KeyCorp (KEY) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to KeyCorp's first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 KeyCorp 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Mauney, KeyCorp Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給 KeyCorp 投資人關係總監 Brian Mauney。請開始。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm here with Chris Gorman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer; and Mo Ramani, our Chief Risk Officer.

謝謝，接線員，大家早安。感謝各位參加 KeyCorp 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：董事長兼執行長 Chris Gorman；財務長 Clark Khayat；以及風險長 Mo Ramani。

As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the key.com website. In the back of the presentation, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures. This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements, and those statements speak only as of today, April 16, 2026, and will not be updated.

如同往常，我們將參考財報簡報投影片，可在 key.com 網站的投資人關係專區找到。在簡報後段，您會看到我們對前瞻性揭露以及特定財務衡量指標（包含非 GAAP 指標）的聲明。此聲明涵蓋我們的財報資料以及今天早上電話會議中的發言。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異，且這些陳述僅截至今日（2026 年 4 月 16 日）有效，並不會更新。

With that, I will turn it over to Chris.

接下來，我把時間交給 Chris。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Our strong first-quarter performance demonstrates disciplined execution and significant momentum as we continue to deliver on our commitments.

謝謝你，Brian，大家早安。我們第一季的強勁表現展現了紀律性的執行力與顯著的動能，因為我們持續兌現承諾。

We reported first-quarter earnings of $0.44 per share, up 33% year over year. Return on tangible common equity exceeded 13% as we continue to make significant progress with respect to our goal of 15%-plus return on tangible common equity by year-end 2027.

我們公布第一季每股盈餘為 0.44 美元，年增 33%。有形普通股權益報酬率（ROTCE）超過 13%，我們也持續在達成 2027 年底前 ROTCE 15% 以上的目標方面取得顯著進展。

Revenue grew 10% year over year, with revenue growing more than two times the rate of expenses. Adjusted pre-provision net revenue grew an additional $29 million sequentially, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of adjusted PPNR growth.

營收年增 10%，且營收成長速度超過費用的兩倍。調整後備抵提列前淨收益（PPNR）較前一季再增加 2,900 萬美元，為連續第八季調整後 PPNR 成長。

Net interest margin expanded 5 basis points sequentially to 2.87% as we remain on track to exceed 3% net interest margin by year-end. Commercial loan growth was strong and broad-based across industries and geographies, increasing $3.3 billion, or 4% sequentially, on a period-end basis.

淨利差（NIM）較前一季擴大 5 個基點至 2.87%，我們仍按計畫在年底前使淨利差超過 3%。商業放款成長強勁，且在各產業與各地區均呈現廣泛成長；以期末基礎計算，較前一季增加 33 億美元，或 4%。

We continued to be disciplined with respect to funding cost management. Total funding costs declined by 15 basis points during the quarter, with interest-bearing deposit costs decreasing 22 basis points, resulting in a cumulative through-the-cycle down beta of 56%. Asset quality metrics remain strong, with a net charge-off ratio of just 38 basis points.

我們在資金成本管理方面持續保持紀律。本季總資金成本下降 15 個基點，其中計息存款成本下降 22 個基點，使得累計全週期下行 beta 達到 56%。資產品質指標仍然強勁，淨沖銷比率僅 38 個基點。

In addition to improving our return on capital, we remain committed to substantial return of capital to our shareholders. During the quarter, we took advantage of the pullback in regional bank stock prices and repurchased nearly $400 million of common stock, well in excess of the $300 million-plus commitment we made in January.

除了提升資本報酬之外，我們也持續致力於向股東大幅回饋資本。本季我們把握區域性銀行股價回檔的機會，回購近 4 億美元普通股，明顯高於我們在 1 月所承諾的 3 億美元以上。

We are also encouraged by the latest Basel III endgame proposal. Our preliminary estimate shows a 100-plus-basis-point benefit to our marked CET1 ratio under the revised standardized approach if implemented as currently proposed. This would imply a fully phased-in ratio of around 11%, higher than our peers and higher than we believe we need to operate our business in the ordinary course.

我們也對最新的《巴塞爾協定 III》終局（endgame）提案感到鼓舞。我們的初步估算顯示，若依目前提案所述實施，在修訂後的標準法下，我們的標示 CET1 比率可受益逾 100 個基點。這意味著在完全分階段落實後，比率約為 11%，高於同業，也高於我們認為在日常營運中所需的水準。

Our capital position gives us flexibility to continue to lean in aggressively this year and in the coming years to support our clients, to support our own organic growth, and to repurchase our shares. Subject to market conditions, we expect to buy back at least $1.3 billion of our shares in 2026, up from the $1.2 billion we previously communicated. While the macroeconomic environment has continued to be dynamic, we will remain laser-focused on managing what we can control: the delivery of our differentiated capabilities, acceleration of new client acquisition, and exceptional service to all our clients.

我們的資本部位讓我們具備彈性，能在今年及未來幾年持續更積極投入，以支持客戶、支持自身的有機成長，並回購股份。在市場狀況允許下，我們預期 2026 年至少回購 13 億美元股份，高於先前對外溝通的 12 億美元。儘管總體經濟環境持續變動，我們將持續高度聚焦於可控事項：交付我們差異化的能力、加速新客戶取得，以及為所有客戶提供卓越服務。

We continue to grow clients. Commercial clients were up 3%, and relationship households were up 2% from the prior year in the first quarter. We continue to gain share across our priority fee-based businesses: wealth, investment banking, and commercial payments. In the first quarter, these businesses collectively grew by 12% when compared to the prior year. This past quarter, we raised nearly $47 billion of capital on behalf of our clients, retaining 19% on our balance sheet.

我們持續擴大客戶規模。第一季商業客戶較去年同期增加 3%，關係型家庭戶（relationship households）較去年同期增加 2%。我們在優先發展的手續費型業務（財富管理、投資銀行與商業支付）持續提升市占。第一季這些業務合計較去年同期成長 12%。過去一季，我們代表客戶募集近 470 億美元資本，其中 19% 留在我們的資產負債表上。

Investment banking pipelines continue to remain elevated, up 5% from year-end, with M&A pipelines at record levels. While we do currently expect investment banking fees to decline in the second quarter compared to the record first quarter given current market conditions, we continue to feel very comfortable that we can grow investment banking fees in the mid-single digits for the full year.

投資銀行業務案源（pipeline）仍維持在高檔，較年底增加 5%，其中併購（M&A）案源創下歷史新高。雖然在目前市場狀況下，我們預期第二季投資銀行費用收入將較創紀錄的第一季下滑，但我們仍相當有信心全年投資銀行費用收入可達中個位數成長。

Commercial loan pipelines also remain very healthy, up nearly 20% from year-end, despite the strong pull-through in the first quarter. Our mass affluent wealth strategy continues to bring in new households, net flows, and client assets to Key, reaching 57,000 households and $7.4 billion of total client assets as of March 31. With a mass affluent household opportunity of 1.15 million customers, we remain less than 10% penetrated, implying a significant runway going forward.

商業放款案源也維持非常健康，儘管第一季轉化（pull-through）強勁，仍較年底增加近 20%。我們針對大眾富裕族群（mass affluent）的財富策略持續為 Key 帶來新家庭戶、淨流入與客戶資產；截至 3 月 31 日，已達 57,000 戶、客戶資產總額 74 億美元。在大眾富裕家庭戶 115 萬名客戶的機會中，我們目前滲透率仍不到 10%，意味著未來仍有可觀的成長跑道。

We continue to hire frontline bankers. This past quarter, we hired a middle market banking team based in Atlanta and a family office and private capital team based in Kansas City. We also hire talented investment bankers and wealth managers as our differentiated platforms continue to attract top bankers. We will continue to grow our banker ranks, including evaluating team hires and niche tuck-in non-bank transaction opportunities as they arise, in order to leverage our unique but currently under-leveraged platforms.

我們持續招募第一線銀行人員。過去一季，我們在亞特蘭大招募了一支中型市場（middle market）銀行團隊，並在堪薩斯市招募了一支家族辦公室與私募資本團隊。隨著我們差異化的平台持續吸引頂尖銀行家，我們也招募優秀的投資銀行家與財富管理人員。我們將持續擴充銀行家團隊，包括在機會出現時評估團隊式招募，以及利基型補強（tuck-in）的非銀行交易機會，以發揮我們獨特但目前尚未充分運用的平台。

Lastly, we are investing approximately $1 billion in technology this year that will give us new product and service capabilities and deliver better outcomes and experiences for those we serve. As it pertains to AI, we are focused on a few thematic use cases that will enhance client experiences, accelerate credit decisioning, increase technology productivity, and strengthen risk and security monitoring.

最後，我們今年將在科技方面投資約 10 億美元，以帶來新的產品與服務能力，並為我們所服務的對象提供更佳成果與體驗。在 AI 方面，我們聚焦於幾個主題式應用情境，以提升客戶體驗、加速授信決策、提高科技生產力，並強化風險與資安監控。

Given the strong start to the year and the favorable dynamics we are seeing across loans and deposits, we have increased our full-year net interest income and loan guidance while reiterating each of our other financial commitments. While we enjoy strong momentum, we will remain vigilant as it pertains to a wide variety of potential macroeconomic outcomes. Our updated NII guidance assumes a wide range of interest rate scenarios.

鑑於今年開局強勁，以及我們在放款與存款方面看到的有利動態，我們上調了全年淨利息收入（NII）與放款指引，同時重申其他各項財務承諾。儘管我們動能強勁，但對於各種潛在的總體經濟結果，我們仍將保持警覺。我們更新後的 NII 指引假設涵蓋廣泛的利率情境。

Additionally, we have added to our already elevated qualitative loan loss reserves this past quarter in order to account for a wider range of potential macroeconomic outcomes. As it pertains to private credit, we have provided additional disclosures this quarter. The summary here is we continue to be very comfortable with these books of business. Finally, the first quarter was a strong quarter, and our business enjoys a significant amount of momentum.

此外，為了反映更廣泛的潛在總體經濟結果，我們在本季進一步增加了原本已處於高檔的質性貸損準備。就私募信貸（private credit）而言，我們本季提供了更多揭露。總結來說，我們對這些業務組合仍然非常有信心。最後，第一季表現強勁，我們的業務也具備顯著的成長動能。

Before turning it over to Clark, I am pleased to announce that Clark has assumed an expanded role to lead our technology and operations organization, in addition to his role as CFO. We look forward to the contributions he will bring to our technology and operations teams at a pivotal and exciting time as we leverage AI to grow our business and better serve our clients.

在交給 Clark 之前，我很高興宣布，Clark 已承擔擴大的職責，除擔任財務長（CFO）外，亦將領導我們的科技與營運組織。在我們運用 AI 推動業務成長並更好地服務客戶的關鍵且令人振奮的時刻，我們期待他為科技與營運團隊帶來的貢獻。

With that, I'd like to turn it over to Clark. Clark?

接下來，我想把時間交給 Clark。Clark？

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝你，Chris。

Starting on slide 4, we reported first-quarter earnings per share of $0.44. Revenue was up 10% year over year, while expenses increased by 4%. Taxable equivalent net interest income increased 11% year over year and was up 1% sequentially despite impact from two fewer days in the quarter and seasonally lower deposits. Non-interest income increased 8% year over year as our priority fee-based businesses collectively grew by 12%. Loan loss provision of $106 million included 38 basis points of net charge-offs and a reserve build of $5 million. The net build reflected additional qualitative reserves to account for the macro uncertainty, offsetting improvement in Moody's economic scenarios and credit migration trends. Tangible book value per share increased 10% year over year.

