使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Match Group Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.
美好的一天,歡迎參加 Match Group 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,此事件正在記錄中。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Tanny Shelburne, SVP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Tanny Shelburne。請繼續。
Tanny Shelburne
Tanny Shelburne
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Today's call will be led by CEO, Bernard Kim; and CFO and COO, Gary Swidler. They'll make a few brief remarks, and then we'll open it up for questions.
謝謝接線員,大家早上好。今天的電話會議將由首席執行官 Bernard Kim 主持;首席財務官兼首席運營官 Gary Swidler。他們會做一些簡短的評論,然後我們會打開它來提問。
Before we start, I need to remind everyone that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and future performance. These forward-looking statements may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed today. Some of these risks have been set forth in our earnings release and our periodic reports filed with the SEC.
在開始之前,我需要提醒大家,在這次電話會議中,我們可能會討論我們的前景和未來表現。這些前瞻性陳述之前可能會出現我們預期、我們相信、我們預期或類似陳述等詞語。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,我們的實際結果可能與今天表達的觀點存在重大差異。其中一些風險已在我們的收益發布和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中列出。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to BK.
有了這個,我想把電話轉給 BK。
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Tanny. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. I'm delighted to be on our second earnings call of the company. The time has flown by, and I attribute that to the team coming together making decisive calls and taking real action to accelerate momentum.
謝謝,坦尼。大家早上好,感謝您加入今天的電話會議。我很高興參加我們公司的第二次財報電話會議。時間已經過去了,我將其歸因於團隊齊心協力做出決定性的決定並採取實際行動來加速發展勢頭。
As our third quarter results demonstrate, we have a lot to be proud of. When you exclude FX impact, we saw double-digit growth. There is still a lot of work to do. And while the macroeconomic environment is proving more challenging, we have a great team and an excellent portfolio of brands. That makes me optimistic that we can create significant long-term shareholder value.
正如我們第三季度的業績所表明的那樣,我們有很多值得驕傲的地方。當您排除外匯影響時,我們看到了兩位數的增長。還有很多工作要做。雖然宏觀經濟環境被證明更具挑戰性,但我們擁有一支優秀的團隊和優秀的品牌組合。這讓我對我們可以創造重要的長期股東價值感到樂觀。
After just a few months, the team at Tinder is gelling well together, and there has been a palpable change in the culture. We have made some big changes to improve organizational efficiencies and operations to get the team shipping product and accelerating growth. Some examples of this are bringing the revenue and product teams together so they're collaborating and supporting one another as one team in our shared mission. The marketing team is also working with and challenging the product teams to ensure that we're building features that users can get excited about.
僅僅幾個月後,Tinder 的團隊就很好地融合在一起,文化發生了明顯的變化。我們進行了一些重大改變,以提高組織效率和運營,以使團隊交付產品並加速增長。這方面的一些例子是將收入和產品團隊聚集在一起,以便他們在我們共同的使命中作為一個團隊相互協作和支持。營銷團隊還與產品團隊合作並挑戰產品團隊,以確保我們正在構建讓用戶感到興奮的功能。
Whenever reorganizations occur, there's always a risk of attrition. But with this new team in place, we haven't seen any. That's promising. We aren't dealing with massive disruption. Instead, we are getting more products into testing, working together to eventually return Tinder to previous growth levels. That won't happen overnight, but we are moving in the right direction.
每當發生重組時,總會有流失的風險。但是有了這個新團隊,我們還沒有看到任何人。這是有希望的。我們不是在處理大規模的中斷。相反,我們正在讓更多產品進入測試階段,共同努力最終將 Tinder 恢復到以前的增長水平。這不會在一夜之間發生,但我們正朝著正確的方向前進。
I am excited about how our 2023 road map is beginning to take shape, which centers in 4 key areas: providing our women users more tailored experiences; targeting Gen Z through various product initiatives; evaluating virtual goods and coins to unlock untapped power users; and finally, creating more targeted monetization opportunities, including an expanded focus on users who have not previously paid.
我對我們的 2023 年路線圖如何開始形成感到興奮,該路線圖集中在 4 個關鍵領域:為女性用戶提供更量身定制的體驗;通過各種產品計劃瞄準 Z 世代;評估虛擬商品和硬幣以解鎖未開發的超級用戶;最後,創造更有針對性的貨幣化機會,包括擴大對以前未付費用戶的關注。
Additionally, we have let the market tell the brand narrative about Tinder for too long. We recognize that a powerful Tinder narrative is a critical component to accelerating growth again. Going forward, we are working to activate levers across global marketing brand campaigns to bring to life the endless Tinder success stories over the past 10 years. The marketing team is working hand in hand with product to redefine the narrative for the next generation of singles.
此外,我們讓市場講述關於 Tinder 的品牌敘述太久了。我們認識到,強大的 Tinder 敘述是再次加速增長的關鍵組成部分。展望未來,我們正努力在全球營銷品牌活動中發揮槓桿作用,讓過去 10 年中無窮無盡的 Tinder 成功故事栩栩如生。營銷團隊正在與產品攜手合作,為下一代單身人士重新定義敘事。
While it will take some time to see measurable changes overall, I fully believe in the team's ability to experiment, learn, build and ultimately deliver the best dating experiences for our users. Tinder has transformed the dating category over the last 10 years, and I am committed to making the next 10 even more exciting.
雖然需要一些時間才能看到總體上可衡量的變化,但我完全相信團隊有能力進行實驗、學習、構建並最終為我們的用戶提供最佳約會體驗。在過去的 10 年中,Tinder 改變了約會類別,我致力於讓接下來的 10 年更令人興奮。
Our search for a full-time CEO at Tinder is ongoing. We've met a broad set of talented and diverse leaders with a deep bench of consumer digital experience. I'm leading the charge on the search. But it's worth pointing out that we've already done a lot of the hard work that a new CEO typically has to do like establishing the leadership team, making the organization more nimble and increasing collaboration. It is critically important to me that this new leader can seamlessly move into the role and work with the current team with minimal disruption with a focus on growth and profitability. This is a role that I want to be very deliberate about. So in the meantime, I will remain interim CEO. The business plans are moving forward, and I'm expecting execution and performance will continue to improve over the next coming months.
我們正在尋找 Tinder 的全職 CEO。我們遇到了眾多才華橫溢、多元化的領導者,他們擁有深厚的消費者數字體驗。我帶頭進行搜索。但值得指出的是,我們已經完成了很多新 CEO 通常必須做的艱苦工作,比如建立領導團隊、使組織更加靈活和加強協作。對我來說至關重要的是,這位新領導者可以無縫地進入角色並與當前團隊合作,同時將乾擾降到最低,並專注於增長和盈利能力。這是一個我想非常慎重考慮的角色。因此,與此同時,我將繼續擔任臨時 CEO。業務計劃正在向前推進,我預計未來幾個月的執行和績效將繼續改善。
Hinge continued to be a bright spot this quarter. They are delivering on their localization strategy to grow users and market share globally with a successful launch in Germany and reaching new markets throughout Europe. In October, Hinge hit record downloads in both the U.S. and globally. In the U.S., where Hinge has quickly become the third most popular dating app by downloads, the brand continues to innovate on the product experience. After the successful launch of audio prompts last year, the team was quick to roll out video prompts and prompt polls, giving daters more ways to express themselves and hopefully land a date.
鉸鏈繼續成為本季度的亮點。他們正在實施其本地化戰略,以在全球範圍內增加用戶和市場份額,並在德國成功推出並進入整個歐洲的新市場。 10 月,Hinge 在美國和全球的下載量均創下紀錄。在美國,Hinge 已迅速成為下載量排名第三的約會應用程序,該品牌繼續在產品體驗方面進行創新。在去年成功推出音頻提示後,團隊迅速推出了視頻提示和提示民意調查,為約會者提供了更多表達自己的方式,並有望找到約會對象。
Later this month, Hinge will start testing a new premium subscription tier. We have decided to hold back the full launch of the new tier until Q1, the peak season for dating. I'm really excited about how it's coming together, and I'm confident that it will resonate with the user base and provide an opportunity to drive RPP meaningfully higher.
本月晚些時候,Hinge 將開始測試新的高級訂閱層。我們決定將新等級的全面推出推遲到第一季度,也就是約會的旺季。我對它的融合方式感到非常興奮,我相信它會引起用戶群的共鳴,並提供一個推動 RPP 有意義地更高的機會。
As a company, we have achieved a lot in a short amount of time. We have worked diligently to right the ship at Tinder, pushed forward with our growth plans at Hinge and have continued to navigate the current challenging operating environment. At the same time, there is a significant amount of work to be done and innovations to be built that will further accelerate our growth. We are currently in the middle of our planning process for 2023 across the portfolio, and I look forward to sharing more during our next earnings call.
作為一家公司,我們在很短的時間內取得了很多成就。我們在 Tinder 努力工作,推動我們在 Hinge 的增長計劃,並繼續在當前充滿挑戰的運營環境中航行。與此同時,還有大量工作要做,要建立創新,這將進一步加速我們的發展。我們目前正處於整個投資組合的 2023 年規劃過程中,我期待在下一次財報電話會議上分享更多信息。
One thing I did want to call out as I spent more time with the business is we have different brands in different stages of growth. Given the current macro environment, we must focus our investment in brands that are growing and pull back in areas that are not driving growth. This has become a strategic imperative for us in 2023. I'll be able to share more on this strategy after we complete our strategic plans for next year.
