百事 (PEP) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to PepsiCo's Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.pepsico.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Jamie Caulfield, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Caulfield, you may begin.

早安，歡迎參加百事公司（PepsiCo）2017 年第二季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）今天的電話會議將被錄音，並將存檔於 www.pepsico.com。現在我很榮幸介紹投資人關係資深副總裁 Jamie Caulfield 先生。Caulfield 先生，請開始。

Thank you, operator. With me today are Indra Nooyi, PepsiCo's Chairman and CEO; and Hugh Johnston, PepsiCo's CFO.

謝謝，接線員。今天與我一同出席的有百事公司董事長暨執行長 Indra Nooyi，以及百事公司財務長 Hugh Johnston。

We'll lead off today's call with a review of our second quarter 2017 performance and full year outlook and then we'll move on to Q&A. We've kept our comments brief and intend to conclude the call by 8:30.

我們將先回顧 2017 年第二季的表現與全年展望，接著進入問答。我們的發言將保持精簡，並預計在 8:30 前結束本次電話會議。

Before we begin, please take note of our cautionary statement. This conference call includes forward-looking statements including statements regarding 2017 guidance based on currently available information. Forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those predicted in such forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，請留意我們的警示性聲明。本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括基於目前可得資訊所提出的 2017 年指引相關陳述。前瞻性陳述本質上涉及風險與不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與該等前瞻性陳述所預測者出現重大差異。

Statements made on this conference call should be considered together with cautionary statements and other information contained in today's earnings release and in our most recent periodic reports filed with the SEC.

本次電話會議中的陳述，應與今日的財報新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交之定期報告中所載的警示性聲明與其他資訊一併考量。

Unless otherwise indicated, all references to EPS and operating profit growth are on a core constant currency basis. All references to free cash flow exclude certain items. In addition, references to organic revenue results in this call exclude the impact of acquisitions and divestitures, structural changes and foreign exchange translation.

除非另有說明，所有對 EPS 與營業利益成長的提及，均以核心、固定匯率基礎計算。所有對自由現金流的提及均排除特定項目。此外，本次電話會議中提及的有機營收結果，排除併購與處分、結構性變動以及外匯換算的影響。

To find disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures that we use when discussing PepsiCo's financial results, you should refer to the glossary and other attachments to this morning's earnings release and to the Investors section of PepsiCo's website under the Events and Presentations tab.

若要查閱我們在討論百事公司財務結果時所使用之非 GAAP 指標的揭露與調節表，請參考今早財報新聞稿中的詞彙表與其他附件，以及百事公司網站投資人專區中「活動與簡報」分頁下的相關內容。

Now it's my pleasure to introduce Indra Nooyi.

現在我很榮幸介紹 Indra Nooyi。

Thank you, Jamie, and thank you all for joining us this morning.

謝謝你，Jamie，也謝謝各位今天早上加入我們。

I'm pleased report that our second quarter results were very much in line with our expectations and that we remain on track to meet our full year 2017 financial goals.

我很高興報告，我們第二季的結果與預期非常一致，我們也仍按計畫達成 2017 年全年財務目標。

For the quarter. While our reported results continued to be impacted by macro volatility and weak currencies, organic revenue was up more than 3% globally, a sequential acceleration from our growth rate in the first quarter. We generated organic revenue growth across both developed and developing and emerging markets with developed markets up 2% and D&E markets growing 6%. The portfolio generated strong net price realization, and core constant currency operating profit grew 7%. Core constant currency EPS grew 13%.

就本季而言。雖然我們的報告結果仍持續受到總體波動與疲弱匯率影響，但全球有機營收成長超過 3%，較第一季的成長率呈現逐季加速。我們在已開發市場以及開發中與新興市場（D&E）皆實現有機營收成長，其中已開發市場成長 2%，D&E 市場成長 6%。產品組合帶來強勁的淨價格實現，核心固定匯率營業利益成長 7%。核心固定匯率 EPS 成長 13%。

Our results reflect the power and durability of our portfolio, its ability to deliver sustainable and well-balanced results despite ongoing pockets of macro and geopolitical challenges in a number of our key markets around the globe and an increasingly dynamic retail and consumer environment.

我們的結果反映出產品組合的力量與韌性；即使在全球多個關鍵市場仍存在總體與地緣政治挑戰的零星壓力，以及零售與消費環境日益動態的情況下，仍能交付可持續且均衡的成果。

Let's briefly review the performance in the quarter across our sectors, starting with North America, where organic revenue grew 2% and core constant currency operating profit was up 4%. Importantly, year-to-date through the second quarter, we've also generated more U.S. retail sales growth than all other $5 billion-plus manufacturers combined.

讓我們簡要回顧本季各事業部門的表現，先從北美開始：有機營收成長 2%，核心固定匯率營業利益成長 4%。重要的是，截至第二季的年初至今，我們在美國零售銷售的成長也超過所有其他年營收 50 億美元以上製造商的總和。

Frito-Lay North America had another very strong quarter. Volume and organic revenue accelerated sequentially from Q1 as we expected and results reflected a very good balance of volume growth, net price realization and margin expansion. We feel very good about the business with innovation, pricing and execution all on target. We are pleased to report that Frito-Lay alone was the #1 contributor to total use food and beverage retail growth by all $5 billion-plus manufacturers to the end of Q2.

北美菲多利（Frito-Lay North America）本季再度表現非常強勁。如我們預期，銷量與有機營收較第一季逐季加速，結果反映出銷量成長、淨價格實現與毛利率擴張之間非常良好的平衡。我們對該業務感到非常有信心，創新、定價與執行皆符合目標。我們很高興報告，截至第二季末，僅 Frito-Lay 一家就成為所有年營收 50 億美元以上製造商中，對總體食品與飲料零售成長的第一大貢獻者。

Similarly, North America Beverages grew organic revenue and core operating profit, but our growth rates were limited in part by adverse channel and subcategory mix in the quarter as we have seen a lower rate of year-to-date growth in the c-store channel compared to last year and water growth outpaced the balance of our business. We are encouraged by continuous strength in our [tills] portfolio with good growth in Gatorade, our total water portfolio, which benefited from the strong introduction of LIFEWTR, Lipton and our distribution of ROCKSTAR.

同樣地，北美飲料（North America Beverages）的有機營收與核心營業利益也有所成長，但本季成長率部分受到不利的通路與次品類組合影響；我們看到便利商店（c-store）通路年初至今的成長率低於去年，且水品類的成長超過我們其他業務的成長。我們對 [tills] 產品組合持續的強勁表現感到鼓舞，包括佳得樂（Gatorade）、我們整體水產品組合（受益於 LIFEWTR 的強勢上市）、立頓（Lipton）以及我們對 ROCKSTAR 的經銷。

In fact, in just 5 months of sales since its launch in Q1, LIFEWTR has already reached $70 million in retail sales across measured channels, was the top brand contributing to LRB retail sales growth in the second quarter and is on track to generate approximately $200 million in retail sales on an annualized basis.

事實上，自第一季上市以來僅 5 個月的銷售期間，LIFEWTR 在可衡量通路的零售銷售額已達 7,000 萬美元；它是第二季推動 LRB 零售銷售成長的首要品牌，並有望以年化基礎創造約 2 億美元的零售銷售額。

On the carbonated side. We're encouraged by the performance of Pepsi Zero Sugar, but have more work to do on the carbonated portfolio overall. We will also be allocating a bit more marketing behind the big sparkling brand in the second half. We have strong activation for the summer behind Pepsi Fire and our DEW-S-A program followed by strong execution behind the NFL as we get to the fall.

在碳酸飲料方面。我們對 Pepsi Zero Sugar 的表現感到鼓舞，但整體碳酸產品組合仍有更多工作要做。我們也將在下半年為主要氣泡飲品牌投入更多行銷資源。我們在夏季將以 Pepsi Fire 與 DEW-S-A 計畫進行強力推廣，並在進入秋季時，配合 NFL 展開強勢執行。

As we execute our second half plans, we will remain very focused on driving better net price realization and letting our marketing and innovation drive the top line.

