Match Group Inc (MTCH) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Match Group 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Tanny Shelburne。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。今天的電話會議將由執行長 Bernard Kim 主持；以及總裁兼財務長 Gary Swidler。他們會做一些簡短的評論，然後我們將開放提問。

Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC.

在開始之前，我需要提醒大家，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會討論我們的前景和未來的表現。這些前瞻性陳述之前可能會出現「我們期望」、「我們相信」、「我們預期」或類似陳述等字眼。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與今天表達的觀點有重大差異。其中一些風險已在我們的收益發布和向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中列出。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to B.K.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給 B.K.

Thanks, Tanny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. I come to work every day energized because I get to work at a company dedicated to helping people find love, happiness and human connections. That inspiration not only inspires me but also our teams and has enabled another strong quarter of strong operating and financial results for Match Group in Q3, highlighted by a second consecutive quarter of record total revenue and AOI.

謝謝，坦尼。大家早安，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我每天都精力充沛地上班，因為我在一家致力於幫助人們找到愛、幸福和人際關係的公司工作。這種靈感不僅激勵了我，也激勵了我們的團隊，並讓 Match Group 在第三季度再次實現了強勁的營運和財務業績，其中總收入和 AOI 連續第二個季度創下新紀錄。

Our businesses have demonstrated that setting clear goals and objectives cannot only build momentum in the current year but also set up our company for a bright future. Tinder is a great example of this. Tinder's business model was built largely on virality, but it's not lost on me how important it is to continue to drive forward with innovative marketing and product initiatives while also rebuilding the revenue momentum that Tinder has enjoyed for so long, not just in 2023 but for years to come.

我們的業務已經證明，制定明確的目標和目標不僅可以為今年增添動力，而且可以為我們的公司創造光明的未來。 Tinder 就是一個很好的例子。 Tinder 的商業模式主要建立在病毒式傳播的基礎上，但我並沒有忘記繼續推動創新行銷和產品計劃的重要性，同時重建 Tinder 長期以來享有的收入勢頭，不僅是在 2023 年，而且在未來幾年。

Looking at 2023 thus far, I deeply believe we made the right decision in prioritizing revenue growth initiatives at Tinder with U.S. price optimizations and weekly subscription packages. While we recognize that these actions have created short-term volatility in Tinder's payer count, we're essentially resetting Tinder's payer base at a significantly higher rate which has enabled double-digit revenue growth 1 quarter ahead of our initial expectations, an outcome that we're very pleased with.

展望 2023 年迄今為止，我堅信我們做出了正確的決定，將 Tinder 的收入增長計劃優先考慮美國價格優化和每週訂閱套餐。雖然我們認識到這些行動造成了Tinder 付款人數量的短期波動，但我們實際上是在以顯著更高的速度重置Tinder 的付款人基礎，這使得收入比我們最初的預期提前1 個季度實現兩位數成長，這結果是我們非常滿意。

The other component of Tinder's ongoing success is centered on product and marketing initiatives that reignite user growth and improve its brand narrative. We saw great strength through June in terms of total sign-ups and reactivations as a result of the It Starts With a Swipe campaign. However, in late summer, Tinder pulled back its spend on the campaign and concentrated more heavily into female-focused messaging.

Tinder 持續成功的另一個因素是產品和行銷舉措，這些舉措能夠重新激發用戶成長並改善其品牌形象。由於「It Starts With a Swipe」活動，我們在 6 月看到了總註冊量和重新激活量的強勁增長。然而，在夏末，Tinder 削減了在行銷活動上的支出，並將更多精力集中在以女性為中心的訊息傳遞上。

Although overall user trends remained slightly down as a result of the pullback, Tinder's younger female sign-ups did not see the same pullback, proving that we continue to make good progress with this critical demographic. Tinder also began marketing again on college campuses for the first time in 3 years and launched a new feature called Matchmaker in mid-October, both of which featured well-known rappers as part of their campaigns. We are so excited to leverage the power of music into our work because we know how core it is to the lives of Gen Z users.

儘管整體用戶趨勢因回調而略有下降，但 Tinder 的年輕女性註冊人數並未出現相同的回調，這證明我們在這一關鍵人群方面繼續取得了良好進展。 Tinder 還三年來首次再次開始在大學校園進行行銷，並於 10 月中旬推出了名為“Matchmaker”的新功能，這兩項功能均以知名說唱歌手為宣傳活動的一部分。我們很高興能夠將音樂的力量融入我們的工作中，因為我們知道它對 Z 世代使用者的生活有多麼核心。

Tinder SELECT, our first-ever high-end tier, also rolled out in September and has seen early interest, but the nature of the business is such that we need to continue to iterate and make sure that it's an exceptional experience that deeply resonates for users and provides the value that they are looking for.

我們的首款高端服務 Tinder SELECT 也在 9 月推出，並引起了人們的早期興趣，但業務的性質決定了我們需要繼續迭代，並確保這是一種能夠引起深刻共鳴的非凡體驗。用戶並提供他們正在尋找的價值。

Importantly, Tinder's learnings from 2023 are informing its 2024 road map, which we will continue to build off of what we've accomplished throughout this year. For example, we've learned from launching weekly subscriptions that the younger generations Tinder primarily serves have more of an affinity to lower price and shorter-term duration products than we had initially anticipated. Therefore, we're exploring opportunities to increase our monetization by revisiting our à la carte portfolio. The reality is that roughly 85% of our à la carte payers are subscribers, representing a very large untapped potential for future monetization and payer penetration.

重要的是，Tinder 在 2023 年取得的經驗教訓為其 2024 年路線圖提供了信息，我們將在今年所取得的成就的基礎上繼續發展該路線圖。例如，我們透過推出每週訂閱了解到，Tinder 主要服務的年輕一代比我們最初預期的更喜歡價格較低、期限較短的產品。因此，我們正在透過重新審視我們的點菜投資組合來探索增加貨幣化的機會。現實情況是，大約 85% 的點菜付款人都是訂閱者，這代表著未來貨幣化和付款人滲透率的巨大未開發潛力。

Also, we believe that Tinder has a long runway ahead in international markets where it can really push penetration higher. These represent real opportunities for Tinder and give me a great deal of confidence in Tinder's ability to achieve future growth expectations.

此外，我們相信 Tinder 在國際市場上還有很長的路要走，它確實可以提高滲透率。這些對 Tinder 來說是真正的機會，讓我對 Tinder 實現未來成長預期的能力充滿信心。

Looking across the entire Match Group portfolio, I continue to be amazed by the level of team collaboration, work output and innovation taking place on behalf of daters across the globe.

縱觀整個 Match Group 產品組合，我對全球約會者的團隊合作、工作成果和創新水平繼續感到驚訝。

Hinge continues to prove that when you have a great product and a brand that deeply resonates, good things happen. Through Q3, Hinge drove usage levels to an all-time high, becoming the #1 most downloaded dating app in several important markets like the U.K. and Australia and has firmly solidified itself as a top 3 dating app in the U.S. Not only that, but Hinge continues to make massive inroads in its European expansion markets.

Hinge 不斷證明，當您擁有出色的產品和能引起深刻共鳴的品牌時，美好的事情就會發生。透過第三季度，Hinge 將使用率推向歷史新高，成為英國和澳大利亞等幾個重要市場中下載量排名第一的約會應用程序，並牢牢鞏固了自己作為美國排名前3 的約會應用程序的地位。Hinge 繼續大舉進軍歐洲擴張市場。

All of this enabled another quarter of strong double-digit revenue growth. With Hinge well on its way to delivering its $400 million annual revenue target in 2023, we see an even brighter future ahead led by ongoing growth initiatives and more monetization capabilities.

所有這些使得另一個季度的收入實現兩位數的強勁增長。隨著 Hinge 順利實現 2023 年 4 億美元的年收入目標，我們看到在持續的成長計畫和更多的貨幣化能力的引領下，未來會更加光明。

At Match Group Asia, Azar continues to post double-digit revenue growth rates, driven by its new AI-enabled matching algorithm, a demonstration of Hyperconnect's best-in-class talent coming to life to drive user growth and financial strength. At Pairs, we launched our first-ever TV campaign, which marks an extremely important step in breaking down stigma and unlocking improved user trends.

在 Match Group Asia，Azar 繼續保持兩位數的營收成長率，這得益於其新的人工智慧匹配演算法，這證明了 Hyperconnect 一流的人才正在發揮作用，推動用戶成長和財務實力。在 Pairs，我們推出了有史以來的第一個電視活動，這標誌著打破恥辱和釋放改善的用戶趨勢的極其重要的一步。

And at E&E, we rolled out Archer, our first dating app for gay, bisexual and queer men, nationwide in late September. Again, one full quarter ahead of initial plans and the team is even accelerating its international plans given such strong user receptivity thus far as it zeroes in on key competitors. Archer is another example of how our teams take learnings and effectively apply them to drive improved outcomes for its users and our portfolio.

在 E&E，我們於 9 月下旬在全國範圍內推出了 Archer，這是我們的首款針對男同性戀、雙性戀和酷兒男性的約會應用程式。再一次，比最初的計劃提前了整整一個季​​度，鑑於迄今為止用戶的接受度如此之高，該團隊甚至正在加速其國際計劃，因為它瞄準了主要競爭對手。 Archer 是我們團隊如何吸取經驗教訓並有效應用它們來推動用戶和我們的產品組合取得更好成果的另一個例子。

We remain deeply committed to our innovation and the use of AI to provide users the best possible dating experience. And I look forward to sharing more on our efforts in our Q4 call as we think about how innovation can really improve our users' experience and expand the category. We know there is much more work to be done to finish 2023 from a position of strength and set our company up to deliver ongoing shareholder value over time.

