派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation's Fiscal 2021 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾公司 2021 財年第二季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、財務長 Todd Leombruno。謝謝。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Gigi, and welcome, everyone, to our earnings release webcast. This is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. And joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks.

謝謝吉吉，歡迎大家觀看我們的財報發佈網路廣播。我是財務長托德·萊姆布魯諾。今天加入我的還有董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯 (Tom Williams)；李‧班克斯 (Lee Banks) 總裁兼營運長。

Today's commentary and the slide presentation will be accessible as an on-demand webcast on our investor information website located at phstock.com, and will remain available for 1 year.

今天的評論和幻燈片簡報將在我們位於 phstock.com 的投資者資訊網站上以隨選網路廣播的形式提供，並將保留一年。

If you move to Slide 2, you'll see the company's safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to any non-GAAP financial measure is included in today's material and are also posted on our website at phstock.com. If you move to Slide 3, you'll see our agenda. We'll begin with Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing some strategic comments and highlights from our second quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a more detailed review of our second quarter performance and review the components of our increase to guidance for the remainder of our fiscal year FY '21. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and we'll open the call to questions from Tom, Lee or myself.

如果您轉到投影片 2，您將看到該公司的安全港揭露聲明，其中涉及前瞻性聲明以及非 GAAP 財務指標。今天的資料中包含了對任何非公認會計原則財務指標的調節，並且也發佈在我們的網站 phstock.com 上。如果您轉到投影片 3，您將看到我們的議程。我們將首先由董事長兼首席執行官湯姆·威廉姆斯提供一些第二季度的戰略評論和亮點。繼 Tom 的評論之後，我將對我們第二季度的業績進行更詳細的審查，並審查我們對 21 財年剩餘時間指導的增加的組成部分。然後，湯姆將提供一些總結性意見，然後我們將開始接受湯姆、李或我本人的提問。

And with that, Tom, I'll hand it off to you.

湯姆，我就把它交給你了。

Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for your participation today. Now before I move to Slide 4, I want to make a few opening comments. Calendar 2020 was an extremely difficult year to say the least, for all of us, both professionally and personally, and I hope all of you are staying safe. Our global team has come together like no other time in our history and has responded to this combination of a health and economic crisis. We've rallied around our purpose, in the Win Strategy. We've showed that Parker is an exceptional performer even in the most difficult of environments.

謝謝托德，大家早安。感謝您今天的參與。現在，在轉到幻燈片 4 之前，我想發表一些開場評論。至少可以說，2020 年對我們所有人來說都是極其困難的一年，無論是在職業上還是個人上，我希望你們所有人都保持安全。我們的全球團隊以歷史上從未有過的方式團結在一起，以應對健康和經濟危機的結合。我們團結在勝利戰略的目標周圍。我們已經證明，即使在最困難的環境中，帕克也能表現出色。

I'd like to take this opportunity at the beginning here to thank our global team for this great performance. You're going to see evidence of that over the next couple of slides.

首先，我想藉此機會感謝我們的全球團隊的出色表現。您將在接下來的幾張投影片中看到這方面的證據。

If you go to Slide 4. One of our key competitive advantages are breadth of motion control technologies. We're now up to 2/3 of our revenue. This -- you heard me talk about this historically it was 60%. But now up to 2/3 of our revenue comes from customers who buy from 4 or more of these technologies. It's these interconnected technologies that enable us to create even more value for our customers and create a distinct competitive advantage versus our competitors.

如果您查看幻燈片 4。我們的主要競爭優勢之一是運動控制技術的廣泛性。我們現在的收入達到了 2/3。這個——你聽我談論過這個，歷史上它是 60%。但現在我們高達 2/3 的收入來自購買 4 種或更多此類技術的客戶。正是這些相互關聯的技術使我們能夠為客戶創造更多價值，並相對於競爭對手創造獨特的競爭優勢。

If you move to Slide 5, we just had outstanding performance in the quarter when running through some of the highlights. Top quartile safety performance, we had a 23% reduction of recordable incidents. This now makes 75% reduction for the last 5 years, which has been phenomenal.

如果你轉到投影片 5，我們在本季的一些亮點中表現出色。我們的安全績效名列前茅，可記錄事故減少了 23%。現在，過去 5 年減少了 75%，這是驚人的。

Sales decline was 2.5% year-over-year. You can see it was a little over 6% from an organic standpoint. This was significantly better than our guidance. And about a 50% plus improvement from where we were in Q1. Q2 was a record net income at $447 million. The EBITDA margin was a little over 23% as reported, or 20.8% adjusted. You can see the significant improvement versus prior 230 basis points. Year-to-date, cash flow from operations was a record at 20.4% of sales. And then the table at the bottom there has got segment operating margin both as reported and adjusted basis, so I'd call your attention to the adjusted row, 20.4% segment operating margin adjusted. And again, a giant increase versus prior, plus 250 basis points.

銷售額較去年同期下降2.5%。你可以看到，從有機角度來看，這個比例略高於 6%。這明顯好於我們的指導。與第一季相比，提高了約 50% 以上。第二季淨利創歷史新高，達到 4.47 億美元。據報道，EBITDA 利潤率略高於 23%，調整後為 20.8%。您可以看到與先前 230 個基點相比有了顯著改善。年初至今，營運現金流創歷史新高，佔銷售額的 20.4%。然後底部的表格顯示了報告和調整後的部門營業利潤率，因此我請您注意調整後的行，調整後的部門營業利潤率為 20.4%。與之前相比，再次大幅成長，增加了 250 個基點。

So there's a lot of numbers on this page. You have a lot of companies to track. So the easy way to remember this is this is the quarter we put up three 20s. And we happen to highlight that in gold. So greater than 20% EBITDA margin, CFOA margin and segment operating margin. So we're pretty proud of that, and those are all great results during a pandemic. So just a fantastic job by the whole team.

所以這個頁面上有很多數字。您有很多公司需要追蹤。因此，記住這一點的簡單方法是，這是我們打出三個 20 的季度。我們碰巧用金色來強調這一點。因此，EBITDA 利潤率、CFOA 利潤率和部門營業利潤率均超過 20%。因此，我們對此感到非常自豪，這些都是大流行期間取得的偉大成果。所以整個團隊的工作非常出色。

If you go to Slide 6, we're going to talk about cash flow. Big cash flow quarter, paid down $767 million of debt in the quarter. If you look at the last 14 months, it's $2.8 billion of debt. This is a little over half of the acquisition debt that we took on with LORD and Exotic, just great progress there. You see the ratios in the middle of the page there. Of significance, if we go back a year ago, we were 4.0 and now we're at 2.7 on a gross debt-to-EBITDA basis. And we've now reinstated effective in this quarter Q3, our 10b5-1 share repurchase program.

如果你看投影片 6，我們將討論現金流。季度現金流強勁，本季償還了 7.67 億美元的債務。如果你看看過去 14 個月，你會發現債務總額為 28 億美元。這是我們與 Lord 和 Exotic 承擔的收購債務的一半多一點，這方面取得了巨大的進展。您可以在頁面中間看到比率。重要的是，如果我們回到一年前，總債務與 EBITDA 的比率是 4.0，現在是 2.7。我們現已在本季第三季恢復了 10b5-1 股票回購計畫。

So I'll move to the next slide, which is our transformation of the company. And hopefully, just the last 2 slides are indicative of how the company has transformed. But I'd like to give a little more color and context as to what we're doing. So if you move to Slide 8. This is our strategy summary page, and it's flanked on the left side with why we win, which you've heard me talk about this in the past, this is a list of our competitive advantages and I've highlighted them. So I'm not going to talk about them necessarily today.

我將轉到下一張投影片，這是我們公司的轉型。希望最後兩張投影片能夠說明公司的轉型方式。但我想為我們正在做的事情提供更多的色彩和背景。因此，如果您轉到幻燈片 8。這是我們的策略摘要頁面，它的左側是我們獲勝的原因，您過去曾聽過我談論過這一點，這是我們的競爭優勢列表，我已經突出顯示了它們。所以我今天不一定要談它們。

But there are historical success factors that will continue on into the future. I want to focus most of the time for my next couple of slides on where we're going. And I've got a slide on each one of these bullets. And the output of really this historical success factors and where we're going is that we want to be a top quartile company, and we want to stand out in the crowd, and we think we're doing that. So if you go to Slide 9. The Win Strategy, and this is 3.0. This is our business system. Pound for pound, this has been the most impactful change we've made to date, the Win Strategy. And it's going to be Win 3.0 in our purpose statement, they're going to be the powerhouse behind our future performance.

但歷史上的成功因素將持續到未來。我想在接下來的幾張投影片中將大部分時間集中在我們的目標上。我對每一個項目符號都有一張投影片。事實上，這個歷史性成功因素的產出以及我們的目標是，我們希望成為一家排名前四分之一的公司，我們希望在人群中脫穎而出，我們認為我們正在這樣做。因此，如果您轉到幻燈片 9。獲勝策略，這就是 3.0。這就是我們的業務系統。同等而言，這是我們迄今為止所做的最有影響力的改變，即獲勝策略。在我們的目標聲明中，這將是 Win 3.0，它們將成為我們未來表現背後的動力。

Go to 10. You've seen our purpose statement, enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. This is a statement that everybody has really rallied around and found very inspirational within the company, has enabled everyone to connect their efforts to this higher calling, this higher purpose in life. And really it helps answer the question, how can we help through our customers, create a better tomorrow.

轉到 10。您已經看到了我們的目的聲明，實現工程突破，帶來更美好的明天。這是公司內部每個人都真正團結起來並感到非常鼓舞人心的聲明，使每個人都能將自己的努力與這個更高的使命、更高的人生目標聯繫起來。它確實有助於回答這個問題：我們如何透過我們的客戶提供幫助，創造更美好的明天。

And then given what's going on with the coronavirus and the vaccine, Slide 11, is probably a great highlight of our purpose in action and just how essential we are to the vaccine value chain. And the way to read this slide to go left to right and go in a clockwise fashion. I'll start in the upper left-hand corner. So we're in a development and production phase of these vaccines, mixing, purification, filtration and dispensing. Then you got to get the product moved around. So we are in sterile transport containers, specially designed.

然後考慮到冠狀病毒和疫苗的進展情況，幻燈片 11 可能是我們行動目的的一個重要亮點，以及我們對疫苗價值鏈的重要性。閱讀這張投影片的方式是從左到右並以順時針方向閱讀。我將從左上角開始。因此，我們正處於這些疫苗的開發和生產階段，包括混合、純化、過濾和分配。然後你必須讓產品四處移動。因此，我們使用的是專門設計的無菌運輸容器。

And then all of our motion control technologies are in both air and ground transportation to move the product around the world. You need to be able to store it locally and that requires low-temperature refrigeration. So our refrigeration technologies are at play there. Then when you administer to the patient, again, you need on-premise refrigeration, and then stoppers and syringe seals as part of our engineered materials offering.

