Lumen Technologies 最近召開了 2024 年第四季財報電話會議,強調了在減債、銷售成長和網路改善方面取得的成就。展望 2025 年,該公司計劃專注於卓越營運、建立 AI 主幹網路並過渡到更基於雲端的電信方法。
在 2025 年財務前景方面,Lumen 預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 32 億美元至 34 億美元之間,自由現金流預計在 7 億美元至 9 億美元之間。該公司也正在考慮出售光纖資產,將現有的銅線基礎設施轉換為光纖,並專注於企業通路的成長。
儘管未來可能會出現變化,Lumen Technologies 對其未來前景仍然持樂觀態度。他們致力於提供先進的、多雲 AI 就緒的網路架構,以滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings, everyone, and welcome to Lumen Technologies fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call.
大家好,歡迎參加 Lumen Technologies 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指令)
As a reminder, this call is being recorded today, Tuesday, February 1, 2025.
提醒一下,本次通話是在今天,即 2025 年 2 月 1 日星期二錄製的。
Your speakers for today are Kate Johnson, CEO; and Chris Stansbury, CFO.
今天的演講者是首席執行官凱特·約翰遜 (Kate Johnson);以及首席財務官克里斯·斯坦斯伯里(Chris Stansbury)。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Green, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.
現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Jim Green。
Please go ahead, sir.
先生,請繼續。
Jim Breen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jim Breen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Lumen Technologies fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.
大家下午好,感謝您參加 Lumen Technologies 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。
On the call today are Kate Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Stansbury, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長凱特·約翰遜 (Kate Johnson);以及執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯·斯坦斯伯里(Chris Stansbury)。
Before we begin, I need to call your attention to our safe harbor statement on Slide 1 of our fourth quarter 2024 presentation, which notes that this conference call may include forward-looking statements subject to certain risks and uncertainties.
在我們開始之前,我需要提請您注意我們 2024 年第四季度簡報投影片 1 上的安全港聲明,其中指出本次電話會議可能包含受某些風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述。
All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements and the risk factors in our SEC filings.
所有前瞻性陳述都應與我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中提出的警示聲明和風險因素結合考慮。
We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures, which can be found in our earnings press release.
我們將參考與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標相協調的某些非 GAAP 財務指標,這些指標可在我們的收益新聞稿中找到。
In addition, certain metrics discussed today exclude costs for special items as detailed in our earnings materials, which can be found on our Investor Relations section of the Lumen website.
此外,今天討論的某些指標不包括特殊項目的成本,詳情可在我們的收益資料中找到,這些資料可在 Lumen 網站的投資者關係部分找到。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Kate.
說完這些,我會把電話轉給凱特。
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Jim, and thanks, everybody, for joining the call today.
謝謝吉姆,也謝謝大家今天參加電話會議。
I'll focus my remarks with a quick look back on 2024 and then I'll set the vision for 2025 and beyond.
我的演講將重點簡要回顧 2024 年,然後製定 2025 年及以後的願景。
In short, 2024 was a remarkable year for Lumen Technologies.
簡而言之,2024 年對 Lumen Technologies 來說是非凡的一年。
We accomplished so much, way too much to share on this call, so I'll just focus on a few of the big things.
我們完成了很多事情,太多了,無法在這次電話會議上分享,因此我只想專注於一些重要的事情。
We strengthened our financial position and restore market confidence in Lumen and then started with the debt restructuring that gives us ample time to execute our transformation.
我們加強了財務狀況,恢復了市場對 Lumen 的信心,然後開始債務重組,這給了我們充足的時間來實現轉型。
We lowered our debt load by $1.6 billion in '24 and recently sent redemption notices for another $200 million.
我們在24年減少了16億美元的債務負擔,最近又發出了2億美元的贖回通知。
And importantly, we drove material improvement in both our equity and debt trading values.
重要的是,我們推動了股票和債務交易價值的大幅提升。
Next, we established Lumen as the trusted network for AI, inking $8.5 billion in closed sales with big tech companies like Microsoft, AWS, Google, and Meta, among others.
接下來,我們將 Lumen 打造為值得信賴的 AI 網絡,與微軟、AWS、Google、Meta 等大型科技公司簽訂了價值 85 億美元的封閉式銷售協議。
These deals helped us strengthen our free cash flow and enable us to self-fund our transformation.
這些交易幫助我們加強了自由現金流,使我們能夠自行資助我們的轉型。
We continue to be in deep discussions with several customers to build new routes, and we're going to provide more detail on those deals as it makes sense to do so.
我們正繼續與多位客戶就開闢新航線進行深入討論,並且我們將在有意義的情況下提供有關這些交易的更多細節。
Throughout '24 we also made material progress transforming our corporate functions and some quick highlights include: in Service Operations and Assurance, we delivered materially better year-over-year customer SAT scores in all four enterprise segments all four quarters in a row.
在整個24年,我們在轉變公司職能方面也取得了實質性進展,其中的一些亮點包括:在服務運營和保證方面,我們連續四個季度在所有四個企業部門中都實現了同比大幅提高的客戶 SAT 分數。
And we built an engine to deliver large, complex private network projects on budget and on time with the delivery of the State of California's digital inclusion program as the latest proof point.
我們建立了一個引擎,能夠按預算和按時交付大型、複雜的私人網路項目,加州數位包容計畫的交付就是最新的證明。
Our enterprise sales and customer success teams built a robust engine that delivered over 15% year-over-year sales growth in our North American enterprise channels with more than 13% sales growth in IP and ways and drove more than 500 new customers to adopt the Lumen digital NaaS platform.
我們的企業銷售和客戶成功團隊建立了一個強大的引擎,使我們的北美企業通路的銷售額年增超過 15%,IP 和方式的銷售額增長超過 13%,並推動 500 多家新客戶採用 Lumen 數位 NaaS 平台。
Our marketing team built new storytelling muscle, standing side-by-side unfazed with big tech and great companies like Intelsat, VSP Vision Care, Churchill Downs, and the Pac-12 to evangelize the criticality of fiber networking and reposition Lumen as a trusted network for AI.
我們的行銷團隊打造了新的故事講述能力,與 Intelsat、VSP Vision Care、丘吉爾唐斯賽馬場和 Pac-12 等大型科技公司和優秀公司並肩站在一起,宣傳光纖網路的重要性,並將 Lumen 重新定位為 AI 值得信賴的網路。
Our network engineering, IT and product teams delivered dozens of mission-critical programs for us.
我們的網路工程、IT 和產品團隊為我們提供了數十個關鍵任務程序。
And one breakthrough program is the delivery of Lumen's unified network architecture, enabling 85% of new Ethernet and IP data service sales in major metro markets.
其中一個突破性計劃是交付 Lumen 的統一網路架構,使主要城域市場 85% 的新乙太網路和 IP 資料服務銷售額得以實現。
This is the long overdue integration of our four network architectures and has already started delivering benefits.
這是我們四大網路架構期待已久的整合,並且已開始產生效益。
The unified network not only enables NaaS and other more advanced digital services but, in some cases, it reduces our average time to deliver by more than 12 days and reduces implementation costs by as much as 50%.
統一網路不僅支援NaaS和其他更先進的數位服務,而且在某些情況下,它將我們的平均交付時間縮短了12天以上,並將實施成本降低了50%。
What's more, our HR team successfully embedded our play-to-win culture in every aspect of the company.
此外,我們的人力資源團隊成功地將「努力取勝」的文化融入了公司的各個方面。
We can feel every day in the work that we do.
我們可以在每天所做的工作中感受到。
And of course, we're proud of the external recognition we've received with more than 15 culture awards so far.
當然,我們對所獲得的外部認可感到非常自豪,迄今為止我們已經獲得了超過 15 個文化獎項。
But, most importantly, we're excited to see major improvements in our employee engagement scores borne out of this work because it really matters to our overall mission.
但最重要的是,我們很高興看到這項工作帶來了員工敬業度得分的重大提高,因為這對我們的整體使命確實很重要。
And finally, our mass markets Quantum Fiber team delivered more than 500,000 enablements with greater than 90% year-over-year growth in fiber net adds, while simultaneously reducing expenses year-over-year.
最後,我們的大眾市場量子光纖團隊實現了超過 50 萬次啟用,光纖淨增加量較去年同期成長超過 90%,同時費用較去年同期減少。
In summary, our progress in '24 did a few things.
總而言之,我們在 24 年取得了一些進展。
It validated our mission, our vision, our strategy, our culture and especially the strength of our team, and it showed that we have great execution muscle and set a strong foundation for accelerating our transformation work.
它驗證了我們的使命、願景、策略、文化,特別是我們團隊的實力,表明我們擁有強大的執行力,為加速我們的轉型工作奠定了堅實的基礎。
Okay.
好的。
Let's shift gears and look at 2025.
讓我們換個角度,放眼2025年。
We have three clear priorities: driving operational excellence, building the backbone for AI, and cloudifying telecom.
我們有三個明確的優先事項:推動卓越營運、建構人工智慧骨幹以及電信雲端化。
And each of these priorities has detailed plans to deliver more customer, shareholder and employee value in '25 and beyond.
每個優先事項都有詳細的計劃,以便在25年及以後為客戶、股東和員工創造更多價值。
Starting with Lumen's financial goals, our 2025 guidance for EBITDA is between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion, and free cash flow is between $700 million and $900 million.
從 Lumen 的財務目標開始,我們對 2025 年 EBITDA 的預期在 32 億美元至 34 億美元之間,自由現金流在 7 億美元至 9 億美元之間。
But the big takeaway is this, with a combination of improved revenue mix and cost takeout, we see Lumen returning to full year EBITDA growth in 2026.
但最大的收穫是,透過改善收入結構和成本削減,我們預計 Lumen 將在 2026 年恢復全年 EBITDA 成長。
I'm going to let Chris provide more detail on this shortly.
我將讓克里斯很快提供有關此問題的更多細節。
Next, we continue to drive operational excellence in everything we do, ensuring continuous improvement in sales execution and churn mitigation, simplifying our core business processes, and leveraging modernized ERP, CRM, ops platforms, and artificial intelligence to deliver improved employee, customer and partner experiences.
