Match Group Inc (MTCH) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    各位來賓,歡迎參加Match Group 2023年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作說明)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁坦尼·謝爾伯恩女士。請開始吧。

  • Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR

    Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.

    謝謝接線員,大家早安。今天的電話會議將由執行長伯納德·金和總裁兼財務長加里·斯威德勒主持。他們將作簡短致辭,之後我們將開放提問環節。

  • Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC.

    在會議開始之前,我需要提醒各位,我們可能會在本次電話會議中討論公司前景和未來業績。這些前瞻性陳述可能包含「我們預期」、「我們相信」、「我們預期」或類似表述。這些陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響,我們的實際業績可能與今天表達的觀點有重大差異。部分風險已在我們的獲利報告和提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)的定期報告中列出。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.

    那麼,我想把電話交給BK。

  • Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

    Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Tanny, and good morning, everyone. Having served as CEO for nearly a full year, I want to start off by highlighting the accomplishments this team has achieved and all the opportunities ahead. We've made changes to set up Match Group for long-term growth, but there is a lot more work to do and areas to improve on.

    謝謝Tanny,大家早安。我擔任CEO已經快一年了,首先我想重點介紹團隊所取得的成就以及未來的發展機會。我們已經做出了一些調整,以確保Match Group的長期發展,但還有很多工作要做,還有很多方面需要改進。

  • We restructured Match Group's businesses to optimize internal operations, increase cross-brand collaboration and improve the speed to ship products. These changes are having a real impact, and the teams have never worked this closely together before. We are working together to innovate, tackle challenges and reaccelerate growth.

    我們對Match Group的業務進行了重組,以優化內部營運、加強跨品牌協作並加快產品交付速度。這些變革正在產生實際的影響,團隊之間的合作也達到了前所未有的緊密程度。我們正攜手創新、應對挑戰並重新加速成長。

  • Hinge continues to set the bar for what an A+ acquisition should look like. We acquired Hinge in 2018 when the app was generating just under $1 million in revenue. Just 5 years later, Hinge has surpassed 1 million Payers and is on track to generate approximately $400 million in total revenue for 2023. Hinge's exponential growth is largely due to the team's passion and ability to focus on product, coupled with Match Group's expertise and operational support.

    Hinge持續樹立A+級收購的標竿。我們在2018年收購了Hinge,當時這款應用程式的年收入略低於100萬美元。僅僅五年後,Hinge的付費用戶就突破了100萬,並有望在2023年實現約4億美元的總收入。 Hinge的指數級成長主要歸功於團隊的熱情和對產品的專注,以及Match Group的專業知識和營運支援。

  • In addition to its meaningful traction in English-speaking markets, Hinge is successfully expanding internationally, and we're impressed with these early results. The team also successfully launched a new subscription tier, HingeX, and has so much runway ahead. I continue to be impressed by the momentum at Hinge, and I'm excited to see them grow to new heights as part of the Match Group family.

    除了在英語市場取得顯著進展外,Hinge 的國際擴張也十分成功,我們對這些早期成果印象深刻。團隊也成功推出了新的訂閱服務 HingeX,未來發展潛力巨大。 Hinge 的發展勢頭令我印象深刻,我很高興看到他們作為 Match Group 的一員,能夠取得更大的成就。

  • Now turning to Tinder, where the majority of our energy has been focused. As you all know, we've made some changes to the Tinder leadership team and restructured Tinder's organization to immediately address the lack of output that was occurring. These changes have shored up the frequent turnover and loss of institutional knowledge that Tinder was facing. Just to give you an example, we had roughly 15 VPs and above voluntarily depart Tinder in the months before the new leadership team took over. Since then, we have not had a single person of that level voluntarily depart Tinder.

    現在來說說我們投入最多精力的Tinder。如大家所知,我們對Tinder的領導團隊進行了一些調整,並重組了組織架構,以立即解決先前出現的產出不足問題。這些調整有效緩解了Tinder之前面臨的人員頻繁流動和知識流失問題。舉個例子,在新領導團隊接手前的幾個月裡,大約有15位副總裁及以上級別的高階主管主動離職。而自那以後,再也沒有出現過任何一位同等級的高階主管主動離職的情況。

  • Back in February, we shared a detailed product road map for 2023. This road map is a culmination of our near-term vision for Tinder, and the whole organization has rallied around it. The changes we've made are working. In fact, the team is shipping and testing more features than they were at the height of their delivery in 2021.

    今年二月,我們發布了詳細的 2023 年產品路線圖。這份路線圖凝聚了我們對 Tinder 近期願景的構想,整個公司上下都為此全力以赴。我們所做的改變正在發揮作用。事實上,團隊目前發布和測試的功能比 2021 年產品交付高峰期還要多。

  • Tinder recently launched weekly subscription packages in the U.S., in addition to optimizing tiered pricing. We launched these initiatives at the very end of Q1, and we're starting to see early revenue momentum beginning to build in April, but it is still early.

    除了優化分級定價之外,Tinder 近期還在美國推出了每週訂閱方案。這些舉措是在第一季末推出的,4 月開始出現初步的營收成長勢頭,但現在下結論還為時過早。

  • One of the things I've learned in my role as CEO of Tinder is that dating platforms have a delicate ecosystem. And it's important to fully understand the impact new features or minor adjustments can have on the user experience, not only for Payers but non-Payers as well. So it is vital for our teams to rigorously test and ensure we're introducing the right features for the ecosystem as a whole. This cautious approach to testing new features and rolling them out methodically is one reason why the revenue impact is muted at the start, but will grow over time.

    身為 Tinder 的 CEO,我深刻體會到約會平台的生態系統非常脆弱。因此,充分了解新功能或細微調整對用戶體驗的影響至關重要,這不僅關係到付費用戶,也關係到非付費用戶。所以,我們的團隊必須嚴格測試,確保推出的功能對整個生態系統都適用。這種謹慎的新功能測試和循序漸進的推廣方式,也是導致初期營收影響不大,但隨著時間的推移會逐漸增長的原因之一。

  • Another key focus has been redefining Tinder's brand narrative. Tinder rolled out its marketing campaign in Q1, and it's having a strong initial impact. Its primary focus was to improve perception, especially among young women. As we detailed in the letter, we've seen noticeable improvements in brand consideration and intent. Marketing began in the U.S. and U.K. and has now expanded to additional markets.

    另一個重點是重新定義 Tinder 的品牌故事。 Tinder 在第一季推出了行銷活動,並取得了顯著的初步成效。其主要目標是提升品牌認知度,尤其是在年輕女性族群。正如我們在信中所詳述的那樣,我們看到品牌認知度和購買意願都得到了顯著提升。行銷活動最初在美國和英國開展,現在已擴展到其他市場。

  • As a result, Tinder has started to see improved user growth in several key markets, including the U.S. and U.K., but it is only the first step in a multiphase campaign. As the team continues to build on this momentum and focus on execution, I believe Tinder is well positioned to exit 2023 with improved financial performance and longer-term sustainable growth.

    因此,Tinder在包括美國和英國在內的幾個關鍵市場的用戶成長已開始改善,但這只是多階段行銷活動的第一步。隨著團隊繼續保持這一勢頭並專注於執行,我相信Tinder完全有能力在2023年底實現財務業績的提升和更長期的可持續增長。

  • Zooming back out, Match Group's purpose is to expand and innovate the dating experience for singles around the world, so everyone can find a meaningful connection. I have tasked our new CTO to work with our leadership team to evaluate emerging technologies like AI, which we believe can be a massive unlock for the category, the same way that the shift to mobile led to the creation of Tinder, which redefined the category just 10 years ago.

    從宏觀角度來看,Match Group 的宗旨是拓展和創新全球單身人士的約會體驗,讓每個人都能找到有意義的伴侶。我已經責成新任首席技術長與領導團隊合作,評估人工智慧等新興技術。我們相信,這些技術能夠像十年前行動裝置興起催生 Tinder 一樣,為約會產業帶來巨大的改變。 Tinder 的出現徹底改變了約會產業的格局。

  • There is a significant opportunity to leverage AI in profile creation, matching and discovery as well as throughout the post-match experience to unlock new user adoption. We believe we can leverage these new capabilities to drive the next phase of growth.

    在個人資料創建、匹配和發現以及匹配後的整個體驗過程中,利用人工智慧技術能夠顯著提升用戶黏性。我們相信,我們可以利用這些新功能來推動下一階段的成長。

  • As a leadership team, we're cognizant of the delicate balance between achieving short-term revenue wins while driving sustained shareholder value. We're focused on achieving both objectives prudently, assessing the trade-offs and opportunities to hit our 2023 expectations, while also delivering unique, innovative and compelling user experiences for years to come.

    作為領導團隊,我們深知在實現短期營收成長和持續提升股東價值之間需要謹慎權衡。我們致力於審慎地實現這兩個目標,評估各種利弊和機遇,以達成我們2023年的預期目標,同時為未來數年提供獨特、創新且引人入勝的用戶體驗。

  • And with that, I'll kick it over to Gary.

    那麼,接下來就交給加里了。

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Thanks, BK, and hello, everyone. Our Q1 2023 total revenue was still not to the standards we expect of ourselves, coming in at $787 million, down 1% year-over-year. FX was a notable headwind once again as our total revenue would have been $822 million, up 3% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis. The year-over-year FX headwind was $7 million more than we expected when we provided our Q1 outlook on our February earnings call. The unexpected additional headwind resulted in total revenue slightly below the range that we provided on that call.

    謝謝BK,大家好。我們2023年第一季的總營收仍未達到預期,為7.87億美元,年減1%。匯率波動再次成為顯著的不利因素,若不考慮匯率因素,我們的總營收本應達到8.22億美元,年增3%。這一同比匯率波動帶來的不利影響比我們在2月份財報電話會議上給出的第一季預期高出700萬美元。這一意料之外的額外不利因素導致總營收略低於我們在電話會議上給出的預期範圍。

  • Direct Revenue, which is revenue we earned directly from our users, was down 1% year-over-year, up 3% FX-neutral in Q1. This was driven by total Payers down 3% year-over-year to $15.9 million and RPP up 2% year-over-year at $16.26. On an FX-neutral basis, Q1 RPP was up 6% year-over-year company-wide.

    第一季度,直接收入(即我們直接從用戶獲得的收入)較去年同期下降1%,但以固定匯率計算成長3%。這主要是由於付費用戶總數較去年同期下降3%至1,590萬美元,而每位用戶平均收入(RPP)年增2%至16.26美元。以固定匯率計算,第一季公司整體每用戶平均營收年增6%。

  • Tinder slightly underperformed our expectations in the quarter. Tinder Direct Revenue was flat year-over-year at $441 million, up 4% FX-neutral. Tinder Payers were relatively flat year-over-year in Q1 at $10.7 million, and RPP was also relatively flat year-over-year at $13.80. Tinder saw year-over-year subscription revenue growth, while a la carte revenue declined year-over-year, impacted by the macro environment.

