派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾公司 2020 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。（操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference to your speaker today, Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, Madam.

我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人，財務長 Cathy Suever。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, Joelle. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Parker Hannifin's First Quarter Fiscal Year '20 Earnings Release Teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks.

謝謝你，喬爾。大家，早安。歡迎參加 Parker Hannifin '20 財年第一季財報發布電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯 (Tom Williams)；李‧班克斯 (Lee Banks) 總裁兼營運長。

Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for 1 year following today's call.

今天的簡報幻燈片以及音訊網路廣播重播將在今天的電話會議後一年內透過公司的投資者資訊網站 phstock.com 提供。

On Slide #2, you'll find the company's safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's materials and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com.

在投影片#2 上，您會發現該公司的安全港揭露聲明，涉及前瞻性聲明以及非公認會計準則財務指標。今天早上的資料中包含了所有非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表，並且也發佈在 Parker 的網站 phstock.com 上。

Today's agenda appears on Slide #3. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing highlights from the first quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's first quarter performance together with the revised guidance for the full year fiscal 2020. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session.

今天的議程出現在投影片 #3 上。首先，我們的董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯將介紹第一季的亮點。根據 Tom 的評論，我將回顧公司第一季的業績以及修訂後的 2020 財年全年指引。然後，湯姆將提供一些總結意見，我們將開始問答環節。

Please refer now to Slide #4 and Tom will get us started.

現在請參閱幻燈片#4，湯姆將帶我們開始。

Thank you, Cathy, and good morning, everybody, and welcome to the call. We appreciate your interest in Parker.

謝謝你，凱西，大家早安，歡迎來電。我們感謝您對帕克的興趣。

So let me start with the first quarter highlights, and I'm going to start like I normally do on safety. We had a 25% reduction in recordable safety incidents year-over-year, which is a great start to the year. When you look at it from a safety incident rate -- so for those that aren't familiar with this, this is the number of safety incidents per 100 people. We came in at 0.46, which is a top quartile number. Top quartile happens to be 0.5. So this is the first time in the history of our company that we came in, in the top quartile from an incident rate. So we're very proud of that.

讓我從第一節的亮點開始，我將像往常一樣在安全方面開始。我們的可記錄安全事故年減了 25%，這是今年的一個好開始。當你從安全事故率來看時——對於那些不熟悉這一點的人來說，這是每 100 人的安全事故數。我們的得分為 0.46，屬於前四分位數。最高四分位數剛好是 0.5。因此，這是我們公司歷史上第一次從事故發生率進入前四分之一。所以我們對此感到非常自豪。

Safety for us is a core value and 0 accidents is not an aspirational goal. It's really an expectation that we're going to operate the business and lead the business in such a way that we're going to drive a 0 accident culture. And if you've seen, there's a very strong linkage between safety and business performance. And you can see that if you'd look at our numbers over the last several years and plotted safety and our financial improvement, you'll see that it went hand-in-hand.

安全對我們來說是一個核心價值，零事故並不是一個理想的目標。我們確實希望以一種推動零事故文化的方式來經營和領導業務。如果您已經看到，安全與業務績效之間存在非常緊密的聯繫。您會發現，如果您查看我們過去幾年的數據並繪製安全和財務改善的圖，您會發現它們是齊頭並進的。

So switching to financial results. Q1 was a strong quarter on margins and on cash against a challenging macro environment on sales. Sales declined 4%. And that composition was a minus 3% organic, minus 1.5% on currency and a plus 0.5% on acquisitions. Total segment operating margin remained level at 17.0% reported. Adjusted segment operating margins increased 10 basis points to 17.3%. On a reported basis, EBITDA margin increased 70 basis points to 18.4% and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 110 basis points and reached 19.1%. So really, when you look at it, operating margin or EBITDA margin, really excellent performance at this part of the cycle. EPS reported was $2.60 and on adjusted basis was $2.76.

因此轉向財務業績。在充滿挑戰的宏觀銷售環境下，第一季的利潤率和現金表現強勁。銷售額下降 4%。此構成為有機負3%，貨幣負1.5%，收購正0.5%。據報告，分部總營業利潤率維持在 17.0% 的水平。調整後分部營業利益率成長 10 個基點，達到 17.3%。根據報告，EBITDA 利潤率成長 70 個基點，達到 18.4%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率成長 110 個基點，達到 19.1%。所以，實際上，當你看營業利潤率或 EBITDA 利潤率時，在周期的這一部分確實表現出色。報告每股收益為 2.60 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.76 美元。

We had a very strong quarter on cash flow. Cash flow from operations came in at 13.5% of sales. We had a record as far as cash flow from operations in terms of dollars at $449 million. And free cash flow was 12.0%. And when you look at free cash flow conversion, that was 118%, so really, really strong quarter on cash.

我們的季度現金流非常強勁。營運現金流佔銷售額的 13.5%。我們的營運現金流（以美元計算）創下了 4.49 億美元的記錄。自由現金流為12.0%。當你觀察自由現金流轉換時，你會發現這是 118%，所以這個季度的現金非常非常強勁。

We had a number of exciting announcements in the quarter. We launched The Win Strategy 3.0. So that's the third revision of The Win Strategy. This follows the second revision we did in 2015 and we launched a new purpose statement for the company. And we closed the LORD and Exotic acquisitions. So we've been busy in the quarter. And we're really excited to welcome the LORD and Exotic team members to the Parker team. The joint integration teams have been working hard in preparation for the closings and they're hitting the ground running as we speak.

本季我們發布了許多令人興奮的公告。我們推出了致勝策略3.0。這是《制勝策略》的第三次修訂。這是我們在 2015 年進行的第二次修訂之後推出的公司新宗旨聲明。我們關閉了 Lord 和 Exotic 的收購。所以我們這個季度一直很忙。我們非常高興地歡迎 Lord 和 Exotic 團隊成員加入 Parker 團隊。聯合整合團隊一直在努力為關閉做準備，就在我們說話的時候，他們正在開始工作。

As you heard me talk about, the acquisitions are transformational to Parker's portfolio, really strengthening engineered materials and aerospace with high-growth, high-margin businesses that will definitely be more resilient over the business cycle. Our global Parker teams are very energized by all these announcements between The Win Strategy, purpose and these acquisitions so that we're excited about the future.

正如您聽到我所說的那樣，這些收購對帕克的投資組合來說是一場變革，真正加強了工程材料和航空航太領域的高成長、高利潤業務，這些業務在商業週期中肯定會更具彈性。我們的全球帕克團隊對獲勝策略、目標和這些收購之間的所有這些公告感到非常興奮，因此我們對未來感到興奮。

Now switching to the outlook. We revised guidance for FY '20. We've seen a market shift within the last 90 days. It's reflected in weakened order entry, primarily driven from macro conditions and trade uncertainties. So when you look at total sales for Parker in FY '20, they're expected to be flat year-over-year at the midpoint with guidance now -- these are all midpoint numbers -- at minus 6% organic, minus 1% for currency and plus 7% on acquisitions. Segment operating margin guidance is now at 15.2% as reported at the midpoint and the adjusted midpoint is now 16.3%.

現在切換到前景。我們修訂了 20 財年的指導。我們在過去 90 天內看到了市場的轉變。這反映在訂單輸入減弱，這主要是由宏觀條件和貿易不確定性所驅動的。因此，當您查看 Parker 20 財年的總銷售額時，預計與去年同期持平，目前的指引是 - 這些都是中點數字 - 有機增長率為 -6%， -1%貨幣加收7% 的收購費用。以中點報告，分部營業利潤率指引目前為 15.2%，調整後的中點為 16.3%。

I would just call your attention, there's 2 important impacts on there when you look at it from a partial year is the amortization of the 2 deals. From a partial year standpoint for FY '20, that impacts us by 70 basis points. When you look at it on a full 12 months, there's 100 basis points of deal amortization as a headwind on margins.

我想提請您注意，當您從部分年份來看時，有兩個重要影響是兩筆交易的攤銷。從 20 財年部分年度的角度來看，這對我們產生了 70 個基點的影響。當你觀察整整 12 個月時，你會發現 100 個基點的交易攤銷對利潤率構成了阻力。

Business realignment expenses are expected to increase to $40 million. This is reflective of the current macro conditions. This was $20 million in the prior guide. And of course, our guidance now includes LORD and Exotic Metals Forming for the balance of the year. And we'll go through discussing markets and the guidance assumptions in more detail during the Q&A.

業務調整費用預計將增加至 4,000 萬美元。這反映了當前的宏觀狀況。在之前的指南中，這是 2000 萬美元。當然，我們的指導現在包括今年剩餘時間的洛德和異國金屬成型。我們將在問答期間更詳細地討論市場和指導假設。

So let's switch to cash flow and margin resilience. So hopefully, you saw on the cash flow numbers in my comments just a moment ago, cash flow was very strong, record numbers. And then when you look at the operating and EBITDA margin performance, and I'm going to compare it to 2015 and '16, so the last downturn we experienced. And we'll look at this legacy Parker without acquisitions. That allows us to do an apples-to-apples comparison.

因此，讓我們轉向現金流和利潤彈性。所以希望您剛才在我的評論中看到了現金流量數字，現金流量非常強勁，創紀錄的數字。然後，當你查看營運和 EBITDA 利潤率表現時，我會將其與 2015 年和 16 年（我們上次經歷的低迷時期）進行比較。我們將看看這個沒有收購的傳統帕克。這使我們能夠進行同類比較。

So FY '16, which would have been the worst year in that downturn, on an adjusted operating margin was 14.8%. And then FY '20 guidance is 16.6% at the midpoint. So when you look at that delta, that's an improvement of 180 basis points. On adjusted EBITDA, in FY '16 it was 14.7%. Our current guide at the midpoint is 18.2%. So that's a 350 basis point improvement. So clearly, raising the floor on margins when you compare the '15, '16 downturn to what we're experiencing now.

因此，16 財年（這將是經濟低迷時期最糟糕的一年）調整後的營業利潤率為 14.8%。20 財年指導值為中點 16.6%。因此，當您查看該增量時，會發現改善了 180 個基點。2016 財政年度調整後 EBITDA 為 14.7%。我們目前的指導中位數是 18.2%。所以這是 350 個基點的改進。很明顯，當你將 15 年、16 年的經濟低迷與我們現在所經歷的情況進行比較時，利潤率的下限就會提高。

We fully anticipate to do double-digit cash flow from operations for the full fiscal year, like we've been doing for the last 18 years. And really, this performance is driven by a combination of factors. The new Win Strategy which we introduced in 2015 is propelling our performance. All the previous restructuring activities we've done which has positioned us to be a more agile and lean operating company.

