Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Lumen Technologies 舉行了 2023 年第三季財報電話會議,討論了公司重組和簡化、營運改善以及新市場擴張方面的進展。他們強調,他們的重點是推動其業務領域的滲透和成長。

該公司討論了他們的債務協議、財務表現以及減少資本支出的計劃。他們承認債務結構和市場噪音對銷售的影響,但表示對改善收入趨勢有信心。 Lumen 預計光纖支援會減少,資本支出也會減少,但計劃使用基於資產的證券化來融資。

他們還討論了他們的消費者業務以及降低纖維含量的決定。執行長提到了與債權人的談判以及公司對其扭虧為盈策略的信心。他們還討論了出售部門的可能性,並與債權人分享了未公開的資訊。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to the Lumen Technologies Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, October 31, 2023.

    您好,歡迎參加 Lumen Technologies 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)謹此提醒,本次會議將於 2023 年 10 月 31 日星期二進行錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike McCormack, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Mike McCormack。請繼續。

  • Michael L. McCormack - SVP of IR

    Michael L. McCormack - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Darcy. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Lumen Technologies Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. On the call today are Kate Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Stansbury, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Rahul Modi, our Treasurer.

    謝謝,達西。大家下午好,感謝您參加 Lumen Technologies 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的是總裁兼執行長凱特·約翰遜 (Kate Johnson); Chris Stansbury,執行副總裁兼財務長;還有我們的財政部長拉胡爾·莫迪。

  • Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement on Slide 2 of our third quarter 2023 presentation, which notes that this conference call may include forward-looking statements subject to certain risks and uncertainties. All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements on Slide 2 and the risk factors in our SEC filings.

    在我們開始之前,我需要提請您注意我們 2023 年第三季簡報投影片 2 上的安全港聲明,其中指出本次電話會議可能包括受某些風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性聲明。所有前瞻性陳述應與投影片 2 上的警示性陳述以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素結合考慮。

  • We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures, which can be found in our earnings press release. In addition, certain metrics discussed today exclude costs or special items as detailed in our earnings materials, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of the Lumen website.

    我們將提及與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標一致的某些非 GAAP 財務指標,這些指標可以在我們的收益新聞稿中找到。此外,今天討論的某些指標不包括我們的收益資料中詳細說明的成本或特殊項目,這些資料可以在 Lumen 網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Kate.

    有了這個,我會把它交給凱特。

  • Kathleen E. Johnson - President, CEO & Director

    Kathleen E. Johnson - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Mike. Good afternoon, everybody. I'm excited to share a summary of the material progress we've made in our efforts to reposition Lumen for growth. I'll start with some major structural accomplishments.

    謝謝,麥克。大家下午好。我很高興與大家分享我們在重新定位 Lumen 以實現成長的努力中所取得的實質進展的總結。我將從一些重大的結構性成就開始。

  • First, we've made significant progress in simplifying Lumen with 2 divestitures. We expect to close the sale of our EMEA business to Colt tomorrow, November 1, earlier than planned. This transaction will generate approximately $1.5 billion in net after-tax proceeds, which we anticipate will be used for debt reduction. Second, 2 weeks ago, we announced the sale of the majority of our CDN contracts, a transaction that will enable us to continue to focus our resources on businesses where we can differentiate ourselves in the market at scale.

    首先,我們透過兩次剝離在簡化 Lumen 方面取得了重大進展。我們預計明天(即 11 月 1 日)完成將 EMEA 業務出售給 Colt,比計劃提前。此交易將產生約 15 億美元的稅後淨收益,我們預計該收益將用於減少債務。其次,兩週前,我們宣佈出售大部分 CDN 合同,這項交易將使我們能夠繼續將資源集中在能夠在市場上大規模脫穎而出的業務上。

  • Next, the balance sheet. We successfully reached a broad agreement with creditors that hold over $7 billion of the outstanding debt of the company and its subsidiaries. The transaction will extend a large portion of our debt maturities and remove questions regarding the company's compliance with its debt covenants. The creditor group will also provide $1.2 billion of new financing. The closing of the transaction is subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions, including completing work with our banks to extend our revolver in term loan A and getting approval from other creditors as needed.

    接下來是資產負債表。我們成功與持有該公司及其子公司逾 70 億美元未償債務的債權人達成了廣泛協議。該交易將延長我們大部分債務的期限,並消除有關公司遵守債務契約的問題。債權人集團也將提供12億美元的新融資。交易的完成取決於某些條件的滿足,包括與我們的銀行完成延長我們的循環貸款 A 的工作,並根據需要獲得其他債權人的批准。

  • In addition to restructuring the balance sheet, we've made the difficult decision to reshape and rightsize Lumen for growth. We're taking immediate actions, which will result in about 4% fewer people inside the company. This reorg, along with additional optimization initiatives, will generate annualized savings of approximately $300 million. And as you might expect, this is a difficult but necessary decision given the revenue pressure we felt from the noise in the market regarding our creditor discussions as well as global macroeconomic pressures.

    除了重組資產負債表外,我們還做出了艱難的決定,對 Lumen 進行重組和調整規模以實現成長。我們正在立即採取行動,這將導致公司內部人員減少約 4%。此次重組加上其他優化舉措,每年將節省約 3 億美元。正如您所預料的那樣,考慮到我們從市場上有關債權人討論的噪音以及全球宏觀經濟壓力中感受到的收入壓力,這是一個困難但必要的決定。

  • These proactive steps to address our balance sheet and lower our cost base will reduce the noise, it will improve our agility and efficiency, and it will enable us to better compete in markets we serve.

    這些解決我們的資產負債表和降低成本基礎的積極措施將減少噪音,提高我們的敏捷性和效率,並使我們能夠更好地在我們服務的市場中競爭。

  • Now I'd like to talk about some of the operational improvements we're seeing in our Business segment. As we've shared, we have a 3-pronged strategy to transform this business: one, secure the base; two, drive commercial excellence; and three, innovate for growth. And we're making progress against all 3.

    現在我想談談我們在業務部門看到的一些營運改善。正如我們所分享的,我們有一個三管齊下的策略來改造這項業務:一是鞏固基礎;二是保護基礎。二、推動商業卓越;三是創新促成長。我們在這三個方面都取得了進展。

  • Securing the base boils down to 5 things: minimizing disconnects, maximizing installations, driving increased usage, renewing customer contracts and migrating our customers to newer technologies. If we get these 5 things right, we reduce churn. So let me share this quarter's sequential performance for these 5 metrics in our North America large enterprise and mid-market sales channels.

    確保基礎安全可歸結為五件事:最大限度地減少斷線、最大限度地增加安裝、推動使用量的增加、續簽客戶合約以及將我們的客戶遷移到更新的技術。如果我們做好這 5 件事,我們就能減少客戶流失。因此,讓我分享本季北美大型企業和中階市場銷售管道這 5 個指標的連續表現。

  • We saw a 4% reduction in disconnects, a 9% increase in installs, a 5% increase in usage, a 4% increase in VPN customer renewals and a 21% increase in voice migrations. With heavy use of data and analytics to understand customer behavior and an agile approach, we created a win formula to address churn and delivered improved business revenue performance this quarter. Obviously, a lot more work to do here, but we do see a path to success.

    我們發現斷開連線減少了 4%,安裝量增加了 9%,使用量增加了 5%,VPN 客戶續訂量增加了 4%,語音遷移量增加了 21%。透過大量使用數據和分析來了解客戶行為和敏捷方法,我們創建了一個解決客戶流失問題的獲勝公式,並在本季度實現了更高的業務收入績效。顯然,這裡還有很多工作要做,但我們確實看到了一條成功之路。

  • Let's look at driving commercial excellence. This is about sales execution that ultimately yields growth. Simply put, there's just two ways to grow: you either sell to net new customers or you sell more products and services to existing ones. We're making progress against both of these growth vectors. First, we added more than 2,500 new logo customers so far this year across large enterprise, mid-market and public sector segments despite the headwinds I described earlier. Year-over-year, we've seen 47% more Grow products sold to existing customers or 16% normalized for a large deal that I'll talk about in just a moment. Finally, we achieved 14% higher seller productivity year-over-year, a very impressive metric given how many new sellers we have.

