使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Match Group second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
歡迎參加 Match Group 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁坦尼·謝爾伯恩。請繼續。
Tanny Shelburne - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Tanny Shelburne - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks and then we'll open it up for questions. Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate, or similar statements.
謝謝接線員,大家早安。今天的電話會議將由執行長伯納德·金和總裁兼財務長加里·斯威德勒主持。他們會做簡短的發言,然後我們會開放提問環節。在開始之前,我需要提醒大家,在本次通話中,我們可能會討論公司前景和未來業績。這些前瞻性陳述前面可能帶有「我們預期」、「我們相信」、「我們預期」或類似表述等字眼。
These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports with the SEC. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
這些聲明存在風險和不確定性,我們的實際結果可能與今天表達的觀點有重大差異。其中一些風險已在我們的獲利報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中列出。那麼,我想把電話交給BK。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Tanny. Good morning, and thank you all for joining today's call. Overall, we are pleased with our Q2 results and the progress we have made across our portfolio. Over my two years, it feels like currents are finally flowing with us and we have key elements working in our favor across the company.
謝謝你,坦尼。早安,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。總體而言,我們對第二季的業績以及我們在各個業務領域的進展感到滿意。經過兩年的時間,我感覺到公司各方面終於開始順風順水,關鍵因素都朝著對我們有利的方向發展。
This is the beginning of a broader transformation as Tinder continues to show stabilization. Hinge is a rocket ship, expanding rapidly. Azar continues to perform strongly and marketing at Pairs has driven user strength and we're executing on a number of great initiatives throughout the entire company.
隨著 Tinder 持續趨於穩定,這標誌著更廣泛變革的開始。Hinge就像一艘火箭飛船,正在迅速擴張。Azar 持續保持強勁的業績,Pairs 的行銷也推動了用戶成長,我們正在全公司範圍內執行許多優秀的舉措。
Over the last several quarters, Tinder has been working hard to improve the user experience, and we're now starting to see initial signs of progress. User and payer trends are stabilizing, and we expect them to continue to improve from here. We expect strong sequential payer growth in Q3 and better year-over-year MAU trends in the second half of the year.
在過去的幾個季度裡,Tinder 一直在努力改善用戶體驗,現在我們開始看到一些初步的進展跡象。用戶和支付方趨勢趨於穩定,我們預期未來將持續改善。我們預計第三季支付方用戶將實現強勁的環比成長,下半年月活躍用戶數年趨勢也將有所改善。
As the largest dating app in the world, it's Tinder's job to deliver for its users, which in turn helps attract new users. Tinder is building on its fun legacy and its iconic swipe experience by continuing to increase authenticity and realness and by setting the industry standard for trust and safety. We believe this will address some of the concerns that users have been vocal about more recently.
作為全球最大的約會應用,Tinder 的職責是為用戶提供優質服務,這反過來又有助於吸引新用戶。Tinder 在其趣味十足的傳統和標誌性的滑動體驗的基礎上,不斷提升真實性和可信度,並樹立了信任和安全方面的行業標準。我們相信這將解決用戶最近多次提出的部分問題。
Over the next 12 months, Tinder intends to integrate AI more deeply to make the dating journey simpler and more effective, such that we expect daters to look at Tinder and see an exciting, innovative, and fresh experience.
在接下來的 12 個月裡,Tinder 計劃更深入地整合人工智慧,使約會過程更簡單、更有效,我們希望約會者在使用 Tinder 時能夠獲得令人興奮、創新和耳目一新的體驗。
Tinder is already making strides as it works to achieve this vision. They've been working tirelessly to clean up its ecosystem, enhanced tools are being tested to increase authenticity, with more to come in Q3, and AI-driven tools, like Photo Selector are being deployed to make the Tinder experience easier and more effective.
Tinder 正在朝著實現這一願景邁進,並已取得長足進步。他們一直在不懈地努力清理其生態系統,正在測試增強工具以提高真實性,第三季還將推出更多工具,並且正在部署人工智慧驅動的工具(如照片選擇器),以使 Tinder 體驗更輕鬆、更有效。
Next year, I expect an even bolder evolution of product to vastly improve its core matching experience. You've heard a constant theme of innovation from us and it's happening. But keep in mind, when you have a $2 billion-plus revenue business and nearly 50 million MAU globally, all interacting in a connected and delicate ecosystem, innovation requires some pretty elite level gymnastics.
我預計明年產品將迎來更大膽的革新,大幅提升其核心配對體驗。你們已經從我們這裡反覆聽到「創新」這個詞,而創新正在發生。但請記住,當你的業務年收入超過 20 億美元,全球月活躍用戶近 5000 萬,而且所有這些都在一個相互關聯且微妙的生態系統中相互作用時,創新需要一些非常高水平的技巧。
This effort requires a willingness to reimagine the core while building off of what already makes Tinder, Tinder. It's what we began doing with a major ecosystem cleanup initiated mid last year. And while the results weren't entirely predictable and certainly not linear, we believe they are paying off.
這項努力需要我們願意重新構想其核心,同時在 Tinder 已有的特質基礎上發展。這是我們去年年中啟動的一項大型生態系統清理工作的內容。雖然結果並非完全可預測,也肯定不是線性的,但我們相信這些努力正在發揮成效。
We expect Tinder's initiatives to be iterative and continue to build off one another and to be coupled with continued strong marketing. There is even more to come in the second half of this year and into 2025 and I'm excited to share further progress with you at our Investor Day.
我們預期 Tinder 的各項措施將是迭代式的,並且會不斷相互促進,同時輔以持續強勁的行銷。今年下半年以及 2025 年還將有更多消息公佈,我很高興能在我們的投資者日上與大家分享更多進展。
Hinge continues to show remarkable performance, growing direct revenue nearly 50% year over year in Q2. It continues to rapidly grow its share of downloads in most of its markets. New product features like Your Turn Limits are driving higher quality conversations. Its AI-enabled Top Photo and Photo Finder are making the user journey meaningfully better and users are getting out on great dates even faster.
Hinge 持續展現卓越的業績,第二季直接營收年增近 50%。在其大部分市場中,該應用程式的下載份額持續快速成長。諸如「輪次限制」之類的新產品功能正在推動更高品質的對話。其人工智慧賦能的「熱門照片」和「照片查找器」功能顯著改善了用戶體驗,讓用戶能夠更快地找到心儀的約會對象。
Hinge's new marketing campaigns are also resonating, driving new user growth, and getting incredibly positive press coverage. We expect that over the coming quarters, Match Group will own both the leading dating app in the world with durable growth and the fastest-growing at-scale dating app for intention daters, as well as a host of growing brands behind them. Weâre also nurturing other growth brands across the portfolio.
Hinge 的新行銷活動也引起了廣泛共鳴,推動了新用戶成長,並獲得了媒體的極度正面報道。我們預計,在接下來的幾個季度裡,Match Group 將同時擁有全球領先的、具有持續增長潛力的約會應用程序,以及增長速度最快的、面向有目的約會者的大規模約會應用程序,此外,它們背後還將擁有眾多不斷增長的品牌。我們也正在培育旗下其他成長型品牌。
Azarâs user growth and financial momentum are strong, driven by cutting-edge AI product innovation and a successful expansion into Europe. We also continue to add demographically-focused emerging brands to our portfolio.
Azarâ的用戶成長和財務勢頭強勁,這得益於尖端的AI產品創新和在歐洲的成功擴張。我們也將繼續將以目標族群為導向的新興品牌納入我們的產品組合。
We see clear opportunities to build new social experiences and leverage the latest in technology. Our unyielding commitment to trust and safety, along with our utilization of AI in a safe and responsible way, will clearly benefit users across our entire portfolio.
我們看到了建立全新社交體驗和利用最新技術的明確機會。我們對信任和安全的堅定承諾,以及我們以安全負責的方式使用人工智慧,必將使我們所有產品組合的使用者受益。
In other areas of our business, we're refocusing our efforts to play to our strengths. We decided to exit live streaming services in our dating apps and sunset Hyperconnect's Hakuna app, which provides live streaming services, primarily in Korea and Japan.
在其他業務領域,我們正在重新調整工作重點,發揮自身優勢。我們決定停止在約會應用程式中提供直播服務,並關閉 Hyperconnect 的 Hakuna 應用,該應用程式主要在韓國和日本提供直播服務。
While live streaming services brought some benefits to our portfolio and users, a couple of things have changed since we undertook these businesses, which have made them less beneficial. Since the pandemic, with people sitting on Zooms all day, the novelty of live streaming video has declined. Additionally, these businesses require significant further investment and our financial profiles are below what we'd ultimately like our brands to achieve.
雖然直播服務為我們的產品組合和用戶帶來了一些好處,但自從我們開展這些業務以來,一些事情發生了變化,使得這些服務帶來的好處減少了。自從疫情爆發以來,人們整天坐在 Zoom 會議中,直播影片的新鮮感已經下降。此外,這些業務還需要大量後續投資,而我們目前的財務狀況低於我們最終希望旗下品牌達到的水平。
We expect exiting live streaming, along with other initiatives across the portfolio, will result in a workforce reduction of approximately 6% globally, which we expect to result in incremental annual cost savings of approximately $13 million, which is in addition to our previously disclosed cost saving expectations from our tech re-platforming efforts.
我們預計,退出直播業務以及投資組合中的其他舉措將導致全球員工人數減少約 6%,預計這將帶來每年約 1300 萬美元的額外成本節約,這還不包括我們先前披露的透過技術平台重構工作實現的成本節約預期。
It is important to reiterate the value that Hyperconnect has brought to Match Group, including a strongly growing asset in Azar and world-class AI expertise. The Hyperconnect team has been integral in creating several of the AI enabled features that have been introduced across our brands, including Tinder's Photo Selector and Hinge's Top Photo and Photo Finder. This is just one example of how we're leveraging common technologies across our portfolio, but tailoring them to each specific brand.
必須重申 Hyperconnect 為 Match Group 帶來的價值,包括 Azar 這一快速增長的資產和世界一流的 AI 專業知識。Hyperconnect 團隊在創建我們旗下多個品牌推出的 AI 功能方面發揮了至關重要的作用,包括 Tinder 的照片選擇器和 Hinge 的熱門照片和照片查找器。這只是我們如何利用產品組合中的通用技術,並根據每個特定品牌進行客製化的一個例子。
With this in mind, we plan to redeploy some of our retained Hyperconnect talent to Azar, Tinder, and Hinge, especially given the significant opportunity that we see to further embed AI-driven capabilities into our brands.
