MP Materials Corp (MP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. Thank you for attending today's MP Materials Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Sierra, and I'll be your moderator today. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Martin Sheehan.

大家好。感謝您參加今天的 MP Materials 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫 Sierra，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。 （操作員說明）。現在我想將會議交給我們的東道主馬丁希恩 (Martin Sheehan)。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the MP Materials Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. With me today from MP Materials are Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer; and Ryan Corbett, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。歡迎參加 MP Materials 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是 MP Materials 的創辦人、董事長兼執行長 Jim Litinsky；麥可‧羅森塔爾，創辦人兼營運長；瑞安‧科貝特 (Ryan Corbett)，財務長。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation, earnings release and in our SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種假設和警告的影響。可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素包含在今天的簡報、收益發布和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's earnings release and the appendix to today's slide presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. Finally, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim. Jim?

此外，我們也在本簡報中納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標的調節可以在今天的收益發布和今天幻燈片演示的附錄中找到。我們今天討論中提及的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA。最後，我們的網站上提供了收益發布和幻燈片演示。這樣，我就把電話轉給吉姆。吉姆？

Thanks, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone. Let me begin with a brief overview of today's call. First, I will discuss the highlights from the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023, while adding some important context from the first 2 months of 2024. Ryan will then run through our financials and KPIs, followed by Michael who will review our operational progress. I will then close with my macro commentary before turning the call over to Q&A.

謝謝，馬丁。大家下午好。讓我先簡要概述今天的電話會議。首先，我將討論 2023 年第四季和全年的亮點，同時加入 2024 年前 2 個月的一些重要背景。然後 Ryan 將介紹我們的財務和關鍵績效指標，然後由 Michael 審查我們的營運進度。然後，我將在將電話轉入問答環節之前以我的宏觀評論作為結束語。

Moving on to Slide 4. Despite facing formidable market headwinds, MP executed diligently throughout 2023 across all 3 stages of our business. In our Upstream concentrate business we exceeded 40,000 metric tons of REO production for the third consecutive year. The MP team now has over 6 full years of production under our belt. We continue to learn, increase productivity and identify new opportunities for value creation.

轉到投影片 4。儘管面臨巨大的市場阻力，MP 在 2023 年全年在我們業務的所有 3 個階段都努力執行。在我們的上游精礦業務中，我們的 REO 產量連續第三年超過 40,000 噸。 MP 團隊現已擁有超過 6 年的製作經驗。我們不斷學習、提高生產力並尋找創造價值的新機會。

To that end, in November, we announced Upstream 60K, our plan to increase REO production approximately 50% over the next 4 years with modest incremental spend. This announcement was the culmination of extensive research, development and piloting activity focused on sustainably unlocking even more value from the Mountain Pass resource. We have already begun some of the physical aspects of this expansion.

為此，我們在 11 月宣布了 Upstream 60K，計劃在未來 4 年內以適度增量支出將 REO 產量增加約 50%。這項公告是廣泛研究、開發和試點活動的頂峰，其重點是可持續地從帕斯山資源中釋放更多價值。我們已經開始了這次擴張的一些物理方面的工作。

As many of you have heard me say repeatedly, we believe expansion at Mountain Pass is the quickest, lowest risk and highest return on capital source of rare earth growth in the Western world. Assuming we can achieve our goals, it means that we can generate multiples on our invested capital with this expansion. That is remarkable, especially in this pricing environment.

正如你們許多人多次聽到我說過的那樣，我們相信帕斯山的擴張是西方世界稀土增長速度最快、風險最低、資本回報率最高的。假設我們能夠實現我們的目標，這意味著我們可以透過這次擴張使我們的投資資本產生數倍的成長。這是非常了不起的，尤其是在當前的定價環境下。

So for example, where you may see new stories of large rare earth deposits, those are often uneconomic at almost any price. New projects underway now and/or those that are seeking funding will likely end up destroying capital at these or even materially higher prices. And it's hard to imagine any greenfield project right now even in China can generate a positive return at today's prices.

例如，您可能會看到大型稀土礦床的新故事，但幾乎任何價格都是不經濟的。目前正在進行的新項目和/或正在尋求資金的項目可能最終會以這些甚至更高的價格摧毀資本。即使在中國，目前也很難想像任何綠地計畫能夠以今天的價格產生正回報。

At MP though, we are in a unique position as a low-cost producer with a world-class resource and significant assets already in place to economically grow our upstream substantially through the down cycle.

不過，在 MP，我們作為低成本生產商處於獨特的地位，擁有世界一流的資源和重要資產，可以在經濟下行週期中大幅成長我們的上游業務。

Moving on to our Midstream business. In 2023, we established and ramped production of separated rare earth products, including NdPr oxide. This represents a huge milestone for MP and our mission. Ryan and Michael will walk you through how we are tactically approaching the coming months financially and operationally in a moment.

繼續我們的中游業務。 2023 年，我們建立並擴大了分離稀土產品（包括氧化镨镨）的生產。這對 MP 和我們的使命來說是一個巨大的里程碑。瑞安和邁克爾將向您介紹我們如何在財務和營運方面從戰術上應對未來幾個月的情況。

To expand our customer opportunity set for separated products, we recently began producing NdPr metal in Vietnam. We have also begun trial production of NdPr metal in a North American pilot facility, and we look forward to making Metal on Fort Worth this year.

為了擴大分離產品的客戶機會，我們最近開始在越南生產镨金屬。我們也開始在北美試點工廠試生產镨金屬，我們期待今年在沃斯堡生產金屬。

During the fourth quarter, we delivered our first batch of NdPr oxide to a customer in South Korea, and we expect more sales across Southeast Asia. Importantly, we now have firm commitments for a significant portion of our NdPr from Japanese customers via our Sumitomo distribution relationship. So look for those sales to be material this year and even higher next year.

第四季度，我們向韓國客戶交付了第一批 NdPr 氧化物，我們預計整個東南亞的銷售量將會增加。重要的是，我們現在堅定地承諾透過我們的住友分銷關係從日本客戶那裡購買很大一部分镨镨。因此，預計今年的銷售額將會很可觀，明年甚至會更高。

Lastly, in our Downstream magnetics business, we continue to add substantial depth to our team and capability set. Engineering and operations are now situated under one roof in our magnetics headquarters in Fort Worth. And as I said a moment ago, are working diligently towards start of commercial metal production on site. This means we expect Stage 3 to start producing revenue and modest positive EBITDA later this year, which is very exciting. Ryan will cover more on this later.

最後，在我們的下游磁性業務中，我們繼續增強我們的團隊和能力集的深度。工程和營運現在位於沃思堡的磁性總部同一個屋簷下。正如我剛才所說，我們正在努力啟動現場商業金屬生產。這意味著我們預計第三階段將在今年稍後開始產生收入和適度的正 EBITDA，這是非常令人興奮的。 Ryan 稍後將對此進行更多介紹。

In summary, while the pricing environment has been very frustrating, our team has executed extraordinarily well. We've made a lot of progress on all fronts. I will have more to say on the macro environment and MP in my closing remarks. But for now, let me turn the call over to Ryan to discuss our KPIs and financial results. Ryan?

總而言之，雖然定價環境非常令人沮喪，但我們的團隊執行得非常好。我們在各方面都取得了很大進展。我將在閉幕詞中更多地談論宏觀環境和國會議員。但現在，讓我將電話轉給 Ryan，討論我們的 KPI 和財務表現。瑞安？

Thanks, Jim. Let's turn to Slide 6 and review our full year operational KPIs. Starting on the far left, we produced more than 41,500 tons of REO in concentrate in 2023, exceeding 40,000 tons for the third consecutive year despite a significant focus on stage II commissioning and ramp throughout the year.

謝謝，吉姆。讓我們轉向幻燈片 6 並回顧我們全年的營運 KPI。從最左邊開始，我們在 2023 年生產了超過 41,500 噸 REO 精礦，儘管全年重點關注第二階段調試和爬坡，但連續第三年產量超過 40,000 噸。

Sales volumes were down around 6,000 tons year-over-year primarily due to the initial charging of our Stage II circuits with REO as well as the consumption of REO in concentrate in the downstream circuits to produce NdPr and other separated products in the third and fourth quarters. Lower production volumes in Q4 as well as the timing of sales in 2022 also modestly impacted the comparison.

銷量年減約 6,000 噸，主要是由於我們的第二階段迴路初始加入 REO，以及下游迴路中用於生產镨镨和其他分離產品的第三和第四階段精礦消耗 REO宿舍。第四季產量下降以及 2022 年銷售時間也對比較產生了一定影響。

Moving to the middle of the slide. Our realized price declined significantly alongside a pullback in the price of NdPr in the market. Moving to the right. Production costs increased $330 per ton driven primarily by Stage II ramp activities, including longer plant turnarounds and the impact of descaling stand-alone concentrate production.

移動到幻燈片的中間。隨著市場上镨镨價格的回落，我們的實現價格大幅下降。向右移動。生產成本增加了每噸 330 美元，主要是由於第二階段的產能提升活動，包括更長的工廠週轉時間和除垢獨立精礦產生產的影響。

Given a fair amount of our Stage I concentrate production costs are fixed, spreading those costs as well as plant turnaround and general site-wide costs over smaller sales volumes results in this lower fixed cost absorption.

鑑於我們第一階段濃縮物的相當一部分生產成本是固定的，將這些成本以及工廠週轉和一般場地成本分攤到較小的銷售上會導致固定成本吸收較低。

Lastly, on the far right, we produced 200 metric tons of NdPr oxide in 2023, closing our inaugural year of Stage II production with a nice sequential lift in the fourth quarter as we guided to on our last call.

最後，在最右邊，我們在2023 年生產了200 公噸NdPr 氧化物，結束了我們第二階段生產的第一年，正如我們在上次電話會議中所指導的那樣，第四季度的連續產量大幅提升。

Moving to Slide 7 and our full year financials. Revenue in 2023 was impacted primarily by the decline in realized prices as well as the change in volumes previously discussed as we ramp Stage II. The flow-through of pricing was the primary driver of the decline in adjusted EBITDA in addition to the fixed cost absorption just discussed.

前往投影片 7 和我們的全年財務狀況。 2023 年收入主要受到實現價格下降以及先前討論的第二階段產量變化的影響。除了剛才討論的固定成本吸收之外，定價的流通是調整後 EBITDA 下降的主要驅動因素。

Lastly, we continue to make certain modest investments in our corporate infrastructure. Some of which will continue through the early part of 2024 before declining in the back half of the year, most notably an investment in a new SAP implementation that goes live in Q2.

最後，我們持續對企業基礎設施進行一定的適度投資。其中一些將持續到 2024 年初，然後在今年下半年下降，最引人注目的是對第二季投入使用的新 SAP 實施的投資。

Despite the lower average price during the year, EBITDA margins were still quite robust at 40%. The change in adjusted diluted EPS was primarily impacted by the same drivers just discussed, in addition to higher depreciation brought on by additional assets, namely the rest of the Stage II circuits being placed into service during the year, partially offset by higher interest income on our cash balance and lower income tax expense.

