NatWest Group PLC (NWG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the NatWest Group Q3 results 2024 management presentation. Today's presentation will be hosted by CEO, Paul Thwaite; and CFO, Katie Murray. After the presentation, we will take questions.

早安，歡迎參加 NatWest Group 2024 年第三季業績管理展示。今天的演講將由執行長 Paul Thwaite 主持；和財務長凱蒂·莫瑞（Katie Murray）。演示結束後，我們將回答問題。

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I'll start with a brief introduction before Katie takes you through the financial performance and then we'll open it up for questions.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。在凱蒂向您介紹財務表現之前，我將先做一個簡短的介紹，然後我們將開始提問。

You will have seen that we are upgrading our full year income and returns guidance this morning as we continue to make good progress on our three strategic priorities, discipline growth, bank wide simplification, together with active balance sheet and risk management.

大家會看到，我們今天早上上調了全年收入和回報預期，因為我們在三大戰略重點、紀律性增長、全行簡化以及積極的資產負債表和風險管理方面繼續取得良好進展。

This progress together with our ongoing support of customers is reflected in our performance. So let's turn to the financial headlines for the first nine months of the year.

這項進步以及我們對客戶的持續支持體現在我們的業績上。讓我們來看看今年前九個月的財經頭條。

Healthy levels of customer activity continue on both sides of the balance sheet. Customer lending growth of GBP8.1 billion to GBP367 billion was broad based. In commercial and institutional, this was driven by both our large corporate and commercial mid-market customers, including lending to the social housing sector.

資產負債表的兩邊都持續保持健康的客戶活動水準。客戶貸款增加 81 億英鎊至 3,670 億英鎊，基礎廣泛。在商業和機構領域，這是由我們的大型企業和商業中端市場客戶推動的，包括向社會住宅部門提供貸款。

We provided GBP23.5 billion of climate and sustainable funding and financing, bringing the total to GBP85.4 billion since July 2021 in reach of our GBP100 billion 2025 target. Our existing mortgage book returned to growth in the third quarter as volumes and margins improved during the year, making returns more attractive.

我們提供了 235 億英鎊的氣候和永續資金和融資，自 2021 年 7 月以來總額達到 854 億英鎊，實現了 2025 年 1000 億英鎊的目標。由於年內交易量和利潤率的提高，我們現有的抵押貸款帳簿在第三季度恢復成長，使回報更具吸引力。

The acquisition of a GBP2.3 billion prime residential mortgage portfolio from Metro Bank completed last month and is included in these numbers. In addition, we grew our share in credit cards from 8.5% to 9.3%.

上個月，該公司完成了從大都會銀行 (Metro Bank) 收購價值 23 億英鎊的優質住宅抵押貸款組合的交易，並將其包含在這些數字中。此外，我們的信用卡份額從 8.5% 增長到 9.3%。

On the other side of the balance sheet, customer deposits increased by GBP8.3 billion to GBP427 billion, with growth across all three of our businesses, and migration to term deposits continuing to slow.

在資產負債表的另一邊，客戶存款增加了 83 億英鎊，達到 4,270 億英鎊，我們的三項業務均實現成長，而定期存款的遷移速度繼續放緩。

In our private bank, assets under management increased by GBP5.7 billion to GBP46.5 billion including GBP2.2 billion of net new inflows. This activity clearly underpins our financial performance.

在我們的私人銀行，管理的資產增加了 57 億英鎊，達到 465 億英鎊，其中包括 22 億英鎊的淨新流入。這項活動顯然支撐了我們的財務表現。

We generated income of GBP10.8 billion for the first nine months. Costs were GBP5.7 billion, and we remain on track to meet our full year guidance. Together, this resulted in operating profit of GBP4.7 billion and attributable profit of GBP3.3 billion. Return on tangible equity was 17%.

前九個月，我們的收入為108億英鎊。成本為 57 億英鎊，我們仍有望實現全年目標。合計實現營業利潤47億英鎊，應占利潤33億英鎊。有形資產報酬率為17%。

Our strong capital generation allows us to continue supporting our customers, investing in the business, and making distributions to shareholders. We generated 197 basis points of capital in the first nine months through strong earnings and actively managing our risk weighted assets.

我們強大的資本創造能力使我們能夠繼續支持我們的客戶、投資於業務並向股東分配利潤。透過強勁的獲利和積極管理風險加權資產，我們在前九個月產生了 197 個基點的資本。

Our CET1 ratio of 13.9% includes an accrual for final dividends in line with our ordinary payout ratio of around 40%. Strong earnings together with a lower share count have increased tangible net asset value per share to 316p. Earnings per share were 38p, up 12% year on year.

我們的 CET1 比率為 13.9%，其中包括計提的末期股息，與我們約 40% 的普通派息率一致。強勁的獲利加上較低的股票數量使每股有形淨資產價值增加至 316 便士。每股收益為38便士，年增12%。

We'll also be aware that the government has reduced its shareholding from 38% at the start of the year to under 16%, in line with their stated intention to exit fully by 2025, '26.

我們也注意到，政府已將其持股比例從今年年初的 38% 削減至 16% 以下，這符合其在 2025 年或 2026 年完全退出的既定意圖。

With that, I'll now hand over to Katie.

現在我將發言權交給凱蒂。

Thank you, Paul. I'll comment on the third quarter using the second quarter as a comparator. Income excluding all notable items increased 5.1% to GBP3.8 billion. Operating expenses were 9% lower at GBP1.8 billion, mainly reflecting lower severance and other staff costs. And there was an impairment charge of GBP245 million or 25 basis points of loans.

謝謝你，保羅。我將以第二季為比較對象來評論第三季的情況。扣除所有重要項目的收入成長 5.1% 至 38 億英鎊。營業費用下降 9% 至 18 億英鎊，主要反映遣散費和其他員工成本的下降。並且有2.45億英鎊的減損費用或25個基點的貸款。

Together, this delivered operating profit before tax of GBP1.7 billion. Profit attributed to ordinary shareholders was GBP1.2 billion, and return on tangible equity was 18.3%.

總計稅前營業利潤達17億英鎊。歸屬於普通股股東的利潤為12億英鎊，有形資產回報率為18.3%。

Turning now to income. Income excluding notable items of GBP3.8 billion was up 5.1%, with growth in both net interest income and non-interest income. Across the three businesses excluding the benefit of an extra day in the quarter, income grew by GBP206 million.

現在談談收入。扣除重要項目的收入為38億英鎊，成長5.1%，其中淨利息收入和非利息收入均有所增加。除本季額外一天的福利外，三項業務的收入增加了 2.06 億英鎊。

All three businesses delivered higher net interest income. Balance sheet growth was supported by margin expansion as tailwinds from the product structural hedge and treasury, more than offset the impacts of the first base rate cut.

上述三項業務均實現了更高的淨利息收入。由於產品結構對沖和國債的利好抵消了首次基本利率下調的影響，資產負債表的成長得到了利潤率擴張的支撐。

Group net interest margin increased 8 basis points to 218 basis points, with the expansion across deposits funding and other. Growth in non-interest income was driven by commercial and institutional, reflecting continued strong lending and payment fees as well as foreign exchange.

集團淨利差增加8個基點至218個基點，因存款融資及其他業務的擴張。非利息收入的成長主要由商業和機構業務推動，反映出持續強勁的貸款和支付費用以及外匯收入。

The first cut was in line with our expectations, and we continue to assume rates will fall further in the fourth quarter, reaching 4.75% by the end of the year, with the further five cuts in 2025 to 3.5%. Of course, the actual outcome may differ from this assumption.

首次降息符合我們的預期，我們繼續預期利率將在第四季進一步下降，到年底達到 4.75%，並在 2025 年進一步降息五次，至 3.5%。當然，實際結果可能與這個假設不同。

We are pleased with the year-to-date income of GBP10.8 billion, reflecting a strong performance across the balance sheet. As a result, we now expect 2024 total income excluding notable items to be around GBP14.4 billion. And we are upgrading our 2024 return on tangible equity guidance to greater than 15%.

我們對今年迄今為止 108 億英鎊的收入感到滿意，這反映出整個資產負債表的強勁表現。因此，我們現在預計 2024 年不包括顯著項目的總收入約為 144 億英鎊。我們將 2024 年有形股權回報率預期上調至 15% 以上。

Moving now to lending. We continue to be disciplined in our approach and to focus on deploying capital where returns are attractive. Lending growth was broad based across our businesses, gross loans to customers increased by GBP8.6 billion or 2.4% to GBP367.2 billion.

現在轉向貸款。我們將繼續嚴守自身做法，專注於在回報有吸引力的領域部署資本。我們各項業務的貸款均廣泛成長，客戶總貸款增加了 86 億英鎊，增幅為 2.4%，達到 3,672 億英鎊。

Taking retail and private banking together, our mortgage book returned to growth as expected with balances up by GBP3.8 billion, supported by a higher gross in year lending, and the addition of a GBP2.3 billion mortgage book from Metro Bank at the end of September.

綜合考慮零售和私人銀行業務，我們的抵押貸款帳簿如預期恢復增長，餘額增加了 38 億英鎊，這得益於年內貸款總額的增加，以及 9 月底大都會銀行 (Metro Bank) 增加了 23 億英鎊的抵押貸款賬簿。

We continue to grow our share of unsecured lending and balances increased by GBP500 million to GBP16.6 billion across both credit cards and personal lending.

我們繼續增加無擔保貸款的份額，信用卡和個人貸款餘額增加了 5 億英鎊，達到 166 億英鎊。

Within commercial and institutional, lending to mid-market customers grew by GBP1.5 billion, driven by increased term lending. There was also strong growth of GBP3.2 billion in corporate institutions, including demand for supply chain finance and sustainable finance.

在商業和機構領域，由於定期貸款增加，對中型市場客戶的貸款增加了 15 億英鎊。企業機構的需求也強勁成長，達到32億英鎊，包括對供應鏈金融和永續金融的需求。

I'll turn now to deposits. Deposits increased by GBP2.2 billion to GBP427 billion, with growth across all three businesses. In retail banking, there was strong growth in savings driven by instant access products and variable rate access.

現在我來談談存款。存款增加了 22 億英鎊，達到 4,270 億英鎊，三項業務都成長。在零售銀行業務方面，受即時存取產品和浮動利率存取的推動，儲蓄強勁增長。

In private banking, there was also good demand for instant access savings. In commercial and institutional, deposits grew across both commercial mid-market and business banking customers. Migration from non-interest bearing to interest bearing deposits continued at a slow pace as expected. And there was no material change in customer behavior following the first base rate cut.

在私人銀行業務中，即時儲蓄的需求也很高。在商業和機構領域，商業中型市場和企業銀行客戶的存款均有所成長。正如預期的那樣，從無息存款向有息存款的轉變繼續緩慢進行。首次基本利率下調後，客戶行為並沒有重大變化。

Non-interest bearing balances remained at 32% of the total, and term accounts remained at around 17%. The average rate of interest we pay on our customer deposit funding has remained flat, reflecting the lag effect on pass through and small changes in mix.

