Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Kaiser Aluminum Corporation fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加凱撒鋁業公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kim Orlando, with ADDO Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興向大家介紹 ADDO 投資者關係部門的主持人 Kim Orlando。請繼續。

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Kaiser Aluminum's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call.

謝謝。大家好，歡迎參加凱撒鋁業 (Kaiser Aluminum) 2024 年第四季和全年收益電話會議。

If you have not seen a copy of our earnings release, please visit the Investor Relations page of our website at kaiseraluminum.com. We have also posted a PDF version of the slide presentation for this call. Joining me on the call today are Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Keith Harvey; and Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Neal West.

如果您尚未看到我們的收益報告副本，請造訪我們網站 kaiseraluminum.com 的投資者關係頁面。我們也發布了本次電話會議投影片簡報的 PDF 版本。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Keith Harvey；以及執行副總裁兼財務長尼爾·韋斯特 (Neal West)。

Before we begin, I'd like to refer you to the first four slides of our presentation and remind you that the statements made by management and the information contained in this presentation that constitute forward-look statements are based on management's current expectations. For some of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's earnings release and reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission including the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the full year ended December 31, 2023. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements to conform the statement to actual results or changes in the company's expectations.

在我們開始之前，我想請您看一下我們簡報的前四張投影片，並提醒您，管理層所做的陳述和本簡報中包含的構成前瞻性陳述的資訊均基於管理層當前的預期。對於可能導致結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的一些特定風險因素，請參閱本公司的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告，包括本公司截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的全年 10-K 表年度報告。本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述以使該陳述符合實際結果或公司預期變化的責任。

In addition, we have included non-GAAP financial information in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release and in the appendix of the presentation. Reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP financial measures are not provided because certain items required for such reconciliations are outside of control, and/or cannot be reasonably predicted or provided without unreasonable efforts. Any reference to EBITDA and our discussion today means adjusted EBITDA which excludes non-run rate items for which we have provided reconciliations in the appendix.

此外，我們在討論中也納入了非公認會計準則財務資訊。與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表已包含在收益報告和簡報的附錄中。未提供某些前瞻性非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，因為此類對賬所需的某些項目超出了控制範圍，和/或無法合理預測，或在不付出不合理努力的情況下提供。任何對 EBITDA 的提及和我們今天的討論均指調整後的 EBITDA，其中不包括我們在附錄中提供對帳的非運行率項目。

Further, slide 5 contains definitions of terms and measures that will be commonly used throughout today's presentation. At the conclusion of the company's presentation, we will open up the call for questions.

此外，投影片 5 包含在今天的簡報中常用的術語和措施的定義。在公司演示結束時，我們將開始提問。

I would now like to turn the call over to Keith Harvey. Keith?

現在我想將電話轉給基斯·哈維。基思？

Thanks, Kim, and thank you all for joining us for a review of our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results. Turning to Slide 7. Our results for the year met our expectations for both conversion revenue and margin expansion. This was our second consecutive year of EBITDA margin expansion increasing by approximately 60 basis points year-over-year. More notably, it has expanded by 460 basis points since the low established during the pandemic in 2022.

謝謝，Kim，感謝大家加入我們，回顧我們的 2021 年第四季和全年業績。翻到幻燈片 7。我們今年的業績符合我們對轉換收入和利潤率擴大的預期。這是我們 EBITDA 利潤率連續第二年擴大，年增約 60 個基點。更值得注意的是，自 2022 年大流行期間創下的低點以來，它已經擴大了 460 個基點。

In 2025, we expect to continue our progress towards achieving our EBITDA margin goals in the mid-20% range, which I will describe later. The market backdrop in 2024, really since the start of this pandemic has been complex and rapidly changing. I'm extremely proud of the work our team has done to position the company for an inflection in our performance while maintaining our unwavering focus on the execution on our long-standing commitment to meet our customers' needs a foundational element of our business.

到 2025 年，我們預計將繼續朝著 20% 左右的 EBITDA 利潤率目標邁進，我將在後面進行描述。2024 年的市場背景，其實自疫情開始以來就一直複雜且快速變化。我對我們團隊所做的工作感到非常自豪，他們為公司業績的提升做好了準備，同時我們始終堅定不移地專注於履行我們長期以來的承諾，即滿足客戶的需求，這是我們業務的基礎要素。

There were challenges in each of our end markets in 2024, particularly in packaging as we worked hard to meet the strong demand of our customers. As a result, we are bringing significant investments online this year to meet this growing demand, which I'll have more details to discuss later in the call. We expect market conditions to stabilize and become more favorable as we move through 2025 and believe the momentum we have been building over the last several years puts Kaiser in a very strong position for the future.

2024 年，我們每個終端市場都面臨挑戰，特別是在包裝領域，我們努力滿足客戶的強勁需求。因此，我們今年將在網上進行大量投資以滿足日益增長的需求，我將在稍後的電話會議上討論更多細節。我們預計，到 2025 年，市場狀況將會穩定下來並變得更加有利，我們相信，過去幾年來我們一直保持的良好勢頭將使 Kaiser 在未來佔據非常有利的地位。

Now, let me turn the call over to Neal.

現在，讓我把電話轉給尼爾。

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 9 with an overview of our 2024 full year shipments and conversion revenue. Our full year total net sales were just over $3 billion. After adjusting for the hedge cost of alloyed metal of $1.57 billion, our conversion revenue for the full year was $1.46 billion, a decrease of $10 million or 1% compared to 2023, while total shipments were down 24 million pounds or 2%.

謝謝你，基思，大家早安。我將從第 9 張投影片開始概述我們 2024 年全年出貨量和轉換收入。我們全年的總淨銷售額剛剛超過 30 億美元。經調整合金金屬對沖成本 15.7 億美元後，我們全年的轉換收入為 14.6 億美元，較 2023 年減少 1,000 萬美元或 1%，而總出貨量下降 2,400 萬磅或 2%。

Looking at each of our end market applications in detail, aero and strength conversion revenue totaled $530 million, down $4 million or approximately 1%, reflecting a 4% decline in shipments over last year. The strength of our customer contracts, high-quality products and superior customer service along with our diverse portfolio of products used in business, defense, space, and commercial end market applications helped to offset short-term disruptions within the commercial aircraft OEM order patterns, which have impacted the entire commercial aircraft production supply chain.

