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Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to the MP Materials second-quarter 2024 earnings call and webcast. My name is Harry, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)
下午好,歡迎參加 MP Materials 2024 年第二季財報電話會議和網路廣播。我叫哈利,今天我將成為您的接線生。 (操作員說明)
I would now like to hand the conference over to Martin Sheehan, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.
我現在想將會議交給投資者關係主管馬丁希恩 (Martin Sheehan)。謝謝。請繼續。
Martin Sheehan - Senior Vice President & Head, Investor Relations
Martin Sheehan - Senior Vice President & Head, Investor Relations
Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the MP Materials second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me today from MP Materials are Jim Litinsky, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Rosenthal, Founder and Chief Operating Officer; and Ryan Corbette, Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝接線員,大家下午好。歡迎參加 MP Materials 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是 MP Materials 的創辦人、董事長兼執行長 Jim Litinsky;麥可‧羅森塔爾,創辦人兼營運長;瑞安‧科貝特 (Ryan Corbette),財務長。
As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation, earnings release, and in our SEC filings.
提醒一下,今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到各種假設和警告的影響。可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素包含在今天的簡報、收益發布和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。
In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's earnings release and the appendix to today's slide presentation.
此外,我們也在本簡報中納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標的調節可以在今天的收益發布和今天幻燈片演示的附錄中找到。
Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA and tons means metric tons. Finally, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website.
我們今天討論中提到的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA,噸指公噸。最後,我們的網站上提供了收益發布和幻燈片演示。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim. Jim?
這樣,我就把電話轉給吉姆。吉姆?
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
Thanks, Martin. Hello, everyone. As is our usual program, I will review the quarter at a high level. Ryan will then cover our financial performance and operating KPIs. Michael will follow with an overview and updates on Mountain Pass operations, and I will then return with closing remarks before Q&A.
謝謝,馬丁。大家好。按照我們通常的計劃,我將從高水平回顧本季度。然後 Ryan 將介紹我們的財務業績和營運 KPI。接下來,邁克爾將概述帕斯山運營情況和最新情況,然後我將在問答前發表結束語。
So let's get to it on slide 4. This was a very challenging quarter operationally and financially. Production in our upstream business was hindered by rig damage in a [thickener] that impacted operations for about three weeks. This was our biggest disruption in seven years.
讓我們在投影片 4 上討論這個問題。我們上游業務的生產因[濃縮機]的鑽機損壞而受到阻礙,影響營運約三週。這是我們七年來最大的破壞。
Michael and Brian will provide a lot more detail later in the call. But suffice to say, the unanticipated downtime impacted REO production as well as our financial performance in the quarter. In about an hour, though, when we finish this call, this tough quarter will be completely behind us as the team responded to the recent adversity in our usual unwavering fashion.
邁克爾和布萊恩將在稍後的電話會議中提供更多細節。但可以說的是,意外停機影響了 REO 生產以及我們本季的財務表現。不過,大約一個小時後,當我們完成這次電話會議時,這個艱難的季度將完全成為過去,因為團隊以我們一貫堅定不移的方式應對最近的逆境。
Production momentum coming out of Q2 and into Q3 has been very strong. In Q2, we actually achieved our second-best quarter of upstream productivity measured by REO produced per hour of uptime. In other words, when the upstream was operating, the team ran at about as efficiently as ever, and we are building on that momentum going into Q3.
第二季和第三季的生產勢頭非常強勁。在第二季度,我們實際上實現了上游生產率第二高的季度(以正常運行時間每小時生產的 REO 衡量)。換句話說,當上游運作時,團隊的運作效率與以往一樣,我們正在利用這一勢頭進入第三季。
So while it is still early, Q3 appears on track for record levels of upstream production. Some of this production growth is from early results in our upstream 60K optimization efforts. Through these efforts, we are already seeing higher recoveries out of the upstream, which is promising and bodes well for the future.
因此,儘管現在還為時過早,但第三季上游生產似乎有望達到創紀錄水平。產量的成長部分來自我們上游 60K 優化工作的早期成果。透過這些努力,我們已經看到上游的回收率更高,這對未來來說是充滿希望和良好的預兆。
So unfortunately, our Q2 results today reflect the financial impact of repair costs and loss deficiencies in one of our most challenging operating periods to date, as well as a continued weak pricing environment. But we are confident that beneath those headlines, the silver lining of this quarter is that we responded well to an unanticipated challenge and accomplished a lot in the upstream that should position us well going forward.
不幸的是,我們今天第二季的業績反映了維修成本和損失缺陷對我們迄今為止最具挑戰性的營運時期之一以及持續疲軟的定價環境的財務影響。但我們相信,在這些頭條新聞的背後,本季的一線希望是我們對意料之外的挑戰做出了良好的反應,並在上游取得了很多成就,這應該使我們能夠順利前進。
Moreover, and despite all the upstream challenges, we more than doubled NdPr production in the quarter to over 270 tons. This is the best midstream result we have achieved to date, and we expect another 50% increase in NdPr production in Q3.
此外,儘管面臨所有上游挑戰,我們本季的 NdPr 產量仍增加了一倍多,達到 270 噸以上。這是我們迄今為止取得的最好的中游業績,我們預計第三季 NdPr 產量將再成長 50%。
Over the past two months, we have seen improvements which will continue to drive down NdPr production costs in the coming quarters. We are not where we want to be yet, but we expect per-unit cost to materially improve as production ramps. This progress is well aligned with customer development activities.
在過去的兩個月裡,我們看到了一些改進,這些改進將在未來幾季繼續降低镨镨生產成本。我們尚未達到我們想要的目標,但我們預計隨著產量的增加,單位成本將大幅改善。這項進展與客戶開發活動非常吻合。
In the quarter, we signed an agreement for a substantial commitment of NdPr oxide with a new customer, a household name global automaker. We expect to begin delivering NdPr to them later this year, ramping into 2025.
本季度,我們與一家新客戶(一家家喻戶曉的全球汽車製造商)簽署了一份協議,承諾大量供應 NdPr 氧化物。我們預計將在今年稍後開始向他們提供 NdPr,並逐步到 2025 年。
We also were awarded a contract to supply NdPr to the Department of Defense in addition to our existing contract to provide lanthanum. Finally, in our downstream business, as we mentioned last quarter, we achieved important milestones in producing magnet precursor products, unlocking a $50 million prepayment in the quarter.
除了現有的提供鑭的合約外,我們還獲得了向國防部供應镨镨的合約。最後,在我們的下游業務中,正如我們上季度提到的,我們在生產磁鐵前驅體產品方面實現了重要的里程碑,在本季度解鎖了 5000 萬美元的預付款。
I would also like to add that we expect to earn approximately $190 million of incremental cash sources from additional customer prepayments and tax credits by the end of 2025. This means we still expect to maintain our strong balance sheet even as we complete the remaining investments in our magnetics facility, ramp up our midstream production at Mountain Pass, and navigate a weak pricing environment.
我還想補充一點,到2025 年底,我們預計將從額外的客戶預付款和稅收抵免中獲得約1.9 億美元的增量現金來源。保持強勁的資產負債表。
Installation and commissioning activities at the factory are progressing, and we remain on track to begin commercial production of NdPr metal later this year. In support of product development, we have commissioned our prototype production line and analytical labs.
工廠的安裝和調試活動正在進行中,我們仍有望在今年稍後開始镨金屬的商業化生產。為了支援產品開發,我們委託了原型生產線和分析實驗室。
The prototype line has all the equipment needed to transform metal into a finished magnet, which enables us to produce prototype magnet precursor materials and finished magnets and optimize our processes at the kilogram scale using equipment similar to and, in many cases, manufactured by the same vendors as our commercial scale equipment.
原型生產線擁有將金屬轉化為成品磁鐵所需的所有設備,這使我們能夠生產原型磁鐵前體材料和成品磁鐵,並使用與該生產線類似的設備(在許多情況下由同一工廠製造)在公斤級上優化我們的製程。
In recent weeks, we made our first magnet from powder to finished magnet and made significant progress on our grain boundary diffusion process. In our accompanying in-house laboratories at Fort Worth, which we commissioned in the quarter, we are now able to validate magnet and magnet precursor materials without enduring lengthy third-party turnaround times. These are critical steps on the road to producing high-quality magnets for our customers.
最近幾週,我們將第一塊磁鐵從粉末製成成品磁鐵,並在晶界擴散過程方面取得了重大進展。在我們於本季度啟用的位於沃斯堡的內部實驗室中,我們現在能夠驗證磁鐵和磁鐵前體材料,而無需忍受漫長的第三方週轉時間。這些是為我們的客戶生產高品質磁鐵的關鍵步驟。
With that, let me turn it over to Ryan to run through our KPIs and our financials for the quarter. Ryan?
接下來,讓我將其交給 Ryan,讓他查看我們本季的 KPI 和財務狀況。瑞安?
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Jim. Moving to slide 6, you will see the impact of the extended downtime on our production in the quarter. We produced 9,084 metric tons of REO and concentrate, about 16% less than a year ago and 19% lower than last quarter, which was the second-highest quarter of production in our history. This unplanned downtime was on top of our usual planned downtime of about one week for plant maintenance.
謝謝,吉姆。轉到投影片 6,您將看到延長的停機時間對本季生產的影響。我們生產了 9,084 噸 REO 和精礦,比去年同期減少約 16%,比上個季度減少 19%,這是我們歷史上產量第二高的季度。這次的計劃外停機是在我們通常計劃的約一周工廠維護停機之外進行的。
So as Jim mentioned, we had significant damage to the rigs in one of our thickeners soon after we completed our planned maintenance shutdown. Unfortunately, without these rigs operating, the whole upstream operation had to shut down. The lower production volumes, some impact of shipment timing, as well as more concentrate been refined to NdPr all combined to reduce REO sales volumes to 5,839 metric tons.
