NatWest Group PLC (NWG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the NatWest Group Annual Results 2023 Management Presentation.

早安，歡迎參加 NatWest Group 2023 年業績管理展示會。

Today's presentation will be hosted by Chairman Howard Davies, CEO Paul Thwaite and CFO Katie Murray. After presentation, we'll take questions.

今天的演講將由董事長 Howard Davies、執行長 Paul Thwaite 和財務長 Katie Murray 主持。演示結束後，我們將回答問題。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Paul, Katie and me for our Full Year Results Call.

大家早安，感謝大家參加保羅、凱蒂和我舉行的全年業績電話會議。

This will be the last set of results the bank publishes before I stand down as Chairman. And in addition to our full year results this morning, we've also announced the appointment of Paul Thwaite as our permanent Group CEO. As you will know, Rick Haythornthwaite was announced as my successor in September last year. He joined the group Board formally as a nonexecutive director at the start of last month and will take over from me as Chair on the 15th of April. He led the process to appoint our new CEO. The bank this new leadership team inherits is very different from the one I joined in 2015. The group has returned to profitability, is more customer-focused and is fundamentally stronger. In my first year, we declared a loss of over GBP 2 billion. Last year, we report a profit of over GBP 6 billion, so as I prepare to leave, there's a lot to be positive about.

這將是我卸任董事長之前該行發布的最後一份業績。除了今天早上公佈的全年業績之外，我們還宣布任命 Paul Thwaite 為我們的常任集團執行長。如你所知，里克·海索恩斯韋特（Rick Haythornthwaite）於去年 9 月被宣佈為我的繼任者。他於上個月初正式以非執行董事的身份加入集團董事會，並將於 4 月 15 日接替我擔任主席。他領導了我們新任執行長的任命過程。新領導團隊接手的銀行與我 2015 年加入時的銀行截然不同。在我任職的第一年，我們宣布虧損超過20億英鎊。去年，我們報告的利潤超過 60 億英鎊，因此，在我準備離職時，有很多事情值得樂觀。

The strong returns delivered in 2023 enabled us to make further significant capital distributions to our shareholders through dividends and buybacks. And as you'd expect, we're working closely with UKGI as they explore potential retail share offer, which would further help in returning the bank to private ownership. I'm personally pleased the succession process has been completed and we can look forward with an incoming Chair and a new CEO who have proven skills to support the group's continued progress and who I know care deeply about this business and its customers.

2023 年實現的強勁回報使我們能夠透過股利和回購向股東進一步進行大量資本分配。正如您所期望的，我們正在與 UKGI 密切合作，共同探索潛在的零售股票發行，這將進一步幫助該銀行恢復私有財產。我個人很高興繼任程序已經完成，我們可以期待新任董事長和新任首席執行官，他們擁有可證明的技能來支持集團的持續發展，而且我知道他們非常關心這項業務及其客戶。

So I'll now hand over to Paul and Katie for an update on the bank's performance. Thank you.

現在我將把時間交給保羅和凱蒂，來報告銀行的最新表現。謝謝。

Good morning, everyone. Naturally, I'm delighted to have been confirmed as the CEO of NatWest Group today and look forward to driving the very best performance we can for the benefit of our customers and shareholders. Our customers' needs and expectations are changing at pace as they engage with technology, adapt to new social trends and build ever more resilience in a fast-evolving world. Our priority is to deliver more value for customers, which in turn creates more value for shareholders. Over the last 6 months, the focus for me and my team has been on supporting customers as they manage the impact of inflation and a rapid rise in interest rates. This gives us an opportunity to be a trusted partner to customers at a time of ongoing change. And by doing so, we are shaping the future of NatWest to deliver its full potential.

大家早安。當然，我很高興今天被任命為 NatWest 集團的首席執行官，並期待為我們的客戶和股東帶來最好的業績。隨著客戶不斷接觸科技、適應新的社會趨勢並在快速發展的世界中增強適應力，他們的需求和期望也在快速變化。我們的首要任務是為客戶提供更多價值，進而為股東創造更多價值。在過去的六個月裡，我和我的團隊的工作重點是支持客戶應對通貨膨脹和利率快速上升的影響。這使我們有機會在不斷變化的時代成為客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴。透過這樣做，我們正在塑造 NatWest 的未來，以充分發揮其潛力。

So I'll start with the business update this morning. Katie will take you through the full year numbers. And then we'll open it up for questions.

因此，我將從今天上午的業務更新開始。凱蒂將帶您了解全年數據。然後我們會開始回答問題。

Since our performance is grounded in supporting our customers, I'd like to begin by putting the financial headlines in that context. In 2023, we increased our lending to customers by GBP 9 billion. We opened over 100,000 new start-up accounts for entrepreneurs and more than 1 million current accounts for individuals. We helped customers to save, with GBP 21 billion more fixed-term savings at the year-end, as well as to invest, growing assets under management and administration by GBP 7 billion. And we helped over 6 million customers manage their finances better with support such as financial health checks, understanding their credit scores and encouragement to save.

由於我們的業績是基於對客戶的支持，因此我想先將財經新聞放在這個背景下討論。 2023年，我們向客戶增加了90億英鎊的貸款。我們為創業家開設了超過10萬個新創業帳戶，為個人開設了超過100萬個活期帳戶。我們幫助客戶儲蓄，年末定期儲蓄增加了 210 億英鎊，並幫助客戶投資，管理和管理的資產增加了 70 億英鎊。我們透過財務健康檢查、了解他們的信用評分和鼓勵儲蓄等支援幫助超過 600 萬客戶更好地管理他們的財務。

We provided GBP 29 billion of climate and sustainable funding and financing, bringing the total to GBP 62 billion since July '21. So we are well on our way to achieving our GBP 100 billion target by the end of 2025. And we continue to support the growing renewable sector, where we have been a leading lender in the U.K. over the last 10 years. This customer activity underpins our strong financial performance.

我們提供了290億英鎊的氣候和永續資金和融資，自21年7月以來總額達到620億英鎊。因此，我們預計在 2025 年底實現 1000 億英鎊的目標。這些客戶活動支撐了我們強勁的財務表現。

We delivered operating profit before tax of GBP 6.2 billion, with attributable profit of GBP 4.4 billion. Income was up 10% at GBP 14.3 billion, with cost growth of 5% to GBP 7.6 billion. Taken together, this resulted in a return on tangible equity of 17.8%.

我們實現稅前營業利潤 62 億英鎊，應占利潤 44 億英鎊。營收成長 10%，達到 143 億英鎊，成本成長 5%，達到 76 億英鎊。整體而言，有形資產報酬率達到 17.8%。

We remain committed to generating capital in order to reinvest in the business and make shareholder distributions. Today, we're announcing a final dividend of 11.5p, bringing the total to 17p. This is in addition to a directed buyback of GBP 1.3 billion last May and the GBP 500 million on-market buyback announced in July which will complete this quarter. We are also announcing a new on-market buyback of GBP 300 million, which is included within our CET1 ratio of 13.4%. We expect this to complete by the end of July. This brings total distributions announced for the year to GBP 3.6 billion. These buybacks have supported a reduction in the government stake from 46% at the start of last year to under 35% today. You will also be aware of the government's intention to fully exit its NatWest Group shareholding by 2026, including a potential retail share offer.

我們仍然致力於創造資本，以便對業務進行再投資並進行股東分配。今天，我們宣布派發 11.5 便士的末期股息，總額達到 17 便士。除此之外，去年 5 月還進行了 13 億英鎊定向回購，並於 7 月宣布了 5 億英鎊場內回購計劃，回購金額將於本季完成。我們還宣布了新的 3 億英鎊市場回購計劃，這筆資金包含在我們的 13.4% 的 CET1 比率之內。我們預計這項工作將於七月底完成。這使得今年宣布的總分配額達到 36 億英鎊。這些回購支持了政府持股從去年年初的 46% 減少到今天的 35% 以下。您還將了解到政府打算在 2026 年前完全退出其在 NatWest Group 的持股，其中包括潛在的零售股票發行。

Our performance naturally reflects the rates environment in 2023, but our strong capital and risk management made an important contribution too. You can see this in the strength of our balance sheet. On the asset side, our personal lending is almost all secured, and our corporate book is well diversified. This disciplined approach is reflected in the low levels of impairment at 15 basis points of loans. On the liability side, our deposit base has remained broadly stable. Our loan-to-deposit ratio at the year-end was 84%. And our repayments due by 2025 on term funding for SMEs stand at just GBP 4 billion. This balance sheet strength and well-diversified funding underpins our ability to continue supporting customers through the economic cycle.

我們的表現自然反映了 2023 年的利率環境，但我們強大的資本和風險管理也做出了重要貢獻。您可以從我們的資產負債表中看出這一點。在資產方面，我們的個人貸款幾乎都是有擔保的，而且我們的公司貸款也十分多元化。這種嚴謹的做法體現在貸款減損水準較低（15 個基點）。負債方面，我們的存款基礎基本上保持穩定。本行年末貸存比為84%。到 2025 年，我們需要償還的中小企業定期融資金額僅為 40 億英鎊。強勁的資產負債表和多元化的融資支撐了我們在經濟週期中繼續為客戶提供支援的能力。

As you know, we were operating in a rapidly changing environment last year as persistent inflation led to interest rate rises of 175 basis points. As a result, individuals moved balances from noninterest-bearing accounts to fixed-term products. They also drew on savings to pay down debt in the face of cost-of-living pressures. And in 2023, for the first time in at least 30 years, U.K. households repaid as much mortgage debt as they drew. This change in customer behavior clearly had an impact on our income and net interest margin as the year progressed. However, inflation has fallen and market expectations for interest rates have come down, so our plan assumes that rates will reduce materially this year and next. These expectations have flowed through to customer rates for both mortgages and fixed-rate savings, which have decreased by over 100 basis points from the peak. This means we are seeing early signs of improving mortgage demand and deposit migration to higher-rate savings accounts has slowed, yet mortgage payments are likely to remain elevated this year as customers pay down debt before refinancing onto a higher rate. Business confidence is also improving, and our net lending to large U.K. corporates grew in 2023. However, overall demand from personal and business customers is currently muted. And together with the impact of lower interest rates, this will impact our 2024 income.

眾所周知，去年我們的經營環境瞬息萬變，持續的通貨膨脹導致利率上調了 175 個基點。結果，個人將餘額從無利息帳戶轉移到定期產品。面對生活成本的壓力，他們也動用儲蓄來償還債務。 2023 年，英國家庭償還的抵押貸款債務將與借入的抵押貸款債務相同，這在至少 30 年來尚屬首次。隨著時間的推移，客戶行為的這種變化顯然對我們的收入和淨利差產生了影響。然而，通膨已經下降，市場對利率的預期也下降，因此我們的計畫假設今年和明年利率將大幅下降。這些預期已經影響到抵押貸款和固定利率儲蓄的客戶利率，這些利率已從高峰下降了 100 多個基點。這意味著我們看到抵押貸款需求改善的早期跡象，存款向高利率儲蓄帳戶的轉移已經放緩，但由於客戶在以更高利率再融資之前償還債務，今年抵押貸款支付可能仍將保持高位。商業信心也在改善，我們對英國大型企業的淨貸款在 2023 年有所成長。再加上降低利率的影響，這將影響我們 2024 年的收入。

Household and corporate balance sheets remained strong. And the resilience of our customers is evident from our low level of impairments in 2023. We expect this to continue in 2024 despite a slight increase in unemployment. Of course, I recognize that heightened geopolitical uncertainty has potential implications for global trade and supply chain security, so whilst we expect inflation and rates to reduce, the timing and quantum of this is difficult to predict, and we remain vigilant.

家庭和企業資產負債表依然強勁。從我們 2023 年的低減損水準可以看出我們客戶的韌性。當然，我認識到地緣政治不確定性加劇對全球貿易和供應鏈安全有潛在影響，因此，雖然我們預計通膨和利率會下降，但時間和幅度很難預測，我們仍保持警惕。

A significant benefit of the scale and breadth of our customer base is that it gives us access to large flows of data. We are using these insights to understand and react to customer behavior as the environment evolves. We believe the strength of our customer franchise positions us well for 2024 and beyond. We serve 19 million customers, meeting a wide range of needs in our 3 businesses: Retail Banking, Private Banking, Commercial & Institutional. We have leading market positions and we also have a track record of growing share in attractive segments. For example, we now serve around 20% of both the youth segment and new startup businesses. So we're winning new customers and building for the future. I also know, from listening to existing customers, there is a clear opportunity to deepen these relationships by introducing more of our products and services alongside the expertise of our colleagues.

我們客戶群的規模和廣度的一個顯著優勢是，它使我們能夠存取大量資料流。我們正在利用這些見解來理解和應對環境變化時的客戶行為。我們相信，我們客戶特許經營的實力將使我們在 2024 年及以後佔據有利地位。我們為 1,900 萬客戶提供服務，滿足三大業務領域的廣泛需求：零售銀行、私人銀行、商業和機構銀行。我們擁有領先的市場地位，並且在有吸引力的領域也擁有不斷增長的份額。例如，我們現在為大約20％的青年群體和新創業企業提供服務。因此，我們正在贏得新客戶並為未來做好準備。我還知道，透過傾聽現有客戶的意見，我們可以明顯有機會透過推出更多我們的產品和服務以及同事的專業知識來加深這些關係。

By serving our customers well, we create value for all our stakeholders. We are targeting growth in areas with attractive returns, managing for value by striking a balance between volume and margin. There is also more we can do to improve productivity and cost efficiency. We have a strong record on cost reduction and we'll direct our investment spend to areas that deliver savings to mitigate ongoing inflation. We're also actively shaping our balance sheet and deploying capital thoughtfully, which is helping to manage regulatory change. This discipline on both cost and capital will allow us to continue investing in the business and making attractive distributions to shareholders. Between 2021 and 2023 returns to shareholders totaled GBP 12.5 billion, and a 28% reduction in share count led to higher earnings per share.

透過良好的服務我們的客戶，我們為所有利害關係人創造價值。我們的目標是在回報豐厚的領域實現成長，透過在數量和利潤之間取得平衡來管理價值。我們還可以做更多的事情來提高生產力和成本效率。我們在降低成本方面有著良好的記錄，我們將把投資支出引導到可以節省成本的領域，以緩解持續的通貨膨脹。我們也積極地塑造我們的資產負債表並精心部署資本，這有助於管理監管變化。這種對成本和資本的約束將使我們能夠繼續投資於業務並向股東提供有吸引力的分配。 2021 年至 2023 年間，股東回報總計 125 億英鎊，股份數減少 28% 導致每股盈餘增加。

Against this backdrop, we have 3 key priorities all focused on driving returns. Our first priority is to continue growing our 3 customer businesses in a disciplined way, building on our strong market positions, so let me share some examples. We brought commercial and institutional banking together to deliver greater value for customers and the bank. And we are now able to serve the needs of a much wider range of customers in foreign exchange rates and capital markets. Over 1,500 of our mid-market commercial customers have now signed up for our foreign exchange services.