無息餘額仍佔總額的 32%，定期帳戶仍佔 17% 左右。我們為客戶存款融資支付的平均利率保持不變，反映了傳遞的滯後效應和組合的微小變化。

Turning now to costs. We remain on track for other operating expenses to be broadly stable with 2023, yet the full year, excluding the increase in bank levies of around GBP100 million and costs associated with the retail share offering.

現在談談成本。我們仍有望使 2023 年及全年的其他營運支出大致保持穩定，但不包括約 1 億英鎊的銀行稅增加和與零售股票發行相關的成本。

Other operating expenses of GBP1.8 billion for the third quarter were 7.5% lower than the second, mainly as a result of lower severance and other staff costs. You will remember that severance and property exit costs were elevated in the first half, as we accelerated our work on simplification, including our announced exit from Poland.

第三季的其他營運支出為18億英鎊，比第二季下降7.5%，主要由於遣散費和其他員工成本下降。您會記得，由於我們加快了簡化工作，包括宣布退出波蘭，上半年遣散費和財產退出成本有所上升。

Other operating expenses for the first nine months were up 0.7%, excluding bank levies and the retail share offer costs. As we look ahead to the fourth quarter, other operating expenses are expected to be higher than the same quarter last year, as we expect to incur further severance and property costs as well as a higher bank levy charge of around GBP120 million.

前九個月的其他營運費用（不包括銀行費用和零售股票發行成本）上漲了 0.7%。展望第四季度，其他營運費用預計將高於去年同期，因為我們預計將產生進一步的遣散費和財產成本以及更高的銀行徵收費用約 1.2 億英鎊。

Turning now to impairments. Our diversified prime loan book continues to perform well. We are reporting a net impairment charge of GBP245 million for the third quarter or 25 basis points of loans. This takes the nine month charge to GBP293 million equivalent to 10 basis points.

現在來談談損害。我們的多元化優質貸款持續表現良好。我們報告第三季的淨減損費用為 2.45 億英鎊，或 25 個基點的貸款。這使得九個月的費用達到2.93億英鎊，相當於10個基點。

Key drivers of change from the second quarter are the absence of post-model adjustment releases, together with a single name charge. Our balance sheet provision for expected credit loss still includes GBP299 million of PMAs for economic uncertainty similar to the second quarter.

第二季變化的關鍵驅動因素是缺少模型後調整版本，以及單一名稱費用。我們的資產負債表預期信用損失準備金仍包括與第二季類似的因經濟不確定性而提列的 2.99 億英鎊 PMA。

In retail banking, the third quarter charge of 28 basis points reflects both the absence of a PMA release and unsecured growth, along with a charge of 31 basis points in commercial and institutional. However, we still expect a full year loan impairment rate below 15 basis points.

在零售銀行業務中，第三季 28 個基點的收費反映了 PMA 釋放的缺失和無擔保成長，而商業和機構業務的收費為 31 個基點。不過，我們仍預期全年貸款減損率將低於15個基點。

Turning now to capital. We ended the third quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.9%, up 30 basis points. We generated 57 basis points of capital pre-distributions, driven by attributable profit which added 65 basis points.

現在轉向資本。截至第三季度，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 13.9%，上升了 30 個基點。我們產生了 57 個基點的資本預分配，其中，應占利潤增加了 65 個基點。

RWAs increased by GBP0.9 billion to GBP181.7 billion, consuming 7 basis points of capital. Strong lending growth and the addition of the Metro mortgage portfolio added GBP3.4 billion of RWAs and this was partly offset by a GBP1.3 billion reduction mainly as a result of another significant risk transfer transaction. As usual, we accrued 40% of attributable profits towards our final ordinary dividend.

風險加權資產增加了9億英鎊，達到1817億英鎊，消耗了7個基點的資本。強勁的貸款成長和大都會抵押貸款組合的增加使風險加權資產增加了 34 億英鎊，但這被 13 億英鎊的減少部分抵消，這主要是由於另一項重大風險轉移交易造成的。像往常一樣，我們將 40% 的應占利潤計入末期普通股息。

We are pleased to receive the PRA's policy statement on Basel 3.1, and have spent time digesting this. We estimate this will result in RWA inflation of around GBP8 billion on January 1, 2026, largely driven by the removal of the SME and infrastructure support factors.

我們很高興收到PRA關於巴塞爾協議3.1的政策聲明，並花了一些時間來消化它。我們估計，這將導致 2026 年 1 月 1 日的風險加權資產通膨達到約 80 億英鎊，主要原因是中小企業和基礎設施支援因素的取消。

The outcome of the PRA's Pillar 2 consultation will give us a better understanding of how this RWA inflation will be mitigated as the PRA intends. We continue to expect RWAs of around GBP200 billion at the end of 2025, including the impact of Basel 3.1 on January 1, 2026. And we continue to target a CET1 ratio in the range of 13% to 14%.

PRA 第二支柱諮詢的結果將使我們更了解如何按照 PRA 的意圖緩解 RWA 通膨。我們繼續預期 2025 年底的風險加權資產將達到約 2,000 億英鎊，其中包括 2026 年 1 月 1 日巴塞爾協議 3.1 的影響。我們將繼續把 CET1 比率目標設定在 13% 至 14% 之間。

Turning now to tangible equity per share. Tangible net asset value per share increased 12p to 316p, earnings added 14p, and the unwind of the cash flow hedge reserve added a further 5p as rates came down in the quarter.

現在來談談每股有形權益。每股有形淨資產價值增加 12 便士至 316 便士，收益增加 14 便士，由於本季利率下降，現金流對沖儲備的解除又增加了 5 便士。

This was partly offset by the payment of our interim dividend of 6p. TNAV per share has grown 26% over the last two years, supported by a 14% reduction in share count in that time.

這部分被我們支付的 6 便士中期股息所抵銷。過去兩年來，每股 TNAV 增加了 26%，而同期股份數量則減少了 14%。

Finally, turning to the full year guidance. As I mentioned earlier, we're upgrading our income and returns guidance. And for the full year, we now expect income excluding notable items to be around GBP14.4 billion.

最後，談談全年指引。正如我之前提到的，我們正在上調我們的收入和回報預期。我們目前預計全年不包括重大項目的收入約為 144 億英鎊。

Other operating costs to be broadly stable with 2023, excluding additional bank levies of around GBP100 million, and the retail offer costs of GBP24 million. A loan impairment rate below 15 basis points, and the return on tangible equity greater than 15%.

其他營運成本與 2023 年大致保持穩定，不包括約 1 億英鎊的額外銀行費用和 2,400 萬英鎊的零售報價成本。貸款減損率低於15個基點，有形資產報酬率高於15%。

And with that, I'll hand back to Paul.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交還給保羅。

Thank you Katie. So to conclude, we're pleased with the continuing momentum in the business. As you've heard, we have upgraded our 2024 income and returns guidance today, and we're increasingly confident about the future.

謝謝你，凱蒂。總而言之，我們對業務持續的發展勢頭感到滿意。正如您所聽到的，我們今天上調了 2024 年的收入和回報預期，我們對未來越來越有信心。

As we continue to grow income, control costs, and actively manage both our balance sheet and risk, the business remains well positioned to deliver strong shareholder returns. We'll update you on our guidance for 2025 at the full year in February.

隨著我們繼續增加收入、控製成本並積極管理資產負債表和風險，業務仍然能夠為股東帶來豐厚的回報。我們將在二月向您更新2025年全年業績指引。

Thank you. We'll now open it up for questions.

謝謝。我們現在開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Guy Stebbings, BNP Paribas Exane.

(操作員指示) Guy Stebbings，法國巴黎銀行 Exane。

Hi Guy.

嗨，蓋伊。

Good morning Guy. Are you there?

早上好，蓋伊。你在嗎？

Guy, please unmute. Thank you.

哥們，請取消靜音。謝謝。

Apologies for that. Hopefully you can hear me now.

我對此表示歉意。希望你現在能聽到我的聲音。

We got you now.

我們現在抓住你了。

Brilliant. Sorry about that. The first question was on margins and then I had the second question on NatWest market. So on margin slide 21, deposit spreads were positive again, presume that's the hedge more than compensating for the base rate impact.

傑出的。很抱歉。第一個問題是關於利潤，然後第二個問題是關於 NatWest 市場的。因此，在保證金第 21 次下滑時，存款利差再次為正，推測這是對沖超過了基準利率影響的補償。

But I was wondering if you could perhaps talk a little bit more about the timing of the base rate cut, sort of timing of the past there to help us think about it in future periods. Or perhaps another way to ask it is, is looking at slide 23, where the deposit caps were also pretty flat Q-on-Q, if we're still yet to see sort of the benefit from the August rate cut work through there.

但我想知道您是否可以再多談一點關於基準利率下調的時機，過去的一些時間可以幫助我們思考未來的問題。或者換一種問法，看第 23 張幻燈片，其中存款上限環比也相當平穩，如果我們仍然沒有看到 8 月份降息帶來的好處的話。

And then on the funding and other line, all basis points positive this quarter, feels like quite a hard one to model from the outside. So just any help there as to how to think about that into future periods.

然後在融資和其他方面，本季所有基點均為正值，從外部來看似乎很難建模。所以，對於如何思考未來時期的問題，您能提供什麼協助嗎？

And then on NatWest markets, another good quarter, capital markets are up, I think 50%, and year-to-date, we're at about GBP1 billion already. And that's more than you used to talk about in terms of the contribution from NatWest market.

然後是 NatWest 市場，又一個好季度，資本市場上漲了，我認為是 50%，年初至今，我們已經達到了約 10 億英鎊。這比您以前談論的 NatWest 市場貢獻要多。

So I recognize you sort of report it a bit differently or talk about it a little bit differently than you used to in the past. But how should we think about the contribution there? And if that's sort of base, we can grow into next year. Thank you.

因此，我知道你們對此的報道和談論方式與過去略有不同。但是我們該如何看待那裡的貢獻呢？如果以此為基礎，我們就能發展到明年。謝謝。

Thanks Guy. Katie, I'll take the markets one, then you come in (multiple speakers) So Guy, on markets, I'd encourage -- I wouldn't encourage you to think about that any differently. It's an important part of the commercial and institutional franchise.

謝謝蓋伊。凱蒂，我先談市場，然後你再發言（多位發言者）蓋伊，關於市場，我鼓勵──我不會鼓勵你以不同的方式思考這個問題。它是商業和機構特許經營的重要組成部分。

As you know, we've done a lot to simplify that business over many years. It's got a strong FX franchise. It's got a strong capital markets franchise, and a smaller rates business. Obviously, market conditions this year have been supportive.

如您所知，多年來我們做了很多工作來簡化該業務。它擁有強大的外匯特許經營權。它擁有強大的資本市場特許經營權和較小的利率業務。顯然，今年的市場條件一直比較有利。

You can see that the business has traded well through quarter three, in respect of the capital markets business. Its performance will be very much dependent on market conditions, but we feel like we've made over the last 18 months, 2 years, big steps in terms of rightsizing that business and aligning it with the opportunity there is in our core commercial base. So that's how you should think about it. Katie deposits?

