Flagstar Financial Inc (NYCB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by.

您好，感謝您的支持。

My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫雷吉娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the New York Community Bancorp third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加紐約社區銀行 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Sal DiMartino, Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係總監薩爾·迪馬蒂諾 (Sal DiMartino)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Regina, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，雷吉娜，大家早安。

Thank you for joining the management team of New York Community Bancorp for today's call.

感謝您參加紐約社區銀行管理團隊今天的電話會議。

Today's discussion of the company's third quarter results will be led by Chairman, President and CEO, Joseph Otting; along with the company's Chief Financial Officer, Craig Gifford; and our Chief Credit Officer, Kris Gagnon.

今天對公司第三季業績的討論將由董事長、總裁兼執行長 Joseph Otting 主持；與公司財務長 Craig Gifford 一起；以及我們的首席信貸官 Kris Gagnon。

Before the discussion begins, I would like to remind everyone that our quarterly earnings press release and investor presentation can be found on the Investor Relations section of our company website at ir.mynycb.com.

在討論開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們的季度收益新聞稿和投資者簡報可以在我們公司網站 ir.mynycb.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Additionally, certain comments made today by the management team of New York Community Bancorp may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

此外，紐約社區銀行管理團隊今天發表的某些評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

Such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules.

我們可能做出的此類前瞻性聲明須遵守安全港規則。

Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in today's press release and presentation for more information about risks and uncertainties which may affect us.

請查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言，以了解有關可能影響我們的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。

Also, when discussing our results today, we will reference certain non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results.

此外，在今天討論我們的績效時，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則衡量標準，這些衡量標準從報告的績效中排除了某些項目。

Please refer to today's earnings release for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures.

請參閱今天的收益報告，以了解這些非公認會計準則指標的調節表。

And now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Otting.

現在我想把電話轉給奧廷先生。

Thank you, Sal, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter earnings call.

謝謝薩爾，大家早上好，歡迎參加我們第三季的財報電話會議。

We're actually pretty excited about the quarter and what we accomplished during the course of the quarter.

事實上，我們對本季以及我們在本季取得的成就感到非常興奮。

And today, we're going to review the third quarter results, an update of our three-year forecast and provide an overview on our key strategic initiatives.

今天，我們將回顧第三季的業績，更新我們的三年預測，並概述我們的關鍵策略舉措。

As I've mentioned in the past, it is important to (inaudible) the Board and management team that we remain engaged with the analyst community and investors on our progress as we continue to transition for the remainder of 2024, and 2025.

正如我過去提到的，對於董事會和管理團隊來說，在我們繼續在2024 年剩餘時間和2025 年進行過渡的過程中，與分析師群體和投資者就我們的進展保持接觸非常重要（聽不見清）。

During the third quarter, we continue to make significant progress on multiple fronts towards our goal of becoming a diversified regional bank, which focuses on consumer, small business, commercial banking, private banking and commercial real estate, and some of the actions that we've taken over the last three to five months, point is in that direction.

第三季度，我們繼續在多個方面取得重大進展，以實現成為一家多元化區域銀行的目標，重點關註消費者、小型企業、商業銀行、私人銀行和商業房地產，以及我們採取的一些行動在過去在的三到五個月裡，我們的工作重點就是朝這個方向發展。

Turning to Slide 3.

轉到投影片 3。

Under the first area, you will see that with our Board transformation complete, we are quickly building out our middle market commercial banking and specialized industry lending verticals with the addition of over 30 new hires in this space over the last 90 days.

在第一個區域中，您將看到，隨著我們董事會轉型的完成，我們正在快速建立中間市場商業銀行和專業行業貸款垂直領域，並在過去90 天內在該領域增加了30 多名新員工。

This includes seasonal lenders and the infrastructure to support them.

這包括季節性貸款人和支持他們的基礎設施。

In addition, we're excited.

此外，我們很興奮。

We also hired a new Chief Information Officer.

我們也聘請了一位新的資訊長。

His name is Chris Higgins.

他的名字叫克里斯·希金斯。

Chris previously worked at US Bank, and most recently was the CIO at MUFG.

Chris 先前曾在美國銀行工作，最近擔任三菱日聯金融集團 (MUFG) 的資訊長。

Chris brings tremendous amount of experience and will be a key asset and leader in the company as we go forward as well.

克里斯帶來了豐富的經驗，隨著我們的發展，他也將成為公司的關鍵資產和領導者。

One of the things I think we're most excited about is we continue to attract top-tier talent to the organization and virtually every -- every area of the company, and I'm very confident in the leadership team of the bank.

我認為我們最興奮的事情之一是我們繼續吸引頂尖人才加入公司以及公司的幾乎每個領域，我對銀行的領導團隊非常有信心。

As far as our executing on our operating plan, this quarter was the second consecutive quarter of really solid deposit growth, both in retail and in the private bank.

就我們執行營運計劃而言，本季是零售銀行和私人銀行存款連續第二季實現穩健成長。

In the private bank, we're seeing many customers returning to the bank after the disruption earlier this year, and we are winning new relationships.

在私人銀行，我們看到許多客戶在今年早些時候的中斷後返回銀行，並且我們正在贏得新的關係。

Moreover, the private banking deposits are more moderately priced, having weighted average cost in the low 2% range.

此外，私人銀行存款的定價更為適中，加權平均成本在2%的低水準範圍內。

Last quarter, I talked about the opportunity to exit another $2 billion to $5 billion in noncore businesses.

上個季度，我談到了退出另外 20 億至 50 億美元非核心業務的機會。

During the quarter, we made the strategic decision to exit certain non-relationship-based businesses and reduce our exposures under some large exposures where we syndicated our positions out within the C&I portfolio.

在本季度，我們做出了策略決定，退出某些非關係型業務，並減少我們在 C&I 投資組合中聯合頭寸的一些大型風險敞口。

As a result, the C&I loans declined $1.3 billion or 8% compared to the second quarter to the runoff of these loans.

因此，與第二季相比，工商業貸款減少了 13 億美元，即 8%。

Our pro forma CET1 ratio, including the impact of the sale of the MSR and third-party origination business is 11.4%, which compares very favorably to our peers.

我們的預期CET1比率（包括出售MSR和第三方發起業務的影響）為11.4%，與我們的同業相比非常有利。

And as a matter, we do anticipate at the end of this month, the first of November of closing the sale of the servicing MSR and third-party broker business to Mr. Cooper.

事實上，我們確實預計在本月底，即 11 月 1 日，完成向 Cooper 先生出售 MSR 服務和第三方經紀業務的交易。

Also, we made significant progress in reducing operating expenses through head count reductions and cost controls while still investing in key areas like our commercial, private banking and our risk infrastructure.

此外，我們透過減少員工數量和控製成本，在降低營運費用方面取得了重大進展，同時仍在商業、私人銀行和風險基礎設施等關鍵領域進行投資。

Last week, we announced a workforce reduction plan, which will show up in our fourth quarter results.

上週，我們宣布了一項裁員計劃，該計劃將體現在我們第四季的業績中。

And in addition to that, we've also taken out significant nonpersonnel costs as we focus the organization and brought talent in to perform functions within the organization.

除此之外，我們也削減了大量的非人員成本，因為我們專注於組織並引進人才在組織內履行職能。

And as Craig will speak to shortly, we are on track to meet our earnings forecast goals by year-end 2027.

正如克雷格很快將談到的那樣，我們預計在 2027 年底之前實現獲利預測目標。

Under improved funding profile, and these are one of the areas that when Craig and I first arrived, we talked about increasing the liquidity in the company.

在改善資金狀況的情況下，這些是當克雷格和我第一次到達時，我們談論增加公司流動性的領域之一。

Our liquidity remains extremely strong at over $41 billion, resulting in an approximate 300% coverage to uninsured deposits.

我們的流動性仍然非常強勁，超過 410 億美元，因此未保險存款的覆蓋率約為 300%。

We also utilized a portion of our excess liquidity during the quarter to pay down $9 billion in wholesale borrowings.

我們還在本季利用了部分過剩流動性來償還 90 億美元的批發借款。

And during the month of October, we paid down an additional $1 billion, which will help improve our funding costs over time.

10 月份，我們額外支付了 10 億美元，這將有助於隨著時間的推移改善我們的融資成本。

Finally, there is our focus on credit and risk management.

最後，我們關注信用和風險管理。

You'll get a chance to hear from Kris Gagnon, our new Chief Credit Officer.

您將有機會聽到我們新任首席信貸官 Kris Gagnon 的演講。

We have completed reviewing virtually the entire CRE portfolio.

我們幾乎已經完成了整個商業房地產投資組合的審查。

At the end of the third quarter, we were 97% complete compared to 75% in the second quarter.

第三季末，我們完成了 97%，而第二季為 75%。

We continue to proactively manage our [problem] loans and take appropriate action to derisk the loan portfolio, including taking significant charge-offs and continuing to build our allowance for credit losses.

我們繼續積極管理我們的[問題]貸款，並採取適當行動降低貸款組合的風險，包括進行大量沖銷並繼續建立我們的信貸損失準備金。

In addition, we continue to add both talent and resources in our risk management area as we build out our risk governance infrastructure.

此外，在建構風險治理基礎設施的過程中，我們持續在風險管理領域增加人才和資源。

Slide 4 highlights the five key takeaways for the third quarter.

投影片 4 重點介紹了第三季的五個關鍵要點。

The biggest takeaway from our perspective is that our multi-family borrowers continue to support their properties.

從我們的角度來看，最大的收穫是我們的多戶借款人繼續支持他們的房產。

During the first nine months of the year, approximately $2.1 billion of our multi-family reached their repricing date.

今年前 9 個月，我們的多戶住宅中約有 21 億美元的資產達到了重新定價日期。

And in most instances, these properties are repricing from the mid-3% to the mid-6s or higher.

在大多數情況下，這些房產的定價從 3% 中間調整到 6% 中間或更高。

Of these loans, over 90% have either paid off or at par or remain current.

在這些貸款中，超過 90% 已還清或以面額償還或保持流動狀態。

We also continued to reduce our CRE exposure.

我們也持續減少商業不動產風險敞口。

As Kris will discuss, we had another strong quarter in loan payoffs.

正如克里斯將討論的那樣，我們在貸款償還方面又經歷了一個強勁的季度。

As you know, one of our key strategic roles is to reduce our CRE portfolio to about $30 billion over time, and these payoffs certainly will help us towards that goal.

如您所知，我們的關鍵策略角色之一是隨著時間的推移將我們的商業房地產投資組合減少到約 300 億美元，這些回報肯定會幫助我們實現這一目標。

Deposit growth, as we've previously discussed in our prior earnings call, was another one of the highlights this quarter.

正如我們之前在先前的財報電話會議中討論的那樣，存款成長是本季的另一個亮點。

This growth, along with us paying down about 1/3 of our wholesale borrowings, resulted in a positive shift in our funding mix.

這種成長，加上我們償還了約 1/3 的批發借款，導致我們的融資結構發生了積極的轉變。

And lastly, I believe we are well positioned to successfully execute on our C&I strategy, which we've talked about trying to get significant growth in C&I, which I will discuss in the next two slides.

