家樂氏 (K) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Kellanova's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.歡迎參加 Kellanova 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I will turn the call over to John Renwick, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning for Kellanova. Mr. Renwick, you may begin your conference call.

此時，我會將電話轉給 Kellanova 投資人關係和企業規劃副總裁 John Renwick。 Renwick 先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for a review of our fourth quarter results and a discussion of our outlook for 2024. I'm joined this morning by Steve Cahillane, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Amit Banati, our Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線生。早安，感謝您今天加入我們回顧我們第四季度的業績並討論我們對 2024 年的展望。今天早上我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Steve Cahillane 也加入了我們的行列。以及我們的副主席兼財務長阿米特·巴納蒂 (Amit Banati)。

Slide #3 shows our forward-looking statements disclaimer. As you are aware, certain statements made today, such as projections for Kellanova's future performance, are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the third slide of this presentation as well as to our public SEC filings.

投影片 #3 顯示了我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。如您所知，今天所做的某些陳述（例如對 Kellanova 未來業績的預測）屬於前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預測有重大差異。有關可能導致這些結果不同的因素的更多信息，請參閱本簡報的第三張幻燈片以及我們向 SEC 公開的文件。

A recording of today's webcast and supporting documents will be archived for at least 90 days on the Investor page of www.kellanova.com. As always, when referring to our results and outlook, unless otherwise noted, we will be referring to them on an organic basis for net sales and on a currency-neutral adjusted basis for operating profit and earnings per share.

今天網路廣播的錄音和支援文件將在 www.kellanova.com 的投資者頁面上存檔至少 90 天。像往常一樣，在提及我們的業績和前景時，除非另有說明，否則我們將在淨銷售額的有機基礎上以及在貨幣中性調整後的營業利潤和每股收益的基礎上提及它們。

Included in our press release, our financial results for the fourth quarter 2023 as well as the first 3 quarters and full years of 2023 and 2022 recasting WK Kellogg Co in those periods as discontinued operations in accordance with applicable accounting guidelines. These recast financials will be the basis of comparison used in the year-on-year growth rates we provide today for all items except free cash flow, which was not recast.

我們的新聞稿中包含了 2023 年第四季以及 2023 年和 2022 年前三個季度和全年的財務業績，根據適用的會計準則，將這些期間的 WK Kellogg Co 重新調整為已終止經營業務。這些重新調整的財務數據將成為我們今天提供的所有項目同比增長率的比較基礎，自由現金流除外，自由現金流沒有重新調整。

Keep in mind that the accounting guidelines for discontinued operations are such that the recast financials for the periods prior to the spinoff include expenses related to providing transition services to WKKC such as warehousing and IT-related expenses, but they do not include the reimbursement for those expenses, which Kellanova is receiving from WKKC under a transition services agreement.

請記住，針對已終止經營業務的會計準則規定，分拆前期間的重訂財務資料包括與向 WKKC 提供過渡服務相關的費用，例如倉儲和 IT 相關費用，但不包括這些費用的報銷凱拉諾瓦(Kellanova) 根據過渡服務協議從WKKC 收到這些費用。

For periods after the spin-off, that is from Q4 2023 on, both the expenses and the reimbursements will be included, which will impact year-on-year comparisons. This also creates a difference from the carve-out financials that you would have seen from WKKC as different accounting guidelines apply to carve-out financials.

對於分拆後的期間，從 2023 年第四季開始，費用和報銷都將包括在內，這將影響同比比較。這也與您從 WKKC 看到的剝離財務數據產生了差異，因為不同的會計準則適用於剝離財務數據。

And now I'll turn it over to Steve.

現在我將把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. It's a real pleasure to be able to present to you results for Kellanova for the first time. Allow me first to point to you to Slide #5 and remind everyone of Kellanova's more focused, more growth-oriented portfolio. And let me also remind you of our updated and sharpened strategy. This strategy appropriately called differentiate, drive and deliver, as shown on Slide #6. This strengthened portfolio and sharpened strategy were in full force during our initial quarter as Kellanova.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。很高興能夠首次向您展示 Kellanova 的結果。首先請容許我向大家指出第 5 張投影片，並提醒大家 Kellanova 更專注、更以成長為導向的產品組合。我還要提醒您我們更新和改進的策略。這種策略被恰當地稱為差異化、推動和交付，如幻燈片 #6 所示。這種強化的產品組合和銳化的策略在我們成立 Kellanova 的第一個季度中得到了充分發揮。

We delivered another quarter of solid results as summarized on Slide #7. We began the quarter with our transformational spin-off, which we executed successfully from a transactional, financial and operational perspective. We did not let this transformational transaction distract us from the task at hand, delivering results. In the quarter, we delivered results for net sales, operating profit and EPS that all were better than the guidance ranges we provided back in November.

正如投影片 #7 所總結的那樣，我們又交付了一個季度的穩健成果。本季伊始，我們就進行了轉型性分拆，從交易、財務和營運的角度來看，我們成功地執行了分拆。我們沒有讓這項變革性交易分散我們對手頭任務的注意力，從而交付成果。本季度，我們公佈的淨銷售額、營業利潤和每股收益均優於我們 11 月份提供的指導範圍。

Our organic net sales growth remained at a rate that is above our long-term algorithm, even in spite of challenging industry conditions marked by rising elasticities in our categories around the world. Importantly, the strength of our diverse emerging markets was again evident. We continue to restore profit margins that had been pressured by last year's soaring input costs and rampant supply impediments. And this led to operating profit growing at a rate that exceeded our long-term algorithm as well. Meantime, we delivered more free cash flow than we had anticipated further strengthening our balance sheet and financial flexibility, which was used to opportunistically accelerate share repurchases.

儘管產業條件充滿挑戰，我們在全球範圍內的品類彈性不斷上升，但我們的有機淨銷售額成長速度仍高於我們的長期演算法。重要的是，我們多元化的新興市場的實力再次顯現出來。我們繼續恢復因去年投入成本飆升和嚴重供應障礙而受到壓力的利潤率。這導致營業利潤的成長速度也超過了我們的長期演算法。同時，我們提供了比預期更多的自由現金流，進一步加強了我們的資產負債表和財務靈活性，這被用來伺機加速股票回購。

Importantly, we have shifted our focus back towards demand generation after a few years of having to focus more on supply. And we solidified our plans and assumptions for 2024 accordingly as outlined on Slide #8. We are affirming the 2024 guidance we gave back in August at our Day@K investor event, underscoring the dependability we intend to continue to exhibit as Kellanova.

重要的是，經過幾年不得不更多地關注供應之後，我們已將重點重新轉向需求創造。我們相應地鞏固了 2024 年的計劃和假設，如幻燈片 #8 所示。我們確認了 8 月在 Day@K 投資者活動中給予的 2024 年指引，強調了我們打算繼續展現 Kellanova 的可靠性。

While it could take a couple of quarters before these negative industry trends abate, we are confident that our return to a full commercial plan will gradually stabilize and improve our volume as the year progresses. Our innovation is bigger and better than last year's supply-related pullback. Our highly differentiated brands are fully supported with A&P investment, and we are back to normal levels of merchandising. We are also confident in our sustained momentum in emerging markets, another point of differentiation for Kellanova. Meantime, we also expect margin expansion in all 4 regions in 2024.

雖然這些負面的行業趨勢可能需要幾個季度才能消退，但我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們恢復全面商業計劃將逐漸穩定並提高我們的銷售量。我們的創新比去年與供應相關的回檔更大、更好。我們高度差異化的品牌得到了 A&P 投資的全力支持，我們的銷售也回到了正常水平。我們對新興市場的持續成長動能也充滿信心，這是 Kellanova 的另一個差異化優勢。同時，我們也預期 2024 年所有 4 個地區的利潤率都會擴大。

The result is an outlook for an on-algorithm net sales and operating profit growth and free cash flow generation that is strong enough to incrementally invest in future growth and future margin expansion. This investment in future growth includes incremental capital expenditures for adding much needed capacity for Pringles in emerging markets, as we've discussed previously.

其結果是對演算法淨銷售額和營業利潤成長以及自由現金流產生的展望，這些成長足以增量投資於未來的成長和未來的利潤率擴張。正如我們先前所討論的，對未來成長的投資包括增量資本支出，用於增加品客洋芋片在新興市場急需的產能。

But we're also investing in margin expansion, as shown on Slide #9. Consistent with our long-term plans to optimize our global supply chain network, we have commenced 2 optimizations of production facilities, one in our North America frozen foods business and one in our European cereal business. These are high-return projects that require very little cash upfront and will start delivering savings by late this year.

但我們也在投資利潤擴張，如幻燈片 #9 所示。根據我們優化全球供應鏈網路的長期計劃，我們已開始對生產設施進行兩項優化，一項在北美冷凍食品業務，一項在歐洲穀物業務。這些都是高回報項目，前期只需要很少的現金，並將在今年年底開始節省資金。

All of this is contemplated in our guidance. And even after deploying some of the savings into growth-oriented investments, particularly behind snacks and emerging markets, these actions enabled us to get to our medium-term operating profit margin of 15% by 2026, a little earlier than we had previously indicated, while also progressing on our strategy and ambition to deliver best-in-class service through agile, flexible supply chain.