在執行下半年計畫的同時，我們將持續高度聚焦於推動更佳的淨價格實現，並讓行銷與創新帶動營收成長。

Quaker Foods North America performance continues to be impacted by broader center-of-store pressures, but is performing well relative to other large breakfast manufacturers. Going forward, we have powerful programming in place aimed to improve the trajectory of the business. So for example, we have activation behind portable breakfast innovation, namely, Breakfast Flats that we launched in 2016 and Breakfast Squares that were launched in the first quarter. And we just launched a new and first-to-market Overnight Oats cup in the second quarter to capitalize on the recent and growing consumer trend of preparing chilled oats using a variety of healthy ingredients.

北美桂格食品（Quaker Foods North America）的表現仍持續受到整體「賣場中間貨架」（center-of-store）壓力影響，但相較其他大型早餐製造商，表現仍然良好。展望未來，我們已部署強而有力的方案，旨在改善該業務的發展軌跡。例如，我們針對可攜式早餐創新進行推廣，包括 2016 年推出的 Breakfast Flats，以及第一季推出的 Breakfast Squares。我們也在第二季剛推出全新且市場首創的 Overnight Oats 杯裝產品，以掌握近期且持續成長的消費趨勢：使用多種健康食材準備冷藏燕麥。

Turning to our sectors outside North America. In Latin America, we continued to see very challenging macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical instability and high levels of inflation in key markets including Brazil and Argentina, which are dampening consumer spending. Within this context, our businesses are performing well.

接著談北美以外的事業部門。在拉丁美洲，我們持續看到極具挑戰的總體經濟環境、地緣政治不穩定，以及包括巴西與阿根廷等關鍵市場的高通膨水準，抑制了消費支出。在此背景下，我們的業務表現良好。

Our largest market in the region, Mexico, encouragingly has been relatively stable and resilient and is performing well and posted double-digit organic revenue growth in the second quarter. While our core profit performance in the first half of the year was impacted by difficult economic conditions, we expect to see an improvement in core profit growth in the second half as we lap incremental investments from last year and we realize productivity from supply chain initiatives.

本區域最大的市場墨西哥，令人鼓舞的是相對穩定且具韌性，表現良好，並在第二季繳出有機營收雙位數成長。雖然我們上半年核心獲利表現受到艱困經濟情勢影響，但我們預期下半年核心獲利成長將有所改善，因為我們將消化去年額外投資的比較基期，並透過供應鏈計畫實現生產力提升。

Similarly, we are experiencing macro challenges in a number of a markets throughout our Asia, Middle East North Africa segment including the significant currency devaluation in Egypt and the economic impact in a number of markets across the Middle East stemming from persistently low oil prices. Related to these, we are experiencing significant cost inflation in Egypt arising from adverse transaction ForEx and we are dealing with the recently imposed carbonated soft drink tax in Saudi Arabia.

同樣地，在我們的亞洲、中東及北非事業部的多個市場中，我們正面臨宏觀層面的挑戰，包括埃及貨幣大幅貶值，以及由於油價長期低迷而在中東多個市場造成的經濟影響。與此相關，我們在埃及因不利的交易外匯（ForEx）而出現顯著的成本通膨，同時也在應對沙烏地阿拉伯近期施行的碳酸軟性飲料稅。

So we're adjusting our business to address these challenges. We are pricing to cover the increased cost of doing business, we are going more aggressively after productivity to reduce our overall costs and we continue to transform our beverage portfolio to offer more noncarbonated options and reducing sugar levels across the portfolio.

因此，我們正在調整業務以因應這些挑戰。我們透過定價來覆蓋經營成本的上升，更積極推動生產力提升以降低整體成本，並持續轉型我們的飲料產品組合，提供更多非碳酸選擇，同時在整體產品組合中降低糖含量。

On the other hand, we are encouraged by a number of bright spots in the region including China where we saw double-digit beverage organic revenue growth and mid-single-digit snack organic revenue growth in markets like Pakistan and Egypt where organic revenue was up double digit.

另一方面，區域內也有一些亮點令我們備受鼓舞，包括中國，我們在當地看到飲料有機營收呈現兩位數成長；以及在巴基斯坦與埃及等市場，零食有機營收呈現中個位數成長，而在埃及等市場有機營收亦呈兩位數上升。

And finally, turning to Europe and Sub-Sahara Africa. We had very good results across the region with organic revenue growth in each of our major markets and a sequential acceleration overall. Russia, our largest market in the region, had mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and very strong operating margin improvement. As you saw in the release, our results also benefited from our sale of a minority stake in Britvic. Even excluding this gain, core operating profit was up 19%, so we are very encouraged by the performance in the region and are optimistic about the outlook for the balance of the year. We continue to manage what's in our control and our portfolio of products and geographies is working.

最後，談到歐洲與撒哈拉以南非洲。我們在整個區域取得非常好的成果，在各主要市場皆實現有機營收成長，且整體呈現逐季加速。俄羅斯是我們在該區域最大的市場，有機營收呈中個位數成長，營業利益率改善非常強勁。如同你們在新聞稿中所見，我們的業績也受惠於出售 Britvic 的少數股權。即使排除此項收益，核心營業利益仍成長 19%，因此我們對該區域的表現深受鼓舞，並對今年剩餘期間的展望保持樂觀。我們持續管理我們可控的事項，而我們的產品與地理布局組合正在發揮作用。

And so with half-year behind us and our performance overall in line with our plans and expectations, we remain very much on track to deliver our full year financial targets of at least 3% organic revenue growth and 8% core constant currency EPS growth.

因此，在上半年已過、且整體表現符合我們的計畫與預期之下，我們仍然穩步朝向達成全年財務目標前進：至少 3% 的有機營收成長，以及 8% 的核心固定匯率 EPS 成長。

And we continue to deliver these strong reliable results even as our industry is undergoing some interesting shifts from multiple angles.

即便我們的產業正從多個角度經歷一些有趣的轉變，我們仍持續交付這些強勁且可靠的成果。

Consumer habits and behaviors continue to evolve. While some trends like consumers' increasing demand for convenience and variety have been present for decades, but are becoming more pronounced. Consumer shopping habits are rapidly adapting to evolving new retail formats, and their lifestyles are increasingly influenced by pervasive social and digital media and mobile technology.

消費者的習慣與行為持續演變。雖然某些趨勢，例如消費者對便利性與多樣性的需求提升，已存在數十年，但正變得更加明顯。消費者的購物習慣正快速適應不斷演進的新零售型態，而他們的生活方式也日益受到無所不在的社群與數位媒體以及行動科技的影響。

And this, in turn, requires new marketing models that harness the power of digital media and Big Data in a way that enables us to communicate with consumers on a much more personal and individualized level. Consumers are also seeking more value and benefits from what they purchase and consume. They're also seeking more premium experiences at the same time seeking value.

而這反過來要求新的行銷模式，以運用數位媒體與大數據的力量，使我們能在更個人化、更加量身打造的層級與消費者溝通。消費者也希望從他們購買與消費的產品中獲得更多價值與效益。他們同時也在追求更高端的體驗，並且仍在尋求價值。

And across the spectrum, consumers continue to be interested in health and wellness, but with differing definitions, often not science-based of what this means.

而在各個層面上，消費者仍持續關注健康與福祉，但對其意涵的定義各不相同，且往往並非以科學為基礎。

Perhaps more pronounced are the changes we are witnessing in retail were the lines are blurring between channels. Brick-and-mortar retailers are building deep e-commerce capability, pure-play e-commerce is moving into brick-and-mortar and virtually every channel is melding aspects of grocery, convenience, foodservice, meal kits, prepared meals and home delivery.

或許更為明顯的是，我們在零售端所見的變化：各通路之間的界線正逐漸模糊。實體零售商正在建立深厚的電商能力，純電商也正走向實體通路，而幾乎每一種通路都在融合雜貨、便利、餐飲服務、餐盒組（meal kits）、即食餐點與到府配送等元素。

So with all this change occurring and at an accelerated pace, we can look upon this period in our industry with hesitation and pessimism or with a sense of excitement and optimism. We choose to take the optimistic approach because this period offers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to strengthen our business and capture new avenues of growth. We believe we are well positioned to win in this environment. In fact, we anticipated and prepared for many of the trends we are witnessing today.

