MP Materials Corp (MP) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and thank you for attending the MP Materials Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Head of Investor Relations, Martin Sheehan. Please go ahead.

下午好，感謝您參加 MP Materials 2023 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給東道主投資者關係主管馬丁·希恩 (Martin Sheehan)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the MP Materials Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. With me today from MP Materials are Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer; and Ryan Corbett, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。歡迎參加 MP Materials 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是 MP Materials 的創辦人、董事長兼執行長 Jim Litinsky；麥可‧羅森塔爾，創辦人兼營運長；瑞安‧科貝特 (Ryan Corbett)，財務長。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation, earnings release and in our SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種假設和警告的影響。可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素包含在今天的簡報、收益發布和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's earnings release and the appendix to today's slide presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. Finally, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website.

此外，我們也在本簡報中納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標的調節可以在今天的收益發布和今天幻燈片演示的附錄中找到。我們今天討論中提及的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA。最後，我們的網站上提供了收益發布和幻燈片演示。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim. Jim?

這樣，我就把電話轉給吉姆。吉姆？

Thanks, Martin, and thank you all for joining us today. Let me give you a brief overview of today's call. To begin, I will discuss the third quarter and recent highlights. Ryan will then run through the financials and KPIs, followed by Michael, who will review operational progress. I will then provide some closing commentary before Q&A.

謝謝馬丁，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。讓我向大家簡要介紹一下今天的電話會議。首先，我將討論第三季和最近的亮點。然後，瑞安 (Ryan) 將負責審核財務狀況和關鍵績效指標 (KPI)，邁克爾 (Michael) 將負責審核營運進度。然後我將在問答之前提供一些結束語。

So let's begin on Slide 4. I'm going to start in the middle of the slide with our midstream business. We produced 50 metric tons of on-spec NdPr oxide and commenced shipments. Producing at scale is a massive achievement. Let's put that amount of production in context for a moment.

讓我們從投影片 4 開始。我將從投影片中間開始介紹我們的中游業務。我們生產了 50 噸符合規格的 NdPr 氧化物並開始出貨。大規模生產是一項巨大的成就。讓我們暫時了解一下這個產量。

50 metric tons of NdPr as feedstock can make approximately 100 metric tons of neo magnets, which would power over 100,000 or so EV traction motors. In the U.S., sales of EVs are averaging a little over 100,000 units per month. So being in just the early innings of our production ramp, we are clearly already doing amounts that are significant from an economic security perspective but also with a very long runway for domestic and global growth.

50 噸 NdPr 作為原料可生產約 100 噸稀土磁體，可為超過 10 萬台左右電動車牽引馬達提供動力。在美國，電動車的銷量平均每月略高於 10 萬輛。因此，我們正處於產量提升的早期階段，從經濟安全的角度來看，我們顯然已經做了很多工作，而且為國內和全球成長提供了很長的道路。

We expect to produce multiples of our Q3 output of NdPr in the fourth quarter and expect further step-change improvements in 2024. Michael and the team are maniacally focused on improving reliability, increasing throughput and maintaining our low-cost position. They are making great strides. Michael will expand on this later in the call.

我們預計第四季度的NdPr 產量將是第三季度的數倍，並預計在2024 年將進一步實現階躍式改進。Michael 和團隊瘋狂地專注於提高可靠性、提高產量並保持我們的低成本地位。他們正在取得長足的進步。邁克爾將在稍後的電話會議中詳細闡述這一點。

MP's NdPr will be delivered to customers in the first quarter as either NdPr oxide from Mountain Pass or NdPr metal from Southeast Asia. So our transition from an upstream to midstream or a refined products producer is officially underway. It's an exciting time for us and our customers.

MP 的 NdPr 將於第一季以來自帕斯山的 NdPr 氧化物或來自東南亞的 NdPr 金屬的形式交付給客戶。因此，我們從上游向中游或成品油生產商的轉變正式開始。對於我們和我們的客戶來說，這是一個令人興奮的時刻。

As a reminder and as we have consistently stated, commissioning processing facilities and ramping production is an extremely challenging process with nonlinear results. I have tremendous confidence in our team, though.

謹此提醒，正如我們一直指出的那樣，調試加工設施和提高產量是一個極具挑戰性的過程，會產生非線性結果。不過，我對我們的團隊充滿信心。

Now let me shift back to the left side of the slide in our upstream operations. This was our tenth consecutive quarter with over 10,000 metric tons of REO production in concentrate. Stage I continues to hum along. We must remember that achieving great results in the upstream stage of the business is critical as that is a key driver for the cost structure of the operation.

現在讓我回到上游業務中幻燈片的左側。這是我們連續第十個季度 REO 精礦產量超過 10,000 噸。第一階段繼續嗡嗡作響。我們必須記住，在業務上游階段取得巨大成果至關重要，因為這是營運成本結構的關鍵驅動因素。

I wanted to note that we did not sell all the concentrate we produced this quarter as significant amounts were sent along into our Stage II midstream circuits for refining. We have now completed the line fill of concentrate needed to charge all our downstream production circuits.

我想指出的是，我們並沒有出售本季生產的所有精礦，因為大量精礦被送到我們的第二階段中游循環進行精煉。我們現在已經完成了為所有下游生產迴路充電所需的濃縮液的生產線填充。

The takeaway here is that we are now at the stage where feeding product into the front end of Stage II means that the finished product is going out the back end. Ryan will go into more detail on this later.

這裡的重點是，我們現在正處於將產品送入第二階段前端的階段，這意味著成品將從後端輸出。 Ryan 稍後將對此進行更詳細的介紹。

More importantly, I have some exciting news to share. Many of you have heard me say that the nearest-term highest return on capital and lowest risk source of incremental American rare earth supply would be brownfield improvement and capacity increases in Mountain Pass. Well, our Stage I maximization and expansion efforts are yielding fruit.

更重要的是，我有一些令人興奮的消息要分享。你們中的許多人都聽過我說過，美國稀土供應增量的近期最高資本回報和最低風險來源將是帕斯山棕地改善和產能增加。嗯，我們第一階段的最大化和擴張努力正在取得成果。

Today, we are announcing Upstream 60k, which is our strategy to drive towards the goal of a 50% increase in REO produced within 4 years with modest incremental capital investment. This suggests that we have the potential for enormous enterprise value creation over the next few years. Michael will provide more details.

今天，我們宣布推出 Upstream 60k，這是我們的策略，旨在透過適度的增量資本投資，實現在 4 年內將 REO 產量增加 50% 的目標。這表明我們有潛力在未來幾年創造巨大的企業價值。邁克爾將提供更多細節。

Lastly, on the downstream business, we have officially moved into the office portion of the magnetic factory in Fort Worth. This is remarkable as we only broke ground 18 months ago. Our first major piece of process equipment has been installed in the factory, and we expect a lot more progress in the coming months and throughout 2024.

最後，在下游業務方面，我們已正式搬入沃斯堡磁性工廠的辦公室部分。這是非常了不起的，因為我們 18 個月前才破土動工。我們的第一台主要製程設備已在工廠安裝，我們預計在未來幾個月和整個 2024 年將取得更多進展。

Despite the treacherous macro environment, we believe the commercial landscape provides opportunity to grow our magnetics business. We are making substantial progress towards a high return on capital expansion of this facility, but we expect only to do so if it can be done in a risk-managed way. We are always thinking like owners, and we'll update you on that accordingly.

儘管宏觀環境變幻莫測，我們相信商業環境為我們的磁性業務發展提供了機會。我們正在該設施的資本擴張的高回報方面取得實質進展，但我們期望只有在能夠以風險管理的方式完成的情況下才能做到這一點。我們始終像業主一樣思考，我們會相應地向您通報最新情況。

With that, let me turn it over to Ryan to run through our KPIs and financials. Ryan?

接下來，讓我將其交給 Ryan 查看我們的 KPI 和財務狀況。瑞安？

Thanks, Jim. Let's start the discussion on Slide 6. This slide has a bit of a new look from prior quarters as we've added NdPr production volumes to the far right. As we've talked about in the past, our operating metrics will evolve as we shift from concentrate production and sales to NdPr oxide and metal production and sales. So over time, you will see certain upstream-related metrics fall away, with updated metrics that represent our transition into separated products.

謝謝，吉姆。讓我們開始討論投影片 6。這張投影片與前幾季相比有一些新的外觀，因為我們在最右邊添加了镨镨產量。正如我們過去談到的，隨著我們從精礦生產和銷售轉向 NdPr 氧化物和金屬生產和銷售，我們的營運指標將會不斷發展。因此，隨著時間的推移，您會看到某些與上游相關的指標消失，而更新的指標則代表我們向獨立產品的過渡。

I would also point out that you'll see slightly different revenue headings in our P&L, which will also likely evolve over the coming quarters. What remains clear is the strong production volumes for Q3 on the far left of the slide at 10,766 metric tons is very consistent with both Q2 and last year's Q3 production.

我還想指出，您會在我們的損益表中看到略有不同的收入標題，這也可能在未來幾季發生變化。仍然清楚的是，幻燈片最左側第三季的強勁產量為 10,766 噸，與第二季和去年第三季的產量非常一致。

Sales volumes dropped about 1,499 metric tons compared to Q3 2022 and 1,094 metric tons sequentially. These declines were primarily due to the work-in-process line fills that Jim just mentioned and that we spoke about on prior calls.

與 2022 年第三季相比，銷量減少約 1,499 噸，比上一季減少 1,094 噸。這些下降主要是由於吉姆剛才提到的以及我們在之前的電話中談到的在製品生產線的填充。

As a reminder, operating equipment at each Stage II process circuit as well as intermediate product storage needed to be filled with upstream product. We have now absorbed all of that concentrate into these circuits and transitioned to converting some of that upstream volume into separated products, with 50 metric tons of NdPr oxide produced in the quarter.

需要提醒的是，每個第二階段製程迴路的操作設備以及中間產品儲存都需要填充上游產品。現在，我們已將所有精礦吸收到這些迴路中，並轉而將部分上游產量轉化為分離產品，本季生產了 50 噸 NdPr 氧化物。

As we've also previewed, our transition to separated products comes with a change in the duration of our sales cycle, with a slightly longer time to revenue for separated products than with our concentrate product.

正如我們所預覽的，我們向分離產品的過渡伴隨著銷售週期持續時間的變化，分離產品的創收時間比我們的濃縮產品稍長。

Early NdPr production is primarily being used to build inventory at our tolling partners to begin production of NdPr metal, which is further extending the time to revenue on the products produced this quarter. So this onetime transition is reducing our upstream sales and earnings without yet seeing the benefit of the midstream revenue and earnings, but we will quickly lap this impact as we move into 2024.

早期的镨镨生產主要用於在我們的加工合作夥伴處建立庫存，以開始生產镨镨金屬，這進一步延長了本季度生產的產品實現收入的時間。因此，這項一次性轉型正在減少我們的上游銷售額和利潤，但尚未看到中游收入和利潤的好處，但隨著我們進入 2024 年，我們很快就會消除這種影響。

On realized pricing, highlighted in the middle of the page, you can see what the impact of lower NdPr market pricing had on our realized price of REO in concentrate, down just over 50% year-over-year. Sequentially, pricing declined about 8% to $5,718 per metric ton, a bit better than expectations as pricing stabilized and recovered late in the quarter.