所有這些都在我們的指導中被考慮。即使將部分節省的資金用於成長型投資，特別是零食和新興市場投資，這些行動也使我們能夠在 2026 年之前實現 15% 的中期營業利潤率，比我們之前表示的要早一些，同時，我們也不斷推進我們的策略和雄心，即透過敏捷、靈活的供應鏈提供一流的服務。

Our focus is also on growing the right way, and Slide #10 shows some of the ways our Better Days Promise program manifested itself during the fourth quarter. We unveiled new more ambitious targets for Kellanova, sustained our legacy of helping our communities and link these activities to our commercial endeavors, and we continue to be recognized for our efforts.

我們的重點還在於以正確的方式成長，幻燈片 #10 顯示了我們的「更好的日子承諾」計劃在第四季度表現出來的一些方式。我們為 Kellanova 制定了更雄心勃勃的新目標，延續了我們幫助社區的傳統，並將這些活動與我們的商業活動聯繫起來，我們的努力將繼續獲得認可。

So now let me turn it over to Amit, who will walk you through our financials before I come back and discuss each of our businesses in more detail.

現在讓我把它交給阿米特，他將帶您了解我們的財務狀況，然後我回來更詳細地討論我們的每項業務。

Thanks, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Slide #12 summarizes our results for the fourth quarter and full year for Kellanova. As John indicated, the year-on-year growth rates are based on recast results for the 4 quarters of 2022 and the first 3 quarters of 2023.

謝謝，史蒂夫。大家，早安。投影片 #12 總結了 Kellanova 第四季和全年的業績。正如約翰所指出的，年成長率是根據 2022 年第 4 季和 2023 年前 3 季的重新計算結果得出的。

As you can see, our results for the quarter came in above the guidance we had provided, and they complete a full year in which we maintained our focus on delivering consistent on-algorithm results even amidst the incremental work of executing the spinoff. Net sales increased by about 7% on an organic and recast basis in quarter 4, featuring decelerating volume declines and price mix growth that is moderating as we lap significant revenue growth management actions in the prior year.

正如您所看到的，我們本季的業績超出了我們提供的指導，並且全年我們仍然專注於提供一致的演算法結果，即使在執行分拆的增量工作中也是如此。第4 季的淨銷售額在有機和重鑄的基礎上增長了約7%，其特點是銷量下降放緩，而且隨著我們在上一年採取了重大的收入增長管理行動，價格組合增長正在放緩。

For the full year, Kellanova's organic net sales growth was about 8%, well above our long-term growth target. Operating profit in quarter 4 increased by 30% on an adjusted and currency-neutral basis and comparing against a recast 2022. This was driven by the solid top line growth as well as by a restoration of our underlying gross profit margin and reimbursement for expenses related to transition services we are providing to WK Kellogg Company.

全年來看，Kellanova 的有機淨銷售額成長約為 8%，遠高於我們的長期成長目標。與 2022 年重述相比，第四季度營業利潤在調整後和貨幣中性的基礎上增長了 30%。這是由穩健的營收成長以及我們基本毛利率的恢復和相關費用報銷推動的我們向WK Kellogg 公司提供的過渡服務。

For the full year, Kellanova's operating profit increased by 18% on the same recast basis. Even taking into account the year-over-year impact of expense reimbursement for transition services, provided to WKKC in quarter 4, '23, which did not exist in the year earlier quarter. Our year-on-year growth in operating profit was still in double digits for the quarter and the year, well ahead of our long-term target.

全年，Kellanova 的營業利潤在相同的調整基礎上成長了 18%。即使考慮到 23 年第 4 季向 WKKC 提供的過渡服務費用報銷的同比影響，而去年同期並不存在這種影響。本季和全年我們的營業利潤同比增長仍保持兩位數，遠超我們的長期目標。

Earnings per share on an adjusted and currency-neutral basis increased by about 19% year-on-year in quarter 4 and by 7% year-to-date as strong operating profit performance more than covered significant headwinds from macroeconomic factors that drove up interest expense and pull down pension income.

調整後且貨幣中性的每股收益在第四季度同比增長約 19%，年初至今增長 7%，因為強勁的營業利潤表現足以抵消宏觀經濟因素帶​​來的重大阻力，從而提高人們的興趣費用並拉低退休金收入。

Finally, free cash flow came in higher than we had expected in quarter 4, finishing the year at $968 million. Free cash flow is not recast for discontinued operations. So the decrease from last year's solely related to onetime outlays related to the spin-off and the absence of North America cereals cash flow in the fourth quarter.

最後，第四季的自由現金流高於我們的預期，全年達到 9.68 億美元。自由現金流不會因終止經營而重新調整。因此，與去年相比的下降僅與分拆相關的一次性支出以及第四季度北美穀物現金流的缺失有關。

Now let's take a look at each metric in closer detail starting with our net sales growth on Slide #13. As expected, price elasticities continue to rise around the world in quarter 4, putting pressure on volume though this volume, again, came in better than projected due to better performance in our emerging markets.

現在，讓我們從投影片#13 上的淨銷售額成長開始，更詳細地了解每個指標。正如預期的那樣，第四季度全球價格彈性持續上升，給銷售帶來壓力，但由於新興市場表現較好，銷售再次優於預期。

Price/mix continued to moderate sequentially from recent quarters as expected as we lap some of our largest revenue growth management actions last year. The result was another quarter of elevated organic net sales growth, though, to be clear, about half of that came from our Africa joint ventures where substantial pricing is needed to cover a devaluing currency and shipments were unusually strong. That said, even excluding that business, we sustained organic growth that was in line with our long-term target.

由於我們去年採取了一些最大的收入成長管理措施，價格/組合繼續從最近幾季開始放緩，正如預期的那樣。結果是有機淨銷售額又成長了一個季度，但需要明確的是，其中大約一半來自我們的非洲合資企業，這些企業需要大量定價來應對貨幣貶值，而且出貨量異常強勁。也就是說，即使排除該業務，我們仍維持了符合我們長期目標的有機成長。

Moving across to the nonorganic drivers of net sales, the divestiture of our Russia business, which occurred in July, clipped about 1 percentage point from our overall net sales growth in quarter 4, just as it did in quarter 3.

轉向淨銷售額的非有機驅動因素，我們在 7 月剝離的俄羅斯業務使我們第四季度的整體淨銷售額增長下降了約 1 個百分點，就像第三季度一樣。

Foreign currency translation was a headwind of about negative 6 percentage points in quarter 4 and about negative 4 percentage points for the full year. This reflected primarily the Nigerian naira, which continued to devalue during the fourth quarter and was only partially offset by strength in the euro, pound sterling and Mexican peso. While we don't provide guidance on foreign exchange rates, if today's rates held for the year, we would likely experience an impact on net sales that is similar to the impact that we saw in quarter 4.

外幣換算在第四季帶來了約負 6 個百分點的逆風，全年則逆風約負 4 個百分點。這主要反映了尼日利亞奈拉在第四季度繼續貶值，僅部分被歐元、英鎊和墨西哥比索走強所抵消。雖然我們不提供外匯匯率指導，但如果今年的匯率不變，我們可能會受到與第四季類似的淨銷售額影響。

Now let's discuss our profit margin recovery, starting with gross profit on Slide #14. In quarter 4, we continue to grow gross profit and restore gross profit margins. As in the previous quarters, this restoration of margins was aided by revenue growth management, productivity and improved supply and service levels. In addition, the other half of the quarter's margin expansion was driven by reimbursement of expenses related to transition services provided to WKKC, which did not exist in the year ago quarter.

現在讓我們討論我們的利潤率恢復情況，從幻燈片#14 上的毛利開始。第四季度，我們繼續成長毛利並恢復毛利率。與前幾季一樣，利潤率的恢復得益於收入成長管理、生產力以及供應和服務水準的提高。此外，本季利潤率擴張的另一半是由向 WKKC 提供的過渡服務相關費用報銷所推動的，而去年同期並不存在這種情況。

You'll notice that at 34% in quarter 4, Kellanova's gross margin is structurally higher than Kellogg Company's margin, and it continued to come in higher than we had anticipated. We expect to continue to improve gross margin in 2024.

您會注意到，Kellanova 的毛利率在第四季度為 34%，在結構上高於家樂氏公司的毛利率，並且繼續高於我們的預期。我們預計2024年毛利率將持續改善。

Turning to Slide #15. We see that in quarter 4 and the full year, we also grew operating profit, driven by growth in net sales and the higher gross profit margin. Meantime, operating profit margin improved year-on-year in quarter 4 and the full year. Remember, the 12.3% margin you see for 2023 is recast for discontinued operations so it does not include reimbursement for transition service expenses during the first 3 quarters. We expect our operating profit margin to reach 14% in 2024.

轉向投影片 #15。我們看到，在第四季和全年，在淨銷售額成長和毛利率上升的推動下，我們的營業利潤也有所成長。同時，第四季和全年營業利潤率較去年同期有所改善。請記住，您看到的 2023 年 12.3% 的利潤率是根據已停止營運的業務重新計算的，因此不包括前 3 個季度過渡服務費用的報銷。我們預計 2024 年營業利潤率將達到 14%。

Moving down the income statement. Slide #16 shows how our adjusted basis earnings per share growth in 2023, even on a recast basis felt the year-on-year effects of macro-related headwinds within our nonoperating below-the-line items. These below-the-line pressures were expected and were experienced year-on-year in quarter 4 and the full year, even comparing to a recast 2022, and for all the reasons we have discussed previously.