從第 4 頁投影片開始，我們公布第一季每股盈餘為 0.44 美元。營收年增 10%，而費用增加 4%。以應稅等值（taxable equivalent）計算的淨利息收入年增 11%，在本季少了兩天且存款季節性偏低的影響下，仍較前一季增加 1%。非利息收入年增 8%，因我們優先發展的手續費型業務合計成長 12%。貸款損失準備金為 1.06 億美元，其中包含 38 個基點的淨沖銷，以及 500 萬美元的備抵增加。淨增加反映為因應總體不確定性而增提的額外質化準備金，抵銷了 Moody's 經濟情境與信用遷徙趨勢改善所帶來的影響。每股有形帳面價值年增 10%。

Moving to the balance sheet on slide 5. Average loans were up $1.4 billion sequentially and increased $2.6 billion on a period-end basis. Average C&I loans and average CRE loans both grew by 3%, partly offset by the ongoing intentional runoff of low-yielding consumer loans. On a period-end basis, C&I loans grew by $3 billion or 5%. Growth was broad-based across industries and regions with both institutional and middle market clients. The largest industry contributors were within our financial services and utilities power and renewables industry verticals. C&I line utilization increased 1% sequentially to 31.5% as loan growth outpaced commitments.

接著看第 5 頁投影片的資產負債表。平均放款較前一季增加 14 億美元，期末口徑則增加 26 億美元。平均工商貸款（C&I）與平均商用不動產貸款（CRE）皆成長 3%，部分被我們持續有意縮減的低收益消費貸款所抵銷。以期末口徑計，C&I 放款增加 30 億美元或 5%。成長涵蓋各產業與各區域，來自機構型與中型市場客戶。貢獻最大的產業來自我們的金融服務，以及公用事業電力與再生能源等產業垂直領域。由於放款成長速度快於承諾額度，C&I 額度動用率較前一季上升 1% 至 31.5%。

Turning to slide 6. With the attention that NDFI and private credit have been getting lately, we've provided some additional disclosures with respect to our portfolio and want to share how we manage the businesses. First, a reminder that the NDFI nomenclature is a regulatory definition. As you know, these definitions have changed and continue to be refined, and we will continue to apply our best efforts to categorize these loans within the spirit of these definitions.

接著看第 6 頁投影片。鑑於近期市場對 NDFI 與私募信貸的關注，我們就投資組合提供了更多補充揭露，並分享我們如何管理相關業務。首先提醒，NDFI 的命名是監理上的定義。如各位所知，這些定義已經改變且仍在持續精煉中；我們也將持續盡最大努力，依循這些定義的精神來分類這些貸款。

In the quarter, we grew NDFI loans by $2.4 billion. A third of that growth is a result of the reclassification of existing loans. So that's not actual loan growth, but rather an expansion of what had previously been included in the category based on further examination of the regulatory guidance. The loans here are real estate non-owner occupied.

本季我們的 NDFI 放款增加 24 億美元。其中三分之一的成長來自既有放款的重新分類。因此這並非實際放款成長，而是基於進一步檢視監理指引後，將先前未納入該類別的範圍擴大。此處的貸款為不動產（非自用）相關。

The additional growth of approximately $1.6 billion comes from three areas. About half of these are loans connected to real estate debt funds run by sophisticated sponsors with whom we have deep relationships and where the underlying properties are geographically diversified. We expect to syndicate about 25% of these loans in the second quarter.

其餘約 16 億美元的新增成長來自三個領域。其中約一半為與不動產債務基金相關的貸款，這些基金由成熟的贊助方管理；我們與其有深厚關係，且其底層資產在地理上分散。我們預期在第二季將約 25% 的這些貸款進行聯貸分銷。

Second, $400 million of this growth is fairly evenly split between insurance and other high-quality finance companies. And third, our specialty finance business loans grew about $400 million, primarily from AAA-rated CLOs.

第二，這部分成長中的 4 億美元，約平均分布於保險公司與其他高品質金融公司。第三，我們的專業金融（specialty finance）業務放款增加約 4 億美元，主要來自 AAA 評級的 CLO。

While we will, of course, continue to disclose NDFI under the regulatory rules, this is not the way we think about these loans. They're a reflection of four distinct businesses that are collectively 90% investment-grade: institutional real estate lending, specialty finance lending, insurance and finance companies, and our unitranche funds. Each business is relationship-based and has its own set of credit concentration limits and risk parameters, with de minimis NPLs and much lower criticized loan rates than our other commercial loans.

當然，我們會依監理規則持續揭露 NDFI，但這並不是我們看待這些貸款的方式。它們反映四個不同的業務，合計 90% 為投資等級：機構型不動產放款、專業金融放款、保險與金融公司，以及我們的 unitranche 基金。各業務皆以關係為基礎，並各自有信用集中度上限與風險參數；不良放款（NPL）占比極低，且受批評貸款比率也遠低於我們其他商業放款。

As it pertains to private credit, as the waterfall shows, we estimate approximately $10.9 billion of outstandings as of March 31, with roughly 70% through our specialty finance lending business, which are asset-backed loans made largely through bankruptcy remote SPE vehicles. SFL loans are 98% investment grade, diversified by industry and geography, with thousands of underlying obligors. We typically underwrite to the counterparty and their underwriting policies and have a long list of collateral eligibility criteria that they must adhere to.

就私募信貸而言，如瀑布圖所示，我們估計截至 3 月 31 日的未償餘額約為 109 億美元，其中約 70% 來自我們的專業金融放款業務；該業務主要透過破產隔離（bankruptcy remote）的 SPE 載體承作資產擔保貸款。SFL 放款 98% 為投資等級，按產業與地理區域分散，底層債務人數以千計。我們通常依交易對手及其承作政策進行授信審查，並設有一長串其必須遵循的擔保品合格性標準。

First loss cushions typically range from 30% to 50%, and we're very disciplined when it comes to ongoing collateral and liquidity monitoring with structural protections and performance deteriorates. Through the first quarter, all of our facilities are performing as structured and required. In short, we think these are great businesses. They are relationship-based with excellent credit profiles and require the focus and expertise that make them excellent examples of our targeted scale strategy.

第一損失緩衝通常介於 30% 至 50%；在持續性的擔保品與流動性監控方面，我們也非常嚴謹，並設有結構性保護措施以因應績效惡化。截至第一季末，我們所有授信額度皆依既定結構與要求正常運作。總之，我們認為這些是非常優質的業務。它們以關係為基礎、信用體質優異，且需要專注與專業能力；這也使其成為我們「聚焦式規模（targeted scale）」策略的絕佳例證。

Turning to slide 7. Average deposits decreased by 2% sequentially, reflecting typical seasonal patterns and the intentional runoff of $1.6 billion in higher-cost brokered CDs. We expect the deposits to drop in early May and grow from there through year-end. Reported average non-interest-bearing deposits decreased 5.5% sequentially, but remained stable at 24% of total deposits when adjusted for our hybrid accounts.

接著看第 7 頁投影片。平均存款較前一季下降 2%，反映典型的季節性型態，以及我們有意縮減 16 億美元較高成本的經紀存單（brokered CDs）。我們預期存款會在 5 月初下滑，之後一路成長至年底。揭露的平均無息存款較前一季下降 5.5%，但若就我們的混合型帳戶（hybrid accounts）調整後，仍穩定維持在總存款的 24%。

Total deposit costs declined by 16 basis points to 1.65%. Our cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta increased to 56%. We continue to take proactive actions in repricing deposits through limiting our incremental funding needs by remixing loans from consumer to commercial, gathering low-cost commercial deposits, particularly in payments, while allowing certain rate-sensitive excess commercial deposits to leave, and by actively rotating maturing CDs into money market deposits in consumer. Overall, interest-bearing funding costs decreased by 21 basis points, bringing our cumulative funding beta to 68%.

總存款成本下降 16 個基點至 1.65%。我們累計的計息存款 beta 上升至 56%。我們持續主動調整存款重定價：透過將放款結構由消費轉向商業以限制新增資金需求、吸收低成本商業存款（尤其在支付業務）、同時讓部分對利率敏感的多餘商業存款流出，並積極將到期存單在消費端轉換至貨幣市場存款。整體而言，計息資金成本下降 21 個基點，使我們累計的資金 beta 達到 68%。

Slide 8 provides drivers of NII and NIM this quarter. Taxable equivalent NII was up 1% and net interest margin increased 5 basis points from the prior quarter to 2.87%. The increase was driven by remixing lower-yielding consumer loans into higher-yielding commercial loans, swap repricing, and proactive deposit data management, which more than offset the impact of seasonally lower deposits and two fewer days in the quarter.

第 8 頁投影片說明本季淨利息收入（NII）與淨利差（NIM）的驅動因素。以應稅等值計算的 NII 上升 1%，淨利差較前一季增加 5 個基點至 2.87%。上升主要來自將較低收益的消費貸款重新配置至較高收益的商業貸款、交換合約重定價，以及主動的存款資料管理；上述因素足以抵銷存款季節性偏低與本季少兩天的影響。

Our balance sheet position continues to be fairly neutral to changes in interest rates as we move through 2026. We would see some modest benefit from reductions in the short end of the curve, as well as from increases in three- and five-year reinvestment rate.

隨著我們邁向 2026 年，我們的資產負債表部位對利率變動仍大致維持中性。若殖利率曲線短端下移，以及三年期與五年期再投資利率上升，我們將可獲得一些溫和的正面效益。

On slide 9, non-interest income increased 8% year over year. Investment banking and debt placement fees were $197 million, an increase of 13% year over year and a new first-quarter record. Growth was driven by M&A, equity issuance activity, and commercial mortgage debt placement activity. Our pipelines remain elevated and we're up about 5% from year-end. M&A pipelines were at record levels.

在第 9 頁投影片，非利息收入年增 8%。投資銀行與債務承銷配置費用為 1.97 億美元，年增 13%，並創下第一季新高紀錄。成長動能來自併購（M&A）、股權發行活動，以及商用不動產抵押債務配置活動。我們的案源管線（pipeline）仍維持在高檔，較去年底約增加 5%。併購案源管線處於歷史新高水準。

Still, as Chris mentioned, given uncertain market conditions, we're planning for second-quarter investment banking fees to be in the $175 million to $180 million range, with upside if geopolitical and other macro risks subside. We continue to feel very comfortable that investment banking fees will grow mid-single digits in 2026.

不過，正如 Chris 提到的，鑑於市場狀況仍不明朗，我們規劃第二季投資銀行手續費落在 1.75 億至 1.80 億美元區間；若地緣政治及其他總體風險緩解，則仍有上行空間。我們仍然非常有信心，投資銀行手續費在 2026 年將以中個位數幅度成長。

Trust and investment services income also grew 13% year over year, reflecting positive net flows and higher market values. Assets under management remained stable at $70 billion. Service charges on deposit accounts and corporate service fees increased by 12% and 9% year over year, respectively. The increase in service charge was driven by growth in commercial payments, which grew fee equivalent revenue at 11%, while corporate services income was driven by higher loan commitment fees and client FX activity. Commercial mortgage servicing fees were $62 million, down $14 million year over year, largely driven by lower deposit placement fees, as well as resolutions in special servicing.

信託與投資服務收入亦年增 13%，反映淨流入為正以及市場價值上升。管理資產規模維持穩定於 700 億美元。存款帳戶服務費與企業服務費分別年增 12% 與 9%。服務費的增加主要由商業支付成長帶動，該業務的費用等值收入成長 11%；而企業服務收入則由較高的貸款承諾費以及客戶外匯（FX）活動所驅動。商用不動產抵押貸款服務費為 6,200 萬美元，年減 1,400 萬美元，主要因存款配置費下降，以及特殊服務案件的結案處理所致。

At quarter-end, we were named primary or special servicer on approximately $720 billion of CRE loans, of which about $265 billion is special servicing. Active special servicing third-party assets were $10 billion, about half in office. This is down from $12 billion a year ago as the commercial real estate industry continues to recover. We continue to expect commercial mortgage servicing fees to run about $50 million to $60 million per quarter for the remainder of the year.

