KeyCorp (KEY) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to KeyCorp's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

    早安,歡迎參加 KeyCorp 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    提醒一下,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Mauney, KeyCorp, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給 KeyCorp 投資者關係總監 Brian Mauney。請開始。

  • Brian Mauney - Director, Investor Relations

    Brian Mauney - Director, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝接線員,大家早安。

  • I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

    感謝您參加 KeyCorp 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • I'm here with Chris Gorman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer.

    與我一起在場的還有我們的董事長兼首席執行官克里斯·戈爾曼 (Chris Gorman) 和首席財務官克拉克·卡亞特 (Clark Khayat)。

  • As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the key.com website. In the back of the presentation, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures. This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements, and those statements speak only as of today. July 20, 2025 and will not be updated.

    像往常一樣,我們將參考我們的獲利簡報投影片,這些投影片可在 key.com 網站的「投資者關係」部分找到。在簡報的背面,您將看到我們關於前瞻性揭露和某些財務指標(包括非公認會計準則指標)的聲明。這涵蓋了我們的盈利材料以及今天上午電話會議上的演講。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異,且這些陳述僅代表截至今日的情況。截至 2025 年 7 月 20 日,不會更新。

  • With that, I will turn it over to you, Chris.

    說完這些,我就把麥克風交給你了,克里斯。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,布萊恩,大家早安。

  • Today, we've reported strong second quarter results in what can be described as a dynamic and complex macro environment. Earnings per share were $0.35 even while we added $36 million to our loan loss reserves and elected to prefund our charitable foundation this quarter, revenues were up 21% from a year ago, while expenses were up about 6%, excluding the charitable contribution.

    今天,我們在動態而複雜的宏觀環境下報告了強勁的第二季業績。儘管我們本季增加了 3,600 萬美元的貸款損失準備金並選擇預先資助我們的慈善基金會,但每股收益仍為 0.35 美元,收入比去年同期增長了 21%,而支出(不包括慈善捐款)增長了約 6%。

  • Our pre-provision net revenue increased by $44 million sequentially, marking the fifth straight quarter that our PPNR has increased. In the aggregate, our BPNR has grown over 60% since the first quarter of 2024. We continued to demonstrate strong commercial loan growth.

    我們的撥備前淨收入環比增加了 4,400 萬美元,這標誌著我們的 PPNR 連續第五個季度增長。總體而言,自 2024 年第一季以來,我們的 BPNR 成長了 60% 以上。我們的商業貸款持續保持強勁成長。

  • As of June 30, we had already achieved our full year plan to grow commercial loans by about $3 billion in 2025, and our backlogs in both institutional and middle market continue to build as we look to the second half of the year.

    截至 6 月 30 日,我們已經實現了 2025 年商業貸款增加約 30 億美元的全年計劃,展望下半年,我們在機構和中端市場的積壓訂單將繼續增加。

  • We also continue to drive incremental value from our high quality deposit franchise, entering the year with a historically low loan to deposit ratio of 70% combined with the runoff of low yielding consumer mortgages has afforded us the flexibility to prioritize beta management in the first half of the year.

    我們也繼續從我們的高品質存款業務中推動增量價值,進入今年以來,我們的貸存比處於歷史低點 70%,再加上低收益消費者抵押貸款的流失,這讓我們能夠靈活地在上半年優先考慮貝塔管理。

  • As a result, we have been able to manage down our deposit costs, which are now below 2%. Additionally, our cumulative down beta has reached the mid 50% range, which matches our terminal beta from the rising rate cycle.

    因此,我們能夠降低存款成本,目前已低於 2%。此外,我們的累計下行貝塔值已達到 50% 的中間範圍,與我們在利率上升週期中的終端貝塔值相符。

  • With respect to fees, which grew 10% from a year ago, our priority fee-based businesses all continue to perform very well. Investment banking had its second best first half of the year in history as debt and equity issuance normalized after pausing in April, particularly as we approach the end of the quarter.

    就費用而言,與去年相比成長了 10%,我們的優先收費業務持續表現良好。投資銀行業務在今年上半年取得了歷史上第二好的業績,因為債務和股票發行在 4 月暫停後已恢復正常,尤其是在接近本季末的時候。

  • We raised over $30 billion of capital for our clients in the quarter, retaining 22% on our balance sheet. Commercial payments fee equivalent revenue grew high single digits year over year. Assets under management reached a record $64 billion. Additionally, sales production in our mass affluent segment was a record in the first half of the year.

    本季度,我們為客戶籌集了超過 300 億美元的資金,並在資產負債表上保留了 22%。商業支付費用等值收入年增高個位數。管理資產達到創紀錄的640億美元。此外,我們大眾富裕階層的銷售量在上半年創下了紀錄。

  • Finally, commercial mortgage servicing continued its strong performance as named special servicing balancesive special servicing balances remained near record levels. While top line momentum remains robust, concurrently, all of our credit metrics continue to migrate in the right direction.

    最後,商業抵押貸款服務持續表現強勁,指定特別服務餘額仍接近歷史最高水準。在營收動能依然強勁的同時,我們的所有信貸指標也持續朝著正確的方向發展。

  • Net charge offs, criticized loans, and delinquencies all declined from the first quarter, while NPAs were essentially stable. Our overall credit migration improved for the 6th consecutive quarter with commercial upgrades exceeding downgrades this quarter.

    淨沖銷、不良貸款和拖欠率均較第一季下降,不良資產基本上維持穩定。我們的整體信用遷移連續第六個季度有所改善,本季商業升級超過降級。

  • Our strong first half results combined with our healthy pipelines and active client engagement drive our optimism that we will meet or exceed all of the full year and exit rate financial targets that we detailed for you at the beginning of the year. As Clark will discuss in more depth shortly, we are increasing our net interest income and loan growth guidance.

    我們強勁的上半年業績、健康的管道和積極的客戶參與使我們有信心達到或超過我們在年初為您詳述的全年和退出率財務目標。正如克拉克稍後將深入討論的那樣,我們正在增加淨利息收入和貸款成長預期。

  • Based on the rebound and client activity, we continue to feel good about our ability to deliver 5% or better fee growth this year. Investment banking pipelines remain at historically elevated levels, essentially flat on a linked quarter basis.

    根據反彈和客戶活動,我們仍然對今年實現 5% 或更高的費用成長的能力充滿信心。投資銀行業務通路仍處於歷史高位,較上季基本持平。

  • Concurrently, we remain committed to holding expense growth in the low to mid single digit range even while investing meaningfully in our frontline bankers and increasing our tech spend by nearly $100 million this year. On the hiring front, we're on track to increase our frontline bankers and client advisors by roughly 10% this year.

    同時,儘管我們今年對第一線銀行家進行了有意義的投資,並將技術支出增加了近 1 億美元,但我們仍致力於將費用成長保持在低至中等個位數的範圍內。在招聘方面,我們今年計劃將一線銀行家和客戶顧問的數量增加約 10%。

  • We have successfully recruited highly skilled investment bankers, middle market relationship managers, wealth managers and payments advisors to our platform and our active recruiting pipelines remain strong. I'm also encouraged by our strong retention rates which are reflective of our highly engaged sales force.

    我們已成功招募高技能的投資銀行家、中階市場關係經理、財富經理和支付顧問加入我們的平台,我們的積極招募管道依然強勁。我們強勁的留任率也令我感到鼓舞,這反映了我們高度敬業的銷售團隊。

  • As a reminder, we accelerated investments in people and technology late last year and we are already seeing returns on those investments. For example, in the case of our middle market banking, the teams that we onboarded in Chicago and Southern California this last November have already driven new client growth, loan volumes, payments, and investment banking business.

    提醒一下,我們在去年年底加快了對人才和技術的投資,並且已經看到了這些投資的回報。例如,就我們的中型市場銀行業務而言,去年 11 月我們在芝加哥和南加州加入的團隊已經推動了新客戶成長、貸款量、支付和投資銀行業務。

  • Our platform is very attractive to bankers with specific ex expertise that aligns to our industry verticals. Our new teammates can join the key team and be more impactful to both their clients and their prospects. To wrap up, we had a solid first half of the year. We remain vigilant in a dynamic environment and are well positioned for a wide range of scenarios.

    我們的平台對於具有與我們的行業垂直領域相符的特定專業知識的銀行家非常有吸引力。我們的新隊友可以加入核心團隊,對他們的客戶和潛在客戶產生更大的影響。總而言之,我們上半年取得了豐碩的成果。我們在動態環境中保持警惕,並為各種情況做好了準備。

  • We are operating from a position of strength. We have a leading capital position among our peers and ample liquidity that gives us flexibility to take advantage of the inevitable market dislocations.

    我們正以強勢地位開展業務。我們在同行中擁有領先的資本地位和充足的流動性,這使我們能夠靈活地利用不可避免的市場混亂。

  • Our clearly defined structural net interest income tailwind is materializing as expected. We are enjoying significant success in the marketplace while concurrently making investments in people and technology that will drive our future growth.

    我們明確定義的結構性淨利息收入順風正如預期般實現。我們在市場上取得了巨大的成功,同時對人才和技術進行了投資,以推動我們未來的成長。

  • With that, I'd like to turn over to Clark. Clark?

    接下來我想把麥克風交給克拉克。克拉克?

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks Chris. Starting on slide 4, we reported second quarter earnings per share of $0.35. Revenue was up 21% year over year, while expenses increased 7%. We're 6% adjusting for a charitable foundation contribution that we've historically done later in the year.

    謝謝克里斯。從第4張投影片開始,我們報告第二季每股收益為0.35美元。營收年增21%,支出成長7%。我們正在根據慈善基金會的捐款進行 6% 的調整,我們通常在當年稍後進行這項捐款。

  • Tax equivalent net interest income was up 4% sequentially and 28% year over year. Non interest income increased 10% year over year reflecting continued momentum across investment banking, commercial mortgage servicing, commercial payments, and wealth.