最後，我相信我們處於有利位置，可以成功執行我們的 C&I 策略，我們已經討論過如何努力實現 C&I 的顯著增長，我將在接下來的兩張幻燈片中討論這一點。

On Slide 5 highlights the senior management team we have assembled within the commercial and industrial space to drive our growth in this area.

第 5 張投影片重點介紹了我們在商業和工業領域組建的高階管理團隊，以推動我們在該領域的發展。

Ric Raffetto oversees this effort, and has assembled who I believe, as a long-time commercial banker myself, some of the best leadership in the industry, reflecting our commitment to this strategic area of growth.

里克·拉菲托(Ric Raffetto) 負責監督這項工作，並召集了一些業內最優秀的領導者，我相信，作為一名長期的商業銀行家，這體現了我們對這一戰略增長領域的承諾。

As you can see, we are hiring a proven group of individuals to execute on our business strategy.

正如您所看到的，我們正在聘請一批經過驗證的人員來執行我們的業務策略。

Slide 6 outlines our C&I strategy.

幻燈片 6 概述了我們的 C&I 策略。

We already have a good platform to build from with approximately $16 billion of C&I loans.

我們已經擁有一個良好的平台，可以利用大約 160 億美元的工商業貸款來建構。

Our goal is to get back to $30 billion in the next three to five years by expanding our existing platform across middle market, corporate banking and various specialized industries and building out our product capabilities and to drive fee income and relationship pricing.

我們的目標是在未來三到五年內透過將我們現有的平台擴展到中間市場、企業銀行業務和各種專業行業，並增強我們的產品能力並推動費用收入和關係定價，將收入恢復到300億美元。

Part of this buildout includes hiring more experienced bankers and support staff.

這項擴建的一部分包括僱用更有經驗的銀行家和支援人員。

To date, we have brought in more than 30 individuals and continue to attract top talent.

到目前為止，我們已引進了30多位名人才，並持續吸引頂尖人才。

I'm really pleased with how far the management team has brought the company over the last seven months.

我對管理團隊在過去七個月為公司帶來的進步感到非常滿意。

We are building a great company that will be reflected in our future financial results.

我們正在建立一家偉大的公司，這將反映在我們未來的財務表現中。

And I'll now turn it over to Craig, and I look forward to your questions.

我現在將其轉交給克雷格，期待您的提問。

Thank you, Joseph.

謝謝你，約瑟夫。

On Slide 7, you can see our financial balance sheet information.

在投影片 7 上，您可以看到我們的財務資產負債表資訊。

And you can see that our CET ratio on a pro forma basis for the sale of the MSR business, as Joseph mentioned, is 11.4%.

您可以看到，正如 Joseph 所提到的，我們在出售 MSR 業務時的 CET 比率為 11.4%。

We ended the quarter with an actual GAAP ratio of 10.8%.

本季末，我們的實際 GAAP 比率為 10.8%。

The 60 basis points increase on a pro forma basis reflects the lower RWAs from the sale of the mortgage transaction as well as the increase in capital that comes from the small gain that we expect to recognize on the transaction.

預計 60 個基點的成長反映了出售抵押貸款交易帶來的較低的 RWA，以及我們預計在交易中確認的小額收益所帶來的資本增加。

Joseph mentioned that we expect that transaction will close in the next couple of weeks.

約瑟夫提到，我們預計交易將在未來幾週內完成。

Adjusting for AOCI, our pro forma CET1 ratio is 10.7%.

根據 AOCI 進行調整，我們的預估 CET1 比率為 10.7%。

In general, we have lower securities unrealized losses than our peers.

整體而言，我們的證券未實現損失低於同業。

And you can see that our liquidity position is robust and continues to improve.

您可以看到我們的流動性狀況強勁且持續改善。

Slides 8 and 9 present an updated forecast out through 2027, and I'll cover some of the more relevant changes from prior information that we provided.

投影片 8 和 9 展示了到 2027 年的更新預測，我將介紹我們之前提供的資訊中的一些更相關的變更。

The most significant updates reflect an expectation that our nonaccrual loans will remain elevated through 2026, which Kris will discuss in more detail.

最重要的更新反映了我們的非應計貸款將在 2026 年之前保持在較高水準的預期，克里斯將對此進行更詳細的討論。

We also reflect an expectation of a higher FDIC assessment cost level through 2026, principally related to our criticized and classified loan levels.

我們也預計到 2026 年 FDIC 評估成本水準將會上升，這主要與我們受到批評和分類的貸款水準有關。

And there's a line switch between margin and fees related to the cost of subservicing deposits that go away this quarter, which I'll describe on the next page.

保證金和與本季度取消的存款服務成本相關的費用之間存在線路切換，我將在下一頁進行描述。

You can see that from a ratio perspective, the impact of those items does reflect an expectation from an EPS perspective of a reduced level of earnings in 2025, and 2026.

您可以看到，從比率的角度來看，這些項目的影響確實反映了從 EPS 角度來看 2025 年和 2026 年盈利水準下降的預期。

But as we get beyond the nonaccruals and the FDIC assessment increases, we would expect 2027 to be consistent with our previous expectations.

但隨著我們超越非應計項目以及 FDIC 評估的增加，我們預計 2027 年將與我們先前的預期一致。

Turning to Slide 9, from a margin perspective.

轉向投影片 9，從邊距的角度來看。

As I mentioned, we will have pressure on noninterest -- on interest income related to a higher level of nonaccruals out through 2026.

正如我所提到的，到 2026 年，我們將面臨非利息壓力——與較高的非應計費用相關的利息收入。

Additionally, in 2025, and 2026, there's roughly $150 million of a change in a remapping of interest expense on the custodial deposits, which reduces from prior forecast our net interest income and increases our noninterest income.

此外，到 2025 年和 2026 年，託管存款利息支出的重新映射將發生約 1.5 億美元的變化，這將比先前的預測減少我們的淨利息收入，並增加我們的非利息收入。

So again, it's just a line switch.

再說一遍，這只是一個線路開關。

If you think about margin, our margin does continue to improve beginning in '25 through '27 as a result principally of repricing of our commercial real estate and multi-family loan portfolio.

如果您考慮利潤率，我們的利潤率在 25 年到 27 年期間確實持續改善，這主要是由於我們的商業房地產和多戶型貸款組合的重新定價。

We do expect that our margin has bottomed in the third quarter.

我們確實預計我們的利潤率已在第三季觸底。

You'll see in our press release the margin percentage.

您將在我們的新聞稿中看到保證金百分比。

We expect a similar margin percentage in the fourth quarter and then increasing through 2025.

我們預計第四季度的利潤率將達到類似水平，並在 2025 年之前不斷增加。

Our provision for loan losses was impacted by a charge-off level net of recoveries of $240 million in the third quarter.

我們的貸款損失撥備受到第三季扣除回收 2.4 億美元的沖銷水準的影響。

We do have an expectation of a similar, although probably slightly less in the fourth quarter of charge-offs, and then tapering in 2025.

我們確實預計第四季度的沖銷會出現類似情況，儘管可能會略有減少，然後在 2025 年逐漸減少。

Our expectation for the full year of provision for loan losses for '24 is $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion.

我們預計 24 年全年貸款損失準備金為 11 億至 12 億美元。

That's an increase from our prior guidance and that is related to our experience on the charge-offs associated with multi-family loans.

這比我們之前的指導有所增加，這與我們在多戶貸款沖銷方面的經驗有關。

As Kris will point out, the multi-family portfolio continues to perform quite well, and the vast majority of loans that are in our non-accrual portfolio continue to be current on their payments.

正如克里斯將指出的那樣，多戶投資組合繼續表現良好，我們的非應計投資組合中的絕大多數貸款繼續按期還款。

From a non-interest perspective, non-interest expense perspective, we do expect a higher level of FDIC assessment, again, principally related to the criticized and classified portfolio.

從非利息角度、非利息支出角度來看，我們確實預期 FDIC 的評估水準會更高，這主要與受到批評和分類的投資組合有關。

That has an impact of about $100 million a year in '25 and '26.

這對 25 年和 26 年每年產生約 1 億美元的影響。

Incrementally, in the fourth quarter of this year, the mortgage transaction will close in the next couple of weeks, but we had previously anticipated that it would be completed by the end of September.

逐步地，今年第四季度，抵押貸款交易將在未來幾週內完成，但我們預計先前將在 9 月底完成。

Regulatory approvals delayed that a little bit and that will have a little bit of a negative impact on expenses for the fourth quarter.

監管部門的批准稍微推遲了一點，這將對第四季度的支出產生一些負面影響。

These reflect those changes.

這些反映了這些變化。

Slide 10 shows the success that we're having on the deposit gathering front.

投影片 10 顯示了我們在存款收集方面取得的成功。

As Joseph said earlier on the call, this is the second quarter of very solid deposit growth.

正如約瑟夫早些時候在電話會議上所說，這是存款成長非常穩健的第二季。

We continue to grow deposits in the retail channel up $2.5 billion or just under 8% this quarter.

本季我們零售通路的存款持續成長 25 億美元，增幅略低於 8%。

We also had a very good deposit growth quarter in the Private Bank, with deposits increasing $1.8 billion or 11% to nearly $18 billion as our bankers are successfully winning new relationships and many customers are returning dollars to the bank.

我們的私人銀行季度存款成長也非常好，存款增加了 18 億美元或 11%，達到近 180 億美元，因為我們的銀行家成功贏得了新的關係，而且許多客戶正在向銀行返還美元。

More importantly, the Private Banking deposits overall carry a lower cost -- lower cost of funds that are generally more moderately priced.

更重要的是，私人銀行存款整體成本較低——資金成本較低，價格通常更為適中。

And now I'll turn the call over to Kris Gagnon to discuss our asset quality and credit metrics.

現在我將把電話轉給 Kris Gagnon，討論我們的資產品質和信用指標。

Thank you, Craig.

謝謝你，克雷格。

If we turn to Slide 11.

如果我們翻到投影片 11。

We had just over $1 billion in commercial real estate payoffs during the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date amount to $2.6 billion.

第三季我們的商業房地產收益略高於 10 億美元，使年初至今的收益達到 26 億美元。

Importantly, these payoffs were at par, and approximately 34% of these payoffs were related to our substandard portfolio.

重要的是，這些回報是平價的，其中約 34% 與我們的不合格投資組合有關。

If we move to Slide 12.

如果我們轉到投影片 12。

This is an update of our annual CRE portfolio review.

這是我們年度商業房地產投資組合審查的更新。

Through the third quarter, we have reviewed 97% of the total CRE portfolio that includes 97% of the multi-family portfolio, 93% of the office and 94% of the non-office in the CRE.

截至第三季度，我們審查了 CRE 總投資組合的 97%，其中包括 CRE 中 97% 的多戶投資組合、93% 的辦公室和 94% 的非辦公室投資組合。

If we turn to Slide 13, this is an overview of the multi-family portfolio.

如果我們翻到投影片 13，這是多戶型投資組合的概述。

The key takeaways here are that year-to-date, we had $2.1 billion of multi-family loans repricing, of those loans, 34% paid off at par and the remainder stayed within the bank.

