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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Match Group second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
歡迎參加 Match Group 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Tanny Shelburne。請繼續。
Tanny Shelburne - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Tanny Shelburne - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements.
謝謝接線員,大家早安。今天的電話會議將由執行長 Bernard Kim 主持;以及總裁兼財務長 Gary Swidler。他們會做一些簡短的評論,然後我們將開放提問。在開始之前,我需要提醒大家,在這次電話會議中,我們可能會討論我們的前景和未來的表現。這些前瞻性陳述之前可能會出現「我們期望」、「我們相信」、「我們預期」或類似陳述等字眼。
These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,我們的實際結果可能與今天表達的觀點有重大差異。其中一些風險已在我們的收益發布和向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中闡述。說到這裡,我想把電話轉給 BK。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Tanny. Good morning, and thank you all for joining today's call. Overall, we are pleased with our Q2 results and the progress we have made across our portfolio. Over my two years, it feels like currents are finally flowing with us and we have key elements working in our favor across the company.
謝謝你,坦尼。早安,感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。總體而言,我們對第二季的業績以及我們在整個投資組合中取得的進展感到滿意。在我的兩年裡,感覺潮流終於在我們身邊流動,我們在整個公司都有了對我們有利的關鍵要素。
This is the beginning of a broader transformation as Tinder continues to show stabilization. Hinge is a rocket ship, expanding rapidly. Azar continues to perform strongly and marketing at Pairs has driven user strength and we're executing on a number of great initiatives throughout the entire company.
隨著 Tinder 繼續表現出穩定,這是更廣泛轉型的開始。鉸鍊是一艘正在迅速擴張的火箭。 Azar 持續表現強勁,Pairs 的行銷提升了用戶實力,我們正在整個公司執行許多偉大的舉措。
Over the last several quarters, Tinder has been working hard to improve the user experience, and we're now starting to see initial signs of progress. User and payer trends are stabilizing, and we expect them to continue to improve from here. We expect strong sequential payer growth in Q3 and better year-over-year MAU trends in the second half of the year.
在過去的幾個季度中,Tinder 一直在努力改善用戶體驗,現在我們開始看到初步的進展跡象。用戶和付款人趨勢正在穩定,我們預計它們將繼續改善。我們預計第三季付款人將出現強勁的環比成長,下半年的每月活躍用戶數將比趨勢年減。
As the largest dating app in the world, it's Tinder's job to deliver for its users, which in turn helps attract new users. Tinder is building on its fun legacy and its iconic swipe experience by continuing to increase authenticity and realness and by setting the industry standard for trust and safety. We believe this will address some of the concerns that users have been vocal about more recently.
作為世界上最大的約會應用程序,Tinder 的工作是為用戶提供服務,從而幫助吸引新用戶。 Tinder 正在以其有趣的傳統和標誌性的滑動體驗為基礎,不斷提高真實性和真實性,並制定信任和安全的行業標準。我們相信這將解決用戶最近直言不諱的一些擔憂。
Over the next 12 months, Tinder intends to integrate AI more deeply to make the dating journey simpler and more effective, such that we expect daters to look at Tinder and see an exciting, innovative, and fresh experience.
在接下來的 12 個月裡,Tinder 打算更深入地整合人工智慧,讓約會之旅變得更簡單、更有效,這樣我們期望約會者在 Tinder 上看到令人興奮、創新和新鮮的體驗。
Tinder is already making strides as it works to achieve this vision. They've been working tirelessly to clean up its ecosystem, enhanced tools are being tested to increase authenticity with more to come in Q3 and AI-driven tools, like Photo Selector are being deployed to make the Tinder experience easier and more effective.
Tinder 已經在努力實現這一願景並取得了長足進步。他們一直在不懈地努力清理其生態系統,正在測試增強的工具以提高真實性,第三季將推出更多工具,並且正在部署照片選擇器等人工智慧驅動的工具,以使Tinder 體驗更輕鬆、更有效。
Next year, I expect an even bolder evolution of product to vastly improve its core matching experience. You've heard a constant theme of innovation from us and it's happening. But keep in mind, when you have a $2 billion-plus revenue business and nearly 50 million MAU globally, all interacting in a connected and delicate ecosystem, innovation requires some pretty elite level of gymnastics.
明年,我預計產品將進行更大膽的演變,以大幅改善其核心匹配體驗。您已經從我們這裡聽到了一個持續不斷的創新主題,而且它正在發生。但請記住,當你在全球擁有超過 20 億美元的收入業務和近 5000 萬月活躍用戶,並且所有這些都在一個互聯且微妙的生態系統中互動時,創新需要一些相當精英水平的體操。
This effort requires a willingness to reimagine the core while building off of what already makes Tinder, Tinder. It's what we began doing with a major ecosystem cleanup initiated mid last year. And while the results weren't entirely predictable and certainly not linear, we believe they are paying off.
這項工作需要在 Tinder 現有基礎上重新構想核心的意願。這就是我們從去年年中啟動的重大生態系統清理行動開始做的事情。雖然結果並不完全可預測,而且肯定不是線性的,但我們相信它們正在得到回報。
We expect Tinder's initiatives to be iterative and continue to build off one another and to be coupled with continued strong marketing. There is even more to come in the second half of this year and into 2025 and I'm excited to share further progress with you at our Investor Day.
我們預計 Tinder 的舉措將持續迭代,並繼續相互促進,並與持續強勁的營銷相結合。今年下半年和 2025 年還會有更多的事情發生,我很高興能在投資者日與您分享進一步的進展。
Hinge continues to show remarkable performance, growing direct revenue nearly 50% year over year in Q2. It continues to rapidly grow its share of downloads in most of its markets. New product features like Your Turn Limits are driving higher quality conversations. Its AI-enabled Top Photo and Photo Finder are making the user journey meaningfully better and users are getting out on great dates even faster.
Hinge持續表現出色,第二季直接營收年增近50%。它在大多數市場的下載份額繼續快速增長。 「輪次限制」等新產品功能正在推動更高品質的對話。其支援人工智慧的熱門照片和照片查找器使用戶的旅程變得更加有意義,並且用戶可以更快地度過美好的約會。
Hinge's new marketing campaigns are also resonating, driving new user growth, and getting incredibly positive press coverage. We expect that over the coming quarters, Match Group will own both the leading dating app in the world with durable growth and the fastest-growing at-scale dating app for intention daters as well as a host of growing brands behind them. We're also nurturing other growth brands across the portfolio.
Hinge 的新行銷活動也引起了共鳴,推動了新用戶的成長,並獲得了令人難以置信的積極媒體報告。我們預計,在未來幾個季度,Match Group 將擁有全球領先且持續增長的約會應用程式和針對意向約會者增長最快的大規模約會應用程序,以及其背後的眾多不斷成長的品牌。我們也在整個產品組合中培育其他成長型品牌。
Azar's user growth and financial momentum are strong, driven by cutting-edge AI product innovation and a successful expansion into Europe. We also continue to add demographically-focused emerging brands to our portfolio.
在尖端人工智慧產品創新和成功擴展到歐洲的推動下,Azar 的用戶成長和財務勢頭強勁。我們也繼續在我們的產品組合中添加以人口為中心的新興品牌。
We see clear opportunities to build new social experiences and leverage the latest in technology. Our unyielding commitment to trust and safety, along with our utilization of AI in a safe and responsible way will clearly benefit users across our entire portfolio.
我們看到了建立新的社交體驗和利用最新技術的明顯機會。我們對信任和安全的堅定承諾,以及我們以安全和負責任的方式利用人工智慧,顯然將使我們整個產品組合的用戶受益。
In other areas of our business, we're refocusing our efforts to play to our strengths. We decided to exit live streaming services in our dating apps and sunset Hyperconnect's Hakuna app, which provides live streaming services, primarily in Korea and Japan.
在我們業務的其他領域,我們正在重新集中精力發揮我們的優勢。我們決定退出約會應用程式和日落 Hyperconnect 的 Hakuna 應用程式中的直播服務,該應用程式主要在韓國和日本提供直播服務。
While live streaming services brought some benefits to our portfolio and users, a couple of things have changed since we undertook these businesses, which have made them less beneficial. Since the pandemic with people sitting on Zooms all day, the novelty of live streaming video has declined. Additionally, these businesses require significant further investment and our financial profiles are below what we'd ultimately like our brands to achieve.
雖然直播服務為我們的產品組合和用戶帶來了一些好處,但自從我們開展這些業務以來,一些事情發生了變化,這使得它們的收益減少了。自從疫情爆發以來,人們整天坐在 Zoom 上,直播影片的新鮮感已經下降。此外,這些業務需要大量的進一步投資,而我們的財務狀況低於我們最終希望我們的品牌實現的目標。
We expect exiting live streaming along with other initiatives across the portfolio will result in a workforce reduction of approximately 6% globally, which we expect to result in incremental annual cost savings of approximately $13 million, which is in addition to our previously disclosed cost saving expectations from our tech re-platforming efforts.
我們預計,退出直播以及整個產品組合中的其他舉措將導致全球勞動力減少約 6%,我們預計這將導致年度成本節省約 1300 萬美元,這不包括我們先前披露的成本節省預期來自我們的技術平台重組工作。
It is important to reiterate the value that Hyperconnect has brought to Match Group, including a strongly growing asset in Azar and world-class AI expertise. The Hyperconnect team has been integral in creating several of the AI enabled features that have been introduced across our brands, including Tinder's Photo Selector and Hinge's Top Photo and Photo Finder. This is just one example of how we're leveraging common technologies across our portfolio, but tailoring them to each specific brand.
重要的是要重申 Hyperconnect 為 Match Group 帶來的價值,包括 Azar 強勁成長的資產和世界一流的人工智慧專業知識。 Hyperconnect 團隊在創建我們各個品牌推出的多項人工智慧功能方面發揮了不可或缺的作用,其中包括 Tinder 的照片選擇器以及 Hinge 的熱門照片和照片查找器。這只是我們如何在我們的產品組合中利用通用技術,但針對每個特定品牌進行客製化的範例。
With this in mind, we plan to redeploy some of our retained Hyperconnect talent to Azar, Tinder, and Hinge, especially given the significant opportunity that we see to further embed AI-driven capabilities into our brands.
