Match Group Inc (MTCH) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Match Group Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加Match Group 2023年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）。請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁坦尼·謝爾伯恩女士。請開始吧。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。今天的電話會議將由執行長伯納德·金和總裁兼財務長加里·斯威德勒主持。他們將作簡短致辭，之後我們將開放提問環節。

Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC.

在會議開始之前，我需要提醒各位，我們可能會在本次電話會議中討論公司前景和未來業績。這些前瞻性陳述可能包含「我們預期」、「我們相信」、「我們預期」或類似表述。這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，我們的實際業績可能與今天表達的觀點有重大差異。部分風險已在我們的獲利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的定期報告中列出。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to B.K.

接下來，我想把電話交給 B.K.

Thanks, Tanny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. I come to work every day energized because I get to work at a company dedicated to helping people find love, happiness and human connections. That inspiration not only inspires me but also our teams and has enabled another strong quarter of strong operating and financial results for Match Group in Q3, highlighted by a second consecutive quarter of record Total Revenue and AOI.

謝謝，Tanny。大家早安，感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。我每天都充滿活力地來上班，因為我所在的公司致力於幫助人們找到愛情、幸福和人際關係。這種動力不僅激勵著我，也激勵著我們的團隊，並促成了Match Group第三季又一個強勁的營運和財務業績，其中總收入和平均營業收入連續第二個季度創下歷史新高。

Our businesses have demonstrated that setting clear goals and objectives cannot only build momentum in the current year but also set up our company for a bright future. Tinder is a great example of this. Tinder's business model was built largely on virality, but it's not lost on me how important it is to continue to drive forward with innovative marketing and product initiatives while also rebuilding the revenue momentum that Tinder has enjoyed for so long, not just in 2023 but for years to come.

我們的業務已經證明，設定清晰的目標和指標不僅能推動公司在當年的發展，也能為公司的未來奠定堅實的基礎。 Tinder 就是一個很好的例子。 Tinder 的商業模式很大程度上依賴病毒式傳播，但我深知，在繼續推動創新行銷和產品舉措的同時，重振 Tinder 長期以來享有的營收成長勢頭至關重要，這不僅關乎 2023 年，更關乎未來的發展。

Looking at 2023 thus far, I deeply believe we made the right decision in prioritizing revenue growth initiatives at Tinder with U.S. price optimizations and weekly subscription packages. While we recognize that these actions have created short-term volatility in Tinder's payer count, we're essentially resetting Tinder's payer base at a significantly higher rate which has enabled double-digit revenue growth 1 quarter ahead of our initial expectations, an outcome that we're very pleased with.

回顧2023年至今，我深信我們當初優先考慮Tinder的營收成長舉措，包括優化美國市場的價格和推出每週訂閱套餐，是一個正確的決定。雖然我們意識到這些舉措在短期內造成了Tinder付費用戶數量的波動，但我們實際上是以更高的增長率重新構建了Tinder的付費用戶基礎，這使得營收增長比我們最初預期提前了一個季度，達到兩位數，我們對此結果非常滿意。

The other component of Tinder's ongoing success is centered on product and marketing initiatives that reignite user growth and improve its brand narrative. We saw great strength through June in terms of total sign-ups and reactivations as a result of the It Starts With a Swipe campaign. However, in late summer, Tinder pulled back its spend on the campaign and concentrated more heavily into female-focused messaging.

Tinder持續成功的另一個關鍵因素在於其產品和行銷舉措，這些舉措能夠重振用戶成長並提升品牌形象。 6月份，得益於「It Starts With a Swipe」活動，註冊用戶和用戶啟動量均大幅成長。然而，在夏末，Tinder縮減了該活動的投入，並將更多精力集中在針對女性用戶的行銷訊息上。

Although overall user trends remained slightly down as a result of the pullback, Tinder's younger female sign-ups did not see the same pullback, proving that we continue to make good progress with this critical demographic. Tinder also began marketing again on college campuses for the first time in 3 years and launched a new feature called Matchmaker in mid-October, both of which featured well-known rappers as part of their campaigns. We are so excited to leverage the power of music into our work because we know how core it is to the lives of Gen Z users.

儘管受疫情影響，整體用戶成長趨勢略有下降，但Tinder年輕女性用戶的註冊量並未出現同樣的下滑，這證明我們在這一關鍵用戶群中持續取得良好進展。 Tinder在三年後重返大學校園進行行銷，並在10月中旬推出了名為「Matchmaker」的新功能，這兩項活動都邀請了知名饒舌歌手參與。我們非常高興能夠將音樂的力量融入我們的工作中，因為我們深知音樂對Z世代使用者的生活至關重要。

Tinder SELECT, our first-ever high-end tier, also rolled out in September and has seen early interest, but the nature of the business is such that we need to continue to iterate and make sure that it's an exceptional experience that deeply resonates for users and provides the value that they are looking for.

Tinder SELECT 是我們首個高端會員級別，也於 9 月推出，並已獲得初步關注。但業務的本質決定了我們需要不斷迭代，確保它能為用戶帶來非凡的體驗，深深引起用戶的共鳴，並提供他們所尋求的價值。

Importantly, Tinder's learnings from 2023 are informing its 2024 road map, which we will continue to build off of what we've accomplished throughout this year. For example, we've learned from launching weekly subscriptions that the younger generations Tinder primarily serves have more of an affinity to lower price and shorter-term duration products than we had initially anticipated. Therefore, we're exploring opportunities to increase our monetization by revisiting our à la carte portfolio. The reality is that roughly 85% of our à la carte Payers are subscribers, representing a very large untapped potential for future monetization and payer penetration.

重要的是，Tinder 從 2023 年汲取的經驗正在指導其 2024 年的發展路線圖，我們將繼續在今年取得的成就基礎上推進這一路線圖的製定。例如，我們從推出每週訂閱服務中了解到，Tinder 的主要目標用戶群——年輕一代——比我們最初預期的更傾向於價格更低、期限更短的產品。因此，我們正在探索透過重新審視我們的單點付費產品組合來提高獲利能力的機會。事實上，我們大約 85% 的單點付費用戶都是訂閱用戶，這意味著未來在獲利能力和付費用戶滲透率方面存在著巨大的未開發潛力。

Also, we believe that Tinder has a long runway ahead in international markets where it can really push penetration higher. These represent real opportunities for Tinder and give me a great deal of confidence in Tinder's ability to achieve future growth expectations.

此外，我們相信Tinder在國際市場擁有龐大的發展空間，其市場滲透率仍有很大的提升空間。這些都代表著Tinder的真正機遇，也讓我對Tinder實現未來成長預期充滿信心。

Looking across the entire Match Group portfolio, I continue to be amazed by the level of team collaboration, work output and innovation taking place on behalf of daters across the globe.

縱觀整個 Match Group 的產品組合，我仍然對他們為全球約會者所展現出的團隊協作水平、工作成果和創新能力感到驚訝。

Hinge continues to prove that when you have a great product and a brand that deeply resonates, good things happen. Through Q3, Hinge drove usage levels to an all-time high, becoming the #1 most downloaded dating app in several important markets like the U.K. and Australia and has firmly solidified itself as a top 3 dating app in the U.S. Not only that, but Hinge continues to make massive inroads in its European expansion markets.

Hinge持續證明，當擁有優秀的產品和能引起用戶共鳴的品牌時，好事自然會發生。第三季度，Hinge的用戶使用量創歷史新高，在英國和澳洲等多個重要市場成為下載量排名第一的約會應用，並在美國穩居前三名。不僅如此，Hinge在歐洲擴張市場也持續取得巨大進展。

All of this enabled another quarter of strong double-digit revenue growth. With Hinge well on its way to delivering its $400 million annual revenue target in 2023, we see an even brighter future ahead led by ongoing growth initiatives and more monetization capabilities.

這一切促成了公司連續第二季實現兩位數的強勁營收成長。 Hinge 正朝著 2023 年 4 億美元的年營收目標穩步邁進，我們相信，在持續成長舉措和更強的獲利能力的推動下，公司前景將更加光明。

At Match Group Asia, Azar continues to post double-digit revenue growth rates, driven by its new AI-enabled matching algorithm, a demonstration of Hyperconnect's best-in-class talent coming to life to drive user growth and financial strength. At Pairs, we launched our first-ever TV campaign, which marks an extremely important step in breaking down stigma and unlocking improved user trends.

在Match Group Asia，Azar憑藉其全新的AI匹配演算法，持續保持兩位數的營收成長率，這充分展現了Hyperconnect一流人才在推動用戶成長和提升財務實力方面的卓越能力。在Pairs，我們推出了首個電視廣告宣傳活動，這標誌著我們在打破固有觀念、挖掘用戶成長趨勢方面邁出了極其重要的一步。

And at E&E, we rolled out Archer, our first dating app for gay, bisexual and queer men, nationwide in late September. Again, one full quarter ahead of initial plans and the team is even accelerating its international plans given such strong user receptivity thus far as it zeroes in on key competitors. Archer is another example of how our teams take learnings and effectively apply them to drive improved outcomes for its users and our portfolio.

在E&E，我們於9月下旬在全國推出了首款男同性戀、雙性戀和酷兒男性的約會應用程式Archer。這比原計劃提前了一個季度，鑑於用戶目前對Archer的強勁反響，團隊甚至正在加快國際推廣計劃，並集中精力應對主要競爭對手。 Archer再次體現了我們的團隊如何吸取經驗教訓並有效運用，從而為使用者和我們的產品組合帶來更好的結果。

We remain deeply committed to our innovation and the use of AI to provide users the best possible dating experience. And I look forward to sharing more on our efforts in our Q4 call as we think about how innovation can really improve our users' experience and expand the category. We know there is much more work to be done to finish 2023 from a position of strength and set our company up to deliver ongoing shareholder value over time.

