Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Onto Innovation third quarter earnings release conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Sidney Ho. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Onto Innovation 第三季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。這次，我想把會議交給 Sidney Ho。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Lisa and good afternoon, everyone. Onto Innovation issued this 2024 third quarter financial results this afternoon shortly after the market closed. If you did not receive a copy of the release, please refer to the company's website where a copy of the release is posted.

謝謝麗莎，大家下午好。今天下午收盤後不久，Onto Innovation 發布了 2024 年第三季財務業績。如果您沒有收到該新聞稿的副本，請參閱發布新聞稿副本的公司網站。

Joining us on the call today are Michael Plisinski, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Slicer, Chief Financial Officer. I'd like to remind you that the statements made by management on this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities Laws. Those statements are subject to a range of changes, risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to vary materially.

今天加入我們電話會議的是執行長 Michael Plisinski；和財務長 Mark Slicer。我想提醒您，管理層在本次電話會議中發表的聲明將包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述可能會受到一系列變化、風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。

For more information regarding the risk factors that may impact Onto Innovation's results, I would encourage you to review our earnings release and our SEC filings. Onto Innovation does not undertake the obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

有關可能影響 Onto Innovation 業績的風險因素的更多信息，我建議您查看我們的收益報告和 SEC 備案文件。Onto Innovation 不承擔根據新資訊或未來事件更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a Non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified as a reminder, a detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings release.

今天對我們財務表現的討論將在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行，除非另有說明，提醒您，公認會計準則和非公認會計準則業績之間的詳細對帳可以在今天的收益報告中找到。

Let me now turn the call over to our CEO Mike Plisinski. Mike?

現在讓我將電話轉給我們的執行長 Mike Plisinski。麥克風？

Thank you, Sidney. Good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining us today. Overall, we executed well in the third quarter with revenue coming in at $252 million and setting a new quarterly record for inspection. In fact, we're on pace to nearly double our inspection revenue this calendar year. We also improved our gross margin to 54.5% and operating margin to 28%.

謝謝你，西德尼。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。總體而言，我們在第三季表現良好，營收達到 2.52 億美元，創下了新的季度檢查記錄。事實上，今年我們的檢查收入可望增加近一倍。我們也將毛利率提高至 54.5%，營業利潤率提高至 28%。

This resulted in record cash generation from operations of $67 million. Mark will soon discuss these highlights and our outlook for Q4, which was negatively impacted by over $10 million in JetStep lithography pushouts due to customers capacity needs.

這使得營運產生的現金達到創紀錄的 6,700 萬美元。Mark 很快就會討論這些亮點以及我們對第四季度的展望，由於客戶產能需求，第四季度受到超過 1000 萬美元的 JetStep 光刻推出的負面影響。

But first, we'll review the third quarter highlights, starting with our specialty device and advanced packaging markets, where AI packaging revenue led the inspection business with growth in high-bandwidth memory offsetting a little less than projected decline in 2.5D logic packaging.

但首先，我們將回顧第三季度的亮點，從我們的特種設備和先進封裝市場開始，其中人工智慧封裝收入領先於檢查業務，高頻寬記憶體的成長抵消了略小於2.5D 邏輯封裝預計下降的影響。

Looking ahead, we expect to see increases in volume for logic packaging as well as an increase in capital intensity for process control to address the growing complexity and need for higher process yields. This includes new demand for our front-end metrology systems, particularly for films and acoustic metrology. In fact, advanced packaging was one of the largest markets for our metrology business this quarter.

展望未來，我們預期邏輯封裝的產量將會增加，製程控制的資本密集度也會增加，以解決日益增長的複雜性和對更高製程良率的需求。這包括對我們的前端計量系統的新需求，特別是薄膜和聲學計量。事實上，先進封裝是本季我們計量業務的最大市場之一。

Revenue from power devices was the second largest market and also set a quarterly record. Growth came from both metrology and inspection process control systems. Our power semiconductor customers continue to focus on driving yield improvements, especially with challenges associated with transitioning to larger wafer sizes, even as end demand remains temporarily muted.

功率元件的收入是第二大市場，也創下了季度記錄。成長來自計量和檢驗過程控制系統。儘管最終需求暫時保持低迷，我們的功率半導體客戶仍繼續專注於推動產量提高，特別是面對與過渡到更大晶圓尺寸相關的挑戰。

We expect this focus on yield to continue into next year and at least sustain this record level of revenue. Inspection has clearly been a strong driver for us and we're expanding our core inspection technology with the tuck-in of Lumina Instruments announced earlier today.

我們預計對收益率的關注將持續到明年，並至少維持創紀錄的收入水準。檢測顯然是我們的強大推動力，我們正在透過今天早些時候宣布的 Lumina Instruments 來擴展我們的核心檢測技術。

Lumina is a small company with a very rich background in laser-based inspection technologies used in unpatterned wafer and emerging panel applications. Their patented technology will allow us to simultaneously scan top, bottom and subsurfaces with sensitivities below 100 nanometers for silicon carbide and gallium nitride applications.

Lumina 是一家小公司，在用於無圖案晶圓和新興面板應用的雷射檢測技術方面擁有非常豐富的背景。他們的專利技術將使我們能夠以低於 100 奈米的靈敏度同時掃描碳化矽和氮化鎵應用的頂部、底部和次表面。

We believe this technology will also be important for inspection of glass substrates and carriers used in 2.5D and 3D advanced packages where detecting surface defects, buried inclusion defects and residues on the silicon or glass core are important to yield.

我們相信，這項技術對於2.5D 和3D 先進封裝中使用的玻璃基板和載體的檢測也很重要，其中檢測矽或玻璃芯上的表面缺陷、埋入夾雜物缺陷和殘留物對良率很重要。

This new capability is complementary to our pattern inspection technologies with no overlapping capability. And as a result, we expect the new applications will expand our SAM by $250 million annually in the next three years.

這項新功能是我們的圖案檢測技術的補充，沒有重疊的功能。因此，我們預計新應用程式將在未來三年內將我們的 SAM 每年增加 2.5 億美元。

In addition to Lumina Instruments, we announced the acquisition of the lithography business from Kulicke and Soffa. With this tuck-in, we had an incredibly talented team with over 200 man years of lithography experience, 24 issued patents and 8 more pending.

除了 Lumina Instruments 之外，我們還宣布收購 Kulicke 和 Soffa 的光刻業務。透過這次整合，我們擁有了一支極其才華橫溢的團隊，擁有超過 200 人年的光刻經驗、24 項已頒發專利和 8 項正在申請中的專利。

Based in Eindhoven, we believe this team and technology will contribute to the acceleration of our JetStep lithography road maps and extend our competitive differentiation. We expect the combination of these two small tuck-ins to be accretive to earnings within 12 months and generate up to $100 million in annual revenue in the next three years. For reference, revenue today is negligible.

總部位於埃因霍溫，我們相信這個團隊和技術將有助於加速我們的 JetStep 光刻路線圖並擴大我們的競爭優勢。我們預計這兩個小額投入的結合將在 12 個月內增加收益，並在未來三年內產生高達 1 億美元的年收入。作為參考，今天的收入可以忽略不計。

While we strengthen our opportunities in the specialty and advanced packaging markets, we also see a recovery from the advanced nodes. As expected, we saw growth in logic, DRAM and NAND in the quarter. In addition to our strong position in OCD metrology for these markets, we're seeing solid traction with our film metrology. This year, we're on pace to grow films metrology by over 50% versus 2023.

雖然我們加強了在專業和先進封裝市場的機會，但我們也看到了先進節點的復甦。正如預期的那樣，我們在本季度看到了邏輯、DRAM 和 NAND 的成長。除了我們在這些市場的 OCD 計量方面的強大地位之外，我們還看到我們的薄膜計量具有堅實的吸引力。今年，我們的薄膜計量業務預計將比 2023 年成長 50% 以上。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mark to review our financial highlights and provide fourth quarter guidance.

現在我將把電話轉給馬克，以審查我們的財務亮點並提供第四季度的指導。

Thanks, Mike and good afternoon, everyone. As Mike highlighted, we exceeded the midpoint of our revenue and EPS guidance, executing towards the high end of these ranges due to better than expected demand for advanced packaging for AI devices, gate all around investments in advanced nodes and stronger software and services within the quarter.

謝謝麥克，大家下午好。As Mike highlighted, we exceeded the midpoint of our revenue and EPS guidance, executing towards the high end of these ranges due to better than expected demand for advanced packaging for AI devices, gate all around investments in advanced nodes and stronger software and services within the四分之一.

