派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin's Fiscal 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾 2019 財年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員說明）

As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，財務長Cathy Suever。請繼續。

Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, and welcome to Parker Hannifin's Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Release Teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks.

謝謝你，喬納森。早安，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾 2019 財年第三季財報發布電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯 (Tom Williams)；李‧班克斯 (Lee Banks) 總裁兼營運長。

Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for 1 year following today's call.

今天的簡報幻燈片以及音訊網路廣播重播將在今天的電話會議後一年內透過公司的投資者資訊網站 phstock.com 提供。

On Slides 2 and 3, you'll find the company's safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations or any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com.

在投影片 2 和 3 中，您將找到該公司的安全港揭露聲明，其中涉及前瞻性聲明以及非 GAAP 財務指標。今天早上的新聞稿中包含了調節表或任何對非公認會計準則財務指標的提及，並且也發佈在 Parker 的網站 phstock.com 上。

Today's agenda appears on Slide #4. To begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide comments and highlights from the third quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's third quarter performance, together with the guidance for the full year fiscal 2019. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session.

今天的議程出現在幻燈片#4 上。首先，我們的董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯將提供第三季的評論和亮點。根據 Tom 的評論，我將回顧該公司第三季的業績，以及 2019 財年全年的指導。然後，湯姆將提供一些總結性意見，我們將開始問答環節。

Please refer now to Slide 5. Tom will get us started.

現在請參閱投影片 5。湯姆將帶領我們開始。

Thank you, Cathy, and good morning, everybody. And thanks for your interest in Parker. We had a very strong performance in the quarter, but before I jump into the quarter, I'd like to take you back for a few seconds here to 2015.

謝謝你，凱西，大家早安。感謝您對帕克的興趣。我們在本季的表現非常強勁，但在進入本季之前，我想先帶大家回顧一下 2015 年。

We had launched a new Win Strategy and our first generation of 5-year goals. And if you remember, one of our key goals that we had at that time was to get to 17% operating margin by [2020]. And I kind of remember that meeting, we also got feedback that perhaps it might be too aggressive, but we're excited to tell you that we've achieved that goal basically about 18 months early. And that included doing the CLARCOR acquisition during that period of time. So really a remarkable accomplishment, and my thanks to everybody around the world, the Parker team, for that huge accomplishment ahead of schedule.

我們推出了新的勝利策略和第一代五年目標。如果你還記得的話，我們當時的主要目標之一是到 [2020 年] 實現 17% 的營業利潤率。我還記得那次會議，我們也收到了回饋，認為這可能過於激進，但我們很高興地告訴大家，我們基本上提前了大約 18 個月就實現了這一目標。其中包括在那段時間收購 CLARCOR。這確實是一項了不起的成就，我感謝世界各地的每一個人，帕克團隊，提前取得了這一巨大成就。

So you might be asking, how? How did we do that? And it comes directly from the slide that's up there, Slide 5, describing our business model and the competitive differentiators that we have. And if you look at that, it's really a powerful lineup, and that list represents what makes us different. It strategically positions us versus our competitors and helps to answer the question why would you invest in Parker, why would you buy from Parker and why would you work at Parker. So I like to show this every quarter, but I'm only going to pick one bullet to go over to give you some extra color.

那你可能會問，怎麼辦？我們是怎麼做到的？它直接來自上面的幻燈片，幻燈片 5，描述了我們的商業模式和我們擁有的競爭優勢。如果你看一下，你會發現這確實是一個強大的陣容，這個清單代表了我們的不同之處。它從策略上定位我們與競爭對手的關係，並有助於回答以下問題：您為什麼要投資 Parker、為什麼要從 Parker 購買產品以及為什麼要在 Parker 工作。所以我喜歡每個季度都會展示這一點，但我只會挑選一個項目來給你一些額外的色彩。

And let's talk about the operating CapEx requirements of the company. If you go back before The Win Strategy started, we were basically a 6% CapEx to sales company, and today, we bounce in that 1.5% to 2%. How we did that is we implemented a Parker Lean System, value stream transformations, waste-reduction efforts. And by doing that, we've freed up floorspace, machine and people capacity, and that enabled us to free up basically 400 basis points of free cash flow, which you can imagine what we can do with 400 basis points of free cash flow. Deploy it as effectively as we can back to our shareholders has been a big part of our success over the last decade or so.

我們來談談公司的營運資本支出要求。如果你回顧一下「致勝策略」開始之前，我們基本上是一家銷售公司的資本支出為 6% 的公司，而今天，我們的資本支出在 1.5% 到 2% 之間反彈。我們是如何做到這一點的，我們實施了帕克精實系統、價值流轉型和減少浪費的努力。透過這樣做，我們釋放了佔地面積、機器和人員容量，這使我們能夠釋放基本上 400 個基點的自由現金流，你可以想像我們可以用 400 個基點的自由現金流做什麼。在過去十年左右的時間裡，盡可能有效地將其部署回饋給股東是我們成功的重要組成部分。

So let's go ahead and jump into takeaways from the quarter. Safety continues to be our top priority. We had 20% reduction in recordable incidents. We continue on about that 20% clip, and it's really making great progress. My thanks to our team members around the world for their ownership on safety. Remember the connection between safety performance, engagement and financial performances are clear linkage between all those.

因此，讓我們繼續討論本季的要點。安全仍然是我們的首要任務。我們的可記錄事件減少了 20%。我們繼續那個 20% 的剪輯，它確實取得了巨大的進步。我感謝我們世界各地的團隊成員對安全的責任感。請記住，安全績效、敬業度和財務績效之間的連結是所有這些之間的明確連結。

We had strong operational quarter, reflecting the benefits of The Win Strategy. And we put up a number of quarterly records, segment operating margins, net income and EPS. And our compliments remain very strong for achieving record performance in FY '19. Again, a big thank you to all the Parker team members out there for the great progress and all the hard work.

我們的季度營運表現強勁，反映出「制勝策略」的優勢。我們也公佈了一些季度記錄、部門營業利潤率、淨利潤和每股收益。我們對 19 財年實現創紀錄的業績表示強烈的讚揚。再次非常感謝帕克團隊的所有成員所取得的巨大進步和辛勤工作。

So some highlights on the quarter. Organic growth came in approximately 2%, offset by currency and divestiture. Our order rates did moderate, bumping up against some tough comparables, growth moderating and North America distributors destocking. Of course, we'll discuss that more in the Q&A portion of the call.

本季度的一些亮點。有機成長約 2%，但被貨幣和資產剝離所抵消。我們的訂單率確實有所放緩，與一些艱難的可比公司相比有所上升，增長放緩，北美分銷商減少庫存。當然，我們將在電話會議的問答部分對此進行更多討論。

EPS and net income were all-time records. Segment operating margins was an all-time record at 17.1%. And adjusted total segment operating margins were 17.2%, up 90 basis points versus prior year. And we saw improvement across all of our reporting segments.

每股盈餘和淨利創歷史新高。分部營業利益率創歷史新高，達 17.1%。調整後的分部總營業利益率為 17.2%，較上年成長 90 個基點。我們看到所有報告部門都取得了進步。

Aerospace posted an all-time record of 20.7% segment operating margin for the quarter, and a big thank you to the Aerospace team for their great work. We've seen really nice returns from past investments in Aerospace, which is a long-cycle business that's performing at a very high level and that utilizes all of our motion control technologies into that space.

航空航天部門本季的營業利潤率創下了 20.7% 的歷史記錄，非常感謝航空航天團隊的出色工作。我們從過去對航空航太的投資中看到了非常好的回報，這是一項長週期業務，表現非常高，並將我們所有的運動控制技術運用到該領域。

Our as-reported EBITDA margin was up 150 basis points to 18.6% or 18.7% adjusted. And we had very strong cash flow, operating cash flow of 12.1%, excluding discretionary pension contribution. Free cash flow conversion was 104%.

我們報告的 EBITDA 利潤率成長了 150 個基點，達到 18.6%，調整後為 18.7%。我們的現金流非常強勁，營運現金流為 12.1%，不包括可自由支配的退休金繳款。自由現金流轉換率為104%。

So in summary, an excellent quarter with a number of records.

總而言之，這是一個出色的季度，創造了多項記錄。

Switching to capital deployment. Last week, we announced a 16% increase in our dividend, and we've now made dividend increases for 63 consecutive fiscal years. It's a record we're very proud of and a record we intend to keep as we go into the future. We also continued our 10b5-1 repurchase program of $50 million in Parker shares, and we made an opportunistic discretionary purchase of $150 million in shares, which we initiated immediately after our second quarter blackout period finished and before the LORD acquisition process started.

轉向資本配置。上週，我們宣布將股利增加 16%，目前我們已連續 63 個財年增加股利。這是我們非常自豪的記錄，也是我們在走向未來時打算保持的記錄。我們也繼續執行10b5-1 回購計劃，回購價值5,000 萬美元的Parker 股票，並視情況購買價值1.5 億美元的股票，這是我們在第二季禁售期結束後、LORD 收購流程開始之前立即啟動的。

And of course, on Monday, we announced the agreement to acquire LORD Corporation for $3.675 billion, and LORD is approximately a $1.1 billion business, 23% EBITDA and a leader in material science and vibration control technologies.

當然，週一，我們宣布同意以36.75 億美元收購洛德公司，洛德公司是一家價值約11 億美元的企業，息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA) 為23%，是材料科學和振動控制技術領域的領導者。

And if I could, just as a reminder, in case some people didn't listen in on the call on Monday, what the strategic rationale was behind that acquisition, this is a strategic portfolio transaction which significantly expands our Engineered Materials business. It has complementary products, markets and geographies that are aligned to key growth trends. And it's very culturally aligned with Parker's values and has a rich history of innovation and product reliability.

如果可以的話，我想提醒一下，萬一有人沒有聽週一的電話會議，那次收購背後的戰略理由是什麼，這是一項戰略性投資組合交易，將顯著擴大我們的工程材料業務。它擁有與主要成長趨勢一致的互補產品、市場和地理。它在文化上與派克的價值觀非常一致，並且擁有豐富的創新和產品可靠性歷史。

Strong global brands with long-standing blue-chip customer list that is very similar to our customer list, strengthens material science capabilities, electrification, light-weighting and Aerospace offerings and is expected to be accretive to organic sales growth, EBITDA margin and cash flow and EPS, excluding onetime costs and deal-related amortization.