詳細查看我們每個終端市場應用，航空和強度轉換收入總計 5.3 億美元，下降 400 萬美元或約 1%，反映出出貨量比去年下降了 4%。我們強大的客戶合約實力、高品質的產品和卓越的客戶服務，以及我們在商業、國防、太空和商業終端市場應用中使用的多樣化產品組合，幫助抵消了商用飛機 OEM 訂單模式中的短期中斷，而這些中斷已經影響了整個商用飛機生產供應鏈。

Packaging conversion revenue totaled $490 million, down $13 million or approximately 3%, reflecting a 3% decline in shipments or 20 million pounds over 2023. From an industry perspective, underlying demand remains strong with our shipments continuing to sequentially increase for the fifth consecutive quarter. General -- revenue for 2024 was $313 million up 3% year-over-year due to a 6% increase in shipments despite operating in a very complex market. We are encouraged that pricing remained relatively stable regardless of uneven demand and import pressures. We continue to believe we earn a premium for our products driven by our Kaiser select product portfolio and industry-leading service and quality.

包裝轉換收入總計 4.9 億美元，下降 1,300 萬美元或約 3%，反映出 2023 年出貨量下降 3% 或 2,000 萬磅。從產業角度來看，潛在需求依然強勁，我們的出貨量連續第五個季度持續成長。總體——儘管在非常複雜的市場中運營，但 2024 年的收入仍為 3.13 億美元，同比增長 3%，原因是出貨量增長了 6%。我們很高興看到，儘管需求不均衡且進口壓力較大，價格仍保持相對穩定。我們始終相信，憑藉 Kaiser 精選產品組合和行業領先的服務和質量，我們的產品能夠獲得溢價。

And finally, automotive conversion revenue was $120 million, up 3% over 2023 and a 3% decline in shipments, primarily due to an improved product mix of higher value-added products. Additional details in conversion revenue and shipments by end market application can be found in the appendix of this presentation.

最後，汽車改裝收入為 1.2 億美元，比 2023 年成長 3%，出貨量下降 3%，這主要是由於高附加價值產品的產品組合改善。按終端市場應用劃分的轉換收入和出貨量的更多詳細資訊可在本簡報的附錄中找到。

Now moving to Slide 10. Reported operating income for 2024 was $88 million. After adjusting for non-run rate cost of approximately $12 million associated with the closure of our Sherman, Texas facility in June of 2024 and an increase in legacy environmental reserves.

現在轉到投影片 10。報告的 2024 年營業收入為 8,800 萬美元。在調整與 2024 年 6 月關閉德克薩斯州謝爾曼工廠相關的約 1200 萬美元的非運行成本以及遺留環境儲備的增加後。

Our adjusted operating income was $100 million, down $1 million from 2023. In addition, 2024 operating income included a $9 million increase in depreciation expense as we commissioned our growth in quality-driven capital investments during the year. Our effective tax rate for the full year 2024 was 26% compared to 16% in 2023 due primarily to an increase in valuation allowance on certain state operating losses and credits.

我們的調整後營業收入為 1 億美元，比 2023 年減少 100 萬美元。此外，由於我們在年內委託了品質驅動的資本投資成長，2024 年營業收入包括 900 萬美元的折舊費用增加。我們 2024 年全年的有效稅率為 26%，而 2023 年為 16%，這主要是由於某些州經營損失和抵免的估值準備金增加。

For the full year 2025, we expect our effective tax rate before discrete items to be in the low to mid-20% range under current tax regulations. We anticipate that our 2025 cash taxes for federal, state and foreign taxes will be in the $5 million to $7 million range. Reported net income for 2024 was $47 million or an income of $2.87 per diluted share, which was relatively consistent with the 2023 -- income and income of $2.92 per diluted share. After adjusting for pretax, non-run rate net gain of approximately $7 million, which primarily included nonstrategic land sales and insurance settlements related to prior year claims partially offset by restructuring and legacy environmental charges, adjusted net income for 2024 was $41 million or income of $2.51 per adjusted diluted share compared to an adjusted net income of $44 million or income of $2.74 per adjusted diluted share in 2023.

對於 2025 年全年而言，我們預計，根據現行稅法，扣除單獨項目前的有效稅率將處於 20% 的低點至中位數區間。我們預計，2025 年聯邦、州和外國的現金稅將在 500 萬至 700 萬美元之間。報告的 2024 年淨收入為 4,700 萬美元，即每股攤薄收入 2.87 美元，與 2023 年的收入和每股攤薄收入 2.92 美元相對一致。調整稅前非營利淨收益約 700 萬美元後，主要包括非戰略性土地銷售和與上年索賠相關的保險和解，但部分被重組和遺留環境費用所抵消，2024 年調整後淨收入為 4100 萬美元，或每股調整後攤薄收益 2.51 美元，而 2023 年調整後淨收入為 474 萬美元，

Now turning to Slide 11. Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $217 million, up approximately $7 million from 2023. Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of conversion revenue improved by approximately 60 basis points from 2023 to 14.9%. The improvement in adjusted EBITDA was driven primarily by improved product mix, partially offset by higher personnel and energy costs. We remain focused on improving operating efficiencies, executing on our recent capital investments, implementing our metal sourcing strategy and reducing costs in our business.

現在轉到投影片 11。2024 年調整後 EBITDA 為 2.17 億美元，比 2023 年增加約 700 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 佔轉換收入的百分比從 2023 年的 14.9% 提高約 60 個基點。調整後 EBITDA 的改善主要得益於產品結構的改善，但被人員和能源成本的提高部分抵銷。我們將繼續致力於提高營運效率、執行最近的資本投資、實施金屬採購策略和降低業務成本。

Now turning to a discussion of our balance sheet and cash flow. At the end of December 2024, total cash of approximately $18 million and approximately $553 million of net borrowing availability and our revolving credit facility provided total liquidity of $572 million. There were no outstanding borrowings under our revolving credit facility during and as of the quarter end December 31. Our total liquidity position remains strong. As a reminder, our senior note interest costs had fixed at $48 million annually, and we have no debt maturing until 2028.

現在來討論我們的資產負債表和現金流。截至 2024 年 12 月底，總現金約為 1,800 萬美元，可用淨借款約為 5.53 億美元，而我們的循環信貸額度提供了 5.72 億美元的總流動資金。截至本季末（12 月 31 日），我們的循環信貸安排下沒有未償還借款。我們的整體流動性狀況依然強勁。提醒一下，我們的優先票據利息成本固定為每年 4,800 萬美元，我們在 2028 年之前沒有債務到期。

As of year-end, our net debt leverage ratio was 4.8x against our target leverage ratio of 2 to 2.5x.