考慮到這一點,我們計劃將我們保留的 Hyperconnect 人才重新部署到 Azar、Tinder 和 Hinge,尤其考慮到我們看到了將人工智慧驅動的能力進一步融入我們品牌的巨大機會。
We recognize that shareholders rightfully expect both near and long-term results. We not only embrace that challenge, but we think it's exactly how innovation should occur. At Tinder, innovation in a large scale ecosystem makes it difficult to predict exactly which features will succeed and when. But the market opportunity is there, the vision is clear, and the team is executing.
我們理解股東理所當然地期望公司能取得短期和長期的表現。我們不僅欣然接受這項挑戰,也認為這正是創新應有的方式。在 Tinder,大規模生態系統中的創新使得準確預測哪些功能會成功以及何時成功變得困難。但市場機會就在那裡,願景很清晰,團隊正在執行。
Hinge's momentum is undeniable and is on its path to become a $1 billion revenue business. And we're being financially disciplined in undertaking all this product innovation, which we expect will result in sustained user growth.
Hinge的發展勢頭毋庸置疑,它正朝著年收入10億美元的目標邁進。我們在進行所有這些產品創新時都嚴格遵守財務紀律,我們預計這將帶來持續的用戶成長。
Moreover, where we don't see as clear a path to growth, we're cutting back on cost, as is the case with our evergreen brands. We understand that if we can't deliver a return to solid sustainable growth, other choices will need to be considered.
此外,對於成長前景不明朗的領域,我們會削減成本,就像我們的常青品牌一樣。我們明白,如果我們無法實現穩健永續成長,就需要考慮其他選擇。
We think that doomsday scenarios around dating apps are way overblown and you can start to see that in our results this quarter. We have product work to do, but once we do that, we are confident that the growth potential for our business is significant.
我們認為圍繞約會應用程式的末日預言被嚴重誇大了,這一點可以從我們本季度的業績中看出。我們還有一些產品的工作要做,但一旦完成這些工作,我們相信公司的發展潛力是巨大的。
Dating apps are still the best way for people to meet and we intend to continue to capture that opportunity. We welcome shareholder input and we remain committed to the delivery of increased shareholder value. We expect demonstrable progress quarter over quarter in our innovation and product development efforts. We believe return of capital can be a nice component of shareholder return, given the highly profitable and cash flow generative nature of our business.
約會軟體仍然是人們相識的最佳方式,我們打算繼續抓住這個機會。我們歡迎股東的意見,並將持續致力於提升股東價值。我們預計在創新和產品開發方面,每季都會取得顯著進展。鑑於我們業務的高獲利性和現金流產生特性,我們認為資本回饋可以成為股東回報的一個良好組成部分。
And we've been buying back our stock aggressively because we believe it represents a terrific long-term investment. We look forward to sharing a deeper dive in our first ever Investor Day in December, where I'm excited to showcase the management team behind these incredible apps. With that, I will hand it over to Gary.
我們一直在積極回購股票,因為我們相信它代表著一項絕佳的長期投資。我們期待在 12 月的首屆投資者日上與大家分享更深入的訊息,屆時我將向大家展示這些出色應用程式背後的管理團隊。然後,我就把它交給加里了。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, BK, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We exceeded our expectations in Q2 on both the top and bottom line, despite some unexpected headwinds. Match Group's total revenue was $864 million, up 4% year over year, while our FX neutral total revenue was $892 million, up 8% year over year. We experienced $6 million more in FX headwinds than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call.
謝謝BK,大家早安。感謝您今天蒞臨。儘管面臨一些意想不到的不利因素,但我們在第二季的營收和利潤都超出了預期。Match Group 的總營收為 8.64 億美元,年增 4%;而以匯率不變計算,總營收為 8.92 億美元,較去年同期成長 8%。我們在上次財報電話會議上預期的外匯不利影響中,實際損失比預期高出 600 萬美元。
In the quarter, revenue per payer grew 9%, while payers declined 5% year over year. Tinder delivered $480 million of direct revenue, up 1% year over year, up 4% FX neutral. Tinder payers declined 8% year over year to approximately 9.6 million, an improvement from the 9% year-over-year decline last quarter and above our expectations. Payers were down 78,000 sequentially. Tinder's Q2 RPP increased 10% year over year.
本季度,每位付款人的收入增加了 9%,而付款人數量則較去年同期下降了 5%。Tinder 直接收入達 4.8 億美元,年成長 1%,以匯率不變計算成長 4%。Tinder 付費用戶年減 8% 至約 960 萬,較上季年減 9% 的情況有所改善,並超越我們的預期。支付方數量較上月減少了7.8萬。Tinder第二季度RPP年增10%。
While growth in subscription revenue at Tinder was solid at 7% year over year in Q2, Tinder continued to experience pressure on a la carte revenue, which was down 17% year over year in the quarter. Tinder is rolling out various initiatives to address the ALC weakness, including unbundling current features, such as Passport and See Who Likes You, into ALC to attract users who may not be as open to subscriptions. Both are in test now.
儘管 Tinder 第二季度的訂閱收入年增 7%,表現穩健,但 Tinder 的單次付費收入繼續面臨壓力,該季度同比下降了 17%。Tinder 正在推出各種措施來解決 ALC 的弱點,包括將 Passport 和 See Who Likes You 等現有功能從 ALC 中分離出來,以吸引那些可能不太願意訂閱的用戶。兩者目前都在測試中。
Additionally, the team will shortly be testing two new ALC features: one that contextualizes someone's likes and another that helps foster ongoing engagement after matching. As a result, we're optimistic that Q2 will be a trough for declines in year-over-year ALC revenue and that trends will gradually improve in the second half of the year.
此外,團隊即將測試兩項新的 ALC 功能:一項用於了解某人的喜好,另一項用於幫助在配對後促進持續互動。因此,我們樂觀地認為,第二季將是ALC收入年減的低谷,並且下半年趨勢將逐步改善。
Hinge direct revenue was $134 million, up 48% year over year in Q2. Hinge payers were up 24% year over year to nearly 1.5 million while RPP of $30 was up 19% year over year. MG Asia's direct revenue declined 4% to $74 million, up 9% on an FX neutral basis.
Hinge 第二季直接營收為 1.34 億美元,年增 48%。Hinge 付費用戶較去年同期成長 24%,達到近 150 萬,而 RPP 為 30 美元的用戶較去年同期成長 19%。MG亞洲的直接收入下降4%至7,400萬美元,以固定匯率計算成長9%。
Azar direct revenue declined 1% in the quarter but was up 14% year over year FX neutral, despite still not being able to access the Saudi market, as its European expansion continued to contribute to results. Payers direct revenue fell 10% in the quarter, but was up 2% year-over-year FX neutral.
儘管仍未能進入沙烏地阿拉伯市場,但由於其歐洲擴張繼續為業績做出貢獻,Azar 的直接收入在本季度下降了 1%,但按匯率中性計算,同比增長了 14%。本季支付方直接收入下降了 10%,但以匯率不變計算,年增 2%。
Evergreen & Emerging brands direct revenue was $161 million, a decline of 8% year over year, driven by the Evergreen brands, which declined 13% year over year, while the Emerging brands collectively grew direct revenue 17% year over year in Q2.
常青品牌和新興品牌的直接收入為 1.61 億美元,年減 8%,其中常青品牌較去年同期下降 13%,而新興品牌在第二季的直接營收年增 17%。
Focusing on user trends, we saw sequential stability in Tinder's MAU, which were down 9% year over year in Q2, as was the case in Q1. MAU at Tinder have now been relatively stable since March. A large decline in MAU began in July of last year, driven in large part by changes we made to Tinder's trust and safety policies to remove people who are not truly on the app to connect. That has now begun to stabilize.
從用戶趨勢來看,Tinder 的每月活躍用戶數 (MAU) 保持穩定,第二季年減 9%,與第一季的情況相同。自三月以來,Tinder 的月活躍用戶數一直相對穩定。去年 7 月,每月活躍用戶數大幅下降,這主要是由於我們對 Tinder 的信任和安全政策進行了更改,以移除那些並非真正為了建立聯繫而使用該應用程式的用戶。情況現在已經開始穩定下來。
With much of this impact now behind us, and given Tinder's various ongoing product and marketing initiatives, we're confident Tinder's year-over-year MAU declines should continue to moderate as this year passes.
隨著大部分影響的過去,以及 Tinder 正在進行的各種產品和行銷舉措,我們相信,隨著今年的過去,Tinder 的年活躍用戶數同比下降幅度應該會繼續放緩。
Hinge's user growth continues to be very strong across its key markets with 14% year-over-year download growth and 21% year-over-year MAU growth in Q2. The app gained significant share in Q2, ranking as the number two dating app across its collective English-speaking markets in May and June, including number one in the UK, Australia, Ireland, Canada, and number three in the US.
Hinge 在其主要市場的用戶成長動能依然強勁,第二季下載量較去年同期成長 14%,每月活躍用戶較去年同期成長 21%。該應用程式在第二季度獲得了顯著的市場份額,在 5 月和 6 月,其所有英語市場中的約會應用程式排名第二,其中在英國、澳洲、愛爾蘭、加拿大排名第一,在美國排名第三。
In its European expansion markets in aggregate, Hinge ranked number two by downloads in June and jumped up the charts in most of the key countries/regions, including France and Germany. Switching to profitability: Match Group Q2 AOI was $306 million, up 2% year over year for a margin of 35%. Operating income was $205 million in Q2, down 5% year over year for a margin of 24%.
在歐洲擴張市場中,Hinge 6 月的下載量排名第二,並在包括法國和德國在內的大多數主要國家的排行榜上躍升。轉向獲利:Match Group 第二季營業收入為 3.06 億美元,較去年同期成長 2%,利潤率為 35%。第二季營業收入為 2.05 億美元,年減 5%,利潤率為 24%。
Q2 Match Group AOI and OI each benefited from the increase in revenue as a result of growth at Hinge and other brands and lower cost of revenue, partially offset by higher selling and marketing expenses, higher G&A expenses, which was primarily due to the new Canada digital services tax, and higher product development costs, which was primarily due to increased headcount in product at Tinder.