將損益表向下移動。第 16 張投影片顯示了我們 2023 年調整後每股盈餘的成長（即使在重新調整的基礎上）如何感受到我們非經營性線下專案中宏觀相關不利因素的同比影響。這些線下壓力是預料之中的，並且在第四季度和全年同比都經歷過，甚至與重鑄的 2022 年相比也是如此，出於我們之前討論過的所有原因。

Foreign currency translation was modestly positive to earnings per share in 2023, including quarter 4 as strength in European and Mexican currencies more than offset what is a relatively small impact from Nigeria naira at the EPS level. Recall that due to our ownership structure, while the naira had a large impact on net sales its impact on operating profit and EPS is much smaller.

外幣折算對 2023 年（包括第 4 季）每股盈餘略有正向影響，因為歐洲和墨西哥貨幣的強勢足以抵銷奈及利亞奈拉對每股盈餘水準相對較小的影響。回想一下，由於我們的所有權結構，雖然奈拉對淨銷售額有很大影響，但對營業利潤和每股盈餘的影響要小得多。

Turning to Slide #17. We are pleased with our cash flow generation and balance sheet. Noting that we have not recast free cash flow for discontinued items, we finished 2023 only modestly below 2022 despite the absence of the spun-off North America cereal cash flows for a quarter, and despite onetime cash outlays related to the spin-off. In fact, the combination of these spin-off factors amounted to about $300 million of negative impact. If you added that back, you can see that our free cash flow would have come in above 2022 levels. Our balance sheet after the transfer of net debt to WKKC remains solid with debt leverage remaining well below our targeted ratio of net debt to trailing EBITDA of 3x.

轉向投影片 #17。我們對我們的現金流量產生和資產負債表感到滿意。注意到我們沒有重新調整停產項目的自由現金流，儘管有一個季度沒有分拆的北美穀物現金流，並且儘管有與分拆相關的一次性現金支出，但我們2023 年的業績僅略低於2022年。事實上，這些附帶因素加在一起造成的負面影響約為 3 億美元。如果您將其加回來，您可以看到我們的自由現金流將高於 2022 年的水平。將淨負債轉移至 WKKC 後，我們的資產負債表依然穩健，負債槓桿仍遠低於我們 3 倍的淨負債與往績 EBITDA 的目標比率。

Now let's discuss our 2024 guidance shown on Slide #18. The 2023 base is recast for discontinued operations. And because these figures may differ from WKKC carve-out figures and our internal management figures, we've chosen to continue to provide you with absolute dollar guidance for operating profit and earnings per share in 2024. After all, '24 is what is really important as it is the first full year in our current P&L structure.

現在讓我們討論投影片 #18 中顯示的 2024 年指南。 2023 年基地針對已停產的業務進行了重鑄。由於這些數據可能與 WKKC 剝離數據和我們的內部管理數據有所不同，因此我們選擇繼續為您提供 2024 年營業利潤和每股收益的絕對美元指導。畢竟，「24」才是真正的數字。重要的是，因為這是我們目前損益結構的第一個完整年度。

Let's go through each metric. For net sales, we affirm our guidance for growth within our long-term targeted range, specifically calling for a 3% growth or better in 2024. Across most of our businesses, price mix growth will moderate as we continue to lap prior actions and industry-wide elasticities will fade gradually during the year. The exception is Nigeria where currency influence pricing actions will likely continue, which we assume produce meaningful elasticity impact on volume.

讓我們來看看每個指標。對於淨銷售額，我們確認了長期目標範圍內的成長指引，特別呼籲2024 年實現3% 或更高的成長。在我們的大多數業務中，隨著我們繼續遵循先前的行動和行業，價格組合成長將放緩- 整體彈性將在年內逐漸減弱。奈及利亞是個例外，該國貨幣影響定價行為可能會持續，我們認為這會對交易量產生有意義的彈性影響。

Organic growth, of course, excludes currency translation, which based on today's exchange rates, would be a headwind of 5% to 6%. For adjusted basis operating profit, we continue to provide absolute dollar guidance because year-on-year growth rate can be impacted by discontinued operations accounting. We are affirming the range of $1.85 billion to $1.9 billion. This incorporates a negative impact from currency translation, which based on today's exchange rates, would be approximately 2%, versus recast 2023 figures, this implies growth in operating profit in the mid-teens.

當然，有機成長不包括貨幣換算，根據今天的匯率，這將是 5% 至 6% 的阻力。對於調整後的基本營業利潤，我們繼續提供絕對美元指導，因為年比成長率可能受到終止營運會計的影響。我們確認的範圍為 18.5 億美元至 19 億美元。這包括貨幣換算的負面影響，根據今天的匯率，與重新計算的 2023 年數字相比，貨幣換算約為 2%，這意味著營業利潤將增長到十幾歲左右。

After taking into account the year-over-year impact of expense reimbursement for transition services provided to WKKC for 4 quarters in 2024 versus only in the fourth quarter in 2023, this year-on-year growth is still in the mid-single digits, solidly on our long-term target.

考慮到 2024 年 4 個季度向西九龍中心提供的過渡服務費用報銷與 2023 年第 4 季相比的同比影響後，這一同比增長仍處於中個位數，堅定我們的長期目標。

Our guidance implies continued margin expansion as an improving gross profit margin more than offsets a strong increase in brand investment. We expect to reach a 14% operating margin in 2024. Adjusted basis, earnings per share is still expected to be in the range of $3.55 to $3.65. We make no change to our previously communicated expectation for an increase in our effective tax rate to 23%.

我們的指引意味著利潤率持續擴張，因為毛利率的提高足以抵消品牌投資的強勁成長。我們預計 2024 年營業利潤率將達到 14%。調整後，每股盈餘預計仍將在 3.55 美元至 3.65 美元之間。我們沒有改變先前傳達的將有效稅率提高至 23% 的預期。

Our outlook for interest expense is about $310 million and we expect other income to be around $50 million. And we are affirming outlook for free cash flow of approximately $1 billion with year-on-year growth driven by operating profit partially offset by capital expenditure temporarily elevated for expanded Pringles capacity in emerging markets and modest cash outlays related to our 2 network optimization projects.

我們預計利息支出約為 3.1 億美元，其他收入約為 5,000 萬美元。我們確認自由現金流的前景約為10 億美元，營業利潤推動的同比增長部分被因擴大品客薯片在新興市場產能而暫時增加的資本支出以及與我們的2 個網絡優化項目相關的適度現金支出所抵消。

These network optimization projects are addressed on Slide #19. At our Day@K investor event in August, we cited network optimization as one of the drivers of our margin expansion, and we are now ready to discuss specific initiatives. The 2 projects we are announcing today are both high return projects. Only about half of the project's upfront costs are cash even before asset sales and the projects collectively become cash neutral by 2025.

這些網路最佳化項目在投影片 #19 中進行了討論。在 8 月的 Day@K 投資者活動中，我們將網路優化視為利潤擴張的驅動因素之一，現在我們準備討論具體舉措。我們今天宣布的兩個項目都是高回報項目。即使在資產出售之前，該項目的前期成本也只有大約一半是現金，到 2025 年，這些項目將全部實現現金中立。

In 2024, specifically, upfront costs will amount to about $160 million with less than $40 million of that in cash, and this has been incorporated into our cash flow guidance. Savings for the projects start very quickly with a small portion of the overall $75 million coming as soon as the second half of 2024. And this too is incorporated into our guidance. In fact, this is a contributor to our operating profit margin expanding to 14% this year as implied by our operating profit guidance. Importantly, with this announcement, we can also now be more specific about the timing of our medium-term goal of a 15% operating margin. We expect to reach that margin in 2026.

具體而言，到 2024 年，前期成本將達到約 1.6 億美元，其中現金不到 4,000 萬美元，已納入我們的現金流量指引。這些項目的節省很快就開始了，7500 萬美元總額中的一小部分最早將於 2024 年下半年實現。這也納入了我們的指導。事實上，正如我們的營業利潤指導所暗示的那樣，這是我們今年營業利潤率擴大至 14% 的一個因素。重要的是，透過這項公告，我們現在還可以更具體地說明實現 15% 營業利潤率中期目標的時間表。我們預計將在 2026 年達到這一利潤率。

So let's summarize our financial condition on Slide #20. In what was our debut quarter as Kellanova, our fourth quarter results came in as guided from net sales to earnings per share. The business remains in good shape with margin restoration proceeding ahead of pace and volume performance on a path of gradual improvement. Consequently, we have affirmed our guidance for 2024, even amidst challenging industry and macroeconomic conditions. Our medium-term goal of attaining a 15% operating profit margin has been accelerated to 2026 as ongoing margin expansion drivers are now augmented by network optimization initiatives, which get started this year subject to consultation.

