使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Match Group First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.
美好的一天,歡迎來到 Match Group 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在記錄此事件。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Tanny Shelburne。請繼續。
Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR
Tanny Shelburne - SVP of IR
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and President and CFO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.
謝謝接線員,大家早上好。今天的電話會議將由首席執行官 Bernard Kim 主持;總裁兼首席財務官 Gary Swidler。他們將發表一些簡短的評論,然後我們將公開提問。
Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC.
在我們開始之前,我需要提醒大家,在這次電話會議中,我們可能會討論我們的前景和未來的表現。這些前瞻性陳述之前可能會出現我們預期、我們相信、我們預期或類似的陳述。這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響,我們的實際結果可能與今天表達的觀點存在重大差異。其中一些風險已在我們的收益發布和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中列出。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
有了這個,我想把電話轉給 BK。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Tanny, and good morning, everyone. Having served as CEO for nearly a full year, I want to start off by highlighting the accomplishments this team has achieved and all the opportunities ahead. We've made changes to set up Match Group for long-term growth, but there is a lot more work to do and areas to improve on.
謝謝,坦尼,大家早上好。在擔任首席執行官將近一年之後,我想首先強調這個團隊所取得的成就以及未來的所有機遇。我們已經做出改變,以建立 Match Group 以實現長期增長,但還有很多工作要做,還有很多地方需要改進。
We restructured Match Group's businesses to optimize internal operations, increase cross-brand collaboration and improve the speed to ship products. These changes are having a real impact, and the teams have never worked this closely together before. We are working together to innovate, tackle challenges and reaccelerate growth.
我們重組了 Match Group 的業務,以優化內部運營、加強跨品牌合作並提高產品發貨速度。這些變化正在產生真正的影響,而且這些團隊以前從未如此緊密地合作過。我們正在共同努力創新、應對挑戰並重新加速增長。
Hinge continues to set the bar for what an A+ acquisition should look like. We acquired Hinge in 2018 when the app was generating just under $1 million in revenue. Just 5 years later, Hinge has surpassed 1 million payers and is on track to generate approximately $400 million in total revenue for 2023. Hinge's exponential growth is largely due to the team's passion and ability to focus on product, coupled with Match Group's expertise and operational support.
Hinge 繼續為 A+ 收購應該是什麼樣子設定標準。我們在 2018 年收購了 Hinge,當時該應用程序產生的收入不到 100 萬美元。僅僅 5 年後,Hinge 的付款人已超過 100 萬,並有望在 2023 年產生約 4 億美元的總收入。Hinge 的指數級增長在很大程度上歸功於團隊專注於產品的熱情和能力,再加上 Match Group 的專業知識和運營能力支持。
In addition to its meaningful traction in English-speaking markets, Hinge is successfully expanding internationally, and we're impressed with these early results. The team also successfully launched a new subscription tier, HingeX, and has so much runway ahead. I continue to be impressed by the momentum at Hinge, and I'm excited to see them grow to new heights as part of the Match Group family.
除了在英語市場上具有重要吸引力外,Hinge 還在國際上成功擴張,我們對這些早期成果印象深刻。該團隊還成功推出了一個新的訂閱層 HingeX,並且還有很長的路要走。 Hinge 的發展勢頭繼續給我留下深刻印象,我很高興看到他們作為 Match Group 家族的一員成長到新的高度。
Now turning to Tinder, where the majority of our energy has been focused. As you all know, we've made some changes to the Tinder leadership team and restructured Tinder's organization to immediately address the lack of output that was occurring. These changes have shored up the frequent turnover and loss of institutional knowledge that Tinder was facing. Just to give you an example, we have roughly 15 VPs and above voluntarily depart Tinder in the months before the new leadership team took over. Since then, we have not had a single person of that level voluntarily depart Tinder.
現在轉向 Tinder,我們的大部分精力都集中在這裡。眾所周知,我們對 Tinder 領導團隊進行了一些調整,並對 Tinder 的組織進行了重組,以立即解決正在發生的產出不足問題。這些變化加劇了 Tinder 面臨的頻繁更替和機構知識流失。舉個例子,在新領導團隊接手之前的幾個月裡,我們大約有 15 位副總裁及以上的副總裁自願離開 Tinder。從那以後,我們還沒有一個那個級別的人自願離開 Tinder。
Back in February, we shared a detailed product road map for 2023. This road map is a culmination of our near-term vision for Tinder, and the whole organization has rallied around it. The changes we've made are working. In fact, the team is shipping and testing more features than they were at the height of their delivery in 2021.
早在 2 月,我們就分享了 2023 年的詳細產品路線圖。該路線圖是我們對 Tinder 近期願景的總結,整個組織都圍繞著它團結起來。我們所做的更改正在發揮作用。事實上,該團隊正在交付和測試比 2021 年交付高峰期更多的功能。
Tinder recently launched weekly subscription packages in the U.S., in addition to optimizing tiered pricing. We launched these initiatives at the very end of Q1, and we're starting to see early revenue momentum beginning to build in April, but it is still early.
Tinder 最近在美國推出了每週訂閱套餐,此外還優化了分級定價。我們在第一季度末推出了這些舉措,我們開始看到早期收入勢頭在 4 月份開始形成,但現在還為時過早。
One of the things I've learned in my role as CEO of Tinder is that dating platforms have a delicate ecosystem. And it's important to fully understand the impact new features or minor adjustments can have on the user experience, not only for payers but nonpayers as well. So it is vital for our teams to rigorously test and ensure we're introducing the right features for the ecosystem as a whole. This cautious approach to testing new features and rolling them out methodically is one reason why the revenue impact is muted at the start, but will grow over time.
作為 Tinder 的首席執行官,我學到的一件事是約會平台有一個微妙的生態系統。重要的是要充分了解新功能或微小調整可能對用戶體驗產生的影響,不僅對付費用戶如此,對非付費用戶也是如此。因此,對於我們的團隊來說,嚴格測試並確保我們為整個生態系統引入正確的功能至關重要。這種謹慎的測試新功能並有條不紊地推出它們的方法是收入影響在一開始是微弱的,但會隨著時間的推移而增長的原因之一。
Another key focus has been redefining Tinder's brand narrative. Tinder rolled out its marketing campaign in Q1, and it's having a strong initial impact. Its primary focus was to improve perception, especially among young women. As we detailed in the letter, we've seen noticeable improvements in brand consideration and intent. Marketing began in the U.S. and U.K. and has now expanded to additional markets.
另一個重點是重新定義 Tinder 的品牌敘事。 Tinder 在第一季度推出了營銷活動,並產生了強大的初步影響。它的主要重點是提高認知度,尤其是在年輕女性中。正如我們在信中詳述的那樣,我們已經看到品牌考慮和意圖方面的顯著改善。營銷始於美國和英國,現在已擴展到其他市場。
As a result, Tinder has started to see improved user growth in several key markets, including the U.S. and U.K., but it is only the first step in a multiphase campaign. As the team continues to build on this momentum and focus on execution, I believe Tinder is well positioned to exit 2023 with improved financial performance and longer-term sustainable growth.
因此,Tinder 在包括美國和英國在內的幾個主要市場開始看到用戶增長有所改善,但這只是多階段活動的第一步。隨著團隊繼續鞏固這一勢頭並專注於執行,我相信 Tinder 已準備好在 2023 年退出,財務業績得到改善並實現長期可持續增長。
Zooming back out, Match Group's purpose is to expand and innovate the dating experience for singles around the world, so everyone can find a meaningful connection. I have tasked our new CTO to work with our leadership team to evaluate emerging technologies like AI, which we believe can be a massive unlock for the category, the same way that the shift to mobile led to the creation of Tinder, which redefined the category just 10 years ago.
拉近距離,Match Group 的目的是為世界各地的單身人士擴展和創新約會體驗,讓每個人都能找到有意義的聯繫。我已委派我們的新 CTO 與我們的領導團隊合作,評估 AI 等新興技術,我們認為這可以為該類別帶來巨大的解鎖,就像轉向移動導致創建 Tinder 一樣,Tinder 重新定義了該類別就在 10 年前。
There is a significant opportunity to leverage AI in profile creation, matching and discovery as well as throughout the post-match experience to unlock new user adoption. We believe we can leverage these new capabilities to drive the next phase of growth.
在配置文件創建、匹配和發現以及整個賽后體驗中利用 AI 來解鎖新用戶採用是一個重要的機會。我們相信我們可以利用這些新功能來推動下一階段的增長。
As a leadership team, we're cognizant of the delicate balance between achieving short-term revenue wins while driving sustained shareholder value. We're focused on achieving both objectives prudently, assessing the trade-offs and opportunities to hit our 2023 expectations, while also delivering unique, innovative and compelling user experiences for years to come.
作為一個領導團隊,我們認識到實現短期收入勝利與推動持續股東價值之間的微妙平衡。我們專注於審慎地實現這兩個目標,評估權衡和機會以達到我們 2023 年的預期,同時在未來幾年提供獨特、創新和引人注目的用戶體驗。
And with that, I'll kick it over to Gary.
有了這個,我會把它踢給加里。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Thanks, BK, and hello, everyone. Our Q1 2023 total revenue was still not to the standards we expect of ourselves, coming in at $787 million, down 1% year-over-year. FX was a notable headwind once again as our total revenue would have been $822 million, up 3% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis. The year-over-year FX headwind was $7 million more than we expected when we provided our Q1 outlook on our February earnings call. The unexpected additional headwind resulted in total revenue slightly below the range that we provided on that call.
謝謝,BK,大家好。我們 2023 年第一季度的總收入仍未達到我們預期的標準,為 7.87 億美元,同比下降 1%。外匯再次成為一個明顯的不利因素,因為我們的總收入將達到 8.22 億美元,在外匯中性的基礎上同比增長 3%。當我們在 2 月份的財報電話會議上提供第一季度展望時,同比外匯逆風比我們預期的多 700 萬美元。意外的額外逆風導致總收入略低於我們在那次電話會議上提供的範圍。
Direct revenue, which is revenue we earned directly from our users, was down 1% year-over-year, up 3% FX-neutral in Q1. This was driven by total payers down 3% year-over-year to $15.9 million and RPP up 2% year-over-year at $16.26. On an FX-neutral basis, Q1 RPP was up 6% year-over-year company-wide.
直接收入,即我們直接從用戶那裡賺取的收入,同比下降 1%,第一季度增長 3%(外匯中性)。這是由於總付款人同比下降 3% 至 1590 萬美元,RPP 同比增長 2% 至 16.26 美元。在外匯中性的基礎上,第一季度全公司 RPP 同比增長 6%。
Tinder slightly underperformed our expectations in the quarter. Tinder direct revenue was flat year-over-year at $441 million, up 4% FX-neutral. Tinder payers were relatively flat year-over-year in Q1 at $10.7 million, and RPP was also relatively flat year-over-year at $13.80. Tinder saw year-over-year subscription revenue growth, while a la carte revenue declined year-over-year, impacted by the macro environment.
