Flagstar Financial Inc (NYCB) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the New York Community Bancorp, Inc. First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    您好,感謝您的支持。我叫雷吉娜,今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在,我歡迎大家參加 New York Community Bancorp, Inc. 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Sal DiMartino, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將會議交給投資者關係總監薩爾·迪馬蒂諾 (Sal DiMartino)。請繼續。

  • Salvatore J. DiMartino - Executive VP, Chief of Staff to the CEO & Director of IR

    Salvatore J. DiMartino - Executive VP, Chief of Staff to the CEO & Director of IR

  • Thank you, Regina, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the management team of New York Community Bancorp on short notice for today's conference call. Today's discussion of the company's first quarter 2024 results will be led by President and CEO, Joseph Otting, joined by the company's Chief Financial Officer, Craig Gifford.

    謝謝你,雷吉娜,大家早安。感謝您在短時間內加入紐約社區銀行管理團隊參加今天的電話會議。今天對公司 2024 年第一季業績的討論將由總裁兼執行長 Joseph Otting 主持,公司財務長 Craig Gifford 也將參加。

  • Before the discussion begins I would like to remind everyone that our quarterly earnings press release and investor presentation can be found on the Investor Relations section of our company website at ir.mynycb.com. Additionally, certain comments made today by the management team may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

    在討論開始之前,我想提醒大家,我們的季度收益新聞稿和投資者簡報可以在我們公司網站 ir.mynycb.com 的投資者關係部分找到。此外,管理團隊今天發表的某些評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

  • Such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules. Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in today's press release and presentation for more information about risks and uncertainties, which may affect us. Also, when discussing our results, we will reference certain non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to today's earnings release for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures.

    我們可能做出的此類前瞻性聲明須遵守安全港規則。請查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言,以了解有關可能影響我們的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。此外,在討論我們的結果時,我們將參考某些非公認會計準則衡量標準,這些衡量標準從報告的結果中排除了某些項目。請參閱今天的收益報告,以了解這些非公認會計準則指標的調節表。

  • And now I would like to turn the call over to Ms. Otting. Joseph?

    現在我想把電話轉給奧廷女士。約瑟夫?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Sal, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us today. Before I go into my prepared remarks, I'd like to also offer my apologies for the late notification for today's earnings call. Clearly, this is not the standard we intend to operate by in the future. And we will notify you in a timely manner in the future quarters. However, we made some big promises for this meeting when we met on March 7, which was a very tall order. And being a new management team, not only did we have to obtain and analyze information, we had to ensure we had both controls and processes and completed the credit review that we had indicated that we would conduct.

    謝謝薩爾,大家早安,謝謝您今天加入我們。在開始我準備好的發言之前,我還想對今天的財報電話會議的遲到通知表示歉意。顯然,這不是我們未來打算遵循的標準。我們將在未來幾季及時通知您。然而,我們在 3 月 7 日開會時對這次會議做出了一些重大承諾,這是一個非常艱鉅的任務。作為一個新的管理團隊,我們不僅必須獲取和分析信息,還必須確保我們擁有控制和流程,並完成我們表示將進行的信用審查。

  • As I indicated, we first got together on March 7, I had really three overarching items that I wanted to focus on in my first 12 weeks. The first was to reevaluate and get our forecast accurate and formulate strategies around the businesses. We wanted to conduct a review and understand our credit risk in the portfolio. And it was very important for us to engage with our regulators and develop relationships because they are very important to our overall organization and building our risk framework.

    正如我所指出的,我們在 3 月 7 日首次相聚,在前 12 週內,我確實想要專注於三個首要項目。首先是重新評估並準確預測我們的預測,並圍繞業務制定策略。我們想要進行審查並了解投資組合中的信用風險。對我們來說,與監管機構接觸並發展關係非常重要,因為它們對我們的整體組織和建立風險框架非常重要。

  • We think that these were in critical components. We think we've done a tremendous amount of work on that. And we think you'll find through the slide presentation today, we came a long, really a long way in the last 4 weeks since the new team has come together. So now turning to the first quarter. During the quarter, the company took a number of actions designed to lay down the groundwork for a return to long-term sustainable profitability or in line with our regional bank peers.

    我們認為這些是關鍵部件。我們認為我們已經在這方面做了大量的工作。我們認為,透過今天的幻燈片演示,您會發現,自從新團隊組建以來,我們在過去 4 週內取得了長足的進步。現在轉向第一季。本季度,該公司採取了一系列行動,旨在為恢復長期可持續盈利能力或與我們的區域銀行同行保持一致奠定基礎。

  • First and foremost, we successfully completed a little over $1 billion equity raise anchored by Liberty Strategic Capital, a firm led by former Secretary, Treasury Secretary, Stephen Mnuchin, along with Hudson Bay Capital Management, Reverence Capital Partners and Citadel Global Equities. The completion of this equity raise significantly strengthens our capital and liquidity position, it really demonstrates the confidence that the new investors have in the turnaround currently underway at the company.

    首先也是最重要的是,我們成功完成了由Liberty Strategy Capital 牽頭的略高於10 億美元的股權融資,該公司由前國務卿、財政部長Stephen Mnuchin 領導,此外還包括Hudson Bay Capital Management、Reverence Capital Partners和Citadel Global Equities。本次股權融資的完成極大地增強了我們的資本和流動性狀況,這確實表明了新投資者對公司目前正在進行的扭虧為盈的信心。

  • Second, we bolstered our Board of Directors and executive management team. In conjunction with the capital raise, we reduced the size of our board to 9 members and added 5 new directors. All who bring extensive banking and turnaround experience to the bank. In addition, I have known for a long time and do them as independent thinkers and will challenge management appropriately as very strong board members. More recently, we announced the appointment of four senior leaders to our executive management team, each will have deep industry knowledge and extensive backgrounds in their respective fields.

    其次,我們加強了董事會和執行管理團隊。在籌集資金的同時,我們將董事會規模減少至 9 名成員,並增加了 5 名新董事。所有為銀行帶來豐富銀行業務和周轉經驗的人。此外,我長期以來一直以獨立思考者的身份對待他們,並將作為非常強大的董事會成員適當地挑戰管理層。最近,我們宣布任命四位高階領導加入我們的執行管理團隊,每一位都在各自領域擁有深厚的行業知識和廣泛的背景。

  • I think when you think about the characteristics of the people that have joined us, they all are coming from very strong organizations with backgrounds from organizations like U.S. Bank, Bank of America, and most of us have worked together either at one of those institutions or at OneWest Bank. So we understand the kind of culture and the type of risk organization that we want collectivity to build and we all came from those organizations that were viewed in the industry as very high-performing organizations.

    我認為,當你考慮加入我們的人的特徵時,他們都來自非常強大的組織,具有美國銀行、美國銀行等組織的背景,我們大多數人都曾在這些機構之一工作過,或者在這些機構工作過。因此,我們了解我們希望集體建立的文化類型和風險組織類型,而且我們都來自那些在產業中被視為非常高績效的組織。

  • I'm confident together with the newly reconstructed Board, we'll be able to drive our strategic initiatives forward and solidify our position as the leading regional bank. We've done this before, and we feel we can do it again. Third, we completed an in-depth due diligent process of our multifamily and commercial real estate portfolios, including the office portfolio, performed both by the bank and separately by an independent third party. We increased our credit loss reserves as a result of information from this review and other analysis we performed during the quarter.

    我相信,與新改組的董事會一起,我們將能夠推動我們的策略舉措向前發展,並鞏固我們作為領先區域銀行的地位。我們以前做過這樣的事,而且我們覺得我們可以再做一次。第三,我們完成了多戶住宅和商業房地產投資組合(包括辦公大樓投資組合)的深入盡職調查,由銀行和獨立第三方分別進行。根據本次審查和我們在本季度進行的其他分析的信息,我們增加了信用損失準備金。

  • Now I'll take you through the earnings presentation beginning with Slide 2. And on Slide 2, it highlights our strategy. And as I said, we bolstered the management and the Board, we've developed what we think we can share with you today a realistic operating plan to get the organization by the end of 2026 at or above industry standards for performance. We have achievable capital and earnings forecast. We have implemented now a rigorous credit risk management process, and we've strengthened the talent on the credit risk process and we maintain sufficient liquidity, as we'll walk you through earlier today.

    現在我將帶您從投影片 2 開始進行收益簡報。正如我所說,我們支持了管理層和董事會,我們已經制定了我們認為今天可以與大家分享的現實營運計劃,以使組織在 2026 年底之前達到或高於行業績效標準。我們有可實現的資本和獲利預測。我們現在已經實施了嚴格的信用風險管理流程,我們加強了信用風險流程的人才,並保持了充足的流動性,正如我們今天早些時候將向您介紹的那樣。

  • Our future targets are that we will be a strong, diversified regional bank producing a return on average assets of 1%, a return on average total TCE of 11% or 12%, and a CET1 ratio of 11% or 12%, we'll walk you through those later today. The goal is to create long-term meaningful shareholder value. 2024 will obviously be a transition year to a more normalized 2025 and 2026.

    我們未來的目標是成為一家實力雄厚、多元化的區域性銀行,平均資產回報率為1%,平均總TCE回報率為11%或12%,CET1比率為11%或12%。將引導您完成這些內容。目標是創造長期有意義的股東價值。 2024 年顯然將是向更正常化的 2025 年和 2026 年過渡的一年。

  • On Page 3 gives you a highlight, and on that page, 7 of the 10 people are new to the company within the last 5 months and that adjuncts three important people that were legacy NYCB and Flagstar people who have joined the organization. And Slide 4 gives a quick overview of the Board members and the depth and knowledge that they bring to the organization.

    第3 頁給您一個亮點,在該頁上,10 名員工中有7 名是過去5 個月內新加入公司的,並且還補充了三名重要人員,他們是加入該組織的舊NYCB 和Flagstar人員。投影片 4 快速概述了董事會成員以及他們為組織帶來的深度和知識。

  • On Slide 5, Slide 5 is a key slide outlining our path to profitability. As you can see, we feel that we have multiple levers to get us there and I'll spend a few minutes kind of walking our way through that. So on number one, obviously, as the industry is confronted with the rapid rise in interest rates, a lot of the loans that were fixed rates that had either 3, 5 or 7 interest rate resets, a number of those are starting to come forward now and will go through a repricing process. And so that will benefit, obviously, net interest income and NIM.

    在投影片 5 上,投影片 5 是概述我們獲利之路的關鍵幻燈片。正如您所看到的,我們認為我們有多種手段可以實現這一目標,我將花幾分鐘的時間來逐步解決這個問題。第一,顯然,隨著該行業面臨利率的快速上升,許多固定利率的貸款已經進行了 3、5 或 7 次利率重置,其中一些開始出現現在並將經歷重新定價過程。顯然,這將有利於淨利息收入和淨利差。

  • Number two, focus on workout of problem loans. We recently brought new resources into the company to bolster the talent and dealing with the workout side of our organization. And this obviously will have long-term reductions in our NPAs.

    二是著力解決問題貸款。我們最近為公司引入了新資源,以增強人才並處理我們組織的鍛鍊方面。這顯然會長期減少我們的不良貸款。

  • Number three, we will begin to build a more robust middle market relationship banking franchise. Today, we roughly have $20 billion in C&I loan outstandings in the portfolio that will create a really good basis for us to move forward and we see that business over $30 billion in the next 3 to 5 years.

    第三,我們將開始建立更強大的中間市場關係銀行業務。如今,我們的投資組合中大約有 200 億美元的工商業貸款未償餘額,這將為我們的前進奠定良好的基礎,我們預計該業務在未來 3 到 5 年內將超過 300 億美元。

  • Just as a comment, really, I spent the vast majority of my career in this space. We successfully grew this business at U.S. Bank under my leadership. We created that business at OneWest Bank in a very short order, put billions of dollars of new loan outstanding, attracted the right kind of talent. And I think that we will be able to do that here. And that will be one of the more successful areas of our story when we look to have a balanced balance sheet.

    作為評論,實際上,我職業生涯的大部分時間都在這個領域度過。在我的領導下,我們在美國銀行成功發展了這項業務。我們在很短的時間內就在 OneWest 銀行創建了這項業務,發放了數十億美元的新貸款,吸引了合適的人才。我認為我們能夠在這裡做到這一點。當我們希望擁有平衡的資產負債表時,這將是我們故事中更成功的領域之一。

  • On number five, we'll look to fully integrate all three banks. Currently today, in 2024, we integrated the Flagstar NYCB onto a single platform called Fiserv, and we have the signature legacy is on FIS. And so we will look to get to one platform in the future. And obviously, it's a very costly proposition when you're operating on two different platforms and consolidating that from an informational perspective.

    第五,我們將尋求完全整合所有三家銀行。目前,在 2024 年,我們將 Flagstar NYCB 整合到一個名為 Fiserv 的單一平台上,並且我們在 FIS 上擁有簽名遺產。因此,我們未來將尋求建立一個平台。顯然,當您在兩個不同的平台上運行並從資訊角度整合時,這是一個非常昂貴的提議。

  • And number six, the efficiency ratio tells the story. We are an organization with an 80% efficiency ratio. Most of this came from U.S. Bank, where Jerry Grundhofer taught us out to squeeze nickels.

    第六,效率比說明了問題。我們是一個效率高達 80% 的組織。其中大部分來自美國銀行,傑瑞·格倫德霍夫 (Jerry Grundhofer) 在那裡教我們如何榨取五分錢。

  • And so it's in our culture, in our DNA. And we will aggressively look at our cost structure and make determinations of how we will be able to bring that back in with industry standards. As far as medium-term items, we will -- as I indicated, look to diversify our loan portfolio. Our commercial real estate portfolio today is around $47 billion. Our strategic target also bring that down around the $30 billion range.

    所以它存在於我們的文化、我們的 DNA 中。我們將積極審視我們的成本結構,並確定如何將其重新納入行業標準。就中期專案而言,正如我所指出的,我們將尋求使我們的貸款組合多樣化。如今,我們的商業房地產投資組合約為 470 億美元。我們的戰略目標也將其降低到 300 億美元左右。

  • We'll improve funding by growing core deposits, and we think that will be helpful by building more relationship-type strategies. And then number three, we'll increase our fee income by cross-selling into the businesses. Today, we have capabilities on cash management, derivatives, commercial cards and syndication capabilities. And we can drive those further and deeper into our relationships.

