Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Kaiser Aluminum Corporation third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加凱撒鋁業公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kim Orlando with ADDO Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹您的主持人、來自 ADDO 投資者關係部門的 Kim Orlando。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Kaiser Aluminum's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. If you have not seen a copy of our earnings release, please visit the Investor Relations page on our website at kaiseraluminum.com. We have also posted a PDF version of the slide presentation for this call.

大家早安，歡迎參加凱撒鋁業 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。如果您尚未看到我們的收益報告副本，請造訪我們網站 kaiseraluminum.com 上的投資者關係頁面。我們也發布了本次電話會議投影片簡報的 PDF 版本。

Joining me on the call today are President and Chief Executive Officer, Keith Harvey; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Neal West.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Keith Harvey；以及執行副總裁兼財務長尼爾·韋斯特 (Neal West)。

Before we begin, I'd like to refer you to the first four slides of our presentation and remind you that the statements made by management and the information contained in this presentation that constitute forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations. For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's earnings release and reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the full year ended December 31, 2023. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements to conform the statement to actual results or changes in the company's expectations.

在我們開始之前，我想請您看一下我們簡報的前四張投影片，並提醒您，管理階層所作的陳述和本簡報中包含的構成前瞻性陳述的資訊均基於管理階層目前的預期。有關可能導致結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的具體風險因素的摘要，請參閱本公司的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告，包括本公司截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的全年 10-K 表年度報告。本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述以使該陳述符合實際結果或公司預期變化的責任。

In addition, we have included non-GAAP financial information in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release and in the appendix of the presentation. Reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP financial measures are not provided because certain items required for such reconciliations are outside of our control and/or cannot be reasonably predicted or provided without unreasonable effort. Any reference to EBITDA and our discussion today means adjusted EBITDA, which excludes non-run rate items for which we have provided reconciliations in the appendix.

此外，我們在討論中也納入了非公認會計準則財務資訊。與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表已包含在收益報告和簡報的附錄中。未提供某些前瞻性非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，因為此類對賬所需的某些項目超出了我們的控制範圍和/或無法合理預測，或在不付出不合理努力的情況下提供。任何對 EBITDA 的提及和我們今天的討論均指調整後的 EBITDA，其中不包括我們在附錄中提供對帳的非運行率項目。

Further, slide 5 contains definitions of terms and measures that will be commonly used throughout today's presentation. At the conclusion of the company's presentation, we will open the call for questions.

此外，投影片 5 包含在今天的簡報中常用的術語和措施的定義。在公司演示結束時，我們將開始提問。

I would now like to turn the call over to Keith Harvey. Keith?

現在我想將電話轉給基斯·哈維。基思？

Thanks, Kim, and thank you all for joining us for a review of our third-quarter 2024 results.

謝謝，Kim，謝謝大家加入我們，回顧我們的 2024 年第三季業績。

Turning to slide 7. Our business performed largely in line with our expectations in the third quarter, as we continue to execute against our strategy to drive long-term sustainable growth and margin expansion for the company. We generated approximately $50 million of EBITDA in the quarter, which includes an approximate $4 million GAAP LIFO expense, which Neal will discuss in a few moments.

翻到幻燈片 7。由於我們持續執行策略，推動公司長期可持續成長和利潤率擴大，因此我們的業務在第三季的表現基本上符合我們的預期。我們在本季度創造了約 5000 萬美元的 EBITDA，其中包括約 400 萬美元的 GAAP LIFO 費用，Neal 稍後將對此進行討論。

As we move into our fourth quarter, we are on track to meet our conversion revenue outlook for the year as well as our outlook for year-over-year margin expansion. The long-term outlook for the markets we serve remains robust, the products we provide are industry-leading and we are continuing our disciplined approach in investing capital to meet the needs of our customers and to deliver profitable growth and margin expansion to our shareholders. We believe we have laid the foundation for continued strong progress towards these goals next year and for many years to come.

隨著進入第四季度，我們有望實現今年的轉換收入預期以及利潤率同比增長的預期。我們所服務的市場的長期前景仍然強勁，我們提供的產品處於行業領先地位，我們將繼續採取嚴謹的方式進行資本投資，以滿足客戶的需求，並為股東帶來盈利增長和利潤擴大。我們相信，我們為明年以及未來許多年繼續大力實現這些目標奠定了基礎。

I'll now turn the floor over to Neal to discuss the quarter in more detail, and then I'll be back to discuss our outlook. Neal?

現在我將把發言權交給尼爾來更詳細地討論本季的情況，然後我會回來討論我們的展望。尼爾？

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 9 with an overview of our shipments and conversion revenue.

