派克漢尼汾 (PH) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference may be recorded.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾 2019 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明） 提醒一下，今天的會議可能會被錄音。

I'd now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Ms. Cathy Suever, Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，Cathy Suever 女士，她是財務和行政執行副總裁兼財務長。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Good morning, welcome to Parker Hannifin's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Release Teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks.

謝謝，莉茲。早安，歡迎參加派克漢尼汾 2019 年第四季財報發布電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有董事長兼執行長湯姆威廉斯 (Tom Williams)；李‧班克斯 (Lee Banks) 總裁兼營運長。

Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for 1 year following today's call. On slides #2 and 3, you'll find the company's safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com.

今天的簡報幻燈片以及音訊網路廣播重播將在今天的電話會議後一年內透過公司的投資者資訊網站 phstock.com 提供。在投影片 #2 和 3 上，您會發現該公司的安全港揭露聲明，其中涉及前瞻性聲明以及非公認會計準則財務指標。今天早上的新聞稿中包含了所有提及非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表，並且也發佈在 Parker 的網站 phstock.com 上。

Today's agenda appears on Slide #4. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing comments and highlights from the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2019. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2019 performance together with guidance for fiscal year 2020. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session.

今天的議程出現在幻燈片#4 上。首先，我們的董事長兼執行長 Tom Williams 將提供 2019 年第四季和整個財年的評論和亮點。根據 Tom 的評論，我將回顧公司第四季和 2019 財年的業績以及 2020 財年的指導。然後，湯姆將提供一些總結意見，我們將開始問答環節。

Please refer now to Slide #5 and Tom will get us started.

現在請參閱幻燈片#5，湯姆將帶我們開始。

Thanks, Cathy, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for your participation.

謝謝，凱西，大家早安。感謝您的參與。

Looking at Slide 5. We had a strong fourth quarter and completed Parker's best year ever in our history. But before I jump into all the results, I want to just pause for a minute and reflect on the remarkable transformation of our company. Parker's a very different company now, delivering record performance and better able to perform through market cycles. We have a stronger portfolio of businesses following the 3 transformational acquisitions we've done the last 3 years. If you look at performance and go back the last 5 years, adjusted operating margin percent has improved 280 basis points and adjusted EBITDA margins improved over 300 basis points.

看投影片 5。我們第四季表現強勁，完成了帕克歷史上最好的一年。但在討論所有結果之前，我想暫停一分鐘，反思我們公司的顯著轉型。帕克現在是一家截然不同的公司，業績創歷史新高，並且能夠在市場週期中表現得更好。經過過去 3 年的 3 次轉型收購，我們擁有了更強大的業務組合。如果你回顧過去 5 年的業績，你會發現調整後的營業利潤率提高了 280 個基點，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 300 個基點以上。

We are a better performer over the cycle. We have always been good on cash flow over the cycle, but now we're much better on EPS and margins over the cycle. Particularly, if you note our margin performance during the '15 and '16 industrial recession and our margin performance just in last quarter, in Q4, on negative order growth, they all point to the improved performance that I was referring to.

我們在整個週期中表現得更好。我們在整個週期的現金流方面一直表現良好，但現在我們在整個週期的每股盈餘和利潤率方面要好得多。特別是，如果您注意到我們在 15 年和 16 年工業衰退期間的利潤率表現，以及上個季度第四季度訂單負增長的利潤率表現，它們都表明我所指的業績有所改善。

On the 3 acquisitions, they're going to lift the company up on 2 levels: portfolio and performance. On the portfolio side, we've wanted to add filtration, engineered materials in Aerospace. These are parts that we have talked about, wanted to add to because of their resilience over the cycle. On the performance side, we're adding 3 great businesses that are accretive to growth and to margins. Our goal here through The Win Strategy and our capital deployment strategy is to build a better business that generates higher growth, margins and cash flow through the business cycle. And you're seeing evidence of that already. Ultimately, this is going to result in Parker being a best-in-class company. So my thanks to all the Parker team members that are listening in for all their hard work last year but really over the last several years to get us to this point.

在這 3 次收購中，他們將在兩個層面上提升公司：投資組合和績效。在產品組合方面，我們希望在航空航太領域添加過濾工程材料。這些是我們已經討論過的部分，由於它們在整個週期中的彈性而想要添加到其中。在業績方面，我們增加了 3 項能夠促進成長和利潤的出色業務。我們透過獲勝策略和資本部署策略的目標是建立更好的業務，在整個商業週期中產生更高的成長、利潤和現金流。你已經看到了這方面的證據。最終，這將使 Parker 成為一流的公司。因此，我要感謝所有帕克團隊成員，感謝他們去年的辛勤工作，以及過去幾年的辛勤工作，才讓我們走到了這一步。

If you turn to Slide 6, part of what is transforming the company is our business model and the competitive differentiators that makes us special. I'm going to just talk through these bullets on this page briefly. The Win Strategy, it's our business system. It is the engine behind our results. Our decentralized divisional structure really drives an entrepreneurial spirit in the company. The 8 motion and control technologies that we have really creates that breadth of our portfolio. And this strategically positions us to have a big advantage versus our competition. And recognizing the fact that I've talked about before, 60% of our revenue comes from customers that buy 4 or more of those technologies. That's a good evidence that our customers value that breadth of technologies. Our strong intellectual property, 85% of our portfolio and typically what we ship has some element of intellectual property tied to it. We have long product life cycles, decades long as a goal, balanced OEM and aftermarket. And we have arguably the best distribution channel in the motion and control space. We have low CapEx requirements. Our lean transformation has really driven a low CapEx to drive our business and that enables us to have a very robust capital deployment process. And we're great generators and deployers of cash, and you've seen this in action over the last 5 years in that regard.

如果你翻到投影片 6，你會發現公司轉型的部分原因是我們的商業模式和讓我們與眾不同的競爭優勢。我將簡要討論本頁上的這些項目符號。制勝策略，這是我們的業務系統。它是我們成果背後的引擎。我們分散的部門結構確實激發了公司的創業精神。我們擁有的 8 項運動和控制技術真正創造了我們產品組合的廣度。這在策略上使我們在競爭中擁有巨大優勢。我們意識到我之前談到的事實，因此 60% 的收入來自購買 4 種或更多這些技術的客戶。這是一個很好的證據，顯示我們的客戶重視技術的廣度。我們擁有強大的智慧財產權，我們 85% 的產品組合以及通常我們出貨的產品都包含一些與之相關的智慧財產權元素。我們的產品生命週期較長，目標長達數十年，並且平衡 OEM 和售後市場。我們可以說擁有運動和控制領域最好的通路。我們的資本支出要求較低。我們的精實轉型確實以較低的資本支出來推動我們的業務發展，這使我們能夠擁有非常強大的資本部署流程。我們是偉大的現金創造者和部署者，過去五年你已經看到了這方面的實際情況。

So if you turn to Slide 7, some highlights from the fourth quarter. Safety continues to be our top priority. Our recordable incidents for the quarter were down 24%. Our high-performance teams are helping to drive these results. Our goal is 0 incidents. That's not an aspirational goal. It's really an expectation of how we're going to run the company. And the ownership culture that's created from the high-performance team process and the start of the safety is going to be applied also to quality, cost and delivery, and that will naturally lift up the performance of the company.

因此，如果您翻到幻燈片 7，您會看到第四季度的一些亮點。安全仍然是我們的首要任務。本季我們的可記錄事件下降了 24%。我們的高績效團隊正在幫助推動這些成果。我們的目標是零事故。這不是一個理想的目標。這確實是我們對如何經營公司的期望。從高績效團隊流程和安全開始創建的主人翁文化也將應用於品質、成本和交付，這自然會提升公司的績效。

All-time quarterly records for the fourth quarter, total segment operating margin, total industrial segment operating margin, net income and EPS. A couple other notes on the quarter. Sales were negative 3.5%. That was composed of a negative 2% on organic and a negative 1.5% on currency. Orders declined 3% against some tough comparables. And we had a fourth quarter record on Industrial International segment margins as well. My thanks to the international team for a great job in the quarter.

第四季的歷史季度記錄、部門總營業利潤率、工業部門總營業利潤率、淨利潤和每股收益。關於本季的其他一些說明。銷售額負3.5%。其中包括 2% 的有機利率負值和 1.5% 的貨幣負值利率。與一些艱難的可比較訂單相比，訂單下降了 3%。我們的工業國際部門第四季利潤率也創下歷史新高。我感謝國際團隊在本季的出色工作。

So now I want to turn to full year results for FY '19. We had a number of all-time records. Of course, we only do records on a reported basis. They are sales, total segment operative margins, net income, EPS and operating cash flow.

現在我想談談 19 財年的全年業績。我們創造了多項歷史記錄。當然，我們只在報告的基礎上進行記錄。它們是銷售額、部門總營業利潤率、淨利潤、每股收益和營運現金流。

A couple other highlights for the full year. We came in on organic growth of 2.6% organic sales, outpacing global industrial production. We had excellent improvement in segment operating margin and EBITDA margins versus the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margins, if you go back to when we acquired CLARCOR, we were at 14.7%. We're now at 18.2%. From an EBITDA dollar standpoint, we were at $1.7 billion and now we're at $2.6 billion. That growth in margins, that growth in EBITDA dollars has really helped enable us to do both the LORD and Exotic acquisitions that we recently announced. We achieved 17% segment operating margins 1 year ahead of our original target. And the first time in our history that we reached 17%, a number that we're extremely proud of. And obviously, we're not stopping there, but it was a huge milestone for us to reach. Tremendous cash flow generation resulting in $1.7 billion in operating cash. When you do it on a percent basis, we came in at 12.1% CFOA. And excluding the pension contribution, that would be 13.5%.

全年還有其他一些亮點。我們的有機銷售額成長了 2.6%，超過了全球工業生產。與前一年相比，我們的分部營業利潤率和 EBITDA 利潤率有了顯著改善。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率，如果你回到我們收購 CLARCOR 時，我們的利潤率為 14.7%。我們現在是 18.2%。從 EBITDA 美元的角度來看，我們之前為 17 億美元，現在為 26 億美元。利潤率的成長和 EBITDA 美元的成長確實幫助我們完成了最近宣布的 Lord 和 Exotic 收購。我們比原定目標提前一年實現了 17% 的部門營業利潤率。我們歷史上首次達到 17%，我們對此感到非常自豪。顯然，我們不會就此止步，但這對我們來說是一個巨大的里程碑。產生大量現金流，產生 17 億美元的營運現金。如果以百分比計算，我們的 CFOA 為 12.1%。如果不包括退休金繳款，則為 13.5%。

Switching to cash and capital deployment. The goal, and you've heard me talk about this, is to be great generators and deployers of cash. So on the cash generation side, we ended FY '19 at 115% free cash flow conversion. That makes 18 consecutive years of free cash flow conversion greater than 100%. And on the deployment side, it was a big year. Dividends, our stated target is to pay out 30%, 35% of net income. And as a result of our growth in net income, we increased annual dividends paid out by 13%. We had our 63rd consecutive year of annual increases to dividends paid out, a record we're very proud of as well and one that we intend to keep. We announced 2 transformational acquisitions. And on the share repurchase side, we did $200 million on our 10b5-1 program, and we purchased $600 million on a discretionary basis. Debt reduction is going to be a high priority going forward. Our target within 3 years is to get 2.0 multiple from a gross debt-to-EBITDA multiple, and we'll pause on M&A activity until we get there.