    讓我們看看推動商業卓越。這是最終帶來成長的銷售執行力。簡而言之,成長只有兩種方法:要麼向淨新客戶銷售,要麼向現有客戶銷售更多產品和服務。我們正在針對這兩個成長方向取得進展。首先,儘管存在我之前描述的不利因素,今年到目前為止,我們在大型企業、中型市場和公共部門領域增加了 2,500 多個新商標客戶。與去年同期相比,我們發現向現有客戶出售的 Grow 產品增加了 47%,或者對於我稍後會談到的大宗交易而言,增加了 16%。最後,我們的賣家生產力年增了 14%,考慮到我們擁有多少新賣家,這是一個非常令人印象深刻的指標。

  • A big part of driving commercial excellence is going after net new markets. For example, we see huge potential in the digital inclusion market, which presents an opportunity for Lumen to help states bring reliable broadband connectivity to unserved and underserved markets. We won our first large multiyear deal in this space, representing over $400 million of revenue when the State of California chose Lumen as a key strategic partner. We're now bringing the same commercial framework for public-private partnerships to other states as they seek to bridge of the digital divide.

    推動商業卓越的一個重要部分是追求淨新市場。例如,我們看到數位包容性市場的巨大潛力,這為 Lumen 提供了一個機會,幫助各國為未提供服務和服務不足的市場提供可靠的寬頻連線。當加州選擇 Lumen 作為關鍵戰略合作夥伴時,我們贏得了該領域的第一個大型多年期交易,收入超過 4 億美元。我們現在正在為其他州提供相同的公私合作商業框架,幫助他們彌合數位落差。

  • All right. The third prong of our business strategy, innovating for growth. This is all about bringing net new capabilities like network as a service, or NaaS, to the market and gaining access to new profit pools. We've made great progress driving adoption of our first NaaS offering called Lumen Internet On-Demand. This new digital capability is now generally available and has lighthouse customers in 13 industries, including health care, technology, insurance, retail, manufacturing and public sector, to name a few.

    好的。我們業務策略的第三個面向是創新促進成長。這一切都是為了將網路即服務 (NaaS) 等全新功能推向市場,並獲得新的利潤池。我們在推動第一個 NaaS 產品(稱為 Lumen Internet On-Demand)的採用方面取得了巨大進展。這種新的數位功能現已普遍可用,並擁有 13 個行業的燈塔客戶,其中包括醫療保健、技術、保險、零售、製造和公共部門等。

  • In addition to selling NaaS directly to customers, Lumen is also leveraging our partner ecosystem to drive scale. Customers can buy Lumen Internet On-Demand through 136 enabled data centers in 10 different markets across North America through our great partners, Digital Realty and Equinix.

    除了直接向客戶銷售 NaaS 之外,Lumen 還利用我們的合作夥伴生態系統來擴大規模。客戶可以透過我們優秀的合作夥伴 Digital Realty 和 Equinix 在北美 10 個不同市場的 136 個啟用的資料中心購買 Lumen Internet On-Demand。

  • Our NaaS product road map is industry-defining. So we'll be adding -- soon, we'll be adding API capability to allow customers to activate NaaS in their own business applications, then we'll layer in security with DDoS, and then we'll offer dynamic bandwidth capability for ultimate usage flexibility. Now together with our Edge Fabric and ExaSwitch, Lumen NaaS is setting the table for a new market category for the modern communication infrastructure platform, one that optimizes application performance across hybrid architectures of on-prem, at the edge and multi-cloud, and one that makes room for rapidly changing network needs as Gen AI becomes mainstream. We are cloudifying telecom. It's going to be disruptive to the industry, and we are playing to win.

    我們的 NaaS 產品路線圖具有產業定義性。因此,我們將添加——很快,我們將添加API 功能,以允許客戶在自己的業務應用程式中啟動NaaS,然後我們將透過DDoS 實現安全分層,然後我們將提供動態頻寬功能,以實現最終的使用靈活性。現在,Lumen NaaS 與我們的 Edge Fabric 和 ExaSwitch 一起,為現代通訊基礎設施平台的新市場類別奠定了基礎,該平台跨本地、邊緣和多雲的混合架構優化應用程式效能,還有一個隨著人工智慧成為主流,這為快速變化的網路需求騰出了空間。我們正在將電信雲端化。這將對產業產生顛覆性影響,而我們正在努力爭取勝利。

  • All right. Turning to Mass Markets. We have strong growth in Quantum Fiber enablements, where our construction factory is operating well. Now that said, our subscriber adds this quarter were below our expectations. During the quarter, we took significant steps to improve operations as we combine CenturyLink Fiber with Quantum Fiber, merging all inventory and field tech system into one and vastly improved order-to-install commitments. While we believe these operational activities, coupled with lower move activity, dampen subscriber adds this quarter, we do know that we need to do better selling and penetrating existing builds.

    好的。轉向大眾市場。我們的量子光纖支援業務成長強勁,我們的建築工廠運作良好。話雖如此,本季我們的訂戶增加量低於我們的預期。在本季度,我們採取了重大措施來改善運營,將 CenturyLink Fiber 與 Quantum Fiber 結合,將所有庫存和現場技術系統合併為一個,並大大改善了訂單安裝承諾。雖然我們相信這些營運活動,加上行動活動的減少,抑制了本季訂閱者的增加,但我們確實知道,我們需要更好地銷售和滲透現有版本。

  • Therefore, as we face a more constrained capital environment ahead, we'll prioritize sales and marketing investments over enablement growth. While we will still build at a healthy pace, we should see greater penetration rates and a higher return on capital spent in mass markets.

    因此,當我們未來面臨更受限的資本環境時,我們將優先考慮銷售和行銷投資,而不是支持成長。雖然我們仍將以健康的步伐進行建設,但我們應該會看到大眾市場的滲透率更高,資本回報率更高。

  • All right. To wrap up, I've often spoken about rebuilding Lumen starting with our people. We've been hard at work doing that for the past 12 months, and I'm proud to share that during the third quarter, Lumen was recognized by U.S. News & World Report as one of the 2024 Best Places to Work in telecom. It's our first time being named to the list, and I think it demonstrates the power of creating a culture that enables change.

    好的。最後,我經常談到從我們的員工開始重建 Lumen。在過去12 個月裡,我們一直在努力做到這一點,我很自豪地與大家分享,在第三季度,Lumen 被《美國新聞與世界報道》評為2024 年電信業最佳工作場所之一。這是我們第一次入選該名單,我認為這展示了創造一種促進變革的文化的力量。

  • Transformation is a messy business. And despite extremely challenging headwinds, we've made big and important structural changes to the company. And equally important, we've made measurable operational improvements. There's lots more to do, but we're confident in our strategy to pivot Lumen towards stabilization and growth.

    轉型是一件混亂的事。儘管面臨著極具挑戰性的阻力,我們還是對公司進行了重大的結構性變革。同樣重要的是,我們已經取得了可衡量的營運改善。還有很多工作要做,但我們對推動 Lumen 走向穩定和成長的策略充滿信心。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

    這樣,我會將電話轉給克里斯。

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Kate, and good afternoon, everyone. Kate spoke about our progress in transforming and disrupting telecom and playing to win. She also spoke of our success in reaching an agreement with a group of creditors to extend our debt maturities.