正如吉姆所提到的,在我們完成計劃的維護停機後不久,我們的一台濃縮機的鑽機就遭受了嚴重損壞。不幸的是,如果這些鑽井平台不運行,整個上游作業就不得不停止。產量下降、發貨時間的一些影響以及更多精礦被精煉為镨镨,所有這些因素綜合在一起,使 REO 銷量減少至 5,839 噸。
To give you a sense of the drivers of the sequential sales volume decline of roughly 3,500metric tons, approximately 60% of the decline was due to the lower upstream production. About 30% was due to higher consumption of concentrate into the midstream circuits as NdPr production ramped up. While the remainder was due to shipment timing.
為了讓您了解銷量較上月下降約 3,500 噸的驅動因素,大約 60% 的下降是由於上游產量下降造成的。約 30% 是由於隨著 NdPr 產量的增加,中游迴路的精礦消耗量增加。其餘的則歸因於出貨時間。
The temporarily lower upstream sales volume, along with one-time repair costs, combined to drive rapid descaling in the upstream business and, therefore, much higher than normal production costs in the quarter. As Jim stated, we returned to strong efficient production in June and July.
上游銷售暫時較低,加上一次性維修成本,推動上游業務快速除垢,因此本季生產成本遠高於正常水準。正如吉姆所說,我們在六月和七月恢復了強勁高效的生產。
In fact, we expect Q3, if current production trends remain intact, may be one of our best upstream quarters ever. Finishing off the discussion on the upstream, realized pricing in the quarter was approximately $4,183 per metric ton, in line with the guidance we provided back in early May.
事實上,我們預計,如果當前的生產趨勢保持不變,第三季可能是我們有史以來最好的上游季度之一。結束對上游的討論後,本季的實際定價約為每噸 4,183 美元,與我們 5 月初提供的指導一致。
Moving to our midstream KPIs, NdPr production more than doubled to 272 metric tons in the quarter, while sales of NdPr were in line with the prior quarter's production at 136 tons. NdPr realized pricing in the quarter was roughly $48 per kilogram. All of these metrics were in line with our guidance provided in May.
轉向我們的中游 KPI,本季 NdPr 產量增加了一倍多,達到 272 噸,而 NdPr 銷量與上一季的產量 136 噸一致。本季 NdPr 的定價約為每公斤 48 美元。所有這些指標均符合我們 5 月提供的指導。
Looking forward to Q3, as of today, we would expect concentrate production volumes slightly above our typical levels in a non-shutdown quarter. Sales volumes will benefit from the higher production, but will be partially offset by the higher pull-through of concentrate into the midstream circuits as we ramp NdPr production volume, which, as Jim mentioned, we expect at least a 50% sequential increase in Q3, while sales volumes are expected to be approximately in line with Q2's production of 272 metric tons.
展望第三季度,截至今天,我們預計精礦產量略高於非停產季度的典型水準。銷售將受益於更高的產量,但隨著我們提高 NdPr 產量,將被中游迴路中精礦的更高拉動所部分抵消,正如 Jim 提到的,我們預計第三季度至少會環比增長 50% ,而銷售量預計將與第二季272 噸的產量大致持平。
Recall, as we discussed in May and as you saw this quarter, NdPr sales volumes will lag production volumes by about one quarter on average, partially due to the metallization process and the initial build-out of our separated product sales channels. As for pricing, we would expect Q3 pricing to be down low-single-digit percentages sequentially for both REO and concentrate and NdPr oxide sales.
回想一下,正如我們在 5 月所討論的,正如您在本季度所看到的,NdPr 銷量將平均落後產量約四分之一,部分原因是金屬化工藝和我們獨立產品銷售管道的初步建設。至於定價,我們預計 REO 和精礦以及 NdPr 氧化物銷售的第三季定價將連續降低個位數百分比。
Moving to slide 7. On the far-left side, you can see the impact of the lower concentrate sales volumes to lower NdPr pricing and a longer sales cycle for NdPr sales on our revenue trends. It is important to remember that as we transition from upstream concentrate sales to NdPr oxide and metal sales, the concentrate sales will initially decline more quickly than our NdPr sales will ramp up.
前往投影片 7。重要的是要記住,當我們從上游精礦銷售轉向镨镨氧化物和金屬銷售時,精礦銷售最初下降的速度將快於镨鎢銷售的成長速度。
We are in the heart of this transition period, a critical juncture we have long warned investors about, as we evolve into fully integrated miner and refiner. Unfortunately, the financial impacts of this transition were compounded by additional unplanned downtime and repair costs this quarter, alongside what would have already been a significant investment period.
我們正處於這個過渡時期的中心,這是我們長期以來一直警告投資者的關鍵時刻,因為我們正在發展成為完全一體化的採礦商和煉油商。不幸的是,本季額外的非計劃性停機和維修成本以及本已相當大的投資期,加劇了這一轉變的財務影響。
Moving to the middle and right of the slide, we posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $27.1 million and adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.17 in the quarter due to several factors. First, as we have discussed over the last few quarters, our midstream operation is currently subscale as we ramp production of NdPr and other separated products.
轉到投影片的中間和右側,由於多種因素,我們公佈本季調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2,710 萬美元,調整後的稀釋每股虧損為 0.17 美元。首先,正如我們在過去幾季所討論的那樣,隨著我們提高镨镨和其他分離產品的產量,我們的中游業務目前規模較小。
This quarter, we absorbed the impact of higher-than-target variable costs as we optimize production as well difficult fixed cost absorption at these lower production levels. This temporary period of subscale production resulted in us taking an inventory reserve of $11.8 million in the quarter. This relates to the currently elevated cost of production versus the continued pressure on market prices.
本季度,我們在優化生產的同時吸收了高於目標的可變成本的影響,並在較低的生產水平下吸收了困難的固定成本。這段臨時的小規模生產導致我們本季的庫存儲備為 1,180 萬美元。這與當前生產成本上升與市場價格持續壓力有關。
The second major impact in the quarter was the unplanned downtime, which showed up in the loss production and revenue and also combined to create both higher per-unit production costs and one-time repair expenses hitting the P&L. The concentrate unit cost of production was impacted by inefficiencies in the start-stop, lower fixed cost absorption, and higher repair and maintenance expenses from our planned maintenance shutdown.
本季的第二個主要影響是計劃外停機,這不僅體現在生產和收入損失上,而且還導致單位生產成本上升和一次性維修費用影響損益表。精礦單位生產成本受到啟動停止效率低下、固定成本吸收較低以及計劃維護停工導致的較高維修和保養費用的影響。
This impacts both the concentrate cost of goods sold directly, but also found its way into are separated product production costs in the quarter, given the interconnectedness of our operation. Further, this quarter's earnings were impacted by several million dollars of costs associated with the repair of the thickener rigs, including for equipment, labor, and contractor costs. This impact, of course, we expect to be one-time in nature.
鑑於我們營運的相互關聯性,這不僅影響了直接銷售商品的集中成本,也影響了本季單獨產品的生產成本。此外,本季的收益也受到與濃縮機維修相關的數百萬美元成本的影響,包括設備、勞動力和承包商成本。當然,我們預計這種影響是一次性的。
Lastly, recall that even at these low prices at normal production levels, our concentrate business generates $2,000 to $3,000 of gross margin per ton of REO in concentrate sold. As we ramp the refining operation, we are temporarily trading some level of profitable concentrate sales for temporarily unprofitable NdPr sales in the subscale state.
最後,請記住,即使在正常生產水準下的低價格下,我們的精礦業務每銷售一噸 REO 精礦也能產生 2,000 至 3,000 美元的毛利率。隨著我們擴大煉油業務,我們暫時用一定水準的獲利精礦銷售換取暫時無利可圖的镨镨銷售。
We are also investing working capital dollars into the transition as our sales and tolling channels for separating product is built. But as we have highlighted for the last few quarters, this is why we are being methodical in our midstream production ramp and we remain confident that over the long term, this is an investment we will be happy to have made.
隨著我們用於分離產品的銷售和收費管道的建立,我們也將投入營運資金進行轉型。但正如我們在過去幾季所強調的那樣,這就是為什麼我們在中游生產上有條不紊地進行,我們仍然相信,從長遠來看,這是我們很樂意進行的投資。
Recently, we have made very good progress in optimizing the incremental variable costs we are seeing and, importantly, see a clear path to further optimization of variable costs and rightsizing of fixed cost absorption as we push forward in our ramp over the coming quarters. Importantly, we expect that the combination will reduce our per-unit production costs materially.
最近,我們在優化增量可變成本方面取得了非常好的進展,重要的是,隨著我們在未來幾個季度繼續推進,我們看到了進一步優化可變成本和調整固定成本吸收規模的明確路徑。重要的是,我們預計此次合併將大幅降低我們的單位生產成本。
I want to reemphasize what Jim pointed out. Over the last 8 to 10 weeks, we have returned the upstream to its high-production, low-cost profile you are all used to seeing. We have also made significant progress in midstream optimization, both in terms of cost and production levels.
我想再次強調吉姆指出的內容。在過去的 8 到 10 週內,我們已將上游恢復到你們都習慣看到的高產量、低成本的狀態。我們在中游優化方面也取得了重大進展,無論是在成本還是生產水準方面。
While our midstream cost structure won't be at target for several more quarters as we continue to ramp and react to bottlenecks, we see very clear signs of early success that will bear fruit over time. I would also point out that despite a challenging quarter financially, our balance sheet remains in great shape.
雖然隨著我們繼續加強應對瓶頸,我們的中游成本結構在接下來的幾個季度內都不會達到目標,但我們看到了早期成功的非常明顯的跡象,這些跡象將隨著時間的推移而結出碩果。我還想指出,儘管本季財務充滿挑戰,但我們的資產負債表仍保持良好狀態。
Again we received a $50 million customer prepayment for magnet precursor materials in April and expect another $100 million of additional prepayments over the next year. In addition, we'll earn and, for the majority, expect to receive cash for the various IRA tax credits approaching another $90 million through 2025.
4 月份,我們再次收到了 5,000 萬美元的客戶預付款,用於購買磁鐵前驅體材料,並預計明年將再收到 1 億美元的額外預付款。此外,到 2025 年,我們將賺取並且大多數人預計將收到各種 IRA 稅收抵免的現金,接近 9,000 萬美元。
This provides a further buttress to an already strong balance sheet as we complete Fort Worth and invest in the separated product transition. Following which, we expect operating cash flows to meaningfully improve.
