KeyCorp (KEY) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to KeyCorp's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 KeyCorp 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Mauney, KeyCorp Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給 KeyCorp 投資者關係總監 Brian Mauney。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I am here with Chris Gorman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer; and Mo Romani, our Chief Risk Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝各位參加 KeyCorp 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。我與我們的董事長兼首席執行官克里斯·戈爾曼、首席財務官克拉克·卡亞特以及首席風險官莫·羅馬尼一同出席。

As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the key.com website. In the back of the presentation, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures.

像往常一樣，我們將參考我們的收益演示文稿，這些演示文稿可以在 key.com 網站的投資者關係部分找到。在簡報的背面，您將找到我們關於前瞻性揭露和某些財務指標（包括非GAAP指標）的聲明。

This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements and those statements speak only as of today, October 16, 2025, and will not be updated.

這涵蓋了我們的收益報告資料以及今天早上電話會議上的發言。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異，這些陳述僅代表截至 2025 年 10 月 16 日的觀點，不會更新。

With that, I will turn it over to Chris.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給克里斯。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results reflect the steady progress we continue to make in achieving higher levels of both profitability and returns. We reported earnings per share of $0.41. Additionally, return on assets surpassed 1%. Pre-provision net revenue was up $33 million quarter-over-quarter or 5%, marking the sixth straight quarter of improving PPNR.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安。我們第三季的業績反映了我們在實現更高獲利能力和回報方面持續取得的穩定進展。我們公佈的每股收益為0.41美元。此外，資產報酬率超過1%。撥備前淨收入季增 3,300 萬美元，增幅 5%，這是撥備前淨收入連續第六個季度增長。

Revenues adjusting for last year's securities portfolio repositioning grew 17%. While revenues continue to increase as a result of our clearly defined net interest income tailwind. We also continue to differentiate ourselves with respect to fee income, which was up high single digits compared to 2024 for both the quarter and on a year-to-date basis.

經去年證券投資組合重新調整後，營收成長了 17%。由於我們明確的淨利息收入利多因素，收入持續成長。我們在手續費收入方面也持續保持差異化優勢，與 2024 年相比，本季和年初至今的手續費收入均實現了接近兩位數的成長。

Net interest income continues to benefit from strong business dynamics across both deposits and loans. Deposit balances were up while cost of deposits were down this quarter. With respect to loans, we continue to remix the portfolio from low-yielding consumer mortgages into relationship C&I loans at healthy risk-adjusted returns.

淨利息收入持續受益於存款和貸款業務的強勁成長動能。本季存款餘額上升，而存款成本下降。在貸款方面，我們繼續調整投資組合，將低收益的消費抵押貸款轉向具有健康風險調整後收益的C&I關係貸款。

We achieved a 2.75% NIM in the quarter, reaching our year-end target one quarter ahead of schedule. Asset quality metrics continue to trend in a positive direction, with NPAs and criticized loans declining, while net charge-offs were relatively stable.

本季我們實現了 2.75% 的淨利差，比原計劃提前一個季度達到了年終目標。資產品質指標繼續朝著正面的方向發展，不良貸款和受批評貸款有所下降，而淨沖銷額相對穩定。

Our net charge-off ratio year-to-date is squarely within our full year target range of 40 to 45 basis points. As it pertains to the two recent bankruptcies making headlines in the auto industry, we have no direct exposure.

今年迄今為止，我們的淨沖銷率完全符合我們全年 40 至 45 個基點的目標範圍。就最近汽車業兩起引起廣泛關注的破產事件而言，我們沒有直接的風險敞口。

Finally, we continue to build upon our pure leading capital ratios. With reported CET1 approaching 12% at quarter end. This excess capital provides us with both flexibility and optionality as we move forward. Franchise momentum continues to accelerate. Relationship households and commercial clients, both continue to grow at about 2% this year.

最後，我們繼續鞏固我們領先的資本適足率。據報道，截至季末，CET1 佔接近 12%。這筆多餘的資金為我們未來的發展提供了靈活性和選擇。特許經營的發展動能持續加速。家庭客戶和商業客戶今年都繼續保持約 2% 的成長。

In wealth, assets under management reached a record $68 billion. Additionally, sales production in our mass affluent segment also set a record this quarter. Since we launched this business in 2023, we have added approximately 50,000 households, $3 billion of AUM and over $6 billion of total client assets to Key.

在財富管理方面，管理資產達到創紀錄的 680 億美元。此外，本季我們在大眾富裕客戶群的銷售額也創下了紀錄。自 2023 年我們推出這項業務以來，我們已為 Key 增加了約 50,000 個家庭、30 億美元的資產管理規模和超​​過 60 億美元的客戶總資產。

Commercial pipelines are higher, nearly double the levels from one year ago. Investment Banking pipelines are also up meaningfully from prior periods, particularly our M&A pipeline, which has a multiplier effect as advisory assignments often drive additional ancillary business. We raised a robust $50 billion of capital on behalf of our clients in the third quarter, retaining 15% on our balance sheet.

商業管道運輸量更高，幾乎是去年同期的兩倍。投資銀行業務的儲備項目也比以往大幅增加，尤其是我們的併購業務儲備項目，這具有乘數效應，因為諮詢業務通常會帶動其他輔助業務的發展。第三季度，我們代表客戶籌集了高達 500 億美元的資金，並將 15% 的資金保留在我們的資產負債表上。

Assuming market conditions remain favorable, we would anticipate that our fourth quarter fees would be similar to last year's fourth quarter, which was one of our best quarters on record. We remain on track to deliver our second best year in investment banking in our history.

假設市場狀況保持良好，我們預計第四季度的費用將與去年第四季類似，而去年第四季是我們有史以來業績最好的季度之一。我們仍有望實現公司史上投資銀行業務第二好的業績。

In commercial payments, fee equivalent revenue continues to grow in the high single-digit range, reflecting our focus and commitment to helping our clients run their businesses better every day. As we enjoy this broad-based momentum, we continue to invest in relationship bankers, client advisers and in our technology platforms. We remain on track to increase our frontline staff by approximately 10% this year. We are already seeing good production volumes from many of these recent hires and broadly expect to see payback from all of our hires over the next 12 to 18 months.

在商業支付方面，手續費收入持續保持高個位數成長，這反映了我們致力於幫助客戶每天更好地經營業務的專注和承諾。憑藉這一廣泛的發展勢頭，我們將繼續投資於客戶經理、客戶顧問和我們的技術平台。我們仍有望在今年將第一線員工人數增加約 10%。我們已經看到近期招募的許多員工帶來了良好的生產量，並普遍預期在未來 12 至 18 個月內，所有新員工都將帶來回報。

Before I turn it over to Clark, I want to briefly cover the medium-term targets that we disclosed a few weeks ago in our investor presentation that is available for you to review on our website. We believe we can achieve a return on tangible common equity of 15% or better on a run rate basis by the end of 2027.

在將發言權交給克拉克之前，我想簡要介紹一下我們幾週前在投資者簡報中披露的中期目標，您可以在我們的網站上查看該簡報。我們相信，到 2027 年底，我們能夠實現有形普通股權益回報率達到 15% 或更高（以運行率計算）。

Let me outline the building blocks to achieving those returns. First of all, by improving NIM by another 50 basis points to 3.25% or better, with half of it coming from the mechanical lift of fixed asset repricing, the rest coming from strong execution in our businesses by continuing to focus on primacy and generating relationship lending opportunities.

讓我來概述一下實現這些回報的基本要素。首先，透過進一步提高淨利差 50 個基點至 3.25% 或更高，其中一半來自固定資產重新定價的機械性提升，其餘部分來自我們業務的強勁執行，繼續專注於優先地位和創造關係貸款機會。

Secondly, by continuing to compound our fee advantages, leveraging our proven ability to broaden and monetize client relationships.

其次，我們將持續鞏固我們的收費優勢，利用我們已被證明的拓展客戶關係和實現客戶獲利的能力。

Third, by maintaining our expense discipline, including ongoing continuous improvement initiatives that are part of our DNA.

第三，透過維持成本控制，包括持續改善舉措，這已成為我們企業基因的一部分。

And lastly, through share repurchases in the ordinary course of business that maintain our CET1 ratios at our current relatively high levels.

最後，透過日常業務中的股票回購，將我們的 CET1 比率維持在目前相對較高的水平。

To this end, consistent with my comments last quarter that we would crawl, walk, run when it comes to share buybacks, and he expects to be back in the open market repurchasing approximately $100 million of common stock in the fourth quarter.

為此，正如我上個季度所說，我們在股票回購方面會循序漸進，他預計將在第四季重返公開市場，回購約 1 億美元的普通股。

To be clear. we believe the path to 15% has low execution risk as we continue to deliver against our compelling organic growth plan. Given our current excess capital position, we could accelerate our trajectory and improve returns through incremental share repurchases and/or more balance sheet restructurings. The 15% should not be viewed as a final goal, but rather an important milestone on our journey to achieving higher levels of both sustainable profitability and returns for our shareholders.

需要明確的是，我們認為實現15%的目標風險較低，因為我們將繼續推動我們極具吸引力的內生成長計畫。鑑於我們目前擁有的充裕資本，我們可以透過逐步回購股票和/或進一步重組資產負債表來加快發展步伐並提高回報。15% 不應被視為最終目標，而應被視為我們在實現更高水準的可持續獲利能力和股東回報的旅程中的一個重要里程碑。

In summary, I am proud of our results this quarter, contributing to what will be a record revenue year in 2025. We are currently in the midst of our budget process, and we'll have more to say on 2026 at year-end but with our strong trajectory in healthy pipelines, I believe we are well positioned to drive another year of outsized revenue and earnings growth in 2026.

總而言之，我對本季的業績感到自豪，這將為2025年創紀錄的收入做出貢獻。我們目前正處於預算編制過程中，關於 2026 年的計劃，我們將在年底公佈更多細節。但憑藉我們健康的專案儲備，我相信我們有能力在 2026 年再次實現營收和利潤的大幅成長。

With that, I'll turn it over to Clark to review the quarter's financial results in greater detail. Clark?

接下來，我將把發言權交給克拉克，讓他更詳細地回顧本季的財務表現。克拉克？

Thanks, Chris. Starting on slide 5. Our third quarter results reflect strong performance and continued momentum across the company. As a reminder, last year's third quarter results were impacted by a securities portfolio repositioning. As such, all comparisons are on an adjusted basis.

謝謝你，克里斯。從第5張投影片開始。我們第三季的業績反映了公司各部門的強勁表現和持續成長動能。需要提醒的是，去年第三季的業績受到了證券投資組合重新調整的影響。因此，所有比較均以調整後的數據為基礎。

Revenue was up 17% year-over-year, while expenses increased 7%. Tax equivalent net interest income was up 4% sequentially, primarily driven by commercial loan and low-cost client deposit growth. Noninterest income increased 8% year-over-year, again growing a little faster than expenses this quarter.

營收年增 17%，而支出成長 7%。稅收等值淨利息收入較上季成長 4%，主要得益於商業貸款和低成本客戶存款的成長。非利息收入年增 8%，本季再次略高於支出成長速度。

Loan loss provision of $107 million included net charge-offs of $114 million or 42 basis points of average loans, offset by a modest reserve release primarily due to the reductions in NPAs and criticized loans this quarter. Tangible book value per share increased 4% sequentially and 14% year-over-year.