我們完全預計整個財年的營運現金流將達到兩位數，就像我們過去 18 年所做的那樣。事實上，這種表現是由多種因素共同驅動的。我們在 2015 年推出的新制勝策略正在推動我們的業績。我們之前進行的所有重組活動都使我們成為一家更敏捷和精實營運的公司。

So let's move to Slide 5 and talk about the future. We're very positive about the future. And I think we are absolutely poised to generate nice earnings growth after we clear these near-term macro conditions. A couple of things influencing our confidence on the earnings potential. The Win Strategy 3.0 and the purpose statement represents some important changes for the company, plus we've added 2 great businesses via these acquisitions.

那麼讓我們轉到投影片 5 來討論未來。我們對未來非常樂觀。我認為，在我們清除這些近期宏觀條件後，我們絕對準備好實現良好的獲利成長。有幾件事影響了我們對獲利潛力的信心。獲勝策略 3.0 和目的聲明代表了公司的一些重要變化，此外，我們還透過這些收購增加了 2 項出色的業務。

And actually, in my view, the timing of these acquisitions couldn't be any better during the soft part of the cycle. There's clear advantage here. We have the capacity to digest these much easier than we were digesting CLARCOR as we were trying to ramp up the base business as well as digest CLARCOR. And when you look at the timing, when you look at the integration teams hitting their stride, it's about the same time the markets will start to turn for us, approximately 9 months. And both of those factors will drive earnings growth as we look into the future.

事實上，在我看來，這些收購的時機在經濟週期的疲軟階段再好不過了。這裡有明顯的優勢。我們有能力消化這些，比消化 CLARCOR 容易得多，因為我們試圖擴大基礎業務並消化 CLARCOR。當你看看時間安排時，當你看到整合團隊大步前進時，市場將開始為我們轉變的時間大約是 9 個月。當我們展望未來時，這兩個因素都將推動獲利成長。

We're going to be hosting an Investor Day, March 12, 2020, in New York City. And during that Investor Day, we're going to showcase The Win Strategy 3.0 and the purpose statement, so give you a lot more color on the key strategic changes for the future. We're going to highlight all 6 operating groups. In the past, we've highlighted one group. And last time, we highlighted 3 groups. For the first time ever, we're going to give you insights to all 6 groups. You'll see the entire company. And we'll go through the 3 last acquisitions: CLARCOR, LORD and Exotic.

我們將於 2020 年 3 月 12 日在紐約市舉辦投資者日活動。在投資者日期間，我們將展示獲勝策略 3.0 和目的聲明，以便讓您對未來的關鍵策略變化有更多的了解。我們將重點介紹所有 6 個營運組。過去，我們強調了一組。上次，我們重點介紹了 3 組。我們將有史以來第一次為您提供有關所有 6 個組的見解。你會看到整個公司。我們將介紹最後 3 項收購：CLARCOR、LORD 和 Exotic。

So just a quick reminder which is on this page that you see the winning format for Parker, our competitive differentiators. The Win Strategy, now 3.0, the third revision of that, which is our business system. You couple that with our decentralized divisional structure. In my view, that's the best of both worlds. You got a centrally led business system that's deployed locally with that closeness to the P&L. The breadth of our portfolio of technologies is very interconnected, strong intellectual property, long product life cycles, very balanced between OEM and aftermarket with the best distribution channel in the motion and control space. Low CapEx requirements to actually generate growth and productivity. And all this ends up culminating in being able to generate a lot of cash and being able to deploy it on the best behalf we can for our shareholders.

因此，在此頁面上快速提醒您，您會看到 Parker 的獲勝格式，這是我們的競爭優勢。獲勝策略，現在是3.0，第三次修訂，這是我們的業務系統。您可以將其與我們分散的部門結構結合。在我看來，這是兩全其美的。您擁有一個集中領導的業務系統，該系統在本地部署，並且與損益表非常接近。我們的技術組合非常廣泛，相互關聯性強，智慧財產權強，產品生命週期長，原始設備製造商和售後市場之間非常平衡，在運動和控制領域擁有最佳的分銷管道。實際產生成長和生產力的資本支出要求低。所有這一切最終最終導致我們能夠產生大量現金，並能夠為我們的股東提供最好的利益。

So we have a lot of confidence on our ability to achieve the FY '23 financial targets. I just want to thank all the global teams listening in for their hard work, their continued and dedicated effort.

因此，我們對實現 23 財年財務目標的能力充滿信心。我只想感謝所有聆聽的全球團隊的辛勤工作、持續奉獻的努力。

And I'll hand it back to Cathy for more details on the quarter and the guidance.

我會將其交還給凱茜，以獲取有關本季度和指導的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

I'd like you to now refer to Slide #6. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $2.76 compared to $2.84 for the same quarter a year ago. Adjustments from the fiscal year '20 as reported results totaled $0.16, including before tax amounts of business realignment charges of $0.04, acquisition costs to achieve of $0.04 and acquisition transaction-related expenses of $0.14, offset by the tax effect of these adjustments of $0.06. Prior year first quarter earnings per share had been adjusted by $0.05. The details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures.

我希望您現在參考投影片 #6。這張投影片展示了第一季報告和調整後的每股盈餘。本季調整後每股收益為 2.76 美元，去年同期為 2.84 美元。報告結果對 20 財年的調整總計 0.16 美元，包括稅前業務調整費用 0.04 美元、實現收購成本 0.04 美元以及收購交易相關費用 0.14 美元，被這些調整的稅收影響 0.06 美元所抵消。去年第一季每股收益調整了 0.05 美元。其詳細資訊包含在非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表中。

On Slide 7, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $2.84 for the first quarter of fiscal '19 to $2.76 for the first quarter of this year. We benefited $0.02 per share in operating income from Exotic Metals Forming Company since closing on that acquisition September 16. For Legacy Parker, a $166 million decline in sales contributed to a $0.15 reduction in operating income. The teams did a great job of controlling costs with lower volume by sustaining a 15% decremental margin for the quarter.

在投影片 7 上，您會發現調整後每股盈餘從 19 財年第一季的 2.84 美元增至今年第一季的 2.76 美元的重要組成部分。自 9 月 16 日收購結束以來，我們從 Exotic Metals Forming Company 獲得了每股 0.02 美元的營業收入。對於 Legacy Parker，銷售額下降 1.66 億美元導致營業收入減少 0.15 美元。該團隊在控製成本方面做得很好，本季利潤率保持了 15% 的遞減幅度，但銷量較低。

Incremental interest expense on the debt borrowed for the 2 acquisitions resulted in a $0.15 decline in the current earnings per share. Interest income from the pre-acquisition investment of that cash benefited the current quarter $0.09. Lower other expense of $0.13 came from several onetime gains in the current year and by not repeating several onetime losses from last year. Lower corporate G&A contributed $0.01 while fewer favorable discrete tax benefits in the current quarter resulted in a higher tax rate, causing $0.12 of incremental tax expense. Finally, a lower share count benefited the quarter $0.09.

兩次收購所借債務增加的利息支出導致當前每股收益下降 0.15 美元。該現金收購前投資產生的利息收入使本季受益 0.09 美元。較低的其他費用為 0.13 美元，這是由於今年的幾次一次性收益以及去年沒有重複去年的幾次一次性損失。較低的企業管理費用貢獻了 0.01 美元，而本季有利的離散稅收優惠較少導致稅率較高，導致增量稅收費用為 0.12 美元。最後，股票數量減少使本季受益 0.09 美元。

Slide 8 shows total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the first quarter. Organic sales decreased year-over-year by negative 3.3%. Currency had a negative impact of minus 1.5%. These declines were partially offset by a positive impact of 0.6% from the September acquisition of Exotic. Despite declining sales, total adjusted segment operating margin improved to 17.3% versus 17.2% last year. This 10 basis point improvement reflects the operating cost improvements teams have been working hard on, combined with additional positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives.

幻燈片 8 顯示了派克第一季的總銷售額和部門營業利潤率。有機銷售額較去年同期下降 3.3%。貨幣的負面影響為-1.5%。這些下降被 9 月收購 Exotic 帶來的 0.6% 的正面影響部分抵消。儘管銷售額下降，調整後部門總營業利潤率仍從去年的 17.2% 提高至 17.3%。這 10 個基點的改進反映了團隊一直在努力改善營運成本，以及我們的獲勝策略措施帶來的額外正面影響。

On Slide 9, we're showing the small benefit Exotic had on the first quarter FY '20 results post close on September 16. You can see they contributed $21 million in sales and $3 million in operating income on an adjusted basis during this brief stub period. Exotic results are included in the Aerospace Systems segment.

在投影片 9 上，我們展示了 Exotic 在 9 月 16 日收盤後的 20 財年第一季業績中獲得的小額收益。您可以看到，在這段短暫的存續期間，他們貢獻了 2,100 萬美元的銷售額和 300 萬美元的營業收入（調整後）。奇異的成果包含在航太系統領域。

Moving to Slide 10. I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the first quarter, North American organic sales were down 3.2%. Currency had a small impact on sales of negative 0.2%. Even with lower sales, operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was an impressive 17.3% of sales versus 16.6% in the prior year. North America continued to deliver improved margins, which reflects the hard work dedicated to productivity improvements as well as synergies from CLARCOR and the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives.

轉到投影片 10。我將討論業務部門，首先是北美多元化工業部門。第一季度，北美有機銷售額下降 3.2%。匯率對銷售額的影響較小，為負 0.2%。即使銷售額較低，第一季調整後的營業利潤率仍高達銷售額的 17.3%，而去年同期為 16.6%。北美地區的利潤率持續提高，這反映了致力於提高生產力的辛勤工作以及 CLARCOR 的協同效應以及我們的獲勝策略舉措的影響。

Moving to Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide 11. Organic sales for the first quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 8.7%. Currency had a negative impact of minus 3.9%. Operating income for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was 15.9% of sales versus 17.0% in the prior year, a decremental margin of 25%. The teams continue to work on controlling costs during the more difficult drops in volume by utilizing tools of our Win Strategy initiatives.