考慮到這一點,我們計劃將一些保留的 Hyperconnect 人才重新部署到 Azar、Tinder 和 Hinge,特別是考慮到我們看到進一步將人工智慧驅動的功能嵌入到我們的品牌中的重大機會。
We recognize that shareholders rightfully expect both near and long-term results. We not only embrace that challenge, but we think it's exactly how innovation should occur. At Tinder, innovation in a large scale ecosystem makes it difficult to predict exactly which features will succeed and when. But the market opportunity is there, the vision is clear, and the team is executing.
我們認識到股東對近期和長期業績的期望是合理的。我們不僅迎接這項挑戰,我們認為這正是創新應該發生的方式。在 Tinder,大規模生態系統中的創新使得很難準確預測哪些功能會成功以及何時成功。但市場機會就在那裡,願景清晰,團隊正在執行。
Hinge's momentum is undeniable and is on its path to become a $1 billion revenue business. And we're being financially disciplined in undertaking all this product innovation, which we expect will result in sustained user growth.
Hinge 的發展勢頭是不可否認的,並且正在成為一家收入達 10 億美元的企業。我們在進行所有這些產品創新時都遵守財務紀律,我們預計這將帶來持續的用戶成長。
Moreover, where we don't see as clear a path to growth, we're cutting back on cost as is the case with our evergreen brands. We understand that if we can't deliver a return to solid sustainable growth, other choices will need to be considered.
此外,在我們看不到明確的成長道路的地方,我們正在削減成本,就像我們的常青品牌一樣。我們明白,如果我們無法恢復穩健的永續成長,就需要考慮其他選擇。
We think that doomsday scenarios around dating apps are way overblown and you can start to see that in our results this quarter. We have product work to do, but once we do that, we are confident that the growth potential for our business is significant.
我們認為圍繞約會應用程式的世界末日場景被誇大了,您可以在我們本季度的業績中開始看到這一點。我們還有產品工作要做,但一旦我們做到了,我們就有信心我們業務的成長潛力是巨大的。
Dating apps are still the best way for people to meet and we intend to continue to capture that opportunity. We welcome shareholder input and we remain committed to the delivery of increased shareholder value. We expect demonstrable progress quarter over quarter in our innovation and product development efforts. We believe return of capital can be a nice component of shareholder return, given the highly profitable and cash flow generative nature of our business.
約會應用程式仍然是人們見面的最佳方式,我們打算繼續抓住這個機會。我們歡迎股東提出意見,並持續致力於增加股東價值。我們預計我們的創新和產品開發工作將逐季取得明顯進展。我們相信,鑑於我們業務的高利潤和現金流生成性質,資本回報可以成為股東回報的一個很好的組成部分。
And we've been buying back our stock aggressively because we believe it represents a terrific long-term investment. We look forward to sharing a deeper dive in our first ever Investor Day in December, where I'm excited to showcase the management team behind these incredible apps. With that, I will hand it over to Gary.
我們一直在積極回購我們的股票,因為我們相信它代表著一項出色的長期投資。我們期待在 12 月的首個投資者日分享更深入的見解,我很高興能在會上展示這些令人難以置信的應用程式背後的管理團隊。這樣,我就把它交給加里了。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, BK, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We exceeded our expectations in Q2 on both the top and bottom line despite some unexpected headwinds. Match Group's total revenue was $864 million, up 4% year over year, while our FX neutral total revenue was $892 million, up 8% year over year. We experienced $6 million more in FX headwinds than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call.
謝謝,BK,大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們。儘管存在一些意想不到的阻力,但我們第二季的營收和利潤都超出了我們的預期。 Match Group 的總營收為 8.64 億美元,年增 4%,而我們的外匯中性總收入為 8.92 億美元,較去年同期成長 8%。我們經歷的外匯逆風比我們上次財報電話會議時的預期多了 600 萬美元。
In the quarter, revenue per payer grew 9%, while payers declined 5% year over year. Tinder delivered $480 million of direct revenue, up 1% year over year, up 4% FX neutral. Tinder payers declined 8% year over year to approximately 9.6 million, an improvement from the 9% year-over-year decline last quarter and above our expectations. Payers were down 78,000 sequentially. Tinder's Q2 RPP increased 10% year over year.
本季度,每位付款人的收入成長了 9%,而付款人的收入則年減了 5%。 Tinder 的直接收入為 4.8 億美元,年成長 1%,匯率中立成長 4%。 Tinder 付費用戶年減 8% 至約 960 萬,較上季年減 9% 有所改善,也高於我們的預期。付款人比上一季減少了 78,000 人。 Tinder 第二季度的 RPP 年比成長 10%。
While growth in subscription revenue at Tinder was solid at 7% year over year in Q2, Tinder continued to experience pressure on a la carte revenue, which was down 17% year over year in the quarter. Tinder is rolling out various initiatives to address the ALC weakness, including unbundling current features, such as Passport and See Who Likes You into ALC to attract users who may not be as open to subscriptions. Both are in test now.
儘管第二季 Tinder 的訂閱收入年增 7%,但 Tinder 的點菜收入繼續面臨壓力,該季度年減 17%。 Tinder 正在推出各種舉措來解決 ALC 的弱點,包括將 Passport 和 See Who Likes You 等當前功能分拆到 ALC 中,以吸引可能不太願意訂閱的用戶。兩者現在都在測試中。
Additionally, the team will shortly be testing two new ALC features, one that contextualizes someone's likes and another that helps foster ongoing engagement after matching. As a result, we're optimistic that Q2 will be a trough for declines in year-over-year ALC revenue and that trends will gradually improve in the second half of the year.
此外,該團隊很快將測試兩項新的 ALC 功能,一項可根據某人的喜好進行背景化,另一項可幫助促進配對後的持續參與。因此,我們樂觀地認為第二季將是 ALC 收入年減的低谷,下半年趨勢將逐漸改善。
Hinge direct revenue was $134 million, up 48% year over year in Q2. Hinge payers were up 24% year over year to nearly 1.5 million while RPP of $30 was up 19% year over year. MG Asia's direct revenue declined 4% to $74 million, up 9% on an FX neutral basis.
Hinge 第二季直接營收為 1.34 億美元,年增 48%。 Hinge 付款人年增 24%,達到近 150 萬,而 30 美元的 RPP 較去年同期成長 19%。 MG Asia 的直接收入下降 4% 至 7,400 萬美元,在匯率中立的基礎上成長 9%。
Azar direct revenue declined 1% in the quarter, but was up 14% year over year FX neutral despite still not being able to access the Saudi market as its European expansion continued to contribute to results. Payers direct revenue fell 10% in the quarter, but was up 2% year-over-year FX neutral.
Azar 本季直接收入下降 1%,但在匯率中立的情況下年增 14%,儘管其歐洲擴張繼續為業績做出貢獻,但仍無法進入沙烏地阿拉伯市場。本季付款人直接收入下降 10%,但與去年同期相比(匯率中立)成長 2%。
Evergreen & Emerging brands direct revenue was $161 million, a decline of 8% year over year driven by the Evergreen brands, which declined 13% year over year, while the Emerging brands collectively grew direct revenue 17% year over year in Q2.
長榮及新興品牌直接營收為 1.61 億美元,年減 8%,其中長榮品牌較去年同期下降 13%,而新興品牌第二季直接營收整體較去年同期成長 17%。
Focusing on user trends, we saw sequential stability in Tinder's MAU, which were down 9% year over year in Q2, as was the case in Q1. MAU at Tinder have now been relatively stable since March. A large decline in MAU began in July of last year, driven in large part by changes we made to Tinder's trust and safety policies to remove people who are not truly on the app to connect, that has now begun to stabilize.
關注用戶趨勢,我們發現 Tinder 的月活躍用戶數季比穩定,第二季年減 9%,與第一季的情況相同。自 3 月以來,Tinder 的月活躍用戶數一直相對穩定。 MAU 從去年7 月開始大幅下降,這在很大程度上是由於我們對Tinder 的信任和安全政策進行了更改,以刪除那些沒有真正在應用程式上進行聯繫的人,這種情況現在已經開始穩定下來。
With much of this impact now behind us and given Tinder's various ongoing product and marketing initiatives, we're confident Tinder's year-over-year MAU declines should continue to moderate as this year passes.
現在大部分影響已經過去,考慮到 Tinder 正在進行的各種產品和行銷舉措,我們相信今年 Tinder 的月活躍用戶數同比下降幅度應該會繼續放緩。
Hinge's user growth continues to be very strong across its key markets with 14% year-over-year download growth and 21% year-over-year MAU growth in Q2. The app gained significant share in Q2, ranking as the number two dating app across its collective English-speaking markets in May and June, including number one in the UK, Australia, Ireland, Canada, and number three in the US.
Hinge 在其主要市場的用戶成長持續強勁,第二季下載量較去年同期成長 14%,每月活躍用戶數較去年同期成長 21%。該應用程式在第二季度獲得了顯著的份額,在 5 月和 6 月的整個英語市場中排名第二,其中在英國、澳大利亞、愛爾蘭、加拿大排名第一,在美國排名第三。
In its European expansion markets in aggregate, Hinge ranked number two by downloads in June and jumped up the charts in most of the key countries/regions, including France and Germany. Switching to profitability. Match Group Q2 AOI was $306 million, up 2% year over year for a margin of 35%. Operating income was $205 million in Q2, down 5% year over year for a margin of 24%.
在其歐洲擴張市場中,Hinge 6 月下載量排名第二,並在法國和德國等大多數主要國家的排行榜上躍升。轉向盈利。 Match Group 在第二季 AOI 為 3.06 億美元,年增 2%,利潤率為 35%。第二季營業收入為 2.05 億美元,年減 5%,利潤率為 24%。
Q2 Match Group AOI and OI each benefited from the increase in revenue as a result of growth at Hinge and other brands and lower cost of revenue, partially offset by higher selling and marketing expenses, higher G&A expenses, which was primarily due to the new Canada digital services tax and higher product development costs, which was primarily due to increased headcount in product at Tinder.
