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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.
歡迎參加 Match Group 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在記錄此事件。
I would like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Tanny Shelburne。請繼續。
Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR
Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.
謝謝接線員,大家早安。今天的電話會議將由執行長 Bernard Kim 主持;以及總裁兼財務長 Gary Swidler。他們會做一些簡短的評論,然後我們將開放提問。
Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC.
在開始之前,我需要提醒大家,在這次電話會議中,我們可能會討論我們的前景和未來的表現。這些前瞻性陳述之前可能會出現「我們期望」、「我們相信」、「我們預期」或類似陳述等字眼。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,我們的實際結果可能與今天表達的觀點有重大差異。其中一些風險已在我們的收益發布和向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中列出。
During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the shareholder letter on our IR website. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results.
在本次電話會議中,我們將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的 IR 網站上的股東信中提供了與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。這些非公認會計準則衡量標準無意取代我們的公認會計準則結果。
With that, I'd like to turn over the call to BK.
說到這裡,我想把電話轉給 BK。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. I know much of our discussion today will focus on near-term trends and challenges. Both Gary and I will address those headwinds, and we will discuss it in Q&A. And while some of the current trends are challenging, it does not dissuade us from what we believe is long-term opportunity.
大家早安,感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我知道我們今天的大部分討論將集中在近期趨勢和挑戰。我和加里都會解決這些不利因素,我們將在問答中討論。儘管當前的一些趨勢具有挑戰性,但這並沒有阻止我們相信長期機會。
So I want to start with the big picture and that opportunity. As we look at the state of the dating industry today, one thing remains very clear. For those daters looking to go on a date and meet someone in real life, our apps empower people to make meaningful connections like no other platform.
所以我想從大局和機會開始。當我們審視當今約會產業的狀況時,有一件事仍然非常清楚。對於那些想要約會並在現實生活中結識某人的約會者來說,我們的應用程式使人們能夠像其他平台一樣建立有意義的聯繫。
In today's dating scene, many people still hold onto that nostalgic, romantic idea of meeting someone organically. However, the reality is that chances for a spontaneous meet-cute are becoming increasingly rare. Even in settings like bars, where social interactions are expected, single daters looking to meet someone are actually on their phones using apps to navigate their social and romantic lives.
在當今的約會場景中,許多人仍然保留著那種懷舊、浪漫的想法,即有機地認識某人。然而,現實是,自發性的邂逅的機會變得越來越少。即使在酒吧這樣需要社交互動的環境中,想要結識某人的單身約會者實際上也會在手機上使用應用程式來導航他們的社交和浪漫生活。
Our apps are strategically designed to bridge this gap, leveraging technology to serve as a springboard to get you on a great date that may not have happened otherwise. That's why dating apps have become the primary way people meet today, particularly in more developed markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.
我們的應用程式經過策略性設計,旨在彌合這一差距,利用技術作為跳板,讓您獲得原本可能不會發生的美好約會。這就是為什麼約會應用程式已成為當今人們見面的主要方式,特別是在美國和西歐等較發達的市場。
Surprisingly, there are still so many people who don't use our apps and many more who aren't actively dating, creating a massive opportunity and a significant runway for growth, as we aim to redefine the meet-cute and create safer places for all singles to find a meaningful connection.
令人驚訝的是,仍然有很多人不使用我們的應用程序,還有更多的人不積極約會,這創造了巨大的機會和重要的增長跑道,因為我們的目標是重新定義可愛的約會並為約會者創造更安全的場所所有單身人士都可以找到有意義的聯繫。
Over the last few years, we've made meaningful progress at Match Group. Our brands have executed against well-defined product and marketing initiatives. Tinder continues to be an iconic brand worldwide and the entry point to dating for each new generation.
在過去的幾年裡,我們 Match Group 取得了有意義的進展。我們的品牌執行了明確的產品和行銷計劃。 Tinder 仍然是全球的標誌性品牌,也是每一代約會的切入點。
Hinge has been a standout, demonstrating tremendous growth based on their brand promise for intention daters to get out on great dates. We are more confident than ever that the business is well on its way to generating $1 billion in revenue. Hinge is resonating well in markets that we've entered and being very thoughtful about the user experience to help ensure that we're building a great community and truly delivering on our mission.
Hinge 一直表現出色,基於其品牌承諾,讓意向約會者獲得美好約會,展示了巨大的成長。我們比以往任何時候都更有信心,相信該業務正在穩步實現 10 億美元的收入。 Hinge 在我們進入的市場中引起了良好的反響,並且非常注重用戶體驗,以幫助確保我們正在建立一個偉大的社區並真正實現我們的使命。
We've launched several new apps tailored at select demographics, where we see real potential, and these platforms within our emerging brands portfolio have performed very well. In particular, we want to call out the progress on Archer, which is focused on gay men and demonstrating really strong momentum.
我們推出了幾款針對特定人群量身定制的新應用程序,我們看到了這些人群的真正潛力,並且我們新興品牌組合中的這些平台表現非常出色。我們特別想強調《Archer》的進展,它專注於男同性戀,並表現出非常強勁的勢頭。
The app recently hit more than 700,000 downloads since it launched last year. Engagement is up even more, growing triple digits, which indicates that we have a strong ecosystem and users who are loving it.
自去年推出以來,該應用程式最近的下載量已超過 70 萬次。參與度進一步上升,成長了三位數,這表明我們擁有強大的生態系統和熱愛它的用戶。
I also want to point out that we've achieved this growth without significantly increasing our investment in marketing since the beginning of the year. The Archer team has revved up and continues to innovate the user experience to make it the most dynamic and engaging app for this community.
我還想指出,自今年年初以來,我們在沒有大幅增加行銷投資的情況下就實現了這一增長。 Archer 團隊已經加快步伐,並繼續創新用戶體驗,使其成為社區最具活力和吸引力的應用程式。
Across the portfolio, we've continued to deploy resources more efficiently. The Hyperconnect team is working on projects with most of our other businesses and has fantastic talent that we believe will continue to add value to our various brands.
在整個產品組合中,我們繼續更有效地部署資源。 Hyperconnect 團隊正在與我們大多數其他業務合作開展項目,並且擁有出色的人才,我們相信他們將繼續為我們的各個品牌增加價值。
Now we get a lot of questions about monthly active users, and I want to remind everyone that our businesses approach is very different from other social platforms. Our goal is to see real single users find a date and then get off of our apps. We focus on attracting singles who want to make real connections and satisfying our daters who are earnest in their intentions by delivering great experiences.
現在我們收到了很多關於每月活躍用戶的問題,我想提醒大家,我們的業務方式與其他社交平台有很大不同。我們的目標是看到真正的單身用戶找到約會對象,然後退出我們的應用程式。我們專注於吸引那些想要建立真正聯繫的單身人士,並透過提供優質的體驗來滿足那些真誠的約會者。
Tinder's international scale and reach has never been matched by any other dating app, and it's critical that we keep the ecosystem vibrant. For example, Tinder took decisive action by changing its community guidelines and moderation practices mid last year, which better enabled the removal of users who are not on the app for its intended purposes.
Tinder 的國際規模和影響力是任何其他約會應用程式都無法比擬的,因此我們保持生態系統的活力至關重要。例如,Tinder 在去年年中採取了果斷行動,改變了其社群準則和審核實踐,從而更好地刪除了未出於其預期目的使用該應用程式的用戶。
While the improvements to the ecosystem and benefits to the brand are undeniable, these actions did contribute to some of Tinder's MAU declines over the past 9 months. We believe that actions like these are in the best interest of Tinder's long-term success, so we are willing to accept fewer MAU in the short term to create a safer ecosystem and better outcomes for our daters.
雖然生態系統的改善和品牌的好處是不可否認的,但這些行動確實導致了 Tinder 在過去 9 個月的每月活躍用戶數下降。我們相信,此類行動最符合 Tinder 的長期成功,因此我們願意在短期內接受更少的月活躍用戶數,以便為我們的約會者創造一個更安全的生態系統和更好的結果。
Diving a little deeper into Tinder, we have heard loud and clear that some users, especially the Gen Z cohort, are looking for more from their dating apps. We have been in this business a long time, and we have consistently adapted our offerings to best serve the needs of different generations. And we understand and recognize that expectations of apps are changing.
深入研究 Tinder,我們清楚地聽到一些用戶,尤其是 Z 世代,正在從他們的約會應用程式中尋找更多東西。我們從事這個行業已經很長時間了,我們不斷調整我們的產品,以最好地滿足不同世代的需求。我們理解並認識到人們對應用程式的期望正在改變。
Tinder is working tirelessly to execute against their strategy, and I'm incredibly confident in the team's ability to satisfy these evolving expectations that users have. By the end of the year, we expect to have a significantly improved product.
Tinder 正在不知疲倦地執行他們的策略,我對團隊滿足用戶不斷變化的期望的能力充滿信心。到今年年底,我們預計產品將顯著改進。
Similarly, pressures on discretionary consumer spending, especially among Tinder's younger user base, have negatively impacted Tinder's a la carte revenue. The team is doubling down on its efforts to improve the efficacy of its current ALC features and introduce new offerings at affordable price points. We expect to see improvements in ALC trends by the back half of the year.
同樣,可自由支配的消費者支出壓力,尤其是 Tinder 的年輕用戶群,對 Tinder 的單點收入產生了負面影響。該團隊正在加倍努力提高當前 ALC 功能的功效,並以實惠的價格推出新產品。我們預計今年下半年 ALC 趨勢將會有所改善。
We know we have work to do to satisfy every new generation of daters. The Tinder team is working to improve the dating journey at every point of the experience. Through innovation, especially with AI, we believe we can improve the quality of profiles, matching outcomes, safety features and the post-match experience to make the entire Tinder platform more modern and deliver on their brand promise.