隨著我花更多時間在業務上,我確實想指出的一件事是,我們在不同的成長階段擁有不同的品牌。鑑於當前的宏觀環境,我們必須將投資重點放在正在增長的品牌上,並在不推動增長的領域撤回。這已成為我們 2023 年的戰略要務。在我們完成明年的戰略計劃後,我將能夠更多地分享這一戰略。
Our world has never been more connected, and I'm so proud that we are continuing to deliver on our company's mission of connecting millions of people around the world in meaningful ways. As I've told everyone before, I'm passionate about people, culture and product, and look forward to improving the overall user experience across the portfolio with our talented group of technologists around the world.
我們的世界從未像現在這樣緊密相連,我為我們繼續履行公司以有意義的方式連接全球數百萬人的使命而感到自豪。正如我之前告訴大家的那樣,我對人、文化和產品充滿熱情,並期待與我們在世界各地的才華橫溢的技術專家團隊一起改善整個產品組合的整體用戶體驗。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Gary.
有了這個,我會把它交給加里。
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Thanks, BK, and hello again, everyone. In a tough environment, we had a solid Q3 with total revenue of $810 million, up 1% year-over-year. The FX headwinds were severe once again as our revenue would have been $883 million, up 10% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis. The FX impact was $8 million worse than we expected when we provided our Q3 outlook on our August earnings call.
謝謝,BK,大家好。在艱難的環境中,我們的第三季度業績穩健,總收入為 8.1 億美元,同比增長 1%。外匯逆風再次嚴峻,因為在外匯中性的基礎上,我們的收入將達到 8.83 億美元,同比增長 10%。當我們在 8 月份的財報電話會議上提供第三季度展望時,外匯影響比我們預期的要差 800 萬美元。
Our direct revenue also grew 1% year-over-year. It grew 5% year-over-year in the Americas with growth at Tinder, Hinge, BLK and Chispa but declines at the Established Brands. Direct revenue declined 1% year-over-year in Europe but was up 15% on an FX-neutral basis driven by Tinder and Hinge. Direct revenue declined 5% in APAC and Other but was up 16% on an FX-neutral basis driven by Tinder.
我們的直接收入也同比增長了 1%。它在美洲同比增長 5%,Tinder、Hinge、BLK 和 Chispa 增長,但成熟品牌下降。歐洲的直接收入同比下降 1%,但在 Tinder 和 Hinge 推動的外匯中性基礎上增長了 15%。亞太地區和其他地區的直接收入下降了 5%,但在 Tinder 推動的外匯中性基礎上增長了 16%。
Total payers were 16.5 million, an increase of 2% from the prior year quarter. Payers were down 1% year-over-year in each of the Americas and Europe and up 12% in APAC and Other. Tinder payer additions grew stronger than we had expected while our Established Brands, including Match, Meetic, OkCupid and Plenty of Fish saw year-over-year payer declines of over 15% in aggregate.
總付款人為 1650 萬,比去年同期增長 2%。美洲和歐洲的付款人同比下降 1%,亞太地區和其他地區的付款人增加 12%。 Tinder 付款人的增加比我們預期的要強勁,而我們的成熟品牌,包括 Match、Meetic、OkCupid 和 Plenty of Fish,付款人的同比下降總計超過 15%。
RPP was flat year-over-year at $16.02 in Q3. RPP was up 6% in the Americas, a 1 point sequential improvement, reflecting higher average rates for subscriptions and increased average à la carte purchases per payer at Tinder and Hinge.
第三季度 RPP 與去年同期持平,為 16.02 美元。美洲的 RPP 增長了 6%,環比提高了 1 個百分點,這反映了更高的平均訂閱費率以及 Tinder 和 Hinge 每位付款人的平均點菜購買量增加。
RPP was flat year-over-year in Europe, where contributions from Tinder and Hyperconnect were offset by the strength of the U.S. dollar compared to the euro and the British pound. RPP was down 14% in APAC and Other due to the strength of the dollar relative to the yen and the Turkish lira. On an FX-neutral basis, RPP was up 9% company-wide again in Q3, up 16% in Europe and 4% in APAC and Other.
歐洲的 RPP 同比持平,Tinder 和 Hyperconnect 的貢獻被美元相對於歐元和英鎊的走強所抵消。由於美元相對於日元和土耳其里拉走強,亞太地區和其他地區的 RPP 下降了 14%。在外匯中性的基礎上,第三季度全公司的 RPP 再次增長 9%,歐洲增長 16%,亞太地區和其他地區增長 4%。
Tinder performed slightly above our expectations in the quarter, delivering direct revenue of $460 million, up 6% year-over-year, 16% on an FX-neutral basis. Tinder had payers growth of 7% year-over-year, adding 700,000 payers to 11.1 million and a 1% RPP decline year-over-year in the quarter, which again shows the impact of FX.
Tinder 在本季度的表現略高於我們的預期,直接收入為 4.6 億美元,同比增長 6%,在外匯中性基礎上增長 16%。 Tinder 的付款人同比增長 7%,本季度增加 700,000 名付款人至 1110 萬,RPP 同比下降 1%,這再次顯示了外彙的影響。
Tinder RPP was up 8% on an FX-neutral basis. Recall that Tinder made several beneficial paywall and other optimizations in Q3 '21, which drove record sequential payer additions and strong revenue in that quarter. We're now facing that challenging comp.
在外匯中性的基礎上,Tinder RPP 上漲了 8%。回想一下,Tinder 在 21 年第三季度進行了幾項有益的付費專區和其他優化,這推動了該季度創紀錄的連續付款人增加和強勁的收入。我們現在正面臨著具有挑戰性的比賽。
All other brands direct revenue was down 5% year-over-year in Q3, driven by an 8% payer decline and 3% RPP growth. Hinge, BLK and Chispa continue to drive the growth. We continue to pull back on marketing spend for some of our Established Brands. And Plenty of Fish, in particular, continued to be impacted by macroeconomic conditions.
受付款人下降 8% 和 RPP 增長 3% 的推動,第三季度所有其他品牌的直接收入同比下降 5%。 Hinge、BLK 和 Chispa 繼續推動增長。我們將繼續縮減一些已建立品牌的營銷支出。尤其是大量魚類,繼續受到宏觀經濟狀況的影響。
In Asia, Hyperconnect's Azar app revenue was down 7% year-over-year. However, on an FX-neutral basis, it was up more than 10% due to the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Turkish lira and the Japanese yen.
在亞洲,Hyperconnect 的 Azar 應用收入同比下降 7%。然而,在外匯中性的基礎上,由於美元兌土耳其里拉和日元走強,它上漲了 10% 以上。
Hakuna continues to face challenges with revenue down low double digits year-over-year. Payers continue to be affected by market softness in Japan with only a slight year-over-year increase in revenue but down more than 15% as reported.
Hakuna 繼續面臨挑戰,收入同比下降兩位數。付款人繼續受到日本市場疲軟的影響,收入同比僅略有增長,但據報導下降了 15% 以上。
Indirect revenue was $14 million in the quarter, flat to Q2 but down 11% year-over-year. Operating income was $211 million in Q3 with margins of 26%. Adjusted operating income was flat year-over-year at $284 million, representing a margin of 35%.
本季度的間接收入為 1400 萬美元,與第二季度持平,但同比下降 11%。第三季度的營業收入為 2.11 億美元,利潤率為 26%。調整後的營業收入與去年同期持平,為 2.84 億美元,利潤率為 35%。
Overall expenses, including SBC expense, grew 3% year-over-year in Q3. Cost of revenue grew 6% year-over-year, primarily due to higher app store fees, including the $8 million placed into the escrow for the Google litigation. Cost of revenue represented 31% of total revenue, up 2 points year-over-year.
第三季度,包括 SBC 費用在內的總體費用同比增長 3%。收入成本同比增長 6%,主要是由於應用商店費用增加,包括為谷歌訴訟支付的 800 萬美元託管費用。收入成本佔總收入的 31%,同比增長 2 個百分點。
Selling and marketing spend decreased $24 million or 16% year-over-year, the second consecutive quarter where we've seen a year-over-year reduction as we continue to reduce marketing spend at our more Established Brands and to show ROI discipline overall. Selling and marketing spend was down 3 points year-over-year as a percentage of total revenue to 16%.
銷售和營銷支出同比減少 2400 萬美元或 16%,這是我們連續第二個季度看到同比減少,因為我們繼續減少更成熟品牌的營銷支出並顯示整體投資回報率紀律.銷售和營銷支出佔總收入的百分比同比下降 3 個百分點至 16%。
G&A expense rose $11 million or 10% year-over-year. G&A comprised 14% of revenue, up 1 point from the prior year quarter. The increase in G&A expense reflects lower legal fees, but higher compensation and headcount expense as well as an increase in travel expenses of $4 million as we continue to return to a more normal cadence of business travel.
G&A 費用同比增長 1100 萬美元或 10%。 G&A 佔收入的 14%,比去年同期增長 1 個百分點。 G&A 費用的增加反映了較低的法律費用,但較高的薪酬和人員費用以及旅行費用增加了 400 萬美元,因為我們繼續恢復到更正常的商務旅行節奏。
Product development costs grew 31% year-over-year and were 11% of revenue as we increased headcount, particularly at Tinder and Hinge. Our gross leverage was 3.5x trailing adjusted operating income, and our net leverage was 3.1x at the end of Q3.
隨著員工人數的增加,產品開發成本同比增長 31%,佔收入的 11%,尤其是在 Tinder 和 Hinge。在第三季度末,我們的總槓桿率為 3.5 倍,而我們的淨槓桿率為 3.1 倍。
We ended the quarter with $398 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on hand. We deployed $267 million in the first month of Q3 to buy back 4.3 million of our shares at a VWAP of approximately $63 per share on a trade date basis. While the stock continued to decline significantly after we deployed our buyback, we believe our stock repurchase represents a sound long-term investment. We currently have 5.3 million shares remaining under our buyback authorization.
