家樂氏 (K) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Kellanova Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Kellanova 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I will turn the call over to John Renwick, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning for Kellanova Company. Please go ahead.

此時，我將把電話轉給 Kellanova 公司投資人關係和企業規劃副總裁 John Renwick。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for a review of our third quarter results when we were Kellogg Company and a discussion of our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023, during which we will be post spin-off Kellanova. I'm joined this morning by Steve Cahillane, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Amit Banati, our Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線生。早安，感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們還是 Kellogg Company 時的第三季業績，並討論我們對 2023 年第四季的展望，在此期間我們將分拆 Kellanova。今天上午，我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Steve Cahillane 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的副主席兼財務長阿米特·巴納蒂 (Amit Banati)。

Slide #3 shows our forward-looking statements disclaimer. As you are aware, certain statements made today, such as projections for Kellanova's future performance, are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the third slide of this presentation as well as to our public SEC filings.

投影片 #3 顯示了我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。如您所知，今天所做的某些陳述（例如對 Kellanova 未來業績的預測）屬於前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預測有重大差異。有關可能導致這些結果不同的因素的更多信息，請參閱本簡報的第三張幻燈片以及我們向 SEC 公開的文件。

A recording of today's webcast and supporting documents will be archived for at least 90 days on the Investor page of www.kellanova.com. As always, when referring to our results and outlook, unless otherwise noted, we will be referring to them on an organic basis for net sales and on a currency-neutral adjusted basis for operating profit and earnings per share. Please note that we will have discontinued operations impacts to Kellanova's historical financial statements available during our fourth quarter earnings release in February 2024. Until then, any commentary about Kellanova performance is based on estimates and should therefore be viewed as directional.

今天網路廣播的錄音和支援文件將在 www.kellanova.com 的投資者頁面上存檔至少 90 天。像往常一樣，在提及我們的業績和前景時，除非另有說明，否則我們將在淨銷售額的有機基礎上以及在貨幣中性調整後的營業利潤和每股收益的基礎上提及它們。請注意，我們將在 2024 年 2 月發布第四季度收益時提供停止營運對 Kellanova 歷史財務報表的影響。在此之前，任何有關 Kellanova 業績的評論均基於估計，因此應被視為方向性的。

And now I'll turn it over to Steve.

現在我將把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. While our quarter 3 results predated the spinoff, it is exciting to be talking to you as Kellanova for the first time. It bears reminding that Kellanova is a strengthened portfolio with the business, brands and geographies that make Kellanova a global snacks-led powerhouse.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。雖然我們的第三季業績早於分拆，但第一次以 Kellanova 的身份與您交談還是令人興奮。值得提醒的是，Kellanova 是一個強化的產品組合，其業務、品牌和地理使 Kellanova 成為全球零食主導的巨頭。

As shown on Slide #5, over 80% of our annual net sales comes from snacks and emerging markets, both of which have been and will continue to be above-average growth categories and markets. Half of our net sales come from 5 highly differentiated brands, Pringles, Cheez-It, Pop-Tarts, Rice Krispie Treats and Eggo, that offer above-average growth and accretive economics. And we generate half of our revenue from outside of the United States and Canada, giving us geographic diversification, global reach, access to fast-growing emerging markets and the opportunity to expand big United States brands into international markets. And when you see temporary softness in one market, it can be offset elsewhere, which is precisely what we saw in the third quarter.

如投影片 #5 所示，我們超過 80% 的年度淨銷售額來自零食和新興市場，這兩個類別和市場的成長一直並將繼續高於平均水平。我們一半的淨銷售額來自 5 個高度差異化的品牌：Pringles、Cheez-It、Pop-Tarts、Rice Krispie Treats 和 Eggo，這些品牌提供了高於平均水平的成長和增值經濟效益。我們一半的收入來自美國和加拿大以外的地區，這使我們能夠實現地理多元化、全球影響力、進入快速成長的新興市場以及將美國大品牌擴展到國際市場的機會。當你看到一個市場暫時疲軟時，其他市場的疲軟可能會被其他市場所抵消，這正是我們在第三季看到的情況。

Kellanova is also a company with a sharpened strategy, one that better suits a global snacking powerhouse, while still emphasizing the capabilities that enable us to win in the marketplace, protect our planet and serve our communities, and deliver attractive and dependable financial returns. This strategy appropriately called differentiate, drive and deliver is shown on Slide #6.

Kellanova 也是一家擁有更銳利策略的公司，該策略更適合全球零食巨頭，同時仍然強調使我們能夠贏得市場、保護我們的地球和服務我們的社區以及提供有吸引力和可靠的財務回報的能力。這種策略被恰當地稱為差異化、推動和交付，如幻燈片#6 所示。

But before we enter the Kellanova era, let's talk about our final quarter as Kellogg Company on Slide #7. We turned in another good performance in the third quarter. Organic net sales growth was sustained at an on-algorithm pace despite a challenging environment marked by a financially strained consumer and the long-awaited return toward normal levels of elasticities. We're pleased with our continued restoration of gross profit margins. As service levels have returned to normal levels, productivity initiatives are delivering savings and pricing has caught up with input cost inflation. And this enabled us to deliver above-algorithm growth in operating profit even as we increased our brand building at a double-digit rate.

但在我們進入 Kellanova 時代之前，讓我們先談談幻燈片#7 中 Kellogg 公司的最後一個季度。第三季我們再次取得了良好的業績。儘管消費者財務緊張以及期待已久的恢復到正常彈性水平的環境充滿挑戰，但有機淨銷售額增長仍然按照演算法的速度持續增長。我們對毛利率的持續恢復感到滿意。隨著服務水準恢復到正常水平，生產力措施正在節省開支，定價也趕上了投入成本的上漲。這使我們能夠在以兩位數的速度加強品牌建立的同時，實現營業利潤的高於演算法的成長。

Our free cash flow was strong, ahead of last year, even with upfront outlays related to the spin-off. And speaking of the spin-off, we executed it with excellence. So it was another busy and successful quarter, and we are heading into the Kellanova era from a position of strength.

即使有分拆相關的前期支出，我們的自由現金流也比去年強勁。說到分拆，我們表現得非常好。因此，這是另一個忙碌而成功的季度，我們正以強勢地位進入 Kellanova 時代。

Externally, the focus lately has been less about our improved portfolio strategy and long-term growth prospects and much more about current industry dynamics. Fair enough, but I would remind everyone that most of what we are seeing today from decelerating cost inflation to restoration of service levels and margins, to a return to normal levels of elasticities have been in our budget, our guidance and our commentary for quite some time. This is illustrated on Slide #8.

從外部來看，最近的焦點不再是我們改進的投資組合策略和長期成長前景，而是更專注於當前的產業動態。公平地說，但我想提醒大家，我們今天看到的大部分內容，從成本通膨放緩到服務水平和利潤的恢復，再到恢復到正常的彈性水平，已經在我們的預算、我們的指導和我們的評論中出現了相當多的時間。時間。幻燈片 #8 對此進行了說明。

The decelerated net sales growth was inevitable because after significant cumulative price increases, including right through the second quarter of 2023, there was going to be a return to typical levels of elasticities in our industry. And across our categories and across our regions, we have seen this rise in elasticities every quarter this year. We don't think this is about price gaps over private label, which largely remain below 2019 levels. And the relatively small shares of private label in our categories remain around their 2019 levels.

淨銷售額成長放緩是不可避免的，因為在累積價格大幅上漲之後，包括直到 2023 年第二季度，我們行業的彈性水平將恢復到典型水平。在我們的各個類別和各個地區，我們今年每季都看到彈性上升。我們認為這與自有品牌的價格差距無關，自有品牌的價格差距基本上仍低於 2019 年的水準。我們類別中相對較小的自有品牌份額仍保持在 2019 年的水平左右。

We did have a couple of additional factors that impacted our volumes in the quarter, but again, these were anticipated. One was lapping trade inventory replenishment from last year, notably in North America cereal and snacks and the other, also in North America, was our decision to delay merchandising activity earlier this year in order to gain full confidence in our return to high service levels, particularly given the lead time required for quality display activity. This caused us some volume in the second and third quarter. But by the latter part of quarter 3, we had returned in merchandising, and we expect quality display activity to follow. In short, these conditions and timing differences will pass.

我們確實有一些其他因素影響了我們本季的銷量，但同樣，這些因素都是預期的。一個是去年的貿易庫存補充，特別是在北美穀物和零食，另一個也是在北美，我們決定推遲今年早些時候的銷售活動，以便對我們恢復高服務水平獲得充分的信心，特別是考慮到高品質展示活動所需的準備時間。這給我們帶來了第二和第三季的一些銷售。但到了第三季後半段，我們已經恢復了商品銷售，我們預計高品質的展示活動將會隨之而來。簡而言之，這些條件和時間差異將會過去。

Our brand-building investment is increasing. We are returning to merchandising, and we are ramping back up our innovation. We will return to more balanced volume and price/mix within our net sales growth over time, accompanied by sustained improvement in profit margins.

我們的品牌建立投入不斷增加。我們正在回歸行銷，並加大創新。隨著時間的推移，我們將在淨銷售額成長範圍內恢復更平衡的銷售和價格/組合，同時利潤率持續提高。

Meantime, our brands remain in great shape. And our focus remains on growing our biggest, most differentiated brands around the world. Shown on Slide #9, these brands accounted for half of Kellanova's net sales in 2022 and a little more than that so far in 2023 as their growth continues to outpace the rest of the portfolio. In the quarter and year-to-date periods, we increased brand-building investment behind these advantaged brands at strong double-digit rates year-on-year, faster than the rest of the portfolio. As we prioritize investment behind these brands, we expect them to continue to lead our growth and contribute positively to margin mix.

同時，我們的品牌仍保持良好狀態。我們的重點仍然是發展全球最大、最差異化的品牌。如投影片 #9 所示，這些品牌佔 2022 年 Kellanova 淨銷售額的一半，並且比 2023 年迄今的淨銷售額略高一些，因為它們的成長持續超過產品組合的其他品牌。在本季和年初至今，我們以強勁的兩位數年速度增加了這些優勢品牌背後的品牌建立投資，速度快於其他投資組合。當我們優先考慮這些品牌背後的投資時，我們預計它們將繼續引領我們的成長並對利潤率組合做出積極貢獻。

Our focus is also on growing the right way, and Slide #10 shows some of the ways our Better Days Promise program manifested itself during the third quarter. We unveiled new, more ambitious targets for Kellanova, sustained our legacy of helping our communities and found ways to link these activities to our commercial endeavors, and we continue to be recognized for our efforts.

