Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Lumen Technologies 舉行了 2024 年第二季財報電話會議,討論了他們對人工智慧經濟成長的支點、成本削減計劃、財務成就、網路統一和人工智慧成長機會。

他們專注於人工智慧和數位平台,利用光纖網路推動大眾市場的成長。該公司正在投資轉型和成本優化,並計劃對網路交易進行額外投資。

他們預計交易將帶來大量現金流入,並專注於推動人工智慧市場的成長。公司對他們未來的成長和公司轉型的進展持樂觀態度。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to Lumen Technologies second-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator instructions) And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    您好,歡迎參加 Lumen Technologies 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Breen, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Jim, please go ahead.

    我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁吉姆布林 (Jim Breen)。吉姆,請繼續。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Lumen Technologies second-quarter 2024 earnings call. On the call today are Kate Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Stansbury, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    大家下午好,感謝您參加 Lumen Technologies 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的是總裁兼執行長凱特·約翰遜 (Kate Johnson);克里斯‧史坦斯伯里(Chris Stansbury),執行副總裁兼財務長。

  • Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our Safe Harbor statement on slide 1 of our second quarter 2024 presentation, which notes that this conference call may include forward-looking statements subject to certain risks and uncertainties. All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements and the risk factors in our SEC filings.

    在我們開始之前,我需要提請您注意我們 2024 年第二季度簡報投影片 1 上的安全港聲明,其中指出本次電話會議可能包括受某些風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性聲明。所有前瞻性陳述應與我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的警示性陳述和風險因素結合起來考慮。

  • We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures, which can be found in our earnings press release. In addition, certain metrics discussed today exclude costs for special items as detailed in the earnings materials, which can be found on our Investor Relations section of our Lumen website.

    我們將指的是與最具可比性的公認會計原則(GAAP)指標相一致的某些非公認會計原則(non-GAAP)財務指標,這些指標可以在我們的收益新聞稿中找到。此外,今天討論的某些指標不包括盈利材料中詳細說明的特殊項目的成本,這些材料可以在 Lumen 網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Kate.

    這樣,我就把電話轉給凱特。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Jim. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining. I'm cognizant of the timing of this call because over the past two days, the markets have been a bit noisy with lots of uncertainty about the health of the economy in the next 6 to 12 to 18 months. In contrast, the announcement we made last night about Lumen's pivot to growth is all about building critical infrastructure to support the AI economy for the next several decades into.

    謝謝,吉姆。大家下午好。感謝您的加入。我知道這次電話會議的時機,因為在過去兩天裡,市場有點吵鬧,未來 6 到 12 到 18 個月的經濟健康狀況存在著許多不確定性。相較之下,我們昨晚宣布的有關 Lumen 轉向成長的公告完全是為了建設關鍵基礎設施,以支援未來幾十年的人工智慧經濟。

  • And to net it out, there are three key takeaways from our call today. First, movement enterprise operational turnaround is progressing well with continued sales momentum across our growth portfolio and further improvement in customer satisfaction. We are also executing extremely well in our Quantum Fiber business.

    為了弄清楚這一點,我們今天的電話會議得出了三個關鍵結論。首先,隨著我們的成長組合的持續銷售動能和客戶滿意度的進一步提高,運動企業營運週轉進展順利。我們的量子光纖業務也執行得非常好。

  • Second, Lumen has been anointed as the trusted network for AI by some of the most important technology companies on earth with over $5 billion in major partnerships in to date and visibility to nearly $7 billion more in opportunities, we see the market for Lumen's private connectivity fabric as providing a major positive momentum shift for this company.

    其次,Lumen 已被地球上一些最重要的科技公司指定為值得信賴的人工智慧網絡,迄今為止,其主要合作夥伴關係已超過50 億美元,並且還擁有近70 億美元的機會,我們看到了Lumen私人連接的市場織物為該公司提供了重大的積極動力轉變。

  • Third, given our success in forging these partnerships, we're seeing a significant improvement in our overall liquidity profile further securing our ability to transform the company and pivot to growth.

    第三,鑑於我們在建立這些合作夥伴關係方面取得了成功,我們看到我們的整體流動性狀況顯著改善,進一步確保了我們實現公司轉型和轉向成長的能力。

  • Let me give some detail on the operational turnaround part first. As I've described on prior calls, we're focusing on delivering dramatically improved customer experiences from quote to cash, giving customers a reason to choose Lumen for core network services. The best way to measure that progress is to look at three areas, sales, customer set and securing the base.

    首先讓我詳細介紹一下營運週轉部分。正如我在先前的電話會議中所描述的,我們致力於提供從報價到現金的顯著改善的客戶體驗,讓客戶有理由選擇 Lumen 提供核心網路服務。衡量進展的最佳方法是專注於三個領域:銷售、客戶群和鞏固基礎。

  • I'm delighted to share our progress across the fundmental. After a blockbuster Q1, we continued to see strong sales performance in the second quarter with North American large enterprise and mid-market sales, up nearly 26% year-over-year. Additionally, large and mid-market new logo sales increased 10% and net total contract value for all channels was up nearly 40% year-over-year.

    我很高興分享我們在基礎方面的進展。在經歷了第一季的轟動之後,我們在第二季度繼續看到強勁的銷售業績,北美大型企業和中端市場的銷售額同比增長近 26%。此外,大中型市場新標誌銷售額成長了10%,所有通路的合約總價值較去年同期成長了近40%。

  • Two notable wins are Uber, who's leveraging custom fiber wave from movement to ensure unparalleled connectivity between their data centers and the state of New Mexico who is using Lumen to build its first statewide education network. To complement these sales results, we saw another step function improvement in customer SAP in our service delivery process with year-over-year transaction Net Promoter Scores rising 10 points for large enterprise, 35 points for wholesale, 37 points for mid-market and a whopping 42 points for public sector.

    Uber 是兩場值得注意的勝利,該公司利用行動中的客製化光纖波來確保其資料中心與新墨西哥州之間無與倫比的連接,新墨西哥州正在使用 Lumen 建立其第一個全州教育網路。為了補充這些銷售業績,我們在服務交付流程中看到了客戶 SAP 的功能進一步改進,大型企業的交易淨推薦值同比上升了 10 分,批發上升了 35 分,中端市場上升了 37 分,公共部門高達42分。

  • Once again, every one of our enterprise customer channel show significant year-over-year improvements, which should manifest in lower churn, higher gross sales and improved overall revenue growth over time.

    我們的每個企業客戶管道再一次顯示出顯著的逐年改善,這應該體現在隨著時間的推移,客戶流失率降低、總銷售額增加以及整體收入成長提高。

  • Finally, we're making progress securing the base with our relentless focus on five key levers, installs, renewals, migration, usage and disconnects. We think the best way to measure our progress here is to compare ourselves to market trends. And once again, we saw less revenue declines this quarter than our industry peers.

    最後,我們透過不懈地專注於五個關鍵槓桿(安裝、續訂、遷移、使用和斷開連接),在確保基礎安全方面取得了進展。我們認為衡量我們進展的最佳方法是將我們自己與市場趨勢進行比較。我們再一次看到本季的營收下降幅度小於同業。

  • We continue to fine-tune our motions, developing and launching new product bundles and educating our customers on the best migration path from legacy to modern technologies. And while we're excited by the progress of our operational turnaround in legacy core network services, the real breakthrough to share with you is how we're repositioning the company for the future in the growing market of AI.

    我們不斷調整我們的行動,開發和推出新產品包,並教育我們的客戶從傳統技術到現代技術的最佳遷移路徑。雖然我們對傳統核心網路服務營運轉型的進展感到興奮,但與您分享的真正突破是我們如何在不斷成長的人工智慧市場中重新定位公司的未來。

  • Two ways that we're repositioning Lumen's. First, we're clarifying telecom by delivering a digital platform to enable enterprise customers to digitally design price order and consume secure network services. Quickly, securely and effortlessly. We're thrilled with our progress driving adoption of our Lumen digital flagship network as a service offering with companies like Versa, T Marzetti and DXC technologies, as well as many other companies across industry.

    我們重新定位 Lumen 的兩種方式。首先,我們透過提供數位平台來澄清電信,使企業客戶能夠以數位方式設計價格訂單並使用安全的網路服務。快速、安全、輕鬆。我們對推動 Versa、T Marzetti 和 DXC Technologies 以及許多其他行業公司採用 Lumen 數位旗艦網路即服務產品所取得的進展感到非常興奮。

  • Okay. Second, wave of repositioning the company for growth is with Lumen's private connectivity fabrics. To summarize what's happening. The dramatic rise in AI innovation spring explosive growth in data center build-out, and data centers simply has to be connected. We're honored that technology powerhouses like Microsoft and several other big technology firms are choosing Lumen to build their AI backbone, and they're choosing us for two reasons.

    好的。其次,公司的成長重新定位浪潮是透過 Lumen 的專用連接結構實現的。總結一下正在發生的事情。人工智慧創新的急劇成長引發了資料中心建設的爆炸性成長,而資料中心必須相互連結。我們很榮幸像微軟和其他幾家大型科技公司這樣的科技巨頭選擇 Lumen 來建立他們的人工智慧骨幹網,他們選擇我們有兩個原因。

  • First, our world-class fiber network with it's unique route vast coverage and state-of-the-art fiber solutions from our strategic partnership with Corning. And second, the digital platform we're building that makes consumption quick secure and effortless. With $5 billion in closed deals so far and the active discussions we're having with a long list of additional customers, we believe Lumen is becoming known as the trusted network for AI.

    首先,我們與康寧的策略合作夥伴關係提供了世界一流的光纖網絡,其獨特的路線、廣泛的覆蓋範圍和最先進的光纖解決方案。其次,我們正在建構的數位平台可以讓消費變得快速、安全、輕鬆。到目前為止,我們已經完成了 50 億美元的交易,我們正在與一長串其他客戶進行積極的討論,我們相信 Lumen 正在成為眾所周知的人工智慧可信任網路。

  • The growth in this type of sale will be meaningful and accretive to our cash position in the short term and positions us for long-term predictable revenue growth in the future. Looking ahead, I'm sure you, like everybody else on planet Earth is wondering how big are these networking deals going to be for AI and what's the market look like?

