MP Materials Corp (MP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining today's MP Materials Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. My name is Tia, and I will be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，下午好。感謝您參加今天的 MP Materials 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議和網絡廣播。我叫蒂亞，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Head of Investor Relations, Martin Sheehan. Please proceed.

現在我想將會議交給東道主投資者關係主管馬丁·希恩 (Martin Sheehan)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to MP Materials Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. With me today from MP Materials are Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer; and Ryan Corbett, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。歡迎參加 MP Materials 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是 MP Materials 的創始人、董事長兼首席執行官 Jim Litinsky；邁克爾·羅森塔爾，創始人兼首席運營官；瑞安·科貝特 (Ryan Corbett)，首席財務官。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation, earnings release and in our SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種假設和警告的影響。可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明存在重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示文稿、收益發布和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's earnings release and the appendix to today's slide presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.

此外，我們還在本演示文稿中納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。與最直接可比的公認會計準則財務指標的調節可以在今天的收益發布和今天幻燈片演示的附錄中找到。我們今天討論中提及的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA。

Finally, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website.

最後，我們的網站上提供了收益發布和幻燈片演示。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim. Jim?

這樣，我就把電話轉給吉姆。吉姆？

Thanks, Martin, and thank you all for joining us today. Let me give you a brief overview of today's call. To begin, I will discuss the second quarter and more recent highlights. Ryan will then run through the financials and KPIs, followed by Michael, who will review Stage II progress. I will then provide some closing commentary before Q&A.

謝謝馬丁，也感謝大家今天加入我們。讓我向大家簡要介紹一下今天的電話會議。首先，我將討論第二季度和最近的亮點。然後，瑞安（Ryan）將負責財務和關鍵績效指標（KPI），邁克爾將隨後審查第二階段的進展情況。然後我將在問答之前提供一些結束語。

So let's begin on Slide 4 and jump right to the middle of the slide under Stage II for important and exciting news. We have officially started production of separated rare earths at Mountain Pass. Michael and the team have done an incredible job on Stage II, particularly over the last several months to advance commissioning.

因此，讓我們從幻燈片 4 開始，然後直接跳轉到第二階段幻燈片的中間，了解重要且令人興奮的消息。我們已在帕斯山正式開始生產分離稀土。邁克爾和他的團隊在第二階段做了令人難以置信的工作，特別是在過去幾個月裡推進調試。

Let me be very clear, we still have a lot of work to do to get each circuit to operate reliably and ramp up production volumes, but the chemistry and separations processes are working as expected. We expect to begin shipping separated NdPr oxide to customers, this quarter.

讓我非常明確的是，我們仍然有很多工作要做，才能使每個迴路可靠運行並提高產量，但化學和分離過程正在按預期進行。我們預計本季度開始向客戶運送分離的 NdPr 氧化物。

So with the critical caveat that we must still work relentlessly towards our mission, I want to reiterate that achieving refined rare earth production is a milestone worth accelerating for all of us at MP, our shareholders a's well as everyone in America.

因此，儘管我們必須繼續不懈地努力實現我們的使命，但我想重申，實現精煉稀土生產對於我們 MP 所有人、我們的股東以及美國的每個人來說都是一個值得加速的里程碑。

Moving back to the left of the slide. In the second quarter, we achieved record Stage I production for a quarter, which included a planned maintenance shutdown. In fact, this was our third highest quarterly production volume ever, with the only 2 greater quarters being ones where we did not have a 1-week plan shutdown. This translated into strong financial performance despite difficult pricing comparisons and Ryan will provide more detail on this in a moment. Nonetheless, the team's Stage I execution this quarter was very impressive, especially when we consider all the activity on our site related to Stage II commissioning and those achievements.

返回到幻燈片的左側。第二季度，我們實現了創紀錄的第一階段產量，其中包括計劃內的維護停工。事實上，這是我們有史以來第三高的季度產量，唯一兩個較大的季度是我們沒有實行 1 週計劃停工的季度。儘管定價比較困難，但這轉化為強勁的財務業績，瑞安將立即提供更多細節。儘管如此，該團隊本季度第一階段的執行情況非常令人印象深刻，特別是當我們考慮到我們網站上與第二階段調試和這些成就相關的所有活動時。

Lastly, our Stage III downstream magnetics business continues to advance across many functions. We are now installing some of the first metal and alloy making equipment in our Fort Worth facility. Other key equipment is in transit with the goal to begin installation during the remainder of the year. Fort Worth is going to be the epicenter of magnetics in the Western world. Along with the scale of the metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing, we are establishing a state-of-the-art R&D, piloting and product development area at the facility. Some of this equipment is already in the process of being installed, and we continue to make important hires across the magnetic team. In fact, MP, the company overall just surpassed the 600 employee mark, yet as we add depth and expertise across our sites in Mountain Pass, Dallas, Fort Worth and Las Vegas, we remain maniacally focused on preserving our owner-operator culture.

最後，我們的第三階段下游磁性業務在許多職能方面繼續取得進展。我們現在正在沃斯堡工廠安裝一些第一批金屬和合金製造設備。其他關鍵設備正在運輸中，目標是在今年剩餘時間內開始安裝。沃斯堡將成為西方世界磁學的中心。隨著金屬、合金和磁鐵製造規模的擴大，我們正在該工廠建立最先進的研發、試點和產品開發區域。其中一些設備已經在安裝過程中，我們將繼續在磁性團隊中進行重要的招聘。事實上，MP，公司員工總數剛剛超過600 人大關，但隨著我們在帕斯山、達拉斯、沃斯堡和拉斯維加斯的工廠增加深度和專業知識，我們仍然瘋狂地致力於保護我們的所有者經營文化。

With that, let me turn it over to Ryan. Ryan?

那麼，讓我把它交給瑞安。瑞安？

Thanks, Jim. Turning to Slide 6. As Jim mentioned, Stage I production continued at impressive rates as we produce 10,863 tons of REO in concentrate in the quarter. Modest improvements in uptime ore grade and feed rate combined to drive a 5% increase in production volumes compared to last year. The improved feed grade and feed rate, combined with strong recoveries to produce the second highest plant productivity, which we measure in tons of REO per hour of uptime in our history, demonstrating the steady progress in improving efficiency in the flotation process.

謝謝，吉姆。轉向幻燈片 6。正如 Jim 提到的，第一階段的生產繼續以令人印象深刻的速度增長，本季度我們生產了 10,863 噸 REO 精礦。正常運行時間礦石品位和進料速度的適度改善共同推動產量比去年增加了 5%。改進的進料品位和進料速率，加上強勁的回收率，實現了第二高的工廠生產率（我們以歷史上每小時正常運行時間的REO 噸數來衡量），這表明在提高浮選過程效率方面取得了穩步進展。

Moving to sales volumes. The higher production led to a 3% growth in sold volume reaching 10,271 metric tons in the quarter. This is despite an increasing amount of production being sent through the various Stage II circuits as we commission them.

轉向銷量。產量增加導致本季度銷量增長 3%，達到 10,271 噸。儘管隨著我們的調試，通過各個第二階段賽道發送的作品數量不斷增加，但情況仍然如此。

As a reminder, we expect about 2 weeks of production or a bit under 2,000 metric tons of REO to be absorbed permanently into the downstream circuits as Stage II production ramps. And through June, we have seen about 1/3 of that total consumed. The last 2/3 will likely be consumed and therefore not available for sale, over the next 2 quarters.

提醒一下，隨著第二階段產量的增加，我們預計約 2 週的產量或略低於 2,000 公噸的 REO 將被永久吸收到下游迴路中。到 6 月份，我們已經看到了總消耗量的約 1/3。最後 2/3 可能會在接下來的 2 個季度內被消耗掉，因此無法出售。

Realized pricing in the quarter fell 55% year-over-year, driven by the decline in the price of NdPr, which represents the lion's share of the value of the REOs and concentrate. The decline was slightly better than we thought it would be when we last spoke in May, as NdPr pricing had a modest uptick for part of the quarter. Since then, pricing has again fallen into the low to mid-$60 per kilogram, and as such, right now, we are likely to see a low-teens percentage decline in sequential realized prices in Q3.

由於镨镨價格下跌，該季度的實現定價同比下降了 55%，镨镨在 REO 和精礦價值中佔據最大份額。下降幅度略好於我們上次在 5 月份發表講話時的預期，因為镨镨價格在本季度部分時間小幅上漲。此後，價格再次跌至每公斤 60 美元的中低位，因此，目前我們可能會看到第三季度實現價格環比下降百分之十幾。

And lastly, on the far right, production costs climbed 11% over last year, in part from the growth in our head count as we commission Stage II and prepare it for full operations. And to a lesser extent, we continue to see slight year-over-year growth in materials and supplies cost. One area that has been a real positive is our combined heat and power plant, where we have been able to reduce outside vendor and third-party training costs as our own MP staff has gained clinical experience, driven plant efficiencies and operated with fewer bugs.