截至年底，我們的淨債務槓桿率為 4.8 倍，而我們的目標槓桿率為 2 至 2.5 倍。

Turning to capital allocation. Our full year 2024 capital expenditures came in at $181 million. With the fourth coating line investment work largely done at our Warrick facility, we expect our 2025 capital expenditures to be closer to our expected run rate at approximately [$120 million]. including some remaining costs for the 4 coating line project at Warrick and our Phase 7 expansion at Trentwood. As a result, we currently estimate greater than $100 million of free cash flow for the full year 2025 which we define as cash flow from operations less capital expenditures, driven by the lower capital expenditures and reduced working capital demands across the portfolio.

轉向資本配置。我們 2024 年全年資本支出為 1.81 億美元。由於第四條塗層生產線的投資工作基本上在我們沃里克工廠完成，我們預計 2025 年的資本支出將更接近預期的運行率，約為 [1.2 億美元]。包括沃里克4條塗裝線工程和特倫特伍德第7期擴建工程的一些剩餘成本。因此，我們目前估計 2025 年全年的自由現金流將超過 1 億美元，我們將其定義為經營活動產生的現金流減去資本支出，這得益於整個投資組合的資本支出降低和營運資本需求減少。

Additionally, in 2024, we returned approximately $51 million to our shareholders through dividend payments, marking our 18th consecutive year of dividend payments to our shareholders. On January 14, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per common share, which underscores the continuing confidence our board and management team have in our long-term strategy to improve our profitability and increase stockholder value. Finally, we have begun to assess alternative inventory accounting methods other than LIFO. We expect to provide an update on the assessment prior to the release of our first quarter 2025 results.

此外，2024 年，我們透過股息支付向股東返還了約 5,100 萬美元，這是我們連續第 18 年向股東支付股息。1 月 14 日，我們宣布董事會宣布每股普通股 0.77 美元的季度股息，這凸顯了董事會和管理團隊對我們提高盈利能力和增加股東價值的長期策略的持續信心。最後，我們開始評估除後進先出法之外的其他替代庫存會計方法。我們預計將在發布 2025 年第一季業績之前提供評估更新。

And now I'll turn the call back over to Keith to discuss our 2025 outlook. Keith?

現在我將把電話轉回給 Keith，討論我們的 2025 年展望。基思？

Thanks, Neal. We share our outlook for 2025 and I'd like to step back and talk for a moment about the business approach that has served us well for decades and how it's setting us up for success in the future.

謝謝，尼爾。我們分享了對 2025 年的展望，我想回顧一下幾十年來為我們帶來良好服務的業務方法，以及它如何為我們未來的成功奠定基礎。

First, we are focused on niche areas in our served markets that have very demanding applications and present significant areas to entry. In those areas, we have built strong competitive positions through product differentiation and established long-standing relationships with blue-chip customers in those markets. In addition to ensuring quality, on-time delivery performance and continued strong customer satisfaction levels, maintaining our long-term customer relationships comes down to a strong understanding of our customers' evolving needs.

首先，我們專注於我們所服務市場中的利基領域，這些領域具有非常苛刻的應用並且是重要的進入領域。在這些領域，我們透過產品差異化建立了強大的競爭地位，並與這些市場的藍籌客戶建立了長期的合作關係。除了確保品質、準時交貨和持續保持較高的客戶滿意度之外，維持長期的客戶關係還取決於對客戶不斷變化的需求的深刻理解。

The mutual commitments we have made with our customers helped to prioritize our business decisions. As demand for our products grows, our customers expect us to invest for additional capacities to meet their needs and, in turn, commit to us as a key long-term strategic supplier. These commitments support the investments we are continuing to make such as upgrading our Warrick rolling mill to produce a greater mix of coated products to meet the needs of our packaging customers and expanding capacity at our Trentwood rolling mill, which produces high value-added flat-rolled products for aerospace, high strength and general engineering applications. These are not small investments. So it has been crucial that we have a very good understanding of our customers' needs act with mutually beneficial long-term agreements to secure the investments and ensure we deliver solid returns to our shareholders.

我們與客戶所做的相互承諾幫助我們確定業務決策的優先順序。隨著我們產品的需求不斷增長，我們的客戶期望我們投資增加產能以滿足他們的需求，進而將我們作為主要的長期策略供應商。這些承諾支持了我們持續的投資，例如昇級我們的沃里克軋機廠，以生產更多種類的塗層產品，滿足我們包裝客戶的需求，並擴大我們特倫特伍德軋機廠的產能，該軋機廠為航空航天、高強度和一般工程應用生產高附加價值的平軋產品。這些都不是小投資。因此，我們必須充分了解客戶的需求，並簽訂互惠互利的長期協議，以確保投資安全並為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

Now let me explain how our business approach has influenced our investment decisions for 2025 and provide our outlook by end market application and on a consolidated basis. Starting on Slide 13, with Aero and high strength. As I have mentioned in prior calls, commercial aircraft fundamentals remain very strong. Airline passenger miles and freight traffic continue to increase, driving the demand for new aircraft. Although our large airframe customers continue to work through supply chain challenges and recover from quality and labor issues that impacted deliveries in 2024, aircraft shipments are expected to increase in the high single digits year-over-year in 2025.

現在，讓我解釋一下我們的商業方法如何影響我們對 2025 年的投資決策，並從終端市場應用和合併基礎上提供我們的展望。從幻燈片 13 開始，具有 Aero 和高強度。正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的，商用飛機的基本面仍然非常強勁。航空客運里程和貨運量持續增加，推動了對新飛機的需求。儘管我們的大型機身客戶繼續努力克服供應鏈挑戰，並從影響 2024 年交付的品質和勞動力問題中恢復過來，但預計 2025 年飛機出貨量將同比增長高個位數。

These OEMs hold years of aircraft backlog. In fact, the backlog is as strong as it's ever been with a high book-to-bill ratio continuing into 2025. At Kaiser, we're coming off a near record year for conversion revenue in aerospace and high strength. Even though we have been operating in a choppy environment, which has resulted in higher inventories at the OEMs.