    此類銷售的成長將在短期內有意義並增加我們的現金狀況,並使我們在未來實現長期可預測的收入成長。展望未來,我相信您和地球上的其他人一樣想知道這些網路交易對於人工智慧來說會有多大以及市場是什麼樣的?

  • So I'm going to share our early hypothesis with you. We think there are likely to be three distinct phases. The first phase, as evidenced by our closed deals is with huge technology companies, cloud providers, social platforms, et cetera, who are AI thought leaders in our building and training AI models responsible for the explosive growth in data center build-outs.

    所以我將與您分享我們的早期假設。我們認為可能會分為三個不同的階段。正如我們達成的交易所證明的那樣,第一階段是與大型科技公司、雲端供應商、社交平台等合作,他們是我們建立和訓練人工智慧模型的人工智慧思想領袖,負責資料中心擴建的爆炸性成長。

  • They were the first to recognize that today's Internet simply won't serve tomorrow's AI economy, and they're partnering with Lumen to massively expand their connectivity infrastructure. We think the next tranche of demand is likely to come from the AI model inference phase, probably with forward-thinking enterprises who see AI is the way to transform their businesses in financial services, healthcare and retailers to start.

    他們是第一個認識到今天的互聯網根本無法服務明天的人工智慧經濟的人,他們正在與 Lumen 合作大規模擴展他們的連接基礎設施。我們認為下一批需求可能來自人工智慧模型推理階段,可能是那些有遠見的企業認為人工智慧是金融服務、醫療保健和零售商領域業務轉型的出路。

  • And finally, in the third phase, we suspect breakout growth and demand for connectivity and digital on-demand network services will come when AI start talking to AI in rings and exchanges. We're in very early discussions with strategic partners who are helping shape our view in this space. Please note that these recent announcements, which were not included in our 2024 guidance, fund the necessary upfront OpEx and CapEx to ramp and scale these new AI workloads.

    最後,在第三階段,我們懷疑當人工智慧開始在環和交換中與人工智慧對話時,對連接和數位點播網路服務的突破性成長和需求將會到來。我們正在與策略夥伴進行早期討論,他們正在幫助我們塑造在這個領域的觀點。請注意,這些最近的公告並未包含在我們的 2024 年指南中,而是為必要的前期營運支出和資本支出提供資金,以擴大和擴展這些新的人工智慧工作負載。

  • Additionally, these deals provide funding for continued innovation and strategic cost takeout. And that leads me to my next important piece of news. Today, we're announcing that we see a path to creating a $1 billion in cost takeout by the end of 2027. This next cost wave of efficiency will come from deeply strategic infrastructure simplification in three major area, network, product portfolio and IT.

    此外,這些交易也為持續創新和策略成本削減提供資金。這引出了我的下一則重要新聞。今天,我們宣布,我們看到了到 2027 年底實現 10 億美元成本削減的路徑。

  • These infrastructure projects are rooted in network standardization. We're now integrating the networks from four different architectures engineering them into one simplified standardize and unified network fabric. This move provides a step function change in the level of simplification that we can drive inside the company, providing breakthrough improvements in our customer and employee experiences.

    這些基礎設施項目植根於網路標準化。我們現在正在將四種不同架構的網路整合到一個簡化的標準化和統一的網路結構中。這項措施提供了我們可以在公司內部推動的簡化程度的階躍功能變化,從而為我們的客戶和員工體驗帶來突破性的改進。

  • Let me provide just a little bit more color on the impact of the plan. Our target is to ensure that the majority of our net new services around this unified network fabric by the end of 2025. This will enable massive simplification in our product portfolio, enabling us to significantly reduce our product count from thousands of product codes to a target of around 300, of massive simplification enabler across Lumen and our ecosystem.

    讓我就該計劃的影響提供更多的資訊。我們的目標是確保到 2025 年底我們的大部分網路新服務都圍繞著這個統一的網路結構。大約300 個,是整個Lumen 和我們生態系統的大規模簡化推動者。

  • Once we unify the network and simplify the product portfolio in our enterprise business, we'll go after technical cost savings in IT. For example, we'd like to compress our 24 order management systems to a target number of 1 and reduce our 17 billing systems to well, you guessed at a target of 1. This work is going to take a few years to complete, but it will yield material and enduring bottom-line benefits.

    一旦我們統一了網路並簡化了企業業務中的產品組合,我們將致力於節省 IT 技術成本。例如,我們希望將 24 個訂單管理系統壓縮到目標數量 1,並將 17 個計費系統減少到目標數量 1,您猜到了目標數量 1。實質和持久的利潤效益。

  • To re-emphasize, the work wouldn't be possible without the additional liquidity gain from our private connectivity fabric sales, which also allows us to self fund a spending increase in key areas to drive out these costs for the long term.

    再次強調,如果沒有我們的私人連結結構銷售帶來的額外流動性收益,這項工作就不可能實現,這也使我們能夠自籌資金增加關鍵領域的支出,以長期消除這些成本。

  • To summarize our enterprise business transformation efforts, we've got the cash, we've got the assets and we've got a world-class leadership team needed to execute on the next phase of our transformation, unlocking breakthrough growth opportunities and strategic cost savings moving forward.

    總結我們的企業業務轉型工作,我們有現金、資產和世界一流的領導團隊,可以執行下一階段的轉型,釋放突破性成長機會和策略成本儲蓄向前邁進。

  • And finally, I'm really delighted to share that our mass market segment is showing steady results improvement. We continue to opportunistically deploy capital, enabling 136,000 locations in Q2 on track to deliver 500,000 new fiber enabled locations this year.

    最後,我非常高興地告訴大家,我們的大眾市場領域正在顯示出穩定的績效改善。我們繼續機會性地部署資本,使第二季的 136,000 個站點預計在今年交付 500,000 個新的光纖站點。

  • We also continued our strong fiber sales momentum from first quarter '24, as indicated by our record level of 2Q fiber net adds of 40,000. And we're happy to announce that we've reached over 1 million fiber subscribers in July. This is a significant milestone and reinforces the value of the product we're delivering to the consumer. And it also shows our mass markets team really knows how to execute well.

    我們也延續了自 2024 年第一季以來強勁的纖維銷售勢頭,第二季纖維淨增加量達到創紀錄水平 40,000 件就表明了這一點。我們很高興地宣布,7 月我們的光纖用戶數量已超過 100 萬。這是一個重要的里程碑,增強了我們向消費者提供的產品的價值。這也顯示我們的大眾市場團隊確實知道如何良好執行。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris

    這樣,我會把電話轉給克里斯

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Kate. Before I discuss the quarter, I want to take a moment to reflect back to Q2 earnings last year. Since that time, we've successfully completed a refinancing that addressed over $15 billion of our debt and extended over $10 billion of our maturities, and we secured access to over $2.3 billion in new liquidity. And we launched our PCF solutions as well as our suite of new digital offerings.

    謝謝,凱特。在討論本季之前,我想花點時間回顧去年第二季的收益。自那時以來,我們成功完成了再融資,解決了超過 150 億美元的債務,延長了超過 100 億美元的期限,並且我們獲得了超過 23 億美元的新流動性。我們還推出了 PCF 解決方案以及新的數位產品套件。

  • And we've generated early growth in our public sector and the growth segment of our large enterprise business. And as of yesterday, we announced the largest sales in the company's history, totaling nearly $5 billion, fueled by our AI hyperscaler customers. This is all as we drive in network unification from four discrete enterprise networks to one, resulting in over $1 billion in cost efficiencies.

    我們的公共部門和大型企業業務的成長部分已經實現了早期成長。截至昨天,在我們的人工智慧超大規模客戶的推動下,我們宣布了公司歷史上最大的銷售額,總計近 50 億美元。這一切都是因為我們推動網路統一從四個離散的企業網路變成一個,從而實現了超過 10 億美元的成本效率。

  • None of this would be possible without our world-class management team who's executing on our vision. We're moving with pace and we're not done. The recent developments in our business reflect major proof points in terms of early and material execution on Lumen's transformation path forward. And we are pleased the market is starting to value this opportunity.

    如果沒有我們世界一流的管理團隊執行我們的願景,這一切都不可能實現。我們正在穩步前進,但我們還沒有完成。我們業務的最新發展反映了 Lumen 轉型道路上早期和實質執行的主要證據。我們很高興市場開始重視這個機會。

  • We believe we're in the first inning of the AI growth opportunity for our fiber infrastructure and Lumen digital services. Accordingly, the positive impact these private connectivity fabric sales will have in our financials are powerful and clear.

    我們相信,我們的光纖基礎設施和 Lumen 數位服務正處於人工智慧成長機會的第一階段。因此,這些私人連結結構銷售將對我們的財務狀況產生強大而明確的正面影響。

  • First, we believe the progress we've made on driving PCF sales these past few months is just the beginning of a vast new TAM, which brings long-term sticky revenue offsetting higher churn [legacy] declines.

    首先,我們相信過去幾個月我們在推動 PCF 銷售方面取得的進展只是一個巨大的新 TAM 的開始,它將帶來長期的黏性收入,抵消更高的客戶流失率(傳統)下降。

  • Second, we estimate that the cash received from PCF sales will close any free cash flow deficit between now and when we reach sustainable positive free cash flow growth.

    其次,我們估計從 PCF 銷售中收到的現金將彌補從現在到我們實現可持續的正自由現金流成長之間的任何自由現金流赤字。

  • Third, we will have ample free cash flow to invest in our transformation and reduce debt. And finally, in our view, PCF sales are significant and incremental to the overall value of Lumen's business. The building blocks of our value creation are clear, starting with our nationwide fiber network. We believe Lumen is one of the few companies with the resources and scale to provide the critical infrastructure for AI and the partnerships we've announced representing large and growing opportunity to provide private connectivity fabric solution.