儘管年內平均價格較低，但 EBITDA 利潤率仍然相當強勁，達到 40%。調整後攤薄每股收益的變化主要受到剛才討論的相同驅動因素的影響，此外還有額外資產帶來的更高折舊，即第二階段電路的其餘部分在年內投入使用，部分被更高的利息收入所抵銷。我們的現金餘額和較低的所得稅費用。

Turning to Slide 8 in our fourth quarter results. Concentrate production of 9,257 tons was down year-over-year, primarily due to higher downtime, both planned and unplanned in the quarter. Michael will expand on this in a moment. Concentrate sales volumes fell around 2,000 tons sequentially as we consumed more concentrate in Stage II circuits to produce NdPr and other refined products.

轉向第四季業績中的幻燈片 8。精礦產量年減 9,257 噸，主要是由於本季計畫內和計畫外的停機時間增加。邁克爾稍後將詳細闡述這一點。由於我們在第二階段循環中消耗更多精礦來生產镨镨和其他精煉產品，精礦銷售量較上季下降約 2,000 噸。

Production costs increased $373 per metric ton sequentially from the combination of our longer more detailed plant turnaround as well as the more pronounced descaling on our Stage I production costs in the quarter.

由於我們更長、更詳細的工廠週轉時間以及本季第一階段生產成本更明顯的除垢，生產成本每噸增加了 373 美元。

For context on the planned turnaround expenses. We think about Stage I related facilities at Mountain Pass as essentially 3 interconnected operations with mining and crushing, beneficiation and tailings management, the primary targets, along with site-wide infrastructure of our power plant, water treatment plant at others.

有關計劃週轉費用的背景資訊。我們認為帕斯山第一階段的相關設施本質上是 3 個相互關聯的業務，主要目標是採礦和破碎、選礦和尾礦管理，以及我們發電廠、其他水處理廠的全場基礎設施​​。

With Stage II now in service, these turnarounds now encompass 9 additional plants, including our drying and roasting circuits, leach, impurity removal, brine purification, separation circuits and multiple product finishing circuits. As well as a corresponding increase in site-wide infrastructure and support functions. I cannot emphasize enough how well the maintenance and operations teams performed this quarter with all of these new demands.

隨著第二階段的投入使用，這些改造現在包括 9 個額外的工廠，包括我們的乾燥和烘烤迴路、浸出、雜質去除、鹽水淨化、分離迴路和多個產品精加工迴路。以及全站基礎設施和支援功能的相應增加。我無法充分強調本季維護和營運團隊在滿足所有這些新需求方面的表現。

One further note on the production costs is that the Stage II portion is down sequentially and year-over-year as more of these costs are now building into inventory. Following the NdPr product through the midstream refining and metallization processes versus being expensed through the P&L.

關於生產成本的另一個注意事項是，第二階段部分的成本逐年下降，因為更多的這些成本現在已計入庫存。透過中游精煉和金屬化工藝追蹤 NdPr 產品，而不是透過損益表進行費用化。

Note also that some of our cost of goods sold in the quarter was related to our modest NdPr sales, as well as other rare earth product sales and were not included in the production cost calculation. When you strip out all of the one-timers and more difficult compares, we see baseline concentrate production costs up low to mid-single digits year-over-year.

另請注意，本季銷售的部分商品成本與我們適度的 NdPr 銷售以及其他稀土產品銷售有關，並未包含在生產成本計算中。當你剔除所有一次性產品和更困難的比較時，我們看到基線精礦生產成本比去年同期上升到低至中個位數。

Lastly, in the quarter, we determined that the carrying cost of a portion of our early separated product inventory exceeded its net realizable value based on the recent rapid decline in spot pricing. As we've spoken about in the past, our early cost of production of separated product is higher than our expected costs once we reach our full production levels, given we are staffed for higher production rates and early production often requires additional labor and certain rework that will not recur once operations normalize.

最後，在本季度，根據近期現貨價格的快速下跌，我們確定部分早期分離產品庫存的持有成本超過了其可變現淨值。正如我們過去談到的，一旦我們達到全面生產水平，我們的分離產品的早期生產成本就會高於我們的預期成本，因為我們配備了更高的生產率的人員，並且早期生產通常需要額外的勞動力和某些返工一旦營運正常化，這種情況就不會再發生。

This resulted in us taking a write-down of $2.3 million in the quarter, which was included in cost of sales in the P&L and impacted our adjusted EBITDA. More than half of this charge was related to lanthanum products, where our per unit cost of production is particularly sensitive to throughput. But where we aren't yet pushing to maximize volumes as we put the finishing touches on the logistics and supply chain to serve our North American Lanthanum customers.

這導致我們在本季減記了 230 萬美元，這已包含在損益表的銷售成本中，並影響了我們調整後的 EBITDA。其中一半以上的費用與鑭產品有關，我們的單位生產成本對產量特別敏感。但我們尚未努力實現產量最大化，因為我們正在對物流和供應鏈進行最後的修飾，以服務我們的北美鑭客戶。

These charges are not unexpected as we ramp the plant and may continue into Q1. That said, peeling back the onion and looking at the circuit-by-circuit cost profile gives us further confidence in achieving our expected per unit cost profile as we ramp towards run rate levels.

隨著我們擴大工廠規模並可能持續到第一季度，這些費用並不令人意外。也就是說，剝開洋蔥並查看逐條電路的成本概況，讓我們在朝著運行率水平邁進時，對實現預期的每單位成本概況更有信心。

Moving to Slide 9. You can see our revenue and adjusted EBITDA results, again impacted mainly by pricing in our concentrate sales volumes as previously discussed. With regards to concentrate pricing specifically. Assuming current spot prices hold for the remainder of the current quarter, we would expect a mid-teens sequential decline in first quarter realized concentrate pricing.

轉向投影片 9。您可以看到我們的收入和調整後的 EBITDA 結果，同樣主要受到我們前面討論的精礦銷售定價的影響。具體來說，就是集中定價。假設當前現貨價格在本季剩餘時間內保持不變，我們預期第一季實現的精礦定價將連續下降約 15%。

As for NdPr oxide pricing and oxide equivalent prices for metal sales, we expect prices to reflect a more notable WACC with Q1 prices based off of the Q4 average market price. We expect our realizations to be roughly in the middle of the calculated spot market price and the spot price net of Chinese VAT.

至於金屬銷售的 NdPr 氧化物定價和氧化物當量價格，我們預期價格將反映更顯著的 WACC，第一季價格是基於第四季平均市場價格。我們預計我們的實現將大致處於計算的現貨市場價格和扣除中國增值稅的現貨價格的中間。

Moving on to the balance sheet and our CapEx spend in 2023. We ended the year with just under $1 billion of gross cash and over $300 million of net cash. As for CapEx, we spent $262 million on gross CapEx or $259 million, net of $2.8 million received from the Department of Defense. Net growth CapEx totaled $244 million with roughly $15 million of maintenance CapEx during the year.

接下來是 2023 年的資產負債表和資本支出。年底時，我們的總現金略低於 10 億美元，淨現金超過 3 億美元。至於資本支出，我們的總資本支出為 2.62 億美元，即 2.59 億美元，扣除從國防部收到的 280 萬美元。本年度淨成長資本支出總計 2.44 億美元，其中維護資本支出約 1,500 萬美元。

Regarding cash flow, 2023 was a year of significant investment in working capital with some amount of permanent increases in work-in-process inventory from our commissioning and ramp-up of Stage II as well as spare parts and raw materials as we endeavor to maintain the same world-class uptime levels in Stage II as we've seen in Stage I.

就現金流而言，2023 年是營運資本大量投資的一年，由於我們第二階段的調試和產能增加，在製品庫存以及備件和原材料的永久性增加，因為我們努力維持第二階段的正常運行時間水平與我們在第一階段看到的相同。

Further working capital investment was also required in semi-finished goods to fill certain sales and toll processing channels with separated product inventory to maintain sufficient on-the-ground inventory for continuous metal production. These investments will set us up to meet our growing customer needs, particularly in Japan and maintain operational flexibility. While some of that investment is, therefore, semi-permanent, some will indeed convert to revenue and cash flow starting in Q1 as we ramp our sales of NdPr metal to Japan, which I'll talk about in a moment.

還需要對半成品進行進一步的營運資本投資，以單獨的產品庫存來填充某些銷售和來料加工管道，從而為連續金屬生產維持足夠的現場庫存。這些投資將使我們能夠滿足不斷增長的客戶需求（特別是在日本）並保持營運靈活性。因此，雖然其中一些投資是半永久性的，但隨著我們加強對日本的镨金屬銷售力度，一些投資確實會從第一季開始轉化為收入和現金流，我稍後會討論這一點。

Further, we invested approximately $10 million in Q4 in VRX Holdco, the ultimate owner of our primary toll processing partner in Vietnam. This investment funded the expansion of the VRX metallization facility and gives us a 49% stake in the business. Through this investment, we have secured the ability to ultimately reduce as much as 2/3 of Mountain Pass' target NdPr oxide output into metal, significantly expanding the number of markets and customers we can serve, particularly outside of China. We will recognize our proportional share of VRX financial results as an equity method investment in our financial statements, which will modestly impact our net income and EPS compares beginning in Q1.

此外，我們在第四季度向 VRX Holdco 投資了約 1000 萬美元，VRX Holdco 是我們在越南的主要來料加工合作夥伴的最終所有者。這項投資為 VRX 金屬化工廠的擴建提供了資金，並使我們擁有該業務 49% 的股份。透過這項投資，我們最終能夠將帕斯山目標 NdPr 氧化物產量減少 2/3 為金屬，從而顯著擴大我們可以服務的市場和客戶數量，特別是在中國以外的市場和客戶。我們將在財務報表中將 VRX 財務業績的比例份額確認為權益法投資，這將對我們從第一季開始的淨利潤和每股收益進行適度影響。

While we generally do not provide forward-looking guidance, I do want to walk through how we think about 2024 operationally and financially. Firstly, as it relates to separated product sales, depending on the timing of shipping, we expect to book a little more than 100 tons of NdPr sales in the first quarter. Michael will cover our production ramp in detail in a moment, but given the current pricing environment, I wanted to highlight that we are now tactically responding to this market environment by managing our separations ramp for the remainder of the year.

雖然我們通常不提供前瞻性指導，但我確實想介紹我們對 2024 年營運和財務的看法。首先，由於涉及分離產品銷售，根據發貨時間，我們預計第一季將預訂略高於 100 噸的 NdPr 銷售。麥可稍後將詳細介紹我們的產量成長，但考慮到當前的定價環境，我想強調的是，我們現在正在透過管理今年剩餘時間的分離成長來戰術性地應對這一市場環境。

Our goal this year is to maximize our near-term cash flow potential while we position MP for maximum long-term upside. To be clear, we remain extremely confident in our ability to achieve our targeted throughput levels and production costs but how we get there really matters in a low price environment.

我們今年的目標是最大化我們的近期現金流潛力，同時我們將 MP 定位為最大的長期上升空間。需要明確的是，我們對實現目標吞吐量水準和生產成本的能力仍然非常有信心，但在低價環境下我們如何實現這一目標確實很重要。

Let me provide an illustrative example. We capture the significant majority of our theoretical gross profit via our concentrate business. But as we move downstream to refining, we capture a material incremental profitability. The higher the NdPr price, the greater the incremental profit potential.

