Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Kaiser Aluminum Corporation first-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加凱撒鋁業公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Kim Orlando, with Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人、投資者關係部的 Kim Orlando 女士。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Kaiser Aluminum's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

謝謝。大家好，歡迎參加凱撒鋁業 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。

If you have not yet seen a copy of our earnings release, please visit the Investor Relations page on our website at kaiseraluminum.com. We have also posted a PDF version of the slide presentation for this call. Joining me on the call today are Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Keith Harvey; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Neal West.

如果您尚未看到我們的收益報告副本，請造訪我們網站 kaiseraluminum.com 上的投資者關係頁面。我們也發布了本次電話會議投影片簡報的 PDF 版本。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Keith Harvey；以及執行副總裁兼財務長尼爾‧韋斯特 (Neal West)。

Before we begin, I'd like to refer you to the first four slides of our presentation and remind you that the statements made by management and the information contained in this presentation that constitute forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations.

在我們開始之前，我想請您看一下我們簡報的前四張投影片，並提醒您，管理層所做的陳述和本簡報中包含的構成前瞻性陳述的資訊均基於管理層當前的預期。

For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from the forward-looking statement, please refer to the company's earnings release and reports filed with the Security and Exchange Commission, including the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the full year ended December 31, 2024. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statement to conform the statement to actual results or changes in the company's expectations.

有關可能導致結果與前瞻性聲明有重大差異的具體風險因素的摘要，請參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和報告，包括本公司截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的全年 10-K 表年度報告。本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明以使該聲明符合實際結果或公司預期變更的義務。

In addition, we have included non-GAAP financial information in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release and in the appendix of the presentation.

此外，我們在討論中也納入了非公認會計準則財務資訊。與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳包含在收益報告和簡報的附錄中。

Reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP financial measures are not provided because certain items required for such reconciliations are outside of our control and or cannot be reasonably predicted or provided without unreasonable effort. Any reference to EBITDA in our discussion today means adjusted EBITDA, which excludes non-run rate items for which we have provided reconciliations in the appendix.

未提供某些前瞻性非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，因為此類對賬所需的某些項目超出了我們的控制範圍，或無法合理預測，也無法在不付出不合理努力的情況下提供。我們今天的討論中提到的任何 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA，其中不包括我們在附錄中提供對帳的非運行率項目。

Further, slide 5 contains definitions of terms and measures that will be commonly used throughout today's presentation. At the conclusion of the company's presentation, we will open the call for questions.

此外，投影片 5 包含今天簡報中常用的術語和措施的定義。公司演示結束後，我們將開始提問。

I would now like to turn the call over to Keith Harvey. Keith?

現在我想把電話轉給基斯·哈維。基思？

Thanks, Kim, and thank you all for joining us for a review of our first-quarter 2025 results. Turning to slide 7.

謝謝，Kim，也謝謝大家與我們一起回顧我們的 2025 年第一季業績。翻到幻燈片 7。

We're off to a strong start to the year. Despite ongoing volatility driven by recent trade policy actions, our end markets are tracking in line with the expectations we outlined in February, and our full-year outlook has improved with our solid first-quarter results. Operationally, we continue to drive positive results for our stakeholders with strengthening demand and effective cost management.

今年我們有一個好的開始。儘管近期貿易政策行動導致市場持續波動，但我們的終端市場仍符合我們在二月提出的預期，隨著第一季業績穩健，我們的全年前景有所改善。在營運方面，我們透過加強需求和有效的成本管理來繼續為利害關係人帶來積極的成果。

A major focus for us is on optimizing overhead across the business, staying true to Kaiser's core principle of being a low-cost producer. Additionally, we've benefited from a favorable move in metal pricing, which Neal will expand on shortly. Overall, we're encouraged by the strong momentum we've established and remain confident in our ability to sustain it through the balance of 2025.

我們的重點是優化整個業務的管理費用，並堅持 Kaiser 作為低成本生產商的核心原則。此外，我們也受惠於金屬價格的有利走勢，尼爾很快就會詳細說明這一點。總體而言，我們對已經建立的強勁勢頭感到鼓舞，並對我們在 2025 年餘下時間維持這一勢頭的能力充滿信心。

A major component of the progress we are making is bringing to market two major investments which are instrumental to planned growth in several of our key end markets. First, our fourth coating line at our Warrick rolling mill is currently undergoing commissioning and will be moving into the customer qualification phase soon.

我們所取得的進展的一個重要組成部分是將兩項重大投資推向市場，這對我們幾個主要終端市場的計畫成長至關重要。首先，我們沃里克軋機廠的第四條塗層生產線目前正在調試，並將很快進入客戶認證階段。

This line plays a critical role in both our growth strategy and for the broader market, where demand for our products remains high and supply remains constrained. Our customers are eagerly awaiting these coated products, and we are fully committed to meeting that demand as fast as possible while upholding the exceptional quality standards that define Kaiser across all its end markets.

這條生產線在我們的成長策略和更廣泛的市場中都發揮著至關重要的作用，我們的產品需求仍然很高，而供應仍然受到限制。我們的客戶熱切期待這些塗層產品，我們全力致力於盡快滿足這項需求，同時堅持 Kaiser 在所有終端市場的卓越品質標準。

Second, our Trentwood Phase VII investment project is progressing smoothly. Equipment has arrived on site, and the team is currently conducting prep exercises to facilitate a seamless installation.

第二，我們的特倫特伍德第七期投資項目進展順利。設備已抵達現場，團隊目前正在進行準備工作，以確保無縫安裝。

The Trentwood team has mastered this process over the course of six major expansions over nearly two decades, expanding our aerospace and general engineering heat-treated plate capacity by greater than 2.5 times. The timing for this investment is ideal as our key end markets are expected to recover over the next several quarters.