We achieved another record operating cash flow of $67 million for the second straight quarter. Operating cash flow yield of 27% represents more than doubling of operating cash during the same period last year. Third quarter revenue of $252 million was up 4% versus the second quarter and up 22% versus the prior year.

我們連續第二季創下 6,700 萬美元營運現金流的新紀錄。營運現金流收益率為 27%，相當於去年同期營運現金的兩倍多。第三季營收為 2.52 億美元，比第二季成長 4%，比去年同期成長 22%。

The third quarter EPS increased 2% sequentially to $1.34 and up 40% versus the prior year. Looking at the quarterly revenue by markets. Our biggest market remains specialty devices and advanced packaging, which was down slightly from Q2 with quarterly revenue of $161 million and represents 64% of revenue.

第三季每股收益比上一季成長 2%，達到 1.34 美元，比去年同期成長 40%。按市場查看季度營收。我們最大的市場仍然是特種裝置和先進封裝，較第二季略有下降，季度收入為 1.61 億美元，佔營收的 64%。

Our biggest sequential increase was advanced nodes, which had revenue of $42 million, increased 32% over Q2 and represents 17% of revenue.

我們季增幅最大的是高階節點，其營收為 4,200 萬美元，比第二季成長 32%，佔營收的 17%。

Software and services with revenue of $49 million increased 5% over Q2, representing 19% of revenue. We achieved 55% gross margin for the third quarter at the high end of our guidance range of 53% to 55%, driving more than 100 basis point improvement over the second quarter and over 300 basis point improvement since the beginning of the year.

軟體和服務收入為 4,900 萬美元，比第二季成長 5%，佔營收的 19%。我們第三季的毛利率達到了 55%，處於我們指導範圍 53% 至 55% 的上限，比第二季度提高了 100 個基點以上，自年初以來提高了 300 個基點以上。

Third quarter operating expenses were $67 million, exceeding the high end of our guidance range as we accelerated our ramp in R&D investments within the quarter, extending our product capabilities in integrated metrology and technology differentiation to expand our 3D metrology for advanced packaging applications.

第三季營運費用為6700 萬美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限，因為我們在本季度加快了研發投資的步伐，擴展了我們在整合計量和技術差異化方面的產品能力，以擴展我們針對先進封裝應用的3D 計量。

For operating income of $70 million was 28% of revenue for the third quarter compared to 27% from the second quarter. We achieved quarter over quarter operating margin improvement with three consecutive quarters totaling approximately a 300 basis point improvement since the start of the year.

營業收入為 7,000 萬美元，佔第三季營收的 28%，而第二季為 27%。自年初以來，我們的營業利潤率環比提高，連續三個季度總計提高了約 300 個基點。

Our net income performance, also 26% of revenue, was supported from favorable investment income resulting from our increased cash balance. Now turning to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter -- sorry, we ended the third quarter with cash and short-term investments of $855 million, achieving operating cash flow of $67 million and converting 100% of our operating cash -- operating income into cash.

我們的淨利潤表現（也佔收入的 26%）得益於現金餘額增加所帶來的有利投資收入。現在轉向資產負債表。我們在第二季結束時——抱歉，在第三季結束時，我們擁有8.55 億美元的現金和短期投資，實現了6,700 萬美元的營運現金流，並將100% 的營運現金——營運收入轉化為現金。

Inventory ended the quarter at $308 million, down $12 million versus Q2 and achieving five quarters of sequential decline. We expect further inventory reduction of another $8 million to $10 million for the fourth quarter as we (technical difficulty)

本季末庫存為 3.08 億美元，比第二季減少 1,200 萬美元，連續五個季度下降。我們預計第四季庫存將進一步減少 800 萬至 1000 萬美元，因為我們（技術難度）

You may continue the conference, sir.

先生，您可以繼續會議了。

Okay. Well, thank you very much. Hopefully, everybody is still on the line and I will finish my prepared remarks and we'll go to questions. So in summary, we're aligned to several diverse end market drivers and we're well positioned to leverage our portfolio of inspection metrology and software to solve manufacturing customers high-value problems.

好的。嗯，非常感謝。希望大家都還在線，我將完成準備好的發言，然後我們將開始提問。總而言之，我們與多個不同的終端市場驅動因素保持一致，並且我們有能力利用我們的檢測計量和軟體組合來解決製造客戶的高價值問題。

Through close customer collaborations, we have many exciting new product launches such as 3D bump metrology, which we recently delivered to a leading memory manufacturer and void inspection for wafer bonding applications that we expect to ship this year.

透過與客戶的密切合作，我們推出了許多令人興奮的新產品，例如我們最近向一家領先的記憶體製造商交付的 3D 凸塊計量以及我們預計今年推出的晶圓鍵合應用的空隙檢測。

In addition to the organically developed technology, our recent tuck-ins further enhance our -- bolster our portfolio of synergistic technologies and the markets that we can pursue. Combining the outlook for the end markets we're serving, with our new product opportunities, we expect another solid year of growth in 2025.

除了有機開發的技術之外，我們最近的投入進一步增強了我們的協同技術組合和我們可以追求的市場。結合我們所服務的終端市場的前景以及我們的新產品機會，我們預計 2025 年將是另一個穩健成長的一年。

And that concludes our prepared remarks. Lisa, please open the call for questions from our covering analysts.

我們準備好的發言就到此結束。麗莎，請打開我們的分析師提問電話。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Brian Chin, Stifel.

布萊恩·欽，斯蒂菲爾。

Hi, there. Thanks for letting us ask a few questions. And also just FYI, Mike, I think where you picked up versus where Mark may have left off, I think there might have been a break there in terms of some of that content but just FYI.

你好呀。感謝您讓我們問幾個問題。另外僅供參考，麥克，我認為你在哪裡接續了馬克可能已經停止的地方，我認為其中的某些內容可能存在中斷，但僅供參考。

Anyways, back on script here. The -- so TSMC effectively ran out of space to expand its CoWoS footprint this year but the demand is very high. And so I was kind of curious, what do you currently see as timing for when that activity could pick up again?

無論如何，回到這裡的腳本。因此，台積電今年實際上已經沒有空間來擴大其 CoWoS 足跡，但需求非常高。所以我有點好奇，您目前認為該活動何時可以再次恢復的時機是什麼？

And when you combine that with the visibility you have on gate all around expansion, how confident are you that Onto revenue will show further improvement from existing levels moving into first quarter or first half of next year?

當您將其與您對全面擴張的可見性結合起來時，您對 Onto 收入在明年第一季或明年上半年將在現有水平基礎上進一步改善的信心有多大？

Good question. We're -- I'd say, highly confident. We're confident in revenues growing from here as we move into the first half of next year. And it's driven by not just gate all around but we also mentioned DRAM capacity expansions that we're seeing to support both the enterprise server starting to pick up a little bit but also the lack of capacity due to supporting all of the HBM growth. So we see both.

好問題。我想說，我們非常有信心。當我們進入明年上半年時，我們對收入的成長充滿信心。這不僅是由周圍的門驅動的，而且我們還提到了 DRAM 容量擴展，我們看到它既支援企業伺服器開始有所回升，又支援由於支援所有 HBM 成長而導致的容量缺乏。所以我們兩個都看到。

And as far as the TSMC -- or sorry, the yeah, what you mentioned, TSMC, the CoWoS expansion. They have been very aggressive at adding the capacity. We did mention on the prepared remarks that may or may not have made it out there that we expect the fourth quarter to see a fairly significant increase, while the -- yeah, while the HBM maybe is a little more muted in the fourth quarter from an AI packaging perspective.

至於台積電——或者抱歉，是的，你提到的台積電，CoWoS 擴張。他們在增加容量方面非常積極。我們確實在可能已發表或未發表的準備好的評論中提到，我們預計第四季度將出現相當顯著的增長，而 - 是的，雖然 HBM 在第四季度可能會更加平靜，但人工智能包裝視角。

So they're already starting to find space to add capacity and we expect that to be remain fairly strong in the first half.

