願意的話，也不會那麼糟糕。那麼你能幫助我們了解你是如何看待它以及那裡發生了什麼嗎？

Yes. So our thinking on -- again, Mig, it's Tom. Our thinking on the orders and the sales for international, first, you're right, so orders came in at minus 6. They did improve in Q2. But that was driven mainly by Asia. And from what we can tell, a lot of that was influenced by some pull-ins in advance of China's New Year. So we feel these order rates may be a little bit overstated or maybe not entirely reflective of underlying market conditions.

是的。所以我們的想法是──再說一次，米格，是湯姆。我們對國際訂單和銷售的看法，首先，你是對的，所以訂單量為負 6。第二季確實有所改善。但這主要是由亞洲推動的。據我們所知，其中很大一部分是受到中國新年之前的一些拉動的影響。因此，我們認為這些訂單率可能有點高估，或者可能無法完全反映潛在的市場狀況。

And then given the uncertainties of the coronavirus and the fact the Chinese government has extended Chinese New Year by one week, we actually had our Asia team, just within the last 48 hours, redo the second half forecast on what they thought. And their latest thinking, which is obviously very fluid given what's going on there, is now reflected in this new guide. And ironically, it came in about the same as what we had before. We're minus 11.5 before; we're minus 12 million. But that was our thinking, is that combination of the orders are a little bit over-enhanced from the pull-ins, and our current intelligence, based on what's going on is reflected in this guide.

然後考慮到冠狀病毒的不確定性以及中國政府將農曆新年延長一周的事實，我們的亞洲團隊實際上在過去 48 小時內根據他們的想法重做了下半年的預測。他們最新的想法，考慮到那裡正在發生的事情，顯然是非常不穩定的，現在反映在這本新指南中。諷刺的是，它的結果和我們之前的差不多。之前我們是-11.5；我們是-1200萬。但這是我們的想法，訂單的組合因拉動而有點過度增強，而我們目前基於正在發生的情況的情報反映在本指南中。

I appreciate that. Not to put too fine a point, but as we're sort of thinking about the Q3, specifically in Asia, in China, how do we think about that in terms of the negative 12 for the back half of the year?

我很感激。不要說得太過分，但當我們在思考第三季時，特別是在亞洲、在中國，我們如何看待下半年的負 12 季度業績？

Yes. So I'm not going to split it out necessarily by region, but we have international for Q3 at about minus 16. So the worst of it hitting in Q3. You got the Chinese New Year, the extension of that, are some obvious reasons why Q3 might be impacted worse.

是的。所以我不一定要以地區來劃分，但我們第三季的國際價格大約是負 16。所以最糟糕的情況發生在第三季。農曆新年的延長，是第三季可能受到更嚴重影響的一些明顯原因。

Our next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nathan Jones 和 Stifel。

Maybe I'll just start with a question on pricing. I mean, you're kind of getting to the peak of the negative comps in this part of the down cycle. Are you guys seeing any pricing pressure coming from customers? Any kind of aggressive or irrational behavior from competitors in the market out there? I know you guys are always targeting being price cost-neutral. Are you still able to maintain that at the moment? And do you think you can maintain it for the rest of the year?

也許我會先問一個關於定價的問題。我的意思是，在下降週期的這一部分，你正達到負面補償的頂峰。你們是否看到來自客戶的定價壓力？市場上的競爭對手是否有任何攻擊性或非理性的行為？我知道你們總是以價格成本中性為目標。現在你還能維持這樣的狀態嗎？你認為你能在今年剩下的時間裡維持它嗎？

Yes. Nathan, it's Lee. The answer to your question is yes. As you know, our goal always is to be price cost-neutral, margin-neutral. And I think why we're so resilient in doing that are the processes that we have. We file the input costs through our purchase price index, and we have our selling price index that we track at all the different locations. But in our forecast and what we're expecting is to be price cost-neutral, margin-neutral.

是的。內森，是李。你的問題的答案是肯定的。如您所知，我們的目標始終是價格成本中性、利潤中性。我認為為什麼我們如此有彈性地這樣做是因為我們擁有流程。我們透過採購價格指數歸檔投入成本，並有我們在所有不同地點追蹤的銷售價格指數。但在我們的預測中，我們的預期是價格成本中性、利潤中性。

Okay. You guys have also -- I mean you've taken the margin expectation in aerospace down, which I think is fairly straightforward, right? You've got less volume from the MAX, so you're not going to see the leverage on that. You did take the margin expectations in both North America and international up. Can you talk about what's going on there, whether it's internal productivity? Or what else has led to an expectation of better margins for the full year than you had previously baked into guidance?

好的。你們還——我的意思是你們已經降低了航空航太領域的利潤預期，我認為這相當簡單，對吧？MAX 的音量較小，因此您不會看到其槓桿作用。您確實提高了北美和國際的利潤率預期。您能談談那裡發生了什麼嗎？是否是內部生產力？或者還有什麼因素導致全年利潤率預期高於您先前的預期？

Nathan, it's Tom. I think what we're experiencing, what we said, and you saw a lot of that in the first half. If I take North America as an example, we had some benefits from LORD synergies pulling in from what we had originally expected, The Win Strategy and everything we're doing there. We've seen a lot of help from kaizen activities at all of our plants.

內森，是湯姆。我認為我們正在經歷什麼，我們說過什麼，你在上半場看到了很多。如果我以北美為例，我們從 Lord 協同效應中獲得了一些好處，這些協同效應來自我們最初的預期、獲勝策略以及我們在那裡所做的一切。我們所有工廠的改善活動都為我們帶來了很多幫助。

On international, we had a very strong Q2, driven somewhat with higher volume versus our guide. But the same thing for international, kaizen activities, The Win Strategy, we had the benefit of prior restructuring that is playing through for us there. And I think it just gave us confidence that when we looked at our second half, that we could continue that in the second half.

在國際市場上，我們的第二季表現非常強勁，與我們的指導相比，成交量有所增加。但對於國際、改善活動、致勝策略來說，我們也從先前的重組中受益，這正在為我們發揮作用。我認為這給了我們信心，當我們回顧下半場時，我們可以在下半場繼續這樣做。

The organic growth is slightly different, slightly worse than the prior guide. But we didn't think it was enough -- we felt we had enough other positives to offset that and to improve the margins.

有機成長略有不同，比之前的指南稍差。但我們認為這還不夠——我們認為我們有足夠的其他積極因素來抵消這一點並提高利潤率。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Tom, I just want to clarify the MAX comment that you made. I think you said that it impacted 2Q. And so if it did, like what kind of impact did it have on 2Q? And then secondly, as you think about the 0 for the second half of the year, is it just fair to assume that air framers have inventory on hand, and that's why the MAX is going to 0 in 2H?

