Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Kaiser Aluminum Corporation's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

問候並歡迎參加凱撒鋁業公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kim Orlando with ADDO Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹主持人、來自 ADDO 投資者關係部門的 Kim Orlando。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Kaiser Aluminum's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. If you have not seen a copy of our earnings release, please visit the Investor Relations page of our website at kaiseraluminum.com. We have also posted a PDF version of the slide presentation for this call.

謝謝。大家好，歡迎參加凱撒鋁業 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。如果您尚未看到我們的收益報告，請造訪我們網站 kaiseraluminum.com 的投資者關係頁面。我們也發布了本次電話會議投影片的 PDF 版本。

Joining me on the call today are Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Keith Harvey; and Executive Vice President; and Chief Financial Officer, Neal West.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Keith Harvey，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Neal West。

Before we begin, I'd like to refer you to the first four slides of our presentation and remind you that the statements made by management and the information contained in this presentation that constitute forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations.

在我們開始之前，我想請您看一下我們簡報的前四張投影片，並提醒您，管理層所做的陳述和本簡報中包含的構成前瞻性陳述的資訊均基於管理層當前的預期。

For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from the forward-looking statement, please refer to the company's earnings release and report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the full year ended December 31, 2024. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements to conform the statement to actual results or changes in the company's expectations.

有關可能導致結果與前瞻性聲明有重大差異的具體風險因素的摘要，請參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和報告，包括本公司截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的全年 10-K 表年度報告。本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述以使該陳述符合實際結果或公司預期變化的義務。

In addition, we have included non-GAAP financial information in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release and in the appendix of the presentation. Reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP financial measures are not provided because certain items required for such reconciliations are outside of our control and or cannot be reasonably predicted or provided without unreasonable effort.

此外，我們在討論中也納入了非公認會計準則財務資訊。與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳包含在收益報告和簡報的附錄中。未提供某些前瞻性非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，因為此類對賬所需的某些項目超出了我們的控制範圍，或者無法合理預測，也無法在不付出不合理努力的情況下提供。

Any reference to EBITDA in our discussion today means adjusted EBITDA, which excludes non-run rate items for which we have provided reconciliations in the appendix.

我們今天的討論中提到的任何 EBITDA 都是指調整後的 EBITDA，它不包括我們在附錄中提供對帳的非運行率項目。

Further, slide 5 contains definitions of terms and measures that we will be commonly used throughout today's presentation. At the conclusion of the company's presentation, we will open the call for questions.

此外，投影片 5 包含我們在今天的簡報中常用的術語和措施的定義。公司演示結束後，我們將開始提問。

I would now like to turn the call over to Keith Harvey. Keith?

現在我想把電話轉給基斯·哈維。基思？

Thanks, Kim, and thank you all for joining us today. Turning to slide 7 for our second-quarter update.

謝謝，金，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。翻到投影片 7 查看我們的第二季更新。

I'm pleased to report that Kaiser delivered second-quarter results that exceeded our expectations, leading us to increase our full-year EBITDA outlook. While favorable metal pricing provided a positive tailwind, our performance reflects deeper strength in our underlying business fundamentals, which continue to improve across the board.

我很高興地報告，凱撒第二季的業績超出了我們的預期，這讓我們提高了全年 EBITDA 預期。雖然有利的金屬價格提供了積極的推動力，但我們的業績反映了我們基礎業務基本面的更深層次的實力，這些基本面正在全面持續改善。

Importantly, our performance in our key end markets remained in line with our projections, and we sustained margin levels above 19% in the first half of 2025, roughly 180 basis points stronger than in the prior year same period. Continued strong pricing and an improving product mix were the primary drivers of strength, along with our persistent emphasis on enhancing operating efficiencies and cost management.

重要的是，我們在主要終端市場的業績與我們的預測保持一致，並且我們在 2025 年上半年的利潤率水準維持在 19% 以上，比去年同期高出約 180 個基點。持續強勁的定價和不斷改善的產品組合是我們實力的主要驅動力，同時我們持續強調提高營運效率和成本管理。

We remain focused on our long-term goal for our consolidated businesses to deliver mid to high 20% EBITDA margins, and we expect continued progress towards that goal to become increasingly evident as we advance through demand cycles and bring our investments fully online over the next several quarters.

我們仍然專注於我們的長期目標，即我們的合併業務實現 20% 的中高 EBITDA 利潤率，並且我們預計，隨著我們推進需求週期並在未來幾個季度全面投入投資，我們朝著這一目標的持續進展將變得越來越明顯。

It's important to note that our working capital requirements, especially those tied to metal pricing, came in above what we anticipated when we originally provided guidance in February. Neil will speak in more detail shortly, but based on current projections, we now expect free cash flow for full year 2025 to be between $50 million and $70 million.

值得注意的是，我們的營運資金需求，特別是與金屬定價相關的需求，高於我們在二月最初提供指導時的預期。尼爾很快就會詳細介紹，但根據目前的預測，我們預計 2025 年全年的自由現金流將在 5,000 萬美元至 7,000 萬美元之間。

Meanwhile, customer sentiment was impacted by tariff-related uncertainty during the quarter, particularly in our automotive segment. That said, conditions moderated late in second quarter, and we saw improvements in overall demand. We do recognize, however, that the broader policy and geopolitical landscape remains fluid and continues to introduce pockets of volatility in ordering patterns throughout the business.

同時，本季客戶情緒受到關稅相關不確定性的影響，尤其是在我們的汽車領域。儘管如此，第二季末情況有所緩和，我們看到整體需求有所改善。然而，我們確實認識到，更廣泛的政策和地緣政治格局仍然在不斷變化，並繼續在整個業務的訂購模式中引入波動。

Given this uncertainty, especially as it relates to tariffs, we continue to believe the impact of projected tariff levels will continue to have a neutral to slightly favorable impact on our earnings.

鑑於這種不確定性，特別是與關稅有關的不確定性，我們仍然相信預計關稅水準的影響將繼續對我們的收益產生中性到略微有利的影響。

Let's now turn to our growth strategy. As we look ahead, we continue to make meaningful progress on our strategic initiatives at our Trentwood and Warrick rolling mills. These two platforms represent a significant portion of our total conversion revenue dollars and the outlook across our aerospace, packaging, and general engineering end markets continues to be strong.

