Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Kaiser Aluminum Corporation third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加凱撒鋁業公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kim Orlando with ADDO Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹主持人、來自 ADDO 投資者關係部門的 Kim Orlando。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Kaiser Aluminum's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. If you have not seen a copy of our earnings release, please visit the Investor Relations page on our website at kaiseraluminum.com. We have also posted a PDF version of the slide presentation for this call. Joining me on the call today are Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Keith Harvey; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Neal West.

謝謝。大家好，歡迎參加凱撒鋁業 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。如果您尚未看到我們的收益報告，請造訪我們網站 kaiseraluminum.com 上的投資者關係頁面。我們也發布了本次電話會議投影片的 PDF 版本。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Keith Harvey 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Neal West。

Before we begin, I'd like to refer you to the first four slides of our presentation and remind you that the statements made by management and the information contained in this presentation that constitute forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations.

在我們開始之前，我想請您看一下我們簡報的前四張投影片，並提醒您，管理層所做的陳述和本簡報中包含的構成前瞻性陳述的資訊均基於管理層當前的預期。

For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's earnings release and reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the full year ended December 31, 2024.

有關可能導致結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的具體風險因素的摘要，請參閱本公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的收益報告和報告，包括本公司截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的全年 10-K 表年度報告。

The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements to conform the statement to actual results or changes in the company's expectations. In addition, we have included non-GAAP financial information in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release and in the appendix of the presentation.

本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述以使該陳述符合實際結果或公司預期變化的義務。此外，我們在討論中也納入了非公認會計準則財務資訊。與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳包含在收益報告和簡報的附錄中。

Reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP financial measures are not provided because certain items required for such reconciliations are outside of our control and/or cannot be reasonably predicted or provided without unreasonable effort. Any reference to EBITDA in our discussion today means adjusted EBITDA, which excludes non-run rate items for which we have provided reconciliations in the appendix.

未提供某些前瞻性非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，因為此類對賬所需的某些項目超出了我們的控制範圍和/或無法合理預測或無需付出不合理的努力即可提供。我們今天的討論中提到的任何 EBITDA 都是指調整後的 EBITDA，它不包括我們在附錄中提供對帳的非運行率項目。

Further, slide five contains definitions of terms and measures that will be commonly used throughout today's presentation. At the conclusion of the company's presentation, we will open the call for questions.

此外，第五張投影片包含了今天簡報中常用的術語和措施的定義。公司演示結束後，我們將開始提問。

I would now like to turn the call over to Keith Harvey. Keith?

現在我想把電話轉給基斯·哈維。基思？

Thanks, Kim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 7 for our third quarter update. We're pleased to report another strong quarter, marking our fourth consecutive period of performance ahead of our expectations. As a result, we're once again raising our full year EBITDA outlook. During the quarter, we incurred approximately $20 million in start-up costs tied to our two key strategic investments for aerospace and packaging, offset by the impact of metal pricing on inventory, which continued to provide a favourable tailwind.

謝謝，金，大家早安。我將從第 7 張投影片開始介紹我們的第三季更新。我們很高興地報告又一個強勁的季度，這標誌著我們連續第四個季度的業績超出了我們的預期。因此，我們再次上調了全年 EBITDA 預期。在本季度，我們花費了大約 2000 萬美元的啟動成本，用於投資航空航天和包裝這兩個關鍵戰略項目，但金屬價格對庫存的影響抵消了這一影響，繼續為我們帶來了有利的推動力。

In total, we delivered 23% EBITDA margins in the third quarter and over 20% year-to-date. Now let's turn to the status of our key investments. At our Trentwood rolling mill, the installation of our Phase 7 plate capacity expansion project for aerospace and general engineering applications is nearly complete. It remains on time and on budget.

整體而言，我們第三季的 EBITDA 利潤率為 23%，年初至今的利潤率超過 20%。現在讓我們來看看我們的主要投資狀況。在我們的特倫特伍德軋機廠，用於航空航太和一般工程應用的第 7 期板材產能擴建工程的安裝已接近完成。它仍然按時且在預算之內。

As expected, the 12-week outage impacted our third quarter sales, reducing conversion revenue for aero and general engineering plate collectively by approximately $15 million to $20 million. The investment timing, however, aligns well with the short- and long-term growth expectations from our aerospace and general engineering customers.

正如預期的那樣，為期 12 週的停工影響了我們第三季的銷售，導致航空和通用工程板材的轉換收入總共減少了約 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。然而，投資時機與我們的航空航太和通用工程客戶的短期和長期成長預期相吻合。

At our Warrick packaging rolling mill, the fourth coating line is steadily progressing through its qualification phase. September marked our strongest output to date on the new line with momentum continuing into October. We anticipate reaching full run rate in time to support 2026 shipments. Customer feedback has been overwhelmingly positive regarding product quality and performance, fully aligning with the expectations we set when initiating this investment nearly three-years ago.