    第三,我們將有充足的自由現金流來投資轉型和減少債務。最後,我們認為,PCF 銷售對於 Lumen 業務的整體價值而言意義重大且是增量。我們創造價值的基石很明確,首先是我們的全國光纖網路。我們相信 Lumen 是少數擁有資源和規模為人工智慧提供關鍵基礎設施的公司之一,我們宣布的合作夥伴關係代表著提供私人連接結構解決方案的巨大且不斷增長的機會。

  • We see a runway to growth as we transform telecom, and we believe this sets up a value-creation path for Lumen, all as we continue to execute on our core strategic goals of commercial excellence, securing the base and innovating for growth. As Kate mentioned, our sales growth engines within our large and mid-market enterprise channels in our business segments, along with our mass market segment, showed solid performance this quarter with large enterprise and mid market sales, both up over 26% year-over-year.

    在電信轉型過程中,我們看到了一條成長之路,我們相信這為 Lumen 建立了一條價值創造之路,同時我們將繼續執行卓越商業的核心策略目標,鞏固基礎並透過創新實現成長。正如凱特所提到的,我們業務部門的大中型市場企業管道以及大眾市場部門的銷售成長引擎在本季度表現強勁,大型企業和中型市場銷售額均同比增長超過 26% -年。

  • Additionally, Quantum Fiber broadband net additions of 40,000, again, set an all-time record, and we passed the 1 million total fiber subscriber mark in July. Outstanding work by the team. While consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA still feel the impacts of legacy declines, we are encouraged by improvements we're making in the business.

    此外,量子光纖寬頻淨增量達到 4 萬戶,再次創下歷史紀錄,7 月光纖用戶總數突破 100 萬大關。團隊的出色工作。雖然合併收入和調整後的 EBITDA 仍然受到傳統下降的影響,但我們對業務的進步感到鼓舞。

  • Now let's move to the discussion of financial results for the second quarter. On a year-over-year basis, total reported revenue declined 10.7% to $3.268 billion. 36% of the decline was due to the impact of divestitures, commercial agreements in the sales of the CDN business. Business segment revenue declined 11.4% to $2.577 billion and approximately 42% of that decline was due to the impact of divestitures and commercial agreements. Mass Markets segment revenue declined 8.2% to $691 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.011 billion with a 30.9% margin and free cash flow was negative $156 million.

    現在讓我們討論第二季的財務表現。報告總收入年減 10.7% 至 32.68 億美元。 36%的下降是由於CDN業務銷售中的剝離、商業協議的影響。業務部門收入下降 11.4% 至 25.77 億美元,其中約 42% 的下降是由於資產剝離和商業協議的影響。大眾市場部門營收下降 8.2% 至 6.91 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 10.11 億美元,利潤率為 30.9%,自由現金流為負 1.56 億美元。

  • Next, I'll review our detailed revenue results for the quarter on a year-over-year basis. Within our North America enterprise channels, which is our business segment, excluding wholesale, international and other, revenue declined 3.6%. We continue to expect public sector to be the first channel to pivot to sustainable growth later this year, followed by mid-market and then large enterprise.

    接下來,我將回顧本季同比的詳細收入結果。在我們的北美企業通路(不包括批發、國際和其他業務部門)中,收入下降了 3.6%。我們仍然預計公共部門將成為今年稍後轉向永續成長的第一個管道,其次是中型市場,然後是大型企業。

  • Overall, North American business declined 5.5%. Large Enterprise revenue declined 6.9% in the second quarter. Our grow revenue was approximately flat year-over-year with continued pressure in nurture and harvest product revenue. We expect continued variability in trends as we drive towards overall stabilization. Mid-market revenue declined approximately 7% year-over-year with improvement in growth, offset by nurture and harvest.

    總體而言,北美業務下降了 5.5%。大型企業第二季營收下降 6.9%。由於培育和收穫產品收入持續面臨壓力,我們的營收成長與去年同期基本持平。我們預計,隨著我們努力實現整體穩定,趨勢將持續變化。中端市場收入年減約 7%,但成長有所改善,但被培育和收穫所抵消。

  • Public sector revenue increased 8% year-over-year, driven by strength in our grow and other product revenue and partially offset by declines in nurture and harvest. We continue to see traction with large bookings in this space, which take time to ramp to revenue, and these wins give us continued confidence that public sector will be the first sales channel to return to sustainable growth this year.

    公共部門營收年增 8%,這得益於我們的成長和其他產品收入的強勁成長,但部分被培育和收穫的下降所抵消。我們繼續看到這一領域的大量預訂的吸引力,這需要時間才能增加收入,這些勝利讓我們繼續相信公共部門將成為今年第一個恢復可持續增長的銷售管道。

  • Wholesale revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year. The harvest portion of the wholesale portfolio, which is comprised of products like TDM voice and private line saw revenue contract by 17.9% year-over-year in the second quarter. This is primarily driven by telco partners that are selling legacy services.

    批發收入較去年同期下降約10%。批發產品組合的收穫部分由 TDM 語音和專線等產品組成,第二季營收年減 17.9%。這主要是由銷售傳統服務的電信合作夥伴所推動的。

  • Our harvest product revenue will likely continue to decline over time and is an area that we will manage for cash. International and other revenue declined 67.1% driven primarily by the divestiture of our media business and the sale of select CDN contracts in the fourth quarter of last year.

    隨著時間的推移,我們的收穫產品收入可能會繼續下降,這是我們將管理現金的一個領域。國際和其他收入下降了 67.1%,這主要是由於去年第四季度我們媒體業務的剝離和精選 CDN 合約的出售。

  • Moving to our business product lifecycle reporting our references to results based on our North America enterprise channel. The 3.6% year-over-year decrease was due to declines in our nurture and harvest segments, partially offset by growth, particularly enterprise broadband, dark fiber in IT. While results can vary in any quarter, we expect sustained strength in the grow product revenue as we execute on our core turnarounds.

    轉向我們的業務產品生命週期,報告我們對基於北美企業通路的結果的參考。年減 3.6% 是由於培育和收穫領域的下降,但部分被成長所抵消,特別是企業寬頻、IT 領域的暗光纖。儘管每季的業績都可能有所不同,但我們預計,隨著我們執行核心週轉計劃,產品收入的成長將持續強勁。

  • Within Nurture and Harvest, we continue to expect headwinds in these markets declining categories. However, we continue to take proactive steps to migrate customers to newer technologies and these actions improve our customers' experience and will provide an uplift in customer lifetime value for Lumin.

    在培育和收穫方面,我們繼續預期這些市場下降類別將面臨阻力。然而,我們繼續採取積極主動的措施,將客戶遷移到更新的技術,這些行動改善了客戶的體驗,並將提高 Lumin 的客戶終身價值。

  • Additionally, we will continue to pursue opportunities for cost optimization when we help customers migrate from off-net legacy and TDM-based services onto Lumen's network. Within North American enterprise channels, grow products revenue increased 1.5% year-over-year. Grow now represents approximately 43% of our North America enterprise revenue.

    此外,當我們幫助客戶從網外傳統服務和基於 TDM 的服務遷移到 Lumen 網路時,我們將繼續尋求成本優化的機會。在北美企業通路內,種植產品收入較去年同期成長 1.5%。目前,成長約占我們北美企業收入的 43%。

  • And for our total business segment carrying approximately 80% direct margin this quarter. Nurture products revenue decreased 12.1% year-over-year. Nurture represents 30% of our North American enterprise revenue and for our total business segment carried an approximate 66% direct margin this quarter. Harvest products revenue decreased 10.6% year-over-year and continues to be negatively impacted by declines in TDM based voice and private line.

    本季我們整個業務部門的直接利潤率約為 80%。培育產品營收年減12.1%。培育占我們北美企業營收的 30%,本季我們整個業務部門的直接利潤率約為 66%。嘉實產品營收年減 10.6%,並繼續受到基於 TDM 的語音和專線業務下降的負面影響。

  • Harvest represented approximately 16% of our North America enterprise revenue in the second quarter. For our total business segments that carry an approximate 77% direct margin this quarter. Other product revenue improved 18.5% year-over-year. As a reminder, other product revenue tends to experience fluctuations due to the variable nature of these products.

    Harvest 約占我們第二季北美企業營收的 16%。本季我們整個業務部門的直接利潤率約為 77%。其他產品收入較去年同期成長18.5%。提醒一下,由於其他產品的可變性,其收入往往會出現波動。

  • Now moving on to mass markets. Our fiber broadband revenue 14.6% year-over-year, and represents approximately 38% of mass markets broadband revenue. During the quarter, fiber broadband enabled location adds were 136,000, bringing our total to over $3.9 million as of June 30, and pacing towards our targeted annual 500,000 build target this year.

    現在轉向大眾市場。我們的光纖寬頻營收年增 14.6%,約佔大眾市場寬頻收入的 38%。本季度,支援光纖寬頻的地點新增數量為 136,000 個,截至 6 月 30 日,我們的總數量超過 390 萬美元,並朝著我們今年的年度 50 萬個建設目標邁進。

  • We also added 40,000 Quantum Fiber customers, which is our best fiber net add quarter reported to date, and this brings our total to 992,000. Fiber ARPU was $62, up slightly, both sequentially and year-over-year. Importantly, we reached a significant milestone of 1 million fiber broadband subscribers in July. At the end of the second quarter, our penetration of legacy copper broadband was approximately 9%, and our Quantum Fiber penetration stood at approximately 25%.

    我們還增加了 40,000 名 Quantum Fiber 客戶,這是我們迄今為止報告的最好的光纖網路增加季度,這使我們的總數達到 992,000 名。光纖 ARPU 為 62 美元,環比和同比均略有上升。重要的是,我們在 7 月實現了 100 萬光纖寬頻用戶的重要里程碑。截至第二季末,我們的傳統銅質寬頻滲透率約為 9%,量子光纖滲透率約為 25%。

  • As we look ahead, we will continue our market-by-market assessment of the mass markets business as we explore a range of strategic options to maximize its value. Those options include potential joint ventures, wholesaling arrangements or future divestitures to generate incremental cash.

    展望未來,我們將繼續對大眾市場業務進行逐一市場評估,探索一系列策略選擇以實現其價值最大化。這些選擇包括潛在的合資企業、批發安排或未來的資產剝離,以產生增量現金。

  • Now turning to adjusted EBITDA. For the second quarter of 2024, adjusted EBITDA was $1.011 billion compared to $1.229 billion in the year ago quarter. Second quarter EBITDA was positively impacted by our strong first quarter sales bookings as well as efficiency improvements from our second quarter cost actions and overall margin management.