因此，他們已經開始尋找增加產能的空間，我們預計上半年將保持相當強勁的勢頭。

Okay. Got it. And that's helpful. And so maybe a little bit earlier customer readiness from that standpoint to take equipment, it sounds like. And then in terms of that $10 million lithography delay was that customer driven, any other sort of color behind that? And when has that been rescheduled to?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。因此，從這個角度來看，客戶可能會更早準備好購買設備，聽起來像是這樣。那麼，就客戶驅動的 1000 萬美元光刻延遲而言，這背後還有其他類型的顏色嗎？那被重新安排到什麼時候了？

We're not clear on the reschedule. So that's still, being discussed. But yes, it was 100 -- it was customer driven based on their needs. The tools are ready to go.

我們還不清楚重新安排的時間。所以這仍在討論中。但是，是的，它是 100——這是客戶根據他們的需求驅動的。工具已準備就緒。

Okay. Got it. And maybe just kind of one more question in broader strokes. KLA last night on its earnings call, in addition to sort of being pretty upbeat on process control intensity, they're seeing at TSMC as that customer shifts from pilot to high-volume production. They also expressed a lot of confidence based on the high process control intensity that they would outgrow WFE in 2025.

好的。知道了。也許只是更廣泛的問題中的另一個問題。KLA 昨晚在其財報電話會議上，除了對流程控制強度相當樂觀之外，他們還看到台積電的客戶從試點轉向大批量生產。他們也對高過程控制強度表示非常有信心，認為他們將在 2025 年超越 WFE。

And so when you look at that again, that high process control intensity, both for gate all around expansions as well as CoWoS, advanced packaging, maybe HBM, I guess how much confidence do you have in n Onto's ability to outgrow WFE again in 2025 like you did in 2024?

因此，當您再次審視這一點時，那種高流程控制強度，無論是針對周圍的門擴展還是CoWoS、先進封裝，也許還有HBM，我想您對n Onto 在2025 年再次超越WFE 的能力有多少信心就像你在 2024 年所做的那樣？

Well, it depends on what you're expecting WFE to be. But if it's in this 5% to 10% range, which is where I think most of the consensus is landing, then we're highly confident in outperforming those numbers. For the same reasons and I did talk about increased process control intensity, especially in the area 2.5D logic or AI packaging, based on the complexity of the process as well as the needs for much better yields.

嗯，這取決於您對 WFE 的期望。但如果在 5% 到 10% 的範圍內（我認為大多數共識都在這個範圍內），那麼我們對超越這些數字非常有信心。出於同樣的原因，我確實談到了增加製程控制強度，特別是在 2.5D 邏輯或 AI 封裝領域，基於製程的複雜性以及對更高良率的需求。

I mean these are very expensive devices. And any yield issue across any of the products is going to drive a pretty expensive loss. So yeah, there's a lot of process control intensity. And yeah, we're seeing that as well. And they're still learning.

我的意思是這些都是非常昂貴的設備。任何產品的任何產量問題都將帶來相當昂貴的損失。是的，過程控制強度很大。是的，我們也看到了這一點。他們仍在學習。

So a lot of the capabilities of our Dragonfly with the many different sensors, we see the customers working with us to combine different sensors to find the solutions and metrologies that don't exist today in any other tool. So there's a lot of learning that's going on through our collaborations with the customers.

因此，我們的 Dragonfly 具有許多不同感測器的功能，我們看到客戶與我們合作，結合不同的感測器來找到當今任何其他工具中都不存在的解決方案和計量方法。因此，透過我們與客戶的合作，我們可以學到很多東西。

Thanks. I'll appreciate that. I'll re queue for any follow up. Thanks.

謝謝。我會很感激的。我將重新排隊等待後續行動。謝謝。

Vedvati Shrotre.

韋德瓦蒂·什羅特。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. So the first thing I wanted to ask about is, last quarter, you had talked about volume purchase agreements for gate all around nodes, I think they were roughly $120 million. Can you give us an idea or a sense of how that splits out between customers given that some of the leading-edge customers are now facing issues with their gate-all-around transition? So has your visibility on those VPAs changed? Is there any conversation changes where you may not get that whole $120 million?

你好。感謝您提出我的問題。所以我想問的第一件事是，上個季度，你們談到了節點周圍的門的批量購買協議，我認為大約是 1.2 億美元。鑑於一些領先客戶現在正面臨全面轉型的問題，您能否為我們介紹客戶之間的劃分方式？那麼您對這些 VPA 的了解是否改變了？是否有任何對話變化導致您可能無法拿到全部 1.2 億美元？

Not any major degree, no. In fact, we continue to work off some of that VPA, there's still quite a bit left for 2025 and our backlog continues to strengthen and look relatively good across the board. So no, I would say that, yes, there's certainly some movement by some customers but our position remains strong and growing or strengthening, I should say.

沒有任何專業學位，沒有。事實上，我們仍在繼續處理其中的一些 VPA，到 2025 年仍有相當多的剩餘，我們的積壓工作繼續加強，整體看起來相對較好。所以不，我想說，是的，一些客戶肯定會採取一些行動，但我應該說，我們的地位仍然強勁，並且不斷增長或加強。

Is it primarily because of the leading foundry customer being strong? Is that a way to think about it?

主要是因為領先的代工客戶實力雄厚嗎？這是一種思考方式嗎？

Yeah, that's one but we did mention that the number we talked about were two customers and both look still strong.

是的，這是其中之一，但我們確實提到我們談論的數字是兩個客戶，而且看起來仍然很強大。

Okay. Understood. So now maybe on changing tracks on the HBM kind of a ramp. What's the visibility you have on the HBM capacity additions? Like one of the things Teradyne pointed out on their call, they're seeing HBM capacity additions could be muted next year as in the growth for Teradyne's HBM revenues could be muted next year.

好的。明白了。所以現在可能是在 HBM 類似的坡道上改變軌道。您對 HBM 產能增加的了解如何？正如泰瑞達在電話會議上指出的一件事一樣，他們預計明年 HBM 產能的增加可能會放緩，因為明年泰瑞達 HBM 收入的成長可能會放緩。

What is your sense or visibility into how that HBM piece of the business goes into or the trajectory of that business into 2025?

您對該 HBM 業務的發展方向或該業務到 2025 年的發展軌跡有什麼看法或看法？

Well, I also mentioned that in my remarks around -- we're seeing a quite an increase or doubling in capacity from the 2.5D logic side. And last quarter, we talked about HBM increasing. So that alone would drive an increase -- an expected increase in HBM.

嗯，我在我的評論中也提到過——我們看到 2.5D 邏輯方面的容量顯著增加或翻倍。上個季度，我們談到了 HBM 的成長。因此，僅此一項就會推動 HBM 的成長——預期的成長。

And then, of course, you have an additional intensity, additional number of HBM around each GPU for the new, latest devices. That said, we also see, let's say, we're not seeing movement on HBM expansion yet. And so I echo that.

當然，對於最新的新設備，每個 GPU 周圍的 HBM 都會有額外的強度和數量。也就是說，我們也看到，我們還沒有看到 HBM 擴張的進展。所以我也同意這一點。

And that's what I mentioned in the prepared remarks is that it's not clear yet but we would expect that some kind of expansion would have to follow to support all of that new 2.5D logic that's coming on board. My guess is there could be still some conservatism by the players and still trying to understand who's going to win, what share from, let's say, the major driver, the major end customer.

這就是我在準備好的評論中提到的，目前還不清楚，但我們預計必須進行某種擴展以支援即將推出的所有新 2.5D 邏輯。我的猜測是，參與者可能仍然存在一些保守主義，並且仍然試圖了解誰會獲勝，從主要驅動力、主要最終客戶分享什麼。

And so they're careful with the capacity expansions. That's my guess but I don't know but we are seeing that muted behavior from HBM right now.

因此他們對產能擴張非常謹慎。這是我的猜測，但我不知道，但我們現在看到 HBM 的低調行為。

Got it. That's fair. And then the last one I had was on the power semiconductors, could you help us understand sort of the size of that revenue opportunity for you? And given that you're seeing a big downturn in the auto markets but your inspection revenues continue to be strong on the power side, it would be great if you could provide like what's the disparity there? What continues to drive your revenues versus we're seeing CapEx cuts across the board.

知道了。這很公平。我的最後一個是關於功率半導體的，您能幫助我們了解您的收入機會有多大嗎？鑑於您看到汽車市場大幅下滑，但您的檢查收入在電力方面仍然強勁，如果您能提供類似那裡的差距是多少，那就太好了？與我們看到的資本支出全面削減相比，什麼繼續推動您的收入。

Yeah. I mentioned it the last couple of quarters, it's all about driving yields and higher yields. And I mentioned there's some wafer transitions, whether it's silicon carbide going from 6 to 8 inch or GaN moving from 8 to 12 inch. That has an impact on yields and require -- sort of creates a requirement for additional process control or better process control capabilities. So we're seeing some of that.