貸款損失準備金 1.07 億美元包括淨沖銷 1.14 億美元，相當於平均貸款額的 42 個基點，但由於本季度不良貸款和受批評貸款的減少，導致準備金釋放量略有減少，從而抵消了上述損失。每股有形帳面價值較上季成長 4%，較去年同期成長 14%。

Finally, we were pleased to have received a one notch upgrade to both our long and short-term ratings from Fitch this quarter with our senior unsecured debt now rated A-minus. We also continue to maintain a positive outlook with Moody's.

最後，我們很高興本季獲得惠譽評級，長期和短期評級均上調一級，我們的優先無擔保債務評級現已達到 A-。我們對穆迪的評級也繼續保持樂觀。

Moving to the balance sheet on slide 6. Average loans increased by $0.5 billion sequentially, reflecting a 2% increase in C&I loans and a modest increase in CRE loans, partially offset by planned runoff of about $600 million of low-yielding consumer loans.

接下來是第 6 張投影片上的資產負債表。平均貸款額較上季成長 0.5 億美元，反映出商業和工業貸款成長 2%，商業房地產貸款略有成長，但部分被計畫縮減的約 6 億美元低收益消費貸款所抵銷。

On a spot basis, C&I loans grew by $700 million, led by new relationships to Key. Most of the growth came from the power and utility sector and in middle market broadly across sectors and regions. Line utilization decreased approximately 1% sequentially to 31% driven largely by an increase in commitments to large corporate clients. Draws were roughly flat from the second quarter. In middle market, we saw utilization rates increase about 50 basis points.

從現貨市場來看，工商業貸款成長了7億美元，這主要得益於與Key建立的新合作關係。大部分成長來自電力和公用事業部門，以及各行業和地區的中端市場。線路利用率較上季下降約 1% 至 31%，這主要是由於對大型企業客戶的承諾增加所致。從第二節開始，雙方戰績基本持平。在中端市場，我們看到利用率提高了約 50 個基點。

Turning to slide 7. Average deposits grew 2% and period-end deposits grew 3% sequentially, primarily driven by growth with commercial clients. Average consumer deposits, excluding CDs, grew 1%. Average noninterest-bearing deposits grew 2% sequentially and remained stable at 19% of total deposits or 23% when adjusted for our hybrid accounts. Total deposit costs declined by 2 basis points to 1.97%.

翻到第7張投影片。平均存款較上季成長 2%，期末存款較上季成長 3%，主要受商業客戶成長的推動。不包括定期存款在內的平均消費者存款增加了 1%。平均無息存款較上季成長 2%，佔總存款的比例穩定在 19%，如果將混合帳戶調整後，則為 23%。總存款成本下降 2 個基點至 1.97%。

Our cumulative interest-bearing beta remained at about 55% through the third quarter, in line with updates. We've been able to get a little more aggressive than we expected due to our lower loan-to-deposit ratio as we entered the year. The ongoing remixing of loans from consumer to commercial, which limits our incremental funding needs and that the markets we operate in have to date generally remain pretty rational from a competition standpoint.

第三季度，我們的累積計息貝塔係數維持在 55% 左右，與先前的預測一致。由於年初時我們的貸款存款比率較低，因此我們能夠比預期採取更積極的策略。消費貸款向商業貸款的持續重組限制了我們的新增資金需求，而且從競爭的角度來看，我們所處的市場迄今為止總體上仍然相當理性。

Overall, interest-bearing funding costs declined by 8 basis points, resulting in a cumulative interest-bearing funding beta of 74%.

整體而言，計息融資成本下降了 8 個基點，導致累積計息融資貝塔係數為 74%。

Slide 8 provides drivers of NII and NIM this quarter. Tax equivalent NII was up 4% sequentially, primarily driven by our continued balance sheet optimization efforts. We grew relationship commercial loans at relatively stable spreads to the existing book as well as low-cost client deposits while running off lower-yielding consumer loans and higher cost long-term debt and other wholesale borrowing.

第 8 頁介紹了本季度 NII 和 NIM 的驅動因素。稅收等效淨利息收入季增 4%，主要得益於我們持續的資產負債表優化工作。我們以相對穩定的利差發展了現有貸款組合中的商業貸款，並吸收了低成本的客戶存款，同時逐步減少了收益較低的消費貸款、成本較高的長期債務和其他批發借款。

NII also benefited from an additional day in the quarter. We achieved our year-end net interest margin goal a quarter early with NIM increasing 9 basis points sequentially to 2.75%. I'll discuss our outlook shortly, but we currently expect NII and NIM to grow modestly in the fourth quarter off of the third quarter. Our balance sheet is positioned to be fairly neutral to additional Fed rate cuts in the short term.

NII也受惠於季度中多出的一天。我們提前一個季度實現了年末淨利差目標，淨利差環比成長 9 個基點至 2.75%。我稍後會討論我們的展望，但我們目前預計第四季淨利息收入和淨利差將比第三季略有成長。短期內，我們的資產負債表對聯準會進一步降息的影響相對較小。

Turning to slide 9. Adjusted noninterest income increased 8% year-over-year and included a Visa related settlement charge of approximately $8 million. Investment banking and debt placement fees were $184 million, an increase of 8% year-over-year. Year-to-date, investment banking and debt placement fees are up 15%.

翻到第9張投影片。經調整的非利息收入年增 8%，其中包括約 800 萬美元的 Visa 相關和解費用。投資銀行和債務安排費用為 1.84 億美元，年增 8%。今年迄今為止，投資銀行和債務融資費用上漲了 15%。

The strong quarter was driven by broad-based debt and equity capital markets activity. Middle market M&A volumes across the industry remain tepid. Although, as Chris mentioned, we've begun to see an encouraging pickup in strategic dialogue among our clients over the past month, and our M&A pipelines are up materially from where they were last quarter.

本季強勁成長主要得益於債務和股權資本市場的廣泛活躍。整個產業的中階市場併購交易量依然疲軟。雖然正如克里斯所提到的，在過去一個月裡，我們開始看到客戶之間的策略對話出現了令人鼓舞的回升，而且我們的併購專案儲備也比上個季度大幅增加。

Trust and investment services income grew 7% year-over-year, reflecting higher market values and positive net flows. Assets under management reached a new record high of $68 billion. Commercial mortgage servicing fees were $73 million, remaining near historic highs. Our active special servicing balances remain elevated at over $11 billion, up 48% compared to the prior year. We would expect to see these fees declined in the fourth quarter to the $60 million to $65 million range, reflecting the impact of lower Fed funds rates and successful resolutions within our active special servicing book.

信託和投資服務收入年增 7%，反映出市場價值上升和淨流入增加。管理資產規模達到創紀錄的680億美元。商業抵押貸款服務費為 7,300 萬美元，仍接近歷史高點。我們目前的特殊服務餘額仍居高不下，超過 110 億美元，比上年增長 48%。我們預計第四季度這些費用將下降至 6,000 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元之間，這反映了聯邦基金利率下降以及我們活躍的特殊服務業務成功解決的影響。

Our service charges and corporate service fees increased roughly 12% and 4% year-over-year, respectively. The increase in service charges was largely driven by continued momentum in commercial payments, which overall grew fee equivalent revenue at a high single-digit rate. While corporate services income was driven by loan and derivatives client activity.

我們的服務費和企業服務費較去年同期分別成長了約 12% 和 4%。服務費的成長主要得益於商業支付的持續成長勢頭，商業支付的整體費用收入以接近兩位數的速度成長。企業服務收入主要由貸款和衍生性商品客戶的業務活動所驅動。

On slide 10, third quarter noninterest expenses of $1.2 billion increased 2% from the prior quarter and 7% year-over-year. Year-over-year expense growth was primarily driven by higher personnel expense related to increases in headcount, mainly in the frontline producers that Chris mentioned and higher incentive compensation attributable to the strong fee environment and the impact from Key's higher stock price.

第 10 頁顯示，第三季非利息支出為 12 億美元，比上一季成長 2%，年增 7%。同比費用成長主要由人員增加導致的人員費用增加所致，主要是克里斯提到的前線生產人員增加，以及由於強勁的收費環境和 Key 股價上漲的影響而導致的激勵性薪酬增加。

Non-personnel expenses rose modestly as we made an $8 million contribution to our charitable foundation during the quarter. Business services and professional fees and computer processing costs also rose slightly reflecting technology-related investments.

由於本季我們向慈善基金會捐贈了 800 萬美元，非人事支出略有增加。反映出與技術相關的投資，商業服務費、專業服務費和電腦處理成本也略有上漲。

Consistent with our prior guidance, we expect expenses to increase again in the fourth quarter, reflecting continued hiring and technology investments, anticipated growth in noninterest income and client activity and other year-end seasonality factors.

與我們先前的預期一致，我們預計第四季度支出將再次增加，這反映了持續的招聘和技術投資、非利息收入和客戶活動的預期增長以及其他年末季節性因素。

As shown on slide 11, credit quality is relatively stable to improving. Net charge-offs were $114 million or an annualized 42 basis points of average loans. Year-to-date net charge-offs of 41 basis points are squarely within our full year target range of 40 to 45 basis points. Nonperforming assets declined by 6% sequentially and the NPA ratio improved by 3 basis points to 63 basis points. Criticized loans declined by about another $200 million or 3% sequentially.

如投影片 11 所示，信貸品質相對穩定並有所改善。淨沖銷額為 1.14 億美元，相當於年化平均貸款額的 42 個基點。今年迄今的淨沖銷額為 41 個基點，完全在我們全年 40 至 45 個基點的目標範圍內。不良資產季減 6%，不良資產率改善 3 個基點至 63 個基點。備受詬病的貸款較上季減少了約 2 億美元，降幅達 3%。

Turning to slide 12. Our CET1 ratio was 11.8% at quarter end, driven by net earnings generation. Our marked CET1 ratio, which includes unrealized AFS and pension losses, increased by about 30 basis points to 10.3%. We believe both ratios continue to be at or near the top of the peer group.

翻到第12張投影片。季度末，我們的CET1比率為11.8%，這主要得益於淨利的成長。我們標示的 CET1 比率（包括未實現的 AFS 和退休金損失）上升了約 30 個基點，達到 10.3%。我們認為這兩個比率仍然處於或接近同行業領先水平。

Given our marked CET1 increasing comfortably above the top end of our target range, we plan to be active in repurchasing roughly $100 million of our shares in the fourth quarter and continue as previously stated, in 2026.

鑑於我們的 CET1 顯著成長，遠超目標範圍的上限，我們計劃在第四季度積極回購約 1 億美元的股票，並按先前所述，在 2026 年繼續回購。

Moving to slide 13. We are increasing our full year and exit rate guidance following the strong third quarter results as we now have good line of sight into how the fourth quarter is shaping up. As a reminder, this guidance holds across a range of potential yield curve environments over the course of the fourth quarter.

切換到第13張投影片。鑑於第三季業績強勁，我們現在對第四季度的發展前景有了清晰的了解，因此我們提高了全年業績和退出率預期。需要提醒的是，該指引適用於第四季各種潛在的殖利率曲線環境。

We now expect full year net interest income growth of about 22% at the high end of the previously guided 20% to 22% range. In conjunction, our fourth quarter exit rate NII should grow 13% or more compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, assuming a fairly flat balance sheet in the fourth quarter compared to the third, this implies a fourth quarter NIM in the 2.75% to 2.8% range.