最後，在最右邊，生產成本比去年上漲了 11%，部分原因是我們在調試第二階段並為全面運營做好準備時人員數量的增長。在較小程度上，我們繼續看到材料和供應成本同比略有增長。一個真正積極的領域是我們的熱電聯產工廠，我們能夠減少外部供應商和第三方的培訓成本，因為我們自己的 MP 員工獲得了臨床經驗，提高了工廠效率，並且運行時故障更少。

We expect these kinds of successes will come over time with other parts of our Stage II process and as we attain targeted reliability from the operating equipment. As a reminder, as we move to the back half of the year and begin preparing to migrate to Stage II production, some of these Stage I KPIs will sunset, as we evolve our reporting to focus on our transition to separated products and rare earths metal sales.

我們預計，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們從操作設備中獲得目標可靠性，我們第二階段流程的其他部分也會取得這些成功。提醒一下，當我們進入下半年並開始準備遷移到第二階段生產時，其中一些第一階段 KPI 將落下，因為我們將報告重點放在向分離產品和稀土金屬的過渡上銷售量。

Moving to Slide 7. On the far left of the slide, revenue of $64 million declined by 55%, driven by the lower realized pricing we just discussed, as well as a small amount of rare earth fluoride sales in last year's second quarter. And given the nature of our commodity business, the $79.5 million drop in revenue drove a similar decline in adjusted EBITDA to $27 million. The third graphic on the page highlights that tightly managing our cost structure, combined with the low-cost nature of our scaled facility and world-class ore body allowed us to generate a very robust 42% adjusted EBITDA margin particularly when considering recent NdPr market pricing.

轉到幻燈片 7。在幻燈片的最左側，由於我們剛才討論的實現定價較低以及去年第二季度稀土氟化物的少量銷售，收入 6400 萬美元下降了 55%。鑑於我們商品業務的性質，收入下降 7,950 萬美元導致調整後 EBITDA 也出現類似下降，降至 2,700 萬美元。頁面上的第三張圖強調，嚴格管理我們的成本結構，加上我們規模化設施和世界一流礦體的低成本性質，使我們能夠產生非常強勁的42% 調整後EBITDA 利潤率，特別是考慮到最近的镨镨市場定價時。

I would also point out that despite the very weak pricing in the quarter, Stage I continued to generate a modest amount of positive normalized free cash flow when removing our growth CapEx of $53 million in the quarter, and that was with a significant cash tax payment in April.

我還想指出的是，儘管本季度的定價非常疲軟，但在扣除本季度5300 萬美元的增長資本支出後，第一階段仍然產生了少量正的正常化自由現金流，而且還需要繳納大量現金稅在四月份。

Moving to the far right of the slide, our adjusted diluted EPS declined to $0.09 in the quarter, primarily driven by the lower adjusted EBITDA.

移動到幻燈片的最右側，我們的調整後攤薄每股收益在本季度下降至 0.09 美元，這主要是由於調整後 EBITDA 較低。

But three quick comments on some below-the-line items, which had modest impacts on our adjusted EPS. With the current interest rate environment, we continue to put our large cash balance to work for us primarily in short term treasury securities generating over $10 million a quarter in interest income, recognized on the other income line of our income statement.

但對一些線下項目的三點簡短評論對我們調整後的每股收益影響不大。在當前的利率環境下，我們繼續將大量現金餘額主要用於短期國債，每季度產生超過 1000 萬美元的利息收入，並在損益表的其他收入項目中確認。

Second, with us putting over $300 million of assets into service over the last year, we are starting to see our quarterly depreciation expense tick up as we would expect. As such, we would expect a roughly 50% sequential increase in the depreciation, depletion and amortization line item in Q3 with some additional growth in Q4, as we also start putting some of our Stage III assets into service.

其次，隨著我們去年投入使用的資產超過 3 億美元，我們開始看到季度折舊費用如我們預期的那樣增加。因此，我們預計第三季度的折舊、消耗和攤銷項目將環比增長約 50%，第四季度還會有一些額外增長，因為我們也開始將一些第三階段資產投入使用。

And while we are on the related topic of CapEx we continue to expect about $300 million of spend in 2023, having spent about $130 million through June.

雖然我們正在討論資本支出的相關主題，但我們仍然預計 2023 年的支出約為 3 億美元，截至 6 月份的支出約為 1.3 億美元。

And lastly, on the P&L, whereas total income tax expense in the quarter was down year-over-year due to the lower pretax income, our updated expectation for full year effective tax rate increased slightly, which caused an outsized impact on Q2's rate. With additional information and research on how we expect to implement the IRA bills 45x provision, we have upped our full year tax rate for GAAP purposes to the mid-20s.

最後，在損益表上，雖然由於稅前收入較低，本季度所得稅總支出同比下降，但我們對全年有效稅率的最新預期略有上升，這對第二季度的稅率造成了巨大影響。根據我們預期如何實施 IRA 賬單 45 倍規定的更多信息和研究，我們已將 GAAP 的全年稅率提高到 20 多倍。

To be clear, we have not updated our view on the cash benefit to the company, which we expect to be meaningful. But from a GAAP perspective, those benefits to the income statement may be spread over a longer period.

需要明確的是，我們尚未更新對公司現金收益的看法，我們預計這將是有意義的。但從公認會計準則的角度來看，損益表的這些好處可能會分散到更長的時期。

The updated full year tax forecast created a catch-up for the first half, which looked outsized in Q2 given the much lower sequential pretax income. Looking at the whole first half, our effective tax rate was roughly 23%.

更新後的全年稅收預測為上半年帶來了追趕，考慮到稅前收入連續低得多，第二季度的稅收預測看起來過大。從整個上半年來看，我們的有效稅率約為23%。

Before turning it to Michael, I would also remind everyone that when we do begin shipping NdPr oxide, the actual sales cycle is going to be longer depending on where the product is delivered. For example, much of our initial production of NdPr oxide will be converted to metal by tollers in Southeast Asia before being delivered to our end customers. Shipping times alone to Southeast Asia will likely take 3 to 4 weeks, not to mention the needed inventory build at solars facility as well as production and delivery times. As such, we expect NdPr oxide revenue will likely be recognized predominantly in Q1 for the shipments that began starting this quarter.

在向 Michael 提出之前，我還要提醒大家，當我們開始運輸 NdPr 氧化物時，實際銷售週期會更長，具體取決於產品的交付地點。例如，我們最初生產的大部分 NdPr 氧化物將由東南亞的加工商轉化為金屬，然後再交付給我們的最終客戶。僅運往東南亞的運輸時間就可能需要 3 至 4 週，更不用說太陽能工廠所需的庫存建設以及生產和交貨時間。因此，我們預計 NdPr 氧化物收入可能主要在第一季度從本季度開始的出貨量中得到確認。

With that, I'll turn it over to Michael. Michael?

有了這個，我會把它交給邁克爾。邁克爾？

Thanks, Ryan. Turning to Slide 8. Q2 was a very productive and busy quarter for the Mountain Pass operation. Concentrate production and product grade increased modestly year-over-year despite the semiannual plant shutdown. This is partially attributable to less unplanned downtime and is a solid accomplishment considering the very intense cross-training, personnel reallocation and resource sharing challenges presented by the Stage II commissioning.

謝謝，瑞安。轉向幻燈片 8。第二季度對於 Mountain Pass 運營來說是一個非常高效且繁忙的季度。儘管工廠每半年停產一次，但精礦產量和產品品位仍同比小幅增長。這部分歸因於計劃外停機時間減少，考慮到第二階段調試帶來的非常激烈的交叉培訓、人員重新分配和資源共享挑戰，這是一項堅實的成就。

The results also led to some extent, the fruits of continued optimization efforts in metallurgy and operational execution. As a reminder, we expect generally stable Stage I production year-over-year in the short term but hope to achieve periodic step changes in output tied to certain discrete projects in our pipeline.

這一成果也在一定程度上帶來了冶金和運營執行方面持續優化努力的成果。提醒一下，我們預計第一階段的產量在短期內同比總體穩定，但希望與我們管道中的某些離散項目相關的產量能夠實現週期性的階躍變化。

Commissioning activity and breadth accelerated throughout the quarter and into Q3. All Stage II circuits are now in active operation. My previous comments remain valid. Commissioning is a process that demands patience and perseverance with very hard lot steps forward and frustrating setbacks. However, overall, I'm quite encouraged with the progress. Most importantly, we have so far avoided any major health and safety incidents that we cannot become complacent.