是的。我在過去幾個季度提到過，這一切都是為了推動收益率和更高的收益率。我提到有一些晶圓轉變，無論是碳化矽從 6 英寸變為 8 英寸，還是 GaN 從 8 英寸變為 12 英寸。這對產量和需求有影響——某種程度上產生了對額外製程控製或更好的製程控制能力的需求。所以我們看到了其中的一些。

And then I think it's pretty well publicized that the yields in general are not that high. So customers tend to want to -- if they want to increase output or prepare for increased output, they can focus on yield instead of adding just capacity and throwing away. So that makes them more profitable when they do actually ramp.

然後我認為，眾所周知，整體收益率並不那麼高。因此，客戶往往希望——如果他們想增加產量或為增加產量做好準備，他們可以專注於產量，而不是僅僅增加產能並丟棄。因此，當他們真正實現成長時，這會讓他們更有利可圖。

So how should we think about the opportunity for you as in kind of the size of the business or any color there would be helpful.

因此，我們應該如何考慮您的機會，因為業務規模或任何顏色都會有幫助。

Well, we don't break it all down there, but it's becoming one of our top markets behind AI packaging in the specialty and advanced packaging market. So I think it is number two in that space.

好吧，我們不會將其全部分解，但它正在成為我們在專業和先進封裝市場中人工智慧封裝背後的頂級市場之一。所以我認為它是該領域的第二名。

Thank you. I'll get back in the queue.

謝謝。我會回到隊列中。

Edward Yang, Oppenheimer.

楊德昌，奧本海默。

Hi, Mark. Hi, Mike. Hi, Mark. Congrats on a great quarter. Just wanted to drill down a little bit deeper into your outlook into 2025. You're expecting continued growth there and outpacing WFE. But obviously, this year, you're looking for revenue to grow about 20% and that's well a multiple of how much WFE grew this year.

嗨，馬克。嗨，麥克。嗨，馬克。恭喜您度過了一個出色的季度。只是想更深入地了解您對 2025 年的展望。您預計該地區將持續成長並超過 WFE。但顯然，今年您希望營收成長 20% 左右，這是 WFE 今年成長幅度的好幾倍。

So thinking about all the different puts and takes, what are the things that give you confidence or less confidence? And will you -- can you size up again? Are there any reasons why growth should meaningfully accelerate or decelerate from your '24 run rate?

那麼，考慮一下所有不同的看跌期權和賣出期權，哪些因素會給您帶來信心或缺乏信心？能再調整一下尺寸嗎？有沒有任何原因可以解釋為什麼成長會比 24 年運行率顯著加速或減速？

I would say, since I said we'd grow, there would be a meaningful acceleration. And that would be in advanced nodes for sure. That's been bouncing along the bottom and now we've talked about gate-all-around opportunity expansions but we now also are starting to see and gain more confidence in DRAM, additional DRAM capacity and growth there, driving our advanced nodes.

我想說，既然我說過我們會成長，那麼就會有有意義的加速。這肯定是在高階節點中。它一直在底部反彈，現在我們已經討論了全方位的機會擴張，但我們現在也開始看到並獲得對 DRAM、額外 DRAM 容量和增長的更多信心，推動我們的先進節點。

So we see that staying, growing quite nicely. The AI packaging for sure, gate all around and the process control intensity and volume increases there is creating opportunities. We'll see what happens with the HBM. Does it stay muted or not? If not, I think there'll be some significant growth there. I don't see how it could stay as it is if the CoWoS essentially doubles. So we'll see but that's that.

所以我們看到這種情況留下來，並且成長得很好。人工智慧包裝肯定會無所不在，過程控制強度和數量的增加正在創造機會。我們將看看 HBM 會發生什麼。它是否保持靜音？如果沒有，我認為那裡將會有一些顯著的增長。如果 CoWoS 基本上翻倍，我不明白它如何能保持原樣。所以我們拭目以待，但僅此而已。

And then we talked about the power semi. And in there, I said we would at least sustain these record levels in the prepared remarks, which implies we would expect to exceed and set new record levels. So this would be a floor for us. And so that will be another growth driver for us as we look at 2025.

然後我們討論了功率半導體。在那裡，我說我們至少會在準備好的演講中維持這些創紀錄的水平，這意味著我們預計會超過並創下新的紀錄水平。所以這對我們來說是一個樓層。因此，展望 2025 年，這將成為我們的另一個成長動力。

And just to clarify when you say accelerate, I mean, do you mean accelerate off of a 20% revenue growth rate?

澄清一下，當你說加速時，我的意思是，你的意思是加速 20% 的收入成長率嗎？

Yeah. Good point. No, I'm not trying to imply we'd grow above 20%. No, so I should have used the word not accelerate.

是的。好點。不，我並不是想暗示我們的成長率會超過 20%。不，所以我應該使用“不加速”這個詞。

And one of your larger foundry customers signed an advanced packaging deal with an OSAT in Arizona earlier this month. Does this have any relevance to your order book? And again, can you speak to the broader ability of your customers to place tools at this point? It seems like things are loosening up a little bit. Is space still at bottleneck?

本月早些時候，您的一家較大代工廠客戶與亞利桑那州的 OSAT 簽署了一項先進封裝協議。這與您的訂單簿有任何關係嗎？再說一遍，您能否談談您的客戶此時放置工具的更廣泛能力？事情似乎有點鬆脫了。空間仍處於瓶頸嗎？

Things are loosening up. So there's new capacity coming up. But even signing that deal, there's time lines to transfer and to qualify and to bring in tools, et cetera, which some of it's in process. So -- but there's not an immediate like launch, right? So yeah, it's all part of the breaking of the current bottlenecks in the CoWoS capacity.

事情正在鬆動。因此，新的產能即將出現。但即使簽署了該協議，也有轉讓、資格審查和引進工具等的時間限制，其中一些正在進行中。那麼 - 但沒有立即發布，對吧？是的，這都是打破 CoWoS 容量當前瓶頸的一部分。

There's also actions being taken by that large customer as well, internal. And there's been discussions about the Intelex purchase. And in my prepared remarks, I did mention Q4, we see a nice big uptick from the gate-all-around -- sorry, for the 2.5D logic packaging and we expect that to maintain pretty healthy in the first half.

該大客戶也在內部採取行動。關於收購 Intelex 的討論也一直在進行。在我準備好的發言中，我確實提到了第四季度，我們看到了整個門的大幅上升 - 抱歉，對於 2.5D 邏輯封裝，我們預計上半年將保持相當健康的狀態。

And just a final question, maybe for Mark, I saw the SG&A ticked up a little bit sequentially and is that a good run rate going forward? Or was there any extra spending in there that impacted the quarter?

最後一個問題，也許對馬克來說，我看到 SG&A 連續上升了一點，這是否是一個良好的運行率？或者是否有任何額外支出影響了該季度？

Yeah, I mean, I would think our goal is to hold total OpEx in line or better than Q3. So I'd use that run rate from Q3 into Q4, in my prepared remarks which might have been, abbreviated. Our goal is to drive offsets to the cost of the tuck ins within Q4. So we can -- our goal is to stay at those levels for Q4 or better.

是的，我的意思是，我認為我們的目標是將總營運支出與第三季持平或更好。因此，在我準備好的評論中，我會使用從第三季到第四季的運行率，這可能是縮寫的。我們的目標是在第四季度內抵銷餐點成本。所以我們可以——我們的目標是在第四季度或更長時間保持在這些水平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

[Mayor Puppore, B. Riley Securities].

[Puppore 市長，B. Riley 證券]。

Yeah. Hi, there. I'm actually on for Craig Ellis. But you mentioned packaging pickup in the fourth quarter. Is that kind of related to the increased complexity needs as we move into this RDL based packaging, or is it more to do with just general volume increases? And if it's to do with this LDL -- RDL-based packaging increase, is that a trend that we can expect to continue as RDL picks up over the incumbent?

是的。你好呀。我實際上支持克雷格·埃利斯。但您提到第四季的包裝取貨。當我們進入這種基於 RDL 的封裝時，這是否與增加的複雜性需求有關，還是與一般體積的增加有關？如果這與基於 LDL 的 RDL 包裝的增加有關，隨著 RDL 的成長超過現有產品，我們是否可以預期這種趨勢會持續下去？

I think the complexity increases is from two things -- a couple of things. One is, yes, they're introducing some new processes that they've talked about. But two is, yields haven't been -- yields have room to improve. So they're also looking at areas that could be impacting yield and how can they measure, so you can't fix what you can't see. So how can we see -- help them see what is impacting yields so then they can make the adjustments and fix it.

