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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Match Group Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
歡迎參加Match Group 2023年第四季財報電話會議。 (操作說明)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。現在我將會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁Tanny Shelburne女士。請開始。
Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR
Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.
謝謝接線員,大家早安。今天的電話會議將由執行長伯納德·金和總裁兼財務長加里·斯威德勒主持。他們將作簡短致辭,之後我們將開放提問環節。
Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports with the SEC.
在會議開始之前,我需要提醒各位,我們可能會在本次電話會議中討論公司前景和未來業績。這些前瞻性陳述可能包含「我們預期」、「我們相信」、「我們預期」或類似表述。這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響,我們的實際業績可能與今天表達的觀點有重大差異。部分風險已在我們的獲利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)的定期報告中列出。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
那麼,我想把電話交給BK。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Tanny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. As I reflect on 2023, I am deeply proud of the accomplishments and progress that we made as a team. Just 1 year ago, we introduced an entirely new operating structure with several new leaders put in place across Tinder, Hinge, MG Asia and E&E, and it's been working.
謝謝,Tanny。大家早安,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。回顧2023年,我為我們團隊的成就和進步深感自豪。就在一年前,我們引進了全新的營運架構,並在Tinder、Hinge、MG Asia和E&E等公司任命了多位新的領導者,而這項架構目前運作良好。
Together, we deepened our focus on execution and innovation, helping lay the foundation for sustained longer-term growth. At the same time, we recaptured financial momentum, ending the year with strong revenue growth and our third consecutive quarter of record AOI.
我們共同深化了對執行和創新的關注,為長期永續成長奠定了基礎。同時,我們重拾了財務成長勢頭,以強勁的營收成長結束了這一年,並連續第三個季度創下AOI新高。
Before we dive into more detail regarding our ambitious plans and goals for this coming year, I wanted to take a moment to recognize Faye Iosotaluno as Tinder's new CEO, which we announced earlier this month. Faye has been an impactful leader at Match Group for several years, and most recently as COO of Tinder. Her intimate understanding of the online dating category as well as her deep expertise in strategy and business development, among many other skills, are just a few of the reasons why I believe Faye is best suited to lead Tinder in its next chapter of growth.
在我們深入探討來年雄心勃勃的計劃和目標之前,我想先花點時間揚一下費伊·伊奧索塔盧諾 (Faye Iosotaluno),她將擔任 Tinder 的新任首席執行官,我們已於本月初宣布了這一消息。費伊在 Match Group 擔任要職多年,是一位極具影響力的領導者,最近擔任 Tinder 的營運長。她對線上約會領域的深刻理解,以及她在策略和業務發展方面的豐富經驗,還有其他許多技能,這些都只是我認為費伊最適合帶領 Tinder 開啟下一個發展篇章的部分原因。
Faye is also supported by Tinder's strong management team, which we set in place last year, giving me the utmost confidence in their ability to execute together. The plans for Tinder reflect our shared vision, and I look forward to working with her and the team along this journey.
Faye也得到了Tinder強大的管理團隊的支持,這個團隊是我們去年組成的,這讓我對他們的執行能力充滿信心。 Tinder的未來規劃體現了我們共同的願景,我期待與她和團隊攜手共進。
Now taking a step back, at Match Group we come to work highly motivated every day to foster genuine human connections. But the tools and technologies that people use to connect, match and date today must evolve to meet modern expectations of today's daters.
現在讓我們退一步來看,在Match Group,我們每天都充滿熱情地投入工作,致力於促進人與人之間真誠的聯繫。但是,人們如今用來聯繫、配對和約會的工具和技術必須與時俱進,才能滿足現代約會者的期望。
And as Tinder once did a decade ago, it's imperative that we boldly innovate to create engaging, joyful and exciting experiences for users on our apps. There are certain things that are table stakes for us. We need to continue to foster online communities where women, and all underrepresented groups of people can show up as their true authentic selves, feel safe and be respected. But this new generation of singles is digital-first and expect platforms like ours to allow daters to showcase their unique personalities in an engaging setting and be shown highly curated matches. In 2024, our roadmaps are shaped with this in mind.
就像十年前的 Tinder 一樣,我們必須大膽創新,為使用者打造引人入勝、充滿樂趣且令人興奮的應用程式體驗。對我們而言,有些是基本要求。我們需要繼續培育線上社區,讓女性以及所有弱勢群體都能展現真實的自我,感到安全並受到尊重。但新一代單身人士是數位優先的,他們希望像我們這樣的平台能夠讓約會者在一個引人入勝的環境中展現獨特的個性,並獲得精心挑選的匹配對象。 2024 年,我們的發展路線圖正是基於此而製定的。
First, we are working to improve existing dating apps, beginning with our 2 largest brands, Tinder and Hinge. Leveraging AI, Tinder will focus on creating a more inclusive experience beginning with improving the Gen Z and women's experiences while solving for key user pain points across the dating journey.
首先,我們致力於改進現有的約會應用,先從旗下兩大品牌 Tinder 和 Hinge 開始。 Tinder 將利用人工智慧技術,專注於打造更具包容性的體驗,首先改善 Z 世代和女性用戶的體驗,同時解決用戶在約會過程中遇到的關鍵痛點。
At Tinder, Faye and her team are relentlessly focused on modernizing the existing experience. For example, take Tinder's effortless Swipe feature. In 2024, Tinder plans to build on the Swipe right and Swipe left mechanism by adding in more discovery gestures to better align with today's behaviors and expectations. Not only will users be able to like as they always have, but now they will be able to Swipe up to engage deeper in profiles and Swipe down for a revamped, new Explore experience.
在 Tinder,Faye 和她的團隊始終致力於提升現有用戶體驗。例如,Tinder 便捷的滑動功能。 2024 年,Tinder 計畫在左右滑動機制的基礎上,增加更多探索手勢,以更好地契合當今用戶的行為和期望。用戶不僅可以像以往一樣按讚,還可以向上滑動深入了解個人資料,向下滑動則可體驗煥然一新的「探索」功能。
Tinder is also working on several features that give women real and relevant experiences every time they come into the app. This will include increased trust and safety, more focused on the right primary photos and improved curation of recommendations. By continuously improving the product, building on what works while modernizing key features we'll produce an experience that aligns with what the next generations of daters are expecting. 2023 was a year of execution and increased product velocity for Tinder, which set a strong foundation.
Tinder 也正在開發多項功能,旨在為女性用戶每次打開應用程式時提供真實且相關的體驗。這些功能包括提升信任度和安全性、更加重視展示合適的頭像以及改進推薦內容。透過不斷改進產品,在現有優勢的基礎上進行創新,並對關鍵功能進行現代化改造,我們將打造符合新一代約會者期望的體驗。 2023 年是 Tinder 執行力提升和產品開發速度加快的一年,這為其未來發展奠定了堅實的基礎。
In 2024, Tinder is adopting a fast-fail mentality, a strategy that prioritizes rapid experimentation and testing. This approach is all about agility. If a new idea or feature doesn't yield the anticipated results, the team is prepared to quickly pivot, absorbing valuable insights and move forward. We recognize that not every innovation will be a groundbreaking success. However, it's this very willingness to embrace risk and learn from failures that fuels our growth. And when we do strike gold, it not only elevates our business, but it sets a new standard for our users, which we will continually enhance.
2024年,Tinder將採用「快速失敗」的策略,優先考慮快速實驗和測試。這種方法的核心在於敏捷性。如果新想法或功能未能達到預期效果,團隊會迅速調整方向,吸收寶貴經驗並繼續前進。我們深知並非每一項創新都能取得突破性成功。然而,正是這種勇於承擔風險並從失敗中學習的精神,推動著我們的發展。而當我們最終取得突破性進展時,這不僅會提升我們的業務,還會為用戶樹立新的標桿,我們將不斷完善這項標竿。
We look forward to sharing more over time, but I am confident that these changes will meaningfully transform Tinder in 2024 and beyond as it builds on its roots and shapes a product experience that redefines dating yet again.
我們期待在未來分享更多訊息,但我相信,隨著 Tinder 在其根基上不斷發展,並塑造出再次重新定義約會的產品體驗,這些變化將在 2024 年及以後對 Tinder 產生意義深遠的影響。
Similarly, Hinge is leveraging AI to further improve its powerful experience by reimagining meaningful connection. Hinge envisions a focused and intentioned experience that places guidance at the heart of a dater's journey.
同樣,Hinge 也利用人工智慧技術,透過重新構想有意義的聯繫,進一步提升其強大的使用者體驗。 Hinge 設想打造一種專注且目標明確的體驗,將指導置於約會者旅程的核心。
Hinge will aim to truly understand you and what you're looking for in order to introduce you to the right person sooner. This redesigned experience will utilize the vast treasure trove of insights on profiles, rich interactions and great dates that Hinge has collected over several years. Hinge will help users discover matches based on shared interests and highlight compatibility in addition to many other features with the ultimate goal of improving dating outcomes for its users. This work will begin in 2024, and I can't wait to share more as things progress.
Hinge 的目標是真正了解您以及您的需求,以便更快為您找到合適的人。這次重新設計的體驗將充分利用 Hinge 多年來累積的大量用戶資料、互動記錄和精彩約會案例。 Hinge 將幫助用戶根據共同興趣發現匹配對象,並突出顯示匹配度,此外還有許多其他功能,最終目標是提升用戶的約會體驗。這項工作將於 2024 年啟動,我迫不及待地想與大家分享更多進展。
In 2023, we established a central innovation team that has been making significant impact. In 2024 and beyond, the team will focus on launching disruptive new brands that will grow the category and bring in those who may not have previously tried a traditional dating app. Additionally, we're building internal technology capabilities in coordination with our central innovation teams to help improve our overall effectiveness as a company. While AI brings with it cost efficiencies and a potent optimization tool, we view it as far more than just that. AI has played an important strategic role at Match Group for years from trust and safety efforts to our matching algorithms, and I believe it will play an even larger role moving forward.
