Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Onto Innovation third-quarter earnings release conference call. Today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Onto Innovation 第三季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄影。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Sidney Ho. Please go ahead.

此時，我謹將會議交給何鴻燊先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Rachel, and good afternoon, everyone. Onto Innovation issued its 2025 third-quarter financial results this afternoon shortly after the market close. If you did not receive a copy of the release, please refer to the company's website where a copy of the release is posted. Joining us on the call today are Mike Plisinski, Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Roberts, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，瑞秋，大家午安。Onto Innovation於今天下午股市收盤後不久發布了2025年第三季財務業績。如果您沒有收到新聞稿副本，請造訪本公司網站查看新聞稿副本。今天參加電話會議的有執行長麥克·普利辛斯基和財務長布萊恩·羅伯茨。

I'd like to remind you that the statements made by management on this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Those statements are subject to a range of changes, risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially. For more information regarding the risk factors that may impact Onto Innovation's results, I would encourage you to review our earnings release and our SEC filings. Onto Innovation does not undertake the obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

我想提醒各位，管理階層在本次電話會議上所作的陳述將包含聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明會受到各種變化、風險和不確定因素的影響，導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。有關可能影響 Onto Innovation 業績的風險因素的更多信息，我建議您查閱我們的盈利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。Onto Innovation 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務。

Today's discussion of financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. As a reminder, a detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings release.

除非另有說明，今天對財務業績的討論將以非GAAP財務報表為基礎。提醒各位，今天的盈利報告中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。

Let me now turn the call over to our CEO, Mike Plisinski. Mike?

現在我把電話交給我們的執行長麥克‧普利辛斯基。麥克風？

Thank you, Sidney. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our call today. Underpinning our financial results, which came in ahead of the midpoint of our guidance ranges, the Onto Innovation team made excellent progress with our strategic initiatives, including new product adoption, advancing our offshoring activities, and preparing for the close and successful integration of the Semilab transaction. We expect each of these efforts will enhance our leadership position in the exciting advanced-packaging and advanced-nodes markets and strengthen our outlook for growth in 2026.

謝謝你，西德尼。各位下午好，感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。Onto Innovation 團隊在策略性舉措方面取得了卓越的進展，包括新產品推廣、推進離岸業務以及為完成 Semilab 交易的順利整合做好準備，這些舉措支撐了我們的財務業績，使我們的業績超過了預期範圍的中點。我們預計這些努力將增強我們在充滿活力的先進封裝和先進節點市場的領先地位，並增強我們對 2026 年成長的預期。

Market growth in 2026 is likely to include increased investments in advanced packaging to support the strong demand for AI compute. So we are very pleased to announce that our 3Di technology has successfully completed the full-qualification process at not one but two high-bandwidth memory customers in the quarter. Our 3Di technology demonstrated superior performance on smaller denser 3D interconnects, critical for next-generation devices. Following these successful qualifications, we started discussions for volume orders with integrated 3Di and subsurface defect inspection to support next-generation HBM devices.

2026 年的市場成長可能包括對先進封裝技術的加大投資，以滿足對人工智慧運算的強勁需求。因此我們非常高興地宣布，我們的 3Di 技術在本季已成功完成兩家高頻寬記憶體客戶的全面認證流程。我們的 3Di 技術在更小、更密集的 3D 互連方面表現出優異的性能，這對於下一代設備至關重要。在成功獲得這些資格後，我們開始討論批量訂單，這些訂單將整合 3Di 和亞表面缺陷檢測，以支援下一代 HBM 設備。

Another win for the 3Di in the quarter was an order from a leading OSAT to support 2.5D applications for AI packaging. To support advanced 2D inspection applications, the launch of our next-generation Dragonfly system is progressing well with the first shipment expected in a few weeks, followed by additional systems in December. After last quarter's optical performance validation by a key customer, we have since completed successful in-house wafer studies for high-bandwidth memory and hybrid bonding applications leading to several more evaluation shipments to customers in the first quarter. In fact, the success of these demos has several customers adding the new Dragonfly to preliminary discussions on volume needs for 2026.

本季 3Di 的另一項勝利是來自一家領先的 OSAT 公司的訂單，為其提供 AI 封裝的 2.5D 應用支援。為了支援先進的 2D 檢測應用，我們的下一代 Dragonfly 系統的推出進展順利，預計幾週後將首次發貨，隨後在 12 月也將推出更多系統。繼上季度一位重要客戶對我們的光學性能進行驗證之後，我們已成功完成了針對高頻寬記憶體和混合鍵合應用的內部晶圓研究，並在第一季度向客戶交付了更多評估樣品。事實上，這些演示的成功讓一些客戶在 2026 年的批量需求初步討論中加入了新的 Dragonfly 產品。

Turning to advanced nodes. We remain on track to deliver a record year in advanced node revenue outside of China. Contributing to this performance is the growing adoption of our Iris films and integrated metrology platforms, both on track to set records for the year.

轉向高階節點。我們仍有望在中國以外的地區實現先進節點收入創紀錄的一年。促成這一業績的原因在於我們的 Iris 薄膜和整合計量平台的日益普及，這兩款產品都有望在今年創下紀錄。

Looking at the markets broadly, recent headlines continue to reflect strong and sustained demand for AI and high-performance compute. NVIDIA projects that global AI infrastructure investments could reach $3 billion to $4 trillion by the end of the decade, potentially reshaping the semiconductor supply chain. At the core of this evolution, our new memory and logic transistors and packaging architecture supporting chiplets for logic, 3D stacking for memory, and nascent co-package optics, all designed to increase device performance while lowering power consumption.

從整體市場來看，近期的新聞頭條繼續反映出市場對人工智慧和高效能運算的強勁且持續的需求。英偉達預測，到本十年末，全球人工智慧基礎設施投資可能達到 30 億至 4 兆美元，這可能會重塑半導體供應鏈。這項演進的核心是我們全新的記憶體和邏輯電晶體以及支援邏輯晶片的封裝架構、用於記憶體的 3D 堆疊以及新興的共封裝光學元件，所有這些都旨在提高裝置性能，同時降低功耗。

Onto Innovation continues to play a pivotal role by working closely with our customers across this broad value chain to develop and deliver the process control solutions required to support this AI era. In the immediate term, we expect revenue growth of approximately 18% at the midpoint of our Q4 guidance range. The greatest contributor to this growth is from 2.5D packaging customers where we expect revenue to nearly double from the third quarter, driven by strong Dragonfly system demand.