    稅後淨利息收入季增 4%,年增 28%。非利息收入年增 10%,反映出投資銀行、商業抵押貸款服務、商業支付和財富業務的持續成長動能。

  • We achieved approximately 1,400 and 300 basis points of total and fee-based operating leverage respectively year over year. Provision for credit losses of $138 million included $102 million of net charge offs and a $36 million reserve bill. Roughly half of the build is driven by loan growth and mix shift, and the remainder from the net impact deterioration in the Moody's macroeconomic scenario.

    我們同比分別實現了約 1,400 個基點的總營運槓桿和基於費用的營運槓桿。1.38 億美元的信貸損失準備金包括 1.02 億美元的淨沖銷和 3,600 萬美元的準備金帳單。其中約一半的成長是由貸款成長和組合轉變推動的,其餘的成長則是由穆迪宏觀經濟情景的淨影響惡化所推動的。

  • Recall last quarter we made a qualitative adjustment to account for the heightened uncertainty at the time. We reversed some of that bill this quarter as the uncertainty is now reflected in the Moody scenario.

    回想一下上個季度,我們進行了定性調整,以解決當時加劇的不確定性。由於不確定性已反映在穆迪的預測中,我們在本季撤銷了部分法案。

  • Tangible book value per share increased 3% sequentially and 27% year over year.

    每股有形帳面價值較上季成長 3%,較去年同期成長 27%。

  • Moving to the balance sheet on slide 5, average loans were up $1.4 billion sequentially and increased $1.6 billion on a period end basis. On a spot basis, CNI loans grew $1.7 billion and CRE loan loans grew $0.5 billion, partially offset by the intentional runoff of low yielding consumer loans, namely residential mortgages.

    轉到投影片 5 的資產負債表,平均貸款季增 14 億美元,期末增加 16 億美元。以現貨計算,CNI 貸款增加了 17 億美元,CRE 貸款增加了 5 億美元,但部分成長被低收益消費貸款(即住宅抵押貸款)的故意流失所抵消。

  • Within C&I, the growth continues to be broad based across industries and regions with both large institutions and middle market clients. Most of the growth was from new clients to key. C&I line utilization ticked up approximately 50 basis points to 32%.

    在商業與工業領域,成長持續廣泛存在於各個行業和地區,既包括大型機構,也包括中型市場客戶。大部分成長來自於新客戶的成長。C&I 線路利用率上升約 50 個基點,達到 32%。

  • The CRE growth is primarily driven by project-based deals and affordable housing, traditional multi-family, and data centers. On slide 6, average deposits declined by less than 1% from last quarter as we prioritize data management in the first half of the year and primarily reflected a reduction in higher cost, commercial client balances, and retail fees.

    CRE 的成長主要受到基於專案的交易和經濟適用房、傳統多戶型住宅和資料中心的推動。在第 6 張投影片上,由於我們優先考慮上半年的資料管理,平均存款較上一季下降了不到 1%,這主要反映了成本、商業客戶餘額和零售費用的減少。

  • Compared to the prior year, total deposits and client deposits both increased by 2%, reflecting growth in consumer balances. 95% of commercial balances are with clients that have an operating account with key. Non-interest bearing deposits were 19% of total deposits or 23% when adjusted for the non-interest bearing deposits in our hybrid accounts stable to the first quarter.

    與去年相比,總存款和客戶存款均增加了 2%,反映了消費者餘額的成長。 95% 的商業餘額來自擁有關鍵營運帳戶的客戶。無利息存款佔總存款的 19%,根據第一季穩定的混合帳戶無息存款進行調整後,無利息存款佔總存款的 23%。

  • Interest bearing deposit costs decreased by 9 basis points during the quarter and total deposit costs were managed below 2%. Cumulative deposit data to the Fed rate cuts continue to perform better than expectations, reaching 55% in the second quarter.

    本季計息存款成本下降了 9 個基點,總存款成本控制在 2% 以下。累計存款數據對聯準會降息的預期持續表現優於預期,第二季達到55%。

  • Overall, interest bearing funding costs declined by 6 basis points, and our cumulative interest bearing funding data was 69% through the second quarter.

    整體而言,計息融資成本下降了 6 個基點,截至第二季度,我們的累積計息融資數據為 69%。

  • Slide 7 provides drivers of net interest income and them this quarter. Tax equivalent net interest income was up 4% sequentially, and net interest margin increased by 8 basis points to 2.66%. The increase was largely driven by proactive deposit data management, fixed rate asset repricing, swap maturities, and commercial loan growth.

    投影片 7 顯示了本季淨利息收入的驅動因素及其情況。稅後淨利息收入季增 4%,淨利差增加 8 個基點至 2.66%。這一成長主要得益於主動存款資料管理、固定利率資產重新定價、掉期到期和商業貸款成長。

  • NII also benefited from an additional day in the quarter. While client sentiment has improved compared to where it was on our last earnings call in mid April, the environment remains dynamic. Given the macro uncertainty, we continue to hold roughly $4 billion to $5 billion more cash and other short term liquidity than we anticipate needing over the medium term.

    NII 也受益於本季的額外一天。雖然客戶情緒與我們四月中旬的上次收益電話會議相比有所改善,但環境仍然充滿活力。鑑於宏觀不確定性,我們持有的現金和其他短期流動資金仍比我們預期的中期需求多出約 40 億至 50 億美元。

  • This excess cash position had a 4 basis points to 5 basis points impact on NIM but a de minimis impact to NII.

    這種過剩現金狀況對 NIM 產生了 4 到 5 個基點的影響,但對 NII 的影響卻微乎其微。

  • Turning to slide 8, non-interest income was $690 million, up 10% year over year with all of our priority fee-based businesses growing mid single digits or better. Investment banking debt placement fees were $178 million, an increase of 41% year over year.

    轉到投影片 8,非利息收入為 6.9 億美元,年增 10%,其中我們所有的優先收費業務均實現了中等個位數或更高的成長。投資銀行債務安置費用為 1.78 億美元,年增 41%。

  • For the first half of 2025, investment banking fees were $353 million the second best first half in our company's history. This quarter's growth was driven by syndication, commercial real estate, and equity issuance activity.

    2025 年上半年,投資銀行費用為 3.53 億美元,是我們公司史上第二好的上半年。本季的成長是由銀團貸款、商業房地產和股票發行活動所推動的。

  • Several clients accelerated their transactions into the end of the quarter to take advantage of lower yields and tighter spreads. Well this does pull forward some activity from the third quarter. We have since backfilled a good majority of that pipeline and so if current conditions hold, we're optimistic that the third quarter investment banking fees could look similar to 2 levels.

    一些客戶在本季末加速了交易,以利用較低的收益率和較小的利差。這確實會提前第三季的一些活動。從那時起,我們已經填補了大部分的空缺,因此,如果目前的狀況保持不變,我們樂觀地認為第三季的投資銀行費用可能會達到 2 個水平。

  • Elsewhere, commercial mortgage servicing fees continue to perform well, growing approximately 15% year over year. As of June 30, we were the named primary or special servicer and approximately $710 billion of CRE loans, of which about $260 billion of special services.

    其他方面,商業抵押貸款服務費持續表現良好,年增約 15%。截至 6 月 30 日,我們是指定的主要或特殊服務商,提供約 7,100 億美元的 CRE 貸款,其中約 2,600 億美元的特殊服務。

  • Active special servicing balances remain elevated at approximately $11 billion, up 59% compared to the prior year. Our service charges and corporate services fees increased roughly 11% and 12% respectively. The increase in service charges was largely driven by continued momentum and commercial payments while corporate services income was driven by loan derivative and FX client activity.

    活躍特別服務餘額仍維持在高位,約 110 億美元,比上年增長 59%。我們的服務費和公司服務費分別增加了約11%和12%。服務費的成長主要受到持續成長動能和商業支付的推動,而企業服務收入則受到貸款衍生性商品和外匯客戶活動的推動。

  • Despite market volatility earlier in April and a one month lag in how we book our fees, trust and investment servicescom group 5% and assets under management reached a record high of $64 billion. On slide 9, second quarter 9 interest expenses of $1.15 billion increased 2% from the prior quarter and 7% year over year on a recorded basis.

    儘管 4 月初市場出現波動,且我們的費用結算方式落後一個月,但信託和投資服務集團的資產管理規模仍達到了 640 億美元的歷史新高。第 9 張投影片顯示,第二季的利息支出為 11.5 億美元,較上一季成長 2%,較去年同期成長 7%。

  • Year over year expense growth was driven by higher personnel expense related to the strong fee generation, continued investments in people and technology, as well as higher other business services and professional fees. During the quarter, we made a $10 million contribution to our charitable foundation.

    年比支出成長的原因是,與強勁的費用產生相關的人員支出增加、對人員和技術的持續投資,以及其他業務服務和專業費用的增加。本季度,我們向慈善基金會捐贈了 1000 萬美元。

  • Consistent with prior guidance, we expect expenses to increase through the remainder of the year, reflecting continued hiring and technology investments, anticipated growth and non-interest income and client activity, day count and other seasonality factors.

    與先前的指導一致,我們預計今年剩餘時間的支出將會增加,這反映了持續的招聘和技術投資、預期的成長和非利息收入以及客戶活動、天數和其他季節性因素。

  • As shown on slide 10, credit quality is broadly stable to improving on a linked quarter basis. Net charge offs were $102 million down 7%, or an annualized 39 basis points of average loans. Non-performing asset trends were stable. Dollars increased by 1%, but MPAs to loans and Oreo declined by 1 basis point to 66 basis points. Criticized loans declined by about $200 million or 3%.

    如投影片 10 所示,信貸品質整體穩定,且按季度環比有所改善。淨沖銷金額為 1.02 億美元,下降 7%,或年化平均貸款 39 個基點。不良資產走勢穩定。美元增加了 1%,但 MPA 與貸款和奧利奧的比率下降了 1 個基點,至 66 個基點。受到批評的貸款減少了約 2 億美元,即 3%。

  • Turning to slide 11, our CET1 ratio was 11.7% quarter end, as loan growth and a change in loan mix offset net earnings generation. Our marked CET1 ratio, which includes unrealized AFS and pension losses, rose slightly to 10%. We believe both ratios continue to be at or near the top of the peer group.