Tinder 在本季度的表現略低於我們的預期。 Tinder 直接收入為 4.41 億美元,同比持平,增長 4%(不計匯率影響)。 Tinder 付款人在第一季度與去年同期相對持平,為 1070 萬美元,RPP 也與去年同期相對持平,為 13.80 美元。 Tinder 訂閱收入同比增長,而點菜收入同比下降,受宏觀環境影響。
Tinder released weekly subscriptions and undertook pricing optimizations in several markets, including the U.S., towards the end of the quarter, limiting their revenue impact on Q1. User growth in the quarter was slightly below our expectations. However, in April, we've started to see much improved Tinder performance as the top of the funnel has strengthened somewhat and the weekly subscription and pricing optimizations have begun to deliver tangible revenue contribution. Tinder plans to test weekly subscriptions and pricing optimizations in additional markets this quarter.
Tinder 在本季度末發布了每週訂閱並在包括美國在內的多個市場進行了定價優化,從而限制了其對第一季度收入的影響。本季度的用戶增長略低於我們的預期。然而,在 4 月份,我們開始看到 Tinder 的性能有了很大改善,因為漏斗頂部有所加強,每週訂閱和定價優化已經開始帶來切實的收入貢獻。 Tinder 計劃本季度在其他市場測試每週訂閱和定價優化。
Tinder introduced its marketing campaign in Q1, and it's achieving its objective of improving brand sentiment, especially among younger users, particularly women. As a result of that campaign, Tinder's market position in terms of downloads has improved in several key markets, most notably, the U.S. and the U.K.
Tinder 在第一季度推出了營銷活動,它正在實現提升品牌情緒的目標,尤其是在年輕用戶中,尤其是女性。由於該活動,Tinder 在幾個主要市場(尤其是美國和英國)的下載量市場地位有所提高。
Our Hinge brand continues to perform very strongly. Hinge grew direct revenue 27%, 30% FX-neutral year-over-year, slightly ahead of our expectations, as performance in core English-speaking markets continued to be outstanding. Hinge payers were up 15% and totaled over 1 million in the quarter, while RPP of over $25 was up over 10% year-over-year. The new subscription tiers at Hinge continue to contribute as well, with the 20% take rate of the more premium tier HingeX, consistent with our expectations. And as we detailed in the letter, Hinge's European expansion continues to have major traction.
我們的 Hinge 品牌繼續表現強勁。由於核心英語市場的表現繼續出色,Hinge 的直接收入同比增長 27%,外匯中性增長 30%,略高於我們的預期。鉸鏈付款人在本季度增長了 15%,總數超過 100 萬,而超過 25 美元的 RPP 同比增長超過 10%。 Hinge 的新訂閱層也繼續做出貢獻,更高級的 HingeX 的訂閱率為 20%,符合我們的預期。正如我們在信中詳述的那樣,Hinge 的歐洲擴張繼續具有重大吸引力。
Our MG Asia business saw year-over-year direct revenue decline 13% in Q1, though down only 3% FX-neutral. At Hyperconnect, Azar grew direct revenue 4% year-over-year, though much stronger on an FX-neutral basis, but Hakuna and Pairs saw year-over-year declines.
我們的 MG 亞洲業務在第一季度的直接收入同比下降了 13%,但在外匯中性的情況下僅下降了 3%。在 Hyperconnect,Azar 的直接收入同比增長 4%,儘管在外匯中性基礎上要強勁得多,但 Hakuna 和 Pairs 的收入同比下降。
At Evergreen & Emerging, direct revenue declined 8% year-over-year, 6% FX-neutral, as we continued to moderate marketing spend at the Evergreen Brands. The Emerging Brands, including Chispa, BLK and The League, collectively grew direct revenue in excess of 50% year-over-year. Both MG Asia and E&E performance was consistent with our expectations.
在 Evergreen & Emerging,直接收入同比下降 8%,外匯中性下降 6%,因為我們繼續減少 Evergreen Brands 的營銷支出。包括 Chispa、BLK 和 The League 在內的新興品牌的直接收入同比增長超過 50%。 MG Asia 和 E&E 的表現都符合我們的預期。
Indirect revenue was $13 million in Q1, down 14% year-over-year, as marketers globally continued to tighten advertising budgets and ad prices declined. Operating income was $198 million in Q1, a 5% year-over-year decrease for a margin of 25%. Q1 adjusted operating income, or AOI, was $263 million, down 4% year-over-year, representing a margin of 33%. Q1 AOI and margins were above our prior expectations despite the total revenue shortfall versus our expectations as we continue to focus on costs, reducing marketing spend further and rationalizing some additional overhead costs as well.
第一季度的間接收入為 1300 萬美元,同比下降 14%,原因是全球營銷人員繼續收緊廣告預算並且廣告價格下降。第一季度營業收入為 1.98 億美元,同比下降 5%,利潤率為 25%。第一季度調整後營業收入 (AOI) 為 2.63 億美元,同比下降 4%,利潤率為 33%。儘管總收入低於我們的預期,但第一季度 AOI 和利潤率高於我們之前的預期,因為我們繼續關注成本,進一步減少營銷支出並合理化一些額外的管理費用。
We incurred approximately $4 million of severance and similar costs in Q1. Overall expenses, including SBC expense, were essentially flat year-over-year in Q1. Cost of revenue, including SBC expense, grew 2% year-over-year and represented 30% of total revenue, flat year-over-year. Live streamer fees declined, but app store fees increased year-over-year, primarily due to the $8 million escrow payment to Google, the last of which will be due in Q2.
我們在第一季度產生了大約 400 萬美元的遣散費和類似費用。第一季度,包括 SBC 費用在內的總體費用與去年同期基本持平。包括 SBC 費用在內的收入成本同比增長 2%,佔總收入的 30%,同比持平。直播費用下降,但應用商店費用同比增加,這主要是由於向谷歌支付了 800 萬美元的託管費用,最後一筆費用將在第二季度到期。
Selling and marketing spend, including SBC expense, decreased $15 million or 10% year-over-year, the fourth consecutive quarter where we've seen a year-over-year reduction as we continue to reduce marketing spend at our Evergreen Brands and to exercise ROI discipline overall. We increased sales and marketing spend meaningfully year-over-year at Hinge and modestly at Tinder, but it was down year-over-year at virtually all other brands.
包括 SBC 費用在內的銷售和營銷支出同比減少 1500 萬美元或 10%,這是我們連續第四個季度出現同比下降,因為我們繼續減少 Evergreen Brands 的營銷支出,並全面執行投資回報率紀律。我們在 Hinge 和 Tinder 的銷售和營銷支出同比顯著增加,但在幾乎所有其他品牌都同比下降。
Selling and marketing spend was down 2 points year-over-year as a percentage of total revenue to 17%. Product development costs, including SBC expense, grew 25% year-over-year and were 12% of total revenue, primarily reflecting the impact of engineering hiring at Tinder in late '21, early '22 and at Hinge. At this point, Hinge is the only major business within our portfolio where hiring remains particularly active.
銷售和營銷支出佔總收入的比例同比下降 2 個百分點至 17%。包括 SBC 費用在內的產品開發成本同比增長 25%,佔總收入的 12%,這主要反映了 Tinder 在 21 世紀末、22 年初和 Hinge 工程招聘的影響。目前,Hinge 是我們投資組合中唯一招聘仍然特別活躍的主要業務。
Interest expense increased 13% year-over-year in Q1, primarily due to the floating rate structure of our term loan, but interest income also increased very meaningfully given higher rates we are earning on our cash. Our gross leverage was 3.5x trailing AOI and net leverage was 3x at the end of Q1. Our target remains for net leverage to be below 3x. We ended the quarter with $578 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on hand.
第一季度的利息支出同比增長 13%,這主要是由於我們定期貸款的浮動利率結構,但鑑於我們的現金利率更高,利息收入也大幅增加。第一季度末,我們的總槓桿率為 3.5 倍 AOI,淨槓桿率為 3 倍。我們的目標仍然是淨槓桿率低於 3 倍。本季度結束時,我們手頭有 5.78 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資。
We repurchased 2.6 million of our common shares in the quarter for $113 million. At the end of Q1, we had only 2.7 million shares remaining under our existing buyback authorization. Our Board of Directors has authorized a new $1 billion buyback to replace the existing plan, which we expect to deploy over the next 2 to 3 years.
我們在本季度以 1.13 億美元回購了 260 萬股普通股。在第一季度末,我們現有的回購授權只剩下 270 萬股股票。我們的董事會已授權新的 10 億美元回購以取代現有計劃,我們預計將在未來 2 至 3 年內部署該計劃。
As we discussed in the shareholder letter, we expect to generate approximately $800 million of free cash flow this year, with further growth over the coming years. Going forward, we intend to return at least 50% of our free cash flow to shareholders. In consultation with our Board of Directors, we will determine the right timing and tools to use for return of capital.
正如我們在股東信中所討論的那樣,我們預計今年將產生約 8 億美元的自由現金流,並在未來幾年進一步增長。展望未來,我們打算將至少 50% 的自由現金流返還給股東。在與我們的董事會協商後,我們將確定用於資本返還的正確時機和工具。
Our capital allocation priorities are: one, to invest organically in our business; two, to strengthen our balance sheet; and three, to make compelling acquisitions. We may opt to return even more capital to shareholders if we do not identify sufficient compelling investment or acquisition opportunities.
我們的資本配置重點是:一,有機地投資於我們的業務;第二,加強我們的資產負債表;第三,進行引人注目的收購。如果我們沒有發現足夠有吸引力的投資或收購機會,我們可能會選擇向股東返還更多資本。
For Q2 '23, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $805 million to $815 million, up 1% to 3% year-over-year. We expect FX to be slightly more than a 1 point year-over-year headwind. At Tinder, we expect direct revenue to be up low single digits year-over-year, also with a little more than a 1 point year-over-year FX headwind. On a sequential basis, we expect Tinder direct revenue to increase in the low- to mid-single-digit percentage range. This strong sequential growth demonstrates that momentum is building and gives us confidence in achieving the strong exit rates we anticipate in Q4.