本季度末,我們手頭有 3.98 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資。我們在第三季度的第一個月部署了 2.67 億美元,在交易日以每股約 63 美元的 VWAP 回購了 430 萬股股票。雖然在我們進行回購後股票繼續大幅下跌,但我們認為我們的股票回購是一項穩健的長期投資。我們目前在回購授權下剩餘 530 萬股。
For Q4, we expect total revenue for Match Group of $780 million to $790 million. We anticipate nearly $70 million of year-over-year FX headwinds in Q4, meaning that total revenue growth would be nearly 9 points higher on an FX-neutral basis. This headwind is $14 million more than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call.
對於第四季度,我們預計 Match Group 的總收入為 7.8 億美元至 7.9 億美元。我們預計第四季度的外匯逆風同比將接近 7000 萬美元,這意味著在外匯中性的基礎上,總收入增長將高出近 9 個百分點。這一不利因素比我們上次財報電話會議時的預期多出 1400 萬美元。
We expect Tinder's Q4 direct revenue to be relatively flat year-over-year, up high single digits on an FX-neutral basis with mid-single-digit payers growth as ALC softness due to weak macroeconomic conditions impacts payers. We plan to adjust some of our merchandising tactics to help offset this. Historically, we've primarily offered large high-cost bundles of ALC features, for example, $30 bundles of Super Likes, which had been quite successful. In the current environment, we're adjusting our merchandising to emphasize smaller, lower-priced bundles to our users who see value in these ALC features, but are now more price-sensitive.
我們預計 Tinder 的第四季度直接收入將同比相對持平,在外匯中性的基礎上增長高個位數,由於宏觀經濟狀況疲軟導致 ALC 疲軟影響支付者,因此支付者增長中等個位數。我們計劃調整一些營銷策略以幫助抵消這一點。從歷史上看,我們主要提供大量高成本的 ALC 功能捆綁包,例如,30 美元的 Super Likes 捆綁包,已經相當成功。在當前環境下,我們正在調整我們的銷售,以向我們的用戶強調更小、更低價格的捆綁包,這些用戶看到這些 ALC 功能的價值,但現在對價格更加敏感。
All other brands direct revenue is expected to be down mid-single digits, but up low single digits on an FX-neutral basis. We expect Hinge, BLK and Chispa will continue to drive the growth, helping offset declines at the Established Brands as well as at Pairs and Hyperconnect due to FX. We expect indirect revenue to be down about 20% year-over-year, given pressures we're seeing building in the ad sales market. We expect adjusted operating income of $270 million to $275 million in Q4, representing margins of about 35% at the midpoint of the ranges.
所有其他品牌的直接收入預計將下降中個位數,但在外匯中性的基礎上將出現低個位數。我們預計 Hinge、BLK 和 Chispa 將繼續推動增長,幫助抵消因外匯而導致的知名品牌以及 Pairs 和 Hyperconnect 的下滑。鑑於我們在廣告銷售市場上看到的壓力,我們預計間接收入將同比下降約 20%。我們預計第四季度調整後的營業收入為 2.7 億美元至 2.75 億美元,利潤率在區間中點約為 35%。
In Q4, we plan to increase marketing spend at Hinge, both in the U.S. where we see terrific momentum as well as in its international expansion markets as per its plan. We also expect to spend up slightly at Tinder and to launch a new brand marketing campaign at our Match brand.
在第四季度,我們計劃增加在 Hinge 的營銷支出,無論是在我們看到強勁勢頭的美國,還是按照其計劃的國際擴張市場。我們還預計在 Tinder 上的支出會略有增加,並在我們的 Match 品牌上推出新的品牌營銷活動。
Given lower spend at our other brands, we expect meaningfully lower year-over-year aggregate selling and marketing spend again in Q4. While visibility into 2023 is challenging, we're focused on delivering 5% to 10% year-over-year revenue growth in 2023. We believe Tinder is positioned to deliver a similar range of growth. This equates to total revenue up high single digits to low double digits on an FX-neutral basis as we expect FX to be about a 3-point drag in 2023.
鑑於我們其他品牌的支出較低,我們預計第四季度的總銷售和營銷支出將再次顯著下降。儘管對 2023 年的可見性具有挑戰性,但我們專注於在 2023 年實現 5% 至 10% 的收入同比增長。我們相信 Tinder 能夠實現類似的增長范圍。這相當於在外匯中性的基礎上總收入從高個位數上升到低兩位數,因為我們預計 2023 年外匯將拖累大約 3 個百分點。
We anticipate that the Emerging Brands such as Hinge, Chispa and BLK will deliver sufficient growth to offset the declines at the Established Brands. We expect Hinge to deliver at least $100 million of incremental revenue in 2023. We expect the company as a whole to have accelerating year-over-year revenue growth as we move through 2023, driven by improved product execution leading to improved revenue momentum at Tinder.
我們預計,Hinge、Chispa 和 BLK 等新興品牌將帶來足夠的增長,以抵消成熟品牌的下滑。我們預計 Hinge 將在 2023 年實現至少 1 億美元的增量收入。我們預計,隨著產品執行的改進,Tinder 的收入勢頭得到改善,隨著我們進入 2023 年,整個公司的收入同比增長將加速.
The 5% to 10% top line range reflects 3 key variables. One, quality of product execution and the timing/success initiatives at Tinder. If Tinder executes well, growth will be on the higher end of the range. Two, the strength of the contribution from international expansion and the new premium tier at Hinge. And three, macroeconomic impacts, particularly on lowering consumers and especially on à la carte purchases primarily at Tinder.
5% 到 10% 的頂線範圍反映了 3 個關鍵變量。一,Tinder 的產品執行質量和時間/成功計劃。如果 Tinder 執行良好,增長將處於該範圍的高端。二是國際擴張的貢獻力量和鉸鏈的新優質層。第三,宏觀經濟影響,特別是對降低消費者的影響,尤其是對主要在 Tinder 上的單點購買。
On the AOI side, we're still calibrating spend levels and the investments that we want to make in 2023. We expect incremental sales and marketing spend at Hinge to support its global user growth, including in its expansion across Europe. Despite the investment, we expect Hinge to maintain AOI margins of 30% plus. We expect to spend incremental marketing at Tinder to support its product enhancements and drive user growth. Even with that, we're confident Tinder can continue to achieve AOI margins in the 50% range.
在 AOI 方面,我們仍在調整支出水平和我們希望在 2023 年進行的投資。我們預計 Hinge 增加的銷售和營銷支出將支持其全球用戶增長,包括其在歐洲的擴張。儘管進行了投資,但我們預計 Hinge 將保持 30% 以上的 AOI 利潤率。我們希望在 Tinder 上進行增量營銷,以支持其產品增強功能並推動用戶增長。即便如此,我們相信 Tinder 可以繼續實現 50% 範圍內的 AOI 利潤率。
We also intend to invest in The League, which we acquired earlier this year and believe has solid growth potential. We plan to invest in incubating a couple of new apps, which we're confident can better serve certain demographic groups than the existing offerings. To enable us to make the investments in our growth businesses, we plan to reduce operating expenses in other areas of the company to ensure that we can deliver at least flat year-over-year margins in 2023. This assumes no change to current app store policies.
我們還打算投資今年早些時候收購的聯盟,並認為該聯盟具有穩健的增長潛力。我們計劃投資孵化幾個新應用程序,我們相信這些應用程序可以比現有產品更好地服務於某些人口群體。為了使我們能夠對我們的增長業務進行投資,我們計劃減少公司其他領域的運營費用,以確保我們能夠在 2023 年實現至少持平的同比利潤率。這假設當前應用商店沒有變化政策。
We believe our business continues to achieve profitability and cash flow generation that has few parallels in consumer tech. We've always been conscious of delivering profitability and cash flow. But in the current operating environment, our focus on these items is being sharpened significantly. Our job for the coming year is to invest wisely in select growth opportunities and to manage costs judiciously elsewhere. And our team is up to the task.
我們相信,我們的業務將繼續實現在消費技術領域幾乎沒有可比性的盈利能力和現金流生成。我們一直有意識地提供盈利能力和現金流。但在目前的經營環境下,我們對這些項目的關注度正在顯著提高。我們來年的工作是明智地投資於選定的增長機會,並在其他地方明智地管理成本。我們的團隊可以勝任這項任務。
With that, I'll ask the operator to open the line for questions.
有了這個,我會要求接線員打開線路提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Deepak Mathivanan with Wolfe Research.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Deepak Mathivanan。
Deepak Mathivanan - Research Analyst
Deepak Mathivanan - Research Analyst
So I just wanted to ask a little bit more about the weakness in à la carte. Is this impact more acute to certain markets, given the macro headwinds have been relatively somewhat different in various regions? Or is this more broad-based? Can you also provide a little bit of additional context on some of the brands that's experiencing it?
所以我只是想多問一點關於點菜的弱點。鑑於各個地區的宏觀逆風相對有所不同,這種影響是否對某些市場更為嚴重?或者這是更廣泛的基礎?您能否就一些正在經歷它的品牌提供一些額外的背景信息?
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks for the question, Deepak. I want to start off by saying ALC purchases from our power users still remain very strong. And we're seeing strong subscriptions, and they remain very sticky. The main impact that we're seeing is from impulse and occasional buyers as they tend to be more price-sensitive, and they are impacted more by macroeconomic factors. As Gary pointed out, we've historically marketed our ALC products in large bundles, and that have led to significant purchases of these large bundles.