因此，在所有這些變化以加速的速度發生之際，我們可以以猶豫與悲觀看待產業的這段時期，也可以以興奮與樂觀的心態面對。我們選擇採取樂觀的方式，因為這段時期提供了千載難逢的機會，讓我們強化業務並掌握新的成長途徑。我們相信我們已具備良好定位，能在此環境中勝出。事實上，我們已預見並為今日所見的許多趨勢做好準備。

To begin, we participate in growing categories with products that are well suited to consumers' continued desire for convenience, on-the-go portability and snacking in place of structured meals. Many of our brands occupy the #1 and #2 spot in their respective categories, giving them the scale to cut through an increasingly cluttered and fragmented media landscape, especially in the digital realm.

首先，我們參與的是成長中的品類，並提供非常契合消費者持續追求便利、隨行攜帶，以及以零食取代制式正餐需求的產品。我們許多品牌在各自品類中位居第 1 或第 2，這使其具備規模優勢，能在日益擁擠且碎片化的媒體環境中脫穎而出，尤其是在數位領域。

Our product portfolio had the stretch to continue to evolve with consumer needs. We have the ability to innovate to provide new benefits and value to the consumer in ways that are not only consistent with the brand's equity, but in many ways strengthen it.

我們的產品組合具備延展性，能持續隨消費者需求演進。我們具備創新能力，能以不僅符合品牌資產、且在許多方面能強化品牌資產的方式，為消費者提供新的效益與價值。

A few examples come to mind. Lipton Tea. Over the years, we have not only added more variety, but we have strengthened the brand by introducing increasingly premium offerings, first with Pure Leaf and more recently with the Tea House Collection, resulting in the leading share position we enjoy today.

有幾個例子浮現在腦海。立頓茶（Lipton Tea）。多年來，我們不僅增加更多樣化選擇，也透過推出愈來愈高端的產品來強化品牌——先是 Pure Leaf，近期則是 Tea House Collection——使我們得以享有今日的領先市占地位。

Or Mountain Dew, where over time we've expanded the trademark from traditional green bottle dew and Diet DEW to exciting line extensions like Code Red, White Out and Voltage and our very successful Kickstart lineup. Or Doritos, where our loyal consumers have embraced flavor extensions of the core product and innovations we have taken to foodservice and quick-serve restaurants.

或是激浪（Mountain Dew），隨著時間推移，我們將該商標從傳統的綠瓶 Dew 與 Diet DEW，擴展到令人興奮的系列延伸產品，如 Code Red、White Out、Voltage，以及我們非常成功的 Kickstart 產品線。或是多力多滋（Doritos），我們的忠實消費者擁抱核心產品的口味延伸，以及我們帶入餐飲服務與速食餐廳的創新。

Or Quaker, where we have provided increasing portability and convenience to a hearty, healthy breakfast through the introduction of Breakfast Squares and Breakfast Flats.

或是桂格（Quaker），我們透過推出 Breakfast Squares 與 Breakfast Flats，為豐盛且健康的早餐提供更高的隨行攜帶性與便利性。

Beyond our product advent advantages, we also have a well-balanced geographic footprint that enables us to weather pockets of macroeconomic volatility. Importantly, we have extremely strong relationships with our retail partners and meaningful presence and scale across all our relevant channels. In each of our 5 largest markets comprising approximately 75% of our total net revenue, we're the largest or #2 food and beverage manufacturer based on retail sales.

除了我們在產品上的先發優勢之外，我們也擁有均衡的地理布局，讓我們能度過局部的宏觀經濟波動。更重要的是，我們與零售合作夥伴之間有極為強健的關係，並在所有相關通路中具備重要的存在感與規模。在我們 5 個最大市場（約占我們總淨營收的 75%）中，按零售銷售額計算，我們是最大的或排名第 2 的食品與飲料製造商。

Regardless of channel, our products and brands possess a number of important characteristics that make them highly appealing to our customers. They're often purchased on impulse, which makes them highly incremental and therefore build basket and box size. On promotion, they drive traffic. They are highly complementary to other food and beverage purchases and they have high velocities, which makes them very productive in whatever shelf they occupy and therefore they are big cash flow generators. These attributes translate to the very foundation of the value we bring to our customers regardless of channel. We deliver sales growth and cash flow for our customers.

不論通路為何，我們的產品與品牌都具備多項重要特質，使其對客戶極具吸引力。它們常以衝動性購買為主，這使其具有高度增量效應，因而能提升購物籃與箱購規模。在促銷時，它們能帶動來客數。它們與其他食品與飲料購買高度互補，且周轉速度高，使其在所占據的任何貨架上都非常高效，因此也是重要的現金流創造者。這些特質構成了我們不論在任何通路為客戶帶來價值的根本基礎。我們為客戶帶來銷售成長與現金流。

And our partnership with customers goes well beyond supplying great products. Our deep capabilities, enabled by our scale and years of extensive investment, allow us to work with a strategic partner delivering value in the areas of supply chain management, consumer and shopper insight, social and digital consumer engagement, research and development, design, data analytics and e-commerce.

而我們與客戶的合作關係遠不止於供應優質產品。我們深厚的能力——由我們的規模與多年大量投資所支撐——使我們能以策略夥伴的角色合作，在供應鏈管理、消費者與購物者洞察、社群與數位消費者互動、研發、設計、數據分析與電子商務等領域提供價值。

In fact, our execution with retailers, leveraging the full breadth of our capabilities, led us to be named the #1 best-in-class manufacturer in the most recent annual Kantar Retail PowerRanking survey in the United States. And this was further reinforced a few weeks ago when I attended the Consumer Goods Forum in Berlin. In meeting after meeting with our retail partners from around the globe, they expressed how much they value the growth we generate for them.

事實上，我們憑藉全方位能力與零售商協同執行的成果，使我們在美國最新一年度的 Kantar Retail PowerRanking 調查中，被評為同級最佳的第 1 名製造商。幾週前我在柏林出席消費品論壇（Consumer Goods Forum）時，這一點也再次得到印證。在與來自全球各地的零售合作夥伴一場又一場的會議中，他們表達了他們多麼重視我們為他們帶來的成長。

And finally, one of the most compelling reasons for our optimism is our culture. Over decades, we have built and developed a culture that thrives on change. We have the heart of a challenger, a can-do spirit with a must-do resolve. We view the evolution of our business, whether it's products, supply chains, processes, organizations or business models as our natural state. Our business today is very different than it was 5 years ago, and we expect it to be very different 5 years from now.

最後，我們樂觀的最有說服力原因之一，是我們的文化。數十年來，我們建立並發展出一種能在變革中茁壯的文化。我們有挑戰者的心態、敢做的精神，以及必須做到的決心。我們將業務的演進——無論是產品、供應鏈、流程、組織或商業模式——視為我們的自然狀態。我們今天的業務與 5 年前已大不相同，而我們也預期 5 年後會非常不同。

Consider our beverage portfolio transformation that began decades ago when we declared that we will become a total beverage company, and over the years, we have built an enviable portfolio of leading brands across virtually every sub-segment of the beverage category including Gatorade, Tropicana, Aquafina, Lipton and Starbucks through organic introductions, joint ventures and acquisitions. And this transformation continues as evidenced by recent introductions of products like LIFEWTR, Lemon Lemon and IZZE FUSIONS and our acquisition of KeVita.

想想我們的飲料產品組合轉型：這項轉型始於數十年前，當時我們宣示要成為一家「全品類飲料公司」。多年來，我們透過自有新品推出、合資與併購，建立了令人稱羨的領導品牌組合，涵蓋飲料品類幾乎所有子細分市場，包括 Gatorade、Tropicana、Aquafina、Lipton 以及 Starbucks。而這項轉型仍在持續，近期推出的 LIFEWTR、Lemon Lemon、IZZE FUSIONS 等產品，以及我們收購 KeVita，都是明證。

Or how we have continued to evolve our supply chain over the years as the retail landscape has changed and new technologies have come to market. Our supply chain at Frito-Lay today is very different from the one we operated just a few years ago. For example, our deployment of GES has enabled us to handle more SKUs, fulfill demand with greater speed and accuracy, improve product quality and freshness and operate more efficiently.

又或者，我們如何隨著零售環境變化與新技術上市，多年來持續演進我們的供應鏈。Frito-Lay 今日的供應鏈，與我們僅在幾年前運作的供應鏈已截然不同。例如，我們部署 GES 使我們能處理更多 SKU，以更快且更精準的速度滿足需求，提升產品品質與新鮮度，並以更高效率營運。

Or our embrace of Performance with Purpose, the journey we embarked on more than 10 years ago that has transformed our business to adapt to the changing world around us. We have reduced added sugars, saturated fat and sodium in many of our products while continuing to expand our lineup of nutritious foods and beverages to meet growing consumer demand.