我們現在預計全年淨利息收入成長率約為 22%，處於先前預期的 20% 至 22% 區間的高端。同時，假設第四季度資產負債表與第三季度相比基本持平，則我們第四季度的淨利息收入退出率應比 2024 年第四季度增長 13% 或更多，這意味著第四季度淨息差將在 2.75% 至 2.8% 的範圍內。

We expect fees to grow between 5% and 6%. We believe we can land towards the higher end of this range, assuming we see some pull-through of our improved M&A pipelines prior to year-end as currently expected and market conditions remain favorable.

我們預計費用將增加 5% 至 6%。我們相信，如果如目前預期的那樣，我們在年底前能夠看到一些改進後的併購項目取得進展，並且市場條件保持有利，那麼我們可以達到該範圍的較高水平。

As we previously mentioned, we expect full year expenses to fall within the middle of the range we provided at the beginning of the year or approximately 4%. We expect our GAAP tax rate to come in around 22% in the fourth quarter.

正如我們之前提到的，我們預計全年支出將落在年初給出的範圍的中間值，大約 4%。我們預計第四季的GAAP稅率將在22%左右。

For the full year, we currently expect the GAAP and tax equivalent effective rates to land at approximately 21% and 22%, respectively, both toward the better end of the previously guided ranges. Our other guidance remains unchanged.

目前我們預期全年GAAP和稅收等效實際利率將分別約為21%和22%，均處於先前預期範圍的較高水平。其他方面的指導意見保持不變。

In summary, subject to the usual macro caveats, we expect to maintain our strong momentum through the fourth quarter, which would result in record revenue in 2025, fee-based operating leverage of greater than 100 basis points and north of 10% positive operating leverage overall.

總而言之，在通常的宏觀經濟限制下，我們預計將保持強勁的成長勢頭直至第四季度，這將使 2025 年的收入創下歷史新高，基於費用的營運槓桿超過 100 個基點，整體營運槓桿率超過 10%。

With that, I'll now turn the call back to the operator to provide instructions for the Q&A session. Operator?

接下來，我將把電話轉回給接線員，以便他/她提供問答環節的說明。操作員？

(Operator instructions) Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）Manan Gosalia，摩根士丹利。

Chris, Clark, we say the timing -- I appreciate the timing and details related to the 15% ROTCE and the 3.25% plus NIM targets. I guess a two-part question here. First, can you provide a little bit more detail on the drivers to get to that 15%-plus ROTCE target?

Chris、Clark，我們說時機——我很欣賞與 15% ROTCE 和 3.25% 以上的 NIM 目標相關的時機和細節。我想這個問題應該包含兩個部分。首先，您能否詳細說明實現 15% 以上 ROTCE 目標的驅動因素？

And second, you do have some peers who are targeting closer to a 16% to 19% ROTCE over a similar time frame. Chris, I know you noted that the 15%-plus is not the final goal. But maybe help us understand why the ROTCE can't be higher in the medium term?

其次，你們也有一些同行，他們的目標是在類似的時間範圍內實現 16% 到 19% 的 ROTCE。克里斯，我知道你指出15%以上的成長並不是最終目標。但或許可以幫我們理解為什麼中期內 ROTCE 無法更高？

Sure. Manon, it's Clark. I'll take that. So first, just to reiterate what you just said, which is Chris' point that the 15% is stopped and not the destination. So I think that's an important element here. But let me get at both ROTCE target we set out, and I'll include in that the NIM since that's a big driver, obviously, of the numerator. And if we start there you're talking about the NIM moving up about 50 basis points over that time frame. That's meaningful moves.

當然。瑪儂，我是克拉克。我接受。首先，我想重申你剛才說的，也就是克里斯的觀點，即15%的距離是停止的，而不是到達目的地。所以我認為這是其中一個重要的因素。但讓我先談談我們設定的 ROTCE 目標，我還要把淨利潤率 (NIM) 也算進去，因為顯然，淨利潤率是分子的一個重要驅動因素。如果我們從那裡開始，那麼你所說的就是淨利差在該時間段內上升約 50 個基點。這是意義重大的舉措。

Obviously, we've started from a lower level than others, and we're moving up nicely over the course of the last year. But if I look at that as a split between mechanical movement, fixed asset repricing in our securities book over time in the swaps and just as a note there, you'll see with forward starters coming on something like $34 billion of swaps in the 3.8% to 3.9% range.

顯然，我們的起點比其他人低，但在過去一年裡，我們取得了不錯的進步。但如果我把這看作是機械運動、固定資產在我們證券帳簿中隨著時間推移在互換交易中的重新定價之間的分離，並且需要注意的是，你會看到遠期啟動的互換交易額約為 340 億美元，利率在 3.8% 到 3.9% 之間。

So as rates come down, those will go from a slight negative carry today to a pretty strong benefit. So we feel very good about that position. And then that, we think, is about half of that gain with the other half coming from continued strong organic activity. And I think that will be loan growth. We'll continue to focus on good, strong commercial loan growth offsetting the runoff in consumers.

因此，隨著利率下降，這些收益將從目前的輕微負收益轉變為相當大的收益。所以我們對這個立場感到非常滿意。我們認為，這大約佔總收益的一半，另一半則來自持續強勁的內生成長。我認為那將會導致貸款成長。我們將繼續專注於維持良好的、強勁的商業貸款成長，以抵消消費貸款的減少。

So think about that as like a 2% pickup over time. We expect to continue to grow high-quality granular deposits, which we've been doing, both in the commercial and the consumer space. And to manage the pricing on those deposits effectively. And I would say kind of 50-ish beta over that time frame, not necessarily in any one quarter, but over that time frame is kind of what we would expect there.

所以你可以把它想像成隨著時間的推移增加了 2%。我們期望繼續發展高品質的顆粒狀礦藏，我們一直在這樣做，無論是在商業領域還是消費領域。並有效管理這些存款的定價。我認為，在那個時間段內，beta 值大概在 50 左右，不一定是指某個季度，而是那個時間段內，這大概是我們預期的。

And I think those two pieces together get to the 50 basis points in that time frame. If you move to fees, we continue to see very strong growth across our high priority fee businesses, capital markets, commercial payments, wealth and commercial mortgage servicing. We would continue to invest in those and have. And so we expect that growth to continue through that time frame. All of those, of course, have very strong our ROTCEs and don't use up a lot of capital. So that benefits certainly to 15%.

我認為這兩個因素加起來可以在那個時間範圍內達到 50 個基點。如果轉向收費業務，我們將繼續看到我們在高優先收費業務、資本市場、商業支付、財富管理和商業抵押貸款服務方面保持強勁增長。我們會繼續投資這些領域，而且也確實已經投資了。因此，我們預計這種成長勢頭將在該時間內持續下去。當然，所有這些股票的ROTCE都非常高，而且不會佔用大量資本。因此，這肯定會帶來 15% 的好處。

On the expense side, I think we have pretty well demonstrated ability to manage expenses effectively. We, of course, plan to continue doing that and using our continuous improvement activities to continue to fund meaningful and needed investments. And then on the provision side, feeling very good about credit quality, and we think we'll continue to focus on high-quality borrowers where we can monetize those loans through our compelling seed platform.

在支出方面，我認為我們已經很好地證明了我們有能力有效地管理支出。當然，我們計劃繼續這樣做，並利用我們的持續改進活動來繼續為有意義和必要的投資提供資金。在貸款方面，我們對信貸品質感到非常滿意，我們認為我們將繼續專注於高品質的借款人，並透過我們極具吸引力的種子平台將這些貸款變現。

So all of that, we think by that end of '27 gets us a good portion of the way to the 15%. And I would think about that in ROAs that are in line with or better than some peers north of 120 ROA. So I think that's an important milestone for us as well.

所以，我們認為到 2027 年底，所有這些措施將使我們離 15% 的目標邁出很大一步。我會考慮那些 ROA 達到或超過某些 ROA 120 的同行的公司。所以我認為這對我們來說也是一個重要的里程碑。

And then I think the second obvious piece here is the denominator, which is the capital base. As you are well aware, we have a strong CET1 and mark CE1 today in absolute and relative terms. And this analysis assumes we'll manage buybacks, which, as Chris said, will initiate again here in some size in the fourth quarter, to effectively our current market levels, which are about 10.3%.

然後，我認為第二個顯而易見的部分是分母，也就是資本基礎。如您所知，我們擁有強大的 CET1 能力，並且今天無論從絕對值還是相對值來看，我們都對 CE1 給予了高度評價。這項分析假設我們將進行股票回購，正如克里斯所說，股票回購將在第四季度再次以一定規模啟動，以達到我們目前的市場水平，約為 10.3%。

So maybe one or two additional comments here to just to frame this, and I think they're pretty important. So First, the 15% we see as low risk, no real big swings in here. So this is running our business effectively as we're doing today and capital side, and we're going to generate and are generating solid capital growth. So we have ample ability here to increase buybacks or to restructure to accelerate to our targeted balance sheet if that's what we need to do.

所以，這裡可能還有一兩點補充說明，用來概括一下，而且我認為這兩點非常重要。首先，我們認為這 15% 的風險較低，這裡不會出現真正的大幅波動。所以，我們目前的業務營運和資本運作都非常有效，我們將實現並正在實現穩健的資本成長。因此，如果需要的話，我們完全有能力增加股票回購或進行重組，以加快實現我們目標資產負債表。

Both of those speed up to 15%, and they offer clear outperformance to that midterm milestone. We haven't decided sitting here today if we're going to pull those levers in addition to the buybacks we're already assuming nor a degree to which we would do it if we choose to do it. So again, we feel like it's a very good position to be in here. We could pull either or both of those levers deliver very strong returns on both a relative and absolute basis and still be at or near the high end of our peer capital range.

這兩個指標均加速至 15%，並且在中期目標實現之前均有明顯的超額收益。我們今天坐在這裡還沒有決定，除了我們已經計劃的股票回購之外，是否還要採取這些措施，也沒有決定如果我們選擇這樣做，會採取到什麼程度。所以，我們再次認為，我們現在所處的位置非常有利。我們採取其中一項或兩項措施，都能在相對和絕對意義上帶來非常強勁的回報，同時也能維持在同產業資本範圍的高端或接近高端水準。

So just to dimension that, one more way, if we took our current mark capital at 103 and we took that down to the peer level of [9.1%], that would generate an additional 2% of our ROTCE. So we can do that math. We can do that with continued solid business performance and some more aggressive capital management and we can get comfortably past that 15%-plus target.

為了更直觀地說明這一點，我們再舉一個例子：如果我們把目前的市值資本降低到 103，然後降到同業水準 [9.1%]，那麼我們的 ROTCE 將增加 2%。所以我們可以進行這筆計算。只要我們持續保持穩健的業務表現，並採取更積極的資本管理措施，就能輕鬆超過 15% 的目標。

Just to add to Clark's point, our current long-term goal for return on tangible common equity is 16% to 19%. We haven't updated that, but I can tell you that when we do, it won't look much different than 16% to 19%.