轉向現金和資本配置。你們已經聽過我談論過，我們的目標是成為偉大的現金創造者和部署者。因此，在現金產生方面，2019 財年結束時，我們的自由現金流量轉換率為 115%。這使得自由現金流轉換連續18年大於100%。在部署方面，這是重要的一年。股息，我們規定的目標是支付淨利的30%、35%。由於淨利潤增長，我們支付的年度股息增加了 13%。我們連續第 63 年增加支付股息，這是我們非常自豪的記錄，也是我們打算保持的記錄。我們宣布了兩項轉型性收購。在股票回購方面，我們在 10b5-1 計劃上投入了 2 億美元，並酌情購買了 6 億美元。減少債務將是未來的首要任務。我們的目標是在 3 年內將總債務與 EBITDA 的倍數提高到 2.0 倍，在實現這一目標之前，我們將暫停併購活動。

Just a few comments on the acquisitions that are really going to generate great value for our shareholders. We announced in the last 90 days the acquisition of the LORD Corporation and Exotic Metals, transformational to our portfolio, adding to our Engineered Materials business and in the Aerospace Group with high growth and high-margin businesses. When you look at the pro forma EBITDA margin, take legacy Parker with LORD and Exotic and you forecast that out 5 years, we're going to improve EBITDA margins by more than 400 basis points over that 5-year period of time. That's really going to help propel us to be in that top-quartile company that we desire. And both of these companies I'm referring to, LORD and Exotic, are both great cultural fits, and we expect a seamless integration.

關於真正將為我們的股東創造巨大價值的收購的一些評論。我們在過去 90 天內宣布收購 Lord Corporation 和 Exotic Metals，這對我們的投資組合進行了轉型，增加了我們的工程材料業務以及航空航天集團的高成長和高利潤業務。當您查看預估的 EBITDA 利潤率時，以傳統 Parker 與 Lord 和 Exotic 為例，您預測 5 年後，我們將在 5 年內將 EBITDA 利潤率提高 400 個基點以上。這確實有助於推動我們躋身我們所期望的前四分之一的公司。我所指的這兩家公司，LORD 和 Exotic，都具有很好的文化契合度，我們期待無縫整合。

Now turning to the outlook. We're issuing guidance for FY 2020. We've got moderating market conditions. We're forecasting sales of negative 3% to flat, so minus 1.5% at the midpoint, and I'll talk more about that during the Q&A. I think the effectiveness of The Win Strategy has really been observed when you look at our FY '20 guide. Historically, on negative organic growth, we would be reducing margins. But with this guidance, we're expanding segment operating margins and we're posting a record EPS. Adjusted EPS is at $11.50 to $12.30 or $11.90 at the midpoint. Business realignment of $20 million, and we did not include LORD or Exotic in this FY '20 guidance. We will, of course, update guidance after they close.

現在轉向前景。我們正在發布 2020 財年指南。我們的市場狀況正在放緩。我們預測銷售額為負 3% 至持平，因此中間為負 1.5%，我將在問答中詳細討論這一點。我認為，當您查看我們的 20 財年指南時，您確實可以觀察到「制勝策略」的有效性。從歷史上看，如果有機成長出現負成長，我們就會降低利潤率。但根據這項指導，我們正在擴大部門營業利潤，並且我們將公佈創紀錄的每股收益。調整後每股收益為 11.50 美元至 12.30 美元，中間為 11.90 美元。業務調整金額為 2000 萬美元，我們在 20 財年的指導中沒有包括 Lord 或 Exotic。當然，我們會在關閉後更新指導。

So going forward, really, if you look at the FY '19 results, FY '20 guide, coupled with the momentum that we have with The Win Strategy and our recent acquisitions, we're well on our way to achieving our FY '23 targets. And just to remind people, those targets by FY '23 are: sales growth of 150 basis points greater than global industrial production growth over the cycle, segment operating margins of 19%, EBITDA margins of 20%, free cash flow conversion greater than 100% and EPS CAGR over that time period of 10%-plus. The actions we're taking and dedication of our global team members are really helping to generate strong returns for our shareholders.

因此，展望未來，實際上，如果您查看 19 財年的業績、20 財年的指南，再加上我們透過「獲勝策略」和最近的收購所取得的勢頭，我們正在順利實現 23 財年的目標目標。只是提醒人們，到 23 財年的目標是：整個週期內銷售成長比全球工業生產成長高出 150 個基點，部門營業利潤率為 19%，EBITDA 利潤率為 20%，自由現金流轉換大於 100 %和EPS 複合年增長率超過10%。我們正在採取的行動和全球團隊成員的奉獻精神確實有助於為我們的股東創造豐厚的回報。

And with that, I'll hand it back to Cathy for a more detailed review of the quarter.

然後，我會將其交還給 Cathy，以便對該季度進行更詳細的審查。

Thanks, Tom. I'd like you to now refer to Slide #8. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2019 compared to 2018.

謝謝，湯姆。我希望您現在參考投影片 #8。這張投影片展示了與 2018 年相比，2019 財年第四季和全年的報告和調整後每股盈餘。

Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter increased 3% compared to the prior year reaching $3.31. Adjustments from 2019 as reported results totaled $0.14, including business realignment expenses of $0.04 and LORD acquisition and integration expenses of $0.10. This compares to fiscal 2018 adjustments of $0.60 for business realignment expenses, CLARCOR costs to achieve, a net loss on sale and write-down of assets and a U.S. Tax Reform adjustment.

第四季調整後每股盈餘較上年同期成長 3%，達到 3.31 美元。報告結果與 2019 年相比的調整總額為 0.14 美元，其中包括 0.04 美元的業務調整費用以及 0.10 美元的LORD 收購和整合費用。相比之下，2018 財年因業務調整費用、CLARCOR 實現成本、資產出售和減記淨損失以及美國稅收改革調整而調整了 0.60 美元。

For the full year, adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2019 was $11.85, an increase of 14% compared to fiscal 2018. Adjustments from the 2019 as reported results totaled $0.37. This compares to fiscal 2018 adjustments of $2.59. The details of all of these adjustments are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures.

全年來看，2019財年調整後每股收益為11.85美元，較2018財年成長14%。與 2019 年報告結果相比的調整總計 0.37 美元。相比之下，2018 財年的調整額為 2.59 美元。所有這些調整的詳細資訊都包含在非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表中。

Moving to Slide #9. You'll find the significant components of the $0.09 walk from prior year fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share to $3.31 for the fourth quarter of this year. We gained $0.04 from lower corporate G&A, interest expense and other expense. Lower income tax expense accounted for $0.06 and lower average share count contributed $0.11. Offsetting these gains, segment operating income decreased by $0.12 as a result of lower volume with sales down 3.6% versus the prior year quarter and also as a result of higher development costs incurred in our Aerospace segment.

轉到幻燈片#9。您會發現，今年第四季調整後每股收益從去年第四季調整後每股收益 0.09 美元上漲至 3.31 美元，其中的重要組成部分。我們從較低的公司管理費用、利息費用和其他費用中獲得了 0.04 美元的收益。較低的所得稅費用為 0.06 美元，較低的平均股數為 0.11 美元。抵銷這些收益的是，由於銷量下降，銷售額較上年同期下降 3.6%，以及航空航天部門的開發成本增加，該部門營業收入下降了 0.12 美元。

Moving to Slide 10. You'll find the significant components of the $1.43 walk from adjusted earnings per share of $10.42 for fiscal 2018 to $11.85 for this year. The largest improvement came from segment operating income. This accounted for an increase of $0.79 with total segment margins improving by 100 basis points year-over-year. $0.14 came from lower interest expense. Lower income tax expense accounted for $0.19 and reduced average shares contributed $0.31.

轉到投影片 10。您會發現，調整後每股收益從 2018 財年的 10.42 美元增至今年的 11.85 美元，漲幅為 1.43 美元。最大的改善來自於分部營業收入。這增加了 0.79 美元，部門總利潤率比去年同期提高了 100 個基點。0.14 美元來自較低的利息支出。較低的所得稅費用為 0.19 美元，減少的平均股票費用為 0.31 美元。

Slide 11 shows total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the fourth quarter and full year 2019. For the fourth quarter, organic sales decreased year-over-year by 1.9% and currency had a negative impact of 1.7%. Despite a decline in sales, the fourth quarter total segment operating margin on an adjusted basis improved to 17.6% versus 17.5% last year. This improvement reflects productivity improvements and the benefits of synergies from acquisitions, combined with the positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives. For the full year, organic sales increased by 2.6% and total segment operating margins increased 100 basis points to 17.2%.

投影片 11 顯示了 Parker 2019 年第四季和全年的總銷售額和部門營業利潤率。第四季度，有機銷售額年減 1.9%，匯率帶來 1.7% 的負面影響。儘管銷售額下降，第四季度調整後的部門總營業利潤率從去年的 17.5% 提高至 17.6%。這項改進反映了生產力的提高和收購帶來的協同效應的好處，以及我們的獲勝策略舉措的正面影響。全年有機銷售額成長 2.6%，部門總營業利潤率成長 100 個基點至 17.2%。

Moving to Slide 12. I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the fourth quarter, North America organic sales were down 3.2%. Even with lower sales, operating margin improved nicely for the fourth quarter to 18.4% on an adjusted basis. North America continued to deliver improved margins, which reflects the hard work dedicated to productivity improvements as well as synergies from acquisitions and the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. For the full year, North America organic sales increased 1.8% and adjusted margins increased 30 basis points to 16.9%.

轉到投影片 12。我將討論業務部門，首先是北美多元化工業部門。第四季度，北美有機銷售額下降 3.2%。儘管銷售額較低，第四季度營業利潤率在調整後仍大幅提高至 18.4%。北美地區的利潤率持續提高，這反映了致力於提高生產力的辛勤工作以及收購帶來的協同效應以及我們的獲勝策略舉措的影響。全年，北美有機銷售額成長 1.8%，調整後利潤率成長 30 個基點至 16.9%。

I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide 13. Organic sales for the fourth quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 4.1%. Currency also negatively impacted the quarter by 4.5%. Despite the lower sales, operating margin for the fourth quarter 2019 on an adjusted basis improved 30 basis points to 16.4% of sales. This margin performance reflects our team's improved operating cost efficiencies from realignment initiatives and the benefits of The Win Strategy. For the full year, organic sales for Industrial International increased 1.1% and adjusted operating margins increased by 110 basis points to finish the year at 16.4%.