現在讓我們來談談我們的成長策略。展望未來，我們將繼續在特倫特伍德和沃里克軋機廠的戰略舉措上取得有意義的進展。這兩個平台占我們總轉換收入的很大一部分，我們的航空航太、包裝和通用工程終端市場的前景持續強勁。

Each investment is foundational to the next phase of Kaiser's margin expansion, which we anticipate will continue to improve in 2026.

每項投資都是凱撒利潤率擴張下一階段的基礎，我們預期 2026 年凱撒利潤率將持續提高。

Starting with the Trentwood Phase VII investment, the project is advancing on schedule, on budget and its completion remains closely aligned with supporting the growing demand for both aerospace and general engineering plate products in 2026 and beyond. We expect the additional production capacity to come online early in the fourth quarter of this year.

從特倫特伍德第七期投資開始，該項目正在按計劃、按預算推進，其完成與滿足 2026 年及以後航空航天和通用工程板材產品日益增長的需求密切相關。我們預計額外的生產能力將在今年第四季初投入使用。

Next, I'll turn to an update on our new coding line investment at our Warrick rolling mill. We have moved to the material qualifications phase of the startup process, albeit later than initially planned. And while the line is not yet running at full slated capacity, we expect continued improvement in line speeds and customer qualifications throughout the remainder of the year.

接下來，我將介紹我們在沃里克軋機廠的新編碼線投資的最新情況。儘管比最初計劃的要晚，但我們已經進入啟動過程的材料資格階段。雖然該生產線尚未滿負荷運行，但我們預計今年剩餘時間內生產線速度和客戶資格將持續改善。

Accordingly, we now anticipate reaching our full run rate in late fourth quarter of this year and expect the revised timing of qualifications to have a slightly negative impact on our second half 2025 packaging shipments and conversion revenue dollars outlook, which I will discuss later in the call.

因此，我們現在預計將在今年第四季末達到滿載運行率，並預計修改後的資格審查時間將對我們 2025 年下半年的包裝出貨量和轉換收入前景產生輕微的負面影響，我將在稍後的電話會議中討論這個問題。

Above all, I want to reaffirm our unwavering commitment to quality and being a best-in-class supplier for coated products. The equipment we've deployed at our Warrick operations is instrumental to maintaining our position as North America's leading coated supplier for aluminum packaging solutions. While we are all anxious for the new capacity to become fully available, we will not compromise on our standards or bypass any critical steps during the qualification phase with customers.

最重要的是，我想重申我們對品質的堅定承諾，並致力於成為一流的塗層產品供應商。我們在沃里克工廠部署的設備對於我們保持北美領先的鋁包裝解決方案塗層供應商的地位至關重要。雖然我們都渴望新產能能夠全面投入使用，但我們不會在與客戶的資格認證階段降低我們的標準或繞過任何關鍵步驟。

Finally, I'm proud to share that we finalized one of our key outstanding multi-year packaging customer contracts for coated products. This agreement reflects not only the confidence our customers place in us, but also the strength of the underlying market and our leadership position within it.

最後，我很自豪地告訴大家，我們最終完成了一項針對塗層產品的重要的多年期包裝客戶合約。該協議不僅反映了客戶對我們的信任，也反映了基礎市場的實力和我們在其中的領導地位。

In summary, operations continue to improve, we are strengthening our position in our key markets, and we continue to invest for long-term value creation.

總而言之，我們的營運持續改善，正在加強我們在主要市場的地位，並將繼續投資以創造長期價值。

With that, let me hand the call over to Neil for further detail on our second-quarter results. Neil?

說完這些，讓我把電話交給尼爾，以了解有關我們第二季度業績的更多詳細資訊。尼爾？

Thank you, Keith. Good morning, everyone. I'll now turn to slide 9 for an overview of our shipments and conversion revenue. Conversion revenue for the second quarter was $374 million, an increase of approximately $5 million or 1% compared to the prior year period. Looking at each of our end markets in detail, aerospace and high-strength conversion revenue totaled $127 million, down $6 million or approximately 5%, primarily due to a 4% decline in shipments over last year.

謝謝你，基斯。大家早安。現在我將翻到第 9 張投影片來概述我們的出貨量和轉換收入。第二季的轉換收入為 3.74 億美元，比去年同期增加約 500 萬美元，增幅為 1%。詳細查看我們的每個終端市場，航空航太和高強度轉換收入總計 1.27 億美元，下降 600 萬美元或約 5%，主要是由於出貨量比去年下降了 4%。

As previously discussed, prior year disruptions in commercial aircraft OEM production patterns have impacted the aluminum supply chain, which is now moving through a destocking period. Importantly, demand for our other aerospace and high-strength applications, including business jet, defense, and space, has remained strong.

如前所述，前幾年商用飛機原始設備製造商生產模式的中斷已經影響了鋁供應鏈，目前鋁供應鏈正處於去庫存期。重要的是，我們其他航空航太和高強度應用（包括公務機、國防和太空）的需求仍然強勁。

Packaging conversion revenue totaled $130 million, up $11 million or approximately 9% year over year, an improved mix of higher value-added products. Shipments for the quarter, while up 8% sequentially, declined 3% over the prior year, primarily due to the mixed shift in product deliveries as we continue to ramp the new roll coat line and qualify products for customers. As discussed, the underlying demand for our products remains strong, and we are working closely with our customers as we move through this transition.

包裝轉換收入總計 1.3 億美元，比去年同期增加 1,100 萬美元，增幅約 9%，高附加價值產品組合得到改善。本季出貨量較上季成長 8%，但比上年下降 3%，主要原因是我們繼續擴大新的滾塗生產線並為客戶提供合格產品，導致產品交付出現混合變化。正如所討論的，我們產品的潛在需求仍然強勁，我們在轉型過程中正與客戶密切合作。

General engineering conversion revenue for the second quarter was $86 million, up $3 million or 3% year over year, on a 5% increase in shipments. Broader market factors, including reshoring opportunities, continue to create a favorable operating environment in the general engineering end market, driving higher demand and solid pricing for both our long and plate products.