或是我們擁抱「以使命促進績效」（Performance with Purpose）：這是我們在 10 多年前啟動的旅程，已使我們的業務轉型，以適應周遭世界的變化。我們在許多產品中降低了添加糖、飽和脂肪與鈉含量，同時持續擴大營養食品與飲料的產品陣容，以滿足消費者日益成長的需求。

Our product transformation efforts to date have resulted in a portfolio where we now derive approximately 45% of our net revenue from products that we refer to as guilt-free. These products include diet and other beverages that contain 70 calories or less from added sugar per 12-ounce serving and snacks with low levels of sodium and saturated fat as well as what we call Everyday Nutrition products. And a full 28 points of the 45 points is made up of what we refer to as Everyday Nutrition, products with positive nutrients like grains, fruits and vegetables, protein, unsweetened tea and water.

迄今為止，我們的產品轉型努力已使我們的產品組合中，約 45% 的淨營收來自我們稱為「無負擔」（guilt-free）的產品。這些產品包括：每 12 盎司份量中由添加糖帶來的熱量不超過 70 卡路里的無糖/低糖與其他飲料、低鈉與低飽和脂肪的零食，以及我們所稱的「日常營養」（Everyday Nutrition）產品。而在這 45 個百分點中，有足足 28 個百分點來自我們所稱的「日常營養」——含有穀物、水果與蔬菜、蛋白質、無糖茶與水等正向營養素的產品。

We have steadily improved our operational water use and energy efficiency, reducing our packaging and waste and promoting responsible agricultural practices globally. We have built a workplace that attracts and retains the world's best and brightest. And we intend to continue to make strides in these areas. We have announced even more aggressive product, planet and people goals that we intend to achieve by 2025.

我們持續提升營運用水與能源效率，減少包裝與廢棄物，並在全球推動負責任的農業實務。我們打造了一個能吸引並留住全球最優秀人才的職場。我們也打算在這些領域持續取得進展。我們已宣布更具企圖心的產品、地球與人才目標，並計畫在 2025 年前達成。

Net, we feel very good about where we stand.

總的來說，我們對目前的定位感到非常滿意。

We have a leading product portfolio, balanced development across channels and geographies, broad capabilities, a robust productivity agenda, a great corporate culture and excellent talent. These factors in combination have enabled us to continue to deliver an attractive balance of top line and bottom line growth. And they give us the confidence to lead into an ever-changing environment with a sense of excitement and cautious optimism.

我們擁有領先的產品組合、在通路與地理區域上的均衡發展、廣泛的能力、強健的生產力議程、優秀的企業文化與卓越的人才。這些因素的結合，使我們得以持續交出具吸引力的營收端與獲利端成長平衡。它們也讓我們有信心在不斷變化的環境中領航，並帶著興奮感與審慎的樂觀態度前進。

With that, let me turn the call over to Hugh. Hugh?

接下來，我把電話交給 Hugh。Hugh？

Thank you, Indra, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Indra，各位早安。

Let's move to our outlook for 2017. Looking ahead and as we set out in the release, we continue to expect organic revenue growth of at least 3%, fueled by successful product innovation and strong marketplace execution, but tempered by a cautious macro outlook. Based on current market consensus rates, foreign exchange is expected to negatively impact full year reported net revenue by approximately 2 percentage points, consistent with our previous guidance and negatively impact core EPS by approximately 2 percentage points, which is a 1 point improvement from our previous guidance. We intend to reinvest the Britvic share sale gain in the balance of the year, so I would encourage you not to flow through the impact of the gain in your full year models. Given the variety of macro issues we are facing around the globe, we think it is prudent to use this upside to strengthen the business.

我們來看 2017 年的展望。展望未來，正如我們在新聞稿中所述，我們仍預期有機營收成長至少 3%，由成功的產品創新與強勁的市場執行所驅動，但會受到審慎的總體經濟展望所抑制。依據目前市場共識匯率，預期外匯將使全年已報告淨營收約減少 2 個百分點，與我們先前指引一致；並使核心 EPS 約減少 2 個百分點，較我們先前指引改善 1 個百分點。我們打算在今年剩餘期間將 Britvic 持股出售收益再投資，因此我建議各位不要在全年模型中把該收益的影響直接流入。鑑於我們在全球面臨各式各樣的總體議題，我們認為審慎起見，應運用這項上行空間來強化業務。

As a result of the improvement in foreign exchange outlook on earnings, we now expect core earnings of $5.13 per share. This reflects core constant currency EPS growth of 8%, offset by the 2-point ForEx impact.

由於外匯對獲利的展望有所改善，我們現在預期核心每股盈餘為 5.13 美元。這反映核心固定匯率 EPS 成長 8%，並被 2 個百分點的外匯影響所抵銷。

In terms of other key considerations and assumptions embedded in our full year outlook. We continue to expect raw material inflation, driven by both an increase in our basket of commodities and additional pressure from transaction ForEx. We continue to expect core operating margin expansion fueled by our productivity programs, and we continue to expect our core effective tax rate to be approximately 24%.

就我們全年展望中納入的其他關鍵考量與假設而言：我們仍預期原物料通膨，主要由我們商品組合成本上升以及交易外匯帶來的額外壓力所驅動。我們仍預期在生產力計畫帶動下，核心營業利益率將擴張；同時也仍預期核心有效稅率約為 24%。

Turning to cash flow, we expect to continue to generate strong cash flow and to exercise discipline over capital allocation with prudent reinvestment into the business and the majority of our free cash flow, excluding certain items, to be returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

談到現金流，我們預期將持續產生強勁現金流，並在資本配置上保持紀律，審慎地再投資於業務；同時，我們大部分的自由現金流（不含特定項目）將透過股利與庫藏股回購回饋股東。

So for 2017, we continue to expect approximately $10 billion in cash flow from operations, net capital spending of approximately $3 billion, approximately $7 billion in free cash flow excluding certain items, cash dividends of approximately $4.5 billion. Recall that we previously announced a 7% increase in our quarterly dividend beginning with the June payment, this represents the 45th consecutive year in which we have increased our dividend. And share repurchases of approximately $2 billion.

因此就 2017 年而言，我們仍預期營運活動現金流約 100 億美元，資本支出淨額約 30 億美元，不含特定項目的自由現金流約 70 億美元，現金股利約 45 億美元。請記得，我們先前已宣布自 6 月發放起將季度股利提高 7%，這是我們連續第 45 年提高股利。以及約 20 億美元的股票回購。

Finally, as you update your models, I'd like to highlight the following 3 items as they relate to the balance of the year. First, please keep in mind that we will be lapping our strongest rate of quarterly organic revenue growth in Q3 with a particularly tough lap in our North America Beverages sector.

最後，在各位更新模型時，我想就今年剩餘期間強調以下 3 個事項。第一，請記住，我們在第三季將面臨最強的季度有機營收成長率基期，尤其是在北美飲料部門的基期特別艱難。

Second, while we are lapping some incremental investments related to the 53rd week from last year, we do intend to reinvest the Britvic share sale gain this year, hence we expect there may be some variability and volatility in the core operating margin.

第二，雖然我們正在消化去年第53週相關的一些增量投資，但我們確實打算在今年重新投入出售 Britvic 股權的收益，因此我們預期核心營業利益率可能會出現一些變動性與波動。

Third, we expect the negative impact of foreign exchange translation to be similar to what we saw this quarter. And consequently, we expect the balance of our -- balance of year core EPS growth to be weighted toward Q4.

第三，我們預期外匯換算帶來的負面影響將與本季所見相近。因此，我們預期今年核心 EPS 成長的分布將偏向第四季（Q4）。

With that, we're ready to take the first question.

接下來，我們準備開始回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of the Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley.

(接線員指示) 您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Dara Mohsenian。

So Indra, I was hoping you could give us some perspective on the U.S. CPG environment. Obviously, it's been weak year-to-date, but also specifically in Q2, we've seen category weakness across-the-board including your segments. So I was hoping for detail on what's driving the softness, in your mind, from a consumer standpoint across CPG? Are you seeing any signs of improvement in Q3? I guess Hugh's comment on the tough top line comparison might indicate you're not so far. But any reason to think basically that consumer outlook may improve in the back half of the year? And then specifically on your business, the flat Frito-Lay North America volume result in Q2 are essentially flat. Do you think that'll improve in the back half of the year? And how concerned are you also on the U.S. carbonated soft drink side by the year-over-year market share losses and plans to improve that going forward?