第二季 Match Group AOI 和 OI 均受益於 Hinge 和其他品牌的成長以及收入成本的降低,但部分被更高的銷售和行銷費用、更高的 G&A 費用(主要是由於新的加拿大數位服務稅)以及更高的產品開發成本(主要是由於 Tinder 產品部門人員增加)所抵消。
The increase in selling and marketing spend was primarily at Hinge, Tinder, and certain Emerging brands, partially offset by declines in marketing spend at other brands in our portfolio. Operating income was further impacted by increased SBC expense due to higher headcount and lower forfeitures of equity awards in 2024 than in 2023, and higher depreciation expense due to increases in internally developed software place and service, including at Tinder and Hyperconnect.
銷售和行銷支出的增加主要集中在 Hinge、Tinder 和某些新興品牌,部分被我們投資組合中其他品牌行銷支出的下降所抵消。2024 年員工人數較 2023 年增加,股權獎勵沒收減少,導致 SBC 費用增加,營業收入受到進一步影響;此外,由於內部開發的軟體場所和服務(包括 Tinder 和 Hyperconnect)增加,折舊費用也較高。
In Q2, we repurchased 6.4 million of our shares at an average price of approximately $31 per share on a trade date basis for a total of $197 million. Year to date, we have deployed just slightly more than 100% of our free cash flow for repurchases, well above our latest commitment to deploy more than 75% of our free cash flow for buybacks.
第二季度,我們以交易日平均每股約 31 美元的價格回購了 640 萬股股票,總計 1.97 億美元。今年迄今為止,我們已將略高於 100% 的自由現金流用於股票回購,遠高於我們最近承諾的將超過 75% 的自由現金流用於股票回購。
Since we resumed buybacks in May 2022, we have repurchased 35 million shares or 12% of the then outstanding shares. This would be 28 million shares or 10% net of newly issued shares for employee equity plans.
自 2022 年 5 月恢復股票回購以來,我們已回購了 3,500 萬股,佔當時流通股的 12%。這將相當於 2,800 萬股,或員工股權計劃新發行股份淨額的 10%。
With our net leverage below our 3 times target at 2.4 times, and $844 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, we have ample financial flexibility to continue returning at least 75% of our free cash flow to shareholders for the remainder of the year, which remains our objective.
由於我們的淨槓桿率低於 3 倍的目標值,僅為 2.4 倍,並且擁有 8.44 億美元的現金及現金等價物和短期投資,我們擁有充足的財務靈活性,可以在今年剩餘時間內繼續將至少 75% 的自由現金流返還給股東,這仍然是我們的目標。
For Q3 '24, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $895 million to $905 million, up 2% to 3% year over year, which would be 4% to 5% FX neutral. This range reflects the lost revenue from our exit of live streaming services, which we estimate will be about $8 million for the quarter, given we are exiting it mid-quarter.
我們預計 Match Group 2024 年第三季的總營收為 8.95 億美元至 9.05 億美元,年增 2% 至 3%,按匯率計算,成長率將達到 4% 至 5%。這個範圍反映了我們退出直播服務所造成的收入損失,鑑於我們是在季度中退出該服務,我們估計本季損失約為 800 萬美元。
Note that FX headwinds for the second half have worsened by about 1 point since our last earnings call. For both Tinder and the whole company, we currently expect FX to be nearly a 2-point year-over-year headwind in the back half of the year.
請注意,自上次財報電話會議以來,下半年的外匯不利因素已經惡化了約 1 個百分點。我們目前預計,外匯波動將在今年下半年對 Tinder 和整個公司造成近 2 個百分點的年比不利影響。
We expect direct revenue at Tinder to be $505 million to $510 million in Q3, roughly flat year over year and up approximately 2.5% FX neutral. This range reflects improving year-over-year MAU and payer trends and moderating year-over-year RPP gains. It also reflects the improvement in year-over-year ALC revenue trends I mentioned earlier due to new initiatives in this area.
我們預計 Tinder 第三季的直接營收為 5.05 億美元至 5.1 億美元,與去年同期基本持平,按匯率中立運算成長約 2.5%。這一範圍反映了MAU和支付方趨勢逐年改善,以及RPP逐年成長放緩。這也反映了我之前提到的由於該領域的新舉措而導致的 ALC 收入同比趨勢的改善。
We expect Tinder payers to decline at around 5% year over year in Q3, a further improvement from Q2 year-over-year levels, leading to positive sequential payer additions in Q3 of approximately 250,000. We expect continued improvement in year-over-year Tinder payers in Q4, though we expect typical seasonality to impact Q4 sequential payer additions.
我們預計 Tinder 付費用戶在第三季將年減約 5%,較第二季年減量有所改善,從而在第三季實現約 25 萬付費用戶季增。我們預計 Tinder 第四季的付費用戶數量將持續年增,但我們預計典型的季節性因素將影響第四季度付費用戶數量的環比成長。
Across our other brands, we expect Q3 direct revenue of $375 million to $380 million, up 5% to 6% year over year, up 7% to 8% FX neutral. Within our other brands, we expect Hinge to deliver approximately $145 million of direct revenue in Q3, year-over-year growth of 35%.
我們預計第三季其他品牌的直接收入為 3.75 億美元至 3.8 億美元,年增 5% 至 6%,按匯率不變計算成長 7% 至 8%。在我們旗下的其他品牌中,我們預計 Hinge 在第三季將帶來約 1.45 億美元的直接收入,年增 35%。
As Hinge strength continues, but it anniversaries the introduction of several impactful monetization initiatives in the back half of last year. We expect Match Group AOI of $335 million to $340 million in Q3, up slightly year over year and margin of 37.5% at the midpoints of the ranges, which would be stronger than our margins in the first half of the year.
Hinge 的發展勢頭依然強勁,但同時也標誌著去年下半年推出的幾項具有影響力的獲利舉措的周年紀念。我們預期 Match Group 第三季 AOI 為 3.35 億美元至 3.4 億美元,較上年同期略有成長,利潤率為 37.5%(取區間中位數),這將高於我們上半年的利潤率。
We expect overall Q3 marketing spend to be up about 6% year over year as we continue to roll out the latest Tinder marketing campaign, deploy marketing dollars to support our growth brands, including Hinge, Azar, and some Emerging brands, but reduce marketing spend at other brands. Our AOI range for the quarter reflects approximately $6 million in employee severance and other charges relating to the exit of live streaming as well as approximately $1 million for Canada's new digital services tax.
我們預計第三季整體行銷支出將年增約 6%,因為我們將繼續推出最新的 Tinder 行銷活動,並將行銷資金投入到我們的成長品牌(包括 Hinge、Azar 和一些新興品牌)中,但會減少其他品牌的行銷支出。本季我們的 AOI 範圍反映了約 600 萬美元的員工遣散費和其他與退出直播業務相關的費用,以及約 100 萬美元的加拿大新數位服務稅。
We expect Q3 OI to be impacted by roughly $50 million of impairments of intangibles and other charges related to the exit of our live streaming services. After accounting for the exit of live streaming services and based on our latest FX expectations, which have worsened by about 1 point since our last earnings call, we expect Match Group to deliver year-over-year total revenue growth of approximately 5%, up about 7.5% year-over-year FX neutral and Tinder to deliver roughly 3% year-over-year direct revenue growth, up approximately 5.5% year-over-year FX neutral for full year '24.
我們預計第三季營業收入將受到約 5,000 萬美元的無形資產減損以及與退出直播服務相關的其他費用的影響。考慮到直播服務的退出,並根據我們最新的外匯預期(自上次財報電話會議以來,該預期惡化了約 1 個百分點),我們預計 Match Group 2024 年全年總收入同比增長約 5%,按匯率中性計算同比增長約 7.5%;Tinder 2024 年全年直接同比增長率 3%,按約 5%,按約 5%。
We calculate that had we not elected to exit live streaming and FX headwinds not worsened, we would be on pace to deliver better than 6% total revenue growth for the year. We continue to expect to achieve our full year company AOI margin target of 36% despite incurring approximately $6 million of severance and other charges related to the exit of our live streaming businesses and $9 million of full year cost related to the Canada digital services tax, none of which was included in our initial outlook for 2024.
我們計算得出,如果我們沒有選擇退出直播業務,且外匯市場的不利因素沒有惡化,我們今年的總收入成長預計將超過 6%。儘管我們因退出直播業務而產生了約 600 萬美元的遣散費和其他費用,以及與加拿大數位服務稅相關的 900 萬美元全年成本(這些費用均未計入我們對 2024 年的初步展望中),但我們仍然期望實現全年公司 AOI 利潤率目標 36%。
I know there is significant focus on our longer-term consolidated AOI margins and free cash flow, so I want to make sure to outline the key considerations in this regard. As you heard BK talk about, we think the opportunity for our business remains significant and worth investing in, particularly at Tinder and Hinge. Our goal is to return the company to sustained revenue growth, which requires us to invest in the product experience and in marketing.
我知道大家非常關注我們長期的綜合營業收入利潤率和自由現金流,所以我想確保概述這方面的關鍵考慮因素。正如你從 BK 那裡聽到的,我們認為我們業務的機會仍然很大,值得投資,尤其是在 Tinder 和 Hinge 上。我們的目標是使公司恢復持續的收入成長,這需要我們投資於產品體驗和行銷。
We are judicious in how we allocate capital and we'll continue to exercise sound discipline. We believe we're already in the process of making important efficiency moves at our E&E brands and at Hyperconnect, which result in margins more consistent with our consolidated levels.
我們在資本配置方面一向謹慎,並將繼續秉持穩健的投資紀律。我們相信,我們已經在 E&E 品牌和 Hyperconnect 採取了重要的效率提升措施,這將使我們的利潤率與合併後的水平更加一致。
At Tinder and Hinge where we see significant global growth opportunities, we want to put the right building blocks in place around marketing, product and tech, particularly around AI, given how game-changing we think it can be. We believe this will be critical in remaining the leader in helping people spark meaningful connections over the next decade.