前往投影片 11 上的多元化工業國際部分。工業國際部門第一季的有機銷售額下降了 8.7%。貨幣的負面影響為-3.9%。調整後第一季營業收入佔銷售額的 15.9%，而去年同期為 17.0%，下降了 25%。在銷售下降的困難時期，團隊繼續利用我們的獲勝策略計劃的工具來控製成本。

I'll now move to Slide 12 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues increased 8.2% for the first quarter as a result of growth in all of the platforms, with the strongest growth in military OEM and the commercial aftermarket. In addition, the Aerospace segment sales increased $21 million or 3.7% from the addition of the Exotic acquisition. Operating margin for the first quarter was 20% of sales versus 19.5% in the prior year, reflecting the impact of higher volume in all the platforms, lower development costs and good progress on The Win Strategy initiatives.

我現在將轉到幻燈片 12 來回顧航空航天系統部分。由於所有平台的成長，第一季的有機收入成長了 8.2%，其中軍事 OEM 和商業售後市場的成長最為強勁。此外，由於收購了 Exotic，航空航天部門的銷售額增加了 2,100 萬美元，即 3.7%。第一季的營業利益率為銷售額的 20%，而前一年為 19.5%，反映出所有平台銷量增加、開發成本降低以及「制勝策略」計畫取得良好進展的影響。

On Slide 13, we report cash flow from operating activities. Cash flow from operating activities was a first quarter record of $449 million or 13.5% of sales. This compares to 10.3% of sales for the same period last year after last year's number is adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution. That's a year-over-year increase of 25%. Free cash flow for the current quarter was 12% of sales and the conversion rate to net income was 118%.

在投影片 13 中，我們報告了經營活動產生的現金流量。第一季經營活動現金流創歷史新高，達 4.49 億美元，佔銷售額的 13.5%。相較之下，根據 2 億美元的可自由支配退休金繳款對去年的數字進行調整後，去年同期銷售額佔 10.3%。較去年同期成長 25%。本季自由現金流佔銷售額的 12%，淨利潤轉換率為 118%。

Moving to Slide 14. We show the details of order rates by segment. As a reminder, these order results exclude acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a 3-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Continued declines in the industrial markets drove total orders to drop 2% for the quarter end. This year-over-year decline is made up of a 6% decline from Diversified Industrial North America, 10% decline from Diversified Industrial International orders, offset by a very positive 22% increase from Aerospace Systems orders.

轉到投影片 14。我們按細分顯示訂單率的詳細資訊。提醒一下，這些訂單結果不包括收購、資產剝離和貨幣。多元化工業部門採用 3 個月滾動平均值進行報告，而航空航天系統則以 12 個月滾動平均值進行報告。工業市場持續下滑導致季末總訂單下降 2%。與去年同期相比，多元化工業北美訂單下降 6%，多元化工業國際訂單下降 10%，但航空航天系統訂單 22% 的大幅成長抵消了下降。

The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year 2020 is outlined on Slide #15. This guidance has been revised to align to current macro conditions and now includes the impact of the LORD and Exotic acquisitions. Guidance is being provided on both an as reported and an adjusted basis. Total sales for the year with the help from acquisitions are now expected to remain flat compared to prior year. Anticipated full year organic change at the midpoint is a decline of 6%. Currency is expected to have a negative 1.1% impact on sales and acquisitions will add 7.4% to the current year. We've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended September 30, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remaining quarters of this fiscal year.

第 15 張投影片概述了 2020 財年的全年獲利指引。該指引已經過修訂，以適應當前的宏觀條件，現在包括了 Lord 和 Exotic 收購的影響。正在根據報告和調整後的基礎上提供指導。在收購的幫助下，今年的總銷售額預計將與去年持平。預計全年有機變化中位數將下降 6%。預計匯率將對今年的銷售產生 1.1% 的負面影響，而收購則將增加 7.4%。我們計算了截至 9 月 30 日的季度貨幣對即期匯率的影響，並在估計本財年剩餘季度的同比影響時保持這些匯率穩定。

For total Parker, as reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.0% and 15.5% while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 16.0% and 16.5%. We've not adjusted for the incremental amortization of approximately $100 million which we will incur for the remainder of this year as a result of the 2 acquisitions.

就 Parker 整體而言，據報告，分部營業利潤率預計在 15.0% 至 15.5% 之間，而調整後分部營業利潤率預計在 16.0% 至 16.5% 之間。我們沒有對今年剩餘時間內因兩次收購而產生的約 1 億美元的增量攤銷進行調整。

The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. The first quarter tax rate was favorably impacted by discrete items which we don't forecast. We are anticipating a tax rate from continuing operations of 23.3% for quarters 2 through 4.

全年有效稅率預計為23%。第一季稅率受到我們未預測的離散項目的有利影響。我們預計第 2 至第 4 季持續經營業務的稅率為 23.3%。

For the full year, the guidance range for earnings per share on an as reported basis is now $8.53 to $9.33 or $8.93 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is now $10.10 to $10.90 or $10.50 at the midpoint. The adjustments to the as reported forecast made in this guidance include business realignment expenses of approximately $40 million for the full year fiscal 2020 with the associated savings projected to be $15 million.

就全年而言，按報告計算的每股收益指引範圍目前為 8.53 美元至 9.33 美元，中間值為 8.93 美元。在調整後每股收益的基礎上，指導範圍目前為 10.10 美元至 10.90 美元，中間值為 10.50 美元。本指南中報告預測的調整包括 2020 財年全年約 4,000 萬美元的業務調整費用，相關節省預計為 1,500 萬美元。

Synergy savings from CLARCOR are still estimated to achieve a run rate of $160 million by the end of fiscal '20, which represents an incremental $35 million of year-end savings. In addition, guidance on an adjusted basis excludes $27 million of integrated costs to achieve for LORD and Exotic and $200 million of onetime acquisition-related expenses. LORD and Exotic are expected to achieve synergy savings of $15 million this fiscal year. A reconciliation and further details of these adjustments can be found in the appendix to this morning's slides.

預計到 20 財年末，CLARCOR 的協同節省仍可實現 1.6 億美元的運行率，這意味著年底節省將增加 3,500 萬美元。此外，調整後的指導不包括LORD和Exotic要實現的2700萬美元的綜合成本以及2億美元的一次性收購相關費用。Lord 和 Exotic 預計本財年將實現 1500 萬美元的協同節省。這些調整的協調和進一步細節可以在今天早上幻燈片的附錄中找到。

Savings from all business realignment and acquisition costs to achieve are fully reflected in both the as reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison.

所有業務重組和收購成本實現的節省都充分反映在報告的和調整後的營業利潤指導範圍中。我們要求您繼續使用調整後的指導來發布您的估計，以便提供更一致的同比比較。

Some additional key assumptions for full year 2020 guidance at the midpoint are: a split first half, second half of 47%, 53% for all sales, adjusted segment operating income and adjusted EPS. All 3, we expect to be split 47%, 53%.

2020 年全年指引中點的一些額外關鍵假設是：上半年、下半年 47%、所有銷售額 53%、調整後的部門營業收入和調整後的每股盈餘。對於這 3 者，我們預計分別為 47% 和 53%。

Second quarter fiscal 2020 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.22 per share at the midpoint. This excludes $15 million of projected business realignment expenses and $167 million of acquisition-related expenses and costs to achieve for both LORD and Exotic.

2020 財年第二季調整後每股盈餘中位數預計為 2.22 美元。這不包括 1,500 萬美元的預期業務調整費用以及 1.67 億美元的收購相關費用以及 Lord 和 Exotic 的實現成本。

On Slide 16, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of revised fiscal year '20 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.50 per share at the midpoint compared to the prior guidance of $11.90 per share. Starting with just the legacy business, a $0.10 per share beat in the first quarter is quickly going to be offset by the challenging macro conditions facing the rest of the fiscal year. A drop of nearly $800 million in forecasted sales at the midpoint is driving a decline of $1.44 in operating income for the rest of the year.

在投影片 16 上，您會發現修訂後的 20 財年調整後每股收益指引的主要組成部分的中點為每股 10.50 美元，而先前的指引值為每股 11.90 美元。從傳統業務開始，第一季每股收益 0.10 美元的成長很快就會被本財年剩餘時間面臨的充滿挑戰的宏觀環境所抵消。中期預計銷售額將下降近 8 億美元，導致今年剩餘時間的營業收入下降 1.44 美元。

Interest expense in our previous guide included the interest on $2.3 billion of bonds we were holding for the acquisitions. Since then, we have borrowed additional term loans and commercial paper to complete both acquisitions. Now that both acquisitions are closed, we've allocated $0.72 of interest expense to the acquisitions, which includes the interest on the bonds, the term loans and the new commercial paper, causing a relief of $0.29 of interest expense within the legacy business.

我們先前指南中的利息支出包括我們為收購而持有的 23 億美元債券的利息。從那時起，我們借入了額外的定期貸款和商業票據來完成這兩項收購。現在兩項收購都已完成，我們已為收購分配了 0.72 美元的利息費用，其中包括債券、定期貸款和新商業票據的利息，從而使遺留業務中的利息費用減少了 0.29 美元。

Also in our previous guide, we had an assumption of earning $0.35 from interest income on the cash from the bonds. That cash has now been used for the acquisition so the other expense line which includes interest income has been reduced going forward.

同樣在我們先前的指南中，我們假設從債券現金的利息收入中賺取 0.35 美元。該現金現已用於收購，因此包括利息收入在內的其他費用項目已減少。

And finally within the legacy business, we are anticipating a slightly higher tax rate for the rest of the year, which will drop earnings per share $0.03, resulting in revised legacy Parker adjusted guidance of $10.50.

最後，在傳統業務中，我們預計今年剩餘時間的稅率將略高，這將使每股收益下降 0.03 美元，從而將傳統 Parker 調整後的指引調整為 10.50 美元。

Exotic is estimated to contribute $0.28 and LORD $0.44 to operating income for the year, inclusive of the additional combined $100 million amortization expense we will be incurring. Offsetting this will be the $0.72 of interest expense related to the debt for these acquisitions. All-in, this leaves $10.50 consolidated adjusted earnings per share at the midpoint for our guide for fiscal 2020.