我們始終致力於創新，並利用人工智慧為用戶提供最佳的約會體驗。我期待在第四季度財報電話會議上分享更多相關進展，探討如何透過創新真正提升用戶體驗並拓展約會領域。我們深知，為了在2023年底保持強勁勢頭，並為公司持續創造股東價值奠定基礎，我們還有很多工作要做。

With that, I'll turn it over to Gary.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給蓋瑞。

Thanks, B.K. and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. The momentum in our financial performance strengthened again this quarter, and we hit our financial target of 10% Tinder year-over-year Direct Revenue growth, 1 quarter earlier than we've been expecting. As B.K. mentioned, we achieved record quarterly Total Revenue as well as record AOI and OI at Match Group in Q3, a clear demonstration of the financial power of the business. We're pleased by the revenue momentum at Tinder and also by the exceptional user and revenue momentum at Hinge. Our judicious focus on costs across the company is enabling us to invest in our growth businesses and deliver record profits.

謝謝B.K.，大家好。感謝各位今天早上參與我們的討論。本季我們的財務表現動能再次增強，我們提前一個季度實現了Tinder直接營收年增10%的財務目標。正如B.K.所提到的，第三季Match Group的總收入、平均營業收入（AOI）和營業額（OI）均創歷史新高，這充分展現了公司強大的財務實力。我們對Tinder的營收成長動能以及Hinge用戶和營收的強勁成長動能感到滿意。公司各部門對成本的審慎控制，使我們能夠投資於成長型業務，並實現創紀錄的利潤。

Match Group's Total Revenue for Q3 was $882 million, up 9% year-over-year compared to up 4% year-over-year in Q2. FX was a notable headwind once again and $10 million more severe than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call. Tinder outperformed our expectations in the quarter, as the revenue momentum we saw from price optimizations in the U.S. and weekly subscriptions continue to deliver.

Match Group第三季總營收為8.82億美元，年增9%，高於第二季的4%。匯率波動再次成為顯著的不利因素，實際損失比我們上次財報電話會議時的預期高出1000萬美元。 Tinder本季表現超出預期，這得益於美國市場價格優化和周訂閱模式帶來的營收成長動能持續強勁。

Tinder Direct Revenue was up 11% year-over-year at $509 million in Q3. We Tinder RPP was up 18% year-over-year at $16.28 due to the U.S. price optimizations and weekly packages. In the U.S., Tinder RPP was up 42% year-over-year. Tinder's U.S. price increases and the rollout of weekly subscriptions in the U.S. and a handful of key international markets have played an important role in accelerating revenue growth as the year has gone on. These optimizations have increased RPP dramatically and have clearly been revenue-enhancing at Tinder. However, they've also had impact on Tinder's payer count this year.

第三季度，Tinder直接營收年增11%，達到5.09億美元。由於美國市場的價格優化和周套餐的推出，Tinder用戶平均付費額（RPP）年增18%，達到16.28美元。在美國，Tinder的RPP年成長高達42%。 Tinder在美國提價，並在美國和部分主要國際市場推出週訂閱服務，這些措施在推動收入成長方面發揮了重要作用。這些優化措施顯著提高了RPP，並明顯提升了Tinder的收入。然而，這些措施也對Tinder今年的付費用戶數產生了一定影響。

Q3 Tinder Payers declined 6% year-over-year to 10.4 million, largely due to the U.S. price increases. Tinder Payers were down by 56,000 sequentially in Q3 and as weekly subscribers in the U.S. rolled off, partially offset by the addition of weekly subscribers in several key international markets. The sequential impact on Q3 Payers from U.S. pricing optimizations was modest and far less than in Q2 as the majority of U.S. members had already been subject to the higher pricing.

第三季Tinder付費用戶數量較去年同期下降6%至1,040萬，主要原因是美國市場價格上漲。第三季Tinder付費用戶數量較上季減少5.6萬，原因是美國地區的周付費用戶逐漸減少，但部分被幾個主要國際市場新增的周付費用戶所抵銷。由於大多數美國用戶先前已受到價格上漲的影響，因此美國市場價格調整對第三季付費用戶數量的環比影響較小，遠低於第二季。

Tinder top-of-funnel trends, which include new registrations and reactivations of lapsed users, weakened slightly in Q3. Tinder pulled back on some It Starts With a Swipe brand marketing spend in late July and early August, electing to concentrate efforts on several key marketing initiatives in the back-to-college season in late August and September, which affected top-of-funnel trends in Q3.

Tinder 的漏斗頂端趨勢（包括新註冊用戶和流失用戶的重新激活）在第三季略有減弱。 Tinder 在 7 月下旬和 8 月初減少了一些「It Starts With a Swipe」品牌行銷支出，選擇將精力集中在 8 月下旬和 9 月的返校季的幾項關鍵行銷活動上，這影響了第三季度的漏斗頂端趨勢。

In the U.S., new users were down 6% year-over-year in September compared to June when they were down 2% year-over-year. That said, over that same period, new users consisting of women 18 to 29 years old did not see the same step back, demonstrating the impact of Tinder's sharper focus on younger women.

在美國，9月新用戶數量較去年同期下降6%，而6月的降幅為2%。不過，同期18至29歲女性新用戶數並未出現同樣的下滑，顯示Tinder更加重視年輕女性用戶群的策略產生了正面影響。

Our Hinge brand continues to perform exceptionally well. Hinge grew Direct Revenue 44% year-over-year, a 9-point acceleration over Q2. Hinge experienced strong user growth in both core English-speaking markets and its European expansion markets, leading to 37% year-over-year download growth in Q3. Hinge Q3 Payers were up 33% year-over-year at over 1.3 million while RPP of nearly $27 was up over 8% year-over-year again in Q3.

我們的Hinge品牌持續表現卓越。 Hinge的直接營收年增44%，較第二季成長9個百分點。 Hinge在核心英語市場和歐洲拓展市場的用戶成長強勁，第三季下載量較去年同期成長37%。 Hinge第三季付費用戶超過130萬，較去年成長33%；平均每用戶付費額接近27美元，較去年同期成長超過8%。

Our Match Group Asia business saw Direct Revenue decline 5% year-over-year to $77 million in Q3, but it was up 2% FX neutral. At Hyperconnect, Azar grew Direct Revenue 20% year-over-year as implementation of a new AI-driven matching algorithm continued to drive meaningful increases in engagement and conversion. While Azar has been a real bright spot, Hakuna and Pairs saw year-over-year Direct Revenue declines in Q3. The Japanese market continues to experience subpar user growth, although we have seen some recent improvement as a result of the new TV ad campaigns.

我們的Match Group Asia業務第三季直接營收年減5%至7,700萬美元，但以固定匯率計算成長2%。 Hyperconnect旗下Azar的直接收入年增20%，這得益於全新人工智慧匹配演算法的實施，該演算法持續顯著提升了用戶參與度和轉換率。儘管Azar表現亮眼，但Hakuna和Pairs第三季的直接收入較去年同期下降。日本市場的用戶成長仍低於預期，不過由於近期推出的電視廣告活動，情況有所改善。

At our Evergreen and Emerging Brands, Direct Revenue declines moderated to 3% year-over-year, which was a notable improvement compared to Q2, which itself was better than Q1. InDirect Revenue was $15 million in Q3, up 3% year-over-year, driven by an increase in ad impressions.

在我們的常青品牌和新興品牌中，直接收入年減幅度收窄至 3%，與第二季相比有顯著改善，而第二季本身又優於第一季。第三季間接營收為 1,500 萬美元，年增 3%，主要得益於廣告曝光量的增加。

Q3 Adjusted Operating Income, or AOI, was $333 million after just surpassing $300 million for the first time ever last quarter. It was up 17% year-over-year, representing a margin of 38%, up 3 points year-over-year. Operating income was up 16% year-over-year to $244 million in Q3 for a margin of 28%, up 2 points year-over-year.

第三季調整後營業收入（AOI）為3.33億美元，上季剛突破3億美元大關，創歷史新高。該數據年增17%，利潤率為38%，較去年同期成長3個百分點。第三季營業收入年增16%至2.44億美元，利潤率為28%，較去年同期成長2個百分點。

Overall expenses, including SBC expense, were up 7% year-over-year in Q3 but down 2 points as a percent of Total Revenue. Cost of revenue, including SBC expense grew 3% year-over-year and represented 29% of Total Revenue, down 2 points year-over-year as live streaming costs declined $6 million year-over-year. App store fees increased $19 million year-over-year, 0.5 point as a percentage of Total Revenue. The quarter included a final $3 million escrow payment to Google in July.

第三季總支出（包括SBC支出）年增7%，但佔總收入的比例下降2個百分點。收入成本（包括SBC支出）較去年同期成長3%，佔總營收的29%，較去年同期下降2個百分點，主要原因是直播成本較去年同期減少600萬美元。應用程式商店費用年增1,900萬美元，佔總收入的比例為0.5個百分點。本季包含7月向Google支付的最後一筆300萬美元託管款項。

Selling and marketing costs, including SBC expense increased $24 million or 18% year-over-year, primarily due to increased spend at Tinder and at Hinge as it continued to expand internationally, offset by lower spending at multiple other brands. Selling and marketing spend was up 1 point as a percent of Total Revenue at 17%.

銷售和行銷成本（包括SBC費用）年增2,400萬美元，增幅達18%，主要原因是Tinder和Hinge的支出增加，因為它們持續拓展國際市場，但其他多個品牌的支出減少部分抵銷了這一增長。銷售和行銷支出佔總收入的比例上升1個百分點，達到17%。

G&A costs, including SBC expense declined 6% year-over-year and dropped 2 points as a percentage of Total Revenue to 12% as legal and professional fees declined by $9 million year-over-year.