截至季末，我們被指定為約 7,200 億美元商用不動產（CRE）貸款的主要或特殊服務機構，其中約 2,650 億美元屬於特殊服務。正在進行中的第三方特殊服務資產為 100 億美元，約一半為辦公室類。相較一年前的 120 億美元有所下降，因商用不動產產業持續復甦。我們仍預期今年剩餘期間，商用不動產抵押貸款服務費每季約為 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。

On slide 10, first-quarter non-interest expenses of $1.2 billion improved 6% sequentially when excluding the prior quarter's FDIC special assessment and increased 4% year over year. Compared to the year ago quarter, the increase was driven by higher personnel expenses related to our frontline banker hiring, incentive compensation associated with the strong fee performance, and higher benefits costs.

請看第 10 頁投影片，第一季非利息費用為 12 億美元；若排除前一季的 FDIC 特別評估費，則較前季改善 6%，並年增 4%。與去年同期相比，增加主要來自人員費用上升（與我們前線銀行家招募相關）、因手續費表現強勁而增加的獎酬，以及福利成本上升。

Sequentially, expenses declined due to lower incentive compensation, seasonally lower professional fees and marketing expenses, and fewer days in the quarter. Expenses are expected to increase through the balance of the year, reflecting our ongoing investments in people and technology, incentive compensation associated with expected continued revenue momentum, and other seasonal impacts. We continue to feel very comfortable with our full-year expense growth guide of 3% to 4%.

就季比而言，費用下降係因獎酬降低、專業服務費與行銷費用的季節性下降，以及本季天數較少。預期費用在今年剩餘期間將逐步增加，反映我們持續在人員與科技上的投資、與預期收入動能延續相關的獎酬，以及其他季節性影響。我們仍然非常有信心維持全年費用成長 3% 至 4% 的指引。

Turning to the next slide, credit quality remained solid. Net charge-offs were $101 million, down 3% sequentially, and were an annualized 38 basis points of average loans. Non-performing assets increased by $65 million sequentially back to third quarter 2025 levels and remained below historical levels at 63 basis points. The increase was driven by two credits in utilities and multifamily real estate industries, respectively. We're confident we will resolve these credits in the coming quarters, and we are well reserved against them today. Lastly, criticized loans declined by $3 million sequentially.

接著看下一頁，資產品質仍然穩健。淨沖銷為 1.01 億美元，季減 3%，年化後相當於平均放款的 38 個基點。不良資產季增 6,500 萬美元，回到 2025 年第三季水準，且仍低於歷史水準，為 63 個基點。增加主要來自兩筆授信，分別位於公用事業與多戶住宅不動產產業。我們有信心在未來幾季解決這些授信案，且目前已提列充足準備。最後，受評為「需關注」的貸款（criticized loans）季減 300 萬美元。

Moving to slide 12. Our CET1 ratio was 11.4% and our marked CET1 ratio was 10% at quarter-end. Our preliminary assessment of the updated Basel III endgame proposal is that our risk-weighted assets would decline by approximately 9% under the revised standardized approach, resulting in a 100-basis-point-plus improvement to our marked CET1 ratio.

接著看第 12 頁。截至季末，我們的普通股權一級資本（CET1）比率為 11.4%，而按市值調整後的 CET1 比率為 10%。我們對更新後的巴塞爾協議 III 終局（Basel III endgame）提案之初步評估為：在修訂後的標準法下，我們的風險加權資產（RWA）將下降約 9%，使按市值調整後的 CET1 比率改善超過 100 個基點。

RWA relief would come primarily from lower risk weights associated with off-balance sheet commercial loan commitments, residential mortgages, and corporate loans. As we wait for rules to be finalized, we'll continue to manage our marked CET1 ratio in the 9.5% to 10% range under current RWA methodology.

RWA 的減輕主要來自與表外商業貸款承諾、住宅抵押貸款及企業貸款相關的風險權數降低。在等待規則定案期間，我們將在現行 RWA 計算方法下，持續把按市值調整後的 CET1 比率管理在 9.5% 至 10% 的區間。

We expect to repurchase at least $300 million of our shares per quarter for the balance of the year, which implies at least $1.3 billion for the full year. We remain focused on supporting our clients and growing our business and, as Chris mentioned, delivering a return of capital and a return on capital for our shareholders.

我們預期今年剩餘期間每季至少回購 3 億美元自家股票，意味著全年至少 13 億美元。我們仍專注於支持客戶並擴大業務；同時，如 Chris 所提到的，為股東帶來資本回饋以及資本報酬。

Moving to slide 13, we're positively revising our 2026 guidance given the strong start to the year. We now expect full-year net interest income growth of 9% to 10%, compared to our prior guide of 8% to 10%. We now also expect to exit the year with a net interest margin of approximately 3.05% on a stable earning asset base relative to the first quarter. This guidance holds under a fairly broad range of interest rate scenarios. As of today, our base case assumes no cuts this year.

接著看第 13 頁，鑑於今年開局強勁，我們正面上修 2026 年指引。我們目前預期全年淨利息收入成長 9% 至 10%，高於先前指引的 8% 至 10%。我們也預期在相對第一季穩定的生息資產基礎下，年底淨利息收益率（NIM）約為 3.05%。此指引在相當廣泛的利率情境下皆成立。截至今日，我們的基本情境假設今年不降息。

We also improved our loan guidance. Average loans are expected to increase 2% to 4%, compared to our previous guidance of 1% to 2%, and average commercial loans are now expected to grow 6% to 8% this year. All of our other guidance remains unchanged, although, as you would expect, we continue to monitor macro conditions closely. In summary, subject to the usual macro caveats, we're confident that we will deliver another year of outsized organic revenue and earnings growth for our shareholders.

我們也上修放款指引。平均放款預期成長 2% 至 4%，高於先前指引的 1% 至 2%；而平均商業放款目前預期今年成長 6% 至 8%。我們其他各項指引維持不變；不過如各位所預期，我們仍將密切關注總體環境。總結而言，在一般的總體不確定性前提下，我們有信心將再度為股東帶來高於常態的有機收入與獲利成長。

With that, I would like to now turn the call back to the operator to provide instructions for the Q&A session. Operator?

接下來，我想把電話交回給接線員，請其提供問答環節的說明。接線員？

(Operator Instructions) Erika Najarian, UBS.

（接線員說明）Erika Najarian，瑞銀（UBS）。

Thank you and good morning. The first one is for you, Chris. Given the strength that you showed this quarter on both lending and fees, maybe talk a little bit about client sentiment and how they're balancing sort of the geopolitical volatility with some of the positive on the ground, Big Beautiful Bill stimulus and everything else that's happening domestically.

謝謝，早安。第一個問題想請教你，Chris。鑑於你們本季在放款與手續費兩方面展現的強勁表現，能否談談客戶情緒，以及他們如何在地緣政治波動與一些本土的正面因素（例如「Big Beautiful Bill」刺激方案與其他國內動態）之間取得平衡？

And additionally, thank you so much for the NDFI, in quotes, breakdown. I'm wondering what you're seeing in terms of sponsor activity, what you're seeing in terms of your private credit clients. And one of your peers, David Solomon, mentioned actually in the private credit space widening spreads. I'm wondering if KeyCorp is seeing something similar.

另外，也非常感謝你們提供所謂 NDFI（加引號）的拆解。我想了解你們看到的贊助方（sponsor）活動情況，以及你們的私募信貸客戶動態。你們的一位同業 David Solomon 提到，私募信貸領域的利差其實正在擴大。我想請問 KeyCorp 是否也看到類似情況。

Well, sure. And good morning, Erika. Let me start, if I could, with the consumer, because that's a little less complicated. The consumer is in great shape. If you look at all of our credit metrics, if you look at the fact that these tax refunds from the Big Beautiful Bill will exceed what they did last year, if you look at spending, spending is up kind of mid-single digits year over year. Online spending is up maybe double digits.

好的，當然。早安，Erika。如果可以的話，我先從消費者談起，因為這部分比較不複雜。消費者狀況非常好。如果你看我們所有的信用指標、看「Big Beautiful Bill」帶來的退稅金額將高於去年、再看支出表現，支出年增大約在中個位數。線上支出可能是雙位數成長。

The other thing that's interesting with our client base is the wealth effect. And I think this is something that's been underreported. So we're talking -- when we talk about mass affluent, we're talking about our customers with between $250,000 and $2 million to invest. 18 months ago, we thought that universe was 1 million of our 3.5 million customers. We went back and redid it based on market activity. We now believe it to be 1.15 million, so up 15%. So on the consumer side, the consumer actually -- our consumer is in good shape.

我們客群另一個有趣的現象是財富效應。我認為這點被低估了。因此我們在談——當我們談到「大眾富裕」（mass affluent）時，指的是可投資資產介於 25 萬至 200 萬美元的客戶。18 個月前，我們認為在 350 萬名客戶中，這個族群約有 100 萬人。我們根據市場活動回頭重新估算。我們現在認為約為 115 萬人，增加了 15%。所以在消費者端，消費者——我們的消費者其實狀況良好。

Now, on the commercial side, there's obviously some puts and takes. You saw for the first time, as Clark detailed, our utilization went up, which is a good thing. We're starting to see people actually invest more in CapEx with some of the benefits from the Big Beautiful Bill that you pointed out.

現在，在商業端，顯然有一些利弊權衡。如 Clark 所詳述，你們第一次看到我們的產能利用率上升，這是好事。我們開始看到人們實際上增加資本支出（CapEx）投資，部分原因是你提到的《大而美法案》（Big Beautiful Bill）所帶來的一些好處。

And then, of course, the flip side of it is just the macro uncertainty. And so what we did see in the quarter is some people pulled some deals forward. So think about -- if you were going to go to the investment-grade credit markets and the activity started, you probably pulled that forward. Conversely, on M&A deals, what's happening is they're not going away, but people are kind of slow playing it, doing a lot of due diligence because there's so much volatility kind of day to day, week to week.

當然，另一方面就是宏觀不確定性。因此，我們在本季確實看到有些人把一些交易提前了。所以想像一下——如果你原本要去投資級信貸市場融資，而市場活動已經啟動，你可能就把它提前了。相反地，在併購（M&A）交易方面，情況是交易並沒有消失，但大家有點放慢節奏，做大量盡職調查，因為日復一日、週復一週的波動實在太大。

And so we sort of saw both sides of that. Having said that, as we said earlier, our pipelines remain very strong. So I'm very optimistic about kind of where we are from our commercial businesses, but obviously, it's not without impact from the near-term volatility.

所以我們某種程度上兩邊的情況都看到了。話雖如此，正如我們先前所說，我們的業務管線仍然非常強勁。因此，對於我們商業業務目前所處的位置我非常樂觀，但顯然短期波動仍會帶來影響。

Second part of your question as it relates to NDFI is a very great question because this is kind of a developing area. And so we've seen a steady march down in terms of spreads for a long time because there's just been too much capacity in the market with respect to commercial loans. And what we're seeing just as of late is affirming there. And part of affirming of that is that some of the private credit players, obviously, in light of redemptions, are not in the market the way they have been.

你問題的第二部分，關於 NDFI，是個非常好的問題，因為這算是一個正在發展中的領域。我們長期以來看到利差穩步下行，因為就商業貸款而言，市場產能過剩。而我們最近看到的情況也在印證這一點。其中一部分原因是，一些私募信貸（private credit）參與者，顯然因為贖回（redemptions），不像過去那樣活躍於市場。

And I actually think as you look forward, there's a lot of discussion around private credit. I personally don't think there's a credit problem, but these redemptions are real, and that if you have a bunch of redemption requests, the first thing you do is stop shoveling it out the front door, which I think will give the banks in some instances an opportunity to reintermediate some of those activities. So that's kind of a -- that's my perspective.

而且我認為，展望未來，市場對私募信貸有很多討論。我個人不認為存在信貸問題，但這些贖回確實存在；如果你收到一堆贖回要求，你做的第一件事就是停止把資金往前門繼續投放，我認為這在某些情況下會給銀行一個機會，重新中介（reintermediate）其中一些活動。所以這就是——這是我的看法。

Anything else on that, Erika? Operator, we'll take the next question.

Erika，還有其他要補充的嗎？接線員，我們請下一個問題。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous.