讓我們在投影片#20 上總結一下我們的財務狀況。在 Kellanova 的首個季度，我們的第四季度業績是根據淨銷售額和每股收益得出的。業務仍保持良好狀態，利潤率恢復進展順利，銷售表現逐漸改善。因此，即使在充滿挑戰的行業和宏觀經濟條件下，我們也確認了 2024 年的指導方針。我們實現 15% 營業利潤率的中期目標已加速到 2026 年，因為網路優化舉措現已增強了持續的利潤率擴張驅動力，這些舉措將於今年開始，但需徵求意見。

And we continue to generate strong free cash flow that, along with our deleveraged balance sheet gives us financial flexibility. This flexibility has been on display in the form of opportunistic share buybacks during quarter 4 and in our decision to elevate capital investment to expand capacity for our rapidly growing Pringles business. So we enter 2024 in a strong financial condition.

我們繼續產生強勁的自由現金流，加上去槓桿化的資產負債表，為我們提供了財務靈活性。這種靈活性體現在第四季度的機會性股票回購以及我們決定增加資本投資以擴大快速成長的品客薯片業務的產能。因此，我們以強勁的財務狀況進入 2024 年。

Let me now turn it back to Steve for a run-through of our businesses around the world.

現在讓我把它轉回給史蒂夫，讓他概述我們在世界各地的業務。

Thanks, Amit. Slide #22 splits our portfolio into category groups to help remind you of their relative sizes and growth rates. This view shows you how much each category group contributed to our strong organic net sales growth in the quarter and for the full year.

謝謝，阿米特。投影片 #22 將我們的投資組合分為多個類別組，以幫助提醒您它們的相對規模和成長率。此視圖向您顯示每個類別組對我們本季和全年強勁的有機淨銷售額成長的貢獻。

Now let's review each of our regions, which are our reporting segments. We'll start with Kellanova in North America in Slide #23. North America's fourth quarter results continued to show the impact of rising elasticities across all of our categories. Recall that we entered 2023 with low service levels due to economy-wide bottlenecks and shortages and therefore, we elected to launch less innovation and to return to merchandising only after we were strongly confident that service levels have returned to normal levels. This, in conjunction with category elasticity suddenly and rapidly rising negatively impacted our volumes, particularly in the second half.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們的每個區域，即我們的報告部門。我們將從幻燈片 #23 中北美的 Kellanova 開始。北美第四季的業績持續顯示出我們所有類別彈性上升的影響。回想一下，進入 2023 年，由於整個經濟的瓶頸和短缺，我們的服務水準較低，因此，我們選擇減少創新，只有在我們堅信服務水準已恢復到正常水準後才恢復銷售。再加上類別彈性突然迅速上升，對我們的銷售產生了負面影響，特別是在下半年。

Despite lapping an unusually strong year earlier period, North America's operating profit grew strongly year-on-year in the fourth quarter, even accounting for the reimbursement of expenses related to transition services provided to WKKC in this year's quarter 4, North America's operating profit grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, continuing to restore underlying gross profit margin and operating profit margin by more than projected.

儘管去年同期表現異常強勁，但北美第四季度的營業利潤同比強勁增長，即使考慮到今年第四季度向 WKKC 提供的過渡服務相關費用報銷，北美的營業利潤仍然增長同比增長中個位數，繼續恢復基礎毛利率和營業利益率，超乎預期。

So in spite of slowing categories and amidst the organization undergoing significant change related to the spin-off, North America again delivered financially. Within its key category groups, we can see the deceleration in top line growth caused by the rising elasticities.

因此，儘管類別放緩，組織正在經歷與分拆相關的重大變化，但北美地區再次實現了財務目標。在其關鍵品類組中，我們可以看到由於彈性上升而導致收入成長放緩。

Slide #24 shows our North America snacks business, which experienced slowing category growth rates during the year. Volume growth rates in our categories did not worsen in the fourth quarter, though elasticities continued to edge higher. We continue to feel the impact of less innovation year-on-year particularly in crackers, and this will be addressed in 2024 when we return to a full innovation launch calendar. And we did see year-on-year increases in display activity and our return to merchandising and improving quality of displays will continue to gain traction as we head into the new year.

投影片 #24 顯示了我們的北美零食業務，該業務在這一年中品類成長率放緩。儘管彈性持續上升，但我們類別的銷售成長率在第四季並未惡化。我們繼續感受到創新逐年減少的影響，尤其是在餅乾領域，這個問題將在 2024 年我們回到完整的創新發布日曆時得到解決。我們確實看到展示活動逐年增加，隨著我們進入新的一年，我們回歸銷售和提高展示品質將繼續受到關注。

It was a similar story in frozen foods, shown on Slide #25. Along with the frozen breakfast category, Eggo's consumption turned to a decline in the fourth quarter on rising elasticities. MorningStar Farms continued to gain share but in a declining veg vegan category. We believe these conditions are transitory for both categories and expect better performance in 2024.

冷凍食品也有類似的情況，如幻燈片 #25 所示。與冷凍早餐類別一樣，Eggo 的消費量在第四季也因彈性上升而下降。晨星農場的市場份額持續增加，但純素食類別的份額正在下降。我們認為這些情況對於這兩個類別來說都是暫時的，預計 2024 年會有更好的表現。

So let's talk about what to expect from North America in 2024, indicated on Slide #26. First, with supply impediments well behind us, we are returning to full commercial activity in 2024. This starts with a full slate of innovation launches and it includes a full year of robust merchandising and display activity. We will also continue to support our focused brands with increased brand-building investment. The results should be improved in market performance and a gradual return to volume growth. And if you have been watching the Pop-Tarts bowl and Cheez-It bowl as well as the upcoming Pringles activation for Sunday's big game are good examples of how we plan to show up in 2024.

因此，讓我們談談幻燈片 #26 所示的 2024 年北美的預期。首先，供應障礙已經過去，我們將在 2024 年恢復全面的商業活動。這首先是一系列創新發布，包括全年強勁的推銷和展示活動。我們也將繼續透過增加品牌建立投資來支持我們的重點品牌。結果應該是市場表現有所改善並逐漸恢復銷售成長。如果你一直在看 Pop-Tarts 碗和 Cheez-It 碗以及即將在周日大型比賽中進行的品客薯片 (Pringles) 活動，這些都是我們計劃在 2024 年如何亮相的好例子。

Now let's turn to Kellanova Europe in Slide #27. Here we finished the year with another strong quarter, yet again, delivering organic net sales growth on top of prior year growth. In a market that is extremely price sensitive, we were again able to realize double-digit price/mix growth through effective revenue growth management actions, though elasticity did rise impacting volume.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片#27 中的 Kellanova Europe。在此，我們以又一個強勁的季度結束了這一年，再次實現了在去年成長之上的有機淨銷售額成長。在一個對價格極為敏感的市場中，我們透過有效的營收成長管理行動再次實現了兩位數的價格/組合成長，儘管彈性確實上升影響了銷售量。

Our organic net sales growth was 10% in the quarter and 9% for the full year. Europe delivered strong operating profit growth in the fourth quarter and full year. Granted, this was lapping a sharp year ago decline, but it did feature strong top line growth and better margin recovery than expected, getting its operating profit margin back to flat for the full year.

本季我們的有機淨銷售額成長 10%，全年成長 9%。歐洲第四季和全年營業利潤成長強勁。誠然，這已經擺脫了去年同期的大幅下滑，但它確實具有強勁的營收成長和比預期更好的利潤率恢復，使其全年營業利潤率恢復到持平。

On Slide #28, you can see that snacks, which represent over half of our sales in Kellanova Europe continued to lead our growth in this region. Our double-digit organic growth in net sales, both in the quarter and for the full year was across all of our major subregions. Revenue growth management actions drove the growth, while volume declines remained relatively modest. The salty snacks category has slowed but remained in high single-digit growth across key markets and Pringles in the fourth quarter was tracking to gain share, led by the U.K. and Spain. In portable wholesome snacks, we have managed to outpace the category in the U.K. and Italy.

在幻燈片 #28 上，您可以看到占我們在 Kellanova Europe 銷售額一半以上的零食繼續引領我們在該地區的成長。我們所有主要次區域的淨銷售額在本季度和全年均實現了兩位數的有機成長。收入成長管理行動推動了成長，而銷量下降仍然相對溫和。鹹味零食類別成長放緩，但在主要市場仍保持高個位數成長，第四季度品客洋芋片 (Pringles) 的市場份額不斷增加，其中英國和西班牙領先。在便攜式健康零食領域，我們已經超越了英國和義大利的同類產品。

In cereal, shown on Slide #29, you can see that we grew net sales organically in the quarter. This, too, is led by revenue growth management actions, while elasticities have been running higher in this category than in our snacks categories. We finished 2023 with organic net sales growth of about 1%.

在投影片 #29 中顯示的穀物食品中，您可以看到我們本季的淨銷售額有機成長。這也是由收入成長管理行動所帶動的，而該類別的彈性一直高於我們的零食類別。 2023 年，我們的有機淨銷售額成長約為 1%。

Slide #30 points to some elements to watch for in Europe in 2024. We expect to deliver a seventh consecutive year of organic growth. The growth will be led by snacks with Pringles continuing to be supported with innovation and brand building and portable wholesome snacks in key markets, notably Pop-Tarts and Rice Krispies Squares. We're also excited about launching Cheez-It in key European markets in the second half. In cereal, our focus will be on optimizing our cereal portfolio in conjunction with the manufacturing network optimization that we're commencing this year.