我們的重點還在於以正確的方式成長，投影片 #10 顯示了我們的「更好的日子承諾」計畫在第三季的一些表現方式。我們為 Kellanova 宣布了新的、更雄心勃勃的目標，延續了我們幫助社區的傳統，並找到了將這些活動與我們的商業活動聯繫起來的方法，我們的努力將繼續得到認可。

So let me now turn it over to Amit, who will walk you through our financials, before I come back and discuss each of our businesses in more detail.

因此，現在讓我將其交給阿米特，他將帶您了解我們的財務狀況，然後我再回來更詳細地討論我們的每項業務。

Thanks, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Slide #12 summarizes the results of Kellogg Company, because the spin-off occurred after the quarter ended. Net sales increased by about 4% on an organic basis in quarter 3, which is right on the second half pace implied by our full year guidance. Year-to-date, this translates into 8% organic growth.

謝謝，史蒂夫。大家，早安。投影片 #12 總結了家樂氏的業績，因為分拆發生在季度結束後。第三季淨銷售額有機成長約 4%，這與我們全年指引所暗示的下半年成長率相符。今年迄今為止，這相當於 8% 的有機成長。

Operating profit increased by 10% on an adjusted and currency-neutral basis, sustaining double-digit growth in spite of higher A&P investment and the divestiture of our Russia business. Year-to-date, this translates to 14% growth, which is ahead of the pace implied by our full year guidance.

儘管 A&P 投資增加以及俄羅斯業務剝離，但在調整後和貨幣中性的基礎上，營業利潤增長了 10%，仍保持兩位數增長。今年迄今為止，這相當於 14% 的成長，高於我們全年指引所暗示的速度。

Earnings per share on an adjusted and currency-neutral basis decreased by about 2% year-on-year in quarter 3 and increased by 2% year-to-date. This is ahead of the pace implied by our full year guidance, delivering year-on-year growth in spite of some 11- to 12-percentage points of headwind from macroeconomic factors driving higher interest expense and lower pension income.

調整後且貨幣中性的每股盈餘在第三季年減約 2%，而年初至今則成長 2%。儘管宏觀經濟因素帶​​來約 11 至 12 個百分點的阻力，導致利息支出上升和退休金收入下降，但這一速度仍領先於我們全年指引所暗示的速度，實現了同比增長。

And free cash flow came in at $894 million, which is higher than last year, even in spite of onetime outlays related to the spin-off. This put cash flow well on pace towards our full year guidance for Kellogg Company.

儘管有與分拆相關的一次性支出，但自由現金流仍達 8.94 億美元，高於去年。這使得現金流完全符合我們對家樂氏公司的全年指導。

So as you step back, you see that our growth in net sales and operating profit were on algorithm or better in the quarter and year-to-date period, and EPS would have been as well were it not for the macro-related pressures on our nonoperating items. And we were well on pace to achieve the full year guidance we had given for the Kellogg Company.

因此，當您退後一步時，您會發現本季和年初至今我們的淨銷售額和營業利潤的成長符合演算法或更好，如果沒有宏觀相關的壓力，每股收益也會如此。我們的非經營項目。我們正在順利實現我們為家樂氏公司提供的全年指導。

Now let's take a look at each metric in closer detail, starting with our net sales growth on Slide #13. As expected, price elasticities rose around the world, putting pressure on volume, though this volume did come in modestly better than projected. Price/mix moderated sequentially from recent quarters as we began to lap some of our largest revenue growth management actions last year. The divestiture of our Russia business, which occurred in July, clipped about 1 percentage point from our overall net sales growth in quarter 3 and will do so again in quarter 4.

現在，讓我們從投影片#13 上的淨銷售額成長開始，更詳細地了解每個指標。正如預期的那樣，全球價格彈性上升，給成交量帶來壓力，儘管成交量確實略好於預期。隨著我們去年開始實施一些最大的收入成長管理行動，價格/組合從最近幾季開始連續放緩。我們於 7 月進行的俄羅斯業務剝離使我們第三季的整體淨銷售額成長減少了約 1 個百分點，並將在第四季度再次出現這種情況。

Foreign currency translation once again was a headwind of about negative 3 percentage points. And based on where rates are today, we are probably facing a similar headwind in quarter 4. Most of this is related to the devaluation of the Nigerian naira, partially offset by strength in the euro, pound sterling and Mexican peso.

外幣換算再次成為約負 3 個百分點的逆風。根據今天的利率水平，我們可能在第四季度面臨類似的逆風。其中大部分與尼日利亞奈拉貶值有關，部分被歐元、英鎊和墨西哥比索的走強所抵消。

We estimate that portions of the business that represent Kellanova generated better organic growth than total Kellogg Company in the third quarter. So even with the long anticipated rise in elasticities and the lapping of last year's pricing actions, our organic net sales growth remains within our long-term target range.

我們估計，代表 Kellanova 的部分業務在第三季度比整個 Kellogg 公司產生了更好的有機成長。因此，儘管人們期待已久的彈性上升以及去年定價行為的結束，我們的有機淨銷售成長仍然在我們的長期目標範圍內。

Now let's discuss gross profit, starting with Slide #14. As we've stated many times, our focus during the period of heightened input cost inflation and supply bottlenecks and shortages was on growing gross profit dollars. And as you can see, we have done just that every quarter this year.

現在讓我們從投影片 #14 開始討論毛利。正如我們多次指出的，在投入成本通膨加劇以及供應瓶頸和短缺期間，我們的重點是毛利的成長。正如您所看到的，我們今年每個季度都這樣做了。

And as you can see on Slide #15, we have also made good progress in restoring our gross profit margin as well. We're still not back to our 2019 prepandemic levels, but this restoration of margins is proceeding faster than expected with year-on-year expansion in each quarter so far this year. This progress also applies to the Kellanova business, which gets an immediate lift from the absence of North America cereal, and should continue to benefit from the same drivers going forward: price realization catching up to input cost inflation, improving supply chain conditions, and the ongoing combination of productivity, revenue growth management and mix shift towards our most differentiated brands.

正如您在投影片 #15 中看到的，我們在恢復毛利率方面也取得了良好進展。我們仍未回到 2019 年大流行前的水平，但利潤率的恢復速度快於預期，今年迄今為止每個季度都實現了同比擴張。這項進展也適用於 Kellanova 業務，該業務因缺乏北美穀物而立即得到提振，並且應繼續受益於未來相同的驅動因素：價格實現趕上投入成本通膨、改善供應鏈條件以及生產力、收入成長管理和轉變為我們最具差異化品牌的組合的持續結合。

Slide #16 shows how our sustained top line growth and margin expansion resulted in another quarter of double-digit growth in operating profit. Keep in mind that this growth includes the divestiture of Russia, and it also includes a double-digit increase in brand building on a currency-neutral basis.

投影片 #16 顯示了我們持續的營收成長和利潤率擴張如何導致營業利潤又一個季度實現兩位數成長。請記住，這種成長包括俄羅斯的剝離，也包括在貨幣中性的基礎上品牌建設的兩位數成長。

Slide #17 indicates that we are not only restoring our margins at the gross profit level, but at the operating profit level as well. We have delivered year-on-year expansion in operating margin in each quarter of this year, putting our year-to-date margin a full 100 basis points ahead of last year and ahead of our own projections as Kellanova will start immediately with a modestly higher operating margin just from the absence of North America cereal. And we expect to continue to improve our margin going forward as we discussed at our Day at K investor event. This, along with top line growth propelled by our strong brands and growth-oriented categories and markets, give us confidence in sustaining profit growth.

投影片 #17 表明，我們不僅恢復了毛利水準的利潤率，而且還恢復了營業利潤水準的利潤率。今年每季我們的營業利潤率都實現了同比增長，使我們的年初至今利潤率比去年提前了整整 100 個基點，也超出了我們自己的預測，因為 Kellanova 將立即以適度的價格開始更高的營業利潤率只是因為缺少北美穀物。正如我們在 K 投資者活動日上討論的那樣，我們預計未來將繼續提高我們的利潤率。再加上我們強大的品牌以及以成長為導向的品類和市場推動的營收成長，讓我們對維持利潤成長充滿信心。

Moving down the income statement. Slide #18 shows that our adjusted basis earnings per share growth in quarter 3 was once again mostly attributable to operating profit, which has grown enough to more than offset what are severe macro-related headwinds within our below-the-line items. Those below-the-line pressures were expected and will continue through the year.

將損益表向下移動。第 18 張投影片顯示，我們第三季調整後的每股基本收益成長再次主要歸因於營業利潤，營業利潤的成長足以抵銷我們線下專案中與宏觀相關的嚴重阻力。這些線下壓力是預料之中的，並將持續一整年。

Interest expense increased significantly year-on-year in the quarter and the year-to-date period due to higher interest rates. Other income decreased sharply year-on-year in each of the first 3 quarters this year, reflecting the accounting of pension and post-retirement plan asset values stemming from last year's decline in the financial markets and the rising interest rates. Our effective tax rate in quarter 3 was up year-on-year, keeping our year-to-date rate at the 22% we've been expecting for the full year.

由於利率上升，本季和年初至今的利息支出較去年同期大幅增加。今年前三季其他收入均較去年同期大幅下降，反映出去年金融市場下跌和利率上升導致退休金和退休後計畫資產價值的會計。我們第三季的有效稅率較去年同期上升，將年初至今的稅率維持在我們全年預期的 22%。

Average shares outstanding were again up slightly year-on-year in quarter 3, and we would expect that to be the case for the full year as well. Foreign currency translation was positive to earnings per share in quarter 3 as strength in European and Mexican currencies more than offset what is a relatively small impact from Nigerian naira at the EPS level.

第三季度，平均流通股再次年比小幅上升，我們預計全年也是如此。外幣換算對第三季每股盈餘有正面影響，因為歐洲和墨西哥貨幣的強勢足以抵消奈及利亞奈拉對每股盈餘水準相對較小的影響。

Turning to Slide #19. We see that our free cash flow year-to-date is ahead of the prior year, even in spite of onetime cash outlays related to the spin-off and despite lapping a year ago period in which our capital expenditure was delayed because of supply disruptions. We are pleased with our cash flow conversion, which is higher than last year despite deal factors. This year-to-date free cash flow performance put us well on our way to achieving the full year guidance of $1 billion to $1.1 billion that we had communicated for the Kellogg Company.