Ken Usdin，Autonomous。

Thanks a lot. Appreciate it. I want to ask a question on deposits. I know the first quarter is seasonal and it has a decline in brokered CDs. Just wondering how you think that deposits will trend from here and if you think you're getting close to the bottom of that NIB mix, which I know was part of that seasonality in the first quarter. Thanks.

非常感謝。感謝。我想問一個關於存款的問題。我知道第一季有季節性因素，而且經紀存單（brokered CDs）會下降。想請教你們認為存款接下來會如何走勢，以及你們是否覺得快接近那個 NIB 組合的底部，我知道第一季的季節性因素也影響了這一點。謝謝。

Yeah. Hey, Ken. It's Clark. Thanks for the question.

好的。嗨，Ken。我是 Clark。謝謝你的問題。

So you hit on the, I think, the bigger drivers, broker deposits coming out at about $1.6 billion seasonal decline. So first, I would say, as we did decline, we are actually slightly better in the first quarter than we would have planned. So I think just consistent with our expectations.

你提到我認為較大的驅動因素：經紀存款因季節性因素流出約 16 億美元。所以首先我要說的是，雖然確實下降，但我們第一季的表現其實比原先規劃稍微好一些。因此我認為這與我們的預期一致。

On NIB, you did see that come down on a reported basis. I think if you put our hybrids in there, we're stable. So those continue to be a very good vehicle to work with commercial clients and maintain those high-quality operating deposits. And I think, as usual, we would expect to trough kind of mid-May and then build up through the quarter. So I'd say first quarter to second quarter average balances will be stable to maybe slightly up, but I'd expect ending balances June 30 to be higher and those that continue to rise through the course of the year.

至於 NIB，你確實看到在申報口徑下有所下降。我認為如果把我們的混合型產品（hybrids）納入，則是穩定的。因此，這些產品仍然是與商業客戶合作、維持高品質營運性存款的非常好工具。而且我認為一如往常，我們預期大概在 5 月中旬觸底，然後在本季內回升。所以我會說，第一季到第二季的平均餘額將持平或小幅上升，但我預期 6 月 30 日的期末餘額會更高，並且在今年接下來的時間持續上升。

So we feel very good about the liquidity we have if loan growth continues or picks up. We have low loan-to-deposit ratio on a relative basis. We've brought our market funds down, so we have a lot of third-party capacity if we need it. And then we have great access to client excess deposits and new operating deposits. So if we need to fund more loan growth, that's a high-class problem that we feel very confident about.

因此，如果貸款成長持續或加速，我們對目前的流動性狀況感到非常放心。相對而言，我們的貸存比偏低。我們已降低市場資金（market funds），所以如果需要，我們有大量第三方資金容量。此外，我們也能很好地取得客戶的超額存款以及新的營運性存款。所以如果我們需要為更多的貸款成長提供資金，那是一個高級的煩惱（high-class problem），我們對此非常有信心。

And as a follow-up, on the cost side, you put in the slides about the cumulative down beta has been great at 56%. With rate cuts presumably on hold for a while, can you just talk about deposit competition? How much room do you have, if any, to continue to bring down deposit costs and just the environment out there across the businesses for deposit taking? Thank you.

追問一下，在成本方面，你們在投影片中提到累計下行 beta 表現很好，為 56%。在降息可能暫停一段時間的情況下，能否談談存款競爭？你們還有多少空間（如果有的話）可以繼續降低存款成本？以及在各業務線吸收存款方面，外部環境如何？謝謝。

Yeah, sure. So I think you hit it with no cuts, and that is our base case, we'd expect deposit pricing in general to sort of stabilize. Now, if loan growth really kicked in, some of the dynamics Chris talked about, if banks really step back in, we would expect some intensification of that deposit pricing.

好的，當然。我想你說得對：在沒有降息的情況下——這也是我們的基本情境——我們預期整體存款定價會趨於穩定。不過，如果貸款成長真的啟動，出現 Chris 提到的一些動態、銀行真的重新積極進場，我們預期存款定價競爭會加劇。

Right now, our view is that those will be fairly stable. Our deposit price will be fairly stable at this point. And as I just outlined, we will get back some balances on things like NIB and others. So I think we have some puts and takes. We will continue to drive down broker deposits through the first half. But if we needed more funding and we had to dip into that market to not hit more painful pricing across the book, we can do that.

目前我們的看法是，這些將會相當穩定。我們的存款價格在此時點也會相當穩定。而且如我剛才所說，我們會在像 NIB 等項目上拿回一些餘額。所以我認為我們有一些利弊權衡。我們會在上半年持續降低經紀存款。但如果我們需要更多資金，而必須動用那個市場，以避免在整體存款組合上承受更痛的定價，我們也可以這麼做。

So I think we continue to have a lot of avenues at our disposal. I think if there were cuts, our deposit betas will probably drop a little bit in-year, just given the timing component of that. Again, our base case is stable, and I think we can hold serve in the mid-50s as we move forward. But that's all premised on the loan growth we're guiding to. So if that came in stronger, we might see a little bit of a dip there. But I think we'd make that trade-off as long as it's good quality relationship growth.

所以我認為我們仍有很多可運用的途徑。我認為如果真的降息，我們的存款 beta 在當年度可能會稍微下降一些，主要是因為時點因素。再次強調，我們的基本情境是穩定，我認為往前走我們可以把它維持在 50% 中段。但這一切都建立在我們所指引的貸款成長之上。所以如果貸款成長更強，我們可能會看到那裡稍微下滑一點。但只要是高品質的關係型成長，我想我們會願意做這個取捨。

Okay. Thanks, Clark.

好的。謝謝，Clark。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

John Pancari，Evercore ISI。

Good morning. I guess just similarly on the competitive front on the lending side, one or two of your peers have cited a bit more aggressiveness out there on the lending front, particularly on structure for the most part, but also to a degree on pricing. Are you seeing this showing up in your markets? And maybe if you can talk about how it's influenced loan spreads that you're seeing as you're pricing new originations. Thanks.

早安。我想同樣在放貸端的競爭面上，你們有一兩家同業提到，市場上在放貸方面更具侵略性了一些，主要是在結構條件上，但某種程度上也反映在定價上。你們在你們的市場也有看到這種情況嗎？另外，能否談談這如何影響你們在新承作（new originations）定價時所看到的貸款利差？謝謝。

Yeah. John, so the phenomenon you're talking about has definitely been a prevailing phenomenon for some time. What I was describing in my answer to Erika is sort of real time, some adjustment that we're seeing, but there's no question there's been excess capacity for some time.

是的。John，你所談到的現象，確實在一段時間以來一直是相當普遍的現象。我在回答Erika時所描述的，比較像是即時的、我們正在看到的一些調整，但毫無疑問，過剩產能已經存在一段時間了。

And I've talked about this at length that a properly graded commercial loan can't return its cost of capital. And there's been just a constant pressure on spreads and on structure. I think we may be, and I emphasize the word may, at an inflection point on that trend.

而且我也長篇談過，一筆適當風險分級的商業貸款，無法賺回其資本成本。利差與交易結構一直承受持續性的壓力。我認為我們可能——我強調「可能」——正處於這個趨勢的拐點。

And just from a risk management perspective, again, we have not adjusted any of our credit boxes or underwriting standards. We are still maintaining, again, the same standards that we've always had.

另外，從風險管理的角度來看，再次強調，我們沒有調整任何授信框架或承作標準。我們仍然維持——再次強調——一如既往的相同標準。

Yeah. Mo, I think that's a good point. I mean, we never give on structure. Obviously, it's a market out there, and we price where we need to price. The advantage we have, John, is we can do a lot of other things for these clients, whether it's payments, whether it's strategic advice, hedging, et cetera. That's how we run our business.

是的。Mo，我覺得這點說得很好。我的意思是，我們在結構上從不讓步。當然，市場就在那裡，我們會在需要的水準上定價。John，我們的優勢在於，我們能為這些客戶做很多其他事情，不論是支付、策略建議、避險等等。這就是我們經營業務的方式。

And frankly, if the capital markets have a better deal, we'll place it.

坦白說，如果資本市場能提供更好的條件，我們就會把案子放到那裡去做。

Yeah. As we did 80% of the time this last quarter.

是的。就像我們在上一季有80%的時間都是這麼做的。

Got it. Okay, very helpful. Thank you. And then you gave some pretty good color here on the capital front in terms of buyback expectations. I guess just if you could just remind us of your allocation priorities there and if anything could impact that pace of buyback. And how do you think about any potential inorganic opportunities? Thanks.

了解。好，非常有幫助。謝謝。另外，你在資本面、特別是回購預期方面，提供了相當不錯的補充說明。我想請你再提醒一下你們在資本配置上的優先順序，以及有哪些因素可能影響回購的節奏。還有，你們如何看待任何潛在的外生成長（inorganic）機會？謝謝。

So I mean, obviously what could impact it more than anything is if we had a severe macroeconomic downturn and started having credit losses. We do not see that. We feel really good about our credit book.

所以，我的意思是，最可能影響回購的因素，莫過於若出現嚴重的總體經濟下行，並開始出現信用損失。我們沒有看到那種情況。我們對我們的信貸組合感覺非常好。

Our capital priorities remain unchanged. It's first to support the growth of our clients, which we were pleased to see that we got in this last quarter. The next thing is to invest in our business. And we always talk about -- when we talk about investing in our business, it's really people and it's technology. And so we'll continue to invest heavily in our business.

我們的資本優先順序維持不變。第一是支持客戶成長；我們也很高興看到上一季確實做到了。第二是投資我們的業務。而我們一直說——當我們談投資業務時——主要就是人員與科技。因此我們會持續大力投資我們的業務。

We also, as I mentioned in my remarks, will continue to hire a lot of individual bankers. We'll hire groups of bankers, and opportunistically, we would look at small acquisitions of kind of boutique-type operations, which are really just an extension of hiring a group of people.

另外，正如我在談話中提到的，我們也會持續聘用大量個別銀行家。我們也會聘用整組的銀行家團隊，並且在合適時機，會考慮收購一些小型、精品型的業務，這本質上就是把一群人招進來的延伸。

The next priority, of course, is to pay our dividend, which we don't talk about a lot, but it's $0.205 a share, which is not inconsequential as you look at the yield. And then lastly, repurchase our shares. And we said earlier in our comments, John, we plan to repurchase $1.3 billion worth of stock in the year.

接下來的優先事項，當然是支付股利；我們不常談這個，但每股是0.205美元，從殖利率角度來看，這並非無足輕重。最後才是回購我們的股票。而且我們先前在評論中也說過，John，我們計畫今年回購13億美元的股票。

Great. Thank you, Chris. Appreciate it.

很好。謝謝你，Chris。感謝。

Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

Ryan Nash，高盛。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. So Chris, if I look at the high end of the loan growth guidance, it doesn't imply that much growth from the 1Q end-of-period levels. Now, I know you mentioned some moving pieces in one of your other answers, some syndications that could be coming in 2Q. But I'm curious on the drivers of loan growth from here, what will drive the slowdown. And can there be some upside from current expectations? Thank you.

嗨。各位早安。Chris，如果我看貸款成長指引的上緣，從第一季期末水準往後推，似乎並不代表會有太多成長。我知道你在其他回答中提到一些變動因素，像是第二季可能會有一些聯貸案進來。但我想了解，從現在開始貸款成長的驅動因素是什麼、什麼會導致放緩。以及相較目前預期，是否可能有一些上行空間？謝謝。

Thanks for the question. I'll start with -- I guess what's the premise of your question is the loan guide conservative in that if we didn't book a whole bunch of more loans, we'll basically grow at 6% for the year. And I'd say there probably is some appropriate conservatism in the number, given the macro uncertainty out there. But let me kind of give you the pieces and parts.