在此背景下，我們有三大主要任務，均致力於推動回報。我們的首要任務是繼續以規範的方式發展我們的 3 個客戶業務，鞏固我們強大的市場地位，所以讓我分享一些例子。我們將商業銀行和機構銀行業務整合在一起，為客戶和銀行提供更大的價值。現在我們能夠滿足外匯匯率和資本市場中更廣泛客戶的需求。目前，已有超過 1,500 家中型商業客戶註冊了我們的外匯服務。

Our leading mid-market business has an extensive network of specialist relationship managers across the U.K., which gives us a significant competitive advantage of scale and reach. This segment delivers attractive returns and we see this as an area of further growth. In Retail Banking, we have grown our share to become the second largest mortgage provider in the U.K. Our mortgage business is well positioned, following significant multiyear investment with strong through-the-cycle returns. It is highly digitized and scalable and a driver of efficient growth when market demand and pricing are right.

我們領先的中型市場業務在英國擁有廣泛的專業關係經理網絡，這使我們在規模和影響力方面具有顯著的競爭優勢。這部分提供了可觀的回報，我們認為這是一個進一步成長的領域。在零售銀行業務方面，我們的份額不斷擴大，已成為英國第二大抵押貸款提供者。它高度數位化、可擴展，當市場需求和定價合適時，它就能成為高效率成長的動力。

Our second priority is to drive bank-wide simplification. There is a lot more we can do to make it easier for our customers to do business with us, to improve engagement and productivity for our colleagues and to drive significant efficiencies and operating leverage. Since 2021, we have delivered run rate savings of around GBP 250 million a year through digitizing customer journeys, so we continue to simplify journeys across the bank in order to improve customer experience and deliver further savings.

我們的第二個任務是推動全銀行的簡化。我們還可以做更多的事情，使我們的客戶能夠更輕鬆地與我們開展業務，提高同事的參與度和生產力，並顯著提高效率和營運槓桿。自 2021 年以來，我們透過數位化客戶旅程實現了每年約 2.5 億英鎊的營運成本節省，因此我們將繼續簡化整個銀行的旅程，以改善客戶體驗並進一步節省成本。

We are streamlining systems and processes. For example, in our retail bank, we are integrating 5 legacy front-office systems into one digital platform to give us a single view of the customer. This has enabled us to spend more time with our customers and improve the quality of our interactions. We are also using artificial intelligence and data to improve productivity, and we have seen some very encouraging results from recent pilots. We've reduced scam losses, freed up time to focus on customer relationships and identified ways to reduce our complaints resolution time. This is a significant opportunity as we roll it out across the bank.

我們正在簡化系統和流程。例如，在我們的零售銀行，我們將 5 個傳統前台系統整合到一個數位平台中，以便我們可以單一地查看客戶。這使我們能夠花更多時間與客戶相處，並提高互動品質。我們也正在使用人工智慧和數據來提高生產力，最近的試點已經取得了一些非常令人鼓舞的成果。我們減少了詐騙損失，騰出時間專注於客戶關係，並找到了減少投訴解決時間的方法。當我們在整個銀行推行這項措施時，這是一個重要的機會。

Our third key priority is to deploy capital efficiently and maintain strong risk management in order to drive capital generation. Our exit from the republic of Ireland is now largely complete, and we received a further EUR 300 million dividend in the fourth quarter. 2023 was also the year we delivered on our CET1 ratio target of 13% to 14%, but we can do more to optimize capital allocation. This means working dynamically to capture attractive growth opportunities and being very disciplined at origination. We will also address RWA efficiency on the back book, for example, through greater use of insurance or risk transfer, where we are less active than some of our peers.

我們的第三個重點是有效部署資本並維持強有力的風險管理，以推動資本創造。我們從愛爾蘭共和國的退出目前已基本完成，並且在第四季度我們又獲得了 3 億歐元的股息。 2023 年也是我們實現 CET1 比率 13% 至 14% 目標的一年，但我們可以做更多工作來優化資本配置。這意味著要積極努力地抓住有吸引力的成長機會，並在開始時保持高度自律。我們還將解決帳簿上的 RWA 效率問題，例如透過更多地使用保險或風險轉移，而在這方面我們的積極性不如一些同行。

So as you can see, we are very focused on the levers that we can control, but the macroeconomic environment, coupled with an expected reduction in interest rates and changes in customer behavior, means that we are adjusting our target for return on tangible equity. We now expect to deliver greater than 13% in 2026, whilst operating with a CET1 ratio of 13% to 14%. We are committed to delivering value for shareholders, so we maintain our payout ratio of around 40% for ordinary dividends, with the capacity for buybacks.

所以正如你所看到的，我們非常關注我們可以控制的槓桿，但宏觀經濟環境，加上預期的利率下降和客戶行為的變化，意味著我們正在調整有形資產回報率的目標。我們目前預計 2026 年的獲利率將超過 13%，同時 CET1 比率將達到 13% 至 14%。我們致力於為股東創造價值，因此我們將普通股利的派息率維持在 40% 左右，並具有回購能力。

And with that, I'll hand over to Katie to take you through the full year numbers in more detail.

接下來，我將交給凱蒂，讓她向大家更詳細地介紹全年數據。

Thank you, Paul. I'll start with discussing our strong performance for the year. Income excluding all notable items was GBP 14.3 billion, up 9.8% and in line with the guidance we gave last quarter. Operating expenses rose 4% to GBP 8 billion, including GBP 7.6 billion of other operating expenses. Together, this contributed to a cost-to-income ratio below 52%. The impairment charge was GBP 578 million or 15 basis points of loans.

謝謝你，保羅。我首先要討論我們今年的強勁表現。扣除所有重要項目的收入為 143 億英鎊，成長 9.8%，與我們上季度給出的預期一致。營業費用上漲 4% 至 80 億英鎊，其中包括 76 億英鎊的其他營業費用。總體而言，這導致成本收入比低於 52%。減損費用為5.78億英鎊，或貸款的15個基點。

Taking all of this together, we delivered operating profit before tax of GBP 6.2 billion. And profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was GBP 4.4 billion. And return on tangible equity was 17.8%, ahead of guidance, in part due to the recognition of historic tax losses.

綜合上述因素，我們實現了 62 億英鎊的稅前營業利潤。歸屬於普通股股東的獲利為44億英鎊。有形資產回報率為 17.8%，高於預期，部分原因是確認了歷史稅收損失。

Turning now to the fourth quarter compared to the third. Income excluding all notable items was GBP 3.4 billion, down 2%. Operating expenses were GBP 2.2 billion, including the annual U.K. bank levy. The impairment charge decreased to GBP 126 million or 13 basis points of loans, bringing operating profit before tax to GBP 1.3 billion. Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was GBP 1.2 billion, including a deferred tax asset recognition. And return on tangible equity was 20.1%.

現在來看看第四季與第三季的比較。扣除所有重要項目的收入為 34 億英鎊，下降 2%。營業費用為 22 億英鎊，其中包括年度英國銀行稅。減損費用減少至 1.26 億英鎊或貸款的 13 個基點，使稅前營業利潤達到 13 億英鎊。歸屬於普通股股東的利潤為12億英鎊，其中包括遞延稅務資產確認。有形資產報酬率為20.1%。

I'd like to now talk about key performance trends across our 3 businesses on Slide 12. We have delivered strong returns across our 3 businesses in both 2022 and 2023.

現在，我想在第 12 張投影片上談談我們三項業務的關鍵業績趨勢。

Retail Banking continued to be our highest-returning business in 2023 with good income growth. However, this was offset by higher costs and an increase in impairments, which impacted the return on equity, reducing it to 23.8%. Private Banking return on equity was 14.8% and was affected by lower deposit balances and mix changes as well as cost inflation. Our Commercial & Institutional business delivered the strongest year-on-year improvement, growing income by 16% and operating profit by 27%. It is now the largest profit engine of the group, delivering GBP 3.2 billion or 52% of group operating profit, equivalent to a return on equity of 15.4%.

2023 年，零售銀行繼續成為我們回報最高的業務，收入成長良好。然而，這被更高的成本和增加的減損所抵消，影響了股本回報率，將其降至 23.8%。私人銀行的股本回報率為14.8%，受到存款餘額減少和結構變化以及成本上漲的影響。我們的商業及機構業務較去年同期成長最為強勁，營收成長 16%，營業利潤成長 27%。目前，它已成為集團最大的利潤引擎，創造了32億英鎊的利潤，佔集團營業利潤的52%，相當於股本回報率15.4%。

Our business diversification enabled us to deliver a strong group performance whilst responding to a broad range of customer behaviors and market dynamics.

我們的業務多元化使我們能夠提供強勁的集團業績，同時響應廣泛的客戶行為和市場動態。

Turning now to our 2023 income performance on Slide 13. Full year income excluding notable items was GBP 14.3 billion. And bank net interest margin was 304 basis points. Net interest income was 12.1% higher, benefiting from favorable yield curve movements, partially offset by the change in deposit volume and mix. Noninterest income excluding notable items grew 2.5%, supported by increased customer activity and higher income from the markets business.

現在來看看第 13 張投影片上的 2023 年收入表現。而銀行淨利差為304個基點。淨利息收入成長 12.1％，受益於有利的收益率曲線變動，但被存款量和結構的變化部分抵消。扣除重要項目的非利息收入成長了 2.5%，這得益於客戶活動增加和市場業務收入增加。

Turning to the fourth quarter. Underlying net interest income was GBP 2.7 billion, broadly stable versus the third quarter. Noninterest income fell 6.9%, reflecting seasonally lower trading and other income. Bank net interest margin reduced by 8 basis points to 286, which includes a 3 basis point drag from notable items. As expected, the rate of margin compression was slower than in the third quarter. Going forward, we will report group net interest margin which presents statutory group net interest income as a proportion of all average interest-earning assets. We see this as the most useful measure of how we are managing spreads between our interest-earning assets, including the liquid asset buffer, and our interest-bearing liabilities. Bank NIM is a less relevant measure now that interest rates are above 0.

展望第四季。基本淨利息收入為 27 億英鎊，與第三季基本穩定。非利息收入下降 6.9%，反映出季節性交易和其他收入的下降。銀行淨利差下降8個基點至286，其中包括受顯著項目拖累的3個基點。如預期，利潤率壓縮的速度比第三季慢。展望未來，我們將報告集團淨利差，該息差反映的是法定集團淨利息收入佔所有平均生息資產的比例。我們認為這是衡量我們如何管理生息資產（包括流動資產緩衝）和計息負債之間的利差的最有用的指標。現在利率高於 0，銀行淨利差就不再是重要的衡量指標。

Full year group net interest margin increased 31 basis points year-on-year to 212 as a result of higher deposit margins, net of pass-through and mix changes and lower mortgage margins. Group NIM in the fourth quarter was 199 basis points, reflecting a gross yield on interest-earning assets of 450 basis points and 251 basis points cost of funding.

由於存款保證金增加（扣除轉嫁及組合變化）以及抵押貸款保證金減少，全年集團淨利差較去年同期增加 31 個基點至 212。第四季集團淨利差為199個基點，反映生息資產總收益率為450個基點，融資成本為251個基點。

I'd like to move on now to our disciplined approach to lending growth on Slide 14. We are pleased to have delivered another year of balanced lending growth across the group. Gross loans to customers across our 3 businesses increased 2.6% or GBP 9.1 billion to GBP 359 billion.

現在，我想轉到幻燈片 14 上的我們嚴謹的貸款成長方法。我們三項業務的客戶總貸款增加了 2.6% 或 91 億英鎊，達到 3,590 億英鎊。

During the first half, we delivered strong mortgage growth, whereas in the second half, we delivered strong corporate loan growth as we took a disciplined approach to capital allocation in a competitive and dynamic market. During the fourth quarter, customer loans across our 3 businesses increased by GBP 1.1 billion. Taking Retail Banking together with Private Banking, mortgage balances reduced by GBP 500 million, as customer repayments offset new lending. Mortgage flow share for the full year was 14% or GBP 31.2 billion. However, this flow share reduced to 10.5% in the fourth quarter as we managed the balance sheet in a smaller, more competitive market. Our stock share increased from 12.3% at the start of the year to 12.7% at the end. Unsecured balances increased by a further GBP 300 million in the quarter to GBP 15.8 billion, reflecting strong demand for credit cards.

上半年，我們實現了強勁的抵押貸款成長；下半年，由於我們在競爭激烈、充滿活力的市場中採取了嚴謹的資本配置方式，我們實現了強勁的企業貸款成長。第四季度，我們三家企業的客戶貸款增加了11億英鎊。將零售銀行業務與私人銀行業務結合起來，抵押貸款餘額減少了 5 億英鎊，因為客戶還款抵消了新貸款。全年抵押貸款流量份額為 14% 即 312 億英鎊。然而，由於我們在規模較小、競爭更激烈的市場中管理資產負債表，這一流量份額在第四季度下降至 10.5%。我們的股票份額從年初的12.3%增加到年底的12.7%。本季無擔保餘額進一步增加了 3 億英鎊，達到 158 億英鎊，反映出對信用卡的強勁需求。

In Commercial & Institutional, gross customer loans increased by GBP 1.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Within this, loans to corporate and institutions increased by GBP 2.2 billion, including higher revolving credit facility drawdowns, where utilization was close to pre-COVID levels at 25%. This growth was partly offset by companies continuing to pay down government scheme borrowing. Across 2023, our C&I customers have accessed bank loans for house building, acquiring vehicles and managing working capital. We have deepened relationships with our large corporate and financial institutions by providing increased lending, cash management and foreign exchange services.

在商業和機構銀行方面，第四季總客戶貸款增加了 14 億英鎊。其中，對企業和機構的貸款增加了 22 億英鎊，包括更高的循環信貸額度提取，其使用率接近新冠疫情之前的水平，為 25%。但企業繼續償還政府計劃借款在一定程度上抵消了這一成長。 2023 年，我們的 C&I 客戶已獲得銀行貸款，用於建造房屋、購買車輛和管理營運資金。我們透過提供更多的貸款、現金管理和外匯服務，加深了與大型企業和金融機構的關係。

I'll turn now to deposits on Slide 15. Customer deposits across our 3 businesses were GBP 419 billion at the year-end, broadly in line with the first quarter as expected. A reduction in the fourth quarter was primarily driven by our larger Corporate & Institutional customers as we managed down low-value deposits and as a result of normal year-end balance sheet management. Across Retail and Private Banking, deposits grew by GBP 4 billion in the quarter, mainly in term savings.

現在我來談談幻燈片 15 上的存款。第四季的減少主要是由於我們較大的企業和機構客戶，因為我們減少了低價值存款，並且是正常的年終資產負債表管理的結果。在零售銀行和私人銀行業務中，本季存款增加了 40 億英鎊，主要是定期儲蓄。

The migration from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits slowed during the fourth quarter. Noninterest-bearing balances were 34% of the total, down from 35% at the end of the third quarter and 40% at the start of the year. However, customers did continue to move balances to term accounts, which now represent 16% of our total deposit mix. This was slightly lower than our expectations as a result of active management in December yet up from 15% at the end of the third quarter and 6% at the start of the year.

