派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corporation Fiscal 2021 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, ma'am.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾公司 2021 財年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議可能會被錄音。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人，財務長 Cathy Suever。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, Sonia. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our teleconference this morning. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for a year following today's call.

謝謝你，索妮亞。大家，早安。歡迎參加我們今天早上的電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯 (Tom Williams)；李‧班克斯 (Lee Banks) 總裁兼營運長。今天的簡報幻燈片以及音訊網路廣播重播將在今天電話會議後的一年內透過該公司的投資者資訊網站 phstock.com 提供。

On Slide #2, you'll find the company's safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's materials and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com.

在投影片#2 上，您會發現該公司的安全港揭露聲明，涉及前瞻性聲明以及非公認會計準則財務指標。今天早上的資料中包含了所有非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表，並且也發佈在 Parker 的網站 phstock.com 上。

Today's agenda appears on Slide 3. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing a few comments and some highlights from the first quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a more detailed review of our first quarter performance, together with the revised guidance for the full year fiscal 2021. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. We plan to end the call at the top of the hour.

今天的議程顯示在幻燈片 3 上。我們將首先由董事長兼執行長 Tom Williams 提供一些評論和第一季的一些亮點。根據 Tom 的評論，我將更詳細地回顧我們第一季的業績，以及修訂後的 2021 財年全年指引。然後 Tom 將提供一些摘要評論，我們將開始提問—— - 回答會議。我們計劃在整點結束通話。

Please refer now to Slide 4, and Tom will get us started.

現在請參閱幻燈片 4，湯姆將帶我們開始。

Thank you, Cathy, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for your participation today. I hope that you, your family and your friends are all safe and healthy.

謝謝你，凱西，大家早安。感謝您今天的參與。我希望您、您的家人和朋友都安全健康。

So before I go through the quarter results, I wanted to highlight Slide 4, which is really our strategic positioning slide on one page. It's how we create value for our customers, our shareholders and our people. And I'm going to highlight some of these through the course of my remarks in the opening slides here. But really, the output of all these differentiators is really that last bullet. It enables us to be great generators and deployers of cash over the cycle, which is a proven strength of ours that has only gotten better over the years. This list is what sets us apart. It is what enables us to be a top-quartile company. Hopefully, a company that you'll want to be a shareholder of.

因此，在查看季度業績之前，我想重點介紹投影片 4，這實際上是我們在一頁上的策略性定位投影片。這就是我們為客戶、股東和員工創造價值的方式。我將在開頭幻燈片中的發言中強調其中的一些內容。但實際上，所有這些差異化因素的輸出實際上是最後一個要點。它使我們能夠在整個週期中成為偉大的現金產生者和部署者，這是我們經過驗證的優勢，而且多年來只會變得更好。這份清單讓我們與眾不同。這使我們能夠成為排名前四分之一的公司。希望這是一家您想成為股東的公司。

If you go to Slide 5. This is one of those competitive differentiators, which is the breadth of our technologies. This is a portfolio of 8-motion control technologies that are all interconnected and complementary to each other. It's how we bring value to customers. It's how we solve problems for our customers. Our customers see the value in it, too. It has 60% of our revenue comes from customers who buy from 4 or more of these technologies.

如果你看投影片 5。這就是我們的競爭優勢之一，也就是我們技術的廣度。這是 8 項運動控制技術的組合，這些技術都是相互關聯且互補的。這就是我們為客戶帶來價值的方式。這就是我們為客戶解決問題的方式。我們的客戶也看到了其中的價值。我們 60% 的收入來自購買 4 種或更多此類技術的客戶。

So if you go to Slide 6, we'll talk about the quarter. It was an outstanding quarter, great results really in the face of unprecedented times. And a big thank you goes out to our entire global team for all their hard work, dedication and the great results here.

因此，如果您轉到投影片 6，我們將討論該季度。這是一個出色的季度，面對前所未有的時代，確實取得了巨大的成果。非常感謝我們整個全球團隊的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和取得的出色成果。

So starting with the first bullet, something that we take great pride in. We are a top-quartile safety performance company. In addition to that, we continue to reduce recordable injuries and incidents by 31%. Sales declined 3%. Organic decline was 13% year-over-year, but that showed nice improvement versus the prior quarter, which was a 21% decline. So we are pleased to see the progress there.

因此，從第一點開始，我們對此感到非常自豪。我們是一家安全績效排名前四分之一的公司。除此之外，我們繼續將可記錄傷害和事故減少 31%。銷售額下降 3%。有機年減 13%，但與上一季下降 21% 相比，情況有了很大改善。因此，我們很高興看到那裡的進展。

EBITDA margin was 19.5% as reported or 20.1% adjusted. That makes 2 quarters in a row that we've been greater than 20% EBITDA margins we're excited about, and it was 100 basis point improvement versus the prior year.

報告的 EBITDA 利潤率為 19.5%，調整後為 20.1%。這使得我們連續兩個季度的 EBITDA 利潤率超過 20%，我們對此感到興奮，而且與前一年相比提高了 100 個基點。

We did a great job on debt reduction. We paid down debt in the quarter of $557 million. And our cash flow from operations was just an outstanding level at 22.8%.

我們在削減債務方面做得很好。我們在本季償還了 5.57 億美元的債務。我們的營運現金流達到了 22.8% 的出色水準。

So I call your attention to a little table at the bottom of the page. And go to that last row, the total segment operating margin adjusted row. See, we came in at 19.9% for the quarter. That was 110 basis point improvement versus the prior year.

因此，我請您注意頁面底部的一個小表格。轉到最後一行，調整後的部門營業利潤總額。看，本季我們的成長率為 19.9%。與前一年相比，提高了 110 個基點。

Our decrementals were just terrific. If you look at our decrementals on an adjusted basis with acquisitions, they were favorable, meaning that we had less sales and we had more income versus the prior year. On a legacy basis, so Parker without acquisitions, again on an adjusted basis, was a 14% decremental. Just great results by the operating team.

我們的減量非常棒。如果你在調整後的收購基礎上查看我們的減量，你會發現它們是有利的，這意味著與前一年相比，我們的銷售額減少了，收入增加了。在傳統基礎上，帕克在沒有收購的情況下，同樣在調整後的基礎上，減少了 14%。營運團隊取得了巨大的成果。

So if we go to Slide 7. The deleveraging progress has been just dynamite. You can see we paid down $2 billion worth of debt in the last 11 months. We've now paid off 37% of the LORD and Exotic transaction debt. And you can see the multiples, whether it's on a gross basis or on a net basis, we continue to make nice progress reducing those leverage multiples. So we're very proud of that.

因此，如果我們看投影片 7。去槓桿化的進展簡直是爆炸性的。您可以看到我們在過去 11 個月內償還了價值 20 億美元的債務。我們現在已經還清了 Lord 和 Exotic 交易債務的 37%。你可以看到倍數，無論是總量還是淨值，我們在降低槓桿倍數方面都繼續取得了良好進展。所以我們對此感到非常自豪。

Moving to Slide 8. These outstanding results are really underpinned by a couple of factors versus the prior period restructuring that we've done, The Win Strategy and the performance enhancements that it's driving and the speed and agility of our pandemic response.

轉到幻燈片 8。與我們之前進行的重組相比，這些出色的業績實際上是由幾個因素支撐的，即獲勝策略及其推動的績效增強以及我們應對流行病的速度和敏捷性。

And just for clarification, when you look at these numbers, these are cost-out actions that represent the savings that are recognized in the year as a result of our pandemic response. The incremental amount is footnoted at the bottom of this page. That was $210 million year-over-year incremental.

需要澄清的是，當你查看這些數字時，這些都是成本支出行動，代表了我們在這一年因應對流行病而確認的節省。增量金額附在本頁底部的註腳。年增為 2.1 億美元。

But the big thing that I want to make a point on this page is the shift to more permanent reductions. And while we didn't put it on here -- we didn't put Q4. But if you go back and look at your Q4 notes, we were 90% discretionary, 10% permanent. This quarter, Q1, we are now 30% permanent and moving to a full year of 60% permanent.

但我想在本頁上強調的一件大事是轉向更永久性的削減。雖然我們沒有把它放在這裡——但我們沒有把 Q4 放在這裡。但如果你回頭看看你的第四季筆記，你會發現我們 90% 是隨意的，10% 是永久的。本季度，即第一季度，我們現在的永久性比例為 30%，並將轉向全年 60% 的永久性。

If you just go to that full year section of the page and looking at FY '21, see $175 million discretionary. It's a little bit less than what we showed you last quarter, primarily because our volume is better, and we didn't need to and act as many of those discretionary type of actions.

如果您只轉到該頁面的全年部分並查看 21 財年，您會看到 1.75 億美元的可自由支配資金。這比我們上個季度向您展示的要少一些，主要是因為我們的數量更好，而且我們不需要也不需要採取許多酌情類型的行動。

Most of our wage reductions have been restored to normal effective October 1, with some minor exceptions in countries where those government support supplementary income or short work weeks, which we've continued.

我們的大部分工資削減已恢復至正常水平，自 10 月 1 日起生效，但在政府支持補充收入或短工作週的國家中，有一些小例外，我們仍在繼續這樣做。

Permanent actions stayed the same at $250 million, and we're right on track to deliver that. And really, I think this bodes well when you look at the shift to more permanent actions for the remainder of FY '21, it sets us up very nicely for FY '22.

永久行動保持不變，為 2.5 億美元，我們正朝著實現這一目標的方向前進。事實上，我認為這是一個好兆頭，當你看到 21 財年剩餘時間轉向更持久的行動時，它為我們 22 財年做好了很好的準備。

So if we go to the next slide, we talk about our transformation. And clearly, I'm going to show you a couple of numbers here. Hopefully, you're going to believe the company is definitely transformed. And we'll talk about how, and we'll talk about more importantly where we're going to go in the future.

因此，如果我們轉到下一張投影片，我們將討論我們的轉型。顯然，我將在這裡向您展示一些數字。希望您會相信公司肯定已經發生了轉變。我們將討論如何進行，更重要的是我們將討論未來的發展方向。

Next page is on the how portion of it. It's been a combination of portfolio of things we've done as well as just sheer performance improvements. And on the performance side, it all starts with the Parker business system, which is The Win Strategy; and 2 major updates that we've made that you're familiar with, which is really propelling our performance. We simplified the organization from a structure standpoint. And we acquired 3 outstanding companies that were accretive on growth, margins and cash flow. And they're performing very well during the pandemic.