2023年,我們成立了中央創新團隊,該團隊已取得了顯著成效。 2024年及以後,團隊將專注於推出顛覆性的新品牌,以拓展整個產業,並吸引那些可能從未嘗試過傳統約會應用程式的用戶。此外,我們正與中央創新團隊合作,建構內部技術能力,以提升公司的整體效率。人工智慧雖然能夠帶來成本效益和強大的優化工具,但我們認為它的價值遠不止於此。多年來,人工智慧在Match Group的策略發展中扮演著重要的角色,從信任與安全保障到配對演算法,無不體現人工智慧的貢獻。我相信,未來人工智慧的角色將更加顯著。
AI enables us to bring groundbreaking improvements across a dater's journey. We expect it to touch every aspect of our apps by improving profile quality, discoverability and matching and even more importantly, creating an even safer environment for our users to connect in. The bets that we are making are bold, and large-scale changes like this do take time. However, we expect to make tangible progress through 2024 as we roll out AI-driven capabilities and feature enhancements within our existing apps, and as new AI-powered standalone apps begin testing in the marketplace.
人工智慧使我們能夠為用戶的約會體驗帶來突破性的改進。我們期望它能從各個方面提升我們應用程式的品質,包括提高個人資料品質、提升用戶發現度和匹配度,更重要的是,為用戶創造一個更安全的交友環境。我們正在進行的這些嘗試意義重大,而如此大規模的變革也需要時間。然而,隨著我們在現有應用程式中逐步推出人工智慧驅動的功能和特性增強,以及全新的人工智慧獨立應用程式開始在市場上進行測試,我們預計到2024年將取得實際進展。
I am confident that early indications of momentum at Tinder, particularly from Gen Z and women, will be evident in the second half of the year as a result of consistent brand narrative, modernizing product and an ecosystem that celebrates human connection and inclusivity. Ultimately, we recognize that our ability to deliver revenue growth and free cash flow is what gives us the freedom to pursue these ambitious roadmaps.
我相信,Tinder 目前的發展勢頭,尤其是在 Z 世代和女性用戶群中,將在下半年更加明顯。這得益於我們始終如一的品牌敘事、不斷現代化的產品以及一個崇尚人際連結和包容性的生態系統。歸根究底,我們深知,只有實現營收成長和自由現金流,才能讓我們有餘力去推動這些雄心勃勃的發展規劃。
As we push the boundaries of innovation, we will maintain financial discipline. We will grow revenues, maintain or enhance our margins and generate significant free cash flow, which will allow us to return capital to shareholders. 2024 is about both delivering on our short-term commitments and positioning our company for enduring long-term growth. We've always been at the forefront, adapting to technology shifts, and we'll continue to lead this wave of change. At the heart of our endeavors is an unwavering dedication to delivering products and services that delight our customers.
在不斷突破創新邊界的同時,我們將保持財務紀律。我們將實現營收成長,維持或提升利潤率,並創造可觀的自由現金流,從而為股東帶來回報。 2024年,我們既要履行短期承諾,也要為公司的長期永續發展奠定基礎。我們始終走在技術變革的前沿,並將繼續引領這股變革浪潮。我們一切努力的核心,是始終如一地致力於提供令客戶滿意的產品和服務。
And with that, I will turn it over to Gary.
接下來,我將把麥克風交給蓋瑞。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Thanks, BK, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. Our business demonstrated strong financial performance again this quarter.
謝謝BK,大家好。感謝各位今天上午的參與。本季我們公司的財務表現再次表現強勁。
Tinder once again delivered double-digit year-over-year Direct Revenue growth as did the company as a whole. We achieved record quarterly AOI for the third consecutive quarter and record OI for the second consecutive quarter, further evaluating the steps we've taken to strengthen the business.
Tinder 和公司整體一樣,再次實現了兩位數的年成長。我們連續第三個季度創下季度平均營業收入 (AOI) 紀錄,並連續第二季創下營業營業額 (OI) 紀錄,這進一步驗證了我們為加強業務而採取的各項措施的有效性。
Match Group's Total Revenue for Q4 was $866 million, up 10% year-over-year, an acceleration from 9% year-over-year in Q3. For the full year, Match Group delivered Total Revenue of $3.4 billion, up 6% year-over-year with AOI of $1.3 billion, representing margin of 37%. Excluding the $40 million we received as part of the Google settlement, full year AOI margins would have been up 80 basis points compared to 2022, meeting our goal of flat or better year-over-year AOI margin.
Match Group第四季總營收為8.66億美元,年增10%,較第三季的9%增速加快。全年來看,Match Group總營收達34億美元,年增6%,營業利益為13億美元,利潤率為37%。若不計入我們因與Google達成和解而獲得的4,000萬美元,全年營業利潤率將比2022年提高80個基點,達到我們實現營業利潤率持平或更高的目標。
Q4 Tinder Direct Revenue was up 11% year-over-year at $493 million. Tinder RPP was up 21% year-over-year at $16.49 due to the effects of the U.S. price optimizations and weekly packages we rolled out earlier in 2023. We did see a continued pressure on users at Tinder, both in the U.S. and globally, during the November and December holiday months, resulting in a mid-single-digit year-over-year decline in new user registrations and reactivations in Q4. Q4 Tinder Payers declined 8% year-over-year to 10 million, slightly below our expectations. For the year, Tinder delivered Direct Revenue of $1.9 billion, up 7% year-over-year with AOI margins in excess of 50%.
第四季 Tinder 直接營收年增 11%,達到 4.93 億美元。由於 2023 年初推出的美國價格優化和周套餐計劃,Tinder 平均每筆交易費用 (RPP) 同比增長 21%,達到 16.49 美元。在 11 月和 12 月的假期期間,我們看到 Tinder 用戶(無論是在美國還是全球)持續面臨壓力,導致第四季度新用戶註冊量和重新激活量同比下降了中等個位數。第四季 Tinder 付費用戶數量年減 8% 至 1,000 萬,略低於我們的預期。全年來看,Tinder 直接收入為 19 億美元,年增 7%,平均營業收入 (AOI) 利潤率超過 50%。
Our Hinge brand continued to perform very well. Hinge Direct Revenue growth accelerated to 50% year-over-year, a further 6-point acceleration over Q3. Hinge Q4 Payers were up 33% year-over-year to 1.4 million, while RPP of over $28 was up 13% year-over-year in Q4.
我們的 Hinge 品牌持續保持強勁表現。 Hinge 直接營收年增 50%,較第三季進一步提升 6 個百分點。 Hinge 第四季付費用戶年增 33% 至 140 萬,而每筆超過 28 美元的付費用戶則較去年同期成長 13%。
For the full year, Hinge delivered Direct Revenue of $396 million, just shy of our $400 million target primarily due to slower top-of-funnel growth in Q4 than we were anticipating. Historically, Hinge has not seen a seasonal slowdown during Q4 like many brands see. This Q4, for the first time, Hinge did see that seasonal slowdown. That said, Hinge has had a very strong start to 2024 in terms of top of funnel in every market and among virtually every age and gender cohort. So there's been a clear bounce back.
全年來看,Hinge的直接收入為3.96億美元,略低於我們4億美元的目標,主要原因是第四季漏斗頂端成長速度低於預期。以往,Hinge在第四季並沒有像許多品牌那樣出現季節性放緩。但今年第四季度,Hinge首次出現了這種季節性放緩。儘管如此,Hinge在2024年開始,在所有市場以及幾乎所有年齡層和性別群體中,漏斗頂端的成長都非常強勁。因此,已經出現了明顯的反彈。
Match Group Q4 AOI was $362 million, up 27% year-over-year, including $40 million that was returned to us as part of the Google litigation settlement for margins of 42%. Excluding the $40 million, AOI would have been up 13% year-over-year, and margins would have been 37%. Operating income was $260 million in Q4 for a margin of 30%, 25% after adjusting out the impact of the Google settlement. Q4 2022 included an impairment of intangibles of approximately $100 million, and OI margin would have improved 3.5 points if not for the impairment in 2022.
Match Group第四季平均營業收入(AOI)為3.62億美元,年增27%,其中包括根據Google訴訟和解協議返還的4,000萬美元,利潤率為42%。若不計入這4000萬美元,平均營業收入將年增13%,利潤率為37%。第四季營業收入為2.6億美元,利潤率為30%,剔除Google和解協議的影響後為25%。 2022年第四季提列了約1億美元的無形資產減值,若不計入該減值,2022年的營業收入利潤率將提高3.5個百分點。
Overall expenses, including SBC expense, were down 11% year-over-year in Q4, down 5% excluding the Google settlement. Excluding the settlement, cost of revenue, including SBC expense, grew 5% year-over-year in Q4 and represented 29% of Total Revenue, down 1 point year-over-year. Excluding the settlement, App Store fees increased $17 million year-over-year, 20 basis points as a percent of Total Revenue in the fourth quarter. Selling and marketing costs, including SBC expense, increased $32 million or 25% year-over-year in Q4 primarily due to increased spend at Tinder. Selling and marketing spend was up 2 points as a percentage of Total Revenue at 18%.
第四季總支出(包括SBC支出)年減11%,若不計入與Google的和解協議,則下降5%。若不計入和解協議,第四季營收成本(包括SBC支出)較去年同期成長5%,佔總營收的29%,年減1個百分點。若不計入和解協議,App Store費用年增1,700萬美元,佔第四季總營收的20個基點。第四季銷售和行銷成本(包括SBC支出)年增3,200萬美元,增幅達25%,主要原因是Tinder的支出增加。銷售和行銷支出佔總收入的比例上升2個百分點,達到18%。
G&A costs, including SBC expense, declined 2% year-over-year in Q4 and 2 points as a percent of revenue to 12% as legal and professional fees declined by $11 million year-over-year. Product development costs, including SBC expense, grew 21% year-over-year in Q4 primarily as a result of higher compensation expense due to increased headcount at Hinge and Tinder and were up 1 point as a percent of Total Revenue at 11%.