謝謝你的問題。我先從——我想你問題的前提是：貸款指引是否偏保守，因為即使我們不再新增大量放款，全年基本上也會成長6%。我會說，考量外部的總體不確定性，這個數字可能確實帶有一些合理的保守性。但我來把各個構成因素拆解一下。

Utilization actually for the first time in a long time spiked up. I wouldn't necessarily imagine that that will continue to spike up. We waited a long time for it to start moving. We do have broad-based growth across all geographies and industries, which should play forward. I mentioned in my remarks that we have a 20% increase in our backlog from year-end. Obviously, we would expect some of that to, in fact, pull through. Utilities and power continue to be an area of huge opportunity when you think about both renewables and the massive buildout that's required for GenAI.

動用率（utilization）其實是很久以來第一次明顯跳升。我不一定會認為它會持續再跳升。我們等了很久才看到它開始動起來。我們在所有地區與各產業都有廣泛的成長，這應該會延續。我在談話中提到，我們的待辦量（backlog）相較去年底增加了20%。很明顯，我們預期其中一部分確實會轉化落地。公用事業與電力仍然是巨大的機會領域，因為不論是再生能源，或是為了GenAI所需的大規模建置。

Then, there's two other areas where we're starting to see some traction. One is healthcare. We're starting to see consolidation, which is necessary by the way in the healthcare industry. And then lastly, for the first time in a long time, we're starting to see this backlog of commercial real estate transactional activity. We've been refinancing a lot of commercial real estate. But what we're starting to see is people are starting to trade as the bid and the ask comes in and everybody sort of gets comfortable that we're going to be in this kind of an interest rate range for a while.

接著，還有兩個領域我們開始看到一些進展。第一是醫療保健。我們開始看到整併，而順帶一提，醫療保健產業確實需要整併。最後，這也是很久以來第一次，我們開始看到商用不動產交易活動的待辦量。我們一直在做很多商用不動產的再融資。但我們開始看到的是，隨著買方出價與賣方要價逐漸收斂、大家也逐步接受我們可能會在這樣的利率區間維持一段時間，人們開始進行交易。

So that's kind of the -- that's the puts and -- and then also, I just would remind you, we're going to continue to run off $500 million to $600 million of commercial residential mortgages per quarter. So that's kind of the puts and takes, Ryan.

所以這大概就是——這就是利多與利空的拉鋸——另外我也提醒你，我們每季仍會讓5億到6億美元的商用住宅房貸自然到期/縮減（run off）。所以這就是各項增減因素，Ryan。

Got you. Super helpful, Chris. And maybe as a follow-up to something that was talked about before, within the investment banking business, if I look at the mid-single-digit guide, it implies low-single-digit growth for the remainder of the year. And I feel like coming into the year, you were upbeat on the potential return of M&A to drive upside. Historically, it's been a bigger part of your business.

了解。非常有幫助，Chris。另外，作為對先前提到內容的追問，在投資銀行業務方面，如果我看你們中個位數（mid-single-digit）的指引，代表今年剩餘期間大概是低個位數（low-single-digit）的成長。而我覺得年初時，你對併購（M&A）回溫、帶動上行是偏樂觀的。歷史上，這也是你們業務中更大的一部分。

So it sounds like from your comments earlier that M&A hasn't been as robust as you would have expected. But are there other parts of the business that are trailing? And what will we need to see for some parts of the business to begin to outperform expectations? Thank you.

所以聽起來，從你先前的評論來看，併購並沒有像你預期的那麼強勁。但是否還有其他業務板塊落後？以及我們需要看到什麼，才能讓某些業務板塊開始優於預期？謝謝。

Sure. So with respect to M&A, what's interesting about M&A, Ryan, is there's been a lot of headline numbers. And as you well know, the G-SIBs have reported some incredible numbers with respect to advisory. I think deal volumes in total are up like 46%. Transaction volumes, however, are down 26%. And so you put all that together, and we're still waiting for this huge surge of middle market M&A activity to come through.

當然。所以就併購（M&A）而言，Ryan，併購有趣之處在於，市場上有很多頭條數字。而且如你所知，全球系統重要性銀行（G-SIBs）在顧問業務方面公布了一些令人難以置信的數字。我認為整體交易金額大概上升了46%。但交易筆數則下降了26%。把這些放在一起看，我們仍在等待中型市場併購活動出現一波巨大的激增。

And so that is something that we're keeping a close eye on. Those transactions are binary. What we're guiding to right now is 5% to 6% growth year over year. So we did about $780 million last year. So at the middle of the range, that'd be something like $825 million off of a record year last year.

因此這是我們密切關注的事情。那些交易具有二元性（要嘛發生、要嘛不發生）。我們目前給出的指引是年增5%到6%。所以我們去年大約做了7.8億美元。以區間中值來看，大概會是8.25億美元，是在去年創紀錄的一年之上再成長。

So I feel really good about the business. But admittedly, some of the -- while we have record backlogs, we're not seeing as much come out of the pipeline right now as we would hope. I think when some of the geopolitical things are resolved, I think it'll be a little better environment for that.

所以我對這項業務感覺非常好。但坦白說，雖然我們的在手訂單（backlog）創新高，但目前從案源管道（pipeline）轉出來的量，沒有我們希望看到的那麼多。我認為當一些地緣政治因素得到解決後，環境會稍微更有利一些。

Thanks for your question, Ryan.

謝謝你的提問，Ryan。

Well, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

Scott Siefers，Piper Sandler。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to return for a moment to the capital discussion. It seems like there really should be good capital management runway for a while, especially if you elect to put to work some of the additional excess you'd have should the Fed's NPRs pass as proposed.

各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想稍微回到資本的討論。看起來資本管理應該還有一段不錯的跑道，尤其是如果聯準會（Fed）的NPR（擬議規則通知）如提案所述通過，而你們選擇把因此增加的額外超額資本投入運用的話。

I guess I'm curious to hear how you would decide when and how aggressively to deploy that additional excess if those proposals, in particular, do advance. And what other considerations are there, whether it's ratings agencies, investor expectations, et cetera, just as you think about the appropriate capital levels to sort of land on?

我想知道的是，如果那些提案（特別是其中一些）確實推進，你們會如何決定何時、以及以多積極的程度去部署那部分額外超額資本。另外，在思考適當的資本水位要落在哪裡時，還有哪些其他考量，例如信評機構、投資人期待等等？

Hey, Scott. It's Clark. Thanks for the question.

嗨，Scott。我是Clark。謝謝你的問題。

So one, we guided on the fourth-quarter call that we try to get to 10% marked by the end of the year. We actually arrived there a few quarters early in this quarter. So we feel very comfortable there and would feel comfortable over the course of the year dipping into that 9.5% to 10%, and that's under the current regime. So again, no issues there.

第一點，我們在第四季電話會議的指引是，目標在年底前把標記資本比率（marked）拉到10%。實際上我們在本季提早了幾季就達到了。所以我們對目前水位非常放心；在現行制度下，我們也會覺得在一年當中把比率降到9.5%到10%的區間內是可以接受的。所以再次強調，這方面沒有問題。

To the extent the NPR passes as proposed, we expect, as we said, 100-plus basis points of additional marked capital there. So I think that gives us more room to continue to both invest in growing client activities, but also to continue our share repurchase. So on the one hand, we're guiding to $1.3 billion for the year. Short of some more extreme situations, I would expect that to be more like the floor for buybacks for the year. I don't know how much more we'll go over that. We'll play that by ear. But we certainly believe over time, as we've got more capacity to lean into capital return.

如果NPR如提案所述通過，我們預期如先前所說，標記資本將額外增加100個基點以上。因此我認為這會讓我們有更大的空間，一方面持續投資以成長客戶相關活動，另一方面也能持續進行庫藏股回購。所以一方面，我們對全年給出的指引是13億美元。除非出現更極端的情況，我預期這更像是今年回購的下限。至於會高出多少，我不確定。我們會視情況而定。但我們確實相信，隨著時間推進、我們有更多能力時，會更積極地推動資本回饋。

The other point that I would just make is I don't think anybody should expect one big swing at this. I think you should expect from us thoughtful, orderly, kind of methodical capital management over time where we are sharing as much visibility as we have given conditions and kind of marching down to that range over some meaningful and manageable period of time. But we're not going to do anything dramatic in any quarter or two.

另外我想補充的是，我不認為大家應該期待我們一次就大幅調整。我認為你們應該期待我們在一段時間內以審慎、有序、偏方法論式的方式來管理資本；在既有條件下，我們會分享我們所能提供的可見度，並在一段有意義且可控的期間內逐步走向那個區間。但我們不會在一兩個季度內做任何戲劇性的動作。

Got you. Okay, perfect. Thank you. And then maybe switching gears for just a second. Appreciate the refresh and the color you guys have given on the full-year investment banking expectations. Clark, was hoping maybe you could kind of provide some thoughts on how you see some of the other key areas, whether it's wealth payments, some of those other focus areas projecting through the year.

了解。好，完美。謝謝。那再換個話題一下。感謝你們更新並提供對全年投資銀行業務展望的補充說明。Clark，我希望你能談談你如何看待其他幾個關鍵領域，例如財富管理、支付，以及其他一些重點領域在今年的走勢。

Sure. So one, as Chris noted, we continue to get gains in our wealth business. So to the extent the market cooperates, we'd expect to see investment management fees continue to grow, and I think that's a mid- to high-single-digit number for the year. So that's tracking pretty well, even despite a little bit of volatility in the first quarter.

當然。第一，如Chris所提到，我們的財富管理業務持續取得市占成長。因此只要市場配合，我們預期資產管理費（investment management fees）會持續成長，我認為全年會是中到高個位數的增幅。即使第一季有些波動，目前追蹤下來仍相當不錯。

Our payments business, particularly on a fee equivalent revenue which, as you know, Scott, is the gross fees continues to be very strong. If you unpacked, for example, what happened in the quarter on deposit service charges, those numbers would have been mid-teens year over year. So we continue to get really good activity from our payments team, either selling additional services into existing clients or anchoring with new clients as they come in. No reason to think that that's going to stop.

我們的支付業務，特別是以費用等值收入（fee equivalent revenue）來看——如你所知，Scott，這是指總費用（gross fees）——仍然非常強勁。例如若你拆解本季存款服務費（deposit service charges）的表現，年增會落在十幾%的中段。因此我們的支付團隊持續帶來非常好的動能，不論是向既有客戶加售更多服務，或是在新客戶導入時成為其主要合作夥伴。沒有理由認為這會停止。

We continue to add new capabilities in payments, whether it's in our portal, our information reporting, or things like embedded banking. I think all of those are on very good trajectories, and we continue to expect to see those grow. So that's, again, on a gross number, kind of low-single digits on a net number high -- low-double digits on a net number high-single digits. Sorry for that confusion there.

我們也持續在支付領域增加新能力，不論是在我們的入口網站（portal）、資訊報表（information reporting），或是像嵌入式銀行（embedded banking）這類項目。我認為這些都在非常好的成長軌道上，我們也持續預期它們會成長。所以這部分——再說一次——以總額來看大概是低個位數；以淨額來看是高……呃，淨額是低雙位數、淨額是高個位數。抱歉，這裡我講得有點混亂。

And then corporate services, which is really FX and derivatives and other hedging, so the oil volatility has created some tailwinds there. If that settles in, derivatives tends to follow with loan growth. So that's been very positive. And we've seen some good traction in FX as well. So I think all of those categories continue to look up and have been consistently strong.

接著是企業服務（corporate services），主要是外匯（FX）與衍生性商品及其他避險；因此油價波動在這裡帶來了一些順風。如果波動趨於穩定，衍生性商品通常會隨著放款成長而走。所以這一直非常正面。我們在外匯方面也看到一些不錯的進展。因此我認為這些類別都持續向上，且一直維持穩健。

The one place that we called out in the fourth-quarter call and will continue to be year over year down, but that is not a reflection of the quality of the business, is our commercial real estate servicing business. And again, that's a function of advance rates coming down, clients paying us with deposits versus fees, and some recovery in the industry that causes special servicing and other resolutions to likely be down year over year. So again, nothing negative to say about that business. That's just the market trends that are affecting it right now.