    轉到投影片 11,我們的 CET1 比率在季度末為 11.7%,因為貸款成長和貸款組合的變化抵消了淨收益的產生。我們標記的 CET1 比率(包括未實現的 AFS 和退休金損失)小幅上升至 10%。我們相信這兩個比率將繼續處於或接近同行的最高水平。

  • Moving to slide 12, we're positively revising our 2025 guidance given the strong first half of the year and encouraging pipelines we see heading into the back half.

    轉到第 12 張幻燈片,鑑於今年上半年的強勁表現以及我們看到的下半年令人鼓舞的管道建設,我們正在積極修改我們的 2025 年指導方針。

  • This guidance continues to incorporate a range of potential scenarios anywhere from 0 to 4 cuts as we move through the balance of the year.

    隨著我們度過今年餘下的時間,該指導方針將繼續納入一系列潛在情景,從 0 次到 4 次降息。

  • We now expect full year net interest income growth of 20% to 22% compared to prior guidance of approximately 20%. As a reminder, roughly 8% of our NII growth this year is due to the Scotiabank investment and related securities portfolio repositioning that we executed late in 2024, implying organic NII growth in the low teens this year.

    我們現在預計全年淨利息收入將成長 20% 至 22%,而先前的預期約為 20%。提醒一下,我們今年 NII 成長的約 8% 是由於我們在 2024 年底執行的豐業銀行投資和相關證券投資組合重新配置,這意味著今年的有機 NII 成長率將達到百分之十幾。

  • We also now expect our fourth quarter exit rate NII to grow 11% or better compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 and fourth quarter NIM to be approximately 2.75%. We've also improved our loan guidance for the year.

    我們現在也預計,與 2024 年第四季相比,第四季的退出率 NII 將成長 11% 或更多,而第四季的 NIM 將達到約 2.75%。我們也改進了今年的貸款指導。

  • As a reminder, the previous guidance for average loans was down 2% to 5% with loans flat on a period and basis, including commercial loans up 2% to 4%. We now expect average loans for the full year to be down 1 to 3% on a period end basis, loans are now expected to be up approximately 2%, with commercial loans growing about 5%.

    提醒一下,先前的平均貸款預期是下降 2% 至 5%,貸款在一定時期和基礎上持平,其中商業貸款增長 2% 至 4%。我們現在預計,全年平均貸款將在期末下降 1% 至 3%,貸款預計將成長約 2%,其中商業貸款將成長約 5%。

  • Other P&L guidance remains broadly unchanged. We continue to expect adjusted fees will grow 5% or a little better with the upside primarily depending on IV pipelines pulling through the second half.

    其他損益指引基本維持不變。我們繼續預計調整後的費用將增加 5% 或略高,上行空間主要取決於 IV 管道能否順利度過下半年。

  • Expenses up 3% to 5% and note that we are currently planning to be at the midpoint of this range given client activity levels and pipelines to date. Net charge offs as a percent of loans in the 40 to 45 basis point range.

    費用上漲 3% 至 5%,請注意,考慮到迄今為止的客戶活動水平和管道,我們目前計劃處於該範圍的中間點。淨沖銷額佔貸款的百分比在 40 至 45 個基點範圍內。

  • With respect to capital, we continue to target marked CET1 ratio of 9.5% to 10% over time, but as the macro outlook remains dynamic, it's our intention to manage to the high end of this range in the near term.

    在資本方面,我們將繼續將一級資本充足率的目標設定為 9.5% 至 10%,但隨著宏觀前景保持動態,我們打算在短期內達到這一範圍的高端。

  • That I will now turn the call back to the operator provide instructions for the Q&A session operator.

    我現在將把電話轉回給接線員,為問答環節接線員提供指示。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的瑞安·納許。

  • Ryan Nash - Analyst

    Ryan Nash - Analyst

  • So you guys had better than expected in investment banking fees and you also had stronger loan growth in the quarter. Sounds like pipelines are still pretty healthy coming into the back half. Clark, you made some comments about 3Q investment banking, which sounded pretty upbeat, so.

    因此,你們的投資銀行費用表現優於預期,本季的貸款成長也更加強勁。聽起來,進入下半年,管道狀況仍然相當健康。克拉克,您對第三季的投資銀行業務發表了一些評論,聽起來相當樂觀。

  • Maybe just to start off, Chris, can you maybe just talk about what you're hearing from clients in terms of their sentiment and their eagerness to borrow and transact and and maybe Clark, can you just talk about how all this translated into your financial outlook in terms of the higher NII and loan growth thank you and have a follow up.

    首先,克里斯,您能否談談您從客戶那裡聽到的關於他們的情緒以及他們借貸和交易的熱情?克拉克,您能否談談這一切如何轉化為您的財務前景,就更高的 NII 和貸款成長而言,謝謝您,並請跟進。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Well, let me start from a client sentiment, I would say that our clients are cautiously optimistic. I'm out, as talking to our clients all the time, and it's interesting they go through all the macro concerns, geopolitical tariffs, trade, and then you ask them about their business and they say they feel pretty good about their business.

    當然。好吧,讓我從客戶情緒開始,我想說我們的客戶是謹慎樂觀的。我一直在和客戶交談,有趣的是,他們會討論所有的宏觀問題、地緣政治關稅、貿易,然後你問他們關於他們的業務的情況,他們會說他們對自己的業務感覺很好。

  • So let me start with the consumer, Ryan. Our consumer is just fine, just as a reminder. At funding our consumers have a FICO score of about 767. And so as you look at how the credits are performing, if you look at how spending volumes are performing, our clients are in good shape.

    那麼就讓我先從消費者瑞安開始吧。我們的消費者很好,只是提醒一下。在為我們的消費者提供資金時,他們的 FICO 分數約為 767。因此,如果您查看信貸表現如何,如果您查看支出量表現如何,您會發現我們的客戶狀況良好。

  • I think one of the things that the models really failed to pick up is the wealth effect and the fact that household wealth in the United States over the last 15 years has increased by about 100%. $1 trillion and that is that's not inconsequential and I think you know when people start looking at hours worked and they start looking at the labor participation rate, I think sometimes that's missed.

    我認為這些模型未能捕捉到的一點是財富效應,事實上,美國家庭財富在過去 15 年裡成長了約 100%。 1 兆美元,這並非無關緊要,而且我認為,當人們開始關注工作時間和勞動參與率時,有時會忽略這一點。

  • For example, we're a Main Street bank and we have perfect information and a million of our 2.5 million customers have between $500.02 million dollars to invest. So that's the consumer. The consumer's in good shape. Let's talk about commercial for a second. I think balance sheets are healthy, their liquidity is in good shape. I think the companies are a lot more agile, Ryan, than they were even going into the pandemic.

    例如,我們是一家主要街道銀行,我們擁有完美的訊息,我們的 250 萬客戶中有 100 萬擁有 5.002 億美元的投資額。這就是消費者。消費者狀況良好。讓我們來談談商業。我認為資產負債表是健康的,流動性狀況良好。瑞安,我認為這些公司現在比疫情爆發時更靈活。

  • If you look at their supply chains, if you look at their ability to just make changes on the fly, it's interesting we perform a very detailed survey on 850 customers that borrowed $10 million or more. 50% of them think that the current environment is an opportunity for growth.

    如果你看看他們的供應鏈,如果你看看他們隨時做出改變的能力,有趣的是,我們對 850 名借款 1000 萬美元或以上的客戶進行了非常詳細的調查。其中 50% 的人認為目前的環境是成長機會。

  • As it relates to tariffs because that's always a topic for everyone. 30% of our customers are impacted by tariffs, but here's the interesting thing of the 56 billion that we have outstanding in C&I, only 3% are significantly impacted in a direct way by tariffs.

    因為它與關稅有關,因為這始終是每個人都關注的話題。我們 30% 的客戶受到關稅的影響,但有趣的是,在我們未償還的 560 億美元 C&I 債務中,只有 3% 受到關稅的直接嚴重影響。

  • So that's just a little bit of a rundown there. The one thing I would add, I guess that I don't think people are talking about enough. It's not that pertinent to publicly traded companies, but for private companies this 100% bonus depreciation.

    這只是一點點概述。我想補充一點,我想人們討論得還不夠。這與上市公司關係不大,但對於私人公司來說,獎金折舊率為 100%。

  • I think that's very significant and none of that is in any of the plans that we're sharing with you today in any of our updated guidance. I think in the back half of the year for the first time in a long time you're going to see a significant ramp up in CapEx.

    我認為這非常重要,但我們今天在任何更新指南中與您分享的任何計劃中都沒有提到這一點。我認為,今年下半年,我們將首次看到資本支出在很長一段時間內大幅增加。

  • And I'll just close by just giving a couple watch points as I always do. I think. While we at key are criticized loans are down 13% year over year, the areas that we're watching very closely or any place there's leverage. One of my view is we could very well be in a higher for longer scenario. And if that's the case, we got to really watch these leveraged companies.

    最後,我將像往常一樣,給出幾個注意點。我認為。雖然我們主要批評的是貸款年減了 13%,但我們密切關注的領域或任何存在槓桿的地方。我的觀點之一是,我們很可能會長期處於高位。如果事實確實如此,我們就必須認真關注這些槓桿公司。

  • Only 2% to 3% of our loans are leveraged. The other place we're watching is any place that's dependent on Medicare funding, so that's hospitals and other places. We're watching those and then we have a little bit of an outside in perspective from our third party commercial loan servicing business as we're named.

    我們的貸款中只有 2% 到 3% 是槓桿貸款。我們正在關注的另一個地方是任何依賴醫療保險資金的地方,即醫院和其他地方。我們正在關注這些,然後從我們名為第三方商業貸款服務業務的角度來觀察。

  • Special service on 267 billion of loans and when they go into active we're basically the workout agent. And it won't surprise you, but you know what's in active special servicing right now is office multi-family principally in the Sun Belt, and then what's new is there's been a little bit of a a surge in lodging which I thought was interesting, but that's kind of a round robin on kind of how we see the customers. Clark, what would you add to that?