湯姆，我只是想澄清一下你的 MAX 評論。我想你說過這影響了第二季。如果確實如此，會對第二季產生什麼樣的影響？其次，當你考慮下半年的 0 時，假設飛機製造商手頭上有庫存，這就是為什麼 MAX 在 2 小時內將變為 0 的原因嗎？

Yes. So let me just -- Joe, this is Tom. I'm glad you asked, because I wanted to give a little bit of color as to why we did what we did on the MAX. First, given Boeing's public comments about the ungrounding occurring sometime in the middle of the year, we felt that, hey, there's a lot of uncertainty there. Even Boeing doesn't fully know exactly what's going to happen with that, when suppliers will turn it back on. And that we really wanted to derisk the guidance for the rest of the fiscal year by taking the MAX out. I also felt that it wasn't fair to our shareholders to have it in and then be guessing on what it's going to be and what kind of ramps it could be. I thought it was a disservice to our shareholders. And that it would be much better perceived stronger by taking it completely out and showing that we could demonstrate the guidance that we're going to -- that we have here even without the MAX.

是的。所以讓我——喬，這是湯姆。我很高興你問這個問題，因為我想稍微解釋一下我們為什麼要在 MAX 上做這些事情。首先，考慮到波音公司對今年年中某個時候發生的停飛事件的公開評論，我們認為，嘿，那裡存在著許多不確定性。就連波音公司也完全不知道供應商何時重新啟動它會發生什麼事。我們確實希望透過取消 MAX 來降低本財年剩餘時間的指導風險。我還覺得，把它放進去，然後猜測它會是什麼以及它可能是什麼樣的坡道，這對我們的股東來說是不公平的。我認為這對我們的股東來說是一種傷害。透過將其完全取出並表明我們可以展示我們將要實現的指導，即使沒有 MAX，我們也能得到更好的感知。

So what we did is -- so the production pause officially started January 15. However, when you look at what hit us in Q2, there was some minor slowing of orders, both on the airframe and the engine side. It was approximately $5 million in Q2. The total amount for us for the full year, including Q2 and the second half, is $150 million impact for the MAX and $50 million of earnings, obviously at lower volume and the lack of absorption associated with that. But obviously, Boeing and as well as all of our customers are really important to us. We're going to be there to support them whenever the production returns. If it happens to return sooner than what we have in this guidance, we'll be there for them. And in the meantime, we're reallocating our team members to other programs as much as possible to help with backlog and potentially accelerating schedules if our customers permit that. So that's really the strategy and the thinking behind the MAX.

所以我們所做的是——所以生產暫停從 1 月 15 日正式開始。然而，當你看看第二季對我們造成的影響時，你會發現機身和引擎方面的訂單都有一些輕微的放緩。第二季約 500 萬美元。我們全年的總金額（包括第二季和下半年）對 MAX 的影響為 1.5 億美元，收入為 5,000 萬美元，顯然銷量較低且缺乏與之相關的吸收。但顯然，波音和我們所有的客戶對我們來說都非常重要。每當生產恢復時，我們都會在那裡支持他們。如果它的回歸時間恰好早於我們在本指南中規定的時間，我們將隨時為他們服務。同時，我們正在盡可能地將我們的團隊成員重新分配到其他項目，以幫助解決積壓問題，並在客戶允許的情況下可能加快進度。這就是 MAX 背後的策略和想法。

That's super helpful, Tom. And then maybe if you can just kind of talk about the North America weakness in a little bit more detail, just parsing out, like what you're seeing from a distributor perspective versus what you're seeing on the heavy industry side and how you expect that to play out in your fiscal second half.

這非常有幫助，湯姆。然後也許你可以更詳細地談論北美的弱點，只是解析一下，例如你從分銷商的角度看到的與你在重工業方面看到的以及你如何預計這將在您的下半財年發揮作用。

Okay. So Joe, what I'll do is I'll go through North America, but I'll just maybe run through the whole company on markets because this is typically a question people want. But our thinking on North America, we're guiding 100 bps lower than we had at the prior guide. So it was minus 6. Now, it's minus 7. I'm just talking about the second half because obviously that's what's left. Orders were down from 100 basis points from Q1 to Q2, so that's probably the most direct linkage there. We had distribution weaker. We have the December ISM at 47.2. And all those factors, plus obviously, every time we do this, we do a bottoms-up. We re-look at what our thinking was there.

好的。所以喬，我要做的是我會遍歷北美，但我可能會遍歷整個公司的市場，因為這通常是人們想要的問題。但我們對北美的看法是，我們的指引比之前的指引低 100 個基點。所以它是負 6。現在，它是負 7。我只是在談論下半場，因為顯然這就是剩下的。從第一季到第二季度，訂單量下降了 100 個基點，因此這可能是最直接的連結。我們的分銷較弱。12 月 ISM 指數為 47.2。所有這些因素，顯然，每次我們這樣做時，我們都是自下而上的。我們重新審視我們的想法。

I went through international, but I wanted to make a comment about distribution when I think about North America. So distribution in whole for the whole company, was down mid-single digits, about 400 basis points worse than Q1. And this declined pretty much sequentially through the quarter and really was broad-based from an end-market standpoint. International distribution was worse than North America, but about all the regions went down equally approximately going Q1 to Q2.

我經歷了國際，但當我想到北美時，我想對分銷發表評論。因此，整個公司的整體分配下降了中個位數，比第一季差了約 400 個基點。在整個季度中，這一數字連續大幅下降，從終端市場的角度來看，這一數字確實具有廣泛的基礎。國際分銷情況比北美更差，但大約所有地區在第一季到第二季均出現相同的下降。

In North America, in particular, we think the holiday timing hurt. There's 2 Wednesdays involved there for Christmas and New Year's Day. And really, what we saw with end customers is that drove extended plant shutdowns. And our distributors, as a result of this broad market-based decline and the extended shutdowns, took the opportunity to resize their inventory.

特別是在北美，我們認為假期時間會造成傷害。聖誕節和元旦有兩個星期三。事實上，我們從最終客戶那裡看到的是，這導致工廠停工時間延長。由於市場普遍下滑和停工時間延長，我們的經銷商藉此機會調整了庫存規模。

So if you think about down mid-single digits on distribution, our best intelligence, and again, this is an estimate, was about half of that was destocking. Half of it was tied to end markets.

因此，如果你考慮一下分銷方面的中個位數下降，我們最好的情報，再說一次，這是一個估計，其中大約一半是去庫存。其中一半與終端市場有關。

Maybe if I go back to just total end markets, I'm just going to list off the positives and the negatives, and I'll give maybe a little more color on the specific end markets. But on the positive side for the quarter of Q2, total Parker aerospace, mining, semiconductor, lawn and turf and marine. And then minus was distribution, which was I was just talking about. It's not a market, but an important channel to us. Mills and foundries, refrigeration, machine tools, tire and rubber, power generation, telecom, life sciences, oil and gas, automotive, heavy-duty truck, construction, ag, forestry and rail, this is too long a list on the negative side.