我們知道,要滿足每一代新一代約會者的需求,我們還有很多工作要做。 Tinder 團隊正在努力改善約會旅程的每個體驗點。透過創新,尤其是人工智慧,我們相信我們可以提高個人資料的品質、匹配結果、安全功能和賽後體驗,使整個 Tinder 平台更加現代化,並兌現其品牌承諾。
I've asked our Chief Technology Officer and his central innovation team to work even more closely with Tinder's product team to expedite all these efforts, which are underway. And given Tinder's vast scale and knowledge about relationships and dating, there is no dating app better positioned to take advantage of these advances in technology.
我已要求我們的技術長及其核心創新團隊與 Tinder 產品團隊更加密切合作,以加速所有正在進行的工作。鑑於 Tinder 的龐大規模以及在人際關係和約會方面的知識,沒有任何約會應用程式能夠更好地利用這些技術進步。
Tinder has become an industry-defining, highly profitable business over the past decade. We have been innovating to solve some of the user pain points. As a result, we will have a healthier, more satisfying and, ultimately, more valuable experience for daters to enjoy. And I am confident that Tinder's momentum will come back.
在過去的十年裡,Tinder 已經成為行業定義的、高利潤的業務。我們一直在創新來解決一些用戶痛點。因此,我們將為約會者提供更健康、更令人滿意、更有價值的體驗。我相信 Tinder 的勢頭將會恢復。
We believe we have real market opportunity and the right teams and strategies in place to get to that next level of growth, and we are determined to deliver that for all of our stakeholders.
我們相信,我們擁有真正的市場機會,並擁有合適的團隊和策略來實現下一階段的成長,並且我們決心為所有利害關係人實現這一目標。
We continue to see significant growth runway at Hinge and our emerging brands portfolio. We're executing on our turnaround plan for Tinder, and our central innovation teams are bringing renewed vigor to product innovation. We are excited to continue this work, as giving people new exciting ways to connect is what motivates us every day.
我們繼續看到 Hinge 和我們的新興品牌組合的顯著成長。我們正在執行 Tinder 的周轉計劃,我們的中央創新團隊正在為產品創新註入新的活力。我們很高興繼續這項工作,因為為人們提供新的令人興奮的聯繫方式是我們每天的動力。
And with that, let me turn it over to Gary.
接下來,讓我把它交給蓋瑞。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Thanks, BK, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. Our business demonstrated strong financial performance to start the year with FX-neutral results coming in ahead of our expectations.
謝謝,BK,大家好。感謝您今天早上加入我們。我們的業務在年初表現出強勁的財務業績,匯率中性的業績超出了我們的預期。
Match Group's total revenue was $860 million, up 9% year-over-year and 12% FX neutral in Q1. Revenue per payer grew 16%, while payers declined 6% year-over-year. We experienced $2 million more in FX headwinds than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call. We generated $267 million of free cash flow in the quarter.
Match Group 第一季的總營收為 8.6 億美元,年增 9%,匯率中性因素為 12%。每個付款人的收入成長了 16%,而付款人的收入則年減了 6%。我們經歷的外匯逆風比我們上次財報電話會議時的預期多了 200 萬美元。本季我們產生了 2.67 億美元的自由現金流。
Tinder likewise delivered 9% year-over-year direct revenue growth, 12% FX neutral. Hinge grew direct revenue 50% year-over-year, ahead of our expectations for the second consecutive quarter.
Tinder 同樣實現了 9% 的年比直接收入成長,其中匯率中立成長 12%。 Hinge 直接營收年增 50%,連續第二季超出我們的預期。
MG Asia's and Evergreen & Emerging Brands direct revenue declined 6% and 4%, respectively, year-over-year, although MG Asia was up 7% FX neutral. Azar grew direct revenue 20% year-over-year FX neutral.
MG Asia 和 Evergreen & Emerging Brands 的直接收入比去年同期分別下降 6% 和 4%,儘管 MG Asia 的匯率中性增長了 7%。受匯率影響,Azar 的直接收入年增 20%。
The emerging brands collectively grew direct revenue 23% year-over-year. We welcomed some new demographically focused apps to the E&E portfolio. Archer continued to show strong user growth, as BK mentioned, and the app experience continued to evolve to better satisfy the target audience.
新興品牌的直接收入整體較去年同期成長 23%。我們歡迎一些新的以人口統計為重點的應用程式加入 E&E 產品組合。正如 BK 所提到的,Archer 繼續表現出強勁的用戶成長,並且應用程式體驗不斷發展,以更好地滿足目標受眾。
Q1 Tinder direct revenue was $481 million, driven by RPP that increased 20% year-over-year to $16.52, due to the effects of the U.S. price optimizations and weekly packages we rolled out starting in late Q1 2023. There was better stability at the top of the funnel at Tinder in the first quarter, with new users down only 4% year-over-year on a like-for-like basis, factoring in that we exited 2 countries.
第一季 Tinder 直接收入為 4.81 億美元,主要受到 RPP 的推動,由於美國價格優化和我們從 2023 年第一季末開始推出的每週套餐的影響,RPP 同比增長 20% 至 16.52 美元。季度Tinder 處於漏斗頂端,考慮到我們退出了2 個國家,新用戶年比僅下降4%。
While Tinder also experienced a decline in monthly active users in the quarter, the decisions we made to change Tinder's policies and moderation practices starting last summer to enable easier elimination of users who are not on the app to really connect led to an approximately 2 million decline in Tinder MAU. This decline included bad actors and users who were some of the least engaged on the platform.
雖然Tinder 在本季度的每月活躍用戶數也有所下降,但我們從去年夏天開始決定改變Tinder 的政策和審核實踐,以便更容易消除未在應用程式上進行真正連接的用戶,這導致了大約200萬的下降在 Tinder MAU 中。這種下降包括不良行為者和在平台上參與度最低的用戶。
We will fight this comp all year, but we'll have it fully anniversaried by the end of 2024. We believe that these actions are beneficial to the overall ecosystem health, and we are already seeing signs of improvement in key engagement metrics that we track.
我們將全年與這一競爭作鬥爭,但到2024 年底我們將迎來它的周年紀念日。 我們相信這些行動有利於整個生態系統的健康,而且我們已經看到我們跟踪的關鍵參與度指標有所改善的跡象。
For example, Tinder's ratio of daily active users to monthly active users reached some of its highest levels, well north of 40% in Q1, an improvement of 14 basis points versus Q1 of last year. Although impactful to MAU, we believe this was the right decision for the ecosystem.
例如,Tinder 的每日活躍用戶與每月活躍用戶之比達到了歷史最高水平,第一季遠超 40%,比去年第一季提高了 14 個基點。儘管對每月活躍用戶數有影響,但我們相信這對生態系統來說是正確的決定。
Tinder's payers declined 9% year-over-year in Q1 to just under 10 million, and we're down 255,000 sequentially, just slightly worse than our expectations. While growth in subscription revenue at Tinder was strong at 17% year-over-year, primarily due to the increase in RPP, Tinder continued to experience pressure on a la carte revenue, which was down 13% year-over-year in the quarter.
第一季度,Tinder 的付費用戶數量年減 9%,至略低於 1,000 萬,我們較上季減少了 255,000 人,僅略低於我們的預期。雖然 Tinder 的訂閱收入同比強勁增長 17%(主要是由於 RPP 的增長),但 Tinder 的點菜收入繼續面臨壓力,本季同比下降 13% 。
We believe the decline in ALC revenue stems from user declines and lower average purchase volumes, in part due to weaker consumer discretionary spending among its younger user base, among other reasons. The weaker growth in ALC is a continuation of a trend that has been going on for a while now, but has been becoming more severe of late.
我們認為,ALC 收入的下降源於用戶減少和平均購買量下降,部分原因是年輕用戶群中的消費者可自由支配支出疲軟等。 ALC 成長疲軟是一種趨勢的延續,這種趨勢已經持續了一段時間,但最近變得更加嚴重。
Our Hinge brand continues to perform very well. Hinge direct revenue was $124 million in Q1. Hinge payers were up 31% year-over-year to 1.4 million, while RPP of nearly $29 was up 14% year-over-year. Hinge's downloads continued to be strong in both core English-speaking and Western European markets, growing approximately 20% year-over-year globally in Q1.
我們的 Hinge 品牌持續表現出色。 Hinge 第一季的直接收入為 1.24 億美元。 Hinge 付款人年增 31%,達到 140 萬,而 RPP 接近 29 美元,年增 14%。 Hinge 在核心英語市場和西歐市場的下載量持續強勁,第一季全球較去年同期成長約 20%。
We're confident that Hinge is in the very early stages of its monetization efforts, with payer penetration defined as payers to monthly active users just above half that at Tinder, providing ample room for expansion. The user growth trends, global expansion opportunities and monetization runway give us optimism around Hinge's long-term outlook. We believe Hinge is on track to become a $1 billion revenue business.
我們相信,Hinge 正處於其貨幣化努力的早期階段,付款人滲透率定義為每月活躍用戶的付款人略高於 Tinder 的一半,從而提供了充足的擴展空間。用戶成長趨勢、全球擴張機會和貨幣化跑道讓我們對 Hinge 的長期前景感到樂觀。我們相信 Hinge 有望成為營收 10 億美元的業務。
Match Group's Q1 AOI was $279 million, up 6% year-over-year for a margin of 33%. Operating income was $185 million in Q1, down 7% year-over-year for a margin of 21%. Q1 Match Group AOI and OI each benefited from the increase in revenue as a result of growth at Tinder and Hinge, partially offset by an expected nearly $30 million or 20% year-over-year increase in selling and marketing expenses and an increase in cost of revenue due to higher app store fees.
Match Group 第一季的 AOI 為 2.79 億美元,較去年同期成長 6%,利潤率為 33%。第一季營業收入為 1.85 億美元,年減 7%,利潤率為 21%。第一季 Match Group AOI 和 OI 均受益於 Tinder 和 Hinge 成長帶來的收入成長,但部分被預計近 3000 萬美元(即 20% 的同比增長)的銷售和營銷費用以及成本增加所抵消由於更高的應用程式商店費用而導致收入減少。
The increase in selling and marketing spend was primarily at Tinder, Hinge and certain emerging brands, offset by declines in marketing spend at multiple other brands. Operating income was further impacted by increased SBC expense due to increased hiring activity to support product development efforts, unusually high forfeitures in the prior year period and other factors.