隨著我們完成沃斯堡工廠並投資於獨立的產品轉型,這為本已強勁的資產負債表提供了進一步的支持。此後,我們預計營運現金流將顯著改善。
With that, let me turn it to Michael to give you some of the technical details and updates on the operations. Michael?
接下來,讓我請麥可向您提供一些技術細節和操作更新。麥可?
Michael Rosenthal - Chief Operating Officer
Michael Rosenthal - Chief Operating Officer
Thanks, Ryan. On slide 8, we have a drone shot from above the pit. You could see the upper rim of the pit in the foreground, with the separations pad on the right side. For those of you who haven't seen it before, the very long building on the right is our light rare earths separation facility where we separate NdPr from lanthanum and any remaining [series].
謝謝,瑞安。在幻燈片 8 上,我們有一張無人機從坑上方拍攝的照片。您可以在前景中看到坑的上緣,右側是分隔墊。對於那些以前沒有見過它的人來說,右邊的很長的建築是我們的輕稀土分離設施,我們在這裡將镨镨從鑭和任何剩餘的[系列]中分離出來。
Moving to our operations. Second-quarter performance was severely impacted by rig damage in one of our thickeners that Jim and Ryan described. This issue impacted production for approximately three weeks on top of the planned one week semi-annual maintenance outage during the quarter.
轉向我們的營運。吉姆和瑞安描述的我們的一台濃縮機的設備損壞嚴重影響了第二季度的表現。除了計劃在本季度進行為期一周的半年度維護中斷外,該問題還影響了大約三週的生產。
Our teams, supported by certain contractors and service providers, worked tirelessly and around the clock to restore full operation. We resumed partial operations with some concentrate production only 10 days after the incident. Though for the duration of the repairs and improvements, concentrate quantity, grade, and stability were meaningfully impacted.
我們的團隊在某些承包商和服務提供者的支持下,日以繼夜地不懈努力,以恢復全面運作。事件發生僅 10 天后,我們就恢復了部分運營,並進行了部分精礦生產。儘管在維修和改進期間,精礦數量、品位和穩定性受到了重大影響。
The reduction in upstream production, reduced concentrate sales, and curtailed feedstock for midstream operations for several weeks ran mid-May into early June. This was easily the biggest disruption our operation has sustained in the past seven years.
從 5 月中旬到 6 月初,上游產量減少、精礦銷售減少以及中游業務原料削減持續了數週。這無疑是過去七年來我們的營運遭受的最大的干擾。
While we are not happy about the incident, the creative and coordinated efforts of our team through this challenge were remarkable and inspiring. And we finished the quarter having produced more than 9,000 tons of REO and concentrate.
雖然我們對這一事件並不滿意,但我們團隊在這次挑戰中所做的創造性和協調性的努力是非凡且鼓舞人心的。本季結束時,我們生產了 9,000 多噸 REO 和精礦。
Once normal operations were restored, we accelerated the progress we have been making on all fronts. And it's quite satisfying to see the momentum we are building in many areas.
一旦恢復正常運營,我們就加快了各方面的進展。看到我們在許多領域建立的勢頭非常令人滿意。
Concentrate production per operating hour improved, and June represented one of our best months ever with higher production at higher grade. In addition, we are beginning to realize some of the efficiency gain in our midstream business that I discussed on previous calls.
每作業小時的精礦產量有所提高,六月是我們有史以來最好的月份之一,產量更高,品位更高。此外,我們開始實現我在之前的電話會議中討論過的中游業務的一些效率提升。
Notwithstanding the extra downtime that impacted feedstock for the midstream operations into June, we were able to approximately double NdPr oxide production quarter over quarter. NdPr outside quality has been very good, as is the quality of NdPr metal that is now being consistently delivered to our magnet maker customers.
儘管額外的停機時間影響了 6 月中游業務的原料,但我們仍能夠將镨镨氧化物產量較上季增加約一倍。镨镨 (NdPr) 的外部品質非常好,現在持續交付給我們的磁鐵製造商客戶的镨镨 (NdPr) 金屬的品質也是如此。
Mechanical reliability of our new assets remains one of the biggest challenges in the midstream operation. But we are seeing noticeable improvement, largely corresponding to process maturity and that certain supply chain impediments are resolved.
我們新資產的機械可靠性仍然是中游營運中最大的挑戰之一。但我們看到了明顯的改善,這很大程度上與流程的成熟度和某些供應鏈障礙的解決有關。
As I look ahead to the balance of the year, we will remain focused on uptime and executing certain projects in our upstream business and balancing uptime, process optimization, and production costs in our midstream circuits. Strong concentrate production has continued into Q3.
展望今年剩餘時間,我們將繼續專注於上游業務的正常運作時間和執行某些項目,並平衡中游線路的正常運作時間、流程最佳化和生產成本。第三季精礦產量持續強勁。
We are optimistic that non-capital-related optimizations we have implemented this year have moved out grade recovery curve favorably. These optimizations may free up real estate in our concentrator facility for future improvements and/or growth.
我們樂觀地認為,我們今年實施的非資本相關優化已經順利地走出了品位恢復曲線。這些優化可以釋放我們集中器設施中的空間,用於未來的改進和/或成長。
Separately, we have to upstream 60K-related capital projects that will begin commissioning this quarter. So we wouldn't count on any benefits until next year.
另外,我們還必須推進 6 萬個將於本季開始調試的相關資本項目。因此,直到明年我們才能指望得到任何好處。
The first is a large-scale pilot of alternative flotation equipment. The second is the more sizable investment in our grinding circuit that we hope will ensure a tighter and more favorable grind distribution that should improve recovery and throughput potential.
一是替代浮選設備大規模試辦。第二個是對我們的研磨迴路進行更大規模的投資,我們希望這將確保更緊密和更有利的研磨分佈,從而提高回收率和吞吐量潛力。
In the midstream circuits, with improved mechanicals stability, we are starting to achieve higher availability. As our teams gain experience and confidence, our execution is improving and we are able to work through issues that previously slowed production.
在中游電路中,隨著機械穩定性的提高,我們開始實現更高的可用性。隨著我們的團隊獲得經驗和信心,我們的執行力正在提高,我們能夠解決先前減緩生產的問題。
However, as we have done so, we have identified a handful of process bottlenecks, and have straightforward plans to address many of these through the balance of the year. Our processes to recycle our wastewater is a good example.
然而,正如我們所做的那樣,我們已經確定了一些流程瓶頸,並制定了簡單的計劃來在今年剩餘時間內解決其中的許多瓶頸。我們的廢水回收流程就是一個很好的例子。
These circuits remove impurities similar process wastewater, allowing us to recycle the water and to minimize or eliminate the need for freshwater in our midstream processes. They are therefore critical circuits for water balance, environmental sustainability, and operating cost.
這些迴路可去除類似於製程廢水的雜質,使我們能夠回收水並最大限度地減少或消除中游製程對淡水的需求。因此,它們是水平衡、環境永續性和營運成本的關鍵迴路。
We're not running to their potential. They have proved a modest impediment to higher throughput and uptime. In recent weeks, we have greatly improved their performance in all operating environments, allowing for greater uptime in the rest of the plant in subsequent periods.
我們沒有發揮他們的潛能。事實證明,它們對提高吞吐量和正常運行時間來說是一個適度的障礙。最近幾週,我們大大提高了它們在所有操作環境中的性能,從而在隨後的時期內延長了工廠其他部分的正常運行時間。
We are also laser focused on improving the NdPr recoveries in the leach circuit, where, despite success in cerium rejection, we see a huge opportunity for improved NdPr recovery and even better cerium rejection. Incremental progress will be a major contributor to better leverage of our reagent consumption site-wide.
我們也專注於提高浸出迴路中的 NdPr 回收率,儘管在浸出迴路中取得了成功,但我們看到了提高 NdPr 回收率和更好的鈰排除率的巨大機會。漸進的進展將成為更好地利用我們整個站點的試劑消耗的主要貢獻者。
The impact of this is material, as reagents represents our largest production cost category. Another opportunity was realized in late Q2 and early Q3.
其影響是重大的,因為試劑代表了我們最大的生產成本類別。另一個機會是在第二季末和第三季初實現的。
We completed the replacement of both turbines in our power plant that had reached the end of operating life. This was completed with less interruption to operations than feared and allows us greater power production capability at lower cost.
我們完成了電廠兩台已達使用壽命的渦輪機的更換。這項工作的完成對營運的干擾比人們擔心的要少,並使我們能夠以更低的成本獲得更大的電力生產能力。
We now expect to be able to sustain our current operations on one turbine for a larger portion of time, even as we ramp the chemical plant further, resulting in lower heat rate and better than previously assumed cost performance. We are very pleased with the outcome and congratulate our utilities, E&I, process controls, and commissioning teams on the excellent job.
現在,即使我們進一步提高化工廠的產能,我們仍希望能夠在一台渦輪機上維持目前的運作更長的時間,從而降低熱耗率並比先前假設的成本效益更好。我們對結果非常滿意,並祝賀我們的公用事業、E&I、流程控制和調試團隊的出色工作。
Summing up the above and assuming the continuation of current trends, we are expecting a strong quarter of concentrate production and at least 50% quarter over quarter NdPr oxide production growth in Q3 versus Q2. July results put us on this path.
總結上述內容並假設當前趨勢持續下去,我們預計第三季精礦產量將強勁,且镨镨氧化物產量將比去年同期成長至少 50%(與第二季相比)。七月的結果讓我們走上了這條路。
With that, I will turn it back to Jim.
有了這個,我會把它轉回給吉姆。
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
Thank you, Michael. Let's turn to slide 9 with the recent shot of the magnetics facility at dusk. To wrap up, this was undoubtedly our worst financial performance quarter as a public company. I hope I have always been clear that these kinds of quarters can happen once in a while.