我們在第四季電話會議中特別點名、而且今年仍會呈現年減的一個地方——但這並不反映業務品質——是我們的商用不動產（commercial real estate）服務（servicing）業務。同樣地，這是因為墊款比率（advance rates）下降、客戶用存款而非費用來支付我們，以及產業出現一些復甦，使得特殊服務（special servicing）與其他處置解決方案可能會年減。所以再次強調，這項業務本身沒有任何負面之處。只是目前影響它的市場趨勢如此。

So in summary, expenses and fees, we expect to be relatively close. We'd like to be a little bit better on fees, but we're really looking at reported fees to be, again, pretty consistent with expense growth over the course of the year and then adjusted fees being in that mid-single-digit range and priority fee basis, high-single digit.

總結來說，在費用與支出方面，我們預期兩者會相對接近。我們希望費用表現能再好一點，但我們主要的看法是：今年一整年，報表口徑的費用（reported fees）大致會與支出成長相當一致；而調整後費用（adjusted fees）會落在中個位數區間；以優先費用（priority fee）口徑則是高個位數。

Excellent. All right, good. Thank you very much.

太好了。好，沒問題。非常感謝。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

Mike Mayo，富國銀行。

Hi. Perhaps you've already answered part of the question about your investment banking and debt placement business. And I know you've built that business, big organic grower, but when you said you're looking for mid-single-digit growth this year, that's so exciting, waiting this long for capital markets to come back. I know it's been skewed toward the large mergers, and you're saying it's not really back yet. And so I guess that mid-single-digit guide, is that just like what it is? Or is that what it is given your thoughts that activity will be delayed maybe until next year? Thank you.

嗨。或許你已經回答了部分關於你們投資銀行與債務承銷/配售業務的問題。我也知道你們把這塊業務做起來了，主要靠內生成長；但當你說今年預期中個位數成長時，這真的令人振奮，畢竟等了這麼久才等到資本市場回來。我知道目前偏向大型併購，而你也說其實還不算真正回來。所以我想問，這個中個位數的指引，是不是就只是反映現況？還是說，這是在你認為活動可能要延後、也許要到明年才會起來的前提下所給的數字？謝謝。

Well, first of all, good morning, Mike. That's what it is based on where we are right now in the market. I do take a lot of comfort in that our first quarter was a record. It was a record after last first quarter was a record. Last year was our second best. Our pipelines are at record levels.

首先，早安，Mike。這就是基於我們目前在市場上的位置所看到的情況。我很有信心的一點是，我們第一季創下紀錄。而且是在去年第一季也創紀錄之後再創紀錄。去年是我們歷來第二好的一年。我們的案源管線處於歷史高位。

If we could get some stability out there in terms of rates and in terms of people's perspective going forward, I think there's a huge opportunity here. But right now, as we look at it, what we're comfortable with is guiding 5% to 6%, understanding that the business has a lot of momentum.

如果在利率以及人們對未來的看法上能夠出現一些穩定性，我認為這裡有很大的機會。但就目前我們的觀察，我們比較有把握給出5%到6%的指引，同時也理解這項業務動能很強。

What do you think the difference is for the very large mergers? And what we've heard from the biggest banks is that dereg and pent-up demand and still very high stock prices and liquidity, that's all transcending the conflict. And you're seeing these pipelines get replenished and all that with more of your middle market companies where the activity is still subdued.

你認為超大型併購的差異是什麼？我們從最大的幾家銀行聽到的是，去監管、被壓抑的需求、仍然很高的股價與流動性，這些因素都凌駕於衝突之上。而你們在更多中型市場公司那邊看到的活動仍然偏弱，但管線也在補回來等等。

Yeah, so I think it's a couple of things. One, those are transactions that obviously require a lot of regulatory approval. And there's no question that regulatory approval has improved geometrically. So that's the first thing. Second thing is many of those deals are stock for stock, are a huge component of stock, and therefore don't require nearly as much financing.

對，我認為有幾個原因。第一，這些交易顯然需要大量的監管核准。而毫無疑問，監管核准的情況已經呈幾何級數地改善。這是第一點。第二點是，很多這類交易是以股票換股票，或股票占比很高，因此不需要那麼多融資。

And then the third thing is, typically, I've always noticed as you come out of a rut, and we have been in a rut in M&A, the first deals to start coming out are really large, high-quality deals. And I think that's what you've seen. And I think it will matriculate to the entire market.

第三點是，通常我一直注意到，當你從低迷期走出來——而我們在併購市場確實低迷了一段時間——最先出現的交易往往是規模很大、品質很高的交易。我認為你看到的就是這種情況。而且我認為它會逐步擴散到整個市場。

And Mike, one other just element we're seeing more consistently also on the middle market end, which as is heavily sponsored back, we're seeing more continuation vehicles as an option versus outright sales. And those obviously don't always translate to the same level of activity.

Mike，另外還有一個我們在中型市場端也更常看到的現象：由於那邊很大程度是由贊助方（私募）支持，我們看到更多把「延續型載體（continuation vehicles）」作為選項，而不是直接出售。而這些做法顯然不一定會轉化為同等程度的交易活動。

That all makes sense. Would you say that some of the same factors, though, that could drive more loan demand due to CapEx could also drive merger? In other words, to the extent that middle market CEOs become more comfortable, then they're more likely to spend for CapEx, and maybe, therefore, they're more likely to do mergers. So what's the demand for CapEx-driven financing?

這些都說得通。不過你會不會說，一些可能因資本支出（CapEx）而推動更多貸款需求的相同因素，也可能推動併購？換句話說，如果中型市場的CEO更有信心，他們更可能增加資本支出，因此也更可能進行併購。那麼由資本支出帶動的融資需求如何？

I don't think there's any question. I think as people get comfortable with the forward view and get comfortable kind of where they think rates are going to be, I think that will be an impetus to transact. And I think having gone through a bunch of market disruptions, I think once people see that sort of the coast is clear, I think there's probably a lot of people that are gearing up to go, and we have many in our backlog.

我認為毫無疑問是這樣。我想當人們對未來展望更有把握、也更能接受他們認為利率將走向何處時，這會成為促成交易的動力。而且經歷過多次市場擾動後，我認為一旦大家看到情勢大致明朗、風險消退，可能有很多人就會準備出手；我們的待辦案源中也有很多。

All right. Thank you.

好。謝謝。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，Mike。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

Manan Gosalia，摩根士丹利。

Hey. Good morning. So Chris, Clark, since you gave the ROTCE guide, NII and loan growth are trending better. You noted 100 basis points or so of benefit from Basel endgame. That's fairly sizable. I'm assuming you should be able to use some of it. Would that, I guess, all be upside as we think about the 15% or so exit ROTCE for 2027?

嗨。早安。所以Chris、Clark，既然你們給了ROTCE指引，淨利息收入（NII）和貸款成長的趨勢都更好。你們提到巴塞爾終局（Basel endgame）大概帶來100個基點左右的好處。這相當可觀。我猜你們應該能運用其中一部分。那麼，當我們看2027年約15%的期末（exit）ROTCE時，這是否都會成為上行空間？

Well, clearly, I think as the rules get finalized, we will have greater flexibility. We mentioned to the tune of, if you just look at the standard approach, 100 basis points or so. So we'll have more to say about that after the final rules come out and we make final decisions with respect to standard approach or ERBA.

嗯，顯然我認為隨著規則最終定案，我們會有更大的彈性。我們提到過，如果只看標準法（standard approach），大概是100個基點左右。所以等最終規則出來、以及我們就採用標準法或ERBA做出最終決定後，我們會再多談一些。

Got it. Okay, great. And then you noted that, I guess, the balance sheet should stay fairly flat in 2026, which would mean that the LDR moves a little bit higher. How should we think about that going into 2027? Is there still more room to take the LDR up? And as we think about deposits, and maybe some of the higher-cost deposits, at what point does it make sense from a relationship perspective and a franchise perspective to keep and pay up for them rather than let them?

了解。好，太好了。另外你提到，我想資產負債表在2026年應該會維持相對持平，這意味著貸存比（LDR）會稍微上升。那我們該如何看待進入2027年的情況？LDR還有空間再往上提高嗎？以及談到存款、可能還有一些成本較高的存款，從客戶關係與特許經營（franchise）的角度來看，到了什麼時點，保留並提高利率去留住它們會比放手更合理？

Yeah. Hey, Manan. It's Clark. So I think you hit that right. I mean, on a general basis, that last point is probably the most important here, which is, as we've talked about before, I'll just talk to commercial for the benefit of this answer. 80% of those deposits are operating accounts, and 95%, 96% of the deposits come from clients with operating deposits, meaning these are strong relationships.

對。嗨，Manan。我是Clark。我想你抓到重點了。一般來說，你最後那點可能是這裡最重要的：如同我們之前談過的，我就以商業銀行端來回答。這些存款中有80%是營運帳戶（operating accounts），而95%、96%的存款來自擁有營運存款的客戶，代表這些都是很強的客戶關係。

We know where the dollars are and we're making often name-by-name decisions month by month about where the bid is on those excess deposits and whether we want to fund with those or not. So in the first quarter, we let some of those go. We did that last year in the first half and then brought them back in the second half. I would not be surprised if that happened again this year.

我們知道資金在哪裡，也經常以逐一客戶（name-by-name）的方式，按月決定對那些超額存款的出價水準，以及我們是否要用它們來做資金來源。所以在第一季，我們讓其中一部分流失。去年上半年我們也這麼做，然後在下半年又把它們拉回來。如果今年再發生一次，我也不會意外。

And as we go forward past 2026 and we start to see some balance sheet growth, we will have the opportunity to make those calls as we do today. And my guess is if we're starting to grow the balance sheet, we will look to fund with client deposits wherever we can as long as it makes sense on the margin.

而當我們在2026年之後往前走、開始看到資產負債表成長時，我們會像今天一樣有機會做這些取捨。而我猜，如果我們開始擴張資產負債表，只要在邊際上合理，我們會盡可能以客戶存款來做資金來源。

The nice thing about those commercial deposits is they are, at some level, individual decisions and we're not sort of repricing the whole book across the board. But this is why, as I mentioned with the hybrid accounts earlier, that we've gotten real benefit out of that because we get advantageous rates there and we get deeper client relationships as we provide them with more and more payment services.

那些商業存款的好處在於，它們在某種程度上是個別決策，我們不需要把整個存款組合全面重新定價。但這也就是為什麼，如同我先前提到的混合型帳戶，我們從中獲得了實質效益，因為我們能取得更有利的利率，並且在我們提供愈來愈多支付服務的同時，也能建立更深的客戶關係。

And just to add to that, Manan, we wouldn't let these excess deposits go if we thought it put our relationship at risk. These are excess deposits with people that are very good customers of ours. As Clark said, 81% of our commercial deposits are core accounts, core operating. This goes back to our focus on primacy going back a decade. So we really have the flexibility to move those in and out as we need to.

另外補充一下，Manan，如果我們認為這會讓我們的關係面臨風險，我們不會讓這些超額存款流出。這些是來自我們非常優質客戶的超額存款。如 Clark 所說，我們 81% 的商業存款是核心帳戶、核心營運性存款。這可追溯到我們十年前就開始聚焦於「主往來銀行」策略。因此，我們確實有彈性可依需要讓這些資金進出。

And I'd say there's one last point just worth making, because we talked about, in commercial mortgage servicing, some clients paying us with deposits instead of hard fees. So we took deposits back on balance sheet in the first quarter.

我想還有最後一點值得一提，因為我們談到在商業房貸服務（commercial mortgage servicing）方面，有些客戶是用存款而不是以現金費用來支付我們。因此，我們在第一季把一些存款重新納回資產負債表。

We also then, just to manage the deposit base, took some deposits off balance sheet. And those can be brought back if we needed additional funding. So we have a fair bit of levers to fund as it grows. And we're not sitting here overly concerned, to Chris's point, about the marginal dollar funding if a quality loan is available.