我認為複雜性的增加來自兩件事——幾件事。一是，是的，他們正在引入一些他們已經討論過的新流程。但第二個問題是，收益率還沒有改善——收益率還有提高的空間。因此，他們也在研究可能影響產量的領域以及如何衡量，這樣你就無法修復你看不到的問題。那麼我們如何才能看到——幫助他們了解影響收益率的因素，以便他們能夠做出調整並修復它。

And that's -- that dynamic is also in play. And that's where I mentioned the incredible breadth of capability we have on the Dragonfly platform to bring to bear different types of sensors and metrologies and inspection in order to combine that data and see things that you wouldn't see on any single tool. So that provides new insights into the yield, opportunities to improve.

那就是——這種動力也在發揮作用。這就是我提到的 Dragonfly 平台令人難以置信的廣泛能力，可以支援不同類型的感測器、計量和檢查，以便結合這些數據並看到您在任何單一工具上看不到的東西。因此，這提供了對產量的新見解和改進的機會。

Okay. Yeah, right. No, that's a great answer. So I have a question on the flies, the Dragonfly and Firefly. Obviously, they're really capable tools in 2D metrology. But you've also pointed out before how they're incredibly capable in the 3D inspection space.

好的。是的，對。不，這是一個很好的答案。我有一個關於蒼蠅的問題，蜻蜓和螢火蟲。顯然，它們是二維計量中真正強大的工具。但您之前也指出過它們在 3D 檢測領域的強大能力。

Do you see that kind of picking up share? I know you mentioned one memory customer who wanted it for these 3D inspection processes. Do you see that 3D inspection aspect to these tools picking up?

您看到這種份額的增加嗎？我知道您提到一位記憶體客戶希望將其用於這些 3D 檢查流程。您是否認為這些工具的 3D 檢測功能有所增強？

So there's localized 3D capability, which is very powerful and we use that for high aspect ratio 3D, very high precision metrology. That is part of the 2D applications. What I was talking about was 3D bump metrology. And that's early -- that's still early stages. So it's too soon to predict how big or how much that could be.

因此，存在非常強大的本地化 3D 功能，我們將其用於高縱橫比 3D、超高精度計量。這是 2D 應用程式的一部分。我所說的是 3D 凸塊計量。現在還處於早期階段。因此，現在預測其規模有多大還為時過早。

It depends on adoption rate and how well we do in production. The tool we shipped is an evaluation tool. So they'll now based on the data exchanges we've had and all the wafers we've run for them in our facility, they now want to take the tool on site, prove it in production and then hopefully, we start to see revenue. And that's probably three to six to nine months on the outside type process.

這取決於採用率以及我們在生產中的表現。我們提供的工具是評估工具。因此，他們現在將根據我們已經進行的數據交換以及我們在我們的設施中為他們運行的所有晶圓，他們現在希望在現場使用該工具，在生產中證明它，然後希望我們開始看到收入。外部類型流程可能需要三到六到九個月的時間。

All right, got you. That's yeah, I hope that goes well. And then about those volume purchasing --

好吧，明白了。是的，我希望一切順利。然後關於那些批量採購--

And we expect -- sorry, we do -- I was going to say we do expect to ship additional tools in the fourth quarter to additional customers for evaluation.

我們預計——抱歉，我們確實——我想說的是，我們確實預計在第四季度向更多客戶提供更多工具進行評估。

And that's the evaluation on 3D.

這就是對3D的評價。

Yep.

是的。

Okay. Great. And again, about those volume purchase agreements, so we were talking about last quarter, I forgot exactly who asked this question but there was some talk about how these might convert into kind of larger agreements in the future. Is there any progress there in terms of kind of converting these initial agreements into perhaps larger partnerships going forward?

好的。偉大的。再說一遍，關於那些大量購買協議，所以我們談論的是上個季度，我忘記了是誰問了這個問題，但有一些討論是關於這些協議在未來如何轉化為更大的協議。在將這些初步協議轉變為未來可能更大的合作夥伴關係方面是否取得了任何進展？

I think what I might have said is that we would expect perhaps additional revenue through the year. And right now, they are still working on this. So I think it will -- they got to cut through this and then we'll see what happens in the second half of the year. But that's still my projection. I wouldn't -- if I was going to bias it, I'd bias it towards they're going to need some additional tools in the second half versus not.

我想我可能會說的是，我們預計今年可能會有額外的收入。目前，他們仍在為此努力。所以我認為他們必須解決這個問題，然後我們看看下半年會發生什麼。但這仍然是我的預測。我不會——如果我要偏向它，我會偏向他們在下半年需要一些額外的工具而不是不需要。

Okay. Thank you so much. Yeah, that's all I have. Thanks for talking to me.

好的。太感謝了。是的，這就是我所擁有的。謝謝你跟我說話。

My pleasure.

我的榮幸。

Charles Shi, Needham.

查爾斯·施，李約瑟。

Hey. So you guys got cut off the big chunk of the prepared remarks. We actually didn't hear. So maybe, Mark, can you kind of repeat what the Q4 guidance line by line, what's in your prepared remarks? Because I think it's kind of important, if you can repeat for us, that would be great. Hopefully, this doesn't count as a question.

嘿。所以你們準備好的發言的大部分內容都被打斷了。我們其實沒有聽到。馬克，您能否逐行重複第四季的指導意見，您準備好的演講內容是什麼？因為我認為這很重要，如果您能為我們重複一遍，那就太好了。希望這不算是一個問題。

No, thanks. Yeah. So I mean I'll just start out -- Charles, I'll just start out at inventory. So inventory ended the quarter at $308 million, down $12 million versus Q2 and achieving five quarters of essential decline -- sequential decline.

不，謝謝。是的。所以我的意思是我將從——查爾斯，我將從庫存開始。因此，本季末庫存為 3.08 億美元，比第二季減少 1,200 萬美元，並實現了五個季度的大幅下降——環比下降。

We expect further inventory reduction of another $8 million to $10 million for the fourth quarter as we project to be below $300 million as we exit 2024, which will be a $50 million reduction from our peak of 2023 inventory levels.

我們預計第四季度庫存將進一步減少 800 萬至 1000 萬美元，因為我們預計 2024 年結束時庫存將低於 3 億美元，這將比 2023 年庫存水準的峰值減少 5,000 萬美元。

As we look at the fourth quarter, we currently expect revenue for the fourth quarter to be between $253 million and $267 million. We expect gross margins will be 54% to 55%. With our inventory still above our target level, this is delaying our ability to cut in those supply chain cost reductions as we continue to prioritize the burn down of existing component levels.

展望第四季度，我們目前預計第四季度的營收將在 2.53 億至 2.67 億美元之間。我們預計毛利率將為54%至55%。由於我們的庫存仍高於目標水平，這延遲了我們削減供應鏈成本的能力，因為我們繼續優先考慮現有組件水準的消耗。

For operating expenses, we expect to be between $66 million to $68 million as we look to hold OpEx flat or better versus Q3 as we optimize R&D to minimize the cost impact of the tuck-ins we announced earlier. For the fourth quarter, we expect our effective tax rate to be between 15% to 16%.

對於營運支出，我們預計營運支出將在 6,600 萬美元至 6,800 萬美元之間，因為我們希望營運支出與第三季持平或更好，同時我們優化研發以盡量減少我們先前宣布的成本影響。對於第四季度，我們預計有效稅率在 15% 至 16% 之間。

We expect our diluted share count for the fourth quarter to be approximately 49.8 million shares. Based upon these assumptions, we anticipate our non-GAAP earnings for the fourth quarter to be between $1.33 and $1.48 per share. So Charles, you can ask your real question.

我們預計第四季稀釋後的股票數量約為 4,980 萬股。基於這些假設，我們預計第四季的非 GAAP 收益將在每股 1.33 美元至 1.48 美元之間。所以查爾斯，你可以問你真正的問題。

Yeah, thanks. So I'm trying to connect the dots here, Mike. The -- over the last quarter, let's say, three months, two out of the, let's say, four leading-edge customers you have, have had a pretty tough, I mean, news coverage, their struggles and the potential pressure on CapEx.

