使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.
歡迎參加Match Group 2024年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作說明)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。
I would like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
現在我將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁坦尼·謝爾伯恩女士。請開始吧。
Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR
Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.
謝謝接線員,大家早安。今天的電話會議將由執行長伯納德·金和總裁兼財務長加里·斯威德勒主持。他們將作簡短致辭,之後我們將開放提問環節。
Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC.
在會議開始之前,我需要提醒各位,我們可能會在本次電話會議中討論公司前景和未來業績。這些前瞻性陳述可能包含「我們預期」、「我們相信」、「我們預期」或類似表述。這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響,我們的實際業績可能與今天表達的觀點有重大差異。部分風險已在我們的獲利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)的定期報告中列出。
During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the shareholder letter on our IR website. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results.
在本次電話會議中,我們將討論一些非公認會計準則(非GAAP)財務指標。與最直接可比較的公認會計準則(GAAP)財務指標的調節表已在公司投資者關係網站上的股東信中提供。這些非GAAP指標並非旨在取代我們的GAAP績效。
With that, I'd like to turn over the call to BK.
接下來,我想把電話交給BK。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. I know much of our discussion today will focus on near-term trends and challenges. Both Gary and I will address those headwinds, and we will discuss it in Q&A. And while some of the current trends are challenging, it does not dissuade us from what we believe is long-term opportunity.
各位早安,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。我知道我們今天的討論主要集中在近期趨勢和挑戰。我和Gary都會談到這些不利因素,我們會在問答環節來討論。雖然目前的一些趨勢充滿挑戰,但這並不會動搖我們對長期機會的信念。
So I want to start with the big picture and that opportunity. As we look at the state of the dating industry today, one thing remains very clear. For those daters looking to go on a date and meet someone in real life, our apps empower people to make meaningful connections like no other platform.
所以我想先從宏觀角度談談這個機會。縱觀當今約會產業的現狀,有一點非常明確:對於那些渴望約會、渴望在現實生活中結識新朋友的用戶來說,我們的應用程式能夠幫助他們建立有意義的聯繫,這是其他任何平台都無法比擬的。
In today's dating scene, many people still hold onto that nostalgic, romantic idea of meeting someone organically. However, the reality is that chances for a spontaneous meet-cute are becoming increasingly rare. Even in settings like bars, where social interactions are expected, single daters looking to meet someone are actually on their phones using apps to navigate their social and romantic lives.
在現今的約會場景中,許多人仍然懷抱著那種懷舊浪漫的邂逅幻想。然而,現實情況是,這種偶遇的機會變得越來越少。即使在酒吧這種人們期待社交互動的場所,想要結識另一半的單身人士也往往低頭玩手機,使用各種約會軟體來處理社交和情感事務。
Our apps are strategically designed to bridge this gap, leveraging technology to serve as a springboard to get you on a great date that may not have happened otherwise. That's why dating apps have become the primary way people meet today, particularly in more developed markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.
我們的應用程式經過精心設計,旨在彌補這一差距,利用科技為您創造絕佳的約會機會,讓您有機會邂逅原本可能不會發生的精彩邂逅。正因如此,約會應用程式已成為人們如今的主要相識方式,尤其是在美國和西歐等已開發市場。
Surprisingly, there are still so many people who don't use our apps and many more who aren't actively dating, creating a massive opportunity and a significant runway for growth, as we aim to redefine the meet-cute and create safer places for all singles to find a meaningful connection.
令人驚訝的是,仍然有很多人不使用我們的應用程序,還有更多的人沒有積極約會,這為我們提供了巨大的機會和廣闊的增長空間,因為我們的目標是重新定義邂逅,並為所有單身人士創造更安全的場所,讓他們找到有意義的聯繫。
Over the last two years, we've made meaningful progress at Match Group. Our brands have executed against well-defined product and marketing initiatives. Tinder continues to be an iconic brand worldwide and the entry point to dating for each new generation.
過去兩年,Match Group取得了顯著進展。旗下品牌都成功執行了既定的產品和行銷計畫。 Tinder依然是全球標誌性品牌,也是每一代開啟約會旅程的首選平台。
Hinge has been a standout, demonstrating tremendous growth based on their brand promise for intentioned daters to get out on great dates. We are more confident than ever that the business is well on its way to generating $1 billion in revenue. Hinge is resonating well in markets that we've entered and being very thoughtful about the user experience to help ensure that we're building a great community and truly delivering on our mission.
Hinge表現突出,憑藉其「幫助有約會意願的用戶找到理想伴侶」的品牌承諾,實現了驚人的成長。我們比以往任何時候都更加確信,公司正朝著10億美元的營收目標穩步邁進。 Hinge在我們進入的市場中反應良好,我們非常注重用戶體驗,以確保我們能夠建立一個優秀的社區,真正實現我們的使命。
We've launched several new apps tailored at select demographics, where we see real potential, and these platforms within our Emerging brands portfolio have performed very well. In particular, we want to call out the progress on Archer, which is focused on gay men and demonstrating really strong momentum.
我們針對特定人群推出了多款全新應用,這些人群具有巨大的發展潛力,而這些平台也都隸屬於我們的新興品牌組合,並且表現非常出色。尤其值得一提的是,專注於男同性戀群體的 Archer 應用取得了顯著進展,目前發展勢頭強勁。
The app recently hit more than 700,000 downloads since it launched last year. Engagement is up even more, growing triple digits, which indicates that we have a strong ecosystem and users who are loving it.
該應用程式自去年推出以來,下載量最近突破了70萬次。用戶參與度成長更為顯著,達到了三位數,這表明我們擁有強大的生態系統,用戶也對它讚不絕口。
I also want to point out that we've achieved this growth without significantly increasing our investment in marketing since the beginning of the year. The Archer team is revved up and continues to innovate the user experience to make it the most dynamic and engaging app for this community.
我還想指出,自年初以來,我們在行銷方面的投入並未大幅增加,卻依然實現了這樣的成長。 Archer 團隊士氣高昂,不斷創新使用者體驗,力求打造為社群中最具活力與吸引力的應用。
Across the portfolio, we've continued to deploy resources more efficiently. The Hyperconnect team is working on projects with most of our other businesses and has fantastic talent that we believe will continue to add value to our various brands.
在整個業務組合中,我們持續提升資源配置效率。 Hyperconnect 團隊正與我們旗下大多數業務部門合作開展項目,團隊中擁有傑出的人才,我們相信他們將繼續為我們旗下的各個品牌創造價值。
Now we get a lot of questions about monthly active users, and I want to remind everyone that our business's approach is very different from other social platforms. Our goal is to see real single users find a date and then get off of our apps. We focus on attracting singles who want to make real connections and satisfying our daters who are earnest in their intentions by delivering great experiences.
現在我們收到了很多關於每月活躍用戶的問題,我想提醒大家,我們公司的營運模式與其他社群平台截然不同。我們的目標是讓真正的單身用戶找到約會對象,然後離開我們的應用程式。我們專注於吸引那些渴望建立真實關係的單身人士,並透過提供優質的體驗來滿足那些真心想尋找伴侶的使用者。
Tinder's international scale and reach has never been matched by any other dating app, and it's critical that we keep the ecosystem vibrant. For example, Tinder took decisive action by changing its community guidelines and moderation practices mid last year, which better enabled the removal of users who are not on the app for its intended purposes.
Tinder 的國際規模和影響力是其他任何約會應用程式都無法比擬的,因此保持其生態系統的活力至關重要。例如,Tinder 在去年年中採取了果斷措施,修改了社群準則和審核機制,以便更好地移除那些並非出於應用預期目的而使用的使用者。
While the improvements to the ecosystem and benefits to the brand are undeniable, these actions did contribute to some of Tinder's MAU declines over the past 9 months. We believe that actions like these are in the best interest of Tinder's long-term success, so we are willing to accept fewer MAU in the short term to create a safer ecosystem and better outcomes for our daters.
雖然這些舉措對生態系統和品牌帶來的益處毋庸置疑,但它們也導致了 Tinder 過去 9 個月月活躍用戶數 (MAU) 的部分下降。我們相信,這些措施符合 Tinder 的長期發展利益,因此我們願意接受短期內較低的月活躍用戶數,以創造一個更安全的生態系統,並為我們的約會用戶帶來更好的體驗。
Diving a little deeper into Tinder, we have heard loud and clear that some users, especially the Gen Z cohort, are looking for more from their dating apps. We have been in this business a long time, and we have consistently adapted our offerings to best serve the needs of different generations. And we understand and recognize that expectations of apps are changing.
深入了解 Tinder 後,我們發現,部分用戶,尤其是 Z 世代用戶,希望從約會應用程式中獲得更多功能。我們深耕這個產業多年,始終致力於調整產品和服務,以更好地滿足不同世代的需求。我們也理解並意識到,用戶對約會應用程式的期望正在改變。
Tinder is working tirelessly to execute against their strategy, and I'm incredibly confident in the team's ability to satisfy these evolving expectations that users have. By the end of the year, we expect to have a significantly improved product.
Tinder正不遺餘力地執行其策略,我對團隊滿足用戶不斷變化的需求的能力充滿信心。我們預計到年底,產品將顯著改進。
Similarly, pressures on discretionary consumer spending, especially among Tinder's younger user base, have negatively impacted Tinder's a la carte revenue. The team is doubling down on its efforts to improve the efficacy of its current ALC features and introduce new offerings at affordable price points. We expect to see improvements in ALC trends by the back half of the year.
同樣,消費者可支配支出,尤其是Tinder年輕用戶群的支出壓力,也對Tinder的單次付費服務收入產生了負面影響。團隊正在加倍努力,提升現有單次付費服務的有效性,並以實惠的價格推出新的服務。我們預計下半年單次付費服務的趨勢將會改善。
We know we have work to do to satisfy every new generation of daters. The Tinder team is working to improve the dating journey at every point of the experience. Through innovation, especially with AI, we believe we can improve the quality of profiles, matching outcomes, safety features and the post-match experience to make the entire Tinder platform more modern and deliver on their brand promise.
