Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 2025 營收為 30.41 億美元,年減 8.7%;調整後 EBITDA 為 7.67 億美元,年減,主要受預期中的營收趨勢與一次性項目影響
    • 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 指引為 31-33 億美元,預期 EBITDA 於 2026 年轉正成長,CapEx 指引下修至 32-34 億美元,反映 AT&T 交易後資本強度下降
    • AT&T 交易完成後,債務降至 130 億美元以下,淨槓桿降至 3.8x,市場對公司財務結構優化及現金流改善反應正面
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 與 Cloud 2.0 驅動企業網路結構升級,Lumen 成為 AI 經濟的基礎網路供應商
      • PCF(Prefunded Capacity Fiber)業務持續擴大,累計簽約近 130 億美元,帶動現金流與資本回收
      • NaaS(Network-as-a-Service)業務快速成長,Q4 客戶數 QoQ 增 29%,布建 port 數增 31%,服務數增 26%
      • 成本優化計畫超標,2025 年底 run rate 節省超過 4 億美元,2026 年目標再提升至 7 億美元,推動 EBITDA 成長
    • 風險:
      • 產業結構轉型需時,企業客戶導入新網路架構步調保守,數位收入成長曲線具不確定性
      • PCF 建設期長,部分新簽約案需 3 年以上才能貢獻營收,短期內對總營收貢獻有限
      • 傳統業務(legacy)持續下滑,國際與批發收入年減幅度較大,需靠新業務彌補
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 總營收:Q4 2025 為 30.41 億美元,YoY -8.7%
    • 企業業務營收:Q4 2025 為 24.25 億美元,YoY -8.8%
    • 北美企業成長型產品營收占比:Q4 2025 達 52%,較 2024 年中 40% 升高
    • NaaS 客戶數:QoQ 增 29%
    • NaaS port 數:QoQ 增 31%
    • NaaS 服務數:QoQ 增 26%
    • PCF 營收:2025 年認列 1.16 億美元,Q4 認列 4100 萬美元
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 指引 31-33 億美元,預期全年轉正成長
    • 2026 年 CapEx 指引 32-34 億美元,較 2025 年大幅下降,反映消費者業務出售
    • 2026 年自由現金流預估 12-14 億美元,稅收預計為現金流入 3.5-4.5 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: PCF 新簽 25 億美元案與過去案型態有何不同?CapEx 與現金流時程如何?
      A: 新案結構與過去相同,主要利用現有網路管道,經濟效益一致。PCF 相關 CapEx 皆為預先資金,資本強度大幅下降,未來將於 Investor Day 提供更詳細現金流分拆。
    • Q: 2028 年業務營收成長指引是否有上修空間?NaaS 與 PCF TAM 擴大,數位採用加速,為何不調高預期?
      A: 產業結構轉型需時,客戶導入新網路步調保守,公司對市場吸收速度持審慎態度。PCF 新案對 2028 年有部分貢獻,但建設需時,數位業務成長曲線具不確定性,現階段維持中性預估。
    • Q: 2026 年 EBITDA 指引與成本結構細節?PCF 對 EBITDA 貢獻有無量化?
      A: 將於 Investor Day 及 8-K 公告提供更詳細分拆。2025 年底成本節省 run rate 已達 4 億美元,2026 年目標 7 億美元,現金流完全自給自足,未來有望進一步降槓桿或啟動庫藏股。
    • Q: PCF 營收認列現金流比例?NaaS 新客戶與 port 增長是否代表數位收入有上行空間?
      A: PCF 現金流約 90% 於建設前收取,10% 隨點亮認列營收。NaaS 採 land-and-expand 模式,客戶導入步調保守,現階段對數位收入維持審慎預估。
    • Q: 近期數據中心建設延遲,Lumen 如何確保 PCF 準時交付?客戶可否延後驗收?
      A: Lumen 具備供應鏈與人力規模優勢,與 Corning 等供應商有優先合約,並有績效獎金鼓勵加速交付。大多數客戶需求強勁,合約多要求如期交付,且現有網路 proximity 優勢明顯。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, everyone, and welcome to Lumen Technologies fourth-quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Tuesday, February 3, 2026. Your speakers for today are Kate Johnson, CEO; and Chris Stansbury, CFO.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Lumen Technologies 2025 年第四季及全年業績電話會議。(操作員說明)提醒:本次會議將於2026年2月3日星期二進行錄音。今天的演講嘉賓是執行長 Kate Johnson 和財務長 Chris Stansbury。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Breen, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁吉姆·布林。請繼續。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relation

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relation

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining Lumen Technologies on today's call. On the call today are Kate Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Stansbury, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, this conference may include forward-looking statements subject to certain risks and uncertainties.

    各位下午好,感謝各位參加今日由 Lumen Technologies 主持的電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長凱特·約翰遜,以及執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯·斯坦斯伯里。在會議開始之前,請注意,本次會議可能包含一些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到某些風險和不確定性的影響。

  • All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements and the risk factors in our SEC filings. We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures, which can be found in our earnings press release. In addition, certain metrics discussed today exclude costs for special items as detailed in our earnings materials, which can be found on our Investor Relations section of the Lumen website.

    所有前瞻性陳述都應與我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中列出的警示性聲明和風險因素一併考慮。我們將參考一些非GAAP財務指標,這些指標已與最可比較的GAAP指標進行了核對,詳情請參閱我們的獲利新聞稿。此外,今天討論的某些指標不包括特殊項目的成本,這些成本已在我們的收益資料中詳細說明,您可以在 Lumen 網站的投資者關係部分找到這些資料。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Kate.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給凱特。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Jim, and thanks, everybody, for joining the call. We had a great 2025, laying a solid foundation to execute our strategy to become the trusted network for AI. And of course, the big news is that yesterday, we closed the transaction with AT&T. This marks a defining moment for Lumen, completing our pivot to become a simpler, stronger, enterprise-focused technology infrastructure company.

    謝謝吉姆,也謝謝大家參加這次電話會議。我們在 2025 年取得了巨大成功,為執行我們的策略奠定了堅實的基礎,使我們成為人工智慧領域值得信賴的網路。當然,最大的新聞是,昨天我們完成了與 AT&T 的交易。這標誌著 Lumen 的一個決定性時刻,我們完成了轉型,成為一家更簡單、更強大、專注於企業的技術基礎設施公司。

  • The impact of the deal on our capital structure and financials is very significant. With the $4.8 billion in net proceeds and cash on hand, we've paid off all our super priority bonds in the last 24 hours. Recall that in the last month, we also paid off our second lien debt. Our total debt now stands at less than $13 billion, and our net leverage has been reduced by a full turn now below four-times.

    此交易對我們的資本結構和財務狀況影響非常重大。憑藉 48 億美元的淨收益和手頭現金,我們在過去 24 小時內償還了所有優先債券。請記住,上個月我們也還清了第二筆抵押貸款。我們目前的債務總額不到 130 億美元,淨槓桿率已大幅下降,目前低於 4 倍。

  • All of this capital markets activity has reduced our interest expense by roughly $500 million or nearly 45% down from 2025 levels. And lastly, this divestiture reduces our annual CapEx by over $1 billion, driving a significant reduction in capital intensity as we stop fiber-to-the-home builds and focus our capital on building a digital network services company. Closing this transaction marks a new day for Lumen.

    所有這些資本市場活動使我們的利息支出減少了約 5 億美元,比 2025 年的水準下降了近 45%。最後,此次資產剝離使我們的年度資本支出減少了 10 億美元以上,隨著我們停止光纖到戶建設並將資本集中用於建設數位網路服務公司,資本密集度將大幅降低。完成這筆交易標誌著 Lumen 開啟了新的一天。

  • We're focused on serving public and private enterprises as the trusted network for AI. And our 2025 results clearly demonstrate the power of this focus. We reported strong 2025 financial results for revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow. Our business revenue mix continues to improve with fourth-quarter North American enterprise revenue and Grow revenue totaling 52%, eclipsing nurture and harvest revenues.

    我們致力於成為公共和私營企業值得信賴的人工智慧網路。我們2025年的成果清楚地顯示了這種聚焦方式的力量。我們公佈了2025年強勁的財務業績,包括營收、EBITDA和自由現金流。我們的業務收入結構持續改善,第四季度北美企業收入和成長收入合計達到 52%,超過了培育和收穫收入。

  • We continue to expect this trend to inflect our business revenue back to growth in 2028. EBITDA was at the high end of our guidance range, which included the RDOF giveback in 2Q, and free cash flow was solid even without the $400 million tax refund that is now expected to come in the first half of 2026. We exceeded our increased target for cost reduction, ending the year at over $400 million in run rate savings.

    我們仍然預計這一趨勢將在 2028 年使我們的業務收入恢復成長。EBITDA 處於我們預期範圍的高端,其中包括第二季度的 RDOF 返還,即使沒有預計將於 2026 年上半年到帳的 4 億美元退稅,自由現金流也很穩健。我們超額完成了提高後的成本削減目標,在年底實現了超過 4 億美元的年度節省。

  • Exiting 2026, we're targeting another $300 million of cost out, totaling $700 million run rate savings, which positions us to hit our three-year $1 billion cost-out target as well as our expected EBITDA growth this year as previously guided. Also noteworthy, we had a banner performance in PCF sales in the fourth-quarter. You may recall that just over 18-months ago, we announced our first $5.5 billion in PCF deals with a goal of reaching $12 billion over time.