整個季度和第三季度的調試活動和廣度都在加速。所有第二階段電路現已投入運行。我之前的評論仍然有效。調試是一個需要耐心和毅力的過程，前進的步伐非常艱難，挫折也令人沮喪。然而，總的來說，我對所取得的進展感到非常鼓舞。最重要的是，到目前為止，我們避免了任何重大的健康和安全事件，我們不能沾沾自喜。

I'd like to thank our employees throughout the organization for their hard work, flexibility and resilience during this stressful time.

我要感謝整個組織的員工在這個充滿壓力的時期的辛勤工作、靈活性和韌性。

In Q2 and more so into Q3, we began bulk and individual separations and began product finishing.

在第二季度和第三季度，我們開始批量和單獨分離，並開始產品精加工。

In Q3, we expect to begin modest shipments of NdPr oxide along with lanthanum and cerium products and the production of SEG-Plus. We are pleased that the process chemistry and major equipment appear capable of operating in line with the Stage II design basis. We view this as a major success given the complexity of the process.

在第三季度，我們預計將開始適度出貨 NdPr 氧化物以及鑭和鈰產品以及 SEG-Plus 的生產。我們很高興看到工藝化學和主要設備似乎能夠按照第二階段的設計基礎運行。考慮到流程的複雜性，我們認為這是一次重大成功。

Our confidence extends across the hydrometallurgy, rare separation and product finishing circuits, but it is still early days and each piece of equipment and process experiences its own challenges along the path to stability.

我們的信心遍及濕法冶金、稀有分離和產品精加工迴路，但現在仍處於早期階段，每台設備和工藝在穩定的道路上都會經歷自己的挑戰。

We had the enormous advantage of inheriting an NdPr separation facility that has produced on spec materials in the past, and it was recommissioned in a manner that allows us to quickly produce on-spec material again. To avoid forfeiting this advantage that shape many months off the commissioning process, we continue to proceed prudently both upstream and in our separation survey.

我們擁有繼承過去生產符合規格材料的 NdPr 分離設施的巨大優勢，並且它的重新調試方式使我們能夠再次快速生產符合規格的材料。為了避免喪失這一在調試過程結束後數月的優勢，我們繼續謹慎地進行上游和分離調查。

In regards to the trajectory, Stage II operational performance, as with Stage I hinges on consistent and safe execution and how this manifests in uptime, mineral recovery and throughput. With the prior face of commissioning and commercial operations behind us, we're now working towards achieving incrementally higher uptimes in certain circuit, while maintaining modest throughput, identifying and resolving temporary bottlenecks before ramping throughput to our targeted run rate. As we do so, we are, as we fully anticipated, seeing inconsistencies in the performance of certain areas of the plant, more regularly than we expect in stabilized operations. While we are confident that the chemistry works, inconsistencies can come from a wide variety of sources, including new and legacy instruments and automation controls programming, secondary process equipment and material handling.

就軌跡而言，第二階段的運營績效與第一階段一樣，取決於一致和安全的執行，以及這在正常運行時間、礦物回收率和吞吐量方面的體現。隨著先前的調試和商業運營的過去，我們現在正在努力在某些線路中實現逐步提高的正常運行時間，同時保持適度的吞吐量，在將吞吐量提高到我們的目標運行率之前識別和解決臨時瓶頸。當我們這樣做時，正如我們充分預期的那樣，我們發現工廠某些區域的性能不一致，這種情況比我們在穩定運行中預期的更為頻繁。雖然我們對化學反應充滿信心，但不一致可能來自多種來源，包括新舊儀器和自動化控制編程、二次加工設備和材料處理。

As I've said previously, we remain focused on the overall mission and will not sacrifice long-term success, sustainability and profitability of our operation for near-term announcements. But the bottom line is that we are overwhelmed by the commitment of our team and very pleased with our Stage II progress.

正如我之前所說，我們仍然專注於整體使命，不會為了短期公告而犧牲我們運營的長期成功、可持續性和盈利能力。但最重要的是，我們對團隊的承諾感到不知所措，並對第二階段的進展感到非常滿意。

And with that, I'll turn it back over to Jim.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給吉姆。

Thanks, Michael. Before we go to Q&A, I wanted to provide some updated perspective on our industry and the general supply-demand environment, both present and future.

謝謝，邁克爾。在進行問答之前，我想提供一些有關我們行業以及當前和未來總體供需環境的最新觀點。

NdPR pricing remained weak throughout the quarter, trading in an approximate range in the low to mid-60s per kilogram. This was mainly a continuation of the conditions we discussed in May. We see the electric vehicle and e-mobility categories experiencing strong growth. We expect those to continue to grow at least 20% to 30% per year for quite some time. However, industrial applications, wind turbines, hard disk drives, speakers for PCs and smartphones and other consumer electronics applications have been weak throughout 2023.

NdPR 定價在整個季度仍然疲軟，交易範圍約為每公斤 60 多美元。這主要是我們五月份討論的條件的延續。我們看到電動汽車和電動汽車類別正在經歷強勁增長。我們預計，在相當長的一段時間內，這些數字將繼續以每年至少 20% 至 30% 的速度增長。然而，工業應用、風力渦輪機、硬盤驅動器、PC和智能手機揚聲器以及其他消費電子應用在2023年一直表現疲軟。

Certainly, the economic conditions in China are hitting those categories significantly. As a reminder though, the split between electric transport and then all the other industrial and consumer options in our industry is currently approximately 25% to 75%, respectively. This means that in the near term, a 5% hiccup in those traditional spaces can effectively wipe out the accelerating demand in EVs. Of course, this is a short-term phenomenon because the compounding effect of growth verticals begins to trump the influence of legacy industries within a couple of years. Then, of course, the volatile nature here works both ways.

當然，中國的經濟狀況正在嚴重影響這些類別。但需要提醒的是，電動交通與我們行業中的所有其他工業和消費者選擇之間的差距目前分別約為 25% 至 75%。這意味著在短期內，這些傳統領域出現 5% 的問題就可以有效消除電動汽車不斷增長的需求。當然，這是一種短期現象，因為垂直增長的複合效應在幾年內開始超過傳統行業的影響。當然，這裡的波動性是雙向的。

On the supply side, we think 2023 has been impacted by the reopening of the border between Myanmar and China. We understand that there was a fair amount of pent-up inventory from Myanmar mining production that entered China over the first 6 months of the year. I would encourage anyone interested to Google for stories about toxic rare earth mining and human rights abuses in Myanmar. This supply obviously interferes with normal market forces and more importantly, of course, American National Security and humanity. We expect though that this relative impact to supply is transitory.

在供應方面，我們認為2023年受到了中緬邊境重新開放的影響。據我們了解，今年前 6 個月，有相當數量的緬甸礦業生產被壓抑的庫存進入中國。我鼓勵任何有興趣的人通過谷歌搜索有關緬甸有毒稀土開采和侵犯人權的故事。這種供應顯然干擾了正常的市場力量，當然更重要的是，干擾了美國的國家安全和人性。不過，我們預計這種對供應的相對影響是暫時的。

So net-net, as I have said many times before, anything can happen in commodities prices in the short term. With that said, we view the recent soft pricing environment, as explainable by identifiable market factors on both the demand and the supply side that fortunately seem to be mostly behind us. Therefore, from our vantage point, the long-term prospects for our industry and the value of our platform remain extraordinary.

因此，正如我之前多次說過的那樣，短期內大宗商品價格可能會發生任何事情。話雖如此，我們認為最近的疲軟定價環境可以通過需求和供應方面可識別的市場因素來解釋，幸運的是，這些因素似乎基本上已經過去了。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們行業的長期前景和我們平台的價值仍然是非凡的。

On that note, we thought we would be doing shareholders and the clients a disservice, if we did not at least mention the word artificial intelligence on today's call.

在這一點上，我們認為，如果我們不在今天的電話會議上至少提到人工智能這個詞，我們就會給股東和客戶帶來傷害。

So let's go ahead and move to Slide 9. All these pictures were created using the Bing Image Creator, which is powered by Dall-E. We had a little competition internally here at MP to see who could do the best prompt to generate images that outline how exciting MP's opportunity is in this new AI future.

讓我們繼續看幻燈片 9。所有這些圖片都是使用由 Dall-E 提供支持的 Bing Image Creator 創建的。我們在 MP 內部進行了一場小競賽，看看誰能最好地提示生成圖像，概述 MP 在這個新的人工智能未來中的機會是多麼令人興奮。

The picture on the left is what rare earth mining could look like in the year 2040. This one is somewhat fantastical, but I think now we have some better ideas for what Michael's next uniform might look like.