轉向投影片 #19。我們看到，我們今年迄今為止的自由現金流量領先於上一年，儘管與分拆相關的一次性現金支出，以及儘管一年前我們的資本支出因供應中斷而被推遲。我們對現金流轉換感到滿意，儘管有交易因素，現金流轉換仍高於去年。今年迄今為止的自由現金流表現使我們有望實現我們為家樂氏公司傳達的 10 億至 11 億美元的全年指引。

Meanwhile, we continue to reduce our debt leverage year-on-year, further enhancing our financial flexibility. The slide shows how our net debt continued to decrease even as we continue to deliver higher operating profit and therefore EBITDA. This was our net debt at the end of quarter prior to the spin-off. Upon the spin-off, the transfer of net debt to W.K. Kellogg Company was executed and is estimated to be approximately $600 million.

同時，我們繼續同比降低債務槓桿，進一步增強財務彈性。這張投影片顯示了我們的淨債務如何持續減少，儘管我們繼續實現更高的營業利潤和 EBITDA。這是我們分拆前季末的淨債務。分拆後，淨債務轉移至 W.K.家樂氏公司被執行，預計價值約 6 億美元。

Now let's discuss our outlook at Kellanova now that W.K. Kellogg Company, our North America cereal business, is no longer in our portfolio. Work is underway to prepare Kellanova financials for all 4 quarters of 2022 and the first 3 quarters of 2023, treating W.K. KC as a discontinued operation. We will have those completed a few months from now, and we plan to share them with you at our next quarterly earnings release in early February.

現在讓我們來討論一下我們對 Kellanova 的展望，因為 W.K.我們的北美穀物業務家樂氏公司 (Kellogg Company) 不再屬於我們的投資組合。目前正在準備 Kellanova 2022 年所有 4 個季度和 2023 年前 3 個季度的財務數據，其中包括 W.K. KC 已停止營運。我們將在幾個月後完成這些工作，並計劃在二月初發布的下一個季度收益報告中與您分享。

In the meantime, Slide #20 offers estimates in absolute dollars for the fourth quarter, our initial quarter at Kellanova. Kellanova was projected to deliver net sales of approximately $3.1 billion in the quarter. Excluding W.K. KC from the base and excluding about 1% negative impact of the Russia divestiture and foreign currency translation that at current rates would be similar to the negative impact we saw on net sales in quarter 3, we believe organic net sales growth will be within our long-term growth target even as we assume continued elasticity impact and the lapping of the year-on-year price increases.

同時，投影片 #20 提供了第四季度（Kellanova 的第一季）的絕對美元估算。 Kellanova 預計本季淨銷售額約為 31 億美元。不包括W.K. KC 從基數來看，排除俄羅斯資產剝離和外幣換算約1% 的負面影響，以目前的匯率計算，這將類似於我們在第三季度看到的對淨銷售額的負面影響，我們相信有機淨銷售成長將在我們長期的範圍內。即使我們假設持續的彈性影響和同比價格上漲的影響，長期成長目標也是如此。

We expect the restoration of gross profit margin to continue, increasing year-on-year and reaching a level in quarter 4 of just over 33%. We project adjusted basis operating profit of approximately $380 million to $390 million, which we estimate will translate into year-on-year growth that is within our long-term growth target, excluding W.K. KC from the base and excluding the small impacts of this year's Russia divestiture and currency translation.

我們預計毛利率將繼續恢復，年增，並在第四季達到略高於33%的水平。我們預計調整後的基本營業利潤約為 3.8 億至 3.9 億美元，我們預計這將轉化為符合我們長期成長目標（不包括 W.K.）的同比增長。 KC 來自基數，不包括今年俄羅斯資產剝離和貨幣換算的小影響。

We project adjusted basis earnings per share of approximately $0.73 to $0.76 after accounting for interest expense of around $85 million and other income of around $25 million, both of which will continue to reflect the year-on-year headwinds we've experienced all year. In short, we expect Kellanova's quarter 4 2023 to remain within our long-term algorithm for net sales and operating profit growth.

在計入約 8,500 萬美元的利息支出和約 2,500 萬美元的其他收入後，我們預計調整後的每股基本收益約為 0.73 至 0.76 美元，這兩項收入將繼續反映我們全年經歷的同比逆風。簡而言之，我們預計 Kellanova 2023 年第 4 季的淨銷售額和營業利潤成長將保持在我們的長期演算法之內。

Looking to '24. As indicated at our Day at K investor event a few months ago, we expect to sustain on-algorithm growth on sales and profit. We are still in our budgeting process, and we will provide those details at our normal time in February.

展望'24。正如幾個月前的 Day at K 投資者活動所表明的那樣，我們預計銷售額和利潤將保持演算法上的成長。我們仍在製定預算過程中，我們將在二月的正常時間提供這些詳細資訊。

Allow me to summarize on Slide #21. We feel very good about our financial performance and conditions heading into quarter 4 as the new Kellanova. Our top line growth remains ahead of our long-term target. Our profit margins continue to recover more quickly than we had anticipated. Our balance sheet is solid as is our free cash flow even as we executed a transformational spin-off.

請容許我對投影片 #21 進行總結。作為新的 Kellanova，我們對進入第四季度的財務業績和狀況感到非常滿意。我們的營收成長仍然領先於我們的長期目標。我們的利潤率繼續恢復得比我們預期的更快。即使我們進行了轉型性的分拆，我們的資產負債表和自由現金流也是穩健的。

Let me now turn it back to Steve for a run-through of our businesses around the world.

現在讓我把它轉回給史蒂夫，讓他概述我們在世界各地的業務。

Thanks, Amit. Slide #23 splits our portfolio into category groups to help remind you of their relative sizes and how Kellanova's portfolio is clearly oriented toward growth. Beginning in the fourth quarter, Kellanova will no longer have the North America cereal portion nor the very small Caribbean cereal portion of international cereal. As you can see on the slide, the businesses that will remain with Kellanova continue to drive most of our growth in quarter 3.

謝謝，阿米特。投影片 #23 將我們的投資組合分為多個類別組，以幫助提醒您它們的相對規模以及 Kellanova 的投資組合如何明確以成長為導向。從第四季開始，Kellanova 將不再銷售北美穀物食品部分，也不再銷售國際穀物食品中極小的加勒比海穀物食品部分。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，保留在 Kellanova 的業務將繼續推動我們第三季的大部分成長。

As we walk through our regions, which is how we are structured, we will once again organize our discussion around the businesses that comprise Kellanova first, followed by the North America cereal business that is now part of W.K. Kellogg Co. We'll start with the region's most exposed to emerging markets.

當我們回顧我們的地區時（這就是我們的結構），我們將再次圍繞 Kellanova 的業務進行討論，然後是現在屬於 W.K. 一部分的北美穀物業務。我們將從該地區最受新興市場影響的地區開始。

Slide #24 shows the financial performance of our AMEA region. Once again, this region generated double-digit organic net sales growth on top of extremely strong comparisons. It again expanded its operating profit margin year-on-year in the third quarter and it again posted exceptional profit growth, up 14% on an adjusted and currency-neutral basis. And this profit was delivered in spite of high cost inflation and substantial reinvestment into the business.

幻燈片 #24 顯示了我們 AMEA 地區的財務績效。在極其強勁的比較基礎上，該地區再次實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額成長。第三季度，其營業利潤率再次同比擴大，並再次實現了非凡的利潤增長，在調整後和貨幣中性的基礎上增長了 14%。儘管成本通膨高企且對該業務進行了大量再投資，但仍實現了這一利潤。

Within AMEA, we see on Slide #25 that snacks turned in another quarter of double-digit organic growth in net sales. This organic growth was again broad-based across Australia, Asia and Africa and the Middle East. In market, Pringles continues to gain share in the region with notably strong outperformance relative to the category this quarter in Australia and Japan.

在 AMEA 內，我們在幻燈片 #25 中看到零食的淨銷售額又實現了兩位數的有機成長。這種有機成長再次遍及澳洲、亞洲、非洲和中東。在市場上，品客洋芋片繼續擴大該地區的份額，本季的表現明顯優於澳洲和日本的同類產品。

As shown on Slide 26, AMEA cereal also sustained growth in the third quarter in spite of lapping elevated year ago growth. Growth was broad-based with notable growth in Australia, Africa and Southeast Asia. And in market, our overall share gain in the region was led by notably strong performance in Korea and New Zealand.

如投影片 26 所示，儘管 AMEA 穀物的成長較去年同期有所提高，但第三季仍保持成長。成長基礎廣泛，其中澳洲、非洲和東南亞成長顯著。在市場方面，我們在該地區的整體份額成長主要得益於韓國和紐西蘭的強勁表現。

And then we come to noodles and others shown on Slide #27. This business continues to post exceptional growth even as it begins to lap substantial price increases taken last year to offset cost inflation and weakened currencies. Our business in Nigeria continues to grow strongly, owing to the strength of Dufil's brands and the huge competitive advantage of our distributor arm Multipro. We also continue to expand our Kellogg's noodle business outside of Nigeria.

然後我們來看看投影片 #27 中顯示的麵條和其他東西。儘管去年為抵銷成本通膨和貨幣疲軟而大幅提價，但該業務仍持續保持強勁成長。由於 Dufil 品牌的實力以及我們經銷商 Multipro 的巨大競爭優勢，我們在尼日利亞的業務持續強勁成長。我們也繼續將家樂氏麵條業務擴展到尼日利亞以外的地區。

AMEA enters the Kellanova era with solid momentum. For the full year, we continue to expect to sustain strong growth across all 3 category groups, delivering yet another year of organic net sales growth. And we plan to do that while restoring our profit margins and investing for the future.

AMEA以強勁的勢頭進入Kellanova時代。就全年而言，我們繼續預期所有 3 個品類組將保持強勁成長，從而實現另一年的有機淨銷售額成長。我們計劃在實現這一目標的同時恢復利潤率並為未來進行投資。

Now let's look at our other emerging markets region, Latin America, starting on Slide #29. Kellogg Latin America in quarter 3 delivered another quarter of strong organic net sales growth on top of exceptionally strong growth last year. This organic growth was once again led by our 2 largest markets, Mexico and Brazil, though our Pacific subregion also posted strong growth. It's important to note that roughly half of our volume decline, both in the third quarter and year-to-date, was attributable to price pack architecture changes and SKU rationalization that we have undertaken to improve profitability. We again expanded our operating margin in quarter 3, leading to a fourth straight quarter of operating profit growth of 20% or better.