關於頁面中間突出顯示的已實現定價，您可以看到較低的 NdPr 市場定價對我們精礦 REO 的已實現價格的影響，同比下降略高於 50%。隨後，價格下跌約 8% 至每噸 5,718 美元，略好於預期，因為價格在本季末穩定並恢復。

Lastly on this slide, our production cost per metric ton, excluding Stage II-related costs, was essentially flat sequentially at about $1,600. Including Stage II-related costs, the cost per metric ton was a little over $2,000. As you'd expect, we brought on a tremendous amount of incremental maintenance head count that mostly flows through the P&L and makes up a large portion of the $400 per metric ton that is Stage II related.

最後，在這張投影片中，我們每噸的生產成本（不包括第二階段相關成本）基本上持平，約 1,600 美元。包括第二階段相關成本，每噸成本略高於 2,000 美元。正如您所期望的，我們增加了大量的維修人員，這些人員大部分都流經損益表，並構成了與第二階段相關的每噸 400 美元的很大一部分。

With these changes to our operations and with the launch of scale-separated product production, we will evolve our reporting of cost metrics, going forward.

隨著我們營運的這些變化以及規模化產品生產的啟動，我們將不斷改進成本指標的報告。

Moving to Slide 7. On the far left, you can see the combined impact on revenues from the lower realized pricing and our lower sales volumes. In this instance, lower sales volumes of concentrate is counterintuitively positive for us as it means more internal consumption for NdPr production and eventually sales.

轉向幻燈片 7。在最左側，您可以看到較低的實現定價和較低的銷售對收入的綜合影響。在這種情況下，精礦銷量的下降對我們來說是違反直覺的積極因素，因為這意味著镨镨生產和最終銷售的內部消耗更多。

As you can see, with most of the revenue decline driven by lower pricing, we see this flow through to our EBITDA in the quarter. Despite weak pricing and additional Stage II costs without corresponding sales, we reported a still-solid EBITDA margin of 30% in the quarter.

正如您所看到的，由於大部分收入下降是由定價下降造成的，我們認為這將流入本季度的 EBITDA。儘管定價疲軟且第二階段成本增加而沒有相應的銷售額，但我們報告本季的 EBITDA 利潤率仍保持在 30% 的穩定水平。

And moving to the far right, most of the change in adjusted EBITDA flowed through to our adjusted net income and therefore, our adjusted diluted EPS. Positively impacting the comparison was the significant interest income of roughly [$14 million] we are earning on our large cash balance.

轉向最右邊，調整後 EBITDA 的大部分變化都流向了我們調整後的淨利潤，因此也影響了我們調整後的稀釋每股盈餘。對比較有正面影響的是我們從大量現金餘額中賺取的大約[1400萬美元]的巨額利息收入。

I would also point out that despite the challenging pricing environment, as Jim said, Stage I continues to generate a modest amount of free cash flow as our cash from operations in the quarter was roughly $11 million, which includes significant investments in Stage II-related costs and working capital, while our nongrowth CapEx was only $4 million.

我還想指出，儘管定價環境充滿挑戰，正如吉姆所說，第一階段仍繼續產生適量的自由現金流，因為我們本季的營運現金約為1,100 萬美元，其中包括與第二階段相關的大量投資成本和營運資金，而我們的非成長資本支出僅 400 萬美元。

I'll talk about CapEx shortly, but to finish the thought on our P&L, we did see about $6 million of higher start-up costs compared to last year's third quarter, understandably driven by the final push of commissioning of Stage II ahead of production of separated products within the quarter.

我很快就會談論資本支出，但為了完成對損益表的思考，我們確實看到與去年第三季相比，啟動成本增加了約600 萬美元，這是可以理解的，這是由於生產前第二階段調試的最後推動本季內分離產品的數量。

Now that the majority of these assets are achieving commercial production, this line item should start to decline beginning in Q4 as it relates to Mountain Pass, but there will still be some costs related to the start-up of our Fort Worth facility, expected in that line item until commercial production there.

既然這些資產中的大多數已實現商業化生產，該項目應從第四季度開始下降，因為它與帕斯山有關，但仍會產生一些與沃斯堡工廠啟動相關的成本，預計在該行項目直到在那裡進行商業生產。

In addition, depreciation, depletion and amortization increased to just under $17 million in the quarter, in line with our comments from our last earnings call.

此外，本季的折舊、消耗和攤銷增加至略低於 1,700 萬美元，這與我們上次財報電話會議的評論一致。

The year-over-year increase of nearly $15 million was driven by over $350 million of assets put into service over the last 12 months, most of which were related to Stage II and other investments at Mountain Pass. We do expect this will continue to climb as we put more assets into service in the coming quarters, including portions of the Texas magnetic facility.

近 1500 萬美元的同比增長是由過去 12 個月內投入使用的超過 3.5 億美元的資產推動的，其中大部分與帕斯山第二階段和其他投資有關。我們確實預計，隨著我們在未來幾季投入更多資產（包括德州磁性設施的部分設施），這一數字將繼續攀升。

Lastly on P&L, relative to last quarter, our full year expected GAAP tax rate is up a couple of percentage points, which you will see reflected as a slight increase in our year-to-date tax rate. This is partially driven by ongoing updates to our calculations of the 45X production tax credit and its impact to 2023 as well as our ongoing prioritization of minimizing cash taxes in the near and medium term versus optimizing the GAAP rate.

最後，關於損益表，相對於上季度，我們全年預期的 GAAP 稅率上升了幾個百分點，您將看到我們年初至今稅率的小幅上升。這在一定程度上是由於我們對 45 倍生產稅收抵免及其對 2023 年影響的計算的不斷更新，以及我們持續優先考慮在中短期內最大限度地減少現金稅而不是優化 GAAP 稅率。

Similar to last quarter, small updates in the full-year rate had an outsized impact on the current quarter's book tax rate, given the small pretax net loss.

與上季類似，考慮到稅前淨虧損較小，全年稅率的小幅更新對本季的帳面稅率產生了巨大影響。

Turning to the balance sheet. Our cash balance remains very robust at nearly $1.1 billion of gross cash and just under $400 million on a net basis. Total CapEx in the quarter was about $59 million, while growth CapEx was $55 million. We now expect to spend up to $270 million in total CapEx this year, down from the $300 million we were expecting a quarter ago. Growth capital of approximately $250 million primarily consists of Stage III, heavy rare earth separation as well as other investments in Mountain Pass.

轉向資產負債表。我們的現金餘額仍然非常強勁，現金總額接近 11 億美元，淨額略低於 4 億美元。本季總資本支出約為 5,900 萬美元，而成長資本支出為 5,500 萬美元。我們現在預計今年的資本支出總額將高達 2.7 億美元，低於我們一個季度前預期的 3 億美元。約 2.5 億美元的成長資本主要包括第三階段、重稀土分離以及帕斯山的其他投資。

The reduction in our forecast is primarily due to the timing of payments as well as a strong focus on capital efficiency. With Stage II capital spending behind us, our expectations for the overall budget on our other major projects, heavy separations and Stage III remain generally intact with our prior views.

我們預測的下調主要是由於付款時間以及對資本效率的高度關注。隨著第二階段資本支出的結束，我們對其他主要項目、重大分離和第三階段總體預算的預期與我們先前的觀點基本保持不變。

In addition to Upstream 60k, the Stage I expansion goal Jim mentioned, we continue to evaluate other exciting but smaller investment to Mountain Pass and additionally, are evaluating a high return on capital expansion of capacity at our Texas Stage III facility. We expect to put further details on our 2024 capital plans on our Q4 call. But as always, we remain extremely focused on cash-on-cash returns and maintaining our fortress balance sheet.

除了Jim 提到的上游60k 擴建目標之外，我們還將繼續評估對帕斯山的其他令人興奮但規模較小的投資，此外，我們還在評估德州第三階段設施產能資本擴張的高回報率。我們預計將在第四季度電話會議上提供有關 2024 年資本計劃的更多細節。但像往常一樣，我們仍然非常注重現金回報和維持我們的堡壘資產負債表。

Taking a quick look at Q4 for you. Upstream and midstream production volumes will be affected by our typical 1-week plant turnaround. We may sound like a broken record when we talk about how this was our most thorough shutdown to date, but this is especially true this time around with the work performed on all of our Stage I and Stage II circuits and all supporting infrastructure.

為您快速瀏覽 Q4。上游和中游產量將受到我們典型的 1 週工廠週轉時間的影響。當我們談論這是我們迄今為止最徹底的關閉時，我們可能聽起來像是打破了記錄，但這次在我們所有第一階段和第二階段電路以及所有支援基礎設施上進行的工作中尤其如此。

Note that we expect concentrate sales volumes will decline a fair amount quarter-over-quarter as we ramp our NdPr production and consume a greater portion of upstream production internally. But as we stated last quarter, much of our initial output of NdPr oxide is going to Southeast Asia to build inventory at our [Meadow] tolling partners. And therefore, we don't expect material sales volumes from our NdPr production to begin until Q1.

請注意，我們預計精礦銷量將環比大幅下降，因為我們提高了镨镨產量並在內部消耗了更大比例的上游生產。但正如我們上季度所說，我們最初產出的镨镨氧化物的大部分將運往東南亞，在我們的 [Meadow] 加工合作夥伴處建立庫存。因此，我們預期 NdPr 生產的材料銷售量要到第一季才會開始。

Concentrate realized pricing will likely be flat to slightly up sequentially, assuming recent NdPr pricing stability holds in the coming weeks. Importantly, as I stated in my opening, as we get through this transition period of shifting from concentrate sales to NdPr oxide and metal sales and with line of sight to hitting our full production targets, we would expect to see results start to improve off of a likely trough from our transition impact in Q4 as we move through 2024.

假設近期镨镨價格在未來幾週內保持穩定，精礦實現價格可能會持平或小幅上漲。重要的是，正如我在開場白中所說，隨著我們度過從精礦銷售轉向 NdPr 氧化物和金屬銷售的過渡期，並著眼於實現我們的全部生產目標，我們預計業績將開始改善隨著2024 年的到來，第四季的轉型影響可能會出現低谷。

Needless to say, we expect the success of Michael's team will begin to become more evident in the financials as we enter 2024. With that, I'll turn it over to Michael to give you a more detailed update on those successes.

不用說，我們預計，隨著進入 2024 年，邁克爾團隊的成功將開始在財務方面變得更加明顯。接下來，我將把它交給邁克爾，為您提供有關這些成功的更詳細的最新信息。

Thanks, Ryan. Turning to Slide 8, you can see some of our October production waiting to be shipped off-site. It was a solid operational quarter for our upstream business. Concentrate production was down just slightly year-over-year, primarily due to higher unplanned downtime, but both periods were generally within normal ranges. In the quarter, we produced concentrate at a record grade, which gave us an opportunity to experiment with operating at a slightly higher end of the grade-versus-recovery curve.

