NatWest Group PLC (NWG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for joining our full year 2024 fixed income results presentation. I'm joined today by Donal Quaid, our Treasurer; and Paul Pybus, our Head of Debt IR. I will take you through the headlines for the year before moving on to the financials for the fourth quarter. Donal will take you through the balance sheet, capital and liquidity, and then we'll open up for questions.

感謝您參加我們的 2024 年全年固定收益業績示範。今天和我一起參加的是我們的財務主管唐納‧奎德 (Donal Quaid)；以及我們的債務投資者關係主管 Paul Pybus。在介紹第四季度的財務狀況之前，我將先回顧今年的頭條新聞。唐納德 (Donal) 將帶您了解資產負債表、資本和流動性，然後我們將開始回答問題。

I'd like to start by saying that 2024 was a very positive year for the bank. A strong financial performance drove upgrades in our income and return guidance, and we made excellent progress on our three strategic priorities: disciplined growth, bank-wide simplification, together with active balance sheet and risk management.

首先我想說，2024 年對該銀行來說是非常積極的一年。強勁的財務表現推動了我們的收入和回報預期的提升，我們在三大策略重點上取得了優異的進展：有序的成長、全行簡化以及積極的資產負債表和風險管理。

We also carried out two directed buybacks in May and November, which supported a reduction in the government shareholding from 38% to less than 7% now. This makes it likely that NatWest will return to private ownership sometime in 2025, though naturally, any decisions rest with the government. This represents a new chapter for the bank, one which is attracting new investors, and which enables us to put our future focus on driving growth by succeeding with our customers.

我們也在5月和11月進行了兩次定向回購，支持政府持股從38%減少到現在的7%以下。這使得 NatWest 銀行很可能在 2025 年的某個時候恢復私有化，不過當然，任何決定權都在政府手中。這標誌著銀行翻開了新的篇章，它將吸引新的投資者，也使我們能夠將未來的重點放在透過幫助客戶取得成功來推動成長。

So turning to the financial highlights for the year on slide 3. We continue to support customers through the year. And as a result, customer lending grew 3.5% to GBP372 billion. Customer deposits across the three businesses increased 2.9% to GBP431 billion, and assets under management and administration were up 20% to GBP48.9 billion. This customer activity underpins our strong financial performance.

讓我們來看看幻燈片 3 上的年度財務亮點。我們全年將繼續為客戶提供支援。結果，客戶貸款成長3.5%，達到3,720億英鎊。三家企業的客戶存款成長2.9%，至4,310億英鎊，管理和執行的資產成長20%，至489億英鎊。這些客戶活動支撐了我們強勁的財務表現。

We delivered income of GBP14.6 billion, up from GBP14.3 billion in the prior year. Costs were GBP7.9 billion, in line with guidance. This resulted in operating profit of GBP6.2 billion and attributable profit of GBP4.5 billion. Our return on tangible equity was 17.5%, driving strong capital generation and the capacity to announce a final dividend today of 15.5p, bringing the total dividend to 21.5p for the year.

我們的收入為146億英鎊，高於上年的143億英鎊。成本為 79 億英鎊，符合預期。這使得營業利潤達到62億英鎊，應占利潤達到45億英鎊。我們的有形資產回報率為 17.5%，推動了強勁的資本創造，並有能力今天宣布 15.5 便士的末期股息，使全年總股息達到 21.5 便士。

So let me turn now to progress on each of our three strategic priorities, starting with disciplined growth on slide 4. Looking at some examples of our organic growth. Over the year, we increased our customer base by around 500,000 to over 90 million, and we grew both loans and deposits with a six-year annual growth rate of more than 4%.

現在讓我來談談我們三個策略重點的進展情況，首先從投影片 4 上的「有紀律的成長」開始。看看我們有機成長的一些例子。一年來，我們的客戶群增加了約50萬，達到9000多萬，貸款和存款六年來的年增長率都超過4%。

In the retail bank, we attracted new credit card customers, taking our share to 9.7%. And in Private Banking, we attracted net inflows of GBP2.2 billion into our assets under management and administration. Commercial and Institutional grew noninterest income by 10% with higher fees from payments, foreign exchange and debt capital markets. Last year, we completed the acquisition of a GBP2.3 billion prime portfolio of prime residential UK mortgages from Metro Bank, and we expect the Sainsbury's Bank transaction to complete in Q2, adding around 1 million new customers and about GBP2.5 billion of unsecured loans and GBP2.6 billion of savings.

在零售銀行方面，我們吸引了新的信用卡客戶，使我們的份額達到 9.7%。在私人銀行業務方面，我們管理和執行的資產淨流入達 22 億英鎊。商業和機構銀行的非利息收入增加了 10%，得益於支付、外匯和債務資本市場收取更高的費用。去年，我們從大都會銀行（Metro Bank）收購了價值 23 億英鎊的英國優質住宅抵押貸款組合，我們預計與桑斯伯里銀行的交易將於第二季度完成，新增約 100 萬新客戶、約 25 億英鎊無擔保貸款和 26 億英鎊儲蓄。

Turning to slide 5. Our focus on bank-wide simplification is designed to increase efficiency, improve customer experience and create operating leverage. We're investing in further digital transformation to become more agile, faster and responsive to customer needs.

翻到幻燈片 5。我們專注於全行簡化，旨在提高效率、改善客戶體驗和創造經營槓桿。我們正在投資進一步的數位轉型，以變得更靈活、更快，並能更好地滿足客戶需求。

In Retail Banking, eligible customers can now receive a mortgage offer within 24 hours, and we've reduced the average time to make an offer by around 20% during the year. In Private Banking, we are digitizing more savings products, contributing to a tenfold increase in digital net flows to GBP3.5 billion. And in Commercial Banking, we launched a multiyear program to transform our digital channel bank line, giving clients a single point of access to a broad range of products. All this has enabled us to keep costs broadly stable and create additional savings beyond our plan.

在零售銀行業務中，符合條件的客戶現在可以在 24 小時內收到抵押貸款要約，並且我們在全年將平均要約時間縮短了約 20%。在私人銀行方面，我們正在將更多的儲蓄產品數位化，推動數位淨流量增加十倍，達到 35 億英鎊。在商業銀行方面，我們啟動了一項多年計劃，以轉變我們的數位通路銀行業務，讓客戶能夠透過單一存取點存取廣泛的產品。所有這些使我們能夠保持成本大致穩定，並實現超出計劃的額外節省。

Turning to slide 6 and our third priority: to allocate capital dynamically and maintain strong risk management. We reduced our risk-weighted assets by GBP6.8 billion during the year using a range of means, including significant risk transfers, credit risk insurance and asset sales. You can see the strength of our risk management from our average loan impairment rate over six years, which fell to just 9 basis points in 2024. This is the result of a well-diversified loan book with carefully managed exposure to sectors at risk, a prime mortgage book with low loan-to-value ratios and an unsecured portfolio where we maintain a prudent risk profile. Managing RWAs, together with our low cost of risk helped us to drive strong capital generation, enabling us to support our customers, invest in the business, and make distributions to shareholders.

轉到第 6 張投影片，我們的第三個優先事項：動態分配資本並保持強有力的風險管理。我們透過一系列手段，包括重大風險轉移、信用風險保險和資產出售，在年內減少了68億英鎊的風險加權資產。從我們六年的平均貸款減損率可以看出我們風險管理的實力，到 2024 年，這一比率下降至僅 9 個基點。這是由於我們擁有多元化的貸款帳簿、精心管理的高風險領域曝險、優質的抵押貸款帳簿的貸款價值比較低、以及我們保持審慎風險狀況的無擔保投資組合。管理風險加權資產以及較低的風險成本幫助我們實現了強勁的資本生成，使我們能夠支持客戶、投資業務並向股東分配利潤。

Turning to slide 7 and our strategic priorities over the next three years. First, we will continue to grow our business and customer base with a focus on returns and growing share in key segments. We will also continue to look at inorganic opportunities that create further value, whether they offer scale or new capabilities. Second, we will advance our plan for bank-wide simplification by continuing to modernize our technology estate and deploying AI data solutions to improve customer experience and increase efficiency. Third, the strength of our balance sheet and risk management gives us a competitive edge, and we will actively allocate capital more strategically to optimize returns and more dynamically in changing market environments, such as we did with mortgages and commercial lending last year.