謝謝你的問題,迪帕克。我想首先說 ALC 從我們的高級用戶那裡購買仍然非常強勁。而且我們看到了強大的訂閱量,而且它們仍然非常具有粘性。我們看到的主要影響來自衝動和偶爾的買家,因為他們往往對價格更加敏感,並且更多地受到宏觀經濟因素的影響。正如 Gary 指出的那樣,我們歷來以大捆綁銷售我們的 ALC 產品,這導致大量購買這些大捆綁。
Therefore, we're moving quickly, and we're adjusting our ALC merchandising to emphasize smaller bundles to more price-sensitive customers. The customers that are most affected are younger users with less discretionary income, but we don't see a difference across geographies.
因此,我們正在快速行動,我們正在調整我們的 ALC 商品銷售,以向對價格更敏感的客戶強調更小的捆綁包。受影響最大的客戶是可自由支配收入較少的年輕用戶,但我們沒有看到不同地區的差異。
This is a reminder that conditions are ever changing. The macroeconomic environment is uncertain, and we have to be nimble and be able to react to our consumers throughout the year. I am impressed by the speed at which the Tinder can diagnose and react to these type of effects. The Tinder team is actively working on mitigating this as much as possible, but I expect this is going to take some time and iteration.
這是一個提醒,條件是不斷變化的。宏觀經濟環境不確定,我們必須靈活應對全年的消費者。 Tinder 診斷和應對這些類型的影響的速度給我留下了深刻的印象。 Tinder 團隊正在積極努力盡可能地緩解這種情況,但我預計這將需要一些時間和迭代。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from James Heaney with Jefferies.
我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 James Heaney。
James Edward Heaney - Equity Associate
James Edward Heaney - Equity Associate
I just have a couple of questions on Tinder. What drove the upside to revenue growth versus your expectations in Q3? And then for Q4, it sounds like you have a lot of pretty strong momentum behind Tinder. You're going to increase marketing spend, launching a slate of new products. Curious then why you're expecting more of a deceleration in Q4.
我只有幾個關於 Tinder 的問題。與您在第三季度的預期相比,是什麼推動了收入增長的上行空間?然後對於第四季度,聽起來你在 Tinder 背後有很多非常強勁的勢頭。您將增加營銷支出,推出一系列新產品。很好奇為什麼你預計第四季度會出現更多減速。
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Sure. Why don't I go ahead and take that? I think when you look at our Q3, we provided a pretty conservative outlook for the quarter, in part because of all the disruption that was going on at Tinder. We weren't sure exactly how things were going to react to all the changes that we made. And so we wanted to be a little bit conservative in the Q3 outlook, and I think that led to the improvement versus expectations.
當然。我為什麼不繼續接受呢?我認為,當您查看我們的第三季度時,我們對該季度的展望相當保守,部分原因是 Tinder 正在發生的所有中斷。我們不確定事情將如何對我們所做的所有更改做出反應。因此,我們希望對第三季度的前景保持一點保守,我認為這導致了與預期相比的改善。
In Q4, though, we're seeing a pretty significant deterioration in trends. Even over the last few weeks, we think the macro environment has gotten much more challenging, and we're nervous about it for Q4 and going forward. And so as a result of that, our outlook for Q4 is perhaps lower than you would have thought because we think the caution is warranted, given the change in trends and the weakness in the overall macro environment, which, as BK just said, is really affecting Tinder on the à la carte side as users, especially younger users, have less discretionary income are being a little bit more cautious in their purchasing. And we think that effect is going to linger for a period of time. We are taking actions to offset that, and I think some of those will help offset the effects of it, but it is going to take some time for that to work its way through as well.
不過,在第四季度,我們看到趨勢明顯惡化。即使在過去幾週,我們認為宏觀環境變得更具挑戰性,我們對第四季度和未來感到緊張。因此,我們對第四季度的展望可能低於您的預期,因為我們認為謹慎是有必要的,因為趨勢的變化和整體宏觀環境的疲軟,正如 BK 剛才所說,點菜方面確實影響了 Tinder,因為用戶,尤其是年輕用戶,可支配收入較少,在購買時更加謹慎。我們認為這種影響會持續一段時間。我們正在採取行動來抵消它,我認為其中一些將有助於抵消它的影響,但它也需要一些時間才能實現。
The other thing I would point out is that we have less product momentum going into Q4 than we typically have and certainly than we did last year when we had a very successful Q3 product adjustments that led to solid momentum in Q4. And remember, product work in the previous quarter or the previous 2 quarters gives us momentum into the next quarter. So we don't have the momentum we'd like to see or that we typically have leading into Q4, but it is building as the Tinder team makes more progress and influence new things. And so we think that, that momentum will build, and that gives us optimism that as the Tinder team continues to execute the way they need to execute, we'll start to see some improved momentum into 2023.
我要指出的另一件事是,我們進入第四季度的產品動力比通常情況下要少,當然也比去年我們進行了非常成功的第三季度產品調整,從而導致第四季度的強勁動力。請記住,上一季度或前兩個季度的產品工作為我們提供了進入下一季度的動力。因此,我們沒有我們希望看到的勢頭,或者我們通常會進入第四季度的勢頭,但隨著 Tinder 團隊取得更多進展並影響新事物,這種勢頭正在建設中。所以我們認為,這種勢頭將會建立,這讓我們樂觀地認為,隨著 Tinder 團隊繼續按照他們需要的方式執行,我們將開始看到到 2023 年的一些改善勢頭。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Mark Kelley with Stifel.
我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Kelley。
Mark Patrick Kelley - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Mark Patrick Kelley - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Great. I wanted to ask two. First one is the letter mentions an expanded an expanded advertising component of Tinder. Is that an area of focus again? And I guess what's the right way for us to think about advertising as a percent of the business over time?
偉大的。我想問兩個。第一個是信中提到了 Tinder 的擴展廣告組件。這又是一個焦點領域嗎?而且我想我們認為隨著時間的推移將廣告作為業務百分比的正確方法是什麼?
And then second, the letter sounded like you're a bit more optimistic on virtual goods and currencies, maybe relative to when you joined, BK. Am I reading a little bit too much into that? And if not, I guess, what has changed?
其次,這封信聽起來你對虛擬商品和貨幣更加樂觀,可能與你加入 BK 時相比。我是不是讀得太多了?如果沒有,我猜,發生了什麼變化?
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Mark, for the questions. Let me take your second question first about virtual goods. So to clarify, I always thought that virtual goods and currencies made sense in the Tinder ecosystem and is a big opportunity. But we want to do this right. And to do this, we have to build the virtual goods and then create the demand. After that, you can create the coin economy to purchase those goods. I asked the teams to rethink that road map and delay the launch into next year. They've been working on it. I'm excited because the Tinder CPO has great experience in building this type of economies. I'm really excited to see this roll out in 2023.
謝謝,馬克,你的問題。我先回答你關於虛擬商品的第二個問題。所以澄清一下,我一直認為虛擬商品和貨幣在 Tinder 生態系統中是有意義的,並且是一個很大的機會。但我們想正確地做到這一點。要做到這一點,我們必須建立虛擬商品,然後創造需求。之後,您可以創建硬幣經濟來購買這些商品。我要求團隊重新考慮該路線圖並將發布推遲到明年。他們一直在努力。我很興奮,因為 Tinder CPO 在建立此類經濟體方面擁有豐富的經驗。我真的很高興看到它在 2023 年推出。
And then to your question about advertising, over the last 5 years, advertising has been a modest focus at Tinder, but the reality is over 85% of our users don't pay us anything. In my previous history, I've seen real success in monetizing users that don't pay. So I've asked the team to embrace advertising monetization culturally. I think there's a real opportunity to implement proven ideas from games that I've utilized in the past, for example, rewarded video. I think over time, I would like to see us get through $100 million in advertising revenue, which is about double the revenue that we have today. Thanks so much for the questions.
然後關於你關於廣告的問題,在過去的 5 年裡,廣告一直是 Tinder 的一個適度關注點,但現實是我們超過 85% 的用戶沒有向我們支付任何費用。在我以前的歷史中,我已經看到了將不付費用戶貨幣化的真正成功。所以我要求團隊在文化上接受廣告貨幣化。我認為有一個真正的機會來實施我過去使用過的遊戲中經過驗證的想法,例如獎勵視頻。我想隨著時間的推移,我希望看到我們獲得 1 億美元的廣告收入,這大約是我們今天收入的兩倍。非常感謝您的提問。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.
我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。
Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst
Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst
I have one on Hinge's premium tier. So could you please talk about the launch? You mentioned Q1 of next year, but is that globally for the entire rollout? And how should we think about your goal for how many payers you may be targeting with that tier?
我有一個在鉸鏈的高級層。那麼你能談談發射嗎?您提到了明年的第一季度,但整個推廣都是全球性的嗎?我們應該如何考慮您可能針對該層級的多少付款人的目標?
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, Shweta, for the great question. We'll start testing Hinge's new subscription later this quarter, and we'll begin rolling it out globally after the new year. We believe that this can drive good conversion and strong RPP. Our outlook for 2023 has assumed a relatively modest take for the new tier. We think it's more comparable to Tinder Platinum than Tinder Gold, but we'll know a lot more after we begin testing later this month. Given the delay of the full rollout of this offering and FX headwinds, especially in the U.K., we do expect Hinge to fall about $15 million short of their revenue goal this year. But we like the subscription monetization opportunities with Hinge -- with the Hinge user base. As with any big changes to tiers, we'll continue to optimize the offering throughout 2023. So really excited about that.