銷售和行銷支出的增加主要來自 Tinder、Hinge 和某些新興品牌,但被其他多個品牌的行銷支出下降所抵消。由於支援產品開發工作的招募活動增加、去年期間異常高的沒收和其他因素,SBC 費用增加進一步影響了營業收入。
While SBC expense rose, the grant value of awards to employees was approximately flat year-over-year, as we focus on controlling the level of new equity awards to employees, which impacts future period SBC expense.
雖然 SBC 費用有所上升,但向員工授予的獎勵價值與去年同期基本持平,因為我們專注於控制向員工授予的新股權獎勵的水平,這會影響未來期間的 SBC 費用。
Additionally, OI was impacted by a 94% year-over-year increase in depreciation expense due to increases in internally developed software placed in service, including at Tinder and Hyperconnect.
此外,由於內部開發的軟體投入使用(包括 Tinder 和 Hyperconnect)的增加,折舊費用較去年同期成長 94%,影響了 OI。
We repurchased approximately $200 million of our shares in Q1 at an average price of approximately $35 per share on a trade day basis, reducing our share count by approximately 6 million. This represented a deployment of roughly 75% of our Q1 free cash flow, delivering on our commitment to deploy more than 50% of our free cash flow for share repurchases.
我們在第一季以交易日平均價格約每股 35 美元回購了約 2 億美元的股票,減少了約 600 萬股。這代表我們部署了第一季約 75% 的自由現金流,兌現了我們將 50% 以上的自由現金流用於股票回購的承諾。
With our net leverage below our target at 2.3x and $800 million remaining on our share buyback authorization, we expect to continue returning at least 75% of our free cash flow to shareholders for the remainder of the year.
由於我們的淨槓桿率低於 2.3 倍的目標,而且我們的股票回購授權還剩 8 億美元,因此我們預計在今年剩餘時間內繼續將至少 75% 的自由現金流返還給股東。
For Q2 '24, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $850 million to $860 million, up 2% to 4% year-over-year and 5% to 6% FX neutral. We expect direct revenue at Tinder to be $475 million to $480 million in Q2, flat to up 1% year-over-year, up 3% to 4% FX neutral.
對於 24 年第二季度,我們預計 Match Group 的總營收為 8.5 億至 8.6 億美元,年增 2% 至 4%,匯率中性成長 5% 至 6%。我們預計第二季 Tinder 的直接收入將為 4.75 億至 4.8 億美元,年持平至成長 1%,若匯率中立則成長 3% 至 4%。
The user growth and ALC revenue headwinds at Tinder, plus the effect of the anniversary of various monetization initiatives we implemented starting in late Q1 of last year, are impacting Tinder's direct revenue growth rate, which is below our target for the business.
Tinder 的用戶成長和 ALC 收入逆風,加上我們從去年第一季末開始實施的各種貨幣化措施週年紀念日的影響,正在影響 Tinder 的直接收入成長率,低於我們的業務目標。
The Tinder team is focused on implementing monetization initiatives to strengthen revenue growth. These initiatives include revisions to existing ALC features and introducing new offerings. We expect our product work to lead to significantly better year-over-year trends in ALC revenue in the back half of this year. These initiatives are in addition to the extensive work being done to improve the app experience and the health of the ecosystem.
Tinder 團隊專注於實施貨幣化計劃以加強收入成長。這些措施包括修改現有 ALC 功能和推出新產品。我們預計我們的產品工作將使今年下半年 ALC 收入的年比趨勢顯著改善。除了這些措施之外,我們還為改善應用程式體驗和生態系統的健康狀況進行了大量工作。
We expect Tinder payers to decline at similar rates year-over-year in Q2 as they did in Q1, leading to a modest improvement in sequential payer trends in Q2 compared to Q1. We continue to anticipate positive sequential payer additions at Tinder in Q3.
我們預計第二季 Tinder 付費用戶的年減率與第一季相似,從而導致第二季付費用戶趨勢較第一季略有改善。我們繼續預計第三季 Tinder 的付款人數將連續增加。
Across our other brands, we expect Q2 direct revenue of $360 million to $365 million, up 5% to 7% year-over-year, 8% to 10% FX neutral. Within our other brands, we expect Hinge to deliver $125 million to $130 million of direct revenue in Q2, year-over-year growth of 38% to 44%.
對於我們的其他品牌,我們預計第二季直接收入為 3.6 億至 3.65 億美元,年增 5% 至 7%,匯率中性成長 8% 至 10%。在我們的其他品牌中,我們預計 Hinge 在第二季將實現 1.25 億至 1.3 億美元的直接收入,年增 38% 至 44%。
We expect Match Group AOI of $300 million to $305 million in Q2, roughly flat year-over-year, and margin of 35% at the midpoints of the ranges. We expect overall Q2 marketing spend to be about $25 million higher than in the prior year quarter, largely due to increased spend at Hinge, Tinder and some E&E brands.
我們預計第二季 Match Group AOI 為 3 億至 3.05 億美元,與去年同期基本持平,利潤率為 35%,處於該範圍的中點。我們預計第二季整體行銷支出將比去年同期增加約 2,500 萬美元,這主要是由於 Hinge、Tinder 和一些 E&E 品牌的支出增加。
We opted into Apple's new app store policies in the EU on April 1, so we expect at least $5 million per quarter of IAP fee savings going forward, assuming no further changes in app store policies.
我們在 4 月 1 日在歐盟選擇了 Apple 新的應用程式商店政策,因此,假設應用程式商店政策沒有進一步變化,我們預計未來每季 IAP 費用至少可節省 500 萬美元。
We're complying with our settlement agreement with Google, which requires us to adopt Google Play billing, user choice billing and/or developer-only billing across our brands. This change is creating some modest conversion headwinds for us, but we're working to adjust to this new reality, and Google is making improvements on their end as well.
我們正在遵守與 Google 的和解協議,該協議要求我們在我們的品牌中採用 Google Play 結算方式、用戶選擇結算方式和/或僅限開發者結算方式。這一變化為我們帶來了一些適度的轉換阻力,但我們正在努力適應這個新的現實,谷歌也在改進。
Reflecting our Q2 expectations and the latest trends at Tinder, we currently expect low single-digit year-over-year direct revenue growth rates at Tinder for the remaining quarters of 2024, although they could be higher if some of the product initiatives deliver or ALC revenue or other trends improve beyond our current expectations.
根據我們對第二季度的預期和Tinder 的最新趨勢,我們目前預計2024 年剩餘季度Tinder 的直接收入同比增長率將僅為個位數,儘管如果某些產品計劃實現或ALC 實現,增長率可能會更高收入或其他趨勢的改善超出了我們當前的預期。
This updated rest-of-year outlook leads us to anticipate low to mid-single-digit year-over-year direct revenue growth for Tinder for full year 2024. Given this, for the full year, we expect total company revenue growth to be near the lower end of our previously stated 6% to 9% year-over-year total revenue growth target range, unless there is a material over-delivery of our expectations by our other brands, particularly Hinge.
根據更新的今年餘下的展望,我們預計 2024 年全年 Tinder 的直接收入將實現低至中個位數的同比直接收入增長。 % 至9% 的年比總收入成長目標範圍的下限,除非我們的其他品牌(尤其是Hinge)大幅超出了我們的預期。
For both Tinder and the whole company, we currently expect FX to be about a 1 point year-over-year headwind in the back half of the year.
對於 Tinder 和整個公司來說,我們目前預計下半年外匯市場將年減約 1 個百分點。
We remain focused on delivering AOI margin of at least 36% for Match Group in 2024. We are continuously evaluating the previously disclosed investments in marketing and product innovation at Tinder, Hinge and in new experiences and will adjust as appropriate.
我們仍然致力於在 2024 年為 Match Group 提供至少 36% 的 AOI 利潤率。
Our outlook is for Match Group to generate nearly $1.1 billion of free cash flow in 2024, and we expect to utilize at least 75% of our free cash flow for capital return for the remainder of the year. We believe that at our current stock price, our shares remain the best investment we can make with our capital.
我們預計 Match Group 將在 2024 年產生近 11 億美元的自由現金流,並預計在今年剩餘時間內將至少 75% 的自由現金流用於資本回報。我們相信,按照我們目前的股價,我們的股票仍然是我們可以用我們的資本進行的最佳投資。
With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
然後,我會要求接線員開通提問線路。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.
(操作員說明)今天的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的班傑明·布萊克(Benjamin Black)。
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Great. It'd be great to hear what's giving you confidence that Tinder net adds will return to sequential growth in the third quarter, despite the steady decline in payers we're seeing today. And is there something that you're seeing maybe as it pertains to conversion trends that you can point us to that is providing this optimism?
偉大的。很高興聽到是什麼讓您相信,儘管我們今天看到的付費用戶穩步下降,但 Tinder 淨添加量將在第三季度恢復環比增長。您是否看到了一些與轉換趨勢相關的東西,您可以向我們指出這些東西可以提供這種樂觀情緒?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Thanks, Ben, for the question. First of all, in terms of trends that we're seeing at Tinder, I just want to point out a few different things.
謝謝本,提出問題。首先,就我們在 Tinder 上看到的趨勢而言,我只想指出一些不同的事情。
So first of all, conversion has improved dramatically, and that's in part because we've lowered pricing -- sorry, we raised pricing -- sorry, we rolled out weekly subscription packages, which, as a result of that, are lower prices, and that has led to improved conversion, right?
首先,轉換率顯著提高,部分原因是我們降低了定價——抱歉,我們提高了定價——抱歉,我們推出了每週訂閱套餐,因此價格更低,這導致了轉換率的提高,對吧?
But those subscribers that are signing up for the weekly subscription packages are there for a shorter duration period, so they're in the payer count for less time. So that's one of the trends that's going on inside of the business.
但那些註冊每週訂閱套餐的訂閱者的持續時間較短,因此他們在付款人計數中的時間較短。這就是企業內部正在發生的趨勢之一。
We also have declining user base. We have declining MAU. And so we need conversion to work harder. We need to generate more payers on a smaller user base. So those are the trends that are happening.