    我們將透過增加核心存款來改善融資,我們認為建立更多關係型策略將有所幫助。第三,我們將透過向企業進行交叉銷售來增加費用收入。如今,我們擁有現金管理、衍生性商品、商業卡和聯合組織能力。我們可以讓這些人進一步深入我們的關係。

  • One comment I would like to make back on to the top in the short term, I jumped over #4, where it's a sale or runoff of nonstrategic assets. We continue to look at the portfolio of assets on the balance sheet and have started a process within the organization where we're reviewing that. And we do have -- and we have identified an opportunity that could close quickly for $5 billion at par minus a transaction fee that we believe could close within a 60- to 70-day period that we may be announcing here in the next week or so.

    我想在短期內回到頂部的一個評論是,我跳過了第四點,即非戰略資產的出售或徑流。我們將繼續審查資產負債表上的資產組合,並已在組織內啟動了一個流程,我們正在對此進行審查。我們確實有——而且我們已經確定了一個機會,可以按面值 50 億美元減去交易費快速完成,我們相信可以在 60 到 70 天內完成,我們可能會在下週或在這裡宣布。

  • So we've already begun that process of looking at which assets fit strategically going forward. And by doing that, we'll obviously create additional capital for the balance sheet and will obviously create $5 billion of liquidity. And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Craig Gifford, our newly appointed CFO, who I really enjoyed the opportunity to partner with on this project. He's a man of tremendous strengths and talents.

    因此,我們已經開始研究哪些資產適合未來的策略。透過這樣做,我們顯然將為資產負債表創造額外的資本,並創造 50 億美元的流動性。接下來,我將把它交給我們新任命的財務長克雷格·吉福德 (Craig Gifford),我非常高興有機會在這個專案上與他合作。他是一個擁有巨大力量和才華的人。

  • And so Craig, I'll turn it over to you.

    克雷格,我會把它交給你。

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Joseph, and thanks to all those who were able to join the call today. I look forward to meeting many of you in the near future. Over the next few slides, I'll take you through how we think about our forecast, our loan portfolio and our credit risk and our deposit base and liquidity.

    謝謝你,約瑟夫,也感謝所有今天能夠參加電話會議的人。我期待在不久的將來見到你們中的許多人。在接下來的幾張投影片中,我將向您介紹我們如何看待我們的預測、貸款組合、信用風險以及存款基礎和流動性。

  • If you turn to Slide 6, you can see a summary of the next 3 years' expectations of our financial performance. At the very beginning, you can see that we expect our diluted EPS, and this is on a fully converted basis for our outstanding preferreds. Growing from our current level through to about $0.65 to $0.75 at the end of 2026. As Joseph mentioned, you can see that we have expectations to reduce our efficiency ratio down to -- from the current level down to peer levels. And we would see that happening through integration of our previous mergers and a close look at our overlapping cost structures.

    如果您翻到投影片 6,您可以看到我們未來 3 年財務表現預期的摘要。一開始,您可以看到我們預期稀釋後的每股盈餘,這是我們未償優先股完全轉換的基礎上的。到 2026 年底,將從目前的水平增長到約 0.65 至 0.75 美元。透過整合我們先前的合併並仔細研究我們重疊的成本結構,我們會看到這種情況的發生。

  • Our capital ratios were certainly bolstered by the recent capital infusion that Joseph mentioned, and we see that moving to peer levels over the next 2 years through our earnings power and retention of the earnings into capital. Our return on assets, we see improving through a rebalancing of our asset mix as well as loan repricing into current market rates. Our return on equity -- our return on tangible equity will benefit as a result of these items and will drive this back to an 11% to 12% return on tangible capital over the outlook period.

    約瑟夫提到的最近的資本注入無疑增強了我們的資本比率,並且我們看到,透過我們的盈利能力和將盈利保留到資本中,我們將在未來兩年內達到同行水平。我們的資產回報率透過資產組合的重新平衡以及貸款重新定價以適應當前市場利率而得到改善。我們的股本回報率-我們的有形股本回報率將因這些項目而受益,並將在展望期內將有形資本回報率推回到 11% 至 12%。

  • And finally, we believe that, that will result in a tangible book value in the $7 range as we get to the end of 2026. These all reflect the strategies that Joseph outlined on the previous page. If you turn to Page 7, this is really where the rubber meets the road. How is this going to happen? Starting at the top of our income statement, our net interest income will benefit as we see loans reprice over the next couple of years. Our expectations with respect to rates that we built into these numbers follow the median rate forecast. We have about $4 billion a year over the next 3 years that we'll reprice and that's reflected in these numbers. We're actually relatively interest rate risk insensitive right now. We recently exited some pay-fixed swaps that moved us into a relatively flat neutral position.

    最後,我們相信,到 2026 年底,這將導致有形帳面價值在 7 美元範圍內。如果你翻到第 7 頁,你會發現這裡確實是橡膠與道路相遇的地方。這將如何發生?從我們損益表的頂部開始,隨著我們看到未來幾年貸款重新定價,我們的淨利息收入將受益。我們對這些數字中的利率的預期遵循中位數利率預測。未來 3 年,我們每年將重新定價約 40 億美元,這也反映在這些數字中。事實上,我們目前對利率風險相對不敏感。我們最近退出了一些固定報酬掉期,這使我們處於相對平穩的中立位置。

  • Our net interest margin certainly decreased this quarter. That was a result really of two things: our need to move into a bit more, a different shift in our funding mix and more wholesale funding as well as an increase in our borrowing costs. We expect to see that improve over the next 2 years, again, principally a result of repricing of our loan portfolio. From a provision expense, as Joseph mentioned, after taking a deep dive look at our credit portfolio and looking at current market conditions, we did increase our loan loss reserves in the quarter.

    本季我們的淨利差確實有所下降。這實際上是兩件事的結果:我們需要採取更多行動,對我們的融資組合進行不同的轉變,更多的批發融資以及我們的借貸成本的增加。我們預計未來兩年情況會再次改善,這主要是我們貸款組合重新定價的結果。正如約瑟夫所提到的,從撥備費用來看,在深入研究我們的信貸投資組合併考慮當前的市場狀況後,我們確實在本季度增加了貸款損失準備金。

  • We do expect to see an elevated level of provisioning through the rest of the year as market conditions potentially impact more borrowers. But after that, we expect to see a return to a more normalized through-the-cycle level of losses, and we have shown you our expectations here. Our noninterest income expectations are relatively flat in these targets, but we actually see upside as we balance our customer mix towards broader relationships, as Joseph mentioned. Noninterest expense, we do expect that we'll be able to drive efficiencies through our platform as we focus on -- as we focus on our merger activity, we have systems, processes and infrastructure duplication that we do believe that present us opportunities to reduce our costs.

    由於市場狀況可能會影響更多藉款人,我們確實預期今年剩餘時間撥備水準將會上升。但在那之後,我們預計會看到整個週期損失恢復到更正常化的水平,我們已經在這裡向您展示了我們的預期。我們的非利息收入預期在這些目標中相對持平,但正如約瑟夫所提到的那樣,當我們平衡我們的客戶組合以建立更廣泛的關係時,我們實際上看到了上升的空間。非利息費用,我們確實希望能夠透過我們的平台提高效率,因為我們專注於合併活動,我們擁有系統、流程和基礎設施重複,我們相信這為我們提供了減少我們的成本的機會。

  • Over the forecast period, we've assumed between 10% and 15% reduction in our cost structure.

    在預測期內,我們假設成本結構減少 10% 到 15%。

  • If you move to Slide 8, you can see where we currently stand. Our equity position -- our equity infusion in March has us at a 10.1% CET1 ratio on a fully converted basis. You can see that the reserve increase that we did in the first quarter brings us to a 1.58% allowance to loan loss as a percent of total loans, excluding our warehouse loans. And importantly, and I'll cover this in a few minutes in more depth, 84% of our deposits are insured deposits.

    如果您轉到投影片 8,您可以看到我們目前的情況。我們的股權狀況—3 月的股權注入使我們的 CET1 比率在完全轉換的基礎上達到 10.1%。您可以看到,我們在第一季增加的準備金使我們的貸款損失準備金佔總貸款的百分比為 1.58%(不包括我們的倉庫貸款)。重要的是,我將在幾分鐘內更深入地討論這一點,我們 84% 的存款都是保險存款。

  • We have a very low level of uninsured deposits compared to our peers at the moment.

    目前與同業相比,我們的未保險存款水準非常低。

  • If you move to Slide 9, I'll talk a little bit about our loan portfolio and the level of credit review that we did on a number of our higher risk positions in the first quarter. This slide presents our loan portfolio in total at the left. And then covers on the right-hand side, the number of loans and the percentage of the portfolio that we did, what we refer to as a deep dive. That deep dive involved a lot of internal analysis as well as getting third-party information about property valuations. And we've taken that information and considered the credit exposure in the portfolio.

    如果您轉到投影片 9,我將談談我們的貸款組合以及我們在第一季對一些較高風險部位所做的信用審查程度。這張投影片左側展示了我們的貸款組合總額。然後在右側涵蓋貸款數量和我們所做的投資組合的百分比,我們稱之為深入研究。這種深入研究涉及大量內部分析以及獲取有關房地產估值的第三方資訊。我們已經獲取了這些資訊並考慮了投資組合中的信用風險。

  • And I would say it confirms the potential for credit loss that was previously disclosed in our materials. You can see on the bottom right-hand side, the dollars and the percent of the portfolio that we covered, and I'll cover the office and multi-family portfolios in detail on the next 2 pages. But at a high level, we had a deep dive on roughly 75% of our office portfolio, and roughly 30% of our multi-family portfolio.

    我想說,這證實了我們之前在材料中披露的信用損失的可能性。您可以在右下角看到我們涵蓋的投資組合的美元和百分比,我將在接下來的兩頁中詳細介紹辦公室和多戶投資組合。但在較高層面上,我們深入研究了約 75% 的辦公大樓投資組合和約 30% 的多戶住宅投資組合。

  • If you move to Slide 10, you can see what I'm saying in the top right-hand corner. We did a deep dive review of $2.5 billion of a $3 billion office portfolio, certainly, office portfolio, the office portfolio is in a market segment that is suffering a high degree of stress. Our overall -- it doesn't represent a particularly large percentage of our overall loan portfolio at only $3 billion. And you can see that we, on the bottom right-hand side, stand at a 10.3% allowance to total office loans, excluding owner-occupied loans.

    如果您轉到投影片 10,您可以在右上角看到我所說的內容。我們對 30 億美元的辦公室投資組合中的 25 億美元進行了深入審查,當然,辦公室投資組合,辦公室投資組合處於承受高度壓力的細分市場。我們的整體貸款組合僅佔 30 億美元,它所佔的比例並不是特別大。您可以看到,在右下角,我們為辦公室貸款總額(不包括自住貸款)提供 10.3% 的補貼。

  • On the bottom left, you can see that in our deep dive review, we covered our top 50 loans, and those had an average principal balance of about $50 million. The remainder of the portfolio is fairly homogenous or an average loan balance, you can see of about $5 million. And we believe those have a differentiated credit risk, largely because they have more refinancing options just given their loan size.

    在左下角,您可以看到,在我們的深入審查中,我們涵蓋了前 50 筆貸款,這些貸款的平均本金餘額約為 5000 萬美元。投資組合的其餘部分相當同質,或平均貸款餘額約為 500 萬美元。我們認為這些人具有差異化的信用風險,很大程度上是因為考慮到他們的貸款規模,他們有更多的再融資選擇。

  • If you move to Slide 11, you can see more information about our multi-family portfolio. It's certainly our largest segment of the loan portfolio at $36.9 billion, you can see that we covered 36% of that portfolio in our deep dive credit review. And on the left-hand side, you can see that at the end of the quarter, we have a 1.3% allowance to total loan coverage ratio in the multi-family portfolio. Again, on the bottom right, you can see that the loan sizes that we covered in our deep dives were those loans that were largely above $50 million and the loan sizes that we think of as more of a homogenous basis portfolio are around $5 million.

    如果您轉到投影片 11,您可以看到有關我們多戶型投資組合的更多資訊。這無疑是我們貸款組合中最大的部分,達 369 億美元,您可以看到我們在深入的信用審查中涵蓋了該投資組合的 36%。在左側,您可以看到,在本季末,我們多戶投資組合中的準備金佔總貸款覆蓋率的比例為 1.3%。同樣,在右下角,您可以看到我們在深入研究中涵蓋的貸款規模基本上都在 5000 萬美元以上,而我們認為更多的是同質基礎投資組合的貸款規模約為 500 萬美元。

  • In the bullets, you'll note that we expect about $2.6 billion of our multi-family book to reprice in 2024. I mentioned an expectation of about $4 billion in total. We've had very good success with repricing of our existing portfolio over the last 15 months. We had $2.1 billion of loans that have repriced. About 1/4 of those have actually paid off at the repricing date and the other 3/4 have repriced up to current market rates, and we've seen almost no delinquencies to date. In other words, the borrowers have been able to cover that service in spite of the elevated level of interest rates.

    在項目符號中,您會注意到,我們預計 2024 年我們的多戶住宅書籍將重新定價約 26 億美元。過去 15 個月,我們對現有投資組合的重新定價取得了巨大成功。我們有 21 億美元的貸款已重新定價。其中約 1/4 在重新定價日實際還清,另外 3/4 已重新定價至當前市場利率,迄今為止我們幾乎沒有看到拖欠情況。換句話說,儘管利率水準較高,借款人仍能支付該服務。

  • If you move to Slide 12, we have some information on our non-office portfolio. Roughly $7.4 billion. Importantly, you can see on the bottom right that we have a very diverse book. There's no real credit concentrations. We did review about 1/4 of this book, and we don't really see any stresses in the rest of the portfolio.