讓我舉一個說明性的例子。我們透過精礦業務獲得了理論毛利的絕大部分。但當我們向下游進行精煉時，我們獲得了實質的增量獲利。镨镨價格越高，增量利潤潛力越大。

Because our concentrate product is salable though, we always want to think about that as an opportunity cost versus the state of the world where our refined product cost structure is not fully optimized. Put simply, every single dollar of incremental variable costs that we can avoid as we optimize our process conditions is weighed against the opportunity cost of selling our upstream product.

因為我們的濃縮產品是可銷售的，所以我們總是想將其視為機會成本，而不是我們的精煉產品成本結構尚未完全優化的世界狀況。簡而言之，我們在優化製程條件時可以避免的每一美元增量變動成本都會與銷售上游產品的機會成本進行權衡。

Ordinarily, we would not think so much about this at, say, $90 or $150 NdPr, shaving, say, $2 per kilogram off of production costs is less important relative to maximizing the refining ramp as quickly as possible. But again, illustratively and not as any kind of guidance, at a $35 per kilogram normalized production cost of refined oxide in a $50 NdPr world, $2 of unnecessary inefficiencies might eat up most or exceed a lot of the incremental benefit net of the opportunity cost when you factor in all of the flow-through impacts.

通常，在 90 美元或 150 美元的 NdPr 價格上，我們不會考慮太多，比如說，每公斤生產成本削減 2 美元，相對於盡快最大化煉油量來說並不那麼重要。但同樣，作為說明性的而非任何形式的指導，在50 美元的NdPr 世界中，精煉氧化物的標準化生產成本為每公斤35 美元，2 美元的不必要的低效率可能會消耗掉大部分或超過扣除機會成本的增量效益。當您考慮所有流通影響時。

So think of this as mainly just a 2024 model consideration. But MP is uniquely positioned with added downside production by ramping more methodically in a low price environment. We will be thoughtful about utilizing that advantage, and Michael will expand on this in more detail in a moment.

因此，我們主要將此視為 2024 年模型的考慮因素。但 MP 處於獨特的地位，透過在低價環境下更有條理地提高產量，增加了下行產量。我們將認真考慮如何利用這一優勢，邁克爾稍後將對此進行更詳細的闡述。

Turning to our magnetics business. We are thrilled with our early progress and expect early revenue and modest positive EBITDA contributions from Fort Worth metal sales starting later this year. Importantly, as we focus on capital efficient growth, we expect the cash flow impact of early production of magnetic precursor products in Fort Worth to be much more meaningful than their P&L impact, given our current expectation of hitting certain production milestones that will result in material product prepayments, which we expect to be reflected in our financial statements as deferred revenue.

轉向我們的磁性業務。我們對我們的早期進展感到興奮，並預計從今年稍後開始，沃斯堡金屬銷售將帶來早期收入和適度的積極 EBITDA 貢獻。重要的是，當我們專注於資本效率成長時，我們預期沃斯堡磁性前驅產品早期生產的現金流量影響比其損益影響更有意義，因為我們目前預期達到某些生產里程碑，這將導致材料產品預付款，我們預計將在我們的財務報表中反映為遞延收入。

While customer discussions are still ongoing, and we must continue to execute strongly, we expect that operational success in delivering early American-made NdPr metal to our customers this year should result in our sources and uses of cash in the magnetics business being roughly neutral in 2024.

雖然客戶討論仍在進行中，而且我們必須繼續強有力地執行，但我們預計，今年向客戶交付早期美國製造的NdPr 金屬的運營成功應該會導致我們在磁性業務中的現金來源和使用大致呈中性。 2024 年。

Regarding CapEx, we have consistently guided to a roughly $700 million net growth capital plan for the last couple of years as our total cost to achieve our goals of full rare separations at Mountain Pass and magnet and precursor product production in Fort Worth.

關於資本支出，過去幾年我們一直指導約 7 億美元的淨成長資本計劃，作為實現帕斯山完全稀有分離以及沃斯堡磁鐵和前體產品生產目標的總成本。

Importantly, we remain within the margin of error on that assessment despite enduring inflation since our initial forecast. While we had initially expected slightly higher CapEx than reported in 2023, some of that spend will slip to 2024. So for the full year of '24, we expect to spend between approximately $200 million to $250 million on total CapEx, including maintenance CapEx.

重要的是，儘管自我們最初預測以來通膨持續存在，但我們的評估仍處於誤差範圍內。雖然我們最初預計資本支出將略高於2023 年報告的水平，但其中一些支出將推遲到2024 年。因此，對於24 年全年，我們預計總資本支出將支出約2 億至2.5 億美元，包括維護資本支出。

Within this capital plan, we expect to continue to make strong progress on our previously disclosed initiatives as well as further some of the early stages of Upstream 60K and other potential high-return investments in Mountain Pass that will further strengthen and improve our production cost profile.

在此資本計劃中，我們預計將繼續在先前披露的計劃上取得強勁進展，並進一步推進上游60K 的一些早期階段以及帕斯山的其他潛在高回報投資，這將進一步加強和改善我們的生產成本狀況。

Even with this investment, we expect to maintain a very strong capital position through this pricing down cycle. Taking current spot prices and with all of the caveats that go into forecasting, both regarding pricing expectations as well as regarding our timeline to execution.

即使有了這筆投資，我們預計在這個定價下降週期中仍能維持非常強勁的資本狀況。考慮當前的現貨價格以及預測中的所有註意事項，既涉及定價預期，也涉及我們的執行時間表。

We expect to end 2024 with at least $200 million to $250 million of net cash on the balance sheet or greater than $900 million of gross cash, with our strongly cash-generative concentrate business, a thoughtful ramp of Stage II and normalization of the relevant working capital investment, as well as achievement of milestones in Stage III leading to certain product prepayments, and the receipt of initial 45x production tax credits.

我們預計到2024 年底，資產負債表上的淨現金至少為2 億至2.5 億美元，現金總額將超過9 億美元，我們的濃縮業務具有強大的現金產生能力，第二階段的深思熟慮的增長以及相關工作的正常化資本投資，以及實現第三階段的里程碑，從而獲得某些產品預付款，並獲得初始 45 倍的生產稅收抵免。

We see strongly positive operating cash flow funding a significant portion of our capital plan. With that expectation set and a lot of execution ahead of us, I will turn it over to Michael to discuss our Q4 operational results. Michael?

我們看到強勁的正營運現金流為我們的資本計畫提供了很大一部分資金。有了這樣的期望，我們還有大量的執行任務，我將把它交給麥可來討論我們第四季的營運結果。麥可？

Thanks, Ryan. The fourth quarter was an exciting but challenging quarter for the Mountain Pass operation. In our Upstream business, concentrate production per operating hour was up year-over-year. However, several factors combined for lower operating hours and therefore concentrate production.

謝謝，瑞安。對於帕斯山業務來說，第四季是一個令人興奮但充滿挑戰的季度。在我們的上游業務中，每個作業小時的精礦產量比去年同期成長。然而，多種因素綜合在一起導致了運行時間的縮短，從而集中了生產。

As Ryan just discussed, in October, we had our first site-wide scheduled outage that included all of the Stage II operations. The outage was well executed and completed on schedule. Upon restart in early November, we returned to solid performance with less rework required than is often the case.

正如瑞安剛剛討論的那樣，十月份，我們進行了第一次全站點範圍內的計劃停機，其中包括所有第二階段的操作。這次停電執行得很好，如期完成。 11 月初重新啟動後，我們恢復了穩定的性能，所需的返工量比通常情況要少。

However, several events in December collectively cost us approximately 6 days of production in the mill. Approximately 4 of these were the result of unexpected power plant outages. On 2 consecutive weekends, 2 ancillary instruments in our power plant failed approximately 4 months prior to their planned replacement.

然而，12 月發生的幾起事件總共導致工廠停產約 6 天。其中約 4 次是由於發電廠意外停電造成的。在連續 2 個週末，我們發電廠的 2 台輔助儀器在計劃更換前約 4 個月出現故障。

Instrument life was somewhat skewed from the several years of powered up but non-operating status of the plants. And while the cause was promptly identified and we had parts available, service is not immediately available locally. It was an important lesson learned, and we are confident that our current preventative maintenance scheduling procedures will prevent an issue like this from ever reoccurring.

儀器壽命與工廠通電但非運轉狀態的幾年有所偏差。雖然原因很快就查明了，而且我們有可用的零件，但當地無法立即提供服務。這是一個重要的教訓，我們相信我們目前的預防性維護計劃程序將防止此類問題再次發生。

Also in December, we pulled forward certain grinding circuit maintenance that we had expected to not need until our next outage. This cost us another 1.5 days of production. But it has released additional grinding circuit capacity and improved grinding stability into 2024.

同樣在 12 月，我們提前了某些研磨迴路維護工作，我們原本預計在下次停電之前不需要這些維護工作。這又花了我們 1.5 天的製作時間。但到 2024 年，它已經釋放了額外的研磨迴路產能並提高了研磨穩定性。

In all, our upstream operations had another solid year with over 92% uptime. In addition, 2023 resulted in our highest level of REO production per hour of uptime, demonstrating our continued efforts to improve efficiency and productivity. We expect renewed growth in 2024.

總而言之，我們的上游業務又迎來了穩健的一年，正常運作時間超過 92%。此外，到 2023 年，我們每小時正常運行時間的 REO 產量達到最高水平，這表明我們在提高效率和生產力方面做出了持續努力。我們預計 2024 年將出現新的成長。

As previously mentioned, the Stage II midstream circuits had their inaugural scheduled outage, providing us with the opportunity to conduct a thorough inspection of the new equipment after 3 to 9 months of service. On a positive note, there were few serious mechanical discoveries or surprises.

如前所述，第二階段中游電路首次規劃停運，為我們提供了在新設備投入使用 3 至 9 個月後對新設備進行徹底檢查的機會。從正面的方面來看，幾乎沒有什麼重大的機械發現或驚喜。

However, we identified more rubberware than expected in certain rubber-lined vessels and agitators. After a thorough review, we attribute the issue to subpar installation workmanship rather than to inappropriate materials of construction for the service. And fortunately, addressing these issues required a comprehensive process of de-inventorying, preparing, curing and re-inventorying circuits, which led to a slower recovery from the outage than planned.

然而，我們在某些​​橡膠襯裡容器和攪拌器中發現了比預期更多的橡膠器具。經過徹底審查後，我們將問題歸咎於安裝工藝不合格，而不是施工材料不適合該服務。幸運的是，解決這些問題需要一個全面的流程，包括去庫存、準備、修復和重新庫存電路，這導致停電恢復速度比計劃的要慢。

Part of the Stage II optimization project included the installation of a new cerium extraction section in our existing separation circuit that separates NdPr from lanthanum and cerium.

第二階段優化專案的一部分包括在我們現有的分離迴路中安裝新的鈰提取部分，將鑩镨與鑭和鈰分開。

In the fourth quarter, we identified an excursion in the new section that impacted the NdPr production quality. We took appropriate action to restore stability, though this resulted in several weeks of lost output. Recognizing this new risk, we have adjusted our monitoring and models and are confident we have put this issue behind us for good.