對於 23 年第二季度,我們預計 Match Group 的總收入為 8.05 億美元至 8.15 億美元,同比增長 1% 至 3%。我們預計外匯將略高於 1 點的同比逆風。在 Tinder,我們預計直接收入將同比增長低個位數,同時外匯逆風同比略高於 1 個百分點。按順序計算,我們預計 Tinder 的直接收入將以中低個位數百分比增長。這種強勁的連續增長表明勢頭正在增強,並使我們有信心在第四季度實現我們預期的強勁退出率。
We expect Tinder Q2 payers to decline year-over-year and sequentially. There are a number of initiatives in flight globally, including the introduction of weekly packages and the implementation of price changes, which are having various positive and negative impacts on payers and are being rolled out at various times in various markets.
我們預計 Tinder Q2 付款人將同比和環比下降。全球範圍內有許多舉措正在實施,包括每週套餐的推出和價格變化的實施,這些舉措對付款人產生了各種積極和消極的影響,並在不同時間在不同市場推出。
It's important to understand that Tinder in the U.S. elected to implement one of the higher price levels it tested, which we believe will maximize direct revenue, but will correspondingly have a large negative impact on conversion and payers. We expect that Tinder sequential payer additions will be much stronger by the end of the year once these changes are implemented.
重要的是要了解美國的 Tinder 選擇實施其測試的較高價格水平之一,我們認為這將最大限度地提高直接收入,但相應地會對轉化率和付款人產生很大的負面影響。我們預計,一旦實施這些更改,到今年年底,Tinder 順序付款人的增加將更加強勁。
We expect Hinge to deliver meaningfully accelerating Q2 year-over-year direct revenue growth, driven by continued strong performance in Hinge's English-speaking markets and the effects of the new pricing tiers and continued European expansion. We expect MG Asia to decline modestly year-over-year in Q2 and be essentially flat year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis.
我們預計,在 Hinge 英語市場持續強勁表現以及新定價等級和歐洲持續擴張的影響下,Hinge 將實現第二季度直接收入同比顯著加速增長。我們預計 MG Asia 在第二季度同比溫和下滑,在外匯中性的基礎上同比基本持平。
We expect our Evergreen & Emerging Brands direct revenue to decline year-over-year at similar rates as was the case in Q1, with similar growth rates at each of the Evergreen & emerging groups of brands as was the case in Q1 as well. We expect Q2 indirect revenue to be closer to flat year-over-year as we broaden the opportunities we offer for advertising in our products.
我們預計我們的常青和新興品牌直接收入將以與第一季度相似的速度同比下降,每個常青和新興品牌的增長率也與第一季度相似。我們預計第二季度的間接收入將與去年同期持平,因為我們擴大了在產品中提供廣告的機會。
We expect AOI of $275 million to $280 million in Q2, representing margin of approximately 34% at the midpoints of the ranges. We expect overall marketing spend to increase year-over-year in Q2, specifically at Tinder and Hinge, with reductions in almost every other brand in the portfolio. We do expect to allocate some marketing dollars to our newly incubated app to support its introduction this summer.
我們預計第二季度的 AOI 為 2.75 億美元至 2.8 億美元,相當於範圍中點的利潤率約為 34%。我們預計第二季度的整體營銷支出將同比增長,特別是在 Tinder 和 Hinge 上,而投資組合中幾乎所有其他品牌的支出都將減少。我們確實希望為我們新孵化的應用程序分配一些營銷資金,以支持它在今年夏天的推出。
We expect IAP fees to continue to be a year-over-year headwind in Q2, though we expect to stop placing funds into the Google escrow after July, per the terms we have agreed to. We expect to continue to be very cautious on spending in all other spending categories within our control. We anticipate incurring approximately $4 million of severance and similar costs in Q2.
我們預計 IAP 費用在第二季度將繼續成為同比逆風,儘管我們預計將根據我們同意的條款在 7 月之後停止將資金存入谷歌託管。我們預計將繼續對我們控制範圍內的所有其他支出類別的支出非常謹慎。我們預計第二季度將產生大約 400 萬美元的遣散費和類似費用。
Given the emerging success of the recent initiatives at Tinder and the momentum we expect the business to continue to build over the coming quarters, we have confidence that in Q4, Tinder year-over-year direct revenue growth will reach double digits as will the company's overall year-over-year total revenue growth.
鑑於 Tinder 最近的舉措取得了新的成功,以及我們預計該業務將在未來幾個季度繼續發展的勢頭,我們有信心在第四季度,Tinder 的直接收入同比增長將達到兩位數,公司的收入也將達到兩位數。總收入同比整體增長。
We admittedly have had a modestly weaker Q1 and anticipate a slightly weaker Q2 than we expected when we provided our full year outlook back in November of last year. As such, there is an increasing likelihood that we will be closer to the lower end of our total revenue growth outlook for the full year.
誠然,我們的第一季度略微疲軟,預計第二季度將略低於我們去年 11 月提供全年展望時的預期。因此,我們越來越有可能接近全年總收入增長前景的下限。
That said, marketing and product momentum is improving at Tinder, and we had strong performance in April, so we're eager to see how all these initiatives continue to progress. We also remain confident that Hinge's momentum will lead it to deliver approximately $400 million of direct revenue in 2023.
儘管如此,Tinder 的營銷和產品勢頭正在改善,我們在 4 月份的表現也很強勁,所以我們很想知道所有這些舉措如何繼續取得進展。我們也仍然相信,Hinge 的發展勢頭將使其在 2023 年實現約 4 億美元的直接收入。
In terms of full year 2023 AOI margin, we continue to target flat or better than the 35% we achieved last year. We continue to expect improving year-over-year margins as the benefits of our cost savings initiatives take hold and Tinder top line growth reaccelerates.
就 2023 年全年 AOI 利潤率而言,我們的目標繼續持平或高於去年實現的 35%。隨著我們的成本節約計劃的優勢逐漸顯現,Tinder 的收入增長再次加速,我們繼續期望利潤率同比提高。
There continues to be a lot of developments in both legal systems and legislatures around the world regarding app store policies, and we remain optimistic that further change is coming, especially as a result of the Digital Markets Act in the EU early next year. The most recent news was the Epic Games versus Apple appeal in the Ninth Circuit. As a result of that decision, we're increasingly hopeful that we'll be able to promote less expensive payment methods with improved customer service to our users in the not-too-distant future.
世界各地的法律體系和立法機構在應用程序商店政策方面繼續取得了很大進展,我們仍然樂觀地認為即將發生進一步的變化,特別是由於明年初歐盟的數字市場法案。最新消息是 Epic Games 與 Apple 在第九巡迴法院的上訴。由於該決定,我們越來越希望能夠在不久的將來向我們的用戶推廣更便宜的支付方式,並改善客戶服務。
When we provided our full year outlook last November, I said that we expected to take a little time in the first half of 2023 to build momentum, but are confident that improved product momentum and our financial discipline position us for much stronger growth and profitability in the back half of the year as well as long term. That view has not changed.
當我們在去年 11 月提供全年展望時,我說過我們預計在 2023 年上半年需要一點時間來建立勢頭,但我們相信改善的產品勢頭和我們的財務紀律將使我們在下半年以及長期。這種看法沒有改變。
We would have preferred to see a little more momentum at the outset of '23, but we strongly believe the changes we've made are working, momentum is gradually building, and we're positioned for much better financial performance by the end of this year, which should provide momentum into next year as well. Additionally, we believe that the combination of our updated capital allocation approach and our path to stronger growth can create a very compelling level of return for our shareholders.
我們本來希望在 23 年初看到更多的勢頭,但我們堅信我們所做的改變正在奏效,勢頭正在逐漸建立,我們準備好在今年年底獲得更好的財務業績年,這也應該為明年提供動力。此外,我們相信,我們更新的資本配置方法與我們實現更強勁增長的道路相結合,可以為我們的股東創造非常有吸引力的回報水平。
With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
有了這個,我會要求接線員打開問題熱線。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from James Heaney with Jefferies.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 James Heaney。
James Edward Heaney - Equity Associate
James Edward Heaney - Equity Associate
Just for Gary, can you talk specifically about the encouraging signs that you're seeing at Tinder in April? Is that primarily around the success you're seeing on price increases? Or are there other specific optimizations that are driving the uplift?
就 Gary 而言,您能否具體談談 4 月份在 Tinder 上看到的令人鼓舞的跡象?這主要是圍繞您在價格上漲方面看到的成功嗎?或者是否有其他特定的優化正在推動提升?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Thanks, James, for the question. We've actually seen improvement in several Tinder KPIs here in April. And really, what I'm referring to is new user sign-ups as well as reactivations of old users. And we've seen improvement because of the marketing campaign and other initiatives that Tinder has undertaken.
謝謝,詹姆斯,提出這個問題。事實上,我們在 4 月份看到了幾個 Tinder KPI 的改善。實際上,我指的是新用戶註冊以及舊用戶的重新激活。由於 Tinder 開展的營銷活動和其他舉措,我們已經看到了改善。
In terms of the revenue lift, the new weekly subscriptions and price optimizations didn't roll out to any significant extent until April. And now they're in 5 major countries, which is leading to incremental revenue. So we're seeing strength, both in terms of top of the funnel and the revenue initiatives really take hold. We're going to test these price optimizations in several geographies in Q2. And as we roll out the weekly subscription packages in many more markets, that's going to add incremental revenue.
就收入提升而言,新的每週訂閱和價格優化直到 4 月份才顯著推出。現在他們在 5 個主要國家,這導致收入增加。所以我們看到了實力,無論是在漏斗頂部還是收入計劃方面都真正佔據了上風。我們將在第二季度在多個地區測試這些價格優化。隨著我們在更多市場推出每週訂閱套餐,這將增加收入。
One month isn't enough to really make a call, but we feel optimistic given we're seeing the initiatives have success with the top of the funnel and on the revenue side. And so as a result of that, our outlook contemplates sequential revenue improvement in Q2 compared to Q1. And that's showing that what BK and the team are doing at Tinder really is leading to results, and that's giving us much improved optimism.
一個月不足以真正打電話,但我們感到樂觀,因為我們看到這些舉措在漏斗頂部和收入方面取得了成功。因此,我們的展望預計第二季度的收入將比第一季度有所改善。這表明 BK 和團隊在 Tinder 所做的工作確實取得了成果,這讓我們更加樂觀。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citi.
我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ygal Arounian。
Ygal Arounian - Research Analyst
Ygal Arounian - Research Analyst
Just to continue on Tinder, on the product road map, and I want to focus on the product side, not the monetization here. Can you talk about what are the most important products on the road map? Maybe take some time to hit on the women's experience more specifically as well.
繼續在 Tinder 上,在產品路線圖上,我想專注於產品方面,而不是這裡的貨幣化。你能談談路線圖上最重要的產品是什麼嗎?也許還需要一些時間來更具體地了解女性的經歷。
How much lift is there on that to get on par with the competing dating apps? And thinking about some of the commentary in the letter pointing to users that are trying to drive other uses of the third-party apps and how that's been impacting the experience on Tinder.