第二季度,Match Group AOI 和OI 均受益於Hinge 和其他品牌的成長以及收入成本降低帶來的收入成長,但部分被銷售和行銷費用增加、一般及行政費用增加所抵消,這主要是由於新的加拿大數位服務稅和更高的產品開發成本,這主要是由於 Tinder 產品人員數量的增加。
The increase in selling and marketing spend was primarily at Hinge, Tinder, and certain Emerging brands, partially offset by declines in marketing spend at other brands in our portfolio. Operating income was further impacted by increased SBC expense due to higher headcount and lower forfeitures of equity awards in 2024 than in 2023 and higher depreciation expense due to increases in internally developed software place and service, including at Tinder and Hyperconnect.
銷售和行銷支出的增加主要來自 Hinge、Tinder 和某些新興品牌,但部分被我們投資組合中其他品牌行銷支出的下降所抵消。營業收入進一步受到以下因素的影響:SBC 費用增加(由於 2024 年員工人數增加、股權獎勵沒收數量低於 2023 年),以及內部開發軟體位置和服務(包括 Tinder 和 Hyperconnect)增加導致折舊費用增加。
In Q2, we repurchased 6.4 million of our shares at an average price of approximately $31 per share on a trade date basis for a total of $197 million. Year to date, we have deployed just slightly more than 100% of our free cash flow for repurchases, well above our latest commitment to deploy more than 75% of our free cash flow for buybacks.
第二季度,我們回購了 640 萬股股票,交易日平均價格約為每股 31 美元,總金額為 1.97 億美元。今年迄今為止,我們已將略高於 100% 的自由現金流用於回購,遠高於我們最新承諾的將 75% 以上的自由現金流用於回購。
Since we resumed buybacks in May 2022, we have repurchased 35 million shares or 12% of the then outstanding shares. This would be 28 million shares or 10% net of newly issued shares for employee equity plans.
自 2022 年 5 月恢復回購以來,我們已回購 3,500 萬股,即當時已發行股份的 12%。這將是 2,800 萬股,即扣除員工股權計畫新發行股份的 10%。
With our net leverage below our 3 times target at 2.4 times and $844 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, we have ample financial flexibility to continue returning at least 75% of our free cash flow to shareholders for the remainder of the year, which remains our objective.
由於我們的淨槓桿率低於3 倍目標(2.4 倍),且現金和現金等價物以及短期投資為8.44 億美元,因此我們擁有充足的財務靈活性,可以在剩餘時間內繼續將至少75% 的自由現金流返還給股東。
For Q3 '24, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $895 million to $905 million, up 2% to 3% year over year, which would be 4% to 5% FX neutral. This range reflects the lost revenue from our exit of live streaming services, which we estimate will be about $8 million for the quarter, given we are exiting it mid-quarter.
對於 24 年第三季度,我們預計 Match Group 的總營收為 8.95 億美元至 9.05 億美元,年增 2% 至 3%,其中匯率中性為 4% 至 5%。這個範圍反映了我們退出直播串流服務造成的收入損失,考慮到我們將在季度中期退出,我們估計本季的收入損失約為 800 萬美元。
Note that FX headwinds for the second half have worsened by about 1 point since our last earnings call. For both Tinder and the whole company, we currently expect FX to be nearly a 2-point year-over-year headwind in the back half of the year.
請注意,自從我們上次財報電話會議以來,下半年的外匯逆風已經惡化了約 1 個百分點。對於 Tinder 和整個公司來說,我們目前預計今年下半年外匯將年減近 2 個百分點。
We expect direct revenue at Tinder to be $505 million to $510 million in Q3, roughly flat year over year and up approximately 2.5% FX neutral. This range reflects improving year-over-year MAU and payer trends and moderating year-over-year RPP gains. It also reflects the improvement in year-over-year ALC revenue trends I mentioned earlier due to new initiatives in this area.
我們預計第三季 Tinder 的直接收入將為 5.05 億美元至 5.1 億美元,年比大致持平,匯率中立成長約 2.5%。這一範圍反映了逐年月活躍用戶數和付款人趨勢的改善以及逐年RPP 增幅的放緩。它也反映了我之前提到的由於該領域的新舉措而導致 ALC 收入趨勢的同比改善。
We expect Tinder payers to decline at around 5% year over year in Q3, a further improvement from Q2 year-over-year levels, leading to positive sequential payer additions in Q3 of approximately 250,000. We expect continued improvement in year-over-year Tinder payers in Q4, though we expect typical seasonality to impact Q4 sequential payer additions.
我們預計第三季 Tinder 付費用戶將年減 5% 左右,較第二季的年比水準進一步改善,從而導致第三季付費用戶數量較上季增加約 25 萬人。我們預計第四季度 Tinder 付款人數量將繼續同比增長,但我們預計典型的季節性因素將影響第四季度連續付款人的增加。
Across our other brands, we expect Q3 direct revenue of $375 million to $380 million, up 5% to 6% year over year, up 7% to 8% FX neutral. Within our other brands, we expect Hinge to deliver approximately $145 million of direct revenue in Q3, year-over-year growth of 35%.
對於我們的其他品牌,我們預計第三季直接收入為 3.75 億至 3.8 億美元,年增 5% 至 6%,匯率中性成長 7% 至 8%。在我們的其他品牌中,我們預計 Hinge 在第三季將實現約 1.45 億美元的直接收入,年增 35%。
And as Hinge strength continues, but it anniversaries the introduction of several impactful monetization initiatives in the back half of last year. We expect Match Group AOI of $335 million to $340 million in Q3, up slightly year over year and margin of 37.5% at the midpoints of the ranges which would be stronger than our margins in the first half of the year.
隨著 Hinge 的持續強勢,去年下半年推出的幾項有影響力的貨幣化舉措也迎來了周年紀念日。我們預計 Match Group 第三季的 AOI 為 3.35 億美元至 3.4 億美元,年比略有成長,利潤率為 37.5%,處於該範圍的中點,這將高於我們上半年的利潤率。
We expect overall Q3 marketing spend to be up about 6% year over year as we continue to roll out the latest Tinder marketing campaign, deploy marketing dollars to support our growth brands, including Hinge, Azar, and some Emerging brands, but reduce marketing spend at other brands. Our AOI range for the quarter reflects approximately $6 million in employee severance and other charges relating to the exit of live streaming as well as approximately $1 million for Canada's new digital services tax.
我們預計第三季整體行銷支出將年增約 6%,因為我們將繼續推出最新的 Tinder 行銷活動,部署行銷資金來支持我們的成長品牌,包括 Hinge、Azar 和一些新興品牌,但會減少行銷支出在其他品牌。我們本季的 AOI 範圍反映了約 600 萬美元的員工遣散費和與退出直播相關的其他費用,以及加拿大新數位服務稅的約 100 萬美元。
We expect Q3 OI to be impacted by roughly $50 million of impairments of intangibles and other charges related to the exit of our live streaming services. After accounting for the exit of live streaming services and based on our latest FX expectations, which have worsened by about 1 point since our last earnings call, we expect Match Group to deliver year-over-year total revenue growth of approximately 5%, up about 7.5% year-over-year FX neutral and Tinder to deliver roughly 3% year-over-year direct revenue growth, up approximately 5.5% year-over-year FX neutral for full year '24.
我們預計第三季的 OI 將受到約 5000 萬美元的無形資產減值以及與我們的直播串流服務退出相關的其他費用的影響。考慮到直播服務的退出,並根據我們最新的外匯預期(自上次財報電話會議以來該預期已惡化約 1 個百分點),我們預計 Match Group 的總收入將同比增長約 5%, 2024 年全年,以匯率中立計算,較去年同期成長約7.5%,Tinder 直接營收年增約3%,依匯率中立計算,較去年同期成長約5.5%。
We calculate that had we not elected to exit live streaming and FX headwinds not worsened, we would be on pace to deliver better than 6% total revenue growth for the year. We continue to expect to achieve our full year company AOI margin target of 36% despite incurring approximately $6 million of severance and other charges related to the exit of our live streaming businesses and $9 million of full year cost related to the Canada digital services tax, none of which was included in our initial outlook for 2024.
我們計算出,如果我們沒有選擇退出直播並且外匯逆風沒有惡化,我們今年的總收入成長將超過 6%。儘管我們因退出直播業務而產生了約600 萬美元的遣散費和其他費用,以及因加拿大數位服務稅而產生的900 萬美元的全年成本,但我們仍然期望實現36% 的全年公司AOI 利潤率目標,這些都沒有包含在我們對 2024 年的初步展望中。
I know there is significant focus on our longer-term consolidated AOI margins and free cash flow, so I want to make sure to outline the key considerations in this regard. As you heard BK talk about, we think the opportunity for our business remains significant and worth investing in, particularly at Tinder and Hinge. Our goal is to return the company to sustained revenue growth, which requires us to invest in the product experience and in marketing.
我知道人們非常關注我們的長期綜合 AOI 利潤率和自由現金流,因此我想確保概述這方面的關鍵考慮因素。正如您聽到 BK 所說,我們認為我們的業務機會仍然很大且值得投資,特別是在 Tinder 和 Hinge 領域。我們的目標是讓公司恢復持續的收入成長,這需要我們在產品體驗和行銷方面進行投資。
We are judicious in how we allocate capital and we'll continue to exercise sound discipline. We believe we're already in the process of making important efficiency moves at our E&E brands and at Hyperconnect, which result in margins more consistent with our consolidated levels.
我們在如何分配資本方面非常明智,並將繼續遵守嚴格的紀律。我們相信,我們已經在 E&E 品牌和 Hyperconnect 上採取重要的效率舉措,從而使利潤率與我們的綜合水平更加一致。
At Tinder and Hinge where we see significant global growth opportunities, we want to put the right building blocks in place around marketing, product and tech, particularly around AI, given how game-changing we think it can be. We believe this will be critical in remaining the leader in helping people spark meaningful connections over the next decade.
