(NYCB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the New York Community Bancorp Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的支持。我叫雷吉娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 New York Community Bancorp Inc. 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Sal DiMartino, Chief of Staff and Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給辦公室主任兼投資者關係副總裁薩爾·迪馬蒂諾 (Sal DiMartino)。請繼續。

Thank you, Regina, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining the management team of New York Community Bancorp for today's conference call. Today's discussion of our fourth quarter and full year results will be led by President and CEO Thomas Cangemi, who will be joined by the company's Chief Financial Officer, John Pinto; along with our President of Banking, Reggie Davis, and the President of Mortgage, Lee Smith.

謝謝你，雷吉娜，大家早安。感謝大家參加紐約社區銀行管理團隊今天的電話會議。今天對我們第四季和全年業績的討論將由總裁兼執行長 Thomas Cangemi 主持，公司財務長 John Pinto 也將參加會議。以及我們的銀行業務總裁雷吉·戴維斯 (Reggie Davis) 和抵押貸款業務總裁李·史密斯 (Lee Smith)。

Before the discussion begins, I'd like to remind you that certain comments made today by the management team of New York Community Bancorp may include certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules. Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in today's press release and investor presentation for more information about risks and uncertainties which may affect us.

在討論開始之前，我想提醒您，紐約社區銀行管理團隊今天發表的某些評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的某些前瞻性陳述。此類前瞻性陳述我們可能發表的聲明須遵守安全港規則。請查看今天的新聞稿和投資者演示中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言，以了解有關可能影響我們的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Cangemi.

現在我想把電話轉給 Cangemi 先生。

Thank you, Sal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we go into the details of this year's results, I would like to provide some commentary to put the past year into perspective. When I was appointed President and CEO 3 years ago, we embarked upon transforming the legacy New York Community Bank business model from a monoline thrift to a dynamic diversified full-service commercial bank.

謝謝你，薩爾。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。在我們詳細介紹今年的結果之前，我想提供一些評論，以回顧過去的一年。三年前，當我被任命為總裁兼執行長時，我們開始將傳統的紐約社區銀行業務模式從單一儲蓄銀行轉變為充滿活力的多元化全方位服務商業銀行。

2023 was an important inflection point. We built on the momentum created by the Flagstar acquisition that closed in December of 2022, and continue to successfully execute our transformation strategy while establishing a clear path for future growth. We reported $2.3 billion of net income available to common stockholders, up from $617 million in 2022. We significantly diversified our balance sheet with commercial loans representing an increasingly greater percentage of total loans.

2023年是一個重要的轉捩點。我們以 2022 年 12 月完成的 Flagstar 收購所創造的勢頭為基礎，繼續成功執行我們的轉型策略，同時為未來的成長建立清晰的道路。我們公佈的普通股股東淨收入為 23 億美元，高於 2022 年的 6.17 億美元。我們的資產負債表大幅多元化，商業貸款在總貸款中所佔的比例越來越大。

Similarly, the percentage of noninterest-bearing deposits, the total deposits have nearly quadrupled since just before we closed the Flagstar acquisition. We began the Flagstar integration successfully meeting every milestone throughout the year with the systems conversion set for mid-February. We also unveiled a rebranding campaign that will launch shortly after the systems conversion is completed, which has been well received both internally and externally.

同樣，自我們完成 Flagstar 收購之前以來，無利息存款的百分比（總存款）幾乎翻了兩番。我們開始了 Flagstar 集成，成功實現了全年的每個里程碑，並於 2 月中旬進行了系統轉換。我們還推出了一項品牌重塑活動，該活動將在系統轉換完成後不久啟動，該活動受到了內部和外部的好評。

And we acquired select financial and strategically complementary assets and liabilities for Signature Bank, which strengthened our balance sheet by adding a significant amount of low-cost deposits and added a middle-market business supported by over 130 private banking teams. Importantly, the addition of Signature Bank catapulted us to over $100 billion in total assets, placing us firmly in the Category IV large bank class of banking institutions between $100 billion and $250 billion in total assets.

我們也收購了 Signature Bank 的精選金融和策略互補資產和負債，透過增加大量低成本存款來強化我們的資產負債表，並增加由 130 多個私人銀行團隊支持的中間市場業務。重要的是，Signature Bank 的加入使我們的總資產躍升至超過 1000 億美元，使我們穩居總資產在 1000 億美元至 2500 億美元之間的第四類大型銀行類別銀行機構之列。

The last 3 years were all a buildup of this moment. And since the closing of the Flagstar acquisition, in particular, we have been preparing to cross this important threshold. When the opportunity to acquire Signature presented itself, and we were honored to be selected as the lending bidder by the FDIC, the benefits were clear. This acquisition allows us to advance our strategy while strengthening and diversifying our balance sheet.

過去的三年都是這一刻的累積。特別是自 Flagstar 收購完成以來，我們一直在準備跨越這項重要門檻。當收購 Signature 的機會出現時，我們很榮幸被 FDIC 選為貸款投標人，好處是顯而易見的。此次收購使我們能夠推進我們的策略，同時加強我們的資產負債表並使其多元化。

However, this acquisition also meant, we will become a $100 billion-plus bank sooner than we had anticipated. Subjecting us to enhance financial standards, including risk base and leverage capital requirements, liquidity standards and requirements for overall risk management and stress testing. Alongside the integration of 3 banks, NYCB, Signature and Flagstar, and as we prepare for our first capital plan submission in April of this year, we have pivoted quickly and accelerated some enhances that come with being a Category IV bank.

然而，這次收購也意味著，我們將比我們預期的更早成為一家價值超過1000億美元的銀行。要求我們提高財務標準，包括風險基礎和槓桿資本要求、流動性標準以及整體風險管理和壓力測試的要求。除了 NYCB、Signature 和 Flagstar 這 3 家銀行的整合之外，當我們準備在今年 4 月提交第一份資本計劃時，我們已經迅速轉向並加速了作為第四類銀行所帶來的一些增強。

Specifically, we are taking decisive actions to build capital, strengthen our balance sheet and risk management processes, which better aligns us with the relevant peers for a bank of our largest size and complexity. These actions include investing to strengthen our risk management capabilities to align with the enhanced prudential standards applicable to Cat IV banks as set forth under Reg YY. Building our reserve levels, which brings our ACL coverage more in line with peer banks including Category IV banks and adding on-balance sheet liquidity as we prep for Regulation of YY compliance.

具體來說，我們正在採取果斷行動來累積資本，加強我們的資產負債表和風險管理流程，這使我們能夠更好地與我們規模最大、複雜性最大的銀行的相關同行保持一致。這些行動包括投資加強我們的風險管理能力，以符合《YY 條例》規定的適用於 IV 類銀行的強化審慎標準。建立我們的準備金水平，使我們的 ACL 覆蓋範圍與包括 IV 類銀行在內的同行銀行更加一致，並在我們為 YY 合規性監管做好準備時增加表內流動性。

We believe these actions are another prudent step in enhancing our risk management infrastructure. I will go on to more detail in a moment and how these actions impacted our results in the fourth quarter. We are also accelerating our capital build by reducing our common stock dividend to $0.05 per share. We understand the importance and the impact of the decision to our stockholders. This was not made lightly. While NYCB remains well capitalized under all applicable regulatory requirements, resetting our capital allocation priorities was a necessary step to accelerate the building of our capital. We are confident that these actions we took in the fourth quarter and the continued execution of our strategy will position the company to deliver enhanced value over the long term.

我們相信這些行動是加強我們的風險管理基礎設施的另一個審慎步驟。我稍後將詳細介紹這些行動如何影響我們第四季的業績。我們也透過將普通股股利減少至每股 0.05 美元來加速資本建設。我們了解該決定對股東的重要性和影響。這並不是輕易做出的。雖然 NYCB 在所有適用的監管要求下仍然擁有充足的資本，但重新調整我們的資本配置優先順序是加速我們資本建設的必要步驟。我們相信，我們在第四季度採取的這些行動以及我們策略的持續執行將使公司能夠在長期內提供更高的價值。

We successfully grew into a $50 billion-plus bank in 2018, and we believe the actions we are taking now are building the foundations to make all transition to a $100 billion-plus bank even more successful. Moving now to the results. The company reported $2.3 billion of net income available for common stockholders in 2023 or $3.24 per diluted share. On an operating basis, which excludes merger-related charges, a $2.2 billion bargain purchase gain related to Signature transaction and a onetime special FDIC assessment of $39 million, reported net income available to common stockholders of $609 million or $0.80 per diluted share.

2018 年，我們成功成長為一家資產規模超過 500 億美元的銀行，我們相信，我們現在採取的行動正在奠定基礎，使向資產規模超過 1000 億美元的銀行的轉型更加成功。現在來看結果。該公司報告稱，2023 年普通股股東可獲得的淨利潤為 23 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 3.24 美元。在營運基礎上，不包括合併相關費用、與Signature 交易相關的22 億美元討價還價購買收益以及3900 萬美元的FDIC 一次性特別評估，報告普通股股東可獲得的淨利潤為6.09 億美元，或稀釋後每股收益0.80 美元。

As I said earlier, the actions we undertook impacted several items during the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we reported a net loss of $252 million or $0.36 per share. On an operating basis, the company reported a net loss of $193 million or $0.27 per share. Our fourth quarter results were impacted by the actions we undertook, including a $552 million provision for credit losses.

正如我之前所說，我們採取的行動影響了第四季的多個專案。 2023 年第四季度，我們報告淨虧損 2.52 億美元，即每股虧損 0.36 美元。在營運基礎上，該公司報告淨虧損 1.93 億美元，即每股 0.27 美元。我們第四季的業績受到我們採取的行動的影響，其中包括 5.52 億美元的信貸損失撥備。

Let's begin with asset quality. Nonperforming loans were stable in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter of the year despite some continued reasons in the commercial real estate sector. At December 31, 2023, nonperforming loans totaled $428 million and represented 37 basis points of total loans compared to $435 million or 40 basis points in the previous quarter.

讓我們從資產品質開始。儘管商業房地產行業仍存在一些問題，但第四季度不良貸款較第三季保持穩定。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，不良貸款總額為 4.28 億美元，佔貸款總額的 37 個基點，而上一季為 4.35 億美元，佔貸款總額的 40 個基點。

During the fourth quarter, we significantly built our reserves to address office sector weakness and an expected increase in criticized loans due to repricing risk in the multi-family portfolio, which better aligns NYCB with our relevant peer banks, including Category IV banks. At December 31, 2023, the allowance for credit losses was $992 million, up $370 million compared to the previous quarter and represented 1.17% of total loans, up from 74 basis points compared to the previous quarter.

第四季度，我們大幅建立了儲備金，以解決辦公部門的疲軟問題，以及由於多戶型投資組合的重新定價風險而導致的批評貸款預期增加的問題，這更好地使NYCB 與我們的相關同行銀行（包括第四類銀行）保持一致。截至2023年12月31日，信貸損失準備金為9.92億美元，較上季增加3.7億美元，佔貸款總額的1.17%，較上季增加74個基點。

Excluding loans with government guarantees and lower risk mortgage warehouse loans, the ACL coverage was 1.26% in the fourth quarter compared to 80 basis points in the previous quarter. Since the third quarter of 2022, we have built our reserves of $774 million. Net charge-offs for the quarter were $185 million or 22 basis points of average loans, driven by 2 loans. First, we had 1 co-op loan with a unique feature for pre-funded capital expenditures. Although the borrower is not in default, we transferred the loan to held for sale in the fourth quarter and expected to be sold during the first quarter.

剔除政府擔保貸款和風險較低的抵押倉庫貸款，第四季度ACL覆蓋率為1.26%，而上一季為80個基點。自 2022 年第三季以來，我們已建立了 7.74 億美元的儲備金。該季度的淨沖銷額為 1.85 億美元，即平均貸款的 22 個基點，由 2 筆貸款推動。首先，我們有一筆合作貸款，其獨特之處在於預先資助資本支出。儘管借款人沒有違約，但我們在第四季度將貸款轉為持有待售，預計將在第一季出售。

Importantly, this loan is a one-off, and our review did not uncover any other co-op loans similar to this one. Second, we had an additional charge-off of an office loan that became nonaccrual in the third quarter based on an updated valuation. This one was more than we originally expected, and we responded by recalibrating our qualitative factors in the office portfolio to address the issue and increase the ACL coverage on the office portfolio.

重要的是，這筆貸款是一次性的，我們的審查沒有發現任何其他與此類似的合作貸款。其次，我們額外沖銷了一筆辦公貸款，根據最新估值，該貸款在第三季變成了非應計貸款。這個問題超出了我們最初的預期，我們透過重新調整辦公室組合中的定性因素來解決這個問題並增加辦公室組合中的 ACL 覆蓋範圍。

Collectively, these 2 loans accounted for the bulk of the charges we took during the fourth quarter. The other major action we took was regarding our on-balance sheet liquidity. During the fourth quarter, we began preparing to be Regulation YY compliance. This was earlier than we originally anticipated, we thought it prudent to be ready to meet the enhanced liquidity requirement that applies to Category IV banks. Therefore, we have monetized some of our contingent liquidity sources and starts to build our on-balance sheet liquidity during the fourth quarter, which has continued into Q1.