謝謝,Shweta,提出了很好的問題。我們將在本季度晚些時候開始測試 Hinge 的新訂閱,我們將在新年後開始在全球推廣。我們相信這可以推動良好的轉化率和強勁的 RPP。我們對 2023 年的展望假設對新層級的看法相對溫和。我們認為它與 Tinder Platinum 比 Tinder Gold 更具有可比性,但在本月晚些時候開始測試後我們會知道更多。鑑於此產品全面推出的延遲和外匯逆風,尤其是在英國,我們確實預計 Hinge 今年的收入目標將下降約 1500 萬美元。但我們喜歡 Hinge 的訂閱貨幣化機會——Hinge 用戶群。與對等級的任何重大更改一樣,我們將在整個 2023 年繼續優化產品。對此非常興奮。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Cory Carpenter。
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst
Just given a lot of moving parts with Japan and Hyperconnect, hoping you could talk about your expectations and your assumptions for the APAC region next year.
剛剛給出了與日本和 Hyperconnect 相關的許多動態部分,希望您能談談您對明年亞太地區的期望和假設。
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Let me take that, Cory. Thanks for the question. You're right. Our outlook as it relates to APAC businesses next year is a bit challenging just given all the moving parts, as you say. And so in Japan, what we've assumed is really no material change in the trends that we're seeing in the Japanese market next year. I'm hopeful we can do a little bit better than that and start to see some recovery, but we're not really seeing that yet. And so we've assumed that the conditions largely stay the same next year, which basically means we think that our Pairs business can achieve some modest improvement in revenue next year. But probably on a FX -- on a U.S. dollar basis, it's probably going to be down year-over-year. So modestly up in local currency, but down on a dollars basis.
讓我接受,科里。謝謝你的問題。你是對的。正如您所說,考慮到所有活動部分,我們明年與亞太地區業務相關的前景有點挑戰。所以在日本,我們假設明年我們在日本市場看到的趨勢實際上沒有實質性變化。我希望我們能做得比這更好一點,並開始看到一些恢復,但我們還沒有真正看到這一點。因此,我們假設明年的情況基本保持不變,這基本上意味著我們認為我們的 Pairs 業務明年可以在收入方面取得一些適度的改善。但可能以外彙為基礎——以美元為基礎,它可能會同比下降。以當地貨幣計價小幅上漲,但以美元計價下跌。
And I think that business can probably achieve something in the neighborhood of 25% margin. So a reasonably profitable business, but the growth trajectory has really changed. And I'm hopeful that will change for the better, leading into the future.
而且我認為該業務可能會實現 25% 左右的利潤率。因此,這是一項利潤合理的業務,但增長軌跡確實發生了變化。我希望這會變得更好,引領未來。
Hyperconnect has a couple of moving parts as well. The Azar business is very encouraging as we showed in the letter and we've talked about. We feel good about that. And I think we will continue to see some reasonable level of growth from the Azar business.
Hyperconnect 也有幾個活動部件。正如我們在信中所展示的那樣,Azar 的業務非常令人鼓舞,並且我們已經談到了這一點。我們對此感覺良好。而且我認為我們將繼續看到阿扎爾業務的合理增長水平。
Hyperconnect -- sorry, Hakuna at Hyperconnect is more challenged. And we're assuming a little bit of improvement in that business next year compared to this year, but not dramatically so. And so when you put that all together, I think that Hyperconnect overall will show some modest level of revenue growth next year in local currency. But again, when you -- FX affected, I think we will be down on a U.S. dollar basis. So that's what we're planning for. So there are some headwinds from a dollar perspective, both on the Japanese business at Pairs and on the Hyperconnect businesses.
Hyperconnect——抱歉,Hyperconnect 的 Hakuna 面臨更大的挑戰。我們假設與今年相比,明年該業務會有所改善,但不會顯著改善。因此,當您將所有這些放在一起時,我認為 Hyperconnect 總體上將在明年以當地貨幣顯示適度的收入增長。但同樣,當您 - 外匯受到影響時,我認為我們將以美元為基礎下跌。所以這就是我們的計劃。因此,從美元的角度來看,Pairs 的日本業務和 Hyperconnect 業務都存在一些不利因素。
I think Azar and Hakuna together can probably do about a 10% adjusted operating income margin. We're going to be disciplined on marketing spend and headcount there to try to drive improving margins. And we got to keep driving margins up in that business. And that is something that our new team there working with our existing CEO, Sam Ahn, is very focused on.
我認為 Azar 和 Hakuna 一起可能可以實現 10% 的調整後營業利潤率。我們將嚴格控制營銷支出和員工人數,以努力提高利潤率。我們必須繼續提高該業務的利潤率。這是我們新團隊與現有首席執行官 Sam Ahn 合作的重點。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Justin Patterson with KeyBanc.
我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Justin Patterson。
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Justin Tyler Patterson - Director of Internet and Media Equity Research & Lead Senior Analyst
Great. I'll try a multi-partner on Tinder marketing. BK, could you talk about how you see this tighter integration between marketing and product teams influencing the growth of Tinder ahead? It sounds pretty similar to your bold beat strategy over at Zynga.
偉大的。我將在 Tinder 營銷方面嘗試多合作夥伴。 BK,您能否談談您如何看待營銷和產品團隊之間更緊密的整合對 Tinder 未來發展的影響?這聽起來與你在 Zynga 的大膽節拍策略非常相似。
And then for Gary, appreciate the details you gave on Tinder margin still being best-in-class at around 50%. Could you talk a little bit more about just the puts and takes on whether this is kind of a temporary or permanent shift in marketing spend? And what kind of the assumptions are to maintain those best-in-class margins?
然後對於 Gary,感謝您提供的關於 Tinder 利潤率的詳細信息,仍然是同類最佳的,約為 50%。您能否多談談看跌期權和承擔這是否是營銷支出的暫時或永久性轉變?什麼樣的假設才能保持這些一流的利潤率?
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Thank you, Justin. Great question. I'll try to answer this question on my own. We love the questions around marketing. So traditionally, Tinder has not spent much on marketing. They've always spent about less than 10% of revenue, and we don't see that changing. Thankfully, Tinder is not reliant on marketing to grow the business. However, this is a 10-year-old brand. And especially with younger users who are new to the category, we haven't taken the opportunity to establish our narrative. I believe that Tinder, which is a category leader, has been too quiet in the market for too long. In 2023, we're going to increase marketing spend to establish stronger brand narrative. But to answer your question, it's still going to be below 10% of revenue.
謝謝你,賈斯汀。好問題。我會嘗試自己回答這個問題。我們喜歡有關營銷的問題。所以傳統上,Tinder 並沒有在營銷上花費太多。他們總是花費不到 10% 的收入,我們認為這種情況不會改變。值得慶幸的是,Tinder 並不依賴營銷來發展業務。然而,這是一個有 10 年曆史的品牌。尤其是對於剛接觸該類別的年輕用戶,我們沒有藉此機會建立我們的敘述。相信作為品類龍頭的Tinder在市場上沉寂了太久。 2023 年,我們將增加營銷支出以建立更強大的品牌敘事。但要回答你的問題,它仍將低於收入的 10%。
With our new CMO, we see great opportunities to get brand message out there in a creative manner and market some of our newer product features that we have planned for next year. These 2 together should help accelerate user growth at Tinder. And even -- once again, and even with incremental marketing spend, we expect Tinder margin in 2023 to be in the 50% range as they always have been. Thanks for the question.
通過我們的新 CMO,我們看到了以創造性的方式傳達品牌信息並推銷我們計劃在明年推出的一些新產品功能的絕佳機會。這兩者一起應該有助於加速 Tinder 的用戶增長。甚至——再一次,即使營銷支出增加,我們預計 2023 年的 Tinder 利潤率將一如既往地保持在 50% 的範圍內。謝謝你的問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist.
我們的下一個問題來自 Youssef Squali 和 Truist。
Youssef Houssaini Squali - MD & Senior Analyst
Youssef Houssaini Squali - MD & Senior Analyst
Guys, thanks for sharing the initial outlook for 2023. We understand how challenging visibility is at this point, but still appreciate it. So maybe just a follow-up to the last question about marketing since BK, he liked the marketing questions. So if I understand it correctly, and this is a question about 2023, it seems like Tinder, Hinge and Match will see increase in marketing spend while all the other brands would be down. I guess the question is, is this a temporary strategy to weather the macro environment in 2023? Or do you see this more as a permanent pivot, permanent shift in your strategy going forward?
伙計們,感謝您分享 2023 年的初步展望。我們了解在這一點上能見度是多麼具有挑戰性,但仍然很感激。所以也許只是自 BK 以來關於營銷的最後一個問題的後續,他喜歡營銷問題。因此,如果我理解正確,這是一個關於 2023 年的問題,似乎 Tinder、Hinge 和 Match 的營銷支出將會增加,而所有其他品牌都會下降。我想問題是,這是應對 2023 年宏觀環境的臨時策略嗎?還是您認為這更像是您未來戰略的永久支點和永久轉變?
And maybe just a quick one. You guys talked about how Hinge should contribute at least an additional $100 million in 2023. What do you expect that business to contribute in 2022 just to have a base off to work off of?
也許只是一個快速的。你們談到了鉸鏈應該如何在 2023 年至少額外貢獻 1 億美元。您希望該企業在 2022 年貢獻什麼,只是為了有一個可以工作的基礎?
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
So let me take the Hinge question first. I think BK mentioned that Hinge is probably about $15 million behind the goal for the year, mostly because of FX. It's got a big U.K. business in particular, and it's feeling the impact of FX, especially in -- on the pound.