下一頁是關於如何部分的。這是我們所做的事情以及純粹的性能改進的組合。而在業績方面，這一切都始於派克的業務體系，也就是The Win Strategy；以及我們所做的兩項您熟悉的重大更新，這確實推動了我們的表現。我們從結構的角度簡化了組織。我們收購了 3 家在成長、利潤和現金流方面都取得了成長的優秀公司。而且在疫情期間，他們的表現也非常好。

And I think the best evidence, which is the slide you've seen before is on Slide 11, which is the transformation across the last 5 manufacturing sessions on how we've been raising the floor operating margin. We wanted to put this slide in again because we've updated it based on the latest adjustments, where we include deal-related amortization in our adjustments. And we did that through all the prior periods.

我認為最好的證據，也就是您之前見過的幻燈片，是幻燈片 11，它是過去 5 個製造會議中關於我們如何提高車間運作利潤率的轉變。我們想再次放入這張投影片，因為我們已經根據最新的調整對其進行了更新，其中我們在調整中包含了與交易相關的攤銷。我們在之前的所有時期都這樣做了。

So the reported in change, that's in gray, and gold is the adjusted. And you can see that the improvement now is even more pronounced, 1,100 basis points over this period of time. Just dramatic improvement. And obviously, we intend to keep moving in this direction.

因此，報告的變化是灰色的，金色是調整後的。你可以看到現在的改善更加明顯，這段時間提高了1100個基點。只是戲劇性的進步。顯然，我們打算繼續朝這個方向前進。

If you go to Slide 12. We're going to talk more about the future now and where we're going. And it's going to be all around Win Strategy 3.0, which we just recently changed in our purpose statement, which is in that blue box then at the bottom. Both of these changes have created excitement within the company and an inspiration from our people on that higher purpose that we're all trying to live up to.

如果你看投影片 12。我們現在將更深入討論未來以及我們的發展方向。一切都將圍繞獲勝策略 3.0，我們最近剛剛在目標聲明中進行了更改，位於底部的藍色框中。這兩項變化都在公司內部引起了興奮，並激勵我們的員工實現我們都在努力實現的更高目標。

Slide 13, where I'm going to spend a little bit of time going through 3.0 to give you a little more context and color as to why we think our future performance is going to continue to accelerate. I'm going to make a comment on each one of these.

在投影片 13 中，我將花一點時間介紹 3.0，以便為您提供更多背景資訊和色彩，讓您了解為什麼我們認為我們未來的表現將繼續加速。我將對其中的每一項做出評論。

So start with simplification. You've seen what we've done on structural things, and organization design work continues. Simplification is going to expand into more 80/20 and Simple by Design. And of course, you're all familiar with 80/20. For us, it's still early days with lots of upside.

所以從簡化開始。您已經看到了我們在結構方面所做的工作，並且組織設計工作仍在繼續。簡化將擴展到更多 80/20 和 Simple by Design。當然，你們都熟悉 80/20。對我們來說，現在還處於早期階段，還有很多好處。

The Simple by Design is the realization that 70% of your cost is tied up in how you design the product. And what we want for our company is design excellence and operating excellence. We want both of those things. And the way you get design excellence is through Simple by Design. It's going to have 3 major buckets that's going to be a complexity assessment of our existing and new designs. We're going to use 4 guiding principles on how we design products. We're going to design with forward thinking. We're going to design to reduce how we use material. We're going to design to reuse things that we use across the company. We're going to design the flow. And we're going to enable all this with the use of AI, which is going to allow our engineers to be able to do these things in a much faster and knowledgeable fashion.

「設計簡單」是指您認識到 70% 的成本與產品的設計方式有關。我們對公司的要求是卓越的設計和卓越的營運。我們想要這兩樣東西。獲得卓越設計的方法就是透過「簡單設計」。它將有 3 個主要部分，這將是對我們現有和新設計的複雜性評估。我們將使用 4 個指導原則來設計產品。我們將以前瞻性思維進行設計。我們將透過設計來減少材料的使用。我們將進行設計以重複利用整個公司使用的東西。我們將設計流程。我們將透過使用人工智慧來實現這一切，這將使我們的工程師能夠以更快、更專業的方式完成這些事情。

Second bullet is innovation. In our [stage gate] process, we call internally Winovation. So that's taking an idea to launch for a new product. And we're making 3 changes there. One is in metrics, and that's called PVI, product vitality index, another new metric for most of you be familiar with this. It's the percent of revenue that comes from new products and things that we've launched and commercialized over the last 5 years. We're holding people accountable to that, and we're seeing nice progress.

第二點是創新。在我們的[階段門]流程中，我們在內部呼叫Winovation。這就是推出新產品的想法。我們正在那裡進行 3 項更改。其中一個是指標，稱為 PVI，產品活力指數，這是大多數人都熟悉的另一個新指標。這是來自我們過去 5 年推出和商業化的新產品和產品的收入百分比。我們正在讓人們對此負責，並且我們看到了良好的進展。

We've also included 2 key process changes. One is new product blueprinting, which is an outside-in orientation for engineers. So it's spending more time with customers and end users to understand their pain points and their needs so that we design and develop better products to solve those. And of course, Simple by Design is embedded into the new Winovation as well.

我們也進行了 2 項關鍵流程變更。一是新產品藍圖，這是工程師從外到內的導向。因此，我們需要花更多時間與客戶和最終用戶交流，並了解他們的痛點和需求，以便我們設計和開發更好的產品來解決這些問題。當然，Simple by Design 也嵌入了新的 Winovation 中。

Third bullet is digital leadership. Now we put this on there before the pandemic but, of course, with the pandemic, this is even more important. We've got 4 big areas that when we say digital leadership, we mean 4 things: digital customer experience; digital products, which would be IoT; digital operations; and then digital productivity. And digital productivity is where we would do include our data analytics and artificial intelligence.

第三點是數位化領導力。現在我們在大流行之前就把它放在那裡，但當然，隨著大流行，這一點更加重要。我們有 4 大領域，當我們說數位化領導力時，我們指的是 4 件事：數位化客戶體驗；數位產品，即物聯網；數位化營運；然後是數位生產力。數位生產力是我們將數據分析和人工智慧納入其中的地方。

Next bullet is growing distribution. We just want to continue the great progress we've been making, especially growing international distribution. The next one is kaizen and kaizen -- our brand at kaizen is unique. And it's really combining kaizen; our high-performance team structure, which is how we build the company; our natural work teams; and that ownership that creates in our plants, warehouses and the offices; and the use of Lean.

下一個要點是不斷增長的分佈。我們只是想繼續我們已經取得的巨大進步，特別是不斷成長的國際發行。下一個是kaizen和kaizen——我們的kaizen品牌是獨一無二的。它確實結合了改善；我們的高績效團隊結構，這就是我們建立公司的方式；我們自然的工作團隊；以及在我們的工廠、倉庫和辦公室中創造的所有權；以及精益的使用。

And I would just tell you that COVID has not slowed us down 1 second on the use of kaizen. We are continuing to have the same activity and the same results. We're very pleased with that progress.

我只想告訴你，新冠疫情並沒有讓我們對改善的使用放慢一秒鐘。我們將繼續進行相同的活動並獲得相同的結果。我們對這項進展感到非常滿意。

On the acquisition front, we want to be the consolidator of choice and continue to buy great companies like you've seen us do the last several years. And then underpinning all this and supporting this is going to be a new incentive program, which is called the Annual Cash Incentive Program, so ACIP for short. And we're going to roll this out over the next 2 years, FY '22 and '23. We've been piled again over the last 2 years, '20 and '21. And it's going to replace return on net assets as our annual incentive.

在收購方面，我們希望成為首選的整合者，並繼續收購偉大的公司，就像您在過去幾年中看到的那樣。然後，支撐這一切的將是一個新的激勵計劃，稱為年度現金激勵計劃，簡稱 ACIP。我們將在未來 2 年（即 22 財年和 23 財年）推出此功能。在過去的兩年裡，20 年和 21 年，我們再次陷入困境。它將取代淨資產回報率作為我們的年度激勵措施。

It's going to have 3 simple components: earnings, revenue and cash. So it will be easy to explain, easier for our people to understand. Those 3 metrics are highly aligned to total shareholder return. And this will provide a better linkage to our annual performance. So we feel very excited to continuing the performance changes we've been making and the performance lift we're going to get with 3.0 that the transformation that you've seen is going to continue in the future.

它將由三個簡單的組成部分：收益、收入和現金。這樣就很容易解釋，也更容易讓我們的人民理解。這三個指標與股東總回報高度一致。這將為我們的年度業績提供更好的聯繫。因此，我們對繼續進行我們一直在進行的性能更改以及我們將在 3.0 中獲得的性能提升感到非常興奮，您所看到的轉變將在未來繼續下去。

Moving to Slide 14. You probably saw on Monday, we've made -- Monday this week, we made some important organization announcements. And the first one, the lady that's sitting right next to me is strategically positioned 6 feet away from me, though. Cathy Suever is retiring January 1. This is part of Cathy's long-term plan. And she has 33 years with the company and 33 great years. And that everything she's done, she's excelled in, and she basically helped us a tremendous amount. Whether it was bad times in recessions or good times with expansions, it's been a big part of the Win Strategy. And her team -- her and her team did what we did in those acquisitions as a huge led by the finance team and really made a big difference for us. A great example of values and results, and a great example for the rest of our leadership team.

轉到投影片 14。您可能在周一看到，我們在本週一發布了一些重要的組織公告。第一個，坐在我旁邊的那位女士，策略性地位於離我 6 英尺遠的地方。 Cathy Suever 將於 1 月 1 日退休。這是 Cathy 長期計劃的一部分。她在公司工作了 33 年，度過了 33 個偉大的歲月。她所做的一切，她都很擅長，而且她基本上為我們提供了巨大的幫助。無論是經濟衰退時期的糟糕時期還是擴張時期的美好時期，它都是獲勝策略的重要組成部分。她的團隊——她和她的團隊做了我們在這些收購中所做的事情，作為一個由財務團隊領導的巨大團隊，確實為我們帶來了巨大的改變。這是價值觀和成果的典範，也是我們領導團隊其他成員的典範。

So this is Cathy's last earnings call. And I could see she's pretty tore up about that. But she's going out in style because these are fantastic results to do as your last earnings call.

這是凱西最後一次的財報電話會議。我看得出來她對此非常難過。但她的表現很時尚，因為作為你最後一次財報電話會議，這些結果是非常棒的。

Now succeeding Cathy on Slide 15 is Todd Leombruno, and Todd will be our CFO on January 1 of next year. I think a lot of you know Todd. Todd was Investor Relations and knows the company extremely well, 27 years with the company. He's been a Division Controller, Group Controller, now Corporate Controller. And he'll be joining Lee and myself in the office as Chief Executive and CFO.

現在接替幻燈片 15 上 Cathy 的是 Todd Leombruno，Todd 將於明年 1 月 1 日成為我們的財務長。我想你們很多人都認識托德。 Todd 擔任投資者關係部職務，在公司工作了 27 年，對公司非常了解。他曾擔任部門財務總監、集團財務總監，現在擔任公司財務總監。他將與李和我一起擔任執行長和財務長。

So Todd, if you want to just make a few introductory comments to everybody?