第四季度,包括SBC費用在內的管理費用較去年同期下降2%,佔營收的比例下降2個百分點至12%,主要原因是法律和專業費用較去年同期減少了1,100萬美元。第四季度,包括SBC費用在內的產品開發成本年增21%,主要原因是Hinge和Tinder員工人數增加導致薪資支出上升,佔總收入的比例上升1個百分點至11%。
For Q1 '24, we expect Total Revenue for Match Group of $850 million to $860 million, up 8% to 9% year-over-year. We expect FX to be a 2-point year-over-year headwind in Q1. At Tinder, we expect Direct Revenue to be $480 million to $485 million, up 9% to 10% year-over-year in Q1. Again, we expect FX to be a 2-point year-over-year headwind. We expect RPP and Payer year-over-year trends to be broadly in line with what we saw in Q4 with Q1 demonstrating less than half the sequential decline in number of Payers than we saw in Q4.
我們預計2024年第一季Match Group的總營收為8.5億美元至8.6億美元,年增8%至9%。我們預期匯率波動將對第一季同比業績造成2個百分點的負面影響。對於Tinder,我們預計第一季的直接收入為4.8億美元至4.85億美元,年增9%至10%。同樣,我們預期匯率波動將對第一季同比業績造成2個百分點的負面影響。我們預期RPP(每用戶付費用戶)和付費用戶數量的年比趨勢將與第四季度基本一致,第一季付費用戶數量的環比降幅將小於第四季的一半。
Across our other brands, we expect Direct Revenue of $355 million to $360 million, up 7% to 8% year-over-year. Within our other brands, we expect Hinge to deliver approximately $120 million of Direct Revenue in Q1, year-over-year growth of approximately 45%. We believe that macroeconomic conditions and consumers' willingness to spend has remained relatively stable since our last earnings call. We have not seen any additional impact on our subscription or ALC revenue.
我們預計旗下其他品牌的直接收入將達到 3.55 億美元至 3.6 億美元,年增 7% 至 8%。其中,我們預計 Hinge 第一季的直接營收約為 1.2 億美元,年成長約 45%。我們認為,自上次財報電話會議以來,宏觀經濟狀況和消費者的支出意願保持相對穩定。我們尚未看到訂閱收入或年度訂閱收入受到任何額外影響。
We expect Match Group AOI of $270 million to $275 million in Q1, representing year-over-year growth of 6% and margin of 32% at the midpoints of the ranges. We expect overall Q1 marketing spend to increase by approximately $30 million year-over-year collectively at Tinder and at Hinge compared to the levels these brands were spending at in early '23 as we seek to reinvigorate user growth at Tinder and continue the stellar user growth at Hinge in both core and European expansion markets during our peak season in the first quarter.
我們預期Match集團第一季平均營業收入(AOI)為2.7億美元至2.75億美元,年增6%,利潤率為32%(取區間中位數)。我們預計,與2023年初相比,Tinder和Hinge兩大品牌第一季的整體行銷支出將年增約3,000萬美元。此舉旨在重振Tinder的用戶成長,並在第一季旺季期間,持續維持Hinge在核心市場和歐洲擴張市場的強勁用戶成長動能。
That said, we continue to monitor closely for marketing efficacy and can pull back if we don't see the desired results. We entered 2024 with solid revenue momentum and believe we're positioned to deliver Total Revenue of between $3.565 billion and $3.665 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 6% to 9%. At Tinder, we expect Direct Revenue of $2.025 billion to $2.075 billion or growth of 6% to 8% year-over-year. We believe this revenue target for Tinder provides the new leadership with sufficient room to focus on ecosystem improvements, product improvements and user growth initiatives to drive sustainable long-term growth.
儘管如此,我們仍將密切關注行銷效果,如果未達到預期目標,我們將及時調整策略。 2024 年伊始,我們便保持著強勁的營收成長勢頭,並相信我們能夠實現 35.65 億美元至 36.65 億美元的總營收,同比增長 6% 至 9%。其中,Tinder 的直接營收預計為 20.25 億美元至 20.75 億美元,年增 6% 至 8%。我們相信,Tinder 的這項營收目標將為新領導團隊提供充足的空間,使其能夠專注於生態系統優化、產品改進和用戶成長計劃,從而推動可持續的長期成長。
Our outlook assumes modest improvement in Tinder user trends over the course of 2024 but not yet a return to year-over-year user growth. We expect Payer growth to improve through the year, achieving positive sequential Payer net adds in Q3 and positive year-over-year Payer growth by Q4. Across our other brands, we expect Direct Revenue to be $1.480 billion to $1.530 billion or 6% to 10% year-over-year growth. Within our other brands, at Hinge, we expect Direct Revenue of $535 million to $545 million, which represents growth of 35% to 38% year-over-year with a continued focus on driving share gains in Hinge's core and European markets.
我們預計 Tinder 用戶趨勢在 2024 年將略有改善,但尚未恢復到年成長水準。我們預期付費用戶成長將在年內逐步改善,第三季實現付費用戶淨增,並在第四季實現年增。我們預計旗下其他品牌的直接收入將達到 14.8 億美元至 15.3 億美元,年增 6% 至 10%。在旗下其他品牌中,Hinge 的直接收入預計為 5.35 億美元至 5.45 億美元,年增 35% 至 38%,我們將繼續專注於提升 Hinge 核心市場和歐洲市場的份額。
We've assumed FX to be a 1.5-point headwind to full year '24 Total Revenue growth. We expect 2024 in Indirect Revenue of approximately $60 million, up approximately 8% year-over-year.
我們假設匯率波動將對2024年全年總營收成長造成1.5個百分點的不利影響。我們預計2024年間接收入約6,000萬美元,年增約8%。
For 2024, our current anticipation is for AOI margins to be at least 36%. Our margin will largely depend on the various brands' levels of revenue growth and how we calibrate certain investments that are critical to achieve our organic growth plans.
我們目前預計2024年AOI利潤率至少達到36%。我們的利潤率將主要取決於各個品牌的收入成長水平,以及我們如何調整對實現有機成長計畫至關重要的某些投資。
There are several key investment areas that are impacting margins that we'd like to call out. The first is at Tinder in both product innovation and marketing. As we reinvent the Tinder experience, we're putting substantial incremental resources into product to improve the experience and cater better to women and Gen and in marketing to build a better brand narrative and higher awareness of the new and improved experience. For 2024, we estimate $30 million to $40 million in incremental Tinder expense from increased product innovation and marketing spend in '24 compared to '23.
我們想重點介紹幾個影響利潤率的關鍵投資領域。首先是Tinder在產品創新和行銷上的投入。隨著我們對Tinder體驗的重塑,我們正投入大量額外資源用於產品開發,以改善用戶體驗,更好地滿足女性和年輕一代的需求;同時,我們也在市場營銷方面投入大量資源,以打造更佳的品牌形象,並提高用戶對全新升級體驗的認知度。我們預計,2024年Tinder在產品創新和行銷方面的支出將比2023年增加3,000萬至4,000萬美元。
The second is AI-related investments in key brands and the development of new AI-centric products as we believe AI can help improve our users' experience and bring resistors into the category as well as potentially expand our TAM. We have a long list of product features being rolled out at Tinder and Hinge as well as plans to test new and different products that leverage AI throughout 2024. Our current expectation is for incremental 2024 AI-related spend of $20 million to $30 million across Match Group.
第二項投資是針對重點品牌的AI相關投資,以及開發以AI為中心的新產品。我們相信AI能夠幫助提升用戶體驗,吸引更多用戶加入,並有可能擴大我們的潛在市場規模。 Tinder和Hinge正在推出一系列產品功能,我們也計劃在2024年測試更多利用AI技術的新產品。我們目前預計,Match Group在2024年AI相關領域的支出將新增2,000萬至3,000萬美元。
And finally, investment in Hinge. We're confident that Hinge can be a $1 billion top line business, and it has an ambitious plan over the next few years to build off its well-regarded product and the traction it has achieved in all markets entered.
最後,我們來談談對Hinge的投資。我們相信Hinge能夠成為一家年營收達10億美元的公司,並且它制定了一項雄心勃勃的未來幾年計劃,旨在鞏固其備受好評的產品以及在所有已進入市場取得的良好勢頭。
While we anticipate significant operating leverage in this business long term, during this hyper-growth phase, we're managing the business to roughly flat AOI margins in 2024. To ensure we're continuing to invest in the product innovation, expansion markets and brand to help us realize Hinge's full potential. In dollar terms, that means that $40 million to $50 million incrementally is going into Hinge's product and marketing in 2024 compared to 2023.
儘管我們預期該業務長期來看將實現顯著的營運槓桿效應,但在目前的高速成長階段,我們將業務管理目標設定為2024年AOI利潤率大致持平。這是為了確保我們能夠持續投資於產品創新、市場拓展和品牌建設,從而幫助我們充分發揮Hinge的潛力。具體而言,這意味著與2023年相比,2024年我們將額外投入4000萬至5000萬美元用於Hinge的產品和行銷。
All 3 of these investment areas are elective and can be calibrated as this year proceeds. Because of the cost reduction actions and natural operating leverage of our business, we're able to target margins of at least 36% while reinvesting roughly $100 million into the 3 key investment areas, which we expect to not only help us deliver growth this year but position us for long-term success. Specifically to: one, achieve sustained user, Payer and revenue growth at Tinder; two, to capitalize on Hinge's full potential; and three, to ensure that we're the ones who introduce the next great innovation in the business of connecting people.