左圖是 2040 年稀土開采的樣子。這有點夢幻，但我認為現在我們對邁克爾的下一套制服可能是什麼樣子有了一些更好的想法。

The second image is what is supposed to be the Chicago skyline a couple of decades from now, where EVs, autonomous vehicles, EV Tal and drones are dominant modes of electric transport or motion.

第二張圖片是幾十年後芝加哥的天際線，電動汽車、自動駕駛汽車、電動汽車和無人機是電動交通或運動的主要模式。

I think, we would all agree that this is a reasonable depiction of what might be a reality in the not so distant future. This is a world where the demand for rare magnetics is many multiples of what we see today.

我想，我們都會同意，這是對不久的將來可能成為現實的合理描述。這個世界對稀有磁性材料的需求是我們今天所看到的許多倍。

The third slide is where things get interesting. Here, we have both quadrupedal and bipedal robots. The more colloquial terms you might have otherwise heard for these are robot dogs and humanoid robots.

第三張幻燈片是事情變得有趣的地方。在這裡，我們有四足機器人和雙足機器人。您可能聽到過的更通俗的術語是機器狗和人形機器人。

At first launch, even as recently as earlier this year before the launch of ChatGPT, these objects might have seemed like totally distant fantasies, but we are already seeing companies apply large language models to robots like these. Just check out YouTube, where you can see a number of videos where various companies are showing off robots, just like these that are able to be directed with spoken language.

在首次發佈時，甚至就在今年早些時候推出 ChatGPT 之前，這些對象可能看起來完全是遙遠的幻想，但我們已經看到公司將大型語言模型應用於此類機器人。只要看看YouTube，你就可以看到很多不同公司在展示機器人的視頻，就像那些能夠用口語指導的機器人一樣。

Robots use small motors called actuators in their joints to enable movement and provide balance, strength and dexterity. Magnets, primarily rare earth magnets, are what power that. In simple terms, think of an EV as essentially a robot on wheels. It has a large battery and in most cases, a rare magnet in its motor transforming the stored energy into motion. A robot has a small battery and then lots of actuators around this structure. When size, weight and performance matter, rare earth magnets win. For many robotics use cases, a rare earth permanent magnet is likely going to be the only solution for certain actuators.

機器人在其關節中使用稱為執行器的小型電機來實現運動並提供平衡、力量和靈活性。磁鐵（主要是稀土磁鐵）為其提供動力。簡而言之，電動汽車本質上是一個帶輪子的機器人。它有一個大電池，在大多數情況下，它的電機中有一個罕見的磁鐵，可以將存儲的能量轉化為運動。機器人有一個小電池，然後在這個結構周圍有很多執行器。當尺寸、重量和性能都很重要時，稀土磁體會獲勝。對於許多機器人用例，稀土永磁體可能是某些執行器的唯一解決方案。

How this will all play out and over what time frame? It's anyone's guess. For a rough order of magnitude, though, today's quadrupedal and bipedal robots might use anywhere between 0.2 and 3 kilograms of NdPr, a robot doing a major strength task or one needing balance for some kind of security or military case is likely going to need even more NdPr per unit than 3 kilograms. This compares to about 0.5 to 1.5 kilograms in a typical EV.

這一切將如何進行以及需要多長時間？這是任何人的猜測。不過，就粗略的數量級而言，當今的四足和雙足機器人可能會使用0.2 至3 公斤之間的NdPr，執行主要力量任務的機器人或需要平衡以實現某種安全或軍事情況的機器人可能甚至需要每單位NdPr含量超過3公斤。相比之下，典型電動汽車的重量約為 0.5 至 1.5 公斤。

Roughly 85 million cars are produced per year, and there are about 1.4 billion cars on the road. Earlier this year, Elon Musk predicted that AI robots would eventually outnumber humans. If he turns out to be correct, it would suggest that the size of the opportunity for MP will be many multiples that of EVs. Moreover, in EV applications, rare earths have maintained a 90-plus percent share. Even as there is an understandable conversation around the trade-offs of significantly better performance with rare earth versus the cost and/or supply chain availability and other risks, in robotics, given the space limitations and performance needs, it is very likely that there will be a significant percentage of use cases where substitution is just not feasible at any price.

每年生產約 8500 萬輛汽車，道路上行駛的汽車約 14 億輛。今年早些時候，埃隆·馬斯克預測人工智能機器人的數量最終將超過人類。如果事實證明他是正確的，那麼 MP 的機會大小將是電動汽車的許多倍。此外，在電動汽車應用中，稀土一直保持著90%以上的份額。儘管圍繞稀土性能顯著提高與成本和/或供應鏈可用性以及其他風險之間的權衡存在著可以理解的對話，但在機器人技術中，考慮到空間限制和性能需求，很可能會出現在很大一部分用例中，無論如何價格都不可能進行替代。

I would also add that it is also less likely that the Chinese are going to want to provide magnets to American companies in an area with such direct military application.

我還要補充一點，中國人也不太可能願意在具有如此直接軍事用途的地區向美國公司提供磁鐵。

So to conclude, AI excitement is playing out right now in the public markets via the chip companies, mega cap tech and a handful of other companies but a profound change from AI over time is likely going to come from the next layer of innovation on top of the infrastructure layer.

總而言之，人工智能的興奮點目前正在通過芯片公司、大型科技公司和少數其他公司在公開市場上上演，但隨著時間的推移，人工智能的深刻變化很可能來自頂層的下一層創新的基礎設施層。

Robotics is going to be an important disruptive vertical, where we believe AI is pulling forward into the next few years, we might have taken decades. I do not know when, but at some point, investors are going to start to price that into platforms like ours, too.

機器人技術將成為一個重要的顛覆性垂直領域，我們相信人工智能將在未來幾年內向前推進，而我們可能需要幾十年的時間。我不知道什麼時候，但在某個時候，投資者也將開始為像我們這樣的平台定價。

With that, let's open it up to questions. Operator?

說到這裡，讓我們提出問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Matt Summerville 和 D.A.戴維森。

Two questions, I think. First, Jim, the comment you made around Myanmar, can you talk about whether you think that supply spigot, if you will, inbound into China has normalized at this point? Or do you still feel like there's still some excess inventory to be brought over the border, so to speak? Well, I guess that's literal.

我想有兩個問題。首先，吉姆，您就緬甸問題發表的評論，您能否談談您是否認為進入中國的供應龍頭（如果您願意的話）目前已經正常化？或者可以這麼說，您是否仍然覺得仍有一些多餘的庫存需要帶過邊境？嗯，我想這就是字面意思。

Sure. Matt, thanks for the question. So Myanmar is tough to really know. But what I would say is what we -- it was -- that border was shut off for the most part, and there was a lot of inventory that built. And from everything that we have heard that was sort of a huge rush of supply that came through kind of throughout this year, so we think it's sort of a onetime impact of excess supply. And our -- we believe there's been a recent crack down on that.

當然。馬特，謝謝你的提問。所以緬甸很難真正了解。但我想說的是，我們的邊境大部分被關閉，並且建立了很多庫存。從我們所聽到的一切來看，今年全年出現了巨大的供應高峰，所以我們認為這是供應過剩的一次性影響。我們相信最近對此進行了打擊。

And so, I guess that's a long-winded way of saying our belief is that, that's pretty transitory. But as an impact, obviously, that supply exists in some form, but that's what we see from this standpoint.

所以，我想這是一種冗長的方式來表達我們的信念，那就是，這是相當短暫的。但顯然，作為一種影響，供應以某種形式存在，但這就是我們從這個角度看到的。

Got it. And then, just as a follow-up. I was wondering if you could comment on now that you've produced on-spec material, what kind of first pass yield you're seeing out of the separation and finishing operations and how that compares to where you thought those first pass yields would be?

知道了。然後，作為後續行動。我想知道您現在是否可以評論一下您已經生產出符合規格的材料，您在分離和精加工操作中看到的首次通過率是多少，以及與您認為的首次通過率相比如何？

Thanks for the question. This is Michael. I guess, there are so many parts of the process to hard to give you a single answer. We don't expect our initial production yields to -- from concentrate to finished product to be at our desired long-term yields we expect there will be significant improvement. But I guess, what I would say is that we started up our separation process with equipment that had produced on spec material in the past and was restarted in a manner to quickly produce on spec, and we're quite pleased with how the separation circuits are working, and similarly optimistic about how the finishing processes will work. I'll probably leave it at that lets you follow up.