第二季通用工程轉換收入為 8,600 萬美元，年增 300 萬美元，增幅為 3%，出貨量增加了 5%。包括回流機會在內的更廣泛的市場因素繼續為通用工程終端市場創造有利的經營環境，推動我們的長材和板材產品的需求增加和價格穩定。

And finally, automotive conversion revenue of $32 million declined 4% year over year, on a 15% decrease in shipments, primarily due to tariff-related customer uncertainties affecting the automotive industry. The lower demand has been partially offset by improved pricing and product mix. Additional details and conversion revenue and shipments by end market applications can be found in the appendix of this presentation.

最後，汽車改裝收入為 3,200 萬美元，年減 4%，出貨量下降 15%，這主要是由於與關稅相關的客戶不確定性影響了汽車產業。價格和產品組合的改善部分抵消了需求的下降。更多詳細資訊以及終端市場應用的轉換收入和出貨量可在本簡報的附錄中找到。

Now moving to slide 10. Reported operating income for the second quarter was $38 million, an increase of approximately $2 million from the $36 million in the prior year quarter. As a reminder, the second quarter of 2024 included operating non-run rate charges of approximately $9 million, primarily associated with restructuring charges.

現在轉到投影片 10。第二季報告的營業收入為 3,800 萬美元，比去年同期的 3,600 萬美元增加約 200 萬美元。提醒一下，2024 年第二季包括約 900 萬美元的營運非營運費用，主要與重組費用有關。

After adjusting for the operating non-run rate charges, our second-quarter 2025 adjusted operating income was down $7 million from the prior year quarter. Our effective tax rate for the second quarter was 22%, compared to 23% in the second quarter of 2024.

在調整營業非營利費用後，我們 2025 年第二季的調整後營業收入較去年同期下降了 700 萬美元。我們第二季的有效稅率為 22%，而 2024 年第二季的有效稅率為 23%。

For the full year of 2025, we continue to expect our effective tax rate before discrete items to be in the low to mid-20% range, before taking into account any impact related to the new tax bill recently signed into law. Additionally, we anticipate the 2025 cash tax payments for federal, state, and foreign taxes will be in the $5 million to $7 million range.

對於 2025 年全年，我們仍然預計，在考慮最近簽署的新稅法相關影響之前，單項稅前有效稅率將處於 20% 的低點至中位區間。此外，我們預計 2025 年聯邦、州和外國稅的現金稅額將在 500 萬至 700 萬美元之間。

Reported net income for the second quarter was $23 million, or $1.41 net income per diluted share, compared to net income of $19 million, or $1.15 net income per diluted share in the prior year quarter. After adjusting for non-operating non-run rate benefit of approximately $3 million metal tax related to insurance settlements associated with prior year claims, adjusted net income for the second quarter of 2025 was $20 million, or $1.21 adjusted net income per diluted share. This compares to adjusted net income of $27 million, or $1.63 adjusted net income per diluted share in the prior year period.

第二季報告的淨收入為 2,300 萬美元，即每股淨收入 1.41 美元，而去年同期的淨收入為 1,900 萬美元，即每股淨收入 1.15 美元。在調整與上一年索賠相關的保險結算相關的約 300 萬美元金屬稅的非營業性非運行率收益後，2025 年第二季度的調整後淨收入為 2000 萬美元，或每股攤薄淨收入 1.21 美元。相比之下，去年同期的調整後淨收入為 2,700 萬美元，或每股攤薄淨收入為 1.63 美元。

Now turning to slide 11. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $68 million, down approximately $6 million from the prior year period. Our second-quarter 2025 results benefit from positive sales momentum, reflecting an increase in price and improved mix of higher value-added products. This was offset by higher operating costs, primarily associated with startup expense on a fourth roll coat line, and timing of certain major maintenance projects as compared to the second quarter of 2024.

現在翻到第 11 張投影片。第二季調整後的 EBITDA 為 6,800 萬美元，較去年同期下降約 600 萬美元。我們的 2025 年第二季業績受益於積極的銷售勢頭，反映了價格上漲和高附加價值產品組合的改善。與 2024 年第二季相比，這一成長被更高的營運成本所抵消，主要與第四條輥塗生產線的啟動費用以及某些主要維護項目的時間表有關。

As we continue to move through the startup of our new roll coat line at Warrick and complete the Phase VII investment at Trentwood, we expect operating costs to stabilize and improve.

隨著我們繼續啟動位於沃里克的新滾塗生產線並完成位於特倫特伍德的第七階段投資，我們預計營運成本將會穩定並改善。

Now turning to the discussion of our balance sheet and cash flow. On June 30, 2025, total cash of approximately $13 million and approximately $525 million of borrowing availability in our revolving credit facility equated to a strong liquidity position of approximately $538 million. There were $33 million of borrowings under our revolving credit facility as of the quarter end.

現在來討論我們的資產負債表和現金流。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，我們的循環信貸額度中的現金總額約為 1,300 萬美元，可供借款金額約為 5.25 億美元，相當於約 5.38 億美元的強勁流動性狀況。截至本季末，我們的循環信貸額度下有 3,300 萬美元的借款。

As a reminder, our senior notes interest costs are fixed at $48 million annually, and we have no notes maturing until 2028. As of the end of the second quarter, our net debt leverage ratio increased 30 basis points to 4.2 times from 3.9 times at the end of the first quarter.

提醒一下，我們的優先票據利息成本固定為每年 4,800 萬美元，我們沒有到 2028 年到期的票據。截至第二季末，我們的淨負債槓桿比率由第一季末的3.9倍上升30個基點至4.2倍。

Turning to capital allocation and free cash flow, we generated cash flow from operations of $16 million during the second quarter, with our capital expenditures totaling $44 million. For the full year 2025, we expect, continue to expect capital expenditures to be in the range of $120 million to $130 million, including some remaining costs for the fourth coating line project at Warrick and completion of our Phase VII expansion at Trentwood.