    謝謝凱特,大家下午好。凱特談到了我們在電信轉型和顛覆以及致勝方面的進展。她還談到我們成功與一群債權人達成協議以延長我們的債務期限。

  • On our Q2 earnings call, we said we viewed the formation of the creditor group as an opportunity to both fund our future as well as address our challenging maturities profile. The agreement we announced today meets both of those objectives and will allow us to continue our transformation journey and the disruption of telecom.

    在第二季財報電話會議上,我們表示,我們將債權人集團的組成視為一個機會,既可以為我們的未來提供資金,也可以解決我們充滿挑戰的到期狀況。我們今天宣布的協議滿足了這兩個目標,並使我們能夠繼續我們的轉型之旅和電信顛覆。

  • Before covering our third quarter results, I would like to take a few minutes to discuss several items which will impact our financial trends going forward. As Kate mentioned, we closed the CDN sale earlier this month, and we expect to close the sale of our EMEA business tomorrow, November 1. The CDN sale will not have a material impact on our financials. We estimate that these CDN contracts contributed roughly $20 million in revenue and $10 million in adjusted EBITDA to our third quarter 2023 results. Keep in mind that these CDN contracts were part of our Harvest portfolio and have received little capital investment in recent years. The valuation, while not disclosed, reflects the declining nature of the revenue of these on contracts. We plan to wind down the remaining CDN contracts in 2024.

    在介紹我們第三季的業績之前,我想花幾分鐘討論一些將影響我們未來財務趨勢的項目。正如 Kate 所提到的,我們在本月初結束了 CDN 銷售,預計將於明天(11 月 1 日)結束 EMEA 業務的銷售。CDN 銷售不會對我們的財務狀況產生重大影響。我們估計,這些 CDN 合約為我們 2023 年第三季的業績貢獻了大約 2000 萬美元的收入和 1000 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。請記住,這些 CDN 合約是我們 Harvest 投資組合的一部分,近年來幾乎沒有收到任何資本投資。該估值雖然未披露,但反映了這些合約收入的下降性質。我們計劃在 2024 年終止剩餘的 CDN 合約。

  • For the pending divestiture of our EMEA business, our 2023 outlook assumed a full fourth quarter contribution of approximately $140 million in revenue, $50 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $30 million in CapEx. Separately, we are expecting a tax refund of approximately $900 million previously not included within the financial outlook. Approximately $200 million of the refund will be applied to pay 2023 estimated taxes, and we are expecting a cash refund of approximately $700 million in the first quarter of next year.

    對於即將剝離的 EMEA 業務,我們對 2023 年的展望假設第四季度的收入貢獻約為 1.4 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 5000 萬美元,資本支出為 3000 萬美元。另外,我們預計先前未包含在財務前景中的約 9 億美元退稅。其中約 2 億美元的退款將用於支付 2023 年的預計稅款,我們預計明年第一季將獲得約 7 億美元的現金退款。

  • While we expect to receive a near-term cash benefit, this is in part due to an accelerated use of our NOLs. Some of the benefits will reverse over the next few years. There are counterbalancing impacts related to the CDN contracts and the pending EMEA transaction that make us comfortable keeping our full year 2023 free cash flow guidance of $0 to $200 million.

    雖然我們預計將獲得短期現金收益,但這在一定程度上是由於我們的 NOL 的加速使用。一些好處將在未來幾年內逆轉。 CDN 合約和懸而未決的 EMEA 交易存在抵消影響,這使我們能夠放心地將 2023 年全年自由現金流指引保持在 0 至 2 億美元之間。

  • As Kate mentioned, the macro environment and the overhang of our creditor discussions has resulted in revenue headwinds, which will pressure our results over the next few quarters. With the creditor agreement reached today and continued execution against our plan, we expect to see sustained improving revenue trends in mid-2024. In addition, we expect the cost actions that Kate mentioned earlier to help address near-term pressures on adjusted EBITDA. Additionally, we've been clear that in the wake of transactions over the last 1.5 years, our organization needs to be more nimble and continue to work through transaction-related dissynergies.

    正如凱特所提到的,宏觀環境和債權人討論的懸而未決導致了收入逆風,這將給我們未來幾季的業績帶來壓力。隨著今天達成債權人協議並繼續執行我們的計劃,我們預計 2024 年中期收入趨勢將持續改善。此外,我們預計凱特先前提到的成本行動將有助於解決調整後 EBITDA 的近期壓力。此外,我們已經明確,在過去 1.5 年的交易之後,我們的組織需要更加靈活,並繼續解決與交易相關的不協同效應。

  • I'll now discuss in more detail the financial summary of our third quarter. As I've done throughout this year, I'll reference our financial performance primarily on a sequential basis for better comparability as the year ago period included the impacts of our divested LATAM and ILEC 20-state businesses. Keep in mind, when the impacts of divestitures and commercial agreements are excluded from results, our year-over-year growth rates are substantially better than the reported rates.

    我現在將更詳細地討論第三季的財務摘要。正如我今年全年所做的那樣,我將主要按順序參考我們的財務業績,以便更好地進行比較,因為去年同期包括我們剝離的拉丁美洲和 ILEC 20 州業務的影響。請記住,當從結果中排除資產剝離和商業協議的影響時,我們的同比成長率大大高於報告的成長率。

  • Our third quarter total revenue declined 0.5% on a sequential basis to $3.641 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.049 billion in the third quarter with a 28.8% margin. Free cash flow was $43 million in the third quarter.

    我們第三季總營收季減 0.5% 至 36.41 億美元。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 10.49 億美元,利潤率為 28.8%。第三季自由現金流為 4,300 萬美元。

  • Next, I'll review detailed revenue results for the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, reported revenue was down 17.1% with the impact of divestitures and commercial agreements representing approximately 73% of the reported decline. Within our two key segments, Business revenue declined 0.1% sequentially to $2.894 billion, and Mass Markets revenue declined 2.2% sequentially to $747 million.

    接下來,我將回顧該季度的詳細收入結果。報告收入年減 17.1%,其中資產剝離和商業協議的影響約佔報告收入下降的 73%。在我們的兩個關鍵部門中,業務收入環比下降 0.1% 至 28.94 億美元,大眾市場收入環比下降 2.2% 至 7.47 億美元。

  • Within our Enterprise channels, which is our business segment excluding wholesale, revenue grew 1.1% sequentially. Be aware that much of this strength is driven by growth in other products, which tend to fluctuate quarter-to-quarter. However, excluding other products and the impact of divested businesses, our subtotal of grow, nurture and harvest revenue declined at the slowest rate we've seen in years. That said, we continue to expect near-term variability in the revenue trends. Our exposure to declining harvest revenue is now less than 18% of Enterprise channel revenue and was down approximately 70 basis points sequentially.

    在我們的企業通路(不包括批發的業務部門)中,營收季增了 1.1%。請注意,這種優勢很大程度上是由其他產品的成長所推動的,這些產品往往會按季度波動。然而,排除其他產品和剝離業務的影響,我們的種植、培育和收穫收入小計以多年來最慢的速度下降。也就是說,我們繼續預期收入趨勢的近期變化。我們面臨的收穫收入下降風險目前不到企業通路收入的 18%,比上一季下降了約 70 個基點。

  • Large Enterprise revenue grew 0.3% sequentially in the third quarter. Large Enterprise revenue trends improved compared to the second quarter year-over-year when excluding the impact of divested businesses driven primarily by continued strong trends in the Grow products segment due to demand for IP, dark fiber and colocation and moderating declines in Nurture and Harvest.

    第三季大型企業營收季增 0.3%。與第二季相比,大型企業收入趨勢年有所改善,排除了剝離業務的影響,這主要是由於對IP、暗光纖和主機代管的需求以及培育和收穫方面的下降放緩,增長產品領域持續強勁的趨勢推動的。

  • Now moving on to public sector. Revenue grew 7.2% sequentially. Excluding the impact of our divested businesses, public sector trends improved year-over-year primarily due to higher other revenue, which includes nonrecurring equipment and IT solutions, improvement in Grow revenue and moderating declines in Nurture and Harvest products during the third quarter.