謝謝你，基思，大家早安。我將從第 9 張投影片開始概述我們的出貨量和轉換收入。

Conversion revenue for the third quarter was $362 million, an increase of $5 million or 1% compared to the prior year period. Looking at each of our end markets in detail, aero and high strength conversion revenue totaled $128 million in the third quarter of 2024, a 5% decline on a 7% decrease in shipments over the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting broader supply chain challenges in the market. Packaging conversion revenue was $128 million, an increase of 9% year-over-year on improved mix and pricing. While shipments declined 2%, as we work to stabilize our production levels following the second quarter outage and destocking period earlier this year, underlying demand remained strong, as reflected in our results. General engineering products conversion revenue was $76 million, a 1% increase year-over-year on a 5% increase in shipments, pricing remained relatively stable despite uneven demand and import pressures. And finally, automotive conversion revenue was $29 million, up 3% compared to the third quarter of 2023 on a 2% decline in shipments due primarily to higher pricing and improved product mix. Additional details on conversion revenue and shipments by end market applications can be found in the appendix of this presentation.

第三季的轉換收入為 3.62 億美元，比去年同期增加 500 萬美元，增幅為 1%。詳細查看我們的每個終端市場，2024 年第三季航空和高強度轉換收入總計 1.28 億美元，比去年同期出貨量下降 7%，下降 5%，主要反映了市場中更廣泛的供應鏈挑戰。包裝轉換收入為 1.28 億美元，由於產品組合和定價的改善，較去年同期成長 9%。儘管出貨量下降了 2%，但由於我們努力在今年稍早第二季停產和去庫存期後穩定生產水平，因此潛在需求依然強勁，這反映在我們的業績中。通用工程產品轉換收入為 7,600 萬美元，年增 1%，出貨量成長 5%，儘管需求不均衡和進口壓力，但價格保持相對穩定。最後，汽車改裝收入為 2,900 萬美元，與 2023 年第三季相比成長 3%，出貨量下降 2%，主要原因是價格上漲和產品組合改善。有關轉換收入和終端市場應用出貨量的更多詳細信息，可在本簡報的附錄中找到。

Now moving to slide 10. Reported operating income for the third quarter of 2024 was $17 million, which includes a $2 million increase in depreciation and amortization expense over the third quarter of 2023. After adjusting for non-run rate charges of approximately $4 million related to an increase in legacy environmental reserves at our Newark facility, our adjusted operating income was relatively stable year-over-year at $21 million.

現在轉到第 10 張投影片。2024 年第三季的報告營業收入為 1,700 萬美元，其中包括比 2023 年第三季增加 200 萬美元的折舊和攤提費用。在調整與我們紐瓦克工廠遺留環境儲備增加相關的約 400 萬美元的非運作費用後，我們的調整後營業收入與去年同期相比相對穩定，為 2,100 萬美元。

Our effective tax rate continues to be in the low- to mid-20% range under current tax regulations. We anticipate that our 2024 cash taxes for foreign and state taxes will be in the $4 million to $5 million range with no US federal cash tax until we consume our federal NOLs, which at the year-end of 2023 were $101 million.

根據現行稅法，我們的有效稅率仍然處於 20% 的低至中範圍內。我們預計，2024 年我們的外國稅和州稅現金稅將在 400 萬至 500 萬美元之間，在我們消耗聯邦淨營運利潤（2023 年底為 1.01 億美元）之前，無需繳納美國聯邦現金稅。

Reported net income in the third quarter 2024 was $12 million or $0.74 per diluted share compared to net income of $5 million or $0.34 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. After adjusting for approximately $4 million of non-run rate charges previously mentioned and approximately $9 million of nonoperating income related to legacy land sales and settlements of prior year insurance claims, adjusted net income for the third quarter 2024 was $8 million or $0.51 per diluted share compared to adjusted net income of $7 million or $0.46 per diluted share in the prior year quarter.

2024 年第三季報告的淨收入為 1,200 萬美元或每股攤薄收入 0.74 美元，而去年同期的淨收入為 500 萬美元或每股攤薄收入 0.34 美元。在調整前面提到的約 400 萬美元的非營業費用以及與遺留土地銷售和上年保險索賠結算相關的約 900 萬美元的非營業收入後，2024 年第三季度的調整後淨收入為 800 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.51 美元，而去年同期的調整後淨收入為 700 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.51 美元，而去年同期的調整後淨收入為 700 萬美元或每股攤薄收益。

Now turning to slide 11. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $50 million, up approximately $2 million or 4% from the prior year period. EBITDA margin for the quarter was 13.9%, up from 13.3% in the prior year period. The increase in adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA margin was driven primarily by higher conversion revenue, partially offset by an increase in energy costs and a higher GAAP LIFO charge.