我們深知,為了滿足每一代約會者的需求,我們還有很多工作要做。 Tinder 團隊正致力於在約會體驗的每個環節中進行最佳化。我們相信,透過創新,特別是人工智慧技術的應用,我們可以提升個人資料的品質、匹配結果、安全功能以及匹配後的體驗,從而使整個 Tinder 平台更加現代化,並兌現我們的品牌承諾。
I've asked our Chief Technology Officer and his central innovation team to work even more closely with Tinder's product team to expedite all these efforts, which are underway. And given Tinder's vast scale and knowledge about relationships and dating, there is no dating app better positioned to take advantage of these advances in technology.
我已經要求首席技術長及其核心創新團隊與 Tinder 的產品團隊更緊密地合作,加快推進所有這些正在進行的工作。鑑於 Tinder 龐大的規模以及在人際關係和約會方面的豐富經驗,沒有任何約會應用程式比它更有優勢來利用這些技術進步。
Tinder has become an industry-defining, highly profitable business over the past decade. We have been innovating to solve some of the user pain points. As a result, we will have a healthier, more satisfying and, ultimately, more valuable experience for daters to enjoy. And I am confident that Tinder's momentum will come back.
過去十年,Tinder 已發展成為行業標桿,並成為一家盈利豐厚的企業。我們一直在創新,致力於解決使用者痛點。因此,我們將為約會者提供更健康、更令人滿意、最終也更有價值的體驗。我相信 Tinder 的發展勢頭將會重現。
We believe we have real market opportunity and the right teams and strategies in place to get to that next level of growth, and we are determined to deliver that for all of our stakeholders.
我們相信我們擁有真正的市場機會,並且擁有合適的團隊和策略來實現下一個成長階段,我們決心為所有利害關係人實現這一目標。
We continue to see significant growth runway at Hinge and our emerging brands portfolio. We're executing on our turnaround plan for Tinder, and our central innovation teams are bringing renewed vigor to product innovation. We are excited to continue this work, as giving people new, exciting ways to connect is what motivates us every day.
我們持續看到 Hinge 和旗下新興品牌組合擁有巨大的成長潛力。我們正在推動 Tinder 的轉型計劃,我們的中央創新團隊也正為產品創新註入新的活力。我們很高興能夠繼續這項工作,因為為人們提供全新、令人興奮的連接方式是我們每天工作的動力。
And with that, let me turn it over to Gary.
那麼,接下來就交給加里吧。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Thanks, BK, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. Our business demonstrated strong financial performance to start the year with FX-neutral results coming in ahead of our expectations.
謝謝BK,大家好。感謝各位今天上午的參與。今年年初,我們公司財務業績表現強勁,以匯率調整後的業績超乎預期。
Match Group's Total Revenue was $860 million, up 9% year-over-year and 12% FX neutral in Q1. Revenue per Payer grew 16%, while Payers declined 6% year-over-year. We experienced $2 million more in FX headwinds than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call. We generated $267 million of free cash flow in the quarter.
Match Group第一季總營收為8.6億美元,年增9%,依匯率調整後成長12%。每位付費用戶的收入增加了16%,而付費用戶數量則較去年同期下降了6%。我們受到的匯率不利影響比上次財報電話會議時的預期高出200萬美元。本季我們創造了2.67億美元的自由現金流。
Tinder likewise delivered 9% year-over-year Direct Revenue growth, 12% FX neutral. Hinge grew Direct Revenue 50% year-over-year, ahead of our expectations for the second consecutive quarter.
Tinder的直接收入年增9%,以固定匯率計算成長12%。 Hinge的直接營收年增50%,連續第二季超乎預期。
MG Asia's and Evergreen & Emerging Brands's Direct Revenue declined 6% and 4%, respectively, year-over-year, although MG Asia was up 7% FX neutral. Azar grew Direct Revenue 20% year-over-year FX neutral.
MG亞洲和常青及新興品牌業務的直接收入較去年同期分別下降6%和4%,但MG亞洲的直接收入經匯率調整後成長了7%。 Azar的直接收入經匯率調整後較去年同期成長了20%。
The emerging brands collectively grew Direct Revenue 23% year-over-year. We welcomed some new demographically focused apps to the E&E portfolio. Archer continued to show strong user growth, as BK mentioned, and the app experience continued to evolve to better satisfy the target audience.
新興品牌整體直接營收年增23%。我們為娛樂和娛樂產品組合新增了一些針對特定族群的應用。正如BK所提到的,Archer的用戶成長勢頭依然強勁,應用體驗也在不斷改進,以更好地滿足目標用戶的需求。
Q1 Tinder Direct Revenue was $481 million, driven by RPP that increased 20% year-over-year to $16.52, due to the effects of the U.S. price optimizations and weekly packages we rolled out starting in late Q1 2023. There was better stability at the top of the funnel at Tinder in the first quarter, with new users down only 4% year-over-year on a like-for-like basis, factoring in that we exited 2 countries.
Tinder第一季直接營收為4.81億美元,主要得益於每用戶平均營收(RPP)年增20%至16.52美元,主要歸功於我們於2023年第一季末開始在美國推出的價格優化和周套餐計畫。第一季Tinder用戶轉換漏斗頂端的穩定性有所提升,考慮到我們退出了兩個國家,新用戶數量較去年同期僅下降4%。
While Tinder also experienced a decline in monthly active users in the quarter, the decisions we made to change Tinder's policies and moderation practices starting last summer to enable easier elimination of users who are not on the app to really connect led to an approximately 2 million decline in Tinder MAU. This decline included bad actors and users who were some of the least engaged on the platform.
雖然Tinder本季月活躍用戶數也有所下降,但我們從去年夏天開始調整Tinder的政策和審核機制,以便更容易地剔除那些並非真正為了建立聯繫而使用應用的用戶,這導致Tinder月活躍用戶數下降了約200萬。這其中既包括一些不良用戶,也包括一些在平台上參與度最低的用戶。
We will fight this comp all year, but we'll have it fully anniversaried by the end of 2024. We believe that these actions are beneficial to the overall ecosystem health, and we are already seeing signs of improvement in key engagement metrics that we track.
我們將全年與競爭對手抗爭,但到 2024 年底,我們將徹底完成周年紀念。我們相信這些措施有利於整個生態系統的健康,而且我們已經看到我們追蹤的關鍵參與度指標有所改善的跡象。
For example, Tinder's ratio of daily active users to monthly active users reached some of its highest levels, well north of 40% in Q1, an improvement of 14 basis points versus Q1 of last year. Although impactful to MAU, we believe this was the right decision for the ecosystem.
例如,Tinder 的每日活躍用戶與每月活躍用戶比例在第一季達到了歷史最高水平,遠超 40%,較去年同期提升了 14 個基點。儘管這對每月活躍用戶數 (MAU) 造成了一定影響,但我們認為這對整個生態系統來說是正確的決定。
Tinder's Payers declined 9% year-over-year in Q1 to just under 10 million, and we're down 255,000 sequentially, just slightly worse than our expectations. While growth in subscription revenue at Tinder was strong at 17% year-over-year, primarily due to the increase in RPP, Tinder continued to experience pressure on a la carte revenue, which was down 13% year-over-year in the quarter.
Tinder第一季的付費用戶較去年同期下降9%,略低於1,000萬,較上季下降25.5萬,略低於預期。儘管Tinder的訂閱營收年增17%,表現強勁,主要得益於RPP(每用戶付費額)的成長,但其單次付費收入持續承壓,本季年減13%。
We believe the decline in ALC revenue stems from user declines and lower average purchase volumes, in part due to weaker consumer discretionary spending among its younger user base, among other reasons. The weaker growth in ALC is a continuation of a trend that has been going on for a while now, but has been becoming more severe of late.
我們認為ALC收入下滑源自於用戶數量減少和平均購買量下降,部分原因是其年輕用戶群可支配支出疲軟,以及其他一些原因。 ALC成長放緩是持續一段時間的趨勢的延續,但近期情況愈發嚴峻。
Our Hinge brand continues to perform very well. Hinge Direct Revenue was $124 million in Q1. Hinge Payers were up 31% year-over-year to 1.4 million, while RPP of nearly $29 was up 14% year-over-year. Hinge's downloads continued to be strong in both core English-speaking and Western European markets, growing approximately 20% year-over-year globally in Q1.
我們的 Hinge 品牌表現持續強勁。第一季 Hinge 直接營收達 1.24 億美元。 Hinge 付費用戶年增 31% 至 140 萬,而每位用戶平均收入 (RPP) 近 29 美元,較去年同期成長 14%。 Hinge 在核心英語市場和西歐市場的下載量持續保持強勁,第一季全球下載量年增約 20%。
We're confident that Hinge is in the very early stages of its monetization efforts, with Payer penetration defined as Payers to monthly active users just above half that at Tinder, providing ample room for expansion. The user growth trends, global expansion opportunities and monetization runway give us optimism around Hinge's long-term outlook. We believe Hinge is on track to become a $1 billion revenue business.
我們相信 Hinge 的獲利模式仍處於起步階段,其付費用戶佔月活躍用戶的比例略高於 Tinder 的一半,這為其未來的成長留下了充足的空間。用戶成長趨勢、全球擴張機會以及獲利潛力都讓我們對 Hinge 的長期前景充滿信心。我們相信 Hinge 有望成為一家年收入達 10 億美元的公司。
Match Group's Q1 AOI was $279 million, up 6% year-over-year for a margin of 33%. Operating income was $185 million in Q1, down 7% year-over-year for a margin of 21%. Q1 Match Group AOI and OI each benefited from the increase in revenue as a result of growth at Tinder and Hinge, partially offset by an expected nearly $30 million or 20% year-over-year increase in selling and marketing expenses and an increase in cost of revenue due to higher app store fees.
Match Group第一季總營業收入(AOI)為2.79億美元,較去年同期成長6%,利潤率為33%。第一季營業收入為1.85億美元,年減7%,利潤率為21%。 Match Group第一季總營業收入和營業收入均受益於Tinder和Hinge業務成長帶來的營收成長,但部分被預期近3,000萬美元(年成長20%)的銷售和行銷費用成長以及應用商店費用上漲導致的營收成本增加所抵銷。
The increase in selling and marketing spend was primarily at Tinder, Hinge and certain Emerging brands, offset by declines in marketing spend at multiple other brands. Operating income was further impacted by increased SBC expense due to increased hiring activity to support product development efforts, unusually high forfeitures in the prior year period and other factors.