現在讓我們從幻燈片#29 開始看看我們的其他新興市場地區，即拉丁美洲。家樂氏拉丁美洲公司在去年異常強勁的成長基礎上，第三季又實現了強勁的有機淨銷售額成長。這種有機成長再次由我們兩個最大的市場墨西哥和巴西引領，儘管我們的太平洋次區域也實現了強勁成長。值得注意的是，第三季和今年迄今為止，我們銷量下降的大約一半是由於我們為提高盈利能力而進行的價格包架構變化和 SKU 合理化。我們在第三季再次擴大了營業利潤率，導致營業利潤連續第四個季度成長 20% 或更高。

On Slide #30, we see that our snacks business in Latin America generated strong organic net sales growth in the third quarter, led by sustained momentum in Mexico and Brazil. Both of those markets saw double-digit category growth in salty snacks, and Pringles gained share in both of these key markets. And in portable wholesome snacks, we continue to outpace the category in Mexico.

在幻燈片 #30 上，我們看到，在墨西哥和巴西的持續成長勢頭的帶動下，我們在拉丁美洲的零食業務在第三季度實現了強勁的有機淨銷售額增長。這兩個市場的鹹味零食品類都實現了兩位數的成長，品客洋芋片在這兩個關鍵市場的份額都增加了。在便攜式健康零食方面，我們繼續領先墨西哥的同類產品。

On Slide #31, you can see that Kellogg Latin America grew net sales organically again in cereal in spite of lapping exceptional growth in the year ago quarter. This growth was led by Mexico and our Pacific subregion. Keep in mind that a sliver of this business, our Caribbean cereal business, has since been spun off with W.K. Kellogg Co., but this business represented only about 5% of our Latin America cereal business last year, so it is quite small.

在投影片 #31 上，您可以看到家樂氏拉丁美洲穀物類產品的淨銷售額再次實現有機成長，儘管去年同期實現了出色的成長。這一增長由墨西哥和太平洋次區域帶動。請記住，該業務的一小部分，即我們的加勒比穀物業務，已與 W.K. 分拆。家樂氏公司，但去年這項業務僅占我們拉丁美洲穀物業務的 5% 左右，因此規模相當小。

So Latin America is performing well as it heads into the Kellanova era. For the full year, we continue to expect this region to sustain strong top line momentum with growth in both snacks and cereal and continued recovery in its profit margins. Once again, we can see that both of our emerging markets regions are showing current momentum to go with their outstanding long-term prospects.

因此，拉丁美洲在進入凱拉諾瓦時代時表現良好。就全年而言，我們繼續預期該地區將保持強勁的營收勢頭，零食和穀物食品均實現成長，利潤率持續回升。我們再次看到，我們兩個新興市場地區都顯示出當前的勢頭與其出色的長期前景相匹配。

Now let's turn to our developed markets regions, starting with Kellogg Europe and Slide #33. This region sustained yet another quarter of strong organic net sales growth on top of strong year-earlier growth. Operating profit increased sharply year-on-year, owing to good top line growth, moderating cost pressures and solid margin expansion, all of which more than offset the impact of divesting Russia earlier in the quarter.

現在讓我們轉向我們的已開發市場區域，從家樂氏歐洲和幻燈片 #33 開始。該地區在上年同期強勁成長的基礎上，又維持了一個季度強勁的有機淨銷售額成長。由於收入增長良好、成本壓力緩和以及利潤率穩健擴張，營業利潤同比大幅增長，所有這些都抵消了本季度早些時候剝離俄羅斯業務的影響。

If we look deeper into the business, on Slide #34, you can see that snacks, which represents over half of our sales in Kellogg Europe, continue to lead our growth in this region. In fact, quarter 3 marked the 9th quarter in the last 11 in which we have posted double-digit organic net sales growth in our European snacks business. The growth in quarter 3 also continued to be broad-based with double-digit gains in all 3 of our subregions. In markets, the salty snacks category remains in double-digit growth overall with Pringles outpacing the category in markets like the U.K., France, Spain, Italy and Poland. And in portable wholesome snacks, category growth rates have accelerated into the double digits. And we continued to gain substantial share in the U.K., led by double-digit growth in Rice Krispies Squares.

如果我們更深入研究該業務，在幻燈片 #34 上，您可以看到零食占我們家樂氏歐洲銷售額的一半以上，繼續引領我們在該地區的成長。事實上，第三季是過去 11 個季度中我們歐洲零食業務實現兩位數有機淨銷售額成長的第 9 個季度。第三季的成長也持續廣泛，所有三個次區域均達到兩位數成長。在市場上，鹹味零食類別整體保持兩位數成長，品客洋芋片在英國、法國、西班牙、義大利和波蘭等市場的成長超過了該類別。在便攜式健康零食領域，類別成長率已加速至兩位數。在脆米花廣場兩位數成長的帶動下，我們繼續在英國獲得可觀的份額。

Our cereal business in Europe, shown on Slide #35, posted a small organic decline in net sales in the third quarter. As we've discussed previously, this business has slowed owing to the rising category elasticities. But we are confident in our quarter 4 plans, which includes incremental brand building shifted from previous quarters.

如投影片 #35 所示，我們在歐洲的穀物業務第三季淨銷售額出現小幅有機下降。正如我們之前討論的，由於品類彈性不斷上升，該業務已經放緩。但我們對第四季度的計劃充滿信心，其中包括較前幾個季度轉變的增量品牌建設。

So it was another strong quarter for Kellogg Europe. For the full year, we continue to expect the region to post yet another year of solid top line growth led by snacks. We also remain on track to deliver improved margins during the second half in spite of sustained cost pressures. Our divestiture of our business in Russia was a necessary move in an unfortunate situation. But overall, this region is showing good momentum as it heads into the Kellanova era.

因此，對於家樂氏歐洲來說，這是另一個強勁的季度。就全年而言，我們繼續預期該地區將在零食的帶動下又實現穩健的收入成長。儘管成本壓力持續存在，但我們仍有望在下半年實現更高的利潤率。在不幸的情況下，我們剝離俄羅斯業務是必要的舉措。但總體而言，該地區在進入凱拉諾瓦時代時表現出良好的勢頭。

We'll now turn to Kellogg North America in Slide #37. As anticipated, net sales growth has decelerated in recent quarters as elasticity continued to move higher and as we begin to lap last year's sizable replenishment of trade inventories. However, we continue to recover gross profit margin, reflecting productivity, revenue growth management and diminishing bottlenecks and shortages. This enabled us to substantially increase investment in our brands and still deliver high single-digit operating profit growth year-on-year in the third quarter. The rise in elasticities as well as the lapping of last year's strong growth in inventory replenishment can be seen in all 3 category groups in the third quarter.

現在我們將轉向幻燈片#37 中的家樂氏北美公司。正如預期的那樣，隨著彈性繼續走高以及我們開始消化去年貿易庫存的大量補充，近幾個季度的淨銷售成長有所放緩。然而，我們的毛利率持續恢復，反映出生產力、收入成長管理以及瓶頸和短缺的減少。這使我們能夠大幅增加對品牌的投資，並在第三季度仍實現高個位數的營業利潤同比增長。第三季所有三個品類組中都可以看到彈性的上升以及去年庫存補充強勁增長的情況。

Slide #38 shows snacks, which represents over half of our North America net sales. In the third quarter, its net sales were up very slightly against a very big quarter last year. In market, all 3 of our snacks categories experienced rising elasticities, particularly in higher cash outlay items like multipacks. In addition, we took a more measured approach than many in restoring merchandising activity.

幻燈片 #38 顯示了零食，占我們北美淨銷售額的一半以上。第三季度，其淨銷售額與去年同期相比略有成長。在市場上，我們所有三個零食類別的彈性都在上升，特別是在多包裝等現金支出較高的項目上。此外，在恢復商品銷售活動方面，我們採取了比許多公司更謹慎的方法。

It was a similar story in frozen foods, shown on Slide #39. Our frozen foods net sales were flat in the third quarter. Like snacks, our Eggo business faced a rise in category elasticities. In addition, our Morningstar Farms brand continued to feel the impact of a shakeout in the plant-based category even as it continued to gain share.

冷凍食品也有類似的情況，如幻燈片 #39 所示。我們的冷凍食品第三季淨銷售額持平。與零食一樣，我們的 Eggo 業務也面臨品類彈性的上升。此外，我們的晨星農場品牌儘管繼續獲得份額，但仍繼續感受到植物性類別洗牌的影響。

Now let's turn to our North America cereal business, which forms most of what is now W.K. Kellogg Co. You will get more detail from W.K. Kellogg Co. in its own earnings release. But as shown on Slide #40, this business faced the same dynamics as the Kellanova businesses in the third quarter: flattish sales, reflecting a continued rise in category elasticities and the lapping of strong year-ago growth.

現在讓我們談談我們的北美穀物業務，該業務構成了現在 W.K. 的大部分業務。家樂氏公司 (Kellogg Co.) 您可以從 W.K. 獲得更多詳細資訊。家樂氏公司 (Kellogg Co.) 在其自己的財報發布中。但如投影片 #40 所示，該業務在第三季面臨與 Kellanova 業務相同的動態：銷售額持平，反映出品類彈性持續上升以及去年同期強勁成長的放緩。

Turning to Slide #41. Our North America region is having a good year in terms of balanced financial delivery. We now are bad full commercial activity and feel confident in our ability to execute. Snacks should finish the year solidly in growth, while Frozen is expected to continue to finish with improved performance. We are off to an earlier-than-expected start to margin recovery in this region even as we reinvest more in our brands. And with the spin-off, we become that much more focused and streamlined behind snacks and frozen foods. Simply put, North America, too, is ready to start our new era as Kellanova.

轉向投影片 #41。我們的北美地區在平衡財務交付方面度過了美好的一年。我們現在正在進行全面的商業活動，並對我們的執行能力充滿信心。零食預計今年將穩健成長，而《冰雪奇緣》預計將繼續以改善的業績結束。儘管我們對品牌進行了更多再投資，但該地區的利潤率復甦的開始時間早於預期。隨著分拆，我們在零食和冷凍食品領域變得更加專注和精簡。簡而言之，北美也已準備好開啟 Kellanova 的新時代。

So let me summarize with Slide #43. The third quarter closes the books on the 117-year-old Kellogg Company and does so in a solid way. In spite of rising elasticities across the industry, we continue to deliver good top line growth while getting our service levels back to where they should be and continuing to restore profit margins faster than we had anticipated. And we delivered all that while executing the spin-off of W.K. Kellogg Co.