    Tinder本季業績略低於預期。 Tinder直接營收為4.41億美元,與去年同期持平,以固定匯率計算成長4%。 Tinder付費用戶收入為1,070萬美元,與去年同期基本持平;每用戶平均收入(RPP)為13.80美元,與去年同期基本持平。 Tinder的訂閱收入年增,但受宏觀經濟環境影響,單次付費收入較去年同期下降。

  • Tinder released weekly subscriptions and undertook pricing optimizations in several markets, including the U.S., towards the end of the quarter, limiting their revenue impact on Q1. User growth in the quarter was slightly below our expectations. However, in April, we've started to see much improved Tinder performance as the top of the funnel has strengthened somewhat and the weekly subscription and pricing optimizations have begun to deliver tangible revenue contribution. Tinder plans to test weekly subscriptions and pricing optimizations in additional markets this quarter.

    Tinder在第一季末推出了每週訂閱服務,並在包括美國在內的多個市場進行了價格優化,因此對第一季的收入影響有限。該季度用戶成長略低於預期。然而,4月份,隨著用戶轉換漏斗頂端的流量有所增強,以及每週訂閱服務和價格優化開始帶來切實的收入貢獻,Tinder的整體表現顯著改善。 Tinder計劃在本季在更多市場測試每週訂閱服務和價格優化。

  • Tinder introduced its marketing campaign in Q1, and it's achieving its objective of improving brand sentiment, especially among younger users, particularly women. As a result of that campaign, Tinder's market position in terms of downloads has improved in several key markets, most notably, the U.S. and the U.K.

    Tinder在第一季推出了行銷活動,並已達到提升品牌好感度的目標,尤其是在年輕用戶,特別是女性用戶中。該活動的成功促使Tinder在幾個關鍵市場(尤其是美國和英國)的下載量有所提升,市佔率也隨之成長。

  • Our Hinge brand continues to perform very strongly. Hinge grew Direct Revenue 27%, 30% FX-neutral year-over-year, slightly ahead of our expectations, as performance in core English-speaking markets continued to be outstanding. Hinge Payers were up 15% and totaled over 1 million in the quarter, while RPP of over $25 was up over 10% year-over-year. The new subscription tiers at Hinge continue to contribute as well, with the 20% take rate of the more premium tier HingeX, consistent with our expectations. And as we detailed in the letter, Hinge's European expansion continues to have major traction.

    我們的 Hinge 品牌表現持續強勁。 Hinge 直接營收年增 27%,以固定匯率計算年增 30%,略高於預期,這主要得益於其在核心英語市場持續優異的表現。 Hinge 付費用戶數量成長 15%,本季總數超過 100 萬,而每筆超過 25 美元的付費用戶數量較去年同期成長超過 10%。 Hinge 的全新訂閱套餐也持續貢獻力量,其中高端套餐 HingeX 的佣金率為 20%,與我們的預期相符。正如我們在信中所詳述的那樣,Hinge 在歐洲的擴張也取得了顯著進展。

  • Our MG Asia business saw year-over-year Direct Revenue decline 13% in Q1, though down only 3% FX-neutral. At Hyperconnect, Azar grew Direct Revenue 4% year-over-year, though much stronger on an FX-neutral basis, but Hakuna and Pairs saw year-over-year declines.

    我們的MG亞洲業務第一季直接營收年減13%,但以固定匯率計算僅下降3%。 Hyperconnect方面,Azar的直接收入年增4%,以固定匯率計算增幅更大,但Hakuna和Pairs的直接收入較去年同期下降。

  • At Evergreen & Emerging, Direct Revenue declined 8% year-over-year, 6% FX-neutral, as we continued to moderate marketing spend at the Evergreen Brands. The Emerging Brands, including Chispa, BLK and The League, collectively grew Direct Revenue in excess of 50% year-over-year. Both MG Asia and E&E performance was consistent with our expectations.

    常青及新興品牌業務的直接收入較去年同期下降8%(以固定匯率計算下降6%),原因是我們在常青品牌方面持續控制行銷支出。新興品牌(包括Chispa、BLK和The League)的直接收入年增超過50%。 MG亞洲和E&E的業績均符合預期。

  • Indirect Revenue was $13 million in Q1, down 14% year-over-year, as marketers globally continued to tighten advertising budgets and ad prices declined. Operating income was $198 million in Q1, a 5% year-over-year decrease for a margin of 25%. Q1 Adjusted Operating Income, or AOI, was $263 million, down 4% year-over-year, representing a margin of 33%. Q1 AOI and margins were above our prior expectations despite the Total Revenue shortfall versus our expectations as we continue to focus on costs, reducing marketing spend further and rationalizing some additional overhead costs as well.

    第一季間接營收為1,300萬美元,年減14%,原因是全球行銷人員持續收緊廣告預算,廣告價格也隨之下降。第一季營業收入為1.98億美元,年減5%,利潤率為25%。第一季調整後營業收入(AOI)為2.63億美元,較去年同期下降4%,利潤率為33%。儘管總收入低於預期,但由於我們持續關注成本控制,進一步削減行銷支出並合理化部分額外管理費用,第一季AOI和利潤率均高於預期。

  • We incurred approximately $4 million of severance and similar costs in Q1. Overall expenses, including SBC expense, were essentially flat year-over-year in Q1. Cost of revenue, including SBC expense, grew 2% year-over-year and represented 30% of Total Revenue, flat year-over-year. Live streamer fees declined, but app store fees increased year-over-year, primarily due to the $8 million escrow payment to Google, the last of which will be due in Q2.

    第一季我們產生了約 400 萬美元的遣散費及類似費用。包括 SBC 費用在內的總支出在第一季基本上與去年同期持平。包括 SBC 費用在內的營收成本年增 2%,佔總營收的 30%,與去年同期持平。直播平台費用有所下降,但應用程式商店費用年增,這主要是由於向Google支付了 800 萬美元的託管款項,最後一筆款項將於第二季到期。

  • Selling and marketing spend, including SBC expense, decreased $15 million or 10% year-over-year, the fourth consecutive quarter where we've seen a year-over-year reduction as we continue to reduce marketing spend at our Evergreen Brands and to exercise ROI discipline overall. We increased sales and marketing spend meaningfully year-over-year at Hinge and modestly at Tinder, but it was down year-over-year at virtually all other brands.

    包括SBC費用在內的銷售和行銷支出較去年同期減少了1,500萬美元,降幅達10%。這是我們連續第四個季度出現年減,因為我們持續削減旗下常青品牌的行銷支出,並整體貫徹投資報酬率原則。 Hinge的銷售和行銷支出較去年同期大幅成長,Tinder的增幅不大,但幾乎所有其他品牌的銷售和行銷支出均較去年同期下降。

  • Selling and marketing spend was down 2 points year-over-year as a percentage of Total Revenue to 17%. Product development costs, including SBC expense, grew 25% year-over-year and were 12% of Total Revenue, primarily reflecting the impact of engineering hiring at Tinder in late '21, early '22 and at Hinge. At this point, Hinge is the only major business within our portfolio where hiring remains particularly active.

    銷售和行銷支出佔總收入的比例較去年同期下降2個百分點,至17%。產品開發成本(包括SBC費用)年增25%,佔總收入的12%,這主要反映了Tinder在2021年末至2022年初以及Hinge的工程招聘活動的影響。目前,Hinge是我們投資組合中唯一一家仍在積極招募的主要公司。

  • Interest expense increased 13% year-over-year in Q1, primarily due to the floating rate structure of our term loan, but interest income also increased very meaningfully given higher rates we are earning on our cash. Our gross leverage was 3.5x trailing AOI and net leverage was 3x at the end of Q1. Our target remains for net leverage to be below 3x. We ended the quarter with $578 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on hand.

    第一季利息支出年增13%,主要原因是定期貸款採用浮動利率結構,但由於現金收益率提高,利息收入也顯著成長。第一季末,我們的總槓桿率為3.5倍(基於過去12個月的年度利息收入),淨槓桿率為3倍。我們仍將淨槓桿率控制在3倍以下。季末,我們持有現金、現金等價物及短期投資共5.78億美元。

  • We repurchased 2.6 million of our common shares in the quarter for $113 million. At the end of Q1, we had only 2.7 million shares remaining under our existing buyback authorization. Our Board of Directors has authorized a new $1 billion buyback to replace the existing plan, which we expect to deploy over the next 2 to 3 years.

    本季我們以1.13億美元回購了260萬股普通股。截至第一季末,我們現有回購授權下僅剩270萬股。董事會已批准一項新的10億美元回購計劃,以取代現有計劃,預計在未來2至3年內實施。

  • As we discussed in the shareholder letter, we expect to generate approximately $800 million of free cash flow this year, with further growth over the coming years. Going forward, we intend to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders. In consultation with our Board of Directors, we will determine the right timing and tools to use for return of capital.

    正如我們在致股東信中所述,我們預計今年將產生約8億美元的自由現金流,並在未來幾年繼續成長。展望未來,我們計劃將至少50%的自由現金流返還給股東。我們將與董事會協商,以確定合適的返還時機和方式。

  • Our capital allocation priorities are: one, to invest organically in our business; two, to strengthen our balance sheet; and three, to make compelling acquisitions. We may opt to return even more capital to shareholders if we do not identify sufficient compelling investment or acquisition opportunities.

    我們的資本配置優先事項是:第一,對公司業務進行內生性投資;第二,增強資產負債表;第三,進行具吸引力的收購。如果我們未能找到足夠多的具有吸引力的投資或收購機會,我們可能會選擇向股東返還更多資本。

  • For Q2 '23, we expect Total Revenue for Match Group of $805 million to $815 million, up 1% to 3% year-over-year. We expect FX to be slightly more than a 1 point year-over-year headwind. At Tinder, we expect Direct Revenue to be up low single digits year-over-year, also with a little more than a 1 point year-over-year FX headwind. On a sequential basis, we expect Tinder Direct Revenue to increase in the low- to mid-single-digit percentage range. This strong sequential growth demonstrates that momentum is building and gives us confidence in achieving the strong exit rates we anticipate in Q4.

    我們預計Match Group 2023年第二季總營收為8.05億美元至8.15億美元,年增1%至3%。我們預期匯率波動將對營收造成略高於1個百分點的年比不利影響。 Tinder方面,我們預期直接營收將實現個位數低段的年成長,同樣會受到略高於1個百分點的匯率波動影響。環比來看,我們預期Tinder直接營收將達到個位數低段至中段的成長。這一強勁的環比成長顯示成長動能正在增強,也讓我們有信心在第四季實現預期的高退出率。

  • We expect Tinder Q2 Payers to decline year-over-year and sequentially. There are a number of initiatives in flight globally, including the introduction of weekly packages and the implementation of price changes, which are having various positive and negative impacts on Payers and are being rolled out at various times in various markets.

