NatWest Group PLC (NWG) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the NatWest Group Q3 results 2025 management presentation. Today's presentation will be hosted by CEO, Paul Thwaite; and CFO, Katie Murray. After the presentation, we will take questions.

早安，歡迎參加NatWest集團2025年第三季業績管理報告會。今天的演講將由執行長保羅·斯韋特和財務長凱蒂·莫瑞主持。演講結束後，我們將回答問題。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us today. I'll start with a short introduction before I hand over to Katie to take you through the numbers. We have delivered another strong quarter as we continue to execute on our priorities of disciplined growth, bank wide simplification, together with managing our balance sheet and risk well.

早安，感謝您今天收看我們的節目。我先做一個簡短的介紹，然後把麥克風交給凱蒂，請她為大家講解這些數字。我們又取得了強勁的季度業績，因為我們繼續執行我們的優先事項，包括穩健成長、全行簡化以及妥善管理資產負債表和風險。

Though inflation is above the Bank of England's 2% target, the economy is growing, unemployment is low, wage growth is above the rate of inflation and businesses and households have relatively high levels of savings and liquidity.

儘管通貨膨脹率高於英格蘭銀行 2% 的目標，但經濟仍在成長，失業率低，薪資成長速度高於通貨膨脹率，企業和家庭的儲蓄和流動性水平相對較高。

This is reflected in the levels of customer activity we're seeing across the bank. So let me start with the headlines for the first nine months. Lending has grown 4.4% since the year-end to GBP388 billion, in line with our annual growth rate of more than 4% over the past six years. Growth has been broad-based across our three businesses and we attracted a further 70,000 new customers in the quarter.

這一點從我們目前在全行範圍內看到的客戶活躍度水平就能看出來。那麼，就讓我先來回顧一下前九個月的新聞頭條吧。自年底以來，貸款金額成長了 4.4%，達到 3,880 億英鎊，與我們過去六年超過 4% 的年增長率相符。我們的三大業務部門均實現了全面成長，本季新增客戶達 7 萬名。

Mortgage lending was up by more than GBP5 billion for the first nine months as we broadened our customer proposition with new offers for first-time buyers and family backed mortgages, and issued mortgages to landlords in collaboration with buy-to-let specialists, Landbay.

前九個月，抵押貸款金額增加了超過 50 億英鎊，因為我們擴大了客戶範圍，為首次購房者和家庭擔保抵押貸款提供了新的優惠，並與出租房產專家 Landbay 合作向房東發放了抵押貸款。

Unsecured lending grew GBP2.9 billion or 17.3%, and we made good progress integrating our recently acquired Sainsbury's customers. They're now able to view their credit card, link their Nectar card, and view their Nectar points from credit card spending via the NatWest app.

無擔保貸款增加了 29 億英鎊，增幅達 17.3%，我們在整合近期收購的 Sainsbury's 客戶方面取得了良好進展。現在，他們可以透過 NatWest 應用程式查看自己的信用卡、關聯 Nectar 卡，以及查看信用卡消費獲得的 Nectar 積分。

In commercial and institutional, we delivered lending growth of GBP7.9 billion or 5.5% across both our large corporate and institutional and commercial mid-market businesses in areas such as infrastructure, social housing, and sustainable finance.

在商業和機構領域，我們在大型企業和機構以及商業中端市場業務中，在基礎設施、社會住宅和永續金融等領域實現了 79 億英鎊或 5.5% 的貸款成長。

As the number one lender to infrastructure, we are supporting many large-scale programs up and down the country. And we have delivered GBP7.6 billion towards our 2030 group climate and transition finance target of GBP200 billion announced in July.

作為基礎設施領域最大的貸款方，我們正在支持全國各地的許多大型專案。我們已為實現 7 月宣布的 2030 年集團氣候和轉型融資目標 2000 億英鎊，完成了 76 億英鎊。

Deposits grew 0.8% to GBP435 billion as we balance volume with value in a competitive market and as customers manage their savings across cash deposits and investments. And there's more customers across the bank chose to invest with us, assets under management and administration have grown 14.5% to GBP56 billion.

由於我們在競爭激烈的市場中平衡了數量和價值，並且客戶透過現金存款和投資來管理他們的儲蓄，存款增加了 0.8%，達到 4,350 億英鎊。而且，全行有更多客戶選擇在我們這裡投資，管理資產和行政資產成長了 14.5%，達到 560 億英鎊。

This has contributed to growth in noninterest income, along with higher fees from payments, cards, and good performance in our currencies and capital markets business. This customer activity has resulted in a strong financial performance. Income grew to GBP12.1 billion, 12.5% higher than the first nine months last year. Costs were up 2.5% at GBP5.9 billion resulting in operating profit of GBP5.8 billion and attributable profit of GBP4.1 billion.

這有助於非利息收入的成長，同時支付、信用卡手續費的增加以及我們在貨幣和資本市場業務方面的良好表現也促進了收入成長。客戶的積極參與帶來了強勁的財務表現。營收成長至 121 億英鎊，比去年同期成長 12.5%。成本上漲 2.5% 至 59 億英鎊，導致營業利潤為 58 億英鎊，歸屬於股東的利潤為 41 億英鎊。

Our return on tangible equity was 19.5%. Given the strength of our performance, we are revising our full year guidance for income to around GBP16.3 billion and for returns to greater than 18%. We continue to make good progress on both simplification and capital management. We have reduced the cost-income ratio by 5 percentage points to 47.8%. And we generated 202 basis points of capital for the nine months and ended the third quarter with a CET1 ratio of 14.2%.

我們的有形權益報酬率為 19.5%。鑑於我們強勁的業績表現，我們將全年營收預期上調至約 163 億英鎊，回報率預期上調至 18% 以上。我們在簡化流程和資本管理方面持續取得良好進展。我們將成本收入比降低了 5 個百分點，至 47.8%。我們在前九個月產生了 202 個基點的資本，第三季末的 CET1 比率為 14.2%。

This strong capital generation allows us not just to support customers, but to invest in the business and deliver attractive returns to shareholders.

強大的資本累積能力不僅使我們能夠為客戶提供支持，還能投資於業務並為股東帶來可觀的回報。

As you know, we announced a new share buyback of GBP750 million at the half year, of which 50% has now been carried out. and we expect to complete the buyback by our full year results. Earnings per share have grown 32.4% year on year and TNAV per share is at 14.6% at 362p. So a strong performance for the first nine months.

如您所知，我們在年中宣布了一項7.5億英鎊的新股票回購計劃，目前已完成50%。我們預計將在公佈全年業績前完成剩餘的回購。每股盈餘較去年同期成長 32.4%，每股總資產價值為 362 便士，較去年同期成長 14.6%。所以前九個月表現強。

I'll hand over to Katie to take you through the numbers for the third quarter.

接下來由凱蒂為大家介紹第三季的數據。

Thank you, Paul. I'll talk about the third quarter using the second quarter as a comparator. Income, excluding all notable items, was up 3.9% at GBP4.2 billion. Total income was up 8.2%, including GBP166 million of notable income items. Operating expenses were 2.1% lower at 2 billion due to lower litigation and conduct charges.

謝謝你，保羅。我將以第二季為參照，來談談第三季的情況。剔除所有重大項目後，營收成長 3.9%，達到 42 億英鎊。總收入成長 8.2%，其中包括 1.66 億英鎊的重大收入項目。由於訴訟和行為費用減少，營運支出下降了 2.1%，為 20 億美元。

And the impairment charge was GBP153 million or 15 basis points of loans. Taken together, this delivered operating profit before tax of GBP2.2 billion for the quarter and profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of GBP1.6 billion. Our return on tangible equity was 22.3%.

減損損失為 1.53 億英鎊，相當於貸款額的 15 個基點。綜合來看，本季稅前營業利潤為 22 億英鎊，歸屬於普通股股東的利潤為 16 億英鎊。我們的有形權益報酬率為 22.3%。

Turning now to income. Overall income, excluding notable items, grew 3.9% to GBP4.2 billion. Across our three businesses, income increased by 2.5% or GBP101 million. Net interest income grew 3% or GBP94 million to GBP3.3 billion.

接下來談談收入。不計特殊項目，總營收成長 3.9%，達到 42 億英鎊。我們三項業務的總收入成長了 2.5%，即 1.01 億英鎊。淨利息收入成長3%，即9,400萬英鎊，達33億英鎊。

This was driven by further lending growth and margin expansion as tailwinds from the structural hedge and the benefit from the Sainsbury's portfolios for a full quarter more than offset the impact of the base rate cut in August.

這主要得益於貸款的進一步增長和利潤率的擴張，結構性對沖帶來的利好以及 Sainsbury's 投資組合在整個季度的收益，足以抵消 8 月份基準利率下調的影響。

Net interest margin was up 9 basis points to 237, mainly due to deposit margin expansion and funding and other treasury activity. Non-interest income across the three businesses was up 0.8% compared with a strong second quarter.

淨利差上升 9 個基點至 237，主要原因是存款利差擴大以及融資和其他國庫活動。與強勁的第二季相比，這三項業務的非利息收入成長了0.8%。

This was due to increased card fees in retail banking, higher investment management fees in private banking and wealth management. and a good performance in currencies and capital markets with heightened volatility.

這主要是由於零售銀行信用卡手續費上漲、私人銀行和財富管理投資管理費增加，以及波動性加劇的外匯和資本市場表現良好。

Given continued positive momentum and a clearer line of sight to the year-end, we have refined our income guidance and now expect full year total income, excluding notable items, to be around GBP16.3 billion. We continue to assume one further base rate cut this year with rates reaching 3.75% by the year-end. This improved guidance alongside strong Q3 returns means we now expect return on tangible equity for the full year to be greater than 18%.

鑑於持續的積極勢頭和更清晰的年底前景，我們已調整了收入預期，現在預計全年總收入（不包括重大項目）約為 163 億英鎊。我們繼續假設今年將再下調一次基準利率，到年底利率將達到 3.75%。鑑於業績指引的改善以及第三季強勁的回報，我們現在預計全年有形權益回報率將超過 18%。

Moving now to lending, where we have delivered another strong quarter of growth. Gross loans to customers across our three businesses increased by GBP4.4 billion to GBP388.1 billion, with growth well balanced between personal and corporate customers across retail banking and private banking and wealth management, mortgage balance grew by GBP1.7 billion, and our stock share remained stable at 12.6%. Unsecured balances increased by a further GBP100 million, mainly in credit cards.

接下來談談貸款業務，我們又實現了強勁的季度成長。我們三大業務部門向客戶發放的總貸款增加了 44 億英鎊，達到 3881 億英鎊，零售銀行、私人銀行和財富管理部門的個人客戶和企業客戶之間的增長保持平衡，抵押貸款餘額增加了 17 億英鎊，我們的股票份額保持穩定在 12.6%。無擔保債務餘額又增加了1億英鎊，主要集中在信用卡方面。

In commercial and institutional, gross customer loans, excluding government schemes were up by GBP3 billion. This includes GBP1.6 billion across our commercial mid-market customers, in particular, in project finance, social housing and residential, commercial real estate as well as GBP1.5 billion in corporate and institutions, mainly driven by infrastructure and funds lending.