    為 2,670 億貸款提供特殊服務,當這些貸款開始活躍時,我們基本上就是貸款代理人。這不會讓你感到驚訝,但你知道,目前活躍的特殊服務主要是陽光地帶的辦公多戶住宅,而新的情況是,住宿數量出現了一些激增,我認為這很有趣,但這只是我們如何看待客戶的一種循環。克拉克,您對此還有什麼補充嗎?

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • So let's maybe start with NII since I think that's been in focus most of the year and you know another good quarter for us up 4%, 1st quarter to second quarter and you know that's led to the kind of revised guidance here so just as a reminder and for avoidance of doubt we went from, approximately 20% NAI up here every year to 20 to 22% and fourth quarter exit rate from 10% plus to 11% plus.

    因此,讓我們從 NII 開始吧,因為我認為這是今年大部分時間關注的焦點,而且您知道我們又一個季度表現良好,第一季度比第二季度增長了 4%,您知道這導致了這裡的修訂指導,因此,提醒一下,為避免疑問,我們從每年大約 20% 的 NAI 上升到 20% 到 22% 以上的退出率從 10% 以上的退出率上升到 10% 以上的退出率 10% 以上。

  • And we picked up the NII there as well I think important to note that we have the equivalent level of confidence in the revised guide as we did in the previous, which means we believe we can deliver this across a range of conditions, inclusive kind of no cuts to 4 cuts and barring any significant macro or event driven shifts, built on, strong first half performance so more C&I growth and planned.

    我們也在那裡選擇了 NII,我認為值得注意的是,我們對修訂後的指南具有與以前相同的信心,這意味著我們相信我們可以在一系列條件下實現這一目標,包括不削減到 4 次削減,並且除非發生任何重大的宏觀或事件驅動的轉變,否則,在強勁的上半年表現的基礎上,實現更多的 C&I 增長和計劃。

  • Better deposit performance, so down 9 basis points on interest bearing deposits in the quarter. So really good performance on both there we expect that to continue but not likely at the same rate in the second half as competition begins to pick up a little bit on the deposit side. I think it's also important to note that the potential upside that Chris referenced in things like bonus depreciation CapEx spend is not part of that guide, so. If that materializes in any significant way that could be a potential upside there.

    存款表現較好,因此本季計息存款下降了 9 個基點。因此,我們預計這兩方面的表現都會持續良好,但下半年不太可能以同樣的速度成長,因為存款方面的競爭開始加劇。我認為還需要注意的是,克里斯提到的獎金折舊資本支出等方面的潛在優勢並不屬於該指南的一部分,所以。如果這種情況以任何重大方式實現,那可能是一個潛在的好處。

  • I would say achieving the middle of the improved guidance range of the '20 to '22 does imply a pretty healthy 2% to 3% quarterly organic growth rate, off second quarter levels, so, we don't think it's a layup to be sure, on fees we had a very good second quarter across all the priority fee categories and again aided by a late rally the last few weeks of June in investment banking.

    我想說,實現 20 年至 22 年改善後的指導範圍的中間值確實意味著季度有機增長率將達到相當健康的 2% 至 3%,高於第二季度的水平,因此,我們認為這肯定不是一次上籃。就費用而言,我們第二季在所有優先費用類別中都表現得非常好,並且再次受到 6 月最後幾週投資銀行業務後期反彈的推動。

  • Like back in early June I noted the April pause was making the 5% plus guide on fees a little tighter.

    就像我在六月初注意到的那樣,四月份的暫停使得 5% 以上的費用指導變得更緊。

  • Since then, obviously activities picked up considerably. I think that's reflective of clients' willingness and ability to act quickly and a significant amount of investor capital that's on the sidelines waiting to get into the market. I think if we see that level of capital markets activity continue in the second half, we feel like we can deliver on the plus component of that fee guide.

    自那時起,活動顯然大幅增加。我認為這反映了客戶迅速採取行動的意願和能力,以及大量等待進入市場的投資者資本。我認為,如果我們看到下半年資本市場活動繼續保持這種水平,我們覺得我們可以實現該費用指南的加分部分。

  • As for expenses, we continue to invest as we've shared. We'll see an uptick in the second half based on continued hiring and investments in technology. I'd remind you we accelerated the same types of investments in the 4th quarter last year, and we've seen those benefits, already in 2025.

    至於費用,我們會繼續以我們所分享的方式進行投資。基於持續的招募和技術投資,我們將看到下半年出現上升趨勢。我想提醒大家,我們在去年第四季加速了相同類型的投資,並且我們已經在 2025 年看到了這些好處。

  • Very confident on this expense guide and to the extent the market turned and we saw some softness we have ways to addressee growth through the back half of the year, but we don't plan to do that at the expense of sound investments for future profitable growth, and then lastly, credit metrics stable to improving across the board we're quite comfortable with our reserve at the moment and the direction of travel there, as it always does, will obviously depend on how the economy unfolds in the second half.

    我們對這份費用指南非常有信心,並且根據市場轉變的程度以及我們看到的一些疲軟情況,我們有辦法在下半年實現增長,但我們不打算以犧牲未來盈利增長的穩健投資為代價來做到這一點,最後,信貸指標穩定並全面改善,我們對我們的儲備感到很滿意,而旅行的方向,一如既往,顯然將取決於下半年經濟如何發展。

  • Ryan Nash - Analyst

    Ryan Nash - Analyst

  • So maybe just as my quick follow up sort of where you left off, Clark, results in the first half coming in better than expected and this should set you up well for 2026 revenue growth and. When you think about expenses, you talked about the midpoint of the range for this year.

    因此,也許就像我剛才快速跟進的那樣,克拉克,上半年的業績好於預期,這應該為 2026 年的收入成長奠定良好的基礎。當您考慮開支時,您談論的是今年範圍的中點。

  • You maybe just talk about how you're thinking about the pacing of investments over the short to medium term. It feels like you're playing more offense now in terms of hiring and technology investing and maybe just as we look ahead, what is the right way to think about the pacing of positive operating leverage over the medium term?

    您可能只是談論一下您如何考慮短期到中期的投資節奏。感覺你現在在招募和技術投資方面採取了更積極的進攻姿態,也許當我們展望未來時,如何正確思考中期內積極經營槓桿的步伐?

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So a couple things obviously.

    顯然有幾件事。

  • Positive operating leverage for us is a fait accompli this year. We've focused on really generating positive operating leverage from a fee perspective, and we'll continue to focus on that. We will also continue to invest probably at the current rates. We're growing our we mentioned in our prepared remarks that we're growing bankers, middle market relationship managers, wealth managers, payment advisors. We're going to continue to invest there. We frankly have been investing in technology the whole time.

    對我們來說,今年正向經營槓桿已是既定事實。我們專注於從費用角度真正創造積極的經營槓桿,我們將繼續關注這一點。我們可能還會繼續以目前的速度進行投資。我們正在發展我們在準備好的演講中提到,我們正在發展銀行家、中端市場關係經理、財富經理和支付顧問。我們將繼續在那裡投資。坦白說,我們一直在投資科技。

  • Every year we've replaced core systems we've actually migrated half of our apps now to the cloud. Our systems are in the cloud, we'll continue along that investment, but I'm a big believer that you've got to continually through continuous improvement, we have to be able to take out costs and serve our clients better and you know we were an early adopter when you think about. Robotic process automation, we've been an early adopter on machine learning.

    我們每年都會更換核心系統,實際上我們已經將一半的應用程式遷移到雲端。我們的系統在雲端,我們將繼續進行這項投資,但我堅信,你必須不斷地透過持續改進,我們必須能夠降低成本並更好地為客戶服務,你知道,我們是早期採用者。機器人流程自動化,我們是機器學習的早期採用者。

  • You'll get that goes as far back as our performance and PPP, you'll remember and you know we're very focused on using technology to take not only take out expense but have it be a better experience for both our teammates and our employees.

    您會發現這可以追溯到我們的表現和 PPP,您會記得並且知道我們非常專注於使用技術,不僅可以節省開支,還可以為我們的隊友和員工帶來更好的體驗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

    史考特·西佛斯、派珀·桑德勒。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • I was hoping you could expand a little on some of the deposit comments, you made in response to, the last question, just basically sort of deposit pricing strategy given the 9 basis points improvement sequentially and expectation, that will continue maybe more I guess more broadly sort of the pricing versus growth balance. I know you you're in an excess liquidity position, but would just be curious to hear your thoughts there.

    我希望您能稍微擴展一下您在回答最後一個問題時對存款的評論,基本上就是存款定價策略,考慮到連續 9 個基點的改善和預期,這種策略可能會繼續下去,我想更廣泛地是定價與增長的平衡。我知道你的流動性過剩,但我只是好奇想聽聽你的想法。

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So just to maybe put a finer point on your last comment there, we came in at kind of loan to deposit ratios at the low end of the peer group 70%, so I think that affords us a little bit of flexibility there, I think our deposit cost slightly higher, so some room there and a lot of, CDs and MMDA promotional rates rolling over kind of month to month that will continue in the second half and then the last piece. That hasn't played out exactly the way we thought at the beginning of the year but continues to be beneficial on the liquidity side is just the trade of residential real estate pay downs and then the the the movement of those dollars into CNI loans so.

    當然。因此,也許可以更準確地闡述您最後一條評論,我們的貸存比率處於同行 70% 的低端,所以我認為這為我們提供了一點靈活性,我認為我們的存款成本略高一些,所以還有一些空間,而且很多 CD 和 MMDA 促銷利率會逐月滾動,這將在下半年和最後一部分繼續下去。情況並沒有像我們年初想像的那樣發展,但在流動性方面仍然有利,這只是住宅房地產交易的償還,然後將這些美元轉移到 CNI 貸款中。

  • It didn't happen as much as we had thought going in, which is, the benefit of a faster loan growth, but that is still a benefit, on the liquidity side, so we saw some positive, pricing in the quarter we did on two fronts, kind of make it an active decision to let some deposits roll off, in two places in particular kind of high end commercial where we did see some relatively competitive pricing happening and we didn't.