補充 Clark 的觀點，我們目前對有形普通股權益報酬率的長期目標是 16% 至 19%。我們還沒有更新這個數據，但我可以告訴你，更新後，數據不會比 16% 到 19% 有太大變化。

Got it. That's great. I really appreciate the fulsome response here. I guess a quick follow-up, given that NIM is a big driver here. As we think about that 3.25%-plus NIM, how do you think about rate cuts in the yield curve? Do you need to see a specific level of steepness in the curve to get there? .

知道了。那太棒了。我非常感謝您的詳盡回覆。我想快速跟進一下，因為 NIM 在這裡是一個重要的驅動因素。當我們考慮超過 3.25% 的淨利差時，您如何看待殖利率曲線中的降息？你需要看到曲線達到特定的陡峭程度才能得出這個結論嗎？。

I don't think we do. I do think that kind of 50-ish beta is the right way to think about it. Right now, that's just given the forward curve steepening it might be true for most banks, but steepening obviously provides some additional benefit, and we expect to see some of that coming through again in the forwards, more steeper curve said differently, would, I think, benefit us more. But right now, that really just relies on that kind of 50-ish beta and the forward curve, which does, again, have a little bit of steepening in it.

我不認為我們有。我認為以 50 左右的 beta 值來衡量是正確的。目前，鑑於遠期殖利率曲線趨陡，這可能對大多數銀行來說是事實，但殖利率曲線趨陡顯然會帶來一些額外的好處，我們預計遠期市場會再次出現這種情況，換句話說，殖利率曲線更加陡峭，我認為這對我們更有利。但就目前而言，這實際上只依賴大約 50 的 beta 值和遠期曲線，而遠期曲線確實略微有些陡峭。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

Good morning. Just one quick question first on bank M&A. We've seen some activity. I think there was some discussion around Key being involved in a recent transaction. And I think the concern that I've heard from investors is given your stock valuation, the risk of significant tangible book dilution and what that entails. And I think there's just caution towards owning banks that are viewed as potential buyers of other banks.

早安.首先請教一個關於銀行併購的問題。我們已經觀察到一些活動。我認為最近有人討論過 Key 是否參與了一筆交易。我從投資者那裡聽到的擔憂是，鑑於你們的股票估值，存在著帳面價值大幅稀釋的風險，以及這會帶來哪些影響。我認為，對於持有被視為其他銀行潛在收購者的銀行股份，人們會抱持謹慎態度。

So I would love for you to frame for us how you're thinking about bank M&A from a financial metric perspective. And are you actively sort of just your appetite for doing with you?

所以，我想請您從財務指標的角度，為我們闡述您是如何看待銀行併購的。你是否積極地滿足了你對這件事的渴望？

Well, thank you for the question. This is a topic that I know he's gotten some discussion probably more than is warranted. So let me start off with talking a little bit about what our strategic focus is. And I think Clark just did a really great job of walking everyone through the pieces and parts of the step-up in our return on tangible common equity. That's what we can control. That's what we are focused on.

謝謝你的提問。我知道他已經就這個話題展開了一些討論，可能討論得有點過頭了。那麼，首先讓我簡單談談我們的策略重點是什麼。我認為克拉克做得非常出色，他向大家詳細解釋了我們實體普通股報酬率提升的各個環節和組成部分。這是我們能控制的。這就是我們關注的重點。

Obviously, as we build up our return on tangible common equity, we will get a multiple and have a currency that will put us in a good position if we ever wanted to transact at some point. So our real focus is this huge organic opportunity that's right in front of us that we have to execute on that's how we can create the greatest value for our shareholders.

顯然，隨著我們有形普通股的回報不斷提高，我們將獲得倍數收益，並擁有一種貨幣，這將使我們在將來某個時候進行交易時處於有利地位。因此，我們真正的重點是擺在我們面前的巨大有機成長機會，我們必須抓住這個機會，這樣才能為我們的股東創造最大的價值。

Specifically, as it relates to bank M&A, that's pretty far down the capital priorities. So let me kind of walk everyone through what our capital priorities are, First is to support our clients. I mentioned that we have a backlog that's 2 times today what it was just one year ago. So we're going to use our capital for our clients.

具體來說，就銀行併購而言，這在資本優先事項中排名相當靠後。那麼，讓我來跟大家介紹一下我們的資金優先事項，首先是支持我們的客戶。我提到過，我們現在的積壓工作量是去年同期的兩倍。所以我們將把資金用於服務客戶。

Secondly, we are going to pursue tuck-in deals in support of our targeted scale strategy. Those are really fee-based capabilities, really knowledge workers I think we have a really good track record of being able to buy these relatively small businesses and plug them in and integrate them. We're going to continue to do that.

其次，我們將尋求補充收購，以支持我們既定的規模擴張策略。這些都是真正基於收費的能力，真正的知識工作者。我認為我們在收購這些相對較小的企業並將其整合方面有著非常好的記錄。我們將繼續這樣做。

Obviously, we'll support the dividend at $0.25 a share. We now have sort of turned the valve open on share repurchases. I think Clark did a nice job of walking through. We clearly have in front of us some opportunity to work on our balance sheet a bit as we use -- without, frankly, using a lot of capital. For example, we have about $14 billion of CMOs and CMBS, the CMBS bonds that are less than 2%. So that's an opportunity for us.

顯然，我們會支持每股 0.25 美元的股息。現在我們已經算是打開了股票回購的閥門。我覺得克拉克走完路線做得很好。顯然，我們面前有一些機會可以稍微改善一下我們的資產負債表，因為我們可以使用——坦白說，不需要使用很多資金。例如，我們有大約 140 億美元的 CMO 和 CMBS，其中 CMBS 債券的收益率低於 2%。所以這對我們來說是個機會。

And then as it pertains specifically to bank M&A, it's a really tight screen that we would look at. First, it has to be absolutely on strategy and there's not many banks that would check that. Secondly, it has to be a bank that has a culture that we think we can integrate into ours. We have a bit of a unique culture because we have a unique business model.

而具體到銀行併購，我們會進行非常嚴格的篩選。首先，它必須完全符合策略，而很少銀行會核查這一點。其次，這家銀行的文化必須是我們認為可以融入我們自身文化的。我們擁有獨特的企業文化，因為我們有獨特的商業模式。

And as you know, we bring leading the integration of -- first (technical difficulty), I sort of know what's involved in that, and that's not easy. That's actually the hard part. And then lastly, and important for this group for sure, it would have to check the box on a variety of important financial metrics, inclusive of tangible book value dilution. So that's just broadly how I'm thinking about our strategy and sort of where inorganic growth fits in.

如您所知，我們引領整合——首先（技術難題），我大致了解其中涉及的內容，這並不容易。這才是難點所在。最後，也是對這個群體來說非常重要的一點，它必須在各種重要的財務指標上都達標，包括有形帳面價值稀釋。以上就是我對我們策略的大致思考，以及非有機成長在其中扮演的角色。

Got it. So it sounds like unless someone gifted your bank, the bar is extremely high for the deal.

知道了。所以聽起來，除非有人給你的銀行送了大禮，否則這筆交易的門檻非常高。

Just on a separate question, Chris, you have a pretty good sense of just the capital markets, what's going on given the focus on the exposure of banks to NBFIs. One, talk to us in terms of how you view the risk on your balance sheet and the risk of the lack of visibility that the banks have when providing these warehouse facilities in non-bank providers?

克里斯，另外問一個問題，你對資本市場，尤其是銀行對非銀行金融機構的風險敞口，有著相當不錯的了解。第一，請您談談您如何看待資產負債表上的風險，以及銀行在向非銀行機構提供這些倉儲服務時缺乏透明度所帶來的風險？

Yes. So let me talk about what's in our NBFIs portfolio and why, at least from a key perspective, I don't think it's an issue. We have a business called SFL, which we've been in for 20 years, and we do a lot of the payments work. We do a lot of the securitization work. I don't think we've had a charge-off in 20 years. So my point is the key for NBFI is for banks to be readily engaged with these borrowers and not just have a piece of paper that they put on the shelf.

是的。那麼，讓我來談談我們非銀行金融機構的投資組合，以及為什麼至少從關鍵角度來看，我認為這不是一個問題。我們有一家名為 SFL 的公司，我們已經從事這項業務 20 年了，我們做了很多支付方面的工作。我們做了很多證券化工作。我想我們已經20年沒有發生過壞帳了。所以我的觀點是，對於非銀行金融機構來說，關鍵在於銀行要積極主動地與這些借款人互動，而不僅僅是把一張紙束之高閣。

For example, in our bucket, you'd find REITs well, obviously, one of our best businesses is our real estate business, and we're constantly in touch with these folks around payments, capital raising, et cetera. So I think if I was sitting in your seat, one of the things that I'd be curiously interested in is what are the asset classes within the non-financial investment group and then -- or non-depository, I beg your pardon.

例如，在我們的投資組合中，你會發現 REITs，很顯然，我們最好的業務之一就是房地產業務，我們經常與這些人就支付、資本籌集等問題保持聯繫。所以我想，如果我坐在你的位置上，我會很感興趣的一件事是，非金融投資集團的資產類別有哪些，然後——或者非存款類資產，請原諒。

And then I want to know how engaged the banks are day in and day out with those borrowers. Clark, what would you add to that?

然後，我想知道銀行在日常運作中與這些借款人的互動程度如何。克拉克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

So I think, one, as you sort of hit NBFI, I think, is a fairly broad undefined category from a regulatory standpoint. So I think the important thing to know is, as Chris said, it's not one thing. It's a for us a collection of businesses that don't necessarily align perfectly to those reg reports.

所以我認為，首先，當你談到非銀行金融機構（NBFI）時，我認為，從監管角度來看，這是一個相當廣泛且未定義的類別。所以我覺得重要的是要明白，正如克里斯所說，這不是一件事。對我們來說，這是一個由一些企業組成的集合體，這些企業未必完全符合那些監管報告的要求。

But the more important thing is they are businesses we've been in for a long time where we have very deep expertise and we generally apply our strong relationship strategy to that. And in many of these cases, we have what we refer to as targeted scale. We have real deep expertise in a very targeted segment of clients, and we performed really well in those groups.

但更重要的是，這些都是我們長期涉足的行業，我們擁有非常深厚的專業知識，我們通常會將我們強大的關係策略應用於這些行業。在許多情況下，我們稱之為有針對性的規模化。我們在特定客戶群中擁有深厚的專業知識，並且在這些群體中表現出色。

For example, we have separate teams that deal with each and every part of the groups that we have.

例如，我們有專門的團隊負責處理我們旗下每個團隊的各個部分。

And this is Mohit Ramani. One thing I might add too is I reviewed the deal files and structures and feel really good about where we sit. I've been Chief Credit Officer twice in my career journey. So my ability to dig in on these structures is quite strong. We don't play in the more esoteric areas of NBFI. Again, if you think about again the REITs and CLOs and things like that, I think that's pretty much down the fairway relative to risk appetite.

這位是莫希特·拉瑪尼。我還要補充一點，我審閱了交易文件和架構，對我們目前的處境感到非常滿意。在我的職業生涯中，我曾兩次擔任首席信貸官。因此，我挖掘這些結構的能力相當強。我們不涉足非銀行金融機構中較為深奧的領域。再說一遍，如果你再想想房地產投資信託基金（REITs）和抵押貸款證券（CLO）之類的東西，我認為相對於風險偏好而言，這已經相當不錯了。

And also, we have a strong portfolio management structure. So we have a very advanced limit structure that prevents outside growth. So no area of the bank can grow to Infinity. We do have very strong limits in place as well to control growth across portfolios.