Indra，我希望您能就美國 CPG（民生消費品）環境提供一些觀點。顯然，今年迄今表現偏弱，且特別是在第二季（Q2），我們看到各品類普遍走弱，包括你們的各個部門。因此我想請您從消費者角度，說明您認為推動 CPG 整體疲軟的原因是什麼？您在第三季（Q3）是否看到任何改善跡象？我想 Hugh 對艱難營收比較基期的評論可能表示你們還沒走出低谷。但是否有任何理由認為消費者展望在下半年可能改善？另外就你們的業務而言，Frito-Lay 北美在第二季的銷量結果持平、基本上是持平。您認為這在下半年會改善嗎？此外，在美國碳酸軟性飲料方面，您對年對年市占下滑有多擔心，以及未來改善的計畫是什麼？

That was 10 questions, very wonderfully rolled into one, but we're going to try to answer every one of those. Let me start by saying that I think you're beginning to see the limitations of syndicated data because as I mentioned in my script, the channels are beginning to blur between foodservice, retail, home delivery, restaurants, everything, the channels are beginning to blur. And when you have blurring channels, you now have a shopping occasion being replaced by a home delivery or replaced by a meal delivery of kits. So what we have to do is rethink what is the real growth of the marketplace, the food and beverage marketplace, in a much more holistic way. There's no question that the syndicated data showed a slowdown in the overall market, I'd say, in the first half. Rather than talk about quarter-to-quarter, let's just talk about the first half. Slightly south of 2% is what we saw in the first half. But I think if you include a much broader definition of the market, I think you're going to see what the traditional growth is, which is population plus some, more in the range of somewhere between 2% and 2.5%. I think that's what you'll see as an overall growth rate. I think we all, as manufacturers, have to start to rethink how we serve this multiplicity of channels and how we should retool our business models to serve every one of these fragmenting channels. That's the challenge all of us have and we've been looking at that very, very carefully.

這是 10 個問題，非常巧妙地合併成一個，但我們會努力把每一個都回答到。我先說，我認為你開始看到綜合零售追蹤數據（syndicated data）的侷限性，因為如我在講稿中提到的，各通路之間開始變得模糊：餐飲服務、零售、到府配送、餐廳等，一切通路都在模糊化。當通路模糊時，一次購物情境可能被到府配送取代，或被餐食套組配送取代。因此我們必須以更整體的方式重新思考食品飲料市場的真實成長。毫無疑問，綜合數據顯示整體市場在上半年放緩。與其談季度對季度，我們就談上半年。我們在上半年看到的成長率略低於 2%。但我認為若納入更廣義的市場定義，你會看到傳統的成長，也就是人口成長再加上一些增量，約落在 2% 到 2.5% 之間。我認為這會是整體成長率。我想我們所有製造商都必須開始重新思考，如何服務這種多元通路，以及如何調整我們的商業模式來服務每一個正在碎片化的通路。這是我們所有人共同面臨的挑戰，而我們也一直非常、非常仔細地在研究。

Now let's talk a little bit about the category weakness. I think we've -- on salty snacks in particular, let me speak to that. Our belief, and we watch volume, revenue and pricing very, very carefully on a weekly basis. I think where the market is today, when we can take pricing, we should take the pricing. And we've been trying to move the portfolio more to premium products. And the good news is that we're actually making progress in Frito-Lay to move the business more to premium products. And so I'd say this thing will right itself, we are gaining share overall in the marketplace. We're gaining value share, which is really what we are focused on. We are managing the mix very carefully, managing channel mix, product mix very carefully. We feel pretty good about the Frito-Lay performance. And where we are moving the portfolio, nudging it towards premium, balancing the value, mainstream part of the portfolio very, very carefully. So we feel good about that. On the beverage side, we've got good price realizations, so I feel good about that. Do I have some concerns about our carbonated soft drink business? Not concerns, but I think they have more opportunity. And I think that as we move towards the second half of the year and we sort of fine-tune our calendar, you'll start us -- you'll seeing more activity from us on carbonated soft drinks. On balance, we have good innovation. And I wouldn't say we're concerned, but we are watching it very, very carefully to make sure that everything that we can control, we do right by these businesses. Big businesses, very attractive businesses, we just want to make sure we get our fair share of those businesses. The key thing is we're going to focus on price realization and let marketing drive the top line.

現在我們來談談品類疲弱。我想我們——特別是鹹味零食，我先談這個。我們的看法是，我們每週都非常、非常仔細地觀察銷量、營收與定價。我認為以目前市場狀況，只要我們能夠調價，就應該調價。而我們一直嘗試把產品組合更多地轉向高端產品。好消息是，我們在 Frito-Lay 確實正在推進，讓業務更多轉向高端產品。因此我會說，這件事會自我修正；我們在整體市場上正在提升市占。我們正在提升價值市占（value share），這才是我們真正關注的。我們非常謹慎地管理組合，包括通路組合、產品組合。我們對 Frito-Lay 的表現感到相當不錯。以及我們推動產品組合、逐步往高端移動，同時非常、非常謹慎地平衡產品組合中偏價值、主流的部分。所以我們對此感覺良好。在飲料方面，我們有不錯的價格實現（price realizations），所以我也覺得不錯。我對我們的碳酸軟性飲料業務有一些擔憂嗎？不是擔憂，但我認為它們有更多機會。我認為當我們進入下半年並且稍微微調行事曆時，你會開始看到——你會看到我們在碳酸軟性飲料上有更多活動。整體而言，我們有良好的創新。我不會說我們很擔心，但我們會非常、非常仔細地觀察，確保凡是我們能控制的部分，都把這些業務做好。這些都是規模很大的業務、非常有吸引力的業務，我們只是要確保能取得我們應得的份額。關鍵是我們會聚焦在價格實現，並讓行銷帶動營收成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的 Steve Powers。

Actually, I was hoping we could just -- maybe just clean up a little bit on both those 2 topics, Frito-Lay and North American Beverages. On Frito-Lay, the 3.5 points of net pricing this quarter, is there a way to just frame how much of that was rate versus the channel or packaged mix premiumization that you called out, Indra, versus maybe some lingering Sabra effects? I'm just trying to figure out what's driving the price because to the extent -- I think the concern is that the price gap gets too wide and that becomes problematic on volume. Just like to hear your explanation there. And then on North American Beverages, I was hoping you could also give more color, maybe a quantification on the favorable legal settlement, Hugh, and the promotional spending accruals that helped segment profit there this quarter. I think that's the second quarter in a row where we've had favorable promotional spending accruals and I'd just love just to better understand the magnitude and the dynamics there?

其實我希望我們可以——也許把這兩個主題再釐清一下：Frito-Lay 與北美飲料。就 Frito-Lay 而言，本季淨定價增加 3.5 個點，是否能協助我們框架一下，其中有多少來自純粹的漲價幅度（rate），相對於您提到的通路或包裝組合高端化（mix premiumization），Indra？以及是否還有一些 Sabra 影響的延續？我只是想弄清楚是什麼在推動價格，因為在某種程度上——我想市場的擔憂是價差拉得太大，會對銷量造成問題。想聽聽您的解釋。另外在北美飲料方面，我也希望您能提供更多細節，也許量化一下本季對該部門利潤有幫助的有利法律和解（favorable legal settlement），Hugh，以及促銷支出應計（promotional spending accruals）。我想這已經是連續第二季出現有利的促銷支出應計，我很希望能更了解其規模與背後的動態？

Yes, happy to answer both of those, Steve. In terms of price versus mix in Frito, round numbers it was about 2% price and about 1.5% of mix. Mix, as Indra mentioned, is driven by premium products such as LAY'S Poppables. So when you're selling a potato puff, you're obviously filling the bag with less weight than you would, say, with a bag of Fritos. We think that's a good win for the consumer and it's obviously a good win for us as well.