銷售和行銷支出增加主要集中在 Tinder、Hinge 和部分新興品牌,但被其他多個品牌行銷支出的下降所抵消。此外,由於為支持產品開發而增加的招聘活動、去年同期異常高的資產沒收以及其他因素,導致 SBC 費用增加,營業收入也受到進一步影響。
While SBC expense rose, the grant value of awards to employees was approximately flat year-over-year, as we focused on controlling the level of new equity awards to employees, which impacts future period SBC expense.
雖然 SBC 支出有所增加,但授予員工的獎勵價值與去年同期基本持平,因為我們專注於控制授予員工的新股權獎勵水平,這會影響未來期間的 SBC 支出。
Additionally, OI was impacted by a 94% year-over-year increase in depreciation expense due to increases in internally developed software placed in service, including at Tinder and Hyperconnect.
此外,由於內部開發的軟體投入使用量增加(包括在 Tinder 和 Hyperconnect 中),OI 的折舊費用比去年同期增加了 94%,這對 OI 造成了影響。
We repurchased approximately $200 million of our shares in Q1 at an average price of approximately $35 per share on a trade date basis, reducing our share count by approximately 6 million. This represented a deployment of roughly 75% of our Q1 free cash flow, delivering on our commitment to deploy more than 50% of our free cash flow for share repurchases.
第一季度,我們以平均每股約35美元的價格(以交易日計算)回購了約2億美元的股票,使我們的股票數量減少了約600萬股。這相當於我們第一季自由現金流的約75%,履行了我們將超過50%的自由現金流用於股票回購的承諾。
With our net leverage below our target at 2.3x and $800 million remaining on our share buyback authorization, we expect to continue returning at least 75% of our free cash flow to shareholders for the remainder of the year.
由於我們的淨槓桿率低於目標值 2.3 倍,且股票回購授權額度還剩 8 億美元,我們預計在今年剩餘時間內將繼續向股東返還至少 75% 的自由現金流。
For Q2 '24, we expect Total Revenue for Match Group of $850 million to $860 million, up 2% to 4% year-over-year and 5% to 6% FX neutral. We expect Direct Revenue at Tinder to be $475 million to $480 million in Q2, flat to up 1% year-over-year, up 3% to 4% FX neutral.
我們預期Match Group在2024年第二季的總營收為8.5億美元至8.6億美元,年增2%至4%,並以匯率調整後成長5%至6%。我們預期Tinder在第二季的直接營收為4.75億美元至4.8億美元,年增1%至持平,按匯率調整後成長3%至4%。
The user growth and ALC revenue headwinds at Tinder, plus the effect of the anniversary of various monetization initiatives we implemented starting in late Q1 of last year, are impacting Tinder's Direct Revenue growth rate, which is below our target for the business.
Tinder 的用戶成長和 ALC 收入面臨不利因素,加上我們從去年第一季末開始實施的各種變現計畫週年紀念日的影響,正在影響 Tinder 的直接收入成長率,使其低於我們為該業務設定的目標。
The Tinder team is focused on implementing monetization initiatives to strengthen revenue growth. These initiatives include revisions to existing ALC features and introducing new offerings. We expect our product work to lead to significantly better year-over-year trends in ALC revenue in the back half of this year. These initiatives are in addition to the extensive work being done to improve the app experience and the health of the ecosystem.
Tinder團隊正致力於實施一系列獲利舉措,以增強收入成長。這些措施包括對現有ALC功能進行調整,並推出新的服務。我們預計,產品的努力將在今年下半年大幅提升ALC收入的年增速。同時,我們也積極改善應用體驗,並致力於提升生態系統的健康度。
We expect Tinder Payers to decline at similar rates year-over-year in Q2 as they did in Q1, leading to a modest improvement in sequential Payer trends in Q2 compared to Q1. We continue to anticipate positive sequential Payer additions at Tinder in Q3.
我們預期Tinder付費用戶在第二季年減幅度將與第一季相近,導致第二季付費用戶數季減較第一季略有改善。我們仍預期Tinder第三季付費用戶數將較上季成長。
Across our other brands, we expect Q2 Direct Revenue of $360 million to $365 million, up 5% to 7% year-over-year, 8% to 10% FX neutral. Within our other brands, we expect Hinge to deliver $125 million to $130 million of Direct Revenue in Q2, year-over-year growth of 38% to 44%.
我們預估旗下其他品牌第二季直接營收為3.6億美元至3.65億美元,年增5%至7%,依匯率調整後成長8%至10%。其中,我們預期Hinge第二季直接營收為1.25億美元至1.3億美元,年增38%至44%。
We expect Match Group AOI of $300 million to $305 million in Q2, roughly flat year-over-year, and margin of 35% at the midpoints of the ranges. We expect overall Q2 marketing spend to be about $25 million higher than in the prior year quarter, largely due to increased spend at Hinge, Tinder and some E&E brands.
我們預期Match Group第二季平均廣告收入(AOI)為3億至3.05億美元,與去年同期大致持平,利潤率取區間中位數約為35%。我們預計第二季整體行銷支出將比去年同期增加約2,500萬美元,主要原因是Hinge、Tinder以及部分娛樂娛樂品牌的支出增加。
We opted into Apple's new app store policies in the EU on April 1, so we expect at least $5 million per quarter of IAP fee savings going forward, assuming no further changes in app store policies.
我們在 4 月 1 日在歐盟選擇了蘋果新的應用程式商店政策,因此我們預計,假設應用程式商店政策不再發生變化,未來每季至少可以節省 500 萬美元的應用程式內購買費用。
We're complying with our settlement agreement with Google, which requires us to adopt Google Play billing, user choice billing and/or developer-only billing across our brands. This change is creating some modest conversion headwinds for us, but we're working to adjust to this new reality, and Google is making improvements on their end as well.
我們正在遵守與Google達成的和解協議,該協議要求我們在旗下所有品牌中採用 Google Play 結算、用戶選擇結算和/或僅限開發者結算方式。這項變化為我們帶來了一些轉換率的挑戰,但我們正在努力適應這一新情況,而谷歌方面也在做出改進。
Reflecting our Q2 expectations and the latest trends at Tinder, we currently expect low single-digit year-over-year Direct Revenue growth rates at Tinder for the remaining quarters of 2024, although they could be higher if some of the product initiatives deliver or ALC revenue or other trends improve beyond our current expectations.
根據我們對第二季度的預期以及 Tinder 的最新趨勢,我們目前預計 Tinder 在 2024 年剩餘季度的直接收入同比增長率將保持在較低的個位數,但如果某些產品計劃取得成效,或者 ALC 收入或其他趨勢的改善超出我們目前的預期,則增長率可能會更高。
This updated rest-of-year outlook leads us to anticipate low to mid-single-digit year-over-year Direct Revenue growth for Tinder for full year 2024. Given this, for the full year, we expect total company revenue growth to be near the lower end of our previously stated 6% to 9% year-over-year Total Revenue growth target range, unless there is a material over-delivery of our expectations by our other brands, particularly Hinge.
根據更新後的剩餘年度展望,我們預計 Tinder 2024 年全年直接收入年增率將處於個位數低至中等水平。有鑑於此,除非我們的其他品牌(尤其是 Hinge)的業績大幅超出預期,否則我們預計全年公司總收入增長將接近我們先前設定的 6% 至 9% 的同比增長目標區間的下限。
For both Tinder and the whole company, we currently expect FX to be about a 1 point year-over-year headwind in the back half of the year.
我們目前預計,外匯波動將在今年下半年對 Tinder 和整個公司造成約 1 個百分點的年比不利影響。
We remain focused on delivering AOI margin of at least 36% for Match Group in 2024. We are continuously evaluating the previously disclosed investments in marketing and product innovation at Tinder, Hinge and in new experiences and will adjust as appropriate.
我們仍致力於在2024年為Match Group實現至少36%的AOI利潤率。我們將持續評估先前揭露的對Tinder、Hinge的行銷和產品創新以及新體驗方面的投資,並視情況進行調整。
Our outlook is for Match Group to generate nearly $1.1 billion of free cash flow in 2024, and we expect to utilize at least 75% of our free cash flow for capital return for the remainder of the year. We believe that at our current stock price, our shares remain the best investment we can make with our capital.
我們預計Match Group在2024年將產生近11億美元的自由現金流,並計劃在今年剩餘時間內將至少75%的自由現金流用於資本回報。我們相信,以目前的股價來看,我們的股票仍然是我們用現有資金所能做的最佳投資。
With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
這樣,我就可以請接線生開通提問專線了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.
(操作員指示)今天的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的班傑明·布萊克。
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Great. It'd be great to hear what's giving you confidence that Tinder net adds will return to sequential growth in the third quarter, despite the steady decline in Payers we're seeing today. And is there something that you're seeing maybe as it pertains to conversion trends that you can point us to that is providing this optimism?
太好了。儘管目前付費用戶數量持續下降,但您為何如此確信 Tinder 的淨新增用戶數量將在第三季度恢復環比增長,我們很想知道原因。另外,您能否指出一些與轉換率趨勢相關的因素,讓我們對此前景感到樂觀?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Thanks, Ben, for the question. First of all, in terms of trends that we're seeing at Tinder, I just want to point out a few different things.
謝謝Ben的提問。首先,關於我們在Tinder上觀察到的趨勢,我想指出幾點。
So first of all, conversion has improved dramatically, and that's in part because we've lowered pricing -- sorry, we raised pricing -- sorry, we rolled out weekly subscription packages, which, as a result of that, are lower prices, and that has led to improved conversion, right?
首先,轉換率大幅提高,部分原因是我們降低了價格——抱歉,我們提高了價格——抱歉,我們推出了每週訂閱套餐,因此價格更低,從而提高了轉換率,對吧?
But those subscribers that are signing up for the weekly subscription packages are there for a shorter duration period, so they're in the Payer count for less time. So that's one of the trends that's going on inside of the business.