特倫特伍德團隊在近二十年的時間裡透過六次重大擴建掌握了這項工藝，使我們的航空航太和通用工程熱處理板產能提高了 2.5 倍以上。此次投資的時機非常理想，因為我們的主要終端市場預計將在未來幾季內復甦。

Together, these investments mark the next phase of growth for Kaiser. We expect the result of these projects to drive a step change in our EBITDA and margin performance that we've previously outlined for the coming years, along with the continued pace of deleveraging.

這些投資共同標誌著凱撒的下一階段成長。我們預計這些項目的結果將推動我們先前概述的未來幾年 EBITDA 和利潤率表現的逐步變化，同時繼續推動去槓桿化。

Next, I'd like to address the topic of tariffs. In the near term, we believe Kaiser is well-positioned to navigate market volatility in the current environment. Our geographic footprint and supply chain are predominantly North American, and our contracts are designed to be metal-neutral.

接下來我想談談關稅問題。短期內，我們相信凱撒有能力應對當前環境下的市場波動。我們的地理分佈和供應鏈主要在北美，我們的合約設計為金屬中性。

We're already seeing upside in end markets where uncertainty of supply and rising import fees and costs have increased demand for domestic products. Additionally, our own supply lines have been reviewed and are well-diversified, providing us with ample flexibility.

我們已經看到終端市場出現上漲，供應的不確定性以及進口費用和成本的上升增加了對國內產品的需求。此外，我們自己的供應線已經過審查並且非常多樣化，為我們提供了充足的靈活性。

Overall, we believe the current trade policy discussions taking place should have a neutral to modestly positive impact on Kaiser. We will remain nimble and act diligently on these issues as trade negotiations continue to evolve.

總體而言，我們認為目前正在進行的貿易政策討論將對凱撒產生中性至適度積極的影響。隨著貿易談判的不斷發展，我們將對這些問題保持靈活並採取認真行動。

Longer term, re-shoring is a trend we've been focused on since the COVID-19 pandemic, and we're witnessing credible and tangible signs this is occurring. Our geographic footprint gives us a strong advantage. And with the largest product offering of highly engineered aluminum products in the market, we are very well-positioned to grow

從長遠來看，自新冠疫情爆發以來，我們一直關注製造業回流的趨勢，並且我們正在見證這一趨勢正在發生的可信且切實的跡象。我們的地理覆蓋範圍賦予我們強大的優勢。憑藉著市場上最豐富的高工程鋁產品，我們完全有能力實現成長

Now, let me turn the call over to Neal for more details on our first-quarter results. Neal?

現在，讓我將電話轉給尼爾，以了解有關我們第一季業績的更多詳細資訊。尼爾？

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin, I'd like to remind everyone that effective January 1, we changed our inventory valuation methodology from last in, first out, or LIFO; to weighted average cost. We believe this change better reflects the physical flow of inventory and changes in metal cost.

謝謝你，基思，大家早安。在我開始之前，我想提醒大家，從 1 月 1 日起，我們將庫存估價方法從後進先出或 LIFO 改為：加權平均成本。我們認為這項變更更能反映了庫存的實物流動和金屬成本的變化。

For comparability purposes, we have recasted our 2023 and 2024 results to reflect the weighted average cost methodology for those periods. Therefore, all year-over-year and comparisons to year-end 2024 for this presentation and going forward will be based on these recasted results. Please refer to our press release issued on April 2 for further details on this matter.

為了方便比較，我們重新調整了 2023 年和 2024 年的業績，以反映這些期間的加權平均成本方法。因此，本次演示及以後的所有同比和與 2024 年底的比較都將基於這些重算的結果。有關此事的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們 4 月 2 日發布的新聞稿。

I'll now turn to slide 9 for an overview of our shipments and conversion revenue. Conversion revenue for the first quarter was $363 million, a decrease of approximately $4 million or 1%, compared to the prior year period.

現在我將翻到第 9 張投影片來概述我們的出貨量和轉換收入。第一季的轉換收入為 3.63 億美元，與去年同期相比減少約 400 萬美元，降幅為 1%。

Looking at each of our end markets in detail, aerospace and high-strength conversion revenue totaled $121 million, down $16 million or approximately 12%, reflecting a 10% decline in shipments over last year. As indicated, during our year-end earnings call, we expected our shipments to be impacted in the near term from disruptions stemming from commercial aircraft OEM order patterns, which affected the entire supply chain.

詳細查看我們的每個終端市場，航空航太和高強度轉換收入總計 1.21 億美元，下降 1,600 萬美元或約 12%，反映出出貨量比去年下降了 10%。正如我們在年終收益電話會議上所指出的，我們預計我們的出貨量將在短期內受到商用飛機 OEM 訂單模式中斷的影響，這將影響整個供應鏈。

While commercial aircraft OEM demand was down, our business defense and space demand remained strong. Packaging conversion revenue totaled $127 million, up $9 million or approximately 8% year over year on an improved mix of higher value-added products.

儘管商用飛機 OEM 需求下降，但我們的國防和航太業務需求仍然強勁。包裝轉換收入總計 1.27 億美元，由於高附加價值產品組合的改善，比去年同期增加 900 萬美元，增幅約為 8%。

Conversely, our shipments declined 9% due to a reduction in bare products as we begin to pivot towards higher volumes of coated material, work to finish commissioning our new roll coat line, and begin qualifying products with our customers. Aside from this short-term nuance, the underlying demand for our products remains strong, and we are working closely with our customers to prioritize production and deliveries as we move through this transition.