我將繼續幻燈片 13 上的多元化工業國際部分。工業國際部門第四季的有機銷售額下降了 4.1%。貨幣也對本季產生了 4.5% 的負面影響。儘管銷售額下降，2019 年第四季調整後的營業利潤率仍提高了 30 個基點，佔銷售額的 16.4%。這項利潤率表現反映了我們團隊透過重組措施提高了營運成本效率以及致勝策略的優勢。全年，興業國際的有機銷售額成長 1.1%，調整後營業利益率成長 110 個基點，全年利潤率達到 16.4%。

I'll now move to Slide 14 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic sales increased 6.5% during the fourth quarter primarily due to commercial and military OE growth, along with growth in commercial aftermarket. Operating margin for the fourth quarter decreased by 200 basis points due to higher development costs in the quarter and a lower mix of military aftermarket sales as compared to the prior year. For the full year, our Aerospace Systems segment delivered great organic sales growth of 8.5% and an impressive 210 basis point improvement in adjusted segment margin, finishing the year at 19.4%.

我現在將轉到幻燈片 14 回顧航空航天系統部分。第四季有機銷售額成長 6.5%，主要得益於商業和軍用原配設備的成長以及商業售後市場的成長。由於本季開發成本增加以及軍事售後市場銷售組合較上年同期減少，第四季營業利潤率下降了 200 個基點。全年，我們的航空航天系統部門實現了 8.5% 的有機銷售大幅增長，調整後部門利潤率顯著提高了 210 個基點，全年利潤率達到 19.4%。

On Slide 15, you'll find the differences in fiscal year 2019 earnings per share between our full year guidance going into the quarter compared to the actual results from the outperformance in the fourth quarter. Final full year earnings per share on an adjusted basis was $0.25 higher than previously guided. At the operations level, segment operating income finished $0.01 higher than expected driven by productivity improvements despite the lower-than-expected sales. Lower corporate G&A, interest and other expense resulted in an additional $0.06. We benefited $0.16 from lower income tax expense due to discrete tax adjustments and additional benefits resulting from new regulations related to U.S. Tax Reform recognized in the quarter. And lastly, we benefited $0.02 from lower average shares.

在投影片 15 上，您會發現我們進入本季的全年指引與第四季表現優異的實際結果相比，2019 財年每股盈餘存在差異。調整後的最終全年每股收益比先前指導的高出 0.25 美元。在營運層面，儘管銷售額低於預期，但由於生產力提高，部門營運收入比預期高出 0.01 美元。較低的公司管理費用、利息和其他費用導致額外增加 0.06 美元。由於離散的稅收調整以及本季認可的與美國稅收改革相關的新法規帶來的額外收益，我們受益於較低的所得稅費用 0.16 美元。最後，我們從較低的平均股價中獲益 0.02 美元。

On Slide 16, we report cash flow from operating activities. We had strong cash flow this whole year. Full year 2019 cash flow from operating activities was a record $1.73 billion. When adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution made during the first quarter, cash flow from operations was 13.5% of sales. This compares to 11.2% of sales for the same period last year.

在投影片 16 中，我們報告了經營活動產生的現金流量。我們全年現金流強勁。2019 年全年經營活動現金流量達到創紀錄的 17.3 億美元。根據第一季 2 億美元的可自由支配退休金繳款進行調整後，營運現金流佔銷售額的 13.5%。相比之下，去年同期的銷售額為 11.2%。

On Slide 17, we show a history of Parker's free cash flow conversion rate. For the 18th consecutive year, Parker generated free cash flow conversion of greater than 100%, finishing fiscal year 2019 at 115%. Parker is great at cash generation even during growth periods. We're very proud of our team for their good management of working capital.

在幻燈片 17 上，我們展示了 Parker 自由現金流轉換率的歷史記錄。Parker 連續 18 年實現了超過 100% 的自由現金流轉換，2019 財年結束時為 115%。即使在成長期，帕克也擅長創造現金。我們對我們的團隊對營運資金的良好管理感到非常自豪。

Moving to Slide 18. We show the details of order rates by segment. Total orders decreased by 3% as of the quarter ending June. This year-over-year decline is a consolidation of minus 4% within Diversified Industrial North America, minus 8% within Diversified Industrial International and a positive 10% within Aerospace Systems orders.

轉到投影片 18。我們按細分顯示訂單率的詳細資訊。截至 6 月底的季度，訂單總數下降了 3%。北美多元化工業訂單年減-4%，多元化工業國際訂單較去年同期下降-8%，航太系統訂單較去年同期下降10%。

The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year 2020 is outlined on Slide 19. Guidance is being provided on both an as reported and an adjusted basis. Total sales for the year are now expected to decrease 1.5% compared to the prior year within a range of minus 3% to 0%. Anticipated organic growth for the full year is forecasted in approximately the same range at a midpoint of minus 1.5%. There's no prior year acquisition or divestiture impact and the currency impact is expected to be minimal. We've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended June 30, 2019, and we've held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for fiscal year 2020.

投影片 19 概述了 2020 財年的全年獲利指引。正在根據報告和調整後的基礎上提供指導。目前預計今年的總銷售額將比前一年下降 1.5%，幅度介於負 3% 至 0% 之間。預計全年有機成長大致在相同範圍內，中點為-1.5%。沒有上一年度的收購或剝離影響，預計貨幣影響也很小。我們計算了截至 2019 年 6 月 30 日的季度貨幣對即期匯率的影響，並在估計 2020 財年的同比影響時保持這些匯率穩定。

You can see the forecasted as reported and adjusted operating margins by segment. At the midpoint, total Parker adjusted margins are forecasted to increase approximately 20 basis points from prior year. For guidance, we are estimating an adjusted range of 17.2% to 17.6% for the full fiscal year. The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%.

您可以按部門查看報告和調整後的預測營業利潤率。中點時，帕克調整後的總利潤率預計將比前一年增加約 20 個基點。作為指導，我們預計整個財年的調整範圍為 17.2% 至 17.6%。全年有效稅率預計為23%。

For the full year, the guidance range on an as reported earnings per share basis is $11.38 to $12.18 or $11.78 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is $11.50 to $12.30 or $11.90 at the midpoint. The adjustments to the as reported forecast made in this guidance include business realignment expenses of approximately $20 million or $0.12 per share for the full year fiscal 2020 with the associated savings projected to be $10 million.

就全年而言，基於報告的每股收益的指導範圍為 11.38 美元至 12.18 美元，中間值為 11.78 美元。根據調整後每股收益，指導範圍為 11.50 美元至 12.30 美元，中間值為 11.90 美元。本指南中對報告預測的調整包括 2020 財年全年約 2,000 萬美元或每股 0.12 美元的業務調整費用，相關節省預計為 1,000 萬美元。

Some additional key assumptions for full year 2020 guidance at the midpoint are: Sales are divided 47% first half, 53% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is divided 46% first half, 54% second half. Adjusted earnings per share first half, second half is divided 45%, 55%. First quarter fiscal 2020 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.66 per share at the midpoint, and this excludes $0.04 of projected business realignment expenses.

2020 年全年指引的一些額外關鍵假設包括： 上半年銷售額佔 47%，下半年銷售額佔 53%。調整後分部營業收入分為上半年46%、下半年54%。調整後每股盈餘上半年、下半年分為45%、55%。2020 財年第一季調整後每股盈餘預計為每股 2.66 美元，其中不包括 0.04 美元的預期業務調整費用。

On Slide 20, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of fiscal year 2020 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $11.90 per share at the midpoint compared to the prior year of $11.85 per share. Increases include $0.07 from corporate G&A, $0.55 from other expense and $0.13 from lower average shares. Other expense includes $0.35 of interest income from the proceeds of the bonds that we issued in June 2019 which are being held for the LORD transaction. The remainder in other is primarily related to numerous unusual charges incurred in fiscal 2019 that are not expected to repeat in 2020.

在投影片 20 上，您會發現 2020 財年調整後每股收益指引的主要組成部分為中點 11.90 美元，而上一年為每股 11.85 美元。增加的費用包括來自公司管理費用的 0.07 美元、來自其他費用的 0.55 美元以及來自較低平均股票的 0.13 美元。其他費用包括我們在 2019 年 6 月發行的債券收益中產生的 0.35 美元利息收入，這些債券是為 Lord 交易而持有的。其他的其餘部分主要與 2019 財年發生的大量異常費用有關，預計這些費用在 2020 年不會重複。

Offsetting these increases is a $0.04 per share decrease from segment operating income. The operating income impact from the drop in sales volume will be partially offset by margin improvement throughout the year. The remaining decreases are $0.30 from higher income tax expense and $0.36 per share from higher interest expense. The decrease due to higher income tax expense is from discrete tax items in 2019 that we do not forecast in fiscal 2020. The change in interest expense includes an additional $0.47 in interest cost from the bonds issued in June, partially offset by anticipated lower commercial paper outstanding as compared to fiscal year 2019.

部門營業收入每股減少 0.04 美元，抵消了這些成長。銷售下降對營業收入的影響將被全年利潤率的改善部分抵消。其餘的減少額為 0.30 美元因所得稅費用增加而減少，每股 0.36 美元因利息費用增加而減少。由於所得稅費用增加而導致的減少來自 2019 年的離散稅項，我們預計 2020 財政年度不會出現這些稅項。利息費用的變動包括 6 月發行的債券產生的額外 0.47 美元的利息成本，部分被未償商業票據預計較 2019 財年減少所抵銷。

This forecast does not include any results from our announced acquisitions of LORD Corporation or Exotic Metals Forming Company. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison and that you do not include the pending acquisitions until we are able to close the transactions.

該預測不包括我們宣布收購 Lord Corporation 或 Exotic Metals Forming Company 的任何結果。我們要求您繼續使用調整後的指導發布您的估計，以實現更一致的同比比較，並且在我們能夠完成交易之前，不要包括待決收購。

This concludes my prepared comments. Please turn to Slide #21. I'll turn it over to Tom to provide summary comments.

我準備好的評論到此結束。請轉到投影片#21。我會將其交給 Tom 提供摘要意見。

Thanks, Cathy. So just a couple of quick comments. We're very pleased with our continued progress. We're projecting record year of earnings in FY '20. And we're well on our way to delivering on being a top-quartile company and being that best-in-class company that we are aspiring to be.

謝謝，凱茜。所以我只想簡單說幾句。我們對我們的持續進步感到非常高興。我們預計 20 財年的獲利將創歷史新高。我們正在努力成為一家排名前四分之一的公司，並成為我們渴望成為的一流公司。

My thanks to the global team on their hard work, their dedication, the results from FY '19, and we're looking forward to our bright future together.

我感謝全球團隊的辛勤工作、奉獻精神以及 19 財年的成果，我們共同期待美好的未來。

And with that, Liz, we're happy to start the Q&A portion of the call.

莉茲，我們很高興開始電話問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的傑米·庫克（Jamie Cook）。

Nice quarter. I guess just first question, Tom. If you could just provide some context around how you're thinking about the organic growth guide for 2020. What's implied for sort of first half versus second half? And then what you're seeing in terms of -- you mentioned channel inventory before, how long that continues to weigh on results versus clear the channel? So I guess start there. And then, yes, I guess, why don't we start there if that's fine.