我們仍然堅定地致力於我們的創新和人工智慧的使用，為用戶提供最好的約會體驗。我期待在第四季度的電話會議中分享更多關於我們的努力，因為我們正在思考創新如何真正改善用戶體驗並擴大產品類別。我們知道，要在 2023 年結束時保持強勢地位，並使我們的公司能夠隨著時間的推移持續交付股東價值，還有很多工作要做。

With that, I'll turn it over to Gary.

有了這個，我會把它交給加里。

Thanks, B.K. and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. The momentum in our financial performance strengthened again this quarter, and we hit our financial target of 10% Tinder year-over-year direct revenue growth, 1 quarter earlier than we've been expecting. As B.K. mentioned, we achieved record quarterly total revenue as well as record AOI and OI at Match Group in Q3, a clear demonstration of the financial power of the business. We're pleased by the revenue momentum at Tinder and also by the exceptional user and revenue momentum at Hinge. Our judicious focus on costs across the company is enabling us to invest in our growth businesses and deliver record profits.

謝謝，B.K.大家好。感謝您今天早上加入我們。本季我們的財務表現動能再次增強，我們實現了 Tinder 直接營收年增 10% 的財務目標，比我們的預期提前了 1 個季度。正如 B.K.如上所述，我們在第三季度實現了 Match Group 創紀錄的季度總收入以及創紀錄的 AOI 和 OI，這清楚地證明了該業務的財務實力。我們對 Tinder 的收入動能以及 Hinge 卓越的用戶和收入動能感到高興。我們對整個公司成本的明智關注使我們能夠投資於我們的成長型業務並創造創紀錄的利潤。

Match Group's total revenue for Q3 was $882 million, up 9% year-over-year compared to up 4% year-over-year in Q2. FX was a notable headwind once again and $10 million more severe than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call. Tinder outperformed our expectations in the quarter, as the revenue momentum we saw from price optimizations in the U.S. and weekly subscriptions continue to deliver.

Match Group 第三季總營收為 8.82 億美元，年增 9%，而第二季年增 4%。外匯再次成為顯著的逆風，比我們上次財報電話會議時的預期嚴重 1000 萬美元。 Tinder 本季的表現超出了我們的預期，因為我們從美國的價格優化和每週訂閱中看到的收入勢頭繼續顯現。

Tinder direct revenue was up 11% year-over-year at $509 million in Q3. We Tinder RPP was up 18% year-over-year at $16.28 due to the U.S. price optimizations and weekly packages. In the U.S., Tinder RPP was up 42% year-over-year. Tinder's U.S. price increases and the rollout of weekly subscriptions in the U.S. and a handful of key international markets have played an important role in accelerating revenue growth as the year has gone on. These optimizations have increased RPP dramatically and have clearly been revenue-enhancing at Tinder. However, they've also had impact on Tinder's payer count this year.

第三季 Tinder 直接營收年增 11% 至 5.09 億美元。由於美國價格優化和每週套餐，We Tinder RPP 年比成長 18% 至 16.28 美元。在美國，Tinder RPP 年成長 42%。今年以來，Tinder 在美國的價格上漲以及在美國和幾個主要國際市場推出的每週訂閱服務在加速收入成長方面發揮了重要作用。這些優化極大地提高了 RPP，並且顯然增加了 Tinder 的收入。然而，它們也對今年 Tinder 的付費用戶數量產生了影響。

Q3 Tinder payers declined 6% year-over-year to 10.4 million, largely due to the U.S. price increases. Tinder payers were down by 56,000 sequentially in Q3 and as weekly subscribers in the U.S. rolled off, partially offset by the addition of weekly subscribers in several key international markets. The sequential impact on Q3 payers from U.S. pricing optimizations was modest and far less than in Q2 as the majority of U.S. members had already been subject to the higher pricing.

第三季 Tinder 付費用戶年減 6% 至 1,040 萬，主要原因是美國價格上漲。第三季度，Tinder 付費用戶環比減少 56,000 人，美國每週訂閱用戶數量減少，但幾個主要國際市場每週訂閱用戶的增加部分抵消了這一影響。美國定價優化對第三季度付款人的連續影響不大，遠小於第二季度，因為大多數美國會員已經受到更高定價的影響。

Tinder top-of-funnel trends, which include new registrations and reactivations of lapsed users, weakened slightly in Q3. Tinder pulled back on some It Starts With a Swipe brand marketing spend in late July and early August, electing to concentrate efforts on several key marketing initiatives in the back-to-college season in late August and September, which affected top-of-funnel trends in Q3.

Tinder 漏斗頂部趨勢（包括新註冊和流失用戶的重新激活）在第三季略有減弱。 Tinder 在 7 月底和 8 月初縮減了部分 It Starts With a Swipe 品牌行銷支出，選擇將精力集中在 8 月底和 9 月返校季節的幾項關鍵行銷舉措上，這影響了漏斗頂部第三季度的趨勢。

In the U.S., new users were down 6% year-over-year in September compared to June when they were down 2% year-over-year. That said, over that same period, new users consisting of women 18 to 29 years old did not see the same step back, demonstrating the impact of Tinder's sharper focus on younger women.

在美國，9 月新用戶年減 6%，而 6 月則較去年同期下降 2%。儘管如此，在同一時期，由 18 至 29 歲女性組成的新用戶並沒有出現同樣的退步，這表明 Tinder 更加關注年輕女性所產生的影響。

Our Hinge brand continues to perform exceptionally well. Hinge grew direct revenue 44% year-over-year, a 9-point acceleration over Q2. Hinge experienced strong user growth in both core English-speaking markets and its European expansion markets, leading to 37% year-over-year download growth in Q3. Hinge Q3 payers were up 33% year-over-year at over 1.3 million while RPP of nearly $27 was up over 8% year-over-year again in Q3.

我們的 Hinge 品牌持續表現出色。 Hinge 直接營收年增 44%，比第二季成長 9 個百分點。 Hinge 在核心英語市場及其歐洲擴展市場的用戶成長強勁，第三季下載量較去年同期成長 37%。 Hinge 第三季付款人年增 33%，超過 130 萬，而 RPP 近 27 美元，第三季再次年增超過 8%。

Our Match Group Asia business saw direct revenue decline 5% year-over-year to $77 million in Q3, but it was up 2% FX neutral. At Hyperconnect, Azar grew direct revenue 20% year-over-year as implementation of a new AI-driven matching algorithm continued to drive meaningful increases in engagement and conversion. While Azar has been a real bright spot, Hakuna and Pairs saw year-over-year direct revenue declines in Q3. The Japanese market continues to experience subpar user growth, although we have seen some recent improvement as a result of the new TV ad campaigns.

我們的 Match Group 亞洲業務第三季的直接營收年減 5% 至 7,700 萬美元，但在匯率中性因素下成長了 2%。在 Hyperconnect，由於新的人工智慧驅動匹配演算法的實施繼續推動參與度和轉換率的顯著增長，Azar 的直接收入同比增長了 20%。雖然 Azar 一直是一個真正的亮點，但 Hakuna 和 Pairs 在第三季度的直接收入比去年同期下降。儘管我們最近因為新的電視廣告活動而看到了一些改善，但日本市場的用戶成長仍然低於平均水平。

At our Evergreen and Emerging Brands, direct revenue declines moderated to 3% year-over-year, which was a notable improvement compared to Q2, which itself was better than Q1. Indirect revenue was $15 million in Q3, up 3% year-over-year, driven by an increase in ad impressions.

在我們的常青品牌和新興品牌中，直接營收年減幅度放緩至 ​​3%，與第二季相比有了顯著改善，而第二季本身也比第一季好。第三季間接營收為 1,500 萬美元，年增 3%，這主要得益於廣告展示次數的增加。

Q3 adjusted operating income, or AOI, was $333 million after just surpassing $300 million for the first time ever last quarter. It was up 17% year-over-year, representing a margin of 38%, up 3 points year-over-year. Operating income was up 16% year-over-year to $244 million in Q3 for a margin of 28%, up 2 points year-over-year.

第三季調整後營業收入 (AOI) 為 3.33 億美元，上季首次超過 3 億美元。年成長17%，利潤率為38%，較去年成長3個百分點。第三季營業收入年增 16%，達到 2.44 億美元，利潤率為 28%，年增 2 個百分點。

Overall expenses, including SBC expense, were up 7% year-over-year in Q3 but down 2 points as a percent of total revenue. Cost of revenue, including SBC expense grew 3% year-over-year and represented 29% of total revenue, down 2 points year-over-year as live streaming costs declined $6 million year-over-year. App store fees increased $19 million year-over-year, 0.5 point as a percentage of total revenue. The quarter included a final $3 million escrow payment to Google in July.

第三季的整體支出（包括 SBC 支出）年增 7%，但佔總收入的百分比下降了 2 個百分點。包括SBC費用在內的營收成本年增3%，佔總營收的29%，年減2個百分點，因為直播成本較去年同期下降了600萬美元。應用程式商店費用年增 1,900 萬美元，佔總收入的百分比增加 0.5 個百分點。該季度包括 7 月向 Google 支付的最後 300 萬美元託管付款。

Selling and marketing costs, including SBC expense increased $24 million or 18% year-over-year, primarily due to increased spend at Tinder and at Hinge as it continued to expand internationally, offset by lower spending at multiple other brands. Selling and marketing spend was up 1 point as a percent of total revenue at 17%.

包括 SBC 費用在內的銷售和行銷成本同比增加 2,400 萬美元，即 18%，這主要是由於 Tinder 和 Hinge 的支出增加，因為該公司繼續國際擴張，但被多個其他品牌的支出減少所抵消。銷售和行銷支出佔總收入的百分比上升了 1 個百分點，達到 17%。

G&A costs, including SBC expense declined 6% year-over-year and dropped 2 points as a percentage of total revenue to 12% as legal and professional fees declined by $9 million year-over-year.