Exotic 預計將為本年度營業收入貢獻 0.28 美元，LORD 0.44 美元，其中包括我們將產生的額外 1 億美元攤銷費用。與這些收購的債務相關的 0.72 美元利息費用將抵消此損失。總而言之，這使得 10.50 美元的合併調整後每股收益處於我們 2020 財年指南的中點。

On Slide 17, we show the impact the acquisitions will have on both an as reported and adjusted basis. On an adjusted basis, the acquisitions lower operating margin to 16.3% for total Parker from 16.6% for legacy Parker, impacted by $100 million of amortization expense. For adjusted EBITDA margins, the acquisitions provide 50 basis points of improvement, moving from 18.2% for legacy Parker to 18.7% for total Parker. For those of you building forecast models, we've included more details regarding the LORD and Exotic impact on the total year guidance in the appendix.

在投影片 17 中，我們展示了收購對報告和調整後的基礎產生的影響。在調整後的基礎上，受 1 億美元攤銷費用的影響，收購將 Parker 整體營運利潤率從傳統 Parker 的 16.6% 降至 16.3%。對於調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率而言，這些收購提高了 50 個基點，從傳統 Parker 的 18.2% 提高到 Parker 整體的 18.7%。對於那些建立預測模型的人，我們在附錄中提供了有關「耶和華」和「異國情調」對全年指導的更多詳細資訊。

If you'll now go to Slide #18, I'll turn it back to Tom for summary comments.

如果您現在轉到幻燈片 #18，我會將其轉回給 Tom 以獲取摘要評論。

Thank you, Cathy. So we're very pleased with our progress. We are going to perform well with this downturn as demonstrated by our cash flow performance and raising the floor on operating margins. And we're well on our way to being that top-quartile company that we want to achieve and being best-in-class.

謝謝你，凱西。所以我們對我們的進展感到非常滿意。正如我們的現金流表現和營業利潤率下限的提高所證明的那樣，我們將在這次低迷時期表現良好。我們正在努力成為我們想要實現的前四分之一的公司，並成為一流的公司。

And just a reminder of where we're trying to drive to, we want to transform the company to achieve the targets we've set out in FY '23 of growing organically 150 basis points greater than global industrial production growth, segment operating margins of 19%, EBITDA margins of 20%, free cash flow conversion greater than 100% and EPS CAGR over that time period of 10%-plus.

只是提醒我們要努力實現的目標，我們希望對公司進行轉型，以實現我們在 23 財年設定的目標，即有機增長比全球工業生產增長高 150 個基點，部門營業利潤率19%，EBITDA 利潤率為20%，自由現金流轉換率超過100%，每股盈餘複合年增長率超過10%。

So again, thanks to everybody, all the global team members around the world for your hard work. And with that, I'll hand it over to Joelle to start the Q&A portion of the call.

再次感謝大家，感謝世界各地所有全球團隊成員的辛勤工作。接下來，我會將其交給 Joelle 來開始通話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Nathan Jones。

Tom, it seems like you guys have taken maybe a bit more negative outlook going forward over the next 3 quarters here than some of your peers have. I think you mentioned you were planning on 3 more quarters of downturn here. Can you just maybe talk a little bit about what's going on in the end markets and your expectations around why you're thinking this downturn is as long as you guys have seemed to have built into guidance here?

湯姆，看來你們對未來三個季度的展望可能比一些同業更加消極。我想你提到過你計劃再經歷三個季度的低迷。您能否談談終端市場正在發生的事情，以及您對為什麼您認為這種低迷持續時間的預期，正如您似乎已經納入到這裡的指導中一樣？

Yes. Nathan, it's Tom. I'm sure this is the question top of mind for everybody. I'll start off with going through kind of what was behind the guide then I'll finish with a summary of end markets.

是的。內森，是湯姆。相信這是大家最關心的問題。我將首先介紹指南背後的內容，然後我將總結終端市場。

So it starts first with our Q1 orders. And you've seen that minus 2% total company, but in particular minus 6% North America and minus 10% internationally. And then you got to look at other external indicators that are typically flow-through in our orders 3 to 6 months out. Those things like the ISMs and the PMIs. So the U.S. is in that 47.8% for September. That was a 10-year low, as everybody knows. Europe's PMI of 45.7% for September. And of course, Germany, our third-largest country, at 41.7%, obviously feeling the impact of the trade-related uncertainties. Asia PMIs are weak. And so when we look, part of what influenced our forecast was the trend of orders through the quarter. So August and September were about the same, but they were weaker than July. And then as you look at October, while October is not done yet, we looked at October on a daily basis, we saw further softening from that August and September rate.

因此，首先從我們第一季的訂單開始。您已經看到公司總數為負 2%，尤其是北美為負 6%，國際為負 10%。然後你必須查看其他外部指標，這些指標通常會在 3 到 6 個月後的訂單中流通。諸如 ISM 和 PMI 之類的東西。因此，美國 9 月的比例為 47.8%。眾所周知，這是十年來的最低點。歐洲9月PMI為45.7%。當然，我們第三大國德國（41.7%）明顯感受到了貿易相關不確定性的影響。亞洲 PMI 疲軟。因此，當我們觀察時，影響我們預測的部分因素是整個季度的訂單趨勢。所以8月和9月大致相同，但比7月弱。然後，當你觀察 10 月時，雖然 10 月尚未結束，但我們每天都會觀察 10 月，我們發現 8 月和 9 月的利率進一步疲軟。

So put those factors into also our bottoms-up latest look for divisions, in our view, yielded a more challenging macro environment. So I'll peel back the organic piece a little bit more and I'll give you some of my thoughts as to why we did what we did. So you've seen organic at the midpoint at minus 6%. So that composition is North America at minus 6%, International at minus 11.5% and Aerospace at plus 4.5%. So the first half, second half organic is both minus 6%. So minus 6% for the first half, minus 6% for the second half.

因此，我們認為，將這些因素也納入我們自下而上的最新部門劃分中，會產生更具挑戰性的宏觀環境。因此，我將進一步剝離有機部分，並向您提供一些關於我們為什麼這樣做的想法。所以你看到有機率的中間值是-6%。因此，北美地區為負 6%，國際地區為負 11.5%，航空航太地區為正 4.5%。所以上半年、下半年有機會率都是-6%。因此，上半年為負 6%，下半年為負 6%。

And so given that organic growth was minus 3% in Q1, that implies that our low point or the bottoming out of Parker is somewhere between Q2 and Q3 in this guidance. And we also look, remember, I talked about the pressure curves last time and we had baked in about a 15-month duration. This now looks like it's an 18-month duration, the whole fiscal year. That's the difference versus the prior guide.

因此，考慮到第一季的有機成長為-3%，這意味著我們的低點或帕克的觸底反彈位於本指南中的第二季和第三季之間。我們也看，記住，我上次談到了壓力曲線，我們已經烘烤了大約 15 個月的持續時間。現在看來，整個財政年度的持續時間為 18 個月。這就是與之前指南的區別。

When we look at the 4 phases of growth that we've talked about in the past, the markets are definitely moving through those phases. The largest phase is now in Phase 4, decelerating growth at 48%. That last quarter, that was at minus 10%. So that's encouraging that they're starting to move through that. When you look at Phase 3, which is accelerating decline, that used to be 67% last quarter, now it's 28%. So that's also an important point. All these things are signaling some kind of a bottoming for us about the midpoint of our FY '20.

當我們審視過去討論的四個成長階段時，市場肯定正在經歷這些階段。目前最大的階段是第四階段，成長放緩至 48%。上個季度，這一數字為-10%。因此，他們開始克服這個問題是令人鼓舞的。當你看看第三階段時，它正在加速下降，上個季度曾經是 67%，現在是 28%。所以這也是很重要的一點。所有這些事情都預示著我們在 20 財年中期已經觸底。

So maybe now just to kind of walk on the prior guide to the new guide. So the prior guide was minus 1.5% at the midpoint. Again, I'm talking about organic. And the new guide is minus 6%. So that's a 450 basis point step-down. Our orders stepped down 200 basis points. And again, I'm focused on the industrial piece where North America and International stepped down 200 basis points.

所以也許現在只是從之前的指南轉向新指南。因此，先前的指導值為中點負 1.5%。我再次談論有機。新的指導值為-6%。所以降幅為 450 個基點。我們的訂單減少了 200 個基點。我再次關注工業部分，其中北美和國際市場下調了 200 個基點。

And then we had to try to project out those ISMs and PMIs I just described that are pretty negative and they're going to flow through in orders anywhere over the next couple of months to maybe a maximum of 6 months and then also looking at the October orders that weakened from what you see in September. So that kind of made up the balance. You got 200 that's already declined with orders. The balance of 250 made up by projecting those PMIs and ISMs into our future orders and what we saw in October. So that kind of gives you the walk down.

然後我們必須嘗試預測我剛才描述的那些相當負面的 ISM 和 PMI，它們將在接下來的幾個月到最多 6 個月的任何地方以訂單形式流動，然後還要考慮10 月份訂單較9 月份有所減弱。這樣就達到平衡了。您有 200 個訂單已被拒絕。剩下的 250 個是透過將這些 PMI 和 ISM 預測到我們未來的訂單以及我們 10 月看到的情況來彌補的。這樣你就可以走下去了。

So maybe if I'd give you comments on the end markets for Q1. I'll start with the positives. Aerospace continues to be very strong, lawn and turf, forestry and marine, and pretty much all the others are negative. So probably the best way for me to summarize the others is to kind of take them into major buckets.

那麼，也許我想對第一季的終端市場發表評論。我將從正面的方面開始。航空航太業、草坪業、林業和海洋業仍然表現強勁，而幾乎所有其他行業都表現不佳。因此，對我來說，總結其他內容的最佳方法可能是將它們分成幾個主要部分。

So distribution, I recognize, is not a market, but it's an important channel for us. Distribution actually got a little bit better. I'm talking about going from Q4 to Q1 year-over-year. It came in Q1 at about minus 2%. And in Q4, it was a minus 2.5%. That composition, North America got better, Europe stayed about the same and Asia Pacific got worse.

因此，我認識到，分銷不是市場，但對我們來說是一個重要的管道。分佈實際上變得更好了一些。我說的是從第四季到第一季的年比情況。第一季的成長率約為-2%。第四季為-2.5%。從這種組成來看，北美變得更好，歐洲保持不變，亞太地區變得更糟。

The industrial end markets stayed relatively the same, both were minus 9%, minus 9% in Q4, minus 9% in Q1.