接下來,我們將繼續在所做的每一件事中推動卓越運營,確保持續改善銷售執行和減少客戶流失,簡化我們的核心業務流程,並利用現代化的 ERP、CRM、營運平台和人工智慧來提供更好的員工、客戶和合作夥伴體驗。
We've already identified more than $1 billion of OpEx and a big chunk of network expense that we plan to eliminate by year-end '27 with this work.
我們已經確定了超過 10 億美元的營運支出和一大筆網路費用,我們計劃透過這項工作在 2027 年底之前消除這些費用。
And we expect to exit 2025 with over $250 million of run rate cost benefit delivered.
我們預計到 2025 年將實現超過 2.5 億美元的運行成本效益。
Okay.
好的。
Before I dig into our big two growth levers, I want to provide our view on the market given last week's events in the world of AI.
在深入探討我們的兩大成長槓桿之前,我想根據上週人工智慧領域的事件來提供我們對市場的看法。
Today, enterprise CIOs are faced with the expectation that they will continue to deliver warp speed innovation at an efficient cost, and they have to push lots of data to the right users at the right places at the right time for the right cost.
如今,企業 CIO 面臨這樣的期望:他們將繼續以高效的成本實現超快的創新,並且必須以合理的成本在正確的時間將大量資料推送給正確的用戶。
And the architectural landscape has never been more complex, with apps and data sprinkled all over the place, on-prem, at the edge and in multiple clouds.
而且架構環境從未如此複雜,應用程式和資料散佈在各處、本地、邊緣和多個雲端。
High-speed, low-latency connectivity is table stakes, but it's not the end game.
高速、低延遲的連線是首要條件,但這並不是最終目標。
CIOs need digitally controlled higher bandwidth, higher performing, higher reliability and higher security networks to navigate this complexity.
CIO 需要數位控制的更高頻寬、更高效能、更高可靠性和更高安全性的網路來應對這種複雜性。
And that's exactly what we're building at Lumen, a digital platform on top of a rapidly expanding fiber network to help CIOs design, control, configure and consume network services in a multi-cloud AI first world.
這正是我們在 Lumen 所建構的,這是一個建立在快速擴展的光纖網路上的數位平台,旨在幫助 CIO 在多雲 AI 優先的世界中設計、控制、配置和使用網路服務。
So when the new global player in AI announces a disruptive breakthrough, we see that as a great thing.
因此,當人工智慧領域的新全球參與者宣布取得顛覆性突破時,我們會將其視為一件大事。
Competition increases velocity and decreases costs and basically accelerates the democratization of technology.
競爭提高了速度、降低了成本,從根本上加速了科技的民主化。
So in short, the disruption we saw in the market last week will likely make AI more accessible to companies, and that just means that our total available market for network fabric just got a lot bigger.
簡而言之,我們上週在市場上看到的顛覆可能會讓企業更容易獲得人工智慧,而這意味著我們的網路結構總可用市場將變得更大。
That's why we're confident in our two big bets.
這就是我們對我們的兩大賭注充滿信心的原因。
So let me crack into them.
因此讓我來破解它們。
Starting with the first one, building the backbone for the AI economy, we've begun construction on the backlog of work generated from the $8.5 billion in PCF sales, and it's going really well.
從第一個開始,建構人工智慧經濟的骨幹,我們已經開始建造由 85 億美元 PCF 銷售產生的積壓工作,而且進展非常順利。
I want to share more on our thinking about how we leverage our network for maximum shareholder returns.
我想進一步分享我們如何利用我們的網路來實現股東回報最大化的想法。
We are increasing two variables at the same time, capacity and utilization.
我們同時增加兩個變量,容量和利用率。
You should be able to see a high-level model on this chart in the webcast right now and I'll start with capacity on the left side of the page.
現在您應該能夠在網路廣播中的該圖表上看到一個高級模型,我將從頁面左側的容量開始。
Because we see a significant increase in demand for our network infrastructure across both the hyperscaler and enterprise market segments, we're driving network expansion in several ways.
由於我們看到超大規模和企業市場對我們的網路基礎設施的需求顯著增加,因此我們正在透過多種方式推動網路擴展。
We're building new routes funded by our customers, often multi-tenant with great economics.
我們正在建造由客戶資助的新航線,這些新航線通常是多租戶的,具有很高的經濟效益。
We're partnering with Corning to use their latest fiber innovations, allowing us to get as much as 4x more capacity from existing and new routes, and we're leveraging photonics innovation for up to 2x greater fiber efficiency.
我們正在與康寧合作,使用其最新的光纖創新,使我們能夠從現有和新路線中獲得高達 4 倍的容量,並且我們正在利用光子學創新將光纖效率提高 2 倍。
If you add all that up, our total network capacity has the potential to go from 12 million total intercity fiber miles in '22 to 47 million miles by '28, giving us unmatched room for growth for network services.
如果將所有這些加起來,我們的總網路容量有可能從 2022 年的 1200 萬英里城際光纖總容量增加到 2028 年的 4700 萬英里,為我們的網路服務提供無與倫比的成長空間。
And I'm not even including our 22 million metro miles in that number.
我甚至還沒有將我們的 2200 萬英里都市里程納入這個數字。
The second aspect of our plan to drive improved shareholder return is all about utilization of our assets.
我們提高股東回報計劃的第二個方面是資產的利用。
On the right side of the chart, you'll see that from '22 to '28, we simultaneously increase overall network capacity, as I just described, but we're also going to increase the overall utilization of our network from 57% to 70%.
在圖表的右側,您會看到,從 22 年到 28 年,我們同時增加了整體網路容量,正如我剛才所描述的,但我們也將把網路的整體利用率從 57% 提高到 70%。
This is because the hyperscalers are leasing once empty conduit and they're funding new builds while enterprises are upgrading their networks dramatically.
這是因為超大規模企業正在租賃曾經空置的管道並為新建設提供資金,而企業則正在大幅升級其網路。
In fact, we saw a nearly 50% increase in 100 and 400 gig wave sales across large enterprise and mid-markets in 2024 alone.
事實上,光是 2024 年,我們就看到大型企業和中型市場的 100 和 400 千兆波段銷售額就成長了近 50%。
We're closely monitoring customer demand signals, and we'll continue to make important capital investments in key major metros to capture this traffic growth.
我們正在密切關注客戶需求訊號,並將繼續在主要城市進行重要資本投資,以抓住這一流量成長機會。
Additionally, we'll continue to examine our utilization and capacity planning business rules for maximum shareholder return, adjusting as market dynamics dictate.
此外,我們將繼續審查我們的利用率和產能規劃業務規則,以實現股東回報最大化,並根據市場動態進行調整。
In summary, the growth lever of building the backbone for AI represents a huge accretive opportunity for this company.
總而言之,建立人工智慧骨幹的成長槓桿對該公司來說是一個巨大的增值機會。
We're not only driving the strongest utilization of our network assets in the history of the company, we have unmatched capacity for growth at exactly the right time.
我們不僅在公司歷史上實現了網路資產的最強利用率,而且在適當的時機實現了無與倫比的成長能力。
Moving on to our second growth vector, disrupting the market by cloudifying telecom.
接下來是我們第二個成長方向,透過電信雲端化顛覆市場。
Simply put, we're building a digital layer on top of our physical network to help us deliver friction-free, high-performing digital network experiences.
簡而言之,我們在實體網路上建立一個數位層,以幫助我們提供無摩擦、高效能的數位網路體驗。
So long down pipes, hello intelligent digital network fabric that enables CIOs to be successful in a multi-cloud AI first world.
再見,智慧數位網路結構,讓 CIO 能夠在多雲 AI 優先的世界中取得成功。
As I shared earlier, enterprise CIOs need to move workloads between locations, on-prem, at the edge, and multi-cloud, and it needs to be cost efficient and friction-free.
正如我之前所分享的,企業 CIO 需要在各個位置、本地、邊緣和多雲之間移動工作負載,並且需要具有成本效益且無摩擦。
But it's not, and it's not for two reasons.
但事實並非如此,原因有二。
First, legacy networks were not built for a multi-cloud world.
首先,傳統網路不是為多雲世界而建構的。
So enterprises were forced to use carrier-neutral facilities to access the cloud connectivity market driving growth and costly and inefficient cross-connects.
因此,企業被迫使用營運商中立的設施來存取雲端連接市場,從而推動成長以及昂貴且低效的交叉連接。
Second, most traditional telecom companies aren't building a platform for digital dynamic frictionless customer experiences.
其次,大多數傳統電信公司並未建置數位化動態無摩擦客戶體驗平台。
Now Lumen is fixing all of that using ourselves as customer one.
現在 Lumen 正在以我們自己作為第一個客戶來解決所有這些問題。
I'll share a specific example with a supporting graphic on the webcast that you should see right now.
我將在網路廣播中分享一個帶有支援圖形的具體範例,您現在就應該看到。
To enable our Quantum Fiber quote-to-cash process, for example, we utilize multiple cloud and SaaS providers.
例如,為了實現我們的 Quantum Fiber 報價到現金流程,我們利用多個雲端和 SaaS 提供者。
Order processing workloads are hosted on one public cloud leveraging its native capabilities for seamless flow-through provisioning.
訂單處理工作負載託管在一個公有雲上,利用其原生功能實現無縫流程配置。
But once it's processed, that data required for business operations and financial reporting is then transferred to our corporate data warehouse, which is hosted in a completely different public cloud.
但一旦處理完畢,業務營運和財務報告所需的資料就會被轉移到我們公司的資料倉儲,該倉庫託管在完全不同的公有雲中。
Using our own Lumen network fabric, which is now directly connected to three big public clouds, in a virtual networking ecosystem.
在虛擬網路生態系統中使用我們自己的 Lumen 網路結構,現在直接連接到三大公有雲。
Our Quantum Fiber quote-to-cash network architecture bypasses carrier-neutral facilities and eliminates physical cross-connects and their fees as well as reduces overall port usage.
我們的 Quantum Fiber 報價到現金網路架構繞過了營運商中立設施,消除了實體交叉連接及其費用,並減少了整體連接埠使用率。
The outcome is a modern multi-cloud network architecture at lower cost than traditional architectures with improved network speed, security and reliability.