謝謝你的提問。這是邁克爾。我想，這個過程有很多部分很難給你一個單一的答案。我們預計我們的初始產量（從精礦到成品）不會達到我們期望的長期產量，我們預計會有顯著改善。但我想，我想說的是，我們使用過去生產規格材料的設備啟動了分離過程，並以快速生產規格的方式重新啟動，我們對分離電路的效果非常滿意正在發揮作用，並且同樣對整理流程的運作方式持樂觀態度。我可能會將其保留，以便您跟進。

No, we can leave it there. Thanks, Michael.

不，我們可以把它留在那裡。謝謝，邁克爾。

Thanks, Matt.

謝謝，馬特。

The next question comes from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

So Michael, I just wanted to follow up on the discussion on Stage II. And so, is it fair to say then based on the comments that you had earlier that all critical steps, all critical processes have been running and are running, and it's now just a matter of fine-tuning and making sure that you can run all the circuits and all those processes in a consistent manner and then just improving, I guess, of time and your metrics like that, but the critical steps are already all running and you feel comfortable with that?

邁克爾，我只想跟進第二階段的討論。因此，根據您之前的評論，可以公平地說，所有關鍵步驟、所有關鍵流程都已經運行並且正在運行，現在只需進行微調並確保您可以運行所有我想，以一致的方式進行電路和所有這些流程，然後只是改進時間和指標，但關鍵步驟已經全部運行，您對此感到滿意嗎？

I think that's a pretty fair statement. Certainly, the product finishing is last in line, and we can't put the proxy materials into parts of those circuits to run them, so they've had less time, I would say, slightly less -- yes, certainly, there's a little bit more work to do before we can -- just to say that all of the bugs are worked out or were 100% confident, but I would say that's not chemistry there. That's just kind of physical material processing. But otherwise, I think your statement is correct. The general processes are working. We feel comfortable that what we've designed is able to perform to the design basis of our circuits and that with time, we'll get to greater throughput, reliability and performance yield.

我認為這是一個相當公平的說法。當然，產品的完成是最後的，我們不能將代理材料放入這些電路的某些部分來運行它們，所以他們的時間更少，我想說，稍微少一點——是的，當然，有一個在此之前我們還需要做一些工作——只是說所有的錯誤都已解決或100% 有信心，但我想說這不是化學反應。這只是一種物理材料處理。但除此之外，我認為你的說法是正確的。一般流程正在運行。我們感到放心的是，我們的設計能夠滿足我們電路的設計基礎，並且隨著時間的推移，我們將獲得更高的吞吐量、可靠性和性能產量。

All right. That's quite encouraging. And then would you -- how do you feel that you are measuring against the timetable that you had plan or defined for the ramp-up of Stage II? Are you on time, you think you are a little bit ahead, or are you a little bit behind schedule? How would you characterize that?

好的。這非常令人鼓舞。然後，您覺得您正在根據您為第二階段的啟動計劃或定義的時間表進行衡量嗎？你準時嗎？你認為你比計劃提前了一點，還是比計劃晚了一點？您如何形容這一點？

Yes, I think we've said all along that the process will be nonlinear, so it's sort of hard to kind of benchmark against the unexpected. We knew there'd be a lot of unexpected challenges, and we continue to see that play out. Certainly, there are many challenges we anticipated and then challenges in places that we thought would be a little bit easier, overall, really proud of the team and how they're working through those challenges and feel comfortable that the targets, we set out remain our targets.

是的，我想我們一直在說這個過程將是非線性的，所以很難針對意外情況進行基準測試。我們知道會有很多意想不到的挑戰，我們將繼續看到這種情況的發生。當然，我們預計會遇到很多挑戰，然後在我們認為會更容易一些的地方遇到挑戰，總體而言，我們為團隊以及他們如何應對這些挑戰感到自豪，並對我們設定的目標仍然存在感到滿意我們的目標。

Right. No, fair enough. And maybe last question for Ryan. What could comment on the cash flow generation in the quarter? I think, I calculate -- we calculate something around $10 million in 2Q. That was below our expectations, both consensus and our own despite the fact that you guys bid on EBITDA, right, both also the consensus and our number. So some color there would be great.

正確的。不，很公平。也許是瑞安的最後一個問題。對本季度現金流產生有何評論？我想，我計算過——我們計算出第二季度的收入約為 1000 萬美元。這低於我們的預期，無論是共識還是我們自己的預期，儘管你們競標的是 EBITDA，對吧，共識和我們的數字也是如此。所以有一些顏色會很棒。

Sure. Carlos, I think probably the missing piece on consensus versus what we actually achieved was likely a fairly significant mid-$20 million cash tax payment relating to prior year taxes. And so obviously, as you know, often a mismatch between P&L timing and cash flow timing on that cash tax payment. So that is the vast majority of the delta. Obviously, if you normalize for that, we would have probably significantly beat consensus on those numbers.

當然。卡洛斯，我認為，與我們實際取得的成果相比，共識中缺失的部分可能是與上一年稅收相關的相當可觀的 2000 萬美元現金稅款。很明顯，正如您所知，現金納稅的損益時間和現金流時間之間通常不匹配。這就是三角洲的絕大多數。顯然，如果你對此進行正常化，我們可能會大大超過對這些數字的共識。

The next question comes from the line of George Gianarikas with Canaccord Genuity.

下一個問題來自 George Gianarikas 與 Canaccord Genuity 的關係。

I just like maybe a little bit of an update, as you now start to ramp and the NdPr production to what you think your production costs per kilogram will be going forward?

我只是喜歡一點更新，因為您現在開始提高 NdPr 產量，您認為未來每公斤的生產成本會是多少？

Sure. George, we'll stick with George G. Well, I can take that. It's Ryan. I think what I'd say on production cost is obviously it's early. I think we've been very clear that the early production is going to come at a different cost structure than the run rate production, of course, as you'd expect.

當然。喬治，我們還是選擇喬治·G。好吧，我可以接受。是瑞安。我想我想說的生產成本顯然還為時過早。我認為我們已經非常清楚，早期生產的成本結構將與運行率生產不同，當然，正如您所期望的那樣。

We are obviously very proud of our position on the cost curve that's well demonstrated in our Stage I business. We continue to have significant confidence in maintaining that lead in that position on the cost curve, as we transition to Stage II separated product production. We gave a little color to investors and analysts when we originally went public on where we think roughly cost per kilogram would be for NdPr. There are a lot of things that since then have changed, namely commodity reagents, but there's also a lot that has stayed the same. And so, this is something that I think other than major commodities and inflation, as Michael laid out, with the chemistry working the way that we expect, that is the fundamental driver of the economic framework that will be made out to all of you. And so, we don't expect that to change, which is super encouraging.

顯然，我們對我們在成本曲線上的地位感到非常自豪，這在我們的第一階段業務中得到了很好的體現。隨著我們過渡到第二階段分離產品生產，我們仍然對保持在成本曲線上的領先地位充滿信心。當我們最初公開時，我們向投資者和分析師透露了我們認為镨镨每公斤的大致成本。從那時起，有很多東西發生了變化，即商品試劑，但也有很多東西保持不變。因此，我認為，除了主要大宗商品和通貨膨脹之外，正如邁克爾所闡述的那樣，隨著化學反應按照我們預期的方式發揮作用，這是經濟框架的基本驅動力，這將向你們所有人展示。因此，我們預計這種情況不會改變，這是非常令人鼓舞的。

Great. And maybe as a follow-up, last quarter, Jim, you made a statement that you think that at $60 a kilogram that China Inc. is likely unprofitable. Is that still your view? And do you suspect that in and around this price range, we should see some stabilization?

偉大的。也許作為後續，吉姆，上個季度，您發表了一份聲明，表示您認為中國公司在每公斤 60 美元的價格下可能無利可圖。這仍然是你的觀點嗎？您是否懷疑在這個價格範圍內及其附近，我們應該看到一些穩定？

George, thanks. Yes, prices in May were roughly around where they are today. So that statement is still true. I mean we -- it's always very difficult to read the tea leaves in China. And if you recall, and I said something like this last quarter, but it's difficult because there's always the ability to sort of shift various things across various entities, as they do in the supply chain or in the stream, if you will.

喬治，謝謝。是的，五月份的價格大致與今天的價格相當。所以這句話仍然是正確的。我的意思是我們——在中國讀茶葉總是很困難。如果你還記得的話，我在上個季度說過這樣的話，但這很困難，因為總有能力在不同的實體之間轉移各種事物，就像它們在供應鍊或流程中所做的那樣，如果你願意的話。

So -- but from everything that we see, that remains the case. And so it is encouraging. And as I said in the prepared remarks, we think that those -- these items are behind somewhat behind us. And so pricing feels more stable here. And I would argue that for all the reasons I've stated that, that downside volatility that we saw, there's always not if or when likelihood that there's that upside volatility the other way, right? It gets reflective. But we shall see.