這些原始設備製造商擁有多年的飛機訂單積壓。事實上，積壓訂單量一直保持強勁，較高的訂單出貨比將持續到 2025 年。在凱撒，我們航空航太和高強度領域的轉換收入剛創下歷史新高。儘管我們一直在動盪的環境中運營，但這也導致原始設備製造商的庫存增加。

Despite strong demand, those inventories need to work through and will have a short-term impact on our shipments this year. So while our offerings in business jet, defense and space remains steady, we expect large commercial aircraft OEMs will enter a temporary phase of destocking that will lead to declines in our 2025 shipments and conversion revenue by approximately 5% to 7% year-over-year.

儘管需求強勁，但這些庫存需要消化，並將對我們今年的出貨量產生短期影響。因此，雖然我們在公務機、國防和太空領域的產品供應保持穩定，但我們預計大型商用飛機原始設備製造商將進入暫時的去庫存階段，這將導致我們的 2025 年出貨量和轉換收入同比下降約 5% 至 7%。

Looking further out, we expect large commercial aircraft production rates to increase materially in 2026. This should align well with the additional 5% to 6% increase in capacity, we expect to gain from our Phase 7 expansion at our Trentwood rolling mill One of the very few rolling mills in the world qualified to supply heat-treated plate products for aerospace and certain general engineering applications. This investment is the start of our next major expansion at this facility and we are excited about the value creation potential it offers to our shareholders. This expansion is expected to be completed in the second half of 2025. Overall, the aerospace and high strict market will continue to provide a strong multiyear tailwind to our business.

放眼未來，我們預計 2026 年大型商用飛機的生產力將大幅提升。這應該與我們預計從特倫特伍德軋機廠第 7 期擴建中獲得的額外 5% 至 6% 的產能增長相一致，特倫特伍德軋機廠是世界上極少數有資格為航空航天和某些通用工程應用供應熱處理板材產品的軋機廠之一。這項投資是我們對該工廠進行下一次大規模擴建的開始，我們對它為股東帶來的價值創造潛力感到非常興奮。此次擴建工程預計將於 2025 年下半年完成。總體而言，航空航太和高嚴格市場將繼續為我們的業務提供強勁的多年順風。

Let's move on to Packaging on Slide 14. Members of our audience who have followed the story closely over the last several years since we reentered the packaging market, are aware of the challenges we have faced along the way towards making our Warrick facility a major contributor to our business. I am proud of the tremendous work that has gotten us to where we are today and which will lead to a material improvement in our performance in 2025 and beyond.

我們繼續討論幻燈片 14 上的「包裝」。自從我們重新進入包裝市場以來，過去幾年一直密切關注著我們的故事的觀眾都知道，在使沃里克工廠成為我們業務的主要貢獻者的過程中，我們面臨的挑戰。我為我們今天所取得的巨大成就感到自豪，這些努力將使我們在 2025 年及以後的業績有實質性的提升。

Our Warrick facility is one of a very select few domestic major aluminum rolling mills dedicated to the North American packaging industry. It is uniquely positioned as a long-term supplier of coated sheeted products into various beverage and food packaging applications, and we are investing to meet the increasing demand for these products. We are following the same playbook we have successfully executed in our other end market applications, where we focus on a very demanding niche portion of the market, deliver industry-leading products and services and provide customers with a highly differentiated offering, all of which allow us to establish a strong market position and generate active returns for our investors.

我們的沃里克工廠是國內為數不多的幾家專門服務於北美包裝行業的大型鋁軋機廠之一。它作為各種飲料和食品包裝應用的塗層片材產品的長期供應商，具有獨特的優勢，我們正在進行投資以滿足對這些產品日益增長的需求。我們遵循在其他終端市場應用中成功執行的相同策略，即專注於市場上非常苛刻的細分市場，提供行業領先的產品和服務，並為客戶提供高度差異化的產品，所有這些都使我們能夠建立強大的市場地位並為我們的投資者創造積極的回報。

The investments we have made in Warrick are poised to transform our packaging business and increase its margin profile. Our new roll code line investment is in its final stages, both in terms of capital expenditures as well as its readiness to deliver additional coated prop. As we previously stated, the fourth roll coat line is a highly strategic project that we expect to convert approximately 25% of our existing capacity to higher-margin value-added coated products. We are presently commissioning the new roll coat line. and we'll begin customer qualifications shortly thereafter.

我們對 Warrick 的投資有望改變我們的包裝業務並提高其利潤率。我們對新卷碼線的投資已進入最後階段，包括資本支出以及交付額外塗層道具的準備。正如我們之前所說，第四條卷塗生產線是一個高度戰略性的項目，我們預計將把現有產能的約25％轉換為利潤率更高的增值塗層產品。我們目前正在調試新的捲塗生產線。隨後我們將很快開始客戶資格審查。

We expect -- begin shipping coated products from this line in the second quarter of this year with full production ramping through the remainder of the year. We're also in the final stages of contract negotiations with customers for the remainder of the coating capacity this investment will generate. And we now expect those multiyear agreements to be in place by the end of the first quarter this year.

我們預計，該生產線將於今年第二季開始出貨塗層產品，並在今年剩餘時間內全面實現生產。我們也正與客戶就這項投資將產生的剩餘塗層產能進行合約談判，目前合約談判已進入最後階段。我們預計這些多年協議將在今年第一季末實施。

In anticipation of the completion of this project in late 2024, we began to shift product availability towards a more coated centric mix. This shift will result in total first half shipments being reduced temporarily as qualifications are completed and we begin shipments from the new line to customers. We expect shipments in the resulting higher value mix to ramp slowly in the second quarter and then reach higher run rates in the second half of the year. As such, the benefit of our investment at work will become more apparent in the second half of the year.

為了預期該項目將於 2024 年底完工，我們開始將產品供應轉向以塗層為中心的混合。由於資格審查已完成並且我們開始透過新生產線向客戶發貨，這一轉變將導致上半年總出貨量暫時減少。我們預計，由此產生的高價值產品組合的出貨量將在第二季緩慢上升，然後在下半年達到更高的運行率。這樣，我們在工作上投資的效益將在下半年更加明顯。

To add context to that comment, for the full year, we expect shipments and packaging to be up 3% to 5% year-over-year and expect conversion revenue to increase by 20% to 25% in 2025, with our numbers strongly skewed to the second half. As I have said before, we expect our investment in Warrick to yield 300 to 400 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion to our consolidated business at full run rate. While we won't guide quarter-to-quarter, we expect to see the full benefit run rate in the fourth quarter of this year, and we believe it to be sustainable.