轉到第 7 張投影片，我們未來三年的策略重點。首先，我們將繼續擴大我們的業務和客戶群，並專注於回報和增加關鍵領域的份額。我們也將繼續尋找能夠創造更多價值的無機機會，無論它們提供的是規模還是新功能。其次，我們將推進全行簡化計劃，繼續推動我們的技術資產現代化，並部署人工智慧數據解決方案，以改善客戶體驗並提高效率。第三，我們強勁的資產負債表和風險管理為我們提供了競爭優勢，我們將積極地、更具策略性地分配資本，以優化回報，並在不斷變化的市場環境中更具活力，就像我們去年對抵押貸款和商業貸款所做的那樣。

Turning now to financials on slide 8 and the fourth quarter compared to the third. Income excluding all notable items was GBP3.9 billion, up 2.7%. Operating expenses were GBP2.3 billion, including the annual UK bank levy. The impairment charge decreased to GBP66 million or 7 basis points, bringing operating profit before tax to GBP1.5 billion.

現在來看看第 8 張投影片上的財務狀況以及第四季與第三季的比較。扣除所有重要項目的收入為39億英鎊，成長2.7%。營運費用為 23 億英鎊，其中包括英國銀行年度稅費。減損費用減少至6,600萬英鎊或7個基點，使稅前營業利潤達到15億英鎊。

Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was GBP1.2 billion, which includes recognition of a deferred tax asset and a provision release related to Ulster Bank discontinued operations. Our return on tangible equity for the quarter was 19%.

歸屬於普通股股東的利潤為12億英鎊，其中包括確認遞延所得稅資產和與阿爾斯特銀行停止營運相關的撥備釋放。本季我們的有形資產報酬率為 19%。

Turning now to income performance in more detail. In the fourth quarter, income was better than we had initially projected. Growth across the three businesses of GBP82 million was driven by net interest income, which increased 3.1% due to strong growth in average interest-earning assets, higher deposit margins and positive treasury activity as we took advantage of good market conditions. Noninterest income was stable as a strong performance in Commercial and Institutional was offset by seasonally lower fees in Retail Banking.

現在更詳細地討論收入表現。第四季的營收好於我們最初的預期。三項業務的成長均由淨利息收入推動，達到 8,200 萬英鎊。非利息收入保持穩定，因為商業和機構業務的強勁表現被零售銀行業務季節性較低的費用所抵消。

We are pleased with the momentum of income throughout the year, and I'll summarize the outlook for 2025 on slide 10. There are three main drivers of income growth in the year, and Donal will cover some of this in more detail. First, we expect continued disciplined growth across our three businesses, subject to achieving attractive returns. Second, we will actively manage our product pricing as interest rates come down. We expect to continue passing through changes in interest rates to customers. Our plan assumes Bank of England will make three further rate cuts this year, reaching 3.75% by the year-end. Of course, the actual outcome will be different to our assumption. And third, we expect product hedge income to increase by around GBP1 billion in 2025. Taking all of this together, we anticipate 2025 income in the range of GBP15.2 billion to GBP15.7 billion excluding notable items.

我們對全年的收入動能感到滿意，我將在第 10 張投影片上總結 2025 年的展望。今年營收成長的三大驅動力，Donal 將詳細介紹其中的一些。首先，我們預計三項業務將繼續保持穩健的成長，但前提是實現可觀的回報。第二，隨著利率下降，我們將積極管理產品定價。我們預計將繼續將利率變動轉嫁給客戶。我們的計畫假設英國央行今年將進一步降息三次，到年底達到 3.75%。當然，實際結果會與我們的假設不同。第三，我們預計到 2025 年產品對沖收入將增加約 10 億英鎊。綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們預計 2025 年的收入將在 152 億英鎊至 157 億英鎊之間（不包括顯著項目）。

Turning now to costs on slide 11. Other operating expenses were GBP7.9 billion for the year, up 1.1% excluding higher bank levies and retail share offer costs in line with guidance. The main increase came from staff, which account for half of our cost base. This included the average annual wage increase of 4% and our first annual share award for all staff.

現在討論第 11 張投影片上的成本。全年其他營運支出為 79 億英鎊，扣除更高的銀行稅和零售股票發行成本後，上漲 1.1%，符合預期。主要的成長來自於員工成本，員工成本占我們成本基礎的一半。其中包括每年平均 4% 的薪資成長和我們為所有員工提供的首份年度股票獎勵。

In 2025, we expect other operating expenses to be around GBP8 billion plus around GBP100 million of additional one-off costs in relation to the Metro and Sainsbury's Bank portfolios. As you would expect, we will continue to mitigate cost inflation by making further savings.

2025 年，我們預計其他營運費用約為 80 億英鎊，再加上與 Metro 和 Sainsbury's Bank 投資組合相關的約 1 億英鎊額外一次性成本。正如您所期望的，我們將繼續透過進一步節省來緩解成本上漲。

I'd like to move on now to impairments. We have reviewed and made some small adjustments to our economic scenarios, both forecast and relative weightings. Our outlook for the macro environment assumes moderate growth, higher for longer rates and a resilient labor market. We reported a net impairment charge of GBP359 million for 2024, equivalent to 9 basis points of loans. And our Stage 3 loan impairment rate remains historically low.

我現在想繼續討論損害問題。我們已經審查了我們的經濟情景，並對其預測和相對權重做了一些小的調整。我們對宏觀環境的展望是：經濟成長保持溫和，利率長期維持高位，勞動市場保持彈性。我們報告 2024 年的淨減損費用為 3.59 億英鎊，相當於貸款的 9 個基點。我們第三階段的貸款減損率仍處於歷史低點。

Our balance sheet provision for expected credit loss includes GBP299 million of post-model adjustments for economic uncertainty, a year-on-year reduction of GBP130 million. The current performance of the book, combined with our updated economic outlook, means we are expecting a loan impairment rate below 20 basis points in 2025.

我們的資產負債表預期信用損失準備金包括2.99億英鎊的經濟不確定性模型後調整，較去年同期減少1.3億英鎊。目前帳面表現加上我們最新的經濟展望意味著我們預計 2025 年貸款減損率將低於 20 個基點。

I'd like to finish with guidance on slide 13. In 2025, we expect income excluding notable items to be in the range of GBP15.2 billion to GBP15.7 billion; other operating expenses to be around GBP8 billion plus around GBP100 million of onetime inorganic costs; and the loan impairment rate to be below 20 basis points, delivering a return on tangible equity of 15% to 16%. We expect RWAs to be between GBP190 billion and GBP195 billion at the end of 2025. We intend to increase our dividend ratio to around 50% from 2025 onwards with buybacks remaining a means to distribute surplus capital. And we are targeting a 2027 return on tangible equity of more than 15%.

我想以第 13 張投影片上的指導作為結束。2025年，我們預計不包括顯著項目的收入將在152億英鎊至157億英鎊之間；其他營運費用約 80 億英鎊，加上約 1 億英鎊的一次性無機成本；貸款減損率控制在20個基點以下，有形資產報酬率達15%-16%。我們預計，到 2025 年底，風險加權資產將在 1,900 億英鎊至 1,950 億英鎊之間。我們計劃從 2025 年起將股息率提高到 50% 左右，同時仍透過回購來分配剩餘資本。我們的目標是到 2027 年有形資產報酬率達到 15% 以上。

And with that, I'll hand over to Donal.

現在我將把發言權交給唐納德。

Thanks, Katie. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining today's call. I will start by sharing some highlights for the full year before moving into more detail on the balance sheet, covering capital, liquidity, and deposits. I will then give guidance on our funding plans for the year ahead.