    到 2026 年底,我們的目標是再削減 3 億美元的成本,累計節省 7 億美元,這將使我們能夠實現三年內削減 10 億美元成本的目標,以及今年預期的 EBITDA 增長,正如之前所預期的那樣。值得一提的是,我們在第四季的PCF銷售業績也取得了優異成績。您可能還記得,就在 18 個月前,我們宣布了首批 55 億美元的 PCF 交易,目標是最終達到 120 億美元。

  • As of today, we are now at nearly $13 billion with more deals in the pipeline. And we had another strong quarter of growth in our NaaS business. Rising ports per customer show that enterprises are starting to standardize on the Lumen Fabric as their programmable network control plane for Cloud 2.0. Each additional port expands our platform economics by unlocking higher-margin digital services revenue, accelerating cloud and AI on-ramp adoption and deepening ecosystem network effects for Lumen and partner-delivered services.

    截至今日,我們的交易金額已接近 130 億美元,並且還有更多交易正在洽談中。我們的NaaS業務又迎來了一個強勁的成長季度。每個客戶連接埠數量的增加表明,企業開始將 Lumen Fabric 作為其雲端 2.0 的可編程網路控制平面作為標準。每個額外的連接埠都透過釋放更高利潤的數位服務收入來擴大我們的平台經濟效益,加速雲端和 AI 的快速普及,並加深 Lumen 和合作夥伴提供的服務的生態系統網路效應。

  • Lastly, we added two amazing new executives to our team. Jim Fowler, our new Chief Technology and Product Officer, who is uniquely suited to help us execute our vision. And Jeff Sharritts, our new Chief Revenue Officer, who is uniquely suited to help us drive commercial scale. We're proud of the team we've built in all of their accomplishments throughout 2025, and we're pleased to see both the credit and equity markets rewarding the Lumen team for all of that work.

    最後,我們團隊新增了兩位非常優秀的管理階層。Jim Fowler,我們新任首席技術和產品官,他非常適合幫助我們實現願景。還有 Jeff Sharritts,我們新任首席營收官,他非常適合幫助我們商業規模化。我們為我們組建的團隊在 2025 年取得的所有成就感到自豪,我們也很高興看到信貸市場和股票市場都對 Lumen 團隊的所有工作給予了獎勵。

  • Looking ahead to '26 and beyond, I'd like to reiterate our belief that there's an urgent need for structural change in network architectures and business models to more closely align with customer needs in a multi-cloud AI-first world. This is the investment thesis behind our three-pillar strategy as we build the backbone for AI, cloudify and identify telecom and expand our connected ecosystem.

    展望 2026 年及以後,我想重申我們的觀點,在多雲 AI 優先的世界中,網路架構和商業模式迫切需要進行結構性變革,以更緊密地滿足客戶需求。這是我們三大支柱策略背後的投資理念,我們將建構人工智慧的骨幹網,實現雲端化,識別電信領域,並擴展我們的互聯生態系統。

  • I'll briefly touch on each strategic imperative, starting with the backbone work. We successfully reached our 2025 goal of implementing 17 million intercity fiber miles. The roughly $2.5 billion of new PCF deals that we inked in Q4 will raise our total network expansion to a whopping 58 million fiber miles in 2031, while simultaneously expanding our capacity for enterprise customers.

    我將簡要介紹每一項策略要務,先從基礎性工作開始。我們已成功實現 2025 年鋪設 1,700 萬英里城際光纖的目標。我們在第四季度簽署的約 25 億美元的新 PCF 協議將使我們的網路總擴展量在 2031 年達到驚人的 5,800 萬英里光纖,同時擴大我們為企業客戶提供的服務能力。

  • But as we've shared, our physical expansion is about more than just the number of fiber miles. It's also about giving customers bandwidth expansion, lightning fast implementation timelines, rich data center interconnect and investment in geographies where they need it most. And as we all know, every fiber mile isn't created equal.

    但正如我們之前所說,我們的物理擴張不僅僅是光纖里程數的問題。它還旨在為客戶提供頻寬擴展、閃電般的快速實施時間表、豐富的資料中心互連以及在他們最需要的地區進行投資。我們都知道,每一英里的光纖品質都不一樣。

  • That's why we're investing significantly in three major network upgrades, building 400-gig rapid route waves across 36 routes with more on the way, enabling 400-gig services for data centers across key markets and focusing on metro expansion so that we connect the most needed routes, data centers and cities across America.

    因此,我們正在大力投資三大網路升級項目,在 36 條線路上建造 400G 快速路由波段(未來還將建造更多線路),為主要市場的資料中心提供 400G 服務,並專注於城域網路擴展,以便連接美國各地最需要的線路、資料中心和城市。

  • To support this work, we've expanded our partnership with Corning, ensuring we have priority access to the newest state-of-the-art fiber technology, delivering the AI backbone for today's and tomorrow's most important customers. In a world of Cloud 2.0, the largest tech companies are choosing Lumen to help construct the supply side of the AI economy, and that's because of our physical network prowess.

    為了支持這項工作,我們擴大了與康寧公司的合作關係,確保我們能夠優先獲得最新的尖端光纖技術,為當今和未來最重要的客戶提供人工智慧骨幹網路。在雲端 2.0 時代,最大的科技公司選擇 Lumen 來幫助建立人工智慧經濟的供應端,這是因為我們擁有強大的實體網路實力。

  • Our network size, scale and quality position us to provide superior performance on three key metrics emerging in the AI race. Fastest time to first token, GPU idle time and interconnect latency. What's more, as data centers begin to decentralize to accommodate energy supply constraints, our vast network provides valuable proximity.

    我們的網路規模、範圍和品質使我們能夠在人工智慧競賽中湧現的三個關鍵指標上提供卓越的效能。首次取得令牌的最快時間、GPU空閒時間和互連延遲。此外,隨著資料中心開始分散化以適應能源供應限制,我們龐大的網路提供了寶貴的地理位置優勢。

  • Together, our capital investments in PCF deals create a strategic competitive advantage, and we're expanding and upgrading our network alongside the most influential companies in the AI race, making it easier for enterprises to consume AI. And speaking of the consumption side of the economy, this is where businesses are recognizing that yesterday's network doesn't support AI and Cloud 2.0.

    我們共同對 PCF 交易進行資本投資,從而創造了戰略競爭優勢,我們正在與人工智慧領域最具影響力的公司一起擴展和升級我們的網絡,使企業更容易使用人工智慧。說到經濟的消費面,企業正在意識到,昨天的網路無法支援人工智慧和雲端 2.0。

  • They need quick, secure, effortless on-demand services to move their data from anywhere to anywhere in real time. That's why Lumen is cloudifying and identifying the network. Think of it as building a programmable network platform that finally puts networking on par with compute and storage in the world of cloud. And our customers love it, as shown by another great quarter of adoption metrics.

    他們需要快速、安全、便捷的隨選服務,以便即時地將資料從任何地方傳輸到任何地方。這就是 Lumen 對網路進行雲端化和識別的原因。你可以把它想像成建構一個可程式化的網路平台,最終讓網路在雲端運算領域與運算和儲存並駕齊驅。我們的客戶非常喜歡它,這從另一個季度出色的採用率指標中可見一斑。

  • The number of active customers grew by 29% quarter-over-quarter. The number of NaaS fabric ports deployed grew 31% and the number of services sold grew 26% in that same period. Recall that in October, we announced NaaS internet on-demand, off-net. And while it's still early, we believe off-net growth significantly expands our addressable market for NaaS services.

    活躍用戶數量較上季成長 29%。同期,NaaS 架構連接埠部署數量增加了 31%,服務銷售數量增加了 26%。回想一下,我們在 10 月宣布了 NaaS 按需互聯網服務,無需聯網即可使用。雖然現在下結論還為時過早,但我們相信,非網內成長將顯著擴大我們面向網路即服務 (NaaS) 的目標市場。

  • Great brands across industries are adopting this new capability with more than 900 off-net ports sold so far. The investments we're making in building a programmable network are driving significant growth in high-value digital revenues, which we believe will ultimately drive higher return for Lumen investors. And we'll share more on this and Project Berkeley at Investor Day.

    各行各業的知名品牌都在採用這項新功能,迄今已售出超過 900 個非網埠。我們在建立可編程網路方面的投資正在推動高價值數位收入的顯著成長,我們相信這最終將為 Lumen 投資者帶來更高的回報。我們將在投資者日上分享更多關於該項目和伯克利項目的資訊。

  • Finally, let's talk about the progress we're making since launching the Lumen connected ecosystem six months ago. The team is fully staffed and building a commercial flywheel to marry AI-ready Lumen validated designs with partner cloud solutions, enhancing joint value props and accelerating our collective time to value for customers.

    最後,讓我們來談談自六個月前推出 Lumen 互聯生態系統以來我們取得的進展。團隊人員配備齊全,正在建造一個商業飛輪,將支援人工智慧的 Lumen 驗證設計與合作夥伴的雲端解決方案相結合,從而增強聯合價值主張,並加快我們為客戶創造價值的集體速度。

  • Not only do these partnerships give us greater commercial reach, they give us a seat at the table where business decisions are being made. Instead of networking being purchased by infrastructure procurement teams as an afterthought, our Lumen team is included in the entire life cycle of the sale, elevating awareness of the critical importance of network and differentiating our company in the marketplace.