為了補充該評論的背景，我們預計全年出貨量和包裝量將年增 3% 至 5%，並預計 2025 年轉換收入將成長 20% 至 25%，我們的數字嚴重偏向下半年。正如我之前所說，我們預計對 Warrick 的投資將使我們的合併業務在滿載運轉的情況下實現 300 到 400 個基點的 EBITDA 利潤率擴大。雖然我們不會給出季度指引，但我們預計今年第四季將實現全部收益運行率，而且我們相信這將是可持續的。

We expect packaging to be a meaningful driver of our long-term performance. The dynamics in the industry are extremely compelling. There is a solid long-term demand in both food and beverage packaging, a fair portion of which is being satisfied currently by imports. North American production is not currently sufficient to meet future demand. let alone current demand, particularly since some capacity has been reallocated towards other indices, including automotive and industrial.

我們希望包裝能成為我們長期業績的重要推手。該行業的動態極其引人注目。食品和飲料包裝有著長期的旺盛需求，其中相當一部分目前依賴進口來滿足。北美的產量目前不足以滿足未來的需求。更不用說當前的需求，特別是因為一些產能已經重新分配給其他指數，包括汽車和工業。

And we, of course, occupy a unique space in the market with our sole focus on packaging at our Warrick facility, with strong secular growth expected in the 3% to 5% range annually, coupled with our long-standing customer relationships with multiyear contracts and a focus on higher-margin value-added coated products, we are highly optimistic about our ability to drive strong results in our packaging end market applications.

當然，我們在市場上佔據獨特的地位，我們專注於沃里克工廠的包裝業務，預計每年的長期增長率將在 3% 到 5% 之間，再加上我們與客戶建立了長期的多年期合約關係，以及對利潤率更高的增值塗層產品的關注，我們對在包裝終端市場應用領域取得強勁業績的能力非常樂觀。

Turning to general engineering on Slide 15. Destocking appears to be over in long products. In fact, service center inventories for a certain of our long products are at lows not seen in over a decade. Shipments to start the year are encouraging and the ISM manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index moved into expansion territory in January for the first time since October of 2022 after 26 consecutive months of contraction.

前往投影片 15 上的一般工程。長材去庫存化似乎已經結束。事實上，我們某些長材產品的服務中心庫存處於十多年來的最低水準。今年年初的出貨量令人鼓舞，ISM 製造業採購經理人指數在連續 26 個月收縮後，於 1 月自 2022 年 10 月以來首次進入擴張區域。

Plate product inventories remain elevated, but we expect these will even out by midyear. Our initial outlook for 2025 is for volumes and conversion revenue to be up 5% to 10% year-over-year. As noted, we expect Phase 7 to expand our capacity at Trentwood rolling mill and enable us to continue to meet the growing needs of our customers for general engineering heat-treated plate.

板材產品庫存仍然較高，但我們預計到年中庫存將會趨於平穩。我們對 2025 年的初步預測是銷售和轉換收入將年增 5% 至 10%。如上所述，我們預計第 7 階段將擴大特倫特伍德軋機的產能，並使我們能夠繼續滿足客戶對通用工程熱處理板日益增長的需求。

Finally, turning to automotive on Slide 16. North American industry production is expected to be flat to down modestly in 2025 compared with last year. While we have some exposure to a softer demand environment, we do have favorable resets on various contracts in 2025. Also, although our shipments are likely to follow market production rates, we are skewed towards the SUV and light truck segment, which should continue to outperform the general overall market. Again, we are focused on niche product categories with few competitors and a solid mix of higher value-added products.

最後，轉向幻燈片 16 上的汽車部分。預計2025年北美工業產量將與去年相比持平或略有下降。雖然我們在一定程度上面臨需求疲軟的環境，但我們在 2025 年對各種合約確實進行了有利的重置。此外，雖然我們的出貨量可能跟隨市場生產力，但我們偏向 SUV 和輕型卡車領域，這兩個領域的表現應該會繼續優於整體市場。再次強調，我們專注於競爭對手較少的利基產品類別和高附加價值產品的穩定組合。

Due to these factors, we expect conversion revenue to be up 3% to 5% on 5% to 7% lower shipments over 2024, consistent with expected industry production.

由於這些因素，我們預計 2024 年出貨量將下降 5% 至 7%，但轉換收入將增加 3% 至 5%，與預期的行業產量一致。

Turning to our summary outlook for 2025 on Slide 17. We expect our full year consolidated conversion revenue to increase 5% to 10% and EBITDA margin to be up 50 to 100 basis points year-over-year. In line with the expected ramp of our new investments, we anticipate that we will see meaningful EBITDA and EBITDA margin uplift in the second half of the year with around 60% of full year EBITDA expected to come in, in the second half prior to any changes we may make on accounting inventory valuations.

請看第 17 張投影片上的 2025 年總結展望。我們預計全年綜合轉換收入將年增 5% 至 10%，EBITDA 利潤率將年增 50 至 100 個基點。隨著我們新投資的預期成長，我們預計今年下半年 EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率將有顯著提升，預計全年 EBITDA 的 60% 左右將在下半年實現，這發生在我們對會計存貨估價做出任何調整之前。

Our assumptions include the market conditions and outlook described, the timing of our investments being brought online and current market considerations on pricing and availability of scrap. Notably, our assumptions do not include potential impacts from recently announced tariffs, which we are evaluating across all of our businesses. Our balance sheet will also continue to strengthen as we move through the year, as will our steady pace of deleveraging and and our shareholders will reap the additional benefits from the largest capital investment cycle in Kaiser's recent history.

我們的假設包括所描述的市場條件和前景、我們投資上線的時機以及當前市場對廢料定價和供應的考慮。值得注意的是，我們的假設不包括最近宣布的關稅帶來的潛在影響，我們正在對所有業務進行評估。隨著時間的推移，我們的資產負債表也將繼續增強，我們的去槓桿步伐也將穩步推進，我們的股東也將從凱撒近期歷史上最大的資本投資週期中獲得額外收益。

Finally, I'm pleased to announce that we reached early agreement with our United Steelworkers represented employees at our newer card alloy plant and Trentwood rolling mill, taking us to the end of the decade. Our existing contract expires in September. But as we have done many times in the past, our teams came together early on and worked on a mutually beneficial contract to ensure uninterrupted service to our customers. I'm extremely proud of the relationship we share with United Steelworkers and I want to thank everyone involved on another successful outcome for our employees, our company and for our customers.