所以——但從我們所看到的一切來看，情況仍然如此。所以這是令人鼓舞的。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們認為這些項目在某種程度上落後於我們。因此這裡的定價感覺更加穩定。我認為，出於我所說的所有原因，我們看到的下行波動，總是不存在是否或何時可能存在相反的上行波動，對嗎？它變得反光。但我們將會看到。

The next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 David Deckelbaum 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

Jim, I'm tempted to ask you about the time line for getting [Deathpunk] to work at Mountain Pass. But I guess, I'll hold off on that one. But the -- I am curious as you think about, I thought the idea was in the second quarter that you all would be withholding some inventory or perhaps a greater amount of inventory to be used in the Stage II testing, I just wanted to confirm whether that had happened or not. And if, we should still be anticipating that you're effectively still selling a significant amount of concentrate in the back half of this year.

吉姆，我很想問你關於讓[死亡朋克]在帕斯山工作的時間表。但我想，我會推遲這一點。但是，正如你們所想的那樣，我很好奇，我認為這個想法是在第二季度，你們所有人都會扣留一些庫存，或者可能會扣留更多庫存用於第二階段測試，我只是想確認一下不管那件事是否發生過。如果的話，我們仍然應該預計您在今年下半年仍然有效地銷售大量精礦。

Yes, David, it's Ryan. I can take that. What I've laid out in the prepared remarks was absolutely a reiteration of that expectation that there's a pretty significant amount of inventory that gets consumed into the (inaudible) as we commissioned. We had talked about roughly 2 weeks worth or, let's call it, just shy of 2,000 tons of REO.

是的，大衛，我是瑞安。我可以接受。我在準備好的發言中所闡述的內容絕對是重申這樣的預期，即我們委託時有相當大量的庫存被消耗到（聽不清）中。我們討論了大約 2 週的價值，或者我們稱之為接近 2,000 噸 REO。

We, as of June 30, had consumed about 1/3 of that. And so, it's safe to say that the remainder of that will get consumed as we ramp and hopefully as quickly as possible. And so, I would absolutely expect as you model out Q3 and even Q4 to think about not just the impact of the rest of that inventory getting consumed, as effectively line fill into the downstream circuits. But in addition, I talked a little bit, in remarks about the sales cycle as we transition to separated products.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們已經消耗了其中的約 1/3。因此，可以肯定地說，隨著我們的發展，剩下的部分將被消耗掉，並希望盡快消耗掉。因此，我絕對希望當您對第三季度甚至第四季度進行建模時，不僅要考慮其餘庫存消耗的影響，還要考慮有效的線路填充到下游電路中的影響。但除此之外，我在評論中談到了我們向獨立產品過渡時的銷售週期。

And so with that, I just want to reiterate, obviously, the timing there as we start to consume that REO in concentrate into the downstream circuits, converted into separated product and then either sell it on or bring it to tollers to be -- to turn into metal and sell to our ultimate customers. There's also the timing impact of that longer sales cycle.

因此，我只想重申，顯然，當我們開始將 REO 集中消耗到下游迴路時，轉換成分離的產品，然後將其出售或將其帶到收費商處的時機 -變成金屬並出售給我們的最終客戶。更長的銷售週期還存在時間影響。

And certainly, as you'd expect, as we ramp our separated product production, and as we sort of continue to fill that channel, particularly the metal production channel, this will get lapped and will be a onetime impact, but it is important to think about over the next few quarters the impact that, that will have on the financial model.

當然，正如您所期望的那樣，隨著我們提高分離產品的產量，並且隨著我們繼續填補該渠道，特別是金屬生產渠道，這將會受到影響，並且將是一次性的影響，但重要的是考慮一下未來幾個季度這將對財務模型產生的影響。

Ryan, that's a nice segue into my follow-up, which is just for my own edification. The sales cycle is expected to be 6 months for getting the NdPr metal because I guess when you sell concentrate, [Chancas] taking delivery of that cargo at the port, so you can recognize revenue as soon as that we support versus when you're using a tolling arrangement? You don't recognize revenue until the product that's still, I guess, technically your resource until it ends up in the hands of the customer?

Ryan，這是我後續行動的一個很好的延續，這只是為了我自己的啟發。獲得NdPr 金屬的銷售週期預計為6 個月，因為我猜當您銷售精礦時，[Chancas] 在港口接收該貨物，因此您可以在我們支持時立即確認收入，而不是在您出售精礦時確認收入。使用收費安排？我想，直到產品最終到達客戶手中之前，從技術上講，您仍然是您的資源，您才會確認收入？

Sure. It's a good question. I'd say 6 months is probably not the right answer there. Certainly, it's significantly longer than our current sales cycle for concentrate.

當然。這是一個好問題。我想說 6 個月可能不是正確的答案。當然，它比我們目前的濃縮物銷售週期要長得多。

To clarify the prepared remarks that I think you're keying in on, what we had talked about is separated NdPr production NdPr oxide production and shipments that are happening later in this quarter. So later in Q3, likely much of that revenue could be Q1 revenue. So end of Q3, beginning of Q1 is not quite 6 months. Shorter than that for sure. However, longer than exactly what you laid out, that our sales cycle is right now, that we deliver product to the port at Long Beach and title transfers there. That's when our revenue recognition happens for concentrate today.

為了澄清我認為您正在重點關注的準備好的評論，我們討論的是本季度晚些時候將發生的镨镨生產和氧化镨氧化物生產分開的情況。因此，在第三季度晚些時候，大部分收入可能是第一季度的收入。所以第三季度末、第一季度初還不到 6 個月。肯定比那短。然而，比您所設定的要長，我們現在的銷售週期，我們將產品運送到長灘港口並在那裡轉讓所有權。這就是我們今天確認濃縮液收入的時候。

I flag though that not all separated products will be subject to the longer sales cycle. Part of our products will remain our products as they get told into metal and then the revenue recognition is likely at the port in Southeast Asia when it's delivered to customers, to be distributed to broader Asia into Japan primarily. There will be instances where we sell oxide at the Port of Long Beach as well. And so, there really will be a mix.

但我指出，並非所有分離的產品都會受到更長的銷售週期的影響。我們的部分產品在被加工成金屬時仍將是我們的產品，然後當產品交付給客戶時，可能會在東南亞港口確認收入，主要分銷到更廣泛的亞洲地區，主要是日本。有時我們也會在長灘港出售氧化物。所以，確實會出現混合。

What I mentioned, and I think it's important to keep in mind, just for the next quarter or 2 is that our early NdPr oxide shipments likely will be told into metal. And so, these early shipments sort of to help you guys think about your models, will likely be subject to that longer sales cycle. But as we carry forward and sort of start to make more product and broaden the customer base and things like that, there will be a mix.

我提到的，我認為重要的是要記住，在接下來的一兩個季度，我們早期的 NdPr 氧化物出貨量可能會被轉移到金屬中。因此，這些早期發貨在某種程度上可以幫助你們考慮您的模型，可能會受到更長的銷售週期的影響。但隨著我們繼續前進並開始生產更多產品並擴大客戶群等類似的事情，將會出現混合。

The next question comes from the line of Lawson Winder with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自勞森·溫德 (Lawson Winder) 與美國銀行的聯繫。

Nice quarter and great update. Okay. So I wanted to try and put a bit of a finer point on the ramp up. Should we still be modeling a run rate of 6,000 tons of NdPr in for full year 2024?

不錯的季度和很棒的更新。好的。所以我想嘗試在斜坡上提出一些更精細的觀點。我們是否仍應對 2024 年全年 6,000 噸镨镨產能​​進行建模？

I'm happy to start. It's Ryan, and then Michael you anything else to talk about on the commissioning side, feel free to jump in. But, what I would say is, frankly, a reiteration of Michael's commentary that based on what we've seen run rate production at the end of the year remains our goal. It's nonlinear. It's difficult to perfectly forecast, but that very much remains our goal there are certain areas that I'm sure Mike can better expand on that will continue to tweak to improve throughput and all that versus what we're seeing now.