    這些合作關係不僅讓我們擁有了更廣闊的商業影響力,也讓我們在商業決策的製定過程中擁有了一席之地。與基礎設施採購團隊事後才考慮網路不同,我們的 Lumen 團隊參與了銷售的整個生命週期,提高了人們對網路重要性的認識,使我們公司在市場上脫穎而出。

  • We've signed 16 connected ecosystem partnerships to date, yielding more than 180 potential sales opportunities so far. Recently, we've made a slew of announcements, including at AWS re:Invent, we shared a gated preview for AWS Interconnect to help AI workloads dynamically scale bandwidth while providing high availability and security.

    迄今為止,我們已簽署了 16 項互聯生態系統合作夥伴關係,產生了超過 180 個潛在銷售機會。最近,我們發布了一系列公告,包括在 AWS re:Invent 大會上,我們分享了 AWS Interconnect 的封閉預覽版,以協助 AI 工作負載動態擴展頻寬,同時提供高可用性和安全性。

  • At Microsoft Inspire, we announced Lumen Defender with Microsoft Sentinel. And at MeterUp, we launched our joint network management offering to give customers preferred connectivity solutions and faster time to value. With every connected ecosystem partner, we're working to deliver scenarios and outcomes that transcend legacy telco capabilities.

    在微軟 Inspire 大會上,我們發布了 Lumen Defender 與 Microsoft Sentinel 的整合版本。在 MeterUp,我們推出了聯合網路管理產品,旨在為客戶提供更優質的連接解決方案,並加快價值實現速度。我們正與每個互聯生態系統合作夥伴攜手,努力實現超越傳統電信能力的各種場景和成果。

  • We're uniquely positioned to do this because of our API-driven programmable network and digital services portfolio, all of which enable a new world of customer-obsessed, partner-delivered technology solutions. All right. To wrap it up, it's a new day for this company. Lumen is separating itself from the traditional telecom pack. It's not a story about share take or price protection in a declining legacy market.

    我們擁有獨特的優勢來實現這一目標,因為我們擁有 API 驅動的可編程網路和數位服務組合,所有這些都為以客戶為中心、合作夥伴交付的技術解決方案開闢了新天地。好的。總之,對這家公司來說,今天是個嶄新的一天。Lumen正在與傳統電信業者劃清界線。這不是關於在日漸衰落的傳統市場中進行股份收購或價格保護的故事。

  • This is about taking a once commoditized asset, innovating new architectures and capabilities and commercializing it through a modern business model so that enterprises can focus on using AI to reimagine their workflows and business models during the biggest technology shift in history. It's a strategy that for several quarters has helped us slow overall revenue decline more effectively than our peers.

    這指的是將曾經商品化的資產進行創新,開發新的架構和功能,並透過現代商業模式將其商業化,從而使企業能夠在歷史上最大的技術變革時期,專注於利用人工智慧來重新構想其工作流程和商業模式。在過去的幾個季度裡,這項策略幫助我們比同業更有效地減緩了整體營收下滑的趨勢。

  • And as our strategic revenues eclipse the size of our declining legacy revenue, it's a strategy that we expect will ultimately deliver new revenue streams that are both margin accretive and require less capital investment, ultimately improving overall margins and free cash flow even further.

    隨著我們的策略收入超過不斷下降的傳統收入規模,我們預期這項策略最終將帶來新的收入來源,這些收入來源既能提高利潤率,又能減少資本投資,最終將進一步提高整體利潤率和自由現金流。

  • I'll hand it over to Chris to talk more about our financial performance and guidance.

    接下來我將把發言權交給克里斯,讓他進一步談談我們的財務表現和未來展望。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Kate. As Kate said, since the debt restructuring in the spring of 2024, we set out to achieve four major financial goals. Return free cash flow to growth, fix our capital structure, inflect adjusted EBITDA to growth in 2026 and return to business revenue growth in 2028 and total revenue growth in 2029. In 2025, our team executed numerous transactions and reached key milestones along our path to achieving these goals in Lumen's overall financial transformation.

    謝謝你,凱特。正如凱特所說,自 2024 年春季債務重組以來,我們著手實現四個主要的財務目標。恢復自由現金流以促進成長,改善資本結構,在 2026 年實現調整後 EBITDA 的成長,並在 2028 年恢復業務收入成長,在 2029 年實現總收入成長。2025年,我們的團隊執行了多項交易,並在Lumen整體財務轉型過程中實現了這些目標的關鍵里程碑。

  • Over the past 12 months, we signed almost $4.5 billion in new PCF deals, taking the total amount of signed deals to nearly $13 billion. These deals provide us with cash to strengthen the balance sheet and invest in growth, cementing our place as the trusted network for AI and highlighting the value of our assets to customers in a multi-cloud AI world.

    過去 12 個月,我們簽署了近 45 億美元的新 PCF 協議,使已簽署協議的總額接近 130 億美元。這些交易為我們提供了現金,以增強資產負債表並投資於成長,鞏固了我們作為人工智慧領域值得信賴的網路的地位,並在多雲人工智慧世界中凸顯了我們資產對客戶的價值。

  • We reached over $400 million in run rate cost reductions on track for $1 billion exiting 2027. We launched Phase 1 of our new ERP system, streamlining our accounting processes and reducing long-standing systems complexity. And we continue to improve our revenue mix with 52% of North American enterprise revenue now coming from growth products, up from the mid-40% range in 2024, which supports our confidence in a return to business revenue growth in 2028.

    我們已實現超過 4 億美元的年度成本削減,預計在 2027 年底前實現 10 億美元的目標。我們啟動了新的ERP系統第一階段,簡化了會計流程,降低了長期存在的系統複雜性。我們持續改善收入結構,目前北美企業收入的 52% 來自成長型產品,高於 2024 年的 40% 左右,這增強了我們對 2028 年業務收入恢復成長的信心。

  • We successfully executed seven debt refinancing transactions with a total value of over $11 billion, extending and smoothing our maturity profile while materially reducing our annual interest expense by more than $180 million. Through these transactions, we also simplified our capital structure. We eliminated the second lien layer at Level 3 and reduced the number of debt tranches outstanding by 10.

    我們成功完成了七筆債務再融資交易,總價值超過 110 億美元,延長並平滑了我們的到期日,同時大幅減少了我們每年的利息支出超過 1.8 億美元。透過這些交易,我們也簡化了資本結構。我們在第三層取消了第二留置權層,並將未償債務層數減少了 10 層。

  • And it's 16% when you include the recent super priority paydown, almost a 40% reduction. These disciplined actions helped to materially improve our financial flexibility. And today, our capital structure is no longer a headwind. It's a position of strength. And finally, yesterday, we announced the close of our fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T for $5.75 billion.

    如果算上最近的優先還款,降幅為 16%,幾乎減少了 40%。這些有紀律的措施有助於切實提高我們的財務靈活性。如今,我們的資本結構不再是阻礙因素。這是優勢地位。最後,昨天我們宣布以 57.5 億美元的價格將光纖到戶業務出售給 AT&T。

  • The net proceeds and cash on hand were used to pay down the full $4.8 billion of super priority bonds, which reduces annual cash interest expense by an additional $300 million. In total, annual interest expense has been reduced by nearly $0.5 billion in the last 12-months. I want to give a little more detail on the debt transactions because we're particularly proud of what we've accomplished and at levels no one outside of Lumen, investors, analysts, advisers and the broader media thought was possible over such a short period of time.

    淨收益和手頭現金用於償還全部 48 億美元的超級優先債券,從而每年減少 3 億美元的現金利息支出。過去 12 個月,年度利息支出總計減少了近 5 億美元。我想更詳細地介紹一下債務交易,因為我們對所取得的成就感到特別自豪,而且在如此短的時間內取得這樣的成就,是 Lumen 以外的任何人、投資者、分析師、顧問和更廣泛的媒體都認為不可能的。

  • We have that confidence in ourselves, and we have delivered. After the AT&T close, we now have under $13 billion in debt, more than $5 billion retired since January 1 of '25. These actions have reduced our overall leverage to 3.8 times trailing 12-months adjusted EBITDA, and we're not done. There are just additional steps that we can and will take to improve and simplify our balance sheet and overall capital structure.

    我們對自己充滿信心,而且我們也證明了這一點。在完成對 AT&T 的收購後,我們現在的債務不到 130 億美元,自 2025 年 1 月 1 日以來已償還超過 50 億美元。這些措施已將我們的整體槓桿率降低至過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的 3.8 倍,而且我們還沒有完成。我們也可以採取一些額外的措施來改善和簡化我們的資產負債表和整體資本結構。

  • We'll share more details at our Investor Day on February 25. Our team's hard work has delivered impressive results and created opportunities for Lumen's future through a transformed financial profile. This is what playing to win looks like. Now turning to results. fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA were in line with our expectations and updated 2025 guidance.

    我們將在2月25日的投資者日上分享更多細節。我們團隊的辛勤工作取得了令人矚目的成果,並透過財務狀況的轉變,為 Lumen 的未來創造了機會。這就是全力以赴爭取勝利的樣子。現在來看業績。第四季營收和調整後EBITDA均符合我們的預期,並更新了2025年業績指引。

  • As we've mentioned at recent investor conferences, this quarter, we also introduced a new reporting view, strategic and legacy, to better reflect how we run the business. It increases transparency by separating the growth engines we're investing in from the legacy revenues we're actively managing for cash and simplification.