強大的全球品牌，擁有與我們的客戶名單非常相似的長期藍籌客戶名單，增強了材料科學能力、電氣化、輕量化和航空航天產品，預計將促進有機銷售增長、EBITDA 利潤率和現金流和每股收益，不包括一次性成本和與交易相關的攤銷。

So moving now to the outlook. We're maintaining EPS guidance midpoint of $11.32 as reported and $11.60 adjusted. The -- our forecasted organic growth range is in that 2% to 3% for the full fiscal year. And we're anticipating record earnings in FY '19 due to The Win Strategy execution.

現在轉向展望。我們維持每股收益指引中點 11.32 美元（如報告）和調整後的 11.60 美元。我們預測整個財年的有機成長範圍為 2% 至 3%。由於「獲勝策略」的執行，我們預計 19 財年的獲利將創歷史新高。

We are really in a great position to perform regardless of how the macro environment turns out. And there's a number of positives that are going to serve as a tailwind to our performance as you look forward for the next several years. The first is, we're still early days of the new Win Strategy and execution. And you can see the progress we've made just in the first 5 years of that 15% to 17% and the CLARCOR acquisition. So lots of headroom for -- as we continue to improve with The Win Strategy.

無論宏觀環境如何，我們都確實處於有利的位置。當您展望未來幾年時，有許多積極因素將成為我們業績的推動力。首先，我們仍處於新的獲勝策略和執行的早期階段。您可以看到我們在 15% 至 17% 以及 CLARCOR 收購的前 5 年所取得的進展。當我們繼續改進「獲勝策略」時，還有很大的空間。

Integration of CLARCOR is showing lots of promise with upside to continue the upside to margins as we continue to improve on the manufacturing consolidation. And the LORD Corporation brings a top-quartile performing company into the portfolio that has attractive technologies and materials science, vibration controls and will generate that incremental organic growth margin of cash flow that I referred to earlier.

隨著我們繼續改進製造整合，CLARCOR 的整合顯示出很大的前景，可以繼續提高利潤率。洛德公司將一家業績排名前四分之一的公司納入投資組合，該公司擁有有吸引力的技術和材料科學、振動控制，並將產生我之前提到的現金流的增量有機成長率。

So we continue to have confidence in reaching our second set of financial targets, the ones we set for FY '23. And those are, just to remind everybody, to grow organically 150 basis points faster than the market to achieve segment operating margins of 19%, EBITDA margins of 20%, continue our free cash flow conversion of greater than 100%. And this would all yield an EPS CAGR of 10% plus over the time period.

因此，我們仍然對實現我們為 23 財年設定的第二組財務目標充滿信心。只是提醒大家，有機成長速度比市場快 150 個基點，實現部門營業利潤率 19%，EBITDA 利潤率 20%，繼續我們的自由現金流轉換超過 100%。在此期間，這一切都將使 EPS 複合年增長率達到 10% 以上。

So in sum, we anticipate another record year for FY '19, and we're making progress towards that second generation of 5-year targets.

總而言之，我們預計 19 財年將再創歷史新高，並且我們正在朝著第二代 5 年目標取得進展。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Cathy for more details on the quarter.

這樣，我會將其交還給凱西，以了解有關本季度的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Tom. I'd like you to now refer to Slide #7. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter.

謝謝，湯姆。我希望您現在參考幻燈片#7。我將首先討論本季的每股收益。

Adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2019 increased 13% compared to the prior year, reaching $3.17. Adjustments from the 2019 as-reported results are business realignment expenses of $0.03. This compares to fiscal 2018 adjustments of $0.04 for business realignment expenses and $0.06 for CLARCOR costs to achieve.

2019財年第三季調整後每股盈餘較上年成長13%，達3.17美元。2019 年報告結果的調整包括 0.03 美元的業務調整費用。相較之下，2018 財年業務調整費用調整為 0.04 美元，CLARCOR 成本調整為 0.06 美元。

On Slide 8, you'll find the significant components of the $0.37 walk from adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 for the third quarter of fiscal 2018 to $3.17 for the third quarter of this year. The most significant increase came from higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.15. The Aerospace segment generated 26% more income in 2019 with meaningful organic growth and considerably higher margins. The Diversified Industrial segments generated consistent year-over-year income with higher margins despite declining revenues.

在投影片 8 上，您會發現從 2018 財年第三季調整後每股收益 2.80 美元到今年第三季 3.17 美元的 0.37 美元變動的重要組成部分。最顯著的成長來自於調整後的部門營業收入提高了 0.15 美元。2019 年，航空航天部門的收入增加了 26%，實現了有意義的有機成長，利潤率也大幅提高。儘管收入下降，多元化工業部門仍產生了穩定的年收入和較高的利潤率。

Lower corporate G&A accounted for a $0.12 increase driven by market-adjusted investments tied to deferred compensation. Lower interest expense and higher other expense lowered earnings per share a net $0.01, and lower average shares resulted in an increase of $0.11.

受與遞延薪酬相關的市場調整投資的推動，企業 G&A 下降導致 0.12 美元的成長。較低的利息費用和較高的其他費用使每股淨收益減少了 0.01 美元，而平均股數的下降導致每股收益增加了 0.11 美元。

Slide 9 shows total Parker segment sales and segment operating margin for the third quarter. Total company organic sales in the third quarter increased year-over-year by 1.8%. This was negatively offset by 3% of currency impact and 0.5% from a prior year divestiture.

幻燈片 9 顯示了第三季 Parker 部門的總銷售額和部門營業利潤率。第三季公司總有機銷售額年增 1.8%。這被 3% 的貨幣影響和上一年資產剝離的 0.5% 的負面影響所抵消。

Total segment operating margin on an adjusted basis improved to 17.2% compared to 16.3% for the same quarter last year. This 90 basis point improvement reflects productivity improvements and the benefits of synergies from acquisitions combined with the positive impact from our Win Strategy initiatives.

調整後的部門總營業利潤率從去年同期的 16.3% 提高至 17.2%。這項 90 個基點的改進反映了生產力的提高、收購帶來的協同效應以及我們的獲勝策略舉措的正面影響。

Moving to Slide 10. I'll discuss the business segments starting with Diversified Industrial North America.

轉到投影片 10。我將從北美多元化工業開始討論業務部門。

For the third quarter, North America organic sales were relatively flat as compared to the same quarter last year. With flat sales, operating margin for the third quarter on an adjusted basis was 16.5% of sales versus 16.4% in the prior year. A onetime labor settlement in Mexico and a less favorable mix put pressure on margins in the quarter. Despite these headwinds, North America continued to deliver improved margins, which reflects the hard work dedicated to productivity improvements as well as synergies from acquisitions and the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives.

第三季度，北美有機銷售額與去年同期相比相對持平。由於銷售額持平，第三季調整後的營業利潤率的 16.5%，去年同期為 16.4%。墨西哥的一次勞資和解以及不太有利的組合給本季的利潤率帶來了壓力。儘管存在這些不利因素，北美地區的利潤率仍持續提高，這反映了致力於提高生產力的辛勤工作以及收購帶來的協同效應以及我們的勝利策略舉措的影響。

I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide 11. Organic sales for the third quarter in the Industrial International segment increased by 0.7%. Currency negatively impacted the quarter by 7.5%, and a prior year divestiture accounted for 0.7% loss of sales. On relatively flat sales, operating margin for the third quarter on an adjusted basis improved 120 basis points to 16.5% of sales. This margin performance reflects our team's continued progress in growing distribution, along with improved operating cost efficiencies from realignment initiatives and the benefits of The Win Strategy.

我將繼續幻燈片 11 上的多元化工業國際部分。工業國際部門第三季的有機銷售額成長了 0.7%。貨幣對本季產生了 7.5% 的負面影響，上一年的資產剝離導致銷售額損失 0.7%。由於銷售額相對持平，第三季調整後的營業利潤率提高了 120 個基點，佔銷售額的 16.5%。這一利潤率表現反映了我們團隊在不斷增長的分銷方面取得的持續進展，以及重組舉措帶來的營運成本效率的提高以及獲勝策略的好處。

I'll now move to Slide 12 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues increased an impressive 9.2% during the third quarter due to continued, broad-based growth across all Aerospace markets. Operating margin for the third quarter improved an impressive 260 basis points to 20.7% of sales, reflecting the benefits of higher volume, lower development costs and cost efficiencies from The Win Strategy initiatives.

我現在將轉到幻燈片 12 來回顧航空航天系統部分。由於所有航空航太市場持續廣泛的成長，第三季有機收入成長了 9.2%，令人印象深刻。第三季的營業利潤率顯著提高了 260 個基點，佔銷售額的 20.7%，反映出「勝利策略」計畫帶來的銷售增加、開發成本降低和成本效率提高的好處。

Moving to Slide 13. We show the details of order rates by segment. Total orders decreased by 4% as of the quarter end. This year-over-year decline is a consolidation of minus 6% from Diversified Industrial North America orders, minus 4% from Diversified Industrial International orders and a positive 2% from Aerospace Systems orders.

轉到投影片 13。我們按細分顯示訂單率的詳細資訊。截至本季末，訂單總數下降 4%。與去年同期相比，多元化工業北美訂單下降了-6%，多元化工業國際訂單下降了4%，航空航天系統訂單下降了2%。

On Slide 14, we report cash flow from operating activities. We had strong cash flow this quarter. Year-to-date, cash flow from operating activities was $1.093 billion. When adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution made during the first quarter, cash flow from operations was 12.1% of sales. This compares to 8.6% of sales for the same period last year.

在投影片 14 中，我們報告了經營活動產生的現金流量。本季我們的現金流強勁。年初至今，經營活動現金流量為10.93億美元。根據第一季 2 億美元的可自由支配退休金繳款進行調整後，營運現金流佔銷售額的 12.1%。相比之下，去年同期的銷售額為 8.6%。

The revised full year earnings guidance for fiscal 2019 is outlined on Slide 15. Guidance is being provided on both an as-reported and an adjusted basis.

投影片 15 概述了修訂後的 2019 財年全年獲利指引。正在根據報告和調整後的基礎上提供指導。

Total sales for the year are now expected to be relatively flat compared to the prior year within a range of minus 0.4% to plus 0.6%. Anticipated organic growth for the full year is forecasted in the range of 2% to 3% or 2.5% at the midpoint. The prior year divestiture negatively impacts sales by 0.4%, and currency is expected to have a negative 2.1% impact. We've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended March 31. We have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remainder of this fiscal year.