第 30 張幻燈片指出了 2024 年歐洲值得關注的一些因素。我們預計將連續第七年的有機成長。零食將引領這一成長，品客薯片將繼續在主要市場（尤其是水果餡餅和脆米花廣場）得到創新和品牌建設以及便攜式健康零食的支持。我們也很高興下半年在歐洲主要市場推出 Cheez-It。在穀物食品方面，我們的重點將是結合今年開始的製造網路優化來優化穀物產品組合。

Now let's look at our emerging markets regions, starting with Latin America on Slide #31. In the fourth quarter, Latin America's net sales grew 5% on an organic and recast basis, with volume declines moderating even in spite of sizable impact from our SKU rationalization and price pack architecture initiatives. The region finished the year with strong 8% organic net sales growth. Operating profit declined in the fourth quarter against a substantial year earlier gain. But despite some incremental investments and transitory cost pressures, it finished the full year with 8% growth on an adjusted and currency-neutral basis.

現在讓我們看看我們的新興市場地區，從幻燈片#31 上的拉丁美洲開始。第四季度，拉丁美洲的淨銷售額在有機和重新調整的基礎上增長了 5%，儘管我們的 SKU 合理化和價格包架構舉措產生了相當大的影響，但銷量下降幅度有所放緩。該地區以 8% 的有機淨銷售額強勁增長結束了這一年。第四季營業利潤較去年同期大幅成長下降。儘管有一些增量投資和暫時的成本壓力，但在調整後和貨幣中性的基礎上，全年仍實現了 8% 的成長。

Slide #32 shows that our snack sales were flat on an organic basis in the fourth quarter comparing against a notably strong year earlier period. Pringles continued to perform well. In-market data show sustained double-digit category growth for our major salty snacks markets with Pringles gaining share in Brazil and holding share in Mexico, and we continue to outpace the portable wholesome snacks category in Mexico, though we did see rising elasticities in cookies in Brazil.

投影片 #32 顯示，與去年同期的強勁表現相比，第四季我們的零食銷售額基本上持平。品客洋芋片繼續表現出色。市場數據顯示，我們的主要鹹味零食市場持續實現兩位數的品類增長，品客薯片在巴西的份額不斷增加，在墨西哥的份額不斷增加，我們在墨西哥的便攜式健康零食類別中繼續領先，儘管我們確實看到餅乾的彈性不斷上昇在巴西。

Our Latin America Snacks business finished the full year with 7% organic net sales growth. In Latin America cereal, shown on Slide #33, our organic net sales growth was strong in the quarter and for the full year. Specifically, sales grew 10% in the quarter and finished the full year with 9% growth. Cereal category consumption growth has held up in the mid- to high single digits across much of the region, and we gained share in Mexico.

我們的拉丁美洲零食業務全年淨銷售額有機成長 7%。在拉丁美洲穀物食品方面，如幻燈片 #33 所示，我們的有機淨銷售額成長在本季和全年都很強勁。具體而言，本季銷售額成長 10%，全年銷售額成長 9%。該地區大部分地區的穀物類別消費成長一直保持在中高個位數，我們在墨西哥的份額也有所增加。

As we look to 2024, a few things to watch for in Latin America are shown on Slide #34. We expect a seventh straight year of organic net sales growth. The growth should be led by snacks, particularly behind Pringles innovation and distribution expansion, and we also expect good growth in cereal. Margins should improve, reflecting price pack architecture and other RGM initiatives and operating efficiencies as well as moderating input cost pressures.

當我們展望 2024 年時，幻燈片 #34 顯示了拉丁美洲一些值得關注的事情。我們預計有機淨銷售額將連續第七年成長。成長應以零食為主導，特別是在品客洋芋片創新和分銷擴張的推動下，我們也預期穀物食品將出現良好成長。利潤率應該會有所改善，反映出價格包架構和其他 RGM 措施以及營運效率以及投入成本壓力的緩解。

Slide #35 shows the financial performance of our AMEA region. This region sustained its strong momentum in the fourth quarter when organic net sales growth reaccelerated to 22% on a combination of price mix growth and volume growth led by Africa. For the full year, our organic net sales growth was 17%. Now obviously, a large portion of this currency neutral growth came from Nigeria, where currency devaluation necessitated significant pricing actions. Nevertheless, the rest of AMEA posted solid growth in the quarter as well.

投影片 #35 顯示了我們 AMEA 地區的財務績效。該地區在第四季度保持了強勁的勢頭，在價格組合增長和以非洲為首的銷量增長的共同作用下，有機淨銷售額增長重新加速至 22%。全年，我們的有機淨銷售額成長率為 17%。現在顯然，這種貨幣中性成長的很大一部分來自奈及利亞，那裡的貨幣貶值需要採取重大的定價行動。儘管如此，AMEA 的其他地區在本季也實現了穩健成長。

Margins continue to recover year-on-year, and operating profit grew 25% in the quarter on an adjusted and currency-neutral basis in spite of substantially higher brand investment and despite lapping strong prior year growth. Its operating profit increased by 20% for the full year.

儘管品牌投資大幅增加且實現了上年的強勁增長，但利潤率繼續同比恢復，在調整後和貨幣中性的基礎上，本季度營業利潤增長了 25%。全年營業利潤成長20%。

Within AMEA, we see on Slide #36, that snacks grew organically at a double-digit pace in the fourth quarter and for the full year. This growth was led by Pringles in emerging markets across Asia, Africa and the Middle East as well as in more developed markets like Australia, Korea and Japan. Pringles continued to gain share overall, principally due to outperformance in Thailand, Australia and Japan.

在 AMEA 內，我們在幻燈片 #36 中看到，零食在第四季度和全年以兩位數的速度有機增長。這一成長主要由品客洋芋片在亞洲、非洲和中東的新興市場以及澳洲、韓國和日本等較發達市場帶動。品客洋芋片的整體市佔率持續增加，主要是因為泰國、澳洲和日本的出色表現。

In cereal, shown on Slide #37, we sustained organic growth, posting 4% growth in the fourth quarter and 6% growth for the full year. This was led by emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

如投影片 #37 所示，在穀物方面，我們保持了有機成長，第四季成長 4%，全年成長 6%。其中以非洲、中東和亞洲的新興市場為主。

And we finish with noodles and other shown on Slide #38. Revenue growth management actions continue to be taken in Nigeria as we try to keep up with weakened currencies but volume also grew in the double digits in the fourth quarter, reflecting the strength of our brands and our execution as well as timing of shipments. Meanwhile, we also continue to expand our Kellogg's noodles business outside of Nigeria and this also contributed to our volume growth in the quarter.

我們最後吃的是麵條和幻燈片 #38 上顯示的其他東西。我們在尼日利亞繼續採取收入成長管理行動，以應對貨幣疲軟的情況，但第四季度的銷量也以兩位數增長，反映了我們品牌的實力、執行力以及發貨時間。同時，我們也繼續將家樂氏麵條業務擴展到尼日利亞以外的地區，這也促進了我們本季銷售的成長。

We expect AMEA to sustain momentum into 2024 as discussed on Slide #39. To deliver the region's 17th straight year of organic net sales growth, we expect to see strong growth if moderating from 2023 rates in noodles and other. We expect to see sustained momentum in snacks, led by Pringles, and we expect a sustained growth in cereal, led by emerging markets. Margin expansion should continue led by our businesses outside of Nigeria, in those markets, input cost pressures are finally moderating and productivity and operating leverage continued to contribute positively.

正如幻燈片 #39 中所討論的，我們預計 AMEA 將保持勢頭直至 2024 年。為了實現該地區連續 17 年實現有機淨銷售額成長，我們預計，如果麵條和其他產品的成長速度較 2023 年放緩，將會出現強勁成長。我們預計以品客洋芋片 (Pringles) 為首的零食將保持持續成長勢頭，並預計以新興市場為首的穀物食品將持續成長。我們在尼日利亞以外的業務應繼續引領利潤率擴張，在這些市場中，投入成本壓力最終正在緩解，生產力和營運槓桿繼續做出積極貢獻。

So let me summarize with Slide #41. Simply put, the Kellanova era is off to a good start. We've executed well the spin-off and the post spin-off operations, including transition services, and we delivered our initial quarter ahead of our expectations. We're now shifting back to a focus on demand generation after a few years of supply focus. We're very excited about our 2024 commercial plans which feature a return to a full complement of innovation, brand building, merchandising as well as sustaining momentum and scale building in our emerging markets. We're also pleased with our progress and plans for restoring and expanding profit margins, which has proceeded faster than we had anticipated.

讓我用投影片#41 來總結一下。簡言之，凱拉諾瓦時代有了一個好的開始。我們很好地執行了分拆和分拆後業務，包括過渡服務，我們第一季的業績超出了我們的預期。經過幾年的供應重點之後，我們現在正在重新關注需求的產生。我們對 2024 年商業計劃感到非常興奮，該計劃的特點是全面恢復創新、品牌建設、銷售以及在新興市場保持勢頭和規模建設。我們也對恢復和擴大利潤率的進展和計劃感到滿意，其進展速度比我們預期的要快。

Our outlook for 2024 were shared with you as far back as last August remains intact, calling for another year of on-algorithm sales and profit growth, and we're not sitting still. We're already creating the future. For instance, we are adding much needed capacity for Pringles in emerging markets. The international expansion of Cheez-It continues with launches coming in Europe, and we are commencing network optimization initiatives that will both expand margins and fuel growth investments.