也許如果我回到整體終端市場，我只會列出積極和消極的因素，並且我可能會對特定的終端市場提供更多的資訊。但從第二季的正面來看，派克航空航太、採礦、半導體、草坪和海洋領域總計。然後減去的是分配，這就是我剛才所說的。這不是一個市場，而是我們一個重要的管道。工廠和鑄造廠、冷凍、工具機、輪胎和橡膠、發電、電信、生命科學、石油和天然氣、汽車、重型卡車、建築、農業、林業和鐵路，負面清單太長。

So but let me give you some color, if I was to kind of lift it up to the major segments. So I talked about distribution. So now, if I'd just characterize industrial end markets. For those maybe not familiar, all of our industrial markets are basically things without wheels, things that don't move, equipment that doesn't move. That was -- that improved. So industrial markets went from minus 9 to minus 6.5. Again, total company. The positive side to there was low single-digit improvements in mining and semiconductor. Semiconductor is starting to come back. On the negative side, low single digits -- I'm just going to kind of give you buckets -- low single digits was mills, oil and gas. Mid-single digits was refrigeration, power gen and general industrial. And things greater than 10% declines were machine tools, rubber and tire, telecom and life science.

所以，如果我想把它提升到主要部分的話，讓我給你一些顏色。所以我談到了分配。現在，如果我只描述工業終端市場的特徵。對於那些可能不熟悉的人來說，我們所有的工業市場基本上都是沒有輪子的東西，不會移動的東西，不會移動的設備。那就是——有所改善。因此工業市場從-9 升至-6.5。再說一遍，全公司。積極的一面是採礦業和半導體業出現了低個位數的成長。半導體開始捲土重來。從消極的一面來看，低個位數——我只是想給你一些桶子——低個位數的是工廠、石油和天然氣。中間個位數的是冷凍、發電和一般工業。跌幅超過 10% 的是工具機、橡膠和輪胎、電信和生命科學。

Then on the mobile side, again, equipment with wheels, you saw us go from minus 6.5 in Q1 to minus 14. So that was the big shift. A lot of that was driven in North America. And the positives there was mid-single-digit improvements in lawn and turf. And then on the negatives, kind of 2 buckets here, high single-digit decline in forestry. But then almost all the end markets with mobile were kind of in that 10% to 20% decline range: automotive construction, heavy truck, ag, rail and material handling.

然後在行動端，同樣是有輪子的設備，你會看到我們從第一季的負 6.5 上升到負 14。這就是重大轉變。其中很大一部分是在北美推動的。正面的一面是草坪和草皮有中等個位數的改善。然後是負面影響，林業出現了 2 個桶的高個位數下降。但隨後幾乎所有行動終端市場都出現了 10% 到 20% 的下降幅度：汽車建築、重型卡車、農業、鐵路和物料搬運。

And then Cathy alluded to, in her comments, about aerospace is, rounding to the nearest half, up plus 1.5. We had commercial OE, minus 3; military OE, plus 2; commercial MRO, plus 15; and military MRO, down 5. That netted out to 1.5. So that's kind of the spend through the end markets, Joe. I don't know if you have a follow-up to that.

然後凱西在她的評論中提到，關於航空航天，四捨五入到最接近的一半，增加了 1.5。我們有商業 OE，負 3；軍用 OE，加 2；商業 MRO，加 15；軍事 MRO 下降 5。最終降至 1.5。這就是終端市場的支出，喬。我不知道你是否有後續行動。

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Yes. So I guess maybe focusing on the North America order, we already talked a little bit about what happened in international. But what's your view on whether or not order activity has bottomed, and maybe thinking about how January has trended as a way to characterize that.

是的。所以我想也許重點關注北美訂單，我們已經討論了一些國際上發生的事情。但您對訂單活動是否已觸底有何看法，也許可以考慮一月份的趨勢來描述這一點。

Nicole, it's Tom. So if I was to kind of do what I did, I won't go into that same kind of detail for North America. But if you look at North America industrial, it went Q1 to Q2, basically about the same, minus 5.5, minus 6. So basically the same quarter-over-quarter.

妮可，是湯姆。因此，如果我要像我所做的那樣，我不會對北美進行同樣的細節。但如果你看看北美工業，第一季到第二季基本上相同，負5.5，負6。所以季度環比基本上相同。

Mobile is what declined the most. It went from minus 5 to minus 16. And all the same end markets that I just described for the total company is what we saw there. And then on distribution, that went from minus 2 to about -- I mean it was flat in North America to about minus 4, so -- in Q2. So that was 400 bps in North America alone that we went down. So that was kind of how we look at North America.

移動設備是下降幅度最大的。溫度從負 5 降至負 16。我剛才描述的整個公司的所有終端市場都是我們在那裡看到的。然後在分銷方面，第二季從負 2 到大約 - 我的意思是北美持平到負 4 左右。光是在北美，我們就下跌了 400 個基點。這就是我們對北美的看法。

I think, in general, when we think about organic growth for the year, we're really -- in our guidance, we're reflecting, really, Q3 is kind of our bottom from what we see at this point.

我認為，總的來說，當我們考慮今年的有機成長時，我們確實在我們的指導中反映出，從我們目前所看到的情況來看，第三季確實是我們的底部。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then just a quick one on the deals. I think you guys said that you're expecting $18 million of synergies, up a little bit from your prior guidance. Can you just say what you've realized in synergies in the second quarter? And what's remaining for the second half?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後簡單介紹一下交易狀況。我想你們說過，你們預計將產生 1800 萬美元的協同效應，比之前的指導要高一些。您能簡單介紹一下第二季的綜效嗎？下半場還剩下什麼？

Yes. We saw a little bit of the synergies for LORD pull into the second quarter. The timing moved ahead for us. We got them sooner than we anticipated, and so we're then factoring that through the rest of the year as well. So a small amount in Q2 with $18 million for the full year effect.

是的。我們在第二季度看到了 Lord 的一些協同效應。我們的時間提早了。我們得到它們的時間比我們預期的要早，所以我們也會在今年剩餘的時間考慮到這一點。因此，第二季的金額很小，全年影響為 1800 萬美元。

Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ann Duignan 與摩根大通的對話。

Tom, would you just comment on the notion that while you've taken the downturn in aerospace because of the 737 MAX, couldn't that also spill over into your industrial business more broadly, just from the supply chain and the supply base as they have to shut down production?

湯姆，您能簡單評論一下這樣一個觀點嗎？雖然您因 737 MAX 而遭受了航空航天業的低迷，但這是否也會從供應鏈和供應基地更廣泛地蔓延到您的工業業務，因為它們必須停產嗎？

Yes. Ann, this is Tom. We did factor that in. Because -- and for people who don't realize it, that we'd have a fair amount of work that goes that's aerospace-related, and engineered materials and filtration that goes into that. So the $150 million includes the industrial piece in that. And just in round numbers, about 10% of that is industrial; and the other 90%, as you might imagine, the bulk of it is in the aerospace segment. But we did factor in the amount of onboard type of work we did. And then the -- I think what the other part you're referring to is the things that might be in the factories of our suppliers. That's factored into the guide we have for the rest of the business.