總的來說，這兩筆貸款占我們第四季費用的大部分。我們採取的另一項重大行動是關於資產負債表內的流動性。第四季度，我們開始準備遵守 YY 法規。這比我們最初預期的要早，我們認為為滿足適用於第四類銀行的增強流動性要求做好準備是謹慎的做法。因此，我們已經將一些或有流動性來源貨幣化，並在第四季開始建立表內流動性，這種情況一直持續到第一季。

We realized that this will negatively impact on net interest margin in the short term, but it is essential that we as a newly minted $100 billion bank prudently manage our liquidity. Moving next to net interest margin. The fourth quarter net interest margin came in at 2.82%, down 45 basis points compared to the third quarter. This was 18 basis points lower than our guide of down 27 basis points. The 18 basis points variance to the guidance was largely due to actions related to increase our on-balance sheet liquidity and higher deposit costs.

我們意識到這將在短期內對淨利差產生負面影響，但作為一家新成立的 1000 億美元銀行，審慎管理我們的流動性至關重要。接下來是淨利差。第四季淨利差為2.82%，較第三季下降45個基點。這比我們下調 27 個基點的指導值低 18 個基點。與指導意見的 18 個基點差異主要是由於與增加我們的表內流動性和更高的存款成本相關的行動。

On the lending front, total loans held for investments were up in $624 million or 3% annualized compared to the third quarter of 2023 to $84.6 billion. Most of the growth occurred in the C&I portfolio, partially offset by a decline in multi-family, while the rest of the CRE portfolio remain unchanged. At December 31, 2023, total commercial loans represented 46% of total loans, while multi-family loans represented 44% of total loans, representing significant diversification from a year ago.

在貸款方面，與 2023 年第三季相比，投資持有的貸款總額增加了 6.24 億美元，年化成長率為 3%，達到 846 億美元。大部分成長發生在工商業投資組合中，部分被多戶住宅的下降所抵消，而商業房地產投資組合的其餘部分則保持不變。截至2023年12月31日，商業貸款總額佔貸款總額的46%，而多戶家庭貸款佔貸款總額的44%，與一年前相比顯著多元化。

Turning now to deposits. Total deposits at year-end were $81.4 billion compared to $82.7 million at the end of the third quarter. The decrease was primarily driven by an expected $1.8 billion decrease in custodial deposits related to the Signature transaction. Excluding these deposits, the total deposits increased $457 million or 2% annualized compared to the third quarter, primarily driven by growth in CDs, partially offset by lower noninterest-bearing deposits.

現在轉向存款。年末存款總額為 814 億美元，而第三季末為 8,270 萬美元。這一下降主要是由於與 Signature 交易相關的託管存款預計減少 18 億美元。排除這些存款，總存款較第三季增加 4.57 億美元，年化成長率為 2%，主要是由於存款證成長所推動，但部分被無息存款減少所抵銷。

The shift to higher cost CDs was due to increased competition and customer behavior. Deposits from legacy Signature teams, excluding deposits to the loan portfolio, we did not retain increased $1.5 billion since the end of March. Moving now to expenses, excluding non-interest expense, we -- noncore expenses, which this quarter included the FDIC special assessment of $39 million, total OpEx for the 3 months ended December 31, 2023 were $557 million, down $28 million compared to $585 million for the 3 months ended December 30, 2023.

轉向成本較高的 CD 是由於競爭和客戶行為的加劇。傳統 Signature 團隊的存款（不包括貸款組合的存款）自 3 月底以來沒有保留增加的 15 億美元。現在談談費用，不包括非利息費用，我們——非核心費用，本季包括FDIC 特別評估3900 萬美元，截至2023 年12 月31 日的三個月總營運支出為5.57 億美元，比585 美元減少了2800 萬美元截至2023年12月30日止三個月。

The decrease was primarily driven by compensation and benefits expense due to lower incentive compensation expense, partially offset by higher professional fees. Turning now to our full year 2024 guidance. In the past, we have typically provided us quarterly guidance. However, in order to provide more transparency and to be more in line with industry peer practices, we are providing expanded full year guidance in which we have summarized in our investor presentation on Slides 36 and 37.

這一下降主要是由於激勵性薪酬費用較低而導致薪酬和福利費用下降，但部分被較高的專業費用所抵消。現在轉向我們的 2024 年全年指導。過去，我們通常會提供季度指導。然而，為了提供更大的透明度並更符合行業同行慣例，我們提供了擴展的全年指導，我們在幻燈片 36 和 37 的投資者演示中對此進行了總結。

In 2024, we expect period ending total loans to declined 3% to 5% compared to December 31, 2023. Period total deposits to increase between 3% to 5%. Cash and securities balances to increase $7.5 billion on a combined basis. The net interest margin, 2.4% to 2.5% for the full year, inclusive of actions to increase on-balance sheet liquidity for Regulation YY compliance.

與 2023 年 12 月 31 日相比，我們預計 2024 年期末貸款總額將下降 3% 至 5%。期末存款總額將增加 3% 至 5%。現金和證券餘額合計增加 75 億美元。全年淨利差為 2.4% 至 2.5%，包括為遵守 YY 法規而採取的增加資產負債表內流動性的行動。

Noninterest income in the range of $570 million to $620 million, which includes mortgage-related income of $220 million to $260 million. Operating expenses in the range of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion due to a full year impact from Signature Bank, the full year impact of 13 private banking teams from the former First Republic Bank, Signature Bank Integration deferral for 2025 in order to minimize customer impact and additional costs related to becoming a Category IV bank. Normal compensation and benefits expense increases and approximately $60 million of conversion-related savings from Flagstar.

非利息收入在 5.7 億至 6.2 億美元之間，其中包括 2.2 億至 2.6 億美元的抵押貸款相關收入。由於 Signature Bank 的全年影響、前第一共和銀行 13 個私人銀行團隊的全年影響、Signature Bank 整合推遲到 2025 年以盡量減少對客戶的影響，營運費用在 23 億至 24 億美元之間與成為第四類銀行相關的額外費用。正常的薪資和福利費用增加，Flagstar 與轉換相關的費用節省約 6000 萬美元。

We expect our CET1 regulatory capital ratio for the holding company to be at 10% by year-end 2024, and a 22% full year tax rate. We entered 2024 having taken prudent balance sheet actions as we become a Category IV bank. Importantly, the bank has a solid foundation in place and a proven track record across business cycles. We believe we are positioned well to navigate our growth and development as an organization and deliver for customers, and we are confident that it will enable us to deliver long-term value to stockholders.

我們預計到 2024 年底，控股公司的 CET1 監理資本率為 10%，全年稅率為 22%。進入 2024 年，我們在成為 IV 類銀行時採取了審慎的資產負債表行動。重要的是，該銀行擁有堅實的基礎和跨業務週期的良好記錄。我們相信，我們處於有利位置，能夠引導我們作為一個組織的成長和發展，並為客戶提供服務，我們相信這將使我們能夠為股東提供長期價值。

Finally, I would like to say a special thank you for all of our teammates. We have a fantastic team. And as always, we deeply appreciate the dedication and commitment to our clients, customers and communities. With that, we'll be happy to answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open up the line for questions.

最後，我要特別感謝我們所有的隊友。我們有一支出色的團隊。一如既往，我們深深感謝我們對客戶、顧客和社區的奉獻和承諾。這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的任何問題。接線員，請開通提問線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Ebrahim Poonawala 與美國銀行的電話線。

I guess maybe if we can start on credit. So, obviously, you took a huge reserve build this quarter. Just talk to us in terms of your expectations around losses going forward. So one, what's the reserve build at the end of the fourth quarter cover and what that implies for future reserve build through the course of 2024? And then give us a sense relative to the charge-offs you took in the fourth quarter, 22 basis points. Where do you see credit losses migrating next year? And if you expect any losses to come from the multi-family book?

我想也許我們可以開始賒帳。因此，顯然，本季度您建立了巨大的儲備金。只需與我們談談您對未來損失的預期。那麼，第四季末的儲備建設是多少？這對 2024 年未來的儲備建設意味著什麼？然後讓我們來了解您在第四季沖銷的 22 個基點。您認為明年信貸損失將轉移到哪裡？如果您預計多戶家庭帳簿會造成任何損失？

Appreciate the question, Ebrahim. Let me just give you a general view of the fourth quarter and the process on where we came in at. Obviously, we looked at the marketplace, looked at the office perspective and the general office weaknesses throughout the country. And we really did a deep dive in the office portfolio as well as thinking through payment shock and interest rate shock given the rise of interest rates that we've experienced over the past few quarters, in particular, the impact to our customers in respect to repricing.

感謝這個問題，易卜拉欣。讓我向您介紹第四季度的整體情況以及我們進入的過程。顯然，我們著眼於市場，著眼於辦公室的角度以及全國各地辦公室的普遍弱點。鑑於過去幾季我們經歷的利率上升，我們確實深入研究了辦公室投資組合，並考慮了付款衝擊和利率衝擊，特別是對客戶的影響重新定價。

We took into account that perspective and clearly had significant addition to our reserve build, a lot of that reserve build went into the office, in particular, I believe the number one from 200 basis points reserve going from Q3 to 800 basis points reserve in particular for office. So given that we gave out the statistics on the actual performance of the portfolio, there hasn't been a whole lot of change in respect to the NPAs and delinquencies.

我們考慮到了這一觀點，顯然我們的準備金建設有了顯著的增加，其中許多準備金建設都進入了辦公室，特別是，我相信排名第一的準備金從第三季度的200 基點準備金到800 基點準備金用於辦公室。因此，考慮到我們提供了投資組合實際績效的統計數據，不良資產和拖欠情況並沒有太大變化。

However, we had moved some of these loans into a status of criticized [positions] because of the nature of looking -- thinking about the office sector and the reserve build out with the anticipation of office still having difficulties within the marketplace. That being said, 800 basis points, I believe, gets us very close to in line with our current peer group, which is a new peer group Category IV banks that I indicated in my previous remarks, and we're confident that we continue to look at the portfolio at -- in significant detail as we are now benchmarking ourselves into a marketplace that has changed.

然而，我們已將其中一些貸款置於受到批評的狀態，因為考慮到辦公室部門和儲備建設的性質，預計辦公室在市場上仍會遇到困難。話雖這麼說，我相信 800 個基點使我們非常接近當前的同行群體，這是我在之前的演講中指出的新的同行群體 IV 類銀行，我們有信心繼續看看我們的投資組合——非常詳細，因為我們現在正在以一個已經改變的市場為基準來衡量自己。

No question has changed, and we're focusing on payment shock, interest rate shock and the developments in the commercial space. If you want to meet, John, if you want to add some more comments back to the ACL and the application there as well.

問題沒有改變，我們關注的是支付衝擊、利率衝擊和商業領域的發展。如果您想見見，約翰，如果您想向 ACL 和應用程式添加更多註釋。

Sure, Tom. And besides the office, portion of the ACL build. The other item that Tom mentioned earlier is around the multi-family loan portfolio and the repricing risk in that portfolio, as we see our loans continue to hit their option date and reprice higher, we want to make sure that, that risk is captured in the qualitative factors as well this quarter. So we were able to do that and increase the reserve on multi as well. So we saw increases specifically in office and CRE and multi when you look at a coverage ratio from an ACL perspective.

當然，湯姆。除了辦公室之外，還有 ACL 的一部分。湯姆之前提到的另一個項目是圍繞多戶貸款投資組合以及該投資組合中的重新定價風險，因為我們看到我們的貸款繼續達到其選擇日期並重新定價更高，我們希望確保該風險被捕獲在本季的品質因素也是如此。所以我們能夠做到這一點並增加多方面的儲備。因此，當您從 ACL 的角度來看覆蓋率時，我們特別看到了辦公室、CRE 和多功能領域的成長。

Right. But do you expect that the coverage and the pressure on multi translating into losses on that portfolio?

正確的。但您是否預期多重投資的覆蓋範圍和壓力會轉化為該投資組合的損失？

On the multi-family portfolio, we have not seen significant losses in multi-family with the exception, of course, of the one loan that Tom mentioned, the multi-family co-op loan, which goes up to the multi-family category. And historically, if you look back at what we've had higher levels of substandard throughout the financial crisis throughout the pandemic those -- just the rise in substandard loans does not lead directly to specific losses.

在多戶型投資組合中，我們沒有看到多戶型出現重大損失，當然，湯姆提到的一項貸款除外，即多戶型合作貸款，該貸款上升到多戶型類別。從歷史上看，如果你回顧整個金融危機和整個大流行期間我們的次級標準水平較高的情況，那麼次級貸款的增加並不會直接導致特定的損失。

So we're still very comfortable in the quality of the multi-family portfolio. We're not seeing anything on the early stage delinquency side yet either. We did see a little pop in [30 to 89], but a lot of those loans, we had about $60 million that cleared right after 12/31 in the first couple of weeks of January. So we're not seeing any significant trends in the multi-family portfolio besides the repricing risk that we spoke about.

因此，我們對多戶住宅投資組合的品質仍然非常滿意。我們還沒有看到任何早期犯罪的情況。我們確實在 [30 到 89] 中看到了一些增長，但其中很多貸款，我們有大約 6000 萬美元，在 12 月 31 日之後在一月份的前幾週就清算了。因此，除了我們談到的重新定價風險之外，我們沒有看到多戶投資組合有任何重大趨勢。

Ebrahim, in this -- comment I would add that when you think about how we looked at the forward curve, when we looked at the interest rate environment as of the fourth quarter, we did not take into account changes in future interest rates when we shock cash flow, both the payment shock and interest rate shock. So we believe that's pretty cumulative in the event of a potential effect pivot. But we're assuming that rates stay where they are, and we roll that out for a year and what is the impact on future borrowers as that have to go into year 6, and it will go into an higher structure and to the amortizing structure, and we shock them.