早在去年 8 月，我們就已與您分享了 2024 年的展望，並呼籲演算法銷售和利潤在新一年繼續增長，我們不會坐以待斃。我們已經在創造未來。例如，我們正在為新興市場的品客薯片增加急需的產能。隨著在歐洲的推出，Cheez-It 的國際擴張仍在繼續，我們正在啟動網路優化計劃，這將擴大利潤並推動成長投資。

In sum, we are on track and ready to deliver as Kellanova, and the future certainly is bright. Of course, none of this would be possible without the grit and skill of our supremely talented Kellanova employees, all of whom are determined as ever to differentiate, drive and deliver.

總而言之，我們已經步入正軌，並準備好以 Kellanova 的身份交付成果，未來肯定是光明的。當然，如果沒有我們才華橫溢的 Kellanova 員工的勇氣和技能，這一切都是不可能實現的，他們所有人都一如既往地決心與眾不同、推動和交付。

And now we'd be happy to take your questions.

現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from Peter Galbo of Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Peter Galbo。

Maybe just first a comment. Hopefully, the -- hopefully, the edible Pop-Tarts is going to make its way down to CAGNY. I think a lot of people would enjoy that.

也許只是先發表評論。希望可食用的果餡餅能夠進入 CAGNY。我想很多人都會喜歡這樣。

Peter, he didn't survive the bowl game in case you weren't watching.

彼得，如果你沒看的話，他沒能在碗賽中存活下來。

We'll have to find another. Amit, just to clarify your comments on the guidance, understanding organic sales, the plus 3, and I think you said at current rate is a headwind of 5% to 6% on top line from FX. The operating profit range though, the dollar range, did I hear you correctly that, that included a 2-point hit? Or is that in addition, so we should be taking that into consideration on the dollar range?

我們得再找一個。阿米特，只是為了澄清您對指導意見的評論，了解有機銷售、+ 3，我認為您說過，以目前的速度，外匯收入將出現 5% 至 6% 的逆風。不過營業利潤範圍，美元範圍，我沒聽錯吧，其中包括 2 點命中？或者是另外的，所以我們應該在美元範圍內考慮到這一點？

Yes. Peter, yes, that does include -- the operating profit does include the currency headwind. So just confirming that. Like I mentioned, it's approximately around 2% at today's rates. So that 2% is built into the dollar numbers that we've given.

是的。彼得，是的，這確實包括——營業利潤確實包括貨幣逆風。所以只是確認一下。正如我所提到的，以今天的匯率計算，這一比例約為 2% 左右。因此，2% 已包含在我們給出的美元數字中。

Great. And that's the same on EPS as well, the 2%?

偉大的。 EPS 也是如此，2%？

Yes. EPS is probably -- slightly lesser. Yes.

是的。每股收益可能略低一些。是的。

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow of TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow。

Steve, you called out a return to stronger innovation in North America and normal merchandising activity. Can you give us a sense of the phasing throughout the year like the retail tracking data looks very, very weak in the U.S. Is that due to a comparison to the prior year? Or does it just going to take a while for your innovation and merchandising to get you back to your normal growth rate?

史蒂夫，您呼籲北美恢復更強的創新和正常的銷售活動。您能否讓我們了解全年的分階段情況，例如美國的零售追蹤數據看起來非常非常薄弱，這是由於與前一年相比嗎？或者您的創新和行銷是否需要一段時間才能恢復正常的成長率？

Yes. It's going to -- Rob, thanks for the question. It's going to be throughout the year. Really, we started with displays coming back to prior years, better than prior year in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter, we're going to see the quality of those displays improving. That will continue into the second quarter as well.

是的。羅布，謝謝你的提問。這將是全年。事實上，我們一開始的表現就回到了往年，第四季的表現比去年更好。在第一季度，我們將看到這些顯示器的品質有所提高。這種情況也將持續到第二季​​。

And just to remind you, 2023 was a year of pullback on innovation, culling of SKUs, clearly focused on supply and making sure that we could have that supply in the market. In the U.S., though, for example, we've got Pringles Harvest Blends, which we brought in the second half of 2023. We've got Cheez-It innovations, Cheez-It Crunchy, which is hitting now. We've got Pop-Tarts Crunchy Poppers. We've got innovations around Nutri-Grain. We've got a Rice Krispies Treats with peanut butter. We've just got many more innovations than we've had in prior years, and that will roll throughout the year. We've also got distribution growing where it had been declining.

謹提醒您，2023 年是創新縮減、剔除 SKU、明確關注供應並確保我們能夠在市場上擁有供應的一年。例如，在美國，我們有品客薯片 Harvest Blends，我們於 2023 年下半年推出。我們有 Cheez-It 創新產品 Cheez-It Crunchy，現在正在熱銷。我們有脆脆爆米花餡餅。我們圍繞 Nutri-Grain 進行了創新。我們有花生醬脆米花。我們剛剛獲得了比前幾年更多的創新，並且這些創新將貫穿全年。我們的發行量也在下降的地方有所成長。

So you should see momentum growing really starting now and picking up all through the year. And that gives us really good confidence in the top line guide that we gave. The other thing I'd add, Rob, is a higher brand building investment as well, which we phased into the first half of this year as well to really drive that quality of display and that quality of merchandising.

因此，您應該會看到勢頭從現在開始真正增長，並在全年中不斷增強。這讓我們對我們提供的頂線指南充滿信心。羅布，我要補充的另一件事是更高的品牌建設投資，我們也在今年上半年分階段進行，以真正提高展示品質和銷售品質。

So when do you think we'll see like the top line growth really show up in the retail tracking? Is it going to be like third quarter kind of thing? Or could it happen as early as 2Q?

那麼，您認為我們什麼時候會看到零售追蹤中真正體現出營收成長？會像第三季那樣嗎？或者最早會在第二季發生嗎？

There's not really an inflection point per se. I think you're going to see a cumulative improvement with probably the third quarter being the one where it be most notable and then we'll exit the year with lots of momentum. So it will be cumulative throughout the year and growing from the second into the third quarter.

本身並不存在真正的拐點。我認為你會看到累積的改善，第三季可能是最引人注目的，然後我們將以強勁的勢頭結束這一年。所以它會全年累計，並從第二季到第三季不斷成長。

Our next question comes from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

So I just wanted to touch on this innovation and merchandising comment again and just trying to contextualize 2023. Can you maybe just help understand 2023 market share performance between say, some of your brand -- or some of your extension innovations, say, your base business relative to innovations that you had done through the year that perhaps receive less support or less merchandising. Really just trying to understand is it the core where you're starting to see some of the share erosion? Or was it some of the newer products that you had launched in 2023 that perhaps didn't get as much support and going into 2024, those are really the opportunities for you to kind of recapture some of this relative share momentum.

所以我只是想再次談談這個創新和行銷評論，並試圖將2023 年置於背景中。您能否幫助了解2023 年的市場份額表現，例如您的一些品牌，或者您的一些擴展創新，例如您的基礎與您在這一年中所做的創新相關的業務可能獲得較少的支持或較少的推銷。真的只是想了解這是您開始看到一些份額侵蝕的核心嗎？或者您在 2023 年推出的一些新產品可能沒有那麼多支持，而進入 2024 年，這些確實是您重新獲得部分相對份額勢頭的機會。

Yes. Thanks, Chris. So it really -- it's not -- it's much less the core than it is some of the innovations that we really didn't support with quality display merchandising. And so if you look at Cheez-It, the Snap'd and Puff'd, and if you were to look at the cases on display for those dramatically down as we focused on the core supply. And we have owned it. We returned to merchandising later than our competitors. We were more conservative when it came to that merchandising overly focused on making sure that we had high 90s fill rates before we return to merchandising.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。所以它真的——不是——它的核心遠不如我們真正不支持的高品質展示行銷的一些創新。因此，如果你看看 Cheez-It、Snap'd 和 Puff'd，如果你看看展示的箱子，因為我們專注於核心供應，所以那些大幅下降的箱子。我們已經擁有它了。我們比競爭對手更晚回歸行銷。當涉及到行銷過度專注於確保我們在回歸行銷之前擁有高 90 年代的填充率時，我們更加保守。

So that's what you see in the share. We don't see any deterioration in our brand health. In fact, we see our brand health really at very high watermarks across Cheez-It, Pringles, Pop-Tarts, Rice Krispies Treats. And so that gives us the confidence to talk about the quality of merchandising returning and our share performance improving as we go throughout 2024, again, coupled with more brand investments in the first half of the year. When you look at our brand investment, we never -- we didn't pull back in 2023. We publish advertising only on a full year basis. You'll see advertising up in 2023, that's going to continue into 2024.