在商業和機構貸款方面，不包括政府計劃在內，客戶貸款總額增加了 30 億英鎊。這其中包括面向中端市場商業客戶的 16 億英鎊，尤其是在專案融資、社會住宅和住宅、商業房地產方面；以及面向企業和機構的 15 億英鎊，主要由基礎設施和資金貸款驅動。

I'll now turn to deposits. These were broadly stable across our three businesses at GBP435 billion. Retail banking deposit balances were down GBP0.8 billion, with growth of GBP0.6 billion in current accounts, more than offset by lower fixed-term saving balances following large maturities.

接下來我將談談存款問題。我們三大業務的總和基本上保持穩定，為 4350 億英鎊。零售銀行存款餘額減少了 8 億英鎊，活期帳戶增加了 6 億英鎊，但大額定期存款到期後，定期儲蓄餘額下降，抵消了活期存款餘額的增長。

Private banking balances reduced by GBP0.7 billion with flows into investments as customers diversify and manage their savings as well as tax payments made in July. We saw a small increase in commercial and institutional of GBP0.4 billion, with higher balances in both commercial, mid-market and business banking. Deposit mix across the three businesses were broadly stable.

由於客戶分散投資和管理儲蓄，以及7月繳納的稅款，私人銀行帳戶餘額減少了7億英鎊，資金流入了投資領域。我們看到商業和機構存款小幅增加了 4 億英鎊，商業銀行、中端市場銀行和企業銀行的存款餘額均增加。這三項業務的存款結構大致保持穩定。

Turning now to costs. We are pleased with our delivery of savings this year, which allows us to invest and accelerate our program of bank-wide simplification. Costs grew 1% to GBP2 billion, including GBP34 million of our guided one-time integration costs. This brings integration costs for the first nine months to GBP68 million.

現在來談談成本。我們對今年實現的節約目標感到滿意，這使我們能夠投資並加快全行簡化計劃的實施。成本成長 1% 至 20 億英鎊，其中包括我們預計的 3,400 萬英鎊一次性整合成本。這使得前九個月的整合成本達到 6,800 萬英鎊。

We remain on track for other operating expenses to be around GBP8 billion for the full year, plus around GBP100 million of one-time integration costs. This means you should expect expenses to be higher in the fourth quarter, driven by the annual bank levy and the timing of investment spend.

我們預計全年其他營運支出約為 80 億英鎊，外加約 1 億英鎊的一次性整合成本。這意味著，由於年度銀行稅和投資支出時間的影響，預計第四季的支出將會更高。

I'd like to turn now to impairments. Our prime loan book is well diversified and continues to perform well. We are reporting a net impairment charge of GBP153 million for the third quarter. equivalent to 15 basis points of loans on an annualized basis. Our post model adjustments for economic uncertainty of GBP233 million are broadly unchanged.

現在我想談談殘障問題。我們的優質貸款組合多元化程度高，且持續表現良好。我們報告第三季淨減損支出為1.53億英鎊，相當於年化貸款額的15個基點。我們對經濟不確定性做出的2.33億英鎊的模型調整基本上保持不變。

And following our usual review, our economic assumptions also remain unchanged. Overall, we are comfortable with our provisions and coverage, and we have no significant concerns about the credit portfolio at this time.

按照慣例，我們的經濟假設也保持不變。總體而言，我們對撥備和覆蓋範圍感到滿意，目前對信貸組合沒有重大擔憂。

Given the current performance of the book and the 17 basis points of impairments year to date, we continue to expect a lower impairment rate below 20 basis points for the full year.

鑑於該帳簿目前的業績以及年初至今的 17 個基點減損損失，我們繼續預期全年減損率將低於 20 個基點。

Turning now to capital. We ended the third quarter with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 14.2%, up 60 basis points on the second. We generated 101 basis points of capital before distributions, taking the nine-month total to 202 basis points. Strong third quarter earnings added 84 basis points and the reduction in risk-weighted assets contributed another 8 basis points.

現在來談談資本。第三季末，我們的一級普通股資本適足率為 14.2%，比第二季上升了 60 個基點。在分配之前，我們產生了 101 個基點的資本，使九個月的總資本達到 202 個基點。強勁的第三季獲利貢獻了 84 個基點，風險加權資產的減少又貢獻了 8 個基點。

Risk-weighted assets decreased by GBP1 billion to GBP189.1 billion. GBP0.9 billion of business movements which broadly reflects our lending growth and GBP0.3 billion from CRD IV model inflation were more than offset by a GBP2.2 billion reduction as a result of RWA management. This brings our CET1 ratio before distributions to 14.6%. We accrued 50% of attributable profits for the ordinary dividend as usual, equivalent to 42 basis points of capital.

風險加權資產減少10億英鎊，至1,891億英鎊。9億英鎊的業務變動（大致反映了我們的貸款成長）和3億英鎊的CRD IV模型通膨，被RWA管理帶來的22億英鎊減少所抵銷。這使得我們在分配前的 CET1 比率達到 14.6%。我們照例將應歸屬利潤的 50% 用於派發普通股股息，相當於 42 個基點的資本。

We continue to expect RWAs of GBP190 billion to GBP195 billion at the year-end, with a greater impact from CRD IV expected in the fourth quarter.

我們繼續預期年底風險加權資產 (RWA) 為 1,900 億至 1,950 億英鎊，預計第四季 CRD IV 將產生更大的影響。

Turning now to guidance for 2025. We now expect income excluding notable items, to be around GBP16.3 billion and return on tangible equity to be greater than 18%. Our cost impairment and RWA guidance remains unchanged.

接下來展望2025年。我們現在預計，不計重大項目，收入約為 163 億英鎊，有形權益回報率將超過 18%。我們的成本減損和風險加權資產指引維持不變。

And with that, I'll hand back to Paul. Thank you.

那麼，接下來我就把麥克風交還給保羅。謝謝。

Thank you, Katie. So to conclude, we're pleased to report another very strong quarter of income growth, profits, returns and capital generation. This has been driven by customer activity across all three of our businesses, leading to strong broad-based lending growth and robust fee income.

謝謝你，凱蒂。綜上所述，我們很高興地報告，本季營收成長、利潤、回報和資本創造均表現強勁。這主要得益於我們三大業務領域的客戶活躍度，從而實現了強勁的廣泛貸款成長和穩健的手續費收入。

Our continued focus on cost discipline has delivered meaningful operating leverage. And as we actively manage both our balance sheet and risk, the business remains well positioned to deliver strong shareholder returns.

我們持續關注成本控制，從而帶來了顯著的營運效益。透過積極管理資產負債表和風險，公司仍處於有利地位，能為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

As you've heard, we have upgraded our full year income and returns guidance today. And we'll update you on our guidance for 2026 and share our new targets for 2028 at the full year in February. Many thanks.

正如你們所聽到的，我們今天上調了全年收入和回報預期。我們將於2月份發布2026年全年業績報告，並向您報告2028年的新目標。非常感謝。

We'll now open it up for questions.

現在開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Benjamin Caven-Roberts, Goldman Sachs.

班傑明·卡文-羅伯茨，高盛。

So two for me, please. First on deposits and second, on non-interest income. So on deposits, could you talk a bit about deposit momentum in the business? And in particular, you mentioned the retail fixed term outflows over the quarter. Could you talk a bit more about how much of that is reflecting conscious pricing decisions? And then looking ahead, the sort of trajectory for deposits going forward?

請給我兩份。首先是存款，其次是非利息收入。那麼關於存款，您能否談談目前業務的存款成長動能？尤其值得一提的是，您提到了本季零售定期資金的流出。您能否再詳細談談其中有多少反映了企業有意識的定價決策？那麼展望未來，礦藏未來的發展軌跡會是怎麼樣的呢？

And then on non-interest income, very strong even when adjusting out the notable items related to derivatives. Could you talk about momentum in that franchise and what business drivers you're particularly focused on looking ahead?

即使剔除與衍生性商品相關的重大項目，非利息收入也表現非常強勁。能否談談該品牌的發展勢頭，以及展望未來，您特別關注哪些業務驅動因素？

Thanks, Ben. Good to hear from you. So let's take them one by one. So on deposits, so big picture is up around GBP3.5 billion, around 1% year to date. Different stories within the different businesses.

謝謝你，本。很高興收到你的來信。那麼，讓我們逐一來看。因此，就存款而言，總體而言，今年迄今增加了約 35 億英鎊，增幅約為 1%。不同企業有不同的故事。

I guess, we talked at the half year around the kind of ISA season and some of the -- get the confluence of debate around the future of ISAs and how that led and some of the movements in the swap curves on the back of tariffs and how that led to different pricing. That period is behind us. There's been more normalized pricing since the kind of April, May. If you look at our three businesses, I'd say slightly different trends. I'll finish with retail because there's more to unpack there.

我想，我們在年中會議期間討論了 ISA 季的相關問題，以及圍繞 ISA 未來發展的一些爭論，以及關稅對互換曲線的影響，以及由此導致的不同定價。那段時期已經過去了。自四、五月以來，價格已趨於正常化。如果觀察我們三家企業，我認為它們的發展趨勢略有不同。零售業部分我最後再講，因為這方面還有很多東西要闡述。

On the commercial side, deposits are up, encouragingly, that's in kind of the business bank and commercial mid-market. That's good. Private bank cash deposits are down. A combination of things, July, we saw some tax payments -- but also we see more funds shift from cash deposits into securities and investments, which is a net positive trend. In retail if you look at current account balances, they are up. So kind of operational balances, salary accounts, you can see that the numbers are up there. I think the details are in the disclosures.

商業方面，存款增加，令人鼓舞，尤其是在商業銀行和中型商業市場。那挺好的。私人銀行現金存款下降。7 月份，各種因素交織在一起，我們看到一些稅款繳納——但我們也看到更多資金從現金存款轉向證券和投資，這是一個淨積極的趨勢。在零售業，如果你查看活期帳戶餘額，會發現餘額增加。所以，從營運餘額、薪資帳戶來看，這些數字都很高。我認為細節都在披露文件中。

Instant Access is flat, where we've seen some reductions is in fixed term accounts. And that reflects a number of mature -- large maturities that we had during the quarter. We're pleased with our retention rates. They're running about 80%, 85%.

即時提款業務基本持平，而定期存款業務則有所下降。這反映了我們本季有很多成熟的、規模較大的交易到期。我們對客戶留存率感到滿意。它們的運行率大約在 80% 到 85% 之間。

But as you alluded to, given our LDR at 88%, LCR at 148% we're finding a right balance between value and volume. So we've been pretty dynamic, and we're focusing on where we see funding and customer value. So that's unpacking the deposit story for you. So different stories in different businesses, relatively stable given our overall funding profile, very focused on managing appropriately for value.

但正如您所暗示的，鑑於我們的 LDR 為 88%，LCR 為 148%，我們找到了價值和數量之間的正確平衡。所以我們一直保持著相當靈活的策略，專注於那些我們認為能夠帶來資金和客戶價值的領域。以上就是存款故事的詳細解讀。因此，不同業務的情況各不相同，但鑑於我們整體的資金狀況，情況相對穩定，我們非常注重合理管理以實現價值。

On the second question, which is non-NII, yeah, as you alluded to, we're pleased with the quarter, and we're pleased with the year-to-date. Good momentum in the areas that we've been focusing on. I mean it's quite broad-based actually, when you unpack it, cards, payments, but obviously good contribution within C&I from our markets business driven by the strong FX franchise and by the capital markets business.