    它並沒有像我們想像的那樣發生,這是貸款增長更快的好處,但在流動性方面,這仍然是一個好處,所以我們在本季度看到了一些積極的定價,我們在兩個方面都做出了積極的決定,讓一些存款滾動,特別是在兩個地方的高端商業領域,我們確實看到了一些相對有競爭力的定價,但我們沒有。

  • Feel the need to to match those offers, those remain clients and we could go back to those dollars if we needed them and then on the retail CD side we let about a billion 4 roll off, that were, not turning over at the same rates. I will say well our front book production on CDs and promotional and MDAs is a little bit lower given some of our market rates our retention client retention rates in those pockets are better than expected so. Again we're seeing you know I think I'd argue maybe consumers aren't chasing 25 basis points at these levels, and then maybe one other point on deposits which are, in the quarter we did see CRE clients use cash to do acquisitions. Instead of pay down those pay downs would have been deposits they're using cash to buy new properties that would also exist in our servicing book. So in both cases we saw a little bit lower deposits on those sides. We'll see how that transpires in the second half, but, normally our low point in deposits would be mid to late April after tax season. That really rolled a bit into May, but we've seen a nice rebound, particularly on the commercial side going into the end of the quarter. We have good commercial deposit pipelines, and we'd expect to see that grow going into the second half, but we are very much watching, some of the deposit actions of competitors given some of the comments we've heard across the industry in the quarter.

    覺得有必要匹配這些報價,那些仍然是客戶,如果我們需要的話,我們可以回到那些美元,然後在零售 CD 方面,我們讓大約 10 億 4 滾滾而來,而不是以相同的速度週轉。我想說的是,考慮到我們的一些市場價格,我們在 CD 和促銷以及 MDA 上的封面書籍製作稍微低一些,但我們在這些方面的保留客戶保留率比預期的要好。我們再次看到,我認為也許消費者不會在這些水平上追逐 25 個基點,然後也許是存款的另一個點,在本季度我們確實看到 CRE 客戶使用現金進行收購。他們不是用首付來支付這些首付,而是用現金來購買新的房產,這些房產也會存在於我們的服務帳簿中。因此,在這兩種情況下,我們都看到這些方面的存款略低一些。我們將觀察下半年的情況,但通常我們的存款最低點是在納稅季節後的四月中下旬。這種情況確實持續到了五月份,但我們看到了良好的反彈,特別是在本季末的商業方面。我們擁有良好的商業存款管道,我們預計下半年這一管道將會成長,但考慮到本季我們聽到的業內一些評論,我們非常關注競爭對手的一些存款行動。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Got you, perfect, thank you. And then switch to capital for just a second, so I think you're now at the high end of the mark common equity tier one target just maybe a thought on, where we are sort of resuming, repurchase and sort of order of magnitude in terms of appetite as we look into the second half of the year.

    明白了,非常好,謝謝。然後切換到資本一秒鐘,所以我認為你現在處於普通股一級目標的高端,也許只是想想,當我們展望下半年時,我們將恢復、回購並在胃口方面達到一定的數量級。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So Scott, it's kind of our thought on capital is one, yes, we are at the high end of our targeted marked CET1 right at 10%. Having said that, we've said that in this environment we think it's good to carry a little additional capital and preserve optionality. There's a few things going on. One, our underlying organic business is very strong right now, and we want to make sure we have capital to support our clients first and foremost in the marketplace.

    所以史考特,我們對資本的想法是,是的,我們的目標 CET1 上限是 10%。話雖如此,我們說過,在這種環境下,我們認為持有少量額外資本並保留選擇性是件好事。有幾件事正在發生。首先,我們的基礎有機業務目前非常強勁,我們希望確保我們擁有資本來首先在市場上支持我們的客戶。

  • Secondly. I think there's going to be an opportunity out there for kind of for us to continue to invest in people and if they may come in groups, invest in technology, which I just talked about that's high on our list. The next thing that I think you'll see us kind of continuing that we always look at is kind of niche or tuck in acquisitions. I think we're pretty good at buying these entrepreneurial groups and plugging them into our platform. Obviously the dividend is important.

    第二。我認為,我們將有機會繼續投資於人才,如果他們可以集體投資於技術,那麼我們就有機會繼續投資於技術,我剛才提到,這是我們優先考慮的事情。我認為您會看到我們接下來會繼續關注的某種利基市場或收購。我認為我們非常擅長收購這些創業團體並將其納入我們的平台。顯然股利很重要。

  • And then that gives you kind of at the bottom of the stack that gives you two things that we could do with the excess cap. One is we could do tweaking of our balance sheet, which we're constantly looking at, or we could resume our share repurchases. I think we'll do that, but it'll be kind of a crawl walk run approach. I would say that in the third quarter you can assume that we would have modest share repurchases. And then probably stepping up later in the fourth quarter. That's how we're thinking about it now based on the opportunities that we have in front of us.

    然後,這就給了你一種在堆疊底部可以用多餘的上限做的兩件事。一是我們可以調整我們一直在關注的資產負債表,或者我們可以恢復股票回購。我想我們會這樣做,但這將是一種爬行、走路和跑步的方法。我想說的是,在第三季度,你可以假設我們會進行適度的股票回購。然後可能在第四季後期有所加強。這就是我們現在根據眼前的機會所考慮的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • I guess maybe just Clark following up with you on the NII and the margin outlook I think in the past you've talked about the margin potentially hitting 3% as you think about the normalized level for the margin. So if you don't mind if we think about the 275 exit run rate in the fourth quarter one, do you think, we can get to 3%.

    我想也許只是克拉克跟進您關於 NII 和利潤前景的問題,我認為過去您曾談到利潤率可能達到 3%,因為您考慮的是利潤率的正常化水平。因此,如果您不介意的話,我們考慮一下第四季度的 275 退出運行率,您認為我們可以達到 3% 嗎?

  • By next year and in that world I know you talked about the loan to deposit ratio like is the balance sheet larger or smaller before you get to the 3%.

    到明年,在那個世界裡,我知道你談到了貸款與存款比率,就像在達到 3% 之前資產負債表是更大還是更小。

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, so look, I think one note, we're at 266 in the quarter and as we noted we are, carrying a little bit extra cash that probably cost us 4 or 5 basis points on them so I think there's, continued strong performance there we still feel confident that, by end of 26 we can be at 3% at the current course and speed.

    是的,所以你看,我認為有一點需要注意,我們本季的業績為 266,正如我們所指出的,我們持有一些額外的現金,這可能花費了我們 4 或 5 個基點,所以我認為我們將繼續保持強勁的表現,我們仍然有信心,按照目前的進程和速度,到 26 月底,我們的業績可以達到 3%。

  • In terms of balance sheet size I'd say there's, probably a couple ways to think about it, one in our business model and this is not a an NII specific answer but we don't feel that we necessarily need to grow the balance sheet to grow the business given some of our capital markets distribution capabilities that said, we will continue to see residential real estate run off, something like. About $600 million a quarters what we've seen this year, maybe another 2 billion or so next year that affords us some liquidity to invest in CNI growth on an ongoing basis and at this point, given our liquidity position we could take down cash and or reduce the securities book a little bit if we wanted to so I think there's ways to actually grow NII

    就資產負債表規模而言,我想說,可能有幾種思考方式,一種是我們的商業模式,這不是一個針對 NII 的具體答案,但我們認為,考慮到我們的一些資本市場分銷能力,我們不一定需要擴大資產負債表來發展業務,也就是說,我們將繼續看到住宅房地產的流失,諸如此類。我們今年每季的支出約為 6 億美元,明年可能還會再增加 20 億美元左右,這為我們提供了一些流動性,可以持續投資於 CNI 的成長。目前,考慮到我們的流動性狀況,如果我們願意的話,我們可以減少現金或減少證券帳簿,所以我認為有辦法真正增加 NII

  • And reflect that in a better nm over time without necessarily a significantly larger balance sheet, but again we'll operate based on to some degree where the environment is and we've carried additional cash in the quarter just given the April pause and some of the uncertainty we've seen out there.

    並隨著時間的推移在更好的nm中反映這一點,而不一定需要顯著擴大的資產負債表,但我們會在一定程度上根據環境進行運營,並且考慮到 4 月份的暫停以及我們看到的一些不確定性,我們在本季度持有額外的現金。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • Got it. And I guess maybe just going back, so I think it my takeaway based on your responses was momentum both on lending and capital markets seems to be strengthening as we look into the back half of the year, and I think Chris you mentioned about hiring of bankers. Just remind us, the, I'm not sure if you spelled out, the number of bankers you plan to hire and are these within your existing verticals kind of what's the focus when you think about incremental banker hiring.

    知道了。我想也許只是回顧一下,所以我認為根據您的回答,我認為隨著我們展望今年下半年,貸款和資本市場的勢頭似乎都在加強,我想克里斯您提到了聘請銀行家的問題。只是提醒我們,我不確定您是否詳細說明了您計劃僱用的銀行家數量,以及這些數量是否屬於您現有的垂直領域,當您考慮增加銀行家僱用時的重點是什麼。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, so what we said is we're going to increase our front line people by 10% and specifically we talked about investment bankers, so we're really building those are clearly being built out within our verticals. We talked about middle market relationship managers and those folks, as are typically in a in a given geography, but they obviously point to many of our industry verticals because that's where we have the greatest leverage in the marketplace.

    是的,我們說過要將第一線員工增加 10%,特別是投資銀行家,因此我們確實在垂直行業內招募這些員工。我們討論了中端市場關係經理和那些通常位於特定地區的人員,但他們顯然指向我們的許多垂直行業,因為那是我們在市場上擁有最大影響力的地方。

  • We've talked about wealth managers and our wealth managers are a little bit different than some because we're often for it when it comes to massive fluent mining the huge opportunity that we have within our existing business, we've only penetrated to the tune of about. 10% in our mass affluent area so our our hiring there is a little bit different. Also our payment advisors, Ibrahim are typically really software folks because it's all about implementation of our complex and important embedded banking, for example. So those are the kind of people we're hiring and as we mentioned in our opening remarks, there's there's a lot of people available right now.