目前預計今年的總銷售額與上年相比將相對持平，增幅介於負 0.4% 至正 0.6% 之間。預計全年有機成長在 2% 至 3% 之間，中間為 2.5%。上一年的資產剝離對銷售額產生了 0.4% 的負面影響，預計匯率將產生 2.1% 的負面影響。我們計算了截至 3 月 31 日的季度貨幣對即期匯率的影響。當我們估計本財年剩餘時間所產生的年比影響時，我們維持這些利率穩定。

You can see the forecasted as-reported and adjusted operating margins by segment. Total Parker margins are forecasted to increase approximately 100 basis points from prior year, reaching an adjusted range of 17.0% to 17.4% for the full fiscal year.

您可以按部門查看預測的報告和調整後的營業利潤率。Parker 總利潤率預計將比前一年增加約 100 個基點，調整後的整個財年範圍將達到 17.0% 至 17.4%。

The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. This anticipates a tax rate -- tax expense run rate of 23.5% for the fourth quarter. For the full year, the guidance range on an as-reported earnings per share basis is now $11.17 to $11.47 or $11.32 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is now $11.45 to $11.75 or $11.60 at the midpoint.

全年有效稅率預計為23%。預計第四季的稅率—稅收費用運行率為 23.5%。就全年而言，基於報告的每股收益的指導範圍目前為 11.17 美元至 11.47 美元，中間值為 11.32 美元。在調整後每股收益的基礎上，指導範圍目前為 11.45 美元至 11.75 美元，中間值為 11.60 美元。

The adjustments to the as-reported forecast made in this guidance include business realignment expenses of approximately $16 million or $0.09 per share for the full year fiscal 2019 with the associated savings projected to be $10 million. The guidance on an adjusted basis also excludes $14 million or $0.08 per share of CLARCOR cost-to-achieve expenses. CLARCOR synergy savings are estimated to achieve a run rate of $125 million by the end of fiscal '19, which represents an incremental $75 million of run rate savings in fiscal '19.

本指南中對報告預測的調整包括 2019 財年全年約 1,600 萬美元或每股 0.09 美元的業務調整費用，相關節省預計為 1,000 萬美元。調整後的指引還排除了 1400 萬美元或每股 0.08 美元的 CLARCOR 成本實現費用。預計到 19 財年末，CLARCOR 協同節省將實現 1.25 億美元的運行率，這意味著 19 財年的運行率節省增量為 7,500 萬美元。

We remain on track to realize the forecasted $160 million run rate synergy savings and $100 million revenue synergies by fiscal '20.

我們仍有望在 20 財年實現預計 1.6 億美元的運行率協同節省和 1 億美元的營收綜效。

And finally, guidance on an adjusted basis also excludes $0.11 per share for the second quarter tax expense related to U.S. Tax Reform. This forecast does not include any results from our announced acquisition of LORD Corporation or any other acquisitions or divestitures that might close during the remainder of fiscal 2019. In August, we will give you an update on our projections for LORD but we will not include LORD's results in our guidance until we have closed the transaction. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison.

最後，調整後的指引也排除了與美國稅制改革相關的第二季每股 0.11 美元的稅收費用。該預測不包括我們宣布的收購 Lord Corporation 的任何結果，也不包括可能在 2019 財年剩餘時間內完成的任何其他收購或剝離。8 月，我們將向您提供有關 Lord 預測的最新信息，但在交易結束之前，我們不會將 Lord 的結果納入我們的指導中。我們要求您繼續使用調整後的指導來發布您的估計，以便提供更一致的同比比較。

On Slide 16, you'll find the components of our full year guidance relative to the outperformance in the third quarter versus our initial guidance going into the quarter. Actual third quarter earnings per share on an adjusted basis were $0.18 higher than previously guided due to $0.04 driven by excellent operating results, lower net corporate G&A interest and other expense of $0.07, lower income tax expense of $0.06 and fewer shares outstanding contributing $0.01. For the balance of the year, we are projecting $0.16 per share lower segment operating income due to anticipated lower volume and $0.04 per share higher net corporate G&A interest and other expense. We expect these to be partially offset by $0.01 from lower taxes and $0.01 from lower shares outstanding.

在投影片 16 上，您將看到我們的全年指引的各個組成部分，其中第三季的表現優於我們進入本季的初始指引。調整後的第三季實際每股收益比先前指導的高出0.18 美元，原因是出色的經營業績、公司總務及行政費用淨額和其他費用減少0.07 美元、所得稅費用減少0.06 美元以及貢獻0.01 美元的流通股減少，導致每股盈餘增加0.04 美元。今年餘下的時間，我們預計由於銷量下降，每股營業收入將減少 0.16 美元，而公司管理及行政費用淨額和其他費用將增加每股 0.04 美元。我們預計這些費用將被稅收降低 0.01 美元和流通股減少 0.01 美元部分抵消。

This concludes my prepared comments. Tom, I'll turn the call back to you for your summary comments.

我準備好的評論到此結束。湯姆，我會將電話轉回給您，以獲取您的摘要意見。

Thanks, Cathy. So we're very pleased with the continued progress. We've got much room for improvement still with The Win Strategy. And with a solid execution to date, we are projecting record earnings for fiscal 2019. And we feel that we're well on our way to being a top-quartile financial performing company.

謝謝，凱茜。因此，我們對持續取得的進展感到非常高興。我們的獲勝策略還有很大的進步空間。憑藉迄今為止穩健的執行力，我們預計 2019 財年的獲利將創歷史新高。我們認為，我們正在努力成為一家財務表現排名前四分之一的公司。

Again, my thank you to the global team for all their hard work and their dedication to Parker.

我再次感謝全球團隊的辛勤工作和對帕克的奉獻。

And with that, Jonathan, I'll hand it over to you to start the Q&A portion of the call.

接下來，喬納森，我將把它交給你來開始電話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Nathan Jones。

Just like to start Industrial North America on their margin profile here. I would have expected a little better number there this quarter. I mean margins are pretty flat, volume's pretty flat. But you should have had some improvement on getting rid of some of the geopolitical costs from CLARCOR next year, some accrual of cost synergies from the CLARCOR acquisition. So just any color you can give us on what the offsets were there this quarter.

就像在這裡啟動工業北美公司的利潤概況。我本來預計本季會有更好的數字。我的意思是利潤率相當平淡，銷售量也相當平淡。但明年你應該在擺脫 CLARCOR 的一些地緣政治成本方面取得一些進展，從 CLARCOR 收購中獲得一些成本協同效應。因此，您可以為我們提供有關本季偏移量的任何顏色。

Yes. Nathan. It's Tom. So there's a couple headwinds that we ran into for the quarter that really masked some pretty good performance by North America. Specifically, Cathy referred to it a little bit in her comments. We had a onetime labor settlement in Mexico, which is about $5 million. This was -- in case people aren't familiar with it, there was about 35 companies that were impacted, they were the maquiladora range region of the country. And there was a onetime labor settlement to settle a union strike that impacted all 35 companies, and that was about $5 million.

是的。內森。是湯姆。因此，我們在本季遇到了一些阻力，這些阻力確實掩蓋了北美的一些相當好的表現。具體來說，凱茜在她的評論中提到了一點。我們在墨西哥達成了一次性勞資協議，金額約 500 萬美元。如果人們不熟悉的話，大約有 35 家公司受到了影響，它們位於該國的加工工廠範圍內。為了解決影響所有 35 家公司的工會罷工，還達成了一項一次性勞資和解協議，金額約為 500 萬美元。

The other is that we saw a marked shift versus our guide in the distribution mix. So we saw destocking of about 300 basis points of impact on the top line on distribution. So we had much less distribution volume than we had expected. And of course, everybody recognizes the difference in margins between distribution and OEM.

另一個是我們發現發行組合與我們的指南相比發生了顯著變化。因此，我們看到庫存減少約 300 個基點，對分銷收入產生了影響。所以我們的發行量比我們預期的少很多。當然，每個人都認識到分銷和 OEM 之間的利潤差異。

And then while we were flat to prior year in volume, we were soft to the guide that we gave you. And so those 3 things together, we were light by about 100 basis points to our guide in North America, and that was -- and that's what makes up the 100 basis points. So without that, and these are some pretty unique things that happened. We -- of course, we couldn't foresee the Mexico labor thing when we did the guide or the mix in volume shift. So without that, I was -- I felt very good about how North America performed, minus that, and those are one-off type of things that shouldn't repeat. Other than the distribution destocking, from what we can tell looking at our trend lines, it's going to continue into Q4, but just not quite the same kind of destocking rate.

然後，雖然我們的銷售量與上一年持平，但我們對我們給您的指南持軟態度。因此，將這三件事加在一起，我們比北美指南低了約 100 個基點，這就是 100 個基點的組成部分。因此，如果沒有這些，就會發生一些非常獨特的事情。當然，當我們製作指南或混合音量變化時，我們無法預見墨西哥勞動力的情況。因此，如果沒有這些，我對北美的表現感覺非常好，除此之外，這些都是一次性的事情，不應該重複。除了分銷去庫存之外，從我們的趨勢線來看，這種情況將持續到第四季度，但去庫存的速度並不完全相同。

Okay. So the destocking of distributors is going to have a somewhat negative impact on the mix there for North America in 4Q as well?

好的。那麼經銷商的去庫存也會對第四季北美的產品組合產生一定的負面影響嗎？

Yes. And we -- but that's reflected in our guide. We have that in the guide. And our guide for Q4 is 18.1%. So still pretty nice margins for Q4 in North America, and it'll be better in prior year by 30 bps. But yes, it'll still wait on North America a little bit.

是的。我們——但這反映在我們的指南中。我們在指南中對此進行了說明。我們對第四季的指引是 18.1%。因此，北美第四季的利潤率仍然相當不錯，比去年同期提高了 30 個基點。但是，是的，它仍然會在北美等待一段時間。

Got it. Then maybe if we just broaden out the North American margin discussion for the full year. You're at 20 basis points of margin expansion at the midpoint of your guidance now. And Cathy mentioned $75 million in additional synergies from CLARCOR this year. That would be 110 basis points by itself of margin expansion. So maybe you can comment a little bit more on the full year impacts and what kinds of things are the offsets there over the full year and how we should think about those going forward.