在 Tinder 和 Hinge,我們看到了巨大的全球成長機會,我們希望圍繞行銷、產品和技術,特別是人工智慧,建立正確的基礎架構,因為我們認為人工智慧可以帶來顛覆性的變革。我們相信,在未來十年裡,這對於我們繼續保持幫助人們建立有意義的聯繫的領先地位至關重要。
As we make those important investments, especially in AI talent for which competition is intense, we expect our AOI margins will continue to improve, but only modestly in the near term. Our expectation is that as revenue growth reaccelerates and we remain disciplined on cost, we will see additional expansion in our AOI margins even before any potential relief in app store fees.
隨著我們進行這些重要的投資,尤其是在競爭激烈的 AI 人才領域,我們預計我們的 AOI 利潤率將繼續提高,但短期內只會略有提高。我們預計,隨著收入成長再次加速,我們繼續嚴格控製成本,即使在應用商店費用可能降低之前,我們的 AOI 利潤率也將進一步擴大。
We fully recognize though that if the top line growth does not materialize as we expect, we'll need to consider all options, including reduced investment and other alternatives. That said, we remain very confident that we're on the right track.
但我們完全認識到,如果營收成長未能如預期般實現,我們將需要考慮所有選項,包括減少投資和其他替代方案。儘管如此,我們仍然非常有信心,我們正走在正確的道路上。
Our expectations are to deliver nearly $1.1 billion of free cash flow in 2024. We expect our 2024 AOI to free cash flow conversion level to be elevated compared to prior and future years due to an expected additional app store payment this year. And we expect our free cash flow conversion rate to return to more normalized levels in 2025.
我們預計 2024 年將實現近 11 億美元的自由現金流。由於今年預計將有一筆額外的應用程式商店付款,我們預計 2024 年 AOI 到自由現金流的轉換率將高於往年和未來幾年。我們預計到 2025 年,我們的自由現金流轉換率將恢復到更正常的水平。
As I mentioned, we expect to utilize at least 75% of our free cash flow for capital return via buybacks for the remainder of the year. We believe that our current stock price, our shares remain the best investment we can make with our capital.
正如我之前提到的,我們預計在今年剩餘的時間裡,至少將 75% 的自由現金流用於股票回購,以實現資本回報。我們相信,以目前的股價來看,我們的股票仍然是我們用現有資金所能做的最佳投資。
Given the opportunities we see in front of us and the current price of our stock, we believe repurchases will be highly accretive and represent a terrific long-term investment. We'll have much more to say on our growth, margin, and free cash flow expectations at our Investor Day later this year. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
鑑於我們面前的機會和我們股票目前的股價,我們相信股票回購將帶來巨大的收益,並代表著一項極佳的長期投資。我們將在今年稍後的投資者日上詳細闡述我們的成長、利潤率和自由現金流預期。這樣,我就可以請接線生開通提問專線了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Nathan Feather, Morgan Stanley.
(操作說明)內森·費瑟,摩根士丹利。
Nathan Feather - Analyst
Nathan Feather - Analyst
Hey, everyone. Congrats on the stabilization and Tinder user growth in the quarter. Is there anything outsized that led to that stabilization or more so stacking of a variety of individual improvements? And can you help us contextualize how much of that is due to new user trends versus retention? Thank you.
大家好。恭喜Tinder本季用戶數趨於穩定且實現成長。是否存在某種超乎尋常的因素導致了這種穩定局面,或者更確切地說,是各種個體改進措施的累積作用?您能否幫我們分析一下,其中有多少是因為新用戶成長趨勢,又有多少是因為用戶留存率提高?謝謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Nathan, for that question. I really like how you framed it around stacking Tinder product improvements. Our work is really a combination of product initiatives, building on each other over time. And this is reinforced with really strong marketing that is helping drive stabilization and start contributing to improvements on the back half of this year.
謝謝你的提問,內森。我非常喜歡你圍繞 Tinder 產品改進的層層遞進來構建這個框架的方式。我們的工作實際上是一系列產品計劃的組合,這些計劃隨著時間的推移而不斷發展。而強而有力的行銷也強化了這一點,這有助於推動市場穩定,並在今年下半年開始帶來改善。
The trust and safety moves that we made last year is a great example of stacking initiatives, which we know were the right decisions. And the good news is we've worked through a lot of that noise and has led to better user outcomes. And say that the user base has stabilized, retention is improving and growing, and we're making strides in top of funnel again, so really an exciting time period for Tinder.
我們去年採取的信任和安全措施是疊加各項措施的一個很好的例子,我們知道這些決定是正確的。好消息是,我們已經克服了許多幹擾因素,並且取得了更好的使用者體驗。假設用戶群已經穩定,用戶留存率正在提高和成長,我們在漏斗頂端再次取得進展,那麼對於 Tinder 來說,這真是一個令人興奮的時期。
Operator
Operator
Jason Helfstein, Oppenheimer.
傑森·赫爾夫斯坦,奧本海默。
Jason Helfstein - Analyst
Jason Helfstein - Analyst
Thanks. Just one question. So has Tinder returned to normal payer seasonality in 3Q now that MAU has stabilized? And how should we be looking at more normal seasonality â or should we be looking at more normal seasonality â in the first half of next year? Thank you.
謝謝。就一個問題。現在每月活躍用戶數已經穩定,Tinder 在第三季的付費用戶季節性是否已經恢復正常?那我們該如何看待更正常的季節性變化呢?或者我們該如何看待明年上半年更正常的季節性變化?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks for the question, Jason. Let me jump in and try to address it. So just a few things to point out. I mean if you look historically, I think, what youâll see is that we commonly see sequential improvement in payers Q3 over Q2, and itâs really because of two reasons which are actually related to one another. The first is that Q3 tends to be strong seasonally because it includes the summer vacation season, which is an active season for dating.
謝謝你的提問,傑森。讓我來試著解釋一下。所以,有幾點要指出。我的意思是,如果你回顧歷史,你會發現,我們通常會看到支付方第三季度的業績比第二季度有所改善,這實際上是由於兩個相互關聯的原因。首先,第三季度往往是季節性強季度,因為它包含了暑假,而暑假是約會的活躍季節。
And it also includes the back-to-school period where college students return to campus and also start to date actively. And we actually take advantage of the fact that people are focused on dating in that Q3 period by rolling out a lot of new features and initiatives in that period. And we often even reinforce that with marketing spend to call attention to the apps and to the new features. So Q3 does tend to be very seasonally strong for us.
它還包括返校季,大學生們會回到校園,並開始積極約會。我們實際上利用了人們在第三季專注於約會的事實,在這段時期推出了許多新功能和舉措。我們甚至經常透過行銷投入來強化這一點,以吸引人們對應用程式和新功能的注意。所以第三季對我們來說通常都是季節性強季。
When you look at Q4 by contrast, it tends to be a weaker period than Q3, and thatâs because people tend to start focusing on the holiday period and thinking about the holidays, whether itâs Thanksgiving in the US, Christmas across the world, et cetera, and they focus less on dating. And so we lose a lot of the fourth quarter as people think about other activities besides dating.
相較之下,第四季往往比第三季疲軟,這是因為人們開始關注假期,思考各種節日,無論是美國的感恩節、世界各地的聖誕節等等,而較少關注約會。因此,第四季度的大部分時間都被浪費掉了,因為人們會考慮約會以外的其他活動。
And of course, we tend not to roll out as many product initiatives in that fourth quarter and we generally tend to pull back on marketing, both because the audience isnât as focused and also because, of course, Q4 tends to be a much more expensive period to market against holiday marketing and so we tend to reduce our marketing spend in that quarter.
當然,我們通常不會在第四季度推出那麼多產品計劃,而且我們通常會減少行銷投入,這既是因為受眾的關注度不如其他季度,也是因為第四季度的營銷成本通常比節假日營銷高得多,所以我們往往會減少該季度的營銷支出。
And so youâre right that when you look at kind of typically what happens Q3 to Q4 from a user and a payer perspective, we do tend to see some level of sequential weakness in Q4 over Q3 after the strength weâve seen Q3 over Q2. I would say that this year, we plan to follow a similar pattern from the marketing perspective.
所以你說得對,從用戶和付費者的角度來看,通常情況下,從第三季度到第四季度,我們確實會看到,在第三季度相對於第二季度表現強勁之後,第四季度相對於第三季度會出現一定程度的連續疲軟。我想說,今年我們計劃從行銷的角度沿用類似的模式。
Weâve got the new global marketing campaign going at Tinder, which is seeing great success and I would expect us to invest into marketing in Q3. But then given the holiday period, I would expect us to pull back on a year-over-year basis and, frankly, sequentially in Q4 as well on the marketing side. So those are just some of the factors to consider as you think about the seasonal trends.
我們在 Tinder 上啟動了新的全球行銷活動,目前取得了巨大的成功,我預計我們將在第三季加大對行銷的投資。但考慮到假期,我預計我們在行銷方面會同比縮減開支,坦白說,第四季也會比去年同期縮減。以上只是你在考慮季節性趨勢時需要考慮的一些因素。
And I think youâre also right that as we think about 2025 â and itâs early, and so we'll provide more of an outlook on 2025 as we get a little bit later into this year as we typically do â but I think that with the stabilized MAU base at Tinder, we would expect a return to more seasonal trends in 2025 as we've seen historically. So I think you're right for both the rest of '24 and '25 from a seasonality perspective. I hope that answers your question.
而且我認為您說的也對,當我們考慮 2025 年的時候——現在還為時過早,所以我們會像往常一樣,在今年晚些時候提供更多關於 2025 年的展望——但我認為,隨著 Tinder 的月活躍用戶基數趨於穩定,我們預計 2025 年將回歸更多季節性趨勢,就像我們過去看到的那樣季節性趨勢,就像我們過去看到的那樣。所以我認為從季節性角度來看,你對 2024 年和 2025 年剩餘時間的看法都是正確的。希望我的回答能解答你的疑問。
Operator
Operator
Youssef Squali, Truist.
Youssef Squali,Truist。
Youssef Squali - Analyst
Youssef Squali - Analyst
Great. Thank you very much. Maybe a two parter. One, BK, can you talk a little bit more about kind of practical green shoots you're seeing from some of the changes you've made and from increased product velocity in Tinder?