Onto Innovation 繼續發揮關鍵作用，與整個價值鏈上的客戶緊密合作，開發和提供支援人工智慧時代所需的流程控制解決方案。短期內，我們預期第四季營收成長約為 18%，這是我們第四季業績指引範圍的中位數。推動這一成長的最大貢獻者是 2.5D 封裝客戶，我們預計在 Dragonfly 系統強勁需求的推動下，第三季的營收將幾乎翻倍。

We expect advanced nodes revenue will also improve with increases in DRAM and logic spending. While discussions for capacity needs in 2026 are in early stages, our packaging customers are indicating the potential need for as much as 20% more tools to support expansions and new applications for our 2D subsurface and 3Di inspection technologies. While quarterly performance may show variation, we expect sequential growth in the first half of next year with more meaningful growth expected in the second half of 2026, driven by increased contributions from new products and potential capacity expansions.

我們預計隨著DRAM和邏輯元件支出的增加，先進節點的收入也將提高。雖然對 2026 年產能需求的討論還處於早期階段，但我們的包裝客戶表示，可能需要增加多達 20% 的工具，以支援我們的 2D 表面下和 3Di 檢測技術的擴展和新應用。儘管季度業績可能會有所波動，但我們預計明年上半年將實現環比增長，並在 2026 年下半年實現更顯著的增長，這主要得益於新產品貢獻的增加和潛在的產能擴張。

Supporting this growth is our aggressive ramp of our extended factories in Asia, and I am pleased to report in the third quarter, we successfully shipped over 30% of third-quarter tools from these factories. Thanks to the incredible efforts of our operations team and supply chain partners, we are now on pace to be capable of shipping over 60% of our production demand from our international locations by the end of the first quarter of 2026. These efforts will enhance our competitive position, mitigate tariff impacts, provide greater manufacturing flexibility, and allow us to expand gross margins in 2026.

為了支持這一成長，我們積極擴大了在亞洲的工廠產能。我很高興地報告，第三季度，我們成功地從這些工廠發貨了第三季度所需工具的 30% 以上。由於我們營運團隊和供應鏈合作夥伴的不懈努力，我們現在預計在 2026 年第一季末從我們的國際生產基地發貨超過 60% 的生產需求。這些努力將增強我們的競爭地位，減輕關稅影響，提供更大的生產彈性，並使我們能夠在 2026 年擴大毛利率。

Finally, a brief update on our pending acquisition of three complementary product lines from Semilab. In October, in response to a second request letter from the Department of Justice, we amended the transaction to exclude a relatively small product line. We currently expect that the transaction will close in the coming weeks and be accretive to both revenue and earnings in 2026.

最後，簡單介紹一下我們即將收購 Semilab 的三條互補產品線的最新進展。10 月，應司法部第二封要求信函，我們修改了交易，排除了一條相對較小的產品線。我們目前預計該交易將在未來幾週內完成，並將在 2026 年增加收入和利潤。

And with that, let me turn the call to Brian to review our financial highlights and provide fourth-quarter guidance. Brian?

接下來，我將把電話交給布萊恩，讓他回顧我們的財務亮點並提供第四季度業績展望。布萊恩？

Thanks, Mike. Good afternoon, everyone. Third-quarter performance met or exceeded expectations across key financial metrics as we work to improve our forecasting processes and implement more disciplined spending controls.

謝謝你，麥克。大家下午好。第三季業績在關鍵財務指標方面達到或超過預期，同時我們努力改善預測流程並實施更嚴格的支出控制。

Revenue for the quarter was slightly ahead of the midpoint of our previous guidance range at $218.2 million. Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 54% and includes approximately a 1 percentage point impact related to tariffs. Operating margins of 21.1% exceeded the top end of our guidance range as we maintained our focus on variable cost control in the quarter. Finally, adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were towards the high end of our guidance range at $0.92.

本季營收略高於我們先前預期範圍的中點，為 2.182 億美元。2025 年第三季毛利率為 54%，其中包含約 1 個百分點的關稅影響。本季度，由於我們繼續專注於控制變動成本，營業利潤率達到 21.1%，超過了我們預期範圍的上限。最後，本季調整後的每股收益為 0.92 美元，接近我們預期範圍的高端。

And the market level for the third quarter of 2025 and advanced nodes generated revenue of $54 million or 25% of revenue as DRAM and NAND revenue decreased as expected, sequentially from the second quarter. For the full-year 2025, advanced nodes revenue is expected to double to approximately $300 million as compared to $148.5 million in full year 2024.

2025 年第三季市場水準和先進節點創造了 5,400 萬美元的收入，佔總收入的 25%，而 DRAM 和 NAND 的收入如預期般較第二季度有所下降。預計 2025 年全年先進節點收入將翻一番，達到約 3 億美元，而 2024 年全年為 1.485 億美元。

Specialty devices and advanced packaging revenue was $113 million or approximately 52% of revenue. A strong rebound to approximately $150 million in specialty device and advanced packaging expected in Q4. Revenue for this market should finish slightly higher than $500 million for the full year. Software and services revenue of $51 million comprises the remaining 23% of Q3's results.

特種設備和先進封裝業務收入為 1.13 億美元，約佔總收入的 52%。預計第四季特種設備和先進封裝市場將強勁反彈至約 1.5 億美元。該市場全年營收預計將略高於 5 億美元。軟體和服務收入為 5,100 萬美元，佔第三季業績的 23%。

The team did an outstanding job generating cash in the third quarter as cash from operations increased sequentially to $83 million from $58 million in Q2. This represents cash conversion of approximately 185% of our non-GAAP net income in the quarter. Given the pending acquisition of Semilab, we did not repurchase shares in the third quarter. Once the acquisition closes, which is expected in the coming weeks, we will pay Semilab $432.3 million in cash and issue 641,771 shares of our common stock. The value of the total transaction based upon Onto's closing price as of June 27, 2025, is approximately $495 million, a decrease of about $50 million from the original terms of the deal.