是的，Steve，很樂意把這兩個都回答。就 Frito 的價格與組合（mix）而言，概略來看大約是 2% 來自價格、約 1.5% 來自組合。如 Indra 提到的，組合主要是由 LAY'S Poppables 這類高端產品所帶動。所以當你賣的是馬鈴薯泡芙時，很明顯你裝進袋子裡的重量會比例如一袋 Fritos 來得少。我們認為這對消費者是很好的勝利，對我們而言顯然也是很好的勝利。

And it's a great-tasting product.

而且這是一款非常好吃的產品。

Fantastic-tasting product. In terms of the legal settlement and the other items that you mentioned, it was in the teens in millions. So it was a not small number, but not a gigantic number by any stretch of imagination.

非常非常好吃的產品。至於你提到的法律和解以及其他項目，金額是數百萬美元的十幾（teen）位數。所以不是小數目，但也絕對稱不上是非常巨大的數字。

Your next question comes from the line of Ali Dibadj of Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Ali Dibadj。

Wanted to touch on 2 topics, if I could, please. One, Indra, your first answer this morning around changes of channels and shift that you mentioned in your prepared remarks as well, have you guys really figured out how to sell impulse online well? How do you get that cold icy package or quick $0.89 or $0.99 bag of Lay's to really resonate online without the immediacy of that channel? It seems to be becoming a bigger and bigger deal given just lower foot traffic in brick-and-mortar, so love to hear your philosophy on that. The second topic I want to dig a little bit deeper on, a few folks have mentioned early, Steve mentioned a second ago was on operating margins more broadly. So was hoping if you could quantify operating margins, the impact productivity, the impact of commodities, the impact of promotional spending, accrual settlements as well as the marketing spend. Because if I look at 2 of those in particular, on productivity, we've heard from many, many years now, doing all those cost savings on an annual basis, but we don't actually see your SG&A as a percentage of sales particularly low versus peers even with some adjustments, given the bottler restructure, et cetera. And we're now starting to see operating -- core operating margins have difficulty expanding, in fact they're down 10 basis points this quarter. So is it that the low-hanging fruit is most difficult -- is harder to get now? I mean the lowest-hanging fruit, I guess, is gone and it's hard to show. So love some more detail after quantification on productivity. And on marketing spend, you didn't increase marketing spend in FLNA, QFNA, NAB, AMENA this quarter and it looks like [your data] as well, and that's where you're seeing volume struggles. And on the one hand, you could say -- one could say, well, that's causality so no ad spend growth leads to challenged volume growth? Or actually is it judicious decision-making because those markets aren't going to grow anyway? So I know there's a lot packed in there, but it's really around on the second part of the topic of operating margins, please?

如果可以的話，我想請教兩個主題。第一個，Indra，你今天早上第一個回答談到通路變化以及你在事先準備的講稿裡也提到的轉移，你們是否真的已經摸索出如何把「衝動型購買」在線上賣得很好？要如何讓那種冰冷的冷藏包裝，或是一包 0.89 或 0.99 美元的 Lay's 小包，能在缺少該通路即時性的情況下，仍然在線上引起共鳴？考量到實體店人流下降，這似乎變得越來越重要，所以很想聽聽你們的理念。第二個主題我想再深入一點，有幾位先前提到，Steve 剛剛也提到的是更廣泛的營業利益率（operating margins）。所以希望你們能量化說明營業利益率：生產力（productivity）的影響、大宗原物料（commodities）的影響、促銷支出的影響、應計和解（accrual settlements）以及行銷支出（marketing spend）的影響。因為如果我特別看其中兩項：在生產力方面，我們多年來一直聽到你們每年都在做各種成本節省，但即使做了一些調整（例如裝瓶商重組等），我們其實並沒有看到你們的 SG&A 佔銷售額比重相較同業特別低。而我們現在開始看到營業——核心營業利益率擴張有困難，事實上本季還下滑了 10 個基點。所以是否是因為最容易摘的果實現在——更難取得了？也就是說，最容易的那一批我想已經沒有了，因此很難再展現？所以在量化之後，希望能就生產力提供更多細節。另外在行銷支出方面，你們本季在 FLNA、QFNA、NAB、AMENA 都沒有增加行銷支出，看起來 [your data] 也是如此，而這些市場正是你們出現銷量壓力的地方。一方面可以說——有人可能會說，這是因果關係：廣告支出不成長就導致銷量成長受挑戰？或者其實這是審慎的決策，因為那些市場本來就不會成長？我知道這裡面塞了很多問題，但第二部分主要是想請教關於營業利益率的議題，可以嗎？

Okay. So I'm going to let Hugh get all the answers ready for the 10 questions you asked on operating margin, Ali. Let me talk about the changes in channels. We're all figuring it out as we go along. The good news is our e-commerce business is growing brilliantly. We're doing very, very well. We are not yet ready to talk about it in any significant way. Maybe in the next couple of calls, we will start focusing on that, but it's growing really, really nicely. But it's growing with our traditional products and our traditional packaging, if you want to call it that. There's clearly an opportunity for us to think about innovation for e-commerce, which is what we're all focused on. We want to make sure that our snacks are more shippable, not just in click and collect, but more also for deliveries so that the cube efficiency is there. And on beverages, I think there are 2 issues: one, is the cold delivery of the beverages if consumers so desire ice-cold beverages delivered to them, which I find it hard to believe, but you can never tell. And then how do we make sure that we address this whole delivery of water because beverages is largely water.

好的。那我先讓 Hugh 把你關於營業利益率的 10 個問題的答案都準備好，Ali。我先談談通路的變化。我們都是邊做邊摸索。好消息是，我們的電商業務成長非常亮眼。我們做得非常、非常好。我們還沒準備好以任何有意義的方式來談它。也許再接下來幾次電話會議，我們會開始把焦點放在這上面，但它確實成長得非常、非常好。不過它目前的成長主要來自我們的傳統產品與傳統包裝（如果你要這麼稱呼的話）。很明顯，我們有機會思考針對電商的創新，這也是我們大家正在聚焦的方向。我們希望確保我們的零食更適合運送，不只是到店取貨（click and collect），也更適合外送，讓箱體（cube）效率能夠到位。至於飲料，我認為有兩個議題：第一，如果消費者真的想要把冰到很冷的飲料外送到家，也就是冷鏈配送——我覺得很難相信，但你永遠不知道。第二，我們要如何確保能處理「水的配送」這件事，因為飲料很大一部分其實就是水。

So we are looking at meaningful innovation, both in snacks and beverages, in order to address the exploding growth of e-commerce. And with our big brands, I think we are well-positioned. Now let me come to the impulse nature of our products. I think the whole e-commerce area is going to be impulse as you see it in a brick-and-mortar store, which then translates to e-commerce and it becomes part of a replenishment cycle. But then as people stopped going to brick-and-mortar and start shopping only on e-commerce, which well could be the Gen Z, new iGeneration, if you want to call it that. I think the new digital tools can easily afford you the ability to create the impulse experience online. We've seen so many virtual reality tools right now that can actually simulate grocery stores or whatever version of a grocery store you want online. And you can easily navigate the aisles, and just with a click, shop for whatever you want. So I think in an interesting way, there's infinite possibilities to create impulse all through technology online. And I think as this market matures and evolves, you're going to see a lot of that happening, and we are focused on developing all of these tools ourselves with our e-commerce partners to make sure that we are responsive to them when they so choose to go that way. So with that, let me turn it to Hugh to give you the treatise on operating margin.