謝謝，凱蒂。下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我將首先分享全年的一些亮點，然後再詳細介紹資產負債表，包括資本、流動性和存款。然後我將對我們未來一年的融資計劃提供指導。

Starting with an overview of the key metrics on slide 15. We ended the year with strong capital, MREL and leverage positions comfortably above the regulatory minimum with a CET1 ratio of 13.6%, a total capital ratio of 19.7%, a total MREL ratio of 33% and a leverage ratio of 5%. Our liquidity coverage ratio was 150%, giving us comfortable surplus over minimum requirements. Our loan-to-deposit ratio was 85% and our net stable funding ratio was 137%. The group's funding is very well diversified with a strong retail, private and corporate deposit franchise as we ended the year with around GBP434 billion of customer deposits.

從投影片 15 上的關鍵指標概述開始。我們以強勁的資本、MREL 和槓桿率結束了這一財年，遠高於監管最低標準，其中 CET1 比率為 13.6%，總資本比率為 19.7%，總 MREL 比率為 33%，槓桿率為 5%。我們的流動性覆蓋率為150%，遠遠超出最低要求。我們的貸存比率為85%，淨穩定資金比率為137%。該集團的資金來源非常多樣化，擁有強大的零售、私人和企業存款特許經營權，截至年底，我們的客戶存款約為4,340億英鎊。

Our wholesale funding was GBP86 billion at the year-end, and we successfully completed our 2024 funding plan with GBP7.5 billion equivalent of benchmark issuance from the holding company across senior MREL, AT1 and Tier 2 capital securities and GBP5.8 billion equivalent from our operating company, NatWest Markets.

我們的批發融資在年底為 860 億英鎊，並成功完成了 2024 年融資計劃，其中控股公司發行了相當於 75 億英鎊的高級 MREL、AT1 和 Tier 2 資本證券的基準融資，而我們的營運公司 NatWest Markets 發行了相當於 58 億英鎊的基準融資。

We also issued a GBP750 million covered bond from NatWest Bank, our first since 2019. Thank you for your continued support for our transactions. In November, I was pleased to see further progress in our credit ratings with Fitch moving its outlook from stable to positive across all rated entities.

我們還發行了 NatWest 銀行發行的 7.5 億英鎊抵押債券，這是我們自 2019 年以來的第一筆債券。感謝您一直以來對我們交易的支持。11 月份，我很高興看到我們的信用評級取得進一步進展，惠譽將所有受評實體的評級展望從穩定上調至正面。

Turning to our capital and leverage positions on slide 16. Our CET1 ratio at the end of the year was 13.6%, within our target range of 13% to 14%. We operate with 310 basis points of headroom above the maximum distributable amount of 10.5%, equivalent to GBP5.7 billion of nominal CET1, supported by capital generation of 243 basis points this year. Our UK leverage ratio was stable at 5%, leaving around 115 basis points of headroom above the Bank of England minimum requirement.

第 16 頁上是我們的資本和槓桿狀況。我們年底的 CET1 比率為 13.6%，處於 13% 至 14% 的目標範圍內。我們的營運空間比最高可分配金額 10.5% 還高出 310 個基點，相當於 57 億英鎊的名義 CET1，並由今年 243 個基點的資本生成支持。我們的英國槓桿率穩定在 5%，比英格蘭銀行的最低要求高出約 115 個基點。

The slide also shows the impact of the other systemically important institution buffer applied to NatWest Holdings that results in a group risk add-on for NatWest Group of 1.2% for CET1 and 40 basis points for leverage. Although not part of minimum ratio requirements or combined buffer requirements for NatWest Group, it does form part of our minimum supervisory requirements, resulting in a buffer of 190 basis points or GBP3.5 billion of nominal CET1 capital and 75 basis points for leverage.

幻燈片也展示了對 NatWest Holdings 應用的其他系統重要性機構緩衝的影響，這導致 NatWest Group 的 CET1 集團風險附加為 1.2%，槓桿為 40 個基點。雖然它不屬於 NatWest Group 的最低比率要求或綜合緩衝要求，但它確實構成了我們的最低監管要求的一部分，從而導致名義 CET1 資本緩衝為 190 個基點或 35 億英鎊，槓桿率為 75 個基點。

Turning to the drivers of the CET1 ratio on slide 17. We ended the year with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.6%, up from 13.4% at the end of 2023, equivalent to GBP24.9 billion of nominal CET1 capital. In 2024, we generated 243 basis points of capital before distributions to shareholders.

轉向幻燈片 17 上的 CET1 比率的驅動因素。截至去年底，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 13.6%，高於 2023 年底的 13.4%，相當於名目 CET1 資本 249 億英鎊。2024 年，我們在向股東分配之前產生了 243 個基點的資本。

Distributions to shareholders were equivalent to 218 basis points through ordinary dividends and directed buybacks. Risk-weighted assets were broadly stable in the year at GBP183.2 billion. Business movements, which reflect our strong organic lending growth added GBP6 billion of risk-weighted assets and the Metro Bank mortgage portfolio added a further GBP0.9 billion. These increases were largely offset by active capital management, which contributed to a GBP6.8 billion reduction in RWAs with a number of actions successfully completed in the year through different levers, including four significant risk transfer transactions.

透過普通股利和定向回購向股東分配相當於 218 個基點。風險加權資產全年基本穩定，為1832億英鎊。業務變動反映了我們強勁的有機貸款成長，增加了 60 億英鎊的風險加權資產，而大都會銀行抵押貸款組合又增加了 9 億英鎊。這些成長在很大程度上被積極的資本管理所抵消，積極的資本管理有助於將風險加權資產減少 68 億英鎊，並透過不同槓桿在一年內成功完成了一系列行動，包括四項重大風險轉移交易。

Following the delay in implementation of Basel 3.1 to January 1, 2027, we now expect risk-weighted assets of between GBP190 million and GBP195 billion at the end of 2025, although where we land within that range will depend on a number of factors, including the timing and quantum of CRD4 impacts.

隨著巴塞爾協議 3.1 的實施被推遲至 2027 年 1 月 1 日，我們目前預計 2025 年底風險加權資產將在 1.9 億英鎊至 1950 億英鎊之間，儘管我們在這個範圍內的具體位置將取決於許多因素，包括 CRD4 影響的時間和量。

Turning to our capital position on slide 18. We currently have an AT1 ratio of 2.9% with GBP5.3 billion of securities outstanding. Two of these securities with a total nominal of GBP2.65 billion have their first call periods commencing in the second half of this year. Our Tier 2 ratio was 3.2% with GBP5.9 billion of securities outstanding. We are currently running with excess headroom in AT1 and Tier 2 compared to our minimum requirements, having taken advantage of very positive market dynamics last year. However, over time, we expect to return to optimal levels of AT1 and Tier 2 capital relative to our minimum requirements.

轉向第 18 頁投影片上的我們的資本狀況。我們目前的 AT1 比率為 2.9%，未償還證券總額為 53 億英鎊。其中兩筆證券的總名目價值為 26.5 億英鎊，其首個贖回期將於今年下半年開始。我們的二級資本比率為 3.2%，未償還證券總額為 59 億英鎊。由於去年我們充分利用了非常積極的市場動態，因此與最低要求相比，我們目前在 AT1 和 Tier 2 方面還有剩餘空間。然而，隨著時間的推移，我們預計 AT1 和 Tier 2 資本將恢復到相對於最低要求的最佳水準。

Turning to our total MREL position on slide 19. Our total MREL continues to look very healthy at 33%, significantly higher than our risk-weighted asset requirements, leaving us well positioned for the expected growth in risk-weighted assets by the end of 2025. Having built out the maturity curve of our MREL stack, we have an annual refinancing requirement of GBP4 billion to GBP5 billion over the next few years.