相反，隨著我們開始轉向更大容量的塗層材料、致力於完成新卷塗生產線的調試並開始向客戶提供合格產品，由於裸片產品減少，我們的出貨量下降了 9%。除了這種短期細微差別之外，我們產品的潛在需求仍然強勁，我們正在與客戶密切合作，在轉型過程中優先考慮生產和交付。

General engineering conversion revenue for the first quarter was $84 million, up $3 million or 4% year over year on a 12% increase in shipments. Broader market factors, specifically around trade policies and their potential negative impact on import availability, created a favorable environment in this end market, driving higher demand and solid pricing. Our long-standing commitment to the delivery of high-quality Kaiser Select products, along with industry-leading service, continue to support our customers and garner a premium in the marketplace.

第一季通用工程轉換收入為 8,400 萬美元，比去年同期增加 300 萬美元，增幅為 4%，出貨量增加 12%。更廣泛的市場因素，特別是貿易政策及其對進口供應的潛在負面影響，為該終端市場創造了有利的環境，推動了更高的需求和穩定的價格。我們長期致力於提供高品質的 Kaiser Select 產品以及業界領先的服務，持續為我們的客戶提供支援並在市場上贏得溢價。

And finally, automotive conversion revenue of $32 million increased modestly by 2% year over year on a 9% decrease in shipments, primarily due to improved product mix of higher value-added products. Additional details on conversion revenue, shipments by end market applications, can be found in the appendix of this presentation.

最後，汽車改裝收入為 3,200 萬美元，年比小幅成長 2%，但出貨量下降了 9%，這主要是由於高附加價值產品的產品組合改善。有關轉換收入、終端市場應用出貨量的更多詳細信息，可在本簡報的附錄中找到。

Moving to slide 10, reported operating income for the first quarter was $41 million. After adjusting for non-run rate costs of approximately $2 million, primarily restructuring costs associated with plant and corporate staffing reductions, our adjusted operating income was $43 million, up $18 million year over year.

轉到第 10 張投影片，報告第一季的營業收入為 4,100 萬美元。在調整了約 200 萬美元的非運作成本（主要是與工廠和公司裁員相關的重組成本）後，我們的調整後營業收入為 4,300 萬美元，年增 1,800 萬美元。

Our effective tax rate for the first quarter was 25% compared to 23% in the first quarter of 2024, due primarily to the timing of certain tax credits. For the full year, 2025, we continue to expect our effective tax rate before discrete items to be in the low to mid-20% range under current tax regulations. Additionally, we anticipate that 2025 cash tax payments for federal, state, and foreign taxes will be in the $5 million to $7 million range.

我們第一季的有效稅率為 25%，而 2024 年第一季為 23%，這主要是由於某些稅收抵免的時間安排。對於 2025 年全年而言，我們仍然預計，根據現行稅法，扣除單獨項目前的有效稅率將處於 20% 的低點至中位數區間。此外，我們預計 2025 年聯邦、州和外國稅的現金稅額將在 500 萬至 700 萬美元之間。

Reported net income for the first quarter was $22 million or net income of $1.31 per diluted share, compared to net income of $18 million or $1.12 net income per diluted share in a prior year quarter. After adjusting for non-run rate charges of approximately $2 million, adjusted net income for the first quarter 2025 was $24 million or adjusted income of $1.44 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $10 million or adjusted income of $0.62 per diluted share in the prior year period.

第一季報告的淨收入為 2,200 萬美元，即每股淨收入 1.31 美元，而去年同期的淨收入為 1,800 萬美元，即每股淨收入 1.12 美元。在調整約 200 萬美元的非營運費用後，2025 年第一季的調整後淨收入為 2,400 萬美元，即調整後每股攤薄收益 1.44 美元，而去年同期的調整後淨收入為 1,000 萬美元，即調整後每股攤薄收益 0.62 美元。

Now turning to slide 11, adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $73 million, up approximately $19 million from the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of conversion revenue improved by approximately 550 basis points from the first quarter of 2024 to 20.2%.

現在翻到第 11 張投影片，第一季的調整後 EBITDA 為 7,300 萬美元，比去年同期增加約 1,900 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 佔轉換收入的百分比較 2024 年第一季提高了約 550 個基點，達到 20.2%。

The improvement in adjusted EBITDA was driven by improved pricing and mix of higher-valuated products approximating $3 million, as well as an increase in metal lag gain of about $16 million from the prior year period. The increase in the metal lag gain was driven primarily by the spike in Midwest transaction price following the announcement for increased aluminum tariffs earlier in the quarter.

調整後 EBITDA 的成長得益於約 300 萬美元的定價改進和高價值產品組合，以及較去年同期增加約 1,600 萬美元的金屬滯後收益。金屬滯後收益的增加主要是由於本季早些時候宣布提高鋁關稅後中西部交易價格的飆升。

Furthermore, we continue to drive operational improvements by optimizing efficiencies, leveraging recent capital investments, executing strategic metal sourcing initiatives, and maintaining a disciplined approach to cost management across the business.

此外，我們繼續透過優化效率、利用最近的資本投資、執行策略性金屬採購計劃以及在整個業務中保持嚴謹的成本管理方法來推動營運改善。

Now turning to a discussion of our balance sheet and cash flow. On March 31, 2025, total cash of approximately $21 million and approximately $555 million of borrowing availability on our revolving credit facility equated to a strong liquidity position of approximately $577 million. There were no borrowings under our revolving credit facility as of the quarter end, and it currently remains undrawn.