謝謝你,麥可。讓我們轉向幻燈片 9,其中展示了磁力設施在黃昏時的最新照片。總而言之,這無疑是我們作為上市公司財務表現最差的一個季度。我希望我一直都清楚,這種情況偶爾會發生。
But as I said earlier, beyond the surface results, we made a substantial amount of progress. Our team is spectacular and relentless. Notwithstanding MP's unwavering nature, pricing conditions remain outside our control.
但正如我之前所說,除了表面結果之外,我們還取得了實質進展。我們的團隊非常出色且堅持不懈。儘管 MP 的性質堅定不移,但定價條件仍然超出我們的控制範圍。
We do know that no producers are thriving at these prices, not even in China. These market conditions have now destroyed most of the [hope for] projects from just a couple of years back. Despite the efforts and investments of many governments, Chinese control over the vast majority of the supply chain remains.
我們確實知道,沒有任何生產商能夠在這樣的價格下繁榮,即使在中國也是如此。如今,這些市場狀況已經摧毀了幾年前的大部分項目[希望]。儘管許多政府做出了努力和投資,中國仍然控制著絕大多數供應鏈。
Rare earths, therefore, continue to be at the center of a highly charged geopolitical environment. In June, China tightened regulations over its domestic industry. Meanwhile, in the West, leaders pursue new protective measures have their own.
因此,稀土仍然處於高度緊張的地緣政治環境的中心。六月,中國收緊了對國內產業的監管。同時,在西方,領導人也有自己的新保護措施。
And with an election season in full swing, the criticality of our supply chain is one of the very few things upon which politicians in Washington agree. How this shakes out over a quarter or two is always uncertain. But what remains certain is the strategic, irreplaceable value of the platform we are building in MP.
隨著選舉季如火如荼地進行,我們的供應鏈的重要性是華盛頓政界人士同意的極少數事情之一。一兩個季度的情況如何變化始終是不確定的。但可以肯定的是,我們在 MP 中建構的平台具有策略性的、不可替代的價值。
In recent weeks, our team has turned a corner at Mountain Pass both on cost structure and ramp, and we are now positioned to scale volumes and complete our evolution as a fully integrated producer of refined rare earths. The timing aligns well with the customer development activities.
最近幾週,我們的團隊在帕斯山的成本結構和產量上都取得了好轉,我們現在已經做好了擴大產量的準備,並完成了作為完全一體化的精煉稀土生產商的發展。這個時間安排與客戶開發活動非常吻合。
As I mentioned at the outset, we recently added another household name automaker to our growing client list. Between this new agreement and new and expanded agreements tied to our Sumitomo distributorship, a significant portion of our anticipated NdPr production at full capacity is now committed.
正如我在一開始提到的,我們最近在不斷增長的客戶名單中添加了另一家家喻戶曉的汽車製造商。在這項新協議以及與我們的住友經銷權相關的新協議和擴展協議之間,我們預期的镨镨滿載生產的很大一部分現已投入使用。
With our products now qualified by some of the most scrupulous end-use manufacturers and magnet makers outside of China, MP's position as the American champion is now cemented. Our downstream magnetics business is approaching a similar inflection point and, later this year, will return large scale rare earth metal production to the United States for the first time in many decades.
隨著我們的產品現已獲得中國以外一些最嚴格的最終用途製造商和磁鐵製造商的認可,MP 作為美國冠軍的地位現已得到鞏固。我們的下游磁性材料業務正接近類似的轉折點,今年晚些時候,大規模稀土金屬生產將在幾十年來首次返回美國。
In July, Michael and I celebrated the seventh anniversary of the acquisition of the Mountain Pass mine and the founding of MP Materials. We are incredibly proud of the team we've built, the progress we have made, and even more excited about the future. In a geopolitically charged, increasingly electrified world with billions of AI-enabled robots whether on wheels or legs, MP's products, technology, and platform matters. I believe our long-term success is necessary and inevitable.
七月,麥可和我慶祝了收購帕斯山礦和 MP Materials 成立七週年。我們對我們建立的團隊、我們所取得的進步感到無比自豪,對未來更加興奮。在一個充滿地緣政治色彩、日益電氣化的世界裡,有數十億個人工智慧機器人,無論是輪子還是腿,MP 的產品、技術和平台都很重要。我相信我們的長期成功是必要且不可避免的。
With that, we are happy to take your questions. Operator?
因此,我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員?
Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) David Deckelbaum, TD Cowen.
謝謝。 (操作員說明)David Deckelbaum,TD Cowen。
David Deckelbaum - Analyst
David Deckelbaum - Analyst
Thanks, Jim, Ryan, and Michael. Thanks for taking my questions and thanks for all those details. I'm glad to see you guys put this quarter behind you.
謝謝吉姆、瑞安和邁克爾。感謝您提出我的問題並感謝所有這些詳細資訊。我很高興看到你們把這個季度拋在了身後。
I'm curious, Michael, if you can talk a little bit about just this first upstream 60K milestone with the pilot testing around a flotation. That test, I think, is anticipated to begin this quarter in the third quarter. How do you think about that in relation to the impact on your current operations?
我很好奇,Michael,您是否可以談談圍繞發行進行的試點測試的第一個上游 60K 里程碑。我認為該測試預計將於本季第三季開始。您如何看待這對您目前營運的影響?
Michael Rosenthal - Chief Operating Officer
Michael Rosenthal - Chief Operating Officer
Thanks for the question. In terms of this initial test, we don't expect it to have any material impact on the operation. We'd be running a midstream through this equipment to see the performance, but we do expect it to ultimately lead to additive results even as a pilot, and then we can look to scale that if the results are successful.
謝謝你的提問。就此次初步測試而言,我們預計不會對營運產生任何實質影響。我們將透過該設備運行中游來查看性能,但我們確實希望即使作為試點,它最終也能帶來附加結果,然後如果結果成功,我們可以擴大規模。
We've already tried similar equipment, slightly smaller scale, and have been very pleased with the results. The grinding circuit investment that I mentioned is slightly bigger (inaudible) the potential for more temporary interference with the current operation. But like I said, I'm very excited about that one, particularly, next year.
我們已經嘗試過類似的設備,但規模稍小,並且對結果非常滿意。我提到的磨削迴路投資稍微大一些(聽不見),對目前操作造成更多暫時幹擾的可能性。但就像我說的,我對此感到非常興奮,尤其是明年。
David Deckelbaum - Analyst
David Deckelbaum - Analyst
Appreciate the color. Ryan, I'm curious just as we navigate this year of weak prices. I think you guys highlighted still a robust cash position even with the downtime this quarter. I'm just talking about, I think, the $150 million or so of prepayment and I guess some tax receipts that you anticipate. Can you just rehash the timeline and the conditions that you have to meet in order to receive those payments?
欣賞顏色。瑞安,當我們今年價格疲軟時,我很好奇。我認為你們強調即使本季出現停機,現金狀況仍然強勁。我想,我只是在談論大約 1.5 億美元的預付款,我猜還有一些您預計的稅收收入。您能否重新調整時間表以及收到這些付款必須滿足的條件?
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Sure, David. Happy to. As you saw this quarter, we received the first $50 million of that $150 million set of prepayments for the downstream business. The way to think about the upcoming $100 million is that is unlocked by further operational progress on the downstream business as we move towards commercial production of metal in Fort Worth and continue to build up our metalmaking capabilities to support magnet making there.
是的。當然,大衛。高興。正如您在本季看到的,我們收到了下游業務 1.5 億美元預付款中的第一筆 5,000 萬美元。考慮即將到來的1 億美元的方式是,隨著我們邁向沃斯堡金屬的商業化生產,並繼續建立我們的金屬製造能力以支持那裡的磁鐵製造,下游業務的進一步運營進展將解鎖這一目標。
And so we expect to receive the totality of that over the next 12 months. In terms of the incremental dollars that we flagged that are part of the various tax credits that we intend to receive, you saw, actually in Q4 of last year, a receivable of nearly $20 million, which relates to a 45X tax credit which we expect to receive in the not-too-distant future here or upon filing of our 2023 tax return. So that's a pretty near-term receipt.
因此,我們預計在接下來的 12 個月內收到全部資訊。就我們標記的增量美元而言,這是我們打算獲得的各種稅收抵免的一部分,實際上在去年第四季度,應收帳款接近2000 萬美元,這與我們預期的45 倍稅收抵免相關在不久的將來或在提交 2023 年報稅表時收到。所以這是一個相當近期的收據。
The other elements of 45X relate to the ongoing 45X credits that we'll earn via production over the course of this year and next. In addition to that, as we announced, I guess it was last quarter, is the $58.5 million of 48C tax credit for our investment in Fort Worth.
45X 的其他元素與我們將在今年和明年透過製作獲得的持續 45X 積分相關。除此之外,正如我們所宣布的,我猜是上個季度,我們在沃斯堡的投資獲得了 5850 萬美元的 48C 稅收抵免。
We expect to likely receive about $30 million of that in cash next year. And the remainder of that is also available for us to monetize in a variety of different fashions earlier in 2025 time frame. Or we can allow that to play out over a longer period of time on. But suffice to say, we've got a lot of opportunity to continue to support really healthy liquidity and the balance sheet as we invest here.
我們預計明年可能會收到約 3000 萬美元的現金。剩下的部分也可供我們在 2025 年早些時候以各種不同的方式貨幣化。或者我們可以讓這種情況持續更長的一段時間。但可以說的是,當我們在這裡投資時,我們有很多機會繼續支持真正健康的流動性和資產負債表。
David Deckelbaum - Analyst
David Deckelbaum - Analyst
Thanks, guys.
多謝你們。
Operator
Operator
Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.
勞倫斯·亞歷山大,杰弗里斯。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Hi. Good evening. This is Kevin (inaudible) on for Laurence. Thank you for taking my questions. I'm not sure if you can answer the specifics around this. I guess I just wanted to get a sense of maybe the size of the commitment that you have with the automaker that you announced today or maybe the length of time of the agreement? And really, the same for the Department of Defense supply contracts. I mean, just any specifics that you can offer would be helpful. Thank you.