您可以看到，就資本市場業務而言，第三季的業務表現良好。其表現在很大程度上取決於市場條件，但我們覺得，在過去的 18 個月、2 年裡，我們在調整該業務規模並使其與我們核心商業基礎中的機會相結合方面取得了重大進展。所以你應該這樣思考。凱蒂存款？

Yeah, sure. There was a lot in that one question, Guy. So I'll try to make sure I pick the right things off. So what I would say in terms of the kind of flatness of that customer rate that we're seeing, it has been impacted by the rate cut.

是的，當然。蓋伊，這個問題包含了很多內容。所以我會盡力確保挑選出正確的東西。因此，就我們看到的客戶利率持平而言，我想說，這是受到降息的影響。

But what you've also seen is that we've also had a benefit coming through in terms of the instant access. We -- I said in my prepared comments earlier that we're seeing, for example, within the private bank, customers having greater preference for that.

但您也看到，我們在即時訪問方面也獲得了好處。我們 — — 我之前在準備好的評論中說過，例如，我們看到在私人銀行中，客戶對此有更大的偏好。

And the problem is when you're playing with these kind of margins at this sort of level, it doesn't -- it wasn't enough to kind of move the piece. So you do have a different -- a couple of different things going on within that line.

問題是，當你在這種水平上使用這種邊緣時，它並不足以移動棋子。因此，您確實會遇到不同的事情 — — 這條線上發生了一些不同的事情。

In terms of the base rate cuts, you know that we have it in our sensitivity, we model the delay within there. The way to kind of think about it is obviously there's a kind of statutory to 14 days that everybody has.

就基準利率下調而言，您知道我們已經將其納入敏感度模型，我們對其中的延遲進行了建模。顯然，思考這個問題的方式是每個人都有法定的 14 天休息時間。

We found that when you for our retail bank that when you cut the rate, it's about a month until it hits the customer, from when we first started that decision or when the rate cut goes down and we make the decision to when it actually hits the customer.

我們發現，對於我們的零售銀行來說，當你降低利率時，從我們最初做出決定或降息決定到真正影響客戶，大約需要一個月的時間。

The commercial is a little bit longer in terms of that time, but. You can see them kind of coming through. So I think you've started to see the impact of it, but obviously not the whole quarter of the impact given where it was.

從時間上來說，這則廣告稍微長了一點，但是。您可以看到它們一點點走過來。因此我認為你已經開始看到它的影響，但顯然還沒有看到整個季度的影響。

And then your last question around the funds and other. So that was increased by 4 basis points. As you can see on the side, very much supported by active and treasury management. There's a few things within there that I would kind of highlight, kind of helped that treasury tailwind with an income which you see coming through in the NIM walk.

然後您的最後一個問題是關於資金和其他問題的。因此增加了 4 個基點。正如您在側面看到的，它得到了積極和財務管理的大力支持。其中有幾件事我想強調一下，這在某種程度上幫助了財政順風，帶來了收入，你可以在 NIM 步行中看到這一點。

So we have had strong deposit growth, as I mentioned already that led to sort of GBP2 billion growth in our average interest earning assets. We've also done some redeployment of a part of the liquid asset buffer from short dated guilds during Q2 through the whole quarter benefit of those in Q3.

因此，我們的存款實現了強勁增長，正如我已經提到的，這導致我們的平均生息資產增加了 20 億英鎊。我們還對第二季短期行會的部分流動資產緩衝進行了重新部署，以利用第三季的整個季度收益。

And we see most of those guilds are maturing off during Q4. And then we've also benefited a little bit from the spread widening that we've seen in the Treasury repo activity, and those kind of combined together to kind of show that strength of that funding and other line.

我們發現大多數公會在第四季逐漸成熟。然後，我們也從國債回購活動中看到的利差擴大中受益匪淺，這些因素結合在一起，顯示出該融資和其他業務的實力。

Thanks Guy.

謝謝蓋伊。

Thanks Katie. Thanks Guy.

謝謝凱蒂。謝謝蓋伊。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Chris Cant, Autonomous.

克里斯‧坎特 (Chris Cant)，Autonomous。

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I had two please. The first was on your revenue guidance for '24. And specifically the implied decline in revenue sequentially into the fourth quarter versus 3Q on a clean basis.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。請給我兩個。第一個是關於你對2024年的收入預期。具體來說，第四季與第三季相比，營收明顯出現季減。

I was just wondering if you could unpick your thinking there for us. How much of a sort of normalization in other income you're expecting within that? Because obviously it has implications as to how we'll think about 2025.

我只是想知道您是否可以為我們解釋一下您的想法。您預計其他收入的正常化程度會達到多少？因為它顯然對我們如何看待 2025 年有著影響。

And the other question I had was in respect of Basel 3.1 and your capital target. So you're 13% to 14% range as within it entering to your sort of effective group MDA of 130 to 230 basis points. And that's a bit above your UK peers.

我的另一個問題是關於巴塞爾協議 3.1 和您的資本目標。因此，您的範圍在 13% 到 14% 之間，進入有效組 MDA 的範圍是 130 到 230 個基點。這比英國同行略高一些。

So how should we think about how much a Pillar 2A reduction would convert into a potential reduction in those target bands in your case? Would we see more or less a full pass through of a Pillar 2A reduction given the comparatively high level of headroom you currently allow for? Thank you.

那麼，在您的情況下，我們應該如何考慮第 2A 支柱的減幅將在多大程度上轉化為這些目標區間的潛在減幅？考慮到您目前允許的相對較高的淨空水平，我們是否會看到第 2A 支柱減免的全面通過？謝謝。

Thank you Chris. Katie?

謝謝你，克里斯。凱蒂？

Sure, lovely. Thanks very much. So if I look at the kind of Q4 income versus Q3, a couple of things that I would sort of unpick in there. So in Q3, all three businesses delivered higher income, supported by the balance sheet growth and margin expansion.

當然，很可愛。非常感謝。因此，如果我將第四季的收入與第三季的收入進行比較，我會發現其中有幾件事需要說明。因此，在第三季度，受資產負債表成長和利潤率擴大的推動，三項業務均實現了更高的收入。

And it's also important to remember there was one extra day in the quarter that gives a benefit in that quarter of about GBP31 million. Non-interest income was also strong given the market's activity that Guy was referring to, and also the transaction and lending related fees as well, and also those income tailwinds that we saw in Treasury, I spoke about a moment ago.

同樣重要的是要記住，本季還有一天的額外時間，為該季度帶來約 3,100 萬英鎊的收益。非利息考慮到蓋伊提到的市場活動，以及交易和貸款相關費用，以及我剛才談到的我們在財政部看到的收入順風，收入也很強勁。

When I do look at Q4 income, I do expect it to be lower than Q3. I expect some seasonality in that non-interest income as market activity normalizes. The income tailwinds from Treasury are not expected to repeat.

當我查看第四季度的收入時，我確實預計它會低於第三季。隨著市場活動正常化，我預計非利息收入會出現一些季節性。預計財政部的收入順風不會重現。

And also remember that in our assumptions, we've got further base rate cut which we're expecting in November. I do think it's important before we all overly focus on that Q4 income being lower than Q3 is to remind you that we have upgraded guidance today to around 14.4%.

並且請記住，根據我們的假設，我們預計 11 月將進一步下調基準利率。我確實認為，在我們過度關注第四季度收入低於第三季度之前，重要的是提醒您，我們今天已將預期上調至 14.4% 左右。

And part of that upgrade is also because of the strength that we've seen coming through in our own view of Q4 from when we last spoke in July, and it's been a big contributor to the upgrade of the guidance as well. So the shape is maybe not what you exactly like, is important to feel that and to remember that, and that's also why we feel positive as we move forward from here.

這次上調的部分原因還在於，自 7 月上次談話以來，我們對第四季的看法十分強勁，這也是我們上調預期的一個重要因素。因此，形狀可能不是你完全喜歡的，感受這一點並記住這一點很重要，這也是為什麼我們從這裡繼續前進時感到積極的原因。

In terms of your question on other income. Look, I know the other income line is more frustrating in terms of that center income. What I do say is that you should always work to this number being roughly zero since we do seek to allocate this out to the business.

關於您關於其他收入的問題。聽著，我知道就中心收入而言，其他收入線更令人沮喪。我要說的是，你應該始終努力使這個數字大致為零，因為我們確實尋求將其分配給企業。

In Q3, it was minus GBP9 million, down from GBP46 million in Q2. What we try to do, so in Q2 there's income left in the center, we would normally allocate that out. We kind of did a bit of a catch up in Q3. So I do think as you think about that, that line, it is to think about it as zero. And I know that's a little bit frustrating for you all as well when we have little bits left within there.

第三季的虧損為負 900 萬英鎊，低於第二季的 4,600 萬英鎊。我們嘗試做的是，因此在第二季度，如果中間剩餘收入，我們通常會將其分配出去。我們在第三季做了一些追趕。所以我確實認為，當你思考那條線時，就把它想像成零。而且我知道當我們在那裡只剩下一點點的時候這對你們所有人來說也有點令人沮喪。

If I move on to Basel and 3.1, I'm not going to surprise you too much here, I suspect, Chris, by sort of saying, we're looking at Pillar 2, the guidance is out. We're obviously talking with the regulators and things like that. But at the moment, it's really too early to give you a guidance on that.

如果我繼續討論巴塞爾協議 3.1，我想，克里斯，我不會讓你太感到驚訝，因為我們正在研究第二支柱，指導已經出台。我們顯然正在與監管機構進行談判等等。但目前，就此給予指導還為時過早。

We're comfortable with the 13% to 14% headroom and target that we're working with just now. And we've always said that we'll look at that in time and we just need to go a bit further on with Pillar 2. So we'll talk -- we'll update you as soon as we feel comfortable too, and we've got a bit more clarity on how the actual mechanisms will work to achieve the aim that the regulator is seeking.

我們對目前正在努力實現的 13% 至 14% 的餘地和目標感到滿意。我們一直說我們會及時考慮這個問題，我們只需要在第二支柱上再進一步。所以我們會進行討論——只要我們覺得合適，我們就會立即向您通報最新情況，並且我們對實際機制如何運作以實現監管機構所尋求的目標有了更清晰的認識。

Okay. Thanks very much Chris.

好的。非常感謝克里斯。

Yeah. Thanks Chris. The Council --

是的。謝謝克里斯。理事會--

Thank you.

謝謝。

Is ongoing. Thanks.

正在進行中。謝謝。

Benjamin Toms, RBC.