這裡的關鍵要點是，今年迄今為止，我們對 21 億美元的多戶貸款進行了重新定價，其中 34% 按面值償還，其餘部分留在銀行。

We'll talk about the repricing that we're facing going forward in the next slide.

我們將在下一張投影片中討論我們面臨的重新定價。

So Slide 14 provides a few more details on the multi-family portfolio.

因此，投影片 14 提供了更多有關多戶型投資組合的詳細資訊。

Approximately 3% of the portfolio is left to review.

大約 3% 的投資組合有待審查。

These are loans with an average balance of $3 million.

這些貸款的平均餘額為 300 萬美元。

So we're getting to the smaller end of the portfolio.

所以我們正在進入投資組合的較小一端。

All of the largest loans in the portfolio have been reviewed and nearly all of the loans with rent-regulated units between 50% and 100% of total units have been reviewed.

投資組合中所有最大的貸款均已接受審查，幾乎所有受租金管制的單位佔總單位數 50% 至 100% 的貸款均已接受審查。

Well, I want to spend a little bit of time though on the bottom right side of the portfolio.

好吧，我想花一點時間在投資組合的右下角。

As you can see, through 2027, we have a significant amount of loans that -- multi-family loans that are either going to reprice or mature.

正如您所看到的，到 2027 年，我們有大量貸款—多戶貸款將重新定價或到期。

And the important thing to understand here is that as these loans enter a window 18 months in advance, we reevaluate those loans at current market rates and their ability to service those loans -- the borrower to service those loans on the change terms.

這裡需要理解的重要一點是，當這些貸款提前 18 個月進入窗口時，我們會以當前市場利率重新評估這些貸款及其償還這些貸款的能力，即藉款人按變更條款償還這些貸款的能力。

This can lead to more severe classification of those loans if the result of the analysis is that the cash flow is either impaired or insufficient to service the loans appropriately.

如果分析結果顯示現金流量受損或不足以適當償還貸款，這可能會導致對這些貸款進行更嚴格的分類。

Moving on to the office portfolio on Slide 15.

接下來是投影片 15 上的辦公室組合。

We reviewed 93% of this portfolio.

我們審查了該投資組合的 93%。

Again, I think we've gotten through the largest loans.

我再次認為我們已經獲得了最大的貸款。

So the remaining 7% is generally smaller balance loans.

所以剩下的7%一般是餘額較小的貸款。

We've been very proactive and aggressive in managing this portfolio.

我們在管理這個投資組合方面一直非常積極主動。

We've taken significant charge-offs through the years with this portfolio because early on, the larger loans that we looked at, there were some idiosyncratic losses.

多年來，我們對該投資組合進行了大量沖銷，因為在早期，我們觀察到的較大貸款存在一些特殊損失。

I think we're largely through those issues.

我認為我們基本上已經解決了這些問題。

The office reserves associated with the remainder of the loans in the portfolio is 6%, which compares favorably alongside our peers.

與投資組合中剩餘貸款相關的辦公室準備金為 6%，與我們的同行相比處於有利地位。

Slide 16 is our non-office CRE portfolio, 94% of this portfolio has been reviewed.

投影片 16 是我們的非辦公室 CRE 組合，該組合的 94% 已經過審核。

Most loans that remain reviewed are again, smaller into the portfolio, which are non-New York City loans, and it's a very diversified portfolio.

大多數仍在審查的貸款在投資組合中的規模較小，屬於非紐約市貸款，而且是一個非常多元化的投資組合。

Slide 17 provides our allowance by loan category.

幻燈片 17 按貸款類別提供了我們的津貼。

Our allowance for credit losses up to 1.87% this quarter compared to 1.78% in the prior quarter.

本季我們的信貸損失準備金高達 1.87%，而上一季為 1.78%。

And then Slide 18 provides some further perspective around asset quality.

然後投影片 18 提供了有關資產品質的一些進一步的觀點。

We have been diligently identifying problem loans and working towards resolution.

我們一直在努力查明問題貸款並努力解決。

You can see that on this slide, this quarter, we had approximately $600 million increase in our non-accrual portfolio.

您可以在這張投影片上看到，本季我們的非應計投資組合增加了約 6 億美元。

Important to note that 68% of these non-accruals are actually performing as agreed to the terms of their credit agreement.

值得注意的是，68% 的非應計費用實際上是按照信貸協議條款履行的。

And this sort of relates back to the issue that we talked about before as we put some of these loans on non-accrual or substandard is related to future ability to pay as they enter those repricing windows.

這又回到了我們之前討論過的問題，因為我們將其中一些貸款列為非應計貸款或次級貸款，這與它們進入重新定價窗口時的未來支付能力有關。

So with that, Craig, I'll turn it back over to you.

那麼，克雷格，我會把它轉回給你。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Kris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

Slide 19 depicts our liquidity profile.

投影片 19 描述了我們的流動性狀況。

Overall, our liquidity remains quite strong due to the success of our deposit gathering efforts over the last two quarters.

總體而言，由於過去兩個季度我們的存款收集工作取得了成功，我們的流動性仍然相當強勁。

We have $41.5 billion of total liquidity, which represents about 300% of our uninsured deposits

我們擁有 415 億美元的總流動資金，約占我們未保險存款的 300%

.

。

Slide 20 summarizes our third quarter financials.

投影片 20 總結了我們第三季的財務狀況。

And as I mentioned, the net loss attributable to common stockholders was $289 million or $0.79 per share, principally driven by the provisions and expense for the quarter.

正如我所提到的，普通股股東應佔的淨虧損為 2.89 億美元，即每股 0.79 美元，主要是由本季的撥備和費用造成的。

It was also related to a lower level of non-interest income due to the sale of the mortgage warehouse portfolio, which closed in July.

這也與出售 7 月關閉的抵押倉庫投資組合而導致的非利息收入水準較低有關。

Joseph, I'll turn the call back to you.

約瑟夫，我會把電話轉給你。

Okay Thanks, Kris, and Craig.

好的，謝謝克里斯和克雷格。

One final slide before we'll turn it over for questions.

最後一張投影片，然後我們將其移交提問。

On Slide 21, we show New York CB's investment profile.

在投影片 21 上，我們展示了紐約 CB 的投資概況。

We currently trade at 63% of tangible book value.

我們目前的交易價格為有形帳面價值的 63%。

We think being able to move forward and deal with our credit issues and then the emergence of our C&I strategy should help close that gap.

我們認為，能夠繼續前進並解決我們的信用問題，然後我們的 C&I 策略的出現應該有助於縮小這一差距。

This compares to 179% for Category four banks and about 155% for regional banks.

相較之下，四類銀行的比例為 179%，區域銀行的比例約為 155%。

So a significant upside in the company as we execute on the business plan.

因此，當我們執行業務計劃時，公司將獲得顯著的優勢。

I would also like to thank a number of you recommended and suggested that we convert our holding company name.

我還要感謝你們推薦和建議我們轉換我們的控股公司名稱的一些人。

We chose Flagstar Financial with the symbol we'll begin trading on Monday, FLG.

我們選擇了 Flagstar Financial，其符號為我們將於週一開始交易，FLG。

This aligns the overall organization going forward with our Flagstar brand and the branches, which between November and March of last year -- November to March of this year, we rebranded all the branches with the consistent brands, consistent look and consistent theme now all across our retail banking franchise, which all of you know is California, Arizona, Florida, New York, New Jersey and then around Michigan, Great Lake.

這使整個組織與我們的Flagstar 品牌和分支機構保持一致，在去年11 月至3 月期間以及今年11 月至3 月，我們對所有分支機構進行了重新命名，現在所有分支機構都具有一致的品牌、一致的外觀和一致的主題我們的零售銀行業務專營權，你們都知道是加利福尼亞州、亞利桑那州、佛羅裡達州、紐約州、新澤西州，然後是密西根州、五大湖地區。

So a really solid retail banking brand.

這是一個真正可靠的零售銀行品牌。

So finally, I'd like to thank each of our teammates for their dedication and determination and their commitment to our customers.

最後，我要感謝我們每一位團隊成員的奉獻精神、決心以及對客戶的承諾。

And now we'd be happy to answer any questions you may have.

現在我們很樂意回答您的任何問題。

Operator, you can open the line for questions.

接線員，您可以開通提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指令）Manan Gosalia，摩根士丹利。

Appreciate all the color on the moving pieces between the old and new guide.

欣賞新舊指南之間移動部件上的所有顏色。

Was any of the change from the change in the forward rate curve?

遠期利率曲線的變動是否有變動？

Can you talk about how you think the balance sheet is positioned for rate cuts here?

您能否談談您認為資產負債表在降息方面的定位如何？

Yes.

是的。

So we're slightly liability-sensitive.

所以我們對責任有點敏感。

We will benefit from -- a bit from lower rates.

我們將受益於較低的利率。

We do have quite a bit of very short-term assets in our cash and securities portfolio.

我們的現金和證券投資組合中確實有相當多的短期資產。

So we'll certainly benefit from a deposit side perspective, but there will be pressure on the on-balance sheet liquidity aspect of the portfolio.

因此，我們肯定會從存款方面受益，但投資組合的表內流動性方面將面臨壓力。

I would say though that we've been very successful in bringing down our deposit rates in the last six weeks.

我想說的是，過去六週我們在降低存款利率方面非常成功。

So on our more liabilities, our more rate-sensitive deposits, our savings portfolios and our CDs, we actually have a higher than 100 beta.

因此，就我們更多的負債、對利率更敏感的存款、我們的儲蓄投資組合和我們的存款證而言，我們的貝塔值實際上高於 100。

We brought down those rates between 60 basis points and 75 basis points compared to the Federal Reserve move.

與聯準會的舉措相比，我們將利率下調了 60 個基點至 75 個基點。

So we've been very successful in tapering that.

所以我們在減少這一點方面非常成功。

The impact of that in the fourth quarter will be a lower level of deposit gathering on the retail bank.

第四季的影響將是零售銀行的存款聚集程度較低。

I would expect I think that will be flat to slightly positive from a retail deposit gathering and -- but I still think we'll see strength in the Private Bank, probably not as strong as the third quarter was, but we'll still see deposit growth in the Private Bank in the fourth quarter.

我預計零售存款聚集將持平至略有積極，但我仍然認為我們會看到私人銀行的實力，可能不如第三季那麼強勁，但我們仍然會看到第四季度私人銀行存款成長。

Got it.

知道了。

And if I can have a quick follow-up.

如果我能快速跟進的話。

So it seems like the main difference between the two guides between last quarter and this quarter is the non-accrual loans.

因此，上季度和本季兩個指南之間的主要區別似乎是非應計貸款。

So what's causing those nonaccrual loans to remain on the balance sheet for longer?

那麼，是什麼原因導致這些非應計貸款在資產負債表上停留的時間更長呢？

Is it that you'd rather not sell them given the pricing being offered in the open market?

鑑於公開市場提供的定價，您是否寧願不出售它們？

And would you consider selling them down the line?

你會考慮把它們賣掉嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

We're exploring all opportunities to reduce our nonaccrual portfolio.

我們正在探索所有減少非應計投資組合的機會。

We are working with borrowers to work them out.

我們正在與借款人合作解決這些問題。

We were looking at discounted payoffs.