托德，您是否想向大家做一些介紹評論？

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Yes. Good morning, everyone. First of all, I just want to say congratulations to Cathy on a wonderful 33-year career with Parker-Hannifin. There are so many people across the company that have you to thank for all you've done for the company, and that includes me. We worked so closely and so well together for so many years. I want to personally thank you on behalf of the Parker finance and accounting community for all you've done and for me personally as well. So we wish you nothing but the best in retirement. And we look forward to hearing all about your retirement and ventures, and we will stay close. So congratulations, and thank you very much.

是的。大家，早安。首先，我只想祝賀 Cathy 在派克漢尼汾度過了 33 年的精彩職業生涯。公司裡有很多人要感謝你為公司所做的一切，包括我。多年來我們合作得如此密切、如此順利。我想代表 Parker 財務和會計界向您以及我個人所做的一切表示感謝。因此，我們只祝福您退休後一切順利。我們期待聽到您關於退休和創業的所有信息，我們將保持密切聯繫。所以恭喜你，也非常感謝你。

Tom and Lee, thank you for your confidence and your support in me for many, many years. I couldn't be more humbled and appreciative for this opportunity. We have a fantastic global team, and we are committed to delivering top-quartile performance and continuing the transformation of the company. Couldn't be happier.

湯姆和李，感謝你們多年來對我的信任與支持。我對這個機會感到非常謙卑和感激。我們擁有一支出色的全球團隊，我們致力於提供一流的業績並繼續公司的轉型。高興極了。

And for the investment community, Tom already mentioned this, but I still remember many of you from my time in Investor Relations. I look forward to reconnecting and also seeing some new faces very soon. Thanks.

對於投資界，湯姆已經提到過這一點，但我仍然記得我在投資者關係部門工作時的你們中的許多人。我期待著重新聯繫並很快看到一些新面孔。謝謝。

So thank you, Todd. But Cathy is not retiring yet. We're putting her to work, and I'm going to turn it back to Cathy for details on the quarter.

謝謝你，托德。但凱茜還沒有退休。我們讓她去工作，我將把這個問題轉回給凱西，以了解有關本季的詳細資訊。

Thank you, Tom and Todd. I'd like you to now refer to Slide 17, and I'll summarize the first quarter financial results. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter. Current year adjusted earnings per share of $3.07 compares to the $3.05 last year, an increase despite lower sales. Adjustments from the fiscal 2021 as reported results netted to $0.60, including business realignment expenses of $0.12; integration costs to achieve of $0.03; and acquisition-related amortization of $0.63, offset by the tax effect of these adjustments of $0.18.

謝謝你們，湯姆和托德。我希望您現在參考投影片 17，我將總結第一季的財務表現。這張投影片展示了第一季報告和調整後的每股盈餘。今年調整後每股收益為 3.07 美元，而去年為 3.05 美元，儘管銷售額有所下降，但仍有所成長。報告結果對 2021 財年的淨調整額為 0.60 美元，其中包括 0.12 美元的業務調整費用；實現的整合成本為 0.03 美元；與收購相關的攤銷為 0.63 美元，被這些調整的稅收影響 0.18 美元所抵銷。

Prior year first quarter earnings per share were adjusted by a net $0.45, the details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures.

去年第一季每股收益淨調整了 0.45 美元，詳細資訊包含在非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表中。

On Slide 18, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $3.05 for the first quarter of fiscal 2020 to $3.07 for the first quarter of this year.

在投影片 18 中，您會發現從 2020 財年第一季調整後每股收益 3.05 美元增至今年第一季 3.07 美元的重要組成部分。

Despite organic sales declining 13% and total sales dropping 3%, adjusted segment operating income increased the equivalent of $0.09 per share or $16 million. Decremental margins on a year-over-year basis were favorable, demonstrating excellent cost containment and productivity by our teams.

儘管有機銷售額下降了 13%，總銷售額下降了 3%，但調整後的部門營業收入增加了每股 0.09 美元，即 1,600 萬美元。利潤率同比下降是有利的，這表明我們團隊出色的成本控制和生產力。

In addition, we realized an $0.08 increase from lower corporate G&A as a result of salary reductions taken during the quarter and tight cost controls on discretionary spending. Other income was $0.14 lower in the current year because the prior year included higher investment income and gains on several small real estate sales.

此外，由於本季採取的減薪措施以及對可自由支配支出的嚴格成本控制，我們發現公司 G&A 減少了 0.08 美元。本年度其他收入減少 0.14 美元，因為前一年包括較高的投資收入和幾項小型房地產銷售的收益。

Moving to Slide 19, we show total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the first quarter. Organic sales decreased 13% year-over-year. This decline was partially offset by favorable acquisition impact of 9.1% and currency impact of 0.8%. Despite declining sales, total adjusted segment operating margin improved to 19.9% versus 18.8% last year. This 110 basis point improvement reflects positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives and the hard work and dedication to cost containment and productivity improvements by our teams.

轉到幻燈片 19，我們顯示了 Parker 第一季的總銷售額和部門營運利潤率。有機銷售額較去年同期下降 13%。這一下降被 9.1% 的有利收購影響和 0.8% 的貨幣影響部分抵消。儘管銷售額下降，調整後部門總營業利潤率仍從去年的 18.8% 提高至 19.9%。這項 110 個基點的改進反映了我們的獲勝策略舉措以及我們團隊對成本控制和生產力提高的辛勤工作和奉獻精神的積極影響。

Moving to Slide 20. I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the first quarter, North American organic sales were down 14.1%, and currency negatively impacted sales 0.3%. These were partially offset by an 8.5% benefit from acquisitions.

轉向幻燈片 20。我將討論業務部門，從北美多元化工業部門開始。第一季度，北美有機銷售額下降 14.1%，匯率對銷售額產生負面影響 0.3%。這些被收購帶來的 8.5% 收益部分抵銷。

Even with lower sales, operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was an impressive 21.0% of sales versus 19.4% last year. This impressive favorable incremental margin reflects the hard work of diligent cost containment and productivity improvements and the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives.

即使銷售額較低，第一季調整後的營業利潤率仍高達銷售額的 21.0%，而去年為 19.4%。這一令人印象深刻的有利增量利潤反映了努力控製成本和提高生產力的努力以及我們的獲勝策略舉措的影響。

Moving to the Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide 21. Organic sales for the first quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 7.3%. This was offset by contributions from acquisitions of 9.1% and currency of 2.9%.

轉到幻燈片 21 上的多元化工業國際部門。工業國際部門第一季的有機銷售額下降了 7.3%。這被 9.1% 的收購貢獻和 2.9% 的金錢貢獻所抵消。

Operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis increased to 19.2% of sales versus 17.0% in the prior year, an impressive incremental margin of 66.5%. The teams continue to work on controlling costs and utilizing the tools of our Win Strategy.

第一季調整後的營業利潤率增至銷售額的 19.2%，而去年同期為 17.0%，增量利潤率高達 66.5%，令人印象深刻。團隊繼續致力於控製成本並利用我們的獲勝策略工具。

I'll now move to Slide 22 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic sales decreased 20.1% for the first quarter partially offset by acquisitions, contributing 10.8%. Significant declines in the commercial businesses, both OEM and aftermarket, were partially offset by higher sales in both military OEM and military aftermarket. The diversity of our aerospace portfolio, which includes business jets, general aviation and helicopters, is providing some additional balance against the current market pressures.

我現在將轉到幻燈片 22 來回顧航空航天系統部分。第一季有機銷售額下降 20.1%，部分被收購貢獻 10.8% 抵銷。 OEM 和售後市場商業業務的大幅下滑被軍用 OEM 和軍用售後市場銷售額的成長部分抵消。我們的航空航太產品組合（包括公務機、通用航空和直升機）的多樣性為應對當前的市場壓力提供了一些額外的平衡。

Operating margin for the first quarter was 18.1% of sales versus 20.4% in the prior year for a decremental margin of 43.5%. Realigning the businesses to current market conditions and strong cost controls are helping to offset the less profitable mix imposed by the pandemic and the lower volumes.

第一季營業利潤率的 18.1%，而去年同期為 20.4%，下降了 43.5%。根據當前市場狀況調整業務和強有力的成本控制有助於抵消疫情和銷售下降造成的利潤下降。

On Slide 23, we report cash flow from operating activities. Cash flow from operating activities increased 64% to a first quarter record of $737 million and an impressive 22.8% of sales. Free cash flow for the current quarter was 21.5%. And with a drop in net income of just $17 million, the free cash flow conversion from net income jumped to 216%. This compares to a conversion rate of 118% last year. The teams remain very focused and effective in managing their working capital and consistently generating great cash flow.

在投影片 23 中，我們報告了經營活動產生的現金流量。經營活動現金流量成長 64%，達到第一季創紀錄的 7.37 億美元，銷售額成長 22.8%，令人印象深刻。本季自由現金流為 21.5%。儘管淨利潤僅下降了 1,700 萬美元，但淨利潤的自由現金流轉換卻躍升至 216%。相比之下，去年的轉換率為 118%。這些團隊在管理營運資金和持續產生大量現金流方面仍然非常專注和有效。

Moving to Slide 24, we show the details of order rates by segment. Total orders decreased by 12% as of the quarter ending September. This year-over-year decline is a consolidation of minus 11% within Diversified Industrial North America, minus 4% within Diversified Industrial International and minus 25% within Aerospace Systems orders.

前往投影片 24，我們按細分顯示訂單率的詳細資訊。截至 9 月底的季度，訂單總數下降了 12%。北美多元化工業訂單年減-11%，多元化工業國際訂單較去年同期下降-4%，航太系統訂單較去年同期下降-25%。

Just a reminder that we report the Aerospace Systems orders on a 12-month rolling average.

請注意，我們按照 12 個月滾動平均值報告航空航天系統訂單。

Looking ahead, the updated full year earnings guidance for fiscal year '21 is outlined on Slide 25. Guidance is being provided on both an as-reported and an adjusted basis. Based on our current indicators, we have revised our outlook for total sales for the year to a year-over-year decline of 3.5% at the midpoint. This includes an estimated organic decline of 7.3%, offset by increases from acquisitions of 2.8% and currency of 1%. This calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended September 30, 2020, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remaining quarters of fiscal year '21.

展望未來，第 21 財年更新後的全年獲利指引已在投影片 25 中概述。指引是根據報告和調整後的基礎提供的。根據我們目前的指標，我們將今年總銷售額的預期中位數修正為年減 3.5%。其中預期有機下降 7.3%，但被收購成長 2.8% 和貨幣成長 1% 所抵銷。這計算了截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日的季度貨幣對即期匯率的影響，在我們估計 21 財年剩餘季度的同比影響時，我們保持這些匯率穩定。

Please note our revised guide does not forecast any additional demand pressure caused by further shutdowns as a result of a second wave of increasing COVID infections.