第四季度，從無息存款到有息存款的轉變有所放緩。非利息餘額佔總餘額的 34%，低於第三季末的 35% 和年初的 40%。然而，客戶確實繼續將餘額轉移到定期帳戶，目前定期帳戶占我們總存款組合的 16%。由於 12 月採取了積極管理措施，這一數字略低於我們的預期，但高於第三季末的 15% 和年初的 6%。

I'd like to turn to the drivers of deposit income on Slide 16. Deposit income was the key driver of group income in 2023, so it's important to consider how the component parts of our deposit base may evolve and impact income in 2024. During 2023, deposits across our 3 businesses reduced by GBP 14 billion, the majority of which was in the first quarter. Our noninterest-bearing deposits reduced to GBP 142 billion. And term deposits increased to GBP 68 million. As the deposit mix changed, so did the proportion of hedged and unhedged deposits.

我想在第 16 張投影片上談談存款收入的驅動因素。我們的無息存款減少至 1,420 億英鎊。定期存款增加至 6800 萬英鎊。隨著存款結構的變化，對沖存款和非對沖存款的比例也發生了變化。

Starting with term deposits, where we lock in the margin at origination. Given the strong growth in a competitive market, these are some of our tightest deposit margins. Overall, we expect term deposit income to grow moderately in 2024 due to higher average balances. Our unhedged deposits reduced to around GBP 166 billion at the year-end, and they earned the widest margins. These are managed rate deposits and this is where we expect to see the most significant income reduction as the base rate reduces.

從定期存款開始，我們在發起時鎖定保證金。鑑於競爭激烈的市場中的強勁成長，這是我們最嚴格的存款保證金標準之一。整體而言，由於平均餘額較高，我們預計 2024 年定期存款收入將適度成長。我們的非對沖存款在年底減少到1660億英鎊左右，並獲得了最高的利潤。這些是管理利率存款，隨著基準利率的降低，我們預期這類存款的收入將出現最顯著的減少。

Turning now to the product structural hedge. The notional balance at the end of 2023 was GBP 185 billion, down GBP 23 billion from the start of the year. We expect this to reduce further in 2024, reflecting the reduction in eligible balances during 2023. We expect the yield to increase from 152 basis points in the fourth quarter through reinvestment of maturities at the prevailing 5-year swap rate. This will more than compensate for the notional reduction, supporting higher structural hedge income in 2024, with more meaningful growth in 2025 and 2026 as eligible balances stabilize.

現在來談談產品結構避險。 2023年底名目餘額為1850億英鎊，較年初減少230億英鎊。我們預計這一數字將在 2024 年進一步下降，反映出 2023 年合格餘額的減少。這將足以彌補名義上的減少，支持 2024 年更高的結構性對沖收入，隨著合格餘額的穩定，2025 年和 2026 年將實現更有意義的成長。

Let me explain how this feeds into our rate sensitivity disclosures on Slide 17. The change in deposit mix contributed to a significant increase in the costs of our deposit funding from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 2% in the fourth quarter of 2023. This moderated in the fourth quarter with an increase of 20 basis points compared to 60 basis points in the third as customer rates stabilized and migration to higher-interest-paying accounts slowed. Lower deposit balances, mix changes and our 12-month look-back approach to the structural hedge means our balance sheet has become less rate sensitive in absolute terms.

讓我解釋一下這對幻燈片 17 上的利率敏感性披露有何影響。較低的存款餘額、組合變化以及我們對結構性對沖的 12 個月回顧方法意味著我們的資產負債表在絕對意義上對利率的敏感度降低。

The chart on the right is our illustrative interest rate sensitivity disclosure. It shows the year 1 impact on net interest earnings for a 25 basis point downward shift in the yield curve. This illustrative disclosure naturally has limitations, not least because it assumes a static balance sheet and a parallel shift in the yield curve, but it helps explain how our income is affected by change in interest rates both in relation to the structural hedge and the managed margin. The managed margin is the most relevant sensitivity for changes in the base rate and deposit pass-through. Based on our year-end balance sheet, a 25 basis point downward shift would reduce annual income by GBP 125 million. This is mainly driven by our unhedged deposit balances of GBP 166 billion at the year-end. It assumes a pass-through of around 60% on our instant-access savings of GBP 209 billion at the year-end, with minimal timing lag.

右側的圖表是我們對利率敏感度揭露的說明。它顯示了殖利率曲線向下移動25個基點對第一年淨利息收入的影響。這種說明性揭露自然有其局限性，尤其是因為它假設資產負債表是靜態且殖利率曲線平行移動，但它有助於解釋我們的收入如何受到與結構性對沖和管理保證金相關的利率變化的影響。管理保證金對基準利率和存款轉出變化具有最密切的敏感度。根據我們的年終資產負債表，下調 25 個基點將導致年收入減少 1.25 億英鎊。這主要得益於我們年末1,660億英鎊的未對沖存款餘額。它假設到年底我們的即時訪問儲蓄 2090 億英鎊將實現約 60% 的轉嫁，並且時間滯後最小。

As you think about our income progression through 2024, you should consider: first, the quantum of pass-through to customer deposit rates; and second, the associated timing lags, including the contractual notice periods. We continue to actively manage our deposits, aware that there is uncertainty on both the timing of rate cuts, competition and how our customers will behave.

當您考慮我們到 2024 年的收入成長時，您應該考慮：首先，轉嫁給客戶存款利率的量；第二，相關的時間滯後，包括合約通知期。我們繼續積極管理我們的存款，同時意識到降息時機、競爭以及客戶行為都存在不確定性。

Turning to Slide 18. As you have heard, interest rate changes associated pass-through and the second-order impacts on customer behavior are the key considerations when we think about income in 2024, and they remain difficult to predict. So to summarize, the 4 key income drivers today are: first, our plan assumes the Bank of England will start to reduce rates from May, reaching 4% by the end of 2024. We assume this will be reasonably spread out and in 25 basis point increments, though actual outcome will be different. We expect to pass-through changes in interest rates to our customers' deposit rates, but the quantum and timing is subject to competition as well as contractual terms and conditions.

轉到投影片 18。總而言之，今天的 4 個關鍵收入驅動因素是：首先，我們的計劃假設英格蘭銀行將從 5 月開始降低利率，到 2024 年底達到 4%。我們預期利率變動將傳導至客戶的存款利率，但具體金額和時間取決於競爭以及合約條款與條件。

The second driver is deposit volumes and mix. Overall, we expect deposit balances to follow a similar pattern to 2023, reducing in the first quarter due to annual tax payments and then some recovery after that, subject to market dynamics. We anticipate less change in deposit mix than we experienced in 2023. Third, we expect the hedge to deliver a tailwind in 2024 despite a reducing hedge notional and for the strength of this tailwind to increase into '25 and '26 as volumes stabilize.

第二個驅動因素是存款量和結構。總體而言，我們預計存款餘額將遵循與 2023 年類似的模式，由於年度納稅，第一季存款餘額將減少，之後將根據市場動態有所回升。我們預計存款組合的變化將比 2023 年要小。

And then finally, on the asset side, we experienced significant mortgage margin pressure in 2023 as our mortgage customers refinanced onto higher rates at a tighter margin. This headwind continues to moderate. And we expect the mortgage book margin to stabilize around the middle of 2024, although this is dependent on market dynamics. Taking all of this together, we expect 2024 income excluding notable items to be in the range of GBP 13 billion to GBP 13.5 billion.

最後，在資產方面，由於我們的抵押貸款客戶以更窄的利潤率向更高的利率進行再融資，我們在 2023 年經歷了巨大的抵押貸款利潤率壓力。這股逆風正在持續減弱。我們預計抵押貸款帳面利潤率將在 2024 年中期左右穩定下來，儘管這取決於市場動態。綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們預計 2024 年不包括顯著項目的收入將在 130 億英鎊至 135 億英鎊之間。

Turning now to costs on Slide 19. Other operating expenses were GBP 7.6 billion for 2023, in line with our guidance. That's up 4.6% on the prior year mainly due to staff costs, which are almost half of our cost base. This includes the average annual wage increase of 6.4% and a one-off payment in January last year to support colleagues with the rising cost of living. We also faced cost inflation on utilities and other contracts. Our ongoing investment in technology is reflected in higher depreciation and amortization costs. In 2024, we expect to hold other operating expenses broadly stable.

現在談談幻燈片 19 上的成本。這比去年增加了 4.6%，主要原因是員工成本，這幾乎佔了我們成本基礎的一半。其中包括每年平均6.4%的薪資成長，以及去年1月的一次性付款，以支持同事應對不斷上漲的生活成本。我們也面臨公用事業和其他合約的成本上漲。我們對科技的持續投資反映在更高的折舊和攤提成本。 2024 年，我們預計其他營運費用將保持大致穩定。

You'll see that our fourth quarter costs, excluding Ulster and the bank levy, are annualizing at around GBP 7.5 billion, including the inflation embedded into our cost base during the year. We expect to incur around GBP 100 million of Ulster direct costs and around GBP 100 million for the bank levy, which brings annual run rate costs to around GBP 7.7 billion. In order to keep costs broadly stable from here, we will continue our strong track record of mitigating inflation by making cost savings.

您會發現，我們第四季的成本（不包括阿爾斯特稅和銀行稅）年化約為 75 億英鎊，其中包括當年計入成本基礎的通貨膨脹。我們預計將產生約 1 億英鎊的阿爾斯特直接成本和約 1 億英鎊的銀行稅，這使年度運行成本達到約 77 億英鎊。為了未來保持成本大致穩定，我們將繼續保持透過節省成本來緩解通貨膨脹的良好記錄。

I'd like to turn now to Slide 20. We have a well-diversified prime loan book that is performing well. Over half of our group lending consists of mortgages, with an average loan-to-value of 55%; and around 70% on new business. Our customers continue to take advantage of the best possible rate in the 6-month window before roll-off. And recent behavior has shown an increased preference for 2-year deals. We monitor the impact of higher rates on customers closely after they refinance, and whilst arrears have increased slightly, they still remain low.

現在我想翻到第 20 張投影片。我們團體貸款的一半以上是抵押貸款，平均貸款成數為 55%；約70%用於新業務。我們的客戶可在延期之前的 6 個月內繼續享受最優惠的利率。最近的行為表明，人們越來越傾向於簽訂兩年合約。我們密切監控利率調高對客戶再融資的影響，雖然欠款金額略有增加，但仍維持在較低水準。

Our personal unsecured lending is less than 4% of group lending and is performing in line with expectations and good-quality new business.

我們的個人無抵押貸款佔團體貸款的比例不到4%，且表現符合預期，新業務品質良好。

Across our wholesale portfolios, our corporate book and other exposures such as commercial real estate, remain well diversified and are still performing well. And we are not in scope for the FCA review into motor finance.

在我們的批發投資組合中，我們的公司帳簿和商業房地產等其他投資仍然保持著良好的多樣化，並且表現良好。而且我們不在FCA汽車金融審查範圍。

Let's move to impairments and our economic scenarios on Slide 21. We have reviewed and updated our economic scenarios, both forecasts and relative weightings. Our weighted average expectations for GDP are slightly improved in 2024, with a small decline in 2025. We also anticipate a slight deterioration in levels of employment in both '24 and '25. Our balance sheet provision for expected credit loss includes GBP 429 million of post-model adjustments for economic uncertainty. We remain comfortable with 93 basis points of coverage of the book, which continues to perform well.

讓我們轉到投影片 21 上的減損和經濟情景。我們對 GDP 的加權平均預期在 2024 年略有改善，在 2025 年則略有下降。我們的資產負債表預期信用損失準備金包括4.29億英鎊的經濟不確定性模型後調整。我們對該帳簿的覆蓋率為 93 個基點感到滿意，該帳簿繼續表現良好。

We reported a net impairment charge of GBP 578 million for the full year, equivalent to 15 basis points of loans. The current performance of the book, combined with our updated economic outlook, means we are expecting a low impairment rate below 20 basis points in 2024.

我們報告全年淨減損費用為 5.78 億英鎊，相當於貸款的 15 個基點。目前帳面表現加上我們最新的經濟展望意味著我們預期 2024 年的減損率將低於 20 個基點。

Turning now to look at capital and risk-weighted assets on Slide 22. We ended the fourth quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.4%. In 2023, we generated 154 basis points of capital before the impact of nonrecurring notable items and RWA model updates totaling 43 basis points. This net capital generation was offset by distributions to shareholders equivalent to 195 basis points.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 22 上的資本和風險加權資產。 2023 年，我們在非經常性重大項目和 RWA 模型更新的影響之前產生了 154 個基點的資本，總計 43 個基點。此淨資本產生被向股東分配的相當於 195 個基點的利潤所抵銷。

RWAs increased by GBP 6.9 billion in the year to GBP 183 billion. This includes a GBP 7.9 billion increase from business movements; and a further GBP 3 billion of model updates, which includes the CRD IV regulatory inflation we discussed in Q3. This was partly offset by a GBP 4 billion reduction as a result of our phased withdrawal from the republic of Ireland. We continue to expect RWAs to be around GBP 200 billion at the end of 2025, including the impact of Basel 3.1 and further CRD IV model development. This is subject to final rules on credit and output floors which we expect later this year, as well, of course, as regulatory approval. As is our practice, we will continue to update you on development of RWAs.

今年風險加權資產增加了 69 億英鎊，達到 1,830 億英鎊。其中包括來自商業流動的79億英鎊的成長；以及另外 30 億英鎊的模型更新，其中包括我們在第三季討論的 CRD IV 監管通膨。由於我們分階段撤出愛爾蘭共和國，因此減少了 40 億英鎊，從而部分抵消了這一影響。我們繼續預計，到 2025 年底，風險加權資產將達到 2000 億英鎊左右，其中包括巴塞爾協議 3.1 和進一步的 CRD IV 模型開發的影響。這取決於信貸和產出底線的最終規則，我們預計這些規則將在今年稍後出台，當然，也需要獲得監管部門的批准。按照我們的慣例，我們將繼續向您通報 RWA 的發展。

Turning now to our track record on delivering for shareholders, on Slide 23. Our capital generation has enabled us to support our customers in difficult times as well as invest for growth and make shareholder distributions of almost GBP 12.5 billion over the last 3 years. Our improving profitability has supported increases in the total ordinary dividend in 2023. Combined with our multiyear buyback programs, this has delivered a significant improvement in the dividend per share of 17p, up 3.5p year-on-year.

現在來看看我們為股東提供的服務記錄（第 23 頁）。我們不斷提高的盈利能力支持了 2023 年普通股息總額的增加。

Our share count has reduced by 28% since the end of 2020 or 30% pro forma for the GBP 300 million buyback we announced today. We remain committed to returning surplus capital to shareholders, as demonstrated by our strong track record.