    現在轉向公共部門。營收季增 7.2%。排除我們剝離業務的影響,公共部門趨勢同比有所改善,主要是由於第三季度其他收入增加,其中包括非經常性設備和 IT 解決方案、成長收入的改善以及培育和收穫產品的下降放緩。

  • Mid-market revenue declined 1.8% sequentially. Excluding the impacts of our divested businesses, third quarter revenue trends worsened year-over-year. Strength in Grow products were driven primarily by IP, UC&C and enterprise broadband, which is more than offset by lower VPN revenue within Nurture. Wholesale revenue declined 3.4% sequentially. We expect our wholesale channel will likely continue to decline over time as it is an area we manage for cash.

    中端市場營收季減 1.8%。排除我們剝離業務的影響,第三季收入趨勢比去年同期惡化。 Grow 產品的實力主要由 IP、UC&C 和企業寬頻推動,但 Nurture 內 VPN 收入的下降足以抵消這一影響。批發收入季減 3.4%。我們預計我們的批發管道可能會隨著時間的推移而繼續下降,因為這是我們管理現金的領域。

  • Now moving on to business product life cycle reporting. Grow products revenue declined 1.1% sequentially. Excluding the impacts of our divested businesses, this quarter's results showed moderating year-over-year growth. While results can vary in any given quarter, we expect sustained strength in this area as we execute on our turnaround. Grow continues to represent approximately 39% of our Business segment and carried an approximate 82% direct margin this quarter.

    現在轉向商業產品生命週期報告。種植產品收入季減 1.1%。排除我們剝離業務的影響,本季的業績顯示年成長放緩。雖然任何特定季度的業績都可能有所不同,但我們預計,隨著我們實施扭虧為盈,這一領域將持續強勁。 Grow 繼續占我們業務部門的約 39%,本季直接利潤率約 82%。

  • Within Nurture and Harvest, we expect -- or we continue to expect headwinds in these categories as we take proactive steps to migrate customers to newer technologies. This improves our customers' experience and provides an uplift in the lifetime value of those customers for Lumen. As Kate mentioned, we continue to see positive leading indicators that our initiatives are working, and it will take some time to be reflected in our results.

    在培養和收穫方面,我們預計——或者我們繼續預計,隨著我們採取積極措施將客戶遷移到更新的技術,這些類別會遇到阻力。這改善了我們客戶的體驗,並提高了這些客戶對 Lumen 的終身價值。正如凱特所提到的,我們繼續看到積極的領先指標,表明我們的舉措正在發揮作用,但需要一些時間才能反映在我們的結果中。

  • Nurture product revenue declined 0.5% sequentially due to continued pressure in VPN and Ethernet services. Nurture represents about 30% of our Business segment and carried an approximate 69% direct margin this quarter. Harvest products revenue declined 3.8% sequentially. Recall that Harvest is an important part of our business as it generates cash to fuel our growth initiatives. Harvest represents approximately 24% of our Business segment and carried an approximate 80% direct margin this quarter. Other products revenue grew 23.7% sequentially. Our other product revenue tends to experience fluctuations due to the variable nature of these products.

    由於 VPN 和乙太網路服務的持續壓力,Nurture 產品收入季減 0.5%。 Nurture 約占我們業務部門的 30%,本季直接利潤率約為 69%。收穫產品收入季減 3.8%。回想一下,Harvest 是我們業務的重要組成部分,因為它產生現金來推動我們的成長計劃。 Harvest 約占我們業務部門的 24%,本季直接利潤率約為 80%。其他產品收入較上季成長 23.7%。由於這些產品的可變性,我們的其他產品收入往往會出現波動。

  • Now moving on to Mass Markets. Revenue declined 2.2% sequentially. Our Mass Markets fiber broadband revenue grew 3.2% sequentially and represented approximately 32% of Mass Markets broadband revenue. Also note that our exposure to legacy voice and other service revenue continues to improve with a nearly 20-basis-point reduction sequentially.

    現在轉向大眾市場。營收季減 2.2%。我們的大眾市場光纖寬頻收入季增 3.2%,約佔大眾市場寬頻收入的 32%。另請注意,我們對傳統語音和其他服務收入的曝險繼續改善,環比減少了近 20 個基點。

  • During the quarter, total fiber broadband enablements were 141,000, bringing the total fiber-enabled locations to approximately 3.5 million as of September 30. During the third quarter, we added 19,000 Quantum Fiber customers. Fiber ARPU was flat sequentially and increased on a year-over-year basis to approximately $61 in the third quarter. At the end of the quarter, our penetration of legacy copper broadband dropped below 11% and our Quantum Fiber penetration stood at approximately 25%.

    本季度,光纖寬頻啟用總數為 141,000 個,截至 9 月 30 日,光纖啟用位置總數約為 350 萬個。第三季度,我們增加了 19,000 個量子光纖客戶。第三季光纖 ARPU 環比持平,年增至約 61 美元。截至本季末,我們的傳統銅質寬頻滲透率降至 11% 以下,而我們的量子光纖滲透率約為 25%。

  • The agreements with our creditor groups have given us runway to execute against our turnaround plan but those agreements will result in interest expense increasing sooner than our forecast had anticipated. This leads to a choice of higher enablements or higher returns for the Mass Market business, and we are choosing higher returns. We will continue to build at a pace similar to what we're doing this year, but we'll increase our focus on driving penetration and ARPU and growth. As I've said many times, our best use of incremental investment is in our Business segment where we see faster and better returns.

    與我們的債權人團體達成的協議為我們提供了執行週轉計劃的跑道,但這些協議將導致利息支出的增長早於我們的預測。這導致大眾市場業務選擇更高的支援或更高的回報,而我們正在選擇更高的回報。我們將繼續以與今年類似的速度進行建設,但我們將更加重視推動滲透率、ARPU 和成長。正如我多次說過的,我們增量投資的最佳用途是在我們的業務部門,在那裡我們看到更快、更好的回報。

  • Turning to adjusted EBITDA. For the third quarter of 2023, adjusted EBITDA was $1.049 billion compared to $1.688 billion in the year ago quarter. The third quarter of last year included $332 million related to the divested businesses, and the third quarter of this year included a negative impact of $40 million from divestiture-related commercial agreements. These items represent approximately 58% of the year-over-year decline.

    轉向調整後的 EBITDA。 2023 年第三季度,調整後 EBITDA 為 10.49 億美元,去年同期為 16.88 億美元。去年第三季包括與剝離業務相關的 3.32 億美元,今年第三季包括與剝離相關的商業協議產生的 4,000 萬美元的負面影響。這些項目約佔年減的 58%。

  • Special items impacting adjusted EBITDA this quarter totaled $33 million. Our third quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin excluding special items was 28.8% as we lean into growth and optimization efforts. Capital expenditures for the third quarter of 2023 were $843 million. In the third quarter of 2023, the company generated free cash flow of $43 million.

    本季影響調整後 EBITDA 的特殊項目總計 3,300 萬美元。由於我們致力於成長和優化工作,2023 年第三季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率(不包括特殊項目)為 28.8%。 2023年第三季的資本支出為8.43億美元。 2023年第三季度,該公司產生了4,300萬美元的自由現金流。

  • Now moving on to our outlook. Our financial outlook for 2023, we are reiterating all guidance metrics. We'll provide our outlook for 2024 when we report our fourth quarter results in early February.

    現在繼續我們的展望。對於 2023 年的財務展望,我們重申了所有指導指標。當我們在 2 月初報告第四季業績時,我們將提供 2024 年的展望。

  • With that, we're ready for your questions.

    至此,我們已經準備好回答您的問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·弗蘭納裡(Simon Flannery)。

  • Simon William Flannery - MD

    Simon William Flannery - MD

  • Chris, I know the 8-K just came out, but it would be great if you could just give us a little bit more on the debt agreement. Perhaps quantify the interest expense impact and what happens to your maturity schedule as well.