然後我們所有的運動控制技術都用於空中和地面運輸，以將產品運送到世界各地。您需要能夠在本地儲存它，這需要低溫冷藏。所以我們的製冷技術在那裡發揮作用。然後，當您對患者進行給藥時，您再次需要現場製冷，然後需要塞子和注射器密封件，作為我們工程材料產品的一部分。

So we're very proud to be part of this value chain and through our customers helping to create the better tomorrow that all of us, as I start this call, are striving for as we try to exit the pandemic and deliver billions of vaccines to people around the world over the next quarters and years.

因此，我們非常自豪能夠成為這個價值鏈的一部分，並透過我們的客戶幫助創造更美好的明天，當我開始這次電話會議時，我們所有人都在努力擺脫這場流行病並為他們提供數十億疫苗。未來幾季和幾年裡世界各地的人們。

So if you move to Slide 12. My last slide for my opening comments, want to focus on our strategies to grow faster in the market. And our proxy for the market is global industrial production growth, which is GIPI that acronym.

因此，如果您轉到投影片 12。我的最後一張投影片是我的開場白，希望專注於我們在市場上更快成長的策略。我們對市場的預測是全球工業生產成長，即GIPI的縮寫。

So on the left-hand side, it's a series of portfolio of things that you've seen us make, transforming the portfolio of the company buying 3 great companies, $3 billion of acquired revenue that were all accretive on growth, cash and margins. As a matter of fact, as an example, LORD grew mid-single digits last quarter, while the rest of the company, total company grew minus 6%. On the right-hand side, is a list of organic growth strategies. And what's interesting about this list with the exception of international distribution, these are all new with Win Strategy 3.0. So I'm going to make a quick comment on each one. So strategic positioning is really our effort to focus on stronger divisional strategies. And we have a cadence with every division. We do 3 a month, and these are extremely productive conversations with our general managers to how they're going to position their division to win versus the competition.

左邊是我們所做的一系列投資組合，改變了公司的投資組合，收購了 3 家偉大的公司，獲得了 30 億美元的收入，這些收入都在成長、現金和利潤方面有所增加。事實上，舉個例子，LORD 上個季度實現了中個位數的成長，而公司其他公司的總公司成長率為負 6%。右側是有機成長策略列表。這個清單的有趣之處在於，除了國際發行之外，這些都是 Win Strategy 3.0 的新內容。因此，我將對每一項進行快速評論。因此，策略定位實際上是我們專注於更強大的部門策略的努力。我們每個部門都有一個節奏。我們每個月進行 3 次對話，與我們的總經理進行非常有成效的對話，討論他們將如何定位自己的部門以贏得競爭。

Second bullet, our innovation. We made 2 big changes. One is a metric PVI, which is product vitality index. It's a measure of new products as a percent of sales, looking at a 5-year period for new products. And then new product, blueprinting, which is that NPB acronym there, is really a change to our ideation process to create better ideas coming into the Winovation funnel. The output of what we're trying to do here is that we want our PVI context, the percent of sales, to grow by 600 basis points over the next 5 years. A more innovative portfolio, better chances to grow, better margins, et cetera.

第二點，我們的創新。我們做出了 2 個重大改變。一種是公制PVI，即產品活力指數。它衡量新產品佔銷售額的百分比，以新產品的 5 年為週期。然後是新產品，藍圖，這是 NPB 的縮寫，它確實是對我們構思過程的改變，以創造更好的想法進入 Winovation 漏斗。我們在這裡嘗試做的結果是，我們希望我們的 PVI 背景（銷售額百分比）在未來 5 年內成長 600 個基點。更具創新性的投資組合、更好的成長機會、更好的利潤等等。

And then Simple by Design, I've talked a lot about that. It's a speed initiative. It's a cost initiative. It's a customer experience initiative. It's a recognition that 70% of your costs are tied up in how you design a product. And Simple by Design is all about focusing on design excellence. So when you put together design excellence with operational excellence, it's a dynamite pairing. International distribution is going to continue from the success we've had with 2.0.

然後是簡單的設計，我已經談論了很多。這是一項速度舉措。這是一項成本舉措。這是一項顧客體驗舉措。人們認識到 70% 的成本與產品設計方式有關。 Simple by Design 就是專注於卓越設計。因此，當您將卓越的設計與卓越的營運結合在一起時，這就是一個爆炸性的組合。國際發行將繼續我們在 2.0 方面所取得的成功。

Digital leadership is really a 4-pronged attack. Digital customer experience, digital products, digital operations and digital productivity. And digital productivity is where we have a concerted effort on artificial intelligence and data analytics.

數位化領導力其實是四管齊下的攻擊。數位化客戶體驗、數位化產品、數位化營運和數位化生產力。數位生產力是我們在人工智慧和數據分析方面共同努力的地方。

And then lastly, a new incentive plan, our annual cash incentive plan. Our acronym, ACIP. And that's going to focus our divisions and the whole company on driving growth, cash and earnings.

最後是一個新的激勵計劃，我們的年度現金激勵計劃。我們的縮寫，ACIP。這將使我們的部門和整個公司集中精力推動成長、現金和收益。

So it's this combination. And it's this combination that's helped us performed better on the top line organically, particularly in the current downturn, and it will be our catapult to growing fast in the market as we go forward.

所以就是這個組合。正是這種組合幫助我們在有機收入方面取得了更好的表現，特別是在當前的低迷時期，隨著我們的前進，它將成為我們在市場上快速成長的彈射器。

So with that, I'm going to hand it back to Todd with more details for the quarter.

因此，我將把本季的更多詳細資訊交還給托德。

Thanks, Tom. I'd like to direct everyone to Slide 14, and I'll just begin summarizing our strong second quarter results. This slide displays as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter and I'll focus on adjusted earnings per share. We generated $3.44 this quarter, and that compares to $2.98 last year. If you look at the breakdown of the adjustments for the FY '22 -- or excuse me, FY '21 as reported numbers, it netted to $0.03 this quarter. And that is made up in the following buckets: Business realignment expenses of $0.14; integration cost to achieve of $0.02; acquisition-related amortization expense of $0.62. And as we communicated last quarter, we are adjusting out the gain on the sale of land that amounted to $0.77. And all in, the net tax impact of all of those adjustments is $0.02.

謝謝，湯姆。我想引導大家看投影片 14，我將開始總結我們強勁的第二季業績。這張投影片顯示了第二季報告和調整後的每股收益，我將重點放在調整後的每股盈餘。本季我們的收入為 3.44 美元，而去年為 2.98 美元。如果你看看 22 財年的調整明細——或者對不起，21 財年的報告數字，你會發現本季的淨收益為 0.03 美元。這由以下部分組成： 業務調整費用 0.14 美元；實現的整合成本為 0.02 美元；與收購相關的攤銷費用為 0.62 美元。正如我們上季度所傳達的那樣，我們正在調整土地出售收益 0.77 美元。總而言之，所有這些調整的淨稅收影響為 0.02 美元。

Last year, our second quarter earnings per share were adjusted by $1.41. The details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures.

去年，我們第二季的每股盈餘調整了 1.41 美元。其詳細資訊包含在非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表中。

If you move to Slide 15, this is just a walk from the $2.98 to $3.44 for the quarter. And despite organic sales declining 6% and total sales declining 2.5%, adjusted segment operating income increased by $70 million or $0.11. That equated to $0.42 per share. So a very strong operating beat for the quarter.

如果您轉到幻燈片 15，您會發現該季度的價格從 2.98 美元到 3.44 美元僅一步之遙。儘管有機銷售額下降 6%，總銷售額下降 2.5%，但調整後的部門營業收入增加了 7,000 萬美元，即 0.11 美元。這相當於每股 0.42 美元。因此，本季的營運表現非常強勁。

Decremental margins on a year-over basis are favorable, demonstrating the excellent operational execution, robust cost containment by our team members really in every segment and every region.

利潤率同比下降是有利的，這表明我們的團隊成員在每個細分市場和每個地區都具有出色的營運執行力和強大的成本控制能力。

If you continue on the slide, we had a slight headwind from higher corporate G&A, just $0.02 that was a result of market-based adjustments to investment tied to deferred comp. And as Tom mentioned, our strong cash flow allowed us to pay off a significant portion of debt on a year-over-year basis that reduced our interest expense that equated to $0.12 for the quarter.

如果你繼續下滑，我們會受到企業 G&A 增加的輕微阻力，僅為 0.02 美元，這是基於市場對與遞延補償相關的投資進行調整的結果。正如 Tom 所提到的，我們強勁的現金流使我們能夠年比償還大部分債務，從而減少了本季 0.12 美元的利息支出。

And then if you look at the remaining items, other expense was just $0.01 slightly higher. We had a higher effective tax rate that impacted us by $0.03. And finally, slightly higher diluted shares resulted in a $0.02 impact, that's how we get to the $3.44.

然後，如果您查看其餘項目，其他費用僅略高 0.01 美元。我們的有效稅率較高，影響了 0.03 美元。最後，稍高的稀釋股價導致 0.02 美元的影響，這就是我們達到 3.44 美元的原因。

If you move to Slide 16, this is a savings from our cost out actions. I know there's been a lot of questions on this, just from some of the early reports. Just a reminder, these represent savings recognized in the year as a result of our discretionary actions in response to the pandemic and volume declines, plus the savings we realized from our permanent realignment actions taken in FY '20 and also in FY '21.

如果您轉到投影片 16，這就是我們的成本削減行動帶來的節省。我知道，僅從一些早期報告來看，對此存在許多疑問。請注意，這些代表了我們因應對大流行和銷售下降而採取的酌情行動所帶來的節省，加上我們在 20 財年和 21 財年採取的永久性調整行動所實現的節省。

So if you look at this, our second quarter discretionary savings exceeded our forecast and now amount to $190 million on a year-to-date basis. We are now forecasting for the full year that discretionary total will increase to $225 million or an increase of $50 million. The majority of that increase was recognized in the second quarter and roughly amounts to $35 million above our forecast.

因此，如果你看一下這個，我們第二季度的可自由支配節省超出了我們的預測，今年迄今已達到 1.9 億美元。我們現在預測全年可自由支配總額將增加至 2.25 億美元，即增加 5,000 萬美元。其中大部分成長是在第二季度實現的，比我們的預測高出約 3500 萬美元。

Just a reminder, as demand continues to increase and our teams pivot to support growth, we expect these discretionary savings to be lower in the second half.

只是提醒一下，隨著需求的持續增加以及我們的團隊致力於支持成長，我們預計下半年這些可自由支配的節省將會較低。

Permanent actions remain on track. There's no changes to what we have communicated previously. Our full year forecast will generate savings of $250 million, and that will be $210 million incremental. And we believe that this will help us generate the strong incremental margin that we have in our guide for the second half.