偉大的。非常感謝。或許會分成兩部分。第一,BK,你能再詳細談談你從Tinder的一些改變以及產品迭代速度的提升中看到的實際成效嗎?
And maybe, Gary, do you believe -- I know you're not guiding quite yet for '25, but do you believe that the improvement you're seeing in Tinder if they sustain themselves into next year are enough to get the overall business back to maybe high single-digit, low double-digit growth in 2025? Or do you need to see other drivers maybe to get you there? Thank you very much.
加里,你認為——我知道你還沒有對 2025 年做出預測,但你是否認為,如果 Tinder 能夠保持目前的增長勢頭到明年,其整體業務增長是否足以在 2025 年恢復到接近兩位數或接近兩位數的水平?或者你需要找其他司機帶你到目的地嗎?非常感謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Great. Let me take a stab at describing the progress that we're making in Tinder. The turnaround is in progress and we're seeing great momentum. The team is super nimble when it comes to making decisions as some changes work and some changes don't, but the product velocity continues to be strong. We're making behind the scenes improvements like recommendation changes and that's increasing user engagement and doing really positive things with driving better user outcomes. At the same time, the marketing velocity continues to be strong.
偉大的。讓我試著描述一下我們在 Tinder 上的進展。情況正在好轉,我們看到了強勁的發展勢頭。團隊在做決策方面非常靈活,因為有些改變有效,有些改變無效,但產品迭代速度依然強勁。我們正在幕後進行改進,例如更改推薦設置,這提高了用戶參與度,並在推動用戶獲得更好結果方面發揮了非常積極的作用。同時,行銷速度依然強勁。
Like Gary mentioned, we continue to market and we're solidifying Tinder's brand position in the marketplace. We're investing in product marketing where it matters most. If I were to describe the green shoots that you were looking for, the things that get me really excited is when product and marketing really come together. A good example of that is what's happening right now with the Olympics. We're actually seeing a 25% increase in swipe activity in France and a 105% increase in Tinder Passport mode and that activity that's happening in Paris.
正如 Gary 所提到的,我們將繼續進行市場推廣,並鞏固 Tinder 在市場上的品牌地位。我們將投資重點放在產品行銷上。如果要我描述你所期待的“萌芽”,那就是產品和行銷真正結合起來的時候,這才是真正讓我興奮的事情。奧運現在就是一個很好的例子。我們實際看到法國的滑動活動增加了 25%,Tinder Passport 模式增加了 105%,而這些活動都發生在巴黎。
We actually purposefully unbundled Tinder Passport, so anyone around the world can teleport into Paris and interact with real athletes. And that's with integrated marketing at the same time, something that I'm really proud of. Our Olympics content that our marketing team has been working on has seen over 15 million impressions and over 10 million views. It's super exciting. Now we have a clear vision for Tinder's future and I can't wait to share more around that in our upcoming Investor Day.
我們特意將 Tinder Passport 分開銷售,讓世界各地的人可以瞬間移動到巴黎,與真正的運動員互動。同時,我們也採用了整合行銷策略,這一點我感到非常自豪。我們行銷團隊製作的奧運相關內容已經獲得了超過 1500 萬次的曝光和超過 1000 萬次的觀看。太令人興奮了。現在我們對 Tinder 的未來有了清晰的願景,我迫不及待地想在即將舉行的投資者日上與大家分享更多相關資訊。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
On your question about 2025, I'm going to resist the temptation to provide our outlook now and wait as we typically do until the fall period to do that. But I would say the following, which is: we've been pretty clear that 2024 needed to be a year of progress. First, stabilizing things and then starting to show improvement. And I think if you look at the outlook we're providing, and as BK mentioned in his remarks, that's exactly what's happening in the business.
關於您提出的 2025 年的問題,我打算克制住現在就給出我們展望的衝動,像往常一樣等到秋季再做預測。但我想說的是:我們已經非常明確地表示,2024 年必須是進步的一年。首先,穩定局面,然後開始出現好轉跡象。我認為,如果你看看我們提供的展望,正如 BK 在他的演講中提到的那樣,這正是該行業正在發生的事情。
We've reached a point of stabilizing users. We think it will get better on a year-over-year basis as we get into the back half of this year. And you can also see the same thing following through in payer trends, as you would expect: stabilization, and an expectation for improvement. And so we're checking the boxes here that we expected to check in that regard.
我們已經達到了用戶數量穩定的階段。我們認為,隨著今年下半年的到來,情況會逐年好轉。你也可以在支付方趨勢中看到同樣的趨勢,正如你所預期的那樣:趨於穩定,並預期會有所改善。所以,我們在這裡完成了我們預期要完成的那些工作。
And obviously, we don't consider that to be enough. We need to get back to improving MAU and improving payers on a year-over-year basis. And so we're going to continue to take those steps. We think that it will continue to improve through this year and into next.
顯然,我們認為這還不夠。我們需要重新開始逐年提高每月活躍用戶數和支付用戶數。因此,我們將繼續採取這些措施。我們認為這種情況在今年及明年會持續改善。
And it's incumbent on Tinder to continue to drive its product and marketing efforts to accomplish that, to drive better users, as we said earlier â to have products out there that people are excited about, that they tell their friends about, that they return to Tinder for.
因此,Tinder 有責任繼續推動其產品和行銷工作,以實現這一目標,吸引更好的用戶,正如我們之前所說,推出讓人們感到興奮、讓他們告訴朋友、讓他們再次回到 Tinder 的產品。
And as that happens, user growth will increase and ultimately, payer growth will increase. And that is really the key that has to happen. I think we're seeing the green shoots, as BK said â the first signs of that. It's still very early, which is why I'm resisting the temptation to go further in our outlook. But we feel good about where we are right now, and we feel like we'll continue to make the progress we need to make to position ourselves for a better 2025.
隨著這種情況的發生,用戶成長將會增加,最終,付費用戶成長也會增加。而這才是真正關鍵。我認為我們正在看到復甦的跡象,正如 BK 所說——這是最初的跡象。現在還為時過早,所以我盡量克制自己,不去進一步展望未來。但我們對目前的狀況感到滿意,並相信我們將繼續取得必要的進展,為迎接更美好的 2025 年做好準備。
Operator
Operator
Dan Salmon, New Street Research.
丹·薩蒙,新街研究。
Dan Salmon - Analyst
Dan Salmon - Analyst
Okay. Great. Good morning, everyone. So it's a little bit of an exceptional period here, obviously, as you guided to sequential growth for Tinder payers for several quarters now. I think that guidance for 250,000 sequential increase, that's likely even a little stronger than most expectations.
好的。偉大的。各位早安。顯然,這是一個比較特別的時期,因為您已經帶領 Tinder 的付費用戶連續幾季實現了成長。我認為,預計環比增長25萬的預期,甚至可能比大多數人的預期還要強一些。
So just considering the exceptional nature of the time, maybe BK or Gary, could you give us a little bit of a view in the Tinder payers trends so far in the third quarter through July and what gives you confidence in the trends that you're seeing right now? Thank you.
考慮到當前情勢的特殊性,BK 或 Gary,能否請你們談談第三季(截至 7 月)Tinder 付費用戶的趨勢,以及是什麼讓你們對目前看到的趨勢充滿信心?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Sure, Dan. I'm happy to try to do that. I would say that the momentum on Tinder payers has really been strengthening over the last several months. And when you look at Q2 as a whole on payers, the period was down sequentially by 78,000. But if we look kind of on a month-over-month basis inside that quarter, we've actually seen very solid sequential payer growth from April to May and May to June.
當然可以,丹。我很樂意嘗試。我認為,過去幾個月來,Tinder付費用戶的成長勢頭確實越來越強勁。從第二季整體來看,支付方數量較上季下降了 78,000。但如果我們按月來看,就會發現從 4 月到 5 月以及從 5 月到 6 月,支付方數量實際上都實現了非常穩健的環比增長。
And to your question, giving you a little sneak peek into Q3, we've actually seen continued payer strength from June into July. So I believe the sequential payer trends are very positive, and that's what's giving us confidence that we're going to be able to have a strong period of sequential net adds for Tinder in Q3. Now, it's only one month into the quarter, so I'll caution you â we still got work to do to get through August and September. So we're not done yet.
至於你的問題,給你提前透露第三季的情況,我們實際上看到支付方從六月到七月持續保持強勁勢頭。所以我認為付費用戶連續成長的趨勢非常積極,這也讓我們有信心,Tinder 在第三季將迎來強勁的淨成長期。現在,這個季度才過了一個月,所以我要提醒你們——我們還有很多工作要做才能度過八月和九月。所以,我們還沒完成。
But I believe that we're positioned to deliver on the 250,000 sequential net adds that we provided in our outlook, which would be an improvement in the year-over-year growth rate, which is really what I'm focused on, getting from negative 8% in Q2, which we just reported, to something closer to negative 5% in Q3.
但我相信我們有能力實現我們在展望中提出的連續25萬淨新增用戶的目標,這將改善同比增速,而這正是我真正關注的重點,即從我們剛剛公佈的第二季度的-8%降至第三季度的-5%左右。
Operator
Operator
Ken Gawrelski, Wells Fargo.
Ken Gawrelski,富國銀行。
Ken Gawrelski - Analyst
Ken Gawrelski - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Appreciate the question. You noted â maybe I'm going to draw you out, just try to draw you out a little bit more on 4Q because I know it's on a lot of investor minds â you noted that Tinder payer growth would continue to improve in 4Q from the minus 5% year over year in 3Q, but it would also be seasonally weaker than the 3Q plus 250,000 guide quarter over quarter. Do you expect Tinder payers to grow sequentially in 4Q based on where you sit today? Thank you.
謝謝。各位早安。感謝您的提問。您提到……也許我要引導您多談談第四季度,因為我知道很多投資者都在關注這個問題……您提到 Tinder 的付費用戶增長將在第四季度繼續改善,此前第三季度同比下降了 5%,但第四季度也會比第三季度加上 25 萬的指導值有所下降。根據你目前的預測,你認為 Tinder 的付費用戶在第四季會較上季成長嗎?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
So again, I'm going to try to return the thinking back to the year-over-year growth and the progress we're trying to make on payers in that regard and again, trying to get from negative 8% in Q2 to negative 5% in Q3. And even though we're not really at the point of providing Q4 outlook, saying that â as I said in the answer to the earlier question â we want to make more progress, we're expecting there to be more progress on a year-over-year basis, in Q4.