這三個投資領域均為可選,可根據今年的實際情況進行調整。由於成本削減措施和我們業務的天然營運槓桿,我們能夠在將約1億美元再投資於這三個關鍵投資領域的同時,實現至少36%的利潤率目標。我們預計,這些投資不僅有助於我們今年實現成長,還能為我們未來的長期成功奠定基礎。具體而言,這三個領域將:一是實現Tinder用戶、付費用戶和收入的持續成長;二是充分發揮Hinge的潛力;三是確保我們能夠引領人際連結領域的下一個重大創新。
Importantly, we expect to begin to see tangible results from this investment this year, not necessarily full payback on a dollar basis. But as BK outlined, we expect to see a better product experience at Tinder, including improved satisfaction among women and Gen Z, and Hinge making progress on delivering its revenue goals and expanding market share. We also expect to see AI-driven features in our core brands as well as in new experiences. We're positioned to make these investments and move our business strategically forward while holding our already attractive margins approximately flat year-over-year.
重要的是,我們預計今年就能看到這項投資的實際成效,雖然不一定能完全收回投資金額。但如BK所概述的,我們預期Tinder的產品體驗將會提升,包括提高女性用戶和Z世代用戶的滿意度;同時,Hinge在實現營收目標和擴大市場份額方面也將取得進展。此外,我們也預期核心品牌和全新體驗中將出現人工智慧驅動的功能。我們有能力進行這些投資,並推動業務策略性發展,同時保持我們原本就頗具吸引力的利潤率與上年基本持平。
As some of you may know, Apple recently announced changes to their App Store fee policies in response to the upcoming implementation of the Digital Markets Act in the European Union on March 6. We continue to analyze these changes, and our preliminary estimate is an approximately $20 million annualized benefit. However, Apple's new policies are merely a proposal and could change materially over time. We expect any savings that we achieved from Apple's changes will help us meet or exceed our margin objective for the year.
正如各位可能已經了解的,蘋果公司近期宣布調整其 App Store 的費用政策,以應對歐盟將於 3 月 6 日實施的《數位市場法案》。我們正在持續分析這些調整,初步估計每年可節省約 2,000 萬美元。然而,蘋果的新政策目前僅為提案,未來可能會發生重大變化。我們預計,蘋果此次調整帶來的任何成本節約都將有助於我們達到或超過年度利潤目標。
Given the March implementation date, we don't anticipate significant Q1 impact. Our $20 million annualized estimate does not include the benefit from use of alternative app stores or payment processors nor have we included any benefits from policy changes in geographies outside the EU, which would be substantial for us. We have said before that the DMA was likely to lead to changes to App Store policies in the EU and likely globally. We have seen the first brick fall in this regard, and we expect more to come. This is in addition to the recent decision by the U.S. Supreme Court in the Epic versus Apple case and Epic's win versus Google in its antitrust case.
鑑於新規將於三月實施,我們預計第一季不會受到顯著影響。我們先前預估的2,000萬美元年度收益並未計入使用其他應用程式商店或支付處理商帶來的收益,也未計入歐盟以外地區政策變化帶來的收益,而這些收益對我們而言意義重大。我們先前曾表示,DMA(直接市場進入)很可能導致歐盟乃至全球App Store政策的改變。目前我們已經看到了這方面的第一個跡象,並預計未來會有更多變化出現。此外,美國最高法院近期就Epic Games訴蘋果公司一案所作出的裁決,以及Epic Games在反壟斷訴訟中勝訴谷歌,也都對新規產生了影響。
We have not included any further benefits from App Store changes in our outlook at this time as we want to watch how all of this continues to evolve, though we would point out that the $650 million we paid to App Stores in 2023 provides ample room for reduction.
目前,我們尚未將 App Store 的變化帶來的任何進一步收益納入我們的展望,因為我們希望觀察這一切將如何繼續發展,不過我們想指出的是,我們在 2023 年向 App Store 支付的 6.5 億美元為減少支出提供了充足的空間。
We're pleased by the financial results we achieved in the back half of '23 in terms of both revenue growth and profitability. We have plans in place to deliver solid '24 financial performance while enabling marketing and product initiatives to lead to improved user growth and position the business for sustained long-term growth.
我們對2023年下半年所取得的財務表現感到滿意,無論是在收入成長或獲利能力方面。我們已製定計劃,力爭在2024年實現穩健的財務業績,同時推進市場營銷和產品舉措,以促進用戶增長,並為業務的長期持續增長奠定基礎。
We continue to believe that Match Group provides a rare combination of revenue growth, stellar profitability and substantial free cash flow generation. We have plans in place to supplement our shareholders' return with significant return of capital via share repurchases or potentially other means. We believe few, if any, companies in our space offer this combination of attributes to shareholders.
我們仍然堅信,Match Group在營收成長、卓越獲利能力和充裕的自由現金流方面擁有難得的優勢。我們已製定計劃,透過股票回購或其他方式,向股東返還大量資本,從而提升股東回報。我們相信,在我們所處的產業中,鮮有公司能夠像Match Group一樣,為股東提供如此全面的回報。
With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
這樣,我就可以請接線生開通提問專線了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Shweta Khajuria from Evercore ISI.
(操作員說明)今天的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。
Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst
Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst
BK, anything you can comment on Elliott's stake in the company and your conversations with them thus far?
BK,你能否就Elliott在該公司的股份以及你迄今為止與他們的溝通發表一些評論?
And then my follow-up is for Gary. Gary, could you please provide more color on your level of confidence in Tinder net adds turning positive in third quarter and a positive year-over-year Payer growth in the fourth quarter?
接下來我要問Gary一個問題。 Gary,你能否詳細說明一下你對Tinder第三季淨新增用戶數轉正以及第四季度付費用戶數同比增長的信心程度?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Great. Thanks, Shweta, for the first question. We've had collaborative dialogue with Elliott over the past few weeks ever since we learned about their stake in the company. We are looking forward to continuing to engage with all of our shareholders, including Elliott.
好的。謝謝Shweta提出的第一個問題。自從我們得知Elliott持有公司股份以來,過去幾週我們一直與他們保持著密切的溝通。我們期待繼續與包括Elliott在內的所有股東保持溝通。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
And then, Shweta, on your questions around Tinder net adds, I think as we said in the letter and in our remarks, we have high confidence that we're going to see sequential improvement in Tinder by Q3 on the net add side and that we will get some modest Payer growth year-over-year by Q4. And that's a combination of a few things, most notably the product and marketing initiatives we have that are -- that have been put in place through the course of '23 and into '24, which we think will drive the level of growth we need to achieve those goals of sequential net adds in Q3 and then Payer growth year-over-year in Q4.
Shweta,關於你提出的Tinder淨新增用戶的問題,正如我們在信中和發言中所說,我們非常有信心Tinder的淨新增用戶數量將在第三季度實現環比增長,並且第四季度付費用戶數量將實現適度的同比增長。這得益於多方面因素,其中最重要的是我們在2023年和2024年期間實施的產品和行銷措施。我們認為這些舉措將推動我們實現所需的成長,從而在第三季度實現淨新增用戶數量的環比增長,並在第四季度實現付費用戶數量的同比增長。
And it's a series of things, not just one specific thing that we're relying on or expecting to drive that. It's a series of improvements and initiatives that Tinder has in the plans. And so we think that will culminate in achieving the goals around Payer net adds by the middle of this year.
而且,這並非僅僅依靠某一項具體措施,而是一系列因素共同作用的結果。 Tinder 正在計劃一系列改進措施和措施。因此,我們認為這些措施最終將在今年年中實現付費用戶淨成長的目標。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.
下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的勞倫·申克。
Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst
Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst
Just looking back on 2023, what do you believe caused Tinder user growth to be negative despite the incremental marketing spend? And how will the marketing message evolve in 2024, if at all? And then just one on the 1Q EBITDA guide. It was about $25 million below the Street. Is that just the incremental marketing push you've been speaking about? Or are there other drivers there that we should take into account? And how should we think about the cadence of Tinder marketing spend through '24?
回顧2023年,您認為是什麼原因導致Tinder用戶成長為負,儘管行銷投入增加? 2024年的行銷策略會如何調整?如果有調整,又會如何調整?另外,關於第一季EBITDA預期,實際值比市場預期低了約2,500萬美元。這只是您之前提到的行銷投入增加所致嗎?還是還有其他因素要考慮?我們該如何規劃Tinder在2024年的行銷投入節奏?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Yes. So I think it's important to understand what went on in '23 so that you can understand kind of the trajectory of the business. We put in place a new brand narrative to Tinder, something that we hadn't focused on for a long time. We finally did that in 2023. And when you try to put in place a brand narrative and start to tell that story, it takes time to build. And so it doesn't translate into user growth immediately.
是的。所以我認為了解2023年發生的事情很重要,這樣才能大致了解公司的發展軌跡。我們為Tinder打造了一個全新的品牌故事,這是我們之前長期忽略的。我們最終在2023年完成了這項工作。而當你嘗試建立品牌故事並開始講述它時,這需要時間來慢慢建立。因此,它不會立即轉化為用戶成長。
And in fact, what we saw in '23 was pretty good progress on the user growth side in the first half of the year, as a result in part of the marketing initiatives. I think we hadn't been in the market very effectively on the market side in a while. And so we did see some really good user growth improvement from, let's call it, February of last year until the middle of the year.
事實上,2023年上半年,我們在用戶成長方面取得了相當不錯的進展,這部分歸功於我們的行銷舉措。我認為,先前我們在行銷方面已經很久沒有發揮出應有的效力了。因此,從去年2月到年中,我們的用戶成長確實有了顯著提升。
And then in the second half of the year, the trends kind of reverted to where they had been, down kind of mid-single digits on the user side year-over-year. And while we saw that step back, we did continue to see movement in some key metrics that we focus on for the brand campaign, brand consideration and improvement in consideration, particularly younger women. And so we were satisfied that the brand campaign was doing what we expected it to do over the course of 2023. The campaign has been very resonant with the target demographic, and it's been very well awarded by some of the ad publications.