    克里斯,我知道 8-K 剛剛問世,但如果您能為我們提供有關債務協議的更多信息,那就太好了。也許還可以量化利息支出的影響以及您的到期時間表會發生什麼。

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So there's obviously a lot of work that needs to continue. And what I would say, Simon, is I'd highlight that the agreement does address the maturities are in need for investment. Depending on participation rates, it really does clear a path largely to 2029, which gives us more than ample time to execute the turnaround. And we do see a pathway to being able to execute against that agreement, and we've got the flexibility that we need as we move through that.

    是的。因此,顯然還有很多工作需要繼續進行。西蒙,我想說的是,我要強調的是,該協議確實解決了投資所需的期限問題。根據參與率,它確實在很大程度上為 2029 年掃清了道路,這給了我們足夠的時間來執行轉變。我們確實看到了執行該協議的途徑,並且在執行過程中我們擁有所需的靈活性。

  • As it relates to interest expense, again, it varies by year. Obviously, more impact near in, less further out given the way we modeled higher interest rates at the Investor Day. And the way I'd look at it is we will be cutting back on CapEx in the $200 million to $300 million range over the next few years to compensate for that.

    由於它與利息支出相關,因此每年都會有所不同。顯然,考慮到我們在投資者日模擬更高利率的方式,近期影響更大,更遠影響更少。我的看法是,我們將在未來幾年內削減 2 億至 3 億美元的資本支出,以彌補這一損失。

  • Simon William Flannery - MD

    Simon William Flannery - MD

  • Versus the Analyst Day projections?

    與分析師日的預測相比?

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Simon William Flannery - MD

    Simon William Flannery - MD

  • And how do you think about BEAD in the context of today's news? Is that something you kind of deemphasize at this point?

    在今天的新聞背景下,您如何看待 BEAD?您現在是否不太強調這一點?

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. I mean, again, I think our feelings on BEAD are very similar to what we have said consistently, which is if there's an opportunity, we will participate. But again, we're not resting a lot of hope on that. Those programs tend to get driven down in terms of the returns, and we were very clear today in saying that our focus is return. So it doesn't mean we won't participate, but we're going to be selective.

    不,我的意思是,我認為我們對 BEAD 的感受與我們一直以來所說的非常相似,那就是如果有機會,我們就會參與。但同樣,我們對此並不抱太大希望。這些計劃往往會降低迴報,而我們今天非常明確地說,我們的重點是回報。所以這並不意味著我們不會參與,但我們會有所選擇。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Nick Del Deo 和 MoffettNathanson 的對話。

  • Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

    Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

  • First, Chris, I was just scanning the 8-K, like Simon, not time to go through everything in detail. But I think one of the bullets noted that you expect the cumulative cash flow that you had previously laid out at the Analyst Day to come in within the range you had targeted but at the low end. And if I'm reading it correctly, it would seem to include a cumulative $600 million improvement in your cash taxes over that time frame, and presumably some of the lower CapEx you just laid out. So I'm just wondering if you could help us understand the puts and takes there a bit better.

    首先,克里斯,我只是像西蒙一樣掃描 8-K,沒有時間詳細檢查所有內容。但我認為其中一項要點指出,您預計先前在分析師日列出的累積現金流量將在您的目標範圍內,但處於低端。如果我沒看錯的話,這似乎包括在這段時間內你的現金稅累計改善了 6 億美元,大概還包括你剛剛列出的一些較低的資本支出。所以我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們更好地理解看跌期權和看跌期權。

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I want to make sure I'm answering your question. I mean the only thing that we've guided, obviously, is this year. We're still holding the guidance range. As we said, we expected a couple of hundred million dollars to be used this year. But when you look at just the other expenses and whatnot that we're incurring on some of the closed transactions and whatnot, that kept us within the guidance range. Going forward -- go ahead.

    是的。我想確保我正在回答你的問題。我的意思是,我們唯一指導的事情顯然是今年。我們仍維持指導區間。正如我們所說,我們預計今年將使用數億美元。但是,當你只考慮其他費用以及我們在一些已完成的交易中產生的費用等時,這使我們保持在指導範圍內。前進——前進。

  • Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

    Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

  • Oh, sorry, go ahead. Sorry, go ahead.

    哦,抱歉,請繼續。抱歉,請繼續。

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. I was just say going forward, we will have, all other things being equal, a free cash flow shortfall that will be addressed by pulling back on CapEx, as I mentioned in my earlier response.

    不。我只是說,在其他條件相同的情況下,未來我們將面臨自由現金流短缺,這將透過削減資本支出來解決,正如我在先前的回覆中提到的那樣。

  • Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

    Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. So just to be clear, I was referring to the first bullet in the cleansing information, where you talked about your expectations versus what you had laid out at the Analyst Day.

    好的。因此,為了清楚起見,我指的是清理訊息中的第一個項目符號,您在其中談到了您的期望與您在分析師日所提出的內容。

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Oh, I see what you're saying, yes. So as we looked at current performance, which as Kate referenced, was impacted by the overhang from the -- all the noise in the market around our debt structure and our ability to refinance it. It unquestionably had a near-term impact on sales that we expect will impact revenue. The way we offset that is the cost-reduction program that Kate announced today.

    哦,我明白你在說什麼,是的。因此,當我們審視當前的業績時,正如凱特所提到的,受到市場上圍繞我們的債務結構和再融資能力的所有噪音的影響。毫無疑問,它對銷售產生了短期影響,我們預計這將影響收入。我們抵消這一影響的方法是凱特今天宣布的成本削減計劃。

  • So we have line of sight to the -- being within that EBITDA guidance range we talked about at the Investor Day. We've got work to do, obviously, to reaffirm that for next year. But that's why we did what we did. There's great stuff going on inside the business in terms of improving revenue trends, and we're excited about that. But there's no question that these near-term conditions have hurt the revenue trend more near term.

    因此,我們的目標是——處於我們在投資者日討論的 EBITDA 指導範圍內。顯然,我們還有很多工作要做,以在明年重申這一點。但這就是我們這樣做的原因。在改善收入趨勢方面,業務內部正在發生一些偉大的事情,我們對此感到興奮。但毫無疑問,這些近期狀況已經損害了近期的收入趨勢。

  • Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

    Nicholas Ralph Del Deo - Senior Analyst

  • Okay, okay. And just on the pace of the fiber enablements, what's the magnitude of the change you're thinking? And is the CapEx reduction just a function of lower enablements?

    好吧好吧。就光纖實現的速度而言,您認為變化的幅度有多大?資本支出的減少是否只是支持能力降低的結果?

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, I think that's the way to think about it. It will come in the form of lower enablements. And directionally, I think it means that next year and coming years look relatively flattish to what we're doing this year in terms of enablement.

    是的,我認為這就是思考問題的方式。它將以較低的支持形式出現。從方向上看,我認為這意味著明年和未來幾年在支持方面與我們今年所做的事情相比相對平淡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rollins with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Michael Rollins。

  • Michael Ian Rollins - MD & U.S. Telecoms Analyst

    Michael Ian Rollins - MD & U.S. Telecoms Analyst

  • Two questions, if I could. First, just curious if you can unpack a bit more of the EBITDA pressure in the third quarter relative to revenue, of course, excluding the divested assets and the transitory items that you highlighted in the slide. And then just secondly, just in response to the last -- or following up on the last couple of questions. Is Lumen considering other ways to try to fund the business and try to get back some of the CapEx, and some of the investment opportunities that you thought would be very productive when you laid out the original business plan goals at the Analyst Day?

