Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Onto Innovation fourth quarter earnings release conference call. Today's conference is being recorded at this time. I would like to turn the conference over to Sidney Ho Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Onto Innovation 第四季財報發布電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。我想將本次會議交給 Sidney Ho 投資者關係部。請繼續。

Thank you, Rachel and good afternoon, everyone onto innovation issued is 2024 4th quarter and full year financial results this afternoon. Shortly after the market closed. If you did not receive a copy of the release, please refer to the company's website where a copy of the release is posted.

謝謝 Rachel，下午好，大家下午好，創新發布了 2024 年第四季和全年財務業績。市場收盤後不久。如果您沒有收到該發布的副本，請參閱該公司網站上發布的副本。

Joining us on the call today are Michael Plisinski, Chief Executive Officer and Mark Slicer, Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加電話會議的有執行長 Michael Plisinski 和財務長 Mark Slicer。

I'd like to remind you that the statements made by management on this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Those statements are subject to a range of changes, risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially.

我想提醒您，管理階層在本次電話會議上所作的聲明將包含聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性聲明。這些聲明受到一系列變更、風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。

For more information regarding the risk factors that may impact onto innovation's results. I would, encourage you to review our earnings release and our SEC filings Onto Innovation does not undertake the obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

有關可能影響創新結果的風險因素的更多資​​訊。我鼓勵您查看我們的收益報告和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified as a reminder, a detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings.

今天我們討論的財務結果將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現，除非另有說明，否則可以在今天的收益中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細對帳。

Let me turn the call over to our CEO Michael Plisinski, Mike.

讓我把電話轉給我們的執行長邁克爾·普利辛斯基 (Michael Plisinski)，麥克。

Thank you, Sidney. Good afternoon, everyone. And thank you for joining us on our call. Today. We capped off 2024 with our sixth consecutive quarter of growth and a new quarterly revenue record of $264 million growth from the specialty and advanced packaging markets was strong throughout the year and also culminated in a record fourth quarter, led by strong AI packaging demand.

謝謝你，西德尼。大家下午好。感謝您參加我們的電話會議。今天。我們以連續第六個季度的成長結束了 2024 年，並創下了 2.64 億美元的季度收入新紀錄，來自專業和先進封裝市場的增長全年表現強勁，並在第四季度達到創紀錄的水平，這得益於強勁的 AI 封裝需求。

Financially, gross margins improved every quarter in the year to end at nearly 55% in the fourth quarter. We'll continue our focus on driving gross and operating margin improvement throughout 2025.

從財務角度來看，毛利率在今年每季都有所提高，第四季毛利率接近 55%。我們將繼續致力於在 2025 年推動毛利率和營業利潤率的提高。

Now, let's review the fourth quarter business highlights, starting with our specialty device and advanced packaging markets which grew a healthy 30% for the calendar year. Our largest market overall in the quarter was AI packaging led by strong growth in shipments to support a 2.5D logic packaging as expected orders from HBM declined after a record third quarter.

現在，讓我們回顧一下第四季度的業務亮點，首先是我們的專用設備和先進封裝市場，這兩個市場在全年實現了 30% 的健康成長。本季我們最大的市場是 AI 封裝，這得益於支持 2.5D 邏輯封裝的出貨量強勁增長，因為預計 HBM 的訂單在創紀錄的第三季後出現下降。

However, as HBM order allocations from end markets are becoming clearer between the three main suppliers. We are seeing a pickup in demand to support the growth of two and a logic, packaging for a full year inspection revenue inspection tool revenue for AI packaging more than doubled and was split nearly equally between a 2.5D logic and HBM to support the growing complexity in advanced packaging processes.

然而，隨著三大主要供應商之間終端市場的 HBM 訂單分配變得更加清晰。我們看到對支援兩種邏輯封裝成長的需求有所回升，全年檢測收入中，AI封裝的檢測工具收入增長了一倍多，並且幾乎平均分配給2.5D邏輯和HBM，以支援先進封裝製程日益複雜的變化。

Customers are adopting more of our front-end metrology tools to improve control in both a 2.5D logic and HBM processes for the year, our metrology revenue and advanced packaging exceeded $50 million more than triple that of 2023 and we expect additional growth into the new year.

客戶正在採用我們更多的前端計量工具來改善今年 2.5D 邏輯和 HBM 製程的控制，我們的計量收入和先進封裝收入超過 5000 萬美元，是 2023 年的三倍多，我們預計新的一年還會進一步增長。

In addition to AI packaging interest is growing in the panel market particularly for the use of glass panels for enterprise server and AI applications. We're pleased that in the quarter, Firefly was adopted at two leading panel manufacturers for applications in glass and advanced IC substrates.

除了人工智慧封裝之外，面板市場的興趣也日益增長，特別是對於企業伺服器和人工智慧應用中使用的玻璃面板。我們很高興看到本季兩家領先的面板製造商採用 Firefly 技術應用於玻璃和先進的 IC 基板。

These leaders selected Firefly technology for the ability of our integrated multi sensor technology to solve a variety of application challenges beyond high resolution defect inspection, ultimately reducing or eliminating manual processes.

這些領導者之所以選擇 Firefly 技術，是因為我們的整合多感測器技術能夠解決高解析度缺陷偵測以外的各種應用挑戰，最終減少或消除手動流程。

In addition, the new customers expand our panel install base as they are not currently, JetStep X500 lithography customers. This is creating potential opportunities for future cross selling and the adoption of integrated solutions like [sef] used in panel level fan out applications also in the quarter revenue from power devices set another record and was the second largest market in the fourth quarter behind 2.5D packaging.

此外，新客戶擴大了我們的面板安裝基礎，因為他們目前不是 JetStep X500 光刻客戶。這為未來的交叉銷售和採用像[sef]這樣的集成解決方案創造了潛在的機會，該解決方案用於面板級扇出應用，本季度來自功率器件的收入創下了另一項紀錄，並成為第四季度僅次於2.5D封裝的第二大市場。

For the year power revenue grew 10% despite soft end market demand, delaying several customer expansions during the year. We believe our customers focused on driving yield improvements and we were pleased our portfolio of solutions and applications experience could contribute to that effort, switching gears to our advanced nodes markets.