談到資本配置和自由現金流，我們在第二季度產生了 1,600 萬美元的營運現金流，資本支出總額為 4,400 萬美元。我們預計，2025 年全年的資本支出將繼續在 1.2 億至 1.3 億美元之間，其中包括沃里克第四條塗層線項目的一些剩餘成本以及特倫特伍德第七階段擴建項目的完成。

As we enter the year, we anticipate a free cash flow for the full year 2025 of approximately $100 million. While we have successfully reduced the total pounds of inventory, which was a significant contributor to our projections, recent trade policy actions and the material impact that has had on our working capital utilization have led us to revise our expectation. As such, we are now projecting to generate approximately $50 million to $70 million of free cash flow for the full year of 2025.

進入新的一年，我們預計 2025 年全年的自由現金流約為 1 億美元。雖然我們成功地減少了庫存總重量，這對我們的預測有很大貢獻，但最近的貿易政策行動及其對我們的營運資金利用率的重大影響導致我們修改了預期。因此，我們預計 2025 年全年將產生約 5,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的自由現金流。

Finally, on July 15, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per common share, reinforcing the confidence in our long-term strategy to drive increasingly profitable growth and maximizing shareholder value.

最後，7 月 15 日，我們宣布董事會宣布每股普通股派發 0.77 美元的季度股息，這增強了我們對推動獲利成長和股東價值最大化的長期策略的信心。

I'll now turn the call back over to Keith to discuss our outlook. Keith?

現在我將把電話轉回給 Keith 來討論我們的前景。基思？

Thanks, Neil. As we continue throughout the year, we're encouraged by the momentum we see across our business and the clarity we're gaining in our markets. Let me now walk you through our outlook by end market.

謝謝，尼爾。隨著我們全年的持續發展，我們對整個業務的發展勢頭和市場日益清晰的情況感到鼓舞。現在讓我向您介紹我們對終端市場的展望。

Starting on slide 13 with aerospace and high strength, the pace of commercial aircraft delivery stepped up again in the second quarter. We're seeing continued signs that the supply chain is recovering, and while select areas such as engines and interiors are still experiencing disruption, those pockets are steadily moderating.

從第 13 張幻燈片開始，航空航天和高強度，商用飛機的交付速度在第二季度再次加快。我們不斷看到供應鏈正在復甦的跡象，雖然引擎和內裝等特定領域仍然受到干擾，但這些領域正在穩步緩和。

Aluminum inventory at the customers remain elevated in the channel for now, but as build rates ramp, we expect that inventory to be absorbed rapidly. Demand in defense, space, and business jet remain consistently strong throughout the quarter. Longer term, we believe Kaiser's positioning remains highly advantaged as a leading global supplier of aluminum products to these end markets, and our capital investments support the durability of that leadership well into the future.

目前，客戶的鋁庫存仍處於高位，但隨著建造率的提高，我們預計庫存將被迅速吸收。整個季度國防、航太和公務機的需求仍然保持強勁。從長遠來看，我們相信，作為這些終端市場的全球領先鋁產品供應商，凱撒的地位仍然具有高度優勢，而我們的資本投資將支持這一領導地位在未來的持久性。

Accordingly, our outlook for both shipments and conversion revenue remains unchanged from February for a projected decline of approximately 5% to 7% year over year, due mainly to inventory destocking underway in the large commercial jet supply chain.

因此，我們對出貨量和轉換收入的預測與 2 月相比保持不變，預計將年減約 5% 至 7%，這主要是由於大型商用飛機供應鏈正在進行庫存去庫存。

Let's move on to packaging on slide 14. We are refining our outlook for packaging conversion revenue to increase year over year by approximately 15% to 20%, while shipments are expected to decline approximately 3% to 5% year over year. I want to be very clear, this adjustment is driven entirely by the commissioning timeline for our new coating equipment and underperformance from our coding converters who have struggled to meet their commitments to us through the first half of the year.

讓我們繼續討論第 14 張投影片上的包裝。我們正在調整包裝轉換收入的預期，預計其年增約 15% 至 20%，而出貨量預計將年減約 3% 至 5%。我想非常清楚地說明，這項調整完全是由我們新塗層設備的調試時間表以及我們的編碼轉換器的表現不佳所驅動的，他們在今年上半年一直難以履行對我們的承諾。

We expect improved performance in all areas as we progress into the second half of the year. As previously discussed, North American demand far exceeds available supply, and that dynamic is expected to continue well beyond 2025. Our team remains fully committed to accelerating increased capacity throughput from our value stream to meet the growing needs of our customers well into the future.

我們預計，隨著下半年的到來，各領域的業績都會有所改善。如前所述，北美的需求遠遠超過可用的供應，預計這種動態將持續到 2025 年以後。我們的團隊將繼續全力致力於加速提高價值流的產能吞吐量，以滿足客戶未來日益增長的需求。

Turning now to general engineering on slide 15, our performance continues to be strong. Shipments are up mid-single digits and pricing remains solid, supporting growth in conversion revenue. While tariffs are not directly impacting our volume, we are seeing some month-to-month variability in order patterns as customers adjust to the implications of the Midwest premium.

現在轉到幻燈片 15 上的通用工程，我們的表現繼續保持強勁。出貨量成長了中等個位數，價格保持穩定，支持了轉換收入的成長。雖然關稅不會直接影響我們的銷售量，但隨著客戶適應中西部溢價的影響，我們看到訂單模式逐月有所變化。

Broadly speaking, both plate and long products have shown robust activity, making the first half of 2025 one of our strongest periods since 2018, aside from the unusual activity in the post-COVID environment in the 2021, 2022 period.

整體而言，板材和長材產品均表現出強勁的活動，除了 2021 年和 2022 年疫情後環境中的異常活動外，2025 年上半年成為我們自 2018 年以來最強勁的時期之一。

Looking ahead to the second half, we expect continued strength in shipments, supported by a favorable mixed shift toward plate products, which is a positive for conversion revenue. We continue to expect full-year shipments and conversion revenue to be up year over year by 5% to 10%.