讓我用投影片#43 來總結一下。擁有 117 年歷史的家樂氏公司 (Kellogg Company) 第三季以穩健的方式結束了帳目。儘管整個行業的彈性不斷增強，但我們繼續實現良好的營收成長，同時使我們的服務水準恢復到應有的水平，並繼續以比我們預期更快的速度恢復利潤率。我們在執行 W.K. 的分拆過程中實現了這一切。家樂氏公司

During the quarter, we made all the final preparations to ensure business continuity and the sustained success of both companies. Our company and the company-parallel operations were successful, and our transition services agreements are in place and in operation. And we now enter the Kellanova era from a position of strength. We're back to full commercial activity. Our free cash flow and balance sheet are strong, giving us good financial flexibility. We are proactively mitigating stranded margins. And we have a plan that should continue to deliver the kind of financial algorithm that you would expect from a portfolio that is weighted towards snacking, emerging markets and highly differentiated brands. In sum, we are on track and ready to deliver as Kellanova.

本季度，我們做好了一切最後準備，以確保業務連續性和兩家公司的持續成功。我們公司和公司並行營運取得了成功，我們的過渡服務協議已到位並正在運行。我們現在從強勢地位進入了凱拉諾瓦時代。我們已恢復全面的商業活動。我們的自由現金流和資產負債表強勁，為我們提供了良好的財務靈活性。我們正在積極減少利潤擱淺。我們有一個計劃，應該繼續提供您期望從側重於零食、新興市場和高度差異化品牌的投資組合中獲得的金融演算法。總而言之，我們已步入正軌，並準備好以 Kellanova 的身份交付成果。

So in closing, I want to first express a heartfelt congratulations and thank you to our entire family of Kellogg employees for the tireless efforts and endless passion that went into executing the spin-off and creating such a promising future for both companies. We wish our former colleagues all the best as they embark on their next chapter as W.K. Kellogg Co. And to our Kellanova employees, I share in your excitement for our future. We entered this new era with a more growth-oriented portfolio, a sharpened strategy and more ambitious financial expectations, and we have just the team to deliver on it.

最後，我想先向家樂氏全體員工表示衷心的祝賀和感謝，感謝你們為執行分拆以及為兩家公司創造如此美好的未來而付出的不懈努力和無盡的熱情。我們祝福我們的前同事在開啟 W.K. 的下一個篇章時一切順利。 Kellogg Co. 對於我們的 Kellanova 員工，我和你們一樣對我們的未來感到興奮。我們帶著更以成長為導向的投資組合、更清晰的策略和更有野心的財務預期進入了這個新時代，而且我們擁有能夠實現這些目標的團隊。

And now we'll be happy to take your questions.

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from Jason English of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自高盛的賈森·英格利希（Jas​​ English）。

A couple of questions in regards to your reiteration of long-term algo for next year. First, you gave a base -- estimated base earnings number at your Analyst Day of around $3.35 for this year. Is that still the right base to use?

關於您重申明年的長期演算法的幾個問題。首先，您在分析師日給出的今年基本獲利預測約為 3.35 美元。這仍然是正確的使用基礎嗎？

I think, Jason, we will update the details when we get to our normal cycle in February once we've had this year's actual latest foreign exchange rates. So I think we'll update the absolutes as we kind of get to February. We're right in the middle of our budgeting process right now. But as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we fully expect to be on our algorithm growth rates we had shared in August.

我認為，傑森，一旦我們獲得了今年的實際最新外匯匯率，我們將在二月進入正常週期時更新詳細資訊。所以我想我們會在二月更新絕對值。我們現在正處於預算流程的中間。但正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們完全期望我們的演算法成長率能夠達到我們在 8 月分享的水平。

Okay. But that $3.35 number for this year, even though we're 10 months through, may not be a good number to anchor to? Is that -- did I -- am I hearing that right?

好的。但今年 3.35 美元的數字，即使我們已經過去 10 個月了，可能不是一個很好的錨定數字？那是——我是——我沒聽錯嗎？

No, we are on track, I mean, from a '23 standpoint, right? We are ahead of pace in the first 9 months. And like I mentioned, we are on track from a '23 standpoint. So we'll share the specific details when we get to February.

不，我的意思是，從 23 年的角度來看，我們正在步入正軌，對嗎？前 9 個月我們處於領先地位。正如我所提到的，從 23 年的角度來看，我們正步入正軌。因此，我們將在二月時分享具體細節。

But that we gave for 2023, as we indicated at that time, that was for a full year estimate of what Kellanova might look like. It's not quite the real what you'll see us report, because we'll have 3 quarters of Kellogg Company and 1 quarter of Kellanova. So that was just a way for you to calculate.

但正如我們當時所指出的，我們給出的 2023 年數據是凱拉諾瓦可能會是什麼樣子的全年估計。您將看到我們的報告並不完全真實，因為我們將擁有家樂氏公司的 3 個季度和 Kellanova 的四分之一。所以這只是你計算的一種方法。

Yes, which is why I'm still trying to anchor to it just because as is evident in today's press release, it's really muddy, right? There's a lot of noise here. So I'm just trying to keep it simple. Okay. And sticking with the long term...

是的，這就是為什麼我仍然試圖錨定它，因為正如今天的新聞稿所示，它真的很泥濘，對吧？這裡有很多噪音。所以我只是想保持簡單。好的。並且堅持長期...

From an underlying business performance standpoint, right, we are right on track with -- on '23.

從基本業務績效的角度來看，我們在 23 年正步入正軌。

Yes. That's good to hear. And I think it came through our results, but there is a lot of noise. And sticking with the long-term algo, I think Steve mentioned this upfront, like your diversified business with a diversified global footprint and you've got long-term algo by each segment, but there will be point in time where some are going to lag and some are going to do better. And it now feels like it's one of those points in time where the developed world, particularly North America, is lagging. I don't think it's structural, but at a moment in time, your emerging market businesses are doing quite well.

是的。聽起來還不錯。我認為這是透過我們的結果得出的，但也有很多噪音。堅持長期演算法，我認為史蒂夫預先提到了這一點，例如您的多元化業務具有多元化的全球足跡，並且每個細分市場都有長期演算法，但總會有一些時間點滯後，有些人會做得更好。現在感覺這是已開發國家（尤其是北美）落後的時間點之一。我不認為這是結構性的，但在某個時刻，你們的新興市場業務表現得相當不錯。

Investors are concerned that you're not going to able to hit LT algo across all segments next year. Is it reasonable to say that? That shouldn't be a concern. You don't need to LT algo across all segments next year. It could be looked very much like what we're seeing right now, where perhaps North America does lag, but the strength you have elsewhere could offset that. Or do you actually -- do you really expect and are you anchoring to a return to a long-term algo in North America?

投資者擔心明年將無法在所有領域實現 LT 演算法。這樣說有道理嗎？這不應該是一個問題。明年你不需要在所有細分市場上進行 LT 演算法。它可能看起來非常像我們現在所看到的情況，也許北美確實落後，但其他地方擁有的力量可以抵消這一點。或者你真的——你真的期望並錨定北美回歸長期演算法嗎？

I think a couple of things, Jason. You're exactly right. We don't need to be on long-term algo in all regions in order to make it corporately because of power of the portfolio. Having said that, I think what you're seeing in North America, just to put it in context, we did return to merchandising activity later than most. That was purposeful. In hindsight, perhaps we could have come sooner. But we're back now.

我想有幾件事，傑森。你說得完全正確。由於投資組合的力量，我們不需要在所有地區都採用長期演算法來實現公司化。話雖如此，我認為你在北美看到的情況，只是將其放在上下文中，我們確實比大多數人更晚恢復銷售活動。那是有目的的。事後看來，也許我們可以早點來。但我們現在回來了。

We were also going through obviously the spin, which was a massive amount of work. And so as we approach 2024, we look to North America with much more optimism in terms of turning back to quality merchandising activity. The strength of our brands, we know, is there, very, very strong. We were lagging in innovation for the same reasons, holding back to get our supply chain back to where we wanted it to be. So we've got a much more ambitious innovation plan in 2024.

顯然我們還經歷了旋轉，這是一項艱鉅的工作。因此，隨著 2024 年的臨近，我們對北美回歸優質行銷活動的態度更加樂觀。我們知道，我們品牌的實力非常非常強大。出於同樣的原因，我們在創新方面落後了，阻礙了我們的供應鏈回到我們想要的狀態。因此，我們在 2024 年制定了更雄心勃勃的創新計畫。

So as we look at North America in 2023, a series of events, obviously led by the spin, but also, again, measured return to innovation and merchandising activity, will all be very different in 2024. So we have more confidence in our long-term algo in North America, which bolsters our confidence in our long-term algo overall as a company.

因此，當我們展望2023 年的北美時，一系列事件，顯然是由旋轉主導的，而且，同樣，創新和營銷活動的可衡量回報，在2024 年都將非常不同。因此，我們對我們的長期發展更有信心。北美的長期演算法，這增強了我們對公司整體長期演算法的信心。

Our next question comes from Nik Modi from RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的尼克莫迪。

Steve, I was hoping you could comment on volume growth. Obviously, revenue has been very strong driven by pricing, but volumes continue to lag. Some of your global snacking peers have actually posted volume growth. So I just wanted to get some context from you on how you're thinking about that.

史蒂夫，我希望你能對銷量成長發表評論。顯然，在定價的推動下，收入非常強勁，但銷售仍然落後。一些全球零食同行實際上已經實現了銷售成長。所以我只是想從你那裡了解一些關於你是如何看待這個問題的背景資訊。

And then just a second question, and this is more of a kind of an abstract question that I was just thinking about. One of the big growth drivers in the future for Kellanova will be white space and global expansion with some of your existing brands. And I wondered if -- do you have global P&Ls for your key brands? Or is that something that still needs to be developed as you spin out the company?

然後是第二個問題，這更像是我剛剛想到的抽象問題。 Kellanova 未來的一大成長動力將是空白空間和一些現有品牌的全球擴張。我想知道你們的主要品牌是否有全球損益表？或者說，當你分拆公司時，這仍然需要開發嗎？

Yes, Nik. So I would say on the volume question, clearly, when you take the type of pricing that we've taken, mid-teens pricing on top of mid-teens pricing a year ago, you're going to have elasticities. The difference from -- for us relative to some competition, as I mentioned earlier, we did return to merchandising activity later than most. We did return -- we're returning to innovation activity later than most. That's a fact. And obviously, we had the spin as well as those other items, which leads us to be much more optimistic about 2024. There's nothing structural in our volumes or our performance or our brand health that points to anything other than optimism in 2024 and beyond.

是的，尼克。因此，我想說的是，關於數量問題，顯然，當你採用我們所採取的定價類型時，即一年前的中十幾歲定價之上的中十幾歲定價，你將具有彈性。正如我之前提到的，對於我們而言，相對於某些競爭而言，我們確實比大多數人更晚才恢復銷售活動。我們確實回來了——我們比大多數人都晚返回創新活動。這是事實。顯然，我們和其他項目一樣有旋轉，這讓我們對 2024 年更加樂觀。我們的銷量、我們的業績或我們的品牌健康狀況沒有任何結構性因素表明 2024 年及以後的樂觀情緒。

In terms of white space, the global P&L, yes, we track in detail the financial performance of all of our brands at a SKU level and at a geographic level. So a very good understanding of that.