但是,那些選擇每週訂閱套餐的用戶訂閱時間較短,因此他們在付費用戶總數中的佔比也較低。這是公司內部正在發生的趨勢之一。
We also have declining user base. We have declining MAU. And so we need conversion to work harder. We need to generate more Payers on a smaller user base. So those are the trends that are happening.
我們的用戶基數也在下降,每月活躍用戶數也在下降。因此,我們需要更加努力地提高轉換率,在用戶基數較小的情況下,吸引更多付費用戶。以上就是目前的趨勢。
If you look at the Payers on a year-over-year basis, we talked about how Payers declined 9% in the first quarter, and we expect Payers to decline at a similar level in the second quarter. I think if you do the math, you'll see that we need the product initiatives that we have planned at Tinder to improve the user trends and to improve conversion sufficiently that the 9% year-over-year decline in Payers improves a little bit to 8% or 7%.
如果從年比角度來看付費用戶數量,我們之前提到第一季付費用戶數量下降了 9%,我們預計第二季付費用戶數也會出現類似的下降。我認為,如果你仔細計算一下,你會發現我們需要 Tinder 已製定的產品計劃來改善用戶趨勢並顯著提高轉換率,從而使付費用戶數量同比 9% 的降幅略微收窄至 8% 或 7%。
If that happens, the math would show you that you get sequential Payer improvement in the third quarter at Tinder. And so that's what we're focused on. I think we have enough initiatives, enough product work going on to improve MAU, to drive up conversion such that we should see the sequential improvement in Payers by Q3.
如果這種情況發生,數學計算表明,Tinder第三季度的付費用戶數量將實現環比增長。因此,這就是我們目前關注的重點。我認為我們已經投入了足夠的舉措和產品研發工作來提升每月活躍用戶數(MAU),從而提高轉換率,最終在第三季度實現付費用戶數量的環比增長。
And the other thing I would point out, which I think is probably obvious, but just want to make sure, is that we've had a lot of noise in the Tinder Payer count, especially sequentially, as a result of all of the Payer actions we've taken on price changes, weekly subscriptions, et cetera. It's created a lot of noise for the last little while. We're largely getting that behind us now, right?
還有一點我想指出,雖然這可能顯而易見,但還是想確認一下,那就是由於我們對價格、週訂閱等一系列付費用戶操作的影響,Tinder付費用戶數量出現了很大的波動,尤其是連續幾期的數據波動。最近一段時間,這些波動造成了很大的影響。不過,我們現在基本上已經擺脫這種影響了,對吧?
The big changes that were made in the U.S., which were very significant, happened starting in the late first quarter of last year and really affected the second quarter. So the Payer count information should start to get a lot smoother, a lot easier to understand.
美國進行的重大變革(這些變革意義非凡)始於去年第一季末,並對第二季產生了顯著影響。因此,支付方數量資訊應該會變得更加順暢,更容易理解。
There will be less significant changes going forward. And so I think the metrics will be much more clear for people. So we're looking forward to that as well.
未來重大變化將會減少。因此,我認為各項指標對人們來說會更加清晰明了。我們也對此充滿期待。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Nathan Feather with Morgan Stanley.
下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的內森費瑟。
Nathaniel Jay Feather - Research Associate
Nathaniel Jay Feather - Research Associate
So when thinking about how to reignite user growth at Tinder, are there any case studies you draw on internally from the rest of your portfolio, especially with some brands now around for 3 decades? Are brands successfully evolved the product to appeal to the next generation? And how do you incorporate your learnings from that for where Tinder is at today?
所以,在思考如何重振 Tinder 的用戶成長時,你們公司內部是否有其他品牌(尤其是那些已經經營了 30 年的品牌)的案例研究可以藉鏡?這些品牌是否成功地對產品進行了迭代升級,以吸引下一代用戶?你們又是如何將這些經驗應用在 Tinder 目前的營運中呢?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Nathan, for that question. Sure. We have a lot of great examples across the portfolio of products that show true evolution. We've consistently seen that true product innovation can lead to material impacts on the user experience. We know that this can appeal to new demographics and expand the total industry. Our portfolio of brands, which have existed for more than 10-plus years, is a major benefit.
謝謝Nathan的提問。當然。我們產品組合中有很多優秀的案例,展現了真正的演進。我們始終看到,真正的產品創新能夠對使用者體驗產生實質的影響。我們知道,這可以吸引新的用戶群體,並推動整個產業的成長。我們旗下擁有許多歷史超過十年的品牌,這是一項巨大的優勢。
Years ago, OkCupid introduced the freemium model, which gained traction with late millennials who have not yet embraced the hard paywall business like Match.com.
多年前,OkCupid 推出了免費增值模式,這種模式受到了千禧世代後期用戶的歡迎,他們還沒有接受像 Match.com 那樣的硬性付費模式。
Or Hinge. When Hinge launched, it was based on connecting friends of friends for dating. But eventually, Hinge's growth stalled.
或像Hinge。 Hinge剛推出時,是基於朋友的朋友之間進行約會配對。但最終,Hinge的成長停滯了。
So they did a full product tear down, which was a really big and bold tough decision and redesigned Hinge from the ground up to focus on creating great dates in an app that's designed to be deleted. And users around the world are now flocking to Hinge.
所以他們對產品進行了徹底的拆解,這是一個非常大膽且艱難的決定,並從頭開始重新設計了Hinge,專注於在一個旨在被刪除的應用程式中創造美好的約會體驗。現在,世界各地的使用者都湧向了Hinge。
And if you look at Tinder, it was a massive innovation for the whole category. Tinder took the mobile phone and created an unprecedented experience that everyone loved. We talk about the Swipe, but the double opt-in was also a category changer for women who are suddenly in much more control of the attention that they receive.
如果你看看 Tinder,它對整個產業來說都是一個巨大的創新。 Tinder 利用手機創造了前所未有的體驗,深受用戶喜愛。我們常說它的滑動功能,但雙重確認機制也改變了整個產業格局,讓女性突然對自己獲得的關注度有了更大的掌控權。
So we know what works, but also know what doesn't work. We're listening to our young daters today and working to address their needs. What we've learned from all of these lessons across the portfolio and the learnings that we have from our users is that product changes that we need to make need to be big and bold to drive real change.
所以我們知道哪些方法有效,也知道哪些無效。我們傾聽年輕約會者的心聲,並努力滿足他們的需求。我們從所有產品組合的經驗教訓以及用戶回饋中了解到,我們需要進行的產品變革必須大膽而有力,才能帶來真正的改變。
We can't make small little changes to product and expect a massive impact. We're really lucky because we have people across the entire company that have launched products, love building them and are super motivated to capture the opportunity ahead. So we're going full steam ahead on our strategy, and we're confident that it's going to work.
我們不能指望對產品進行微小的改動就能產生巨大的影響。我們非常幸運,因為公司裡有很多員工都參與過產品發布,他們熱愛產品開發,並且充滿熱情地想要抓住未來的機會。所以我們正全力推進我們的策略,我們堅信它會成功。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Ken Gawrelski with Wells Fargo.
下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Ken Gawrelski。
Kenneth James Gawrelski - Equity Analyst
Kenneth James Gawrelski - Equity Analyst
You maintained the margin guidance for the full year, despite revenue expected to come in toward the lower end of previous expectations. It would seem from the outside that you should take the opportunity to invest more in marketing and get Tinder back -- Tinder net Payer growth in 3Q. What are we missing here? Why not be more aggressive here at this point?
儘管預計營收將接近先前預期的下限,但您仍維持了全年利潤率預期。從表面上看,您應該藉此機會加大行銷投入,重振 Tinder 的業績—Tinder 第三季淨付費用戶成長。我們究竟忽略了什麼?為什麼此時不採取更積極的策略?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Great question, Ken. Like we said earlier, it's really the product experience that needs to resonate, first and foremost. While marketing is a component of top of funnel growth, it needs to be combined with evolving product experience that resonates with users.
肯,問得好。就像我們之前說的,最重要的是產品體驗要能引起共鳴。雖然行銷是漏斗頂端成長的一部分,但它需要與不斷改進、能引起用戶共鳴的產品體驗結合。
The answer to your question is that we really don't see a compelling reason to increase marketing to achieve Payer growth. It really needs to come from product innovation. Our marketing today is much more about improving the Tinder brand narrative and making sure that Tinder is top of mind for daters.
您的問題的答案是,我們目前確實看不到透過增加行銷投入來促進付費用戶成長的充分理由。成長真正需要來自產品創新。我們目前的行銷重點更在於提升 Tinder 的品牌形象,確保 Tinder 在約會用戶心中佔據首要位置。
While we do expect this to have some positive impact on users, particularly women and Gen Z, it's not a lever we can pull to drive short-term Payer growth. And remember, Tinder's marketing spend is more about brand marketing and not direct response. So it isn't about spending more just to simply hit a quarterly Payer number. Thanks for the question.
我們預期這會對用戶,尤其是女性和Z世代用戶產生一些正面影響,但這並非我們能夠用來推動短期付費用戶成長的手段。請記住,Tinder的行銷支出更多用於品牌行銷,而不是直接行銷。因此,我們不會僅為了達到季度付費用戶目標而增加支出。感謝您的提問。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.
下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的傑森·赫爾夫斯坦。
Jason Stuart Helfstein - MD & Senior Internet Analyst
Jason Stuart Helfstein - MD & Senior Internet Analyst
Maybe I'll ask, and some of this you did allude to, but maybe elaborate. So what's changed specifically since February at Tinder, which is driving the low to mid-teens -- or low to mid-teen revenue -- or the low to mid-single-digit revenue growth versus the prior 6% to 8% as subs are still expected to turn positive in the third quarter?
也許我會問,你之前也提到過一些,但或許可以詳細說。自二月以來,Tinder究竟發生了哪些具體變化,導致其營收成長率從先前的6%到8%降至個位數低段,或說低段到中段?儘管預計第三季用戶數量仍將轉正。
Just elaborate. I mean, obviously, you talked about some of the kind of safety things you've done to the platform, but just elaborate a little bit more.
請詳細說明一下。我的意思是,您顯然談到了您為平台採取的一些安全措施,但請再詳細說明。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Why don't I take a shot at that, Jason? So a couple of things have changed. I mean, one, our year-over-year Payer growth expectations have come down a little bit, right? We had the negative 9% in the first quarter, and we're predicting something similar. We'd like to see obviously improvement in that metric.