由於法律和專業費用年減 900 萬美元，包括 SBC 費用在內的 G&A 成本年減 6%，佔總收入的百分比下降 2 個百分點至 12%。

Product development costs, including SBC expense, grew 7% year-over-year, primarily as a result of higher compensation expense due to increased headcount at Hinge and were flat as a percentage of total revenue at 11%.

產品開發成本（包括 SBC 費用）年增 7%，主要是由於 Hinge 員工人數增加導致薪酬費用增加，但佔總收入的比例持平，為 11%。

Depreciation was up 62% year-over-year or $7 million to $17 million, primarily due to an increase in internally developed software placed in service.

折舊年增 62%，即 700 萬至 1700 萬美元，主要是由於投入使用的內部開發軟體的增加。

Interest expense increased $4 million or 10% year-over-year in Q3 to $40 million, primarily due to higher interest costs due to the floating rate structure of our term loan, while interest income increased $7 million, given higher rates we're earning on our cash balances.

第三季利息支出增加 400 萬美元，年增 10%，達到 4,000 萬美元，主要是由於我們的定期貸款浮動利率結構導致利息成本增加，而利息收入增加了 700 萬美元，因為我們的利率較高我們的現金餘額。

Our gross leverage was 3.3x trailing AOI, and net leverage was 2.7x at the end of Q3, below our target of less than 3x. We ended the quarter with $713 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on hand.

截至第三季末，我們的總槓桿率為 3.3 倍，追蹤 AOI，淨槓桿率為 2.7 倍，低於我們低於 3 倍的目標。截至本季末，我們手頭現金、現金等價物和短期投資為 7.13 億美元。

During the early part of the quarter, we repurchased 6.7 million of our common shares at an average price of approximately $45 per share, totaling approximately $300 million. Through September 30, 2023, we have reduced outstanding shares by 2.8% from our beginning of the year share count, net of shares issued under employee equity programs. We now have $667 million remaining on our $1 billion share buyback program, providing ample ability to continue to buy back shares.

在本季初期，我們以每股約 45 美元的平均價格回購了 670 萬股普通股，總計約 3 億美元。截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日，我們已將流通股數量較年初減少了 2.8%（扣除根據員工股權計畫發行的股票）。目前，我們 10 億美元的股票回購計畫還剩 6.67 億美元，為繼續回購股票提供了充足的能力。

As we discussed in the letter, the company has minimal capital expenditures and significant free cash flow generation. We disclosed in May that we intend to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders via buyback or other means. We intend to use the remainder of our free cash flow, first, to invest in our businesses, which continues to be the best way to drive shareholder value as we have shown with newly incubated apps like Chispa, BLK and now Archer as well as with various new product initiatives.

正如我們在信中討論的那樣，該公司的資本支出最少，但自由現金流量卻很大。我們在 5 月披露，我們打算透過回購或其他方式將至少 50% 的自由現金流返還給股東。我們打算先使用剩餘的自由現金流來投資我們的業務，這仍然是推動股東價值的最佳方式，正如我們透過新孵化的應用程式（如 Chispa、BLK 和現在的 Archer）以及與各種新產品舉措。

We're confident we're funding the right new bets through our P&L. But M&A has always been a meaningful component of our strategy as well, and we intend to maintain financial flexibility to pursue M&A as a second use of free cash flow. I want to emphasize though that the bar for M&A is high, and we expect acquisitions will be in our category or near adjacent and consistent with our stated mission or of tech capabilities that we need to help accelerate delivery of our mission. If we do not find compelling acquisition opportunities, we expect to return the remaining excess capital to shareholders as well.

我們有信心透過我們的損益表為正確的新賭注提供資金。但併購也一直是我們策略的重要組成部分，我們打算保持財務靈活性，將併購作為自由現金流的第二次用途。我想強調的是，併購的門檻很高，我們預期收購將屬於我們的類別或接近鄰近的類別，並符合我們既定的使命或我們需要幫助加速實現我們的使命的技術能力。如果我們沒有找到令人信服的收購機會，我們預計也會將剩餘的多餘資本回饋給股東。

Turning to our financial outlook for Q4 '23. We expect total revenue for Match Group of $855 million to $865 million, up 9% to 10% year-over-year. This range reflects $27 million more of FX headwinds than we had anticipated at the time of our last earnings call as well as risk that our brands will not generate a portion of the approximately $7 million quarterly revenue that we derive from Israel, given the ongoing events there.

轉向我們對 23 年第 4 季的財務展望。我們預計 Match Group 的總營收為 8.55 億至 8.65 億美元，年增 9% 至 10%。這個範圍反映了比我們上次財報電話會議時預期多 2700 萬美元的外匯逆風，以及考慮到正在發生的事件，我們的品牌將無法產生我們來自以色列的約 700 萬美元季度收入的一部分的風險那裡。

It also reflects approximately $3 million less than we previously expected because of trends we are seeing in our ad sales business, where we've seen a number of advertisers delay or pull scheduled Q4 campaigns. Also note that Q4 tends to be a weaker quarter sequentially than Q3 as data start to focus on the holiday season in November and December. We expect FX to be less than a 1-point year-over-year headwind in Q4. That said, we continue to expect significant FX volatility as we've seen over the past 3 months.

它也反映出比我們之前的預期少了約 300 萬美元，因為我們在廣告銷售業務中看到了趨勢，我們看到許多廣告商推遲或取消了預定的第四季度廣告活動。另請注意，由於數據開始關注 11 月和 12 月的假期季節，第四季度往往比第三季度表現疲軟。我們預計第四季外匯逆風將小於 1 個百分點。儘管如此，我們仍預期外匯將出現大幅波動，正如過去三個月所看到的那樣。

At Tinder, we expect direct revenue to be up approximately 11% year-over-year in Q4, a second consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year direct revenue growth and, again, reflecting seasonal trends. We expect FX to be less than a 1-point year-over-year headwind. Our outlook attempts to factor in the likely impacts of a weakening consumer as well as the resumption of U.S. student loan repayments on Tinder's more discretionary à la carte revenue.

在 Tinder，我們預計第四季度的直接收入將同比增長約 11%，這是連續第二個季度實現兩位數的同比直接收入增長，並且再次反映了季節性趨勢。我們預期外匯的年比逆風將小於 1 個百分點。我們的前景試圖考慮消費者疲軟以及美國學生貸款償還的恢復對 Tinder 更可自由支配的單點收入可能產生的影響。

We expect Tinder RPP to increase year-over-year in Q4 at slightly greater levels than in Q3 and Tinder payers to decline slightly more year-over-year than in Q3. The additional year-over-year payer decline reflects the late summer weakness in Tinder's new user and reactivation trends.

我們預計第四季度 Tinder RPP 的年增幅將略高於第三季度，而 Tinder 付款人的年減幅度將略高於第三季度。付費用戶的同比進一步下降反映了夏末 Tinder 新用戶和重新激活趨勢的疲軟。

In Q4, we expect Tinder's sequential payer count to be negatively impacted as weekly package subscribers continue to fall out of the payer count but without the offsetting benefit of the initial rollouts of weekly packages in large markets that we had in Q2 and Q3. We estimate this to be more than a 200,000 negative sequential impact to payers.

在第四季度，我們預計Tinder 的連續付款人數量將受到負面影響，因為每週套餐訂閱者繼續從付款人數量中減少，但不會抵消我們在第二季度和第三季度在大型市場首次推出每週套餐帶來的好處。我們估計這將對付款人造成超過 20 萬次負面連續影響。

We expect Hinge to deliver meaningfully accelerating year-over-year direct revenue growth again in Q4, driven by continued strong performance in English-speaking markets, continued European expansion and various monetization initiatives. We remain confident that Hinge's momentum will lead it to deliver approximately $400 million of direct revenue in 2023.

我們預計，在英語市場持續強勁表現、歐洲持續擴張和各種貨幣化舉措的推動下，Hinge 將在第四季度再次實現同比直接收入顯著加速增長。我們仍然相信，Hinge 的勢頭將使其在 2023 年實現約 4 億美元的直接收入。

We expect MG Asia direct revenue to be down mid-single digits year-over-year in Q4. We expect similar year-over-year direct revenue growth rates for Hyperconnect and Pairs in Q4 as in Q3.

我們預計 MG Asia 第四季的直接收入將年減中個位數。我們預期第四季 Hyperconnect 和 Pairs 的直接營收年增率與第三季相似。

We expect our Evergreen & Emerging Brands direct revenue to decline mid-single digits year-over-year in Q4, with continued strong growth at the Emerging Brands. We expect indirect revenue to be down modestly year-over-year in Q4 given the weakening ad demand, with advertisers pulling or delaying several campaigns.

我們預計第四季長青和新興品牌的直接收入將年減中個位數，而新興品牌將持續強勁成長。鑑於廣告需求疲軟，廣告商取消或推遲了多項廣告活動，我們預計第四季度間接收入將同比小幅下降。

We expect AOI of $305 million to $310 million in Q4, representing year-over-year growth of 7% to 9% and margin of 36% at the midpoints of the ranges. We expect overall marketing spend to increase modestly year-over-year in Q4, with a meaningful increase at Tinder and some of our newer growth apps, including Archer and The League.

我們預計第四季度的 AOI 為 3.05 億美元至 3.1 億美元，年增 7% 至 9%，利潤率為 36%，處於該範圍的中點。我們預計第四季度的整體行銷支出將比去年小幅成長，其中 Tinder 和我們的一些新成長應用程式（包括 Archer 和 The League）將出現有意義的成長。

For full year 2023, Match Group is on pace to achieve approximately 5% top line growth and deliver slightly better AOI margins than we did in 2022, consistent with our recent expectations. Our Q4 and full year 2023 results do not include the impact of the settlement with Google that was reached yesterday.