儘管終端市場需求疲軟，導致當年幾家客戶擴張計畫被推遲，但全年電力收入仍成長了 10%。我們相信我們的客戶專注於提高產量，我們很高興我們的解決方案和應用經驗組合能夠為這項努力做出貢獻，轉向我們的先進節點市場。

We saw our fourth consecutive quarter of growth momentum we expect will strengthen more significantly in 2025 in the quarter, logic and memory both grew and as expected gate all around revenue was the largest increase, nearly doubling over the prior quarter. In addition to growth for our Atlas OCD tools demand for our Iris film metrology also increased with successful qualifications in memory logic and packaging reaching nearly $100 million in revenue for the year.

我們看到了連續第四個季度的成長勢頭，我們預計該季度將在 2025 年更加顯著增強，邏輯和內存均實現增長，並且正如預期的那樣，門控整體收入實現了最大增幅，幾乎比上一季度翻了一番。除了我們的 Atlas OCD 工具的成長之外，對我們的 Iris 膠片計量的需求也隨著記憶體邏輯和封裝方面的成功認證而增加，當年的收入達到了近 1 億美元。

We expect demand for our iris films to grow further in the new year as we expand both customers and markets served concluding our highlights for the fourth quarter. We've recently launched several new products aimed at strengthening and expanding our opportunities in advanced packaging, advanced nodes and power semiconductors.

隨著我們擴大客戶和服務市場，我們預計新的一年對虹膜膜的需求將進一步成長，這是我們第四季的亮點。我們最近推出了幾款新產品，旨在加強和擴大我們在先進封裝、先進節點和功率半導體方面的機會。

These products are in the process of being proven out at several top five semiconductor manufacturers and leading power manufacturers. We expect incremental revenues from these new products starting later this year and more meaningful revenue in 2026 when these products ramp into higher volume.

這些產品正在幾家排名前五的半導體製造商和領先的電源製造商中進行驗證。我們預計這些新產品將從今年稍後開始帶來增量收入，並在 2026 年隨著這些產品的銷售增加而帶來更可觀的收入。

Now I'll turn the call over to mark to review our financial highlights and provide first quarter guidance.

現在，我將把電話轉給馬克，回顧我們的財務亮點並提供第一季的指導。

Thanks Mike, and Good afternoon everyone as Mike highlighted, we had another strong performance by the on two team wrapping up 2024 exceeding the midpoint for revenue and exceeding the high end of our EPS guidance for Q4, fourth quarter revenue of $264 million increased 5% versus the third quarter and up 21% versus the prior year with fourth quarter EPS increasing 13% sequentially to a [dollar 51] up 42% versus the prior year.

謝謝邁克，大家下午好，正如邁克強調的那樣，我們在兩個團隊的帶領下再次取得了強勁表現，在 2024 年底，收入超過了中點，也超過了我們對第四季度每股收益預期的高端，第四季度收入為 2.64 億美元，環比增長 5%，比上年增長 21%，第四季度每股收益環比增長 13%，至 [51 美元]，比上年增長 42%。

Specialty devices and advanced packaging continue to be the growth driver during 2024 as well as strengthening of advanced nodes exiting Q4 with sequential quarter over quarter growth throughout the year.

專用設備和先進封裝將繼續成為 2024 年的成長動力，同時先進節點也將在第四季加強，全年實現逐季成長。

Before going into this further details on our Q4 performance and our outlook for Q1. I'd first like to quickly highlight the full year financial performance by the team in 2024 we achieved 21% revenue growth, 37% operating income growth, cash from operations and EPS both achieved 43% growth twice the rate of our earnings growth for 2024.

在進一步介紹我們第四季的業績和第一季的展望之前。首先，我想快速強調團隊在 2024 年的全年財務業績，我們實現了 21% 的收入增長、37% 的營業收入增長、經營現金流和每股收益均實現了 43% 的增長，是我們 2024 年盈利增長率的兩倍。

Now shifting back to Q4 and looking at the quarterly revenue by markets, our biggest market remains specialty devices and advanced packaging which increased 5% from Q3 with record quarterly revenue of $170 million and represents 64% of revenue.

現在回到第四季度，看看各市場的季度收入，我們最大的市場仍然是專業設備和先進封裝，較第三季度增長 5%，季度收入創下 1.7 億美元的記錄，佔總收入的 64%。

Advanced nodes which had revenue of $48 million increased 12% over Q3 and represents 18% of revenue, software and services with revenue of $46 million decreased by 4% compared to Q3 representing 18% of revenue.

先進節點營收為4,800萬美元，較第三季成長12%，佔營收的18%；軟體及服務營收為4,600萬美元，較第三季下降4%，佔營收的18%。

As Mike stated, we achieved 55% gross margin for the fourth quarter at the high end of our guidance range of 54% to 55% while achieving 300 basis point improvement since the beginning of the year.

正如麥克所說，我們第四季度的毛利率達到了 55%，處於 54% 至 55% 的預期範圍的高位，同時自年初以來實現了 300 個基點的提升。

As reflected in our GAAP gross margin during the quarter, we incurred merger and acquisition related expenses and restructuring charges relating to the exit and impairment of certain assets. As a result of the acquisitions, we announced in October.

正如本季的 GAAP 毛利率所反映的那樣，我們發生了與某些資產的退出和減損有關的併購相關費用以及重組費用。我們在十月宣布了收購的結果。

Fourth quarter, operating expenses were $68 million at the high end of our guidance range. As we continue to accelerate R&D investments within the quarter, our operating income of $75 million was 29% of revenue for the fourth quarter compared to 28% for Q3.

第四季度，營運費用為 6,800 萬美元，處於我們預期範圍的高點。由於我們在本季持續加快研發投入，我們第四季的營業收入為 7,500 萬美元，佔營收的 29%，而第三季為 28%。

We achieved quarter-over-quarter operating margin improvement throughout 2024 totaling approximately 300 basis point improvement since the start of the year, our net income performance improved 200 basis points to 28% of revenue for Q4 supported from favorable investment income and tax rate within the quarter.