現在來討論我們的資產負債表和現金流。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，我們的循環信貸額度中的現金總額約為 2,100 萬美元，借款額度約為 5.55 億美元，相當於約 5.77 億美元的強勁流動性狀況。截至本季末，我們的循環信貸額度下沒有借款，目前仍未提領。

As a reminder, our senior notes interest costs are fixed at $48 million annually, and we have no debt maturing until 2028. As of the end of the first quarter, our net debt leverage ratio improved to 3.9 times from the 4.3 times at year end, tracking towards our target leverage ratio of 2 to 2.5 times.

提醒一下，我們的優先票據利息成本固定為每年 4,800 萬美元，我們在 2028 年之前沒有債務到期。截至第一季末，我們的淨負債槓桿比率由年底的4.3倍改善至3.9倍，正朝著2至2.5倍的目標槓桿率邁進。

Turning to capital allocation, we generated solid cash flow from operations of $57 million during the first quarter, with our capital expenditures totaling $38 million, resulting in a free cash flow of approximately $19 million. For the full year 2025, our capital expenditures are projected to be in a range of $120 million to $130 million, including some remaining costs for the fourth coating line project at Warrick and completion of our Phase VII expansion at Trentwood.

談到資本配置，我們在第一季產生了 5,700 萬美元的穩健經營現金流，我們的資本支出總額為 3,800 萬美元，從而產生了約 1,900 萬美元的自由現金流。2025 年全年，我們的資本支出預計在 1.2 億至 1.3 億美元之間，其中包括沃里克第四條塗裝線項目和特倫特伍德第七期擴建項目的部分剩餘成本。

As both projects are nearing completion or are well underway, we do not anticipate any material impact on our guidance from trade policy discussions. As a result, we expect to generate more than $100 million of free cash flow for the full year of 2025, driven by the relatively low capital expenditures and reduced working capital demand across the portfolio, which will drive further reduction in our net debt leverage.

由於這兩個項目都已接近完成或進展順利，我們預計貿易政策討論不會對我們的指導產生任何重大影響。因此，我們預計 2025 年將全年產生超過 1 億美元的自由現金流，這得益於整個投資組合相對較低的資本支出和減少的營運資本需求，這將推動我們的淨債務槓桿進一步降低。

Finally, on April 15, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per common share, reinforcing their confidence in our long-term strategy to drive increasing profitable growth and maximizing stockholder value.

最後，4 月 15 日，我們宣布董事會宣布每股普通股派發 0.77 美元的季度股息，這增強了他們對我們推動獲利成長和股東價值最大化的長期策略的信心。

And now, I'll turn the call back over to Keith to discuss our 2025 outlook. Keith?

現在，我將把電話轉回給 Keith，討論我們對 2025 年的展望。基思？

Thanks, Neal. As we look ahead to the remainder of 2025, our outlook for all of our end markets remains consistent with the outlook we provided during our February call.

謝謝，尼爾。展望 2025 年剩餘時間，我們對所有終端市場的展望與我們在 2 月電話會議上提供的展望一致。

Starting on slide 13 with aero and high-strength. The commercial aerospace supply chain is showing signs of regaining health. Large commercial aircraft production is off to a better start in 2025, with new aircraft orders and deliveries having rebounded, fueling even stronger backlogs than before.

從第 13 張幻燈片開始，具有空氣動力學和高強度。商業航空供應鏈正顯示出恢復健康的跡象。2025年，大型商用飛機生產將迎來更好的開端，新飛機訂單和交付量將反彈，從而帶來比以前更強勁的積壓訂單。

For Kaiser specifically, steady customer order flow gives us confidence that any potential impact from short-term inventory imbalances or delays of certain deliveries due to trade-related actions will have minimal impact on our performance. Activity remains steady at strong levels in our defense, space, and business jet applications, just as it has for several quarters.

具體來說，對於 Kaiser 而言，穩定的客戶訂單流讓我們有信心，短期庫存不平衡或因貿易相關行動導致的某些交貨延遲的任何潛在影響都將對我們的業績產生微乎其微的影響。正如過去幾個季度一樣，我們的國防、航太和公務機應用領域的活動仍然保持強勁穩定。

Let's move on to packaging on slide 14. We are commissioning our new roll coat line, after which we'll begin customer qualifications and the process of ramping production with the expectation of reaching full run rate levels late in the second half of 2025. This is fully in line with the expectations we shared on our February call.

讓我們繼續討論第 14 張投影片上的包裝。我們正在調試新的滾塗生產線，之後我們將開始客戶資格認證和提高產量的流程，預計在 2025 年下半年達到滿載運行水準。這完全符合我們在二月電話會議上表達的期望。

Importantly, the timing of this significant investment is highly favorable, following four consecutive quarters of constrained capacity for our products with the present North American production footprint unable to meet rising market demand. We are committed to bringing our new capacity online as quickly as possible to meet our customers' growing needs.

重要的是，這項重大投資的時機非常有利，因為我們的產品產能已連續四個季度受到限制，目前的北美生產基地無法滿足不斷增長的市場需求。我們致力於盡快上線新產能，以滿足客戶日益增長的需求。

Turning now to general engineering on slide 15. We saw strong momentum in general engineering demand throughout the first quarter. In our long products, we remain encouraged by the steady improvements we are seeing in our order books, even with inventories in the supply chain remaining at historic low levels.

現在轉到投影片 15 上的一般工程。我們看到整個第一季一般工程需求勢頭強勁。在我們的長材產品中，儘管供應鏈中的庫存仍處於歷史低位，但我們對訂單量的穩定改善仍然感到鼓舞。

For heat-treated sheet and plate products, we have been benefiting from trade-related uncertainty, which is driving demand toward Kaiser and other domestic supply. Additionally, we expect the completion of our Phase VII expansion project at our Trentwood rolling mill in the second half of this year will enable us to meet the growing needs of our customers for general engineering heat-treated plate demand well into the future.