在我們的沃里克包裝軋機廠，第四條塗層生產線正在穩步推進其認證階段。9 月是我們新生產線迄今為止產量最高的月份，這一勢頭一直持續到 10 月。我們預計將及時達到滿載運轉以支持 2026 年的出貨量。客戶對產品品質和性能的回饋非常積極，完全符合我們在過去三年前啟動這項投資時所設定的期望。

This project remains central to our strategy of shifting the majority of the mill's output to coated products, a segment where Warrick already holds a market-leading position. As we approach full run rate, increased throughput will begin to satisfy our customers' demand needs and start-up costs will begin to taper off. Turning to our key end markets. demand remains solid.

該項目仍然是我們策略的核心，即將工廠的大部分產量轉向塗層產品，而 Warrick 在該領域已經佔據市場領先地位。隨著我們接近滿載運行，增加的吞吐量將開始滿足客戶的需求，啟動成本將開始逐漸減少。轉向我們的主要終端市場，需求依然強勁。

Aerospace is trending positively, though not yet fully reflected in our results. Packaging supply remains tight with strong demand expected to continue for the foreseeable future. General engineering continues to outperform the traditional 2% CAGR, reflecting solid demand from our customers. However, month-to-month demand has shown an uneven cadence, which has made it challenging to operate with normal efficiencies. Despite this variability, the overall trajectory remains strong.

航空航太業呈現正面趨勢，儘管尚未完全反映在我們的業績上。包裝供應仍然緊張，預計在可預見的未來強勁需求將持續下去。通用工程持續超越傳統的 2% 複合年增長率，反映出客戶的強勁需求。然而，每月需求呈現出不均衡的節奏，這使得正常效率的營運變得具有挑戰性。儘管存在這種變化，但整體趨勢仍然強勁。

Automotive rebounded meaningfully late summer after a volatile start to the year. I'll touch more on our markets in a moment when we discuss the outlook. With that market backdrop in mind, as we near the end of our major investment cycle, we have a renewed focus on managing our cost, restoring operating efficiencies and regaining our best-in-class operating metrics that have historically defined Kaiser.

在經歷了年初的動盪之後，汽車產業在夏末出現了顯著反彈。當我們討論前景時，我將更多地談論我們的市場。考慮到這樣的市場背景，隨著我們主要投資週期接近尾聲，我們重新將重點放在管理成本、恢復營運效率和重新獲得歷史上定義凱撒的最佳營運指標上。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Neal to walk through the financials. Neal?

說完這些，我會把電話轉給尼爾，讓他解說財務狀況。尼爾？

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. I'll now turn to slide 9 for an overview of our shipments and conversion revenue. Conversion revenue for the third quarter was $351 million, a decline of approximately $11 million or 3% compared to the prior year period. Looking at each of our end markets in detail. Aerospace and high-strength conversion revenue totalled $100 million, down $28 million or approximately 22%.

謝謝你，基思，大家早安。現在我將翻到第 9 張投影片來概述我們的出貨量和轉換收入。第三季的轉換收入為 3.51 億美元，與去年同期相比下降約 1,100 萬美元，降幅為 3%。詳細了解我們的每個終端市場。航空航太和高強度轉換收入總計 1 億美元，下降 2,800 萬美元，降幅約 22%。

This was primarily due to a 30% decline in shipments driven by the planned 12-week partial outage we took at the Trentwood facility to finalize our Phase 7 expansion projects as well as ongoing destocking in commercial aircraft OEM production. We anticipate improved demand conditions ahead as destocking appears to be easing, along with improved shipments as we return to full production following the outage.

這主要是由於我們計劃在特倫特伍德工廠進行為期 12 週的部分停工以完成第 7 階段擴建項目以及商用飛機 OEM 生產持續去庫存，導致出貨量下降了 30%。我們預計未來需求狀況將會改善，因為去庫存現像似乎正在緩解，而且隨著我們在停產後恢復全面生產，出貨量也會增加。

Demand has remained strong across our other aerospace and high-strength applications, including business jet, defence and space markets. Packaging conversion revenue totalled $138 million, up $9 million or approximately 7% year-over-year on stronger pricing and mix. Shipments for the quarter, while up 2% sequentially, declined 5% over the prior year period, reflecting the mix shift in product deliveries away from bare products as we continue to ramp the new roll coat line and qualify products with customers.

我們其他航空航太和高強度應用領域（包括公務機、國防和航太市場）的需求仍然強勁。包裝轉換收入總計 1.38 億美元，由於定價和產品組合強勁，年增 900 萬美元，增幅約 7%。本季出貨量較上季成長 2%，但比去年同期下降 5%，反映出隨著我們繼續擴大新的滾塗生產線並向客戶提供合格產品，產品交付結構已從裸機產品轉變。

As discussed, the underlying demand environment is strong, and we're working closely with our customers as we ramp the new coating line to full run rate levels by year-end 2025. General engineering conversion revenue for the third quarter was $81 million, up $5 million or 6% year-over-year on a 7% increase in shipments.