該團隊在第三季度出色地完成了現金流創造工作，經營活動產生的現金流從第二季的 5,800 萬美元環比增長至 8,300 萬美元。這相當於本季非GAAP淨收入的約185%轉化為現金。鑑於對 Semilab 的收購正在進行中，我們在第三季沒有回購股票。預計在未來幾週內完成收購後，我們將向 Semilab 支付 4.323 億美元現金，並發行 641,771 股普通股。根據 Onto 截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日的收盤價計算，該交易的總價值約為 4.95 億美元，比原交易條款減少了約 5,000 萬美元。

Now turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter. Revenue is expected in the range of $250 million to $265 million, representing 15% to 21% sequential growth. As Mike noted, the majority of the Q4 increase is expected to be driven by strength in advanced packaging with more modest improvement in advanced nodes, specifically around DRAM and logic.

現在來展望一下第四季。預計營收將在 2.5 億美元至 2.65 億美元之間，季增 15% 至 21%。正如麥克指出的那樣，第四季度的大部分成長預計將由先進封裝的強勁表現推動，而先進節點（特別是DRAM和邏輯）的改進則較為溫和。

At the midpoint of the revenue guidance range, we would expect to achieve approximately 50 basis points of sequential gross margin improvement in Q4. Our Q4 gross margin expectation also includes an anticipated percentage point impact of tariffs or approximately $2.5 million of cost, primarily due to inbound tariffs on raw material imports.

根據營收預期範圍的中點，我們預計第四季毛利率將較上季提高約 50 個基點。我們對第四季度毛利率的預期還包括關稅帶來的預計百分之幾的影響，或約 250 萬美元的成本，這主要是由於原材料進口關稅造成的。

Operating margins for the fourth quarter are expected to rebound to a range of 24% to 26%, on operating expenses of approximately $77 million. The fourth quarter, which will officially end on January 3, 2026, includes an additional 14th week, given the company's historical fiscal closing structure. The impact of this extra week is approximately $3 million in incremental operating expenses in the fourth quarter, representing approximately 120 basis points of operating margin.

預計第四季營業利潤率將反彈至 24% 至 26%，營業支出約 7,700 萬美元。第四季將於 2026 年 1 月 3 日正式結束，由於公司以往的財政結算結構，該季度額外包含 14 週。這額外一週的影響是第四季新增營運費用約 300 萬美元，相當於營業利潤率下降約 120 個基點。

Starting with the first quarter of 2026, Onto Innovation will switch to a quarterly calendar schedule of March 31, June 30, September 30, and December 31. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter is expected in the range of $1.18 to $1.33 per share, assuming an estimated tax rate of approximately 13% to 15%, and about 49.4 million shares outstanding. As a reminder, we are not including the pending Semilab transaction in our current Q4 guidance.

從 2026 年第一季開始，Onto Innovation 將改為按季發佈公告，日期分別為 3 月 31 日、6 月 30 日、9 月 30 日和 12 月 31 日。假設稅率約為 13% 至 15%，流通股約為 4,940 萬股，預計第四季每股收益在 1.18 美元至 1.33 美元之間。再次提醒，我們目前的第四季業績指引中不包括待完成的 Semilab 交易。

And with that, let me turn it back to Mike for some closing thoughts before we take your questions. Mike?

那麼，在回答大家的問題之前，我先把麥克風交給麥克，讓他做些總結發言。麥克風？

Thank you, Brian. In summary, we've made great progress on key initiatives that will position us for growth in the coming year. On the product front, we plan to ship our next-generation Dragonfly system in the coming weeks to a leading AI packaging customer with several additional systems slated for memory customers in December. Our 3Di technology has now been validated by two leading suppliers of high-bandwidth memory and adoption is expanding across a broader customer base.

謝謝你，布萊恩。總而言之，我們在關鍵舉措方面取得了巨大進展，這將為我們來年的成長奠定基礎。在產品方面，我們計劃在未來幾週內向一家領先的 AI 封裝客戶交付我們的下一代 Dragonfly 系統，並計劃在 12 月向記憶體客戶交付幾個額外的系統。我們的 3Di 技術現已得到兩家領先的高頻寬記憶體供應商的驗證，並且正在更廣泛的客戶群中得到應用。

From a broader market perspective, the long-term outlook for AI and advanced-node investments continues to build, driven by aggressive infrastructure expansion plans globally over the next several years. With our differentiated product portfolio and technology leadership in advanced nodes, advanced packaging and specialty devices, Onto Innovation continues to be well positioned to serve our customers and capitalize on these secular trends. We expect to see organic growth in 2026 with momentum building toward the second half of next year.

從更廣泛的市場角度來看，在未來幾年全球積極的基礎設施擴張計畫的推動下，人工智慧和先進節點投資的長期前景將繼續增強。憑藉差異化的產品組合以及在先進節點、先進封裝和專用裝置方面的技術領先優勢，Onto Innovation 將繼續保持良好的市場地位，為我們的客戶提供服務，並充分利用這些長期趨勢。我們預計 2026 年將實現有機成長，並且成長動能將在明年下半年持續增強。

And now, Rachel, let's open the call for questions from our covering analysts.

現在，瑞秋，讓我們開始接受各位分析師的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Craig Ellis, B. Riley Securities.

Craig Ellis，B. Riley Securities。

Yeah, and congratulations on the good execution guys. I wanted to start, Mike, just by following up on your most recent comments regarding organic growth through the year. Can you comment on what you'd expect for your two big segments, advanced packaging and advanced nodes? And any color on the linearity with those businesses.

是的，恭喜你們出色地完成了任務。麥克，我想先就你最近關於全年有機成長的評論做一些補充說明。您能否談談您對兩大細分市場——先進封裝和先進節點——的預期？以及與這些企業相關的任何線性關係。

You mean for 2026?

你是說2026年嗎？

For 2026, yes.