謝謝，瑞安。轉向幻燈片 8，您可以看到我們 10 月的一些作品正在等待運出現場。對於我們的上游業務來說，這是一個穩健的營運季度。精礦產量同比略有下降，主要是由於計劃外停機時間增加，但這兩個時期總體都在正常範圍內。本季度，我們生產了創紀錄的精礦品位，這使我們有機會嘗試在品位與回收率曲線稍高的一端進行操作。

We also advanced 2 exciting flotation circuit upgrade project that we believe will, over time, drive further improvements in concentrate production. First, we started up a long-awaited [Frost] camera and automated float control system that incorporates both manual parameters and AI to make adjustments to the flotation circuit.

我們還推進了兩個令人興奮的浮選迴路升級項目，我們相信隨著時間的推移，這些項目將推動精礦生產的進一步改進。首先，我們啟動了期待已久的 [Frost] 相機和自動浮動控制系統，該系統結合了手動參數和人工智慧來調整浮選迴路。

Like an experienced set of human eyes, we now have a camera mounted a top each flotation cell. The cameras are collecting data on flotation speed, bubble size and color and probably other things we haven't even thought of. As we learn, the system learns and our team learns how to learn from it. For now, we are still in trial operations, but we expect this trove of data and computer learning to help gradually improve flotation circuit consistency and performance.

就像經驗豐富的人眼一樣，我們現在在每個浮選池頂部安裝了一個攝影機。攝影機正在收集有關漂浮速度、氣泡大小和顏色的數據，以及可能還有其他我們從未想到的數據。當我們學習時，系統會學習，我們的團隊也會學習如何從中學習。目前，我們仍處於試運行階段，但我們希望大量的資料和電腦學習能幫助逐步提高浮選迴路的一致性和效能。

Second, we began construction on a significant enhancement to our grinding circuit. We believe this will unburden our current grinding mill while ensuring more ore is ground to the optimal particle size in [bastnaesite liberation]. Given the enormous disparity we observe in the mineral recovery of different-sized particles, we are optimistic that this will produce a notable recovery uplift after it comes online next year.

其次，我們開始對研磨迴路進行重大改進。我們相信，這將減輕我們現有磨機的負擔，同時確保更多礦石被磨至[氟碳鈰礦釋放]中的最佳粒徑。鑑於我們觀察到不同尺寸顆粒的礦物回收率存在巨大差異，我們樂觀地認為，明年上線後將產生顯著的回收率提升。

The Stage II midstream operations continued to grind out progress day after day. Operations are by no means as smooth and predictable as we would like. But by now, we have worked through the vast majority of the initial mechanical issues and instrumentation challenges that were most disruptive in previous periods. To be sure, quite a few areas for improvement remain.

第二階段中游作業繼續日復一日地取得進展。營運絕不像我們希望的那樣順利和可預測。但到目前為止，我們已經解決了先前時期最具破壞性的絕大多數最初的機械問題和儀器挑戰。可以肯定的是，仍有不少需要改進的地方。

The performance of our separation circuit has largely exceeded our conservative expectations and should continue to improve as our technical and operational teams gain experience. The addition of redundant QC vessels and isolation capability in our NdPr production circuits as part of the Stage II optimization project has increased our resilience to minor process variability and ensured greater first pass on spec capability.

我們的分離迴路的性能在很大程度上超出了我們保守的預期，並且隨著我們的技術和營運團隊累積經驗，應該會繼續改進。作為第二階段優化專案的一部分，在我們的 NdPr 生產迴路中添加冗餘 QC 容器和隔離功能，提高了我們對微小製程變化的適應能力，並確保了更大的首次通過規格能力。

In 3Q, product finishing of NdPr suffered from several premature failures caused by poor construction and workmanship. These held back 3Q production and bottlenecked the circuits upstream, including separations. This has been restored in October, and we are confident that we are over the [hump] of most of these types of issues.

第三季度，NdPr 的產品精加工因施工和工藝不良而出現多次過早失效的情況。這些阻礙了第三季的生產，並成為上游電路的瓶頸，包括分離。該功能已於 10 月恢復，我們相信我們已經克服了大多數此類問題的困難。

As we look to 4Q and beyond, we are increasingly confident in our ability to reach our production targets. With enough operational time now under our belt in most plant areas, we are encountering fewer entirely unexpected problems and now spend most of our time addressing our known pain points.

展望第四季及以後，我們對實現生產目標的能力越來越有信心。現在，我們在大多數工廠區域擁有足夠的運作時間，遇到的完全意想不到的問題越來越少，現在我們將大部分時間都花在解決已知的痛點上。

In the next few quarters, we will continue to focus first on increasing process stability, next on ensuring longer uninterrupted run times and then on increasing plant throughput rate. We believe this approach satisfies our business needs and commercial commitments while we finalize product qualification and testing with our customers and complete the same for tolled metal.

在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將繼續首先專注於提高製程穩定性，其次是確保更長的不間斷運行時間，然後是提高工廠生產率。我們相信這種方法滿足了我們的業務需求和商業承諾，同時我們與客戶一起完成了產品資格和測試，並對來料金屬完成了相同的工作。

I expect several more quarters of hard work and ups and downs before we hit our stride, but we have a more clear line of sight to our production goals and feel optimistic about our progress.

我預計在我們大步前進之前還需要幾個季度的努力工作和坎坷，但我們對生產目標有了更清晰的視線，並對我們的進展感到樂觀。

Once again, I'd like to thank our teams for their hard work. We completed another quarter without a lost time injury and are working unwaveringly through commissioning. I'm really proud of our team's achievements, and I'm confident that we have the technical and operational talent in place to reach our goal.

我要再次感謝我們團隊的辛勤工作。我們又完成了一個季度，沒有發生誤工事故，並且正在堅定不移地進行調試。我對我們團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪，並且相信我們擁有實現我們目標的技術和營運人才。

Before I turn it over, I want to provide a bit more detail on our Upstream 60k expansion strategy. Although we've been heavily focused on Stage II for the past 3 years, we've never lost sight of the high-return opportunity in our upstream business. Over the past several calls, I have described the strategy of building upon our stable Stage I operations by targeting modest growth from operational improvements and certain low-cost projects while pursuing more step-change growth from larger investments.

在開始之前，我想提供有關我們的上游 60k 擴展策略的更多詳細資訊。儘管過去三年我們一直專注於第二階段，但我們從未忽視上游業務的高回報機會。在過去的幾次電話會議中，我描述了在穩定的第一階段營運基礎上建立的策略，目標是透過營運改善和某些低成本項目實現適度成長，同時透過更大的投資追求更多的階躍增長。

Our efforts towards step-change growth have been picking up steam over the past 6 to 12 months. Over the past year, our growing team of metallurgists and technicians has been working in conjunction with our geologists, plant operators and process engineers to expand our understanding of our orebody and flotation performance.

在過去 6 至 12 個月中，我們為實現跨越式成長所做的努力不斷增強。在過去的一年裡，我們不斷成長的冶金學家和技術人員團隊一直與我們的地質學家、工廠操作員和製程工程師合作，以擴大我們對礦體和浮選性能的了解。

They have engaged in extensive R&D and piloting efforts to develop high-return process improvements to our existing concentrator facility while also evaluating more ambitious growth opportunities. I highlighted two of these incremental projects earlier, and I believe there are many more behind those.

他們進行了廣泛的研發和試點工作，以對我們現有的選礦廠進行高回報的工藝改進，同時評估更雄心勃勃的成長機會。我之前強調了其中兩個增量項目，我相信這些項目背後還有更多。

The teams have been working diligently to develop a plan to better utilize the entire Mountain Pass resource. Our site is blessed with a truly world-class orebody. The richness and ease of processing is perhaps second to none. Because of this, the sulfide [clean] deposit has been somewhat taken for granted over the past 70 years of mining.

這些團隊一直在努力製定計劃，以更好地利用整個帕斯山的資源。我們的礦區擁有真正世界級的礦體。加工的豐富性和簡單性也許是首屈一指的。正因如此，在過去 70 年的開採過程中，硫化物[清潔]礦床在某種程度上被認為是理所當然的。

As an example, we have calculated a 2.5% cutoff grade for our resource, while many development projects with much more complicated mineralogy, flow sheets and geographies published reports with cutoff grades below 1%. In fact, for much of Mountain Pass' recent history, the cutoff grade was 5%, which gives a sense of what might have been ignored as uneconomic in the past.

例如，我們計算了資源的邊界品位為 2.5%，而許多礦物學、流程和地理更為複雜的開發項目發布的報告中的邊界品位低於 1%。事實上，在帕斯山近代歷史的大部分時間裡，臨界等級都是 5%，這讓人感覺過去可能被忽視為不經濟。

Over the past 18 months, we have piloted small and commercial-scale equipment with marginal feedbacks from Mountain Pass and also on slipstreams pulled from our flotation plans. While it is early days, we really like what we see. At this point, we have enough real-world pilot data to take the next steps of project development.

在過去的 18 個月中，我們在帕斯山的邊際反饋以及從我們的浮選計劃中提取的滑流上試驗了小型和商業規模的設備。雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們真的很喜歡我們所看到的。至此，我們已經擁有足夠的實際試點資料來進行下一步的專案開發。

Adding it up, we are confident that between reagent optimizations, operational improvements, small-capital projects in our concentrator and the investment in additional beneficiation capability targeted at underutilized resources, in 4 years, we can increase our overall REO produced in concentrate by approximately 50%.

總而言之，我們相信，透過試劑優化、營運改善、選礦廠的小型資本項目以及針對未充分利用資源的額外選礦能力的投資，在 4 年內，我們可以將精礦生產的 REO 總量增加約 50 %。

With that, I will turn it back to Jim.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給吉姆。

Thanks, Michael. Let's wrap up on Slide 9 with this gorgeous picture at Mountain Pass. Please take a moment to enjoy this pretty view of revenue on a mountain landscape.

謝謝，麥可。讓我們用這張在帕斯山拍攝的美麗照片來結束幻燈片 9。請花點時間欣賞這美麗的山地景觀。

As we look around the world though, the picture is not so pretty at all. I think it is fair to say that most of us are seeing things we never expected to see. The sad truth is that nothing can be taken for granted at such a perilous time. With major conflicts in Europe and in the Middle East, it is possible that a third theater or region of war erupts or just that things continue to devolve materially from here. We certainly hope it does not.

然而，當我們環顧世界時，情況卻不那麼美好。我認為可以公平地說，我們大多數人都看到了我們從未預料到的事情。可悲的事實是，在如此危險的時刻，沒有什麼是理所當然的。隨著歐洲和中東發生重大衝突，第三個戰區或地區的戰爭可能會爆發，或者只是事態繼續從這裡開始發生重大變化。我們當然希望事實並非如此。

At MP, we believe that despite her faults, America has been the greatest force for good in the history of the world. We pray that, that continues.

在國會議員，我們相信，儘管有缺點，美國仍然是世界歷史上最偉大的正義力量。我們祈禱這種情況繼續下去。

In our industry, it has been a very difficult year, and that started before the event of October. There are concerns about the pace of electrification and EV adoption. Interest rates moved higher, and Chinese industry and the global industrial economy remained challenged. Specifically, commodities prices and companies levered to the materials for electrification are out of favor right now.