請注意，我們修訂後的指南並未預測第二波新冠感染病例增加導致進一步停工造成的任何額外需求壓力。

You can see the forecasted as-reported and adjusted operating margins by segment. At the midpoint, total Parker adjusted margins are now forecasted to increase 30 basis points from prior year. For guidance, we are estimating adjusted margins in a range of 19.0% to 19.4% for the full fiscal year.

您可以按部門查看預測的報告和調整後的營業利潤率。目前，帕克調整後的總利潤率預計將比前一年增加 30 個基點。作為指導，我們預計整個財年的調整後利潤率將在 19.0% 至 19.4% 之間。

For the below-the-line items, please note a significant difference between the as-reported estimate of $400 million versus the adjusted estimate of $500 million. In October, as a subsequent event to the quarter, we reached a gain on the sale of real estate of $101 million pretax or $76 million after tax that will be recognized as other income. Since this is an unusual onetime item, we plan to remove this gain as an adjustment to our adjusted earnings per share.

對於線下項目，請注意報告的 4 億美元估計值與調整後的 5 億美元估計值之間的顯著差異。 10 月份，作為本季的後續事件，我們實現了稅前 1.01 億美元或稅後 7,600 萬美元的房地產銷售收益，該收益將被確認為其他收入。由於這是一個不尋常的一次性項目，我們計劃消除這一收益，作為對調整後每股收益的調整。

The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. For the full year, the guidance range for earnings per share on an as-reported basis is now $9.93 to $10.53 or $10.23 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is now $11.70 to $12.30 or $12 even at the midpoint.

全年有效稅率預計為23%。就全年而言，按報告計算的每股收益指引範圍目前為 9.93 美元至 10.53 美元，中間值為 10.23 美元。在調整後每股收益的基礎上，目前的指導範圍為 11.70 美元至 12.30 美元，即使是中點也為 12 美元。

The adjustments to the as-reported forecast made in this guidance at a pretax level include business realignment expenses of approximately $60 million for the full year fiscal '21. Savings from current year and prior year business realignment actions are projected to result in $210 million in incremental savings in fiscal year '21.

本指南中對稅前水準的報告預測進行的調整包括 21 財年全年約 6,000 萬美元的業務調整費用。本年度和前一年業務調整行動帶來的節省預計將在 21 財年帶來 2.1 億美元的增量節省。

Also included in the adjustments to the as-reported forecasts are integration costs to achieve of $18 million. Synergy savings for LORD are projected to be an additional $40 million, getting to a run rate of $80 million by the end of the year. And for Exotic, we anticipate a run rate of $2 million savings by the end of the year. Acquisition-related intangible asset amortization expense is forecasted to be $322 million for the year.

報告預測的調整還包括實現 1800 萬美元的整合成本。預計透過協同效應，LORD 將額外節省 4,000 萬美元，到年底運行率將達到 8,000 萬美元。對於 Exotic，我們預計到年底可節省 200 萬美元。今年與收購相關的無形資產攤銷費用預計為 3.22 億美元。

Some additional key assumptions for full year 2021 guidance at the midpoint are sales are now divided 48% first half, 52% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is split 46% first half and 54% second half. Adjusted earnings per share first half, second half is divided 45%-55%.

2021 年全年指引的一些額外關鍵假設是，銷售額目前分為上半年 48%，下半年 52%。調整後的分部營業收入上半年佔 46%，下半年佔 54%。調整後每股盈餘上半年、下半年分為45%-55%。

Second quarter fiscal 2021 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.38 at the midpoint. And this excludes $0.63 or $106 million of projected acquisition-related amortization expense, business realignment expenses and integration costs to achieve, offset in part by the gain on real estate of $0.59 or $101 million.

2021 財年第二季調整後每股盈餘預計中位數為 2.38 美元。這不包括 0.63 美元或 1.06 億美元的預期收購相關攤銷費用、業務調整費用和整合成本，部分由 0.59 美元或 1.01 億美元的房地產收益抵銷。

On Slide 26, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of the revised fiscal year 2021 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $12 even at the midpoint compared to the prior guidance of $10.30. The teams outperformed our original estimates, beating the first quarter's guidance by $0.92.

在投影片 26 上，您會發現修訂後的 2021 財年調整後每股收益指引的主要組成部分為 12 美元，甚至與先前的指引 10.30 美元相比處於中點。這些團隊的表現超出了我們最初的預期，比第一季的指導高出了 0.92 美元。

With this performance and our continuing efforts to control costs, we are raising our estimated margins, which will in turn generate $0.81 of additional segment operating income over the next 3 quarters. This calculates to an estimated decremental margin of 11.4% for the year. Other minor adjustments to below operating income line items reduces our estimate by a net $0.03. All in, this leaves $12 even adjusted earnings per share at the midpoint for our current guide for fiscal '21.

憑藉這一業績以及我們不斷努力控製成本，我們正在提高預計利潤率，這將在未來 3 個季度產生 0.81 美元的額外部門營業收入。據此計算，今年預計遞減幅度為 11.4%。以下營業收入項目的其他細微調整使我們的淨估計減少了 0.03 美元。總而言之，這使得 12 美元的調整後每股盈餘處於我們目前 21 財年指南的中點。

If you'll now go to Slide 27, I'll turn it back to Tom for summary comments.

如果您現在轉到幻燈片 27，我會將其轉回給 Tom 以獲取摘要評論。

Thank you, Cathy. So the portfolio, our motion control technologies, gives us a clear competitive advantage versus our competitors. We continue to transform it with the 3 acquisitions, and we really feel strongly with the Win Strategy 3.0 in our purpose statement that our best days are ahead of us.

謝謝你，凱西。因此，我們的運動控制技術產品組合使我們相對於競爭對手具有明顯的競爭優勢。我們繼續透過 3 次收購對其進行改造，我們對目標聲明中的獲勝策略 3.0 感到強烈，我們最好的日子就在前面。

And with that, I'll hand it over to Sonia to start the Q&A.

接下來，我將把它交給索妮亞來開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jamie Cook of Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Jamie Cook。

Nice quarter. I guess just first question, on the aerospace side, you narrowed the guide -- sorry, you raised the top line a little relative to before in the margins. But Tom, any view on how you're thinking about the recovery out of the commercial business? And how we think about the correlation between global aircraft miles flown or revenue passenger miles? Like should we expect a greater lag than usual in terms of how we think about Parker's pickup versus those 2 items?

不錯的季度。我想只是第一個問題，在航空航天方面，您縮小了指南範圍 - 抱歉，您在頁邊空白處相對於之前稍微提高了頂線。但是湯姆，你對商業業務的復甦有何看法？我們如何看待全球飛機飛行里程或收入乘客里程之間的相關性？就像我們對帕克的皮卡與這兩項的看法相比，是否應該預期比平常有更大的延遲？

And then obviously, the margin performance was very strong in the quarter. I guess you'll attribute that to Win. But were there any sort of anomalies or price, cost or mix or anything else that was sort of viewed as favorable to the margin performance in the quarter?

顯然，本季的利潤率表現非常強勁。我猜你會把這歸因於Win。但是否存在任何類型的異常情況或價格、成本或組合或其他任何被認為有利於本季度利潤表現的因素？

Okay. Jamie, it's Tom. I'll come back to the margins. I'll start with aerospace. So when we look at aerospace, we think, again, this is just our initial look, is that it will bottom out next quarter for us. But when you look at the components for our full year forecast to the 4 major segments, I'll go one at a time here.

好的。傑米，是湯姆。我會回到邊緣。我將從航空航天開始。因此，當我們關注航空航天業時，我們再次認為，這只是我們的初步看法，它將在下個季度觸底。但是，當您查看我們對 4 個主要細分市場的全年預測的組成部分時，我將在這裡逐一介紹。

Commercial OEM, we've got in the guide assuming a 25% to 30% reduction. And that's basically using the current production rates that our customers have given us times are bill of material. Military OEM will be low single digits, which seems reasonable with the F-35 and the F135 engine tied to that. Commercial MRO, which is one of the questions you're asking, we have at a minus 35% to 40%. And that compares to -- we were at minus 40% in the last quarter. So we see a little bit of improvement there but not significant improvement.

對於商業 OEM，我們在指南中假設減少 25% 到 30%。這基本上是使用客戶給我們的當前生產力，時間是物料清單。軍事 OEM 將是低個位數，這對於 F-35 和與之相關的 F135 發動機來說似乎是合理的。商業 MRO，這是您提出的問題之一，我們的利率是負 35% 到 40%。相比之下，上個季度我們的成長率為負 40%。所以我們看到了一點點改進，但沒有顯著的改進。

Available seat kilometers are currently around 55%. And that's not unusual to see our MRO run a little bit better than available seat kilometers. Airline departures are supportive of that kind of forecast that we've given you out there.

目前可用座位公里數約為 55%。我們的 MRO 運行比可用座位公里數好一點的情況並不罕見。航空公司的航班起飛情況支持了我們為您提供的這種預測。

And then on the military MRO side, we've got positive mid-single digits, really being supported by fleet upgrades and trying to extend service life of some of the older military aircraft and then the mission-critical 80 -- or MC80 initiative were to make sure the fleet is 80% ready to go.

然後在軍用 MRO 方面，我們取得了中個位數的積極成績，這確實得到了機隊升級的支持，並試圖延長一些舊軍用飛機的使用壽命，然後是關鍵任務 80 或 MC80 計劃確保機隊80 % 做好出發準備。

And all those things, we think -- so we still feel good about this forecast. I would tell you, one of the things we like about aerospace is we've been very aggressive on our cost to us. We've taken 25% of our people out, unfortunately, given the conditions. And we are in a position from a margin standpoint and a return on assets, it's a very attractive business for us.

我們認為，所有這些事情——所以我們仍然對這個預測感到滿意。我想告訴你，我們喜歡航空航太的原因之一是我們在成本方面一直非常積極。不幸的是，考慮到目前的情況，我們已經撤走了 25% 的員工。從利潤率和資產回報率的角度來看，我們處於有利地位，這對我們來說是一項非常有吸引力的業務。

And longer run, this will be a longer return. And it bottoms in Q2 and starts to turn for our second half. Over the next several years, with the cost structure we have in place, it will be a very attractive business for us, almost just showed nice gradual growth before it eventually gets back to where it was, which will obviously take time.