當然。傑森,不如我來試試?情況有幾點變化。首先,我們對支付方同比增長的預期有所下調,對吧?第一季我們預測為負9%,而我們預期第二季的情況也差不多。我們當然希望看到這個指標有所改善。
As I mentioned to Ben, we're confident that all the product initiatives and things we have going on will lead to that in the third quarter. So that's what we really need to see. And I would point out sort of two specific things that have really changed since we did our last earnings call.
正如我跟本所提到的,我們相信所有產品計劃和正在進行的項目都將在第三季帶來預期成果。所以,這正是我們真正需要看到的。我還想指出自上次財報電話會議以來發生的兩個具體變化。
The first thing, and we talked a little bit about this in the letter and the remarks, the first thing is that we've seen increasing ALC weakness in this economic environment at Tinder. And so that's putting pressure on revenue because the purchase volume that a user is making is lower than it was previously.
首先,我們在信中和發言中也略有提及,在當前的經濟環境下,Tinder 的用戶平均消費額 (ALC) 持續走弱。這給收入帶來了壓力,因為用戶的購買量低於以往。
So we have initiatives in place to try to resolve that, but that's a critical driver of revenue, and that's putting more pressure on revenue than what we expected 3 months ago.
因此,我們已經採取了一些措施來嘗試解決這個問題,但這卻是收入的關鍵驅動因素,而且這給收入帶來的壓力比我們三個月前預期的要大。
And then because we have declining MAU, and I talked about how we need to drive conversion, we need initiatives to really drive the revenue growth. And so we have those going in a number of different ways across the world, but those have been delivering a little bit less than what we were expecting when we last provided the outlook in February.
由於每月活躍用戶數 (MAU) 下降,而且我也提到我們需要提高轉換率,所以我們需要採取一些措施來真正推動收入成長。為此,我們在全球範圍內採取了多種不同的措施,但這些措施的效果略低於我們在二月份發布業績展望時的預期。
So we need those initiatives to work a little bit harder. And we'd like to see obviously improvement in MAU as well. That would help offset some of the pressures we've seen.
所以我們需要這些舉措再加把勁。當然,我們也希望看到每月活躍用戶數有所提升。這將有助於緩解我們目前面臨的一些壓力。
So those are the things that have really moved the ALC degradation, a little bit more severe headwind there, and the fact that some of our monetization initiatives have been under delivering a bit versus what we'd like to see.
所以,正是這些因素真正導致了 ALC 性能下降,帶來了更嚴峻的阻力,而且我們的一些獲利舉措的效果也未達到預期。
But as I said to Ben, if we can get modest improvement in year-over-year Payer growth, that will still lead to the sequential Payer growth in Q3. And so sequential Payer growth in and of itself doesn't lead to year-over-year revenue growth.
但正如我跟本說的那樣,如果我們能夠實現同比支付方成長的小幅提升,這仍然會帶動第三季支付方環比成長。因此,支付方環比成長本身並不會帶來年比營收成長。
We need to see year-over-year Payer growth and year-over-year revenue per Payer growth combined. That's what leads to year-over-year revenue growth. And so that's what we need to make sure is working the way we wanted to.
我們需要看到支付方數量同比增長和每位支付方收入同比增長的綜合增長。這才能帶來收入的年增。因此,我們需要確保這一切按預期進行。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Chris Kuntarich with UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·昆塔里奇。
Christopher Louis Kuntarich - Analyst
Christopher Louis Kuntarich - Analyst
Great. Maybe one around your product efforts. Last year was more focused on pricing, and now that focus seems to be shifting towards product tweaks that should be driving more conversion events.
太好了。或許可以圍繞你們的產品策略展開討論。去年你們的重點更多放在定價上,而現在似乎正在轉向產品微調,以期提升轉換率。
Can you just talk to us about the visibility you have into those monetizations from last year versus the conversion-focused product tweaks ahead of you.
您能否跟我們談談您對去年獲利情況的了解程度,以及您即將進行的以轉換率為重點的產品調整情況?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
I'll take that one. Last year, we implemented a number of monetization initiatives, which we know how to do really well, and we have a great team behind it. That drove short-term revenue growth at Tinder.
我接受這個答案。去年,我們實施了一系列獲利模式,我們在這方面非常擅長,背後也有一支優秀的團隊。這些舉措推動了 Tinder 的短期營收成長。
But to really achieve long-term growth at Tinder, we need to reimagine the product to better satisfy women and Gen Z. This is a much more significant undertaking for sustained long-term growth and less certain than implementing monetization optimizations and initiatives.
但要真正實現 Tinder 的長期成長,我們需要重新構想產品,以更好地滿足女性和 Z 世代的需求。這比實施獲利模式優化和相關措施更具挑戰性,也更不確定,更難以實現可持續的長期成長。
We are confident that we have the right team in place, and who are focused on this, and a series of planned initiatives that we will deliver to improve the product experience, we feel really strong about. This will drive user growth, Payer growth and revenue growth over time.
我們相信我們擁有合適的團隊,他們專注於此,並且我們制定了一系列旨在提升產品體驗的計劃,我們對此充滿信心。這些計劃將隨著時間的推移推動用戶成長、付費用戶成長和收入成長。
So to be clear, what we're talking about is not really a series of conversion tweaks, but a longer-term strategic undertaking. Thanks for that question, Chris.
所以說清楚點,我們討論的並非一系列轉換率調整,而是一項長期的策略性舉措。謝謝你的提問,克里斯。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Dan Salmon with New Street Research.
下一個問題來自新街研究公司的丹‧薩爾蒙。
Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst
Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst
Okay. Great. I'd like to talk AI a little bit and just first to ask about any of the early learnings you've seen from the tests of the AI photo selector on Tinder. And I think the wording in the letter was about launching it more widely in the summer. Just curious if you had a little bit more details on the time line, if that's first half of the year or later on in the summer months.
好的,太好了。我想稍微聊聊人工智慧,首先想問您在Tinder上測試人工智慧照片選擇器時,有哪些初步的經驗教訓。我記得信裡提到會在夏天更廣泛地推出這項功能。我想了解具體的時間表,例如是上半年還是夏季晚些時候?
And then maybe just more broadly here, your view around AI development around the company BK mentioned. So Hyperconnect has been helping a lot of businesses. And I know AI is a specialty there. I'm sure Will Wu has got a lot of attention, a lot of his time focused on this. But just more broadly, how you're thinking about the road map for AI-based products across your suite of apps.
然後,或許可以更廣泛地談談您對BK提到的公司在人工智慧發展方面的看法。 Hyperconnect一直在幫助許多企業。我知道人工智慧是他們的專長。我相信Will Wu在這方面投入了大量精力,也備受關注。但更廣泛地來說,您是如何考慮貴公司應用套件中基於人工智慧的產品的路線圖的?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks for that question. I absolutely love talking about AI and photo selector, and we'll work closely with our Hyperconnect team in conjunction with our Tinder team to create this great feature that we think is really scalable.
感謝您的提問。我非常樂意探討人工智慧和照片選擇器,我們將與 Hyperconnect 團隊以及 Tinder 團隊緊密合作,共同打造這項我們認為極具可擴展性的出色功能。
And to really go back to that dater experience, when a dater makes a decision to download Tinder or one of our other apps, they're really putting themselves out there. And the first step that we ask daters to do is create a profile.
回到約會體驗本身,當用戶決定下載 Tinder 或我們其他的應用程式時,他們實際上是在將自己放在聚光燈下。而我們要求用戶的第一步就是建立個人資料。
That immediately can be a barrier to entry. Some of our users can kind of put their hands up in the air and say, "Okay, I'll do that later." But we now can help a person create a profile using AI and overcome that barrier. We're testing it right now, and we're launching this summer.
這可能立刻成為一大障礙。我們的一些用戶可能會舉手示意說:「好吧,我以後再做。」但現在我們可以利用人工智慧來幫助用戶創建個人資料,從而克服這一障礙。我們目前正在進行測試,並將於今年夏天正式上線。
Now I've tried it myself, and I personally have over 10,000 photos on my phone, and I wouldn't even know where to start if I were building my own dating profile. The photo selector magically chooses 10 photos for me, goes through all 10,000 photos in less than a minute, and then actually ended up showing parts of my personality that I wouldn't have really thought to showcase.
現在我自己也試過了,我手機裡有超過1萬張照片,如果讓我自己建造約會資料,我都不知道該從何下手。照片選擇器神奇地幫我選出了10張照片,不到一分鐘就瀏覽完了所有1萬張照片,而且最終展現的竟然是我意想不到的個性特質。
Based on the 10 photos that they picked, my profile would show that I went to a Taylor Swift concert, love to cook, and I love my dog. If I was doing this on my own, I'd probably just stick my corporate headshot, which is an okay photo, but it really doesn't tell much about me.
根據他們挑選的10張照片,我的個人資料會顯示我去過泰勒絲的演唱會,喜歡烹飪,而且很愛我的狗。如果是我自己做,我可能只會放一張公司證件照,那張照片還不錯,但真的無法展現我的個性。
If we can help people create better profiles, we believe that this is going to get to better matches and have better conversations, which lead to better outcomes.
如果我們能夠幫助人們創建更好的個人資料,我們相信這將帶來更好的匹配和更好的對話,從而帶來更好的結果。
This is just one example of the power of AI, and we plan to expand on this throughout the entire dating journey. Thanks for that question.
這只是人工智慧強大功能的一個例子,我們計劃在整個約會過程中不斷拓展這項技術。謝謝你的提問。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc.
下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Justin Patterson。
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Great. I just wanted to ask about Hinge. You had outlined the path to $1 billion in the letter, so appreciate that. I wanted to actually dive in the margins around that. Just as we see Hinge scale moving towards that $1 billion revenue target, how do you think about margin potential there?
好的。我只是想問關於Hinge的問題。您在信中概述了公司實現10億美元營收的路徑,非常感謝。我想深入探討圍繞這個目標的利潤空間。隨著Hinge的規模不斷擴大,朝著10億美元的營收目標邁進,您認為利潤空間潛力如何?