    我們預計 Tinder 第二季付費用戶數將年減和季減。目前,Tinder 在全球推行多項舉措,包括推出週套餐和調整價格,這些舉措對付費用戶的影響各有不同,既有積極影響也有消極影響,並且在不同市場的推出時間也各不相同。

  • It's important to understand that Tinder in the U.S. elected to implement one of the higher price levels it tested, which we believe will maximize Direct Revenue, but will correspondingly have a large negative impact on conversion and Payers. We expect that Tinder sequential Payer additions will be much stronger by the end of the year once these changes are implemented.

    需要注意的是,美國 Tinder 選擇實施其測試過的較高價格方案之一,我們認為這將最大化直接收入,但同時也會對轉換率和付費用戶數量產生較大的負面影響。我們預計,一旦這些調整實施完畢,到年底 Tinder 的付費用戶成長速度將顯著提升。

  • We expect Hinge to deliver meaningfully accelerating Q2 year-over-year Direct Revenue growth, driven by continued strong performance in Hinge's English-speaking markets and the effects of the new pricing tiers and continued European expansion. We expect MG Asia to decline modestly year-over-year in Q2 and be essentially flat year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis.

    我們預計,在Hinge英語市場持續強勁表現、新定價體系的實施以及歐洲業務持續擴張的推動下,其第二季直接收入將實現顯著加速成長。我們預期MG亞洲第二季將小幅下滑,以固定匯率計算,與去年同期大致持平。

  • We expect our Evergreen & Emerging Brands Direct Revenue to decline year-over-year at similar rates as was the case in Q1, with similar growth rates at each of the Evergreen & emerging groups of brands as was the case in Q1 as well. We expect Q2 Indirect Revenue to be closer to flat year-over-year as we broaden the opportunities we offer for advertising in our products.

    我們預期常青品牌和新興品牌的直接營收將年減,降幅與第一季相近;各常青品牌和新興品牌組的成長率也將與第一季相近。隨著我們不斷拓展產品廣告管道,預計第二季間接收入將與去年同期基本持平。

  • We expect AOI of $275 million to $280 million in Q2, representing margin of approximately 34% at the midpoints of the ranges. We expect overall marketing spend to increase year-over-year in Q2, specifically at Tinder and Hinge, with reductions in almost every other brand in the portfolio. We do expect to allocate some marketing dollars to our newly incubated app to support its introduction this summer.

    我們預計第二季平均營業收入(AOI)為2.75億美元至2.8億美元,以區間中位數計算,利潤率約為34%。我們預期第二季整體行銷支出將年增,尤其是在Tinder和Hinge這兩個品牌上,而旗下幾乎所有其他品牌的行銷支出都將減少。我們計劃將部分行銷預算投入到我們新孵化的應用程序,以支援其在今年夏季的上線。

  • We expect IAP fees to continue to be a year-over-year headwind in Q2, though we expect to stop placing funds into the Google escrow after July, per the terms we have agreed to. We expect to continue to be very cautious on spending in all other spending categories within our control. We anticipate incurring approximately $4 million of severance and similar costs in Q2.

    我們預計應用程式內購買 (IAP) 費用在第二季度仍將構成同比不利因素,但根據我們已達成的協議,我們預計將在7月之後停止向Google託管帳戶存入資金。我們預計將繼續對我們可控的所有其他支出類別保持高度謹慎。我們預計第二季將產生約400萬美元的遣散費及類似費用。

  • Given the emerging success of the recent initiatives at Tinder and the momentum we expect the business to continue to build over the coming quarters, we have confidence that in Q4, Tinder year-over-year Direct Revenue growth will reach double digits as will the company's overall year-over-year total revenue growth.

    鑑於 Tinder 近期各項舉措取得的成功,以及我們預期該業務將在未來幾季度繼續保持的增長勢頭,我們有信心,在第四季度,Tinder 的直接收入同比增長將達到兩位數,公司整體的年度總收入同比增長也將達到兩位數。

  • We admittedly have had a modestly weaker Q1 and anticipate a slightly weaker Q2 than we expected when we provided our full year outlook back in November of last year. As such, there is an increasing likelihood that we will be closer to the lower end of our total revenue growth outlook for the full year.

    我們承認第一季業績略低於預期,並預期第二季業績也會比去年11月發布全年展望時預期的略低。因此,我們全年總營收成長最終接近預期下限的可能性越來越大。

  • That said, marketing and product momentum is improving at Tinder, and we had strong performance in April, so we're eager to see how all these initiatives continue to progress. We also remain confident that Hinge's momentum will lead it to deliver approximately $400 million of Direct Revenue in 2023.

    儘管如此,Tinder 的行銷和產品發展勢頭正在增強,我們在四月份取得了強勁的業績,因此我們非常期待看到所有這些舉措的後續進展。我們也仍然相信,Hinge 的發展勢頭將使其在 2023 年實現約 4 億美元的直接收入。

  • In terms of full year 2023 AOI margin, we continue to target flat or better than the 35% we achieved last year. We continue to expect improving year-over-year margins as the benefits of our cost savings initiatives take hold and Tinder top line growth reaccelerates.

    就2023年全年AOI利潤率而言,我們仍將力爭與去年的35%持平或更高。隨著成本節約措施的成效逐步顯現,以及Tinder營收成長再次加速,我們預期利潤率將逐年提升。

  • There continues to be a lot of developments in both legal systems and legislatures around the world regarding app store policies, and we remain optimistic that further change is coming, especially as a result of the Digital Markets Act in the EU early next year. The most recent news was the Epic Games versus Apple appeal in the Ninth Circuit. As a result of that decision, we're increasingly hopeful that we'll be able to promote less expensive payment methods with improved customer service to our users in the not-too-distant future.

    全球各地的法律體系和立法機構在應用商店政策方面持續取得諸多進展,我們仍然樂觀地認為未來會有更多變革,尤其是在歐盟明年年初即將實施的《數位市場法案》之後。最近的新聞是Epic Games訴蘋果公司一案在第九巡迴上訴法院的上訴。由於該判決,我們越來越有信心在不久的將來能夠為用戶提供更經濟實惠的支付方式和更優質的客戶服務。

  • When we provided our full year outlook last November, I said that we expected to take a little time in the first half of 2023 to build momentum, but are confident that improved product momentum and our financial discipline position us for much stronger growth and profitability in the back half of the year as well as long term. That view has not changed.

    去年11月我們發佈全年展望時,我曾說過,我們預計2023年上半年需要一些時間來積累增長勢頭,但我們相信,隨著產品勢頭的增強和財務紀律的貫徹,我們將在下半年以及長期實現更強勁的增長和盈利能力。這一觀點至今未變。

  • We would have preferred to see a little more momentum at the outset of '23, but we strongly believe the changes we've made are working, momentum is gradually building, and we're positioned for much better financial performance by the end of this year, which should provide momentum into next year as well. Additionally, we believe that the combination of our updated capital allocation approach and our path to stronger growth can create a very compelling level of return for our shareholders.

    我們原本希望在2023年初看到更強勁的成長勢頭,但我們堅信我們所做的調整正在奏效,成長勢頭正在逐步增強,我們已做好準備,預計到今年年底將實現更佳的財務業績,這將為明年的發展提供持續動力。此外,我們相信,我們更新的資本配置策略與更強勁的成長路徑結合,能夠為股東創造極具吸引力的回報。

  • With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

    這樣,我就可以請接線生開通提問專線了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from James Heaney with Jefferies.

    (操作說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 James Heaney。

  • James Edward Heaney - Equity Associate

    James Edward Heaney - Equity Associate

  • Just for Gary, can you talk specifically about the encouraging signs that you're seeing at Tinder in April? Is that primarily around the success you're seeing on price increases? Or are there other specific optimizations that are driving the uplift?

    Gary,可以具體談談你在四月從 Tinder 看到的那些令人鼓舞的跡象嗎?主要是漲價帶來的成功嗎?還是還有其他具體的優化措施推動了業績成長?

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Thanks, James, for the question. We've actually seen improvement in several Tinder KPIs here in April. And really, what I'm referring to is new user sign-ups as well as reactivations of old users. And we've seen improvement because of the marketing campaign and other initiatives that Tinder has undertaken.

    謝謝 James 的提問。事實上,我們在四月看到 Tinder 的幾個關鍵績效指標都有所提升。我指的是新用戶註冊量以及舊用戶的重新啟動率。這些提升得益於 Tinder 的行銷活動和其他措施。

  • In terms of the revenue lift, the new weekly subscriptions and price optimizations didn't roll out to any significant extent until April. And now they're in 5 major countries, which is leading to incremental revenue. So we're seeing strength, both in terms of top of the funnel and the revenue initiatives really take hold. We're going to test these price optimizations in several geographies in Q2. And as we roll out the weekly subscription packages in many more markets, that's going to add incremental revenue.

    就營收成長而言,新的周訂閱服務和價格優化方案直到四月才開始大規模推廣。目前,這些方案已涵蓋五個主要國家,並帶來了增量營收。因此,我們看到了強勁的成長勢頭,無論是在潛在客戶開發方面,還是在營收成長方面,各項舉措都已真正奏效。我們將在第二季在多個地區測試這些價格優化方案。隨著週訂閱套餐在更多市場推出,這將帶來額外的營收成長。

  • One month isn't enough to really make a call, but we feel optimistic given we're seeing the initiatives have success with the top of the funnel and on the revenue side. And so as a result of that, our outlook contemplates sequential revenue improvement in Q2 compared to Q1. And that's showing that what BK and the team are doing at Tinder really is leading to results, and that's giving us much improved optimism.

    一個月的時間不足以做出確切的判斷,但鑑於我們看到這些舉措在轉化漏斗頂端和營收方面都取得了成功,我們感到樂觀。因此,我們預計第二季營收將比第一季有所成長。這顯示BK和Tinder團隊所做的工作確實取得了成效,也讓我們對未來充滿信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的Ygal Arounian。

  • Ygal Arounian - Research Analyst

    Ygal Arounian - Research Analyst

  • Just to continue on Tinder, on the product road map, and I want to focus on the product side, not the monetization here. Can you talk about what are the most important products on the road map? Maybe take some time to hit on the women's experience more specifically as well.

    繼續聊Tinder,關於產品路線圖,我想重點談談產品本身,而不是獲利模式。能談談路線圖上最重要的產品是什麼嗎?或許還可以更具體地談談女性用戶的體驗。

  • How much lift is there on that to get on par with the competing dating apps? And thinking about some of the commentary in the letter pointing to users that are trying to drive other uses of the third-party apps and how that's been impacting the experience on Tinder.