所以讓我先回答鉸鏈問題。我認為 BK 提到鉸鏈可能比今年的目標落後約 1500 萬美元,主要是因為外匯。它在英國有很大的業務,它感受到了外彙的影響,尤其是對英鎊的影響。
And so we had targeted $300 million. I think we'll probably fall about $15 million short of that. So let's call it, $285 million or so for the year. And then we said we think we can deliver at least $100 million of incremental revenue next year, so that you can add that together.
所以我們的目標是 3 億美元。我認為我們可能會少約 1500 萬美元。所以讓我們稱之為,今年2.85億美元左右。然後我們說我們認為明年我們可以提供至少 1 億美元的增量收入,這樣你就可以把它加在一起。
Obviously, the $100 million depends really on the success of the international expansion, but more importantly, on the success and take rate around the new pricing tier, the new premium tier. And so that's really the thing that we don't know. We've made some reasonable estimates on what we think is going to happen with that tier. But we'll know a lot more in a few weeks or certainly by the end of the year as we're planning to start testing the middle of this month. And so by the end of this year, we'll have a much better sense. And so when we get back together again in February, we'll be able to give you some updates on that tier as well as on the overall outlook for Hinge revenue growth next year. So that was one piece of your question.
顯然,這 1 億美元實際上取決於國際擴張的成功,但更重要的是,取決於新定價層、新溢價層的成功和採納率。所以這真的是我們不知道的事情。我們已經對我們認為該層會發生的事情做出了一些合理的估計。但我們會在幾週內或肯定在今年年底知道更多,因為我們計劃在本月中旬開始測試。所以到今年年底,我們會有更好的感覺。因此,當我們在 2 月再次聚首時,我們將能夠為您提供有關該層級的一些更新以及明年鉸鏈收入增長的總體前景。所以這是你的問題之一。
I did also just want to comment on the 2023 outlook just since you raised it, which is, by necessity, we wanted to provide an outlook for next year as we often do on this call. But this year, that is particularly challenging because there are so many moving pieces, both in our business and from a macro perspective. And so we don't really know what the macro environment is going to be through next year, what's going to happen from rates and recession and all the things that you know well. So we've tried to make our best guess at that.
自從你提出 2023 年展望後,我也確實想對它發表評論,也就是說,我們有必要提供明年的展望,就像我們在這次電話會議上經常做的那樣。但今年,這尤其具有挑戰性,因為無論是在我們的業務中還是從宏觀角度來看,都有太多動人的因素。所以我們真的不知道明年宏觀環境會如何,利率和衰退會發生什麼,以及所有你知道的事情。所以我們試圖對此做出最好的猜測。
But clearly, we'll have to see how things play out in the coming months to get a better sense of what 2023 looks like. But sitting here today, making our best guess on what economic conditions are going to be for next year, we're confident in that 5% to 10% growth for the overall company as well as at Tinder on the revenue side. So I just wanted to kind of mention some of that, so everyone understands how we've approached providing an outlook for next year at this point, given all the various crosswinds.
但顯然,我們必須看看未來幾個月的情況如何,才能更好地了解 2023 年的情況。但是今天坐在這裡,對明年的經濟狀況做出最好的猜測,我們對整個公司以及 Tinder 在收入方面的 5% 到 10% 的增長充滿信心。所以我只是想提一下其中的一些,所以每個人都明白我們是如何在這一點上為明年提供展望的,考慮到各種不同的側風。
And then on the last question about the marketing spend. You are right to assume that we're going to see marketing spend increases next year at Tinder for the reasons that BK explained about wanting to make sure we establish the brand narrative better than we have in the past as well as at Hinge, which we've talked about extensively. And that's really 2 things. One, to keep supporting its really strong and impressive user growth in the English-speaking markets, U.S., U.K. in particular, as well as continue to build around the world where there's a lot of momentum. Things are going well more than according to plan, and we feel great about our international expansion opportunity at Hinge. We want to keep investing in that. So those are the places where we are clearly investing meaningful dollars on the marketing side.
然後是關於營銷支出的最後一個問題。您認為我們明年將在 Tinder 看到營銷支出增加是正確的,原因是 BK 解釋說希望確保我們建立比過去更好的品牌敘事以及在 Hinge,我們'已經廣泛談論。這真的是兩件事。第一,繼續支持其在英語市場,尤其是美國、英國的真正強勁和令人印象深刻的用戶增長,並繼續在世界各地發展勢頭強勁。事情進展順利,超出了計劃,我們對 Hinge 的國際擴張機會感到非常高興。我們想繼續投資。因此,這些地方顯然是我們在營銷方面投入大量資金的地方。
I did want to correct, you said you thought there would be an increase in marketing spend at our Match brand next year. I don't think that's going to be the case. There is going to be an increase in our marketing spend at the Match brand in Q4 of this year, but that's because we have a discrete new brand campaign that we're launching. So there will be a year-over-year increase in Q4 of this year at Match, but we're not planning for that next year. In fact, we expect marketing spend at all of the Established Brands, including Match, to be down in 2023 over 2022. And we're using that to offset the investments we're making at the Hinge brand and at the Tinder brand.
我確實想更正一下,您說您認為明年我們的 Match 品牌的營銷支出會增加。我不認為會是這樣。今年第四季度我們在 Match 品牌上的營銷支出將會增加,但那是因為我們正在推出一個獨立的新品牌活動。因此,今年第四季度的 Match 會出現同比增長,但我們不打算在明年這樣做。事實上,我們預計包括 Match 在內的所有知名品牌的營銷支出將在 2023 年比 2022 年下降。我們正在用它來抵消我們對 Hinge 品牌和 Tinder 品牌的投資。
I would also say that our approach to marketing spend and how we're thinking about our strategy around that is not about weathering the current macroeconomic environment, and it's also not a permanent strategy. It's really a plan for targeted spend increases to achieve our strategic goals. So our strategic goals are at Hinge to grow the business internationally, and that's why we're investing. Our strategic goals at Tinder is to establish the brand narrative and take back some of the brand narrative and make some more noise in the market, and we're planning to do that with increased marketing spend next year. And then we'll sort of go from there. We're nimble in marketing spend, and we will continue to spend where we think it makes sense and pull back where we think it doesn't make sense.
我還要說,我們的營銷支出方法以及我們如何思考我們的戰略並不是要經受當前的宏觀經濟環境,它也不是一個永久的戰略。這確實是一個有針對性的支出增加計劃,以實現我們的戰略目標。因此,我們在 Hinge 的戰略目標是在國際上發展業務,這就是我們投資的原因。我們在 Tinder 的戰略目標是建立品牌敘事並收回一些品牌敘事並在市場上製造更多噪音,我們計劃明年通過增加營銷支出來做到這一點。然後我們會從那裡開始。我們在營銷支出方面很靈活,我們將繼續在我們認為有意義的地方進行支出,並在我們認為沒有意義的地方撤回。
A couple of other areas I would point to, where we think we will spend up next year. One would be The League, which we recently acquired. And we think there's significant opportunity for growth of The League, and we plan to invest into that business on the marketing side. We're excited about the opportunities there.
我會指出其他幾個領域,我們認為明年我們將在這些領域花費。一個是我們最近收購的聯盟。我們認為聯盟有很大的發展機會,我們計劃在營銷方面投資該業務。我們對那裡的機會感到興奮。
And then second is some new apps that we're thinking about incubating. We think there are some markets where the demographics are underserved. And we can build some apps that really satisfy those demographics better than the current offerings. To the extent we do that, user growth will be a priority, driving user growth, and marketing will be a component of that strategy in 2023 once we incubate the new app. So we expect to spend up to the extent we incubate some new apps, which is in our plan for 2023.
其次是我們正在考慮孵化的一些新應用程序。我們認為有些市場的人口統計數據服務不足。我們可以構建一些比當前產品更能真正滿足這些人口統計數據的應用程序。在我們這樣做的範圍內,用戶增長將是一個優先事項,推動用戶增長,一旦我們孵化新應用程序,營銷將成為 2023 年該戰略的一個組成部分。因此,我們希望在孵化一些新應用程序的情況下花費最多,這在我們 2023 年的計劃中。
And then I would just add that, philosophically, we're maintaining strict ROI discipline on our marketing spend as we always do, but especially in a tougher environment. And we believe that all of our brands, our marketing spend is meeting or exceeding our ROI threshold. So that is a lens we're going to continue to apply very, very carefully, especially in a challenging environment. We're hopeful that if the economy does soften, we will see some relief in terms of what has been an expensive and competitive marketing environment, but we have not seen that yet.
然後我想補充一點,從哲學上講,我們一如既往地在營銷支出上保持嚴格的投資回報率紀律,尤其是在更艱難的環境中。我們相信我們所有的品牌,我們的營銷支出都達到或超過了我們的投資回報率門檻。所以這是我們將繼續非常非常謹慎地應用的鏡頭,尤其是在充滿挑戰的環境中。我們希望,如果經濟確實走軟,我們會在昂貴且競爭激烈的營銷環境中看到一些緩解,但我們還沒有看到。
I think it's logical to think it's coming, given all the headwinds in the economy. But if we do see that, we would look to capitalize on that as well. So hopefully, that answers the different parts of your questions, and I thank you for your questions.
鑑於經濟中的所有不利因素,我認為認為它即將到來是合乎邏輯的。但是,如果我們確實看到了這一點,我們也會尋求利用這一點。所以希望這能回答你問題的不同部分,我感謝你的問題。
Youssef Houssaini Squali - MD & Senior Analyst
Youssef Houssaini Squali - MD & Senior Analyst
Yes, excellent. Very thorough.
是的,很棒。非常徹底。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from John Blackledge with Cowen.