展望下半年，我們預計出貨量將持續保持強勁，這得益於向板材產品的有利混合轉變，這對轉換收入有利。我們繼續預計全年出貨量和轉換收入將年增 5% 至 10%。

Finally, turning to automotive on slide 16, our outlook for the remainder of the year remains steady. Industry build rates have fluctuated with tariff developments, starting the year with expectations of about 15.7 million units. Current build rates are expected closer now to the mid-14 million range.

最後，轉到第 16 張投影片上的汽車產業，我們對今年剩餘時間的展望保持穩定。產業建設率隨著關稅的發展而波動，今年年初的預期建設量約為 1,570 萬台。目前的建設速度預計接近 1400 萬左右。

Despite the macro uncertainty, Kaiser's exposure is concentrated in key platforms, particularly SUVs and light trucks, where demand has remained healthy. As a result, we expect our second half shipments and conversion revenue to hold steady compared to the first half of 2025.

儘管宏觀經濟存在不確定性，凱撒的投資仍集中在關鍵平台，尤其是 SUV 和輕型卡車，這些平台的需求仍然強勁。因此，我們預計下半年的出貨量和轉換收入將與 2025 年上半年保持穩定。

Now turning to our summary outlook on slide 17. In summary, the outlook for our end markets remains intact, despite the uncertain operating environment. Based on first-half results, our total conversion revenue guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at a 5% to 10% year-over-year improvement.

現在轉到投影片 17 上的總結展望。總而言之，儘管經營環境不確定，但我們的終端市場前景仍然完好。根據上半年的業績，我們對 2025 年總轉換收入的預期保持不變，仍為年增 5% 至 10%。

However, our margin performance is slightly better than we initially anticipated, and as a result, we're raising our full-year EBITDA outlook by 5% versus our outlook in February to now reflect growth of 10% to 15% year over year. This marks a strong step forward and reflects both solid execution and a resilient market backdrop, along with favorable tailwinds provided by sharply rising metal prices today.

然而，我們的利潤率表現略好於我們最初的預期，因此，我們將全年 EBITDA 預期較 2 月的預期上調了 5%，目前反映出同比增長 10% 至 15%。這標誌著向前邁出了堅實的一步，反映了穩健的執行力和有彈性的市場背景，以及當今金屬價格大幅上漲帶來的有利推動力。

Importantly, 2025 will be a turning point for Kaiser towards meeting our long-term conversion revenue and EBITDA margin goals, and this is without fully benefiting from the targeted investments and strategic positioning we've pursued over the past several years.

重要的是，2025 年將成為 Kaiser 實現長期轉換收入和 EBITDA 利潤率目標的轉捩點，而這還沒有充分受益於我們過去幾年所追求的有針對性的投資和策略定位。

With momentum accelerating for full deployment of our investments in 2026, along with continued strength in our end markets, we look forward to showcasing the full potential of these businesses in the years ahead.

隨著我們在 2026 年全面部署投資的勢頭不斷加快，以及我們終端市場的持續強勁，我們期待在未來幾年展示這些業務的全部潛力。

With that, I will now open the call to any questions you may have. Operator?

現在，我將開始回答大家可能提出的任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

I have a few questions here, maybe first starting with packaging. I guess what's driving the delay in the commissioning and what's giving you confidence in the current target? Is the sole driver of lower packaging guidance? You mentioned some coating delays. I'm just trying to get a sense for the shipping, new guidance you're providing.

我這裡有幾個問題，也許先從包裝開始。我想問一下，是什麼原因導致了調試的延遲，又是什麼讓您對當前的目標充滿信心？降低包裝指導價的唯一驅動因素是什麼？您提到了一些塗層延遲。我只是想了解您提供的有關運輸的新指導。

Yeah. Thanks, Bill. Good morning. What we're seeing is what you might imagine as typical startup issues on a fairly complex, large piece of equipment. We have got the equipment in line. We have begun the qualification periods.

是的。謝謝，比爾。早安.我們所看到的可能是您在相當複雜、大型的設備上看到的典型啟動問題。我們已經把設備排好隊了。我們已經開始資格審查階段。

But qualifications are quite important here, they're typically a three-phase type process before you're fully qualified. And you can open the line up for regular runs. Of course, we've got multiple different coatings that we're trying to qualify at the same time. And then you're debugging that equipment, which is, we're just getting it up to rate.

但資格在這裡非常重要，在你完全合格之前，通常是一個三階段的過程。並且您可以打開線路進行常規運行。當然，我們正在嘗試同時對多種不同的塗層進行鑑定。然後你調試該設備，也就是說，我們只是讓它達到額定值。

So all of that has caused us to say, hey, we're still looking for full outload here at the end of the year. But that ramp up is taking a little longer than expected, than what we discussed in February.

所以所有這些都讓我們說，嘿，我們仍然希望在年底實現滿載運轉。但這成長所花的時間比我們預期的要長一些，也比我們在二月討論的時間要長一些。

I'll come on the back end of that and say, look, demand continues to be very strong. And we're moving through those processes. But we expect volume on packaging is going to be down about 3.5 million pounds or percent on the volume piece. And the conversion revenue is still going to be up [15% to 20%].

我將從後端說起，看，需求持續強勁。我們正在進行這些流程。但我們預計包裝量將下降約 350 萬磅或下降百分之幾。轉換收入仍將上升[15% 至 20%]。

Now, we've also, I mentioned in my comments that we've had some underperformance by some of our converters, that their performance hasn't been as we expected. And so therefore, that's added on to some of our misses and some of our re-visioning of our re-outlooking of our volume output for the year.

現在，我在評論中也提到，我們的一些轉換器表現不佳，其性能不如我們預期。因此，這增加了我們的一些失誤，並增加了我們對今年產量前景的重新展望。

We have expected recovery coming on there. We need it. The market's strong and we expect all that, as I said, to improve in the second half of the year.

我們預計那裡將會復甦。我們需要它。市場表現強勁，正如我所說，我們預計下半年市場將有所改善。

Okay. Yeah, thanks for that. And then, it was mentioned that the aero inventories are beginning to right size. But, yet inventories are still elevated. I guess at this stage, what visibility do you have here? I guess, when do you see or foresee the destocking coming to an end? We're hearing, obviously, kind of positive news flow from the commercial aerospace side in terms of their own ramps. But I wanted to get a sense for when you think this destocking thing will run its course.