關於第二個問題（非NII問題），是的，正如您所提到的，我們對本季業績感到滿意，對年初至今的業績也感到滿意。在我們一直關注的領域，進展良好。我的意思是，實際上它的基礎相當廣泛，當你深入分析時，會發現它包括銀行卡、支付等業務，但顯然，在強大的外匯業務和資本市場業務的推動下，我們的市場業務對工商企業業務做出了很好的貢獻。

So we've had a strong quarter three there, probably slightly stronger than we expected when we spoke to you at the half year. We feel as if our focus on those areas, whether it's the market part of commercial institutional, whether it's our payments business. But also, as you can see in our wealth business, the fees from assets under management are increasing as well.

所以，我們第三季的業績非常強勁，可能比我們在年中與您交談時預期的還要好。我們感覺我們對這些領域的關注，無論是商業機構的市場部分，還是我們的支付業務。但正如您在我們財富管理業務中看到的那樣，資產管理費也在不斷上漲。

So it feels like we've got good progress and good momentum on fees and it remains a strategic area of focus for us. Thanks, Ben.

因此，我們感覺在收費方面取得了良好的進展和勢頭，收費仍然是我們的策略重點領域。謝謝你，本。

Sheel Shah, JPMorgan.

Sheel Shah，摩根大通。

Great. Firstly, on the costs. You've reiterated your cost guidance for the year despite the strong third quarter performance. How should we think about cost growth going forward, given we have CPI going back towards 4%. You're clearly simplifying the bank internally.

偉大的。首先，關於成本。儘管第三季業績強勁，但您仍重申了全年的成本預期。鑑於消費者物價指數(CPI)正回升至4%左右，我們該如何看待未來的成本成長？你們顯然是在簡化銀行內部流程。

Do you think a 3% cost growth number is the right level for the bank? Or do you think that maybe understates your ability to manage the cost base? And then secondly, on capital, could you give us a steer on the CRD impact that we expect for the fourth quarter? And maybe thinking about the fourth quarter capital level, how are you thinking about operating in that 13% to 14% range? Is there anything preventing you from moving down towards the 13%?

你認為3%的成本成長率對銀行來說合適嗎？或者您認為這可能低估了您控製成本的能力？其次，關於資本方面，您能否給我們一些關於CRD對第四季預期影響的指導意見？考慮到第四季度的資本水平，您如何看待在 13% 到 14% 的範圍內運作？有什麼因素阻止你把收益率降到 13% 嗎？

Or are you managing maybe for M&A or anything else maybe in the horizon that you're thinking about? Because this is clearly the strongest capital print we've had for the last maybe three, four years or maybe two to three years for the bank overall.

或者，您是否正在為併購或其他您正在考慮的未來計劃做準備？因為很明顯，這是我們銀行近三、四年，甚至近兩、三年來最強勁的資本狀況。

Thanks, Sheel. Katie, I'll take the cost and then turn it over to you on the capital piece if that's okay.

謝謝你，希爾。凱蒂，如果可以的話，我會先收取費用，然後再把這筆錢轉給你作為啟動資金。

Yeah.

是的。

On cost, Sheel, so as you say, it's a strong year-to-date picture if you look at year-on-year comparisons. And obviously, we have the one-off in terms of the integration costs as well of Sainsbury's. I am pleased with the momentum we're getting on the simplification agenda. I think that's -- you can see that starting to bear fruit. It's also I think most pleasingly, it's a bit of a flywheel because it creates investment capacity to drive further transformation in the business.

希爾，就成本而言，正如你所說，如果從同比來看，今年迄今為止的情況非常強勁。當然，我們也有一次性的整合費用，就是收購 Sainsbury's 的費用。我對我們在簡化議程方面取得的進展感到滿意。我認為——你可以看到它開始結出碩果了。我覺得最令人欣慰的是，它有點像飛輪效應，因為它創造了投資能力，從而推動業務的進一步轉型。

And it's not only cost out it's also improving customer experience and colleague experience as well. So as you alluded to, we're holding with the current year guidance, GBP8 billion-plus the GBP100 million of integration costs, but we are pleased with the momentum on the agenda -- on the simplification agenda.

這不僅可以降低成本，還能改善客戶體驗和同事體驗。正如您所提到的，我們維持今年的業績預期，即 80 億英鎊加上 1 億英鎊的整合成本，但我們對簡化議程的進展感到滿意。

I'm not going to be drawn on kind of '26 costs or future costs. We'll talk to you in February around '26 guidance and new '28 targets. But what I would say thematically is we still have a very significant focus on cost management, and we're a very high conviction on the simplification agenda.

我不會對 2026 年的成本或未來的成本發表評論。我們將在二月與您討論 2026 年的業績指引和 2028 年的新目標。但我想說的是，從主題上講，我們仍然非常重視成本管理，我們非常堅定地致力於簡化流程。

And to help put that in context a little bit for you to deliver the cost print that we are doing this year requires us to take more than 4% out of the kind of the underlying business. so that we can support the investment, the inflation-related changes, be they wages or tech contracts.

為了幫助您更好地理解，我們今年的成本核算需要從基礎業務中削減超過 4% 的支出，以便支持投資、應對與通膨相關的變化，無論是工資還是技術合約。

So we've got good momentum in kind of taking that, driving that efficiency out. been able to invest, but also delivering good cost control. So that's the ethos going forward. And the levers that we're pulling those levers can still be pulled moving forward, whether that's continued acceleration of our digitization, streamlining and modernizing the tech estate. Just by way of example, we decommissioned 24 platforms in retail so far this year, which is great.

因此，我們在提高效率方面取得了良好的勢頭，既能夠進行投資，又能有效控製成本。這就是我們今後要秉持的理念。而我們正在採取的這些措施，在未來仍可繼續實施，無論是繼續加速數位化進程，或是精簡和現代化技術體系。舉一例，今年到目前為止，我們已經停用了零售業的 24 個平台，這很棒。

You've seen we've done a lot of work simplifying our operating model, whether it's in our wealth business, moving some of the support areas in Switzerland to the UK and India rationalizing our European footprint, legal entity footprint. and just some of the good organizational health measures.

您已經看到，我們做了很多工作來簡化我們的營運模式，無論是在財富管理業務方面，還是將瑞士的一些支援部門轉移到英國和印度，亦或是精簡我們在歐洲的業務佈局和法律實體佈局，以及其他一些良好的組織健康措施。

So it feels as though those levers that we've been pulling can continue to be pulled -- and then obviously, you lay over that some of the productivity benefits we're seeing from AI and those activities around customer contact, software engineering.

所以感覺我們一直在使用的那些手段可以繼續使用——然後很明顯，再加上我們從人工智慧以及圍繞客戶聯繫、軟體工程的活動中獲得的一些生產力優勢。

So net-net, I'm not giving you a number for '26, but hopefully giving you a sense of how we're thinking about it and where the momentum is coming from, and therefore, our confidence in maintaining a good healthy cost profile going forward. Katie?

所以總而言之，我不會給出 2026 年的具體數字，但希望能夠讓您了解我們是如何考慮這個問題的，以及目前的勢頭來自哪裡，因此，我們有信心在未來保持良好的成本結構。凱蒂？

Perfect. Sure. So Sheel, I'll just start off talking a little bit with CRD for the interest on capital as well. So look, as you look at it, you're absolutely right. In the quarter, limited CRD IV impact.

完美的。當然。所以希爾，我先和CRD談談資本利息的問題。所以你看，你這麼一看，完全正確。本季度，CRD IV 的影響有限。

We are expecting the majority of that in Q4 and a little bit of that may even bleed into 2026. So when you think of our kind of RWAs from here, it's very much about the loan growth, the management actions as well as that more material impact of CRD4 coming in, in the fourth quarter.

我們預計大部分成長將在第四季度實現，甚至可能有一小部分會延續到 2026 年。所以，從現在來看，我們這類風險加權資產 (RWA) 很大程度上取決於貸款成長、管理措施以及第四季度 CRD4 帶來的更實質影響。

And then going forward, you're familiar with Basel 3.1 coming in in 2026. That is always important to remember that comes with a bit of a Pillar 2 reduction when it comes through in terms of capital. But when I think of kind of the RWAs is to kind of think of the absolute growth that we're talking about in the book, importantly, the mix of that growth, but also the kind of risk density that you see once we pass the CRD for and the Basel 3.1. And of course, obviously, the continuing strength of our management action program that we have.

展望未來，您應該熟悉將於 2026 年實施的巴塞爾協議 3.1。始終要記住，當第二支柱資金到位時，必然會有一些削減。但當我想到風險加權資產（RWA）時，我想到的是我們在書中討論的絕對增長，更重要的是，這種增長的組合，以及一旦我們通過資本要求指令（CRD）和巴塞爾協議3.1，就會出現的風險密度。當然，還有我們管理行動計畫的持續有效性。

And then if you turn to kind of capital, clearly, a really strong print today, very pleased with the 101 basis points we did in the third quarter, 202 bps for the first nine months. I mean a great result by any measure. We've always said that we're happy to operate down to that 13%.

然後，如果你看看資本狀況，很明顯，今天的業績非常強勁，我們對第三季實現的 101 個基點非常滿意，前九個月實現了 202 個基點。我的意思是，無論從哪個角度來看，這都是一個非常好的結果。我們一直都說，我們很樂意將營運成本降至 13%。

We do think about capital generation and when we think of it in terms of dividends and where we're going to land and things like's that, we do debate the sort of next sort of 6, 12 months as well because you've got to think about we really try to manage a consistent program of capital return back to the market, but also it mindful of that RWA generation that's coming, whether it be from regulatory change or the growth the growth within the book.

我們確實會考慮資本積累，當我們從股息、未來的發展方向等角度考慮這個問題時，我們也會討論未來 6 個月、12 個月的情況，因為我們必須考慮如何努力管理一個持續的資本回報計劃，將收益回饋給市場，同時也要關注即將到來的風險加權資產 (RWA) 的產生，無論是監管變化帶來的收益，還是賬簿內帶來的收益。

And so as you -- I would kind of as you consider where we might land and what we might think about is think on those various points. Thanks very much, Sheel.

所以，當你——我會想，當你考慮我們可能會在哪裡落腳，以及我們可能會思考哪些方面時，就思考這些不同的要點。非常感謝，希爾。

Thanks Sheel.

謝謝希爾。

Aman Rakkar, Barclays.

阿曼·拉卡爾，巴克萊銀行。

I had two questions, please. I guess we're all probably singularly focused on 2026 at this stage. So particularly on income, love to kind of get your take on how we should think about the various drivers from here across I guess margin developments, clearly, loan growth continues to surprise positively, but any color you can provide on kind of the drivers of fee income from here would be really helpful.

請問我有兩個問題。我想我們目前可能都只關注2026年。所以，尤其是在收入方面，我很想聽聽您對我們應該如何看待各種驅動因素​​的看法，例如利潤率的發展，顯然，貸款成長繼續帶來驚喜，但如果您能就手續費收入的驅動因素提供一些見解，那就太好了。

And I guess the second question was around your longer-term targets that hopefully you're going to present to the market in the new year. And to me, it looks like there is the underpinning of pretty decent operating leverage for a number of years here, not least because of the structural tailwind to '28 that you guys flagged.