與競爭性約會應用程序相提並論的提升幅度有多大?並考慮信中的一些評論,這些評論指出用戶正試圖推動第三方應用程序的其他用途,以及這如何影響 Tinder 的體驗。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks for the question, Ygal. Gary mentioned our recent momentum that we've seen over the last month, and that's been really exciting for us. But what I wanted to jump in a little bit about is like our journey, because we had a bit of a start, stop and then start again.
謝謝你的問題,Ygal。加里提到了我們在上個月看到的最近的勢頭,這對我們來說真的很令人興奮。但我想跳入一點就像我們的旅程,因為我們有一個開始,停止然後重新開始。
Jumping in, I actually thought we could have moved a lot faster, but we're really diligent around setting up a stable and solid culture with the team. And what I wanted to do was really get the team focused and reduce some of the distractions. In doing that, we had to galvanize the organization around a clear road map. And this can be challenging to do with a lot of creative and technologists that have a lot of great swirling ideas.
跳進去,我實際上認為我們可以更快地移動,但我們真的很努力地與團隊建立穩定和穩固的文化。我想做的是真正讓團隊集中註意力並減少一些干擾。為此,我們必須圍繞清晰的路線圖來激勵組織。對於許多有很多很棒的想法的創意和技術專家來說,這可能具有挑戰性。
But for us to do that, our CPO came up with this concept around 3 Rs: relevancy, realness and respect, and creating experiences within our ecosystem and our platform that ensure that our daters are having a rewarding experience within Tinder every single day.
但為了讓我們做到這一點,我們的 CPO 圍繞 3 Rs 提出了這個概念:相關性、真實性和尊重,並在我們的生態系統和平台中創造體驗,確保我們的約會者每天在 Tinder 中獲得有益的體驗。
When you're asking me to kind of pick the most important features, it's actually hard to do that with our road map because everything is intertwined, and there's been a lot of thought about how these features go against one another and how they work together. But I guess I can maybe highlight 3 of those features.
當你要我挑選最重要的功能時,實際上很難用我們的路線圖做到這一點,因為一切都是交織在一起的,而且人們對這些功能如何相互矛盾以及它們如何協同工作進行了很多思考.但我想我也許可以強調其中的 3 個功能。
One of the features that I look forward to us rolling out more broadly is called [Just For You]. This is a feature that was designed from the ground up based on in-depth research that we have to create matches with features and people that matter most to women. What we want to do is deliver great matches, so women have a good experience. And when women have a good experience, that will lead to men having a better experience as well. I believe that Just For You will lead to better matches, conversations and hopefully real-life meetings.
我期待我們更廣泛地推出的功能之一稱為 [Just For You]。這是一項基於深入研究從頭開始設計的功能,我們必須創建與對女性最重要的功能和人相匹配的功能。我們想要做的是提供出色的比賽,讓女性擁有良好的體驗。當女性擁有良好的體驗時,男性也會獲得更好的體驗。我相信 Just For You 會帶來更好的匹配、對話和希望的現實生活中的會議。
When it comes to platform health, we are very focused on maintaining the quality of the user experience and the user base, and this gets to realness. We want to utilize our technology and scale and policies to eliminate bad actors and spammers from our platform. And we've started those efforts today, and we're grinding through that throughout the year. And this is, I think, going to lead to a healthier ecosystem, will lead to better experiences and better revenue for us as well.
在平台健康方面,我們非常注重維護用戶體驗和用戶群的質量,這已經成為現實。我們希望利用我們的技術、規模和政策從我們的平台上消除不良行為者和垃圾郵件發送者。我們今天已經開始了這些努力,並且我們在全年都在努力。我認為,這將帶來更健康的生態系統,也將為我們帶來更好的體驗和更好的收入。
Another product that I'm personally really excited about is the high-end member experience that is currently in development. We have a great team working on this. This product set is compelling and I think will actually tap a new experience within Tinder. We're going to offer experiences for users to find the right matches faster in a fun way with less effort. I'm really looking forward to that rolling out this year.
另一個讓我個人非常興奮的產品是目前正在開發的高端會員體驗。我們有一支優秀的團隊致力於此。這個產品集很有吸引力,我認為實際上會在 Tinder 中帶來新的體驗。我們將為用戶提供體驗,讓他們以有趣的方式更快地找到合適的匹配項,而且工作量更少。我真的很期待今年的推出。
I've spent my career working with product teams, and I think that we did the right things to build the right foundation, and we're starting to see that momentum really hunt over the last couple months as our product velocity has increased dramatically from where we were at this time last year. Thanks for the question.
我的職業生涯一直與產品團隊合作,我認為我們做了正確的事情來建立正確的基礎,並且我們開始看到過去幾個月的勢頭真的很強勁,因為我們的產品速度從去年這個時候我們在哪裡。謝謝你的問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.
我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Helfstein 和 Oppenheimer。
Jason Stuart Helfstein - MD & Senior Internet Analyst
Jason Stuart Helfstein - MD & Senior Internet Analyst
So can you talk about the Tinder price testing in a bit more detail, why you feel confident that this is the right move strategically? I completely understand about the weekly, but the idea of just like the price increase at the kind of the longer-term plans, more premium. And then you used the word additional color on what significant meant. And then just secondly, more for housekeeping, but how are you thinking about -- specifically about second half Tinder net adds?
那麼您能否更詳細地談談 Tinder 價格測試,為什麼您有信心認為這是戰略上的正確舉措?我完全理解每週,但就像長期計劃中的價格上漲一樣,溢價更高。然後你在重要的意思上使用了附加顏色這個詞。其次,更多的是用於內務管理,但你是如何考慮的——特別是下半年的 Tinder 網絡增加?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Let me jump in and take that, Jason. I know this is getting a lot of attention. And so I want to try to explain kind of the philosophy behind what's going on at Tinder, because it's not just a case of random price testing here and there.
當然。讓我跳進去接受它,傑森。我知道這引起了很多關注。因此,我想嘗試解釋一下 Tinder 背後的哲學,因為這不僅僅是一個隨機價格測試的案例。
Really what Tinder has done is embarked on a comprehensive strategy around pricing and optimizing their business, which is something that really should be happening on a regular basis, but hadn't been happening until a couple of quarters ago. And really now they've thoughtfully gone through pricing strategy. And we talked a little bit about this in previous quarters, where we think through discounts and offers and things like that, that have existed, to try to determine whether those make sense from a long-term value perspective.
實際上,Tinder 所做的是圍繞定價和優化其業務制定了一項綜合戰略,這確實應該定期發生,但直到幾個季度前才發生。實際上,現在他們已經深思熟慮地制定了定價策略。我們在前幾個季度討論過這個問題,我們通過折扣和優惠以及類似的東西來思考,試圖從長期價值的角度來確定這些是否有意義。
And we've looked at some of those programs and have eliminated them, because we didn't think they made sense from a long-term value perspective. So you saw some impact on payers going back to last year, and that continued in the first quarter as Tinder continued to rationalize and optimize. So that was kind of the first piece of it that I want to make sure people understand. And as I said, it's part of a much more comprehensive and well-thought-through strategy that Tinder is actually very good, and the company generally is very good at thinking through.
我們研究了其中一些項目並取消了它們,因為我們認為從長期價值的角度來看它們沒有意義。所以你看到了對付款人的一些影響可以追溯到去年,並且隨著 Tinder 繼續合理化和優化,這種影響在第一季度繼續存在。所以這是我想確保人們理解的第一部分。正如我所說,Tinder 實際上非常好,這是一個更全面、更深思熟慮的戰略的一部分,而且該公司通常非常善於深思熟慮。
And so now here in the first quarter, at the very end of the first quarter, we've looked at pricing in all the different geographies where Tinder operates, and we believe that the prices that Tinder offers are well below the competitors, well below market. And so there's room to increase price in certain spots. And we've tested variance to see what will be revenue maximizing. Because what I've talked about many times is we're not focused on a specific KPI, whether it's payers or RPP and driving those, we want to maximize overall revenue at Tinder.
所以現在在第一季度,在第一季度末,我們研究了 Tinder 運營的所有不同地區的定價,我們認為 Tinder 提供的價格遠低於競爭對手,遠低於市場。所以在某些地方還有漲價的空間。我們已經測試了方差,以了解什麼可以使收入最大化。因為我多次談到的是我們不專注於特定的 KPI,無論是付款人還是 RPP 和推動這些,我們都希望最大限度地提高 Tinder 的整體收入。
And so we tested various levels in the U.S. in Q1. We've settled on a level to roll out, and that's going to have effect on Q2 payers overall as we roll that through the system. And now we've expanded those price tests into 4 additional geographies: Canada, the U.K., Australia and Japan, so 4 important geographies for Tinder. And we don't know exactly what variants are going to make the most sense, are going to maximize revenue in those geographies, so we're going to test again.
因此,我們在第一季度在美國測試了各種級別。我們已經確定了要推出的級別,這將在我們通過系統推出時對 Q2 付款人產生整體影響。現在,我們已將這些價格測試擴展到另外 4 個地區:加拿大、英國、澳大利亞和日本,因此是 Tinder 的 4 個重要地區。而且我們不確切知道哪些變體最有意義,會在這些地區最大化收入,所以我們將再次測試。
But if you assume that the same kind of variant prevails in those geographies that prevailed in the U.S., we expect to see as the year rolls on, additional impact on conversion and payers from that change in price. But again, it will be revenue maximizing. And so the fact that the changes that we've made in the U.S. appear to be working and appear to be driving incremental revenue, we expect the same thing in these other geographies. That's giving us confidence in incremental revenue for Q2 and into Q3 for Tinder, but there will be corresponding negative effects on the payers' numbers through those quarters. It depends on what variants prevail to determine what significant means. But obviously, there's an inverse correlation between the price and the impact on payers.
但是,如果您假設在美國盛行的那些地區盛行相同類型的變體,我們預計隨著時間的推移,價格變化將對轉化率和付款人產生額外影響。但同樣,這將是收入最大化。因此,事實上我們在美國所做的改變似乎正在發揮作用並且似乎正在推動收入增加,我們預計在其他這些地區也會出現同樣的情況。這讓我們對 Tinder 第二季度和第三季度的增量收入充滿信心,但這些季度的付款人數量將受到相應的負面影響。這取決於什麼變體佔優勢來確定什麼重要的意思。但顯然,價格與對付款人的影響之間存在反比關係。
And what I can tell you is I think as this all washes through the system late in the year. We think that we'll see a significant improvement in sequential payers at Tinder. And so we need to have all of these pricing changes play out, these optimizations play out. And once we do that, the business will be where it should have been, and ultimately, will return back to sort of a more normal cadence of payer net adds.