工業終端市場相對不變，均為-9%，第四季為-9%，第一季為-9%。

And the mobile market is where we saw the step-down. Mobile markets went from a minus 3% in Q4 to a minus 6%. In particular, what stepped down in mobile was ag, construction, heavy-duty truck and material handling. So that's a quick run-through. That's at the global level, what I was describing as far as the end markets and what caused us to move the guidance like we did.

行動市場是我們看到下降的地方。行動市場從第四季的負 3% 升至負 6%。尤其是移動領域，農業、建築、重型卡車和物料搬運領域的下降。這是一個快速瀏覽。這是在全球層面上，我所描述的終端市場以及是什麼導致我們像我們一樣調整指導方針。

I appreciate the transparency and on the color there. Just moving away from things that are happening in the short-term here. I'm sure there'll be plenty of questions for that on you. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about what's changed in The Win Strategy 3.0 from Win Strategy 2.0.

我很欣賞那裡的透明度和顏色。只是遠離短期內發生的事情。我相信會有很多關於你的問題。或許您可以簡單談談《獲勝策略3.0》相對於《獲勝策略2.0》的變化。

Yes. And I'd be happy to do that because that's going to be very exciting for the company. And obviously, when we have you all together, we'll go through this in a lot more detail. But if I would just paraphrase the key points.

是的。我很樂意這樣做，因為這對公司來說將是非常令人興奮的。顯然，當我們聚集在一起時，我們將更詳細地討論這個問題。但如果我能解釋一下關鍵點。

So underneath engagement, we're going to continue to expand that whole ownership concept with the idea that the more people we have thinking and acting like an owner, the better the company is going to perform. But a big change on engaged people is kaizen, and we'll take you through all the things we're doing on kaizen as far as our approach to it, who we're working with and the results we're seeing.

因此，在參與的基礎上，我們將繼續擴展整個所有權概念，我們的想法是，我們有越多的人像所有者一樣思考和行事，公司的表現就越好。但是，對於敬業的人來說，一個重大的改變是改善，我們將帶您了解我們在改善方面所做的所有事情，包括我們的方法、我們正在與誰合作以及我們看到的結果。

Under customer experience, a lot more emphasis on digital leadership. And we'll expand what we mean by that. And a new metric, which is not too dissimilar to what we had before, but we have a new metric called Composite Likelihood to Recommend, which is going to be a mixture of on-time delivery and feedback from our customers and distributors.

在客戶體驗下，更加強調數位化領導力。我們將擴展我們的意思。還有一個新指標，與我們之前的指標並沒有太大不同，但我們有一個稱為「綜合可能性推薦」的新指標，它將按時交付以及來自客戶和分銷商的反饋結合起來。

And profitable growth, we have this new strategic initiative called Strategic Positioning, which we'll give you more color on. New product blueprinting underneath innovation and 2 new metrics for innovation, product vitality index and gross margin for that product vitality. And we'll explain more about that when we're in person.

在獲利成長方面，我們有一項新的策略舉措，稱為策略定位，我們將為您提供更多資訊。創新背後的新產品藍圖和 2 個新的創新指標：產品活力指數和產品活力的毛利率。當我們親自見面時，我們會對此進行更多解釋。

And then on simplification, a very new, powerful concept called Simple by Design, where we focus on simplifying the design of our products to reduce the bill of material complexity, the inventory and planning and scheduling complexity and the ability to produce it, recognizing about 70% of our product costs are tied up in how we design it.

然後是簡化，這是一個非常新的、強大的概念，稱為“簡單設計”，我們專注於簡化產品的設計，以降低物料清單的複雜性、庫存、計劃和調度的複雜性以及生產能力，認識到我們 70% 的產品成本與我們的設計方式息息相關。

So we will talk a lot more about that when we have you all there. We will be somewhat careful on Simple by Design because I don't want to teach all my competitors how to do that, but we'll give you enough color so that you all know that it's real and there's some big enhancements to the company, both on a growth and a margin standpoint.

因此，當大家都到場時，我們將更多地討論這個問題。我們會對「簡單設計」持謹慎態度，因為我不想教我所有的競爭對手如何做到這一點，但我們會給你們足夠的色彩，以便你們都知道它是真實的，並且對公司有一些重大改進，無論是從成長或利潤的角度來看。

Our next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ann Duignan。

I'm not sure that there are any questions left after all of that color. You gave us global end markets, industrial versus mobile. Would you mind breaking those up by region please or any notable differences across the major markets that have declined: ag, construction, heavy duty, material handling?

我不確定在所有這些顏色之後是否還剩下任何問題。您為我們提供了全球終端市場，工業市場和行動市場。您介意按地區將這些數據細分嗎？或者說，下降的主要市場（農業、建築、重型、物料搬運）之間是否有顯著差異？

Yes. Ann, it's Tom. So I'll give you the high points by region. So North America was about 3% organic decline. On the positive side was machine tools, heavy-duty truck, forestry and lawn and turf. Flat was distribution and automotive. And then on the negative side, we had low single digits was mining, telecom and life sciences. Mid-single-digit decline, these are all declines, refrigeration, mills and foundries and tires. And then switching to more of the mobile markets, mid-single-digit declines was construction and marine and mid-teen declines was ag, material handling and rail. So again, I had mentioned that distribution fared better in North America than any of the other regions as far as how it performed.

是的。安，是湯姆。因此，我將按地區為您提供最高點。因此，北美地區的有機下降約為 3%。積極的一面是工具機、重型卡車、林業和草坪。分銷和汽車業務持平。不利的一面是，採礦、電信和生命科學領域的個位數較低。中個位數下降，這些都是冷凍、工廠、鑄造廠和輪胎的下降。然後轉向更多的移動市場，建築和船舶行業出現中個位數下降，農業、物料搬運和鐵路行業出現中位數下降。我再次提到，就其表現而言，北美的分銷表現比其他地區都要好。

And Europe came in about a minus 7% for the quarter. On the positive side was refrigeration, power, semicon, life science and oil and gas. And then on the negative side, starting with the industrial end markets, we had a couple that were greater than 20%, mills and foundries, machine tools. Obviously, Europe being more export sensitive, feeling the impact of trade uncertainties. Those are very trade-centric type of end markets. Mid-teen declines was mining, tire and rubber. Distribution came in around minus 4.5%, about the same as it was versus prior period. And mobile, we had low single-digit declines in construction and ag and about 10% on heavy-duty truck and auto. So actually mobile fared okay in Europe. The industrial end markets suffered worse in Europe.

歐洲本季的成長率約為-7%。積極的一面是冷凍、電力、半導體、生命科學以及石油和天然氣。然後從負面來看，從工業終端市場開始，我們有一些超過 20% 的市場，例如工廠、鑄造廠、工具機。顯然，歐洲對出口更加敏感，感受到了貿易不確定性的影響。這些是非常以貿易為中心的終端市場。採礦業、輪胎業和橡膠業的跌幅處於中位數。分配率約-4.5%，與上一時期大致相同。在移動領域，建築業和農業業的跌幅較低，為個位數，重型卡車和汽車業的跌幅約為 10%。事實上，行動裝置在歐洲的表現還不錯。歐洲工業終端市場遭受的損失更為嚴重。

And then in Asia, on the positive side, Asia came in at a 12% decline for Q1. And then on the positive side were oil and gas, mining and marine. Although it declined, distribution was down about 5.5%. And on the industrial space, we had about mid-teen declines on mills, refrigeration, machine tools, greater than 20% on some of those big, secular end markets like power gen, semicon, and of course, telecom being somewhat impacted by the Huawei challenges. And then on the mobile side is where we saw some of the steepest declines, greater than 20% in construction, ag, material handling and rail. So you can see that mobile feeling the worst in Asia Pacific. So that's a quick spin to the regions.

然後在亞洲，從積極的一面來看，亞洲第一季下降了 12%。其次是石油和天然氣、採礦和海洋業。儘管有所下降，但發行量卻下降了約 5.5%。在工業領域，工廠、冷凍、工具機等領域的跌幅約為 10%，其中一些大型長期終端市場（如發電、半導體，當然還有電信）的跌幅超過 20%，電信也受到了一定程度的影響。華為的挑戰。然後，在移動領域，我們看到了一些跌幅最大的領域，建築、農業、物料搬運和鐵路領域的跌幅超過 20%。所以你可以看到該行動裝置在亞太地區的感受最差。所以這是對這些地區的快速旋轉。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, I think you've already answered this. But are you seeing any signs of -- I hate to like use the word we use every time when we're coming up -- but any green shoots anywhere?

好的。然後作為後續行動，我想你已經回答了這個問題。但是你有沒有看到任何跡象——我討厭使用我們每次出現時都會使用的詞——但任何地方都出現了新芽？

Well, what has been nice is that distribution got a little bit better. So we like that. The fact that, that went into Phase 4. And we had a number of other things moving into Phase 4, automotive and life sciences and oil and gas. And actually, power gen and semicon, even though they're down mid-teens for us, the fact that they went into Phase 4. I always like when things move into Phase 4 because then guess what the next phase is, accelerating growth. So that's encouraging.

嗯，令人高興的是分佈變得更好了一些。所以我們喜歡這樣。事實上，這進入了第四階段。我們還有許多其他事情進入了第四階段，汽車和生命科學以及石油和天然氣。事實上，發電和半導體，儘管它們對我們來說已經下降了十幾歲，但事實上它們進入了第四階段。我總是喜歡當事情進入第四階段時，因為然後猜測下一階段是什麼，加速成長。所以這是令人鼓舞的。

And we still had the ones that were strong and continue to be strong like aerospace. Lawn and turf is seeing some seasonal help there. And forestry, with all the paper-related goods tied to e-commerce, has continued to be strong. So those are what I would say as indicators. Again, for us, what we're signaling with this guidance is a bottom forming for us. I can't call a bottom for anybody else, but a bottom for us is somewhere in the middle of our fiscal year.

我們仍然擁有強大且持續強大的業務，例如航空航天業。草坪和草皮在那裡看到了一些季節性的幫助。林業以及所有與電子商務相關的紙張相關商品持續保持強勁勢頭。這些就是我所說的指標。同樣，對我們來說，我們透過這項指引發出的信號是我們正在形成底部。我不能說其他人已經觸底，但我們的觸底是在我們財政年度中期的某個時候。

Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Tiss。

I just wonder on the last discussion and super-duper color there. Can you just give us any sense of how you take -- it feels like things are a little worse now or maybe in the next couple of month’s future because of inventory reductions. How do you take the amplification of that in the near term out of your forward guidance? I'm just curious how to think about that.