我們正在考慮貼現收益。

We will explore the market to see if there's an opportunity to sell.

我們將探索市場，看看是否有出售的機會。

In some cases, so far, as we've looked at that, we think that we can do better working them out ourselves as opposed to selling them.

在某些情況下，到目前為止，正如我們所看到的，我們認為我們可以更好地自己解決它們，而不是出售它們。

So those are some of the avenues that we're taking to reduce the portfolio.

這些是我們正在採取的減少投資組合的一些方法。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

I just wanted to follow up on the credit comments.

我只是想跟進信用評論。

So the 68% of loans, the non-accrual and the maturity profile that you showed through '26, '27, I'm just trying to get to -- it looks like your provisioning outlook did not change quarter-over-quarter as you talk -- looking to '25, '26.

因此，您在 26 年和 27 年期間展示的 68% 的貸款、非應計貸款和到期情況，我只是想了解一下 - 看起來您的撥備前景並沒有按季度變化你說話——期待' 25、'26。

So are we to conclude that at this point, credit quality risk tied to repricing, all of that, even for loans that are coming up for repricing in '27 has been ring-fenced either through reserves?

那麼，我們是否可以得出這樣的結論：在這一點上，與重新定價相關的信貸品質風險，所有這些，即使是 27 年重新定價的貸款，也已經通過準備金受到了圍堵？

Or these loans have been already put into nonaccrual?

還是這些貸款已經計入非應計利息？

So what I'm getting to is the risk of negative (inaudible) on credit from here should be fairly limited?

那我要說的是，這裡的信用負數（聽不清楚）的風險應該相當有限？

And talk to us in terms of the rate sensitivity, like the five-year being 20 basis points or 30 basis points higher or lower from where it is today because that have a meaningful impact in that analysis.

並與我們討論利率敏感性，例如五年期利率比現在高或低 20 個基點或 30 個基點，因為這會對分析產生有意義的影響。

Ebrahim, so the rate profile is interesting, right?

Ebrahim，所以利率概況很有趣，對嗎？

Because at the end of the third quarter, rates had come down at the five-year point, roughly 90 basis points.

因為在第三季末，五年期利率下降了大約 90 個基點。

But since then, they've backed up about 35 basis points to 40 basis points.

但自那以後，他們已經回升了約 35 個基點至 40 個基點。

So we were cautious in reflecting the improvement in rates in the reserving, recognizing that it can be transient.

因此，我們在反映準備金率的改善時持謹慎態度，因為我們認識到這可能是暫時的。

But I will say that the decrease in rate levels that we've seen is quite favorable to the portfolio in our credit modeling, probably about a $200 million improvement in the credit risk profile as a result of the improvement in rates.

但我要說的是，我們所看到的利率水準的下降對我們信用模型中的投資組合非常有利，由於利率的改善，信用風險狀況可能會改善約 2 億美元。

And I would expect a similar level of that as rates continue -- if rates continue to decline at the intermediate term.

如果利率在中期繼續下降，我預計隨著利率的持續，也會出現類似的水平。

But importantly, it's that intermediate-term point that is particularly relevant for the repricing of these loans.

但重要的是，這個中期點與這些貸款的重新定價特別相關。

As Kris mentioned, if you look out into the projections from a provisioning standpoint, I do expect that the provisioning for the '25, '26 time frame is still relatively in line.

正如 Kris 所提到的，如果你從供應的角度來看預測，我確實預期 25、26 年時間範圍內的供應仍然相對一致。

I think that we'll see a higher level of charge-offs in the first quarter and tapering through the rest of the year.

我認為我們將在第一季看到更高水準的沖銷，並在今年剩餘時間內逐漸減少。

Kris pointed out on Slide 14, the maturity profile or the reset profile of the portfolio.

Kris 在投影片 14 上指出了投資組合的成熟度概況或重置概況。

So we are effectively reflecting in our criticized and classified loans, those loans that we would expect to reprice out through the middle of 2026.

因此，我們在受到批評和分類的貸款中有效地反映了這些貸款，我們預計這些貸款將在 2026 年中期重新定價。

So that's 18 months from now.

那是從現在起 18 個月後的事了。

And if you look at that chart, then you still have a reset profile out beyond that, which would be reflected as we then begin to regrade those loans as they move into that repricing window that we analyze from a loan grading perspective.

如果您查看該圖表，那麼您仍然有一個除此之外的重置配置文件，這將在我們開始對這些貸款進行重新評級時反映出來，因為它們進入了我們從貸款評級角度進行分析的重新定價視窗。

But we feel like from a provisioning perspective, the guide reflects the impact of that.

但我們覺得從供應的角度來看，指南反映了這一影響。

That is helpful.

這很有幫助。

And just one follow-up question.

還有一個後續問題。

Maybe Joseph, for you.

也許約瑟夫，適合你。

I think you talked about where the stock rate from relative to tangible book.

我想你談到了相對於有形帳面的股票利率。

I think the concern from an investor standpoint is just the lack of visibility.

我認為從投資人的角度來看，擔憂只是缺乏可見性。

Like we've seen a lot of senior hires that you've announced, but we saw the big change in '25, '26 earnings outlook relative to what you expected last quarter.

就像我們看到您宣布的許多高級員工招聘一樣，但我們看到 25 年、26 年盈利前景相對於您上季度的預期發生了巨大變化。

Appreciate '27 is the same.

欣賞'27也是一樣。

Just talk to us in terms of how we can measure all the senior hires that you're bringing on to the bank.

只需與我們討論如何衡量您為銀行聘用的所有高級員工。

Banking is a tough business, even to own a 10% ROE.

銀行業是一個艱難的行業，即使擁有 10% 的 ROE。

So I'm just trying to understand is the goal, and should we start seeing proof points of these teams have come and we should see accelerated low-cost deposit growth, loan growth as we look even starting fourth quarter '25?

所以我只是想了解目標是什麼，我們是否應該開始看到這些團隊的證據已經出現，我們應該看到低成本存款加速成長，貸款成長，就像我們從 25 年第四季開始一樣？

And what's the best way to measure that we are moving in the right direction in that regard?

衡量我們在這方面是否朝著正確方向前進的最佳方法是什麼？

Ebrahim, I think it first starts with like how are we rebalancing the balance sheet and our goals there.

易卜拉欣，我認為首先是我們如何重新平衡資產負債表和我們的目標。

We're sitting somewhere slightly south of $45 billion in commercial real estate.

我們的商業房地產價值略低於 450 億美元。

And our goal is to get that into the low $30 billion range.

我們的目標是將其控制在 300 億美元的範圍內。

And so we're doing that through a combination of payoffs, which are averaging somewhere around -- since we've arrived roughly $1 billion a quarter.

因此，我們透過綜合回報來做到這一點，這些回報的平均水平約為 - 因為我們每個季度的收入約為 10 億美元。

So obviously, that's $4 billion in

顯然，這是 40 億美元

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

So we naturally get there in a 3-year period.

所以我們自然會在三年內實現這個目標。

So that rebalancing is occurring with going in our C&I book today, which is about $16 billion.

因此，今天我們的 C&I 帳簿中正在發生重新平衡，該帳簿價值約為 160 億美元。

In 2027, we would like to get that into the $30 billion range is our goal.

到 2027 年，我們的目標是使其達到 300 億美元的範圍。

And so most of us who have joined this company have spent the vast majority of our career in the C&I kind of space and grew up in it.

因此，我們大多數加入這家公司的人都在 C&I 類領域度過了職業生涯的大部分時間，並在其中成長。

And so we've gone out and have added really talented people who are highly experienced, who have operated in this space for, some of us, 25 to 35 years.

因此，我們已經走出去，招募了經驗豐富的真正有才華的人，我們中的一些人已經在這個領域工作了 25 到 35 年。

So we bring those relationships and direct involvement with CEOs and CFOs in companies that we bank.

因此，我們與我們所銀行的公司的執行長和財務長建立了這些關係並直接參與。

So to answer your question, we do see, right away, the ability as these people come on to the organization the opportunity to do out rebound solicitation into relationships.

因此，為了回答你的問題，我們確實立即看到，當這些人進入組織時，他們有機會在關係中反彈懇求。

And the other avenue is if you look at the makeup of our C&I portfolio, very limited of that is commercial and corporate banking and the type of people that we're hiring are commercial and corporate bankers.

另一個途徑是，如果你看看我們的工商業投資組合的組成，你會發現其中非常有限的是商業和企業銀行業務，而我們僱用的人員類型是商業和企業銀行家。

So it isn't like we're going into these syndicated credits or large one or two bank credits where we have a lot of exposure in that area.

因此，我們並不是要進入這些銀團信貸或一兩家大型銀行信貸，因為我們在該領域擁有大量曝險。

We are somewhat of a new entrant into that segment of the market, which should present us some pretty significant growth opportunities.

我們在某種程度上是該市場領域的新進者，這應該會為我們帶來一些相當重要的成長機會。

The balance sheet projections, if you think about the portfolio that reprices and resets and the experience that we've had in repayments, if you look out on a projected basis, something between $750 million and $1 billion of commercial real estate and multi-family runoff per quarter over the next two years.

資產負債表預測，如果你考慮重新定價和重置的投資組合以及我們在還款方面的經驗，如果你在預測的基礎上進行觀察，商業房地產和多戶住宅的價值在7.5 億到10 億美元之間未來兩年每季的徑流。

And as we get into late 2025, a pretty -- we're projecting a pretty similar level increases in commercial banking and C&I growth from a loan perspective.

當我們進入 2025 年底時，從貸款的角度來看，我們預計商業銀行和 C&I 成長將出現非常相似的成長水準。

We're also expecting that those bankers bring in deposits and that will increase our deposit growth starting in late 2025, pretty significantly through '26 and into '27.

我們也預計這些銀行家會帶來存款，這將從 2025 年底開始增加我們的存款成長，從 2026 年到 27 年將顯著增加。

Roughly, think about it as roughly a two-for-one basis loans for deposits.

粗略地說，可以將其視為存款二比一的基礎貸款。

So we're expecting that, that commercial banking group does bring in deposits that are supportive in funding that loan profile.

因此，我們預計該商業銀行集團確實會帶來支持為貸款狀況提供資金的存款。

Dave Rochester, Compass Point.

戴夫·羅徹斯特，羅盤點。

-- If I missed this. earlier, but I heard you mentioned the $2 billion to $5 billion of assets that you had assessed as noncore.

——如果我錯過了這個。早些時候，但我聽說您提到了您評估為非核心的 20 億至 50 億美元資產。

You talked about that last quarter as well.

您上個季度也談到了這一點。

I was just wondering where you guys stand on that now, just given the runoff that we've seen on the C&I front?

我只是想知道，考慮到我們在 C&I 方面看到的決勝情況，你們現在對此有何立場？

And then are you still looking at the business and trying to analyze for core/noncore and could that increase from here?

然後，您是否仍在關注業務並嘗試分析核心/非核心，是否可以從這裡開始增加？

How are you guys thinking about that?

你們覺得怎麼樣？

.

。

Yeah.

是的。

We've done virtually a business review of all the businesses now in the company and are in the market generating new C&I loans while some of those had been tabled prior to our arrival.