    要達到與競爭對手約會應用程式相同的水平,還有多少提升空間?也要考慮信中提到的一些評論,這些評論指出用戶試圖推動第三方應用的其他用途,以及這如何影響了Tinder的用戶體驗。

  • Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

    Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

  • Thanks for the question, Ygal. Gary mentioned our recent momentum that we've seen over the last month, and that's been really exciting for us. But what I wanted to jump in a little bit about is like our journey, because we had a bit of a start, stop and then start again.

    謝謝你的提問,Ygal。 Gary提到了我們最近一個月取得的良好勢頭,這讓我們非常興奮。但我更想談談我們的發展歷程,因為我們經歷了一段起起伏伏、停滯不前,然後又重新開始的歷程。

  • Jumping in, I actually thought we could have moved a lot faster, but we're really diligent around setting up a stable and solid culture with the team. And what I wanted to do was really get the team focused and reduce some of the distractions. In doing that, we had to galvanize the organization around a clear road map. And this can be challenging to do with a lot of creative and technologists that have a lot of great swirling ideas.

    一開始,我其實覺得我們可以進展得更快,但我們一直致力於為團隊打造穩定穩固的企業文化。我真正想做的是讓團隊集中精力,減少干擾。為此,我們必須讓整個組織圍繞著一個清晰的路線圖團結起來。而對於一群充滿創意和技術、想法天馬行空的團隊成員來說,這並非易事。

  • But for us to do that, our CPO came up with this concept around 3 Rs: relevancy, realness and respect, and creating experiences within our ecosystem and our platform that ensure that our daters are having a rewarding experience within Tinder every single day.

    但為了實現這一點,我們的首席產品長提出了圍繞 3R 的概念:相關性、真實性和尊重,並在我們的生態系統和平台內創造體驗,以確保我們的約會者每天都能在 Tinder 上獲得有益的體驗。

  • When you're asking me to kind of pick the most important features, it's actually hard to do that with our road map because everything is intertwined, and there's been a lot of thought about how these features go against one another and how they work together. But I guess I can maybe highlight 3 of those features.

    當你讓我挑選最重要的功能時,實際上很難在我們的產品路線圖中做出選擇,因為所有功能都相互關聯,而且我們已經深入思考過這些功能之間的相互影響以及它們如何協同工作。但我或許可以重點介紹其中的三個功能。

  • One of the features that I look forward to us rolling out more broadly is called [Just For You]. This is a feature that was designed from the ground up based on in-depth research that we have to create matches with features and people that matter most to women. What we want to do is deliver great matches, so women have a good experience. And when women have a good experience, that will lead to men having a better experience as well. I believe that Just For You will lead to better matches, conversations and hopefully real-life meetings.

    我非常期待我們能更廣泛地推廣一項名為「為你推薦」(Just For You)的功能。這項功能是我們基於深入的研究從零開始設計的,旨在為女性使用者匹配她們最重視的特質和人脈。我們希望提供優質的配對服務,讓女性用戶擁有良好的體驗。而當女性使用者擁有良好的體驗時,男性使用者也會獲得更好的體驗。我相信「為你推薦」功能將帶來更優質的匹配、更深入的交流,並有望促成線下見面。

  • When it comes to platform health, we are very focused on maintaining the quality of the user experience and the user base, and this gets to realness. We want to utilize our technology and scale and policies to eliminate bad actors and spammers from our platform. And we've started those efforts today, and we're grinding through that throughout the year. And this is, I think, going to lead to a healthier ecosystem, will lead to better experiences and better revenue for us as well.

    在平台健康方面,我們非常注重維護使用者體驗和使用者群體的質量,這關乎真實性。我們希望利用我們的技術、規模和政策,清除平台上的不良用戶和垃圾郵件發送者。我們今天已經啟動了這項工作,並將持續推進全年。我認為,這將建構一個更健康的生態系統,帶來更好的使用者體驗,同時也能為我們帶來更高的效益。

  • Another product that I'm personally really excited about is the high-end member experience that is currently in development. We have a great team working on this. This product set is compelling and I think will actually tap a new experience within Tinder. We're going to offer experiences for users to find the right matches faster in a fun way with less effort. I'm really looking forward to that rolling out this year.

    我個人非常期待的另一款產品是目前正在開發的高端會員體驗。我們有一個很棒的團隊負責這項工作。這套產品極具吸引力,我認為它將為 Tinder 帶來全新的體驗。我們將為使用者提供更輕鬆、更有趣的方式,幫助他們更快找到合適的配對對象。我非常期待它在今年推出。

  • I've spent my career working with product teams, and I think that we did the right things to build the right foundation, and we're starting to see that momentum really hunt over the last couple months as our product velocity has increased dramatically from where we were at this time last year. Thanks for the question.

    我職業生涯的大部分時間都在與產品團隊合作,我認為我們採取了正確的措施來建立正確的基礎,而且在過去的幾個月裡,我們開始看到這種勢頭真正發揮作用,我們的產品迭代速度比去年同期有了顯著提升。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的傑森·赫爾夫斯坦。

  • Jason Stuart Helfstein - MD & Senior Internet Analyst

    Jason Stuart Helfstein - MD & Senior Internet Analyst

  • So can you talk about the Tinder price testing in a bit more detail, why you feel confident that this is the right move strategically? I completely understand about the weekly, but the idea of just like the price increase at the kind of the longer-term plans, more premium. And then you used the word additional color on what significant meant. And then just secondly, more for housekeeping, but how are you thinking about -- specifically about second half Tinder net adds?

    那麼,您能否更詳細地談談 Tinder 的價格測試,以及您為何確信這是正確的策略舉措?我完全理解您每週的定價策略,但更長期的付費計劃,尤其是高級計劃,價格上漲的想法我不太明白。您也用了「進一步解釋」這個詞,進一步闡述了「顯著」的意思。其次,還有一些其他問題,您是如何考慮下半年 Tinder 淨成長的?

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Sure. Let me jump in and take that, Jason. I know this is getting a lot of attention. And so I want to try to explain kind of the philosophy behind what's going on at Tinder, because it's not just a case of random price testing here and there.

    當然。讓我來回答這個問題,傑森。我知道這件事引起了很多關注。所以我想試著解釋一下Tinder背後的理念,因為這不僅僅是隨意進行價格測試那麼簡單。

  • Really what Tinder has done is embarked on a comprehensive strategy around pricing and optimizing their business, which is something that really should be happening on a regular basis, but hadn't been happening until a couple of quarters ago. And really now they've thoughtfully gone through pricing strategy. And we talked a little bit about this in previous quarters, where we think through discounts and offers and things like that, that have existed, to try to determine whether those make sense from a long-term value perspective.

    實際上,Tinder 真正做的是圍繞定價和業務優化製定了一套全面的策略,這本應是他們日常工作的一部分,但直到幾個季度前才開始真正著手。現在,他們已經認真地審視了定價策略。我們在之前的幾個季度也討論過這個問題,我們會重新審視現有的折扣和優惠等措施,以確定它們從長遠價值的角度來看是否合理。

  • And we've looked at some of those programs and have eliminated them, because we didn't think they made sense from a long-term value perspective. So you saw some impact on Payers going back to last year, and that continued in the first quarter as Tinder continued to rationalize and optimize. So that was kind of the first piece of it that I want to make sure people understand. And as I said, it's part of a much more comprehensive and well-thought-through strategy that Tinder is actually very good, and the company generally is very good at thinking through.

    我們已經審查並取消了一些項目,因為從長遠價值的角度來看,我們認為它們並不合理。所以,從去年開始,付費用戶就受到了一些影響,而隨著 Tinder 繼續合理化和優化,這種影響在第一季仍在持續。這是我首先想讓大家理解的部分。正如我所說,這只是 Tinder 精心策劃的更全面、更周密策略的一部分,而 Tinder 在這方面確實做得非常出色,而且這家公司通常都很擅長深思熟慮。

  • And so now here in the first quarter, at the very end of the first quarter, we've looked at pricing in all the different geographies where Tinder operates, and we believe that the prices that Tinder offers are well below the competitors, well below market. And so there's room to increase price in certain spots. And we've tested variance to see what will be revenue maximizing. Because what I've talked about many times is we're not focused on a specific KPI, whether it's Payers or RPP and driving those, we want to maximize overall revenue at Tinder.

    因此,在第一季末,我們已經審視了Tinder在所有營運地區的定價,並認為Tinder目前的價格遠低於競爭對手和市場平均。因此,在某些地區還有漲價空間。我們也測試了不同的定價策略,以確定哪些策略能夠最大化收入。因為我多次強調,我們並不專注於某個特定的關鍵績效指標(KPI),無論是付費用戶數還是每用戶平均收入(RPP),我們的目標是最大化Tinder的整體收入。

  • And so we tested various levels in the U.S. in Q1. We've settled on a level to roll out, and that's going to have effect on Q2 Payers overall as we roll that through the system. And now we've expanded those price tests into 4 additional geographies: Canada, the U.K., Australia and Japan, so 4 important geographies for Tinder. And we don't know exactly what variants are going to make the most sense, are going to maximize revenue in those geographies, so we're going to test again.

    因此,我們在第一季在美國測試了不同的價格水平。我們最終確定了一個要推廣的價格水平,這將對第二季所有付費用戶產生影響,因為我們會將該價格水平推廣到整個系統中。現在,我們將價格測試擴展到了另外四個地區:加拿大、英國、澳洲和日本,這四個地區對 Tinder 來說都非常重要。我們目前還不清楚哪些價格方案最合適,能夠最大化這些地區的收入,所以我們會再次進行測試。

  • But if you assume that the same kind of variant prevails in those geographies that prevailed in the U.S., we expect to see as the year rolls on, additional impact on conversion and Payers from that change in price. But again, it will be revenue maximizing. And so the fact that the changes that we've made in the U.S. appear to be working and appear to be driving incremental revenue, we expect the same thing in these other geographies. That's giving us confidence in incremental revenue for Q2 and into Q3 for Tinder, but there will be corresponding negative effects on the Payers numbers through those quarters. It depends on what variants prevail to determine what significant means. But obviously, there's an inverse correlation between the price and the impact on Payers.

    但假設其他地區也存在與美國相同的價格變體,我們預期隨著時間的推移,價格變化會對轉換率和付費用戶數量產生進一步影響。但同樣,這最終將實現收入最大化。鑑於我們在美國做出的調整似乎行之有效,並推動了收入成長,我們預計其他地區也會如此。這讓我們對 Tinder 第二季和第三季的營收成長充滿信心,但相應的,付費用戶數量也會受到這些季度的負面影響。至於「顯著」的影響程度,則取決於哪些價格變體最終佔據主導地位。但顯然,價格與付費用戶數量的影響之間存在著反比關係。

  • And what I can tell you is I think as this all washes through the system late in the year. We think that we'll see a significant improvement in sequential Payers at Tinder. And so we need to have all of these pricing changes play out, these optimizations play out. And once we do that, the business will be where it should have been, and ultimately, will return back to sort of a more normal cadence of Payer net adds.