在第四季度，我們發現新部分中存在影響 NdPr 生產品質的偏差。我們採取了適當的行動來恢復穩定，儘管這導致了數週的產出損失。在認識到這一新風險後，我們調整了監控和模型，並有信心將這個問題永遠拋在腦後。

During this incident, we took the opportunity to implement certain changes that significantly increased concentration in the circuit and is expected to result in higher throughput capability and stability going forward. Despite all these challenges, we produced 150 tonnes of NdPr oxide in the quarter, 3x that of the previous period.

在此事件中，我們藉此機會實施了某些改變，顯著提高了電路的集中度，預計將帶來更高的吞吐量和穩定性。儘管面臨所有這些挑戰，我們在本季度生產了 150 噸镨镨氧化物，是上一時期的 3 倍。

In summary, after several quarters with all Stage II circuits in operation, we have reached a significant turning point. We can feel that most circuits, particularly those that were commissioned earlier in 2023 as well as our operations teams are starting to come together. The core chemistry and technology continue to perform. This progress bolsters my confidence that production volume and quality will continue to improve.

總而言之，經過幾個季度所有第二階段電路投入運作後，我們已經達到了一個重要的轉折點。我們可以感覺到，大多數賽道，尤其是 2023 年初投入使用的賽道以及我們的營運團隊都開始團結起來。核心化學和技術繼續發揮作用。這一進展增強了我對產量和品質將繼續提高的信心。

Importantly, in the last 2 quarters, we have qualified our NdPr oxide and NdPr metal with many of our major customers and target customers. So going forward, we will more quickly convert production into revenue.

重要的是，在過去的兩個季度中，我們已經透過許多主要客戶和目標客戶對我們的 NdPr 氧化物和 NdPr 金屬進行了鑑定。因此，展望未來，我們將更快地將產量轉化為收入。

However, in the current pricing environment, we are even more focused on extracting operational efficiencies and reducing the variable cost of production as we increase NdPr production volumes. Where yields have room for improvement, we are focusing on optimization before pushing volume for volume's sake.

然而，在目前的定價環境下，隨著镨镨產量的增加，我們更加重視提高營運效率並降低變動生產成本。在產量有改進空間的地方，我們會專注在優化，然後為了銷售量而增加產量。

Our existing low-cost concentrate operation affords us the flexibility to take this prudent approach that maximizes profits and cash generation while ensuring we drive towards our integrated model and market-leading cost structure for separated products.

我們現有的低成本濃縮業務使我們能夠靈活地採取這種審慎的方法，最大限度地提高利潤和現金生成，同時確保我們推動我們的一體化模式和市場領先的分離產品成本結構。

For the latter, we continue to make important progress. To this end, I'd like to reiterate that all circuits are running at commercial volumes sufficient to evaluate capability and chemistry. But we continue to run at relatively lower uptime in certain circuits. To some extent, this creates higher costs in the near-term when viewed solely from the lens of Stage II operations.

對於後者，我們持續取得重要進展。為此，我想重申，所有電路都以足以評估能力和化學反應的商業量運作。但在某些電路中，我們的正常運作時間仍然相對較短。在某種程度上，僅從第二階段的營運角度來看，這會在短期內造成更高的成本。

In the short-term, we are incurring incremental variable costs from certain inefficiencies, bottlenecks and admittedly areas where we must improve our execution. We are working furiously to address these and week after week, we see progress. There are sometimes progress in one area, reveals additional opportunity for improvement elsewhere.

在短期內，我們會因某些低效率、瓶頸以及我們必須改善執行力的領域而產生增量變動成本。我們正在努力解決這些問題，一周又一周，我們看到了進展。有時，某一領域的進展會揭示其他領域的其他改進機會。

I'd like to provide a few examples of the types of improvements we are making at this stage, so you can understand our philosophy. In our leach circuit, we have been working towards achieving and consistently maintaining our target 85% cerium rejection with very high NdPr recovery. This will reduce reagent consumption per ton of NdPr produced and other variable costs.

我想提供一些我們現階段正在進行的改進類型的範例，以便您可以了解我們的理念。在我們的浸出迴路中，我們一直致力於實現並持續保持 85% 的鈰去除率和非常高的 NdPr 回收率的目標。這將減少每噸镨生產的試劑消耗和其他變動成本。

Recently, we've made several key breakthroughs with NdPr yield increasing more than 5%, while at the same time, driving a 5% plus, absolute improvement in cerium rejection. There is still opportunity to improve further, but we believe the games to date to be sustainable and will be more evident in our 2Q production and financial results.

最近，我們取得了幾項關鍵突破，NdPr 產量提高了 5% 以上，同時，鈰的排斥率絕對提高了 5% 以上。仍有進一步改進的機會，但我們相信迄今為止的遊戲是可持續的，並將在我們的第二季生產和財務業績中更加明顯。

Next, the first step of our separation process involves the bulk separation of light rare earths from heavy rare earths or SEG+. Our primary focus here is on the efficiency and effectiveness of this separation, limiting the amount of light rare earths in our SEG+ and vice versa. We had initially assumed greater than 5% of the SEG+ fraction would be Nd and Pr.

接下來，我們分離過程的第一步涉及從重稀土或 SEG+ 中批量分離輕稀土。我們的主要關注點是這種分離的效率和有效性，限制 SEG+ 中輕稀土的含量，反之亦然。我們最初假設超過 5% 的 SEG+ 部分是 Nd 和 Pr。

This is now down to less than 0.5% over 90% of the time. At the same time, we remain focused on 100% on spec for samarium in the light rare earth extraction. These improvements benefit NdPr production volume per ton of concentrate produced. And with greater stability, we have achieved a 25% reduction in reagent usage per ton of feed in this particular circuit down to our target levels with additional opportunity to improve from here.

現在，90% 的時間裡這一比例已降至 0.5% 以下。同時，我們仍然專注於輕稀土萃取中釤的 100% 規格。這些改進有利於每噸精礦生產的 NdPr 產量。憑藉更高的穩定性，我們在該特定迴路中每噸飼料的試劑使用量減少了 25%，降至我們的目標水平，並有額外的改進機會。

Lastly, lanthanum production, which represents the largest volume of our production, but only a single-digit percentage of target revenue. We've recently seen a 1/3 increase in per shift production capability. However, this is an area where we have significant room for operational and mechanical debottlenecking to reduce our cost of production.

最後是鑭產量，它占我們產量的最大部分，但僅佔目標收入的個位數百分比。我們最近發現每班生產能力增加了 1/3。然而，在這個領域，我們有很大的空間來消除營運和機械瓶頸，以降低生產成本。

We will look to implement several low-cost upgrades in 2Q and that will help reduce the burden on our operators and maintenance teams. We expect to achieve a return on investment for these upgrades in under a year. As for 1Q, we expect that concentrate production will return to normal run rates, and the power plant will operate at the greater than 99.9% reliability that we've experienced for the first 2 years of operations.

我們將尋求在第二季實施多項低成本升級，這將有助於減輕我們的營運商和維護團隊的負擔。我們預計將在一年內實現這些升級的投資回報。至於第一季度，我們預計精礦產量將恢復到正常運作水平，發電廠將以我們前兩年營運經歷的超過 99.9% 的可靠性運作。

Given our commitment to ramping as efficiently as possible in the current environment, we have spent much of January and February extracting operational efficiencies and reducing variable costs through focused attention on the above projects. Therefore, in 1Q, we do not expect significant growth in NdPr production relative to 4Q.

鑑於我們致力於在當前環境下盡可能高效地提高產量，我們花了 1 月和 2 月的大部分時間透過重點關注上述項目來提高營運效率並降低可變成本。因此，我們預計第一季NdPr產量相對第四季不會大幅成長。

The difference will be made up for by higher concentrate production. But from 2Q on, we expect the volume of on-spec oxide we produce will grow materially, which will also result in more obvious improvements in our cost of production. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Jim.

這一差異將透過提高精礦產量來彌補。但從第二季開始，我們預計我們生產的合格氧化物的數量將大幅成長，這也將導致我們的生產成本有更明顯的改善。有了這個，我會把它轉回給吉姆。

Thanks, Michael. As you just heard from Michael, the team at Mountain Pass is doing an excellent job. We are executing on a lot of levels, whether it be on production efficiencies, the refining ramp or the upstream expansion. The same can be said for the magnetics team. A lot of progress has been made, and they are working maniacally towards first revenue while being mindful of capital spend.

謝謝，麥可。正如您剛剛從邁克爾那裡聽到的那樣，帕斯山的團隊做得非常出色。我們正在許多層面上執行，無論是生產效率、煉油產能或上游擴張。對於磁學團隊也是如此。已經取得了很多進展，他們正在瘋狂地努力爭取第一筆收入，同時注意資本支出。

Unfortunately, the market has not been kind to say the least. The price of NdPr has collapsed nearly 70% from its peak in 2022. The decline has been particularly steep over the past year, beginning essentially just as we were about to commission Stage II. I know we have discussed on recent calls, the demand impacts from the macro factors in basic industries in China. But I think it is obvious to state that something bigger and more dramatic has happened in recent months.

不幸的是，市場至少可以說並不友善。镨镨的價格已從 2022 年的峰值下跌了近 70%。過去一年的跌幅尤其急劇，基本上是在我們即將投產第二階段時開始的。我知道我們在最近的電話會議中討論了宏觀因素對中國基礎工業需求的影響。但我認為很明顯，最近幾個月發生了更大、更戲劇性的事情。

The pendulum has officially swung. Wall Street has decided it is Armageddon for the electric vehicle right now. We have all seen the press reports around the disappointing EV sales versus expectations and the rising inventories. This was followed by announcements from a number of major OEMs around increased capital discipline and slowing down electrification timelines.

鐘擺已經正式擺動。華爾街認為電動車現在正面臨末日審判。我們都看到了有關電動車銷量與預期令人失望以及庫存上升的新聞報道。隨後，許多主要原始設備製造商宣布加強資本紀律並放慢電氣化時間表。

One bright spot has been the dramatic acceleration in hybrid sales which is bullish for NdPr demand relative to existing ICE penetration levels. In any case, for a variety of reasons, the timeline to electrification has been extended. And therefore, the near-term prospects for critical materials are now worse versus recent prior expectations. The cost of capital is now higher. We are seeing some stress. And my guess is we will see some distress out there. Some materials projects have been canceled, and I assume more will be.

一個亮點是混合動力車銷售的急劇加速，相對於現有的 ICE 滲透率水平，這對镨镨的需求有利。無論如何，由於各種原因，電氣化的時間表被延長了。因此，關鍵材料的近期前景現在比最近的預期更糟。現在資金成本更高。我們看到了一些壓力。我的猜測是我們會看到一些痛苦。一些材料項目已被取消，我認為還會有更多項目被取消。

That said, it is not economically rational to paint that broad brush equally across the material space. In rare earths, China controls in excess of 80% of the market via 2 super majors and then the remaining almost 20% is MP and Lynas.

也就是說，在物質空間上平等地繪製大畫筆在經濟上是不合理的。在稀土方面，中國透過兩大超級巨頭控制了超過80%的市場，剩下的近20%是MP和萊納斯。

Whatever Western EV reset is happening now, the Chinese OEMs are not stopping their downstream expansion. The strategic value of what we have remains. That said, the pricing environment is not something we can control. Neither is the pace of EV penetration nor the geopolitical landscape. Those will be what they will be.