現在翻到第 11 張投影片。本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,000 萬美元，較去年同期增加約 200 萬美元，增幅為 4%。本季的 EBITDA 利潤率為 13.9%，高於去年同期的 13.3%。調整後的 EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率的成長主要得益於轉換收入的提高，但被能源成本的增加和 GAAP LIFO 費用的提高部分抵消。

As noted by Keith, net income and adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter were negatively impacted by a GAAP LIFO charge of approximately $4 million. This quarter's LIFO charge was primarily attributed to valuing at quarter end higher inventory pounds on hand at the lower metal and inventory costs we had at the beginning of the quarter. Our higher inventory levels were primarily driven by the strong customer demand we've experienced for our packaging products.

正如 Keith 所指出的，第三季的淨收入和調整後 EBITDA 受到約 400 萬美元的 GAAP LIFO 費用的負面影響。本季的後進先出費用主要歸因於季度末庫存重量的增加，而季度初的金屬和庫存成本較低。我們庫存水準的提高主要是由於客戶對我們的包裝產品的強勁需求。

As it is difficult to forecast changes in future market-driven metal costs, along with changes in the mix of our ending inventory, we provide our outlook for adjusted EBITDA based on projected sell-through unit costs without the impact of GAAP LIFO accounting. We will continue to call out the GAAP LIFO accounting adjustments when we present our actual quarterly performance.

由於很難預測未來市場驅動的金屬成本的變化，以及我們的期末庫存組合的變化，我們根據預期的銷售單位成本（不受 GAAP LIFO 會計的影響）提供了調整後的 EBITDA 前景。當我們展示實際季度業績時，我們將繼續提及 GAAP LIFO 會計調整。

Now turning to a discussion of our balance sheet and cash flow. On September 30, 2024, total cash of approximately $46 million and approximately $549 million of borrowing availability in our revolving credit facility provided total liquidity of approximately $595 million. There were no borrowings under our revolving credit facility during and as of quarter end and it remains undrawn. As of September 30, 2024, our net debt leverage ratio was 4.6x against our target leverage ratio of 2x to 2.5x.

現在來討論我們的資產負債表和現金流。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的循環信貸安排中的總現金約為 4,600 萬美元，可用借款額度約為 5.49 億美元，總流動性約為 5.95 億美元。在季度末和季度末，我們的循環信貸安排下沒有借款，並且仍未提取。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的淨負債槓桿率為 4.6 倍，而我們的目標槓桿率為 2 倍至 2.5 倍。

Turning to capital allocation. Capital expenditures for the third quarter totaled $51 million, primarily attributed to continuing investment in our fourth coating line project at our Warrick facility. Our full year 2024 capital expenditures are now forecasted to be in the range of $180 million to $190 million. Elevated capital expenditures this year primarily reflect the work we have been doing at our Warrick facility. We expect our future annual capital expenditures to be significantly lower and more in line with our prior year's historical averages.

轉向資本配置。第三季的資本支出總計 5,100 萬美元，主要歸因於對我們沃里克工廠第四條塗層生產線項目的持續投資。我們預計 2024 年全年資本支出將在 1.8 億美元至 1.9 億美元之間。今年資本支出的增加主要反映了我們在沃里克工廠所做的工作。我們預計未來年度資本支出將大幅下降，並更接近前一年的歷史平均值。

Finally, on October 15, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per common share, reflecting the confidence our board and management team have in our strategy and improve our profitability, reduce our net debt leverage ratio and increase stockholder value.

最後，10 月 15 日，我們宣布董事會宣布每股普通股 0.77 美元的季度股息，這反映了董事會和管理團隊對我們的策略的信心，並提高了我們的獲利能力，降低了我們的淨債務槓桿率並提高了股東價值。

And now I'll turn the call back over to Keith to discuss our outlook. Keith?

現在我將把電話轉回給 Keith，討論我們的前景。基思？

Thanks, Neal. Now I'll turn to our outlook. Beginning with aerospace on slide 13. We remain on track to meet the outlook I provided last quarter for aerospace and high strength shipments and conversion revenue. The market drivers for commercial aircraft production remain very healthy as OEMs hold years of aircraft backlog. Passenger traffic stays very strong and planes remain full.

謝謝，尼爾。現在我來談談我們的展望。從幻燈片 13 上的航空航天開始。我們仍有望實現我上個季度提出的航空航太和高強度材料出貨量和轉換收入的預期。由於原始設備製造商多年積壓飛機訂單，商用飛機生產的市場驅動力仍然非常健康。客運量依然強勁，飛機仍滿載。

As we plan for 2025, we expect aircraft production rates to build momentum throughout the year and complement our steady offerings in defense, space, business jet and other industrial application product categories, all of which remain very healthy. I expect our aerospace and high strength end markets will remain strong for Kaiser for years to come. We are closely monitoring the negotiation and outcome between Boeing and Machinist Union. The timing of this resolution may have a short-term impact on demand and shipments.