我只是想知道最後的討論和那裡的超級顏色。您能告訴我們您的看法嗎？由於庫存減少，感覺現在或未來幾個月的情況會變得更糟。您如何將短期內這種情況的放大從您的前瞻性指引中剔除出來？我只是好奇如何思考這個問題。

Yes. Joel, it's Tom again. So the destocking is always a tough question. But the one area where we do have good data on is North America distribution. And you've heard both Lee and I talk about this in the past that the destocking has been improving by about 100 bps. And that's actually what happened again. So to refresh people's memory, in Q3 of '19 it was down 300 bps of destocking, Q4 was 200 bps and now Q1 was 100 bps.

是的。喬爾，又是湯姆。因此，去庫存始終是一個棘手的問題。但我們確實擁有良好數據的一個領域是北美分佈。你們過去都聽過李和我談論過，去庫存已經改善了約 100 個基點。這實際上又發生了。因此，為了刷新人們的記憶，19年第三季去庫存下降了300個基點，第四季下降了200個基點，現在第一季下降了100個基點。

So we had guided to that we felt distribution was going to -- at least North America was going to get into somewhat of equilibrium at the end of the calendar year, so end of Q2, but we clearly are seeing destocking at the OEMs, especially the mobile OEMs destocking. And how long that takes to play through is very difficult because we don't have the kind of visibility into that, that we have with the U.S. distribution. What we're guiding to, it's very hard to split end market demand versus destocking. What we gave you is kind of our view all-in of this impact.

因此，我們認為分銷將在年底（即第二季末）達到某種程度的平衡，但我們顯然看到原始設備製造商的庫存減少，尤其是移動OEM廠商去庫存。玩完需要多長時間是非常困難的，因為我們沒有美國發行版那樣的可見度。我們的指導方針是，很難將終端市場需求與去庫存分開。我們向您提供的是我們對這種影響的整體看法。

And then just like a strategic question, and not so much thinking about a forecast, just thinking about, how do we think about Parker's earnings resiliency going forward, like beyond the obvious? Okay, aerospace is a bigger part of the company. But like some of the ways that you guys think about that could help us.

然後就像一個策略問題一樣，而不是過度考慮預測，只是考慮我們如何看待帕克未來的獲利彈性，就像超越顯而易見的那樣？好吧，航空航天是公司的重要組成部分。但就像你們想到的一些方法可以幫助我們。

Yes. Joel, it's Tom. That's a good question. And I'm actually glad that you asked it because we've been working very hard at this, as you might imagine. And there's a number of factors. First, it would start with some of the portfolio moves that we made over the last number of years, CLARCOR, LORD and Exotic. So let me give you some, for instance.

是的。喬爾，是湯姆。這是個好問題。我真的很高興你問這個問題，因為正如你想像的那樣，我們一直在這方面非常努力。有很多因素。首先，我們將從過去幾年中進行的一些投資組合措施開始，例如 CLARCOR、LORD 和 Exotic。例如，讓我給你一些。

So when we look at our order entry without getting into things that I don't want to disclose publicly. Our filtration platform is holding up much better than the rest of the industrial platform. And that was by design with CLARCOR with its density in aftermarket. So that it's living up to its billing, what we had hoped for. LORD is coming in with about a 4% organic growth. And that compares to what we just told you, are guiding to a minus 6% for Parker. And Exotic's growth is coming in around 11%. And so that's better than Parker and better than Parker Aerospace. So you got some portfolio things that we're doing that drives resilience and enhance organic growth.

因此，當我們查看訂單條目時，不會涉及我不想公開披露的事情。我們的過濾平台比其他工業平台的表現好得多。這是 CLARCOR 以其在售後市場的密度而設計的。所以它不辜負我們的期望。Lord 的有機成長約為 4%。與我們剛剛告訴您的相比，帕克的指導值為-6%。Exotic 的成長率約為 11%。所以這比帕克好，也比帕克航空航太好。因此，我們正在做一些投資組合的事情，這些事情可以提高彈性並增強有機成長。

And then you've heard us talk about what we have been doing on distribution, growing international distribution, in particular. And we've changed that mix from when we started with Win Strategy 2.0, we were at 35% international mix in distribution and now it's 40%. So that doesn't seem like a lot, but moving that number 100 bps a year is meaningful. That enhances margins and it provides more resilience, again, because our channel there is servicing primarily aftermarket.

然後你聽到我們談論我們在發行方面所做的事情，特別是不斷發展的國際發行。從開始推出《Win Strategy 2.0》以來，我們已經改變了這個組合，我們的發行比例是 35%，現在是 40%。所以這看起來並不是很多，但是每年將這個數字移動 100 個基點是有意義的。這提高了利潤率，並提供了更大的彈性，因為我們的通路主要為售後市場提供服務。

We're doing a lot of things on innovation, which we'll give you a lot more color with 3.0 when we see you all in March. But the new product blueprinting, product vitality index, our gross margins that we're tracking on these products are all designed -- because when you look at our innovation growth, it is growing faster than the base business so it's going to hold up better in a downturn. The things we're trying to do to drive customer experience are really important because you can't really grow with a customer if you don't give them a good experience.

我們在創新方面做了很多事情，當我們三月與大家見面時，我們將透過 3.0 為大家帶來更多的色彩。但是新產品藍圖、產品活力指數、我們追蹤這些產品的毛利率都是經過設計的——因為當你看到我們的創新成長時，它的成長速度比基礎業務快，所以它會保持得更好在低迷時期。我們為推動客戶體驗所做的事情非常重要，因為如果你不給客戶良好的體驗，你就無法真正與客戶一起成長。

And then all the things we've been doing operating-wise, simplification, lean, supply chain, et cetera, and now kaizen to make the company more agile and just a better operating company. So those would be the things that I would say on the top line and then just from an operating standpoint, how we're going to get to those FY '23 targets.

然後我們一直在營運、簡化、精實、供應鏈等方面所做的所有事情，現在又進行了改善，以使公司更加敏捷，成為一家營運更好的公司。因此，這些就是我要在最上面說的內容，然後從營運的角度來看，我們將如何實現 23 財年的目標。

Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的傑米庫克。

I guess just a couple of questions. I guess the first one, just understanding the guide, the International or the implied International adjusted margins, I guess, fall off a little more than I would have expected in the remaining 9 months of the year. Understanding there's a lot of moving parts, but is there any way you could sort of help us with what the puts and takes are there besides increasing it more.

我想只有幾個問題。我想第一個，只要理解指南，國際或隱含的國際調整利潤率，我想，在今年剩下的 9 個月裡，下降幅度比我預期的要大一些。了解有很多移動部件，但是除了增加更多之外，您是否可以通過任何方式幫助我們了解其中的看跌期權和拿走期權。

And then just obviously the cash flow in the quarter was very strong. And as we are in sort of a slowdown here, leverage becomes more topical. So just, Tom, how we should think about cash flow for 2020, whether there's any structural improvements we should be looking for?

顯然，本季的現金流非常強勁。由於我們的經濟放緩，槓桿變得更加熱門。那麼，湯姆，我們應該如何考慮 2020 年的現金流，我們是否應該尋求任何結構性改進？

So Jamie, let me start. I'll have Cathy add on as far as debt and maybe comment on cash flow. But one thing I want to try to make sure everybody understands, this new guide has got still some really good decremental margins in it. If you benchmark companies, which I know you all do this, a minus 30% decremental is still best-in-class decrementals. So I'm just going to read to you total decrementals for the company Q2 through the rest of the year. So Q2 -- these are approximate. These are at the midpoint. There's going to be a range around these numbers -- a 27% decremental, Q3 a 28% decremental, Q4 a 23% decremental. So we end up with a full year at about a 25% decremental.

傑米，讓我開始吧。我會讓凱西補充一下債務問題，也許還會評論一下現金流。但我想嘗試確保每個人都理解一件事，這本新指南仍然有一些非常好的遞減餘裕。如果你對公司進行基準測試（我知道你們都這麼做），負 30% 的減量仍然是同類最佳的減量。因此，我將向您宣讀公司第二季到今年剩餘時間的總減量。Q2——這些都是近似值。這些位於中點。這些數字將會有一個範圍——減少 27%，第三季減少 28%，第四季減少 23%。因此，我們最終全年的產量減少了 25% 左右。

So those are really, I think, very excellent performance given that if you look at industrial, it's going to be down minus 6% North America and minus 11.5% in International. That's why International is a little bit worse on its decrementals. North America is coming in around 24% and International is at 29% and it's because it's about a 2x difference on volume. And so that's creating a lot more challenges.

因此，我認為，考慮到工業領域的表現，北美地區將下降-6%，國際地區將下降-11.5%，這些表現確實非常出色。這就是為什麼國際航空的減量稍微差一些。北美地區的佔比約為 24%，國際地區的佔比為 29%，這是因為數量上相差約 2 倍。這帶來了更多的挑戰。

And then in addition to the volume side, International has currency, which we've always struggled to identify a currency impact on financials and we've basically decided not to try to communicate that because you can't get a consistent number with it, but we do all know that when currency becomes a headwind to us, it becomes a pressure point on margins. So that's another factor for International.

然後，除了數量方面之外，國際還有貨幣，我們一直在努力確定貨幣對財務的影響，我們基本上決定不嘗試傳達這一點，因為你無法獲得一致的數字，但我們都知道，當貨幣成為當我們的阻力時，它就會成為利潤率的壓力點。這是國際化的另一個因素。

On cash flow, and I'll hand it over to Cathy. I would have shareholders rest assured that, that 18 years of 10%-plus CFOA is going to turn into 19 years because we've got a proven track record of being able to work working capital. And these operating margins, like you heard me talk about in my opening comments, are 180 basis points better than our last downturn. So we have better operating margins and we'll work the working capital like we normally do. And Cathy, do you have anything to add on?