我們在 2024 年實現了季度環比營業利潤率的提高，自年初以來共提高了約 300 個基點，得益於本季度有利的投資收益和稅率的支持，我們的淨收入表現在第四季度提高了 200 個基點，達到收入的 28%。

Now moving to the balance sheet, we ended the fourth quarter with cash and short-term investments of $852 million cash remained relatively flat to Q3 as we executed $25 million of share buybacks at an average price of 159 per share under our existing $200 million authorization. In addition, we finalized and closed the two previously announced acquisitions.

現在轉到資產負債表，我們在第四季度結束時的現金和短期投資為 8.52 億美元，與第三季度基本持平，因為我們在現有的 2 億美元授權範圍內以平均每股 159 美元的價格執行了 2500 萬美元的股票回購。此外，我們也完成並結束了先前宣布的兩項收購。

We achieved operating cash flow of $56 million or 21% of revenue down from previous record levels for Q2 and Q3. Primarily due to the timing of shipments in the quarter inventory ended the quarter at $287 million down $21 million versus Q3 and achieving six quarters of consecutive decline in exiting 2024 below $300 million as projected.

我們實現的營運現金流為 5,600 萬美元，佔營收的 21%，較第二季和第三季的歷史記錄下降。主要是由於本季的出貨時間導致庫存本季末為 2.87 億美元，較第三季下降 2,100 萬美元，並實現了連續六個季度的下降，到 2024 年將低於預計的 3 億美元。

We expect to stay relatively flat for the first quarter and expect to maintain inventory levels at 1.7 to 1.8 turns in line with external benchmarks. Now turning to our outlook for the first quarter, we currently expect revenue for the first quarter to be between $262 million and $274 million.

我們預計第一季庫存將保持相對平穩，並預計庫存水準將維持在 1.7 至 1.8 週轉率，與外部基準一致。現在談談我們對第一季的展望，我們目前預計第一季的營收將在 2.62 億美元至 2.74 億美元之間。

We expect gross margins will be 54% to 56% for operating expenses. We expect to be between $69 million to $72 million for the full year. We expect our effective tax rate to be between 14% to 16%.

我們預計營業費用的毛利率將達到54%至56%。我們預計全年收入將在 6,900 萬美元至 7,200 萬美元之間。我們預計我們的有效稅率在 14% 至 16% 之間。

We expect our diluted share count for the first quarter to be approximately $49.8 million shares. Based upon these assumptions, we anticipate our non-GAAP earnings for the first quarter to be between $1.40 and $1.54 per share.

我們預計第一季的攤薄股份數量約為 4,980 萬股。根據這些假設，我們預計第一季非公認會計準則每股收益將在 1.40 美元至 1.54 美元之間。

And with that, I will turn it back to Mike for additional insights into Q1 further commentary on 2025. Mike?

接下來，我將把話題轉回給 Mike，以便他進一步對 2025 年第一季的評論提出更多見解。麥克風？

Thank you, Mark. Specific to our outlook for the first quarter, we see strong growth in advanced nodes from both logic and memory. We expect dram to see the most significant growth in the first quarter, partially in support of the $69 million VPAs.

謝謝你，馬克。具體到我們對第一季的展望，我們看到邏輯和記憶體方面的先進節點都實現了強勁成長。我們預計，DRAM 將在第一季實現最顯著的成長，部分原因是為了支援 6,900 萬美元的 VPA。

We announced last month, we expect gate all around demand to grow as well even after a very strong fourth quarter. And we also see NAND orders increasing to support expansion and demand for high stack 3D NAND.

我們上個月宣布，即使第四季表現非常強勁，我們預計門控週邊的需求也將成長。我們還看到 NAND 訂單增加以支援擴展和對高堆疊 3D NAND 的需求。

As mentioned earlier in packaging, we see orders picking up for HBM as our customers and market demand becomes clear and they ramp to support the growth in 2.5D logic. We expect these additional tools to be required mid-2025.

正如前面在封裝方面提到的，隨著客戶和市場需求變得清晰，我們看到 HBM 的訂單正在增加，並且他們加強支持 2.5D 邏輯的成長。我們預計這些額外的工具將在 2025 年中期投入使用。

For power We expect the first quarter to see a seasonal dip followed by growth in each of the subsequent quarters. Similar to the pattern we saw in 2024 for the year. We expect total power revenue to exceed the record year in 2024 overall. We continue to see three secular end markets driving our business over the next two years.

對於電力，我們預計第一季將出現季節性下降，隨後每季都會出現成長。與我們在 2024 年看到的模式類似。我們預計 2024 年總電力收入將超過創紀錄的一年。我們將繼續看到三個長期終端市場在未來兩年推動我們的業務。

First, the demand for AI continues to grow at a very high pace. Recently, [TS MC] forecasted that its revenue growth from AI accelerate will grow at a mid 40% CAGR in the next five years.

首先，對人工智慧的需求持續以極高的速度成長。近日，[TS MC]預測未來五年其來自AI加速的營收成長將以40%左右的複合年增長率成長。

Similarly, NVIDIA described the demand for its Blackwell processors as staggering more recently, the US government announced a $500 billion Stargate project over the next four years to build new AI Infrastructure in the US.

同樣，NVIDIA 也表示其 Blackwell 處理器的需求驚人，最近，美國政府宣布未來四年內實施 5,000 億美元的星際之門項目，在美國建造新的人工智慧基礎設施。

New and more efficient AI Deep Sea could proliferate the use of AI and edge devices which could be a catalyst for mobile refresh, increasing demand for advanced packaging logic and memory and specialty devices. Overall, we expect AI to be a multiyear growth driver for us.