知道了。那麼也許我們可以擴大全年北美利潤率的討論範圍。現在，您的利潤率擴張處於指導中點的 20 個基點。Cathy 提到今年 CLARCOR 帶來了 7,500 萬美元的額外綜效。利潤率擴張本身就相當於 110 個基點。因此，也許您可以對全年影響進行更多評論，全年有哪些抵消因素，以及我們應該如何考慮未來的影響。

Yes. Nathan, it's Tom again. I think that the full year's impacted by the same things that I mentioned earlier, that the distribution mix really is impacting the whole second half of the year and weighing down on that number. The labor settlement weighed down on it as well. We continue to see progress. We're probably about 2/3 of the way through as far as the productivity improvements that we needed to get from CLARCOR. But that's what -- how I'd characterize it. It's a mix headwind, a little less volume than we had expected versus our prior guide. That would be another factor because when we did the original guidance, we had quite a bit more volume associated with that. So the combination of volume, mix, the labor settlement is pretty much contained in Q3, but those are weighing down the full year number.

是的。內森，又是湯姆。我認為全年受到我之前提到的相同的影響，分配組合確實影響了整個下半年並壓低了這個數字。勞資協議也對其造成壓力。我們繼續看到進展。就我們需要從 CLARCOR 獲得的生產力改進而言，我們可能已經完成了大約 2/3。但這就是我對它的描述。這是一個混合逆風，與我們之前的指南相比，音量比我們預期的要少一些。這將是另一個因素，因為當我們進行最初的指導時，我們有相當多的與之相關的數量。因此，數量、結構和勞動力解決的組合幾乎包含在第三季度，但這些都拖累了全年數據。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

So maybe just kind of following a little bit on Nathan's question and your commentary, Tom, on distribution. Is it your sense that distributors destock now because they pulled forward demand at the end of the calendar year last year? Or what are maybe kind of some of the underlying things that is impacting the destock that you're seeing this past quarter and then into this quarter?

所以也許只是稍微關註一下內森的問題和你對發行的評論，湯姆。您是否認為經銷商現在減少庫存是因為他們在去年年底拉動了需求？或者，影響上個季度和本季庫存減少的潛在因素是什麼？

Joe, this is Lee. I'm going to -- I'll answer that question. I think as long as I'm on, I'll take an opportunity just to update everybody on the markets, too, if I can. So as Tom said, noticeable inventory destocking in North America, the channel in Q3. And we expect that -- you could tell the imbalance of stock material was improving through the quarter. It's improved in April. But we do expect it to continue through Q4.

喬，這是李。我要——我會回答這個問題。我想只要我還在工作，如果可以的話，我也會抓住機會向每個人通報市場的最新情況。正如湯姆所說，第三季北美通路的庫存明顯減少。我們預計，您可以看出本季庫存材料的不平衡狀況正在改善。4月情況有所改善。但我們確實預計這種情況將持續到第四季。

A couple of key things different. One, kind of our visibility to this is kind of a 30-day lag. And so we didn't have perfect information as we went into Q3. Second, there were some noticeable slowdowns in some end markets that our North American distributors service that I think caught them off-guard. Definitely a slowdown in in-plant automotive investment, which is -- it comes in waves depending on platforms and build schedules, continued softness in the microelectronics area and then softness in land-based oil and gas. And there's 2 factors taking place there. One, there's takeaway capacity, mostly in Alberta and the Permian Basin. But there's also an overbuild at some of the key land-based oil and gas OEMs. So I expect that to cycle its way through as time goes on.

有幾個關鍵的不同之處。第一，我們對此的可見度有 30 天的延遲。因此，當我們進入第三季時，我們沒有完整的資訊。其次，我們的北美經銷商服務的一些終端市場出現了一些明顯的放緩，我認為這讓他們措手不及。工廠內汽車投資肯定會放緩，這取決於平台和建設時間表、微電子領域的持續疲軟以及陸基石油和天然氣領域的疲軟。這裡有兩個因素。第一，有外帶能力，主要集中在艾伯塔省和二疊紀盆地。但一些主要的陸基石油和天然氣原始設備製造商也存在過度建設的情況。因此，我希望隨著時間的推移，這種情況會不斷循環。

And then just lastly, I would say as order entry was accelerating, which led to this inventory destocking, our team likes to use inventory as a real competitive weapon out there. So kind of a natural thing that happened, but that's what's different than Q2.

最後，我想說，隨著訂單輸入的加速，導致庫存去庫存，我們的團隊喜歡將庫存用作真正的競爭武器。這是很自然的事情，但這就是與第二季度不同的地方。

I'm just going to take a second if I can and update on the market. So I really put these markets in 3 buckets. And if I thought about distribution at a high level, it was pretty neutral for the quarter. I'm not going to comment anymore. And that I gave you the most colors, but it varies by region. But North America was neutral.

如果可以的話，我會花一點時間更新市場狀況。所以我真的把這些市場分成三類。如果我從高層考慮分配問題，就會發現本季的分配情況相當中性。我不會再發表評論了。我給了你最多的顏色，但它因地區而異。但北美保持中立。

On the positive side for us, they continue to grow around the world. Aerospace, obviously I'll comment on that. Really natural resource construction forestry, engines, lawn and turf, North America-centric. Rail is very strong. Heavy-duty truck Class 8 backlogs are very strong. There's probably some softening coming in the future based on order entry there, but right now, the backlogs are very strong, material handling and refrigeration end markets, along with telecom and life sciences.

對我們來說積極的一面是，它們在世界各地繼續增長。航空航天，顯然我會對此發表評論。真正的自然資源建設林業、發動機、草坪和草皮，以北美為中心。鐵路非常強大。8 級重型卡車積壓量非常大。根據訂單輸入情況，未來可能會出現一些疲軟，但目前，材料處理和冷凍終端市場以及電信和生命科學市場的積壓情況非常嚴重。

So a lot of positive market still right now. I talked about distribution, which I put in that neutral category right now. But then I'd say, on the soft side, there's some trade-related end markets. We highlighted those last quarter. But general industrial machine tools, automotive mills and foundries continue to be soft. And then there's oil and gas, which is soft based on where we play, which predominantly is on the upstream side. We have exposure to all areas but upstream. And then power gen and semiconductor microelectronics.

所以現在市場仍然有很多正面的一面。我談到了分銷，我現在將其歸類為中性類別。但我想說，在軟方面，有一些與貿易相關的終端市場。我們在上個季度強調了這些。但通用工業工具機、汽車廠和鑄造廠仍持續疲軟。然後是石油和天然氣，根據我們所處的位置（主要是上游側）而變得軟弱。我們涉足除上游以外的所有領域。然後是發電和半導體微電子。

Just quickly on Aerospace. A great quarter. Commercial OEM up 6% for the quarter. We're going to finish the year plus 9%, so strong backlogs there. Military OEM, up 16% for the quarter. We're forecasting a 13% for the year, so very strong there. Commercial MROS, as you would suspect, very strong at 11% for the quarter, forecasting plus 6% for the year. And military MRO, a very strong plus 10% for the quarter, forecasting plus 2%. So year-over-year for the quarter, plus 9.2%, and then rounding for the full year, approximating 8%.

很快就航空航天。一個很棒的季度。商業 OEM 本季成長 6%。我們預計今年的成長率將增加 9%，因此那裡的積壓情況很嚴重。軍事 OEM，本季成長 16%。我們預測今年的成長率為 13%，非常強勁。正如您所懷疑的那樣，商業 MROS 本季成長 11%，預測全年將成長 6%。軍事 MRO，本季成長 10%，預測成長 2%。因此，該季度同比增長 9.2%，然後四捨五入全年，約為 8%。

I'll just comment on Asia as a region because there's a lot of questions on that. It's clear that China was impacted -- has been impacted by broad challenge -- trade challenges in Q3. This was compounded really by a longer Chinese New Year shutdown versus very high comps. What happened around the Chinese New Year shutdown, there was slowness in the economy. A lot of OEM customers decided to shut down either one side or the other of Chinese New Year. So a little longer shutdown than we typically see. Microelectronics markets continue to really contract with a negative impact on Korea, Japan and ASEAN regions. And then Japan, Korea also experienced really a depressed export market, heavy percentage export to China. And that's really around machine tools and automotive and trucks. So it's probably more than you wanted, Joe, but now you have it.

我只會評論亞洲這個地區，因為這方面有很多問題。很明顯，中國在第三季受到了廣泛挑戰的影響——貿易挑戰。由於農曆新年停工時間較長，而比較非常高，這確實加劇了這種情況。農曆新年期間發生的停工導致經濟放緩。很多OEM客戶決定在春節期間停工。因此，關閉時間比我們通常看到的要長一些。微電子市場持續萎縮，對韓國、日本和東協地區產生負面影響。然後日本、韓國也經歷了出口市場的低迷，大部分出口到中國。這實際上是圍繞著機床、汽車和卡車而言的。所以這可能超出了你想要的，喬，但現在你已經擁有了。

No, that's exactly what I wanted. I appreciate all the color. And if I could just maybe follow on. Obviously, commercial, aero, the MRO piece of the business sounds like it was a little bit better than we anticipated for the quarter. I know that you guys were originally talking about some headwinds in the second half of the year for the aero business both from an aftermarket standpoint but also because R&D was stepping up. So if you could maybe just provide a little bit more color on what R&D was for the quarter and what we should be thinking about in terms of that for 4Q as well.

不，這正是我想要的。我欣賞所有的顏色。如果我可以繼續下去的話。顯然，商業、航空、MRO 業務聽起來比我們本季的預期要好一些。我知道你們最初談論的是今年下半年航空業務的一些逆風，這不僅是從售後市場的角度來看，也是因為研發正在加強。因此，您是否可以就本季的研發情況以及我們在第四季度的研發方面應該考慮的內容提供更多資訊。

Yes. Joe, I'll help you with that one. We do see a little bit of the comps for the fourth quarter. We had significant military MRO last year fourth quarter, so the comps for fourth quarter are higher than usual. And so that's part of the headwind in terms of volume or growth that we were talking about, and we still see that as a headwind.