最後，我很高興地宣布，我們與美國鋼鐵工人聯合會代表的新卡合金廠和特倫特伍德軋機廠的員工達成了早期協議，這將使我們走到這個十年的盡頭。我們現有的合約將於九月到期。但正如我們過去多次做過的那樣，我們的團隊很早就聚集在一起，制定了一份互惠互利的合同，以確保為我們的客戶提供不間斷的服務。我對我們與美國鋼鐵工人聯合會之間的關係感到非常自豪，我要感謝所有參與其中的人，為我們的員工、我們的公司和我們的客戶取得了又一次成功的成果。

In summary, we expect to exit 2025 with strong tailwinds resulting from our strategic investments and strong market positions. As I said on our prior call, we expect 2025 to be a transformational year for the company, and that expectation remains unchanged. I look forward to sharing our continued progress throughout the year.

總而言之，我們預計，憑藉戰略投資和強大的市場地位，我們將在 2025 年迎來強勁發展勢頭。正如我在先前的電話會議上所說，我們預計 2025 年將成為公司的轉型之年，這項預期保持不變。我期待分享我們全年不斷取得的進展。

With that, I'll now open the call to any questions you may have. Operator?

現在，我將開始回答大家可能提出的任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

Within the consolidated 2025 EBITDA guide, you have some key assumptions, you say recovery in scrap availability and potential tariff. You just spoke to that none of these include any tariff update, but what are you assuming in terms of scrap spreads, the impact to EBITDA, I guess, particularly probably on packaging. But what are your assumptions at this stage? Is there a way to quantify the current impact from the tightness in scrap spreads?

在 2025 年合併 EBITDA 指南中，您有一些關鍵假設，例如廢料供應和潛在關稅的恢復。您剛才說這些都不包括任何關稅更新，但您對廢料價差、對 EBITDA 的影響有何假設，我想這很可能會對包裝產生影響。但現階段您的假設是什麼？有沒有辦法量化目前廢料價差緊張帶來的影響？

Well, what we use, Bill, we basically used how we ended up last year. So we had talked about last year that the efforts we had focused on for improving spreads for us on EBITDA and EBITDA margin expansion, we felt that our position was going to bring 150 to 200 basis points of improvement. And as we spoke to the fourth quarter -- or excuse me, the third quarter of last year, we said we're at the lower end of that range. And that's pretty much what we've modeled for the remainder of 2025. If scrap improve, the spreads improve, we'll have a tailwind from that.

嗯，比爾，我們所採用的方法基本上就是去年的結果。因此，我們去年談到，我們致力於改善 EBITDA 利差和 EBITDA 利潤率擴張，我們認為我們的立場將帶來 150 到 200 個基點的改善。當我們談到第四季度——對不起，是去年第三季時，我們說我們處於該範圍的低端。這就是我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的預測。如果廢料狀況改善，價差改善，我們就會從中受益。

But we're certainly not rolling in that there's going to be a big uplift at this point.

但我們肯定不會認為現在會出現巨大的提升。

And if you take a look at the tariff component, Bill, while we didn't include any of that, we're still assessing through all of our businesses, what currently has been laid out. And I could say what we've seen from the -- what's been delivered so far on the announcements, the 232 exemption changes and then the February 1 announcement that came out. We really think that this is a neutral to a positive thing for Kaiser Aluminum overall. And we may have some areas that we need to refocus on some of our supplying [bill] or so forth, but something we can meaningfully take care of.

比爾，如果你看一下關稅部分，雖然我們沒有包括任何內容，但我們仍在評估我們所有的業務，評估目前的安排。我可以說一下我們從目前公佈的公告中看到的情況，包括 232 項豁免變更以及 2 月 1 日發布的公告。我們確實認為，這對凱撒鋁業公司來說總體來說是一件中性到積極的事情。我們可能需要重新關註一些供應（法案）等方面的領域，但有些事情我們可以有效地處理。

On the positive side, we've seen some good pricing position as far as we were having, we were facing some headwinds with imports. I think that's immediately slowed that down, and so that's a positive for us. And then on the other side of it, we're beginning to see customers talk about more domestic shipments. So that always blends well for Kaiser Aluminum moving forward. The one area that we remain waiting to see what takes place is on these reciprocal tariff impacts which could play out.

從積極的一面來看，我們看到了一些良好的定價地位，但我們在進口方面面臨一些阻力。我認為這立即減緩了這一速度，這對我們來說是積極的。另一方面，我們開始看到客戶談論更多的國內貨運量。因此，這對凱撒鋁業公司未來的發展來說始終是一個好的開始。我們仍在等待觀察的一個領域是這些可能產生的相互關稅影響。

But again, our overall assessment at this time is that it's a neutral to a positive for Kaiser.

但是，我們目前的整體評估對凱撒來說持中性到積極的態度。

Okay. And maybe trying to double click or get a little bit more color on the end markets. Maybe first on Aerospace, recognizing that you still kind of an inventory traction environment. But what are you hearing from your customers in terms of inventory in the system? When do you expect buyers move off the sidelines?

好的。或許可以嘗試雙擊或在終端市場上獲得更多色彩。也許首先在航空航太領域，認識到你仍然處於一種庫存牽引環境。但是您從客戶那裡聽到了有關係統庫存方面的什麼消息？您預計買家何時會退出市場？

And I guess as we think about progressing through the year, do you see the potential for the year-on-year shipment and conversion revenue declines to abate or maybe even turn to positive growth by year-end? Or is that just too early to tell?

我想，當我們思考這一年的進展時，您是否認為同比出貨量和轉換收入的下降趨勢有可能會減弱，甚至在年底前轉為正增長？或者說現在說這個還太早？

Well, we took a hard look at this last year a couple of times, Bill, if you recall, we said in June and then again in the September call that we felt there was going to be some depression on shipments and inventory concerns. And then, of course, we had some labor issues coming in. When you look at our fourth quarter results, we actually did very well. And I really pushed that to the strength of our contracts that we have in place. And I'm happy to communicate the strength of those contracts will continue into 2025.