在 Tinder 和 Hinge,我們看到了巨大的全球成長機會,考慮到我們認為人工智慧可以改變遊戲規則,我們希望圍繞行銷、產品和技術,特別是人工智慧,建立正確的建構模組。我們相信,這對於在未來十年繼續幫助人們激發有意義的聯繫方面保持領先地位至關重要。
As we make those important investments, especially in AI talent for which competition is intense. We expect our AOI margins will continue to improve, but only modestly in the near term. Our expectation is that as revenue growth reaccelerates and we remain disciplined on cost, we will see additional expansion in our AOI margins even before any potential relief in app store fees.
當我們進行這些重要投資時,尤其是在競爭激烈的人工智慧人才方面。我們預計我們的 AOI 利潤率將繼續改善,但短期內只會小幅改善。我們的預期是,隨著收入成長重新加速,並且我們繼續嚴格控製成本,即使在應用程式商店費用可能減免之前,我們的 AOI 利潤率也會進一步擴大。
We fully recognize though that if the top line growth does not materialize as we expect, we'll need to consider all options, including reduced investment and other alternatives. That said, we remain very confident that we're on the right track.
不過,我們充分認識到,如果營收成長沒有像我們預期的那樣實現,我們將需要考慮所有選擇,包括減少投資和其他替代方案。儘管如此,我們仍然非常有信心,我們走在正確的軌道上。
Our expectations are to deliver nearly $1.1 billion of free cash flow in 2024. We expect our 2024 AOI to free cash flow conversion level to be elevated compared to prior and future years due to an expected additional app store payment this year. And we expect our free cash flow conversion rate to return to more normalized levels in 2025.
我們的預期是在2024 年實現近11 億美元的自由現金流。 。我們預計我們的自由現金流轉換率將在 2025 年恢復到更正常化的水平。
As I mentioned, we expect to utilize at least 75% of our free cash flow for capital return via buybacks for the remainder of the year. We believe that our current stock price, our shares remain the best investment we can make with our capital.
正如我所提到的,我們預計將在今年剩餘時間內利用至少 75% 的自由現金流透過回購來獲得資本回報。我們相信,我們目前的股價、我們的股票仍然是我們可以用我們的資本進行的最佳投資。
Given the opportunities we see in front of us and the current price of our stock, we believe repurchases will be highly accretive and represent a terrific long-term investment. We'll have much more to say on our growth, margin, and free cash flow expectations at our Investor Day later this year. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
考慮到我們面前的機會和我們股票的當前價格,我們相信回購將具有很高的增值性,並且代表著一項出色的長期投資。在今年稍後的投資者日上,我們將有更多關於我們的成長、利潤率和自由現金流預期的內容。然後,我會要求接線員開通提問線路。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Nathan Feather, Morgan Stanley.
(操作員指令)Nathan Feather,摩根士丹利。
Nathan Feather - Analyst
Nathan Feather - Analyst
Hey, everyone. Congrats on the stabilization and Tinder user growth in the quarter. Is there anything outsized that led to that stabilization or more so stacking of a variety of individual improvements? And can you help us contextualize how much of that is due to new user trends versus retention? Thank you.
嘿大家。恭喜本季度 Tinder 用戶的穩定與成長。是否有任何重大因素導致了這種穩定或更重要的是各種單獨改進的疊加?您能否幫助我們了解其中有多少是因為新用戶趨勢與保留造成的?謝謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Nathan, for that question. I really like how you framed it around stacking Tinder product improvements. Our work is really a combination of product initiatives, building on each other over time. And this is reinforced with really strong marketing that is helping drive stabilization and start contributing to improvements on the back half of this year.
謝謝內森提出這個問題。我真的很喜歡你如何圍繞 Tinder 產品改進來建立它。我們的工作實際上是產品計劃的結合,隨著時間的推移,彼此相輔相成。真正強大的行銷也強化了這一點,這有助於推動穩定並開始為今年下半年的改進做出貢獻。
The trust and safety moves that we made last year is a great example of stacking initiatives, which we know were the right decisions. And the good news is we've worked through a lot of that noise and has led to better user outcomes. And say that the user base has stabilized, retention is improving and growing and we're making strides in top of funnel again, so a really exciting time period for Tinder.
我們去年採取的信任和安全措施是疊加措施的一個很好的例子,我們知道這是正確的決定。好消息是我們已經克服了許多噪音,並帶來了更好的用戶結果。並說用戶群已經穩定,保留率正在改善和增長,我們再次在漏斗頂部取得了長足進步,所以對於 Tinder 來說這是一個非常令人興奮的時期。
Operator
Operator
Jason Helfstein, Oppenheimer.
賈森·赫夫斯坦,奧本海默。
Jason Helfstein - Analyst
Jason Helfstein - Analyst
Thanks. Just one question. So has Tinder returned to normal payer seasonality in 3Q now that MAU has stabilized? And how should we be looking at more normal seasonality? Or should we be looking at more normal seasonality in the first half of next year? Thank you.
謝謝。只有一個問題。那麼,既然每月活躍用戶數已經穩定下來,Tinder 是否在第三季度恢復了正常的付款季節性?我們應該如何看待更正常的季節性?或者我們應該在明年上半年考慮更正常的季節性?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks for the question, Jason. Let me jump in and try to address it. So just a few things to point out. I mean if you look historically, I think, what you'll see is that we commonly see sequential improvement in payers Q3 over Q2, and it's really because of two reasons which are actually related to one another. The first is that Q3 tends to be strong seasonally because it includes the summer vacation season, which is an active season for dating.
謝謝你的提問,傑森。讓我介入並嘗試解決這個問題。所以只有幾點需要指出。我的意思是,如果你回顧歷史,我認為你會看到,我們通常會看到第三季付款人比第二季度連續改善,這實際上是由於兩個實際上相互關聯的原因。首先,第三季的季節性往往較強,因為它包括暑假季節,這是約會的活躍季節。
And it also includes the back-to-school period where college students return to campus and also start to date actively. And we actually take advantage of the fact that people are focused on dating in that Q3 period by rolling out a lot of new features and initiatives in that period. And we often even reinforce that with marketing spend to call attention to the apps and to the new features. So Q3 does tend to be very seasonally strong for us.
而且還包括返校期間,大學生重返校園,也開始積極約會。實際上,我們利用了人們在第三季專注於約會的事實,在此期間推出了許多新功能和舉措。我們甚至經常透過行銷支出來強化這一點,以引起人們對應用程式和新功能的關注。因此,第三季對我們來說季節性確實非常強勁。
When you look at Q4 by contrast, it tends to be a weaker period than Q3, and that's because people tend to start focusing on the holiday period and thinking about the holidays, whether it's Thanksgiving in the US, Christmas across the world, et cetera, and they focus less on dating. And so we lose a lot of the fourth quarter as people think about other activities besides dating.
相較之下,當你看第四季時,它往往比第三季度疲軟,這是因為人們傾向於開始關注假期並思考假期,無論是美國的感恩節,還是世界各地的聖誕節等等,而且他們不太關注約會。因此,我們在第四季度損失了很多時間,因為人們會考慮約會以外的其他活動。
And of course, we tend not to roll out as many product initiatives in that fourth quarter and we generally tend to pull back on marketing, both because the audience isn't as focused and also because, of course, Q4 tends to be a much more expensive period to market against holiday marketing and so we tend to reduce our marketing spend in that quarter.
當然,我們傾向於不會在第四季度推出那麼多的產品計劃,而且我們通常傾向於減少行銷,這既是因為受眾不那麼集中,也因為當然,第四季度往往會更加激烈。比,上市期的成本更高,因此我們傾向於減少該季度的行銷支出。
And so you're right that when you look at kind of typically what happens Q3 to Q4 from a user and a payer perspective, we do tend to see some level of sequential weakness in Q4 over Q3 after the strength we've seen Q3 over Q2. I would say that this year, we plan to follow a similar pattern from the marketing perspective.
所以你是對的,當你從用戶和付款人的角度來看第三季度到第四季度通常發生的情況時,我們確實傾向於看到在我們看到第三季度的強勢之後,第四季度比第三季出現一定程度的連續疲軟。我想說,今年,我們計劃從行銷角度遵循類似的模式。
We've got the new global marketing campaign going at Tinder, which is seeing great success and I would expect us to invest into marketing in Q3. But then given the holiday period, I would expect us to pull back on a year-over-year basis and, frankly, sequentially in Q4 as well on the marketing side. So those are just some of the factors to consider as you think about the seasonal trends.
我們在 Tinder 上開展了新的全球行銷活動,並取得了巨大成功,我希望我們在第三季對行銷進行投資。但考慮到假期期間,我預計我們將同比有所回落,坦白說,在第四季度以及行銷方面也會依次回落。因此,這些只是您在考慮季節性趨勢時需要考慮的一些因素。
And I think you're also right that as we think about 2025 and it's early and so we'll provide more of an outlook on 2025 as we get a little bit later into this year as we typically do. But I think that with the stabilized MAU base at Tinder, we would expect a return to more seasonal trends in 2025 as we've seen historically. So I think you're right for both the rest of '24 and '25 from a seasonality perspective. I hope that answers your question.
我認為你也是對的,因為我們考慮 2025 年,現在還為時過早,所以我們將像往常一樣,在今年晚些時候到來時提供更多關於 2025 年的展望。但我認為,隨著 Tinder 月活躍用戶數基礎的穩定,我們預計 2025 年將回歸更多季節性趨勢,正如我們歷史上所看到的那樣。因此,從季節性角度來看,我認為您對於 24 年剩餘時間和 25 年的情況都是正確的。我希望這能回答你的問題。
Operator
Operator
Youssef Squali, Truist.