2026年，是的。

Yes. So I think it's a little early to provide especially linearity quarter to quarter kind of view. If we look at first half, second half, we think the first half is going to be sequentially better than the second half of 2025. So we do expect growth in the first half with more significant growth in the second half, driven by several different expansions that our customers are talking to us about as well as the impact from the new products coming online, being more widely adopted, let's say, getting cut into volume production. So that would be the 3Di, and it would also include the Dragonfly -- the new Dragonfly system.

是的。所以我認為現在就提供季度間的線性成長情況還為時過早。如果我們看一下上半年和下半年，我們認為 2025 年上半年會比下半年好得多。因此，我們預計上半年將實現成長，下半年將實現更顯著的成長，這主要得益於客戶與我們討論的幾項不同的擴張計劃，以及新產品上線後被更廣泛地採用（例如，投入批量生產）所帶來的影響。所以這就是 3Di，它還將包括 Dragonfly——新的 Dragonfly 系統。

Yeah. Nice to see on the new products. And then the second question is for Brian. Brian, as we look at gross margins next year, can you just help us with some of the gives and takes? Tariffs have been in gross margin, but when can that come out? And how should we look at some of the other gives and takes with that line item?

是的。很高興看到新產品有這些改進。第二個問題是問布萊恩的。Brian，在展望明年的毛利率時，你能否幫我們分析其中的一些優點和缺點？關稅已計入毛利，但何時才能扣除？那麼，我們應該如何看待該項內容的其他一些權衡取捨呢？

Sure. On the gross margin front, I mean, I think we'll start to see the tariff impact start to mitigate next quarter. Keep in mind, most of our tariffs are on inbound and so they sit in inventory for a quarter and then they start to come out. So as we continue to ramp up expansion of the offshore extended factories and more tools are going from there and supply chain is going right directly to those factories, we'll start to mitigate the tariff risk.

當然。就毛利率而言，我認為下個季度關稅的影響將開始緩解。請記住，我們的大部分關稅都是針對進口貨物的，因此貨物會在庫存中停留一個季度，然後開始產生關稅。因此，隨著我們繼續擴大海外延伸工廠的規模，越來越多的工具從那裡運出，供應鏈直接流向這些工廠，我們將開始降低關稅風險。

I think as we go through the transition to extended factories, we'll see a little bit more meaningful gross margin expansion as we get towards mid and the latter part of 2026. But we're certainly poised to have a good solid year of gross margin expansion.

我認為，隨著我們逐步過渡到擴大工廠規模，到 2026 年中後期，我們將看到毛利率有更顯著的成長。但我們完全有信心迎來毛利率穩定成長的一年。

Got it. And then lastly and somewhat clerically, once Semilab closes, do you plan to host another conference call? Or how will you update us once that's done?

知道了。最後，還有一個比較正式的問題，Semilab 結束後，你們是否打算再次舉辦電話會議？或者，完成後你們會如何通知我們？

My expectation is we'll just update you as part of the next earnings call. I don't think we'll provide an update right after close. We're going to take a little bit of time meeting with the team, having some more detailed discussions, and then provide a more informed view of the business probably in the next earnings call.

我預計我們會在下次財報電話會議上向您報告最新情況。我認為我們不會緊接著發布最新消息。我們將花點時間與團隊開會，進行一些更詳細的討論，然後可能會在下次財報電話會議上提供更全面的業務分析。

Ezra Weener, Jefferies.

埃茲拉‧韋納，傑富瑞集團。

First one would be about your commentary on 2.5D packaging. You talked about sequential growth into March. I just want to make sure I heard that correctly, you weren't talking about the entire business. And then the other sequential question would be, when you talk about sequential growth in the first half. Is that half over half or quarterly sequential growth?

第一個問題是關於您對 2.5D 包裝的看法。您談到了三月的持續成長。我只是想確認我是否聽錯了，你說的不是整個公司。那麼，接下來要討論的另一個問題是，當你談到前半段的連續成長時。這是指季度環比增長還是季度環比增長？

So when I mentioned sequential growth was half over half. So second half of '25. We would -- first half of '26 would be sequentially stronger than second half of '25. And I'm not sure the 2.5D question on what was your question there?

所以當我提到連續成長是一半超過一半的時候。所以是2025年下半年。我們認為－2026 年上半年將比 2025 年下半年更強勁。我不確定你剛剛問的2.5D問題是什麼？

You had talked about sequential growth immediately after 2.5D packaging. I was wondering if that comment had to do specifically with 2.5D packaging.

您之前談到在 2.5D 包裝之後立即進行順序增長。我想知道那條評論是否專門與 2.5D 包裝有關。

No. It was -- yeah, mainly just, I think, AI packaging is primarily driven by our -- I think that was about Q3 to Q4, driving growth, and it's primarily due to the AI packaging and strong demand for Dragonfly systems.

不。是的，主要是，我認為，AI 包裝業務的成長主要由我們的成長——我認為那是在第三季到第四季之間，推動了成長，這主要歸功於 AI 包裝業務和對 Dragonfly 系統的強勁需求。

But the sequential growth -- sorry, the sequential growth in the first half of '26, we were talking about the entire business, Ezra.

但是，埃茲拉，我們談論的是整個業務的連續成長——抱歉，是 2026 年上半年的連續成長。

Understood. And then the second question would be, with the understanding that you might not see revenue until the second half from the new Dragonfly. Can you talk about the ecosystem between now and then and the timing of when you would see revenue from that?

明白了。那麼第二個問題是，考慮到您可能要到下半年才能從新的 Dragonfly 中獲得收入。您能否談談從現在到那時生態系統的發展情況，以及您預計何時能從中獲得收益？

I didn't say we wouldn't see any revenue. It's very possible we'll see revenue in the first half. It's just going to be onesie, twosies until it starts shipping and volumes, larger volumes. So second half will be more meaningful. But I would expect to convert some of these early shipments in -- as soon as the first half.

我沒說我們不會有任何收入。我們很有可能在上半年看到營收。在開始出貨和大量生產之前，只會是連身衣、兩件套。所以下半場會更有意義。但我預計最快在上半年就能將這些早期出貨的部分產品轉化成成品。

David Duley, Steelhead Securities.