此外，我們也擁有強大的投資組合管理結構。因此，我們擁有非常先進的限制結構，可以防止外部成長。因此，銀行的任何領域都不可能成長到無窮大。我們也設定了非常嚴格的限制措施來控制各個投資組合的成長。

Thanks for that Mo. Does that answer the question?

謝謝你，莫。這樣回答了這個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Brian Foran, Truth Securities.

Brian Foran，Truth Securities。

I was going to ask about credit, and I appreciate all the detail. I have to call out that you included charge-offs to the penny in the earnings release. So I'm impressed that counted that last $0.56. Maybe if I could shift to growth, though.

我本來想問關於信用方面的問題，非常感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。我必須指出，你們在財報中精確到分地列出了沖銷金額。所以，我很佩服你居然把最後那0.56美元也算進去了。不過，如果我能轉向成長型投資就好了。

It's interesting in the loan book and the supplement, it's kind of like two halves. It's the C&I book growing nicely. It's now up 8% year-over-year. And then everything else kind of something to $50 billion and being down 7% year-over-year. As we sharpen our pencils over the next year or two, is there any help you can give in terms of like is there a target size for some of these books?

貸款帳簿和補充帳簿很有意思，它們就像是兩個部分。C&I 業務成長動能良好。目前年增8%。其他方面則大致為 500 億美元，較去年同期下降 7%。在接下來的一兩年裡，當我們開始著手準備這些書籍時，您能否提供一些幫助，例如，這些書籍是否有目標篇幅？

Or is there a timing when you think new production starts outweighing some of the lower yielding stuff rolling off and pay downs just how to think about the part of the book that's shrinking and what the end goal is there?

或者，是否存在這樣一個時間點，您認為新生產的規模開始超過一些低收益的到期和償還的規模？如何看待帳簿中不斷縮減的部分，以及最終目標是什麼？

Yes. So obviously, we can give you a lot of clarity on where we think the shrink is going to come from because those are high-quality mortgages, principally to doctors and dentists that roll off. And based on the curve we can give you great estimates of what we think is going to roll off.

是的。所以很明顯，我們可以清楚地告訴大家，我們認為經濟萎縮將來自哪裡，因為這些都是高品質的抵押貸款，主要面向醫生和牙醫，這些貸款即將到期。根據曲線，我們可以對即將下降的幅度做出很好的估計。

In terms of what we're actually going to put on our balance sheet because of our underwrite and distribute model, that's a little harder because a lot of the capital that we raised, we actually place with others. But I can tell you, I mentioned in my comments that our -- basically our middle market C&I book, our backlog is 2 times what it was last year. One of the areas -- a few areas where I think you're going to see a pickup.

就我們實際上要列入資產負債表的金額而言，由於我們採用的是承銷和分銷模式，這就有點困難了，因為我們籌集的許多資金實際上都交給了其他人。但我可以告訴你，我在評論中提到過，我們——基本上是我們的中端市場 C&I 訂單，我們的積壓訂單是去年的兩倍。其中一個區域——或者說幾個我認為你會看到皮卡的地方。

In the fourth quarter, we'll basically accelerate our C&I book by about $1 billion. And I think you'll see it continue to accelerate from there in 2026. The other areas where I think we'll get some benefit. One is transaction CRE. Right now, you can see that CRE is sort of coming into equilibrium. But I think you'll see us actually grow our CRE outstandings in 2026.

第四季度，我們將加快工商業貸款業務的擴張，增幅約 10 億美元。我認為從 2026 年開始，這種趨勢將繼續加速發展。我認為我們在其他方面也會受益。其中之一是交易房地產。目前來看，商業不動產市場正逐漸趨於平衡。但我認為，到 2026 年，我們的商業房地產未償債務實際上將會增加。

Also, Clark mentioned this in his comments. We have not had a lot of middle-market M&A activity. We have very large pipelines, but we haven't had a lot coming out of the pipeline in spite of the fact that we had a strong investment banking and debt placement fees. It was not driven by M&A. That will help us in 2026.

克拉克在他的評論中也提到了這一點。中端市場併購活動不多。我們擁有非常龐大的專案儲備，但儘管我們獲得了強大的投資銀行和債務融資費用，卻並沒有從這些儲備中產出多少產品。這並非由併購驅動。這將對我們2026年有所幫助。

And I continue to believe this tax bill is really important. This accelerated depreciation, I think, will bode well for growth. The other thing that obviously we haven't seen, as you look at our numbers, is utilization. Utilization actually ticked down. However, we feel good about that because the reason it ticked down was large commitments that we brought on new clients in our institutional bank, whereas in our middle market, we actually did have a lift in utilization. Does that help you?

我仍然認為這項稅收法案非常重要。我認為，這種加速貶值將有利於經濟成長。從我們的數據來看，顯然我們還沒有看到利用率。利用率實際上略有下降。不過，我們對此感到欣慰，因為下降的原因是我們在機構銀行引入了新客戶的大量承諾，而我們的中端市場實際上利用率有所提高。這樣對你有幫助嗎？

That's awesome detail. It's good to hear the CRE book is starting to flip. I guess one follow-up, if I could ask it. When I look at mortgage, home equity and other consumer call it, $30 billion right now or I guess, 30% of loans. Any framing you'd give like do you want that to eventually get to [20] before it stabilizes, [25]? Any kind of bigger than a bread basket sizing on where (technical difficulty) land?

這個細節太棒了。很高興聽到商業房地產市場開始好轉。我想問一個後續問題，如果可以的話。當我查看抵押貸款、房屋淨值貸款和其他消費貸款時，目前總額為 300 億美元，或者我猜，佔貸款總額的 30%。任何你給出的框架，例如你是否希望它最終達到[20]然後才穩定下來，[25]？比麵包籃大的任何尺寸的東西，在（技術難度）著陸點？

Yes. We've always said we want to have a balance. We need both consumer and we need commercial, which means, first of all, we've got to replace some of the runoff. I think a couple of areas where you'll see us replace the runoff that's actually good for us because most of the yield on those mortgages that are running off are about 3.3% or so.

是的。我們一直都說我們希望保持平衡。我們需要消費者用水和商業用水，這意味著，首先，我們必須替換一部分徑流。我認為在某些領域，我們將用剩餘資金替換那些流失的貸款，這實際上對我們來說是件好事，因為那些流失的抵押貸款的收益率大多在 3.3% 左右。

You'll see us step up in terms of home mortgage. We obviously have a whole lot of customers that have a lot of equity in their homes. There's not a lot of houses that are trading. We have that business now. We're investing in some technology to have it be a better client experience. That's one area.

你會看到我們在房屋抵押貸款方面加強。我們顯然有很多客戶在他們的房產中擁有很高的淨值。交易的房屋並不多。我們現在有這項業務。我們正在投資一些技術，以提升客戶體驗。這是其中一個面向。

The other business we have that is a really good business, but it's very dependent upon both the vintage of student loans and also the curve is our student loan refinance business. We think the -- we think interest rates have to come down another 100 to 150 basis points for that to really kick in.

我們還有一項非常好的業務，但它非常依賴學生貸款的年份和利率曲線，那就是我們的學生貸款再融資業務。我們認為，利率必須再下降 100 到 150 個基點，才能真正發揮作用。

Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

Ryan Nash，高盛集團。

Chris or Clark, Chris, I think you talked about crawling before you walk on the buyback, and I think you highlighted $100 million in 4Q. I guess, just given how robust the capital levels are. Maybe just talk a little bit how you think about the pacing beyond 4Q. And I'm assuming if your targets work out and you sound like you have a high degree of confidence in them, you probably believe the stock is going to be a lot higher. So I guess, why not be more aggressive at this point given all the tailwinds that you have in front of you?

克里斯或克拉克，克里斯，我想你談到了股票回購要循序漸進，而且我想你還重點提到了第四季度的 1 億美元。我想，這大概是因為資本水準非常穩健吧。或許可以稍微談談你對第四節之後比賽節奏的看法。我假設，如果你的目標得以實現，而且聽起來你對它們很有信心，那麼你可能會認為股價會更高。所以我想，既然你面前有這麼多順風，為什麼不採取更積極主動的策略呢？

Yes. Totally fair question. This is Clark. Ryan. A very fair question. I would say, just from a timing standpoint as we sit here today, just a couple of things to consider. One, this is really the first time we've been comfortably above that 10% mark number. We've sort of talked about running at the higher level amid some level of uncertainty. We are getting close to being in our dividend payout target range of 30% to 50%.

是的。問得好。這是克拉克。瑞恩。問得好。就目前的時間表而言，我認為有幾點需要考慮。第一，這確實是我們第一次輕鬆超過 10% 這個數字。我們已經討論過在一定程度的不確定性下，如何在更高水準的賽事中競爭。我們即將達到30%至50%的股利支付目標範圍。

So this quarter will be just a hair north of 50%. So we want to get that more squarely in. And then there is still a little bit of broad uncertainty, although that feels like it is normalizing and stabilizing a little bit more. So I think your question is right. I think the point in highlighting the denominator and the flexibility around that in my walk on ROTCE is exactly that.

所以本季將略高於 50%。所以我們希望更明確地落實這一點。不過，目前仍存在一些普遍的不確定性，儘管這種不確定性似乎逐漸正常化和穩定下來。所以我覺得你的問題問得對。我認為，我在 ROTCE 的演講中強調分母及其靈活性，其意義就在於此。

So that is a lever we can pull will be a little bit more directive, I think in the guidance call for '26 on exactly how much to expect. But I think that $100 million for the fourth quarter is likely going to be the low level as we move forward, subject to the normal macro caveat movements.

所以我們可以採取的措施之一，我認為在 2026 年的指導方針中，會更有針對性地說明預期金額。但我認為，隨著我們不斷向前推進，1億美元可能是第四季度的最低水平，當然，這還要受到正常的宏觀經濟波動的影響。

And if I could just -- if I could ask a follow-up to Brian's question maybe to put a finer point on it. As you think about reaching these targeted levels, 15 plus ROTCE and 3.25% plus NIM, do you think we get earning asset growth along the way and what's the right way to think about earning asset growth.

如果可以的話──如果我可以就布萊恩的問題再提一個後續問題，以便更詳細地闡述一下。當您考慮達到這些目標水準（15%以上的ROTCE和3.25%以上的NIM）時，您認為我們能否在此過程中獲得獲利資產成長？思考獲利資產成長的正確方法是什麼？

And related to that, would you guys take action to accelerate the runoff of consumer loans so that you could start to return to net growth?

與此相關的是，你們是否會採取措施加快消費貸款的償還速度，以便能夠開始恢復淨成長？

So a couple of things. Obviously, that last part of your question is always an option, and we're always looking at all the pieces and parts. We could take action there. I also mentioned some CMOs and some CMBS that we could take action on.

有兩件事。顯然，你問題的最後一部分始終是一個選項，我們始終會考慮所有因素和組成部分。我們可以在那裡採取行動。我還提到了一些我們可以採取行動的 CMO 和 CMBS。

In terms of earning assets, I've always said you'll see us really grow our earning assets when the markets are in a little bit of dislocation because our job is really to serve our clients. Right now, we can do a better job of serving our clients basically by placing paper elsewhere because of our risk appetite vis-a-vis others. You'll see it grow. And I've also said that I think probably the right place for a bank our size going forward in terms of the loan-to-deposit ratio is probably mid-70s, and we're obviously not there right now you.