結果是現代多雲網路架構比傳統架構成本更低,且網路速度、安全性和可靠性更高。
We plan to bring this lower cost, higher-performing architecture to our customers in late 2025.
我們計劃在 2025 年底向客戶提供這種成本更低、性能更高的架構。
And look, the point is this, how we cloudify ourselves to operate efficiently in a multi-cloud hybrid architecture world is informing how we innovate and commercialize our product and services portfolio for our customers.
關鍵在於,我們如何將自己雲化,以便在多雲混合架構的世界中高效運營,這將指導我們如何為客戶創新和商業化我們的產品和服務組合。
We're creating an innovative networking ecosystem that will bring new value to enterprise CIOs in today's multi-cloud AI first world.
我們正在創建一個創新的網路生態系統,它將為當今多雲 AI 優先世界的企業 CIO 帶來新的價值。
And this will give Lumen access to a net new total available market that we estimate to be at least $15 billion.
這將使 Lumen 進入一個淨新增總可用市場,我們估計該市場至少有 150 億美元。
We have the right assets, the right vision, the right team at exactly the right time, and that's why we're bullish on our pivot to growth.
我們在適當的時機擁有了適當的資產、正確的願景和適當的團隊,這就是我們對我們的成長轉型充滿信心的原因。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Chris.
現在我將把話題交給克里斯。
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Kate.
謝謝,凱特。
Lumen had a transformative year on many fronts.
Lumen 在許多方面經歷了變革的一年。
We completed the TSA in the first quarter, extending debt maturities to 2029 and beyond, providing over $1 billion in cash and access to a $1 billion revolver.
我們在第一季完成了 TSA,將債務期限延長至 2029 年及以後,提供超過 10 億美元的現金以及 10 億美元的循環信貸權限。
Last earnings call, we announced $8.5 billion in PCF deals, solidifying Lumen's place as the partner of choice in building the trusted networks for AI.
在上次財報電話會議中,我們宣布了價值 85 億美元的 PCF 交易,鞏固了 Lumen 作為構建 AI 可信任網路的首選合作夥伴的地位。
We successfully executed a debt exchange terming out over $800 million in 2026 through 2019 maturities to 2032.
我們成功進行了一項債務交換,金額超過 8 億美元,於 2026 年至 2019 年到期,至 2032 年到期。
And reduced overall debt by $1.6 billion in 2024 and recently sent redemption notices for another $200 million.
並在 2024 年減少了 16 億美元的總債務,最近又發出了 2 億美元的贖回通知。
Given our confidence in free cash flow generation, we contributed $170 million to our pension plans.
鑑於我們對自由現金流產生的信心,我們向退休金計畫投入了 1.7 億美元。
We continued to make progress in our selling motion with 2024 North American enterprise sales up over 15%.
我們的銷售行動持續取得進展,2024 年北美企業銷售額成長超過 15%。
And finally, mass markets had a record year with over 0.5 million new fiber homes passed and 161,000 net fiber adds, all while reducing our expenses.
最後,大眾市場創下了歷史新高的一年,新增光纖家庭超過 50 萬戶,淨光纖增加 161,000 條,同時我們也降低了開支。
Looking forward, 2025 will be a year of investment to reach our future goals.
展望未來,2025年將是我們實現未來目標的投資之年。
As Kate discussed, the PCS sales we signed in 2024 provide flexibility and liquidity to reduce our debt further, enhance our growth products, and invest in our simplification and modernization efforts.
正如凱特所討論的,我們在 2024 年簽署的 PCS 銷售提供了靈活性和流動性,以進一步減少我們的債務,增強我們的成長產品,並投資於我們的簡化和現代化工作。
Additionally, with the progress we've made to date, we estimate our run rate cost savings exiting 2025 to be approximately $250 million, a strong start towards our $1 billion goal exiting '27.
此外,憑藉迄今為止的進展,我們預計到 2025 年底,我們的營運成本節省將達到約 2.5 億美元,這為我們在 27 年底實現 10 億美元的目標邁出了堅實的一步。
With our 2025 investments and further execution on our modernization and simplification goals, we have confidence in margin expansion and total EBITDA returning to full year growth in 2026 and growing thereafter.
透過我們對 2025 年的投資以及對現代化和簡化目標的進一步執行,我們有信心在 2026 年實現利潤率擴大和總 EBITDA 恢復全年增長,並在此後繼續增長。
We believe the value creation path for Lumen is clear through additional sales balance sheet improvements and cost structure optimization, all as we continue to execute on our core strategic goals to drive operational excellence, build the backbone for AI and clarify telecom.
我們相信,透過額外的銷售資產負債表改進和成本結構優化,Lumen 的價值創造路徑是清晰的,所有這些都將隨著我們繼續執行核心策略目標以推動卓越營運、建立人工智慧骨幹和明確電信而實現。
Now let's move to the discussion of financial results for the fourth quarter.
現在讓我們來討論第四季的財務表現。
Total reported revenue declined 5.3% to $3.32 billion, the decline was due to the impact of divestitures, commercial agreements, and the sale of the CDN business.
報告總收入下降 5.3% 至 33.2 億美元,下降是由於資產剝離、商業協議和 CDN 業務出售的影響。
Business segment revenue declined 5.1% to $2.659 billion and approximately 33% of that decline was due to the impact of divestitures commercial agreements and the sale of the CDN business.
業務部門收入下降 5.1% 至 26.59 億美元,其中約 33% 的降幅是由於剝離商業協議和出售 CDN 業務的影響。
Mass Markets segment revenue declined 6.3% to $670 million and adjusted EBITDA was $1.052 billion with a 31.6% margin and free cash flow was negative $174 million.
大眾市場部門營收下降 6.3% 至 6.7 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 10.52 億美元,利潤率為 31.6%,自由現金流為負 1.74 億美元。
Now next, I'll review our detailed revenue results for the quarter on a year-over-year basis.
接下來,我將根據年比數據回顧本季的詳細收入結果。
And within our North American enterprise channels, which is our business segment excluding wholesale, international and other, revenue declined 2.2%.
在我們的北美企業通路中,即不包括批發、國際和其他業務的部門,收入下降了 2.2%。
North American enterprise Bro revenue increased 15.3% year-over-year, driven by public sector growth with continued pressure in nurture and harvest product revenue.
北美企業Bro營收年增15.3%,這得益於公共部門的成長以及培育和收穫產品收入的持續壓力。
Overall, the North American business declined 2.8%.
整體而言,北美業務下降了2.8%。
On a year-over-year basis, large enterprise revenue declined 5.5% in the fourth quarter and mid-market revenue declined approximately 9.8%.
與去年同期相比,第四季大型企業收入下降 5.5%,中型市場收入下降約 9.8%。
And both businesses positive grow revenue, 3.5% for large enterprise and 34% for mid-markets was offset by nurture and harvest.
兩項業務的收入均實現了正增長,大型企業增長 3.5%,中型市場增長 34%,但被培育和收穫所抵消。
Public sector revenue grew 11.5% year-over-year.
公共部門營收年增11.5%。
For the full year 2024, public sector revenue grew 3.4%.
2024年全年,公共部門營收成長3.4%。
As we said in the past, public sector revenue can be lumpy quarter-to-quarter, but we continue to see traction with large bookings in this space, which take time to ramp to revenue.
正如我們過去所說的那樣,公共部門的收入可能在各個季度之間波動,但我們繼續看到該領域的大量訂單呈現牽引力,這需要一些時間才能實現收入成長。
With respect to 2025 and as a result of significant rerating in the wholesale TDM space from select smaller off-net connectivity providers, we are working with our customers to either migrate or disconnect some services.
展望 2025 年,由於部分較小的離網連接供應商對批發 TDM 領域的評級大幅提升,我們正在與客戶合作,遷移或斷開某些服務。
While these actions will be a drag on public sector revenue in the first half of the year, we believe they are healthy for the overall business as we're making decisions that are margin accretive.
雖然這些措施將拖累上半年公共部門的收入,但我們認為,對於整體業務而言,這是有益的,因為我們正在做出增加利潤的決策。
Wholesale revenue declined approximately 4.5% year-over-year.
批發收入較去年同期下降約4.5%。
The harvest portion of the wholesale portfolio, which is comprised of products like TDM, voice and private line, saw a revenue contraction by 5.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.
批發業務組合中的收穫部分由TDM、語音和專線等產品組成,第四季營收年減5.2%。
This is primarily driven by telco partners that are selling legacy services.
這主要是由銷售傳統服務的電信合作夥伴所推動的。
Our harvest product revenue will likely continue to decline over time and is an area that we will manage for cash.
我們的收穫產品收入可能會隨著時間的推移而持續下降,這是我們將管理現金的領域。
Nurture revenue was down 11% in the fourth quarter on VPN and Ethernet declines, and wholesale grow revenue was positive 1.9%.
由於 VPN 和乙太網路的下滑,第四季度培育收入下降了 11%,批發成長收入成長了 1.9%。
International and other revenue declined 42.5%, driven primarily by the divestiture of our EMEA business and the sale of select CDN contracts in the fourth quarter of last year.
國際及其他收入下降 42.5%,主要原因是去年第四季度我們剝離了 EMEA 業務,並出售了部分 CDN 合約。
As a reminder, the EMEA transaction closed on November 23, 2023.
提醒一下,EMEA 交易於 2023 年 11 月 23 日完成。
Moving to our business product life cycle reporting.
轉向我們的商業產品生命週期報告。
I'll reference the results based on our North America enterprise channels. 2.2% year-over-year decrease was due to declines in return harvest offset by strength in growth, particularly enterprise broadband, dark fiber and IP.
我將參考我們北美企業通路的結果。 2.2% 的同比下降是由於回報下降被成長強勁所抵消,尤其是企業寬頻、暗光纖和 IP。
While results can vary in any quarter, we expect sustained growth in grow product revenue as we execute on our core turnaround.
雖然每季的結果都會有所不同,但隨著我們實現核心扭轉局面,我們預期產品收入將持續成長。
Within North American enterprise channels, grow products revenue increased 15.3% year over year, up from 4% year over year in the prior quarter.
在北美企業通路,種植產品營收年增 15.3%,高於上一季的 4%。
Importantly, Grow represents over 47% of our North America enterprise revenue, further reducing our reliance on legacy revenue.