    現在轉向調整後的 EBITDA。 2024 年第二季度,調整後 EBITDA 為 10.11 億美元,去年同期為 12.29 億美元。第二季 EBITDA 受到第一季強勁銷售預訂以及第二季成本行動和整體利潤管理效率提高的正面影響。

  • Special items impacting adjusted EBITDA totaled $136 million. The majority of special items in the quarter were related to severance. For the second quarter of 2024, our adjusted EBITDA margin was 30.9%. Capital expenditures were $753 million and free cash flow, excluding special items was negative $156 million. As we previously stated, we're leaning into our network investments to support the rapid growth in demand our customers are facing.

    影響調整後 EBITDA 的特殊項目總計 1.36 億美元。本季的大多數特殊項目都與遣散費有關。 2024 年第二季度,我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 30.9%。資本支出為 7.53 億美元,不包括特殊項目的自由現金流為負 1.56 億美元。正如我們之前所說,我們正在依靠網路投資來支持客戶面臨的快速成長的需求。

  • Now before I provide an update on our 2024 financial outlook, I'd like to provide some color around the near term impacts of our PCF sale and the additional liquidity and flexibility we have. As Kate mentioned, we're moving full speed ahead and investing in our transformation, which includes additional spending on network and systems unification that will ultimately lead to more efficient operations and a better customer experience.

    現在,在我提供 2024 年財務展望的最新資訊之前,我想先介紹一下 PCF 出售的近期影響以及我們擁有的額外流動性和靈活性。正如凱特所提到的,我們正在全速前進並投資於我們的轉型,其中包括在網路和系統統一方面的額外支出,這最終將帶來更有效率的營運和更好的客戶體驗。

  • Given our improving liquidity profile, we intend to pull forward some expenses from '26 and '27 into '25, accelerating the time line of our cost takeout goals. With the investments in transformation and costs associated with recent PCF sales and in conjunction with continued legacy revenue declines, directionally, we see 2025 EBITDA below 2024 levels with a significant rebound in 2026 and growing thereafter. We will provide more detailed 2025 guidance on our fourth quarter 2024 call in February.

    鑑於我們的流動性狀況有所改善,我們打算將一些費用從 26 年和 27 年推遲到 25 年,從而加快實現成本削減目標的時間。隨著近期 PCF 銷售相關的轉型和成本投資以及傳統收入的持續下降,我們預計 2025 年 EBITDA 將低於 2024 年的水平,並在 2026 年大幅反彈,並在此後繼續增長。我們將在 2 月召開的 2024 年第四季電話會議上提供更詳細的 2025 年指引。

  • Now moving on to our financial outlook. We now estimate fiscal year '24 EBITDA to be in the range of $3.9 to $4 billion, CapEx in the range of $3.1 to $3.3 billion. Cash interest in the range of $1.15 to $1.25 billion and free cash flow in the range of $1to $1.2 billion.

    現在轉向我們的財務前景。我們現在估計 24 財年 EBITDA 為 390 至 40 億美元,資本支出為 310 至 33 億美元。現金利息在 115 至 12.5 億美元之間,自由現金流在 1 至 12 億美元之間。

  • This guidance includes some incremental OpEx, CapEx and cash flows associated with our PCF sales growth, the gain on sale of an investment as well as incremental spending to ultimately improve our cost structure and margin. This additional OpEx and CapEx will be fully funded upfront by incremental PCF cash flow.

    該指南包括與我們的 PCF 銷售成長相關的一些增量營運支出、資本支出和現金流、投資銷售收益以及最終改善我們的成本結構和利潤率的增量支出。額外的營運支出和資本支出將由增量 PCF 現金流預先全額資助。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back to Kate for closing remarks.

    接下來,我將把它轉回給凱特做結束語。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • thanks, Chris. Before we open up the call for questions, I wanted to pause to acknowledge where we are. AI represent one of the most significant technology shifts in history. Every person and every organization on earth will be impacted. AI needs data, data need data centers and data centers need to be connected. What was once an overbuild fiber network is shifting from commodity to something much more valuable.

    謝謝,克里斯。在我們開始提問之前,我想停下來確認一下我們現在的處境。人工智慧代表了歷史上最重大的技術變革之一。地球上的每個人和每個組織都會受到影響。人工智慧需要數據,數據需要數據中心,數據中心需要連接。曾經過度建設的光纖網路正在從商品轉變為更有價值的東西。

  • As lumen, we are streamlining and digitizing our operations to try to find growth in the legacy telco markets. Instead, we're building a digital platform to help us become the trusted network for AI so we can capitalize on the market that will likely see explosive growth for decades. This is Lumen's moment. We are playing to win. This is the business that we are in.

    作為流明,我們正在精簡和數位化我們的運營,以試圖在傳統電信市場中找到成長。相反,我們正在建立一個數位平台,幫助我們成為值得信賴的人工智慧網絡,這樣我們就可以利用這個可能在未來幾十年出現爆炸性增長的市場。這是盧門的時刻。我們是為了勝利而戰。這就是我們從事的業務。

  • Operator, we're ready for questions.

    接線員,我們準備好回答問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. (Operator instructions)

    謝謝。現在可以提問。 (操作員說明)

  • Michael Rollins, Citi.

    麥可羅林斯,花旗銀行。

  • Michael Rollins - Analyst

    Michael Rollins - Analyst

  • Thanks and good afternoon. First, with respect to the $5 billion of sales, curious if you could give some additional color on the competitiveness of that process? Are these customers using single vendors for this solution or multiple vendors. So this is something that's not just helping Lumen, but maybe the ecosystem.

    謝謝,下午好。首先,對於 50 億美元的銷售額,您是否可以對此流程的競爭力提供一些額外的說明?這些客戶是使用單一供應商提供此解決方案還是使用多個供應商。所以這不僅有助於 Lumen,也可能有助於生態系統。

  • And then for Lumen's specifically, can you share the mix of assets that are existing fiber, existing conduit, leveraging assets that are already out there from you versus what you're building is new infrastructure and as you consume some of those fiber inventories such that investment mix or margin mix might look differently over time as you continue to sell within this new PFC segment. Thanks.

    然後,具體而言,對於 Lumen 來說,您能否分享現有光纖、現有管道的資產組合,利用您已有的資產與您正在構建的新基礎設施以及當您消耗其中一些光纖庫存時,隨著時間的推移,當您繼續在這個新的PFC 細分市場中進行銷售時,投資組合或利潤組合可能會有所不同。謝謝。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Mike. So I'll take the first part, let Chris handle the second part. So first part, what does the competitive landscape look like? Look, obviously, I'm a little bit biased, but here's my observations. Our network is the crown jewel that we always thought it was.

    嘿,麥克。所以我將負責第一部分,讓克里斯處理第二部分。那麼第一部分,競爭格局是什麼樣的呢?顯然,我有點偏見,但這是我的觀察。我們的網路是我們一直認為的皇冠上的寶石。

  • It's got great coverage, unique routes, it's diverse and it's got state-of-the-art fiber because we've been taking care of it for a long time. And that's giving us great positioning with our customers. They're looking at sometimes building some routes by themselves, most of the time understanding that we can get them there faster with higher quality and better service. And that's that's the observation across the deals we've won so far.

    它具有廣泛的覆蓋範圍、獨特的路線、多樣化,並且擁有最先進的光纖,因為我們已經照顧它很長時間了。這讓我們在客戶中擁有了良好的定位。他們有時會考慮自己建造一些路線,大多數時候他們都明白我們可以以更高的品質和更好的服務更快地將他們送達目的地。這就是我們迄今為止贏得的交易的觀察。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, and just on the economics, it's a really good question, and I'm not going to be evasive with you. But the reality is it's really complicated. So it's a deal to deal, every deal is different in terms of where they want to go from into how much capacity they need.

    是的,就經濟學而言,這是一個非常好的問題,我不會對你迴避。但現實是它真的很複雜。所以這是一筆交易,每筆交易在他們想要從哪裡到他們需要多少產能方面都是不同的。

  • And inevitably, you will end up with a combination of our existing fiber, new fiber, existing conduit, new conduit, it really does vary deal to deal. Now, on that, we'll never disclose it because these are called private connectivity fabric for a reason. And our customers want to keep it private because it's a competitive, a secret as it is a competitive secret for us. So it will vary deal to deal, but the video that we released, I think, gives it good flavor on average.

    不可避免地,您最終將獲得我們現有光纖、新光纖、現有管道、新管道的組合,這確實需要不同的處理。現在,我們永遠不會透露它,因為這些被稱為私有連接結構是有原因的。我們的客戶希望將其保密,因為它是一個競爭性的秘密,因為它對我們來說是一個競爭性的秘密。因此,交易會有所不同,但我認為我們發布的影片平均而言具有良好的風味。

  • Michael Rollins - Analyst

    Michael Rollins - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Next question.

    下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sebastiano Petti.

    塞巴斯蒂亞諾·佩蒂。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi, thanks for taking the question. Just had a quick question on the free cash flow guidance. Can you help us think about it? Is that fully just driven by the customer deposits from the just private custom fiber fabric AI? Or is that also reflective of the, I think, Chris, you said gain on the sale.

    您好,感謝您提出問題。只是有一個關於自由現金流指導的簡單問題。你能幫我們想一下嗎?這完全是由私人定制纖維織物人工智慧的客戶存款所驅動的嗎?或者這也反映了克里斯,我認為你所說的銷售收益。

  • And in addition to that, can you help us, maybe think, just the free cash flow uplift that you're seeing here? Is that something that we should expect to stay on the balance sheet in 2024? Or is this something that will probably get spent as you probably to fund the increase in CapEx that you've guided to today? Just trying to help think about the commencement of the build-out in pacing. Thank you.

    除此之外,您能否幫助我們,也許想想,您在這裡看到的自由現金流的增加?這是我們應該期望在 2024 年保留在資產負債表上的事情嗎?或者,這是否可能會被花費,因為您可能會為您今天指導的資本支出的增加提供資金?只是想幫助思考節奏上的擴展的開始。謝謝。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I will give you credit because you ask one of the great questions and the call early. So the cash flow guidance for this year is driven by both, some of the upfront cash received. We haven't received all of it, obviously for the PCF deals, and it is also related to the asset sale that we did. So both of those things contributed to the free cash flow.