我很高興開始。這是瑞安，然後是邁克爾，您在調試方面還有什麼要談論的，請隨意加入。但是，坦率地說，我想說的是重申邁克爾的評論，該評論基於我們所看到的運行率生產年底仍然是我們的目標。它是非線性的。很難完美地預測，但這仍然是我們的目標，我確信邁克可以更好地擴展某些領域，這將繼續調整以提高吞吐量以及所有這些與我們現在所看到的相比。

As you think about '24 though, I'd say it's kind of early to predict exactly what our output and importantly, sales volumes will be for 2024, at this point. We've got a lot of work to do, as I mentioned, in the coming months to finish commissioning and to ramp production. And so I'd say stay tuned. We'll continue to update you on the progress, and we'll let you on calls going forward. But, as we always do, we will formulate our 2024 or our next year production and sales plan based on customer demand and on market conditions, once we get closer to that time period.

不過，當你想到 24 年時，我想說，現在準確預測我們的產量還為時過早，重要的是，目前預測 2024 年的銷量還為時過早。正如我提到的，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們還有很多工作要做，以完成調試並提高產量。所以我想說請繼續關注。我們將繼續向您通報最新進展情況，並會在以後致電時通知您。但是，正如我們一貫所做的那樣，一旦接近這個時間段，我們將根據客戶需求和市場狀況制定 2024 年或明年的生產和銷售計劃。

You actually -- you touched on a really interesting point there, and that is formulating your sales based on market conditions. So, I mean one of your competitors made some comments along those lines recently. Is that, is that how you kind of think about the market? I mean if the market is not willing to take the material does MP just hold it back?

實際上，您談到了一個非常有趣的點，那就是根據市場條件製定銷售。所以，我的意思是，你們的一位競爭對手最近發表了一些類似的評論。您是這樣看待市場的嗎？我的意思是，如果市場不願意接受這些材料，MP 會阻止它嗎？

It's a great question. We -- I think the great thing about what we've built here is a platform where we have product flexibility, right? We have the ability to produce Stage I product, Stage II products. We're making great progress on Stage III. We have that as a lever to pull as well. And so, we always as a management team are focused on maximizing shareholder value. And so, if that means changing the product mix for a period of time, so be it.

這是一個很好的問題。我認為我們在這裡構建的偉大之處在於我們擁有產品靈活性的平台，對嗎？我們有能力生產第一階段產品、第二階段產品。我們在第三階段取得了巨大進展。我們也將其作為拉動的槓桿。因此，作為管理團隊，我們始終專注於股東價值最大化。因此，如果這意味著在一段時間內改變產品組合，那就這樣吧。

But to be clear, we have not seen any pushback or any lack of demand. We have lots of conversations and lots of demand. And the goal now is to thoughtfully build out our sales channel and think about the full downstream of our business.

但需要明確的是，我們沒有看到任何阻力或需求不足。我們有很多對話和很多需求。現在的目標是深思熟慮地建立我們的銷售渠道並考慮我們業務的整個下游。

Okay. Yes, that's great color. And then maybe just finally, I wanted to kind of understand the heavy rare earth separation circuit, is that going to ramp up right on the back of this? Could we be modeling some costs for that in 2024? Or is this something that's going to happen a little later on, like maybe '25 or '26. And if it is happening next year, how should we kind of think about that in terms of like impact on NdPr?

好的。是的，那是很棒的顏色。然後也許最後，我想了解一下重稀土分離電路，它會在這之後加速嗎？我們能否在 2024 年對此進行一些成本建模？或者這會在稍後發生，比如 25 或 26 年。如果明年發生這種情況，我們應該如何考慮對 NdPr 的類似影響？

Yes. Well, no, by the way, I'm glad you raised that since you mentioned one of our peers, I'm guessing you're wondering about heavies. And there's probably just for understanding the overall project, maybe just a little important background for those who don't know.

是的。好吧，不，順便說一句，我很高興你提出這個問題，因為你提到了我們的一位同事，我猜你對重磅炸彈感到好奇。這可能只是為了了解整個項目，對於那些不知道的人來說可能只是一些重要的背景。

But early in '22, both us and Lynas were given awards by the Department of Defense. Actually, our award was announced by the President himself to us. And so, that was exciting. We talked about that. And then there was an announcement of something with our peer a couple of days ago. But what I would tell you on that is I think it's pretty clear that DoD understand the importance of a level playing field and good competition across the spectrum here. And we are fiduciaries, and you can imagine that given how much has changed since early last year in the world that we would certainly expect to proceed with projects that we believe are economically attractive, and that we believe are at a -- we believe we have a good competitive position.

但22年初，我們和萊納斯都獲得了國防部的嘉獎。事實上，我們的獎項是總統親自向我們宣布的。所以，這很令人興奮。我們討論過這個。幾天前，我們與同行宣布了一些事情。但我想告訴你的是，我認為很明顯，國防部了解公平競爭環境和各領域良好競爭的重要性。我們是受託人，你可以想像，考慮到自去年初以來世界發生了多大的變化，我們肯定會期望繼續進行我們認為具有經濟吸引力的項目，並且我們認為這些項目處於 - 我們相信我們擁有良好的競爭地位。

So, I think what I'm trying to get at in being is sort of direct as I can, is that you should expect, if you kind of heard everything I just said that we -- we are in discussions, and we believe that we will have equal support or similar support for our mission with respect to heavy. So I think, that that's a very positive thing that we recently saw.

所以，我認為我試圖盡可能直接地表達的是，如果你聽到了我剛才所說的一切，你應該期待，我們正在討論，我們相信我們將為我們的重型使命提供同等支持或類似支持。所以我認為，這是我們最近看到的一件非常積極的事情。

And so, I think I would leave it at that as far as the heavy project is related, just to say that, again, you can probably deduce from what I'm saying that I think that we will continue to expect some good things on that front.

因此，我想我會就這個繁重的項目相關而言，我只是想說，你可能可以從我所說的中推斷出，我認為我們將繼續期待一些好的事情那個前面。

And then lastly, I think you asked about timing. The heaviest project is to be online for the magnetics business, and that timing remains on track.

最後，我想你問的是時間安排。最繁重的項目是磁性業務的上線，而且這個時間安排仍然在正軌上。

The next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自勞倫斯·亞歷山大和杰弗里斯的對話。

I guess, first of all, could you just give a quick update on your thoughts around CapEx for this year and next year, just given kind of the milestones you've hit and kind of the inflationary pressures we're hearing about from other companies.

我想，首先，您能否快速介紹一下您對今年和明年資本支出的看法，以及您所達到的里程碑以及我們從其他公司聽到的通脹壓力。

Yes. Sure. Laurence, it's Ryan. We mentioned earlier on in the call that our original CapEx guidance for the year of $300 million remains intact. And we tend not to give CapEx guidance further out than that. But, what we have laid out, obviously, a couple of years ago in laying out sort of the broader capital plan across Stage II and Stage III was that $700 million investment. And that also remains on track.

是的。當然。勞倫斯，我是瑞安。我們之前在電話會議中提到，我們最初的 3 億美元資本支出指導保持不變。我們往往不會提供比這更進一步的資本支出指導。但是，幾年前我們在第二階段和第三階段製定更廣泛的資本計劃時顯然已經制定了 7 億美元的投資。這也仍然在正軌上。

Certainly, as you know, the Stage II spend is essentially behind us, except for some small items from a timing perspective. And so, there are other projects that we're continually investing in and out in past, in addition, of course, to our Stage III business. And so, we've done about $130 million year-to-date in CapEx. We continue to see that $300 million is a fair number to model for the rest of the year.

當然，如您所知，除了從時間角度來看的一些小項目外，第二階段的支出基本上已經過去了。因此，除了我們的第三階段業務之外，我們過去還不斷投資和退出其他項目。因此，今年迄今為止我們的資本支出已達到約 1.3 億美元。我們仍然認為 3 億美元對於今年剩餘時間的模型來說是一個合理的數字。

And then, just to clarify two points you made in the earlier in the Q&A. With respect to the kind of 6,000 production run rate, given the lag you were talking about in terms of flowing through the P&L, were you trying to get at that the comparable run rate for 2024 would be 75%, 80% of that?

然後，澄清您在前面的問答中提出的兩點。就 6,000 輛的生產運行率而言，考慮到您所說的損益表流動方面的滯後，您是否試圖得出 2024 年的可比運行率將是其中的 75% 或 80%？

And then, I guess the other issue is with respect to the prices the ASPs on Stage II that you will flow through the P&L., can we assume that you are using -- that you'll be able to realize market prices? Or will there be some level of discount either through due to partnership arrangements or because you're kind of building relationships with customers who you expect to translate into magnet customers? Can you just give a sense for what, how closely we should hold you to whatever kind of public market indexes we use for Stage II?