這就是您在分享中看到的內容。我們沒有看到我們的品牌健康狀況有任何惡化。事實上，我們看到 Cheez-It、Pringles、Pop-Tarts、Rice Krispies Treats 的品牌健康度確實很高。因此，這讓我們有信心談論 2024 年商品回歸的品質和我們的股價表現的改善，再加上上半年更多的品牌投資。當你看看我們的品牌投資時，我們從來沒有——我們沒有在 2023 年撤回。我們只發布全年的廣告。您將在 2023 年看到廣告，這種情況將持續到 2024 年。

Okay. So really, we should be looking at the strength of additional innovation, adding to market share performance with maybe the base business being a little bit of an uplift as well. Okay. And then...

好的。因此，實際上，我們應該專注於額外創新的力量，增加市場佔有率的表現，也許基礎業務也會有一點提升。好的。進而...

Yes, that's right because I mean, the comparisons are going to be against the year where we really didn't innovate and now we're getting back to kind of pre-COVID levels of innovation.

是的，這是正確的，因為我的意思是，比較將與我們真正沒有創新的一年進行比較，而現在我們正在回到新冠疫情之前的創新水平。

Right, right. Okay. And then just from a competitive standpoint, can you maybe just give any context for what you're seeing in the environment from a pricing and promotion standpoint. And then I think one of the categories where promotion -- or excuse me, competitive activity especially the way it's been on the Eggo business. So maybe you can just provide a high-level thoughts on competition and maybe just drill down on that specific business?

是的是的。好的。然後，從競爭的角度來看，您能否從定價和促銷的角度提供您在環境中看到的任何背景資訊。然後我認為其中一個類別是促銷活動——或者對不起，是競爭活動，尤其是 Eggo 業務的方式。那麼，也許您可以提供有關競爭的高層次想法，然後深入研究特定業務？

Yes. So you're probably asking about the U.S., the frequency of promotions continues to return to pre-pandemic levels, so 2019 levels. The depth of those promotions is really kind of back to approaching those levels off a higher base. And so I'd say the whole market is pretty benign and stable. You don't see -- I've heard some of the noise around because volumes are down, is there going to be high levels of discounting and increased frequency of promotion. We're not really seeing that.

是的。所以你可能會問美國，促銷頻率繼續恢復到疫情前的水平，也就是 2019 年的水平。這些促銷活動的深度實際上是在更高的基礎上接近這些水平。所以我想說整個市場是相當良性和穩定的。你看不到——我聽到了一些噪音，因為銷量下降，是否會出現高水準的折扣和增加促銷頻率。我們並沒有真正看到這一點。

For us, we're getting -- we're trying to get back to the pre-2019 levels, as I've mentioned a couple of times now in terms of frequency to drive quality promotional displays. But not seeing anything other than that really.

對我們來說，我們正在努力回到 2019 年之前的水平，正如我在推動高品質促銷展示的頻率方面多次提到的那樣。但除此之外真的沒有看到任何東西。

Our next question comes from Tom Palmer of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。

Wanted to maybe just kick off on operating profit. At the Investor Day, you laid out some dollar expectations by segment. Obviously, several months have passed and some segments have maybe done better or tracking better than you anticipated and some maybe not quite. So maybe just an update there. Are there any small changes as I think -- as we think about kind of the operating profit distribution across those segments versus what you had laid out?

也許只是想從營業利潤開始。在投資者日，您按細分市場列出了一些美元預期。顯然，幾個月過去了，有些細分市場的表現可能比您預期的更好或追蹤得更好，而有些細分市場的表現可能並不好。所以也許只是更新一下。正如我所認為的那樣——當我們考慮這些部門的營業利潤分配與您所製定的相比時，是否有任何小的變化？

Yes. At the Day@K, we had kind of given you the absolute dollar guidance just to kind of help set up your models, I think we don't intend to provide regional guidance going forward on an ongoing basis. But that said, I would say that all the regions for '24, we'd expect them to be within their long-term algorithms growth rates that we have shared at Day@K.

是的。在 Day@K，我們為您提供了絕對的美元指導，只是為了幫助您建立模型，我認為我們不打算持續提供區域指導。但話雖如此，我想說的是，24 世紀的所有地區，我們預計它們都在我們在 Day@K 上分享的長期演算法成長率範圍內。

Okay. And then on the reorganization announcement today for the frozen and cereal businesses, what drove the decision to make these changes? I mean, presumably, neither linked directly to the serial spin-off, but was the timing at all related to kind of increased bandwidth now that the spin has been wrapped up?

好的。那麼，今天宣布冷凍和穀物業務重組，是什麼推動了這些改變的決定？我的意思是，大概兩者都與系列衍生品沒有直接聯繫，但是現在旋轉已經結束，時間安排是否與增加的頻寬有關？

There's a little bit of that, but really, it's more -- if you think about what we've been through as an industry, focused on supply, focused on getting through the pandemic, focused on bottlenecks and shortages, the ability to really dedicate resources towards effectiveness programs and efficiency programs like this was challenging. And so we're through that right now, and we see good opportunities in the frozen business. So we'll be closing a plant and moving production to our more efficient plants in the U.K., subject to consultation. We've got our Manchester plant, which is a very large plant, which is underutilized. We can move that production into 2 facilities.

有一點，但實際上，更多的是——如果你想想我們作為一個行業所經歷的事情，專注於供應，專注於度過大流行，專注於瓶頸和短缺，真正奉獻的能力用於此類有效性計劃和效率計劃的資源具有挑戰性。所以我們現在正在經歷這個過程，我們在冷凍業務中看到了很好的機會。因此，我們將關閉一家工廠，並將生產轉移到我們在英國效率更高的工廠，但須經協商。我們有曼徹斯特工廠，這是一個非常大的工廠，但尚未充分利用。我們可以將該生產轉移到兩個工廠。

So straightforward, programs in terms of the type of efficiencies they'll drive. We're confident that it's -- they're terrific programs, but it's really a matter of having the bandwidth pre or post pandemic, post bottlenecks and shortages that will allow us to ongoing look for programs like this to continue to drive effectiveness and efficiency.

如此簡單，就其將驅動的效率類型進行規劃。我們相信，它們是很棒的計劃，但實際上是在大流行前後、瓶頸和短缺後擁有頻寬的問題，這將使我們能夠不斷尋找這樣的計劃，以繼續提高有效性和效率。

Our next question comes from Robert Dickerson of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的羅伯特·迪克森 (Robert Dickerson)。

Great. Just first question. I heard you mention increased global distribution on certain power brands as you call them, some in Europe this year, maybe in some other cities in Asia. Could you just kind of briefly discuss, add some color? It seems like what could be the opportunity there with a brand like Cheez-It and kind of what the timing is of that kind of non-U.S. distribution.

偉大的。只是第一個問題。我聽說你提到了某些你所說的強大品牌的全球分銷增加，今年有些在歐洲，也許在亞洲的其他一些城市。能簡單討論一下，加入一些顏色嗎？看起來像 Cheez-It 這樣的品牌可能有什麼機會，以及這種非美國發行的時機是什麼。

Yes, Rob, we get asked a lot why is Cheez-It primarily a U.S. brand, why not expand it 10 years ago. And I think it's a fair question. The company was very busy expanding Pringles around the world. And you see, obviously, now it's a global brand, growing all around the world, recognized everywhere, and that's the long-term ambition for something like Cheez-It, which is the next out of the gate.

是的，Rob，我們經常被問到為什麼 Cheez-It 主要是一個美國品牌，為什麼不在 10 年前擴大它的規模。我認為這是一個公平的問題。該公司正忙於在全球拓展品客薯片。你看，顯然，現在它是一個全球品牌，在世界各地成長，在世界各地都得到認可，這就是 Cheez-It 這樣的公司的長期目標，而 Cheez-It 就是下一個推出的產品。

But you start with seeds. And we launched in Canada, we launched in Brazil and Mexico. And this year, the back half of the year, we'll be launching in major markets in Europe. And so it's a long-term play. It's in our guidance. It's not really -- it's not going to be a material driver of top line. But 5 years from now, it's going to be a much bigger brand internationally than it is today. And that's really the plan. We learned from the Canada launch. We applied those learnings to Mexico -- to Brazil then to Mexico. And we've got a terrific plan for the back half of the year in Europe.

但你要從種子開始。我們在加拿大推出，在巴西和墨西哥推出。今年下半年，我們將在歐洲主要市場推出產品。所以這是一個長期的遊戲。這是我們的指導。這並不是真的——它不會成為營收的物質驅動因素。但五年後，它將成為一個比現在更大的國際品牌。這確實是計劃。我們從加拿大的發射中了解到。我們將這些經驗應用於墨西哥——巴西，然後是墨西哥。我們為今年下半年的歐洲制定了一個很棒的計畫。

And so it's a long-term play. Then you look at the rest of our portfolio, Rice Krispies Treats is already a multi-country brand, growing nicely in Europe, growing nicely in Australia and New Zealand. You look at Pop-Tarts, there's potentially room for that to be an international brand down the road. So we look at our portfolio, we like what we see in terms of international expansion, but we're going to do it in a very prudent and pragmatic and practical way to drive long-term growth.