所以,我再次嘗試將思路重新聚焦於同比增速以及我們在這方面為支付方所取得的進展,並再次努力將第二季度的負 8% 降至第三季度的負 5%。儘管我們目前還沒有給出第四季度的展望,但正如我在對先前問題的回答中所說,我們希望取得更大的進步,我們預計第四季度將比去年同期取得更大的進步。
And so we think we'll do something better than negative 5% year over year in Q4. And I think if you do the math, you have to get -- we have to get to something better than negative 1% in Q4 on a year-over-year basis to have sequential payer growth in the quarter.
因此,我們認為第四季同比下降 5% 的情況會比去年同期好。我認為,如果你計算一下,你會發現,我們必須在第四季度實現同比下降 1% 以上,才能實現該季度支付方數量的環比增長。
And I think that's a fairly tall order. I think that it's not off the table, I'm not going to take it off the table, but I think it's a fairly tall order. And frankly the outlook that we've provided for the full year doesn't assume that we're going to do better than that in Q4, and so that would exceed our current expectations. And, again, thereâs a significant amount of seasonality.
我認為這是一項相當艱鉅的任務。我認為這並非完全不可能,我不會把它排除在外,但我認為這確實是一個相當高的要求。坦白說,我們對全年的展望並沒有假設我們在第四季度會做得更好,因此第四季的表現將超出我們目前的預期。而且,季節性因素也很明顯。
If you look back on Tinderâs performance over the years on payers, Q4 over Q3, even if you look at Hingeâs performance on payers, Q4 over Q3 last year, if you remember, it was a weaker period than it has historically been because it is typical to see a seasonal pattern for the reasons that I explained in Jasonâs question. And so, I just don't think that's the right way to look at it.
如果你回顧一下 Tinder 多年來在付費用戶方面的表現,第四季度與第三季度相比,即使你看看 Hinge 去年第四季度與第三季度在付費用戶方面的表現,如果你還記得的話,那是一個比歷史上更疲軟的時期,因為出現季節性模式是很常見的,原因我在 Jason 的問題中已經解釋過了。所以,我覺得那樣看待這個問題並不合適。
You have to expect seasonal pressure Q4 over Q3 as people focus on the holidays, but I do expect to see continued improvement on a year-over-year basis. And I think it's important because that's what's going to position us for better performance going into Q1 on a year-over-year basis, payers revenue, and position us for a stronger '25 than what we've had in 2024. And I think those are the important things to keep in mind.
預計第四季會比第三季面臨季節性壓力,因為人們會把注意力集中在假期上,但我預計將年比情況持續改善。我認為這很重要,因為這將使我們在第一季實現同比更好的業績,提高支付方收入,並使我們在 2025 年取得比 2024 年更強勁的成績。我認為這些都是需要牢記的重要事項。
Operator
Operator
Chris Kuntarich, UBS.
瑞銀集團的克里斯·昆塔里奇。
Chris Kuntarich - Analyst
Chris Kuntarich - Analyst
Great. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe one around the new swipe gestures in Tinder and the refreshed explore experience. Could you just frame how big of a product update this is versus the product refresh at the end of last year? And maybe the second part of this question would be, are you assuming any revenue upside from these product efforts in your '24 revenue guide? Thanks.
偉大的。感謝您回答這個問題。或許可以圍繞著 Tinder 的全新滑動操作和煥然一新的探索體驗展開討論。能否簡單說明一下,與去年年底的產品更新相比,這次產品更新的幅度有多大?或許問題的第二部分應該是,您在 2024 年的營收預測中是否預期這些產品舉措會帶來任何收入成長?謝謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Vertical swiping in Tinder is something that I'm super passionate about. I really believe it can lead to a more fulsome experience and deeper profile discovery. But when it comes to big changes in Tinder, these things do not happen overnight and they really need to be tested properly. For example, for swipe up, there is super valuable real estate given it currently has ALC connected to it.
我非常喜歡 Tinder 的垂直滑動功能。我真心相信這能帶來更豐富的體驗和更深入的個人資料發現。但對於 Tinder 的重大變革而言,這些變革不會在一夜之間發生,它們確實需要經過適當的測試。例如,對於向上滑動功能來說,由於它目前與 ALC 連接,因此具有非常寶貴的空間。
And then swipe down to explore, we have an opportunity to really revamp the entire explore experience to make it more social, more alive, and more fun. These iterative changes require deep testing. We have the right team that's on it and they're tireless around innovation, also making sure we understand the full impact to the ecosystem.
然後向下滑動進行探索,我們有機會真正徹底地改變整個探索體驗,使其更具社交性、更生動、更有趣。這些迭代式的改變需要深入的測試。我們擁有合適的團隊負責這項工作,他們在創新方面孜孜不倦,同時也確保我們了解對生態系統的全面影響。
I do think in '24, we did take a moment in time to evaluate the entire user experience. And I believe, as well as the team believes, that it can be a more elegant experience, and that's super important to our teams. Currently, right now, our central innovation team is working together with the Tinder team and leaning in on that user experience. And the things that I'm seeing from them are really exciting and I think it will lead to an overall better and more elegant experience.
我認為在 2024 年,我們確實花了一段時間來評估整個用戶體驗。而且我相信,團隊也相信,它可以帶來更優雅的體驗,這對我們的團隊來說至關重要。目前,我們的中央創新團隊正在與 Tinder 團隊合作,致力於提升使用者體驗。我看到他們所展現的成果令人振奮,我認為這將帶來整體上更好、更優雅的體驗。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Maybe just on the part about revenue. I would say we have a lot of features planned to be tested at Tinder in the fourth quarter. They're not really expected to be revenue generators in Q4 for 2024. They're really being tested and positioned for 2025. So our revenue outlook for the year really doesn't depend on these features contributing in any meaningful way to 2024.
或許只是關於收入那部分。我想說,我們計劃在第四季度在 Tinder 上測試很多功能。預計它們在 2024 年第四季不會產生收入。它們正在接受考驗,並為 2025 年做好準備。因此,我們對今年的營收預期實際上並不取決於這些功能能否在 2024 年做出任何有意義的貢獻。
Operator
Operator
Justin Patterson, KeyBanc.
Justin Patterson,KeyBanc。
Justin Patterson - Analyst
Justin Patterson - Analyst
Great. Thank you. Good morning. BK, I was hoping you can touch on the Tinder ecosystem some more. Which inning are you in on improving trust, safety, and user outcomes? And how have user perceptions changed over the past year? Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。早安.BK,我希望你能再多談談 Tinder 生態系統。在提升信任度、安全性和使用者體驗方面,您目前處於哪個階段?過去一年來,用戶的看法發生了哪些變化?謝謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Our ongoing efforts with trust and safety are critical to the success of the long-term ecosystem at Tinder. When it comes to your question on what inning we're in, there literally is no end game. We're continually looking at improving user experiences. We have the best when it comes to trust and safety, and platform and talent that are working on it. And weâre making the right decisions every single day with a focus on better user outcomes.
我們持續致力於建立信任和安全,這對 Tinder 長期生態系統的成功至關重要。至於你問我們現在處於第幾局,實際上並沒有比賽的終點。我們一直在努力改善用戶體驗。我們在信任和安全方面擁有最好的平台和人才。我們每天都在做出正確的決定,專注於提升使用者體驗。
But this is not a linear journey and the work literally never ends. For example, weâre continually thinking about big bold features like mandated face photos, which we are going to test, and then also new technologies around authenticating users. As for perception improvement, it's something that we're really zeroed in on.
但這並不是一條線性發展的道路,這項工作也永無止境。例如,我們一直在思考一些大膽的新特性,例如強制上傳人臉照片(我們將對此進行測試),以及圍繞用戶身份驗證的新技術。至於提升大眾認知度,這是我們目前重點關注的領域。
And like we said in the letter â and I'm going to try to do my best with regards to showcasing this impressive stat â but for women in the US aged 18 to 30, brand perception for âTinder is a place where I can find meaningful connectionsâ is up nearly 50%. And at the same time, Tinder's hookup stigma has fallen by 20%. This is tremendous progress with the demographic that our marketing teams are speaking directly to. So I'm really proud of these efforts.
正如我們在信中所說,我會盡我所能來展示這個令人印象深刻的數據,但對於美國 18 至 30 歲的女性來說,「Tinder 是一個我可以找到有意義的聯繫的地方」這一品牌認知度上升了近 50%。與此同時,人們對 Tinder 的約會污名化程度下降了 20%。對於我們行銷團隊直接面向的目標群而言,這是一個巨大的進步。所以我對這些努力感到非常自豪。
Operator
Operator
Cory Carpenter, JPMorgan.
科里·卡彭特,摩根大通。
Cory Carpenter - Analyst
Cory Carpenter - Analyst
Thank you. Could you expand on the rationale and some of the math behind the exit of the live streaming business? Thank you.
謝謝。能否詳細解釋一下退出直播業務的理由以及相關的數學計算?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Sure, Cory. Why don't I take that one? I know there's a lot of moving pieces to this and it's a little bit complicated, so let me try to step through it. Just to clarify, first of all, we really have two pieces where we have live streaming. We've got a stand-alone app, Hakuna, in Asia, which focuses on providing live streaming in Japan and Korea.
當然可以,科里。我為什麼不選那個?我知道這件事涉及很多方面,有點複雜,所以讓我一步一步地解釋一下。首先澄清一下,我們實際上有兩個地方提供直播。我們在亞洲推出了一款名為 Hakuna 的獨立應用程序,專注於為日本和韓國提供直播服務。
And then we provide live streaming services alongside some of our dating business, in PlentyOfFish primarily, in a couple of the other US-based apps. And those are the businesses that we're planning to exit here in the third quarter. And what I would say on live streaming is they basically have the same types of expenses as we see in our other dating businesses.