對於熱處理薄板和板材產品，我們一直受益於與貿易相關的不確定性，這推動了對凱撒和其他國內供應的需求。此外，我們預計特倫特伍德軋機廠第七期擴建工程將於今年下半年完工，這將使我們能夠滿足客戶未來對通用工程熱處理板日益增長的需求。

Finally, turning to automotive on slide 16. We remain well-positioned in automotive. While it represents a smaller portion of our overall business, our strength lies in the specific platforms we serve, which are primarily SUVs and light truck in-use applications. Our geographic footprint and alignment with these high-demand segments support ongoing stability and resilience in this end market, despite the expectation for North American industry production to be flat to down modestly in 2025 versus last year.

最後，轉到第 16 張投影片上的汽車部分。我們在汽車領域仍然佔據有利地位。雖然它只占我們整體業務的一小部分，但我們的優勢在於我們服務的特定平台，主要是 SUV 和輕型卡車在用應用。儘管預計 2025 年北美工業產量將與去年持平或略有下降，但我們的地理覆蓋範圍以及與這些高需求細分市場的一致性支持了這個終端市場的持續穩定性和彈性。

Now turning to our summary outlook on slide 17. Given the recent market volatility, it's important to remind you of our philosophy and how we manage our company. First, we manage for the long-term, which means quarterly results may be lumpy at times and progress may accelerate or pause as determined by market conditions and our resulting actions.

現在轉到第 17 張投影片上的總結展望。鑑於最近的市場波動，有必要提醒您我們的理念以及我們如何管理公司。首先，我們著眼於長期管理，這意味著季度業績有時可能會不穩定，進展可能會加速或暫停，這取決於市場狀況和我們採取的行動。

Through it all, we will manage as we always have with a long-term strategic focus on our served end markets with differentiated products and services that meet or exceed the needs of our customers. Second, we maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation to secure and improve our position with our customers to meet their growing needs and deliver long-term solid returns for our shareholders.

在整個過程中，我們將一如既往地以長期策略重點關注我們所服務的終端市場，提供滿足或超越客戶需求的差異化產品和服務。其次，我們保持嚴謹的資本配置方式，以確保和改善我們與客戶的地位，滿足他們日益增長的需求，並為我們的股東帶來長期穩健的回報。

And finally, we work diligently to minimize the risk to the overall business in any environment with a mantra that we manage for, not through, economic diversity, which is the driving force for our focus on cost, preferred market positions, and financial strength with dynamic liquidity management. With that, our market outlook for 2025 remains unchanged at this time.

最後，我們勤勉地在任何環境下將整體業務面臨的風險降至最低，我們的宗旨是“為了經濟多樣性而管理，而不是通過經濟多樣性來管理”，這是我們關注成本、優先市場地位和財務實力以及動態流動性管理的驅動力。因此，我們對 2025 年的市場展望目前保持不變。

We continue to project 5% to 10% growth year over year in conversion revenue for 2025. Additionally, we are raising our full-year 2025 EBITDA expectations 5% to 10% above our recasted 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $241 million, reiterating that earnings in the second half of the year, excluding the metal lag tailwind in Q1, will be growing as our new investments come online.

我們繼續預測 2025 年轉換收入將年增 5% 至 10%。此外，我們將 2025 年全年 EBITDA 預期上調 5% 至 10%，較 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 2.41 億美元高出 5%，並重申隨著新投資的投入，下半年的收益（不包括第一季度的金屬滯後順風）將會增長。

With that, I will now open the call to any questions you may have. Operator?

現在，我將開始回答大家可能提出的任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

I have questions on the end markets, but first I want to ask about margins and maybe the guidance before that. So I guess, first of all, excluding the metal lags, what drove the quarter-on-quarter margin progression? Is this a matter of fixed cost absorption?

我對終端市場有一些疑問，但首先我想問一下利潤率以及之前的指導。因此我想，首先，排除金屬滯後因素，是什麼推動了季度季比利潤率的成長？這是固定成本吸收的問題嗎？

And then for the guidance, if we think about the midpoint of the value-added revenue and EBITDA guidance built up, I guess 7.5% at the midpoint, that would imply year-on-year flat margins at 16.5%, and then a step down, I guess, quarter on quarter into the back half of the year. So how should we think about the cadence and the trajectory of the, I guess, in terms of margins through the balance of the year?

然後對於指導，如果我們考慮增值收入和 EBITDA 指導的中點，我猜中點是 7.5%，這意味著利潤率同比持平於 16.5%，然後我猜，下半年的季度環比會下降。那麼，就今年的利潤率而言，我們該如何看待節奏和軌跡呢？

So I think one of the things we want to make pretty clear on our outlook and guidance, we knew that we had made an inventory change, a way that we look at that. And the reasons we did that is, through an analysis, we really felt that weighted average cost, it really better reflected the management of inventory physically through our business and a more timely recognition of market price changes.

因此，我認為，我們想要明確說明我們的展望和指導的一件事是，我們知道我們已經做出了庫存變更，這是我們看待這個問題的方式。我們這樣做的原因是，透過分析，我們確實認為加權平均成本確實更好地反映了我們業務中庫存的管理，並且更及時地識別市場價格的變化。

And we recasted that, and our recasted numbers really helped prove that analysis out. And you'll see the Q -- in the Q comparison of how had we stayed on LIFO, what the numbers would have looked like, especially in the first quarter, as related to what we proved. So that was the change that took place.