    我們討論過財富經理,我們的財富經理與其他一些經理略有不同,因為當涉及到大規模流暢挖掘我們現有業務中的巨大機會時,我們通常會這樣做,我們只滲透到大約。 10% 在我們的大眾富裕地區,所以我們在那裡的招募有點不同。此外,我們的支付顧問 Ibrahim 通常也是軟體人員,因為這一切都是為了實施我們複雜而重要的嵌入式銀行業務。我們正在招募的就是這類人才,正如我們在開場白中提到的那樣,現在有很多人可供選擇。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris McGratty, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

    克里斯麥格拉蒂、基夫、布魯耶特和伍茲。

  • Christopher McGratty - Analyst

    Christopher McGratty - Analyst

  • Chris, on the deregulatory question, I think you addressed the kind of uses of capital, but if we think about, where he is spending money, you talked about the increase in tax spend if we do get broader deregulatory reform, is there a reallocation of where you're allocating dollars maybe towards more productive revenue producers versus, more, back office regulatory costs.

    克里斯,關於放鬆管制的問題,我認為你談到了資本的用途,但如果我們考慮一下,他的錢都花在哪裡了,你談到了稅收支出的增加,如果我們確實進行了更廣泛的放鬆管制改革,那麼你是否會重新分配資金,也許是將資金用於更有生產力的收入來源,而不是用於更多的後台監管成本。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, the interesting thing, Chris, is we've really, even though Basel 3 Endgame hasn't been finalized and there's liquidity rules out there, we have basically adopted all of the proposals as they've come out. So we really feel like the investment that we've needed to make in terms of sort of the plumbing has been made and so we feel. Like we have the opportunity to really lean in on hiring more front line people because we think we have a unique business model and also on technology.

    嗯,有趣的是,克里斯,儘管《巴塞爾協議三》終局尚未最終確定,而且還有流動性規則,但我們基本上已經採納了所有已經出台的提案。因此,我們確實覺得我們在管道方面需要進行的投資已經完成了,我們也是這麼認為的。就像我們有機會真正傾向於僱用更多的一線人員,因為我們認為我們擁有獨特的商業模式和技術。

  • So I think you'd see us really no matter where I mean the right clearly the regulatory environment is going to do nothing but get more favorable and we feel like from a starting point of where we are, we're in good stead there.

    所以我認為無論我們身在何處,你都會看到我們,我的意思是,監管環境顯然只會變得更加有利,我們覺得從我們所處的起點來看,我們處於有利地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Ben Reissbeck], Autonomous.

    [本·雷斯貝克],《自治》。

  • Kenneth Houston - Analyst

    Kenneth Houston - Analyst

  • It's Ken Houston. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that, kept about 20% of the $30 billion you originated for clients. It's a little higher of a keep rate than you had in the past. I'm just wondering how much more are you willing to push that in terms of both seeing the improved potential originations out there and and your comfort with like your whole levels of that origination capacity.

    我是肯‧休斯頓。您在準備好的發言中提到,您為客戶保留了 300 億美元中的約 20%。它的保留率比過去的要高一點。我只是想知道,在看到潛在發起能力的提高以及您對整個發起能力水平的滿意度方面,您願意在多大程度上推動這一點。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, well that's a great observation. Typically over over time we've typically held about 18% and as you point out we were above 20%, we were 22% this last quarter and it really can is all driven on what's in the client's best interest and when the markets dislocated a bit for three weeks in April, it gave us the opportunity to structure things and put them on our balance sheet in a manner that we'd be very satisfied to have them on our balance sheet.

    是的,這是一個很好的觀察。通常,隨著時間的推移,我們通常持有約 18% 的股份,正如您所指出的,我們的股份超過了 20%,上個季度我們的股份為 22%,而這一切都取決於客戶的最佳利益,當市場在 4 月份的三週內出現一些波動時,它給了我們機會來構建事物,並將它們以一種讓我們的負債表上放在我們的資產表上。

  • So if I've said this before, actually, if everything's flashing green, it's really hard given our platform if we get a little bit of dislocation in the market, that's actually good for us and it was certainly good for us last quarter.

    所以如果我之前說過的話,實際上,如果一切都閃著綠光,考慮到我們的平台,如果市場上出現一點混亂,這真的很難,但這實際上對我們來說是好事,上個季度對我們來說肯定是好事。

  • Kenneth Houston - Analyst

    Kenneth Houston - Analyst

  • And just a little bit of a dig on the dig in on the line you had talked mid quarter about line you being up and it looks like it was only up about 0.5% in the quarter itself. Can you just talk about the dynamics that you're seeing there in terms of unfunded growth and also just clients' willingness to draw down their lines.

    稍微挖掘一下您在季度中期談到的線路上漲情況,看起來本季線路僅上漲了約 0.5%。您能否談談您所看到的無資金增長的動態以及客戶減少貸款額度的意願。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, that's a, that, that's a great question, and it's one that frankly has confounded us. I would have thought that people would have been aggressively forward buying all the tariffs. It's interesting in the middle of the quarter we were actually up more like 1%, and we ended up the quarter up about 0.5%. It continues to be something that we're watching.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題,坦白說,這個問題讓我們感到困惑。我原本以為人們會積極購買所有關稅。有趣的是,在本季中期,我們的成長實際上超過了 1%,而本季結束時我們的成長約為 0.5%。我們仍在持續關注此事。

  • Obviously that's the easiest way for us to grow loans. If I think as we get into an environment where there's probably more certainty, we may see people forward buying the tariffs, but we have not seen a lot of that in our book and we're pretty close to our to our customers. I've been surprised.

    顯然這是我們增加貸款最簡單的方法。如果我認為,當我們進入一個可能更確定的環境時,我們可能會看到人們提前購買關稅,但我們在我們的帳簿上並沒有看到很多這樣的情況,而且我們與客戶的聯繫非常密切。我感到很驚訝。

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • No, one other slight point on that utilization rate 10 is the denominator grew a little bit in the quarter as well, so that would not set the entire 0.5% but would certainly, bring it down a little bit.

    不,關於利用率 10 的另一個小問題是,分母在本季度也增長了一點,因此這不會設定整個 0.5%,但肯定會將其降低一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

    馬南‧戈薩利亞,摩根士丹利。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Can you talk about, just pricing competition and both the loan and deposit side, I think some of your peers have noted some pressure on spreads, and you also called out, tighter spreads in the capital markets. So if you think about, your forward loan growth, can you talk about how you expect spreads, to trend and, maybe also on the deposit side, I think you called out that you expect more competition there so if you can talk a little bit more about that.

    您能否談談價格競爭以及貸款和存款方面的問題?我認為您的一些同行已經注意到利差面臨的一些壓力,您也呼籲資本市場的利差收緊。因此,如果您考慮遠期貸款成長,您能否談談您預期的利差趨勢,以及在存款方面,我認為您提到您預計那裡會有更多的競爭,因此您能否就此多談一談。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, so let's let's start with loans because we've touched a little bit on deposits this morning. So on the loans if you look at the pricing of our loans, we're basically flat year over year we are seeing, additional competition, additional market participants, and that sometimes manifests itself in people taking larger hold levels it manifests itself in people stretching maybe a bit on structure we clearly aren't doing that.

    當然,讓我們從貸款開始,因為我們今天早上已經談到了存款。因此,就貸款而言,如果你看一下我們貸款的定價,就會發現我們基本上是逐年持平的,我們看到,競爭加劇,市場參與者增多,有時表現為人們採取更大的持有水平,有時表現為人們在結構上有所延伸,我們顯然沒有這樣做。

  • But as I've said many times, a properly graded commercial loan can't return its cost of capital, and that's why our business model is so important, Manon, in that we can do so many other things for these clients. So our pricing is actually stayed flat. But I think pricing on quality loans will continue to be a challenge just based on what I see as excess capacity out there.

    但正如我多次說過的,適當評級的商業貸款無法收回其資本成本,這就是為什麼我們的商業模式如此重要,Manon,因為我們可以為這些客戶做很多其他事情。所以我們的定價實際上保持不變。但我認為,鑑於目前產能過剩,優質貸款的定價仍將是一項挑戰。

  • Having said that, as you can see, we are able to monetize these relationships in a variety of ways, well over 95. Percent of our borrowing commercial customers in fact have a more wholesome relationship than just borrowing. So I think that's really important. I think that's the key and that frankly is how banks like like key can compete with a variety of competitors.

    話雖如此,正如您所見,我們能夠透過多種方式將這些關係貨幣化,遠遠超過 95 種。事實上,我們借款的商業客戶中,有百分之幾的人與我們有比僅僅藉貸更健康的關係。所以我認為這非常重要。我認為這是關鍵,坦白說,這也是像這樣的銀行如何與各種競爭對手競爭的關鍵。

  • On the deposit front I think Clark covered that we've we've seen very rational pricing to date although obviously we like you have heard some of the recent discussions of of increased focus on on pricing. Clark, what would you add to that?

    在存款方面,我認為克拉克提到,到目前為止,我們已經看到了非常合理的定價,儘管我們顯然像您聽到的最近一些關於更加關注定價的討論一樣。克拉克,您對此還有什麼補充嗎?

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • Look, we're we noted, a little bit more competitive. Pricing on the commercial deposit side, we'll watch watch that closely, particularly as we expect some growth in that book in the second half I think broadly, in our markets at least consumer pricing has been pretty rational as Chris noted there are some spots where we've seen, either a push on premiums or a push on.

    瞧,我們注意到,我們的競爭力變得更強了。對於商業存款方面的定價,我們將密切關注,特別是因為我們預計下半年該賬簿會有所增長,我認為總體而言,在我們的市場中,至少消費者定價是相當合理的,正如克里斯指出的那樣,我們已經看到一些地方,要么是保費上漲,要么是上漲。

  • Some teaser rates, we have seen conversely in a couple western markets some large players actually take their front book rates down so it's a little bit of a mixed bag and I think when you get to this level in the deposit game it is a very local market to market business and we're watching it in exactly that way.