    我會讚揚你,因為你提出了一個很好的問題,而且很早就打了電話。因此,今年的現金流量指引是由收到的一些預付現金所推動的。我們還沒有收到全部資金,顯然是 PCF 交易的資金,這也與我們所做的資產出售有關。因此,這兩件事都對自由現金流做出了貢獻。

  • As it relates to where we go from here, and again, I want to really be really careful because we're not giving 2025 guidance yet. But we haven't received all the cash yet, that will be received some this year, some next year, some the following year because again, these are massive construction projects. They take time. And we will start to spend the CapEx as evidenced by our guidance this year and have more next year.

    因為它關係到我們今後的發展方向,所以我想再次非常小心,因為我們還沒有給出 2025 年的指導。但我們還沒有收到所有現金,今年會收到一些,明年會收到一些,後年會收到一些,因為這些都是大型建設項目。他們需要時間。正如我們今年的指導所證明的那樣,我們將開始支出資本支出,並在明年投入更多。

  • But the point is on the deals, we're not financing the build. So we get paid in advance of the construction. The only thing that is kind of hanging as you go out 12 months is we pay tax on the cash received. So even though the revenue is amortized, the IRS likes to get paid on a cash basis for these deals. So that will be something that we deal with, and we'll give more color on that as we move through. But high level, I would say that next year free cash flow looks good.

    但重點在於交易,我們不會為建設提供資金。所以我們在施工前就得到報酬了。當你出去 12 個月時,唯一懸而未決的事情是我們對收到的現金繳稅。因此,即使收入是攤銷的,美國國稅局也喜歡以現金支付這些交易的費用。所以這將是我們要處理的事情,我們將在討論過程中對此給予更多的關注。但從高水準來看,我想說明年的自由現金流看起來不錯。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Next question.

    下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Batya Levi, UBS.

    巴蒂亞‧萊維,瑞銀集團。

  • Batya Levi - Analyst

    Batya Levi - Analyst

  • Great, thank you. Looking at the EBITDA guidance change for the year. Is that purely related to the incremental OpEx for getting ready for these network (inaudible)? Or is there any change in terms of the underlying trend? And can you just go over the $1 billion cost savings you expect over the next three years the pacing of that? I think you mentioned some of the expenses will be pulled forward. And then is there any incremental cost to achieve that savings through the next three years? Thank you.

    太好了謝謝。看看今年的 EBITDA 指引變更。這純粹與為這些網路做好準備而增加的營運支出有關嗎(聽不清楚)?或者說基本趨勢有什麼改變嗎?您能否回顧一下您預計在未來三年內節省 10 億美元成本的進度?我想你提到了一些費用將提前。那麼,在未來三年內實現這一節約是否會增加成本?謝謝。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So as it relates to this year, the vast majority of the, there was obviously a lot of things that could go on inside of EBITDA. But the main driver here are the TCF deals. And the OpEx investments we need to make to get that construction factory up and running in a more scaled way. It's a group that exists. It's one of Lumen's core competencies, but the size of that group needs to get substantially larger to support just the quantum of these deals.

    是的。因此,就今年而言,絕大多數情況下,EBITDA 內部顯然可能發生很多事情。但這裡的主要動力是 TCF 交易。我們需要進行營運支出投資,以使建築工廠以更大規模的方式啟動和運作。這是一個存在的群體。這是 Lumen 的核心競爭力之一,但該團隊的規模需要大幅擴大才能支持這些交易的數量。

  • And so that's the key driver. As it relates to the $1 billion cost takeout, we haven't again, I want to stay away from 2025 guidance as much as I can. We're not expecting those savings to start until next year. There will be some investment next year, and we'll disclose that when we give guidance for next year.

    這就是關鍵驅動因素。由於它涉及 10 億美元的成本支出,我們不會再這樣做了,我想盡可能遠離 2025 年的指導。我們預計這些節省要到明年才會開始。明年將會有一些投資,我們將在給出明年的指導時披露這一點。

  • But my comments on just trying to dimensionalize where we go from here are really around the fact that we're taking the opportunity near term balance of this year and '25 to really pull forward investments we were going to have to make in '26 and '27 to get to a place where our IT systems, as Kate mentioned, are more consolidated simplified to drive a customer experience.

    但我對試圖確定我們今後的發展方向的評論實際上是圍繞著這樣一個事實,即我們正在利用今年和 25 年的近期平衡機會來真正推進我們必須在 26 和 26 年進行的投資。的,'27 我們的IT 系統得到了更整合和簡化,以提升客戶體驗。

  • And I would say if there's one key driver in that, it's going from what are four enterprise networks today to one. And that is a legacy that exist today that needs to be cleaned up because it just drives a much more seamless customer experience as we go forward.

    我想說,如果有一個關鍵驅動因素的話,那就是從今天的四個企業網絡變成一個。這是當今存在的遺留問題,需要清理,因為它只會在我們前進的過程中推動更無縫的客戶體驗。

  • Batya Levi - Analyst

    Batya Levi - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Next question, please.

    請下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Barden, Bank of America.

    大衛巴登,美國銀行。

  • David Barden - Analyst

    David Barden - Analyst

  • Hey, guys, thanks so much for taking the question. Chris, I guess it's not so much a question is I want to put forward a hypothesis and I want you to tell, it would be, I think, super helpful for people to share what you think is right or wrong about it. So we've got this $5 billion deal, but the majority of the cash is coming in the next three to four years, and the majority of the cash is also going out the door in the next three to four years.

    嘿,夥計們,非常感謝您提出這個問題。克里斯,我想這並不是一個問題,我想提出一個假設,我想讓你告訴我,我認為,這對人們分享你認為是對還是錯的觀點非常有幫助。所以我們已經達成了這筆 50 億美元的交易,但大部分現金將在未來三到四年內流入,而且大部分現金也會在未來三到四年內流出。

  • So any kind of cash inflow we're getting is kind of a timing benefit relative to the CapEx that's required under the contract. And if it's a $5 billion contract and the majority of it is related to the construction piece, let's just call it $3 billion round numbers. That means that the actual IRU sale piece is about $2 billion. And as you shared in your video, that IRU revenue doesn't start until after the build is done, which would be probably year year four or five over a 20-year period, $2 billion, $100 million in revenue a year, very high margin, maybe $85 million in EBITDA, tax effected, as you mentioned in your video, maybe, again, taxes will be timing related, but let's just call it $65 million tax affected cash flow over a 20-year period.

    因此,我們獲得的任何現金流入相對於合約所需的資本支出來說都是一種時間效益。如果這是一份價值 50 億美元的合同,並且其中大部分與建築工程相關,那麼我們就將其稱為 30 億美元的整數。這意味著 IRU 的實際銷售金額約為 20 億美元。正如您在影片中分享的那樣,IRU 收入要等到建造完成後才開始,這可能是 20 年期間的第四年或第五年,每年 20 億美元、1 億美元的收入,非常高利潤率,可能是8500 萬美元的EBITDA,受稅收影響,正如您在視頻中提到的,稅收可能與時間相關,但我們姑且稱之為20 年期間受稅收影響的6500 萬美元現金流。

  • So a $5 billion deal announcement turns into $65 million of cash flow five years from now, what's right and what's wrong about that assessment?

    那麼,五年後,一項 50 億美元的交易公告將變成 6,500 萬美元的現金流,這項評估的正確與錯誤是什麼?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I would say most of it's wrong. (Laughter). I think, David, here is where we go. So again, it's multiple deals that added up to the $5 billion, not not just one. And in the video, we talked about a cash contribution margin which is effectively the EBITDA less the CapEx, pretax that's roughly in the ballpark of our existing EBITDA margin. So you do the math on that, that will give you the pretax free cash flow associated with these deals.

    我想說大部分都是錯的。 (笑聲)。我想,大衛,這就是我們要去的地方。再說一遍,50 億美元是多筆交易的總和,而不只是一筆交易。在影片中,我們討論了現金貢獻利潤率,它實際上是 EBITDA 減去資本支出,稅前大致在我們現有 EBITDA 利潤率的範圍內。因此,您對此進行數學計算,這將為您提供與這些交易相關的稅前自由現金流。

  • And that cash flow, to your point, does come largely at the front end. Now there's ongoing payments for space and power, for operating and maintenance if they want us to run the networks for them that gives us nice cash flow over the years. But the tax would also be front end loaded. So the key thing here is that in one set of deals in those $5 billion deals that the net after-tax cash generated from that fully fund the liquidity gap that we've talked about for so long on these calls.

    就您而言,現金流確實主要來自前端。現在,如果他們希望我們為他們運行網絡,那麼我們就會持續支付空間和電力、營運和維護費用,這多年來為我們帶來了可觀的現金流。但稅收也將由前端加載。因此,這裡的關鍵是,在這 50 億美元交易中的一組交易中,由此產生的淨稅後現金完全填補了我們在這些電話會議上討論了很長時間的流動性缺口。

  • it's older, it's behind us. And we're not done. So as we said, there's another $7 billion of discussions underway right now. And this trend will continue. The demand isn't one and done. So that's the key differences. So there's more cash in the deal than than you've laid out some and there's more to come.

    它更老了,它在我們身後。我們還沒完成。正如我們所說,目前正在進行另外 70 億美元的討論。而這種趨勢將會持續下去。需求並不是一成不變的。這就是關鍵的區別。因此,這筆交易中的現金比您投入的要多,而且還會有更多。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And additionally, it's not one deal. The $5 billion represents multiple customers, and each contract is very different. I think that's important to stress.

    此外,這不是一筆交易。 50億美元代表多個客戶,每份合約都有很大不同。我認為強調這一點很重要。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • David Barden - Analyst

    David Barden - Analyst

  • Thank you. I just want to follow up on that, Chris, if I could. So just to make, so if the majority of the costs is coming in, as you said in the press release in the next three to four years, and it's also going out in the next three, four years. So then you've got this minority of the $5 billion that's then realized over the following 20 years. Is that what's, so there's a net kind of zero. And then then there's this tail of income. Is that, how is that not what you said the in press release?