    如果您轉到投影片 12,我們提供一些有關我們的非辦公室投資組合的資訊。大約74億美元。重要的是,您可以在右下角看到我們有一本非常多樣化的書。不存在真正的信貸集中度。我們確實審查了這本書的大約 1/4,並且我們在其餘的作品集中並沒有真正看到任何壓力。

  • On Page 13 is a breakout of our allowance for loan losses and I'll just point out that on the multifamily portfolio, again, we're at 1.3% allowance coverage ratio. That's up 45 basis points from 82 basis points at the first quarter -- excuse me, at the year-end. And again, you can see the office allowance ratio is 10.3%. The office ratio, in particular, puts us at the high end of the range compared to our regional bank peers.

    第 13 頁是我們的貸款損失準備金明細表,我只想指出,在多戶投資組合中,我們的準備金覆蓋率再次為 1.3%。這比第一季的 82 個基點上升了 45 個基點——對不起,是年底。再次,您可以看到辦公室津貼率為 10.3%。尤其是辦公大樓比率,與區域銀行同業相比,使我們處於高端水平。

  • Moving to liquidity. Deposits and liquidity, if you turn to Page 14. You'll see in the top left-hand side that roughly 41% of our deposit base are transactional and lower-cost funding. It's not a CD focused book. That said, we have looked to the CD market for some recent funding needs. Bottom left-hand side, importantly, you can see that our deposit base has been very stable since the capital infusion. And in fact, we've grown deposits. And that's not only through the end of March, but subsequent to the end of March to date in April, we've seen a very stable deposit base and stable growth. I'm sure you know you've seen that in the market, we have a premium product. We call it the 555 product.

    轉向流動性。存款和流動性,如果您翻到第 14 頁。這不是一本以 CD 為中心的書。也就是說,我們已經在 CD 市場上尋找近期的一些資金需求。左下角,重要的是,您可以看到自註資以來我們的存款基礎一直非常穩定。事實上,我們的存款有所增加。不僅是到3月底,而且從3月底至今的4月份,我們都看到了非常穩定的存款基礎和穩定的成長。我相信您知道您已經在市場上看到了我們的優質產品。我們稱之為555產品。

  • Importantly, we're seeing good traction, but it's not so large as to move our margin. It's focused on new money and new customers that we are bringing to the bank and I would say that it's not driving an overall wholesale repricing of our deposit book.

    重要的是,我們看到了良好的牽引力,但還沒有大到足以改變我們的利潤率。它的重點是我們為銀行帶來的新資金和新客戶,我想說這並沒有推動我們存款簿的整體批發重新定價。

  • If you turn to Slide 15. As I mentioned before, the vast majority of our deposits are insured deposits. We only have $12.4 billion of uninsured deposits. And on this slide, you can see that we have more cash on the balance sheet than the entire amount of our uninsured deposits. That's quite unusual compared to regional bank peers. In fact, from a total liquidity perspective, we have over 200% of our uninsured deposits. We continue to focus on building liquidity. And as Joseph mentioned, as we look at potential strategic portfolio transactions, we would expect to see some degree of further build in liquidity coming from those transactions.

    如果你翻到投影片 15。我們只有 124 億美元的未保險存款。在這張投影片上,您可以看到我們資產負債表上的現金比我們未投保的存款總額還要多。與區域銀行同行相比,這是很不尋常的。事實上,從總流動性的角度來看,我們有超過 200% 的存款沒有保險。我們繼續專注於建立流動性。正如約瑟夫所提到的,當我們考慮潛在的策略性投資組合交易時,我們預計這些交易將在一定程度上進一步增強流動性。

  • Slide 16 is just a brief look at our first quarter financial highlights. We had a net loss to shareholders -- to common shareholders of $335 million for the quarter that was largely driven by the provisioning of $315 million for the quarter. Certainly elevated, there was a bit of noise as well in our net loss related to our merger-related activities, which we see declining throughout the year and don't see that carrying over into 2025 and 2026. And then we also had a bit of noise related to some adjustments from the previous bargain gain that we recorded last year as we close out the accounting associated with the Signature transaction.

    幻燈片 16 只是我們第一季財務亮點的簡要回顧。本季我們對股東(普通股股東)的淨虧損為 3.35 億美元,主要是由本季撥備的 3.15 億美元造成的。當然,與合併相關活動相關的淨虧損也有一些噪音,我們認為全年淨虧損都在下降,並且不會延續到 2025 年和 2026 年。會計時記錄的先前討價還價收益的一些調整有關。

  • Excluding those and at a more normal provision level, you can see that our base operations were actually at a slight net income level in the first quarter. And now I'd like to turn the call back to Joseph. Thank you.

    排除這些因素,在更正常的撥備水平下,您可以看到我們第一季的基本業務實際上處於輕微的淨利潤水平。現在我想把電話轉回約瑟夫。謝謝。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Craig. First of all, I appreciate your patience. Since this is really our first opportunity to get together with all of you, we thought it was very important to go through the deck as opposed to just reading opening comments that you could get really the context and details of where the organization is today and then how we see that transforming into the future. So I hope you found that helpful and useful, and we clearly look forward, Craig and I do to meeting a number of you and following up and having discussions in further detail and really what are the areas of the packet that you would like to have.

    謝謝你,克雷格。首先,我感謝您的耐心。因為這確實是我們第一次有機會與大家聚在一起,所以我們認為瀏覽一下演示文稿非常重要,而不是僅僅閱讀開場評論,因為您可以真正了解組織今天和之後的情況和詳細信息我們如何看待未來的轉變。因此,我希望您發現這對您有幫助和有用,我們顯然期待克雷格和我與你們中的一些人會面,並進行後續跟進和更詳細的討論,以及您真正想要的數據包的哪些領域。

  • One of the things that we look at is what is the upside for the company. And we are currently trading at roughly 0.42 of a fully converted tangible book value of $6.33. This compares to about 1.5x for Category 4 banks at about 1.4x for regional banks. I believe this valuation gap will narrow significantly as we execute on our transformation plan. And this plan is we're all experienced of going down this journey and this path. We've done it before. We know what the end looks like. We know what we have to do to execute on it. And we as an executive management team are optimistic that we can deliver on the plan. It's going to be a lot of hard work. We recognize that, but this is a strong team that's come together with a very diversified background that has been in environments that they see what the strong regional banks can kind of look like.

    我們關注的事情之一是公司的優勢是什麼。目前,我們的交易價格約為完全轉換後的有形帳面價值 6.33 美元的 0.42 美元。相比之下,4 類銀行約為 1.5 倍,區域銀行約為 1.4 倍。我相信,隨著我們執行轉型計劃,這一估值差距將顯著縮小。這個計劃是我們都經歷過這段旅程和這條道路的。我們以前已經做過了。我們知道結局是什麼樣子。我們知道我們必須做什麼才能執行它。作為執行管理團隊,我們對實現該計劃持樂觀態度。這將是很多艱苦的工作。我們認識到這一點,但這是一個強大的團隊,擁有非常多元化的背景,他們在環境中看到了強大的區域銀行的樣子。

  • So finally, I'd like to really thank all of our teammates for their hard work and commitment to the bank and our customers. As you can appreciate, I've been here slightly under 8 weeks now. Craig has been here 2.5 weeks, but it was very important for us to be able to kind of meet with you as soon as possible and give you an overview on the organization and we look forward to fielding any questions from the group.

    最後,我要衷心感謝我們所有團隊成員的辛勤工作以及對銀行和客戶的承諾。如你所知,我來到這裡還不到 8 週。克雷格已經來到這裡 2.5 週了,但能夠盡快與您會面並為您提供有關組織的概述對我們來說非常重要,我們期待著回答小組提出的任何問題。

  • And operator, I will turn it back over to you now for you to be able to call on people for questions.

    接線員,我現在會將其轉回給您,以便您可以詢問人們的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

    (操作員指令)我們的第一個問題將來自 Ebrahim Poonawala 與美國銀行的線路。

  • Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

    Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

  • So appreciate everything that you outlined around business strategy and credit. Maybe first question, I guess, both of you wrote this better than most. We are in a tough interest rate backdrop. Just talk to us when you talk about growing the core deposit franchise, which is extremely tough right now for even the best of banks in terms of the nuts and bolts of how you can execute that without undue pressure on deposit costs?

    因此,感謝您圍繞業務策略和信用概述的一切。也許第一個問題,我猜,你們兩個都寫得比大多數人好。我們正處於嚴峻的利率背景下。當您談論發展核心存款業務時,請與我們談談,即使對於最好的銀行來說,目前這也非常困難,因為如何在不對存款成本造成過度壓力的情況下執行該業務的具體細節?

  • And also, if you don't mind addressing there's been a fair amount of challenge about talent leaving NYB over the last few weeks? Like how impactful would that be? And how much of that is baked into your forecast and outlook from here?

    另外,如果您不介意解決過去幾週關於人才離開紐約市的相當大的挑戰嗎?比如說這會有多大影響?其中有多少被納入您的預測和展望中?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you very much. So the first question is when you look at kind of the legacy organization, it was kind of a monoline business where they focused on multifamily, and then they raised high money market and CD rates to fund that. And then the evolution with Flagstar brought more relationship deposits into the fold. And then the third leg of that was the Signature bank joining the organization through the FDIC assisted transaction. So we have been able to, through those processes, get to as when Craig showed on the chart, 41% of our deposits are actually in noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing, which are transaction-related accounts.

    非常感謝。因此,第一個問題是,當你觀察傳統組織的類型時,它是一種單一業務,他們專注於多戶家庭,然後他們提高了高貨幣市場和定期存款利率來為其提供資金。然後,Flagstar 的發展帶來了更多的關係存款。第三步是簽名銀行透過 FDIC 協助交易加入組織。因此,透過這些流程,我們已經能夠了解到,正如克雷格在圖表上顯示的那樣,我們 41% 的存款實際上是無息和有息帳戶,即與交易相關的帳戶。

  • And if you ask most people, Ebrahim, who is your bank? Most people identify no matter if you have a $1 million in your brokerage account, and you have your mortgage with somebody, they usually identify with who's their checking account is. And so we have a strong baseline in our retail franchise to be able to grow off of those relationships. And then as we look to expand into the C&I business, Usually, if you can be important to the customer stack and usually in the middle market and the specialty industry business, there's usually 3 to 5 banks.

    如果你問大多數人,易卜拉欣,你的銀行是誰?大多數人都知道,無論您的經紀帳戶中是否有 100 萬美元,並且您有某人的抵押貸款,他們通常都會識別誰是他們的支票帳戶。因此,我們的零售特許經營擁有強大的基礎,能夠從這些關係中發展壯大。然後,當我們尋求擴展到 C&I 業務時,通常,如果您對客戶群很重要,並且通常在中間市場和專業行業業務中,通常有 3 到 5 家銀行。

  • And if you can be important in that stack, you will usually get the relationship products, and those will be deposits, cash management, derivatives, syndication activities. And so really, our big focus is developing and recruiting talent into that space and building upon what we already have. We already have some very good businesses in that space. And that's where I think as we execute on that strategy, you'll get less interest-sensitive clients and more clients that are interested in supporting the overall relationship.

    如果你能在這個堆疊中發揮重要作用,你通常會獲得關係產品,這些產品將是存款、現金管理、衍生性商品、銀團活動。事實上,我們的重點是在該領域開發和招募人才,並在我們已有的基礎上再接再厲。我們在該領域已經擁有一些非常好的業務。這就是我認為當我們執行該策略時,您將獲得對利益不太敏感的客戶和更多有興趣支持整體關係的客戶。

  • The second part of your question, I think, dealt with the Signature Bank. And what I would say about Signature Bank is, we really want to build the baseline of our C&I commercial business around the Signature Bank teams. We really have a unique franchise that we were able to obtain where we have commercial bankers and private banking people from Signature Bank. They're really in some of the most lucrative markets in the United States. They're in the Southwest, the Northeast, the Southeast and then around the Greater Lakes, I will say it has been a tough integration of them into our bank. Some of it has been our fault and we have to take responsibility that not all of our products have slowed effectively for them.

    我認為你問題的第二部分涉及簽名銀行。關於 Signature Bank,我想說的是,我們確實希望圍繞 Signature Bank 團隊建立我們的 C&I 商業業務的基線。我們確實擁有獨特的特許經營權,我們能夠從 Signature Bank 擁有商業銀行家和私人銀行人員。他們確實處於美國一些最有利可圖的市場。他們分佈在西南部、東北部、東南部以及大湖區周圍,我想說,將他們融入我們的銀行是一個艱難的過程。其中一些是我們的錯,我們必須承擔責任,因為並非我們所有的產品都有效地減緩了他們的速度。

  • But I would also say some of the clients did not -- some of the legacy clients of Signature did not meet our BSA standards, and those clients are no longer with Flagstar. So there also was a little bit of a uniqueness of trying to fit. They had a decentralized risk model. We have a centralized risk model. So I think there was a higher standard around that. But we have lost roughly 200 people in that group. We do track on a daily basis. The departure balance when the teams left was $6.176 billion. And today, the current balance is $6 billion, so roughly slightly less than $200 million of deposits have left.

    但我也想說,有些客戶沒有——Signature 的一些舊客戶不符合我們的 BSA 標準,而這些客戶不再使用 Flagstar。因此,嘗試適應也有一點獨特之處。他們有一個分散的風險模型。我們有一個集中的風險模型。所以我認為這方面有更高的標準。但我們已經失去了該群體中約 200 人。我們每天都會進行追蹤。球隊離開時的離開餘額為61.76億美元。如今,目前餘額為 60 億美元,因此剩餘存款大致略低於 2 億美元。

  • And we do recognize some of those deposits will take time to migrate out of the organization. But I think we've done a couple -- there's been a couple of contrary things why that has stuck is when those teams left, they frequently did not take the whole team. So the team was ten, they took three and left seven people. Those seven people have done an extraordinary job of stepping up and calling on those contracts and retaining those. And that really has been quite positive. And we're -- there were smaller teams where the whole team left, we quickly reassigned those to other teams. And so I think the combination of that has helped us be able to retain a significant amount of those deposits and be in a position to kind of move forward. So there's always that risk for some more deposits, but it isn't like we've had a big wholesale and as Craig pointed out on the slide, we had very -- we've actually had pretty good growth in deposits during the quarter.