全新、更有效率的AI Deep Sea可以激增AI和邊緣設備的使用，從而成為行動更新的催化劑，增加對先進封裝邏輯和記憶體以及專用設備的需求。總體而言，我們預計人工智慧將成為我們多年的成長動力。

The second, secular driver is for gate all around DDR five memory and high stack high stack 3D NAND. This is increasing since these technologies contribute to more powerful and energy efficient system designs to support performance and energy starved AI and enterprise server applications.

第二個世俗的驅動程式是針對全閘極DDR五記憶體和高層高堆疊3D NAND。這一數字正在不斷增長，因為這些技術有助於設計更強大、更節能的系統，以支援效能和能耗較高的人工智慧和企業伺服器應用程式。

Which leads us to our third secular driver. The electrification of everything. In addition to electric vehicles, smart grids and infrastructure, there's an urgent need to reduce power consumption for all the AI infrastructure that is expected to be built out over the coming years.

這引出了我們的第三個長期驅動力。一切電氣化。除了電動車、智慧電網和基礎設施外，未來幾年預計建造的所有人工智慧基礎設施也迫切需要降低電力消耗。

According to studies by various government agencies and consulting firms, our consumption by data center is expected to increase from 4% of US electricity generation today to 7% to 12% by 2030 new technologies such as gallium nitride-based power semiconductors are being adopted because of the benefits and power efficiency density and size, when compared to silicon.

根據各政府機構和顧問公司的研究，到2030年，我們資料中心的耗電量預計將從目前美國發電量的4%增至7%至12%，與矽相比，基於氮化鎵的功率半導體等新技術因其優勢以及功率效率、密度和尺寸而被採用。

In conclusion, we believe our products today are well positioned to support the demands from our leading customers who through their process innovations are enabling these new markets. We expect our recently announced products will extend our ability to serve our customers as they invest in the new innovations required for the future.

總之，我們相信我們今天的產品能夠很好地滿足我們主要客戶的需求，他們透過工藝創新推動這些新市場的發展。我們期望，我們最近發布的產品將增強我們為客戶服務的能力，因為他們將投資於未來所需的新創新。

And that concludes our prepared remarks. Rachel, please open the call for questions from our covering analysts.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。Rachel，請開始我們的首席分析師的提問環節。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions).

謝謝。（操作員指令）。

We will take our first question from Matthew Prisco with Cantor Fitzgerald.

我們將從 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 Matthew Prisco 那裡回答第一個問題。

Hey guys, thanks for taking the question. I guess we'll start off with HBM. Given the pickup in demand, you're seeing there any more color you can on that front and then just maybe given the robust growth in '24 based on the industry capacity.

嘿夥計們，謝謝你們回答這個問題。我想我們將從 HBM 開始。鑑於需求的回升，您會看到這方面有更多細節，也許考慮到基於行業產能的 24 年強勁增長。

A how do you think about growth potential for on to off that higher level in 2025? Thanks.

您認為 2025 年達到更高水準的成長潛力如何？謝謝。

So, on the HBM front. I think it's, playing out largely as we described in the last quarter. If we look at the amount of capacity HBM, capacity required to support the co growth, we weren't seeing the level of expansions we expected.

因此，在 HBM 方面。我認為，其發展情況與我們上個季度描述的情況大致相同。如果我們看一下 HBM 的容量，即支持共同成長所需的容量，我們並沒有看到預期的擴張程度。

We sort of surmised that this was because we're and custom, our customers were waiting for allocations from the essentially the big driver, NVIDIA. As that's become clear, we're starting to see those customers expand and start to place orders and work with us on timing of shipments, et cetera for the mid to second half year.

我們推測這是因為我們是客製化的，我們的客戶正在等待來自本質上最大的驅動力 NVIDIA 的分配。隨著這一點變得明朗，我們開始看到這些客戶不斷擴張並開始下訂單，並與我們合作確定發貨時間等等，為期半年。

I think one of the one of the important points here though, to try and understand the HBM demand is how much capacity was added in 2024 we estimate about 230,000 wafer starts per month was added in 2024. Roughly half of that was required by the market.

我認為這裡的一個重要點是，為了嘗試了解 HBM 的需求，我們要了解 2024 年增加了多少產能，我們估計 2024 年每月將增加約 23 萬片晶圓。其中約一半是市場所需。

So, what we're seeing right now is a little over, that half being added, which implies the market is doubling in order to meet the demand of the co and we see actually our tax rates at the same level or even increasing as we see more adoption of our front-end metrology equipment in this market.

所以，我們現在看到的是略多一點，增加了一半，這意味著市場正在翻倍以滿足公司的需求，而且我們實際上看到我們的稅率保持在同一水平甚至增加，因為我們看到這個市場越來越多地採用我們的前端計量設備。

Helpful. Thank you. And then, and then for the follow up, maybe you can help us think through the moving parts for advanced node into 2025 given that gate all around strength, the dra growth and early signs of life. And man, would it be realistic to kind of return back to those prior peak levels? [You saw XY MC C?]

很有幫助。謝謝。然後，然後對於後續問題，也許您可以幫助我們思考 2025 年先進節點的移動部件，考慮到門控的全方位強度、dra 增長和早期生命跡象。那麼，回到之前的巔峰水平現實嗎？[你看到 XY MC C 了嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

We’re approaching it. So, we're I don't think we're quite going to get to the prior peak levels, but we're definitely getting within the shooting range.

我們正在接近它。因此，我認為我們不會達到之前的峰值水平，但我們肯定會進入射程範圍內。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Craig Ellis with B Riley Securities.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 B Riley Securities 的 Craig Ellis。

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. And my congratulations to you and the team on the robust execution in 2024. I wanted to start with a high-level question. So, the business starts the year with strength, really in all three businesses and, and some digestion and specialty, but then sequential growth.

是的，感謝您回答這個問題。我祝賀您和團隊在 2024 年取得了強勁執行力。我想從一個高層次的問題開始。因此，公司在年初就表現出強勁勢頭，實際上三大業務都表現出色，並且還具備一定的消化能力和專業性，隨後實現了連續增長。

As you look at that and as you factor in the benefit from new products, and you mentioned that may be more second half weighted, how do you think on to will stack up versus what some larger companies are saying might be 5% year-on-year, industry growth.