Are you going to get closer to Tinder over time? And then just maybe perhaps an update on where Hinge's margins are today. I know in the past, you'd signaled that those were approaching the corporate average. So curious if that is still the case.
你們會隨著時間的推移逐漸縮小與 Tinder 的差距嗎?另外,能否更新一下 Hinge 目前的利潤率?我知道你們之前曾表示 Hinge 的利潤率已經接近公司平均水平,所以很好奇現在情況是否仍然如此。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Thanks, Justin. Why don't I take that? So Hinge margins are expected to be in the high 20s percent range for the year. So short of the corporate number, and they're about stable with where they were last year.
謝謝,賈斯汀。我為什麼不接受呢? Hinge今年的利潤率預計在20%以上。雖然低於公司整體預期,但與去年基本持平。
And I would point out really a couple of things going on that are affecting the Hinge margins. The first thing is we're making a significant investment in marketing really across all of the markets that Hinge is focused on. So there are 17 markets, we're not marketing in every single one. But there's a significant effort going on, on the marketing side to build brand awareness, especially in these newer European countries.
我想指出兩點,它們確實影響了Hinge的利潤率。首先,我們正在對Hinge重點關注的所有市場進行大量的行銷投入。目前我們涵蓋17個市場,並非每個市場都進行行銷活動。但我們在行銷方面投入了大量精力來提升品牌知名度,尤其是在這些新興的歐洲國家。
And the revenue generation lags that. So it's an investment, and the revenue will start to help generate operating leverage for the business over time. We're generating more revenue from Europe this year than we did last year, and that will continue to grow. So that's one thing that's going to lead to improved margins at Hinge over time.
而營收成長卻落後於此。所以這是一項投資,隨著時間的推移,營收將開始幫助公司提升營運槓桿。我們今年在歐洲的營收比去年有所成長,而且這一數字還會持續成長。因此,這將是Hinge利潤率長期提升的關鍵因素之一。
The second thing is we're making a big investment in people there. We continue to expand headcount, particularly in product development, to continue to build out a better and better product experience. And so that investment is happening upfront, but those investments should lead to revenue generation, which also should lead to operating leverage over time.
第二點是,我們正在大力投資人才。我們持續擴充員工隊伍,尤其是在產品研發方面,以持續打造更優質的產品體驗。雖然這項投資是前期投入,但最終應該能夠轉化為收入,並隨著時間的推移提升營運效率。
And so I'm confident that as Hinge scales, the investments that we're making in marketing, the investments in people will pay off, and the margins will start to approach company levels. I think we have a good line of sight to get there.
因此,我相信隨著Hinge規模的擴大,我們在行銷和人才方面的投入將會獲得回報,利潤率也將逐漸接近公司平均水準。我認為我們很有希望實現這一目標。
Where exactly Hinge's margins land is really going to depend on how fast and how big that business scales to. So the more scale it achieves, the more I have confidence that margins will continue to improve.
Hinge的利潤率最終會達到什麼水平,這很大程度取決於其業務擴張的速度和規模。因此,規模越大,我就越有信心其利潤率會持續提高。
I think there's a path to get to company level. I think there's a path that could they be -- that they could be higher, but we'll have to see how that plays out and at what rate that, that plays out.
我認為他們有晉升到公司層級的途徑。我認為他們有潛力達到更高的職位,但我們必須看看事情會如何發展,以及發展的速度如何。
I would tell you that Hinge margins, Hinge is investing more in marketing dollars than Tinder does, and that's because Tinder has such a high level of brand awareness in all the markets where it operates. It was a big viral sensation when it burst onto the scene. It hasn't had to spend the marketing dollars that others who came after it, including Hinge, have had to do.
我會告訴你,Hinge的利潤率很高,Hinge在行銷上的投入比Tinder更多,這是因為Tinder在其經營的所有市場都擁有極高的品牌知名度。它一出現就迅速走紅,成為網路爆款。因此,它無需像後來者(包括Hinge)那樣投入巨額行銷費用。
So I think Hinge is always going to have margins that are below Tinder's level. For that reason, we are spending a little bit more marketing at Tinder. And so the gap is closing a little bit as Hinge improves its margin. But I do believe that, that's the dynamic we have, that Tinder is the higher-margin business, but -- that Tinder is a higher margin business, but that Hinge will be somewhere around company margins.
所以我認為Hinge的利潤率總是會低於Tinder。也因為如此,我們在Tinder的行銷上投入了更多資金。隨著Hinge利潤率的提升,兩者的差距正逐漸縮小。但我相信,這就是目前的市場動態:Tinder的利潤率更高,而Hinge的利潤率則會與公司平均值相近。
And that all assumes no change in app store fees, which, of course, could be a big margin driver as well. So we'll see how that all plays out. But those are the dynamics that I see as Hinge continues to grow and mature.
以上所有假設都基於應用程式商店費用不變的前提,當然,應用商店費用也可能成為利潤率的重要驅動因素。所以,我們拭目以待。但這就是我觀察到的Hinge在持續發展和成熟過程中將面臨的動態。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的科里·卡彭特。
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Gary, could you expand on how you're planning to maintain your 36% or better margin target this year, despite the softer revenue outlook? And more broadly, are there any incremental areas you've identified to reduce costs?
Gary,儘管今年的營收前景疲軟,您能否詳細說明您計劃如何維持36%或更高的利潤率目標?更廣泛地說,您是否已經確定了任何可以進一步降低成本的領域?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Happy to take that. So first of all, I would say, early in the year, we provided an outlook of 6% to 9% total company year-over-year revenue growth. And we were prepared to deliver 36% margins, even at the low end of that.
當然可以。我很樂意接受這個建議。首先,我想說的是,年初的時候,我們預測公司全年營收年增6%到9%。即使以這個預期的下限計算,我們也能保證36%的利潤率。
So what happened in terms of the performance thus far this year, we still have a plan to get to 36% margins, even if we're toward the lower end of our previously stated total company revenue range.
所以就今年迄今為止的業績而言,我們仍然有計劃實現 36% 的利潤率,即使我們接近之前公佈的公司總收入範圍的下限。
Now obviously, we need to prepare for contingencies, and I'm not expecting this to happen. But if there were further deterioration to maintain that margin level, we would have to take some additional actions.
顯然,我們需要做好應對突發情況的準備,我預期這種情況不會發生。但如果為了維持利潤率而導致情況進一步惡化,我們將不得不採取一些額外的措施。
And so to your question, the first place we would look are things that don't impact revenue significantly. So corporate overhead, as an example, we would look to try to adjust areas that won't impact revenue generation. I don't think there's massive opportunity in those kinds of areas because we've been judicious and we've been fiscally responsible for a while. But that's a place that we could definitely look.
所以,回到你的問題,我們首先會關注那些對收入影響不大的因素。例如,公司管理費用,我們會嘗試調整那些不會影響收入的領域。我認為這類領域並沒有太大的調整空間,因為我們一直都很謹慎行事,財務管理也很負責。但這確實是我們可以考慮的方向。
After that, you start to get into areas that have more effect on revenue. So marketing would be one. Obviously, we have a very large marketing budget, over $500 million for the year. We try to be very judicious with marketing across the businesses. We monitor for a return on that investment, of course.
之後,我們會開始關注那些對收入影響更大的領域,例如行銷。顯然,我們的行銷預算非常龐大,每年超過5億美元。我們力求在各個業務部門的行銷中做到精打細算,當然,我們也會密切關注投資報酬率。
But the good news is, we don't lock in to a lot of marketing commitments. And to the extent we have to make adjustments there, we can and we can be very nimble. But again, there could be knock-on effects on revenue generation if we adjust marketing. I think we're pretty well optimized on the marketing side. So that -- but that would be another place to look. It's a big expense line for us.
但好消息是,我們並沒有簽訂很多行銷合約。即使需要調整,我們也能靈活應對。不過,調整行銷策略可能會對收入產生連鎖反應。我認為我們在行銷方面已經做得相當優化了。所以,這方面——但又是另一個需要關注的領域。行銷是我們一大筆開銷。
And then as we talked about a lot on the last earnings call and people are aware, we've got a number of innovation bets that are going on right now, that are critical to driving future growth. Those tend to be very margin dilutive in the early years because we're making investments in those businesses and they're pre-revenue.
正如我們在上次財報電話會議上多次提到的,大家也都知道,我們目前正在進行多項創新投資,這些投資對推動未來的成長至關重要。這些投資在初期往往會大幅稀釋利潤率,因為我們對這些業務進行投資時,它們尚未產生收入。
So in the event that we needed to find other places to look at, we would look at all those bets even more carefully. We are consistently reevaluating them. But that would be perhaps a luxury that we would not have as much of. Again, there would be knock-on effects on revenue in the future years, on growth in the future years if we curtailed some of those, but we'd have to look at that.
所以,如果我們需要尋找其他投資方向,我們會更仔細地審視所有這些投資。我們一直在持續地重新評估它們。但這或許是我們無法輕易做到的。當然,如果我們削減其中一些投資,會對未來幾年的收入和成長產生連鎖反應,但我們必須考慮這一點。
So those are the trade-offs that you have to make. And obviously, they get tougher and tougher if things were to deteriorate. So we're -- the job one is really to generate improved trends, improved revenue growth and avoid the need to take any further cost actions.
所以,這就是你必須權衡取捨的地方。顯然,如果情況惡化,這些取捨會越來越艱難。因此,我們的首要任務是創造更好的發展趨勢,提高收入成長,並避免採取任何進一步的成本控制措施。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citi.
下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ygal Arounian。
Ygal Arounian - Director of Internet Equity Research
Ygal Arounian - Director of Internet Equity Research
I want to follow up on the product side and particularly around women and Gen Z. For women, you called out better product recommendations, better outcomes there. And you're calling out here and talking on the call a lot about being bolder on the product side.
我想就產品方面繼續探討,特別是針對女性和Z世代使用者。您提到,對於女性用戶,需要更好的產品推薦,才能獲得更好的效果。而且您在電話會議上也多次強調,產品方面需要更大膽創新。
So can you just help us understand what that means on the bolder side? What are the product expectations around the women and Gen Z and how we should think about that?
