派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Fiscal 2020 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings release Conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加派克漢尼汾 2020 年第四季和全年收益發布電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人，財務長 Cathy Suever。請繼續。

Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our teleconference this morning. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for 1 year following today's call.

謝謝你，莎拉。大家，早安。歡迎參加我們今天早上的電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯 (Tom Williams)；李‧班克斯 (Lee Banks) 總裁兼營運長。今天的簡報幻燈片以及音訊網路廣播重播將在今天的電話會議後一年內透過公司的投資者資訊網站 phstock.com 提供。

In Slide #2, you'll find the company's safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and on Parker's website at phstock.com.

在投影片 #2 中，您會發現該公司的安全港揭露聲明涉及前瞻性聲明以及非公認會計準則財務指標。今天早上的新聞稿和 Parker 的網站 phstock.com 中均包含對非 GAAP 財務指標的調整。

Today's agenda appears on Slide 3. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing an update on Parker's response to COVID-19. Tom will then discuss highlights from the fourth quarter and full year. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of our fourth quarter performance together with guidance for fiscal year 2021. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. We'll do our best to take all the calls we can today.

今天的議程顯示在幻燈片 3 上。我們將首先由董事長兼執行長 Tom Williams 介紹 Parker 對 COVID-19 應對措施的最新情況。然後湯姆將討論第四季和全年的亮點。根據 Tom 的評論，我將回顧我們第四季度的業績以及 2021 財年的指導。然後 Tom 將提供一些總結性評論，我們將開始問答環節。今天我們將盡力接聽所有能接到的電話。

Please refer now to Slide 4, and Tom will get us started.

現在請參閱幻燈片 4，湯姆將帶我們開始。

Thank you, Cathy, and good morning, everybody. A couple of comments from me before we start Slide 4. First, I hope that everybody listening in that you and your families are safe and healthy. And I'd like to extend our thoughts to those affected by this crisis and our deepest sympathies go out to those that have lost loved ones as a result of the virus.

謝謝你，凱西，大家早安。在我們開始投影片 4 之前，我有幾個評論。首先，我希望每個傾聽的人都知道您和您的家人安全健康。我想向那些受這場危機影響的人表示我們的思念，並向那些因病毒而失去親人的人表示最深切的同情。

I have a special thank you for all Parker team members that are listening in for their hard work and our dedication really delivering 2 high level accomplishments. First, we delivered outstanding performance during unprecedented times, as you saw by the quarter and by the full year results. And we're living up to our purpose. We're providing products and technologies that are helping society through the crisis and helping to do our part to create a better tomorrow for people.

我要特別感謝所有正在傾聽的帕克團隊成員，他們的辛勤工作和我們的奉獻精神確實帶來了兩項高水準的成就。首先，正如您在季度和全年業績中看到的那樣，我們在前所未有的時期取得了出色的業績。我們正在實現我們的目標。我們提供的產品和技術正在幫助社會度過危機，並幫助為人們創造更美好的明天盡自己的一份力量。

So on Slide 4, we talk about our response to pandemic. It starts with safety. That's the first goal on everyone's strategy. And really, when we made that change in 2015, it provided a great foundation for us to respond to this pandemic. We're helping society through the crisis. Our technologies are essential. What was interesting with all the government orders that came out, almost every one of those deemed us as an essential manufacturer. Our purpose and action is more clear than ever, and I'll give you a few examples of that. And our manufacturing capacity has stayed near-normal levels throughout the pandemic. The governing principle that's really been the takeaway on this page, which is our 2 safest places that we want for our people is to be at work and at home. And we're doing everything we can to live up for that.

因此，在投影片 4 上，我們討論了我們對大流行的應對措施。它從安全開始。這是每個人策略的首要目標。事實上，當我們在 2015 年做出這項改變時，它為我們應對這場流行病奠定了良好的基礎。我們正在幫助社會度過危機。我們的技術至關重要。有趣的是，所有發布的政府命令幾乎每一個都將我們視為重要的製造商。我們的目的和行動比以往任何時候都更加明確，我將舉出幾個例子。在整個大流行期間，我們的製造能力一直保持在接近正常水平。本頁真正要傳達的指導原則是，我們希望員工的兩個最安全的地方是工作場所和家庭。我們正在盡一切努力來實現這一目標。

So on Slide 5, the performance during this health and economic crisis and the confidence in the results that you saw in Q4 really come from this list that you see. I want to just touch on the very last bullet, to engage people. This was a big change that we made in Win Strategy 2.0 2015, and we recognized the strong correlation between safety, engagement and business performance. We are now top quartile in safety, top quartile in engagement, and you can see the significant progress we're making towards being top quartile on our financial performance-based on the results that we just turned in.

因此，在幻燈片 5 上，這場健康和經濟危機期間的表現以及您在第四季度看到的結果的信心確實來自您看到的這份清單。我只想談談最後一點，讓人們參與其中。這是我們在 2015 年獲勝策略 2.0 中做出的重大改變，我們認識到安全性、參與度和業務績效之間的密切相關性。現在，我們在安全性方面排名前四分之一，在參與度方面排名前四分之一，根據我們剛剛提交的結果，您可以看到我們在財務績效方面取得了顯著進展。

If you go to the next page, I'm going to talk about the strength of our portfolio and our purpose and action. And on Slide 7 is the unmatched breadth of technologies that we have, those 8-motion control technologies. They are our competitive differentiator. It's how we bring value to customers. And our customers see it. 60% of our revenue comes from customers who buy 4 or more of these technologies.

如果您翻到下一頁，我將談論我們產品組合的優勢以及我們的目的和行動。第 7 張投影片上展示了我們擁有的無與倫比的技術廣度，即 8 運動控制技術。他們是我們的競爭優勢。這就是我們為客戶帶來價值的方式。我們的客戶也看到了這一點。我們 60% 的收入來自購買 4 項或以上這些技術的客戶。

Go to Slide 8. Our capital deployment strategy has been thoughtful and we've been transforming this already great portfolio through these strategic acquisitions by acquiring CLARCOR, LORD and Exotic. This is $3 billion of acquired sales. We bought 3 great companies, the 3 largest in our history. And they've increased our resilience because of their technologies and because of their aftermarket content. And you've seen in the results they are accretive to growth, margins and cash. And this was especially evident during a crisis. And we've been able to equal or beat our synergy goals despite the macro conditions.

請參閱投影片 8。我們的資本部署策略經過深思熟慮，我們一直在透過收購 CLARCOR、LORD 和 Exotic 等策略性收購來改變這個已經很出色的投資組合。這是 30 億美元的收購銷售額。我們收購了 3 家偉大的公司，其中 3 家是我們歷史上最大的公司。由於他們的技術和售後內容，他們提高了我們的彈性。您已經在結果中看到它們促進了成長、利潤和現金。這在危機期間尤其明顯。儘管宏觀條件不佳，但我們仍然能夠達到或超越我們的協同目標。

Slide 9 is our purpose statement, enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow, which has really acted as our compass and our guiding light and provide a lot of inspiration to our team. On Slide 10, just some examples of that purpose in action. On the left-hand side is the food supply, we're basically from the farm all the way to your kitchen table. Transportation, whether it's truck, air or rail, we're helping the world move products and goods around the various customers. In the middle section there on life sciences, we're helping patients, whether it's in the hospital or in the ambulance. And that -- probably the poster child for us and the one that's really -- is probably the signature of the purpose in action for the last quarter was the work we did on the ventilator. So 6 of those 8 technologies that I showed in the prior page or 2 are ventilators. And we saw dramatic, you might expect, ramp-up in production needs based on what was happening in the society with existing customers, and we took on a lot of new customers that could not find suppliers that could keep up with this production demand. And in some cases, we went from 0 to full production in weeks, and it was really a remarkable job by the divisions involved.

幻燈片 9 是我們的目的宣言，實現工程突破，帶來更美好的明天，這確實充當了我們的指南針和指路明燈，並為我們的團隊提供了許多靈感。第 10 張投影片只是該目的的一些實際範例。左邊是食物供應，我們基本上是從農場一直到你的廚房餐桌。運輸，無論是卡車、空運或鐵路，我們正在幫助世界各地的不同客戶運輸產品和貨物。在生命科學的中間部分，我們正在幫助患者，無論是在醫院還是在救護車上。這可能是我們的典型代表，也是真正的代表，這可能是上個季度我們在呼吸器上所做的工作的標誌。因此，我在上一頁展示的 8 項技術中，有 6 項或 2 項是呼吸器。您可能會想到，根據社會上現有客戶發生的情況，我們看到生產需求急劇增加，並且我們接受了許多無法找到能夠滿足這種生產需求的供應商的新客戶。在某些情況下，我們在幾週內就從零生產到全面生產，這對相關部門來說確實是一項了不起的工作。

On the right-hand side in the upper right, we are an essential manufacturer, as I mentioned earlier. And basically, if you look at any plant in the world, you can probably find a Parker part somewhere in that plant. So we're an essential manufacturer because we're needed by everybody else. Then on power generation, whether it's traditional renewables, we're there to help customers with their energy source.

正如我之前提到的，在右上角的右側，我們是一家重要的製造商。基本上，如果您觀察世界上的任何工廠，您可能會在該工廠的某個地方找到派克零件。所以我們是一家重要的製造商，因為其他人都需要我們。然後在發電方面，無論是傳統的再生能源，我們都會為客戶提供能源方面的協助。

Moving and shifting to really a summary of the quarter and the full year on Slide 12, it was outstanding. It was a difficult time, probably the most difficult in the history as a company. The organic growth came in at 21% decline. So we clearly felt that impact we paid down debt by $687 million. That was on top of what we did in Q3. And when you look at margin on the 2 different categories we're going to look at here, it was just terrific performance. On operating margins, it's better to look at it without acquisitions, given the acquisitions we've got and not -- and don't have in prior periods. But if you look at the adjusted growth there, 18.1% versus 17.6%. So 50 bps increase in Q4 as a 16% decremental, just fantastic. That's a fantastic job by all the groups and divisions around the company.

轉到投影片 12 上的季度和全年總結，效果非常出色。那是一段艱難的時期，可能是公司歷史上最困難的時期。有機成長下降了 21%。因此，我們清楚地感受到了這種影響，我們償還了 6.87 億美元的債務。這是我們在第三季所做的之上的。當您查看我們將在這裡查看的兩個不同類別的利潤率時，您會發現這是非常出色的表現。就營業利潤率而言，考慮到我們已經進行過的收購和沒有進行過的收購，以及之前時期沒有進行過的收購，最好不要進行收購。但如果你看看調整後的成長率，你會發現 18.1% 和 17.6%。因此，第四季度增長了 50 個基點，但下降了 16%，這真是太棒了。這是公司所有團隊和部門的出色工作。

And then without acquisitions, EBITDA -- it's a good way to look at this, apples-to-apples. If you go down to the last row, 20.4%, 160 basis points improvement, probably the first time, at least in recent memory that we've ellipsed 20% EBITDA margin. So this is really a combination of the base business performing well, the Win Strategy, the prior period restructuring and bringing on acquisitions that are accretive on margins.

如果不考慮收購，EBITDA——這是看待這個問題的好方法，同類比較。如果你看最後一行，20.4%，即 160 個基點的改善，這可能是我們第一次，至少在最近的記憶中，我們省略了 20% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。因此，這實際上是表現良好的基礎業務、獲勝策略、前期重組和帶來利潤成長的收購的結合。

If you go to Slide 13, a quick summary of a full year. We've made continued progress. I would just remind people that we were already in an industrial session before the pandemic hit. So these accomplishments really are up against a pretty stiff headwind.

如果您查看投影片 13，它是全年的快速總結。我們不斷取得進展。我只是想提醒人們，在疫情爆發之前我們就已經在召開工業會議了。因此，這些成就確實面臨相當嚴峻的阻力。

And on safety, 35% reduction in recordable incidents. This puts us in the top quartile and I would just contrast, 5 years ago, we were in the fourth quartile on safety and we're not in the first quarter, so remarkable progress there. Cash flow from operations from a dollar standpoint is an all-time record. So that's an all-time record in the history of the company, $2.1 billion. If you got to hit a record, cash is a good place to hit a record on.