我們的用戶群也在下降。我們的每月活躍用戶數正在下降。因此,我們需要轉變才能更加努力。我們需要在較小的用戶群上吸引更多的付費者。這些就是正在發生的趨勢。
If you look at the payers on a year-over-year basis, we talked about how payers declined 9% in the first quarter, and we expect payers to decline at a similar level in the second quarter. I think if you do the math, you'll see that we need the product initiatives that we have planned at Tinder to improve the user trends and to improve conversion sufficiently that the 9% year-over-year decline in payers improves a little bit to 8% or 7%.
如果你對比去年同期的情況來看付款人,我們談到了第一季的付款人數量下降了 9%,我們預計第二季的付款人數量也將下降到類似的水平。我想如果你算一下,你會發現我們需要在 Tinder 計劃的產品計劃來改善用戶趨勢並充分提高轉換率,從而使付費人數同比下降 9% 的情況有所改善至 8% 或 7%。
If that happens, the math would show you that you get sequential payer improvement in the third quarter at Tinder. And so that's what we're focused on. I think we have enough initiatives, enough product work going on to improve MAU, to drive up conversion such that we should see the sequential improvement in payers by Q3.
如果發生這種情況,數學會告訴你,Tinder 的付款人在第三季會連續改善。這就是我們關注的重點。我認為我們有足夠的措施、足夠的產品工作來提高每月活躍用戶數、提高轉換率,這樣我們應該會在第三季度看到付款人的連續改善。
And the other thing I would point out, which I think is probably obvious, but just want to make sure, is that we've had a lot of noise in the Tinder payer count, especially sequentially, as a result of all of the payer actions we've taken on price changes, weekly subscriptions, et cetera. It's created a lot of noise for the last little while. We're largely getting that behind us now, right?
我想指出的另一件事是,我認為這可能是顯而易見的,但只是想確定一下,我們在 Tinder 付款人數量中出現了很多噪音,尤其是按順序,因為所有付款人我們對價格變化、每週訂閱等採取的行動。過去一段時間它產生了很多噪音。我們現在基本上已經把它拋在腦後了,對吧?
The big changes that were made in the U.S., which were very significant, happened starting in the late first quarter of last year and really affected the second quarter. So the payer count information should start to get a lot smoother, a lot easier to understand.
美國發生的重大變化非常重大,發生在去年第一季末,並對第二季產生了真正的影響。因此,付款人計數資訊應該開始變得更加流暢、更容易理解。
There will be less significant changes going forward. And so I think the metrics will be much more clear for people. So we're looking forward to that as well.
未來將會有不太顯著的改變。所以我認為這些指標對人們來說會更加清晰。所以我們也對此充滿期待。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Nathan Feather with Morgan Stanley.
下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Nathan Feather。
Nathaniel Jay Feather - Research Associate
Nathaniel Jay Feather - Research Associate
So when thinking about how to reignite user growth at Tinder, are there any case studies you draw on internally from the rest of your portfolio, especially with some brands now around for 3 decades? Are brands successfully evolve the product to appeal to the next generation? And how do you incorporate your learnings from that for where Tinder is at today?
因此,在考慮如何重新點燃 Tinder 用戶成長時,您是否可以從您的其他產品組合中藉鏡內部案例研究,尤其是針對一些已經存在了 3 年的品牌?品牌是否成功地改進了產品以吸引下一代?您如何將從中學到的經驗運用到 Tinder 的今天?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Nathan, for that question. Sure. We have a lot of great examples across the portfolio of products that show true evolution. We've consistently seen that true product innovation can lead to material impacts on the user experience. We know that this can appeal to new demographics and expand the total industry. Our portfolio of brands, which have existed for more than 10-plus years, is a major benefit.
謝謝內森提出這個問題。當然。我們的產品組合中有很多很好的例子,展示了真正的演變。我們始終認為,真正的產品創新可以對使用者體驗產生重大影響。我們知道這可以吸引新的人口並擴大整個產業。我們的品牌組合已存在十多年,這是一個重大優勢。
Years ago, OkCupid introduced the freemium model, which gained traction with late millennials who have not yet embraced the hard paywall business, like Match.com or Hinge. When Hinge launched, it was based on connecting friends of friends for dating. But eventually, Hinge's growth stalled.
幾年前,OkCupid 推出了免費增值模式,該模式受到了尚未接受 Match.com 或 Hinge 等硬付費牆業務的千禧世代的青睞。當 Hinge 推出時,它的基礎是連接朋友的朋友進行約會。但最終,Hinge 的成長陷入停滯。
So they did a full product tear down, which was a really big and bold tough decision and redesigned Hinge from the ground up to focus on creating great dates in an app that's designed to be deleted. And users around the world are now flocking to Hinge.
因此,他們對產品進行了全面拆解,這是一個非常重大且大膽的艱難決定,並從頭開始重新設計了 Hinge,專注於在旨在刪除的應用程式中創建精彩的約會。現在世界各地的使用者都湧向 Hinge。
And if you look at Tinder, it was a massive innovation for the whole category. Tinder took the mobile phone and created an unprecedented experience that everyone loved. We talk about the Swipe, but the double opt-in was also a category changer for women who are suddenly in much more control of the attention that they receive.
如果你看看 Tinder,你會發現這對整個類別來說都是一個巨大的創新。 Tinder 借助手機創造了前所未有的人人喜愛的體驗。我們談論的是“滑動”,但雙重選擇加入對於女性來說也是一個類別改變,她們突然可以更好地控制自己受到的關注。
So we know what works, but also know what doesn't work. We're listening to our young daters today and working to address their needs. What we've learned from all of these lessons across the portfolio and the learnings that we have from our users is that product changes that we need to make need to be big and bold to drive real change.
所以我們知道什麼有效,但也知道什麼無效。今天,我們正在傾聽年輕約會者的聲音,並努力滿足他們的需求。我們從整個產品組合的所有這些經驗教訓以及我們從用戶那裡學到的經驗教訓是,我們需要進行的產品更改必須是大規模和大膽的,才能推動真正的改變。
We can't make small little changes to product and expect a massive impact. We're really lucky because we have people across the entire company that have launched products, love building them and are super motivated to capture the opportunity ahead. So we're going full steam ahead on our strategy, and we're confident that it's going to work.
我們不能對產品做出微小的改變,卻期望產生巨大的影響。我們真的很幸運,因為我們整個公司的員工都推出了產品,熱愛開發產品,並且非常積極地抓住未來的機會。因此,我們將全力推進我們的策略,並且我們相信它會發揮作用。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Ken Gawrelski with Wells Fargo.
下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Ken Gawrelski。
Kenneth James Gawrelski - Equity Analyst
Kenneth James Gawrelski - Equity Analyst
You maintained the margin guidance for the full year, despite revenue expected to come in toward the lower end of previous expectations. It would seem from the outside that you should take the opportunity to invest more in marketing and get Tinder back -- Tinder net payer growth in 3Q. What are we missing here? Why not be more aggressive here at this point?
儘管收入預計將接近先前預期的下限,但您仍維持全年利潤指引。從外部看來,你應該抓住機會在行銷方面投入更多資金,並讓 Tinder 回歸——第三季 Tinder 淨付費用戶成長。我們在這裡缺少什麼?為什麼此時不更加激進?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Great question, Ken. Like we said earlier, it's really the product experience that needs to resonate, first and foremost. While marketing is a component of top of funnel growth, it needs to be combined with evolving product experience that resonates with users.
好問題,肯。正如我們之前所說,首先也是最重要的是產品體驗需要引起共鳴。雖然行銷是漏斗頂部成長的一個組成部分,但它需要與不斷發展的、能引起用戶共鳴的產品體驗相結合。
The answer to your question is that we really don't see a compelling reason to increase marketing to achieve payer growth. It really needs to come from product innovation. Our marketing today is much more about improving the Tinder brand narrative and making sure that Tinder is top of mind for daters.
你的問題的答案是,我們確實沒有看到有令人信服的理由來增加行銷以實現付款人的成長。它確實需要來自產品創新。我們今天的行銷更多的是改善 Tinder 品牌形象,並確保 Tinder 成為約會者的首要考慮因素。
While we do expect this to have some positive impact on users, particularly women and Gen Z, it's not a lever we can pull to drive short-term payer growth. And remember, Tinder's marketing spend is more about brand marketing and not direct response. So it isn't about spending more just to simply hit a quarterly payer number. Thanks for the question.
雖然我們確實預期這會對使用者(尤其是女性和 Z 世代)產生一些正面影響,但這並不是我們可以用來推動短期付費用戶成長的槓桿。請記住,Tinder 的行銷支出更多的是品牌行銷,而不是直接回應。因此,這不僅僅是為了達到季度付款人數而增加支出。謝謝你的提問。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.
下一個問題來自傑森·赫夫斯坦和奧本海默。
Jason Stuart Helfstein - MD & Senior Internet Analyst
Jason Stuart Helfstein - MD & Senior Internet Analyst
Maybe I'll ask, and some of this you did allude to, but maybe elaborate. So what's changed specifically since February at Tinder, which is driving the low to mid-teens -- or low to mid-teen revenue -- or the low to mid-single-digit revenue growth versus the prior 6% to 8% as subs are still expected to turn positive in the third quarter?
也許我會問,你確實提到了其中一些,但也許會詳細說明。那麼,自2 月以來,Tinder 發生了哪些具體變化,推動了10 至10 歲以下(或10 歲以下)的收入增長,或者是10 歲以下的收入增長,而之前作為替代者的收入增長為6 % 至8%三季仍有望轉正?
Just elaborate. I mean, obviously, you talked about some of the kind of safety things you've done to the platform, but just elaborate a little bit more.
詳細說明一下。我的意思是,顯然,您談到了您對平台所做的一些安全措施,但只是詳細說明了一點。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Why don't I take a shot at that, Jason? So a couple of things have changed. I mean, one, our year-over-year payer growth expectations have come down a little bit, right? We had the negative 9% in the first quarter, and we're predicting something similar. We'd like to see obviously improvement in that metric.