    相反,我們在幾個西方市場看到一些誘惑利率,一些大型參與者實際上降低了他們的前台賬簿利率,所以情況有點複雜,我認為當你在存款遊戲中達到這個水平時,這是一個非常本地化的市場對市場的業務,我們正以這種方式觀察它。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Maybe on the credit side, with the strong C&I growth and the makeshift in loans, how should we think about the reserve ratio from here? Has it bottomed here or is there more room to bring it down if, criticized loans and NPLs keep moving lower?

    也許在信貸方面,隨著工商企業強勁成長和臨時貸款的出現,我們該如何看待準備金率?它是否已經觸底,或者如果受到批評的貸款和不良貸款繼續下降,是否還有更大的下跌空間?

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, I mean, look, 33 things, as drive the reserve, right? The loan growth, the general credit quality of our own book, and then the macroeconomic environment. So I think our, as we said our our credit metrics overall stable to improving if we continue in that direction you would see that reflected appropriately in the reserve half of our bill this quarter was really loan growth, so you know that's a high class problem generally speaking.

    是的,我的意思是,看,有 33 件東西可以作為備用動力,對嗎?貸款成長、我們自身帳簿的整體信用質量,以及宏觀經濟環境。因此,我認為,正如我們所說,我們的信貸指標總體穩定並不斷改善,如果我們繼續朝這個方向發展,您會看到,本季度我們賬單的儲備金一半確實反映了貸款增長,所以您知道這通常是一個高級問題。

  • And then the macroeconomic conditions obviously are a little bit outside our control. We'll reflect that appropriately. I think if some of the upside that Chris referenced earlier came to pass and that, led to a stronger, more constructive economy, there's clearly room to reduce the reserve, but, we still see a fair amount of uncertainty and that's why we didn't pull off the entirety of the qualitative reserve we put on in the first quarter.

    宏觀經濟狀況顯然有點超出我們的控制範圍。我們將適當反映這一點。我認為,如果克里斯之前提到的一些好處能夠實現,並帶來更強勁、更具建設性的經濟,那麼顯然就有減少儲備的空間,但是,我們仍然看到相當大的不確定性,這就是為什麼我們沒有提取第一季度投入的全部定性儲備。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Just wanted to unpack, the loan growth guide, ending loans up 2%. You're already there for the first half of the year. Is that dynamic that you're expecting for the second half related to Clark what you said about maybe some resi growth funding loan growth?

    只是想解開貸款成長指南,最終貸款成長了 2%。你已經在那裡度過了上半年。您對下半年動態的預期是否與克拉克所說的有關,即可能存在一些住宅成長融資貸款成長?

  • I mean, Chris sounded quite. Bullish, he said underlying organic growth is very strong. I'm sure he's referring to C&I, so wanted to unpack that and clarify what you had said about, you said something about getting to the midpoint of the NII guide would require, 2% to 3% organic growth and I just wanted to, circle that square.

    我的意思是,克里斯聽起來很安靜。他樂觀地表示,潛在的有機成長非常強勁。我確信他指的是 C&I,所以想解釋一下並澄清你所說的內容,你說要達到 NII 指南的中點需要 2% 到 3% 的有機增長,我只是想圈出那個方塊。

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • So on maybe start with the latter which is, if you go from our second quarter results and get to the midpoint of the guide at 21%, you sort of have somewhere in the 2 to 3 range of growth in the quarters to get there, which we think is, again not necessarily simple but we think very achievable so if that.

    因此,也許可以從後者開始,也就是說,如果你從我們的第二季度業績來看,並達到指南的中點 21%,那麼你需要在未來 2 到 3 個季度內實現增長,我們認為這不一定簡單,但我們認為如果那樣的話,這是非常可以實現的。

  • Doesn't make sense then let me know and we can we can go deeper into that on the loan growth I think it's what you noted there which -- but we saw stronger growth in the first half than we expected. We continue to expect to see growth just again not necessarily on balance sheet at the same level. It'll be offset by what we would expect right now, which is a little bit of CRE pay down and some resi real estate pay down.

    如果這沒有意義,請告訴我,我們可以更深入地討論貸款成長問題,我想這就是你所指出的——但我們看到上半年的成長比我們預期的要強勁。我們仍然期望再次看到成長,但資產負債表上不一定會保持同一水準。它將被我們現在預期的所抵消,也就是少量的 CRE 償還和一些住宅房地產償還。

  • So right now we're sort of kind of net neutral on a balance basis but moving more and more to that C&I profile which you know we prefer. The other way I would think about it is if the capital markets get really strong.

    因此,目前我們在平衡基礎上保持某種網路中立,但越來越多地轉向我們更喜歡的 C&I 概況。我會從另一個角度來考慮這個問題:資本市場是否真的變得強勁。

  • You could actually see more of that loan production go straight into the market and even some come off balance sheet and get refied into the market. That's pretty typical and that would be our model which is often reflected in kind of the lower retention rate of the capital we raise in a quarter. Conversely, if things slow, as Chris noted, we might use the balance sheet a little bit more, but it's probably on aggregate lower volume so it gets us kind of similarly to a balance sheet growth rate.

    實際上,你可以看到更多的貸款直接進入市場,甚至有些貸款從資產負債表出來並重新進入市場。這是非常典型的,這也是我們的模式,這通常反映在我們在一個季度籌集的資本的較低保留率上。相反,如果情況放緩,正如克里斯指出的那樣,我們可能會更多地使用資產負債表,但總體而言,它的規模可能會較低,因此它使我們得到類似於資產負債表增長率的結果。

  • On the C&I side, which again we think it's, offset by the runoff in those other portfolios, all of that to say if some of the upside based on the cap backs and bonus depreciation provisions does occur, that's not really in the guide and you could see some potential for a little bit of outperformance on CNN.

    在商業和工業方面,我們再次認為,這被其他投資組合的流失所抵消,所有這些都表明,如果基於資本返還和獎金折舊準備金的一些上行空間確實出現,那麼這實際上並不在指南中,您可能會看到 CNN 有一點點優異表現的潛力。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And we're assuming at current rates that the runoff of our mortgage book is $600 million to $700 million a quarter just to give it in perspective.

    為了便於理解,我們假設以目前的利率,我們的抵押貸款每季的損失為 6 億至 7 億美元。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • And my second question is just wanted to sort of unpack maybe the balance sheet mix for the rest of the year and into 26. Clark, you mentioned I think 4 to 5 basis point, net interest margin impact from excess cash. I think you said you're running, you have $4 billion to $5 billion more, than you need, I guess I'm wondering as we think about the balance of the year. How you're thinking about, running down that excess liquidity or or not and how we should think about, deposit growth from here.

    我的第二個問題是,我想大概分析一下今年剩餘時間和 26 年的資產負債表組合。克拉克,您提到,我認為過剩現金對淨利差的影響為 4 到 5 個基點。我想你說過,你擁有的資金比你需要的多出 40 億到 50 億美元,我想當我們考慮今年的餘額時,我會感到疑惑。您如何考慮減少過剩流動性,以及我們應該如何考慮從現在開始的存款成長。

  • I think fully understand your comments on on pricing, but as we think about, the second half of the year, should you we expect TCorp to continue to prioritize price optimization versus deposit growth, or are there sort of seasonal and business benefits to the second half?

    我認為我完全理解您對定價的評論,但是當我們考慮下半年時,您是否應該預期 TCorp 會繼續優先考慮價格優化而不是存款增長,或者下半年是否會有某種季節性和商業利益?

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, so great question, and you hit on a a bunch of the components, so we generally would see seasonal growth in the second half, we would expect that, as I noted in the commercial book for sure, although we'll watch the kind of price balance trade off. I don't think given the loan growth we saw that we would be as sort of slanted to pricing versus bounces as we were in the first half, I think we'd be in a in a little bit more of a lack of ironic term, a balanced approach here between, rate and dollars.

    是的,這個問題問得很好,你提到了很多因素,所以我們通常會在下半年看到季節性增長,我們預計,正如我在商業書中肯定指出的那樣,儘管我們會觀察價格平衡的權衡。我不認為,考慮到我們看到的貸款成長情況,我們會像上半年那樣傾向於定價而不是反彈,我認為我們會在利率和美元之間採取平衡的方法,這是缺乏諷刺意味的術語。

  • And I think you'll see stable to slightly growing consumer deposits as well so I think we we'd expect the deposit book overall to grow we think we have a little bit all things being equal a little bit of pricing opportunity here just as CDs and MMDA promos roll off. But we're watching that closely. There's been a lot of deposit dynamics, in the industry as we heard through the last week of Bernie's calls, so we'll watch it closely, but, I don't think we will be, as rate oriented in the second half.

    而且我認為您會看到消費者存款穩定或略有增長,因此我認為我們預計存款總額會增長,我們認為我們在所有條件相同的情況下有一點定價機會,就像 CD 和 MMDA 促銷活動推出一樣。但我們正在密切關注。正如我們在上週伯尼的電話中聽到的那樣,業內出現了很多存款動態,因此我們將密切關注,但我認為我們不會像下半年那樣以利率為導向。

  • And then on your cash question, look, given April and some of the other uncertainty we certainly felt comfortable carrying a little bit more cash didn't really impact NII at all it did drop the nim a little artificially. As long as we feel like the environment's constructive we probably bring that level down, and we'll continue to watch that as it transpires over the next month or so.

    然後關於您的現金問題,考慮到 4 月份和其他一些不確定因素,我們當然覺得攜帶多一點現金並不會真正影響 NII,它確實人為地降低了 nim。只要我們覺得環境是正面的,我們就可能降低這個水平,並且我們會在接下來的一個月左右繼續關注這種情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Pancari, Evercore.

    約翰·潘卡里(John Pancari),Evercore。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • Just looking for additional color on the loan growth drivers within C&I. I know it sounds like you do expect some strengthening there, particularly as you, see the continued roll off in CRE and then and you're investing the. The residential roll off into C&I.