我想第二個問題是關於您的長期目標，希望您能在新的一年向市場公佈這些目標。在我看來，未來幾年這裡似乎有相當不錯的經營槓桿支撐，這在很大程度上要歸功於你們指出的到 2028 年的結構性利好因素。

So I guess one for Paul really in terms of your view on structural operating leverage in your business on a multiyear view from here, how confident you are in that in terms of some of the levers you might want to pull. And I guess, I'm ultimately interested in the RoTE output.

所以我想問保羅一個問題，關於你對公司未來多年結構性經營槓桿的看法，你對此有多大信心，以及你可能會採取哪些措施。我想，我最終感興趣的還是 RoTE 的輸出結果。

For me, you're doing 18% this year, and there's no reason to think in my mind why you don't accrete quite nicely over and above that level as you realize that operating leverage. So any kind of color you can give on that basis would be really helpful.

在我看來，你今年的收益率是 18%，而且我認為，隨著你實現營運槓桿，你的收益率完全有可能在這個水平之上繼續穩定成長。所以，您能根據這一點給出的任何顏色建議都將非常有幫助。

Katie, do you want to take '26 and I'll talk about --

凱蒂，你想選26號嗎？我來跟你聊聊。--

Perfect. That's great. Thanks, Aman, good to hear your voice. Look, we do continue to expect the income growth that we've seen throughout our guidance period, and we do remain confident in that growth trajectory beyond 2025. So as I look at 2026, there's probably a few things I would kind of guide you to. One, growth. I mean, we've talked about this a lot, but we've got a strong multiyear track record of growth across all three of our businesses.

完美的。那太棒了。謝謝你，阿曼，很高興聽到你的聲音。你看，我們仍然預期收入會像我們在整個指導期內看到的那樣成長，我們對 2025 年以後的成長軌跡仍然充滿信心。展望 2026 年，我可能有一些建議想和大家分享。第一，增長。我的意思是，我們已經討論過很多次了，但我們的三大業務板塊都擁有多年強勁的成長記錄。

We outpaced the wider sector on that. if we look at the breadth of our business, we know that we're well placed to capture demand as it comes through, and we'll continue to deploy capital throughout 2026, and we do expect that growth to continue.

在這方面，我們超越了整個產業。如果我們審視我們業務的廣度，我們知道我們有能力抓住即將到來的需求，我們將繼續在2026年全年投入資金，並且我們預計這種成長勢頭將持續下去。

Obviously, there's a mix of growth across both sides of the balance sheet, and that's very much a function of customer and competitor behavior. The hedge, I think you're all very familiar with the hedge these days. We've talked about it such a lot over this last year, but certainly, strong growth into 2026, over GBP1 billion higher in absolute terms in 2025. I think that's well-understood by all of you.

顯然，資產負債表兩端都出現了成長，這很大程度上取決於客戶和競爭對手的行為。我想你們現在對樹籬都很熟悉了。過去一年我們已經多次討論過這個問題，但可以肯定的是，到 2026 年將實現強勁增長，2025 年的絕對值將增長超過 10 億英鎊。我想你們都很清楚這一點。

Rate cuts, we do expect one further rate cut in Q1 after our plans still have a rate cut in November. So we get to a kind of terminal rate of 3.5%. And then you'll see the kind of averaging impact of the rates we've had this year coming through into 2026.

我們預計在第一季度還會再降息一次，此前我們的計劃中仍然包括在 11 月降息。因此，我們得出的最終利率約為 3.5%。然後你會看到今年這些利率的平均影響會持續到 2026 年。

Paul has already spoken on non-interest income and our confidence in that business, very much the strength of the kind of customer franchise, always dependent on customer volatility and -- sorry, customer activity and volatility, but it served us very well this year.

保羅已經談到了非利息收入以及我們對這項業務的信心，這很大程度上取決於客戶特許經營權的實力，而這種實力總是取決於客戶的波動性——抱歉，是客戶的活躍度和波動性，但這在今年對我們非常有利。

But if I think of all of those trends together, Aman, they will continue beyond next year as well, obviously, with the exception of rate cuts as we believe we'll get to that terminal rate in 2026. But I'd agree with you, we feel quite well-placed at the moment. Paul?

但如果我把所有這些趨勢放在一起考慮，阿曼，它們顯然也會延續到明年以後，除了降息之外，因為我們相信我們會在 2026 年達到最終利率水準。但我同意你的看法，我們目前感覺處境相當不錯。保羅？

Thanks, Katie, and thanks, Aman. And yeah, we've announced today that we'll share targets for '28 in February. So we've been very explicit on that. So we look forward to that session. But as you say, it's obvious we've got good momentum in the business, and that's predicated on strong operating leverage.

謝謝凱蒂，也謝謝阿曼。是的，我們今天宣布，我們將在2月公佈2028年的目標。所以我們在這一點上已經非常明確地表達了出來。我們很期待那次會議。但正如你所說，很明顯，我們的業務發展勢頭良好，而這得益於強大的經營槓桿。

If you look at today's numbers, we've got a 5% cost/income ratio improvement, and we've guided to over 9% jaws for the year. So a very strong proof point of the operating leverage that we've got in the current business model and business mix, which we have talked about previously. But as I said, I'm just very pleased that it's bearing fruit as the -- both the income growth and the simplification agenda comes through.

如果看看今天的數據，我們的成本/收入比率提高了 5%，我們預計今年將提高 9% 以上。所以，這有力地證明了我們目前的商業模式和業務組合所具有的經營槓桿效應，我們之前也討論過這一點。但正如我所說，我很高興看到它正在取得成果——收入成長和簡化議程都取得了進展。

as I said to Sheel's question, we are high conviction on the simplification agenda. The levers we are pulling are working, and we can see a path to continue to pull those levers, which should further support the operating leverage to link it to Katie's answer as we see the top line growth through the different aspects.

正如我回答希爾的問題時所說，我們對簡化議程充滿信心。我們正在採取的措施正在奏效，我們可以看到繼續採取這些措施的途徑，這將進一步支持營運槓桿，從而與凱蒂的回答聯繫起來，因為我們透過各個方面看到了營收成長。

It's our seventh year of growth above 4% on the lending side. So that gives us confidence there that we've got customer businesses that will capture demand and have grown above market growth levels over a multiyear track record. So that's what's going to inform our thinking as we go through.

這是我們在貸款業務方面連續第七年實現4%以上的成長。因此，這讓我們有信心，我們擁有能夠滿足市場需求並在過去多年中實現高於市場成長水平的客戶企業。所以，這就是我們接下來要思考的依據。

But the underlying thesis here is very tight management of costs that creates capacity to invest, growing the customer franchises, strong jaws, generates a lot of capital, over 100 basis points in the quarter, over 200 for the year, and that gives us confidence about the outlook. So hopefully, that gives you a sense how we're thinking about it. And obviously, we'll talk specific numbers in February. Thanks, Aman.

但其根本論點是嚴格的成本管理，從而創造了投資能力，擴大了客戶群，增強了競爭力，產生了大量資本，本季度超過 100 個基點，全年超過 200 個基點，這讓我們對前景充滿信心。希望這能讓您了解我們的想法。當然，我們會在二月討論具體數字。謝謝你，阿曼。

Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾，摩根士丹利。

Hopefully, you can hear me okay. I guess the two bit follow-ups, but I'm interested. NatWest Markets continues to do very well and hold up very well.

希望你能聽清楚我說話。我猜是那兩個無關緊要的後續問題，但我很感興趣。NatWest Markets 的表現依然非常出色，並且保持著非常好的水平。

And I know there's a history there, and I suspect part of the cautious guidance has been on the limited visibility of the nature -- because of the nature of the business. But given it continues to perform pretty steadily, consensus has it down the contribution in 2026, and there's not a lot of growth medium term in non-interest income.

我知道這其中有一段歷史，而且我懷疑謹慎的指導意見部分原因是由於業務性質的限制，導致其性質的可見性有限。但鑑於其表現持續相當穩定，普遍認為其在 2026 年的貢獻將會下降，而且中期內非利息收入的成長空間不大。

Given the performance the last few years, can you sort of share your reflections on that business? How much is being cyclical versus what you changed in the business? And is that right to assume a normalization down medium term and next year in particular?

鑑於過去幾年的業績表現，您能否分享一下您對該業務的看法？週期性因素和企業自身變革的影響分別有多大？那麼，假設中期（特別是明年）價格將恢復正常水準是否正確？

And second, around loan growth, it continues to do very well in corporate. I'm thinking now it was lumpy to start with in corporate and institutional, but it does look like it's much more spread out in mid-market now. Again, as we think about the next few quarters, how do you see that momentum? Should we think that this level of growth is sustainable?

其次，在貸款成長方面，該公司在企業貸款領域持續表現良好。我現在覺得，一開始企業和機構市場的分佈可能比較分散，但現在看來，中端市場的分佈已經分散得多。再說，展望未來幾個季度，您如何看待這種發展勢頭？我們應該認為這種成長水準是可持續的嗎？

Thanks, Alvaro. Katie, do you want to take the C&I kind of markets products question, and I'll take the wider lending.

謝謝你，阿爾瓦羅。凱蒂，你想回答有關工商市場產品的問題嗎？我來回答更廣泛的貸款問題。

Yeah. No, absolutely. So I mean, Alvaro, it's interesting. Obviously, you've been with us for some time, and you've been on that journey in terms of NatWest Markets. And I think the real strategic important thing that kind of has happened really from the beginning of last year is actually the merging of C&I into that kind of commercial and institutional business so that you have one team really delivering strategically for their customers. And we've really seen the benefit of that coming through.

是的。不，絕對的。所以，阿爾瓦羅，這很有趣。顯然，您已經和我們一起工作了一段時間，並且您也見證了 NatWest Markets 的發展歷程。我認為從去年年初開始發生的真正具有戰略意義的重要事情，實際上是將 C&I 業務合併到商業和機構業務中，這樣就有一個團隊能夠真正為客戶提供策略性服務。我們已經切實看到了這樣做的好處。

We've had very robust noninterest income. There's been higher fee income coming through in payments and the strong performance from C&I is an important part of that. And it's really around the strategy that we've got of bringing more of the bank to more of our customers.

我們獲得了非常強勁的非利息收入。手續費收入增加，其中工商企業的強勁表現是重要因素。而這其實是圍繞著我們的策略展開，也就是讓更多的客戶享受到更多的銀行服務。

And a result of that, we saw the strong demand for FX management and then really strong risk management as well against the backdrop of the volatile markets that was there. So really making sure that we were in place for our customers when they needed us in terms of the general kind of market activity.

因此，我們看到了外匯管理的強勁需求，以及在當時動盪的市場背景下，對風險管理的強勁需求。因此，我們真正要確保在客戶需要我們的時候，我們能夠為他們提供全方位的市場活動支援。

So I would say it is very much the outcome of that strategy of bringing that NatWest activity into the C&I franchise, making sure that we're there to deliver and meet the kind of customer activity as we go forward. And we would expect that to kind of continue from here. Volatility is a big part, of course. It's hard to call where that will land. Customer activity is critical, but we kind of -- we really do see that as a really strong basis going forward.