當然。我為什麼不嘗試一下呢,傑森?因此,有幾件事發生了變化。我的意思是,第一,我們的付款人比去年同期成長預期有所下降,對嗎?我們第一季的成長率為 9%,我們預測也會出現類似情況。我們希望看到該指標明顯改善。
As I mentioned to Ben, we're confident that all the product initiatives and things we have going on will lead to that in the third quarter. So that's what we really need to see. And I would point out sort of two specific things that have really changed since we did our last earnings call.
正如我向本所提到的,我們有信心所有產品計劃和我們正在進行的事情將在第三季實現這一目標。這就是我們真正需要看到的。我想指出自從我們上次財報電話會議以來發生了真正變化的兩件具體事情。
The first thing, and we talked a little bit about this in the letter and the remarks, the first thing is that we've seen increasing ALC weakness in this economic environment at Tinder. And so that's putting pressure on revenue because the purchase volume that a user is making is lower than it was previously.
第一件事,我們在信中和評論中對此進行了一些討論,第一件事是,我們在 Tinder 的經濟環境中看到 ALC 的弱點日益加劇。這給收入帶來了壓力,因為用戶的購買量低於以前。
So we have initiatives in place to try to resolve that, but that's a critical driver of revenue, and that's putting more pressure on revenue than what we expected 3 months ago.
因此,我們採取了一些措施來嘗試解決這個問題,但這是收入的關鍵驅動因素,這給收入帶來的壓力比我們 3 個月前的預期更大。
And then because we have declining MAU, and I talked about how we need to drive conversion, we need initiatives to really drive the revenue growth. And so we have those going in a number of different ways across the world, but those have been delivering a little bit less than what we were expecting when we last provided the outlook in February.
然後,由於我們的每月活躍用戶數量不斷下降,我談到了我們需要如何推動轉化,因此我們需要採取措施來真正推動收入成長。因此,我們在世界各地以多種不同的方式進行這些活動,但這些活動的效果比我們上次在二月份提供前景時的預期要少一些。
So we need those initiatives to work a little bit harder. And we'd like to see obviously improvement in MAU as well. That would help offset some of the pressures we've seen.
因此,我們需要這些措施更加努力。我們也希望看到每月活躍用戶數有明顯改善。這將有助於抵消我們所看到的一些壓力。
So those are the things that have really moved the ALC degradation, a little bit more severe headwind there, and the fact that some of our monetization initiatives have been under delivering a bit versus what we'd like to see.
因此,這些因素確實導致了 ALC 的退化,那裡的阻力有點嚴重,而且我們的一些貨幣化計劃的交付效果與我們希望看到的效果有些差距。
But as I said to Ben, if we can get modest improvement in year-over-year payer growth, that will still lead to the sequential payer growth in Q3. And so sequential payer growth in and of itself doesn't lead to year-over-year revenue growth.
但正如我對本所說,如果我們能夠在同比付款人增長方面取得適度改善,那仍將導致第三季度付款人的環比增長。因此,付款人的連續成長本身並不會導致收入年增。
We need to see year-over-year payer growth and year-over-year revenue per payer growth combined. That's what leads to year-over-year revenue growth. And so that's what we need to make sure is working the way we wanted to.
我們需要看到付款人的年增長和每個付款人的收入同比增長的總和。這就是導致收入年增的原因。因此,這就是我們需要確保其按照我們想要的方式運作。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Chris Kuntarich with UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Chris Kuntarich。
Christopher Louis Kuntarich - Analyst
Christopher Louis Kuntarich - Analyst
Great. Maybe one around your product efforts. Last year was more focused on pricing, and now that focus seems to be shifting towards product tweaks that should be driving more conversion events.
偉大的。也許是圍繞著你的產品努力。去年更關注定價,現在焦點似乎轉向產品調整,這應該會推動更多的轉換事件。
Can you just talk to us about the visibility you have into those monetizations from last year versus the conversion-focused product tweaks ahead of you.
您能否與我們談談您對去年的貨幣化與您面前的以轉化為中心的產品調整的可見性。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
I'll take that one. Last year, we implemented a number of monetization initiatives, which we know how to do really well, and we have a great team behind it. That drove short-term revenue growth at Tinder.
我會接受那個。去年,我們實施了許多貨幣化舉措,我們知道如何做得很好,而且我們背後有一支優秀的團隊。這推動了 Tinder 的短期收入成長。
But to really achieve long-term growth at Tinder, we need to reimagine the product to better satisfy women and Gen Z. This is a much more significant undertaking for sustained long-term growth and less certain than implementing monetization, optimizations and initiatives.
但為了真正實現Tinder 的長期成長,我們需要重新設計產品,以更好地滿足女性和Z 世代的需求。 、優化和措施的確定性要低得多。
We are confident that we have the right team in place, and we're focused on this. And a series of planned initiatives that we will deliver to improve the product experience, we feel really strong about. This will drive user growth, payer growth and revenue growth over time.
我們相信我們擁有合適的團隊,並且我們專注於此。我們將實施一系列旨在改善產品體驗的計劃舉措,我們對此感到非常強烈。隨著時間的推移,這將推動用戶成長、付款人成長和收入成長。
So to be clear, what we're talking about is not really a series of conversion tweaks, but a longer-term strategic undertaking. Thanks for that question, Chris.
因此需要明確的是,我們所說的並不是一系列的轉換調整,而是一項長期的策略任務。謝謝你提出這個問題,克里斯。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Dan Salmon with New Street Research.
下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Dan Salmon。
Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst
Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst
Okay. Great. I'd like to talk AI a little bit and just first to ask about any of the early learnings you've seen from the tests of the AI photo selector on Tinder. And I think the wording in the letter was about launching it more widely in the summer. Just curious if you had a little bit more details on the time line, if that's first half of the year or later on in the summer months.
好的。偉大的。我想稍微談談人工智慧,首先想問您從 Tinder 上的人工智慧照片選擇器測試中看到的早期經驗。我認為信中的措辭是關於在夏天更廣泛地推出它。只是好奇你是否有更多關於時間線的細節,是今年上半年還是夏季晚些時候。
And then maybe just more broadly here, your view around AI development around the company BK mentioned. So Hyperconnect has been helping a lot of businesses. And I know AI is a specialty there. I'm sure Will Wu has got a lot of attention, a lot of his time focused on this. But just more broadly, how you're thinking about the road map for AI-based products across your suite of apps.
也許更廣泛地說,您對 BK 公司的人工智慧開發的看法。所以Hyperconnect已經幫助了許多企業。我知道人工智慧是那裡的專業。我確信吳威爾受到了很多關注,他的很多時間都集中在這上面。但更廣泛地說,您如何考慮整個應用程式套件中基於人工智慧的產品的路線圖。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks for that question. I absolutely love talking about AI and photo selector, and we'll work closely with our Hyperconnect team in conjunction with our Tinder team to create this great feature that we think is really scalable.
謝謝你提出這個問題。我非常喜歡談論 AI 和照片選擇器,我們將與 Hyperconnect 團隊以及 Tinder 團隊密切合作,創建這個我們認為真正可擴展的出色功能。
And to really go back to that dater experience, when a dater makes a decision to download Tinder or one of our other apps, they're really putting themselves out there. And the first step that we ask daters to do is create a profile.
真正回到約會者的體驗,當約會者決定下載 Tinder 或我們的其他應用程式之一時,他們實際上是在把自己放在那裡。我們要求約會者做的第一步是建立個人資料。
That immediately can be a barrier to entry. Some of our users can kind of put their hands up in the air and say, "Okay, I'll do that later." But we now can help a person create a profile using AI and overcome that barrier. We're testing it right now, and we're launching this summer.
這可能立即成為進入障礙。我們的一些用戶可以舉起手來說:“好吧,我稍後再做。”但我們現在可以幫助人們使用人工智慧建立個人資料並克服這一障礙。我們現在正在測試它,並將於今年夏天推出。
Now I've tried it myself, and I personally have over 10,000 photos on my phone, and I wouldn't even know where to start if I were building my own dating profile. The photo selector magically chooses 10 photos for me, goes through all 10,000 photos in less than a minute, and then actually ended up showing parts of my personality that I wouldn't have really thought to showcase.
現在我自己嘗試過,我個人的手機上有超過 10,000 張照片,如果我要建立自己的約會檔案,我甚至不知道從哪裡開始。照片選擇器神奇地為我選擇了 10 張照片,在不到一分鐘的時間內瀏覽了所有 10,000 張照片,然後實際上最終展示了我的個性中我本來不想展示的部分。
Based on the 10 photos that they picked, my profile would show that I went to a Taylor Swift concert, love to cook, and I love my dog. If I was doing this on my own, I'd probably just stick my corporate headshot, which is an okay photo, but it really doesn't tell much about me.
根據他們挑選的 10 張照片,我的個人資料顯示我參加了泰勒絲 (Taylor Swift) 的音樂會,喜歡做飯,而且我愛我的狗。如果我自己做這件事,我可能只會貼上我的公司頭像,這是一張不錯的照片,但它確實不能透露太多關於我的資訊。
If we can help people create better profiles, we believe that this is going to get to better matches and have better conversations, which lead to better outcomes.
如果我們能夠幫助人們創建更好的個人資料,我們相信這將帶來更好的匹配並進行更好的對話,從而帶來更好的結果。
This is just one example of the power of AI, and we plan to expand on this throughout the entire dating journey. Thanks for that question.
這只是人工智慧力量的一個例子,我們計劃在整個約會之旅中擴展這一點。謝謝你提出這個問題。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc.
下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Justin Patterson。
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Great. I just wanted to ask about Hinge. You had outlined the path to $1 billion in the letter, so appreciate that. I wanted to actually dive in the margins around that. Just as we see Hinge scale moving towards that $1 billion revenue target, how do you think about margin potential there?
偉大的。我只是想問一下鉸鏈。您在信中概述了通往 10 億美元的道路,非常感謝。我想真正深入研究這個問題的邊緣。正如我們看到 Hinge 規模正在朝著 10 億美元的收入目標邁進一樣,您如何看待那裡的利潤潛力?