在我們規劃 2025 年的過程中，我們預計飛機生產率將在全年保持強勁勢頭，並補充我們在國防、航太、公務機和其他工業應用產品類別中的穩定供應，所有這些產品類別都保持著非常健康的成長勢頭。我預計，未來幾年，我們的航空航太和高強度終端市場仍將為 Kaiser 保持強勁發展勢頭。我們正在密切關注波音公司與機械師工會之間的談判和結果。該決議的時機可能會對需求和出貨量產生短期影響。

Now turning to packaging on slide 14. I'd like to highlight the performance at our Warrick facility on top of the strong demand in the packaging end market following a period of destocking, which ended earlier this year. Our shipment levels rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, and the momentum continues into the fourth quarter of this year. The momentum in packaging comes at an ideal time. As we near the completion of our fourth coating line, which will shift approximately 25% of our mix to higher-margin coated products while also improving our throughput.

現在轉到第 14 張投影片上的包裝。我想重點介紹我們沃里克工廠的業績，以及今年早些時候結束的去庫存期之後包裝終端市場的強勁需求。我們的出貨量連續四個季度上升，這股勢頭持續到今年第四季。包裝產業的蓬勃發展恰逢其時。我們的第四條塗層生產線即將完工，這將使我們約25%的產品轉向利潤率更高的塗層產品，同時也提高我們的產量。

The coating line remains a key component to our long-term strategy within this growth market. Initial commissioning has already begun, and we expect output from this new line to be a strong contributor to our performance next year as we ramp up to full production in early 2025. At full run rate, this project is expected to provide approximately 300 to 400 basis points of margin expansion to our consolidated businesses margin. Our efforts to optimize Warrick have progressed over the last few years and we look forward to sharing how this strategic investment will contribute to our 2025 EBITDA expectations and beyond as we meet with you again for our fourth quarter call in February of next year.

塗層生產線仍然是我們在這個成長市場的長期策略的重要組成部分。初步調試已經開始，我們預計這條新生產線的產量將為我們明年的業績做出巨大貢獻，因為我們將在 2025 年初實現滿載生產。在滿載運轉的情況下，該專案預計將為我們的合併業務利潤率帶來約 300 至 400 個基點的利潤成長。過去幾年來，我們為優化 Warrick 所做的努力取得了進展，我們期待在明年 2 月的第四季度電話會議上與您分享這項戰略投資將如何為我們 2025 年及以後的 EBITDA 預期做出貢獻。

Now turning to general engineering on slide 15. We believe destocking has run its course within our long products, and currently, we believe shipments are matching true end market demand. To give you a look at one of the key metrics we use to determine the underlying health of this end market, service center inventory levels for long products are now at levels not seen since 2013.

現在轉到投影片 15 上的一般工程。我們相信，我們的長材產品的去庫存化已經完成，目前，我們相信出貨量與真正的終端市場需求相符。為了讓您了解我們用來確定該終端市場基本健康狀況的關鍵指標之一，服務中心的長材庫存水準目前處於2013年以來的最高水準。

Low inventory conditions warrant our attention as they have historically bolstered orders as our customers generally rebuild inventory positions in the first half of any given year. For plate, while inventories remain elevated in the channel, we're seeing initial signs of order recovery from our semiconductor customers as they prepare for an improving equipment cycle in 2025.

低庫存狀況值得我們關注，因為從歷史上看，這種情況會促進訂單，因為我們的客戶通常會在每年上半年重建庫存。對於板材而言，雖然庫存仍然處於高位，但我們看到半導體客戶訂單出現復甦的初步跡象，他們正在為 2025 年設備週期的改善做準備。

While low service center inventory levels for long products and the outlook for semiconductor plate into 2025 create an environment for improved demand, continued pricing stability will need the support of an improvement in North American manufacturing. Historically, extended periods of destocking and contracting manufacturing purchasing manager indices have generally had an adverse impact on price. However, we are encouraged that pricing has held up better than expected thus far due to the strength of our product lines, market position and the positive impacts of reshoring.

雖然長材服務中心庫存水準較低以及2025年半導體板材的前景為需求改善創造了環境，但持續的價格穩定需要北美製造業改善的支持。從歷史上看，長期去庫存和製造業採購經理指數萎縮通常會對價格產生不利影響。然而，令人鼓舞的是，由於我們產品線的強大、市場地位的鞏固以及回流的積極影響，迄今為止定價表現優於預期。

Next, I'll turn to automotive on slide 16. I'd like to highlight that our shipment levels are up modestly from 2023 and we remain on track to meet the conversion revenue target previously communicated on an improved mix of higher value-added products. Even as automotive production rates have adjusted lower throughout the year, the SUV and heavy and light truck platforms, where we participate, have continued to outperform the broader automotive market.