在安全性方面，可記錄事故減少了 35%。這使我們處於前四分之一，我想對比一下，五年前，我們在安全方面處於第四四分位，而我們不在第一季度，所以那裡取得了顯著的進步。從美元角度來看，營運現金流創歷史新高。 21 億美元是該公司歷史上的最高紀錄。如果你想打破紀錄，現金是打破紀錄的好地方。

You can see the CFOA margins at 15.1%, free cash flow conversion 152%. And then just some debt metrics, leverage metrics there. You can see that we improved on our gross debt, down to 3.6 to 3.8x. And then on a net debt standpoint, is at 3.3 from 3.5. What we're very proud of is the cumulative debt reduction in FY '20 was $1.3 billion, approximately 25% of the transaction debt. So in just a little over 8 months of acquisition ownership we, paid off a quarterly of debt that we took on to acquire the company. It's just a great job by the teams here.

您可以看到 CFOA 利潤率為 15.1%，自由現金流轉換為 152%。然後就是一些債務指標、槓桿指標。您可以看到我們的總債務有所改善，降至 3.6 至 3.8 倍。然後從淨債務的角度來看，從 3.5 降至 3.3。我們非常自豪的是，20 財年累積債務減少了 13 億美元，約佔交易債務的 25%。因此，在收購所有權的短短 8 個多月的時間裡，我們償還了為收購該公司而承擔的季度債務。這裡的團隊做得非常出色。

And then moving on 14 to the full year. Again, just great margin performance for that. So the full year organic was down about 10%. and again, same methodology without acquisitions, look at the operating margin that, to us, simply hold out flat at 17.2%, which is very hard to do on a volume drop and came in at a 17% decremental, which is a best-in-class performance. With acquisitions, looking at EBITDA adjusted, we raised it to 19.3%, again, showing the combination of the Win Strategy and acquiring companies that are accretive on margins to help out the total business.

然後從 14 開始進入全年。再次強調，利潤率表現非常出色。因此全年有機率下降了約 10%。再一次，在沒有收購的情況下，採用相同的方法，看看營業利潤率，對我們來說，只是保持在17.2% 的水平，這在銷量下降的情況下很難做到，並且下降了17% ，這是最好的──課堂表現。透過收購，考慮調整後的 EBITDA，我們再次將其提高至 19.3%，這表明獲勝策略與收購公司相結合，可以增加利潤，從而幫助整體業務發展。

So if you move to the transition here. So the Parker transformation, it's happening. Those numbers that you saw in the prior pages don't happen just by accident or by luck. So what we've been doing to drive that. So if you go to Page 16, all roads lead to the Win Strategy. And I would say it's the combination of our decentralized divisional structure with the Win Strategy that drives this unique ownership culture that is really putting up these kinds of results.

所以如果你轉到這裡進行過渡。所以帕克的轉變正在發生。您在前幾頁中看到的這些數字並不是偶然或幸運的。那麼我們一直在做些什麼來推動這個目標。因此，如果您翻到第 16 頁，您會發現所有道路都通往獲勝策略。我想說，正是我們分散的部門結構與獲勝策略的結合推動了這種獨特的所有權文化，真正取得了這些成果。

If you go to Page '17, just to elaborate a little bit more on what's different. We started off this time period with a major restructuring activity that's really started in FY '14, and you look at the cumulative restructuring we did for those 3 years. It was approximately $270 million of restructuring. So that really set us on a path of putting the right kind of cost structure in place.

如果您轉到第 17 頁，只是為了詳細說明不同之處。我們從這段時期開始進行了一項重大重組活動，該活動實際上是在 14 財年開始的，您可以看看我們在這 3 年中進行的累積重組。重組費用約 2.7 億美元。因此，這確實讓我們走上了一條建立正確成本結構的道路。

We've built upon that. We launched simplification in 2015. Immersed simplification on a broad standpoint is a structure and organization design on 80/20 and on Simple by Design. But just from a structure standpoint, you can see that we reduced 1/3 of the divisions of the company. And we made 2 major updates to the Parker business system, which is the Win Strategy. Building on the success of the original Win Strategy, we did 2.0 in 2015 and of course, 3.0, just recently and we're very excited about that because we have a ton of potential. We just launched it and has a lot of runway in front of it.

我們以此為基礎。我們在2015年推出了簡化。從廣義上講，沉浸式簡化是基於80/20和Simple by Design的結構和組織設計。但僅僅從結構的角度來看，你可以看到我們減少了公司1/3的部門。我們對帕克業務系統進行了兩次重大更新，這就是獲勝策略。在最初的獲勝策略取得成功的基礎上，我們在 2015 年推出了 2.0，當然，最近還推出了 3.0，我們對此感到非常興奮，因為我們擁有巨大的潛力。我們剛剛推出它，前面有很多跑道。

We talked about the power of the companies that we acquired. And you see that resilience coming through in the business like. I'm going to give you 2 slides coming up that will show you that resilience, objectively, looking at both margins and growth. But don't underestimate the takeaway of the purpose statement has really provided great create alignment and aspiration. And there's a big difference between being at work and being inspired by your work and purpose does that for you. And that's what our people feel about that.

我們討論了我們收購的公司的力量。你會看到這種韌性在企業中顯現出來。我將給你們兩張投影片，客觀地向你們展示這種彈性，同時考慮利潤率和成長。但不要低估目的陳述的意義，它確實提供了偉大的創造一致性和願望。工作和受到工作的啟發之間有很大的區別，而目標會為你做到這一點。這就是我們的員工對此的感受。

So on Slide 18, talk about the margin side. And I showed you this last quarter. And this is looking at the last 5 manufacturing recessions. And I would argue FY '20 has actually got 2 separate recessions in it. The industrial recession we were already in and the pandemic that came in, in March. But you can see whether you look at it on an as-reported basis or adjusted, you would see the significant step change in performance over these manufacturing recessions type here. Something we're very proud of and something that we intend to keep doing. And if you go to 19, this was a look at top line resilience and -- go to 19. Well, there. Okay.

所以在投影片 18 上，討論邊距方面。我上個季度向您展示了這一點。這是針對過去 5 次製造業衰退。我認為 20 財年實際上經歷了兩次獨立的衰退。三月我們已經陷入了工業衰退和疫情。但你可以看到，無論你是根據報告的基礎還是調整後的基礎來看，你都會看到這些製造業衰退類型的績效發生了重大的階躍變化。這是我們非常自豪的事情，也是我們打算繼續做的事情。如果你轉到 19，這是對頂線彈性的考察，然後轉到 19。嗯，就是這樣。好的。

So I recognize that the Great Recession and COVID-19 is not the same, but these are 2 examples of significant shocks to the system. My view, COVID-19 is worse. If you look at the GDP reduction across the world in the last quarter, it dwarfs any kind of GDP reduction happened in the Great recession. But let's just say, for the sake argument that the organic -- that the environment was the same. And we took the worst period that happened in the Great recession happened to be Q4 as well, and FY '09 was down 32%, and then what did we do last quarter? We did minus 21. Now hopefully, that'll be our worst quarter, time will tell. But we think it's going to be the worst quarter.

因此，我認識到大衰退和 COVID-19 並不相同，但這是對系統造成重大衝擊的兩個例子。我認為，COVID-19 更糟。如果你看看上個季度全球 GDP 的下降，你會發現它比大衰退期間發生的任何 GDP 下降都相形見絀。但我們只是說，為了有機的論點，環境是相同的。我們把大衰退中最糟糕的時期也發生在第四季度，09 財年下降了 32%，那麼上個季度我們做了什麼？我們的成績是負21。現在希望這將是我們最糟糕的一個季度，時間會證明一切。但我們認為這將是最糟糕的季度。

So why is it better? There's some distinct structural reasons why it's better. First, the CLARCOR acquisition is now part of our organic performance, and it has 80% aftermarket. So that's more resilient. The percent revenue that we get from innovative products and the way we calculate that as a percent of revenue is new to the world, new to the market, divided by our total revenue. That, over the last 5 years, that has more than doubled over this period of time. Innovative production more resilient, they grow faster, better margins. And then you've heard us talk about how we changed the mix in the international distribution by raising that by 500 bps over this period of time. And we've had better customer experience. We're not there. We have lots more to do on customer experience, but that's been another contributor.

那麼為什麼它更好呢？它之所以更好有一些明顯的結構性原因。首先，收購 CLARCOR 現在是我們有機業績的一部分，它擁有 80% 的售後市場。所以這樣更有彈性。我們從創新產品中獲得的收入百分比以及我們計算收入百分比的方式對於世界、市場來說都是新的，除以我們的總收入。在過去 5 年裡，這個數字在這段時間增加了一倍以上。創新生產更有彈性，它們成長更快，利潤更好。然後你聽到我們談論我們如何改變國際發行的組合，在這段時間內將其提高 500 個基點。我們擁有更好的客戶體驗。我們不在那裡。我們在客戶體驗方面還有很多工作要做，但這是另一個貢獻者。

So the top line, we're not immune to the cycle. We felt it, obviously, but it is better than we were before, and there's distinct reasons why it's better. And it's only going to get better in the future because LORD and Exotic, not yet in our organic numbers. And you can see, by the results we've showed so far, they are performing better than legacy Parker

所以最重要的是，我們不能倖免於這個週期。顯然，我們感覺到了，但它比以前更好，而且有明顯的原因可以解釋為什麼它更好。未來只會變得更好，因為 Lord 和 Exotic 尚未出現在我們的有機數字中。您可以看到，從我們迄今為止所展示的結果來看，他們的表現比傳統帕克要好

We move to Slide '20. Something we're very proud of, our cash generation history. I mentioned the CFOA record at $2.1 billion. And then we've just been very, very consistent. Good times and bad times, you've seen 19 consecutive years up to double-digit CFOA and greater than 1% free cash flow conversion. So I want to move to FY '21 and the outlook, and we decided to reinstate guidance. And you can make good arguments as to why not to give guidance with the uncertainty. And we're not trying to pretend that we're any smarter than anybody else because we're not. However, we're 4 months smarter than we were the last earnings call, and we've proven that we can operate safely and with strong results. And while the future is uncertain, we felt we are in the best position to communicate to shareholders and provide them the insight as to where we're going. And hence, that's why we decided to do guidance.

我們轉到投影片 '20。我們非常自豪的一點是我們的現金生成歷史。我提到了 CFOA 的記錄為 21 億美元。然後我們就一直非常非常一致。無論順境或逆境，您都見證了連續 19 年達到兩位數的 CFOA 和超過 1% 的自由現金流轉換。因此，我想談談 21 財年和展望，我們決定恢復指導。您可以就為什麼不針對不確定性提供指導提出充分的論點。我們並不是試圖假裝自己比別人更聰明，因為我們其實並不聰明。然而，我們比上次財報電話會議聰明了 4 個月，而且我們已經證明我們可以安全地運作並取得強勁業績。儘管未來不確定，但我們認為我們處於與股東溝通的最佳位置，並讓他們了解我們的發展方向。因此，這就是我們決定進行指導的原因。

Of course, it's an opportunity we'll have every quarter, and we will certainly get smarter as order entry comes in. And we'll update your thoughts as we go through and certainly, we'll go through this in more detail in the Q&A portion of the call. But I wanted to give you that context as to why we decided to guide before Cathy actually gives you some of the specific numbers.

當然，這是我們每個季度都會有的機會，隨著訂單輸入的到來，我們肯定會變得更加聰明。我們會在整個過程中更新您的想法，當然，我們會在通話的問答部分。但我想向您提供背景信息，說明為什麼我們決定在凱茜實際向您提供一些具體數字之前進行指導。

So then if you go to 22, a big part of our success in Q4 was our actions on costs. And this is a combination, as I've mentioned, of prior period restructuring, the Win Strategy and all the things we've been doing for years. And then the speed and agility of our pandemic response. But what you see here in contrast between what we did in Q4 and what we're going to do in FY '21 is a strategic shift in the cost to a more permanent cost action basis. So you can see the little donut chart in Q4 of FY '20, 12% permanent, and that's going to move to 55% permanent in FY '21.

因此，如果你考慮到 22，我們在第四季度取得成功的很大一部分是我們在成本方面採取的行動。正如我所提到的，這是前期重組、獲勝策略以及我們多年來一直在做的所有事情的結合。然後是我們應對大流行的速度和敏捷性。但是，與我們在第四季度所做的事情和我們將在 21 財年要做的事情相比，您在這裡看到的是成本的策略轉變，以更持久的成本行動為基礎。所以你可以看到 20 財年第四季的小甜甜圈圖，12% 是永久性的，而到 21 財年，這一比例將增加到 55%。

If you look underneath the donut for Q4, you see permanent actions. These are all savings. It was $25 million. And that was spot on what we told you last quarter. And you see the $175 million of savings that was less than what we told you. We told you a range of $250 million to $300 million. And it was lower because our volume was better, which was a good thing. We didn't necessarily give you specific guidance last quarter, but we -- in our own internal planning, we were projecting a 30% decline in volume. And hence, that's why we gave you the range in discretionary, came in at minus 21%, which we were grateful for, and we didn't need to do as many discretionary actions. We needed people to work more hours, which was a good thing.