你好。晚安.這是勞倫斯的凱文(聽不清楚)。感謝您回答我的問題。我不確定你是否能回答這個問題的具體情況。我想我只是想了解一下您今天宣布的與汽車製造商的承諾規模或協議的持續時間?事實上,國防部的供應合約也是如此。我的意思是,您可以提供的任何具體細節都會有所幫助。謝謝。
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, sure. It's Ryan; I'll take that. In terms of the OEM commitment, that is a multi-year commitment with deliveries starting this year and ramping through '25 in the following year. We expect over the medium term that this commitment will represent a double-digit percentage of our total targeted output. So it's a pretty significant commitment for us, which we're very excited about.
好,當然。我是瑞安;我會接受的。就 OEM 承諾而言,這是一項多年承諾,交付從今年開始,並在下一年的 25 年期間逐步增加。我們預計,從中期來看,這項承諾將占我們目標總產出的兩位數百分比。因此,這對我們來說是一項非常重要的承諾,我們對此感到非常興奮。
And I think stepping back and taking both this commitment and the DoD purchase agreement -- I mean, contracts, which I'll give you some details about in a moment, I think it really is emblematic of some of the comments that Jim made about the importance of what we're doing.
我認為退後一步,接受這一承諾和國防部採購協議——我的意思是,合同,我稍後會給你一些細節,我認為這確實是吉姆發表的一些評論的象徵。事情的重要性。
I think we're winding to many, many years ago when we started on this mission. The thought that a global automotive OEM would be reaching all the way upstream to directly make this type of commitment was unheard of.
我想我們已經回到了很多很多年前,當我們開始執行這項使命時。全球汽車原始設備製造商將一路深入上游直接做出此類承諾的想法是聞所未聞的。
And so I think that that speaks to the progress that we've made both as MP and the increasing importance of our industry and what we produce. The DoD agreement is a pretty modest agreement. So that was announced by them as well.
因此,我認為這說明了我們作為國會議員所取得的進步以及我們的行業和我們生產的產品的重要性日益增加。國防部協議是一項相當溫和的協議。這也是他們宣布的。
It's about $11 million commitment from them for the National Defense stockpile. But again, emblematic of continued support from Department of Defense, which were very happy to see.
他們承諾為國防儲備投入約 1,100 萬美元。但這再次象徵國防部的持續支持,國防部很高興看到這一點。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Certainly. Thank you. I appreciate that. And I guess as my last question, I guess in terms of the Chinese economy and the weakness there, possible stimulus or puts and takes. Obviously, there's a flow through into pricing. I guess, just curious to get what you guys' take on the economy. Your outlook in the Chinese economy would be helpful. Thank you.
當然。謝謝。我很感激。我想,作為我的最後一個問題,我想就中國經濟及其疲軟而言,可能的刺激措施或看跌期權。顯然,定價有一個流程。我想,只是想知道你們對經濟的看法。您對中國經濟的展望將會有所幫助。謝謝。
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
Sure, yeah. The Chinese economy is still pretty challenging. I think we've been seeing writ large around earnings season this year across corporate America. We see that to property. Everything related to it is very weak. It's really just an overall negative environment with respect to industrial production and consumer spending.
當然,是的。中國經濟仍充滿挑戰。我認為,今年美國企業界在財報季的表現尤其明顯。我們看到了這一點。與之相關的一切都非常微弱。這其實只是工業生產和消費者支出方面的整體負面環境。
So we don't really have any different views than what you've been hearing around the board with respect to what's going on in China. I would say, though, as it relates to the underlying NdPr demand. Anecdotally, we do see Chinese industry growing abroad, particularly in the global South, in South America, sub-Saharan Africa.
因此,對於中國正在發生的事情,我們與大家所聽到的觀點並沒有什麼不同。不過,我想說的是,因為它與潛在的镨镨需求有關。有趣的是,我們確實看到中國工業在海外不斷成長,特別是在南半球、南美洲、撒哈拉以南非洲地區。
So when you think about the pace of what's happening in the Chinese economy, I would say that one mitigant is that Chinese industry is attempting to make up for that with growth around the world, particularly in our space. And so I do think that -- and again, as you know, I always try to caveat these answers with respect to commodity prices.
因此,當你考慮中國經濟的發展速度時,我想說,一個緩解措施是中國工業正在試圖透過世界各地的成長來彌補這一不足,特別是在我們的領域。所以我確實認為——正如你所知,我總是試圖對這些有關大宗商品價格的答案提出警告。
We don't know. But I do think that in the medium to long term, the things that we're seeing continue to show that the medium and long term demand picture is very bright from China all the way around the world.
我們不知道。但我確實認為,從中長期來看,我們所看到的情況繼續表明,從中國到全球,中長期需求前景都非常光明。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Thank you very much.
好的。非常感謝。
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Matt Summerville, D.A. Davidson.
馬特·薩默維爾,D.A.戴維森。
Matt Summerville - Analyst
Matt Summerville - Analyst
Yeah, thanks. A couple of questions. Just back to -- Jim, I'd like to just pick your brain a little bit. What was the criteria you used to make the strategic decision to align yourself with this particular automotive OEM for this agreement?
是的,謝謝。有幾個問題。回到——吉姆,我想聽聽你的想法。您在做出策略決策以與該特定汽車原始設備製造商達成此協議時採用的標準是什麼?
And to Ryan's comment, double digits can mean a lot. Is there a way that you can maybe narrow that down a bit? And more so, also curious as to whether or not this is causing -- panic's maybe too strong a word, but causing other OEMs to come knocking on the door, so to speak, or lining up at the door to [fund you]?
對於瑞安的評論來說,兩位數可能意味著很多。有沒有辦法可以縮小範圍?更重要的是,我也好奇這是否會導致——恐慌這個詞可能太強烈了,但會導致其他原始設備製造商來敲門,可以這麼說,或者在門口排隊[資助你]?
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Sure, Matt. I'll steal that one from Jim quickly. You're right, double digit is pretty broad. I can narrow that down to, say, low double digits. And obviously, we want to respect our customers' wishes and not get into specific details on any individual contract.
當然,馬特。我很快就會從吉姆那裡偷走那個。你是對的,兩位數相當廣泛。我可以將其範圍縮小到低兩位數。顯然,我們希望尊重客戶的意願,而不是涉及任何單獨合約的具體細節。
But I think that as we look around the world, we certainly are seeing a lot of interest in our commodity, as I mentioned. And I think that what we are most focused on is maximizing the realized price that we receive for a product that we believe is incredibly important. And obviously, as we look at contract structure or pricing and all those things that go together, we are going to prioritize customers that are thoughtful over the long term and are looking at this as partners.
但我認為,正如我所提到的,當我們環顧世界時,我們肯定會看到人們對我們的商品很感興趣。我認為我們最關注的是最大化我們認為非常重要的產品的實際價格。顯然,當我們考慮合約結構或定價以及所有這些相關因素時,我們將優先考慮那些考慮長遠並將其視為合作夥伴的客戶。
And so that's certainly what we did with General Motors with the downstream business. That's absolutely what we're doing with other OEM partners on the midstream business. And so it's something that we're certainly very pleased about.
這當然就是我們對通用汽車下游業務所做的事情。這絕對是我們與其他 OEM 合作夥伴在中游業務上所做的事情。所以這確實是我們非常高興的事情。
In terms of other automakers panicking, I wouldn't put it quite at panic at this point. But certainly, there's a whole host of things that we've seen over the course of the last several months that really, I think, reenergized despite all of the headlines and the Wall Street (inaudible) on the electric vehicle trend. We've seen a lot of activity.
就其他汽車製造商的恐慌而言,我目前不會說它非常恐慌。但當然,在過去的幾個月裡,我們看到了很多事情,我認為,儘管所有頭條新聞和華爾街(聽不清楚)都在關注電動車的趨勢,但這些事情確實重新煥發了活力。我們看到了很多活動。
Certainly, the tariff announcement by the current administration, that maybe caused a little bit of -- maybe you can call it panic and in terms of automakers really being interested in what we're doing from the magnetic side on. But overall, we're really pleased to continue to build up our book of customers with blue-chip automakers.
當然,現任政府宣布的關稅可能會引起一點——也許你可以稱之為恐慌,因為汽車製造商確實對我們在磁性方面所做的事情感興趣。但總的來說,我們非常高興能夠繼續與藍籌汽車製造商建立客戶關係。
Matt Summerville - Analyst
Matt Summerville - Analyst
Thank you. And then maybe for Michael, is there any way to talk about, based on the progress you're seeing or you saw in Q2 , where you're tracking thus far in Q3 in your goal relative to that 50% production output increase of NdPr oxide? Is there any way to talk about where you hope to exit the year on a run rate basis in terms of NdPr production?
謝謝。然後,也許對於邁克爾來說,根據您所看到的或您在第二季度看到的進展,您在第三季度迄今為止跟踪的目標相對於镨镨產量增加50% 的目標,有什麼方法可以討論嗎?有沒有辦法談談您希望今年結束時镨镨產量的運行率?
Michael Rosenthal - Chief Operating Officer
Michael Rosenthal - Chief Operating Officer
It's still early, so it's hard to give a clear answer in that. I'd rather not. But I would say that whereas in the past, we saw greater bottlenecks to production, we're now really working on optimizing and balancing the throughput -- sorry, availability of equipment and getting that up and then pushing the throughput further. Whereas in the past, we may have seen more bottlenecks to availability, those are being released. And we expect to see significant improvement.
現在還為時過早,所以很難給出明確的答案。我寧願不要。但我想說,雖然在過去,我們看到了更大的生產瓶頸,但我們現在真正致力於優化和平衡吞吐量——抱歉,設備的可用性並得到提高,然後進一步推動吞吐量。在過去,我們可能會看到更多的可用性瓶頸,但這些瓶頸正在被釋放。我們預計會看到顯著的改善。
The data that July puts us on that path to the 50% growth is probably where I'll leave it, but I do believe there's significant opportunity for continued growth in the fourth quarter. Jim might have (inaudible) that. .