包括 SBC 費用在內的 G&A 成本年減 6%，佔總收入的百分比下降 2 個百分點至 12%，原因是法律和專業費用年減 900 萬美元。

Product development costs, including SBC expense, grew 7% year-over-year, primarily as a result of higher compensation expense due to increased headcount at Hinge and were flat as a percentage of Total Revenue at 11%.

產品開發成本（包括 SBC 費用）年增 7%，主要是由於 Hinge 員工人數增加導致薪資支出增加，佔總收入的比例持平，為 11%。

Depreciation was up 62% year-over-year or $7 million to $17 million, primarily due to an increase in internally developed software placed in service.

折舊額年增 62%，即 700 萬美元，達到 1,700 萬美元，主要是由於投入使用的內部開發軟體數量增加所致。

Interest expense increased $4 million or 10% year-over-year in Q3 to $40 million, primarily due to higher interest costs due to the floating rate structure of our term loan, while interest income increased $7 million, given higher rates we're earning on our cash balances.

第三季利息支出年增 400 萬美元，增幅達 10%，達到 4,000 萬美元，主要原因是定期貸款採用浮動利率結構，導致利息成本上升；而由於現金餘額收益率上升，利息收入增加了 700 萬美元。

Our gross leverage was 3.3x trailing AOI, and net leverage was 2.7x at the end of Q3, below our target of less than 3x. We ended the quarter with $713 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on hand.

第三季末，我們的總槓桿率為3.3倍滾動平均營業收入，淨槓桿率為2.7倍，低於我們設定的低於3倍的目標。季末，我們持有現金、現金等價物及短期投資共7.13億美元。

During the early part of the quarter, we repurchased 6.7 million of our common shares at an average price of approximately $45 per share, totaling approximately $300 million. Through September 30, 2023, we have reduced outstanding shares by 2.8% from our beginning of the year share count, net of shares issued under employee equity programs. We now have $667 million remaining on our $1 billion share buyback program, providing ample ability to continue to buy back shares.

本季初，我們以平均每股約45美元的價格回購了670萬股普通股，總計約3億美元。截至2023年9月30日，扣除員工股權激勵計畫下發行的股份後，我們已將流通股數量較年初減少了2.8%。目前，我們10億美元的股票回購計畫還剩6.67億美元，足以支持我們繼續進行股票回購。

As we discussed in the letter, the company has minimal capital expenditures and significant free cash flow generation. We disclosed in May that we intend to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders via buyback or other means. We intend to use the remainder of our free cash flow, first, to invest in our businesses, which continues to be the best way to drive shareholder value as we have shown with newly incubated apps like Chispa, BLK and now Archer as well as with various new product initiatives.

正如我們在信中所述，公司資本支出極低，自由現金流充裕。我們在五月揭露，計劃透過股票回購或其他方式將至少50%的自由現金流返還給股東。剩餘的自由現金流，我們將首先用於投資公司業務，正如我們透過Chispa、BLK以及現在的Archer等新孵化應用和各種新產品計劃所證明的那樣，投資仍然是提升股東價值的最佳途徑。

We're confident we're funding the right new bets through our P&L. But M&A has always been a meaningful component of our strategy as well, and we intend to maintain financial flexibility to pursue M&A as a second use of free cash flow. I want to emphasize though that the bar for M&A is high, and we expect acquisitions will be in our category or near adjacent and consistent with our stated mission or of tech capabilities that we need to help accelerate delivery of our mission. If we do not find compelling acquisition opportunities, we expect to return the remaining excess capital to shareholders as well.

我們有信心透過損益表為正確的投資項目提供資金。但併購一直是我們策略的重要組成部分，我們計劃保持財務靈活性，將併購作為自由現金流的第二用途。不過，我想強調的是，併購的門檻很高，我們期望收購目標與我們的業務領域相同或相近，並且符合我們既定的使命，或符合我們加速實現使命所需的技術能力。如果我們沒有找到合適的收購機會，我們計劃將剩餘的盈餘資金回饋給股東。

Turning to our financial outlook for Q4 '23. We expect Total Revenue for Match Group of $855 million to $865 million, up 9% to 10% year-over-year. This range reflects $27 million more of FX headwinds than we had anticipated at the time of our last earnings call as well as risk that our brands will not generate a portion of the approximately $7 million quarterly revenue that we derive from Israel, given the ongoing events there.

接下來談談我們對2023年第四季的財務展望。我們預期Match Group的總營收為8.55億美元至8.65億美元，年增9%至10%。這個預期範圍反映了比我們上次財報電話會議時預期的額外2700萬美元的匯率波動影響，以及鑑於以色列當前局勢，我們旗下品牌可能無法貢獻來自以色列的約700萬美元季度收入的風險。

It also reflects approximately $3 million less than we previously expected because of trends we are seeing in our ad sales business, where we've seen a number of advertisers delay or pull scheduled Q4 campaigns. Also note that Q4 tends to be a weaker quarter sequentially than Q3 as data start to focus on the holiday season in November and December. We expect FX to be less than a 1-point year-over-year headwind in Q4. That said, we continue to expect significant FX volatility as we've seen over the past 3 months.

由於廣告銷售業務的趨勢，許多廣告主推遲或取消了原定於第四季度的廣告活動，因此實際收入比我們先前的預期減少了約300萬美元。此外，由於數據開始集中在11月和12月的假期季，第四季通常比第三季表現疲軟。我們預期第四季匯率波動對業績的年比影響將小於1個百分點。儘管如此，我們仍然預期匯率波動將像過去三個月一樣劇烈。

At Tinder, we expect Direct Revenue to be up approximately 11% year-over-year in Q4, a second consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year Direct Revenue growth and, again, reflecting seasonal trends. We expect FX to be less than a 1-point year-over-year headwind. Our outlook attempts to factor in the likely impacts of a weakening consumer as well as the resumption of U.S. student loan repayments on Tinder's more discretionary à la carte revenue.

我們預計 Tinder 第四季直接營收將年增約 11%，這將是連續第二季實現兩位數年成長，同樣也反映了季節性趨勢。我們預期匯率波動帶來的年比不利影響將小於 1 個百分點。我們的預測試圖將消費者購買力下降以及美國學生貸款還款恢復對 Tinder 更具選擇性的單點付費服務收入可能產生的影響考慮在內。

We expect Tinder RPP to increase year-over-year in Q4 at slightly greater levels than in Q3 and Tinder Payers to decline slightly more year-over-year than in Q3. The additional year-over-year payer decline reflects the late summer weakness in Tinder's new user and reactivation trends.

我們預計 Tinder 第四季的 RPP（每位用戶付費）將年增，增幅略高於第三季；而 Tinder 付費用戶數量將年減，降幅略高於第三季。付費用戶數量的同比下降反映了 Tinder 新用戶和用戶激活趨勢在夏末的疲軟態勢。

In Q4, we expect Tinder's sequential payer count to be negatively impacted as weekly package subscribers continue to fall out of the payer count but without the offsetting benefit of the initial rollouts of weekly packages in large markets that we had in Q2 and Q3. We estimate this to be more than a 200,000 negative sequential impact to Payers.

我們預計，第四季度Tinder的付費用戶數量將受到負面影響，因為按週付費套餐的用戶將持續減少，而第二季和第三季在大型市場推出按週付費方案帶來的初期推廣效益卻未能抵銷。我們估計這將導致付費用戶數量較上季減少超過20萬。

We expect Hinge to deliver meaningfully accelerating year-over-year Direct Revenue growth again in Q4, driven by continued strong performance in English-speaking markets, continued European expansion and various monetization initiatives. We remain confident that Hinge's momentum will lead it to deliver approximately $400 million of Direct Revenue in 2023.

我們預計，在英語市場持續強勁表現、歐洲業務持續擴張以及各項盈利舉措的推動下，Hinge第四季度將再次實現顯著加速的同比直接收入增長。我們仍然相信，Hinge目前的成長動能將使其在2023年實現約4億美元的直接收入。

We expect MG Asia Direct Revenue to be down mid-single digits year-over-year in Q4. We expect similar year-over-year Direct Revenue growth rates for Hyperconnect and Pairs in Q4 as in Q3.

我們預期MG亞洲第四季直接營收將年減5%左右。我們預計Hyperconnect和Pairs第四季的直接營收年增率與第三季基本持平。

We expect our Evergreen & Emerging Brands Direct Revenue to decline mid-single digits year-over-year in Q4, with continued strong growth at the Emerging Brands. We expect inDirect Revenue to be down modestly year-over-year in Q4 given the weakening ad demand, with advertisers pulling or delaying several campaigns.

我們預計第四季常青品牌和新興品牌的直接營收將年減中位數個位數，而新興品牌將持續保持強勁成長。鑑於廣告需求疲軟，廣告商撤回或推遲了部分廣告活動，我們預計第四季度間接收入將同比小幅下降。

We expect AOI of $305 million to $310 million in Q4, representing year-over-year growth of 7% to 9% and margin of 36% at the midpoints of the ranges. We expect overall marketing spend to increase modestly year-over-year in Q4, with a meaningful increase at Tinder and some of our newer growth apps, including Archer and The League.

我們預期第四季平均廣告收入（AOI）為3.05億美元至3.1億美元，年增7%至9%，利潤率為36%（取區間中位數）。我們預計第四季整體行銷支出將比去年小幅成長，其中Tinder以及我們一些較新的成長型應用（包括Archer和The League）的行銷支出將顯著增加。

For full year 2023, Match Group is on pace to achieve approximately 5% top line growth and deliver slightly better AOI margins than we did in 2022, consistent with our recent expectations. Our Q4 and full year 2023 results do not include the impact of the settlement with Google that was reached yesterday.