我們的下一個問題來自 John Blackledge 和 Cowen。
John Ryan Blackledge - MD & Senior Research Analyst
John Ryan Blackledge - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Could you provide some more color on Hinge's international expansion efforts kind of what you're seeing? And then can you talk about kind of upcoming market launches in the fourth quarter and in 2023?
您能否就您所看到的鉸鏈的國際擴張努力提供更多色彩?然後你能談談即將在第四季度和 2023 年推出的市場嗎?
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, John, for the great question. We have a lot of exciting things that are happening at Hinge right now. We've confirmed 2 things. The product has appealed beyond English-speaking markets, and our marketing and localization tactics are working well.
謝謝,約翰,提出了一個很好的問題。 Hinge 現在有很多令人興奮的事情正在發生。我們已經確認了兩件事。該產品已經超越了英語市場,我們的營銷和本地化策略運作良好。
Hinge has found a great fit for singles that are in English markets and now -- in English-speaking markets, and now it's clear that the product resonates in other international markets also. The team is really innovative and laser-focused on getting people on great dates. So it shouldn't be a huge surprise that it's growing so well.
Hinge 非常適合在英語市場和現在在英語市場上的單身人士,現在很明顯,該產品在其他國際市場也引起了共鳴。該團隊非常具有創新性,並且專注於讓人們度過美好的約會。因此,它的增長如此之好應該不足為奇。
The launch in Germany and Sweden has been really great to watch, and we're rolling out localized versions in France, Italy and Spain in this quarter as well. We'll start marketing in those countries in 2023, and we expect Hinge to keep growing across Europe next year. We still have a lot more countries to go, and we'll continue to roll out new markets and should drive growth for Hinge over the next few years.
在德國和瑞典的發布非常值得一看,本季度我們還將在法國、意大利和西班牙推出本地化版本。我們將於 2023 年開始在這些國家/地區進行營銷,我們預計鉸鏈明年將在歐洲繼續增長。我們還有更多的國家要去,我們將繼續推出新市場,並在未來幾年推動鉸鏈的增長。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Lauren Schenk。
Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst
Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst
Great. BK, you mentioned in the letter you're seeing some promise from early Tinder results. Just hoping you could maybe elaborate and share a few examples there. And then is there a timeline that we should be thinking about in terms of announcing the new Tinder CEO?
偉大的。 BK,您在信中提到您從早期的 Tinder 結果中看到了一些希望。只是希望您可以在那裡詳細說明並分享一些示例。那麼在宣布新的 Tinder 首席執行官方面,我們應該考慮一個時間表嗎?
And then, Gary, I just had one quick follow-up, if I can. On your comments about seeing some deterioration over the last few weeks. Does that fourth quarter guide assume that, that level of softness continues for the rest of the quarter? And is that softness broad-based and just on à la carte spending and payers.
然後,加里,如果可以的話,我只是進行了一次快速跟進。關於您在過去幾週看到一些惡化的評論。該第四季度指南是否假設該季度剩餘時間繼續保持這種疲軟水平?並且這種柔軟度是廣泛的,只是基於點菜的支出和付款人。
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
So thanks for the questions. I'll handle the first part and, Gary, you can jump in on the back end on the second question. So the team is working really well together, and we're shipping products out faster. We gave them a goal to launch weekly subscriptions, boost optimization and relationship intent in Q3, and they accomplished all of that. Now we're in the process of crystallizing our product plans for 2023. I'm happy with how that's going, and we'll have more specifics to share in our next earnings call.
所以謝謝你的問題。我將處理第一部分,加里,你可以在第二個問題的後端跳進去。所以團隊合作得非常好,而且我們的產品發貨速度更快。我們給了他們一個目標,即在第三季度推出每週訂閱、促進優化和關係意圖,他們完成了所有這些。現在我們正在製定 2023 年的產品計劃。我對進展感到滿意,我們將在下一次財報電話會議上分享更多細節。
But I do expect to name a CEO at Tinder. We have a really strong leadership team in place, and I want to make sure that the new CEO is going to work really well with each of them. We're looking for someone with deep consumer product expertise, who can hit the ground running and further galvanize the team around a long-term vision. It's important for us to find someone that will be at Tinder for a long time. So we want to spend the right amount of time doing the diligence and finding the right leader. In the meantime, I'm happy to stay as interim CEO. Gary, do you want to handle the second part?
但我確實希望在 Tinder 任命一位首席執行官。我們有一個非常強大的領導團隊,我想確保新任 CEO 能夠與他們中的每個人都很好地合作。我們正在尋找具有深厚消費產品專業知識的人,他可以迅速開展工作並進一步激發團隊的長期願景。對我們來說,找到能在 Tinder 工作很長時間的人很重要。因此,我們希望花費適當的時間進行盡職調查並找到合適的領導者。與此同時,我很高興繼續擔任臨時 CEO。加里,你想處理第二部分嗎?
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Yes. Obviously, we're part way through the quarter in Q4. And so visibility into Q4 is a lot easier than visibility into 2023. And we have seen deterioration in the last few weeks. It's not broad-based, it's primarily on à la carte at Tinder. There is -- it is existing in some other pockets like our Plenty of Fish business as well. And look, it's hard to tell exactly how much macro weakness we're seeing across the portfolio. But the thing that we're particularly focused on is the weakness on the ALC side at Tinder.
是的。顯然,我們已經完成了第四季度的一部分。因此,對第四季度的可見性比對 2023 年的可見性要容易得多。而且我們在過去幾週看到了惡化。它的基礎並不廣泛,主要是在 Tinder 上點菜。有 - 它也存在於我們的大量魚類業務等其他一些領域。看,很難準確地說出我們在整個投資組合中看到了多少宏觀疲軟。但我們特別關注的是 Tinder ALC 方面的弱點。
I think we've made some reasonable assumptions based on what we're seeing for Q4 that give me confidence in our range that we provided for Q4. Obviously, I don't know how much things are going to deteriorate or not in 2023, and so that's what makes guiding for 2023 more challenging. But right now, the trends that we see do indicate some consumer weakness, and we have factored that in at least into our Q4 outlook. And we've tried to make some best guesses around it for 2023 as a whole as well.
我認為我們已經根據我們在第四季度看到的情況做出了一些合理的假設,這讓我對我們為第四季度提供的範圍充滿信心。顯然,我不知道 2023 年情況會惡化到什麼程度,這就是 2023 年指導更具挑戰性的原因。但現在,我們看到的趨勢確實表明消費者存在一些疲軟,我們至少在第四季度的展望中已經考慮到了這一點。我們也試圖圍繞 2023 年整體做出一些最佳猜測。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alexandra Steiger。
Alexandra Christine Kasper Steiger - Research Analyst
Alexandra Christine Kasper Steiger - Research Analyst
I wanted to follow up on Q4 and '23 margins. So given the guidance for slower top line growth at Tinder and your comments around increased marketing investments versus some targeted cost reduction efforts, how should we think about the cadence of adjusted operating income margins from here and over the next few quarters, given the timing of these initiatives?
我想跟進 Q4 和 '23 的利潤率。因此,鑑於 Tinder 收入增長放緩的指導以及您對增加營銷投資與一些有針對性的成本削減工作的評論,鑑於時間安排,我們應該如何考慮從現在和未來幾個季度調整後的營業利潤率這些舉措?
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Thanks, Alexandra. So you're right, and I said it before, we're investing marketing dollars in the business where we see growth opportunities, Tinder, Hinge, The League, et cetera. And we're offsetting those with reductions in the more Established Brands.
謝謝,亞歷山德拉。所以你是對的,我之前說過,我們正在將營銷資金投入到我們看到增長機會的業務中,Tinder、Hinge、The League 等等。我們正在通過減少更成熟的品牌來抵消這些影響。
The net result of that is that we expect marketing spend next year to be roughly consistent as a percentage of revenue with what we've seen in 2022. And so overall, our goal for next year is to have flat margins for the year, hopefully, do better than that, but that's our target. But you may see small fluctuations quarter-to-quarter, depending on the cadence of marketing spend. If we spend on a bigger campaign in Q1, that might have some effect on margins versus if we don't have that in Q2. So you might see margins be plus or minus a little bit year-over-year in each quarter, depending on the marketing spend cadence and what's going on from a campaign perspective.
這樣做的最終結果是,我們預計明年的營銷支出佔收入的百分比將與我們在 2022 年看到的大致一致。因此,總體而言,我們明年的目標是今年的利潤率持平,希望如此,做得比那更好,但這是我們的目標。但您可能會看到季度間的小幅波動,具體取決於營銷支出的節奏。如果我們在第一季度投入更大的活動,這可能會對利潤率產生一些影響,而如果我們在第二季度沒有這樣做的話。因此,您可能會看到每個季度的利潤率與去年同期相比略有增加或減少,具體取決於營銷支出節奏以及從活動角度來看正在發生的事情。
Outside of marketing spend, we're going to offset any incremental margin headwinds that exist with improvements elsewhere to hit that goal of at least flat margins.
除了營銷支出之外,我們將通過其他方面的改進來抵消存在的任何增量利潤逆風,以實現至少持平利潤率的目標。
And then you're right, Tinder is a very high-margin asset for us, and we talked about that already. And so improvement in margins and ultimately hitting our long-term margin goal really is dependent on or at least it's the factor that Tinder really accelerate its growth and really contribute meaningful growth to us. So that is the #1 job for the company is to really accelerate Tinder growth and get it back to where it's been historically or at least closer to that, which will help us get closer to our overall long-term margin target.