無論西方電動車現在發生什麼變化，中國整車廠都不會停止向下游擴張。我們所擁有的戰略價值仍然存在。也就是說，定價環境不是我們可以控制的。電動車普及速度和地緣政治格局也都不是。這些將是他們將成為的。

What we can control is our operational execution and our financial and corporate management. Not so long ago, when our share price and NdPr prices were much higher, A number of aggressive investors pushed us to extend our balance sheet and buy back a significant amount of stock.

我們能控制的是我們的營運執行以及我們的財務和企業管理。不久前，當我們的股價和镨镨價格大幅上漲時，一些積極的投資者敦促我們擴大資產負債表並回購大量股票。

We made clear then that although we firmly believe in our execution capabilities and the long-term value of our assets, we are in a cyclical sector where we have to think about a variety of long-term scenarios. There is a lot of inherent leverage in commodities prices, so we have to proceed accordingly.

我們當時明確表示，儘管我們堅信我們的執行能力和資產的長期價值，但我們處於週期性行業，我們必須考慮各種長期情境。大宗商品價格存在著很大的內在槓桿作用，所以我們必須採取相應的行動。

Our decision to maintain a prudent balance sheet was the right decision. Now though, it seems like the market pendulum has swung too far given the uniquely strategic nature, low-cost position and replacement cost value of our assets. I think it is fair to say, given some recent press reports that there are others who really understand our assets and appreciate this.

我們維持審慎資產負債表的決定是正確的。但現在，鑑於我們資產獨特的戰略性質、低成本地位和重置成本價值，市場的鐘擺似乎已經擺動得太遠了。我認為可以公平地說，鑑於最近的一些媒體報道，還有其他人真正了解我們的資產並欣賞這一點。

So I wanted to mention this to lay the ground work that I'm not going to comment on M&A speculation at this time. If asked, I will just keep referring you back to this section in the transcript. So I hope you're enjoying it live right now.

所以我想提一下這一點，為我目前不打算對併購猜測發表評論奠定基礎。如果有人問起，我會繼續向您推薦文字記錄中的這一部分。所以我希望你現在能享受現場直播。

However, I want to be crystal clear. I'm the largest shareholder. Our management team and our employees are large shareholders. We take our fiduciary duties extremely seriously. To the extent something makes sense to do in the future, we will do it. You can count on us to be opportunistic and thoughtful.

然而，我想說得一清二楚。我是最大股東。我們的管理團隊和員工都是大股東。我們極度重視我們的信託責任。只要將來某件事有意義，我們就會去做。您可以信賴我們是機會主義且深思熟慮的。

In the meantime, all aspects of our organization will continue to execute with a somewhat new playbook. In the down cycle, the cost of capital is higher. That adds risk, and it means timing and payback matter more than achieving manufactured deadlines. Having the intellectual fortitude to throw out prior plans or assumptions, to be critical and to remain unemotional is paramount. It also means there are more home run opportunities. MP exists now as a result of one of those periods. So I do think patience with us will be rewarded. With that, operator?

同時，我們組織的各個面向將繼續以某種新的方式執行。在下行週期，資金成本更高。這增加了風險，這意味著時間安排和回報比完成預定期限更重要。擁有拋棄先前計劃或假設的智力毅力、保持批判性並保持冷靜是至關重要的。這也意味著有更多的本壘打機會。 MP 現在的存在就是這些時期之一的結果。所以我確實認為我們的耐心將會得到回報。那麼，操作員？

(Operator Instructions). Our first question today comes from David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）。我們今天的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum。

Thanks, Jim, Ryan and Michael. I guess I just wanted to understand -- just between -- Ryan and Michael, and Ryan, you kind of like laid out that obviously with NdPr pricing now like [$55 a kilo]. The efficiency that you give up just versus selling concentrate.

謝謝吉姆、瑞安和邁克爾。我想我只是想了解 - 就在 Ryan 和 Michael 之間，Ryan，你顯然喜歡用現在的 NdPr 定價（每公斤 55 美元）來闡述這一點。你所放棄的效率與銷售集中度比較。

I guess I kind of just wanted to square that with Michael's comments around just making some operational enhancements around the separation facility this year. If I take all of that together, has the organization changed how they think about what the max rate or the target is for NdPr production?

我想我只是想將這一點與邁克爾關於今年圍繞分離設施進行一些操作改進的評論相一致。如果我把所有這些放在一起，該組織是否改變了他們對镨镨產量最大速率或目標的看法？

Is it still in that sort of 500 tonne a month range or looking at things more fulsome now, is there a more balanced approach that we should expect over the long term, irrespective of where price is assuming that we get back to a $70 to $90 incentive level?

是否仍然在每月 500 噸的範圍內，或者現在考慮更豐富的情況，從長遠來看，是否有一種更平衡的方法是我們應該期待的，無論價格如何，假設我們回到 70 至 90 美元激勵水平？

Sure. David, it's Ryan. I'll start. I might push back on the $70 to $90 incentive level, but that's another question that we can address separately.

當然。大衛，我是瑞安。我開始吧。我可能會推遲 70 至 90 美元的激勵水平，但這是我們可以單獨解決的另一個問題。

I think to answer your core question, there is no change in our view of our long-term target production and our view, frankly, of where we think we will get from a cost structure perspective. We are very confident from the early results that we've seen in being a low-cost producer in the world. And we continue to build significant confidence in reaching our target production.

我認為要回答你的核心問題，我們對長期目標產量的看法沒有改變，坦白說，我們對從成本結構角度來看我們將達到什麼目標的看法沒有改變。從我們作為世界低成本生產商所看到的早期結果來看，我們非常有信心。我們持續對實現目標產量充滿信心。

I think what we're really trying to say is in these early stages of production, there are inherent early inefficiencies that, again, at a $70 to $90 price point, that incremental variable cost for those inefficiencies might not matter so much when you look at the incremental profit pool available going from concentrate to oxide.

我認為我們真正想說的是，在生產的早期階段，存在固有的早期低效率，同樣，在70 至90 美元的價格點上，當你看一下時，這些低效率的增量可變成本可能不那麼重要。從精礦到氧化物的可用增量利潤池。

When you're at a $50 price point, that profit pool, the incremental profit pool is a lot smaller. And so all we're really saying is we're thinking very, very closely about that incremental profit pool versus inefficiencies and the opportunity cost of selling some of that upstream product as (inaudible) in the interim.

當你的價格點是 50 美元時，利潤池、增加利潤池就會小很多。因此，我們真正要說的是，我們正在非常非常仔細地考慮增量利潤池與效率低下以及在此期間銷售某些上游產品（聽不清楚）的機會成本。

And so I think the big message here is we want to be scaled and ready for the up cycle, but we are not going to push volume for volume's sake, how we get to our target is really what matters in this pricing environment. That's the message. I don't know, Michael, if you have anything else you'd add on from an operational perspective.

因此，我認為這裡要傳達的重要訊息是，我們希望擴大規模並為上升週期做好準備，但我們不會為了銷售而增加銷量，在這種定價環境下，我們如何實現目標才是真正重要的。這就是訊息。邁克爾，我不知道您是否還有其他需要從操作角度補充的內容。

Not too much to add there. I think we're very comfortable with the ability to meet those production volumes that we had targeted. And as Ryan said, we're going to work through that in the most efficient way as possible.

那裡沒有太多要添加的。我認為我們對能夠滿足我們的目標產量感到非常滿意。正如瑞安所說，我們將盡可能以最有效的方式解決這個問題。

Appreciate it. I was hoping if you could give a little bit of color on just the 45x. I think you mentioned it as a source of funds this year. Could you just refresh us on the timing? And is that something that you've already applied for? And I guess, just what's the expectation, when we might have some more visibility around that?

欣賞它。我希望你能給 45x 一點顏色。我想你提到它是今年的資金來源。能為我們介紹一下時間嗎？這是您已經申請的嗎？我想，當我們對此有更多的了解時，我們的期望是什麼？

Sure. So David, the 45X is the production tax credit on the critical mineral side for NdPr oxide. You'll actually see on the balance sheet in the press release that we have nearly a $20 million government grant receivable. There's a lot of nuance to this calculation, and you're probably aware that there's quite a bit of ongoing dialogue with treasury as we speak about exactly the various definition of costs that make it into this calculation.

當然。 David，45X 是 NdPr 氧化物關鍵礦物方面的生產稅收抵免。事實上，您會在新聞稿的資產負債表上看到，我們有近 2000 萬美元的應收政府補助金。這個計算有很多細微差別，你可能知道，當我們談論這個計算中的成本的各種定義時，與財政部正在進行相當多的對話。

What we've put into our existing receivable and to my point earlier about this being a source of funds on the order of magnitude of $19 million in 2024 is based of a conservative approach to the proposed regulations.

我們對現有應收款的投入以及我之前所說的 2024 年 1900 萬美元數量級的資金來源都是基於對擬議法規的保守態度。

One of the nuances of our unique facts and circumstances here is the fact that we put hundreds of millions of dollars of Stage II related assets into service this year in order to meet our NdPr production, and made certain sales in the year.

我們獨特的事實和情況的細微差別之一是，我們今年投入了數億美元的第二階段相關資產，以滿足我們的镨镨產量，並在這一年取得了一定的銷售額。

And so those nuances allow us to take an initial credit in 2024. And then, of course, there would be ongoing production tax credits going forward, that's targeted at 10% of production cost. I think the overall debate right now with treasury is what exactly is the definition of production cost. And so get back to you on that one. But again, we feel confident in the numbers that we put forward here are the very conservative interpretation of that.

因此，這些細微差別使我們能夠在 2024 年獲得初始抵免。當然，接下來將持續提供生產稅收抵免，目標是生產成本的 10%。我認為目前與財務部門的整體爭論是生產成本的確切定義是什麼。那麼請回覆您。但我們再次對我們在這裡提出的數字充滿信心，這些數字是對此的非常保守的解釋。

Our next question today comes from George Gianarikas with Canaccord.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 George Gianarikas。

I'd like to ask Jim about your assessments on the pricing environment. We've had this discussion on conference calls past. And we've broken through that $60 level at which you thought that China Inc. was relatively unprofitable. I'm curious as to whether that's still your current thinking? And if that's so, how long you expect this to be at this level given that it's hard to make money at $50.

我想詢問吉姆您對定價環境的評估。我們過去曾在電話會議上進行過這樣的討論。我們已經突破了您認為中國公司相對無利可圖的 60 美元水準。我很好奇你現在還是這樣的想法嗎？如果是這樣，考慮到 50 美元很難賺錢，你預計這個水平會持續多久。

Sure, George. So with the caveat that always when it comes to pricing, things are pretty unpredictable, and I'm certainly not one who's going to be able to perfectly pick the direction of commodities prices. But I'll give some puts and takes here. I mean I think as we look around the EV landscape, there's a lot of talk -- there's a lot of moving parts with respect to interest rates and models and being a disappointment, range anxiety, different moving parts. But remember that 75% of demand is still basic industries in China. And those macro impacts are still kind of flowing through. So it's really hard to distill sort of what are the moving parts in this quarter.