    謝謝。如果可以的話,我只想跟進此事,克里斯。因此,如果大部分成本都將在未來三到四年內進入,正如您在新聞稿中所說,那麼它也會在未來三到四年內支出。那麼你就得到了接下來 20 年實現的 50 億美元中的一小部分。是這樣嗎,所以有淨零。然後就是收入的尾巴。是嗎,怎麼不是你在新聞稿裡說的?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I'm not, I guess I'm not following and we can do it in the after call. I'm not following the net zero. The net is significant and fully fund the liquidity gap that you and your peers that modeled over the next number of years. It's that's now fully addressed.

    我沒有,我想我沒有關注,我們可以在後續通話中做到這一點。我不遵循淨零。這個網路非常重要,可以為您和您的同行在未來幾年建模的流動性缺口提供充足的資金。現在這個問題已經完全解決了。

  • So, and you are right, then, yes, the revenue bleeds in over a much longer timeframe. But that cash allows us to fund the transformation. It allows us to pay down debt and start to attack the debt structure. And again, that's with these first bundle of deals that total $5 billion and there's more coming.

    所以,你是對的,那麼,是的,收入會在更長的時間內流入。但這些現金使我們能夠為轉型提供資金。它使我們能夠償還債務並開始攻擊債務結構。再說一次,這還是第一批總價值 50 億美元的交易,而且還會有更多交易。

  • David Barden - Analyst

    David Barden - Analyst

  • Thank you. And this is my last follow-up. So when you say in the press release that the majority of the cash comes in the next three to four years, and there's roughly equal amount of disbursements, so that the CapEx related to the deal is smaller than. So if I add the deficit and the CapEx necessary to win these deals, that gets us to the breakeven, the liquidity that you're talking about.

    謝謝。這是我最後一次跟進。因此,當您在新聞稿中說,大部分現金將在未來三到四年內到位,並且支出金額大致相等,因此與交易相關的資本支出較小。因此,如果我加上贏得這些交易所需的赤字和資本支出,這將使我們達到損益平衡,也就是你所說的流動性。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • That's right. So said another way, David, the cash contribution, the $5 billion, less the OpEx to support it less the CapEx to support it, leaves us with an amount of cash we pay tax on that cash. And the after-tax impact of that fully funds the liquidity gap that we had modeled over the next few years, from this first half of the year.

    這是正確的。換句話說,大衛,現金貢獻,即 50 億美元,減去支持它的營運支出,再減去支持它的資本支出,我們就剩下了一筆現金,我們需要為這些現金納稅。其稅後影響完全彌補了我們在未來幾年(從今年上半年開始)建模的流動性缺口。

  • David Barden - Analyst

    David Barden - Analyst

  • Thank you, Chris.

    謝謝你,克里斯。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Operator, next question please.

    接線員,請下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

    吉姆·施奈德,高盛。

  • Jim Schneider - Analyst

    Jim Schneider - Analyst

  • Good afternoon, thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could maybe give us some color on within the $5 billion of closed deals. The diversity of customers within that is that a few large hyperscale type customers? Is it a much longer tail of customers, including corporates? And then if you could give us any kind of sense about the same kind of color on the additional $7 billion you're pursuing now?

    下午好,感謝您提出我的問題。我想知道您能否為我們介紹一下 50 億美元已完成交易的情況。客戶的多樣性是指少數大型超大規模類型客戶嗎?是包括企業在內的較長客戶的尾巴嗎?那麼,您是否可以給我們一些關於您現在正在追求的額外 70 億美元的相同顏色的任何感覺?

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So the first $5 billion is that first tranche that I talked about. It's hyperscalers, it's social platforms, it's huge technology companies. It's a cloud company. It's everybody building the AI model, right? Where they're building them and they're training them. They're seeing the data flows and they're saying holy cow, current networks simply don't serve where the data growth is going. So they're building out their data centers because data needs compute, and that is driving the requirements that they bring to us about, hey, can you get me from here to there?

    因此,前 50 億美元是我談到的第一筆資金。它是超大規模企業、社交平台、大型科技公司。這是一家雲端公司。每個人都在建立人工智慧模型,對吧?他們在哪裡建造和訓練他們。他們看到了數據流,他們說天哪,目前的網路根本無法滿足數據成長的需求。因此,他們正在建造數據中心,因為數據需要計算,這推動了他們向我們提出的要求,嘿,你能帶我從這裡到那裡嗎?

  • And by the way, can you connect me back to the main Internet highways, so that I can continue to serve my customers there as well. So that's the first one. The second tranche is, and we're just at the really early phase of that piece, which is enterprises that are using the AI models. And frankly, we're one of them.

    順便說一句,您是否可以將我連接回主要的網路高速公路,以便我也可以繼續為那裡的客戶提供服務。這是第一個。第二部分是,我們正處於該部分的真正早期階段,即正在使用人工智慧模型的企業。坦白說,我們就是其中之一。

  • We're using AI models to transform our business. We have great partnerships with all of these guys to try and to take cost out, drive efficiency, gain insight, more intelligent services. And those enterprises that are leading the way are in health care, retail and financial services for the most part. And they're doing it in a different way. It's not necessarily an end to end customer private network per se. But it's a little bit of fiber and some advanced services on top of it, dramatically increasing their bandwidth and performance needs.

    我們正在使用人工智慧模型來改變我們的業務。我們與所有這些人建立了良好的合作關係,嘗試降低成本、提高效率、獲得洞察力、提供更聰明的服務。那些處於領先地位的企業主要集中在醫療保健、零售和金融服務領域。他們正在以不同的方式做這件事。它本身不一定是端對端客戶專用網路。但它只是一點光纖和一些高級服務,大大增加了他們的頻寬和效能需求。

  • Jim Schneider - Analyst

    Jim Schneider - Analyst

  • Thanks. And then maybe just relative to the network build-out itself. I believe your Analyst Day last year, you referenced that you had $6 million inner city fiber route miles in the network, and you're planning on doubling that, which is, I think the same commentary you made on one of your earlier announcement.

    謝謝。然後也許只是相對於網路建設本身。我相信去年的分析師日,您提到您的網路中有 600 萬美元的內城光纖路由里程,並且您計劃將其增加一倍,我認為這與您在之前的公告中發表的評論相同。

  • So would the pre-funding and the revenue associated with these deals, is that simply accelerating the build-out you already had contemplated and pulling them forward in time? Or is there any change to the profile or complexion of that build plan?

    那麼,與這些交易相關的預籌資金和收入是否會加速您已經考慮過的建設並及時推動它們?或者該構建計劃的輪廓或結構是否有任何變化?

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So I'm, I struggle to figure out where the baseline is from your question. I'll just give you contextually what's happening. We are increasing connectivity both inside the metro areas as well as in the long haul networks. And that's with new routes and pulling more fiber on existing routes. And so it's a combination of all of it. And each deal is a bit different when you overlay them all together what you see is a doubling in metro and a significant increase in long-haul.

    所以我很難從你的問題中找出基線在哪裡。我只會根據上下文向您介紹正在發生的事情。我們正在增加都會區內部以及長途網路的連接性。這就是新路線和在現有路線上拉動更多光纖的情況。所以它是所有這些的組合。當你把它們疊在一起時,每筆交易都有所不同,你會看到地鐵的數量翻了一番,而長途的數量顯著增加。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I would just add to that, that the fiber that we put in the ground already and the fiber that we're adding today supports 400 gig waves. And over the next two years that will scale to 800 and 1.6 terabytes. So the fiber that's going in the ground has enormous expandability. And I don't think, at least I'm unaware of anyone else who's investing at that rate to meet the needs of customers.

    我想補充一點,我們已經埋入地下的光纖和我們今天添加的光纖支援 400 GB 波。在接下來的兩年裡,這個數字將擴大到 800 TB 和 1.6 TB。因此,埋入地下的光纖具有巨大的可擴展性。我不認為,至少我不知道有其他人以這樣的速度進行投資來滿足客戶的需求。

  • Jim Schneider - Analyst

    Jim Schneider - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Next question, please.

    請下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jonathan Chaplin, New Street.

    喬納森卓別林,《新街》。

  • Jonathan Chaplin - Analyst

    Jonathan Chaplin - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for taking the question, guys. First, just to follow up on David's question. I wonder if you could help contextualize the recurring revenue piece that comes on the back of these massive transactions that you're doing? How should we think about these transactions or driving growth in the growth segment, presumably this is sort of all large enterprise at this point?

    偉大的。謝謝你們提出問題,夥伴們。首先,跟進大衛的問題。我想知道您是否可以幫助了解您正在進行的這些大規模交易背後的經常性收入部分?我們該如何看待這些交易或推動成長領域的成長,大概目前這都是大型企業?

  • And then given how important this sort of transformative event for the business is unlike embarrassed to be asking about mass markets, but you did really well on net adds in mass markets this quarter. It's been a sort of a pretty dramatic acceleration in the business over the course of the last two quarters.

    然後,考慮到這種變革事件對企業的重要性,並不尷尬地詢問大眾市場,但本季你們在大眾市場的淨增量方面做得非常好。在過去兩個季度中,業務出現了相當戲劇性的加速。

  • I'm wondering if you can give us some context for what's driving that? And also just speak to sort of the strategy around ARPU a little bit. It looks like ARPU is well below peers. I assume that's sort of a conscious decision to drive penetration. I'm wondering if you, if there's sort of a plan to close the gap over time? Thanks.

    我想知道您是否能為我們提供一些背景資訊來說明是什麼推動了這一趨勢?也只是談談有關 ARPU 的策略。看起來 ARPU 遠低於同行。我認為這是推動滲透的有意識的決定。我想知道你是否有某種計劃來隨著時間的推移縮小差距?謝謝。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. There's a lot in there. I will try to remember. As it relates to the PCF deals, we did say in the video that once you get to scale, and again, as David pointed out, it's anywhere between a three and five year window. In some cases, not all. Customers will ask us to run the networks, we will also provide space and power. So again, if you're powering a signal from San Francisco to New York, long way, you're going to need huts, where you can put rats, you can probably equipment that powers those signals.