那麼,您能否幫我們理解一下,從更大膽的角度來看,這代表什麼?女性和Z世代對產品的期望是什麼?我們該如何看待這些問題?
And then on the safety side, with losing MAUs, as you did that and kind of cleaned up some of that, I understand the impacts on the MAU loss. How should we think about, not the comps year-over-year, but how you expect that to drive improvement over time and how we should see that?
在安全性方面,考慮到每月活躍用戶數 (MAU) 的下降,正如您所做的那樣,我理解這對 MAU 下降的影響。我們應該如何看待這個問題,而不是僅僅關注同比數據,而是您預期這將如何推動長期改進,以及我們應該如何看待這種改進?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Great question. Gen Z and women, and women's experience, in particular, is our top priority. They are literally the most critical demographic for all dating apps. We know that women need to feel empowered and respected when they're on our apps. We have a series of initiatives to improve outcomes for women to make sure they're getting great matches.
問得好。 Z世代和女性,尤其是女性的體驗,是我們工作的重中之重。她們是所有約會應用程式中最關鍵的使用者群體。我們深知,女性在使用我們的應用時需要感受到賦能和尊重。我們推出了一系列舉措,旨在改善女性的體驗,確保她們能找到理想的配對。
Now on the trust and safety side, we have a very aggressive approach to removing bad actors, especially when we get reports from users. But recently, as we mentioned in the letter and in my opening remarks, we changed Tinder's community guidelines to remove people from Tinder who weren't there to date. Whether they're trying to grow their social media following or not very active, they had negative impacts on user perception of the Tinder product.
在信任和安全方面,我們採取了非常積極的措施來清除不良用戶,尤其是在收到用戶舉報後。但正如我們在信中和我的開場白中提到的,我們最近修改了 Tinder 的社群準則,將那些並非以約會為目的的用戶從 Tinder 平台移除。無論他們是為了增加社群媒體粉絲還是不活躍,他們都對用戶對 Tinder 產品的認知產生了負面影響。
So we made this change. And as Gary said, we think we lost about 2 million MAU, but it was the right call for Tinder because it's more important that we're delivering great matches and authentic users and also getting them out to meet in real life. These trade-offs are important, and the team has continued to evaluate and make hard decisions if it yields a healthier ecosystem.
所以我們做出了這項改變。正如 Gary 所說,我們認為我們因此損失了大約 200 萬月活躍用戶,但這對於 Tinder 來說是正確的決定,因為更重要的是,我們要提供高品質的匹配對象和真實的用戶,並鼓勵他們走出家門,在現實生活中見面。這些權衡取捨至關重要,團隊一直在持續評估,並根據實際情況做出艱難的決定,以期建立一個更健康的生態系統。
I'm going to give you an example. Tinder is going to start requiring face photos. We believe that will be great for the ecosystem because it will increase the authenticity of people's profiles. But we also think that it's very likely to impact MAU, as we weed out some people who are really not there to date or it actually creates extra time to get comfortable with this change.
我舉個例子。 Tinder即將開始要求用戶上傳頭像照片。我們相信這對整個生態系統來說是件好事,因為它能提高使用者個人資料的真實性。但我們也認為這很可能會影響每月活躍用戶數(MAU),因為我們會篩選掉一些並非真心想約會的用戶,或者用戶需要更多時間來適應這項變化。
However, as I talked about earlier, AI photo selector will help make selecting photos easier, and we believe this will minimize the impact on MAU. This is something that we'll test and monitor, but we obviously think this is the right call for the user experience and the wider ecosystem. Thanks for that question.
不過,正如我之前提到的,AI照片選擇器將使照片選擇更加便捷,我們相信這將最大限度地減少對每月活躍用戶數的影響。我們會對此進行測試和監控,但我們顯然認為這對使用者體驗和整個生態系統來說都是正確的選擇。感謝您的提問。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Jian Li with Evercore ISI.
下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jian Li。
Jian Li - Analyst
Jian Li - Analyst
A couple. First, if you can talk about the macro assumptions that came to this guide. Are you assuming that what you're seeing today in macro persist? And any improvement in Payer growth has purely driven off, say, pricing optimization on product development?
有兩個問題。首先,能否談談本指南所依據的宏觀假設?您是否假設目前宏觀情勢會持續下去?支付方成長的任何改善是否完全是由產品開發中的定價優化等因素所推動的?
And also one on E&E. This interesting call-out on Archer, if you can double-click on -- is the growth mostly coming from user and conversion? Or any particular price action you've taken? And what -- how should we think about growth driver for this product or for Emerging in general the next year, just given your comments in the letter of Emerging starting to offset Evergreen potentially next year?
還有一篇關於E&E的文章。關於Archer的這篇評論很有意思,如果您可以雙擊查看——增長主要來自用戶和轉換率嗎?還是你們採取了什麼特別的價格策略?鑑於您在信中提到Emerging明年可能會開始抵消Evergreen的成長,我們應該如何看待明年該產品或整個Emerging的成長驅動因素?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
So let me jump in and take some of those. I mean, first of all, at Archer, I would just point out, it's a pre-revenue business. So really, what's happening is that we're seeing strong user growth. We haven't yet gotten to the point where we're monetizing that business.
讓我來談談其中的一些問題。首先,我想指出的是,Archer 目前還處於獲利階段。所以,我們現在的情況是用戶成長強勁,但還沒有實現獲利。
I think that can come in the relative short term because the key thing to enable us to monetize is -- it is to grow users sufficiently if there's liquidity in the market. We're getting to that point, where we have enough users, daters on that app, and so we can start to roll out some initial monetization features. So that is part of the strategy.
我認為短期內就能實現,因為實現獲利的關鍵在於──在市場流動性充足的情況下,用戶數量必須足夠成長。我們正朝著這個目標邁進,我們的應用程式上已經擁有了足夠多的用戶,也就是約會用戶,所以我們可以開始推出一些初步的獲利功能。這是我們戰略的一部分。
And as you asked about, I would think about the Emerging brands as a series of businesses, a series of bricks that are kind of stacked on top of each other. So we've got a number of demographic apps in that portfolio, and we're generating more and more revenue because we're stacking more and more bricks of demographically focused apps.
如你所問,我會把新興品牌看作一系列業務,就像一系列磚塊層層堆疊起來一樣。所以我們的產品組合包含許多針對特定族群的應用,而且由於我們不斷堆疊更多針對特定族群的應用,我們的收入也不斷成長。
So we have one focused on the [Asian community], we have one focus on the Hispanic community, one focused on the Black community, one focused on the gay male community. And all of those are generating revenue, and that's a growing pool of demographically tailored apps generating revenue. And obviously, as we get Archer to the monetization stage, that will be a bigger piece of the equation.
所以我們分別針對亞裔族群、拉丁裔族群、非裔族群和男同性戀族群開發了應用。所有這些應用都在產生收入,而且這些針對特定人口的應用數量還在不斷增長,它們正在創造收益。顯然,隨著Archer進入商業化階段,這部分收入將會佔到更大的比重。
And so we've got moderating declines going on at the Evergreen brands because we're managing those businesses to a sort of managed decline or a reasonable level of decline. And we're able to generate enough revenue in the Emerging brands now to basically offset the declines that we see consistently in the Evergreen brands. So that's what's happening in the E&E brands as a whole.
因此,我們看到常青品牌的下滑幅度有所放緩,因為我們正在對這些業務進行管理,使其下滑幅度控制在合理範圍內。而新興品牌目前能夠創造足夠的收入,基本上可以抵銷常青品牌持續下滑的影響。這就是新興品牌整體的現況。
And what we're trying to do is reduce redundancies there, use a common tech platform and be as efficient as possible and drive as strong margins as we can in that business. We're taking out a significant amount of cost, we've estimated $60 million.
我們正在努力減少冗餘,使用通用技術平台,盡可能提高效率,並在該業務領域實現盡可能高的利潤率。我們正在大幅削減成本,預計可節省 6,000 萬美元。
And so we'll have a business that should start to grow again modestly if that all comes to fruition at margins that will be quite attractive from the corporate perspective. That's the goal in the E&E businesses.
因此,如果這一切能夠實現,並且利潤率對公司而言相當可觀,那麼我們的業務應該會開始溫和地再次成長。這就是電子電氣業務的目標。
I think you also asked the question about macro trends, and what I would say is we're not assuming a significant change in macro, which is really having the effect on Tinder ALC. So that's where it's relevant.
我認為你也問到了宏觀趨勢的問題,我的回答是,我們不認為宏觀經濟會發生重大變化,而宏觀經濟正是對 Tinder ALC 產生影響的關鍵因素。所以,這就是它的意義所在。
In the Tinder ALC, what we're trying to do there is find other ways to offset the macro trends by adding offerings, by adjusting offerings, by offering things at different price points, all of those things together to offset the headwinds we're seeing. But for the rest of the year, we're not assuming significant changes in the macro environment.
在 Tinder ALC,我們正在嘗試透過增加產品和服務、調整產品和服務、提供不同價位的產品等方式,尋找其他方法來抵消宏觀趨勢的影響,以應對我們目前面臨的不利因素。但就今年剩餘時間而言,我們預期宏觀環境不會有重大變化。
But we've done this once before. If you remember way back when, we adjusted the way we were merchandising a la carte offerings at Tinder because we started to see some pushback on them. We were offering more expensive bundles in a weaker economic environment, and so we adjusted our merchandising.
但我們之前也做過類似的事情。如果你還記得的話,很久以前,我們調整了Tinder單項服務的銷售方式,因為我們開始發現一些用戶對此不滿。當時經濟環境不太景氣,我們卻提供價格較高的套餐,所以我們調整了銷售策略。
And we're looking at similar kinds of changes again to adapt to a tougher macro environment, adjusting the pricing, adjusting what we offer and how we offer it, so we think we can improve the demand and cater better to the current economic climate, especially among those younger users at Tinder. So hopefully, that responds to your questions.
為了適應更嚴峻的宏觀環境,我們正在考慮做出類似的調整,包括調整定價、調整服務內容和服務方式,以期提升市場需求,更好地適應當前的經濟形勢,尤其是在Tinder的年輕用戶群中。希望這些解答能對您有幫助。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from James Heaney with Jefferies.