易卜拉欣，在這篇評論中，我想補充一點，當你考慮我們如何看待遠期曲線時，當我們審視截至第四季度的利率環境時，我們沒有考慮到未來利率的變化，當我們現金流衝擊，包括支付衝擊和利率衝擊。因此，我們認為，如果出現潛在的效應樞軸，這將是相當累積的。但我們假設利率保持不變，我們將其推出一年，這對未來借款人有什麼影響，因為這必須進入第六年，它將進入更高的結構和攤銷結構，我們讓他們震驚。

That put a lot of those loans closer to a one-for-one debt service coverage ratio in some cases, slightly below on a pro forma basis, and that will be a substandard view of the asset, although they are in performance status. And as you all know, last year, we had an abundance of customers take the SOFR option when SOFR was much lower. And obviously, they ran through that. They're waiting on the sidelines. They feel very strongly that they are going to exercise their ability to lock in longer-term financing when rates move the other way. So they're sitting on the sideline, staying in the bank, go for positive spread, and we'll make the decisions when there's a possibility of a rate change. That's what we're hearing from our customer base.

在某些情況下，這使得許多貸款接近一對一的償債覆蓋率，略低於預估水平，這將是對該資產的不合格看法，儘管它們處於績效狀態。眾所周知，去年，當 SOFR 低得多時，我們有大量客戶選擇了 SOFR 選項。顯然，他們經歷過這一點。他們在旁邊等著。他們強烈認為，當利率向相反方向變動時，他們將發揮鎖定長期融資的能力。因此，他們坐在場邊，留在銀行，尋求正利差，我們將在利率可能改變時做出決定。這就是我們從客戶群聽到的。

Got it. And maybe, John, just on the net interest margin. So fourth quarter is at 2.82%. Just give us the trajectory of the 2.40% to -- like what do you expect the NIM to reset in the first quarter? And then what -- is that guidance still hold if we get 3 or 4 rate cuts during the year?

知道了。約翰，也許只是淨利差。所以第四季的成長率為 2.82%。請告訴我們 2.40% 的軌跡－您預計第一季淨利差會重置多少？那麼，如果我們年內降息 3 次或 4 次，該指引是否仍然有效？

Yes. Yes. On your second question, yes, the guidance would still hold the 3 rate cuts throughout the year. And if you look at the full year 2.40% to 2.50% margin, we're comfortable with that for the first quarter as well, probably a little closer in the first quarter to the lower end of that spectrum, but we're comfortable with the guide both for the year and for end of the first quarter.

是的。是的。關於你的第二個問題，是的，指導意見仍將維持全年3次降息。如果你看看全年 2.40% 至 2.50% 的利潤率，我們對第一季度的利潤率也感到滿意，第一季可能更接近該範圍的下端，但我們對第一季的利潤率感到滿意全年和第一季末的指南。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

So I want to follow up on net interest income. So you guys gave us most of the components for the 2024 guide without net interest income. You probably noticed your stock trading at $7 premarket, which I think is a 20- or 25-year low. And it's because all of us are running the math on earning asset levels, applying the NIM guide and you get earnings that are down like 40% if you do that. Is that what you guys are guiding to for 2024?

所以我想跟進一下淨利息收入。所以你們給了我們 2024 年指南的大部分內容，但沒有淨利息收入。您可能注意到您的股票盤前交易價格為 7 美元，我認為這是 20 或 25 年來的最低點。這是因為我們所有人都在計算收益資產水平，應用 NIM 指南，如果你這樣做，你的收益會下降 40% 左右。這就是你們 2024 年的目標嗎？

So the guide we gave, when you look at net interest margin, you see where the loans come down and with deposits increasing that is not exactly where the totals we're seeing from down 40%. I'm not quite sure exactly how you came up with that number, but you got to look at some of the security builds as well and the cash on the balance sheet. So when you put all that together, from an earnings perspective, that sounds much lower than what we would have anticipated that you'd be coming out with.

因此，在我們提供的指南中，當您查看淨利差時，您會看到貸款下降以及存款增加的情況，這與我們看到的下降 40% 的總數並不完全一致。我不太確定你是如何得出這個數字的，但你還必須查看一些安全構建以及資產負債表上的現金。因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，從收益的角度來看，這聽起來比我們預期的要低得多。

Steven, it's Tom. I would also add to John's commentary that we are solving for Reg YY, it's a substantial cash build in the billions of dollars. I think our guide has an additional $7.5 billion on top of 12/31 numbers for 2024. And that's going to really impact until that we rightsize our position on liquidity where we need to be as a Category IV bank have a negative impact on the margin in the short term.

史蒂文，是湯姆。我還要補充約翰的評論，我們正在解決 Reg YY 問題，這是數十億美元的大量現金建設。我認為我們的指南在2024 年的12/31 數字之上還有75 億美元的額外支出。這將產生真正的影響，直到我們調整我們的流動性頭寸，而我們需要成為IV 類銀行，這將對利潤率產生負面影響在短期內。

Over the long term, we hope to normalize our cash positions as we rightsize our businesses and focus on relationship lending, where deposit base comes from the relationship and looking at that lines of businesses that are deposit rich, not deposit scarce. That's the journey as we go into this Category IV peer group. And clearly, this is impacting '24 for sure.

從長遠來看，我們希望透過調整業務規模並專注於關係貸款（其中存款基礎來自關係）並著眼於存款豐富而不是存款稀缺的業務線，使我們的現金頭寸正常化。這就是我們進入第四類同行群體的旅程。顯然，這肯定會影響 24 世紀。

Yes. And there will be pressure, no doubt as we transition from loans to lower-yielding securities or cash. So that absolutely you'll see in that guide on the net interest margin. That's the transition that's going to happen in '24, and then we'll see that start to change as we can continue to grow the portfolio in '25 and beyond.

是的。毫無疑問，當我們從貸款轉向低收益證券或現金時，將面臨壓力。因此，您絕對會在該指南中看到有關淨利差的信息。這就是 24 年將發生的轉變，然後我們將看到這種情況開始發生變化，因為我們可以在 25 年及以後繼續擴大投資組合。

And I would also add, Steven, is that clearly, we haven't seen any activity in multi-family CRE. So it's been about a 90% reduction in activity in originations. There are no real property activities happening right now. So we have a relatively low coupon on the book and billions of dollars that have the possibility of moving either into a higher coupon and off-log balance sheet has to be focused on relationship deposit lending.

我還想補充一點，史蒂文，很明顯，我們還沒有看到多戶商業房地產的任何活動。因此，起源活動減少了約 90%。目前沒有任何房地產活動發生。因此，我們的帳面息票相對較低，而數十億美元有可能轉移到更高的息票，而表外資產負債表必須集中在關係存款貸款上。

And that's clearly the focus as we focused on commercial bank efforts to focus on doing commercial lending. But more importantly, reallocating our resources to businesses and lines of businesses that have a unique return perspective as a commercial bank will service a commercial bank. So it's prudent to expect that a lot of these larger relationships that we have that are not depository relationships will end up gravitating off the balance sheet probably to the government over time as rates reset themselves, and we have the ability to move on those low coupons off balance sheet as we rightsize our position as a full-service commercial bank.

這顯然是我們關注的焦點，因為我們專注於商業銀行努力專注於商業貸款。但更重要的是，把我們的資源重新配置到商業銀行具有獨特回報視角的業務和業務線上，為商業銀行服務。因此，謹慎地預計，隨著利率自行重置，我們擁有的許多非存款關係的較大關係最終可能會從資產負債表中轉移到政府手中，而我們有能力繼續那些低息票隨著我們調整我們作為全方位服務商業銀行的地位，我們將其納入表外。

So if I put together everything you guys just said, why not just give us what you think net interest income will be in 2024? So we're not all guessing and maybe your stock won't trade down to $7. Like John, why don't you just tell us what you -- you might be wrong because you said basically, we did, we just took earning assets, we applied your margin. We said, okay, this is where NII is, fall it out with the other midpoints and it's not substantial.

因此，如果我將你們剛才所說的所有內容放在一起，為什麼不直接告訴我們你們認為 2024 年的淨利息收入會是多少呢？因此，我們並不全都在猜測，也許您的股票不會跌至 7 美元。就像約翰一樣，你為什麼不直接告訴我們你的情況——你可能是錯的，因為你基本上說，我們做了，我們只是拿走了盈利資產，我們應用了你的保證金。我們說，好吧，這就是 NII 的位置，將其與其他中點分開，它並不重要。

You're saying it's not that, but you just cut the dividend, maybe you do your shareholders in favor and tell us what do you think NII will be in 2024? You know better than we do because you know what was impacted fully in the quarter. There are certain actions you took, which didn't fully impact the quarter. So why don't you just give us the color? So why don't just give us the number and make life easy?

你是說不是這樣的，但你只是削減了股息，也許你是為了股東的利益，告訴我們你認為 2024 年 NII 會是什麼？您比我們更了解，因為您知道本季受到的全面影響。您採取了某些行動，但並未完全影響本季。那你為什麼不直接給我們顏色呢？那為什麼不直接給我們號碼，讓生活變得輕鬆呢？

Yes. Absolutely.

是的。絕對地。

You're stocking a 25-year low, I can't imagine you're happy with this. So unless you want -- I don't know why you wouldn't take this opportunity to level set expectations.

你的庫存是 25 年來的最低點，我無法想像你對此感到滿意。因此，除非你願意──我不知道你為什麼不利用這個機會來設定期望。

Steven, we're very focused that the market will truly understand the strategy going forward. We're in a Category IV bank strategy. We were well positioned in the closing of Flagstar at the end of last year, and an opportunity came up to acquire Signature Bank. We took advantage of that opportunity. We're very grateful to have the FDIC approve that transaction, and we're in a different perspective when it comes to our peer group.

史蒂文，我們非常希望市場能真正理解未來的策略。我們採用的是第四類銀行策略。去年年底，Flagstar 關閉時，我們處於有利位置，並且有機會收購 Signature Bank。我們利用了這個機會。我們非常感謝 FDIC 批准交易，並且當涉及到我們的同行時，我們有不同的觀點。

These necessary steps need to happen in respect to rightsizing ourselves in our new category of peers. And clearly, going forward, we're focusing on building the bank in the market where we set itself when it understands the strategy. We appreciate your commentary on the guide. We wanted to be felt it was prudent for us to give some guidance for the full year. As you know, Steven, you've been covering us for a long time, we've always given quarterly guide. We want to expand that.

為了在新的同儕類別中調整自己的規模，需要採取這些必要的步驟。顯然，展望未來，我們將專注於在我們了解策略的市場中建立銀行。我們感謝您對本指南的評論。我們希望讓大家感覺到，為全年提供一些指導是明智的。正如你所知，史蒂文，你已經報道我們很長時間了，我們總是提供季度指南。我們想擴大這一點。

But as John indicated, a lot of this is significant cash balances at a slight negative carry that's impacting the drag in the margin. And as we reset ourselves into the future, we believe that the market will truly understand the expectations of our Category IV expectations both the capital build, which is driven off the dividend adjustment, along with the guidance that we have, which is we feel is something that we felt more transparent as going out of full year, not just the quarter, to show where our CET1 expectations will be at the end of 2024. And more importantly, rightsize ourselves for the future as we build out our new Category IV expectations. In our new dividend.

但正如約翰所指出的，其中很大一部分是大量現金餘額，其利差略有負值，這影響了利潤率。當我們重新審視未來時，我們相信市場將真正理解我們第四類預期的預期，包括由股息調整推動的資本建設，以及我們所擁有的指導，即我們認為我們認為，透過全年（而不僅僅是季度）來展示我們在2024 年底的CET1 預期將更加透明。更重要的是，在我們制定新的IV 類預期時，為未來調整自己的規模。在我們的新股息中。

Your next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

您的下一個問題來自 Dave Rochester 和 Compass Point 的線路。

Just one on the expense side. Where do you guys anticipate finishing the year roughly just on a quarterly basis? I know you had talked about being elevated in the first part of the year as you go through your integrations, if you can talk about -- sorry if I missed it, but the updated timing on the Signature integration would be great?

只是費用方面的一個。你們預計今年以季度為單位大致會在哪裡結束？我知道您曾談到在今年上半年進行整合時會得到提升，如果您能談談 - 抱歉，如果我錯過了，但簽名集成的更新時間會很棒嗎？

Yes. So the updated timing, we pushed the signature integration into 2025, just to ensure we have minimal customer impact and make sure that we've gone through the Flagstar integration process. We're still on track for here in February, get through that integration. So that's why you'll see a little bit less of a cost save in 2024.

是的。因此，根據更新的時間表，我們將簽章整合推遲到 2025 年，只是為了確保對客戶的影響降到最低，並確保我們已經完成了 Flagstar 整合流程。我們仍有望在二月完成整合。因此，到 2024 年，您會發現成本節省量減少。

So your run rate at the end of 2024 will be a little bit higher. Yes, we've guided that the first quarter is typically a higher quarter for us, especially in compensation and benefits and as well as the systems conversion that will happen in February. So you will see the first quarter be the higher quarter. But from a trend perspective, the fourth quarter, when you're going into 2025, will be in that lower end of the range that we gave on an annualized basis with the start of the year at the higher end of the range.