好的。是的，謝謝。然後，有人提到航空庫存開始達到合適的規模。但庫存仍然很高。我想，在這個階段，您在這方面的可見度如何？我想問一下，您認為或預見到去庫存化什麼時候會結束？顯然，我們聽到了來自商業航空航天方面關於其自身坡道的積極消息。但我想了解一下，您認為這種去庫存現象何時會結束。

Yeah. Well on that front, Bill, we continue to welcome the good news that comes from the large jet manufacturers, obviously. They are continuing to ramp. That ramp is consistent and holding. We're hopeful for another ramp increase announcement toward the end of the year. Obviously, the faster we ramp up, the more healthier the supply chain will be and that inventory bubble can dissipate.

是的。好吧，比爾，在這方面，我們顯然繼續歡迎來自大型噴射機製造商的好消息。他們正在繼續加大力度。該斜坡是一致且可保持的。我們希望在今年年底前能再次宣布增加產量。顯然，我們提高的速度越快，供應鏈就會越健康，庫存泡沫就會消散。

Right now, we're on track for what we expected for the year. I expect 2026 to be in much better shape. And I think we'll have some more visibility on that. That won't be necessarily reflective in our third-quarter outlook, Bill. Trentwood is going down for the bulk of the quarter, and a good bit of that impact could be shipment.

目前，我們正朝著今年的預期目標前進。我預計 2026 年的情況會更好。我認為我們會對此有更清晰的認識。比爾，這並不一定會反映在我們的第三季展望中。特倫特伍德在本季的大部分時間都在下滑，其中很大一部分影響可能是出貨量。

So it won't necessarily be reflective that that's happening. But with us delivering less in the third quarter, that's going to help that bubble as well. So at this point, I think that bubble is going to dissipate by the end of this year, as expected. And if demand is as we expect in 2026, at this point, we should be well through that. And the supply chain should be ramping up pretty rapidly to meet the increased demand.

因此，它不一定能反映出正在發生的事情。但由於我們第三季交付量減少，這也將加劇泡沫。因此，目前我認為泡沫將在今年年底前消散，正如預期的那樣。如果 2026 年的需求如我們預期的那樣，那麼現在我們應該能夠順利度過這個難關。供應鏈應該迅速擴張以滿足不斷增長的需求。

Yeah, thanks for that. And maybe before jumping back into Q, kind of tying in some of your previous comments, how should we think about the cadence of EBITDA in the back half of the year? Will the third quarter be a trough based off what you mentioned about Trentwood and your prior comments around packaging?

是的，謝謝。在回到問題 Q 之前，我想結合您之前的一些評論，我們應該如何看待下半年 EBITDA 的節奏？根據您提到的特倫特伍德以及您之前對包裝的評論，第三季會成為低谷嗎？

Well, quite frankly, we're seeing aerospace will be down slightly in the third quarter, compared to the second quarter and even the first half run rate. It'll be down slightly, period to period. But we're going to see that ramp come up on packaging to offset that. The conversion revenue will start to offset any of that. So I expected the trough in the second quarter.

嗯，坦白說，與第二季甚至上半年的運行率相比，我們看到第三季航空航太業的運行率將略有下降。隨著時間推移，它會略有下降。但我們會看到包裝價格上漲來抵消這一影響。轉換收入將開始抵消這些收入。所以我預計第二季會出現低潮。

And our performance, and we mentioned the tailwinds from metal, and then really the performance we had was better than we expected. So I believe the second half is going to look pretty much as we predicted when we talked about it in February. So we're reiterating what the second half looks like, Bill, in this quarter.

我們的表現，我們提到了金屬的順風，然後我們的表現確實比我們預期的要好。因此我相信下半年的情況將與我們二月預測的差不多。因此，比爾，我們在本季重申下半年的情況。

Josh Sullivan, The Benchmark Company.

喬許‧沙利文 (Josh Sullivan)，基準公司。

A question on the aerospace inventory level. At this point, is that inventory being held at the distributor customers or is it at the OEMs?

關於航空航天庫存水準的問題。目前，庫存是存放在經銷商客戶還是存放在 OEM 處？

Well, I think earlier in the year, late last year, it was in both parts of the supply chain. But I think what we've seen through the first half of the year is that the service center side has been getting their balance sheet. I mean, not balance sheet, excuse me, but their supply base and it's been more in line. So we've seen that reduction and that's been some of the impact we've been talking about.

嗯，我認為今年早些時候，也就是去年年底，供應鏈的兩個部分都出現了這種情況。但我認為，從上半年的情況來看，服務中心方面已經取得了資產負債表。我的意思是，不是資產負債表，對不起，而是他們的供應基礎，而且更一致。因此，我們看到了這種減少，這就是我們一直在談論的一些影響。

I think it currently resides at the OEMs. And the OEMs, as you recall, had been ramping up last year and it ran into a couple of headwinds themselves. So a good bit of that metal right now resides at the OEMs. And that's why we keep getting a more favorable outlook here as they continue those ramp rates.

我認為它目前位於 OEM 處。正如您所記得的那樣，OEM 廠商去年一直在加大力度，但他們自己也遇到了一些阻力。因此，目前大部分金屬都存在於原始設備製造商 (OEM) 手中。這就是為什麼隨著他們繼續保持這些成長速度，我們會不斷獲得更樂觀的前景。

We know that they're consuming more and more of that metal. And so that's where we're getting healthier, at least in the second half of the year.

我們知道他們消耗的金屬越來越多。因此，至少在下半年，我們的健康狀況會變得更好。

Got it. And then just think about past cycles, destock to restock with aerospace, is that signaling that you're getting? Is that similar to previous cycles or is there anything different, necessarily about this cycle that we might want to think about as we ramp up?