是的。安，這是湯姆。我們確實考慮到了這一點。因為——對於那些沒有意識到這一點的人來說，我們需要做大量與航空航天相關的工作，以及與之相關的工程材料和過濾工作。因此，1.5 億美元中包括了工業部分。僅以整數計算，其中約 10% 是工業用電；另外 90%，正如你想像的那樣，其中大部分是在航空航太領域。但我們確實考慮了我們所做的船上工作類型的數量。然後 - 我認為你所指的另一部分是我們供應商工廠中可能存在的東西。這已納入我們為其他業務制定的指南中。

Okay. That's -- I appreciate that. And then just circling back on the same topic. Can you give us a breakdown of the $150 million? How much of that is legacy Parker? And how much is Exotic materials?

好的。那是——我很欣賞這一點。然後又回到同一個話題。您能否向我們詳細介紹一下這 1.5 億美元的具體情況？其中有多少是帕克的遺產？奇異材料多少錢？

So Exotic is $60 million of the $50 million.

因此，Exotic 是 5000 萬美元中的 6000 萬美元。

$150 million.

1.5億美元。

Of the $150 million, sorry. $60 million of the $150 million.

抱歉，這 1.5 億美元中。1.5 億美元中的 6 千萬美元。

$60 million of the $150 million?

1.5 億美元中的 6 千萬美元？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And that includes both direct shipments, content on the aircraft, as well as shipments to the engine?

好的。這包括直接發貨、飛機上的內容以及發送到發動機的發貨嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的傑米庫克。

I guess, 2 questions, Tom. Just in terms of as we exit 2020, potentially, comps get better when we start to see organic growth reignite again. Based on what you've done with the acquisitions and when is there -- should we be thinking about incrementals any differently? And I'm wondering if there's a difference on how to think about things, industrial versus aerospace, I guess. And then just my second question just relates to your portfolio, given some of the announcements recently. One, do you see any change in the competitive landscape? Or could that be a positive for you with Eaton selling their hydraulics business? And just your view of -- is there any change in your view, I guess, of your portfolio in terms of potential divestitures?

我想，有兩個問題，湯姆。就我們退出 2020 年而言，當我們開始看到有機成長再次重燃時，公司業績可能會變得更好。根據您對收購所做的事情以及何時收購—我們是否應該以不同的方式考慮增量？我想知道工業和航空航天領域在思考事物的方式上是否存在差異。鑑於最近發布的一些公告，我的第二個問題與您的投資組合有關。第一，您認為競爭格局有什麼改變嗎？或者，伊頓出售其液壓業務對您來說是否有積極意義？我想，您對您的投資組合在潛在資產剝離方面的看法是否有任何變化？

Okay, Jamie, it's Tom. So I'm going to work backwards on the questions. I'll start with -- I think what you're referring to is the Danfoss-Eaton announcement. I would first say we weren't surprised given, I think, the portfolio that Eaton has. And I think some -- our inclination as to what they might do with it. We have a lot of respect for both Danfoss and Eaton. And in our view, strong competitors make you a better business. So we welcome the challenge.

好的，傑米，是湯姆。所以我要倒著回答這些問題。我首先——我想你指的是丹佛斯-伊頓的聲明。我首先要說的是，考慮到伊頓擁有的產品組合，我們並不感到驚訝。我認為有些——我們傾向於他們可能會用它做什麼。我們非常尊重丹佛斯和伊頓。我們認為，強大的競爭對手可以讓您的業務變得更好。所以我們歡迎挑戰。

We like our chances. We believe that the breadth of our technologies, the breadth that we have with the motion and control technologies, and The Win Strategy is going to allow us to compete effectively with any company in our space. And we're confident going forward. Obviously, when you have these kind of transitions, having done a lot of these type of acquisitions ourselves, we recognize that there's stress in the system when that happens. And there's maybe potential opportunities to look at share gain. And so we will obviously be doing everything we can to optimize that and take advantage of that and the good competitive tension in the system.

我們喜歡我們的機會。我們相信，我們技術的廣度、運動和控制技術的廣度以及致勝策略將使我們能夠與我們領域的任何公司進行有效競爭。我們對前進充滿信心。顯然，當你進行這種類型的轉變時，我們自己進行了很多此類收購，我們認識到，當這種情況發生時，系統中會存在壓力。也許還有潛在的機會來考慮股票收益。因此，我們顯然將盡一切努力來優化這一點，並利用這一點以及系統中良好的競爭壓力。

So if I move back to maybe your other 2 comments on incremental MROSes kind of looking forward, I still think plus 30, in general, is a good number if you're doing it over multiple years. But clearly, coming out of a downturn, as we have talked about in the past, you would expect to see that be north of a plus 30 because you're going to get some help as that volume comes up, and you're going to be only adding incremental variable cost and doing it very efficiently as you do that. So I think the first couple of quarters coming out tends to be stronger than what I would say you'd see over a whole cycle.

因此，如果我回到您對增量 MROS 的其他 2 條評論（有點期待），我仍然認為，如果您多年來一直這樣做，那麼總的來說，+ 30 是一個不錯的數字。但顯然，正如我們過去所討論的那樣，走出低迷時期，你會期望看到高於 30 的數字，因為隨著交易量的增加，你會得到一些幫助，而且你會僅增加增量可變成本，並且在這樣做時非常有效率。因此，我認為前幾季的表現往往比我所說的在整個週期中看到的要強。

And then the whole goal of these acquisitions, and they will, but maybe I could just comment in general about them. I'm extremely pleased with the progress. We've acquired great products and technology, but the best thing that we've done is the talent that's come into the organization from these 2 businesses. It was on full display when we had the leadership meeting. We had about 80 people from both businesses and together. And if I look at LORD, LORD is ahead of what we had hoped for, low single-digit growth, and that compares to a minus 6.5% for total Parker. So it's doing what we wanted. It's more resilient. And what we're seeing from the aerospace, thermal management, and structural adhesives part of LORD is really doing quite nicely. We were very confident on the $125 million of cost synergies, and we pulled in the synergies into this year.

然後是這些收購的總體目標，它們會的，但也許我可以對它們進行一般性評論。我對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們已經獲得了出色的產品和技術，但我們所做的最好的事情是從這兩家企業進入組織的人才。當我們召開領導會議時，這一點得到了充分展現。我們共有約 80 位來自兩個企業的人員。如果我看洛德，洛德就領先我們所希望的低個位數成長，而相較之下，帕克的總成長率為負 6.5%。所以它正在做我們想要的事情。它更有彈性。我們從 Lord 的航空航太、熱管理和結構膠合部分看到的情況確實非常好。我們對 1.25 億美元的成本協同效應非常有信心，並將這種協同效應帶入了今年。

Now with Exotic, the team is doing a great job. The 737 MAX is out of everybody's hands. That's something we can't control. But that team there has effectively redeployed everybody that was on the MAX, and we've redeployed them to the F135. And we got to do some minor CapEx to help facilitate that, but we have them on F135. We also have the repair depot starting up on the F135.