在我們的行業中，這是非常困難的一年，而且是在 10 月事件發生之前就開始的。人們對電氣化和電動車採用的步伐感到擔憂。利率走高，中國工業和全球工業經濟仍面臨挑戰。具體來說，大宗商品價格和利用電氣化材料的公司目前不受歡迎。

But despite near-term turbulence in the market, the long-term secular cycle, we believe, is largely intact and bodes well for the price of our products and the value of our company, which makes our share price at current levels as something we are very surprised to see.

但是，儘管市場近期出現動盪，但我們認為，長期長期週期基本上完好無損，這對我們產品的價格和公司的價值來說是個好兆頭，這使得我們的股價處於當前水平看到都非常驚訝。

And as Michael and I discussed earlier, we've been laying the groundwork for further long-term and high-return-on-capital enterprise value creation at MP. In essence, it is likely that no rare earth project in the Western world would make sense again if you do not think our set of assets demonstrate incredible and asymmetric value from here. In the meantime, recent global events remind us that what we have achieved at MP is important for America. We are proud of that.

正如邁克爾和我之前討論的那樣，我們一直在為 MP 進一步創造長期和高資本回報率的企業價值奠定基礎。從本質上講，如果你不認為我們的資產組合從這裡展現出令人難以置信和不對稱的價值，那麼西方世界的任何稀土項目都可能不再有意義。同時，最近的全球事件提醒我們，我們在國會所取得的成就對美國很重要。我們為此感到自豪。

With that, I will open it up for questions. Operator?

接下來，我將開放提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from the line of Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Matt Summerville 和 D.A.戴維森。

First, obviously, I want to talk about the big announcement you're making regarding Stage I. And I guess I want to understand, as you look out over the next 4 years, is this a linear ramp from 40,000 tons to 60,000 tons?

首先，顯然，我想談談你們在第一階段所做的重大宣布。我想我想了解，當你們展望未來 4 年時，這是從 4 萬噸到 6 萬噸的線性增長嗎？

Do you think about, on a commensurate basis, adding more -- realizing Stage II still ramping, but adding more Stage II capability alongside that? Or maybe that capability is already inherent with the asset base you have on the ground? Maybe if you can just talk through that, to start, that would be helpful.

您是否考慮在相應的基礎上增加更多——實現第二階段仍在加速，但同時增加更多第二階段能力？或者也許這種能力已經是您當地資產基礎所固有的？也許如果你能先談談這個問題，那會很有幫助。

Sure. Matt, it's Ryan. I'll start. And Michael, if there's anything I miss, please jump in. But -- as it relates to Upstream 60k, we don't expect this to be a linear progression to 60,000 tons upstream.

當然。馬特，這是瑞安。我開始吧。邁克爾，如果我有什麼想念的，請補充。但是，由於它與上游 60k 相關，我們預計這不會是線性進展到上游 60,000 噸。

We laid out our over 4-year time frame, given that -- we think there will be incremental upgrades to our current production and our current mill and flotation circuit that will come to pass in the much shorter term. But there will also be the opportunity for step-change that will come a little bit later in that period.

我們制定了超過 4 年的時間框架，因為我們認為我們目前的生產以及當前的磨機和浮選迴路將在更短的時間內進行增量升級。但在此期間稍後也會有發生重大變化的機會。

I think one of the things that's pretty exciting about this is that some of this step-change growth may actually come from, let's call it, alternative sources, if you will, material that we classify right now as waste.

我認為，令人興奮的事情之一是，這種逐步變化的增長中的一部分實際上可能來自，讓我們稱之為替代來源，如果你願意的話，我們現在將其歸類為廢物的材料。

Some are cutoff grade, we actually have had really exciting results from that. Tailings, some of these other opportunities where we expect this to be incredibly value accretive not just because we're growing our upstream production by 50% but also because of the sources of that REO. So we're incredibly excited about that.

有些是截止等級，我們實際上已經從中得到了非常令人興奮的結果。尾礦，其中一些其他機會，我們預計這將帶來難以置信的價值增值，不僅因為我們將上游產量增加了 50%，還因為 REO 的來源。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

I think in terms of your question on the Stage II capacity, what I'd say there is our focus is on delivering the 6,000 tons that we've committed to, first. And so I don't want to make any promises to you about exactly how and when this upstream material may get separated.

我認為，就你關於第二階段產能的問題而言，我想說的是，我們的重點是先交付我們承諾的 6,000 噸產能。因此，我不想向您做出有關上游材料具體如何以及何時分離的任何承諾。

But I think it's safe to say that as we designed the circuit, the downstream circuits, we did incorporate plenty of engineering factors and things of that sort. So we will continue to look at that opportunity to add even incremental value above and beyond what we're talking about with the upstream expansion.

但我認為可以肯定地說，當我們設計電路、下游電路時，我們確實融入了大量的工程因素和類似的東西。因此，我們將繼續尋找機會，在上游擴張之外增加增量價值。

Got it. And then just to Jim's last point, with the stock price where it is, realizing you guys want to maintain a very healthy balance sheet, having said that, does that give you -- does that change the way you're thinking about capital deployment? Obviously, plenty of growth projects on the drawing board here, no doubt about it. But do you think about share repurchase differently, given market conditions?

知道了。然後，就吉姆的最後一點而言，鑑於股價目前的情況，意識到你們想要維持非常健康的資產負債表，話雖如此，這是否會改變您對資本部署的思考方式？顯然，毫無疑問，這裡有大量的成長項目正在醞釀中。但考慮到市場條件，您對股票回購的看法是否有所不同？

Sure. Thanks, Matt. And yes, as I said on the remarks, I think we're very surprised to see the share price where it is. And I think you've generally heard my views with respect to capital allocation on prior calls. But of course, I think it's always worth repeating that we are owner operators. I'm the largest shareholder of the company. You can imagine that we spend every waking moment thinking about allocation of capital and how to create value for all shareholders.

當然。謝謝，馬特。是的，正如我在發言中所說，我認為我們對目前的股價感到非常驚訝。我認為您在先前的電話會議中普遍聽到了我對資本配置的看法。但當然，我認為值得重申的是，我們是業主經營者。我是公司最大的股東。你可以想像，我們醒著的每一刻都在思考資本的配置，以及如何為所有股東創造價值。

What I would say, I think just to sort of put in my kind of terms, what we've announced today with Upstream 60k, if you look at our valuation today, and of course, commodities businesses are volatile, they are cyclical, and let's say hypothetically that you believe this is a cyclical trough valuation, and we're just around $3 billion, okay?

我想說的是，我想用我的話說，我們今天宣布的 Upstream 60k，如果你看看我們今天的估值，當然，大宗商品業務是不穩定的，它們是周期性的，並且假設您認為這是周期性谷底估值，而我們的估值約為30 億美元，好嗎？

What we basically announced today is that with modest incremental capital, we can expand over the next, call it, 4 years, 50% REO, which in theory, means that assuming we do that right, that is just a 50% increase in enterprise value, right? That should be worth $1.5 billion at trough levels. If you assume a normalized value over the last few years, that's probably worth double out or more, several billion.

我們今天基本上宣布的是，只要有適度的增量資本，我們就可以在接下來的4 年裡進行擴張，稱之為50% REO，從理論上講，這意味著假設我們做得正確，那麼企業的規模只會增加50%值，對吧？以穀底水平計算，其價值應為 15 億美元。如果你假設過去幾年的標準化價值，那麼它的價值可能是雙倍或更多，即數十億。

The point is that when we think about our assets, the return on capital is just enormous. If you can invest a modest amount and get many multiples, those are the kinds of investments that we want to make sure that we have the flexibility to make because particularly given the environment that we're in, first and foremost, we must have a fortress balance sheet, that has been sacred to the company from the very beginning, and we've been clear about that. But then from there, we want to make sure that we can do all of the sequencing thoughtfully.

關鍵是，當我們考慮我們的資產時，資本回報率是巨大的。如果你可以投資適度的金額並獲得很多倍數，那麼我們希望確保我們能夠靈活地進行這些投資，因為特別是考慮到我們所處的環境，首先也是最重要的是，我們必須有一個堡壘資產負債表，從一開始就對公司來說是神聖的，我們對此很清楚。但從那時起，我們希望確保我們能夠深思熟慮地進行所有排序。

With that all said, I kind of look at the screen here and scratch my head. And so with that all as a preface, I reserve the right to do anything here. So stay tuned. But again, just what we've announced today is what we believe is going to be some enormous value creation for shareholders.

話雖如此，我看著螢幕，有點撓頭。因此，作為序言，我保留在這裡做任何事情的權利。所以請繼續關注。但同樣，我們今天宣布的內容我們相信將為股東創造巨大的價值。

The next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自勞倫斯·亞歷山大 (Laurence Alexander) 和傑弗里斯 (Jefferies)。

Two questions. First, just to follow on that, can you sort of help narrow down what you mean by incremental or sort of capital required for the expansion, either in terms of the capital you expect to spend or including working capital and also -- or in terms of like payback at some kind of normalized price? Can you just help people sort of frame that?

兩個問題。首先，接下來，您能否幫助縮小您所指的增量或擴張所需的資本的範圍，無論是您期望花費的資本還是包括營運資本，或者也可以是以某種標準化價格獲得類似的回報？你能幫助人們建構這個框架嗎？

Sure. I didn't get a great line on that. Could you repeat that, Laurence? Sorry.

當然。我對此沒有得到很好的答案。你能再說一次嗎，勞倫斯？對不起。

Sure. how much do you expect to spend for the REO expansion?

當然。您預計為 REO 擴建花費多少錢？

At this point, what we expect is sort of order of magnitude, about $200 million. And as we laid out this plan occurring over the next 4 years, I don't expect that spend to be linear either. But I think that probably gives you a sense. We're talking about a 50% expansion in our upstream production. And obviously, you've seen how profitable that business is and can be.

目前，我們的預期是一個數量級，大約 2 億美元。當我們制定未來 4 年的計畫時，我預計支出也不會是線性的。但我認為這可能會給你一種感覺。我們正在討論將上游生產擴大 50%。顯然，您已經看到了該業務的盈利能力和盈利能力。

And so with that level of spend, I think this sort of speaks to exactly what the point that Jim was trying to make a minute ago. And I think it's just important for us to highlight the embedded value of our assets here being able to spend that quantum of capital to grow our business at that scale. It's something we're very excited about.

因此，有了這樣的支出水平，我認為這恰恰說明了吉姆一分鐘前試圖表達的觀點。我認為對我們來說，強調我們資產的內在價值非常重要，因為我們能夠花費大量資本來發展我們的業務。這是我們非常興奮的事情。

And then can you give a little bit of a more granular update for how your thinking has evolved around the cadence or the financial metrics for the magnet business?

然後，您能否更詳細地介紹一下您的想法是如何圍繞磁鐵業務的節奏或財務指標演變的？

Sure. There's really no change in cadence there. The thing that I would highlight is we did mention in our prepared remarks, we're looking very closely at similar -- in a lot of ways to what we laid out in the upstream, a very high return on capital, potential expansion of the downstream business, given the scale that we've gotten by making the initial investment in that facility.