Match Group 預計 2023 年全年營收將成長約 5%，平均營業利潤率 (AOI) 將略高於 2022 年，與我們近期的預期一致。我們 2023 年第四季及全年業績未計入昨日與Google達成的和解協議的影響。

We expect to enter 2024 with momentum to deliver 10% plus year-over-year Total Revenue growth early in the year. The most critical component to maintaining that level of revenue growth for the full year will be the ability of Tinder's ongoing marketing and product initiatives to deliver as the impacts of the '23 optimizations anniversary.

我們預計2024年初將維持強勁成長勢頭，實現全年總營收年增10%以上。全年維持這一收入成長水準的關鍵在於Tinder持續的行銷和產品舉措能否像2023年優化週年紀念活動的影響力一樣發揮作用。

At the moment, we feel confident in the team's execution and believe the most likely outcome is for full year '24 year-over-year Total Revenue growth in the high single digits. But we want to allow Tinder's execution momentum to build for another quarter before pinpointing a precise '24 year-over-year Total Revenue growth expectation.

目前，我們對團隊的執行力充滿信心，並認為2024年全年總營收年增率最有可能達到接近兩位數。但我們希望再給Tinder一個季度的執行動能鞏固，再給予2024年全年總營收年增率的具體預期。

We also want to continue to monitor the volatile macro environment to assess that impact on our outlook. These factors could drive our revenue growth outlook positively or negatively. We've assumed FX to be a 2-point headwind for full year '24 Total Revenue growth, but that also could change materially given current macro conditions.

我們也會持續關注宏觀環境的波動，以評估其對我們前景的影響。這些因素可能對我們的收入成長預期產生正面或負面的影響。我們假設匯率波動將對2024年全年總收入成長構成2個百分點的不利影響，但鑑於目前的宏觀經濟情勢，這一假設也可能發生重大變化。

We believe we can deliver AOI margins at least at the same level as we expect to deliver in '23. There are a few anticipated margin headwinds that are out of our control, including app store fees and compliance costs related to the EU's Digital Services Act. There is also some uncertainty around digital services taxes in certain markets such as Canada, which would affect AOI. We have attempted to incorporate the impact of the Google settlement into our '24 margin outlook.

我們相信，2024年AOI利潤率至少能達到我們預期在2023年實現的水準。一些我們無法控制的預期利潤率不利因素包括應用商店費用和與歐盟《數位服務法》相關的合規成本。此外，加拿大等某些市場的數位服務稅也存在一些不確定性，這將影響AOI。我們已嘗試將Google和解協議的影響納入我們2024年的利潤率預期中。

We are currently deep in our planning process for '24. We're contemplating investments in innovation and particularly in AI to drive new sources of monetization, resolve user pain points to increase our products' value and potentially build new apps that can deepen our TAM penetration. We're also carefully analyzing the appropriate level of marketing spend to drive user growth at Tinder, Hinge and some of our newer apps. We expect spend reductions in other areas to help offset the impact of increased spend in these areas. We also expect to limit hiring to positions that are vital to driving growth.

我們目前正全力推動2024年的規劃工作。我們正在考慮投資創新，尤其是在人工智慧領域，以開拓新的盈利管道，解決用戶痛點，提升產品價值，並有可能開發新的應用程序，從而擴大我們的目標市場滲透率。同時，我們也認真分析合適的行銷支出水平，以推動Tinder、Hinge以及部分新應用程式的用戶成長。我們預計在其他領域削減開支，將有助於抵消這些領域支出增加的影響。此外，我們還計劃將招募限制在對推動成長至關重要的職位上。

Our current expectation is for Tinder to deliver Direct Revenue growth in the high single-digit range next year through a combination of RPP growth and improving year-over-year payer growth throughout the year. We expect the non-Tinder brands to collectively deliver Direct Revenue growth in the high single-digit range in '24. At Hinge, we expect similar year-over-year Direct Revenue growth as in '23 in excess of 35% and a continued focus on driving share gains in its core and European markets.

我們目前預計，Tinder明年將透過RPP成長和全年付費用戶年成長的共同作用，實現高個位數百分比的直接收入成長。我們預計，除Tinder以外的其他品牌在2024年將共同實現高個位數百分比的直接收入成長。對於Hinge，我們預計其直接收入年增將與2023年持平，超過35%，並將繼續專注於提升其核心市場和歐洲市場的份額。

We're pleased by the momentum we've seen in the business over the past 2 quarters. It is the result of a lot of hard work from many people across the portfolio. We're confident that this momentum will carry into 2024. Importantly, our setup entering next year is much better than it was for 2023. While we're happy with the progress, there is still a lot to do, especially at Tinder, where delivering stronger user trends and sustained payer and revenue growth is paramount and in product innovation across the portfolio, particularly in harnessing AI capabilities to increase adoption of our products and drive higher monetization.

過去兩個季度，我們對業務發展勢頭感到欣喜。這得歸功於公司各部門眾多員工的辛勤付出。我們相信，這股勢頭將延續到2024年。更重要的是，我們明年的準備工作比2023年好得多。儘管我們對目前的進展感到滿意，但仍有許多工作要做，尤其是在Tinder方面，我們需要進一步提升用戶成長趨勢，並維持付費用戶和收入的持續成長。此外，我們還需要在整個產品組合中進行創新，特別是利用人工智慧技術來提高產品普及率和實現更高的獲利能力。

With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

這樣，我就可以請接線生開通提問專線了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from John Blackledge of TD Cowen.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 公司的 John Blackledge。

Gary, maybe could you discuss further kind of the puts and takes of your initial view on the '24 revenue growth and margin assumptions?

Gary，您能否進一步討論您對 2024 年營收成長和利潤率假設的最初看法及其利弊？

Sure, John. Let me give it a shot at unpacking some of that for you in a little more detail. I think on the revenue side, the biggest kind of swing factor for 2024 performance is really, of course, related to Tinder, how well the execution continues to be, how much delivery of growth Tinder delivers in 2024. And as we've talked about many times, we feel really good about how the team is executing the product velocity, the marketing initiatives. And so we've been planning for this for a while, and we are aware that Tinder needs to deliver in 2024 on both top of funnel and on improving payer conversion and overall Payers and revenue. And so that is probably the biggest swing factor as we look at the 2024 revenue guidance.

當然，約翰。讓我更詳細地為你解釋。我認為，就營收而言，2024 年業績的最大變數當然與 Tinder 有關，取決於其執行力能否持續保持良好，以及 Tinder 在 2024 年能夠實現多少成長。正如我們多次提到的，我們對團隊在產品開發速度和行銷方面的執行力感到非常滿意。我們為此已經籌劃了一段時間，我們意識到 Tinder 需要在 2024 年在漏斗頂端、提高付費用戶轉換率以及整體付費用戶數量和營收方面都取得進展。因此，這可能是我們在展望 2024 年營收預期時面臨的最大變數。

The second factor that I would point to, and we called it out, is the macro environment. We're particularly monitoring Tinder on that front because there's a lot of younger users there with less disposable income. There's a lot of à la carte revenue at Tinder, which tends to be a more discretionary purchase. And so we're watching to see what happens in the economies globally as we turn the corner in '24. We know the consumer has held on well this point, but we're increasingly nervous about what's to come in the months ahead. And we're factoring that into our thoughts on outlook for '24 revenue as well.

我要指出的第二個因素，也是我們之前提到的，是宏觀環境。我們尤其關注Tinder在這方面的表現，因為Tinder有很多年輕用戶，他們的可支配收入相對較低。 Tinder的單項服務收入佔比很高，而這些服務通常屬於非必需消費。因此，我們正密切關注全球經濟在2024年復甦後的趨勢。我們知道消費者目前表現良好，但我們越來越擔心未來幾個月的情況。我們也把這些因素納入了對2024年收入的預期。

And then you've got the events in the Middle East, the horrific events going on in the Middle East that we're obviously monitoring very closely as well. We quantified the impact of that on our fourth quarter but obviously much more challenging to get visibility on what's going to happen across the Middle East and what the impact is going to be on our business specifically, which is obviously a more minor concern. But nonetheless, something we're trying to factor in as we think about '24.

此外，中東局勢也令人擔憂，我們正在密切關注中東地區發生的駭人聽聞的事件。我們已經量化了這些事件對我們第四季度業績的影響，但顯然，要準確預測整個中東地區的局勢走向以及對我們業務的具體影響更具挑戰性，這顯然是我們目前關注的次要因素。儘管如此，在展望2024年時，我們仍會努力將這些因素納入考量。

And then last but sort of relatedly to the economy and what's going on in the Middle East as well is what happens with FX rates. We use the forward curve to predict the FX impact for the coming year. And we've done so again this year. But as we've seen consistently and repeatedly, the forward curve tends to be not always the best predictor of actually what's to come, and there's been a lot of a volatility in FX rates. And I think it's fair to assume that, that volatility is going to continue as we go forward. And so that's another swing factor on our 2024 revenue growth outlook.

最後，與經濟以及中東局勢密切相關的是外匯匯率的走勢。我們使用遠期曲線來預測未來一年的外匯影響，今年我們也再次使用了這種方法。但正如我們一再觀察到的，遠期曲線並非總是預測未來走勢的最佳指標，而且外匯匯率波動劇烈。我認為可以合理推斷，這種波動性在未來仍將持續。因此，這成為影響我們2024年營收成長預期的另一個關鍵因素。

I think those are the biggest ones. Obviously, there are others, but I would call those out. On the margin side, which you asked about, in addition to the contribution from Tinder, I mentioned that we're analyzing the incremental marketing spend at Hinge at some of our newer growth businesses like Archer and The League and also at Tinder. I think we will have some guardrails on the increased marketing spend at Tinder. I don't see that being more than a point or 2 of revenue next year incrementally, but it's something that we're analyzing as we go through our planning process, and we'll have more of an update as we get into the early part of next year.