嗯，比爾，如果你還記得的話，我們去年認真研究過這個問題幾次，我們在六月和九月的電話會議上都說過，我們覺得出貨量和庫存問題會受到一定程度的抑制。當然，我們又遇到了一些勞工問題。當你查看我們第四季度的業績時，你會發現我們實際上做得非常好。我確實將這一點發揮到了我們現有合約的效力上。我很高興地告訴大家，這些合約的有效期將持續到 2025 年。

Now the second part of your question, what do we think, how does the year look? I think the build rates are going to continue to increase with the large OEM air framers, Bill. And I think as those production rates will increase throughout the year, I think that, that destocking component or that demand could pick up noticeably, especially in the second half of the year.

現在問你問題的第二部分，我們認為今年的前景如何？比爾，我認為隨著大型 OEM 飛機製造商的發展，製造率將會持續增加。我認為，隨著全年生產力的提高，去庫存部分或需求可能會明顯回升，尤其是今年下半年。

We talked in our comments about general engineering. And we talked about this last year. We think that the semiconductor stands a good chance of getting back some strength in the second half of the year. And then along with really low inventory levels at our service centers, any uptick in demand is going to drive demand for us. Now the important factor that we're looking at is that we're beginning the working in that Phase 7, that 5% to 6% increase that's coming in.

我們在評論中討論了一般工程。我們去年就討論過這個問題。我們認為半導體很有可能在今年下半年恢復成長。由於我們服務中心的庫存水準非常低，任何需求的上升都會推動我們的需求。現在，我們正在考慮的重要因素是，我們正在開始第 7 階段的工作，即將實現 5% 到 6% 的增幅。

And quite frankly, I think we're going to get very lucky here in that the demand should allow us to put that in with minimal impact to any of our customer shipments. And so we're going to probably get a good timing on this investment. We expect to be done probably in the middle of the second half of the year, and then we'll be ideally positioned to take advantage of any return on demand that we expect to see in the second half of the year.

坦白說，我認為我們非常幸運，因為需求允許我們以對任何客戶出貨量影響最小的方式投入生產。因此我們可能會找到這項投資的好時機。我們預計這項工作大概會在下半年中期完成，然後我們將處於理想的位置，以利用我們預計在下半年看到的任何需求回報。

Yes. And then you mentioned general shipment -- here, but maybe shifting to packaging. First, the fourth quarter sort of pricing was down. Was that a mix impact? And then I guess maybe can you remind us of how many remaining legacy packaging contracts are expected to be renewed and what this could -- what kind of impact you could have on pricing, maybe absent of tariffs that could even be a further positive tailwind?

是的。然後您提到了一般運輸——但也許轉向包裝。首先，第四季的價格有所下降。這是混合影響嗎？然後我想您能否提醒我們預計有多少剩餘的傳統包裝合約將得到續簽，以及這會對定價產生什麼樣的影響，也許沒有關稅甚至可能帶來進一步的積極推動力？

Yes. And again, Bill, good point on that. Nothing on tariffs has rolled into what our outlay of what our expectations will be on margin expansion as we move to higher value-added products. But you could see in that we led that shipments will be up only 3% to 5% and by the way, you are correct. It was just mix in the fourth quarter.

是的。再說一次，比爾，你的觀點很好。隨著我們轉向更高附加價值的產品，關稅不會影響我們對利潤率擴張的預期。但您可以看到，我們的預測是出貨量只會增加 3% 到 5%，順便說一句，您是對的。第四季的情況只是混合的。

We're seeing really strong demand. I have to pay it that way. We're very anxious to get the new capacity on because our customers are screaming for more metal. And we're going to be in a great position to start delivering that in the second quarter sometime. But this change to higher value-added revenue is indicative of what we're saying.

我們看到了非常強勁的需求。我必須以那種方式付款。我們非常渴望獲得新的產能，因為我們的客戶迫切需要更多的金屬。我們將在第二季的某個時候開始實現這一目標。但這種向更高附加價值收入的轉變表明了我們的說法。

So the second half of the year will begin to move up to full run rates, and we're talking about up to a 25% improvement on our conversion revenue, and so that's just indicative on very few more or -- pounds shipped. So that's just a little insight as to come with what we think with this vision. And I reflect back to that 300 to 400 basis points overall to the consolidated business. When we get this thing at full run rate, it will begin in the second half of this year, but purely clearly, 2026, we'll be able to really let this thing go.

因此，今年下半年將開始升至滿載運行，我們談論的是轉換收入將提高 25%，這僅表明運輸量將增加很少或很少。這只是我們對這願景的一些見解。我回想一下，合併業務整體成長了 300 到 400 個基點。當我們讓這個東西全速運轉時，它將在今年下半年開始，但很明顯，2026 年，我們才能真正讓它運轉。

Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

坦納斯（Timna Tanners），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

I wanted to ask a few more just high level, we've seen the Midwest premium doubled since last year. So any timing issues with passing that through to customers verifications for working capital?

我想再問幾個高層的問題，我們發現中西部地區的保費自去年以來翻了一番。那麼，將其傳遞給客戶以獲得營運資金驗證是否存在時間問題？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Our business model has really been set up to pass these through almost immediately. We have very few segments in our businesses where there's a lag effect. And if those exist, they are no more than 20 or 30 days.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我們的商業模式確實已經建立，幾乎可以立即實現這些目標。我們的業務中很少有存在滯後效應的部分。如果存在的話，也不會超過 20 或 30 天。

But the majority of our business are set up to pass through metal right away. So you shouldn't see any drag on our business as -- ramps. And a good way to go back and look at how that reacted, go back and look at our data when metal was up around $2 a pound. And you can see that our spreads and margins maintain themselves with that period on the way up and on the way down. So I think we're pretty well insulated on that.

但我們的大部分業務都是立即透過金屬進行的。因此，您不應該看到我們的業務受到任何拖累。回顧並觀察其反應的一個好方法是回顧並觀察金屬價格上漲約 2 美元/磅時的數據。您可以看到，我們的利差和利潤率在上升和下降過程中始終保持不變。所以我認為我們在這方面已經做得相當好了。

Now one thing we intend to do this year, Neal mentioned about the greater than $100 million of free cash flow we expect for the year. We're obviously going to be very focused on discipline the use of working capital, okay? And then again, we're past that large timing of that basically 3 years in a row where we would had very high spending to fit these investments ready to start delivering revenue. So that's going to be completed this year. And so all of that combining together is going to make a very positive effect on our cash generation and in our balance sheet.