班傑明‧湯姆斯（Benjamin Toms），加拿大皇家銀行。

Morning both. Thank you for taking my questions. Your cost of risk number has been a bit erratic year-to-date. But given that you still have about GBP300 million in the overlays. Is it sensible to assume that the rate trends are below through the cycle levels over the next 12 months? That's the first question.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。今年迄今為止，您的風險成本數字有點不穩定。但假設你仍有大約3億英鎊的覆蓋金額。假設未來 12 個月的利率趨勢低於週期水準是否合理？這是第一個問題。

And secondly, the Sainsbury's transactions due to close next year in the first half. Can you help us with the potential contribution this might have to the P&L, and will there be any day one impact to impairments that we should think about in our modeling? Thank you.

其次，塞恩斯伯里的交易將於明年上半年完成。您能否幫助我們了解這對損益表可能產生的潛在貢獻，以及這對我們在建模中應該考慮的減損是否會產生第一天的影響？謝謝。

Thanks. Thanks, Ben. What I'll say a few words on impairments and cost of risk. So if you look at year-to-date, our cost of risk is 10 basis points. So relatively low, the performance of the portfolios remains very strong.

謝謝。謝謝，本。我將就損害和風險成本談幾句。因此，如果看一下年初至今的情況，我們的風險成本是 10 個基點。相對較低，投資組合的表現仍然非常強勁。

Customers have been very resilient. There is a delta between quarter three and quarter two. You'll remember that we had some releases in quarter, the PMA releases in quarter two, both on the retail and the C&I side.

顧客的適應力非常強。第三季和第二季之間存在差異。您會記得，我們​​在本季發布了一些產品，PMA 於第二季發布，包括零售和 C&I 方面。

There's no material releases in the quarter three number. So that explains some of the differences between quarter two and quarter three. We upgraded our guidance or improved our guidance at the half year around cost of risk, I think less than 15 basis points.

第三季沒有重大發布。這就解釋了第二季和第三季之間的一些差異。我們上調了我們的指引，或改善了我們對半年風險成本的指引，我認為不到 15 個基點。

Katie outlined in her pre-prepared words that we confirmed our guidance on that. We believe we've got a good business mix that's low risk, high quality prime assets, and we're very confident in the credit performance of the portfolios.

凱蒂在她事先準備好的言語中概述了我們對此確認的指導。我們相信，我們擁有低風險、高品質優質資產的良好業務組合，我們對投資組合的信用表現非常有信心。

On Sainsbury's, you're right. The acquisition is planned to close in the second half of the year. We said at the time of the announcement that it's RoTE accretive. It's around GBP2.5 billion of loans and deposits. We haven't given any more detail at this stage, but I'd emphasize that at the point of announcement, we said it's RoTE creative upon completion.

關於 Sainsbury's，你是對的。此次收購計劃於今年下半年完成。我們在宣佈時就說過，這是 RoTE 加值的。貸款和存款約為25億英鎊。目前我們還沒有透露更多細節，但我要強調的是，在宣佈時，我們說過完成後它就是 RoTE 創意。

Just one thing Ben on your specific question there. We will recognize an ECL on day one. That's absolutely standard as you know, it will be a good book charge that we'll bring in at that time as we complete it in H1 next year.

關於你提出的具體問題，我只想說一件事，Ben。我們將在第一天確認 ECL。如您所知，這絕對是標準的，這將是一筆不錯的圖書費用，我們將在明年上半年完成時收取。

Thanks Ben.

謝謝本。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Aman Rakkar, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的阿曼‧拉卡爾 (Aman Rakkar)。

Aman, do we have you?

阿曼，有你嗎？

Aman please unmute if you can. Thank you.

阿曼，如果可以的話，請取消靜音。謝謝。

Hey guys. Hopefully you can hear me.

嘿，大家好。希望你能聽到我的聲音。

We can.

我們可以。

Sorry for that. Thank you very much. I've got two questions, but I just sorry, I have to just ask 0.5 of another one because I'm just getting loads of inbound on it. Katie, just on this funding 104 bps positive. I guess not to repeat next quarter.

很抱歉。非常感謝。我有兩個問題，但很抱歉，我只能問另一個問題的 0.5 個，因為我收到了很多關於它的問題。凱蒂，光是這筆融資就產生了 104 個基點的正收益。我估計下個季度不會再重複了。

I mean, I'm never quite sure if that's a headwind because the non-repeat of income to me is a headwind. So should I be shaving off a couple of bits on my NIM as I go into Q4 or is it literally, this is not don't expect plus 4% in the NIM bridge in Q4 because I need to get that one out of the way because I've had about four or five questions on that this morning.

我的意思是，我從來不太確定這是否是一個阻力，因為對我來說，收入不重複是一個阻力。所以，當我進入 Q4 時，我是否應該在我的 NIM 上削減一些位，或者說，這並不是字面意思，不要指望 Q4 的 NIM 橋會增加 4%，因為我需要解決這個問題，因為今天早上我已經有大約四五個關於這個的問題了。

Well, why don't I deal with that one very quickly for you. So I would say not -- we're not guiding on the NIM bridge, but we don't expect that to repeat. But I would think of it more in the way that you're describing is don't expect 104 bps of uplift from it, and because we're also not expecting it to reverse.

好吧，我為什麼不快速幫你處理這個問題呢？所以我想說，我們沒有在 NIM 橋上進行指導，但我們不希望這種情況重演。但我更願意按照您描述的方式來考慮，不要指望它會帶來 104 個基點的上漲，而且我們也不指望它會出現逆轉。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Your real question one.

您真正的問題一。

My real questions okay, cool, two hopefully quick ones. On your RWA guide for '25, so thank you very much for the clarification on Basel. There presumably is some other bits and pieces as well though, right, CRD IV and other.

我真正的問題是，好的，很酷，兩個希望是簡短的。在您 25 年的 RWA 指南中，非常感謝您對巴塞爾的澄清。不過，大概還存在一些其他的碎片，對吧，CRD IV 和其他的。

So is there any color -- I mean, ideally, if you could tell us a number would be great, but really helpful. And the more pertinent point to that question is there is an implied loan growth that you're kind of pointing to which is pretty decent.

那麼有沒有顏色——我的意思是，理想情況下，如果您能告訴我們一個數字，那就太好了，但真的很有幫助。這個問題更切題的一點是，你所指出的隱含貸款成長是相當可觀的。

And I know we've got a couple of billion coming from Sainsbury's. But to me, it looks like you could comfortably budget for mid-single digit loan growth given the performance in Q3. And I think forward lead indicators that are building from here. Presumably you're confident on your loan growth prospects next year, mid-single digit sounds very achievable. That's a question.

我知道我們從塞恩斯伯里獲得了幾十億美元。但對我來說，考慮到第三季的表現，你似乎可以輕鬆地為中等個位數的貸款成長做預算。我認為前瞻性領先指標正在從這裡開始建立。想必您對明年的貸款成長前景很有信心，中等個位數的成長聽起來非常有可能實現。這是個疑問。

The second question is on the capital 13.9% is a great print. You have the capacity to participate in a directed buyback if there was one to come in November and December. My question is how comfortable are you running your CET1 ratio at the bottom end of your target? Indeed would you tolerate it being below 13.0% intra quarter?

第二個問題是關於資本的，13.9%是一個很好的數字。如果 11 月和 12 月有定向回購，您就有能力參與。我的問題是，對於將 CET1 比率控制在目標底端，您感覺如何？事實上，你能容忍季度內利率低於 13.0% 嗎？

Because presumably you're very confident in cap generation. I guess I'm trying to get a sense of to what extent you'd be willing to participate in a DBB and what the kind of range is around that? Thank you very much.

因為想必你對上限生成非常有信心。我想了解一下您願意在多大程度上參與 DBB，以及這個範圍大概是怎麼樣的？非常感謝。

Okay, so I'll take the capital one, and (multiple speakers) So Aman, on capital as you've highlighted, it's a very strong print, 13.9%. We're very pleased with the capital generation through the quarter, 57 basis point in the quarter before distributions, and obviously around 197 basis point year-to-date, that's good.

好的，我來談談大寫字母，（多位發言者）阿曼，關於大寫字母，正如您所強調的，它的印刷量非常強勁，為 13.9%。我們對本季的資本創造感到非常滿意，分配前季度的資本創造為 57 個基點，顯然年初至今的資本創造約為 197 個基點，這很好。

As you highlighted, given the change in the UK listing rules, and obviously the shareholder approval we got at our AGM, that does provide another DBB opportunity before the one year anniversary next May. That as I always say is ultimately a decision for the government on the timing of that in terms of directed buybacks.

正如您所強調的，鑑於英國上市規則的變化，以及我們在年度股東大會上獲得的股東批准，這確實在明年 5 月一周年紀念日之前提供了另一個 DBB 機會。正如我經常說的那樣，這最終取決於政府對定向回購時機的決定。

So but our preference hasn't changed. Our preference is DBBs, and we remain keen to support the government's exit and participate if indeed, that's what they want to do. In terms of the where we're happy to operate, Katie has talked in the past, about being happy to toggle within the range.

但我們的偏好並沒有改變。我們傾向於 DBB，如果政府確實願意的話，我們仍然熱衷於支持政府退出和參與。關於我們樂意開展業務的領域，凱蒂過去曾談到過，她很高興在範圍內切換。

But what I wouldn't say is you shouldn't expect us automatically to pay down to 13%. We've got to think about the wider path to our RWA target of GBP200 billion. And obviously, as you alluded to, some of those are -- some of the capital will be consumed by the growth given the momentum we've got in our three businesses.

但我不想說的是，你不應該期望我們會自動將利率降至 13%。我們必須考慮實現 2000 億英鎊 RWA 目標的更廣闊道路。顯然，正如您所提到的，考慮到我們三大業務的發展勢頭，部分資本將被成長所消耗。

Its perfect. And on RWAs and loan growth, so let me talk about RWAs a little bit more widely. I mean, as you say, I mean, there's a number of different things that will come to us on RWA, CRD IV. We obviously have the OpEx charge that we have in every quarter, one Sainsbury's is coming in.

它是完美的。關於風險加權資產和貸款成長，讓我更廣泛地談談風險加權資產。我的意思是，正如你所說，在 RWA、CRD IV 上會出現很多不同的事情。顯然，我們每季都有營運支出費用，其中一個是 Sainsbury’s 的費用。

And I think one of the things as I look at the walk we've got given you for RWAs, we had good growth of GBP2.5 billion in Q3. We're very pleased to have seen that, and what we're pleased about it's really across the broad book and broad across the whole bank, which I think is really demonstration that the machine is working and our customers are responding to kind of more positive economic scenarios.

我認為，當我回顧我們為 RWA 制定的計劃時，我們發現第三季 RWA 實現了 25 億英鎊的良好成長。我們非常高興看到這一點，讓我們感到高興的是，這確實遍及整個帳簿和整個銀行，我認為這確實證明機器正在運轉，我們的客戶正在對更積極的經濟情景做出反應。

We also were pleased to mitigate that with the RWA management, we've done a lot of RWA management. This year, we're close to kind of GBP6 billion. I wouldn't take that as a run rate. And necessarily there's obviously when you start there, you get a natural kind of first sort of push, but it is something that we do expect to see as a feature as we go through here.