從長遠來看，這將是一個更長的回報。它在第二季觸底，並在下半年開始出現轉變。在接下來的幾年裡，憑藉我們現有的成本結構，這對我們來說將是一項非常有吸引力的業務，幾乎只是顯示出良好的逐步增長，然後最終恢復到原來的水平，這顯然需要時間。

Margins for Q1. In general, obviously, you're right, it's the Win Strategy is 2.0 and now 3.0. It's all that restructuring we've done in the past, et cetera. But I do think we had the advantage in Q1. We're pretty much at our run rate on the permanent savings actions because we came out of the gate very aggressive on the permanent restructuring. And then we also still had the peak discretionary actions that we were able to have in Q1. And with restoring salaries, that will come down. So I think that was part of what helped Q1.

第一季的利潤率。總的來說，顯然，你是對的，獲勝策略是 2.0，現在是 3.0。這就是我們過去所做的所有重組等等。但我確實認為我們在第一季有優勢。我們在永久性儲蓄行動上幾乎處於我們的運作速度，因為我們在永久性重組方面非常積極。然後，我們仍然擁有第一季能夠採取的最高酌情行動。隨著薪資的恢復，這個數字將會下降。所以我認為這是第一季有幫助的部分原因。

But when we look at margins, if you compare our first half to second half, we're going to still show a nice improvement in our second half with this guide versus the first half. And like I said in my closing comments, our best days are ahead of us both on the top line and on margins.

但是，當我們查看利潤率時，如果將我們的上半場和下半場進行比較，我們仍然會在本指南的下半場表現出與上半場相比的良好進步。正如我在結束語中所說，我們最好的日子就在我們的營收和利潤方面。

And our next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自內森瓊斯和斯蒂菲爾。

Just like to start with the top line guide. Cathy, you said you're intending or you're planning for that to split 48-52, which I think is what it typically splits for you every year and kind of the way that you typically guide at this point in the year, which also then implies that you don't really see any fundamental sequential improvement in the businesses. Is that the way you've gone about framing this guidance? And if we do see the economy gradually get better as we go through the rest of the year, would that tend to suggest that maybe your second half of '21 guidance could be a little bit better than where you're at the moment?

就像從頂線指南開始一樣。凱茜，你說你打算或計劃將 48-52 分開，我認為這是每年通常為你分配的，也是你在一年中這個時候通常指導的方式，這也意味著你並沒有真正看到業務有任何根本性的持續改善。這就是您制定本指南的方式嗎？如果我們確實看到經濟在今年剩下的時間逐漸好轉，這是否意味著你們 21 年下半年的指導可能會比目前的情況好一點？

So Nathan, this is Tom. Maybe I'll start. So part of what we looked at, when we looked at improving the organic guide from minus 11% to minus 7.5%, was that we looked at our Q2 it being very similar to Q1. The industrial piece, maybe a little better; aerospace, a little worse, as I mentioned, bottoming up. Then we'll see Q3 get better and Q4 be a positive -- or forecast for our Q4 is positive high single digits.

內森，這是湯姆。也許我會開始。因此，當我們考慮將有機指南從負 11% 提高到負 7.5% 時，我們所考慮的一部分是，我們看到第二季與第一季非常相似。工業部分，也許好一點；航空航天，有點糟糕，正如我所提到的，觸底反彈。然後我們會看到第三季變得更好，第四季也將出現積極的變化——或者對第四季的預測是正的高個位數。

When you look at the second half as a whole, we'll have industrial up -- just I'm combining North America and international, has a positive low single digits, aerospace around a minus 12%. So we get to flat because of the aerospace being negative.

當你把下半年看成一個整體時，我們將看到工業成長——我將北美和國際結合起來，有一個正的低個位數增長，航空航天大約為負12%。由於航空航太業為負，我們的業績持平。

I think part of what we're looking at with Q2 and Q3 is just understanding, well, we have a lot of positive trends with order entry, PMIs moving in the right direction and markets moving to more of a decelerating decline -- or shifting to more accelerating decline. It works, so they're not decelerating.

我認為我們在第二季和第三季所關注的部分內容只是了解，嗯，我們有很多正面的趨勢，包括訂單輸入、採購經理人指數朝著正確的方向發展，以及市場轉向更多的減速下降——或者說正在轉變到更加速的下降。它有效，所以它們不會減速。

But the realization that there's risk in the next 2 quarters tied to the virus activity -- and we're not assuming that it's getting any worse, but I think there's a fair amount of uncertainty as we go into Q2 and Q3, which is the winter part for most of the world. And you've got COVID and the flu season together, which creates a bit of an unknown.

但意識到未來兩個季度存在與病毒活動相關的風險——我們並不認為情況會變得更糟，但我認為當我們進入第二季和第三季時，存在相當大的不確定性，這是世界上大部分地區的冬季部分。新冠肺炎和流感季節同時出現，這帶來了一些未知數。

So we still are very positive. But we think it's going to -- the next 2 quarters will be a little bit of a slower sequential. There are still better quarters in the top line that we'd guided to just last quarter. So we are reflecting that improvement. We were just a little bit, I think, realistic as far as what's going on.

所以我們還是非常積極的。但我們認為未來兩季的成長率將會稍慢一些。與上個季度相比，我們的營收仍然有一些更好的季度。所以我們正在反映這種改進。我認為，就正在發生的事情而言，我們只是有點現實。

Okay. Then on free cash flow, obviously, very good conversion and a lot of free cash flow this quarter. That's going to be typical when you're seeing declining revenue as you liquidate your own working capital. As we get later in the year and you're starting to look at more actual year-over-year growth, how are you thinking about free cash flow and free cash flow conversion for the full year based on the guidance that you've provided for the top line here?

好的。然後在自由現金流方面，顯然，本季的轉換非常好，自由現金流也很多。當您因清算自己的營運資金而看到收入下降時，這將是典型的情況。隨著今年稍後的到來，您開始關注更實際的同比增長，您如何根據您提供的指導來考慮全年的自由現金流和自由現金流轉換這裡的頂行？

Yes. Nathan, this is Cathy. I'm glad you asked. We had a tremendous first quarter, and a lot of that came from managing the working capital, as you suggest. I do not anticipate that it will continue at the pace that we saw in the first quarter as the working capital will be -- there will be more need, for example, for inventory. And then payables will also have an impact in receivables.

是的。內森，這是凱西。我很高興你問了。正如您所建議的，我們第一季的表現非常出色，其中很大一部分來自管理營運資金。我預計它不會以我們在第一季看到的速度繼續下去，因為營運資金將會增加——例如，對庫存的需求將會增加。然後應付帳款也會對應收帳款產生影響。

So yes, it will slow down. We still confidently believe we'll be at over 100% conversion each quarter and for the year. It was a great start to the year and will remain above that 100% conversion, but it won't continue at the pace that we were able to enjoy this quarter.

所以是的，它會減慢速度。我們仍然充滿信心地相信每個季度和全年的轉換率都將超過 100%。這是今年的一個良好開端，並將保持在 100% 的轉換率以上，但不會繼續以我們本季能夠享受的速度進行。

But you think it will be over 100% each quarter for the year?

但你認為全年每季都會超過100%嗎？

Yes. I do.

是的。我願意。

Okay. Well, congratulations, Cathy. And congratulations, and welcome back, Todd. I'll pass it on.

好的。好吧，恭喜你，凱西。恭喜你，歡迎回來，托德。我會把它傳遞下去。

Thanks, Nathan.

謝謝，內森。

And our next question comes from John Inch of Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題來自戈登·哈斯克特的約翰·英奇。

Congratulations, Cathy. Great to see that. And Tom, I wouldn't worry about the coronavirus. Joe Biden is going to defeat the virus anyway.

恭喜，凱西。很高興看到這一點。湯姆，我不會擔心冠狀病毒。無論如何，喬·拜登都會戰勝病毒。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

$64,000 question in industry is like when does -- when the economy normalizes, is CapEx, not OpEx but CapEx, likely to prospectively come back? And if so, how do you see the landscape across the multiplicity of your end markets in terms of customers' predisposition to spend CapEx? And obviously, I would leave out commercial aerospace and oil and gas because we know those are pretty challenged. But it kind of is a framework to even understanding where the verticals operating, Tom and Lee, kind of close that, if not even above pre-COVID levels. You have a lot of visibility into that, and we don't have the same kind of visibility. So if you could share your thoughts, that would be great.

產業中 64,000 美元的問題就像當經濟正常化時，資本支出（不是營運支出而是資本支出）何時可能會回來？如果是這樣，您如何看待多個終端市場在客戶支出資本支出傾向方面的情況？顯然，我會排除商業航空航太以及石油和天然氣，因為我們知道這些領域面臨很大的挑戰。但這是一個框架，可以幫助我們了解垂直行業的運作情況，湯姆和李，即使沒有高於新冠疫情前的水平，也可以接近這一水平。你們對此有很多了解，而我們卻沒有同樣的了解。因此，如果您能分享您的想法，那就太好了。

So John, it's Tom. I think what you're getting at is what does the future hold. And obviously, CapEx is a key ingredient to potentially driving more industrial activity. And when we get through FY '21, we're going to characterize FY '21 -- we have 2 quarters where I think there's still a fair amount of uncertainty, Q2, Q3. Q4, we have an easy pandemic comparison. But by then, I think we will have had -- we will round the corner.

約翰，是湯姆。我認為你所理解的是未來會怎樣。顯然，資本支出是潛在推動更多工業活動的關鍵因素。當我們度過 21 財年時，我們將描述 21 財年的特徵——我認為有兩個季度仍然存在相當大的不確定性，即第二季和第三季。第四季度，我們有一個簡單的流行病比較。但到那時，我想我們將會——我們將會渡過難關。

But I'm very optimistic about FY '22, so really for everybody else in the second half of the calendar year '21 and beyond. There's low interest rates. There's fiscal stimulus that's in place and maybe more might come. The vaccine will be there. Air travel is going to slowly resume. Our order entry by then will have turned positive. The end markets are going to continue to shift and will shift it into accelerating growth. Our forecast for global industrial production growth, which is a good indicator of CapEx spending, is positive.

但我對 22 財年非常樂觀，對於 21 日曆年下半年及以後的其他所有人來說也是如此。那裡的利率很低。財政刺激措施已經到位，也許還有更多刺激措施。疫苗將會在那裡。航空旅行將慢慢恢復。到那時我們的訂單輸入將轉為正值。終端市場將繼續發生變化，並將加速成長。我們對全球工業生產成長的預測是正面的，這是資本支出支出的良好指標。

And you couple what I would characterize as a much better industrial environment with our own growth initiatives, and I'm pretty optimistic on what the number of years look like.

將我所描述的更好的工業環境與我們自己的成長計劃結合起來，我對幾年的情況非常樂觀。

The way I would look at it, John, Lee and I since we took our jobs, we faced 2 recessions together and a pandemic. And so it can't be any worse than that. And all indicators that this is a much better environment. And I do think CapEx and people making more strategic longer-term investments will come back more into play, which -- and that will just add to it.