轉向幻燈片 19 上的我們的整體 MREL 立場。我們的總 MREL 繼續保持 33% 的非常健康水平，遠高於我們的風險加權資產要求，這讓我們為 2025 年底預期的風險加權資產成長做好了準備。在建造了我們的 MREL 堆疊的到期曲線後，我們未來幾年每年的再融資需求為 40 億至 50 億英鎊。

Turning to loan growth on slide 20. Our solid capital and liquidity position leaves us well placed to support our customers. And gross loans to customers across our three businesses increased 3.5% or GBP12.7 billion to GBP372 billion. There was strong growth in Commercial and Institutional and Personal Unsecured Lending throughout the year, and we returned to growth in mortgages in the second half. In Commercial and Institutional, we grew lending by GBP12 billion, excluding the impact of repayment of government loan schemes, primarily in Commercial Mid-market and Corporate Institutions.

第 20 頁是貸款成長情況。我們雄厚的資本和流動性狀況使我們能夠為客戶提供良好的支援。我們三項業務的客戶總貸款增加了 3.5% 或 127 億英鎊，達到 3,720 億英鎊。全年商業、機構和個人無擔保貸款強勁成長，下半年抵押貸款又恢復成長。在商業和機構領域，不包括償還政府貸款計畫的影響，我們的貸款增加了 120 億英鎊，主要集中在商業中型市場和企業機構。

Turning to liquidity on slide 21. Our liquidity position remains very strong. At the end of 2024, the LCR ratio was 150% or 151% on a 12-month rolling average, reflecting around GBP53 billion of surplus primary liquidity above minimum requirements. Our total liquidity portfolio was GBP222 billion, comprising primary liquidity of GBP161 billion and secondary liquidity of GBP61 billion. Primary liquidity increased during the year, driven by growth in customer deposits together with HoldCo and OpCo issuance, partially offset by increased lending, the Metro Bank mortgage portfolio acquisition and capital distributions. Secondary liquidity reduced to the normal amortization of collateral prepositioned at the Bank of England.

在第 21 張投影片上討論流動性。我們的流動性狀況依然強勁。截至 2024 年底，LCR 比率為 150%，或 12 個月滾動平均值為 151%，反映出超過最低要求的剩餘初級流動性約 530 億英鎊。我們的總流動性組合為 2,220 億英鎊，其中包括 1,610 億英鎊的一級流動性和 610 億英鎊的二級流動性。受客戶存款以及 HoldCo 和 OpCo 發行量成長的推動，一級流動性在年內有所增加，但被貸款增加、大都會銀行抵押貸款組合收購和資本分配部分抵消。二級流動性減少至英格蘭銀行預先存放的抵押品的正常攤銷。

On slide 22, we provide a detailed breakdown of our primary liquidity. Cash balances of GBP89 billion placed with central banks represent around 55% of total primary liquidity with level 1 high-quality governments and SSA bonds of GBP58.8 billion, making up a further 37%. The remaining primary liquidity is a smaller percentage of level 1 high-quality cover bonds and Level 2 LCR securities. Our central bank cash balances are solely denominated in sterling and euros with the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, and our security balances are primarily held in core currencies, including sterling, euros, and US dollars.

在投影片 22 上，我們提供了主要流動性的詳細分類。存放在中央銀行的現金餘額為 890 億英鎊，約佔一級流動性總額的 55%，其中一級優質政府債券和 SSA 債券為 588 億英鎊，佔 37%。剩餘的一級流動性是較小比例的一級高品質擔保債券和二級 LCR 證券。我們的中央銀行現金餘額僅以英鎊和歐元計價，存放在英格蘭銀行和歐洲中央銀行，我們的證券餘額主要以核心貨幣持有，包括英鎊、歐元和美元。

One point to call out here is that the mix of cash and securities in any given quarter is impacted by both active investment allocation decisions in treasury between cash and securities and the net treasury repo activity.

這裡需要指出的一點是，任何一個季度的現金和證券的組合都會受到現金和證券之間的主動投資分配決策以及淨國庫回購活動的影響。

Looking at customer deposits on slide 23. We operate with a strong and diverse deposit franchise with a mix of retail, private and commercial deposits across interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing product offerings. Customer deposits across our three businesses were GBP431.3 billion at the end of the year, up GBP12.2 billion or 3% year-on-year with a gradual increase in balances every quarter. Growth in the fourth quarter was mainly driven by instant access accounts across both Retail and Private Banking.

查看投影片 23 上的客戶存款。我們擁有強大且多樣化的存款特許經營權，提供包括零售、私人和商業存款在內的計息和無息產品。截至年底，我們三項業務的客戶存款總額為4,313億英鎊，比去年同期增加122億英鎊，成長3％，且餘額每季都在逐步增加。第四季的成長主要得益於零售銀行和私人銀行的即時存取帳戶。

There has been a gradual shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits throughout the year, but the pace of migration has been significantly slower than 2023 and has continued slowing throughout 2024. Noninterest-bearing balances were 31% of the total, down from 34% at the start of the year, and term accounts were stable at around 16% of the total.

全年都存在著從無利息存款到有息存款逐漸轉變的情況，但遷移速度明顯慢於 2023 年，並在 2024 年全年持續放緩。非計息餘額佔總額的 31%，低於年初的 34%，定期帳戶穩定在總額的 16% 左右。

On slide 24, you will see the structural hedge continues to be an important driver of income as we move forward. As we show in the chart, before taking into account further reinvestment during 2025, around 80% of hedges are already written for 2025. And these will deliver income of GBP3.4 billion, already GBP400 million above 2024 with additional growth to come.

在第 24 張投影片上，您將看到，隨著我們繼續前進，結構性對沖將繼續成為收入的重要驅動力。正如我們在圖表中所顯示的，在考慮 2025 年的進一步再投資之前，大約 80% 的對沖已經為 2025 年做好了準備。這些將帶來34億英鎊的收入，到2024年已經超過4億英鎊，未來還會進一步成長。

When the impact of the additional 20% of reinvestment hedges this year is included, we expect 2025 product hedge income to be around GBP1 billion higher than 2024. The product hedge notional reduced to GBP172 billion during the year, which reflects our 12-month look back of average eligible deposits. We expect the notional to be broadly stable in 2025 based on our anticipation of a more stable deposit mix. Beyond 2025, we expect annual growth in product structural hedge income each year through 2027.

當計入今年額外20%再投資對沖的影響時，我們預計2025年產品對沖收入將比2024年高出約10億英鎊。產品對沖名目金額在年內減少至1,720億英鎊，這反映了我們對12個月平均合格存款的回顧。根據我們對更穩定的存款組合的預期，我們預計名目金額在 2025 年將大致保持穩定。2025 年以後，我們預計到 2027 年產品結構對沖收入每年都會成長。

Turning to slide 25 and our funding composition. Although customer deposits account for over 80% of the group's funding, we also have access to stable and diverse sources of wholesale funding across a range of products, maturities and currencies. As part of that mix, we have GBP12 billion currently drawn under the Bank of England's TFSME scheme, with GBP3.8 billion repayable in March '25 and the remainder repayable from 2027. Excluding TFSME, the large majority of our wholesale funding is MREL and capital issuance from NatWest Group and senior unsecured issuance from NatWest Markets.

翻到第 25 張投影片，看看我們的資金組成。雖然客戶存款佔集團資金的80%以上，但我們也可以獲得涵蓋各種產品、期限和貨幣的穩定且多樣化的批發融資來源。作為該組合的一部分，我們目前根據英格蘭銀行的 TFSME 計劃提取了 120 億英鎊，其中 38 億英鎊將於 2025 年 3 月償還，剩餘部分將於 2027 年開始償還。除 TFSME 外，我們的批發融資絕大部分是 MREL 和來自 NatWest Group 的資本發行以及來自 NatWest Markets 的高級無擔保發行。

On slide 26, you can see that we were very active in 2024 in the wholesale funding markets, issuing from both the group holding company and operating entities. From NatWest Group, we have issued GBP4.8 billion equivalent in senior MREL against our guidance of GBP4 billion to GBP5 billion for the year.