Are you going to get closer to Tinder over time? And then just maybe perhaps an update on where Hinge's margins are today. I know in the past, you'd signaled that those were approaching the corporate average. So curious if that is still the case.
隨著時間的推移,您會與 Tinder 變得更加親近嗎?然後也許是 Hinge 目前利潤率的最新情況。我知道過去您曾表示這些數字已接近公司平均值。很好奇情況是否仍然如此。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Thanks, Justin. Why don't I take that? So Hinge margins are expected to be in the high 20s percent range for the year. So short of the corporate number, and they're about stable with where they were last year.
謝謝,賈斯汀。我為什麼不接受這個呢?因此,Hinge 今年的利潤率預計將在 20% 左右。企業數量如此之少,而且與去年的情況基本持平。
And I would point out really a couple of things going on that are affecting the Hinge margins. The first thing is we're making a significant investment in marketing really across all of the markets that Hinge is focused on. So there are 17 markets, we're not making every single one. But there's a significant effort going on, on the marketing side to build brand awareness, especially in these newer European countries.
我想指出的是,有幾件事正在影響鉸鏈的邊距。首先,我們在 Hinge 關注的所有市場的營銷方面進行了大量投資。所以有 17 個市場,我們並沒有涵蓋每一個市場。但在行銷方面,人們正在付出巨大的努力來建立品牌知名度,特別是在這些新興的歐洲國家。
And the revenue generation lags that. So it's an investment, and the revenue will start to help generate operating leverage for the business over time. We're generating more revenue from Europe this year than we did last year, and that will continue to grow. So that's one thing that's going to lead to improved margins at Hinge over time.
而收入的產生卻落後於此。因此,這是一項投資,隨著時間的推移,收入將開始幫助企業產生營運槓桿。今年我們從歐洲獲得的收入比去年更多,而且還會繼續成長。因此,隨著時間的推移,這將導致 Hinge 的利潤率提高。
The second thing is we're making a big investment in people there. We continue to expand headcount, particularly in product development, to continue to build out a better and better product experience. And so that investment is happening upfront, but those investments should lead to revenue generation, which also should lead to operating leverage over time.
第二件事是我們正在那裡的人員上進行大量投資。我們持續擴大人員數量,特別是在產品開發方面,以持續打造越來越好的產品體驗。因此,投資是預先進行的,但這些投資應該會帶來收入,隨著時間的推移,這也應該會帶來營運槓桿。
And so I'm confident that as Hinge scales, the investments that we're making in marketing, the investments in people will pay off, and the margins will start to approach company levels. I think we have a good line of sight to get there.
因此,我相信,隨著 Hinge 的規模擴大,我們在行銷方面的投資和對人員的投資將會得到回報,而且利潤率將開始接近公司層級。我認為我們有很好的視線可以到達那裡。
Where exactly Hinge's margins land is really going to depend on how fast and how big that business scales to. So the more scale it achieves, the more I have confidence that margins will continue to improve.
Hinge 的利潤到底在哪裡,實際上取決於該業務規模的速度和規模。因此,規模越大,我就越有信心利潤率會繼續提高。
I think there's a path to get company level. I think there's a path that could they be -- that they could be higher, but we'll have to see how that plays out and at what rate that, that plays out.
我認為有一條途徑可以達到公司級。我認為它們可能有一條路徑——它們可能會更高,但我們必須看看它如何發揮作用以及以什麼速度發揮作用。
I would tell you that Hinge margins, Hinge is investing more in marketing dollars than Tinder does, and that's because Tinder has such a high level of brand awareness in all the markets where it operates. It was a big viral sensation when it burst onto the scene. It hasn't had to spend the marketing dollars that others who came after it, including Hinge, have had to do.
我想告訴你,Hinge 的利潤率,Hinge 在行銷方面的投入比 Tinder 更多,這是因為 Tinder 在其運營的所有市場中都擁有如此高水平的品牌知名度。當它突然出現時,引起了巨大的病毒式轟動。它不必像其他後來者(包括 Hinge)那樣花費行銷資金。
So I think Hinge is always going to have margins that are below Tinder's level. For that reason, we are spending a little bit more marketing at Tinder. And so the gap is closing a little bit as Hinge improves its margin. But I do believe that, that's the dynamic we had, that Tinder is the higher-margin business, but -- that Tinder is a higher margin business, but that Hinge will be somewhere around company margins.
所以我認為 Hinge 的利潤率總是低於 Tinder 的水平。出於這個原因,我們在 Tinder 上花費了更多的行銷費用。因此,隨著 Hinge 利潤率的提高,差距正在一點點縮小。但我確實相信,這就是我們的動態,Tinder 是利潤率較高的業務,但是——Tinder 是利潤率較高的業務,但 Hinge 將處於公司利潤率附近。
And that all assumes no change in app store fees, which, of course, could be a big margin driver as well. So we'll see how that all plays out. But those are the dynamics that I see as Hinge continues to grow and mature.
所有這些都假設應用程式商店費用沒有變化,當然,這也可能是一個很大的利潤驅動因素。所以我們將看看這一切如何進行。但這些是我所看到的隨著 Hinge 不斷成長和成熟的動力。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的科里·卡彭特。
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Gary, could you expand on how you're planning to maintain your 36% or better margin target this year, despite the softer revenue outlook? And more broadly, are there any incremental areas you've identified to reduce costs?
Gary,您能否詳細說明一下,儘管收入前景疲軟,今年您計劃如何維持 36% 或更高的利潤率目標?更廣泛地說,您是否已確定可以降低成本的增量領域?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Happy to take that. So first of all, I would say, early in the year, we provided an outlook of 6% to 9% total company year-over-year revenue growth. And we were prepared to deliver 36% margins, even at the low end of that.
當然。很高興接受。首先,我想說,今年年初,我們預計公司總收入將年增 6% 至 9%。我們準備提供 36% 的利潤率,即使在這個數字的低端。
So what happened in terms of the performance thus far this year, we still have a plan to get to 36% margins, even if we're toward the lower end of our previously stated total company revenue range.
因此,從今年迄今為止的業績來看,我們仍然計劃實現 36% 的利潤率,即使我們正在接近先前規定的公司總收入範圍的下限。
Now obviously, we need to prepare for contingencies, and I'm not expecting this to happen. But if there were further deterioration to maintain that margin level, we have to take some additional actions.
現在顯然,我們需要為突發事件做好準備,我不希望這種情況發生。但如果情況進一步惡化以維持保證金水平,我們就必須採取一些額外的行動。
And so to your question, the first place we would look are things that don't impact revenue significantly. So corporate overhead, as an example, we would look to try to adjust areas that won't impact revenue generation. I don't think there's massive opportunity in those kinds of areas because we've been judicious and we've been fiscally responsible for a while. But that's a place that we could definitely look.
因此,對於您的問題,我們首先要考慮的是不會對收入產生重大影響的事情。以公司管理費用為例,我們會嘗試調整不會影響創造收入的領域。我不認為這些領域有巨大的機會,因為我們一直很明智,而且我們一段時間以來一直在財務上負責。但這是我們絕對可以看看的地方。
After that, you start to get into areas that have more effect on revenue. So marketing would be one. Obviously, we have a very large marketing budget, over $500 million for the year. We try to be very judicious with marketing across the businesses. We monitor for a return on that investment, of course.
之後,您開始進入對收入影響更大的領域。所以行銷就是其中之一。顯然,我們的行銷預算非常龐大,全年超過 5 億美元。我們努力在各個業務領域進行非常明智的營銷。當然,我們會監控該投資的回報。
But the good news is, we don't lock in to a lot of marketing commitments. And to the extent we have to make adjustments there, we can and we can be very nimble. But again, there could be knock-on effects on revenue generation if we adjust marketing. I think we're pretty well optimized on the marketing side. So that -- but that would be another place to look. It's a big expense line for us.
但好消息是,我們並沒有鎖定很多行銷承諾。如果我們必須在那裡做出調整,我們可以而且可以非常靈活。但同樣,如果我們調整行銷,可能會對創造收入產生連鎖反應。我認為我們在行銷方面進行了很好的優化。所以——但這將是另一個值得關注的地方。這對我們來說是一筆很大的開銷。
And then as we talked about a lot on the last earnings call and people are aware, we've got a number of innovation bets that are going on right now, that are critical to driving future growth. Those tend to be very margin dilutive in the early years because we're making investments in those businesses and they're pre-revenue.
然後,正如我們在上次財報電話會議上談論了很多並且人們都知道的那樣,我們現在正在進行許多創新押注,這對於推動未來成長至關重要。這些業務在早期往往會嚴重稀釋利潤,因為我們正在對這些業務進行投資,而且它們還沒有收入。
So in the event that we needed to find other places to look at, we would look at all those bets even more carefully. We are consistently reevaluating them. But that would be perhaps a luxury that we would not have as much of. Again, there would be knock-on effects on revenue in the future years, on growth in the future years if we curtailed some of those, but we'd have to look at that.
因此,如果我們需要尋找其他地方進行考察,我們會更仔細地審視所有這些賭注。我們一直在重新評估它們。但這也許是一種奢侈,我們不會那麼多。同樣,如果我們削減其中一些,將會對未來幾年的收入和成長產生連鎖反應,但我們必須考慮這一點。
So those are the trade-offs that you have to make. And obviously, they get tougher and tougher if things were to deteriorate. So we're -- the job one is really to generate improved trends, improved revenue growth and avoid the need to take any further cost actions.
所以這些是你必須做出的權衡。顯然,如果情況惡化,他們會變得越來越強硬。因此,我們的工作實際上是改善趨勢、提高收入成長並避免任何進一步的成本行動。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citi.
下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ygal Arounian。
Ygal Arounian - Director of Internet Equity Research
Ygal Arounian - Director of Internet Equity Research
I want to follow up on the product side and particularly around women and Gen Z. For women, you called out better product recommendations, better outcomes there. And you're calling out here and talking on the call a lot about being bolder on the product side.