我認為這些才是最重要的。當然還有其他因素，但我只想重點說這些。關於您提到的利潤率方面，除了 Tinder 的貢獻之外，我還提到我們正在分析 Hinge 旗下一些新興成長業務（例如 Archer 和 The League）以及 Tinder 的增量行銷支出。我認為我們會對 Tinder 增加的行銷支出設定一些限制。我預計明年這部分支出不會超過營收的百分之一兩個百分點，但這是我們在規劃過程中會持續分析的內容，我們會在明年年初提供更詳細的資訊。

But we do recognize that we need to continue to build the brand narrative of Tinder and to supplement the viral growth with marketing, as B.K. talked about in his remarks. And I think that we can offset the incremental marketing spend at Tinder, should we choose to do that, with reductions elsewhere across the portfolio, which is something that we've been doing through the course of '23.

但我們確實意識到，我們需要繼續打造 Tinder 的品牌故事，並像 B.K. 在演講中提到的那樣，透過行銷來補充病毒式成長。我認為，如果我們選擇這樣做，我們可以透過削減其他業務的開支來抵消 Tinder 新增的行銷支出，而這正是我們在 2023 年一直在做的事情。

And then last, I would point to innovation, which I called out in my remarks as well. We think it's critically important that we make the proper level of investments in innovation to drive more users into the brands and to increase the value of our products to the users. We think that AI is really providing us with a once-in-a-decade opportunity to do that, and we want to make sure that we harness that opportunity and make the right level of investments in AI.

最後，我想談談創新，這一點我在之前的發言中也提到過。我們認為，對創新進行適當的投資至關重要，這不僅能吸引更多用戶關注我們的品牌，還能提升產品對用戶的價值。我們認為人工智慧為我們提供了十年一遇的機遇，我們希望確保抓住這個機遇，並在人工智慧領域進行適度的投資。

We're still trying to calibrate what that means in terms of hiring, in terms of adding capabilities. We want to do this in a disciplined way, and we're cognizant that we're still very early on in AI and what it requires and what the opportunity is. So we want to calibrate this properly, and it's something that we're carefully doing, and we'll have more on that as well as we sort of make some final determinations and provide a more detailed outlook in February for 2024.

我們仍在努力評估這在招募和能力提升方面意味著什麼。我們希望以嚴謹的方式推進這項工作，我們清楚地認識到，人工智慧領域仍處於起步階段，我們對它所需的一切以及它所蘊含的機會都知之甚少。因此，我們希望謹慎地進行評估，我們正在認真對待此事。我們將在2月做出最終決定並提供更詳細的2024年展望時，公佈更多資訊。

But I would say the marketing investments, the AI investments are the 2 biggest kind of "swing factors" on margins that I would point to for '24. So I hope that's helpful and answered your question with a little more detail.

但我認為，行銷投資和人工智慧投資是影響2024年利潤率的兩大「搖擺因素」。希望我的解釋對您有幫助，並能更詳細地解答您的問題。

The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

Okay. Could you please provide a high-level overview of the top-of-mind product and future investment areas for Tinder that you think will have a maximum impact on payer growth next year?

好的。能否請您簡單概述一下您認為明年對Tinder付費用戶成長影響最大的產品和未來投資領域？

Thanks, Shweta, for that question. I can take that one. There's a lot going on with our Tinder team, and this is our daily grind, but we continue to evolve the product experience that resonates with our users, and we're continually listening to what Gen Z says and want out of our product, and we had to daily continue to improve our experience and surprise and delight our daters.

謝謝Shweta的提問。我可以回答這個問題。我們Tinder團隊有很多事情要做，這是我們每天的日常工作，但我們一直在不斷改進產品體驗，使其更能引起用戶的共鳴。我們持續聆聽Z世代的意見與需求，並不斷提升使用者體驗，力求為約會者帶來驚喜與愉悅。

When it comes to payer penetration, in '23, we reset the RPP levels. So we have to be continually mindful of new ways to drive monetization and payer penetration at the same time. So maybe I can give a couple of examples. I see 2 key areas of potential new revenue opportunities at Tinder. Today, our merchandising is very Western-centric. We believe that there are real opportunities in international markets to tweak our monetization approach, to drive more payer penetration by offers and surfacing built specifically for those markets and cultures.

就付費用戶滲透率而言，我們在2023年重置了RPP（每位用戶付費）目標。因此，我們必須不斷探索新的方法，同時提升付費用戶滲透率和實現獲利。或許我可以舉幾個例子。我認為Tinder有兩個關鍵領域存在潛在的新收入機會。目前，我們的商品銷售策略非常以西方市場為中心。我們相信，在國際​​市場上存在著真正的機遇，可以透過調整我們的獲利模式，利用專門針對這些市場和文化的優惠和推廣方式，來提升付費用戶滲透率。

Additionally, like I mentioned earlier, I believe à la carte is another area of focus for us. Our 2 primary ALC products were launched over 7 years ago. So I think now is the perfect time to revisit those and add to the portfolio of ALC products. We've also seen a great success with weekly package operations with our younger users. We believe this can actually -- these learnings can translate well into our ALC offerings, especially with our current economy.

此外，正如我之前提到的，我認為單點套餐是我們另一個重點關注的領域。我們兩款主要的單點套餐產品推出至今已有七年之久。因此，我認為現在正是重新審視這些產品並豐富單點套餐產品組合的最佳時機。我們也看到，面向年輕用戶的周套餐服務取得了巨大成功。我們相信，這些經驗可以很好地應用到我們的單點套餐產品中，尤其是在當前的經濟狀況下。

As I mentioned earlier, only 15% of our à la carte users are nonsubscribers. So I think there's actually like a big opportunity for us to drive new Payers into our paying ecosystem. Like Gary mentioned, we are in the middle of our 2024 planning, and we plan to share more as we typically do in early 2024. Thanks for the question.

正如我之前提到的，我們單點付費用戶中只有 15% 是非訂閱用戶。所以我認為，我們其實有很大的機會吸引新的付費用戶加入我們的付費生態系統。正如 Gary 所說，我們正在進行 2024 年的規劃，並計劃在 2024 年初像往常一樣分享更多資訊。謝謝你的提問。

The next question comes from Justin Patterson of KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Justin Patterson。

Great. I was hoping you could comment on when you think weekly Payers can get back to more normal growth. You alluded to less sequential volatility within the letter, but curious if you have a more (inaudible) there. And then related, as we're a few more months into this now, I would love to hear you comment on just your learnings on accretion and lifetime value from these weekly plans.

太好了。我希望您能談談您認為每週繳費的投資者何時才能恢復到更正常的成長水平。您在信中提到波動性會降低，但我很好奇您是否有更詳細的說明。另外，鑑於現在已經過去幾個月了，我很想聽聽您從這些每週繳費計劃中獲得的關於增值和終身價值的經驗。

I just want to make sure I understood your question, Justin. You asked about weekly Payers returning to year-over-year growth or Payers more broadly at Tinder?

賈斯汀，我只是想確認一下我是否理解了你的問題。你是問的是Tinder每週付費用戶數量是否恢復到同比增長水平，還是問的是Tinder整體付費用戶數量是否恢復到同比增長水平？

Yes. Sorry, for the confusion there. Payers more broadly since we have the weekly volatility within there and, let's say, assume that's going to normalize sometime next year.

是的。抱歉造成了誤會。這裡指的是更廣泛的支付方，因為其中包含每週的波動，而且我們假設這種情況會在明年某個時候恢復正常。

Okay. Understood. Thanks for the question. I just want to maybe set a little bit of context before I dive into the specifics of your question. And if I'm not mistaken, I think this is probably my 32nd earnings call and probably on all 31 that have come before this one, I've talked about how the company focuses on revenue growth, not specifically on payer growth or revenue per payer growth. And our goal is to drive sustainable, strong revenue growth through a combination of payer growth and RPP growth.

好的，明白了。謝謝你的提問。在深入探討你的問題之前，我想先簡單介紹一下背景。如果我沒記錯的話，這應該是我第32次財報電話會議了，在前31次會議上，我都強調公司專注於營收成長，而不是單純關注支付方成長或單筆支付方收入成長。我們的目標是透過支付方成長和單筆支付方收入成長的結合，實現可持續的強勁營收成長。

And in some years, the product road map tends to be more heavily focused on payer growth. And in some years, the product road map tends to be more focused on RPP growth, and we're somewhat agnostic. I understand that investors prefer to see a better balance between payer growth and RPP growth, and we want to be able to deliver that. And certainly, this year has been outsized on the RPP side versus the payer side. Because of conscious decisions we made, we looked at the level of pricing in the marketplace, and we felt that Tinder had not been price optimizing for the last couple of years, which led to a big opportunity this year to price-optimize in the U.S. market.

有些年份，產品路線圖會更著重於付費用戶成長；而有些年份，則會更著重於每用戶平均收入（RPP）成長，我們對此持中立態度。我理解投資人更希望看到付費用戶成長和RPP成長之間取得更好的平衡，我們也希望能夠實現這一點。當然，今年RPP方面的成長遠超付費用戶成長。由於我們做出了一些有意識的決策，我們審視了市場定價水平，並認為Tinder在過去幾年中並未進行價格優化，這為今年在美國市場進行價格優化創造了絕佳機會。

And so we did a big focus on making that happen. And you can see in the RPP numbers and particularly in the RPP increase that we've seen in the U.S. that there was significant room to adjust pricing in '23. And we've done that, which has enabled the company to go from 0 or essentially flat revenue a couple of quarters ago to 11% revenue growth at Tinder towards the end of this year and deliver the double-digit revenue growth that we wanted to get to 1 quarter earlier.