下半年,用戶成長趨勢有所回落,年減了個位數左右。雖然用戶數量有所回落,但我們仍然看到一些關鍵指標有所改善,這些指標是我們關注的品牌推廣活動的關鍵指標,例如品牌認知度和認知度提升,尤其是在年輕女性群體中。因此,我們對2023年品牌推廣活動達到預期目標感到滿意。該活動與目標受眾產生了強烈的共鳴,並獲得了部分廣告刊物的高度評價。
And so we're continuing to invest in that marketing campaign. We're continuing to do it in the key global markets. And we're trying to have an always-on philosophy so there's not gaps in the marketing. And that's what we've budgeted for, for this year. I would just point out though that marketing can only do so much. Tinder, like many of our brands, is a product-driven company. And so while marketing can help on the user growth side, the user growth really needs to be driven by product and product innovation. And marketing needs to be aligned with product to drive people back to the app or to reconsider the app or consider it for the first time once product has really innovated and improved.
因此,我們將持續增加對行銷活動的投入,並在全球主要市場持續進行行銷活動。我們力求維持行銷的持續性,確保行銷工作不會出現任何中斷。這也是我們今年的預算重點。不過,我想指出的是,行銷的作用終究有限。 Tinder 和我們旗下的許多其他品牌一樣,都是一家產品驅動型公司。因此,雖然行銷有助於用戶成長,但用戶成長的真正驅動力在於產品本身及其創新。行銷必須與產品保持一致,才能在產品真正創新和改進之後,吸引用戶回歸應用、重新考慮使用應用,或首次嘗試使用。
So that is part of the plan for 2024. We are spending pretty heavily in Q1 on the marketing side, as you pointed out, because we do want to drive users back to the app after the refresh. And so that is part of the plan for the first quarter. I do think that people maybe didn't quite understand the magnitude of what we are planning to spend in the first quarter on Tinder marketing. I do think that accounts for maybe the gap in expectations versus what sell-side analysts had for the quarter.
所以,這是我們2024年計畫的一部分。正如您所指出的,我們在第一季將在行銷方面投入巨資,因為我們希望在改版後能吸引用戶回歸應用程式。這也是我們第一季計畫的一部分。我認為大家可能不太了解我們計劃在第一季投入Tinder行銷的規模。這或許可以解釋為什麼實際預期與賣方分析師對該季度的預測存在差距。
And so that -- and that plus a little bit of user softness that we saw in Q4, which leads to revenue softness and therefore, AOI softness as well are probably the 2 factors. We are planning to continue to spend heavily in the first quarter. I would say after that, the marketing cadence is probably pretty evenly spread throughout the rest of the year. But as we say, we're nimble on the marketing side. And to the extent we don't see the expected user growth trends or effectiveness of the marketing campaign, we can adjust and pull back.
因此,再加上我們在第四季看到的用戶疲軟,導致營收疲軟,進而影響了平均目標用戶數(AOI),這大概是造成目前市場疲軟的兩個主要因素。我們計劃在第一季繼續加大投入。之後,我認為行銷節奏會在今年剩餘時間內保持較為均衡。但正如我們所說,我們在行銷方面非常靈活。如果用戶成長趨勢或行銷活動的效果未達到預期,我們會及時調整策略並減少投入。
And so we're pushing hard in the first quarter at Tinder and frankly, at Hinge as well. And then we'll sort of recalibrate and see. But right now, I'd say it's spread pretty evenly the rest of the way.
所以,我們在第一季會全力推進 Tinder 的發展,坦白說,Hinge 也是如此。之後我們會做一些調整,看看情況如何。但就目前而言,我認為各項投入在其他方面分佈得相當均衡。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Chris Kuntarich with UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·昆塔里奇。
Christopher Louis Kuntarich - Analyst
Christopher Louis Kuntarich - Analyst
Can you just talk a little bit more about what those early learnings have been around the Tinder product refresh and how that is really tying into the marketing spend for Tinder that you're talking about this year?
您能否再詳細談談 Tinder 產品更新的早期經驗,以及這些經驗與您今年提到的 Tinder 行銷支出有何關聯?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
I'll take that one. Great question, Chris. The refresh in December was our first step in the product modernization that we're undergoing as a team. It's been less than 2 months since the refresh went live, and we're already seeing encouraging signs. For example, over 80% of our daily users are currently using dark mode.
我來回答這個問題。克里斯,問得好。去年十二月的更新是我們團隊正在進行的產品現代化的第一步。更新上線不到兩個月,我們已經看到了令人鼓舞的跡象。例如,目前超過 80% 的每日活躍用戶都在使用深色模式。
And as for prompts and quizzes, we're excited about the early adoption rates. Quizzes are already seeing a 15% adoption rate, and prompts are not that far behind. This is a strong indicator of user engagement, especially considering how recently these features were introduced.
至於提示和測驗,我們對目前的早期採用率感到非常興奮。測驗的採用率已經達到 15%,提示的採用率也緊跟著。考慮到這些功能推出時間不長,這有力地表明了用戶參與度很高。
I'd like to add that it's important for us to remember that these features are optional. So not all users will adopt them, but their presence offers more ways for users to engage. Our approach last fall testing numerous features independently before combining them into a broader refresh has created tremendous learning across Tinder. These tests have taught us quickly to identify what works and what doesn't work, informing our fail-fast strategy for 2024.
我想補充一點,我們必須記住這些功能是可選的。因此,並非所有用戶都會使用它們,但它們的存在為用戶提供了更多互動方式。去年秋季,我們在將眾多功能整合到一次全面的更新之前,先分別進行了測試,這一做法為 Tinder 積累了豐富的經驗。這些測試讓我們迅速了解哪些功能有效,哪些無效,從而為我們 2024 年的快速迭代策略提供了基礎。
And as Gary mentioned, we are leaning in on our marketing strategy, However, it's crucial to leverage marketing to spotlight new product features. Therefore, we might adjust our spend levels to align with the rollout of these new features throughout the year.
正如Gary所提到的,我們正在加大行銷力度。然而,利用行銷手段突顯新產品功能至關重要。因此,我們可能會調整支出水平,以配合這些新功能在年內的陸續推出。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc.
下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Justin Patterson。
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Great. Could you elaborate a little bit more about the Hinge slowdown that occurred during December and what drove the reacceleration? I know you talked about that we haven't really seen seasonality in Hinge before. So I'm curious how that seasonality compares to what you've seen towards some of your more mature apps in there?
好的。您能否詳細說說Hinge在12月的下滑情況,以及是什麼原因導致了之後的成長加速?我知道您之前提到Hinge的成長並沒有明顯的季節性波動。所以我很好奇,這種季節性波動與您之前觀察到的一些更成熟的應用程式的成長情況有何不同?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Let me take that, Justin. So we do see seasonality in most of our apps, especially the larger ones, in the period in kind of November and December. That's typical. We see it at Tinder. We see it at other brands because users in many parts of the world tend to focus on the holiday season, and they pull back from their dating activities in that period.
當然。讓我來回答,賈斯汀。我們的大多數應用,尤其是規模較大的應用,在11月和12月這段時間確實存在季節性波動。這很常見。我們在Tinder上就看到了這種情況。其他品牌也一樣,因為世界許多地區的用戶在假期期間往往會把重心放在節日上,減少約會活動。
And then what we tend to see is right after Christmas through Valentine's Day, we actually see a very strong period. That's our peak season from right after Christmas to Valentine's Day when people start looking for love. And so that's kind of the cadence that we typically see in the business.
我們通常會看到,從聖誕節到情人節這段時間,銷售業績會非常強勁。這段時間是我們的旺季,因為人們開始尋找愛情。這就是我們這個行業通常的銷售節奏。
We haven't seen that historically at Hinge, but I think now that the business has achieved some reasonable level of scale in some of the core markets like the U.S., we are starting to see that seasonality like we do at Tinder and other brands. And so I'm expecting that we'll see that going forward. But 2023 was the first time that we've seen that.
Hinge 歷史上從未出現過這種情況,但我認為現在隨著公司在美國等一些核心市場達到一定的規模,我們開始看到類似 Tinder 和其他品牌那樣的季節性波動。所以我預計未來還會出現這種情況。不過,2023 年是我們第一次看到這種情況。
The good news is that, that is in the rearview mirror for us at this point. Hinge got off to a very strong start in January, kind of picked off -- picked up where it had left off before the holiday period.
好消息是,對我們來說,那段日子已經過去了。 Hinge在1月開局非常強勁,可以說是延續了假期前的良好勢頭。
We've seen really good strength in all the geographies where it operates across all gender and age cohorts. And so we're very pleased with what's happened thus far in January. And that's very encouraging because when a brand gets off to a strong start in the peak season, it tends to bode well for its performance for the rest of the year. And so we're happy to see that, and we're looking forward to Hinge performing well in 2024.
我們在所有營運地區,無論性別或年齡段,都看到了非常強勁的成長勢頭。因此,我們對一月份迄今為止的表現非常滿意。這令人鼓舞,因為品牌在旺季開局強勁通常預示著其全年業績良好。所以我們很高興看到這一點,並期待Hinge在2024年取得佳績。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Zach Morrissey with Wolfe Research.
下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Zach Morrissey。
Zach Morrissey - Equity Analyst
Zach Morrissey - Equity Analyst
Great. I appreciate the color on the Tinder's kind of product roadmap for this year that you had in the letter. And I wanted to kind of focus more on this à la carte opportunity that you stated. So can you share any kind of preliminary details on the kind of new à la carte offering products that you have planned for the second half of this year? I mean how that may differ versus kind of what is currently offered in the app. And then do you see this more as a payer penetration or monetization driver for this year?