重要的是,Grow 占我們北美企業收入的 47% 以上,進一步減少了我們對傳統收入的依賴。
Grow products carried an approximately 80% direct margin this quarter.
本季種植產品的直接利潤率約為 80%。
Nurture products revenue decreased 16.2% year-over-year, largely impacted by declines in VPN.
培育產品營收年減 16.2%,主要受到 VPN 下滑的影響。
Nurture represents approximately 26% of our North America enterprise revenue and for our total business segment carried an approximate 67% direct margin this quarter.
培育業務約占我們北美企業營收的 26%,本季我們整個業務部門的直接利潤率約為 67%。
Harvest products revenue decreased 7.3% year-over-year and continues to be negatively impacted by declines in TDM-based voice.
Harvest 產品收入年減 7.3%,並繼續受到基於 TDM 的語音下降的負面影響。
Harvest represented approximately 16% of our North America enterprise revenue in the fourth quarter.
Harvest 約占我們第四季北美企業營收的 16%。
For our total business segment, it carried an approximate 77% direct margin this quarter.
就我們的整個業務部門而言,本季的直接利潤率約為 77%。
Other product revenue declined 16.7% year over year.
其他產品收入較去年同期下降16.7%。
As a reminder, other product revenue tends to experience fluctuations due to the variable nature of these products.
需要提醒的是,由於這些產品的多變性質,其他產品的收入往往會出現波動。
Now moving on to mass markets.
現在轉向大眾市場。
Our fiber broadband revenue grew 18.9% year over year and represents 42% of mass markets broadband revenue.
我們的光纖寬頻收入年增18.9%,佔大眾市場寬頻收入的42%。
During the quarter, illuminated 105,000 fiber homes passed bringing our total to over $4.16 million as of December 31, achieving our full year 2024 target of 0.5 million homes passed.
本季度,我們為 105,000 戶光纖家庭提供照明,截至 12 月 31 日,我們的照明總額超過 416 萬美元,實現了我們 2024 年全年覆蓋 50 萬戶光纖家庭的目標。
We also added 42,000 Quantum Fiber customers, bringing fiber subs to nearly 1.1 million.
我們還增加了 42,000 名 Quantum Fiber 客戶,使光纖用戶總數達到近 110 萬。
Fiber ARPU was $61, and I would note that mass markets revenue declines improved year over year in 2024.
光纖 ARPU 為 61 美元,我想指出的是,2024 年大眾市場的收入下降幅度將比去年同期有所改善。
At the end of the fourth quarter, our penetration of legacy copper broadband was approximately 8%, and our Quantum Fiber penetration stood at approximately 26%.
截至第四季末,我們的傳統銅寬頻普及率約為 8%,量子光纖普及率約為 26%。
Now turning to adjusted EBITDA.
現在轉向調整後的 EBITDA。
For the fourth quarter of 2024.
2024 年第四季。
Adjusted EBITDA was $1.052 billion compared to $1.099 billion in the year ago quarter.
調整後 EBITDA 為 10.52 億美元,去年同期為 10.99 億美元。
For the fourth quarter of 2024, our adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.6%.
2024 年第四季度,我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.6%。
The EBITDA margin declined 40 basis points year-over-year compared to a 90-basis-point year-over-year decline in the third quarter.
EBITDA 利潤率年減 40 個基點,而第三季則較去年同期下降 90 個基點。
Special items impacting EBITDA totaled $132 million.
影響 EBITDA 的特殊項目總額為 1.32 億美元。
The majority of special items this quarter were related to transaction, separation, and real estate transaction costs.
本季的大多數特殊項目與交易、分離和房地產交易成本有關。
And lastly, capital expenditures were $915 million.
最後,資本支出為 9.15 億美元。
Free cash flow, excluding special items, was negative $174 million, mainly due to the timing of cash from PCF deals.
不包括特殊項目的自由現金流為負 1.74 億美元,主要由於 PCF 交易的現金時機。
We would expect free cash flow to be lumpy quarter to quarter as we move through the large PCF builds.
我們預計,隨著 PCF 大幅增加,自由現金流將逐季波動。
Now moving on to our financial outlook for the full year 2025.
現在讓我們來談談 2025 年全年財務展望。
We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion.
我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 32 億美元至 34 億美元之間。
Our EBITDA guidance includes organic declines similar to 2024 and roughly $200 million in incremental costs, including the annualized spend associated with building the team to expand and deliver on the PCF partnerships, the proactive disconnects of uneconomical legacy services, and additional investments in cloud infrastructure to reduce future CapEx associated with utilizing our own data center assets.
我們的 EBITDA 指引包括與 2024 年類似的有機下降和約 2 億美元的增量成本,包括與組建團隊以擴大和履行 PCF 合作夥伴關係相關的年度支出、主動斷開不經濟的遺留服務以及對雲端基礎設施的額外投資,以減少與利用我們自己的資料中心資產相關的未來資本支出。
Excluded from the guidance above is roughly $300 million in transformation costs to begin the multiyear task of reducing expenses by $1 billion.
上述指引不包括約 3 億美元的轉型成本,以開始為期多年的 10 億美元削減開支任務。
As we've stated on prior calls, we'd also like to give some preliminary thoughts on 2026 EBITDA.
正如我們在先前的電話會議上所說,我們也想對 2026 年 EBITDA 提出一些初步想法。
Given anticipated improvements in sales performance, lower absolute declines in the legacy products, and the approximately $250 million in run rate savings exiting 2025, we see 2026 EBITDA being greater than $3.5 billion with growth in future years.
鑑於銷售業績預期改善、傳統產品的絕對降幅較低以及 2025 年底約 2.5 億美元的運行率節省,我們預計 2026 年 EBITDA 將超過 35 億美元,並且未來幾年還將成長。
Moving to capital spending and our other outlook metrics.
轉向資本支出和我們的其他展望指標。
For the full year 2025, we expect total capital expenditures in the range of $4.1 billion to $4.3 billion.
我們預計 2025 年全年總資本支出將在 41 億至 43 億美元之間。
The majority of the increase in CapEx from 2024 to 2025 is associated with the cost to execute against our signed PCF contracts.
2024 年至 2025 年資本支出的大部分成長與執行我們簽署的 PCF 合約的成本有關。
We continue to see maintenance CapEx between $400 million and $600 million and Quantum Fiber CapEx at approximately $1 billion similar to 2024 as our homes past target for 2025 is also $500,000.
我們繼續看到維護資本支出在 4 億至 6 億美元之間,量子光纖資本支出約為 10 億美元,與 2024 年相似,因為我們 2025 年的房屋過去目標也是 50 萬美元。
The majority of the remaining CapEx is associated with our core enterprise business.
剩餘資本支出大部分與我們的核心企業業務相關。
We expect to generate free cash flow in the range of $700 million to $900 million for the full year 2025.
我們預計 2025 年全年將產生 7 億至 9 億美元的自由現金流。
Additionally, we estimate net cash interest to be $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion and cash taxes to be $100 million to $200 million in 2025, given a prepayment in 2024.
此外,我們估計,假設 2024 年預付款到賬,2025 年的淨現金利息將達到 12 億至 13 億美元,現金稅將達到 1 億至 2 億美元。
In terms of other special items for 2025, we continue to expect dedicated third-party costs to support transition services for the divestitures.
對於 2025 年的其他特殊項目,我們繼續預計有專門的第三方成本來支援資產剝離的過渡服務。
The reimbursement for these services will be in other income with no material net impact to our cash flows.
這些服務的報銷將以其他收入的形式支付,不會對我們的現金流產生重大淨影響。
Additionally, special items include costs associated with Lumen's $1 billion in cost takeout by year-end 2027.
此外,特殊項目包括與 Lumen 到 2027 年底的 10 億美元成本支出相關的費用。
Before we move to Q&A, just a couple of housekeeping items.
在我們進入問答環節之前,我們先來討論幾個基本事項。
First, please remember that the first quarter typically has a higher -- seasonally higher expenses related to the timing of bonus payments and other prepaid expenses.
首先,請記住,第一季的費用通常較高——與獎金支付時間和其他預付費用有關的季節性費用較高。
Additionally, as noted in our financial trending schedule, fourth quarter '24 was positively impacted by the timing of public sector revenue and EBITDA, which tends to fluctuate quarter-to-quarter.
此外,正如我們的財務趨勢表所指出的,24年第四季受到公共部門收入和EBITDA時間的正面影響,而公共部門營收和EBITDA往往呈現逐季波動的趨勢。
Following the great strides forward in 2024, Lumen's transformation is on track.
繼2024年大步邁進之後,Lumen的轉型已步入正軌。
The progress we've made around our core strategic goals has resulted in a stronger balance sheet, improvements in sales, a decreased reliance on legacy products, stronger free cash flow generation, and progress on modernization and simplification, giving us increased confidence in an inflection to EBITDA growth in 2026 and beyond.
我們在核心策略目標方面所取得的進展包括:資產負債表更加強勁、銷售額提高、對傳統產品的依賴減少、自由現金流產生更加強勁、現代化和簡化方面取得進展,這使我們對 2026 年及以後 EBITDA 增長的拐點更加有信心。
We will now take your questions.
我們現在將回答大家的提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指令)
Michael Rollins, Citi.
花旗銀行的麥可‧羅林斯。
Michael Rollins - Analyst
Michael Rollins - Analyst
A couple of questions, if I could.
如果可以的話,我有幾個問題。
First, if you look just in total in terms of what's happening with sales that you mentioned in the business, I think, in North America, up 15%.
首先,如果您只看總體情況,您提到的業務銷售情況,我認為北美的銷售額增長了 15%。
How is that translating to progress in the verticals like large enterprise and mid-market.
這對於大型企業和中型市場等垂直領域的進步有何意義?
And then secondly, just looking at the schedule that you provide, it was like the customer verticals and product verticals.
其次,只要查看您提供的時間表,它就像客戶垂直市場和產品垂直市場。
As you mentioned, grow was up sequentially, and it looks like maybe about $82 million sequentially and wholesale, I think it was wholesale harvest was also a significant number in the quarter.