如果您查看第四季度的甜甜圈下方，您會看到永久性的操作。這些都是節省下來的。價值 2500 萬美元。這正是我們上個季度告訴您的。您會發現節省的 1.75 億美元比我們告訴您的要少。我們告訴您的範圍為 2.5 億至 3 億美元。它之所以較低，是因為我們的音量更好，這是一件好事。我們不一定會在上個季度向您提供具體指導，但在我們自己的內部規劃中，我們預計銷售量將下降 30%。因此，這就是為什麼我們為您提供了可自由裁量的範圍，為-21%，我們對此表示感謝，並且我們不需要採取那麼多的可自由裁量行動。我們需要人們工作更多時間，這是一件好事。

Then when you move to '21, you see discretionary of $200 million. That will be mostly in the first half, and we will gradually wean off of that as we go through the first half. There will be some in the second half. There will be more local driven by what the general manager needs based on local conditions and predominantly help balancing plant hours to demand.

然後，當您進入 21 年時，您會看到 2 億美元的可自由支配資金。這主要是在上半場，隨著上半場的進行，我們將逐漸擺脫這種情況。下半年會有一些。總經理根據當地情況的需求將有更多的本地驅動，主要幫助平衡工廠工時與需求。

But then you see a permanent action rising to $250 million. And if you look at when COVID hit, and you take the second half of FY '20 and add all of FY '21, and look at our restructuring cost. So we did $65 million -- we're proposing $65 million of restructuring in FY '21. We did $60 million in the second half of FY '20. So that's $125 million, of what I would call COVID-related restructuring that's going to generate this $250 million of savings. So that might seem a little more efficient than normal. And the reason for that is it's going to be an asset-light restructuring plan. We will have very few plant closures, as a result, that's why it's a lot more efficient than normal.

但隨後您會看到永久行動的金額增加到 2.5 億美元。如果你看一下新冠疫情爆發的時間，然後將 20 財年的下半年和 21 財年的全部相加，然後看看我們的重組成本。因此，我們投入了 6,500 萬美元——我們提議在 21 財年進行 6,500 萬美元的重組。我們在 20 財年下半年的營收為 6,000 萬美元。因此，我稱之為與新冠病毒相關的重組的 1.25 億美元將產生 2.5 億美元的節省。所以這看起來可能比平常更有效率一些。原因是這將是一項輕資產重組計劃。因此，我們將很少有工廠關閉，這就是為什麼它的效率比正常情況要高得多。

So with that, I'm going to hand it back to Cathy for more details on the quarter.

因此，我將把它交還給凱西，以了解有關本季度的更多詳細資訊。

Okay. Thanks, Tom. I'd like you to now refer to Slide 24, and I'll summarize the fourth quarter financial results. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter. Current year adjusted earnings per share of $2.55 compares to $3.31 last year. Adjustments from the 2020 as reported results netted to $0.28, including business realignment expenses of $0.37 and lowered acquisition integration and transaction expenses of $0.05.

好的。謝謝，湯姆。我希望您現在參考投影片 24，我將總結第四季的財務表現。這張投影片展示了第四季報告和調整後的每股盈餘。本年度調整後每股收益為 2.55 美元，去年為 3.31 美元。與 2020 年報告結果相比的調整淨額為 0.28 美元，其中包括 0.37 美元的業務調整費用以及 0.05 美元的收購整合和交易費用。

These were offset by the tax effect of these adjustments of $0.09 and the result of a favorable tax settlement of $0.05. Prior year fourth quarter earnings per share had been adjusted by $0.14. The details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures.

這些調整被 0.09 美元的稅收影響和 0.05 美元的優惠稅結算結果所抵消。去年第四季每股收益調整了 0.14 美元。其詳細資訊包含在非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表中。

Moving to Slide 25. You'll find the significant components of the $0.76 walk from prior year fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share to $2.55 for this year. With organic sales down 21%, adjusted segment operating income decreased the equivalent of $0.61 per share or $99 million. Decremental margins on a year-over-year basis were 19%. Decremental margins without the impact of acquisitions were just 16%, demonstrating excellent cost containment and productivity by the teams.

轉到投影片 25。您會發現今年第四季調整後每股收益從去年同期的 0.76 美元上漲到 2.55 美元，其中的重要組成部分。由於有機銷售額下降 21%，調整後的部門營業收入減少了每股 0.61 美元，即 9,900 萬美元。利潤率較去年同期下降 19%。沒有收購影響的利潤率下降僅為 16%，這表明團隊出色的成本控制和生產力。

Offsetting this decline, we gained $0.07 from lower corporate G&A as a result of salary reductions taken during the quarter and tight cost controls on discretionary spending. Interest expense cost an additional $0.15 of earnings per share as debt is currently at a higher level because of the acquisitions. Income taxes accounted for an additional $0.08 of expense because we had fewer favorable discrete tax credits in the current quarter.

由於本季採取的減薪措施以及對可自由支配支出的嚴格成本控制，我們從較低的企業管理費用中獲得了 0.07 美元的收益，抵消了這一下降。由於收購導致債務目前處於較高水平，利息費用使每股收益額外損失 0.15 美元。所得稅額外增加了 0.08 美元的支出，因為本季我們的優惠離散稅收抵免較少。

Slide 26 shows total Parker segment sales -- total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter organic sales decreased year-over-year by 21.1%, and currency had a negative impact of 1.1%. Acquisition impact of 8.1% partially offset these declines. Total adjusted segment operating margins were 17.4% compared to 17.6% last year. This 20 basis point decline is net of the company's ability to absorb approximately 100 basis points or $33 million of incremental amortization expense from the acquisitions.

幻燈片 26 顯示了 Parker 部門的總銷售額——第四季度 Parker 部門的總銷售額和部門營業利潤率。第四季有機銷售額年減 21.1%，匯率帶來 1.1% 的負面影響。 8.1% 的收購影響部分抵消了這些下降。調整後分部營業利益率為 17.4%，而去年為 17.6%。 20 個基點的下降並未扣除公司從收購中吸收約 100 個基點或 3,300 萬美元增量攤銷費用的能力。

On Slide 27, we're showing the impact LORD and Exotic had on fourth quarter FY '20 on both an as-reported and adjusted basis. Sales from the acquisitions were $298 million and operating income on an adjusted basis were $32 million. The operating income for LORD and Exotic includes $35 million in amortization expense. I'd like to point out that the improvement of 50 basis points in legacy Parker operating income despite the $818 million drop in sales. The great work the teams did on controlling costs resulted in a 16% decremental margin for the quarter within the legacy businesses.

在投影片 27 上，我們展示了 Lord 和 Exotic 對 20 財年第四季的影響（按報告和調整後計算）。此次收購的銷售額為 2.98 億美元，調整後的營業收入為 3,200 萬美元。 Lord 和 Exotic 的營業收入包括 3500 萬美元的攤銷費用。我想指出的是，儘管銷售額下降了 8.18 億美元，但傳統 Parker 營業收入仍提高了 50 個基點。團隊在控製成本方面所做的出色工作導致本季度遺留業務的利潤率下降了 16%。

Moving to Slide 28. I'll discuss the business segments, starting with diversified industrial North America. For the fourth quarter, North America organic sales were down 24.7% while acquisitions contributed 7.6%. Operating margin for the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis was 16.5% of sales versus 18.4% last year. This 190 basis point decline includes absorbing approximately 60 basis points or $9 million of incremental amortization.

轉向幻燈片 28。我將討論業務部門，從多元化的工業北美開始。第四季度，北美有機銷售額下降 24.7%，而收購貢獻了 7.6%。調整後第四季營業利潤率的 16.5%，而去年為 18.4%。 190 個基點的下降包括吸收約 60 個基點或 900 萬美元的增量攤提。

North America's legacy businesses generated an impressive decremental margin of 24%, reflecting the hard work of diligent cost containment and productivity improvements, a favorable sales mix together with the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide 29. Organic sales for the fourth quarter in the industrial international segment decreased by 15.4%. Acquisitions contributed 5.4%, and currency had a negative impact of 2.9%. Operating margin for the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis increased to 16.8% of sales versus 16.4% last year. This 40 basis point improvement is net of the additional burden of approximately 110 basis points or $12 million of incremental amortization expense. The legacy businesses generated a very good decremental margin of just 9.8%, again, reflecting diligent cost containment, a favorable mix and the impact of the Win Strategy.

北美的傳統業務利潤率下降了 24%，令人印象深刻，這反映了努力控製成本和提高生產力、有利的銷售組合以及我們的獲勝策略舉措的影響。我將繼續幻燈片 29 上的多元化工業國際部門。工業國際部門第四季的有機銷售額下降了 15.4%。收購貢獻了 5.4%，貨幣的負面影響為 2.9%。調整後第四季營業利潤率增至銷售額的 16.8%，而去年同期為 16.4%。這 40 個基點的改善扣除了約 110 個基點的額外負擔或 1,200 萬美元的增量攤提費用。傳統業務的利潤率下降了，僅為 9.8%，這再次反映出了努力的成本控制、有利的組合以及獲勝策略的影響。

I'll now move to Slide 30 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic sales decreased 22.3% for the fourth quarter, partially offset by acquisitions contributing 14.3%. Declines in commercial OEM and aftermarket volume were partially offset by higher sales in both military OEM and aftermarket. Operating margins for the current fourth quarter increased to 20.4% of sales versus 17.9% last year. This is net of the incremental amortization expense impact of approximately 190 basis points or $12 million, a favorable mix, proactive realignment actions, cost containment and lower engineering development costs contributed nicely to the quarter. Good margin performance from Exotic and hard work by the teams on cost containment and productivity improvements helped contribute to the solid performance in the quarter.

我現在將轉到第 30 張投影片來回顧航空航天系統部分。第四季有機銷售額下降 22.3%，部分被佔 14.3% 的收購所抵銷。商業原始設備製造商和售後市場銷售的下降被軍事原始設備製造商和售後市場銷售的成長部分抵消。目前第四季的營業利潤率增至銷售額的 20.4%，而去年同期為 17.9%。這扣除了約 190 個基點或 1200 萬美元的增量攤銷費用影響，有利的組合、積極的調整行動、成本控制和較低的工程開發成本為本季度做出了良好貢獻。 Exotic 良好的利潤率表現以及團隊在成本控制和生產力提高方面的辛勤工作為本季度的穩健業績做出了貢獻。

On Slide 31, we're showing the impact LORD and Exotic has had during FY '20 on both an as-reported and adjusted basis. Sales from the acquisitions for the year totaled $949 million and operating income on an adjusted basis contributed $114 million. The LORD team was able to pull forward synergy savings, reaching a run rate of $40 million by the end of the year. These savings plus a great deal of hard work by the teams on integration, productivity and adjusting to lower volume due to the pandemic, helps the acquisitions be $0.04 per share accretive for the year after absorbing $100 million of amortization expense.

在投影片 31 上，我們展示了 Lord 和 Exotic 在 20 財年根據報告和調整後的影響。當年收購帶來的銷售額總計 9.49 億美元，調整後的營業收入貢獻了 1.14 億美元。 Lord 團隊能夠推進協同節約，到年底運行率達到 4,000 萬美元。這些節省加上團隊在整合、生產力和適應疫情造成的銷售下降方面所做的大量努力，有助於這些收購在吸收 1 億美元的攤銷費用後，今年每股收益增加 0.04 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA from LORD and Exotic is 26.3%. With this meaningful contribution from acquisitions, fiscal year '20 total Parker adjusted EBITDA has increased to 19.3% as compared to 18.2% for fiscal year 2019. Note that the legacy Parker business was able to improve EBITDA margin 60 basis points to 18.8% despite lower sales of nearly $1.6 billion.