當然。那裡的節奏確實沒有變化。我要強調的是，我們在準備好的發言中確實提到過，我們正在非常密切地關注類似​​的情況——在很多方面與我們在上游的佈局、非常高的資本回報率、潛在的擴張考慮到我們透過對該設施進行初始投資所獲得的規模，下游業務。

We see a lot of interest from customers and a very good opportunity to expand scale there. And so there's really no change in how we think about the go-forward plan or metrics on the Stage III business.

我們看到了客戶的濃厚興趣以及擴大那裡規模的絕佳機會。因此，我們對第三階段業務的前進計劃或指標的看法實際上並沒有改變。

And then just lastly, on the regulatory front, can you just give a quick update on what you're seeing, particularly in the U.S., around sort of any chance of movement on any of the magnet [builds]?

最後，在監管方面，您能否快速介紹您所看到的最新情況，特別是在美國，圍繞任何磁鐵[構建]的任何變化機會？

Sure. Well, we finally have a Speaker of the House, so that's progress. I think we're heading into an election season. And so -- and particularly given what's going on around the world, I'd be -- I think it'd be aggressive to say that we expect anything in the very short term.

當然。好吧，我們終於有了眾議院議長，所以這是進步。我認為我們即將進入選舉季節。因此，特別是考慮到世界各地正在發生的事情，我認為說我們在短期內期待任何事情都是激進的。

What I would say, I would look out for, I think one big area from the magnet standpoint would be there's a bipartisan committee in the House, the Select Committee on China, which has discussed doing something on that front. And so I do think that we will see something on this front.

我想說的是，我會留意，我認為從磁鐵的角度來看，一個重要領域是眾議院有一個兩黨委員會，即中國問題特別委員會，該委員會已經討論了在這方面採取行動的問題。所以我確實認為我們會在這方面看到一些東西。

But again, I mean, you see the -- what's going on in Washington on both sides on all fronts. And so we're certainly not relying on that with respect to the magnet business. But we do think that as something happens, it's a strong possibility that something helpful there gets tacked on.

但我的意思是，你也看到了華盛頓雙方在各條戰線上正在發生的事情。因此，我們在磁鐵業務方面當然不會依賴這一點。但我們確實認為，當某件事發生時，很可能會附加一些有用的東西。

And -- but to get to the part of your question, just kind of adding on to what Ryan was discussing before with the Magnet business, we really -- we understand that we're building a business from scratch there. And the governor is, again, making sure that we are proceeding thoughtfully in a way that is a high return on capital and that we're managing risk with respect to building out that business.

而且 - 但為了回答你的問題，只是補充一下 Ryan 之前與 Magnet 業務討論的內容，我們真的 - 我們知道我們正在那裡從頭開始建立業務。州長再次確保我們以高資本回報率的方式深思熟慮地進行，並確保我們正在管理建立該業務的風險。

And so we aren't just going to kind of go out and aggressively spend. And frankly, even if there were legislation as such, we are going to do things that make economic sense. We're not waiting on government help there, but we want to continue to hit sort of base hits on that front before there's anything much larger. And of course, obviously, what we've got, if you see the scale that we have in Fort Worth today, it's a pretty big start.

因此，我們不會只是出去積極花錢。坦白說，即使有這樣的立法，我們也會做一些具有經濟意義的事情。我們不會等待政府的幫助，但我們希望在發生更大的事情之前繼續在這方面取得一些基礎性的成果。當然，顯然，如果你看到我們今天沃斯堡的規模，那是一個相當大的開始。

The next question is from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

So the question I have is you talked about potentially increasing by multiples the production that you had of NdPr oxide in the fourth quarter. And do you feel -- I think Michael said that you guys feel very comfortable in reaching your guidance for -- your production target for the fourth quarter.

所以我的問題是，您談到了第四季度 NdPr 氧化物產量可能會增加數倍。我認為麥可說過，你們對達到第四季的生產目標感到非常滿意。

I wonder if you can maybe quantify a little bit more this narrowed range of possibilities, just given how important it is the cadence of how you guys ramp up the oxide production? That would be my first question.

我想知道你們是否可以稍微量化一下這種縮小的可能性範圍，只要考慮到你們如何提高氧化物產量的節奏有多重要？這是我的第一個問題。

Thanks, Carlos. We're pretty excited with the progress we're making. I'd be reluctant to give too much clarity on what we expect. But we do expect continued progress in the fourth quarter and even more notable progress into the next year. So we are seeing more stability, more reliability, and we're going to continue to focus on stability, reliability, longer uninterrupted periods of uptime and then focus really on throughput.

謝謝，卡洛斯。我們對所取得的進展感到非常興奮。我不願意對我們的期望給予太多的說明。但我們確實預計第四季度將繼續取得進展，並且明年將取得更顯著的進展。因此，我們看到了更高的穩定性、更高的可靠性，我們將繼續專注於穩定性、可靠性、更長的不間斷正常運行時間，然後真正專注於吞吐量。

Yes. And Carlos, the only thing I'd add there -- it's Ryan. I think importantly, what we're also focused on here is ramping production profitably and sustainably and not just chasing volume at all costs. And so I think Michael and his team have done an incredible job achieving that so far. And so we probably expect to have a few more quarters of ramp before we hit our stride, but we're very, very happy with where we are today.

是的。卡洛斯，我唯一要補充的──是瑞安。我認為重要的是，我們在這裡也關注的是以盈利和可持續的方式提高產量，而不僅僅是不惜一切代價追逐產量。因此，我認為到目前為止，邁克爾和他的團隊已經取得了令人難以置信的成就。因此，在我們大步前進之前，我們可能預計還會有幾個季度的成長，但我們對今天的處境非常非常滿意。

All right. Okay. And I heard you correctly in saying that you expect to have already sales of NdPr oxide and ore metal in the fourth quarter?

好的。好的。我沒聽錯，您預計第四季已經銷售 NdPr 氧化物和礦石金屬？

What we mentioned is expecting the majority of sales, even of the Q3 production, to occur in Q1. So certainly not ruling out Q4 sales. But in thinking about the sales cycle and the timing of that sale cycle that I've laid out in the past, particularly because this initial set of volumes is building up a set of inventory and tolling partners, so this early production is a uniquely slow sales cycle in terms of the transition from concentrate to oxide or metal.

我們提到的是，預計大部分銷售，甚至第三季的生產，都將發生在第一季。所以當然不排除第四季的銷售。但考慮到我過去列出的銷售週期和銷售週期的時間安排，特別是因為最初的一組銷售正在建立一組庫存和收費合作夥伴，所以早期的生產速度特別慢從精礦到氧化物或金屬的過渡的銷售週期。

I don't expect the sales cycle to always be exactly this pace. But I think that's important as you guys look at your models for Q4 and Q1.

我並不期望銷售週期總是如此。但我認為，當你們查看第四季和第一季的模型時，這一點很重要。

All right. Good. And then my last question is on the 200 million, give or take, that you expect to spend in the Upstream 60k project, is this -- how should we think about the cadence or the pace of the disbursements? Is this something that might take -- maybe start next year and accelerate over the next 4 years? Or -- how do you see that disbursement?

好的。好的。然後我的最後一個問題是關於您預計在上游 60k 項目中花費的 2 億美元，無論給予還是接受，是這樣的 - 我們應該如何考慮支付的節奏或速度？這是否可能需要——也許從明年開始，並在未來 4 年內加速？或者—您如何看待這筆支出？

Sure. What I'd say on that front is, I think the exciting thing about this project is there are many different pathways for us to hit that target. And so we've got enough confidence in the initial test work to lay out the strategy. Like I said, a couple of different ways to get there. I'd expect that the outlay may start very modestly next year and then be a bit backloaded as we likely look at those step-changes towards the back portion of that guided 4 years.

當然。在這方面我想說的是，我認為這個計畫令人興奮的事情是我們有很多不同的途徑來實現這個目標。因此，我們對最初的測試工作有足夠的信心來制定策略。就像我說的，有幾種不同的方法可以到達那裡。我預計明年的支出可能會非常溫和，然後會增加，因為我們可能會考慮到指導四年的後半部分的逐步變化。

The next question is from the line of George Gianarikas with Canaccord Genuity.

下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 George Gianarikas。

First, I'd like to ask about the pricing environment. And a couple of few quarters ago, Jim talked about $60 a kilogram kind of being a bottom for NdPr prices globally, just based on profitability of China Inc. It seems to be -- or it seems to be somewhat pressured because we seem to have bounced off that level a couple of times despite a weakening EV market.

首先，我想問一下定價環境。幾個季度前，吉姆談到，僅基於中國公司的盈利能力，每公斤 60 美元是全球 NdPr 價格的底部。這似乎是——或者似乎有點壓力，因為我們似乎有儘管電動汽車市場疲軟，但仍多次從該水平反彈。

So any update on your thinking there? And whether or not we can continue to at least bounce around these levels for the time being before EV sales accelerate?

那麼您的想法有什麼更新嗎？在電動車銷售加速之前，我們是否至少可以暫時繼續在這些水平附近反彈？

Sure. Thank you, George. I always like a question that starts with giving me credit for being [passionate]. So thanks on that. So NdPr is sitting roughly around 70. If you think about the world today versus several months ago, it's correct that we've seen a lot of -- the pricing has pretty much held in.

當然。謝謝你，喬治。我總是喜歡一個以讚揚我[熱情]開頭的問題。謝謝。因此，NdPr 的價格大約在 70 左右。如果你考慮一下當今世界與幾個月前的情況，我們確實看到了很多——價格幾乎保持不變。

But in that time period, if you think about it, we've seen deteriorating trends, whether -- if we look at this quarter, across electrification and whether it was the OEMs themselves, both the new ones and maybe what some would consider legacy ones, the research analysts or some of the semiconductor companies feeding into the supply chain; you've sort of seen this feeling around a slowdown in electrification relative to what people thought.

但在那個時期，如果你想一想，我們已經看到了惡化的趨勢，如果我們看看這個季度，整個電氣化以及原始設備製造商本身，無論是新的還是有些人認為是遺留的其中，研究分析師或一些進入供應鏈的半導體公司；你已經看到了這種電氣化速度相對於人們想像的放緩的感覺。

Simultaneously, you've seen some wind projects canceled, some major wind turbine projects canceled. And so relative to what people thought and actually, though, even with all of that, prices have held in very well. And so I think it does speak to the fact that we are -- we have been bouncing around the bottom because the economics just really require -- I mean there's only so long that parties want to lose money.

同時，一些風電項目被取消，一些大型風力渦輪機項目被取消。因此，相對於人們的想法和實際情況，儘管如此，價格仍然保持得很好。所以我認為這確實說明了這樣一個事實：我們一直在底部反彈，因為經濟確實需要——我的意思是，各方想要賠錢的時間只有那麼長。

And so certainly, it makes zero economic sense at these levels for any incremental supply really anywhere in the -- at least in the non-Chinese world, outside of our Upstream 60k, which also makes our Upstream 60k so exciting because we, for very little incremental capital, can create what we believe to be very large long-term enterprise value and have very attractive economics out of the gate.