永久性行動仍按計劃進行。我們之前溝通的內容沒有改變。我們預測全年將節省 2.5 億美元，這將增加 2.1 億美元。我們相信，這將有助於我們在下半年實現強勁的增量利潤。

If we move to Slide 17, this is just a walk of the total results for the company, sales and segment operating margin. And as Tom mentioned, organic sales did decline by 6.1% this year. The decline was partially offset by the contributions from acquisitions, that was 2.6%. And currency impact of 1%. And again, despite these lower sales, total adjusted segment operating margins improved to 20.4% versus 17.9% last year. This 250 basis point improvement reflects all the positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives, the hard work and dedication to cost containment and productivity improvements as well as savings from those realignment activities I just spoke of and really performance of the recent acquisition. So strong execution really across the entire company to get these results.

如果我們轉到投影片 17，這只是公司整體業績、銷售額和部門營業利潤率的概覽。正如 Tom 所提到的，今年的有機銷售額確實下降了 6.1%。這一下降被收購貢獻（2.6%）部分抵消。貨幣影響為1%。同樣，儘管銷售額下降，調整後的部門總營業利潤率仍從去年的 17.9% 提高至 20.4%。這項250 個基點的改進反映了我們的獲勝策略舉措的所有積極影響、對成本控制和生產力提高的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，以及我剛才談到的那些調整活動帶來的節省以及最近收購的實際表現。整個公司的執行力如此之強，才取得了這些成果。

If we jump into the segments, if you go to Slide 18, looking at diversified industrial North America, sales there declined by 5.9%, acquisitions were a plus of 3.1% and currency only slightly negatively impacted sales. But again, even with these lower sales, our operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis increased sizably to 21.3%. Last year, it was 18.2%. So again, another impressive 310 basis point improvement focused on our long-term initiatives around Win Strategy, along with the productivity improvements, diligent cost containment actions and really some increased synergies we're seeing out of the LORD acquisition.

如果我們跳到細分市場，如果你看幻燈片 18，看看北美多元化的工業，銷售額下降了 5.9%，收購增加了 3.1%，而貨幣僅對銷售額產生了輕微的負面影響。但同樣，即使銷售額下降，我們第二季調整後的營業利潤率仍大幅成長至 21.3%。去年，這一比例為18.2%。再一次，另一個令人印象深刻的 310 個基點的改進集中在我們圍繞獲勝策略的長期計劃，以及生產力的提高、勤奮的成本控制行動以及我們從 Lord 收購中看到的一些增強的協同效應。

So if we go to the next slide, Slide 19, for Diversified Industrial International. Organic sales for the quarter increased by 3.1%, acquisitions added 3.2% and currency accounted for 3.5%. Again, strong operating performance here. For the quarter, we reached 20.3% of sales versus 16% in the prior year. And again, same story, Win Strategy initiatives, strong synergy growth and really our teams around the world rallying together in light of the pandemic.

那麼，如果我們轉到下一張投影片，投影片 19，多元化工業國際公司。本季有機銷售額成長 3.1%，收購成長 3.2%，貨幣銷售額成長 3.5%。再次，這裡的經營業績強勁。本季度，我們的銷售額達到了 20.3%，而前一年為 16%。同樣的故事，獲勝戰略舉措、強大的協同增長以及我們世界各地的團隊在疫情期間團結在一起。

If we go to Slide 20 and talk about Aerospace Systems segment. And again, what we'll see here is a decline of 20.9% for the quarter, acquisitions helped us by 0.4%. And again, a small currency impact of 0.1%. Really, declines in the commercial businesses, both in the OEM and aftermarkets. End markets were the main impact, these were partially offset by higher sales in both military OEM and military aftermarket sales.

如果我們轉到幻燈片 20 並討論航空航天系統部分。同樣，我們將看到本季下降 20.9%，收購幫助我們下降了 0.4%。再次，貨幣影響較小，為 0.1%。事實上，OEM 和售後市場的商業業務都在下降。終端市場是主要影響，但這些影響被軍事原始設備製造商和軍事售後市場銷售的成長所部分抵消。

Operating margins for the second quarter was 18% versus last year's 20.2%. This resulted in a decremental margin of 28.8%, which is in line with our expectations and really the result of all the previous actions we've taken to realign the Aerospace business to current market conditions, along with strong cost controls and really helping to offset the pandemic composed of a mix that we're seeing from the commercial and military businesses.

第二季營業利益率為 18%，而去年同期為 20.2%。這導致利潤率下降 28.8%，這符合我們的預期，也是我們之前為適應當前市場狀況而採取的所有航空航天業務調整行動以及強有力的成本控制和真正幫助抵消的結果。這次流行病由我們從商業和軍事企業看到的混合因素組成。

Slide 21 is just some highlights on cash flow. Tom already mentioned this, but our operating cash flow activities increased 64% year-over-year to a record of $1.35 billion of cash. This is an impressive 20.4% of sales. Our global teams are really focused on this, very disciplined in managing our working capital across the world, and we're really focused on delivering strong cash flow generation.

幻燈片 21 只是現金流的一些亮點。 Tom 已經提到過這一點，但我們的營運現金流活動年增 64%，達到創紀錄的 13.5 億美元現金。佔銷售額的 20.4% 令人印象深刻。我們的全球團隊非常關注這一點，在管理我們在世界各地的營運資本方面非常自律，而且我們非常專注於提供強勁的現金流產生。

If you look at free cash flow, year-to-date, we now move to 19%. That's an increase of 78% versus prior year, and our cash flow conversion is now 164% versus 130% last year. So just strong cash flow performance from the team, very impressive results.

如果你看看今年迄今為止的自由現金流，我們現在升至 19%。與去年相比增加了 78%，我們的現金流量轉換率為 164%，而去年為 130%。因此，團隊的現金流表現強勁，結果非常令人印象深刻。

If -- we wanted to just focus on orders real quick. Moving to Slide 22. Our orders came in at flat this year or this quarter, I should say, and that was really driven by plus 1% in our industrial North American businesses, plus 10% in our diversified industrial businesses and minus 18% on a 12-month basis in Aerospace. So all in, we came in flat. And that's the first time in 7 quarters, I believe, that numbers have been not negative.

如果——我們只想快速專注於訂單。轉到投影片 22。我應該說，今年或本季我們的訂單持平，這實際上是由我們的北美工業業務增加 1%、我們多元化的工業業務增加 10% 以及負 18% 推動的。航空航太領域為期12 個月的基礎。總而言之，我們的成績平平。我相信，這是七個季度以來首次出現非負數。

If we move to Slide 23 and the guidance, obviously, we have a pretty large guidance increase. We are now providing this on an as-reported and an adjusted basis. And based on the strong performance we just spoke of in the first half, all the current indicators that we see right now, we've increased our total outlook for sales to a year-over-year increase of 1.7% at the midpoint.

如果我們轉向投影片 23 和指導，顯然，我們的指導有相當大的增加。我們現在根據報告和調整後的基礎提供此資訊。基於我們剛才談到的上半年的強勁表現，以及我們現在看到的所有當前指標，我們將銷售整體預期中位數上調至年增 1.7%。

This includes a forecasted organic decline of 3.4%, offset by increases from acquisitions of 2.9% and currency of 2.2%. And again, just a reminder, we've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates based on the quarter ending December 30, and we've held those rates steady as we look through the second half of our fiscal year.

其中包括預計有機下降 3.4%，但被收購成長 2.9% 和貨幣成長 2.2% 所抵銷。再次提醒一下，我們已經根據截至 12 月 30 日的季度計算了貨幣對即期匯率的影響，並且在我們展望本財年下半年時，我們一直保持這些匯率穩定。

In respect to margins, for adjusted operating margins by segment. At the midpoint, we are now forecasting to increase margins 150 basis points year-over-year, and that range is expected to be 20.2% to 20.4% for the full year. And if you note for items below segment operating income, there is a fairly significant difference between the as-reported estimate of $388 million, and the adjusted forecast of $487 million. The difference is that land sale that we spoke about, that's $101 million pretax, $76 million after tax. That was recognized as other income in Q2. And since that's an unusual onetime item, we are going to adjust that from -- we have adjusted that from our results.

關於利潤率，按部門調整後的營業利益率。目前，我們預計利潤率將年增 150 個基點，全年增幅預計為 20.2% 至 20.4%。如果您注意到分部營業收入以下的項目，則報告的估計 3.88 億美元與調整後的預測 4.87 億美元之間存在相當大的差異。不同之處在於，我們談到的土地出售稅前為 1.01 億美元，稅後為 7,600 萬美元。這在第二季度被確認為其他收入。由於這是一個不尋常的一次性項目，我們將根據我們的結果進行調整。

Full year effective tax rate, no change. We still expect that to be 23%. And for the full year, the guidance range for earnings per share on an as-reported basis is now $11.90 to $12.40 or $12.15 at the midpoint. And on an adjusted per share basis, the guidance range is now $13.65 to $14.15 or $13.9 at the midpoint.

全年有效稅率，沒有變動。我們仍預期該比例為 23%。就全年而言，按報告計算的每股收益指引範圍目前為 11.90 美元至 12.40 美元，中間值為 12.15 美元。在調整後的每股基礎上，指引範圍目前為 13.65 美元至 14.15 美元，中間值為 13.9 美元。

Adjustments to the as-reported forecast made in this guidance at a pretax level, include business realignment expenses of approximately $60 million for the year associated with savings projected from those actions to be $50 million in the current year. And acquisition and integration costs to achieve $50 million of expense. Synergy savings for the LORD acquisition are now projected to reach $100 million. That is an increase of $20 million from our prior stated numbers of $80 million, and that is included in our guidance. Exotic synergies remain and expected to be $2 million for the full year.

本指南中對稅前水準的報告預測進行了調整，包括當年約 6,000 萬美元的業務調整費用，以及這些行動預計本年度節省的 5,000 萬美元。而收購和整合費用則實現了5000萬美元的支出。目前，收購 Lord 所帶來的協同節省預計將達到 1 億美元。這比我們之前所說的 8000 萬美元增加了 2000 萬美元，並且已包含在我們的指導中。奇異的協同效應仍然存在，預計全年可達 200 萬美元。

Just a reminder, acquisition-related intangible asset amortization expense is forecasted to be $322 million for the year. And some assumptions that we have baked into the guidance here. At the midpoint, our sales are divided 48% first half, 52% second half. And both adjusted segment operating income and adjusted EPS is split 47% first half, 53% second half.

請注意，今年與收購相關的無形資產攤銷費用預計為 3.22 億美元。我們已將一些假設納入此處的指南中。在中點，我們的銷售額分為上半年 48%，下半年 52%。上半年調整後的部門營業收入和調整後的每股盈餘分別為 47% 和 53%。

For the third quarter of FY '21, we are forecasting adjusted earnings per share to be $3.54 at the midpoint. And that excludes $0.57 or $97 million of acquisition-related amortization expense, the business realignment expense and integration costs we achieved for the quarter.

對於 21 財年第三季度，我們預測調整後每股盈餘中位數為 3.54 美元。這還不包括我們本季實現的 0.57 美元或 9,700 萬美元的收購相關攤銷費用、業務調整費用和整合成本。

So if you look at -- move to Slide 24, this is really just a walk from our previous guide to our revised guide. We had guided at $12 per share last quarter, based on the strong second quarter performance, we exceeded our estimates by $1.06. And we mentioned this, but the improving demand environment, along with the strong operational performance, some additional extended discretionary savings, the permanent restructuring savings and increased LORD synergies, we feel confident in raising our forecasted margins, which adds $0.85 of segment operating income over the next 2 quarters for the remainder of the fiscal year. So the majority of this increase is based on operational performance.