然後，我想另一個問題是關於第二階段的 ASP 的價格，您將流經損益表。我們是否可以假設您正在使用 - 您將能夠實現市場價格？或者是否會因為合作夥伴關係安排或因為您正在與希望轉化為磁力客戶的客戶建立關係而提供一定程度的折扣？您能否告訴我們，我們應該讓您與我們用於第二階段的公開市場指數的密切程度如何？

Yes, I can take both of those. As it relates to the timing and the sales cycle, I don't think we were trying to make any specific comment as to 2024. I think that -- we're actually trying to avoid that since we don't give guidance. But what I'd say on that is if you have an assumption and our goal has remained to get to run rate production by the end of 2023. We've also tried to consistently flag, of course, that the overlap from a timing perspective of production and sales that we experienced now is not the same correlation in production and sales that we'll experience, once we're producing separated products. And so, I think you're on the right track. But certainly, if you were modeling 100% run rate starting 12/31, you would not have 6,000 tons of NdPr sold necessarily recognized, as revenue in 2024. I think that's a fair statement. Remind me your second point, second question.

是的，我可以同時接受這兩個。由於它與時間安排和銷售週期有關，我認為我們並沒有試圖對 2024 年做出任何具體評論。我認為，我們實際上是在試圖避免這種情況，因為我們不提供指導。但我要說的是，如果你有一個假設，並且我們的目標仍然是在 2023 年底之前實現正常生產。當然，我們也一直試圖始終指出，從時間角度來看，重疊我們現在經歷的生產和銷售的相關性與我們在生產分離產品時將經歷的生產和銷售的相關性不同。所以，我認為你走在正確的道路上。但當然，如果您從 12 月 31 日開始對 100% 的運行率進行建模，則銷售的 6,000 噸镨镨不一定會被確認為 2024 年的收入。我認為這是一個公平的說法。提醒我你的第二點，第二個問題。

Just how closely should your pricing going before to ASP at the time.

您的定價應該與當時的 ASP 有多接近。

Yes. On pricing, look, we will have a variety of different contract structures that are based on the indices that we all look at. I think the thing that will be interesting there as well is a difference potentially in timing and then, a variety of different contract structures as it relates to realized price versus market price. So I think, as we get closer to more significant sales volume, we'll continue to keep you updated there, but there's not going to be an easy pinpoint for me to be able to give you at this point to say, hey, take market and that was trapped. But we'll do our best to keep you updated from a modeling perspective as we get closer.

是的。在定價方面，我們將有各種不同的合同結構，這些合同結構基於我們都關注的指數。我認為有趣的是，時間上可能存在差異，然後是與實現價格與市場價格相關的各種不同的合同結構。所以我認為，當我們接近更顯著的銷量時，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況，但我不會有一個簡單的精確點可以讓您在這一點上說，嘿，採取市場並被困住了。但隨著時間的臨近，我們將盡力從建模的角度為您提供最新信息。

And just, I guess, with respect to kind of one other question earlier, just to help us understand the gains here, if you were to decide that you were to produce the rare NdPr, but then keep it off the market, what's the shelf life of the product? How long could you hold it off the market and still monetize it at the same economics?

我想，關於之前的另一個問題，只是為了幫助我們了解這裡的收益，如果您決定生產稀有的 NdPr，但隨後將其排除在市場之外，那麼貨架是什麼？產品的壽命？你能將其從市場上保留多久並仍然以相同的經濟條件將其貨幣化？

Mike, well, just to be clear, we don't have any expectation of keeping product off the market at this time. So I don't know, is that...

邁克，好吧，需要澄清的是，我們目前不希望將產品從市場上剔除。所以我不知道，是不是...

It's (inaudible) yes.

是的（聽不清）。

Yes. I guess in theoretical terms, I don't believe there should be a shelf life for oxide metal or alloy may have considerations of oxidizing.

是的。我想從理論上來說，我不認為氧化物金屬或合金應該有保質期，可能會考慮氧化。

The next question comes from the line of Ravi Sinha with (inaudible) Klein Capital.

下一個問題來自 Ravi Sinha 與（聽不清）Klein Capital 的對話。

Just quickly on your production facility in Texas. So could you confirm, if your magnet facility is covered under 48C, and if you get ITCs that we can count on?

快速了解您在德克薩斯州的生產設施。那麼您能否確認一下，您的磁鐵設施是否受到 48C 保護，以及您是否獲得了我們可以信賴的 ITC？

Sure. We had a little to hearing you, but I think the question was about 48C. Is that right?

當然。我們有點想听你說，但我認為問題是關於 48C 的。是對的嗎？

Right. If you magnet facility investment is covered under the 48C.

正確的。如果您的磁鐵設施投資涵蓋在 48C 的範圍內。

Right. On that point, since we spoke about this last, there have been some further updates and clarifications regarding 48C, and how it relates to our Stage III business and our DFW facility. I think, the important update there was from treasury and DOE that magnetic was specifically called out as a priority, that said, it's definitely too early to know if we will directly benefit from this program at this specific facility. And as you can expect for competitive reasons, we're not going to discuss specific support we may or may not be seeking from the federal government in a competitive process. But you could certainly expect that we're always monitoring these sorts of opportunities and will avail ourselves of any opportunities that arise.

正確的。在這一點上，自從我們上次談到這一點以來，我們對 48C 以及它與我們的第三階段業務和 DFW 設施的關係進行了一些進一步的更新和澄清。我認為，財政部和能源部的重要更新是，磁性被明確列為優先事項，也就是說，現在知道我們是否會直接從這個特定設施的該計劃中受益絕對為時過早。正如您出於競爭原因所期望的那樣，我們不會討論我們在競爭過程中可能會或可能不會尋求聯邦政府的具體支持。但您當然可以期望我們始終監控此類機會，並將利用出現的任何機會。

The final question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

Yes. Just wanted to see if you have any color on start-up cost. I know those are normalized out EBITDA, but just how do you see the progression? They came down quarter-on-quarter. Is this a trend that we should expect to continue or not really?

是的。只是想看看您對啟動成本是否有任何看法。我知道這些已標準化為 EBITDA，但您如何看待這一進展？它們逐季下降。我們是否應該期望這種趨勢會持續下去？

Carlos and Bob, I thought you were coming back on to congratulate us on our big milestone this quarter. But I guess...

卡洛斯和鮑勃，我以為你們會回來祝賀我們本季度取得的重大里程碑。但我猜...

That goes without saying. That goes without saying.

那不用說了。那不用說了。

Go ahead, Ryan.

來吧，瑞安。

No, it's a fair question. I'd say the reason you probably saw it come down a little bit sequentially, is that we started to enter into more normalized operations on various circuits, as we bring them online and process order. So as we've talked about consistently, we've been bringing each step of the process online, testing it, getting it up to sort of what we would consider commercial operations. And so, since we had been running some of the most upstream parts of the circuits for a relatively significant period of time since we got into June, part of those costs kind of fell out of the start-up category.

不，這是一個公平的問題。我想說的是，您可能會看到它按順序下降一點的原因是，我們開始對各種電路進行更標準化的操作，因為我們將它們聯機並處理順序。因此，正如我們一直以來所討論的那樣，我們一直在將流程的每一步都放在網上進行測試，使其達到我們所認為的商業運營的程度。因此，自從進入 6 月份以來，我們已經在相對較長的一段時間內運行了電路的一些最上游部分，因此部分成本不屬於啟動類別。

I think that, that phenomenon will continue, but we've rapidly added significantly more circuits into ongoing operation very recently. And so by their very nature, sort of start-up and nonrecurring costs are very difficult to model and predict. But I would say a fair way to estimate is, I think our Q2 numbers are probably fair to think about for Q3 and Q4 and then, obviously, would tail off very meaningfully.

我認為，這種現象將會持續下去，但我們最近在正在進行的操作中迅速增加了更多的電路。因此，就其本質而言，啟動成本和一次性成本很難建模和預測。但我想說，一個公平的估計方法是，我認為我們的第二季度數據對於第三季度和第四季度來說可能是公平的，然後顯然會非常有意義地減少。

There are no additional questions left at this time. I will now hand it back to Jim Litinsky. Please proceed.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把它交還給吉姆·利廷斯基。請繼續。

Thanks. I just wanted to say this was a an exciting milestone for us. And so we're -- I'm really proud of the team for the hard work, and we'll get back to work over here, and we look forward to talking to you all next quarter. Thanks, everyone.

謝謝。我只是想說這對我們來說是一個令人興奮的里程碑。所以我們——我真的為團隊的辛勤工作感到自豪，我們將回到這里工作，我們期待著下個季度與大家交談。感謝大家。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝。您現在可以斷開線路。