    我們確實認識到其中一些存款需要時間才能從組織中遷移出來。但我認為我們已經做了一些——有一些相反的事情,為什麼這種情況一直存在,當這些團隊離開時,他們經常沒有帶走整個團隊。所以團隊十人,他們帶走了三個人,留下了七個人。這七個人在加強、呼籲並保留這些合約方面做得非常出色。這確實是非常積極的。我們 - 有一些較小的團隊,整個團隊都離開了,我們很快就將這些團隊重新分配給其他團隊。因此,我認為這一切的結合幫助我們能夠保留大量的存款,並且能夠向前邁進。因此,增加存款總是存在風險,但這並不是說我們進行了大規模批發,正如克雷格在幻燈片上指出的那樣,我們實際上在本季度的存款增長非常好。

  • And we continue to see that carrying through into April as well. And really, it's strong growth in the retail franchise and growth in the private bank. So where you would perhaps anticipate that, that would be rolling down, it's actually been rolling up.

    我們繼續看到這種情況持續到四月。事實上,這是零售特許經營和私人銀行的強勁增長。因此,您可能預計會下降,但實際上卻在上升。

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • As Joseph mentioned, there's been very little deposit departures since the press associated with the adviser -- with the group of advisers that left couple of hundred billion -- I'm sorry, yes, a couple of hundred million dollars of departures. All of that occurred in the first 2 weeks and over the last couple of weeks, it's just been a trickle. Very positive.

    正如約瑟夫所提到的,自從與顧問相關的媒體報告以來,存款的流失很少——顧問小組留下了幾千億美元——我很抱歉,是的,有幾億美元的流失。所有這些都發生在前兩週內,而在過去幾週內,這只是涓涓細流。非常積極。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Ebrahim, one of the other things is like most of -- those teams have left for small banks. And some of these clients just can't be serviced by those small banks. So they may move part of the relationship. But if they're fully integrated into the bank, it's very complicated to delink the treasury management and all the services and systems that you have. So my guess is we'll have split relationships with some of those small banks and things that can move over but we've been able to retain a significant portion of the deposits and activities.

    易卜拉欣,其他事情之一就像大多數人一樣——這些團隊已經前往小銀行。其中一些客戶根本無法由那些小型銀行提供服務。所以他們可能會改變部分關係。但如果它們完全整合到銀行中,那麼將財務管理與您擁有的所有服務和系統脫鉤就非常複雜。所以我的猜測是,我們將與一些小銀行建立分離的關係,並且可以轉移的東西,但我們已經能夠保留很大一部分存款和活動。

  • And we've been calling, Alessandro and I have spent a lot of time calling on the private banking clients, meeting with the people, trying to understand, as I said, some of this is our fault, the integration process and making sure we understand how we can be more responsive to credit needs, account opening and those things that can make it more transparent for those customers to integrate into the bank.

    我們一直在打電話,亞歷山德羅和我花了很多時間打電話給私人銀行客戶,與人們會面,試圖理解,正如我所說,其中一些是我們的錯,整合過程並確保我們了解我們如何能夠更好地回應信貸需求、開戶以及那些可以使這些客戶更透明地融入銀行的事情。

  • Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

    Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

  • That's great color. And if I can have one quick follow-up. So I appreciate all the deep dive you've done on the office and multi-family. When all this began, there was a lot of concern around New York cities and stabilized multi-family book. And I appreciate there's more to do in terms of the deep dive review. Just give us a sense, like for the longest time, I've covered the bank, it felt like the loss content in that book should be minimal. And I would love to hear your thoughts in terms of how we should think about the rents stabilize New York City multi-family and your view on the loss content?

    那顏色真棒。如果我能快速跟進一下的話。因此,我感謝您對辦公室和多戶住宅所做的所有深入研究。當這一切開始時,紐約各城市引起了極大的關注,多戶家庭的帳簿也穩定下來。我很高興在深入審查方面還有更多工作要做。只是給我們一種感覺,就像在很長一段時間裡,我已經涵蓋了銀行,感覺那本書中的損失內容應該是最小的。我很想聽聽您對我們應該如何穩定紐約市多戶住宅的租金的看法以及您對損失內容的看法?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, a couple of things. I mean we all know about the 2019 legislative changes. And then the expectation perhaps that the Supreme Court would move against that and they haven't. So we're kind of in the army, so to speak, with what we have. We may have hit the low point now that some of the jurisdictions are doing tax abatements. We've looked at the very big multi-families that have large exposures. And we'll do more work on the remainder of the portfolio during this particular quarter. But as we say, the revenue is pretty solid in that space. I mean, there's very few vacancies. They know what the revenue -- where there's been problems really is how on the other side of the operating expenses have risen. People will tell you to buy a new HVAC system, it's 30% or 40% higher than what it was 2 years ago, hiring people to do work on site, interest rate resets, just a lot of negative consequences on the expense side.

    嗯,有幾件事。我的意思是我們都知道 2019 年的立法變化。然後人們期望最高法院可能會反對這一點,但他們沒有。可以這麼說,我們就像是在軍隊裡,擁有我們所擁有的一切。由於一些司法管轄區正在進行減稅,我們可能已經達到了最低點。我們研究了擁有大量風險的大型多戶家庭。我們將在這個特定季度對投資組合的其餘部分進行更多工作。但正如我們所說,該領域的收入相當穩定。我的意思是,職位空缺很少。他們知道收入——真正存在問題的地方是營運費用的另一面是如何增加的。人們會告訴你購買新的 HVAC 系統,它比 2 年前高出 30% 或 40%,僱用人員在現場工作,利率重置,只是在費用方面產生了很多負面後果。

  • On one of the chart pages, Craig yes, Chart 11, I think one of the important parts about our portfolio is if you look at the part that shows the past due stage that the one that shows the past due 30 to 89 days past due.

    在其中一個圖表頁上,克雷格,是的,圖表 11,我認為我們投資組合的重要部分之一是,如果您查看顯示逾期階段的部分,那麼顯示逾期 30 至 89 天的部分。

  • Anyway, while, he is finding that page, Ebrahim, one of the things that our portfolio has exhibited amazing resiliency where clients are not going past due. So where we see that perhaps the property is over 100% loan-to-value. And just for the properties, the debt service coverage is below 1:1. These are frequently long-time owned properties by families, and they are supporting those properties from resources amongst the family because they don't want those properties -- to lose those properties.

    不管怎樣,他正在尋找那個頁面,易卜拉欣,這是我們的投資組合表現出驚人的彈性的事情之一,客戶不會逾期。所以我們看到該房產的貸款價值比可能超過 100%。僅就房產而言,償債覆蓋率低於 1:1。這些通常是家庭長期擁有的財產,他們透過家庭資源來支持這些財產,因為他們不希望這些財產失去這些財產。

  • And while in those instances, we don't have guarantees, potential tax liabilities are motivating people to be at the table with us negotiating to make sure that they can -- they have time to kind of manage their way. And Ebrahim, what I was referencing is on Page 8. The third item up from the bottom is -- or excuse me, second item up from the bottom is, total loans 30 to 89 days past due. At the end of the first quarter, we were 26% versus Category 4 were 64% and then $50 billion to $100 billion was 29%. So our portfolio, while we do feel there's loss given default and probability default, the portfolio has held up very well from the standpoint of the borrowers continue to make payments.

    雖然在這些情況下,我們沒有保證,但潛在的稅務義務正在激勵人們與我們進行談判,以確保他們能夠——他們有時間以自己的方式進行管理。易卜拉欣,我引用的是第 8 頁。第一季末,我們的比例為 26%,而第四類為 64%,然後 500 億至 1,000 億美元為 29%。因此,我們的投資組合,雖然我們確實認為存在違約損失和違約機率,但從借款人繼續付款的角度來看,該投資組合表現得很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

    您的下一個問題來自 Dave Rochester 和 Compass Point 的線路。

  • David Patrick Rochester - MD, Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    David Patrick Rochester - MD, Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Congrats on getting all this together in such a short period of time. It's very impressive. Just following up on your comments on the $6 billion in deposits. I appreciate all the color on that. What's the mix of that $6 billion that's remaining? So what portion of that is DDA versus interest-bearing or higher rate CDs. And then if you could just talk about how many of those teams are remaining at the bank and where you stand with lockups and whatnot with the remaining private bank teams and how you're managing that relationship at this point going forward?

    恭喜你在這麼短的時間內完成了所有這些工作。這是非常令人印象深刻的。只要跟進您對 60 億美元存款的評論。我很欣賞上面的所有顏色。剩下的 60 億美元是做什麼的?那麼,DDA 與計息或更高利率 CD 的比例是多少?然後,您是否可以談談這些團隊中有多少人留在銀行,以及您與剩餘私人銀行團隊的禁售情況以及其他方面的情況,以及您目前如何管理這種關係?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. There's about 100 teams left with the bank today. So if you said there was roughly 130 at the beginning, there's 100 left. And we had in place a cash payment after 1 year, cash payment after 2 years and then an equity RSRs that would vest in the third year kind of on a cliff vesting. And -- but I would also say, Dave, money is one thing. But if you're servicing your clients in that space, and they have a really unique model, which I actually like is they're a single point of contact for their customers and I'm supportive of that model. If you're not able to support your clients, you're going to be frustrated.

    是的。今天銀行還剩下大約 100 個團隊。所以如果你說一開始大約有130個,那就剩下100個。我們在 1 年後支付現金,在 2 年後支付現金,然後在第三年以懸崖兌現方式授予股權 RSR。而且──但我還要說,戴夫,金錢是一回事。但如果你在那個領域為你的客戶提供服務,並且他們有一個非常獨特的模式,我真正喜歡的是他們是客戶的單點聯絡人,我支持這種模式。如果您無法支持您的客戶,您將會感到沮喪。

  • And you're not going to stay at an institution, you don't think that will give you those tools. And so it's really -- we've got to fix that. And if we can fix that, I think people can really have a successful career here, and we can take care of their clients because we have the ability to execute. So lockups are one thing, but if you're not able to take care of your customers and that's your franchise, then I don't think there's any money that would keep you out at the bank. And I don't know do you have the number on...

    而且你不會留在某個機構,你認為這不會給你這些工具。所以我們確實必須解決這個問題。如果我們能解決這個問題,我認為人們真的可以在這裡擁有成功的職業生涯,而且我們可以照顧他們的客戶,因為我們有執行能力。因此,鎖定是一回事,但如果你無法照顧你的客戶,而這就是你的特許經營權,那麼我認為沒有任何錢可以阻止你進入銀行。而且我不知道你有沒有電話號碼...

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • To put some numbers around the deposit mix of that $5.8 billion, only about $250 million of that is CDs. So it's not -- it's stable because of the relationships in the business, not because of maturity term structure.

    從這 58 億美元的存款組合來看,其中只有約 2.5 億美元是 CD。所以它不是——它是穩定的,因為業務關係,而不是因為期限結構。

  • David Patrick Rochester - MD, Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    David Patrick Rochester - MD, Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • What piece of that is DDA? Noninterest bearing?

    DDA 是哪一部分?無息?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • I don't have that number in front of me, but the bulk of it is transactional accounts.

    我面前沒有這個號碼,但其中大部分是交易帳戶。

  • David Patrick Rochester - MD, Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    David Patrick Rochester - MD, Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got you. What do you think in terms of the timing of ironing out all the issues on the service side?

    明白你了。您認為解決服務端所有問題的時機是什麼?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • We've been all over it. It's been one of my personal initiatives. We meet -- we have that and continue to meet with -- they're called private bankers, but I'll be honest with you. Most of them are just really good commercial bankers. And we're kind of working through. We first worked through some of the approval levels that were assigned, and we got them back to kind of what their approval levels were with Signature Bank. And then we've been working through the credit process.

    我們已經經歷過這一切。這是我個人的舉措之一。我們會面——我們已經這樣做了,並將繼續會面——他們被稱為私人銀行家,但我會誠實地告訴你。他們中的大多數人都是非常優秀的商業銀行家。我們正在努力解決這個問題。我們首先完成了一些分配的批准級別,然後我們讓他們回到了簽名銀行的批准級別。然後我們一直在完成信貸流程。

  • We've assigned a particular person to work through how credits get approved. So for the most part, I think we're ironing those kind of things out. We've kind of basically gone down to a trickle of people leaving at this point. So I really think that people that are here are engaged and they want to be part of the organization.

    我們已指派專人負責如何核准學分。所以在很大程度上,我認為我們正在解決這些問題。此時我們基本上已經只剩下一小部分人離開了。所以我真的認為這裡的人們都很投入並且希望成為組織的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Mark Fitzgibbon with Piper Sandler.

    你的下一個問題來自馬克·菲茨吉本(Mark Fitzgibbon)和派珀·桑德勒(Piper Sandler)的台詞。

  • Mark Thomas Fitzgibbon - MD & Head of FSG Research

    Mark Thomas Fitzgibbon - MD & Head of FSG Research

  • I wondered if you could share with us what you're assuming for the balance sheet size in your modeling?

    我想知道您是否可以與我們分享您在建模中對資產負債表規模的假設?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, we can. We are not assuming any significant reduction in the modeling that represents the numbers on Pages 6 and 7 in our balance sheet size. As Joseph mentioned, we are thinking about and looking at a number of strategic transactions, but we don't have a balance sheet reduction as our principal target. We'll make strategic moves that are right for the business and right for our balance sheet and, importantly, increase our shareholder returns.

    我們可以。我們並沒有假設代表資產負債表規模中第 6 頁和第 7 頁數字的模型會出現任何顯著減少。正如約瑟夫所提到的,我們正在考慮和考慮一些策略交易,但我們並沒有將縮減資產負債表作為我們的主要目標。我們將採取適合業務和資產負債表的策略性舉措,更重要的是,提高股東回報。

  • Mark Thomas Fitzgibbon - MD & Head of FSG Research

    Mark Thomas Fitzgibbon - MD & Head of FSG Research

  • Okay. And then secondly, I think your lead independent director had suggested on CNBC recently that the company could be used as a roll-up vehicle for more FDIC deals. When do you think that's conceivable? Is any of that baked into your plan through 2026?