Lord 和 Exotic 的調整後 EBITDA 為 26.3%。憑藉收購帶來的這項有意義的貢獻，派克20 財年調整後EBITDA 總額已增至19.3%，而2019 財年為18.2%。請注意，儘管派克傳統業務的EBITDA 利潤率較低，但仍能夠將EBITDA 利潤率提高60 個基點，達到18.8%。銷售額近16億美元。

On Slide 32, we report cash flow from operating activities. We had strong cash flow this year, resulting in record cash flow from operating activities of $2.1 billion or 15.1% of sales. This compares to 13.5% of sales for the same period last year. After last year's number has adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution. Free cash flow for the current year is 13.4% of sales, and the conversion rate to net income is 152%.

在投影片 32 上，我們報告了經營活動產生的現金流量。今年我們的現金流強勁，經營活動產生的現金流達到創紀錄的 21 億美元，佔銷售額的 15.1%。相比之下，去年同期的銷售額為 13.5%。去年的數字已根據 2 億美元的酌情退休金繳款進行了調整。本年自由現金流佔銷售額的13.4%，淨利折算率為152%。

Moving to Slide 33. I'd like to discuss our current leverage and liquidity position. Based on the continued strong free cash flow generation, and effective working capital management, we made a sizable $687 million reduction to our debt during the quarter, which brought our full year debt reduction to $1.3 billion, which is approximately 25% of the debt issued for the LORD and Exotic Metals acquisition. I apologize for a typo on the slide, the second bullet should be $1.3 billion rather than $1.3 million.

前往投影片 33。我想討論一下我們目前的槓桿率和流動性狀況。基於持續強勁的自由現金流產生和有效的營運資金管理，我們在本季度大幅減少了 6.87 億美元的債務，使全年債務減少至 13 億美元，約佔已發行債務的 25%用於耶和華和奇異金屬的收購。我對投影片上的拼字錯誤表示歉意，第二個項目符號應該是 13 億美元，而不是 130 萬美元。

With this reduction, our gross debt EBITDA leverage metric at the end of the quarter was 3.6x, down from 3.8x at March 31, despite a drop in EBITDA. Our net debt-to-EBITDA reduced to 3.3x from 3.5x at March 31. We've continued to suspend our 10b5-1 share repurchase program and we remain committed to paying our shareholders a dividend, and we intend to uphold our record of annually increasing the dividend paid.

透過此次削減，儘管 EBITDA 有所下降，但本季末我們的總債務 EBITDA 槓桿指標仍為 3.6 倍，低於 3 月 31 日的 3.8 倍。我們的淨負債與 EBITDA 比率從 3 月 31 日的 3.5 倍減少到 3.3 倍。我們繼續暫停我們的 10b5-1 股票回購計劃，我們仍然致力於向股東支付股息，我們打算維持我們的記錄每年增加支付的股利。

Moving to Slide 34, we show the details of current order rates by segment. Total orders decreased by 22% as of the quarter ending June. This year-over-year decline is a consolidation of minus 29% within Diversified Industrial North America, minus 21% within Diversified Industrial International and minus 5% within Aerospace Systems orders. Just a reminder that we report the Aerospace Systems orders on a 12-month rolling average.

前往投影片 34，我們按細分顯示目前訂單率的詳細資訊。截至 6 月底的季度，訂單總數下降了 22%。北美多元化工業訂單年減-29%，多元化工業國際訂單較去年同期下降-21%，航太系統訂單較去年同期下降-5%。請注意，我們按照 12 個月滾動平均值報告航空航天系統訂單。

The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year '21 is outlined on Slide 35. Guidance is being provided on both an as-reported and an adjusted basis. Beginning with this fiscal year '21 guidance, as we've previously announced, we are revising our disclosures for adjusted segment operating earnings and adjusted earnings per share. With this guidance, we will now start to include acquisition-related intangible asset amortization expense in our adjustments. We think these adjusted results will provide a better representation of our core operating earnings year-over-year. In the appendix of today's slides, you can find the impact of the acquisition-related asset amortization expense on fiscal year '19 and fiscal year '20.

投影片 35 概述了 21 財年的全年獲利指引。指引是根據報告和調整後的基礎提供的。正如我們之前宣布的那樣，從本財年 21 財年指引開始，我們將修訂調整後部門營運收益和調整後每股收益的揭露資訊。根據這項指導，我們現在將開始將與收購相關的無形資產攤銷費用納入調整中。我們認為這些調整後的結果將更能代表我們同比的核心營業收入。在今天投影片的附錄中，您可以找到與收購相關的資產攤銷費用對 19 財年和 20 財年的影響。

In today's pandemic environment, total sales for fiscal year '21 are expected to decrease between 10.7% and 6.7% compared to the prior year. Anticipated organic decline for the full year is forecasted at a midpoint of 11.3%. Acquisitions are expected to benefit growth at a midpoint of 2.7% while currency is projected to have a marginal negative 0.1% impact. We've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended June 30, 2020, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for fiscal year '21. You can see the forecasted as reported and adjusted operating margins by segment.

在當今的大流行環境下，21 財年的總銷售額預計將比前一年減少 10.7% 至 6.7%。預計全年有機下降的中位數為 11.3%。收購預計將有利於經濟成長 2.7%，而匯率預計將產生 0.1% 的邊際負面影響。我們計算了截至 2020 年 6 月 30 日的季度貨幣對即期匯率的影響，並在估計 21 財年的同比影響時保持這些匯率穩定。您可以按部門查看報告和調整後的預測營業利潤率。

At the midpoint, total Parker adjusted margins are forecasted to decrease approximately 80 basis points from prior year. For guidance, we are estimating adjusted margins in a range of 17.8% to 18.4% for the full fiscal year. The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. For the full year, the guidance range on an as-reported earnings per share basis is $7.41 to $8.41 or $7.91 at the midpoint.

預計帕克調整後利潤總額將比前一年下降約 80 個基點。作為指導，我們預計整個財年的調整後利潤率將在 17.8% 至 18.4% 之間。全年有效稅率預計為23%。就全年而言，基於報告的每股收益的指導範圍為 7.41 美元至 8.41 美元，中間值為 7.91 美元。

On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is $9.80 to $10.80 or $10.30 at the midpoint. The adjustments to the as-reported forecast made in this guidance, at a pretax level, include business realignment expenses of approximately $65 million for the full year fiscal 2021 with the associated savings projected to be $120 million in the current year.

根據調整後每股收益，指導範圍為 9.80 美元至 10.80 美元，中間值為 10.30 美元。本指引中對稅前水準的預測進行的調整包括 2021 財年全年約 6,500 萬美元的業務調整費用，預計本年度相關節省為 1.2 億美元。

We anticipate integration costs to achieve of $19 million. Synergy savings for LORD are projected to hit a run rate of $80 million and for Exotic, a run rate of $2 million by the end of the year. And in addition, acquisition-related intangible asset amortization expense of $321 million will be included in our adjustments. Some additional key assumptions for full year 2021 guidance at the midpoint are: sales will be divided 47% first half, 53% second half; adjusted segment operating income is divided 43% first half, 57% second half; adjusted earnings per share first half/second half is divided 40%, 60%.

我們預計整合成本將達到 1900 萬美元。到今年年底，LORD 的協同節省預計將達到 8,000 萬美元，Exotic 的運行率將達到 200 萬美元。此外，與收購相關的無形資產攤銷費用 3.21 億美元也將納入我們的調整中。 2021 年全年指引中點的一些額外關鍵假設是： 銷售額將分為上半年 47%，下半年 53%；調整後分部營業收入分為上半年43%、下半年57%；調整後每股盈餘上半年/下半年分為40%、60%。

First quarter fiscal 2021 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.15 per share at the midpoint, and this excludes to $0.67 per share or $115 million of projected acquisition-related amortization expense, business realignment expenses and integration costs to achieve.

2021 財年第一季調整後每股收益中位數預計為每股 2.15 美元，不包括每股 0.67 美元或 1.15 億美元的預期收購相關攤銷費用、業務調整費用和整合成本。

On Slide 36, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of fiscal year 2020 adjusted earnings per share compared to the adjusted fiscal year '21 guidance of $10.3 at the midpoint. Fiscal year '20, adjusted earnings per share was reported at $10.79. To make it comparable to the fiscal year '21 guidance, which includes an adjusted for which includes an adjustment for acquisition-related asset amortization expense, we show the adjustment of $1.68 to get to a comparable $12.47.

在投影片 36 上，您將發現 2020 財年調整後每股盈餘的主要組成部分與 21 財年調整後指引值中點 10.3 美元的調整情況。 20 財年，調整後每股收益為 10.79 美元。為了使其與 21 財年的指導（其中包括與收購相關的資產攤銷費用的調整）具有可比性，我們顯示了 1.68 美元的調整，以達到可比的 12.47 美元。

With organic sales down over 11%, adjusted segment operating income is expected to drop approximately $1.95. This would result in decremental margins of 27% on a year-over-year basis. Corporate G&A and other expense is projected to negatively impact earnings per share by $0.36 because of gains achieved in fiscal year '20 that are not anticipated to repeat.

由於有機銷售額下降超過 11%，調整後的部門營業收入預計將下降約 1.95 美元。這將導致利潤率同比下降 27%。由於預計 20 財年所取得的收益不會重複，公司 G&A 和其他費用預計將對每股收益產生 0.36 美元的負面影響。

Offsetting these declines, interest expense is projected to be $0.29 lower in fiscal year '21. An income tax rate of 23% will reduce earnings per share by $0.10 year-over-year. And the assumption of a full year of suspending share buybacks is projected to result in a $0.05 dilution due to an increase in average shares outstanding. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance, which should now include adjusting for acquisition-related amortization expense. This concludes my prepared comments. Please turn to Slide 37. I'll turn it back over to Tom.

預計 21 財年利息支出將減少 0.29 美元，抵消這些下降。 23% 的所得稅稅率將使每股盈餘年減 0.10 美元。假設全年暫停股票回購，由於平均已發行股票的增加，預計將導致 0.05 美元的稀釋。我們要求您繼續使用調整後的指引來發布您的估計，其中現在應包括收購相關攤銷費用的調整。我準備好的評論到此結束。請翻到幻燈片 37。我會把它轉回給湯姆。

Thank you, Cathy. I thought we would close with what is probably an obvious question on most people's minds is, how do you feel about the FY '23 targets that you just outlined in IR Day given the pandemic and what it's done. And the short answer is, we're still committed to them.

謝謝你，凱西。我想我們會以大多數人心中可能存在的一個明顯問題結束：考慮到這場流行病及其所做的工作，您對您剛剛在 IR Day 中概述的 23 財年目標有何看法。簡而言之，我們仍然致力於這些目標。

We've made tremendous progress on margins, and our top line is clearly becoming more resilient. While the top line revenue that Cathy articulated in IR Day was $16.4 billion, that will be very hard to hit. But we can still grow faster than the market, which is our intention. So these targets you see in this page, growing faster than global industrial production index.

我們在利潤率方面取得了巨大進步，我們的營收顯然也變得更有彈性。儘管 Cathy 在 IR Day 上公佈的營收為 164 億美元，但要達到這個數字將非常困難。但我們仍然可以比市場成長得更快，這就是我們的意圖。因此，您在本頁中看到的這些目標的成長速度快於全球工業生產指數。

The margin targets of 21% at the op margin and EBITDA free cash flow conversion and EPS, barring a recession in FY '23 and recognize that we have 3 full fiscal years left to get here and provided we get some modest growth as we go in FY '22 and '23, we believe we can hit these numbers. So again, I wanted to just close by saying thank you to the Parker team, especially thank you for keeping each other safe and for what you've been doing on all of our safety protocols and for the great results we had in FY '20. And I'll turn it over to Sarah to start the Q&A.

營運利潤率、EBITDA 自由現金流轉換和每股收益的利潤率目標為21%，除非23 財年出現衰退，並認識到我們還有3 個完整的財年才能實現這一目標，前提是我們在進入時獲得一些適度的增長22 財年和 23 財年，我們相信我們可以達到這些數字。最後，我要再次向 Parker 團隊表示感謝，特別感謝你們保證彼此的安全，感謝你們在我們所有安全協議方面所做的工作，以及我們在 20 財年取得的巨大成果。我會將其交給莎拉來開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase 線。

So maybe starting with the expectation for decremental margins. I saw on the slide that you guys are anticipating 30% decremental. I think that's inclusive of the cost savings plan you laid out. So I guess just maybe frame for us why decrementals should step-up from here since the performance this quarter was so impressive.