就獲利資產而言，我一直都說，當市場出現一些混亂時，我們就會真正實現獲利資產的成長，因為我們的工作就是服務客戶。目前，由於我們相對於其他公司的風險承受能力，我們可以透過將債券投資於其他公司來更好地服務我們的客戶。你會看到它成長。我還說過，我認為對於我們這樣規模的銀行來說，未來合適的存貸比可能在 70% 左右，而我們顯然還沒有達到這個水平。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

I just wanted to re-ask the question that Ebrahim put forth. And I'm sorry to keep beating a dead horse, but the stock is down 2.5%. Clearly, it's not a 2.5% down quarter and certainly not a down 2.5% outlook given how you walked us through the ROTCE.

我只是想再次問易卜拉欣提出的問題。我很抱歉老生常談，但該股下跌了 2.5%。顯然，本季不會下降 2.5%，而且鑑於您先前向我們解釋的 ROTCE，前景也肯定不會下降 2.5%。

So I guess my question is, Chris, we heard you loud and clear in terms of your priorities for capital I think the concern -- the specific concern that we're hearing from investors is your multiple. And in that -- and obviously, there were some conjecture out in the market that you were a high bid for First Bank.

所以我想問的是，克里斯，我們已經清楚地聽到了你關於資本優先事項的闡述，我認為投資者關注的焦點——具體來說，是你的估值倍數。顯然，當時市場上有一些猜測，認為你對第一銀行的出價很高。

But in that very tight screen that you talked about, how is pricing taken into account, how sensitive would you be in terms of book dilution, you also went through the First Niagara deal, of course. How sensitive are you to book dilution? And maybe walk us through very plainly the opportunity to by your bank at 1.37 times tangible book versus using that as currency given seller expectations?

但是，在你提到的那個非常嚴格的篩選中，定價是如何考慮的，你對帳面稀釋有多敏感，當然，你也談到了 First Niagara 的交易。你對書籍稀釋有多敏感？或許您可以非常清楚地向我們解釋一下，在賣方預期的情況下，以帳面價值的 1.37 倍購買您的銀行帳戶，與將其作為貨幣使用相比，有什麼區別？

Yes. Well, I think we've been pretty clear on this. The real focus, Erika, for us is to get our return on tangible common equity first up to 15 and then beyond it. And we also -- when you mentioned buying our bank, we mentioned that we're going to buy $100 million of our stock in this quarter. So that's exactly what we're doing.

是的。嗯，我想我們在這點上已經說得很清楚了。艾莉卡，對我們來說，真正的重點是先將有形普通股股東權益回報率提高到 15%，然後再超過這個數字。還有，當您提到收購我們銀行時，我們也提到我們將在本季回購價值 1 億美元的股票。所以，這正是我們正在做的。

And you can rest assured, we are -- I am personally sensitive to tangible book value dilution. I was here when we announced the First Niagara deal, and I understand the extreme sensitivity on behalf of many investors with respect to tangible book value dilution. But I think I've been pretty clear, our focus from a strategic perspective is to drive our return on tangible common equity.

您可以放心，我們確實如此——我個人對有形帳面價值稀釋非常敏感。我當時就在現場，親眼見證了我們宣布收購 First Niagara 的交易，我理解許多投資者對有形帳面價值稀釋的極端敏感性。但我認為我已經說得很清楚了，從策略角度來看，我們的重點是提高有形普通股的報酬率。

That's helpful, Chris. And just as a follow-up question to Clark. As you think about the potential for further balance sheet restructuring, what conditions would you be looking for in terms of the rate backdrop or if any other preconditions when thinking about that decision tree?

那很有幫助，克里斯。我還有一個問題想問克拉克。在考慮進一步重組資產負債表的可能性時，您會關注利率背景方面的哪些條件，或者在考慮該決策樹時是否還有其他前提條件？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Erika. So I mean, probably not different than what we've said, which is our first goal is to really support clients. I think realistically, given the amount of capital we have over time, it's going to be hard to deploy all of that in further in of organic client growth. So we will look at the right opportunistic moments potentially to either use capital for share repurchase or to do whether it's the CMOs or the mortgage loans, think about how to monetize those differently.

是的。謝謝你的提問，艾莉卡。所以我的意思是，這可能和我們之前說過的沒什麼不同，那就是我們的首要目標是真正支持客戶。我認為，從現實角度來看，考慮到我們目前擁有的資本規模，隨著時間的推移，很難將所有資金用於進一步促進客戶的自然成長。因此，我們將尋找合適的時機，利用資金進行股票回購，或考慮如何以不同的方式將抵押貸款或債券變現。

But I mean, it's not -- again, it's not something we've spent an enormous amount of time to this point, just given where our ratios were and our desire to get to the top end of that range and to get our earnings back to our dividend payout ratio. But I think now that we're sort of getting to that area, you'll see us -- well, you won't see us. You should know we will be working harder on thinking through these scenarios and just understanding what are opportunities -- what our best opportunities are to deploy that capital.

但我的意思是，這並不是——再說一遍，到目前為止，我們並沒有在這方面投入大量時間，只是考慮到我們當時的比率以及我們想要達到該範圍上限並使我們的收入恢復到股息支付率的願望。但我覺得現在我們差不多要到那個階段了，你們將會看到我們──好吧，你們將看不到我們。你應該知道，我們將更努力地思考這些情況，並了解有哪些機會——我們如何才能最好地運用這些資本。

I do think it all assumes a good constructive macro environment because, obviously, if that changes, we would have a different view on capital use.

我認為這一切都建立在一個良好的、建設性的宏觀環境之上，因為很顯然，如果宏觀環境發生變化，我們對資本使用的看法就會有所不同。

And just really quick follow-up. You mentioned the upgrade by Fitch and the positive outlook for Moody's. Does that have any impact in terms of how free you feel about making decisions on capital distribution or balance sheet restructuring going forward?

還有一個簡短的後續問題。您提到了惠譽上調評級以及穆迪的積極展望。這是否會對您未來在資本分配或資產負債表重組方面做出決策的自由度產生任何影響？

Yes. I think -- I mean, one thing I'd say is we have done a lot of work, as you know, well, to reposition the balance sheet and to engage with a variety of constituents, including the rating agencies, so they understand what we're doing, why we're doing it and what our intentions are. So to the extent we wanted to go down that path, we would probably spend some time with them to make sure that we fully understand their reaction to those things because getting the rating is a lot of work, keeping the rating is a lot of work, and that's very important to us. So I don't know that, that would be the driver of the decision, but it's certainly an important input.

是的。我認為——我的意思是，我想說的一點是，正如你所知，我們已經做了很多工作來重新調整資產負債表，並與包括評級機構在內的各種利益相關者進行溝通，以便他們了解我們正在做什麼、為什麼這樣做以及我們的意圖是什麼。所以，如果我們想走這條路，我們可能會花些時間和他們在一起，確保我們完全了解他們對這些事情的反應，因為獲得評級需要付出很多努力，保持評級也需要付出很多努力，這對我們來說非常重要。所以我不知道這是否會成為決定的驅動因素，但這無疑是一個重要的考慮因素。

One of the things that does -- the upgrade does for us, Erika, is it enables us to bid on some conduit deals that tend to bring pretty significant escrow balances that otherwise we were not able to bid on.

升級為我們帶來的一個好處是——Erika，它使我們能夠競標一些管道交易，這些交易往往會帶來相當大的託管餘額，否則我們無法競標這些交易。

That's in our commercial real estate servicing book.

這在我們的商業房地產服務手冊裡有記載。

John Pancari, Evercore.

John Pancari，Evercore。

Good morning. Just on the expense side, particularly well contained this quarter, and you're running around a 62% cash efficiency ratio now. This year, you're going to put up pretty solid positive operating leverage given the revenue dynamic and the structural benefit to the margin.

早安.僅就支出方面而言，本季控制得尤其好，目前現金效率比率約為 62%。今年，鑑於收入動態和利潤率的結構性優勢，你們將實現相當穩健的正向經營槓桿。

As you look into 2026 and you weigh the investments you're making, I mean, what is -- how should we think about a reasonable level of operating leverage as you look at the year and what -- related to that, what efficiency ratio was baked into your medium-term 15% ROTCE target?

展望 2026 年，在權衡你的投資時，我的意思是，我們該如何看待這一年的合理經營槓桿？以及，與此相關的是，你的中期 15% ROTCE 目標中融入了怎樣的效率比率？

Yes. So Look, we've guided to being kind of 4% this year. I think in the medium to longer term, I would expect to be probably in the 2% to 3% range, we may be -- we'll guide you this in January, maybe a little bit higher next year still, but not appreciably. But we expect to fully deliver positive operating leverage every year.

是的。所以你看，我們預計今年的成長目標大概是 4%。我認為從中長期來看，預計可能會在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內，我們可能會——我們會在 1 月份向您提供這方面的指導，明年可能會略高一些，但不會明顯。但我們預計每年都能完全實現正向經營槓桿。

I don't know that we've targeted exactly what that amount will be. This year, we had -- we promised fee-based operating leverage of 100 basis points. We feel confident we can deliver that or in excess of that. So we'll come back to you with expectations as we move forward. But obviously, the most valuable thing to driving your efficiency ratio down is more NII given that shows up with a zero efficiency ratio as we continue to do that and drive towards NIM's north of 3, then I think you will see that efficiency ratio to continue to come down over time. We haven't set again, another target on that, but it would get closer and closer, I think, to the broad peer group.

我不知道我們是否已經確定了具體的目標金額。今年，我們承諾提供 100 個基點的基於費用的營運槓桿。我們有信心能夠達到甚至超過這個目標。所以，隨著我們工作的推進，我們會及時向您報告預期情況。但顯然，降低效率比率最有價值的方法是增加淨利息收入，因為淨利息收入在效率比率為零時就會顯現出來。如果我們繼續這樣做，並努力使淨利息收入超過 3，那麼我認為你會看到效率比率隨著時間的推移而繼續下降。我們還沒有再次設定新的目標，但我認為它會越來越接近同儕群體。

I will tell you, we don't spend an enormous amount of time talking specifically about the efficiency ratio here. We're really trying to drive good organic growth against our strategic objectives here and get the ROTCE up. And frankly, the fee-based businesses are always going to carry a little bit higher efficiency ratios. So we may run above the peer group over time, and I think we're comfortable with that given the mix of business.

我可以告訴你，我們在這裡並沒有花大量時間專門討論效率比率。我們正在努力推動良好的內生成長，以實現我們的策略目標，並提高 ROTCE（股東權益回報率）。坦白說，按服務收費的企業總是會具有更高的效率比率。因此，從長遠來看，我們的業績可能會超過同行，考慮到我們的業務組合，我認為我們對此感到滿意。

Okay. Clark. And then on the on that 2026 margin and your expectation for about 3.25%-plus medium-term margin. When it comes to the rate backdrop. I appreciate your color you gave that it's the forward curve, you're assuming in a steeper curve will be better in the 50s ballpark beta.