7 月的數據使我們走上了通往 50% 成長的道路,我可能會就此結束,但我確實相信第四季存在持續成長的重大機會。吉姆可能有(聽不清楚)。 。
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
Yeah. The one thing I'd add is I think the reason you're probably sensing a little bit of a shift in tone from us on this is, I think, where we've progressed on understanding and getting our arms around the various moving pieces on increment variable cost. We're at the point, from a cost structure perspective, in the midstream business where getting to our targeted cost structure at this point is more a denominator issue.
是的。我要補充的一件事是,我認為您可能感覺到我們在這方面的語氣發生了一些轉變,我認為是我們在理解和擁抱各種活動方面取得了進展。從成本結構的角度來看,我們正處於中游業務的關鍵階段,此時達到我們的目標成本結構更多的是一個分母問題。
So this is more about pushing forward on our volume ramp up will effectively have the cost structure take care of itself. And so, obviously, Michael talked through some of the steps along the way. But we're very, very pleased to see that progress. And so I think that enables us to be even more tactical in how we approach the ramp here over the course of the year.
因此,這更多的是為了推動我們的銷售成長,這將有效地讓成本結構自行解決。因此,顯然,邁克爾講述了整個過程中的一些步驟。但我們非常非常高興看到這項進展。因此,我認為這使我們能夠在這一年中更有策略地接近這裡的坡道。
And so as Michael said, it's early to give specific numbers on volume because there are so many different ways to get to a particular volume number. We want to get there in the most efficient way possible, which is consistent with what we told you over the last couple of quarters.
正如麥可所說,現在給出具體的銷售數字還為時過早,因為有很多不同的方法可以獲得特定的銷售數字。我們希望以盡可能最有效的方式實現這一目標,這與我們在過去幾季告訴您的一致。
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
And then I'll just add since -- to do the trifecta here, so you hear from all three of us on this one. I think -- obviously, this tough quarter numbers aside, to see the scale of this ramp happening in the -- ordinarily, if you just look at our industry or similar industries, when you're ramping up a multi-billion-dollar refinery, these things take time. And ordinarily, if you were looking at this with respect to another business that might not have an existing operation within it, you'd obviously see numbers in ramp and you wouldn't think much of it.
然後我就補充一下——在這裡完成三連勝,這樣你就可以聽到我們三個人關於這一點的意見。我認為,顯然,撇開這個艱難的季度數字不談,通常情況下,如果你看看我們的行業或類似行業,當你正在擴建一座價值數十億美元的煉油廠時,就會看到這種成長的規模。通常情況下,如果你考慮的是另一個可能沒有現有業務的企業,你顯然會看到數字正在成長,你不會想太多。
And so the fact that the scale of this ramp is happening as impressively as it is, with Michael on the team and Mountain Pass, I think, is -- I'm very pleased of what's happening out there. And I really do I think, again, tough quarters number aside -- and obviously, we have to keep executing. But this is a really, really impressive ramp that is happening. And obviously, hopefully, we expect that to remain the case throughout the rest of the year.
因此,事實上,這個坡道的規模令人印象深刻,邁克爾和帕斯山團隊都在,我認為,我對那裡發生的事情感到非常高興。我真的認為,拋開艱難的季度數字不談——顯然,我們必須繼續執行。但這確實是一個令人印象深刻的斜坡正在發生。顯然,我們希望這種情況在今年剩餘時間都能維持下去。
Matt Summerville - Analyst
Matt Summerville - Analyst
Great. Thank you, guys.
偉大的。感謝你們。
Operator
Operator
George Gianarikas, Canaccord Genuity.
喬治‧賈納里卡斯 (George Gianarikas),Canaccord Genuity。
George Gianarikas - Analyst
George Gianarikas - Analyst
Hi, everyone. Good afternoon and thank you for taking my questions. I guess I just want to start with -- I was wondering if the song choice was intentional during the waiting period. I assume -- I'm old enough to know what it was. And hopefully, things will only get better. So my first question --
大家好。下午好,感謝您回答我的問題。我想我只是想開始——我想知道在等待期間選擇的歌曲是否是故意的。我想——我已經夠大了,知道那是什麼。希望事情只會變得更好。所以我的第一個問題——
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
I'll take that real quick. Just so you know, that's -- I appreciate you recognizing the song. That is a song about resilience and powering forward. And so we're very methodical about our song selection, as you know, every quarter.
我會盡快接受。想讓你知道,那就是——我很感謝你認出這首歌。這是一首關於堅韌和前進的歌曲。因此,正如您所知,我們每個季度都會非常有條理地選擇歌曲。
So I think one of these days, we'll have to put together a Spotify list of all of our pre-quarter songs so you have them in one place. But that was a deliberate selection.
所以我想有一天,我們必須將我們所有季前歌曲的 Spotify 清單放在一起,這樣你就可以把它們放在一個地方。但這是經過深思熟慮的選擇。
George Gianarikas - Analyst
George Gianarikas - Analyst
Nice, nice. So maybe to focus on the OEM decision for oxide. I'm curious as to what -- if you are the ones who drove the decision around oxide sales versus magnets sales or is that something that the OEM chose?
好好。因此,也許應該關注 OEM 對氧化物的決策。我很好奇——如果你是推動氧化物銷售與磁鐵銷售決策的人,或者這是 OEM 選擇的東西?
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Sure, George. It's Ryan. That's something that is mutual, I would say. The reality, though, is that with our current design capacity in Fort Worth, we're fully committed there at this point. And so to bring another significant automotive OEM on would entail incremental capital investment there, which is something that we do look very hard at.
當然,喬治。是瑞安。我想說,這是相互的。但現實是,憑藉我們目前在沃斯堡的設計能力,我們目前已完全致力於那裡。因此,引入另一家重要的汽車原始設備製造商將需要增加那裡的資本投資,這是我們非常重視的事情。
But obviously, our focus at this point is delivering for GM. I think the thing to think about is the size of our upstream business, at least for the near and medium term, is many, many multiples of the size of the downstream business. And so what we're focused on is ensuring, as I said, aligning ourselves with partners that may be long-term partners across all pieces of the business over the course of time.
但顯然,我們目前的重點是為通用汽車提供服務。我認為要考慮的是我們上游業務的規模,至少在近期和中期,是下游業務規模的很多很多倍。因此,正如我所說,我們的重點是確保與隨著時間的推移可能成為業務各個領域的長期合作夥伴的合作夥伴保持一致。
But certainly, we need to prioritize -- given we've done a great job on the downstream in terms of sales, we need to prioritize continuing to one push forward in line with the right partners on the midstream.
但當然,我們需要優先考慮——鑑於我們在下游的銷售方面做得很好,我們需要優先考慮繼續與中游的合適合作夥伴一起前進。
George Gianarikas - Analyst
George Gianarikas - Analyst
And do you know, perchance, who will be making the magnets for that OEM partner?
您是否知道誰將為該 OEM 合作夥伴製造磁鐵?
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
I wouldn't want to comment specifically. I think what I'd say about that in general, though, is we have seen some continued development in the market for ex-China magnet production in broader Southeast Asia. And so that opens up opportunities for us, both to sell directly to those existing and future magnet makers as well as, of course, these types of agreements where we're providing the material directly to the end customer.
我不想具體評論。不過,我認為總的來說,我們已經看到了更廣泛的東南亞地區中國以外的磁鐵生產市場的持續發展。因此,這為我們提供了機會,既可以直接向現有和未來的磁鐵製造商銷售,當然也可以簽訂這些類型的協議,我們直接向最終客戶提供材料。
George Gianarikas - Analyst
George Gianarikas - Analyst
Thank you. Maybe as the last question, someone asked a previous question the state of Chinese demand. But I'm curious if you could share your thoughts around Chinese supply. Clearly, some of the major refiners are losing money at current levels.
謝謝。也許作為最後一個問題,有人問了一個關於中國需求狀況的問題。但我很好奇你是否能分享一下你對中國供應的看法。顯然,一些主要煉油廠在目前的水平上正在虧損。
Just curious as to, Jim, what your thoughts on the sustainability of that and whether or not we could see a little bit of a supply -- at least less growth or a supply reduction going forward. What are your thoughts on what exactly is happening there? Thank you.
只是好奇,吉姆,你對這種可持續性的看法是什麼,以及我們是否可以看到一點供應——至少是增長放緩或供應減少。您對那裡到底發生了什麼事有什麼看法?謝謝。
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
Sure, sure. Well, with my usual caveat that it is always very difficult to read the tea leaves in China, what I would say is that it's very clear that there's losses and, I think, there's a struggle in the supply chain there. Because nobody is doing well in this environment with prices where they are. That is very clear.
一定一定。好吧,我通常會警告說,在中國閱讀茶葉總是非常困難,但我想說的是,很明顯存在損失,而且我認為那裡的供應鏈有困難。因為在這種環境下,沒有人能以目前的價格做得很好。這是非常清楚的。
I do think that -- there were some recent headlines about China cracking down on illegal production. And I think that there's intent of the government to continue with, frankly, what's been going on for the last few years to crack down on illegal behavior inside and outside the country.
我確實認為,最近有一些關於中國打擊非法生產的頭條新聞。坦白說,我認為政府有意繼續實施過去幾年的舉措,打擊國內外的非法行為。
And I do think that, when you think about having a fully burdened cost of production, when you get a lot of that out, that is constructive for pricing and competence and, frankly, better for the environment. And so I think in the backdrop of what is clearly a challenge to macro environment, there are a lot of good trends that suggest that when we see the upcycle, that it should be good.
我確實認為,當你考慮完全承擔生產成本時,當你得到很多成本時,這對定價和能力是有建設性的,坦白說,對環境也更好。因此,我認為,在宏觀環境明顯面臨挑戰的背景下,有許多良好的趨勢表明,當我們看到上行週期時,它應該是好的。
And then lastly and just going back to what I said earlier, we do continue to see substantial international investment from major Chinese downstream producers. I think we don't see those -- in the US, we see a lot of headlines, obviously, about our OEMs and our market. But let's not forget, obviously, China is the largest auto market in the world. But then there's the rest of the world, and you're seeing real penetration there from the Chinese OEMs and around factories and localized production.