2023 年全年，Match Group 預計將實現約 5% 的營收成長，並提供比 2022 年略高的 AOI 利潤率，這與我們最近的預期一致。我們的第四季和 2023 年全年業績不包括昨天與Google達成的和解的影響。

We expect to enter 2024 with momentum to deliver 10% plus year-over-year total revenue growth early in the year. The most critical component to maintaining that level of revenue growth for the full year will be the ability of Tinder's ongoing marketing and product initiatives to deliver as the impacts of the '23 optimizations anniversary.

我們預計進入 2024 年，年初總收入將實現 10% 以上的年增長。維持全年營收成長水準的最關鍵因素是 Tinder 持續的行銷和產品計畫能否發揮 23 週年優化的影響力。

At the moment, we feel confident in the team's execution and believe the most likely outcome is for full year '24 year-over-year total revenue growth in the high single digits. But we want to allow Tinder's execution momentum to build for another quarter before pinpointing a precise '24 year-over-year total revenue growth expectation.

目前，我們對團隊的執行充滿信心，並相信最有可能的結果是 24 年全年總收入實現高個位數成長。但我們希望讓 Tinder 的執行動能再持續一個季度，然後再精確地確定「24 年總營收年成長預期」。

We also want to continue to monitor the volatile macro environment to assess that impact on our outlook. These factors could drive our revenue growth outlook positively or negatively. We've assumed FX to be a 2-point headwind for full year '24 total revenue growth, but that also could change materially given current macro conditions.

我們也希望繼續監測不穩定的宏觀環境，以評估其對我們前景的影響。這些因素可能會積極或消極地推動我們的收入成長前景。我們假設外匯對 2024 年全年總收入成長構成 2 個百分點的阻力，但考慮到當前的宏觀狀況，這種情況也可能發生重大變化。

We believe we can deliver AOI margins at least at the same level as we expect to deliver in '23. There are a few anticipated margin headwinds that are out of our control, including app store fees and compliance costs related to the EU's Digital Services Act. There is also some uncertainty around digital services taxes in certain markets such as Canada, which would affect AOI. We have attempted to incorporate the impact of the Google settlement into our '24 margin outlook.

我們相信，我們能夠實現 AOI 利潤率至少與我們預期在 23 年實現的水平相同。有一些預期的利潤阻力是我們無法控制的，包括應用程式商店費用和與歐盟數位服務法案相關的合規成本。在加拿大等某些市場，數位服務稅也存在一些不確定性，這將影響 AOI。我們試圖將Google和解協議的影響納入我們 24 年的利潤展望中。

We are currently deep in our planning process for '24. We're contemplating investments in innovation and particularly in AI to drive new sources of monetization, resolve user pain points to increase our products' value and potentially build new apps that can deepen our TAM penetration. We're also carefully analyzing the appropriate level of marketing spend to drive user growth at Tinder, Hinge and some of our newer apps. We expect spend reductions in other areas to help offset the impact of increased spend in these areas. We also expect to limit hiring to positions that are vital to driving growth.

我們目前正在深入 '24 的規劃過程。我們正在考慮投資創新，特別是人工智慧，以推動新的貨幣化來源，解決用戶痛點以增加我們產品的價值，並有可能建立新的應用程式來加深我們的 TAM 滲透率。我們也正在仔細分析適當的行銷支出水平，以推動 Tinder、Hinge 和一些較新應用程式的用戶成長。我們預計其他領域支出的減少將有助於抵消這些領域支出增加的影響。我們也預計將招募限制在對推動成長至關重要的職位上。

Our current expectation is for Tinder to deliver direct revenue growth in the high single-digit range next year through a combination of RPP growth and improving year-over-year payer growth throughout the year. We expect the non-Tinder brands to collectively deliver direct revenue growth in the high single-digit range in '24. At Hinge, we expect similar year-over-year direct revenue growth as in '23 in excess of 35% and a continued focus on driving share gains in its core and European markets.

我們目前的預期是，透過 RPP 成長和全年付費用戶年成長的改善，Tinder 明年將實現高個位數的直接收入成長。我們預計非 Tinder 品牌將在 2024 年共同實現高個位數的直接收入成長。在 Hinge，我們預計直接收入年增率與 23 年類似，超過 35%，並繼續專注於推動其核心和歐洲市場的份額成長。

We're pleased by the momentum we've seen in the business over the past 2 quarters. It is the result of a lot of hard work from many people across the portfolio. We're confident that this momentum will carry into 2024. Importantly, our setup entering next year is much better than it was for 2023. While we're happy with the progress, there is still a lot to do, especially at Tinder, where delivering stronger user trends and sustained payer and revenue growth is paramount and in product innovation across the portfolio, particularly in harnessing AI capabilities to increase adoption of our products and drive higher monetization.

我們對過去兩個季度的業務成長勢頭感到高興。這是整個投資組合中許多人辛勤工作的成果。我們有信心這種勢頭將延續到 2024 年。重要的是，我們進入明年的設置比 2023 年要好得多。雖然我們對進展感到滿意，但仍有很多工作要做，特別是在 Tinder，提供更強勁的用戶趨勢以及持續的付款人和收入成長對於整個產品組合的產品創新至關重要，特別是在利用人工智慧功能來提高我們產品的採用率並推動更高的貨幣化方面。

With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

然後，我會要求接線員開通提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from John Blackledge of TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 John Blackledge。

Gary, maybe could you discuss further kind of the puts and takes of your initial view on the '24 revenue growth and margin assumptions?

加里，也許您可以進一步討論一下您對 24 年收入成長和利潤率假設的初步看法嗎？

Sure, John. Let me give it a shot at unpacking some of that for you in a little more detail. I think on the revenue side, the biggest kind of swing factor for 2024 performance is really, of course, related to Tinder, how well the execution continues to be, how much delivery of growth Tinder delivers in 2024. And as we've talked about many times, we feel really good about how the team is executing the product velocity, the marketing initiatives. And so we've been planning for this for a while, and we are aware that Tinder needs to deliver in 2024 on both top of funnel and on improving payer conversion and overall payers and revenue. And so that is probably the biggest swing factor as we look at the 2024 revenue guidance.

當然，約翰。讓我嘗試更詳細地為您解開其中的一些內容。我認為在收入方面，2024 年業績的最大波動因素當然與 Tinder 有關，執行情況如何，Tinder 在 2024 年實現了多少增長。正如我們所說很多時候，我們對團隊如何執行產品速度和行銷計劃感到非常滿意。因此，我們為此計劃已經有一段時間了，我們知道 Tinder 需要在 2024 年在頻道頂部實現交付，並提高付款人轉換率以及整體付款人和收入。因此，當我們審視 2024 年收入指引時，這可能是最大的波動因素。

The second factor that I would point to, and we called it out, is the macro environment. We're particularly monitoring Tinder on that front because there's a lot of younger users there with less disposable income. There's a lot of à la carte revenue at Tinder, which tends to be a more discretionary purchase. And so we're watching to see what happens in the economies globally as we turn the corner in '24. We know the consumer has held on well this point, but we're increasingly nervous about what's to come in the months ahead. And we're factoring that into our thoughts on outlook for '24 revenue as well.

我要指出的第二個因素是宏觀環境，我們也指出了這一點。我們在這方面特別關注 Tinder，因為那裡有許多年輕用戶，可支配收入較少。 Tinder 上有很多單點收入，這往往是一種更隨興的購買。因此，當我們進入 24 年時，我們正在關注全球經濟會發生什麼。我們知道消費者已經牢牢抓住了這一點，但我們對未來幾個月會發生的事情越來越感到緊張。我們也將這一點納入我們對 24 年收入前景的看法中。

And then you've got the events in the Middle East, the horrific events going on in the Middle East that we're obviously monitoring very closely as well. We quantified the impact of that on our fourth quarter but obviously much more challenging to get visibility on what's going to happen across the Middle East and what the impact is going to be on our business specifically, which is obviously a more minor concern. But nonetheless, something we're trying to factor in as we think about '24.

然後是中東發生的事件，中東正在發生的可怕事件，我們顯然也在密切關注。我們量化了這一事件對第四季度的影響，但顯然要了解中東地區將要發生的事情以及具體對我們業務的影響更具挑戰性，這顯然是一個更次要的問題。但儘管如此，當我們思考「24」時，我們還是試著將這一點考慮在內。

And then last but sort of relatedly to the economy and what's going on in the Middle East as well is what happens with FX rates. We use the forward curve to predict the FX impact for the coming year. And we've done so again this year. But as we've seen consistently and repeatedly, the forward curve tends to be not always the best predictor of actually what's to come, and there's been a lot of a volatility in FX rates. And I think it's fair to assume that, that volatility is going to continue as we go forward. And so that's another swing factor on our 2024 revenue growth outlook.

最後但與經濟和中東正在發生的事情有關的是匯率的變化。我們使用遠期曲線來預測來年的外匯影響。今年我們又這樣做了。但正如我們不斷反覆看到的那樣，遠期曲線往往並不總是實際未來情況的最佳預測指標，而且外匯匯率波動很大。我認為可以公平地假設，隨著我們的前進，波動性將持續下去。因此，這是我們 2024 年營收成長前景的另一個影響因素。

I think those are the biggest ones. Obviously, there are others, but I would call those out. On the margin side, which you asked about, in addition to the contribution from Tinder, I mentioned that we're analyzing the incremental marketing spend at Hinge at some of our newer growth businesses like Archer and The League and also at Tinder. I think we will have some guardrails on the increased marketing spend at Tinder. I don't see that being more than a point or 2 of revenue next year incrementally, but it's something that we're analyzing as we go through our planning process, and we'll have more of an update as we get into the early part of next year.