    我可以告訴大家的是,我認為隨著這些措施在年底逐步落實,Tinder 的付費用戶數量將會顯著提升。因此,我們需要讓所有這些定價調整和優化措施都發揮作用。一旦這些措施到位,業務就能恢復到應有的水平,最終,付費用戶淨成長的節奏也會回歸到較正常的水平。

  • So hopefully, that's helpful to give people a better understanding of what's going on. And this is a project that's never going to truly finish. So there's a big bulk of work that's a little bit of catch-up. But ultimately, on a regular basis, we need to be optimizing price. We need to be thinking through the dynamics in these markets, and Tinder is going to do so going forward.

    希望這能幫助大家更了解狀況。這個專案永遠不會真正結束,還有很多工作要做,需要追趕進度。但歸根究底,我們需要定期優化價格,需要深入思考這些市場的動態變化,而Tinder未來也會這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Dan Salmon with New Street Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自新街研究公司的丹·薩爾蒙。

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Dan, are you there? We can't hear you.

    丹,你在嗎?我們聽不到你的聲音。

  • Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst

    Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst

  • There you go. Sorry about that. Can you hear me now?

    好了。不好意思。現在能聽到我說話了嗎?

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • We can.

    我們可以。

  • Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst

    Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Good stuff. So I just wanted to ask a little bit more about Tinder's brand campaign. It sounds like you're happy with the early returns on it. Maybe can you talk a little bit more about where it goes from here? You mentioned expanding it into new markets, but is regular marketing support of this nature something you see as an ongoing thing, does the brand need to be supported regularly? Happy with the creative, is there -- are there any iterations coming along those lines?

    好的,不錯。我想再多問一些關於Tinder品牌推廣活動的問題。聽起來您對目前的成果很滿意。您能否再談談接下來的發展方向?您提到要拓展到新市場,但您認為這種類型的常規行銷支援是需要持續進行的嗎?品牌是否需要定期保養?您對目前的創意效果滿意嗎?接下來會有什麼迭代更新嗎?

  • And maybe if I can just slip in one more to Gary. Obviously, the Board made a fairly significant change in making a commitment to return 50% of free cash flow every year. And obviously, buybacks are going to be a big part of that. Maybe just one quick one, are you considering a dividend?

    或許我可以再問加里一個問題。董事會做出了一個相當重要的改變,承諾每年返還50%的自由現金流。顯然,股票回購將是其中的重要組成部分。最後再問一個問題,你們有考慮過派發股息嗎?

  • Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

    Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

  • Great. Thanks so much, Dan, for the question. I'll handle the first part, and Gary can handle the second part of the question. First, I want to thank you for asking that question around the marketing campaign, because we have a fantastic team that has been working really hard to get this campaign out in the marketplace.

    太好了。丹,非常感謝你的提問。我來回答第一部分,加里可以回答第二部分。首先,我要感謝你提出關於行銷活動的問題,因為我們有一個非常棒的團隊,他們一直在努力讓這個活動順利推向市場。

  • One of the observations that I made upon joining Tinder and leading that organization is that historically, we've relied too much on virality of the app to spread in the marketplace. We have not invested enough in that brand narrative. And that narrative has kind of taken its own story.

    我加入 Tinder 並領導團隊後發現,過去我們過度依賴應用程式的病毒式傳播來拓展市場,而對品牌故事的投入不足。結果,品牌故事本身也逐漸演變成一種獨特的敘事方式。

  • And that's why this team that we put in place went in with a tremendous amount of passion and energy and speed. And the idea that it all starts with a swipe really tells this story around the multiple different possibilities that can come from jumping into Tinder first time or jumping in the second time and the great experiences that come from that.

    正因如此,我們組建的這支團隊才如此充滿熱情、活力和速度地投入工作。而「一切始於一次滑動」的概念,也恰如其分地詮釋了初次或第二次使用 Tinder 所帶來的種種可能性,以及由此產生的精彩體驗。

  • Now this is a multi-staged approach, and the goal of the campaign initially is to drive brand perception. So the good news around that is we're actually starting to see really strong early momentum, specifically with the market that we're targeting, women ages 18 to 24. And we've seen increases of over 3 points in both brand consideration as well as intent. That's great progress, just knowing that we're a couple of months in and we're in major markets here in the United States and in the U.K. I personally see it all over Los Angeles, especially in my commute from Manhattan Beach over to the Tinder headquarters.

    這是一個多階段的行銷策略,初期目標是提升品牌認知。好消息是,我們已經開始看到非常強勁的早期勢頭,尤其是在我們瞄準的18至24歲女性市場。品牌知名度和購買意願都提升了3個百分點以上。考慮到我們才開展幾個月,而且已經涵蓋了美國和英國的主要市場,這樣的進展非常顯著。我個人在洛杉磯到處都能看到我們的廣告,尤其是從曼哈頓海灘通勤到Tinder總部的路上。

  • Now as Gary has said, we've started to see some really strong improvement in top of funnel, so that's great to see as well. But this is the first stage. So what we're starting off is building that positive brand platform, which we then can build upon as our marketing teams are working super closely with our product team. And then down the road, I'm really excited about those next stages of the campaign, which can describe more of our product features and what that means for the overall community in Tinder.

    正如 Gary 所說,我們已經看到轉換漏斗頂端出現了非常顯著的改善,這令人欣喜。但這只是第一階段。我們現在著手打造積極的品牌平台,之後,我們的行銷團隊將與產品團隊緊密合作,並在此基礎上繼續發展。展望未來,我對接下來的行銷活動階段充滿期待,這些階段將更詳細地介紹我們的產品功能,以及這些功能對 Tinder 社群的整體意義。

  • We expect that the long-term effects of these campaigns will be to improve, a, brand perception; and then accelerate downloads and registrations. Gary, do you want to take the second part?

    我們預期這些活動的長期效果將是:首先,提升品牌知名度;其次,加速下載量和註冊量的成長。加里,你想參加第二部分嗎?

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Sure. On capital allocation, as we talk about in the letter, the company generates a significant amount of cash flow, and we don't want to just build cash on the balance sheet for the sake of building cash on the balance sheet. We want to return it to shareholders. And so it's our responsibility to look with our Board of Directors at all of the tools that are available to return capital to shareholders, which really includes dividends and buybacks.

    當然。關於資本配置,正如我們在信中提到的,公司會產生大量現金流,我們不想為了增加資產負債表上的現金而增加現金。我們希望將這些現金回饋給股東。因此,我們有責任與董事會一起研究所有可用的返還資本工具,其中包括分紅和股票回購。

  • And so we're not going to rule anything out. The Board authorized a new large share buyback, and that's -- our plan is to implement that. But the world has evolved, valuations have evolved. We're not happy with where our stock price is. And to the extent that dividend makes sense at some point in the future, we're not afraid to consider that. So we'll look at all the tools. We constantly evaluate them. And we'll see kind of what we think makes the most sense as a way to return the capital to shareholders. So that's our thinking on capital allocation.

    因此,我們不會排除任何可能性。董事會已批准一項新的大規模股票回購計劃,而我們的計劃正是實施這項計劃。但世界在變化,估值也在變化。我們對目前的股價並不滿意。如果未來某個時候派發股息是合理的,我們也會考慮。因此,我們會研究所有可行的方案,並持續評估它們。我們會找到最適合的方式將資本回饋給股東。這就是我們對資本配置的思考。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

  • Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

    Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

  • Could you please talk about Hinge? You're guiding to $400 million in annual revenues. You're reiterating your guide. How should we think about Hinge's sustainable growth and margin profile as an asset? And what gives you confidence that Hinge and Tinder both can grow concurrently?

    能談談Hinge嗎?您預測其年營收將達到4億美元,並且您重申了這項預測。我們該如何看待Hinge的可持續成長和利潤率狀況?您又是如何確信Hinge和Tinder能夠同時成長的?

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Sure. Let me take that one. Thanks, Shweta. What I would say, first of all, on Hinge, obviously, we're very pleased with the traction that the brand has. And by that, I mean a couple of things. First of all, its resonance, its ability to resonate in markets outside of core English-speaking markets, that's something that was not assured. And when we go into a market like France, which is different than a market like Germany culturally, and the fact that the brand resonates and gets organic traction in both markets, that's really encouraging and tells you that the brand really has the ability to expand around the world.

    當然。讓我來回答這個問題。謝謝,Shweta。首先,關於Hinge,我們顯然對品牌的發展動能非常滿意。我的意思是,有兩點值得肯定。首先,它的影響力,它在核心英語市場以外的市場也能引起共鳴,這一點之前並沒有十足的把握。當我們進入像法國這樣文化上與德國截然不同的市場時,品牌在這兩個市場都能引起共鳴並獲得自然增長,這真的令人鼓舞,也表明該品牌確實有能力在全球範圍內擴張。

  • And the fact that the brand has significant organic traction in a market like India, which is obviously very different than France or Germany or any other European market without any marketing or other efforts by Hinge in that market, that's a very encouraging sign for global expansion as well. So that's the first point. And we really do believe that the product experience at Hinge as well as their brand story around design to be deleted are both really resonating with users, and that's really a critical fact.

    品牌在印度這樣的市場取得了顯著的自然增長,這顯然與法國、德國或其他歐洲市場截然不同,而且Hinge在這些市場並沒有進行任何營銷或其他努力,這對於其全球擴張來說是一個非常令人鼓舞的信號。這是第一點。我們堅信,Hinge的產品體驗以及其圍繞「設計待刪除」的品牌故事都引起了用戶的強烈共鳴,這一點至關重要。

  • The other thing I would point out is that Hinge is very early in its monetization journey. It's got a lot of runway on monetization. It's got a lot of runway globally on user growth. So it still has a lot to do and a lot of runway, and we're focused on capturing that and it's just really a matter of time for all that to happen.

    我想指出的另一點是,Hinge 的獲利之路還處於非常早期的階段。它在盈利方面還有很大的發展空間。在全球範圍內,它的用戶成長也還有很大的潛力。所以它還有很多工作要做,發展空間也很大,我們專注於抓住這些機遇,而這一切的實現只是時間問題。

  • So when you factor that all together in terms of kind of what do we think that means from a numbers perspective, we think that Hinge can maintain growth rates around what it's going to do this year on a percentage basis and drive to be a $1 billion-plus revenue business over the next few years, if you look at, let's say, a 4-, 5-year plan. And I think it can do that by making the right levels of investments over the next few years in international expansion, just as we're doing in Europe this year.