因此，當然，對於任何地方的增量供應來說，在這些水平上的經濟意義為零——至少在非中國世界，在我們的上游60k 之外，這也使我們的上游60k 如此令人興奮，因為我們，對於非常很少的增量資本，可以創造我們認為非常大的長期企業價值，並且具有非常有吸引力的經濟效益。

And so I think that will -- I think, hopefully, that will prove pression as well that we have positioned ourselves to be able to make these kinds of investments at times like now where you'd have to be crazy to invest in a greenfield sort of elsewhere in the world with prices here relative to, frankly, buying MP stock for sure.

因此，我認為這將——我認為，希望這也將證明我們已經將自己定​​位為能夠在像現在這樣的時候進行此類投資，在這種情況下，你必須瘋狂地投資綠地坦率地說，與世界其他地方的價格相比，這裡的價格肯定是相對於購買MP 股票而言的。

And then lastly, what I would say is just -- as I think about trends, is we can't forget about the reality of October and what has happened this past month in the world. And what I mean by that is, of course, there's going to be global macro impacts, and I think all of us see that.

最後，我想說的是——當我思考趨勢時，我們不能忘記十月的現實以及過去一個月世界上發生的事情。我的意思是，當然，這將會產生全球宏觀影響，我想我們所有人都看到了這一點。

But I think that, that is a further strengthening of the theme. There's a theme that we've talked about on calls over the last couple of years about deglobalization, people starting to think about supply chains and making sure there isn't a single point-of-failure risk. But now I would actually add is another piece of that theme, which is remilitarization along with deglobalization. And I think we see that certainly in, unfortunately, the procurement that must happen around weapons globally.

但我認為，這是對主題的進一步強化。過去幾年我們在電話會議上討論了一個關於去全球化的主題，人們開始思考供應鏈並確保不存在單點故障風險。但現在我實際上要補充這個主題的另一個部分，那就是重新軍事化和去全球化。不幸的是，我認為我們肯定在全球武器採購中看到了這一點。

And so that trend, I think -- and obviously, that's just beginning, but I think you have to think about whether it's robotics, guided missiles, some of these other things that, that actually is going to be a significant source of demand in the coming couple of years. And I think that that's actually a kind of demand that will favor our supply chain for obvious reasons.

因此，我認為這種趨勢 - 顯然，這才剛剛開始，但我認為你必須考慮機器人、導引飛彈以及其他一些東西是否實際上將成為重要的需求來源未來幾年。我認為這實際上是一種有利於我們供應鏈的需求，原因顯而易見。

And then lastly, I probably should have touched on this with respect to electrification and slowing down -- perception of slowing down because the interest rates are higher and there's some weakness.

最後，我可能應該談談關於電氣化和減速的問題——因為利率更高並且存在一些弱點而導致減速的看法。

But you saw a big announcement from Toyota recently about investing more in hybrids. And let's not forget that if we do go into a world where hybrids have higher penetration along the way to electrification, hybrids typically utilize 2/3 of the amount of incremental NdPr that, say, a straight EV would use. And so that's also just bullish for growth relative to just slower penetration.

但您最近看到豐田宣布加大對混合動力車的投資。我們不要忘記，如果我們確實進入了一個混合動力汽車在電氣化過程中具有更高滲透率的世界，那麼混合動力汽車通常會使用增量NdPr 量的2/3，例如純電動車所使用的增量NdPr 量。因此，相對於滲透率放緩而言，這也有利於成長。

So anyway, adding all of that up, what I would say is we're -- certainly, I think that the bottom, I called several months ago, remains intact. I think that the short term, the economy is challenged. I think people are very nervous. So who knows what the next couple of months look like.

所以無論如何，把所有這些加起來，我想說的是，當然，我認為幾個月前我所說的底部仍然完好無損。我認為短期來看，經濟面臨挑戰。我認為人們非常緊張。所以誰知道接下來的幾個月會是什麼樣子。

But all of those trends are very bullish for a year or 2 out, particularly the remilitarization, which is a totally new theme that I think is going to become very powerful in the capital markets in 2024.

但所有這些趨勢在一兩年內都非常樂觀，特別是重新軍事化，這是一個全新的主題，我認為到 2024 年，它將在資本市場上變得非常強大。

Maybe just as a quick follow-up then, can you kind of illuminate us as to what your production cost per kilogram will be as you reach steady-state production for NdPr?

也許只是作為一個快速跟進，您能否向我們介紹一下，當您達到镨镨的穩態生產時，每公斤的生產成本是多少？

Sure. George, it's Ryan. I'll take that one. Certainly, with our initial production this quarter and ramping that as quickly as possible and as profitably as possible, it's a little bit early to home in on exactly what cost per kilogram will be, given where we are right now. What we want to do is see operations at full scale, efficient run rate production before we start making other promises here.

當然。喬治，我是瑞安。我會接受那個。當然，隨著我們本季度的初步產量並儘快提高產量並儘可能提高利潤，考慮到我們目前的狀況，現在確定每公斤的確切成本還為時過早。在我們開始做出其他承諾之前，我們想要做的是看到全面運作、有效率的運作率生產。

What I would say, though, is when we went public, we gave some rough guidelines on our expected cost of production at that point. And as you can imagine, at that point, those numbers were based on an amount of estimate as to exactly how the chemistry would work in the [plan]. And so I think what I've talked about in prior calls is we see there, we're very, very pleased with. So we think our assumptions there will prove correct or conservative.

不過，我想說的是，當我們上市時，我們就當時的預期生產成本給了一些粗略的指導方針。正如你可以想像的那樣，在這一點上，這些數字是基於對化學反應在[計劃]中如何發揮作用的大量估計。所以我認為我在之前的電話中談到的是我們看到那裡，我們非常非常滿意。因此，我們認為我們的假設將被證明是正確的或保守的。

The other thing to keep in mind, though, is Stage II, in particular, on a variable cost basis, is heavily dependent on commodity reagents. And those have seen pretty significant price increases, as has labor and energy. And so our hope is that as we get up and running and add scale and efficiency that those eventually offset each other, but it's a little bit early days to give more definitive information at this point.

但要記住的另一件事是，特別是在可變成本的基礎上，第二階段嚴重依賴商品試劑。這些產品的價格大幅上漲，勞動力和能源也是如此。因此，我們希望，隨著我們啟動並運行並增加規模和效率，這些最終會相互抵消，但目前提供更明確的資訊還為時過早。

However, I close by saying with everything that we've seen to date, we remain confident in our ability to maintain our position as a low-cost producer in this industry.

然而，我最後要說的是，根據我們迄今為止所看到的一切，我們仍然對維持我們作為該行業低成本生產商的地位的能力充滿信心。

The next question is from the line of Abhishek Sinha with Northland Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Abhishek Sinha。

This is [Carlos] on behalf of Abhishek Sinha. So we saw the recent news on Malaysia's export bar of rare earths, and we just wanted to know what your outlook is on that and if you sort of want to ramp up production, based on that supply squeeze?

我是[卡洛斯]，代表阿布舍克·辛哈 (Abhishek Sinha)。因此，我們看到了最近有關馬來西亞稀土出口棒的消息，我們只是想知道您對此的前景如何，以及您是否想在供應緊張的情況下提高產量？

Well, the Malaysia news, I think, just had to do -- I think there were a lot of headlines. I think actually, the Malaysia news had to do with the Malaysian government wanting to capture more of the value chain. Aside from just sending some material, they wanted to kind of have actually more industry.

嗯，我認為馬來西亞的新聞不得不做——我認為有很多頭條新聞。我認為實際上，馬來西亞的新聞與馬來西亞政府想要佔領更多價值鏈有關。除了發送一些材料之外，他們還希望擁有更多的產業。

But obviously, we don't operate in Malaysia. That really doesn't impact how we think about things over state side right now, we're -- so I really see no impact with respect to us from that.

但顯然，我們不在馬來西亞開展業務。這確實不會影響我們現在對州方面事情的看法，所以我真的認為這對我們沒有影響。

Sure. As a follow-up, we just wanted to know what premiums you sort of experience with NdPr oxides over NdPr ore?

當然。作為後續，我們只是想知道您對 NdPr 氧化物相對於 NdPr 礦石的溢價有多少？

I'm sorry, can you repeat that?

抱歉，您能再說一次嗎？

We are curious to know what premium you experience for NdPr oxides over NdPr ore.

我們很想知道您對 NdPr 氧化物相對於 NdPr 礦石的溢價有多少。

Got it. Yes. I assume you're talking about sort of the bridge from concentrate to oxide. I think the way we think about the uplift in moving to separation is it's not just a focus on the price and the revenue side. The focus for us, obviously, is on incremental margin dollars. And so obviously, both con and oxide are quoted in the market. And so you guys can kind of do the math there.

知道了。是的。我想你正在談論從精礦到氧化物的某種橋樑。我認為我們對轉向分離的提升的思考方式不僅僅是關注價格和收入方面。顯然，我們的重點是增量保證金。顯然，Con 和 Oxide 都有市場報價。所以你們可以在那裡做數學計算。

But as we ramp the plant and get what we expect to be a fairly insisting cost of production once we hit target levels, the amount of NdPr in our con is about 15.7%, and so you can sort of do the math there on expected cost of production for the oxide versus con.

但是，當我們提高工廠產量並達到我們預期的相當高的生產成本時，一旦達到目標水平，我們的 con 中 NdPr 的含量約為 15.7%，因此您可以根據預期成本進行數學計算氧化物與con 的產量。

But putting that all together, we're very pleased with what we expect to be a nice uplift in both revenue and profit dollars as we move to separation.

但總而言之，我們對隨著我們轉向分離而實現的收入和利潤的大幅提升感到非常滿意。

The next question is from the line of Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Corinne Blanchard。

Could you maybe talk about the shipment time and delivery time for the NdPr oxide and the timing of when revenue would get recognized for the shipment?

您能否談談 NdPr 氧化物的出貨時間和交貨時間，以及出貨確認收入的時間？

Sure. Corinne, it's Ryan. I'll take that. I'd refer you back to our comments in the last call and what we talked about a little bit earlier, which is that these initial shipments of oxide, particularly the Q3 production as well as early Q4 production, we are prioritizing building an inventory level in the tolling channel. In order for tolling to start in earnest, there needs to be a visibility to consistent inventory on site to get the electrowinning process started and running efficiently.

當然。科琳娜，我是瑞安。我會接受的。我想請您回顧一下我們在上次電話會議中的評論以及我們之前討論過的內容，即這些最初的氧化物出貨量，特別是第三季度的生產以及第四季度早期的生產，我們正在優先考慮建立庫存水準在收費通道內。為了真正開始收費，需要了解現場庫存的一致性，以啟動電解沉積過程並有效運作。

And so what that causes for us is given the fact that we maintain title of the oxide all the way through the production of metal, it really just slows the recognition of revenue because we will sell it for our purposes once it has turned into metal and at the port or location of delivery after being converted. And so that's why we've said for these Q3 shipments and Q4 shipments, early Q4 shipments, we don't expect to see much impact until Q1.