所以我認為這很大程度上是將國民威斯敏斯特銀行的業務拓展到工商企業業務領域的策略成果，確保我們能夠滿足客戶未來的需求。我們預計這種情況會持續下去。當然，波動性也是一個重要因素。很難預測最終結果會如何。客戶活動固然重要，但我們確實認為這是未來發展的一個非常堅實的基礎。

I'd just remind you, as I often do on these calls, is when you're looking at noninterest income, it's always good to look at the three businesses. You do get a little bit of noise in the center as you move forward from here that will reduce a little bit as we go forward.

我只想提醒各位，就像我經常在電話會議上做的那樣，在考慮非利息收入時，最好同時關注這三項業務。從這裡往前走，中間會聽到一些噪音，但隨著我們繼續往前走，噪音會逐漸減少。

But overall income outlook kind of is -- I think we're very pleased with it, and that's what's enabled us to upgrade our guidance for this year. And you've heard me talk around the confidence we have as we go into 2026 as well. Thanks, Alvaro. Paul?

但整體收入前景——我認為我們對此非常滿意，也正因如此，我們才得以上調今年的業績預期。你們也聽我說過，我們對進入 2026 年充滿信心。謝謝你，阿爾瓦羅。保羅？

Thanks, Katie. And Alvaro, I sense your question on lending was specifically around the commercial institutional business. But just I think it's worth framing our, I guess, our lending growth and our lending opportunity more broadly before that. I say we've got a decent multiyear track record now of growing the three businesses. That's seven years at above 4%. This year, it's currently running up GBP16 billion. It's up 4.4%. So it's quite broad-based the growth.

謝謝你，凱蒂。阿爾瓦羅，我感覺你關於貸款的問題主要是關於商業機構貸款業務的。但我認為，在此之前，有必要更廣泛地闡述我們的貸款成長和貸款機會。我認為，我們現在已經取得了多年發展這三項業務的良好業績。那意味著連續七年收益率高於 4%。今年迄今為止，該項支出已高達160億英鎊。上漲了4.4%。所以這種增長是相當廣泛的。

If you drop down into the commercial franchise, it's a good spot. The quarter three print and the growth of around GBP3 billion is split between, I guess, the large corporates and the mid-market. It's pleasing to see the momentum in the commercial mid-market. You'll have heard me say before, I do think that's kind of a helpful proxy on the kind of wider UK environment.

如果你選擇進入商業特許經營領域，那將是一個不錯的選擇。第三季營收成長約 30 億英鎊，我猜這部分成長是由大型企業和中型市場共同實現的。令人欣喜的是，我們看到了中端商業市場的發展動能。你以前可能聽我說過，我認為這在某種程度上可以作為衡量英國整體環境的一個有用指標。

When you look at where the growth is coming from in the mid-market, -- you can see it in social housing. You can see it in certain parts of real estate. You can see it in parts of infrastructure. So again, it's quite broad-based.

當你觀察中端市場的成長來源時，你會發現社會住宅是成長的主要動力。在某些房地產領域，你可以看到這種情況。在一些基礎設施中可以看到它的存在。所以，它的基礎相當廣泛。

So lending as a total quantum, yes, strong, but the constituent businesses it's coming from is encouraging as well. Infrastructure is a big part of that. And what I'd say is I feel as if our commercial business is very well positioned to some of those bigger structural trends that we're seeing.

因此，從整體規模來看，貸款額確實強勁，但構成貸款額的企業也同樣令人鼓舞。基礎設施是其中很重要的一環。我想說的是，我覺得我們的商業業務已經很好地適應了我們目前看到的一些更大的結構性趨勢。

So whether it is infrastructure, whether it's project finance, whether it's sort of the social housing agenda. So the kind of combination of the structural trends and the policy trends support those areas we have deep specialisms in and have had for quite a few years. So yeah, encouraging, as you say. Thanks Alvaro.

所以無論是基礎建設、專案融資，或是社會住宅議程。因此，結構性趨勢和政策趨勢的結合，有利於我們擁有深厚專業知識並已深耕多年的領域。是的，正如你所說，這令人鼓舞。謝謝你，阿爾瓦羅。

Chris Cant, Autonomous.

克里斯·坎特，自主。

Just on loan growth, Paul, I mean, I think it's been an area where if I look at consensus, consensus has got 3% or less loan growth in over the next couple of years. It's been something that as a management team, you've typically been reluctant to sort of give an expectation on beyond saying you have a track record of growing quicker than the market.

保羅，就貸款成長而言，我的意思是，我認為，如果我看一下市場共識，未來幾年貸款成長率預計在 3% 或以下。身為管理團隊，我們通常不願意對未來做出任何預期，只會說我們過往的成長速度超過了市場平均。

But as you think out to the next planning period, how are you thinking about that in absolute terms? I presume you have a view on how much growth you think the market is likely to see and you want to exceed that. But should we be thinking about 4% as a sort of reasonable expectation or in excess of 4% is a reasonable expectation, assuming no kind of macro volatility or blow up?

但當你展望下一個規劃期時，你從絕對意義上是如何考慮的呢？我猜您對市場可能的成長幅度已經有了預期，並且您希望超越這個預期。但是，假設沒有宏觀經濟波動或崩潰，我們應該把 4% 視為合理的預期，還是應該把超過 4% 視為合理的預期？

And then on the returns target, please. So again, it's an area where you're a little bit different from your domestic peers. The last two return targets you've given, I guess, have been a little bit more of a through-the-cycle expectation where you would expect to hit them sort of regardless of what was happening to rates and the macro environment.

然後是回報目標，謝謝。所以，在這方面你和你的國內同齡人有點不同。我想，你給的最後兩個報酬目標，更像是對整個經濟週期的預期，你希望無論利率和宏觀環境如何變化，都能實現這些目標。

Now that things have settled down from, I guess, customer behavioral perspective, in particular, on the deposit front, are you going to be giving us a different flavor of return expectation when you're looking out to 2028?

現在，從客戶行為的角度來看，特別是存款方面，情況已經趨於穩定。展望 2028 年，你們是否會為我們帶來不同的回報預期？

So will you be guiding on where you think the business will be in '28 with your base case assumption rather than a sort of a floor underpinning a broader range of potentially more downside scenarios around customer behavior and macro activity and so on?

那麼，您會根據基本假設來預測公司在 2028 年的發展狀況，還是會設定一個底線，來支撐一系列可能更不利於客戶行為和宏觀經濟活動等的更廣泛情景？

Great. Okay. Thank you, Chris. So I'll take the second one quickly first. Obviously, we'll see you in February and talk about it.

偉大的。好的。謝謝你，克里斯。那我先快速拿第二個。顯然，我們二月會見面討論這件事。

And obviously, some of the topics you alluded to are what we're thinking about as we go into February and we share '28 numbers. But obviously, we will lay out what assumptions we've made around those targets at that time. But it's a very active debate, as you rightly allude to. On the lending side, I think you characterized the position very well and very consistent with how we see it. We're very confident in the track record that we've had.

顯然，你提到的一些主題正是我們在進入二月並分享 2028 年數據時正在思考的問題。但很顯然，屆時我們將闡明我們圍繞這些目標所做的假設。但正如你所指出的，這的確是一場非常活躍的辯論。在貸款方面，我認為你對該立場的描述非常準確，與我們的看法非常一致。我們對我們過去的業績非常有信心。

Our ability to grow above market has been proven year on year. It does vary by business and market conditions as to as well. But that's what gives us confidence in terms of the outlook for the lending position.

我們年復一年地保持高於市場平均水平的成長能力已經得到證明。這也會因企業和市場狀況而異。但正是這一點讓我們對貸款前景充滿信心。

I'm not going to declare new targets or new deltas relative to market growth on the call. I think I've given quite enough color about, I guess, our historic track record and how we're thinking about the business going forward to hopefully give you a sense of confidence and optimism we have around the lending profile. Thanks Chris.

我不會在電話會議上宣布新的目標或與市場成長相關的新幅度。我認為我已經充分介紹了我們過往的業績記錄以及我們對未來業務的思考，希望能讓您感受到我們對貸款業務的信心和樂觀態度。謝謝克里斯。

Jonathan Pierce, Jefferies.

喬納森·皮爾斯，傑富瑞集團。

I've got two questions. One is on the Equity Tier 1 target moving forward. Is that something you'll potentially give us a bit more of an update on in February? Or are we going to have to wait until the back end of the year once Basel 3.1 is pretty much nailed down. I ask, of course, because the MDA is 11.6.

我有兩個問題。其中一個目標是實現一級股權資本目標。您二月會提供我們更多相關資訊嗎？還是說我們必須等到年底，等到巴塞爾協議 3.1 基本敲定之後才能進行？我這麼問當然是因為 MDA 是 11.6。

I guess it drops 30 bps, something like that on Basel 3.1. And it feels like the scope to probably operate towards the lower end of your current range rather than the middle or the upper end of it. The second question is a bit more detailed, I'm afraid, around deferred tax assets.

我猜它會下降 30 個基點，大概是巴塞爾協議 3.1 的幅度。感覺現在的政策空間應該更傾向於當前價格區間的下限，而不是中間或上限。恐怕第二個問題比較複雜，涉及遞延所得稅資產。

In the nine months to date, the DTA deduction from capital has fallen by GBP250 million, and it was GBP100 million in the last quarter alone. So it's not an insignificant amount of capital build that's now coming from that DTA.

截至目前，九個月以來，資本的遞延所得稅抵扣額減少了 2.5 億英鎊，光是上一季就減少了 1 億英鎊。因此，現在透過該遞延所得稅法案所獲得的資本累積金額不小。

So I just wondered if we should expect that sort of run rate to continue until the stock has run out a few years forward. I guess we should because RBS plc is now generating good profit and so on and so forth.

所以我想知道，這種成長速度是否會持續到幾年後股票售罄為止。我想我們應該這樣做，因為蘇格蘭皇家銀行現在獲利狀況良好等等。

And sorry, just a supplementary on that. The last three years, you bought back around GBP300 million a year of unrecognized DTA back onto the balance sheet. Are we going to see the same again in the fourth quarter of this year, Katie?

抱歉，我還要補充一點。過去三年，你們每年將約 3 億英鎊的未確認遞延所得稅資產重新納入資產負債表。凱蒂，今年第四季我們會看到同樣的情況再次發生嗎？

Okay. Thanks, Jonathan. So Katie, why don't you lead out on the CET1?

好的。謝謝你，喬納森。凱蒂，為什麼不帶頭參加 CET1 呢？

And then I will get to --

然後我就會說到…--

And then we'll get to some of the DTA.

接下來我們會談到一些DTA相關的內容。

No, that's all right. It's one of my preferred specialist subjects, so I'll make you wait for the answers on that one just for a little bit longer. But on CET1 Look, there's a lot of things going on at the moment, Jonathan, with CET1, as you're very much aware.

不，沒關係。這是我最喜歡的專業領域之一，所以這個問題的答案還要再讓你們等一會兒。但是，喬納森，正如你所知，CET1 目前有很多事情正在發生。

Obviously, the Bank of England is looking at their review of capital requirements. So we're looking forward to the FEC's update on that assessment. It's due to come out on December 2. So we'll see what comes through with that.