    如果可以的話,有兩個問題。首先,只是想知道您是否可以在第三季相對於收入釋放更多的 EBITDA 壓力,當然,不包括您在幻燈片中強調的剝離資產和臨時項目。其次,只是為了回答最後一個問題——或者跟進最後幾個問題。 Lumen 是否正在考慮其他方式來嘗試為業務提供資金並嘗試收回一些資本支出,以及當您在分析師日制定最初的業務計劃目標時您認為會非常富有成效的一些投資機會?

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Sure. So I'll address both of those. So near term, I think we've heard our competition talking about a tough economic environment. There's no question that that's impacting us, although I would say on a relative basis, we're pleased with our performance.

    是的。當然。所以我將解決這兩個問題。就短期而言,我認為我們已經聽到我們的競爭對手談論嚴峻的經濟環境。毫無疑問,這對我們產生了影響,儘管我想說的是,相對而言,我們對自己的表現感到滿意。

  • And then as I said in my previous response, I think just the amount of noise in the marketplace over whether our turnaround disruption was going to matter because we had this huge ['27] tower, that had an impact. And it's hard to measure that, but it undoubtedly had an impact, and that's why we're pleased with where we ended up with a proposed transaction today. So I think that clears the way.

    然後,正如我在先前的回覆中所說,我認為市場上關於我們的周轉中斷是否會產生影響的噪音量,因為我們有這座巨大的 ['27] 塔,它產生了影響。很難衡量這一點,但它無疑產生了影響,這就是為什麼我們對今天擬議的交易最終達成的結果感到滿意。所以我認為這掃清了道路。

  • I'd say the third thing is, again, great things happening inside the company. But as we've said consistently, it's going to bounce around as we move through the transition and start to scale the things that are working. In my prepared remarks, I did say that we see line of sight to sustained improvement in revenue kind of starting midyear next year, and that remains. So we feel good about that.

    我想說的第三件事是公司內部發生的偉大事情。但正如我們一直所說的那樣,隨著我們經歷過渡並開始擴展正在發揮作用的事情,它將反彈。在我準備好的演講中,我確實說過,我們預計從明年年中開始收入將持續改善,而且這種情況仍然存在。所以我們對此感覺良好。

  • As it relates to other ways to fund CapEx, so more specifically, the asset-based securitization question, yes, that remains an option. And we'll continue to do work around structures like that to see if there's an opportunity. So those remain, but my comments today do not assume any additional structures helping us fund CapEx.

    由於它涉及其他為資本支出提供資金的方式,因此更具體地說,基於資產的證券化問題,是的,這仍然是一種選擇。我們將繼續圍繞這樣的結構開展工作,看看是否有機會。所以這些仍然存在,但我今天的評論並不假設有任何額外的結構來幫助我們為資本支出提供資金。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of Batya Levi with UBS.

    下一個問題來自巴蒂亞·萊維 (Batya Levi) 與瑞銀 (UBS) 的關係。

  • Batya Levi - Executive Director and Research Analyst

    Batya Levi - Executive Director and Research Analyst

  • Great. A follow-up on the new deals. How should we think about the net proceeds of the new financing that you're announcing? And how -- what should we think about the split in terms of how much of it will be used in terms of driving new growth versus debt paydown? And through this transformation phase, where do you think your maximum leverage would be?

    偉大的。新交易的後續行動。我們該如何看待您宣布的新融資的淨收益?我們應該如何看待這種分配,即其中有多少資金將用於推動新的成長與償還債務?在這個轉型階段,您認為您的最大槓桿在哪裡?

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So I think on that last piece, I'd want to circle back with you because, again, that starts to get into what do we think guidance is for next year. So I don't think I want to go there today.

    是的。所以我想在最後一篇文章中,我想和你們一起回顧一下,因為這又開始涉及到我們認為明年的指導是什麼。所以我想我今天不想去那裡。

  • What I would say, Batya, is that -- so first of all, the incremental raise, I think, was a really strong signal from our credit investors at their belief in our ability to turn the company around. These are smart shrewd investors who represent the market, and the fact that they are willing to raise an additional $1.2 billion, I think, speaks to their confidence in this management team and our strategy. And so I think that's huge.

    巴特亞,我想說的是,首先,我認為增量加薪是我們的信貸投資者發出的一個非常強烈的信號,他們相信我們有能力扭轉公司的局面。這些都是代表市場的精明投資者,我認為他們願意額外籌集 12 億美元這一事實說明了他們對這個管理團隊和我們的策略的信心。所以我認為這是巨大的。

  • We'll use the funds. It's all really part of restructuring the debt. It's not about using it to necessarily fund a specific piece of CapEx. Our CapEx is part of the thinking, obviously, but this is about restructuring really everything between now and through 2027. I can't -- I guess I will go so far as to say that on our leverage versus where we are today, we would expect through our turnaround story that leverage will decline. It probably stays relatively steady in the near term, but then we would expect it to decline. So I'll go that far. I'll give you that much today.

    我們將使用這些資金。這實際上是債務重組的一部分。這並不是要用它來為特定的資本支出提供資金。顯然,我們的資本支出是我們思考的一部分,但這實際上是關於從現在到 2027 年的一切重組。我不能——我想我會說,就我們今天的槓桿率而言,我們通過我們的扭虧為盈故事,我們預期槓桿率將會下降。短期內它可能會保持相對穩定,但隨後我們預計它會下降。所以我會走那麼遠。今天我就給你這麼多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of David Barden with Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的大衛‧巴登(David Barden)。

  • David William Barden - MD & Global Research US Telecom Services & Communications Infrastructure Senior Analyst

    David William Barden - MD & Global Research US Telecom Services & Communications Infrastructure Senior Analyst

  • I've got a million, Chris, but...

    我有一百萬,克里斯,但是...

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • And you only get 2, though, sorry.

    不過,抱歉,你只能得到 2 個。

  • David William Barden - MD & Global Research US Telecom Services & Communications Infrastructure Senior Analyst

    David William Barden - MD & Global Research US Telecom Services & Communications Infrastructure Senior Analyst

  • I know, I know. Yes. So look -- so I'm reading this thing and -- so we had this cumulative cash flow expectation from the Analyst Day in June. And now we've got this kind of mysterious tax refund that's showing up. And yes, there's going to be some offsets, and maybe it's a net $600 million positive. And we're letting go [some people], 4% of the corporation. That's going to be a $300 million benefit. We're going to cut CapEx. And even with all that, we're still at the low end now of the guided outlook from a few months ago. And so what we haven't really heard is what is the actual cost, the dollar number, that's going to get whatever it is that you've done with the debt structure accomplished? That's my first question.

    我知道我知道。是的。所以看——所以我正在讀這篇文章——所以我們從六月的分析師日得到了累積現金流量預期。現在我們已經看到了這種神秘的退稅。是的,將會有一些抵消,也許淨收益為 6 億美元。我們將解僱[一些人],即公司 4% 的股份。這將帶來 3 億美元的收益。我們將削減資本支出。即便如此,我們現在仍處於幾個月前指導前景的低端。所以我們還沒有真正聽到的是實際成本是多少,美元數字是多少,這將得到你在完成債務結構後所做的一切?這是我的第一個問題。

  • And the second question is, with respect to the third quarter specifically, as we try to like in the interim kind of model out what we're looking at, what was kind of onetime in nature? I know you called out something in the public sector that was in the revenue line. It sounded like it was kind of an equipment type of deal. Could you kind of call out all the one-timers that affected the third quarter as we think about fourth quarter and as we try to model out 2024?

    第二個問題是,具體到第三季度,當我們試圖在臨時模型中了解我們正在關注的情況時,本質上是一次性的?我知道你提到了公共部門收入中的一些事情。聽起來這是一種設備類型的交易。當我們思考第四季並嘗試預測 2024 年時,您能否列出所有影響第三季的一次性因素?

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So as it relates to the debt -- and again, because you're right, I mean, this is a complex transaction, but to get into a lot of modeling on this call, it's not going to serve anything very well. What I would tell you is that when I said that we needed to cut between $200 million and $300 million of CapEx that really, I think, foretells that higher cost associated with the transaction.