尤瑟夫‧斯誇裡,真理主義者。
Youssef Squali - Analyst
Youssef Squali - Analyst
Great. Thank you very much. Maybe a two parter. One, BK, can you talk a little bit more about kind of practical green shoots you're seeing from some of the changes you've made and from increased product velocity in Tinder.
偉大的。非常感謝。也許是兩個人。第一,BK,您能多談談您從所做的一些更改以及 Tinder 中產品速度的提高中看到的實用的萌芽嗎?
And maybe, Gary, do you believe -- I know you're not guiding quite yet for '25, but do you believe that the improvement you're seeing in Tinder if they sustain themselves into next year are enough to get the overall business back to maybe high single-digit, low double-digit growth in 2025? Or do you need to see other drivers maybe to get you there? Thank you very much.
也許,Gary,你相信嗎?個位數、低兩位數成長?或者您是否需要見其他司機才能送您到那裡?非常感謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Great. Let me take a stab at describing the progress that we're making in Tinder. The turnaround is in progress and we're seeing great momentum. The team is super nimble when it comes to making decisions as some changes work and some changes don't, but the product velocity continues to be strong. We're making behind the scene improvements like recommendation changes and that's increasing user engagement and doing really positive things with driving better user outcomes. At the same time, the marketing velocity continues to be strong.
偉大的。讓我來描述一下我們在 Tinder 中取得的進展。轉變正在進行中,我們看到了巨大的動力。團隊在做出決策時非常靈活,因為有些變更有效,有些變更無效,但產品速度仍然很快。我們正在幕後進行改進,例如推薦更改,這提高了用戶參與度,並透過推動更好的用戶結果做真正積極的事情。與此同時,行銷速度持續強勁。
Like Gary mentioned, we continue to market and we're solidifying Tinder's brand position in the marketplace. We're investing in product marketing where it matters most. If I were to describe the green shoots that you were looking for, the things that get me really excited is when product and marketing really come together. A good example of that is what's happening right now with the Olympics. We're actually seeing a 25% increase in swipe activity in France and a 105% increase in Tinder Passport mode and that activity that's happening in Paris.
正如 Gary 所提到的,我們將繼續進行行銷,並鞏固 Tinder 在市場中的品牌地位。我們正在最重要的地方投資產品行銷。如果我要描述您正在尋找的萌芽,那麼讓我真正興奮的是產品和行銷真正結合在一起的時候。一個很好的例子就是現在的奧運。實際上,我們發現法國的刷卡活動增加了 25%,Tinder Passport 模式以及巴黎的活動增加了 105%。
We actually purposefully unbundled Tinder Passport, so anyone around the world can teleport into Paris and interact with real athletes. And that's with integrated marketing at the same time, something that I'm really proud of. Our Olympics content that our marketing team has been working on has seen over 15 million impressions and over 10 million views. It's super exciting. Now we have a clear vision for Tinder's future and I can't wait to share more around that in our upcoming Investor Day.
實際上,我們特意將 Tinder Passport 分拆,以便世界各地的任何人都可以傳送到巴黎並與真正的運動員互動。這與整合行銷同時進行,這是我真正感到自豪的事情。我們的行銷團隊一直致力於製作的奧運內容已獲得超過 1500 萬次展示和超過 1000 萬次瀏覽。太令人興奮了。現在,我們對 Tinder 的未來有了一個清晰的願景,我迫不及待地想在即將到來的投資者日分享更多相關資訊。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
On your question about 2025, I'm going to resist the temptation to provide our outlook now and wait as we typically do until the fall period to do that. But I would say the following, which is we've been pretty clear that 2024 needed to be a year of progress. First, stabilizing things and then starting to show improvement. And I think if you look at the outlook we're providing, and as BK mentioned in his remarks, that's exactly what's happening in the business.
關於你關於 2025 年的問題,我將抵制住現在提供我們的展望的誘惑,並像我們通常所做的那樣,等到秋季才這樣做。但我想說的是,我們已經非常清楚 2024 年需要成為進步的一年。首先,穩定局勢,然後開始出現改善。我認為,如果你看看我們提供的前景,正如 BK 在他的演講中提到的那樣,這正是行業中正在發生的事情。
We've reached a point of stabilizing users. We think it will get better on a year-over-year basis as we get into the back half of this year. And you can also see the same thing following through in payer trends, as you would expect, stabilization, and an expectation for improvement. And so we're checking the boxes here that we expected to check in that regard.
我們已經達到了穩定用戶的地步。我們認為,進入今年下半年後,情況將逐年改善。正如您所期望的那樣,您還可以在付款人趨勢中看到相同的事情,即穩定和改進的預期。因此,我們在這裡勾選了我們希望在這方面勾選的方塊。
And obviously, we don't consider that to be enough. We need to get back to improving MAU and improving payers on a year-over-year basis. And so we're going to continue to take those steps. We think that it will continue to improve through this year and into next.
顯然,我們認為這還不夠。我們需要重新開始逐年提高月活躍用戶數並改善付款人。因此,我們將繼續採取這些步驟。我們認為今年和明年它將繼續改善。
And it's incumbent on Tinder to continue to drive its product and marketing efforts to accomplish that, to drive better users, as we said earlier, to have products out there that people are excited about, that they tell their friends about that they return to Tinder for.
Tinder 有責任繼續推動其產品和行銷工作來實現這一目標,吸引更好的用戶,正如我們之前所說,推出讓人們興奮的產品,讓他們告訴朋友他們又回到了 Tinder為了。
And as that happens, user growth will increase and ultimately, payer growth will increase. And that is really the key that has to happen. I think we're seeing the green shoots as BK said, the first signs of that. It's still very early and which is why I'm resisting the temptation to go further in our outlook. But we feel good about where we are right now, and we feel like we'll continue to make the progress we need to make to position ourselves for a better 2025.
當這種情況發生時,用戶成長將會增加,最終付款人的成長也會增加。這確實是必鬚髮生的關鍵。我認為正如 BK 所說,我們正在看到萌芽,這是第一個跡象。現在還很早,這就是為什麼我抵制住進一步展望我們的前景的誘惑。但我們對目前所處的位置感覺良好,我們認為我們將繼續取得所需的進展,為更好的 2025 年做好準備。
Operator
Operator
Dan Salmon, New Street Research.
丹·薩蒙,新街研究。
Dan Salmon - Analyst
Dan Salmon - Analyst
Okay. Great. Good morning, everyone. So it's a little bit of an exceptional period here, obviously, as you guided to sequential growth for Tinder payers for several quarters now. I think that guidance for 250,000 sequential increase, that's likely even a little stronger than most expectations.
好的。偉大的。大家,早安。因此,顯然,現在是一個特殊時期,因為您引導 Tinder 付費用戶連續幾季實現連續成長。我認為 25 萬人的環比成長指引可能比大多數人的預期還要強一些。
So just considering the exceptional nature of the time, maybe BK or Gary, could you give us a little bit of a view in the Tinder payers trends so far in the third quarter through July and what gives you confidence in the trends that you're seeing right now? Thank you.
因此,考慮到當時的特殊性,也許是 BK 或 Gary,您能否向我們介紹截至 7 月第三季迄今為止的 Tinder 付款人趨勢,以及是什麼讓您對您所關注的趨勢充滿信心?現在看到嗎?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Sure, Dan. I'm happy to try to do that. I would say that the momentum on Tinder payers has really been strengthening over the last several months. And when you look at Q2 as a whole on payers, the period was down sequentially by 78,000. But if we look kind of on a month-over-month basis inside that quarter, we've actually seen very solid sequential payer growth from April to May and May to June.
當然,丹。我很高興嘗試這樣做。我想說的是,過去幾個月 Tinder 付費用戶的勢頭確實在增強。當你把第二季的付款人看成一個整體時,你會發現這段時期的付款人數較上季下降了 78,000 人。但如果我們按月比較該季度的情況,我們實際上會看到從 4 月到 5 月以及 5 月到 6 月的付款人連續增長。
And to your question, giving you a little sneak peek into Q3, we've actually seen continued payer strength from June into July. So I believe the sequential payer trends are very positive and that's what's giving us confidence that we're going to be able to have a strong period of sequential net adds for Tinder in Q3. Now it's only one month into the quarter. So I'll caution you, we still got work to do to get through August and September. So we're not done yet.
對於你的問題,讓你先了解第三季度,我們實際上看到從 6 月到 7 月,付款人持續強勁。因此,我相信連續付費趨勢非常積極,這讓我們有信心在第三季 Tinder 能夠實現強勁的連續淨成長。現在距離本季只有一個月了。所以我要提醒你,我們還有很多工作要做才能度過八月和九月。所以我們還沒完成。
But I believe that we're positioned to deliver on the 250,000 sequential net adds that we provided in our outlook, which would be an improvement in the year-over-year growth rate, which is really what I'm focused on, getting from negative 8% in Q2, which we just reported to something closer to negative 5% in Q3.
但我相信,我們有能力實現我們在展望中提供的 250,000 個連續淨增,這將是同比增長率的改善,這正是我真正關注的重點,從第二季度為負8%,我們剛剛報告第三季接近負5%。
Operator
Operator
Ken Gawrelski, Wells Fargo.
肯‧加維爾斯基(Ken Gawrelski),富國銀行。
Ken Gawrelski - Analyst
Ken Gawrelski - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Appreciate the question. You noted maybe I'm going to draw you out, just try to draw you out a little bit more on 4Q because I know it's on a lot of investor minds. You noted that Tinder payer growth would continue to improve in 4Q from the minus 5% year over year in 3Q, but it would also be seasonally weaker than the 3Q plus 250,000 guide quarter over quarter. Do you expect Tinder payers to grow sequentially in 4Q based on where you sit today? Thank you.