就空白而言，全球損益表，是的，我們在 SKU 層級和地理層級詳細追蹤我們所有品牌的財務表現。所以對此有很好的理解。

Our next question comes from David Palmer of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

Question on the fourth quarter. You mentioned organic revenue growth would be within algo. I assume that'd be 2% to 4% up, including the Russia drag. And I'm also wondering how you're thinking about a 4Q sales breakdown between North America and other segments? And the reason I'm asking about that is really the scanner data quarter-to-date. It shows down roughly 4.5% in what we see in terms of U.S. measured channels. So it would look like you would have to be pretty heavy lifting for international -- for that to stay that way and for that to reflect what sort of organic revenue growth you'd have in North America in 4Q or put a lot of burden on international. So any thoughts about what we're seeing there or thoughts about improvement in North America, what we're seeing is not real or perhaps any particularly strong growth internationally would be helpful.

關於第四季的問題。您提到有機收入成長將在演算法之內。我認為這會上漲 2% 到 4%，其中包括俄羅斯的拖累。我還想知道您如何看待北美和其他細分市場第四季的銷售細分？我問這個問題的原因實際上是最新季度的掃描器數據。從我們所看到的美國測量頻道來看，下降了大約 4.5%。因此，看起來你必須為國際業務承擔相當大的負擔——為了保持這種狀態，並反映你在第四季度北美的有機收入增長，或者給公司帶來很大的負擔國際的。因此，任何關於我們在那裡看到的情況的想法或關於北美改善的想法，我們所看到的不是真實的，或者也許國際上任何特別強勁的增長都會有所幫助。

Yes. I think similar trends to what we are seeing right now from a quarter 4 standpoint, if you exclude W.K. KC from the base, the Russia divestiture would be about a 1% negative impact and then currency translation around 3%. So I think if you kind of exclude those 3, you get to the -- you get to our algo growth of somewhere between 3% to 5% for the overall business.

是的。如果排除 W.K.，我認為從第四季度的角度來看，我們現在看到的趨勢類似。從基數來看，俄羅斯資產剝離將產生約 1% 的負面影響，然後貨幣換算將產生約 3% 的負面影響。所以我認為，如果你排除這 3 個因素，你會發現我們的整體業務的演算法成長在 3% 到 5% 之間。

We would expect international to grow faster than the U.S. in the next quarter. We continue to expect price elasticities. That's always been in our guidance, so we expect that to continue. We'd expect volume to be down, (inaudible) for the decline to moderate in quarter 4 as we get back to full merchandising, particularly in the U.S. So that's kind of the shape of what we're expecting in quarter 4.

我們預計下一季國際市場的成長速度將超過美國市場。我們持續預期價格彈性。這一直是我們的指導方針，因此我們希望這種情況能夠繼續下去。我們預計，隨著我們恢復全面銷售，銷量將下降（聽不清楚），第四季度下降幅度將放緩，尤其是在美國。這就是我們對第四季的預期。

My follow-up to that is, if it's down -- if North America were down 4%, then the international would have to be something like up 10%. So that's why I'm asking. It just seems like you must be expecting North America to improve from now. I know back at the Analyst Day in August, you were talking about merchandising activity for Cheez-It and some marketing coming through. So I'm wondering, are you expecting a meaningful improvement? Or do you expect that sort of heavy lifting from international?

我的後續行動是，如果下跌——如果北美下跌 4%，那麼國際市場的漲幅可能會達到 10% 左右。所以這就是我問的原因。看來你一定期待北美從現在開始有所改善。我知道在 8 月的分析師日上，您談論了 Cheez-It 的銷售活動以及正在進行的一些行銷活動。所以我想知道，您是否期待有意義的改進？還是你期望來自國際的那種繁重的工作？

Yes. I was going to say it's a lot like quarter 3. And you can see in the scanner data that we did return to merchandising activity. We haven't yet gotten the quality display activity that we're now seeing. So you're going to see a gradual improvement going into Q1 of 2024 as well.

是的。我想說這很像第三季。你可以在掃描器資料中看到我們確實恢復了銷售活動。我們尚未獲得現在所看到的高品質顯示活動。因此，到 2024 年第一季度，您也會看到逐步改善。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

With the caveat that you're not quite ready to talk about certain details in 2024 yet, The Street is -- and it's great to hear that you're expecting an on-algo year. But The Street is looking for volume growth as soon as the second quarter of next year, and I wasn't quite sure if that was reasonable. And I don't know if I'm asking a question that you can even answer at this point in time. But I'm -- my hope is that Street numbers can maybe be a little more reasonable at some point. If that's the case, just given some of that -- you'll still have some pricing flowing through and there's still certain challenges around the world. I just wouldn't want people to come out and have numbers that are too high and disappointed. So I didn't know if you could talk about that at this point, if there's any kind of commentary you could provide on volume growth into next year at this time, given the lack of visibility, I understand?

需要注意的是，您還沒有準備好談論 2024 年的某些細節，《華爾街日報》已經準備好——而且很高興聽到您期待 2024 年的到來。但華爾街預計最快明年第二季銷售就會成長，我不太確定這是否合理。我不知道我問的問題你現在是否可以回答。但我希望街道號碼在某些時候可能會更合理一些。如果是這樣的話，只要考慮到其中的一些因素，您仍然會有一些定價流動，而且世界各地仍然存在某些挑戰。我只是不希望人們出來時得到的數字太高而感到失望。所以我不知道你現在是否可以談論這個問題，考慮到缺乏可見性，你是否可以對明年的銷售成長提供任何評論，我明白？

Yes. Like I said, we're working through our budgeting process right now. I think we'd expect a gradual return to volume growth in '24. Obviously, as you start lapping some of the price increases and some of the volume in quarter 3, the laps get easier. But that's probably the shape of how we're looking at '24 right now.

是的。正如我所說，我們現在正在製定預算流程。我認為我們預計 24 年銷量將逐漸恢復成長。顯然，當你在第三季開始記錄一些價格上漲和一些銷售量時，記錄會變得更容易。但這也許就是我們現在對 24 世紀的看法。

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

You touched on some of the margin drivers, the pricing now offsetting inflation better, the productivity, the normalization of where the supply chain disruptions had been. Can you maybe give a sense of order of magnitude? Or -- really trying to understand what are the most sustainable and how to think about looking ahead?

您談到了一些利潤驅動因素、現在的定價更好地抵消了通貨膨脹、生產力以及供應鏈中斷的正常化。您能否給出一個數量級的感覺？或者——真正嘗試了解什麼是最永續的以及如何展望未來？

And then part of that, is there any way to quantify -- you mentioned some of the additional costs from the parallel operations, but still had -- against our expectations, still a nice margin performance. Can you quantify some of that? Was that significant and obviously lapping that? Or are you putting that in the rearview? How much of a lift should that be looking ahead as well?

然後，有沒有什麼方法可以量化——您提到了並行操作帶來的一些額外成本，但與我們的預期相反，仍然有不錯的利潤率表現。你能量化其中的某些嗎？這是否很重要且明顯是重疊的？還是你把它放在後視鏡中？展望未來，這應該會有多大的提升？

Yes. So I think in terms of gross margin, I think you hit on the 2 biggest items, right? So it is pricing, catching our presentation, and it is a much better performing supply chain. So those 2 are the biggest drivers of the gross margin improvement. And it's been coming in better than what we had expected and faster than what we had expected. So more of a timing in terms of the catch-up happening faster than what we have planned for.

是的。所以我認為就毛利率而言，我認為你找到了兩個最大的項目，對吧？所以它是定價，吸引我們的演示，它是一個表現更好的供應鏈。因此，這兩個是毛利率改善的最大動力。而且它的進展比我們預期的還要快，而且比我們預期的還要快。因此，追趕的時機比我們計畫的還要快。

So -- and I think in terms of the parallel costs, we did incur some parallel costs in quarter 3 for -- as we kind of ran value operations. I think that's now behind us post-spin. I wouldn't say it's a significant lap item for next year. So we did incur costs, but they weren't really significant from a lap standpoint.

因此，我認為就並行成本而言，我們在第三季度確實產生了一些並行成本，因為我們進行了價值運作。我認為現在我們已經擺脫了旋轉後的困境。我不會說這對明年來說是一個重要的單圈項目。所以我們確實產生了成本，但從單圈的角度來看，這些成本並不重要。

Okay. That's helpful. And just a follow-up on your color on the consumer, just in the release and prepared remarks talking about how they're stretched or elasticities are getting sharper. Can you just maybe give us a sense of how much visibility you have on the broader dynamic in terms of trading down from food away from home? That would, in theory, give a lift to packaged food, but then obviously, the pressure you are seeing with either trade-down, just some of the consumer dynamics and where that all nets out for you?

好的。這很有幫助。只是對消費者的顏色進行跟進，只是在發布和準備好的評論中談論它們如何拉伸或彈性變得更強。您能否讓我們了解一下您對減少外出食品的更廣泛動態的了解程度？從理論上講，這將提振包裝食品，但顯然，你在降價交易中看到的壓力，只是一些消費者動態，這一切對你來說意味著什麼？

And we've seen in this quarter, obviously, what that looked like, but maybe some of what you expect in the fourth quarter or looking ahead. Is it better? Is it worse? Is it more of the same? You touched a little bit on the volume thoughts for 2024. But just curious for the consumer perspective behind that, that you see as the real driver.

顯然，我們在本季度已經看到了情況，但也許是您在第四季度或展望未來所期望的一些情況。好點嗎？是不是更糟了？是不是更相似呢？您對 2024 年的銷售想法進行了一些討論。但只是對這背後的消費者觀點感到好奇，您認為這是真正的驅動力。

Michael, I'd say the consumer is clearly strained. There's evidence of that. There's some degree of channel shifting. There's some degree of trading down to smaller sizes. There is definitely traffic patterns of when they're shopping, more trips, all those types of things. Having said all that, though, I think the overarching line is still the resilience of the consumer. And particularly for our categories, we're talking about affordable luxuries, we've talked about that in the past. And we're not really seeing any meaningful shift to private label or anything that points to a structural change in consumer dynamics.