顯然，英格蘭銀行正在審視其資本要求。因此，我們期待聯邦選舉委員會就此評估發布最新進展。預計12月2日上映。所以，我們拭目以待。

Our approach on capital has always been to review it as part of our annual ICAP process and the risk appetite review that we do as well as working with the PRA on their kind of annual stress tests. And you're familiar with the numbers.

我們對資本的態度一直是，將其作為我們年度 ICAP 流程和風險偏好審查的一部分進行審查，同時與 PRA 合作進行他們的年度壓力測試。你對這些數字很熟悉。

We can see that our capital position has really improved over the last couple of years as we've derisked the business. We've also added a significant amount of capital into the business as a result of the RWA inflation that we've had. I think importantly, as part of the SREP process that we had this year that just came out in Q3. Our Pillar 2A there was reduced by 17 basis points. which took our statutory minimum requirement to 11.6.

我們可以看到，隨著我們降低了業務風險，過去幾年我們的資本狀況確實得到了改善。由於風險加權資產 (RWA) 通膨，我們也向公司投入了大量資金。我認為重要的是，這是我們今年第三季剛發布的 SREP 流程的一部分。我們的第二支柱A項利率下調了17個基點，使我們的法定最低要求降至11.6。

I do expect that number to reduce further once Basel 3.1 is implemented on the January 1, 2027. And we've got pretty good line of sight in that. So therefore, when you look at it, you can see that we've got strong buffers relative to that lower bound of 13% of our current targets.

我預計，一旦巴塞爾協議 3.1 於 2027 年 1 月 1 日實施，該數字將進一步下降。而且我們在這方面視野相當開闊。所以，從這個角度來看，我們相對於目前目標的下限 13% 而言，擁有很強的緩衝空間。

So I'm not committing today as to the date or what we might do on any change of our 13% to 14% target, but we are actively thinking about the appropriate capital targets and capital buffers that we have required for our business on a more medium to longer term.

因此，我今天不會承諾具體日期，也不會承諾在13%到14%的目標發生任何變化時我們會採取什麼措施，但我們正在積極思考我們業務在中長期內所需的適當資本目標和資本緩衝。

Look, if you go to the deferred tax aspect of it, I think there's a couple of things to remember within there that the treatment within capital is slightly different than the treatment within accounting. So you sort of -- you can see changes coming through at different times. differences of recognition versus utilization of those assets. But we have just over GBP800 million of DTA assets remaining. We have written back about GBP1.2 billion since 2023.

你看，如果你深入研究遞延所得稅方面的問題，我認為有幾點需要記住，資本方面的處理方式與會計方面的處理方式略有不同。所以你可以看到，在不同的時期會出現一些變化，例如對這些資產的確認和利用方式有所不同。但我們還剩下略高於 8 億英鎊的 DTA 資產。自 2023 年以來，我們已回覆約 12 億英鎊。

So we don't have a significant amount more to recognize. Interestingly, with deferred tax assets, you've got to really look at where they're sitting in terms of the legal entity structure as well and what's kind of -- and the ability to use them is very much structured by that legal entity structure.

所以，我們沒有其他值得關注的了。有趣的是，對於遞延所得稅資產，你還得仔細看看它們在法律實體結構中的位置，以及——而且使用它們的能力很大程度上是由該法律實體結構決定的。

We do think, however, that our utilization in Q4 would be around in line with Q3. And then for 2026 onwards, we do expect a slightly lower utilization, probably around GBP100 million to GBP150 million per year.

不過，我們認為第四季的利用率將與第三季大致持平。然後，從 2026 年起，我們預計利用率會略有下降，可能每年約 1 億至 1.5 億英鎊。

So continued support to capital generation, but at a slightly different level just given that we've used a lot of the losses up there or given where other historic losses are sitting and your ability to kind of access them. And Jonathan, we happily have a longer chat on DTA offline as well with you, if that's something that would be helpful.

因此，我們將繼續支持資本積累，但力度會略有不同，因為我們已經利用了很多虧損，或者考慮到其他歷史虧損的現狀以及您獲取這些虧損的能力。喬納森，如果您覺得有幫助的話，我們也很樂意與您在線下就 DTA 進行更長時間的交流。

Guy Stebbings, BNP Paribas Exane.

Guy Stebbings，法國巴黎銀行Exane。

So just around NII and the NIM bridge in Q3, and then I had one very short supplementary. So the hedge build was, I think, broadly as expected. The better performance in terms of the NIM bridge, I think came from funding and other and then to a lesser extent, the asset margins, which were up fractionally. So firstly, on the funding and other, I think that included some hedge accounting and reallocations between NII and OI. So perhaps you could just clarify exactly what's going on there.

所以就在 NII 和 NIM 橋第三季前後，然後我還有一個非常短的補充。所以，我認為，對沖基金的建構總體上符合預期。我認為淨利差橋樑表現較好，主要來自資金和其他方面，其次是資產利潤率略有上升。首先，關於資金和其他方面，我認為這包括一些套期會計處理以及淨利息收入和營業收入之間的重新分配。所以，或許您可以解釋一下那裡到底發生了什麼事。

And to be clear, if it's correct to think that we should expect any sort of sequential benefits from there, but nor it reverses, that's the right way to think about it?

需要明確的是，如果我們認為我們應該預期從中獲得某種程度的後續好處，但情況不會逆轉，那麼這種想法是正確的嗎？

And then on the asset margins, do you think we should expect to see further growth in there? Or is that really just a function of Sainsbury's coming in fully and then perhaps need to be mindful of some minor mortgage spread churn as we look forward?

那麼，關於資產利潤率，您認為我們應該預期它會進一步成長嗎？或者這真的只是 Sainsbury's 全面進入市場後的一個結果，然後我們或許需要注意未來抵押貸款利差的一些小幅波動？

And then just a very quick point of clarification. On RWAs, I recognize the guidance hasn't changed. You flagged the business growth and CRD IV model changes. But just interested if we're coming into Q4 in a slightly better position than you originally thought and whether that means we might be more towards the lower end of that range for the full year guide.

最後，我還要快速澄清一點。關於風險加權資產（RWA），我承認相關指導原則沒有改變。您指出了業務成長和 CRD IV 模型的變化。我只是想知道，我們進入第四季時的處境是否比您最初預想的要好一些，這是否意味著我們全年業績指引可能會更接近該範圍的下限。

Thanks. Katie, over to you.

謝謝。凱蒂，該你了。

Yeah, perfect, Lovely. Thanks very much. So first of all, yes, funding and other, up 3 basis points, 2 bps related to treasury, and that's not going to repeat. This bucket is always interesting in the walk. It's got a number of different moving parts within it.

是的，完美，太棒了。非常感謝。首先，是的，資金和其他方面上漲了 3 個基點，其中 2 個基點與財政部有關，但這不會重演。散步時，這個桶子總是能引起人們的興趣。它內部有許多不同的活動部件。

And really, it's kind of the reflection of the management of a GBP700 billion balance sheet that we need to consider kind of in any given quarter. So you do get the odd basis point that comes out. But this quarter, we did implement a hedge accounting solution for some of that FX swap activity that we've talked about over the last number of quarters. It's a one-off 2 bp benefit. In NIM, we don't expect it to repeat nor do we expect it to reverse.

實際上，這在某種程度上反映了我們在任何季度都需要考慮的7000億英鎊資產負債表的管理問題。所以確實會得到一些奇怪的基點。但本季度，我們確實針對過去幾季以來我們一直在討論的一些外匯掉期活動實施了套期會計解決方案。這是一次性的 2 個基點優勢。在NIM中，我們既不期望這種情況重演，也不期望這種情況逆轉。

But going forward, you should see less volatility in the NIM from that activity quarter-on-quarter, which will be a lower drag to NII, a lower benefit to non-interest income.

但展望未來，您應該會看到該活動導致的淨利差逐季波動性降低，這將對淨利息收入造成較小的拖累，對非利息收入的收益也會降低。

But really importantly, the same economic benefit overall as we go through. If I look at the asset margin, up 1 basis point is a very kind of small movement. And you're absolutely right, Guy, is benefiting from a whole quarter of Sainsbury's. I'm not expecting particular expansion in that line. It's very much dependent in one quarter on the mix and what you might see kind of happening within there at any time.

但更重要的是，我們最終獲得的總體經濟效益是一樣的。如果我看一下資產保證金，上漲 1 個基點是非常小的波動。蓋伊，你說得完全正確，他從 Sainsbury's 的四分之一股份中獲益匪淺。我預計這條產品線不會有特別大的擴張。這很大程度上取決於投資組合的組成，以及你隨時可能看到其中發生的情況。

If I spend a little moment on the kind of mortgage margins that we have within there, you're absolutely right. If you think of where our mortgage margins are versus the NIM overall, that's clearly something that you do see as a bit of a negative -- we've always talked that the book is around 70 basis points.

如果我花點時間仔細分析我們目前的房貸利潤率，你的說法完全正確。如果你看看我們的抵押貸款利潤率與整體淨利差之間的關係，這顯然是一個不利因素——我們一直說賬面利潤率在 70 個基點左右。

We do see at the moment that we're writing a little below that, just -- and that's very much a symptom of the really intense competition that we're seeing on mortgages. So again, that will be a feature of the NIM as we go through from here. The market does move around in terms of where that is. But certainly, at the moment, there's a little bit of pressure within that space.

我們看到，目前我們的貸款額略低於這個水平——這很大程度上反映了抵押貸款市場競爭的激烈程度。所以，這將會是NIM接下來的一個特色。市場行情確實會隨之波動。但目前來看，這個領域確實存在一些壓力。

In terms of RWAs, I would really think of that really as timing as much as anything else. I wouldn't say it's going to be particularly having an impact. In the next quarter, I have talked about more material CRD IV impacts coming through. There'll be a little bit of loan growth, of course. We've obviously continued to work on our risk management -- sorry, our RWA management program as well. But I wouldn't look at that and go actually, that's going to pull them down. It really is just timing. Thanks, Guy. Hopefully, that answered it all.

就RWA而言，我認為時機比其他任何因素都更重要。我不會說它會產生特別大的影響。在接下來的一個季度裡，我談到了 CRD IV 帶來的更多實質影響。貸款額當然也會略為成長。我們顯然一直在繼續改進我們的風險管理——抱歉，也包括我們的風險加權資產管理計劃。但我不會這樣想，然後說，這實際上會把他們拉下來。真的只是時機問題。謝謝你，蓋伊。希望這樣就能解答所有問題了。

Robert Noble, Deutsche Bank.

羅伯特‧諾布爾，德意志銀行。

I wanted to ask one on liquidity, please. So there's been a continued rotation in your liquidity from cash into government bonds that seems to pick up, right? So what's the spread pickup you're getting off that? And hypothetically, could you move all cash into gilts? Or what's the regulatory restriction that caps you out from doing that?

我想問一個關於流動性的問題。所以，你們的流動性一直在從現金轉向政府債券，而且這種趨勢似乎還在加劇，對吧？那麼，你從中獲得的利差是多少呢？假設一下，你能把所有現金都換成英國國債嗎？或者說，是什麼監管限制阻止你這樣做？

And then just on the term deposit outflows in the quarter, should we expect the same next quarter given that one year and two years ago, rates looked equally as high. Is there a similar maturity issue in Q4?