我認為這些是最大的。顯然，還有其他人，但我會指出這些。在你問到的利潤方面，除了 Tinder 的貢獻之外，我提到我們正在分析 Hinge 在我們的一些新增長業務（如 Archer 和 The League）以及 Tinder 上的增量行銷支出。我認為我們會對 Tinder 增加的行銷支出採取一些措施。我認為明年的收入增量不會超過一兩個百分點，但這是我們在規劃過程中正在分析的內容，當我們進入早期階段時，我們將獲得更多更新明年的一部分。

But we do recognize that we need to continue to build the brand narrative of Tinder and to supplement the viral growth with marketing, as B.K. talked about in his remarks. And I think that we can offset the incremental marketing spend at Tinder, should we choose to do that, with reductions elsewhere across the portfolio, which is something that we've been doing through the course of '23.

但我們確實認識到，我們需要繼續打造 Tinder 的品牌敘事，並透過行銷來補充病毒式成長，正如 B.K.他在講話中談到。我認為，如果我們選擇這樣做，我們可以抵消 Tinder 增量行銷支出，並減少整個投資組合中的其他方面的支出，這是我們在 23 年期間一直在做的事情。

And then last, I would point to innovation, which I called out in my remarks as well. We think it's critically important that we make the proper level of investments in innovation to drive more users into the brands and to increase the value of our products to the users. We think that AI is really providing us with a once-in-a-decade opportunity to do that, and we want to make sure that we harness that opportunity and make the right level of investments in AI.

最後，我要指出創新，我在發言中也提到了這一點。我們認為，在創新方面進行適當的投資以吸引更多用戶進入品牌並增加我們產品對用戶的價值至關重要。我們認為人工智慧確實為我們提供了十年一次的機會來做到這一點，我們希望確保我們利用這個機會並對人工智慧進行適當的投資。

We're still trying to calibrate what that means in terms of hiring, in terms of adding capabilities. We want to do this in a disciplined way, and we're cognizant that we're still very early on in AI and what it requires and what the opportunity is. So we want to calibrate this properly, and it's something that we're carefully doing, and we'll have more on that as well as we sort of make some final determinations and provide a more detailed outlook in February for 2024.

我們仍在努力調整這對招募和增加能力的意義。我們希望以一種有紀律的方式做到這一點，並且我們認識到我們在人工智慧及其需求和機會方面仍處於早期階段。因此，我們希望對此進行適當校準，這是我們正在認真做的事情，我們將對此進行更多了解，並做出一些最終決定，並在 2 月提供 2024 年更詳細的展望。

But I would say the marketing investments, the AI investments are the 2 biggest kind of "swing factors" on margins that I would point to for '24. So I hope that's helpful and answered your question with a little more detail.

但我想說，行銷投資和人工智慧投資是我在 24 年指出的利潤率的兩大「搖擺因素」。所以我希望這對您有所幫助，並更詳細地回答您的問題。

The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

Okay. Could you please provide a high-level overview of the top-of-mind product and future investment areas for Tinder that you think will have a maximum impact on payer growth next year?

好的。您能否簡要概述您認為將對明年付款人成長產生最大影響的 Tinder 首要產品和未來投資領域？

Thanks, Shweta, for that question. I can take that one. There's a lot going on with our Tinder team, and this is our daily grind, but we continue to evolve the product experience that resonates with our users, and we're continually listening to what Gen Z says and want out of our product, and we had to daily continue to improve our experience and surprise and delight our daters.

謝謝 Shweta 提出這個問題。我可以接受那個。我們的 Tinder 團隊有很多事情要做，這是我們的日常工作，但我們不斷發展與用戶產生共鳴的產品體驗，我們不斷傾聽 Z 世代對我們產品的看法和需求，我們必須每天繼續改善我們的體驗，讓我們的約會者感到驚訝和高興。

When it comes to payer penetration, in '23, we reset the RPP levels. So we have to be continually mindful of new ways to drive monetization and payer penetration at the same time. So maybe I can give a couple of examples. I see 2 key areas of potential new revenue opportunities at Tinder. Today, our merchandising is very Western-centric. We believe that there are real opportunities in international markets to tweak our monetization approach, to drive more payer penetration by offers and surfacing built specifically for those markets and cultures.

當談到付款人滲透率時，我們在 23 年重置了 RPP 水準。因此，我們必須不斷關注同時推動貨幣化和支付滲透率的新方法。也許我可以舉幾個例子。我認為 Tinder 有兩個潛在的新收入機會的關鍵領域。今天，我們的商品銷售非常以西方為中心。我們相信，國際市場上存在真正的機會來調整我們的貨幣化方法，透過專門針對這些市場和文化構建的優惠和介面來推動更多付款人滲透。

Additionally, like I mentioned earlier, I believe à la carte is another area of focus for us. Our 2 primary ALC products were launched over 7 years ago. So I think now is the perfect time to revisit those and add to the portfolio of ALC products. We've also seen a great success with weekly package operations with our younger users. We believe this can actually -- these learnings can translate well into our ALC offerings, especially with our current economy.

此外，正如我之前提到的，我相信點菜是我們關注的另一個領域。我們的 2 個主要 ALC 產品已於 7 年前推出。因此，我認為現在是重新審視這些產品並將其添加到 ALC 產品組合的最佳時機。我們也看到，針對年輕用戶的每週套餐營運取得了巨大成功。我們相信，這些經驗實際上可以很好地轉化為我們的 ALC 產品，特別是在我們當前的經濟狀況下。

As I mentioned earlier, only 15% of our à la carte users are nonsubscribers. So I think there's actually like a big opportunity for us to drive new payers into our paying ecosystem. Like Gary mentioned, we are in the middle of our 2024 planning, and we plan to share more as we typically do in early 2024. Thanks for the question.

正如我之前提到的，我們的點菜用戶中只有 15% 是非訂閱者。所以我認為我們實際上有一個很大的機會來推動新的付款人進入我們的支付生態系統。正如 Gary 所提到的，我們正處於 2024 年規劃的中期，我們計劃像往常一樣在 2024 年初分享更多內容。感謝您的提問。

The next question comes from Justin Patterson of KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Justin Patterson。

Great. I was hoping you could comment on when you think weekly payers can get back to more normal growth. You alluded to less sequential volatility within the letter, but curious if you have a more (inaudible) there. And then related, as we're a few more months into this now, I would love to hear you comment on just your learnings on accretion and lifetime value from these weekly plans.

偉大的。我希望您能評論一下您何時認為每週付款可以恢復到更正常的增長。您在信中提到了較少的連續波動，但很好奇您是否有更多（聽不清楚）的波動。然後相關的是，由於我們現在還有幾個月的時間，我很想聽聽您對您從這些每週計劃中學到的積累和終身價值進行評論。

I just want to make sure I understood your question, Justin. You asked about weekly payers returning to year-over-year growth or payers more broadly at Tinder?

我只是想確保我理解你的問題，賈斯汀。您詢問了每週付款人恢復同比增長的情況，還是 Tinder 上更廣泛的付款人？

Yes. Sorry, for the confusion there. Payers more broadly since we have the weekly volatility within there and, let's say, assume that's going to normalize sometime next year.

是的。抱歉，造成了混亂。更廣泛的付款人，因為我們每週都有波動，假設明年某個時候會正常化。

Okay. Understood. Thanks for the question. I just want to maybe set a little bit of context before I dive into the specifics of your question. And if I'm not mistaken, I think this is probably my 32nd earnings call and probably on all 31 that have come before this one, I've talked about how the company focuses on revenue growth, not specifically on payer growth or revenue per payer growth. And our goal is to drive sustainable, strong revenue growth through a combination of payer growth and RPP growth.

好的。明白了。謝謝你的提問。在深入探討你的問題的具體細節之前，我只想先介紹一下背景。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為這可能是我的第32 次財報電話會議，並且可能在之前的所有31 次財報電話會議中，我談到了公司如何專注於收入增長，而不是專門關注付款人增長或人均收入。付款人增長。我們的目標是透過付款人成長和 RPP 成長相結合，推動可持續、強勁的收入成長。

And in some years, the product road map tends to be more heavily focused on payer growth. And in some years, the product road map tends to be more focused on RPP growth, and we're somewhat agnostic. I understand that investors prefer to see a better balance between payer growth and RPP growth, and we want to be able to deliver that. And certainly, this year has been outsized on the RPP side versus the payer side. Because of conscious decisions we made, we looked at the level of pricing in the marketplace, and we felt that Tinder had not been price optimizing for the last couple of years, which led to a big opportunity this year to price-optimize in the U.S. market.

在某些年份，產品路線圖往往更關注付款人的成長。在某些年份，產品路線圖往往更關注 RPP 成長，而我們在某種程度上是不可知的。我理解投資者更希望看到付款人成長和 RPP 成長之間更好的平衡，我們希望能夠實現這一點。當然，今年 RPP 方面與付款人方面相比規模過大。由於我們做出了有意識的決定，我們研究了市場的定價水平，我們認為 Tinder 在過去幾年中並未進行價格優化，這為今年在美國進行價格優化帶來了巨大的機會。市場。

And so we did a big focus on making that happen. And you can see in the RPP numbers and particularly in the RPP increase that we've seen in the U.S. that there was significant room to adjust pricing in '23. And we've done that, which has enabled the company to go from 0 or essentially flat revenue a couple of quarters ago to 11% revenue growth at Tinder towards the end of this year and deliver the double-digit revenue growth that we wanted to get to 1 quarter earlier.

因此，我們非常注重實現這一目標。您可以從 RPP 數字中看到，特別是我們在美國看到的 RPP 成長，23 年定價調整的空間很大。我們已經做到了這一點，這使得該公司能夠從幾個季度前的 0 或基本持平的收入增長到今年年底 Tinder 的收入增長 11%，並實現我們希望實現的兩位數收入增長提早1 個季度。

So we feel good that we've hit our revenue goals for the year, and we're well positioned on that front. And so now as we turn our attention to 2024, it's reasonable to assume a more balanced approach between payer growth and revenue per payer growth as we think about the product road map. We've been able to see this for a while now. We've been planning for it. The Tinder team has been working to deliver a better balance. And I think that what you can expect to see is that over the course of the coming quarters, the year-over-year payer growth will gradually improve.