在我看來，約翰、李和我自從辭職以來，一起面臨了兩次經濟衰退和一場大流行。所以沒有比這更糟糕的了。所有指標都表明這是一個更好的環境。我確實認為資本支出和進行更具策略性的長期投資的人們將更多地發揮作用，這只會增加它。

Yes. I think that makes a lot of sense. You called out 80/20 as part of your framework. Just in the spirit of another 80/20 company, ITW has been probably realizing and targeting some share gains to try and take the offense. Do you envision opportunities for Parker for share gains across your businesses and perhaps because, say, smaller players have pulled back? Or conversely, I guess, have -- there've been tougher competitors emerge, let's say, in China, for instance?

是的。我認為這很有道理。您將 80/20 作為框架的一部分。正是本著另一家 80/20 公司的精神，ITW 可能已經意識到並瞄準了一些份額增長，以試圖發動攻擊。您是否認為帕克有機會在您的業務中獲得份額增長，也許是因為較小的參與者已經退出？或者相反，我想，已經出現了更強大的競爭對手，比如說在中國？

Absolutely, John. It's Tom again. We think that there's a big opportunity there, and we track that now. That's part of our quarterly cadence. We have all the commercial leaders present top accounts' share in the prior quarter or share of the next quarter. And it's going to be able to a multitude of things, and a lot of it's on the Win Strategy. It starts with creating a great customer experience for our customers. That's the first thing you got to do to grow.

絕對是，約翰。又是湯姆。我們認為那裡有一個巨大的機會，我們現在正在追蹤它。這是我們季度節奏的一部分。我們讓所有商業領袖展示了上一季或下一季頂級客戶的份額。它將能夠做很多事情，其中​​很多都與制勝戰略有關。首先是為我們的客戶創造良好的客戶體驗。這是你成長要做的第一件事。

And then we think with Winovation, Simple by Design and all the other things that we're doing, we have an opportunity to take share. We have obviously gotten stronger through this, and we think we can take advantage of that. Our service capabilities have gotten better. We've acquired companies that are growing faster than -- and we were doing extremely well, and they're adding to our offering to customers and creating more value when we go to them. So yes, I do think there's a sheer shift here opportunity.

然後我們認為透過 Winovation、Simple by Design 以及我們正在做的所有其他事情，我們有機會分享。我們顯然透過這件事變得更加強大，我們認為我們可以利用這一點。我們的服務能力變得更好了。我們收購了成長速度比我們更快的公司，而且我們做得非常好，他們正在增加我們為客戶提供的服務，並在我們向他們提供服務時創造更多價值。所以，是的，我確實認為這裡存在著一個徹底的轉變機會。

And our next question comes from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的傑夫·斯普拉格。

Congrats to Cathy. Two from me, if I could. First, just on the margins, Tom, a couple of questions around that, but I was hoping you could just help us a little bit more understand the cadence. It does appear that on similar revenues, you've got a step-down in Q2. I get you don't have quite as much discretionary actions, but it seems like there's still a lot of positivity flowing through. And the year guide is below kind of what you did in Q1, right, as revenues are expected to build as the year progresses. So understand you might want a little dose of conservatism going into the winter here. But is there really something going on, mix or otherwise, that we should think about to kind of understand that margin profile?

恭喜凱茜。如果可以的話，我就送兩個。首先，湯姆，有幾個問題，但我希望你能幫助我們更多地理解節奏。看起來，在類似的收入情況下，第二季的收入有所下降。我知道你沒有那麼多的自由行動，但似乎仍然有很多正面的情緒在流動。年度指南低於第一季的情況，對吧，因為收入預計會隨著年度的進展而增加。因此，請理解，您可能需要一點保守主義來進入這裡的冬天。但是，是否真的存在一些事情，無論是混合的還是其他的，我們應該考慮一下以理解利潤率狀況？

So Jeff, it's Tom. A couple of comments. The implied change from Q1 to Q2 is a pretty normal sequential shift that we have. If you go back and look at our Q1 and Q2 over the years, it's pretty much in the same neck of the woods.

傑夫，是湯姆。一些評論。從第一季到第二季的隱含變化是我們所擁有的非常正常的順序變化。如果你回顧我們多年來的第一季和第二季度，你會發現它們幾乎處於同一困境。

Yes, you are right, in Q1, we had the benefit of all the permanent actions because we were pretty much at our permanent actual run rate, and we had almost all the discretionary actions. So that was a big opportunity.

是的，你是對的，在第一季度，我們受益於所有永久行動，因為我們幾乎處於永久實際運行率，我們幾乎擁有所有酌情行動。所以這是一個很大的機會。

But I would just -- the guide right now is still 30 basis points better than last year. And if I look at just the first half, second half, we go from 18.5% -- I'm talking about the total company now, 18.5% to 19.8% in the second half. So we see an improvement. And obviously, Q4 will be better than Q1.

但我只是想——現在的指導仍然比去年好 30 個基點。如果我只看上半年和下半年，我們會從 18.5%——我現在談論的是整個公司，下半年從 18.5% 到 19.8%。所以我們看到了改進。顯然，第四季會比第一季更好。

So the improvement is there. We do have a little bit of mix headwind as mobile, if you look at our end markets that have come back. This is not unusual. Mobile has come back faster than any other end market, and that's lower margins. But these are still fantastic numbers for us to be in this kind of environment. And to be putting up a full year at 19.2%, we're pretty proud of that.

所以改進就在那裡。如果你看看我們已經回歸的終端市場，我們確實在行動領域遇到了一些混合逆風。這並不罕見。行動市場的復甦速度比其他終端市場都要快，但利潤率卻較低。但對於我們在這種環境下來說，這些數字仍然是非常了不起的。全年成長率為 19.2%，我們對此感到非常自豪。

I know the absolute numbers are solid. Just trying to understand the pattern. And then second, just on channel. Did you actually see a normalization of channel inventories? Or where are we in that progress? And what do you see distributors doing here as you look forward the next couple of quarters?

我知道絕對數字是可靠的。只是想理解這個模式。其次，就在頻道上。您真的看到渠道庫存正常化了嗎？或者說我們目前進展到了什麼程度？當您展望未來幾季時，您認為經銷商會做什麼？

Yes. So Jeff, it's Tom. And I'll start, and Lee can add on. So we thought that what we saw it looks like through the quarter, destocking has pretty much run its course and that we are anticipating sequential improvement distribution. And that when we look at the whole second half, distribution global would be positive. Obviously, especially in Q4. We have a little bit of softness still in Q3. But for a [full side] half, it will be positive.

是的。傑夫，是湯姆。我先開始，李可以補充。因此，我們認為，從本季的情況來看，去庫存已基本完成，我們預期分佈將出現連續改善。當我們審視整個下半年時，全球分銷將是積極的。顯然，尤其是在第四季。第三季我們仍然有一點疲軟。但對於[全邊]一半來說，這將是積極的。

Asia will be positive for both Q3 and Q4. And I think distribution will be a little bit careful in Q2. Most of them are calendar year -- fiscal year companies. I think they'll just be a little bit careful as far as what they do as they go into the end of their fiscal year so they won't get too ahead of themselves as far as restocking. But I do think as they go into the second half that they'll look to probably strategically restock some things.

亞洲第三季和第四季都將表現積極。我認為第二季的分配會更加謹慎。其中大多數是日曆年-財政年度公司。我認為他們在進入財政年度結束時會稍微謹慎一些，這樣他們就不會在補貨方面太過超前。但我確實認為，當他們進入下半年時，他們可能會策略性地補充一些東西。

Lee, I don't know if you have anything?

李老師，不知道你有事嗎？

No. I've got nothing else to add other than the sentiment, by and large, is positive.

不，我沒有什麼可以補充的，除了整體來說情緒是正面的。

And our next question comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科。

Obviously, congratulations to Cathy and Todd. So I'd like to just kind of explore some of the end-market dynamics. You usually give some pretty good details on sort of the puts and takes. So I'd just love to know where you're seeing sort of Phase 3, Phase 4 maybe even Phase 1 in the end markets.

顯然，祝賀凱西和托德。所以我想探討一下終端市場的一些動態。您通常會提供一些有關看跌期權和看跌期權的相當詳細的信息。所以我很想知道你在終端市場上看到了第三階段、第四階段甚至第一階段。

Okay. Nigel, I'll give you the spend through the markets for everybody. Maybe I'll start at the higher levels, if you want the short version. This is by -- what we would call subsegments, and these are all organic numbers. Total company, minus 13%; minus 20% in aerospace; distribution was minus 14%; industrial, as a whole, the whole grouping was minus 7%; and mobile was minus 13%.

好的。奈傑爾，我會給你每個人在市場上的支出。如果你想要簡短的版本，也許我會從更高的等級開始。這是我們所說的子細分，這些都是有機數字。公司總計，負13%；航空航太領域負20%；分佈為-14%；工業，作為一個整體，整個分組為-7%；行動裝置為-13%。

If I take it into a depth below that, and I'll give you just various buckets. The positive end markets, and this would be all greater than 10% positive, was semiconductor, life science, aerospace, military OEM and aerospace military MRO; positive growth high single digits was power generation and rail. We had one market that was neutral. That was refrigeration.

如果我把它深入到這個深度以下，我會給你不同的桶子。積極的終端市場（所有積極因素都超過 10%）是半導體、生命科學、航空航太、軍事 OEM 和航空航天軍事 MRO；高個位數的正成長是發電和鐵路。我們有一個中立的市場。那是冷藏。

The remaining markets were declining, and I'll give you those in the various segments. Low single-digit decline was telecom and ag, high single-digit decline was automotive. In that 10% to 20% decline was distribution mills, foundries, construction, heavy-duty truck, automotive and marine. And that 20% to 30% decline in machine tools, tires, mining, forestry, material handling. And then greater than 30% decline was oil and gas, aerospace, commercial OE and aerospace commercial MRO.

其餘市場正在下降，我將向您介紹各個細分市場的情況。電信和農業產業出現低個位數跌幅，汽車產業出現高個位數跌幅。下降 10% 至 20% 的是分銷廠、鑄造廠、建築、重型卡車、汽車和船舶。而工具機、輪胎、採礦、林業、物料搬運等領域則下降了20%至30%。然後下降超過 30% 的是石油和天然氣、航空航天、商業 OE 和航空航天商業 MRO。

And then, Nigel, just on those -- the phases -- the 4 phases, I would just highlight the big shift. If you look at the last quarter, we had 90% of our end markets, so all those end markets I just talked about, 90% of them said an accelerating decline, which you would expect, even where we were. And now we have 84% of them in decel or a decline, which is a good sign. That's the first sign of healing. You got to go into that, what we call Phase 4. You saw a decline, and you have the opportunity to move into Phase 1, which is accelerating growth. So that's the spin to the markets.