現在，Exotic 團隊做得非常出色。737 MAX 已經脫離了所有人的掌控。這是我們無法控制的。但那裡的團隊已經有效地重新部署了 MAX 上的所有人，而我們已將他們重新部署到 F135 上。我們必須做一些小的資本支出來幫助促進這一點，但我們在 F135 上有它們。我們還在 F135 上啟動了維修站。

And then we've got one of the big synergies, which we didn't really disclose on our revenue side, is the fact that we have this well-established aftermarket organization, customer support operation, that's part of legacy Parker aerospace, that can help with the commercial efforts of Exotic to go capture those legacy engines and to look for spares and repairs for all the type of products that Exotic does. And we're going to do that, and we're going to try to pull them in. Now everything I just described in that is not going to really help so much Exotic in FY '20, but it's really positioning for FY '21. And the MAX will come back. And so I think we have the benefit there as potentially a one-two punch with Exotic, MAX goes back. And then we've also got additional people trained.

然後，我們獲得了一個巨大的協同效應，我們在收入方面並未真正披露這一點，那就是我們擁有完善的售後組織、客戶支援運營，這是傳統派克航空航天的一部分，可以幫助Exotic 的商業努力去捕捉那些遺留引擎，並為Exotic 生產的所有類型的產品尋找備用零件和維修。我們會這樣做，並努力吸引他們加入。現在，我剛才描述的所有內容並不會真正對 20 財年的異國情調有多大幫助，但它確實是 21 財年的定位。MAX將會回來。所以我認為我們在那裡有優勢，因為有可能與 Exotic 進行一打二拳，MAX 會回來。然後我們也培訓了更多人員。

Now some of the F135 will depend on our customer, allowing us to accelerate the schedule. I think they have signaled that they would. But obviously, if some other supply becomes a constraint for them, they might slow us down. But that's an opportunity to accelerate the F135.

現在，部分 F135 將取決於我們的客戶，這使我們能夠加快進度。我認為他們已經表示他們會這樣做。但顯然，如果其他供應成為他們的限制，他們可能會減慢我們的速度。但這是加速 F135 的機會。

So that's kind of a long-winded answer on acquisitions. But if you think about them in aggregate, they're coming in. They're going to grow faster than the legacy Parker. And that was the whole reason why we acquired them. You see the incremental EBITDA, what it's doing for us in one of the slides that Cathy had. So we're still very positive. The MAX is a short-term blip on the path to a pretty strong future for them.

這是關於收購的冗長答案。但如果你把它們放在一起考慮，它們就會進來。他們將比老派帕克成長得更快。這就是我們收購它們的全部原因。您可以在 Cathy 的一張幻燈片中看到增量 EBITDA，它為我們所做的事情。所以我們還是非常積極的。對他們來說，MAX 是他們通往美好未來之路上的一個短暫的插曲。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究的傑夫·斯普拉格。

Just a couple of things for me. First, just back to LORD, Tom. Can you address how it's performing kind of in the automotive markets? And you had pointed to kind of the ability to outgrow through thick and thin. We've heard a lot of the kind of negative automotive comments out of the 3Ms and DuPonts here this earnings season. Just wonder how things are really progressing for that slice of the business.

對我來說只有幾件事。首先，回到主，湯姆。您能談談它在汽車市場的表現嗎？你曾指出過一種無論在什麼情況下都能成長的能力。在這個財報季，我們聽到了很多 3M 和杜邦公司對汽車產業的負面評論。只是想知道這部分業務的進展如何。

Yes. So -- and without getting in specific numbers, if I just take the 3 major buckets. Aerospace is a pretty strong growth for us. And then the industrial piece would be slightly negative, and automotive would be neutral to slightly positive. And what's really happening there is the technologies we have there that are more electrification type of technologies, which would be thermal management and structural adhesives, are offsetting the weaknesses that we have. And the traditional adhesives and coatings, they might be more supplied into the internal combustion engine. So I'm really happy with what they're doing, coming in at low single digits. And that's even factoring in some weakness in Asia tied to the coronavirus. So those -- that's obviously a new element, and that's an unknown still as yet to be determined. But I'm really happy with what they're doing out of the gate.

是的。因此，如果我只考慮 3 個主要的方面，那麼無需提供具體數字。航空航太對我們來說是一個相當強勁的成長。然後工業部分將略有負面，汽車部分將呈中性至略有正面。真正發生的事情是我們擁有的技術，更多的是電氣化類型的技術，這將是熱管理和結構黏合劑，正在抵消我們所擁有的弱點。而傳統的黏合劑和塗料，它們可能更多地供應到內燃機中。因此，我對他們所做的事情感到非常滿意，他們的業績只有個位數。這甚至也考慮到了亞洲與冠狀病毒相關的一些弱點。所以這些——這顯然是一個新元素，而且仍然是一個尚未確定的未知因素。但我對他們在外面所做的事情感到非常滿意。

Then I was curious, back to the MAX situation. You provided a little detail on the redirect to the F135, et cetera. But have you actually shut down MAX-related production? Or are you continuing at some low rate to kind of keep the line warm? How do you kind of manage that operationally to make sure you are ready to go if you get the signal?

然後我很好奇，回到MAX的情況。您提供了有關重定向到 F135 等的一些詳細資訊。但你們真的停止了MAX相關的生產嗎？或者你會繼續以較低的速度保持線路溫暖嗎？您如何在操作上進行管理，以確保您在收到訊號時做好準備？

Well, obviously, that's a balancing act. So we've redeployed the people, so we haven't lost that skill set for the most part. There are some we could not retain, unfortunately, but we've retained most of them. So we have the skill set people-wise. Obviously, we'll make sure we maintain any of the equipment that needs to be maintained. So we're ready to go.

嗯，顯然，這是一種平衡行為。所以我們重新部署了人員，所以我們在很大程度上沒有失去這些技能。不幸的是，有些我們無法保留，但我們保留了其中的大部分。因此，我們擁有人才方面的技能。顯然，我們將確保維護任何需要維護的設備。我們準備出發了。

And with our supply chain, we're making sure that they're ready and able to supply to us when we need to. So if we need to carry a little extra inventory to be ready, we'll do that. And our suppliers will be on the ready, too. But I thought it was prudent for us and for our shareholders to not be trying to chase and guessing when the MAX is going to start back up. So we didn't build it in the guidance. But obviously, internally, we're going to make sure we built a supply chain that can respond. Obviously, Boeing needs to give us some lead time, and they recognize that, and they will. But we'll be there to respond when Boeing gives us a signal.