所以2024年底你的運行率會高一點。是的，我們認為第一季對我們來說通常是一個較高的季度，特別是在薪資和福利以及將在二月份進行的系統轉換方面。所以你會看到第一季是較高的季度。但從趨勢的角度來看，進入 2025 年時，第四季將處於我們按年化計算的範圍的下限，而年初則處於該範圍的上限。

Okay. And then just on the credit analysis that you've done for this quarter. It sounds like you're assuming stable rates through year-end, and I'm assuming that incorporates all the repricing you're expecting in the multifamily book through year-end. So it's kind of the catchall for everything that you're looking at through 2024. Is that right?

好的。然後是您本季所做的信用分析。聽起來您假設到年底利率保持穩定，並且我假設這包含了您在年底之前在多戶住宅書中所期望的所有重新定價。所以它是你在 2024 年之前看到的所有事情的總括。對嗎？

Dave, I want to be clear on that. We did a deep dive in the Q4, and we assume rates that are the current level in Q4. We do not anticipate the forward curve adjusting downwards. So we took that into account when we looked at the ACL to establish the risk with respect to repricing.

戴夫，我想澄清這一點。我們對第四季度進行了深入研究，並假設利率是第四季度的當前水準。我們預期遠期曲線不會向下調整。因此，當我們查看 ACL 以確定重新定價的風險時，我們考慮到了這一點。

I believe we have about $3 billion on to [$3 billion] Coming due to reprice in 2024.

我相信我們有大約 30 億至 [30 億美元] 的資金將在 2024 年重新定價。

That was only $3.4 billion.

那隻有 34 億美元。

So when you take that into account as far as what that impacts these loans are going from a very low coupon to the market, with customers decide to lock in a fixed rate versus keep the floating rate as they make the decision. Last year, 80% or maybe more like 90% were taken SOFR option. In the beginning of obviously towards the tail end of '23, it was more like 75% and some of them will grabbing the fixed rate options.

因此，當你考慮到影響這些貸款的因素時，這些貸款將從非常低的票面利率進入市場，客戶在做出決定時決定鎖定固定利率而不是保持浮動利率。去年，80% 甚至 90% 左右的人選擇了 SOFR 選項。顯然，在 23 年開始或接近尾聲時，這一數字更像是 75%，其中一些會選擇固定利率選項。

So it's more compelling for them to take a fixed rate option now, but the rate is still high compared to the current coupon that they're coming out of. I will tell you with the specificity, customers are waiting on the sidelines. There's not a lot of activity. I indicated that 90% reduction in the business. People who are on the sidelines, they're expecting that rates will move in the back half of '24 and they'll make their long-term decisions in the next round of refinancing.

因此，他們現在選擇固定利率選項更具吸引力，但與他們目前的優惠券相比，利率仍然很高。我具體告訴你，客戶在旁邊等待。活動不多。我表示業務減少了90%。持觀望態度的人預計利率將在 24 年下半年發生變化，他們將在下一輪再融資中做出長期決定。

And as I indicated very clearly, we anticipate to focus on relationship deposit lending. So in the event we have a non-relationship model coming at a 3% coupon coming off the books, they'll probably end up in the government unless they want to be a full-service commercial bank line with the bank. That will gravitate our concentration of multi-family down significantly assuming that they're not going to be a full service relationship with the company. That is the strategy going forward. It's going to be relationship lending.

正如我非常明確地指出的那樣，我們預計將重點放在關係存款貸款上。因此，如果我們有一個非關係模型，以 3% 的息票從帳簿上記下來，他們可能最終會進入政府，除非他們想成為一家提供全方位服務的商業銀行。假設多戶家庭不會與公司建立全面的服務關係，這將大大降低我們對多戶家庭的關注。這就是未來的策略。這將是關係貸款。

And clearly, we have an opportunity to take a very low coupon of the portfolio, assuming there's a shift in customer sentiment to lock in their next round of financing, which many of our customers are focusing in the second half of '24.

顯然，假設客戶情緒發生轉變以鎖定下一輪融資，我們有機會獲得投資組合的非常低的息票，我們的許多客戶都在 24 年下半年關注這一輪融資。

So with your bumped up classified loan balance, that assumes all the repricing that you're expecting for this year and where you see those debt service coverage ratios going based on the rates that you're seeing today, is that right?

因此，隨著您的分類貸款餘額增加，假設您今年預期的所有重新定價以及您看到的償債覆蓋率是基於您今天看到的利率，對嗎？

Yes. That's not on the SOFR curve, that's the active fourth quarter.

是的。這不在 SOFR 曲線上，而是活躍的第四季度。

And those 2 options, the fixed option is still 2.50% over 5 and then the SOFR 2.50% over the SOFR, is that right? Those 2 repricing options?

那兩個選項，固定選項仍然是 5 之上的 2.50%，然後 SOFR 是 SOFR 之上的 2.50%，對嗎？那兩個重新定價選項？

Just to be clear, we assume they all went into the SOFR options. So the more punitive option. We took conservatives in there. We do not take the fixed rate option as an option. So we went more conservative and looked at, soon everyone has arrived at the SOFR curve that decide to lock in the next round of refinancing, which also stressed debt service coverage ratio for SOFR versus the fixed rate option is more punitive.

需要明確的是，我們假設它們都進入了 SOFR 選項。所以更具懲罰性的選擇。我們在那裡接納了保守派。我們不選擇固定利率選項。因此，我們變得更加保守，很快地每個人都到達了 SOFR 曲線，決定鎖定下一輪再融資，這也強調 SOFR 的償債覆蓋率與固定利率選項相比更具懲罰性。

And more recently, they've been going into the fixed rate option, right, because that's the least punitive option?

最近，他們開始採用固定利率選項，對吧，因為這是懲罰性最小的選項？

The activity has been very, very slow. But what we indicated probably towards the back end of the fourth quarter of last year, more like 25% of them are locking in some fixed rate terms. It's still a high percentage of them willing to roll SOFR, well the expectation rates are going to be projected to go lower in '24.

活動進行得非常非常緩慢。但我們可能在去年第四季末表示，其中 25% 的人鎖定了某些固定利率條款。他們中仍然有很高比例願意推出 SOFR，預計 24 年利率將會降低。

Got it. And where is the multi-family reserve now? How much of that provision went into the multi-family book versus the office book...

知道了。多戶住宅保護區現在在哪裡？與辦公室帳簿相比，該撥款中有多少進入了多戶家庭帳簿...

Yes, when you look at the allowance coverage ratio quarter-over-quarter is up 95%. So we went from 42 basis points to 82 basis points.

是的，當你看一下津貼覆蓋率季度環比上升了 95%。所以我們從 42 個基點上升到 82 個基點。

Historical losses is at [13] Lifetime losses at 13 .

歷史損失為 [13] 終身損失為 13 。

Your next question comes from the line of Casey Haire with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Casey Haire 和 Jefferies 的對話。

So a question on the 10% CET1 target. I kind of reiterate what Steve was talking about with the PPNR guide relative to consensus. And I'm coming out at like $875 million for next year, which I know you guys are talking about the balance sheet loans down, so you get some deleveraging on the risk-weighted asset front. But it's basically to get to that 10% that 90 bps of CET1 build. Credits going -- provision is going to have to be de minimis by my math. So kind of, again, I want to address what are you guys baking in for provision to get to that 10% level? And is that aggressive?

那麼關於 10% CET1 目標的問題。我有點重申 Steve 在 PPNR 指南中所說的與共識相關的內容。明年我的預算約為 8.75 億美元，我知道你們正在談論資產負債表貸款的下降，因此風險加權資產方面會得到一些去槓桿化。但基本上是為了達到 CET1 的 90 個基點所建構的 10%。根據我的計算，準備金必須是最低限度的。那麼，我想再次談談你們為了達到 10% 的水平而準備做些什麼？這具有侵略性嗎？

Yes. I mean if you look at the provision that we took in the fourth quarter, we're not -- we're expecting that, that covers the emerging risks and the portfolio that we have currently. As you know, through CECL, external factors, changes in the portfolio, macroeconomic changes is going to impact where our provision is going forward.

是的。我的意思是，如果你看看我們在第四季度採取的準備金，我們預計，這涵蓋了新興風險和我們目前擁有的投資組合。如您所知，透過 CECL，外部因素、投資組合的變化、宏觀經濟變化將影響我們的供應的未來發展。

So historically, if you look at where our provisions have been, they have not been as big as, of course, we took in the fourth quarter. We are very comfortable with the early delinquencies that we're seeing and those trends have not dramatically jumped up. So when you look at that concept of where the provision can be, we'll flow it through, of course, our CECL models and go through that process.

因此，從歷史上看，如果你看看我們的撥備情況，你會發現它們當然沒有我們第四季的撥備那麼大。我們對所看到的早期拖欠情況感到非常滿意，而且這些趨勢並沒有急劇上升。因此，當您查看該條款的概念時，我們當然會透過我們的 CECL 模型來傳遞它並完成該過程。

But yes, there's not a -- anywhere near a significant provision as we saw in the third and the fourth quarter combined in 2024 that we're expecting right now given what we're seeing in the portfolio and in the portfolio dynamics. We do appreciate that substandard and criticized loans, of course, could still increase from here, and that's something that we will manage through as we go forward.

但是，是的，考慮到我們在投資組合和投資組合動態中看到的情況，我們現在預計 2024 年第三季和第四季的總和不會有任何重大準備金。當然，我們確實意識到，不合格和受到批評的貸款仍然可能會從現在開始增加，這是我們在前進過程中解決的問題。

But when we're looking at that potential, that's what we've tried to capture in our CECL modeling with the facts that we know right now.

但當我們考慮這種潛力時，這就是我們試圖利用我們目前所知的事實在 CECL 模型中捕捉到的東西。

Yes, Casey, it's Tom. Just obviously, the dividend adjustment, adding back to accretive of capital is also forecasted in that 10% CET1 for the year.

是的，凱西，是湯姆。顯然，股利調整、增加資本增值也預計在今年的 10% CET1 中進行。

That's right. As well as the shrink in RWA is we're taking loans down, and we're growing it with cash and 0% securities to a lesser extent, of course, 20% security is in the Fannie and Freddie space.

這是正確的。除了 RWA 的縮減之外，我們還減少了貸款，並在較小程度上用現金和 0% 的證券來增加貸款，當然，20% 的擔保是在房利美和房地美領域。

Okay. So of the criticized assets in office and in multi-family, it looks collectively, it looks at about $4 billion. How much of that is coming due in '24?

好的。因此，在辦公室和多戶住宅中受到批評的資產中，總的來說，大約有 40 億美元。其中有多少將在 24 年到期？

From a maturity perspective, it's a very, very low number. From an option perspective, it's a very manageable amount because when you look kind of through why it would be substandard is it's -- it was coming through in that year bucket that Tom mentioned. So when we're looking at repricing risk. A lot of the substandard category would be the stuff that's coming through in the next 12 months from a repricing perspective.

從成熟度的角度來看，這是一個非常非常低的數字。從選擇權的角度來看，這是一個非常可控的金額，因為當你仔細研究為什麼它會不合格時，它是在湯姆提到的那一年中實現的。因此，當我們考慮重新定價風險時。從重新定價的角度來看，許多不合格類別將在未來 12 個月內出現。

So when we look at the -- especially on the multi side, those would be coming up to their option date, a large portion of that number. And that's due to the fact that that's how we're capturing that repricing risk is that getting to that 1 0 or just over or just under 1 0 coverage ratio.

因此，當我們觀察時，尤其是在多邊方面，這些人將在他們的選擇日期之前，佔該數字的很大一部分。這是因為我們捕捉重新定價風險的方式是達到 1 0 或略高於或略低於 1 0 的覆蓋率。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

John, the slide mentioned a goodwill impairment test. And I know in the past, when banks have had to write-off goodwill, it's led to the dividend. I assume this is a little bit reverse order, right? You cut the dividend first and may impair intangibles, goodwill going forward. Is that kind of the right way to read that?

約翰，幻燈片提到了商譽減損測試。我知道，在過去，當銀行必須沖銷商譽時，就會產生股利。我認為這有點顛倒順序，對吧？你先削減股息，可能會損害未來的無形資產和商譽。這是正確的閱讀方式嗎？

Well, we're in the middle of evaluating the goodwill on our balance sheet and going through the process to see and evaluate if there is any impairment of goodwill. And as you know, that goodwill stems from transactions back to 2003. But we will evaluate that based on the facts in the fourth quarter and what we're looking at now as part of our impairment analysis, and we'll make that decision.

嗯，我們正在評估資產負債表上的商譽，並透過整個過程來查看和評估商譽是否存在任何減損。如您所知，該商譽源於 2003 年的交易。但我們將根據第四季度的事實以及我們現在作為減損分析的一部分所看到的內容進行評估，然後我們將做出決定。

Okay. But if you were to impair it, would there be any subsequent action you think would need to happen, I guess, is my question.

好的。但如果你要損害它，你認為需要採取任何後續行動，我想，這是我的問題。

Now from a capital -- from a regulatory capital ratio, the goodwill impairment wouldn't impact regulatory capital ratios. So there's not anything else that I would expect.

現在從資本來看，從監理資本比率來看，商譽減損不會影響監理資本比率。所以我沒有什麼期望的。

Okay. Great. And then maybe, Tom, for you. Whether it's a 50% or 40% cut to numbers, I think we can work through our numbers. But the ROE is going to be, by my math, kind of mid- to upper single digits. How do we think about just the ROE constructed this company now that you're through $100 billion -- understanding you've got some near-term headwinds. But how do you think about ROE?