我可以告訴你的是,我認為這一切都在今年晚些時候通過系統進行。我們認為我們會看到 Tinder 的順序付款人有顯著改善。因此,我們需要讓所有這些定價變化發揮作用,這些優化發揮作用。一旦我們做到了這一點,業務就會回到它應該在的地方,並最終會回到一種更正常的支付者淨增加節奏。
So hopefully, that's helpful to give people a better understanding of what's going on. And this is a project that's never going to truly finish. So there's a big bulk of work that's a little bit of catch-up. But ultimately, on a regular basis, we need to be optimizing price. We need to be thinking through the dynamics in these markets, and Tinder is going to do so going forward.
希望這有助於讓人們更好地了解正在發生的事情。這是一個永遠不會真正完成的項目。所以有大量的工作需要一點點追趕。但最終,我們需要定期優化價格。我們需要思考這些市場的動態,Tinder 將在未來這樣做。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Dan Salmon with New Street Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Dan Salmon。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Dan, are you there? We can't hear you.
丹,你在嗎?我們聽不到你的聲音。
Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst
Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst
There you go. Sorry about that. Can you hear me now?
給你。對於那個很抱歉。你能聽到我嗎?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
We can.
我們可以。
Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst
Daniel Salmon - Research Analyst
Okay. Good stuff. So I just wanted to ask a little bit more about Tinder's brand campaign. It sounds like you're happy with the early returns on it. Maybe can you talk a little bit more about where it goes from here? You mentioned expanding it into new markets, but is regular marketing support of this nature something you see as an ongoing thing, does the brand need to be supported regularly? Happy with the creative, is there -- are there any iterations coming along those lines?
好的。好東西。所以我只想多問一點關於 Tinder 的品牌活動。聽起來你對它的早期回報很滿意。也許你能多談談它從這裡開始的地方嗎?您提到將其擴展到新市場,但您是否認為這種性質的定期營銷支持是持續不斷的事情,是否需要定期支持品牌?對創意感到滿意,是否有 - 是否有沿著這些路線進行的任何迭代?
And maybe if I can just slip in one more to Gary. Obviously, the Board made a fairly significant change in making a commitment to return 50% of free cash flow every year. And obviously, buybacks are going to be a big part of that. Maybe just one quick one, are you considering a dividend?
也許我可以再給加里一個。顯然,董事會做出了相當重大的改變,承諾每年返還 50% 的自由現金流。顯然,回購將是其中的重要組成部分。也許只是一個快速的,你在考慮分紅嗎?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Great. Thanks so much, Dan, for the question. I'll handle the first part, and Gary can handle the second part of the question. First, I want to thank you for asking that question around the marketing campaign, because we have a fantastic team that has been working really hard to get this campaign out in the marketplace.
偉大的。非常感謝,丹,提出這個問題。我將處理第一部分,Gary 可以處理問題的第二部分。首先,我要感謝您圍繞營銷活動提出這個問題,因為我們擁有一支出色的團隊,他們一直在非常努力地工作以將此活動推向市場。
One of the observations that I made upon joining Tinder and leading that organization is that historically, we've relied too much on virality of the app to spread in the marketplace. We have not invested enough in that brand narrative. And that narrative has kind of taken its own story.
我在加入 Tinder 並領導該組織時所做的觀察之一是,從歷史上看,我們過於依賴應用程序的病毒式傳播來在市場上傳播。我們在品牌敘事上的投入還不夠。這種敘述有點像自己的故事。
And that's why this team that we put in place went in with a tremendous amount of passion and energy and speed. And the idea that it all starts with a swipe really tells this story around the multiple different possibilities that can come from jumping into Tinder first time or jumping in the second time and the great experiences that come from that.
這就是為什麼我們組建的這個團隊以極大的熱情、精力和速度投入其中。一切都從輕掃開始的想法確實講述了這個故事,講述了第一次跳入 Tinder 或第二次跳入 Tinder 可能帶來的多種不同可能性,以及由此產生的美妙體驗。
Now this is a multi-staged approach, and the goal of the campaign initially is to drive brand perception. So the good news around that is we're actually starting to see really strong early momentum, specifically with the market that we're targeting, women ages 18 to 24. And we've seen increases of over 3 points in both brand consideration as well as intent. That's great progress, just knowing that we're a couple of months in and we're in major markets here in the United States and in the U.K. I personally see it all over Los Angeles, especially in my commute from Manhattan Beach over to the Tinder headquarters.
現在這是一個多階段的方法,活動的最初目標是提升品牌知名度。因此,好消息是我們實際上開始看到非常強勁的早期勢頭,特別是我們的目標市場,即 18 至 24 歲的女性。我們已經看到品牌考慮度增加了超過 3 個百分點,因為以及意圖。這是一個巨大的進步,只知道我們已經有幾個月的時間了,而且我們在美國和英國的主要市場上都是如此。我個人在整個洛杉磯都看到了它,尤其是在我從曼哈頓海灘到紐約的通勤路上火種總部。
Now as Gary has said, we've started to see some really strong improvement in top of funnel, so that's great to see as well. But this is the first stage. So what we're starting off is building that positive brand platform, which we then can build upon as our marketing teams are working super closely with our product team. And then down the road, I'm really excited about those next stages of the campaign, which can describe more of our product features and what that means for the overall community in Tinder.
現在正如加里所說,我們已經開始看到漏斗頂部的一些非常強大的改進,所以這也很高興看到。但這是第一階段。所以我們開始的是建立一個積極的品牌平台,然後我們可以在我們的營銷團隊與我們的產品團隊密切合作的基礎上建立這個平台。然後在路上,我對活動的下一階段感到非常興奮,它可以描述更多我們的產品功能以及這對 Tinder 的整個社區意味著什麼。
We expect that the long-term effects of these campaigns will be to improve, a, brand perception; and then accelerate downloads and registrations. Gary, do you want to take the second part?
我們預計這些活動的長期影響將是提高品牌認知度;然後加速下載和註冊。加里,你想參加第二部分嗎?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. On capital allocation, as we talk about in the letter, the company generates a significant amount of cash flow, and we don't want to just build cash on the balance sheet for the sake of building cash on the balance sheet. We want to return it to shareholders. And so it's our responsibility to look with our Board of Directors at all of the tools that are available to return capital to shareholders, which really includes dividends and buybacks.
當然。在資本配置方面,正如我們在信中所說,公司產生了大量現金流,我們不想為了在資產負債表上增加現金而在資產負債表上增加現金。我們想把它回報給股東。因此,我們有責任與我們的董事會一起研究所有可用於向股東返還資本的工具,這實際上包括股息和回購。
And so we're not going to rule anything out. The Board authorized a new large share buyback, and that's -- our plan is to implement that. But the world has evolved, valuations have evolved. We're not happy with where our stock price is. And to the extent that dividend makes sense at some point in the future, we're not afraid to consider that. So we'll look at all the tools. We constantly evaluate them. And we'll see kind of what we think makes the most sense as a way to return the capital to shareholders. So that's our thinking on capital allocation.
所以我們不會排除任何可能性。董事會授權進行新的大量股票回購,這就是我們的計劃。但世界在演變,估值也在演變。我們對我們的股價不滿意。就未來某個時候派息有意義的程度而言,我們不怕考慮這一點。所以我們會看看所有的工具。我們不斷地評估他們。我們將看到我們認為最有意義的一種方式,將資本返還給股東。這就是我們對資本配置的思考。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.
我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。
Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst
Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst
Could you please talk about Hinge? You're guiding to $400 million in annual revenues. You're reiterating your guide. How should we think about Hinge's sustainable growth and margin profile as an asset? And what gives you confidence that Hinge and Tinder both can grow concurrently?
你能談談Hinge嗎?您預計年收入將達到 4 億美元。你在重申你的指南。我們應該如何看待 Hinge 的可持續增長和利潤率作為一項資產?是什麼讓您相信 Hinge 和 Tinder 可以同時發展?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Let me take that one. Thanks, Shweta. What I would say, first of all, on Hinge, obviously, we're very pleased with the traction that the brand has. And by that, I mean a couple of things. First of all, its resonance, its ability to resonate in markets outside of core English-speaking markets, that's something that was not assured. And when we go into a market like France, which is different than a market like Germany culturally, and the fact that the brand resonates and gets organic traction in both markets, that's really encouraging and tells you that the brand really has the ability to expand around the world.
當然。讓我拿那個。謝謝,雪維塔。我要說的是,首先,顯然,在 Hinge 上,我們對該品牌的吸引力感到非常滿意。就此而言,我的意思是幾件事。首先,它的共鳴,它在核心英語市場之外的市場產生共鳴的能力,這是不確定的。當我們進入像法國這樣的市場時,它在文化上與德國這樣的市場不同,並且該品牌在兩個市場產生共鳴並獲得有機牽引力這一事實確實令人鼓舞,並告訴您該品牌確實有能力擴展世界各地。
And the fact that the brand has significant organic traction in a market like India, which is obviously very different than France or Germany or any other European market without any marketing or other efforts by Hinge in that market, that's a very encouraging sign for global expansion as well. So that's the first point. And we really do believe that the product experience at Hinge as well as their brand story around design to be deleted are both really resonating with users, and that's really a critical fact.
事實上,該品牌在印度這樣的市場具有顯著的有機吸引力,這顯然與法國、德國或任何其他歐洲市場截然不同,Hinge 在該市場沒有任何營銷或其他努力,這是全球擴張的一個非常令人鼓舞的跡象以及。這是第一點。我們確實相信 Hinge 的產品體驗以及他們圍繞要刪除的設計的品牌故事都真正引起了用戶的共鳴,這確實是一個關鍵事實。
The other thing I would point out is that Hinge is very early in its monetization journey. It's got a lot of runway on monetization. It's got a lot of runway globally on user growth. So it still has a lot to do and a lot of runway, and we're focused on capturing that and it's just really a matter of time for all that to happen.
我要指出的另一件事是,Hinge 處於貨幣化之旅的早期階段。它在貨幣化方面有很多跑道。在用戶增長方面,它在全球範圍內有很多跑道。所以它還有很多工作要做,還有很多跑道,我們專注於捕捉它,這一切的發生只是時間問題。
So when you factor that all together in terms of kind of what do we think that means from a numbers perspective, we think that Hinge can maintain growth rates around what it's going to do this year on a percentage basis and drive to be a $1 billion-plus revenue business over the next few years, if you look at, let's say, a 4-, 5-year plan. And I think it can do that by making the right levels of investments over the next few years in international expansion, just as we're doing in Europe this year.