David Duley，Steelhead Securities。

Regarding the qualification of the 3Di tool at two HBM customers for bump inspection, is that tied to the ramp of HBM for? And are you going to be the first source or the second source there?

關於 3Di 工具在兩家 HBM 客戶處進行凸點檢測的認證，這是否與 HBM 的斜坡有關？你會成為那裡的第一資訊來源還是第二資訊來源？

Well, we're not aware of anyone else being qualified through the stringent tests yet. So our hope is first choice, however you worded that. But I think the -- it is tied to an HBM 4. We've been working with customers on other ways to do even existing processes that would provide a better yield impact. So applying the 3Di technology that we supply in different process steps, which would allow for some level of rework that would help the customers if they do have -- if the detect any issues to rework it, and then drive some higher yields.

目前我們還沒有發現其他通過嚴格測試的合格人員。所以，無論你怎麼說，我們的希望都是首選。但我認為——它與 HBM 4 有關。我們一直在與客戶合作，探索其他方法來改善現有流程，從而獲得更好的收益。因此，我們將提供的 3Di 技術應用於不同的製程步驟中，這將允許一定程度的返工，如果客戶發現任何問題，這將有助於他們返工，從而提高良率。

That's something that only our tools can do, but it's a very new capability. So customers are working on what's the true impact of that across their process. Do they want to make the change now in existing processes or only in the forward-looking.

只有我們的工具才能做到這一點，但這確實是一項全新的功能。因此，客戶正在研究這會對他們的整個流程產生怎樣的真正影響。他們希望現在就對現有流程進行改變，還是只對未來流程進行改變？

Okay. My second question is more of a clarification. I just -- I wanted to make sure I understood everything you said. So as far as the Dragonfly goes, you're going to start to ship the new tool to your primary customer that you've lost share with over the next couple of weeks. Could you maybe just rerun everything you said about the Dragonfly so I get it right?

好的。我的第二個問題更像是澄清說明。我只是——我想確保我完全理解了你說的每一句話。所以就 Dragonfly 而言，在接下來的幾週內，你將開始向你失去市場份額的主要客戶交付這款新工具。您能不能再重複一次您之前關於蜻蜓的說法，好讓我理解清楚？

I have an entire script on the Dragonfly. So I believe what I said was we'll be shipping Dragonfly to a 2.5D logic packaging customer in weeks. So that's one. And then I said that Dragonfly -- additional Dragonflies will ship in December, primarily to memory customers.

我有一整套關於蜻蜓號的劇本。所以我相信我當時說的是，我們將在幾週內向 2.5D 邏輯封裝客戶出貨 Dragonfly。這是其中之一。然後我說，Dragonfly——更多的 Dragonfly 將於 12 月發貨，主要面向記憶體用戶。

Then I said that in the first quarter, based on the successful demos we've done in the third quarter, we are shipping several more Dragonflies. So we've already increased the number of Dragonflies we intend to ship.

然後我說，根據我們在第三季進行的成功演示，我們將在第一季交付更多 Dragonfly 產品。因此，我們已經增加了計劃發貨的蜻蜓數量。

Okay. And it's not just a one customer, it's multiple customers?

好的。而且不只是一個顧客，而是多個顧客？

Correct. Yes. It's the multiple customers. Yes.

正確的。是的。是顧客眾多造成的。是的。

And then final question for me is, as far as your core inspection business with HBM, do you think that's going to be a growth factor in 2026? Or has it started to turn on with the ramp of HBM 4? Or how should we think about that?

最後一個問題是，就您與 HBM 的核心檢測業務而言，您認為這會是 2026 年的成長因素嗎？或者說，它是否隨著 HBM 4 的啟動而開始運作？我們該如何看待這個問題？

I think where the customers are also still trying to figure that one out. So for sure, from their perspective, there's going to be some growth. What it means for the process control is not completely clear yet. Customers are working on their allocations, what they spent on process control in the prior year, how much can be reused, do they adjust sampling plans, et cetera. The normal things they always do. So that's the discussions we're having now with customers.

我認為顧客們也還在努力弄清楚這一點。所以從他們的角度來看，肯定會有一些成長。這對過程控制意味著什麼，目前還不完全清楚。客戶正在研究他們的分配情況，他們在上一年在過程控制方面花費了多少，有多少可以重複使用，他們是否調整抽樣計劃等等。他們一直都在做那些平常的事。這就是我們目前與客戶進行的討論內容。

I would say the real good, strong takeaway though is the positions of our tools are demonstrating unique capabilities or the next-generation devices. So as customers start to bring those next-generation devices into more higher volume, primarily in the second half of next year, we should see an outsized positive impact from that.

不過，我認為真正有價值的結論是，我們工具的定位正在展示其獨特的功能，或者說是下一代設備。因此，隨著客戶開始大量購買這些下一代設備，尤其是在明年下半年，我們應該會看到由此產生的巨大正面影響。

Matthew Prisco, Cantor.

馬修·普里斯科，領唱。

So I guess, first one, I'll stick on Dragonfly. It seems like making good progress in the quarter. So kind of after you shift these initial valuation tools, what milestone should we look to from here? And how should we think about the timing of customer adoption decisions both at TSM and all these ancillary opportunities? And then the transition from those adoption decisions to revenue? How quickly can those kind of start shipping for production?

所以我想，第一個，我就選蜻蜓吧。本季似乎進展順利。那麼，在調整這些初始估值工具之後，我們接下來該關注哪個里程碑呢？我們應該如何看待客戶在 TSM 以及所有這些輔助機會中做出採用決策的時機？那麼，如何將這些採用決策轉化為收入呢？這些產品最快可以開始大量生產出貨嗎？

I think it would be reasonable to assume second half. In fact, we said that in the second half, we would expect to see more meaningful revenue from the new products that we're shipping. So as we're qualifying, and that's the good news about shipping to a variety of customers, we're getting those qualifications started such that they're also intending to try and ramp into the second half to cut these technologies into the second half.