然後，就本季的定期存款流出而言，考慮到一年前和兩年前的利率同樣很高，我們是否應該預期下個季度也會出現同樣的情況？第四季是否有類似的成熟度問題？

Thanks, Rob. So I take the deposit one quickly and then back to you on liquidity. On deposits, Rob, we did have some particularly large maturities in the third quarter. And you're right, if you think back two years ago when we had the kind of the backup in rates, they related to that. So it's not that we don't have maturities in quarter four, but they're not of the same size or price or margin price points as what we had in quarter three.

謝謝你，羅伯。所以我迅速收取了存款，然後把流動性問題回饋給你。羅布，關於存款方面，我們在第三季確實有一些數額特別大的到期款項。你說得對，回想兩年前我們遇到的利率積壓問題，就與此有關。所以並不是說我們在第四季沒有到期債務，而是它們的規模、價格或利潤率與第三季的到期債務不同。

And as I said, our retention rates are actually quite good. We're just being very dynamic in where we see value and retention and where we don't. So that's how to think about that. Katie?

正如我所說，我們的客戶留存率其實相當不錯。我們只是在哪些方面具有價值和留存率，哪些方面沒有價值和留存率，方面會採取非常靈活的方式。這就是思考這個問題的方式。凱蒂？

Yeah, sure. On liquidity. So a couple of things going on in that liquidity ratio. One, we've recognized the TFSME repayment that we're about to do given the way that's moved through. So don't -- so don't kind of forget that piece, that will be happening in the next kind of few weeks.

當然可以。關於流動性。所以，流動比率背後有兩個因素在運作。第一，鑑於目前的進展情況，我們已經意識到即將進行的 TFSME 還款。所以，別忘了——別忘了接下來幾週會發生的事。

But you're absolutely right. If I look at the swap we've made into gilts, it really was a question to get some of that pickup. It's about 50 basis points in the five to seven year kind of level. So very pleased to have done that. We wouldn't move the entire piece of our liquidity portfolio into gilts.

但你說得完全正確。如果我看看我們向母豬進行的交換，那確實是一個獲得一些利益的問題。這大約相當於五到七年內下降了 50 個基點。很高興我做了這件事。我們不會將全部流動性投資組合轉移到英國國債。

That would be not quite putting all your money on black. But it's -- we do kind of obviously have some restrictions around where we have to hold and the restriction is really a function of that leverage ratio as well to make sure that, that's the right balance. I would say at the moment, the portfolio is split around 50-50.

那還不能算是把所有錢都押在黑色上。但是——我們顯然對持倉位置有一些限制，而這種限制實際上也是槓桿率的函數，以確保達到正確的平衡。我認為目前投資組合的比例大約是 50-50。

So there's plenty of opportunity to do a little bit more of maneuvering into gilts if we think that that's attractive as well. But certainly, just as you would expect us to be being quite dynamic in the management of that portfolio. Thanks very much, Rob.

所以，如果我們認為引進母豬也很有吸引力，那麼還有很多機會可以進一步引進母豬。當然，正如您所期望的那樣，我們在管理該投資組合方面會非常積極主動。非常感謝，羅布。

Benjamin Toms, RBC.

班傑明·湯姆斯，RBC。

First one is just to help my structural hedge model, if that's all right. Your guidance this year for structural hedge maturities of GBP35 billion. Should we be making the same assumption for next year? I'm just conscious that you added to the hedge in '21 and 2022. So I'm not sure whether that should mean there's a pickup in maturities or whether you're just feathering at the front end, which means maturities should be pretty consistent as we go through the years.

第一個問題只是為了幫助我建立結構性對沖模型，可以嗎？今年您對350億英鎊的結構性避險到期資產的指導意見。明年我們是否也應該做出同樣的假設？我只是注意到你在 2021 年和 2022 年增加了對沖金。所以我不太確定這是否意味著到期日將會增加，或者只是前端有所調整，這意味著隨著時間的推移，到期日應該會相當穩定。

And then secondly, on other income, you purchased cushion in 2023 to provide workplace pension solutions. Can you just give us your latest strategic thoughts on that part of the business, what you think you do well and what you think you lack?

其次，關於其他收入，您在 2023 年購買了緩衝資金，以提供工作場所退休金解決方案。您能否談談您對這部分業務的最新策略思考，您認為哪些方面做得好，哪些方面做得不足？

Yeah, perfect. So in terms of the maturity, I mean, Ben, the way that we look at it, it's GBP172 billion at the moment. It's obviously a function of current account and NIBs growth. We're pleased to see the growth in that. You'll recall that we do a kind of look back of 12 months as we work out how much we're going to reinvest.

對，完美。所以就成熟度而言，我的意思是，本，我們這樣看，目前是 1720 億英鎊。這顯然與經常帳和淨投資額的成長有關。我們很高興看到這方面的成長。您應該記得，我們​​在計算要再投資多少資金時，會回顧過去 12 個月的情況。

We also do some work during the year on the behavioral life in terms of what's happening with our actual current account holders and things like that. But actually, what I would guide you to at the moment is think of it really as GBP35 billion a year.

我們一年中也會做一些關於行為生活方面的工作，例如我們實際的活期帳戶持有人的情況等等。但實際上，我現在想引導你們的是，把它看作是每年 350 億英鎊。

If we see particularly strong growth on those current accounts, it might change in the future years. But for your model, I would stick to the 35 number. It's very even because we've been so mechanistic. So I wouldn't kind of deviate from there. Paul, do you want to?

如果這些經常帳戶出現特別強勁的成長，未來幾年情況可能會發生變化。但就你的模型而言，我建議還是堅持使用 35 這個數字。之所以結果非常均衡，是因為我們一直過於機械化。所以我不會偏離那個方向。保羅，你願意嗎？

Yeah, I'll take workplace pensions. So Ben, cushion is a good business. It's got a strong proposition, very strong technology, and it's proven attractive to our kind of commercial mid-market customers. Obviously, there's kind of legal and kind of market dynamics that make it important for a lot of those clients to be able to offer workplace pensions to their employees and colleagues. And it's proven very attractive.

是的，我會選擇領取工作場所退休金。所以本，靠墊生意很好。它擁有強大的競爭力、非常強大的技術，並且已經證明對我們這類中端商業市場客戶具有吸引力。顯然，出於法律和市場動態方面的考慮，許多客戶都認為向員工和同事提供工作場所退休金非常重要。事實證明，它非常有吸引力。

And it's going forward, I think it's an important part of the proposition that we can provide or facilitate that service. There has also been a series of reg changes in the last couple of years around Master Trust, which certainly lend themselves to Master Trust having significant scale.

我認為，展望未來，我們能夠提供或促成這項服務，這是我們提議的重要組成部分。近幾年，主信託也經歷了一系列監管變化，無疑有利於主信託擁有相當大的規模。

So net-net, it's a good business. It's an important proposition to be able to offer to our commercial clients, but there have been some regulatory changes as well. So that's how we're thinking about, I guess, that workplace pensions area. Thanks Ben.

總而言之，這是一門不錯的生意。能夠向我們的商業客戶提供這項服務是一項重要的舉措，但監管方面也發生了一些變化。所以，我想，這就是我們對工作場所退休金領域的看法。謝謝你，本。

Ed Firth, KBW.

Ed Firth，KBW。

I guess I had two related questions. I mean the first one is, if I look at your returns in Q3, they're now -- even if you take out the one-off, over 20%. And if you can normalize, we can normalize the hedge and capital is quite strong. So you're easily getting into the mid-20s or high-20s. And so I'm just trying to think how do you think about that in terms of what is an appropriate level of return?

我想問兩個相關的問題。我的意思是，第一點是，如果我看一下你第三季的收益，即使扣除一次性收益，現在的收益率也超過 20%。如果你們能夠實現正常化，我們就可以實現對沖正常化，而且資本實力相當雄厚。所以你很容易就能達到25歲或20多歲。所以，我只是想思考一下，從適當的收益水準來看，您是如何看待這個問題的？

Because we can talk about the operating leverage and lower capital requirements going forward, et cetera, which would push that up even more. And I'm thinking of that, I guess, in the context of a bank tax potentially in November because it feels like it will be quite a tough discussion between you and the government about levels of return and appropriate levels of return.

因為我們可以討論未來的營運槓桿和較低的資本需求等等，這將進一步推高這個比例。我想，這或許與 11 月可能徵收的銀行稅有關，因為感覺屆時你和政府之間會就回報水平和適當的回報水平展開一場相當艱難的討論。

So I guess that would be my first question. At what level do you think we make enough now and actually we should be focusing on growing from here and fixing the returns? I guess that's the first question.

所以，我想這應該是我的第一個問題。你認為我們目前的收益水準應該達到什麼程度，才能真正開始專注於成長並提高報酬率？我想這是第一個問題。

Then the second one is sort of related to that. We're all sort of thinking now about -- I know it's sort of two years away, but what happens when the hedge runs out. And if you are at sort of peak returns, what do you do next, I guess, is the question? Because there was various discussions earlier in the year about potentially you buying things, but you obviously stepped away from that. And I'm just thinking, is that what we should think about going forward?

第二個問題與此有些關聯。我們現在都在思考——我知道這還有兩年時間，但是當對沖基金到期時會發生什麼。如果你已經達到了收益的頂峰，那麼接下來該怎麼做呢？我想，這才是問題所在。因為今年早些時候曾有過關於你可能購買東西的各種討論，但你顯然已經放棄了。我只是在想，這是我們今後該考慮的方向嗎？

Because relative to your own returns, I think it's going to be tough to find anything that makes an equivalent level if that's okay. So rather rambling two questions, but I think quite key.

因為相對於你自己的收益而言，我認為很難找到能達到同等水平的東西，如果這樣可以的話。所以，我提出了兩個看似雜亂卻又非常重要的問題。

Yeah. Thanks, Ed. Good to hear from you. I guess there's a number of those points intersect with each other. First thing I'd say is, as you well know, it's taken a long time for a number of banks to return their cost of capital.

是的。謝謝，埃德。很高興收到你的來信。我想這些點之間有很多交集。首先我想說的是，正如您所知，許多銀行花了很長時間才收回資本成本。

So in some ways, it's healthy that we're having that discussion. You look at it through another lens, notwithstanding that UK banks are still valued very differently to many other parts of the world for what could arguably be said to be similar businesses, similar business models and mixes and in certain extent, very similar regulatory regimes.

所以從某種意義上來說，我們進行這樣的討論是件好事。從另一個角度來看，儘管英國銀行業與其他許多地區的銀行業相比，其價值仍然大相徑庭，儘管可以說它們的業務、商業模式和組合相似，並且在某種程度上，它們的監管制度也非常相似。

I'm going to slightly disappoint you and give you a kind of a politician's answer about what's the right levels of returns?

我接下來要給出的答案可能會讓你有點失望，我會用一種政治家的口吻來回答關於「合適的投資回報率是多少」這個問題。

I think the key way we think about it is from a management team perspective and a Board perspective is we need to get the balance right between supporting customers and deploying our capital to do that and helping them grow and hopefully helping the UK between investing in the business, it's a very competitive sector, not just the large incumbents, but there's a very broad range of competitors. It's crucial that we invest in the business. And primarily, that relates to technology and people.