透過我們的供應鏈，我們確保他們已準備好並能夠在我們需要時向我們供應。因此，如果我們需要攜帶一些額外的庫存來做好準備，我們就會這樣做。我們的供應商也將做好準備。但我認為，對於我們和我們的股東來說，謹慎的做法是不要試圖追逐和猜測 MAX 何時會重新啟動。所以我們沒有在指南中建造它。但顯然，在內部，我們將確保建立一個能夠回應的供應鏈。顯然，波音需要給我們一些準備時間，他們認識到這一點，而且他們會的。但當波音公司向我們發出訊號時，我們會立即做出回應。

Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Tiss。

We've gotten a lot of good information here. So just a couple of like, whatever, clarifications, I guess. Are you guys giving any updates on your debt-to-EBITDA? Like where do you expect to be by when? Or is that more for the Analyst Day?

我們在這裡獲得了很多有用的信息。我想，無論怎樣，只是一些澄清。你們有關於債務與 EBITDA 的更新嗎？例如你預計什麼時候到達哪裡？還是分析師日的更多內容？

I can talk about that for you, Joel. As we finished the quarter, considering that we don't have a full 12 months of EBITDA from the acquisitions in there, we're currently at a gross debt-to-EBITDA as is of 4x. And our net debt is 3.6x. We expect by the end of the year, we'll have the gross debt down to 3.7 and the net debt down to 3.3. But again, that's not -- that only has a stub period of EBITDA for the acquisitions in there. So it's actually -- next year will look -- quickly look a little better once we get 12 months of EBITDA.

我可以為你談談這個，喬爾。在本季結束時，考慮到我們沒有從收購中獲得完整 12 個月的 EBITDA，目前我們的總債務與 EBITDA 比率為 4 倍。我們的淨債務是 3.6 倍。我們預計到今年年底，總債務將降至 3.7，淨債務將降至 3.3。但同樣，這不是——那裡的收購只有一段 EBITDA 的存續期。因此，一旦我們獲得 12 個月的 EBITDA，實際上 - 明年看起來 - 很快就會好一些。

And is there a target before you'd look at acquisitions again? Do you need to be closer to 2? Or is it more 2.5?

在您再次考慮收購之前是否有目標？你需要接近2嗎？還是2.5以上？

Yes, Joel, it's Tom. I think as -- 2.0 is what we'd like to get to. But obviously, as we start to glide closer to that, we're going to -- obviously, our interest is going to get more keen. The key thing on -- and what we've learned, and it's not a new lesson, over the years, is you have to continually work that business development pipeline. We are working it now today as we speak, building those relationships, understanding the strategic fits to our company. And so we'll continue to do that. Even though we're not ready to action anything, we'll continue to work that pipeline. But yes, we need to get closer to 2 before we get back in the game.

是的，喬爾，是湯姆。我認為－2.0 是我們想要達到的目標。但顯然，當我們開始接近這個目標時，我們的興趣將會變得更加濃厚。多年來我們學到的最關鍵的一點是，你必須不斷地進行業務開發工作，這並不是什麼新教訓。今天我們正在努力建立這些關係，了解適合我們公司的策略。所以我們將繼續這樣做。儘管我們還沒有準備好採取任何行動，但我們將繼續努力。但是，是的，在我們回到比賽之前，我們需要接近 2。

Okay. And just one last quick one. You -- Jamie asked about PLS, and you didn't really -- you missed that part of the question. I just wondered, are there any kind of bigger chunks that you guys are seeing that could accelerate the restructuring? Or everything is pretty much as you expected, and we just keep the incremental improvement?

好的。還有最後一件事。你——傑米詢問了 PLS，但你並沒有真正——你錯過了問題的這一部分。我只是想知道，你們看到的更大的區塊是否可以加速重組？或者一切都和你預期的差不多，我們只是保持漸進式的改進？

Joel, help me with PLS.

喬爾，請幫幫我。

Product line simplification. So looking at individual product lines, and hiving them off or finding a better owner for them.

產品線簡化。因此，要專注於各個產品線，並將它們分開或為它們尋找更好的所有者。

Okay. Good. So yes, that's going to be a big -- we will talk a lot about that at the IR day. But the cliff notes is that's still a really big part of our strategy going forward. And we've added to it with Simple by Design. So still looking at, what I'll call organization or structural change, a number of divisions and groups. But that has played through, for the most part, but we continue to look at that.

好的。好的。所以，是的，這將是一件大事——我們將在投資者關係日討論很多相關內容。但懸崖指出，這仍然是我們未來策略的重要組成部分。我們還添加了“簡單設計”。因此，仍在關注我所說的組織或結構變革，即一些部門和團體。但這在很大程度上已經發揮了作用，但我們將繼續關注這一點。

But the other part of that that we'll look at is just within the divisions, do we have the right staffing elements, what we call competitive staffing analysis, looking at debt versus best-in-class examples. So that's item 1.

但我們要關注的另一部分是在部門內部，我們是否擁有合適的人員配置要素，即我們所說的競爭性人員配置分析，即查看債務與一流示例。這就是第 1 項。

Item 3 is, I think, what you were using, what we would call 80-20. And that's still early days. We have lots of opportunities, and that's a big part of how we're trying to simplify things, revenue complexity and the processes and structure that services that.

我認為第 3 項就是您所使用的，我們稱之為 80-20。現在還處於早期階段。我們有很多機會，這是我們努力簡化事物、收入複雜性以及為此提供服務的流程和結構的重要組成部分。

And the third element is Simple by Design, which gets at that approximately 70% of the product cost is tied up in how we design things in the first place. So you can have the most fantastic lean system in kaizen and doing all these other simplification things I just talked about, but a lot of your cost and your speed within your factories and your speed to service customers, is stuck in concrete based on how you design the product. So we'll go through that in a lot more detail at IR Day. And we think we're one of the first people thinking differently on how we want to do that, and it'll be a combination of process and software things that we'll elaborate in more detail. And that's -- obviously, that's a little bit longer term because you got to do that as you design new things. There are some things we can do going backwards with existing designs. But that will set us up nicely for margin expansion, and really, I think, speed, in the future.

第三個要素是“設計簡單”，它表明大約 70% 的產品成本與我們最初的設計方式有關。因此，您可以在改善中擁有最出色的精益系統，並執行我剛才談到的所有其他簡化事情，但是您的工廠內的大量成本和速度以及服務客戶的速度都取決於您的具體方式設計產品。因此，我們將在 IR Day 上更詳細地討論這一點。我們認為我們是第一批以不同方式思考如何做到這一點的人之一，這將是流程和軟體事物的結合，我們將更詳細地闡述。顯然，這是一個更長的期限，因為你在設計新東西時必須這樣做。我們可以對現有設計進行一些倒退。但這將為我們的利潤率擴張做好準備，而且我認為，未來的速度確實會更快。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

I think, Tom, you had said that destocking was about a 2.5-point drag on sales in the fiscal second quarter. So I just wondered what your guidance implies for that destock aspect in the second half, please.