因此，我們對實現今年的收入目標感到很高興，並且我們在這方面處於有利地位。因此，現在當我們將注意力轉向 2024 年時，在考慮產品路線圖時，可以合理地在付款人成長和每位付款人收入成長之間採取更平衡的方法。我們已經看到這一點有一段時間了。我們一直在計劃。 Tinder 團隊一直致力於實現更好的平衡。我認為您可以預期看到的是，在接下來的幾個季度中，付款人的同比增長將逐漸改善。

And so that's what we're assuming in our outlook for next year, and we are positioned to deliver marketing initiatives to improve top of funnel, which is critical to driving payer growth, and product initiatives, which are intended to both drive top of funnel as well as increase payer conversion.

這就是我們對明年展望的假設，我們的定位是提供行銷舉措來改善漏斗頂部，這對於推動付款人成長至關重要，以及產品舉措，旨在推動漏斗頂部以及提高付款人轉換率。

Now just to quantify the impact of the pricing initiatives that we did this year, it probably reduced payers in the U.S. by 500,000. So you can think of it as because the pricing was lower than what was competitively appropriate, the payer count was essentially overstated it by that amount. And so now we've made the adjustments on pricing and that has adjusted the payer number to a lower base that is paying a higher rate, but it's clearly very RPP- and revenue-accretive to the business.

現在，為了量化我們今年採取的定價舉措的影響，美國的付款人可能減少了 50 萬人。因此，您可以將其視為因為定價低於有競爭力的價格，所以付款人數量實質上誇大了該金額。因此，現在我們對定價進行了調整，並將付款人數量調整為支付更高費率的較低基數，但這顯然對企業的 RPP 和收入有很大的促進作用。

And so that is kind of where we've gotten to and what the outlook is from a payer perspective. I know that the weekly subscribers have also introduced some volatility on the payer count, but that's more of a sequential item. And I think that has largely kind of washed out by the end of this year. And then as we get through next year, I think you will have a much more normal payer base from which to grow through marketing and product initiatives.

這就是我們已經達到的目標以及從付款人的角度來看的前景。我知道每週訂閱者也為付款人數量帶來了一些波動，但這更多的是一個連續的項目。我認為到今年年底，這種情況基本上已經消失了。然後，當我們度過明年時，我認為您將擁有一個更正常的支付者基礎，可以透過行銷和產品計劃來實現成長。

And then I think on your question around LTV of the weekly subs, we're confident that not only are the weekly subscribers helpful from a revenue accretion standpoint and an RPP standpoint, but that they are positive on an LTV basis. We've been monitoring the renewal rates and the resubscription rates of these subscribers, and that's been meeting or even exceeding our expectations. And so we think that this is a long-term win. It's not some short-term thing that we've done. It's clearly a long-term healthy thing to do for the ecosystem, and we're confident of it.

然後我認為，關於您關於每週訂閱者的生命週期價值的問題，我們相信，每週訂閱者不僅從收入增長的角度和RPP 的角度來看有幫助，而且在生命週期價值的基礎上也是積極的。我們一直在監控這些訂閱者的續訂率和重新訂閱率，這符合甚至超出了我們的預期。所以我們認為這是一個長期的勝利。這不是我們所做的短期事情。這顯然對生態系統來說是一件長期健康的事情，我們對此充滿信心。

And as I think you probably know, we've tested weekly subscribers on other brands of ours. So it's not just at Tinder. We've been testing them for a while, I think, more than a year at some of our smaller brands. And the metrics that we've seen there are consistent with what we're seeing at Tinder. So we now have a lot of data around resubscriptions and renewal rates, and we're confident in our understanding of the LTV of these subscribers and the fact that it's a positive LTV. And it's, frankly, meeting a need, as B.K. said, for what younger users want. They're comfortable with the higher-priced but lower-duration packages. And so that's what we're delivering, and we think that's always a positive for the business.

我想您可能知道，我們已經對我們其他品牌的每週訂閱者進行了測試。所以這不僅僅是在 Tinder 上。我們已經對它們進行了一段時間的測試，我想，在我們的一些小品牌上已經測試了一年多了。我們在那裡看到的指標與我們在 Tinder 上看到的指標一致。因此，我們現在擁有大量有關重新訂閱和續訂率的數據，並且我們對我們對這些訂閱者的 LTV 的理解以及它是正 LTV 的事實充滿信心。坦白說，它滿足了需求，正如 B.K.說，針對年輕用戶想要的東西。他們對價格較高但期限較短的套餐感到滿意。這就是我們正在提供的服務，我們認為這對業務始終是積極的。

The next question comes from Cory Carpenter of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的科里·卡彭特。

Can you expand on your decision to settle the Google lawsuit before trial, just how you think about this outcome for Match?

您能否詳細闡述您在審判前解決 Google 訴訟的決定，以及您如何看待 Match 的這一結果？

And then more specifically, Gary, could you talk about the financial impact embedded in your 2024 outlook from this?

蓋瑞，更具體地說，您能談談您對 2024 年展望的財務影響嗎？

Sure. So first of all, I would say that we're pleased with the outcome of the settlement. Getting the litigation resolved from our perspective is a good thing. There's always uncertainty when you're going into a trial, and we feel good that we've been able to provide shareholders with certainty around this topic for at least the next few years. And more importantly, we've been able to provide our users with a choice of billing, which is something that we have consistently said is critical to our users, something that we want to be able to provide. And we're happy that we have the opportunity now to provide user choice billing to our consumer base. So we think that's a real positive.

當然。首先，我想說我們對和解結果感到滿意。從我們的角度來看，解決訴訟是件好事。當你進行審判時總是存在不確定性，我們很高興至少在未來幾年內能夠為股東提供有關該主題的確定性。更重要的是，我們已經能夠為用戶提供計費選擇，我們一直認為這對我們的用戶至關重要，也是我們希望能夠提供的。我們很高興現在有機會為我們的消費者群提供用戶選擇計費服務。所以我們認為這是一個真正的正面因素。

Now unfortunately, the terms of the settlement are confidential. So there's not a ton of detail that we can go into. But let me try to unpack some of the pieces for you. And if you go back all the way to October of 2021, that's where Google wanted to start implementing the change in their billing policies. And we're sitting here now more than 2 years later, effectively. And Google had asked us to escrow $40 million against the incremental costs from October '21 through the lawsuit. And as part of the settlement, we basically said -- we basically agreed that we won't owe amounts prior to the end of this year. And so what that means is everything that we've been processing on credit cards for the last 2-plus years, there's no incremental fees owed.

不幸的是，現在和解條款是保密的。所以我們沒有太多可以討論的細節。但讓我嘗試為您解開其中的一些部分。如果你一直追溯到 2021 年 10 月，谷歌希望從那時開始實施計費政策的變化。兩年多後，我們現在坐在這裡，實際上。 Google 也要求我們透過訴訟託管 4000 萬美元，以應對 21 年 10 月以來的增量成本。作為和解協議的一部分，我們基本上說——我們基本上同意在今年年底之前我們不會欠款。這意味著我們在過去兩年多的時間裡透過信用卡處理的一切，都沒有欠下增量費用。

And I think if you go back to our earnings release in May of 2022, we estimated that the change in policy was probably about a $6 million per month cost. And so you can probably do the math on those savings over that period of time that I just enumerated. So that's clear value. We don't owe any more money, and we're getting back to $40 million. So that's how we calculate the initial piece of value.

我認為，如果你回顧我們在 2022 年 5 月發布的財報，我們估計政策變化的成本可能約為每月 600 萬美元。因此，您可能可以計算出我剛才列舉的那段時間節省的費用。所以這是明確的價值。我們不再欠錢了，我們的欠款又回到了 4000 萬美元。這就是我們計算初始價值的方式。

And then there's the second piece of value, which is the ongoing arrangement that we're entering into with Google, a new partnership with Google across their myriad services, which includes distribution, includes marketing, includes cloud services. It includes other things that we do with them. So it's a broad partnership.

然後是第二個價值，這是我們正在與Google達成的持續安排，與Google在其眾多服務方面建立新的合作夥伴關係，其中包括分銷、行銷、雲端服務。它包括我們用它們做的其他事情。所以這是一個廣泛的合作夥伴關係。

And basically, the settlement agreement -- the new partnership agreement says that we will implement user choice billing. We will pay the fees that are required under that policy, which is 11% and 26%. And as a result of the new broad partnership, we're going to get benefits such that we essentially offset the impact of the implementation of user choice billing. And so we view that as largely neutral in the '24, '25 and '26 period, and we'll kind of go from there.

基本上，和解協議——新的合作夥伴協議表明我們將實施用戶選擇計費。我們將支付該政策規定的費用，即 11% 和 26%。由於新的廣泛合作夥伴關係，我們將獲得好處，從而從根本上抵消實施用戶選擇計費的影響。因此，我們認為這在 24 年、25 年和 26 年期間基本上是中性的，我們將從那裡開始。

As you also, I'm sure, know and asked about, there's a lot of changes afoot on the regulatory front, on the legal front related to app store policies. There's frequently decisions coming down that basically question the fairness of the current policies. And so as a result of that, we think it's likely that over time, there will be more change to the app store ecosystem. Importantly, we haven't assumed any changes in our financial outlook for 2024 as a result of any regulatory or legal actions. But I think it's fair to assume that over time, there will be some, and so we'll quantify those at the appropriate time.