因此，我們重點關注瞭如何實現這一目標。從RPP數據，尤其是美國RPP的成長來看，可以看出2023年定價有很大的調整空間。我們已經進行了調整，這使得公司營收從幾季前的0或基本持平，到今年年底Tinder營收成長11%，並實現了我們先前一個季度就希望達到的兩位數營收成長目標。

So we feel good that we've hit our revenue goals for the year, and we're well positioned on that front. And so now as we turn our attention to 2024, it's reasonable to assume a more balanced approach between payer growth and revenue per payer growth as we think about the product road map. We've been able to see this for a while now. We've been planning for it. The Tinder team has been working to deliver a better balance. And I think that what you can expect to see is that over the course of the coming quarters, the year-over-year payer growth will gradually improve.

因此，我們很高興實現了今年的營收目標，並且在這方面處於有利地位。現在，當我們把目光轉向2024年時，在製定產品路線圖時，我們有理由假設在付費用戶成長和每位付費用戶營收成長之間採取更平衡的策略。我們已經預見到這一點一段時間了，並且一直在為此做準備。 Tinder團隊一直在努力實現更好的平衡。我認為，在接下來的幾個季度裡，付費用戶年增率將會逐步提高。

And so that's what we're assuming in our outlook for next year, and we are positioned to deliver marketing initiatives to improve top of funnel, which is critical to driving payer growth, and product initiatives, which are intended to both drive top of funnel as well as increase payer conversion.

因此，這就是我們對明年的展望，我們已做好準備，推出行銷舉措來改善銷售漏斗頂端，這對於推動支付方成長至關重要；同時推出產品舉措，旨在改善銷售漏斗頂端並提高支付方轉換率。

Now just to quantify the impact of the pricing initiatives that we did this year, it probably reduced Payers in the U.S. by 500,000. So you can think of it as because the pricing was lower than what was competitively appropriate, the payer count was essentially overstated it by that amount. And so now we've made the adjustments on pricing and that has adjusted the payer number to a lower base that is paying a higher rate, but it's clearly very RPP- and revenue-accretive to the business.

為了量化我們今年實施的定價策略的影響，我們估計美國支付方數量減少了50萬人。您可以理解為，由於先前的定價低於市場競爭水平，支付方數量實際上被高估了50萬。現在，我們調整了定價，將支付方數量調整到較低的基數，但這些支付方需要支付更高的費率。顯然，這大大提高了我們的RPP（每位用戶支付額）和收入。

And so that is kind of where we've gotten to and what the outlook is from a payer perspective. I know that the weekly subscribers have also introduced some volatility on the payer count, but that's more of a sequential item. And I think that has largely kind of washed out by the end of this year. And then as we get through next year, I think you will have a much more normal payer base from which to grow through marketing and product initiatives.

所以，這就是我們目前的情況，也是從付費用戶角度來看的前景。我知道每週訂閱用戶也為付費用戶數量帶來了一些波動，但這更多的是一個週期性因素。我認為到今年年底，這種波動基本上已經消失。然後，隨著我們進入明年，我認為我們將擁有一個更穩定的付費用戶群，並以此為基礎透過行銷和產品推廣活動成長。

And then I think on your question around LTV of the weekly subs, we're confident that not only are the weekly subscribers helpful from a revenue accretion standpoint and an RPP standpoint, but that they are positive on an LTV basis. We've been monitoring the renewal rates and the resubscription rates of these subscribers, and that's been meeting or even exceeding our expectations. And so we think that this is a long-term win. It's not some short-term thing that we've done. It's clearly a long-term healthy thing to do for the ecosystem, and we're confident of it.

關於您提出的周訂閱用戶生命週期價值（LTV）問題，我們確信，週訂閱用戶不僅在收入增長和每千次展示收益（RPP）方面有所助益，而且在LTV方面也表現良好。我們一直在監測這些用戶的續訂率和再次訂閱率，結果都達到了甚至超過了我們的預期。因此，我們認為這是一個長期的雙贏之舉，並非短期舉措。這顯然對整個生態系統都有益，我們對此充滿信心。

And as I think you probably know, we've tested weekly subscribers on other brands of ours. So it's not just at Tinder. We've been testing them for a while, I think, more than a year at some of our smaller brands. And the metrics that we've seen there are consistent with what we're seeing at Tinder. So we now have a lot of data around resubscriptions and renewal rates, and we're confident in our understanding of the LTV of these subscribers and the fact that it's a positive LTV. And it's, frankly, meeting a need, as B.K. said, for what younger users want. They're comfortable with the higher-priced but lower-duration packages. And so that's what we're delivering, and we think that's always a positive for the business.

正如您可能知道的，我們已經在旗下其他品牌測試過週付費訂閱模式。所以這不僅限於 Tinder。我們已經在一些規模較小的品牌上測試了一年多。我們觀察到的指標與 Tinder 的情況一致。因此，我們現在掌握了大量關於續訂率和續費率的數據，並且我們對這些訂閱用戶的終身價值 (LTV) 以及其正 LTV 的認知充滿信心。坦白說，正如 B.K. 所說，這滿足了年輕用戶的需求。他們樂於接受價格更高但訂閱期限更短的套餐。而這正是我們所提供的，我們認為這對業務發展始終是有利的。

The next question comes from Cory Carpenter of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的科里·卡彭特。

Can you expand on your decision to settle the Google lawsuit before trial, just how you think about this outcome for Match?

您能否詳細解釋一下您在審判前決定與Google達成和解的原因，以及您對這一結果對 Match 的影響有何看法？

And then more specifically, Gary, could you talk about the financial impact embedded in your 2024 outlook from this?

那麼更具體地說，Gary，你能否談談這在你的 2024 年展望中蘊含的財務影響？

Sure. So first of all, I would say that we're pleased with the outcome of the settlement. Getting the litigation resolved from our perspective is a good thing. There's always uncertainty when you're going into a trial, and we feel good that we've been able to provide shareholders with certainty around this topic for at least the next few years. And more importantly, we've been able to provide our users with a choice of billing, which is something that we have consistently said is critical to our users, something that we want to be able to provide. And we're happy that we have the opportunity now to provide user choice billing to our consumer base. So we think that's a real positive.

當然。首先，我想說我們對和解結果很滿意。從我們的角度來看，訴訟得以解決是件好事。訴訟總是充滿不確定性，我們很高興能夠讓股東們在未來幾年內對此事感到安心。更重要的是，我們能夠為用戶提供計費方式的選擇，我們一直強調這對用戶至關重要，也是我們希望提供的服務。我們很高興現在有機會為我們的用戶群提供計費方式選擇。所以我們認為這是一個非常積極的方面。

Now unfortunately, the terms of the settlement are confidential. So there's not a ton of detail that we can go into. But let me try to unpack some of the pieces for you. And if you go back all the way to October of 2021, that's where Google wanted to start implementing the change in their billing policies. And we're sitting here now more than 2 years later, effectively. And Google had asked us to escrow $40 million against the incremental costs from October '21 through the lawsuit. And as part of the settlement, we basically said -- we basically agreed that we won't owe amounts prior to the end of this year. And so what that means is everything that we've been processing on credit cards for the last 2-plus years, there's no incremental fees owed.

很遺憾，和解條款屬於保密訊息，所以我們無法透露太多細節。但我可以試著為您解讀其中的一些要點。回顧2021年10月，谷歌當時計劃開始實施計費政策的變更。而現在，兩年多過去了，情況依然如此。谷歌要求我們預留4000萬美元，用於支付從2021年10月到訴訟期間的額外費用。作為和解協議的一部分，我們基本上同意，在今年年底之前無需支付任何費用。這意味著，過去兩年多來我們透過信用卡處理的所有交易，都不會產生任何額外費用。

And I think if you go back to our earnings release in May of 2022, we estimated that the change in policy was probably about a $6 million per month cost. And so you can probably do the math on those savings over that period of time that I just enumerated. So that's clear value. We don't owe any more money, and we're getting back to $40 million. So that's how we calculate the initial piece of value.

我認為，回顧我們2022年5月的財報，我們當時估計政策調整每月成本約為600萬美元。因此，您可以計算一下我剛才提到的那段時間節省的金額。這顯然是一筆可觀的收益。我們不再需要支付任何費用，而且我們的財務狀況也恢復到了4000萬美元。這就是我們計算初始價值的方式。

And then there's the second piece of value, which is the ongoing arrangement that we're entering into with Google, a new partnership with Google across their myriad services, which includes distribution, includes marketing, includes cloud services. It includes other things that we do with them. So it's a broad partnership.

其次，還有第二個價值點，那就是我們與Google正在建立的持續合作關係，這是一項涵蓋谷歌眾多服務的新夥伴關係，包括分銷、行銷、雲端服務以及其他我們與他們合作的項目。所以這是一項廣泛的合作。

And basically, the settlement agreement -- the new partnership agreement says that we will implement user choice billing. We will pay the fees that are required under that policy, which is 11% and 26%. And as a result of the new broad partnership, we're going to get benefits such that we essentially offset the impact of the implementation of user choice billing. And so we view that as largely neutral in the '24, '25 and '26 period, and we'll kind of go from there.

基本上，新的合作協議規定，我們將實施使用者自主選擇計費方式。我們將支付該政策要求的費用，分別為11%和26%。由於這項新的廣泛合作，我們將獲得收益，從而基本上抵消實施用戶自主選擇計費方式的影響。因此，我們認為在2024、2025和2026年期間，這方面的影響基本上是中性，之後我們會根據實際情況再做調整。

As you also, I'm sure, know and asked about, there's a lot of changes afoot on the regulatory front, on the legal front related to app store policies. There's frequently decisions coming down that basically question the fairness of the current policies. And so as a result of that, we think it's likely that over time, there will be more change to the app store ecosystem. Importantly, we haven't assumed any changes in our financial outlook for 2024 as a result of any regulatory or legal actions. But I think it's fair to assume that over time, there will be some, and so we'll quantify those at the appropriate time.