是的，謝謝。所以我試著把這些點連起來，麥克。在上個季度，比如說，三個月裡，您擁有的四個領先客戶中的兩個，我的意思是，新聞報道、他們的掙扎以及資本支出的潛在壓力。

But we know that your litho, which unfortunately has been quite a downside contributor to your quarterly earnings for the past 1 year, 1.5 years, has a lot of sales tied into those two customers. Am I connecting the dots right here?

但我們知道，不幸的是，你們的光刻技術在過去 1 年、1.5 年中對你們的季度收入造成了相當大的負面影響，但它有大量銷售額與這兩個客戶相關。我在這裡把這些點連結起來了嗎？

Because I wouldn't be thinking maybe some of the pushout or maybe looks sounds like it's more like a -- I mean, it's a bit delayed to a unknown date. It's really tied to these two customers. Is it anything to do with the CapEx cut that they could be going through.

因為我不會想到可能會有一些推出，或者看起來聽起來更像是——我的意思是，它有點推遲到未知的日期。它確實與這兩個客戶息息相關。這與他們可能經歷的資本支出削減有關嗎？

So I don't know which two customers, particularly you have in mind, it doesn't matter too much. I think if you look at the substrate market where this -- where the lithography tool plays, there was massive, let's say, bottlenecks that several of the enterprise server customers, manufacturers complained about publicly that they were supply constrained by lack of substrates.

所以我不知道哪兩位客戶，特別是你心目中的客戶，這並不重要。我認為，如果你看看光刻工具發揮作用的基板市場，你會發現存在巨大的瓶頸，一些企業伺服器客戶、製造商公開抱怨說，他們的供應因缺乏基板而受到限制。

And so there was a really, really aggressive expansion through 2022, maybe a little bit into 2023. And then as we all know, the markets really softened, especially for enterprise high-performance compute. And so NVIDIA is -- the AI is the big engine now and that's on a wafer basis.

因此，到 2022 年，甚至可能到 2023 年，我們都會進行非常非常積極的擴張。然後，眾所周知，市場確實疲軟了，尤其是企業高效能運算領域。NVIDIA 就是這樣——人工智慧現在是一個重要的引擎，而且是在晶圓的基礎上。

So that capacity -- that excess capacity is starting to be picked up and we see a little bit of pickup but it's still kind off of a kind of a low base. You can see that reflected in the comments I made about DRAM and the strength we're seeing now in DRAM and that's driven by some of the enterprise hyperscalers and some enterprise compute warming up. So I'm not sure if that answers your question but I'm not sure what you're trying to get at.

因此，產能過剩——過剩產能開始回升，我們看到了一點回升，但仍然是基數較低。您可以在我對 DRAM 的評論中看到這一點，以及我們現在看到的 DRAM 的實力，這是由一些企業超大規模企業和一些企業計算升溫所推動的。所以我不確定這是否能回答你的問題，但我不確定你想表達什麼。

Yeah. Okay. So it sounds like you think the pushout is probably more of the cyclical factor at play rather than anything that's structural. I mean those two customers are probably having more of a structural problem than a cyclical problem. That was what I'm trying to figure out.

是的。好的。所以聽起來你認為推出可能更多是週期性因素在起作用，而不是任何結構性因素。我的意思是，這兩個客戶遇到的問題可能更多是結構性問題，而不是週期性問題。這就是我想弄清楚的。

Yeah, I think it's more -- yeah.

是的，我認為更多的是——是的。

Yeah. So the other thing I do want to talk to you about really is the AI packaging business. I think last quarter, you talked about maybe second half this year, roughly 10% below the first half level, combining 2.5D and the HBM.

是的。所以我想和你們談論的另一件事實際上是人工智慧包裝業務。我想上個季度，您談到了今年下半年的情況，結合 2.5D 和 HBM，大約比上半年水準低 10%。

And based on what you said, it sounds like in Q3, HBM was okay, 2.5D was down a bit in Q4. 2.5D coming back up but HBM a little bit more muted. But do you still view that minus 10% half over half, the right number? Is it -- is there any upside or downside to that number so far based on what you see?

根據您所說，聽起來第三季 HBM 還不錯，第四季 2.5D 略有下降。2.5D 回來了，但 HBM 有點安靜。但你仍然認為負 10% 的一半是正確的數字嗎？根據您的觀察，到目前為止這個數字有什麼好處或壞處嗎？

Yeah. That's a good question. It was in my prepared remarks, which, of course, no one seemed to have heard. But it was -- I did say that it's cut in half. So things have -- if I had said 5% to 10%, it's about half of that now as far as the down goes. It's about half the decline that we originally projected.

是的。這是個好問題。這是我準備好的發言，當然，似乎沒有人聽到。但它是——我確實說過它被削減了一半。所以事情已經發生了——如果我說的是 5% 到 10%，那麼就下跌而言，現在大約是一半。這大約是我們最初預期的下降幅度的一半。

Okay. It's roughly 5% down compared with the first half level. And the first half '25 because allow me to finish this question. You kind of said that you expect that they will be higher than second half '24 level. Based on the order intake, based on the customer indications, do you still feel like that's about the right like first half '25 higher year than second half '24 but still have to wait and see if you can exceed the first half '24 level.

好的。與上半年水準相比下降約5%。25 年上半年，請容許我完成這個問題。你說你預計他們會高於 24 年下半年的水平。根據訂單量，根據客戶的指示，您是否仍然覺得這是正確的，就像25年上半年比24年下半年高，但仍然需要等待，看看是否可以超過24年上半年的水平。

This is for AI packaging specifically?

這是專門針對AI封裝的嗎？

AI packaging, yes.

人工智慧包裝，是的。

Yeah. I think for logic, it's going to be relatively healthy. So maybe at the same level, I'd have to double check. But the real question mark is the HBM piece. As we mentioned, we see that muted right now, though, when we look at the expansion on the 2.5D logic side, it's hard not to expect expansion on HBM to keep up.

是的。我認為就邏輯而言，它會相對健康。所以也許在同一水平上，我必須仔細檢查。但真正的問號是 HBM 部分。正如我們所提到的，我們現在看到這種趨勢已經減弱，但當我們觀察 2.5D 邏輯方面的擴展時，很難不期望 HBM 的擴展能夠跟上。

Got it. Thanks, Mike.

知道了。謝謝，麥克。

You're welcome Charles.

不客氣，查爾斯。

Mark Miller, The Benchmark Company.

馬克·米勒，基準公司。

Congrats on your another good quarter. I was just wondering if you can give us a feeling for what you're expecting in China and Korea next year.

恭喜您又一個美好的季度。我只是想知道您能否為我們介紹一下明年您對中國和韓國的期望。

Korea, we can say I mentioned DRAM and the DRAM growth. So you can guess that Korea would participate in that. China, we expect -- I mean, we're already relatively derisked in China. So we're around the, well, 10% to 15% range. And I would expect to be in that same range, maybe yeah, I would expect to be in that same range.

韓國，我們可以說我提到了 DRAM 和 DRAM 的成長。所以你可以猜測韓國會參與其中。我們預期中國——我的意思是，我們在中國的風險已經相對降低了。所以我們大約在 10% 到 15% 的範圍內。我希望在同一範圍內，也許是的，我希望在同一範圍內。

So 10% to 15% of sales from China next year.

因此明年 10% 到 15% 的銷售額來自中國。

Yep.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

David Duley, Steelhead Securities.

大衛杜利 (David Duley)，Steelhead 證券公司。

Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is on the NAND market. Your big Korean HBM customer also plays in that market. I think they're talking about their SSD business being up 20% sequentially and 430% year over year.

是的。感謝您提出我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於 NAND 市場的。您的韓國 HBM 大客戶也在該市場發揮作用。我認為他們正在談論他們的 SSD 業務環比增長 20%，同比增長 430%。

Lam's talking about a big upgrade cycle to move up in the number of layers. So we're not seeing wafer -- new wafer starts added but we're seeing a big upgrade cycle. And I was just wondering how you might participate in that.

Lam 正在談論一個大的升級週期，以提高層數。因此，我們沒有看到晶圓 - 新晶圓開始增加，但我們看到了一個大的升級週期。我只是想知道你如何參與其中。

We see NAND growing for us in 2025. And on a percentage basis, it would look very impressive. But it's still off of a very small base. So we don't see NAND recovering. So it's probably, as we mentioned a couple -- I think now two quarters ago, it's really the high level, high stack NAND to support AI devices and AI server farms, the high-speed data.