在投影片 26 上，您可以看到我們在 2024 年的批發融資市場非常活躍，由集團控股公司和營運實體發行。我們已從 NatWest Group 發行了等值於 48 億英鎊的高級 MREL，而我們今年的預期發行量為 40 億至 50 億英鎊。

In addition to issuing MREL, we also issued GBP1.75 billion of AT1 and GBP1.3 billion equivalent of Tier 2 capital during the year. While for NatWest Markets plc, we issued around GBP5.8 billion equivalent in sterling, euro, dollar and Swiss francs against our GBP3 billion to GBP5 billion guidance for 2024. And from NatWest Bank, we issued a GBP750 million covered bond within our guidance of up to GBP1 billion for the year.

除了發行 MREL 外，我們還在年內發行了 17.5 億英鎊的 AT1 和等值 13 億英鎊的二級資本。而對於 NatWest Markets plc，我們發行了約 58 億英鎊等值的英鎊、歐元、美元和瑞士法郎，而我們對 2024 年的預期是 30 億至 50 億英鎊。我們在 NatWest 銀行發行了價值 7.5 億英鎊的抵押債券，年度發行額度最高可達 10 億英鎊。

Turning now to our 2025 funding requirements on slide 27. From NatWest Group, we expect our senior MREL issuance to be in the range of GBP4 billion to GBP5 billion this year, primarily to refinance maturing securities. On capital, we plan to be active in both AT1 and Tier 2 this year and expect to issue around GBP1 billion equivalent in each, providing flexibility for expected increases in risk-weighted assets and looking ahead to upcoming calls later in the year.

現在來看看第 27 張投影片上的 2025 年資金需求。我們預計，NatWest Group 今年的高級 MREL 發行量將在 40 億英鎊至 50 億英鎊之間，主要用於到期證券的再融資。在資本方面，我們計劃今年積極參與 AT1 和 Tier 2 資本市場，預計分別發行約 10 億英鎊等值資金，為風險加權資產的預期增長提供靈活性，並展望今年晚些時候的即將到來的贖回。

Actual issuance, as always, will be subject to both the evolution of risk-weighted assets, market conditions and any decisions on calls. From our operating company, NatWest Markets will have public benchmark senior unsecured funding requirements of GBP4 billion to GBP5 billion in 2025, primarily to refinance maturing legacy debt, of which we have already issued EUR1 billion in January.

一如既往，實際發行將取決於風險加權資產的變化、市場條件和任何贖回決定。從我們的營運公司來看，NatWest Markets 在 2025 年將有 40 億至 50 億英鎊的公共基準優先無擔保融資需求，主要用於再融資到期的遺留債務，其中我們已經在 1 月份發行了 10 億歐元。

With that, we can open up for questions.

這樣，我們就可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) We're going to start with two questions from Lee Street at Citi.

（操作員指示）我們將從花旗銀行李街的兩個問題開始。

Firstly, looking across your two main business lines of retail and commercial, in what product does it make most sense to grow when considering the risk-adjusted returns?

首先，縱觀您的零售和商業兩條主要業務線，考慮到風險調整後的回報，哪種產品最有發展前景？

Secondly, there was some talk of inorganic growth on the call this morning and the comment was that the hurdles rates are high, and opportunities compared it to shareholder distributions. Can you explain simply how you make these assessments?

其次，今天早上的電話會議上談到了無機成長，評論稱最低收益率很高，而且機會與股東分配相比。您能簡單解釋一下您是如何做出這些評估的嗎？

Sure. Thanks very much, Lee, for your question. So a couple of things. When you look at a product, obviously, you'll be familiar with the different risk weightings that you can see. Mortgage is obviously lower and then you've got credit cards a bit higher, and then within commercial, it will vary across the different sectors.

當然。李先生，非常感謝您的提問。有幾件事。當您查看某種產品時，顯然您會熟悉您所能看到的不同風險權重。抵押貸款顯然較低，而信用卡則稍高一些，而在商業領域，不同行業之間也會有所不同。

I guess the thing to think about is that we are broad spectrum bank across the whole sort of country and region. So it's not as simple to say, we'll grow into that one or this one. What we're really trying to seek is to have real balance across the book. What you do also see, though, and it's a great example in mortgages at the tail end of 2023, where we actually pulled out because we weren't happy with the risk-adjusted return that was happening there, where margins were coming under a lot more pressure. So I would say that we don't have one product preference to another product.

我想要考慮的是，我們是一家業務遍及整個國家和地區的多元化銀行。因此，我們不能簡單地說我們會成長為那個或那個。我們真正想要追求的是整本書的真正平衡。不過，您也確實看到了，這是一個很好的例子，即 2023 年底的抵押貸款，我們實際上退出了，因為我們對當時的風險調整回報不滿意，利潤率面臨著更大的壓力。所以我想說，我們對某種產品沒有偏好。

They all have to kind of hit a hurdle. And then once you're above that, we will look to see where we can get the returns and kind of pivot a little bit. But very mindful that we want to make sure that we maintain the diversification of the balance sheet as well. In terms of inorganic, what we look for there is a very high kind of hurdle rate in terms of making any acquisitions. And we do compare it to the other uses we could do for that investment.

他們都必須克服某種障礙。然後，一旦你超過了這個目標，我們就會看看我們可以在哪裡獲得回報，並稍微調整一下。但我們非常清楚，我們要確保維持資產負債表的多樣化。就無機資本而言，我們尋求的是進行任何收購時都有非常高的回報率。我們確實將其與該投資的其他用途進行了比較。

So a good example would be something like when you look at the direct buybacks and actually what kind of IRR and cost of investment you would get from those compared to if you're looking at more of a traditional acquisition. We've talked previously that internally, we kind of worked on 11%, 12%. Obviously, now that we're sitting with our guidance of greater than 15%, you've got to be mindful of that as you go through. But it's very much comparing the different opportunities.

因此，一個很好的例子是，當您查看直接回購時，與傳統收購相比，您實際上可以從中獲得什麼樣的 IRR 和投資成本。我們之前內部討論過，我們的工作重點是 11%、12%。顯然，既然我們目前的預期是超過 15%，那麼大家在執行過程中必須注意這一點。但這主要是比較不同的機會。

And you know that we did two transactions this year, being the Sainsbury's portfolio and the Metro Bank book as well. They compared well. So therefore, we were very happy to do those transactions. I'm happy to go to the next question. Thanks, Lee.

你知道我們今年做了兩筆交易，分別是塞恩斯伯里的投資組合和大都會銀行的帳簿。他們相比之下表現不錯。因此，我們非常高興進行這些交易。我很高興回答下一個問題。謝謝，李。

Robert Smalley. (Operator Instructions)

羅伯特·斯莫利。（操作員指令）

Hi. Sorry about that. A couple. On the call this morning, there was a discussion of GBP330 million in PMAs that will be released over time. Could you talk a little bit about that and what -- where you see that going forward, particularly in light of the projected loan loss provisions for 2025? My first question.

你好。很抱歉。一對。在今天上午的電話會議上，討論了將分階段發放的 3.3 億英鎊 PMA。您能否稍微談談這一點以及您對未來發展的看法，特別是考慮到 2025 年預計的貸款損失準備？我的第一個問題。

And then secondly, just in terms of issuance, I did notice that you haven't really visited the Aussie or Sing dollar market for Tier 2 yet. Can we expect that the Tier 2 and AT1 will be generally dollars or euros, potentially some sterling? Thanks.

其次，就發行而言，我確實注意到您還沒有真正訪問過二級市場的澳元或新加坡元市場。我們是否可以預期 Tier 2 和 AT1 通常是美元或歐元，也可能是一些英鎊？謝謝。

Sure. Thanks, Robert. Lovely to hear your voice as ever. So if I look at the PMA, so we've got GBP299 million left of the kind of PMAs which we have called for economic uncertainty. There are different PMAs that come up because of different events.