因此，如果您看一下 - 轉到幻燈片 24，這實際上只是從我們先前的指南到我們修訂後的指南的一步之遙。上季我們的指導價為每股 12 美元，基於第二季的強勁表現，我們超出了我們的預期 1.06 美元。我們提到了這一點，但是需求環境的改善，加上強勁的營運績效、一些額外的擴展可自由支配儲蓄、永久性重組儲蓄和洛德協同效應的增加，我們對提高我們的預測利潤率充滿信心，這使部門營業收入增加了0.85 美元本財年剩餘時間的接下來 2 個季度。因此，這一增長的大部分是基於營運績效。

This calculates to an estimated incremental margin of 41% for the second half. And then some other minor adjustments to the below segment operating income lines are a negative impact of $0.01. And that's a net of interest expense and income tax. So that's how we get to the $13.90. That is approximately a 16% increase from our prior guide.

據此計算，下半年預計增量利潤率為 41%。然後對以下部門營業收入線進行一些其他細微調整，產生 0.01 美元的負面影響。這是扣除利息費用和所得稅後的淨額。這就是我們如何達到 13.90 美元。這比我們之前的指南增加了大約 16%。

So if I can direct you to Slide 25, I'll turn it back over to Tom for some comments.

因此，如果我可以引導您查看幻燈片 25，我會將其轉回給 Tom 以徵求意見。

Thank you, Todd. And just want to wrap things up with these great results don't happen by accident. They're driven by a highly engaged global team. Our focus on safety, high-performance team is lean and kaizen, is driving an ownership culture within the company and it's resulting in top quartile engagement as well as top quartile results.

謝謝你，托德。我只想總結這些偉大的成果並不是偶然發生的。他們由高度敬業的全球團隊驅動。我們對安全、高績效團隊的關注是精實和改善，正在推動公司內部的主人翁文化，並帶來了最高四分之一的敬業度和最高四分之一的結果。

We talked about the portfolio. It's a big competitive advantage of us at interconnectivity, a transformation on the 3 acquisitions and the fact that they're outgrowing and generating more cash and margins than legacy Parker. Our performance over the cycle, but I would just reflect in the last 5 years and just use round numbers, our margins are up 500 basis points. In a 5-year period of time, it was not necessarily the easiest 5-year period of time for industrial companies.

我們討論了投資組合。這是我們在互連性方面的一大競爭優勢，是對 3 次收購的轉型，而且它們的成長速度比傳統 Parker 還要多，並能產生更多的現金和利潤。我們在整個週期中的表現，但我只想反映過去 5 年並僅使用整數，我們的利潤率上升了 500 個基點。在5年的時間裡，對於工業企業來說，不一定是最輕鬆的5年。

And then our Win Strategy 3.0 in particular and the purpose statement, are going to be the powerhouse behind extending our performance into the future. So I give my thanks to everybody for all their hard work and the great results. And Gigi, I will hand it back to you for -- start the Q&A.

然後，特別是我們的獲勝策略 3.0 和目的聲明，將成為將我們的業績擴展到未來的強大動力。因此，我感謝大家的辛勤工作和取得的巨大成果。吉吉，我會把它交還給你——開始問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

Congratulations on a fantastic quarter. Maybe just kind of just starting off. Tom, obviously, it seems like things are kind of coming off the bottom of here, you're starting to see some improvement in the order trends in your industrial businesses, both domestically and internationally.

恭喜您度過了一個精彩的季度。也許只是剛開始。湯姆，顯然，事情似乎正在走出谷底，您開始看到國內和國際工業企業的訂單趨勢有所改善。

Can you maybe just like walk us through exactly like what you saw -- what you're currently seeing and what you saw kind of transpire as the quarter went on?

您能否像我們所看到的那樣向我們介紹一下您目前所看到的情況以及您所看到的隨著本季度的進展而發生的情況？

Sure. On the orders, Joe, we saw if you look at total Parker from minus 12% to 0% in North America to minus 11% to plus 1%. International from plus 4% -- minus 4% to plus 10%. And then Aerospace got an improvement from minus 25% to minus 18%. Pretty much North America and international improved throughout the whole quarter. And from our view, it looks like Aerospace is finding bottom. International piece, in particular, if you look at that plus 10%, that was EMEA, plus 7%; Asia, plus 13% and Latin America plus 27%. So pretty strong rebound across all of the particular regions internationally.

當然。喬，在訂單上，我們看到，如果你看看北美的帕克總產量從負 12% 到 0% 到負 11% 到正 1%。國際航班從正 4% - 負 4% 到正 10%。然後航空航天從-25% 提高到-18%。整個季度，北美和國際市場幾乎都有所改善。從我們的角度來看，航空航太業似乎正在探底。特別是國際部分，如果你看加 10%，那就是 EMEA，加 7%；亞洲增加 13%，拉丁美洲增加 27%。國際上所有特定地區的反彈都非常強勁。

When I look at some of the higher level subsegments, so the major buckets outside of Aerospace, distribution got better, it was minus 14% the prior quarter to minus 6% this quarter. Industrial, things are stationary, went from minus 7% to plus 1.5%. And mobile saw the biggest improvement from minus 13% to plus 2.5%.

當我查看一些較高級別的細分市場時，即航空航天以外的主要細分市場，分佈情況變得更好，從上一季的負 14% 上升到本季度的負 6%。工業，事物是固定的，從負 7% 上升到正 1.5%。行動裝置的增幅最大，從負 13% 上升到正 2.5%。

So we saw all the subsegments improved nicely with the largest recovery being at mobile. And when you look at our end markets in the 4 phases of growth, we have roughly about 30% of our end markets are in accelerating growth and about 2/3 are in decelerating, in decline. So we continue to move all the various end markets into either bottoming out and you saw our decline starting to turn for accelerating growth. And maybe I'll pause, Joe, I don't know if you want me to go through all the end markets, but that's the color we saw.

因此，我們看到所有子細分市場都得到了很好的改善，其中在行動領域的復甦最大。當你觀察我們的終端市場的四個成長階段時，我們大約有 30% 的終端市場處於加速成長狀態，大約 2/3 處於減速、下降狀態。因此，我們繼續推動所有不同的終端市場觸底反彈，你會看到我們的下滑開始轉向加速成長。也許我會停下來，喬，我不知道你是否想讓我走遍所有的終端市場，但這就是我們看到的顏色。

In distribution, we saw an entity stocking, which was encouraging. Our distributors, I would say, cautiously optimistic. They are being careful. There is some uncertainty, obviously, in the next 6 months. And what we're seeing from distribution is selective restocking, in particular, focusing on those longer lead time type of products that they can get ahead of demand and position themselves to take share, which we're happy to help them with that. And in general, what we're seeing from distribution, in some cases, with some of the OEMs is placing a little larger stock orders with scheduled releases over the next several quarters, which are all indicators of people, I think, trying to plan as a few things are turning and start to get ahead of things.

在分銷中，我們看到了實體備貨，這是令人鼓舞的。我想說，我們的經銷商持謹慎樂觀的態度。他們很小心。顯然，未來 6 個月存在一些不確定性。我們從分銷中看到的是選擇性補貨，特別是關注那些交貨時間較長的產品，他們可以領先於需求並佔據份額，我們很樂意幫助他們。總的來說，我們從分銷中看到，在某些情況下，一些原始設備製造商正在下更大的庫存訂單，併計劃在未來幾個季度發布，我認為這些都是人們試圖計劃的指標隨著一些事情正在轉變並開始走在前面。

Yes. That's super helpful. And great to hear, Tom. If I -- can I just ask one follow-up question? And really just focusing on like the sustainability of margin improvement going forward. Clearly, you've got a lot of long-term actions within the Win Strategy that are going to help. But I really want to focus on the temporary cost actions that are benefiting FY '21 to roughly $225 million. How should we think about that beyond 2021?

是的。這非常有幫助。很高興聽到，湯姆。如果我──我可以問一個後續問題嗎？實際上只是關注未來利潤率改善的可持續性。顯然，在獲勝策略中採取了許多長期行動，這些行動將會有所幫助。但我確實想專注於臨時成本行動，這些行動將使 21 財年受益約 2.25 億美元。 2021 年之後我們該如何看待這個問題？

Are you -- is that going to be a headwind beyond this year? Or are there other actions that you can take to mitigate some of those expenses coming back?

這會成為今年以後的逆風嗎？或者您可以採取其他措施來減輕其中的一些費用？

Joe, this is Todd. I'll take that one. I mean some of these things are volume-related. So as volume continues to come back, we expect some of those costs to come back into the business. But really, what we saw in the second quarter was a lot of productivity improvements. This has been based on our focus on kaizen for a long time. Many elements of our Win Strategy initiatives have helped drive that.

喬，這是托德。我會接受那個。我的意思是其中一些事情與數量有關。因此，隨著銷售量繼續回升，我們預計其中一些成本將重新回到業務中。但實際上，我們在第二季度看到的是生產力的大幅提高。這是基於我們長期以來對改善的關注。我們的致勝策略舉措的許多要素都有助於推動這一目標。

But there's been strict cost containment by our teams really around the globe. What did surprise us a little bit was lower travel and lower discretionary expenses. That's why we increased the discretionary expenses for the remainder of the year. Just based on the current situation that we see in the world right now. But we do see that returning. Nowhere will it go back to the levels that we've seen in the past, but we do see it going up from where we're at now.

但我們的團隊在全球範圍內都實行嚴格的成本控制。讓我們有點驚訝的是差旅費和可自由支配費用的減少。這就是為什麼我們增加了今年剩餘時間的可自由支配費用。只是基於我們現在在世界上看到的現狀。但我們確實看到了這種情況的回歸。它不會回到我們過去看到的水平，但我們確實看到它比現在的水平上升。

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Can we start with just looking at the 3Q outlook, what's baked in at the midpoint with respect to organic growth? And if there's any big change or divergence in the incremental margins you're expecting in 3Q relative to 4Q?

我們能否先看看第三季的前景，有機成長的中點有什麼變化？您預計第三季相對於第四季的增量利潤率是否有任何重大變化或差異？

Yes, Nicole, this is Tom. So if I take the top line and maybe to help with the guide for the full year. So we reduced the guide decline on organic for minus 7.5% to minus 3.5%. But I think what's probably of most interest to analysts and shareholders is what do we think the second half is going to be.

是的，妮可，這是湯姆。因此，如果我擔任頂線，也許可以幫助全年的指南。因此，我們將有機食品的指導降幅從負 7.5% 降低至負 3.5%。但我認為分析師和股東最感興趣的可能是我們認為下半年會是什麼樣子。

So the second half, our assumptions in the guide is North America and international, both in that kind of that 6% to 7% positive organic growth. And Aerospace at around minus 11% for the second half. When we look at Q3, I'm going to focus on the top line, I'll come back to the decrementals and incrementals.