正如所討論的，潛在的需求環境強勁，我們正在與客戶密切合作，到 2025 年底將新的塗層生產線提升到滿載運行水平。第三季通用工程轉換收入為 8,100 萬美元，比去年同期增加 500 萬美元，增幅為 6%，出貨量增加 7%。

Reshoring activity continues to create a favourable demand backdrop, supporting both volumes and pricing. And finally, automotive conversion revenue of $32 million increased 10% year-over-year on a 5% decrease in shipments, primarily due to tariff-related customer uncertainty affecting the automotive industry. Improved pricing and product mix more than offset the lower shipments.

回流活動持續創造有利的需求背景，對產量和價格均形成支撐。最後，汽車改裝收入為 3,200 萬美元，年增 10%，但出貨量下降了 5%，這主要是由於與關稅相關的客戶不確定性影響了汽車產業。價格和產品組合的改善足以抵消出貨量下降的影響。

Additional details on conversion revenue and shipments by end market applications can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Now moving to slide 10. Reported operating income for the third quarter was $49 million, an increase of approximately $36 million from $13 million in the prior year quarter. As a reminder, the third quarter of 2024 included operating non-run rate charges of approximately $4 million, primarily related to an increase in legacy environmental reserves.

有關轉換收入和終端市場應用出貨量的更多詳細信息，請參閱本簡報的附錄。現在轉到投影片 10。第三季報告的營業收入為 4,900 萬美元，比去年同期的 1,300 萬美元增加約 3,600 萬美元。提醒一下，2024 年第三季包括約 400 萬美元的營運非運作費用，主要與遺留環境儲備的增加有關。

After adjusting for these charges, our third quarter 2025 adjusted operating income was up $32 million from the prior year quarter, reflecting a $35 million year-over-year improvement in EBITDA, partially offset by a $3 million of higher depreciation expense, primarily associated with the commissioning of our new coating line at Warrick.

調整這些費用後，我們 2025 年第三季的調整後營業收入較去年同期增加了 3,200 萬美元，反映出 EBITDA 同比成長 3,500 萬美元，但部分被 300 萬美元的更高折舊費用所抵消，這主要與我們在沃里克的新塗層生產線的調試有關。

Our effective tax rate for the third quarter was 17% compared to 21% in the third quarter of 2024. For the full year 2025, we expect our effective tax rate before discrete items to be in the low to mid-20% range, including the impacts related to the new tax bill recently signed into law. Additionally, we anticipate that the 2025 cash tax payments for federal, state and foreign taxes will be in the $5 million to $7 million range.

我們第三季的有效稅率為 17%，而 2024 年第三季的有效稅率為 21%。對於 2025 年全年，我們預計扣除單獨項目前的有效稅率將在 20% 的低點至中位數之間，其中包括最近簽署成為法律的新稅法的影響。此外，我們預計 2025 年聯邦、州和外國稅的現金稅額將在 500 萬至 700 萬美元之間。

Reported net income for the third quarter was $40 million or $2.38 net income per diluted share compared to net income of $9 million or $0.54 net income per diluted share in the prior year quarter. After adjusting for net pre-tax non-run rate income of approximately $11 million, primarily related to legacy land sales and insurance settlements associated with prior year claims, adjusted net income for the third quarter of 2025 was $31 million or $1.86 adjusted net income per diluted share, and this compares to adjusted net income of $5 million or $0.31 adjusted net income per diluted share in the prior year period, which excludes a net pre-tax non-run rate income of $4 million.

第三季報告的淨收入為 4,000 萬美元，即每股淨收入 2.38 美元，而去年同期的淨收入為 900 萬美元，即每股淨收入 0.54 美元。經調整約 1,100 萬美元的稅前淨非營運收入（主要與遺留土地銷售和與上一年索賠相關的保險結算有關）後，2025 年第三季度的調整後淨收入為 3100 萬美元，即每股攤薄調整後淨收入 1.86 美元，而去年同期的調整後淨收入為 500 萬美元，即每股收益萬美元的稅前淨非營運收入。

Now turning to slide 11. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $81 million, up approximately $35 million from the prior year period. Importantly, this result was achieved despite the 8% year-over-year reduction in our shipments. The true momentum in the business earnings power is becoming increasingly clear, driven by the stronger mix of higher value-added products and strong underlying fundamentals across our business and end markets.

現在翻到第 11 張投影片。第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 8,100 萬美元，較去年同期增加約 3,500 萬美元。重要的是，儘管我們的出貨量比去年同期減少了 8%，但我們仍然取得了這項成果。業務獲利能力的真正動力正變得越來越清晰，這得益於我們業務和終端市場的高附加價值產品組合以及強勁的基本面。

Additionally, during the quarter, we incurred approximately $20 million of higher operating costs and inefficiencies associated with the Trentwood Phase 7 outage and the ongoing Warrick Roll Coat ramp-up, which we don't expect to continue. These discrete costs were offset by a year-over-year increase in metal lag gains, primarily attributed to the continuing increase in metal price during the quarter.

此外，在本季度，我們因特倫特伍德第 7 階段停電和正在進行的 Warrick Roll Coat 增產而產生了約 2000 萬美元的運營成本增加和效率低下，我們預計這種情況不會持續下去。這些離散成本被金屬滯後收益的年增率所抵消，這主要歸因於本季金屬價格的持續上漲。

Now turning to a discussion of our balance sheet and cash flow. As of September 30, 2025, we had $577 million in total liquidity, including $17 million in cash and $560 million in availability on the revolver. Importantly, as of the end of the third quarter, our net debt leverage ratio improved to 3.6 times from 4.3 times at the end of 2024.