是的。喬，我會幫你解決這個問題。我們確實看到了第四季度的一些情況。去年第四季我們進行了大量的軍事 MRO，因此第四季的業績比平時要高。因此，這是我們所討論的數量或增長方面的逆風的一部分，我們仍然認為這是一種逆風。

The development costs for the quarter were lower than we expected. Some of the costs got pushed into the fourth quarter. We did 4.3% development costs in Q3 with the push of some of those into the fourth quarter, and we expected fourth quarter to be high. Right now, we're forecasting fourth quarter to be 7.5% to 8% for the quarter. That'll get us to a total year development cost of somewhere between 5.5% and 6%.

本季的開發成本低於我們的預期。部分成本延後到第四季。我們在第三季度的開發成本為 4.3%，其中一些已推至第四季度，我們預計第四季度會很高。目前，我們預測第四季該季度的成長率為 7.5% 至 8%。這將使我們的年度總開發成本降低到 5.5% 到 6% 之間。

Our next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

I was just curious, with the order rates that you're seeing and if you can clarify where do you think the distribution destocking ends. Is it done in your mind by June 30? Just curious, big picture, Tom, just how you're thinking about looking into fiscal '20 with the order rates. Maybe you can help us a little bit to kind of baseline, are we thinking of the year as the year that can return to growth? Not just earnings I'm talking about, of course, but revenue. It's just where the order book is trending now, inventory levels. Just trying to get some perspective. And maybe if you could help us to where's the backlog today versus a year ago. Or how you're thinking about fiscal 4Q. Where does the backlog end, the fiscal year or year-over-year?

我只是很好奇，您所看到的訂單率以及您是否可以澄清您認為分銷去庫存會在哪裡結束。您想在 6 月 30 日之前完成嗎？只是好奇，湯姆，你是如何看待 20 財年的訂單率的。也許你可以幫助我們確定一些基準，我們是否認為今年是可以恢復成長的一年？當然，我談論的不僅是收益，還有收入。這正是訂單簿目前的趨勢，即庫存水準。只是想獲得一些觀點。也許您可以幫助我們了解今天與一年前相比的積壓情況。或您如何看待第四財季。積壓工作在哪裡結束，是本財年還是與去年同期？

So David, it's Tom. Just a couple of comments about really kind of how we formed our view for Q4. It was influenced by Q3's orders. So you see a negative 6 in North America. And that kind of declined throughout the quarter. However, we saw an improvement in April to where -- and we really felt that our order entry rate at minus 6 was probably influenced by about 300 basis points by distribution's destocking. We look at the sales into distribution and the sales out of distribution. That's about a 300 basis points delta there. Hence, we've forecast for Q4 about a 2.5% softness in North America. But -- so that's a little better than the order entry, picking up on a little better April order entry that we saw.

大衛，是湯姆。只是關於我們如何形成對第四季的看法的一些評論。受第三季訂單影響。所以你在北美看到的是負 6。整個季度這種情況有所下降。然而，我們在 4 月看到了改善，我們確實認為負 6 的訂單輸入率可能受到分銷去庫存約 300 個基點的影響。我們查看分銷內的銷售額和分銷外的銷售額。這大約是 300 個基點的增量。因此，我們預測第四季北美市場將出現 2.5% 的疲軟。但是，這比訂單輸入要好一點，我們看到的四月訂單輸入要好一些。

International stayed pretty consistent through the quarter, as well as April. Hence, we kept international at minus 4% for Q4. And then Aerospace is a plus 3% piggybacking on what Cathy talked about as far as the comparables to last year.

國際市場在整個季度以及四月保持相當穩定。因此，我們將第四季的國際利率維持在-4%。然後，與去年相比，航空航太公司在 Cathy 所說的基礎上增加了 3%。

So it's hard, as you might imagine, to predict FY '20, and I'm not going to do that because it would really help us to have another 3 months under our belt. I think you can project what is what we have in the guide here that the destocking will continue through the quarter. And I think we've got a better way of graphing that now to see these trends a little bit easier than looking at it in tables. And so I think we need a few more months to know whether we can say that it's going to end in June. But it's clearly, that gap between purchases and sales at our distributors is narrowing. So the trend looks good whether we'll get done in the complete quarter, we don't know.

因此，正如您可能想像的那樣，很難預測 20 財年，而且我不會這樣做，因為這確實有助於我們再多活 3 個月。我認為您可以預測我們在指南中的內容，即本季將繼續減少庫存。我認為我們現在有了更好的圖表方法，可以比在表格中查看這些趨勢更容易一些。所以我認為我們還需要幾個月的時間才能知道是否可以說它會在六月結束。但很明顯，我們經銷商的採購和銷售之間的差距正在縮小。因此，趨勢看起來不錯，我們不知道我們是否能在整個季度內完成。

I think when you look at the comparables to last year, we continue the comps to get a little bit better, but they're still pretty high. And so maybe our first half is a little more challenged, and the second half becomes a little more attractive when you look at some of the order entry comparables. I still feel very optimistic about the underlying growth. If I take distribution as an example and back out the destocking, our view is distribution was growing around 3%, low single digits in North America. And so I think that's going to be there once the destocking plays through for the reasons that Lee went through. And we'll give you the visibility for sure when we get there, but I'm still optimistic. A lot of us -- this noise is going to play through. We have a couple of tough comps in the beginning of the year, but that should help us in the second half.

我認為，當你看看與去年的比較時，我們會繼續讓比較變得更好，但它們仍然相當高。因此，也許我們的上半年更具挑戰性，而當您查看一些訂單輸入可比較時，下半年會變得更具吸引力。我對潛在的成長仍然感到非常樂觀。如果我以分銷為例並取消去庫存，我們的觀點是分銷增長了 3% 左右，在北美是低個位數。因此，我認為，一旦由於李所經歷的原因而進行去庫存，這種情況就會出現。當我們到達那裡時，我們肯定會為您提供可見性，但我仍然樂觀。我們很多人都會聽到這種噪音。我們在年初有一些艱難的比賽，但這應該會對我們下半年有所幫助。

And given your April comments and maybe just what you're seeing and what you're hearing from customers, would it be fair to say as a bit of a baseline given a little bit easier comp and your commentary about April, you would not expect further order deterioration year-over-year in North America and international?

考慮到您四月份的評論，也許只是您所看到的以及您從客戶那裡聽到的內容，考慮到更簡單的比較和您對四月份的評論，可以公平地說作為一點基線，您不會期望北美和國際訂單較去年同期進一步惡化？

Well, you still got tough comps.

好吧，你的比賽仍然很艱難。

Year-over-year declines you would use as base case?

您會使用同比下降作為基本情況嗎？

It's hard to say. I mean I think Q4 will still be -- we're forecasting to be soft for Q4 based on our guide. When you get to Q1, it's still a pretty good comparable, pretty tough comparable at a plus 8% for North America. So I think you still need a little bit more time for that to play through. But at some point, we're going to pick our head above that. And that -- there's still that underlying growth that I'm optimistic it's going to come through. The destocking will finish. The trade tensions will finish. But for us, the trade tensions has been negligible cost impact, but it's been more demand impact. And I think more of a true growth trajectory will be seen for the company.

很難說。我的意思是，我認為第四季仍然會——根據我們的指南，我們預測第四季將會疲軟。當你到達第一季時，它仍然是一個相當不錯的可比性，相當艱難的可比性，北美地區的成長率為 8%。所以我認為你還需要更多的時間來完成這個任務。但在某些時候，我們將超越這一點。而且，我對這種潛在的成長仍然感到樂觀，它將會實現。去庫存將結束。貿易緊張局勢將會結束。但對我們來說，貿易緊張局勢對成本的影響可以忽略不計，但對需求的影響更大。我認為公司將會看到更多真正的成長軌跡。

And last question. Just I think maybe some of these order growth rates were a little bit weaker than some people thought. Is there anything when you look at 2020 how you think about toggling between price, any cost maybe relief that you've seen that allows you maybe to be a little more aggressive on sales? Just trying to think of the toggle between -- obviously, you're dedicated to your margins but also maybe the orders here a little weaker than people thought, and I'm not sure if there's any cost relief that's going to allow you to be more aggressive next year or just maybe frame that balance for us.

最後一個問題。只是我認為，其中一些訂單成長率可能比某些人想像的要弱一些。當你展望 2020 年時，有什麼你認為在價格和成本之間切換的想法嗎？只是想想兩者之間的切換——顯然，你致力於你的利潤，但這裡的訂單也可能比人們想像的要弱一些，我不確定是否有任何成本減免可以讓你明年會更加激進，或者只是為我們構建這種平衡。

David, it's Lee. I mean, I think we always try to price to win. So I mean we target where we want to go. We're very cognizant of the balance between input cost and what's going on, and we always strive to be margin neutral. So I expect it to be a lower inflation environment going next year than what we've been experiencing.

大衛，是李。我的意思是，我認為我們總是試圖透過定價來取勝。所以我的意思是我們瞄準我們想去的地方。我們非常了解投入成本與實際情況之間的平衡，並且始終努力保持利潤中立。因此，我預計明年的通膨環境將低於我們所經歷的情況。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Just again, I'm sure, I'll ask another question on destocking. Just thinking about where the industrial cycle is. Your goal of 150 basis points outgrowth, should we expect a snapback in growth rates once destocking is over? And if not, how does this reconcile, as I said, with your target of global industrial growth for a plus 150 basis points?

我確定，我會再問一個關於去庫存的問題。只要想想產業週期在哪裡。您的目標是成長 150 個基點，我們是否應該預期去庫存結束後成長率會迅速回升？如果不是，正如我所說，這與你們的全球工業成長 150 個基點以上的目標如何協調？

Andrew, it's Tom. So the goal versus the global industrial production is really over a cycle over multiple years. And if you look at us as a last really 2 years approximately, we were growing in that anywhere from 6% to 10% organically. And so we were clearly growing 2x to 3x what industrial production mix. Right now, we'd be a hair below that with global industrial production mix in that 1.5% to 2% range. I would expect once the destocking plays through and the China demand stabilizes post trade concerns, that you would see us in -- not a snapback. I would not characterize it as a snapback. I would characterize it as a slower, moderate growth world. Not the 6 to 10 that we're living in when we snapped out of the industrial session of '15 and '16 but more of a steady growth. And with all the things we have -- extra tailwinds that we have to drive earnings growth between The Win Strategy, naturally, between efficiencies and the plant closures, LORD coming on and the synergies we'll get there, we have a lot of EPS growth that we can do over the next several years in a moderate-growth world.