好的。偉大的。湯姆，也許對你來說。無論是削減 50% 還是 40% 的數字，我認為我們都可以解決我們的數字問題。但根據我的計算，股本回報率將是中上個位數。既然你的資產已經達到 1000 億美元，我們如何看待僅僅透過股本回報率建立這家公司——了解你近期遇到了一些阻力。但您如何看待 ROE？

Good question. I mean obviously, '24 is going to be the year of the category IV comparatives for us. We have some heavy lifting to focus on regarding balance sheet metrics, the ACL, which we built up significantly, the dividend adjustment as we build CET1. But going forward, when we think about the long-term prospects of the business model, the company is in a unique position to compete.

好問題。我的意思顯然是，24 年對我們來說將是第四類比較的一年。我們有一些繁重的工作需要專注於資產負債表指標、ACL（我們在建立 CET1 時大力建立的 ACL）以及股利調整。但展望未來，當我們考慮商業模式的長期前景時，該公司處於獨特的競爭地位。

We're focused on being within the median peer group over time. and we'll be gravitating with a significant enhanced liquidity position as a result of Reg YY. That's really driving the margin under pressure in '24. As we reset the cost structure as we integrate the systems, the processes and build out the businesses and we focus on businesses that have higher returns to the company. We focus on relationship banking, we would like to be in the median peer over time. It's not going to happen in '24, but that's the strategy over the longer term as the market understands the longer-term strategy to be a Category IV bank as peer group has changed dramatically.

隨著時間的推移，我們專注於躋身同儕的中位數。由於 Reg YY，我們將被顯著增強的流動性部位所吸引。這確實使 24 年的利潤率面臨壓力。當我們整合系統、流程並建立業務時，我們會重新調整成本結構，並專注於為公司帶來更高回報的業務。我們專注於關係銀行業務，我們希望隨著時間的推移成為同行中的中位數。這不會在 24 年發生，但這是長期策略，因為市場了解成為 IV 類銀行的長期策略，因為同業群體已經發生了巨大變化。

Going from $9 billion prior to the acquisition of Signature in March into that right catapulted in that $100 billion club we have some balance sheet items that we need to focus on. And we believe we will focus in the Q4 to address some of those items, the capital build we talked about. Now it's going to be about operating effectively as an institution on enhanced potential standards and risk governance framework that's necessary as we roll out this Category IV bank. And over time, if you think about the median peer group over time, that's what we'll strive for. It's not going to be '24 story, it's going to be a long-term story, and hopefully, the market will truly understand the long-term story as they reset ourselves as a Category IV bank.

從 3 月收購 Signature 之前的 90 億美元，到現在的 1000 億美元俱樂部，我們需要專注於一些資產負債表項目。我們相信，我們將在第四季度重點解決其中一些問題，即我們談論的資本建設。現在，重點是作為一個機構有效運作，加強潛在標準和風險治理框架，這是我們推出第四類銀行所必需的。隨著時間的推移，如果你考慮到隨著時間的推移，同儕團體的中位數，這就是我們將努力的目標。這不會是 24 小時的故事，這將是一個長期的故事，希望市場在將自己重新定位為 IV 類銀行時能夠真正理解長期的故事。

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Marinac with Janney Montgomery Scott.

你的下一個問題來自克里斯多福·馬裡納克和詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特的對話。

John, I know you talked a little bit about the migration of criticized assets. What are your thoughts that has to happen on those? And again, what did you recognize that, that could go wrong from here?

約翰，我知道您談到了一些受批評資產的遷移問題。您對這些有什麼想法？再說一遍，你從這裡意識到什麼可能會出錯？

So -- yes when you look at the migration, a lot of it will do partially to interest rates. So depending on what happens to the 5-year part of the curve, that can change dramatically the trajectory of, especially the multifamily book. We're seeing the loans that hit their option date take that floating rate option. That is not the typical spot that these borrowers want to be.

所以——是的，當你觀察這種遷移時，你會發現其中很多都會對利率產生一定的影響。因此，根據曲線的 5 年部分發生的情況，這可能會極大地改變多戶家庭書籍的軌跡。我們看到到達選擇日期的貸款採用浮動利率選擇。這並不是這些借款人想要的典型情況。

So depending on what happens with rates, we can see some movement pretty quickly in that portfolio from a paying off perspective or just the rerating of that portfolio. As rates start to drop and the payment shock gets less and less, and we start to see more and more information on '23 financials and how the cash flows and the net operating income is coming on, that will start the trend of getting these closer and closer due out of the criticized buckets.

因此，根據利率發生的情況，我們可以從回報的角度或僅重新評估該投資組合的角度很快就看到該投資組合的一些變動。隨著利率開始下降，支付衝擊越來越小，我們開始看到越來越多有關 23 年財務狀況的資訊以及現金流和淨營業收入的情況，這將開始趨勢越來越接近並更接近於受到批評的桶子。

That's kind of the thought process we're looking at as it's dependent on interest rates and where they're headed. Given the trend we're starting to see now, we're hoping that, that's abated, then we could see less of that repricing risk from the customers.

這就是我們正在考慮的思考過程，因為它取決於利率及其方向。鑑於我們現在開始看到的趨勢，我們希望這種情況有所減弱，然後我們可以看到客戶的重新定價風險較小。

I just want to reiterate the magnitude of what we've seen historically with the customers that running in place, we were doing $8 billion a year in net originations as a company, and we ran in place. The growth was in mid-single digits net loan growth. And when we were stand-alone NYCB franchise focusing on multi-family lending.

我只是想重申我們歷史上所看到的客戶就地運營的規模，作為一家公司，我們每年的淨發起額為 80 億美元，而且我們就地運營。淨貸款成長幅度為中個位數。當我們是獨立的 NYCB 特許經營商時，專注於多戶家庭貸款。

Last year, our originations were indicated down 90%. We did about $100 million versus a very small number. $800 million. So that's a significant drop of activity. If things were to really focus on the next round of refinancing and locking in your longer-term funding scenario as a client, they're on the sideline, and they're going to focus on what's the next 5- to 10-year financing deal they'll tend to look at. And we feel very strongly that many customers are focusing on -- back after '24 to make that longer-term decision with the expectation that the Fed is in a position to pivot, which will have a position on our customers to take advantage of long-term financing.

去年，我們的起源下降了 90%。我們做了大約 1 億美元，而這個數字很小。 8億美元。所以這是活動的顯著下降。如果事情真正關注下一輪再融資並鎖定您作為客戶的長期融資方案，他們就會處於觀望狀態，他們將關注下一個 5 到 10 年的融資他們會傾向於關注的交易。我們強烈感覺到，許多客戶在 24 年後都將重點放在做出長期決策上，期望美聯儲能夠進行調整，這將使我們的客戶能夠利用長期的優勢。定期融資。

Right now, if they lock in a fixed rate coupon, it's more attractive than the SOFR option. Many customers will choose to the SOFR option as they're looking to make those decisions as we go into the back half '24. We talked about the $3 billion coming due. Last year, most of those loans are SOFR, we see a little bit of a shift to fixed rate. At the same time, there's a significant appetite by the agencies to take these types of loans. And we're going to be very focused to rightsize our position to ensure that relationship lending stays on the book and nonrelationship lending will move outside of the portfolio as we reduce our exposure to this area and put our cash flows into businesses that have higher returns as a firm.

現在，如果他們鎖定固定利率優惠券，它比 SOFR 選項更具吸引力。許多客戶會選擇 SOFR 選項，因為他們希望在我們進入 24 年下半年時做出這些決定。我們討論了即將到期的 30 億美元。去年，大部分貸款都是 SOFR，我們看到有一點轉向固定利率。同時，各機構對此類貸款的興趣也很大。我們將非常專注於調整我們的頭寸，以確保關係貸款保留在帳面上，而非關係貸款將移出投資組合，因為我們減少了對該領域的敞口，並將現金流投入到回報率更高的業務中作為一家公司。

Tom. That's helpful background. And just a follow-up, I guess, is do any of your borrowers have alternatives outside of the banking industry, could they go to alternative funds? Or is that interest rate simply too great for them to consider?

湯姆.這是很有幫助的背景。我想，接下來的問題是，你們的借款人在銀行業之外還有其他選擇嗎？他們可以選擇另類基金嗎？或者這個利率對他們來說太高了以至於無法考慮？

Great point. I mean, look, the government is open for business. They are a huge appetite for this product mix. The agency is always one of our largest competitors. There's other banking competition as well as some of the largest banks in the country. We're pricing our risk accordingly. We feel very strongly that it's going to be a relationship-driven model that will focus on true customer relationships and ultimately, our largest competitor is Fannie and Freddie, and they have probably closer to collectively to them, $200 billion of an appetite on an annual basis.

很棒的一點。我的意思是，看，政府對商業開放。他們對這種產品組合有著巨大的興趣。該機構始終是我們最大的競爭對手之一。還有其他銀行業的競爭以及該國一些最大的銀行。我們正在相應地定價我們的風險。我們強烈感覺到，這將是一個關係驅動的模式，將重點放在真正的客戶關係上，最終，我們最大的競爭對手是房利美和房地美，他們可能更接近他們，每年2000 億美元的胃口。基礎。

There hasn't been any activity. Last year was the lowest activity we've seen, actually lower than -- even during the pandemic. So we're in a unique position, given the fact that there's no activity. But when activity does pick up and rates do tend to move, customers will find the best vehicle and the government is very accommodated there.

沒有任何活動。去年是我們所見過的最低的活動，實際上甚至低於大流行期間的水平。因此，鑑於沒有任何活動，我們處於一個獨特的位置。但是，當活動確實增加並且價格確實發生變化時，客戶就會找到最好的車輛，而政府也會非常包容。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Moss with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自史蒂夫·莫斯和雷蒙·詹姆斯的對話。

Just kind of -- on the loan side here, just given the change in the growth outlook curious how are you guys thinking about commercial real estate concentrations relative to capital and how we're thinking about the loan portfolio remixing here going forward?

只是在貸款方面，考慮到成長前景的變化，好奇你們如何看待商業房地產相對於資本的集中度，以及我們如何考慮未來貸款組合的重新混合？

Yes, great question, Steve. And obviously, we're targeting down on growth. That's really driven off of my dialogue talking about customers going to the government versus staying on our portfolio is not relationship. We are moving towards a relationship lending through a bank focus. And clearly, a lot of the lines of business which are high-return businesses will have the ability to build up our C&I book over time.

是的，很好的問題，史蒂夫。顯然，我們的目標是下調成長。這確實是從我的對話中得出的，我們談論的是客戶向政府求助還是留在我們的投資組合中，這不是關係。我們正朝著以銀行為中心的關係貸款方向發展。顯然，隨著時間的推移，許多高回報業務將有能力建立我們的 C&I 帳簿。

we have Reggie Davis here who can talk us about some of those specific files as well as Lee Smith and the warehouse. But clearly, we have a focus on moving out of a high degree of concentration, which you indicated and focus on relationship running and moving the cash flows into higher-return businesses.

雷吉·戴維斯（Reggie Davis）在這裡，他可以向我們介紹一些具體文件以及李·史密斯（Lee Smith）和倉庫。但顯然，我們的重點是擺脫您所指出的高度集中，並專注於關係管理並將現金流轉移到回報率更高的業務中。

Yes, sure. I mean I think yes, from a warehouse lending point of view, as you know, we're the second largest warehouse lender. If you look at the mortgage market in Q4, it was down 12%, but our warehouse and MSR outstandings were flat. And I think we benefited from dislocation in the market, and we've grown market share from a mortgage finance point of view, and we're also leveraging those relationships from a deposit point of view.

是的，當然。我的意思是，我認為是的，從倉庫貸款的角度來看，如您所知，我們是第二大倉庫貸款人。如果你看看第四季度的抵押貸款市場，它下降了 12%，但我們的倉庫和 MSR 未償還貸款持平。我認為我們受益於市場的混亂，從抵押貸款融資的角度來看，我們已經擴大了市場份額，而且從存款的角度來看，我們也正在利用這些關係。

So as I've mentioned before, we picked up a cash and treasury management team as part of the Signature acquisition, and they're working very closely with our warehouse team and our mortgage team to leverage deposits from our TPOs, warehouse borrowers, MSR borrowers and the MSR owners we subservice for. And right now, we're probably generating anywhere from $9 billion to $11 billion of deposits from that mortgage ecosystem that we touch.

正如我之前提到的，作為 Signature 收購的一部分，我們組建了一個現金和財務管理團隊，他們與我們的倉庫團隊和抵押團隊密切合作，利用我們的 TPO、倉庫借款人、MSR 的存款我們為其提供服務的借款人和MSR 所有者。目前，我們可能從我們接觸的抵押貸款生態系統中產生 90 億至 110 億美元的存款。

Maybe just put it this way. Is there a commercial real estate to total capital ratio you guys are targeting longer term that we should think about going forward here?

也許就這麼說吧。你們是否有一個我們應該考慮的長期目標商業房地產與總資本的比率？

No. I mean, look, if you call about multi-family, I think our CRE ratio is probably in the mid -- low 100s. Is that right, John? Low 100s. But when you look at our legacy multi-family portfolio, which we've been doing for multiple decades, and we have a long track record of success there.