因此，也許可以從利潤減少的預期開始。我在投影片上看到你們預計會減少 30%。我認為這包括您制定的成本節約計劃。因此，我想這可能是我們的框架，為什麼遞減應該從這裡開始，因為本季的表現如此令人印象深刻。

Yes. Nicole, it's Tom. So I'll start. Our decrementals, if you look at the quarters for FY '21, our projection float in the range of 25% to 30%. So still best-in-class type of performance. The difference between, say, where we were in Q4, and that is a couple of things. One, in Q4, we had a little bit of help with mix. We had a lot less mobile business than we had in the past. And that business is typically significantly lower margin than distribution and industrial.

是的。妮可，是湯姆。那我就開始吧。我們的減量，如果你看看 21 財年的季度，我們的預測浮動在 25% 到 30% 的範圍內。因此仍然是同類最佳的性能類型。比如說，我們在第四季的情況之間的差異有幾件事。第一，在第四季度，我們在混音方面得到了一些幫助。我們的行動業務比過去少了很多。該業務的利潤率通常明顯低於分銷和工業業務。

So the distribution and industrial portion of the company's revenue in Q4 was disproportionately higher than it normally is. So that is not going to sustain itself. It's going to go back to more normal levels as mobile comes back as we go through the full year. So that will become a headwind.

因此，該公司第四季度收入中的分銷和工業部分不成比例地高於正常水平。所以這不會持續下去。隨著全年行動裝置的回歸，它將回到更正常的水平。所以這將成為一個逆風。

The other part in Q4 is we had, as you saw from the results, a terrific performance by Aerospace, which was helped with some seasonal help on the international military MRO, where we had a very sharp increase versus prior periods, and that's very high margins that comes with it. So those will be the 2 key reasons. But even with that, I would suggest to you that with these kind of volume drops, a 25% to 30% decremental. And I looked at all of our peers before we came into this, would still put us in the top quartile position.

正如您從結果中看到的那樣，第四季度的另一部分是航空航天的出色表現，這得益於國際軍事MRO 的一些季節性幫助，與之前的時期相比，我們的增長非常急劇，而且非常高隨之而來的利潤。所以這些都會是兩個關鍵原因。但即便如此，我還是建議你，隨著這種交易量的下降，減少 25% 到 30%。在我們進入這個領域之前，我觀察了我們所有的同行，仍然認為我們處於前四分之一的位置。

Yes, absolutely. And just as my second question, I know you guys have said that you didn't see a ton of improvement from April to May when you spoke previously, but can you maybe characterize what you guys saw in June and anything quarter-to-date in July?

是的，一點沒錯。正如我的第二個問題，我知道你們說過，當你們之前發言時，你們沒有看到從4 月到5 月有很大的改善，但是你們能否描述一下你們在6 月和季度至今所看到的情況在七月？

Yes. So I'll continue on Nicole. So through the quarter, we saw industrial North America and international bottomed in May, improved in June and July's orders are indicative of what -- I'll give you kind of how we feel what the first and second half splits for our guide. And then aerospace weakened through the quarter, and I'll give you more color on aerospace here in a second. So when you go to the full year, you saw our guide at minus 11%. That minus 11% is made up of our first half of minus 19%, second half of minus 3%.

是的。所以我會繼續討論妮可。因此，整個季度，我們看到北美和國際工業在5 月觸底，6 月和7 月的訂單有所改善，這些都表明了——我將向您介紹我們對上半年和下半年的情況的看法。然後航空航天業在本季度表現疲軟，我稍後會為您提供有關航空航天業的更多資訊。因此，當您查看全年時，您會看到我們的指導值為-11%。這個負 11% 由上半年的負 19% 和下半年的負 3% 組成。

So what was our thinking as we thought through this. So if you look at it by segment, North America, and I'll start with how Q4 ended and ten kind of parlay that into how our thinking about the first half. So Q4 in North America ended at minus 25%. Based on the orders we saw in June and July, we see some modest improvement going into the first half. We forecast at a minus 21% for the first half, then it gets to flat for the second half of FY '21. International came in at minus 15% organically. Again, based on order entry in June and July. We have that going to a minus 12%, modest improvement and going to almost flat in the second half as well.

那麼，當我們思考這個問題時，我們的想法是什麼？因此，如果您按北美細分市場來看待，我將從第四季度的結束情況開始，並透過十種組合來探討我們對上半年的看法。因此北美第四季的成長率為-25%。根據我們在六月和七月看到的訂單，我們看到上半年出現了一些適度的改善。我們預測上半年的成長率為-21%，然後 21 財年下半年將持平。國際市場的有機成長率為-15%。同樣，基於六月和七月的訂單輸入。我們的成長率將達到-12%，略有改善，下半年也幾乎持平。

And aerospace was minus 22%, helped a little bit because of that high international military MRO. We see that weakening a little bit in the first half at minus 26% and then improves but still being in a tough environment and longer cycle, minus 15%. So again, you get the first half of minus 19%, second half at minus 3%. But we get to Q4 when we anniversary the pandemic, and we show high single-digit positives. The thing that I would point out our view on this is that and our thinking behind the whole guidance is that the industrial recovery has started, but it's going to be uneven, and there's going to be a fair amount of demand uncertainty. And I think that, that improvement is going to follow the more or less a lag behind how the virus improves. In that sense, while we forecasted a modest improvement in the first half, and we still had Aerospace declining as it's a longer cycle, taking a while to adjust out those orders.

航空航太業的成長率為負 22%，由於國際軍事 MRO 較高，這起到了一定的幫助。我們看到上半年略有減弱，為-26%，然後有所改善，但仍處於艱難的環境和更長的周期中，為-15%。同樣，上半年為負 19%，下半年為負 3%。但到了第四季度，我們正值大流行週年紀念日，我們顯示出高個位數的正面數字。我要指出的是，我們對此的看法是，整個指導背後的想法是，工業復甦已經開始，但復甦將是不平衡的，並且將存在相當大的需求不確定性。我認為，這種改善將或多或少落後於病毒的改善。從這個意義上說，雖然我們預測上半年會有適度改善，但航空航太業務仍在下滑，因為它的周期較長，需要一段時間來調整這些訂單。

In the second half, we see things slowly starting to build. And what I would say is positioning for a really good Q4, but really positioning ourselves for an excellent FY '22. Industrials are obviously going to outpace aerospace here as far as performance, and Asia is going to -- it's going to run fast within North America and EMEA. So that's just a little color so far on what we think for the guide.

在下半場，我們看到事情慢慢開始發展。我想說的是，我們要為第四季的業績做好準備，同時也要為 22 財年的出色業績做好準備。就性能而言，這裡的工業顯然將超過航空航天，而亞洲也將在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區快速發展。到目前為止，這只是我們對指南的一些看法。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究的傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague）。

Also, maybe a little clarification on how the cost actions work through, if we could, Tom or Cathy. I guess the nature of my question, first, just looking at Slide 22. So should we think of discretionary actions then as a headwind in the first quarter of roughly $125 million. So we're going from $175 million in Q4 to $50 million in Q1 and running $50 million a quarter through '21 to get to that $200 million?

另外，如果可以的話，湯姆或凱西，也許可以稍微澄清一下成本行動是如何進行的。首先，我猜想我的問題的本質，只需看看投影片 22。那麼我們是否應該將酌情採取的行動視為第一季約 1.25 億美元的逆風。那麼我們將從第四季的 1.75 億美元增加到第一季的 5,000 萬美元，並在 21 年每季運行 5,000 萬美元，以達到 2 億美元？

Jeff, it's Tom. No. Most of the discretionary things will continue in Q1, and we'll start to slowly muting them off in Q2. And I -- so -- mostly, it's going to happen so Q1 will look a lot like Q4 or less, and Q2 will have a small amount, and then you'll have just a very little valve-like trickle into the second half of '21.

傑夫，是湯姆。不會。大多數可自由支配的事情將在第一季繼續進行，我們將在第二季開始慢慢取消它們。我 - 所以 - 大多數情況下，這將會發生，所以 Q1 看起來很像 Q4 或更少，而 Q2 會有少量，然後你只會有一個非常小的閥門般的細流進入下半場'21.

That portion is hard to predict because it will be very much sensitive to demand, just like you saw what we did in Q4, how it flexed based on demand, it will flex based on what happens on demand as we go forward. But we're going to continue the discretionary, pretty much full steam for Q1, but the permanent starts to compensate for that based on what we did in the second half and what we're doing in FY '21. To cover those total costs, we need to come out, plus at the same time, our volume is starting to get better as we move through those quarters.

這部分很難預測，因為它將對需求非常敏感，就像你看到我們在第四季度所做的那樣，它如何根據需求進行調整，隨著我們的發展，它將根據需求發生的情況進行調整。但我們將在第一季繼續酌情、幾乎全力以赴，但根據我們下半年所做的事情以及我們在 21 財年所做的事情，永久開始彌補這一點。為了支付這些總成本，我們需要走出去，同時，隨著我們度過這些季度，我們的銷售開始變得更好。

Yes. So on the permanent then, Tom, sounds like those build over the course of the year. Is that -- can you give us a little color on that trajectory? Is that indicative of the run rate also as you exit? Or do you actually exit at a higher run rate than that $250 million?

是的。那麼，湯姆，就永久性而言，聽起來像是在一年中建立的。那是——你能為我們提供一些關於這條軌蹟的資訊嗎？這是否也表明您退出時的運行率？或者您實際上以高於 2.5 億美元的運行率退出？

Well, the splits on the $250 million approximately 57% in the first half, 43% in the second half. And so part of it's making up to $250 million is we get $130 million that's carryover from FY '20's actions. And then we got $120 million coming from the new $65 million of costs that we're incurring in FY '21. So it's a combination of the 2 coming in there.

嗯，2.5 億美元的分配比例在上半年約為 57%，下半年為 43%。因此，高達 2.5 億美元的一部分是我們從 20 財年行動中結轉的 1.3 億美元。然後，我們從 21 財年新增的 6,500 萬美元成本中獲得了 1.2 億美元。所以這是兩者的結合。

And just one last one, if I could. On cash flow, greater than 10% now doesn't sound like a real high bar. But are you assuming now, given the performance that you've put up recently, but are you assuming some kind of negative working capital swing into next year that would be muting the cash flow?

如果可以的話，就只有最後一張。就現金流而言，超過 10% 現在聽起來並不是一個真正的高標準。但是，鑑於您最近的表現，您現在是否假設明年會出現某種負營運資本，從而抑制現金流？

No. Again, Jeff, it's Tom. We don't want to go backwards on that percent. The dollar has become tougher because we're forecasting $1.2 billion less revenue. However, from a percent standpoint, CFOA margin and recognize we had -- that was a really great year at 15%. It's -- I'm not saying we can always do that every time. But I would -- I can tell you, I would not be happy if we came in at 10. So we're going to be looking to be well north of that. And where we come in, we'll see what happens. But the expectation is we will continue to work the working capital. We have opportunities still on inventory. We have opportunities with our acquisitions on inventory and we're going to work receivables and payables like we normally do. So I would see it being a team effort on the cash flow, just like we've always done.

不，再說一遍，傑夫，是湯姆。我們不想在這個百分比上倒退。美元變得更加堅挺，因為我們預計收入將減少 12 億美元。然而，從百分比的角度來看，CFOA 利潤率並承認我們擁有——那是 15% 的非常好的一年。我並不是說我們每次都可以這樣做。但我會 - 我可以告訴你，如果我們在 10 點進入，我不會高興。所以我們將尋求遠遠超出該水平。我們進來的地方，我們會看看會發生什麼。但預計我們將繼續使用營運資金。我們的庫存仍有機會。我們有機會收購庫存，並且我們將像平常一樣處理應收帳款和應付帳款。因此，我認為這是現金流的團隊努力，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

So Tom, maybe just digging in a little bit further into the end market trends. I know a lot of your business is short cycle, so there isn't a tremendous amount of visibility. But it seems like if I heard you correctly, the modest improvement in both North America and international, I mean, is the way to think about it, that July then, for North America, was down, let's say, north of 20%, international's still down double digits, mid-teens?

湯姆，也許只是進一步深入了解終端市場趨勢。我知道你們的很多業務都是短週期的，所以沒有很大的知名度。但如果我沒聽錯的話，我的意思是，北美和國際的適度改善是思考這個問題的方式，當時的 7 月份北美下降了，比方說，下降了 20% 以上，國際仍然下跌兩位數，十幾歲左右？

And then I guess just -- I guess, the second part of the question is really, as you talk to your distributors, what are they saying about inventory levels and the potential for restock?