謝謝。大家,早安。感謝這個問題。你指出也許我會吸引你,只是試著在第四季度吸引你更多一點,因為我知道這是許多投資者的想法。您指出,Tinder 付費用戶成長將在第四季度繼續改善,較第三季的年比負 5% 有所改善,但季節性也將低於第三季的季度環比 25 萬指導值。根據您今天的情況,您預計 Tinder 付費用戶在第四季度會持續成長嗎?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
So again, I'm going to try to return the thinking back to the year-over-year growth and the progress we're trying to make on payers in that regard and again, trying to get from negative 8% in Q2 to negative 5% in Q3. And even though we're not really at the point of providing Q4 outlook, saying that, as I said in the answer to the earlier question, we want to make more progress.
因此,我將再次嘗試將想法帶回同比增長以及我們在這方面努力在付款人身上取得的進展,並再次嘗試將第二季度的負 8% 變為負數第三季度為 5%。儘管我們還沒有真正提供第四季度的前景,但正如我在回答之前的問題時所說,我們希望取得更多進展。
We're expecting there to be more progress on a year-over-year basis in Q4. And so we think we'll do something better than negative 5% year over year in Q4. And I think if you do the math, you have to get -- we have to get to something better than negative 1% in Q4 on a year-over-year basis to have sequential payer growth in the quarter.
我們預計第四季將與去年同期相比取得更多進展。因此,我們認為第四季我們會做得比同比負 5% 更好。我認為,如果你計算一下,你必須得到——我們必須在第四季度達到比去年同期負 1% 更好的水平,才能在本季度實現付款人的連續增長。
And I think that's a fairly tall order. I think that it's not off the table, I'm not going to take it off the table, but I think it's a fairly tall order. And frankly the outlook that we've provided for the full year doesn't assume that we're going to do better than that in Q4, and so that would exceed our current expectations. And again there's a significant amount of seasonality.
我認為這是一個相當艱鉅的任務。我認為這不是不可能的,我不會把它從桌面上刪除,但我認為這是一個相當艱鉅的任務。坦白說,我們提供的全年展望並不認為我們會比第四季做得更好,因此這將超出我們當前的預期。而且季節性因素也很明顯。
If you look back on Tinder's performance over the years on payers, Q4 over Q3, even if you look at Hinge's performance on payers, Q4 over Q3 last year, if you remember, it was a weaker period than it has historically been because it is typical to see a seasonal pattern for the reasons that I explained in Jason's question. And so I just don't think that's the right way to look at it.
如果你回顧一下Tinder 多年來在付費用戶方面的表現,即第四季度與第三季度相比,即使你看看Hinge 在付費用戶方面的表現,去年第四季度與第三季度相比,如果你還記得的話,那是一個比歷史上更弱的時期,因為它是由於我在傑森的問題中解釋的原因,通常會看到季節性模式。所以我認為這不是正確的看待它的方式。
You have to expect seasonal pressure Q4 over Q3 as people focus on the holidays, but I do expect to see continued improvement on a year-over-year basis. And I think it's important because that's what's going to position us for better performance going into Q1 on a year-over-year basis, payers revenue and position us for a stronger '25 than what we've had in 2024. And I think those are the important things to keep in mind.
由於人們關注假期,您必須預計第四季將比第三季面臨季節性壓力,但我確實預計將年比持續改善。我認為這很重要,因為這將使我們能夠在第一季取得同比更好的業績、付款人收入,並使我們的 25 年業績比 2024 年更強勁。
Operator
Operator
Chris Kuntarich, UBS.
克里斯·昆塔里奇,瑞銀集團。
Chris Kuntarich - Analyst
Chris Kuntarich - Analyst
Great. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe one around the new swipe gestures in Tinder and the refreshed explore experience. Could you just frame how big of a product update this is versus the product refresh at the end of last year? And maybe the second part of this question would be, are you assuming any revenue upside from these product efforts in your '24 revenue guide? Thanks.
偉大的。感謝您提出問題。也許是 Tinder 中新的滑動手勢和煥然一新的探索體驗。您能否簡單說明一下,與去年年底的產品更新相比,這次產品更新有多大?也許這個問題的第二部分是,您是否認為您的 24 年收入指南中的這些產品工作有任何收入成長?謝謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Vertical swiping in Tinder is something that I'm super passionate about. I really believe it can lead to a more fulsome experience and deeper profile discovery. But when it comes to big changes in Tinder, these things do not happen overnight and they really need to be tested properly. For example, for swipe up, there is super valuable real estate given it currently has ALC connected to it.
我非常喜歡在 Tinder 中垂直滑動。我真的相信它可以帶來更豐富的體驗和更深入的個人資料發現。但當談到 Tinder 的重大變化時,這些事情不會在一夜之間發生,它們確實需要經過適當的測試。例如,對於向上滑動,鑑於目前已連接 ALC,因此具有非常有價值的空間。
And then swipe down to explore, we have an opportunity to really revamp the entire explore experience to make it more social, more alive, and more fun. These iterative changes require deep testing. We have the right team that's on it and they're tireless around innovation, also making sure we understand the full impact to the ecosystem.
然後向下滑動進行探索,我們有機會真正改善整個探索體驗,使其更具社交性、更生動、更有趣。這些迭代變化需要深入測試。我們擁有合適的團隊,他們孜孜不倦地致力於創新,同時確保我們了解對生態系統的全面影響。
I do think in '24, we did take a moment in time to evaluate the entire user experience. And I believe as well as the team believes that it can be a more elegant experience, and that's super important to our teams. Currently, right now, our central innovation team is working together with the Tinder team and leaning in on that user experience. And the things that I'm seeing from them are really exciting and I think it will lead to an overall better and more elegant experience.
我確實認為在 24 年,我們確實花了一些時間來評估整個用戶體驗。我相信,團隊也相信這可以是一種更優雅的體驗,這對我們的團隊來說非常重要。目前,我們的中央創新團隊正在與 Tinder 團隊合作,並致力於用戶體驗。我從他們身上看到的東西真的很令人興奮,我認為這將帶來整體上更好、更優雅的體驗。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Maybe just on the part about revenue. I would say we have a lot of features planned to be tested at Tinder in the fourth quarter. They're not really expected to be revenue generators in Q4 for 2024. They're really being tested and positioned for 2025. So our revenue outlook for the year really doesn't depend on these features contributing in any meaningful way to 2024.
也許只是關於收入的部分。我想說的是,我們計劃在第四季度在 Tinder 上測試很多功能。它們實際上並不會在2024 年第四季度成為收入來源。意義的貢獻。
Operator
Operator
Justin Patterson, KeyBanc.
賈斯汀·帕特森,KeyBanc。
Justin Patterson - Analyst
Justin Patterson - Analyst
Great. Thank you. Good morning. BK, I was hoping you can touch on the Tinder ecosystem some more. Which inning are you in on improving trust, safety, and user outcomes? And how have user perceptions changed over the past year? Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。早安. BK,我希望您能多談談 Tinder 生態系統。您在改善信任、安全性和使用者結果方面處於哪一階段?在過去的一年裡,使用者的看法發生了什麼樣的變化?謝謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Our ongoing effort with trust and safety are critical to the success of the long-term ecosystem at Tinder. When it comes to your question on what inning we're in, there literally is no end game. We're continually looking at improving user experiences. We have the best when it comes to trust and safety and platform and talent that are working on it. And we're making the right decisions every single day with a focus on better user outcomes.
我們在信任和安全方面的持續努力對於 Tinder 長期生態系統的成功至關重要。當談到我們現在處於第哪一局的問題時,實際上並沒有結束比賽。我們不斷尋求改善用戶體驗。在信任、安全、平台和人才方面,我們擁有最好的。我們每天都在做出正確的決策,並專注於更好的使用者結果。
But this is not a linear journey and the work literally never ends. For example, we're continually thinking about big bold features like mandated face photos, which we are going to test and then also new technologies around authenticating users. As for perception improvement, it's something that we're really zeroed in on.
但這不是一個線性的旅程,工作其實永無止境。例如,我們不斷考慮一些大膽的功能,例如我們將測試的強制臉部照片,以及圍繞用戶身份驗證的新技術。至於感知的改善,這是我們真正關注的事情。
And like we said in the letter and I'm going to try to do my best with regards to showcasing this impressive stat. But for women in the US aged 18 to 30, brand perception for Tinder is a place where I can find meaningful connections is up nearly 50%. And at the same time, Tinder's hookup stigma has fallen by 20%. This is tremendous progress with the demographic that our marketing teams are speaking directly to. So I'm really proud of these efforts.
正如我們在信中所說,我將盡力展示這令人印象深刻的數據。但對於 18 歲至 30 歲的美國女性來說,Tinder 是一個可以找到有意義連結的地方,其品牌認知度提高了近 50%。與此同時,Tinder 的勾搭恥辱已經下降了 20%。對於我們的行銷團隊直接與之交談的人群來說,這是巨大的進步。所以我對這些努力感到非常自豪。
Operator
Operator
Cory Carpenter, JPMorgan.
科里·卡彭特,摩根大通。
Cory Carpenter - Analyst
Cory Carpenter - Analyst
Thank you. Could you expand on the rationale and some of the math behind the exit of the live streaming business? Thank you.
謝謝。您能否詳細闡述直播業務退出背後的理由和一些數學原理?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Sure, Cory. Why don't I take that one? I know there's a lot of moving pieces to this and it's a little bit complicated. So let me try to step through it. Just to clarify, first of all, we really have two pieces where we have live streaming. We've got a stand-on app, Hakuna, in Asia, which focuses on providing live streaming in Japan and Korea.
當然,科里。我為什麼不拿那個?我知道這其中有很多動人的部分,而且有點複雜。那麼讓我嘗試逐步完成它。澄清一下,首先,我們確實有兩個部分可以進行直播。我們在亞洲有一個獨立的應用程式 Hakuna,專注於在日本和韓國提供直播。
And then we provide live streaming services alongside some of our dating business in PlentyOfFish primarily in a couple of the other US-based apps. And those are the businesses that we're planning to exit here in the third quarter. And what I would say on live streaming is they basically have the same types of expenses as we see in our other dating businesses.