不。我的意思是，如果你打電話詢問多戶住宅，我認為我們的 CRE 比率可能在 100 左右。是這樣嗎，約翰？低100。但是，當你看到我們遺留的多戶住宅投資組合時，我們已經做了幾十年，你會發現我們在這方面擁有悠久的成功記錄。

We're going to look at, like I indicated, very specifically, relationship deposit lending. So as we look at the marketplace, we have the lowest interest rates we've had in our [Republic Elite] that's going to have to make a decision in the out quarters and years ahead. You're going to be very prudent to manage that risk and manage the CRE concentrations and move it into higher-yielding businesses, assuming these customers are not depositors. It's going to be deposit driven. That's going to be a significant shift on our concentration by that business strategy as becoming a full-service commercial bank.

正如我所指出的，我們將非常具體地研究關係存款貸款。因此，當我們審視市場時，我們的[共和國精英]利率是最低的，我們必須在未來幾季和幾年內做出決定。假設這些客戶不是儲戶，您將非常謹慎地管理該風險並管理商業地產集中度並將其轉移到收益較高的業務中。這將是存款驅動的。這將是我們業務策略重點的重大轉變，即成為一家提供全方位服務的商業銀行。

Okay. And maybe just one on office here. I mean, obviously, a big driver of the reserve build. As you guys stress to test that portfolio, is this -- do we think about this as a true up of the office reserve allocation? Or should we expect further reserve build of this level?

好的。也許這裡只有一個人在辦公室。我的意思是，顯然，這是儲備建設的一個重要動力。當你們強調測試該投資組合時，我們是否認為這是辦公室儲備分配的真正上升？或者我們應該期待這個水準的進一步儲備建設嗎？

So we did a really, as Tom mentioned earlier, a really deep dive on the office portfolio and really took into account some of the more recent appraisals we're seeing and what we're seeing in that sector and really tried to capture that risk in that portfolio.

因此，正如湯姆之前提到的，我們對辦公大樓投資組合進行了真正的深入研究，並真正考慮到了我們所看到的一些最新評估以及我們在該領域所看到的情況，並真正嘗試捕捉這種風險在該投資組合中。

So the 800% coverage -- 800 basis points of coverage that we have there, we're comfortable with right now. We still have 2 loans that are the same loans we talked about in the third quarter that are sitting in nonaccrual. We haven't seen any other significant trends from a delinquency perspective yet in that portfolio. So we're comfortable with where we are now. We'll continue to revisit it, of course, as we get additional appraisals in for properties that have been rated that have been criticized.

因此，我們現在對 800% 的覆蓋率——800 個基點的覆蓋率感到滿意。我們仍有兩筆貸款與我們在第三季討論的貸款相同，屬於非應計貸款。從拖欠角度來看，我們尚未在該投資組合中看到任何其他重大趨勢。所以我們對現在的處境感到滿意。當然，我們將繼續重新審視它，因為我們將對已評級但受到批評的房產進行更多評估。

But as of now, we're comfortable with where that is at an 8% coverage ratio. I think we've captured a lot of the risk in that portfolio that we've seen so far.

但截至目前，我們對 8% 的覆蓋率感到滿意。我認為我們已經在迄今為止看到的投資組合中捕獲了很多風險。

Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞（Manan Gosalia）。

On the capital side, can you talk a little bit more about how we should think about RWA migration from here? So I know you're bringing your loans down as we move through 2024. But at the same time as some of these criticized assets move into NPLs, is there another push on RWAs? Is there another denominator effect for capital that we should be thinking about next year?

在資本方面，您能多談談我們應該如何考慮從這裡開始的 RWA 遷移嗎？所以我知道，隨著 2024 年的到來，你們將減少貸款。但在這些受到批評的資產中的一些資產轉入不良貸款的同時，是否還會有對 RWA 的進一步推動？明年我們是否應該考慮另一種資本分母效應？

Yes. I mean as -- if nonaccruals do increase, then yes, we will go to 150% from an RWA perspective, but the big benefit that we're seeing from an RWA reduction is the actual loan portfolio reducing because the additions on the asset side in cash and securities, as we mentioned earlier, are at 0%. When we're looking at cash, of course, Ginnie securities at 0% and to a much lesser extent than Fannie and Freddie at 20%.

是的。我的意思是，如果非應計項目確實增加，那麼從 RWA 的角度來看，我們將達到 150%，但我們從 RWA 減少中看到的最大好處是實際貸款組合減少，因為資產方面的增加正如我們之前提到的，現金和證券的比例是0%。當然，當我們考慮現金時，吉尼證券的利率為 0%，比房利美和房地美的 20% 的利率要低得多。

So that's the major items in the RWA walk, as you mentioned. It's the offset between any changes that we're estimating in nonaccrual compared to that more significant loan decline and RWA decline from the loan portfolio since there's no pickup on the security side there.

正如您所提到的，這就是 RWA 步行的主要項目。這是我們在非應計項目中估計的任何變化與貸款組合中更顯著的貸款下降和 RWA 下降之間的抵消，因為那裡的擔保方面沒有回升。

Got it. And then on the percentage of book that you've scrubbed you're at current valuations. There haven't been many transactions. There hasn't been much price discovery. So how hard do you think you've hit valuations as you build reserves in that multi-family as well as the office book?

知道了。然後是你以目前估值刪除的帳面百分比。沒有太多交易。價格發現不多。那麼，當你在多戶住宅和辦公室帳簿中建立儲備時，你認為你的估值達到了多大程度？

In the office book, I mean, we've looked at not only some transactions, as you mentioned, there's not a lot in the marketplace, but we have looked at the actual appraisals that we're getting and looking at the percentage change peak the trough and what those appraisals are and using that from a qualitative perspective to add to our office reserves.

我的意思是，在辦公簿中，我們不僅研究了一些交易，正如您提到的，市場上的交易並不多，而且我們還研究了我們獲得的實際評估，並研究了百分比變化峰值低谷以及這些評估是什麼，並從定性的角度使用它來增加我們的辦公室儲備。

On the multi-family portfolio, as we mentioned, we took rates where they are now. Took the more punitive structure that the option loans could turn into, which is the SOFR plus 2.50% and hit that along with any potential amortization that could come in place. So we really think we hit the portfolio from a repricing perspective on the multi side, especially for those loans coming over the next 12 months.

正如我們所提到的，對於多戶投資組合，我們採用了目前的利率。採用選擇權貸款可能變成的更具懲罰性的結構，即 SOFR 加 2.50%，並與任何可能到位的潛在攤銷一起實現。因此，我們確實認為我們從多邊重新定價的角度來打擊投資組合，特別是對於未來 12 個月內發放的貸款。

Your next question comes from the line of David Smith with Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自自治研究中心的大衛史密斯（David Smith）。

The actions you're taking to tighten up from a regulatory perspective affect the pace of the private banking build out at all or the earn-backs that you're expecting there?

您從監管角度採取的收緊行動是否會影響私人銀行業務的擴張速度或您預期的獲利回報？

So obviously, we are highly regulated, and we're focused on enhanced prudential standards. But in respect to Signature and the teams that we've built, they're doing a phenomenal job as indicated in my prepared remarks, they've had a great year. They really have stability for March. We're very excited about the stability.

顯然，我們受到嚴格監管，並且我們專注於增強審慎標準。但就 Signature 和我們建立的團隊而言，正如我準備好的演講中所表明的那樣，他們做得非常出色，他們度過了美好的一年。他們三月確實很穩定。我們對穩定性感到非常興奮。

And more importantly, they had growth, $1.5 billion net growth, and the teams are geared up. So First Republic team's started onboarding and focusing on relationship and white-glove service. I bet you, David, if you want to expand on some of the initiatives that we have working with the teams want to expand upon that as well.

更重要的是，他們實現了成長，淨成長 15 億美元，而且團隊已經準備好了。因此，First Republic 團隊開始入職並專注於關係和白手套服務。我敢打賭，大衛，如果你想擴展我們與團隊合作的一些舉措，你也想擴展這一點。

Yes. And I actually want to speak more to the banking group because the private bank consists of the legacy of First Republic teams and legacy Signature teams, but we're now under one envelope. So kind of want to talk about the success and some of the progress that we've made in 2023. We've essentially taken 4 distinct teams and created 1 highly focused banking organization.

是的。事實上，我想與銀行集團多談談，因為私人銀行由第一共和國團隊和簽名團隊的遺產組成，但我們現在處於同一個信封之下。我想談談我們在 2023 年取得的成功和取得的一些進展。我們基本上組建了 4 個不同的團隊，並創建了 1 個高度專注的銀行組織。

And as Tom mentioned earlier, we create a single brand, and we launched that brand internally in midyear, and that's something that seems to have really rallied around. And I think the brand represents the current capabilities and future aspirations of the combined company. We've also completed a restructuring of the banking group in total. So the new structure has some synergies, quite frankly, between the 4 legacy institutions taking advantage of each other's strengths.

正如湯姆之前提到的，我們創建了一個單一品牌，並在年中在內部推出了該品牌，這似乎確實引起了人們的注意。我認為該品牌代表了合併後公司當前的能力和未來的願望。我們也完成了銀行集團的整體重組。因此，坦白說，新的結構在 4 個傳統機構之間發揮了一些協同作用，並利用了彼此的優勢。

And part of creating that new structure was reducing the number of client coverage models from 10 to 3. So now we operate as the private bank, the Commercial Banking group and the Consumer Banking group. And as a result of that, and I think Tom mentioned this, we discontinued operations in several legacy businesses to further focus on relationship banking. And so the translation of that is if we're going to use our balance sheet, we're going to use it to get deposits. And so we combined -- also combined 2 separate branch teams from legacy Flagstar and NYCB under 1 leadership structure.

創建新結構的一部分是將客戶覆蓋模型的數量從 10 個減少到 3 個。所以現在我們作為私人銀行、商業銀行集團和消費者銀行集團運營。因此，我認為湯姆提到了這一點，我們停止了幾項遺留業務的運營，以進一步專注於關係銀行業務。因此，如果我們要使用我們的資產負債表，我們將用它來獲取存款。因此，我們合併了——還將來自傳統 Flagstar 和 NYCB 的 2 個獨立分支團隊合併到 1 個領導結構下。

We've introduced common routines, common client, engagement models, common tools across the entire network. And we've also accelerated onto a common platform with common AI tools across the entire branch network. We've also combined our retail investment business into 1 platform, 1 structure under 1 leader. And then we've also combined our wealth management organization with a clear mandate around teaming up with both the commercial bank and the private bank, the greater relationship experience. And so the legacy First Republic teams and Signature teams are under 1 leader.

我們在整個網路中引入了通用例程、通用客戶、參與模型和通用工具。我們也在整個分公司網路中使用通用人工智慧工具加速了通用平台的發展。我們也將零售投資業務合併為 1 個平台、1 個架構，由 1 位領導者主導。然後，我們也將我們的財富管理組織與與商業銀行和私人銀行合作的明確授權相結合，以獲得更好的關係體驗。因此，傳統的第一共和國團隊和簽名團隊由一位領導者領導。

And together, they comprise the private banking group. And as Tom said, their performance has really been stellar this year. They've recaptured all of the deposits that we lost in March and April time frame, which is about $1.5 billion, $1.6 billion. In addition, the DDA portion of that book has been rock solid at $11 billion, and that's essentially unchanged because that represents the operating accounts that are very much reflective of the relationship nature of those deposits.

他們共同組成了私人銀行集團。正如湯姆所說，他們今年的表現確實非常出色。他們收回了我們在 3 月和 4 月期間損失的所有存款，大約 15 億美元、16 億美元。此外，該帳簿中的 DDA 部分一直堅如磐石，為 110 億美元，基本上沒有變化，因為這代表的營運帳戶在很大程度上反映了這些存款的關係性質。

And then also our retail bank only lost 3% of the deposits in March and April time frame. And quite frankly, we've captured all of that back as well. So those 2 businesses, the private bank and the retail bank are deposit engines for the company. And I might add, from a Signature perspective, we haven't lost any teams. And the addition of the Signature book has actually helped us from a mix perspective in our deposit book. It shifted it from a 39% pre-signature to 25% and CDs, which is actually more in line with our peers. So we feel really good.

然後，我們的零售銀行在 3 月和 4 月期間僅損失了 3% 的存款。坦白說，我們也捕獲了所有這些。因此，私人銀行和零售銀行這兩項業務是該公司的存款引擎。我想補充一點，從簽名的角度來看，我們沒有失去任何球隊。簽名簿的添加實際上從混合角度來看對我們的存款簿有所幫助。它將其從 39% 的預簽名改為 25% 和 CD，這實際上更符合我們的同行。所以我們感覺非常好。

Our deposits actually grew up 5% quarter-over-quarter, and that's a lot -- it has a lot to do with the growth embedded in our retail bank. And in the legacy Signature book, and we expect that to continue, quite frankly. We're starting to see more and more momentum and more success as those teams are part of our larger organization. So all good news stories.

我們的存款實際上比上一季成長了 5%，這個數字很大——這與我們零售銀行的成長有很大關係。坦白說，在傳統的簽名書中，我們希望這種情況能持續下去。我們開始看到越來越多的動力和越來越多的成功，因為這些團隊是我們更大組織的一部分。所以所有的好消息都是好消息。

Okay. So not looking to really take your (inaudible) guess there yet?

好的。所以不想真正接受你的（聽不清楚）猜測嗎？

I think the reality is it's deposit, deposit, deposit. We have a great opportunity with some experienced bank is that are welcome here and the energy, as Reggie indicated, in that long we did answer, which is a lot of positive momentum. There's a lot of positive momentum. The conversion is happening in a few weeks from now. We're excited about that. One platform, one bank, one brand. But what's exciting about is that they are focusing on their white-glove service, what they do.