    所以,綜合所有因素,從數字角度來看,我們認為Hinge能夠維持今年預期的成長率,並在未來幾年內,例如製定一個4到5年的發展計劃,成為一家年收入超過10億美元的企業。我認為,Hinge可以透過在未來幾年內對國際擴張進行適度的投資來實現這一目標,就像我們今年在歐洲所做的那樣。

  • And so I think that, that will put some pressure on margins at Hinge over the next couple of years as the growth continues to be very strong. And then gradually, the business will get to a level of margin that's more consistent with the overall company level of margins. And so we're looking forward to seeing that kind of financial performance out of Hinge.

    因此,我認為,未來幾年,隨著Hinge持續強勁成長,其利潤率將面臨一定壓力。但隨後,其利潤率將逐步達到與公司整體利潤率水準更為一致的水準。我們期待看到Hinge取得這樣的財務表現。

  • We took a lot of effort in the shareholder letter to talk about how we think there's ample opportunity for both Tinder and Hinge to grow at the same time and that we think the cannibalistic effects of Tinder on Hinge -- sorry, of Hinge on Tinder are not as much as people may think. So I'm not going to reiterate all that there.

    我們在致股東信中花了大量篇幅闡述我們認為Tinder和Hinge都有充足的成長空間,並且我們認為Tinder對Hinge(抱歉,應該是Hinge對Tinder)的蠶食效應並沒有人們想像的那麼嚴重。所以我就不再贅述了。

  • But I will just emphasize something that we said in the letter, which is important to understand, which is that the product experience at Tinder and Hinge are different, and the brand ethos of Tinder and Hinge are different, and consumers understand that. And some consumers prefer one to the other, but many, especially young users, use both because they use them for different purposes, and they like certain aspects of one and certain aspects of the other.

    但我只想強調我們在信中提到的一點,這一點很重要,那就是Tinder和Hinge的產品體驗不同,品牌理念也不同,消費者都明白這一點。有些消費者喜歡其中一個,但很多消費者,尤其是年輕用戶,會同時使用這兩個平台,因為他們使用它們的目的不同,而且他們喜歡其中一個平台的某些方面,也喜歡另一個平台的某些方面。

  • And so all of that tells us that we can grow Hinge and Tinder simultaneously, and that the overall impact of having both of those brands in a given market is accretive to Match Group's overall growth, much like we're seeing in the French market with some of the data that we've provided in the shareholder letter. So hopefully, that gives you some color to your questions.

    因此,所有這些都表明我們可以同時發展 Hinge 和 Tinder,並且在特定市場同時擁有這兩個品牌會對 Match Group 的整體成長產生增益作用,就像我們在致股東信中提供的一些數據所顯示的法國市場的情況一樣。希望這些能解答您的疑問。

  • Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

    Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

  • Yes, that's helpful.

    是的,這很有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen.

    下一個問題來自考恩公司的約翰·布萊克利奇。

  • John Ryan Blackledge - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    John Ryan Blackledge - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I thought there was interesting color in the shareholder letter on Tinder's paying user opportunity in North America, in Europe in the 18-to-34 demo. Given Tinder's recent paying user growth challenges, what do you see as kind of key drivers of getting both the lapsed and/or never-been users to the platform? And as a follow-up, it feels like what you laid out implies there's ample runway over time for further Tinder Payer -- paying user growth.

    我認為股東信中關於Tinder在北美和歐洲18至34歲年齡層付費用戶成長機會的論述很有意思。鑑於Tinder近期在付費用戶成長方面面臨的挑戰,您認為哪些關鍵因素能夠吸引流失用戶和/或從未註冊過的用戶重返平台?另外,您剛才的論述似乎暗示Tinder的付費用戶成長空間依然充足。

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Sure. Thanks, John. So it's important to understand that reactivating lapsed users at Tinder has always been one of its key components of growth and something that they've actually been very good at historically. And as you point out, and we said in the letter, there's a very large pool of lapsed users for Tinder to go ahead and reactivate.

    當然。謝謝你,約翰。所以,我們需要明白,對於 Tinder 來說,重新啟動流失用戶一直是其成長的關鍵組成部分之一,而且他們在這方面一直做得非常出色。正如你所指出的,我們也在信中提到過,Tinder 擁有龐大的流失用戶群體,可以著手重新激活他們。

  • But what we've seen in the last few quarters is that the Tinder product experience has not met some users' expectations. Tinder's ability to reactivate those lapsed users has declined as well. So if you put it kind of simply, Tinder hasn't given lapsed users enough reason to come back to the product.

    但我們在過去幾季看到的情況是,Tinder的產品體驗並未達到部分用戶的預期。 Tinder重新啟動流失用戶的能力也有所下降。簡而言之,Tinder沒有給流失用戶足夠的理由讓他們回歸。

  • And so as the team, led by BK, improves the product experience, we're optimistic that Tinder's success rate in reactivating these lapsed users will also increase. And we can really say the same thing for attracting new users as well, is that as the product experience and the brand narrative improve, Tinder should do a better job of attracting new users.

    因此,隨著BK領導的團隊不斷改進產品體驗,我們樂觀地認為,Tinder重新啟動流失用戶的成功率也會隨之提高。同樣,在吸引新用戶方面,隨著產品體驗和品牌故事的提升,Tinder也應該能夠更好地吸引新用戶。

  • Now obviously, it's much easier to re-attract a lapsed user who's used the product before than someone new who's never tried it. But Tinder has to succeed on both fronts, attracting lapsed users and new users to achieve the level of growth in terms of overall user growth that we think Tinder needs to achieve. So it needs to push on both fronts and accomplish that.

    顯然,重新吸引曾經使用過該產品的流失用戶比吸引從未嘗試過的新用戶要容易得多。但Tinder必須在吸引流失用戶和吸引新用戶這兩個方面都取得成功,才能達到我們認為Tinder需要達到的整體用戶成長水準。因此,它需要在兩個方面都全力以赴,並最終實現這一目標。

  • But as you said, and the letter again makes clear, there's a big pool of lapsed users in the developed markets, Europe, North America, for Tinder to go and reactivate. And there's a really big pool of never-tried users in other geographies in APAC and the rest of the world that have never tried Tinder. So there's ample runway for growth, both in terms of reactivating the lapsed users and also attracting first-time users that Tinder can go. And it's really just a question of product and brand execution to really achieve the level of user growth that we would like to see at Tinder.

    正如您所說,信中也再次明確指出,已開發市場(如歐洲和北美)存在大量流失用戶,Tinder 可以著手重新啟動這些用戶。此外,亞太地區和世界其他地區也存在大量從未嘗試過 Tinder 的用戶。因此,Tinder 在用戶成長方面擁有充足的空間,既可以重新激活流失用戶,也可以吸引新用戶。而能否真正實現我們期望的用戶成長水平,關鍵在於產品和品牌執行力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的勞倫·申克。

  • Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst

    Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe just one on Hinge. As we think about international expansion, I think you're now in all the major markets in Europe, how are you thinking about second half expansion? Any thoughts or timing around when the app might enter Asia, understanding those markets are still a little bit difficult right now.

    或許只在Hinge上推出一個。說到國際擴張,我想你們現在已經進入了歐洲所有主要市場,那麼你們是如何考慮下半年的擴張計畫的呢?有沒有關於應用何時進入亞洲市場的想法或時間表?目前要了解亞洲市場仍有些困難。

  • Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

    Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Lauren, for the question. I'm really excited about Hinge's performance. Like Gary mentioned, we're on track to hit 400 million this year, and that's incredible from where we started with Hinge joining the family just 5 years ago.

    謝謝Lauren的提問。我對Hinge的表現感到非常興奮。正如Gary所提到的,我們今年有望達到4億美元的營收目標,考慮到Hinge五年前才加入我們,這真是令人難以置信。

  • The progress that Hinge have made so far has been fantastic. But Hinge international expansion continues to be one of my top priorities for this year. When we go into these markets, we don't just localize the apps, but we actually culturalize these apps and make the experience what makes sense for daters in each of these individual markets. That also extends across our marketing message. So to use a European term, we do a bespoked approach of going to market, but also entrenching ourselves in these markets as well.

    Hinge迄今的進展令人矚目。但Hinge的國際擴張仍然是我今年的首要任務之一。當我們進入這些市場時,我們不僅會進行應用在地化,還會進行文化適應性調整,使應用程式體驗更符合每個市場用戶的喜好。這一點也體現在我們的行銷訊息中。所以,用歐洲的說法,我們採取的是一種客製化的市場進入策略,同時也致力於在這些市場站穩腳步。

  • So our plan this year is to establish Hinge across Europe as the intentioned dating app. It's really important for us that we continue on this steady path throughout the year. We are in most markets today but we have a lot more work to do, and that's going to unveil itself over the next year. We're actually going to consider new markets outside of Europe in 2024, but we're focused on Europe in 2023. Thanks for the question, Lauren.

    所以我們今年的計畫就是把Hinge打造成歐洲首選的約會應用程式。對我們來說,全年保持穩定發展至關重要。目前我們已經進入了大部分市場,但還有很多工作要做,這些工作將在未來一年逐步展開。我們計劃在2024年考慮進軍歐洲以外的新市場,但2023年我們的重心將放在歐洲。謝謝你的提問,Lauren。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷珊卓·施泰格。

  • Alexandra Christine Kasper Steiger - Research Analyst

    Alexandra Christine Kasper Steiger - Research Analyst

  • So in the context of your Q2 revenue guide, which anticipates low single-digit growth, can you give us a bit more color on how we should think about the building blocks of your updated '23 revenue guide? What are the different assumptions that went into the guide initially? And how did these evolve since the last update? And then lastly, what are some potential areas of upside or downside when thinking through '23 revenue growth?

    鑑於您第二季營收預期為個位數低成長,您能否更詳細地解釋一下您更新後的2023年營收預期是如何建構的?最初的預期是基於哪些假設?自上次更新以來,這些假設又發生了哪些變化?最後,在展望2023年營收成長時,有哪些潛在的成長或下降空間?

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Sure. I'll take that one. So as we talked about in the letter, we're confident that we're going to get to Q4 Tinder Direct Revenue growth and total company revenue growth rates year-over-year in the double digits. It's still a little early to pinpoint exactly what level in there because we're only at the beginning of May. There's a lot of initiatives in flight, a lot of momentum building in the business. So we really need to see a little bit more how things are going to play out. But obviously, April has been encouraging, as I talked about. And so we feel good about the potential for exit rates in Q4.