我們也很高興能夠透過 RWA 管理來緩解這個問題，我們已經做了很多 RWA 管理工作。今年，我們的收入接近 60 億英鎊。我不會將其視為運行率。顯然，當你從那裡開始時，你會自然而然地得到第一種推動力，但這是我們期望在我們經歷這裡時看到的一個特點。

CRD IV, we're not quoted numbers on that. We -- our philosophy always is to tell you things when we are comfortable to do that, and we will as that goes through. But we're very pleased today to confirm -- reconfirm that around GBP200 billion number reflecting the acquisitions we've done since the start as well. And I think the clarity that we've now received on Basil 3.1 is very helpful to us. Thanks very much Aman.

CRD IV，我們沒有引用該數字。我們的理念始終是，當我們願意時才告訴您事情，並且我們會按照這種情況進行。但我們今天非常高興地確認——再次確認約 2000 億英鎊的數字，這也反映了我們自一開始就進行的收購。我認為我們現在對 Basil 3.1 的了解對我們非常有幫助。非常感謝阿曼。

Thanks Aman.

謝謝阿曼。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

Hello. Hopefully you can hear me okay.

你好。希望您能聽到我的話。

We can, good morning.

可以，早安。

Good morning both of you. Can you give some details on the hedge in the quarter? And because, and going forward, you've now sort of posted several quarters of deposit growth. Can we start thinking about growth in the hedge next year?

你們倆早安。您能否詳細介紹本季的對沖情況？而且因為，展望未來，您現在已經發布了幾個季度的存款成長情況。我們可以開始考慮明年對沖的成長嗎？

And where I'm coming from is obviously your guidance is pretty cautious for Q4 on revenues, and it sounds like NII sort of is part of it. What we've seen here in Q3 among UK banks and you in particular, is it what component is frontloading of growth versus sustainable growth in 2025 as we think about 2025, any commentary there would be appreciated.

我的觀點是，顯然你們對第四季的營收預期非常謹慎，聽起來 NII 似乎是其中的一部分。我們在第三季度看到，英國各家銀行，尤其是您的銀行，在我們對 2025 年的展望中，哪個部分是前期增長，哪個部分是可持續增長，對此，任何評論都將不勝感激。

And then a quick one on the provision and the single name provision. Can you reassure us or give us any details on coverage on that single name? Are we going to see more top ups in coming quarters? Anything you can reassure us on there would be appreciated. Thank you.

然後快速討論一下該規定和單一名稱規定。您能否向我們保證或向我們提供有關該單一名稱的保險範圍的任何詳細資訊？未來幾季我們會看到更多的儲值嗎？如果您能就任何事宜向我們保證，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Okay, thanks. Alvaro. Katie, I'll let you talk to the hedge. But Alvaro, just to comment. I guess in our view, it's not cautious guidance. We're obviously upgrading today are both on previous expectations and consensus. So that doesn't sound too cautious to me. Katie?

好的，謝謝。阿爾瓦羅。凱蒂，我讓你和樹籬談談。但阿爾瓦羅只是想發表評論。我想，在我們看來，這並不是謹慎的指導。我們今天顯然是根據先前的預期和共識進行升級的。所以在我看來這聽起來不太謹慎。凱蒂？

Sure. I'll do that and I'll pick up that little impairment question at the end as well. So, in terms of the hedge, I don't have much more to say than I've already shared with you quite extensively. And we repeated the H1 disclosure in the back of the pack as well. So you don't need to go searching for that.

當然。我會這麼做，最後我也會解答那個小損傷問題。因此，就對沖而言，除了已經與大家詳細分享的內容外，我沒有太多可說的。我們也在包裝背面重複了 H1 的披露。因此您不需要去尋找它。

But at the moment, product hedge H1, GBP175 million, we're expecting that to reduce to GBP170 million by the end of 2024. We do expect to continue to have that moderate increase in the hedge income year on year in '24, and then that tailwind really increasing as the notional stabilizes.

但目前，產品對沖 H1 為 1.75 億英鎊，我們預計到 2024 年底將減少到 1.7 億英鎊。我們確實預計，2024年對沖收入將繼續同比溫和增長，而且隨著名目金額穩定，這種順風將真正增強。

A stabilization of deposit supports that expectation. And we do think the hedge income will grow into 2025, and continue to improve into 2026. We talked about GBP800 million in 2025. And the real confidence in that comes from the mechanistic approach that we continue and the amount of income we've already got locked into both of those years.

存款的穩定支持了這一預期。我們確實認為對沖收入將成長到 2025 年，並​​在 2026 年繼續改善。我們談論的是 2025 年的 8 億英鎊。我們對此的真正信心來自於我們繼續採取的機械方法，以及我們在這兩年已經鎖定的收入數額。

And when I think of the C&I impairment, I think in any quarter where you have -- your recognizing impairment naturally, you see a bump up in that quarter. If I look at the C&I impairment charge for the year-to-date, it's 5 basis points.

當我想到 C&I 減損時，我認為在任何一個季度，只要你自然地認識到減損，你就會看到該季度的減損上升。如果我查看年初至今的 C&I 減損費用，它是 5 個基點。

So it really reflects an incredibly strong group book that is performing well. And when you compare, I'm sure you will overall the kind of where we were Q3 and where we are Q2 in terms of their impairment, you can see in the C&I our stage 3 loans have gone up by GBP148 million in Q3, our ECL has gone up by GBP123 million, and our ECL coverage has gone from 37.5% to 40.3%.

因此，這確實反映出集團的財務狀況非常強勁，並且表現良好。當您進行比較時，我相信您會總體上了解我們在第三季度和第二季度的減值情況，您可以看到在 C&I 中，我們的第三階段貸款在第三季度增加了 1.48 億英鎊，我們的 ECL 增加了 1.23 億英鎊，我們的 ECL 覆蓋率從 37.5% 上升到 40.3%。

So really we're well provided for in there, and there's a real strength of the book within those provisions. And the 5 basis points for the year is really a historically very low number.

所以，我們確實在那裡得到了很好的照顧，而這些照顧中也體現出了這本書的真正優勢。今年的 5 個基點確實是一個歷史最低數字。

Yeah. I mean, we wouldn't Alvaro, comments on individual clients, but I think it's fair to say we believe that we're very well covered in respect of that particular name. Thanks.

是的。我的意思是，我們不會對阿爾瓦羅 (Alvaro) 個人客戶發表評論，但我認為可以公平地說，我們相信我們對該特定名稱的報道非常充分。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jonathan Pierce, Jefferies.

喬納森皮爾斯，傑富瑞。

Hi, Jonathan. Good to have you back.

你好，喬納森。很高興你回來。

Yeah or not.

是或不是。

Hello. (multiple speakers) It's good to be back. Having seen the numbers this week and yours today. I've just got a couple of small ones actually in the scheme of things, but I'm interested nonetheless in the answers. The customer funding rates across the three divisions in in the third quarter were only down about a basis point if you wait by the deposits of the businesses. First is Q2, and obviously that's because you hadn't passed on much in the way of the rate cut, until later in August on the retail side, and then I think October on the corporate side.

你好。（多位發言者）回來真好。看到了本週的數字和您今天的數字。實際上，我只在計劃中遇到了幾個小問題，但我仍然對答案感興趣。如果依照業務存款來算，第三季三個部門的客戶資金利率只下降了約一個基點。首先是第二季度，顯然這是因為你們沒有將降息的效應傳遞到零售方面直到 8 月下旬，然後我認為企業方面要到 10 月了。

Can you give us a sense as to what the impact of that deposit repricing lag was in Q3? I mean, I presume it's going to be a bit bigger in Q4, but I'm just sort of thinking a bit more out into next year when this becomes possibly at some point a tailwind rather than a headwind, so the deposit repricing lag in Q3.

您能否告訴我們存款重新定價滯後對第三季的影響是什麼？我的意思是，我估計第四季的成長幅度會更大一些，但我只是在考慮明年，到那時，這可能會成為順風而不是逆風，因此第三季度的存款重新定價會滯後。

The second question, obviously last summer, I think in Q3, your term deposit base increased by about GBP20 billion net. So a very big set of inflows in those three months, and a lot of those I guess matured in the third quarter of this year.

第二個問題，顯然是去年夏天，我認為在第三季度，您的定期存款基數淨增加了約 200 億英鎊。因此，這三個月有大量資金流入，其中許多我猜是在今年第三季到期的。

I think the default was for those customers to drop into a primary saver account, which has got about 200 basis points of margin. So maybe you can tell us what those customers did in the third quarter and whether there's a sort of bit of a temporary benefit in Q3 as well from a brief period whilst customers decided what to do with their money, and at the same time, we're earning you 200 basis points of margin. Thanks a lot.

我認為這些客戶的預設設定是將錢存入主要儲蓄帳戶，該帳戶的保證金約為 200 個基點。所以也許您可以告訴我們這些客戶在第三季做了什麼，以及在客戶決定如何處理他們的資金的短暫時期內，第三季是否也獲得了一些暫時的利益，同時我們為您賺取了 200 個基點的利潤。多謝。

Okay. Katie, why do you take the deposit repricing lag, and I'll talk more generally about the customer deposit.

好的。凱蒂，你為什麼要考慮存款重新定價滯後，我會更籠統地談談客戶存款。

Sure, perfect. Thanks Paul. So as I look at it in terms of the funding ratio, absolutely we've seen very little kind of movement in those rates in the quarter. They do vary a bit by a franchise. It's largely the impact of the lag effect, but it also reflects kind of net flows. And importantly, as you understand, the mix of where those flows are going.

當然，完美。謝謝保羅。因此，當我從融資比率的角度來看時，我們確實看到本季這些比率幾乎沒有什麼變動。它們確實因特許經營的不同而略有不同。這主要是滯後效應的影響，但也反映了一種淨流量。重要的是，正如你所理解的，這些流動的去向是混合的。

I'm not quantifying the repricing lag. But one of the things I think that you could look at and work it out from is some of our disclosures, you can see on the deposit margin expansion that we've had within the NIM that if I looked at Q2 and I compare that to Q3, it has gone from 6 basis points to 4 basis points. So that would be a little bit of a proxy, I think that could help you in terms of kind of quantifying what that might look like.

我沒有量化重新定價滯後。但我認為，您可以查看並找出答案的事情之一是我們的部分披露信息，您可以看到，如果我查看第二季度並將其與第三季度進行比較，我們在 NIM 中的存款保證金擴張已經從 6 個基點下降到了 4 個基點。所以這將是一個有點代理，我認為這可以幫助你量化它可能會是什麼樣子。

Paul, do you want to?

保羅，你想這麼做嗎？

Yeah. Thanks, Jonathan. On deposits, generally we're very pleased with the growth in all three of our businesses actually. And that's three quarters -- consecutive quarters for all three businesses. So that -- so we're pleased with that.