不錯的季度。我想這只是第一個問題，湯姆。您能否提供一些有關您如何看待 2020 年有機成長指南的背景資訊？上半場和下半場意味著什麼？然後你所看到的——你之前提到過渠道庫存，與清理渠道相比，它會持續影響結果多久？所以我想從這裡開始。然後，是的，我想，如果可以的話我們為什麼不從那裡開始呢？

Okay. Jamie, it's Tom. Happy to do that because that's obviously probably top of mind for everybody. So let me take you through our assumptions. And obviously, this process that we do is, we're one of the first companies to start talking about calendar '20. We take a lot of input from customers, distributors, our divisions, of course, and our own economic models. So the organic growth that we talked about at the midpoint of minus 1.5%, that turns into a first half of minus 4%, which really mirrors our current order entry, and a second half of plus 1%. So on the second half, we have slightly better volume, a little bit easier comps. If you look at that minus 1.5% organically on a regional basis, it's North America at minus 1.5%, International at minus 4.5% and Aerospace at a plus 4.5%. I'm kind of rounding to halves here as I go through it.

好的。傑米，是湯姆。很高興這樣做，因為這顯然可能是每個人最關心的事情。那麼讓我帶您來了解我們的假設。顯然，我們所做的這個過程是，我們是最早開始談論日曆 '20 的公司之一。我們從客戶、經銷商、我們的部門，當然還有我們自己的經濟模型中獲得了大量的意見。因此，我們在中點談到的自然成長為-1.5%，這變成了上半年的負4%，這確實反映了我們目前的訂單輸入，下半年則為+1%。所以在下半場，我們的比賽量稍微好一些，比賽也比較容易。如果你以地區來看負 1.5%，北美地區為負 1.5%，國際地區為負 4.5%，航空航太地區為正 4.5%。當我經歷它時，我有點四捨五入到一半。

While it's not a predictor of our future. There's another important data point that we've looked at, and that's our pressure curve history. If you look at the last 10 years, anytime the 3/12 curve has gone less than 1, it tends to go down to less than 1 for a 12- to 18-month duration depending on where that particular business cycle is. Our current pressure curves have been less than 1 for about 7 months. So this guidance assumes that the 3/12 curve crosses 1 approximately 15 months from when it started. So not too different from what we had seen in other cycles. Of course, that's our best estimate at this time.

雖然它不能預測我們的未來。我們也研究了另一個重要的數據點，那就是我們的壓力曲線歷史。如果你看看過去 10 年，只要 3/12 曲線小於 1，它就會在 12 到 18 個月的時間內下降到小於 1，這取決於特定的經濟週期。我們目前的壓力曲線已連續 7 個月低於 1。因此，本指南假設 3/12 曲線從開始後約 15 個月與 1 相交。所以與我們在其他週期中看到的情況並沒有太大不同。當然，這是我們目前最好的估計。

Let me take you through the markets that we see for FY '20, and I'll give you a little color as to what we think is driving the second half. I'm going to make just a clarifying comment like I usually do. I'm going to list markets in positive, neutral, negative. This is our forecast for the market. Don't take my comments because I'm speaking about the entire market. It's just how Parker is going to perform in the market. So on the positive side is aerospace, forestry and life sciences. On neutral, which is a pretty big section, agriculture, construction, distribution, lawn and turf, material handling, oil and gas, power gen, refrigeration, semicon, telecom and ground military and defense. On the negative side is automotive, engines, heavy-duty truck, machine tools, marine, mills and foundries, mining, rail and tires and rubber.

讓我帶您了解我們對 20 財年的市場預測，然後我將向您介紹我們認為下半年的推動因素。我將像往常一樣發表澄清評論。我將把市場分為正面、中性和負面。這是我們對市場的預測。不要接受我的評論，因為我正在談論整個市場。這就是帕克在市場上的表現。因此，積極的一面是航空航天、林業和生命科學。在中立方面，這是一個相當大的部分，包括農業、建築、分銷、草坪和草皮、材料處理、石油和天然氣、發電、製冷、半導體、電信以及地面軍事和國防。不利的方面是汽車、引擎、重型卡車、工具機、船舶、工廠和鑄造廠、採礦、鐵路、輪胎和橡膠。

So what's driving the markets in our view in the second half besides some help on easier comparables will be one part, which is what you're alluding to earlier, Jamie, on distribution. The destocking that we were seeing really in Q3 and Q4 will continue for the first half but at a diminishing rate. And then we'll be pretty much at equilibrium in our view on the distribution channel coming into this calendar year. And that turns to a slight positive for the second half. Life sciences will be positive for us in the second half as well as power gen turning from negative to positive in the second half. So that's one category. Things that we see moving to positive in the second half.

因此，我們認為，除了對更容易比較的一些幫助之外，下半年推動市場發展的因素之一將是傑米，你之前提到的關於分銷的內容。我們在第三季和第四季真正看到的去庫存現象將在上半年繼續下去，但速度會逐漸減弱。然後我們對今年的分銷管道的看法將基本處於平衡狀態。這對下半場來說是一個輕微的正面影響。生命科學將在下半年對我們產生正面影響，發電也將在下半年由負轉正。這是一類。我們看到下半年的情況正在朝著正面的方向發展。

There's another big category of markets that are currently negative that we see is going to neutral in the second half. So they won't necessarily provide us tailwind, but they become less of a headwind obviously. So the negative to neutral ones first half to second half, I'm just going to list these out, are construction, oil and gas, semicon, automotive, machine tools, mining, rail, mills and foundries again and tires.

目前還有一大類市場處於負面狀態，我們認為下半年將轉為中性。因此，它們不一定會給我們帶來順風，但顯然它們的逆風會減少。因此，從上半年到下半年的負面因素到中性因素，我將列出這些，包括建築、石油和天然氣、半導體、汽車、工具機、採礦、鐵路、工廠和鑄造廠以及輪胎。

So I'm pretty optimistic. When you look at the 3/12 curves, they are less than 1 but they're flattening. So that's a positive indicator. When you look at our 4 phases of the business cycle, we have about 2/3 of our markets that are in Phase 3, Phase 3 being the accelerating decline phase of a 4-phase business cycle. And what that signals to us is that we're moving our way through the soft patch because the next phase after accelerating decline is decelerating decline, which means you're starting to move out of that. And then the next phase after that is growth.

所以我非常樂觀。當您查看 3/12 曲線時，它們小於 1，但它們正在變平。所以這是一個正面的指標。當你觀察我們商業週期的 4 個階段時，我們大約有 2/3 的市場處於第 3 階段，第 3 階段是 4 個階段商業週期的加速衰退階段。這向我們發出的信號是，我們正在走出疲軟期，因為加速衰退後的下一個階段是減速衰退，這意味著你正在開始擺脫這種狀態。之後的下一個階段是成長。

So in our view, there's lots of self-help here. The markets are going to turn. And they're going to start to help us, albeit a little bit later in FY '20, but will start to provide some small tailwind. The Win Strategy is producing margin expansion for us in a negative organic sales environment. We've got the 2 transformational acquisitions in LORD and Exotic that bring in higher growth and margins. And just about the time that we close these deals and really get the integration really up and running is also going to be about the time these markets start to come back and start to give us some slight tailwinds. So I think that all is going to align very nicely.

所以在我們看來，這裡有很多自助的地方。市場將會發生轉變。他們將開始幫助我們，儘管在 20 財年稍晚一些，但將開始提供一些小的推動力。獲勝策略在不利的有機銷售環境中為我們帶來了利潤成長。我們對 Lord 和 Exotic 進行了兩次轉型性收購，帶來了更高的成長和利潤。就在我們完成這些交易並真正開始整合並運行的時候，這些市場也將開始回歸並開始為我們帶來一些輕微的推動力。所以我認為一切都會很好地協調起來。

So I feel good about '20. And I think it all comes back to the message I started the call with that we're positioned well for the cycle. And we're going to continue to try to be that best-in-class company. So I don't think you have a follow-up, Jamie, or not.

所以我對20歲感覺很好。我認為這一切都回到了我在通話開始時傳達的訊息，即我們在周期中處於有利位置。我們將繼續努力成為一流的公司。所以我認為你沒有後續行動，傑米，或者沒有。

No. I mean, I think, I guess just if I can have a follow-up. The implied margin resilience that we're going to see in the North American market in 2020 even with the sales decline, just any color in particular on that and then I'll get back in queue.

不。我的意思是，我想，我想我是否可以有後續行動。即使銷售額下降，我們也將在 2020 年在北美市場看到隱含的利潤彈性，只要有任何顏色，然後我就會重新排隊。

Yes. So we have North America going up about 20 basis points versus '19. It's really going to be a continued Win Strategy effort, the productivity that we've got, the kaizen activity that we have is all creating the capacity for us to be more resilient on the margin side. And North America's volume being down, not as bad as international. They're able to hold up the margins and in fact, expand margins because of that.

是的。因此，與 19 年相比，北美上漲了約 20 個基點。這確實是一個持續的勝利策略努力，我們所擁有的生產力，我們所擁有的改善活動都為我們創造了在利潤方面更具彈性的能力。北美的銷量有所下降，但不像國際那麼糟糕。他們能夠保持利潤，事實上，因此擴大了利潤。

Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mig Dobre 和 Baird 的對話。

So Tom, I want to go back to your comments early on when you talked about the transformation of the businesses that this is something that we spend some time speaking with investors about. And one of the questions that, I think, we often get that maybe you can help us with is, when you're looking at your business mix and you look at what traditionally have been perceived as your key customers and key drivers, heavy machinery OEM build, how is your business looking today, especially when you count in LORD and you're counting in CLARCOR as well as Exotic versus, say, the way it looked in fiscal '15, in the last cycle or even the cycle prior to that? Because there's a business mix aspect here that, I think, is perhaps underappreciated even by me.

湯姆，我想回到您早些時候談到業務轉型時的評論，這是我們花了一些時間與投資者談論的事情。我認為，我們經常遇到的問題之一也許你可以幫助我們解決，當你審視你的業務組合時，你會看看傳統上被視為你的關鍵客戶和關鍵驅動因素的重型機械OEM 製造，您的業務今天的情況如何，尤其是當您計算Lord 併計算CLARCOR 以及Exotic 時，與15 財年、上一個週期甚至上一個週期的情況相比那？因為我認為，這裡有一個業務組合方面，甚至連我自己也可能沒有充分認識到這一點。

Yes. No, I think you're right. I mean that was -- as you know, Mig, and everybody else that's been listening on the call, almost all of my investor presentations when I talk about capital deployment, I start talking about, we want to be the consolidator of choice in the space because we like the space and we're #1, so we want to continue to add that. But all things being equal, we'd like to invest a little heavier in filtration, aerospace, engineered materials and instrumentation. You've seen us do 3 out of the 4 so far. And we are on purpose trying to balance out that density that you referred to that we traditionally had maybe in the fluid power side of the company, on our fluid connectors and our motion technologies and add filtration, which is now one of our largest groups. And with LORD, engineered materials will be one of our larger groups. And add to Aerospace which balances out the short-cycle nature of the company with a high-margin business that's got a great growth trajectory.