    好的。其次,我認為你們的首席獨立董事最近在 CNBC 上建議,該公司可以用作更多 FDIC 交易的匯總工具。你什麼時候認為這是可以想像的?您是否已將這些納入 2026 年之前的計劃中?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • It's not baked into our plan. What I would -- obviously, with my background of being the comptroller of the currency, I have good visions into what a good credit -- good risk management infrastructure looks like. What is first line of defense in second line and defense and third line of defense should be. And by no means are we in a position in the short term to be in that position to be acquiring other entities. We'll clean up our house and get it in order.

    它沒有納入我們的計劃。顯然,憑藉我作為貨幣主計長的背景,我對良好的信用、良好的風險管理基礎設施有著美好的願景。什麼是第一防線、第二防線和第三防線應該是什麼。我們在短期內絕不可能收購其他實體。我們會打掃我們的房子並把它整理好。

  • And really, our focus is to work with our regulators at the OCC and the Fed. They're important partners to us to guide us and partner with us as we build the infrastructure here. We have a lot of work to do in this organization to put the risk structure in place. And we're committed to doing that. We've taken some actions where we formed a committee at the bank, we're hiring a person that coordinated in the organization. It's their job. We formed a management committee. We're really focused on it and we want to deliver because we think it's important for us. We're not doing it because anybody else wants us to do a KPMG to regulate it. We want to do it because we think it's important.

    事實上,我們的重點是與貨幣監理署和聯準會的監管機構合作。他們是我們重要的合作夥伴,在我們在這裡建造基礎設施時為我們提供指導並與我們合作。我們在這個組織中還有很多工作要做,以建立風險結構。我們致力於這樣做。我們已經採取了一些行動,在銀行成立了一個委員會,我們正在聘請一名在組織中進行協調的人員。這是他們的工作。我們成立了一個管理委員會。我們非常關注它,並且希望交付,因為我們認為這對我們很重要。我們這樣做並不是因為其他人希望我們讓畢馬威會計師事務所來監管它。我們想要這樣做,因為我們認為這很重要。

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • And I would tell you that the financial impact of that infrastructure needs and build is included in the financial forecast. So we would see that some of the opportunities for efficiency that will drive out of the business will be reinvested in developing risk management infrastructure.

    我想告訴您,基礎設施需求和建設的財務影響已包含在財務預測中。因此,我們會看到,一些原本會被淘汰的提高效率的機會將被重新投資於開發風險管理基礎設施。

  • Mark Thomas Fitzgibbon - MD & Head of FSG Research

    Mark Thomas Fitzgibbon - MD & Head of FSG Research

  • Great. And then just lastly, would you consider selling a part of the branch franchise? Are there any sort of far-flung areas where you see an opportunity to kind of shrink down part of the branch franchise?

    偉大的。最後,您會考慮出售部分分店特許經營權嗎?您是否認為在某些偏遠地區有機會縮小部分分支機構的特許經營權?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • I don't think so, not at this point. I think we really like the deposits and how the bank has operated in the retail bank. If anything, we would like to get more products that they could have available. We obviously are really good at originating mortgages and being better at originating mortgages out of the branch could be a strong initiative. Reggie is focused on doing more small business lending out of the branches as well. So I think we're more into how do we enhance what we offer through our branch network. They've done a really strong job. We have a very powerful deposit base out of the branch network, and we think we can grow upon that.

    我不這麼認為,目前還不是。我認為我們真的很喜歡存款以及銀行在零售銀行的運作方式。如果有的話,我們希望獲得更多他們可以提供的產品。顯然,我們非常擅長發放抵押貸款,並且更好地從分行發放抵押貸款可能是一項強有力的舉措。雷吉也致力於透過分行提供更多小型企業貸款。因此,我認為我們更關注如何透過分支機構網路增強我們提供的服務。他們做得非常出色。我們在分行網路之外擁有非常強大的存款基礎,我們認為我們可以在此基礎上發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.

    您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

  • Christopher Edward McGratty - MD & Head of United States Bank Research

    Christopher Edward McGratty - MD & Head of United States Bank Research

  • Can you just share where you are looking to run the loan-to-deposit ratio over the next 2 to 3 years?

    您能否分享一下您希望在未來 2 至 3 年內將貸存比控制在什麼水平?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think that the loan-to-deposit ratio as we -- as our current balance sheet mix looks will continue out at least over the next 24 months as we get beyond that and look at our wholesale funding and our on-balance sheet liquidity position, you might see us move to a lower reliance on wholesale deposits -- I'm sorry, on wholesale funding and perhaps an increase in deposits that would reduce that ratio a bit. But I don't expect to see it transition significantly in the next 24 months.

    是的。我認為,當我們超越這一點並審視我們的批發融資和資產負債表內流動性頭寸時,我們目前的資產負債表組合的貸存比至少將在未來 24 個月內持續下去。看到我們轉向降低對批發存款的依賴——對不起,是對批發融資的依賴,也許存款的增加會稍微降低這個比率。但我預計在接下來的 24 個月內它不會發生重大轉變。

  • Christopher Edward McGratty - MD & Head of United States Bank Research

    Christopher Edward McGratty - MD & Head of United States Bank Research

  • It will remain elevated there?

    那裡會保持高位嗎?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, as we look at strategic transactions, we might see some reduction of loans that would reduce the loan-to-deposit ratio just through strategic transactions that would be intended to drive liquidity as well as perhaps operational efficiency and ultimately, shareholder value, particularly by releasing some capital demand.

    好吧,當我們審視策略交易時,我們可能會看到一些貸款減少,從而透過策略交易降低貸存比,這些交易旨在提高流動性以及營運效率,並最終提高股東價值,特別是釋放部分資金需求。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. Chris, one of the, I'd say, the overarching strategies within the company is to really look at where we have scale and where we have relationships. Some businesses where we don't know the customer, they're just singularly using the balance sheet. Those would be businesses that probably would be complicated and difficult for us to hold on to in the future. And the market today is -- there's a lot of buyers for that kind of product. And so as we would execute on transactions, as Craig said, that would give us the ability to use that liquidity either to reduce wholesale borrowings or increase our liquidity.

    正確的。克里斯,我想說,公司內部的整體策略之一是真正關注我們在哪裡擁有規模以及在哪裡建立了關係。有些企業我們不了解客戶,他們只是單獨使用資產負債表。這些業務對我們來說未來可能會很複雜,也很難堅持下去。今天的市場是——有很多此類產品的買家。因此,正如克雷格所說,當我們執行交易時,這將使我們能夠利用流動性來減少批發借款或增加流動性。

  • Christopher Edward McGratty - MD & Head of United States Bank Research

    Christopher Edward McGratty - MD & Head of United States Bank Research

  • Great. And I guess as my follow-up, it's two parts. The $5 billion you talked about that you might be at a point to announce details. Can you share what asset class that is? And also, would be strategic decisions with the balance sheet also be considering like a CRT transaction where you reduce risk-weighted assets?

    偉大的。我想作為我的後續行動,它分為兩個部分。你談到的 50 億美元可能到了你要宣布細節的時候了。能分享一下那是什麼資產類別嗎?此外,資產負債表的策略決策是否也會像 CRT 交易一樣考慮,以減少風險加權資產?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Chris, I wanted to make sure people are aware of it in case we announced it in a day or 2. But I don't want to go into details. I think at this point, it's not appropriate to do that. But we are right at the doorstep of deciding whether we're going to move forward with that transaction.

    是的。克里斯,我想確保人們都知道這一點,以防我們在一兩天內宣布這一消息。我認為目前來看,這樣做是不合適的。但我們即將決定是否繼續推進該交易。

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Importantly, that transaction would be accretive to our capital ratios, it would reduce our capital demand and wouldn't have a significant effect on either immediate gains or losses or our earnings potential.

    重要的是,該交易將增加我們的資本比率,減少我們的資本需求,並且不會對直接收益或損失或我們的獲利潛力產生重大影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬南·戈薩利亞(Manan Gosalia)。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is Brian Wilsons selling in for Manan. Can you talk about your approach to complying with the long-term debt rules that were proposed last year? And related question is, what do the rating agencies need to see in order for you to have a better rating?

    這是布萊恩威爾遜 (Brian Wilsons) 為馬南 (Manan) 賣的。您能談談您遵守去年提出的長期債務規則的方法嗎?相關問題是,評級機構需要看到什麼才能讓您獲得更好的評級?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • I'll move to the last one. The second question. They need to see a reliable path towards earnings and the ability to demonstrate our understanding of the credit risk. I don't see that as an immediate term. We certainly think that there are opportunities for us to demonstrate our understanding of the business and our financial performance in a repeatable way that could lead to upgrade potential or positive outlook in a medium-term time frame.

    我將轉到最後一個。第二個問題。他們需要看到可靠的獲利途徑以及證明我們對信用風險的理解的能力。我不認為這是一個直接的術語。我們當然認為,我們有機會以可重複的方式展示我們對業務和財務表現的理解,這可能會在中期框架內提升潛力或積極的前景。

  • In terms of long-term debt rules, I think where we stand from a capital position will benefit -- our funding will benefit as we continue to increase our capital ratios, but we continue to evaluate our balance sheet position and have -- really haven't made any long-term decisions on how we'd be structured there.

    就長期債務規則而言,我認為我們的資本狀況將受益——隨著我們繼續提高資本比率,我們的資金將受益,但我們將繼續評估我們的資產負債表狀況,並擁有——真正的避風港沒有就我們在那裡的結構做出任何長期決定。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up, when it comes to bringing down the commercial real estate concentration, can you give some more details on the types of commercial real estate that you might choose to maintain or grow over time versus what you are more likely to deemphasize?

    好的。偉大的。然後,作為後續行動,在談到降低商業房地產集中度時,您能否提供更多有關您可能選擇隨著時間的推移而維持或增長的商業房地產類型以及您更有可能選擇的商業房地產類型的更多詳細資訊削弱?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, clearly, the biggest concentration is in the multi-family sector of the portfolio. So to move any significant numbers, you would have to reduce your exposure in that particular area. I would say from a risk perspective, it would be our desire to reduce our exposure in the office marketplace. We've done a pretty deep dive on $2.5 billion of the $3.3 billion of the portfolio. And so clearly, the stress there, I think there's been a fundamental change in how people are going to work and what space is going to be used in the future.

    嗯,顯然,最大的集中在投資組合的多戶住宅領域。因此,要移動任何重要的數字,您必須減少在該特定領域的風險敞口。我想說,從風險角度來看,我們希望減少在辦公市場的風險。我們已經對 33 億美元投資組合中的 25 億美元進行了相當深入的研究。很明顯,那裡的壓力,我認為人們的工作方式以及未來將使用的空間發生了根本性的變化。

  • It's just -- it's difficult to see the end on office and so I would say if I was -- where would I like to see the first reductions it would be an office, but then eventually, if you get down to that $30 billion level, we would definitely have to go into the multi-family book and reduce our exposure there.

    只是 - 很難看到辦公室的終結,所以我會說,如果我 - 我希望看到第一次削減在哪裡,那將是辦公室,但最終,如果你下降到 300 億美元的水平,我們肯定必須進入多戶家庭書籍並減少我們在那裡的接觸。

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • But I'd say it's more likely to be through how we manage our relationships and the transactions as opposed to portfolio sales.

    但我想說,這更有可能是透過我們如何管理我們的關係和交易而不是投資組合銷售來實現的。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. Yes. I mean our goal around here is like, A, if we have a relationship with you and the deposits, then if you want to do something and it's a good credit, we'll still do it for it. Option B is if you want us to do a loan and you're either going to bring deposits back or we can gather a big part of your relationship, we'll do those. Option C where you just want to use our balance sheet, we won't do transactions like that in the future.

    正確的。是的。我的意思是,我們的目標是,A,如果我們與您和存款有關係,那麼如果您想做某事並且信用良好,我們仍然會這樣做。選項 B 是,如果您希望我們提供貸款,並且您要么要退回存款,要么我們可以收集您關係的很大一部分,我們就會這樣做。選項C,您只想使用我們的資產負債表,我們將來不會進行類似的交易。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Ben Gerlinger with Citi.

    你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的本傑林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

  • Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - VP of Equity Research

    Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - VP of Equity Research

  • I know you gave a good amount of information on your independent -- or excuse me, the individual categories of some of your CRE book. Just curious, just because, I mean, multi-family reviewed roughly 1/3, some non-office series for the quarter. Is there an intention to do a complete 100%? Or did you start with the largest just to make sure you're kind of -- you're an appropriate area for your reserve levels?

    我知道您提供了大量有關獨立的資訊——或者對不起,您的一些 CRE 書籍的各個類別。只是好奇,只是因為,我的意思是,多戶家庭評論了大約 1/3,本季度的一些非辦公室系列。有沒有打算做到完全100%?或者您是否從最大的區域開始只是為了確保您是適合您的儲備水平的區域?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • So we started with the largest, not only because it's -- they're large loans, and we get more coverage with less count but because they're generally more institutionally owned as opposed to either family-owned or privately owned investments. And the decisioning factors are different there, as Joseph pointed out.

    因此,我們從最大的貸款開始,不僅因為它們是大額貸款,而且我們以較少的數量獲得了更多的覆蓋範圍,而且因為它們通常更多地是機構擁有的,而不是家族擁有或私人擁有的投資。正如約瑟夫指出的那樣,那裡的決定因素是不同的。

  • Additionally, obviously, as I mentioned, the refinance risk is more of a challenge when you're talking about $100 million credit as opposed to a $3 million credit. We will continue through our standard and improving credit processes to take a closer look at the smaller loan portfolio. And I'd say the next cut would be in a more standardized approach to look at our portfolio balances over about a $10 million threshold as we continue to look at that and as we continue to see borrower performance in the current environment, that could impact our reserving levels. But we believe that we have appropriate levels of reserves for the portfolio right now.

    此外,顯然,正如我所提到的,當您談論 1 億美元的信貸而不是 300 萬美元的信貸時,再融資風險更具挑戰性。我們將繼續透過我們的標準和改進的信貸流程來仔細研究較小的貸款組合。我想說,下一次削減將採用更標準化的方法來審視我們的投資組合餘額超過約1000 萬美元的門檻,因為我們將繼續關注這一點,並且隨著我們繼續看到借款人在當前環境下的表現,這可能會影響我們的儲備水準。但我們相信,目前我們的投資組合擁有適當的儲備水準。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • And one other thing. The next phase is we're kind of looking at the large borrowers and what we mean by that is instead of large loans we're going to look at where there's a consolidation of the borrowers. And then also any relationship, whether it's $10 billion or more by June 30, we'll be through that process. So when we report to you next time as well, we'll be able to kind of give some statistics around that. So we are kind of waterfalling our way down to the portfolio to make sure that we're comfortable with, obviously, the risk ratings and the reserves against the portfolio.