我們對此進行了重新計算，重新計算後的數字確實有助於證明這項分析是正確的。您將在 Q 比較中看到，如果我們繼續採用後進先出法，數據會是什麼樣子，特別是在第一季度，這與我們證明的情況有關。這就是發生的變化。

And metal just happened to move in that quarter. And the average over that period was relatively high, and we had a tailwind on that. And so we wanted to call that out and say, okay, that transpired.

而金屬恰好在那個季度出現波動。那段時期的平均水平相對較高，我們在這方面處於順風狀態。所以我們想指出這一點並說，好吧，事情已經發生了。

But getting back to the core part of the business, when you're looking at it, the quarter came in as we expected and perhaps a little better than we expected, given the challenges that took place with all the tariff discussions and all this.

但回到業務的核心部分，當你看到它時，本季度的表現符合我們的預期，甚至可能比我們預期的要好一些，考慮到所有關稅討論和所有這些方面帶來的挑戰。

And just to give you a little bit of insight into that, when President Trump came out with the full-blown tariffs, we took a deep dive in the whole company. And I think those were the -- could be the worst case at the time.

為了讓你們對此有一點了解，當川普總統推出全面關稅時，我們對整個公司進行了深入研究。我認為這些可能是當時最糟糕的情況。

And we really convinced ourselves that our supply chain is well positioned. We have flexibility; most of our business, as we said, was focused on North America. And so that gave us a lot of confidence in that whatever we're going through right here is really going to be neutral to positive for Kaiser Aluminum.

我們確實確信我們的供應鏈處於良好位置。我們有靈活性；正如我們所說，我們的大部分業務都集中在北美。因此，這給了我們很大的信心，無論我們現在經歷什麼，對凱撒鋁業來說都將是中性甚至正面的影響。

And then we saw that in the order structure that took place during the quarter. We started to see business start to navigate our way where historically it may have gone to imports and other things. So overall, we believe that that situation bodes well for Kaiser.

然後我們在本季度的訂單結構中看到了這一點。我們開始看到業務開始朝著我們想要的方向發展，而過去，業務可能都流向了進口和其他領域。因此總體而言，我們認為這種情況對凱撒來說是個好兆頭。

Now, from a margin perspective, Bill, if you go back and you look -- and we stated that the journey was recovering back to the mid-20%s of our business, the mid-20% margin. And we're at about 16.5% now. Again, we haven't initiated the investments yet. They are just coming online. And as we start to deploy those, the crucibles of what we said, the returning back to that, still hold true.

現在，比爾，從利潤率的角度來看，如果你回頭看看——我們說過，我們的業務正在恢復到 20% 左右，利潤率也達到 20% 左右。目前這一比例約為 16.5%。再說一次，我們還沒有開始投資。他們剛剛上線。當我們開始部署這些措施時，我們所說的嚴峻考驗，即回歸到這一點，仍然適用。

So we see 300 to 400 basis points for the entire business coming up once we hit that full run rate. We're starting to see metal -- the metal supply situation that we expected to deliver 150 to 200 basis points. That started to normalize and recover into the first quarter with metal spreads that they were. So that's still on track.

因此，一旦我們達到滿載運行率，我們預計整個業務的利潤率將上升 300 到 400 個基點。我們開始看到金屬——我們預計金屬供應情況將上漲 150 至 200 個基點。這種情況在第一季開始恢復正常，並隨著金屬價差的回升而恢復。所以一切仍在正常進行中。

And then we'll start getting back into the aerospace recovery with the new investment and then back to getting another additional 100 to 200 basis points on getting back the efficiencies in the operation. So it still holds true.

然後，我們將透過新的投資重新進入航太業的復甦階段，然後再獲得額外的 100 到 200 個基點來恢復營運效率。所以它仍然成立。

We're still focused on delivering up to the mid-20%s -- mid to high 20%s on the margin. On the result -- on the pace of that, right now, we look at to be in the 16% to 17%, some type, margin, but that could expedite itself as soon as we deliver these investments and start supplying that business.

我們仍然致力於實現 20% 左右的利潤率——20% 左右到 20% 左右的高利潤率。就結果而言 — — 就目前的速度而言，我們預計利潤率在 16% 到 17% 之間，但一旦我們進行這些投資並開始為該業務提供服務，這一速度就會加快。

I'd like to walk through some of the end markets here, and maybe starting with packaging. And I think you already were alluding to some of this. But I guess, how should we think about the shipments? When we think about the first quarter being down, I think you talked about deprioritizing bare products and focusing on coated.

我想介紹這裡的一些終端市場，也許從包裝開始。我認為您已經提到了其中的一些內容。但我想，我們該如何考慮出貨呢？當我們想到第一季業績下滑時，我想您談到了降低裸露產品的優先順序並專注於塗層產品。

But we assume a similar focus on coated and value-added continuing in the second quarter and then into the back half of the year. And I guess for this, I think you might have mentioned, but the 300 to 400 basis point, does this include the new packaging contracts kicking in during, of course, this year and the next year?

但我們預計，第二季以及下半年仍將重點關注塗層和增值產品。我想您可能已經提到過這一點，但是 300 到 400 個基點，這是否包括今年和明年生效的新包裝合約？

It will, Bill; and it really starts to accelerate in 2026. So we have new contracts, but as you know, we're finalizing a couple of major contracts. We've made good progress during the quarter in bringing those to fruition.

會的，比爾；而這趨勢在 2026 年才真正開始加速。因此，我們有新的合同，但正如你所知，我們正在敲定幾個主要合約。本季度我們在實現這些目標方面取得了良好進展。

But when we start delivering, you will start to see -- and as our outlook has given, we've stated some pretty hefty increases in our conversion revenue. And you will really start to see that ramping up in the second half of the year.