是的。不，我認為你是對的。我的意思是，正如你所知，米格和其他一直在聽電話會議的人，當我談論資本部署時，我幾乎所有的投資者演講，我開始談論，我們希望成為該領域的首選整合者空間，因為我們喜歡這個空間，而且我們是第一名，所以我們想繼續添加它。但在所有條件相同的情況下，我們希望在過濾、航空航太、工程材料和儀器儀表方面加大投資。到目前為止，您已經看到我們做了 4 項中的 3 項。我們有意嘗試平衡您提到的密度，我們傳統上可能在公司的流體動力方面，在我們的流體連接器和運動技術上，並添加過濾，這現在是我們最大的群體之一。有了 Lord，工程材料將成為我們更大的群體之一。再加上航空航天，它平衡了公司的短週期性質與具有良好成長軌蹟的高利潤業務。

So clearly, that portfolio, we've added $3 billion of revenue in roughly 3 years that goes into those targeted parts of the portfolio that will make us clearly more resilient. You can't ever be not have any reaction to the business cycle. Everybody feels it. But can you dent the lows versus what you had in the past? And I think you see evidence of that. We held margins almost virtually flat during the industrial recession of '15 and '16. You saw the margin performance in Q4. Those are pretty phenomenal results. And that was even before -- of course, Q4 had CLARCOR in it. But it's before adding LORD and Exotic. So the mix is going to continue to help us and The Win Strategy is going to continue to help us too because we're not stopping at 17% operating margin.

很明顯，在大約 3 年內，我們在該投資組合中增加了 30 億美元的收入，這些收入進入了投資組合的目標部分，這將使我們明顯更具彈性。你不可能對商業週期沒有任何反應。每個人都有感覺。但與過去相比，你能降低低點嗎？我想你已經看到這方面的證據了。在 15 年和 16 年的工業衰退期間，我們的利潤率幾乎保持不變。您看到了第四季的利潤率表現。這些都是相當驚人的結果。那是更早的事了──當然，Q4 裡就有 CLARCOR。但那是在添加“LORD”和“Exotic”之前。因此，這種組合將繼續為我們提供協助，而致勝策略也將繼續為我們提供協助，因為我們不會止步於 17% 的營業利潤率。

I see. Okay. And then if I may ask a question on Industrial International. Obviously, your full year guidance implies organic growth decline. I'm presuming you're sort of thinking that orders kind of keep in line with your organic guidance. Two years in a row now of contraction in international. So from your perspective, what sort of environment are you really baking into your outlook? And I am, to some degree, surprised that you're not announcing some kind of restructuring of sort, addressing basically the second year of volume decline here. Maybe you can comment on that and how your cost structure has changed in international with everything that you've done.

我懂了。好的。然後我可以問一個關於工業國際的問題嗎？顯然，您的全年指導意味著有機成長下降。我假設您認為訂單與您的自然指導保持一致。國際市場已經連續兩年萎縮。那麼從你的角度來看，什麼樣的環境真正影響了你的觀點呢？在某種程度上，我感到驚訝的是，你們沒有宣布某種形式的重組，基本上解決第二年銷量下降的問題。也許您可以對此發表評論，以及您所做的一切在國際上的成本結構如何變化。

Yes. So on the restructuring side, we have been restructuring international since FY '14. And we've been on a very aggressive restructuring, getting international margins almost to the levels of North America. If you look at last year, 16.4% versus the 16.9%. And a lot of you that followed us for a long time never thought we could ever do that. So international has been moving because of the restructuring that we've been doing, that we've been creating a much more agile organization and the mix of improving distribution versus OEM. So that's been helping international.

是的。因此，在重組方面，我們自 2014 財年以來一直在進行國際重組。我們一直在進行非常積極的重組，使國際利潤率幾乎達到北美的水平。如果你看去年的情況，你會發現這個比例是 16.4%，而去年是 16.9%。許多長期關注我們的人從未想到我們能做到這一點。由於我們一直在進行重組，我們一直在創建一個更敏捷的組織，並改善分銷與 OEM 的組合，因此國際業務一直在發展。所以這一直在幫助國際。

So we don't feel the same need, at least at these levels of sales decline, to trigger some new level of restructuring. We've got the organization to where it needs to be. Obviously, we'll do the normal variable cost reductions in temps and overtime and voluntary lack of work, those type of things. But we think we've really done a great job internationally. And hence, that's why you see the margins and what we've had. I'm not sure I hit everything you wanted to cover, Mig.

因此，我們不認為有同樣的必要性，至少在銷售下降的情況下，觸發某種新水準的重組。我們已經把組織帶到了它需要的地方。顯然，我們將在臨時工、加班和自願缺勤等方面進行正常的可變成本削減。但我們認為我們在國際上確實做得很好。因此，這就是為什麼你會看到利潤和我們所擁有的。我不確定我是否達到了你想要涵蓋的所有內容，Mig。

No. You kind of did. I guess I'm wondering, in some ways, a little bit unusual to see 2 years in a row of, say, orders or volume decline here that, that's actually worse than what happened in 2015, right? So I'm trying to understand kind of that dynamic and also trying to understand if your cost structure here has become more variable than it's been in the past. That's kind of where I was going.

不。你確實做到了。我想我想知道，在某些方面，連續兩年訂單或數量下降有點不尋常，這實際上比 2015 年發生的情況更糟糕，對嗎？因此，我試圖了解這種動態，並試圖了解您的成本結構是否變得比過去更加可變。這就是我要去的地方。

Yes. So Mig, that was a part of your question I missed. International did grow at least minus 1% last year. But it was the first to start to go down, and so it felt a little bit sooner. So international did decline organically last year. Of course, it had a lot of the currency, minus 5.5% on currency. But we do -- I think we've been realistic with international. We've got international down about 8.5% the first half and then started to work its way by the time we exit Q4 to almost a neutral type of positioning in Q4. So it was first to go in and I think it'll be fine. And I think the guide is pretty realistic of what we have for international.

是的。米格，這是我錯過的你問題的一部分。國際去年確實成長了至少-1%。但它是第一個開始下降的，所以感覺有點早。因此，國際去年確實出現了有機下滑。當然，它有很多貨幣，貨幣負5.5%。但我們確實——我認為我們對國際事務一直很現實。上半年我們的國際股價下跌了約 8.5%，然後當我們退出第四季時，我們開始採取這種方式，在第四季幾乎處於中性定位。所以它是第一個進去的，我認為會沒事的。我認為該指南對於我們為國際提供的內容非常現實。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

So I guess my first question is going back to the inventory comment from earlier. I guess as you think about the next couple of quarters, it sounds like you're expecting destock to continue. I guess in that context, have you heard or have you experienced any distributor like price adjustments? How are those conversations with your distributors occurring on the pricing side just given the backdrop?

所以我想我的第一個問題是回到之前的庫存評論。我想當你考慮接下來的幾季時，聽起來你預計庫存會繼續下去。我想在這種情況下，您是否聽說過或經歷過經銷商類似的價格調整？在這種背景下，與經銷商在定價方面的對話進展如何？

So let me -- I'll start with the inventory. I'll let Lee chime in on the pricing side of things. So with at least North America, we do have good visibility into that sales out and sales in that I referred to in the last call. So we look at North America, we see about a flat growth organically with about 200 basis points of destocking. So North America came in at about a minus 2% on distribution growth. That was about minus 300 bps of destocking in Q3. So we saw a little bit of improvement, about 100 basis points of improvement. And that really was our thinking as we go into the first half of '20. So we'll have about another 100 bps every quarter. Hence, 6 months to get through the destocking. And that's obviously through conversations that we have with our distributors. And then we're plotting, like I referred to last quarter, we're plotting that sales out and sales in so we can get a little better visibility of that trend. I'll let Lee comment on the pricing side.

那麼讓我——我將從庫存開始。我會讓李插話定價方面的事情。因此，至少在北美，我們確實對我在上次電話會議中提到的銷售情況和銷售情況有很好的了解。所以我們看看北美，我們看到有機成長平穩，去庫存約 200 個基點。因此，北美地區的分銷成長約為負 2%。第三季的去庫存量約為負 300 個基點。所以我們看到了一點點的改善，大約 100 個基點的改善。當我們進入 20 世紀上半葉時，這確實是我們的想法。因此，每個季度我們將會有大約 100 個基點。因此，去庫存需要6個月的時間。這顯然是透過我們與經銷商的對話得出的。然後我們正在繪製，就像我在上個季度提到的那樣，我們正在繪製銷售量和銷售量，以便我們可以更好地了解該趨勢。我會讓李就定價方面發表評論。

Yes. Just commenting on distribution. Speaking about North America. As Tom said, it was mixed during the quarter. It really depends on the region and destocking continued. I'd say on the pricing side, if you're asking if there's still pricing power in the channel, I'm not quite sure exactly what you were asking. We're still in a slightly inflationary environment. I would say that there's still pricing taking place. And what's still promising, too, there's still a lot of CapEx activity still taking place at this point in time, which is a good indicator that -- and I'm speaking mostly of North America that there's still a lot of positive momentum going on.

是的。只是評論分佈。說到北美。正如湯姆所說，本季情況好壞參半。這實際上取決於地區，並且去庫存仍在繼續。我想說的是，在定價方面，如果你問通路是否仍有定價權，我不太確定你到底在問什麼。我們仍然處於輕微通膨的環境中。我想說的是，定價仍在進行中。仍然有希望的是，目前仍有大量資本支出活動仍在進行，這是一個很好的指標，我主要指的是北美，仍然存在許多積極的勢頭。

Lee, my comment was more around like whether your distributors were pushing back on price at all in this backdrop and really kind of trying to understand whether that has any implications on the leverage in your North American business.

李，我的評論更像是您的分銷商是否在這種背景下壓低了價格，並且確實試圖了解這是否對您北美業務的影響力產生任何影響。

No. There's really none of that taking place right now.

不。現在確實什麼都沒有發生。

Okay. Got it. And then maybe just my follow-on. And just thinking about the trajectory of the aero business, aero obviously continues to do well from an order perspective. You take a look at the growth expectations for 2020 and they seem a little light just based on the trends that we've been seeing. And so maybe some commentary around that as we head into 2020.

好的。知道了。然後也許只是我的後續。只要考慮航空業務的發展軌跡，從訂單角度來看，航空業務顯然繼續表現良好。你看一下 2020 年的成長預期，根據我們所看到的趨勢，它們似乎有點輕鬆。因此，當我們進入 2020 年時，也許會對此發表一些評論。

Okay. Joe, it's Tom. So on orders, remember, orders are long cycle or 12 months and they tend to be lumpy and you don't always -- can't always translate to due dates like directly out into the next fiscal year. But we were plus 10%, like you've seen. That composition was minus 5% on commercial OE, plus 42% on military OE, plus 13% on commercial MRO and plus 24% on military MRO. So some of the things that really drove some of the big spikes were F-35 on the military OE. On the commercial side, it was 737 and 787 and really kind of a mixture of a A220, a pretty nice, broad-based mixture on MRO side. And the military MRO, a lot of the fighters, F-18, F119. F101 is a bomber, but some pretty good progress on orders there.