太好了。我很欣賞您在信中對 Tinder 今年產品路線圖的詳細介紹。我想重點談談您提到的按需付費服務。您能否透露一些關於今年下半年計畫推出的按需付費服務的初步細節?我的意思是,這些服務與目前應用程式內提供的服務有何不同?您認為這主要會是今年提升付費用戶滲透率還是實現獲利的關鍵因素?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Zach, thanks for the question. We're going to hold back on diving into the specifics of our upcoming ALC offerings for competitive reasons. But what I can share, historically, our 2 main ALC features, Super Like and Boost, have been helping users gain more visibility and stand out. But we actually have not launched any new ALC features for a long time. We're now exploring additional ALC features that can bring even more value to our users.
Zach,謝謝你的提問。出於競爭考慮,我們暫時不會透露即將推出的ALC產品的具體細節。但我可以分享的是,以往我們兩大ALC功能——超級按讚和推廣——一直都在幫助用戶提升曝光度,脫穎而出。但實際上,我們已經很久沒有推出任何新的ALC功能了。目前,我們正在探索更多能為用戶帶來更大價值的ALC功能。
Our team will vigorously test new offerings to see what resonates most with our daters. And in this effort, we mobilize our portfolio of brands to partner and collaborate with Tinder on these tests. This approach is similar to how Swipe Apps actually tested weekly subs to tune the right offering before we introduced them on Tinder and Hinge. This team effort will be instrumental in trialing some of these potential new features before we roll them out on Tinder. Expect to see a new ALC offering from us in the second half of this year.
我們的團隊將積極測試各項新功能,以了解哪些最能引起約會用戶的共鳴。為此,我們將調動旗下所有品牌與 Tinder 合作進行這些測試。這種方法與 Swipe Apps 先前在 Tinder 和 Hinge 上推出每週訂閱服務以進行最佳化調整的做法類似。這種團隊協作對於我們在 Tinder 上正式推出這些潛在新功能之前進行測試至關重要。預計我們將在今年下半年推出一項新的 ALC 服務。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.
下一個問題來自德意志銀行的班傑明·布萊克。
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
I guess with the new leadership in place, what, I guess, any difference should we expect in Tinder strategy? How should we think about things like product output velocity, marketing strategy? For instance, I think you guys also mentioned sort of the renewed focus on ecosystem improvements. And BK, now that you have a permanent successor in place at Tinder, how do you envision your role sort of evolving?
我想,隨著新領導階層的到位,Tinder 的策略會有哪些改變呢?我們該如何看待產品發布速度、行銷策略等議題?例如,你們之前也提到要重新關註生態系的改進。 BK,既然你在 Tinder 已經有了正式的繼任者,你覺得你的角色未來會如何發展?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Ben, for the question. Now over the last 18 months, Faye has been a real partner to me. She's so passionate about Tinder and knows the business and product inside out.
謝謝Ben的提問。過去18個月裡,Faye一直是我的得力助手。她對Tinder充滿熱情,對公司的業務和產品瞭如指掌。
We've stabilized and returned Tinder to revenue growth. And I believe that Faye is only going to accelerate that momentum. The team is fully aligned and clear on their goals.
我們已經穩定了Tinder的運營,並使其恢復了營收成長。我相信Faye的加入只會加速這股勢頭。團隊目標一致,思緒清晰。
Faye has been instrumental in shaping our roadmap. And now as CEO, she is pushing forward with modernizing the product, boosting development speed and bringing vital leadership. And her focus will be particularly in enhancing women's experience and the overall ecosystem health at Tinder.
Faye在製定我們的發展路線圖方面發揮了至關重要的作用。如今,身為首席執行官,她正大力推動產品現代化,加快開發速度,並帶來關鍵的領導力。她將特別致力於提升女性用戶的體驗,並改善Tinder整體生態系統的健康發展。
She will share more of our plan later this year, but the core focus is clear: making Tinder more engaging for younger users and ensure superior experiences for women.
她將在今年稍後分享我們計劃的更多細節,但核心重點很明確:讓 Tinder 對年輕用戶更具吸引力,並確保女性用戶獲得更優質的體驗。
Now as for my role, I have a ton of rewarding work to do across the portfolio. There's a wealth of exciting innovation sprints across Match Group that I'm deeply involved in. Now at the same time, I'm committed to maintaining a close and effective partnership with Faye and the Tinder leadership team. We will ensure that we continue to drive Tinder growth together as a team.
至於我的職責,我有很多意義非凡的工作要做,涵蓋了整個產品組合。 Match Group 旗下有許多令人興奮的創新項目,我都深度參與其中。同時,我致力於與 Faye 和 Tinder 的領導團隊保持緊密有效的合作關係。我們將攜手並進,確保 Tinder 繼續保持成長動能。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Mark Kelley with Stifel.
下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Mark Kelley。
Mark Patrick Kelley - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Mark Patrick Kelley - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Great. I just have one, probably for BK. A lot of AI commentary in the note and in your prepared remarks. I guess my question is, is the goal to have like a unified AI infrastructure on the back end that will be utilized across the portfolio?
太好了。我只有一個問題,可能跟BK有關。報告和您準備的發言稿中有很多關於人工智慧的評論。我想問的是,你們的目標是不是在後端建立一個統一的人工智慧基礎設施,供整個投資組合使用?
Or do you think there are unique needs across each individual brand where it makes sense to maybe modify those AI capabilities? And I guess second to that, I know you gave us guidance for the full year in terms of margins, but any cost implications that we should be aware of?
或者您認為每個品牌都有其獨特的需求,因此可能需要調整人工智慧功能?其次,我知道您已經給出了全年的利潤率預期,但我們應該注意哪些成本方面的影響?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Mark. I was actually hoping that someone ask me about AI. And I want to just share some of my thoughts around AI. I mean I believe that AI is existential to the future of Match Group and our business.
謝謝你,馬克。其實我一直希望有人能問我關於人工智慧的問題。我想分享我對人工智慧的一些看法。我認為人工智慧對Match Group的未來以及我們公司的業務發展至關重要。
AI will help us create improved user experiences and will truly make our products better. And that puts us in a different category from other companies that are just looking at optimizing through AI and slight improvements.
人工智慧將幫助我們創造更佳的用戶體驗,並真正提升我們的產品。這使我們與其他僅僅著眼於透過人工智慧進行優化和細微改進的公司截然不同。
This technology is revolutionary for dating, and we're bringing it to life across our entire portfolio. I envision AI to be felt through the entire experience, influencing everything from profile creation to matching and connecting for dates, literally everything. Our data as a team and deep understanding of dating and singles is a rich resource for informing our AI dating models internally. Our 2 biggest brands, Tinder and Hinge, have their own AI strategies tailored to its unique needs and listening to daters and what they want.
這項技術對約會領域來說具有革命性意義,我們正在將其應用於我們所有的產品組合中。我設想人工智慧將貫穿整個體驗,影響從個人資料創建到匹配約會的每個環節,可謂無所不包。我們團隊的數據以及對約會和單身人士的深刻理解,為我們內部的人工智慧約會模式提供了豐富的資源。我們旗下的兩大品牌 Tinder 和 Hinge 都擁有各自獨特的人工智慧策略,這些策略根據其獨特的需求量身定制,並充分傾聽約會者的聲音和需求。
Now we do have this central innovation team working across the entire portfolio on moonshot ideas and incubating new products. And our talented team at Hyperconnect is playing a crucial role in supporting all of these initiatives across the company. I'm really excited about this revolution going across the entire team. Gary mentioned in his comments that we are investing $20 million to $30 million in AI innovation. And I absolutely believe it's the right thing for us to do to drive enduring strength, better experiences and future growth for our business.
現在,我們擁有一個中央創新團隊,負責整個產品組合中具有突破性意義的創意和新產品孵化工作。我們Hyperconnect的優秀團隊在支持公司所有此類舉措方面發揮著至關重要的作用。我對這場席捲整個團隊的變革感到非常興奮。 Gary在發言中提到,我們將在人工智慧創新方面投資2,000萬至3,000萬美元。我堅信,這對我們業務的持久發展、提升用戶體驗和促進未來成長而言,是正確的選擇。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citigroup.
下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。
Ygal Arounian - Director of Internet Equity Research
Ygal Arounian - Director of Internet Equity Research
Just one follow-up on the AI thought. And obviously, lots of talk around this here. And just trying to understand how much AI contribution is kind of embedded into the expectations for 2024. When you see it having a more meaningful impact? And maybe, at least, for this year, do you see it as more of a driver for Payers or for RPP? Or does it -- can it contribute to both?
關於人工智慧,我還有一個後續問題。顯然,大家都在熱烈討論這個話題。我只是想了解一下,人工智慧在多大程度上能夠為2024年做出貢獻?您認為何時它才能產生更顯著的影響?或許至少就今年而言,您認為它對支付方還是對RPP(病患支付計畫)的影響更大?或者說,它能否同時對兩者產生影響?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Why don't I jump in and take that one? So as BK said, we've got a lot of exciting AI initiatives planned for Tinder, for Hinge and for new products as well that we're going to roll over the course of 2024. So we do have very high expectations for delivery of all these products and features that we think they will enhance the user experience.
我為什麼不插手?正如BK所說,我們為Tinder、Hinge以及其他新產品規劃了許多令人興奮的AI項目,這些項目將在2024年陸續推出。我們對所有這些產品和功能的交付都寄予厚望,相信它們能夠提升用戶體驗。
And so I think it's logical to think that they would benefit RPP because it will be a better experience, people should see more value in the product and be willing to pay more. But I would tell you that at this point, given that it's still very early in the evolution of these various products and features, we haven't included any notable revenue in our 2024 outlook from the AI efforts.