當然。謝謝，羅伯特。很高興聽到你的聲音。所以如果我看一下 PMA，我們還剩下 2.99 億英鎊的 PMA，這是我們所呼籲的針對經濟不確定性的 PMA。由於不同的事件而出現不同的 PMA。

They're much more kind of cost of living or inflationary type PMAs today. Historically, they've been more COVID related, and then we had way back in time a Brexit one as well. So what we've always said about these is that they would be a kind of a multi-quarter event in terms of release. What you can see in this last quarter is that we released about GBP130 million of them. And that wasn't done quarter-by-quarter by any means.

如今，它們更像是生活成本或通貨膨脹類型的 PMA。從歷史上看，這些事件更與新冠疫情有關，而很久以前我們也曾經歷過英國脫歐事件。因此，我們一直在說，從發布的角度來看，它們將是一種跨季度的活動。您可以看到，我們在上個季度發行了約 1.3 億英鎊。而且這絕對不是逐季完成的。

It was -- I think it was quite a bit in Q3 and a little bit in Q2, but then very little -- in fact, the number went up very slightly in Q4. So when we consider the guidance of less than 20 basis points, we have a little bit of an eye to that, but we don't necessarily see any typical or planned release of those along a particular time line. So we do just have a look at them each quarter and just sort of see where are we in terms of the causal factors that caused them to be created and how are we sitting in that space just now. But they are a slight feature of the guidance that we've given, but not necessarily very meaningfully.

我認為在第三季度這一數字相當大，在第二季度有一點，但之後就很少了——事實上，在第四季度這一數字略有上升。因此，當我們考慮低於 20 個基點的指導時，我們對此有一點關注，但我們不一定會看到在特定時間線上有任何典型或計劃的發布。因此，我們每季都會對它們進行查看，看看導致它們產生的因果因素是什麼，以及我們現在處於什麼位置。但它們只是我們所給予的指導的一個小特徵，但不一定非常有意義。

I take the -- hi, Robert. Good to hear from you. On AT1, Tier 2, I think your assumption is probably right, but we expect dollars, euros and sterling to take up probably the large majority of the issuance of what we're laying out for the year for AT1 and Tier 2. We will obviously keep our options open on Aussie and Sing in Tier 2 if there is opportunities there, particularly maybe if it's a smaller sized transaction that we want to do.

我接受──嗨，羅伯特。很高興收到你的來信。關於 AT1、Tier 2，我認為您的假設可能是正確的，但我們預計美元、歐元和英鎊可能會佔據我們今年為 AT1 和 Tier 2 安排的發行量的絕大部分。如果有機會，我們顯然會保留對 Tier 2 中的 Aussie 和 Sing 的選擇權，特別是如果我們想進行規模較小的交易。

And maybe just while we're on the topic of issuance on MREL, again, I expect probably the large majority to be issued across the three core currencies. But again, we would like to -- we'd like to look at Japanese yen, I think, from an MREL perspective, and also, we'll look at options in other currencies if they are available during the year. Thanks for the question.

也許就在我們討論 MREL 發行問題時，我再次預期絕大多數債券將以三種核心貨幣發行。但同樣，我想，我們希望從 MREL 的角度來看待日元，同時，如果今年有其他貨幣的選擇，我們也會考慮這些貨幣。謝謝你的提問。

Terrific. Thanks.

了不起。謝謝。

Alexander Latter, GIB Asset Management.

亞歷山大·萊特（Alexander Latter），GIB 資產管理公司。

Hi, there. And thanks for being in the call. Just wanted to follow up on Robert's question and then one more. So on the sort of PMA point, if I look at your kind of Stage 2 coverage or your Stage 1 plus 2 coverage, those numbers are lower than they've kind of ever been in the IFRS 9 era. So -- and that includes kind of the remaining PMAs.

你好呀。感謝您參加電話會議。我只是想跟進羅伯特的問題，然後再問一個。因此，就 PMA 點而言，如果我查看您的第 2 階段覆蓋範圍或第 1 階段加第 2 階段覆蓋範圍，這些數字低於 IFRS 9 時代的任何時候。所以 — — 這包括剩餘的 PMA。

And then if I kind of look -- just go back to 2019 when PMAs weren't such a big deal or at least not in the broader market, you were still quite heavily covered versus where you are now despite having more optimistic weighted average scenarios than you currently have. So can you just comment a little bit around sort of whether or not the models have been materially changed in terms of their conservatism or their sensitivities?

然後，如果我回顧一下 2019 年，當時 PMA 並不是什麼大問題，或者至少在更廣泛的市場中不是這樣，儘管加權平均情景比目前更為樂觀，但與現在相比，您的覆蓋範圍仍然相當廣泛。那麼您能否稍微評論一下這些模型在保守性或敏感性方面是否發生了實質的改變？

I'm just thinking that kind of if those PMAs go away again, then you're getting to sort of very thin levels of coverage in this kind of era of accounting. And then the sort of add on to that, I'd just note that your Stage 2 loans ticked up a little bit in the quarter. It seems to be coming from sort of the sovereign book. So if there's any sort of comment on that.

我只是在想，如果這些 PMA 再次消失，那麼在這種會計時代，你的覆蓋範圍就會變得非常薄弱。然後對此進行補充，我只想指出，您的第二階段貸款在本季度略有增加。它似乎來自某種主權書。如果對此有任何評論。

And then finally, on capital, so 190 bps to the requirement, 150 bps if you were at the bottom end of your target range. That's now screening at some of the lowest levels in Europe when I look across kind of the continent. What makes you comfortable with -- if you hit 13% capital running at 150 bps over the capital requirement?

最後，關於資本，如果達到目標範圍的底端，則為 190 個基點，如果達到目標範圍的底端，則為 150 個基點。當我放眼整個歐洲大陸時，這部電影的放映水準目前是歐洲最低的。如果您的資本達到 13%，並且以超過資本要求 150 個基點的速度運行，您會感到滿意嗎？

Donal, do you want to start with --

Donal，你想先--

Why don't I start --

我為什麼不開始--

I'll come back on the PMA.

我會回來參加 PMA。

Yes. On -- Alex, on capital, very, very comfortable with both our CET1, I suppose, endpoint, 13.6%, but also our target of 13% to 14% and the buffers we run. I think even at the 13% that you're alluding to, very, very comfortable with the extent of buffers. And I suppose what you're talking to there around screening across the rest of Europe, one thing we always call out is the capital stack in the UK. We've got 2%.

是的。關於資本，Alex，我對我們的 CET1 終點（我想是 13.6%）以及我們的 13% 至 14% 的目標和我們運行的緩衝區都非常非常滿意。我認為，即使達到您所暗示的 13%，緩衝程度也非常令人滿意。我想，你們在談論歐洲其他地區的放映情況時，我們總是提到英國的資本堆疊。我們有2%。

UK countercyclical buffer. We're obviously seeing smaller countercyclicals across different European jurisdictions. And we're also carrying 120 basis points of OSSI group add-on, which feeds into our 11.7% supervision requirement. I think even at the lower point of our 13%, it's still, as you say, 130 basis points, it's GBP2.4 billion of nominal capital, just to put it in that term.

英國逆週期緩衝。我們明顯看到，不同歐洲司法管轄區的逆週期調節效果正在減弱。我們也承擔了 120 個基點的 OSSI 集團附加費，以滿足我們 11.7% 的監管要求。我認為，即使在我們 13% 的較低點，它仍然像你說的一樣，有 130 個基點，也就是 24 億英鎊的名義資本，只是用這個術語來說。

So I think while the ratio is also -- is very important. I think it's equally important to look at the amount of nominal capital held and also the extent of capital generation that the underlying business is generating on an annual basis. Again, at the end of 2024, we held GBP25 billion of nominal capital and generated 234 basis points of capital. That's GBP1 billion of nominal capital per quarter in terms of capital generation. And I think the other element is just the derisking of the balance sheet that's taken place over the last few years.