現在來討論我們的資產負債表和現金流。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，我們的總流動資金為 5.77 億美元，其中包括 1,700 萬美元的現金和 5.6 億美元的循環信貸額度。重要的是，截至第三季末，我們的淨負債槓桿率從 2024 年底的 4.3 倍改善至 3.6 倍。

Earlier this month, we announced the extension of our $575 million revolving credit facility, underscoring the continued strength of our financial position and the confidence our lending partners place in our long-term strategy. The extended facility is set to mature in October 2030, subject to certain conditions. We generated cash flow from operations of $59 million during the third quarter with our capital expenditures totalling $25 million.

本月初，我們宣布延長 5.75 億美元的循環信貸額度，凸顯了我們財務狀況的持續強勁以及貸款合作夥伴對我們長期策略的信心。延長後的貸款將於 2030 年 10 月到期，但需滿足某些條件。第三季度，我們的營運現金流為 5,900 萬美元，資本支出總額為 2,500 萬美元。

We expect capital expenditures for the full year 2025 to be approximately $130 million with free cash flow anticipated to be in the range of $30 million to $50 million, reflecting temporary working capital impacts tied to higher metal costs. Importantly, we remain on track to complete our major growth capital projects this year and continue funding our quarterly dividend of $0.77 per share, reinforcing our commitment to returning value to our shareholders.

我們預計 2025 年全年資本支出約為 1.3 億美元，自由現金流預計在 3,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元之間，這反映了與金屬成本上升相關的暫時營運資本影響。重要的是，我們仍有望在今年完成主要的成長資本項目，並繼續為每股 0.77 美元的季度股息提供資金，從而加強我們向股東回報價值的承諾。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Keith to discuss our outlook. Keith?

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給 Keith 來討論我們的前景。基思？

Thanks, Neal. We continue to be encouraged by the momentum and visibility we're seeing across our markets. Let me now walk you through our full year outlook by end market on slide 13. Starting with aero and high strength. Commercial aircraft recovery remained on pace throughout the third quarter with build rates strengthening and the supply chain normalization progressing, providing us with greater confidence of growing demand heading into 2026.

謝謝，尼爾。我們繼續對整個市場所看到的勢頭和知名度感到鼓舞。現在，讓我在第 13 張投影片上向您介紹我們對終端市場的全年展望。從航空和高強度開始。商用飛機的復甦在整個第三季度保持了良好的勢頭，建造率不斷提高，供應鏈正常化不斷推進，這讓我們對 2026 年需求的成長更有信心。

As build rates ramp, we expect elevated aluminium inventory levels in the channel to be rapidly absorbed. Demand in defence, space and business jet remains steady at strong levels. Looking ahead, we're confident in our position as a leading global supplier of aluminium products in these end markets. Our capital investments continue to strengthen that leadership and position us well for the long term.

隨著建設率的提高，我們預計渠道中升高的鋁庫存水準將被迅速吸收。國防、航太和公務機的需求保持強勁穩定。展望未來，我們對自己作為這些終端市場領先的全球鋁產品供應商的地位充滿信心。我們的資本投資繼續加強這一領導地位，並使我們處於長期有利​​地位。

As a result of our planned 12-week partial outage for our Phase 7 investment at Trentwood and the resulting lower sales in Q3, we now expect full year aerospace shipments and conversion revenue to be down approximately 10% year-over-year as destocking works through the system and shipments recover in the fourth quarter. Let's move on to packaging.

由於我們計劃對特倫特伍德的第 7 階段投資進行為期 12 週的部分停工，並導致第三季度銷售額下降，我們現在預計全年航空航天出貨量和轉換收入將同比下降約 10%，因為系統正在去庫存，並且出貨量將在第四季度恢復。讓我們繼續進行包裝。

We remain confident in the long-term outlook and the strength of our customer pipeline with the full ramp-up of our coating line on pace for late fourth quarter of 2025. North American demand continues to far outpace available supply, and we expect that dynamic to persist well beyond 2025. Our team is fully focused on accelerating capacity and throughput across our value stream to meet the growing needs of our customers.

隨著我們的塗層生產線在 2025 年第四季末全面投產，我們對長期前景和客戶通路的實力仍然充滿信心。北美的需求繼續遠遠超過可用的供應，我們預計這種動態將持續到 2025 年以後。我們的團隊全力致力於提高整個價值流的產能和吞吐量，以滿足客戶日益增長的需求。

Due mainly to the previously discussed delay in the start-up of our new roll coat line, we now expect conversion revenue for the year to be up 12% to 15% as the mix shift to higher-margin coated products continues to build. Shipments are still expected to decline approximately 3% to 5% year-over-year as we finalize the ramp of our new roll coating line, ahead of fully benefiting from the mix shift in volumes.