我想在產品方面進行跟進,特別是圍繞女性和 Z 世代。您在這裡呼籲並在電話中談論了在產品方面更加大膽的內容。
So can you just help us understand what that means on the bolder side? What are the product expectations around the women and Gen Z and how we should think about that?
那麼您能幫助我們理解這在更大膽的方面意味著什麼嗎?女性和 Z 世代對產品的期望是什麼?
And then on the safety side, with losing MAUs, as you did that and kind of cleaned up some of that, I understand the impacts on the MAU loss. How should we think about, not the comps year-over-year, but how you expect that to drive improvement over time and how we should see that?
然後在安全性方面,隨著每月活躍用戶數的減少,正如您所做的那樣,並清理了其中的一些內容,我了解對每月活躍用戶數損失的影響。我們應該如何思考,而不是逐年比較,而是你期望它如何隨著時間的推移推動改進,我們應該如何看待這一點?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Great question. Gen Z and women, and women's experience, in particular, is our top priority. They are literally the most critical demographic for all dating apps. We know that women need to feel empowered and respected when they're on our apps. We have a series of initiatives to improve outcomes for women to make sure they're getting great matches.
很好的問題。 Z 世代和女性,尤其是女性的體驗是我們的首要任務。他們確實是所有約會應用程式中最關鍵的人。我們知道,女性在使用我們的應用程式時需要感到被賦予權力和受到尊重。我們採取了一系列措施來改善女性的成績,以確保她們獲得精彩的比賽。
Now on the trust and safety side, we have a very aggressive approach to removing bad actors, especially when we get reports from users. But recently, as we mentioned in the letter and in my opening remarks, we changed Tinder's community guidelines to remove people from Tinder who weren't there to date. Whether they're trying to grow their social media following or not very active, they had negative impacts on user perception of the Tinder product.
現在,在信任和安全方面,我們有一種非常積極的方法來消除不良行為者,特別是當我們收到用戶的報告時。但最近,正如我們在信中和開場白中提到的,我們更改了 Tinder 的社群準則,將迄今為止不在 Tinder 中的人員從 Tinder 中刪除。無論他們是想增加社群媒體粉絲還是不太活躍,他們都會對用戶對 Tinder 產品的看法產生負面影響。
So we made this change. And as Gary said, we think we lost about 2 million MAU, but it was the right call for Tinder because it's more important that we're delivering great matches and authentic users and also getting them out to meet in real life. These trade-ups are important, and the team has continued to evaluate and make hard decisions if it yields a healthier ecosystem.
所以我們做出了這個改變。正如Gary 所說,我們認為我們損失了大約200 萬月活躍用戶,但這對Tinder 來說是正確的選擇,因為更重要的是我們提供精彩的匹配和真實的用戶,並讓他們在現實生活中見面。這些交換很重要,團隊將持續評估是否能產生更健康的生態系統,並做出艱難的決定。
I'm going to give you an example. Tinder is going to start requiring face photos. We believe that will be great for the ecosystem because it will increase the authenticity of people's profiles. But we also think that it's very likely to impact MAU, as we weed out some people who are really not there to date or it actually creates extra time to get comfortable with this change.
我給你舉個例子。 Tinder 將開始要求提供臉部照片。我們相信這對生態系統來說非常有利,因為它將提高人們個人資料的真實性。但我們也認為這很可能會影響每月活躍用戶數,因為我們淘汰了一些目前為止確實不存在的人,或者實際上創造了額外的時間來適應這一變化。
However, as I talked about earlier, AI photo selector will help make selecting photos easier, and we believe this will minimize the impact on MAU. This is something that we'll test and monitor, but we obviously think this is the right call for the user experience and the wider ecosystem. Thanks for that question.
然而,正如我之前提到的,AI 照片選擇器將有助於讓選擇照片變得更加容易,我們相信這將最大限度地減少對 MAU 的影響。這是我們將測試和監控的內容,但我們顯然認為這是對用戶體驗和更廣泛的生態系統的正確要求。謝謝你提出這個問題。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Jian Li with Evercore ISI.
下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的李健。
Jian Li - Analyst
Jian Li - Analyst
A couple. First, if you can talk about the macro assumptions that came to this guide. Are you assuming that what you're seeing today in macro persist? And any improvement in payer growth has purely driven off, say, pricing optimization on product development?
一對夫婦。首先,您能否談談本指南中的宏觀假設。您是否認為您今天在宏觀上看到的情況會持續存在?付款人成長的任何改善純粹是推動了產品開發的定價優化嗎?
And also one on E&E. This interesting call-out on Archer, if you can double-click on -- is the growth mostly coming from user and conversion? Or any particular price action you've taken? And what -- how should we think about growth driver for this product or for Emerging in general the next year, just given your comments in the letter of Emerging starting to offset Evergreen potentially next year?
還有一個關於 E&E 的內容。關於 Archer 的這個有趣的標註,如果你可以雙擊——增長主要來自用戶和轉換嗎?或者您採取了任何特定的價格行動?鑑於您在新興市場明年可能開始抵消長青的信中的評論,我們應該如何考慮明年該產品或整個新興市場的成長動力?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
So let me jump in and take some of those. I mean, first of all, at Archer, I would just point out, it's a pre-revenue business. So really, what's happening is that we're seeing strong user growth. We haven't yet gotten to the point where we're monetizing that business.
那麼讓我介入並採取其中一些。我的意思是,首先,在Archer,我只想指出,這是一項尚未盈利的業務。事實上,我們看到了用戶的強勁成長。我們還沒有達到透過該業務獲利的程度。
I think that can come in the relative short term because the key thing to enable us to monetize is -- it is to grow users sufficiently if there's liquidity in the market. We're getting to that point, where we have enough users, daters on that app, and so we can start to roll out some initial monetization features. So that is part of the strategy.
我認為這可以在相對短期內實現,因為使我們能夠貨幣化的關鍵是——如果市場有流動性,就可以充分增加用戶。我們已經到了這一點,我們在該應用程式上擁有足夠的用戶和約會者,因此我們可以開始推出一些初步的獲利功能。這是戰略的一部分。
And as you asked about, I would think about the Emerging brands as a series of businesses, a series of bricks that are kind of stacked on top of each other. So we've got a number of demographic apps in that portfolio, and we're generating more and more revenue because we're stacking more and more bricks of demographically focused apps.
正如你所問的,我將新興品牌視為一系列業務,一系列相互堆疊的磚塊。因此,我們在該產品組合中擁有許多針對人口統計的應用程序,並且我們正在產生越來越多的收入,因為我們正在堆積越來越多的針對人口統計的應用程式。
So we have one focused on the [Asian community], we have one focus on the Hispanic community, one focused on the Black community, one focused on the gay male community. And all of those are generating revenue, and that's a growing pool of demographically tailored apps generating revenue. And obviously, as we get Archer to the monetization stage, that will be a bigger piece of the equation.
因此,我們有一個專注於[亞洲社區],我們有一個專注於西班牙裔社區,一個專注於黑人社區,一個專注於男同性戀社區。所有這些都在產生收入,而且越來越多的針對人群定制的應用程式產生了收入。顯然,當我們讓 Archer 進入獲利階段時,這將是方程式中更重要的一部分。
And so we've got moderating declines going on at the Evergreen brands because we're managing those businesses to a sort of managed decline or a reasonable level of decline. And we're able to generate enough revenue in the Emerging brands now to basically offset the declines that we see consistently in the Evergreen brand. So that's what's happening in the E&E brand as a whole.
因此,長青品牌的下滑正在放緩,因為我們正在將這些業務管理到某種可控的下滑或合理的下滑水平。我們現在能夠在新興品牌中產生足夠的收入,基本上可以抵消我們在常青品牌中持續看到的下降。這就是整個 E&E 品牌正在發生的事情。
And what we're trying to do is reduce redundancies there, use a common tech platform and be as efficient as possible and drive as strong margins as we can in that business. We're taking out a significant amount of cost, we've estimated $60 million.
我們正在努力做的是減少裁員,使用通用技術平台,盡可能提高效率,並在該業務中盡可能提高利潤率。我們花費了大量成本,估計為 6000 萬美元。
And so we'll have a business that should start to grow again modestly if that all comes to fruition at margins that will be quite attractive from the corporate perspective. That's the goal in the E&E businesses.
因此,如果這一切都以從企業角度來看相當有吸引力的利潤率實現的話,我們的業務應該會開始再次適度成長。這是電子電氣產業的目標。
I think you also asked the question about macro trends, and what I would say is we're not assuming a significant change in macro, which is really having the effect on Tinder ALC. So that's where it's relevant.
我認為您也問了有關宏觀趨勢的問題,我想說的是,我們並沒有假設宏觀發生重大變化,這確實對 Tinder ALC 產生了影響。這就是它的相關之處。
In the Tinder ALC, what we're trying to do there is find other ways to offset the macro trends by adding offerings, by adjusting offerings, by offering things at different price points, all of those things together to offset the headwinds we're seeing. But for the rest of the year, we're not assuming significant changes in the macro environment.
在 Tinder ALC 中,我們試圖做的是找到其他方法來抵消宏觀趨勢,透過增加產品、調整產品、以不同的價格提供產品,所有這些因素結合在一起來抵消我們面臨的不利因素。但在今年剩餘時間裡,我們預期宏觀環境不會有重大變化。
But we've done this once before. If you remember way back when, we adjusted the way we were merchandising a la carte offerings at Tinder because we started to see some pushback on them. We were offering more expensive bundles in a weaker economic environment, and so we adjusted our merchandising.
但我們以前已經做過一次了。如果你還記得很久以前,我們調整了 Tinder 上點菜產品的銷售方式,因為我們開始看到一些阻力。在經濟環境疲軟的情況下,我們提供了更昂貴的捆綁產品,因此我們調整了銷售策略。
And we're looking at similar kinds of changes again to adapt to a tougher macro environment, adjusting the pricing, adjusting what we offer and how we offer it, so we think we can improve the demand and cater better to the current economic climate, especially among those younger users at Tinder. So hopefully, that responds to your questions.