自 2020 年底以來，我們的股票數量減少了 28%，或者說，對於我們今天宣布的 3 億英鎊回購計畫而言，預計減少了 30%。我們依然致力於向股東返還剩餘資本，這從我們良好的業績記錄中可見一斑。

Turning to guidance on my final slide. In 2024, we expect income excluding notable items to be in the range of GBP 13 billion to GBP 13.5 billion. Group operating costs, excluding litigation and conduct, to be broadly stable versus 2023, and the loan impairment rate to be below 20 basis points, delivering a return on tangible equity of around 12%.

轉到我最後一張投影片的指導。 2024 年，我們預計不包括重大項目的收入將在 130 億英鎊至 135 億英鎊之間。集團營運成本（不包括訴訟和行為）與 2023 年相比基本保持穩定，貸款減損率低於 20 個基點，有形股本回報率約為 12%。

And with that, I'll hand back to Paul.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交還給保羅。

Thank you, Katie. So to conclude. Our priority is to continue supporting our customers in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. We are pursuing opportunities for targeted growth across our businesses, with a focus on returns as we strike a balance between volume and margin. By combining this disciplined approach to growth with tight cost control and efficient capital allocation, we plan to drive strong capital generation so that we can both reinvest in the business and continue making attractive distributions to shareholders. With a payout ratio of around 40% and capacity for buybacks, we remain fully committed to creating sustainable long-term value for shareholders.

謝謝你，凱蒂。總結一下。我們的首要任務是在不確定的宏觀經濟環境中繼續為客戶提供支援。我們正在整個業務中尋求有針對性的成長機會，並在註重回報的同時實現產量和利潤之間的平衡。透過將這種嚴謹的成長方式與嚴格的成本控制和高效的資本配置相結合，我們計劃推動強勁的資本創造，以便我們既可以對業務進行再投資，又可以繼續向股東提供有吸引力的分配。我們的派息率約為 40%，且具有回購能力，我們將繼續致力於為股東創造可持續的長期價值。

Thank you. I will now hand back to the operator.

謝謝。我現在將麥克風交還給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes in from Aman Rakkar of Barclays. Aman, please unmute and ask your question.

(操作員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Aman Rakkar。阿曼，請取消靜音並提出您的問題。

First of all, congratulations, Paul, on the appointment. And I wanted to just pay my regards to Howard, on your tenure at the firm.

首先，恭喜保羅獲得任命。我只是想向霍華德表示敬意，祝賀你在公司任職期間的成就。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I had a couple of questions. One, I think it's the main question that I'm getting this morning is around your revenue guide for '24. And obviously, at face value, there is a pretty material kind of step off in the revenue run rate through '24. And there's clearly some downside versus consensus, but I guess, to push back against that, it doesn't really feel that surprising to see you come out with a revenue number that's that low. I think the uncertainty that's faced by rate cuts, competition, various bits and pieces. I think it kind of makes sense, but can you help kind of elaborate on exactly a bit more on the moving parts there and whether you recognize the conservatism here? And indeed I'm sure you won't answer this, but I'll ask you anyway. But if I was to look at the spot rate market right now, it is not implying base rate of 4% at year-end. It's implying something more like 4.4% at the end of the year. I know these things are volatile, but I don't think we're going to get the rate cuts predicated on the current forward curve that you guys are basing your guidance on, so this does look to me to be quite a conservative revenue guide for '24. I'd really be interested in your thoughts, any help there. I had a second question. Shall I give it to you now or afterwards?

我有幾個問題。首先，我認為我今天早上遇到的主要問題是關於你們 2024 年的收入指南。顯然，從表面上看，到 2024 年，收入運行率將有相當大的下降。與普遍預期相比，這顯然存在一些不利因素，但我想，與此相反，得出如此低的收入數字並不令人感到驚訝。我認為面臨的不確定性包括降息、競爭等各種因素。我認為這是有道理的，但你能否詳細說明其中的變化部分，以及你是否認識到其中的保守主義？事實上，我確信你不會回答這個問題，但我還是會問你。但如果我現在看一下現貨匯率市場，它並不意味著年底的基準利率為 4%。這意味著年底的成長率將達到 4.4% 左右。我知道這些事情都是不穩定的，但我不認為我們會根據你們所依據的當前遠期曲線來獲得降息，所以在我看來，這確實是 24 年相當保守的收入指南。我真的很想知道你的想法，希望你能提供一些幫助。我還有第二個問題。我現在給你還是稍後給你？

Keep going, Aman.

繼續吧，阿曼。

Go for it, Aman...

加油，阿曼…

Just in terms of distributions. I was interested in -- obviously it's great to see the GBP 300 million open-market buyback. The retail share offering that the government is looking to kind of execute this summer, I'm interested in how this influences your thinking at all. It doesn't look to me like you've budgeted for a directed buyback in May. Maybe you're confident on capital generation in the coming quarters, which would be a good thing, but retail share offering might mean that there's less likelihood of a directed buyback. And then hence, do you then feel as though you can kind of execute open-market buybacks more regularly? Again anything you can give us on your updated approach to distribution is really helpful.

僅就分佈而言。我很感興趣——顯然，看到 3 億英鎊的公開市場回購是件好事。政府希望在今年夏天實施零售股票發行，我感興趣的是這會對您的想法產生什麼影響。在我看來，您似乎沒有為五月的定向回購制定預算。也許您對未來幾季的資本創造充滿信心，這將是一件好事，但零售股票發行可能意味著定向回購的可能性較小。那麼，您是否覺得您可以更定期地執行公開市場回購？再次強調，您向我們提供的任何有關最新分銷方法的資訊都非常有幫助。

Thanks, Aman. I'll take number two and number three. And then Katie will allow you to talk through the revenue guide. So on -- Aman, on directed buyback, simple answer is it is in our plans and our bridges. So that's very simple. So we have assumed that we make the DBB. Obviously we can do that after the annual anniversary. On the question around -- or the challenge around conservatism and interest rate outlook, I hear you in terms of the where the curve is now. I'm sure you'll understand we have to look at the balance of the economic consensus. Even in the space the last 7 or 10 days, as you well know, it's moved around, so what we've done is, we've got a set of assumptions there which has 5 cuts in '24, 4 in '25, with the first one in May. What I would say is, Aman, is that we've been there, I guess we've given a lot of disclosure around the sensitivities, so for those who want to take a different view around some of that volatility, it's pretty easy to do given the disclosures we've got, depending on where your views are on the 5 and 4, 4 and 3, 3 and 2 et cetera. So that's where we are on those 2. Katie, do you want to talk on the revenue guide?

謝謝，阿曼。我要二號和三號。然後凱蒂會讓你討論收入指南。所以——阿曼，關於定向回購，簡單的答案是它在我們的計劃和橋樑中。這非常簡單。因此我們假設我們製造了 DBB。顯然，我們可以在周年紀念日之後做到這一點。關於保守主義和利率前景的問題或挑戰，我聽到了您對現在曲線位置的看法。我相信你會理解我們必須考慮經濟共識的平衡。正如你們所知道的，即使在過去 7 天或 10 天內，它也一直在波動，因此我們所做的就是，我們做出了一系列假設，其中 24 年降息 5 次，25 年降息 4 次，第一次降息是在 5 月。我想說的是，阿曼，我們已經去過那裡，我想我們已經對敏感性進行了大量的披露，因此對於那些想要對某些波動性採取不同看法的人來說，根據我們已經獲得的披露，這很容易做到，具體取決於你對 5 和 4、4 和 3、3 和 2 等等的看法。這就是我們現在討論的這兩個問題。

Thanks very much. So look. As I look at it, as you know, there's a number of variables. And even in your question, I think you kind of know the answer I'm about to give you but -- that are impacting that kind of income range. The customer behavior has been relatively difficult to predict. And we may see different competitive dynamics, so the way that I think about it is I would think of 4 things as you try to kind of build in with your own model. Obviously, base rate cuts, Paul has already talked about them. We've got 5 in for May and 4 in for later. The timing of that rate cut is important for income. We've got it in starting in May. It could be different from that, but as Paul said, you've got the sensitivities there. You can take a view on that. The second one, deposit volumes and mix. We expect deposit balances to fall a little in Q1 as a result of tax payments and thereafter move broadly in line with what you see happening in the market. We do expect the deposit migration to continue into 2024 but obviously at slower pace than we've seen. As we talked about it, Q3, we could already see that slowing down, but again we don't expect that to be linear.

非常感謝。那麼看一下。正如你所知，在我看來，存在許多變數。甚至在你的問題中，我想你知道我將要給你的答案，但是 - 這會影響那種收入範圍。客戶行為相對難以預測。我們可能會看到不同的競爭動態，因此我的想法是，當您嘗試建立自己的模型時，我會考慮 4 件事。顯然，保羅已經談到了基準利率下調。 5 月我們有 5 份，之後還有 4 份。降息的時機對於收入來說很重要。我們從五月就開始這麼做了。情況可能有所不同，但正如保羅所說，你對此很敏感。你可以對此發表看法。第二，存量及混合。我們預計，由於納稅的原因，第一季存款餘額將略有下降，此後的走勢與市場情況大致一致。我們確實預計存款遷移將持續到 2024 年，但速度顯然比我們所看到的要慢。正如我們在第三季所討論的那樣，我們已經看到這一速度正在放緩，但我們再次預計這一速度不會呈線性增長。

The third thing, the structural hedge, you're very familiar with that. It's a tailwind in 2024 as the higher yield offsets lower volume. And then finally, mortgage volume and margin, which I'm sure we'll get into in more detail as the call goes on. Overall, as we look at the income, we're very focused on managing both sides of the balance sheet to make sure that we deliver our income and our returns guidance. We expect the shape to improve as you go through the year but with the second half being slightly stronger than the first half. I'll just pick up one last bit on the DBB. The retail share offering is -- does not impact our buybacks. As a Board, we plan our -- what we need to do. And so it's a completely separate debate.

第三件事，結構性對沖，大家對此非常熟悉。由於更高的收益率可以抵消更低的交易量，因此這對 2024 年來說是一個順風。最後是抵押貸款量和保證金，我相信隨著通話的進行，我們會更詳細地討論這個問題。總體而言，當我們查看收入時，我們非常注重管理資產負債表的兩邊，以確保我們實現收入和回報預期。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，情況會有所改善，但下半年會比上半年略強。我只想談談 DBB 的最後一點。零售股票發行不會影響我們的回購。作為董事會，我們計劃我們需要做什麼。所以這是一場完全獨立的辯論。

And it is in the plan.

這是在計劃之中。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Benjamin Toms of RBC.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的本傑明湯姆斯 (Benjamin Toms)。

I've worked out when you've gotten now. You note your guidance on your income, ex notable items, of GBP 13 billion to GBP 13.5 billion, but could you provide us with an estimate for NIM for the full year, I guess, based on your new measure, and how the shape of NIM might change as we go through the year? And then secondly, just a clarification question on your sensitivities to rate cuts, where you assume a 60% pass-through assumption. Can you just clarify what that 60% means? Is it measured from the first rate rise in the cycle or from the first rate cut? If it's the latter, is 60% a fairly conservative assumption? I think I've heard peers of yours talk about deposit pass-through being much higher on the way down than it is on the way up.

我已經知道你現在幾點了。您提到，您的收入預期（不包括顯著項目）為 130 億英鎊至 135 億英鎊，但您能否根據您的新衡量標準，為我們提供全年 NIM 的預估數字，以及 NIM 的形態在全年中將如何變化？其次，我想澄清一下您對降息的敏感性，您假設的傳導率為 60%。你能解釋一下 60% 是什麼意思嗎？是從週期內第一次升息開始算，還是從第一次降息開始算？如果是後者，那麼 60% 是相當保守的假設嗎？我想我曾聽過你們的同行談論過存款轉嫁率在下降過程中比上升過程中高得多。

Thanks, Ben. Katie, do you want to pick the NIM piece up?

謝謝，本。凱蒂，你想把 NIM 碎片撿起來嗎？

Yes, sure, absolutely. So in terms of NIM, Ben, we're providing you with total income guidance today, GBP 13 billion to GBP 13.5 billion. As you've heard, we've managed margins across both sides of the balance sheet. Managing margins is obviously a key focus for the entire management team, but it really is one of the drivers that we look to in terms of the overall return. You need to consider the cost of risk, capital requirements and, of course, the operational costs of doing business. And this is why RoTE is our key financial metric, and it's what will drive capital generation and capacity for investment and distribution to shareholders. The key income drivers that I've talked a little bit about already for 2024 are also our key margin drivers, so you can assume that margin will follow a similar shape to income as we progress through the year.

是的，當然，絕對是。因此，就 NIM 而言，Ben，我們今天為您提供總收入指導，即 130 億英鎊至 135 億英鎊。正如您所聽到的，我們已經管理了資產負債表兩邊的利潤。管理利潤顯然是整個管理團隊關注的重點，但就整體回報而言，它確實是我們所關注的驅動因素之一。您需要考慮風險成本、資本需求，當然還有經營業務的營運成本。這就是為什麼 RoTE 是我們的關鍵財務指標，它將推動資本創造和投資能力以及向股東分配的能力。我已經談到的 2024 年的主要收入驅動因素也是我們的主要利潤驅動因素，因此您可以假設，隨著時間的推移，利潤率將呈現與收入類似的形態。

And on the...

而且在...

Shall I take that one -- yes, perfect. So on the sensitivity. So the way that we've done it, I think, it's an illustrative example of a single 25 basis point cut. So by definition, it's the incremental pass-through on that. We have said that the pass-through will be very much a function of competitive dynamics. And similarly to the way, when we were on the way up, we didn't share with you what our next pass-through thoughts were. They obviously emerged as competition and market dynamics are just dedicated. And we're not -- I'm not going to share with you -- with it just now, but we have worked on a 60% pass-through of that rate, taking in mind as well that there is a delay in passing through because of some of the regulatory requirements and the speed of notification that you need to give to our customer base. So that has also been built in a little bit as well. Clearly, how we do it and the time of implementation will be dependent on customer and market. Thanks, Ben.

我該選這個嗎？就敏感度而言。所以，我認為，我們的做法是單次降息 25 個基點的典型例子。所以根據定義，這是增量傳遞。我們已經說過，傳遞過程很大程度取決於競爭動態。和上路類似的是，我們在上升的過程中，並沒有和大家分享我們接下來的穿越想法是什麼。他們顯然是因為競爭和市場動態而出現的。我們現在還沒有——我不會和你們分享——但我們已經努力將這一利率提高到 60%，同時也考慮到由於一些監管要求以及我們需要向客戶群發出通知的速度，利率提高可能會有所延遲。因此這也已被一點點地建構了。顯然，我們如何做以及實施時間將取決於客戶和市場。謝謝，本。

Yes. What I'd add on that, Ben, is I would see it as a sensitivity and an example, not a statement of our pricing strategy. Our pricing strategy will be influenced by as and when the rate changes happen, what the competitor responses are, what our funding and liquidity needs are at that time as well. Thanks, Ben.