關於現金流，我會把它交給Cathy。我希望股東們放心，18 年的 10% 以上的 CFOA 將變成 19 年，因為我們在營運資本方面擁有良好的記錄。正如您在開場白中聽到的那樣，這些營業利潤率比上次經濟低迷時期高出 180 個基點。因此，我們擁有更好的營業利潤率，並且我們將像平常一樣使用營運資金。凱茜，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Jamie, we finished the quarter end at a levered gross debt to EBITDA of 3.6. We did bring in a small amount of additional debt in the form of term loan to close LORD this past week. And so it's going to go up slightly. But if you look historically, we do have a great track record of managing the working capital very well during a down cycle. So we're pretty confident.

是的。Jamie，我們季末的槓桿總負債與 EBITDA 比率為 3.6。上週，我們確實以定期貸款的形式帶來了少量額外債務，以關閉 Lord。所以它會略有上升。但如果你回顧歷史，我們確實擁有在經濟下行週期期間很好地管理營運資金的良好記錄。所以我們非常有信心。

In addition to that, both LORD and Exotic have a history of very strong cash flow, stronger than Parker. So they will be great contributors to it. And we're confident. We would be at a level that we were with CLARCOR when we closed that deal, and we brought that down very quickly. And we feel that we can do the same even though we are seeing things slow down. Also keep in mind, we do carry about $1 billion of international cash so our net debt to EBITDA was actually 2.1 at the end of the quarter.

除此之外，LORD 和 Exotic 都有非常強勁的現金流，比 Parker 還要強。因此，他們將為此做出巨大貢獻。我們有信心。當我們完成該交易時，我們將處於與 CLARCOR 相同的水平，我們很快就將其取消了。儘管我們看到事情正在放緩，但我們覺得我們可以做同樣的事情。另請記住，我們確實持有約 10 億美元的國際現金，因此本季末我們的 EBITDA 淨負債實際上為 2.1。

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Just looking at the organic growth first half, second half. Obviously, the second half, a big change from used to be up 1% to negative 6% now. Can you take us through your thoughts on how you see orders playing out underneath that decline? I mean, it seems like the second quarter you're expecting the biggest organic decline but the second half is still pretty healthy at down 6%. I mean, healthy, meaning a large decline. So I'm just trying to get a sense of how you're viewing the order patterns underneath that negative 6% in fiscal second half.

只看上半年和下半年的自然成長。顯然，下半年發生了很大的變化，從過去的上漲1%到現在的負6%。您能否向我們介紹一下您對訂單在下降趨勢下的表現有何看法？我的意思是，您預計第二季的自然下降幅度似乎最大，但下半年仍相當健康，下降了 6%。我的意思是，健康，意味著大幅下降。所以我只是想了解一下您如何看待下半年負 6% 的訂單模式。

Yes. David, it's Tom. And that's where the forecast gets more and more challenging is the further that you go out. But we really were trying to project some of those macro indicators that I mentioned in my comments, U.S. ISM, Germany's number, Asia's PMIs, the rest of Europe PMIs, et cetera, recognizing that as we plotted those historically, they tend to lag and impact our orders 3 to 6 months out.

是的。大衛，是湯姆。這就是你走得越遠，預測就越具有挑戰性的地方。但我們確實在嘗試預測我在評論中提到的一些宏觀指標，例如美國ISM、德國的數據、亞洲的PMI、歐洲其他地區的PMI 等等，我們認識到，當我們從歷史角度繪製這些指標時，它們往往會滯後且滯後。影響我們 3 至 6 個月後的訂單。

So we know we saw a weakening in October. That's going to influence Q2. And then these other macro indicators, 3 to 6 months out, starts to impact the second half. And so that was the thought process behind that, but it does become more challenging as we try to figure that out because our backlog outside of aerospace doesn't carry us out that far so we had to kind of look at historical trends and lagging periods between these macro indicators and what we do.

所以我們知道十月份出現了疲軟。這將影響第二季度。然後這些其他宏觀指標在 3 到 6 個月後開始影響下半年。這就是背後的思考過程，但當我們試圖弄清楚這一點時，它確實變得更具挑戰性，因為我們在航空航天以外的積壓工作並不能讓我們走得那麼遠，所以我們必須看看歷史趨勢和滯後時期這些宏觀指標和我們所做的事情之間的關係。

Yes. I'm just trying to think how you thought about managing your own inventory through the end of the year and that interplay between, okay, the second half's a lot weaker than we thought, but we do see some bottoming process, and that's how we're managing, be it not even just inventory, but how you're thinking about pricing that usually gets announced Jan 1 and so forth. I mean, is it fair to say at this stage you're not thinking of the orders improving much in the back half fiscally? Just the comps get a lot easier. So I think for a lot of people seeing the cut to the organic is obviously not pleasant. But if you felt the orders were improving in the back half to some degree, you can call it temporary. Because the way you're speaking to the business is, it's kind of a temporary macro environment. I know it's hard to call. I was just curious, do you have some sense of where you're headed and how you're managing the company to that fiscal second half? It doesn't sound like you're planning for orders to be, say, up in the latter part of the year. Is that a fair assessment on how you're trying to manage?

是的。我只是想想想你如何看待在年底管理自己的庫存以及兩者之間的相互作用，好吧，下半年比我們想像的要弱得多，但我們確實看到了一些觸底過程，這就是我們的方式正在管理的不僅僅是庫存，還有你如何考慮通常在 1 月 1 日公佈的定價等等。我的意思是，可以公平地說，在現階段您不認為訂單在下半年的財政狀況中有很大改善嗎？只是比較變得容易多了。因此，我認為對於許多人來說，看到有機食品的削減顯然並不令人愉快。但如果你覺得下半年訂單有所改善，你可以稱之為暫時的。因為你與企業交談的方式是，這是一種臨時的宏觀環境。我知道打電話很難。我只是很好奇，您是否了解自己的發展方向以及如何管理公司到下半財年？聽起來您並不打算在今年下半年增加訂單。這是對你的管理方式的公平評估嗎？

Yes, David. I think that's fair. We would project that orders would continue to be weak because our orders, organic growth in orders are typically within a month or 2 of each other when you plot it historically. So for us, on inventory, inventory is never good. It's a waste when you're running a lean operation. So we're continuously -- whether we have volume going up or volume going down, we're looking to optimize inventory, period, all the time. And the kaizen efforts that we're doing and in unity with our Parker lean process, we'll continue to work at managing inventories down.

是的，大衛。我認為這是公平的。我們預計訂單將繼續疲軟，因為當您繪製歷史數據時，我們的訂單和訂單的有機增長通常會相差一到兩個月之內。所以對我們來說，在庫存方面，庫存從來都不是好事。當你進行精實營運時，這是一種浪費。因此，無論銷量增加還是銷量下降，我們都會不斷地尋求優化庫存。我們正在進行的改善工作與我們的帕克精益流程相結合，我們將繼續努力管理庫存。

Obviously, when orders go down, you need to update all your planning tools, your plan for every part, which is part of our lean system. So we're doing that. And then on pricing, I'll let Lee comment on pricing, what we're doing with that.

顯然，當訂單下降時，您需要更新所有計劃工具，每個部分的計劃，這是我們精實系統的一部分。所以我們正在這樣做。然後關於定價，我會讓 Lee 評論一下定價，以及我們正在做什麼。

Look, David, maybe I'll put price and cost together. I would say cost inputs, it's a mixed bag. There's some going down, some going up. But from a price/cost standpoint, as always, we just try to stay margin neutral, and that's what we're planning going forward.

大衛，聽著，也許我會把價格和成本放在一起。我想說的是成本投入，這是一個混合體。有的在下降，有的在上升。但從價格/成本的角度來看，一如既往，我們只是盡力保持利潤中性，這就是我們未來的計劃。

Okay. And just to make sure, just to wrap up here. The first quarter organic was in line with your expectations, maybe 20 bps even better. I actually thought the orders weren't even that bad in the first quarter relative to some of the fears out there. But then, obviously, you took a big chunk out of the rest of the year on organic sales and even your thoughts on orders. So the surprise, I guess, must have really been this last month that you really thought to see at least some beginning of bottoming process. So is that fair? It's really been the last month that really drove the change in the guide.

好的。只是為了確定一下，只是為了總結一下。第一季的自然成長率符合您的預期，甚至可能提高 20 個基點。事實上，我認為相對於外界的一些擔憂，第一季的訂單並沒有那麼糟。但顯然，你在今年剩下的時間裡花了很大一部分時間來關注有機銷售，甚至你對訂單的想法。因此，我想，令人驚訝的一定是上個月，您確實認為至少會看到觸底過程的開始。那麼這公平嗎？上個月確實推動了指南的改變。

David, it's Tom again. So there's 2 things. You're right, October, but then also the sequencing we saw within the quarter, the fact that August and September got worse from July. So we were starting to see a weakening through the quarter, then another step-down in October. That's why we changed the guide.

大衛，又是湯姆。所以有兩件事。你是對的，10 月，但我們在本季看到的順序也是如此，事實上 8 月和 9 月比 7 月變得更糟。因此，我們開始看到整個季度的疲軟，然後在 10 月再次下降。這就是我們更改指南的原因。

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。

Just a question on cash flow, and it's not more a question. But a lot of companies that do deals have shifted to reporting sort of cash earnings. Given a massive discrepancy between your cash flow generation and reported earnings, have you guys considered moving to reporting cash numbers? And what has the feedback been from your investors?

只是一個關於現金流的問題，而不是更多的問題。但許多進行交易的公司已轉向報告現金收益。鑑於您的現金流量產生與報告的收益之間存在巨大差異，您是否考慮過報告現金數字？投資人的回饋如何？

Yes. Andrew, it's Tom. It's a good question. We have thought about it and we have reached out to shareholders. And it's been pretty, pretty uniform from shareholder feedback saying, don't make that change, continue to -- obviously, we will adjust for onetime costs and the things that we normally have been doing. But other than that, continue to report on a GAAP basis.

是的。安德魯，是湯姆。這是一個好問題。我們已經考慮過這個問題，並且已經與股東進行了接觸。股東的回饋非常非常一致地表示，不要做出改變，繼續下去——顯然，我們將針對一次性成本和我們通常一直在做的事情進行調整。但除此之外，繼續依照公認會計原則進行報告。

And if you think about it, it creates a bigger hurdle that the business needs to absorb to generate returns on behalf of the shareholders. And I think that was the feedback I heard from shareholders is, we want you to incorporate that bigger challenge into how you run the place. But it's a good comment. I know there's been good companies that have made that change. At this point, we've elected to stay with what we've been doing.