如您所知，也正如您所問，目前在監管和法律層面，尤其是與應用商店政策相關的方面，正在發生許多變化。常常會有一些裁決出台，對現有政策的公平性提出質疑。因此，我們認為，隨著時間的推移，應用商店生態系統可能會發生更多變化。重要的是，我們並未將任何監管或法律行動納入2024年的財務預期。但我認為，隨著時間的推移，這些變化是必然存在的，我們將在適當的時候對其進行量化分析。

But we certainly expect to get the benefits of whatever changes occur in whatever jurisdictions globally they occur in, and they're occurring in a lot of jurisdictions. So that's something that we're continuing to watch and we'll continue to monitor and discuss with you as things evolve.

但我們當然期望能從全球各地發生的任何變化中受益，而這些變化正在許多地區發生。因此，我們會持續關注事態發展，並隨著事態發展繼續與您討論。

I'd like to add a couple more points, and Gary, that was a great summary of where we are. I feel now that we're -- like today starting and going forward, feel like we're in a good place with Google, and it really reduces the amount of distraction that we've had as a team, and we can really focus together on growth.

我想再補充幾點，加里，你對我們目前的狀況總結得很好。我覺得從今天開始，我們和Google的關係一直很好，這大大減少了我們團隊之前面臨的干擾，讓我們能夠真正專注於共同發展。

I view this as a reset of our relationship, and it helps our partnership with Google on many fronts, from marketing to surfacing on their store to promotion of our brands and then being at the table to really collaborate around innovation, AI, cloud opportunities. I believe that this can significantly benefit our business, and we look forward to actually working much closer with Google on many of these different fronts.

我認為這是我們雙方關係的重塑，它將在許多方面助力我們與Google的合作，包括行銷、產品在Google應用商店的曝光、品牌推廣，以及在創新、人工智慧和雲端運算等領域展開真正的合作。我相信這將極大地促進我們的業務發展，我們期待在這些方面與Google開展更緊密的合作。

We're also very confident now with our relationship with Google that will help our brands continue to innovate but also improve the ability to reach Android users worldwide. And we can focus day in and day out on how we can grow together and drive product innovation.

我們現在對與Google的合作關係充滿信心，這不僅有助於我們的品牌持續創新，還能提升我們觸達全球安卓用戶的能力。我們可以全心投入如何共同成長和推動產品創新。

The next question comes from Benjamin Black of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的班傑明·布萊克。

Thanks for the disclosure on Hinge, and actually, specifically on Hinge, could you -- can you talk about some of the initiatives that supported this recent momentum that we're seeing? Also, I'd be curious to hear if you anticipate a similar headwind to Payers in the launch of weekly subscriptions like you've seen with Tinder.

感謝您披露有關 Hinge 的資訊。實際上，就 Hinge 而言，您能否談談推動其近期發展勢頭的一些舉措？另外，我很想知道您是否預期 Payers 在推出週訂閱服務時會遇到類似 Tinder 那樣的阻力。

And then lastly, in the past, you said you expect Hinge should be a $1 billion business over the next few years, just given the strong fundamental trends that you're seeing right now. Could you perhaps give us an update on your thoughts as to when that milestone could be hit?

最後，您之前說過，鑑於目前強勁的基本面趨勢，您預計Hinge在未來幾年內將成為市值10億美元的公司。您能否更新一下您對何時能達到這項里程碑的看法？

Thanks for the question, Benjamin. I can take this one. Hinge is a great product and has a super clear brand narrative that continues to resonate in English-speaking markets along with the European markets that we've just expanded to. They've really done a great job of focusing on single high-intent daters and has tremendous momentum and fantastic word of mouth. The combination of natural and driven user growth alongside monetization initiatives is driving accelerating revenue growth. The team continues to build on this position of strength.

謝謝你的提問，班傑明。我可以回答這個問題。 Hinge 是一款很棒的產品，擁有非常清晰的品牌故事，不僅在英語市場，而且在我們剛剛拓展到的歐洲市場也持續引起共鳴。他們非常注重吸引單身且有明確約會意願的用戶，發展勢頭強勁，口碑也非常好。用戶自然成長和主動成長相結合，再加上各種獲利舉措，正在加速推動收入成長。團隊將繼續鞏固這一優勢地位。

To answer your question on weekly subs, the weekly subs at Hinge is actually similar to that at Tinder, but it's less apparent because of Hinge's continued top-of-funnel strength. Like Gary mentioned, we continue to believe that weekly subscription packages were the right decision for the company and our strong driver of revenue growth, and it's what daters want.

關於您提出的每週訂閱問題，Hinge 的每週訂閱模式實際上與 Tinder 類似，但由於 Hinge 在用戶轉換漏斗頂端的持續強勁表現，這一點不太明顯。正如 Gary 所說，我們仍然認為每週訂閱套餐對公司來說是正確的決定，也是我們強勁的收入成長動力，而這正是約會者所需要的。

Now to kind of tackle your $1 billion question, we expect Hinge to generate $400 million in Direct Revenue this year, and we expect a 35-plus percent growth rate for next year. So we're basically adding about $140 million plus in revenue for next year. So if you extrapolate that growth rate as well as the revenue that we're adding, we can get to about $1 billion in maybe 4 to 5 years. Thanks for the question.

現在來回答您關於10億美元的問題，我們預計Hinge今年的直接收入將達到4億美元，並且預計明年的成長率將超過35%。也就是說，我們明年將新增約1.4億美元的收入。如果您將這個成長率以及新增收入進行推算，我們或許可以在4到5年內達到10億美元的目標。謝謝您的提問。

The next question comes from James Heaney of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的詹姆斯希尼。

Just one for Gary. Are the Tinder U.S. price increases still impacting the sequential payer growth in Q4? Or is it really just a weekly subscriber churn dynamic and the weaker top of funnel? Just wanted to put a finer point on that.

給 Gary 一個問題。 Tinder 美國的價格上漲是否仍影響第四季的付費用戶成長？還是說這僅僅是由於每週用戶流失率上升以及漏斗頂端用戶成長放緩造成的？我只是想更清楚地了解這一點。

Sure. Just to make sure that everybody understands, like you do, James, I mean the way we implemented the U.S. price optimizations in Tinder in the U.S. was that not everybody saw the price changes immediately. It's only after you churn for a period of time as a subscriber as a payer that you see the higher prices. And so the effect of that is sort of moving its way through the Tinder payer base on a gradual basis.

當然。為了確保每個人都明白，就像你明白的那樣，詹姆斯，我的意思是，我們在美國Tinder上實施價格優化的方式是，並非所有人都能立即看到價格變化。只有在你作為付費用戶訂閱一段時間後，才會看到更高的價格。因此，這種影響是逐步滲透到Tinder付費用戶群中的。

I would tell you that by now, probably a majority, maybe 60% or so of Tinder Payers have seen the higher prices. So there's still a tail of people who are going to see them over time. And so there's still a modest sequential impact from all that in Q3. I expect there'll be a slightly less -- slightly more modest, I guess, impact on that in Q4. And that will continue and keep declining as an impact but still be there as a lingering impact for the next few quarters. But it is fairly modest. Frankly, it's why you can't really see it on the chart that we have on Page 13 of the shareholder letter. It's such a small impact. And so it's modest, but it's still there and will continue to be so for a bit longer now.

我想說，目前大概有60%左右的Tinder付費用戶已經感受到了價格上漲。所以，隨著時間的推移，仍然會有一部分用戶受到影響。因此，第三季價格上漲帶來的持續影響仍較為輕微。我預計第四季這種影響會略微減弱。這種影響會持續存在並逐漸減弱，但在接下來的幾個季度裡，它仍然會作為一種持續性的影響存在。不過，這種影響相當有限。坦白說，這就是為什麼你在我們致股東信第13頁的圖表中幾乎看不出來的原因。它的影響非常小。所以，雖然影響不大，但它仍然存在，而且還會持續一段時間。

And I would just say on the sequential impacts generally, you've got the impact from the U.S. price increases at Tinder, which is this modest impact that is continuing. And then obviously, we've had the impact from the weekly subs. I think the impact from the weekly subs that we've introduced in 2023 will largely be neutralized by the end of this year. So that's not an ongoing lingering effect into next year as is the case with U.S. price optimizations.

就整體的後續影響而言，我想說的是，首先是Tinder在美國的價格上漲帶來的影響，這種影響雖然不大，但仍在持續。其次，顯然還有周訂閱模式的影響。我認為我們在2023年推出的周訂閱模式的影響將在今年年底基本消除。因此，它的影響不會像美國的價格優化那樣持續到明年。

Now I do want to point out that we're going to continue to optimize prices, introduce weeklies in other markets. They're going to be smaller market than the U.S. or some of these key international markets. But optimizations are something that Tinder is meant to be doing at all times. We didn't do it for a while in the U.S., and we played catch-up this year. But in general, there's an always-on kind of optimization. There's opportunity to roll out weekly subs and price optimization in other markets.

現在我想指出的是，我們將繼續優化價格，並在其他市場推出週付套餐。這些市場的規模會比美國或一些重要的國際市場小。但優化一直是Tinder的職責所在。我們之前在美國市場有一段時間沒有做到這一點，今年我們一直在努力追趕。但總的來說，優化是我們持續進行的工作。我們有機會在其他市場推出週付套餐和價格優化方案。

And so we'll do it. But because it's going to be in smaller markets, the effects of that will be much more modest over time. This year was the bigger shock to the system, and we're working our way through that, and we should be through that very soon. So I think that should be encouraging for everybody.

所以我們會這麼做。但由於主要針對的是規模較小的市場，其影響會隨著時間的推移而大大減弱。今年對整個體系的衝擊更大，我們正在努力克服，應該很快就能渡過難關。我認為這對所有人來說都是個好消息。

The next question comes from Lauren Schenk of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的勞倫·申克。

This is Nathan Feather on for Lauren. Can you talk through the seasonality of Tinder marketing within 3Q and to what extent, if any, it impacted payer growth during the quarter? And then maybe taking a step back more broadly, how should we think about the lag time between marketing, user growth and revenue growth?