我認為假設是下半場是合理的。事實上，我們曾表示，在下半年，我們預計將從我們推出的新產品中獲得更可觀的收入。所以，隨著我們獲得資格認證，這是向各種客戶發貨的好消息，我們正在啟動這些資格認證，以便他們也打算在下半年加大力度，將這些技術應用到下半年。

So as long as we continue to execute, as long as the tools perform as well as they're demonstrating now, yes, I would expect, like I mentioned earlier, incremental revenue in the first half, that means closing out some of these initial tools with more meaningful revenue in the second half tied to the volume adoption that cut into production.

所以，只要我們繼續執行，只要這些工具能像現在這樣表現出色，是的，就像我之前提到的那樣，我預計上半年會有增量收入，這意味著在下半年結束這些初始工具的銷售，從而獲得更有意義的收入，這與減少生產投入的大規模採用有關。

That's helpful. And then maybe going to that 3Di, these new qualifications. Can you kind of give some more color on what drove the win there? How you're seeing your competitive positioning in that technology today? And then how do we think about the translation of those wins to the P&L and potential magnitude of impact there?

那很有幫助。然後或許可以去參加 3Di 考試，獲得這些新的資格認證。能再詳細說說那場勝利的緣由嗎？您如何看待目前在該技術領域的競爭地位？那麼，我們該如何考慮這些勝利對損益表的影響以及可能的影響程度呢？

So I don't think there's this huge -- big jump into the 2026 for the 3Di. There will be an incremental improvement, and then we'll see a bigger impact even in 2027. By incremental, I mean, tens of millions of dollars will be driven by 3Di. So now why is -- why are we winning? Why is the 3Di so important?

所以我認為 3Di 在 2026 年不會有巨大的飛躍。情況會逐步改善，到 2027 年我們將看到更大的影響。所謂“增量”，我的意思是，3Di 將帶來數千萬美元的成長。那麼現在的問題是──為什麼我們會贏？為什麼 3Di 如此重要？

There's a couple of things going on. One, in the last call, we talked about several -- well, let me start with the technology. The technology is differentiated and that it uses the laser base coherent light. Coherent light allows us to focus it in between the dense, smaller bumps. And we can do that at a throughput and with the precision that the customers require, which is extremely stringent as they're moving from HBM3, 4, 4E, and beyond. That's one thing. So that's one of the reasons we've won those two qualifications and it was obviously a very stringent evaluation period.

有兩件事正在發生。在上次通話中，我們討論了幾個問題——好吧，讓我先從技術說起。該技術具有獨特性，它使用基於雷射的相干光。相干光使我們能夠將其聚焦在密集、較小的凸起之間。而且，我們能夠以客戶要求的吞吐量和精度做到這一點，這要求非常嚴格，因為他們正在從 HBM3、4、4E 及更高版本過渡。這是一件事。所以這就是我們贏得這兩項資格賽資格的原因之一，而且顯然這是一個非常嚴格的評估期。

The second is because of this capability, where the technology and what it's providing, we're opening up several new applications. So -- actually, at least three new applications. One is the one I described earlier, where we can potentially apply 3D bump metrology at a different step in the process, which will allow customers, let's say, to do some rework and provide a better yield improvement. That's one.

第二點是，由於這項技術及其所提供的能力，我們正在開闢幾個新的應用領域。所以——實際上，至少有三個新的應用程式。其中之一是我之前描述過的，我們可以在流程的不同步驟中應用 3D 凸點計量技術，這樣一來，客戶就可以進行一些返工，從而提高良率。這是其中之一。

Two is there's two other new applications where the technology has a speed and the precision to provide other types of metrology across surfaces. So across die, warpage metrology as well as some specialized metrology for 2.5D packaging.

其次，該技術還有另外兩種新的應用，其速度和精度足以提供其他類型的表面計量。因此，包括晶片翹曲計量以及一些針對 2.5D 封裝的專用計量。

Brian Chin, Stifel.

Brian Chin，Stifel。

Maybe first, just to follow up on the 3D discussion. From the sounds of it, this sounds like it's the pre-reflow bump metrology step, Mike. Is that correct? And is this an additional or new metrology step for many of these adopters?

首先，我們來跟進一下關於 3D 的討論。聽起來，這像是回流焊接前的凸點計量步驟，麥克。是這樣嗎？對於許多採用者而言，這是否是一個額外的或全新的計量步驟？

Correct. And it is a new metrology step because previous technologies couldn't reliably measure at that pre-reflow step. The light would scatter too much is what we're told.

正確的。這是一個新的計量步驟，因為先前的技術無法在回流焊接前的步驟中進行可靠測量。據稱，光線會散射得太厲害。

Okay. And would you expect -- in terms of the amount or the metrology time required kind of post reflow, would that kind of potentially decrease that?

好的。那麼，就回流焊接後所需的計量時間或數量而言，您認為這是否有可能減少這種情況？

I think you would eliminate. So you'd be -- the customers, their intent and our discussions are around shifting the metrology to pre-reflow, so you don't need to do a post-reflow. There's a strong correlation there, but you have the ability to rework.

我認為你會淘汰。所以，客戶、他們的意圖以及我們的討論都圍繞著將計量轉移到回流焊接前，這樣就不需要進行回流焊接後計量了。這之間有強烈的相關性，但你有能力進行調整。

Got it. And then for a follow-up question, kind of weaving in sort of, again, your view of advance to WFE markets as well as advanced packaging. Q3 this year kind of a low quarter. You're up in Q4. And so sequential first half versus second half, it's helped by that kind of low 3Q.

知道了。然後，還有一個後續問題，我想再次談談您對 WFE 市場以及先進包裝發展的看法。今年第三季業績比較低迷。你在第四季。因此，上半場與下半場的連續性，得益於第三季的低迷表現。

But when you kind of think about whether the quarters without giving a specific quarters, 1Q, 2Q, whether they'd be kind of linearly up or there could be sort of up or down, what are the kind of the key swing variables you're looking at around either advanced packaging, co-OS investments, maybe also kind of changes in sampling plans for use, et cetera, and also advanced nodes, where there does seem to be some pickup now in the DRAM side of that spending?