主要由於先前討論過的我們新的輥塗生產線啟動延遲，隨著產品組合向利潤率更高的塗層產品的轉變不斷推進，我們現在預計今年的轉換收入將增長 12% 至 15%。隨著我們最終完成新輥塗生產線的量產，並且尚未完全受益於產量組合的變化，預計出貨量仍將年減約 3% 至 5%。

We expect a higher output from the new roll coat line in the fourth quarter as we improve line speeds and realize the full capabilities of the line. Turning to general engineering. Our strong momentum from the first half carried into the third quarter with shipments up mid-single digits and solid pricing supporting growth in conversion revenue.

隨著我們提高生產線速度並充分發揮生產線的功能，我們預計第四季度新輥塗生產線的產量將更高。轉向一般工程。我們上半年的強勁勢頭延續到了第三季度，出貨量成長了中個位數，穩健的定價支持了轉換收入的成長。

Looking ahead, we expect shipments to remain strong for the remainder of the year, driven by a favourable mix shift towards plate products, which will further support conversion revenue growth. We continue to expect full year shipments and conversion revenue to be up approximately 5% to 10% year-over-year. Finally, turning to automotive. Our outlook for the remainder of the year remains stable.

展望未來，我們預計今年剩餘時間內出貨量將保持強勁，這得益於向板材產品的有利組合轉變，這將進一步支持轉換收入的成長。我們繼續預計全年出貨量和轉換收入將年增約 5% 至 10%。最後，轉向汽車。我們對今年剩餘時間的展望依然穩定。

Auto production forecast have varied throughout the year, hitting a low point post tariffs in mid-summer before expectations improved into the fall. The resilience of our portfolio and favourable mix toward SUVs and light truck ICE vehicles has kept us steady. As a result, we continue to expect our full year conversion revenue to increase approximately 3% to 5% year-over-year on approximately 5% to 7% lower shipments. Now turning to our summary outlook on slide 14.

汽車產量預測全年都在變化，在仲夏關稅後達到低點，然後在秋季預期會有所改善。我們的產品組合的彈性以及對 SUV 和輕型卡車 ICE 車輛的有利組合使我們保持穩定。因此，我們預計全年轉換收入將年增約 3% 至 5%，而出貨量將下降約 5% 至 7%。現在轉到投影片 14 上的總結展望。

Our end market fundamentals remain strong, and our operational execution continues to improve. Based on our year-to-date performance in 2025 and our updated expectations for aero and high strength and packaging, we're updating our full year conversion revenue guidance to be flat to up 5% year-over-year. And raising our full year EBITDA outlook by 10%, now expecting 20% to 25% year-over-year growth over our recasted 2024 EBITDA of $241 million.

我們的終端市場基本面依然強勁，我們的營運執行力持續改善。根據我們 2025 年年初至今的業績以及對航空、高強度和包裝的最新預期，我們將全年轉換收入預期更新為同比持平至增長 5%。並將全年 EBITDA 預期上調 10%，目前預計 2024 年 EBITDA 將比上年增長 20% 至 25%，達到 2.41 億美元。

We remain firmly focused on our long-term objective of achieving mid- to high 20% EBITDA margins. And we see clear tangible progress toward that goal as our investments come fully online and end market demand continues to improve.

我們始終堅定地專注於實現 20% 中高 EBITDA 利潤率的長期目標。隨著我們的投資全面到位以及終端市場需求持續改善，我們看到了朝著這一目標取得的明顯實際進展。

With that, I will now open the call to any questions you may have. Operator?

現在，我將開始回答大家可能提出的任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

On the aero and high strength, shipments down 30% quarter-on-quarter. It sounds like a lot of that was based off the Trentwood and planned maintenance. But how much -- can you help delineate between the planned maintenance versus weakness, continued weakness you've seen? Based off your revised guidance, it looks like you see more or less a recovery back to first, second quarter levels in 4Q.

航空和高強度材料的出貨量較上季下降 30%。聽起來其中很多都是基於特倫特伍德和計劃維護。但是，您能幫助區分計劃維護與您所看到的弱點和持續弱點嗎？根據您修改後的指導意見，您似乎認為第四季度的情況或多或少會恢復到第一季、第二季的水平。

But I guess with your comments on destocking abating, how should we think about your aero high strength trajectory in 2026? I guess how fast can we see a recovery?

但我想，鑑於您對去庫存化減弱的評論，我們應該如何看待您在 2026 年的航空高強度軌跡？我猜我們多久能看到復甦？

Yes. Bill, first, your assessment of what we are looking at in Q4 is right on. You look at the run rate we had in the first half of the year, we expect that to come back very close to those levels. Now we're still finalizing the Phase 7 at Trentwood. So that's going to cut into the fourth quarter a little bit, but I wouldn't expect that to impact shipments any more than 5% or 10% off of the first half.

是的。比爾，首先，你對我們在第四季所關注的情況的評估是正確的。看看我們今年上半年的運行率，我們預計它會回到非常接近這些水平。現在我們仍在完成特倫特伍德的第 7 階段。因此，這將對第四季度產生一定影響，但我預計這對出貨量的影響不會超過上半年的 5% 或 10%。

With respect to destocking and where we see in 2026, we're going to be able to give you a much clearer view of that in February of next year. But I will say that as we had anticipated, we're beginning to see these ramp rates continue to increase. And when those build rates up, that expedites the condition and the inventory levels.