知道了。然後想想過去的周期，從去庫存到航空航太補貨，這是否預示著你得到了什麼？這與之前的周期相似嗎？或者說，這個週期有什麼不同嗎？我們在加速過程中可能需要考慮這些差異嗎？

No, I think it's all around build rates, Josh. And as these things really start to ramp, we know they have the backlog. We know they've been ramping up their entire supplies' chains and their own productivity to meet higher levels.

不，我認為這完全取決於建造率，喬希。隨著這些事情真正開始增多，我們知道他們有積壓的工作。我們知道他們一直在提升整個供應鏈和自身的生產力以達到更高的水平。

So it's really in our mind as we're looking forward, we see it ramping 2026 through the balance of the decade. It was the big reason for us to launch the next phase investment at Trentwood. And we think that's going to come out at a very good time.

因此，當我們展望未來時，我們確實認為它將在 2026 年達到十年平衡。這是我們在特倫特伍德啟動下一階段投資的重要原因。我們認為這會在一個非常好的時機出現。

Now, if we get some tailwinds from semiconductor or continue GE, that's just going to put that capacity in even a better position for us. So I think we're in for -- we've had a reset here in the last 12 to 18 months. And I think the next three to four years are going to be very strong in taxing on the supply chain in aerospace.

現在，如果我們從半導體或通用電氣獲得一些順風，那麼這只會讓我們的產能處於更有利的地位。所以我認為我們已經進入了——在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡我們已經進行了一次重置。我認為未來三到四年航空航天供應鏈的稅收將會非常強勁。

And then just one last question on defense. The F-35, as far as the domestic rates, there's some questions around that, obviously strong on the international side. And then, the overall question about drones and new programs coming in. How exposed are you to one program versus the other versus kind of the general trend in rising defense spending?

最後一個問題是關於防守的。就 F-35 的國內價格而言，存在一些疑問，但國際價格顯然較高。然後，關於無人機和新項目的總體問題。您對某個計劃的了解程度如何，以及國防開支成長的整體趨勢如何？

Well, first of all, we think the F-35 is, it takes a breather. This isn't the first time to take a little breather, but with all the NATO allies and foreign build rates that have come online, they tend to just backfill, just like Boeing did when China said that they weren't going to take shipments for a while. They very quickly pivoted and filled the backlog with other demand.

嗯，首先，我們認為 F-35 需要喘息一下。這不是第一次稍事休息，但隨著所有北約盟國和外國的建造率都已上線，他們往往只是補充，就像波音公司在中國表示他們暫時不會接收貨物時所做的那樣。他們很快就做出調整，用其他需求填補了積壓訂單。

We see that going on with the F-35. And now, whatever happens in the future always remains to be seen. We thought the F-22 was going to be much bigger than it turned out to be. What will be the F-47? Who knows?

我們看到 F-35 正在經歷這樣的情況。而現在，未來會發生什麼事還有待觀察。我們原以為 F-22 會比實際尺寸大得多。F-47 將會是什麼樣子？誰知道呢？

But one of the things that we've continually discussed from a Kaiser perspective, our positioning in that market has kept us in all of the available platforms, whether they were rotary or fixed wing. And so we're still supplying metal toward F-16 builds that were supposed to be over 10 years ago. And we're still seeing a nice, healthy build rate. We're seeing that on the F-15, and we still see long runway here for the F-35.

但從凱撒的角度來看，我們不斷討論的一件事是，我們在該市場中的定位使我們處於所有可用的平台中，無論是旋翼還是固定翼。因此，我們仍在為 F-16 的製造提供金屬，而這本應是 10 多年前的事了。我們仍然看到良好、健康的建設率。我們在 F-15 上看到了這一點，我們仍然看到 F-35 擁有較長的跑道。

So we're -- and there's actually even been some discussion about bringing not just cargo, but military cargo back at some rate. So we're pretty well positioned throughout that chain. And what I do like about our positioning there, our capacity is also shared with strong general engineering for like semiconductor or space, which is, continues to build.

因此，我們——實際上甚至已經討論過不僅要運回貨物，還要以某種速度運回軍用貨物。因此，我們在整個鏈條中處於非常有利的位置。我確實喜歡我們在那裡的定位，我們的產能也與半導體或空間等強大的通用工程共享，並且還在繼續建造。

So we have many offsets that can replace any short-term transitional type things that happen. And that's why when you look at our -- really our performance on aerospace, you see a very consistent quarter-to-quarter type run, and we can bring those continued growth investments we're making to bear pretty quickly.

因此，我們有許多抵消措施可以取代發生的任何短期過渡性事件。這就是為什麼當你看到我們在航空航太領域的實際表現時，你會看到季度間表現非常一致，而且我們可以很快地將我們所做的持續成長投資轉化為回報。

Yeah, I bet a C-17 would have some nice aluminum content on the cargo side.

是的，我敢打賭 C-17 的貨艙側會有一些不錯的鋁含量。

(Operator Instructions) Abe Landa, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行 Abe Landa。

Maybe starting off, you called out some costs, I believe, related to startup charges. I think you said $17 million. I guess what's embedded in there? Are those going to repeat in the second half of next year? And if so, what should we expect? And is that number added back to EBITDA or no?

也許一開始你就提到了一些我認為與啟動費用相關的成本。我想你說的是1700萬美元。我猜這裡面嵌入了什麼？明年下半年還會重複這樣的情況嗎？如果是這樣，我們該期待什麼？這個數字是否加回 EBITDA 中？

Oh, it was added in the quarter. But we called that out because we think those are associated with, one, the startup at Warrick related to the roll coat four lines. So we expect those to continue to dissipate as we bring that line up.

哦，這是本季度添加的。但我們之所以提到這一點，是因為我們認為這些都與 Warrick 的四條滾塗生產線相關的新創公司有關。因此，我們預計，隨著我們提高這條線，這些影響將繼續消散。

And then it was a timeliness issue. We had a number of furnace rebuilds that weren't necessarily planned, but we had an opportune time to deliver those, and we did. So we went ahead and did those repairs while we continue to have some major maintenance throughout every quarter through the year. We felt the need to call that out because we did have a spike in those costs for the quarter. But again, we wouldn't expect those particular costs to reoccur for the balance of the year.