然後,我們還提供直播服務,作為我們約會業務的一部分,主要在 PlentyOfFish 上,也在其他幾款美國應用程式中提供。這些就是我們計劃在第三季退出的業務。關於直播,我想說的是,它們基本上和我們其他約會業務的支出類型相同。
But there's one significant difference, which is we need to provide a revenue share to the live streamers. And that can be 20% or even more of the revenue. And so that's an extra expense that we really don't see in our dating business.
但有一個顯著的差異,那就是我們需要向直播主播提供收入分成。這可能占到收入的 20% 甚至更多。所以,這是我們在約會業務中真正看不到的額外開支。
And as a result of that, the margins in live streaming are probably in the 20%s range for a business that's at scale versus our dating businesses, which, as you know, can be 30% or higher from a margin perspective. So there's a significant difference in the economics of the live streaming business versus the dating business.
因此,對於規模化經營的直播業務而言,利潤率可能在 20% 左右,而我們的約會業務,正如您所知,從利潤率的角度來看,可以達到 30% 甚至更高。所以直播產業和約會產業在經濟效益上有顯著差異。
In addition to them having lower margins, it's become much more challenging to grow live streaming in our apps over the last few years because there's been significant competition from very well-funded players, including most of the big social media platforms â and I, of course, point at TikTok as the most significant dominant player in the space.
除了利潤率較低之外,過去幾年,由於資金雄厚的競爭對手(包括大多數大型社交媒體平台)的激烈競爭,在我們的應用程式中發展直播業務變得更加困難——當然,我指的是TikTok,它是該領域最重要的主導者。
And so when we entered into live streaming a few years ago and the world was different, it was pre-COVID and everything else, but live streaming at that point, we thought, provided an attractive kind of adjacent additional source of revenue for us. And right now, this year, we expected roughly a $60 million revenue contribution from live streaming.
所以幾年前我們開始涉足直播領域時,世界與現在截然不同,那時還沒有新冠疫情等等,但我們認為,直播在當時為我們提供了一種有吸引力的、額外的收入來源。今年,我們預計直播將帶來約 6,000 萬美元的收入貢獻。
But growing that revenue base has become much, much more challenging in the face of the competition and the changed landscape and dynamics that we're facing. And not only that, but to reach the scale that we need to reach, to achieve even reasonable margins from our perspective, was going to take a significant amount of investment for a significant number of years, even in the best-case scenario.
但面對競爭以及我們所面臨的不斷變化的環境和動態,擴大收入基礎變得更加具有挑戰性。不僅如此,即使在最好的情況下,要達到我們需要的規模,甚至要從我們的角度來看獲得合理的利潤,也需要大量的投資,而且需要持續相當長的時間。
And so when you boil it down, we felt that these businesses are not strategic to what we do. It's not likely -- they're not likely to be revenue growth enhancing, and they're likely to be margin dilutive for a long period of time. It makes more sense in our minds to exit those businesses now. And in fact, what we can do is, we can re-deploy some of the great talent we have in these businesses into other businesses of ours where we have a much stronger position.
所以歸根究底,我們認為這些業務對我們的策略發展沒有幫助。不太可能——它們不太可能促進收入成長,而且很可能在很長一段時間內稀釋利潤率。我們認為現在退出這些業務更有意義。事實上,我們可以將這些業務中的一些優秀人才重新部署到我們其他更有優勢的業務領域。
And so we made that decision, and we're foregoing the $60 million of revenue â which for next year probably will create a 1 to 2 point revenue growth headwind for us â but these were AOI drags this year. And so when we look at the margin impact for next year, I think we can expect at least a 50 basis points improvement in the margins as a result of exiting these businesses.
因此我們做出了這個決定,放棄了 6000 萬美元的收入,這可能會在明年給我們帶來 1 到 2 個百分點的收入成長阻力,但這些是今年的 AOI 拖累因素。因此,當我們展望明年的利潤率影響時,我認為我們可以預期,退出這些業務後,利潤率至少會提高 50 個基點。
So we'll factor all that into everything else we're thinking about for next year, but the move to exit now should create a 50 basis point tailwind for us on the margin side. And the only other thing I wanted to make sure people are clear on â and BK alluded to it in his remarks â as a result of our decision to exit live streaming and some other things that we're doing around the portfolio, we're expecting to reduce our workforce by 6%, net of people that were moving into other businesses and that we're retaining.
因此,我們會將所有這些因素納入我們明年考慮的其他事項中,但現在退出的舉措應該會在利潤率方面為我們帶來 50 個基點的利好。還有一件事我想確保大家明白——BK 在他的演講中也提到了這一點——由於我們決定退出直播業務以及我們在投資組合方面所做的一些其他事情,我們預計員工人數將減少 6%,這還不包括那些轉到其他業務部門並被我們保留下來的員工。
And so that should lead to $13 million of savings, which is on top of the savings that we've already talked about and that we're planning to achieve by full year 2026 from the re-platforming at the E&E businesses. So I just want to make sure people understand all the moving pieces around the efficiencies because there are quite a few of them. So I hope that helps answer your question and I appreciate the question.
因此,這將節省 1300 萬美元,這還不包括我們已經討論過的、我們計劃在 2026 年全年透過 E&E 業務的平台重構實現的節省。所以我想確保大家了解效率提升過程中涉及的所有環節,因為環節相當多。希望我的回答能幫助你,感謝你的提問。
Operator
Operator
Ygal Arounian, Citigroup.
Ygal Arounian,花旗集團。
Ygal Arounian - Analyst
Ygal Arounian - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, guys. I want to shift to Hinge. We got a lot of questions from investors on Hinge's strengths and how to think about the difference there or the better than industry-level strength that we've seen consistently at Hinge and we're seeing acceleration here again this quarter. I know you touched on it on the call a little bit, but can we expand on that a little bit?
謝謝。各位早安。我想轉用Hinge。投資者提出了很多關於 Hinge 的優勢以及如何看待 Hinge 的優勢與行業平均水平之間的差異的問題,而且我們在本季度再次看到了這種優勢的加速增長。我知道您在電話會議中稍微提到了這一點,但我們能否再詳細討論一下?
How much of what youâre seeing is kind of simple market expansion, monetization expansion, versus product initiatives and factors? What do you think the biggest product factors have been and what you're seeing there in the strength? And how does that inform the product road map that you're laying out for Hinge? Thanks.
你看到的這些變化中,有多少是簡單的市場擴張和獲利擴張,又有多少是產品創新和相關因素?您認為影響產品性能的最大因素是什麼?您從中看到了哪些優勢?那麼,這會如何影響您為 Hinge 制定的產品路線圖呢?謝謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hinge is an absolute rocket ship for Match Group, and it's on track to become a $1 billion-plus revenue business. We're super pleased with its current performance and the continual investment in product as well as in marketing and global expansion. But the team is not resting on its laurels. We're continually building out new features and improving user experiences.
Hinge 對 Match Group 來說絕對是一艘火箭,它有望成為一家年收入超過 10 億美元的企業。我們對其目前的表現以及在產品、行銷和全球擴張方面的持續投入感到非常滿意。但球隊並沒有因此而沾沾自喜。我們不斷開發新功能,並改善使用者體驗。
Examples of that are things that are in test and fully rolled out like Top Photo and Photo Finder, which utilize best-in-class AI. I'm really impressed by the team's vision of incorporating AI into the full user experience and in every touch point of the Hinge user experience. Our future road map will utilize AI to really fulfill Hinge's North Star around getting people on great dates even faster. So there's continued momentum and we're continuing to invest in Hinge's growth.
例如,像 Top Photo 和 Photo Finder 這樣正在測試和全面推出的功能,都利用了頂尖的人工智慧。團隊將人工智慧融入整個使用者體驗以及 Hinge 使用者體驗的每個接觸點的願景讓我印象深刻。我們未來的發展路線圖將利用人工智慧來真正實現Hinge的北極星目標,即更快地讓人們找到美好的約會對象。因此,發展勢頭依然強勁,我們將繼續投資於 Hinge 的發展。
Operator
Operator
Shweta Khajuria, Wolfe Research.
Shweta Khajuria,Wolfe Research。
Shweta Khajuria - Analyst
Shweta Khajuria - Analyst
Thank you. Let me try -- two please. BK, could you please talk about your conversations with Starboard intra-quarter? There was a release, to the extent, that you can share, any commentary on that would very much appreciate it.
謝謝。讓我試試——請給我兩個。BK,您能否談談您與Starboard在季度內的溝通情況?已經發布了一些內容,如果您能分享一下,我將非常感激。
And then, Gary, when we think about the third quarter net adds for Tinder, could you please provide specific examples that give you confidence in this number in terms of, is it the a la carte that -- the improvement in a la carte that's going to be helping? Is it unbundling and a la carte? Is it the product updates that you've made so far that will just be compounding? Could you help us parse that out in terms of what is contributing to the third quarter net adds? Thanks a lot.
那麼,Gary,當我們考慮 Tinder 第三季的淨新增用戶時,您能否提供一些具體的例子,說明為什麼您對這個數字有信心,例如,單點功能的改進是否會有所幫助?這是分拆銷售、單點供應嗎?你們目前為止所做的產品更新是否只會產生累積效應?您能否幫我們分析一下,究竟是什麼因素促成了第三季的淨成長?多謝。
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Bernard Kim - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I can take the Starboard section, but â we've had some initial interactions with Starboard, which were typical with interactions that we've had with other potential investors. Then, as you all know, on July 15, they shared that they were a large shareholder and published a letter. Now we believe that the topics raised by Starboard are already key areas of focus for our teams and are things that we have actually heard from other significant shareholders as well.
我可以接受 Starboard 部分,但我們與 Starboard 進行了一些初步接觸,這與我們與其他潛在投資者的接觸類似。然後,正如大家所知,7月15日,他們宣布自己是大股東,並發表了一封公開信。現在我們認為,Starboard 提出的這些議題已經是我們團隊關注的重點領域,而我們也從其他重要股東那裡聽到類似的觀點。
These three areas are returning Tinder to growth, improving margins, and returning more capital to shareholders. We've been taking significant steps in all three of these areas, including investing in Tinder product and marketing to drive growth, reducing headcount, and undertaking tech re-platforming to drive margins, and then re-deploying 75% of our free cash flow to buy back shares. We continue to look forward to engaging with all of our shareholders and then getting their input on how we can continue to drive shareholder value.