安德魯，是湯姆。因此，相對於全球工業生產的目標實際上是一個多年的周期。如果你看看我們過去大約 2 年，我們的有機成長率在 6% 到 10% 之間。因此，我們的工業生產組合顯然成長了 2 至 3 倍。目前，如果全球工業生產結構處於 1.5% 至 2% 的範圍內，我們的成長速度將略低於此水準。我預計，一旦去庫存化進程完成並且中國需求在貿易後的擔憂中穩定下來，你就會看到我們的情況——而不是快速回升。我不會將其描述為快速恢復。我將其描述為一個緩慢、適度增長的世界。不是我們從 15 年和 16 年的工業會議中恢復過來時所生活的 6 到 10 年，而是更多的穩定成長。憑藉我們所擁有的一切——我們必須在「獲勝策略」之間推動獲利成長，當然，在效率和工廠關閉之間、「主」到來以及我們將實現的協同效應之間，我們有很多每股收益我們在未來幾年在適度成長的世界中可以實現的成長。

So I feel very strongly that, that 19% target is still a target even with the extra amortization we're going to take on with LORD and all that. We still have an opportunity to hit that, and that's the plan.

因此，我強烈認為，即使考慮到我們將與 Lord 一起承擔的額外攤銷費用，19% 的目標仍然是一個目標。我們仍然有機會實現這一目標，這就是計劃。

And just a follow-up on sort of adjustment to fourth quarter guidance on segment operating income. You identified a number of onetime items in North American performance. And frankly, if you pull that out, we thought incrementals were very solid. So just wondering why so conservative on Q4. Why don't you think you could get more offsets on top line through execution to fourth quarter? And I -- did I just miss something in your commentary? And if I did, I apologize.

這只是對第四季部門營業收入指引的某種調整的後續行動。您在北美的表現中發現了許多曾經的項目。坦白說，如果你把它拿出來，我們認為增量是非常可靠的。所以只是想知道為什麼第四季如此保守。為什麼您不認為透過執行到第四季可以在營收上獲得更多抵銷？而我——我是不是錯過了你評論中的某些內容？如果我這樣做了，我會道歉。

No, no, you didn't miss anything, Andrew, it's Tom. We've got really -- we have some softness in Q4, and we have a very attractive decremental that's in there. It's only like minus -- less than minus 10% decremental. So we are -- that underlying margin enhancement is still there being offset by the volume. And we still have the distribution pressure with the destocking with that mix shift hitting us.

不，不，你沒有錯過任何事情，安德魯，是湯姆。我們在第四季度確實有一些疲軟，而且我們有一個非常有吸引力的減量。它只是像負號一樣——減少了不到負10%。因此，潛在的利潤率提高仍然存在，但被銷售所抵消。而且我們仍然面臨著去庫存和混合轉變帶來的分銷壓力。

We'll still come in, in Q4 at 18.1% operating margin for Q4. So it's very nice numbers. But I think that is part of the story is attractive going into FY '20 that, that destocking is going to play through. It's not going to continue forever, and we're going to get some upside for that as we turn the corner into FY '20.

第四季我們仍將維持 18.1% 的營業利潤率。所以這是一個非常好的數字。但我認為，進入 20 財年，去庫存將會發揮作用，這是一個很有吸引力的故事的一部分。這種情況不會永遠持續下去，當我們進入 20 財年時，我們將為此獲得一些好處。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

First, I was just wondering if Cathy perhaps could explain a little bit more what exactly that adjustment was in corporate and what we should expect going forward.

首先，我只是想知道凱茜是否可以更多地解釋一下公司的調整到底是什麼以及我們未來應該期待什麼。

Sure, Jeff. We carried some investments to support a deferred comp plan, and the accounting rules require us to mark-to-market that balance. And in the third quarter, we saw a nice gain in the market share of those investments, now that compares to second quarter where we had a significant loss. So it's a mark-to-market investment fluctuation that we're seeing come through our corporate G&A line.

當然，傑夫。我們進行了一些投資來支持遞延補償計劃，會計規則要求我們將餘額按市價計價。在第三季度，我們看到這些投資的市場份額有了很大的成長，而第二季度我們卻出現了重大損失。因此，我們透過公司的一般管理費用線看到了按市值計價的投資波動。

And I was also just wondering back on kind of the whole order equation. It looks like your organic revenues have historically very, very closely tracked your orders, right, with maybe a quarter delay. You don't seem to be signaling a revenue contraction in North America that would be commensurate with the order decline that we just saw and perhaps continues based on your commentary. Am I missing something there? Or is there just something in kind of the way this destock is playing through that's coloring your view? Any additional color there would be helpful.

我也只是想知道整個階次方程式的類型。從歷史上看，您的有機收入似乎非常非常密切地追蹤您的訂單，對吧，可能有四分之一的延遲。您似乎沒有表示北美的收入收縮與我們剛剛看到的訂單下降相稱，根據您的評論，訂單下降可能還會繼續。我在那裡錯過了什麼嗎？或者只是這種去庫存的方式影響了你的看法？任何額外的顏色都會有幫助。

Jeff, it's Tom. You're not missing anything. In general, you're right that our follow-up period orders tend to generate the next quarter's sales with the exception of the destocking was more pronounced in Q3. And what's giving us optimism, which is why we have the guidance not quite as soft in North America, is that April orders improved quite a bit from March. They're still not out of the woods. We still have the destocking but improved better to where -- what you're seeing with that 2.5% is about what we saw in April. And our sense as far as when we talk to our distributors, what we'll see the rest of the quarter. In a lot of cases on those type of orders, we can cycle them all within the same period.

傑夫，是湯姆。你沒有遺漏任何東西。總的來說，你是對的，我們的後續訂單往往會產生下一季的銷售額，但第三季的去庫存更為明顯。讓我們感到樂觀的是，四月份的訂單比三月有了很大的改善，這就是為什麼我們在北美的指導不那麼軟的原因。他們還沒有脫離困境。我們仍然在去庫存，但改善得更好——你所看到的 2.5% 與我們 4 月看到的差不多。我們的感覺是，當我們與經銷商交談時，我們將在本季度剩餘的時間裡看到什麼。在很多情況下，對於這些類型的訂單，我們可以在同一時期內循環它們。

Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ann Duignan。

Maybe switching gears a little bit. Could you give us a little bit of color around rest of world markets? I mean I know you talked about Asia, but could you talk a little bit in more depth about Europe and what you're seeing there by end market or by country?

也許稍微改變一下方式。您能為我們介紹一下世界其他市場的情況嗎？我的意思是，我知道您談到了亞洲，但您能否更深入地談談歐洲以及您在終端市場或國家/地區看到的情況？

Yes. Ann, it's Lee. I spent quite a bit of time at Hanover Fair and at the bauma show. And at the bauma show, if you talk to industrial customers, it's generally soft. And I would -- a lot of it seems to be trade related in some way or another. So these would be German machine tool companies, et cetera. If you're in the construction equipment, forestry industry, you can't build equipment fast enough. So there's still high demand.

是的。安，是李。我在漢諾威博覽會和寶馬展上度過了相當多的時間。而在寶馬展上，如果你與工業客戶交談，通常都是軟文。我認為，其中許多似乎都以某種方式與貿易有關。所以這些將是德國工具機公司等等。如果您從事建築設備、林業行業，那麼您製造設備的速度就不夠快。所以需求還是很大的。

Distribution markets are still strong throughout EMEA. And then there's a little bit -- it's bouncing off a low number, but there's an acceleration around the world around offshore oil and gas, slowly but surely. So I mean that's positive, and we're seeing some of that in the North Sea.

整個歐洲、中東和非洲地區的分銷市場仍然強勁。然後還有一點——雖然數字有所回升，但世界各地海上石油和天然氣的發展正在加速，雖然緩慢但肯定。所以我的意思是這是積極的，我們在北海看到了其中的一些情況。

I would say, in Asia, I'm not sure I can really add anything more than what I have on there. There's definitely softness around -- some of the industrial markets were there. Construction equipment, et cetera, still seems to be pretty good. And distribution as a whole kind of held in there in Asia Pacific.

我想說，在亞洲，我不確定我是否真的可以添加比我現有的更多的東西。周圍肯定存在疲軟——一些工業市場就在那裡。建築設備等等，看起來還是不錯的。整個發行活動都在亞太地區舉行。

Okay. I appreciate the color. And then just maybe one follow-up on North America distribution. Do you know how much of your North American distribution is leveraged to oil and gas or even by region distributors in Texas? Or any metric that you could use to give us some sense of the size of that business?

好的。我很欣賞它的顏色。然後也許只是北美發行的一個後續行動。您知道您的北美分銷有多少是石油和天然氣的槓桿，甚至是德克薩斯州的地區分銷商的槓桿嗎？或者您可以使用任何指標來讓我們了解該業務的規模？

Nothing I can repeat right now. It might be something we could take off-line. But the exposure tends to be among those distributors that are in that area of trade. So I mean it's like you said, it's Texas, Oklahoma, they're around the Gulf down there is where it is. But that's something we can look at.

我現在無法重複什麼。這可能是我們可以離線的東西。但風險往往是在該貿易領域的經銷商之間。所以我的意思是就像你說的，是德克薩斯州、俄克拉荷馬州，它們在海灣周圍，就在那裡。但這是我們可以看看的。

Okay. And the destocking was broad based in the oil and gas sector or regions?

好的。石油和天然氣產業或地區的去庫存是否廣泛？

Yes. And also around -- we've got distributors that do a lot around in-plant automotive, which is kind of spread out of the way from the Midwest down through the South. That amount of investment in activity has slowed down quite a bit. And then we've got distributors on the West Coast mostly, some on the East Coast, involved with the microelectronics industry, and that's been pretty soft, as you know.

是的。而且，我們的經銷商在廠內汽車方面做了很多工作，這些汽車的業務範圍從中西部一直延伸到南部。活動投資額已大幅放緩。然後我們的分銷商主要在西海岸，一些在東海岸，涉及微電子行業，正如你所知，這非常軟。

But if you went out and talked to a lot of our other distributors, I mean, they're very positive about business even with -- in the oil and gas area. It's just a slowdown from the high level of activity that there was, which has led to this destocking.