    當然,我接受這個提議。正如我們在信中提到的,我們有信心第四季Tinder直接營收和公司總營收的年比成長率都能達到兩位數。現在要準確預測具體數字還為時過早,因為才五月初。公司有很多項目正在進行中,業務發展勢頭強勁。所以我們還需要觀察一下實際情況。但正如我之前提到的,四月的業績令人鼓舞。因此,我們對第四季的預期成長率充滿信心。

  • And so if you look at kind of what we achieved in Q1, you look at what our outlook is for Q2 and then what we think is going to happen by Q4 and you extrapolate Q3 to get there, you end up with a growth rate overall of around 5-or-so percent, sort of in that neighborhood.

    因此,如果你看看我們在第一季的成就,再看看我們對第二季度的展望,以及我們認為第四季度將會發生什麼,然後根據第三季度的情況進行推斷,最終你會得出整體增長率在 5% 左右,大致在這個範圍內。

  • The biggest swing factor, which I'm sure is apparent to you and to others as well, is really what's going to happen in terms of the Tinder trajectory. The marketing campaign, the momentum at the top of the funnel as well as all the revenue initiatives that we have in place are really going to determine where exactly we land for the full year growth rate and certainly, the Q4 exit rate. So that's really the big swing factor. And we've given, I think, a lot of color on what we're seeing and what gives us confidence in where we're going.

    最大的變數,我相信你和其他人也都明白,就是Tinder的發展軌跡。行銷活動、漏斗頂端的動能以及我們所有已實施的營收計劃,都將最終決定我們全年的成長率,當然還有第四季的退出率。所以,這才是真正的關鍵。我認為,我們已經詳細闡述了我們目前觀察到的情況,以及讓我們對未來充滿信心的原因。

  • The other thing that we're monitoring is the macro environment, which I mentioned is having impact on a la carte at Tinder, which is a reasonably significant component of its revenue. And right now we're not seeing any big movement one way or the other in terms of our expectations on what's actually happening a la carte.

    我們關注的另一件事是宏觀環境,正如我之前提到的,它對Tinder的單點付費服務產生了影響,而單點付費服務在其收入中佔比相當大。目前,就我們對單點付費服務實際發展的預期而言,我們還沒有看到任何大的波動。

  • So our trajectory for the year assumes that a la carte kind of continues the way it's been with not modest major swings up or down. That is a potential swing factor or a change in assumption. But right now, we don't see any evidence that our assumptions around a la carte are inappropriate. And so that's all, I think, properly baked into our outlook at this point. So those are the things that we're watching as the year progresses.

    因此,我們今年的發展軌跡假設點餐服務將延續目前的模式,不會大幅波動。這或許是個潛在的波動因素,或者說是我們假設的改變。但目前,我們還沒有發現任何證據顯示我們對點餐服務的假設是不恰當的。所以,我認為這些因素都已適當地納入了我們目前的展望中。接下來,我們將密切關注這些方面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的班傑明·布萊克。

  • Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst

  • Just pivoting to costs, where you obviously reiterated the guide for AOI margins to be at least flat in '23. So if we look beyond app store fee changes, what are the major swing factors that could drive upside or downside there? Is there room to tighten up the cost structure any further? And how should we be thinking about the trade-off between revenue growth and expense moderation at the legacy brands? What's sort of baked into your outlook there?

    接下來我們來談談成本問題。您顯然重申了2023年AOI利潤率至少要保持持平的預期。那麼,如果我們拋開應用程式商店費用的變化不談,還有哪些主要因素可能導致利潤率的上升或下降?成本結構還有進一步收緊的空間嗎?對於傳統品牌,我們應該如何權衡收入成長和成本控制之間的關係?您對此有何看法?

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Sure. So in terms of margins, first of all, we're committed to maintaining flat or better margins for the year. And so that is one of our guiding principles around this.

    當然。就利潤率而言,首先,我們致力於保持全年利潤率持平或更高。這是我們在這方面的指導原則之一。

  • I think the biggest swing factor for the year is what I just talked about with Alexandra's question, which is really around Tinder's trajectory. Tinder is a very high-margin business. And the more growth we get out of Tinder, the more higher margin we get out of Tinder, the more that's going to help improve the overall company margin. So that's the biggest swing factor. So obviously, driving growth at Tinder is job one.

    我認為今年最大的變數就是我剛才回答Alexandra的問題時提到的,也就是Tinder的發展軌跡。 Tinder是一家高利潤率的公司。 Tinder的成長越多,利潤率就越高,這就越有助於提高公司的整體利潤率。所以,這就是最大的變數。顯然,推動Tinder的成長是首要任務。

  • In terms of your question around cost savings, we are being very disciplined around cost, very thoughtful on the marketing side, on expenses generally. There's always more you can do, but our first goal is to drive revenue growth. And so we want to be thoughtful about the trade-offs generally between cost savings and revenue growth, and we're going to protect the ability to continue to grow revenue. Because as I said before, that really is job one within the confines of maintaining flat or better margins for the company for the full year.

    關於您提到的成本節約問題,我們在成本控制方面非常嚴格,在行銷和整體支出方面也格外謹慎。當然,我們還可以做得更多,但我們的首要目標是推動營收成長。因此,我們會認真權衡成本節約和營收成長之間的利弊,並確保營收持續成長。正如我之前所說,在公司全年維持或提高利潤率的前提下,這才是重中之重。

  • In terms of the trade-offs we're making at the Evergreen Brands, that is obviously a source of reducing marketing spend there to spend more at marketing at Tinder and Hinge. And as we see momentum in those businesses, it makes us want to spend more into those marketing efforts. And so we're trying to calibrate that, which is our job in terms of managing a portfolio.

    就我們目前在常青品牌方面所做的權衡而言,顯然這意味著要減少在這些品牌上的行銷支出,以便將更多資金投入 Tinder 和 Hinge 的行銷中。隨著這些業務的發展勢頭,我們也希望加大對它們的行銷投入。因此,我們正在努力平衡各方利益,這也是我們管理投資組合的職責所在。

  • Right now, I feel like our outlook for the year contemplates a sufficient level of marketing spend at the Evergreen Brands to maintain declines in those brands that are manageable and allow us to invest at the levels we feel we need to invest in at both Hinge, Tinder as well as some new initiatives like The League and the new app that we're talking about rolling out in the summer. So I think all of that is appropriately incorporated into our outlook for the year and leaves us with the ability to generate flat or better margins, as we've been saying.

    目前,我認為我們對今年的展望是,在常青品牌上投入足夠的營銷資金,足以應對這些品牌可控的下滑,並使我們能夠按預期水平投資於Hinge、Tinder以及一些新項目,例如The League和我們正在討論的夏季即將推出的新應用。因此,我認為所有這些都已適當地納入了我們的年度展望,並使我們能夠實現持平或更高的利潤率,正如我們一直所說的那樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Justin Patterson。

  • Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst

    Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst

  • Perhaps a multipart big-picture question. BK, you're not alone in saying AI is a meaningful platform shift like mobile. Match does have a solid history of navigating platform shifts, albeit with new brands often emerging and legacy brands slowing. Can you tease out how you think this can transform the dating experience and how it changes the opportunity set through the existing brands and some new ones you're incubating? Is this something you can build organically or acquire your way into? And then for Gary, how does AI change your expense profile over time?

    或許這是一個涉及多方面的大局問題。 BK,你並非唯一認為人工智慧像行動技術一樣對平台產生重大影響的人。 Match 在應對平台變革方面確實有著豐富的經驗,儘管新品牌不斷湧現,而老品牌的發展速度卻有所放緩。你能否詳細闡述一下,你認為人工智慧將如何改變約會體驗,以及它將如何透過現有品牌和一些正在孵化的新品牌來改變用戶機會?這是你們能夠自主發展還是透過收購來實現的?另外,對 Gary 來說,人工智慧將如何隨著時間的推移改變你們的支出結構?

  • Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

    Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

  • Great, Justin. I'll take the first part of that question. Look, I think the last couple of months had been super inspiring for me personally as well as our teams. We're aligned with our leadership team and our management team around AI that -- thinking that AI could be transformative to the total category.

    好的,賈斯汀。我先回答第一個問題。你看,我認為過去幾個月對我個人以及我們的團隊來說都非常鼓舞人心。我們與領導團隊和管理團隊在人工智慧方面達成了一致,認為人工智慧可以徹底改變整個產業。

  • The way that I guess I think about it is like -- is the dater experience and improving that dater experience by utilizing AI. Maybe we can like step through an experience of some of our daters are in our apps, and then they sometimes need help getting unstuck or thinking about, "How do I open up a conversation?" And usually, they'll phone a friend. And sometimes, that friend is not available.

    我的想法是,我們關注的是約會體驗,以及如何利用人工智慧來改善這種體驗。例如,我們可以模擬一些使用者在我們約會軟體上的體驗過程,他們有時會遇到一些難題,例如「我該如何開啟一段對話?」。通常情況下,他們會打電話給朋友求助。但有時,朋友又沒空。

  • Imagine that AI can instantaneously help instead, maybe helping and nudging people to pick great date ideas, opening up a conversation, how to like continue that conversation, in some cases, closing out a conversation and not ghosting someone in our apps. It's really still very early, but the team is focusing on how this can transform dating.

    想像一下,人工智慧可以即時提供幫助,例如引導人們選擇絕佳的約會地點,開啟對話,指導如何繼續交流,甚至在某些情況下,還能幫助結束對話,避免在約會軟體上突然消失。這項技術目前還處於早期階段,但團隊正致力於探索它如何革新約會方式。

  • But one thing that I do want to clarify is that I do not believe that AI can replace IRL dating. True human connections are core to our business, and we think that we can utilize AI to help people get together in the real world. We have a great team, including our new CTO, working on this, and we're embracing really new exciting ideas. We're really excited to present more updates to you all in the upcoming quarters. And we have to make some decisions around either we build, we buy or we partner, but it's still too early to say.

    但我確實想澄清一點,我不認為人工智慧可以取代現實生活中的約會。真正的人際關係是我們業務的核心,我們認為可以利用人工智慧來幫助人們在現實世界中相遇。我們有一個很棒的團隊,包括我們新的首席技術官,正在致力於此,我們正在積極探索一些令人興奮的新想法。我們非常期待在接下來的幾季中為大家帶來更多進展。我們也需要就自主研發、收購或合作等方案做出一些決定,但現在下結論還為時過早。

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Yes. And just picking up on that in terms of expenses, it is kind of early to say what is going to happen from AI in terms of expenses, just because we don't know exactly what kind of efforts are going to be needed. I would point out a couple of things.

    是的。說到費用方面,現在就斷言人工智慧會帶來哪些費用還為時過早,因為我們並不確切知道需要投入哪些資源。我想指出幾點。

  • Obviously, one, we're mindful that some of these areas of AI and the folks needed to undertake those efforts can be very expensive. And so we want to do this in a smart way. Certainly, we'll try to leverage outside vendors, third parties wherever we can. And I'm sure more and more of those are going to crop up. So we're not planning to build a massive team focused on these efforts and really balloon expenses as a result of that.