因此，為了因應電商爆炸性的成長，我們正在針對零食與飲料兩個品類，尋求具實質意義的創新。以我們的大品牌來看，我認為我們具備很好的布局。接著談談我們產品的衝動性（impulse）特質。我認為整個電商領域會出現你在實體店看到的那種衝動購買，然後轉化到電商，並成為補貨循環（replenishment cycle）的一部分。但當人們不再去實體店、開始只在電商購物時——這很可能就是 Z 世代、新的 i 世代（如果你要這麼稱呼的話）。我認為新的數位工具很容易讓你有能力在線上創造衝動購買的體驗。我們現在看到很多虛擬實境工具，實際上可以模擬雜貨店，或任何你想要的線上雜貨店版本。你可以很容易地在走道間瀏覽，然後只要點一下，就能買到你想要的任何東西。所以我認為很有意思的是，透過線上科技，有無限的可能性可以創造衝動購買。而且我認為隨著這個市場成熟與演進，你會看到很多這樣的事情發生；我們也正專注於與電商夥伴一起開發這些工具，確保當他們選擇走這條路時，我們能夠即時回應。那麼，接下來我把時間交給 Hugh，請他就營業利益率給你一篇完整的論述。

Sure, happy to. Ali, a couple of comments on that. First is, as we pointed out at the beginning of the year, we expect to see operating margin improvement strengthen as we go from the front half to the back half. That's what you saw from Q1 going to Q2 and that's what you'll see as we head into the back half of the year as well. So I think things generally are tracking to our expectations. Regarding advertising and marketing spend, we've said many times that we would invest further in A&M to the degree that we saw a return on investing further in A&M. As we move from 5.2% of sales to 5.7%, that was a move to get more competitive as we moved over the past 4 years from 5.7% to about 6.7% of sales, those were all based on good ROI. So I think you'll see the A&M change as we introduce new products or as we see opportunities to earn a good return. We're not going to blindly put money into A&M. Do I think you'll see A&M going backwards? No, I don't expect that to be the case in a meaningful way. It could go forward to the degree that we see good investment opportunities. More broadly on productivity, truthfully, I think we have years of productivity still in front of us. The cost bucket that we evaluate productivity against, what we call OpEx, is about $28 billion. It's got a natural inflation rate of 3% to 4% per year. So as we continue to drive 4%-ish types of productivity, you see that bucket basically staying relatively flat. I do expect that we will, as we've guided in the past, continue to see steady margin improvement while we reinvest in growth. So I think, overall, the margin-versus-growth equation is one that hasn't changed much relative to where we've been in recent years.

當然，很樂意。Ali，關於這點我有幾點評論。第一，正如我們在年初指出的，我們預期隨著時間從上半年走向下半年，營業利益率改善會更為強勁。這就是你從第一季到第二季所看到的情況，而當我們進入今年下半年時，你也會看到同樣的趨勢。所以我認為整體而言，事情大致符合我們的預期。關於廣告與行銷支出，我們多次表示，只要我們看到進一步投資A&M能帶來回報，我們就會加大投資。當我們把占銷售額比重從5.2%提高到5.7%時，這是為了提升競爭力；而在過去4年中，我們從5.7%提高到約占銷售額6.7%，這些調整都是基於良好的投資報酬率（ROI）。因此，我認為當我們推出新產品，或看到能獲得良好回報的機會時，你會看到A&M的變動。我們不會盲目把錢投入A&M。你問我是否認為A&M會往回走？不，我不預期在有意義的程度上會是那樣。若我們看到良好的投資機會，它可能會再往前增加。更廣泛地談到生產力，坦白說，我認為我們未來仍有好幾年的生產力提升空間。我們用來評估生產力的成本項目，也就是我們所稱的OpEx（營運費用），大約是280億美元。它每年的自然通膨率約為3%到4%。因此，當我們持續推動約4%左右的生產力提升時，你會看到那個成本項目基本上維持相對平坦。我確實預期，正如我們過去所指引的，在我們再投資於成長的同時，將持續看到穩健的利益率改善。所以我認為整體而言，利益率與成長之間的取捨方程式，相較於近年來我們所處的位置，並沒有太大改變。

And I think, Hugh, it's fair to say that with the changing marketplace, where there's blurring of retail channels, the consumer preferences changing, the marketing models changing, we have to invest in these new capabilities in order to generate the top line growth we're generating. So we intend to continue to invest judiciously in these new areas so we can sustain our top line growth globally.

而且我認為，Hugh，公平地說，隨著市場環境改變——零售通路界線日益模糊、消費者偏好改變、行銷模式改變——我們必須投資這些新能力，才能帶動我們目前所實現的營收成長。因此，我們打算持續審慎地投資這些新領域，以便在全球維持我們的營收成長。

Absolutely.

完全同意。

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Bryan Spillane。

One of the questions that, I guess, or themes that have come up this year specifically in North America has been, I think, with all the changes in the retail environment, some concerns about pricing and you've seen it especially in the food industry with the food stock and how they performed this year. And I think generally the concern is that there's going to be more sort of deflationary pressure at retail as retailers try to drive some traffic or keep customers. So can you kind of talk to how you're thinking about that, not so much for this year, but over the next few years? Do you think that there's going to be maybe a need to just maybe change the way you've thought about pricing philosophically just given the changes in the channels?

我想今年在北美特別出現的一個問題——或主題——是：隨著零售環境的各種變化，市場對定價有一些擔憂；你在食品產業尤其看得到，從食品類股以及它們今年的表現就能看出來。而我認為普遍的擔憂是，當零售商試圖帶動來客數或留住顧客時，零售端可能會出現更多偏向通縮的壓力。所以你能否談談你們如何看待這件事——不一定是今年，而是未來幾年？鑑於通路的變化，你是否認為在定價的理念上，可能需要改變你們過去的思考方式？

We model out different channel shifts, what could be the pricing implications. We look at analogs from Europe and there were lots of retail disruptions. And then we look at what do we need to do to get innovation-driven pricing, mix-driven pricing and then what do we need to offset with productivity, how do we need to go deeper on productivity programs. So Bryan, what we do, do is model these out constantly. We look at multiple scenarios and then we figure out how to get the best blend of top and bottom line growth in a changing retail environment. The good news is that as a retail environment shifts, we just have to retool our model for the retail environment shift. The market's still growing, that's the good news, and these are huge categories. So our goal is to capture the growth with the changing environment with our innovation and our big brands. That's why we focus so much on innovation because we believe innovation can actually create consumer demand and get us a price premium. And then we keep investing in our brands, both at the big brand level and the emerging brands like KeVita and Naked so that we can grow our business on both ends of the spectrum.

我們會針對不同的通路轉移進行建模，評估可能的定價影響。我們也會參考歐洲的類比案例，那裡曾出現許多零售端的顛覆。接著我們會看：我們需要做什麼才能實現由創新驅動的定價、由產品組合（mix）驅動的定價；以及我們需要用生產力來抵消哪些影響、需要如何更深入推動生產力計畫。所以Bryan，我們所做的就是持續不斷地把這些情境建模。我們看多種情境，然後找出在變動的零售環境中，營收與獲利成長的最佳組合。好消息是，當零售環境轉變時，我們只需要針對這個轉變重新調整我們的模式。市場仍在成長，這是好消息，而且這些都是非常大的品類。因此，我們的目標是透過創新與我們的大品牌，在環境變動中抓住成長。這也是為什麼我們如此聚焦創新，因為我們相信創新實際上能創造消費者需求，並讓我們取得價格溢價。接著我們也持續投資於品牌，既包括大品牌層級，也包括像KeVita和Naked這樣的新興品牌，讓我們能在光譜兩端都推動業務成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Swartzberg of Stifel.

下一個問題來自Stifel的Mark Swartzberg。

February, we came to an interesting point in history. It was the 5-year anniversary of your rebasing earnings, and no doubt the environment remains and arguably has become more challenging. But this year, we're at just shy of 3% organic revenue. If you look at 2012 through '16, you were at 4s and 5s. So -- and we spent time in this Q&A talking about the need to invest. So my question is simply headwinds are always there, they're always changing, but when you think about your internal capacity to invest, and of course, that relates to the resolve to cut costs and where you put that money, do you think, A, that the need to reinvest is getting greater, that you have to actually pick up the pace of investment because of the headwinds getting harder? And then, B, if it is getting harder, does -- do you think you have the resources, the ability to even up the productivity targets to address that greater pressure?

二月時，我們來到一個有趣的歷史節點。那是你們重訂基期（rebasing）盈餘的五週年，而毫無疑問，環境仍然存在挑戰，甚至可以說變得更具挑戰性。但今年，我們的有機營收成長接近3%但略低於3%。如果看2012到2016年，你們是在4%到5%的區間。所以——而我們在這段問答中也花了時間談到投資的必要性。因此我的問題很簡單：逆風總是存在，也總是在變，但當你思考你們內部的投資能力——當然這也關係到削減成本的決心，以及你把那些錢投向哪裡——你是否認為，A，因為逆風變得更強，你們再投資的需求正在變得更大，必須加快投資步伐？然後，B，如果確實變得更難，你是否認為你們有資源、有能力把生產力目標再提高，以因應更大的壓力？

I don't know about harder, I'd say different. I think it's different buckets, different areas. Some areas that we're comfortable with, some areas where we have to develop new muscle. But that's part of life in our food and beverage industry. I've been in this PepsiCo for 23 years and every 5 years or so there's a brand new skill we have to develop. And this place is amazingly resilient. We developed the muscle, we hire from the outside when we have to. We retrain and then we go on. So I wouldn't say it's getting harder, I'd just say that it's different buckets and we have to put in the work to make sure that we can deliver growth in this new environment. As I said to a response to an earlier question, we are looking at how much productivity we need to deliver to offset any price deflation if it happens because of retail disruption. So we are constantly looking at how we need to balance top line and bottom line growth. And clearly, productivity is a major factor in bottom line growth delivery. So we are looking at that. Hugh, did you want to add anything to that point?