我們實際上已經對公司現有的所有業務進行了業務審查，並且正在市場上產生新的工商業貸款，而其中一些貸款在我們到達之前就已提交。

But we are -- the viewpoint overall is that the businesses that we have today, we like.

但我們整體的觀點是，我們今天擁有的業務是我們喜歡的。

There are certain aspects of some of the businesses where we wanted to reduce our exposure, either because where we are in the cycle in relationship to that industry or our viewpoint was in some of the hold levels in the company were larger than what our comfort level was.

我們希望在某些業務的某些方面減少我們的風險敞口，要么是因為我們處於與該行業相關的周期中，要么是因為我們認為公司的某些持有水平高於我們的舒適水平曾是。

And so we brought the whole levels down and then brought participants in for those credits.

因此，我們降低了整體水平，然後讓參與者獲得這些積分。

So I'd say it's a combination of reevaluating where we are in the cycles for certain industries and then the other is reducing hold levels.

所以我想說，這是重新評估我們在某些​​行業的周期中的位置，然後另一個是降低持有水準。

The bank historically took very (inaudible) hold positions in credit and we just favor a more diversified portfolio.

該銀行在信貸領域歷來持有非常（聽不清楚）的持有頭寸，我們只是傾向於更多元化的投資組合。

Great.

偉大的。

And where is the $2 billion to $5 billion now?

那20億到50億美元現在在哪裡？

Is that [1 to 3], just given some of the runoff?

這是 [1 到 3]，只是給了一些徑流嗎？

Or where do you see it today?

或今天你在哪裡看到它？

We're not anticipating any significant portfolio repositioning in the near term at this point.

目前，我們預計短期內不會出現任何重大的投資組合重新定位。

I could see a bit more of the rescaling on some credits, but I think it will be less significant than it was in the third quarter.

我可以看到一些積分的調整增加，但我認為這將不如第三季那麼重要。

Mark Fitzgibbon, Piper Sandler.

馬克·菲茨吉本，派珀·桑德勒。

This quarter, you made some pretty sizable changes to your projections outlook over the next couple of years.

本季度，您對未來幾年的預測前景做出了一些相當大的改變。

And I guess I'm trying to get a sense for -- I certainly understand there's a lot of moving parts here, but trying to get a sense for how much more confidence you have in these projections than you did in the old ones and whether we're likely to see similar kinds of variability in coming periods?

我想我正試圖了解——我當然知道這裡有很多變化的部分，但試圖了解你對這些預測的信心比對舊預測的信心有多大，以及是否我們可能會在未來一段時間內看到類似的變化？

Yeah.

是的。

I would say that we continue to improve our visibility into the portfolio, into the credit performance and into the expense profile of the company.

我想說的是，我們將繼續提高對投資組合、信用表現和公司費用狀況的了解。

This is now Joseph and my second quarter of in-depth review of the financials, we have instituted an in-depth review at the business line level each month on our financial performance with each of the senior leaders.

現在是約瑟夫和我對財務狀況進行深入審查的第二季度，我們每個月都與每位高級領導一起在業務線層面對我們的財務業績進行了深入審查。

So every month, we get more and more visibility.

所以每個月，我們都會獲得越來越多的關注。

I have a pretty good degree of confidence in the noninterest income -- in the net interest income and the margin line at this point.

我對非利息收入——淨利息收入和此時的利潤線有相當大的信心。

Again, there's a bit of noise in the -- if one is comparing the projections because of the [remap] associated with the cost of those mortgage deposits.

同樣，如果由於與這些抵押貸款存款成本相關的[重新映射]而比較預測，那麼就會出現一些噪音。

We had projected that as a benefit in the margin line, that's actually a benefit in the fees line, which is where the -- where that has previously been recorded from an expense perspective.

我們預計，作為利潤線的好處，這實際上是費用線的好處，這是以前從費用角度記錄的地方。

The other area is, obviously, what we're seeing from a non-interest expense perspective.

顯然，另一個領域是我們從非利息支出角度看到的。

We did take a pretty significant action last week that will improve our expense profile on an ongoing basis, roughly $200 million a year, and we still have more to go.

上週我們確實採取了一項相當重大的行動，這將持續改善我們的支出狀況，每年約 2 億美元，而且我們還有更多工作要做。

So this forecast expects that we will continue to identify efficiency opportunities, many of which are underway as we continue to improve our technology capabilities and our business processes, and those will result in further cost improvements as we get into '25, and early 2016 time frame.

因此，本預測預計我們將繼續發現提高效率的機會，其中許多機會正在我們不斷改進我們的技術能力和業務流程的過程中進行，這些機會將在我們進入25 世紀和2016 年初時帶來進一步的成本改善框架。

The FDIC assessment pressure is something that is related to the business profile and related to the way the FDIC determines its insurance premiums.

FDIC 的評估壓力與業務狀況以及 FDIC 確定保費的方式有關。

It's a complex formula, but it does encompass some things that are -- that provide -- that resulted in an increased rate for us, and I expect that will go through '26.

這是一個複雜的公式，但它確實包含了一些東西，這些東西可以為我們帶來更高的利率，我預計這將持續到 26 年。

That's probably the most significant change in the in the forecast from an earnings perspective.

從獲利角度來看，這可能是預測中最重大的變化。

Okay.

好的。

And then just one quick follow-up.

然後只是一個快速跟進。

I'm curious, Craig, on your modeling.

克雷格，我對你的模特兒很好奇。

What are you assuming in terms of the balance sheet size maybe at the end of '25 and the end of '26?

您對 25 年底和 26 年底的資產負債表規模有何假設？

We're essentially assuming a relatively flat balance sheet.

我們基本上假設資產負債表相對平坦。

We're assuming that we will see a transition from commercial real estate and multi-family loans into C&I loans as the real estate loans repay and runoff and the C&I begins to come on as those bankers get traction in the marketplace.

我們假設，隨著房地產貸款的償還和徑流，我們將看到從商業房地產和多戶家庭貸款向 C&I 貸款的轉變，並且隨著這些銀行家在市場上受到關注，C&I 開始出現。

So not seeing a lot of balance sheet growth.

因此，資產負債表並未大幅成長。

We're projecting a lot of balance sheet growth through '26, but we are projecting a degree of balance sheet growth in the commercial banking space in '27.

我們預計到 26 年，資產負債表將大幅成長，但我們預計商業銀行領域的資產負債表將在 27 年出現一定程度的成長。

Bernard Von Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.

伯納德·馮·吉茲基，德意志銀行。

Question is on revamping the company structure.

問題是關於重組公司結構。

You've done a good job on bringing new hires on the senior management level and changing the Board.

您在高階管理層招募新員工和更換董事會方面做得很好。

You highlighted progress within C&I.

您強調了 C&I 內部的進展。

Can you just talk to like what inning you are in with regards to building out your C&I platform?

您能否簡單談談您在建立 C&I 平台方面所處的階段？

And then in risk management, given previous deficiencies identified, how far are you with revamping your risk control function?

然後在風險管理方面，鑑於先前發現的缺陷，您對風險控制職能的改善進展如何？

And then just lastly on the same topic, any other further head count optimization left to go that hasn't been announced?

最後，關於同一主題，還有其他尚未宣布的進一步人員數量優化嗎？

.

。

Yeah.

是的。

So obviously, the Board level, we announced that Peter, who is a long time Flagstar Board member, will be leaving the Board, and we do anticipate to fill that position, hopefully in the fourth quarter.

顯然，在董事會層面，我們宣布長期擔任 Flagstar 董事會成員的 Peter 將離開董事會，我們確實預計在第四季度填補該職位。

So that is kind of the remaining Board spot at the kind of what I would call the executive management team.

這就是我所說的執行管理團隊中剩下的董事會席位。

We are fully deployed now.

我們現在已全面部署。

And with the addition of Chris Higgins, that completes the rebuild of the executive management.

隨著克里斯·希金斯的加入，執行管理層的重建完成了。

The next level down, we've hired 10 to 20 people in that category where we've upgraded both risk positions and infrastructure under Craig's world, finance people to help us prepare our financials.

再往下一層，我們僱用了 10 到 20 名該類別的人員，我們在克雷格的世界下升級了風險職位和基礎設施，財務人員幫助我們準備財務。

We have confidence in them.

我們對他們有信心。

And then when you look at the two specific areas you mentioned, I'd say in the C&I, we're rounding first base is what I would say.

然後，當你看看你提到的兩個具體領域時，我想說的是，在 C&I 中，我們正在圍繞一壘進行圓整，這就是我想說的。

We anticipate to go from roughly 30 hires to 130 hires is what's built into our plan that we will build that out.

我們預計將僱用約 30 名員工，增加到 130 名員工，這是我們計劃中的內容，我們將逐步實現這一目標。

So we have a fair amount of hiring to do.

所以我們有大量的招募工作要做。

But we're not hiring all those people at once.

但我們不會一次僱用所有這些人。

Now we're going to start to grow the revenue.

現在我們要開始增加收入。

And so it will be a revenue, seeing the revenue, then we'll have the expense in the revenue and the expense.

所以這將是一項收入，看到收入，然後我們就會在收入和支出中看到支出。

On the risk infrastructure, I think that's a relatively good story of the direction and how far we've come in seven months.

關於風險基礎設施，我認為這是一個相對較好的故事，說明了方向以及我們在七個月內的進展。

Obviously, we've added some really highly talented people who worked at the [OCC] for the vast majority of their careers.

顯然，我們增加了一些非常有才華的人，他們的大部分職業生涯都在 [OCC] 工作。

That includes (inaudible) and

這包括（聽不清楚）和

[Brian Hubert.]

[布萊恩休伯特。

So three very senior people from the [OCC,] and it helped us.

來自 [OCC] 的三位非常資深的人員，這對我們很有幫助。

One of the things that we're doing in the company is really building out the first and second and third line of defenses.

我們在公司正在做的事情之一就是真正建立第一道、第二道和第三道防線。

Those were not here in the organization.

這些人不在組織中。

And as everybody knows, a category or bank, you have enhanced standards you have to adhere to.

眾所周知，對於一個類別或銀行，您必須遵守更高的標準。

But I really feel good about the people and the direction that we're going in that regard.

但我對我們在這方面的人員和方向感到非常滿意。

And I do believe that we worked closely with the regulatory community since we all arrived.

我確實相信，自從我們到達以來，我們就與監管界密切合作。

I mean obviously, my background of being the controller, I understand the importance of that.

我的意思顯然是，我作為控制者的背景，我理解它的重要性。

And so I think we've built a strong bridge to our regulators.

因此，我認為我們已經與監管機構建立了一座堅固的橋樑。

We appreciate their input and guidance as we build this.

我們感謝他們在我們建造此項目時的投入和指導。

But I would say, as we look at the risk infrastructure, we feel really good about where we are with the risk management in the organization, our internal audit.

但我想說，當我們審視風險基礎設施時，我們對組織中的風險管理和內部稽核的狀況感到非常滿意。

And we're building out the first line of defense in the business units, and that's also built into our cost model.

我們正在業務部門建立第一道防線，這也已納入我們的成本模型中。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Just maybe as a follow-up.