因此,我認為RPP受益是合乎邏輯的,因為它能帶來更好的體驗,人們會覺得產品更有價值,也更願意支付更高的價格。但我必須指出,鑑於這些產品和功能仍處於早期發展階段,我們尚未將人工智慧帶來的顯著收入納入2024年的預期。
As BK mentioned, we've put in all of the costs, which we've estimated at $20 million to $30 million, so we can go hire people, do the work to build out these different products and features and roll them out over the course of the year. But we are waiting on the revenue side. Now you might view that as a conservative assumption, and it very well could be. But I think at this point in time, it's the right thing to do. And we'll obviously continue to update what we're seeing from the AI initiatives as the year progresses.
正如BK所提到的,我們已經把所有成本都算進去了,估計在2000萬到3000萬美元之間,這樣我們就可以招人,開發這些不同的產品和功能,並在今年陸續推出。但我們還在等待收入方面的數據。你可能會覺得這個估計比較保守,確實如此。但我認為,就目前而言,這是正確的做法。隨著時間的推移,我們當然會持續更新人工智慧專案的進展。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的科里·卡彭特。
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Anything you would call out or highlight on the Tinder product roadmap that you think could be particularly impactful in driving that Tinder Payer turnaround in second half? And Gary, just to clarify, the $20 million App Store benefit, is that included in the guide? Or is that something that would be upside?
在Tinder的產品路線圖中,您認為有哪些方面特別重要,能夠對下半年Tinder付費用戶的成長起到關鍵作用?還有,Gary,我再確認一下,App Store的2000萬美元收益是否包含在路線圖中?還是說這只是額外的收益?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
I'll take the first part of that question, Cory. We feel really good about the progress that we've made at Tinder over the past few months, and the results have aligned really well with our expectations. We've demonstrated Tinder's capability to deliver. They've achieved double-digit revenue growth for the last 2 quarters consecutively. And I'm really excited about the continued strong execution velocity and the product and marketing roadmaps for 2024.
我先回答問題的第一部分,Cory。過去幾個月,Tinder取得了顯著進展,我們對此感到非常滿意,而且結果也完全符合預期。我們已經證明了Tinder的交付能力。過去兩個季度,Tinder的營收連續實現了兩位數的成長。我對公司持續強勁的執行力以及2024年的產品和行銷路線圖感到非常興奮。
Now we acknowledge that Q4 was a large sequential Payer decline, but we are optimistic about the future as we see these declines moderating. Looking ahead, we're confident that in Q3, Tinder Payers will turn positive on a sequential basis. This confidence stems from marketing coupled with several product initiatives that are underway. Our key strategies include enhancing the visibility and value of our paid packages and dynamically showing the right offer to the right user at the right time. Now additionally, our monetization team is working on more market-specific conversion strategies and experimenting with unbundling certain premium features that currently sit behind a paywall.
我們承認第四季度付費用戶數量較上季大幅下降,但我們對未來持樂觀態度,因為我們看到這種下滑趨勢正在緩和。展望未來,我們有信心在第三季實現付費用戶數量季增。這種信心源自於行銷以及我們正在推動的多項產品措施。我們的關鍵策略包括提升付費方案的可見度和價值,並在適當的時間向合適的用戶動態展示合適的優惠。此外,我們的獲利團隊正在研究更具市場針對性的轉換策略,並嘗試將目前需要付費才能使用的部分進階功能拆分出來。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
And then on the DMA question. Cory, we've got this margin floor in our financial outlook. And so the $15 million, that would probably accrue in 2024 because we're saying it's $20 million annualized. So if you say it's 3/4, let's call it, $15 million. That obviously helps us achieve our margin target or even gives us an ability to exceed the margin target as the year goes on.
關於DMA的問題,Cory,我們在財務展望中設定了利潤率下限。這1500萬美元可能會在2024年實現,因為我們預計年化利潤率為2000萬美元。所以,如果你說是3/4,我們姑且算1500萬美元。這顯然有助於我們實現利潤率目標,甚至讓我們有能力在年底前超越利潤率目標。
And so it's helpful in that regard to kind of push us maybe at the top end or higher than kind of what people might be expecting. And so it's definitely a positive from our perspective.
所以從這個角度來看,這有助於我們達到更高的水平,甚至超越人們的預期。因此,從我們的角度來看,這絕對是件好事。
Obviously, we've got a lot of investment going on, and so we'll have to think about whether any of that should be reinvested. But ultimately, I do think it's a $15 million positive for the year.
顯然,我們有很多投資項目正在進行中,所以我們需要考慮是否應該再投資其中一部分。但最終,我認為這將為今年帶來1500萬美元的收益。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist Securities.
下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Youssef Squali。
Youssef Houssaini Squali - MD & Senior Analyst
Youssef Houssaini Squali - MD & Senior Analyst
So the company has been talking about steps to reduce duplicative functions and migrate the Evergreen & Emerging Brands onto one technology platform to consolidate the brands onto a single tech stack. Where are you in that process? What kind of cost savings or margin impact are you baking in, in 2024? And ultimately, how much do you anticipate to be deriving from that over time?
所以,公司一直在討論如何減少重複功能,並將常青品牌和新興品牌遷移到一個技術平台上,從而將所有品牌整合到一個統一的技術堆疊中。你們目前進展到什麼階段了?預計到2024年,你們將實現怎樣的成本節約或利潤成長?最終,你們預計隨著時間的推移,能從中獲得多少收益?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. We haven't spent a lot of addressing that. So appreciate the question. What's been happening, and this is related to our E&E business, both the Emerging businesses and the Evergreen businesses, where we're trying to be more efficient.
當然。我們在這方面投入的精力不多。所以很感謝您的提問。最近發生的事情,與我們的電子電氣業務有關,包括新興業務和常青業務,我們正在努力提高效率。
What we've started to do is centralize teams and reduce redundancies in various aspects of the E&E business. So if you look at the marketing function, you look at the customer care function, other aspects of their operations, we're reducing duplication. And that's leading to some savings this year and on an ongoing basis. So that's kind of the first piece of what's going on there. But the second and more important piece is that we've got a number of brands within that mini portfolio inside the company. We're consolidating the technology platforms onto a single technology platform.
我們已經開始著手整合團隊,減少電子電氣業務各環節的冗餘。無論是行銷、客戶服務,或是其他營運環節,我們都在減少重複勞動。這不僅在今年節省了成本,而且還將持續帶來收益。這是我們目前採取的第一項措施。但第二項,也是更重要的措施,是我們將公司旗下眾多品牌整合到一個統一的技術平台上。
We did a couple of the smaller brands last year. We're going to do a couple of more brands this year, and then we're going to do some of the bigger brands next year. So it's a multiyear process. And the reason for that is, it has customer implications. And so you have to be cautious. It's a complex and risky undertaking. And we want to do it right and not have any unexpected consequences. And so we're working kind of very deliberately and very carefully to make all of that happen. When those consolidations take place, we do see significant cost savings from them. And so that's where we really started to get the financial benefit.
去年我們整合了幾個規模較小的品牌。今年我們也會整合幾個品牌,明年我們會整合一些規模較大的品牌。所以這是一個多年計劃。原因在於,這會對客戶產生影響。因此,我們必須謹慎行事。這是一項複雜且風險很高的工作。我們希望確保一切順利進行,並避免任何意想不到的後果。所以我們正在非常謹慎、非常周密地推進這項工作。整合完成後,我們確實看到了顯著的成本節約。而這正是我們真正開始獲得財務利益的地方。
So as I mentioned, we got a little bit as a result of what we did last year. We've got a little bit more as what I would do this year. And then the real benefits will accrue fully by 2026, where we'll see all the benefits of having one single platform, and we'll have reduced all of the various redundancies. I would estimate that there's probably a 10-point margin improvement in the E&E business once all of those cost savings are fully included. So that's a substantial amount of money on a business that is somewhere between $600 million and $700 million of revenue.
正如我剛才提到的,我們去年的一些措施帶來了一些成果。今年,我計劃採取更多措施,這樣就能達到更多成效。真正的收益將在2026年全面顯現,屆時我們將看到單一平台帶來的所有好處,並且所有冗餘環節都將有效削減。我估計,一旦所有成本節約都計入在內,電子電氣業務的利潤率可能會提高10個百分點。對於一個年收入在6億至7億美元之間的業務來說,這可是一筆相當可觀的數目。
And so that enables us to reinvest the savings into growth businesses around the company, whether that's into Tinder, whether that's at the Hinge or wherever we want to put it. That's the plan once those savings are achieved. So this is a pretty significant undertaking for the company. It gives us the ability to reinvest the dollars that are coming out as a result of the platform consolidations, and we're working very hard and carefully to make all of that happen.
這樣一來,我們就能將節省下來的資金再投資到公司旗下各個成長型業務中,無論是投資到 Tinder、Hinge,還是其他任何我們想投資的地方。這就是實現這些節省目標後的計劃。因此,這對公司來說是一項意義重大的舉措。它使我們能夠將平台整合後節省下來的資金進行再投資,我們正在努力謹慎地推動這一切。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Ross Sandler with Barclays.
下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的羅斯桑德勒。
Ross Adam Sandler - MD of Americas Equity Research & Senior Internet Analyst
Ross Adam Sandler - MD of Americas Equity Research & Senior Internet Analyst
Great. Gary, can we go back to the App Store fees topic in the DMA? So it sounds like, based on public statements anyway, that Spotify and Fortnite have very little interest in paying Apple anything for apps that are side loaded where there's direct billing in that app at least in Europe. So would you guys fall into that camp? And is that $20 million that you called out just from the fee changes that have been announced assuming that you actually have to pay them for these changes?