當您考慮到這一點並將新產品帶來的好處考慮在內時，並且您提到這可能會更多地考慮下半年，您認為與一些大公司所說的 5% 的同比增長相比，這一數字會如何？

Well, first, the new products will have a kind of an incremental effect on this year and a much larger effect on next year. So take, taking those to the side, I think those are, kind of exciting drivers for our future.

首先，新產品對今年會產生一種增量效應，對明年的影響會更大。所以，拋開這些不談，我認為它們是我們未來令人興奮的驅動力。

We've based on the position we've articulated in our prepared remarks in the growth in the secular growth drivers we're aligned with, we would expect to continue to outperform, the WFE numbers that have been talked about. Certainly, above 5% well, about 5%.

根據我們在準備好的評論中闡明的立場，我們所遵循的長期成長動力的成長預計將繼續優於已經談到的 WFE 數字。當然，高於5%，大約是5%。

Well above. Okay, I'll get out the decoder ring and see if that's 300 basis points or 500 basis points or better. And in any color. They're welcome, Mark. I'll follow up with a question from you. So, I really like the implications of what Mike said earlier about advanced nodes continuing to rise and becoming a more material part of revenue because that's key to continued gross margin expansion.

遠高於。好的，我將取出解碼器環並查看它是否是 300 個基點、500 個基點或更高。並且有任意顏色。不客氣，馬克。我將跟進您的問題。因此，我非常喜歡 Mike 之前所說的關於先進節點持續上升並成為收入中更重要的一部分的含義，因為這是毛利率持續擴大的關鍵。

I think through the year last year, we were up about 100 basis points, not looking for specific guidance, but as you look through calendar '25 and the potential mix of business and your ongoing cost reduction efforts. Can you give us any color on how much gross margin expansion is possible? And any key puts and takes would be helpful? Thank you.

我認為去年全年我們的利潤上漲了約 100 個基點，我們並不尋求具體的指導，但當你回顧 25 年日曆以及潛在的業務組合和你正在進行的成本削減努力時，就會發現這一點。您能否告訴我們毛利率可能增加多少？有什麼關鍵要點會有幫助嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. No, thanks Craig for the question gross margins. I mean, certainly our goal is, as we did in 2024 quarter-over-quarter improvement. Certainly, the mix of advanced nodes is going to help propel that and accelerate that. You know, our goal is to continue to take 55% as the baseline and, move that forward throughout the year.

是的。不，感謝 Craig 提出有關毛利率的問題。我的意思是，我們的目標當然是，正如我們在 2024 年所做的那樣，實現季度環比改善。當然，先進節點的混合將有助於推動和加速這一進程。你知道，我們的目標是繼續以 55% 為基準，並在全年推動這一目標的實現。

I think the mix helps as I said, but also the effort of the team to continue to work with the suppliers and, execute, efficiencies within our, plant network. So, all that together we should, as Mike said in his remarks and I said, we should see improvement.

我認為，正如我所說的，這種組合很有幫助，但團隊的努力也有助於繼續與供應商合作，並在我們的工廠網路內提高效率。所以，正如麥克在他的演講中所說，我們應該看到進步。

You know, I won't give specific ranges but, as we said, quarter over quarter improvement, 50 basis points or more is the goal?

你知道，我不會給出具體的範圍，但正如我們所說，目標是實現季度環比改善 50 個基點或更多？

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Charles Shi with Needham.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Needham 的 Charles Shi。

Yeah, good evening. Can you hear me?

是的，晚上好。你聽得到我嗎？

Great, So Mike, we're at the beginning of the year. Obviously, you talk about a few moving parts. This year paid all around something new I heard from you this time was the end. Didn't hear you a couple of months ago about the end AI packing, HBM.

太好了，麥克，我們現在正處於年初。顯然，您談論的是一些活動部件。今年付出的一切都新鮮了我從你那裡聽到的這次是結束了。幾個月前沒有聽到您關於結​​束 AI 包裝的消息，HBM。

What's your current visibility? I mean, if I look at everything all together for your overall business through the rest of the year, what is your visibility right now?

您目前的知名度如何？我的意思是，如果我綜合考慮您今年剩餘時間的整體業務狀況，您目前的狀況如何？

And based on the order based on the pipeline, what's your expectation for, for the for the growth? Let's say the profile of the year for your overall business. You, I mean, give us as much color as possible. Go going into the outer quarters. Thanks.

根據管道訂單，您對成長有何期望？假設您今年的整體業務概況。我的意思是，你給我們盡可能多的色彩。前往外圍區域。謝謝。

Yeah. Well, as you know, there's a lot of moving parts in the outer quarters are going to be the least visible for us. And that's traditional semiconductor business so that nothing's changed there. I would say directionally, what we're seeing is continued investments in those areas that I mentioned.

是的。嗯，如你所知，外部區域有很多活動部件，對我們來說這些部件是最不明顯的。這是傳統的半導體業務，因此沒有任何改變。我想說，從方向上看，我們看到的是對我提到的那些領域的持續投資。

So certainly, the advanced nodes and frankly, it is fairly healthy across the board. So, gate all around DRAM especially, I think that'll lead the growth. And then three demand is also growing pretty nicely from again from a bottom but, but pretty healthy compared to prior years through and except for 2022.

因此可以肯定的是，高階節點和坦白說，整體而言相當健康。因此，特別是圍繞 DRAM 的閘極，我認為這將引領成長。然後，三種需求也從底部再次呈現良好的成長勢頭，但與前幾年相比（2022 年除外）仍然相當健康。

So that's, a directional on the AI packaging, there's quite a bit going on there. You see lots of gyrations, there's concerns or let's say questions around tariffs and chip tariffs and what's that going to do to markets? And so, I think that's you know, a handicap that I'm not willing to place bets on, but the general trend, the general demand, the share we have and the expanding position we have with growing our metrology applications in there.