正如您所提到的,種植規模環比增長,看起來可能環比增長約 8200 萬美元,而批發規模,我認為批發收穫在本季度也是一個相當可觀的數字。
How much of that might have been recurring, and it's a bouncing off point for 1Q 25 versus onetime in nature?
其中有多少可能是重複發生的,並且是 2025 年第一季的反彈點,還是一次性的?
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I'll start with the end of the question first.
我先從問題的結尾開始。
We're pleased with the grow product revenue broadly, and I'll get into that in a little more detail.
我們對產品收入的廣泛成長感到滿意,我將更詳細地介紹這一點。
The quarter was positively impacted by our state of California initiative around PCF that was announced about a year ago, I guess.
我想,本季度受到了我們大約一年前宣布的加州圍繞 PCF 的倡議的積極影響。
And a lot was delivered in the quarter so revenue started to get turned up.
本季度交付了大量產品,因此收入開始增加。
But I think what's really interesting when you look at the impact overall in the portfolio as I touched on it in my prepared remarks, but the grow bucket is now almost half of what we sell.
但我認為,當你看看整個投資組合的影響時,真正有趣的是,正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,增長桶現在幾乎占到我們所銷售量的一半。
And I think when you look at our overall growth rates vis-a-vis our major competitors who had very different performance than us, it really relates to the customer experience that we're driving and the focus on those grow products as we go forward.
我認為,當你看到我們的整體成長率與主要競爭對手相比時,他們的表現與我們有很大不同,這實際上與我們所推動的客戶體驗以及我們未來對這些成長產品的關注有關。
And you can actually see that in our wholesale results, right, where legacy declines were significant, but the grow product sales were actually pretty low.
您實際上可以在我們的批發業績中看到,傳統產品的銷售量下降幅度很大,但種植產品的銷售量實際上相當低。
The competition is just not focused on it.
競爭對手並沒有集中於此。
We are.
是的。
And so that's without the clarification of telecom.
因此,這還沒有澄清電信問題。
And ultimately, to your point, sales obviously perceive revenue.
最終,正如您所說,銷售顯然能夠感知收入。
2024 was challenged with disconnects.
2024年面臨斷網的挑戰。
We talked about some forced disconnects we're going to do in the first half of this year.
我們討論了一下今年上半年要採取的一些強制斷網措施。
But as it relates to things like renewals and the things that are, I would say, manageable and margin accretive to us, we've got motions in place to drive improvements on those as we move into '25.
但就續約等事宜以及我認為對我們來說可控且能增加利潤的事情而言,我們已經制定了動議來推動這些事宜在進入25年時得到改善。
Operator
Operator
Sebastiano Petti, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的塞巴斯蒂亞諾·佩蒂。
Sebastiano Petti
Sebastiano Petti
Thank you for the 2025 EBITDA outlook.
感謝您對 2025 年 EBITDA 的展望。
But I wanted to see how you can maybe help us think about, Chris, the top line dynamics there, particularly in light of the public sector comments.
但我想看看你能否幫助我們思考一下克里斯那裡的頂線動態,特別是考慮到公共部門的評論。
But as AI fabric revenue come online in the next several years, what's the inflection or the growth to -- what gets you to top line growth, I guess, in the business?
但是,隨著未來幾年 AI 布料收入的上線,什麼樣的轉折點或成長——我想,是什麼讓您的業務實現營收成長?
Or what's the expectation around that?
或對此的期望是什麼?
And public sector did grow in 2024, but it sounds like there's going to be some one-time items that weigh on it in the first half of the year.
2024 年公共部門確實會成長,但聽起來上半年會有一些一次性專案對其造成壓力。
Is the expectation that public sector growth continues from here?
公共部門的成長是否有望持續下去?
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, so a couple of things.
是的,有幾件事。
On the overall revenue trends, we obviously don't guide revenue, but I'll provide some color.
對於整體收入趨勢,我們顯然不會指導收入,但我會提供一些資訊。
When we said that our revenue trends will look largely similar to what we saw in 2024, there's a lot of activity in there like the disconnects that I talked about that impact that.
當我們說我們的收入趨勢將與 2024 年的趨勢大致相似時,其中有許多活動,例如我談到的脫節會對其產生影響。
And then you've got underlying improvements in things like sales and other disconnects that are more manageable that they kind of net out.
然後你就會在銷售和其他脫節方面獲得根本性的改善,這些改善將變得更容易管理。
I think when we move into we should see continued improvement there because we'll be lapping things like the force disconnects.
我認為,當我們進入時,我們應該看到那裡持續的改善,因為我們將會處理諸如強制斷開之類的事情。
We're going to start to turn on some of that PCF revenue.
我們將開始利用部分PCF收入。
There's going to be very little this year.
今年的數量將會非常少。
That's really more 26%, 27% ramping fully and 28%.
這實際上相當於 26%、27%(全面提升)和 28%。
And we've also got new product announcements that we'll be making that ultimately benefit as we go forward.
我們也會發布新的產品公告,這些產品最終會對我們未來的發展有益。
The way we can get there though, really big picture, if you just forecast market declines against our nurture and harvest buckets and you put us at growing at market rates on things like IP and Waves and, quite frankly, I think we do better than market, and Kate alluded to that, we get to growth in the 28%, 29% window on revenue.
然而,我們實現這一目標的方式是,從大局來看,如果你只是預測市場下滑與我們的培育和收穫桶相比的情況,並且你讓我們在 IP 和 Waves 等方面以市場速度增長,坦率地說,我認為我們比市場做得更好,凱特也提到了這一點,我們的收入增長率達到了 28% 到 29%。
That's really where we inflect.
這才是我們真正動搖的地方。
So there's no heroic assumptions being made here.
因此,這裡不存在任何大膽的假設。
And importantly, the platform layer that is so critical to differentiating Lumen is not really included in that math.
重要的是,對於 Lumen 的區分至關重要的平台層實際上並沒有包含在該計算中。
So our ability to really disrupt the space is a tremendous opportunity for us.
因此,我們真正顛覆這個領域的能力對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。
As it relates specifically to public sector, tough to call.
由於它與公共部門具體相關,因此很難判斷。
I would say in itself, it's challenging because of the disconnects that were going to take place in the first half, but the team is very focused on -- aside from that trying to grow this year.
我想說,這本身就很有挑戰性,因為上半年將會出現一些脫節,但球隊非常專注於——除此之外,今年還將努力實現成長。
So more to come as we move through the year, it's a little early to call.
所以,隨著時間的流逝,還會有更多消息傳出,現在說這些還太早。
Operator
Operator
Batya Levi
巴蒂亞·列維
Batya Levi - Analyst
Batya Levi - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
A couple of questions.
幾個問題。
First, on your network utilization chart, what kind of enterprise needs growth are you assuming that drives your assumption for lower utilization for the enterprise segment by 28%.
首先,在您的網路利用率圖表上,您假設哪種類型的企業需要成長,從而導致企業部門的使用率降低 28%。
Is that just a function of revenue mix, meaning much higher growth from the hyperscaler side versus the enterprise?
這只是收入組合的功能嗎,是否意味著超大規模企業的成長速度比企業高得多?
Or is there anything else that's in there?
或者裡面有別的東西嗎?
And then the second question if you don't mind helping out with the cadence of incremental cost we should expect for '25.
然後第二個問題是,如果您不介意幫助我們了解 25 年預計的增量成本節奏。
I believe you mentioned $200 million included in the EBITDA guide, and there's an incremental $300 million that's not included.
我相信您提到 EBITDA 指南中包含了 2 億美元,但還有 3 億美元的增量未包含在內。
And within free cash flow, are you assuming any incremental deferred revenue?
在自由現金流中,您是否假設有任何增量遞延收入?
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'll let Chris hit the last part of your question first, and then I'll hit the utilization capacity chart.
我會讓克里斯先回答你問題的最後一部分,然後我再回答利用率容量圖表。
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes.
是的。
We're not assuming any new PCF deals in either the EBITDA or the free cash flow.
我們不假設 EBITDA 或自由現金流中有任何新的 PCF 交易。
So that was your last question, I think.
我想這是你的最後一個問題。
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
However
然而
--
--
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
But we continue to be deep in those conversations.
但我們仍在深入討論這些主題。
And as those deals are confirmed, we will obviously be updating guidance, which is very consistent with, obviously, what we've done to date.
隨著這些交易得到確認,我們顯然會更新指引,這顯然與我們迄今為止所做的非常一致。
Yes.
是的。
So within EBITDA, there's a $200 million headwind, which really relates to three things.
因此,在 EBITDA 中,存在著 2 億美元的逆風,這實際上與三件事有關。
It's the ramp-up that we've talked about last year and the team required to do these big PCF builds.
這是我們去年討論過的提升,也是團隊進行這些大型 PCF 建置所需的。
It's a shift in our strategy to move from on-prem data centers to cloud.
這是我們的策略從本地資料中心轉變為雲端的轉變。
As Kate said, we're customer number one, but that's a shift from CapEx to OpEx.
正如凱特所說,我們是第一個客戶,但這是從資本支出到營運支出的轉變。
And we're basically avoiding quite frankly, about a $0.5 billion investment in data centers in the coming years by that shift.
坦白說,透過這種轉變,我們基本上避免了未來幾年在資料中心上約 5 億美元的投資。
And then it's the TDM disconnect from those smaller off-net providers that we're driving.
然後就是我們正在推動的與那些較小的離網供應商的 TDM 斷開連接。
So that's the $200 million in EBITDA.
這就是 2 億美元的 EBITDA。
The $300 million in special items really relates to dedicated expenses associated with getting the $1 billion of cost out and they're onetime in nature and they will go away.
3 億美元的特殊項目實際上與消除 10 億美元成本的專用開支有關,它們本質上是一次性的,並且會消失。
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay.
好的。
And then the first part of your question about utilization, it's really important to note that the utilization chart is really about fiber miles.
然後,關於利用率的問題的第一部分,需要特別注意的是,利用率圖表實際上是關於光纖英里的。
And so it's the total fiber in our entire network and how each of these major segments, enterprise, consisting of commercial public sector and wholesale customers as well as our own use of the network through services, and then the hyperscalers in a different category.