也許只是作為後續行動。

So you paid down nearly $9 billion of borrowings, utilizing your (inaudbile) liquidity from the business sales and deposit growth.

因此，您利用業務銷售和存款成長帶來的（聽不清楚）流動性，償還了近 90 億美元的借款。

And you noted that you paid down an initial $1 billion in October.

您提到您在 10 月支付了最初的 10 億美元。

What are you targeting as a normalized level of borrowings?

您的正常化借款水準目標是多少？

And how can we think of the pace of those coming down from here?

我們如何看待從這裡下來的人的步伐？

Yeah.

是的。

So if you look at the third quarter, we will have a reduction in the overall liquidity of about $3 billion related to the mortgage servicing sale -- business sales.

因此，如果你看一下第三季度，我們將發現與抵押貸款服務銷售（即企業銷售）相關的整體流動性將減少約 30 億美元。

So those deposits will leave and we have been holding excess liquidity to provide for that.

因此，這些存款將會離開，我們一直持有過剩的流動性來為此提供資金。

From here, I think that we'll relatively match the loan growth with deposit growth.

從這裡開始，我認為我們將把貸款成長與存款成長相對匹配。

We have a bit of excess liquidity that we will use to reduce our broker deposit funding in 2025, as those broker deposits, which are principally CDs, come due, we won't -- I don't expect it will replace those broker deposits on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

我們有一些過剩的流動性，我們將用它來減少 2025 年的經紀人存款資金，因為這些經紀人存款（主要是 CD）到期，我們不會 - 我不認為它會取代這些經紀人存款以美元兌美元為基礎。

So we'll see the broker deposit funding come down.

因此，我們將看到經紀人存款資金下降。

And then as we grow customer deposits, particularly in the Private Banking and commercial space, then we'll look to continue to repay some of our wholesale, some of our wholesale borrowings with the home loan bank.

然後，隨著我們增加客戶存款，特別是在私人銀行和商業領域，我們將繼續償還我們向房屋貸款銀行的一些批發貸款。

But I wouldn't expect that it would be material in the rest of '25.

但我沒想到這在 25 年剩下的時間裡會變得重要。

Actually '24 and then '25, maybe a couple of million dollars.

實際上'24，然後是'25，也許是幾百萬美元。

Jared Shaw, Barclays.

賈里德·肖，巴克萊銀行。

Just circling back on the deposit trends.

回到存款趨勢。

Could you give us a spot rate on the deposit cost at the end of the quarter?

您能給我們季末存款成本的即期匯率嗎？

And then you talked about a beta, the early beta being greater than 100% on some of the retail deposits.

然後你談到了貝塔值，一些零售存款的早期貝塔值大於 100%。

How should we be thinking about beta over the next few rate cuts?

在接下來的幾次降息中，我們該如何考慮貝塔值？

Yeah.

是的。

So our spot rate on our savings is at 5%.

所以我們的即期儲蓄利率是 5%。

That was about [555] if you call it, six months ago, even three months ago.

如果你這麼稱呼的話，那大約是[555]，六個月前，甚至三個月前。

So we brought that down over 50 basis points.

因此我們將其降低了 50 個基點以上。

And I would expect to see that continue to decrease as rates decline here in the fourth quarter a bit further.

我預計隨著第四季利率進一步下降，這一數字將繼續下降。

Modeling from an overall interest-bearing deposit perspective, modeling of 50 beta.

從整體生息存款角度建模，建模為50 beta。

Obviously, on a more premium product, it will be more significant than that.

顯然，對於更優質的產品，它的意義會更大。

And from a Private Banking perspective, again, we see -- that's a more moderate deposit base because it has more non-interest-bearing [DDA] type of accounts there.

從私人銀行的角度來看，我們再次看到——這是一個更溫和的存款基礎，因為那裡有更多的無息 [DDA] 類型帳戶。

So when we bring on those deposits generally, that has not been at our most premium rates that's been at a more moderated rate.

因此，當我們一般存入這些存款時，這並不是我們最高的利率，而是一個較為溫和的利率。

And that's what I would expect going forward.

這就是我對未來的期望。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

And then as a follow-up.

然後作為後續。

How should we be thinking about the multi-family reserve level here with the expectation for higher losses?

在預期損失較高的情況下，我們該如何考慮多戶家庭的準備金水準？

Have you been reserving for that?

你為此預留了嗎？

Or we should expect to see that reserve level start to go higher with the provisioning going forward?

或者我們應該期望看到準備金水準隨著未來準備金的增加而開始上升？

.

。

Well, it's a balance of the expectations around the criticized and classified portfolio as well as the level of charge-offs.

嗯，這是圍繞著受到批評和分類的投資組合的預期以及沖銷水平的平衡。

I don't expect to see the reserve level coming down significantly in the fourth quarter and the first quarter beyond that as we get into '25 and '26, particularly as the portfolio gets through a lot of the repricing and we see how the borrowers perform against that repricing, that will inform where we go with reserve levels.

我預計，當我們進入“25”和“26”時，第四季度和第一季度的準備金水平不會大幅下降，特別是當投資組合經歷大量重新定價並且我們看到借款人如何根據重新定價執行，這將告訴我們準備金水平的走向。

But I think we'll see a pretty consistent reserve level for the next quarter or two.

但我認為我們將在接下來的一兩個季度看到相當穩定的儲備水平。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

班傑林格，花旗銀行。

Just wanted to clarify something here in your guide or the forward couple of years because I believe, Craig, you talked about the remapping.

只是想在您的指南或未來幾年中澄清一些事情，因為我相信克雷格，您談到了重新映射。

So if you look at NII change and then fees change, and the remapping was kind of associated with the ECR -- , just remapping of a couple of items.

因此，如果您查看 NII 變化和費用變化，並且重新映射與 ECR 相關 - 只是重新映射幾個項目。

So net-net, like revenue is down $5 million.

因此淨收入下降了 500 萬美元。

Is that kind of what you wanted to convey?

這就是你想要傳達的訊息嗎？

I just wanted to make sure that's the net change associated

我只是想確保這是相關的淨變化

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

To keep it simple, revenue difference.

簡單來說，收入差異。

To keep it simple, in '25 and '26, there's $150 million that moves from net interest income to noninterest income.

為了簡單起見，在 25 年和 26 年，有 1.5 億美元從淨利息收入轉為非利息收入。

And that's associated with the earnings credit on the escrow deposit, the subservice escrow deposits.

這與託管存款、子服務託管存款的收入信用有關。

Incrementally, I do expect a higher level of nonaccruals than what we had previously contemplated out through '26, and that has -- that has an increased level of pressure in the guide for '26.

逐漸地，我確實預計非應計費用的水平將比我們之前預期的到 26 年更高，而這也增加了 26 年指南中的壓力。

Got you.

明白你了。

Okay.

好的。

And then from an ECR -- from an expense guide perspective, you guys increased at $150 million.

然後從 ECR 來看——從費用指南的角度來看，你們增加了 1.5 億美元。

So I think -- is $100 million of that roughly the FDIC, that guidance for kind of just the (inaudible) related items.

所以我認為 FDIC 大約有 1 億美元，用於（聽不清楚）相關項目的指導。

It really is just temporary, like when you have lower rates, you assume you could probably do a little bit better on a credit review.

這確實只是暫時的，就像當您的利率較低時，您認為您可能可以在信用審查方面做得更好一點。

And so that doesn't get taxed.

所以這不會被徵稅。

It's not tax deductible.

它不能免稅。

That's kind of what the difference is.

這就是差別所在。

I noticed the footnote here.

我注意到這裡的腳註。

So I'm just trying to think like your guidance really didn't change, but you're just kind of long dating that expense.

所以我只是想認為你的指導確實沒有改變，但你只是在長期約會這筆費用。

Particularly with respect to the FDIC, that's correct.

特別是對於 FDIC，這是正確的。

Yeah, the piece related to taxes is mostly because the tax rate moves around quite a bit.

是的，與稅收相關的部分主要是因為稅率變動很大。

And that's because the FDIC piece is pretty sizable.

這是因為 FDIC 的份額相當大。

The FDIC assessment is pretty sizable and being nondeductible, it represents a fairly large percentage of the bottom line over the next two years, and that causes the tax rate to move around.

FDIC 的評估規模相當大，而且不可扣除，它佔未來兩年利潤的相當大比例，這導致稅率發生變化。

So that footnote, just explaining the tax rate.

所以那個腳註只是解釋稅率。

Got you.

明白你了。

And so when you think about the rate perspective, if you were to move rates lower back to kind of the where they just were recently a couple of weeks ago, you'd probably get a little bit more of a green light to change.

因此，當你考慮利率角度時，如果你將利率調低至幾週前的水平，你可能會獲得更多的改變機會。

But how long do you need to be in that green light.

但你需要在綠燈中待多久。

You need 12 straight months before things would look better on a credit perspective due to the rates?

您需要連續 12 個月才能從信用角度來看，由於利率，情況會變得更好嗎？

I'm just trying to think about the timing of which you think it would look -- like it is better, but you can't just [oscillate] these things quarter-to-quarter based on rates themselves.

我只是想考慮一下你認為它看起來會更好的時機，但你不能僅僅根據利率本身逐季度[振盪]這些事情。

Right.

正確的。

We can't move them around.

我們不能移動它們。

And the other challenge is that once we do have a downgrade, rates have to move pretty substantially in order for us to be able to upgrade the loans.

另一個挑戰是，一旦我們確實降級，利率就必須大幅變動，以便我們能夠升級貸款。

And so that pressure continues out for a couple of years.

因此，這種壓力會持續幾年。

I do expect it will be through '26.

我確實預計會持續到 26 年。

Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott.

克里斯多福·馬裡納克，珍妮·蒙哥馬利·斯科特。

Just wanted to clarify if the substandard and special mention loans are falling this quarter or kind of what you see is their trend from here?

只是想澄清本季次級貸款和關注貸款是否正在下降，或者您從這裡看到的趨勢是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

In the fourth quarter, I would expect to see that our special mention and substandard loans will continue to increase at a -- not at the pace that we've seen thus far.

在第四季度，我預計我們的特別關注貸款和次級貸款將繼續以我們迄今為止所看到的速度增加。

But as we still have a bit of financial information to get through, and we have things moving into the repricing window.

但由於我們仍然有一些財務資訊需要了解，而且我們還有一些事情正在進入重新定價窗口。

So I think the trend would be for an increase in substandard and special mention.

所以我認為趨勢是不合格和特別提及的增加。

Okay.

好的。

And they are higher at the end of September, just given the inflow, outflow?

考慮到流入和流出，9 月底的價格更高？

I mean, I know you've had payoffs, but you also pushed the new loans in from the repricing schedule, as you said.

我的意思是，我知道你已經得到了回報，但正如你所說，你也從重新定價計劃中推入了新貸款。

Is that right?

是這樣嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then on the general cost of funds for the company going forward, how would you look at that relative to wherever Fed funds go?

然後，關於公司未來的整體資金成本，相對於聯邦資金的去向，您如何看待這項成本？

Like if we look at a year from now, Fed funds (inaudible) for example, would the cost of funds be at more of a discount to that than it is today?

例如，如果我們展望一年後，以聯邦基金（聽不清楚）為例，資金成本是否會比現在有更多折扣？

I'm thinking about the math of your question.