我們預計 NAND 將在 2025 年實現成長。從百分比來看，它看起來非常令人印象深刻。但它的基數仍然很小。所以我們看不到 NAND 恢復。因此，正如我們所提到的，我認為兩個季度前，它實際上是支援 AI 設備和 AI 伺服器群、高速資料的高水準、高堆疊 NAND。

So that's essentially what we see. As far as the high stack and then the more layers mean a lot more of our process control, not as much. So the capital intensity will -- there'll be a couple of extra steps in there and that's where the Aspect metrology comes into play. But we don't see any massive increases in, let's say, our OCD metrology as a result.

這基本上就是我們所看到的。就高堆疊而言，更多的層意味著我們的過程控制更多，但沒有那麼多。因此，資本強度將會——其中會有一些額外的步驟，這就是方面計量學發揮作用的地方。但我們並沒有看到我們的強迫症計量學因此而大幅增加。

Okay. And my second question is kind of around the high bandwidth memory market. I realize your customers aren't giving you a lot of visibility, I guess, into when they might expand capacity. But when you think about -- I think you've highlighted this, the number of chips per GPU is probably going to double with Blackwell versus Hopper. You got them stack -- going from stacking 8 to 12.

好的。我的第二個問題是關於高頻寬記憶體市場的。我猜想，您的客戶並沒有給您太多了解何時可能擴大產能。但當你想到時——我想你已經強調了這一點，Blackwell 與 Hopper 相比，每個 GPU 的晶片數量可能會增加一倍。你把它們堆疊起來——從堆疊 8 個到堆疊 12 個。

And you also have Micron ramping up and I think Samsung just announced yesterday or the day before that they're close to signing their agreement with NVIDIA as well. So I'm kind of curious why you wouldn't be much more positive about the growth in that end market given all the unit volume growth and more customers coming online? And is there -- but anyway, I just maybe you could elaborate a little bit more.

美光也正在加大力度，我認為三星昨天或前天剛剛宣布，他們也即將與 NVIDIA 簽署協議。所以我有點好奇，考慮到所有單位數量的增長和更多的線上客戶，為什麼您不會對該終端市場的成長更加積極？是嗎——但無論如何，我只是也許你可以詳細說明一下。

What makes me positive is orders. So I see all the activity and I like our position and we're trying to expand our position with the work we're doing on the 3D metrology. So going after more let's say, wallet share. But we're not seeing the orders yet. And as I mentioned, I think earlier, that there's some conservatism with these customers.

讓我積極的是訂單。所以我看到了所有的活動，我喜歡我們的地位，我們正在努力透過我們在 3D 計量方面所做的工作來擴大我們的地位。因此，我們要追求更多，比如說錢包份額。但我們還沒看到訂單。正如我之前提到的，我認為這些客戶有些保守。

If everyone is ramping and qualified, they may not know yet what share they're going to have and how much they want to expand in order to serve that share. I'm sure NVIDIA is working them all against each other. So I don't know -- that's just a guess.

如果每個人都在進步並且合格，他們可能還不知道他們將擁有什麼份額以及他們想要擴展多少以服務該份額。我確信 NVIDIA 正在讓它們互相對抗。所以我不知道——這只是一個猜測。

But yeah, when I start seeing orders, I'll get a lot more confident. What we can do is look at the model and say, hey, the capacity we see is not matching the demand that, that 2.5D upgrade or expansion is going to need. So something has to give.

但是，是的，當我開始看到訂單時，我會變得更有信心。我們能做的就是查看模型並說，嘿，我們看到的容量與 2.5D 升級或擴展所需的需求不符。所以必須付出一些東西。

And you keep highlighting how all the CoWoS capacity expansion should mean that HBM capacity expands. I think I understand what you're saying but could you just elaborate a little bit more on that?

您一直強調 CoWoS 產能擴張意味著 HBM 產能擴張。我想我明白你在說什麼，但你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Well, if the markets were a perfect equilibrium and we're going to double the 2.5D logic side and we're saying that for each 2.5D logic the amount of HBM around it is going to increase, let's say, a factor of two, like the number you used.

好吧，如果市場達到完美均衡，並且我們要將 2.5D 邏輯一側加倍，我們會說，對於每個 2.5D 邏輯，其周圍的 HBM 數量都會增加，比方說，增加兩倍，就像您使用的號碼一樣。

That's a 4x increase in DRAM or HBM that would be required. That's just if everything was in equilibrium. So now you have to say, okay, well, some capacity was added. Not everybody got cut into, let's say, the NVIDIA supply chain early on.

這意味著所需的 DRAM 或 HBM 增加了 4 倍。如果一切都處於平衡狀態的話。所以現在你必須說，好吧，好吧，增加了一些容量。比方說，並非所有人都很早就切入了 NVIDIA 供應鏈。

So who's going to win, how much excess capacity is there? I mean we try and model this out. But to us, no matter how we look at this, it looks like some capacity expansion is going to be required.

那麼誰會獲勝，產能過剩有多少？我的意思是我們嘗試對此進行建模。但對我們來說，無論我們如何看待這一點，似乎都需要進行一些產能擴張。

Yeah. Okay. And two final questions. What are your lead times for your HBM inspection tools? And the second question is a lot of this CoWoS capacity that's going to come online is not necessarily going to come online at TSMC.

是的。好的。還有最後兩個問題。您的 HBM 檢查工具的交貨時間是多少？第二個問題是，許多即將上線的 CoWoS 產能不一定會在台積電上線。

If you listened to ASE, they're ramping up as fast as they can as TSMC's partner to expand CoWoS. And there was another question earlier about Amkor but that's a couple of years out, I would think. Do you benefit from capacity expansions at the Taiwanese OSATs to the same degree that you would benefit from capacity expansions at TSMC for 2.5D packaging.

如果你聽過 ASE 的話，你會發現他們正在以最快的速度作為台積電的合作夥伴來擴展 CoWoS。早些時候還有一個關於 Amkor 的問題，但我想那是幾年後的事了。您從台灣 OSAT 產能擴充中受益的程度是否與台積電 2.5D 封裝產能擴充中受益的程度相同？

If they run the exact same process, then yes, that's yet to be determined. So we are benefiting, we are seeing engagement, we are getting orders. Obviously, not to the same degree right now as the leader that you mentioned.

如果他們運行完全相同的流程，那麼是的，這還有待確定。所以我們正在受益，我們看到了參與度，我們得到了訂單。顯然，現在的程度與你所提到的領導者不同。

But they're also nowhere near -- I mean they're not even ramping yet, right? They're just starting to ramp. So I would say that remains to be seen. But again, yields are yields it's hard to believe anyone is going to have better yields or better process than TSMC. So my guess is we'd see at least an equivalent process control intensity.

但它們也還遠遠沒有達到——我的意思是它們還沒有開始增長，對吧？他們才剛開始加速。所以我想說這還有待觀察。但同樣，良率就是良率，很難相信任何人都會比台積電擁有更好的良率或更好的製程。所以我的猜測是我們至少會看到同等的過程控制強度。

Okay. Thank you. Oh, and the lead time.

好的。謝謝。哦，還有交貨時間。

Lead time. Well, I was not going to answer that anyway. But I would say we're looking at three months or so. It's definitely increasing the volume has gone way up. But as we've always mentioned, we build to a forecast to the extent we have a good forecast data, we can adjust lead times. But things are ticking out a little bit because of the such strong demand we have right now.

交貨時間。好吧，無論如何我都不打算回答這個問題。但我想說，我們正在考慮三個月左右的時間。肯定是增加了音量。但正如我們一直提到的，我們在擁有良好的預測數據的情況下進行預測，我們可以調整交貨時間。但由於我們現在的需求如此強勁，情況有些不妙。

So with that kind of short lead time, obviously, if a customer came in and want a bunch of tools, you have the capacity to meet that order.

因此，在如此短的交貨時間內，顯然，如果客戶進來並想要一堆工具，您就有能力滿足該訂單。

Yeah. We work hard to make sure we do. I mean, no one expected us to have to double the capacity output for Dragonfly's this year and yet that's essentially what we've done. So yeah, we're -- the teams are outstanding at getting creative, reducing cycle times, leveraging our supply chain partners and making sure we serve our customers.