好的。克拉克。然後是 2026 年的利潤率，以及您對中期利潤率在 3.25% 以上的預期。談到利率背景。我很欣賞你給出的顏色，它代表了前向曲線，你假設在 50 左右的 beta 值範圍內，更陡峭的曲線會更好。

Is there any other way you could help us with sensitivity around the level of Fed funds and a level of the 10-year to help provide the guardrails around those expectations. I mean, we've seen a number of banks that have put out their targets here and clearly in the volatile rate environment, they're kind of easily shifting -- easily getting shifted off their targets. And what can you give us to give us confidence on that front?

您能否以其他方式幫助我們提高對聯邦基金利率和 10 年期公債殖利率的敏感度，從而為這些預期提供保障？我的意思是，我們已經看到許多銀行公佈了他們的目標，但顯然在利率波動劇烈的環境下，他們的目標很容易發生變化——很容易偏離目標。那麼，您能給我們什麼，讓我們在這方面有信心呢？

Yes. Fair question. So one, I would say, we've been trying to drive to a relatively neutral rate position, and I think we have. To your question, if you unpack that, and you think about the short-term sensitivity and the mid-term sensitivity and just candidly, we generally are focused a little bit more on the 5-year than the 10-year just because our investment portfolio duration is really more driven by the five year.

是的。問得好。所以，首先，我想說，我們一直在努力將利率推向相對中性的位置，我認為我們已經做到了。對於你的問題，如果你仔細分析一下，考慮一下短期敏感性和中期敏感性，坦白說，我們通常更關注 5 年期而不是 10 年期，因為我們的投資組合久期實際上更多地受 5 年期驅動。

We would view the short-term beta -- or the short-term rate sensitivity really around betas in the low 40s. So given our swap position currently, given the floating rate nature of the book, which is obviously natural asset sensitivity and give it the deposit book we would view anything kind of at low 40s to be pretty neutral to rate cuts and anything above that to be beneficial.

我們認為短期貝塔係數（或短期利率敏感度）實際上在 40 左右的貝塔係數範圍內。因此，鑑於我們目前的互換頭寸，鑑於該帳簿的浮動利率性質（這顯然是自然的資產敏感性），以及考慮到存款帳簿，我們認為 40 左右的利率對降息的影響相當中性，而高於 40 的利率則會有利。

So it's really about getting into the various deposit portfolios managing those as effectively as we can. We have 55 data on the cuts to date. I don't think we expect that on the incremental. In fact, we expect the incremental this year to be closer to that low 40s to kind of neutralize it, but that remains to be seen.

所以，關鍵在於深入了解各種存款組合，並盡可能有效地管理它們。截至目前，我們掌握了 55 則關於裁員的數據。我認為我們不會期望在增量方面實現這一點。事實上，我們預計今年的增量將接近 40 左右，以抵消其影響，但這仍有待觀察。

And then the longer term, that five-year rate is really about reinvestments in the portfolio, which we have a fair amount of that every quarter. So that's not the type of thing that I think really impacts, say, fourth quarter [25] -- but as you go out through '26 and '27, consistently lower reinvestment rates, i.e., a flatter curve would impact some of the returns on that over time.

從長遠來看，五年期殖利率實際上與投資組合的再投資有關，而我們每季都會進行相當多的再投資。所以，我認為這類事情不會真正影響到比如說第四季[25]——但是，隨著26年和27年的到來，持續降低的再投資率，即更平坦的曲線，會隨著時間的推移影響到一些回報。

So the forward curve, which is generally demonstrating some steepness gives us, I think, the benefit on that front end as well as some additional reinvestment juice. I think we have some ability to manage the flattening curve to a degree, but it really will depend on how severe the differences are from what the current forward looks like.

因此，目前普遍呈現陡峭趨勢的遠期曲線，我認為，不僅能為我們帶來前端收益，還能帶來一些額外的再投資動力。我認為我們有一定的能力來控制疫情曲線的趨平，但這真的取決於疫情發展趨勢與當前預期之間的差異有多大。

Ken Usdin, Bernstein Society General Group.

Ken Usdin，伯恩斯坦協會總團體。

I just want to ask a quick question. I know you talked about betas before, but I just want to ask you a little bit about deposit growth. It continues to be driven. It looks like in the commercial segment. Retail segment is still a little bit down.

我只想問一個簡單的問題。我知道你之前談過 beta 值，但我還想問你一些關於存款成長的問題。它仍在運轉。看起來像是在商業領域。零售業板塊依然略有下滑。

So just wondering like how you're managing to future deposit growth because, obviously, the commercial comes in with a little -- with a higher cost in your mix relative to how you (technical difficulty). I guess I'm just trying to get at like how that informs like the NIM trajectory in terms of where you expect deposit growth to come from going forward?

所以我想知道您是如何應對未來存款成長的，因為很明顯，商業投資會增加一些成本——相對於您目前的投資方式而言，商業投資在您的投資組合中佔比更高。（技術難題）我只是想了解，這如何影響淨利差的走勢，以及您預期未來存款成長將來自哪裡？

Yes. Good question. So maybe like just a little trip through history, when we left the second quarter, we had shared that we let a fair bit of commercial deposits leave in the quarter, excess deposits because of rate competition. We thought we would get those back, we have, and that is for two reasons.

是的。問得好。所以，就像一次簡單的歷史回顧，在第二季結束時，我們曾提到，由於利率競爭，我們在該季度放走了相當多的商業存款，即超額存款。我們以為我們會把那些東西要回來，我們也確實要回來了，這有兩個原因。

One would be there is just more rational competition. I think others backed off kind of high at Fed funds or higher level payment on commercial deposits. So given that those are more attractive rates. We brought some of those deposits back. And then we've had good C&I loan growth, and that's driven new to key deposit growth on the commercial side.

一種解釋是，競爭更理性了。我認為其他人對聯邦基金利率或更高水準的商業存款支付有所退縮。所以，這些利率更具吸引力。我們把其中一些存款帶了回來。此外，我們的工商業貸款成長良好，這帶動了商業領域新存款和關鍵存款的成長。

So we feel very good about that and that is kind of in line with what we expected. Overall commercial rates despite the growth came down a bit basis points, the overall rate. And that's a combination of solid pricing as expected, but also increase in non-interest-bearing in that commercial book as well. And that's a reflection of both our commercial servicing business, escrows as well as those new to key clients that are bringing operating accounts with them.

所以我們對此感到非常滿意，這基本上也符合我們的預期。儘管成長，但整體商業費率略有下降，整體費率下降了幾個基點。這既得益於預期的穩健定價，也得益於商業貸款中無息貸款的增加。這不僅反映了我們的商業服務業務、託管業務，也反映了那些將營運帳戶帶入我們業務的重要客戶的新業務。

So I think that's a very good mix. We also saw consumer come down a few basis points, and that's really that sort of static overall balance is really underneath a mix out of CDs into MMDA. So we have purposely not been aggressive on CD rates relative to competition. We've had, frankly, still pretty decent retention on the CDs, but we're seeing a lot more of that going to MM which we're very comfortable with and we're getting better rates on those, obviously.

所以我認為這是一個很好的組合。我們也看到消費者下降了幾個基點，這實際上是 CD 向 MMDA 混合的靜態整體平衡的體現。因此，我們有意沒有在CD利率方面採取比競爭對手更激進的策略。坦白說，我們的 CD 留存率仍然相當不錯，但我們看到越來越多的客戶轉向了 MM，我們對此非常滿意，而且顯然，我們在 MM 上獲得了更高的利率。

So we're seeing kind of static balances but better mix from our standpoint. And that's what we would expect to see as we go forward in a down rate environment. And I think that's just kind of the natural client behaviour as well.

所以我們看到的是某種程度的靜態平衡，但從我們的角度來看，混合比例有所改善。而這正是我們在利率下行環境下預期會看到的。我認為這也是客戶的自然行為。

And then obviously, in any particular quarter, you see more opportunity to raise commercial deposits because they come in chunkier bunches. I think over the time frame that we've been talking about, which is late '27. You continue to see some opportunity to grow our consumer client base, whether it's just net household growth, whether it's the mass affluent where we've seen $3 billion of deposits come in over the last two years, right? So I think there's definite avenues over the time frame we're talking about where our consumer business can continue to deliver really strong and high-quality deposit growth.

顯然，在任何特定季度，由於商業存款成批出現，因此你會看到更多籌集商業存款的機會。我認為在我們討論的時間段內，也就是 2027 年末。您仍然看到一些擴大消費者客戶群的機會，無論是家庭淨增長，還是過去兩年我們看到30億美元存款流入的大眾富裕階層，對嗎？所以我認為，在我們討論的時間範圍內，我們的消費者業務肯定有途徑繼續實現強勁且高品質的存款成長。

Great color. And one follow-up, your Investment Bank continues to do well and it seems like it's on track for improved fourth quarter. I just wanted to just ask you just talk about the environment and any broadening you're seeing in terms of the various businesses in terms of the environment that we're in, where it seems to be an improving backdrop along the way?

顏色很棒。另外，貴公司投資銀行業績持續良好，第四季業績似乎有望改善。我只是想請您談談當前的環境，以及您所看到的各種企業在當前環境下的發展趨勢，目前看來，我們所處的環境正在不斷改善？

Yes, Ken, it's Chris. I think where we're seeing improvement is there's obviously been a lot of transaction announcements, but it's really been larger deals. We're obviously a middle market bank. There hasn't been a whole lot of M&A volume within the middle market, and we really see that picking up. So that's an area that's picking up.

是的，肯，我是克里斯。我認為我們看到的進步之處在於，雖然有很多交易公告發布，但實際上都是規模更大的交易。我們顯然是一家中型市場銀行。中端市場的併購交易量一直不大，但我們看到這種情況逐漸改善。所以這是一個正在復甦的領域。

And as everybody knows, the private equity firms have not been exiting much at all over the last three years and the inverse relationship between return on capital and holding period is real. And so I think that's going to be a significant step-up. Our goal in that business is to get it to $1 billion in revenue.

眾所周知，在過去三年裡，私募股權公司幾乎沒有退出任何投資項目，資本報酬率與持有期之間的反比關係是真實存在的。所以我認為這將是一個重大進步。我們在該業務領域的目標是實現10億美元的營收。

In 2021, we were [$940 million] or some such number, but that was obviously an outlier over a year. But I think with all the hiring we've done and what I think is a pretty strong pipeline, I'm looking forward to what that business can do over the next few years.

2021 年，我們的收入是 9.4 億美元左右，但這顯然是一年中的異常值。但我認為，憑藉我們所做的所有招募工作以及我認為相當強大的後備人才儲備，我很期待這家公司在未來幾年能取得怎樣的成就。

I might just add one other -- maybe one other quick comment to the deposit point. As much as I know, the world loves loan growth, this remixing opportunity. The real benefit of that other than the pickup in yield is the reduced demand on new deposit balances. So we can be a little bit more discerning on which ones we take and at which price. I think that's valuable as long as we're in this position. And I just think that's something that we're seeing the benefit of.

我可能還要補充一點——關於存款這一點，我可能還要再補充一點簡短的評論。據我所知，世界喜歡貸款成長，喜歡這種重新組合的機會。除了殖利率上升之外，真正的益處在於降低了對新增存款餘額的需求。這樣我們就可以更有選擇性地選擇購買哪些產品以及以什麼價格購買。我認為，只要我們處於這種地位，這都是有價值的。我覺得我們正在從中受益。

And then the second piece is we have continued to carry more cash than we intended to. That's a function of, again, strong deposit growth in the quarter. And I think you will see us bring that down over time. That's not going to have a lot of NII impact, but it will help the NIM.