接下來，我將轉到第 16 張投影片討論汽車問題。我想強調的是，我們的出貨量較 2023 年略有上升，我們仍有望實現先前透過改進高附加價值產品組合所實現的轉換收入目標。儘管汽車生產​​率在全年有所下調，但我們參與的 SUV、重型和輕型卡車平台的表現仍然優於整體汽車市場。

Turning to slide 17. I'll now turn to our summary outlook for the full year 2024, which is consistent with the one I shared last quarter. We continue to expect overall conversion revenue to remain stable between 0% and 1% growth as compared with 2023. And our resulting EBITDA margin is estimated to be up 50 to 100 basis points year-over-year, not including the impact from GAAP LIFO accounting. Please note that this outlook does not reflect additional delays in shipments of declared orders due to current labor or supply chain challenges within the aerospace end markets.

翻到第 17 張投影片。現在，我將談談我們對 2024 年全年的總結展望，這與我上個季度分享的展望一致。我們繼續預計，與 2023 年相比，整體轉換收入將保持穩定的成長在 0% 至 1% 之間。我們的最終 EBITDA 利潤率預計將比去年同期上升 50 到 100 個基點，這還不包括 GAAP LIFO 會計的影響。請注意，由於航空航天終端市場當前勞動力或供應鏈挑戰，該展望並未反映已申報訂單發貨的進一步延遲。

In summary, I am pleased with our efforts this year to stabilize the business and make significant advancements at our Warrick packaging facility. I am confident Kaiser is well positioned ahead of 2025, which we expect will be a transformational year for the company, as we capitalize on key investments in several markets we serve. As always, we will remain highly diligent on our cost and focus on improving operating efficiencies. I look forward to sharing our 2025 outlook with you in February.

總而言之，我對我們今年為穩定業務並在沃里克包裝工廠取得重大進展所做的努力感到滿意。我相信 Kaiser 已為 2025 年做好了充分準備，我們預計這一年將是公司的轉型之年，因為我們將利用所服務的多個市場中的關鍵投資。與往常一樣，我們將高度重視成本，並致力於提高營運效率。我期待在二月與您分享我們的 2025 年展望。

With that, I will now open the call to any questions you may have. Operator?

現在，我將開始回答大家可能提出的任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）Timna Tanners，Wolfe Research。

I wanted to probe the aerospace side a bit more. We are hearing from some other suppliers to the sector that there is some destocking happening. Some of this is just other suppliers slower to proceed and also just a destocking because of the lower build rates across Boeing and Airbus.

我想進一步探究航空航天方面的情況。我們從該行業一些其他供應商獲悉，一些供應商正在經歷去庫存現象。部分原因是其他供應商的進展較慢，也由於波音和空中巴士的製造率較低而導致的庫存減少。

So I guess, first question is, are you seeing that? And I know you said that your forecast doesn't reflect any delayed orders and challenges in the aero end markets. But with the Boeing strike not looking like it's getting resolved near term, can you give us a little bit more color about what to expect if that proceeds?

所以我想，第一個問題是，你看到了嗎？我知道您說過，您的預測沒有反映出航空終端市場的任何延遲訂單和挑戰。但由於波音罷工事件似乎無法在短期內解決，您能否向我們透露如果罷工繼續進行將會出現什麼情況？

Yes, listen, I reflect back in our second quarter earnings call. We put out a little notice that we felt that the inventory in the channel was higher and that it could impact our shipments and conversion revenue associated with that. And we were -- we moved it down. Our outlook is to be down 2% to 3% on both shipments and revenue -- conversion revenue as compared to the record year of 2023.

是的，聽著，我回顧了我們第二季的財報電話會議。我們發布了一則通知，表示我們認為通路中的庫存較高，這可能會影響我們的出貨量和與此相關的轉換收入。然後我們就把它往下移了。我們預計，與創紀錄的 2023 年相比，出貨量和收入（轉換收入）將下降 2% 至 3%。

And so with our comments today, we've reiterated that we still believe we're within that envelope through the balance of the year. Now some color around that: again, at least as it reflects to Kaiser, we've talked a lot about the diversity of our products and our markets in aerospace and high strength. And so that's a reflection back on defense and space, all of which we saw enhanced business through the quarter. Now as it relates to the OEMs, obviously, we're not in control of that situation. There is inventory as you would expect in that supply line because there are certain build rates that all of the large OEM airframers have been buying to and they've all reflected that their build rates aren't to those levels.