因此，這對我們造成的原因是，我們在金屬生產的整個過程中都保留了氧化物的所有權，這實際上只會減慢收入的確認，因為一旦它變成金屬，我們就會出於我們的目的而出售它，並且轉換後在交貨港口或地點。這就是為什麼我們說對於第三季的出貨量和第四季的出貨量，第四季早期的出貨量，我們預計在第一季之前不會看到太大的影響。

You can expect -- certainly, our intention is to also sell oxide as oxide. And so there are a variety of different contracting structures we have. Some are a little bit shorter term, some are longer term. But this transition as we go from effectively selling 100% of our con to consuming a significant amount of our con and then needing to get through this initial filling of the channel is what's driving this change.

您可以期待 - 當然，我們的目的是將氧化物作為氧化物出售。因此，我們有各種不同的合約結構。有些是短期的，有些是長期的。但是，當我們從有效地銷售 100% 的騙局到消耗大量的騙局，然後需要完成管道的初始填充時，這種轉變是推動這一變化的原因。

And so if you think about why it takes as long as it does -- I'll just give you sort of a rough walk. If you think about getting it to port from Mountain Pass could spend a week at port, it's probably about 3 weeks at sea, and then it needs to get converted if we're talking about metals, so that could take up to a month. And then we got to get it to the customer. So that's 2 to 2.5 months.

因此，如果你想一想為什麼需要這麼長時間——我只會給你粗略地介紹一下。如果您考慮將其從帕斯山運送到港口，可能需要在港口待一周，可能在海上待大約三週，然後如果我們談論的是金屬，則需要進行轉換，因此可能需要長達一個月的時間。然後我們必須把它交給客戶。也就是 2 到 2.5 個月。

Once we fill that channel though, that impact for us gets lapped very quickly. So that's what's occurring in the background right now, and we look forward to getting that channel filled, so we can start showing you some oxide and metal revenue in the P&L.

然而，一旦我們填補了這個管道，對我們的影響很快就會消失。這就是現在正在發生的情況，我們期待填充該通道，這樣我們就可以開始向您展示損益表中的一些氧化物和金屬收入。

All right. And then maybe as a follow-up on the expansion. And maybe you touched on this before, I apologize if you did, but where do you think you would be placing the volume? Meaning, like, how does that fit, that expansion, with the demand?

好的。然後也許作為擴展的後續。也許您之前談過這一點，如果您這樣做了，我很抱歉，但是您認為您會將捲放在哪裡？意思是，擴張與需求如何契合？

I apologize, Corinne. Can you ask that again?

我很抱歉，科琳娜。你能再問一次嗎？

Yes. For the expansion that you were talking about, like 50% expansion by -- over the next 4 years, just wondering, what's the capacity of the market to absorb those additional volumes? So just high level, like how do you view this?

是的。對於您所說的擴張，例如在未來 4 年內擴張 50%，我只是想知道，市場吸收這些額外交易量的能力有多大？所以只是高水平，比如你如何看待這個？

Sure. Yes. Sorry. We were just having a little trouble hearing you first, but I think you're asking about the expansion and where we expect to sell those volumes.

當然。是的。對不起。我們只是在第一次聽到您的聲音時遇到了一些麻煩，但我認為您正在詢問資料片以及我們預計在哪裡銷售這些卷。

I think the important thing to keep in mind is as we transition to selling oxide and metal from concentrate, those volumes that over 40,000 tons of production that we are making today, historically, has been sold primarily into the Chinese market and no longer will be as a con product. And so there is absolutely separation capacity for an additional 20,000 tons, we have no concern about that.

我認為要記住的重要一點是，當我們過渡到銷售精礦中的氧化物和金屬時，我們今天生產的 40,000 多噸產量歷史上主要銷往中國市場，並且將不再銷售。作為一個騙局產品。所以絕對有額外2萬噸的分離能力，我們對此不擔心。

And then we're also pretty pleased with what we've seen in terms of development of various ex-China sources. And so we feel very good about the ability to place that volume. And just given all the dynamics that Jim touched on, given the time frame that we're talking about, we feel very good about bringing that incremental volume to bear into the market.

我們對中國以外的各種資源的發展也感到非常滿意。因此，我們對放置該體積的能力感到非常滿意。考慮到吉姆談到的所有動態，考慮到我們正在討論的時間框架，我們對將增量引入市場感到非常滿意。

The next question is from the line of Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

I wanted to come back to the market that Jim was describing as related to the question around pricing. So you -- yes, clearly, EVs and wind is challenged, but I think you've also kind of seen some challenges in -- even in kind of the more traditional uses, which I think accounts to, like you talked about, 75%.

我想回到吉姆所描述的與定價問題相關的市場。所以你——是的，顯然，電動車和風能受到了挑戰，但我認為你也看到了一些挑戰——即使是在更傳統的用途中，我認為正如你所說，75 %。

So assuming that's still weak too, where do you see pricing being held up? Do you see pockets of supply coming offline? And then I guess, looking ahead, your peer's recent permanent [expansion] in Malaysia, do you think that could lend -- or lead to further supply discipline for China as they think about first-half '24 quotas?

因此，假設價格仍然疲軟，您認為價格在哪裡受到阻礙？您是否看到部分供應中斷？然後我想，展望未來，您的同行最近在馬來西亞的永久[擴張]，您認為這可能會提供貸款 - 或者導致中國在考慮 24 年上半年配額時進一步實行供應紀律？

Well, as far as quotas, I would tell you that it's always difficult to read the tea leaves in China. We try to do our best, but I don't have a view on that for next year. I do think -- I've said historically that -- and I think that their behavior has followed this, but if you think about the evolution of the electrification world, specifically EVs, and you see there was a big BYD price cut announced in some markets just -- I think it was today or maybe it was yesterday.

嗯，就配額而言，我會告訴你，在中國讀茶葉總是很困難。我們盡力做到最好，但我對明年沒有什麼看法。我確實認為——我在歷史上說過——而且我認為他們的行為也遵循了這一點，但如果你考慮一下電氣化世界，特別是電動汽車的發展，你會發現比亞迪宣布了大幅降價。有些市場只是——我認為是今天，也許是昨天。

But with the Chinese having moved downstream, I think that you are seeing a transition -- a strategic transition to focus on making sure that there is supply growth to feed their downstream industry, but not enough supply growth to subsidize the western competitors. And so I do think that, that speaks to, again, sort of continued discipline. But for discipline around, they will make sure that there is a reasonable amount of supply for their own producers, and those producers are growing quite substantially.

但隨著中國人向下游轉移，我認為你正在看到一種轉變——一種策略轉變，重點是確保供應成長來滿足下游產業的需求，但供應成長不足以補貼西方競爭對手。所以我確實認為，這再次說明了持續的紀律。但為了遵守紀律，他們將確保自己的生產商有合理的供應量，而這些生產商正在大幅成長。

As far as -- and hopefully, this -- it's a great question, Bill. I think as far pricing now with all of these headwinds, I view that -- and you have to take this with a grain of salt because I run a rare earth company, but I view that as very bullish in the shocks that this market has absorbed this year when we think about the vast majority of demand still being the straight [GDP] industries that have been severely impacted in China and when we think about the slowdown in recent months with EVs and the wind turbine projects canceled.

就——希望如此——這是一個很好的問題，比爾。我認為，就目前所有這些不利因素的定價而言，我認為，你必須對此持保留態度，因為我經營一家稀土公司，但我認為，在這個市場所面臨的衝擊中，這一點非常樂觀當我們考慮到絕大多數需求仍然是在中國受到嚴重影響的直接[GDP]行業，以及當我們考慮到近幾個月電動車和風力渦輪機項目取消導致的經濟放緩時，今年的吸收量就被吸收了。

And so I think, though, it does speak to the reason -- you asked me what the reason is, and I think the reason is the math, right? There is a lot of demand for this stuff. And supply meets demand somewhere. There's demand destruction when prices get too high, but then there's also more demand when prices go lower. And those meet -- those curves meet.

所以我認為，它確實說明了原因——你問我原因是什麼，我認為原因是數學，對吧？這個東西的需求很大。供應在某個地方滿足了需求。當價格過高時，需求會受到破壞，但當價格下降時，需求也會增加。這些曲線相交——這些曲線相交。

And so I meant what I said when I think that there's -- down here in the 60s and the 70s, it's just really difficult. You certainly -- at these prices in the 70s, I frankly don't think -- if I were looking out certainly anywhere in the world outside of China, and then China has its own realities, but anywhere in the world, I think you'd have to be crazy to be an investor in a rare earth project, a greenfield, unless NdPr prices were at least 120, 140, substantially higher from here, if you want any kind of reasonable return on your capital for the risk and the time.

所以，當我認為在 60 年代和 70 年代，這真的很困難時，我所說的就是這個意思。當然，以 70 年代的價格，我坦率地認為，如果我在中國以外的世界任何地方尋找，那麼中國有自己的現實，但在世界任何地方，我認為你如果你想在風險和成本方面獲得合理的資本回報，那麼成為一個稀土項目、一個綠地項目的投資者就一定是瘋狂的，除非NdPr 價格至少為120、140，比這裡高得多。時間。

And so to me, that just speaks to -- there's just going to be Western world supply constraint, and it speaks to the economics down here. And so I do think, again, we're kind of bouncing along this bottom. I don't know if it lasts another month, another year or 2, but those are my general thoughts around kind of medium- and longer-term tailwinds.

所以對我來說，這說明西方世界的供應將會受到限制，也說明了這裡的經濟狀況。所以我確實認為，我們再次沿著這個底部反彈。我不知道它是否會持續一個月、一年或兩年，但這些是我對中長期有利因素的整體想法。

I wanted to ask about Stage III with my second question. So I guess, how should we think about the [OEM's] progress on the construction and equipment setup? I may have missed it, but are you still expecting to begin alloy production by the year-end this year? And I guess, what are the key sort of milestones we should be looking out for with Stage III?

我想透過第二個問題詢問第三階段。所以我想，我們應該如何看待[OEM]在施工和設備設置方面的進展？我可能錯過了，但你們還預計今年底開始合金生產嗎？我想，我們應該在第三階段關注哪些關鍵里程碑？

Yes. No, great question. So things are going really well in Stage III. We've made a lot of progress. One point of note for those who don't know, there's -- the big pieces of -- when you take oxide, the big pieces that get to a magnet are metal, alloy and then magnet.

是的。不，很好的問題。所以第三階段的進展非常順利。我們已經取得了很大的進步。對於那些不知道的人來說，有一點值得注意，當你使用氧化物時，到達磁鐵的大塊是金屬、合金，然後是磁鐵。

And actually, in working with our primary customer and other discussions, we actually shift the focus to metal, internally produced metal, because that's really more of a salable broader product. And actually, we are making, in pilot scale, metal today. So that is a big achievement for the Stage III team. So we are on track.