但如果你出去與我們的許多其他經銷商交談，我的意思是，他們對業務非常積極，即使是在石油和天然氣領域。這只是高水準活動的放緩，導致庫存減少。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe)。

I want to go back to the order numbers and fully understand the comments about the destocking in the MRO channel. But I'm wondering if we're still restocking through calendar '18. And therefore, even if we do get to a point where the destocking stops, are we then comping against restocking activity and therefore still have challenging comps through the back half of the year?

我想回到訂單號，充分理解MRO通路關於去庫存的評論。但我想知道我們是否仍在 18 年曆期間補貨。因此，即使我們確實達到了去庫存停止的地步，我們是否會與補貨活動進行比較，因此在今年下半年仍然具有挑戰性的比較？

And then the second part of my question, it's really the same question, is normally it takes 4 to 6 quarters for negative order comps to cycle through back to positive. Is there any reason to assume that this cycle is going to be different and we can get back to positive comps earlier than 4 quarters?

然後我的問題的第二部分，這實際上是同一個問題，通常需要 4 到 6 個季度負訂單比較才能循環回正訂單。有沒有理由假設這個週期會有所不同，我們可以在 4 個季度之前恢復到正值？

Nigel, it's Tom. I think when you look at the comparables, I think we're going to the next quarter -- we've given you what we think for this Q4. I think when you could go into FY '20, clearly, the first quarter Q1 of FY '20 has a pretty tough comp. And after that, everything becomes more balanced.

奈傑爾，是湯姆。我認為，當您查看可比較數據時，我認為我們將進入下一個季度 - 我們已經向您提供了我們對第四季度的想法。我認為，當你進入 20 財年時，顯然，20 財年第一季第一季的業績相當艱難。之後，一切都變得更加平衡。

I do think that everything we -- when we do our discussions with our distributors, once this channel of destocking plays through, we feel that, that underlying growth -- when we look at the trend lines on purchases versus sales for distributors, that delta was about 300 basis points. So North America came in basically flat. So that means if you take out the destocking, North America would have grown around 300 basis points, a positive 3%.

我確實認為，當我們與分銷商進行討論時，一旦這種去庫存通路發揮作用，我們就會感覺到潛在的成長——當我們觀察經銷商的採購與銷售的趨勢線時，我們會感覺到這種潛在的成長。約為300個基點。所以北美的表現基本上持平。因此，這意味著，如果除去去庫存，北美地區的經濟成長率將達到 300 個基點左右，即正成長 3%。

So whenever that plays through, I think that's approximately where we're going to end up. The question is how long does it take to play through. We don't have that complete answer yet. We saw that difference start to net down, which was a positive in April. But until it finishes, we're not going to know. I think we're doing a better job of graphically displaying that internally so we can see the trends better. But it does lag 30 days as far as one of our distributors give us that visibility. So we don't always have perfect information when we give you a quarterly update. So when we give you August, we'll have a better view on where it's at and where we are with the destocking.

因此，每當這種情況發生時，我認為這就是我們最終的結果。問題是需要多長時間才能玩完。我們還沒有完整的答案。我們看到這種差異開始淨下降，這在四月是正面的。但在它完成之前，我們不會知道。我認為我們在內部以圖形方式顯示方面做得更好，這樣我們就可以更好地看到趨勢。但就我們的一位經銷商給我們的可見性而言，它確實滯後了 30 天。因此，當我們向您提供季度更新時，並不總是獲得完美的資訊。因此，當我們向您提供八月份的數據時，我們將更好地了解庫存情況以及去庫存情況。

Tom, I appreciate that. And then obviously with FY '20 in mind, just wondering, with Aerospace margins performing so well, are we at a level where we can still grow from here into FY '20 and beyond? Just curious how you view as kind of the next 2 or 3 years on aero margins. Can they go into the low 20s?

湯姆，我很感激。然後顯然考慮到 20 財年，只是想知道，由於航空航天利潤率表現如此之好，我們是否仍處於從現在到 20 財年及以後的增長水平？只是好奇您如何看待未來兩三年的航空利潤率。他們能進入20多歲嗎？

Nigel, it's Tom again. I feel very strong that they can. We're going to get to an equilibrium, which we're approaching that this year on R&D. If you look at this year, our mix of OEM to MRO actually got a little bit disadvantaged to us versus FY '18, that we have a little less MRO mix versus OEM. And so that's going to naturally, over time -- it's not going to happen instantaneously, but over a multi-year period of time, that MRO mix is going to come up. We continue, part of what's driving these great margins is the team has done a very nice job of entering just service productivity. They did a very nice job with The Win Strategy and, of course, they're getting a little bit of leverage with a lower R&D. So while the R&D may be reaching equilibrium, that entry into service productivity, The Win Strategy things and continued volume, is going to continue to give us margin expansion opportunities with aerospace. So I think your approximation of where we could hit is spot on, and that's what we're going to try to do.

奈傑爾，又是湯姆。我感覺非常強烈，他們可以。我們將達到平衡，今年我們在研發方面正在接近這一平衡。如果你看看今年，我們的 OEM 和 MRO 組合實際上與 18 財年相比有點處於不利地位，我們的 MRO 組合比 OEM 少一些。因此，隨著時間的推移，這會自然而然地發生——它不會立即發生，但經過多年的時間，MRO 組合將會出現。我們繼續說，推動這些巨大利潤的部分原因是團隊在服務生產力方面做得非常好。他們在致勝策略方面做得非常好，當然，他們透過較低的研發獲得了一點影響力。因此，雖然研發可能達到平衡，但進入服務生產力、制勝策略和持續的銷量，將繼續為我們提供航空航太領域利潤擴張的機會。所以我認為你對我們可以擊中的位置的近似是正確的，這就是我們要嘗試做的。

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的傑米庫克。

This is actually Themis on for Jamie. Just a question on international margins where I think you raised your margin assumptions despite the weaker top line forecast. So can you help us better understand what drove that?

這其實是忒彌斯為傑米準備的。只是一個關於國際利潤率的問題，我認為儘管營收預測較弱，但您還是提高了利潤率假設。那麼您能幫助我們更好地理解是什麼推動了這個趨勢嗎？

Are you talking about for Q4?

你是在談論第四季嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. We're building off of what we did with the prior quarter, which Q3 came in very nicely at 16.5%. And so our Q4 guide is 16.6%. So that's in line with what we did with the prior quarter. That's building on prior period restructuring that we've done, which continues to give us large -- The Win Strategy. And so we feel good that even with the softness in the top line, we have enough momentum with what we're doing from an earnings standpoint to keep those margins about where we were in Q3.

是的。我們正在上一季的基礎上繼續努力，第三季的成長率非常好，為 16.5%。因此我們第四季的指導值為 16.6%。這與我們上一季的做法一致。這是我們在前期重組的基礎上進行的，這繼續為我們帶來巨大的勝利策略。因此，我們感覺很好，即使營收疲軟，從獲利的角度來看，我們所做的事情仍有足夠的動力，可以將利潤率保持在第三季的水平。

Got it. And then maybe real quick. Could you provide some more color around your price cost assumptions for Q4?

知道了。然後也許很快。您能否就第四季度的價格成本假設提供更多資訊？

Yes. I would say commodities and input costs are basically neutral. There are some that have softened. There are some that have accelerated. And I would just expect us to be margin neutral here in Q4.

是的。我想說商品和投入成本基本上是中性的。有一些已經軟化了。有一些已經加速。我只希望我們在第四季的利潤率保持中性。

Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from RW Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 RW Baird 的 Mig Dobre。

It's Joe Grabowski on for Mig this morning. Most of my questions have been answered. I guess I'll just throw one out there. You mentioned a slowdown in in-plant automotive and you talked about that business kind of comes in waves depending on platforms. But we have seen a slowdown in auto builds around the world. So maybe a little bit more color on that dynamic and where you see it kind of over the next several quarters.

今天早上由喬·格拉博夫斯基替補米格。我的大部分問題都得到了解答。我想我會扔掉一個。您提到了廠內汽車業務的放緩，並談到該業務根據平台的不同而呈波浪式增長。但我們看到世界各地的汽車製造速度放緩。因此，也許對這種動態以及您在接下來的幾個季度中看到的情況有更多的了解。

Yes. So I mean the way I look at our automotive exposure is basically in plant and then MRO activity. The big dollar amounts are when they're tooling up for a new platform, new transmission line, engine line, et cetera, a lot of our distribution base gets involved with those types of investments and their machine tool customers. So that's where the slowdown is. It's -- these slowdowns tend to happen between model builds. It's nothing that's systemic long term, but it's just a slowdown right now at that level.

是的。所以我的意思是，我看待我們汽車業務的方式基本上是工廠，然後是 MRO 活動。當他們為新平台、新傳輸線、引擎線等配備工具時，我們的許多分銷基地都會參與這些類型的投資及其工具機客戶，這是一筆巨額金額。這就是放緩的地方。這些減速往往發生在模型建構之間。從長遠來看，這並不是系統性的長期問題，但目前只是在這個層面上放緩。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Just want to follow up on a couple of things, and I'll beat the dead horse a little bit more here on North America distribution. I think last quarter, Lee, you mentioned that we were kind of at the end of destocking. You had lived through a little bit then. I guess that sine wave and distributor stocking levels, what got worse? What got better? And then, I guess, what got worse again that kind of led to the early call on that being balanced as of last quarter and then coming back in again?

只是想跟進一些事情，我將在北美發行方面進一步擊敗死馬。我想上個季度，李，你提到我們的去庫存已經接近尾聲。那時你已經經歷了一點點。我猜想正弦波和分銷商的庫存水平，什麼變得更糟？什麼變得更好了？然後，我想，是什麼再次變得更糟，導致早期呼籲在上個季度達到平衡，然後再次回歸？

Yes. Josh, so it was a lot of phone calls last quarter. I'm always in touch with our distribution base, just kind of getting a level of what's happening. One is the holiday periods. So sometimes, people aren't as focused on what's happening day to day, but the one thing that got worse during the quarter was really those things. It was around a significant slowdown around land-based oil and gas. And again, it was all the way from Alberta, all the way down through the Permian Basin. And then with some of the key OEM customers that our distributors really take care of, that there was an overbuild of equipment, which will work its way through. So that slowed down. And that wasn't so much on the radar screen when we were checking last time. So I think that's what the overcorrection was. And then the other things I talked about. Just kind of a slowdown in in-plant and automotive and then continued softness in microelectronics.