    只是想尋找有關 C&I 內部貸款成長動力的更多細節。我知道這聽起來你確實期望那裡會有一些加強,特別是當你看到 CRE 持續下滑,然後你正在投資。住宅區延伸至 C&I 區。

  • What are the industries and what type of lending do you expect to be to gain the greatest momentum within the C&I book throughout the back half? And does your guidance for commercial growth, does it reflect that expectation that the capital markets gain steam and you could see some financing go into the markets?

    您預計下半年哪些行業和哪種類型的貸款將在商業和工業領域獲得最大的發展動能?您對商業成長的指導是否反映了資本市場蓬勃發展的預期,以及您是否會看到一些融資進入市場?

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So let me start with the last part of the question first. It does not, I mean we sort of assume kind of continuation of the way the markets are currently operating, because that's just an easier way to plan in terms of where we can sit where we see the volume it's pretty broad based but we're fortunate in that we are significant players in certain areas that lend themselves to sort of continuous new projects.

    那麼讓我先從問題的最後一部分開始。事實並非如此,我的意思是,我們假設市場目前的運作方式會延續下去,因為這只是一種更容易規劃的方式,我們可以坐在那裡看到交易量相當廣泛,但我們很幸運,因為我們是某些領域的重要參與者,可以進行持續的新項目。

  • One would be renewables and obviously renewables have been in the media a lot lately we finance literally the the best players in the renewable energy space. The way that the bill was written is as long as you're completed in four years you're in good shape and so our backlogs there are intact and in talking to our leaders there we feel good about that.

    一個是再生能源,顯然再生能源最近經常出現在媒體上,我們實際上為再生能源領域的最佳參與者提供資金。該法案的寫法是,只要你在四年內完成,你的狀況就很好,所以我們在那裡的積壓工作是完好的,在與那裡的領導人交談時,我們對此感到滿意。

  • The next area where we get a lot of growth is affordable. Affordable is one of the few areas that I've always said, people on all on both sides of the aisle really agree on, and there's a bunch of things that are very good on a net basis for affordable.

    我們獲得巨大成長的下一個領域是經濟適用房。我一直強調,價格實惠是少數幾個得到兩黨人士真正認同的領域之一,而且有很多東西從淨值來看都是非常好的,而且價格實惠。

  • So those pipelines are strong and then the other place where we're getting a fair amount of growth is around both our healthcare business obviously. Healthcare is going through a big transformation. There's opportunity there. We also have a public sector business that's having a good year and then just broadly our middle market bankers are gaining share broadly. So that that's where the growth is coming from both that which we funded and that that which we see in the pipeline.

    所以這些管道非常強大,而我們獲得相當大成長的另一個領域顯然是我們的醫療保健業務。醫療保健正在經歷巨大的變革。那裡有機會。我們的公共部門業務今年也表現良好,而且我們的中型市場銀行家的份額正在廣泛擴大。所以,成長既來自於我們所資助的項目,也來自於我們在籌備中的項目。

  • John Pancari - Analyst

    John Pancari - Analyst

  • And then separately on the capital front we've seen a pick up in sector M&A amid the regional activity and, just curious in your updated thoughts around bank M&A, where is it on your priority list and would you consider smaller transactions at all on that front if something interesting came up and then maybe just an updated outlook around nonbank.

    然後,在資本方面,我們看到區域活動中行業併購活動有所回升,我很好奇您對銀行併購的最新想法,它在您的優先事項中處於什麼位置?如果出現一些有趣的事情,您是否會考慮在這方面進行小額交易?然後也許只是對非銀行業務的最新展望。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, so I'll start with banks, and specifically I'll talk about kind of our appetite. It's not high on our list. I kind of walk through our capital priorities, not high on our list of priorities, I just think right now I think there's an environment where in the larger banks you have a lot of people interested in buying and no one interested in selling and with smaller banks I think you probably have a lot of people that are interested in selling and not a lot of people interested in buying.

    當然,我將從銀行開始,並具體談談我們的興趣。它在我們的名單上排名並不高。我大致介紹了一下我們的資本優先事項,這些事項在我們的優先事項中並不靠前,我只是認為現在的情況是,在大型銀行中,有很多人對購買感興趣,而沒有人對出售感興趣;而在小型銀行中,我認為可能有很多人對出售感興趣,而沒有多少人對購買感興趣。

  • Having said that, I do think we're going to start to see a pickup in bank M&A. We've already seen obviously a little bit of that, so that's the first point. The second point, is actually really important for our business, and that is just greater velocity in M&A in general. We obviously have a very large M&A business, that business, middle market M&A has been down significantly.

    話雖如此,我確實認為我們將開始看到銀行併購活動的回升。我們顯然已經看到了一點,這是第一點。第二點,其實對我們的業務來說非常重要,那就是整體而言併購速度更快。我們顯然擁有非常大的併購業務,該業務中端市場併購業務已大幅下降。

  • And I think you're going to see that start to pick up after Labor Day. So in spite of how well our investment bank is performing, we're not, we haven't gotten much of a lift on M&A, and I think people are getting pretty good clarity now on what can get done and importantly, how quickly things can be approved, and I think that holds true for banking and non-banking.

    我認為勞動節過後你會看到這種情況開始好轉。因此,儘管我們的投資銀行表現良好,但我們在併購方面並沒有取得太大的進展,我認為人們現在已經非常清楚可以做什麼,以及重要的是,事情能多快獲得批准,我認為這對銀行業和非銀行業都是如此。

  • Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

    Clark Khayat - Chief Financial Officer

  • And maybe it's just the last add on is the nonbank acquisition front for us which Chris I think noted once or twice and just that there's a little bit of our bread and butter and we consistently look at that whether it's capital markets payments. Or anything else that fits our priority fee businesses generally and we'll continue to do that.

    也許這只是我們最後一個附加部分,即非銀行收購方面,我想克里斯已經提到過一兩次了,這是我們的生計來源,我們一直在關注它,無論是資本市場支付。或任何其他適合我們優先費用業務的事情,我們將繼續這樣做。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, we have a long history there. I'm really proud of our ability to buy entrepreneurial businesses. This goes back to all the partnerships we did with fintech and all the boutiques. Not many large companies, I don't think do a really good job of bringing on entrepreneurial businesses, and I think we do. We look at a lot of them, John, we obviously don't act on many but I think that's an opportunity for us.

    是的,我們在那裡有著悠久的歷史。我為我們有能力收購創業企業而感到自豪。這要歸功於我們與金融科技和所有精品店建立的所有合作關係。我認為,沒有多少大公司在吸引創業型企業方面做得非常好,但我認為我們做到了。約翰,我們研究了很多,但顯然我們並沒有採取很多行動,但我認為這對我們來說是一個機會。

  • Mohit Ramani - Chief Risk Officer

    Mohit Ramani - Chief Risk Officer

  • And John, it's Mo Romani, chief risk Chief Risk Officer. Just on your prior comments on loan growth, we do look at that closely. We've been able to grow without stretching our risk appetite. So for example, we look at weighted average risk rating at origination versus the back book. We look at policy exceptions, so there's nothing that'll give us concern that we're having a stretch to achieve this loan growth.

    約翰,我是首席風險長莫‧羅馬尼 (Mo Romani)。正如您之前對貸款成長的評論一樣,我們確實對此進行了密切關注。我們能夠在不擴大風險承受能力的情況下實現成長。例如,我們查看發起時的加權平均風險評級與後續帳簿。我們研究了政策例外情況,因此沒有什麼事情會讓我們擔心要實現這一貸款成長會很困難。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的馬修·奧康納。

  • Matt O-Connor - Analyst

    Matt O-Connor - Analyst

  • Can you frame how far along you are in terms of adding the 10% bankers across the businesses? Are you halfway? Have you front ended it a bit?

    您能否概括一下在將 10% 的銀行家納入到整個企業的過程中取得了多大的進展?你已經走到一半了?你已經將它提前完成了嗎?

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I don't have those numbers in each of the categories, Matt, but we're we front ended a bit because as you know there's somewhat of a recruiting season and so we've been very busy from the time people receive their bonuses to present and obviously as we get late in the year it will tail off.

    馬特,我沒有每個類別的數字,但是我們稍微提前了一些,因為你知道現在正處於招聘季節,所以從人們收到獎金到現在我們一直非常忙碌,顯然隨著年底的到來,它將會逐漸減少。

  • Matt O-Connor - Analyst

    Matt O-Connor - Analyst

  • And then just separately, any updated thoughts on, consumer lending strategy? I know you talked about continued rundown in the mortgage book, and obviously other areas, have been running off as well, but just any updated strategic thoughts on consumer lending?

    然後單獨來說,對於消費者貸款策略有什麼最新的想法嗎?我知道您談到了抵押貸款帳簿的持續縮減,顯然其他領域也一直在縮減,但是您對消費貸款有什麼最新的戰略想法嗎?

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, Matt, I think what you'll see us is lean into, POs, we have the capability to do it we're in the business right now. And obviously our client base is older, has equity in their home for a variety of reasons that, well, probably won't be moving and we'll be looking at tapping into the equity and so I think that's probably a $2 billion or $3 billion opportunity for us as we ramp that up.

    當然,馬特,我想你會看到我們傾向於 PO,我們有能力做到這一點,我們現在正在做這項業務。顯然,我們的客戶群年齡較大,由於各種原因,他們的房屋淨值可能不會變動,我們將考慮利用這些淨值,因此我認為,隨著我們不斷擴大這一規模,這對我們來說可能是一個價值 20 億或 30 億美元的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I'll now pass it back to Chris Gorman for closing remarks.

    現在我將把它交還給克里斯·戈爾曼,請他作最後發言。

  • Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Christopher Gorman - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we appreciate everyone's interest and key in the discussion this morning. If anyone has any further questions, please reach out to our investor relations team directly.

    好吧,我們感謝大家對今天上午討論的興趣和參與。如果有人有任何其他問題,請直接聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。

  • Thank you, we're adjourned. Goodbye.

    謝謝大家,我們休會。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

    感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。