我認為，從管理團隊和董事會的角度來看，關鍵在於我們需要在支持客戶、運用資本幫助他們成長以及希望幫助英國發展之間找到平衡。這是一個競爭非常激烈的行業，不僅是大型現有企業，還有各種各樣的競爭對手。對企業進行投資至關重要。這主要與技術和人有關。

And we need to make the right returns and return and present what hopefully everybody believes is an attractive investment case.

我們需要獲得正確的回報，並提出一個大家都會認為有吸引力的投資方案。

So the debate we have is about the balance between those three items. It's a spot RoTE for the quarter. As you say, it has some one-offs in, but yes, fair challenge, it's year to date, it's 19.5%. And if you take off the one-offs, it's high-18. We're working very hard on all the lines, not just the structural hedge.

所以我們爭論的焦點在於這三者之間的平衡。這是本季的熱門股票。正如你所說，其中有一些一次性事件，但沒錯，這是一個公平的挑戰，今年迄今為止，它佔比為 19.5%。如果去掉個別案例，那就是 18 歲以上。我們正在全力以赴地研究所有線路，而不僅僅是結構性對沖。

We're trying to grow lending growth. We're driving cost out of the business. We're working the balance sheet an awful lot harder. So we think those returns are the kind of the fruits of our activity. And I think as a Board, you just have to -- we just have to debate, let's get the balance right between making sure we've got a really attractive and sustainable business in the long term, and we're investing it -- we're doing what we need to do in terms of supporting customers and delivering returns.

我們正在努力促進貸款業務成長。我們正在降低企業成本。我們正在更加努力地調整資產負債表。所以我們認為這些回報就是我們努力的成果。我認為作為董事會，我們必須——我們必須進行辯論，在確保我們擁有一個真正有吸引力且可持續發展的長期業務和進行投資之間找到平衡——在支持客戶和實現回報方面，我們正在做我們需要做的事情。

So that's how we think about it. I know I haven't shared a number there for because I don't think that's the appropriate way to do it. On M&A or kind of where does that lead, which is a very connected question. The strategy is working. I laid it out two years ago.

我們就是這麼想的。我知道我還沒有在那裡分享過電話號碼，因為我認為那樣做並不合適。關於併購，或者說併購最終會走向何方，這是一個非常相關的問題。這個策略奏效了。我兩年前就訂好計畫了。

The organic plan is obviously proving successful. We're growing all 3 of our businesses. We're driving a lot of simplification. I think we've got a good runway to go. We've managed to do that without changing our kind of risk profile. That hasn't been a constraint on our growth. We've continued to grow. So that's great. So organic plan looks good.

有機種植計劃顯然取得了成功。我們的三項業務都在發展壯大。我們正在大力推進簡化流程。我認為我們還有很長的路要走。我們成功地在不改變自身風險承受能力的情況下做到了這一點。但這並沒有限制我們的發展。我們持續發展壯大。那太好了。所以有機種植計劃看起來不錯。

If opportunities come to accelerate that plan, then we'll look at them. You'll have heard probably 5 times my quote about the financial high bar, but that remains true. It has to be -- if we're going to deploy capital on something that we think can accelerate the plan, it has to be compelling from a shareholder perspective. And that's how we look at things. It has to otherwise, it's I think it's a hard case for me to make to investors.

如果出現加快該計劃實施的機會，我們會考慮採用。你可能已經聽過我關於財務門檻很高的說法五遍了，但這仍然是事實。必須如此——如果我們要將資金投入到我們認為可以加速計劃實施的項目上，那麼從股東的角度來看，這個項目必須具有吸引力。我們就是這樣看待事物的。否則就必須如此，我覺得我很難向投資人證明這一點。

So we will look, but we'll be cold eyed. And the counterfactual, as you say, when the organic plan is performing so well, the counterfactual can be arguably more challenging. But I think I have a responsibility to do that in terms of the alternative uses of the capital. So I've expanded a little bit there. Hopefully, that's given you a sense of just how as management, we think about those topics.

所以我們會看，但我們會保持冷漠的目光。正如你所說，當有機成長計畫運作得如此順利時，反事實分析可能會更具挑戰性。但我認為，就資金的其他用途而言，我有責任這樣做。所以我在這方面稍微擴充了一下。希望這能讓您了解我們管理階層是如何看待這些問題的。

We are now approaching 10:00 AM. So we'll take our last question from Andrew Coombs from Citi.

現在快到上午10點了。那麼，我們來回答花旗銀行的安德魯·庫姆斯提出的最後一個問題。

I guess one follow-up and two follow-ups really. Just firstly, on that point about capital return versus inorganic versus organic loan growth. I mean, you yourself have said there's a very high bar for inorganic given the returns you're already producing.

我想應該是後續跟進和兩次後續跟進吧。首先，關於資本回報、無機成長和有機成長之間的貸款成長問題。我的意思是，你自己也說過，考慮到你們目前已經獲得的利益，非有機成長的門檻非常高。

And obviously, now you're trading well above tangible book. The buybacks are also slightly less accretive than they would have once been. So when you're thinking about the dividend payout, the 50% policy, any reason why that couldn't be higher going forward? What are the pros and cons of shifting that dividend payout ratio?

顯然，現在你的交易價格遠高於帳面價值。股票回購帶來的收益也比以前略有下降。那麼，在考慮股利支付和50%的政策時，有什麼理由認為未來的股利支付不能更高呢？調整股利支付率的利弊是什麼？

And then second question, just on the structural hedge. You're still at 2.5-year average duration. Your peers are all now at 3.5 partly due to what they see to be the behavioral life of the deposit base. I'm sure partly due to technical reasons as well. But perhaps you could elaborate on the maturity profile of the hedge and why you don't see the need to increase it here.

第二個問題，關於結構性避險。你們的平均持續時間仍然是 2.5 年。你的同行現在都達到了 3.5，部分原因是他們認為存款基礎的行為生命週期改變了。我確信部分原因也是技術方面的。但或許您可以詳細說明一下對沖的到期情況，以及為什麼您認為沒有必要在這裡增加對沖規模。

Great. Thanks, Andrew. I'll take the first. You take the second, Katie?

偉大的。謝謝你，安德魯。我選第一個。凱蒂，你選第二個？

Okay.

好的。

Okay. So Andy, obviously, we've increased the ordinary dividend from 40% to 50%. We're in the first year of that. In parallel, we also said we'll look at surplus capital at the half year and the full year, as you would expect us to with the Board. We're very keen to have a consistent approach to surplus capital distribution. So we're not actively reviewing the ordinary at the moment. But over time, obviously, it's a responsible thing for the Board to do. Katie, on the average life of the hedge?

好的。所以安迪，很顯然，我們將普通股股息從 40% 提高到了 50%。我們正處於第一年。同時，我們也表示，我們將按照你們的預期，在半年和全年時審查盈餘資本，並與董事會進行討論。我們非常希望採取一致的方式來分配盈餘資本。所以目前我們並沒有積極地對常規做法進行審查。但從長遠來看，這顯然是董事會應該盡的職責。凱蒂，你說說樹籬的平均壽命吧？

Yeah, absolutely. So it's interesting -- as we look at the hedge, it's important to remember the hedge has got two portions within it. There's the equity hedge and also the product hedge. So you're absolutely right. The product hedge is 2.5.

是的，絕對的。所以很有意思——當我們觀察樹籬時，重要的是要記住樹籬內部有兩個部分。既有權利對沖，也有產品對沖。所以你的說法完全正確。產品對沖為 2.5。

The total hedge is closer to 3. I think it's important as you look at the assumptions on this is the mechanistic model that we've had has played out very well for us. I mean, for me, I think you'd only increase your duration if you felt the duration of your eligible deposits had increased based on behavioral assumptions. I think given what we are seeing in terms of movement that we have not just on the current accounts, that wouldn't actually necessarily be something that I would say that we've seen in our books. I'm not doing that.

總共的對沖金額接近 3。我認為，在審視這些假設時，重要的是要認識到，我們一直以來所採用的機制模型對我們來說非常有效。我的意思是，就我而言，我認為只有當你根據行為假設認為符合條件的存款期限有所延長時，你才會延長存款期限。我認為，就我們目前所看到的變動而言，不僅僅是經常帳戶的變動，這實際上並不是我們在帳簿上看到的現象。我不會那樣做。

And I think it's also really important. We've always been very clear that with the hedge. It isn't there for us to express a view on where rates are sitting. Others sometimes have taken different views on that, and you need to talk to them on that. But that's for me, if you were to try to extend at this point, the absolute pickup you'd be getting wouldn't be logical for the difference you would be making in it.

我認為這真的非常重要。我們一直都非常明確地表示，要對沖。我們無法就利率現況發表意見。其他人有時對此有不同看法，你需要就此與他們溝通。但對我來說，如果你現在試圖延長電池續航時間，你所獲得的提升幅度與你所做的改變並不相符。

And we don't necessarily see that actually within our underlying numbers that we're seeing those changes in behavioral likes that would also support that duration extension of that. But overall, product hedge 2.5 years, total hedge about closer to 3, very comfortable with the performance of it served us well for many, many years. And as we look at that increase in income this next year into 2026, greater than 1 billion and continuing to grow as we go out to 2028 as well. So very happy with how it's performing. Thanks very much.

而我們並沒有從基礎數據中看到行為模式的改變，這些改變也支持延長持續時間。但總體而言，產品避險 2.5 年，總避險接近 3 年，我們對它的表現非常滿意，它已經為我們服務了很多很多年。展望未來，到 2026 年，營收將成長超過 10 億美元，並且到 2028 年還將繼續成長。我對它的表現非常滿意。非常感謝。

Thank you for all your questions today. I will now pass back to Paul to close.

感謝大家今天提出的所有問題。現在我將把結尾交給保羅。

Yeah. Thanks, Oliver, and thank you, everybody, for your questions. We appreciate both your time and the insightful questions on the call. So to wrap things up, we're very pleased with the performance in quarter three and the continuing momentum we've got in our three businesses. We've upgraded our income and returns guidance, and we continue to see opportunities, as I think we've conveyed today to continue to take market share and grow those businesses.

是的。謝謝奧利佛，也謝謝大家的提問。我們非常感謝您抽出時間參加電話會議，並提出了許多富有洞察力的問題。總而言之，我們對第三季的業績以及我們三大業務持續的發展勢頭都非常滿意。我們提高了收入和回報預期，正如我們今天所傳達的那樣，我們仍然看到機會，可以繼續擴大市場份額並發展這些業務。

We look forward to catching up with you at a couple of things. We've got the retail banking spotlight on November 25. And also, as I said earlier, we'll update you on our guidance for 2026 and share our new targets for 2028 at the full year in February. So I wish you all a good weekend. Thank you.

我們期待與您就幾件事進行交流。11月25日，我們將聚焦零售銀行業務。另外，正如我之前所說，我們將在2月份的全年報告中更新我們對2026年的指導意見，並分享我們2028年的新目標。祝大家週末愉快。謝謝。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

That concludes today's presentation. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的演講到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。