是的。我們努力確保我們做到了。我的意思是，沒有人期望我們今年必須將 Dragonfly 的產能產量增加一倍，但這基本上就是我們所做的。所以，是的，我們的團隊在發揮創造力、縮短週期時間、利用我們的供應鏈合作夥伴以及確保我們為客戶服務方面表現出色。

And as we've commented before, we have the capacity within our manufacturing to do that.

正如我們之前評論的那樣，我們的製造業有能力做到這一點。

Excellent you guys. We appreciate the excellent execution.

你們太棒了。我們讚賞優秀的執行力。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Chin, Stifel.

布萊恩·欽，斯蒂菲爾。

Hi, there. It wasn't really a question but what I was going to suggest or maybe just put out there is that I appreciate Mark repeating the complete fourth quarter guidance. And I was going to ask, Mike, if you had substantive commentary after Mark's guidance. I think we missed pretty much all that. So if there was something there, it might be worth repeating, if not then no bother. But I just wanted to throw that out there.

你好呀。這並不是一個真正的問題，但我要建議或只是提出的是，我感謝馬克重複完整的第四季度指導。我想問麥克，在馬克的指導之後你是否有實質的評論。我想我們幾乎錯過了這一切。因此，如果那裡有什麼東西，可能值得重複，如果沒有，那就不用麻煩了。但我只是想把它丟出去。

Sure I can.

我當然可以。

Yeah, Brian, we're just aligning to where on the -- his prepared remarks was cut before we picked up. Give us one.

是的，布萊恩，我們只是在調整——他準備好的講話在我們接聽之前被剪掉了。給我們一個。

Okay. So essentially, I had said that demand for process control and AI, packaging, gate-all-around, power semiconductors remains quite strong. Specifically with AI packaging, we see improvements over our prior second half 2024 projections and this I've already mentioned. So that, I'll skip.

好的。所以本質上，我說過對製程控制和人工智慧、封裝、全柵、功率半導體的需求仍然相當強勁。特別是在人工智慧包裝方面，我們看到比之前的 2024 年下半年預測有所改進，這一點我已經提到過。所以，我會跳過。

And I mentioned that's helping to offset that added growth in the AI packaging is offsetting the $10 million pushout that we had expected from the lithography. So in fact, we would have been a significant [beat] And then I mentioned that the market leader in the AI logic packaging recently announced a doubling of 2.5D logic capacity for next year, though not yet certain, we would expect to see orders supporting HBM memory to also improve to support this growth in logic, again, something we discussed.

我提到這有助於抵消人工智慧封裝的額外成長，從而抵消我們預計光刻技術將帶來 1000 萬美元的支出。所以事實上，我們本來會是一個重要的[擊敗] 然後我提到人工智能邏輯封裝的市場領導者最近宣布明年 2.5D 邏輯產能增加一倍，雖然還不確定，但我們預計會看到訂單支持HBM 記憶體也得到改進，以支援邏輯的成長，這也是我們討論過的。

And I mentioned that the growth in high-bandwidth memory has taken a meaningful amount of capacity away from standard DRAM as HBM requires roughly 3 times more wafer capacity. And this in turn, is contributing to an expansion of advanced DRAM to support a recovery in enterprise servers and investments by hyperscale customers, which we expect to see or benefit from more meaningfully in the first half of 2025.

我還提到，高頻寬記憶體的成長已經從標準 DRAM 中奪走了相當多的容量，因為 HBM 需要大約 3 倍的晶圓容量。這反過來又有助於先進 DRAM 的擴展，以支援企業伺服器和超大規模客戶投資的復甦，我們預計將在 2025 年上半年看到或從中受益更有意義。

Yeah. I think that's the central message. I tried to bring that all in when I answered some of the questions.

是的。我認為這是中心訊息。當我回答一些問題時，我試著把所有這些帶進來。

Okay. Yeah, I think you were able to incorporate some of that. No, I appreciate that. And maybe just one last question against that. I know you don't dictate your customers intake and demand and shipment timing. But to the extent that you kind of can have some, I guess, modulation here where kind of one customer is bigger, another customer maybe subsides for one quarter or two or whatever the case is.

好的。是的，我認為你能夠融入其中的一些內容。不，我很欣賞這一點。也許這只是最後一個問題。我知道您不會決定客戶的攝取量、需求和出貨時間。但我想，在某種程度上，你可以在這裡進行一些調整，其中一個客戶規模更大，另一個客戶可能會消退四分之一或兩個季度，或者無論情況如何。

I guess that alleviates sort of your manufacturing -- upward pressure on your manufacturing footprint. To the extent you may have HBM stronger in the same period, the CoWoS is strong. Do you have that ability to flex upwards in terms of higher output in manufacturing?

我想這會減輕你們的製造業──你們的製造業足跡的上升壓力。如果您在同一時期的 HBM 可能更強，那麼 CoWoS 就很強大。您是否有能力在製造業中提高產量？

Yeah, we absolutely do. I mean we're not even running full second shifts, let alone third shift. So that alone if we made no other improvements would allow us to significantly increase capacity. So we absolutely do. There's other things we're working on.

是的，我們絕對願意。我的意思是我們甚至沒有進行完整的第二班，更不用說第三班了。因此，如果我們不做其他改進，我們就可以顯著提高容量。所以我們絕對這樣做。我們還在做其他事情。

I mentioned working with supply chain partners. So we're moving some of the less skilled or more some of the subassemblies to partners where we can take that off and free up the floor and free up our higher trained technical people. So to focus on the more difficult integration. So yeah, we definitely have the ability to serve the customers and their needs as they grow.

我提到與供應鏈合作夥伴合作。因此，我們正在將一些技術水平較低或更多的部分組件轉移給合作夥伴，在那裡我們可以將其拆除，騰出空間，並釋放我們訓練有素的技術人員。所以要把重點放在更困難的整合上。所以，是的，我們絕對有能力隨著客戶的成長滿足他們的需求。

And maybe just to clarify one comment you made. I think you said backlog continues to strengthen. So it sounds like you're running a positive book-to-bill with orders ahead of revenue across the business.

也許只是為了澄清您發表的一項評論。我想你說積壓繼續增加。因此，聽起來您的訂單出貨比在整個業務中都處於積極狀態，訂單量領先於收入。

Well, we don't -- I don't have it exactly in front of me. I just mentioned the backlog has strengthened. So we don't really report on it. But I knew people would be concerned around or asking about the VPA and what does that mean? How is that being worked down?

嗯，我們不知道──我並沒有把它擺在我面前。我剛才提到積壓情況增加。所以我們並沒有真正報道它。但我知道人們會關心或詢問 VPA，這意味著什麼？事情進展如何？

And in fact, we continue to grow our backlog even as we work through that VPA. So to me, that was a comment just to indicate we still see strong demand and not much softening, at least in the areas we're focused on right now.

事實上，即使在我們完成 VPA 的同時，我們的積壓訂單仍在繼續增加。所以對我來說，這個評論只是表明我們仍然看到強勁的需求並且沒有太大的疲軟，至少在我們現在關注的領域是如此。

And I imagine even the fact that you have that VPA and HBM is a portion of that, I guess that does give you some comfort that some of that activity is still on the come next year?

我想即使您擁有 VPA 和 HBM 也是其中的一部分，我想這確實會給您帶來一些安慰，因為其中一些活動明年仍然會進行？

Yeah, for sure. I didn't say it would go to zero. HBM is still going to be there. I just think it could be even stronger based on the demand supply models we have between the 2.5D logic and the HBM. So hopefully, there's some upside we can talk about in future quarters.

是的，當然。我並沒有說它會歸零。HBM 仍然會在那裡。我只是認為根據 2.5D 邏輯和 HBM 之間的需求供給模型，它可能會更強。因此，希望我們可以在未來幾季討論一些好處。

Yep. Appreciate that. Thank you.

是的。很欣賞這一點。謝謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's Q&A session. I'd like now to turn the call back to Sydney Ho for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回悉尼何，請其發表補充或結束語。

Thank you. We will be participating in a number of investor conferences throughout this quarter. We look forward to seeing many of you there. A replay of the call today will be available on our website at approximately 7:30 Eastern time this evening. We'd like to thank you for your continued interest in Onto Innovation, Lisa, please conclude the call.

謝謝。本季我們將參加許多投資者會議。我們期待在那裡見到你們中的許多人。今天晚上東部時間 7:30 左右將在我們的網站上重播今天的電話會議。我們要感謝您對 Onto Innovation 的持續關注，Lisa，請結束通話。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your patience and your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的耐心等待與參與。您現在可以斷開連線。