因此，透過今天的評論，我們重申我們仍然相信，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們將能夠實現這一目標。現在對此進行一些說明：再次，至少向凱撒反映，我們已經談了很多關於我們的產品和我們在航空航天和高強度領域的市場的多樣性。這反映了國防和太空領域的情況，我們在本季度看到了這些領域的業務成長。現在，就 OEM 而言，顯然我們無法控制這種情況。正如您所期望的，該供應線中有庫存，因為所有大型 OEM 飛機製造商的購買量都有一定的建造率，而他們都反映他們的建造率沒有達到那個水平。

But with some color specifically for us, I'm very pleased with the types and quality of the contracts we've negotiated over the years. So we built in some insurance levels to help us through those times. I can tell you that on declarations for all of the large OEM airframers, we have shipped the bulk of the declarations already through this year. So I'm really thinking -- obviously, I can't predict what's going to happen with others, but I think our exposure to a prolonged outage or delay in build rates is minimal compared to what our declarations were stated for the year.

但由於我們專門提供了一些顏色，我對我們多年來談判的合約類型和品質感到非常滿意。因此，我們設立了一些保險等級來幫助我們度過這些時期。我可以告訴你們，對於所有大型 OEM 飛機製造商的申報，我們今年已經發出了大部分申報。所以我真的在想——顯然，我無法預測其他人會發生什麼，但我認為，與我們今年的聲明相比，我們面臨的長期停工或建設率延遲的可能性很小。

Okay. That's helpful. I wanted to switch gears, if I could, to talk about the potential impact of further tariffs. So given the election coming up and that being topical, can you remind us kind of about how you think about further tariffs on imports of aluminum downstream products, which I think haven't been targeted as much in the past and how that could impact your business?

好的。這很有幫助。如果可以的話，我想換個話題，談談進一步徵收關稅的潛在影響。因此，鑑於選舉即將到來，而且這是當前熱門話題，您能否提醒我們一下，您對進一步對鋁下游產品進口徵收關稅的看法，我認為過去這些產品並沒有受到太多針對，以及這將如何影響您的業務？

Yes. Look, we're -- the majority of the businesses that we participate, I would say, with other than on the aerospace side and on semiconductor, we're mainly focused on North America for our customers and the outlets for our products. So quite frankly, additional tariffs, I believe, will help -- anything that helps strengthen the North American manufacturing is going to be a big positive for us. I think you've seen some momentum move on those tariffs. We've seen Canada and Mexico impose 25% tariff levels as opposed to the existing what they were maybe 10% earlier.

是的。看，我們 - 我想說，我們參與的大多數業務，除了航空航天和半導體領域之外，主要關注的是北美的客戶和我們產品的銷售網點。因此坦白說，我相信額外的關稅將會有所幫助——任何有助於加強北美製造業的舉措對我們來說都是一件大好事。我想你已經看到這些關稅的一些勢頭。我們看到加拿大和墨西哥徵收了 25% 的關稅，而之前的關稅稅率可能是 10%。

So I think that momentum is building, Timna. And I believe, ultimately, stronger North America manufacturing and how we're positioned there that will do nothing but strengthen this company. So I believe we're moving in a positive momentum forward in the area and the question you just asked.

因此我認為這種勢頭正在增強，蒂姆娜。我相信，最終，更強大的北美製造業以及我們在那裡的定位將會增強我們公司的力量。所以我相信我們在這個領域和您剛才提出的問題上正朝著正面的方向發展。

Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

Thanks for posting the presentation in advance. I wanted to ask a few on packaging and actually a few of the other end markets too, if I may. First on packaging, it looks like the shipments didn't improve as much as expected in the third quarter, but with the full year guidance of plus 2% to 3% looks like a significant step up sequentially. I guess, were there any impacts to call out in 3Q? And I guess, how should we think about shipments in 4Q? And maybe even just saying like further, can we get back or exceed the 170-plus range we saw in the second half of 2021 run rate?

感謝您提前發布簡報。如果可以的話，我想問一些關於包裝的問題，實際上也想問一些關於其他終端市場的問題。首先是包裝方面，看起來第三季的出貨量沒有像預期的那樣有所改善，但考慮到全年預計的成長 2% 至 3%，看起來比上一季有了顯著的成長。我想問一下，第三季會有什麼影響嗎？我想，我們該如何看待第四季的出貨量？甚至可能進一步說，我們能否回到或超過 2021 年下半年 170 以上的運行率？

Good questions. The quarter, you might recall, as we went into second quarter, we said that we had a backlog of orders. And so quite frankly, from our delivery performance pain that we've caused some of our customers, we've been in catch-up mode. And so while we've been trying to catch up and make sure that we don't provide any disruption to our customers, we've really been moving in a way to make sure that everyone gets resolved here, everyone gets settled some. So some of the efficiency may not have been as large as we had hoped.