    正如我們在最近的投資者會議上提到的那樣,本季度,我們還引入了新的報告視圖,即策略和傳統視圖,以更好地反映我們經營業務的方式。它透過將我們正在投資的成長引擎與我們正在積極管理的傳統收入(用於現金流和簡化流程)分開,提高了透明度。

  • Lumen's transition from grow, nurture and harvest to strategic and legacy revenue segmentation reflects our commitment to driving sustainable growth by focusing investment and innovation on our most scalable future-oriented businesses. By simplifying our financial reporting and aligning with our enterprise-first strategy, we're better positioned to accelerate margin expansion and deliver long-term value.

    Lumen 從發展、培育和收穫到策略和傳統收入細分的轉變,體現了我們致力於透過專注於最具可擴展性的未來導向業務的投資和創新來推動永續成長的承諾。透過簡化財務報告並與我們以企業為先的策略保持一致,我們能夠更好地加速利潤率擴張並創造長期價值。

  • Now let's move to the discussion of financial results for the fourth-quarter and full year. Total reported revenue declined 8.7% to $3.041 billion. Business segment revenue declined 8.8% to $2.425 billion, which includes over 350 basis points of anticipated downward impact from onetime dark fiber and elevated public sector harvest revenue growth in the fourth-quarter of 2024.

    現在我們來討論一下第四季和全年的財務表現。總報告收入下降 8.7% 至 30.41 億美元。業務部門營收下降 8.8% 至 24.25 億美元,其中包括 2024 年第四季一次性暗光纖和公共部門收割營收成長帶來的超過 350 個基點的預期下行影響。

  • Mass markets segment revenue declined 7.9% to $616 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $767 million with a 25.2% margin and free cash flow was negative $765 million. Total business grow revenue was roughly flat year-over-year in the quarter, as expected and previously communicated, impacted by those onetime revenue items in the fourth-quarter of 2024.

    大眾市場業務收入下降7.9%,至6.16億美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 7.67 億美元,利潤率為 25.2%,自由現金流為負 7.65 億美元。正如預期和先前溝通的那樣,本季總業務成長收入與去年同期基本持平,受到 2024 年第四季一次性收入項目的影響。

  • For the fourth-quarter and full year 2025, we recognized revenue of roughly $41 million and $116 million, respectively, associated with the nearly $13 billion in PCF deals we've announced to date. These prefunded deals have both strategic and financial impacts for Lumen, allowing us to expand our capacity and build alongside the largest technology companies while also providing capital to fully fund our business plan.

    2025 年第四季和全年,我們分別確認了約 4,100 萬美元和 1.16 億美元的收入,這與我們迄今為止宣布的近 130 億美元的 PCF 交易有關。這些預先融資的交易對 Lumen 具有策略和財務上的影響,使我們能夠擴大產能,與最大的科技公司並肩發展,同時提供資金來全面資助我們的商業計劃。

  • We will provide a longer view of the PCF business at our Investor Day. Within North American enterprise channels, excluding wholesale, international and other, revenue declined approximately 8.9%. North America enterprise revenue increased slightly, driven by continued strength in IP. We saw expected and typical declines in nurture and harvest.

    我們將在投資者日上對 PCF 業務進行更深入的展望。在北美企業通路中(不包括批發、國際和其他通路),收入下降了約 8.9%。受知識產權業務持續強勁的推動,北美企業收入略有成長。我們看到培育和收穫方面都出現了預期的、典型的下降。

  • And overall, including wholesale, the North American business revenue declined 8.6%. Wholesale revenue declined approximately 7.8% year-over-year, in line with our expectations. And international and other revenue declined 16.3% or $15 million, driven primarily by managed services, VPN and voice declines. Now turning to adjusted EBITDA.

    總體而言,包括批發業務在內,北美業務收入下降了 8.6%。批發收入年減約 7.8%,符合我們的預期。國際和其他收入下降了 16.3%,即 1500 萬美元,主要原因是託管服務、VPN 和語音業務的下滑。現在來看調整後的 EBITDA。

  • For the fourth-quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, was $767 million compared to approximately $1.052 billion in the year ago quarter. Year-over-year declines were largely impacted by expected revenue trends, including those onetime revenue items in the fourth-quarter of '24, increased health care costs as well as increasing cloud migration costs that we've talked about in previous quarters.

    2025 年第四季度,經調整的 EBITDA(不含特殊項目)為 7.67 億美元,去年同期約為 10.52 億美元。年比下降主要受預期收入趨勢的影響,包括 2024 年第四季度的一次性收入項目、醫療保健成本增加以及我們在前幾個季度討論過的雲端遷移成本增加。

  • Special items impacting adjusted EBITDA totaled $280 million. This includes severance, transaction and separation costs and our modernization and simplification initiatives. Lastly, capital expenditures were approximately $1.6 billion in the quarter, as we expected and in line with our full year guidance. Free cash flow, excluding special items, was negative $765 million.

    影響調整後 EBITDA 的特殊項目總計 2.8 億美元。這包括遣散費、交易費和離職補償金,以及我們的現代化和簡化措施。最後,本季資本支出約為 16 億美元,符合我們的預期,也與我們的全年指引一致。不計特殊項目,自由現金流為負7.65億美元。

  • As we discussed previously, fourth-quarter free cash flow was negatively impacted by a delay in a $400 million tax refund, which we now expect to receive in the first half of 2026. Now moving on to our financial outlook for the full year 2026, which includes the impact of yesterday's February 2 close of the AT&T transaction, we estimate adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion.

    正如我們之前討論的那樣,由於 4 億美元的退稅款項延遲到賬,第四季度自由現金流受到了負面影響,我們現在預計將在 2026 年上半年收到這筆款項。現在我們來看看 2026 年全年的財務展望,其中包括昨天 2 月 2 日 AT&T 交易完成的影響,我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 31 億美元至 33 億美元之間。

  • We expect adjusted EBITDA to inflect to growth in 2026. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance includes organic business revenue declines roughly 75 basis points better than 2025 as we continue to focus investment on our growth products and manage our legacy portfolio for cash. Excluding -- excluded from the guidance above is roughly $400 million in transformation costs associated with the multiyear goal of reducing expenses by $1 billion by year-end 2027.

    我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2026 年實現成長。我們調整後的 EBITDA 預期包括有機業務收入下降,比 2025 年的預期好約 75 個基點,因為我們將繼續專注於投資成長型產品並管理我們的傳統業務組合以獲取現金。上述指導意見不包括與多年目標相關的約 4 億美元的轉型成本,該目標旨在到 2027 年底減少 10 億美元的支出。

  • As Kate mentioned, for year-end 2026, we now target a $700 million run rate associated with our modernization and simplification program. Now moving to capital spending and our other outlook metrics. For the full year 2026, we expect total capital expenditures in the range of $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion. The majority of the reduction in CapEx from 2025 to 2026 is associated with the sale of our fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T.

    正如凱特所提到的,到 2026 年底,我們的目標是實現與現代化和簡化計畫相關的 7 億美元運行率。接下來我們將討論資本支出和其他展望指標。預計 2026 年全年資本支出總額將在 32 億至 34 億美元之間。2025 年至 2026 年資本支出減少的大部分與我們將光纖到戶業務出售給 AT&T 有關。

  • As a reminder, CapEx spent on the assets held for sale from January 1 until close was reimbursed at close. We estimate the CapEx associated with the nearly $13 billion in PCF deals to be approximately $1 billion. The majority of the remaining CapEx is associated with our core enterprise business. We expect to generate free cash flow in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion for the full year 2026.

    再次提醒,從 1 月 1 日到交易完成期間用於出售資產的資本支出已在交易完成時予以償還。我們估計與近 130 億美元的 PCF 交易相關的資本支出約為 10 億美元。剩餘的大部分資本支出與我們的核心企業業務相關。我們預計 2026 年全年自由現金流將在 12 億至 14 億美元之間。

  • Additionally, we estimate net cash interest expense to be $650 million to $750 million, a reduction of over $550 million at the midpoint versus 2025. Taxes are expected to be a cash inflow of $350 million to $450 million in 2026, inclusive of the aforementioned tax refund, but exclusive of divestiture taxes. In terms of other special items for 2026, we continue to expect dedicated costs to support transaction services for the divestitures.

    此外,我們預計淨現金利息支出為 6.5 億美元至 7.5 億美元,與 2025 年相比,中位數將減少 5.5 億美元以上。預計 2026 年稅收將帶來 3.5 億美元至 4.5 億美元的現金流入,其中包括上述退稅,但不包括資產剝離稅。至於 2026 年的其他特殊項目,我們預計仍將有專款用於支援資產剝離的交易服務。

  • The reimbursement for these services will be in other income with no material net impact to our cash flow. Additionally, special items includes costs associated with Lumen's $1 billion in project takeout by the year-end of 2027. As we continue our journey in disrupting enterprise networking, we'll also evolve how we guide, measure and report our performance, especially around PCF impacts to our financials because it's a meaningful contributor, but not the whole story.