實際上，在與我們的主要客戶合作和其他討論中，我們實際上將重點轉移到金屬，內部生產的金屬，因為這實際上是一種更暢銷的更廣泛的產品。事實上，我們今天正在中試規模生產金屬。所以這對第三階段團隊來說是一個巨大的成就。所以我們步入正軌。

And then certainly, with respect to alloy, that's never sort of a long-term business. The goal is magnetics, right? The goal is to make magnet. Metal and alloy are just intermediate products that are nice. It's nice to get revenue to satisfy customers and broaden the market of people who can receive things. But the goal is -- or magnets.

當然，就合金而言，這絕不是一項長期業務。目標是磁力，對嗎？目標是製造磁鐵。金屬和合金只是很好的中間產品。獲得收入來滿足客戶並拓寬可以接收東西的人的市場是件好事。但目標是——或者磁鐵。

On that front, our magnetics team is about 60 people. We just moved into that. As we said earlier, we moved into the building. We have a -- and it's really an incredible site because what we've done is we've set up the research and engineering to really be connected to the factory. And so we're just going to have a lot of great interaction between our research, our engineering and the operators. And so that all is happening.

在這方面，我們的磁性團隊約有 60 人。我們剛剛搬進去。正如我們之前所說，我們搬進了大樓。我們有一個——這確實是一個令人難以置信的網站，因為我們所做的是我們已經建立了真正與工廠連接的研究和工程。因此，我們的研究、工程和操作員之間將進行大量的互動。一切都在發生。

It's going to take us a while, obviously, to be producing magnets and to be doing it at scale. But I am very pleased with how that's been developing. And of course, with the caveat that with anything we do, particularly in building a business from scratch, these are painstaking things, and we want to make sure, particularly because it's our capital risk, that we're doing things methodically and thoughtfully. And it's going well.

顯然，我們需要一段時間才能生產磁鐵並大規模生產。但我對事情的發展感到非常滿意。當然，需要注意的是，我們所做的任何事情，特別是從頭開始建立業務，都是艱苦的事情，我們希望確保，特別是因為這是我們的資本風險，我們正在有條不紊、深思熟慮地做事。一切進展順利。

The next question is from the line of Lawson Winder with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的勞森溫德 (Lawson Winder)。

I wanted to ask about heavy separation, and I'm hoping you'll be prepared to provide a little bit more specificity around the heavy separation project. I wanted to be clear, is this designed to process only ore from Mountain Pass? Or is the idea that it will take both Mountain Pass and third-party ore?

我想詢問有關重分離的問題，希望您能準備好提供更多有關重分離項目的具體資訊。我想弄清楚，這是否只用於加工來自帕斯山的礦石？或者說它會同時取得帕斯山和第三方礦石？

And then to get a little bit more to the specifics, when do you expect the expansion to be complete? How long do you expect it to ramp up? What would be the main products? And what's the [expected] CapEx?

然後再詳細說明一下，您預計資料片何時完成？您預計它會持續多久？主要產品是什麼？ [預期] 資本支出是多少？

This is Michael, I'll start with that one. First of all, we're very pleased to be producing high-quality [SDG plus], the key feedstock for our heavier separation facility. But the facility is designed to accommodate third-party feedstocks as well. Perhaps even a majority of the feedstock would be expected to come from third-party feedstocks.

這是邁克爾，我將從他開始。首先，我們非常高興能夠生產高品質的 [SDG plus]，這是我們較重分離設施的關鍵原料。但該設施的設計也可以容納第三方原料。也許甚至大部分原料都將來自第三方原料。

In terms of the progress, the engineering work is advancing through detailed engineering. Certain separation equipment is on site and a lot more is on its way.

從進展情況來看，工程工作正在透過詳細工程推進。現場已有一些分離設備，還有更多設備正在運送途中。

Continuing a theme from earlier in the call from a procurement and build-out standpoint, we're committed to delivering the project in scale and flexible capacity in the most capital-efficient way possible. So we're really looking at that very, very carefully. Yes, we believe we're very well positioned to deliver the project more efficiently and more quickly than any other projects outside of China.

從採購和擴建的角度來看，我們延續了先前電話會議的主題，致力於以最高效的資本效率方式大規模交付專案和靈活的產能。所以我們真的非常非常仔細地研究這個問題。是的，我們相信我們有能力比中國以外的任何其他項目更有效率、更快速地交付該專案。

Yes. Lawson, and I would just going to add, we mentioned this on the last call, but when you think about -- I think this is just relevant so you can sort of understand thought process here. But if we go back to 2022, the DoD actually made awards to both MP and Lynas. And then there was a substantial follow-on award earlier this year, and we made clear on the last call that we had requested a level playing field and had every expectation that DoD was going to continue to support our project.

是的。勞森，我想補充一點，我們在上次通話中提到了這一點，但是當你思考時——我認為這只是相關的，所以你可以在這裡理解思維過程。但如果我們回到 2022 年，國防部實際上向 MP 和萊納斯都頒發了獎項。今年早些時候，我們又獲得了一項實質的後續獎勵，我們在最後一次電話會議上明確表示，我們要求提供一個公平的競爭環境，並完全期望國防部將繼續支持我們的計畫。

And so I would just say that the government moves at their own pace, and it's never as quick as we would like. But to reiterate Michael's words, we certainly think we're positioned to be the quickest online.

所以我只想說，政府按照自己的步調行動，而且永遠不會像我們希望的那麼快。但重申麥可的話，我們當然認為我們的定位是最快的線上速度。

And Jim, just to complete the thought that I missed, the priority products are dysprosium and terbium from that, although we'll produce other heavy earths as well. And our biggest priority is to support our Stage III customer and the customers of our [Stage II] business.

吉姆，為了完成我錯過的想法，優先產品是鏑和铽，儘管我們也會生產其他重土。我們的首要任務是支援我們的第三階段客戶和我們的[第二階段]業務的客戶。

Our last question today comes from David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen.

今天我們的最後一個問題來自 David Deckelbaum 和 TD Cowen。

Maybe just to put a pin on everything in this conversation, I'm curious just, Ryan, if you could kind of put bookends, just how we think about capital progression or spending progression in the ensuing year?

也許只是為了明確這次談話中的所有內容，我很好奇，瑞安，你是否可以在書擋上註明，我們如何看待來年的資本進展或支出進展？

You guys highlighted a lot of projects that appear to be of low capital intensity and high return on capital. When we think about the $300 million or so of growth CapEx this year. In the foreseeable future, should we think about that as a peak year of growth capital? And I guess, how much do you see that stepping down in the years ahead?

你們強調了許多資本密集度低、資本報酬率高的項目。當我們考慮今年 3 億美元左右的成長資本支出。在可預見的未來，我們是否應該將其視為成長資本的高峰年？我想，您認為未來幾年這種做法會減少多少？

Sure, David. Yes. So the one thing I would flag, just to highlight one change in our guidance for this year, is I did mention in the prepared remarks, and you'll see it in our filings tomorrow, that we expect to spend $270 million now this year versus the $300 million that we had previously expected. That's primarily from some of the initiatives that Michael talked about, about just trying to be as capital efficient as possible as we progress these projects.

當然，大衛。是的。因此，我要強調的一件事是，為了強調我們今年的指導方針中的一個變化，我在準備好的評論中確實提到過，您將在明天的文件中看到，我們預計今年將花費2.7 億美元與我們先前預期的 3 億美元相比。這主要來自邁克爾談到的一些舉措，即在我們推進這些項目時盡可能提高資本效率。

We obviously have continued to earn a pretty nice return on our cash on our balance sheet. And so we just want to be thoughtful about timing and pacing of capital.

顯然，我們的資產負債表上的現金繼續獲得了相當不錯的回報。因此，我們只想考慮資本的時機和節奏。

You're absolutely right that we talked about a lot of exciting, relatively low capital intensity, high-return projects. It's a little bit early for me to provide multiyear guidance or specific 2024 guidance. We do intend to provide 2024 guidance on next year's earnings -- next quarter's earnings call, excuse me.

你說得對，我們談論了很多令人興奮的、資本密集度相對較低、高回報的項目。對我來說提供多年指導或具體的 2024 年指導還為時過早。我們確實打算提供 2024 年獲利指引——下個季度的獲利電話會議，對不起。

But what I would say is this year's capital plan includes a pretty significant chunk of Stage III CapEx, which is quite a big project. And so I think that's important to think about what a normalized spend profile would look like. We just want to reserve our rights to do other very high return on capital projects, and I spent a lot of time with Michael out on Mountain Pass trying to find those, and there's a pretty long list.

但我想說的是，今年的資本計畫包括相當大一部分第三階段資本支出，這是一個相當大的項目。因此，我認為思考正常化的支出狀況會是什麼樣子很重要。我們只是想保留進行其他資本回報率很高的項目的權利，我和邁克爾在帕斯山花了很多時間試圖找到這些項目，而且有一個很長的清單。

So we will continue to keep you updated on that. But certainly, we are very focused, as Jim laid out in terms of our alignment here, on making this a very-high free cash flowing business. And so we are always stacking up our projects and potential organic projects and making sure they meet a pretty high return threshold.

因此，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況。但當然，正如吉姆在我們的協調方面所闡述的那樣，我們非常專注於使其成為一項非常高的自由現金流業務。因此，我們總是堆積我們的項目和潛在的有機項目，並確保它們滿足相當高的回報門檻。

Ryan. I appreciate that. And I just wanted to confirm, Michael, as you guys think about targeting this expansion to 60,000 tons a year on the upstream side, is it fair to say that you don't necessarily intend to become a concentrate producer or rare earth concentrate producer and distributor that you would be doing this with the visibility of being able to convert that material over time?

瑞安.我很感激。我只是想確認一下，邁克爾，當你們考慮將上游產能擴大到每年 6 萬噸時，公平地說你們不一定打算成為精礦生產商或稀土精礦產商，經銷商，你會這樣做，並能夠隨著時間的推移轉換該材料的可見性？

I think our mission will remain the same, which is to support the ex-China supply chain. And we will look at the most efficient way of achieving that, including optimizing our existing capability at Mountain Pass. But it's certainly several years in the future, and we want to be focused first on ramping up Stage II and developing this Upstream 60k project.

我認為我們的使命將保持不變，那就是支持中國以外的供應鏈。我們將尋找實現這一目標的最有效方法，包括優化我們在帕斯山的現有能力。但肯定是在未來幾年，我們希望首先集中精力加強第二階段並開發這個上游 60k 項目。

That concludes our Q&A session. Thank you, everyone. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Litinsky for final comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。謝謝大家。我現在想將電話轉給利廷斯基先生徵求最後意見。

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us. I know it was a long call, but it was a lot of exciting developments with MP, albeit we are in a tough environment in the global economy and certainly in our sector, but we feel very excited about our business, and we'll keep executing. And so everyone, stay safe. And we'll talk to you all next quarter. Thanks.

好的，謝謝大家加入我們。我知道這是一個漫長的電話，但MP 取得了許多令人興奮的進展，儘管我們在全球經濟中處於艱難的環境，當然在我們的行業中，但我們對我們的業務感到非常興奮，我們將繼續執行。所以大家一定要注意安全。我們將在下個季度與大家討論。謝謝。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。