我正在考慮你問題的數學。

I think that the answer would be our average cost of funds would be at roughly the same discount that it is today on -- in total.

我認為答案是我們的平均資金成本總體上將與今天的折扣大致相同。

If you think about our funding profile, about half of our funding profile is very short-term priced and the other half is either noninterest-bearing or longer-term priced.

如果你考慮我們的資金狀況，我們的資金狀況中約有一半是短期定價的，另一半是無息或長期定價的。

So you can kind of do the math of that as the Fed moves to short-term price component of that, I expect that we'll see a very high beta on that.

因此，當聯準會轉向短期價格組成部分時，您可以對此進行數學計算，我預計我們會看到非常高的貝塔值。

So virtually, all of our wholesale funding at this point is priced something under a year.

因此，實際上，我們目前所有的批發資金的定價都低於一年。

And of course, our savings deposits move immediately.

當然，我們的儲蓄存款會立即轉移。

So I think that you'll see that discount roughly -- remain roughly the same over time.

所以我認為你會看到折扣隨著時間的推移大致保持不變。

The mix will change a little bit with wholesale.

批發的組合會略有變化。

With more C&I customers coming on board, the mix of that will move more to transaction accounts, which should help as well.

隨著越來越多的工商業客戶加入，這種組合將更多地轉向交易帳戶，這也應該有所幫助。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥克格拉蒂，KBW。

The loan-to-deposit ratio, is it about where you would like it to be longer term, kind of low 80s?

貸存比是您希望長期維持在 80 左右的水平嗎？

I'd actually like to see it be a bit higher.

我實際上希望看到它更高一點。

I think that we'll continue to gather customer deposits over the course of the next two years.

我認為我們將在未來兩年內繼續收集客戶存款。

We'll see a relatively flat overall balance sheet and continue to gather deposits.

我們將看到整體資產負債表相對平坦，並繼續吸收存款。

And so I would expect that it would improve, that we'll see a continued decrease in the loan-to-deposit ratio, but it won't be of the significance that we've seen in the last two quarters.

因此，我預計情況會有所改善，我們會看到貸存比持續下降，但不會像過去兩季那樣顯著。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just a couple of housekeeping items for the fourth quarter.

然後是第四季的一些日常用品。

Just teasing through the one-timers that are in the guide.

只是梳理一下指南中的一次性計時器。

Could you just help (inaudible) the fees and expenses for the fourth quarter and also the share count once the -- all the preferreds are converted?

您能否幫助（聽不清楚）第四季的費用和支出，以及所有優先股轉換後的股份數量？

Yeah.

是的。

So the share count has pretty much settled down.

所以股份數量已經基本確定。

The end of quarter share count will be -- is reflective of the expectation on an ongoing basis.

季度末的股票數量將反映持續的預期。

Virtually, all of the preferred that I expect will convert in the near term did convert in the third quarter, and that's been public information.

事實上，我預計在短期內轉換的所有優先股都在第三季度實現了轉換，而且這是公開資訊。

From a one-timer perspective, in the fourth quarter, I do expect that we'll see some charges associated with the mortgage business transaction exit.

從一次性的角度來看，我確實預計在第四季度我們會看到一些與抵押貸款業務交易退出相關的費用。

So we'll have some asset impairments and a bit of severance and then the action that we took last week.

因此，我們將進行一些資產減損和一些遣散費，然後採取上週採取的行動。

We'll also have some severance associated with it.

我們還將獲得一些與之相關的遣散費。

All in, I think that those charges will be in the $100 million range.

總而言之，我認為這些費用將在 1 億美元範圍內。

Matthew Breese, Stephens.

馬修·布里斯，史蒂芬斯。

I was hoping we could first talk a little bit about loan portfolio yields.

我希望我們能先談談貸款組合收益率。

So loan yields have been down for four consecutive quarters despite kind of a positive repricing narrative and repricing dynamics within CRE multi-family.

因此，儘管商業房地產多戶型住宅的重新定價敘述和重新定價動態有所積極，但貸款收益率已連續四個季度下降。

So I guess how much accretion was there this quarter within loan yields?

那我猜本季貸款殖利率有多少成長？

How much impact did nonaccruals have?

非應計費用有多大影響？

And when do you think we can actually start to see loan yields begin to expand?

您認為我們什麼時候可以真正開始看到貸款收益率開始擴大？

.

。

Yeah, the majority of the impact on -- from decreasing loan yields is from the non-accruals.

是的，貸款收益率下降的大部分影響來自非應計項目。

There is not much accretion at this point that's built into the into the margin or that would go away.

此時並沒有太多的累積被納入到邊緣中，否則就會消失。

It's maybe $15 million a quarter that tapers off over the next four quarters.

每季可能有 1500 萬美元，在接下來的四個季度中會逐漸減少。

If we think about from a repricing perspective, you can see that we've got about $5 billion a year that will reprice, and that moves up from an average rate of about 3.5%.

如果我們從重新定價的角度考慮，您會發現我們每年大約有 50 億美元需要重新定價，並且比平均 3.5% 左右有所上升。

In our forecast, we do have rates coming down.

在我們的預測中，利率確實會下降。

But at that intermediate term level, not a lot.

但在中期水準上，並不是很多。

So we see that -- those loans as they come in from a repricing perspective, reprice from the 3.5% level up to the 7.5% level.

所以我們看到，這些貸款從重新定價的角度來看，從 3.5% 的水平重新定價到 7.5% 的水平。

So that's what's driving the increase.

這就是推動成長的原因。

And I do think that we'll see that turn in the fourth quarter a bit.

我確實認為我們會在第四季看到這種轉變。

And then as we get into '25, we see less incremental non-accruals than what we've had on a quarterly basis the last two quarters, then we'll see that turn positive.

然後，當我們進入 25 世紀時，我們看到的增量非應計項目比過去兩個季度按季度計算的要少，然後我們會看到這種情況轉為正數。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then I just wanted to go back.

然後我就想回去。

You noted that you expect the balance sheet to be flat a couple of times now.

您指出，您預期資產負債表現在會持平幾次。

If I look at the forward guide, the NII and the guidance implies that you'll take earning assets down to around $102 billion in '25 and '26 from $109 billion today.

如果我看一下前瞻性指南，NII 和指南意味著您將在 25 年和 26 年將盈利資產從今天的 1090 億美元降至約 1020 億美元。

Can you just talk a little bit about that and then the pros and cons of going below $100 billion as it relates to category for bank designation?

您能否簡單談談這一點，以及與銀行指定類別相關的低於 1000 億美元的利弊？

It feels like you're hesitant to go that route, to go sub-$100 billion.

感覺就像你在猶豫要不要走那條路，要不要花 1000 億美元以下。

I'm curious if there's more to it than we currently understand.

我很好奇是否還有比我們目前所理解的更多的內容。

So regarding the $100 billion level, if you work your way through that, if you get below $100 billion, you still have four quarters that you are anticipated to be compliant with the Category four.

因此，對於 1000 億美元的水平，如果你努力做到這一點，如果你的收入低於 1000 億美元，你仍然有四個季度的時間預計符合第四類標準。

And then from a regulatory perspective, when you start to get close to $90 billion, you have to put in place a plan to become compliant.

然後從監管的角度來看，當你開始接近 900 億美元時，你必須制定一個合規計畫。

So just because you get below $100 billion, does it mean that you don't have to have the enhanced standards.

因此，僅僅因為您的收入低於 1000 億美元，是否就意味著您不必採用增強的標準。

So that isn't like our target to get below $100 billion and said what we've taken the approach was to build out the appropriate risk infrastructure in the company, and then allow our business model to take it where we can grow and expand.

因此，這不像我們的目標是低於 1000 億美元，我們採取的方法是在公司內建立適當的風險基礎設施，然後讓我們的業務模式將其帶到我們可以成長和擴張的地方。

And so it isn't a goal of ours.

所以這不是我們的目標。

It isn't a desire.

這不是一個願望。

And quite frankly, you probably have to shrink $20 billion or more to get to the point where you wouldn't be subject to those standards.

坦白說，你可能需要削減 200 億美元或更多才能達到不受這些標準約束的程度。

Understood.

明白了。

Is my thinking correct in that earning assets could $5 billion to $10 billion here?

我的想法是否正確，這裡的收入資產可以達到 50 億至 100 億美元？

Yeah.

是的。

But I think that there's a reasonable chunk of that that's actually coming out from a cash perspective.

但我認為其中有相當一部分實際上是從現金角度來看的。

It's earning, but we're deploying that cash either to pay down debt or to pay down broker deposits.

它是盈利的，但我們將這些現金用於償還債務或償還經紀人存款。

So there's -- the loan portfolio, I don't expect to be decreasing as much as the cash -- the cash component.

因此，我預計貸款組合的減少幅度不會像現金部分那樣減少。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

喬恩‧阿夫斯特羅姆 (Jon Arfstrom)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

I don't know if this is an easy question or a hard question, but if the economy stays in kind of a steady state, when do you guys think we'll see the peak in nonperformers?

我不知道這是一個簡單的問題還是一個困難的問題，但如果經濟保持穩定狀態，你們認為我們什麼時候會看到不良者的頂峰？

I think the repricing that comes into the portfolio over the course of the next two years, we'll continue to have a component of it that moves into nonperforming.

我認為，在未來兩年內，投資組合中的重新定價，我們將繼續有一部分進入不良狀態。

And so I think we'll see a continued level of new additions to nonperforming through '26.

因此，我認為，到 2026 年，不良貸款將持續增加。

And then the question becomes how quickly will we be able to action the existing portfolio of nonperformers.

然後問題就變成了我們能夠以多快的速度對現有的不良資產組合採取行動。

Many of the loans that are in the non-accrual category are in there because of our focus on looking out at the repricing characteristics and a pretty stringent assumption that or a criteria that from a classification standpoint would suggest that we expect them to default.

許多屬於非應計類別的貸款之所以被列入其中，是因為我們專注於關注重新定價特徵，並且從分類的角度來看，一個相當嚴格的假設或標準表明我們預計它們會違約。

The reality is that we see the vast majority of them continuing to perform even when they do reprice.

現實情況是，我們看到它們中的絕大多數即使在重新定價後仍繼續表現。

And so that will -- those loans are performing.

因此，這些貸款正在發揮作用。

They are amortizing their principal balances.

他們正在攤銷本金餘額。

But I think that we'll continue to see new loans being added to the non-performing portfolio over the course of the next two years as loans reprice.

但我認為，隨著貸款重新定價，未來兩年我們將繼續看到新貸款被添加到不良投資組合中。

Anything unusual about this quarter in terms of the review?

本季的審查有什麼不尋常的地方嗎？

Obviously, it didn't go up like last quarter.

顯然，它沒有像上季度那樣上漲。

But are you saying this is increasing at a decreasing rate or how material do you expect it to be, the increases?

但你是說成長速度正在下降，還是你預期成長的幅度有多大？

.

。

No, there wasn't anything particularly unique about this quarter.

不，本季沒有什麼特別獨特的地方。

We just continue to run our process.

我們只是繼續運行我們的流程。

We still had financials to grind through.