然後這是一個及時性問題。我們進行了一些未必在計劃內的熔爐重建，但我們有合適的時機來完成這些重建，而且我們也確實這樣做了。因此，我們繼續進行這些維修，同時我們每年每個季度都會繼續進行一些重大維護。我們覺得有必要指出這一點，因為本季我們的成本確實出現了飆升。但同樣，我們預計這些特定成本不會在今年餘下時間內再次出現。

So it shouldn't reoccur, but it was added back to the adjusted EBITDA number, or it was not? Just to clarify.

所以它不應該再次發生，但它被加回到調整後的 EBITDA 數字中，還是沒有？只是為了澄清一下。

Neal will take that.

尼爾會接受的。

It wasn't added back to the adjusted EBITDA at all. And we just highlighted that was a cost that impacted the quarter as compared to the prior year quarter.

它根本沒有被加回調整後的 EBITDA 中。我們剛剛強調，與去年同期相比，這是影響本季的成本。

Okay. That's clear. And then I know you kind of were talking about this earlier, just on pre-cash flow guidance lower while EBITDA is higher. And I think you kind of mentioned that working capital. Can you just describe maybe in more detail, like, what's driving that? What are the elements there? I mean, is it tariff related? Are there some other items in there? Is it metal lag effect? Kind of more color on that would be helpful.

好的。這很清楚。然後我知道您之前談到過這個，只是關於現金流預測較低而 EBITDA 較高。我認為您提到了營運資金。您能否更詳細地描述一下，例如，是什麼導致了這種情況？那裡有什麼元素？我的意思是，這與關稅有關嗎？裡面還有其他物品嗎？這是金屬滯後效應嗎？如果能提供更多的顏色會更有幫助。

Yeah. So we planned this year, and then we anticipated in our outlook when we gave the outlook of $100 million free cash flow, a significant reduction in some of our actions we were taking in inventory management. We did get our pounds of inventory down significantly.

是的。因此，我們制定了今年的計劃，然後我們在展望中預測，當我們給出 1 億美元自由現金流的前景時，我們在庫存管理方面採取的一些行動將大幅減少。我們的庫存重量確實大幅下降。

However, offsetting that, and it's the first in years, been a rapid increase in metal prices. And that's basically kept our dollars amount of inventory consistent, even though pounds are down. So that basically picked up additional usage of working capital due to the tariff increases in metal prices.

然而，與此相抵消的是金屬價格的快速上漲，這也是多年來的首次。儘管英鎊下跌，但這基本上使我們的庫存美元金額保持一致。因此，由於金屬價格的關稅上漲，營運資金的使用量基本上有所增加。

Do you have a rule of thumb of like, for every $100 of Midwest transaction price equals x dollars of working capital? Anything like that?

您是否有這樣的經驗法則：中西部每 100 美元的交易價格等於 x 美元的營運資本？有類似的事情嗎？

No. We could talk, but we don't have a rule of thumb because there's multiple items that go into that, receivables and payables and working capital. So it's not like one rule of thumb we can drop out there.

不。我們可以談談，但我們沒有經驗法則，因為其中涉及多個項目，應收帳款、應付帳款和營運資金。所以這不是我們可以放棄的一條經驗法則。

Okay. And then I know there's a lot of investments going on. I know you have that going on. You have kind of your metal sourcing strategy as well. I guess if we kind of -- a lot of these things are going to be complete this year, I guess, how do we exit the year? How do we think about building the bridge to next year when all these investments are -- has come through?

好的。然後我知道有很多投資正在進行。我知道你正在經歷這樣的事情。您也有自己的金屬採購策略。我想如果我們——很多事情都會在今年完成，我想，我們該如何結束這一年？當所有這些投資都已到位時，我們如何考慮為明年建造橋樑？

Right. I think we'll give a better outlook as we get into the third quarter. We'll give you a better outlook on how we're looking out to exit the year.

正確的。我認為進入第三季時我們會給出更好的前景。我們將為您提供有關我們如何結束今年的更好展望。

But I think we've given enough guidance on that over the last -- or outlook over that over the last [quarter] with the 300 to 400 basis point improvement on the margin that we expect as we exit with the roll coat line. And as operational efficiencies kick in, there's probably another 150, 200 basis points up with that. So all of that, we've laid that out and we haven't come off that guidance yet, or that outlook.

但我認為，我們在上一季已經對此給出了足夠的指導，或者說對上一季的展望，隨著我們推出滾塗生產線，我們預計利潤率將提高 300 至 400 個基點。隨著營運效率的提高，這一數字可能還會再上升 150 到 200 個基點。所以，我們已經把所有這些列出來了，但我們還沒有放棄這項指導或展望。

And is tariffs impacting your metal sourcing strategy? I know you had some earlier kind of guidance or color on the potential impact on margins there.

關稅是否影響您的金屬採購策略？我知道您之前曾就利潤的潛在影響提供過一些指導或說明。

No, tariffs actually is still neutral to positive for us. Again, we passed through that Midwest transaction price. So we're not being really impacted by the run up as we move that through with our metal neutrality pass through side.

不，關稅實際上對我們來說仍然是中性甚至積極的。再次，我們通過了中西部的交易價格。因此，當我們通過金屬中性傳遞側進行移動時，我們並沒有受到上漲的真正影響。

So that's not been a direct impact. And any other sourcing costs and that, we've been pretty well able to offset with other actions we're taking.

所以這並不是直接影響。任何其他採購成本，我們都可以透過採取其他行動來抵銷。

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. Mr. Harvey, I'd like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

謝謝。目前我們沒有其他問題。哈維先生，我想把發言權交還給您，請您發表最後評論。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝您，接線生。

Look, we're excited for the future at Kaiser, and we're positioning the company for continued improving performance as we bring our new investments to bear.

瞧，我們對凱撒的未來充滿期待，隨著新投資的實施，我們將為公司持續提高績效做好準備。

Thank you for your interest in the company, and I'll look forward to updating you on our progress when we report our third-quarter results in October. Have a good day.

感謝您對公司的關注，我期待在十月報告第三季業績時向您通報我們的進展。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與並祝您有美好的一天。