然後,我們在 PlentyOfFish 中提供即時串流服務以及一些約會業務,主要是在其他幾個美國應用程式中。這些是我們計劃在第三季退出的業務。我想說的是,關於直播,他們的費用基本上與我們在其他約會業務中看到的費用類型相同。
But there's one significant difference, which is we need to provide a revenue share to the live streamers. And that can be 20% or even more of the revenue. And so that's an extra expense that we really don't see in our dating business.
但有一個顯著的區別,那就是我們需要向直播主提供收入分成。這可能佔收入的 20% 甚至更多。因此,這是我們在約會業務中真正看不到的額外費用。
And as a result of that, the margins in live streaming are probably in the 20%s range for a business that's at scale versus our dating business, which, as you know, can be 30% or higher from a margin perspective. So there's a significant difference in the economics of the live streaming business versus the dating business.
因此,對於規模較大的業務來說,直播的利潤率可能在20% 左右,而我們的約會業務,正如你所知,從利潤率的角度來看,我們的約會業務可以達到30% 或更高。因此,直播業務與約會業務的經濟效益有顯著差異。
In addition to them having lower margins, it's become much more challenging to grow live streaming in our apps over the last few years because there's been significant competition from very well-funded players including most of the big social media platforms and I, of course, point at TikTok as the most significant dominant player in the space.
除了利潤率較低之外,過去幾年在我們的應用程式中發展直播變得更具挑戰性,因為來自資金雄厚的參與者(包括大多數大型社交媒體平台和我)的激烈競爭,當然,指出TikTok 是該領域最重要的主導者。
And so when we entered into live streaming a few years ago and the world was different, it was pre-COVID and everything else, but live streaming at that point, we thought provided an attractive kind of adjacent additional source of revenue for us. And right now, this year, we expected roughly a $60 million revenue contribution from live streaming.
因此,當我們幾年前進入直播領域時,世界已經不同了,那是在新冠疫情和其他一切之前,但當時的直播,我們認為為我們提供了一種有吸引力的相鄰額外收入來源。今年,我們預計直播將帶來約 6,000 萬美元的收入貢獻。
But growing that revenue base has become much, much more challenging in the face of the competition and the changed landscape and dynamics that we're facing. And not only that, but to reach the scale that we need to reach, to achieve even reasonable margins from our perspective, was going to take a significant amount of investment for a significant number of years, even in the best case scenario.
但面對競爭以及我們面臨的環境和動態的變化,擴大收入基礎變得更加具有挑戰性。不僅如此,為了達到我們需要達到的規模,甚至從我們的角度來看,為了實現合理的利潤,即使在最好的情況下,也需要在相當長的時間內進行大量投資。
And so when you boil it down, we felt that these businesses are not strategic to what we do. It's not likely -- they're not likely to be revenue growth enhancing and they're likely to be margin dilutive for a long period of time. It makes more sense in our minds to exit those businesses now. And in fact, what we can do is, we can re-deploy some of the great talent we have in these businesses into other businesses of ours where we have a much stronger position.
因此,當你歸結時,我們覺得這些業務對我們所做的事情來說並不具有戰略意義。這不太可能——它們不太可能提高收入成長,而且很可能在很長一段時間內稀釋利潤。在我們看來,現在退出這些業務更有意義。事實上,我們能做的是,我們可以將這些業務中的一些優秀人才重新部署到我們擁有更強大地位的其他業務中。
And so we made that decision, and we're foregoing the $60 million of revenue, which for next year probably will create a 1 to 2 point revenue growth headwind for us but these were AOI drags this year. And so when we look at the margin impact for next year, I think we can expect at least a 50 basis points improvement in the margins as a result of exiting these businesses.
所以我們做出了這個決定,我們放棄了 6000 萬美元的收入,這可能會為我們明年帶來 1 到 2 個百分點的收入成長阻力,但這些都是今年 AOI 的拖累。因此,當我們考慮明年的利潤率影響時,我認為我們可以預期,由於退出這些業務,利潤率至少會提高 50 個基點。
So we'll factor all that into everything else we're thinking about for next year, but the move to exit now should create a 50 basis point tailwind for us on the margin side. And the only other thing I wanted to make sure people are clear on, and BK alluded to it in his remarks, as a result of our decision to exit live streaming and some other things that we're doing around the portfolio, we're expecting to reduce our workforce by 6%, net of people that were moving into other businesses and that we're retaining.
因此,我們將把所有這些因素納入我們明年考慮的其他事項中,但現在退出的舉措應該會為我們的利潤率創造 50 個基點的順風。我想確保人們清楚的另一件事是,BK 在他的言論中提到了這一點,由於我們決定退出直播以及我們圍繞產品組合所做的其他一些事情,我們預計我們的員工人數將減少6% ,扣除轉入其他業務及我們保留的人員後的淨額。
And so that should lead to $13 million of savings, which is on top of the savings that we've already talked about and that we're planning to achieve by full year 2026 from the re-platforming at the E&E businesses. So I just want to make sure people understand all the moving pieces around the efficiencies because there are quite a few of them. So I hope that helps answer your question and I appreciate the question.
因此,這應該會帶來 1300 萬美元的節省,這是我們已經討論過的節省的基礎,我們計劃在 2026 年全年之前透過 E&E 業務的平台重組實現這一目標。所以我只是想確保人們了解與效率相關的所有變化因素,因為其中有很多變化。所以我希望這有助於回答你的問題,我很欣賞你的問題。
Operator
Operator
Ygal Arounian, Citigroup.
Ygal Arounian,花旗集團。
Ygal Arounian - Analyst
Ygal Arounian - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, guys. I want to shift to Hinge. We got a lot of questions from investors on Hinge's strengths and how to think about the difference there or the better than industry-level strength that we've seen consistently at Hinge and we're seeing acceleration here again this quarter. I know you touched on it on the call a little bit, but can you expand on that a little bit?
謝謝。早上好傢伙。我想轉向鉸鏈。我們從投資者那裡收到了很多關於 Hinge 優勢的問題,以及如何思考 Hinge 的差異或我們在 Hinge 一貫看到的優於行業水平的優勢,並且本季度我們再次看到這裡的加速。我知道您在電話會議中談到了這一點,但您能詳細說明一下嗎?
How much of what you're seeing is kind of simple market expansion, monetization expansion versus product initiatives and factors? What do you think the biggest product factors have been and what you're seeing there in the strength? And how does that inform the product road map that you're laying out for Hinge? Thanks.
您所看到的有多少是簡單的市場擴張、貨幣化擴張與產品計劃和因素?您認為最大的產品因素是什麼以及您看到的優勢是什麼?這對您為 Hinge 制定的產品路線圖有何影響?謝謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hinge is an absolute rocket ship for Match Group, and it's on track to become a $1 billion-plus revenue business. We're super pleased with its current performance and the continual investment in product as well as in marketing and global expansion. But the team is not resting on its laurels. We're continually building out new features and improving user experiences.
Hinge 絕對是 Match Group 的一艘火箭飛船,它有望成為收入超過 10 億美元的業務。我們對其當前的業績以及對產品、行銷和全球擴張的持續投資感到非常滿意。但該團隊並沒有滿足於現狀。我們不斷建立新功能並改善用戶體驗。
Examples of that are things that are in test and fully rolled out like Top Photo and Photo Finder, which utilize best-in-class AI. I'm really impressed by the team's vision of incorporating AI into the full user experience and in every touch point of the Hinge user experience. Our future road map will utilize AI to really fulfill that Hinge's North Star around getting people on great dates even faster. So there's continued momentum and we're continuing to invest in Hinge's growth.
例如,正在測試並全面推出的產品,例如 Top Photo 和 Photo Finder,它們利用了一流的人工智慧。團隊將人工智慧融入完整用戶體驗以及 Hinge 用戶體驗的每個接觸點的願景給我留下了深刻的印象。我們未來的路線圖將利用人工智慧來真正實現 Hinge 的北極星目標,讓人們更快享受美好的約會。因此,勢頭持續存在,我們將繼續投資於 Hinge 的成長。
Operator
Operator
Shweta Khajuria, Wolfe Research.
Shweta Khajuria,沃爾夫研究。
Shweta Khajuria - Analyst
Shweta Khajuria - Analyst
Thank you. Let me try -- two please. BK, could you please talk about your conversations with Starboard intra-quarter? There was a release, to the extent, that you can share, any commentary on that would very much appreciate it.
謝謝。讓我試試——請兩個。 BK,您能談談您與 Starboard 季度內的對話嗎?在某種程度上,有一個版本可以分享,任何對此的評論都會非常感激。
And then, Gary, when we think about the third quarter net adds for Tinder, could you please provide specific examples that give you confidence in this number in terms of is it the a la carte that -- the improvement in a la carte that's going to be helping? Is it unbundling an a la carte? Is it the product updates that you've made so far that will just be compounding? Could you help us sparse that out in terms of what is contributing to the third quarter net adds? Thanks a lot.
然後,加里,當我們考慮 Tinder 第三季度的淨增加量時,您能否提供具體的例子,讓您對這個數字充滿信心,因為點菜方面正在改進?是按菜單分拆嗎?您迄今為止所做的產品更新是否會帶來複合效應?您能否幫助我們從第三季淨增加的貢獻中剔除這一點?多謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I can take the Starboard section, but we've had some initial interactions with Starboard, which were typical with interactions that we've had with other potential investors. Then as you all know, on July 15, they shared that they were a large shareholder and published a letter. Now we believe that the topics raised by Starboard are already key areas of focus for our teams and are things that we have actually heard from other significant shareholders as well.
我可以選擇 Starboard 部分,但我們已經與 Starboard 進行了一些初步互動,這是我們與其他潛在投資者的典型互動。然後大家知道,7月15日,他們分享自己是大股東,並發表了一封信。現在我們相信 Starboard 提出的話題已經是我們團隊關注的關鍵領域,也是我們從其他重要股東那裡實際聽到的。
These three areas are returning Tinder to growth, improving margins and returning more capital to shareholders. We've been taking significant steps in all three of these areas, including investing in Tinder product and marketing to drive growth, reducing headcount, and undertaking tech re-platforming to drive margins and then re-deploying 75% of our free cash flow to buy back shares. We continue to look forward to engaging with all of our shareholders and then getting their input on how we can continue to drive shareholder value.