關於去庫存以及我們對 2026 年前景的預測，我們將在明年 2 月為您提供更清晰的視角。但我要說的是，正如我們預期的那樣，我們開始看到這些上升率持續上升。當這些建設率上升時，就會加速狀況和庫存水準的上升。

So I think Boeing and others are on a really good pace moving forward. As you saw, we had another rate increase. And most of these rate increases generally around five shipsets ramp increments. And I would expect to see a couple -- two or three more of those as we go into 2026. So again, it's just expediting the situation we've had. And I think it will be continued improvement. We'll have more detailed information on that in February.

因此我認為波音和其他公司正以非常好的步伐向前發展。如您所見，我們再次提高了利率。大多數費率的上漲一般圍繞著五艘船的坡道增量。我預計，到 2026 年，我們還會看到兩到三個這樣的案例。所以，這只是加速了我們已經遇到的情況。我認為它將會持續改善。我們將在二月份公佈更多詳細資訊。

Okay. Yes, fair enough. On packaging, it sounds like you're prioritizing more higher value add. But I guess in terms of your contract negotiations, where do the last, I guess, renegotiations stand. And when these new packaging contracts kick in, how should we think about the magnitude of the pricing uplift as we look into next year?

好的。是的，很公平。關於包裝，聽起來您優先考慮更高的附加價值。但我想，就你的合約談判而言，最後的重新談判結果如何？當這些新的包裝合約生效時，我們該如何看待明年價格上漲的幅度？

Yes. Well, we're staying pretty firm with our 300 to 400 basis points increase on the EBITDA side of -- the EBITDA margin side of the business here, Bill. We've had great progress throughout the year with regard to putting those contracts in place. I've been very pleased with the progress there. We're down to, quite frankly, one last major customer, long-term customer with Kaiser, and that's really progressed well.

是的。嗯，比爾，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率方面將保持 300 至 400 個基點的穩定成長。我們在執行這些合約方面全年取得了巨大進展。我對那裡的進展感到非常高興。坦白說，我們只剩下最後一個主要客戶，也是 Kaiser 的長期客戶，而且進展非常順利。

I believe that will be finalized before the end of the year and you'll start to see those ramp-ups and the change in the volume. If you go look at our conversion per pound rate that's happened, you'll see some pretty significant growth over the last four to five quarters. And that's even before we put in the new capacities. So I'm expecting some pretty accelerated rates there.

我相信這將在今年年底之前完成，您將開始看到這些增長和數量的變化。如果您查看我們每磅的轉換率，您會發現過去四到五個季度出現了相當顯著的增長。這還是在我們投入新產能之前。所以我預計那裡的利率會相當快。

I'll give you some insight where people -- the other question that has been asked of us quite a good bit is will that be fully committed then? Will Warrick be at full total run rate? And I can tell you, no, we're going to actually take the measured approach next year. We're only going to put out about 75% or 80% of that capacity, just to make sure that we don't get ourselves in a situation where we're not giving exemplary delivery performance back to our customer base.

我會給你一些見解，人們經常問我們的另一個問題是，那會是完全承諾嗎？沃里克會全力發揮嗎？我可以告訴你，不，明年我們實際上會採取審慎的態度。我們只會投入約 75% 或 80% 的產能，以確保我們不會陷入無法向客戶群提供卓越交付績效的境地。

They've struggled a little bit with the delays we've had this year, but I believe the outcome is going to be really solid. So we're really looking forward to cranking this thing up beginning first of the year.

他們對於我們今年遇到的延誤感到有​​些掙扎，但我相信結果會非常穩定。因此，我們非常期待從年初開始啟動這項工作。

Maybe just a housekeeping. You talked about the commissioning charge. How much of that was between the roll coat line versus Phase 7? And is there any more that we should expect in the fourth quarter?

也許只是做家事。您談到了調試費用。其中有多少是在滾塗生產線和第 7 階段之間進行的？第四季我們還能期待什麼嗎？

Well, I would say it's fair to bet. The majority of that was related to the Warrick roll coat four start-up, okay? As we've talked in the past, Trentwood's -- even though these start-ups are always difficult, and there's some uncertainty associated with them. For Trentwood, who's done seven -- six of these prior, they managed through this very well. And so very little impact of that cost was part of that $20 million.

好吧，我認為打賭是公平的。其中大部分與 Warrick 卷塗四件啟動有關，好嗎？正如我們過去談到的，特倫特伍德——儘管這些新創企業總是很困難，並且存在一些不確定性。對於特倫特伍德來說，他們之前已經完成過七次——其中六次，他們很好地完成了這項任務。因此，這筆成本對 2000 萬美元的影響很小。

Now I will say we do expect less cost through the balance of the year. We expect that number to be lower, as I mentioned in my comments, and then to have this well positioned to fully execute in January of next year.