因此，下半年，我們在指南中的假設是北美和國際，兩者都達到 6% 至 7% 的正向有機成長。下半年航空航太業的成長率約為-11%。當我們看第三季時，我將重點放在頂線，我將回到減量和增量。

In Q3, we're going to see a slight improvement in the industrial portion of the company, about 100 basis points as there's still some uncertainty. And those orders I referred to earlier on, our scheduled releases are going out multiple quarters. We see Aerospace about the same as we had in Q2. And when we get to Q4, we've got North America in that upper teens, international of around plus 10% and Aerospace getting to flat. And that puts total Parker in Q4 in the low teens for Q4. So again, industrials for the second half in that plus 6% to 7% range. And Aerospace at minus 11%.

在第三季度，我們將看到該公司的工業部分略有改善，約為 100 個基點，因為仍存在一些不確定性。我之前提到的那些訂單，我們預定的版本將在多個季度發布。我們看到航空航天與第二季大致相同。當我們進入第四季時，北美地區的成長率為 10% 以上，國際地區的成長率約為 10%，而航空航太領域的成長率則持平。這使得帕克在第四季度的總得分達到了十幾歲。同樣，下半年的工業品成長也將在 6% 至 7% 的範圍內。航空航天為-11%。

So when we think about the margin side of things, Q3 margins are going to be slightly less than Q2. And that's mainly from the reasons that Todd was describing, we're going to have less discretionary savings in Q2 than we had in Q3. Q3 is going to be around $25 million, and Q2 was $65 million. So you got $40 million less of discretionary savings going into Q3.

因此，當我們考慮利潤方面時，第三季的利潤率將略低於第二季。這主要是因為托德所描述的原因，我們第二季的可自由支配儲蓄將少於第三季。第三季約 2,500 萬美元，第二季為 6,500 萬美元。因此，進入第三季度，您的可自由支配儲蓄減少了 4000 萬美元。

We'll still have a favorable MROS, and if people aren't familiar with what that term is that's basically you have less sales and you get more earnings. So you can't really calculate an incremental, but it's favorable.

我們仍然會有一個有利的 MROS，如果人們不熟悉這個術語是什麼，那麼基本上你的銷售額會減少，但你會獲得更多的收入。所以你無法真正計算增量，但它是有利的。

And when we get to Q4, we've got approximate 30% MROS. I would just make the comment for Q4, really for the first half of FY '22, that the incremental MROS are going to be a tough comp for us. So the plus 30% this is, again, remember in Q4 prior period, we had the gargantuan discretionary cost out, all the big wage reductions at that time.

當我們到達第四季度時，我們的 MROS 約為 30%。我只想對第四季度（實際上是 22 財年上半年）發表評論，增量 MROS 對我們來說將是一個艱難的競爭。因此，再一次記住，在第四季度的前期，我們已經消除了巨大的可自由支配成本，當時所有的工資都大幅削減。

If you were to make it like-for-like and take out discretionary actions from both periods, this would be greater than 60% incremental. And so it's -- the business is performing at a very high level, you'll see margins get a little better into Q4. That will be our highest margin quarter. And if you just look at for the second half, we go from 20.1%, that's the first half total company to 20.7% in the second half. So continued improvement and we're not going to stop there. Obviously, we -- our goal is to keep driving this as we go into FY '22.

如果您將其進行類似處理並從兩個時期中採取酌情行動，則增量將超過 60%。所以，業務表現處於非常高的水平，你會看到第四季的利潤率會有所提高。這將是我們利潤率最高的季度。如果你只看下半年，我們會從上半年公司總數的 20.1% 上升到下半年的 20.7%。因此，持續改進我們不會就此止步。顯然，我們的目標是在進入 22 財年時繼續推動這一目標。

Got it. That's super helpful. And then maybe just as a follow-up, can you just talk about any impact you're seeing to production supply chain with respect to COVID and the level of confidence you have as a result in ramping as this recovery does take place?

知道了。這非常有幫助。作為後續行動，您能否談談您所看到的新冠疫情對生產供應鏈的影響，以及您對隨著經濟復甦的到來而增加的信心程度？

Nicole, it's Tom again. When we look at COVID and its impact, we're mirroring case rates in the local communities that we're at. We've done a great job of, I would say, almost exclusively, our cases originated from outside of work. And we've tried to take the position, we want people to be safe at home and safe at work. But we like them to be the safest possible they could be when they're at work. We're not immune to absenteeism type of things related to this. But it's not been a material impact to us. We've been able to keep up with demand, keep up with our lead times.

妮可，又是湯姆。當我們研究新冠病毒及其影響時，我們正在反映我們所在的當地社區的病例發生率。我想說，我們的工作做得非常出色，幾乎全部都是來自工作以外的案例。我們試圖採取這一立場，我們希望人們在家中安全，在工作中安全。但我們希望他們在工作時盡可能安全。我們不能倖免於與此相關的缺勤類型的事情。但這對我們並沒有造成實質影響。我們能夠滿足需求，滿足我們的交貨時間。

And if you look at us historically, obviously, a pandemic is a unique phenomena. When we have periods of increased demand, we outservice our competitors. It's something we've proven time in and time out. I would love for us to have the opportunity to take share because our lead times and our customer experience will be better than our competitors. So I feel very good.

如果你從歷史的角度來看，顯然，流行病是一種獨特的現象。當我們的需求增加時，我們的服務會超過競爭對手。這是我們已經多次證明的事情。我希望我們有機會分享份額，因為我們的交貨時間和客戶體驗將比我們的競爭對手更好。所以我感覺很好。

And on the supply chain side, we purposely laid out a strategy years ago to be local for local. So we make, buy and sell in the region for the region. So that supply chain strategy, that operational strategy allows us to be very flexible based on what's happening, to not have all our eggs in one basket in one particular region, to be overly exposed on trade tariffs and those type of things. So we feel very good about where we are in supply chain.

在供應鏈方面，我們多年前就特意制定了在地化策略。因此，我們在該地區生產、採購和銷售。因此，供應鏈策略、營運策略使我們能夠根據正在發生的情況非常靈活，不會將所有雞蛋放在某個特定地區的一個籃子裡，不會過度受到貿易關稅和此類問題的影響。因此，我們對自己在供應鏈中的地位感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

And I don't say this very often, but congrats on a great, not just a couple of quarters, but great -- the last 2 or 3 years has been just phenomenal. Impressive.

我不常這麼說，但恭喜你們取得了偉大的成就，不僅僅是幾個季度，而是偉大的——過去兩三年的表現非常出色。感人的。

But anyways, I want to talk a little bit about M&A because you've been so successful in that front, which is not -- perhaps not something folks would have expected out of Parker in the old days, you're going to be down to 2.5 turns of debt, as you said, this year. And are you ready to reload on the M&A front? Do you have an interesting backlog at all that you want to talk about?

但無論如何，我想談談併購，因為你在這方面非常成功，這可能不是過去人們對帕克的期望，你會失望的正如你所說，今年債務週轉率為 2.5 倍。您準備好在併購戰線上重新裝填了嗎？您是否有一個有趣的待辦事項值得談論？

Yes, Scott, first of all, this is Tom. Thank you for your comment and the recognition of progress it doesn't go unnoticed, and we do appreciate that.

是的，斯科特，首先，這是湯姆。感謝您的評論和對進展的認可，它不會被忽視，我們對此表示感謝。

On the M&A side, what's been interesting and we're really happy about the cash flow and the ability to pay down debt is clearly ahead of schedule. And we're going to be in a position to come into this fiscal year, where all of our serviceable debt, the term loans and the CP that we took out for these acquisitions will be all paid off. And our next corporate bond is not due till September of '22, and it's a nominal amount of $300 million. So we are going to be in a position with a much stronger balance sheet to look at capital deployment across all the veins.

在併購方面，有趣的是，我們對現金流和償還債務的能力感到非常高興，這顯然提前了。我們將在進入本財年時，我們所有的可償還債務、定期貸款和我們為這些收購而拿出的商業協議都將全部還清。我們的下一筆公司債要到 2022 年 9 月才到期，名目金額為 3 億美元。因此，我們將擁有更強大的資產負債表，以考慮各個方面的資本部署。

Now in particular, you talked about M&A. So the lesson learned for us historically, is to never stop working the M&A pipeline. And so we're continuing to build those relationships. We are building those relationships across a couple of big themes. We want to be the consolidated choice within our space. We think we are the best -- we're the leader in the space, we think we're the best home, which means we'd like to be looking at anything within our space.

現在特別是您談到了併購。因此，我們從歷史上學到的教訓是，永遠不要停止併購通路的工作。因此，我們將繼續建立這些關係。我們正在圍繞幾個大主題建立這些關係。我們希望成為我們領域內的綜合選擇。我們認為我們是最好的——我們是這個領域的領導者，我們認為我們是最好的家，這意味著我們希望專注於我們空間內的任何東西。

In particular, though, if we only had a certain amount of money and all 8 of the technologies that I referred to earlier on were all on the table, we like to focus on filtration, engineered materials, instrumentation and aerospace. We think those -- you've seen us focus on those to date.

不過，特別是，如果我們只有一定數量的資金，而我之前提到的所有 8 項技術都在考慮範圍內，那麼我們喜歡專注於過濾、工程材料、儀器儀表和航空航天。我們認為這些——你已經看到我們迄今為止專注於這些。

But I would tell you, we like the entire portfolio and what we've been working on is what you saw us do with the last 3 deals, buy companies that within very quickly or within a reasonable period of time with synergies can outgrow, can outpace margins, can outpace cash flow for the base business. And that's what we did, and that's going to be the flavor you're going to see as we go forward. And if we don't find the right properties, we think we're a great investment, and we're going to invest in Parker and buy our shares.

但我想告訴你，我們喜歡整個投資組合，我們一直在努力的是你看到我們在過去三筆交易中所做的事情，購買那些在非常快的時間內或在合理的時間內具有協同效應的公司可以超越，可以超過利潤率，可能超過基本業務的現金流。這就是我們所做的，這將是我們前進時您將看到的味道。如果我們找不到合適的房產，我們認為我們是一項偉大的投資，我們將投資帕克併購買我們的股票。

Makes sense, Tom. Can you talk a little bit about how when you do a deal, how do you integrate it? I mean, how do you bring or how do you bring win into an asset? Do you come in with all the tools? Do you come in with lean first? Or is there some sort of a -- or is it case by case? Is there a playbook? I don't think I've ever heard you guys talk about that. I'm just kind of curious.

有道理，湯姆。你能談談當你做一筆交易時，你如何整合它嗎？我的意思是，你如何將勝利帶入資產？你帶著所有的工具進來了嗎？你先來精實嗎？或者是否存在某種──或者是具體情況而定？有劇本嗎？我想我從來沒有聽你們談論過這件事。我只是有點好奇。

It's a good question. There's -- obviously, there's lessons learned that we've learned over the years and how to organize the project management office, what you're going to do on day 1. And there's really 2 big kind of veins that you're looking at, you're looking at all the integration tasks, those basic tasks of putting the businesses together and then your synergy task.