然後我想，我想，問題的第二部分實際上是，當您與經銷商交談時，他們對庫存水準和補貨潛力有何看法？

Yes. So let me start with the restocking question. So right now, we're forecasting that distribution will continue to probably have some mild destocking for the first half, not as much as what we saw, obviously, in Q4 with some mild destocking. To maybe give you a little bit more color on the markets. We -- so the minus 11% at the midpoint is North America at minus 11%, international at minus 7%, Aerospace at minus 20%.

是的。那麼讓我從補貨問題開始。因此，現在，我們預測上半年分銷可能會繼續出現一些溫和的去庫存情況，顯然不會像我們在第四季度看到的那樣，出現一些溫和的去庫存情況。也許可以讓你對市場有更多的了解。我們－所以負11%的中點是北美負11%，國際負7%，航空航太負20%​​。

But I want to give you a little bit more insight on international. So we're forecasting EMEA, and these are, obviously, put a plus or minus on these numbers at minus 10%, Asia Pacific is flat, and Latin America at minus 10%, so it's a small part of the portfolio. But we have a number of markets that, if I just give you -- I'll give you a couple of comments, and I'll try not to make this too lengthy.

但我想讓你對國際有更多的了解。因此，我們預測歐洲、中東和非洲地區，顯然，這些數字的正負值為-10%，亞太地區持平，拉丁美洲為負10%，所以它只佔投資組合的一小部分。但我們有很多市場，如果我只是給你一些評論，我會盡量不要說太長。

Our view of end markets for FY '21 and again, my comments are not trying to position the entire market. I'm just speaking on how Parker is going to do. But what we saw as positive is life sciences, and we're going to continue to see a pretty good first half on that based on the ventilator, but that will decline as we go into second half. Power generation coming off the bottom, still being positive. Semiconductor being positive. And then we'll have Aerospace, military OEM and Aerospace Military MRO being positive on mid-single digits. And automotive actually being positive for the full year. And automotive will be negative for the first half. But it turns to be a positive for the second half as we see both combustion engine volume, and in particular, our content on EV and HEV, being such a strong bill of material there that, that will drive a lot of growth for us in our engineered materials business. Then in the neutral category, we've got mean material handling, mining, ag, telecommunications, refrigeration and forestry. Then on the negative portion, for FY '21, we've got distribution now. We think distribution has reached bottom. And it started a slight recovery except for those distributors that support oil and gas. I mentioned in my comment about destocking. So it'll be down probably high single digits in the 5% to 10% range in the first half. Some regions could be worse, turning positive in Q4. But we look at Asia being positive for distribution for the full year.

我們對 21 財年終端市場的看法，我的評論並不是試圖定位整個市場。我只是談論帕克將如何做到這一點。但我們認為生命科學是正面的，我們將繼續看到基於呼吸器的上半年表現相當不錯，但隨著進入下半年，這種情況將會下降。發電量觸底回升，仍向好。半導體積極。然後航空航天、軍事 OEM 和航空航天軍事 MRO 的業績將達到中個位數。汽車行業全年的表現實際上是積極的。上半年汽車業將出現負面影響。但這對下半年來說是一個積極的因素，因為我們看到內燃機銷量，特別是我們在電動車和混合動力汽車上的內容，在那裡的材料清單非常強勁，這將為我們帶來很大的成長我們的工程材料業務。然後在中性類別中，我們有平均材料處理、採礦、農業、電信、冷凍和林業。然後，對於 21 財年的負面部分，我們現在已經進行了分配。我們認為分配已觸底。除了那些支持石油和天然氣的分銷商之外，它開始略有復甦。我在評論中提到了去庫存。因此，上半年可能會出現 5% 至 10% 範圍內的高個位數下降。一些地區的情況可能會更糟，並在第四季度轉為正值。但我們認為亞洲全年的分銷前景樂觀。

And then on the aerospace, which is probably where people have a lot of questions, what did we assume on the aerospace side? So commercial OEM, we assumed a minus 25% to 30%, something in that range for the full year. And how we came up with that is we took current anticipated production rates. So the rates that you see published by the airframers and the engine makers and times our bill of material. Obviously, that's subject to change, but that's based on current production rates that we know of right now.

然後在航空航天方面，這可能是人們有很多疑問的地方，我們在航空航天方面的假設是什麼？因此，對於商業 OEM，我們假設全年的成長率為負 25% 到 30%，在這個範圍內。我們是如何得出這個結論的，我們採用了目前的預期生產力。因此，您看到的機身製造商和發動機製造商公佈的費率以及我們的材料清單的時間。顯然，這可能會發生變化，但這是基於我們目前所知的當前生產力。

And then on commercial MRO, we forecasted that down to minus 35% to minus 40%. And recognizing that, that tends to follow available seat kilometers and so we got a first half being obviously more stressed on commercial MRO at minus 50% and a second half of minus 20% to minus 30%. And then rounding out the rest of the negative markets of construction and truck, machine tools, oil and gas, rail, tires and mills and foundries. So that's a quick spin to the end markets that kind of how we came up with the guidance.

然後在商業 MRO 方面，我們預測會下降至負 35% 至負 40%。認識到這一點，這往往遵循可用座位公里數，因此我們上半年的商業 MRO 壓力明顯更大，為負 50%，下半年為負 20% 至負 30%。然後是建築和卡車、工具機、石油和天然氣、鐵路、輪胎、工廠和鑄造廠等其他負面市場。因此，這就是我們如何提出指導意見的最終市場的快速旋轉。

And I would tell you that our process, we use a process, which is similar to what we've done in the past, where we take all the end markets, the top 20, we look at external forecasts and we build it up kind of by end markets. We take our divisions and groups and build it up. We also take our customer distributors. But this year, we've built an AI model, which is the first time we've ever done this. And we used the last 10 years with the data in our history to help come up with what are the interdependencies on things that will predict our future forecast.

我想告訴你，我們的流程，我們使用的流程與我們過去所做的類似，我們採用所有終端市場，前 20 個，我們查看外部預測並建立它的終端市場。我們把我們的部門和小組建立起來。我們也接受我們的客戶經銷商。但今年，我們建立了一個人工智慧模型，這是我們第一次這樣做。我們使用過去 10 年的歷史資料來幫助找出可以預測我們未來預測的事物之間的相互依賴性。

Now recognizing, we never had a pandemic in the past 10 years. So that's new and while the AI model was helpful, until we have more months of the pandemic in there, it will continue to be refined. So there's been -- there was a fair amount of science, but I would just tell you, this is a forecast, and we all know what happens as forecasts. This is our best effort at this point to tell you what we think is going to happen.

現在認識到，過去十年我們從未發生過大流行。所以這是新的，雖然人工智慧模型很有幫助，但在我們經歷幾個月的大流行之前，它將繼續完善。因此，有相當多的科學依據，但我只想告訴你，這是一個預測，我們都知道預測會發生什麼。這是我們目前盡力告訴您我們認為將會發生的情況。

That was very helpful. And my quick follow-up, and apologies if I missed it because I got cut out of the last question, and I think Jeff asked this question.

這非常有幫助。我的快速跟進，如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，因為我被排除在最後一個問題之外，我認為傑夫問了這個問題。

But just thinking from a quantification perspective on the cost outs. I just want to make sure it's clear. So for fiscal '21, you've got $450 million in cost benefits. We netting that number against the $175 million in discretionary actions from fiscal year '20? Or what's the right number to think of it as a net benefit in fiscal '21?

但只是從量化的角度思考成本支出。我只是想確保它清楚。因此，在 21 財年，您將獲得 4.5 億美元的成本效益。我們將這個數字與 20 財年 1.75 億美元的酌情行動相提並論？或將其視為 21 財年淨收益的正確數字是多少？

So maybe I can help you out a little bit. We're keeping the permanent savings separate from the temporary action savings. So they're independent of each other. We did about -- the total year of fiscal year '20 had about $76 million of cost. And we see carryover savings into fiscal '21. A lot of those costs came through the fourth quarter. And we see the benefit coming into '21.

所以也許我可以幫你一點。我們將永久儲蓄與臨時行動儲蓄分開。所以他們是互相獨立的。我們所做的事——20 財年的總成本約為 7,600 萬美元。我們也看到 21 財年的結轉節省。其中大部分成本來自第四季。我們看到 21 世紀將帶來好處。

So of the savings you see in fiscal year '21, some comes from the actions we already took. The rest will come -- about $120 million will come from the actions we plan to take in the -- in fiscal year '21. Those actions will be heavily weighted into the first half, about 75% of the dollars will come through the first half and 25% in the second half. So you'll see most of the savings coming into fiscal year '21 from those actions.

因此，在您在 21 財年看到的節省中，有些來自我們已經採取的行動。其餘的將在 21 財年實現——大約 1.2 億美元將來自我們計劃在 21 財年採取的行動。這些行動將在上半年佔據重要地位，約 75% 的美元將來自上半年，25% 將來自下半年。因此，您將看到 21 財年的大部分節省都來自這些行動。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe)。

And lots of great detail. So no free cash flow forecast for FY '21. So should we take the cash EPS as the best estimate for free cash flow? But we do have cash restructuring to think about. And I guess my -- my real question is, do you think that working capital will come down in line with sales? Or are we getting to a point now where we have to start rebuilding some during the second half of fiscal?

還有很多很棒的細節。因此，21 財年沒有自由現金流預測。那麼我們是否應該將現金每股盈餘作為自由現金流的最佳估計呢？但我們確實需要考慮現金重組。我想我真正的問題是，您認為營運資金會隨著銷售額的下降而下降嗎？或者我們現在已經到了必須在本財年下半年開始重建的地步？

Good question, Nigel. Yes, you can expect that cash flow -- what we like to say for our target is more than 10%, as Tom described, 10% only would be disappointing for us at this point. If sales decline, as we're projecting, then we would expect working capital to come out accordingly as we typically do. We're very good at pulling that working capital down as the volume comes down.

好問題，奈傑爾。是的，你可以預期現金流量——我們想說的目標是超過 10%，正如 Tom 所描述的，目前只有 10% 會讓我們感到失望。如果銷售額如我們預測的那樣下降，那麼我們預計營運資金將像我們通常所做的那樣相應減少。我們非常擅長隨著交易量的下降而減少營運資金。

The improvements that we talked about in the second half or in the fourth quarter, keep in mind, is talking against some pretty low comparables. So it shows improvement year-over-year, but it's not a significant dollar increase in terms of volume. So it would not require significant working capital in the fourth quarter.

請記住，我們在下半年或第四季度談到的改進是針對一些相當低的可比性進行的。因此，它顯示出同比有所改善，但就數量而言並沒有顯著的美元增長。因此，第四季不需要大量營運資金。

Great. And then my follow-on is on price. It doesn't feel like there's a lot of price pressure across cap goods right now. And clearly, your margin performance suggests you're not seeing much price either. But commercial aero is an area where we -- there are some concerns. I'm just curious if you are seeing some price concession requests or some give backs to your OEM customers in commercial aero?

偉大的。然後我的後續是價格。目前，上限商品的價格壓力並不大。顯然，您的利潤率表現表明您也沒有看到太多價格。但商業航空領域是我們存在一些擔憂的領域。我只是好奇您是否看到一些價格優惠請求或對商業航空 OEM 客戶的一些回饋？

Nigel, it's Lee. I would -- maybe I'll just couple that with commodity material inflation. We do see some modest material inflation across the channels. But our goal always has been, from a cost price standpoint, to be margin neutral. And we still expect that to happen this coming fiscal year.

奈傑爾，我是李。我會——也許我會將其與商品材料通膨聯繫起來。我們確實看到各個管道出現了一些溫和的物質通膨。但從成本價格的角度來看，我們的目標始終是保持利潤中立。我們仍然預計這將在下一個財年發生。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. .

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。 。

Great quarter, by the way. Just first question, I guess, on supply chains, a, both global and North America. A, have you seen any disruption, shipping stuff from Asia to North America and also Mexico to the U.S.? And have you made any adjustments to your supply chains post-COVID? Are you thinking about making structural adjustments?