    這些服務的補償將計入其他收入,不會對我們的現金流產生實質的淨影響。此外,特殊項目還包括 Lumen 在 2027 年底前完成 10 億美元專案收購的相關成本。隨著我們不斷顛覆企業網絡,我們也將改善指導、衡量和報告績效的方式,特別是 PCF 對我們財務狀況的影響,因為它是一個重要的貢獻因素,但並非全部。

  • While the growth in PCF revenue certainly helps, it does not fully reflect the improvements you'll see in our core enterprise business over the next several quarters. We'll share more specific details at our upcoming Investor Day. Now at the beginning of my remarks, I laid out four goals we set for ourselves 24 months ago. We've already successfully achieved the first two, free cash flow growth and fixing the capital structure and expect to deliver the third adjusted EBITDA inflection in 2026, and remain on track to the fourth, returning business revenue to growth in 2028.

    雖然個人電腦業務收入的成長確實有所幫助,但這並不能完全反映出未來幾季我們核心企業業務的改善。我們將在即將舉行的投資者日上分享更多具體細節。在發言伊始,我列出了我們24個月前為自己設定的四個目標。我們已經成功實現了前兩個目標,即自由現金流成長和資本結構調整,預計將在 2026 年實現第三個調整後 EBITDA 拐點,並有望在 2028 年實現第四個目標,即業務收入恢復成長。

  • We've achieved the goals we've communicated to investors over the past year, and we continue to see multiple paths to reaching business revenue growth inflection in 2028. We will continue to provide investors with adoption metrics and other proof points along the way to increase confidence in our ability to reach that goal.

    過去一年,我們已經實現了向投資者傳達的目標,我們繼續看到多種途徑可以在 2028 年實現業務收入成長轉折點。我們將繼續向投資者提供採用率指標和其他證明要點,以增強他們對我們實現該目標的能力的信心。

  • We're pleased with our performance in 2025 as we made great strides across all three layers of the business: physical, digital and ecosystem, and the early results for our digital growth engine are encouraging. Over the next few years, our cost structure optimization and increasing digital revenue are expected to help improve margins and free cash flow, reduce our capital intensity, further lower our leverage and borrowing costs and continue to increase our financial flexibility to invest in Lumen's growth.

    我們對 2025 年的業績感到滿意,因為我們在業務的三個層面(實體、數位和生態系統)都取得了長足進步,而且我們數位成長引擎的早期成果令人鼓舞。在接下來的幾年裡,我們透過優化成本結構和增加數位收入,有望提高利潤率和自由現金流,降低資本密集度,進一步降低槓桿率和借貸成本,並繼續提高財務靈活性,從而投資於 Lumen 的成長。

  • The future is bright. We look forward to providing you with more details on our long-range plan in a few weeks. And with that, I'll hand it back to Kate before we move to Q&A.

    未來一片光明。我們期待在幾週後向您提供更多關於我們長期計劃的細節。接下來,在進入問答環節之前,我會把麥克風交還給凱特。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Chris. Before we open it up for questions, I just want to say how proud we are of all the luminaries who continue to execute our strategy to build the world's trusted network for AI. Whether you're doing a PCF deal, driving NaaS adoption, helping us do a major strategic divestiture, it takes every single function operating as one team from HR to operations to product, IT and engineering to marketing and sales and to finance and legal, all of you matter deeply. And it's because of your work that Lumen's future is so very bright.

    謝謝你,克里斯。在正式開始提問之前,我只想表達我們對所有傑出人士的自豪之情,他們不斷執行我們的策略,致力於建立全球值得信賴的人工智慧網路。無論你是在進行 PCF 交易、推動 NaaS 採用,還是幫助我們進行重大策略剝離,都需要從人力資源到營運、產品、IT 和工程、行銷和銷售、財務和法律等各個職能部門像一個團隊一樣運作,你們每個人都至關重要。正因為有了你的努力,Lumen 的未來才如此光明。

  • Moderator, we'll open it up for questions now.

    主持人,現在開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Michael Rollins, Citi.

    (操作說明)Michael Rollins,花旗銀行。

  • Michael Rollins - Analyst

    Michael Rollins - Analyst

  • I wanted to focus on the PCF deals announced today. So with the $2.5 billion in this tranche, can you share with us how that business may be similar or different to the first $1 billion that you announced especially with respect to margins and returns? And then secondly, can you just help frame the timing of CapEx investments and cash receipts, just given now the quantum of these deals.

    我想重點談談今天宣布的PCF交易。那麼,對於這筆 25 億美元的投資,您能否與我們分享一下,這項業務與您之前宣布的首筆 10 億美元投資有何相似之處或不同之處,尤其是在利潤率和回報方面?其次,鑑於目前這些交易的規模,您能否幫忙確定資本支出投資和現金收入的時間安排?

  • Maybe relative to the CapEx that you spent over the last couple of years, it would seem like there's more to go. So just curious if you could frame how that's going to pace out over the next few years.

    或許相對於過去幾年投入的資本支出而言,似乎還有更多的事情要做。所以,我很好奇您能否概述一下未來幾年內的發展節奏。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Thanks, Mike. So, the recent deals, the $2.5 billion or so, the structure is really the same as what we've experienced to date because we're doing these deals on existing network conduit, so they don't have new routes. So the economic profile is very similar. On your follow-up question, we will get into that detail at Investor Day. We're going to give you visibility into the PCF versus non-PCF impact on cash flows.

    是的。謝謝你,麥克。所以,最近達成的這筆交易,金額約為 25 億美元,其結構實際上與我們迄今為止所經歷的相同,因為這些交易都是在現有的網路管道上進行的,所以它們沒有新的路線。因此,兩國的經濟狀況非常相似。關於您的後續問題,我們將在投資者日上詳細討論。我們將向您展示 PCF 與非 PCF 對現金流量的影響。

  • I think the thing that I would definitely share with everyone today, though, is if you think about our capital intensity, I'm going to speak in rough numbers because it's easier. $4 billion in CapEx last year, $1 billion of that went away with the sale of the consumer business without much of a loss in EBITDA. So, in effect, we've reduced our capital intensity by almost 25% right there.

    不過,我今天最想跟大家分享的是,如果我們要討論資本密集度,我會用粗略的數字來說明,因為這樣比較容易理解。去年我們的資本支出為40億美元,其中10億美元是透過出售消費業務獲得的,而EBITDA並沒有受到太大影響。因此,實際上,我們已經將資本密集度降低了近 25%。

  • As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, $1 billion of the $3 billion or so that we're guiding for this year relates to PCF. And remember, those deals are prefunded because of the quantum of those dollars. So when you get to the underlying capital intensity outside of PCF, we're at about a $2 billion business. And so as PCF bills will eventually go away, again, we're prefunding all of those.

    正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,我們今年預計的 30 億美元左右的預算中,有 10 億美元與 PCF 有關。請記住,這些交易都是預先融資的,因為涉及的金額龐大。因此,當我們檢視 PCF 以外的潛在資本密集度時,我們大約是一家規模達 20 億美元的企業。因此,隨著 PCF 帳單最終消失,我們再次預先為所有這些帳單提供資金。

  • We're really looking at a CapEx intensity profile that's roughly half of where we were last year. So that, combined with the margin improvements really do drive an ROIC improvement for investors.

    我們現在看到的資本支出強度大約只有去年的一半。因此,利潤率的提高與利潤率的改善相結合,確實能為投資者帶來投資報酬率的提升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sebastiano Petti, JPMorgan.

    塞巴斯蒂亞諾·佩蒂,摩根大通。

  • Sebastiano Petti - Analyst

    Sebastiano Petti - Analyst

  • Just wanted to quickly -- I mean, follow up on the, I guess, guidance for 2028 business revenue growth. I mean with -- I think last quarter, you kind of talked about, I think NaaS was supposed to contribute $400 million to $500 million in 2028 and then PCF about $300 million to $400 million. Correct me if I'm wrong, but more or less in that quantum $400 million to $500 million rather on the PCF, $300 million to $400 million on the digital side, $500 million to $600 million on digital.

    我只是想快速地——我是說,跟進一下關於 2028 年業務收入增長的指導意見。我的意思是——我想上個季度,你大概談到了,NaaS 應該在 2028 年貢獻 4 億至 5 億美元,而 PCF 大約貢獻 3 億至 4 億美元。如果我錯了請糾正我,但大致來說,PCF方面投入4億至5億美元,數字方面投入3億至4億美元,數字方面投入5億至6億美元。

  • I mean why is there not upside to that number given what you guys have talked about today, right? PCF, I guess, TAM now is, what, 25%, 35% larger than what we talked about exiting the third-quarter call and the NaaS digital adoption seems to be accelerating. And so -- any kind of color, Chris or Kate, you could provide on maybe the shaping of revenue and maybe there's upside relative to last quarter's expectations?

    我的意思是,考慮到你們今天要討論的內容,為什麼這個數字沒有上升空間呢?對吧?PCF,我猜,現在的TAM比我們在第三季電話會議結束時討論的要大25%到35%,而且NaaS數位化採用似乎正在加速。那麼——克里斯或凱特,你們能否就收入組成以及相對於上一季的預期是否有所提升提供一些資訊?

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Sebastiano. I'll let Chris handle the financial side of it. I just -- let me talk about the structural side of change in the industry. So any sort of change to critical infrastructure takes a long time. And what we're doing, just like the world of technology did in the transformation in the cloud era a decade or two ago, it's the same kind of thing. Everything changes.