我認為現實是存款、存款、存款。我們有一個很好的機會與一些經驗豐富的銀行合作，他們在這裡受到歡迎，正如雷吉指出的那樣，我們在很長一段時間內都做出了回應，這是一個很大的積極動力。有很多積極的勢頭。轉變將在幾週後發生。我們對此感到興奮。一個平台、一家銀行、一個品牌。但令人興奮的是，他們專注於他們的白手套服務和他們所做的事情。

It's not really a lending model here. This is about deposit opportunity to service the clients and specifically in the middle market position.

這並不是真正的借貸模式。這是關於為客戶提供服務的存款機會，特別是在中間市場地位。

Okay. And then on capital, do you view the 10% target at the end of this year to be an ending point? Or would you be looking to ultimately get your capital ratios higher?

好的。那麼在資本方面，您認為今年底10%的目標是一個終點嗎？或者您希望最終提高資本比率？

Ultimately, as we think about capital, we were very clear in our public announcement this morning along with our views is that we want to be within the peer group. We have a new group that we have through to pertain to, and that's clearly the focus here. So as we gravitate to that double-digit CET1, the dividend adjustment plus what we'll call it a conservative view of guidance in respect to our balance sheet will generate increasing capital quarter-over-quarter with the expectation over time to be within a few.

最終，當我們考慮資本時，我們在今天早上的公開聲明中非常明確，我們的觀點是我們希望成為同行的一員。我們有一個新的團隊，我們必須融入其中，這顯然是這裡的焦點。因此，當我們傾向於兩位數的 CET1 時，股息調整加上我們稱之為資產負債表的保守指導觀點將產生逐季度增加的資本，預計隨著時間的推移，資本將在很少。

That's the plan over the long term. Clearly, we have a long history of a strong payment in dividend. We have to go through the capital planning process. This is our first submission under the Reg YY with the Fed, that's going to happen in April, and we want to prepare for that accordingly.

這是長期計劃。顯然，我們長期以來一直大力支付股利。我們必須完成資本規劃流程。這是我們根據 Reg YY 向聯準會首次提交的文件，將於 4 月提交，我們希望為此做好準備。

Your next question comes from the line of Brody Preston with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

I wanted just to ask within the deposit book. How much of the increase in CDs was brokered CDs this quarter? And then the uptick in the wholesale borrowings. I'm assuming that's all FHLB, what's the remaining capacity that you have for FHLB borrowings at this point?

我只是想在存款簿上問一下。本季增加的 CD 有多少是經紀 CD 的？然後是批發借款的增加。我假設這就是 FHLB，那麼您目前 FHLB 借款的剩餘能力是多少？

So from an FHLB borrowing perspective, we have, as of 12/31 significant capacity to borrow, and we'll use that to continue to build our liquidity here in the first quarter to, as we mentioned earlier, prepare for Reg YY. So we're very comfortable with the on-balance sheet liquidity and the contingent liquidity we have behind that.

因此，從FHLB 借款的角度來看，截至12 月31 日，我們擁有大量借款能力，我們將利用這一能力在第一季繼續建立我們的流動性，以便正如我們之前提到的那樣，為Reg YY 做好準備。因此，我們對資產負債表內的流動性及其背後的或有流動性感到非常滿意。

From the broker deposit question, broker deposits were up about $1 billion. Broker CDs were up about $1 billion quarter-over-quarter.

從經紀人存款問題來看，經紀人存款增加了約 10 億美元。經紀商 CD 環比成長約 10 億美元。

The influx in the CDs, the rest came from the retail network?

CD 的湧入，其餘的則來自零售網路？

Yes. The rest came from the retail network, we actually raised about $2 billion over about 2 months. And that -- I mean, again, that reflects the strength of our retail franchise. About 72% of that were new to bank and about 28% were existing relationship, and we're able to cross-sell about 15% in on checking accounts. And that's going to set us up for next year in terms of converting some of those single product new clients into DDA accounts, relationship accounts.

是的。其餘的則來自零售網絡，我們實際上在大約 2 個月內籌集了大約 20 億美元。我的意思是，這再次反映了我們零售特許經營的實力。其中約 72% 是銀行新客戶，約 28% 是現有關係，我們能夠交叉銷售約 15% 的支票帳戶。這將為我們明年將一些單一產品新客戶轉化為 DDA 帳戶、關係帳戶做好準備。

And so it's not only -- it's good for the balance sheet, obviously, but long term, it also will add to a cheaper funding base. we feel really good about that. About 6,700 new clients.

因此，這不僅對資產負債表有利，而且從長遠來看，它還將增加更便宜的融資基礎。我們對此感覺非常好。約 6,700 個新客戶。

Okay. Great. And then just on the deposit front again, I guess the 32.7% of the deposits are uninsured, but you also have escrows down this quarter for seasonality. I guess I wanted to ask, is the 32.7% uninsured, a good read on what percent of the deposit base is institutional clients at this point? If not, what percent of the deposit base is institutional clients?

好的。偉大的。然後再次在存款方面，我猜 32.7% 的存款沒有保險，但本季度您也有季節性託管。我想我想問的是，32.7% 的人沒有投保，這是否是一個很好的解讀，說明目前機構客戶佔存款基礎的百分比是多少？如果不是，機構客戶佔存款基礎的百分比是多少？

And then secondarily, we saw at least one other bank that went through some stress on the deposit front earlier this year, signed NDAs with some of its larger depositors. Did you guys consider doing anything like that moving forward with some of your larger depositors so that they can feel good about the health of the balance sheet?

其次，我們看到至少另一家銀行今年稍早在存款方面經歷了一些壓力，並與一些較大的儲戶簽署了保密協議。你們是否考慮過與一些較大的儲戶一起做類似的事情，以便他們對資產負債表的健康狀況感到滿意？

Yes. When you look at some of those uninsured deposits, they're not all institutional by any stretch. There's customers in there. There's businesses in there. So that's not the escrow or entirely large balance institutional deposits. If you look at the organizations we had some of those balances from a 15c3 and that type of money, those types of business institutional-type accounts, we don't have a lot of those deposits at all anymore.

是的。當你觀察一些未投保的存款時，你會發現它們並非全是機構存款。裡面有顧客。裡面有生意。所以這不是託管或全部大額餘額機構存款。如果你看看我們擁有 15c3 和此類資金、此類商業機構類型帳戶的一些餘額的組織，我們根本不再擁有大量存款。

I mean that deposit base that's uninsured is primarily business type deposits and operating accounts. And yes, there's a lot of DDA in there as well.

我的意思是，未投保的存款基礎主要是商業類型存款和經營帳戶。是的，裡面也有很多 DDA。

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens.

你的下一個問題來自馬修·布里斯和史蒂芬斯的對話。

So understanding some of the actions to take in this quarter, the course correct is $100 billion -- over $100 billion bank versus some of your similar-sized peers. Are there additional capital-related actions to be considered apart from CET1? So I'm looking at total risk-based capital, 11.8%. Your peers are at 13.5%. Should we be considering any sort of need for additional sub debt to kind of get you to that peer range? And if so, when?

因此，在了解本季要採取的一些行動後，正確的做法是 1000 億美元——與一些類似規模的同行相比，銀行的價值超過 1000 億美元。除了 CET1 之外，是否還需要考慮其他與資本相關的行動？所以我關注的是基於風險的總資本，11.8%。你的同行為 13.5%。我們是否應該考慮是否需要額外的次級債務才能讓您達到同等級？如果是的話，什麼時候？

So Matt, I appreciate the question. I will tell you that between forward guide along with the dividend adjustment and our targets for CET1, we're focusing on that specific area in respect to building capital. Obviously, we're waiting for the new rules on Basel III. That will come out and it will try to watch us as a Category IV bank over time. But no question, the adjustment on our distribution to shareholders, along with building out the business and running a run rate based on our guidance is where we're focused on the capital build.

馬特，我很欣賞這個問題。我會告訴你，在股息調整的前瞻性指導和我們的 CET1 目標之間，我們專注於建立資本的特定領域。顯然，我們正在等待巴塞爾協議III的新規則。這個結果將會出來，隨著時間的推移，它將試圖將我們視為第四類銀行。但毫無疑問，我們對股東分配的調整，以及根據我們的指導拓展業務和運作運作率，是我們重點關注的資本建設。

So clearly, that's going to put us slightly below the table, but with the expectation of building capital over time and accreting capital going forward.

很明顯，這將使我們略低於排名，但預計會隨著時間的推移累積資本並在未來增加資本。

Okay. And again, understanding this quarter, you took some actions to course correct. Could you give us some balance sheet mix targets once you're done in terms of cash to assets, securities assets? So where you would like to be and by when?

好的。再次，了解本季後，您採取了一些行動來糾正方向。完成現金資產比、證券資產比後，您能給我們一些資產負債表組合目標嗎？那麼您想去哪裡以及什麼時候去？

Yes. Well, the main issue and thought process that we're talking through with this quarter on-balance sheet liquidity is just preparing for Reg YY. So if you look at where we were at 12/31 at 18% with the peers at 25%, we're going to be in that range. We'll be above 18%. So we're going to get to that 22%, 23% range and get closer and closer to peers.

是的。好吧，我們正在討論的本季資產負債表內流動性的主要問題和思考過程只是為 Reg YY 做準備。因此，如果你看看我們 12/31 的比例為 18%，而同行的比例為 25%，我們就會處於這個範圍內。我們將超過 18%。因此，我們將達到 22%、23% 的範圍，並且越來越接近同行。

As you know, our securities portfolio has historically been very small on a percentage basis to total assets. And that securities portfolio is really the main liquidity buffer that we need to keep in place here going forward. So that's why when we look at that portfolio, it will be significantly skewed towards 0% and 20% risk-weighted assets, high-quality liquid assets in order to ensure that we can meet our on-balance sheet liquidity demands and regulations. So I'd say that we'll be much closer to that 25% range of our peers over time, and we'll get there in the first and the second quarter.

如您所知，從歷史上看，我們的證券投資組合佔總資產的百分比非常小。這個證券投資組合確實是我們未來需要維持的主要流動性緩衝。因此，這就是為什麼當我們查看該投資組合時，它將顯著偏向 0% 和 20% 風險加權資產、高品質流動資產，以確保我們能夠滿足表內流動性需求和法規。所以我想說，隨著時間的推移，我們將更加接近同行的 25% 範圍，並且我們將在第一季和第二季實現這一目標。

And when you measure security, are we talking securities assets or total assets because I'm looking at 9%... Okay. So 9% securities assets today that's going to be -- near triple by next quarter?

當你衡量安全性時，我們談論的是證券資產還是總資產，因為我關注的是 9%……好吧。那麼，到下個季度，今天 9% 的證券資產將增加到近三倍？

No. We add cash in there as well, right? So I'm looking at cash and securities as a combined basis as a percentage of total assets, right? And that's how we manage that. That's how we manage on balance sheet liquidity. Normally, that will be more in the securities portfolio. Given the buildup here, it's starting in cash and over time, we'll be putting that out in the securities portfolio.

不，我們也在那裡添加現金，對吧？所以我將現金和證券作為總資產的百分比來考慮，對吧？這就是我們的管理方式。這就是我們管理資產負債表流動性的方式。通常情況下，這在證券投資組合中會更多。考慮到這裡的積累，它從現金開始，隨著時間的推移，我們將把它放入證券投資組合中。

I think it's fair to say that the guide has most of these assets are sitting in liquidity in the form of cash.

我認為可以公平地說，該指南中的大部分資產都以現金形式存在流動性。

Correct. And you assume that the lion's share of whatever you need to do here will be completed by the end of the first quarter? It's not going to drag out throughout the whole year?

正確的。您認為您需要在這裡做的大部分工作將在第一季末完成嗎？不會拖一整年吧？

That's right.

這是正確的。

That is correct. Okay.

那是對的。好的。

And then going back to the CRE concentration. So when you look at the CRE concentration versus peers, is it still appropriate to exclude multi-family given the repricing risk? And do the regulators look at it that way? I know for decade after decade, rent-regulated multi-family has been virtually risk-free. But post 2019, the rental has changes is the new paradigm in the release, in your commentary, you're discussing repricing credit risk here. It feels like the CRE concentration, including multifamily is the right one to look at with all the...

然後回到 CRE 濃度。因此，當您比較商業房地產與同業的集中度時，考慮到重新定價風險，排除多戶住宅是否仍然合適？監理機關也這麼看嗎？據我所知，幾十年來，受租金管制的多戶住宅幾乎沒有風險。但2019年後，租金發生了變化，這是發布中的新範式，在您的評論中，您在這裡討論了信用風險的重新定價。感覺像 CRE 集中，包括多戶住宅，是值得考慮的…

It's a fair point. As you know, we're not going to speak specifically our regulatory conversations, but really, we understand our business very well. We also have a focus on looking at CRE concentration as a much lesser number after we focus on relationship banking. That is the mission of the new Flagstar.

這是一個公平的觀點。如您所知，我們不會具體談論我們的監管對話，但實際上，我們非常了解我們的業務。在我們關注關係銀行業務之後，我們也專注於商業房地產集中度的數字要小得多。這就是新 Flagstar 的使命。

We are going to bank customers that have deposits at the bank and their full relationship deposits. We have an opportunity here to significantly take advantage of market conditions and reduce low-yielding concentration, putting into high-yielding loans, higher-margin businesses over time, which are focused on its relationship with partners lending. That is a meaningful statement as we have no activity in the marketplace.