    還有一件事。下一階段我們將關注大型借款人,我們的意思是我們將專注於借款人整合的地方,而不是大型貸款。到 6 月 30 日,任何關係,無論是 100 億美元還是更多,我們都會完成這個過程。因此,當我們下次向您報告時,我們將能夠提供一些相關的統計數據。因此,我們將逐步深入投資組合,以確保我們對投資組合的風險評級和準備金感到滿意。

  • Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - VP of Equity Research

    Benjamin Tyson Gerlinger - VP of Equity Research

  • Got you. And just a follow up here quickly. I know you gave the guidance of an elevated loan loss provision throughout the rest of this year and it wanes pretty materially '25 and '26 in -- for this year, what is it really predicated on? Is it more so allowance building? Or is there some sort of -- as you push things that you might have to be marketing a loss similar to earlier this year? Just kind of -- I'm just trying to get a sense of why anticipate higher provisioning going forward for the next...

    明白你了。這裡只是快速跟進。我知道您在今年剩餘時間裡提出了提高貸款損失撥備的指導意見,並且在 25 年和 26 年大幅減少——今年,它的真正依據是什麼?津貼建設更重要嗎?或者是否有某種——當你推動一些事情時,你可能不得不行銷類似於今年早些時候的損失?只是有點 - 我只是想了解為什麼預計未來會有更高的配置...

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, I think it's a good question. I think that what we've seen is repricing at higher interest rate levels, obviously put stress on debt service coverage ratios for some borrowers. We've had really good experience and that's particularly relevant to the way we model credit loss for reserving purposes. But we also know that -- there will be some classes of borrowers that will experience stress.

    嗯,我認為這是一個好問題。我認為我們所看到的是在更高的利率水平上重新定價,這顯然給一些借款人的償債覆蓋率帶來了壓力。我們擁有非常好的經驗,這與我們為儲備目的建立信用損失模型的方式特別相關。但我們也知道,某些類別的借款人將會面臨壓力。

  • And as we begin to get more insight into current market level, debt service coverage ratios and see how those borrowers -- a broader population of those borrowers react in reset environments, we could see that until we -- until the rate curve comes down, that there'll be additional stress. Our expectations are based upon the current rate curve and the current marketing conditions. And those conditions could change. The Fed is talking about high longer and higher longer and that could have an impact on future conditions, and we've considered that as we put our forecast together.

    當我們開始更深入地了解當前的市場水平、償債覆蓋率,並了解這些借款人——更廣泛的借款人群體在重置環境中的反應時,我們可以看到,直到我們——直到利率曲線下降,會有額外的壓力。我們的預期是基於當前的利率曲線和當前的行銷狀況。這些條件可能會改變。聯準會正在談論更長的高利率,這可能會對未來的狀況產生影響,我們在綜合預測時已經考慮到了這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Christopher Marinac with Janney Montgomery Scott.

    您的下一個問題將來自克里斯多福·馬裡納克和詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特。

  • Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst

    Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst

  • Thanks for taking all of our questions and information. I wanted to drill down on the net reserve build. So we look at the provision guide that you gave us this year or next year, what type of charge-offs should we anticipate and how should net reserves change over time?

    感謝您提出我們所有的問題和資訊。我想深入了解淨儲備建設。因此,我們會看看您今年或明年向我們提供的撥備指南,我們應該預期哪種類型的沖銷以及淨準備金應如何隨時間變化?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So we anticipate an elevated level of charge-offs, we had about $80 million this quarter. And in our outlook, we don't distinguish dramatically between charge-offs and reserving, I should say, and reserve build because they all ultimately reflect the underlying credit loss of the portfolio. But I think that we'll see a ramping of charge-offs over the next couple of quarters. And then as we get out beyond that, whether it's a charge-off or reserve build, we think it will come back to a more normalized run rate credit loss.

    是的。因此,我們預計沖銷水準將會上升,本季我們的沖銷金額約為 8,000 萬美元。在我們的展望中,我應該說,我們並沒有對沖銷和準備金以及準備金建立進行顯著區分,因為它們最終都反映了投資組合的潛在信用損失。但我認為,在接下來的幾個季度中,我們將看到沖銷的增加。然後,當我們超越這個目標時,無論是沖銷還是準備金增加,我們認為它將回到更正常化的信用損失運作率。

  • Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst

    Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst

  • Great. And some of those charge-offs are taken, would some of that be kind of new loans that are reset and just taking the value impairment? Or would some of those would be loans that leave the bank altogether?

    偉大的。其中一些已被沖銷,其中一些是否會被重置並僅扣除價值減值的新貸款?或者其中一些貸款會完全離開銀行嗎?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • So it's loans that the charge-offs this quarter are principally a couple of office loans. And as when we talked about the office market is pretty stressed and it was a couple of stressed office loans that got to the point where the investors chose to have come to us and we had to take over the property. I think -- I don't know that we've taken them at this point but we look at them and believe that a loss is likely on those. But it's just a couple of office loans.

    因此,本季沖銷的貸款主要是幾筆辦公貸款。當我們談到辦公室市場壓力很大時,幾筆壓力很大的辦公室貸款導致投資者選擇來找我們,而我們不得不接管該房產。我認為——我不知道我們目前是否已經接受了它們,但我們審視了它們並相信這些可能會造成損失。但這只是幾筆辦公室貸款。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Bernard von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank.

    您的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Bernard von Gizycki。

  • Bernard Von Gizycki - Research Analyst

    Bernard Von Gizycki - Research Analyst

  • So with regards to being a Category 4 bank, in the 10-K, you noted anticipating significant expenses to develop policies, programs and systems that comply with the enhanced standards. I would have assumed the revamping of risk management infrastructure would also be costly. But I think, Craig, you noted it's included in the forecast today. So on today's call, it sounds you're optimistic about driving expenses down, which are seen in your forecast on Page 7. Can you just help reconcile these expected cost pressures and efficiencies you expect over time?

    因此,關於成為 4 類銀行,在 10-K 中,您指出預計將花費大量費用來製定符合增強標準的政策、計劃和系統。我以為風險管理基礎設施的改造也會代價高昂。但我想,克雷格,你注意到它已包含在今天的預測中。因此,在今天的電話會議上,聽起來您對降低開支持樂觀態度,這在您在第7 頁的預測中可以看出。的效率?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • So if you look on Page 7, you can see a walk forward. As I mentioned, it's roughly by year between 10% and 15% reduction. Obviously, there are some of those costs that are fixed that we can't do a lot about and there are other portions that are very manageable. If you think about our organization, we took free -- it wasn't a large bank that bought a small bank and there's only a little bit of opportunity to drive efficiency out of the organization as three banks that had three full sets of infrastructure.

    因此,如果您查看第 7 頁,您可以看到向前邁進。正如我所提到的,每年大約減少 10% 到 15%。顯然,其中一些成本是固定的,我們對此無能為力,而其他部分則非常易於管理。如果你想想我們的組織,我們就免費了——這不是一家大銀行收購了一家小銀行,而且只有一點點機會來提高組織的效率,因為三家銀行擁有三套全套基礎設施。

  • And we -- while we partially been able to take advantage of the opportunities there. There's certainly more to come. As Joseph mentioned, we have a strong existing employee base, but we brought in a number of management team members that have experience building risk management functions. We've done this before. And we have a pretty good feel of what that scale looks like and what the costs are for that. And so as we think about our forecast for the future, I think there's a pretty high degree of predictability around what the costs are associated with the risk management build, and we've contemplated that in these numbers.

    而我們——雖然我們能夠部分地利用那裡的機會。當然還有更多的事情要做。正如約瑟夫所提到的,我們擁有強大的現有員工基礎,但我們引進了一些具有建構風險管理職能經驗的管理團隊成員。我們以前已經這樣做過。我們對這個規模以及成本有一個很好的了解。因此,當我們考慮對未來的預測時,我認為與風險管理建構相關的成本具有相當高的可預測性,我們已經在這些數字中考慮到了這一點。

  • Bernard Von Gizycki - Research Analyst

    Bernard Von Gizycki - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just another follow-up from the 10-K. You noted a number of items included in the remediation status of the reported material weaknesses identified by your auditors. Just a few items noted included the infrequency of reporting, expanding the use of independent credit analysis, reducing the reliance on internally created tools and just assessing staffing qualifications.

    好的。然後是 10-K 的另一個後續行動。您注意到審計師發現的已報告重大缺陷的補救狀態中包含了許多項目。提到的幾個項目包括報告頻率低、擴大獨立信用分析的使用、減少對內部創建工具的依賴以及僅評估員工資格。

  • Could you just help explain the situation you inherited. It does sound like the department was working entirely on manual spreadsheets, had no defined reporting or guidelines. So any color here would be helpful to just understand the situation that you inherited.

    您能幫忙解釋一下您繼承的情況嗎?聽起來該部門確實完全在手動電子表格上工作,沒有明確的報告或指南。因此,這裡的任何顏色都有助於了解您繼承的情況。

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think that probably the biggest indicator of the situation was just that there wasn't as much visibility to the developing situation in the office market and to a small degree, in the multi-family market and the impacts that, that would have on provisioning. So that ultimately passed through in the 10-K and the fourth quarter in a big reserve. I think what we've demonstrated here is that this management team, along with the existing staff, have done a good job to really catch up, so to speak.

    是的。我認為,這種情況的最大指標可能是,辦公大樓市場的發展情況以及多戶住宅市場的發展以及對供應的影響都沒有那麼明顯。因此最終在 10-K 和第四節以大儲備通過。我認為我們在這裡所展示的是,可以說,這個管理團隊以及現有員工做得很好,真正迎頭趕上。

  • Now our internal infrastructure still has a lot of improvement to go, and we continue to work on those action plans. Again, many of us are pretty new here. And so we're jumping into existing action plans and bringing our knowledge and experience into how we can further improve those. So we have a ways to go. We're not done, but over the last 4 to 6 weeks, we've done a lot of work to make up for some of the previous deficiencies at least as we stand today.

    現在,我們的內部基礎設施仍有許多改進空間,我們將繼續制定這些行動計畫。再說一遍,我們中的許多人都是新來的。因此,我們正在跳入現有的行動計劃,並將我們的知識和經驗融入如何進一步改進這些計劃中。所以我們還有很長的路要走。我們還沒有完成,但在過去的 4 到 6 周里,我們做了很多工作來彌補之前的一些缺陷,至少現在是這樣。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And the other thing that I would add is we have brought very experienced talent into the company from Jim Simmons, who for 20 years was the head approval Officer and ran the work out for commercial real estate at U.S. Bank joined us, he's called the special assistant to the President, but we wanted Jim to come in and look at all the processes, the forecasting of NPLs, charge-offs and so Jim is working on that project right now, and we're adding additional staff into that infrastructure as well. So we recognize the need to beat that up, but we don't see that as a heavy lift for us. We think that's more just bringing our expertise and the talents together. The information is available to us. We just need to formulate that information in the right way.

    是的。我要補充的另一件事是,我們從吉姆·西蒙斯(Jim Simmons) 那裡引進了經驗豐富的人才,他在美國合眾銀行(U.S. Bank) 擔任首席審批官20 年,負責商業房地產的工作,加入我們後,他被稱為「特別」總裁助理,但我們希望吉姆進來看看所有流程、不良貸款預測、沖銷,所以吉姆現在正在研究這個項目,我們也在該基礎設施中增加額外的人員。因此,我們認識到有必要解決這個問題,但我們不認為這對我們來說是一個沉重的負擔。我們認為這只是將我們的專業知識和人才結合在一起。這些資訊可供我們使用。我們只需要以正確的方式表達這些資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Casey Haire with Jefferies.

    您的下一個問題將來自凱西·海爾 (Casey Haire) 和杰弗里斯 (Jefferies) 的線路。

  • Casey Haire - VP & Equity Analyst

    Casey Haire - VP & Equity Analyst

  • Follow-up on credit quality. So following the review of some of the more troubled exposures in your loan book, office, multifamily and traditional CRE. Just wondering what kind of price declines you guys came across as you build reserves? Just looking for some...

    信用品質跟踪。因此,請回顧一下您的貸款簿、辦公室、多戶住宅和傳統 CRE 中的一些問題較多的風險。只是想知道你們在建立儲備時遇到了什麼樣的價格下跌?只是想找一些...

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, it depends on the book. But I would tell you that we're -- our reserving process contemplated 42% price declines in office and in the 30-ish range for multi-family. that's the way we've modeled it. If you think about LTVs, that's why we see offices pretty stressed because our origination LTVs that 42% puts us pretty close.

    是的,這取決於書。但我想告訴你,我們的預訂流程預計辦公室價格下降 42%,多戶住宅價格下降 30% 左右。這就是我們建模的方式。如果您考慮 LTV,這就是為什麼我們看到辦公室壓力很大,因為我們最初的 LTV 為 42%,使我們非常接近。

  • On the multi-family book, our origination LTVs were in the 60% range. Our origination debt service coverage was in the 1.6 plus coverage ratio level. So if we think about current LTVs being in that multi-family book, perhaps down as much as 30%, which is what we modeled, that puts the overall loan-to-value ratio potentially in the high 80s, low 90s range. And if you think about the resets and the rate level for resets, depending on where we are in the rate curve and when those reset they're sort of hovering in that 1 to 1.1 debt service coverage ratio, which is why we're not seeing a lot of defaults is because they're able to cover the debt service, they're not making as much money as they would like for owners, but they're able to cover the debt service.