    是的。謝謝你,塞巴斯蒂亞諾。財務方面的事情就交給克里斯來處理吧。我只想——讓我談談產業變革的結構性面。因此,對關鍵基礎設施的任何變更都需要很長時間。我們正在做的事情,就像十年前或二十年前科技界在雲端運算時代轉型時所做的那樣,本質上是一樣的。一切都會改變。

  • The product changes, the way you deploy it changes, the way you buy it changes, the way you service it is going to change. And we're being, I think, pretty conservative in the way that we think about not just our ability to deliver everything, but the market's ability to absorb that change. We see the catalyst of AI and Cloud 2.0 driving a clear and pressing need for that change.

    產品會改變,部署方式會改變,購買方式會改變,售後服務方式也會改變。我認為,我們在考慮自身交付能力以及市場吸收這種變化的能力時,都採取了相當保守的態度。我們看到人工智慧和雲端運算 2.0 的出現,催生了對這種變革的明確而迫切的需求。

  • But we're being cautiously optimistic and making sure that we're doing everything we need to do to prepare and provide change management for our customers as well. And Chris, I don't know if you want to give any financial guidance on top of that.

    但我們保持謹慎樂觀的態度,並確保我們盡一切努力為客戶提供變革管理的準備和支援。克里斯,我不知道你是否願意在此基礎上提供任何財務方面的指導。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So, Sebastiano, you're certainly right that the additional $2.5 billion of deals does help. But keep in mind, we're in 2026. It's going to take three years for those routes to get built at scale. So will there be some revenue impacts in 2028? Yes, I would expect it. Does that impact maybe and pull forward in the year when we inflect the growth? Yes, that's possible.

    是的。所以,塞巴斯蒂亞諾,你說的沒錯,這額外的 25 億美元交易確實有所幫助。但請記住,現在是 2026 年。這些路線需要三年才能大規模建成。那麼,2028年收入會受到影響嗎?是的,我預料到了。這是否會對我們預測成長的年份產生影響,並提前拉動成長?是的,有可能。

  • I think the more important thing as we move to Investor Day, we will, again, give you those -- the PCF math there. But it's really on the digital side, to your point, and NaaS is obviously a big piece of that. But the other leading metrics that Kate talked about, right, not just the number of circuits and the number of ports and the number of customers.

    我認為,隨著投資者日的臨近,更重要的是,我們將再次向大家提供PCF的計算結果。但正如你所說,這確實與數位化有關,而網路即服務 (NaaS) 顯然是其中的重要組成部分。但凱特提到的其他主要指標,對吧,不僅僅是電路數量、連接埠數量和客戶數量。

  • But the number of services and the fact that we now have the ability to have a significant off-net presence is really the opportunity we have to drive that digital adoption. And I will be very candid with you and give you a spoiler for Investor Day. We're humans. we are projecting kind of linear growth in digital. The reality is we all know that at some point, that's a J-curve adoption, but we're not going to try to predict where that J-curve comes into play. So, I think, what we're showing is a middle of the fairway estimate with the possibility for us to overachieve, but time will tell.

    但是,服務的數量以及我們現在有能力在網路外建立強大的影響力,這才是我們真正有機會推動數位普及的契機。我會非常坦誠地告訴你,我會劇透投資者日的一些內容。我們是人類,我們期望數位化發展呈線性成長。事實上,我們都知道,在某種程度上,這將是一個 J 型曲線的採用過程,但我們不會試圖預測 J 型曲線會在何時發揮作用。所以,我認為,我們目前展示的是一個中規中矩的估計,我們有可能超額完成目標,但時間會證明一切。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Batya Levi, UBS.

    Batya Levi,瑞銀集團。

  • Batya Levi - Analyst

    Batya Levi - Analyst

  • Can you provide a little bit more color on bridging to '26 EBITDA? I think you mentioned fiber sold was contributing about $300 million of EBITDA. You exited the year with higher cost savings than planned, but it also looks like SG&A ramped up higher as you exited the year. So how should we think about these cost items in totality as we go through 2026 and maybe pacing of the EBITDA could be helpful as well. And I'm not sure if you mentioned this, but did you quantify the PCF sale contribution for '26?

    您能否更詳細地說明一下2026年EBITDA的過渡情況?我想你提到過,光纖銷售貢獻了約 3 億美元的 EBITDA。雖然年底的成本節約高於預期,但銷售、一般及行政費用似乎也在年底上升。那麼,在展望 2026 年時,我們該如何全面考慮這些成本項目呢?或許調整 EBITDA 的成長速度也會有所幫助。我不確定您是否提到過這一點,但您是否量化了 2026 年 PCF 的銷售貢獻?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Not yet. No. We'll give you some more visibility to that at Investor Day because we'll talk about how PCF is impacting revenue by year and free cash flow. To your question, we are going to be releasing an 8-K tomorrow with the pro forma economics that will get specifically to your question, Batya. So I don't want to get into the details.

    還沒有。不。我們將在投資者日上更詳細地介紹這一點,因為我們將討論 PCF 如何影響每年的收入和自由現金流。Batya,關於你的問題,我們明天將發布一份 8-K 表格,其中包含預測經濟數據,這將具體回答你的問題。所以我不想贅述細節。

  • But when you take out the EBITDA from the '25 base year, you take out a little bit of EBITDA that we would have generated in the first month of this year and then you compare what's left, that's where you see the growth.

    但是,如果你從 2025 年的基準年中扣除 EBITDA,再扣除我們今年第一個月本應產生的 EBITDA,然後比較剩下的部分,你就能看到增長了。

  • Batya Levi - Analyst

    Batya Levi - Analyst

  • Okay. And the other cost items, how much should we think in terms of what's embedded in there for maybe higher SG&A as you exit the year? And then maybe the modernization spend that you've been incurring. Is that all done? Or do you anticipate more?

    好的。至於其他成本項目,我們該如何考慮其中可能包含的、可能導致年底銷售、一般及行政費用上漲的部分?然後,或許還有你一直在產生的現代化改造費用。都做完了嗎?或者你預期會有更多?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So the modernization is largely in special items. So we tried to separate that out in terms of its impact. We have projected in kind of the run rate that we're seeing on things like medical costs into the year. But the reality is, as Kate mentioned, we exited with our M&S savings at $400 million in '25. We're projecting $700 million in '26. So that's going to mute a lot of that.

    是的。因此,現代化改造主要集中在特殊產品。所以我們試著從其影響的角度將其區分開來。我們已經對醫療成本等方面的運行速度進行了大致預測,並將其納入今年的預測中。但正如凱特所提到的,現實情況是,我們在 2025 年退出 M&S 時節省了 4 億美元。我們預計 2026 年將達到 7 億美元。這樣就能消除很多這類聲音。

  • And again, we'll share five years of financials at Investor Day. I do want to -- again, I want to share one other thing that we've shared with investors that I think is really important. What that five-year model is going to show is that we are fully funded. We are not required to borrow money to fund our future anymore. We have excess cash over the five years, and we'll get into specifics on that.

    此外,我們將在投資者日上分享過去五年的財務數據。我想再次分享一件我們已經和投資者分享過的事情,我認為這非常重要。五年模型將顯示,我們的資金已全部到位。我們不再需要藉錢來籌措未來資金了。未來五年我們將有盈餘現金,稍後我們會詳細說明。

  • And our objective is to, one, fully fund our growth initiative and the transition of the company, and that is fully funded in that model. The second thing would be to continue to reduce leverage a little bit. And after that, if there's nothing that achieves those first two objectives, then we'll look to start buying back stock.

    我們的目標是,第一,為我們的成長計劃和公司轉型提供充足的資金,而這在該模式下是完全可以實現的。第二點是繼續適當降低槓桿率。之後,如果沒有任何措施能夠實現前兩個目標,那麼我們將考慮開始回購股票。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Frank Louthan, Raymond James & Associates.

    Frank Louthan,Raymond James & Associates。

  • Frank Louthan - Analyst

    Frank Louthan - Analyst

  • So, on the slide where you list the amount of fiber that you have that you're building out, how much of that fiber are you retaining for your own purposes versus what you're building for the customers?

    所以,在您列出正在建造中的光纖數量的幻燈片上,您保留了多少光纖供自己使用,又有多少光纖是為客戶建造的呢?

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I mean I'm not exactly sure the question. So we break it down into all the various consumers of it. We've got the hyperscalers connecting their data centers, that's the supply side. We've got enterprise utilization. That's the demand side of our role in the AI economy. And then we have available capacity for growth on the bottom line. And I think what's really interesting is in 2031, when we'll have 58 million miles of fiber installed in the ground, we will have more available for growth than when we started this journey in 2022.

    是的。我不太確定這個問題是什麼。所以我們把它細分為所有不同的消費者。我們已經有了超大規模資料中心營運商,他們正在連接自己的資料中心,這就是供應端。我們已經實現了企業級利用率。這就是我們在人工智慧經濟中扮演的需求方角色。這樣一來,我們在獲利方面還有成長空間。我認為真正有趣的是,到 2031 年,當我們地下鋪設了 5800 萬英里的光纖時,我們將比 2022 年開始這段旅程時擁有更多的發展空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gregory Williams, TD Cowen.

    格雷戈里·威廉姆斯,TD Cowen。

  • Gregory Williams - Analyst

    Gregory Williams - Analyst

  • Just on PCF, since you announced all those deals back in August of 2024, have you completed any of those projects? I know you said it takes up to three-years on these things. What I'm getting at is, is there any more -- is there any amortized PCF revenue running through the business at this point? And how much? Or is it still too early in seeing that revenue?