然後你是對的,Tinder 對我們來說是一項非常高利潤的資產,我們已經討論過這一點。因此,利潤率的提高並最終實現我們的長期利潤率目標實際上取決於或至少是 Tinder 真正加速增長並真正為我們做出有意義的增長的因素。因此,公司的第一要務是真正加速 Tinder 的增長,並使其回到歷史上或至少更接近歷史水平,這將幫助我們更接近我們的整體長期利潤率目標。
The only other thing I'd point out around margins, and we mentioned this in the letter, is that our outlook for margins doesn't assume any relief from the app stores at all, which we think is the prudent thing to assume at the moment. That being said, the Digital Markets Act went into effect yesterday in the U.K., and we are expecting changes to app store policies as a result of that. And there's actions in other jurisdiction as well, markets like India, for example. And so we believe that it's likely that we're going to see relief from app stores in 2023, if not in 2024 at the latest. And so I do think there is upside to our margins as that plays through. But right now, our outlook doesn't contemplate any of that.
關於利潤率,我唯一要指出的另一件事是,我們在信中提到這一點,是我們對利潤率的展望根本沒有假設應用商店有任何緩解,我們認為這是謹慎的假設片刻。話雖如此,《數字市場法案》昨天在英國生效,我們預計應用商店政策會因此而發生變化。其他司法管轄區也有行動,例如印度等市場。所以我們相信,如果最遲在 2024 年,我們很可能會在 2023 年看到應用商店的緩解。所以我確實認為我們的利潤有上升空間。但現在,我們的前景並沒有考慮到任何這些。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.
我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Benjamin Black。
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst
Great. Just a follow-up on expenses. So I think in the letter, you spoke about accelerating sort of broader cost controls next year. When should we expect to see those sort of initiatives impact the P&L? And could you sort of unpack exactly what those cost controls should look like?
偉大的。只是對費用的跟進。所以我認為在信中,你談到了明年加速更廣泛的成本控制。我們應該在什麼時候看到這些舉措影響損益表?您能否準確地解開這些成本控制應該是什麼樣子的?
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Gary Swidler - COO & CFO
Sure. Let me take that one as well. When you look at our P&L, a lot of our costs come out of IFPs, which obviously we're nowhere near in control over as well as things like web hosting, AWS, things like that, which are difficult for us to affect. So when you look at what we can control, and we do want to control what we can control in the current environment, marketing and headcount as well as some other operating expense items are things that we really can control and can control costs on those fronts.
當然。讓我也拿那個。當您查看我們的損益表時,我們的很多成本都來自 IFP,顯然我們無法控制,還有像網絡託管、AWS 之類的東西,我們很難影響。因此,當您查看我們可以控制的內容時,並且我們確實希望在當前環境中控制我們可以控制的內容,營銷和員工人數以及其他一些運營費用項目是我們真正可以控制的並且可以控制這些方面的成本.
I just talked, in response to Alexandra's question, about the marketing spend where we're increasing it in certain of our businesses. And we're offsetting that with reductions elsewhere to be neutral from a margin perspective. So that's one piece of it.
在回答亞歷山德拉的問題時,我剛剛談到了我們在某些業務中增加的營銷支出。我們正在通過其他地方的削減來抵消這一點,從利潤率的角度來看是中性的。所以這是其中的一部分。
In terms of the headcount, we've actually dramatically slowed our hiring since the middle of this year, and we expect very few, if any, additional hires in 2022. Really, only critical hires in growth businesses are the only additional headcount that we would add in 2022.
就員工人數而言,自今年年中以來,我們實際上已經大幅放緩了招聘速度,我們預計 2022 年將很少(如果有的話)額外招聘。確實,只有成長型企業中的關鍵員工才是我們唯一增加的員工人數將在 2022 年增加。
And I think in 2023, the same philosophy will apply, meaning that for growing businesses and really critical hires, we'll make them. But other than that, we're going to be really judicious. So specifically, I'm expecting hiring in Hinge, which is a bright spot for us, a fast-growing business. But I'm not expecting meaningful headcount increases elsewhere across the company.
而且我認為在 2023 年,同樣的理念將適用,這意味著對於成長中的企業和真正關鍵的員工,我們會做。但除此之外,我們將非常明智。所以具體來說,我期待在 Hinge 招聘,這對我們來說是一個亮點,這是一個快速發展的業務。但我預計公司其他地方的員工人數不會大幅增加。
And to the extent that headcount does lead to incremental margin impact on the negative side, we would need to offset that with reductions in other parts of the business. And so when you think about where those could be, one is just general corporate overhead, things that are nice to have that we can do without or costs that have crept into the business over the last few years that we think we can reduce and pare back on without impacting the performance of the business. And there are some of those. And we've identified those, and we're imminently taking action on some of those. So you'll see the impact of that flow through the P&L, if not in the fourth quarter, then certainly as we make the turn into 2023.
在某種程度上,員工人數確實會導致負面的利潤率影響增加,我們需要通過減少業務的其他部分來抵消這一影響。因此,當您考慮這些可能在哪裡時,其中一個只是一般的公司開銷,我們可以不用的很高興擁有的東西,或者在過去幾年中潛入業務的成本,我們認為我們可以減少和削減在不影響業務績效的情況下重新啟動。其中有一些。我們已經確定了這些,我們即將對其中一些採取行動。所以你會看到這種流動對損益表的影響,如果不是在第四季度,那麼肯定會在我們進入 2023 年時看到。
Also, in our real estate portfolio, obviously, post-COVID, things are not the same from a real estate perspective as they were pre-COVID. And to the extent it makes sense to adjust our real estate footprint, we're looking at doing so. So corporate overhead, corporate costs generally as well as real estate are places that we're targeting for reductions. And we can hopefully use some of that to reinvest in the businesses, in new growth initiatives, in marketing at Tinder and Hinge and so forth. And so that's part of our plan.
此外,在我們的房地產投資組合中,顯然,在 COVID 之後,從房地產的角度來看,事情與 COVID 之前的情況不同。在某種程度上調整我們的房地產足跡是有意義的,我們正在考慮這樣做。因此,企業管理費用、企業成本以及房地產是我們要削減的目標。我們希望可以利用其中的一部分對業務、新的增長計劃、Tinder 和 Hinge 的營銷等進行再投資。這是我們計劃的一部分。
And look, I would just say, we think these are the responsible things to do. There's a lot of macro headwinds out there that are very difficult to predict, and so we would rather be proactive on this front. And if the environment next year is not as bad as we are anticipating, then the business will improve from a profitability standpoint. So that's the approach that we're taking. And we're also mindful that the trajectory of certain of our businesses is growth challenged, and we also have to factor in that we need to be more disciplined on costs as a result of the growth challenges in some of our businesses.
看,我只想說,我們認為這些是負責任的事情。那裡有很多難以預測的宏觀逆風,因此我們寧願在這方面積極主動。如果明年的環境沒有我們預期的那麼糟糕,那麼從盈利的角度來看,業務將會有所改善。這就是我們正在採取的方法。我們還注意到,我們某些業務的發展軌跡面臨增長挑戰,而且我們還必須考慮到,由於我們的一些業務面臨增長挑戰,我們需要在成本方面更加自律。
So I just want to kind of conclude by saying we have guiding principles around this. We're making targeted investments in businesses that we think can grow: Tinder, Hinge, The League, Chispa, BLK, some of these new apps that we might incubate. That is philosophically what we're trying to do, and we're making expense reductions in businesses where we have less confidence in the growth, primarily the Established Brands. So it's not a one-size-fits-all approach. It's not a complete broad-based approach. It is targeted investment in some parts of the businesses and reducing costs in corporate and other brands that aren't growing on the flip side. And that's how we're approaching the cost reductions that we're thinking about.
最後,我只想說我們有這方面的指導原則。我們正在對我們認為可以發展的業務進行有針對性的投資:Tinder、Hinge、The League、Chispa、BLK,其中一些我們可能會孵化的新應用程序。從哲學上講,這就是我們正在嘗試做的事情,我們正在減少對增長缺乏信心的業務,主要是老牌品牌。因此,這不是一種萬能的方法。這不是一個完整的基礎廣泛的方法。這是對部分業務的有針對性的投資,並降低企業和其他沒有增長的品牌的成本。這就是我們正在考慮的降低成本的方式。
And then the last thing I wanted to add before we just wrap the call up is that any investments we're going to make in new businesses next year or going forward are going to face a very high bar. Especially given the environment we're in, we need to apply a very disciplined lens to making any investments. And so we're reviewing everything very carefully, and we're going through our process now to do all of that. And so we'll have a lot more to communicate both on the cost and margin side, on the investment side as well as what we see as the environment from a macro perspective and revenue growth when we get together again in February on our next call. And I look forward to seeing you all then. BK, any last comments from you?
然後在我們結束電話會議之前我想補充的最後一件事是,我們將在明年或未來對新業務進行的任何投資都將面臨非常高的標準。尤其是考慮到我們所處的環境,我們需要以非常嚴謹的眼光來進行任何投資。因此,我們正在非常仔細地審查所有內容,我們現在正在通過我們的流程來完成所有這些工作。因此,當我們在 2 月份的下一次電話會議上再次聚首時,我們將在成本和利潤方面、投資方面以及我們從宏觀角度看待環境和收入增長方面進行更多溝通.我期待著與大家見面。 BK,你有什麼最後的評論嗎?
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Bernard Kim - CEO & Director
Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. We feel like we've made a lot of great progress in a short amount of time. We look forward to sharing more with you during our next earnings call. Thanks so much.
謝謝大家,今天加入電話會議。我們覺得我們在很短的時間內取得了很大的進步。我們期待在下一次財報電話會議上與您分享更多信息。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。