我們正在再次考慮類似的變化,以適應更嚴峻的宏觀環境,調整定價,調整我們提供的產品和提供方式,因此我們認為我們可以改善需求並更好地適應當前的經濟環境,尤其是Tinder 的年輕用戶。希望這能回答您的問題。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from James Heaney with Jefferies.
下一個問題來自杰弗里斯的詹姆斯希尼。
James Edward Heaney - VP & Equity Analyst
James Edward Heaney - VP & Equity Analyst
In the letter, you reiterated your confidence in sequential payer growth in Q3 and slowing user declines in the back half of the year. So I'm just curious what this would imply for Q4 payers and things that you can talk about Q1.
在信中,您重申了對第三季支付者連續成長和下半年用戶下降放緩的信心。所以我只是好奇這對第四季度的付款人意味著什麼以及你可以談論第一季的事情。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Thanks, James. Happy to take the question. And so we're expecting -- as I talked about as it related to Q3 sequential payer adds, we're expecting improved year-over-year payer growth as the year goes on.
當然。謝謝,詹姆斯。很高興接受這個問題。因此,我們預計 - 正如我所談到的,與第三季度連續付款人增加有關,我們預計隨著時間的推移,付款人的同比增長將有所改善。
We haven't seen that yet, but it's critical that we generate that through their product initiatives to drive conversion and/or MAU improvement. And so we are -- we need to be on the path to see improving year-over-year payer growth as the quarters go on.
我們還沒有看到這一點,但至關重要的是,我們透過他們的產品計劃來推動轉換和/或每月活躍用戶數的提高。因此,隨著季度的繼續,我們需要看到付款人的同比增長有所改善。
I still think that we have a path to get to year-over-year payer growth in Q4, but obviously, the weaker trends at the beginning of the year make that path a bit tougher. And so we have more wood to chop to get there by Q4, and we need initiatives at Tinder to drive us to that outcome.
我仍然認為我們有辦法在第四季度實現支付者同比增長,但顯然,年初的疲弱趨勢使這條道路變得更加艱難。因此,要在第四季度實現這一目標,我們還有更多工作要做,我們需要 Tinder 採取措施來推動我們實現這一目標。
I do want to say that I'm sure you understand this, but there seems to be some confusion between users on the one hand and payers on the other hand, so I want to explain how we use those terms. We talk about new users at Tinder, which really means registrations, new sign-ups. Sometimes, downloads are used as a substitute for that, and reactivations. That's new users at Tinder.
我確實想說,我相信您理解這一點,但一方面用戶和另一方面付款人之間似乎存在一些混淆,所以我想解釋我們如何使用這些術語。我們談論 Tinder 的新用戶,這實際上意味著註冊、新註冊。有時,下載被用來取代它,並重新啟動。這是 Tinder 的新用戶。
And we also talk about MAU, which we referred to here. Collectively, all of that is users or user growth at Tinder, and that is critical to be able to drive improved trends. And so we're very focused on initiatives to do that.
我們還討論了我們在這裡提到的 MAU。總的來說,所有這些都是 Tinder 的用戶或用戶成長,這對於推動趨勢的改善至關重要。因此,我們非常關注實現這一目標的舉措。
Improvement in users, in new users or users collectively at Tinder is what will enable us to drive year-over-year payer growth.because, obviously, payers come as users improve. There's a lag, but people sign up. They're on the platform, and we ultimately convert them into payers. And so those things are related.
用戶、新用戶或 Tinder 用戶總數的提高將使我們能夠推動付費用戶的逐年成長。雖然有延遲,但人們還是註冊了。他們在平台上,我們最終將他們轉化為付款人。所以這些事情是相關的。
So the fact that we believe we can get stronger user growth in the back half of the year through all of our product initiatives, app, ecosystem cleanup, et cetera, should generate improved payer growth as well. Maybe we won't get quite to it at the very end of this year. It may go into next year, but we're right now positioned to see improved payer growth in Q4 and then going into Q1 as well.
因此,我們相信,透過我們所有的產品計劃、應用程式、生態系統清理等,我們可以在今年下半年獲得更強勁的用戶成長,這也應該會帶來付款人的成長。也許到今年年底我們還無法完全解決這個問題。它可能會持續到明年,但我們現在預計第四季度的付款人成長會有所改善,然後也會進入第一季。
And so that bodes well for the longer-term trends in the business because as we improve the user growth and as we have initiatives driving conversion, we should start to see improved payer growth and, therefore, improved revenue growth as well.
因此,這對業務的長期趨勢來說是個好兆頭,因為隨著我們提高用戶成長以及推動轉換的舉措,我們應該開始看到付款人成長有所改善,因此收入成長也會有所改善。
That's the goal. That's what we're trying to achieve through the 4-prong strategy that Tinder is executing on. So hopefully, that addresses your question, James. I think we have time maybe for one more question.
這就是目標。這就是我們試圖透過 Tinder 執行的四管齊下策略來實現的目標。希望這能解決你的問題,詹姆斯。我想我們也許還有時間再問一個問題。
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Curtis Nagle with Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的柯蒂斯·內格爾。
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Terrific. Maybe just one real quick one and then a follow-up. Gary, you just mentioned initial headcount coming in to Hinge. Any other parts of the business where we'll see growth?
了不起。也許只是一個真正的快速的,然後是後續的。加里,您剛剛提到了 Hinge 的初始人數。我們還會在業務的其他部分看到成長嗎?
And then just one on the ACL (sic) [ALC] products, right? Any risk, I guess, of cannibalizing subscription revenue. It sounds like you're going to take some features that you have in premium. It could have been to ACL (sic) ALC offerings at more affordable price points.
然後只有 ACL(原文如此)[ALC] 產品之一,對嗎?我猜想,任何蠶食訂閱收入的風險都是如此。聽起來您將採用高級版中的一些功能。它可能是以更實惠的價格提供 ACL(原文如此)ALC 產品。
And then just what is the assumption in terms of contribution from a la carte in terms of revenue growth in the back half of the year?
那麼假設點菜對下半年營收成長的貢獻是多少呢?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
So just -- we don't have a lot of time, but I'll try to answer that relatively quickly. On the Hinge headcount, I did mention we are making significant investments there. It's primarily in product development.
所以,我們沒有太多時間,但我會嘗試相對較快地回答這個問題。關於 Hinge 的員工人數,我確實提到我們正在那裡進行重大投資。主要是在產品開發方面。
We do have a significant investment plan to the company overall on the headcount side, but I do think that will moderate as the year goes on. If you look at headcount costs, they're up a lot in the first quarter year-over-year. But there are some SBC effects and other things that I think will normalize. And so I think that headwind will abate as the year goes on.
我們確實在員工人數方面對公司整體制定了重大投資計劃,但我確實認為隨著時間的推移,這種投資計劃將會有所緩和。如果你看一下員工成本,你會發現第一季的員工成本比去年同期大幅上升。但我認為一些 SBC 效應和其他事情將會正常化。因此,我認為隨著時間的推移,逆風將會減弱。
Hinge is the primary place where we're investing in headcount, and I talked a little bit about the margin consequence there. There is some additional investment at Tinder and in some of the central innovation AI efforts. Those are the primary areas where we're investing in headcount. We're being really judicious elsewhere across the company. So that's kind of one piece of it.
Hinge 是我們在員工數量上投資的主要地方,我談到了那裡的利潤後果。 Tinder 和一些核心創新人工智慧專案還有一些額外投資。這些是我們在員工隊伍方面進行投資的主要領域。我們在整個公司的其他地方都非常明智。這就是其中的一部分。
On the a la carte cannibalization, that is a factor that we grapple with. There is the potential risk for a la carte to cannibalize subscription. And so we need to test and manage every new feature that we roll out on the a la carte side, which we do to make sure we understand the cannibalization.
關於點菜蠶食,這是我們要努力解決的因素。點菜服務存在蠶食訂閱的潛在風險。因此,我們需要測試和管理我們在點菜方面推出的每一項新功能,這樣做是為了確保我們了解蠶食。
If it's revenue accretive, we're still comfortable doing that, but you might see knock-on effects on subscribers, but overall better generation on the a la carte side. So that's something that we manage that balance. It's a critical skill that we have, and we're going to continue to do so.
如果它能增加收入,我們仍然願意這樣做,但你可能會看到對訂戶的連鎖反應,但總體而言,點菜方面會產生更好的效果。這就是我們管理這種平衡的方法。這是我們擁有的一項關鍵技能,我們將繼續這樣做。
We have a lot of a la carte products and adjustments in the pipeline for Tinder in the back half of the year. So I'm expecting a la carte revenue growth in the back half of the year or improvement from where we are now at least.
今年下半年,我們有許多 Tinder 的點菜產品和調整正在醞釀中。因此,我預計下半年的點餐收入會有所成長,或至少會比現在有所改善。
And I do think that the percentage of Tinder's revenue that we generate from a la carte should start to increase as well as we're growing a la carte. I don't think it will be dramatic. It's around 20%, probably tick up to 21%, 22%.
我確實認為,隨著我們的點菜業務不斷增長,我們從點菜業務中獲得的收入比例也應該開始增加。我認為這不會是戲劇性的。大約是20%,可能會上升到21%、22%。
So that's what we expect to see in the back half of the year as we roll out more of these a la carte focused initiatives at Tinder. So hopefully that addresses your question. I think we're out of time, but I'll turn the call back over to BK.
這就是我們預計在今年下半年看到的情況,因為我們在 Tinder 上推出了更多此類以點菜為重點的舉措。希望這能解決您的問題。我想我們已經沒時間了,但我會把電話轉回給 BK。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Gary, and thanks, everyone, for joining today's call. Gary and I appreciate your questions, and thank you so much for your interest.
謝謝加里,謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。加里和我感謝您的提問,也非常感謝您的關注。
We're all really excited about the business that we're building and the opportunities ahead. We look forward to continuing the conversation, and have a great day. Thank you, all.
我們都對我們正在建立的業務和未來的機會感到非常興奮。我們期待繼續對話,祝您有美好的一天。謝謝你們。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。