因此,當你從數字的角度考慮我們認為這意味著什麼時,我們認為 Hinge 可以在今年的百分比基礎上保持增長率,並推動達到 10 億美元-加上未來幾年的收入業務,如果你看一下,比方說,一個 4 年、5 年的計劃。我認為它可以通過在未來幾年在國際擴張中進行適當水平的投資來做到這一點,就像我們今年在歐洲所做的那樣。
And so I think that, that will put some pressure on margins at Hinge over the next couple of years as the growth continues to be very strong. And then gradually, the business will get to a level of margin that's more consistent with the overall company level of margins. And so we're looking forward to seeing that kind of financial performance out of Hinge.
所以我認為,隨著增長繼續非常強勁,這將在未來幾年給 Hinge 的利潤率帶來一些壓力。然後逐漸地,業務將達到與公司整體利潤率水平更一致的利潤率水平。因此,我們期待看到 Hinge 的這種財務表現。
We took a lot of effort in the shareholder letter to talk about how we think there's ample opportunity for both Tinder and Hinge to grow at the same time and that we think the cannibalistic effects of Tinder on Hinge -- sorry, of Hinge on Tinder are not as much as people may think. So I'm not going to reiterate all that there.
我們在致股東信中花了很大力氣來談論我們如何認為 Tinder 和 Hinge 有足夠的機會同時發展,並且我們認為 Tinder 對 Hinge 的同類相食效應——抱歉,Hinge 對 Tinder 的影響是不像人們想像的那麼多。所以我不打算在那裡重申所有這些。
But I will just emphasize something that we said in the letter, which is important to understand, which is that the product experience at Tinder and Hinge are different, and the brand ethos of Tinder and Hinge are different, and consumers understand that. And some consumers prefer one to the other, but many, especially young users, use both because they use them for different purposes, and they like certain aspects of one and certain aspects of the other.
但我只想強調我們在信中所說的一點,理解這一點很重要,那就是 Tinder 和 Hinge 的產品體驗不同,Tinder 和 Hinge 的品牌精神不同,消費者理解這一點。有些消費者更喜歡其中之一,但許多人,尤其是年輕用戶,兩者都使用,因為他們將它們用於不同的目的,他們喜歡一個的某些方面和另一個的某些方面。
And so all of that tells us that we can grow Hinge and Tinder simultaneously, and that the overall impact of having both of those brands in a given market is accretive to Match Group's overall growth, much like we're seeing in the French market with some of the data that we've provided in the shareholder letter. So hopefully, that gives you some color to your questions.
因此,所有這些都告訴我們,我們可以同時發展 Hinge 和 Tinder,並且在特定市場擁有這兩個品牌的整體影響會增加 Match Group 的整體增長,就像我們在法國市場看到的那樣我們在股東信中提供的一些數據。希望這能為您的問題增添色彩。
Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst
Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst
Yes, that's helpful.
是的,這很有幫助。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen.
我們的下一個問題來自 John Blackledge 和 Cowen。
John Ryan Blackledge - MD & Senior Research Analyst
John Ryan Blackledge - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I thought there was interesting color in the shareholder letter on Tinder's paying user opportunity in North America, in Europe in the 18-to-34 demo. Given Tinder's recent paying user growth challenges, what do you see as kind of key drivers of getting both the lapsed and/or never-been users to the platform? And as a follow-up, it feels like what you laid out implies there's ample runway over time for further Tinder payer -- paying user growth.
我認為在 18 至 34 歲的演示中,關於 Tinder 在北美和歐洲的付費用戶機會的股東信中有一些有趣的顏色。鑑於 Tinder 最近的付費用戶增長挑戰,您認為將流失和/或從未使用過的用戶吸引到該平台的關鍵驅動因素是什麼?作為後續行動,感覺你所佈置的內容意味著隨著時間的推移有足夠的跑道來進一步增加 Tinder 付費用戶——付費用戶增長。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Thanks, John. So it's important to understand that reactivating lapsed users at Tinder has always been one of its key components of growth and something that they've actually been very good at historically. And as you point out, and we said in the letter, there's a very large pool of lapsed users for Tinder to go ahead and reactivate.
當然。謝謝,約翰。因此,重要的是要了解,在 Tinder 重新激活流失的用戶一直是其增長的關鍵組成部分之一,也是他們歷史上非常擅長的事情。正如你指出的那樣,我們在信中也說過,有大量流失的用戶需要 Tinder 繼續並重新激活。
But what we've seen in the last few quarters is that the Tinder product experience has not met some users' expectations. Tinder's ability to reactivate those lapsed users has declined as well. So if you put it kind of simply, Tinder hasn't given lapsed users enough reason to come back to the product.
但我們在過去幾個季度看到的是,Tinder 的產品體驗並沒有達到一些用戶的預期。 Tinder 重新激活那些流失用戶的能力也有所下降。因此,如果您簡單地說,Tinder 沒有給流失的用戶足夠的理由讓他們重新使用該產品。
And so as the team, led by BK, improves the product experience, we're optimistic that Tinder's success rate in reactivating these lapsed users will also increase. And we can really say the same thing for attracting new users as well, is that as the product experience and the brand narrative improve, Tinder should do a better job of attracting new users.
因此,隨著 BK 領導的團隊改善產品體驗,我們樂觀地認為 Tinder 在重新激活這些流失用戶方面的成功率也會提高。對於吸引新用戶,我們也可以說同樣的話,就是隨著產品體驗和品牌敘事的改善,Tinder 應該在吸引新用戶方面做得更好。
Now obviously, it's much easier to re-attract a lapsed user who's used the product before than someone new who's never tried it. But Tinder has to succeed on both fronts, attracting lapsed users and new users to achieve the level of growth in terms of overall user growth that we think Tinder needs to achieve. So it needs to push on both fronts and accomplish that.
現在顯然,重新吸引以前使用過該產品的流失用戶比從未嘗試過該產品的新用戶要容易得多。但 Tinder 必須在兩個方面都取得成功,吸引流失用戶和新用戶,以達到我們認為 Tinder 需要達到的整體用戶增長水平。因此,它需要同時推動這兩個方面並實現這一目標。
But as you said, and the letter again makes clear, there's a big pool of lapsed users in the developed markets, Europe, North America, for Tinder to go and reactivate. And there's a really big pool of never-tried users in other geographies in APAC and the rest of the world that have never tried Tinder. So there's ample runway for growth, both in terms of reactivating the lapsed users and also attracting first-time users that Tinder can go. And it's really just a question of product and brand execution to really achieve the level of user growth that we would like to see at Tinder.
但正如你所說,這封信再次明確指出,在發達市場、歐洲、北美,有大量流失用戶需要 Tinder 去重新激活。在亞太地區和世界其他地區的其他地區,有大量從未嘗試過的用戶從未嘗試過 Tinder。因此,無論是在重新激活流失用戶方面,還是在吸引 Tinder 可以吸引的新用戶方面,都有充足的增長空間。要真正達到我們希望在 Tinder 上看到的用戶增長水平,這實際上只是一個產品和品牌執行的問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Lauren Schenk。
Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst
Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst
Maybe just one on Hinge. As we think about international expansion, I think you're now in all the major markets in Europe, how are you thinking about second half expansion? Any thoughts or timing around when the app might enter Asia, understanding those markets are still a little bit difficult right now.
也許只有一個在 Hinge 上。當我們考慮國際擴張時,我認為你現在在歐洲的所有主要市場,你如何看待下半年的擴張?關於該應用程序何時進入亞洲的任何想法或時機,了解這些市場現在仍然有點困難。
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Lauren, for the question. I'm really excited about Hinge's performance. Like Gary mentioned, we're on track to hit 400 million this year, and that's incredible from where we started with Hinge joining the family just 5 years ago.
謝謝勞倫提出的問題。我對 Hinge 的表現感到非常興奮。就像 Gary 提到的那樣,我們今年有望達到 4 億,這與 5 年前 Hinge 加入這個大家庭的起點相比令人難以置信。
The progress that Hinge have made so far has been fantastic. But Hinge international expansion continues to be one of my top priorities for this year. When we go into these markets, we don't just localize the apps, but we actually culturalize these apps and make the experience what makes sense for daters in each of these individual markets. That also extends across our marketing message. So to use a European term, we do a bespoked approach of going to market, but also entrenching ourselves in these markets as well.
迄今為止,Hinge 取得的進展非常出色。但 Hinge 的國際擴張仍然是我今年的首要任務之一。當我們進入這些市場時,我們不僅將應用程序本地化,而且實際上使這些應用程序文化化,並使體驗對每個單獨市場的約會者都有意義。這也延伸到我們的營銷信息中。因此,用歐洲的術語來說,我們採用定制的方式進入市場,同時也在這些市場中站穩腳跟。
So our plan this year is to establish Hinge across Europe as the intentioned dating app. It's really important for us that we continue on this steady path throughout the year. We are in most markets today but we have a lot more work to do, and that's going to unveil itself over the next year. We're actually going to consider new markets outside of Europe in 2024, but we're focused on Europe in 2023. Thanks for the question, Lauren.
因此,我們今年的計劃是將 Hinge 打造成整個歐洲的有意約會應用程序。對我們來說,全年繼續沿著這條穩定的道路前進非常重要。我們今天進入了大多數市場,但我們還有很多工作要做,這將在明年揭曉。實際上,我們將在 2024 年考慮歐洲以外的新市場,但我們將在 2023 年專注於歐洲。勞倫,謝謝你提出這個問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alexandra Steiger。
Alexandra Christine Kasper Steiger - Research Analyst
Alexandra Christine Kasper Steiger - Research Analyst
So in the context of your Q2 revenue guide, which anticipates low single-digit growth, can you give us a bit more color on how we should think about the building blocks of your updated '23 revenue guide? What are the different assumptions that went into the guide initially? And how did these evolve since the last update? And then lastly, what are some potential areas of upside or downside when thinking through '23 revenue growth?
因此,在您的第二季度收入指南預計將出現低個位數增長的背景下,您能否給我們更多關於我們應該如何考慮更新的 '23 收入指南的組成部分的顏色?最初進入指南的不同假設是什麼?自上次更新以來這些是如何演變的?最後,在考慮 23 年的收入增長時,有哪些潛在的上行或下行領域?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. I'll take that one. So as we talked about in the letter, we're confident that we're going to get to Q4 Tinder direct revenue growth and total company revenue growth rates year-over-year in the double digits. It's still a little early to pinpoint exactly what level in there because we're only at the beginning of May. There's a lot of initiatives in flight, a lot of momentum building in the business. So we really need to see a little bit more how things are going to play out. But obviously, April has been encouraging, as I talked about. And so we feel good about the potential for exit rates in Q4.