下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的詹姆斯希尼。
James Edward Heaney - VP & Equity Analyst
James Edward Heaney - VP & Equity Analyst
In the letter, you reiterated your confidence in sequential Payer growth in Q3 and slowing user declines in the back half of the year. So I'm just curious what this would imply for Q4 Payers and things that you can talk about Q1.
您在信中重申了對第三季度支付方用戶數量環比增長以及下半年用戶數量下滑速度放緩的信心。所以我很好奇這對於第四季度的支付方用戶數量意味著什麼,以及您對第一季的情況有何看法。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Thanks, James. Happy to take the question. And so we're expecting -- as I talked about as it related to Q3 sequential Payer adds, we're expecting improved year-over-year Payer growth as the year goes on.
當然。謝謝,詹姆斯。我很樂意回答這個問題。正如我之前提到的,就第三季新增支付方而言,我們預計隨著時間的推移,支付方的年增率將會提高。
We haven't seen that yet, but it's critical that we generate that through their product initiatives to drive conversion and/or MAU improvement. And so we are -- we need to be on the path to see improving year-over-year Payer growth as the quarters go on.
我們尚未看到這種情況,但至關重要的是,我們必須透過產品舉措來推動轉換率和/或每月活躍用戶數 (MAU) 的成長。因此,我們正在努力——我們需要走上正軌,隨著季度的推進,看到付費用戶數量逐年增長。
I still think that we have a path to get to year-over-year Payer growth in Q4, but obviously, the weaker trends at the beginning of the year make that path a bit tougher. And so we have more wood to chop to get there by Q4, and we need initiatives at Tinder to drive us to that outcome.
我仍然認為我們有辦法在第四季度實現付費用戶同比增長,但顯然,年初疲軟的趨勢讓這條路變得更加艱難。因此,為了在第四季實現目標,我們還有很多工作要做,Tinder 也需要採取一些措施來推動我們達成目標。
I do want to say that I'm sure you understand this, but there seems to be some confusion between users on the one hand and Payers on the other hand, so I want to explain how we use those terms. We talk about new users at Tinder, which really means registrations, new sign-ups. Sometimes, downloads are used as a substitute for that, and reactivations. That's new users at Tinder.
我想說的是,我相信您能理解,但似乎大家對「用戶」和「付費者」這兩個概念有些混淆,所以我想解釋一下我們如何使用這些術語。在 Tinder,我們所說的「新用戶」其實指的是註冊用戶,也就是新註冊用戶。有時,下載使用者和重新啟動使用者也會被用作「新使用者」的替代說法。以上就是 Tinder 上的「新用戶」。
And we also talk about MAU, which we referred to here. Collectively, all of that is users or user growth at Tinder, and that is critical to be able to drive improved trends. And so we're very focused on initiatives to do that.
我們也會談到每月活躍用戶數(MAU),就像我們剛才提到的那樣。總而言之,所有這些指標都代表著Tinder的用戶數量或用戶成長,而這對於推動用戶成長趨勢至關重要。因此,我們非常重視相關的措施。
Improvement in users, in new users or users collectively at Tinder is what will enable us to drive year-over-year Payer growth. Because, obviously, Payers come as users improve. There's a lag, but people sign up. They're on the platform, and we ultimately convert them into Payers. And so those things are related.
用戶數量的成長,無論是新用戶或所有用戶,都將推動 Tinder 付費用戶數量的逐年成長。因為很明顯,付費用戶會隨著用戶數量的成長而增加。雖然有一定的滯後性,但用戶註冊後,他們會使用平台,最終我們會將他們轉化為付費用戶。所以,這兩者是相互關聯的。
So the fact that we believe we can get stronger user growth in the back half of the year through all of our product initiatives, app, ecosystem cleanup, et cetera, should generate improved Payer growth as well. Maybe we won't get quite to it at the very end of this year. It may go into next year, but we're right now positioned to see improved Payer growth in Q4 and then going into Q1 as well.
因此,我們相信,透過我們所有的產品措施、應用程式優化、生態系統清理等等,下半年用戶成長將更加強勁,這也應該會帶動付費用戶成長的提升。或許我們無法在今年年底前完全實現這一目標,甚至可能要等到明年,但我們目前已做好準備,在第四季度以及明年第一季看到付費用戶成長的改善。
And so that bodes well for the longer-term trends in the business because as we improve the user growth and as we have initiatives driving conversion, we should start to see improved Payer growth and, therefore, improved revenue growth as well.
因此,這對業務的長期發展趨勢來說是個好兆頭,因為隨著用戶成長的改善和轉換率提升,我們應該會看到付費用戶成長的改善,從而帶來收入成長的改善。
That's the goal. That's what we're trying to achieve through the 4-prong strategy that Tinder is executing on. So hopefully, that addresses your question, James. I think we have time maybe for one more question.
這就是我們的目標。這也是我們透過 Tinder 正在實施的四管齊下策略努力實現的目標。希望這能解答你的疑問,James。我想我們或許還有時間再回答一個問題。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Curtis Nagle with Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的柯蒂斯·納格爾。
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Terrific. Maybe just one real quick one and then a follow-up. Gary, you just mentioned initial headcount coming in to Hinge. Any other parts of the business where we'll see growth?
太好了。或許可以先快速問一個問題,然後再跟進。 Gary,你剛才提到了Hinge的初始員工人數。公司其他業務領域還有哪些會成長的嗎?
And then just one on the ALC products, right? Any risk, I guess, of cannibalizing subscription revenue. It sounds like you're going to take some features that you have in premium. It could have been to ALC offerings at more affordable price points.
然後,你們只打算在ALC產品上推出一項新功能,對吧?我猜想,這樣做可能會蠶食訂閱收入。聽起來你們打算把一些高級版的功能放到ALC產品裡,並以更實惠的價格出售。
And then just what is the assumption in terms of contribution from a la carte in terms of revenue growth in the back half of the year?
那麼,下半年單點菜對營收成長的貢獻究竟有多大預期呢?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
So just -- we don't have a lot of time, but I'll try to answer that relatively quickly. On the Hinge headcount, I did mention we are making significant investments there. It's primarily in product development.
所以,時間不多,但我會盡量快速回答。關於Hinge的員工人數,我之前提到我們正在進行大量投資,主要用於產品研發。
We do have a significant investment planned at the company overall on the headcount side, but I do think that will moderate as the year goes on. If you look at headcount costs, they're up a lot in the first quarter year-over-year. But there are some SBC effects and other things that I think will normalize. And so I think that headwind will abate as the year goes on.
公司整體上確實計劃在人員配置方面進行大量投資,但我認為隨著時間的推移,這一趨勢會逐漸緩和。如果看一下人員成本,第一季同比確實大幅上漲。但其中一些因素,例如員工福利調整(SBC)的影響以及其他一些因素,我認為會逐漸恢復正常。因此,我認為這一不利因素會隨著時間的推移而減弱。
Hinge is the primary place where we're investing in headcount, and I talked a little bit about the margin consequence there. There is some additional investment at Tinder and in some of the central innovation AI efforts. Those are the primary areas where we're investing in headcount. We're being really judicious elsewhere across the company. So that's kind of one piece of it.
Hinge是我們目前投入人力成本的主要領域,我之前也簡單談到了這方面的利潤率影響。此外,我們也在Tinder以及一些核心創新人工智慧專案上進行了額外的投資。這些是我們目前投入人力成本的主要領域。在公司的其他部門,我們都採取了非常謹慎的態度。以上就是其中一部分內容。
On the a la carte cannibalization, that is a factor that we grapple with. There is the potential risk for a la carte to cannibalize subscription. And so we need to test and manage every new feature that we roll out on the a la carte side, which we do, to make sure we understand the cannibalization.
關於單點付費模式可能對訂閱模式造成的蠶食,這是我們一直在努力應對的因素。單點付費模式確實存在蠶食訂閱模式的潛在風險。因此,我們需要對單點付費模式下推出的每一項新功能進行測試和管理,我們也確實這樣做了,以確保我們了解這種蠶食效應。
If it's revenue accretive, we're still comfortable doing that, but you might see knock-on effects on subscribers, but overall better generation on the a la carte side. So that's something that we manage that balance. It's a critical skill that we have, and we're going to continue to do so.
如果能增加收入,我們仍然樂意這樣做,但可能會對訂閱用戶產生連鎖反應,不過整體而言,單點付費業務的收益會更好。所以我們需要權衡這兩者之間的平衡。這是我們的一項關鍵技能,我們會繼續保持下去。
We have a lot of a la carte products and adjustments in the pipeline for Tinder in the back half of the year. So I'm expecting a la carte revenue growth in the back half of the year or improvement from where we are now at least.
今年下半年,我們為 Tinder 準備了許多單項服務產品和調整方案。所以我預計下半年單項服務收入會有所成長,至少會比現在有所改善。
And I do think that the percentage of Tinder's revenue that we generate from a la carte should start to increase as well as we're growing a la carte. I don't think it will be dramatic. It's around 20%, probably tick up to 21%, 22%.
而我認為,隨著單點付費服務的成長,Tinder來自單點付費服務的收入比例也應該開始上升。但我認為增幅不會很大,大概在20%左右,可能會小幅上升到21%或22%。
So that's what we expect to see in the back half of the year as we roll out more of these a la carte focused initiatives at Tinder. So hopefully that addresses your question. I think we're out of time, but I'll turn the call back over to BK.
所以,這就是我們預計在今年下半年Tinder推出更多這類按需付費服務時會看到的。希望這能解答你的疑問。我想時間到了,我把電話轉回給BK。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Gary, and thanks, everyone, for joining today's call. Gary and I appreciate your questions, and thank you so much for your interest.
謝謝加里,也謝謝各位參加今天的電話會議。加里和我都很感謝大家的提問,也非常感謝大家的關注。
We're all really excited about the business that we're building and the opportunities ahead. We look forward to continuing the conversation, and have a great day. Thank you, all.
我們都對正在打造的業務和未來的機會感到無比興奮。期待繼續交流,祝大家今天過得愉快。謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議已結束。感謝您參加今天的報告。您可以斷開連線了。