湯姆，我想你曾說過，去庫存對第二財季的銷售造成了約 2.5 個百分點的拖累。所以我只是想知道您的指導對下半年的去庫存方面意味著什麼。

That one is really hard to predict exactly how destocking goes and doesn't go. To be honest, I would not have expected, given what we were trending before the quarter, to have it step down about 200 bps. We're -- in round numbers, we're about minus 100 destocking in Q1. It's now around minus 300 in Q2.

確實很難準確預測去庫存的進展和不進展。老實說，考慮到本季前的趨勢，我沒想到它會下降約 200 個基點。我們的數字是，第一季的庫存減少量約為負 100。現在第二季約為負300。

That has to eventually find equilibrium. And I would -- based on probably the Q3 being our bottom, our hope is that the destocking would hit bottom in Q3, and then everything else from our distribution channel would be end market-related as we go into Q4.

最終必須找到平衡。我認為，基於第三季可能是我們的底部，我們希望去庫存將在第三季觸底，然後當我們進入第四季時，我們分銷通路的其他一切都將與終端市場相關。

That's helpful. And then my second question, just on the international industrial segment. You gave a lot of good color on the top line pieces moving around there. I just wanted to ask on the margins, because it looks as if -- in terms of the margin rate, your full year guide for margins in international implies a step-down sequentially in the second half from the first half, or second half versus Q2, even though the revenues, just in dollar terms, should be going up. So I just wondered if there's something around mix or something with the Asian production impact that you were talking about earlier that dragged down the margin sequentially even with that higher revenue.

這很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題，關於國際工業領域。你給了那裡移動的頂線部分很多很好的色彩。我只是想問一下利潤率，因為就利潤率而言，你們的國際利潤率全年指南意味著下半年比上半年連續下降，或者下半年比上半年下降。第二季度，儘管以美元計算的收入應該會上升。所以我只是想知道是否有一些關於混合的因素或是你之前提到的亞洲生產影響，即使收入較高，也會連續拖累利潤率。

Yes. You hit the nail on the head. So percentage-wise, organic goes down 11.5 to minus 12 for international. But I think, in particular, what you're seeing there is we've got a little -- our assumption is a little weaker decremental, go from a decremental in the low 20s in the first half to kind of the low 30s in the second half for Asia, really influenced by how we looked at what the risks associated and the uncertainties around, in particular, Asia, the coronavirus and just the unknowns there. Recognizing that as you extend Chinese New Year shutdown, nothing's happening there. And then when you start back up, it's going to be much more inefficient. Our belief on the start-up, than in previous times coming off of the Chinese New Year. So that's really the difference, Julian.

是的。你擊中了要害。因此，從百分比來看，國際航班的有機率下降了 11.5 至負 12。但我認為，特別是你所看到的，我們的假設是遞減的，從上半場 20 多歲的遞減到下半年 30 多歲的遞減。對於亞洲來說，下半年的情況實際上受到我們如何看待相關風險和不確定性的影響，特別是亞洲、冠狀病毒和那裡的未知因素。認識到當你延長農曆新年的停工時間時，那裡什麼也沒有發生。然後當你重新開始時，效率就會低得多。我們對創業的信心，比往年過年的時候都要高。這就是真正的區別，朱利安。

Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券的安迪凱西。

First question on Europe. It doesn't seem like that's trending any different than you expected, but are you seeing -- we're seeing some improving macro stuff. Are you seeing anything on the ground that would follow that?

第一個問題關於歐洲。這似乎與你預期的趨勢沒有什麼不同，但你看到了嗎——我們看到了一些宏觀的改善。您是否看到了隨之而來的任何事情？

Andy, it's Tom. We saw some slight improvement in Europe. If I look at EMEA as a total region, industrial went from minus 13 to minus 11 in Q2. So still soft, but got a little bit better -- there was no particular end market that kind of lifted up [sand], that was what drove it. It just it was kind of really a whole breadth of it getting a little bit better.

安迪，是湯姆。我們看到歐洲略有改善。如果我將歐洲、中東和非洲地區視為整體地區，第二季工業指數從負 13 降至負 11。所以仍然很軟，但已經好一點了——沒有特定的終端市場會抬高[沙子]，這就是推動它的因素。只是它的整體範圍確實變得更好了一點。

Mobile was basically the same, minus 13. Slight improvement, minus 12.5. I'm rounding to the nearest half. So I would say fairly consistent with some minor improvement.

移動端基本相同，為負13。略有改善，負 12.5。我四捨五入到最接近的一半。所以我想說，與一些小的改進相當一致。

Okay. And then I think last quarter, you called out Phase 3, Phase 1 -- or sorry, Phase 3, Phase 4 being 28% and 48%, respectively. It sounds like North American distribution had a little bit of a lag down. Could you kind of help us with how Phase 3 and Phase 4 trended in Q2, and how that may change if you exclude the North American distribution piece?

好的。然後我想上個季度，您提到了第 3 階段、第 1 階段——或者抱歉，第 3 階段、第 4 階段分別為 28% 和 48%。聽起來北美發行有點落後。您能否幫助我們了解第二季第三階段和第四階段的趨勢，以及如果排除北美發行部分，情況可能會發生什麼變化？

Yes. Andy, so that distribution -- as distribution goes, it really influences these 4 phases. I think what we've seen now in looking at these phases, things can move, kind of jockey back and forth between Phase 3 and Phase 4, depending on what's going on. And that's what we saw in this last quarter. Distribution went from Phase 4 in the prior quarter to Phase 3. And distribution being like 37 points of our -- excluding aerospace, it influences it quite a bit.

是的。安迪，隨著發行的進行，它確實影響了這四個階段。我認為我們現在在審視這些階段時所看到的，事情可以發生變化，在第三階段和第四階段之間來回移動，這取決於正在發生的事情。這就是我們在上個季度看到的情況。分銷從上一季的第四階段進入了第三階段。分銷就像我們的 37 個點一樣——不包括航空航天，它對其影響很大。

So if I just contrast for you, Phase 1, that's accelerating growth, was plus 3 -- I'm talking about the current quarter; decelerating growth, Phase 2 is plus 17% -- or 17% of our sales. Accelerating decline Phase 3 was 72%, and that main reason why that moved higher was because distribution moved into there, and automotive moved into there. Automotive was in Phase 4. The balance being 8% of our sales was in Phase 4 decelerating decline. So the big shift predominant was distribution and automotive moving from 4 to 3.