這是一個好問題。顯然，我們多年來學到了一些經驗教訓，以及如何組織專案管理辦公室，第一天要做的事情。而且，您確實看到了兩種大的靜脈，您正在查看所有整合任務，將業務組合在一起的基本任務，然後是協同任務。

We've learned to make sure you've got a dedicated integration team and you put the best and brightest people in those various leadership positions, put in a great integration manager. But the key thing to remember is we're buying great companies. And they're bringing good things to us, and we're trying to bring good things to them as we become one team, and it's the concept of 1 plus 1 equals 3.

我們學會如何確保您擁有一支專門的整合團隊，並將最優秀、最聰明的人才放在各個領導職位上，並任命一位出色的整合經理。但要記住的關鍵一點是我們正在購買偉大的公司。他們為我們帶來了好的東西，當我們成為一個團隊時，我們也在努力為他們帶來好的東西，這就是 1 加 1 等於 3 的概念。

So we're going to take the best of the acquisition and the best of Parker. And obviously, we work the Win Strategy. But we do give some latitude within the respective acquisitions to how they want to implement the Win Strategy. There's no -- it's not an option that you're going to implement it, but we give them latitude as to how they want to phase it in because, obviously, certain parts might be more applicable faster for respective acquisitions. We have a real robust cadence as far as review. And frankly, I think we've gotten pretty good at this and something we want to keep doing.

因此，我們將充分利用此次收購和 Parker 的優勢。顯然，我們採用獲勝策略。但我們確實在各自的收購中給予了他們想要如何實施獲勝策略的一些自由。沒有——這不是你要實施它的一個選擇，但我們給了他們自由度，讓他們決定如何分階段實施它，因為顯然，某些部分可能更適合各自的收購，更快地適用。就審查而言，我們的節奏非常強勁。坦白說，我認為我們在這方面已經做得很好，並且我們想繼續做下去。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes. We can hear you, Andrew.

是的。我們能聽到你的聲音，安德魯。

Yes. Great quarter, great free cash flow conversion as well.

是的。很棒的季度，自由現金流轉換也很棒。

Just a couple of questions for me. The first one, you sort of talked about your dealers still being cautious. I mean if you look at our channel checks, if you look what are the publicly traded hydraulics companies or the ones that are still hydraulic companies, sort of talk about what they are seeing in the channel, they just sound a bit more optimistic relative to what you guys are saying and sort of our channel checks, I think, a bit more optimistic on outlook as well.

只是問我幾個問題。第一個，您談到您的經銷商仍然保持謹慎。我的意思是，如果你看看我們的頻道檢查，如果你看看哪些是上市液壓公司或仍然是液壓公司，談論他們在頻道中看到的內容，他們只是聽起來相對於我認為，你們所說的以及我們的通路檢查對前景也更加樂觀。

Just trying to understand, is it Parker-based conservatism? Or are your dealers are more conservative? Your channel just knows something that we just don't see across the industry.

只是想了解一下，這是基於帕克的保守主義嗎？還是你們的經銷商比較保守？您的頻道知道一些我們在整個行業中看不到的東西。

Well, you're probably referring to one of our neighbors, and they would be much more heavy mobile than stationary and distribution. And we're not a hydraulics company. We're a diversified industrial company. So that's a big difference. But...

嗯，您可能指的是我們的一位鄰居，他們的移動性比固定式和配送性要重得多。我們不是一家液壓公司。我們是一家多元化的工業公司。所以這是一個很大的差別。但...

I'm also talking about a small competitor down in Florida, I guess.

我猜我還在談論佛羅裡達州的一個小競爭對手。

Okay. Well, our distributors still feel good. But part of what they're doing is placing orders, making scheduled releases over the next couple of quarters. Now we still think that if I look at going into Q3, that we're going to go from a minus 6% to getting to probably flat on North America and EMEA, and we'll be probably in that upper teens when you look at Asia Pacific.

好的。嗯，我們的經銷商還是感覺良好。但他們正在做的部分工作是下訂單，並計劃在接下來的幾個季度內發布。現在我們仍然認為，如果我考慮進入第三季度，北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的成長率將從負 6% 變為可能持平，當你看到時，我們可能會處於十幾歲的水平亞太地區。

Then when you get to Q4, we'll be very strong in North America and EMEA, probably around that plus 10%. And now China has a tough comp in that Q4 because if you remember, that's when they rebounded from the pandemic, so they're probably going to be flat on distribution.

然後，當你進入第四季度時，我們在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區將非常強大，可能會增加 10% 左右。現在中國在第四季的表現很艱難，因為如果你還記得的話，那是他們從大流行中反彈的時候，所以他們的分配可能會持平。

But our distributors still feel very good. And when we look at distribution for the whole second half, it will end up being a nice positive.

但我們的經銷商還是感覺很好。當我們觀察整個下半場的分佈時，這將是一個很好的積極因素。

Got you. Second question, you sort of talked about China, and I think we've been sort of talking about hydraulics competition emerging out of China for the past 20 years. But it does seem that we finally are at a point where you are sort of seeing Chinese competitors, and particularly the fact that China is leading recovery this time around. How do you see competition in China from the local competitors this time around? And then in this upturn, how different is that?

明白你了。第二個問題，您談到了中國，我認為過去 20 年來我們一直在討論中國興起的液壓競爭。但看來我們終於到了一個可以看到中國競爭對手的地步，尤其是中國這次正在引領復甦這一事實。您如何看待這次來自中國本土競爭對手的競爭？那麼在這次經濟好轉中，情況有何不同？

And then also some of them are talking about getting into industrial applications now, even though probably you have a bigger moat there. But just how do you think about Chinese competition coming out of this downturn in the next cycle?

他們中的一些人現在正在談論進入工業應用，儘管那裡可能有更大的護城河。但您如何看待中國在下一個週期走出低迷的競爭？

Andrew, it's Tom again. That's been a question really for a while now. And I really don't see it much different coming out of this than it was when we went into it. Just as a reflection, China for us grew about 10% last quarter. So we did quite well in China, Asia Pacific overall grew about 7%.

安德魯，又是湯姆。這確實是一個問題有一段時間了。我真的不認為這與我們進入時有什麼不同。正如我們所看到的，中國上個季度增長了約 10%。所以我們在中國做得很好，亞太地區整體成長了7%左右。

And the way we win in China is we're in China with the same or better cost structure because we have a nice density of plants in China and a very robust supply chain in China. And we have the breadth of our technology. So we go to compete. And again, that's a distinguishing characteristic that we have around the world. We're not just competing as a Chinese fitting company or a Chinese hose company, we can put the whole portfolio of technology to get in [our equipment]. That discussion with the customer, they can't beat us when we're having a discussion around cost of ownership or the weight of the product or reliability, the ease of assembly, all those type of things that you can do when you're a multi technology. And obviously, these multi technologies are interconnected or not disparate technologies, they're interconnected technologies that create a big value proposition for customers.

我們在中國獲勝的方式是我們在中國擁有相同或更好的成本結構，因為我們在中國擁有很高的工廠密度和非常強大的供應鏈。我們擁有廣泛的技術。所以我們去比賽。再說一遍，這是我們在世界各地都具有的顯著特徵。我們不僅僅是作為一家中國配件公司或中國軟管公司進行競爭，我們可以將整個技術組合融入[我們的設備]。與客戶的討論，當我們討論擁有成本或產品的重量或可靠性、組裝的簡易性以及您可以做的所有這些類型的事情時，他們無法擊敗我們。一項多項技術。顯然，這些多種技術是相互關聯的，或者不是不同的技術，它們是相互關聯的技術，為客戶創造了巨大的價值主張。

So that's been -- we can beat them on a cost because we're there. We're the same cost structure or better, and we have a better basket to solve more problems for customers.

所以我們可以在成本上擊敗他們，因為我們在那裡。我們的成本結構相同或更好，我們有更好的籃子來為客戶解決更多的問題。

Your next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Raso。

My question is on Aerospace. But if you could clarify first. Were you saying the fourth quarter, the fiscal fourth quarter Aerospace organic sales flat? I just want to make sure I heard that correctly.

我的問題是關於航空航天的。但如果你能先澄清一下。您是說第四季、第四財季航空航太有機銷售額持平嗎？我只是想確保我聽到的是正確的。

Yes, David. This is Tom. Flat to prior year.

是的，大衛。這是湯姆。與上年持平。

And I'm not asking for '21 guidance, but can you take us through your thoughts on how you see the cadence of the Aerospace recovery? And obviously, may color also how you think about M&A in the space as well. So I'm trying to tie those 2 together and give us a little lay of the land, if you're already at flat in calendar 2Q, fiscal 4Q, how are you thinking of the slope from there?

我並不是要求 21 年的指導，但您能否向我們介紹一下您對航空航天復甦節奏的看法？顯然，這也可能影響您對該領域併購的看法。因此，我試圖將這兩者聯繫在一起，並為我們提供一些基礎信息，如果您在日曆第二季度、財年第四季度已經持平，您如何看待從那裡開始的斜率？

Yes. David, it's Tom again. So we like this space. This is all of our motion control technologies going into things that fly. We're going to things that fly because there are stationary and things that have wheels under them. And the way we look at Aerospace is that we have its size to win in the current climate. The current climate is finding bottom, and it's going to be a slow turn coming back up. But my view over the next several years this is going to gradually show improvement.

是的。大衛，又是湯姆。所以我們喜歡這個空間。這是我們應用於飛行物體的所有運動控制技術。我們將研究會飛的東西，因為有固定的東西和下面有輪子的東西。我們看待航空航太的方式是，我們有足夠的規模在當前的環境下獲勝。當前的氣候正在探底，並且將緩慢回升。但我認為未來幾年這將逐漸顯示出改善。

Now what is that pace of improvement? I think it's going to mirror the pace of vaccine deliveries and the comfort that travelers feel. And I think you'll see resident -- personal travel come back much more aggressively. The business travel will come back, but will probably plateau at a certain level based on just the efficiencies of digital tools. But we're positioned to win right now with the kind of [op] margins in this current climate, and it's only going to get better going forward.

現在改進的速度是多少？我認為這將反映疫苗交付的速度和旅客感受到的舒適度。我認為你會看到居民個人旅行更加積極地回歸。商務旅行將會回來，但僅根據數位工具的效率，可能會在一定水平上趨於穩定。但在目前的環境下，我們現在已經準備好以這種[營運]利潤取勝，而且未來只會變得更好。

So with respect to M&A, I actually think this is a good time to look at M&A in the aerospace arena, depending on the right property and the right pricing, obviously. But I think the future is bright. Now it's going to be -- it's a long-cycle business, so it will turn slower than industrial turn would be. But again, if you're positioned to win now and you're going to have a gradual upturn, it speaks to nice incrementals and nice positive year-over-year changes for you over the next several years.