因此我認為比例也很重要。我認為，查看所持有的名目資本數量以及基礎業務每年產生的資本產生程度同樣重要。再一次，截至 2024 年底，我們持有 250 億英鎊的名義資本，並產生了 234 個基點的資本。從資本創造角度來看，這意味著每季的名目資本為10億英鎊。我認為另一個因素是過去幾年資產負債表的風險降低。

You've seen that evidence not only in the cost of risk of 9 basis points last year, but also evident from the reduction in stress drawdown in the Bank of England stress test over the last number of years as well. So I think all of that should just give plenty of comfort from a fixed income perspective in terms of our capital position and the buffers we run.

您不僅可以從去年 9 個基點的風險成本中看到這項證據，而且還可以從過去幾年英格蘭銀行壓力測試中壓力下降的減少中看出這一點。因此，我認為從固定收益的角度來看，所有這些都應該為我們的資本狀況和我們所運行的緩衝帶來足夠的安慰。

Thanks very much, Donal. Alexander, when I look at the PMAs and the models,and kind of coverage overall, we are comfortable. And I think it's important also to go back and think a little bit about what's happened to our book since kind of 2019. So certainly, our mortgage book is growing. You'd expect that to be lower levels of impairments.

非常感謝，唐納德。亞歷山大，當我看到 PMA 和模型以及整體覆蓋範圍時，我們感到很滿意。我認為回顧一下 2019 年以來我們的書發生了什麼也很重要。因此，我們的抵押貸款帳戶肯定會在成長。您可能期望損傷程度較低。

Importantly, Ulster Bank has exited, and that was an area that we had higher levels of impairment, so therefore higher levels of coverage. Also you use more risk-weighted assets as well. So the changing of those will probably be why you see that kind of -- when you look on a five- or six-year basis, they kind of fall in the coverage levels. We're very comfortable how our coverage looks today as we kind of look at that. The models are very continuously updated.

重要的是，阿爾斯特銀行已經退出，而這是我們損失程度較高的領域，因此覆蓋程度也更高。您也會使用更多風險加權資產。因此，這些變化可能是您看到這種情況的原因——當您以五年或六年為基礎觀察時，它們的覆蓋水平有所下降。從某種程度上看，我們對今天的報道感到非常滿意。模型更新非常持續。

So there's no -- I'm not worried about that. One of the things you do find when you look at the PMAs, we've got different classifications of PMAs. One is for the kind of model overlay. And that's when you see new things or things developing coming in that we haven't managed to get into the models yet. And that's often an interesting one.

所以沒有——我並不擔心這個。當您查看 PMA 時，您會發現我們對 PMA 進行了不同的分類。一種是針對模型疊加的種類。那時你會看到新事物或正在發展中的事物出現，而我們還沒有將其納入模型。這通常是一件有趣的事。

If you're looking at multiyear basis to see how that one moves, because you'd expect numbers to come in there and then over the next year for them to go back out because they're getting built into the base underlying. But I mean, our models are very readily looked at. I don't believe that they're overly conservative or the opposite either. So comfortable -- I do think it's thinking about how the book has changed, which has been really quite significant since then. When I look at the sovereign piece, I mean, if I look at the kind of total numbers of sovereign in terms of the kind of the total loans, I'd say, actually over the last year, they've come down by about GBP1 billion, from GBP2.6 billion to GBP1.6 billion.

如果您以多年期為基礎來觀察它的變動情況，因為您會預期數字會進入其中，然後在下一年它們會回到原來的位置，因為它們會被納入基礎之中。但我的意思是，我們的模型非常容易被看到。我也不認為他們過於保守或相反。如此舒服——我確實認為它是在思考這本書是如何改變的，自那時起，這種改變確實相當重要。當我看主權部分時，我的意思是，如果我看主權貸款總額，我會說，實際上在過去一年裡，它們已經下降了約 10 億英鎊，從 26 億英鎊降至 16 億英鎊。

What's interesting is obviously we've seen a bit more of an increase in the FI sector, and that's reflecting some of the corporate lending that's been going up. But no concerns in terms of the levels that we have within the sovereign, where you can see that there is -- and you're absolutely right in that Stage 2, it's gone from the 1 last year to 133 this year. But I'm not -- we're not worried about that. That is a kind of -- one of those issues of kind of good book moving into the top end of Stage 2. But we are comfortable with our positions in there. Thanks, Alexander.

有趣的是，我們顯然看到金融機構領域的成長略有增加，這反映了部分企業貸款的增加。但就我們在主權債務水平而言，我們無需擔心，你可以看到，在第二階段，你的說法完全正確，債務水平從去年的 1 增長到了今年的 133。但我並不——我們並不擔心這件事。這是一種──一本好書進入第二階段頂端的問題之一。但我們對自己在那裡的地位感到滿意。謝謝，亞歷山大。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Paul Fenner-Leitao, Societe Generale.

法國興業銀行的保羅‧芬納-萊塔奧 (Paul Fenner-Leitao)。

Hi, team. Thanks for doing the call and taking my questions. I've got three quick ones, please. The first is I noticed -- this is one for Donal. I noticed on your supply slide that you mentioned the six-month window for one of the AT1 calls. You obviously were thinking about that when you put it on the slide. I was just wondering how much value you apportion to that window. We noticed that one of the very recent issues in the last few days removed that six-month window. So a little comment on that would be great.

大家好。感謝您撥打電話並回答我的問題。我有三個簡短的問題，請回答。首先我注意到——這是給唐納德的。我注意到您在供應投影片上提到了其中一次 AT1 呼叫的六個月窗口期。當你把它放到幻燈片上時，你顯然正在考慮這一點。我只是想知道您認為那扇窗戶有多值錢。我們注意到，最近幾天出現的最新問題之一取消了這六個月的期限。因此，對此做出一點評論就很好了。

And the second question is my standard question, but I think is as important today as it's been for the last year, in terms of forward-looking indicators for asset quality. What is it that you're seeing deteriorate, if anything? Or where should -- where are you first looking when you come into the office on a Monday morning or the first of the month? What would be the trigger for what you see as deteriorating asset quality, which evidently from the numbers, is not there at the moment? And the third question is really a strategic, I guess, partly philosophical question.

第二個問題是我的標準問題，但我認為就資產品質的前瞻指標而言，今天這個問題與去年一樣重要。如果有的話，您看到什麼情況惡化了？或者應該—當您週一早上或月初走進辦公室時，您首先會看哪裡？您認為導致資產品質惡化的因素是什麼？我想，第三個問題其實是一個戰略問題，部分是哲學問題。

When I look at your revenues, interest income versus noninterest income, I mean, you're very evidently an intermediary bank. 80% of your revenues were just shy of it, interest income. Is that the right number? I mean, it wasn't so long ago that everyone wanted to rebalance and do a lot of asset management, take on a lot more fees. How do you think about that over the strategy period? And what is it that you can sensibly do about it through organic and/or inorganic means? Thank you.

當我查看你們的收入、利息收入與非利息收入時，我的意思是，你們顯然是一家中介銀行。你的收入中 80% 都來自於利息收入。這個數字正確嗎？我的意思是，不久前每個人都想重新平衡並進行大量資產管理，承擔更多的費用。在戰略期間您如何看待這一點？那麼您可以透過有機和/或無機方法合理地採取哪些措施來解決這個問題呢？謝謝。

Sure. Thanks. So I'll take two and Steve, and I'll come back to you on the first one around the six-month call. So I'll do this to go in reverse order. So when we look at that strategy, I think we've always been very open as a bank.