好問題。您可能還記得，當我們進入第二季時，我們說我們有大量訂單積壓。坦白說，由於我們給一些客戶帶來了交付性能方面的困擾，我們一直處於追趕模式。因此，在我們努力迎頭趕上並確保不會給客戶帶來任何干擾的同時，我們也確實在採取某種方式，確保每個人的問題都得到解決，每個人都能得到安頓。因此，部分效率可能沒有我們所希望的那麼高。

However, that backlog is beginning to fall. And we're beginning to continue to hit the strong demand, and we're ramping up on a monthly basis with the output of the facility. So we have a very strong fourth quarter outlook in front of us. And our customers are already talking about increased levels for 2025.

然而，積壓數量正在開始減少。我們開始繼續滿足強勁的需求，並且每月都在增加工廠的產量。因此，我們對第四季的前景非常樂觀。我們的客戶已經在談論 2025 年的更高水準。

I'm very excited about deploying the new investment we've been putting up there because, quite frankly, that mix is going to shift for us as we move into 2025. A lot of that mix is going to be able to be done in-house on a very efficient line to complement the other three lines that we have. So our output should only improve as we move into 2025 and as we really implement the new investment we've got there at the facility. So right now, we're running every shift we can, and we believe we'll become more efficient, and we're going to have a better mix of products as we run through really fourth quarter and really getting into 2025.

我很高興部署我們在那裡投入的新投資，因為坦白說，隨著我們進入 2025 年，這種組合將會改變。許多混合工作都能夠在一條非常有效率的生產線上內部完成，以補充我們現有的其他三條生產線。因此，隨著我們進入 2025 年並且真正實施我們在工廠的新投資，我們的產量只會提高。因此現在，我們正在盡一切努力，我們相信我們會變得更加高效，而且隨著我們進入第四季度並真正進入 2025 年，我們將擁有更好的產品組合。

Great. Maybe sticking on that last point on the new roll coat line. Has there been any further progress on customer commitments? What are the expectations, I guess, more granular on the timing of the qualification and ramp? Is this a few -- one or two quarters into the new year or more likely towards -- as we -- later in the year?

偉大的。也許堅持在新的捲塗線上的最後一點。客戶承諾方面還有什麼進一步的進展嗎？我猜，對於資格認證和提升的時間安排，您有更具體的期望嗎？這是在新的一年的幾個季度後，還是更有可能在今年晚些時候？

Yes. So we're -- we continue to negotiate with customers, Bill. Some of the contracts that we're discussing were really due to be up in 2026, so we're actually pulling forward some of that discussion to ensure that we can get the mix that the customers are requesting from us.

是的。因此我們—我們會繼續與客戶談判，比爾。我們正在討論的一些合約實際上將於 2026 年到期，因此我們實際上將部分討論提前，以確保我們能夠獲得客戶要求的組合。

So some of that's underway. We talked about, in the past, we've got probably about 70% of that capacity already contracted for and the 30% remaining is under discussion, as we speak. And so as we look at ramp rate here, so we're -- as per my comments, we're already hot commissioning certain aspects of that line.

其中一些工作正在進行中。我們過去談到過，大概 70% 的產能已經簽訂了合同，剩下的 30% 正在討論中。因此，當我們在這裡查看爬坡率時，我們 - 根據我的評論，我們已經在熱調試該生產線的某些方面。

I was up there a couple of weeks ago, and progress has been very well and really looking for a start-up of the line in the fourth quarter here, and we'll begin qualifications with customer, customer product and testing for that. So we'll debug and qualify beginning in early 2025.

幾週前我去過那裡，進展非常順利，我們真的期待在第四季度啟動這條生產線，我們將開始對客戶、客戶產品進行認證並進行測試。因此，我們將從 2025 年初開始進行調試和鑑定。

My expectations are that hopefully, we'll reach full ramp rate. We'll begin to get to that level as we enter into the end of the first quarter or perhaps the beginning of the second quarter of next year.

我的期望是，我們能夠達到全速成長。當我們進入第一季末或明年第二季初時，我們將開始達到這一水平。

Maybe pivoting a bit to the metal sourcing strategy. I guess, can you discuss project thus far, how much margin benefit maybe has been realized? And maybe are you seeing any impacts from tighter scrap spreads? And if so, when would you expect those might revert?

也許會稍微轉向金屬採購策略。我想，您能討論一下迄今為止的專案嗎，可能實現了多少利潤收益？也許，您已經看到了廢料價差收緊的影響？如果會的話，您預計什麼時候會恢復？

Yes. So the strategy moving forward, we've been implementing as we discussed in our second quarter call. We've got the position set up very well, but I will reiterate that the scrap spreads versus prime levels are very much compressed at the moment. And so the gain that you might expected to see from a historic or at least over the last four or five years is pretty compressed to that level at the moment.