第二點是，我們攜帶的現金比我們預想的還要多。這再次得益於本季強勁的存款成長。我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到我們逐步降低這個數字。這不會對淨利息收入產生太大影響，但會對淨利息收入有所幫助。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

So Chris, you guys have kind of leaned into hiring investments, and you certainly had the revenue wherewithal to do so. What stage would you say you're at in terms of some of the hiring you've done and those investments more broadly?

所以克里斯，你們似乎已經加大了招募投資的力度，而且你們也確實有足夠的收入來做到這一點。就您目前進行的招募工作和更廣泛的投資而言，您認為您處於什麼階段？

I guess, I'm sort of wondering if we'd now seen most of the related expense lift kind of when we think about expense growth from here or things like magnitude of fee-based positive operating leverage. And Clark, I know you touched on operating leverage a bit a couple of questions ago, but just how are you thinking about that stuff more broadly?

我想，我有點想知道，當我們考慮未來的費用成長或基於費用的正向經營槓桿的規模等因素時，我們是否已經看到了大部分相關的費用成長。克拉克，我知道你在前幾個問題中稍微提到了經營槓桿，但你更廣泛地是如何看待這些問題的呢？

Sure. So our goal, again, was to grow by 10% the folks in our wealth business, specifically focusing on mass of fluid. We are basically there on that one. As you look at our middle market, we've made huge progress. We're more than halfway there. As you look at our institutional bank, we're pretty far along there as well.

當然。所以我們的目標仍然是讓財富管理業務的人員成長 10%，尤其要專注於流動資金的數量。我們基本上已經達成共識了。從我們的中端市場來看，我們已經取得了巨大的進步。我們已經完成了一半以上。從我們的機構銀行的角度來看，我們也取得了相當大的進展。

And so what you're going to see is over the next period of time, the ex-upfront expense will start to wane. The important piece is, although we've been fortunate, and as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've been fortunate that some of these folks have hit the ground running a lot faster than we thought they would.

因此，在接下來的這段時間裡，你會看到前期費用開始減少。重要的是，雖然我們很幸運，而且正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的，我們很幸運，這些人中的一些人迅速進入狀態，速度比我們預想的要快得多。

For example, we hired a group out of Chicago and a group out of Los Angeles who's been particularly productive in our middle market. We would expect, Scott, that there'd be basically a 12 to 18-month lag on these folks hitting full production stride. So expense still running out a bit, but we're getting the benefit going forward of these folks getting on the platform and being successful.

例如，我們從芝加哥聘請了一個團隊，從洛杉磯聘請了一個團隊，他們在我們面向中端市場的專案中表現得特別出色。史考特，我們預計這些人要達到全面生產水平，基本上會有 12 到 18 個月的延遲。所以雖然支出還在增加，但這些人加入平台並取得成功，讓我們從中受益匪淺。

I think the other piece there, Scott is one, as we've said in the past, we have a pretty good view on the right kind of compensation to return profile. And if it gets too heavy, we'll back off the 10%. And we do expect folks to produce in kind of this 12 to 18-month time frame. I think we've seen some of the teams we brought on outperformed that pretty materially. But if we don't see that level of performance, there's also an opportunity to slow that down.

我認為另一部分，斯科特，正如我們過去所說，我們對合適的補償方式以回報球員的形像有相當清晰的看法。如果情況變得太糟糕，我們會減少 10% 的投入。我們預計大家會在 12 到 18 個月的時間範圍內完成類似的產出。我認為我們已經看到，我們引進的一些團隊的表現已經遠遠超過了預期。但如果我們沒有看到那種水準的表現，我們也有機會放慢速度。

Got it. Perfect. And then one just really ticky-tack one. I think, Chris, at the beginning, you talked about fourth quarter '25 fees being flat with the fourth quarter, [24.11]. You were talking about total fees rather than just investment banking. Is that correct?

知道了。完美的。還有一個就是非常瑣碎的小問題。克里斯，我想，一開始你提到2025年第四季的費用將與上一季持平。[24.11]你當時說的是總費用，而不僅僅是投資銀行費用。是這樣嗎？

No, I was actually talking about investment banking fees. I think the fourth quarter of last year was [220] or something like that. So that'd be about a 20% lift linked.

不，我其實是說投資銀行費用。我記得去年第四季是[220]或差不多是這個數字。這樣一來，提升幅度大約會達到 20%。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

Gerard Cassidy，RBC。

Chris, can you share with us a bigger -- if we step back for a moment for a broader view question here. Obviously, you've been at the bank for a number of years. Can you share with us your experience right now with the bank regulators. We know it's changing. But obviously, you've been on the front lines for a number of years. Can you maybe give us some color on what you're seeing and what that might mean for not only your improved profitability going forward, but maybe the industry as well.

克里斯，你能否和我們分享一個更宏觀的問題——如果我們暫時退後一步，從更廣闊的視角來看這個問題。顯然，你已經在銀行工作很多年了。您能否和我們分享您目前與銀行監管機構打交道的經驗？我們知道情況正在改變。但很顯然，你已經在前線奮戰多年了。您能否詳細介紹一下您觀察到的情況，以及這可能對您未來獲利能力的提高，甚至對整個產業意味著什麼？

I'd be happy to address that. I'm actually going to DC this evening. It's a remarkable change. And so to kind of give a historical perspective, from the global financial crisis, it became sort of a layer ring of regulation on regulation and a lot of focus on process, a lot of focus on procedure, a lot of focus on documentation.

我很樂意回答這個問題。我今晚要去華盛頓特區。這是一個顯著的變化。因此，從歷史的角度來看，從全球金融危機開始，監管層層疊加，非常注重流程、程序和文件。

And I've been really pleased with what has been a pretty dramatic change in that just a refocusing on safety and soundness. And safety and soundness, of course, is liquidity, capital and earnings. And so we've really seen just a change in that regard.

我對這種相當大的改變感到非常滿意，那就是重新專注於安全性和可靠性。當然，安全穩健的關鍵在於流動性、資本與收益。所以，我們確實看到了這方面的改變。

The other thing is the regulators are absolutely working on coordinating such that we have these exams that we can do concurrently as opposed to consecutively. And so getting rid of some of the duplication, which has a big dividend because -- think about cyber, for example, we have a great cyber team. We invest a lot of money. I want our cyber team thinking about all the risks and looking around the corner as opposed to preparing for exams, going through exams and wrapping up exams. So it's been really encouraging to see the shift. Thanks for the question.

另一方面，監管機構正在積極協調，以便我們可以同時進行這些考試，而不是依次進行。因此，消除一些重複工作會帶來巨大的好處，因為——例如，想想網路安全，我們有一個很棒的網路安全團隊。我們投入了大量資金。我希望我們的網路安全團隊能夠思考所有風險並未雨綢繆，而不是忙於準備考試、參加考試和結束考試。看到這種轉變真的令人鼓舞。謝謝你的提問。

And then as a follow-up, this ties a little bit into Clark's comments about deposits. It started with the bigger banks JPMorgan, Bank of America, but now Fifth Third, P&C or some of your peers that are building out branches as a way of strengthening their consumer banking franchises. What's your guys' view of that type of that type of organic growth? You talked earlier, Chris, about supporting organic growth. I think it was more to the commercial side where you're quite strong. But what about on the consumer side and branches?

然後，作為後續，這與克拉克關於存款的評論有點關聯。最初是摩根大通、美國銀行這樣的大銀行，但現在像五三銀行、P&C銀行或你們的一些同行也開始增設分支機構，以此來加強其消費者銀行業務。你們對這種類型的自然成長有什麼看法？克里斯，你之前談過支持有機成長。我認為你更擅長的是商業方面。那麼消費者端和分公司的情況又如何呢？

Yes. So there's no question that granular retail deposits are of paramount importance. And so we have 943 branches, Gerard. And right now, we're upgrading many of the those. We're also repositioning some closing some, opening some, but it's -- I think the gating item for many banks going forward is going to be the duration and the granularity of your retail deposit base, we are fortunate to have a very good retail deposit base, and you'll see us continue to invest to make sure that we not only maintain but grow that deposit base.

是的。因此，毫無疑問，細粒度的零售存款至關重要。所以我們現在有943家分行，傑拉德。目前，我們正在對其中許多設備進行升級改造。我們也在調整一些業務，關閉一些，開設一些，但我認為——對於許多銀行來說，未來的關鍵因素將是零售存款基礎的持續時間和細分程度，我們很幸運擁有非常好的零售存款基礎，你會看到我們將繼續投資，以確保我們不僅維持而且擴大這一存款基礎。

Right now, I think in the last quarter, we grew our retail deposits by 2% since the financial crisis we've grown them some number like 7% just hardcore retail deposits, and we're going to continue to focus on that.

我認為，上個季度我們的零售存款成長了 2%，而自金融危機以來，我們僅靠核心零售存款就成長了大約 7%，我們將繼續專注於此。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Just a follow up on the investment banking capital markets strategy. I think in the past, you've talked about vertical I guess, interested in kind of where you're leaning most heavily today. And if you were to use some capital to build it out, I guess, what specialties are you perhaps not where you need to be?

關於投資銀行資本市場策略的後續後續。我想你過去曾談到垂直領域，我很想知道你現在最傾向於哪個領域。如果要投入一些資金來發展壯大，我想，你們在哪些專業領域可能還沒有達到應有的水準？

Sure. So right now, we're seeing -- thanks for the question. We're seeing just significant growth in terms of our backlogs are principally in the areas of energy we've been a very early adopter of kind of what's going on with all the data centers, what's going on with renewable energy, and there's just a lot in that sector right now.

當然。所以現在我們看到的是──謝謝你的提問。我們看到積壓訂單出現了顯著成長，主要集中在能源領域。我們很早就開始關注資料中心和再生能源的發展趨勢，目前該領域有很多機會。

The other area where there's a lot of activity is health care. And so we continue to invest in health care. What you'll probably see us do is -- and our investments is go deeper in the sectors that we're in. We'll probably also continue to invest in financial services because as you well know, financial services are becoming a bigger and bigger part of our economy. We have a business there, but there's an opportunity for us to continue to invest. And so those are the places where we're investing.

另一個活躍的領域是醫療保健。因此，我們將繼續加大對醫療保健的投入。你可能會看到我們這樣做——我們的投資會進一步深入我們所處的行業。我們也可能會繼續投資金融服務業，因為如您所知，金融服務業在我們經濟中所佔的比重越來越大。我們在那裡有業務，但我們有機會繼續投資。所以，這些就是我們投資的地區。

That will conclude the question-and-answer session. I will pass the call back over to Chris for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我將把電話轉回給克里斯，讓他做總結發言。

Well, thank you. We appreciate everyone's interest in Key. Should you have additional questions please don't hesitate to reach out to Brian Mauney directly. Thank you, and have a good day. Goodbye.

謝謝。我們感謝大家對 Key 的關注。如果您還有其他疑問，請隨時直接聯絡 Brian Mauney。謝謝，祝您今天過得愉快。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the KeyCorp Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. If you have additional questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，KeyCorp 2025 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。如有其他疑問，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。