我們將針對在銀行有存款的銀行客戶以及他們的完整關係存款。我們有機會充分利用市場條件，減少低收益集中度，隨著時間的推移投入高收益貸款、利潤率更高的業務，這些業務重點關注與貸款合作夥伴的關係。這是一個有意義的聲明，因為我們在市場上沒有任何活動。

If you go back to history, when we were doing $8 billion, $9 billion a year in originations, we were running flat at 4% to 5% asset to stay flat. So when the market does react to changes in interest rates and customers look for refinancing, we have a golden opportunity here to take low-yielding coupons off the book. We do sell concentration materially here and move that into high-yielding assets and obviously focus on our liquidity expectations because having a lower compensating balance to the asset is not the focus of the new Flagstar. It's going to be well balanced towards relationship deposit lending. That is the focus of the institution on a combined basis going forward.

如果你回顧一下歷史，當我們每年投入 80 億美元、90 億美元的資金時，我們的資產比率是 4% 到 5%，以保持持平。因此，當市場確實對利率變化做出反應並且客戶尋求再融資時，我們就有一個絕佳的機會取消低收益優惠券。我們確實在這裡大量出售集中度，並將其轉移到高收益資產中，並且顯然專注於我們的流動性預期，因為對資產進行較低的補償餘額並不是新 Flagstar 的重點。關係存款貸款將得到很好的平衡。這是該機構未來綜合發展的重點。

And we think that given the activity last year, as I indicated, it was 90% down there's no activity in the market, although the customer activity that we speak to, they're waiting on the sidelines. And they're going to react when they feel confident the next 5 to 10 years that financing for us. As some had indicated taking fixed rate loans, some will go into the agency now, but the agency has a huge appetite. And when the customer feels prudent that it's trying to lock in the next 5 to 10 years of financing, they will make that decision.

我們認為，鑑於去年的活動，正如我所指出的，下降了 90%，市場上沒有任何活動，儘管我們談到的客戶活動，他們正在觀望。當他們對未來 5 到 10 年為我們提供融資充滿信心時，他們就會做出反應。正如一些人表示接受固定利率貸款的那樣，有些人現在將進入該機構，但該機構的胃口很大。當客戶謹慎地認為自己試圖鎖定未來 5 到 10 年的融資時，他們就會做出這個決定。

And we will work with our customers for balance sheet purposes. And if it's not a true customer relationship, that will be a significant reduction on our CRE concentration.

我們將與客戶合作以實現資產負債表目的。如果這不是真正的客戶關係，我們的 CRE 集中度就會大幅下降。

Over time, I mean there's a lot of peer comp going on this quarter. Over time, the CRE concentration you need to get the peer loans?

隨著時間的推移，我的意思是本季會有很多同行競爭。隨著時間的推移，您需要獲得同業貸款的商業房地產集中度是多少？

Look, it's a huge business model of ours. We have a great track. We have great customers. They have lots of relationships on the deposit side. So we're obviously uniquely different. After we are, and it goes back to our roots. But ultimately, we're a new company. We're a commercial bank evolving from the monoline swift. We're excited about the lines of businesses that we have.

看，這是我們的一個巨大的商業模式。我們有一條很棒的賽道。我們有很棒的客戶。他們在存款方面有很多關係。所以我們顯然是獨一無二的。在我們成為之後，它又回到了我們的根源。但最終，我們是一家新公司。我們是一家從單一銀行迅速發展而來的商業銀行。我們對我們擁有的業務線感到興奮。

We're excited about the opportunity of mortgage in the ecosystem, what side of what Reggie Davis is doing what's his lines of businesses, and we have choices, and it's going to be based on a return on equity model, which is very different in history, where it was given a monoline business, which was multi-family CRE.

我們對生態系統中抵押貸款的機會感到興奮，雷吉戴維斯在做什麼，他的業務是什麼，我們有選擇，它將基於股本回報率模型，這與其他領域非常不同。歷史上，它被賦予了單一業務，即多戶商業房地產。

So we're going to reallocate those resources, take advantage of market conditions and work with our customers. We feel very strongly that just by the near fact that the coupon was coming off the lows, we have an opportunity to move a lot of assets at low coupon to make our balance stronger and earnings profile better.

因此，我們將重新分配這些資源，利用市場條件並與客戶合作。我們強烈感覺到，就在票面即將從低點回落的事實中，我們有機會以低息票轉移大量資產，以使我們的平衡更加強勁，盈利狀況更好。

Okay. Last one for me. The language here around being over $100 billion feels far more urgent today than just a few months ago. Has something changed on the regulatory front in terms of overall standing or time line to be ready for new stress testing? A lot, like I said, a lot of peer comparison here. If so, can you give us some updated time frame milestones? I know you mentioned April submission in terms of being prepared for the -- for stresses?

好的。最後一張給我。今天，關於超過 1000 億美元的言論比幾個月前顯得更加緊迫。監管方面的整體狀況或準備新壓力測試的時間線是否發生了變化？正如我所說，這裡有很多同儕比較。如果是這樣，您能給我們一些更新的時間表里程碑嗎？我知道你提到四月的提交是為了應對壓力？

Matt, we are obviously -- we're not going to speak specifically about regulatory conversations. We're a highly regulated institution and in an industry is probably regulated. But the reality is that we do have an April submission, we've invested our capital position significantly as well as ACL. Those are big steps as we forecast our submission to the Reg YY.

馬特，我們顯然不會具體談論監管對話。我們是一個受到嚴格監管的機構，並且在一個行業中可能受到監管。但實際情況是，我們確實在 4 月提交了一份文件，我們已經像 ACL 一樣大量投資了我們的資本部位。當我們預測向 Reg YY 提交時，這些都是重大步驟。

That's an important milestone. As John indicated, we're doing significant work on Reg YY on down liquidity. We went into the -- we catapulted into the $100 billion club post liquidity prices in March. We were preparing for that last year since it passed over organically. And we -- an opportunity came, and we thought it was a great opportunity for building out the conversion from a thrift model to a commercial bank model, and we are in a unique benchmark now.

這是一個重要的里程碑。正如 John 所指出的，我們正在針對降低流動性的 Reg YY 進行大量工作。 3 月份，我們進入了 1000 億美元的流動性價格俱樂部。去年我們就在為此做準備，因為它有機地過去了。我們－一個機會來了，我們認為這是一個從儲蓄銀行模式轉變為商業銀行模式的絕佳機會，我們現在處於一個獨特的基準。

We're in a different category. There's 8 of us that we benchmark too, and we want to get those ratios in line to that makes sense going forward as we run our business. And I think the market will understand what's in front of us. But more importantly, as we build new Flagstar, we're excited with the team and the energy as they gravitate to hear to come and be part of the brilliant team, we've made significant changes on the risk side, significant changes on bringing people in house as a larger institution. That's the journey that we're focusing on here.

我們屬於不同的類別。我們也對我們中的 8 個人進行了基準測試，我們希望使這些比率符合我們未來經營業務的意義。我認為市場會理解我們面前的情況。但更重要的是，當我們建立新的Flagstar 時，我們對團隊和能量感到興奮，因為他們渴望聽到並成為出色團隊的一部分，我們在風險方面做出了重大改變，在帶來風險方面做出了重大改變作為一個更大的機構的人。這就是我們在這裡關注的旅程。

So it is fluid given the situation in respect to the timing because it became a little bit unexpected in March of this year as we opted to be able to come in and buy Signature Bank through receivership. And now we have to make sure that we're in place to be honorable of the fact that we are a Category IV bank, and that's our regulatory obligations.

因此，考慮到時間方面的情況，它是不穩定的，因為今年 3 月的情況有點出乎意料，因為我們選擇透過接管來收購 Signature Bank。現在我們必須確保我們能夠尊重我們是第四類銀行的事實，這就是我們的監管義務。

Your next question comes from the line of Bernard Von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bernard Von Gizycki。

So with the sales of the CRE multi-family loans from Signature, how will that they seem now completed, how does that impact the expenses from the loss sharing and then the fees, some of that loan administration income that you had and how we think about that for '24?

那麼，隨著 Signature 出售 CRE 多戶家庭貸款，現在它們看起來如何完成，這對損失分攤費用和費用、您擁有的一些貸款管理收入有何影響以及我們的想法關於'24？

Yes. So if you look at those transactions that hit the marketplace, we eagerly expect that those loans will transfer off our servicing platform this quarter entirely. So we will see some loan servicing income a little less than we saw in the fourth quarter. We'll see some of that come in, in the first quarter. That's within the guide that we gave.

是的。因此，如果你看看那些進入市場的交易，我們熱切地希望這些貸款將在本季完全從我們的服務平台轉移出去。因此，我們將看到一些貸款服務收入略低於第四季的水平。我們將在第一季看到其中的一些內容。這在我們提供的指南之內。

And then from a cost save perspective, that -- some of that information once we get through the Flagstar integration, some of those cost saves are in that -- the noninterest expense walk that we put together in the slide deck. So that's included in that number. So from a quarter-over-quarter perspective, we'll see a decline in fourth quarter to first quarter in income from the subservicing.

然後從成本節省的角度來看，一旦我們完成了 Flagstar 集成，其中一些資訊就包含在我們放在幻燈片中的非利息費用步行中。所以這也包含在這個數字中。因此，從季度環比的角度來看，我們將看到第四季度到第一季的服務收入有所下降。

And then by the second quarter, we expect that those loans will have transferred out so that we will have some cost saves that come out of that, and then the income will disappear there.

然後到第二季度，我們預計這些貸款將被轉出，這樣我們就會節省一些成本，然後收入就會消失。

And then just as a follow-up. I know there haven't been many transactions and it sounds like you're more focused on appraisals. But did these sales potentially impact your decisions to add reserves for multi-family and office? This is the Signature sales?

然後作為後續行動。我知道交易量並不多，而且聽起來您更關注評估。但這些銷售是否可能會影響您為多戶住宅和辦公室增加儲備的決定？這是簽名銷售嗎？

Yes. No, a lot of the information we're getting, a lot of it specifically comes from the appraisal we're seeing in our portfolio. We are looking at market and any market indications that we can get our hands around and using that as well. So we're taking into account as much information as we can to develop the right qualitative framework for the -- for especially the office portfolio.

是的。不，我們獲得的許多信息，其中很多具體來自我們在投資組合中看到的評估。我們正在關注市場以及任何我們可以掌握並利用的市場跡象。因此，我們正在考慮盡可能多的信息，以建立正確的定性框架——尤其是辦公室投資組合。

So those sales had no impact on the qualitative factor that you're mentioning?

那麼這些銷售對您提到的定性因素沒有影響嗎？

Yes. No. From a -- we're looking at information in the marketplace, but specific sales from a portfolio perspective, would not be as important for us to look at as the individual appraised information and individual factors we're getting on our book.

是的。不。從一個角度來說，我們正在研究市場上的信息，但從投資組合的角度來看，具體銷售對我們來說並不像我們在書中得到的個人評估信息和個人因素那麼重要。

Our final question will come from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的最後一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的喬恩·阿夫斯特羅姆 (Jon Arfstrom)。

Just 2 questions, 2 important questions, I think. There's some confusion on this, but did the dividend reduction have anything to do with your outlook for credit? Or was it more about looking peer-like and adjusting for the new earnings run rate?

我認為只有兩個問題，兩個重要的問題。對此有些困惑，但股利減少與您的信貸前景有什麼關係嗎？或者更多的是為了看起來與同行相似並根據新的盈利運行率進行調整？

Great question. Let me be crystal clear on this. This is razor focused on looking at the company's long-term plan and being part of the new Category IV banking institutions and having a capital position as we grow it into a level that we're in our peer group. And clearly, the dividend significantly increases that capital efficient in 2024 and beyond.

很好的問題。讓我把這一點說得一清二楚。這是一個剃刀，重點關注公司的長期計劃，成為新的第四類銀行機構的一部分，並在我們將其發展到我們在同行中的水平時擁有資本地位。顯然，股利將顯著提高 2024 年及以後的資本效率。

When you take all of the factors that we talked about between forward guidance and the dividend adjustment, we get our CET1 to double digits. That is primarily focused on the rationale there as well as thinking about the future growth of this company as a Category IV bank. And there's no question that this was a difficult decision as a firm, but clearly necessary as we reestablish our capital allocation story.

當你考慮到我們在前瞻性指導和股息調整之間討論的所有因素時，我們的 CET1 達到兩位數。這主要集中在其基本原理以及對該公司作為第四類銀行的未來發展的思考。毫無疑問，作為一家公司，這是一個艱難的決定，但在我們重建資本配置故事時顯然是必要的。

So really not -- it's more about the latter. It's not about your outlook for credit is what you're saying?

所以其實不是——更多的是後者。你所說的不是關於你的信用前景的？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Tangible book value a little over $10, maybe a simpleton question, but do you expect tangible book value to grow in 2024?

好的。有形帳面價值略高於 10 美元，這可能是一個簡單的問題，但您預計 2024 年有形帳面價值會成長嗎？

Yes. Yes, we do.

是的。是的，我們願意。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Thomas Cangemi for any closing remarks.

至此，我會將電話轉回 Thomas Cangemi，讓其發表結束語。

Thank you again for taking the time to join us this morning and for your interest in NYCB. We look forward to speaking with you in April regarding the first quarter 2024 results.

再次感謝您今天早上抽出時間加入我們以及您對 NYCB 的興趣。我們期待在 4 月與您討論 2024 年第一季的業績。

Thank you all for joining today's meeting. You may now disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。您現在可以斷開連線。