順便說一句，很棒的季度。我想，第一個問題是關於全球和北美的供應鏈。答：從亞洲向北美以及從墨西哥向美國運輸貨物時，您是否看到任何中斷情況？新冠疫情過後，你們的供應鏈有沒有做出任何調整？是否考慮進行結構性調整？

Andrew, it's Tom. So I would take you back to, really, our strategy of what has been a long-term strategy in supply chain that we make, buy, sell local and local. It helps us a lot on this, and that we do not have a tremendous amount of cross continent type of activity. We've not seen any disruption that's been material of nature. The supply chain team has done a really great job. And part of our protocol is always we look at risk mitigation, and we look at the solvency of suppliers and their ability to deliver.

安德魯，是湯姆。所以我想帶大家回到我們在本地生產、購買和銷售的供應鏈長期策略。這對我們有很大幫助，而且我們沒有大量的跨大陸類型的活動。我們還沒有看到任何對大自然的破壞。供應鏈團隊做得非常好。我們的協議的一部分始終是我們著眼於風險緩解，我們著眼於供應商的償付能力及其交付能力。

We always look at that and make sure that things are in good shape, and we don't see any major things to worry about there. But this is an opportunity for us as our customers look at this, and they may have supply chains that are different than the way we're structured. And as that happens, and not that we've seen it of any material standpoint yet, that will provide a revenue opportunity for us as they move plans or relocate things. We have an opportunity since we have a global footprint to satisfy them as they move.

我們總是關注這一點並確保一切都處於良好狀態，並且我們認為那裡沒有任何值得擔心的重大問題。但這對我們來說是一個機會，因為我們的客戶正在關注這一點，他們的供應鏈可能與我們的結構方式不同。當這種情況發生時，我們還沒有從任何實質性的角度看到它，這將為我們提供一個收入機會，因為他們改變計劃或重新安置東西。我們有機會滿足他們的需求，因為我們的業務遍及全球。

Can -- I guess, a follow-up question on inventories in the channel and both distributors and sort of OEs. A, we really -- since the great financial crisis, we really haven't seen a big restocking cycle. Do you think we're going to get one after COVID? I know you said people have sort of destocked a little bit. But are we going to see you think anything material coming out of it?

我想，可以是關於通路、經銷商和原始設備製造商庫存的後續問題。答，自金融危機爆發以來，我們確實還沒有看到大規模的補貨週期。你認為新冠疫情之後我們會得到一份嗎？我知道你說過人們已經減少了一點庫存。但我們會看到你認為有什麼實質的結果嗎？

And the second thing, what can you tell us about sort of the bullwhip effect of your OE customers, how much this sort of distorts sales and what do you see in the channel?

第二件事，你能告訴我們關於你的原廠客戶的牛鞭效應嗎？這種扭曲銷售的程度有多大？你在通路中看到了什麼？

Andrew, I can start. If Lee has anything to add, he can add on it. I think what you see with both the OE -- a lot of your question, the answer will be the trajectory of any kind of recovery. At this point, based on what we're -- just gave you as guidance, we're projecting a modest recovery, not some sharp type of recovery. If it's sharper, then I do think you'll see some restocking type of opportunities. But based on what we're projecting, I think you're going to see just normal kind of end pull-through type of stocking.

安德魯，我可以開始了。如果李先生有什麼補充的話，他可以補充。我認為你在 OE 中看到的很多問題，答案將是任何類型的復甦的軌跡。目前，根據我們剛剛向您提供的指導，我們預計將出現溫和復甦，而不是某種急劇復甦。如果它更銳利，那麼我確實認為您會看到一些補貨類型的機會。但根據我們的預測，我認為您將看到普通的末端拉穿式長襪。

So we saw a pretty major destocking in Q4. We think some of that will continue at a lower rate in both OE and distribution in the first half. But I think the restocking opportunity, we're not projecting or counting on any of that right now. But if the trajectory or the recovery was to be a lot more sharp, then obviously, I think people would be looking at that as something they need to do.

因此，我們在第四季度看到了相當大的去庫存。我們認為，上半年原廠設備和分銷中的一些情況將繼續以較低的速度進行。但我認為我們現在沒有預測或指望補貨機會。但如果軌跡或復甦更加迅速，那麼顯然，我認為人們會認為這是他們需要做的事情。

Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I'm trying to better understand the margin guide for the year. Now you're looking at the guidance with amortization excluded. So you're guiding 18.9% goes down to 18.1%, which seems, let's say, reasonable. But given amortization this year, is it going to be a lot more helpful to the margins than last year? Last year, it added 210 bps. Given your sales guide, it adds 260. So when you strip that away and we have more history, looking at before this change of how you're reporting, you're implying the margins before amortization being pulled out at %15.5, that's on the $12.5 billion sales base. The last time you had margins that low, revenues were $1 billion or $0.5 billion less than what you're guiding. And just given the improvement the company has been showing on margin, I'm just making sure, is that what we're trying to suggest that the margins, the old way you used to report it before you pulled out amortization, the margins are going to be down at 15.5%? That just seems $0.5 billion or $1 billion less than some years back when you're doing 15.8% or 14.8%. I'm just trying to understand, why would the margins be that low? I mean aerospace mix issue a little bit. But can you just help us level set why it would be lower than even years ago when revenues were even lower?

我試圖更好地理解今年的保證金指南。現在您正在查看不包括攤銷的指導。所以你指導 18.9% 下降到 18.1%，這似乎是合理的。但考慮到今年的攤銷，對利潤率的幫助是否會比去年大得多？去年，它增加了 210 個基點。根據你的銷售指南，它增加了 260。因此，當你去掉它並且我們有更多歷史記錄時，看看你的報告方式發生變化之前，你暗示攤銷前的利潤率為 15.5%，這就是125 億美元的銷售基礎。上次您的利潤率如此之低時，收入比您的指導值少了 10 億美元或 5 億美元。考慮到公司在利潤率方面所表現出的改善，我只是想確定一下，我們試圖建議的利潤率，在提取攤銷前你用來報告的舊方式，利潤率是會下降15.5%嗎？與幾年前 15.8% 或 14.8% 相比，這似乎少了 5 億美元或 10 億美元。我只是想了解一下，為什麼利潤會那麼低？我的意思是航空航天混合問題。但你能否幫助我們確定為什麼它會比幾年前收入更低的時候還要低？

David, it's Tom. I'll start. I'll let Cathy add on. First of all, it's a little bit difficult. You do have to back out acquisitions because acquisitions in the first quarter do throw out the MROS a little bit. So if you -- and we can share this with you more privately in a one-on-one you'll have with Robin and Jeff. With the decrementals, without acquisitions, and we kept them in when they lapped, are in that 25% to 30% range. For a guidance and in uncertain times, that is a really good guide on MROS. So the MROS has come out to be appropriately positioned.

大衛，是湯姆。我開始吧。我會讓凱西補充一下。首先，這有點困難。你確實必須取消收購，因為第一季的收購確實會稍微影響 MROS。因此，如果您——我們可以透過一對一的方式更私密地與您分享這一點，您將與羅賓和傑夫進行交流。有了減量，沒有收購，我們在它們重疊時將它們保留在 25% 到 30% 的範圍內。對於不確定時期的指導而言，這是一本非常好的 MROS 指南。因此，MROS 已經得到了適當的定位。

When you look at the respective segments, so North America at 18.9% versus 93. Again, this is on making apples-to-apples amortization, put back in both years. We had 11% volume drop, and we have a mobile mix headwind. So that seems -- dropping 40 bps seems reasonable. International, we've got lower volume, and so that's dropping 30 bps, 17.1% versus 17.4%. And aerospace drops the most, which is what helped a lot here in FY '20, from 20.5% to 17.9%. And the big difference there is the international military MRO that we had, which really gave us a strong fourth quarter. And then they had the most severe volume drop for the full year at 20% organically. So I think these are really good numbers, MROSs for an August guide are best-in-class as far as what we would guide to. I can tell you, we've never ever guided to a 25%, 30% MROS. We always typically guided higher to that 30% range. So we are reflecting how the business has gotten better, but we're also forecasting into a very uncertain period of time. Hence, why we didn't go down to the teens because that's a difficult thing to repeat.

當你看一下各自的細分市場時，北美地區的比例為 18.9%，而北美地區的比例為 93%。同樣，這是基於逐年攤銷，在兩年內進行攤銷。我們的銷量下降了 11%，而且行動混音也遇到了阻力。因此，下降 40 個基點似乎是合理的。國際方面，成交量下降了 30 個基點，分別為 17.1% 和 17.4%。航空航太業下降幅度最大，對 20 財年有很大幫助，從 20.5% 下降到 17.9%。最大的區別是我們擁有的國際軍事 MRO，這確實為我們帶來了強勁的第四季度業績。然後他們的全年銷量自然下降了 20%，是最嚴重的。所以我認為這些數字非常好，就我們所指導的內容而言，八月指南的 MROS 是同類中最好的。我可以告訴你，我們從未指導過 25%、30% MROS。我們通常指導的價格始終高於 30% 的範圍。因此，我們正在反思業務如何變得更好，但我們也預測到一個非常不確定的時期。因此，為什麼我們沒有深入青少年，因為這是一件很難重複的事情。

Yes. I think, Tom, when you strip out the change and you look at a pre adding back amortization, what really sticks out is international, which just put up margins year-over-year through the amortization add back. And last year, in total, did 15.9% and you're guiding at around 14.8% with a decremental of around 40%. And I'm just trying to understand, is there's something unique going on internationally. Pre adding back more amortization -- something going on in international with the mix? Is there something I'm missing?

是的。湯姆，我認為，當你剔除變化並查看預加回攤銷時，真正突出的是國際業務，它通過攤銷加回逐年提高了利潤率。去年，總體而言，成長了 15.9%，而您的指導值為 14.8% 左右，下降了 40% 左右。我只是想了解國際上是否正在發生一些獨特的事情。預加更多的攤銷－國際上發生了什麼事？我有什麼遺漏的嗎？

Yes. Part of it -- for me, international, there's is a lot less amortization that's getting allocated. So you got to look at both years with amortization in, and that's why I was articulating to you. FY '20 with amortization all-in is 17.4%. It's only dropping to 17.1%. So it is not much of a drop at all for international, and it matches what you would expect with the kind of volume drop. So I think part of the issue is...

是的。其中一部分——對我來說，國際上分配的攤銷要少得多。所以你必須看看這兩年的攤銷，這就是我向你闡述的原因。 20 財年攤銷總額為 17.4%。僅下降至 17.1%。因此，對於國際市場而言，下降幅度並不大，並且符合您對交易量下降的預期。所以我認為問題的一部分是...

We'll talk offline about the add-backs for -- by section.

我們將離線討論逐節的回加。

Yes. You're throwing in international amortization as if it has the bulk of the amortization. The bulk of the amortization would reside in North America.

是的。您將國際攤銷投入其中，就好像它擁有大部分攤銷一樣。大部分攤銷將位於北美。

Yes, I'm just taking the quarter you just reported and times-ing it by 4, essentially keeping it as a run rate by quarter. So maybe Robin or Cathy offline, we can get the exact add back by segment for '21 would be great.

是的，我只是將您剛剛報告的季度乘以 4，基本上將其保留為季度運行率。因此，也許 Robin 或 Cathy 離線，我們可以按分段獲取 21 年的準確添加信息，那就太好了。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nathan Jones 和 Stifel 的對話。

I've got one that's probably for Lee. Can you guys talk about what kind of friction you're seeing in your own operations from safety protocols that you've had to put in as part of your processes, whether that's changing how the U-shaped cells are laid out or anything like that or additional costs that you've incurred and if that's meaningful to your results? And then are there plans for you to be able to improve those processes and eliminate some or all of those frictions as we go forward?

我有一個可能是給李的。你們能否談談您在自己的營運中從必須納入流程一部分的安全協議中看到了什麼樣的摩擦，無論是改變 U 形單元的佈局方式還是類似的事情或您產生的額外成本，這對您的結果是否有意義？那麼，在我們前進的過程中，您是否有計劃能夠改進這些流程並消除部分或全部摩擦？

Nate, that's a great question. Thank you. First off, because I know there's a lot of team members listening, I can't say enough about what our worldwide team has done in putting in these safety protocols. We've been audited by a lot of outside governments, and they always applaud what we're doing internally to separate things out and keep our workers safe. But -- yes, there's a cost. It's not material to put things up. But it's remarkable what our teams continue to do in terms of reconfiguring ourselves, still getting the same productivity flow but separating our workers from each other, giving them the space, giving them the, in many cases, plexiglass separations and just organizing a production system that is consistent with our lean production system, it gives us excellent flow and keeps everybody safe. So nothing meaningful to talk about, doing a great job and the results, I think, prove it out.