但是，如果你仔細考慮一下，不具體指出是哪個季度，例如第一季、第二季度，它們會是線性成長還是會出現上升或下降，那麼你關注的關鍵波動變數是什麼？例如先進的封裝技術、共作業系統投資、使用樣品計畫的變化等等，以及先進的製程節點，目前看來，DRAM 的支出確實增加？

And maybe you can even kind of like even advanced foundry front-end spending. So kind of all the kind of variables that you think about in terms of how the revenue could trend in the first half next year.

或許你甚至會喜歡上先進的代工廠前端支出。所以，所有你考慮到的、可能影響明年上半年收入走勢的各種變數。

So I think it really depends on the customer spend plans. Right? So -- and that's always the case. That's why I'm struggling how to answer it. A lot of customers are opening and have spoken about factory expansions, but most of them are going in for second half. We, of course, get process control systems in early. So we get in, let's say, in before that the larger WFE starts to rise and pick up from that. So -- and that's normal process control spending patterns. That's one.

所以我認為這真的取決於客戶的消費計畫。正確的？所以——情況總是如此。這就是我不知道該如何回答這個問題的原因。很多客戶都在籌備開業和工廠擴建，但他們中的大多數都是在下半年進行。當然，我們會儘早引入過程控制系統。所以，我們可以在WFE（工作場所設備效率）大幅上升之前進入市場，並從中受益。所以——這就是正常的流程控制支出模式。這是其中之一。

On the AI packaging front, there is some level of capacity digestion, process optimization, that's both positive and negative. So some of it is, hey, because of the challenges with the new technologies, some of it is tied to, hey, we overbought in one area. We need to optimize some processes there, but wholly macro, we have struggled in another area. And we need the new technology. So some of these 3Di applications, I mentioned, are new technologies.

在人工智慧包裝方面，產能消化和流程優化有一定的程度，這既有積極的一面，也有消極的一面。所以，部分原因是新科技帶來的挑戰，部分原因是我們在某個領域過度採購。我們需要優化一些流程，但從宏觀角度來看，我們在另一個領域遇到了困難。我們需要這項新技術。我提到的這些 3Di 應用中，有些是新技術。

Some of the subsurface applications are new where we're seeing a lot of demand are for new applications. So it's very hard for us to quantify that. And that's why we said there could still be -- so to answer your question in one way, we don't expect linear. We do expect some variability quarter to quarter. It's kind of natural. But the secular trend, we think, is positive, and we also think we're well positioned.

有些地下應用是新興領域，我們看到這類新應用的需求很大。因此，我們很難對其進行量化。所以這就是為什麼我們說可能還會出現這種情況——因此，從某種意義上說，回答你的問題，我們並不期望線性變化。我們預計各季度之間會有一些波動。這很自然。但我們認為，長期趨勢是正面的，我們也認為我們已經佔據了有利地位。

Edward Yang, Oppenheimer.

愛德華楊，奧本海默。

Just to clarify on a couple of numbers, the tens of millions of 3Di you're talking about, that's for 2026, correct? And I also heard you say something about shipping 20% more tools. Was that related to AI packaging?

為了澄清幾個數字，你提到的數千萬台 3Di，是指 2026 年的產量，對嗎？我還聽到你提到要增加 20% 的工具出貨量。那和人工智慧包裝有關嗎？

Correct. Yes. And it's based on initial discussions. So the early indications -- kind of going back to Brian Chin's question. We're getting early indications of a certain level of demand, but that can change. And we're still in the early stages of discussion. So it's really hard for us to provide any kind of real guidance on that.

正確的。是的。這是基於初步討論得出的結論。所以，初步跡象——有點像是回到布萊恩·欽提出的問題。我們初步察覺到一定程度的需求，但這可能會改變。我們目前仍處於討論的初期階段。因此，我們很難就此提供任何實質的指導。

But the 3Di, correct. That was for 2026.

但3Di，沒錯。那是針對2026年的預測。

And the 20% more tools comment you had in the script?

你在腳本中提到的「增加 20% 的工具」是什麼意思？

Is for primarily AI packaging. Correct.

主要用於人工智慧包裝。正確的。

Okay. And that would account for the fact that you wouldn't be shipping or recognizing much revenue from your new high-res Dragonfly G5 tool until the second half of 2026, right?

好的。這樣就能解釋為什麼你的新型高解析度 Dragonfly G5 工具要到 2026 年下半年才能開始出貨或獲得大量收入，對吧？

Correct. Yes.

正確的。是的。

Okay. Wonderful. And could you just comment or provide your thoughts on the tightness and the strong pricing your customers are enjoying in memory markets and how that might pertain to 2026? You had a $69 million DRAM VPA starting this year. Does that cover this current market strength that you're seeing in those memory markets? Or do you expect more orders coming down the pipe?

好的。精彩的。您能否就您的客戶在儲存市場享受到的緊張局面和強勁價格，以及這可能與 2026 年有何關聯，發表一些看法或見解？今年年初你們獲得了價值 6900 萬美元的 DRAM VPA。這是否涵蓋了您目前在記憶體市場看到的強勁市場動能？或者您預計會有更多訂單陸續到來？

I believe the existing VPAs covered this year, and I believe we've worked through those. I don't think there's any -- we've had actually a pretty strong year in advanced nodes. So I believe most of that is already covered. And the discussions we have now are all new VPAs for next year and slightly beyond.

我相信今年現有的虛擬購買協議已經涵蓋了這些內容，而且我相信我們已經處理了這些協議。我不認為有任何不足之處——事實上，我們在高階節點領域今年的表現相當強勁。所以我覺得大部分內容都已經涵蓋了。我們現在討論的都是明年及以後幾年的新自願夥伴關係協議。

Okay. And my follow-up would just be on Semilab again. On the amended terms, were you surprised that regulators had wanted some scrutiny around that? And could you just provide your updated confidence in approval with the changes that you made and the timing on that?