當然，喬治。因此，需要注意的是，在定價方面，事情總是難以預測的，而且我當然不是一個能夠完美選擇大宗商品價格方向的人。但我會在這裡給出一些看跌期權和跌幅。我的意思是，我認為當我們環顧電動車領域時，有很多討論——在利率和模型方面有很多變化的部分，令人失望、里程焦慮、不同的變化部分。但請記住，中國75%的需求仍然是基礎工業。這些宏觀影響仍然在流動。因此，很難提煉出本季有哪些變化。

But again, long term, I just go back to at these levels pretty much -- as I said in our earlier comments, at these levels, new projects don't make any sense. We actually saw -- we saw some headlines this past week of a big project in Australia with government funding that is having huge cost overruns and is potentially uneconomic even up to -- there were some of the analyst reports, we're talking about $90 NdPr is NPV negative. And so I think in this environment, what we've seen is that there's been a lot of supply disruption as well as there has been demand destruction. And so there's just so many moving parts. But again, I keep going back to at these levels. At some point, the macro headwinds around 75% associated with sort of basic industries like HVAC or consumer electronics and some of the pullbacks that we've had in China, coupled with the 25% maybe disappointing in the EVs relative to what prior expectations were sort of some of the demand disruption but then sort of commensurate with that is this supply destruction.

但同樣，從長遠來看，我只是回到這些水平——正如我在之前的評論中所說，在這些水平上，新項目沒有任何意義。事實上，我們上週看到了一些頭條新聞，澳洲一個由政府資助的大型專案成本超支，甚至可能不經濟，有一些分析師報告，我們談論的是 90 美元NdPr 的 NPV 值為負。因此，我認為在這種環境下，我們看到的是，供應出現了嚴重中斷，需求也受到了破壞。所以有很多活動部件。但我還是會不斷回到這些水準。在某些時候，大約 75% 的宏觀阻力與 HVAC 或消費性電子產品等基礎行業以及我們在中國遇到的一些回調有關，再加上電動車相對於之前的預期可能令人失望的 25%某種程度的需求中斷，但與此相稱的是供應破壞。

And then I guess the last thing I would say on that is that I do think that on the demand side, this is really a hiccup or sort of an air pocket. And by that, I mean, if you look at what's happening out there where there's sort of a lot of talk about, is the EV -- sort of concern about the EV and you're seeing a lot of concern around the landscape. Hybrid sales were going crazy, right? You're seeing hybrid sales go up 80%, 90% in some cases. And so when we think about EV penetration, let's not forget that hybrids typically utilize 50% to 2/3 of the incremental NdPr that an ICE vehicle would use. And so if we're in this new state of the world where hybrids are going to be a big portion of the combined electric/battery electric, plug-in hybrid demand.

然後我想我要說的最後一件事是，我確實認為在需求方面，這確實是一個小問題或某種氣穴。我的意思是，如果你看看正在發生的事情，那裡有很多討論，那就是電動車——對電動車的擔憂，你會看到很多關於電動車的擔憂。混合動力銷售變得瘋狂，對嗎？您會發現混合動力銷量成長了 80%，在某些情況下甚至成長了 90%。因此，當我們考慮電動車普及率時，我們不要忘記，混合動力車通常使用 ICE 車輛使用的增量 NdPr 的 50% 到 2/3。因此，如果我們處於這個新的世界狀態，混合動力車將成為電動/電池電動、插電式混合動力需求的很大一部分。

I think that you're going to sort of see that growth of that 25% get back on track faster than people might think and then sort of some of the other macro things that will play out through China. So that's a long-winded way of saying, again, with respect to commodity prices, we don't know. But this environment is certainly -- demand will come back and then the supply destruction has been pretty remarkable as well. So we remain medium and long-term bullish, but in the short term is anyone's guess.

我認為你會看到這 25% 的成長回到正軌的速度比人們想像的要快，然後其他一些宏觀因素也會在中國發生。因此，這又是一個冗長的說法，就大宗商品價格而言，我們不知道。但這種環境肯定是──需求將會回升，然後供應的破壞也相當顯著。因此，我們仍然對中長期看漲，但短期內誰也說不準。

I really appreciate the color. Maybe just as a follow-up. I know you said your piece on the rumored Lynas merger or takeover. I'm just curious if you can entertain us. What would be the industrial logic of something like that in Europe business.

我真的很欣賞這種顏色。也許只是作為後續。我知道你對傳聞中的萊納斯合併或收購發表了自己的看法。我只是好奇你能否招待我們。歐洲商業類似的產業邏輯是什麼？

So I was wondering how many different ways I would get asked this question and what fun jokes I could have. And I guess that's a good way to ask it. I mean, I guess I'll just refer you back to the script. I don't want to comment on any M&A speculation. I appreciate the way you're asking. I mean, I guess, what I would say is that objectively, when you look at any company in a generic sense, there are always things that companies can learn from each other and cut costs around and all of that. So your guess around all those kinds of things, if you're looking at a specific situation, there certainly are those things. But again, I'm not going to comment other than just refer you back to what I said in the script.

所以我想知道我會以多少種不同的方式被問到這個問題，以及我能有什麼有趣的笑話。我想這是一個很好的提問方式。我的意思是，我想我會請你回顧劇本。我不想對任何併購猜測發表評論。我很欣賞你提問的方式。我的意思是，我想，我想說的是，客觀地，當你從一般意義上看待任何一家公司時，總有一些公司可以互相學習並削減成本等等的東西。所以你對所有這些事情的猜測，如果你正在考慮一個特定的情況，那麼肯定有這些事情。但同樣，我不會發表評論，只是請您回顧一下我在腳本中所說的內容。

Our next question today comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

Yes. So a question is -- I think Ryan mentioned about a prepayment that you will get on some of your downstream, I didn't understand if it was downstream or oxide sales. Can you comment a little bit more as to the level of this prepayment? And when do you expect to get it so we can properly model that?

是的。所以一個問題是——我認為瑞安提到了你將從一些下游獲得的預付款，我不明白它是下游還是氧化物銷售。您能否進一步評論一下預付款的水平？您預計什麼時候能得到它，以便我們能夠對其進行正確建模？

Carlos, it's Ryan. You were right. What we were talking about was related to the Fort Worth magnetics business and an expectation of prepayments over the course of the year that likely would help cover a very significant portion of the CapEx that's remaining for that facility. We're not going to go into specific details on timing or quantum. Obviously, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, customer conversations are ongoing. I think the major message though is that with operational success that we expect and that we're pushing towards as rapidly as possible. I tried to give you guys the building blocks to understand where we expect to end the year from a balance sheet and capital perspective. And so I think you can take those remarks and kind of do with them what you will to backsolve into the quantum here. But lot of puts and takes, but I think it's something that obviously is a very positive measure of success of ours as we go through the course of the year.

卡洛斯，我是瑞安。你是對的。我們討論的是沃斯堡磁性業務，以及今年預付款的預期，這可能有助於涵蓋該設施剩餘資本支出的很大一部分。我們不會討論有關時間或量子的具體細節。顯然，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，客戶對話正在進行中。我認為主要的訊息是，隨著我們預期的營運成功，我們正在盡快推動這一目標。我試圖為你們提供一些基礎知識，以便從資產負債表和資本的角度了解我們預計今年年底的情況。所以我認為你可以接受這些評論並用它們做一些你想要反解到量子中的事情。雖然有很多的投入和收穫，但我認為這顯然是衡量我們這一年的成功的一個非常積極的指標。

All right. Okay. And you also mentioned that the investment that you did, I think in the [foreign] company of the Vietnam, the tolling company that you're working with. I think you own 49% now. Is there an expectation that you stay at that level. Or would you potentially like to integrate a little bit more and maybe fully control that operation. So you have maybe -- I mean, you control a little bit more of your destiny on that tooling process.

好的。好的。您還提到您所做的投資，我認為是在越南的[外國]公司，即與您合作的收費公司。我想你現在擁有49%的股份。是否期望你保持在那個水平？或者您可能希望整合更多一點，並可能完全控制該操作。所以你可能——我的意思是，你在工具過程中更控制了自己的命運。

Yes, it's a great question. The 49% stake that we have in the business was really a factor of the amount of growth capital that we put in, in order to support the growth in potential output at that facility. I don't think we have any particular prescriptive view on how things may look over time other than to say, I think the structure that we have in place right now is working very well for us. In addition to the investment, we obviously have the tolling arrangement, which provides us with a lot of certainty as to the amount of volumes that we'll be able to drive through that facility over time. And so as it stands right now, I think that we've accomplished quite a bit with the combination of the tolling framework and investment in VRX.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我們在該業務中擁有 49% 的股份實際上是我們投入的成長資本的一個因素，以支持該工廠潛在產量的成長。我不認為我們對事情隨著時間的推移會如何發展有任何特定的規定性觀點，除了說，我認為我們現在所採用的結構對我們來說非常有效。除了投資之外，我們顯然還有收費安排，這為我們提供了很大的確定性，隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠通過該設施行駛的數量。就目前情況而言，我認為透過收費框架和 VRX 投資的結合，我們已經取得了相當大的成就。

Next question comes from Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Corinne Blanchard。

Maybe could you talk about the Phase III. So you said you completed the construction of the Texas facility. Can you walk us through, again the timing expected there? Is there any remaining CapEx, and how much?

也許你能談談第三階段。你說你完成了德州工廠的建設。您能否再次向我們介紹一下預計的時間？是否還有剩餘資本支出以及多少？

Yes. Corinne, it's Ryan. I'll take that. Sort of following on my answer to Carlos. As it relates to Stage III in the Fort Worth facility, the building itself and a lot of the support infrastructure that has been completed and is in service, but we continue to bring significant capital equipment into that building. And continue to fit out the factory to meet both our magnet production target date at the end of 2025. And as well as the in-service of precursor products, metal and alloy ahead of that. And so some of my commentary earlier was in regard to our expectation for producing metal at the DFW facility later this year, and that would drive certain customer prepayments based on our success in those initiatives. So certainly, there is still more capital to go on that -- on the plant. But as it relates to 2024, from a cash flow perspective, assuming we continue to execute, I think a really important thing here is sort of the balanced cash flow impact of the investment in Stage III versus the prepayment for products in Stage III.

是的。科琳娜，我是瑞安。我會接受的。有點像我對卡洛斯的回答。由於它涉及沃斯堡工廠的第三階段，建築物本身以及許多已完工並投入使用的支援基礎設施，但我們繼續將重要的資本設備帶入該建築物。並繼續對工廠進行裝修，以滿足 2025 年底磁鐵生產的目標日期，以及提前投入使用的前驅產品、金屬和合金。因此，我之前的一些評論是關於我們對今年稍後在 DFW 工廠生產金屬的預期，這將根據我們在這些舉措中的成功推動某些客戶預付款。因此，當然，還有更多的資金可以用於建造工廠。但由於它與 2024 年有關，從現金流的角度來看，假設我們繼續執行，我認為這裡真正重要的事情是第三階段投資與第三階段產品預付款的平衡現金流影響。

Okay. So maybe it's a difficult question, and obviously, I was trying to kind of get that answer. You already started to talk a little bit about it. But do you have like a critical pricing level where you have to reconsider Phase III, where you have to reconsider some of the cadence in the volume for Phase II. I think 6 months ago, 9 months ago, we would have thought it would be like around that 50 to 60, where we are now. It seems like, obviously, it's a challenge, but maybe it's not that -- a critical price level. So I'm just trying to better -- which -- at which price levels do you already get into changing the strategy there?