    就 PCF 而言,自從您在 2024 年 8 月宣布了所有這些交易以來,您是否完成了其中的任何項目?我知道你說過這些事情最多要三年。我的意思是,目前公司是否還有已攤提的 PCF 收入?多少錢?還是現在判斷收益還為時過早?

  • Second question is just on the NaaS metrics on slide 9 and alluding to the earlier Network-as-a-Service or digital revenue question. So are you basically trying to say that you're conservative on your estimates for 2028 inflection and that the metrics I see on slide 9, the new customers, new ports, you're pacing ahead of that or you're pacing in line with the sort of $500 million to $600 million in digital revenue?

    第二個問題只是關於第 9 頁投影片上的 NaaS 指標,並提及了前面提到的網路即服務或數位收入問題。所以你的意思是說,你對 2028 年的拐點估計比較保守,而我在第 9 張幻燈片上看到的指標,比如新客戶、新端口,你們的增長速度超過了預期,或者你們的增長速度與 5 億至 6 億美元的數字收入持平?

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. So, I'll take the first piece. So when I was talking about conservatism and structural change, I just want to be super clear. The pipes that are in the ground today that are running mission-critical applications for businesses, businesses are going to be very cautious in how they approach changing that infrastructure. And we think the buying patterns in NaaS represent exactly what this looks like. They buy a port, they test it.

    好的。那我先拿第一塊。所以,當我談到保守主義和結構性變革時,我只想非常清楚地說明一點。如今埋在地下的管線承載著企業的關鍵業務應用,企業在改造這些基礎設施時將會非常謹慎。我們認為NaaS領域的購買模式正是這種現象的體現。他們買下一個端口,然後進行測試。

  • They buy a second port and they run an application against it. When they have success, they start to buy three, four, five ports to run more of their locations. It's a standard land-and-expand model, and it's still pretty early to draw the curves to figure out exactly what's going to happen, but we're confident in the numbers we've given to the street with an over and under on that.

    他們購買了第二個端口,並針對該端口運行應用程式。當他們取得成功時,他們就會開始購買三、四、五個港口,以運作更多的分公司。這是一個標準的土地擴張模式,現在就繪製曲線來準確預測未來發展還為時過早,但我們對我們向市場給出的預測數據充滿信心,並給出了高於和低於預測值的估計。

  • And we've given you a range because it's very hard to predict the exact revenue outcomes for a massive change in industry, and that's what we are basically presenting. Regarding the PCF infrastructure sales, the ranges we've given you there are tied to whenever we finish construction, we light it up and we start to recognize the revenue. And the $13 billion, the builds go all the way out through 2031.

    我們給出了一個範圍,因為很難預測行業發生巨大變化後的確切收入結果,而這正是我們基本上要展示的內容。關於 PCF 基礎設施銷售,我們給出的價格範圍與我們完成建造、點亮並開始確認收入的時間有關。這項耗資 130 億美元的建設項目將持續到 2031 年。

  • And the ranges that we gave you for exiting '28 are not inclusive of what we just sold in Q4 because those builds won't be completed until after 2028. Chris?

    我們給出的 2028 年底的銷售範圍不包括我們在第四季度剛售出的車輛,因為這些車輛的建造要到 2028 年以後才能完成。克里斯?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. And just a few more details. So, in my prepared remarks, I said that in all of last year, we had $161 million of revenue recognized. -- Sorry, $116 million. Thank you. And $41 million of that was delivered in the fourth-quarter. So you can see it's starting to scale and ramp now, but we are either on or ahead of delivery schedule at this point with all of our customers.

    是的。還有一些細節需要補充。所以,在我準備好的演講稿中,我說去年全年我們確認的收入為1.61億美元。 ——抱歉,是1.16億美元。謝謝。其中 4100 萬美元是在第四季度交付的。所以你可以看到,現在它開始規模化和加速發展了,但目前我們對所有客戶的交付進度都已達到或超過預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Ng, Goldman Sachs.

    Michael Ng,高盛集團。

  • Michael Ng - Analyst

    Michael Ng - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the new segment reporting between strategic and legacy. I think strategic is made up of a portion of Grow and Nurture. Could you just talk a little bit about what's in strategic? What part of Grow didn't make it in. I would assume it's like VOIP, but would love to hear a little bit more about that. And then what are your assumptions in terms of like the strategic revenue growth and the legacy revenue declines as we inflect to business revenue growth in 2028?

    我想詢問一下戰略部門和傳統部門之間新的部門報告劃分。我認為策略是由成長和培育的一部分所構成的。能簡單談談戰略方面的內容嗎?《成長》的哪一部分沒被收錄進去?我猜它跟網路電話(VOIP)差不多,但很想了解更多相關資訊。那麼,在2028年轉向業務收入成長的過程中,您對策略性收入成長和傳統收入下降有何假設?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, no problem. So, the shift, what we did is the grow items that didn't make the cut. And again, grow really relates to the most modern forms of connectivity, everything from delivered in a traditional manner to delivered digitally. But what we took out were specific product lines that are in decline. So when you think about lower capacity connectivity versus higher capacity connectivity, there are parts of those businesses that are in decline.

    好的,沒問題。所以,我們做出的調整是,把那些沒能入選的計畫發展壯大。再次強調,成長實際上與最現代的連接形式有關,包括以傳統方式交付和以數位方式交付的一切。但我們剔除的是那些正在走下坡的特定產品線。所以,當你考慮低容量連線與高容量連線時,你會發現這些業務的某些部分正在衰退。

  • And in effect, those are legacy businesses now. And by the way, this is something that is very rules-based internally. And as we go forward because of product life cycle, you'll continue to see us move products through that life cycle so that we're giving you a very clear view. The items that moved out of nurture and into strategic were really things like Ethernet on demand, right? VPN on demand.

    實際上,這些現在都成了傳統企業。順便說一句,這在內部是有非常嚴格的規則。隨著產品生命週期的發展,您將會看到我們不斷推進產品生命週期,以便為您提供非常清晰的視野。從培育階段過渡到戰略階段的項目,實際上就是像按需乙太網路這樣的技術,對吧?按需使用VPN。

  • Those are digitally delivered products that are in demand and grow products, products that our sales team should be selling. Now to the second part of your question, we will continue to see the mix shift in our favor and that strategic bucket grow from the 52% from here forward. And we'll give you a better view of that in a few weeks at Investor Day.

    這些都是市場需求旺盛且不斷成長的數位化產品,也是我們銷售團隊該銷售的產品。現在回答您問題的第二部分,我們將繼續看到市場結構向我們有利的方向轉變,並且從現在開始,這個策略性投資組合的佔比將從 52% 成長。我們將在幾週後的投資者日上向您詳細介紹這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nick Del Deo, MoffettNathanson.

    尼克·德爾·迪奧,莫菲特·內森森。

  • Nick Del Deo - Analyst

    Nick Del Deo - Analyst

  • So you talked about NaaS net sales being strong. Interest in PCF seems pretty strong. Can you talk more broadly about what you're seeing with respect to gross sales for the remainder of the business and maybe share some insights into churn trends? And then second, just to follow up on Greg's question earlier. Thinking about the PCF revenue that you disclosed this year, should we think of that as sort of a 90-10 non-cash versus cash split akin to the overall mix that you originally described? Or was there a different non-cash versus cash mix?

    所以你提到了NaaS淨銷售額強勁。大家對PCF的興趣似乎相當濃厚。您能否更廣泛地談談您觀察到的其他業務部門的總銷售額情況,並分享一些關於客戶流失趨勢的見解?其次,我想就格雷格之前提出的問題做個後續說明。考慮到您今年揭露的 PCF 收入,我們是否應該將其視為類似於您最初描述的整體組合中 90% 非現金收入與 10% 現金收入的比例?或非現金支付與現金支付的比例不同?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So, in terms of the first part, Nick, we saw particular strength in IP this quarter. But again, there's -- really across all connectivity solutions, there's demand right now. So no surprises there. Churn trends in total have remained fairly consistent with where they have been, which obviously was an improvement in '25 versus '24. But one thing we are seeing, and we don't have numbers to disclose. But on our NaaS offering, the churn rates are dramatically less than what we see on traditional sales. It's a much stickier sale.

    所以,尼克,就第一部分而言,我們本季在智慧財產權方面看到了特別強勁的勢頭。但話說回來,實際上,所有連接解決方案目前都有需求。所以這並不令人意外。整體而言,客戶流失趨勢與以往基本保持一致,顯然 2025 年比 2024 年有所改善。但我們看到一件事,但我們沒有具體數字可以透露。但就我們的網路即服務 (NaaS) 產品而言,客戶流失率遠低於傳統銷售模式。這是一筆更難追趕的銷售。

  • Jim Breen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relation

    Jim Breen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relation

  • And Nick, what was the second part of your question?

    尼克,你問題的第二部分是什麼?

  • Nick Del Deo - Analyst

    Nick Del Deo - Analyst

  • So the PCF revenue that you disclosed, the $41 million in the quarter and the $116 million for the year. Should we think of that as being like 90% noncash, 10% cash? Or is there a different mix because you're kind of early in the process?