是的。本，我想補充的是，我將其視為一種敏感性問題和一個例子，而不是我們的定價策略的陳述。我們的定價策略將受到利率變動的時間、競爭對手的反應以及當時的資金和流動性需求的影響。謝謝，本。

Our next question comes from Raul Sinha from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Raul Sinha。

I've got 2, please. The first one is just around the confidence in your new RoTE targets, just interested in the moving parts from the sort of 12% that you guide for '24 to above 13% for 2026. I guess the simple question is, is it all just driven by the hedge. Or are there other sort of material drivers that you would point to as well? And I guess, related to that, the second question, just on the mortgage business. The book didn't grow in Q4. Obviously your flow share was 10.5%. I think you've done 14% share through the year. I'm just trying to understand if this more disciplined approach to mortgage growth means that we should expect lower growth in the loan book driven by mortgages going forward given competitiveness in this market is probably not going to change. And just an addendum to that, if you could give us a bit more color on the mortgage refinancing churn, the back book to front book, how it phases through the quarters in 2024, that would be really helpful.

我有 2 個。第一個問題只是圍繞著您對新的 RoTE 目標的信心，只是對您預期的 24 年 12% 到 2026 年 13% 以上的變動部分感興趣。或者您還想指出其他類型的物質驅動因素？我想，與此相關的第二個問題是關於抵押貸款業務的。該書的銷量在第四季沒有成長。顯然你的流量份額是 10.5%。我認為你們今年的份額已經達到了 14%。我只是想知道，如果這種對抵押貸款成長採取更加嚴謹的態度，是否意味著，鑑於這個市場的競爭力可能不會改變，我們應該預期未來由抵押貸款推動的貸款帳簿的成長將會下降。另外補充一下，如果您能給我們提供更多關於抵押貸款再融資流失率、後賬簿到前賬簿的變化以及它在 2024 年各個季度的變化情況的詳細信息，那將會非常有幫助。

Thanks, Raul. Katie, why don't -- I'll start with a couple of things on RoTE. And maybe you can talk to the bridge.

謝謝，勞爾。凱蒂，為什麼不——我先從 RoTE 上的幾個事情開始。也許你可以和橋樑交談。

Perfect.

完美的。

And then we can -- I'm sure we can both have a go on mortgages.

然後我們就可以——我相信我們都可以嘗試抵押貸款。

Perfect. Sure, yes.

完美的。當然，是的。

So Raul, just on the broader kind of RoTE guidance. Obviously we've shared around 12% for '24 and greater than 13% for '26. We thought about that carefully. You can see the economic assumptions we've played through there. And again, in my response to Aman, you can take your view on them. The main thing really that's driving that is the path of the peak, I guess, from 5.25 to 3 over the course of the 2 years. But to the heart of your question is what drives the upturn. It's certainly more than the hedge. Katie talked about the kind of tailwind from the hedge, but from my perspective, I'm very focused on growing a number of the different P&L lines. We'll be managing costs and capital very tightly, thinking very carefully about capital allocation but also driving growth in our core businesses as well, whether that's the fee lines or lending growth, be it mortgages or corporate. So it's certainly supported by the tailwind in the hedge, but we're gripping the other levers to drive the business forward.

因此，Raul，只是就更廣泛的 RoTE 指導而言。顯然，我們在 24 年的份額約為 12%，在 26 年的份額超過 13%。我們仔細考慮了這個問題。您可以看到我們在此做出的經濟假設。再一次，在我對阿曼的回覆中，你可以對他們發表你的看法。我猜，真正推動這一進程的主要因素是峰值的路徑，在兩年的時間裡從 5.25 降至 3。但你的問題的核心是推動經濟好轉的因素。這肯定比對沖要多。凱蒂談到了對沖帶來的順風，但從我的角度來看，我非常專注於增加不同的損益線。我們將嚴格管理成本和資本，仔細考慮資本配置，同時也推動核心業務的成長，無論是費用線還是貸款成長，無論是抵押貸款還是企業貸款。因此，它肯定會受到對沖順風的支持，但我們正在抓住其他槓桿來推動業務向前發展。

I think I might just move straight to mortgages, I mean, if that's okay. So in terms of the mortgage piece. So as you look at the mortgage book, if I start with the kind of phasing of the churn, what we see is more stable in Q1 or the roll-on and roll-off kind of dynamic. And then we'll expect stability, I think, to kind of come through in Q2. We did, in this last quarter, very much manage the application flows that was coming through as we saw the shape of the balance sheet. I think that's a very rational thing to have done. 14% over the year, we're very comfortable with. It's above our stock share. And we do see this as an area that we can -- it's an important area for growth. I don't think you should necessarily expect growth every quarter, but certainly growth over time is what we would be expecting. I think it is, has been important with some of the pricing dynamics and things and the movements in the swap curve is to make sure you're really managing it for value and maximizing your RoTE in that space. So very comfortable with that process, so I wouldn't see that as 1 quarter being a bellwether for the future. We still view this is a book that's important to us, returns very good, RoTE for the business and an important area for growth as we move forward from that and one of the areas that we're making significant investments so that we're able to scale and really benefit from the digitization of this business. Thanks, Raul.

我想我可能會直接轉到抵押貸款，我是說，如果可以的話。就抵押貸款部分而言。因此，當您查看抵押貸款帳簿時，如果我從客戶流失的階段開始，我們會看到第一季的情況更加穩定，或者呈現滾動式的動態。然後，我認為，我們預計穩定性將在第二季度實現。在上個季度，我們確實根據資產負債表的狀況對流過的申請流程進行了很好的管理。我認為這是非常理性的做法。較上年同期成長 14%，我們對此感到非常滿意。它高於我們的股票份額。我們確實認為這是一個可以實現成長的重要領域。我認為你不一定應該期望每個季度都會成長，但我們肯定會期望隨著時間的推移而成長。我認為，對於某些定價動態等因素以及掉期曲線的變動而言，重要的是確保你真正管理它以實現價值，並最大化該空間內的 RoTE。我對這個過程非常滿意，因此我不會認為這 1 個季度可以成為未來的風向標。我們仍然認為這本書對我們來說很重要，回報率非常好，對業務來說是回報率，也是我們未來成長的一個重要領域，也是我們正在進行重大投資的領域之一，以便我們能夠擴大規模，並真正受益於這項業務的數位化。謝謝，勞爾。

Our next question comes from Andrew Coombs of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的安德魯·庫姆斯（Andrew Coombs）。

I hope you can hear me.

我希望你能聽到我的聲音。

Andrew.

安德魯。

Yes, great. So 2 questions. First one, just on the structural hedge. I think the previous guidance was for it to finish the year at GBP 190 billion. And it's actually come in at GBP 185 billion. And that's even though the deposit mix shift seems to be -- it seems to have been broadly in line with what you were guiding for Q3, so perhaps you could explain what caused the additional GBP 5 billion decline in the nominal. And also, any color you want to add on where you think the direction of travel is magnitude-wise for 2024? So that's the first question.

是的，太棒了。所以有 2 個問題。第一個，只是關於結構性對沖。我認為之前的預期是今年年底的收入將達到 1900 億英鎊。實際金額為1850億英鎊。儘管存款結構的變化似乎與您對第三季的預期大致一致，但您或許可以解釋一下是什麼導致了名義存款額外下降 50 億英鎊。另外，您想根據 2024 年的旅行方向添加什麼顏色嗎？這是第一個問題。

Second question was actually just on the impairments given the confident guidance you've given for this year, the less than 20 basis points. I noted on Slide 21 you still get through-the-cycle figures, 20 to 30, and you obviously expect to come in better than that this year. Just is there anything baked into that for release of the GBP 429 million adjustment for economic uncertainty? Or is it just the case of better IFRS 9 assumptions, lower stage 3 migration, et cetera, et cetera?

第二個問題其實只是關於減損，鑑於您對今年的信心指導，減損幅度不到 20 個基點。我在第 21 張投影片上註意到，您仍然可以獲得整個週期的數字，即 20 到 30，而且您顯然希望今年的數字會更好。那麼，發布 4.29 億英鎊的經濟不確定性調整金額是否包含任何因素？或者這只是更好的 IFRS 9 假設、較低的第 3 階段遷移等等的情況？

Katie, do you want to take the hedge?

凱蒂，你想走樹籬嗎？

Yes, perfect, absolutely..

是的，完美，絕對…

I'll take impairments.

我會承受損失。

Sure, absolutely. So as I look at the hedge, what we'd sort of talked about was around a GBP 190 billion base on a static balance sheet. We know that the balance sheet obviously is not static. In terms of the direction of travel is a few things I would probably mention on that. The average product yield for the hedge was 142 basis points. It's important to understand, in the fourth quarter, that increased to 152 basis points for the quarter. When I look at the kind of sizing of the hedge as we go into next year, we would expect the shrinkage to be less than we saw in 2023, in line with that conversation we've had around deposit movements kind of stabilizing in the middle of the year. If you were to look at the year-end notional balances and the mix remains static, you could see that, that number would kind of recalibrate to about GBP 170 billion. I think what's important, though, as you look at the hedge is also the level of reinvestment. So Andrew, it matures over 2.5 years. You take the GBP 185 billion today. You -- 1/5 of it will mature every year, so therefore, it's GBP 37 billion when you look at that kind of average life of the book. We are assuming that it gets reinvested at around 310 over the course of the year. You can see that rates are slightly better than that today, but on average, we think that's an appropriate number to look at. And we've talked in the past around the fact that the roll-off yield is so much lower than what the reinvested real, so we do see this as a positive tailwind as you see that stabilization coming through in the first half of the year and moving forward from there. And Paul, did you want to take impairments?

當然，絕對是如此。因此，當我查看對沖時，我們所談論的是基於靜態資產負債表的 1900 億英鎊左右的對沖。我們知道，資產負債表顯然不是靜態的。關於旅行方向，我可能會提到一些事情。對沖產品的平均報酬率為142個基點。重要的是要了解，在第四季度，該季度的數字增加到了 152 個基點。當我觀察明年對沖的規模時，我們預計縮水幅度將低於 2023 年，這與我們討論的存款流動在年中趨於穩定的討論一致。如果您查看年末名目餘額且組合保持不變，您會發現該數字將重新調整為約 1700 億英鎊。我認為，當你考慮對沖時，重要的還在於再投資的水平。所以安德魯，它的成熟期是 2.5 年。今天你拿到的是1850億英鎊。其中 1/5 每年都會到期，因此，如果以這種帳面平均壽命來算，其金額就是 370 億英鎊。我們假設它在一年內將重新投資到 310 左右。您可以看到利率比現在略有好轉，但平均而言，我們認為這是一個值得關注的合適數字。我們過去曾討論過這樣一個事實，即滾動收益率遠低於再投資的實際收益率，因此我們確實認為這是一個積極的順風，因為你會看到這種穩定在上半年出現並將繼續向前發展。保羅，你想承受損失嗎？

Yes, I'll take impairments. Andrew, your hypothesis or as you outlined is pretty much spot on. The book is performing better than we'd anticipated. Customers have adapted resiliently to the higher rate environment, so arrears levels remain low across most of the asset books. So loan impairment, 15 bps for '23, obviously below our through-the-cycle range. You've seen the guide for '24, below 20. So assuming no sign of significant macro deterioration. You also astutely point out we do have post-model adjustments of GBP 0.5 billion for -- well, GBP 400 million for economic uncertainty, GBP 0.5 billion overall, but we will be very prudent about them in terms of the release. So your thesis is right in terms of what's happening. Thanks.

是的，我會承受損失。安德魯，你的假設或你所概述的幾乎都是正確的。這本書的表現比我們預期的還要好。客戶已經適應了更高的利率環境，因此大多數資產帳簿的欠款水準仍然較低。因此，23年的貸款減損為15個基點，明顯低於我們的週期範圍。你已經看到了 24 年的指南，低於 20。您還敏銳地指出，我們確實對模型後進行了 5 億英鎊的調整——嗯，4 億英鎊用於應對經濟不確定性，總體而言是 5 億英鎊，但在發布方面我們會非常謹慎。所以就目前的情況來看，你的論點是正確的。謝謝。

That's really helpful. Can I just clarify one thing with Katie? Roll-off yields. I think previously you said 80 bps for this year and 50 bps for '25, presuming that guidance is unchanged.

這真的很有幫助。我可以向凱蒂澄清一件事嗎？收益率滾動上升。我記得您之前說過，假設指導方針保持不變，今年是 80 個基點，2025 年是 50 個基點。

I mean it's unchanged. There are some technicalities that I'm going to not get into too much detail, but as we're kind of managing the process of reducing the notional and we use pay-fixed swaps to reduce, that roll-off yield actually does reduce. So it's actually a bit lower than that in terms of the mechanics that we do. So -- but I think, if you work with those and the difference between but then just that pay-fixed swap as we manage the notional does have a little bit of an impact. But those are good numbers for you to use.

我的意思是它沒有改變。有些技術細節我不會講得太詳細，但隨著我們在管理減少名目金額的過程，並使用固定支付掉期來減少名目金額，滾轉收益率實際上確實會減少。所以就我們所做的機製而言，它實際上要比這低一點。所以 — — 但我認為，如果你處理這些以及它們之間的差異，那麼當我們管理名目金額時，固定利率掉期確實會產生一點影響。但這些數字對你來說很有用。

Our next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

Hopefully, you can hear me okay. I've got a follow-up, apologies, on the margin and what to expect. If we put to one side the -- your -- what looks pretty conservative rate assumption, how much of the mortgage sort of your 80 basis points on mortgage product spread? And how much more headwinds should we expect in the first half of '24? And similarly, we've seen sector data point to very stable deposit movement in November and December, so is there much more drag on deposit margins as well?

希望您能聽到我的話。我有一個後續問題，抱歉，關於邊際以及預期結果。如果我們把看起來相當保守的利率假設放在一邊，那麼抵押貸款產品利差中 80 個基點的比例是多少？那麼，我們預計24年上半年還會有多少阻力呢？同樣，我們已經看到產業數據顯示11月和12月的存款走勢非常穩定，那麼存款利潤率是否也會受到更大的拖累？

And if I look -- related to that. If I look at your above 13% RoTE in 2026 versus the 12% this year. Is it -- and I compare that to the 9 rate cuts you've got. It does feel like your revenues are not going to grow until we're done with rate cuts. Is that kind of what's reflected in that 2026 improvement, that once you get through the rate cuts in '25, it will improve? And sorry for that long first question, and Paul, maybe one more for you.