好的。所以也許這是一個很難的問題，顯然，我試圖得到這個答案。你已經開始談論它了。但你是否有一個關鍵的定價水平，你必須重新考慮第三階段，你必須重新考慮第二階段的一些節奏。我認為 6 個月前、9 個月前，我們會認為我們現在的情況是 50 到 60 左右。顯然，這似乎是一個挑戰，但也許不是——關鍵的價格水平。所以我只是想更好地——哪個——在哪個價格水平上你已經開始改變那裡的策略了？

Sure. Well, Corinne, let me -- there's multiple parts to that. Let me take them all. With respect to Stage III, I think we were very careful in how we set up that business going way back to the beginning and making sure I think if you -- on some of our earlier calls, we said it repeatedly that we weren't going to rob Peter to pay Paul. In other words, we were viewing that business as a stand-alone business where we have to earn an attractive return on capital to make that investment. And so as we proceeded with that, we structured initial contracts to make sure that we felt like that was an attractive business. There's no doubt that the playbook around the world has changed with respect to the cost of capital, the overall perception of electrification and the pace of penetration. But what I would tell you on that is that we're talking about a Western world supply chain that basically doesn't exist.

當然。好吧，科琳，讓我——這有多個部分。讓我把它們全部帶走。關於第三階段，我認為我們在如何建立該業務方面非常謹慎，可以追溯到一開始，並確保我認為如果你 - 在我們之前的一些電話中，我們反复說過我們不是去搶彼得來付錢給保羅。換句話說，我們將該業務視為一項獨立的業務，我們必須獲得有吸引力的資本回報才能進行投資。因此，當我們繼續這樣做時，我們建立了初始合同，以確保我們認為這是一項有吸引力的業務。毫無疑問，世界各地的策略在資本成本、電氣化的整體認知和滲透速度方面都發生了變化。但我要告訴你的是，我們正在談論的西方世界供應鏈基本上不存在。

And so going from zero to something is still a very attractive opportunity. To the extent that something changes, we're always flexible and opportunistic and are willing to throw out any playbook at any time if that makes sense. But from everything we see on the ground today, even though the environment is tough, from what we're hearing from customers, there's still a desire for this supply chain to exist. Admittedly, there's just a lot of pain and challenge with -- from a capital and execution standpoint to make all of that happen kind of writ large. With respect to overall other prices, I just want to take you back to -- because I think it's really important, and forgive me, if I say this repeatedly, I know I kind of addressed this earlier, we can't predict commodities prices. Nobody knows. Even the people on the inside, nobody knows. And all you can do is position yourselves you sort of act within the things that you can control.

所以從零到有所成就仍然是一個非常有吸引力的機會。當事情發生變化時，我們總是保持靈活性和機會主義，並且願意在任何有意義的情況下隨時放棄任何策略。但從我們今天所看到的一切來看，儘管環境很艱難，但從客戶那裡聽到的消息來看，仍然希望這條供應鏈存在。誠然，從資本和執行的角度來看，要讓這一切真正發生，存在著許多痛苦和挑戰。關於整體其他價格，我只想帶您回到 - 因為我認為這非常重要，請原諒我，如果我反复這麼說，我知道我之前已經解決過這個問題，我們無法預測商品價格。沒人知道。就連內部人士，也無人知曉。你所能做的就是將自己定位在你可以控制的事物範圍內。

And from the beginning, we set up our balance sheet to make sure that we could survive a variety of environments. And if you look at our business today, just look at our initial concentrate business, we're a low-cost producer to the world. And so as things get uneconomic, of course, they can be uneconomic for a period of time, but they cannot persist that way indefinitely forever. And so what we focus on is being absolutely low cost. And that's why again, we wanted to highlight on the call today, there's a couple of things about our business. We're not standing still in this environment. Upstream 60K is a modest amount of capital to expand our REO output by approximately 50%. And that's incredible. I mean, if you think about -- and again, I get that the pendulum is sort of to the negative today. But if you think about when EVs were as cool as AI is today, right, a few years ago, people perceived the assets of MP before we had done a lot of this work to be worth $10 billion. So now add that by 50%, and that means the new upside is $15 billion without adjusting for inflation over a long period of time.

從一開始，我們就建立了資產負債表，以確保我們能夠在各種環境中生存。如果你看看我們今天的業務，只要看看我們最初的精礦業務，我們就是世界上的低成本生產商。因此，當事情變得不經濟時，當然，它們可能會在一段時間內不經濟，但它們不能無限期地永遠持續下去。因此，我們關注的是絕對低成本。這就是為什麼我們想在今天的電話會議上再次強調，有一些關於我們業務的事情。在這種環境下，我們並沒有停滯不前。上游 60K 資金對於將我們的 REO 產量擴大約 50% 來說是一筆不大的資金。這太不可思議了。我的意思是，如果你再想一想，我會發現今天的鐘擺有點偏向負面。但如果你想想電動車像今天的人工智慧一樣酷的時候，對吧，幾年前，在我們完成大量這項工作之前，人們就認為 MP 的資產價值 100 億美元。現在再加上 50%，這意味著在不考慮長期通膨的情況下，新的上漲空間為 150 億美元。

And so, the point is that these pendulums swing back and forth, all we can do is control the things that we can control and work on executing this. And so -- that's also why, lastly, I just -- the last point is I thought Ryan's comments were really important. With respect to Stage II. We -- the new playbook is we are thinking very thoughtfully about making sure that our Stage II, our refining is ultra low cost. We've made incredible progress in that business, but we have a long way to go. And if prices were at 150 NdPr, we might not care about a few bucks here or a few bucks there of cost. But in this environment, we do. And I do think also that having to fight through and survive in environments like this is what makes for great operations, right?

所以，關鍵是這些鐘擺來回擺動，我們所能做的就是控制我們可以控制的事情並努力執行它。所以 - 這也是為什麼，最後，我只是 - 最後一點是我認為瑞安的評論非常重要。關於第二階段。我們的新策略是，我們正在深思熟慮地考慮確保我們的第二階段，我們的精煉成本超低。我們在這項業務上取得了令人難以置信的進步，但我們還有很長的路要走。如果價格為 150 NdPr，我們可能不會關心這裡幾美元或那裡幾美元的成本。但在這種環境下，我們做到了。我也確實認為，必須在這樣的環境中奮鬥並生存才是偉大行動的秘訣，對吧？

When you have -- when you have no alternative but to get your cost down because you need to survive that's you really do a lot of great work. And we've lived through that, right? If you -- we took control of these assets in '17, and it was hand to mouth for quite some time. We went through a cycle of -- a down cycle and have survived strongly. And so no doubt that this time, we will, and that's how we're thinking about things. We do not spend a lot of time trying to predict prices.

當你因為需要生存而別無選擇，只能降低成本時，你就真的做了很多偉大的工作。我們已經經歷過這些，對吧？如果你——我們在 17 年控制了這些資產，並且在相當長的一段時間內都勉強維持。我們經歷了一個下行週期，並且堅強地生存了下來。毫無疑問，這次我們會的，這就是我們思考問題的方式。我們不會花很多時間來預測價格。

Our next question comes from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

I'd like to ask kind of [higher] question or similar lines of questions in a different way. is there kind of a right level of pricing where you would cycle more through Stage II? And maybe I guess is there a minimum level you would need to run to -- I guess, maybe continue to try to improve sort of debottlenecking yield, overall cost improvements across separation, finishing. Is there like a minimum level? In other words, can you make cost improvements by running a lower rated Stage II, such that if it was a higher price environment, you could really take advantage of -- from that leverage.

我想以不同的方式提出[更高]的問題或類似的問題。有沒有一種合適的定價水平可以讓您在第二階段進行更多的循環？也許我猜你需要達到一個最低水平——我猜，也許繼續嘗試提高某種程度的消除瓶頸產量、分離、精加工方面的總體成本改進。有最低等級之類的嗎？換句話說，您能否透過運行評級較低的第二階段來改善成本，這樣，如果價格環境較高，您就可以真正利用這一槓桿。

Michael, do you want to go ahead?

邁克爾，你想繼續嗎？

This is Michael. Sorry about that. I think just to start off with the last part of that question, we are currently running all circuits at commercial and significant throughput volumes. So we are able at those levels to demonstrate chemistry to demonstrate throughput capability and demonstrate the effectiveness of our processes. So that's not a question. We do run at lower uptime in parts of the Stage II business or all of the Stage II business than we do in the upstream business. As we continue to make improvements in each area of the operation. We will see that cost structure come down and the trade-off that Ryan talked about running through Stage II versus running at more modest volumes and producing more concentrate for sale. We'll see that pendulum also swing. And so we expect -- and I mentioned, starting 2Q, we expect that to become more noticeable. But as we get leach yields in an area or in a position where we're maximizing recovery of NdPr and at the most reagent effective method, we will run more material through leach once it gets that far.

這是麥可.對於那個很抱歉。我想從這個問題的最後一部分開始，我們目前正在以商業和顯著的吞吐量運行所有電路。因此，我們能夠在這些層面上展示化學反應，以展示生產能力並展示我們工藝的有效性。所以這不是一個問題。我們第二階段業務的部分或全部第二階段業務的正常運作時間確實比上游業務短。隨著我們不斷在營運的各個領域進行改進。我們將看到成本結構下降，以及瑞安談到的運行第二階段與以更適度的產量運行和生產更多精礦進行銷售之間的權衡。我們會看到鐘擺也在擺動。所以我們預計——我提到過，從第二季開始，我們預計這種情況會變得更加明顯。但是，當我們在一個區域或一個位置獲得浸出率時，我們可以最大限度地提高 NdPr 的回收率並採用最有效的試劑方法，一旦達到這一點，我們將透過浸出運行更多的材料。

We will have to produce it as a finished product. But we want to make sure that also when we're at that point, we're not losing material through inefficient operations in, for example, purification processes or losing material in product finishing. So all of those things, we want to make sure that we have the process, the integrated process running efficiently before we push through volume and end up losing hard won game in one part of the process.

我們必須將其作為成品生產。但我們希望確保，當我們達到這一點時，我們不會因淨化過程中的低效操作而損失材料，或在產品精加工中損失材料。因此，所有這些事情，我們希望確保我們有一個流程，一個整合的流程，在我們推動產量並最終在流程的某一部分失去來之不易的遊戲之前有效運行。

So we're very confident that we'll do that because we see every day, we see the progress every single day. And we see that the process works. We just also see opportunity to do it better. And in the current pricing environment, the necessity of pushing volume just for volume's sake to repeat what we've already said. That economic trade-off is not [as] (inaudible) a start.

所以我們非常有信心做到這一點，因為我們每天都看到，我們每天都看到進步。我們看到這個過程是有效的。我們也看到了做得更好的機會。在當前的定價環境下，有必要為了銷售而增加銷量，這就是我們已經說過的。這種經濟權衡並不是（聽不清楚）一個開始。

And then on the pricing, like what kind of -- I mean, there was some number of 70 to 90 that may not be attractive, maybe 150. What is the right work -- how do you guys see what the framework where that may make more sense?