是的。喬希，所以上個季度接到了很多電話。我始終與我們的分銷基地保持聯繫，只是了解正在發生的事情。一是假日期間。因此，有時，人們不會那麼關注日常發生的事情，但本季變得更糟的事情確實是這些事情。這是由於陸上石油和天然氣的大幅放緩所致。再說一次，它是從阿爾伯塔省一直到二疊紀盆地。然後，對於我們的分銷商真正關心的一些主要 OEM 客戶來說，存在設備過度建設的情況，這將得到解決。於是就放慢了速度。當我們上次檢查時，雷達螢幕上並沒有那麼多。所以我認為這就是矯枉過正的原因。然後是我談到的其他事情。只是工廠內和汽車產業的放緩，然後是微電子產業的持續疲軟。

And then lastly, I think we've been a little -- been a little smarter had we had that last 30 days of data because we do -- our distributors do report their sales, and we would have seen that. The data would have said something different than the phone interviews, so that would have helped.

最後，我認為如果我們擁有過去 30 天的數據，我們就會變得更聰明一點，因為我們的經銷商確實報告了他們的銷售情況，我們會看到這一點。這些數據所表達的內容可能與電話訪談不同，所以這會有所幫助。

Got it. But I guess within that, there's something that presumably felt less bad or got better, call it, 60, 90 days ago that maybe changed your mind on since then. But was there something that actually did get better? Or was it just the end of destocking that didn't happen?

知道了。但我猜想，其中有一些事情可能會讓你感覺不那麼糟糕或變得更好，稱之為 60、90 天前，也許從那時起你就改變了主意。但有什麼事情確實變得更好了嗎？或者只是去庫存的結束並沒有發生？

I think -- so the destocking is the headline number. But I think if you were to call out to any of our distributors, they would feel like these are good times. I mean there's a very good underlying growth happening throughout the country. It's just there was just a rapid growth taking place. There was an inventory stocking taking place. And probably got out ahead of what demand was.

我認為——所以去庫存是頭條新聞。但我認為，如果您向我們的任何經銷商打電話，他們都會覺得現在是美好時光。我的意思是，全國各地都出現了非常好的潛在成長。只是正在發生快速成長。正在進行庫存備貨。並且可能會超出需求。

Josh, it's Tom. I just wanted to add on maybe for everybody else too. Our distributors -- Lee touched on this earlier on. Our distributors view inventory as a strategic advantage, and they view it as a market share opportunity. So remember how rapidly the inflection was when we go from '16 into '17 and we're all growing at 8%, 10%. So our distributors were really hustling to build those kind of inventory positions that they wanted to have. I think that correction and their sales and operating plan are correcting to current demand probably didn't happen quick enough on their end. We had not the same kind of visibility that we would like to have because it lags by 30 days. And I think our technology, how we looked at it, by the fact that we are now trending this, it's easier to see trends versus it is to just look at raw data. I think you have all that phenomena of the rapid inflection, maybe an opportunity for distributors to take share and maybe being a little more aggressive on that. And now it's playing through. So I think we'll never have perfect visibility, but I think that data analytics we now have will give us a little better color when we give you a guidance going forward.

喬什，是湯姆。我只是想為其他人添加一些內容。我們的經銷商李早些時候談到了這一點。我們的經銷商將庫存視為戰略優勢，並將其視為市場份額機會。所以請記住，當我們從 16 年進入 17 年時，轉折點是多麼迅速，我們都以 8%、10% 的速度成長。因此，我們的經銷商確實在努力建立他們想要的庫存狀況。我認為，他們的銷售和營運計劃正在針對當前需求進行調整，但最終可能發生得不夠快。我們沒有得到我們想要的那種可見性，因為它落後了 30 天。我認為我們的技術，我們如何看待它，事實上我們現在正在研究這一趨勢，與僅查看原始數據相比，更容易看到趨勢。我認為所有這些快速變化的現像都存在，也許是分銷商獲得份額的機會，也許在這方面更加積極主動。現在它正在播放。因此，我認為我們永遠不會擁有完美的可見性，但我認為，當我們為您提供未來指導時，我們現在擁有的數據分析將為我們提供更好的色彩。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up. Obviously with the announcement earlier this week, Engineered Materials becomes a much bigger piece of the portfolio on a pro forma basis. How did your Engineered Materials business perform this quarter?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是後續行動。顯然，隨著本週早些時候的公告，工程材料在預計的基礎上成為投資組合中更大的一部分。本季您的工程材料業務表現如何？

Josh, it's Tom. It continues to be one of our higher-margin businesses. And I would say it was very much in line with the total company as far as growth and the same kind of organic growth as a total company had. Remember, it's an industrial orientated, it has -- just like LORD has, it has aerospace exposure as well. I think the difference with what LORD brings and we're excited about, is LORD is a content shift for us on automotive. First of all, remember that LORD is 70% not automotive. It has a fantastic aerospace portfolio and a great industrial portfolio. LORD grew 14% organically in Q1. And if you factor in currency, they grew about 7%. So they had the same kind of currency headwinds we have. But the automotive difference like why we feel pressure on automotive, they did not feel this same kind of pressure because the bill of material for an AGV or an EV, if you look at the thermal management and the structural pieces on lightweighting is about 10 to 20x. That's the right number, 10 to 20x the bill of material on a combustion engine machine. That's why they have the opportunity to not be impacted by automotive and why we were so attracted to them, plus the fact that they've got this great aerospace portfolio that's growing just like ours and the job they're doing on industrial. So just look at their growth rate. 14% organic growth in Q1 is -- I don't care how you slice it, that's pretty darn good.

喬什，是湯姆。它仍然是我們利潤率較高的業務之一。我想說，就成長而言，它與整個公司非常一致，並且與整個公司具有相同的有機成長。請記住，它是一個以工業為導向的公司，就像 Lord 一樣，它也有航空航天業務。我認為，LORD 帶來的讓我們感到興奮的不同之處在於，LORD 為我們帶來了汽車領域的內容轉變。首先，請記住，LORD 70% 不是汽車。它擁有出色的航空航天產品組合和出色的工業產品組合。Lord 在第一季有機成長了 14%。如果考慮到貨幣因素，它們的成長率約為 7%。因此，他們面臨著與我們相同的貨幣逆風。但汽車方面的差異，就像我們為什麼對汽車感到壓力一樣，他們沒有感受到同樣的壓力，因為AGV 或EV 的材料清單，如果你看看熱管理和輕量化的結構件，大約是10 到10 %。 20 倍。這是正確的數字，是內燃機機器上材料清單的 10 到 20 倍。這就是為什麼他們有機會不受汽車行業的影響，也是為什麼我們對他們如此感興趣，再加上他們擁有出色的航空航天產品組合，這些產品組合與我們的產品組合以及他們在工業領域所做的工作一樣正在成長。所以只要看看他們的成長率就好了。第一季 14% 的有機成長——我不在乎你如何劃分它，這非常好。

Then our final question for today comes from the line of Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

那麼我們今天的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just a quick one around the North America margin outlook. Just wanted to sort of test your conviction. And that if we see in fiscal '20 another year of low single-digit but positive sales growth in Industrial North America, how confident you are that margins can expand from that, what, [16 8] level, I guess, at the midpoint for this year.

也許只是關於北美利潤率前景的快速介紹。只是想測試一下你的信念。如果我們在 20 財年看到北美工業公司又出現低個位數但積極的銷售增長，那麼您對利潤率可以從中點擴大的信心有多大，我猜，[16 8] 水平在中點今年。

Julian, it's Tom. I'm still comfortable that we can expand those margins, absolutely. We've got tailwinds on just The Win Strategy in general and all the things we're doing related to simplification, lean, supply chain work and our value pricing strategies. We still got upside on what we're doing from an innovation standpoint. And we're going to continue to get some tailwind as we continue to get better and the plants on the plant consolidations. Good thing is that we're seeing the progress. It was masked a little bit in Q3 because of those one-offs that we talked about earlier. But we still feel good about that trajectory. So I think you would expect normal type of incrementals coming on volume gain for North America going into next year.

朱利安，是湯姆。我仍然對我們絕對可以擴大這些利潤感到滿意。總體而言，我們在「獲勝策略」以及我們正在做的所有與簡化、精益、供應鏈工作和價值定價策略相關的事情上都取得了順風順水。從創新的角度來看，我們所做的事情仍然有優勢。隨著我們不斷變得更好以及工廠的整合，我們將繼續獲得一些順風。好消息是我們看到了進展。由於我們之前討論過的那些一次性事件，它在第三季被掩蓋了一點。但我們仍然對這條軌跡感覺良好。因此，我認為您預計明年北美地區的銷售將出現正常類型的增量。

And then my second one. I think, Tom, on the last call, you talked about this still being a great industrial environment. Clearly, the destocking has dented things a little bit, and wondered in that light if there were maybe any extra cost measures being taken with the temporary workforce, for example, or those sorts of levers that you're pulling as an organization as you go through this softer top line patch.

然後是我的第二個。我想，湯姆，在上次通話中，你談到這仍然是一個很好的工業環境。顯然，去庫存已經對事情造成了一些影響，並想知道是否可能對臨時勞動力採取任何額外的成本措施，例如，或者您作為一個組織在運作過程中使用的那些槓桿通過這個較軟的頂線貼片。

Yes. Julian, absolutely. I mean we're pretty good at that. I mean that's in our pedigree, our track record. We'll make all those variable cost adjustments whether it's over time, temps, et cetera, ratcheting back and having the whole variable cost structure match the order entry output. And we have some -- you can utilize attrition. There's a lot of things you can do to help you get there and we track that religiously. So I would expect that, that would not be a problem for us.

是的。朱利安，絕對是。我的意思是我們在這方面非常擅長。我的意思是，這是我們的血統和記錄。我們將進行所有這些可變成本調整，無論是隨著時間的推移、臨時工等，逐步回升並使整個可變成本結構與訂單輸入輸出相匹配。我們有一些——你可以利用自然損耗。您可以做很多事情來幫助您實現這一目標，我們會認真地追蹤這些事情。所以我希望這對我們來說不會成為問題。

This concludes our Q&A for today and our earnings call. Thank you for joining us. Robin will be available to take your calls if you have any further questions. Thanks, everyone. Have a great day.

我們今天的問答和財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您加入我們。如果您還有任何其他問題，羅賓將接聽您的電話。感謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。