是的。謝謝，喬納森。就存款而言，整體而言，我們對三項業務的成長感到非常滿意。這是三項業務連續三個季度的表現。所以——我們對此感到滿意。

You can see as you alluded to that the level of term deposits has stabilized over the last couple of quarters. On your point around automatically defaulting into instant access, that actually isn't correct. Customers had a choice at origination around which account they'd go into.

正如您所提到的，您可以看到定期存款水準在過去幾季已經趨於穩定。關於自動預設進入即時存取的觀點實際上是不正確的。客戶在開始時就可以選擇要進入哪個帳戶。

But more interestingly and more importantly, is a high proportion of customers are renewing into fixed term accounts. Obviously, the pricing of those accounts has changed given we're a year on. But a significant majority are renewing.

但更有趣、更重要的是，很大一部分客戶正在續訂定期帳戶。顯然，考慮到一年過去了，這些帳戶的定價已經改變了。但絕大多數人都正在續約。

We've done an awful lot of work over the course of the last 12 or 18 months in terms of developing our savings product range, our customer journeys, making it much easier for customers to understand that the products are available. And I'm really pleased those investments are paying off.

在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡，我們在開發儲蓄產品系列、客戶旅程方面做了大量工作，讓客戶更容易了解產品的可用性。我很高興這些投資獲得了回報。

We've also invested considerably in our savings kind of analytics, which has given us great insights into kind of customer behaviors. So I think we're seeing the benefit of that both in terms of overall growth in deposits, but also surfacing offers to customers and allowing them to renew if they want to. Hopefully that gives you a sense of it. Thanks Jonathan.

我們還在儲蓄分析方面投入了大量資金，這使我們對客戶行為有了深入的了解。因此，我認為我們看到了這樣做的好處，不僅在存款整體成長方面，而且在向客戶提供優惠方面，並允許他們在需要時進行續約。希望這能讓你對此有所了解。謝謝喬納森。

Yeah, thank you very much.

是的，非常感謝。

Benjamin Caven-Roberts, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的班傑明‧卡文-羅伯茲 (Benjamin Caven-Roberts)。

Yes, good morning both, and thank you for taking my questions, and just one on the macro front. So looking ahead to the budget on the October 30. And what is the key outcome that you're monitoring as a management team? And are there any particular areas which give you either cause for confidence or cause for concern?

是的，大家早安，感謝你們回答我的問題，我只想問一個關於宏觀的問題。所以展望 10 月 30 日的預算。身為管理團隊，您監控的關鍵結果是什麼？有哪些特定領域讓您有信心或感到擔憂？

And then just one follow up on non-interest income. So overall that was notably stronger than expected in the quarter and grew obviously 5% year-on-year. In looking beyond the NatWest markets element, is there anything within that which you would not consider underlying growth? And how should we think about sort of run rating that forward?

然後只跟進非利息收入。因此，總體而言，本季的表現明顯強於預期，年增 5%。除了 NatWest 市場因素之外，還有什麼您不會考慮的潛在成長因素嗎？那我們該如何看待前鋒的跑動評分呢？

Thanks, Ben. Good to hear you. I'll take the first one, Katie. So on the budget, you won't be surprised, Ben, I'm not going to get drawn on individual measures. I think there's enough speculation and it will continue to be over the course of the next four or five days.

謝謝，本。很高興聽到你的消息。我想要第一個，凱蒂。因此，在預算問題上，本，你不會感到驚訝，我不會被單獨的措施所吸引。我認為已經有足夠多的猜測了，而且這種猜測還會持續四、五天。

In terms of what I'd like to see and what we'd like to see at NatWest from the budget, I think we'd like to see a budget that helps support growth and investment in all the regions and all the countries of the UK. So we'd like to see a pro-growth budget, obviously, that needs to strike a balance between stability and the public finances, but also supporting and driving investment.

就我希望看到的內容以及我們希望 NatWest 在預算中看到的方面而言，我認為我們希望看到一份有助於支持英國所有地區和所有國家的成長和投資的預算。因此，我們希望看到一個有利於成長的預算，顯然，它需要在穩定和公共財政之間取得平衡，同時也支持和推動投資。

So we're monitoring all the measures that would contribute to that at a macro level. Obviously, there's a broad range of individual measures that will affect different parts of our client base, whether that's our wealth client base, whether that's our retail customer base, whether that's our businesses looking to invest.

因此，我們正在宏觀層面監控所有有助於實現這一目標的措施。顯然，一系列單獨的措施將影響我們客戶群的不同部分，無論是我們的財富客戶群，還是我們的零售客戶群，還是我們尋求投資的企業。

So we have a I guess a set of data points and a set of metrics at a more micro level as well. So we're prepared for that, but I guess we'll all find out next Wednesday exactly which measures the budget will contain or not. Katie?

因此，我猜我們也有一組數據點和一組更微觀層面的指標。所以我們已經做好了準備，但我想下週三我們就會看到預算中究竟包含哪些措施，不包含哪些措施。凱蒂？

Sure, perfect. Thanks very much, Paul. So as I look at non-interest income, we are pleased with our performance in non-interest income. We increased by 7.1% over the last nine months and which I think is a very kind of strong print. For the quarter across our three businesses, that was up by 3.8% compared to Q2, that was driven payment services, lending and finance fees, currencies income, and market, and also the AUM fees.

當然，完美。非常感謝，保羅。因此，當我查看非利息收入時，我們對非利息收入的表現感到滿意。在過去的九個月裡，我們的成長了 7.1%，我認為這是一個非常強勁的成績。本季度，我們三項業務的營收較第二季度增長了 3.8%，這主要得益於支付服務、貸款和財務費用、貨幣收入和市場以及 AUM 費用。

As I look forward from this, Ben, that we don't guide on non-interest income specifically, we give you total income guidance. There is obviously some seasonality that we see that comes through more in Q4, but has different reactions.

本，我期待我們不會專門針對非利息收入提供指導，而是為您提供總收入指導。顯然，我們看到一些季節性因素在第四季表現得更為明顯，但反應有所不同。

Obviously, when you get to Q1, that capital markets activity has slowed down a little bit in the run up to the budget and US election, and markets activity does normally reduce a little bit in December, so we'll see how that kind of flows through.

顯然，當進入第一季時，資本市場活動在預算和美國大選前已經有所放緩，而且市場活動通常會在 12 月略有減少，因此我們將看看這種情況如何發展。

And obviously within retail and some of the things like FX related spend is just less within the outside of the summer months. But over the medium term, we are confident in our investment initiatives for non-interest income that they can deliver growth for us.

顯然，在零售業和外匯等相關領域，夏季以外的支出會較少。但從中期來看，我們對非利息收入的投資計畫充滿信心，它們能夠為我們帶來成長。

Some of the areas that we're working on is investment (inaudible) and fees as we grow our AUM stack, you saw some really strong growth in that this last quarter and our payment services offerings in areas of our markets businesses such as FX, where we perform really very well.

我們正在努力的領域之一是投資（聽不清楚）和費用，隨著我們的 AUM 堆疊的成長，您會看到上個季度的強勁成長以及我們在外匯等市場業務領域提供的支付服務，我們的表現非常出色。

Obviously, there's other things around customer confidence and GDP growth as well as the kind of market environment being conducive for C&I. So there are a few things to think about as you take that non-interest forward. Thanks very much, Ben.

顯然，還有其他因素，包括客戶信心和 GDP 成長，以及有利於 C&I 的市場環境。因此，當你繼續推進非利息事務時，有幾件事需要考慮。非常感謝，本。

Thanks Ben. I think it's another example of where our focus and our investments we're now starting to see the benefits as well as we go -- as we get into delivering the strategy that I talked to earlier in the year. Thanks, Ben.

謝謝本。我認為這是另一個例子，說明我們的重點和投資現在開始看到好處，因為我們開始實施我今年早些時候談到的策略。謝謝，本。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Robert Noble, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的羅伯特‧諾布爾 (Robert Noble)。

Hey Robert.

嘿，羅伯特。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. And just you said that the point you made on short term guilds maturing in Q4, what impact does that actually have? Presumably the guilds are at lower yield than cash at the moment. So all else equal, doesn't that improve income?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。您剛才提到了短期公會在第四季度成熟，這實際上會產生什麼影響？據推測目前行會的收益低於現金。那麼，在其他條件相同的情況下，這難道不會提高收入嗎？

And then secondly, can you just walk us through the economics on the credit card product? So how much of the lending is balance transfer? What rate you book it in at? And how do the returns work against 100% risk weight on the assets there? Thanks.

其次，能否向我們介紹一下信用卡產品的經濟原理？那麼貸款有多少是餘額轉移？您以什麼價格預訂的？那麼，相對於資產的 100% 風險權重，收益又是如何呢？謝謝。

Yeah, sure. So if I look at the treasury tailwind first of all, so just to be to kind of be really clear on what I said, what we did in Q2 was that we moved some of our liquid asset buffer from cash into short dated guilds and we're seeing them maturing in Q4. So what you had there was the of a whole quarter in Q2 -- sorry in Q3, forgive me.

是的，當然。因此，如果我先看一下財政順風，那麼為了更清楚地說明我所說的話，我們在第二季度所做的是將部分流動資產緩衝從現金轉移到短期公會，我們看到它們在第四季度到期。因此，您所擁有的是第二季度的整個季度——抱歉，是第三季度，請原諒我。

And then obviously we've already -- some of them already matured. We'll continue to look at that as we move forward in that, but we're comfortable that has given us real benefit. We do look at it on a spread basis as we do some swapping out as well.

顯然我們已經——其中一些已經成熟了。我們將在推進這一進程中繼續關注這一點，但我們感到欣慰的是，這已經為我們帶來了真正的好處。當我們進行一些換算時，我們確實會從利差的角度來看待它。

In terms of the credit card growth, as we see them coming on, obviously a portion of a large portion of the growth of the initial part is done by the sixth month transfer. And then, so that's the kind of 0% led. So at the moment, you're obviously -- your income is kind of delayed for those sort of six months. We reflect that in the EIR and things like that.

就信用卡成長而言，正如我們所看到的，顯然初始部分的大部分成長是透過第六個月的轉帳完成的。那麼，這就是 0% 的情況。所以目前，你的收入顯然會被延遲六個月左右。我們在 EIR 和類似的東西中反映了這一點。

And they, -- and then as they mature, we have assumptions about how many we retain. And then obviously, you can start to see with the improvement that we're seeing in the return within that area that we're getting the benefit of that.

然後，隨著它們的成熟，我們會假設能保留多少。然後顯然，您可以開始看到我們在該領域的回報有所改善，我們正在從中受益。

Is interesting, we've also just launched our travel card and which has been launched. Now, that's not 0% balance transfer and it's going -- it's working quite well. We're pleased with it. It's launched within there. So obviously, it is generating income as you go through.