因此,它是我們整個網路中的總光纖,以及每個主要部分,企業,由商業公共部門和批發客戶組成,以及我們自己透過服務對網路的使用,然後是不同類別的超大規模器。
And so we're increasing both the capacity with innovation, putting net new fiber solutions in there, which allow for up to 4X the capacity, better photonics, et cetera, greater density, greater efficiency in the same stretch of conduit.
因此,我們透過創新來提高容量,引入全新的光纖解決方案,使容量提高 4 倍,光子學效果更好,密度更高,在同一段管道內效率更高。
And then, of course, we're adding new routes.
然後,當然,我們也會增加新的路線。
I think the big piece here is there was a lot of unused conduit.
我認為這裡最大的問題是有很多未使用的管道。
It was empty for 25 years, and we were able to lease it to the hyperscalers to connect to their data centers.
它空置了 25 年,我們可以將它租給超大規模企業,以連接到他們的資料中心。
And so that's why the chart looks so dramatic in terms of the increase of the hyperscaler utilization.
這就是為什麼該圖表在超大規模利用率的成長方面看起來如此引人注目的原因。
But it's not taking away from enterprise.
但它並沒有從企業中奪走。
And in fact, we have more enterprise growth capacity that we've ever had before with these innovations.
事實上,憑藉這些創新,我們的企業成長能力比以往任何時候都更強。
Operator
Operator
David Barden, Bank of America.
美國銀行的戴維·巴登(David Barden)。
David Barden - Analyst
David Barden - Analyst
So I guess just maybe for Chris, two questions.
所以我想也許對克里斯來說,有兩個問題。
The first would be with respect to the free cash flow guidance this year and maybe as it translates into 2026, is it would be, how much money is coming in from the construction contract customers versus how much is going out.
第一個是關於今年的自由現金流指引,也許到 2026 年,從建築合約客戶那裡得到多少錢以及流出多少錢。
And so if we excluded that, what would the cash flow actually look like?
那麼,如果我們排除這一點,現金流實際上會是什麼樣子?
That's question one.
這是第一個問題。
And then the second question would be, I think, Chris, you also kind of alluded to this, is that as we look at 2026 and then even more in '27 and beyond, the accounting of how we put the cash flow we're getting today into the income statement down the road when we've built it and then we can start accounting for it, what kind of contribution is that making to the 2026 better than $3.5 billion EBITDA expectation?
然後第二個問題是,我想,克里斯,你也提到了這一點,當我們展望 2026 年,甚至展望 2027 年及以後時,我們如何將今天獲得的現金流放入未來的損益表中,當我們建立它時,然後我們就可以開始對其進行核算,這對 2026 年的 EBITDA 預期有什麼樣的貢獻?
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, so a couple of things.
是的,有幾件事。
On the 2026, while PCF starts to roll in, it's actually going to be pretty small.
到 2026 年,雖然 PCF 開始湧入,但其規模實際上會非常小。
So we're not -- because we're still at the very early stages of it.
所以我們不會—因為我們仍處於非常早期的階段。
So I would say that the $3.5 billion, the increase that you see is largely driven by the modernization and simplification efforts.
所以我想說,您看到的 35 億美元的成長主要是由現代化和簡化工作所推動的。
And that is more than offsetting kind of legacy declines.
這足以抵消遺留的衰退。
And again, keep in mind, I mean, we have now been disclosing kind of the grow nurture harvest buckets.
再說一次,請記住,我的意思是,我們現在已經揭露了種植培育收穫桶的類型。
And I think that will evolve to more disclosures in time.
我認為,隨著時間的推移,將會有更多的資訊揭露。
But we've been doing that now for almost three years, David, and the mix has substantially changed in our favor because of the focus that the company has had.
但是,大衛,我們現在已經這樣做了近三年,由於公司一直保持專注,業務組合已經發生了實質性的有利於我們的變化。
So Don't forget to model every quarter, mix improvements as legacy continues to become a smaller and smaller piece of what we do.
因此,不要忘記每個季度進行建模,隨著遺留問題在我們所做的工作中所佔的比例越來越小,混合改進。
And sorry, remind me, what was the first question?
抱歉,請提醒我一下,第一個問題是什麼?
David Barden - Analyst
David Barden - Analyst
Just on the free cashflow.
僅依賴自由現金流。
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes.
是的。
So I want to be really clear before I tell you, I'm not going to give you that detail.
所以在告訴你之前我想先明確一點,我不會告訴你這個細節。
We said, and I want to be really transparent about this.
我們說過,我希望對此事保持真正透明。
We had a funding gap before we had the PCF deals.
在達成PCF交易之前,我們就存在資金缺口。
And that remains to be true.
事實也是如此。
And the PCF deals, not only fill that funding gap, it's allowed us to lean in far more heavily into our transformation efforts, and that all remains to be true.
PCF 交易不僅填補了資金缺口,還使我們能夠更加投入轉型工作中,而這一切仍然沒有改變。
We're not going to give '26 guidance on that yet because here's what I can tell you for certain.
我們暫時不會就此給出 26 條指導,因為這是我可以肯定地告訴你的訊息。
There's meaningful things that we can and will do over time as it relates to more PCF contracts, debt refinancings, a number of levers that we can pull that ultimately drive improved free cash flow as we move through the year.
隨著時間的推移,我們可以而且將會做一些有意義的事情,因為這與更多的PCF合約、債務再融資以及我們可以採取的一系列措施有關,這些措施最終將在全年推動自由現金流的改善。
So, more to come as we go through the year.
因此,隨著時間的流逝,我們將迎來更多。
This guidance doesn't assume any of those refinancings.
本指南不假設任何此類再融資。
This guidance doesn't assume any PCF deals.
本指南不假設任何 PCF 交易。
It doesn't assume any major transactions.
它不假設任何重大交易。
Any and all of those things could happen, and we'll continue to give you updates.
所有這些事情都有可能發生,我們將繼續向您提供最新消息。
But I think there's far more tailwinds to our cash flow story than there are headwinds.
但我認為,我們的現金流狀況的順風遠多於逆風。
David Barden - Analyst
David Barden - Analyst
And Jim, before you cut me off if it's possible, I would love to -- Chris, one more question, which is -- we've seen some pretty successful fiber securitization deals out of Unity, out of Zayo.
吉姆,在你打斷我之前,如果可能的話,我很想——克里斯,還有一個問題,那就是——我們已經看到 Unity 和 Zayo 的一些相當成功的光纖證券化交易。
You guys obviously have redone your whole balance sheet and I'm not smart enough to figure out how much opportunity is there for you to kind of take advantage of what's happening in the market right now for fiber financing?
你們顯然已經重做了整個資產負債表,而我還不夠聰明,無法弄清楚你們有多少機會利用目前光纖融資市場的狀況?
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes.
是的。
It's a good question, David.
這是個好問題,大衛。
It is an opportunity.
這是一個機會。
But I think that is on the list of priorities versus the list of priorities.
但我認為這是在優先事項清單上而不是優先事項清單上。
There's a number of things that we can and will be in around the debt structure that I think really get to putting the company in more of what I would call a normal capital structure.
我認為,我們可以而且將會圍繞債務結構採取一系列措施,真正使公司更接近所謂的正常資本結構。
And at that point, then we can start to look at those things that are on the D list, but more to come.
此時,我們就可以開始查看 D 清單中的內容,但接下來還會有更多內容。
Operator
Operator
Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的吉姆·施奈德。
Jim Schneider - Analyst
Jim Schneider - Analyst
First of all, I was wondering if you could maybe contextualize your view on the recent Deepseek announcement.
首先,我想知道您是否可以就最近的 Deepseek 公告闡述您的看法。
I realize it's still very early days.
我意識到現在還為時過早。
But directionally, how do you think this changes the connectivity market going forward?
但從方向來看,您認為這將如何改變未來的連結市場?
Do you think this is likely to result in, because of the lower cost, more inference or more training?
您認為這是否可能由於成本較低而導致更多的推理或更多的訓練?
Or could we actually get less training and more inference?
或者我們實際上可以減少訓練,增加推理嗎?
And what do you think that means, if anything, for the content demand needs you're seeing from hyperscalers?
您認為這對超大規模資料中心的內容需求意味著什麼?
Do you think there's a chance that we could actually exceed less?
您認為我們實際上有可能超過這個數字嗎?
Or is it more likely that we actually see the market stimulated by lower cost?
或者更有可能的是,我們實際上看到市場因成本降低而受到刺激?
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, it's a great question.
是的,這是一個很好的問題。
So I think as I noted in my prepared remarks, this is going to accelerate the democratization of AI, okay?
所以我認為,正如我在準備好的發言中提到的,這將加速人工智慧的民主化,好嗎?
So Deepseek is putting pressure on everybody to go faster to innovate and to take cost down and to make the technology more accessible.
因此,Deepseek 正在向所有人施加壓力,要求他們加快創新、降低成本並使技術更易於獲得。
And when you've got more companies that have to navigate in the multi-cloud AI-first world, as I described, that's more total available market for us to sell our connectivity fabric into.
正如我所描述的,當有更多公司必須在多雲 AI 優先的世界中導航時,我們可以向其銷售連接結構的總可用市場就更大了。
So we see this as an increase in the total available market and a huge opportunity for us.
因此,我們認為這將擴大整個可用市場,並為我們帶來巨大的機會。
And we have a pretty good head start in this space, and we're investing heavily in a platform to differentiate, and we think it's going to allow us to capture share.
我們在這個領域已經佔據了很好的領先優勢,並且我們正在大力投資一個差異化的平台,我們認為這將使我們獲得市場份額。
Jim Schneider - Analyst
Jim Schneider - Analyst
And then maybe as a follow-up.
然後或許作為後續行動。
Can I maybe just sort of ask about the sort of competitive dynamics you're expecting to see in the PCF market going forward?
我是否可以問一下,您預期未來 PCF 市場將會出現什麼樣的競爭態勢?
I mean, clearly, you've talked about all the reasons why you believe you have a privileged advantaged market position today.
我的意思是,很明顯,你已經談論了你認為自己目前擁有特權優勢市場地位的所有原因。
One of those, I believe, is because of the empty or available conduits you have to fill right now.