邁克爾，我想說消費者顯然很緊張。有證據表明這一點。存在一定程度的通路轉移。有一定程度的縮小尺寸的交易。當他們購物、更多旅行等所有這些類型的事情時，肯定存在流量模式。儘管如此，我認為最重要的仍然是消費者的韌性。特別是對於我們的類別，我們談論的是負擔得起的奢侈品，我們過去已經討論過這一點。我們並沒有真正看到任何有意義的向自有品牌的轉變，也沒有看到任何顯示消費者動態發生結構性變化的事情。

And we've said this in the past, when you take the type of pricing, you're talking about 30-plus percent pricing over the last 18 months, the type of volume decline that we've seen in aggregate is still much smaller than you would otherwise expect. We've seen it more recently, obviously, in a real catch-up. But I think we're probably at the high watermark in terms of elasticities. As we go into next year, we're lapping a lot of this pricing. Consumers are becoming much more used to different price points. We talked about our return to quality merchandising, a lot of things to believe are going to point to a good industry environment despite all the macro pressures that are well understood and that are putting pressure on the consumer.

我們過去已經說過，當你採用定價類型時，你談論的是過去 18 個月內 30% 以上的定價，我們總體上看到的銷量下降類型仍然要小得多超出您的預期。顯然，我們最近在真正的追趕中看到了這一點。但我認為我們的彈性可能已經達到最高水準了。當我們進入明年時，我們會採用許多這樣的定價。消費者越來越習慣不同的價格點。我們談到了我們對優質商品的回歸，儘管所有宏觀壓力都很好理解並且給消費者帶來了壓力，但許多值得相信的事情都將指向良好的行業環境。

Our next question comes from Max Gumport of BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Max Gumport。

Just on the volume in North America. You've given some color already. I know you've touched on the slower return to merchandising and innovation and also the lapping of trade inventory build last year. So I was just hoping you could maybe quantify some of those buckets in terms of just order of magnitude. How much of the decline was due to the lap? How much was due to the lower return? And then maybe how much is due to just slower category growth or share performance? I realize this is all very tough to do. Just hoping for a bit more color there.

就北美的銷量而言。你已經給了一些顏色。我知道您已經談到了商品銷售和創新恢復緩慢以及去年貿易庫存增加的問題。所以我只是希望你能用數量級來量化其中一些桶子。有多少下降是因為單圈造成的？由於回報率較低而導致的費用是多少？那麼，有多少可能是因為類別成長放緩或股票表現？我意識到這一切都很難做到。只是希望那裡有更多的顏色。

Yes. Max, I think just directionally, the big buckets are the merchandising activity and the pricing and the innovation. Those are really the 3 big buckets, all entirely controllable as we look to the future. The pricing, we're lapping; the innovation, we've got a better plan; the merchandising activity, we're returning. So that's why I say when we look at the health of our brands, we're very encouraged. Because when you're talking about Pringles, Rice Krispies Treats, Cheez-It, these are big power brands that are loved by the consumer, showing no signs of diminution with consumer loyalty. And so those are the 3 items that really make up the biggest buckets that's pressured volume up to this point.

是的。麥克斯，我認為從方向上來說，最大的部分是銷售活動、定價和創新。這些其實是三大桶，當我們展望未來時，它們都是完全可控的。定價，我們正在研磨；創新，我們有更好的方案；推銷活動，我們回來了。這就是為什麼我說，當我們看到我們品牌的健康狀況時，我們感到非常鼓舞。因為當你談到品客洋芋片、脆米花、Cheez-It 時，這些都是深受消費者喜愛的實力品牌，消費者忠誠度絲毫沒有減弱的跡象。因此，這 3 項真正構成了迄今為止壓力最大的部分。

Got it. And then one more on the U.S. There was a large grocery retailer this morning that reported results, and they called out that they now have evidence that the emergency allotments of SNAP rolling off maybe have been a bigger impact than expected. I think their numbers were -- initially would have expected a minus 200 basis point impact on sales, and now it's looking more like a minus 400 basis point impact on sales growth. Just curious if you're seeing a similar type of impact among your lower-income consumers?

知道了。還有一個關於美國的消息，今天早上一家大型雜貨零售商報告了結果，他們聲稱現在有證據表明 SNAP 緊急撥款的取消可能產生了比預期更大的影響。我認為他們的數字最初預計會對銷售產生負 200 個基點的影響，現在看起來更像是對銷售成長產生負 400 個基點的影響。只是好奇您是否在低收入消費者中看到了類似的影響？

Yes. I haven't seen those results yet. But SNAP is obviously one part of the elasticity story. We've taken, as an industry, significant pricing while the consumer has been under pressure. And so I think it's probably -- you're seeing that in the overall elasticities. What SNAP is, it's hard to quantify for us, but we'll certainly study what you've just mentioned.

是的。我還沒有看到這些結果。但 SNAP 顯然是彈性故事的一部分。作為一個產業，我們在消費者承受壓力的同時採取了重大定價。所以我認為這可能是——你在整體彈性中看到了這一點。 SNAP 是什麼，我們很難量化，但我們一定會研究你剛才提到的內容。

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I just had one -- just wanted to ask one clarification, then I have a question. In the appendix of the Day at K presentation, there are hard currency-neutral dollar targets for sales and EBIT by segment. So just the -- I'm just trying to understand, is -- are those not valid anymore? Just because you reiterated kind of being on algorithm for '24, but didn't really address the hard targets. So I just want to make sure we should be still -- should we still be using those as a guide as we're modeling for '24?

我只是想問一個問題，然後我有一個問題。在 Day at K 簡報的附錄中，列出了按部門劃分的銷售額和息稅前利潤的硬通貨美元目標。所以，我只是想了解，那些不再有效了嗎？只是因為你重申了 24 年的演算法，但並沒有真正解決硬目標。所以我只是想確保我們應該保持靜止——當我們為 24 小時建模時，我們是否仍然應該使用這些作為指導？

Yes. So I think, Bryan, we'll give you the details when we close out '23, right? I think from a growth rate standpoint, like I said, we fully expect to be on long-term growth algorithm for 2024. I think as you'd appreciate, right, currencies will be different when we close out '23 versus the assumptions that we had made in August. Like I had mentioned on '23, we are -- at the end of 9 months, we are ahead of pace versus the guidance that we had given and so where we close out from a '23 standpoint. So I think those kind of pace and currency adjustments would cause the absolute to differ, but we were right in the middle of that work as part of our budget. And I fully expect our long-term growth rates to be on algorithm.

是的。所以我想，布萊恩，我們會在 23 年結束時向您提供詳細信息，對嗎？我認為，從成長率的角度來看，就像我說的那樣，我們完全期望在2024 年採用長期成長演算法。我認為，正如您所理解的那樣，當我們結束23 年時，貨幣將會有所不同，而不是假設我們是八月做的。就像我在 23 年提到的那樣，在 9 個月結束時，我們領先於我們給予的指導，因此從 23 年的角度來看，我們已經結束了。因此，我認為這種節奏和貨幣調整會導致絕對值有所不同，但作為預算的一部分，我們正處於這項工作的中間。我完全預期我們的長期成長率將取決於演算法。

I guess -- but those ranges are currency-neutral that you provided. So I don't know maybe the accounting is changing. It's just -- so I guess we'll wait till February to get it but...

我猜 - 但您提供的這些範圍是貨幣中性的。所以我不知道會計核算是否正在改變。只是 - 所以我想我們會等到二月才能得到它，但是......

Yes. So it's currency-neutral, right? The overall rates that we had given for the company included a view of currency, right? So that's for the total Kellogg Company, the ones that we had given in our preliminary '24 guidance. Where there are currency-neutral numbers, those won't be impacted by those view of the long-term rates. But the base numbers should change, right, depending on where we end up on '23.

是的。所以它是貨幣中立的，對嗎？我們為公司給出的總體費率包括貨幣觀點，對吧？這就是整個家樂氏公司的情況，我們在 24 年初步指南中給出了這些資訊。如果有貨幣中性數據，這些數據就不會受到長期利率觀點的影響。但基數應該會改變，對吧，這取決於我們在 23 年的最終結果。

Okay. And then just -- you talked about margins kind of recovery happening a little bit faster than normal. So again, there was an implied margin that is just under 14%, I guess, the middle of that range, currency-neutral next year. So should we -- is it possible that since you're running ahead, we could even be a little bit further ahead in terms of margin recovery for next year?

好的。然後，您談到利潤率的恢復速度比正常情況要快一些。因此，我猜明年的隱含利潤率略低於 14%，處於該範圍的中間，貨幣中立。那麼我們是否應該——既然你們領先了，我們在明年的利潤率恢復方面甚至可能會進一步領先一點嗎？

Yes. We talked that as we kind of complete the budgeting process, Bryan. I think it's a bit premature for me to comment on that. But yes, margin recovery is recovering faster. You'll see that in our results. And we'll give you the specifics on '24 when we get to it.

是的。布萊恩，我們在完成預算流程時談到了這一點。我認為我對此發表評論還為時過早。但是，是的，利潤率恢復得更快。您會在我們的結果中看到這一點。當我們到達時，我們會向您提供 '24 的具體細節。

Our next question comes from Alexia Howard of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的亞歷克西婭·霍華德。

So a couple of questions here. You mentioned a couple of times that you were late coming back with merchandising and promotional activity and that, therefore, it was quite a bit lower in the first half of 2023 than your normal run rate would be. Does that mean that as we lap that lower promotional period in 2024 that in the developed markets, we could actually see pricing modestly down? I don't know about the timing of the price increases, but I'm just wondering how we should think about that cadence?

這裡有幾個問題。您多次提到，您的銷售和促銷活動回來晚了，因此 2023 年上半年的運行率比正常運行率要低很多。這是否意味著，當我們在 2024 年度過發達市場較低的促銷期時，我們實際上可能會看到價格適度下降？我不知道漲價的時間，但我只是想知道我們應該如何考慮這個節奏？

No, I wouldn't say you'd see pricing down. I think you just see a return to quality merchandising off of what are inescapably higher list prices. And so that's really the dynamic that you'll see.

不，我不會說你會看到價格下降。我認為你只是看到了高品質商品的回歸，而價格不可避免地更高。這就是您將看到的真正的動態。

Great. That's clear. And then on the leverage, it looks as though your leverage is fairly comfortable at the moment, probably around 2.4, 2.5x if that is $500 million, $600 million has gone with W.K. Kellogg. How does that mean you make -- or where does that put you in terms of M&A aspirations, particularly on the acquisition side? And if you were thinking about further deals, which geographies and what type of criteria would you be thinking about on that front?