我相信您也知道並詢問過，與應用程式商店政策相關的監管方面和法律方面正在發生很多變化。常常會出現一些基本上質疑當前政策公平性的決定。因此，我們認為隨著時間的推移，應用商店生態系統可能會發生更多變化。重要的是，我們並未假設 2024 年的財務前景因任何監管或法律行動而發生任何變化。但我認為可以公平地假設，隨著時間的推移，將會出現一些問題，因此我們將在適當的時間對這些問題進行量化。

But we certainly expect to get the benefits of whatever changes occur in whatever jurisdictions globally they occur in, and they're occurring in a lot of jurisdictions. So that's something that we're continuing to watch and we'll continue to monitor and discuss with you as things evolve.

但我們當然希望從全球任何司法管轄區發生的任何變化中獲益，而這些變化正在許多司法管轄區發生。因此，這是我們將繼續關注的事情，隨著事情的發展，我們將繼續監控並與您討論。

I'd like to add a couple more points, and Gary, that was a great summary of where we are. I feel now that we're -- like today starting and going forward, feel like we're in a good place with Google, and it really reduces the amount of distraction that we've had as a team, and we can really focus together on growth.

我想補充幾點，加里，這是對我們現狀的一個很好的總結。我覺得現在我們——就像今天開始並繼續前進一樣，感覺我們與谷歌處於一個很好的位置，它確實減少了我們作為一個團隊所受到的干擾，我們可以真正集中精力共同成長。

I view this as a reset of our relationship, and it helps our partnership with Google on many fronts, from marketing to surfacing on their store to promotion of our brands and then being at the table to really collaborate around innovation, AI, cloud opportunities. I believe that this can significantly benefit our business, and we look forward to actually working much closer with Google on many of these different fronts.

我認為這是我們關係的重置，它有助於我們在許多方面與Google的合作，從行銷到在他們的商店中展示，再到推廣我們的品牌，然後在桌面上圍繞創新、人工智慧和雲端機會進行真正的合作。我相信這可以極大地有益於我們的業務，我們期待在許多不同的領域與Google進行更密切的合作。

We're also very confident now with our relationship with Google that will help our brands continue to innovate but also improve the ability to reach Android users worldwide. And we can focus day in and day out on how we can grow together and drive product innovation.

我們現在對與 Google 的關係也非常有信心，這將有助於我們的品牌繼續創新，同時提高接觸全球 Android 用戶的能力。我們可以日復一日地專注於如何一起成長並推動產品創新。

The next question comes from Benjamin Black of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的班傑明·布萊克。

Thanks for the disclosure on Hinge, and actually, specifically on Hinge, could you -- can you talk about some of the initiatives that supported this recent momentum that we're seeing? Also, I'd be curious to hear if you anticipate a similar headwind to payers in the launch of weekly subscriptions like you've seen with Tinder.

感謝您在 Hinge 上的披露，實際上，特別是在 Hinge 上，您能談談支持我們最近看到的這一勢頭的一些舉措嗎？另外，我很想知道，您是否預計在推出每週訂閱服務時，付款人會遇到類似的阻力，就像您在 Tinder 上看到的那樣。

And then lastly, in the past, you said you expect Hinge should be a $1 billion business over the next few years, just given the strong fundamental trends that you're seeing right now. Could you perhaps give us an update on your thoughts as to when that milestone could be hit?

最後，您過去曾說過，考慮到您現在看到的強勁基本面趨勢，您預計 Hinge 在未來幾年內將成為一家價值 10 億美元的業務。您能否向我們介紹一下您對何時能夠達到這一里程碑的最新想法？

Thanks for the question, Benjamin. I can take this one. Hinge is a great product and has a super clear brand narrative that continues to resonate in English-speaking markets along with the European markets that we've just expanded to. They've really done a great job of focusing on single high-intent daters and has tremendous momentum and fantastic word of mouth. The combination of natural and driven user growth alongside monetization initiatives is driving accelerating revenue growth. The team continues to build on this position of strength.

謝謝你的提問，班傑明。這個我可以拿走Hinge 是一款出色的產品，具有超清晰的品牌敘事，繼續在英語市場以及我們剛剛擴展到的歐洲市場產生共鳴。他們在專注於單身高意約會者方面確實做得非常出色，並且擁有巨大的動力和出色的口碑。自然和驅動的用戶成長與貨幣化舉措相結合，正在推動收入加速成長。該團隊將繼續鞏固這一優勢地位。

To answer your question on weekly subs, the weekly subs at Hinge is actually similar to that at Tinder, but it's less apparent because of Hinge's continued top-of-funnel strength. Like Gary mentioned, we continue to believe that weekly subscription packages were the right decision for the company and our strong driver of revenue growth, and it's what daters want.

回答你關於每週訂閱者的問題，Hinge 的每週訂閱者實際上與 Tinder 相似，但由於 Hinge 持續在漏斗頂部的優勢而不太明顯。就像加里提到的那樣，我們仍然相信每週訂閱套餐對公司來說是正確的決定，也是我們收入成長的強大推動力，這也是約會者想要的。

Now to kind of tackle your $1 billion question, we expect Hinge to generate $400 million in direct revenue this year, and we expect a 35-plus percent growth rate for next year. So we're basically adding about $140 million plus in revenue for next year. So if you extrapolate that growth rate as well as the revenue that we're adding, we can get to about $1 billion in maybe 4 to 5 years. Thanks for the question.

現在，為了解決您 10 億美元的問題，我們預計 Hinge 今年將產生 4 億美元的直接收入，並且預計明年的成長率將超過 35%。因此，我們明年的收入基本上會增加約 1.4 億美元以上。因此，如果你推斷成長率以及我們增加的收入，我們可能會在 4 到 5 年內達到約 10 億美元。謝謝你的提問。

The next question comes from James Heaney of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的詹姆斯希尼 (James Heaney)。

Just one for Gary. Are the Tinder U.S. price increases still impacting the sequential payer growth in Q4? Or is it really just a weekly subscriber churn dynamic and the weaker top of funnel? Just wanted to put a finer point on that.

只給加里一份。 Tinder 美國價格上漲是否仍在影響第四季付費用戶的季增？或者這真的只是每週的訂戶流失動態和漏斗頂部較弱的情況？只是想對此提出更明確的觀點。

Sure. Just to make sure that everybody understands, like you do, James, I mean the way we implemented the U.S. price optimizations in Tinder in the U.S. was that not everybody saw the price changes immediately. It's only after you churn for a period of time as a subscriber as a payer that you see the higher prices. And so the effect of that is sort of moving its way through the Tinder payer base on a gradual basis.

當然。為了確保每個人都像您一樣理解，詹姆斯，我的意思是我們在美國的 Tinder 中實施美國價格優化的方式是，並不是每個人都能立即看到價格變化。只有當您作為訂閱者和付款人流失一段時間後，您才會看到更高的價格。因此，這種影響正逐漸滲透到 Tinder 付費用戶群。

I would tell you that by now, probably a majority, maybe 60% or so of Tinder payers have seen the higher prices. So there's still a tail of people who are going to see them over time. And so there's still a modest sequential impact from all that in Q3. I expect there'll be a slightly less -- slightly more modest, I guess, impact on that in Q4. And that will continue and keep declining as an impact but still be there as a lingering impact for the next few quarters. But it is fairly modest. Frankly, it's why you can't really see it on the chart that we have on Page 13 of the shareholder letter. It's such a small impact. And so it's modest, but it's still there and will continue to be so for a bit longer now.

我想告訴你，到目前為止，可能大多數（也許 60% 左右）的 Tinder 付款人已經看到了更高的價格。所以隨著時間的推移，仍然會有一些人會看到它們。因此，第三季的所有這些仍然會產生適度的連續影響。我預期第四季的影響會稍微小一點——我想，稍微溫和一點。這種影響將持續下去並持續下降，但在接下來的幾個季度仍然會產生揮之不去的影響。但這是相當溫和的。坦白說，這就是為什麼你在股東信第 13 頁的圖表上看不到它的原因。影響這麼小啊所以它是適度的，但它仍然存在，並且現在將繼續存在一段時間。

And I would just say on the sequential impacts generally, you've got the impact from the U.S. price increases at Tinder, which is this modest impact that is continuing. And then obviously, we've had the impact from the weekly subs. I think the impact from the weekly subs that we've introduced in 2023 will largely be neutralized by the end of this year. So that's not an ongoing lingering effect into next year as is the case with U.S. price optimizations.

我只想說總體上的連續影響，你已經受到了美國 Tinder 價格上漲的影響，這種影響仍在持續。顯然，我們受到了每週訂閱者的影響。我認為我們在 2023 年推出的每週訂閱的影響將在今年年底基本消除。因此，這不會像美國價格優化那樣對明年產生持續的揮之不去的影響。

Now I do want to point out that we're going to continue to optimize prices, introduce weeklies in other markets. They're going to be smaller market than the U.S. or some of these key international markets. But optimizations are something that Tinder is meant to be doing at all times. We didn't do it for a while in the U.S., and we played catch-up this year. But in general, there's an always-on kind of optimization. There's opportunity to roll out weekly subs and price optimization in other markets.

現在我想指出的是，我們將繼續優化價格，在其他市場推出周刊。它們的市場將比美國或其中一些主要國際市場小。但優化是 Tinder 始終應該做的事情。我們在美國已經有一段時間沒有這樣做了，今年我們迎頭趕上。但總的來說，有一種永遠在線的優化。有機會在其他市場推出每週訂閱和價格優化。

And so we'll do it. But because it's going to be in smaller markets, the effects of that will be much more modest over time. This year was the bigger shock to the system, and we're working our way through that, and we should be through that very soon. So I think that should be encouraging for everybody.

所以我們會這麼做。但由於它將出現在較小的市場，因此隨著時間的推移，其影響將變得更加溫和。今年對系統的衝擊更大，我們正在努力度過這個難關，而且我們應該很快就會度過這個難關。所以我認為這對每個人來說都是令人鼓舞的。

The next question comes from Lauren Schenk of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的勞倫·申克。

This is Nathan Feather on for Lauren. Can you talk through the seasonality of Tinder marketing within 3Q and to what extent, if any, it impacted payer growth during the quarter? And then maybe taking a step back more broadly, how should we think about the lag time between marketing, user growth and revenue growth?