內特，這是一個很好的問題。謝謝。首先，因為我知道有很多團隊成員在傾聽，所以對於我們的全球團隊在製定這些安全協議方面所做的工作，我無法說太多。我們接受過許多外部政府的審計，他們總是對我們內部為隔離事物並確保員工安全所做的工作表示讚賞。但是——是的，這是有代價的。把東西放上去並不重要。但值得注意的是，我們的團隊在重新配置方面繼續做的事情，仍然獲得相同的生產力流程，但將我們的工人彼此分開，給他們空間，在許多情況下給他們有機玻璃分隔，並只是組織一個生產系統這與我們的精實生產系統是一致的，它為我們提供了良好的流程並確保每個人的安全。所以沒有什麼值得談論的，我認為做得很好，結果證明了這一點。

Fair enough. Maybe on capital allocation, Tom, we're getting down to net debt in the low 3, probably by this time next year, it's going to be in the 2.5, maybe a little bit better than that even. Depending on how the recovery goes. When -- how are you guys thinking about when to reenter the M&A market in a meaningful fashion, what kind of leverage metrics do you need to get down to before you look at that? And how is the cultivation of the pipeline going in the meantime?

很公平。湯姆，也許在資本配置方面，我們的淨債務將降至 3 左右，可能到明年這個時候，將達到 2.5 左右，甚至可能比這更好一點。取決於恢復情況。你們如何考慮何時以有意義的方式重新進入併購市場？在考慮這個問題之前，您需要考慮什麼樣的槓桿指標？同時，管道的培育進展如何？

Nathan, I'm going to start with that, and then I'll turn it over to Tom. I'd like to recalibrate you a little bit. Keep in mind that EBITDA is dropping. So the denominator gets a little bit more difficult. I think 2.5x next year is a pretty aggressive projection and not what we're anticipating we'll be able to do. So Tom, you want to comment?

內森，我將從這個開始，然後將其交給湯姆。我想稍微重新調整一下你。請記住，EBITDA 正在下降。所以分母變得有點困難。我認為明年 2.5 倍是一個相當激進的預測，而不是我們預期能夠做到的。湯姆，你想發表評論嗎？

But on that -- yes. So we are probably going to be still north of 3 when we finish. But obviously, we're going to do what we possibly can. You saw the pace of debt reduction we did this last fiscal year. But on acquisitions, we continue to always build those relationships and look at those strategic targets and have those discussions. But we're not going to enter into those until we get the M&A -- get the leverage down into those low 2s and we're going to work very hard. As soon as we can get there, the better we'll do.

但在這一點上——是的。因此，當我們完成時，我們可能仍處於 3 之上。但顯然，我們將盡我們所能。您看到了我們在上一財年削減債務的速度。但在收購方面，我們將繼續建立這些關係，關注這些策略目標並進行討論。但在我們完成併購之前，我們不會進入這些領域——將槓桿率降至 2 左右，我們將非常努力地工作。一旦我們能夠到達那裡，我們就會做得更好。

Our next question comes from the line of John Inch with Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·英奇和戈登·哈斯克特的台詞。

Cathy, could you comment a little bit on the first quarter expectations for core growth? And obviously, the genesis of my question is, you've got North American orders and international orders much worse than the core growth you just put up and then an outlook that shows a substantial top line rebound, right, in all of fiscal '21. So I'm assuming we're heading to a pretty tough next quarter or 2. Is there anything you could say about that?

Cathy，您能否評論一下第一季核心成長的預期？顯然，我的問題的根源是，你的北美訂單和國際訂單比你剛剛提出的核心增長差得多，然後前景顯示在整個 21 財年中，收入大幅反彈，對吧？ 。所以我假設我們將在下一季或第二季面臨相當困難的局面。對此您有什麼要說的嗎？

John, it's Tom. So similar to what I mentioned when I went through the first half, the first half is going to be minus 19% for the total company and North America is going to get a little better, minus 25% last quarter to minus 21% and international minus 15% and minus 12%. So we see that gradually improvement. It'll be a little bit in Q1 and a little bit more in Q2. The only thing that will weaken will be Aerospace as Aerospace is longer cycle, we'll be finding bottom. Probably most likely kind of in the middle of the year is when Aerospace finds the bottom.

約翰，是湯姆。與我在上半年時提到的類似，上半年整個公司的成長率將為負 19%，北美的情況會好一點，上季度為負 25%，國際為負 21%。負15%和負12 %。所以我們看到這種情況逐漸改善。第一季會增加一點，第二季會增加一點。唯一會減弱的是航空航天，因為航空航天的周期較長，我們將找到底部。航空航太產業最有可能在年中觸底。

And do you expect these businesses to go turn positive by the end of fiscal '21 just as part of your guide or still hovering negative?

您是否預計這些業務將在 21 財年結束時轉為正數（正如您的指南的一部分），還是仍徘徊在負值？

Yes. No, yes. We got -- in Q4, it'll be probably plus high single digits on the industrial portion. And Aerospace still trying to get back to even.

是的。不，是的。我們得到 - 在第四季度，工業部分可能會增加高個位數。航空航天仍在努力恢復平衡。

Got it. Yes. Apologies if you went over this before, there are just a lot of moving parts. I wanted to ask you then, as a follow-up, the structural actions. I guess I was under a bit of an impression that the company was not looking to take structural actions based on all of the work that you've done before. So Tom, I'm wondering kind of what perhaps -- maybe I got that wrong. But was there something that did trigger your thought process to go ahead and take structural actions like you think the outlook merited as the quarter proceeded? And can you tell us anything about sort of how you're allocating these actions across, say, Aerospace versus international versus the domestic ops?

知道了。是的。如果你之前看過這個，我很抱歉，只有很多移動部件。作為後續行動，我想問你結構性行動。我想我的印像是，該公司並不打算根據您之前所做的所有工作採取結構性行動。湯姆，我想知道也許──也許我錯了。但是，是否有什麼事情確實觸發了您的思維過程，並採取了結構性行動，就像您認為隨著本季度的進展前景值得期待的那樣？您能否告訴我們您如何在航空航太、國際和國內行動之間分配這些行動？

Yes. I'll give you kind of more the strategic piece. I can let Cathy comment as far as within the segments. But when looked at it, John, we looked at Aerospace, oil and gas, going to be down for long. And so we needed to take structural actions there. And we also just looked at the trajectory here and the opportunity between all the things we've been doing for even more continuous improvement regarding the structure of the company. So that's why we're looking at permanent.

是的。我會給你更多的戰略部分。我可以讓凱西在片段內發表評論。但約翰，當我們審視航空航太、石油和天然氣產業時，它們將長期下跌。因此我們需要在那裡採取結構性行動。我們也只是研究了這裡的軌跡以及我們一直在做的所有事情之間的機會，以便對公司結構進行更持續的改進。這就是我們考慮永久的原因。

If this was to bounce back sharply already, would not be doing it, but based on the fact that this is going to be a little longer trajectory, and we have some certain end markets that are down for probably several years. We wanted to take the actions now to get in the right position. And we really felt that way as we're going through it at the end of Q4, and that's why we took those actions. So the actions we took in Q4 are really helping us springboard into FY '21 on our savings. I don't know if Cathy wants to add on as far as how it's going to split between the segments or not.

如果這已經大幅反彈，我們就不會這樣做，但基於這樣一個事實，這將是一個更長的軌跡，而且我們有一些特定的終端市場可能會下降幾年。我們希望現在就採取行動，以找到正確的位置。當我們在第四季末經歷這個過程時，我們確實有這種感覺，這就是我們採取這些行動的原因。因此，我們在第四季度採取的行動確實有助於我們在儲蓄方面進入 21 財年。我不知道凱西是否想補充如何在各個部分之間進行劃分。

Yes. For FY '21, John, the split will be -- about half of the costs will be through the international operations. And then the remaining 50% will be fairly evenly split between Aerospace and North America. And keep in mind that these actions are more workforce-related than they are asset-related.

是的。約翰，對於 21 財年，大約一半的成本將來自國際業務。然後剩下的 50% 將由航空航天和北美平均分配。請記住，這些行動與勞動力有關，而不是與資產相關。

I guess I would just add on, John, one thing that we did by structuring about a 50-50 blend permanent discretionary is it gives us the flexibility to move depending on what happens on demand.

約翰，我想我想補充一點，我們透過建立 50-50 混合永久自由裁量權所做的一件事是，它使我們能夠根據需求情況靈活地採取行動。

I'm sorry, I don't understand. The permanent discretionary gives you the flexibility to what?

抱歉，我不明白。永久酌情權為您帶來什麼彈性？

To move based on demand. As an example, if we just made all permanent action, you probably have a little less flexibility. By doing a mixture of both, we get a little more flexibility. And we're not taking out assets, which gives you even more flexibility. You can obviously add people back in.

根據需求移動。舉個例子，如果我們只進行所有永久性操作，那麼您的靈活性可能會稍差一些。透過混合使用兩者，我們可以獲得更多的靈活性。而且我們不會取出資產，這為您提供了更大的靈活性。顯然，您可以重新新增人員。

In respect of everyone's day, we're going to take one more question and then let you go.

考慮到大家的節日，我們將再回答一個問題，然後讓您離開。

Our last question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的安迪凱西。

I guess it dovetails with John's last question on the concept of workforce versus assets within the restructuring. Can you comment on, as other companies may have done similar things, whether your experience with this pandemic has accelerated stuff you've already had in the pipeline? And what sort of things might those be?

我想這與約翰最後一個關於重組中勞動力與資產概念的問題相吻合。正如其他公司可能也做過類似的事情一樣，您能否評論一下您在這場大流行中的經歷是否加速了您已經在籌備中的事情？那些可能是什麼類型的東西？

Andy, it's Tom. So we always look at how to continuously get better as far as our people and how we deploy them and that's a combination of lean and kaizen and simplification, all those type of things. So I would say we always have a pipeline of those types of ideas, the groups and the divisions do. And when you run into where volume is down, if this volume is going to be down for longer, some of those things get accelerated. Clearly, when we look at the most distressed end markets, that is causing us to take more aggressive action in there because we don't expect them to come back aerospace as an example anytime soon. But we always look at -- to get better, on the structure of the company. And I would say that this is that plus our response to the end markets that are being the most distressed.

安迪，是湯姆。因此，我們總是專注於如何不斷提高我們的員工以及我們如何部署他們，這是精益、改善和簡化的結合，所有這些類型的事情。所以我想說，我們總是有這些類型的想法的管道，團體和部門都有。當你遇到成交量下降的情況時，如果成交量下降的時間更長，那麼其中一些事情就會加速。顯然，當我們關注最陷入困境的終端市場時，這導致我們在那裡採取更積極的行動，因為我們預計它們不會很快回歸航空航太領域。但我們總是關注公司的結構，以求變得更好。我想說的是，這就是我們對最困難的終端市場的反應。

Okay. And then the last question, there have been quite a few questions around this. But if I take the midpoint of the first half, second half framework that Cathy put out the decremental margins with all the adjustments are slightly above 30% in the first half and then kind of high 20s in the second half. Is that difference -- I know I'm splitting hairs a little bit, but is that difference really mix related and the impact of acquisitions? Or is there something else?

好的。然後是最後一個問題，圍繞這個問題已經有很多問題了。但如果我採用上半場的中點，那麼凱西在下半場提出的所有調整後的遞減利潤框架在上半場略高於 30%，然後在下半場達到 20% 的高水平。這是區別嗎——我知道我有點吹毛求疵，但這種區別真的與混合和收購的影響有關嗎？或是還有別的什麼嗎？

No. Andy, you summarized it because when you take out the acquisitions, and only have them when they've lapped so it's apples-to-apples, the decrementals are in the 25% to 30% range is what I've been saying. So that's pretty good because, to your point, mix is not going to help us next year as well.

不。安迪，你總結了這一點，因為當你取出收購時，只有在收購完成後才進行收購，所以這是同類的，我一直在說，減量在 25% 到 30% 的範圍內。所以這非常好，因為就你而言，混合明年也不會幫助我們。

So this concludes our Q&A and our earnings call. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. Robin and Jeff will be available to take your call should you have further questions. We appreciate your time this morning. Enjoy the rest of your day.

我們的問答和財報電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家今天加入我們。如果您還有其他問題，羅賓和傑夫將接聽您的電話。我們非常感謝您今天早上的寶貴時間。享受你一天剩下的時間。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。