如果你仔細想想，它會造成一個更大的障礙，企業需要克服這個障礙才能代表股東創造回報。我認為我從股東那裡聽到的回饋是，我們希望你將更大的挑戰納入你如何經營這個地方。但這是一個很好的評論。我知道已經有一些優秀的公司做出了這種改變。此時，我們選擇繼續我們一直在做的事情。

And then just a question. As your numbers have decelerated, what has the feedback been from LORD and Exotic? What have they experienced relative to expectations when you announced the deals?

然後只是一個問題。隨著你們的人數減少，LORD 和 Exotic 有何回饋？當您宣布交易時，他們的經驗與預期相比如何？

Yes. So Andrew, it's Tom again. So actually, they've held up really nicely. LORD, in the outlook that we've just given you, is coming at about a 4% organic growth. And we had in our model about 5.5%. That's what I verbally said during the announcement. That was kind of our 5-year CAGR. So if you think of everything that's going on that's changed from when we made that announcement to today, that's pretty good. And again, that 4% positive compares to minus 6% for Parker. That's why we like LORD so much. That's why we bought them. It's accretive from a growth standpoint.

是的。安德魯，又是湯姆。事實上，他們的表現非常好。主啊，根據我們剛剛向您提供的前景，有機增長率約為 4%。我們的模型中大約有 5.5%。這是我在公告中口頭說的。這就是我們的 5 年複合年增長率。因此，如果你想到從我們宣布這一消息到今天所發生的一切變化，那就很好了。再說一遍，帕克的 4% 為正值，而帕克為負 6%。這就是為什麼我們如此喜歡主。這就是我們購買它們的原因。從成長的角度來看，它是增值的。

And then when you look at Exotic. Exotic is coming in a little lower, 11.5%. In our model that we built for the DCF, we had about a 7.5% CAGR. So that's held up nicely. I would say 2 things, a little better F-35 sales and we modeled a more conservative 737 MAX. We modeled Exotic going down to 42, but Boeing has not done that yet with Exotic and probably won't because Exotic with its long lead time for materials. When you look at what Boeing's done when they're managing the supply chain, the rest of our aerospace is, for the most part at 42, but as they've managed long lead time type of suppliers, Exotic being one of those, they've kept them at 52 because of obvious reasons. You can't ramp back up with that kind of long lead time. So that's part of why they've overproduced on the revenue.

然後當你看異國情調。異國風情的比例略低，為 11.5%。在我們為 DCF 建構的模型中，複合年增長率約為 7.5%。所以這保持得很好。我想說兩件事，F-35 銷量好一點，我們設計了更保守的 737 MAX。我們將 Exotic 車型減少到 42 個，但波音尚未對 Exotic 做到這一點，而且可能不會，因為 Exotic 的材料交付時間較長。當你看到波音公司在管理供應鏈時所做的事情時，我們的航空航天業的其餘部分大部分都在42 家，但由於他們管理的是交貨時間較長的供應商，Exotic 就是其中之一，他們由於明顯的原因，我們將它們保持在 52。你不可能在這麼長的準備時間內恢復生產。這就是他們收入過剩的部分原因。

So in a nutshell, both acquisitions holding up on revenue, both acquisitions coming in at the EBITDA level that we expected. Actually, LORD, slightly better on EBITDA margins because we pulled in $15 million. The $15 million that Cathy referred to in her comments is the synergies for LORD. And we're able to pull them a little bit earlier than we thought.

簡而言之，兩項收購都維持了收入，兩項收購都達到了我們預期的 EBITDA 水準。事實上，LORD，EBITDA 利潤率略好一些，因為我們賺了 1500 萬美元。Cathy 在她的評論中提到的 1500 萬美元是 Lord 的協同效應。我們能夠比我們想像的更早拉動它們。

And if I may squeeze just one in. Auto exposure with LORD, you did comment that auto is bottoming. Was that referring to sort of the old Parker exposure or was that referring to LORD's exposure as well? And that will be it for me.

如果我可以只擠一根進去的話。汽車與耶和華的曝光，你確實評論說汽車正在觸底。這是指舊的帕克曝光還是指洛德的曝光？我就這樣了。

That was total Parker. That was based on Q1. So we didn't have LORD in Q1. But their auto has held up better than our auto has so pretty comparable.

這就是帕克的全部。這是基於 Q1 的。所以我們在 Q1 中沒有 Lord。但他們的汽車比我們的汽車表現得更好，非常具有可比性。

Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券的安迪凱西。

I just wanted to go back to the decrementals that you talked about, Tom. Were those all-in including the acquisitions or were those Parker legacy?

我只是想回到你談到的減量，湯姆。這些是包括收購在內的全部投資還是帕克的遺產？

Parker legacy without the acquisitions. Andy, trying to do it with the acquisitions is apples and oranges. Acquisitions are not in the prior period. We've got the $100 million of intangible amortization. So the MROSes when you look at it all-in versus prior are basically are nonsensical. You can't really read anything into it, which is why I gave you the ones without it.

沒有收購的帕克遺產。安迪，試圖透過收購來做到這一點是蘋果和橘子。收購不在前期。我們有 1 億美元的無形攤銷。因此，當你全面審視 MROS 與之前的情況時，你會發現 MROS 基本上是無意義的。你無法真正讀懂其中的任何內容，這就是為什麼我給你那些沒有它的內容。

Okay. Okay. I appreciate that. And then basically, over the long term, you had talked about 30% incrementals. The decrementals you gave were lower than that, which is good. When you embed the 2 new acquisitions that seem to be a little bit similar to CLARCOR, a little bit more resilient, would the downside over the long term relative to the mid to high 20% decremental that you gave kind of even shrink further?

好的。好的。我很感激。然後基本上，從長遠來看，您談到了 30% 的增量。您給出的減量低於該值，這很好。當您嵌入與 CLARCOR 有點相似且更具彈性的 2 項新收購時，相對於您給出的中高 20% 的遞減，長期來看，下降幅度是否會進一步縮小？

Well, I think there's definitely that potential because, to your point, they will be more resilient. They're higher margins as well so they should help us with that. And we're going to work to make them even better than they are today. The whole goal is, is to take the best of what we do and the best of -- and of course, now we is now all of us -- and the best of what the acquisitions had and make it even better. So I still think, again, for purposes of modeling, I don't want to get too far over my skis, I would just encourage you to continue to use the plus and minus 30%. It's still best-in-class. And of course, our goal is to try to do better than that.

嗯，我認為肯定有這種潛力，因為就你而言，它們會更有彈性。他們的利潤率也較高，因此他們應該在這方面幫助我們。我們將努力讓它們變得比今天更好。整個目標是，充分利用我們所做的事情和最好的東西——當然，現在我們是我們所有人——以及收購所擁有的最好的東西，並使其變得更好。所以我仍然認為，出於建模的目的，我不想超出我的滑雪板範圍，我只是鼓勵您繼續使用正負 30%。它仍然是同類中最好的。當然，我們的目標是努力做得更好。

Our final question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的最後一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeff Sprague。

Just 2 from me, if you don't mind. Just first, back on the acquisitions. At the time they were announced, I thought LORD's run rate sales were about $1.1 billion and Exotic was about $450 million. And when I look at what you laid out here, it looks like they're both actually kind of on an annualized basis tracking flattish, not up. Is there something in timing or do I have those basis wrong?

如果你不介意的話，我就給你2個。首先，回到收購。在宣布這些消息時，我認為 Lord 的運行銷售額約為 11 億美元，Exotic 約為 4.5 億美元。當我看到你在這裡列出的內容時，看起來它們實際上都在年化基礎上持平，而不是上漲。是時間安排有問題還是我的基礎有誤？

Jeff, it's Tom. I think the main thing I would add, when we gave it, it was based on calendar year over calendar year. Now these numbers are in Parker's fiscal year so the prior periods are not comparable.

傑夫，是湯姆。我想我要補充的主要內容是，當我們給出它時，它是基於日曆年的。現在這些數字屬於帕克的財政年度，因此之前的時期不具有可比性。

Those growth rates you gave us though, Tom, were for the year in your plan or just in the quarter, those organic?

湯姆，你給我們的那些成長率是你計畫中的一年的成長率還是僅在季度的成長率，那些有機的？

Yes. The growth rates I gave, Jeff, are for our FY '20. So it'd be comparing the period of time they're in part of Parker, our FY '20, and then using the same Parker fiscal year in FY '19. That is the way to go back and kind of reconstitute that with the 2 acquisitions.

是的。傑夫，我給的成長率是針對我們 20 財年的。因此，它將比較他們在 Parker 的一部分的時間段，即我們的 20 財年，然後在 19 財年使用相同的 Parker 財政年度。這就是透過兩次收購來重新建構的方式。

And then just one other question on incrementals, if you don't mind. And perhaps it goes to the FX point you were making, Tom. But the decline in 6% organic sales decline, right, is about $650 million in sales. I think Cathy said $800 million, if I think about it on a core basis. And $1.44 of EPS headwind would gross up to like $230 million. So that's like a 35% decremental on the core business, if I think about it relative to the walk that you gave us where you showed kind of legacy Parker versus the deals. Am I missing something there or is it FX?

如果您不介意的話，那麼還有一個關於增量的問題。湯姆，也許這與你正在製作的外匯點有關。但有機銷售額下降 6%（右），銷售額約 6.5 億美元。如果我從核心角度考慮的話，我認為凱西說的是 8 億美元。每股收益 1.44 美元的逆風將導致總收益達到約 2.3 億美元。因此，如果我考慮您向我們展示帕克遺留的交易與交易的情況，那麼這就像核心業務減少了 35%。我是否遺漏了一些東西，或者是 FX？

Yes. Yes, Jeff, it's the FX differential. So the number I quoted was top line total drop that we had in our guidance for the second, third and fourth quarters. And when you're quoting organic, you're probably correct that it's closer to $600 million.

是的。是的，傑夫，這是外匯差價。因此，我引用的數字是我們在第二、第三和第四季的指導中得出的總收入下降幅度。當您引用有機產品時，您可能是正確的，它接近 6 億美元。

All right. This concludes our Q&A and our earnings call. Thank you to everyone for joining us today. Robin and Jeff will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have any further questions. Everyone, have a great day. Thank you.

好的。我們的問答和財報電話會議到此結束。感謝大家今天加入我們。如果您還有任何其他問題，羅賓和傑夫將全天接聽您的電話。大家，祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。