好的。 Gary,我們能回到DMA的App Store費用話題嗎?根據公開聲明來看,Spotify和Fortnite似乎不太願意為那些透過第三方安裝、應用程式內直接計費的應用程式支付任何費用,至少在歐洲是如此。你們也持這種觀點嗎?你提到的2000萬美元只是已公佈的費用變更造成的損失嗎?假設你們真的需要為這些變更付費的話?
And then -- and I guess the second question is, if Google kind of matches a similar fee structure and then this kind of becomes the global standard, what would that total number look like in some future state versus the 20 you called out?
然後——我想第二個問題是,如果Google也採用類似的收費結構,而這種收費結構成為全球標準,那麼在未來的某個時候,總數會和你提到的 20 家公司相比如何呢?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Yes. So it's one of the reasons why, in answering Cory's question, is it included or not. There's still a lot of uncertainty around this. I think if you just do the straight calculation as we understand the policy changes that Apple put in place, you get to that $20 million number for a full year.
是的。所以,這也是我在回答科里的問題時,無法確定它是否包含在內的原因之一。目前這方面仍存在許多不確定性。我認為,如果按照我們對蘋果公司政策變化的理解直接計算,一年下來就是 2000 萬美元。
But I think there's still a lot of questions. As you point out, Spotify has raised questions and concerns. Microsoft has raised them. Others have raised them. And so you have to decide whether to opt into this or not. We have not yet done so. And so we're still considering what this all means, which is why just kind of putting it into the guidance or not is not exactly the way this all works. And so we're still looking at it, making sure we understand it.
但我認為仍然存在很多問題。正如你所指出的,Spotify提出了疑問和擔憂,微軟也提出了,其他公司也提出了。所以,你必須決定是否要加入。我們還沒有做出決定。因此,我們仍在考慮這一切的意義,這就是為什麼僅僅將其納入指導方針並不是解決問題的方法。所以我們仍在研究,確保我們理解它。
And frankly, if you understand the dynamics of all this, this is what Apple has proposed complies with the Digital Markets Act in Europe. The European Commission actually has to accept that this proposal complies and that and of itself is far from assured. And so I think that will continue to play itself out over the next weeks or months as we get to that March 6 deadline. So we'll see how this all plays out.
坦白說,如果你了解這一切的來龍去脈,就會明白蘋果提出的方案符合歐洲《數位市場法》。但歐盟委員會必須接受這項方案的合規性,而這一點本身遠非板上釘釘。因此,我認為在接下來的幾週或幾個月裡,隨著3月6日截止日期的臨近,事態仍會繼續發展。讓我們拭目以待。
From our perspective, the good news is that we expected the DMA to lead the changes on the App Store side, and we started to see that. And it's hard for us to fathom that it will end there because even if the changes that Apple has proposed are what goes into place in the EU, if you're a consumer in the U.S. or you're a consumer in the U.K. right next door to the EU. You start to wonder, "Well, why are customers in the EU getting benefit, and we're not getting the same benefits?"
從我們的角度來看,好消息是我們預期DMA會引領App Store方面的變革,而且我們已經開始看到這種趨勢。但我們很難想像事情會就此止步,因為即使蘋果提出的變革最終在歐盟實施,如果你是美國消費者,或者你是緊鄰歐盟的英國消費者,你就會開始質疑:“為什麼歐盟的消費者能從中受益,而我們卻不能?”
And so if you're the government in those jurisdictions, you'd say, "Well, our citizens deserve the same benefits as what we're seeing in the European Union." And so that's why in my remarks, I said we think it's the first brick. I think there's more to come. And just so you have an order of magnitude in your mind, we probably get 5 or 6x the savings if the Apple changes as currently proposed were to be implemented in the rest of the world because while we have a relatively small percentage of our revenue in the European Union that comes from iOS. We've got a lot in the U.K. We've got a lot in North America.
所以,如果你是這些地區的政府,你會說:「我們的公民理應享有與歐盟公民相同的權益。」這就是為什麼我在演講中說,我們認為這只是第一步,未來還有更多。為了讓大家對這個數字有個大致的概念,如果蘋果目前提出的改革方案在世界其他地區實施,我們大概可以節省5到6倍的成本。因為雖然我們在歐盟的收入中只有相對較小一部分來自iOS,但在英國和北美,iOS的收入佔比都很高。
And so there's really significant benefits in those jurisdictions if these policy changes are made. So that's where the significant benefits to us really would be, either further changes to the policies or expansions of the geographies. And I think both of those things are very, very possible. The impact of further change on Google is not nearly as dramatic as the Apple side. I think that's where we could see really meaningful steps forward. And we're excited to see kind of where this goes because we've been waiting for this for a long time, and this is the first tangible movement that we've seen from the regulators.
因此,如果這些政策調整得以實施,這些地區將獲得顯著的益處。對我們來說,真正的益處在於政策的進一步調整或地理範圍的擴大。我認為這兩種可能性都非常大。進一步的政策調整對谷歌的影響遠不如對蘋果的影響那麼巨大。我認為,在Google方面,我們或許能看到真正意義上的進步。我們很期待事態的發展,因為我們已經為此等待了很久,而這是我們從監管機構看到的第一個實際進展。
And as I mentioned in my remarks, that's on top of some of the other things that have happened from a court perspective, which look like they're going to open up the ability to use other app stores, which again is very significant for us or other processors for payments as well, which again is very significant for us. So there's a lot of moving pieces to this. What we can quantify today is the $20 million based on the changes that have been made, but I think you have to think a little bit more broadly about what's more likely to happen here over the next little while.
正如我剛才提到的,除了這些,從法院的角度來看,還有一些其他的事情正在發生,例如他們似乎將允許使用其他應用程式商店,這對我們以及其他支付處理商來說都非常重要。所以,這件事有很多變數。目前我們可以量化的是,根據已經做出的改變,這筆金額為2000萬美元,但我認為,我們需要更全面地考慮一下未來一段時間內可能發生的事情。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Brad Erickson with RBC.
下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的布拉德·埃里克森。
Bradley D. Erickson - Analyst
Bradley D. Erickson - Analyst
Yes. One of the questions we've been getting from investors a lot lately is just given the impact you've seen on these pricing optimizations on Tinder, just curious if you'd ever consider any sort of like alternative path there on pricing in 2024, maybe rolling things back, et cetera, as a way to get Payers back on earlier?
是的。最近我們經常收到投資者的一個問題,鑑於你們看到的這些定價優化對 Tinder 的影響,我們想知道你們是否會考慮在 2024 年採取某種替代定價方案,比如回滾一些定價策略等等,以此來讓付費用戶更早地回歸?
And then maybe just to clarify as well, you talked about the RPP growth to Tinder, I think, looking out to the second half of the year. And it sounds like maybe AI could be having something to do with that. But then yes, you were pretty clear that like AI is not really in the forecast. Maybe if you could just reconcile that a bit.
還有一點要澄清的是,您提到了Tinder的RPP成長,我想您指的是下半年的成長情況。聽起來人工智慧可能與此有關。但您也明確表示,人工智慧並不在預測範圍內。您能否就此稍作解釋?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Yes. Look, I think that we look at all of these different levers all the time. But as we've talked about many times, we're focused on increasing revenue, not specifically increasing revenue per Payer or Payers just for the sake of moving either of those KPIs.
是的。你看,我認為我們一直在關注所有這些不同的影響因素。但正如我們多次討論過的,我們專注於提高總收入,而不是為了提升某個關鍵績效指標而刻意提高每個付費用戶或付費用戶的收入。
And so we remain focused with our north star on revenue. But as we prioritize things, we have the ability to focus a little bit more on Payers and potentially make some more impact there because there's always choices to be made on the product roadmap. So we're mindful of the fact that everyone is very focused on what's going to happen with Payers. We have enough in the roadmap to achieve the Payer pivot in the third quarter as we described earlier and to get to Payer growth in the fourth quarter.
因此,我們依然以營收為核心目標。但隨著我們對各項工作的優先順序進行調整,我們有能力將更多精力放在支付方業務上,並有可能在該領域取得更大進展,因為產品路線圖上總會有需要做出的選擇。我們清楚地意識到,大家都非常關注支付方業務的未來發展。正如我們之前所述,我們的路線圖足以在第三季度實現支付方業務的轉型,並在第四季度實現支付方業務的成長。
So naturally, you would expect that over the course of the year, as the benefits of all the pricing optimizations and when these subscribers start to subside, we'll get to a better balance by the fourth quarter in terms of Payer growth and RPP growth to equate to the revenue growth that we're expecting in the fourth quarter. So we will start to see this kind of normalize and become more balanced over the course of the year as things wash through. We're not going to go to sort of abnormal efforts to drive Payers because I don't think that's healthy for the business.
因此,很自然地,隨著價格優化帶來的好處逐漸顯現,以及新用戶數量開始下降,預計到第四季度,付費用戶成長和每用戶付費用戶成長將達到更好的平衡,從而與我們預期的第四季度營收成長相匹配。因此,隨著各種因素的逐步顯現,我們將看到這種情況在一年中逐漸趨於正常化和平衡。我們不會採取非常規手段來推動付費用戶成長,因為我認為這對業務發展不利。
But we are, obviously, cognizant of the various concerns around this. And I do think you will naturally see it become much more balanced as the year goes on.
但我們顯然也意識到了圍繞這方面的各種擔憂。而且我認為,隨著時間的推移,情況自然會變得更加平衡。
All right. I want to thank everybody for joining us this morning. I think we're right at time. We appreciate it, as always. And we look forward to seeing everyone again next quarter. Thank you so much.
好的。感謝大家今天上午的參與。我覺得時間剛剛好。一如既往,我們非常感謝大家。期待下個季度再次見到大家。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議已結束。感謝您參加今天的報告。您可以斷開連線了。