    是的。裡面有很多東西。我會盡力記住。由於與 PCF 交易相關,我們在影片中確實說過,一旦規模擴大,正如大衛指出的那樣,它的窗口期在三年到五年之間。在某些情況下,並非全部。客戶會要求我們運行網絡,我們還將提供空間和電力。再說一次,如果你要為從舊金山到紐約的信號提供動力,路途遙遠,你將需要小屋,在那裡你可以放老鼠,你可能需要為這些信號提供動力的設備。

  • And we said that on average, think about that as roughly 10% of the total contract value. And that revenue and cash will be earned in the year the services are provided. So that's, I think, a good broad guideline. As it relates to mass markets, yes, I could not be more proud of the team. They're killing it.

    我們說過,平均而言,大約佔合約總價值的 10%。這些收入和現金將在提供服務的當年獲得。所以我認為這是一個很好的廣泛指導方針。由於它涉及大眾市場,是的,我為這個團隊感到無比自豪。他們正在殺死它。

  • There's been intense focus on driving marketing execution and really a focus on both enablement and penetration. And they kept the enablement machine chugging along, but we're just super pleased that the, is the growth and penetration. They're executing flawlessly right now.

    人們非常關注推動行銷執行,並且真正關注支持和滲透。他們讓賦能機器繼續運轉,但我們非常高興的是,成長和滲透。他們現在執行得完美無缺。

  • On ARPU, that's part of the strategy, yes. I mean, we're not trying to do over underpriced. In fact, we have raised prices where we see the opportunity to do so, and we'll continue to do that. But we're pleased with the way everything's working in combination, ARPU penetration, et cetera. So more to come.

    是的,就 ARPU 而言,這是策略的一部分。我的意思是,我們並不想定價過低。事實上,我們已經在看到機會的情況下提高了價格,我們將繼續這樣做。但我們對一切結合起來的方式、ARPU 滲透率等感到滿意。未來還會有更多。

  • Jonathan Chaplin - Analyst

    Jonathan Chaplin - Analyst

  • Thanks, Chris.

    謝謝,克里斯。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Next question, please.

    請下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Del Deo, MoffettNathanson.

    尼克·德爾·迪奧,莫菲特·內森森。

  • Nick Del Deo - Analyst

    Nick Del Deo - Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. First, Chris, the comments you've made around the cash contribution margins associated with these deals seem to apply mostly to the $5 billion in signed deals. As we think about future deals, like the $7 billion you have in a negotiation, would you expect those to have more favorable cash economics by leveraging some of the fiber being put in the ground for these earlier deals? Or should they be kind of in the same ballpark?

    你好。感謝您回答我的問題。首先,克里斯,您對與這些交易相關的現金貢獻利潤所做的評論似乎主要適用於已簽署的 50 億美元交易。當我們考慮未來的交易時,例如您在談判中獲得的 70 億美元,您是否期望透過利用這些早期交易中埋入的一些光纖來獲得更有利的現金經濟效益?或者他們應該在同一個球場上?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, I would say on average, I think the guidance we gave is pretty good. Again, it's hard to say. So, I mean, I can tell you that, we've had discrete decisions that we've made along the way of do we make some incremental investments now on routes where we may have slightly less capacity to try to help for the future, and that would obviously be a benefit to your point.

    是的,我想說,平均而言,我認為我們給的指導非常好。再說一次,這很難說。所以,我的意思是,我可以告訴你,我們已經做出了一些離散的決定,我們現在是否在我們為未來提供幫助的能力可能稍差的路線上進行一些增量投資,這顯然對你的觀點有好處。

  • But then we don't know yet the full scale of what all of the customers want, and that may require us to do additional things that we don't have today. So it's just again, given the quantum of the deals and the complexity, it's hard to answer right now. But I would tell you that I think the guidance we gave is good general guidance around how to think about it.

    但我們還不知道所有客戶想要什麼,這可能會要求我們做一些目前還沒有的事情。因此,考慮到交易的規模和複雜性,現在很難回答。但我想告訴你,我認為我們給予的指導是關於如何思考它的良好的一般指導。

  • Nick Del Deo - Analyst

    Nick Del Deo - Analyst

  • Okay. So not not trying to get too far ahead of signed deals in terms of the capital commitments and whatnot?

    好的。那麼,在資本承諾等方面,是否不要試圖在簽署的協議之前走得太遠?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Right. I mean, look, we will continue to invest in our network as we have for years, and I view that more as kind of a baseline responsibility. As it relates to big CapEx expansions, we will be very measured in how we do that. This is not a gamble. We will, if we see a route where we know there's going to be demand in the future and we're already pulling fiber, we may pull more.

    正確的。我的意思是,我們將像多年來一樣繼續投資我們的網絡,我認為這更像是一種基本責任。由於它涉及大規模的資本支出擴張,因此我們將非常謹慎地做到這一點。這不是一場賭博。我們會的,如果我們看到一條我們知道未來會有需求的路線,並且我們已經在拉動光纖,我們可能會拉動更多。

  • If it's a route where we've got lots of capacity we want. So it really is route by route, mile by mile that we do those analytics, and it's actually really impressive what the team is doing as they model this out. That's a core capability.

    如果這是一條我們想要的、有大量運力的路線。因此,我們確實是逐條路線、一英里一英里地進行這些分析,而且團隊在建模時所做的事情實際上令人印象深刻。這是一個核心能力。

  • And quite frankly, I think it's one of the reasons in addition to the digital services that we can offer these customers, the customers come to Lumen.

    坦白說,我認為除了我們可以為這些客戶提供數位服務之外,這是客戶來到 Lumen 的原因之一。

  • Nick Del Deo - Analyst

    Nick Del Deo - Analyst

  • Okay. And then, Chris, you quickly alluded to it in your prepared remarks, but I was hoping you could expand a bit on how you're thinking about cannibalization risk, whether current revenue or revenue that you otherwise might have generated. So for example, if you're selling someone dark fiber, I'm guessing you're not selling them ways on that routes going forward.

    好的。然後,克里斯,你在準備好的演講中很快就提到了這一點,但我希望你能詳細說明你如何看待蠶食風險,無論是當前收入還是你本來可能產生的收入。例如,如果您向某人出售暗光纖,我猜您不會在未來的路線上向他們出售。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So think about it this way. Private connectivity fabric is a bundle of everything from dark fiber to waves to IP. It's your network, your way. And these first deals happened to be very large infrastructure, dark fiber [E] kind of deals with some of the other things mixed in.

    所以這樣想吧。專用連接結構是從暗光纖到波再到 IP 的所有內容的捆綁。這是您的網絡,您的方式。這些第一筆交易恰好是非常大型的基礎設施,暗光纖 [E] 類型的交易,其中還混雜著一些其他東西。

  • As time goes on, I would expect that mix to continue to evolve. And so it depends on what, again, what the customer wants, where they want to get as to whether we got some of that fiber already in the ground or whether we need to pull more.

    隨著時間的推移,我預計這種組合會繼續發展。因此,這取決於客戶想要什麼,他們想要從哪裡獲得我們是否已經在地下獲得了一些光纖,或者我們是否需要拉動更多光纖。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would also like to add asa person coming from the tech world into telecom, there's this proclivity to worry about cannibalization rather than evolution of portfolio. And I think that's how we got to a place of being quite overbuilt. And as I look at the demand for these services and our strategy moving forward, we are going to prioritize penetration of our assets to deliver return to our shareholders. And I think that's going to be very accretive long term.

    我還想補充一點,作為一個從科技界進入電信業的人,人們傾向於擔心蠶食而不是投資組合的演變。我認為這就是我們如何達到過度建設的地步。當我審視對這些服務的需求和我們未來的策略時,我們將優先考慮資產的滲透,以便為股東帶來回報。我認為從長遠來看,這將非常具有增值作用。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. This is not to be very clear. We haven't even talked about cannibalization. This isn't cannibalization of legacy at all. This is about net new and where we're going. And this is why we see the upside that we see in our ability to drive returns for shareholders.

    是的。這個就不是很清楚了。我們甚至還沒有討論過蠶食。這根本不是對遺產的蠶食。這是關於淨新和我們要去的地方。這就是為什麼我們看到我們為股東帶來回報的能力所帶來的好處。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Next question, please.

    請下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greg Williams, TD Cowen.

    格雷格·威廉斯,TD·考恩。

  • Greg Williams - Analyst

    Greg Williams - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for taking my questions. We're all trying to size the total addressable market of AI and Kate did a good job of articulating those three phases. Maybe we'll start just with that first phase and all these deals and what (inaudible)

    偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。我們都在努力確定人工智慧的整體潛在市場規模,凱特在闡明這三個階段方面做得很好。也許我們會從第一階段開始,所有這些交易以及什麼(聽不清楚)

  • So really, I think you got to look at it, how many data centers are they creating and we are taking a stab at it earlier this week and from reports or maybe the better way to ask (inaudible). How many new data centers, are you feeding roughly $4 billion to $5billion of deals? Is it like 10? Is it like 30? I am just trying to get a sense of that, and it helps us with our scope? Thanks.

    所以說真的,我認為你必須看看他們正在創建多少個資料中心,我們正在本週早些時候根據報告或也許更好的詢問方式(聽不清楚)來嘗試一下。您正在為多少個新資料中心提供約 40 億至 50 億美元的交易?好像是10個嗎?好像是30嗎?我只是想了解這一點,這對我們的範圍有幫助嗎?謝謝。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean, we're not tracking that really. What we're tracking is across the group of technology companies that we're speaking to, which is at this point in the dozens, what do their needs look like? What are the synergies between the request so that we can drive economies of scale and how can we drive to closure as fast as possible so we can group them in those ways by route, and by how operationally we can deliver upon these.

    我的意思是,我們並沒有真正追蹤這一點。我們正在追蹤的是與我們交談的科技公司集團,目前有數十家,他們的需求是什麼樣的?請求之間的協同作用是什麼,以便我們能夠推動規模經濟,以及我們如何盡快實現關閉,以便我們可以按路線以這些方式對它們進行分組,以及我們如何在操作上實現這些要求。

  • The one thing we do look at when we model it out is where's the power. Data centers need power space, cooling and fiber. And I think the energy piece of the equation is where can you build a data center that you can deliver a green footprint because there's also that piece of it as well. And so it's pretty complex.