因此，就併購而言，我實際上認為現在是在航空航太領域併購的好時機，這顯然取決於合適的財產和合適的定價。但我認為未來是光明的。現在它是一個長週期的業務，所以它的轉變將比工業轉變慢。但同樣，如果你現在已經做好了獲勝的準備，並且你的業績將逐漸好轉，那麼這意味著你在接下來的幾年裡會出現良好的增量和積極的逐年變化。

Yes. I'm just trying to balance the dance that doesn't go on with the stock, right? The traditional crowd that looks at the ISM and says, hey, this is fantastic right now. How much better can it get? While the compounded crowd looks at your cash flow, the deleveraging and say, look, we can definitely move the ball forward here. This is not just an old ISM play. And the timing of the M&A, I think it's important to balance that -- those 2 crowds.

是的。我只是想平衡與股票無關的舞蹈，對嗎？傳統人群看著 ISM 並說，嘿，現在太棒了。還能好到什麼程度呢？當複雜的人群關注你的現金流時，去槓桿化並說，看，我們絕對可以在這裡向前推進。這不僅僅是ISM的老戲。至於併購的時機，我認為平衡這兩個人群很重要。

And not to get inside your M&A department here. But when you listed those 4 categories, can you just give us some sense of -- if you had your druthers, identical kind of assets, when you think of where you're positioned, your size, the competitive landscape and then obviously, how you view the cycle playing out. Of those, I mean would you prioritize them at all between filtration, engineered materials, filtration in aerospace?

不要進入你們的併購部門。但是，當您列出這 4 個類別時，您能否給我們一些感覺 - 如果您有相同類型的資產，當您考慮自己的定位、規模、競爭格局以及顯然如何時，您會看到這個循環正在上演。其中，我的意思是，您是否會在過濾、工程材料、航空航天過濾之間優先考慮它們？

I probably won't prioritize not to disappoint you on being vague and the answer, but we like all the properties. But I want to come back to the very first thing and this is -- what I always remind the Board and I'll remind shareholders, we want to be the consolidator of choice within our space. So those 8 motion control technologies that, I believe, was on Slide 4, is the space we play in. And we have a big advantage that we're not disparate pieces of businesses. With now 2/3 of this revenue come from people that buy from these -- all these technologies for 4 or more, we like all those technologies.

我可能不會優先考慮不讓您因為模糊和答案而失望，但我們喜歡所有的屬性。但我想回到第一件事，這是我一直提醒董事會和股東的，我們希望成為我們領域內的首選整合者。因此，我相信幻燈片 4 上的 8 種運動控制技術就是我們所發揮的空間。而且我們有一個很大的優勢，那就是我們不是不同的業務部門。現在 2/3 的收入來自於購買這些技術的人——所有這些技術的價格為 4 或更多，我們喜歡所有這些技術。

I think the thing you're going to see us look for is -- and the theme that you've seen with the last 3 deals is within a period of time depending on the synergies, they're going to be growth accretive, margin accretive and cash accretive. And that's a different strategy, I think, for the company.

我認為你會看到我們尋找的是——你在過去三筆交易中看到的主題是在一段時間內取決於協同效應，它們將帶來成長成長、利潤率增值和現金增值。我認為這對公司來說是一個不同的策略。

Our tendency, we would prefer to buy things that are not ultra small. But if you just look at the histogram of the targets, it's more in the midsized category just because of the lay of the land. There's fewer of these really super large targets that you can look at. We will look at them, obviously. When I say midsize, what's changed for us versus the past is our midsize is now bigger.

我們的傾向是，我們更願意購買不是超小的東西。但如果你只看目標的直方圖，你會發現，由於地理位置的原因，它更屬於中型類別。您可以看到的真正超大目標較少。顯然，我們會關注它們。當我說中型時，我們與過去相比發生的變化是我們的中型現在更大了。

A midsized target for us would be envision an Exotic like deal, which, historically, would have been the largest deal in the history of the company before LORD and CLARCOR. So our appetite is there.

我們的中型目標是設想一項類似 Exotic 的交易，從歷史上看，這將是該公司歷史上繼 Lord 和 CLARCOR 之前最大的交易。所以我們的胃口就在那裡。

If I could go back, David, to a comment you made about the ISM, which I thought was a thoughtful comment. The power of this portfolio, besides being interconnected, is that the cycles somewhat balance each other.

David，請讓我回顧一下您對 ISM 所做的評論，我認為這是一個深思熟慮的評論。該投資組合的力量除了相互關聯之外，還在於各個週期在某種程度上相互平衡。

So yes, we will see some near term, and we'll see how long near term turns out to be on the industrial portion of the company that's going to have much more robust macro conditions. But then following that, the Aerospace business is going to start to be healing. And I think sequentially, those time periods are going to be complementary to each other. The other part is that this 5-year period that I envision going forward, is going to be, I think, much easier for industrial companies than the last 5-year period because we went through 2 industrial recessions and a pandemic. I'm not knocking on wood here. I guess it's possible to have that happen again. But the odds are low that it would repeat. So I think it's a much better time. And we have enough self-help for all those people that I'd like you to encourage. We are no longer a short-cycle bet. We are bet over the cycle. And we have all kinds of room, Win Strategy 3.0 just started. And those FY '23 targets are not an endpoint. They're a mile marker we're going to blow past.

所以，是的，我們會看到一些短期的情況，我們會看到公司的工業部分的短期情況會持續多久，而該公司的工業部分將擁有更強勁的宏觀條件。但隨後，航空航太業務將開始復甦。我認為，這些時間段將依序互補。另一部分是，我認為未來的這五年對工業公司來說將比過去的五年要容易得多，因為我們經歷了兩次工業衰退和一場大流行。我不是在這裡敲木頭。我想這種情況有可能會再發生。但這種情況再次發生的可能性很低。所以我認為現在是一個更好的時機。我們為所有那些我希望你們鼓勵的人提供了足夠的自助服務。我們不再是短週期的賭注。我們押注於週期。而且我們有各種空間，獲勝策略3.0才剛開始。 23 財年的目標並不是終點。它們是我們將要衝過去的一英里標記。

Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Mig Dobre。

And maybe just to kind of pick up on this topic here. Tom, you've spent a better part of last year sort of showcasing how the business is performing different than it has in prior downturns, right? But we're entering an upturn, and I'm curious to get your perspective as to how this next upturn might be different than what we have seen historically?

也許只是為了在這裡了解這個主題。湯姆，去年你花了大部分時間來展示公司的表現與之前的低迷時期有何不同，對吧？但我們正在進入經濟好轉，我很想知道您對下一次經濟好轉的看法可能與我們歷史上看到的情況有何不同？

Well, I think it's always hard to predict one cycle versus the other. I think you will continue to see us perform very well on converting on the incremental side. But just I would caution people incrementals for Q4 this year and for the first half of next year are going to be tough comps.

嗯，我認為預測一個週期與另一個週期總是很困難。我認為您將繼續看到我們在增量轉換方面表現出色。但我要提醒人們，今年第四季和明年上半年的增量將是艱難的。

We're going to try to flatten the field when we give you the results. So you'll be able to see the real incrementals of the company. But I think you would expect to see us north of 40% in the first couple of quarters and it may glide down in the 30s. But we're going to be in a much -- that stair-step slide that I've showed for the last couple of quarters. Our intention is to keep raising the ceiling and raising the floor. So this next ceiling, this next cycle, our expectation is going to be higher than the last ceiling. We're doing it right now. This isn't even really a necessarily good period right now and we're breaking records on margins.

當我們向您提供結果時，我們將盡力使這個領域變得平坦。這樣您就能夠看到公司的真正增量。但我認為你會期望在前幾個季度看到我們的成長率超過 40%，並且可能會在 30 多歲時下滑。但我們將陷入我在過去幾季展示的階梯幻燈片中。我們的目的是不斷提高上限和地板。因此，下一個上限，下一個週期，我們的期望將高於上一個上限。我們現在正在做。現在甚至不一定是一個好時期，我們的利潤率正在打破紀錄。

So I'm bullish because there's a lot of positive factors. If you just look at interest rates and what's happening with global industrial production forecast. In my view, a pent-up need for CapEx, given that there's been 2 industrial recessions in the last number of years. And aerospace cycle that will follow an industrial cycle so you get the benefit of those not being right on top of each other. And just a tremendous amount of self-help.

所以我看好，因為有很多正面因素。如果你只看利率和全球工業生產預測的情況。在我看來，考慮到過去幾年發生了兩次工業衰退，資本支出的需求被壓抑。航空航天週期將遵循工業週期，因此您可以從那些不相互疊加的週期中受益。還有大量的自助。

A lot of what you've seen that's propelled these margins to date is prior period restructuring in Win Strategy 2.0. Win Strategy 3.0, and I'm not just being biased because I'm a part author of it, it's better than 2.0, hands down. And you've only seen about a year of that in play. And so 3.0 is going to get -- has tremendous legs, so we have still a portfolio of self-help. And the big thing is that we're back in the capital deployment game.

到目前為止，您所看到的推動這些利潤的大部分因素是獲勝策略 2.0 中的前期重組。贏得戰略 3.0，我不只是因為我是它的部分作者而有偏見，它比 2.0 更好，毫無疑問。而你只看到了大約一年的時間。因此 3.0 將具有巨大的優勢，因此我們仍然有一系列自助服務。最重要的是，我們又回到了資本部署遊戲。

So it will be a steady diet of dividends, share repurchase and acquisitions. And obviously, that formula, we're going to raise, I can assure all the shareholders listening. There will be a Q4 increase to the dividend. We're not going to break our track record. And then we'll continue to do what we've always done is look at the acquisitions versus share repurchase and try to make the best decision on behalf of shareholders for what is the best long-term return for them.

因此，這將是穩定的股息、股票回購和收購的飲食。顯然，我們將提出這個公式，我可以向所有傾聽的股東保證。第四季股息將會增加。我們不會打破我們的記錄。然後，我們將繼續做我們一直在做的事情，即考慮收購與股票回購，並努力代表股東做出最佳決策，為他們帶來最佳的長期回報。

I guess, perhaps, you're going to want to punt on this, but you're pretty close to your stated fiscal '23 targets. At what point do we expect an update to this? And I'm also curious as to how you're thinking about free cash flow margin here. I mean, even taking out the working capital benefit that you had year-to-date, free cash flow margin is quite impressive. How sustainable do you think this is, especially as perhaps we need to see a little more working capital coming back into the business?

我想，也許您會想押注於此，但您已經非常接近既定的 23 年財務目標。我們預計什麼時候對此進行更新？我也很好奇你是如何看待自由現金流利潤率的。我的意思是，即使扣除年初至今的營運資本利得，自由現金流利潤率也相當可觀。您認為這有多可持續，尤其是我們可能需要看到更多的營運資金回流到業務中？

So Mig, I'll start on the '23 targets. And I'm going to let Todd take the free cash flow one. You're right, I am going to punt. But hopefully, you recognize we've not hesitated to change these. So we've gone from -- I'm just going to use segment operating margin. We've gone from 15% to 17% to 19% and now 21%. So we've not hesitated to update it. We just want to prove for several quarters that we're close or at it. And once we do that, we'll be prepared to give you a better vision of that.