同時，為了管理存款基礎，我們也把部分存款移出資產負債表。若我們需要額外資金來源，這些存款也可以再移回來。所以，隨著業務成長，我們有相當多的槓桿可以用來籌資。而且如 Chris 所說，若有優質貸款機會，我們並不會對邊際資金成本過度擔憂。

Got it. Thank you.

了解。謝謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行（Bank of America）。

Thank you. Good morning. I guess just two sort of macro-level questions, but Chris, you should have a great perspective on this. When we think about the AI data center loans that are being made right now, is it your understanding that most of that is being distributed in the capital markets? Or when we think about loan growth at the banks, is some of that being syndicated to banks and it's coming on bank balance sheets? And who knows how to think about AI two years from now and these investments, but is there risk tied to this data center spending that is being put on bank balance sheets at Key and just broadly across the industry?

謝謝。早安。我想問兩個偏宏觀層面的問題，但 Chris 你應該很有觀點。當我們思考目前正在承作的 AI 資料中心貸款時，你的理解是大多數都在資本市場被分銷嗎？或者從銀行的放款成長來看，其中有一部分是聯貸分配給銀行、並進入銀行資產負債表的嗎？而且沒有人知道兩年後 AI 與這些投資會如何發展，但在 Key 以及整體產業中，是否存在與這些資料中心支出相關、被放在銀行資產負債表上的風險？

So it's a great question. The answer is the funding for these data center buildouts are in the capital markets and also at some of the banks. And we've been in the power business for a long time. And as a consequence, I think we do it pretty well.

這是個很好的問題。答案是，這些資料中心建置的資金來源一部分在資本市場，一部分也來自一些銀行。而我們在電力相關業務領域深耕已久。因此，我認為我們做得相當好。

There's all kinds of nuances in these deals, who pays for the cost overruns, for example, et cetera, who has the right to do what under a bunch of circumstances. We feel very good about the loans that we have, but these loans are both in the capital markets and in the banking system.

這類交易有各種細微差異，例如由誰承擔超支成本等等，以及在各種情況下誰擁有哪些權利。我們對我們持有的貸款非常有信心，但這些貸款確實同時存在於資本市場與銀行體系之中。

Yeah. And Chris, I just might add that our data center exposure is fairly de minimis. We've also looked at what we call AI-adjacent type exposure and kind of work with our Board on that as well. And again, very well controlled and monitored. We're really not chasing a lot, again, these larger projects or hyperscalers. And so again, it's very well managed.

是的。Chris，我也補充一下，我們對資料中心的曝險其實相當有限。我們也檢視了我們所稱的「AI 相鄰」（AI-adjacent）類型曝險，並且也與董事會就此合作。同樣地，控制與監測都做得很好。我們並沒有去追逐很多這類大型專案或超大規模雲端業者（hyperscalers）。所以整體而言，管理得非常到位。

Got it. And just one quick follow-up, Chris, I think you talked about this. When we think about investment cycles are far longer than political cycles, are you actually seeing some element of manufacturing reshoring showing up in your footprint or across your businesses that's leading to longer-term domestic CapEx, which creates loan growth opportunities not just this year, but everything about the next two to five years?

了解。再追問一個很快的問題，Chris，我想你有提到這點。當我們想到投資循環遠比政治循環長，你是否真的看到某些製造業回流（reshoring）的跡象，已在你們的版圖或各項業務中浮現，進而帶動較長期的國內資本支出（CapEx），並創造不只是今年、而是未來兩到五年的放款成長機會？

So we're starting to see that. I could give you some specific examples of people that are -- and typically, it plays out like this. It's people expanding existing facilities in lieu of having contract manufacturers that are overseas. The other thing that we are seeing is people relocating from the Far East to Mexico and really shortening their supply lines and taking control that way. So we're starting to see it, but I wouldn't say it's the biggest driver at all of, say, loan growth. It's very early days on that front.

我們開始看到一些跡象。我可以給你一些具體例子，通常情況是這樣發展的：企業擴建既有設施，而不是繼續依賴海外的代工廠。我們也看到另一個現象：有人把產能從遠東移到墨西哥，藉此大幅縮短供應鏈並以這種方式掌握控制權。所以我們確實開始看到，但我不會說這是例如放款成長的最大驅動因素。在這方面仍屬非常早期。

Got it. Thank you.

了解。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Chiaverini, Jefferies.

David Chiaverini，Jefferies。

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about credit quality. You mentioned about the NPL increase was driven by two credits in utilities and multifamily. Are you able to point to any emerging trends by sector or geography that you're watching more closely?

嗨。謝謝讓我提問。我想問關於信用品質。你提到不良貸款（NPL）增加是由公用事業與多戶住宅兩筆授信所帶動。你們是否能指出任何你們正在更密切關注的、按產業或地理區域來看的新興趨勢？

Well, we're always looking at certain sectors as it relates to those two. When you have it kind of bumping along the bottom, they'll always be one deal or two. Neither of those do we look at as systemic in any way. We're watching a few areas as we always are, things like agriculture, things like transportation, but there's nothing that -- each of those are idiosyncratic in their nature.

我們一向會針對某些產業持續觀察，尤其是與那兩筆相關的領域。當整體水準在底部附近小幅波動時，總會有一筆或兩筆個案出現。我們不認為那兩筆在任何方面具有系統性。我們也像往常一樣關注一些領域，例如農業、運輸等，但沒有任何一項——這些都屬於個別事件（idiosyncratic）的性質。

And again, just a reminder, that slight uptick was not private credit related. But again, just again, to Chris's point, just idiosyncratic.

另外再提醒一下，那個小幅上升並非與私募信貸（private credit）相關。但同樣地，如 Chris 所說，屬於個別事件。

Thanks for that. And then shifting over to when thinking about expenses and you mentioned about the hiring of frontline bankers. Curious, is there more to come there? And how is the pipeline looking?

謝謝說明。接著談到費用面，你提到前線銀行人員的招募。想請教，這方面後續還會有更多動作嗎？目前的人才／業務管線看起來如何？

So last year, we talked a lot about the fact that we hired, we grew our sales forces by 10% collectively in our investment banking, in our wealth business, and our payments business. We continue to hire people in all of those businesses. Those are our targeted fee businesses where you'll see in our report out today, we grew about 12% in the aggregate. We track all of this very, very closely, and we're pleased with the trajectory of the people we've been able to hire. And as a consequence, we'll continue to do that.

去年我們談了很多：我們在投資銀行、財富管理與支付業務的銷售團隊合計擴編了 10%。我們仍持續在這些業務中招募人才。這些是我們鎖定的手續費型業務；你會在我們今天的報告中看到，整體合計成長約 12%。我們非常、非常密切地追蹤這些指標，也對我們能招募到的人才發展軌跡感到滿意。因此，我們會持續這麼做。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

Gerard Cassidy，RBC。

Hi, Chris. Hi, Clark. Chris, can we circle back to -- you pointed out about the emerging affluent, how it grew 15%, I think you said, to 1.15 million out of a total customer base of 3.5 million. How can you guys embrace AI to penetrate that client base and make it even more profitable because you're using AI?

嗨，Chris。嗨，Clark。Chris，我們能回到你提到的「新興富裕族群」（emerging affluent）嗎？你指出它成長了 15%，我記得你說達到 115 萬人，而總客戶基礎是 350 萬人。你們要如何運用 AI 來滲透這個客群，並因為使用 AI 而讓它更具獲利性？

That's a great question. And it's very timely because I spoke to our big producers in this business as recently as Tuesday morning at their sales conference. I think there's a huge opportunity to use AI. We're already investing heavily in our wealth platforms. And I think as you think about serving that many customers, I think there's a huge opportunity for AI. We'll have more to say on that in the future, but that is a perfect application. Many of these customers are rather homogeneous in their needs.

這是個很好的問題。而且非常切題，因為我就在週二早上、他們的銷售會議上，才剛和我們這項業務的大型生產者（頂尖業務）交流過。我認為運用 AI 有非常大的機會。我們已經在財富管理平台上大舉投資。而且當你想到要服務這麼多客戶時，我認為 AI 有很大的發揮空間。未來我們會再多談一些，但這確實是個完美的應用場景。這些客戶在需求上相當同質。

And I think just -- we are armed with perfect information, obviously, because it's all running through the bank. And I think harvesting more detailed information so we can do a better job of serving these customers that already know and trust Key, but have their money on some other platform where, as you can imagine, they're not getting incredible service just because it used to be that if you had $5 million, you got incredible service everywhere. Now, as the number's a lot higher, and so this is a huge opportunity for us.

而且我認為——我們顯然掌握了完整資訊，因為所有交易都在銀行體系內運行。我認為若能擷取更細緻的資訊，我們就能把服務做得更好，去服務這些已經認識並信任 Key 的客戶；但他們的資金卻放在其他平台上，而你可以想像，他們在那裡未必能得到非常出色的服務，因為過去只要你有 500 萬美元，到處都能得到頂級服務。現在門檻高得多了，因此這對我們而言是個巨大的機會。

And not to put Clark on the spot, but following up with this AI, do you think we'll ever get to the point where outsiders, like folks on this call, could actually measure, for your dollar of spending in AI, it actually incrementally led to a 50-basis-point of ROTCE improvement. Will we get to that kind of metric at some point in the future?

另外，不是要讓 Clark 為難，但延續 AI 的話題，你覺得我們未來是否會走到一個程度，讓外部人士——例如這通電話上的各位——可以實際衡量：每投入 1 美元在 AI 上，是否能帶來增量效果，例如 ROTCE 提升 50 個基點。未來某個時點，我們能做到這種衡量指標嗎？

Well, we would have to get to that first and then share it because, as you know, Gerard, these are pretty hard to measure. I'd say where we and I think others are seeing benefits is in efficiency and capacity, but it's really showing up more in avoidance of future investments. And so that -- it's hard for me to come and say, hey, Gerard, I didn't spend these dollars I may have otherwise spent.

嗯，我們得先做到那一步，然後再分享，因為如你所知，Gerard，這些其實很難衡量。我會說，我們以及我認為其他同業看到的效益，主要在效率與產能，但更多是體現在避免未來的投資。所以——我很難來跟你說，嘿 Gerard，我沒有花掉那些原本可能會花的錢。

So the way I think we really need to demonstrate that is to scale some of these platforms, which has been a theme of Chris's now for, I don't know, as long as I've known him. If we can do that, then you start to see the scale of the platform and the benefit of that cost avoidance in a real way. And then, we can come back and say, we spent these dollars, we created these improved processes, and they drove this level of margin expansion.

因此，我認為我們真正需要證明的方法，是把其中一些平台做規模化；這一直是 Chris 的主題，我不知道，幾乎從我認識他開始就是如此。如果我們能做到，你就會開始真正看到平台規模，以及那種成本避免所帶來的效益。然後我們就能回過頭來說：我們投入了這些資金、打造了這些改善後的流程，並且推動了這樣程度的利潤率擴張。

Great. And then just as the follow-up question, Chris, obviously Key is well positioned as a commercial lender, and it looks like commercial lending for the industry and for you specifically is picking up. You obviously have your industry verticals that are national that drives this commercial product along with, as you pointed out, it's not just a loan, but it's the multiple of products.

很好。接著補問一題，Chris，顯然 Key 作為商業放款機構的定位很強，而且看起來整個產業、以及你們自身的商業放款都在回升。你們顯然有全國性的產業垂直領域，帶動這項商業產品；而且如你所說，這不只是貸款，而是多項產品的組合。

Outside of those seven verticals, is there much opportunity for commercial lending in the Pacific Northwest or the Midwest or New England? How do you look at that kind of commercial lending? Or do you really don't do it and it's just in those seven verticals?

在那七個垂直領域之外，在太平洋西北、中西部或新英格蘭，商業放款是否還有很大機會？你們如何看待那類商業放款？還是你們其實不太做，主要就集中在那七個垂直領域？

No, we do both. Our seven verticals obviously give us what we think is a unique competitive advantage because our middle market bankers call, who are also our payments representatives, they call with our investment bankers, and that's something that others can't do. So in those seven verticals, we have a huge advantage, but we also are out there looking for great payments and commercial banking customers just like everybody else. And yes, there are significant opportunities outside of our seven industry verticals, and we compete effectively there as well.