偉大的。很清楚。然後在槓桿方面，看起來你的槓桿目前相當舒適，可能是 2.4 倍、2.5 倍左右，如果是 5 億美元，W.K. 已經花掉了 6 億美元。凱洛格。這對您意味著什麼？或者這對您的併購願望有何影響，特別是在收購方面？如果您正在考慮進一步的交易，您會在這方面考慮哪些地區和哪種類型的標準？

Yes. So firstly, I think we like the organic opportunity that's in front of us. And I think despite the short-term volume discussion, right, I think the growth potential of our portfolio is strong. We've got plenty of organic growth opportunities. I think from a capital allocation standpoint, prioritizing investments into the organic opportunity, particularly in capacity expansion in Pringles in emerging markets, is kind of the immediate priority. We'd always evaluate M&A opportunities, I think largely in the areas of snacking and emerging markets. So if something -- we run a very disciplined process, and so we continue to evaluate opportunities going forward.

是的。首先，我認為我們喜歡擺在我們面前的有機機會。我認為，儘管存在短期成交量討論，對吧，我認為我們投資組合的成長潛力很強。我們有大量的有機成長機會。我認為從資本配置的角度來看，優先投資有機機會，特別是新興市場品客洋芋片的產能擴張，是當務之急。我們總是評估併購機會，我認為主要是在零食和新興市場領域。因此，如果有的話——我們運行一個非常嚴格的流程，因此我們會繼續評估未來的機會。

Our next question comes from Robert Dickerson of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的羅伯特·迪克森 (Robert Dickerson)。

Steve, I just wanted to ask about the -- some of the volume impacts around -- I think you said some changes to price pack architecture and also SKU rationalization. So maybe if you could just kind of dive into that just a little bit more in detail? I'm not sure if that's kind of across the overall global portfolio or if it's more North America-based and kind of what's driving that rationalization in the near term? And then, I guess, as we think about next year, is it -- yes, we have this better base with rationalization fully coming through in '23, and we should be able to end that by the end of this year, which, therefore, allows us some higher probability volume growth next year.

史蒂夫，我只是想問一下——一些銷售影響——我想你提到了價格包架構和 SKU 合理化的一些變化。那麼，也許您可以更詳細地研究一下這個問題嗎？我不確定這是否是整個全球投資組合的一部分，還是更多以北美為基礎，以及是什麼推動了近期的合理化？然後，我想，正如我們對明年的考慮，是的，我們有更好的基礎，在 23 年完全實現合理化，我們應該能夠在今年年底之前結束這一過程，因此，明年銷量增長的可能性更大。

Yes. So a couple of things, Rob. First, the biggest impact was in Latin America, where we made very purposeful SKU reductions, price package architecture to improve profitability. And we're very pleased with the program and how that worked out.

是的。有幾件事，羅布。首先，影響最大的是拉丁美洲，我們有針對性地減少了 SKU、價格套餐架構，以提高獲利能力。我們對該計劃及其實施感到非常滿意。

In North America, there's also elements. We've gotten out of some lower-margin cracker business, for example. We did rationalize SKUs when we had severe shortages and bottlenecks and -- last year to get better performance in the plants. And so we'll be lapping that. But biggest headline is definitely Latin America followed by North America.

在北美，也有元素。例如，我們已經退出了一些利潤較低的餅乾業務。去年，當我們遇到嚴重的短缺和瓶頸時，我們確實對 SKU 進行了合理化，以提高工廠的績效。所以我們會對此進行研磨。但最大的頭條新聞肯定是拉丁美洲，其次是北美。

Okay. All right. Fair enough. And then just secondly, kind of quickly, on the pricing side. Pricing clearly is still part of the top line. I think as Alexia said, I'm not sure exactly how many rounds have gone in and kind of what time on a per segment basis. But as we think through into '24, and maybe this pertains a little bit more to some of the emerging markets, like do you foresee kind of incremental pricing needs? Doesn't sound like that's something many of us are discussing at this point. But like when I look at AMEA kind of pricing relative to currency, maybe there are some opportunities. Maybe there can be some incremental pricing potential in certain geographies.

好的。好的。很公平。其次，在定價方面，速度很快。定價顯然仍然是營收的一部分。我認為正如 Alexia 所說，我不確定具體進行了多少輪以及每個分段的時間。但當我們思考進入 24 世紀時，也許這與一些新興市場有關，例如您是否預見到某種增量定價需求？聽起來這並不是我們許多人目前正在討論的事情。但就像當我觀察 AMEA 相對於貨幣的定價時，也許存在一些機會。也許在某些地區可能存在一些增量定價潛力。

Yes. I'd say a couple of things. First, in the developed markets, we're looking at a more benign inflationary environment going forward. And we certainly feel like the consumer has taken enough pricing and are working hard to mitigate any potential needs to take more pricing going forward. And again, returning to quality merchandising means promotional activity and benefits to the consumer.

是的。我想說幾件事。首先，在已開發市場，我們預期未來通膨環境將更加良性。我們當然認為消費者已經採取了足夠的定價，並且正在努力減輕未來採取更多定價的任何潛在需求。再次強調，回歸優質行銷意味著促銷活動和對消費者的好處。

In the emerging markets, generally, every year, we're going to be taking pricing. Whether that be currency, whether that be inflation, just cost of doing business, that's fairly routine. And we see the same thing happening in our emerging markets for next year, although not to the same levels that we've seen over the course of the last 2 years. And we'll exercise all the RGM levers that we have in those emerging markets to maintain affordability, to maintain -- in the shopping baskets of our consumers in the emerging markets. But it's more of a, I would say, a more normalized environment in emerging markets relative to the past 2 years. But that doesn't mean deflationary and it doesn't mean flat. It means just more measured price increases going forward.

在新興市場，一般來說，我們每年都會進行定價。無論是貨幣、通貨膨脹或做生意的成本，這都是相當平常的事。我們預計明年新興市場也會發生同樣的情況，儘管程度不會達到過去兩年的水平。我們將運用我們在這些新興市場中擁有的所有 RGM 槓桿來維持新興市場消費者的負擔能力，並維持他們的購物籃。但我想說的是，與過去兩年相比，新興市場的環境更正常化。但這並不代表通貨緊縮，也不代表持平。這意味著未來的價格上漲將會更加謹慎。

We might have time for one last question, if it's quick.

如果時間夠快的話，我們可能還有時間回答最後一個問題。

Our next question comes from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

Maybe just pick up on that last question from Rob, specific to AMEA. For a while, pricing was running well above the currency headwinds. So you were seeing double-digit U.S. dollar growth. Now pricing is running below. So you're seeing the double-digit organic growth, but you're seeing kind of double-digit declines in U.S. dollars. So could you frame for us what's going on there? Maybe give us a little bit more of a tutorial around sort of timing of when pricing has been or can be taken in that market relative to currency fluctuations? And then just how you -- net of all that, how you're thinking about kind of real growth in that market in dollar terms over time?

也許只是接聽 Rob 提出的最後一個問題，具體到 AMEA。有一段時間，定價遠高於貨幣逆風。所以你看到了美元的兩位數成長。現在定價如下。因此，您會看到兩位數的有機增長，但您會看到美元出現兩位數的下跌。那麼你能為我們描述一下那裡發生了什麼事嗎？也許給我們更多一些關於相對於貨幣波動在該市場中已經或可以採取定價的時間安排的教程？然後，除去所有這些因素，您如何考慮隨著時間的推移該市場以美元計算的實際增長？

Yes. So I think the easiest way to think about it is there's a lag between the devaluation that happens on an operating transaction basis and when the official rate moved. But we've been seeing the devaluation of the naira on the ground from an operating basis all the way through 2022, first half of '23 and have been taking pricing to cover that. And I think the business has done a remarkable job taking multiple rounds of price. And the great news, and it's a testament just to the strength of our brand and our route to market, that despite the pricing that we've taken, volumes have held up and our shares have held up. So that's been happening. And like you said, we've been seeing that come through with elevated growth rates through '22 into the first half of '23.

是的。因此，我認為最簡單的思考方法是，在經營交易基礎上發生的貶值與官方利率變動之間存在著滯後。但我們一直看到奈拉從營運基礎上貶值到 2022 年、23 年上半年，並且一直在透過定價來彌補這一點。我認為該公司在多輪定價方面做得非常出色。好消息是，儘管我們採取了定價，但銷售和股價都保持不變，這證明了我們品牌的實力和我們的市場路線。所以這種事一直在發生。正如您所說，我們已經看到從 22 年到 23 年上半年成長率不斷提高。

Then you have the devaluation that happened in the last quarter. And so the transaction and the translation have gotten more in sync as a result of that. And so that's why now you're seeing a bit of a lag. I mean the business continues to be growing at double-digit rates and we continue to take pricing, but there is a lag that's kind of flowing in, in the way it's go through in the P&L.

然後就是上個季度發生的貶值。因此，交易和翻譯變得更加同步。這就是為什麼現在你會看到一些滯後。我的意思是，業務繼續以兩位數的速度成長，我們繼續定價，但在損益表中的體現方式存在一定的滯後性。

But I think from an overall standpoint, a strong route to market, taking the pricing to cover our margins through this whole cycle, we protected our margins. And that's been the focus of the team, and we've done that volumes to hedge.

但我認為，從整體角度來看，透過強大的市場途徑，在整個週期中透過定價來覆蓋我們的利潤，我們保護了我們的利潤。這一直是團隊的焦點，我們已經完成了這麼多的對沖工作。

Okay, okay. That's great. And just real quick, you talked about similar currency headwinds in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter. So we take that to mean around about like a $0.04 drag on EPS from FX?

好吧好吧。那太棒了。很快，您談到了第四季相對於第三季的類似貨幣逆風。那麼我們是否認為這意味著外匯對 EPS 造成約 0.04 美元的拖累？

Well, EPS has been -- it's been a help to EPS. That's the reference there was from a top line standpoint, about a 3% drag the top line growth. EPS was actually positive in the -- in quarter 3, right? And so -- yes. But I think from a top line standpoint, about a 3% hit to the top line. And from an EPS, I'd say, using the exchange that we have, probably flattish. So much more impact on the top line than the EPS.

嗯，每股收益一直——這對每股收益有幫助。這是從收入角度來看的參考，大約 3% 拖累收入成長。每股收益實際上在第三季是正值，對嗎？所以——是的。但我認為從營收的角度來看，營收大約會受到 3% 的影響。我想說，使用我們現有的交易所，每股盈餘可能持平。對營收的影響比每股盈餘大得多。

Okay. Operator, we are at time. So thank you, everyone, for your interest. And please do not hesitate to call if you do have follow-up questions.

好的。接線員，我們準時了。謝謝大家的關注。如果您確實有後續問題，請隨時致電。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。