有趣的是，我們也剛剛推出了我們的旅行卡，並且已經推出。現在，這不是 0% 餘額轉移，而且它運行得相當好。我們對此很滿意。它是在那裡發射的。顯然，當你進行這個過程時，它會產生收入。

I think what, Paul and I are pleased about with the credit card book is it's really maturing very well in terms of from where we started to the share it has of market today up to 9%, the addition of Sainsbury's when it comes on in next year will be important to really build that growth. And we do see this as an important contributor as we move forward from here.

我認為，保羅和我對信用卡業務感到滿意的一點是，從我們一開始的市場份額到現在高達 9% 來看，它已經非常成熟，明年加入塞恩斯伯里將會對真正實現這一增長至關重要。我們確實認為這是我們今後前進的重要貢獻者。

(inaudible) and Katie, I just added that we've consistently maintained a very kind of high quality credit book. So it's very much a prime book. We haven't needed to change our risk appetite in terms of our ability to grow that. A lot of the growth comes from our existing customers, and providing great credit card facilities to existing banking customers. Thanks Rob.

（聽不清楚）凱蒂，我剛才補充說，我們一直保持著非常高品質的信用帳簿。所以這是一本非常好的書。就我們的成長能力而言，我們不需要改變我們的風險偏好。很大一部分成長來自於我們的現有客戶，以及為現有銀行客戶提供優質的信用卡服務。謝謝羅布。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Coombs, Citi.

花旗銀行的安德魯庫姆斯 (Andrew Coombs)。

Hey Andrew.

嘿，安德魯。

Hey, good morning. If I could just take off, I think the one line item we haven't addressed yet, which is OpEx. You obviously haven't changed your full year guidance, but the Q3 has come in somewhat better than consensus expectations.

嘿，早安。如果我可以開始的話，我認為我們還沒有解決的一個項目是營運支出 (OpEx)。您顯然沒有改變全年業績預期，但第三季的業績略優於普遍預期。

I appreciate that Q3 is always usually a lower seasonal OpEx charge given where the levy gets booked and given when severance usually gets booked. But it does look like there is an underlying head count reduction in the quarter, notably in the retail bank.

我知道，考慮到稅費的計入時間和遣散費的通常計入時間，第三季的季節性營運支出通常較低。但本季似乎確實存在員工數量減少的情況，尤其是零售銀行。

You talk about some lower severance, lower property exit costs. So just anything you can say in terms of trajectory on the OpEx base, not only into Q4 but into 2025 as well, given some of the steps you've been taking.

您談到了降低遣散費和降低財產退出成本。因此，考慮到您已經採取的一些措施，您可以就營運支出基礎的發展軌跡說點什麼，不僅是第四季度，還包括 2025 年。

Yeah, sure. Absolutely. So I think you have heard me in my comments is when you think about Q4, we do expect our costs to be higher in Q4 than they were in the fourth quarter of 2023. So I would compare them there, I think as you're doing, Andrew.

是的，當然。絕對地。因此，我想您已經聽到了我的評論，當您想到第四季度時，我們確實預計第四季度的成本將高於 2023 年第四季。因此我會對它們進行比較，我想就像你所做的一樣，安德魯。

I think it's important to kind of take a step back, and think about what are we trying to do on costs. But we're working really hard in terms of simplification is to make sure that we can create capacity within the costs, so that we can deliver on our full year guidance, but still do the structuring and simplification changes that we want to make.

我認為退一步思考我們在成本方面要做什麼是很重要的。但我們在簡化方面確實非常努力，以確保我們能夠在成本範圍內創造產能，以便我們能夠實現全年預期，同時仍然進行我們想要進行的結構化和簡化變革。

We're not looking to add additional costs on top. So very clear that we will deliver on our full year guidance of broadly flat and then some of the changes that you'll see coming through in terms of severance and property and things in the fourth quarter are all built into that guidance, so that we can make a head start on the 2025 numbers.

我們不想增加額外的費用。因此非常清楚的是，我們將實現全年基本持平的預期，然後您將在第四季度看到的遣散費和財產等方面的一些變化都已納入該預期，以便我們能夠在 2025 年的數字上取得領先地位。

I'm not going to give you guidance today on what we're going to do on 2025. But I think what's really important is this is something that Paul and I are incredibly focused on. And we do see that it's really important that we make sure we create capacity within our cost base, to be able to enable the investment that we want to do within the business.

我今天不會向你們提供關於我們 2025 年要做什麼的指導。但我認為真正重要的是這是保羅和我非常關注的事情。我們確實看到，確保在成本基礎內創造產能非常重要，這樣才能夠實現我們想要在業務中進行的投資。

Thanks very much, Andrew.

非常感謝，安德魯。

Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

阿米特·戈埃爾 (Amit Goel)，Mediobanca。

Hi, thank you. So I have maybe one main kind of follow up question. Just coming back actually on the RWA progression. And thank you for the guidance on the inflation of the GBP8 billion. So I guess that gives you about GBP10 billion factory in Sainsbury, and so forth.

你好，謝謝。所以我可能有一個主要的後續問題。實際上剛剛回顧 RWA 的進展。並感謝您對80億英鎊通膨的指導。所以我想這會為你帶來價值約 100 億英鎊的塞恩斯伯里工廠等等。

Just curious how much RWA management you think you could achieve, whether that kind of steps up or whether a lot of RWA management is done. So just thinking about that in terms of your capacity for incremental loan growth. And then also what you're thinking about the pacing as we get rate cuts. Are you expecting it to kind of step up later or is it kind of fairly even as we move forward? Thank you.

只是好奇您認為您可以實現多少 RWA 管理，是否有這種進步，或者是否已經完成了大量 RWA 管理。所以，只要從增量貸款成長能力的角度來思考這個問題即可。而且您也考慮過降息時的步調。您是否預計它會在以後有所提升，或者隨著我們前進，它會保持相當平穩？謝謝。

Okay, I'll take. Thanks Amit. So on, I guess capital management and RWA. So it's clearly one of our key strategic priorities to work the balance sheet harder. You can see the progress that we've made this year, the capital management actions that have happened in quarter two and quarter three.

好的，我接受。謝謝阿米特。所以，我猜是資本管理和 RWA。因此，更加努力地完善資產負債表顯然是我們的主要策略重點之一。您可以看到我們今年的進展，以及第二季和第三季採取的資本管理行動。

We will have a systemic approach to that. So we will be driving more capital management activity. We don't guide on the exact amounts. But it -- I guess if your question was kind of is it done? The answer is no. We believe there's more opportunity around capital management activity.

我們將採取系統化的方法來解決此問題。因此，我們將推動更多的資本管理活動。我們不提供具體金額的指導。但是它——我想如果你的問題是它完成了嗎？答案是否定的。我們相信資本管理活動還有更多機會。

If you look at our relative position compared to our peers, that would suggest we do have the ability to drive more good capital efficient activity. We'll continue to do that. The way these transactions work, I wouldn't read forward from a particular quarter that that's going to be the output for the next quarter. But we definitely have potential to drive capital management harder, and we will do over the course of the plan.

如果你看看我們與同業的相對地位，你會發現我們確實有能力推動更多資本效率更高的活動。我們將繼續這樣做。這些交易的工作方式是，我不會從某個季度開始預讀這將是下一季的產出。但我們肯定有潛力進一步加強資本管理，而且我們將在計劃的實施過程中做到這一點。

Katie on the rate cuts.

凱蒂談論降息。

So rate cuts, we've got five for next year. The first one is in line with the first MPC meeting in February. And they all kind of then they're spread out throughout the year, and the kind of various meetings that come up, some that we do, we're not assuming any, but we do assume that they start early in the February meeting.

因此，明年我們將有五次降息。第一個與二月的第一次貨幣政策委員會會議一致。然後，它們都會分散在全年中，各種各樣的會議都會召開，有些我們會召開，但我們沒有假設，但我們確實假設它們會在二月初的會議上開始。

Thanks Amit.

謝謝阿米特。

Thanks Amit.

謝謝阿米特。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ed Firth, KBW.

艾德·弗斯（Ed Firth），KBW。

Hey, Ed.

嘿，艾德。

Hi, everybody. Thanks so much for taking the questions. I had actually I had one, but just one sort of supplementary. There've been a few questions on the impact of the rate cut, but just to be absolutely clear. In your sensitivity, I think you said it was about GBP160 million for a 25 basis point cut, that's an annualized number. So I guess GBP40 million for a quarter.

大家好。非常感謝您回答這些問題。我確實有一個，但只是一種補充。關於降息的影響，已經出現了一些疑問，但只是為了絕對清楚。就您的敏感度而言，我認為您說過降息 25 個基點的金額約為 1.6 億英鎊，這是一個年化數字。所以我猜一個季度的價格是 4000 萬英鎊。

Just to be clear, that is broadly what you saw in Q3. Should we assume that, maybe a little bit more because of the delay on the deposits. But orders of magnitude, your sensitivity is playing out as expected. I guess that's a question, rather than statement. That's my first question.

需要明確的是，這大致就是您在第三季看到的情況。我們是否應該假設，由於存款的延遲，可能會多一點。但從數量級來看，你的敏感度正在按照預期發揮作用。我想這是一個疑問句，而不是陳述句。這是我的第一個問題。

And then the second question is slightly more left field. Looking at your balance sheet, you've still got about 15% of your assets now sitting with the Bank of England. Even after quite a lot of QT has gone on. Am I right in thinking that as we roll that forward, you would expect that to come down as the Bank of England continues with its tightening, firstly.

第二個問題稍微有點出乎意料。查看您的資產負債表，您會發現現在仍有大約 15% 的資產存放在英格蘭銀行。即使已經進行了相當長時間的 QT。我的想法是否正確？

And secondly, if we do see that come down, how should we expect that to impact the P&L. I mean, is that like a headwind or a tailwind for the margin? And what sort of spreads, how do you actually manage that as a revenue pod? Thanks very much.

其次，如果我們確實看到這個數字下降，我們應該預期這會對損益表產生什麼影響。我的意思是，這對邊際來說是逆風還是順風？那麼什麼樣的利差，您實際上是如何將其作為收入來源進行管理的？非常感謝。

Ed, thanks. I'll take the first one. First of all, so in terms of that sensitivity, we've repeated it at the back of the slides, on slide 26. So you're absolutely right. So it's GBP167 million and GBP42 million on the structural hedge and GBP125 million on the managed margin.

艾德，謝謝。我要第一個。首先，就敏感度而言，我們在投影片後面的第 26 張投影片上重複了這一點。所以你完全正確。因此，結構性對沖為1.67億英鎊和4,200萬英鎊，管理保證金為1.25億英鎊。

Obviously, you're right that it happens on day one. We've got assumptions of 60% pass through. We've got there's the lag effect. So in theory, GBP40 million a quarter, but actually the rate cut only came in August, so you're halfway through the quarter, but everything's there for you to be able to do that as we go through.