    是的。因此,由於它與債務有關- 再說一遍,因為你是對的,我的意思是,這是一項複雜的交易,但要對此調用進行大量建模,​​它不會很好地提供任何服務。我要告訴你的是,當我說我們需要削減 2 億至 3 億美元的資本支出時,我認為這確實預示著與交易相關的更高成本。

  • So think of it this way: you have some near-term revenue pressures improving as we get into midyear next year. Those revenue pressures are being offset by the cost reduction that we're taking. The tax benefit, which really relates to a lot of hard work around how can we aggressively pull forward NOLs, so a bigger benefit nearer term, less of a benefit longer term. When you incorporate that into the model, which would include all the transaction costs associated with the debt restructuring and whatnot, that's what gets us to the math that says we've got to cut that $200 million to $300 million a year. So that's -- I think that answers your question, not specifically by year, but that should give you the magnitude.

    因此,可以這樣想:隨著明年年中的到來,近期的收入壓力會有所改善。這些收入壓力正被我們正在採取的成本削減措施所抵銷。稅收優惠實際上與我們如何積極推動 NOL 相關的大量艱苦工作有關,因此近期效益更大,長期效益較小。當你將其納入模型時,其中包括與債務重組等相關的所有交易成本,這就是我們得出的數學結果,即我們必須每年削減 2 億至 3 億美元。所以,我認為這回答了你的問題,不是具體地按年份,但這應該可以告訴你問題的嚴重程度。

  • And as it relates to the public sector, it really was IT solutions and equipment this quarter. And again, it fluctuates around. But I've given you all the key one-timers for the quarter. And those things sit in the other bucket, as you know.

    由於與公共部門相關,本季確實是 IT 解決方案和設備。而且,它再次波動。但我已經向您提供了本季所有關鍵的一次性事項。如你所知,這些東西都放在另一個桶子裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Greg Williams with TD Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Greg Williams 和 TD Cowen。

  • Gregory Bradford Williams - Director

    Gregory Bradford Williams - Director

  • Great. The -- both focused on Fiber to the Home and ILEC. I guess you're focused on sales and marketing rather than the enablement for the next couple of years, actually. First question, are you worried about the encroachment of third-party overbuilders then coming into the space in your footprint if you're not investing in it? And second is if you're not investing heavily in it, in the past, you said you didn't expect to do any further larger ILEC sales or sales of large amount of homes. But now that you're not investing into the degree that you said you would at Analyst Day, could a sale of a larger portion of the ILEC be on the table?

    偉大的。兩者都專注於光纖到府和 ILEC。實際上,我猜您關注的是銷售和行銷,而不是未來幾年的支援。第一個問題,如果您不投資的話,您是否擔心第三方過度建設者會侵占您的足跡?其次,如果您沒有大量投資,過去您曾說過您預計不會進行任何更大的 ILEC 銷售或大量房屋的銷售。但既然您沒有像分析師日上所說的那樣投資於學位,是否可以考慮出售 ILEC 的大部分股份?

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So first of all, again, I want to be really clear on this: we're not walking away from the consumer build. We're saying that we're going to stay relatively flat to where we are this year. That is still a substantial investment in consumer. And I think if you look across the space with rising cost of capital, all of our competition has pulled back. So this move is actually not out of step with what's going on in the broader marketplace.

    是的。首先,我想再次明確這一點:我們不會放棄消費者建構。我們說我們將與今年的水平保持相對持平。這仍然是對消費者的重大投資。我認為,如果你縱觀資本成本不斷上升的領域,我們所有的競爭對手都已經退縮了。因此,這項措施實際上與更廣泛市場的情況並無不一致。

  • I think there's a real opportunity, though, to improve returns and as Kate mentioned, with an increased focus on subscription growth penetration. I mean we've talked a lot about the fact that until we got to scale on enablements to getting that enablement factory running smoothly, which it now is, now we can scale market. So we haven't really started to ramp marketing until recently. And that's a real opportunity for us, and we're going to be very aggressive about that. So I'm not worried about encroachment because I think the market has already spoken as to its willingness to invest at this point.

    不過,我認為確實有機會提高回報,正如凱特所提到的那樣,更加關注訂閱成長滲透率。我的意思是,我們已經討論了很多這樣的事實:在我們擴大支援規模以使支援工廠順利運行之前(現在就是這樣),現在我們可以擴大市場。因此,直到最近我們才真正開始加強行銷。這對我們來說是一個真正的機會,我們將對此非常積極。所以我並不擔心侵犯,因為我認為市場此時已經表達了其投資意願。

  • As it relates to how we think about the business long term, I would say we remain open to any and all ideas. And again, the goal here is to build two great assets: an enterprise business and a consumer business. And what happens with those businesses over time, we're very open to considering what that looks like. So we remain of the belief that consolidation will continue to take place in the consumer space, and we would expect at the right point in time to participate in that.

    由於這關係到我們如何看待業務的長期發展,我想說我們對任何和所有想法都持開放態度。再說一次,這裡的目標是建立兩個重要資產:企業業務和消費者業務。隨著時間的推移,這些業務會發生什麼,我們非常願意考慮它會是什麼樣子。因此,我們仍然相信消費領域將繼續整合,並且我們期望在正確的時間點參與其中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Frank Louthan with Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自弗蘭克·勞森(Frank Louthan)和雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)。

  • Frank Garrett Louthan - MD of Equity Research

    Frank Garrett Louthan - MD of Equity Research

  • So a couple of sort of related questions. Back to lowering the fiber build, why would you choose that as far as a place to say for CapEx? Given kind of the relatively low risk and success rate of those businesses, why not target other areas of spending? Are you sure you're cutting the right part of the business because again, to your -- the previous question, will invite some kind of competition?

    所以有幾個相關的問題。回到降低光纖建設,為什麼選擇它作為資本支出的一個地方?鑑於這些業務的風險和成功率相對較低,為什麼不瞄準其他支出領域?你確定你正在削減業務的正確部分,因為同樣,對於你的上一個問題,會招致某種競爭嗎?

  • And then my second question, assuming you're going to tell me that, yes, it is the right part of the business, what exactly is the opportunity in the other part of the business? And why are returns higher there and presumably coming in sooner than, say, the fiber build would be?

    然後是我的第二個問題,假設你要告訴我,是的,這是業務的正確部分,那麼業務的其他部分到底有什麼機會?為什麼那裡的回報率更高,而且可能比光纖建設的回報更快?

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Good question, Frank. I mean we talked quite a bit about how the returns profiles of these two businesses couldn't be more different, right? The consumer business is one of invest a lot in capital, and then your payback period is measured in high single-digit, low double-digit kind of territory. So a very long time to return even with great performance. Now that asset, particularly given the quality of the fiber that we're putting in and the scalability of that, is about as future-proof as it gets. So the beautiful thing about that business is a very long tail of returns once you get to that payback.

    是的。好問題,弗蘭克。我的意思是,我們討論了很多關於這兩家企業的回報情況如何截然不同的問題,對吧?消費者業務是需要大量資本投資的業務,投資回收期的衡量標準是高個位數、低兩位數。因此,即使表現出色,也需要很長時間才能回歸。現在,該資產,特別是考慮到我們所投入的光纖的品質及其可擴展性,幾乎可以滿足未來的需求。因此,這項業務的美妙之處在於,一旦獲得回報,就會產生很長的回報尾部。

  • The Enterprise business is one of higher margins and faster returns, where you're measuring your payback window in low to mid-single-digit kind of years. And when you look at the disruptive nature of the products and services we're bringing to market around NaaS and ExaSwitch and our security offerings, that disruption in our ability to not just keep and nurture existing customers but expand that customer base has a much greater and faster return. So that's really why we see Enterprise as the right place to spend.