好的。喬，是湯姆。因此，在訂單方面，請記住，訂單週期較長或 12 個月，而且往往不穩定，而且您並不總是 - 不能總是轉換為到期日期，例如直接進入下一個財政年度。但正如您所看到的，我們增加了 10%。商業OE的構成為負5%，軍用OE為42%，商業MRO為13%，軍用MRO為24%。因此，真正推動一些大高峰的因素是軍用 OE 上的 F-35。在商業方面，它是 737 和 787，實際上是 A220 的混合體，是 MRO 方面非常好的、基礎廣泛的混合體。還有軍事MRO，很多戰鬥機，F-18，F119。F101 是一款轟炸機，但訂單方面取得了相當不錯的進展。

For sales, our forecast, about 4.5%. That composition is commercial OE at plus 3%, military OE at plus 2%, commercial MRO at plus 4% and military MRO of plus 10%. And that's our best view at this moment.

對於銷售額，我們的預測約為 4.5%。此構成是商業OE加3%，軍用OE加2%，商業MRO加4%，軍用MRO加10%。這是我們目前最好的看法。

Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。

Yes. My question focuses on the sensitivity of your margin guidance to volumes. Because what's striking me is in the first half of the year, you have total company sales down 4% to 5%, but implied margins up 10 bps. The second half year, you have revenues up and the margins are up 30 bps, not terribly differently. It doesn't seem like there's much volume sensitivity to the margin improvement. Now I do appreciate the year ago comp, mix, currency can mess with the analysis a bit. But I'm just trying to understand, is that accurate that where you see your margin improvement coming from really isn't that volume sensitive?

是的。我的問題集中在保證金指引對交易量的敏感度。因為令我震驚的是，今年上半年，公司總銷售額下降了 4% 到 5%，但隱含利潤率卻上升了 10 個基點。下半年，營收成長，利潤率成長 30 個基點，差異不大。利潤率的改善似乎沒有太大的成交量敏感度。現在我確實很欣賞一年前的比較、混合、貨幣可能會稍微擾亂分析。但我只是想了解，您認為利潤率改善的來源是否真的對數量不敏感？

Well, if I take total Parker, I'm just doing total MROS, we're in that minus 15% to minus 20% range for the first half. And if I look at the second half, it's like plus over 70% now. Again, that's the law of small numbers. You got relatively modest sales increase. So you are seeing some pretty nice lift in that second half as far as MROS go.

好吧，如果我採用帕克總得分，我只是在計算總 MROS，上半年我們處於負 15% 到負 20% 的範圍內。如果我看下半場，現在已經超過 70%。這又是小數法則。您的銷售額成長相對溫和。因此，就 MROS 而言，您會在下半年看到一些相當不錯的提升。

Well, I'm actually saying the opposite, Tom, saying you would think the second half of the year has got to really carry the load on the margin improvement because your distributors aren't destocking in the same way. You have volume overhead absorption that's improving because you have revenues up, not down. But that's, in fact, what strike me as interesting that you're almost saying, I can grow margins -- not saying regardless of volumes, but it's -- I don't want to use the word impressive, but yes, if you can do it, it's impressive that you can have down volumes, up margins and up volumes, up margins. I mean, it's just interesting to see because obviously if you really can do it without that much volume sensitivity, it makes the credibility of the guide improve. So I'm just trying to understand. Am I reading it right? I mean, I know I'm doing the math right, but I'm just trying to figure out, are there clear things in the margin improvement this year that you would say, yes, it's really not tied to volume at all. Have confidence that we can grow margin even when volumes are down because that's what you're implying in the first half.

好吧，我實際上說的是相反的，湯姆，你會認為下半年必須真正承擔利潤改善的負擔，因為你的分銷商沒有以同樣的方式去庫存。你的銷售管理費用吸收能力正在改善，因為你的收入增加了，而不是減少了。但事實上，這讓我覺得有趣的是，你幾乎是在說，我可以增加利潤——不是說無論數量如何，而是——我不想使用“令人印象深刻”這個詞，但是是的，如果你能做到這一點，令人印象深刻的是，你可以降低銷量，提高利潤率，也可以提高銷量，提高利潤率。我的意思是，這很有趣，因為顯然如果你真的可以在沒有那麼大的音量敏感度的情況下做到這一點，它會提高指南的可信度。所以我只是想理解。我讀得對嗎？我的意思是，我知道我的數學計算是正確的，但我只是想弄清楚，今年的利潤率改善是否有明顯的變化，你會說，是的，它實際上與銷量無關。即使銷售量下降，我們也能提高利潤率，因為這就是您在上半年所暗示的。

Yes. No, you're really absolutely reading it right. And that's part of the transformation that I spoke to at the beginning of the call that the combination of all the things we've been doing on lean, the kaizen activity really started heavy for us in the fall last year, The Win Strategy, simplification, all those type of things, the inefficiencies that we have worked through, the CLARCOR synergies that are really kicking in, all those things -- and of course, the portfolio shift as far as things we're adding to the portfolio, are enabling us to be better on our margins when we have softness on sales. And so yes, we feel good about that.

是的。不，你真的沒有看錯。這是我在電話會議開始時談到的轉型的一部分，我們在精益方面所做的所有事情的結合，去年秋天對我們來說真正開始的改善活動，制勝戰略，簡化，所有這些類型的事情，我們已經解決的低效率問題，真正發揮作用的CLARCOR 協同效應，所有這些事情- 當然，就我們添加到投資組合中的事情而言，投資組合的轉變正在實現當我們的銷售疲軟時，我們的利潤率會更高。是的，我們對此感覺良好。

Yes. I wasn't sure maybe part of the reason is the price/cost is particularly helpful in the next couple of quarters because you saw some lag benefit from prior price increases, but now you get the benefit from the lower cost and that kind of goes more neutral in the second half. But it doesn't seem like in the channel you put much of a price increase, if any, through July 1, so I'm not sure how much benefit maybe in your fiscal second half you'll have on price. But the carryover from the prior price increases should still be there the next 6 months and then maybe a benefit of some lower costs. So I'm not blessing it here, but just it's impressive if you can do that where you're not that volume-sensitive. I'm just trying to get a handle on, seems like you believe it, just a couple of buckets to make us feel good about that's not volume-sensitive, we know what the price/cost is or we know we have some inefficiencies that were still lingering at CLARCOR that aren't there in the fiscal first half of '20. That's all I was driving at.

是的。我不確定部分原因可能是價格/成本在接下來的幾個季度特別有幫助，因為您看到了之前價格上漲帶來的一些滯後收益，但現在您從較低的成本中獲得了收益，這種情況就發生了下半場更加中性。但在 7 月 1 日之前，您似乎並沒有在通路中大幅提價（如果有的話），所以我不確定您的下半財年在價格方面可能會獲得多少好處。但先前價格上漲帶來的結轉效應在接下來的 6 個月內應該仍然存在，然後可能會受益於一些較低的成本。所以我在這裡並不是祝福它，但如果你能在對音量不那麼敏感的地方做到這一點，那就太令人印象深刻了。我只是想掌握一下，似乎你相信這一點，只是幾個桶讓我們感覺良好，這對數量不敏感，我們知道價格/成本是多少，或者我們知道我們有一些效率低下的地方仍然在CLARCOR 徘徊，而20 世紀上半財年則不存在。這就是我開車的目的。

Yes. No, I think you're right. You hit on all the buckets. The inefficiencies that we have at CLARCOR were clearly more pronounced in the first half of '19. And so that helps us as we look at '20. Some of the carryover on pricing is a little bit better in the first half. In general, if I was to do the total pricing for the year, it'd be margin neutral, but we do get a little bit of help more on the first half. So I think you're right.

是的。不，我認為你是對的。你擊中了所有的桶子。CLARCOR 的低效率問題在 19 年上半年明顯更加明顯。因此，當我們展望 20 世紀時，這對我們有所幫助。上半年定價的一些結轉情況稍好。總的來說，如果我要計算今年的總定價，那麼利潤率是中性的，但我們在上半年確實得到了更多的幫助。所以我認為你是對的。

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

So I just want to start with the first quarter. So the color between the first half and the second half was really helpful. But if you guys could give us a sense of what's baked in from an organic and a margin perspective in that $2.66 midpoint guidance for 1Q that would be helpful.

所以我只想從第一季開始。所以前半部和後半部之間的顏色確實很有幫助。但如果你們能讓我們從有機和利潤的角度了解第一季 2.66 美元的中點指導中包含的內容，那將會很有幫助。

Sure, Nicole. I'll help you here. We're anticipating organic decline of about 3.5% for the first quarter with just a minimal impact from currencies, say, 0.5 point, 0.5% currency. But as you look at the margins, we're expecting year-over-year to North America to see improving margins year-over-year. Again, that relates to some of the inefficiencies we saw at the first half of last year that are improving. International, with the decline, we'll have lower margins than last year. That's a nice decremental though there. And Aerospace will see improving margins.

當然，妮可。我會在這裡幫助你。我們預計第一季有機下降約 3.5%，貨幣影響很小，例如 0.5 點，0.5% 貨幣。但當你觀察利潤率時，我們預期北美地區的利潤率將逐年提高。同樣，這與我們去年上半年看到的一些效率低下的問題正在改善有關。國際方面，隨著下滑，我們的利潤率將低於去年。不過，這是一個很好的遞減。航空航太業的利潤率將會提高。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then secondly on Aerospace margins. It looks to me like you've embedded about 50% incremental in 2020 guidance. Just curious how much R&D maybe contributes to that, the factors driving the pretty substantial year-on-year increase and margins to above 20%.

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。其次是航空航太利潤。在我看來，你們已經在 2020 年指導中嵌入了大約 50% 的增量。只是好奇研發可能對此做出多少貢獻，推動年比大幅成長和利潤率超過 20% 的因素。

Yes. A lot of that or a good portion of that has to do with the development costs and what we incurred in fiscal '19 compared to what we anticipate in fiscal '20 and especially what we incurred in the fourth quarter. So in the fourth quarter this year, our development costs were 7.5% of sales. That was pretty high. Our overall average for the year was 5.6%. In fiscal year '20, we expect development costs to be less than that, and we're forecasting in the range of 4.5% to 5%. So lower development costs are driving some of that incremental, along with other continuous improvements the teams are making to implement productivity and Win Strategy initiatives and just improving the processes in the shops and getting more productive.

是的。其中很大一部分或很大一部分與開發成本以及我們在 19 財年的支出與我們對 20 財年的預期相比，尤其是在第四季度的支出有關。所以今年第四季度，我們的開發成本佔銷售額的7.5%。那是相當高的。我們今年的整體平均成長率為 5.6%。在 20 財年，我們預計開發成本將低於這個數字，我們預測在 4.5% 到 5% 的範圍內。因此，較低的開發成本正在推動一些增量，以及團隊為實施生產力和獲勝策略措施而進行的其他持續改進，以及改進車間流程並提高生產力。

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。

Can we just touch -- just going back to the strategy question. Can we talk about internal capital deployment? And it's really a two-part question. A, how do you think deploying capital in terms of sort of capital and labor? And specifically on capital, if you could talk about sort of implementing robotics, 3D manufacturing. How much money are you spending? How much impact is it making? And the second question is, given all the trade tensions, how are you guys thinking about deploying capital by geography, North America, the rest of the world and what are you seeing in your supply chain? I know it's sort of an expansive question so that would be the only one for me.