但是當我們開始交付時，您將開始看到 - 正如我們的展望所示，我們的轉換收入已經大幅增加。您將在今年下半年真正開始看到這種趨勢的加速。

We had pretty good improvement from the conversion revenue in the first quarter, and that's on existing contracts and really just starting to gravitate to more in the first quarter of the higher margin coated. That really will start to come online in the second half.

我們第一季的轉換收入有了相當大的提升，這是基於現有合約的，而且實際上在第一季我們才剛開始向更高的利潤率靠攏。這一點將在下半年真正開始顯現。

We talked in the second quarter. It's really going to be about proving the line, getting those customer qualifications, and then, as quick as possible, start to delivering product to customers. And so we're confident of that demand. We're confident of the need.

我們在第二季進行了交談。這實際上是為了驗證生產線，獲得客戶資格，然後儘快開始向客戶交付產品。因此我們對這需求充滿信心。我們確信這項需求。

We're not meeting the needs of those customers yet. We want to hit that, and we will. But you'll start seeing that ramp up in the second half very strongly as regards to packaging.

我們尚未滿足這些客戶的需求。我們想要實現這個目標，而且我們一定會實現。但你會看到下半年包裝產業的成長勢頭非常強勁。

And then maybe -- thinking about auto real quick, some of the third parties are talking about light auto production down high single digits. I know you're on certain platforms. But I guess, what gives you confidence that the trucks and SUVs can remain somewhat insulated?

然後也許——快速思考一下汽車，一些第三方正在談論輕型汽車產量下降個位數。我知道你在某些平台。但我想，是什麼讓您有信心卡車和 SUV 能夠保持一定的隔熱效果？

And maybe if there is further weakness or weaker than you're expecting, what downside protection do you have in some of your auto contracts? And I guess, are there any in maybe general engineering or other ones too that there's some broader weakness?

如果出現進一步的疲軟或比您預期的更疲軟的情況，那麼您在某些汽車合約中會有哪些下行保護措施？我想，在一般工程或其他領域中是否存在一些更廣泛的弱點？

Yeah. So automotive is pretty interesting for us, Bill. As I said, we're on select programs, platforms; and you could take a look at the headlines that have been taking place. So we're really across all those platforms, especially around light trucks and SUVs.

是的。所以，汽車對我們來說非常有趣，比爾。正如我所說，我們正在選擇程式和平台；你可以看看最近發生的新聞頭條。所以我們確實涉及所有這些平台，特別是輕型卡車和 SUV。

And while you may hear a certain manufacturer going down or slowing down somewhat, you see the other two competitors perhaps strengthening shipments on light trucks and adding capacity. So we have strong positions in all of those, and the parts that we supply really go across each one of those platforms.

雖然您可能聽說某家製造商的產量有所下降或放緩，但您會看到其他兩家競爭對手可能會加強輕型卡車的出貨量並增加產能。因此，我們在所有這些領域都佔據強勢地位，而且我們供應的零件確實涵蓋了每一個平台。

And some of these are new platforms for us, Bill. So that's what gives us confidence in our outlook, even knowing that the demand may soften through the year.

其中一些對我們來說都是新的平台，比爾。因此，儘管我們知道今年的需求可能會減弱，但我們仍然對我們的前景充滿信心。

And the other thing I'll add is that on the programs, I think the last note or statistic I saw was we're still about 70% to 80% of the demand is on light trucks and SUVs. And so even if it comes down, we're going to come down on that.

我要補充的另一件事是，關於這些項目，我認為我看到的最後一份說明或統計數據是，我們仍然有大約 70% 到 80% 的需求來自輕型卡車和 SUV。所以，即使價格下降，我們也會採取相應措施。

The other components that we have that are more broad-based, Bill, they're like on anti-lock brake systems, the valves and things for those and structural components. Every car out there, whether it's an EV or an ICE vehicle, is going to have anti-lock brake systems.

比爾，我們擁有的其他組件應用範圍更為廣泛，例如防鎖死煞車系統、閥門以及用於這些系統和結構部件的東西。每輛車，無論是電動車還是內燃機汽車，都配備防鎖死煞車系統。

So the programs that we're on, we could go down if the overall demand decreased. But with the -- if you recall, we reset prices for these products, and that's coming through in our numbers in Q1. And we have new programs that are launching.

因此，如果整體需求下降，我們正在實施的專案可能會減少。但是——如果您還記得的話，我們重新設定了這些產品的價格，這在第一季的數據中得到了體現。我們還有一些新項目正在啟動。

So I feel pretty confident about -- we should be able to weather the storm. A reminder to you and all our others, the auto is our smallest -- it's about 8% of our business. So we know that there's some -- still would be some impact, but the impact would be relatively small on us.

所以我非常有信心——我們應該能夠渡過難關。提醒您和我們所有的其他人，汽車業務是我們最小的業務——約占我們業務的 8%。所以我們知道還是會有一些影響，但對我們的影響相對較小。

And you brought up a good comment about general engineering. I'm actually feeling pretty bullish about our position on general engineering. I was a little concerned when inventory levels started to move down, but even with -- and sometimes we can see a month-to-month change with really high metal, customers may try to get in orders that have a lower metal cost.

您對通用工程提出了很好的評論。事實上，我對我們在通用工程領域的地位非常樂觀。當庫存水準開始下降時，我有點擔心，但即使如此——有時我們可以看到金屬價格逐月變化非常高，客戶仍可能會嘗試訂購金屬成本較低的訂單。

So you may see some lumpiness in month over month, but I've been tracking all of our orders on a daily basis. And the order rate continues to be good. I won't say it's super strong. We set it at low inventories, but we're really positioned well in this market.