好的。我的後續問題還是會再次出現在 Semilab 上。對於修改後的條款，監管機構希望對此進行一些審查，您是否感到驚訝？能否請您更新一下您對修改後的審批結果的信心，以及審批時間？

Well, since it's not closed and not wanting to ruffle any feathers from potential regulators, I will say, yes, we were surprised, but we worked cooperatively with Semilab team, with everybody to find a very reasonable solution.

嗯，既然這件事還沒結束，而且我也不想得罪潛在的監管機構，我會說，是的，我們感到很意外，但我們與 Semilab 團隊以及所有人通力合作，找到了一個非常合理的解決方案。

Vedvati Shrotre, Evercore ISI.

Vedvati Shrotre，Evercore ISI。

The first one I wanted to understand was the first half '26 sequential increase that you talked about, like where do you have the most confidence advanced node versus packaging? Like is one doing better than the other? If you could give any directional sense on that.

我首先想了解的是你提到的 '26 年上半年的順序增長，例如你對高級節點和封裝哪個更有信心？哪個做得更好？如果你能就此給予一些方向性的建議就好了。

I think -- I actually don't have the numbers in front of me, but my impression is that it's probably advanced nodes in specialty devices continuing to show some strength. Advanced nodes also okay, but advanced nodes, many of those factories are second half. So I think that will be much stronger in the second half.

我認為——我手邊其實沒有具體數據，但我的印像是，可能是專業設備中的先進節點繼續展現出一定的優勢。高階節點也可以，但是很多高階節點工廠都屬於後半部。所以我認為下半場會表現得更好。

So sorry, advanced nodes will be more stronger in the second half, is that --

非常抱歉，高階節點在下半場會更強，是這樣嗎？--

Yeah, I think -- so basically, the advanced packaging, segment advanced packaging, specialty device, probably coming out in the advanced nodes in the second half. But again, as Mike has kind of pointed out, a lot of those discussions are still early days as we work through the exact timing of spend with customers and all of those pieces.

是的，我認為——所以基本上，先進封裝、細分先進封裝、專用元件，可能會在下半年的先進節點中推出。但正如麥克指出的那樣，許多討論仍處於早期階段，因為我們還在研究與客戶溝通的具體時間安排以及所有這些細節。

Understood. Okay. And then I think last quarter or the whole of this year, you sort of had that view that one of the HBM suppliers isn't qualified and that's kind of limiting the visibility you have on HBM progression. How has that conversation changed last quarter versus this quarter? Has the visibility gotten much better now that the demand dynamics have changed so significantly for the memory supplier?

明白了。好的。然後我認為，在上個季度或今年全年，人們普遍認為其中一家 HBM 供應商不合格，這在某種程度上限制了你對 HBM 進展的了解。與上個季度相比，本季這一討論方向發生了哪些變化？鑑於記憶體供應商的需求動態發生瞭如此巨大的變化，目前市場前景是否變得更加明朗？

Well, I won't -- the visibility is improving for -- with regards to our discussions with the suppliers, but the who's been qualified and who's -- what the allocations are? I'm not so sure that, that visibility has gotten much better.

嗯，我不會——就我們與供應商的討論而言，情況正在好轉——但是哪些供應商獲得了資格，哪些供應商——分配情況如何？我不太確定能見度是否真的有了很大改善。

Understood. Okay. And then the third thing I kind of wanted to understand was, if I sort of take the larger caps, like the land, not necessarily your competitors, but a lot of them are already seeing like strong quarter-on-quarter growth on HBM and DRAM of like fourth quarter versus third quarter. Are you seeing any of that?

明白了。好的。第三，我想了解的是，如果我以市值較大的公司為例，例如土地，不一定是你的競爭對手，但許多公司已經看到 HBM 和 DRAM 的季度環比增長強勁，例如第四季度與第三季度相比。你看過這些情況嗎？

First, you mean in the fourth quarter?

首先，你指的是第四季嗎？

Yes.

是的。

In the fourth quarter, yeah, we mentioned that we are seeing strength in the -- well, more of our -- yes, strength in the memory. Yes, DRAM. DRAM then some logic. Obviously, NAND is still very weak.

是的，我們在第四季度提到，我們看到了——嗯，更確切地說——是的，記憶力方面的優勢。是的，DRAM。然後是DRAM，接著是一些邏輯運算。顯然，NAND快閃記憶體仍然非常脆弱。

And HBM is muted. Is that kind of fair?

HBM 被靜音。這樣公平嗎？

Well, then HBM goes to the packaging side. In packaging, I think we've just -- we mentioned that it's an extremely strong growth from the AI packaging side. I think we said almost 50%.

那麼，HBM 就轉到包裝方面了。在包裝領域，我認為我們已經提到過，人工智慧包裝方面實現了非常強勁的成長。我想我們說的是接近 50%。

Right. So the packaging growth, my interpretation was most of it was driven by essentially your OSAT plus kind of the foundry logic piece growing. Does that have HBM element in there as well?

正確的。所以，我的理解是，封裝產業的成長主要是由 OSAT 和代工邏輯業務的成長所驅動的。裡面也含有HBM元素嗎？

For sure, HBM as part of our Q4 forecast is it driving most of the growth, I mean I didn't break it all down into that, but it's for sure AI packaging, and that includes HBM.

可以肯定的是，HBM 作為我們第四季度預測的一部分，正在推動大部分成長。我的意思是，我沒有把所有因素都細分出來，但可以肯定的是，AI 封裝（包括 HBM）是成長的主要驅動力。

(Operator Instructions) And at this time, we have no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back.

（操作說明）目前我們沒有其他問題了。我現在想掛斷電話。

Thanks, Rachel. We will be participating in a number of investor conferences throughout the quarter. We look forward to seeing many of you there. A replay of the call today will be available on our website at approximately 7:30 PM Eastern Time this evening. We would like to thank you for your continued interest in Onto Innovation.

謝謝你，瑞秋。本季我們將參加多場投資者會議。我們期待在那裡見到你們中的許多人。今天電話會議的錄音將於今晚美國東部時間晚上7:30左右在我們的網站上提供。感謝您一直以來對 Onto Innovation 的關注。

Rachel, please conclude the call.

瑞秋，請結束通話。

This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。