如果我看—與此相關。如果我看一下 2026 年的 RoTE 是否高於 13%，而今年為 12%。是的——我將這與你們已經獲得的 9 次降息進行了比較。感覺除非我們完成降息，否則您的收入不會成長。這是否反映了 2026 年的改善，即一旦度過 25 年的降息階段，情況就會改善？很抱歉第一個問題這麼長，保羅，也許我還能再問你一個問題。

I think I'd call that 3 questions in 1, but let's get your second question then. Let's see if he can hit 6.

我認為我應該將其稱為三問一答，那麼我們先來回答您的第二個問題。我們看看他能否打出6分。

Hence my apology. For -- this one is more for Paul, I guess. In your opening sort of -- in your section, you talked about improving share in targeted segments. When we look back over the last few years, it's been very much focused around mortgage growth. When you think about the next 3 years in your plan, what would you highlight of your key sort of focus on growth areas versus what we've seen in the past?

因此我深表歉意。對於 — — 我猜，這個比較適合保羅。在您的開場白中，您談到了提高目標細分市場的份額。回顧過去幾年，我們發現人們主要關注的是抵押貸款的成長。當您考慮未來 3 年的計劃時，與過去相比，您會重點關注哪些成長領域？

No problem. Katie, which (inaudible) choose the ones...

沒問題。凱蒂，哪個（聽不清楚）選了那些…

Shall I I'll kick off. That's fine. Exactly, I'll take question one. So if I look at the mortgage margin, obviously we talked a lot last year about how the book would ultimately stabilize around that 80 basis points; and that's where we are at the end of that year, at the end of the year. What we can see is that the level of churn and come down that we've had in that rate has obviously kind of come to an end. Well, I would say, at the moment, we're currently writing around 70 basis points. And so the impact of the mortgage book refinancing headwind will be lower in 2024 than it was in 2023, but there will still be a little bit of movement around about that. And I think that we do expect there to be some stabilization in mid-2024. Clearly, the volatility in the swap rates we've written some of the business over time, a bit below the 80. And we're comfortable with the level of writing we're doing just now. You can see that we're managing that in terms of the flow share that we have.

要不我就開始了。沒關係。沒錯，我來回答第一個問題。所以如果我看抵押貸款利潤率，顯然我們去年討論了很多關於帳面最終將如何穩定在 80 個基點左右的問題；這就是我們在年底、年末的處境。我們可以看到，我們所經歷的流失率和下降水準顯然已經結束了。嗯，我想說，目前，我們目前的利率約為 70 個基點。因此，抵押貸款再融資逆風的影響在 2024 年將低於 2023 年，但仍會有一些波動。我認為我們確實預期 2024 年中期會出現一定程度的穩定。顯然，我們為部分業務編寫的掉期利率波動性隨著時間的推移略低於 80。您可以看到，我們正在根據所擁有的流量份額進行管理。

On deposits. I mean I guess the way that I would look at it as we look at both at the Bank of England data; and the data, the experience we're seeing in our own book, we are still seeing some migration. You can see that we went from 15% to 16.4% at the end of the year. So still kind of seeing that. We do expect that to continue for another couple of quarters and we expect that it will probably stabilize in the kind of the summer months. If I look at revenue into 2026. I mean, Alvaro, that's certainly not the impression, that revenue is flat from here till there. That's something we've been talking a lot about this throughout last year. As you see that deposit stabilization and then the mortgage stabilization as well what -- and then you start to see the structural hedge kind of come through, we expect the second half income of 2024 to be better than the first half, and we expect that to continue to develop into '25 and to 2026. And Paul, I'll give you question two.

關於存款。我的意思是，我想當我們查看英格蘭銀行的數據時，我會這樣看待這個問題；從數據和我們在書中看到的經驗來看，我們仍然看到一些遷移現象。您可以看到，到年底我們從 15％ 上升到了 16.4％。所以仍然能看到這種現象。我們確實預計這種情況將持續幾個季度，並且我們預計這種情況可能會在夏季趨於穩定。如果我看一下 2026 年的收入。這是我們去年一直在談論的事情。當您看到存款穩定，然後抵押貸款穩定，然後您開始看到結構性對沖發揮作用時，我們預計 2024 年下半年的收入將好於上半年，並且我們預計這種情況將持續發展到 2025 年和 2026 年。

Yes. Thanks, Katie. Alvaro, I'm thinking quite broadly around the opportunities for growth in the business. You rightly pointed out in my presentation I highlighted a number of areas. I think, just going through the different customer businesses, we have the mortgages as we've positioned. If the market is there, the demand is there and the pricing is right, then we're now the second biggest lender, but we'll continue to grow there. So that's one area of continued growth in retail, providing the margins and the returns are there. We've also made good progress on the unsecured side in retail. We're happy there with both the returns but also the credit quality. So we see -- and obviously we're underweight relative to some of our peers in those areas, so that's an opportunity that the retail team are astutely focused on. In the kind of Commercial & Institutional business, we've seen some good growth around our project finance, infrastructure and funds business. We believe they're businesses and asset classes that offer good upside over the course of the next couple of years. We're not only building, I guess, for the next year or 2. We're also making big market share gains in areas like startups and youth, where we're now over 20%. And the way I think about that is we're kind of -- we're filling the pipe for future, the future revenue and future returns, so we're very focused on growth, but we're very focused on disciplined growth. That's how I and the team talk about it. And we think there's plenty of opportunities embedded within the core businesses of NatWest to do that.

是的。謝謝，凱蒂。阿爾瓦羅，我正在廣泛思考業務成長機會。您正確地指出，我在演講中強調了許多領域。我認為，只要透過不同的客戶業務，我們就有已經定位的抵押貸款。如果市場存在，需求存在，定價合適，那麼我們現在就是第二大貸款機構，但我們會繼續在那裡發展。所以，只要有利潤和回報，這就是零售業持續成長的領域。我們在零售無擔保方面也取得了良好進展。我們對回報和信用品質都很滿意。所以我們看到——顯然，與這些領域的一些同行相比，我們的持股比例較低，所以這是零售團隊精明地關注的機會。在商業和機構業務方面，我們的專案融資、基礎設施和基金業務取得了良好的成長。我們相信，這些業務和資產類別在未來幾年將具有良好的上升空間。我想，我們不僅在為未來一兩年進行建設。 我們在新創公司和青年等領域也大幅提高市場份額，現在我們的份額已超過 20%。我的想法是，我們正在為未來、未來的收入和未來的回報鋪平道路，所以我們非常注重成長，但我們非常注重有紀律的成長。這就是我和團隊談論此事的方式。我們認為，NatWest 的核心業務中蘊含著大量實現這一目標的機會。

Our next question comes from Guy Stebbings of BNP Paribas Exane.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Guy Stebbings。

I think we have an issue with Guy's microphone, so we're now going to go over to Fahed Kunwar from Redburn Atlantic.

我認為 Guy 的麥克風出了問題，因此我們現在要聯繫 Redburn Atlantic 的 Fahed Kunwar。

Hopefully, you can hear me.

希望你能聽到我的聲音。

We can.

我們可以。

Just a couple of questions. Firstly, on the returns point around the greater than 13% in 2026. I mean, if I look back to when you first gave the 14% to 16% guidance, which I think it was like August '22, even your kind of quite conservative rate expectations, they weren't actually that different then. If I look at the 5-year swap curve, I think it was running at like kind of like mid-2s or a little high 2s versus the 3.1% you're assuming, so why have you -- why is your return expectations come down versus that August 2023? It can't just be base rates. Was the mix shift just far more than you had anticipated at that point? That's question one.

僅有幾個問題。首先，關於 2026 年的回報率，預計在 13% 以上。如果我看一下 5 年期掉期曲線，我認為它的運行速度有點像 2.5 的中間值或略高於 2.5 的值，而您假設的值為 3.1%，那麼為什麼您的回報預期與 2023 年 8 月相比有所下降呢？它不能只是基準利率。混合變化是否遠遠超出了你當時的預期？這是第一個問題。

And the second question was on costs. I see sort of wage negotiations done, I think, for 2024. Does that mean actually the risk of costs missing, if inflation is stickier than we think, is less because actually you've already negotiated the wages? And any sticky inflation would probably be a 2025 issue. Is that the way to think about 2024 costs?

第二個問題是關於成本。我認為，2024 年的薪資談判已經完成。任何頑固的通膨都可能成為2025年的問題。這就是考慮 2024 年成本的方式嗎？

Well, I'll take costs. And then Katie, you can talk to the RoTE point. So I think your thesis is good on costs, Fahed. As you say, we've agreed with the unions an offer that we think is appropriate and fair at around 4%. We obviously delivered on our costs this year. We've guided next year -- sorry, '24, that costs will be broadly stable. Probably worth pointing out that we do build into our cost guide the ability to kind of take restructuring on the people and the property side, but we prefer to take them in year rather than any extraordinary charges, so they're all built into the plan. So we're very comfortable on the cost guide. I think we've got a good track record over a number of years of delivering on that line.

好吧，我承擔費用。然後凱蒂，你可以談談 RoTE 要點。因此，我認為你的關於成本的論文很好，法赫德。正如您所說，我們已經與工會達成了我們認為合適且公平的報價，約為 4%。我們今年顯然已經完成了成本。我們預計明年——抱歉，是 24 年，成本將基本保持穩定。可能值得指出的是，我們確實在成本指南中考慮到了在人員和財產方面進行重組的能力，但我們更願意按年進行重組，而不是收取任何額外費用，因此這些都納入了計劃中。因此我們對成本指南非常滿意。我認為我們多年來在這一領域有著良好的業績記錄。

Perfect. Thanks, Paul. So if I look at the bridge from why no longer 14% to 16%, I think there's a number of things, Fahed, you need to kind of take into account. If I compare just to when we spoke in October, then it's all a story of rates, in terms of the expectations that were there, but you rightly went back to kind of August '22, when we first talked about that. And absolutely, rate expectations are not that different, but I think none of us at that point could have imagined the journey that rates went on when we saw swap curves go all the way up to 6% and then come down and then go back up again and actually what this then delivered in terms of the change in customer behavior and the mix of that. We were sitting at about 4% sitting in term. We're now sitting at 16% and expecting that to continue to increase. So that's been one of the things. I think there's also been another couple of things. With that rate curve going up, we also saw inflation going up significantly. We did pay awards that were 6.6%, 4%. These evolving things we've had to build into the cost line. We're happy with how we've delivered on those, but obviously still put the RoTE under pressure. And I think the most important thing also to think about is the denominator, the TNAV. So our TNAV is growing very well, very strongly this year. I think up 28p over the year. We predict it will continue to grow as you see that cash flow kind of unwinding, but the real difference from when we last spoke formally, in October, is that movements in rates which has been really bigger than any of us had anticipated. Thanks, Fahed.

完美的。謝謝，保羅。因此，如果我看為什麼不再是 14% 到 16% 的橋樑，我認為有很多事情，法赫德，你需要考慮。如果我將其與我們 10 月談話時進行比較，那麼就當時的預期而言，這完全是一個利率的故事，但您正確地追溯到了 2022 年 8 月，當時我們第一次談論這個問題。當然，利率預期並沒有太大不同，但我認為，當時我們誰也無法想像利率會經歷怎樣的轉變，當我們看到掉期曲線一路上漲至 6% 然後下降，然後又回升時，以及這實際上在客戶行為變化等因素方面帶來了什麼。我們的任期約為 4%。目前這一比例為 16%，預計還會繼續增加。這就是其中一件事。我認為還存在另外一些事情。隨著利率曲線上升，我們也看到通貨膨脹大幅上升。我們確實支付了6.6%、4%的獎金。我們必須將這些不斷發展的事物納入成本線中。我們對於實現這些目標感到滿意，但顯然 RoTE 仍然面臨壓力。我認為，需要考慮的最重要的事情是分母，即 TNAV。因此，我們的 TNAV 今年成長得非常好，非常強勁。我認為今年上漲了 28 便士。我們預測，隨著現金流的減少，利率將繼續增長，但與我們上次 10 月正式談話相比，真正的區別在於，利率的變動確實比我們任何人預期的都要大。謝謝，法赫德。

Our next question comes from Ed Firth from KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ed Firth。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes. You're a bit faint Ed, but we can.

是的。你有點暈，艾德，但我們可以。

I'll try to speak little bit later.

我會盡量稍後再講。

We're good now. That's good.

我們現在很好。那挺好的。

Okay, yes. I just have 2 strategic questions really for Paul, if that's all right. My first one is if one looks at the sort of full length of this downturn. I guess one of the key characteristics or the -- or differential characteristics has been much lower loan growth in the market as a whole and much better credit. I guess that's, to me, one of the big highlights today is your credit outlook for this year given some of the stresses we see in the broader economy, so I just wonder. As you look forward, do you see that there's -- as a bank, there's more appetite for loan growth going forward? Or -- and I suppose that's really a question about supply versus demand. Is it a demand problem or a supply problem? Is that the key issue in terms of a sort of reasonably lackluster -- because I guess the loan growth and the economic performance often go together. So that's my first question is how do you as a sort of new CEO look at that. And how do you feel the balance is and whether you've got that right and how it might change going forward? So that's the first question.

好的，是的。如果可以的話，我只想問保羅兩個戰略問題。我的第一個問題是，如果我們看一下這次經濟衰退的整個持續時間。我認為其中一個關鍵特徵或差異特徵是整個市場的貸款成長率要低得多，而且信貸品質要好得多。我想，對我來說，今天的一大亮點是考慮到我們在整體經濟中看到的一些壓力，您對今年的信用前景有何看法，所以我只是想知道。展望未來，您是否看到—作為一家銀行，未來對貸款成長的興趣會更大？或者——我認為這實際上是一個關於供給與需求的問題。是需求問題還是供給問題？這是相當低迷的關鍵問題嗎——因為我認為貸款成長和經濟表現往往是相伴而生的。所以我的第一個問題是，作為新任首席執行官，您如何看待這一點。您覺得這種平衡如何？這是第一個問題。

And then my second question was about retail, which I know is not your traditional business, but now you've had sort of 6 months, I guess, to look at it. It's making a mid-20s return, which is pretty punchy. And I guess that's in an environment where you've got some pretty strong new competitors coming in, which Chase is obviously the most important one, all of whom are paying much better rates than you are on like-for-like products. And I guess they can justify that because they don't have the hedge headwinds. And they probably have got better systems than you have. That's an assumption, but by all means, tell me that's wrong. So I just -- my question is as you look at that return going forward. How sustainable do you think that is at those sort of levels as an incumbent bank? And I guess, what sort of -- do you think there's further costs you're going to have to take to try and sustain that level? Or how should we think about that going forward?