這三個領域正在使 Tinder 恢復成長、提高利潤率並向股東返還更多資本。我們在這三個領域都採取了重大舉措,包括投資 Tinder 產品和行銷以推動成長、減少員工數量、進行技術平台重組以提高利潤率,然後將 75% 的自由現金流重新部署到回購股票。我們繼續期待與所有股東接觸,然後聽取他們對我們如何繼續推動股東價值的意見。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
I think on the second part of your question, Shweta, you really have to think of kind of the trajectory of Tinder, as BK said earlier, of being driven by a series of things, not just one particular thing. And it's really on product and on marketing. And so we've cleaned up the ecosystem. That has helped. It's led to a stabilization now in users. That is helping the physics of the business in terms of payer trends, et cetera. The marketing is really resonating.
Shweta,我認為關於你問題的第二部分,你確實必須考慮 Tinder 的發展軌跡,正如 BK 之前所說,它是由一系列事物驅動的,而不僅僅是一個特定的事物。這實際上與產品和行銷有關。所以我們已經清理生態系統了。這很有幫助。現在它導致了用戶的穩定。這有助於在付款人趨勢等方面推動業務發展。行銷確實能引起共鳴。
I think that the sense of Tinder is a place where people can meet people is really improving. The perception of the app continues to improve. All that marketing spend that we've done on the brand over the last year plus has really started to pay benefits. And so all of that is contributing as well as a series of product initiatives and things that we're doing, whether those are optimizations which we continue to do or whether those are other feature changes as well.
我認為 Tinder 是一個人們可以結識朋友的地方,這種感覺確實在改善。該應用程式的認知度不斷提高。去年我們在品牌上所做的所有行銷支出已經真正開始產生效益。因此,所有這些以及我們正在做的一系列產品計劃和事情都做出了貢獻,無論這些是我們繼續進行的最佳化還是其他功能變更。
And so it's really a bunch of things starting to work at Tinder, which frankly has been the plan all along that it was going to be a multifaceted approach that wasn't going to be one silver bullet, but rather be a series of initiatives, product and marketing working together to drive improvement at Tinder. And I think that's what you're really starting to see the fruits of here as we expect the third quarter to shape up.
因此,Tinder 確實開始發揮作用,坦率地說,這一直是計劃,這將是一種多方面的方法,不會是一個靈丹妙藥,而是一系列舉措,產品和營銷共同推動 Tinder 的改進。我認為這就是您真正開始看到的成果,因為我們預計第三季將會出現。
Operator
Operator
Benjamin Black, Deutsche Bank.
班傑明·布萊克,德意志銀行。
Benjamin Black - Analyst
Benjamin Black - Analyst
Great. Thank you for taking my question. Just one on capital allocation. So you've given a target of at least 75% for capital returns, but for the last two quarters, you returned more than 100%. So how are you thinking about the right amount here? And then would you potentially also consider a dividend? Thank you.
偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。只是關於資本配置的一件事。因此,您設定了至少 75% 的資本回報率目標,但在過去兩個季度,您的回報率超過了 100%。那麼您如何考慮合適的金額呢?那麼您是否也可能考慮股利?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Ben. Let me jump in and take that. Look, I think that 75%-plus return is the right level for the company to commit to and that remains our stated commitment. But the Board evaluates the right amount for us to be deploying for buybacks on an ongoing basis. They are very involved in this aspect of the business. They look at our share price. They look at our business outlook. They look at a variety of factors and we try to make a determination of what the right level to buy back is.
謝謝,本。讓我跳進去接受它。看,我認為 75% 以上的回報率是公司承諾的正確水平,這仍然是我們既定的承諾。但董事會會評估我們持續部署回購的正確金額。他們非常參與這方面的業務。他們看我們的股價。他們關注我們的業務前景。他們會考慮各種因素,而我們則嘗試確定回購的正確水準。
And as you rightly pointed out, we bought back just over 100% through the first half of the year. So we've been more aggressive. And obviously, that was in part because our share price in our mind was very low relative to the opportunity we see for the company over the coming years. So it's not an immediate one quarter thing, but we think over the long-term, we're going to feel good about having bought a lot of stock back at these levels.
正如您正確指出的那樣,今年上半年我們回購了 100% 以上。所以我們變得更積極主動。顯然,這部分是因為我們心目中的股價相對於我們在未來幾年看到的公司機會來說非常低。因此,這不是一個季度的事情,但我們認為從長遠來看,我們會對在這些水平上回購大量股票感到滿意。
And so we factor all of that in and we'll continue to do so as we move forward. As far as the dividend goes, it's an interesting question. As you're probably aware, some very successful large growth companies have implemented dividends over the last little while. And we think it's a logical thing to do as a component of the capital return.
因此,我們將所有這些因素都考慮在內,並且在前進的過程中我們將繼續這樣做。就股息而言,這是一個有趣的問題。您可能知道,一些非常成功的大型成長型公司在過去一段時間已經實施了股息。我們認為,作為資本回報的一部分,這樣做是合乎邏輯的。
So dividends working alongside buybacks to drive return for shareholders. It's something that we have thought about and continue to think about, but we don't think that now is the time to do it and we're steadfastly focused on buybacks at this point in time. So that is unchanging at the moment. But if there's updates in our thinking, we'll certainly convey it to you all.
因此,股利與回購結合,可以為股東帶來回報。這是我們已經考慮並繼續考慮的事情,但我們認為現在不是這樣做的時候,我們目前堅定地專注於回購。所以目前這一點是不變的。但如果我們的想法有更新的話,我們一定會傳達給大家。
I think we have time maybe for one more question after Ben. So why don't we just try to get that in here quickly?
我想在本之後我們也許還有時間再問一個問題。那我們為什麼不嘗試盡快把它放在這裡呢?
Operator
Operator
Curtis Nagle, Bank of America.
柯蒂斯‧內格爾,美國銀行。
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Great. Thanks so much for squeezing me in. So just returning back to Hinge. How do we think about the gross profit prospects and timing and I guess probability of hitting that $1 billion-plus in revenue, outperformed in 2Q, 3Q guide ahead? In the letter, I think you said you're now targeting to be the number two brand, I think that's new. To me, I think, it suggests you're more confident in growth. So is that fair and just how should we think through all that?
偉大的。非常感謝你讓我加入。我們如何看待毛利前景和時機,以及我猜測收入超過 10 億美元的可能性,在第二季、第三季的指引中表現優於預期?在信中,我想你說過你現在的目標是成為第二大品牌,我認為這是新的。對我來說,我認為這表明你對成長更有信心。那麼這是否公平公正,我們該如何思考呢?
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Thanks for the question. Look, I think, that's right what you say that our confidence in the Hinge platform has been increasing over the last little while. And I think most of that is really driven as we look at the user trends and the fact that Hinge continues to move up in the rankings in various countries and regions from a downloads perspective, which is telling us that the product really continues to resonate. It's a differentiated product.
是的。謝謝你的提問。聽著,我想,你說的是對的,我們對 Hinge 平台的信心在過去一段時間裡一直在增強。我認為,這很大程度上是由我們觀察用戶趨勢以及 Hinge 從下載量角度來看在各個國家和地區的排名持續上升的事實所推動的,這告訴我們該產品確實在繼續引起共鳴。這是一個差異化的產品。
People really like using that product and continue to see it as a go-to product. And that's really having effect on the overall dating landscape as well as improving our confidence in the prospects for Hinge. So when we look at the ability for Hinge to be a $1 billion business in a few years, we absolutely think it's there and we're driving towards that.
人們真的很喜歡使用該產品,並繼續將其視為首選產品。這確實對整體約會格局產生了影響,並提高了我們對 Hinge 前景的信心。因此,當我們看到 Hinge 在幾年內成為價值 10 億美元的業務的能力時,我們絕對認為它已經存在,並且我們正在朝著這個目標努力。
And something that I would just point out, which I'm not sure people fully appreciate is that Hinge, which is on track to deliver well over $500 million of revenue this year, derives less than 10% of its revenue from its European expansion market.
我想指出的是,我不確定人們是否完全理解這一點:Hinge 今年預計將實現超過 5 億美元的收入,但其收入的不到 10% 來自其歐洲擴張市場。
So we've been spending a lot of money in those markets to drive awareness and that is clearly working, but the revenue has really just started to trickle in. And so it shows sort of the opportunity for us to have a much bigger business at Hinge in these European markets.
因此,我們在這些市場上投入了大量資金來提高知名度,這顯然正在發揮作用,但收入實際上才剛開始流入。
And it also shows the nature of our business, which is we make these investments initially and plant the seed, so to speak, and then we're going to harvest them down the road. And that's what's happening in Hinge, which obviously, over time will be accretive to margins as well. So that is kind of the business that we're in planting the seeds for future harvesting.
它還顯示了我們業務的性質,可以說,我們最初進行這些投資並播下種子,然後我們將在路上收穫它們。這就是 Hinge 正在發生的事情,顯然,隨著時間的推移,利潤也會增加。這就是我們為未來的收穫播下種子的業務。
Hinge is a great example. We're about to start doing that at Azar as well, and we'll continue to do that where we see opportunities. And that's what drives the future revenue growth. So I'm going to leave it there just because we are out of time, but hopefully, that mostly at least addresses your question. And I'll just thank everyone for having joined us this morning. We appreciate everybody's time. Enjoy the rest of your summer, and we'll talk to you all soon.
鉸鏈就是一個很好的例子。我們也即將在阿札爾開始這樣做,並且我們將在看到機會的地方繼續這樣做。這就是推動未來營收成長的因素。所以我會把它留在那裡只是因為我們沒有時間了,但希望這至少能解決你的問題。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們感謝大家的時間。祝你度過剩下的夏天,我們很快就會和大家聊聊。
Operator
Operator
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation and you may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示,您現在可以斷開連接了。