顯然，你說得對，這件事在第一天就會發生。我們假設通過率為 60%。我們發現存在滯後效應。因此，從理論上講，每季度 4000 萬英鎊，但實際上降息發生在 8 月份，因此您已經度過了本季度的一半，但隨著我們不斷推進，一切都已準備就緒，您可以這樣做。

Look, if I look at it, cash balances will come down, and what we will see is allocation back into securities from cash. You saw us do a little bit of that as we took the opportunity in Q2. The income impacts will be driven by the market dynamics and by credit spreads as well. Thanks very much, Ed.

看，如果我看一下，現金餘額將會下降，我們將看到從現金重新分配到證券。您看到我們在第二季度抓住了機會，做了一些這樣的事情。收入影響將受到市場動態和信用利差的影響。非常感謝，埃德。

Sorry there. But just sort of conceptually, is I mean, is that a positive contribution to your margin at the moment, you make a good spread (multiple speakers)

抱歉。但從概念上講，我的意思是，這對你的利潤率有正面的貢獻嗎？（多位發言者）

Absolutely. And that's what you saw in those treasury tailwinds coming through in this quarter is that additional 4 basis points coming through and funding and other. So and what you don't know is our Treasurer does is he looks very much to try to make sure that we're managing that kind of liquid asset buffer in the right way to so that we're within the rules we set, which are very strict, but that we do a little bit of a margin maximization.

絕對地。這就是您在本季看到的財政順風，即額外的 4 個基點的到來以及融資和其他。所以，您不知道的是，我們的財務主管會盡力確保我們以正確的方式管理這種流動資產緩衝，以便我們遵守我們設定的規則，這些規則非常嚴格，但我們會稍微實現利潤最大化。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Thanks Ed.

謝謝埃德。

[James Irvine], Redburn Atlantic.

[詹姆斯歐文]，雷德伯恩大西洋出版社。

Hey James.

嘿，詹姆斯。

Hi Katie. Hi, good morning, Paul.

嗨，凱蒂。嗨，早上好，保羅。

Hey.

嘿。

I just had a question on loan growth. I mean, generally you sound pretty positive on it. But one area in particular that's been growing really well is that corporate institutions line, so up very strongly in the quarter. I think versus those were a year ago as well, it's a double digit percentage increase. Is that kind of growth sustainable? I mean, you really think this kind of momentum can continue.

我剛才對貸款成長有疑問。我的意思是，總體來說你對此聽起來非常積極。但有一個領域成長確實非常好，那就是企業機構排隊，因此本季成長非常強勁。我認為與一年前相比，這是一個兩位數的百分比增長。這種成長能持續嗎？我的意思是，你真的認為這種勢頭能夠持續下去。

Okay, thanks James. So as you say, I think the lending growth we've shown this quarter and year-to-date has been encouragingly broad based. Actually, you can see that the mortgage portfolio growing in quarter three, you can see the cards business.

好的，謝謝詹姆斯。正如您所說，我認為本季和年初至今的貸款成長令人鼓舞地廣泛。實際上，您可以看到抵押貸款組合在第三季度有所增長，您還可以看到信用卡業務。

But as you rightly point out, the commercial and institutional franchise has been growing well. I'm particularly pleased actually that the mid-market business has grown for three quarters on the run because to me that's the barometer of the UK economy.

但正如您正確指出的那樣，商業和機構特許經營一直發展良好。事實上，我特別高興中端市場業務連續三個季度成長，因為對我來說，這是英國經濟的晴雨表。

That's the kind of the mid-market customers all around the UK. So to see that growing three quarters in a run is very encouraging. And I think testament to some of the development work we've done around the product and the lending journeys.

這就是英國各地的中端市場客戶。因此，看到連續四個季度實現成長是非常令人鼓舞的。我認為這證明了我們在產品和借貸過程中所做的一些開發工作。

On the true large, the very large corporate and institutional, the nature of that business as you know is it can be a little lumpy. It depends on big transactions. The growth was particularly strong in quarter three. It might not be so strong in quarter four, given the growth that we've seen in quarter three.

對於真正的大型企業、超大型企業和機構而言，如你所知，其業務性質可能會有些不穩定。這取決於大額交易。第三季的成長尤為強勁。考慮到第三季的成長，第四季的表現可能不會那麼強勁。

But what I would say more broadly is if you think about that the lending demand there, it's for things like the energy transition, it's for infrastructure, whether that's physical or digital infrastructure, it's supporting our large corporate clients.

但我想更廣泛地說的是，如果你考慮那裡的貸款需求，它是為了能源轉型，為了基礎設施，無論是實體基礎設施還是數位基礎設施，它都在支持我們的大型企業客戶。

So you would expect through the cycle assuming a healthy economy, demand in that segment to remain robust. And we're very well placed to take advantage of it, given the expertise we have in some of those specialist areas I mentioned. Thanks James.

因此，假設經濟在整個週期內健康，那麼你可以預期該領域的需求將保持強勁。鑑於我們在我提到的一些專業領域所擁有的專業知識，我們完全有能力利用它。謝謝詹姆斯。

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

好的，完美。謝謝。

Jason Napier, UBS.

瑞銀的傑森·納皮爾（Jason Napier）。

Good morning. Well done on a very good set of results that (technical difficulty) the right trends are there. And I think we've probably handled most of the P&L line items so far. Just one area I wanted to probe if I could.

早安.做得很好，取得了非常好的成果（技術難度），表示趨勢正確。我認為到目前為止我們可能已經處理了大部分損益項目。如果可以的話，我只想探究一個領域。

Now the question on C&I grows in the budget next week, there's a lot of talk about quite a lot of investment going to things like infrastructure, a place where banks have a strong heritage. One of the two things you can talk about.

現在，下週預算中有關商業和工業領域的問題越來越多，有很多關於大量投資流向基礎設施等領域的討論，而銀行在基礎設施領域有著悠久的歷史。您可以談論的兩件事之一。

One, does private credit change any of that in terms of competitive dynamics, the share of the debt growth of the banking sector and sort of own. And then secondly, things have changed on that front. There are probably, I don't know, 15 or 20 banks that have now got incomes with private credit funds that they put in place, originate to distribute infrastructure. Is that the right sort of plan to have? Is that part of the SRT future for NatWest? Thanks.

第一，私人信貸是否會改變競爭狀況、銀行部門債務成長份額以及自身狀況？其次，這方面的情況已經改變了。大概有 15 到 20 家銀行，它們透過設立私人信貸基金獲得收入，這些基金用於分配基礎設施。這是正確的計劃嗎？這是 NatWest 的 SRT 未來的一部分嗎？謝謝。

Thanks Jason. I think I got most of that. For your benefit, the line was a bit distorted. I think that I'll answer what I thought the questions were and you can come back and tell me if -- I mean, one was around just a general view on private credit. And then I think you're alluding to, I guess the series of announcements there's been on kind of private credit partnerships, so I'll try and I'll cover those two points.

謝謝傑森。我認為我已經了解了大部分。為了您的方便，這條線有點扭曲了。我想我會回答我所想到的問題，然後你可以回來告訴我——我的意思是，其中一個只是關於私人信貸的一般看法。然後我想你暗示了，我想已經有一系列關於私人信貸合作夥伴關係的公告，所以我將嘗試涵蓋這兩點。

But do let me know if that wasn't it? I think generally obviously there's been a lot of coverage around, I guess the private credit market, given the increasing role that non-banks are playing, whether that's capital to real economy, residential mortgage, resi loans, corporate loans, be that real estate or infrastructure.

但如果不是這樣，請告訴我嗎？我認為，顯然，總體而言，私人信貸市場受到廣泛關注，因為非銀行金融機構發揮越來越大的作用，無論是實體經濟的資本、住宅抵押貸款、住宅貸款、企業貸款，還是房地產或基礎設施。

So there's no doubt it's an important asset class. I think for large incumbent banks like ourselves, it's important to remember that we've been engaging with, I guess with these customers for an extensive period of time. Many of them are customers in themselves.

因此毫無疑問它是一種重要的資產類別。我認為，對於像我們這樣的大型現有銀行來說，重要的是要記住，我們已經與這些客戶合作了很長一段時間。他們中的許多人本身就是顧客。

All the participants that, you know, you know are customers are ours. Some of those have been customers for over 20 years, and both for financing, but also for risk management. So from our perspective, it's not really a new area.

所有參與者，你知道，你知道的客戶都是我們的客戶。其中一些已經是20多年的客戶，不僅為他們提供融資，還為他們提供風險管理。因此從我們的角度來看，這並不是一個新領域。

We think in terms of the business we do. We're very comfortable, we understand the risk and the returns profile. We've also been very considered in the past around the partnerships that we do have. So we do have and have had for quite a long time, almost 10 years actually, some distribution partners in terms of the private credit space to support our commercial lending business, the lending business.

我們從自己所從事的業務的角度來思考。我們非常放心，我們了解風險和回報狀況。過去我們也非常重視現有的合作關係。因此，我們確實擁有並且在相當長一段時間內（實際上已有近 10 年）一些私人信貸領域的分銷合作夥伴來支持我們的商業貸款業務和貸款業務。

But also as I think you alluded to in your second question, to support our RWA and risk management activities. So yeah, we've got a number of partnerships in that space. It helps us from the lending front, helps us on the risk management space.

但我認為您在第二個問題中也提到了這一點，以支持我們的 RWA 和風險管理活動。是的，我們在該領域已經建立了多個合作夥伴關係。它從貸款方面幫助我們，在風險管理方面幫助我們。

There's obvious benefits for us. It allows us to originate and distribute, improves our balance sheet velocity. For the partners, it's very attractive because obviously they can access the distribution that our bankers and relationship managers have across the whole of the UK.

這對我們來說有明顯的好處。它使我們能夠發起和分發，提高我們的資產負債表速度。對於合作夥伴來說，這非常有吸引力，因為他們顯然可以獲得我們銀行家和關係經理在整個英國的分銷網絡。

So it's multiple benefits. We've participated and had partners for a while and in my personal view, it's an asset class that's only going to expand over the course of the median term, given the historic change in regulations, but also the funds that are flowing into those private credit funds. So I hope Jason because it was quite difficult to hear. I hope that was the sense of it.

因此，它有多種益處。我們已經參與並擁有合作夥伴一段時間了，我個人認為，考慮到法規的歷史性變化，以及流入私人信貸基金的資金，這種資產類別只會在中期內擴大。所以我希望傑森，因為這聽起來相當困難。我希望這就是它的意義。

Very, that's perfect. Thank you.

非常，太完美了。謝謝。

Thanks Jason.

謝謝傑森。

I'd now like to hand back to Paul to close the session.

現在我想將會議交還給保羅來結束本次會議。

Okay. Thanks Matt. Thanks everybody. Thanks for joining. Thanks for being very diligent around two questions each. We appreciate that. I hope you have a good Friday, and I hope you enjoy your weekend when it comes. Good to speak to you. Thank you.

好的。謝謝馬特。謝謝大家。感謝您的加入。感謝您對兩個問題的認真回答。我們對此表示感謝。我希望您度過一個愉快的星期五，並希望您享受愉快的週末。很高興和你談話。謝謝。

Thanks guys.

謝謝大家。