    在多戶家庭帳簿上,我們的初始 LTV 處於 60% 的範圍內。我們的初始債務償付覆蓋率處於 1.6 以上的覆蓋率水準。因此,如果我們考慮多戶帳簿中目前的 LTV,可能會下降 30%(這就是我們建模的結果),那麼整體貸款價值比可能會處於 80 多歲、90 多歲的範圍內。如果你考慮重置和重置的利率水平,這取決於我們在利率曲線中的位置,以及重置時它們的償債覆蓋率徘徊在 1 比 1.1 的水平,這就是我們不這樣做的原因看到大量違約是因為他們有能力償還債務,他們沒有為業主賺到那麼多錢,但他們有能力償還債務。

  • Casey Haire - VP & Equity Analyst

    Casey Haire - VP & Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And then on Slide 8, you guys outlined your relative position versus Cat 4 banks. One of the metrics not here is the CRE concentration. It sounds like you guys are -- your forecast is based on a flat balance sheet aside from the $5 billion potential sale. But on a flat balance sheet, with C&I, I think, Craig, I think you mentioned a $10 billion growth opportunity in C&I longer term. Just wondering how does the CRE concentration evolve in the coming years on a flat balance sheet?

    知道了。然後在幻燈片 8 上,你們概述了與 Cat 4 銀行的相對位置。這裡沒有的指標之一是 CRE 濃度。聽起來你們是這樣的——除了 50 億美元的潛在銷售額之外,你們的預測是基於平坦的資產負債表。但在平坦的資產負債表上,對於 C&I,我認為克雷格,我認為您提到了 C&I 的長期成長機會為 100 億美元。只是想知道在資產負債表平坦的情況下,未來幾年商業房地產的集中度將如何演變?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • I think it evolves as we work through the refinance reset and maturity cycle over the next 2 to 3 years and retain the credits that we want, where we have broader business relationships and allow the credits that are more balance sheet use focused to run off the balance sheet, then we're able to have capital to deploy into these growing business opportunities.

    我認為,隨著我們在未來2 到3 年內完成再融資重置和到期週期並保留我們想要的信貸,它將不斷發展,我們擁有更廣泛的業務關係,並允許更注重資產負債表使用的信貸來耗盡資產負債表,然後我們就能夠有資本來部署這些不斷成長的商機。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And just to point out of information. It isn't like we're saying the balance sheet is going to remain flat. In our baseline case, we had it flat. And then the other attributes of asset sales, winding down businesses could have obviously impacts to the size of the balance sheet. So it's just in the baseline case, that's the way it sat. But clearly, if we're sitting here 3 years from now, we would like to be looking down the path of a $30 billion CRE portfolio.

    是的。只是為了指出訊息。我們並不是說資產負債表將保持穩定。在我們的基準案例中,我們的情況是平坦的。然後,資產出售、企業清算等其他屬性可能會對資產負債表的規模產生明顯影響。所以這只是在基線情況下,就是這樣。但顯然,如果 3 年後我們坐在這裡,我們希望看到 300 億美元的 CRE 投資組合的發展路徑。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of George Shaw with Barclays.

    你的下一個問題將來自喬治·肖與巴克萊銀行的關係。

  • Jared David Wesley Shaw - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Jared David Wesley Shaw - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • It is actually Jared Shaw. but just a quick question on liquidity expectations. How should we be thinking about on balance sheet liquidity and HQLA in light of some of the guidance that you're seeing here?

    實際上是傑瑞德·肖。但這只是一個關於流動性預期的簡單問題。根據您在這裡看到的一些指導,我們應該如何考慮資產負債表流動性和 HQLA?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So on balance sheet liquidity right now is ample. As I pointed out, we have quite a bit more on balance sheet liquidity today than what we have in uninsured deposits, as I mentioned, to the extent that we do transactions, I would expect that a good portion of that, at least in the near term, would be continuing on balance sheet liquidity.

    是的。因此,目前資產負債表上的流動性充足。正如我所指出的,我們今天的資產負債表流動性比未保險存款多得多,正如我所提到的,就我們進行交易而言,我預計其中很大一部分,至少在短期內,資產負債表的流動性將持續增加。

  • I don't really expect to grow the securities portfolio substantially. It will be pretty short-term liquid liquidity. As I mentioned, we're pretty interest rate risk neutral right now. I'm not sure I want to extend the duration very far out, we'll take a look at it. But we're pretty interest rate risk neutral, so we like the balance of our liquidity mix.

    我並不真正期望大幅增加證券投資組合。這將是相當短期的流動性。正如我所提到的,我們目前的利率風險相當中立。我不確定是否要將持續時間延長很遠,我們會考慮一下。但我們對利率風險相當中性,因此我們喜歡流動性組合的平衡。

  • Jared David Wesley Shaw - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Jared David Wesley Shaw - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just two quick modeling questions. Do you have what the loan accretion was in the quarter? And then when we look at the expense guide, is that including intangible amortization?

    好的。然後是兩個快速建模問題。您知道本季的貸款成長情況嗎?然後,當我們查看費用指南時,這是否包括無形攤銷?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • The expense guide is including intangible amortization, I don't have the loan accretion.

    費用指南包括無形攤銷,我沒有貸款增值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

    您的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

  • Sun Young Lee - Analyst

    Sun Young Lee - Analyst

  • This is actually Janet Lee on for Steve Alexopoulos. Back to your flat balance sheet comment earlier, is it fair to say that overall deposits are basically staying flattish through 2026 at the $75 billion level. And in your NII outlook, what is assumed for your -- what is assumed for your noninterest-bearing deposits to bottom out? And can you share color on how that deposit mix should change from here for the remainder of 2024?

    這實際上是珍妮特李 (Janet Lee) 為史蒂夫阿萊克索普洛斯 (Steve Alexopoulos) 配音的。回到您之前關於資產負債表持平的評論,可以公平地說,到 2026 年,整體存款基本上保持在 750 億美元的水平上持平嗎?在您的國家資訊基礎設施展望中,您的無利息存款會觸底反彈的假設是什麼?您能否分享一下 2024 年剩餘時間裡存款組合應如何變化?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • We've been pretty conservative from a forecasting standpoint. We've assumed a flat mix to date. We do expect that we'll see, as Joseph mentioned, as we expand our relationships with many of these customers into deeper relationships, we expect to see more demand deposit and transactional type funding. And so there's the opportunity for upside in terms of our funding mix, but in our base model that we presented, we haven't included an optimistic outlook on that, so to speak.

    從預測的角度來看,我們相當保守。迄今為止,我們假設採用扁平混合。正如約瑟夫所提到的,我們確實希望看到,隨著我們與許多客戶的關係擴大到更深的關係,我們預計會看到更多的活期存款和交易型融資。因此,我們的融資組合存在上升的機會,但可以說,在我們提出的基本模型中,我們並沒有對此包含樂觀的前景。

  • Sun Young Lee - Analyst

    Sun Young Lee - Analyst

  • Okay. And as your CRE loans are coming down to a $30 billion range over the next few years. Can you give us a more detailed time line on that? And then where do you expect your overall loan balance to be at towards the end of 2024? And what's a more normalized level of loan growth for you going forward in 2025 and '26?

    好的。未來幾年,您的 CRE 貸款將降至 300 億美元。您能給我們更詳細的時間表嗎?那麼您預計 2024 年底您的整體貸款餘額會是多少? 2025 年和 26 年,您認為更正常的貸款成長水準是多少?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • So the portfolio -- excuse me, the forecast that we've included does not really include a loan mix change in the outlook. These are more think of them as strategic plans as opposed to forecasting. But as we think about the potential, as I mentioned, we have about $4 million a year that will hit -- that will hit resets and maturities over the next 3 years. And so you think about that's the kind of -- and the bulk of that is either multifamily or office, about $2.5 million of that a year is multi-family. So as we think about the opportunity it's -- that kind of sizes what is -- would be a natural opportunity to adjust concentrations over the next 3 years as opposed to portfolio sales. And as we think about loan growth, we haven't modeled substantial loan growth in the book here. We kept the balance sheet relatively flat.

    所以,抱歉,我們的投資組合預測並沒有真正包括前景中的貸款組合變化。這些更多地將其視為戰略計劃而不是預測。但正如我所提到的,當我們考慮潛力時,我們每年將有大約 400 萬美元的資金——這將在未來 3 年內進行重置和到期。所以你想一想,其中大部分是多戶住宅或辦公室,每年大約 250 萬美元是多戶住宅。因此,當我們思考這個機會時——這種規模——將是一個自然的機會,可以在未來三年內調整集中度,而不是投資組合銷售。當我們考慮貸款成長時,我們沒有在本書中對大幅貸款成長進行建模。我們保持資產負債表相對穩定。

  • Sun Young Lee - Analyst

    Sun Young Lee - Analyst

  • Okay. And my last question on credit. Besides the couple of office charge-offs you had in the first quarter, can you talk about how much of a rent-regulated multifamily and CRE loans that came due in 1Q '24? And what happened to these loans? How much got refinanced or paid off or these given modifications and extensions?

    好的。我最後一個關於信用的問題。除了第一季的幾項辦公室沖銷之外,您能否談談在 2024 年第一季到期的受租金監管的多戶住宅和商業地產貸款有多少?這些貸款後來怎麼了?多少得到了再融資或還清或這些給定的修改和擴展?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, as I mentioned over the last 18 months, we've had $2 billion that has reached our reset dates and 1/4 of that has paid off and 75% of that has refinanced and the performance has been really, really strong. I'm not going to say that we haven't had any delinquencies. There's probably one or two out there, but it's essentially no delinquencies to date on those loans that have reset at current rate levels. And the first quarter performance is relatively similar. I mean something that reset in the first quarter hasn't had much time to perform. So I don't want to speak too hard on that. But the overall characteristics of the first quarter weren't any different than the previous 12 months.

    嗯,正如我在過去 18 個月中提到的,我們已經有 20 億美元達到了重置日期,其中 1/4 已經得到回報,其中 75% 已經進行了再融資,表現非常非常強勁。我並不是說我們沒有任何拖欠。可能有一兩個,但到目前為止,那些以當前利率水準重置的貸款基本上沒有拖欠。與第一季的表現比較相似。我的意思是,第一季重置的東西沒有太多時間來執行。所以我不想對此說得太激烈。但第一季的整體特徵與前 12 個月沒有任何不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question will come from the line of Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

    下一個問題將來自 Peter Winter 和 D.A.戴維森。

  • Peter J. Winter - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Peter J. Winter - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Can you provide an update on the criticized and classified loans, the trends this quarter?

    您能否提供本季受到批評和分類的貸款的最新情況和趨勢?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So we did have about a little over $1 billion of rating changes, but criticized and classifieds, I'm just taking a quick look here. So criticized and classifieds increased about $500 million from quarter-to-quarter -- not -- wrong number, I'm sorry. resizing classifieds increased about $2 billion from quarter-to-quarter. And those were the -- two of the loans that we're looking at as we think about how do changes in the interest rate curve impact them when they get to the reprice dates. Not all of those reprice in the near term. But overall, it was about a $2 billion increase.

    是的。因此,我們確實進行了大約 10 億美元多一點的評級變更,但受到了批評和分類,我只是在這裡快速瀏覽一下。因此,受到批評的是,分類廣告每季增加了約 5 億美元——不是——錯誤的數字,我很抱歉。調整分類廣告尺寸季增了約 20 億美元。這些是我們正在研究的兩筆貸款,因為我們正在考慮利率曲線的變化在它們到達重新定價日期時如何影響它們。並非所有這些都會在短期內重新定價。但總體而言,增加了約 20 億美元。

  • Peter J. Winter - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Peter J. Winter - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then just if I could just ask -- if I look at the average share count, pretty much most people got it wrong in the first quarter. Just how do we -- how should we think about the average share count in the second and third quarter?

    知道了。然後,如果我可以問一下——如果我看看平均股票數量,幾乎大多數人在第一季都弄錯了。我們該如何考慮第二季和第三季的平均股數?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I won't say that people necessarily got it wrong. It's a confusing math story in part because the way we're presenting in this deck is on a fully converted basis for the preferred stock. So the transaction that we did in March had a good portion of that being preferred. So we have 750 million shares today. And on an as-converted basis, will be over $1 billion, and we present the details of that in the materials, but that's an expectation that those shares would convert in the second quarter. And so all of our information has been presented as if those shares were fully converted throughout the forecast period.

    是的。我不會說人們一定弄錯了。這是一個令人困惑的數學故事,部分原因是我們在這副牌中呈現的方式是在優先股完全轉換的基礎上進行的。因此,我們在三月進行的交易中有很大一部分是首選的。所以我們今天有 7.5 億股。在轉換後的基礎上,將超過 10 億美元,我們在材料中提供了詳細信息,但預計這些股票將在第二季度轉換。因此,我們提供的所有資訊就好像這些股票在整個預測期內完全轉換一樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens.

    你的下一個問題來自馬修·布里斯和史蒂芬斯的對話。

  • Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

    Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

  • I was hoping you could talk about the potential sale and one-off of nonstrategic assets beyond the identified $5 billion, areas you're focused on and the amount you deem nonstrategic. And then in addition, last quarter, you discussed the CRE concentration and the need to get that in line with Category 4 bank peers, which is a significant gap between where you are today. I'm curious where you see that CRE concentration going by year-end 2016 with the rest of the guidance areas capital and profitability.

    我希望您能談談超出確定的 50 億美元的潛在出售和一次性非戰略資產、您關注的領域以及您認為非戰略性的金額。此外,上個季度,您討論了商業房地產的集中度以及使其與第四類銀行同行保持一致的必要性,這與您今天的水平存在顯著差距。我很好奇您認為到 2016 年底 CRE 的集中程度與其他指導領域的資本和盈利能力的情況如何。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • So Matthew, obviously, we're not in a position to comment on the $5 billion. So as I indicated, we are close to being -- have the option of choosing that transaction. So we'll be working on that over the next 24, 48 hours. As far as like our process, we really have been -- both Craig and I have been here for a relatively short period of time but going through, sitting down with the business owners within the company and trying to understand the business, we have got within the company and trying to understand the business, we've had numerous meetings to kind of go through, sit down and understand the business and make a determination, where is it that we have relationships. And so that has really given us the opportunity to kind of then come back, and we're going to put through a process where we'll build our strategic plan for the company. And we'll be in a position to give you better identification when we get together for the second quarter. After we've had a little bit more time to kind of go through that and make some determination of which are strategic assets and which are not.