米格，我將從 23 年的目標開始。我將讓托德承擔自由現金流。你說得對，我要去踢球了。但希望您認識到我們毫不猶豫地改變了這些。因此，我們不再使用－我將使用分部營業利潤率。我們從 15% 到 17%，再到 19%，現在是 21%。所以我們毫不猶豫地更新了它。我們只是想在幾個季度證明我們已經接近或正在實現這一目標。一旦我們做到了這一點，我們將準備好為您提供更好的願景。

And I'll let Todd talk about free cash flow.

我會讓托德談談自由現金流。

Yes, Mig, you're right. Our cash flow has been really impressive. And like I said, it's really the work of our global team, really focusing very quickly on working capital management. We know there's going to be some pressure on working capital as growth returns to the business. So we're well aware of that.

是的，米格，你說得對。我們的現金流確實令人印象深刻。就像我說的，這確實是我們全球團隊的工作，非常快速地專注於營運資本管理。我們知道，隨著業務恢復成長，營運資金將會面臨一些壓力。所以我們很清楚這一點。

But as Tom said, we've basically had a step change here. Our margins are a different profile than they used to be, and that obviously feeds the free cash flow. So we think historically, we're going to be better than we've been historically, and we're positive on that going forward.

但正如湯姆所說，我們基本上已經發生了一步改變。我們的利潤率與以前不同，這顯然可以增加自由現金流。因此，我們認為，從歷史角度來看，我們將比歷史上的表現更好，並且我們對此持積極態度。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫的奈傑爾·科。

And great job. You make that look easy, but I know it's not. So well done. So we're pretty deep into the Q&A here. We haven't had the end market roll down. So it'd be remiss not to do that. But just one clarification, the lag on distribution -- distributor orders versus -- sorry, versus OE. I'm a bit surprised with that. Is that normal at this point in the cycle as we turn back up? Or is this a quirk of this pandemic?

幹得好。你讓這看起來很容易，但我知道事實並非如此。做得很好。所以我們在這裡進行了相當深入的問答。我們還沒看到終端市場下滑。因此，不這樣做就是失職。但只有一個澄清，分銷滯後——分銷商訂單與——抱歉，與原廠訂單。我對此有點驚訝。當我們返回時，這在週期的這個點上是正常的嗎？或者說這是這次疫情的怪現象？

Nigel, it's Tom. No, it's very normal. Mobile tends to lead, which is doing now. And then industrial and then followed by distribution. Remember, the distribution, well, we'll service some small to medium-sized OEMs is primarily the aftermarket.

奈傑爾，是湯姆。不，這很正常。行動裝置往往處於領先地位，現在正是如此。然後是工業，然後是分銷。請記住，我們將為一些中小型原始設備製造商提供服務的分銷主要是售後市場。

And so that tends to lag a hair after you see a sharp return, which is what you're seeing with some of the other end markets. And I will spin you through the end markets quickly. And I'm going to break it into the buckets like I've historically done. I'm starting with the positive end markets. The greater than 10%, this is for the total company was semiconductor, life science, power generation, agriculture, refrigeration, aerospace military OEM and aerospace military MRO. On the positive high single digits was automotive. Positive low single digits was construction and heavy duty truck.

因此，在你看到大幅回報之後，這往往會滯後一點，這就是你在其他一些終端市場看到的情況。我將帶您快速瀏覽終端市場。我將像我以前所做的那樣把它分成幾桶。我從積極的終端市場開始。大於10%的公司總數為半導體、生命科學、發電、農業、冷凍、航空航天軍事OEM和航空航天軍事MRO。積極的高個位數是汽車行業。正的低個位數是建築和重型卡車。

And then on the declining markets, they've got 4 buckets: Low single-digit decline was telecom and tires; high single-digit decline was lawn and turf, material handling, mining, mills and foundries and distribution. Distribution is not a market, but that's just -- we put it in there; the 10% to 20% range is rail, marine and forestry; and the greater than 20% was machine tools, oil and gas, aerospace commercial OEM and aerospace commercial MRO.

然後，在下降的市場上，他們有 4 個類別：低個位數下降的是電信和輪胎；高個位數下降的是草坪和草皮、材料處理、採礦、工廠和鑄造廠以及分銷。分銷不是市場，但這只是－我們把它放在那裡； 10%到20%範圍是鐵路、海運和林業；超過20%的是工具機、石油和天然氣、航空航太商業OEM和航空航太商業MRO。

Great. That's wonderful. And then just on the margins between international and North America. We now have very close conversions between these margins. Is that really a function of the recovery profile mix perhaps? Or are we in a situation now where these margins going forward are going to be very comparable?

偉大的。那好極了。然後就在國際和北美之間的邊緣。現在，我們在這些利潤之間進行了非常接近的轉換。這真的是恢復設定檔組合的功能嗎？或者說，我們現在的情況是否是未來這些利潤率會非常具有可比性？

Yes, Nigel, we worked with this for many, many, many years to get those margins comparable, and I really give credit to our international team. They've made great progress. So we're not where we want to be. We still have plans to move it forward, but we see those margins. There's no reason why those margins can't be similar.

是的，奈傑爾，我們為此工作了很多很多很多年，才獲得了可比的利潤率，我真的很感謝我們的國際團隊。他們已經取得了很大的進步。所以我們還沒有到達我們想要的位置。我們仍然有計劃推進它，但我們看到了這些利潤。這些邊距沒有理由不相似。

Gigi, I think we have time for maybe one more question.

吉吉，我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Just following up on Raso's question from earlier, just on PMIP. So I guess is there anything in the business today, Tom, that you're seeing that would say that the PMI is maybe not indicative of where the business and your recovery, your customers are in recovery, like maybe things don't feel quite as far along as they normally would with like a 60 PMI, whether it's inventory levels, which we sort of talked about or just the types of end market leadership, anything that would make you feel like maybe this has kind of some longer legs to it than you would normally see at this point?

只是跟進 Raso 之前在 PMIP 上提出的問題。所以我想，湯姆，今天的業務中是否有什麼東西可以表明，PMI 可能無法表明業務和您的復甦、您的客戶正在復甦的情況，就像事情感覺不太一樣就他們通常所認為的60 PMI而言，無論是我們談到的庫存水平，還是終端市場領導力的類型，任何會讓你覺得這可能有更長的持續時間的事情比你通常會看到的這一點？

Josh, this is Tom. I still think that you'll see relatively this similar correlation here to plot our orders historically against PMI is anywhere from a 3 to 6-month lag. I think the pandemic has the potential to maybe influence that a little bit, we'll just have to see as that plays through. But I would just characterize, I feel better about this next several years than I do about what happened in the last 6 years at least in my time leading the company. Because I just think about, we went through a natural resource recession, we went through the most current recession and we had the pandemic. And so I think there is a need for industrial and infrastructure type of activities. I think aerospace will return longer term. So I just think there's a better, potentially more stable macro environment in the next couple of years.

喬什，這是湯姆。我仍然認為，您會在這裡看到相對類似的相關性，以繪製歷史訂單與 PMI 的關係，存在 3 到 6 個月的滯後。我認為大流行可能會對此產生一點影響，我們只需要看看它的進展。但我想說的是，我對未來幾年的感覺比對過去六年發生的事情的感覺更好，至少在我領導公司的時候是這樣。因為我想，我們經歷了自然資源衰退，我們經歷了最近的衰退，我們也經歷了疫情。所以我認為需要工業和基礎設施類型的活動。我認為航空航太業將在更長時間內回歸。所以我只是認為未來幾年會有一個更好、可能更穩定的宏觀環境。

Got it. That's helpful. And I agree with that. And I guess just kind of related to that, all the while bringing up the segment operating margins within striking distance of your target even with aero still on its back. At what point does gross margin become a limiter and you need to find yourself mixing higher on that front because the distance between the 2 is narrower than we see in most of our coverage. So at what point does that -- I mean, more differentiated growth or M&A mix like what you had with the award of Exotic, just any observation you would make on what it takes to get to the steps beyond?

知道了。這很有幫助。我同意這一點。我想這與此有關，即使航空航太仍在其背後，但始終將細分市場的營業利潤率提高到目標的打擊距離內。在什麼時候，毛利率會成為一個限制因素，你需要發現自己在這方面混合得更高，因為兩者之間的距離比我們在大多數報導中看到的要窄。那麼，什麼時候會出現這種情況——我的意思是，更加差異化的增長或併購組合，就像您獲得異國情調獎時所獲得的那樣，只是您對如何才能達到更進一步的水平所做的任何觀察？

Yes, Josh. Again, it's Tom. One clarification. Our gross margin might look different when you compare to other companies because we embed a fair amount of SG&A into our cost of goods sold. So our gross probably has some of that in there versus other people might be booking their SG&A in different categories.

是的，喬許。又是湯姆。一項澄清。與其他公司相比，我們的毛利率可能會有所不同，因為我們將相當數量的銷售成本和行政管理費用納入了銷售成本中。因此，我們的總收入可能有一些，而其他人可能會在不同的類別中預訂他們的 SG&A。

But your question is stepping higher levels really, can margins continue to grow higher? And absolutely they can. If you look at what I was referring to earlier on about early days of Win Strategy 3.0 and all the initiatives we have underneath there, I feel very good about our potential there and just very strong legs of what the future can hold. You put that in place with maybe a little better macro environment, yes, you can have a little more volume induced leverage. And then we're coming into a period of time where we have a stronger balance sheet, so we can put that to work as well.

但你的問題是，真的要提高水準嗎？利潤率還能繼續成長嗎？他們絕對可以。如果你看看我之前提到的關於制勝策略 3.0 早期的內容以及我們在其中所採取的所有舉措，我對我們在那裡的潛力感到非常滿意，並且對未來的前景非常堅定。你可以在宏觀環境更好一點的情況下實現這一點，是的，你可以擁有更多一點的成交量誘導槓桿。然後我們將進入一個擁有更強大資產負債表的時期，因此我們也可以將其發揮作用。

So well, I've told people before, maybe I'll close on this. If you like what's happened in the last 6 years in the environment we had with basically no macro help, the next several years are going to be fantastic.

好吧，我之前已經告訴過人們，也許我會結束這個話題。如果你喜歡過去六年在我們基本上沒有宏觀幫助的環境中所發生的事情，那麼接下來的幾年將會非常棒。

All right, everyone. This concludes the Q&A portion of our earnings call. We appreciate all your comments. And as always, thank you for your interest in Parker. Robert and Jeff are going to be available throughout the day, and if anyone needs any follow-ups. We thank you again, and everyone stay safe. Thanks.

好吧，大家。我們的財報電話會議的問答部分到此結束。我們感謝您的所有評論。一如既往，感謝您對帕克的興趣。羅伯特和傑夫將全天為您服務，如果有人需要任何後續跟進。我們再次感謝您，祝大家注意安全。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。