我認為其中之一是因為您現在必須填充空的或可用的管道。
But I'm sort of curious, as we go into the next couple of years, do you see more competition for these kinds of deals?
但我有點好奇,在接下來的幾年裡,你是否會看到這類交易的競爭更加激烈?
And do you see your sort of your lead extending yourself?
您是否認為自己的領先優勢還在擴大?
Or do you think more incremental competition is likely to come in?
或者您認為可能會出現更多漸進式的競爭?
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, of course, Jim.
是的,當然,吉姆。
So first of all, we're grateful for the lead.
首先,我們非常感謝您的領導。
It was nice to get $8.5 billion in there before anybody else realized that this was a market.
在其他人意識到這個市場之前就獲得 85 億美元的投資是件好事。
But we're paranoid, and we're going to maintain focus on building out the competitive moat.
但我們很謹慎,我們將繼續專注於建造競爭護城河。
Our network has unmatched coverage.
我們的網路覆蓋範圍無與倫比。
It has unique routes.
它有獨特的路線。
And we've invested heavily in the fiber solutions that, frankly, our competition hasn't, so we're in the right places with the amount of capacity and the performance that everybody expects, but that's just the infrastructure talking.
而且我們在光纖解決方案上投入了巨資,坦率地說,我們的競爭對手還沒有這樣做,因此我們處於正確的位置,擁有每個人都期望的容量和性能,但這只是基礎設施方面的問題。
I think what's differentiating is the platform on top, and that's becoming more and more interesting to, frankly, all of our customer segments as we're able to present them with a network fabric that gives them access to all the capabilities no matter where they are.
我認為差異化在於頂層平台,坦白說,這對我們所有的客戶群來說都變得越來越有趣,因為我們能夠為他們提供一個網路結構,讓他們無論身在何處都能存取所有功能。
We're pretty pumped about our position.
我們對我們的地位非常興奮。
We think we're going to continue to be able to execute well and the future is pretty bright.
我們認為我們將繼續保持良好的執行力,而且未來非常光明。
Chris, do you have anything to add to that?
克里斯,你還有什麼要補充嗎?
Operator
Operator
Jonathan Chaplin, New Street Research.
喬納森·卓別林(Jonathan Chaplin),New Street Research。
Jonathan Chaplin - Managing Partner
Jonathan Chaplin - Managing Partner
I'm wondering if you could give us an update on how things are progressing with the fiber sales.
我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹光纖銷售的進展。
And then in the context of the fiber cell, it seems to me that the ultimate owners of these assets are probably one of the three big national wireless carriers.
然後在光纖蜂窩的背景下,在我看來,這些資產的最終所有者可能是三大國家無線營運商之一。
And I would have thought they would value copper assets in addition to fiber assets.
我原本以為他們除了重視光纖資產之外還會重視銅資產。
And I'm wondering if there's a way you can structure the sale of fiber that gives the buyer of that asset, the ability to use your copper infrastructure to build more fiber?
我想知道是否有辦法建立光纖銷售,使該資產的購買者能夠使用您的銅基礎設施來建立更多的光纖?
And then looking at the progress that AT&T has made with opening I'm wondering if there's an opportunity for you guys in pursuing that or whether that's an opportunity you might hand off to somebody else as well?
然後看看 AT&T 在開業方面的進展,我想知道你們是否有機會去追求這個目標,或者你們可以將這個機會交給其他人?
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, it's a good question.
是的,這是個好問題。
And I'm going to stick to things that we said publicly.
我將堅持我們公開說過的話。
So first of all, it's interesting because there are two schools of thought, right?
首先,這很有趣,因為有兩種思想流派,對吧?
One could be sell the whole thing, but there's been a lot of work done, good work that has said yes, but you also give up a lot of EBITDA on that, and is it really a delevering transaction.
一種選擇是將整個公司出售,但我們已經做了很多工作,很多工作都表示可以,但你也因此放棄了大量的 EBITDA,這真的是去槓桿交易嗎?
The comment that we've made is think about it as two businesses, right?
我們所做的評論是將其視為兩項業務,對嗎?
You have a fiber business that today is doing just tremendously in terms of its build-outs, but isn't yet in a position where it's generating much EBITDA.
您的光纖業務目前在建設方面表現非常出色,但尚未達到產生大量 EBITDA 的水平。
There's a lot of that it goes into driving customer penetration.
它為推動客戶滲透做出了許多努力。
And at the same time, it's consuming $1 billion a year in CapEx.
同時,它每年的資本支出高達 10 億美元。
The bulk of the EBITDA sits on copper today, which doesn't have a huge CapEx burden, basically some maintenance.
目前,EBITDA 的大部分來自於銅,銅並沒有巨大的資本支出負擔,基本上只是一些維護費用。
So could somebody be interested in all that?
那麼有人會對這一切感興趣嗎?
Yes.
是的。
Could somebody be interested in pieces?
有人對這些作品有興趣嗎?
Yes.
是的。
We're open to any and all of those discussions, and we'll see where it takes us.
我們對所有此類討論都持開放態度,並希望看到其將會帶來什麼結果。
But ultimately, we've said this for years, it comes down to valuation.
但最終,我們多年來一直這樣說,一切都歸結於估值。
And at the right time, we'll make that decision.
在適當的時候,我們會做出決定。
And as that decision in that moment comes, we'll obviously share it with you.
當那一刻做出決定時,我們當然會與你們分享。
So that's how we think about it.
這就是我們的想法。
As it relates to copper decom specifically, think about copper decom being largely market-driven, not consumer-driven because copper e-com is really both an enterprise and a consumer motion.
由於它與銅裝飾具體相關,因此認為銅裝飾主要由市場驅動,而不是消費者驅動,因為銅電子商務實際上既是一種企業運動,也是一種消費者運動。
And so I think like a lot of our competitors, that's how we think about it.
所以我認為,我們和許多競爭對手一樣,也是這樣想的。
We have been very aggressive about -- in the consumer space, converting copper to fiber where we do have fiber passing because it's a better outcome for the customer and it's a better outcome for us, and that will continue.
在消費領域,我們一直非常積極地將銅線轉換為光纖,我們確實有光纖傳輸,因為這對客戶來說是一個更好的結果,對我們來說也是一個更好的結果,而且這種情況會持續下去。
But the copper decom process, there's a playbook that we've developed.
但對於銅的分解過程,我們已經制定了一個劇本。
Frankly, it's part of our modernization and simplification.
坦白說,這是我們現代化和簡化的一部分。
There's a lot of unlock there.
那裡有很多東西需要解鎖。
And we think there's even more EBITDA to be generated in the coming years through those activities.
我們認為,未來幾年透過這些活動將產生更多的 EBITDA。
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes.
是的。
It's a major tenant of driving operational excellence, is wire center by wire center across the country.
它是推動卓越營運的主要承租人,是全國範圍內的一個電線中心。
We have a P&L view so we can see it all now, and it makes for great decision-making, and it's a huge vector, as Chris said, of our cost takeout.
我們有損益視圖,因此我們現在可以看到一切,這有助於做出正確的決策,正如克里斯所說,它是我們成本削減的巨大載體。
Jonathan Chaplin - Managing Partner
Jonathan Chaplin - Managing Partner
Is that part of the $1 billion?
這是 10 億美元的一部分嗎?
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Operator
Operator
Nick Del Deo, MoffettNathanson.
尼克·德爾迪奧、莫菲特·納森森。
Nick Del Deo - Managing Director
Nick Del Deo - Managing Director
First, I guess what happened in the public vector in the quarter, it's not still entirely clear to me.
首先,我猜測本季公共載體中發生了什麼,對我來說仍然不完全清楚。
Chris, you said it was driven by a lot of sales or turn up services to the state of California.
克里斯,您說這是由加州的大量銷售或服務推動的。
Is that revenue largely recurring?
這些收入大部分是經常性的嗎?
Or were there onetime delivery or performance fees limped in there?
或是否有一次性交付費用或績效費用?
I'm just trying to get a sense as to the right baseline.
我只是想了解正確的基線。
And then you're looking at your -- sorry, go ahead, sorry.
然後你看著你的——對不起,繼續吧,對不起。
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, just I'll answer that real quick.
是的,我會很快回答這個問題。
So the pieces of the PCF for the state of California that got turned on. or onetime in nature as that got lit up.
因此,加州的 PCF 部分功能已啟動。或曾經在大自然中被點亮過。
There are other things that happen in the public sector, which are more ongoing.
公共部門也發生著其他更持續的事情。
We haven't split that out.
我們還沒有把它分開。
We don't intend on doing that.
我們不打算這麼做。
And I think the color we gave around some of the headwinds that, that channel faces in 2025 with the disconnect is really what we want to say about that at this point.
我認為,我們對 2025 年該管道面臨的一些不利因素的描述正是我們現在想要表達的。
Sorry, what was your second question?
抱歉,您的第二個問題是什麼?
Nick Del Deo - Managing Director
Nick Del Deo - Managing Director
Okay.
好的。
I guess looking at the fiber deployment utilization table, if my math is right, the fiber miles used by enterprise channels was roughly flat from '22 to '25, but then you're expecting it to double from '25 to '28.
我想看看光纖部署利用率表,如果我的計算正確的話,企業通路使用的光纖英里數從 22 年到 25 年大致持平,但你預計從 25 年到 28 年它會翻一番。
So I'm just wondering what products are driving that doubling?
所以我只是想知道哪些產品推動了這個翻倍?
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Well, I think to start with in Kate's prepared remarks, we're seeing 100 gig and 400 gig waves growing at 50% in 2024.
嗯,我認為首先從凱特的準備好的發言開始,我們預計 2024 年 100G 和 400G 的波段將增長 50%。
And we talked about that and get color around that during the year because we shifted CapEx to support that.
我們在年內討論了這個問題並對此進行了了解,因為我們轉移了資本支出來支持這一點。
So we're at the very -- again, think about it back to the phases of AI that we've talked about.
所以我們正處於——再一次回想一下我們討論過的人工智慧的階段。
And the first phase is inference, which is where -- sorry, where the hyperscalers are building these networks for their own consumption to train the AI models.
第一階段是推理,超大規模企業正在建立這些網路供自己使用,以訓練人工智慧模型。
The second phase is inference, which is where large enterprise starts to use those models to run workloads.