我們可以簡單談談嗎——回到策略問題。能談談內部資本配置嗎？這實際上是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。A，您認為如何從資本和勞動力的角度來配置資本？特別是在資本方面，如果你能談談機器人技術、3D 製造的實施。你花了多少錢？它產生了多大的影響？第二個問題是，考慮到所有的貿易緊張局勢，你們如何考慮按地理位置、北美、世界其他地區部署資本以及你們在供應鏈中看到了什麼？我知道這是一個廣泛的問題，所以這對我來說是唯一的問題。

Andrew, it's Tom. So let me start with the CapEx side. So I think a good round number to think about us on CapEx -- and this will be to fund organic growth as well as productivity -- is around 2%. And we are very active on robotics and additive. I would just tell you that our strategy on automation and robotics is to do kaizen first. We believe that let's not automate waste, that we're going to do kaizen, we're going to streamline the processes and optimize what we have and then we'll automate the remaining processes.

安德魯，是湯姆。讓我從資本支出方面開始。因此，我認為考慮我們的資本支出（這將為有機成長和生產力提供資金）的一個很好的整數是 2% 左右。我們在機器人和積層製造方面非常活躍。我只想告訴你，我們在自動化和機器人技術方面的策略是先進行改善。我們相信，不要讓浪費自動化，我們要進行改善，我們要簡化流程並優化我們所擁有的，然後我們將自動化剩餘的流程。

And so there's a little bit of a learning curve on learning all the automation. We've got a lot of great partners that we're working with. And we've had a number of summit sessions with all of our manufacturing engineers. And I would say the organization is really jazzed up about it. And I think this is a good strategy. We're putting kaizen first then automation. And as part of why I think you've seen the margins do as well as it has, the kaizen activities are just starting to gain traction. So more robotics coming forward, but we will invest in that. That'll be in that 2%. And because of our lean transformation, we don't need as much dollars. We can divert some of that, what we've traditionally done, into more CapEx towards robotics.

因此，學習所有自動化有一點學習曲線。我們有很多優秀的合作夥伴。我們與所有製造工程師舉行了多次高峰會。我想說，該組織對此感到非常興奮。我認為這是一個很好的策略。我們先考慮改善，然後再考慮自動化。我認為您看到利潤率如此之高的原因之一是，改善活動才剛開始受到關注。更多的機器人技術即將出現，但我們將對此進行投資。那將是那2%。由於我們進行了精實轉型，我們不需要那麼多美元。我們可以將傳統做法中的一些轉移到機器人技術的更多資本支出。

On the additive side, that's a big deal to us. We've got 3 Centers of Excellence. We've decided strategically that we're not going to have -- this is not the kind of process you're going to have 80 of them, like 1 for every division. So we have 2 Centers of Excellence for aerospace and we've got one for the entire company. And that one for the entire company really acts as an incubator for all the industrial divisions as well as also for aerospace. And we're working on proprietary material powder blending and processes. So there's a lot of good work that we're very close to having our first production parts, both industrially and aerospace, to make it into the field utilizing additive.

在添加劑方面，這對我們來說很重要。我們有 3 個卓越中心。我們已經從策略上決定，我們不會有這樣的流程，就是不會有 80 個流程，就像每個部門有 1 個流程一樣。因此，我們有 2 個航空航天卓越中心，還有一個針對整個公司的卓越中心。對於整個公司來說，這個孵化器實際上是所有工業部門以及航空航天部門的孵化器。我們正在研究專有材料粉末混合和工藝。因此，我們做了很多出色的工作，即將生產出工業和航空航太領域的第一個生產零件，以使其進入利用積層製造的領域。

I'd tell you, the other thing on additive is, it's designing for additive. So we have a program working on designing it for an additive world because it's very important to design the next generation of products thinking about an additive manufacturing process versus designing it in the subtraction world.

我想告訴你，積層製造的另一件事是，它是為積層製造而設計的。因此，我們有一個專案致力於為增材世界設計它，因為與在減法世界中設計相比，考慮積層製造流程來設計下一代產品非常重要。

Now you're asking about supply chain. The view on supply chain is that we like to make, buy and sell in the region, for the region. So maybe you're asking about China. Do we feel still good about China? We really do. I mean, we've not overpositioned ourselves in China where we think we're overextended. We still have low-cost centers there that we're very, very happy with. China is still a huge country for us and we need to be there to service that. And so I don't think you're going to see us doing much big CapEx shifts like building a bunch of plants in Indonesia. We have the footprint we need. And there'll be maybe just some minor tweaking of lines, but it will be immaterial.

現在你問的是供應鏈。我們對供應鏈的看法是，我們喜歡在該地區製造、購買和銷售，為該地區服務。所以也許你問的是中國。我們對中國還抱持好感嗎？我們確實如此。我的意思是，我們在中國並沒有過度定位，我們認為我們已經過度擴張了。我們在那裡仍然有低成本中心，我們對此非常非常滿意。對我們來說，中國仍然是一個大國，我們需要在那裡提供服務。因此，我認為您不會看到我們進行大規模的資本支出轉變，例如在印尼建造一系列工廠。我們有我們需要的足跡。也許只是對線條進行一些細微的調整，但這並不重要。

And I'll just sneak in one more follow-up on collaborative robotics. I know that you had a big rollout program, I believe you did. Where are you in that sort of kaizen versus actual physical rolling out of capacity?

我將偷偷地介紹另一篇關於協作機器人技術的後續文章。我知道你們有一個大型的推出計劃，我相信你們做到了。在這種改善與實際物理容量耗盡的情況下，您處於什麼位置？

Heavy, heavy on the kaizen activity. Early days still on the collaborative robots. We have several, lots of them in all of our factories, but we particularly strategically have emphasized kaizen first. You talk to most senseis that are experts in this kind of transformation, they will encourage you to do the same thing. And it's a lot faster dollars to the bottom line and a lot more CapEx-friendly. And the collaborative robotics is really CapEx-friendly as well. It's going to be a light touch on CapEx. I don't see that as an issue. But the thrust has been, let's do the kaizen, let's get the processes right first.

重、重的改善活動。協作機器人仍處於早期階段。我們所有的工廠都有很多這樣的改善，但我們特別策略性地首先強調改善。你與大多數在這種轉變方面是專家的老師交談，他們會鼓勵你做同樣的事情。而且它可以更快地實現盈利，並且對資本支出也更加友好。協作機器人技術也確實有利於資本支出。這將是對資本支出的輕微影響。我不認為這是一個問題。但重點是，讓我們來改善，先讓流程正確。

Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ann Duignan 與摩根大通的對話。

Yes. Most of my specific questions have been answered. But Tom, maybe I'll throw this one at you. If you look at where your end markets are today versus where we were when we went into the industrial recession in '15 and '16, it strikes me that as we look at the number of end markets that are down or negative right now, it's much more broad-based. Do you worry at all that heading into calendar year 2020 we're facing much broader decline when you include automotive, heavy-duty truck, you take the impact of Boeing 737 MAX if that production schedule declines. It looks to me like we've got a pretty broad-based set of end markets declining.

是的。我的大部分具體問題都已得到解答。但是湯姆，也許我會把這個丟給你。如果你看看現在的終端市場與我們在 15 年和 16 年進入工業衰退時的情況相比，我會發現，當我們看到目前下降或為負數的終端市場數量時，基礎更加廣泛。您是否擔心，進入 2020 日曆年，我們將面臨更廣泛的衰退，如果包括汽車、重型卡車，如果生產計劃下降，您將受到波音 737 MAX 的影響。在我看來，我們有相當廣泛的終端市場正在下降。

Okay. Ann, it's Tom. I'll make a comment. Let me touch on the MAX real quickly for a second. So the MAX for us, in our guidance, we put in 42 a month. And because it's first fit and most of our content there is very low margin, it's immaterial to us pretty much if that schedule were to change, but I just want you to know we put it at 42. So I think we're in good shape on that. But I think your characterization is pretty accurate. This is more broad-based but not as deep type of softness. The '15 and '16 industrial recession was a sharp contraction in natural resources. So you had all the natural resource-related end markets as we all remember went down significantly. And so that was more isolated. This is a little more broader-based. My comment earlier on, that we have 2/3 of our markets in accelerating decline is an indicator that we have some pockets that are unusually down, things like semiconductor and power gen. But we're hopeful on power gen that, that's starting to find a bottom. And that we're also hopeful actually on semiconductors that's starting to find a bottom as well.

好的。安，是湯姆。我來發表評論。讓我快速談談 MAX。因此，根據我們的指導，我們每個月投入的 MAX 數量為 42。因為它是第一次適合，而且我們的大部分內容利潤率都很低，所以如果時間表發生變化，對我們來說並不重要，但我只是想讓你知道我們把它定為 42。所以我認為我們在這方面處於良好狀態。但我認為你的描述非常準確。這是更廣泛的基礎，但不是更深層的柔軟。15和16年的工業衰退是自然資源的急劇萎縮。因此，我們都記得，所有與自然資源相關的終端市場都大幅下降。所以那更加孤立。這是一個更廣泛的基礎。我之前的評論是，我們有 2/3 的市場正在加速下滑，這表明我們有一些領域異常下滑，例如半導體和發電領域。但我們對發電抱持希望，它已經開始觸底。我們其實也對半導體市場抱持希望，半導體市場也開始觸底。

And yes. I just wanted to follow up on the Boeing 737. I mean, isn't there a risk that, again, that becomes more broad-based? It's not just about what you supply on to the airplane, but there are a lot of kind of second derivative impacts that could impact your business.

是的。我只是想跟進一下波音 737。我的意思是，這是否存在再次變得更加廣泛的風險？這不僅與您向飛機供應的物品有關，還與許多可能影響您業務的二階導數影響有關。

I'm not exactly sure what you're referring to because it would just be affecting our bill of material there. Are you talking about the general supply chain that supports Boeing?

我不太確定你指的是什麼，因為它只會影響我們的材料清單。你說的是支持波音的整體供應鏈嗎？

Yes. And just thinking about the impact of pulling down the schedule at one large manufacturing facility and how that might impact some of your industrial distribution businesses.

是的。只要想想縮短一家大型製造工廠的工期所帶來的影響，以及這可能會對您的某些工業分銷業務產生怎樣的影響。

Okay. I see what you're saying. I think that would be very minor. Basically, you won't be able to find it. So if they shut down the plant at Redmond for 20 days or whatever on a temporary basis, it would be immaterial to us as far as the in-plant things that we do on the industrial side.

好的。我明白你在說什麼。我認為那是非常小的。基本上你是找不到的。因此，如果他們將雷德蒙的工廠暫時關閉 20 天或採取其他措施，那麼對於我們在工業方面所做的廠內工作而言，這對我們來說並不重要。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Yes. So I just want to touch on international orders. We saw the year-over-year deteriorating from last quarter on an easier comp. So I'm just curious if maybe we just talk about geographically where you saw the incremental weakness and then I've got a follow-up.