然後關於定價，例如什麼樣的——我的意思是，有一些 70 到 90 的數量可能沒有吸引力，也許 150。什麼是正確的工作——你們如何看待可能的框架？更有意義嗎？

Yes, Bill, this is Ryan. I think my (inaudible), maybe I'll start. Mike, feel free to jump in, but my offhand comment on 70 to 90 was not that it was unattractive. It was -- I do not think for many greenfield projects that, that is actually the incentive price. I think there are a lot of hopeful projects out there that think they will be economic at 70 to 90 and likely will not be, which is referring back to Jim's comment. That's exactly what we've seen and probably one of the largest potential additions to supply in the Western world. So that was my comment.

是的，比爾，這是瑞安。我想我的（聽不清楚），也許我會開始。麥克，請隨意插話，但我對 70 到 90 的即興評論並不是說它沒有吸引力。我認為對於許多綠地項目來說，這實際上並不是激勵價格。我認為有很多充滿希望的項目認為它們在 70 到 90 時將是經濟的，但很可能不會，這是指吉姆的評論。這正是我們所看到的，並且可能是西方世界最大的潛在供應增量之一。這就是我的評論。

I think 70 to 90, again, you can do the math on the incremental profit potential of going from selling concentrate to separating the product and selling it as oxide. There is significant incremental profit at 70 and at 90. There's incremental profit at 55. But if we know that the parts of the process that are suboptimized I think what Michael was walking you through is we make the decision every single day, whether to run or not, based on the trade-off of the potential profit we get in our upstream product versus pushing suboptimized product and maybe losing yield or adding an incremental dollar or -- to a variable cost that makes that trade-off not worth it, at these prices just to push volume for volume sake.

我認為從 70 到 90，您可以計算從銷售精礦到分離產品並以氧化物形式銷售的增量利潤潛力。在 70 和 90 時有顯著的增量利潤。在 55 時有增量利潤。但是如果我們知道流程中未優化的部分，我認為邁克爾正在向您介紹的是我們每天都會做出決定，是否運行或不，基於我們在上游產品中獲得的潛在利潤與推動次優化產品之間的權衡，可能會損失產量或增加增量美元，或者- 使這種權衡不值得的可變成本，在這些價格只是為了銷量而推量。

And I just want to add because I referenced it but expand upon it because I know I've probably -- again, like a broken record, have talked about this on a lot of calls, where when we think about global supply and how hard it is to get this stuff online. From a financial analysis perspective, it's sort of very easy to pick an incentive price and then sort of assign a number and expect that people will come online and they can earn an attractive return at that number. The practical reality is, and again, as Ryan just referenced, look at the sort of the biggest source of potential incremental supply that was expected to come online out of Australia has just come out and said massive cost overruns does not necessarily have the capital to complete sort of meeting support because there's -- the reality is that these are really hard things to get online.

我只是想補充一下，因為我引用了它，但對其進行了擴展，因為我知道我可能——再次，就像破紀錄一樣，在很多電話中談到了這一點，當我們考慮全球供應時以及如何努力時就是把這些東西放上網。從財務分析的角度來看，很容易選擇一個激勵價格，然後指定一個數字，並期望人們上網，並能以該數字​​獲得有吸引力的回報。實際的現實是，正如瑞安剛才提到的，看看預計將在澳大利亞上線的潛在增量供應的最大來源剛剛出現，並表示大規模的成本超支並不一定有資本完整的會議支持，因為現實是，這些東西很難在網路上獲得。

And again, that's why I go back to the value of what we have. Again, if you take any amount of medium or long-term view the ability to get this supply online. It's really challenging. That's also why, Upstream 60K was a relevant thing that people should appreciate about what we believe is our ability to bring on incremental supply. But also to be clear, the comment when Ryan was giving those numbers, that was not to suggest that there's not a lot of incremental profit at 70 or 90. That was not the point there is. At these prices here, we are being extra thoughtful because we just want to maximize our cash flow. But we are still working very maniacally to get our cost structure down because we know that the pendulum will ultimately swing. And typically, the cycle seems to be moving faster these days. And so that pendulum may swing back even much more quickly than people think.

這就是為什麼我再次回到我們所擁有的價值的原因。再說一次，如果你有任何中期或長期的觀點，就可以在線獲得這種供應。這真的很有挑戰性。這也是為什麼上游 60K 是相關的事情，人們應該欣賞我們相信我們有能力帶來增量供應的能力。但也要明確的是，瑞安給出這些數字時的評論並不是說 70 或 90 時沒有太多增量利潤。這不是重點。對於這裡的價格，我們考慮得格外周到，因為我們只是想最大化我們的現金流。但我們仍在非常瘋狂地努力降低成本結構，因為我們知道鐘擺最終會擺動。通常情況下，現在這個週期似乎進展得更快。因此，鐘擺的擺動速度可能比人們想像的要快得多。

Yes, that's all well understood. I'd like to ask M&A in a different way, but actually kind of maybe similar to what you're kind of getting at. You mentioned earlier about the stressed assets. Are there actually -- I'm not talking about the rumored M&A, I'm talking about are there other assets out there that may makes sense for you to take on as you think about a long-term potential market or even areas like heavy [rares] as opposed to light as part of your [magnetization] efforts, things like that. I just wondered if that's of interest as maybe assets are at a lower valuation these days.

是的，這一切都很好理解。我想以不同的方式詢問併購，但實際上可能與您的意思類似。您之前提到過壓力資產。實際上有嗎——我不是在談論傳聞中的併購，我是在談論是否有其他資產，當你考慮長期潛在市場，甚至重磅等領域時，這些資產可能對你來說是有意義的。[稀有] 而不是作為你[磁化] 努力的一部分的光，類似的事情。我只是想知道這是否有趣，因為現在資產的估值可能較低。

Yes, absolutely, Bill. I mean that's why we -- it is very important for us to have positioned the company to be able to be offensive at times like now. And we've talked about how our expectation is over a long period of time, we'll be able to pick up a lot of invested dollars at $0.10, if you will. I do think there is typically, when you think about a project, there's typically a disconnect where you have someone who's started it or promoted or whatever, and they think it's going to cost x and they want to get y discount rate. And then what happens -- inevitably happens is it turns out it cost 3x and the discount rate is y plus something. And so there needs to be typically catalysts that cause those two perspectives to converge to something that is sort of doable for all sides.

是的，絕對如此，比爾。我的意思是，這就是為什麼我們——讓公司能夠在像現在這樣的時候具有進攻性，這對我們來說非常重要。我們已經討論過我們的期望是，在很長一段時間內，如果你願意的話，我們將能夠以 0.10 美元的價格獲得大量投資。我確實認為，當你考慮一個項目時，通常會出現一種脫節，即有人啟動了該項目或晉升了該項目，他們認為該項目的成本為 x，但他們希望獲得 y 折扣率。然後會發生什麼——不可避免地會發生的是，它的成本是 3 倍，而折扣率是 y 加一些東西。因此，通常需要有一些催化劑，使這兩種觀點匯聚成對各方都可行的東西。

And times like now are the kinds of times that cause that weather, that caused that to happen. And so that's a long-winded way of saying that we're always looking opportunistically and expect that there will be some opportunities out of this. But again, whatever the investment is, I think the I go to a Upstream 60K, which is from an opportunity standpoint is an enormous home run relative to anything we see out there right now.

像現在這樣的時代正是導致這種天氣、導致這種情況發生的時代。因此，這是一種冗長的說法，我們總是在尋找機會並期望從中會有一些機會。但同樣，無論投資是什麼，我認為我選擇上游 60K，從機會的角度來看，相對於我們現在看到的任何東西來說，這是一個巨大的本壘打。

Our Final question comes from David Sunderland with Bayard.

我們的最後一個問題來自大衛·桑德蘭和貝亞德。

Guys, thanks for the update. Appreciate the time. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the physical expansion that's already been completed for Upstream 60K, maybe any incremental capital that will be spent on that this year and just how we think about volumes ramping up from that over the next 4 years.

夥計們，感謝您的更新。珍惜時間。我只是想知道您是否可以多談談已經完成的上游 60K 的物理擴張，也許今年將花費在這方面的任何增量資本，以及我們如何看待明年的產量增長4年。

Mike, you want to kick us off?

麥克，你想把我們趕走嗎？

That's right. The total amount of capital spend this year will be relatively modest. We have small equipment expansion to our grinding circuit, which we think will help release some additional capacity there and also result in more efficient grinding, which we think will be a key contributor to better flotation recovery. That's the one kind of capital activity that we have ongoing. We have significant other piloting activity, and we're working to execute all of these plans as capital efficiently as possible. As I've said in the past, there's sort of three ways of looking at it. One is sort of optimizations, which are effectively no capital. Others are sort of modest capital investments that we hope have sort of step change improvement and then there's the possibility of some larger investments, which lead to a much bigger potential, the throughput increases over for production. So the one project ongoing now that I think we talked about is in the second category with modest.

這是正確的。今年的資本支出總額將相對溫和。我們對磨礦迴路進行了小型設備擴建，我們認為這將有助於釋放一些額外的產能，並提高磨礦效率，我們認為這將是更好浮選回收率的關鍵因素。這是我們正在進行的一種資本活動。我們還有其他重要的試點活動，我們正在努力盡可能提高資本效率來執行所有這些計劃。正如我過去所說，可以從三個角度來看待它。一種是優化，這實際上是沒有資本的。其他都是適度的資本投資，我們希望能夠實現逐步改進，然後有可能進行一些更大的投資，這會帶來更大的潛力，生產量會增加。因此，我認為我們現在討論的一個正在進行的項目屬於第二類適度的項目。

Modest capital that we hope would be to some degree of step change in that recovery, but we don't have that built into our plans for this year. So we hope to bring it online sometime in the second half of the year.

我們希望適度的資本能夠在某種程度上推動經濟復甦，但我們今年的計畫中並未考慮到這一點。所以我們希望在下半年的某個時候上線。

Thank you all for your questions. That will conclude the Q&A session. I will now turn the conference over to Jim Litinsky for further remarks.

謝謝大家的提問。問答環節到此結束。我現在將把會議轉交給吉姆·利廷斯基進一步發言。

Okay. Well, thank you, everyone. And I just wanted to reiterate that despite what is clearly a tough pricing environment, I think the execution across the board across all stages of our business has been really remarkable. And I have no doubt that we are positioned very well for the coming months and years ahead. So we wish prices were higher, but we won't focus on it. We'll just keep working on the things that we can control and continuing to execute for you all. So we look forward to seeing you next quarter. Thanks, everyone.

好的。嗯，謝謝大家。我只是想重申，儘管定價環境顯然很艱難，但我認為我們業務各個階段的全面執行確實非常出色。我毫不懷疑，我們在未來幾個月和幾年中處於非常有利的位置。所以我們希望價格更高，但我們不會關注它。我們將繼續致力於我們可以控制的事情，並繼續為你們所有人執行。因此，我們期待下個季度見到您。感謝大家。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。