當然。謝謝。因此，我將選擇兩個，史蒂夫，我將在六個月左右的電話會議中回覆您。因此我將按相反的順序進行。因此，當我們審視這項策略時，我認為作為一家銀行，我們一直都非常開放。

We are more focused on the NII as a means of our earnings. We believe that noninterest income is very important. And we also recognize there is that sort of slight -- it will balance in terms of the 80% and 20%, and it's generally about that kind of level. The reality in terms of that 20%, we've been very pleased with the growth we've seen in that on the noninterest income. We had 8% growth in that line in this last year.

我們更注重國家資訊基礎結構作為我們獲利的手段。我們認為非利息收入非常重要。我們也認識到存在這種輕微的差異——它將在 80% 和 20% 之間保持平衡，通常就是這種水平。就這 20% 的實際成長而言，我們對非利息收入的成長感到非常滿意。去年我們這條生產線的成長率為 8%。

If I look at our private bank, you can see that their assets under management have gone up 20% in the year and then that's obviously bled through into their income as well. And then within Commercial and Institutional, that's where you've seen a significant mark of the other growth as we really embedded a lot of our kind of FX and debt capital markets knowledge and moved it much further across the bank, so they've got a much wider kind of customer base.

如果我看一下我們的私人銀行，您會發現他們管理的資產今年增加了 20％，而這顯然也影響了他們的收入。然後在商業和機構領域，你會看到另一個顯著的成長標誌，因為我們真正嵌入了大量外匯和債務資本市場知識，並將其轉移到整個銀行，因此他們擁有更廣泛的客戶群。

So although you can look at the imbalance between the two, I think you also have to look to go what's happening in noninterest income. That level of growth, I think, is very respectable in any one year. And the reality is to change that level is something that becomes quite a difficult thing to do, absent some very large inorganic kind of activity. It takes quite a long time. So we're not uncomfortable with the level that we have.

因此，儘管您可以看到兩者之間的不平衡，但我認為您還必須關注非利息收入的情況。我認為，任何一年的這種成長水準都是非常可觀的。而現實情況是，如果沒有某種非常大規模的無機活動，改變這個水平是非常困難的。這需要相當長的時間。因此我們對現有的水平並不感到不滿意。

I think what we want to do is we make sure that we're growing both lines well and really continuing to develop that -- the NII and the noninterest income as well. But it is something we do pay a lot of attention to. And certainly, Commercial and Institutional and Private are the two main contributors to it. I mean, retail is less, naturally because of the this is the world of UK retail banking.

我認為我們想要做的是確保我們兩條業務線都能夠良好地發展，並且真正繼續發展——NII 和非利息收入。但我們確實非常關注這一點。當然，商業、機構和私人是兩個主要貢獻者。我的意思是，零售業務較少，自然是因為這是英國零售銀行的世界。

It's far less fee generated. And there, you can see the real volume coming through in the NII. So I do think for me, it's about the maintenance of growth across both lines rather than necessarily seeking to get them more evenly balanced.

產生的費用少很多。在那裡，你可以看到 NII 中的實際流量。因此，我確實認為，對我來說，這是為了維持兩條線路的成長，而不一定尋求使它們更加均衡。

In terms of impairments on the forward-looking indicators, the best indicator is unemployment in terms of what's happening there. We obviously understand how the book reacts to rate movements in terms of the swap yield and things like that. But the real indicator of actually problems coming on in payments, it really is around unemployment levels. And in the UK, just now, we've got unemployment at incredibly low levels. And even if I look at our economics, we range from a kind of, in 2025, from a level of 4.4% in the base case down to 5.4% in the extreme downside.

就前瞻性指標的損害而言，就目前情況而言，最好的指標是失業率。我們顯然了解這本書對掉期收益率等利率變動的反應。但實際上支付方面出現問題的真正指標是失業率。目前，英國的失業率處於極低的水平。即使我看一下我們的經濟狀況，到 2025 年，我們的成長率也將從基本狀況的 4.4% 下降到極度下降的情況的 5.4%。

One of the things you have heard Paul and I talk about over time is that when you start to see that number getting to 6% and 7%, that's where you'll get more concerned on impairments. So I would say I don't probably check unemployment every Monday morning, but I do -- obviously, it's something that I track quite closely because that is where we start to see the kind of challenges coming through if that was beginning to really so -- and that then cause deterioration.

你們經常聽到保羅和我談論的一件事是，當你開始看到這個數字達到 6% 和 7% 時，你會更加擔心傷害。因此，我想說的是，我可能不會每個星期一早上都查看失業率，但我會——顯然，這是我密切關注的事情，因為如果情況真的開始如此，我們就會開始看到出現的挑戰——然後導致情況惡化。

Donal, do you want to talk to the six-month window?

唐納德，你想談談六個月的時間嗎？

Yes. Sure. Paul, so on the six-month par call, as you say, we're seeing a few different approaches being taken by issuers, so some removing the call option. We kept it in our last AT1 issuance in Q4 last year. We still assign some value to the six-month par call.

是的。當然。保羅，正如你所說，對於六個月期平價看漲期權，我們看到發行人採取了幾種不同的方法，因此有些發行人取消了看漲期權。我們在去年第四季的最後一次 AT1 發行中保留了它。我們仍然為六個月的平價贖回權賦予一定的價值。

I think less so on a BAU environment, probably more so if it was a volatile period where maybe you're restricted from refinancing and upcoming call at some stage in a kind of a non-BAU environment. So that's really kind of high level how we would think about it.

我認為在 BAU 環境中這種情況較少，如果是動盪時期，這種情況可能更嚴重，在非 BAU 環境中，您可能在某個階段無法進行再融資和即將到來的呼叫。所以，這確實是我們思考這個問題的一種高層次的方法。

Jack Deegan, Polar Capital.

傑克·迪根（Jack Deegan），極地資本（Polar Capital）。

Hi, there. I hope you can hear me okay. You spoke about the bank's kind of strong capital base and issuance plans. But I just wanted to touch base on legacy instruments and just whether you feel any pressure to tidy up the remaining instruments that are outstanding such as preference shares and things like that.

你好呀。我希望你能聽到我的聲音。您談到了該銀行強大的資本基礎和發行計劃。但我只是想談談遺留工具，以及您是否感受到任何壓力去整理剩餘的未償還工具，例如優先股和諸如此類的東西。

Donal?

唐納爾？

Yes. Jack. So I think from our perspective, the legacy is kind of immaterial for us going forward. It's now sub GBP300 million. There's no instruments there that we haven't kind of attempted to address on numerous occasions historically.

是的。傑克。因此我認為從我們的角度來看，遺產對我們未來的發展來說並不重要。現在還不到3億英鎊。從歷史上看，我們曾多次嘗試解決這些問題。

That's not to say we wouldn't look at it again. But what we found is that the take-up and the LME exercise on those remaining legacy instruments just reduce us down every time we try. So no pressure, I think, from a Bank of England perspective, but something if we felt there was appetite, we would be happy to look at again.

這並不是說我們不會再看它。但我們發現，每次我們嘗試時，倫敦金屬交易所對這些剩餘遺留工具的採用和操作只會讓我們的速度變慢。因此，我認為，從英格蘭銀行的角度來看，沒有壓力，但如果我們覺得有興趣，我們會很樂意再次審視。

There are no more questions at this time. I would like to hand back to Katie for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將最後發言交還給凱蒂。

Lovely. Thanks very much, Oliver. And just as ever, look, thank you very much for the continued support to our issuance throughout the year. We really do appreciate, we value you highly. It's great to have this chance to catch up with any of your queries today.

迷人的。非常感謝，奧利佛。和以往一樣，非常感謝您全年對我們發行的持續支持。我們真的非常感激您，我們非常重視您。很高興今天能有機會解答您的疑問。

If you get any further questions, Paul, from our IR team, we'll be very happy to help you. And we look forward to chatting again collectively in July. That's great. Thanks very much. Have a good day, everybody.

Paul，如果您有任何其他問題，我們的 IR 團隊將非常樂意為您提供協助。我們期待著七月再次一起聊天。那太棒了。非常感謝。祝大家有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes today's presentation. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的演講到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。