是的。我只想談談國際訂單。我們發現，在比較輕鬆的情況下，上季的年比情況惡化。所以我很好奇我們是否只是從地理上討論您看到的增量弱點，然後我有後續行動。

Yes. Nigel, it's Tom. So on international, the composition of that minus 8%, we had both EMEA and Asia Pacific at about the same, that high single-digit declines. And we had Latin America, low single positive. Remember, Latin America is small, so it's not really enough to move the needle. And the way that trended in the quarter is that Asia Pacific weakened in May but stayed stable in June. So May, stepped down from April to May, but May and June were pretty well flat. And then Europe was pretty consistent. It was in that high single-digit level the entire quarter. So no real variation going April to June. And in Latin America, we saw some variation, but in general slight growth.

是的。奈傑爾，是湯姆。因此，在國際上，負 8% 的組成，歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的跌幅大致相同，都是個位數的高跌幅。我們有拉丁美洲，單陽性率較低。請記住，拉丁美洲很小，因此不足以真正起到推動作用。本季的趨勢是，亞太地區 5 月走弱，但 6 月保持穩定。所以五月，從四月到五月有所下降，但五月和六月相當平穩。然後歐洲的情況相當穩定。整個季度都處於高個位數水平。所以四月到六月沒有真正的改變。在拉丁美洲，我們看到了一些變化，但總體而言略有增長。

And then in Europe, are you seeing any signs of a bottom there or is it still very consistently bad?

那麼在歐洲，您是否看到任何觸底的跡象，或者情況仍然非常糟糕？

I think my description of the markets earlier on that I went through is a pretty good indicator for Europe as well. So that's how I would characterize Europe. The only difference in Europe would be maybe a little weaker distribution channel than we have in North America, but that would be the key difference.

我認為我之前對市場的描述對歐洲來說也是一個很好的指標。這就是我對歐洲的描述。歐洲唯一的區別可能是分銷管道比北美稍弱，但這將是關鍵的區別。

And then my follow-up is really maybe just touching on what Ann was digging into. And going back to the '15, '16, we saw North America negative 12%. And certainly, the order numbers don't support that kind of deterioration. But maybe just take a step back and characterize what you're seeing today, what you're hearing from the field, from your channel partners and characterize what you're hearing today to what you saw in '15 and '16.

然後我的後續行動實際上可能只是觸及安正在研究的內容。回到 15、16 年，我們看到北美下降了 12%。當然，訂單數量並不支持這種惡化。但也許退後一步，描述一下您今天所看到的情況，您從現場、通路合作夥伴處聽到的情況，並將您今天聽到的情況描述為您在15 年和16 年所看到的情況。

Yes. Nigel, it's Tom. This feels very different. I mean distinctly different. '15 and '16 was a commodity-driven reduction. Remember, the commodity prices weakened dramatically, then all the equipment that went in there, the demand dried up. We had oil and gas prices drop dramatically. So that was a very different type of a downturn. This one is, like I mentioned earlier on, is broader-based. I think our forecast was realistic. Part of why we studied those pressure curves was just looking what history had showed us going back. We only have data back 10 years from the financial crisis today and that 12- to 18-month interval was fairly consistent over those cycles. But the big difference for me is sharp spike down in natural resources before. This one a little more broader-based across, broader-based of end markets but not as severe.

是的。奈傑爾，是湯姆。這感覺很不一樣。我的意思是明顯不同。'15 和 '16 是大宗商品驅動的減少。請記住，大宗商品價格急劇下跌，然後所有進入那裡的設備的需求都枯竭了。石油和天然氣價格大幅下跌。所以這是一種非常不同的經濟衰退類型。正如我之前提到的，這一點有更廣泛的基礎。我認為我們的預測是現實的。我們研究這些壓力曲線的部分原因只是為了回顧歷史向我們展示的內容。我們今天只有金融危機 10 年前的數據，而且 12 到 18 個月的間隔在這些週期中相當一致。但對我來說最大的差異是之前自然資源的急劇下降。這個問題的範圍更廣，終端市場更廣泛，但沒有那麼嚴重。

Our last question will come from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題將來自內森瓊斯（Nathan Jones）和斯蒂菲爾（Stifel）的線路。

First question, I just want to follow up on this conversation about the shallowness of this pullback and pattern duration. Tom, it sounds like a lot of your outlook for when we recover from this is based on historical correlations and historical outlooks for the businesses. You did say this is different to '15 and '16. Do you need some kind of trade resolution here in order to see that recovery? Do you need to avoid a hard Brexit? Are there geopolitical things here that maybe they don't make this decline any deeper than it is that you're projecting, but maybe it makes it longer than you're projecting and just how you're thinking about those kinds of things.

第一個問題，我只想跟進這次關於回調和模式持續時間的淺薄性的對話。湯姆，聽起來您對我們從這次疫情中恢復過來的展望很大程度上是基於歷史相關性和企業的歷史前景。你確實說過這與 15 和 16 不同。您是否需要某種貿易解決方案才能看到復甦？您需要避免硬脫歐嗎？這裡是否存在地緣政治因素，也許它們不會使這種衰退比你預測的更嚴重，但也許它會讓衰退比你預測的更長，以及你如何看待這些事情。

Yes. Nathan, it's Tom. So I want to clarify in case anybody took my comments the wrong way. We're not using the pressure curve history as to how we predict future sales. It's just one data point on top of our customers, our distributors, our divisions, et cetera, okay? So it's just one of many, in addition to the regression models we have. But it's just another element that I wanted to share.

是的。內森，是湯姆。所以我想澄清一下，以防有人誤解我的評論。我們沒有使用壓力曲線歷史來預測未來的銷售。這只是我們的客戶、經銷商、部門等之上的一個數據點，好嗎？因此，除了我們擁有的迴歸模型之外，這只是眾多模型之一。但這只是我想分享的另一個元素。

I think that as far as this forecast, it does not assume any kind of trade resolution. So if we had some kind of trade resolution and it was really positive on that, that would be upside to us. Obviously, this doesn't -- and the resolution of Brexit or however that happens, that'll be immaterial to us. It's not big enough to move the needle. And we're always subject to -- if there was something, a geopolitical event out of our control, but I can't forecast those type of things. Does not assume any kind of upside on trade. It's really mirroring the current order entry we have for the first half and then we get some help on comps. And as we went through the markets, I listed all those markets that we think are going to go either from negative to neutral or from neutral to positive. And then we track all these end markets and where they are in those 4 phases. And when you have 2/3 of them in Phase 3, that's an indicator that you're going to start to turn. The next phase is going to be decelerating decline. And that's what we've put in the forecast. So there's a whole bunch of different angles we look at. As you know, a forecast is only as good as the most current data. And we'll update you every quarter and hopefully, give you even better information.

我認為就這項預測而言，它並沒有假設任何類型的貿易解決方案。因此，如果我們達成某種貿易解決方案並且確實具有積極意義，那對我們來說將是有利的。顯然，這不是——英國脫歐的解決方案或無論發生什麼，對我們來說都無關緊要。它不夠大，無法移動針。我們總是會受到──如果有什麼事情的話，我們無法控制的地緣政治事件，但我無法預測這類事情。不假設貿易有任何好處。它確實反映了我們上半年的當前訂單輸入，然後我們在比較方面獲得了一些幫助。當我們瀏覽市場時，我列出了所有我們認為將從負面轉為中性或從中性轉為正面的市場。然後我們追蹤所有這些終端市場以及它們在這四個階段中的位置。當你在第三階段有 2/3 時，就表示你將開始轉向。下一階段將是減速下降。這就是我們在預測中的內容。所以我們有很多不同的角度來看。如您所知，預測的準確性取決於最新的數據。我們將每個季度向您更新，並希望為您提供更好的資訊。

My follow-up question's a little more longer term on Aerospace and the margins. You guys had 5.6% in engineering expenses in 2019, 4.5% to 5% in 2020. Does that continue to decline going forward? And then maybe you can comment on the mix as we go out a few years. So I think you're fairly heavy on commercial OE at the moment and that should switch as we go forward to a little more commercial aftermarket. And clearly, those are at opposite ends of the margin scale. So just any qualitative commentary you could give on how you think margins should progress in Aerospace over the next few years.

我的後續問題是關於航空航天和利潤率的更長期的問題。你們2019年的工程費用是5.6%，2020年是4.5%到5%。未來還會繼續下降嗎？然後也許你可以在我們出去幾年時對組合發表評論。因此，我認為目前您對商業原配設備的關注度相當高，隨著我們轉向更多的商業售後市場，這種情況應該會改變。顯然，這些處於利潤範圍的兩端。因此，您可以就您認為未來幾年航空航太業的利潤率應如何發展提出任何定性評論。

Yes. Nathan, it's Tom again. So we feel very good about margins in Aerospace in the future. The current mix of OE to aftermarket for Aerospace is 64% OE, 36% aftermarket. And you're right, I mean, that won't necessarily change much, say, over the next 3 to 5 years. But once you start going beyond that and we start having shop visits and you're looking at the engine content and the airframe content, that is going to gradually start to move. A point or 2 movement on that is a big deal to us from a margin standpoint. The NRE, that 4.5% to 5% that we're guiding for FY '20, I think, is a pretty good future number to use as well.

是的。內森，又是湯姆。因此，我們對航空航太領域未來的利潤率感到非常滿意。目前航空航太領域的原廠配件與售後市場的組合為 64% 原始配件，36% 售後市場。你是對的，我的意思是，在接下來的三到五年內，這不一定會發生太大變化。但一旦你開始超越這一點，我們開始參觀商店，你會看到引擎內容和機身內容，這將逐漸開始改變。從利潤的角度來看，這一點或兩點的變動對我們來說是一件大事。我認為，NRE，即我們為 20 財年指導的 4.5% 至 5%，也是一個相當不錯的未來數字。

And so the other advantage that Aerospace has besides the mix you referred to is that it still has ample opportunity just like the rest of the company on The Win Strategy. It's got opportunities on kaizen. It has additional opportunities in that all the entry into service product that they're doing today, which you know your first pump versus your 100th pump versus your 500th pump, we're going to work down that learning curve and we will have some cost advantages, not in this next 12 months, but as you work through that, we're going to have cost advantages on entry into service learning. So it's a business we're very bullish on from a margin expansion.

因此，除了您提到的組合之外，航空航太公司的另一個優勢是，它仍然擁有充足的機會，就像獲勝策略中的公司其他公司一樣。它在 Kaizen 上有機會。它有額外的機會，因為他們今天所做的所有進入服務產品，你知道你的第一個泵與你的第100 個泵與你的第500 個泵，我們將降低學習曲線，我們將有一些成本優勢，不是在接下來的 12 個月內，而是當你解決這個問題時，我們將在進入服務學習方面具有成本優勢。因此，我們非常看好這項業務的利潤率擴張。

Okay. Thank you, Nathan. All right. This concludes our Q&A and our earnings call. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Robin and Jeff will be available to take your call should you have any further questions. Everybody, have a great day. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你，內森。好的。我們的問答和財報電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家今天加入我們。如果您還有任何其他問題，羅賓和傑夫將接聽您的電話。大家，祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。