我是勞倫 (Lauren) 的內森費瑟 (Nathan Feather)。您能否談談第三季 Tinder 行銷的季節性以及它對本季付費用戶成長的影響程度（如果有）？然後也許更廣泛地退一步，我們應該如何考慮行銷、用戶成長和收入成長之間的延遲時間？

Thanks for the question. When we originally launched the It Starts With a Swipe Campaign, we planned to have multiple phases throughout the year. So seasonally, with Tinder, end of July going into August tends to be slower months for Tinder. So we took the opportunity between these phases to refresh the content for the balance of the year.

謝謝你的提問。當我們最初推出「從刷卡開始」活動時，我們計劃全年分多個階段進行。因此，從季節性角度來看，對於 Tinder 來說，7 月底到 8 月往往是 Tinder 速度較慢的月份。因此，我們利用這些階段之間的機會更新了今年剩餘時間的內容。

It's important to note that during this time period, we're still targeting young women, and we did not see the same pullback in new users with this demo. We expect to take an overall step back in new users and have some impact of payers in Q4, which we've already articulated. We have learned a lot from this. I'm pushing the team now to have a consistent, steady beat on marketing going forward, especially in our larger markets.

值得注意的是，在此期間，我們仍然以年輕女性為目標，並且在這個演示中我們沒有看到新用戶出現同樣的回落。我們預計第四季度新用戶數量將全面倒退，並對付款人產生一些影響，這一點我們已經明確表示。我們從中學到了很多。我現在正在推動團隊在行銷方面保持一致、穩定的節奏，尤其是在我們更大的市場中。

In that time period, we are also able to reallocate some spend into our college outreach marketing and the launch of our Matchmaker feature. Both of these campaigns integrated well-known rappers and targeted our Gen Z demographic but was closely knit in with product innovation at the same time. As you can all see, these campaigns have created a tremendous amount of buzz and excitement around the product and are a key part and ingredient to retelling the Tinder narrative. Thanks for the question.

在此期間，我們還可以將一些支出重新分配到大學外展行銷和媒人功能的推出中。這兩項活動都整合了知名饒舌歌手，並針對 Z 世代人群，但同時又與產品創新緊密結合。正如您所看到的，這些活動圍繞著產品引起了巨大的轟動和興奮，並且是重述 Tinder 故事的關鍵部分和要素。謝謝你的提問。

The next question comes from Ygal Arounian of Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。

I want to ask about Tinder premium and early signs you're seeing from that here. And then what contribution is expected in -- both in 4Q and in the preliminary outlook for next year?

我想問一下 Tinder 高級版以及您在這裡看到的早期跡象。那麼第四季和明年的初步展望中預計會有什麼貢獻？

I can take that one. I'm really proud of the product that the team has built and launched into the market. The amount of invites for our SELECT that have gone out are still at a very low level. Tinder and the team have been working really hard to optimize the onboarding process and help users and SELECT members really understand the value proposition.

我可以接受那個。我對團隊開發並推出市場的產品感到非常自豪。我們的 SELECT 活動的邀請數量仍然處於非常低的水平。 Tinder 和團隊一直在努力優化入職流程，幫助使用者和 SELECT 會員真正理解價值主張。

So we're continuing to iterate, learn from our users and will continue to ramp up the number of invites. We do continue to feel optimistic about the financial potential of the product, and we believe that it will continue and we can generate tens of millions of dollars of revenue in the next year.

因此，我們將繼續迭代，向用戶學習，並將繼續增加邀請數量。我們確實對該產品的財務潛力持續感到樂觀，我們相信這種情況將持續下去，我們可以在明年產生數千萬美元的收入。

The next question comes from Dan Salmon of New Street Research.

下一個問題來自新街研究公司的丹‧薩爾蒙。

So I've got a 2-part question here. I just want to kind of circle back about macro a little bit. I know you mentioned the impact of higher interest rates, the conflict in the Middle East in the shareholder letter. But could you elaborate a little bit on what you see as a deterioration in macro conditions, especially in light of considerable GDP growth and a resilient consumer in the U.S.?

所以我這裡有一個由兩個部分組成的問題。我只是想稍微回顧一下宏觀。我知道您在股東信中提到了高利率的影響和中東衝突。但您能否詳細說明一下您所認為的宏觀狀況惡化的情況，特別是考慮到美國國內生產總值的大幅增長和消費者的彈性？

And then second related part, could we just circle back a little bit on the impact of student loan repayments? It sounds like it's one of the things impacting à la carte, but it also seems like there's some changes to how younger users engage with à la carte in the first place. So perhaps you can parse that a little bit more.

然後第二個相關部分，我們可以稍微回顧一下學生貸款償還的影響嗎？聽起來這是影響點菜的因素之一，但年輕用戶與點菜的互動方式似乎也發生了一些變化。所以也許你可以進一步解析一下。

Sure. Let me give that a try, Dan. I think on the student loan repayments, this was first announced in July that there was going to be a resumption. And we've been watching the trend at Tinder à la carte since then, and we have seen some weakness in U.S. versus the rest of the world, where this is obviously not an issue, on the Tinder à la carte revenue. It's probably 1 or 2 points of annual growth that it's costing. And we're looking at the cohorts, from an age perspective, of people at Tinder that we would expect would be impacted by potentially having student loans to start repaying again.

當然。讓我嘗試一下，丹。我認為關於學生貸款償還，這是在七月首次宣布將恢復的。從那時起，我們一直在關注 Tinder 點菜的趨勢，我們發現美國的 Tinder 點菜收入相對於世界其他地區存在一些弱點，而這顯然不是問題。它所付出的代價可能是每年 1 或 2 個百分點的成長。我們正在從年齡的角度來研究 Tinder 上的人群，我們預計這些人群可能會受到可能再次開始償還學生貸款的影響。

And that's where we can see that there is that impact. So we have enough data, global versus U.S. and by age cohort, that we can try to estimate what the impact is. And we do think there's some. It started in July. When it was first announced, we've been watching it through October when the bills came around, and now people will have to start paying them here in November. So it's definitely something to watch and something we're trying to factor in to our Q4 and 2024 outlook. And I think we've been able to do that. So that's one factor.

這就是我們可以看到這種影響的地方。因此，我們有足夠的數據（全球與美國、按年齡組），我們可以嘗試估計影響是什麼。我們確實認為有一些。事情從七月開始。當它第一次宣佈時，我們一直在關注整個十月份帳單的到來，現在人們必須在十一月開始在這裡付款。因此，這絕對值得關注，也是我們在第四季和 2024 年展望中嘗試考慮的因素。我認為我們已經能夠做到這一點。這是一個因素。

On the other side that you mentioned, the other thing that you mentioned around the resiliency of the consumer, of course, you're right that the consumer has held on well through the course of this year. And GDP growth in the most recent quarter has been very strong, and that's all correct. I think what we're focused on, though, is are we kind of getting to the end of the consumer strength, and we're starting to see signs as we look at macro data around savings rates, around credit card delinquencies and things like that, that indicates to us that there's some potential risk around the consumer.

當然，您提到的另一方面，您提到的有關消費者彈性的另一件事，您是對的，消費者今年一直保持良好狀態。最近一個季度的 GDP 成長非常強勁，這是正確的。不過，我認為我們關注的是，我們的消費者實力是否已接近尾聲，當我們觀察儲蓄率、信用卡拖欠等宏觀數據時，我們開始看到跡象這向我們表明消費者存在一些潛在風險。

So sitting here, trying to prognosticate what's going to happen in our business and with the consumer for 2024, I think the trends that we're seeing around some evolving consumer weakness leads us to be cautious about 2024 and to try to factor in some possibility that the consumer really does weaken over the course of '24. It feels like the prudent thing to do right now as we're providing the initial outlook.

因此，坐在這裡，試圖預測 2024 年我們的業務和消費者將會發生什麼，我認為我們看到的一些不斷變化的消費者疲軟趨勢導致我們對 2024 年持謹慎態度，並嘗試考慮一些可能性消費者在24 年期間確實有所減弱。當我們提供初步前景時，這感覺是現在要做的謹慎之舉。

I'm more than happy to be wrong on that. And for somebody to come back and say, "You guys were too conservative. That didn't happen in the economy, and things ended up being stronger than expected in '24." But I think that right now, kind of taking into account all of the factors that we know, it does indicate to us that being a little bit more prudent on our expectations around the consumer makes sense. And given that we have a lot of consumers at Tinder, who are on the younger side, who tend to have less discretionary income, we could feel a little bit of that impact, and so we've tried to factor that in. If it ends up not being the case, then I would say there's upside to our expectations for next year.

我很高興在這一點上犯了錯誤。有人回來說：“你們太保守了。經濟上並沒有發生這種情況，24 年的情況最終比預期的要強。”但我認為，現在考慮到我們所知的所有因素，它確實向我們表明，對消費者的期望更加謹慎是有道理的。考慮到我們在 Tinder 上有很多消費者，他們都比較年輕，可自由支配收入往往較少，我們可能會感受到一點這種影響，所以我們試圖將這一點考慮在內。最終情況並非如此，那麼我想說我們對明年的預期還有上升空間。

I think we're at time. Hopefully, that was helpful, Dan, and for everyone else's questions. Thank you for asking them this morning. We appreciate everyone joining, and we look forward to talking to everyone again on our next earnings call for Q4, which will be at the end of January and early February. Thank you very much.

我想我們來得正是時候。希望這對丹以及其他人的問題有所幫助。謝謝你今天早上問他們。我們感謝大家的加入，我們期待在 1 月底和 2 月初舉行的下一次第四季財報電話會議上再次與大家交談。非常感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，您現在可以斷開連接了。