最後,回到我之前所說的,我們確實繼續看到來自中國主要下游生產商的大量國際投資。我認為我們沒有看到這些——在美國,我們顯然看到了很多關於我們的原始設備製造商和我們的市場的頭條新聞。但我們不要忘記,顯然,中國是世界上最大的汽車市場。但在世界其他地區,您會看到中國原始設備製造商以及工廠和本地化生產的真正滲透。
And so I do think when we think about the upstream supply, the Chinese industry has to continue to supply its producers going around the world. But at some point, you do cross that threshold where they're not going to want to have big upstream losses to be supplying local competitors sitting next to them in factories that they have.
因此,我確實認為,當我們考慮上游供應時,中國工業必須繼續向世界各地的生產商供應產品。但在某些時候,你確實會跨過這個門檻,他們不希望在自己擁有的工廠中為毗鄰他們的當地競爭對手供貨而遭受巨大的上游損失。
So I do think again, with, always, the caveat that nobody knows about prices, I do think that the pendulum -- which, obviously, was very excited a couple of years ago one way has swung too far the other way. And it should recover at some point.
所以我確實再次思考,總是警告說沒有人知道價格,我確實認為鐘擺——顯然,幾年前,一個方向非常興奮,但已經朝另一個方向擺動得太遠了。它應該會在某個時候恢復。
George Gianarikas - Analyst
George Gianarikas - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Lawrence Winder, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
勞倫斯·溫德,美銀美林。
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Yeah. Thanks, operator. It's Lawson Winder at Bank of America. Thanks very much and thanks for the presentation today. I wanted to ask just to get your thoughts on the magnetic business. And with commercial production being targeted for the end of this year, how do you think about becoming EBITDA positive?
是的。謝謝,接線生。我是美國銀行的勞森溫德。非常感謝並感謝您今天的演講。我想問只是想了解一下您對磁性業務的看法。鑑於商業化生產的目標是在今年年底,您如何看待 EBITDA 為正值?
Is that something that will happen this year? Do you think about that happening in '25? And then, what's the ramp on the EBITDA contribution from the magnetic business?
今年會發生這樣的事情嗎?你認為25年發生的事嗎?那麼,磁性業務對 EBITDA 的貢獻是多少?
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Hi. Sure, this is Ryan. I'll take that. We do expect, once we are producing product in the downstream business -- and just to clarify in terms of the production targets, we aim to be in production with precursor products with metal at the end of this year. We're still targeting production of magnets in the end of 2025.
你好。當然,這是瑞安。我會接受的。我們確實預計,一旦我們在下游業務中生產產品,並且只是為了澄清生產目標,我們的目標是在今年年底開始生產金屬前驅產品。我們的目標仍然是在 2025 年底實現磁鐵的生產。
But in the downstream business, when we do start production -- and so I think the fair read through is for 2025. We absolutely do expect a positive EBITDA contribution from that business nearly immediately as we bring it on. Certainly, we've been investing in that business over the last several years and several quarters.
但在下游業務中,當我們開始生產時,我認為公平的解讀是 2025 年。當然,我們在過去幾年和幾個季度一直在投資該業務。
And you've seen, within some of our G&A and R&D type of line items on the P&L, increased investments there. But we do expect, as we start making commercial product there, to be both gross profit and nicely EBITDA positive in that business.
您已經看到,在損益表上的一些一般管理費用和研發類型的行項目中,投資有所增加。但我們確實預計,當我們開始在那裡生產商業產品時,該業務的毛利和 EBITDA 都將達到正值。
In terms of your question on ramp and timing, we haven't gotten into specific details there. As you'd imagine, with any type of launch of a new product and new process not too dissimilar to the midstream operation, we will take time to reach our full targeted throughput. And so we expect to embark on that very methodically as well.
關於你關於斜坡和時間的問題,我們還沒有討論具體細節。正如您所想像的那樣,任何類型的新產品和新流程的推出都與中游營運不太相似,我們需要時間才能達到我們的全部目標吞吐量。因此,我們也希望能夠非常有條理地進行這項工作。
And so that will be -- of course, reaching our targeted throughput of 1,000 tons at (inaudible)magnets on will be over a multi-year period.
當然,要在(聽不清楚)磁鐵上達到我們 1,000 噸的目標吞吐量將需要多年時間。
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
And I would just add -- let me just add, particularly, given our tough quarter that hopefully is now behind us after this call. But as a reminder, given that question that -- when we think about Fort Worth, a little over two years ago, that was a grassy field. And this is a highly complex product.
我想補充一點——讓我補充一點,特別是考慮到我們艱難的季度,希望在這次電話會議之後,我們已經過去了。但提醒一下,考慮到這個問題——當我們想到兩年多前的沃斯堡時,那還是一片草地。這是一個高度複雜的產品。
And so the team has been executing really well. And to think that now, we're in this place where, yeah, we're going to be EBITDA positive so quickly, building something from scratch going into some business that is brand new for us and, frankly, the West is really remarkable. So we're moving as quickly as we can on that front.
所以團隊執行得非常好。想想現在,我們正處於這樣一個地方,是的,我們很快就會實現 EBITDA 為正值,從頭開始建立一些對我們來說全新的業務,坦白說,西方真的很了不起。因此,我們正在這方面盡快採取行動。
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Yeah. Great point, Jim. Thanks for that. And then also thinking about that 2025 from a CapEx point of view, obviously, it's early and I know you guys probably aren't prepared to provide specific guidance. But just directionally thinking about what you provided for guidance for '24, can you perhaps speak to the rough magnitude and direction of the CapEx move, like for '24 to '25?
是的。說得好,吉姆。感謝那。然後從資本支出的角度考慮 2025 年,顯然現在還為時過早,我知道你們可能不准備提供具體的指導。但是,只要定向思考您為 24 年提供的指導,您是否可以談談資本支出變動的粗略規模和方向,例如 24 到 25 年?
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
Yeah. I think it's early for us to get into any 2025 discussion. Obviously, as you would expect, we are laser focused on return on invested capital and ensuring that we've got a robust and healthy balance sheet. But at this point, it's early to talk about 2025.
是的。我認為現在討論 2025 年的問題還為時過早。顯然,正如您所期望的那樣,我們非常關注投資資本回報率,並確保我們擁有穩健的資產負債表。但現在談 2025 年還為時過早。
We're halfway through '24. And you've seen our results from a capital deployment perspective there. And what I would say is that we gave a range of [200 to 250] in CapEx for 2024. And just looking at the progress to date, we're likely coming in at the low end of that, certainly with our focus on trying to be as capital efficient as possible in the current pricing environment.
24 年已經過半了。您已經從資本部署的角度看到了我們的結果。我想說的是,我們給出的 2024 年資本支出範圍為 [200 到 250]。環境下盡可能提高資本效率。
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Lawson Winder - Analyst
Okay. Thank you very much.
好的。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.
比爾彼得森,摩根大通。
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for providing all the details. A few questions. So first, coming to the -- back to the magnet discussions. So discussed commissioning the prototype production. I guess, can you provide additional color on the progress thus far?
是的,下午好。感謝您提供所有詳細資訊。幾個問題。首先,回到磁鐵的討論。於是討論了試製樣機的製作。我想,您能否提供有關迄今為止進展的更多資訊?
Have you been producing material that are meeting any initial customer specifications or expectations? And then maybe perhaps you could shed some light on the next steps for the next few quarters in terms of optimizing performance in manufacturing scale-up?
您生產的材料是否符合任何初始客戶規格或期望?然後,也許您可以闡明未來幾季在優化製造規模擴大績效方面的後續步驟?
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Sure. I'll try to give you some color there. I think I would split the discussion on progress and process development into a conversation around metal versus a conversation around magnets. We discussed, I think it was last quarter or quarter before, a successful commercial scale pilot of our metal making technology, energy and equipment in a pilot facility.
當然。我會盡力給你一些顏色。我想我會將關於進展和工藝開發的討論分為圍繞金屬的對話和圍繞磁鐵的對話。我認為是在上個季度或前一個季度,我們討論了在試點設施中對我們的金屬製造技術、能源和設備進行成功的商業規模試點。
That is what we're bringing to bear in the Dallas, Fort Worth, facility by the end of this year. And so we feel very good about that, given the fact that we proven out our approach to that.
這就是我們將於今年年底在達拉斯沃斯堡工廠實現的目標。因此,鑑於我們已經證明了我們的方法,我們對此感覺非常好。
As it relates to magnets specifically, I think the beauty of building this business from scratch is that we've been able to engage with our customer, I think, in a very thoughtful way to think about commercialization of this from the very get-go. And so from our perspective, thinking about the types of magnets that we'll produce, the mix of magnets, the number of SKUs, the performance characteristics, et cetera.
由於它與磁鐵具體相關,我認為從頭開始建立這項業務的美妙之處在於,我們能夠以非常深思熟慮的方式與我們的客戶互動,從一開始就考慮這項業務的商業化。因此,從我們的角度來看,考慮我們將生產的磁鐵類型、磁鐵的組合、SKU 的數量、性能特徵等等。
And we've been focused on ensuring that we are biting off what we expect to be able to chew here in the near term. And so we are absolutely not approaching this from the perspective of taking on 100 different SKUs. We're thinking about this absolutely from being able to commercialize rapidly.
我們一直致力於確保我們能夠在短期內咬住我們期望能夠咀嚼的東西。因此,我們絕對不會從採用 100 個不同 SKU 的角度來解決這個問題。我們絕對是從能夠快速商業化的角度來考慮這個問題的。
What we've seen from the pilot production facility so far is -- and again, I don't really want to pat ourselves on the back too much on this. But we have gone from metal to a finished magnet at performance characteristics that we're pretty happy with already in this plant.
到目前為止,我們從試點生產設施中看到的是——再說一次,我真的不想在這件事上過度沾沾自喜。但我們已經從金屬轉向成品磁鐵,其性能特徵我們對這家工廠已經非常滿意。
And so when we talk about being in production with magnets at the end of 2025, we get this question a lot. How are you going to be able to do that? Are you going to be bidding spec? And so if we're already making magnets at the pilot plant, clearly, we're working on dialing in all of those processes, our process development, and technology starting now through the end of next year to be sure that we're ready to produce at commercial scale for GM.