這裡是Nathan Feather，他正在替Lauren提問。您能否談談Tinder第三季的行銷季節性，以及這種季節性對當季付費用戶成長的影響程度（如果有的話）？另外，從更宏觀的角度來看，我們應該如何看待行銷、用戶成長和收入成長之間的延遲時間？

Thanks for the question. When we originally launched the It Starts With a Swipe Campaign, we planned to have multiple phases throughout the year. So seasonally, with Tinder, end of July going into August tends to be slower months for Tinder. So we took the opportunity between these phases to refresh the content for the balance of the year.

感謝您的提問。我們最初推出「從滑動開始」活動時，計劃全年分多個階段進行。考慮到 Tinder 的季節性因素，7 月底到 8 月初通常是 Tinder 的淡季。因此，我們利用這兩個階段之間的空檔期，更新了活動內容，以便全年使用。

It's important to note that during this time period, we're still targeting young women, and we did not see the same pullback in new users with this demo. We expect to take an overall step back in new users and have some impact of Payers in Q4, which we've already articulated. We have learned a lot from this. I'm pushing the team now to have a consistent, steady beat on marketing going forward, especially in our larger markets.

值得注意的是，在此期間，我們的目標用戶仍然是年輕女性，而且我們並未看到新用戶數量出現相同的下滑。我們預計第四季度新用戶數量將整體下降，付費用戶數量也會受到一定影響，這一點我們之前已經明確指出。我們從中吸取了很多經驗教訓。我現在正督促團隊在未來的行銷工作中保持穩定、持續的節奏，尤其是在我們的大市場。

In that time period, we are also able to reallocate some spend into our college outreach marketing and the launch of our Matchmaker feature. Both of these campaigns integrated well-known rappers and targeted our Gen Z demographic but was closely knit in with product innovation at the same time. As you can all see, these campaigns have created a tremendous amount of buzz and excitement around the product and are a key part and ingredient to retelling the Tinder narrative. Thanks for the question.

在此期間，我們也能將部分預算重新分配到大學推廣行銷和「配對」功能的推出。這兩項活動都邀請了知名饒舌歌手參與，目標受眾是Z世代，同時又與產品創新緊密結合。如大家所見，這些活動為產品帶來了巨大的關注度和熱度，也是重塑Tinder品牌故事的關鍵組成部分。謝謝你的提問。

The next question comes from Ygal Arounian of Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。

I want to ask about Tinder premium and early signs you're seeing from that here. And then what contribution is expected in -- both in 4Q and in the preliminary outlook for next year?

我想問一下關於Tinder Premium以及您目前觀察到的早期跡象。另外，預計第四季和明年的初步展望中，Tinder Premium將做出哪些貢獻？

I can take that one. I'm really proud of the product that the team has built and launched into the market. The amount of invites for our SELECT that have gone out are still at a very low level. Tinder and the team have been working really hard to optimize the onboarding process and help users and SELECT members really understand the value proposition.

我可以接受這個結果。我為團隊打造並推向市場的這款產品感到非常自豪。目前，我們 SELECT 會員的邀請數量仍然非常少。 Tinder 和團隊一直在努力優化註冊流程，幫助用戶和 SELECT 會員真正理解其價值主張。

So we're continuing to iterate, learn from our users and will continue to ramp up the number of invites. We do continue to feel optimistic about the financial potential of the product, and we believe that it will continue and we can generate tens of millions of dollars of revenue in the next year.

因此，我們將繼續迭代，從用戶那裡學習，並繼續增加邀請數量。我們仍然對產品的財務潛力保持樂觀，相信它將繼續發展，我們明年可以創造數千萬美元的收入。

The next question comes from Dan Salmon of New Street Research.

下一個問題來自新街研究公司的丹‧薩爾蒙。

So I've got a 2-part question here. I just want to kind of circle back about macro a little bit. I know you mentioned the impact of higher interest rates, the conflict in the Middle East in the shareholder letter. But could you elaborate a little bit on what you see as a deterioration in macro conditions, especially in light of considerable GDP growth and a resilient consumer in the U.S.?

我這裡有個兩部分的問題。我想再稍微談談宏觀經濟方面的問題。我知道您在致股東信中提到了利率上升和中東衝突的影響。但您能否詳細解釋一下您認為宏觀經濟狀況惡化的具體表現，尤其是在美國GDP成長顯著且消費者消費能力強勁的情況下？

And then second related part, could we just circle back a little bit on the impact of student loan repayments? It sounds like it's one of the things impacting à la carte, but it also seems like there's some changes to how younger users engage with à la carte in the first place. So perhaps you can parse that a little bit more.

其次，我們能否再稍微探討一下學生貸款償還的影響？這似乎是影響點餐服務的因素之一，但年輕用戶使用點餐服務的方式似乎也發生了一些變化。您能否對此進行更深入的分析？

Sure. Let me give that a try, Dan. I think on the student loan repayments, this was first announced in July that there was going to be a resumption. And we've been watching the trend at Tinder à la carte since then, and we have seen some weakness in U.S. versus the rest of the world, where this is obviously not an issue, on the Tinder à la carte revenue. It's probably 1 or 2 points of annual growth that it's costing. And we're looking at the cohorts, from an age perspective, of people at Tinder that we would expect would be impacted by potentially having student loans to start repaying again.

當然。讓我來試試，丹。關於學生貸款償還，最早是在七月宣布的恢復還款計畫。從那時起，我們就一直在關注 Tinder 單點付費服務的發展趨勢，發現美國市場相比世界其他地區（顯然這並非問題）的 Tinder 單點付費服務收入有所下降。這大概會造成每年 1 到 2 個百分點的成長損失。我們正在從年齡的角度分析 Tinder 用戶群體，看看哪些群體可能會受到學生貸款恢復償還的影響。

And that's where we can see that there is that impact. So we have enough data, global versus U.S. and by age cohort, that we can try to estimate what the impact is. And we do think there's some. It started in July. When it was first announced, we've been watching it through October when the bills came around, and now people will have to start paying them here in November. So it's definitely something to watch and something we're trying to factor in to our Q4 and 2024 outlook. And I think we've been able to do that. So that's one factor.

正因如此，我們才能看到這種影響。我們掌握了足夠的數據，包括全球與美國的數據以及按年齡劃分的數據，因此可以嘗試估算其影響。我們確實認為存在一定的影響。這項政策從7月開始實施。從最初宣佈到10月份帳單到期，我們一直在密切關注，現在人們將從11月份開始支付這些帳單。所以這絕對是值得關注的因素，也是我們試圖將其納入第四季和2024年展望的考量。我認為我們已經做到了這一點。這是其中一個因素。

On the other side that you mentioned, the other thing that you mentioned around the resiliency of the consumer, of course, you're right that the consumer has held on well through the course of this year. And GDP growth in the most recent quarter has been very strong, and that's all correct. I think what we're focused on, though, is are we kind of getting to the end of the consumer strength, and we're starting to see signs as we look at macro data around savings rates, around credit card delinquencies and things like that, that indicates to us that there's some potential risk around the consumer.

關於您提到的另一點，也就是消費者的韌性，您說得對，今年以來消費者的表現確實不錯。最近一個季度的GDP成長也非常強勁，這些都屬實。不過，我認為我們現在關注的是，消費者的這種韌性是否已經接近尾聲。從儲蓄率、信用卡逾期率等宏觀數據來看，我們已經開始看到一些跡象，顯示消費者方面存在一些潛在風險。

So sitting here, trying to prognosticate what's going to happen in our business and with the consumer for 2024, I think the trends that we're seeing around some evolving consumer weakness leads us to be cautious about 2024 and to try to factor in some possibility that the consumer really does weaken over the course of '24. It feels like the prudent thing to do right now as we're providing the initial outlook.

所以，坐在這裡，試圖預測我們業務和消費者在2024年的發展趨勢，我認為我們觀察到的消費者疲軟的趨勢，讓我們對2024年保持謹慎，並試圖將消費者在2024年期間確實疲軟的可能性考慮在內。當我們給予初步展望時，這似乎是目前謹慎的做法。

I'm more than happy to be wrong on that. And for somebody to come back and say, "You guys were too conservative. That didn't happen in the economy, and things ended up being stronger than expected in '24." But I think that right now, kind of taking into account all of the factors that we know, it does indicate to us that being a little bit more prudent on our expectations around the consumer makes sense. And given that we have a lot of consumers at Tinder, who are on the younger side, who tend to have less discretionary income, we could feel a little bit of that impact, and so we've tried to factor that in. If it ends up not being the case, then I would say there's upside to our expectations for next year.

我非常樂意看到自己的判斷是錯的。如果有人事後反駁說：「你們太保守了。經濟狀況並沒有像預期那樣好轉，2024年的情況比預期要強勁得多。」但我認為，就目前而言，考慮到我們已知的所有因素，這確實表明，我們對消費者的預期採取更謹慎的態度是合理的。鑑於Tinder的用戶群體中有很多年輕人，他們的可支配收入往往較低，我們可能會感受到一些影響，所以我們已經努力將這一點考慮在內。如果最終結果並非如此，那麼我認為我們對明年的預期還有進步的空間。

I think we're at time. Hopefully, that was helpful, Dan, and for everyone else's questions. Thank you for asking them this morning. We appreciate everyone joining, and we look forward to talking to everyone again on our next earnings call for Q4, which will be at the end of January and early February. Thank you very much.

我想我們時間到了。希望這對丹以及其他各位的問題有所幫助。感謝大家今天早上的提問。感謝各位的參與，我們期待在1月底2月初舉行的第四季財報電話會議上再次與大家交流。非常感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的報告，您可以斷開連接了。