    企業業務是利潤率更高、回報更快的業務之一,您可以在中低個位數的年份內衡量投資回收期。當你看到我們圍繞NaaS 和ExaSwitch 以及我們的安全產品推向市場的產品和服務的顛覆性時,你會發現,這種顛覆不僅對我們保留和培養現有客戶的能力,而且對擴大客戶群的能力產生了更大的影響。和更快的回報。這就是為什麼我們將 Enterprise 視為正確的消費場所。

  • And again, I keep hearing about overbuild activity, overbuild activity, but we're simply not seeing. The higher cost of capital that everybody faces right now is slowing down those builds. So what we're doing by continuing to invest in that 500,000 kind of enablement range every year is still, I would say, quite robust compared to what we're seeing on a competitive front. So we think overbuild activity is a much lower risk given today's economic environment.

    再說一次,我不斷聽到過度建設活動,過度建設活動,但我們根本沒有看到。每個人現在面臨的更高的資本成本正在減緩這些建設。因此,我想說,與我們在競爭方面看到的情況相比,我們每年繼續投資 500,000 種支援範圍所做的事情仍然相當穩健。因此,我們認為,鑑於當今的經濟環境,過度建設活動的風險要低得多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our final question comes from the line of Jonathan Chaplin with New Street Research.

    我們的最後一個問題來自新街研究公司的喬納森·卓別林。

  • Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head of Communications Services

    Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head of Communications Services

  • I'm going to steal two, if I may. So the -- I was fascinated, Chris, by your comment that you'd spend a lot of time talking to your creditors, and the deal that they struck with you is a vote of confidence in the turnaround strategy. And I'm just wondering what you shared with them in the context of those negotiations that's sort of incremental to what you've been able to share with The Street. I'd love to get some sort of -- if you could expand a little bit just on sort of, yes, the -- what you need to -- yes, go for it.

    如果可以的話,我要偷兩個。所以,克里斯,你的評論讓我很著迷,你說你會花很多時間與你的債權人交談,而他們與你達成的協議是對扭虧為盈策略的信任票。我只是想知道你在這些談判的背景下與他們分享了哪些內容,這些內容是你與華爾街分享的內容的增量內容。我很想得到某種東西——如果你能稍微擴展一下,是的,你需要的——是的,去做吧。

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I mean that's obviously a very regulated space. And I would say that what we shared with them that was different than Investor Day, it's what was included in the blowout materials today. So you all have access to that. We have full visibility, for example, around the tax issue that we talked about earlier as well as the fact that nearer term, we're seeing some impacts from revenue.

    是的。我的意思是,這顯然是一個非常受監管的空間。我想說的是,我們與他們分享的內容與投資者日不同,這就是今天井噴材料中包含的內容。所以你們都可以訪問它。例如,我們對我們之前討論的稅收問題以及近期我們看到收入產生的一些影響有充分的了解。

  • I think when I say that they believe in the strategy, they believe in our ability to disrupt telecom, they believe in the innovation, they believe in what we're doing to migrate revenue from legacy services to new. And no one else is doing that. No one else is investing in this space, and it's a huge opportunity for us because of our focus. So that's -- I mean what we share with them is what we share with you, especially when you consider the blowout information.

    我認為,當我說他們相信我們的策略時,他們相信我們顛覆電信的能力,他們相信創新,他們相信我們為將收入從傳統服務遷移到新服務所做的事情。沒有其他人這樣做。沒有其他人投資這個領域,由於我們的專注,這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。所以,我的意思是,我們與他們分享的就是我們與你們分享的,特別是當你們考慮到井噴資訊時。

  • Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head of Communications Services

    Jonathan Chaplin - US Team Head of Communications Services

  • Got it. That helps. And then my second question is, I mean, it's really just a continuation of the question that Greg and the question that preceded that -- Frank's question, which is, it seems like you've got sort of two very different opportunities, one in Mass Markets, one in Enterprise. They're on very different return profiles. And in fact, under the sort of the current circumstances, you don't have the resources to pursue both, and so you're going after the return of Enterprise.

    知道了。這有幫助。然後我的第二個問題是,我的意思是,這實際上只是格雷格的問題和之前的問題的延續——弗蘭克的問題,也就是說,你似乎有兩個截然不同的機會,一個是在大眾市場,企業市場之一。他們的回報情況截然不同。事實上,在目前的情況下,你沒有資源去追求兩者,所以你要追求企業號的回歸。

  • Given your circumstances, that totally makes sense. But isn't the right -- the sort of right course of action in a resource-constrained environment like you're in to run a process to sell Mass Markets to somebody that has the capital to put into it at the moment, take full advantage of the opportunity there, both sort of organically with the markets that are there plus the big BEAD opportunity that's coming and all the rest of it. Wouldn't that just be a lot more valuable in someone else's hands right now?

    考慮到你的情況,這是完全合理的。但這是不對的——在資源有限的環境中採取正確的行動方針,就像你正在運行一個流程,將大眾市場出售給目前有資本投入的人,充分利用利用那裡的機會,既與那裡的市場有機結合,又加上即將到來的大珠子機會以及所有其他機會。現在在別人手上不是更有價值嗎?

  • Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

    Christopher David Stansbury - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, look, I would say that that's a consideration that we look at regularly. But again, I want to be clear, we're talking these last set of questions, and I'm going to challenge all of you kind of and your thinking about it. The questions would suggest that we're stopping our investment in consumer. We're continuing to invest at the pace we're investing at this year. We're going to continue to add in the range of 0.5 million enablements a year to our 3.5 million enablements that exist today. We're focusing on penetration and subscriber growth and ARPU and returns. At the same time, we're continuing to build those 500,000 enablements. So very, very clearly, I want everyone to understand continuing to invest at a healthy pace in that business, particularly compared to what our competition is doing at this very moment given the high cost of capital. So that's an important point.

    嗯,我想說,這是我們定期考慮的一個考慮因素。但我想再次澄清,我們正在討論最後一組問題,我將挑戰你們所有人以及你們對此的想法。這些問題顯示我們正在停止對消費者的投資。我們將繼續以今年的投資速度進行投資。我們將繼續在現有的 350 萬個支援的基礎上每年增加 50 萬個支援。我們專注於滲透率、用戶成長以及 ARPU 和回報。同時,我們正在繼續建立這 500,000 個支援。因此,非常非常清楚,我希望每個人都能理解,要繼續以健康的速度對該業務進行投資,特別是與我們的競爭對手目前在資本成本高昂的情況下所做的事情相比。所以這是很重要的一點。

  • Now the question you raised, though, is the right question. And I would -- we have been very public in saying that the consumer space is one that is ripe at some point in time for consolidation. When that happens, we don't know. Our job is to improve the EBITDA and the return profile of the business that we have, continue to invest in its future. And if and when the right time comes, then we'll consider those options. But our focus right now is on continuing the pace of builds that we're at today and driving improved returns.

    不過,現在您提出的問題是正確的問題。我想說的是,我們一直非常公開地表示,消費領域在某個時間點的整合時機已經成熟。當這種情況發生時,我們不知道。我們的工作是改善 EBITDA 和我們現有業務的回報狀況,並繼續投資於其未來。如果合適的時機到來,我們就會考慮這些選擇。但我們現在的重點是繼續我們今天的建設步伐並提高回報。

  • Michael L. McCormack - SVP of IR

    Michael L. McCormack - SVP of IR

  • Thanks, Jonathan. Darcy, with that, we'll end the call.

    謝謝,喬納森。達西,這樣我們就結束通話了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you very much. And we'd like to thank everyone for your participation and for using the Lumen conferencing service today. This does conclude the conference call, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day, everyone.

    非常感謝。我們要感謝大家今天的參與和使用 Lumen 會議服務。電話會議到此結束,我們請您斷開線路。祝大家有個美好的一天。