當然。我會拿那個。因此,正如我們在信中談到的那樣,我們有信心在第四季度實現 Tinder 直接收入增長和公司總收入同比增長率達到兩位數。現在準確確定那裡的水平還為時過早,因為我們才 5 月初。有很多計劃在進行中,業務中有很多勢頭。所以我們真的需要多看看事情會如何發展。但顯然,正如我所說,4 月令人鼓舞。因此,我們對第四季度退出率的潛力感到滿意。
And so if you look at kind of what we achieved in Q1, you look at what our outlook is for Q2 and then what we think is going to happen by Q4 and you extrapolate Q3 to get there, you end up with a growth rate overall of around 5-or-so percent, sort of in that neighborhood.
因此,如果你看看我們在第一季度取得的成就,你看看我們對第二季度的展望,然後我們認為到第四季度會發生什麼,然後你推斷第三季度到那裡,你最終會得到一個整體增長率大約 5% 左右,在那個街區。
The biggest swing factor, which I'm sure is apparent to you and to others as well, is really what's going to happen in terms of the Tinder trajectory. The marketing campaign, the momentum at the top of the funnel as well as all the revenue initiatives that we have in place are really going to determine where exactly we land for the full year growth rate and certainly, the Q4 exit rate. So that's really the big swing factor. And we've given, I think, a lot of color on what we're seeing and what gives us confidence in where we're going.
最大的搖擺因素,我相信你和其他人都很明顯,就是 Tinder 軌跡方面將要發生的事情。營銷活動、漏斗頂部的勢頭以及我們實施的所有收入計劃,將真正決定我們全年增長率的確切位置,當然還有第四季度的退出率。所以這真的是一個很大的搖擺因素。我認為,我們已經為我們所看到的以及讓我們對前進方向充滿信心的事物賦予了很多色彩。
The other thing that we're monitoring is the macro environment, which I mentioned is having impact on a la carte at Tinder, which is a reasonably significant component of its revenue. And right now we're not seeing any big movement one way or the other in terms of our expectations on what's actually happening a la carte.
我們正在監控的另一件事是宏觀環境,我提到這對 Tinder 的點菜有影響,這是其收入的一個相當重要的組成部分。現在,就我們對點菜實際發生的事情的期望而言,我們沒有看到任何大的變化。
So our trajectory for the year assumes that a la carte kind of continues the way it's been with not modest major swings up or down. That is a potential swing factor or a change in assumption. But right now, we don't see any evidence that our assumptions around a la carte are inappropriate. And so that's all, I think, properly baked into our outlook at this point. So those are the things that we're watching as the year progresses.
因此,我們今年的軌跡假設點菜式會繼續保持以往的方式,不會出現適度的大幅上漲或下跌。這是一個潛在的搖擺因素或假設的變化。但現在,我們沒有看到任何證據表明我們對點菜的假設是不合適的。因此,我認為,這就是我們目前的展望。因此,隨著時間的推移,這些就是我們正在關注的事情。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.
我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的本傑明布萊克。
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Just pivoting to costs, where you obviously reiterated the guide for AOI margins to be at least flat in '23. So if we look beyond app store fee changes, what are the major swing factors that could drive upside or downside there? Is there room to tighten up the cost structure any further? And how should we be thinking about the trade-off between revenue growth and expense moderation at the legacy brands? What's sort of baked into your outlook there?
只是轉向成本,您顯然重申了 AOI 利潤率指南在 23 年至少持平。因此,如果我們不局限於應用商店費用的變化,那麼可能推動上行或下行的主要搖擺因素是什麼?是否還有進一步收緊成本結構的空間?我們應該如何權衡傳統品牌的收入增長與支出節制之間的關係?你在那裡的前景是什麼樣的?
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. So in terms of margins, first of all, we're committed to maintaining flat or better margins for the year. And so that is one of our guiding principles around this.
當然。因此,就利潤率而言,首先,我們致力於保持全年持平或更好的利潤率。因此,這是我們圍繞此的指導原則之一。
I think the biggest swing factor for the year is what I just talked about with Alexandra's question, which is really around Tinder's trajectory. Tinder is a very high-margin business. And the more growth we get out of Tinder, the more higher margin we get out of Tinder, the more that's going to help improve the overall company margin. So that's the biggest swing factor. So obviously, driving growth at Tinder is job one.
我認為今年最大的搖擺因素是我剛才談到的亞歷山德拉的問題,這實際上是圍繞著 Tinder 的軌跡。 Tinder 是一項利潤率非常高的業務。我們從 Tinder 獲得的增長越多,我們從 Tinder 獲得的利潤就越高,這對提高公司整體利潤率的幫助就越大。所以這是最大的搖擺因素。很明顯,推動 Tinder 的增長是首要任務。
In terms of your question around cost savings, we are being very disciplined around cost, very thoughtful on the marketing side, on expenses generally. There's always more you can do, but our first goal is to drive revenue growth. And so we want to be thoughtful about the trade-offs generally between cost savings and revenue growth, and we're going to protect the ability to continue to grow revenue. Because as I said before, that really is job one within the confines of maintaining flat or better margins for the company for the full year.
就您關於成本節約的問題而言,我們在成本方面非常嚴格,在營銷方面非常周到,在一般費用方面。您總是可以做更多的事情,但我們的首要目標是推動收入增長。因此,我們希望考慮成本節約和收入增長之間的權衡取捨,我們將保護繼續增加收入的能力。因為正如我之前所說,這確實是在保持公司全年利潤持平或更高利潤率範圍內的首要工作。
In terms of the trade-offs we're making at the Evergreen Brands, that is obviously a source of reducing marketing spend there to spend more at marketing at Tinder and Hinge. And as we see momentum in those businesses, it makes us want to spend more into those marketing efforts. And so we're trying to calibrate that, which is our job in terms of managing a portfolio.
就我們在 Evergreen Brands 所做的權衡而言,這顯然是減少那裡的營銷支出以增加 Tinder 和 Hinge 營銷支出的來源。當我們看到這些業務的發展勢頭時,這讓我們想在這些營銷工作上投入更多。因此,我們正在嘗試對其進行校準,這是我們在管理投資組合方面的工作。
Right now, I feel like our outlook for the year contemplates a sufficient level of marketing spend at the Evergreen Brands to maintain declines in those brands that are manageable and allow us to invest at the levels we feel we need to invest in at both Hinge, Tinder as well as some new initiatives like The League and the new app that we're talking about rolling out in the summer. So I think all of that is appropriately incorporated into our outlook for the year and leaves us with the ability to generate flat or better margins, as we've been saying.
現在,我覺得我們今年的展望考慮了 Evergreen Brands 的營銷支出水平,以維持那些可控品牌的下降,並允許我們在我們認為需要投資的水平上投資 Hinge, Tinder 以及一些新舉措,例如 The League 和我們正在討論的夏季推出的新應用程序。因此,我認為所有這些都適當地納入了我們今年的展望,並使我們有能力產生持平或更高的利潤率,正如我們一直在說的那樣。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc.
我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Justin Patterson。
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Perhaps a multipart big-picture question. BK, you're not alone in saying AI is a meaningful platform shift like mobile. Match does have a solid history of navigating platform shifts, albeit with new brands often emerging and legacy brands slowing. Can you tease out how you think this can transform the dating experience and how it changes the opportunity set through the existing brands and some new ones you're incubating? Is this something you can build organically or acquire your way into? And then for Gary, how does AI change your expense profile over time?
也許是一個多部分的大問題。 BK,你不是唯一一個說 AI 是像移動設備一樣有意義的平台轉變的人。儘管新品牌經常出現而傳統品牌卻在放緩,但 Match 確實擁有應對平台轉變的堅實歷史。你能梳理一下你認為這會如何改變約會體驗,以及它如何改變現有品牌和你正在孵化的一些新品牌所帶來的機會嗎?這是您可以有機構建或獲得的東西嗎?然後對於 Gary,AI 如何隨著時間的推移改變您的費用狀況?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Great, Justin. I'll take the first part of that question. Look, I think the last couple of months had been super inspiring for me personally as well as our teams. We're aligned with our leadership team and our management team around AI that -- thinking that AI could be transformative to the total category.
太好了,賈斯汀。我將回答這個問題的第一部分。看,我認為過去幾個月對我個人和我們的團隊都非常鼓舞人心。我們與我們的領導團隊和我們的管理團隊圍繞 AI 保持一致——認為 AI 可以對整個類別進行變革。
The way that I guess I think about it is like -- is the dater experience and improving that dater experience by utilizing AI. Maybe we can like step through an experience of some of our daters are in our apps, and then they sometimes need help getting unstuck or thinking about, "How do I open up a conversation?" And usually, they'll phone a friend. And sometimes, that friend is not available.
我想我思考它的方式就像——是約會者的體驗,並通過利用人工智能來改善約會者的體驗。也許我們可以逐步了解一些約會者在我們的應用程序中的體驗,然後他們有時需要幫助才能擺脫困境或思考“我如何開始對話?”通常,他們會打電話給朋友。有時,那個朋友不在。
Imagine that AI can instantaneously help instead, maybe helping and nudging people to pick great date ideas, opening up a conversation, how to like continue that conversation, in some cases, closing out a conversation and not ghosting someone in our apps. It's really still very early, but the team is focusing on how this can transform dating.
想像一下,人工智能可以立即提供幫助,也許可以幫助和推動人們選擇很棒的約會想法,開始對話,如何繼續對話,在某些情況下,結束對話而不是在我們的應用程序中隱藏某人。現在真的還很早,但團隊正在關注這如何改變約會。
But one thing that I do want to clarify is that I do not believe that AI can replace IRL dating. True human connections are core to our business, and we think that we can utilize AI to help people get together in the real world. We have a great team, including our new CTO, working on this, and we're embracing really new exciting ideas. We're really excited to present more updates to you all in the upcoming quarters. And we have to make some decisions around either we build, we buy or we partner, but it's still too early to say.
但我想澄清的一件事是,我不相信人工智能可以取代現實約會。真正的人際關係是我們業務的核心,我們認為我們可以利用人工智能幫助人們在現實世界中聚在一起。我們有一個很棒的團隊,包括我們的新首席技術官,致力於此,我們正在接受真正令人興奮的新想法。我們很高興在接下來的幾個季度向大家介紹更多更新。我們必須圍繞構建、購買或合作做出一些決定,但現在下結論還為時過早。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Yes. And just picking up on that in terms of expenses, it is kind of early to say what is going to happen from AI in terms of expenses, just because we don't know exactly what kind of efforts are going to be needed. I would point out a couple of things.