    當我們進行建模時,我們確實要考慮的一件事是力量在哪裡。資料中心需要電力空間、冷卻和光纖。我認為這個等式中的能源部分是你可以在哪裡建立一個可以提供綠色足跡的資料中心,因為也有這一部分。所以它非常複雜。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Next question, please.

    請下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Frank Louthan, Raymond James.

    弗蘭克·勞森,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Frank Louthan - Analyst

    Frank Louthan - Analyst

  • Great, thank you. Maybe you can give us a little more color within the sort of $5 billion group. Can you give us an idea of the largest deal as a percentage of revenue. And then as it relates to the $5 billion in bookings here, what do you, what's an average annual bookings and how much is it up this year, including the PCF deals? Thanks.

    太好了謝謝。也許你可以在這個價值 50 億美元的集團中為我們提供更多的色彩。您能為我們介紹一下最大的交易占收入的百分比嗎?然後,當它與這裡 50 億美元的預訂量相關時,您怎麼看,平均每年預訂量是多少?謝謝。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So yes, in terms of the biggest one, again, that starts to get close to really starting to disclose stuff around customers because if I give you that, then it's just a guessing game as to which customer it is. And that's not fair to the customer. And frankly, it's sensitive information for us. So we're not going to give that.

    所以,是的,就最大的一個而言,再次開始接近真正開始披露有關客戶的信息,因為如果我給你這些信息,那麼這只是一個關於客戶是誰的猜測遊戲。這對客戶不公平。坦白說,這對我們來說是敏感資訊。所以我們不會提供這個。

  • As it relates to the bookings, I want to make sure I understand, are you asking that once we get the scale, how much, how does that relate to what we're selling today? Is that the question?

    由於它與預訂有關,我想確保我理解,您是否想問,一旦我們獲得規模,有多少,這與我們今天銷售的產品有什麼關係?這是問題嗎?

  • Frank Louthan - Analyst

    Frank Louthan - Analyst

  • Well, it seems, maybe I'm misusing the term here, but it seems like you've done $5 billion in sales for here, which sounds like a bookings number. Not necessarily something hitting revenue in the income statement. What is, I'm just getting an idea of what the incremental upside from that, from bookings is in '24 versus, say, '23, inclusive of this bump from the PCF deals?

    嗯,看來,也許我在這裡誤用了這個術語,但看起來你們已經為這裡完成了 50 億美元的銷售額,這聽起來像是一個預訂數字。不一定會影響損益表中的收入。我只是想知道,24 年與 23 年相比,預訂量的增量優勢是多少,包括 PCF 交易帶來的成長?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, I would say from a modeling standpoint, I would think about that as largely all incremental. We always sell dark fiber. And I think the dark fiber run rate, I'd have to go back and check Frank, because I don't know off the top of my head, but ex the deals, dark fiber is obviously in the growth bucket, and we continue to grow that segment.

    是的,我想說,從建模的角度來看,我認為這很大程度上都是增量的。我們總是銷售深色光纖。我認為暗光纖運行率,我必須回去檢查弗蘭克,因為我不知道我的頭腦,但除交易外,暗光纖顯然在增長桶中,我們繼續來擴大該細分市場。

  • But this, yes, we had the state of California in the fall that we mentioned, right? So that was a big deal. But again, we've done those in the past, and we'll do other deals like that going forward. This shift that we're seeing right now, which quite frankly, I don't think comes as a surprise, right? There's been so much research and communication around the amount of investment required to support AI.

    但是,是的,我們在秋天有我們提到的加利福尼亞州,對吧?所以這是一件大事。但同樣,我們過去已經做過這些交易,未來我們還會做其他類似的交易。我們現在看到的這種轉變,坦白說,我認為這並不令人意外,對吧?關於支援人工智慧所需的投資金額,已經有許多研究和交流。

  • And everybody forgot about the fact that the data doesn't originate in the data center and stay in the data center, right? It's got to get in, it's got to get out. So what we're really seeing is that now finally being realized and I would say that's largely incremental.

    每個人都忘記了這樣一個事實:數據並非源自數據中心並保留在數據中心,對吧?它必須進來,它必須出去。所以我們真正看到的是現在終於實現了,我想說這在很大程度上是漸進的。

  • Frank Louthan - Analyst

    Frank Louthan - Analyst

  • Okay. And one quick thing. Did you, can you clarify the split in the increase in free cash flow between the asset sale and the upfront cash?

    好的。還有一件事很快。您能否澄清資產出售和預付現金之間自由現金流增加的分配?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • The asset sale was, I think, after-tax $190 million.

    我認為資產出售的稅後價值為 1.9 億美元。

  • Frank Louthan - Analyst

    Frank Louthan - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Next question, please, operator.

    接線員,請下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Luebchow, Wells Fargo.

    艾瑞克‧盧布喬 (Eric Luebchow),富國銀行。

  • Eric Luebchow - Analyst

    Eric Luebchow - Analyst

  • I appreciate for taking the question. Thank you. So you talked about getting back to the EBITDA growth in 2026 after a step-down next year. How should we think about the visibility of getting back to revenue growth given the trajectory of bookings you've had. And it sounds like these PCF deals since they'll be amortized over a very long contract duration will certainly help revenues. But I don't know if they're enough to really get you back to revenue growth by 2026 as well? If you could kind of talk through the moving parts there. Thanks.

    我很感謝您提出這個問題。謝謝。所以你談到了在明年下降後 2026 年 EBITDA 恢復成長。考慮到您的預訂軌跡,我們應該如何考慮恢復收入成長的可見性。聽起來這些 PCF 交易因為它們將在很長的合約期限內攤銷,肯定會有助於收入。但我不知道它們是否足以真正讓您在 2026 年之前恢復收入成長?如果你能談談那裡的活動部分。謝謝。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So again, I don't want to get too close to guidance here. As we've said, revenue will obviously lag the EBITDA turnaround because of our ability to drive significant cost takeout as we fix what's broken, right? And we go from four networks to one. So the timing on the revenue, which I guess what we said most recently is that's going to lag by at least a year.

    是的。再說一次,我不想在這裡太接近指導。正如我們所說,收入顯然會落後於 EBITDA 的周轉,因為我們有能力在修復問題時推動大量成本削減,對嗎?我們從四個網路變成了一個。因此,我想我們最近所說的收入時間將至少落後一年。

  • And I think that still holds in the situation. But again, the comments that I made, I want to be really clear about this around kind of directionally '25 and '26. To be very clear, that excludes the $7 billion set of discussions we're having right now, right? We don't count that until it comes in because just like this first batch of deals, they're very hard to predict one what, what's required to deliver them. And two, what the timing is?

    我認為這種情況仍然存在。但同樣,我發表的評論,我想在“25”和“26”的方向上真正清楚地表達這一點。需要非常明確的是,這不包括我們現在正在進行的 70 億美元的討論,對嗎?在它進來之前我們不會計算它,因為就像第一批交易一樣,他們很難預測交付它們需要什麼。第二,時間是什麼?

  • Eric Luebchow - Analyst

    Eric Luebchow - Analyst

  • Yes, understood. And just one follow up. These new data center deals, the ones you've announced and then the ones that are in your pipeline, you tied into the inner city fiber investments that, where you'll double your fiber capacity over the next handful of years. We've heard a lot about data center deals moving to more further out rural locations, given power constraints in a lot of markets.

    是的,明白了。只需一個跟進。這些新的資料中心交易,您已經宣布的交易,以及正在醞釀中的交易,都與內城光纖投資掛鉤,在未來幾年內,您的光纖容量將增加一倍。鑑於許多市場的電力限制,我們聽到很多關於資料中心交易轉移到更遠的農村地區的消息。

  • So can you talk at all about like splits between middle mile, long haul fiber versus metro fiber that's in your pipeline to support these types of deals, given data center deals are being done in further out locations, It seems based on what we've seen? Thanks.

    那麼,考慮到資料中心交易是在更遠的地點進行的,您能否談談中英里、長途光纖與城域光纖之間的劃分,這些光纖正在您的管道中支援這些類型的交易,這似乎是基於我們已經了解的情況看到了嗎?謝謝。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • What I'll say is this, our network, one of the reasons why it's so attractive. And by the way, when I say network, it's fiber and in some cases, it's conduit, right? It's this vision that was built 25 years ago. And now because of the advances in fiber technology, we have the ability to monetize it. So it's both.

    我要說的是,我們的人脈是它如此有吸引力的原因之一。順便說一句,當我說網路時,它是光纖,在某些情況下,它是管道,對嗎?這個願景是 25 年前建立的。現在,由於光纖技術的進步,我們有能力將其貨幣化。所以兩者都是。

  • It's both of those things. And so I would say it's a strength of both the inner city and the Metro. The customers broadly speaking, are wanting to access. And as we continue to invest in things like waves, it will be to deliver against both of those.

    這兩件事都是如此。所以我想說這是內城和地鐵的優點。從廣義上講,客戶都希望訪問。當我們繼續投資波浪之類的東西時,我們將能夠應對這兩個問題。

  • Waves customers want two things. They want to get where they want to get, and they want to get there quickly. And I don't know if anyone else in the space who is investing the kind of money that we are to make sure that happens.

    Waves 的客戶想要兩件事。他們想要到達他們想要到達的地方,並且他們想要快速到達那裡。我不知道這個領域是否還有其他人正在投資我們確保實現這一目標的資金。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President- Investor Relations

  • Next question, please.

    請下一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Since there are no more questions, I will now turn the conference back over to Kate Johnson, CEO for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

    由於沒有其他問題了,我現在將會議轉回執行長凱特·約翰遜 (Kate Johnson) 致閉幕詞。請繼續。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks so much. To wrap, it's an exciting time for Lumen as AI charts the course for our pivoted growth, and our future is very, very bright. Thanks for joining today. We look forward to meeting you at the upcoming conferences and updating you on the significant progress we're making in transforming our company. Have a great night.

    非常感謝。總而言之,對於 Lumen 來說,這是一個令人興奮的時刻,因為人工智慧為我們的關鍵成長指明了方向,我們的未來非常非常光明。感謝您今天加入。我們期待在即將舉行的會議上與您見面,並向您介紹我們在公司轉型方面所取得的重大進展。祝你有個愉快的夜晚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。