是的。因此，正如我們在第二季電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們一直在實施未來的策略。我們已經很好地建立了倉位，但我要重申的是，目前廢料價差相對於優質鋼材的價差已經被壓縮了很多。因此，您可能期望從歷史數據或至少過去四到五年看到的收益目前相當壓縮到這個水平。

Now when will that compression end, when will spreads get better? I don't have the answer for that, Bill. All I know is that we're preparing all of our businesses to utilize more scrap, okay, more recycled content, and we'll be in a position to take advantage of whatever compression -- generally, there's some gain to be used in the recycled, and whatever is out there, we intend to maximize it.

那麼，這種壓縮何時會結束，利差何時會改善？我不知道答案，比爾。我所知道的是，我們正在準備讓我們的所有業務利用更多的廢料，更好的是，更多的再生材料，我們將能夠利用任何壓縮材料——一般來說，回收利用可以帶來一些收益，無論有什麼，我們都打算最大限度地利用它。

Great. And if I could sneak one more, and then I can take others offline. Pivoting to automotive, obviously, there's a lot of evidence of further weakness, which obviously more so from European makers, although some domestic. I guess, first of all, can you speak to how this is impacting your business and then the types of platforms that Kaiser is levered to and what you're doing to help mitigate any of these sort of negative trends?

偉大的。如果我能再偷偷溜走一次，那麼我就可以讓其他人下線。轉向汽車行業，顯然有很多證據表明其將進一步走軟，這顯然更多來自歐洲製造商，儘管也有一些國內製造商。我想，首先，您能否談談這對您的業務有何影響，然後談談 Kaiser 利用的平台類型，以及您正在採取什麼措施來幫助減輕這些負面趨勢？

Yes. Bill, I think a lot of this gets down to what platforms you participate on, what products you provide. We've been in the automotive industry for about 50 years. There's a lot of products that we won't provide. We just don't see a competitive position for Kaiser.

是的。比爾，我認為這很大程度取決於你參與的平台和你提供的產品。我們從事汽車行業已有大約 50 年的歷史。有很多產品我們不會提供。我們只是看不到凱撒的競爭地位。

However, those that we do, and that's the extruded product side, we're really on platforms and applications that are really -- that benefit us. So we're agnostic to whether it's EV or an ICE or even hybrids in some applications. So all of those utilize the components that we provide, and that's been going very well for us.

然而，我們所做的，也就是擠壓產品方面，我們真正關注的是平台和應用程序，這些平台和應用程式確實對我們有益。因此，我們無法確定在某些應用中它是電動車、內燃機汽車還是混合動力車。所有這些都利用了我們提供的組件，這對我們來說進展非常順利。

As I mentioned on the comments, we're heavily focused on light, heavy truck and SUVs. Fortunately, for us, that's holding up very well. I think you see the results from General Motors and others, they really focus back on that category of the marketplace being -- continue to be very strong and supported by consumer sentiment. So we're on the right vehicles. We're on North America.

正如我在評論中提到的，我們主要關注輕型卡車、重型卡車和 SUV。幸運的是，我們的情況還不錯。我認為您會看到通用汽車和其他公司的業績，他們確實重新關注了市場類別——繼續保持強勁並受到消費者情緒的支持。因此我們選擇了正確的交通工具。我們在北美。

We're not in Europe. So we're very focused with where we are with our products. And as you saw in the results there, even though the overall shipments are down in that area of automotive, our business is up.

我們不在歐洲。因此，我們非常關注我們的產品現狀。正如您在結果中看到的那樣，儘管汽車領域的整體出貨量下降，但我們的業務正在成長。

And I think we'll continuing to see some strengthening of that going into 2025. So I'm very pleased with our exposure there. As you know, it's probably our smallest position from a conversion revenue perspective, but we like where we are participating.

我認為到 2025 年，這種趨勢將繼續加強。所以我對於我們在那裡的曝光感到非常滿意。如您所知，從轉換收入的角度來看，這可能是我們最小的職位，但我們喜歡我們參與的職位。

Yes, makes sense. Good luck here on all the projects you have.

是的，有道理。祝你所有專案順利。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Keith Harvey, CEO, for closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。我想將發言權交還給執行長 Keith Harvey，請他發表最後評論。

Yes. Thank you. And thanks for being with us today. I look forward to updating you on our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results in February. Have a good day.

是的。謝謝。感謝您今天的來訪。我期待在二月向您報告我們第四季和 2024 年全年的業績。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與。