    顯然,我們很清楚人工智慧的某些領域以及進行這些工作所需的人員成本可能非常高。因此,我們希望以明智的方式進行。當然,我們會盡可能地利用外部供應商和第三方資源。我相信,未來將會有越來越多的這類資源湧現。所以我們並不打算組建一個龐大的團隊來專門負責這些工作,導致開支大幅膨脹。

  • I will also tell you that we have significant capabilities in this area already at Tinder as well as at Hyperconnect, so that we can leverage some of those capabilities. And certainly a place like Hyperconnect, where in Korea, these types of engineers are much more readily available and much less costly, gives us a good platform to expand those efforts. And so we're very mindful of trying to keep the expenses under control as we build out the AI efforts, and we'll leverage either outside parties or the capabilities we already have like the Hyperconnect business.

    我還要告訴大家,Tinder 和 Hyperconnect 在這方面已經具備相當強大的能力,我們可以充分利用這些能力。當然,像 Hyperconnect 這樣的平台,在韓國,這類工程師更容易找到,成本也更低,這為我們拓展這些工作提供了一個很好的平台。因此,我們在推進人工智慧專案的同時,非常注重控製成本,我們會利用外部資源或我們現有的能力,例如 Hyperconnect 的業務。

  • We probably have time for 1 or 2 more questions -- sorry, go ahead, operator.

    我們可能還有時間再回答一兩個問題——抱歉,請繼續,接線生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Brad Erickson with RBC.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的布拉德·埃里克森。

  • Bradley D. Erickson - Analyst

    Bradley D. Erickson - Analyst

  • Just a couple of follow-ups here. I think historically, the company had looked at some of these features geared for women and had largely, I guess, not really decided to pursue them. So I guess just what's changed? Maybe speak to any testing data from these early efforts to kind of reinforce the thesis there. And how do you think about payer penetration on that -- those products relative to Tinder overall?

    這裡還有幾個後續問題。我認為,從歷史來看,該公司之前也曾考慮過一些針對女性的功能,但似乎並沒有真正決定要推進。那麼,現在情況有什麼改變呢?能否分享一下早期測試的數據,以佐證我的觀點?另外,您如何看待這些產品的付費用戶滲透率——相對於 Tinder 整體而言?

  • And then I might have missed it from earlier, but just quickly on the free cash flow guide. I think that was a little bigger step down versus the revenue or EBITDA. So maybe just anything to call out there that's driving that, any comments on sort of general free cash conversion relative to EBITDA going forward.

    我可能之前漏掉了,但還是想快速提一下自由現金流指引。我認為它相對於營收或 EBITDA 的降幅略大。所以,有沒有什麼需要特別指出的,例如導致這一降幅的原因,或者對未來自由現金流與 EBITDA 轉換率的整體情況有什麼看法?

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • Sure. Why don't I take that, and I'll try to do it relatively quickly. Look, on the women's experience, I think maybe there's a little confusion around 2 things. Women's experience on dating apps has always been front and center and very important. It's important to attract and retain women, and that obviously helps attract and retain men. And so we've always been very focused on that aspect of the experience.

    當然。我這就去拿,我會盡量盡快處理。你看,關於女性用戶體驗,我覺得可能有兩點讓人有點困惑。女性在約會軟體上的體驗一直都是我們關注的重點,非常重要。吸引和留住女性用戶至關重要,而這顯然也有助於吸引和留住男性用戶。所以我們一直非常重視這方面的體驗。

  • That's a little different than women making the first move and things like that. What we're talking about really is the fundamental experience of women on the dating apps. Are they finding the people that they want to find? Are they treated respectfully? Those are the things that are really critical to women enjoying their experience on the app. And that's really what we're focused on and talking about.

    這和女性主動出擊之類的情況略有不同。我們真正討論的是女性在約會軟體上的基本體驗。她們能找到想找的人嗎?她們是否受到尊重?這些才是女性能否享受約會軟體體驗的關鍵。而這正是我們關注和討論的重點。

  • So it's not a Payers' thing. It's not a revenue thing in particular. That's not to say there won't be some levels of revenue associated with improving the women's experience. But we're talking about making the experience at Tinder, in particular, really something that women enjoy and come back for and seek out, and that's what we're trying to evolve. And that's going to be a large body of work over multiple quarters. It's not just one feature here or there.

    所以這不是付費用戶的問題,也不是單純為了獲利。當然,這並不意味著改善女性使用者體驗不會帶來一定程度的效益。但我們真正想做的,是讓Tinder的用戶體驗真正讓女性用戶感到愉悅,並願意再次使用,主動尋找它。這正是我們努力的方向。而這需要歷經多個季度的大量工作,並非一蹴可幾。

  • In terms of your question on free cash flow, we are becoming more and more of a cash taxpayer. So that might be something that people have underestimated. But I do think we're going to generate approximately $800 million this year, and I do think that number will increase over time. So there's a significant amount of free cash flow generation, which factors into our capital allocation policy.

    關於您提到的自由現金流問題,我們正逐漸成為現金稅企業。這或許是大家低估了的一點。但我認為我們今年將產生約8億美元的自由現金流,我認為這個數字還會隨著時間的推移而成長。因此,我們擁有相當可觀的自由現金流,這會影響我們的資本配置政策。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的科里·卡彭特。

  • Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst

    Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst

  • Gary, you touched on the app stores a bit in your prepared remarks, but hoping you could expand on your thoughts around some of the developments like the Epic and Apple's appeals or like Google's concessions in the U.K., et cetera and just what you think the potential impact could be to Match.

    Gary,你在準備好的演講稿中稍微提到了應用商店,但希望你能就一些發展情況展開談談你的看法,比如 Epic 和蘋果的上訴,或者谷歌在英國的讓步等等,以及你認為這些對 Match 可能產生的潛在影響。

  • Gary Swidler - President & CFO

    Gary Swidler - President & CFO

  • This is an important question, Cory, and they left you like 1 minute for me to answer it, but I'll do the best that I can. So look, there's been a lot of positive developments in terms of app store over the last 6 months in a lot of different jurisdictions. There's stuff going on in the Court systems in different places. There's stuff going on in the legislative process, and there's a lot of developments.

    科里,這是一個重要的問題,他們只留給我一分鐘時間回答,但我會盡力而為。你看,過去六個月裡,應用程式商店在許多不同地區都取得了許多正面的進展。各地的法院系統也正在進行一些改革。立法程序也在推進,總之有許多進展。

  • We'll be the first to admit that the progress in these areas are a lot slower than any of us would like. The wheels of justice turn slowly, is an expression for a reason. But ultimately, we think that we're going to get to a point where there's going to be meaningful changes to the app store ecosystem to make them more fair and to benefit consumers.

    我們首先要承認,這些領域的進展遠比我們任何人預期的要慢。 「正義的齒輪轉動緩慢」這句話並非空穴來風。但最終,我們相信應用商店生態系統終將迎來意義深遠的變革,變得更加公平,從而惠及消費者。

  • So you mentioned Epic-Apple. There's also been things going on in the U.K., CMA decision as well as other things in various markets that we think make it likely that developers will, at a minimum, be able to offer alternative payment systems to customers, which we think will result in improved conversion and also really enhance customer satisfaction. So we're looking forward to that.

    您提到了Epic與蘋果的合作。英國也發生了一些事情,例如CMA的決定,以及其他一些市場的情況,我們認為這些都使得開發者至少能夠為客戶提供多種支付方式,從而提高轉換率,並真正提升客戶滿意度。我們對此充滿期待。

  • In the EU and in some other jurisdictions like India, we think there's going to be changes that are going to result in app store fee changes as well, particularly as a result of the DMA in Europe or in the EU in 2024. So that's a big one to monitor, which I think people generally are aware of. I don't know specifically if this Epic-Apple case is going to result in app store fee relief, but it's very possible. It remains to be seen if that's going to lead ultimately to app store fee relief.

    在歐盟以及印度等其他一些地區,我們認為將會出現一些變化,這些變化也會導致應用商店費用的調整,尤其是在2024年歐洲或歐盟實施直接市場准入(DMA)之後。因此,這是一個需要密切關注的重要事件,我想大家對此也有所了解。我並不確定Epic Games與蘋果的這起案件是否會導致應用程式商店費用的降低,但這種可能性很高。最終是否真的會降低應用程式商店費用,還有待觀察。

  • And then when you sort of factor all this in with all these different changes and things going on in all these different jurisdictions, I think what it means is the app stores have to ask themselves a question, which is, are they going to respond to these changes in a piecemeal basis and have different policies and fee structures and approaches in different markets? Or are they going to have one global policy that addresses all of these really significant and valid concerns and change app store policies to reflect a more fair app store ecosystem for consumers?

    當你把所有這些因素,包括不同司法管轄區發生的各種變化和事件都考慮進去時,我認為這意味著應用商店必須捫心自問:他們是會零散地應對這些變化,在不同的市場採取不同的政策、收費結構和方法?還是會制定一項全球政策,解決所有這些真正重要且合理的擔憂,並改變應用商店政策,從而為消費者創造一個更公平的應用商店生態系統?

  • And so that's what remains to be seen. I think that probably plays out over the next 12 months, and so we need to keep watching it. But I know there's a lot of moving pieces on that. I know you're trying to follow it closely. And so I really do appreciate your efforts in that regard. And we'll continue to update on it.

    所以,這就是目前還待觀察的情況。我認為這可能會在未來12個月內逐漸明朗,因此我們需要持續關注。我知道這其中有很多變數。我知道您一直在密切關注此事。所以我非常感謝您在這方面所做的努力。我們會繼續向您報告最新進展。

  • We'll take one more quick one.

    我們再快速拍一張。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The last question will come from Thomas Doheny with Stifel.

    最後一個問題將由 Stifel 公司的 Thomas Doheny 提出。

  • Thomas James Doheny - Research Analyst

    Thomas James Doheny - Research Analyst

  • I just have one quickly. Is it possible to get a little bit more color on the new app that you guys are launching this summer?

    我還有一個問題。你們今年夏天即將推出的新應用能否增加一些彩色元素?

  • Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

    Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director

  • I can take that question. We have a big announcement planned for later this month, and we're really looking forward to telling everyone about it then. I'm personally really excited about it. So that's all that I can say on that one.

    我可以回答這個問題。我們計劃在本月稍後發布一項重大公告,我們非常期待屆時與大家分享。我個人也對此感到非常興奮。關於這個問題,我只能說這麼多了。

  • But to end and close this out, I want to thank everyone for joining our call and really appreciate everyone's time.

    最後,我要感謝大家參加我們的電話會議,非常感謝大家抽空。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議已結束。感謝您參加今天的報告。您可以斷開連線了。