我不確定是否是更難，我會說是不同。我認為是不同的成本項目、不同的領域。有些領域我們很有把握，有些領域我們必須培養新的能力。但這就是我們食品與飲料產業生活的一部分。我在百事公司（PepsiCo）23年了，大約每5年就會有一項全新的技能需要我們去培養。而這家公司非常有韌性。我們會把能力練起來，必要時也會從外部招募。我們會再訓練，然後繼續前進。所以我不會說變得更難，我只會說是不同的項目，我們必須投入努力，確保能在這個新環境中交付成長。正如我在回應先前一個問題時所說，我們正在評估需要交付多少生產力，才能抵消零售顛覆可能帶來的任何價格通縮（如果真的發生）。因此，我們一直在檢視需要如何平衡營收與獲利的成長。而且很明顯，生產力是交付獲利成長的一個主要因素。所以我們正在看這件事。Hugh，你想就這點補充什麼嗎？

No, I think you captured it effectively. I do think we're doing different and new skills, but that's something to be expected. And as far as having the resources, I think we can continue to drive sufficient productivity to stay ahead of the wave.

不，我認為你已經很有效地掌握重點了。我確實認為我們正在做不同且新的技能，但這是可以預期的。至於資源方面，我認為我們可以持續推動足夠的生產力，以保持領先這一波趨勢。

Yes, and I think a lot of the new technologies actually allow us to deliver more productivity. We just need to -- I think the key thing people have to take away is that in order to deliver productivity downstream, you have to invest upstream. So you have to deliver -- invest today to get the benefits tomorrow. Benefits don't come out of thin air and so what we are doing is investing today to get more productivity downstream.

是的，而且我認為許多新技術其實讓我們能交付更高的生產力。我們只是需要——我認為大家必須帶走的關鍵是：要在下游交付生產力，你必須在上游投資。所以你必須——今天投資，才能在明天獲得效益。效益不會憑空出現，因此我們正在做的是今天投資，以在下游取得更高的生產力。

Your next question comes from the line of Pablo Zuanic of SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Pablo Zuanic。

Just a question and maybe it's going back in time, but 15 years ago, the industry went through significant consolidation with Quaker, Kraft, NABISCO, General Mills, Pillsbury, Kellogg, Keebler, and we are talking about the significant changes taking place in the retail channel. We have seen retail consolidation, consumer changes, e-commerce. Do you think the industry needs to, as you mentioned, develop new muscles and a way to do that, that we should see another consolidation wave in the industry? I mean, I guess, I'm asking [do you view] that from an industry point of view, but also from a Pepsi point of view, does size being bigger help to adapt to these new changes? Or what happened 15 years ago in hindsight was the wrong answer, the wave of consolidation. And just a quick follow-up. If Unilever were to change hands, I suppose that you could lose the Lipton agreement, right? You would be probably -- there would be a penalty that you will need to be compensated, but I assume that, that contract would be taken away, if you can expand on that?

我有個問題，或許有點回到過去：15 年前，產業經歷了顯著的整併，包括 Quaker、Kraft、NABISCO、General Mills、Pillsbury、Kellogg、Keebler，而我們現在在談零售通路正在發生的重大變化。我們看到零售整併、消費者改變、電子商務。你是否認為產業需要——如你所提到的——發展新的肌肉，而做到這一點的方式之一，是不是應該在產業中再出現一波整併？我的意思是，我想我是在問，[你是否認為]從產業角度來看是如此，但也從百事的角度來看，規模變大是否有助於適應這些新變化？或者回頭看，15 年前發生的事其實是錯誤的答案——那一波整併浪潮。另外再快速追問一下。如果聯合利華易主，我想你們可能會失去立頓（Lipton）的協議，對吧？你們可能——會有需要獲得補償的違約金，但我假設那份合約會被收回；如果你能就此多談一些？

So first of all, we don't lose the Lipton business even with change of hands so I would rest assured that we are protected there. On this whole industry outlook, Pablo, I think you guys on the sell-side are much more knowledgeable about industry and industry trends because you've been following it for such a long time. We actually read your reports to get insights into where you think the industry is going. So I'd rather depend on your opinion here and we'll keep our opinions to ourselves on this one.

首先，即使易主，我們也不會失去立頓業務，所以我會很放心地說，我們在那方面是受到保障的。至於整個產業展望，Pablo，我認為你們賣方對產業與產業趨勢的了解要比我們多得多，因為你們追蹤很久了。我們其實會讀你們的報告，從中獲得你們認為產業走向何方的洞見。所以在這點上我寧可依賴你們的看法，而我們就先把我們的意見保留在自己這邊。

Your next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman of Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Lauren Lieberman。

I just wanted to follow up again on the scanner conversation and just specifically relative to your business on North America Beverages because the scanner data and your results have really been diverging 300, 400, now I think 450 basis points this quarter. So if you could just talk a little bit about where the sort of "untracked data" is coming from? And then the other piece was that at least in the scanner data, both Mountain Dew overall and specifically Kickstart and Gatorade slowed dramatically, both of those down double digit. So if you could just talk a little bit about that. Was anything specific, plans you may have where you're anticipate those to recover at least again in the tracked channel piece of it?

我想再追問一下掃描數據（scanner data）的討論，特別是相對於你們北美飲料業務，因為掃描數據與你們的業績表現一直在分歧：300、400，這一季我想已經到 450 個基點。所以你能否談談所謂「未被追蹤的數據」（untracked data）是從哪裡來的？另外一點是，至少在掃描數據中，無論是 Mountain Dew 整體，或是特別的 Kickstart，以及 Gatorade，都明顯大幅放緩，兩者都呈現雙位數下滑。所以也請你談談這部分。是否有任何特定原因？你們是否有一些計畫，預期它們至少在被追蹤通路（tracked channel）的那一部分能夠回升？

Thanks, Lauren, for the question. First of all, we don't reconcile our data with the scanner data. We just keep running the business and just we keep selling, we keep making sure that our product is on the shelf. Remember, we have high-velocity products, so we know on a weekly basis exactly what we sell and what's being pulled by the consumer. So we have good data on what's happening in the marketplace. I have no idea why the scanner data diverges so much. It's been happening in many markets and I think it reflects some of the limitation of syndicated data and they need to go back and retool it. But we are very comfortable with where we are and we're just going to keep running the business this way.

謝謝你，Lauren，謝謝這個問題。首先，我們不會把我們的數據與掃描數據做對帳（reconcile）。我們就是持續經營業務、持續銷售，並確保我們的產品在貨架上。請記得，我們有高周轉（high-velocity）的產品，所以我們每週都很清楚自己賣了什麼、消費者拉動了什麼。因此我們對市場上正在發生的事情有很好的數據。我不知道為什麼掃描數據會分歧得這麼大。這在很多市場都在發生，我認為這反映了聯合（syndicated）數據的一些限制，他們需要回去重新調整與改造。但我們對自身現況非常有信心，我們會繼續用這種方式經營業務。

So with that, let me thank you for your questions. And to summarize, we are pleased with our results for the first half. We remain on track to deliver our full year financial targets. And we feel well positioned to continue to perform well even in the midst of change and disruption.

那麼，讓我感謝各位的提問。總結來說，我們對上半年業績感到滿意。我們仍按計畫達成全年財務目標。而且我們認為，即使在變革與顛覆之中，我們也具備良好定位，能持續有良好表現。

Thank you very much for joining us this morning and for the confidence you've placed in us with your investment.

非常感謝各位今天早上加入我們，也感謝各位以投資對我們所展現的信心。

Thank you. That does conclude today's PepsiCo's Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的百事公司 2017 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。各位現在可以掛線。