這三個方面正在幫助 Tinder 重回成長軌道,提高利潤率,並為股東帶來更多回報。我們在這三個領域都採取了重大舉措,包括投資 Tinder 產品和行銷以推動成長、減少員工人數、進行技術平台重構以提高利潤率,然後將 75% 的自由現金流重新部署用於回購股票。我們期待繼續與所有股東溝通,並聽取他們對如何持續提升股東價值的意見。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
I think on the second part of your question, Shweta, you really have to think of kind of the trajectory of Tinder, as BK said earlier, of being driven by a series of things, not just one particular thing. And it's really on product and on marketing. And so we've cleaned up the ecosystem. That has helped; it's led to a stabilization now in users. That is helping the physics of the business in terms of payer trends, et cetera. The marketing is really resonating.
Shweta,關於你問題的第二部分,我認為你真的需要考慮 Tinder 的發展軌跡,就像 BK 之前說的那樣,它是由一系列因素驅動的,而不僅僅是一個特定因素。關鍵在於產品和行銷。因此,我們清理了生態系統。這確實有所幫助;用戶數量現在趨於穩定。這有助於從支付方趨勢等方面了解業務的運作機制。這次行銷活動真的引起了共鳴。
I think that the sense of Tinder is a place where people can meet people is really improving. The perception of the app continues to improve. All that marketing spend that we've done on the brand over the last year plus has really started to pay benefits. And so all of that is contributing as well as a series of product initiatives and things that we're doing, whether those are optimizations which we continue to do or whether those are other feature changes as well.
我認為Tinder作為人們結識新朋友的平台這個概念正在不斷提升。用戶對此應用程式的評價持續提升。過去一年多來,我們在品牌行銷方面投入的所有資金已經開始真正產生效益了。因此,所有這些因素,以及我們正在進行的一系列產品計劃和舉措,無論是我們持續進行的優化,還是其他功能變更,都對此有所貢獻。
And so it's really a bunch of things starting to work at Tinder, which frankly has been the plan all along, that it was going to be a multifaceted approach â that it wasn't going to be one silver bullet, but rather be a series of initiatives, product and marketing working together to drive improvement at Tinder. And I think that's what you're really starting to see the fruits of here as we expect the third quarter to shape up.
所以,這實際上是 Tinder 的一系列舉措開始奏效的結果,坦白說,這始終是計劃的一部分,即採取多方面的方法——而不是依靠單一的靈丹妙藥,而是一系列產品和營銷舉措共同推動 Tinder 的改進。我認為,隨著我們預期第三季的情況逐漸明朗,我們現在開始看到這些努力的成果了。
Operator
Operator
Benjamin Black, Deutsche Bank.
班傑明·布萊克,德意志銀行。
Benjamin Black - Analyst
Benjamin Black - Analyst
Great. Thank you for taking my question. Just one on capital allocation. So you've given a target of at least 75% for capital returns, but for the last two quarters, you returned more than 100%. So how are you thinking about the right amount here? And then would you potentially also consider a dividend? Thank you.
偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。僅涉及資本配置。你們設定的資本報酬率目標至少為 75%,但在過去的兩個季度裡,你們的報酬率超過了 100%。那麼,你覺得合適的金額是多少呢?那麼,您是否會考慮派發股息呢?謝謝。
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Ben. Let me jump in and take that. Look, I think that 75%-plus return is the right level for the company to commit to and that remains our stated commitment. But the Board evaluates the right amount for us to be deploying for buybacks on an ongoing basis. They are very involved in this aspect of the business: they look at our share price, they look at our business outlook, they look at a variety of factors, and we try to make a determination of what the right level to buy back is.
謝謝你,本。讓我來接手吧。我認為,75%以上的報酬率是公司應該承諾的合適水平,這也是我們既定的承諾。但董事會將持續評估我們應該投入多少資金用於股票回購。他們非常關注業務的這一方面:他們會關注我們的股價,關注我們的業務前景,關注各種因素,然後我們會努力確定回購的合適水平。
And as you rightly pointed out, we bought back just over 100% through the first half of the year. So we've been more aggressive. And obviously, that was in part because our share price in our mind was very low relative to the opportunity we see for the company over the coming years. So it's not an immediate one quarter thing, but we think over the long-term, we're going to feel good about having bought a lot of stock back at these levels.
正如您所指出的,我們在今年上半年回購了略高於 100% 的股份。所以我們採取了更積極的策略。顯然,部分原因是我們認為公司未來的發展機會遠大於股價。所以這不是一個季度就能立即見效的事情,但我們認為從長遠來看,我們會對以這些價位買回大量股票感到滿意。
And so we factor all of that in and we'll continue to do so as we move forward. As far as the dividend goes, it's an interesting question. As you're probably aware, some very successful large growth companies have implemented dividends over the last little while. And we think it's a logical thing to do as a component of the capital return.
因此,我們會將所有這些因素考慮在內,並且在未來的工作中也會繼續這樣做。至於股息問題,這倒是個有趣的問題。您可能已經注意到,一些非常成功的大型成長型公司在最近一段時間內已經開始派發股息。我們認為,作為資本回報的一部分,這樣做是合乎邏輯的。
So dividends working alongside buybacks to drive return for shareholders is something that we have thought about and continue to think about, but we don't think that now is the time to do it and we're steadfastly focused on buybacks at this point in time. So that is unchanging at the moment. But if there's updates in our thinking, we'll certainly convey it to you all.
因此,我們一直在考慮分紅與股票回購相結合以推動股東回報的問題,並且會繼續考慮這個問題,但我們認為現在還不是這樣做的時候,目前我們堅定地專注於股票回購。所以目前情況沒有改變。但如果我們的想法有任何更新,我們一定會及時通知大家。
I think we have time maybe for one more question after Ben. So why don't we just try to get that in here quickly?
我覺得在Ben之後,我們或許還有時間再問一個問題。那我們為什麼不趕快把它弄進來呢?
Operator
Operator
Curtis Nagle, Bank of America.
柯蒂斯‧納格爾,美國銀行。
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Curtis Nagle - Analyst
Great. Thanks so much for squeezing me in. So just returning back to Hinge. How do we think about the gross profit prospects and timing and I guess probability of hitting that $1 billion-plus in revenue, outperformed in 2Q, 3Q guide ahead? In the letter, I think you said you're now targeting to be the number two brand, I think that's new. To me, I think, it suggests you're more confident in growth. So is that fair and just how should we think through all that?
偉大的。非常感謝你擠出時間幫我。所以,我又回到Hinge了。我們如何看待毛利前景和時間安排,以及實現超過 10 億美元營收的機率(第二季業績超出預期),以及即將到來的第三季業績指引?在信中,我想您提到您現在的目標是成為第二大品牌,我認為這是新的目標。我認為,這顯示你對成長更有信心。那麼,這樣做公平公正嗎?我們應該如何考慮這些問題?
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Gary Swidler - President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Thanks for the question. Look, I think, that's right, what you say â that our confidence in the Hinge platform has been increasing over the last little while. And I think most of that is really driven as we look at the user trends and the fact that Hinge continues to move up in the rankings in various countries and regions from a downloads perspective, which is telling us that the product really continues to resonate. It's a differentiated product. People really like using that product and continue to see it as a go-to product.
是的。謝謝你的提問。你看,我認為你說得對,我們對 Hinge 平台的信心在過去一段時間裡一直在增強。我認為,這主要源於我們對用戶趨勢的觀察,以及Hinge在各個國家和地區的下載量排名持續上升的事實,這表明該產品確實繼續引起用戶的共鳴。這是一款差異化產品。人們非常喜歡使用該產品,並一直將其視為首選產品。
And that's really having effect on the overall dating landscape as well as improving our confidence in the prospects for Hinge. So when we look at the ability for Hinge to be a $1 billion business in a few years, we absolutely think it's there and we're driving towards that.
這確實對整個約會格局產生了影響,同時也增強了我們對 Hinge 前景的信心。所以,當我們展望Hinge在幾年內成為一家市值10億美元的企業時,我們絕對認為這是可以實現的,而且我們正在朝著這個目標努力。
And something that I would just point out, which I'm not sure people fully appreciate, is that Hinge, which is on track to deliver well over $500 million of revenue this year, derives less than 10% of its revenue from its European expansion market.
我還要指出一點,我不確定人們是否充分意識到,Hinge 今年的收入預計將超過 5 億美元,但其歐洲擴張市場的收入佔不到 10%。
So we've been spending a lot of money in those markets to drive awareness and that is clearly working, but the revenue has really just started to trickle in. And so it shows sort of the opportunity for us to have a much bigger business at Hinge in these European markets.
因此,我們一直在這些市場投入大量資金來提高知名度,這顯然是有效的,但收入才剛開始緩慢成長。因此,這表明 Hinge 在歐洲市場擁有更大的發展機會。
And it also shows the nature of our business, which is â we make these investments initially and plant the seed, so to speak, and then we're going to harvest them down the road. And that's what's happening in Hinge, which obviously over time will be accretive to margins as well. So that is kind of the business that we're in â planting the seeds for future harvesting. Hinge is a great example.
這也體現了我們業務的本質,那就是我們最初進行這些投資,就像播下種子一樣,然後我們將來會收穫它們。而這正是 Hinge 正在發生的事情,顯然隨著時間的推移,這也將有助於提高利潤率。所以,這就是我們所從事的行業——為未來的收穫播下種子。鉸鏈就是一個很好的例子。
We're about to start doing that at Azar as well, and we'll continue to do that where we see opportunities. And that's what drives the future revenue growth. So I'm going to leave it there just because we are out of time, but hopefully, that mostly at least addresses your question. And I'll just thank everyone for having joined us this morning. We appreciate everybody's time. Enjoy the rest of your summer, and we'll talk to you all soon.
我們即將開始在 Azar 這樣做,並且我們將在看到機會的地方繼續這樣做。而這正是未來營收成長的驅動力。因為時間到了,我就先說到這裡吧,但希望這至少能解答你的大部分疑問。最後,我要感謝今天早上所有到場的各位。感謝大家抽出時間。祝大家暑假愉快,我們很快再聯絡。
Operator
Operator
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation and you may now disconnect.
會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講,現在可以斷開連接了。