現在我想說的是，我們確實預計今年餘下時間的成本會減少。正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們預計這個數字會更低，然後我們將在明年 1 月做好全面實施的準備。

Timna Tanners, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Timna Tanners。

Keith, nice to catch up. I wanted to hear a little bit more about the impact of tariffs. I feel like that we're getting kind of into that a couple of quarters since they've been announced. And how you -- any pushback on prices with your customers? Any ability to take more share from import or anything else you can elaborate on would be great.

基思，很高興認識你。我想進一步了解關稅的影響。我感覺自從這些消息公佈以來，我們已經在幾個季度內開始進入這個階段了。您如何向客戶提出價格方面的要求？任何能夠從進口中獲得更多份額的能力或任何您能詳細說明的事情都將非常棒。

Yes. Nice to hear you again. Yes, the tariffs, we remain neutral to slightly positive from our perspective. As you know, all of our facilities are North America based. We do have one extrusion facility in Canada. But the impact to us is, as I said, neutral to slightly positive. And I'll explain the positives, and you mentioned those quite well, quite frankly, in your opening comments there.

是的。很高興再次聽到您的聲音。是的，對於關稅，從我們的角度來看，我們保持中立或略微積極的態度。如您所知，我們所有的設施都位於北美。我們在加拿大確實有一個擠壓工廠。但正如我所說，對我們的影響是中性到略微積極的。我會解釋積極的方面，您在開場白中坦率地很好地提到了這些。

First of all, what we've seen is a large move on the premiums associated with the LME. And so as we know, the majority, if not all of our business has pretty straight pass-through on those costs. So we enable that, move that through to our customers. We're mindful that, that's gone up significantly and that could come down, but we'll see how negotiations progress with USMCA and other things.

首先，我們看到的是與倫敦金屬交易所相關的溢價出現大幅波動。因此，正如我們所知，我們的大部分（如果不是全部）業務都相當直接地轉嫁了這些成本。因此，我們實現了這一點，並將其傳遞給我們的客戶。我們注意到，這一數字已經大幅上升，但可能會下降，但我們將觀察 USMCA 和其他事項的談判進展。

But on the positive side, what we've done in the marketplace is that it is a little more difficult for imports, and they've come into more about the same type of inability to rapidly lower their prices below us as a result of that premium.

但從正面的一面來看，我們在市場上所做的就是讓進口產品變得更加困難，而且由於溢價，進口產品也同樣無法迅速將價格降至低於我們的水平。

And so far, we're seeing better demand for domestic products. And because of the large portfolio of products that we provide to our service centers and other customers in the marketplace, we're seeing good pull on that demand as you can reflect in our general engineering business that throughout the year, which has held up amazingly well, not just from a demand perspective, but also on the pricing front.

到目前為止，我們看到對國產產品的需求增加。由於我們向服務中心和市場上的其他客戶提供大量產品，我們看到了對這種需求的良好拉動，正如您在我們全年的通用工程業務中所看到的，這不僅從需求角度，而且在定價方面都表現得非常好。

So we see opportunities. Again, we've got a lot of this capacity. The Trentwood capacity can -- we expect to also help us strengthen on the GE side of the business. And if we get a little bit of tailwind beginning in 2026, I expect really strong demand for GE products. And I expect opportunities for additional price enhancement of our business.

因此我們看到了機會。再說一次，我們擁有很多這樣的能力。我們希望特倫特伍德的產能也能幫助我們加強通用電氣的業務。如果我們從 2026 年開始獲得一點順風，我預計對 GE 產品的需求將非常強勁。我預計我們的業務將有機會進一步提高價格。

So I think we're at the front of the bow wave of this, and we're riding it very well. And I'm very, very pleased with how the operations are performing and meeting this current demand.

所以我認為我們正處於這股浪潮的最前線，而且我們正乘風破浪。我對營運的進展和滿足當前需求的情況感到非常非常滿意。

Okay. I wanted to touch base, particularly on the packaging side. I know you said that was strong, but we're hearing from our colleague who covers the space that there's some concern about cost inflation impacting demand. I wonder if maybe you're shielded from that a bit, given that you're doing more of the ends and tabs or any thoughts on the impact on packaging?

好的。我想進行交流，特別是在包裝方面。我知道您說這很強勁，但我們從負責該領域的同事那裡聽說，人們擔心成本通膨會影響需求。我想知道，考慮到您更多地負責末端和標籤的工作，您是否可以免受這些影響，或者您對包裝的影響有何看法？

Yes. Timna, this -- we're seeing still overall good demand on our products. And I think there some industry incidents can exasperate some of the supply scenario at different times. I know we had our challenges at the beginning of the year. I think others have had some challenges. But overall, I feel the demand for aluminum substrate products and packaging are very strong.

是的。蒂姆納，我們看到我們的產品整體需求仍然良好。我認為一些行業事件可能會在不同時期加劇某些供應狀況。我知道我們在年初遇到了挑戰。我認為其他人也遇到了一些挑戰。但總體而言，我感覺對鋁基板產品和包裝的需求非常強勁。

I'll remind you that a good portion of our business is food related, and that's held up very strong. And we still continue to see that, quite frankly, outpace the demand for beverage. And so we may be insulated from that somewhat based on the markets that we serve. But overall, we're not seeing anyone reduce or wanting to reduce the capacities that we're contracted for.