因此,當我們談論 2025 年底使用磁鐵進行生產時,我們經常會遇到這個問題。你怎樣才能做到這一點?您要投標規格嗎?因此,如果我們已經在試點工廠生產磁鐵,那麼很明顯,我們正在努力從現在到明年年底開始調整所有這些流程、我們的流程開發和技術,以確保我們做好準備為通用汽車進行商業規模生產。
It's not lost on us that the automotive supply chain is not the easiest to qualify into. And so that also explains part of the significant hiring that we've had done in Fort Worth to ensure that we're ready for qualification, feedback, et cetera.
我們並沒有忘記,汽車供應鏈並不是最容易獲得資格的。因此,這也解釋了我們在沃斯堡進行的重要招募的一部分,以確保我們為資格認證、回饋等做好準備。
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Yeah, thanks for that. Next question is on robotics. And I know -- I think your entry song last quarter was around robotics. But you have discussed on a few quarters of just being an area for growth. But I guess, have you begun direct discussions with any companies in the robotics value chain or magnet suppliers in that space?
是的,謝謝你。下一個問題是關於機器人技術的。我知道——我認為你上季度的入門歌曲是圍繞著機器人技術的。但您已經討論了幾個季度的成長領域。但我想,您是否已開始與機器人價值鏈中的任何公司或該領域的磁鐵供應商進行直接討論?
I guess, thinking about potential supply agreement, given you spoke to the OEM one earlier and you also spoke earlier that some of your -- I guess, a large chunk of your volumes are going to eventually be spoken for. Just thoughts around what could happen in that space.
我想,考慮到潛在的供應協議,考慮到您早些時候與 OEM 進行過交談,而且您之前也談到過,您的一些——我想,您的很大一部分銷量最終將被使用。只是思考那個空間中可能發生的事情。
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
Sure. And great question. I spend a lot of time thinking about this because as we look around at all the headlines and investment that are going into AI and now, in robotics, what they call physical AI, there's no question that there's a lot of excitement in this area.
當然。這是一個很好的問題。我花了很多時間思考這個問題,因為當我們環顧所有進入人工智慧領域的頭條新聞和投資時,現在,在機器人技術領域,也就是他們所說的物理人工智慧領域,毫無疑問,這個領域有很多令人興奮的事情。
And so we expect this to be a gamechanger demand stream. Obviously -- and I hope I've said this thoughtfully the last couple of quarters when we've discussed this, obviously, this a few years down the line as far as something that is of scale. I mean -- but I would say that this is all happening so fast.
因此,我們預計這將成為改變遊戲規則的需求流。顯然——我希望在過去幾個季度我們討論這個問題時我已經深思熟慮地說了這一點,顯然,就規模而言,這是幾年後的事情。我的意思是——但我想說這一切發生得太快了。
The advancements that we're seeing out there -- and obviously, you can follow a lot of this stuff yourself. It's pretty remarkable. And without mentioning whether or not we've had discussions with a particular robotics company or producer or whatever, certainly, you can look at who the leaders are. And obviously, I would say one of the most notable leaders out there that is talking about this is certainly Tesla with Optimus.
我們所看到的進步——顯然,您可以自己關注其中的許多內容。這是相當了不起的。不用說我們是否與特定的機器人公司或生產商或其他任何人進行過討論,當然,你可以看看誰是領導者。顯然,我想說,談論這個問題的最著名的領導者之一肯定是特斯拉和擎天柱。
And if -- we've seen discussion that Musk believes that that will lead to $30 trillion of Tesla market cap. And we're talking about 10 billion or 20 billion humanoid robots. And what I would say is if you believe that that is one-tenth directionally correct, one-twentieth directionally correct, it is a gamechanger for rare earth magnetics, multiples to what EVs were.
如果——我們已經看到馬斯克認為這將導致特斯拉市值達到 30 兆美元的討論。我們正在談論 100 億或 200 億個人形機器人。我想說的是,如果你相信這是十分之一的方向正確,二十分之一的方向正確,那麼它就是稀土磁學的遊戲規則改變者,是電動車的數倍。
Because there's typically two to five times the amount of rare earth magnet content in a humanoid robot than there would be in an EV. And then we're talking about many multiples of potential production. Again, this is all long term, but this is happening so fast that it's really exciting. But again, I caveat it with this is something that is a few years out.
因為人形機器人中的稀土磁鐵含量通常是電動車中的兩到五倍。然後我們談論的是潛在產量的許多倍。再說一次,這都是長期的,但它發生得如此之快,真是令人興奮。但我再次警告,這是幾年後的事。
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Bill Peterson - Analyst
Understood. Thanks again.
明白了。再次感謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Benjamin Kallo, Baird.
謝謝。班傑明卡洛,貝爾德。
Davis Sunderland - Analyst
Davis Sunderland - Analyst
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. This is David Sunderland on for Ben. Thank you for sneaking me in here at the end. Just to rewind and maybe at all the way back to beginning. Jim, in your prepared remarks, you talked about NdPr production costs coming down materially over the next couple of quarters.
大家好。午安.這是替補本的大衛桑德蘭。謝謝你最後偷偷帶我來這裡。只是倒帶,也許一直回到開頭。吉姆,在您準備好的發言中,您談到了镨镨生產成本在未來幾季將大幅下降。
I'm just wondering if you or Michael could give some color as to what materially means, maybe if we should expect a linear decline or step changes, and anything you can say qualitatively about the levers for this cost improvement. Thanks, guys.
我只是想知道您或邁克爾是否可以就實際意義給出一些說明,也許我們是否應該預期線性下降或階躍變化,以及您可以定性地描述這種成本改善的槓桿。多謝你們。
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
I am going to hand that one to my CFO. I'll tap out of that.
我將把這個交給我的財務長。我會從中挖掘出來。
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Ryan Corbett - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, no. I'm happy to take it. We made a couple of comments on this. And I think the important thing to think about in terms of our progression on the cost structure or is that we talked about, for the last couple of quarters, really getting our arms around the incremental variable costs and the items that were driving that, and ensuring that we were not ramping in the face of very suboptimal incremental variable costs.
是的,不。我很高興接受它。我們對此發表了一些評論。我認為,在成本結構的進展方面需要考慮的重要事情是,或者說我們在過去幾個季度中討論過,真正關注增量可變成本以及推動這一成本的項目,並確保我們不會在增量變動成本非常次優的情況下增加產量。
One important thing that we've found over the last quarter or so is really getting our arms around that. And so we're not where we want to be. But I think about it as -- when we started to ramp the plan, it was trying to figure out where the pins are. Now, we know exactly where the pins are; we just need to knock them down.
我們在上個季度左右發現的一件重要的事情是我們確實在努力解決這個問題。所以我們還沒有達到我們想要的目標。但我認為,當我們開始推進計劃時,我們試圖找出關鍵點在哪裡。現在,我們確切地知道了引腳的位置;我們只需要擊倒他們即可。
And so we know what we need to execute on. And the team is working tirelessly to execute on them as it relates to the variable costs. And so what that really leaves us with is -- with the data that we've seen on a circuit-by-circuit basis over the last several months, what this becomes is a denominator thing.
所以我們知道我們需要執行什麼。由於涉及可變成本,團隊正在不知疲倦地執行它們。因此,真正留給我們的是——根據過去幾個月我們逐一電路看到的數據,這變成了一個分母的事情。
This is really about ensuring that we are able to maintain the proper uptime. And then as we check that box, continue to push throughput and rinse and repeat and bring more denominator into that equation. Because that's going to be really what gets us to our targeted cost structure. And so a lot of it really depends on exactly what the volumes are and exactly how we get there.
這實際上是為了確保我們能夠維持適當的正常運作時間。然後,當我們選中該框時,繼續提高吞吐量並進行沖洗和重複,並將更多的分母帶入方程式。因為這才是我們實現目標成本結構的真正原因。因此,這很大程度上取決於具體的銷售以及我們如何實現這一目標。
And so it's tough to give you a ton of specifics other than in all the scenarios that we've modeled out, we absolutely, from what we see now, believe that as we drive volume towards our targeted throughput, we will get to our targeted cost structure. It's just a matter of us continuing to execute over the next several quarters.
因此,除了我們已經建模的所有場景之外,很難向您提供大量細節,從我們現在所看到的情況來看,我們絕對相信,當我們將數量推向目標吞吐量時,我們將達到我們的目標成本結構。這只是我們在接下來的幾季繼續執行的問題。
Davis Sunderland - Analyst
Davis Sunderland - Analyst
Thank, Ryan. Appreciate it, guys.
謝謝,瑞安。非常感謝,夥計們。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And I would now like to hand the call back over to Mr. Litinsky for any final comments.
謝謝。現在我想將電話轉回利廷斯基先生以徵求最終意見。
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
James Litinsky - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Founder
Yes. Thank you, and thank you, everyone. And I guess I will officially say good riddance to this Q2. And I would say for those of us who spend a lot of time on these things, I would say there are quarters that are -- there are bad quarters that are bad, and then there are bad quarters have a lot of good in them.
是的。謝謝你們,也謝謝大家。我想我會正式告別這個第二季。我想說,對於我們這些在這些事情上花費大量時間的人來說,我想說的是,有些地方是——有些地方很糟糕,有些地方卻有很多好處。
And I would put this in the latter category. We really responded extraordinarily well to some unanticipated downtime, and things are really humming. And we feel very good about the progress that we made last quarter, that we're making this quarter, and that we're excited to talk to you next quarter . So thanks, everyone.
我會把它歸為後者。我們確實對一些意外的停機反應非常好,而且事情確實很順利。我們對上個季度和本季的進展感到非常滿意,並且很高興能在下個季度與您交談。謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This will conclude the MP Materials second-quarter 2024 earnings call and webcast. You may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝。 MP Materials 2024 年第二季財報電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。