所以，這是 AI 包裝的一個方向，那裡有很多事情要做。您會看到很多波動，人們對關稅和晶片關稅存在擔憂或疑問，這會對市場產生什麼影響？所以，我認為，這是我不願意下注的障礙，但總體趨勢、總體需求、我們所擁有的份額以及隨著我們在其中不斷增長的計量應用而不斷擴大的地位都是如此。

New applications for our sensors like the sub surface defect inspection capability. All that adds to our, let's say, opportunities to continue to outperform the overall market as we look ahead to 2025.

我們的感測器的新應用，如亞表面缺陷檢測能力。所有這些都為我們在 2025 年繼續超越整體市場提供了機會。

So maybe a quick follow up. Mike, you gave some of your own internal market research numbers on HBM. You, I think you said that $230,000 capacity for HBM was added in 2024, and the half was required by the market. I believe you said something a little bit more forward-looking about '25.

因此可能需要快速跟進。麥克，你在 HBM 上給了一些你自己的內部市場研究數據。你，我記得你說的是2024年增加了23萬美元的HBM產能，其中一半是市場所需的。我相信您對 25 年說了一些更具前瞻性的話。

Maybe it's not, but what's your expectation for '25? How much capacity you think will be needed based on your, your current view on how much order or how much in the pipeline you're seeing right now.

可能不是，但是您對 25 年有什麼期望呢？根據您目前對訂單量或目前看到的管道量的看法，您認為需要多少產能。

Yeah. So, if you take the $230,000 you say if about half wasn't, leveraged or used, then, then that implies 100 and 15,000, roughly 115,000 wafer starts were required to match last year's co-op capacity. Roughly if you're doubling that, then you're doubling the other. And so, you're essentially seeing, we're essentially seeing the 115 or more 1,000 wafer starts being added in 2025 which matches the demand profile that we would expect.

是的。因此，如果您拿出 230,000 美元，如果其中大約一半沒有被利用或使用，那麼就意味著需要 100 和 15,000，大約 115,000 個晶圓才能與去年的合作產能相匹配。大致來說，如果你將這個數字翻倍，那麼另一個數字也會翻倍。因此，您基本上可以看到，我們基本上看到 2025 年將增加 115 個或更多的 1,000 片晶圓，這與我們預期的需求情況相符。

Thank you. Your next question.

謝謝。您的下一個問題。

Go ahead. Sorry.

前進。對不起。

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Edward Yang with Oppenheimer & Company.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的楊德昌。

Hi Thanks Mike and congrats on the AI packaging revenue growth. 180% over 2023. Was that above your target? I thought in your January presentation you had something along lines of 160%.

嗨，謝謝 Mike，並祝賀 AI 包裝收入成長。 2023 年將成長 180%。這是否超出了你的目標？我認為您在一月份的演講中已經提到了大約 160% 的數字。

It might have been the I don't recall specifically.

可能是我不記得具體情況了。

Yeah, so I might have said over 160% and then we ended up at 180%.

是的，我可能說的是超過 160%，但最終我們達到了 180%。

Okay. And can you size the magnitude of the revenue pick up? You see in demand for, the incremental? HBM. Doesn't seem like it's in the first quarter guide, as you mentioned, it's more mid to second half, '25.

好的。您能估算一下收入成長的幅度嗎？您認為需求量有增量嗎？人體模型。正如您所說，它似乎不在第一季的指南中，而是在'25 年中期到下半年。

Yeah, that's correct. And I think that's still being worked out. Meaning I think there's some upside to what we're seeing. The customers are talking to us about their, their needs, both for inspection and some growing metrology needs. We're also looking at some of the potential for 3D as well. So that's, all going to be probably maybe some little bit in Q2, but mostly in the second half.

是的，正確。我認為這個問題仍在解決中。意思是，我認為我們所看到的事情有一些積極的一面。客戶正在與我們討論他們的需求，包括檢查需求和一些不斷增長的計量需求。我們也在研究 3D 的一些潛力。因此，這一切可能都會在第二季度有所體現，但主要體現在下半年。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Brian Chin with Stifel.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Hi there. Thanks, for making us ask a few questions. So, we get questions a lot about whether process control intensity for HBM will decline. It's been pretty high these early phases. I do understand that thinking, but I think what we hear however, is that yields are getting more challenging when you stack 12 [die] or you move to HBM four.

你好呀。謝謝，您讓我們問了幾個問題。因此，我們常問到 HBM 的製程控制強度是否會下降。早期階段這一比例已經相當高了。我確實理解這種想法，但我認為我們聽到的是，當你堆疊 12 個 [晶片] 或轉移到 HBM 4 時，產量會變得更具挑戰性。

So, are you actually seeing process control intensity really sustaining or maybe even increasing some of this same expansion? Is that also some of what you know, 12 [high die] HBM four is that part of what maybe is driving some of the upward thinking on the HBM demand profile into mid-year, second half.

那麼，您是否實際看到製程控制強度確實維持了甚至增加了相同的擴展？這也是您所知道的一些情況嗎？

Yeah, I think you're exactly right. I do believe that process control intensity is increasing, and I think it's going to continue to increase. Not just because as you're stacking the risk of yield loss for you know, the final layer is going to cost significantly more but also the complexity of shrinking the interconnects and more dense interconnects means the interfaces between the interconnects is more critical.

是的，我認為你完全正確。我確實相信過程控制強度正在增加，而且我認為它會繼續增加。這不僅是因為當您堆積產量損失的風險時，您知道，最後一層的成本將大大增加，而且縮小互連和更密集的互連的複雜性意味著互連之間的介面更加關鍵。

And that's, that's going to be a very a new set up new challenges for process control that, some of our echo scan and some of our new products, the 3DI are designed to address.

而這將對製程控制提出全新的挑戰，我們的一些迴聲掃描和一些新產品 3DI 就是為解決這個問題而設計的。

Great. And then maybe I think when I eyeballed your January Investor slide deck, it, kind of just eyeballing. It suggests maybe you have around 60% share of existing AI packaging SAM. And then on top of that, you're adding 300 million incremental SAM.