我的第二個問題是關於零售的，我知道這不是你們的傳統業務，但我想現在你們已經有 6 個月的時間來研究它了。它的回報率達到了 20% 左右，相當強勁。我想，這是因為你面臨著一些非常強大的新競爭對手的進入，其中大通顯然是最重要的一個，他們都在同類產品上支付比你更優惠的利率。我想他們可以證明這一點，因為他們沒有面臨對沖逆風。而且他們的系統可能比你們的更好。這是一個假設，但無論如何，請告訴我這是錯的。所以我只是—我的問題是，當你展望未來時，你會如何看待這項回報。作為一家現有銀行，您認為這種程度的可持續性如何？我想，您認為為了維持這個水平，您還需要付出哪些進一步的成本？或者我們今後該如何思考這個問題？

Thanks -- no, it's fine. Thanks. All good, broad strategic questions. On the first, around how do we -- how do I think about loan growth, I guess I'd point you to '23. We've grown our asset side of the balance sheet by 3%. Obviously, given our size, we are linked in some ways to the health of the economy. The way I think about it is, given the scale of our businesses, whether that's our commercial business, whether that's our mortgage business, we should target ourselves to grow at above market rates. I think we've proven over a number of years in both businesses that we've successfully grown the asset side of the business. There are also certain aspects of loan growth where, as I've alluded to, we're underweight relative to the market. We touched on unsecured earlier. We're still only the second mortgage -- the second largest mortgage provider, so there are opportunities to grow, but ultimately we are geared to the U.K. economy there. And to your point on demand versus supply, from a supply issue, we have capital available. We're very keen to put that to work, providing it's at the right returns, across all of our businesses, whether that's our private bank, obviously also lends, our retail bank or our corporate bank. So that's how I think about it. I think it's -- that's the broad -- a broad picture.

謝謝——不，沒關係。謝謝。這些都是很好的、廣泛的策略問題。首先，關於我們——我如何看待貸款成長，我想我會指出'23。我們的資產負債表的資產部分增加了3%。顯然，考慮到我們的規模，我們在某種程度上與經濟的健康息息相關。我的想法是，考慮到我們業務的規模，無論是商業業務還是抵押貸款業務，我們都應以高於市場的速度成長為目標。我想，我們多年來在兩項業務中已經證明，我們已經成功地發展了資產方面的業務。正如我所提到的，在貸款成長的某些方面，我們的持股比例相對於市場而言偏低。我們之前討論過無擔保問題。我們仍然只是第二大抵押貸款提供者，因此還有成長機會，但最終我們是面向英國經濟的。關於您提到的需求與供應，從供應問題來看，我們有可用資本。我們非常希望將其付諸實踐，只要它能為我們所有的業務帶來適當的回報，無論是我們的私人銀行，當然也包括貸款，我們的零售銀行還是我們的公司銀行。這就是我的想法。我認為這是 — — 這是一個廣義的 — — 整體情況。

But if you take -- sorry. Just if you take nominal GDP last year, it was probably up 6%, 7%, something like that, so you're effectively growing at sub-nominal GDP. Is that how we should think -- I mean, is that a sort of sense of your conservatism? Or are the two just not really related at all?

但如果你接受——抱歉。僅就去年的名目 GDP 而言，它可能成長了 6%、7% 左右，因此實際上是以低於名目 GDP 的速度成長。我們該這樣想嗎──我的意思是，這是不是你的一種保守主義觀念？或者這兩者根本沒有任何關係？

Yes. Well, I think there's a couple of things going on there. Obviously we've seen -- given the high interest rate environment, we -- as you all know, we've seen pay down of borrowing as well, whether that's in the retail bank, in terms of customers paying down mortgages, whether that's in government lending schemes and in the commercial business. I think, as rates come down, the inclination to either want to pay down or have to pay down will slow. And so that's how we think about it. So we've delivered growth despite there being a lot of, in effect, deleveraging by customers across all of our customer businesses, especially (inaudible) in private.

是的。嗯，我認為那裡發生了幾件事。顯然，我們已經看到——鑑於高利率環境，我們——眾所周知，我們已經看到借款償還減少，無論是在零售銀行，還是在客戶償還抵押貸款方面，無論是在政府貸款計劃還是在商業業務中。我認為，隨著利率下降，想要償還或必須償還的傾向將會減緩。這就是我們的想法。因此，儘管我們所有客戶業務（尤其是私人業務）的客戶實際上都在大量去槓桿，但我們仍然實現了成長。

On your second question, which I guess is a very broad question. We're very happy with our retail bank. The leadership team we have there over the last couple of years have built a very actually digitally enabled retail business. We have a market-leading mobile platform. We support that with our branch network. As you know, the returns are healthy, which is what you alluded to. And I think we've proven over the course of the -- I guess, the last couple of years that we've managed certainly over the course of the last 6, 9 months, we've certainly managed to react in terms of our product range, our pricing, whether it's on -- you alluded to some deposit pricing and our ability to compete. I think we have a very competitive range across different terms, different products, et cetera, likewise on mortgages. So I think the retail bank is in good health. We're continuing to invest in it. I'm very focused on cost. You mentioned that, but that isn't a particular focus for retail. It's across the whole business. I'm very keen that we have good cost discipline. We have good cost management, but also we invest in the business to drive those productivities and efficiencies out. So what I'd say in summary is I think we've got a retail -- we've got a good retail bank. There are areas in which that bank could grow. We'll obviously work on productivity and efficiency, but we'll do that at a bank-wide level, not just in our retail bank. Thanks, Ed.

關於你的第二個問題，我認為這是一個非常廣泛的問題。我們對我們的零售銀行非常滿意。過去幾年來，我們的領導團隊已經建立了真正數位化的零售業務。我們擁有市場領先的行動平台。我們透過我們的分支網絡支持這一點。正如您所知，回報是健康的，正如您所提到的。我認為，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經證明，在過去的 6 到 9 個月裡，我們確實在產品範圍、定價方面做出了反應，無論是——您提到的一些存款定價和我們的競爭力。我認為我們在不同條款、不同產品等方面具有非常強的競爭力，抵押貸款也是如此。所以我認為零售銀行的狀況良好。我們將繼續對此進行投資。我非常注重成本。您提到了這一點，但這並不是零售業特別關注的重點。它影響整個業務。我非常希望我們有良好的成本紀律。我們有良好的成本管理，同時我們也對業務進行投資，以提高生產力和效率。所以總而言之，我認為我們擁有一家零售銀行——我們擁有一家優秀的零售銀行。該銀行還有一些可以成長的領域。我們顯然會努力提高生產力和效率，但我們會在全行層面上努力，而不僅僅是在我們的零售銀行。謝謝，埃德。

Our next question comes from Chris Cant from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Chris Cant。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

We can, Chris. How are you?

我們可以，克里斯。你好嗎？

Okay, Paul I've avoided the mute issue. I had one on your RoTE aspiration and one on the '24 income guidance, please. So on the 2026 RoTE target, I just wanted to understand a little bit more about what you're assuming here as a denominator. I think this is an area where consensus looks a little bit probably different to how you're thinking about things. So if I look at your disclosures today, you tell us 225 bps of rate cuts. And you've given us a cash flow hedge reserve sensitivity of just over GBP 1 billion per 100 bps, so that alone would knock your cash flow hedge reserve down by over GBP 2 billion. You're then going to have pull-to-par effects on top of that. You're going to have the removal of the IFRS 9 add back on top of that. If I think about your RWA guidance, your CET1 target, you're looking at about a GBP 27 billion CET1 base, which I think would imply, once you allow for those cash flow hedge reserve, movements, both the print today and the future sensitivity, probably for a TNAV in 2026 of about GBP 31 billion. And I think consensus is quite a lot lower than that, around 27-something or rather to 26 on average, so is that math right? Because I think what that's telling me is, if you think you can do a 13% RoTE on that meaningfully higher TNAV base, it's about a GBP 4 billion net profit number, but it really comes down to that TNAV piece. And to your point, Katie, RoTE is you North Star, but it's impacted by this math around the cash flow hedge reserve, which doesn't appear to be factored into consensus, so I was just wondering if you could speak to that. Is that math the right way we should be thinking about it? Is that kind of GBP 31 billion peak at the right sort of level for the denominator, in your view based on your rate assumptions? And obviously we make our own.

好的，保羅，我已經避開靜音問題了。我有一份關於您的 RoTE 願望的，還有一份關於 '24 收入指導的。因此，關於 2026 年 RoTE 目標，我只是想更多地了解您在這裡假設的分母。我認為在這個領域中的共識可能與您思考事物的方式略有不同。因此，如果我查看您今天的披露信息，您告訴我們降息 225 個基點。而您給我們的現金流對沖儲備敏感度為每 100 個基點略高於 10 億英鎊，因此，僅此一項就會使您的現金流對沖儲備減少 20 多億英鎊。然後，您就會在此基礎上獲得同等效果。您將刪除 IFRS 9 並將其加回。如果我考慮您的 RWA 指導，您的 CET1 目標，您會看到大約 270 億英鎊的 CET1 基數，我認為這意味著，一旦您考慮到那些現金流對沖儲備、變動，包括今天的印刷量和未來的敏感性，2026 年的 TNAV 可能約為 310 億英鎊。我認為共識比這低很多，大約是 27 多，或者平均是 26，那麼這個計算對嗎？因為我認為這告訴我的是，如果你認為你可以在顯著更高的 TNAV 基礎上實現 13% 的 RoTE，那麼淨利潤數字就約為 40 億英鎊，但這實際上取決於 TNAV 部分。正如你所說，凱蒂，RoTE 是你的北極星，但它受到現金流對沖儲備的數學影響，這似乎沒有被考慮到共識中，所以我只是想知道你是否可以談談這個問題。我們應該以這樣的數學方式來思考這個問題嗎？根據您的利率假設，您認為 310 億英鎊的峰值是否處於分母的正確水平？顯然我們自己也做。

And then on the 2024 guidance, just in terms of the comment around income being better in the second half than the first half. So I understand the argument around sort of deposit mix stabilizing and then we start to see more of a net tailwind from the hedge. The hedge starts to overpower the other forces, but in terms of your rate cut assumptions, you said 5 cuts starting from May. But I guess your rate cuts are back-end loaded in the year. And I presume you're assuming within the guidance some negative pricing lag effects. i.e., there is that limitation for, say, 6 weeks on the actual pass-through to customers. And all of that negativity is then baked into your second half income guidance. So I just wanted to try to square the circle there. How is it that, with all of that repricing lag effect, you still end up with income up in the second half?

然後關於 2024 年的指引，只是就下半年收入將好於上半年的評論而言。因此，我理解有關存款組合穩定的爭論，然後我們開始看到對沖帶來的更多淨順風。對沖的力量開始壓倒其他力量，但就您的降息假設而言，您說從 5 月開始將降息 5 次。但我猜你們的降息是在今年後期實施的。我推測您在指導中假設了一些負面的定價滯後效應。也就是說，實際轉交給客戶的時間有 6 週的限制。所有這些負面因素都會被反映到你下半年的收入預期。所以我只是想嘗試解決這個問題。為什麼在所有這些重新定價滯後效應的情況下，下半年的收入仍然會增加？

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Thanks very much, Chris. So look. I mean, Chris, you're absolutely right. I'd -- and I'd probably encourage you, as you're already there, but also others to kind of look at the denominator piece. I think it's important for us. It's been great to see the growth that we've got within the denominator this year as we saw the GBP 25.7 billion at the end of 2023. Chris, I'm not going to give you a profit guide for 2026 as we go through there, but I think you've got the various component parts. That cash flow hedge will unwind as we go through. Rates have been volatile. So it would be linear. I think, if you looked at what happened in rates just in the first part of this year and if I was to cut the numbers now, you'd actually see it reverse a little bit in the other direction, but overall with our rate assumptions, we'll definitely see that continue to come down. And that's important for us. So if you look at the TNAV, think of the profits. Think of the movement on the cash flow hedge. There are some other movements on some other reserves, but those are the 2 important ones. And then obviously deduct distributions. And then I think that will get you to a better kind of view on TNAV. And I think we need to kind of catch up a little bit on that. As I look to the income guidance, so second half better than first half. There are 5 cuts, starting in May. There's -- we have considered within those timing lags as to how long it takes to from the cuts. If you were to make the decision at that point how long it will take you to go through. Clearly the absolute time when we make decisions on pass-through will be dependent on what's happening in terms of competition and customer behavior. That's part of the reason we gave you a range for income for the full year's. We -- but we have kind of looked to consider that within the income guidance.

非常感謝，克里斯。那麼看一下。我的意思是，克里斯，你完全正確。我會 — — 而且我可能會鼓勵你，因為你已經在那裡了，但其他人也應該看看分母部分。我認為這對我們很重要。我們很高興看到今年分母的成長，因為我們在 2023 年底看到了 257 億英鎊的成長。隨著我們的進展，現金流對沖將會解除。利率一直不穩定。所以它是線性的。我認為，如果您看一下今年上半年利率的變化情況，如果我現在削減數字，您實際上會看到它在另一個方向上稍微逆轉了一下，但總體而言，根據我們的利率假設，我們肯定會看到它繼續下降。這對我們很重要。因此，如果你看一下 TNAV，想想利潤。考慮一下現金流對沖的變動。其他一些保護區也有一些動向，但其中最重要的兩個是。然後顯然扣除分配。然後我認為這會讓你對 TNAV 有更好的了解。我認為我們需要在這方面稍微趕上一點。當我看收入指引時，下半年會比上半年好。從 5 月開始，共有 5 次削減。我們已經考慮過這些時間滯後以及削減需要多長時間。如果您在那時做出決定，那麼您需要花多長時間才能完成。顯然，我們做出傳遞決策的絕對時間將取決於競爭和客戶行為的情況。這就是我們為您提供全年收入範圍的原因之一。我們 — — 但我們已經在收入指引中考慮過這個問題。

And then I think, the other thing that just remember, when we spoke about it earlier, so I won't repeat it all, but in terms of the structural hedge, just the differential in that level of reinvestment. We are assuming that there is reinvestment despite the hedge kind of will shrink over the year. We get to deposit stability by the middle of the year. So from the middle of the year, onwards, you're -- you would start to see fuller reinvestment, not full, because of the 12-month look-back, but that helps the second half to be stronger than the first half. Hope that is helpful to you, Chris. Thanks very much.

然後我想，另一件事要記住，當我們之前談論它時，所以我不會重複所有內容，但就結構性對沖而言，只是該水平再投資的差異。我們假設，儘管對沖規模在今年會縮減，但仍有再投資。到年中時我們將實現存款穩定。因此，從年中開始，您將開始看到更充分的再投資，雖然不是全部，但這是出於 12 個月的回顧，但這有助於下半年比上半年更強勁。希望這對你有幫助，克里斯。非常感謝。

That's helpful. Just on that TNAV point, and I appreciate you don't want to give us a profit number. When I look at consensus, the gap between consensus CET1 and TNAV in 2026 is about GBP 0.5 billion. Your gap as of the end of 2023 is GBP 1.2 billion. And from what you're saying, that gap should materially widen, subject to exactly what happens with rate, but we should be expecting a much more meaningful gap between TNAV and CET1 in the outer years than we see today, presumably.