然後，奈傑爾，就這四個階段而言，我只想強調這一重大轉變。如果你看看上個季度，我們擁有 90% 的終端市場，所以我剛才談到的所有終端市場，其中 90% 都表示加速下降，這是你可以預料到的，即使我們在哪裡。現在我們有 84% 的人處於減速或下降狀態，這是一個好兆頭。這是痊癒的第一個跡象。你必須進入我們所說的第四階段。你看到了下降，你有機會進入加速成長的第一階段。這就是市場的旋轉。

Yes. Tom, that's great color as always. And then it looks like you're going to be at an EBITDA margin kind of circa 20% for this year. Your long-term target is -- well, 19%, 20% probably on my math, but your long-term target 2023 is 21%. So I'm just wondering if you see opportunities to exceed that target? I mean what does this year imply? Basically, the trough of the cycle, 20%-type margin, what does that mean for margins going forward?

是的。湯姆，這顏色一如既往的好。然後看起來今年的 EBITDA 利潤率將達到 20% 左右。你的長期目標是——嗯，根據我的計算，可能是 19%、20%，但你 2023 年的長期目標是 21%。所以我想知道您是否看到了超越該目標的機會？我的意思是今年意味著什麼？基本上，週期的低谷，20% 的利潤率，這對未來的利潤率意味著什麼？

So Nigel, it's Tom again. So yes, we're proud of that. We're excited. We won't change those targets yet. We'd like to do them for a full year or at least get close to doing a full year before we do that. But clearly, we're performing better at a faster pace than we had anticipated. And those targets are all pretty fresh. We just want to update them at IR Day, which is just March.

奈傑爾，又是湯姆。所以，是的，我們為此感到自豪。我們很興奮。我們還不會改變這些目標。我們希望在這樣做之前先完成一整年，或至少接近完成一整年。但顯然，我們的表現比我們預期的還要快。這些目標都是相當新鮮的。我們只想在 IR 日（即三月）更新它們。

And to your point, we're doing this in not the best of times. So I think this is an indicator. Those were always goalposts. They were not an end destination. So we have lots of room to grow. And I'm hoping my page on 3.0, which was kind of the Readers Digest of IR Day, gives you indicators that we think there's a lot of gas in the tank here.

就您而言，我們這樣做的時機並不好。所以我認為這是一個指標。這些始終是球門柱。他們不是最終目的地。所以我們有很大的成長空間。我希望我的 3.0 頁面（類似於投資者關係日的讀者文摘）能夠向您表明我們認為這裡的油箱裡還有很多汽油。

But we won't change those until we get a little closer and we've demonstrated doing them more sustainability -- more sustainable fashion. But yes, we are pleased with the progress, and we are going to beat those numbers.

但我們不會改變這些，除非我們更接近，我們已經證明它們更具可持續性——更永續的時尚。但是，是的，我們對進展感到滿意，並且我們將超越這些數字。

And our next question comes from David Raso of Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。

Really 2 quick questions, if you don't mind. The margins for the rest of the year appear to be sort of flat 9 months over 9 months. And I can understand aerospace is down a lot. But even the industrial businesses, you don't really have the margins up much year-over-year. And I do appreciate some of the cost savings are a little less dramatic than we just saw in the first quarter. But when you highlight distribution as maybe ready to restock a little bit or definitely improve to some degree, is there something else about the mix or something we're missing about price/cost that would not allow the margins to improve much industrially? I think when you strip out the A and just do it old-school EBIT, you really don't have the North American margins much up at all, maybe 20 bps year-over-year and international only up 50 bps when it was just up 150 bps. So I just want to make sure I'm not missing something.

如果你不介意的話，真的是兩個簡單的問題。今年剩餘時間的 9 個月的利潤率似乎與 9 個月持平。我可以理解航空航太業的下滑幅度很大。但即使是工業企業，利潤率並沒有真正比去年成長太多。我確實意識到，一些成本節省的效果沒有我們在第一季看到的那麼顯著。但是，當您強調分銷可能準備好補充一點庫存或肯定會在某種程度上有所改善時，是否還有其他有關組合的東西，或者我們在價格/成本方面遺漏的東西，這些東西不會讓工業利潤率大幅提高？我認為，當你去掉A 並只做老式的息稅前利潤時，你的北美利潤率實際上根本沒有提高太多，可能同比增長20 個基點，而國際市場的利潤率在剛起步時只增長了50 個基點。上升 150 個基點。所以我只是想確保我沒有錯過任何東西。

And the second question is simply with the deleveraging pace going this quickly, when do you expect to be able to lean forward and think about the M&A market a little bit or however you want to choose to use the balance sheet? And if it is M&A, just a little lay of the land, kind of what you're seeing on pricing and so forth.

第二個問題是，隨著去槓桿化步伐如此之快，您預計什麼時候能夠向前傾斜並稍微考慮一下併購市場，或者您想選擇如何使用資產負債表？如果是併購，那麼只是一點點情況，就像你在定價等方面看到的那樣。

So David, it's Tom. So I'll give you guys a little more color because the margins are doing quite well. If I just compare the second half of '21 to second half of '20, and I'll give it to you by segment. 20.5% for North America versus 19.8% in prior period. 19.0% in international versus 18.3%. So very nice improvement and then 19.5% aerospace versus 20.6%. So obviously, aerospace feeling more pressure. And we end up at 19.8% versus the 19.5%. So the margins are improving.

大衛，是湯姆。所以我會給你們更多的色彩，因為利潤率做得很好。如果我只是比較21年下半年和20年下半年，我會分給你。北美地區為 20.5%，而上一時期為 19.8%。國際為 19.0%，而國際為 18.3%。非常好的改進，航空航太領域為 19.5%，航空航太領域為 20.6%。所以很明顯，航太感受到了更大的壓力。我們最終得到 19.8% 對比 19.5%。因此，利潤率正在改善。

We do have, as I mentioned earlier, a little bit of a mix headwind with more mobile, and that's very typical the beginning of a upturn. The mobile end markets speed up faster. We saw that in our order entry in the last quarter. And those markets and that customer base have all less margins and when you compare to distribution and industrial.

正如我之前提到的，我們確實遇到了一些混合逆風和更多的移動性，這是非常典型的好轉的開始。行動端市場成長更快。我們在上個季度的訂單輸入中看到了這一點。與分銷和工業相比，這些市場和客戶群的利潤率都較低。

Then on the deleveraging side, yes, that gives us lots of opportunities and as we continue to work down that. Our pecking order, which you'll be familiar with, and first and foremost is dividends. And our next dividend target to raise the dividend to keep our track record going is Q4. And you can rest assure we're going to do that. The next is continue to fund organic growth and productivity, which we'll do that. And that's about 2% of sales.

然後在去槓桿化方面，是的，這給了我們很多機會，我們將繼續努力解決這個問題。我們的優先順序，您會熟悉的，首先也是最重要的是股息。我們提高股利以維持業績記錄的下一個股利目標是第四季。您可以放心，我們會這麼做的。接下來是繼續為有機成長和生產力提供資金，我們將這樣做。這大約佔銷售額的 2%。

We will continue to delever. But as we glide down there, we have an opportunity to look at reinstating the 10b5-1, and we'll update you all on our thinking of that in the next earnings call.

我們將繼續去槓桿。但當我們滑向那裡時，我們有機會考慮恢復 10b5-1，我們將在下一次財報電話會議上向大家通報我們對此的最新想法。

And then there's an opportunity as we go down the glide path here to look at acquisitions and share repurchase. And I think because our cash flow has been so strong that we don't necessarily have to wait until we get to 2.0 again to finally dust off the acquisition pen. There's probably opportunities of properties that are a more reasonable size, say, versus doing a CLARCOR or a LORD that would allow us to do and glide down and basically not be impacted at all, so to be able to meet our commitment to all the credit rating agencies and delever at the speed we wanted to. And then the EBITDA is so much higher now that we can probably absorb some things as we glide down and not miss a beat as we try to get down there.

然後，當我們沿著下滑路徑走下去時，就有機會考慮收購和股票回購。我認為，因為我們的現金流非常強勁，我們不一定要等到再次達到 2.0 才能最終重新啟動收購筆。可能有機會擁有更合理的規模的財產，例如，與 CLARCOR 或 Lord 相比，這將使我們能夠做並下滑並且基本上不會受到任何影響，以便能夠履行我們對所有信用的承諾評級機構和槓桿化以我們想要的速度進行。然後，EBITDA 現在高得多，我們可能可以在下滑時吸收一些東西，而不會錯過任何一個節拍，因為我們試圖下降。

So it does give us a lot more opportunities, and those opportunities will depend on what's available. And that trade-off is something we look at every time.

所以它確實給了我們更多的機會，而這些機會將取決於可用的情況。我們每次都會考慮這種權衡。

Is it fair to summarize that then is the cash flow is the visibility of it, the strength of it that, again, maybe not a CLARCOR size, but the idea of having to wait until the end of the fiscal year to lean forward with M&A, that's not necessarily the case any longer if something could occur before the end of the fiscal year?

公平地說，現金流就是它的可見性、它的強度，也許不是 CLARCOR 的規模，而是必須等到財政年度結束才能推進併購的想法，如果在財政年度結束之前發生某些事情，情況就不一定會這樣了？

I don't know if I'd go that far. I think it's going to be -- the acquisition activity on FY '22 type of thing. I think sequentially, you're going to look at the 10b5-1. You're going to look at dividends.

我不知道我是否會走那麼遠。我認為這將是 22 財年的收購活動之類的事情。我認為您將依次查看 10b5-1。你會看看股息。

Obviously, the thing that we've learned over the years, because we have a pretty good track record of being an acquirer. We work that pipeline all the time. But I think we'd like to see the deleveraging go a little bit more.

顯然，這是我們多年來學到的東西，因為我們作為收購者有著良好的記錄。我們一直在這條管道上工作。但我認為我們希望看到去槓桿化過程進一步推進。

But the point I was trying to make is that once we get into '22, the EBITDA growth has been still high that we can start to look sooner than we probably would have looked in the past.

但我想說的一點是，一旦進入 22 年，EBITDA 成長仍然很高，我們可以比過去更早開始觀察。

Terrific. And congratulations, Cathy and Todd.

了不起。恭喜凱西和陶德。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

And our next question comes from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。

Congratulations to Cathy, and thank you. And congratulations to Todd. Maybe I will ask you more questions on margin pace in the second -- no, I will not do that. Just a question on your hydraulics business and just sort of trying to figure out your performance versus your competitors. A, can you talk about the pace of orders throughout the quarter? And when do you think we should hit positive orders for your hydraulics business, industrial business, yes, month, quarter, however you want to answer it? So that's question one.