    所以馬修,顯然我們無法對這 50 億美元發表評論。正如我所指出的,我們即將擁有選擇該交易的選擇權。因此,我們將在接下來的 24、48 小時內解決這個問題。就我們的流程而言,我們確實 - 克雷格和我在這裡待的時間相對較短,但通過與公司內的企業主坐下來並試圖了解業務,我們得到了在公司內部,為了了解業務,我們開了很多會議,坐下來了解業務並做出決定,我們在哪裡建立關係。因此,這確實給了我們一個回來的機會,我們將完成一個流程,為公司製定策略計畫。當我們在第二季度聚在一起時,我們將能夠為您提供更好的識別。在我們有更多時間來仔細研究並確定哪些是戰略資產、哪些不是戰略資產之後。

  • Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

    Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

  • And then on the CRE concentration, where do you anticipate that being by year-end 2016?

    那麼就商業不動產集中度而言,您預計到 2016 年底會達到什麼程度?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • What do I think what, Matthew?

    我怎麼想,馬修?

  • Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

    Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

  • The commercial real estate concentration.

    商業地產集中。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • I mean, I think the commercial real estate concentration probably -- I think in an ideal world, you're probably somewhere around 25% to 30%, some type of consumer related, probably 40% in C&I and probably 30% in your CRE. We really see the growth potential in the C&I based upon not only my experience, but the talent that we will draw into the company.

    我的意思是,我認為商業房地產的集中度可能- 我認為在理想的世界中,您可能會在25% 到30% 左右,某種類型的消費者相關,可能40% 在C&I,可能30%在CRE 。我們確實看到了 C&I 的成長潛力,不僅基於我的經驗,還基於我們將吸引到公司的人才。

  • Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

    Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

  • Okay. And then I did want to touch on capital. How are you thinking about the warrants and timing on those being exercised? Or is that a longer-term item? And then I wanted to touch on TLAC-related debt, whether that's incorporated in your 2026 outlook.

    好的。然後我確實想談談資本。您如何看待認股權證和行使認股權證的時間?或者說這是一個長期專案?然後我想談談 TLAC 相關債務,是否已納入你們的 2026 年展望中。

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • The answer is on TLAC, we haven't incorporated a significant amount of long-term debt in this outlook. With respect to the warrants, the capital numbers that we include here do not include any capital that would come from the exercise of the warrants. They do include an allocation of a portion of the $1 billion capital raise in March to the warrant classification, but we haven't included anything from an exercise price. So there's potential upside from that.

    答案就在 TLAC 上,我們在此展望中並未納入大量長期債務。就認股權證而言,我們在此所包含的資本數字不包括因行使認股權證而產生的任何資本。它們確實包括將 3 月份 10 億美元融資的一部分分配給認股權證分類,但我們沒有包括任何行使價格。所以這有潛在的好處。

  • Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

    Matthew M. Breese - MD & Analyst

  • Okay. And then last one for me is how much in deposits are at the bank [prior] to signature legacy specialized mortgage solutions team? And then how sticky important is that business to you going forward?

    好的。對我來說最後一個問題是,在簽署傳統的專業抵押貸款解決方案團隊之前,銀行有多少存款?那麼這項業務對您未來的黏性有多重要?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, I think I'd focus on -- less on the signature and more on the mortgage banking aspect. They're business relationships that are part of either broader business activities or our mortgage model more so than the signature advisers, so to speak. It's roughly about -- it varies because they're mortgage is Escrow related so some of them move up and down in principal and interest and the cash flows is associated with that. But call it, big round numbers, $3 billion to $4 billion. It's not a big number for us.

    嗯,我想我應該少關注簽名,多關注抵押貸款銀行方面。可以這麼說,他們是更廣泛的商業活動或我們的抵押貸款模式的一部分的業務關係,而不是簽名顧問。大致上是這樣的——它有所不同,因為它們的抵押貸款與託管相關,所以其中一些本金和利息會上下波動,而現金流量與之相關。但是,大整數,30 億到 40 億美元。對我們來說這不是一個大數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Steve Moss with Raymond James.

    你的下一個問題來自史蒂夫·莫斯和雷蒙·詹姆斯的對話。

  • Stephen M. Moss - Research Analyst

    Stephen M. Moss - Research Analyst

  • Maybe just going back to multi-family credit here. I hear you guys with regard to rates seem to be influencing your expectation on credit costs. Should we think about the provision primarily being driven by loans resetting over the next 12 to 18 months? And could that provision therefore be more elevated as we go through a larger set of resets over the next 4 to 5 years if we stay up at a 4% to 5% coupon on the 5 year?

    也許只是回到多家庭信貸。我聽說你們關於利率的問題似乎正在影響你們對信貸成本的預期。我們是否應該考慮該準備金主要是由未來 12 至 18 個月內貸款重置所驅動的?如果我們在第 5 年保持 4% 到 5% 的息票,那麼隨著我們在未來 4 到 5 年經歷更大規模的重置,這項準備金是否會更高?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, I think we focused our credit review based on where the market forecasts are from interest rates. I mean, certainly, it could, as I mentioned, we have $4 billion in the whole book that matures that resets over the next -- each year over the next 3 years, if you get out into 2027, it's about $9 billion.

    嗯,我認為我們的信用審查重點是基於市場預測的利率。我的意思是,當然,正如我所提到的,我們在整本書中可能有 40 億美元,在接下來的三年裡每年都會重置,如果你到 2027 年,大約是 90 億美元。

  • So you've got a bit of a bubble as you sort of take 5-year stuff out to 2027. So if you see rates stay as high that long, but I think that would think there's other issues that might foretell for the economy if we see rates that high that long.

    所以,當你把 5 年期的東西放到 2027 年時,就會出現一些泡沫。時間。

  • Stephen M. Moss - Research Analyst

    Stephen M. Moss - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then in terms of just the ability for a number of these borrowers who are in more aggressive structures to pay. It sounds like you have some expectation of government subsidies, whether it's tax benefits or other programs. Just kind of curious how much maybe government programs are influencing your expectations on credit cost going forward? And one other thing with regard to the coverage there, just curious as to -- I'll stop there with that.

    好的。然後,就許多結構更為激進的借款人的支付能力而言。聽起來你對政府補助有一些期望,無論是稅收優惠還是其他計畫。只是有點好奇政府計劃可能會在多大程度上影響您對未來信貸成本的預期?關於那裡的報道還有另一件事,只是好奇──我就到此為止。

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • So I'd say that we have -- government support hasn't really influenced our view on credit risk or reserving. I think what we were really speaking to more is if not the government aspects, but just simply the ownership aspects, what types of owners, how they've invested, what their historical investment path has been, whether they have significant basis or a small basis and the potential for tax implications to them if they were to exit versus continue to hold and support the debt.

    所以我想說,政府的支持並沒有真正影響我們對信用風險或準備金的看法。我認為我們真正談論的更多的是如果不是政府方面,而只是簡單的所有權方面,什麼類型的所有者,他們如何投資,他們的歷史投資路徑是什麼,他們是否有重要的基礎或小基礎基礎以及如果他們退出還是繼續持有和支持債務,對他們的稅收影響的可能性。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And Steve, the thing I would add there is the owners of these properties will come and advise us that they have -- are seeking tax abatement. And we do not put that into our models on their NOI until we until they get it. And so -- and there have been some recent surprises that they were able to get those completed, which were very positive for the properties.

    是的。史蒂夫,我要補充的是,這些房產的所有者會來告訴我們,他們正在尋求減稅。我們不會將其放入他們的 NOI 模型中,直到他們得到為止。因此,最近出現了一些令人驚訝的事情,他們能夠完成這些工作,這對這些房產來說是非常積極的。

  • Stephen M. Moss - Research Analyst

    Stephen M. Moss - Research Analyst

  • Right. Okay. I appreciate that. And just two more for me. In terms of -- Craig, you mentioned debt service coverage on the portfolio of 1.6. But I think when previous management was disclosing that, it was on current payment terms. Is that service coverage ratio on current payment terms or full P&I for even the interest-only loans?

    正確的。好的。我很感激。對我來說還有兩個。就克雷格而言,您提到了 1.6 投資組合的償債覆蓋範圍。但我認為,當以前的管理層披露這一點時,是按照當前的付款條件進行的。此服務覆蓋率是當前付款條件下的服務覆蓋率還是僅付息貸款的全額保賠險?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • So the number I gave you was on current payment terms based upon current -- on current payment terms and their existing contractual rates on full P&I, it's, call it, 20 basis points lower than that.

    所以我給你的數字是基於當前的付款條件,基於當前的付款條件以及完整保賠險的現有合約費率,比這低 20 個基點。

  • Stephen M. Moss - Research Analyst

    Stephen M. Moss - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And last one for me, just curious here as to when the lockup expires for the investors in March?

    好的。我的最後一個問題是,我只是好奇三月投資者的禁售期何時到期?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • I don't know the answer to that question.

    我不知道這個問題的答案。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Jon Arfstrom。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • One for each of you. Craig, for you on Slide 6, your numbers suggest maybe a modest loss from here for '24, maybe breakeven, I don't know. But how should we think about the cadence of earnings in the very near term? Should we expect a second quarter loss and then profitability to build from there? Are you sending a different message there?

    你們每人一份。克雷格,對於幻燈片 6 上的您來說,您的數據表明 24 年可能會出現適度的損失,也許是盈虧平衡,我不知道。但我們該如何考慮短期內的獲利節奏呢?我們是否應該預期第二季會出現虧損,然後再獲利?您在那裡發送不同的訊息嗎?

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • No, I think you're seeing the message.

    不,我想您已經看到了這則訊息。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • Okay. So all right. That's helpful. And then, Joseph, for you, much bigger picture, any major surprises for you on the deep dive. And you raised $1 billion based on what you know now, is that enough? Or is it too much, given what you know right now?

    好的。那麼好吧。這很有幫助。然後,約瑟夫,對你來說,有更大的前景,在深入研究中會給你帶來任何重大驚喜。根據你現在所知,你籌集了 10 億美元,這足夠了嗎?或者,根據你現在所知道的情況,這是否太多了?

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • No. We think it was appropriate. When we went through the due diligence process, initially, we had a smaller number and then it was concluded, it needed to be north of $1 billion. So I think that's the right number. When you look at kind of our CET1 and the baseline where we are today and how that grows, we feel like we have sufficient liquidity and capital to execute the business plan.

    不,我們認為這是合適的。當我們進行盡職調查過程時,最初我們得到的數字較小,但最終得出的結論是,它需要超過 10 億美元。所以我認為這是正確的數字。當你看看我們的 CET1 和我們今天的基準以及它如何成長時,我們覺得我們有足夠的流動性和資本來執行業務計劃。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • Okay. And no real surprises from your point of view and the...

    好的。從你的角度來看並沒有真正的驚喜...

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, I mean when you say surprises, I wish the regulatory relationships were better at the organization. We have a lot of work to do, and that's on us that we were -- we, as an organization, in some regards, we're not ready to be regulated by the OCC. And so we have a lot of catching up to do to get our standards up, but we're committed to doing that. And we've hired the people who understand what that looks like.

    嗯,我的意思是,當你說驚喜時,我希望組織內的監管關係能更好。我們還有很多工作要做,這就是我們的責任——作為一個組織,在某些方面,我們還沒有準備好接受 OCC 的監管。因此,為了提高我們的標準,我們還有很多工作要做,但我們致力於做到這一點。我們聘請了了解這是什麼樣子的人。

  • And I think part of the problem we had before was we didn't have people that could visualize the end game or work environment that have that proper regulatory infrastructure. So I would say that is kind of number one. Number two, Craig and I grew up where every unit in the bank of significance has their own personal financial statements, and we do monthly reviews with them, and we're constantly forecasting out with those business units, what their business is going to look like over a 12-quarter basis. That doesn't exist in this company. I think culturally, that will change a lot when we get that implemented. That isn't a long-term thing. That will be a relatively short thing, will get done. And then we can do a much more accurate job, I think, and influence the performance of the company by driving that through those businesses.

    我認為我們之前遇到的部分問題是我們沒有人能夠想像最終的遊戲或具有適當監管基礎設施的工作環境。所以我想說這是第一名。第二,在克雷格和我成長的過程中,銀行中的每個重要部門都有自己的個人財務報表,我們每月與他們一起進行審查,並且我們不斷與這些業務部門一起預測他們的業務將會是什麼樣子就像超過 12 個季度的基礎。這在公司裡是不存在的。我認為從文化上來說,當我們實施這一點時,這將會發生很大的變化。這不是一個長期的事情。這將是一個相對較短的事情,將會完成。我認為,然後我們可以做得更準確,並透過這些業務來推動公司的表現。

  • Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

    Craig E. Gifford - Senior Executive VP & CFO

  • Will make us more nimble.

    會讓我們更加敏捷。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • And the other thing I would just add to that is when the infrastructure part of the company can spend money and the business units are being allocated, and we need to create a little tension between infrastructure and the lines where they'll be paying for it. So there's a little bit of pushback and questioning the dollar amount. There's -- that enhances, I think, our financial disciplines.

    我要補充的另一件事是,當公司的基礎設施部分可以花錢並且業務部門正在分配時,我們需要在基礎設施和他們將支付費用的線路之間造成一點緊張。因此,存在一些阻力和質疑美元金額。我認為這可以加強我們的財務紀律。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I will now turn the call back over to Joseph Otting for any closing remarks.

    現在,我將把電話轉回給約瑟夫·奧廷(Joseph Otting),讓其發表結束語。

  • Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

    Joseph M. Otting - President, CEO & Director

  • Okay. Well, first of all, thank you all for joining the call today. It was an important day for us and the company and the Board to be able to share this information with you. We're excited about the journey ahead. We do recognize it's going to take a lot of work. But we also think that this plan is achievable and one that the management team will be able to execute on. And so appreciate your support and confidence in us. And as Craig said, we do look forward to having some follow-up calls and information to be able to address any particular questions that people have. So thank you very much.

    好的。首先,感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。對於我們、公司和董事會來說,能夠與您分享這些訊息是一個重要的日子。我們對未來的旅程感到興奮。我們確實認識到這需要做很多工作。但我們也認為這項計劃是可以實現的,並且管理團隊能夠執行該計劃。感謝您對我們的支持與信任。正如克雷格所說,我們確實期待一些後續電話和訊息,以便能夠解決人們提出的任何特定問題。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。