第二階段是推理,大型企業開始使用這些模型來運行工作負載。
And so we're at the very beginnings of that, and we can see it in IP and waves.
我們正處於這一領域的起步階段,我們可以在 IP 和浪潮中看到這一點。
But I think you'll see more consumption of large enterprise connectivity because of the platform layer that Kate talked about because, ultimately, the value that we can bring to enterprise in the form of cost reduction isn't us reducing prices for down pipes.
但我認為,由於 Kate 談到的平台層,您會看到更多大型企業連接的消費,因為最終,我們可以以降低成本的形式為企業帶來的價值並不是我們降低下水管的價格。
It's us providing newer, cheaper, faster, more efficient and flexible ways of reaching their data.
我們提供更新、更便宜、更快捷、更有效率、更靈活的方式來取得他們的數據。
Operator
Operator
Greg Williams, TD Cowan.
格雷格威廉斯(Greg Williams),TD Cowan。
Greg Williams - Analyst
Greg Williams - Analyst
Actually, Chris, your last answer is a good segue into my question is, in your deep conversations you're having above and beyond the $8.5 billion pipeline, are you seeing any of the inference days starting to materialize?
實際上,克里斯,你的最後一個回答很好地引出了我的問題,在你們就 85 億美元管道進行的深入對話中,你是否看到任何推斷日開始實現?
Or are we still too early there?
或者說我們現在還太早?
Second question is on Deepseek.
第二個問題是關於Deepseek的。
I get the democratization of AI, which you see a larger TAM.
我了解人工智慧的民主化,你會看到它有更大的TAM。
But is there a near-term risk with massive scalable AI that would drive a temporary pause of the hyperscalers to rethink some of their plans?
但是,大規模可擴展人工智慧是否存在短期風險,導致超大規模企業暫時停下來重新考慮他們的一些計劃?
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We haven't seen a pause.
我們還沒有看到暫停。
In fact, are still in deep conversations.
事實上,雙方仍在深入對話。
We've talked about the pipeline that we're pursuing is predominantly comprised of new routes connecting data centers and we're deep in those conversations.
我們已經討論過,我們正在追求的管道主要由連接資料中心的新路線組成,我們正在深入討論這些主題。
And it's complex to design these kinds of networks, so it takes a bit more time, but they're still progressing with no sign of slowdown.
設計此類網路非常複雜,因此需要更多時間,但它們仍在進步,並且沒有放緩的跡象。
In fact, we have been asked by every single one of the major cloud companies that we've done a deal with, with no exception, if there's a possibility to accelerate the implementation of what they've purchased so far.
事實上,每一家與我們合作過的大型雲端運算公司都無一例外地詢問我們,是否有可能加快他們迄今為止購買的產品的實施。
With respect to the second phase in inference, I would say that it's early to start calling the ball on trends of exactly what's going to happen here.
關於推理的第二階段,我想說,現在開始預測接下來會發生什麼事還為時過早。
If anybody tells you they know, they don't.
如果有人告訴你他們知道,那他們就不知道。
What we are seeing is in some of the major industries, financial services, retail, healthcare, they're starting to -- they're the ones that are asking for the network upgrades.
我們看到,在一些主要行業,金融服務、零售、醫療保健等,他們開始要求網路升級。
And they're starting to use inference to transform their companies and they are recognizing the fact that they need something fundamentally different.
他們開始使用推理來改變他們的公司,並且他們認識到他們需要一些根本不同的東西。
And so that's kind of the trends that we can shine a light on so far.
這就是我們目前能夠闡明的趨勢。
As we learn more, we'll bring it to you.
當我們了解更多後,我們會將其分享給您。
I think it's really important.
我認為這真的很重要。
The discussion that I give you an overview on the multi-cloud AI-ready network architecture.
我在討論中向您概述了多雲 AI 就緒網路架構。
Every single one of these companies is moving data and workloads back and forth between clouds.
每一家公司都在雲端之間來回行動數據和工作負載。
And today, it's too complicated.
而今天,它太複雜了。
It's too slow.
太慢了。
It's too expensive, and it's not secure.
它太貴了,而且不安全。
And our fabric now that we're connected to all three clouds allows you to do that in a cost-effective, high-performance secure way.
現在,我們的結構已連接到所有三個雲,可讓您以經濟高效、高性能、安全的方式做到這一點。
And this is a net new capability that we're bringing through our platform and our fabric that no other company is doing.
這是我們透過我們的平台和結構帶來的全新能力,其他公司還沒有做到。
So we're really excited, and we think we'll continue to have a good view on what's happening during inference, and we'll keep you posted.
所以我們真的很興奮,我們認為我們將繼續密切關注推理過程中發生的事情,並隨時向您通報最新情況。
Operator
Operator
Frank Louthan, Raymond James.
法蘭克洛森、雷蒙詹姆斯。
Frank Louthan - Analyst
Frank Louthan - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Can you give us a little bit more color on the public sector for next year?
您能否向我們詳細介紹明年公共部門的情況?
I think you said it was going to pull back a bit.
我認為你說過它會回落一點。
Is any of that related to federal government cost cutting.
這些是否與聯邦政府削減成本有關?
And does that add any additional risk?
這是否會增添額外的風險?
Can you give us an update on the billing system collapsed and the other system changes that you're working on?
您能否向我們介紹一下計費系統崩潰以及您正在處理的其他系統變更的最新情況?
Where are you as far as completing those projects?
這些項目完成得怎麼樣了?
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure.
當然。
So as it relates to public sector, our sales rates aren't declining.
因此,就公共部門而言,我們的銷售率並沒有下降。
What's impacting revenue in 2025 is yes, I'll use the word, egregious rerate activity by a select few.
對 2025 年收入產生影響的是,是的,我會用這個詞,少數人的惡劣的重新評級活動。
I mean we're talking thousands of percents really over the last few years where customers, largely in the federal space and unfortunately some customers who rely critically on that technology for running their businesses, are being forced to migrate or turn off those switches.
我的意思是,過去幾年裡,我們談論的實際上是數千個百分點,客戶,主要是聯邦領域的客戶,不幸的是,一些嚴重依賴該技術來運營業務的客戶,被迫遷移或關閉這些開關。
And it's the right call for the customer, it's the right call for us.
這對客戶來說是正確的決定,對我們來說也是正確的決定。
So really, the big headwind there is that.
所以,真正的最大阻力就在於此。
As it relates to the IT work, we're making good progress.
就 IT 工作而言,我們正在取得良好進展。
Our first phase of our ERP should be complete I would say, probably early in the second quarter, and we're expecting the second phase, which first phase is really quote to cash, second phase is procure to pay, is later in the year.
我想說,我們的 ERP 第一階段應該會完成,大概在第二季初,我們預計第二階段(第一階段實際上是報價到現金,第二階段是採購到付款)將在今年稍後完成。
Now remember, what we're not doing, I want to be really clear about this.
現在請記住,我們沒有做什麼,我希望對此非常清楚。
We are not doing a big consolidation of order entry or billing systems.
我們不會對訂單輸入或計費系統進行大規模的合併。
What we're doing is as we consolidate networks and we turn on the ERP, we will over time roll off of old systems that support existing revenue.
我們所做的是,隨著我們整合網路並啟動 ERP,我們將隨著時間的推移逐步淘汰支援現有收入的舊系統。
As that revenue kind of retires up and all of the new revenue will be put into a new modernized system.
隨著這些收入的逐漸減少,所有新收入將投入一個新的現代化系統。
So as that grow bucket continues to grow, more and more of the product is on the future state.
因此,隨著成長桶的不斷增長,越來越多的產品處於未來狀態。
We're not doing any kind of a conversion.
我們不進行任何類型的轉換。
Operator
Operator
Sam McHugh, BNP Paribas.
法國巴黎銀行的 Sam McHugh。
Sam McHugh - Analyst
Sam McHugh - Analyst
On your intercity fiber mile vision, I think the 2028, 47 million-mile or 47 miles.
關於您對城際光纖里程的願景,我認為到 2028 年將達到 4700 萬英里或 47 英里。
Is that based on the announced PTF deals?
這是基於已宣布的 PTF 交易嗎?
Or would that require additional PCF deals and CapEx to kind of get to that vision, part one?
或者這需要額外的 PCF 交易和資本支出才能實現這一願景(第一部分)?
And then secondly, on the investment in new fiber routes.
其次,關於新光纖線路的投資。
Does that change your view on how many fiber homes in the mass market business you might be able to reach?
這是否會改變您對大眾市場業務中能夠覆蓋多少光纖家庭的看法?
And is that helping you in discussions with partners on basically being able to provide more backhaul for that only ventures?
這是否有助於您與合作夥伴進行討論,基本上能夠為這些企業提供更多的回程?
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So the 47 million miles just based on the business that we've already inked, it doesn't include any new deals.
因此,4700 萬英里僅基於我們已經簽署的業務,並不包括任何新交易。
So as we potentially do that, we might be updating the chart for you, hopefully sooner rather than later.
因此,當我們有可能這樣做時,我們可能會為您更新圖表,希望越快越好。
And I -- could you hit your fiber homes question again, please?
您能再說一下光纖入戶的問題嗎?
Sam McHugh - Analyst
Sam McHugh - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Sorry, I was just saying, as you build out more of the conduit and build new conduits, is that changing your view of kind of the terminal kind of build in mass market?
抱歉,我只是說,當你建造更多的管道並建造新的管道時,這是否會改變你對大眾市場終端建設的看法?
I think you talked to 6 million to 8 million locations in the past.
我認為您過去曾與 600 萬到 800 萬個地點進行過交談。
So can you do more with fiber miles?
那麼,您可以利用光纖里程做更多的事情嗎?
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We think about them separately.
我們分別思考它們。
Jim Breen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jim Breen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Operator, we have time for one more question.
接線員,我們還有時間再回答一個問題。
Operator
Operator
And everyone at this time, there are no further questions in the queue.
各位,目前,隊列中沒有其他問題。
That does conclude the conference call for today.
今天的電話會議就到此結束。
We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.
我們感謝您的參與並請您斷開線路。
Have a great day, everyone.
祝大家有個愉快的一天。