不，我們兩者都做。我們的七個垂直領域，確實帶來我們認為獨特的競爭優勢，因為我們的中型市場銀行家（同時也是我們的支付業務代表）會與我們的投資銀行家一起拜訪客戶，這是其他人做不到的。所以在那七個垂直領域，我們有很大的優勢；但我們也像其他同業一樣，在市場上尋找優質的支付與商業銀行客戶。而且是的，在七個產業垂直領域之外仍有顯著機會，我們在那裡也能有效競爭。

And Gerard, just as a reminder, over the last couple of quarters, we've seen not just great industry vertical growth, but we've seen very consistent broad-based geographic middle market growth. So it's been a combination of both. We've been adding bankers in verticals and markets. And as we've talked about before, whether it's Chicago, Southern California, recently Atlanta, or this family office business, we're adding bankers in new geographies with new capabilities in the middle market because we see exactly what you're referencing, which is really good opportunity to grow in specific geographies.

Gerard，再提醒一下，過去幾個季度，我們不僅看到產業垂直領域的強勁成長，也看到非常穩定、廣泛的地理區域中型市場成長。所以兩者是並行的。我們在垂直領域與各市場都在增聘銀行家。而且如我們之前談過的，不論是芝加哥、南加州、近期的亞特蘭大，或是這個家族辦公室業務，我們都在新的地理區域增聘具備新能力的中型市場銀行家，因為我們看到了你所提到的那點：在特定地區確實有很好的成長機會。

And our uniqueness isn't limited to just the investment banking area. In our payments area, which Clark at one point ran, by the way, and now Ken Gavrity runs both our commercial business and our payments business, we feel like we have a competitive advantage there as well, Gerard.

而且我們的獨特性不僅限於投資銀行領域。在支付領域——順帶一提，Clark 曾在某個時期負責過——現在 Ken Gavrity 同時負責我們的商業業務與支付業務，我們也覺得在那裡同樣具備競爭優勢，Gerard。

And speaking of payments, and here's a layup maybe for Clark since he used to run payments. We all know about the risk in credit, and you guys have been very clear on how you manage your credit risk, and it's quite good. Well, what's the risk in payments?

說到支付，這題可能是給 Clark 的一記好球，因為他以前負責過支付業務。我們都知道信貸風險，你們也很清楚地說明如何管理信貸風險，而且做得相當好。那麼，支付業務的風險是什麼？

And as you grow new commercial customers, is it an increasing fraud risk we got to watch out for, I mean, which is totally out of the risk questions that we normally ask? But what do you guys think about that part of the equation that as payments, and not just for you folks, because every commercial bank seems to be telling us the whole relationship includes a payments part of it. Do we have a risk here that none of us are really focusing in on yet?

當你們拓展新的商業客戶時，是否會帶來更高的詐欺風險需要留意？我的意思是，這完全不同於我們平常問的風險問題。但你們怎麼看這個方程式中的那一部分：隨著支付業務成長——而且不只是你們，因為每家商業銀行似乎都在告訴我們，整體關係都包含支付這一塊。我們是否存在某種風險，而我們其實都還沒有真正聚焦？

Yeah. I mean, there is a little bit of credit risk in things like ACH and merchant, but those are very manageable and I think well understood. To your point, I think you see probably two versions of risk. The biggest pool is going to be operational. This is a technology business, so whether it's fraud or security, and often the easiest doors in are through clients who aren't necessarily educated enough to manage the risk. So we do a lot of proactive client outreach on how to better secure their own platforms, but it is clearly a technology and software business, and that's why you need to be very dialed in on that level of risk.

是的。我的意思是，在 ACH 和收單（merchant）等業務上確實有一點信貸風險，但這些都非常可控，而且我認為也相當被理解。如你所說，我認為你大概會看到兩種風險。最大的一塊會是營運風險。這是一門科技生意，所以不論是詐欺或資安；而且很多時候，最容易被攻破的入口，往往是透過那些未必受過足夠教育、無法妥善管理風險的客戶。因此我們會主動做很多客戶外聯，教他們如何更好地保護自己的平台；但這顯然是一門科技與軟體的生意，所以你必須在那個層級的風險上非常到位。

And then the other one is just reputational. You're getting into clients, you're offering services. I used to joke, but I think it's true that when we make a loan to a client, they sign the paperwork, they get the money. We talk to them in a couple of weeks or months. When you sign up payments contract with the client, the work begins because you pop open the hood and you start rewiring the enterprise.

另一個就是聲譽風險。你在接觸客戶、提供服務。我以前常開玩笑，但我覺得是真的：當我們給客戶一筆貸款，他們簽完文件、拿到錢。我們可能幾週或幾個月後再跟他們談。但當你和客戶簽下支付合約，工作才真正開始，因為你要打開引擎蓋，開始重新佈線整個企業。

So that comes with a lot of potential client friction. You have to manage that onboarding and servicing relationship very carefully and very thoughtfully. And it's a bit of an offensive lineman game where they expect things to work and when they don't is when you hear from them. So there's a lot of very important proactive communication and management of that process.

所以這會帶來不少潛在的客戶摩擦。你必須非常謹慎、非常周全地管理導入（onboarding）與後續服務的關係。而且這有點像進攻線鋒的比賽：大家期待一切都能正常運作，只有在出問題時你才會聽到他們的聲音。因此，對這個流程進行非常重要的主動溝通與管理。

And so I'd really think about it in the obvious operational risk you raise, which we spend an enormous amount of time thinking about and managing, and then the reputational piece. Because as we say at Key, our payments business is about helping clients run their business better every day because they use it every day, which means there's an opportunity for something to go wrong every day and we have to manage that.

因此，我確實會從你提出的明顯營運風險來思考這件事——我們花了大量時間去思考、管理——以及聲譽層面的部分。因為正如我們在 Key 所說，我們的支付業務是要協助客戶每天把業務運作得更好，因為他們每天都在使用；這也意味著每天都有可能出錯，而我們必須加以管理。

Thank you. Very insightful, Clark, and good luck with the new responsibilities. Thank you.

謝謝。Clark，非常有洞見，祝你在新的職責上一切順利。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Christopher McGratty, KBW.

Christopher McGratty，KBW。

Hey. Good morning. This is Chris O'Connell filling in for Chris. I just wanted to circle back to the margin discussion. And just given the overall shift in the rate environment this past quarter towards higher-for-longer environment, what impact do you think that might have on the margin improvement story?

嗨。早安。我是 Chris O'Connell，代替 Chris 發問。我想回到淨利差的討論。鑑於本季整體利率環境轉向「高利率維持更久」的情境，你認為這可能會對淨利差改善的敘事帶來什麼影響？

Yeah. So as we noted, our base case would be no cuts. So that's incorporated in this, and we did improve the margin guidance a bit. So what I would say, maybe alternatively, is we feel very good about managing to that guidance under a variety of circumstances. We'd likely feel a little stress if there were hikes, and we've got some upside potentially if there were cuts, assuming those cuts, as we would expect, at least at this point, come with a little bit of steepening of the curve.

是的。如同我們提到的，我們的基本情境是假設不降息。因此這已經反映在其中，而且我們也把淨利差指引小幅上調。所以我會說，換個角度看，我們對於在各種情況下達成該指引都很有信心。如果出現升息，我們可能會感到一些壓力；而如果出現降息，則可能有一些上行空間——前提是如我們預期、至少就目前而言，降息會伴隨殖利率曲線略為變陡。

So right now, the reflected slight improvement in that margin guidance incorporates a flat, no-cut scenario. So hopefully, that's responsive to your question there.

所以目前淨利差指引中反映的那一點點改善，是納入了曲線持平、沒有降息的情境。希望這能回應你的問題。

Okay, great. And then you guys provided a ton of color on private credit and the specifics, both in the discussion, the deck, and overall credit quality relatively stable for the quarter. But just wondering if you could kind of stack rank or update us on your wall of worry on maybe more hot-button credit pockets and then where private credit, either as a whole or kind of within the parts that you disclosed and discussed, kind of falls within that stack ranking, I guess in particular with context of your view versus the overall markets?

好的，很好。另外，你們在私募信貸及其細節上提供了很多資訊——不論是在討論中、簡報中——而且本季整體信用品質相對穩定。但我想請教，你們是否可以幫我們做個排序，或更新一下你們「擔憂清單」中較受關注的信貸領域，並說明私募信貸——不論整體或你們已揭露並討論的各部分——在這個排序中大概位於哪裡？我想特別是結合你們的看法與整體市場的背景。

Sure. So I'd be happy to address that, Chris.

當然。Chris，我很樂意回應。

So I wouldn't put private credit in my basket of things that we're really focused on right now. A few areas that we spend time thinking about, first is the oil and gas producers. Depending on how they're hedged, they actually could be making more money in this environment, particularly if they're unhedged. We have a couple billion dollars of exposure there. We have another $2.5 billion or so exposure in transportation. And to the extent people don't have escalators with their customers, obviously, fuel costs are a significant issue.

我不會把私募信貸放在我們目前真正高度關注的事項籃子裡。我們花時間思考的幾個領域，第一是油氣生產商。視其避險狀況而定，在這樣的環境下他們其實可能賺得更多，尤其是未避險者。我們在那裡有數十億美元的曝險。我們在運輸業也有約 25 億美元左右的曝險。而如果業者與客戶之間沒有價格調整條款（escalators），顯然燃料成本就是一個重大議題。

There's no issue yet with respect to consumer discretionary. But if we remain in an inflationary environment and people are spending a lot more for gas, it goes to -- the theory is that they'll have less money to spend on discretionary consumer, which I agree.

目前在非必需消費（consumer discretionary）方面還沒有問題。但如果我們仍處於通膨環境、而且人們在汽油上花費更多，理論上——我也同意——他們可用於非必需消費的錢就會變少。

On the other side of it, we've seen some interesting recovery in that we've been worried a bit about healthcare. Healthcare is firming up nicely, so we feel good about that. We also were really focused on some materials and construction products. Those areas have also firmed up nicely. So that's kind of where we're worried -- where we look.

另一方面，我們看到一些有趣的復甦：我們之前對醫療保健有些擔心。醫療保健正在明顯走穩，因此我們對此感覺良好。我們也曾非常關注某些材料與建築產品。這些領域也都明顯走穩。所以這大致就是我們擔心——以及我們觀察的方向。

Anytime I focus on areas of concern, it's where there's leverage and we frankly have very little. If you look at our leverage book, it's about $2 billion. And it's been $2 billion for as long as I can remember. So I'm not too worried about that. So that's kind of the around the horn on our portfolios.

我每次聚焦在關注領域時，通常是那些有槓桿的地方，而坦白說我們的槓桿曝險非常少。如果你看我們的槓桿貸款部位，大約是 20 億美元。而且就我記憶所及，一直都是 20 億美元左右。所以我對那部分不太擔心。以上就是我們各投資組合的大致概況。

Perfect. Appreciate all the color. Thank you for taking my questions.

太好了。感謝你提供這麼多資訊。謝謝你回答我的問題。

Happy to do so.

很樂意。

Thank you, Christopher. With no additional questions waiting in queue, I would now like to pass the conference over to our CEO, Christopher Gorman, for any closing remarks.

謝謝你，Christopher。目前沒有其他問題在排隊等候，我現在想把會議交給我們的執行長 Christopher Gorman，請他做結語。

Well, thank you, Megan, and thank you all for joining our call today. We appreciate your continued interest in Key. If you have additional questions, please do not hesitate to reach out directly to Brian or others on the Investor Relations team.

好的，謝謝你，Megan，也謝謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。我們感謝各位持續關注 Key。如果你們還有其他問題，請隨時直接聯絡 Brian 或投資人關係團隊的其他成員。

Thank you and have a great day. Operator, this concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝，祝各位有美好的一天。接線員，今天的電話會議到此結束。各位現在可以掛線。