我們還有財務問題需要解決。

The level of new substandards sort of at the same pace that we saw before.

新的不合格標準的水平與我們之前看到的速度大致相同。

We've gotten through the bigger loans.

我們已經獲得了更大的貸款。

It's smaller.

它更小。

So we're looking at a lot of smaller loans that -- more widgets, but there wasn't much of a change.

因此，我們正在考慮許多小額貸款——更多的小部件，但沒有太大變化。

We're just sort of getting through it.

我們只是在渡過難關。

This is an annual process.

這是一個每年的過程。

As Craig said, this will continue each year.

正如克雷格所說，這種情況每年都會持續下去。

We'll have to do new financial reviews and review these loans as they're getting into the refinance window.

我們必須進行新的財務審查，並在這些貸款進入再融資窗口時對其進行審查。

So I wouldn't say that there's anything unique.

所以我不會說有什麼獨特之處。

The one thing that I would add is, Kris said this is an annual process, but we went to a standard on the expectation is that the borrowers would provide us the financial data.

我要補充的一件事是，克里斯說這是一個年度流程，但我們的預期標準是藉款人將為我們提供財務數據。

And perhaps in the past, it was more lax about whether they sent their financial data into the company.

也許在過去，他們對是否將財務資料發送給公司的要求比較寬鬆。

And then second of all, I think there's a new standard of underwriting around debt service coverage and loan-to-value as opposed to using loan-to-value for the risk rating process.

其次，我認為圍繞著償債範圍和貸款價值比有一個新的承保標準，而不是在風險評級過程中使用貸款價值比。

And so that in itself, there's more rigor around your primary and secondary social repayment.

因此，就其本身而言，您的主要和次要社會回報更加嚴格。

Yes.

是的。

I agree with that, Joseph.

我同意這一點，約瑟夫。

We were very aggressive in terms of getting financial information.

我們在獲取財務資訊方面非常積極。

And I think 98% of our borrowers provided financial information, which is significantly higher than in the past.

而且我認為我們的借款人中有 98% 提供了財務信息，這明顯高於過去。

And we did in the second quarter, institute changes relative to how we evaluate risk with more of a focus on debt service coverage ratio, as Joseph said, as opposed to loan-to-value.

正如約瑟夫所說，我們在第二季度就評估風險的方式進行了改變，並且更關注償債覆蓋率，而不是貸款價值比。

But that process started in the second quarter and continued on into the third, and that will be our standard going forward.

但這個過程從第二季開始並持續到第三季度，這將是我們未來的標準。

Okay.

好的。

That helps.

這有幫助。

And then just two others.

然後只有另外兩個。

You guys do a lot of benchmarking in the presentation.

你們在示範中做了很多基準測試。

And I know this isn't an easy question, but what do you think the normalized -- more normalized reserve percentage should look like for the company in '26 and into '27?

我知道這不是一個簡單的問題，但您認為公司在 26 年和 27 年的標準化準備金百分比應該是什麼樣子？

From a provisioning or overall reserve perpective?

從準備金或整體準備金的角度來看？

Overall reserves.

總體儲備。

Overall reserves.

總體儲備。

Yeah.

是的。

I think our portfolio is pretty idiosyncratic and it kind of depends on how the portfolio performs as we transition into a more C&I-based portfolio and balanced portfolio.

我認為我們的投資組合相當特殊，這在某種程度上取決於我們過渡到更基於 C&I 的投資組合和平衡投資組合時投資組合的表現。

I think that you'll see the C&I reserve levels will be substantially lower than what the commercial real estate levels on the existing portfolio are.

我認為您會看到商業和工業儲備水平將大大低於現有投資組合中的商業房地產水平。

And so that will have an impact, but it will really depend on the portfolio performance.

因此，這將會產生影響，但這實際上取決於投資組合的表現。

Portfolio mix is very important.

投資組合非常重要。

The mix.

混合。

Okay.

好的。

You said the the mix.

你說的是混合。

Okay.

好的。

I understand that.

我明白這一點。

And then on Slide 9 and then some of your comments about the margin thinking -- I hate to ask it this way, but is that the easy part of the formula, just the margin lift from CRE repricing?

然後在幻燈片 9 上，然後是您對利潤率思考的一些評論——我不想這樣問，但這只是公式中最簡單的部分嗎？

Is that just the natural output of the maturity schedule and you have high confidence in that margin trajectory?

這只是到期計畫的自然輸出嗎？

Yeah, the bulk of that -- the margin percentage is a combination of the the repricing of the commercial real estate multi-family portfolio, but it's actually tempered a bit with the C&I build because we expect that the C&I loans would have a slightly lower overall spread than the commercial real estate and multi-family loans as they reprice.

是的，其中大部分——保證金百分比是商業房地產多戶投資組合重新定價的組合，但它實際上隨著 C&I 的建設而有所緩和，因為我們預計 C&I 貸款的利率會略低重新定價時，整體利差高於商業房地產和多戶家庭貸款。

So it's the lift from the repricing balanced with the growth in the C&I portfolio.

因此，這是重新定價與工商業投資組合成長平衡所帶來的提升。

Steve Moss, Raymond James.

史蒂夫·莫斯，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Just wanted to follow up on nonperformers here.

只是想跟進這裡表現不佳的人。

The multi-family bucket was the driver of the increase this quarter.

多戶家庭是本季成長的驅動力。

And I'm just curious if that's related to the roll forward setup in terms of the 18-month look forward on -- as you analyze what substandard and criticized?

我只是好奇這是否與 18 個月的展望中的前滾設定有關 - 當您分析哪些不合格和批評時？

And just maybe the (inaudible), we'll see the step up given the reprice dynamics stretch out into 2026, and pick up in 2027?

也許（聽不清楚），考慮到重新定價動態會延續到 2026 年，我們會看到價格上漲，並在 2027 年回升？

Or if there's something special this quarter about the -- something else that drove that?

或者，本季是否有什麼特別的因素——還有其他因素推動了這一趨勢？

Well, this quarter is a combination of getting through more of the portfolio.

嗯，這個季度是透過更多投資組合的組合。

We moved from 75% to 95% of the portfolio and another quarter coming into the 18-month window, so to speak.

可以這麼說，我們將投資組合的 75% 提高到了 95%，另外一個季度進入了 18 個月的窗口。

Moving forward, we have a little bit more of the catch-up to do, but not much.

展望未來，我們還有更多的工作要做，但不多。

And then each quarter have more loans that will come into the window.

然後每季都會有更多的貸款進入窗口。

It's about $1 billion a quarter for the next four quarters that comes into the window, and then the 2027 repricings that move in are about $1.5 billion a quarter that move into the window for evaluation.

接下來的四個季度每季大約有 10 億美元進入窗口，然後進入評估窗口的 2027 年重新定價約為每季 15 億美元。

And when they do, some portion goes to substandards, unfortunately, remains in past graded.

當他們這樣做時，不幸的是，有些部分不符合標準，仍然保留在過去的評分中。

But that repricing pathway is what will drive it moving forward, if you get -- once we get beyond fourth quarter where we've gotten through the full portfolio review.

但是，一旦我們進入第四季度，我們已經完成了全面的投資組合審查，那麼重新定價途徑將推動它向前發展。

Okay.

好的。

And then just one follow-up here in terms of -- I know the secondary market seems to have improved here in the past couple of months.

然後，這裡只有一個後續行動——我知道過去幾個月二級市場似乎有所改善。

Just curious if you think there's any potential for an acceleration in prepays for the multi-family portfolio, just given the shifting rates?

只是好奇，考慮到利率變化，您是否認為多戶投資組合的預付款有可能加速？

I know we've had it back up here in the last couple of weeks, but I'm just curious if there's any possibility?

我知道過去幾週我們已經恢復了，但我只是好奇是否有可能？

One comment I would have, obviously, when rates, as Craig mentioned, back up a bit, there was somewhat of a flurry of a lot of people locking in rates.

顯然，我想說的一個評論是，正如克雷格提到的那樣，當利率略有回升時，很多人都會鎖定利率。

I think because they've now increased, back up slightly, people are waiting to see the next Fed move.

我認為，因為它們現在已經增加，並且略有回升，所以人們正在等待聯準會的下一步。

But that should spur a fair amount of refinancing.

但這應該會刺激大量的再融資。

And what we're finding is people are coming out of pocket to rebalance loans, and our objective would be for them to take those loans elsewhere and get financing.

我們發現人們正在自掏腰包重新平衡貸款，我們的目標是讓他們將這些貸款轉移到其他地方並獲得融資。

So we have found in the number of the large office transactions we have, as you probably noticed, we moved one large transaction to held for sale.

因此，正如您可能注意到的那樣，我們在大型辦公大樓交易的數量中發現，我們將一項大型交易轉為待售。

We do expect in the month of November to close that transaction.

我們確實預計在 11 月完成該交易。

We marked it at what our agreed-upon sales price was for that transaction.

我們按照我們商定的該交易的銷售價格對其進行標記。

And there are a number, four or five other large transactions were under discussion at this point.

目前還有四、五筆其他大型交易正在討論中。

So there is interest, even in the office space for investors.

因此，即使是投資者的辦公空間也引起了興趣。

And some of those we're selling at where we have a market, and some of them, we're taking slight losses.

其中一些是我們在有市場的地方出售的，而其中一些我們正在承受輕微的損失。

But overall that -- we do think that will pick up.

但總的來說，我們確實認為這種情況將會好轉。

And then on the multi-family side, there has been kind of a renewed interest even in the rent-regulated space for people looking for assets in that space.

然後在多戶住宅方面，即使在租金管制領域，人們也對在該領域尋找資產的人產生了新的興趣。

So we are optimistic that the next couple of quarters, as we did bring on a new head of our workout group has organized that group with a team who is doing outreach to customers and having dialogue.

因此，我們樂觀地認為，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們確實任命了一位新的健身小組負責人，並與一個正在與客戶進行外展並進行對話的團隊一起組織了該小組。

We have an assigned kind of [SWAT] team that's taking that on.

我們有一個指定的[特警]小組來承擔這項任務。

We do think we'll see the fruits of that activity going forward.

我們確實認為我們將會看到這項活動的成果。

And with that, I'll turn the call back to Joseph Otting for closing remarks.

接下來，我會把電話轉回給約瑟夫‧奧廷（Joseph Otting），讓他作結束語。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for taking the time to join us this morning.

感謝您今天早上抽出時間加入我們。

We very much appreciate your questions and your interest in the company.

我們非常感謝您提出的問題以及您對公司的興趣。

Craig and I are usually readily available if you would like to have dialogue or further questions.

如果您想進行對話或進一步提問，克雷格和我通常很樂意為您服務。

If you do, please contact Sal, and he'll arrange time for us to talk.

如果您這樣做，請聯繫薩爾，他會安排我們談話的時間。

And I'd just like to say, this is the closeout for us at New York Community Bank as the holding company and look forward to next time we meeting being under the Flagstar Financial banner.

我只想說，這是我們紐約社區銀行作為控股公司的收尾，並期待我們下次在 Flagstar Financial 的旗幟下舉行會議。

So thank you very much.

非常感謝。

That will conclude today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.

感謝大家的加入，現在可以斷開連線了。