偉大的。然後也許我認為，當我瀏覽您一月份的投資者幻燈片時，它只是瀏覽而已。這表示您可能擁有現有 AI 包裝 SAM 約 60% 的份額。然後在此基礎上，您又增加了 3 億個增量 SAM。

It with some of those new products like 3D is, as you just mentioned, I guess what are you targeting for that in terms of share for that new $300 million of incremental SAM through 2026? And do you also think you'll retain kind of that 60% share on the existing SAM.

正如您剛才提到的，對於像 3D 這樣的一些新產品，我猜您到 2026 年對新的 3 億美元增量 SAM 的份額目標是什麼？您是否也認為您將保留現有 SAM 的 60% 份額？

You know, our intention is of course to grow our share, so not just maintain and of course our competitors intend to take. So that, that that's the nature of the beast on the incremental.

你知道，我們的目的當然是擴大我們的份額，而不僅僅是維持份額，當然我們的競爭對手也打算奪走我們的份額。所以，這就是增量的本質。

And, and I think if anything the competition is creating an opportunity for us to accelerate some of our road maps and, and really get some new products released sooner to market than, than we had anticipated, which is also exciting for the team and happening now.

而且，我認為，如果競爭為我們創造了機會，讓我們能夠加速我們的一些路線圖，並真正比我們預期的更快地將一些新產品推向市場，這對團隊來說也是令人興奮的，而且現在正在發生。

But on the incremental SAM, that's a good question. In the case of echo scan there, we don't really see an alternative if you want to measure voids one micron below in atmosphere or without having the risk of additional yield loss due to immersion.

但對於增量式 SAM，這是一個好問題。就迴聲掃描而言，如果您想測量大氣中低於一微米的空隙，或者不冒因浸入而造成額外產量損失的風險，我們實際上看不到其他選擇。

And you know, immersing these, these samples, we think this is one of the only technologies. So, we would be targeting a very high percentage share of that SAM on the 3D bump. That's a different question. There's a very embedded competitor there.

你知道，浸泡這些樣本，我們認為這是唯一的技術之一。因此，我們的目標是在 3D 凸起上佔據 SAM 的極高百分比份額。這是另外一個問題。那裡有一個根深蒂固的競爭對手。

Strong incumbent, then we'll see. So, any incremental share gain there could be viewed positively. And you know, depending on where the bump technology goes as they get smaller and denser, the strength of our 3DI technology becomes greater and we think that then we should have a greater share, greater entitlement.

強大的在位者，我們拭目以待。因此，任何增量份額的成長都將被視為正面的。你知道，隨著凸塊技術的發展，它們變得越來越小，越來越密集，我們的 3DI 技術的強度也變得越來越大，我們認為，我們應該擁有更大的份額，更大的權利。

Thank you. Your next question comes from Vedvati Shrotre with Evercore.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Vedvati Shrotre。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. The first one I had, you know, you provided a good amount of color on the HBM ramps. One of the things that came from TSMC earnings was the big increase in CapEx and it's mostly driven by a big increase in the spending towards the advanced packaging pieces of the of the advanced packaging capacity expansion.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我有的第一個，你知道，你在 HBM 坡道上提供了大量的顏色。台積電獲利的一個亮點是其資本支出大幅增加，這主要得益於對先進封裝產能擴張中先進封裝部分支出的大幅增加。

So, if I if I think about TSMC, advanced packaging cap expense doubling into 2025 does, how, how should I think about the linear linearity to your revenue growth from the 2.5D integration point of view?

那麼，如果我考慮台積電，到 2025 年先進封裝費用將翻倍，那麼從 2.5D 整合的角度來看，我應該如何看待收入成長的線性關係？

Yeah, I don't have, they, so generally speaking, I'll just answer, generally speaking, if someone's going to double capacity, they're going to bring in more of the process control, it'll be more front loaded in order to use the process control to qualify the equipment as it's coming online and then monitor the processes as well.

是的，我沒有，所以一般來說，我只會回答，一般來說，如果有人要將產能翻倍，他們就會引入更多的過程控制，它將更加前期投入，以便使用過程控制來確認設備上線時的質量，然後同時監控過程。

So that's just the general nature of the process control. I would expect that to be the same for you know, the co-loss as you described it, the 2.5 logic packaging. And I think that's what we're seeing in our, in our forecast as well.

這只是過程控制的一般性質。我希望這與您描述的共同損失（2.5 邏輯封裝）是一樣的。我認為這也是我們在預測中看到的情況。

That the reason I hesitate is because we're also seeing new opportunities. So, there's new applications where, we're working on with customers that are being qualified, that could change that, that trajectory as we, as those applications come online, right?

我猶豫的原因是因為我們也看到了新的機會。所以，我們正在與合格的客戶合作開發新的應用程序，隨著這些應用程式上線，這可能會改變這一軌跡，對嗎？

They're new. So, they haven't been, in process in previous ramps which goes to, Brian's increasing capital intensity. We're seeing it across the board, an increase in process control, capital intensity.

它們是新的。因此，在先前的升級過程中，他們並沒有提高 Brian 的資本密集度。我們全面看到了這個現象，即流程控制和資本密集度的提升。

Got it and, and just to follow up on that, does your offering change drastically with like the COL versus cost kind of lines? how does that impact your intensity?

明白了，並且只是為了跟進一下，您的產品是否會根據 COL 與成本線發生巨大變化？這對你的強度有什麼影響？

Not too much. We don't see any significant differences.

不算太多。我們沒有發現任何顯著的差異。

Thank you. Your next question comes from David Duley with Steelhead Securities.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自 Steelhead Securities 的 David Duley。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you might be able to help us understand a couple of things first as far as the new product contribution in 2025.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想知道您是否可以先幫助我們了解有關 2025 年新產品貢獻的一些事情。

But what can we expect? I think from, the void detection, the 3D bump there might be a couple other ones maybe just help us understand what the contribution might be in calendar 2025. And then could you just elaborate a little bit more on the lithography business?