這很有幫助。僅就 TNAV 點而言，我很感激您不想給我們一個利潤數字。當我看共識時，共識 CET1 和 2026 年 TNAV 之間的差距約為 5 億英鎊。截至 2023 年底，您的缺口為 12 億英鎊。從您所說的情況來看，這一差距應該會大幅擴大，具體取決於利率的具體變化，但我們應該預計，未來幾年 TNAV 和 CET1 之間的差距會比今天看到的更大。

I mean I think we gave you a really good disclosure on that capital-to-TNAV reconciliation. It's on Page 375 of the accounts. You might not have got there yet this morning. And what I always find, if you look at it over a few years, you can see which numbers present a little bit of volatility within that number. So I'm not going to be precise on the gap at the moment, but I think you've got the component parts within there. And that reconciliation over a multiyear basis does give you some helpful views into the evolution of TNAV. Thanks, Chris.

我的意思是，我認為我們在資本與 TNAV 調節方面為您提供了非常好的揭露。它在賬目第 375 頁。今天早上你可能還沒到那裡。我總是發現，如果你回顧幾年，你會發現哪些數字在那個數字中表現出了一點波動。因此我現在無法精確地說明差距，但我認為已經掌握了其中的各個組成部分。而這種多年的協調確實為您提供了一些有關 TNAV 演進的有益見解。謝謝，克里斯。

Thanks, Chris. We look forward to discussing Page 375 with you.

謝謝，克里斯。我們期待與您討論第 375 頁。

Our next question comes from Robin Down of HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的羅賓唐 (Robin Down)。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can.

是的，我們可以。

Okay, great, excellent. I've also avoided the mute issue. A couple of kind of linked questions. And actually it slightly builds on a bit of what Chris was saying there. You've given us this 25 basis point sensitivity, which is quite helpful, on Slide 17. But I'm just conscious. Obviously we're looking at a series of rate cuts. I'm just wondering whether you could perhaps talk about what the impact might be of, say, a 100 basis point rate cut. I assume we don't just kind of multiply it by 4 here. I know we can do the structural hedge side, but it's the managed margin side. I'm conscious you've got (inaudible) savings account that pays 175. And I guess, the lower rates go, the harder it is to pass-through. And the reason why I'm kind of interested in that is just thinking about the dynamic going into 2025. I appreciate kind of volumes will, hopefully, pick up as interest rates fall, but if I think about the kind of structural hedge, I'm guessing we're going to be looking at probably low to mid-30s billions of rollovers in 2025 with, say, a spot rate of 3% and a maturity rate of 50 basis points. But going the other way, if you build a string of interest rate cuts and you're telling us 25 basis points today is GBP 125 million in year 1, I'm just kind of curious as to how you think those two kind of interplay going into 2025. And when we look at consensus revenues, I think we're up at that kind of 14.2 for '25, so -- obviously there'll be some volume growth there that will help out, but perhaps whether you're comfortable with that 14.2.

好的，很好，非常好。我也避免了靜音問題。幾個相關的問題。實際上，它稍微建立在克里斯所說的內容之上。您在幻燈片 17 上給了我們這個 25 個基點的敏感度，這非常有幫助。顯然，我們正在考慮一系列降息。我只是想知道您是否可以談談降息 100 個基點可能產生的影響。我認為我們不能只是將其乘以 4。我知道我們可以做結構性對沖，但這是管理保證金。我知道你有一個（聽不清楚）儲蓄帳戶，支付 175 美元。我對此感興趣的原因只是在思考 2025 年的動態。但從另一個角度來看，如果您連續降息，並告訴我們今天的 25 個基點在第一年將帶來 1.25 億英鎊的收入，我只是有點好奇，您認為這兩種相互作用會如何發展到 2025 年。 當我們查看共識收入時，我認為我們在 25 年的收入將達到 14.2，因此，這將有一些銷售收入時，我認為我們是否有助於您對數字

Yes. Thanks so much. Look. In terms of the 100 basis points, it's relatively linear. And I think, if you go to Page 267 of the accounts, you'll actually see that I've given you the 100 basis points disclosure.

是的。非常感謝。看。就 100 個基點而言，它是相對線性的。我認為，如果您查看帳目第 267 頁，您會發現我已經向您提供了 100 個基點的揭露。

I didn't quite get that far. Sorry.

我還沒走那麼遠。對不起。

No, no. It's all right. I must -- I've got the cheat list for where the pace that you guys will go, but you can work out through there. So that will be helpful. So I think it's Page 267 in terms of and I think that will kind of give you what you need on that point. And then just sorry, Robin. I'm not entirely sure of the second bit of the question that you're actually asking me to kind of confirm, but I think that -- or if you look at Slide 15, it will help a little bit with the interplay of what's hedged and unhedged. What we've given you there this morning is just to try to kind of give you a flavor of what happens in term, which is obviously the tightest. What's unhedged? And then what's supporting the product structural hedge? And as you see that migration continue, you'll see that -- you'll see those balances move a little bit more to the term hedge. And then you need to take a view whether that's coming out of our unhedged kind of instant access or out of the current account piece as we go through from there. So what happens in terms of different rate cuts, but I would say we have seen it slow. We do expect it to continue but not at the speeds that we saw in the previous year.

不，不。沒關係。我必須——我有一份關於你們將要走的步伐的備忘單，但你可以通過那裡來鍛煉。這將會很有幫助。因此我認為就這一點而言它是第 267 頁並且我認為這將為您提供您所需的資訊。然後我很抱歉，羅賓。我並不完全確定您實際上要求我確認的問題的第二部分，但我認為 - 或者如果您看幻燈片 15，它將對對沖和不對沖的相互作用有一點幫助。我們今天早上給您的訊息只是為了讓您大致了解一下這個學期的情況，這顯然是最緊張的。什麼沒有對沖？那麼，是什麼支撐了產品結構對沖呢？當你看到這種遷移持續時，你會看到——你會看到這些餘額稍微轉向定期對沖。然後您需要考慮這是否來自於我們的無對沖即時訪問，還是來自於我們從那裡開始的經常帳戶部分。那麼，就不同的降息方式而言，情況會如何呢？我們確實預計這種趨勢會持續下去，但速度不會像去年那麼快。

I think my point was more that if we're looking at, say, GBP 35 billion of maturities in 2025. And I appreciate this is kind of we have to think about quarterly rates here.

我認為我的觀點是，如果我們考慮 2025 年到期的 350 億英鎊債券。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

And you're going at 250 basis point kind of uplift on that then we can kind of do the math on that. And how that then interplays, though, with average base rates and '25 being more than 100 basis points lower than where they are in 2024? I mean it's -- actually, it's a question of almost like where you think the margin goes in '25.

如果你將其提升 250 個基點，那麼我們就可以對此進行計算。那麼，這與平均基準利率和'25 年相比會如何相互影響，比 2024 年的水平低 100 多個基點？我的意思是 - 實際上，這幾乎就像你認為 25 年的利潤率會達到什麼程度的問題。

Yes. So I think I'm not going to give you the margin. What I would say is that we expect it to behave the same way we described income. But we do have confidence in the income growth over the medium term. We -- I said earlier in the call that we're kind of expecting the reinvestment levels to be about 310 basis points. I'd expect them to be a little bit lower in 2025 but not meaningfully, but then similarly, we've talked in the past around the 80 bps roll-off kind of becomes 50 bps. I'm not going to get into the pay fixed kind of debate, but I mentioned that earlier as well. So that suppresses those numbers a piece a little bit. And that's why we have confidence in the income growth over the medium term as we see those deposits stabilize.

是的。所以我想我不會給你餘地。我想說的是，我們預期它的表現方式與我們描述收入的方式相同。但我們對中期收入成長確實有信心。我們 — — 我之前在電話會議上說過，我們預計再投資水準約為 310 個基點。我預計到 2025 年利率會略低一些，但不會特別低，但同樣地，我們過去也討論過 80 個基點的利率下降會變成 50 個基點。我不想參與關於固定工資的爭論，但我之前也提到過這一點。這樣就稍微抑制了這些數字。這就是為什麼我們對中期收入成長充滿信心，因為我們看到這些存款趨於穩定。

Our last question comes from Jason Napier of UBS.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀的傑森·納皮爾。

Two, please. Paul, clearly a lot of focus from you on cost efficiency within the business. I wonder whether you might give us some more details perhaps on 2023 just in terms of expenditure on restructuring, the big moving parts and the performance that you've turned in last year. Just some of the feedback this morning is flat may be good enough for 1 year, but the organization in this kind of operating climate can't hold close to that on a sustained basis. Perhaps you could talk about how you did what you did last year and then how you feel around what run rate cost growth ought to be for NatWest going forward.

請給我兩份。保羅，顯然你非常重視企業的成本效率。我想知道您是否可以提供一些有關 2023 年的更多細節，包括重組支出、重大活動部件以及您去年的業績。今天早上的一些回饋可能比較平淡，但對於一年來說可能還不錯，但處於這種營運環境中的組織無法持續保持這種狀態。或許您可以談談您去年的表現，以及您認為未來 NatWest 銀行的運行率成本增長應該是多少。

And then secondly, perhaps for Katie as well as Paul, some conversations in the prepared remarks this morning about a more active stance on capital management, securitization and risk transfer and so on. I don't think there's a change in the outlook for RWAs in 2025. And I think we're still being told that it's linear. Perhaps you could talk a little bit about what that does for NatWest. Presumably, in this year in particular, there's a need to want to be able to do share buybacks in the market and public offer flowback and so on. If you can just talk about whether this active balance sheet management changes much in the very near term, for the availability of excess capital.

其次，也許對於凱蒂和保羅來說，今天早上準備好的演講中談到了對資本管理、證券化和風險轉移等採取更積極的立場。我認為 2025 年 RWA 的前景不會改變。也許您可以稍微談談這對 NatWest 有何影響。想必今年尤其需要能夠在市場上進行股票回購、公開發行回流等等。您能否談談這種積極的資產負債表管理在短期內是否會發生很大變化，以獲得過剩資本。

Thanks, Jason. Why don't -- I'll take costs, Katie. And then maybe come back to Basel 3 and RWA trajectory.

謝謝，傑森。為什麼不——我來承擔費用，凱蒂。然後也許會回到巴塞爾協議 3 和 RWA 軌跡。

Sure.

當然。

So Jason, on costs, we're only guiding for '24, which is broadly stable. Within that, we have restructuring costs built in. So then I guess it's pretty easy to conclude that, to stay broadly flat, we're going to work pretty hard to mitigate the impacts of both wage inflation and general contract inflation. So we're very focused on mitigating any cost increases. I'd like to take those costs in year, so no broader restructuring charge. So we've built in a higher level of restructuring charges in '24 than we used in '23, just to directionally give you a sense of that. Overall I do see big opportunities in respect of bank-wide simplification within the bank. You'll have seen that in the slides. I think there's a lot to do, a lot that we can do to make our bank easier for customers to do business with us but also improve productivity for our colleagues. I talked in October how I'd reshape the investment spend around some key projects to deliver more digitization and automation. That obviously plays through in terms of efficiency. We also have opportunities in terms of consolidation of some of our tech platforms as well. So we're gripping cost as a management team. We want to take the charges in year. That's what we've done in '23. That's what we'll do in '24. We are very focused on the glide path and mitigating any of the natural inflationary aspects that there are. Thanks.

所以 Jason，就成本而言，我們只預測 24 年的成本大致穩定。其中，我們已經計入了重組成本。因此，我們非常注重減輕任何成本增加。我希望在年內承擔這些成本，這樣就不需要更大的重組費用。因此，我們在 24 年設立了比 23 年更高的重組費用，只是為了讓您對此有個大致了解。總的來說，我確實看到了銀行內部在全面簡化方面的巨大機會。您將在幻燈片中看到這一點。我認為我們還有很多事情要做，可以做很多事情來讓我們的銀行更方便客戶與我們做生意，同時也提高同事的工作效率。我在十月談到如何重塑一些關鍵項目的投資支出，以實現更多的數位化和自動化。這顯然會提高效率。我們也有機會整合一些技術平台。因此，作為管理團隊，我們正在控製成本。我們希望在年內收取費用。這就是我們在23年所做的事情。這就是我們在24年要做的事。我們非常關注下滑路徑並減輕任何存在的自然通膨因素。謝謝。

Perfect. Basel 3.1 and RWA. So I mean, Jason, you're absolutely right. I would take the GBP 200 billion guidance we've given you to the end of 2025 as linear from here, remembering that it can be lumpy. You know in RWAs there's many, many different moving parts. We're very disciplined on how we allow the businesses to use it and then also how we then manage it as we go through. So we will look at things like SRTs, the origination of lending that we've got at the -- at any point and just to make sure we're getting the right return for those, the investment we're making in our RWAs allocation. But if you go linear from here, you'll get to the right place on -- in terms of the numbers, I think, as we roll through.

完美的。巴塞爾協議 3.1 和 RWA。所以我的意思是，傑森，你完全正確。我會將我們給您提供的到 2025 年底的 2000 億英鎊的指導金額從現在開始視為線性的，但請記住它可能會是不穩定的。您知道，在 RWA 中有許多不同的活動部件。我們對如何允許企業使用它以及如何在流程中對其進行管理非常嚴格。因此，我們將隨時關注 SRT 等貸款來源，以確保我們能獲得正確的回報，以及我們在 RWA 分配中所做的投資。但是如果你從這裡開始線性發展，你就會到達正確的位置 - 就數字而言，我想，隨著我們的推進。

That concludes the Q&A section. I will now hand back to Paul for closing comments.

問答部分到此結束。現在我將把發言交還給保羅，請他作最後評論。

Okay, thank you, everybody. Thank you for joining, Katie, Howard and myself appreciate it.

好的，謝謝大家。謝謝您的加入，凱蒂、霍華德和我對此表示感謝。

I hope you'll agree we've laid out a good, strong performance for 2023. I'm delighted to be confirmed in role today. And hopefully, you've got the sense I'm very focused on driving the performance and returns of NatWest, but before we sign off, I do also want to thank Howard for his commitment at NatWest and his invaluable contributions as Chair. I know this will be the last time you join the analyst call.

我希望你們會同意我們為 2023 年制定了良好、強勁的表現。希望您能感覺到，我非常專注於推動 NatWest 的業績和回報，但在我們結束之前，我也想感謝霍華德對 NatWest 的承諾以及他作為主席所做的寶貴貢獻。我知道這將是你最後一次參加分析師電話會議。

I know many of you on the call know Howard very well and have spent a lot of time with him over the course of his tenure, so I guess I'll take the liberty of thanking him on your behalf for that. And we'll build on these strong foundations to deliver the very best we can for our customers and our shareholders moving forward.

我知道電話會議中的許多人都非常了解霍華德，並且在他任職期間與他共度了很長時間，因此我想我應該代表你們向他表示感謝。我們將在此堅實的基礎上，竭盡全力為我們的客戶和股東提供最好的服務。

So have a good Friday, everybody. Thank you.

祝大家週五愉快。謝謝。

Thank you, Paul. That concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你，保羅。今天的演講到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。