我要提醒您，我們的業務很大一部分與食品有關，而且這一部分業務一直非常強勁。坦白說，我們仍然看到這一增長超過了對飲料的需求。因此，根據我們所服務的市場，我們可能在某種程度上不受這種影響。但總體而言，我們沒有看到任何人減少或想要減少我們承包的產能。

As a matter of fact, we continue to have customers asking for more. So that's really the basis behind our comments and where we see our business.

事實上，我們不斷收到客戶的要求。這確實是我們評論背後的基礎以及我們對業務的看法。

Okay. That makes sense. Along those same lines, actually, one of your competitors had an outage recently that's caused some attention to the space and where there might be spare capacity. So I don't think you're a player in the auto sheet market, but do you have spare capacity if needed to fill in for can sheet?

好的。這很有道理。同樣，實際上，你們的一個競爭對手最近發生了停電，這引起了人們對該領域以及可能有閒置容量的地方的關注。所以我不認為您是汽車板市場的參與者，但如果需要填補汽車板的空缺，您是否有多餘的產能？

We're actually fairly full right now, Timna. I mean the -- it's really difficult for me to see when others have challenges because I've lived those before. A lot of times, we're in positions to help our customers. I think our customers have expectations that Kaiser, we want you to hit your commitments to us. And we're beginning to do those very well as our equipment ramps up.

事實上，我們現在已經很飽了，蒂姆娜。我的意思是——當別人遇到挑戰時我真的很難看到，因為我以前也經歷過這些。很多時候，我們都可以幫助我們的客戶。我認為我們的客戶對 Kaiser 抱有期望，我們希望您能夠履行對我們的承諾。隨著我們設備的升級，我們開始做得非常好。

Really not in a strong pace to do anything other than that. As you know, a lot of that is probably bare product that's coming into the market. And we've been busy shifting our capacity more to the coated side. So we're really not one of the areas to help on the bare in a very big way.

確實沒有足夠的精力去做除此以外的事情。如您所知，其中許多可能只是進入市場的裸產品。我們一直忙於將產能更多地轉移到塗層方面。因此，我們實際上並不是能夠為貧民窟提供大力幫助的地區之一。

Okay. And I guess I'll just ask one last one, but kind of a big picture. I know you talked about 2025 guidance, and it's appreciated, but we're almost done with the year and looking ahead to 2026, how do we think about the cadence of the ramp-up of some of these -- the new facilities? Is it full run rate Q1 and straight line? Or do we kind of have some gradual improvements even as the year progresses?

好的。我想我只想問最後一個問題，但這是一個宏觀問題。我知道您談到了 2025 年的指導，對此我表示讚賞，但是今年已經快結束了，展望 2026 年，我們如何看待其中一些新設施的建設節奏？它是全運行率 Q1 和直線嗎？或者隨著時間的推移，我們是否會取得一些逐步的進展？

Yes. It's a great question. We -- look, for purposes of making sure we don't disappoint customers, there's somewhat of a ramp rate that we're going to be putting into our outlooks in the first half of the year. But those are going to be marginal with strong demand, expectations are that all the businesses, all these major growth investments will be behind us.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我們－為了確保我們不會讓客戶失望，我們將在上半年的展望中加入一定的上升率。但由於需求強勁，這些都將是邊際效應，預計所有業務、所有這些主要的成長投資都將過去。

And we're, quite frankly, ready to hit the run at rate buttons as quick as we can. Again, we'll give you more insight as to what we think the cadence of that by probably first half to second half. I think it's fair to say the second half with demand coming with, I think, ramp moving up on aero as packaging continues to show full ramp rate and especially if GE becomes on a little stronger next year.

坦白說，我們已準備好盡快按下運行按鈕。再次，我們將為您提供更多關於我們認為的上半年到下半年的節奏的見解。我認為可以公平地說，下半年需求將隨之而來，我認為，隨著包裝繼續顯示出全速增長的速度，航空需求將不斷上升，特別是如果通用電氣明年變得更加強大的話。

I think you'll see some -- we'll begin to see some of these rates that we had expectations for this business. And I'm going to be very thankful that we've got these growth assets in place to be able to take full advantage of those next year. So I'm pretty excited about next year.

我想你會看到一些——我們將開始看到我們對這項業務所預期的一些利率。我將非常感謝我們擁有這些成長資產，以便能夠在明年充分利用它們。所以我對明年感到非常興奮。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Keith Harvey, CEO, for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想把發言權交還給執行長 Keith Harvey，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you, operator. Thank you for your time and interest in Kaiser. We're excited about our future, and we look forward to sharing our full year 2025 results in February of next year. Have a good rest of your day, and thank you.

謝謝您，接線生。感謝您對 Kaiser 的時間和關注。我們對未來充滿期待，並期待明年 2 月分享我們 2025 年全年業績。祝您今天過得愉快，謝謝。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。