恭喜凱茜，謝謝你。恭喜托德。也許我會在第二次問你更多關於保證金速度的問題——不，我不會那麼做。只是一個關於您的液壓業務的問題，只是想了解您與競爭對手相比的表現。 A、您能談談整個季度的訂單節奏嗎？您認為我們什麼時候應該為您的液壓業務、工業業務達成積極的訂單，是的，月度、季度，無論您想如何回答？這是問題一。

Okay. So Andrew, it's Tom. First, I would just remind everybody, our industrial business is not just hydraulics, it's 8-motion control technologies. And if I was to compare my neighbors across the street, our organic decline was 15%. And our industrial declined, if I add North America and international, is more like 10%. So again, I think it shows the more diversified portfolio that we have.

好的。安德魯，是湯姆。首先，我想提醒大家，我們的工業業務不只是液壓，而是8運動控制技術。如果我與街對面的鄰居進行比較，我們的有機下降是 15%。如果我加上北美和國際，我們的工業就下降了大約 10%。所以，我認為這再次表明我們擁有更加多元化的投資組合。

The order trends in the quarter improved sequentially for North America and international. And we actually had international -- we had Asia Pacific and Latin America turn positive in the quarter. And when we would turn positive as a total company, it's hard to pin that down exactly, but more than likely sometime in Q3.

本季北美和國際訂單趨勢季比改善。事實上，我們的國際業務—亞太地區和拉丁美洲在本季轉為正值。當我們作為一家整體公司變得積極時，很難準確地確定這一點，但很可能在第三季的某個時候。

Got you. And just a follow-up question. Aerospace, could you remind us post the Exotic transaction, what was the mix between commercial and military in the aerospace portfolio? And where are we right now?

明白你了。只是一個後續問題。航空航天，您能否提醒我們在異域交易後，航空航天投資組合中的商業和軍事之間的組合是什麼？我們現在在哪裡？

Yes. Andrew, it's Tom again. So the mix right now is 50-50. And in the past, it was about 2/3-1/3. 2/3 -- I'm just round numbers, 2/3 commercial, 1/3 military. So you have 2 things going. You have much higher military content with Exotic. And then of course, you have the commercial market softening. So we're about 50-50.

是的。安德魯，又是湯姆。所以現在的混合是50-50。而過去大約是2/3-1/3。 2/3－我只是整數，2/3是商業的，1/3是軍事的。所以你有兩件事要做。異國情調的軍事內容要高得多。當然，商業市場也走軟。所以我們大約是50-50。

And I think the thing that's really helped us in aerospace -- if you go look at our sales decline versus other aerospace businesses, we're at the top of the list. And we're not thrilled that we declined 20%. But if you compare our decline to others, we're in a top quartile. Go compare our margins to our aerospace peers, we're in the top quartile. Go compare our decrementals, we're in the top quartile.

我認為這對我們在航空航天領域真正有幫助——如果你看看我們的銷售額相對於其他航空航天業務的下降情況，你會發現我們位居榜首。我們對於下降 20% 並不感到高興。但如果你將我們的下降幅度與其他國家進行比較，我們就會處於前四分之一的水平。將我們的利潤與航空航天同行進行比較，我們處於前四分之一。去比較我們的減量，我們處於前四分之一。

So why? The Win Strategy, but it's been the diversification of that portfolio. We have a very diversified technology portfolio. Our percent on engines, commercial, military, bizjet, generally patient, helicopters, regional transportation, it's very diverse. And so that allows us to kind of weather the storm.

所以為什麼？獲勝策略，但它是投資組合的多元化。我們擁有非常多元化的技術組合。我們在發動機、商用、軍用、公務機、一般病人、直升機、區域運輸方面所佔的百分比非常多樣化。這樣我們就可以渡過難關。

And certainly, the 50-50 now in the military content being much more stable, has helped us quite a bit.

當然，現在軍事內容的 50-50 更加穩定，這對我們有很大幫助。

And 50-50 is a -- it's a normalized revenue mix? Or is that a revenue mix post commercial crash?

50-50 是一種標準化的收入組合？還是這是商業崩潰後的收入組合？

Post the commercial decline. We could probably in the follow-up calls off-line, give you an approximate what it would be if commercial came back. But that's like 1,000 different durations. What assumptions you want to make on commercial improvements, so you could have -- I could give you a dozen different answers there.

商業衰退後。我們可能會在後續的離線電話中向您提供廣告恢復後的大致情況。但這大約有 1,000 個不同的持續時間。你想對商業改進做出什麼假設，這樣你就可以——我可以給你十幾個不同的答案。

It's probably not going to be 50-50 forever because commercial is going to grow, but we will have a much higher military component than what we've historically had. It won't be 1/3 anymore. It's going to be...

它可能不會永遠是 50-50，因為商業將會成長，但我們將擁有比歷史上更多的軍事組成部分。不再是1/3了。這將是...

Yes. You guys did even better than Eaton and MOP. So just trying to figure out what's going on here. But congratulations on a great quarter.

是的。你們做得比伊頓和MOP還要好。所以只是想弄清楚這裡發生了什麼。但要恭喜這個季度的出色表現。

Yes. Long term, we're in that 40 to 50 range probably.

是的。從長遠來看，我們可能處於 40 到 50 的範圍內。

Congratulations.

恭喜。

Thanks, Andrew. Sonia, in respect of everyone's time, we'll take one more question.

謝謝，安德魯。索妮婭，尊重大家的時間，我們再回答一個問題。

And our last question comes from Ann Duignan of JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ann Duignan。

Same regards to Cathy, and best wishes. And my question is around, again, the end-market demand and particularly on the mobile side. Can you talk a little bit about your mix there? I mean we just heard from CNH Industrial and AGCO and I'm sure from Deere that the order books for agriculture, up double digits. Maybe you're not just seeing that yet. But just maybe a little bit of color on your mix within mobile? Is it more construction versus ag? Or do you anticipate orders coming through now that the OEMs are beginning to see a pickup in their orders?

同樣向凱西致意，並致以最美好的祝愿。我的問題再次圍繞在終端市場需求，特別是行動端的需求。可以談談你的混音嗎？我的意思是，我們剛從凱斯紐荷蘭工業集團 (CNH Industrial) 和愛科 (AGCO) 獲悉，而且我確信迪爾 (Deere) 的農業訂單增長了兩位數。也許您還沒有看到這一點。但也許只是在行動裝置中混合一點顏色？與農業相比，建築業更多嗎？或者，既然原始設備製造商的訂單量開始增加，您是否預期訂單量會增加？

Ann, it's Tom. Maybe I'll just make a couple of comments about some of the ag markets and kind of our view for the year. And obviously, this isn't in any particular quarter, just kind of summarizing our view as we get towards the end of the year.

安，是湯姆。也許我只會對一些農業市場發表一些評論以及我們對今年的看法。顯然，這並不是針對任何特定季度，只是總結我們在年底時的觀點。

Agriculture for us is somewhat neutral. We see U.S. government support, grain prices up. If I get to construction, nonresidential is soft in both North America and Europe. Asia Pacific is positive in both residential and nonresidential.

農業對我們來說有點中性。我們看到美國政府的支持，糧食價格上漲。如果我談到建築業，北美和歐洲的非住宅建築都表現疲軟。亞太地區的住宅和非住宅市場均表現正面。

But I think it's the small equipment activity that's been positive, has been offset by weaker large equipment, primarily outside of China. Automotive for us is a soft first half but a strong second half. And we see bush and engine platforms starting to turn around. But we see a short pickup in electric vehicles, and we have great content on the whole EV side of things. I'm trying to see if I missed any bit mobile end markets. They're probably the biggest ones.

但我認為小型設備的活動一直是積極的，但被大型設備的疲軟（主要是在中國以外的地區）所抵消。對我們來說，汽車產業上半年表現疲軟，但下半年表現強勁。我們看到襯套和引擎平台開始好轉。但我們看到電動車的快速成長，而且我們在整個電動車方面有很多內容。我想看看我是否錯過了任何行動終端市場。他們可能是最大的。

Maybe mining since that's mobile even though...

也許採礦，因為那是移動的，儘管...

Yes, I'm sorry. Mining, we've got neutral but we see that as a positive second half. I would say for most of these, Ann, when I look through them -- my comment is kind of an aggregate for the full year, but we got ag as a positive second half; mining is a positive second half; rail, positive second half; construction getting to neutral in the second half; automotive, positive second half.

是的，對不起。採礦業，我們保持中立，但我們認為這是積極的下半年。我想說，對於其中的大多數，安，當我瀏覽它們時——我的評論是全年的總體，但我們下半年的表現是積極的；下半年採礦業表現正面；鐵路，下半年積極；下半年建築業趨於中立；汽車業，下半年積極。

So when we look at our second half, with just the minor exceptions of aerospace, oil and gas being negative, everything is either neutral or positive.

因此，當我們展望下半年時，除了航空航太、石油和天然氣等少數例外情況是負面的，其他一切要么是中性的，要么是正面的。

Okay. I appreciate that. That's good color. And then just as a quick follow-up. Can you talk about how you think about the return of the MAX into production and sales? Is there any early aftermarket opportunities as they take all those parked aircraft and have to rejigger them? Or do you just have to sit and wait for production volumes to pick up? How do you think about the restarting of that production line?

好的。我很感激。這顏色真好啊然後作為快速跟進。能談談您對MAX回歸生產和銷售的看法嗎？當他們拿走所有停放的飛機並必須重新調整它們時，是否有任何早期的售後機會？還是您只能坐等產量回升？您對重啟該生產線有何看法？

Yes. MAX -- it's Tom -- I mean, Ann, it's Tom. Obviously, it's a positive. And Boeing had already signaled to us -- our production started in May. We've been at 7 per month, and we're going to move to 10 per month starting in January. So that signal had already started. So this is a good thing. And if you just think about how our aerospace business has performed, even with no MAX and then just now at a low rate of MAX, it's a good indicator. I don't think there'll be a lot of MRO provisioning, Ann. I think it's primarily just going to help us on the OE side. The MRO side will be more after the planes flying and it starts to get some flight hours cycle time on.

是的。麥克斯——是湯姆——我是說，安，這是湯姆。顯然，這是積極的。波音公司已經向我們發出信號——我們的生產將於五月開始。我們之前是每月 7 次，從一月開始我們將改為每月 10 次。所以那個訊號已經開始了。所以這是一件好事。如果你想我們的航太業務的表現，即使沒有 MAX，而且現在 MAX 的比率很低，這也是一個很好的指標。安，我認為不會有很多 MRO 供應。我認為這主要是為了在 OE 方面幫助我們。飛機飛行後，MRO 方面將會更多，並且開始獲得一些飛行小時循環時間。

Thank you, Ann. So this concludes our Q&A and the earnings call. Thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Parker. Robin and Jeff will be available throughout the day to take your calls, should you have any further questions. Stay safe, everyone.

謝謝你，安。我們的問答和財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您今天加入我們。我們感謝您對帕克的興趣。如果您還有任何其他問題，羅賓和傑夫將全天接聽您的電話。大家注意安全。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call and webcast. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。