因此，如果我只是為你做對比，第一階段，也就是加速成長，是+3──我說的是當季；由於成長減速，第二階段增加了 17%，即我們銷售額的 17%。加速下降階段 3 為 72%，其上升的主要原因是分銷進入那裡，汽車進入那裡。汽車產業處於第四階段。我們銷售額的 8% 處於第四階段，正在減速下降。因此，主要的重大轉變是分銷和汽車從 4 轉變為 3。

Okay. And then one last one, and this is an attempt, because irrespective of what you say, I'll be at the Investor Day. But should we expect any significant changes in the longer-term goals that you've previously outlined outside of potentially EBITDA margins, which are -- look on track to maybe exceed it? Given a big slug of amortization that you're carrying now, the EBIT margin seems like it might be more of a challenge. But anyway, should -- your lineup looks great. It looks like you're going to be providing a lot of detail. But at the end of it, should we expect significant changes in the longer-term trajectory?

好的。最後一個，這是一種嘗試，因為無論你說什麼，我都會參加投資者日。但是，我們是否應該預期您之前概述的長期目標會在潛在的 EBITDA 利潤率之外發生任何重大變化，這些目標預計會超過它？考慮到您現在承擔的攤銷金額很大，息稅前利潤率似乎可能更具挑戰性。但無論如何，應該——你的陣容看起來很棒。看起來您將提供很多細節。但最終，我們是否應該預期長期軌跡會發生重大變化？

Yes, Tom. You're very perceptive. Obviously, the amortization headwinds, Cathy gave numbers by segment. If you look at that on a steady-state, round numbers, it's about 100 bps of headwind that we now have with amortization before -- that we didn't have before we set those goals.

是的，湯姆。你很有洞察力。顯然，攤銷不利，凱西按部門給了數字。如果你從穩態、整數的角度來看，我們現在有大約 100 個基點的逆風，而且之前有攤銷——這是我們在設定這些目標之前沒有的。

But I would -- the short answer to your question is, no, you should not see any big changes. But obviously, EBITDA needs to be looked at given what's happened. And we will look at that. And we're looking forward to seeing everybody because I think you're going to see an excited team with an exciting lineup with, I think, more information than we've ever shared with you. And we're going to get a chance to talk about The Win Strategy 3.0 and a lot of things that I think are going to be very compelling to people wanting to be excited about, our current shareholders and then, hopefully, future shareholders to want to own Parker Hannifin.

但我想——對你的問題的簡短回答是，不，你不應該看到任何重大的變化。但顯然，考慮到所發生的事情，需要審視 EBITDA。我們將會研究這一點。我們期待見到大家，因為我認為你們將看到一支令人興奮的團隊，擁有令人興奮的陣容，我認為，我們將比我們與你們分享的資訊更多。我們將有機會談論制勝策略 3.0 以及許多我認為對那些想要興奮的人、我們當前的股東以及未來的股東來說非常有吸引力的事情擁有帕克漢尼汾。

Our last question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題來自史蒂芬·福克曼和傑弗里斯的對話。

Wow, just slid it in. Can I just ask, Tom, to go back to something you were talking about earlier, when I think Joel was asking you about product line simplification, and you talked about 80-20. From a lot of other companies who have instituted this, a big part of the process was hiving off a fairly chunky size of revenues that might be underperforming or might just not have the potential to perform over time that you might have thought. You've made lots and lots of acquisitions. So I guess I was just trying to get a little more clarity there. Can you picture Parker going through a process of divesting a significant chunk of revenue to kind of prepare the ship for higher returns and higher growth going forward? Or is the portfolio kind of where you wanted, and there might be some tweaking but nothing major?

哇，剛塞進去。Tom，我可以請您回到您之前談論的話題嗎？當時我認為 Joel 在問您有關產品線簡化的問題，而您談到了 80-20。從許多其他已經實行這一制度的公司來看，這個過程的很大一部分是剝離相當大的收入規模，這些收入可能表現不佳，或者可能只是沒有你想像的隨著時間的推移表現出的潛力。你已經進行了很多很多的收購。所以我想我只是想更清楚地了解這一點。您能想像帕克正在經歷一個剝離大部分收入的過程，以便為船未來獲得更高的回報和更高的成長做好準備嗎？或者投資組合是否符合您的要求，可能會進行一些調整，但沒什麼大不了的？

Yes, Steve. This is Tom. So that's a good question. And actually, that's probably what Joel was getting at, and I didn't completely answer him. I think the short answer is, no, you're not going to see any major chunks come off. You might see some minor tweaks. The big difference between, say, how we're deploying 80-20, we're deploying it the same way that people that you've seen do it before like ITW, et cetera. The difference is our portfolio. Our portfolio is built with a lot of complementary interconnectivity there. And with 60% of our revenue coming from customers that buy from 4 or more of our technologies, our revenue in the tail is very much linked to other revenue throughout the company.

是的，史蒂夫。這是湯姆。這是一個好問題。事實上，這可能就是喬爾的意思，而我並沒有完全回答他。我認為簡短的答案是，不，你不會看到任何大塊脫落。您可能會看到一些細微的調整。比方說，我們部署 80-20 的方式之間的巨大差異，我們的部署方式與您之前見過的人（例如 ITW 等）的部署方式相同。不同之處在於我們的投資組合。我們的產品組合是建立在許多互補的互連性之上的。由於我們 60% 的收入來自購買我們 4 種或更多技術的客戶，因此我們的尾部收入與整個公司的其他收入密切相關。

So it requires a little more thoughtful approach. We can't just lop off those tails, saying, "Hey, that's the end of it," because the tail for one division might be an A item for a different division. So we're doing that from a very thoughtful standpoint. We will still get the same kind of speed and margin improvements. We're just -- you're not going to see really any kind of revenue changes on that. We don't see it as a headwind to revenue. It will be neutral on the revenue side. You might see some minor things that we do on that. But most of it's going to be just helping customers through different ways to deliver it. Different pricing things. There are different things we can do on alternative part numbers to satisfy their demand. We want to still take care of our customers and create a great experience for them, we're just going to find more efficient ways to do it.

因此，它需要更深思熟慮的方法。我們不能只是剪掉這些尾巴，說：“嘿，就這樣結束了”，因為一個部門的尾巴可能是另一個部門的 A 項目。所以我們是從非常深思熟慮的角度來做這件事的。我們仍將獲得相同的速度和利潤改進。我們只是——你不會看到任何收入變化。我們不認為這會阻礙收入。收入方面將是中性的。您可能會看到我們為此所做的一些小事。但其中大部分只是透過不同的方式幫助客戶交付。不同定價的東西。我們可以對替代零件號碼採取不同的措施來滿足他們的需求。我們仍然希望照顧我們的客戶並為他們創造良好的體驗，我們只會找到更有效的方法來做到這一點。

Okay. Thanks, Stephen. Okay. This concludes our question-and-answer session and the earnings call. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Robin and Jeff will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have further questions. Thank you. Enjoy the rest of your day.

好的。謝謝，史蒂芬。好的。我們的問答環節和財報電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家今天加入我們。如果您還有其他問題，羅賓和傑夫將全天接聽您的電話。謝謝。享受你一天剩下的時間。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。