但我們能期待什麼呢？我認為，從空洞檢測、3D 凸起來看，可能還有其他一些可能有助於我們了解 2025 年曆的貢獻。那麼能否進一步詳細闡述光刻業務呢？

And you talked about glass panel adoption? I was just wondering if you could give us some more details there. Thank you.

您談到了玻璃面板的採用嗎？我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多細節。謝謝。

Okay. So, what I mentioned earlier is that the new product adoption we had incremental revenues Previously I talked about the Prima scan being at least $20 million in revenue for 2025. We'd expect some incremental additional revenue.

好的。所以，我之前提到的是，新產品的採用為我們帶來了增量收入，之前我說過 Prima 掃描到 2025 年的收入至少為 2000 萬美元。我們期望有一些額外的收入。

If you know, if we ship an echo scan, we'd hope to close that in the, in the calendar year, we'd hope to close maybe one other one. So, you're talking about incremental tool orders. So, not huge in the grand scheme of things, but those qualifications mean successful application and tool of record positions established for the next ramps which would be expected in and most likely 2026.

如果你知道，如果我們發送迴聲掃描，我們希望在年內完成它，我們希望也許完成另一個。所以，您談論的是增量工具訂單。因此，從總體上看，這並不是什麼大事，但這些資格意味著成功的申請和為預計在 2026 年最有可能的下一個坡道建立的記錄工具位置。

So I think that's you know, that's where we really see the benefit from the new products. Going to lit though. The, what we're seeing is a fairly significant increase in the application studies coming out of our, Pace Lab.

所以我認為，這就是我們真正看到新產品的好處。但還是要點燃。我們看到，來自我們的 Pace Lab 的應用研究數量顯著增加。

So, the work we're doing with our new HRP stepper that's, that's being qualified or, or let's say running demos down in the Pace Lab. We also have a customer that has a hybrid tool. I believe we shipped it 6 months ago.

所以，我們正在用新的 HRP 步進機進行工作，即在 Pace Lab 中進行鑑定或運行演示。我們還有一位擁有混合工具的客戶。我相信我們六個月前就發貨了。

That's been running really well and they're starting to qualify customers and hopefully we'll start to see some ramp additional orders from them, but most likely for ramping and delivery in early '26. And then we're, talking to several customers about tools and qualifications later in this year and into early '26.

一切進展順利，他們開始獲得客戶的認可，希望我們能夠看到他們增加一些訂單，但最有可能在 26 年初增加產量並交付。然後，我們將在今年稍後和 26 年初與幾位客戶討論工具和資格問題。

So, the panel market it's still I'd say in its infancy, but definitely growing and we're seeing more and more customers engaged in defining their road maps to include glass or panel processing.

所以，我認為面板市場仍處於起步階段，但肯定在成長，我們看到越來越多的客戶參與定義他們的路線圖，包括玻璃或面板加工。

Thank you. We will take our next question from Mark Miller with Benchmark company.

謝謝。下一個問題我們將由 Benchmark 公司的 Mark Miller 來回答。

Congrats on another great quarter. You mentioned that you were seeing some increase in the NAND. Was that a surprise? And what are your expectations for NAND? I know, research had a very strong increase in NAND shipments. I just wonder what you're, thinking about NAND this year.

恭喜您又度過了一個出色的季度。您提到您看到 NAND 有所增加。這令人驚訝嗎？您對NAND的期望是什麼？我知道，研究顯示 NAND 出貨量有非常強勁的成長。我只是想知道您對今年的 NAND 有何看法。

Yeah, I'd say it was a bit of a surprise, -- we've seen some increases, but they were very, small. So, as a percentage basis. But, you know, the base was so small.

是的，我想說這有點令人驚訝——我們看到了一些成長，但幅度非常小。因此，以百分比為基礎。但你知道，基數太小了。

But now it's becoming a more meaningful part of, 2025. Largely we're seeing the, at least 22 primary customers ramping to support high stack 3D demand applications. And that's, driving a lot of the upside we see in 3D demand market.

但現在它正成為 2025 年更有意義的一部分。我們看到，至少有 22 個主要客戶正在加緊支援高堆疊 3D 需求應用程式。這就是我們看到的 3D 需求市場上漲的很大一部分原因。

Okay. You saw a large increase in R&D expenses. Will that continue in 2025? Sequentially, it was a large increase.

好的。您發現研發費用大幅增加。2025 年這種情況還會持續嗎？因此，這是一個很大的成長。

Yeah, I mean, we're, continuing to look at the portfolio and as Mike said, we do have the new products launching, but there's certainly, expenses and certain other, areas where we'll continue to, place dollars to continue to drive the portfolio road maps with the customers.

是的，我的意思是，我們正在繼續審視產品組合，正如麥克所說，我們確實推出了新產品，但肯定還有費用和其他某些領域，我們將繼續投入資金，繼續與客戶一起推動產品組合路線圖。

The customers are driving a much higher pace of innovation requirement from us. As I mentioned, the process control intensity in the applications challenges they're having are requiring us to pull in road maps for inspection for even for lithography for metrology as well.

客戶對我們提出越來越高的創新要求。正如我所提到的，他們在應用挑戰中面臨的過程控制強度要求我們引入路線圖進行檢查，甚至包括用於計量的光刻。

So yeah, I don't think that there's going to be a significant increase in 2025 but of course, there is incremental increase.

所以是的，我認為 2025 年不會有顯著成長，但當然會有漸進式成長。

Thank you Thus, conclude today's question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Sidney Ho for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我想請 Sidney Ho 作補充發言或做結束語。

Thank you. We will be participating in a number of investor conferences throughout the quarter. We look forward to seeing many of you there.

謝謝。整個季度我們將參加多場投資者會議。我們期待在那裡見到你們。

A replay of the call today will be available on our website at approximately 7:30, Eastern Time, this evening. We'd like to thank you for your continued interest in onto innovation Rachel. Please include this call.

今天的電話會議重播將於今晚東部時間大約 7:30 在我們的網站上提供。我們感謝您對 Rachel 的創新持續關注。請附上此通話。

Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。