現在我們今年打算做一件事，尼爾提到我們預計今年的自由現金流將超過 1 億美元。我們顯然會非常注重營運資金使用的規範，好嗎？而且，我們已經過了基本上連續 3 年投入大量資金進行這些投資並開始產生收入的時期。所以這將在今年完成。所有這些結合在一起將對我們的現金創造和資產負債表產生非常積極的影響。

Okay. I was wondering why you were talking about converting your inventory methodology. So I wondered if that was because of a working capital issue. Is there something that we should think about for modeling purposes? Or is that -- meant?

好的。我想知道您為什麼要談論轉換庫存方法。所以我想知道這是否是因為營運資金問題。為了建模目的我們是否應該考慮一些事情？或者那是——意思？

Well, I think, Timna, if you recall, all last year, we had to evoke the LIFO impact at least 2 or 3 times. And with that change that took place, we just -- we're taking a chance to reevaluate how we're looking at, and you can look at how are we going to evaluate. We're going to look at FIFO, we're going to look at average cost metal, and we're going to evaluate that against LIFO. And we're going to say what best fits our business moving forward. And so that we don't all have to sit there and guess what that accounting scenario that we're in is going to impact earnings.

嗯，我想，蒂姆娜，如果你還記得的話，去年全年，我們不得不至少 2 到 3 次喚起後進先出法的影響。隨著這一變化的發生，我們只是——我們正在抓住機會重新評估我們的看法，你可以看看我們將如何評估。我們將研究先進先出法 (FIFO)，我們將研究平均金屬成本，我們將根據後進先出法 (LIFO) 對其進行評估。我們將說什麼最適合我們未來的業務。這樣我們就不必坐在那裡猜測我們所處的會計情境會對收益產生什麼影響。

So we're going to go with the one that we think best with our business. And I think you'll hear more out of us on that issue very soon.

因此，我們將選擇我們認為最適合我們業務的方案。我想您很快就會聽到我們對這一問題的更多看法。

Okay. Great. And I think you've been really clear that there's a lot of factors that will drive a better second half than first half. I'm just wondering if you want to put a finer point on it, like percentage of EBITDA that might be more second half than first half because it is a quite a complement factor between the aerospace cycle that we know of between the ramp-up at Warrick. I think I'm missing something but there are several factors.

好的。偉大的。我想你已經非常清楚，有很多因素將推動下半年的表現優於上半年。我只是想知道您是否想對此進行更細緻的說明，例如 EBITDA 百分比可能在下半年比上半年更高，因為這是我們所知的 Warrick 產能提升與航空航天週期之間的一個相當互補的因素。我想我忽略了一些東西，但有幾個因素。

I'm just wondering, is there any way that you can put a finer point on it for us?

我只是想知道，您能為我們更詳細地解釋一下嗎？

Yes. In the comments, Timna, and I was talking so fast and so much that you may have missed it, but what we basically said, we expect of the total EBITDA for the year to generate approximately 60% of that in the second half. And that's without any of those accounting changes that we make evoke and so forth. So you could probably look at that perspective of 40%, 60% for the year.

是的。在評論中，Timna 和我說得太快太長了，你可能錯過了，但我們基本上是說，我們預計今年的總 EBITDA 將在下半年產生約 60%。這還沒有包括我們所做的任何會計變更等等。因此，您可能可以從今年 40% 到 60% 的角度來看待這個問題。

I did miss that. Okay. So one more for me, if I could. The NOLs are still supporting a pretty small -- cash tax position and I was wondering, since we haven't seen cadence -- what that might look like if this will be the last year of that benefit? And then similarly, CapEx in 2025, I think you still have some remaining, of course, when the investments, but what should we think about that falling off into 2026?

我的確很懷念那件事。好的。如果可以的話，我再說一次。淨營運收入仍然支撐著相當小的現金稅收狀況，而且由於我們還沒有看到節奏，我想知道，如果這是該福利的最後一年，情況會是什麼樣子？同樣，我認為到 2025 年，資本支出當然還會有一些剩餘，但我們該如何看待 2026 年資本支出的下降呢？

Or are there still decent investments you're pursuing?

或者您仍在進行一些不錯的投資？

Yes. So I'll handle the CapEx, and then Neal can talk about the NOLs. Yes. Basically, what we're stating is that we'll be around that $125 million CapEx for 2025. We sort of alluded to that last year.

是的。因此我將處理資本支出，然後尼爾可以談論淨營運成本。是的。基本上，我們的預期是，2025 年的資本支出將達到 1.25 億美元左右。我們去年曾經提到過這一點。

We said $100 million to $125 million, but the $125 million is the general range we're looking at currently, and that is inclusive of finalizing the investment on the roll code line and the Phase 7 expansion at Trentwood. And I'll turn the NOLs over to Neal.

我們說的是 1 億美元到 1.25 億美元，但 1.25 億美元是我們目前正在考慮的大致範圍，其中包括最終確定卷碼線和特倫特伍德第 7 階段擴建的投資。我將把 NOL 移交給尼爾 (Neal)。

In regard to back -- NOLs, we basically, as of the end of 2024, we have now utilized our NOLs. And as I noted in my comments, we expect our cash tax payments in 2025, which will also cover federal, state and foreign Texas will be in that $5 million to $7 million range in '25, which is effectively the cash tax payments for '24 taxes.

關於淨營運虧損，基本上，截至 2024 年底，我們已經使用了淨營運虧損。正如我在評論中提到的，我們預計 2025 年的現金稅款（涵蓋聯邦、州和外國）在 '25 年將達到 500 萬至 700 萬美元，這實際上是 '24 年稅收的現金稅款。

I would like to turn the floor over to Keith Harvey for closing remarks.

我想請基思·哈維作最後發言。

Okay. Well, thank you for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in Kaiser Aluminum. We're running forward to an exciting year as we bring these new investments online and position the company for strong growth in 2025 and the years ahead. I look forward to speaking with you again in April when we discuss our first quarter results. I hope you have a good rest of your day.

好的。好吧，感謝您今天加入我們，也感謝您對凱撒鋁業的關注。我們期待著令人興奮的一年，因為我們將這些新的投資投入線上，並為公司在 2025 年及未來幾年的強勁成長做好準備。我期待四月份我們再次討論第一季業績時與您交談。祝您今天剩餘的時間過得愉快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。