    所以,您揭露的 PCF 收入,本季為 4,100 萬美元,全年為 1.16 億美元。我們是否可以將其理解為 90% 為非現金支付,10% 為現金支付?或者,由於你們還處於流程的早期階段,所以成分組合有所不同?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I think that's reasonable just to assume as we go forward because, again, to your point, our guidance has been that 90% of the cash is received upfront for the builds and then 10% as we light that fiber, and we don't recognize the revenue until we light the fiber. So I think it's a good assumption. And again, we will give you the five-year outlook for the impact to revenue from those deals in a few weeks.

    我認為這樣假設是合理的,因為正如您所說,我們的指導原則是,90% 的現金在建設初期收到,10% 在光纖開通時收到,而且我們只有在光纖開通後才會確認收入。所以我認為這是一個合理的假設。幾週後,我們將再次向您提供這些交易對未來五年收入影響的展望。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Funk, Bank of America.

    麥可‧芬克,美國銀行。

  • Michael Funk - Analyst

    Michael Funk - Analyst

  • So, first one, a lot of reports of construction delays recently, specifically data center build. So what are you doing specifically to avoid construction delays? And then just want to understand better in the contracts that you have with customers and revenue recognition for the PCF, are they able to delay acceptance of delivery? Or once it's finished, you light it up as to recognizing revenue at that point?

    首先,最近有很多關於建築工程延誤的報道,特別是資料中心建設。那麼,你們具體採取了哪些措施來避免工期延誤?然後,我想更了解一下,在您與客戶簽訂的合約以及 PCF 的收入確認方面,他們是否可以延遲收貨?或者,一旦完工,你就點亮它來確認當時的收入嗎?

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • A couple of things. First, what are we doing to deliver on time? We have scale and scale across many different elements that really matter. So scale across the supply chain. So our contracts are very favorable in terms of first off the line priority status. We have scale in terms of workforce. So if you want to join a construction team that's going to be at this for several years, you want to join one of our partners because they're building the largest expansion of the Internet at large for Lumen.

    有幾件事。首先,我們採取了哪些措施來確保按時交付?我們在許多真正重要的方面都擁有規模優勢。因此,要擴大整個供應鏈的規模。因此,就優先下線地位而言,我們的合約非常有利。我們在員工規模方面具備優勢。所以,如果你想加入一個將持續數年進行這項工程的建立團隊,你應該加入我們的合作夥伴之一,因為他們正在為 Lumen 建立網路領域規模最大的擴展。

  • And so our scale really, really matters here and gives us the accessibility to all the things that we need to ensure that there are no constraints put on our ability to execute on time. Regarding demand and pressing pause, the general feeling in the market is how fast can you go? And it's widely recognized that we can go fast because we're oftentimes already there.

    因此,我們的規模在這裡真的非常重要,它使我們能夠獲得所需的一切,以確保我們按時執行的能力不受任何限制。關於需求和暫停,市場上的普遍感受是:你能走多快?人們普遍認為,我們之所以能快速前進,是因為我們通常已經到達了目的地。

  • And the amount of work that we have to do is about overbuilding and not building for the first time. I will tell you, I can't reveal any names here, but we did a large deal with a company, a cloud company. And it was the first time that we've done work with this company and went so fast that we got a call from the Head of Operations that said, we've never experienced this kind of speed before with the telco.

    而我們必須完成的工作量在於過度建設,而不是第一次建設。我可以告訴你,我不能在這裡透露任何名字,但我們與一家公司,一家雲端運算公司,達成了一筆大交易。這是我們第一次與這家公司合作,進展如此之快,以至於營運主管給我們打電話說,我們以前從未體驗過電信公司如此快的速度。

  • Can we meet more regularly so that we can understand your true capacity and ability to go at this pace because we weren't quite ready for it. So that was one of the more fun phone calls I've ever gotten. I'm going to be very honest with you. And then, Chris, did you want to add something?

    我們能否更頻繁地見面,以便了解你以這種速度前進的真實能力和潛力,因為我們還沒有完全做好準備。那是我接到過的最有趣的電話之一。我會對你非常坦誠。那麼,克里斯,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I'd say a couple of other things. On the first part on the construction, again, we've got a very special relationship with Corning, and we are doing very well in terms of access to fiber. I think the other point, though, and I'm going to kind of go with the nuance of your question, which is, can I hit pause because of concerns over a bubble.

    是的。我還想補充幾點。關於建設的第一部分,我們與康寧公司有著非常特殊的合作關係,我們在光纖接入方面做得非常好。不過,我認為還有一點,我想從你問題的細微之處來談談,那就是,我是否可以因為擔心泡沫而暫停投資。

  • I can say consistently and in terms of our engagements with those customers, and you can hear it in the market, hyperscalers are not talking about a bubble. They are talking about they don't have enough fast enough. And I would also tell you that many of our contracts have performance bonuses in them for us to go faster. So that's the reality that we live with every day, and we're delivering against it.

    我可以始終如一地表示,就我們與這些客戶的互動而言,而且你也可以從市場上聽到,超大規模資料中心營運商並沒有談論泡沫。他們說他們沒有足夠的資源,速度也不夠快。我還要告訴你們,我們的許多合約中都包含績效獎金,以激勵我們加快進度。這就是我們每天都要面對的現實,而我們正在努力克服它。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. And I think one of the final things I'll mention is that the reason why we're able to execute as swiftly as we are is the same reason why we get chosen, and that's because a lot of the deals that we're doing are to existing data center areas where our network has proximity.

    是的。最後我想提一點,我們之所以能夠如此迅速地執行項目,也是我們被選中的原因,因為我們達成的許多交易都是針對現有資料中心區域,而我們的網路就在這些區域附近。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sam McHugh, BNP Paribas.

    Sam McHugh,法國巴黎銀行。

  • Sam McHugh - Analyst

    Sam McHugh - Analyst

  • I have a couple of follow-ups for you, Chris, if you don't mind. First one was on the EBITDA guide. I think you mentioned about the growth in '26, the $3.5 billion prior guide. I just wanted to clarify, the range of $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion, are we saying it's still growth versus '25 throughout the whole range or at the midpoint of the range? And then the second was, and I'll try -- you go first.

    克里斯,如果你不介意的話,我還有幾個後續問題想問你。第一個是關於 EBITDA 指南的。我想你提到了 2026 年的成長,以及之前 35 億美元的預期。我只是想澄清一下,31億美元到33億美元的範圍,我們是指整個範圍都比2025年增長,還是指範圍的中點部分的增長?然後第二個問題是,我來試試──你先來。

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So just to answer that. So the $3.5 billion was when we still had the consumer business in there. And I think the estimate for 2026 at that time was about $300 million in EBITDA -- adjusted EBITDA. So that's broad numbers, that's really what's driving us there. As it relates to inflection, we're saying inflection on the year. It's not going to be in every quarter. And again, when you see the pro forma math in the 8-K tomorrow, that will help with that. But sorry, you had a follow-up.

    是的。所以,我來回答這個問題。所以,35億美元的數字是在我們還有消費者業務的時候取得的。我認為當時對 2026 年的 EBITDA(調整後 EBITDA)的估計約為 3 億美元。所以,以上是大致數據,這才是真正促使我們這麼做的原因。就轉捩點而言,我們指的是年份的轉捩點。不會每季都這樣。再說一遍,明天你在 8-K 文件中看到預測財務數據時,那會對你有所幫助。抱歉,您還有後續問題。

  • Sam McHugh - Analyst

    Sam McHugh - Analyst

  • And the follow-up was one on PCF. And I guess maybe we won't get an answer, but until the CMD, but rough math would suggest like working capital and PCF cash inflows are around $1.7 billion or something based on the guide. Like am I miles off with that? And is there any reason why working capital could be massively positive or negative?

    後續研究是關於 PCF 的。我猜我們可能不會得到答案,但在 CMD 會議之前,根據指導方針粗略計算,營運資本和 PCF 現金流入約為 17 億美元左右。我的說法是不是錯得離譜?營運資本出現巨大正值或負值的原因是什麼?

  • Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Christopher Stansbury - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean working capital will definitely be positive. That's obviously where those PCF inflows and outflows or inflows show on the balance sheet and then the outflows obviously show up in CapEx. So again, as we've said to the market, at some point, when PCF stops, we'll have trailing CapEx that we've already received the cash for.

    是的。我的意思是,營運資金一定會是正數。顯然,PCF 的流入和流出就會反映在資產負債表上,而流出則反映在資本支出上。所以,正如我們之前對市場所說,在某個時候,當 PCF 停止時,我們將有已經收到現金的後續資本支出。

  • But with $2.5 billion coming in and more demand in the pipeline, that's just not something that we're encountering right now. And that obviously increased our guide for next year. And I think that's why people are seeing that we're higher than consensus on that estimate.

    但隨著 25 億美元的資金流入以及更多需求的出現,我們目前還沒有遇到這種情況。這顯然提高了我們明年的預期。我認為這就是為什麼人們會發現我們的預測高於普遍預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I'll now pass it back to Kate Johnson, CEO, for closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把發言權交還給執行長凱特·約翰遜,請她作總結發言。

  • Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kathleen Johnson - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, moderator, and thanks, everybody, for engaging in today's call. We look forward to speaking with you more about the future of Lumen at our Investor Day in just a few weeks. Have a great night.

    謝謝主持人,也謝謝各位參與今天的電話會議。我們期待在幾週後的投資者日上與您進一步探討 Lumen 的未來發展。祝你有個美好的夜晚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,請您斷開線路。祝大家今天過得愉快。