是的。就費用而言,現在就說人工智能會在費用方面發生什麼還為時過早,因為我們不知道到底需要什麼樣的努力。我要指出幾件事。
Obviously, one, we're mindful that some of these areas of AI and the folks needed to undertake those efforts can be very expensive. And so we want to do this in a smart way. Certainly, we'll try to leverage outside vendors, third parties wherever we can. And I'm sure more and more of those are going to crop up. So we're not planning to build a massive team focused on these efforts and really balloon expenses as a result of that.
顯然,第一,我們注意到人工智能的某些領域以及從事這些工作所需的人員可能非常昂貴。所以我們想以一種聰明的方式來做到這一點。當然,我們會盡可能地利用外部供應商和第三方。而且我相信越來越多的人會突然出現。因此,我們不打算建立一個專注於這些努力的龐大團隊,並因此真正增加開支。
I will also tell you that we have significant capabilities in this area already at Tinder as well as at Hyperconnect, so that we can leverage some of those capabilities. And certainly a place like Hyperconnect, where in Korea, these types of engineers are much more readily available and much less costly, gives us a good platform to expand those efforts. And so we're very mindful of trying to keep the expenses under control as we build out the AI efforts, and we'll leverage either outside parties or the capabilities we already have like the Hyperconnect business.
我還會告訴你,我們在 Tinder 和 Hyperconnect 已經在這個領域擁有重要的能力,因此我們可以利用其中的一些能力。當然,像 Hyperconnect 這樣的地方,在韓國,這些類型的工程師更容易獲得,成本也低得多,為我們提供了一個很好的平台來擴大這些努力。因此,我們非常注意在構建 AI 工作時盡量控制開支,我們將利用外部各方或我們已經擁有的功能,如 Hyperconnect 業務。
We probably have time for 1 or 2 more questions -- sorry, go ahead, operator.
我們可能還有時間再回答 1 或 2 個問題——抱歉,請繼續,接線員。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Brad Erickson with RBC.
我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Brad Erickson。
Bradley D. Erickson - Analyst
Bradley D. Erickson - Analyst
Just a couple of follow-ups here. I think historically, the company had looked at some of these features geared for women and had largely, I guess, not really decided to pursue them. So I guess just what's changed? Maybe speak to any testing data from these early efforts to kind of reinforce the thesis there. And how do you think about payer penetration on that -- those products relative to Tinder overall?
這裡只是一些後續行動。我認為,從歷史上看,該公司已經研究了其中一些面向女性的功能,但我猜,在很大程度上,並沒有真正決定追求這些功能。所以我想到底發生了什麼變化?也許可以談談這些早期努力的任何測試數據,以加強那裡的論點。您如何看待付款人在這方面的滲透率——這些產品相對於 Tinder 的整體影響?
And then I might have missed it from earlier, but just quickly on the free cash flow guide. I think that was a little bigger step down versus the revenue or EBITDA. So maybe just anything to call out there that's driving that, any comments on sort of general free cash conversion relative to EBITDA going forward.
然後我可能從早些時候就錯過了它,但很快就看到了自由現金流量指南。我認為與收入或 EBITDA 相比,這是一個更大的降幅。因此,也許只有任何需要指出的是推動這一點的任何事情,關於未來與 EBITDA 相關的一般自由現金轉換的任何評論。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Sure. Why don't I take that, and I'll try to do it relatively quickly. Look, on the women's experience, I think maybe there's a little confusion around 2 things. Women's experience on dating apps has always been front and center and very important. It's important to attract and retain women, and that obviously helps attract and retain men. And so we've always been very focused on that aspect of the experience.
當然。為什麼我不接受它,我會嘗試相對較快地完成它。聽著,根據女性的經驗,我認為可能圍繞兩件事存在一些混淆。女性在約會應用程序上的體驗一直是最重要的。吸引和留住女性很重要,這顯然有助於吸引和留住男性。因此,我們一直非常關注體驗的這一方面。
That's a little different than women making the first move and things like that. What we're talking about really is the fundamental experience of women on the dating apps. Are they finding the people that they want to find? Are they treated respectfully? Those are the things that are really critical to women enjoying their experience on the app. And that's really what we're focused on and talking about.
這與女性邁出第一步之類的有點不同。我們真正談論的是女性在約會應用程序上的基本體驗。他們是否找到了他們想找到的人?他們受到尊重嗎?這些對於女性在應用程序上享受體驗來說是非常重要的。這才是我們真正關注和談論的。
So it's not a payers' thing. It's not a revenue thing in particular. That's not to say there won't be some levels of revenue associated with improving the women's experience. But we're talking about making the experience at Tinder, in particular, really something that women enjoy and come back for and seek out, and that's what we're trying to evolve. And that's going to be a large body of work over multiple quarters. It's not just one feature here or there.
所以這不是付款人的事情。這不是特別的收入問題。這並不是說改善女性體驗不會帶來一定程度的收入。但我們正在談論讓 Tinder 的體驗,特別是真正讓女性喜歡並回來尋找的東西,這就是我們正在努力發展的。這將是多個季度的大量工作。這不僅僅是這里或那裡的一個功能。
In terms of your question on free cash flow, we are becoming more and more of a cash taxpayer. So that might be something that people have underestimated. But I do think we're going to generate approximately $800 million this year, and I do think that number will increase over time. So there's a significant amount of free cash flow generation, which factors into our capital allocation policy.
就你關於自由現金流的問題而言,我們正變得越來越像一個現金納稅人。所以這可能是人們低估的事情。但我確實認為我們今年將產生大約 8 億美元,而且我確實認為這個數字會隨著時間的推移而增加。因此,產生了大量的自由現金流,這會影響我們的資本配置政策。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Cory Carpenter。
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Gary, you touched on the app stores a bit in your prepared remarks, but hoping you could expand on your thoughts around some of the developments like the Epic and Apple's appeals or like Google's concessions in the U.K., et cetera and just what you think the potential impact could be to Match.
加里,你在準備好的發言中稍微提到了應用程序商店,但希望你能圍繞一些發展展開你的想法,比如 Epic 和蘋果的吸引力,或者谷歌在英國的讓步,等等,以及你認為潛在的影響可能是匹配。
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
Gary Swidler - President & CFO
This is an important question, Cory, and they left you like 1 minute for me to answer it, but I'll do the best that I can. So look, there's been a lot of positive developments in terms of app store over the last 6 months in a lot of different jurisdictions. There's stuff going on in the Court systems in different places. There's stuff going on in the legislative process, and there's a lot of developments.
這是一個重要的問題,科里,他們留給你大約 1 分鐘的時間讓我回答,但我會盡力而為。所以看,在過去的 6 個月裡,在許多不同的司法管轄區,應用商店方面出現了很多積極的發展。不同地方的法院系統正在發生一些事情。立法過程中正在發生一些事情,並且有很多發展。
We'll be the first to admit that the progress in these areas are a lot slower than any of us would like. The wheels of justice turn slowly, is an expression for a reason. But ultimately, we think that we're going to get to a point where there's going to be meaningful changes to the app store ecosystem to make them more fair and to benefit consumers.
我們是第一個承認這些領域的進展比我們任何人希望的要慢得多的人。正義的車輪緩緩轉動,是有原因的表達。但最終,我們認為我們將到達一個地步,即應用商店生態系統將發生有意義的變化,使它們更加公平並使消費者受益。
So you mentioned Epic-Apple. There's also been things going on in the U.K., CMA decision as well as other things in various markets that we think make it likely that developers will, at a minimum, be able to offer alternative payment systems to customers, which we think will result in improved conversion and also really enhance customer satisfaction. So we're looking forward to that.
所以你提到了 Epic-Apple。英國也發生了一些事情,CMA 的決定以及我們認為各個市場的其他事情使得開發商至少能夠為客戶提供替代支付系統,我們認為這將導致提高轉化率並真正提高客戶滿意度。所以我們很期待。
In the EU and in some other jurisdictions like India, we think there's going to be changes that are going to result in app store fee changes as well, particularly as a result of the DMA in Europe or in the EU in 2024. So that's a big one to monitor, which I think people generally are aware of. I don't know specifically if this Epic-Apple case is going to result in app store fee relief, but it's very possible. It remains to be seen if that's going to lead ultimately to app store fee relief.
在歐盟和印度等其他一些司法管轄區,我們認為將會發生一些變化,這些變化也會導致應用商店費用發生變化,特別是由於 2024 年歐洲或歐盟的 DMA。所以這是要監控的大系統,我認為人們通常都知道這一點。我不知道這個 Epic-Apple 案例是否會導致應用商店費用減免,但這是很有可能的。這是否會最終導致應用商店費用減免還有待觀察。
And then when you sort of factor all this in with all these different changes and things going on in all these different jurisdictions, I think what it means is the app stores have to ask themselves a question, which is, are they going to respond to these changes in a piecemeal basis and have different policies and fee structures and approaches in different markets? Or are they going to have one global policy that addresses all of these really significant and valid concerns and change app store policies to reflect a more fair app store ecosystem for consumers?
然後當你將所有這些不同的變化和在所有這些不同的司法管轄區發生的事情考慮在內時,我認為這意味著應用程序商店必須問自己一個問題,即他們是否會回應這些變化是零星的,並且在不同的市場有不同的政策和收費結構和方法?或者他們是否會制定一項全球政策來解決所有這些真正重要和有效的問題,並改變應用商店政策以反映對消費者更公平的應用商店生態系統?
And so that's what remains to be seen. I think that probably plays out over the next 12 months, and so we need to keep watching it. But I know there's a lot of moving pieces on that. I know you're trying to follow it closely. And so I really do appreciate your efforts in that regard. And we'll continue to update on it.
因此,這還有待觀察。我認為這可能會在接下來的 12 個月內發揮作用,因此我們需要繼續關注它。但我知道這上面有很多動人的部分。我知道你正試圖密切關注它。因此,我非常感謝您在這方面所做的努力。我們將繼續更新它。
We'll take one more quick one.
我們再拿一個快點。
Operator
Operator
The last question will come from Thomas Doheny with Stifel.
最後一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Thomas Doheny。
Thomas James Doheny - Research Analyst
Thomas James Doheny - Research Analyst
I just have one quickly. Is it possible to get a little bit more color on the new app that you guys are launching this summer?
我只有一個很快。是否有可能在你們今年夏天推出的新應用程序中獲得更多色彩?
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard J. Kim - CEO & Director
I can take that question. We have a big announcement planned for later this month, and we're really looking forward to telling everyone about it then. I'm personally really excited about it. So that's all that I can say on that one.
我可以接受這個問題。我們計劃在本月晚些時候發布重大公告,我們非常期待屆時將其告知所有人。我個人對此感到非常興奮。這就是我能說的。
But to end and close this out, I want to thank everyone for joining our call and really appreciate everyone's time.
但為了結束並結束這件事,我要感謝大家加入我們的電話會議,非常感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。