因此，您可能會看到月復一月的波動，但我一直在每天追蹤我們所有的訂單。且訂單率持續保持良好。我不會說它超級強大。我們的庫存量較低，但我們在這個市場上的定位確實很好。

We bring a broad product offering to this market. We mainly service it through service centers and some select customers, right, through like semiconductor and other type of applications. And we're seeing some pretty good green shoots starting to come from that side of the business as well.

我們為這個市場提供了廣泛的產品。我們主要透過服務中心和一些特定客戶為其提供服務，例如透過半導體和其他類型的應用。我們也看到該業務領域開始出現一些相當不錯的復甦跡象。

And so with what's taking place with the trade policy discussions, I actually think it's a positive multiplier for Kaiser Aluminum on the general engineering side of the business.

因此，鑑於貿易政策討論的進展，我實際上認為這對凱撒鋁業公司在業務的一般工程方面來說是一個積極的乘數。

So -- and the last thing. I know you didn't specifically ask it, but on the aerospace side, we said in our February outlook that we were going to see the first half probably a little slower because of the inventory and supply chain issues that some of the folks were having. That's playing out for us as we expected, but we also see production beginning to ramp back up.

那麼——最後一件事。我知道您沒有特別問這個問題，但在航空航太方面，我們在 2 月的展望中表示，由於部分公司遇到的庫存和供應鏈問題，上半年的業績可能會稍微慢一些。這一切正如我們預期的那樣，但我們也看到產量開始回升。

They're moving toward more build rates. So it's in line, and that's the reason we reiterated our outlook for the full year. So overall, I would have to say we came out with a great quarter from my perspective, given the market environment we're in; and then we raised expectations for the full year beyond that.

他們正在努力提高建設率。所以這是符合預期的，這就是我們重申全年展望的原因。所以總的來說，從我的角度來看，考慮到我們所處的市場環境，我們本季的業績表現非常出色；然後我們又提高了全年的預期。

So in the volatile world that we're in right now, I'm feeling pretty good about where our business currently lies.

因此，在我們現在所處的動盪世界中，我對我們的業務現狀感到非常滿意。

Yeah. Actually, my last question was on aero, and I think you largely answered it. But just to be clear, I guess, where do you think we stand in the destocking cycle, in particular, within commercial? Sounds like your other three parts of your aerospace are tracking at least the plan. Just trying to get a sense for how you think about the trajectory and maybe exit rate this year on the aerospace side.

是的。實際上，我的最後一個問題是關於航空的，我想你基本上回答了這個問題。但我想明確一點，您認為我們在去庫存週期中處於什麼位置，特別是在商業領域？聽起來你們航空航天部門的其他三個部分至少正在遵循這個計劃。只是想了解一下您對今年航空航天方面的軌跡和退出率的看法。

Yeah. Well, the great thing that's going on, Bill -- and it's data-driven. I said in my comments. So we're starting to see the build rates grow from where they were last year, and this is across both major airframers here.

是的。嗯，比爾，正在發生的偉大的事情——它是數據驅動的。我在我的評論中說過。因此，我們開始看到製造率較去年同期有所增長，而且這涉及兩家主要的飛機製造商。

It's tracking as we expected. So for instance, on Boeing, they're really moving toward the 38 rate. I think in Kelly's comments, he talked about moving to 42 before the end of the year, and then moving to 47 as quick as they can next year. So that's in alignment with where we saw things beginning to ramp back up.

一切正如我們預期的那樣。以波音公司為例，他們實際上正朝著 38% 的利率邁進。我認為在凱利的評論中，他談到了在今年年底之前升至 42 位，然後明年盡快升至 47 位。這與我們看到的情況開始回升是一致的。

And so I think we're probably about midway through that destocking. We expect to see continued orders. I think another thing from a Kaiser perspective, we are contracts. We try to manage for the minimums and maximums that we provide. So we feel pretty confident about where we are on that, and so I think we're going down the path.

所以我認為我們可能正處於去庫存的中期。我們期望看到持續的訂單。我認為從凱撒的角度來看另一件事，我們是合約。我們盡力管理我們所提供的最低限度和最高限度。因此，我們對自己在這方面的進展非常有信心，而且我認為我們正在沿著這條道路前進。

As soon as those ramp rates begin to come back, I think you're going to see the supply chain get healthier as fast as they can ramp.

一旦這些產量提升率開始回升，我認為你會看到供應鏈以最快的速度變得更健康。

Good luck navigating this challenging macro and micro, and we'll look forward to catching up soon.

祝您好運，順利應對這一具有挑戰性的宏觀和微觀問題，我們期待很快趕上。

Okay. Thanks, Bill. Appreciate the insight.

好的。謝謝，比爾。感謝您的見解。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Mr. Harvey, I'm seeing no other questions. I'll turn the floor back to you for final comments.

謝謝。（操作員指示）哈維先生，我沒有其他問題。我將把最後的發言權交還給您。

Thank you, operator. We remain well positioned to deliver on our strategic growth plan following the largest investment cycle in our recent history. We believe strengthening market position, persistent focus on reducing costs, and our steady deleveraging are going to drive improved value for all of our stakeholders.

謝謝您，接線生。在我們經歷了近代史上最大的投資週期之後，我們仍處於有利地位，可以實現我們的策略成長計畫。我們相信，加強市場地位、持續關注降低成本以及穩步去槓桿將為所有利害關係人帶來更高的價值。

We thank you for your interest in Kaiser Aluminum and look forward to sharing our progress with you later this summer on our second quarter call. Goodbye.

感謝您對凱撒鋁業的關注，並期待在今年夏天晚些時候的第二季電話會議上與您分享我們的進展。再見。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。