所以這是一個長期的遊戲。然後你看看我們的其他產品組合，Rice Krispies Treats 已經是一個跨國品牌，在歐洲、澳洲和紐西蘭都有良好的發展。你看看 Pop-Tarts，它有可能成為一個國際品牌。因此，我們審視我們的投資組合，我們喜歡國際擴張方面的情況，但我們將以非常謹慎、務實和實際的方式來推動長期成長。

All right, super. And then maybe just a very simple quick follow-up. I heard you say you expect gross margin to improve for the year. Could you just maybe provide us with kind of how you're viewing your the cost side of the equation and this COGS inputs, is that deflationary? And then kind of given some of the commentary around maybe more positive volumes in the back half should we be expecting also maybe a little bit better gross margin back half year-over-year relative to the first half year-over-year?

好吧，超級。然後也許只是一個非常簡單的快速跟進。我聽說您預計今年的毛利率會有所改善。您能否向我們提供您如何看待等式的成本面以及銷貨成本投入，這是否屬於通貨緊縮？然後，考慮到下半年銷售可能會更加積極的一些評論，我們是否應該預期下半年的毛利率可能會比上半年同比有所提高？

Yes. Gross margins have come in better than expected. And so I think the supply chain is performing well. We're seeing costs come out of the supply chain that had gone in, in the last couple of years in quarter 4, first quarter of Kellanova, our gross margin came in at 34%. And we'd expect that in 2024, we'd be approaching 35%. So that's kind of the outlook for the year. So pleased with the progress that we are making. And certainly the progress that we're making on gross margins is ahead of what we had shared at Day@K. That's allowed us to continue to be on our guidance on an operating profit basis.

是的。毛利率優於預期。所以我認為供應鍊錶現良好。我們看到成本來自供應鏈，在過去幾年的第四季度，Kellanova 第一季度，我們的毛利率為 34%。我們預計到 2024 年，這一比例將接近 35%。這就是今年的展望。對我們所取得的進展感到非常高興。當然，我們在毛利率方面取得的進展領先於我們在 Day@K 分享的內容。這使我們能夠繼續遵循營業利潤指引。

I think in terms of the drivers, you'll obviously have the benefit of wraparound pricing and some continued revenue growth management into this year. The input costs, I would say, deflationary on commodities, a couple of commodities continue to be inflationary, net-net, slightly deflationary. You look at labor and other parts of our supply chain, where there is inflation overall, I'd say, costs are broadly neutral.

我認為就驅動因素而言，您顯然會受益於今年的環繞定價和一些持續的收入成長管理。我想說的是，商品的投入成本是通貨緊縮的，有些商品仍然是通貨膨脹的，淨淨的，輕微通貨緊縮的。你看看我們供應鏈的勞動力和其他部分，總體上有通貨膨脹，我想說，成本大致是中性的。

So that combination should drive continued progress on gross margin. And I think it will be fairly balanced across the quarters. We'd expect our A&P to be more front loaded as we get back to full innovation, but the gross margin progress should be fairly balanced across the quarters.

因此，這種組合應該會推動毛利率持續進步。我認為各季度的情況將相當平衡。我們預計，當我們恢復全面創新時，我們的 A&P 會更加提前，但各季度的毛利率進展應該相當平衡。

Our next question comes from Max Gumport of PNB Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自 PNB Paribas 的 Max Gumport。

With regard to the comment about all regions being within their long-term algo in 2024. Was that just on operating profit? Or does that apply to organic net sales, too?

關於所有地區都在 2024 年長期演算法之內的評論。這只是營業利潤嗎？或者這也適用於有機淨銷售額嗎？

I think to organic net sales as well.

我認為有機淨銷售額也是如此。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, so for North America, that would be low single digits to mid-single digits. Can you just walk through the drivers of what's getting North America to organic sales growth in '24, particularly given the decline we just saw in 4Q and the weakness that was addressed in the standard trends that we're seeing?

好的。作為後續行動，對於北美來說，這將是低個位數到中個位數。您能否簡單介紹一下北美在 24 年實現有機銷售成長的驅動因素，特別是考慮到我們剛剛在第四季度看到的下降以及我們所看到的標準趨勢中解決的弱點？

Yes. North America. I'll just start. North America will probably be towards the low end of that range, so probably more low single digit. But as Steve elaborated, it's return to merchandising, innovation, all of that should result in low single-digit growth in North America.

是的。北美。我就開始吧。北美可能會接近該範圍的低端，因此可能會更低個位數。但正如史蒂夫所闡述的那樣，它回歸到商品銷售和創新，所有這些都應該導致北美地區低個位數成長。

Got it. And then last one for me. The shipment timing in AMEA that you called out. Should we expect that to reverse at all in 1Q? And can you just go over what happened there exactly in terms of the African shipment benefit?

知道了。然後是我的最後一張。您呼叫的 AMEA 出貨時間。我們是否應該預期這種情況會在第一季發生逆轉？您能簡單回顧一下非洲運輸效益方面到底發生了什麼事嗎？

Yes. So a couple of things driving the strong volume growth in AMEA, and it was all in Africa JVs. One is we are expanding our noodles business across the continent in South Africa as well as in Egypt. So we're seeing strong volume growth. And that expansion is seeing good traction in terms of share and leading share positions in South Africa as well as in Egypt. So that's a source of volume growth, and that will continue in 2024.

是的。因此，有幾件事推動了 AMEA 銷量的強勁成長，而這一切都來自非洲合資企業。一是我們正在將麵條業務擴展到整個非洲大陸的南非和埃及。因此，我們看到銷量的強勁成長。這種擴張在南非和埃及的市場份額和領先地位方面都取得了良好的進展。因此，這是銷售成長的一個來源，並且這種情況將持續到 2024 年。

I think in Nigeria specifically, we've had to take a lot of pricing given what's happened with the currency. And the elasticities have been pretty good and better than expected. There has been some ordering by our customers at older prices. So we were seeing acceleration of the orders to take benefit of the old pricing. And in an environment where you're taking successive price increases, you kind of see that timing of shipments play through. Hard to kind of predict when that would unwind because as you know, the currency is devalued further in January, and we'd be taking further pricing. But we'd expect that to adjust during the course of 2024.

我認為，特別是在尼日利亞，鑑於貨幣發生的情況，我們不得不採取大量定價。而且彈性非常好，比預期的要好。我們的客戶以較舊的價格訂購了一些產品。因此，我們看到訂單加速成長，以利用舊定價。在價格連續上漲的環境中，您會看到出貨時間的影響。很難預測這種情況何時會解除，因為如您所知，貨幣在一月進一步貶值，我們將進一步定價。但我們預計這種情況會在 2024 年期間進行調整。

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

Just wanted to start on margins. On Slide 19, you show the progression to the 15%. But -- the starting point for 2023, you have at 12%. That similar slide at Investor Day, was at 13%, I guess just first it was -- is that just strained the costs from the recast because I think WK Kellogg's margins would have been lower. So is it strained costs that drive that? Or is there something else that pushed the starting point down? And then conversely with obviously you being just as confident or more in getting to the 15% and maybe sooner is the network optimization, the key piece of that? Or are there other puts and takes we should keep in mind as well?

只是想從邊緣開始。在投影片 19 上，您顯示了 15% 的進度。但是，2023 年的起點是 12%。投資者日的類似下滑為 13%，我想這只是重鑄帶來的成本壓力，因為我認為 WK Kellogg 的利潤率會更低。那麼，是成本緊張造成的嗎？還是有其他因素導致起點下降？然後相反，顯然你對達到 15% 有同樣的信心或更有信心，也許更快的是網絡優化，這是其中的關鍵部分？或者有其他我們應該牢記的看跌期權和看跌期權嗎？

Yes. So just on the 12% versus the 13% at Day@K, they are on a different basis. So the 12% that you see right now is on the discontinued operations basis, which is -- we've now done that work, and that's what we'll be reporting against. The 13%, which we had given at Day@K was an internal management estimate and really the difference is the 12% does not include reimbursement for the first 9 months, the TSA reimbursements for services that we're providing to WKKC. That's the way the discontinued operations accounting works.

是的。因此，僅就 Day@K 的 12% 與 13% 而言，他們的基礎是不同的。因此，您現在看到的 12% 是基於已停止營運的基礎上的，也就是說，我們現在已經完成了這項工作，這就是我們將要報告的內容。我們在 Day@K 給出的 13% 是內部管理估計，真正的差異是 12% 不包括前 9 個月的報銷，即 TSA 對我們向 WKKC 提供的服務的報銷。這就是終止經營會計的運作方式。

So that's really the difference between the 12% and the 13%. And I think, like I said, we expect in 2024 to be at 14% margin, so very pleased with that, obviously. And I think that's structurally higher than where we were as Kellogg's. And I think it's just a proof point of higher growth and higher profit portfolio that we have in Kellanova.

這就是 12% 和 13% 之間的差異。我認為，正如我所說，我們預計 2024 年的利潤率將達到 14%，顯然我們對此感到非常滿意。我認為這在結構上比我們家樂氏的水平要高。我認為這只是我們 Kellanova 擁有更高成長和更高利潤投資組合的證明。

And then I think to our confidence in getting to the 15% margin by 2026, yes, the network optimization projects are a contributing factor. And we'll continue to look at further opportunities but all the other drivers, advantage brands, our top 5 brands have higher margins. They are 50% of our sales. We'd expect them to grow faster, scale in emerging markets, getting back to a full productivity program in our supply chain, some continued revenue growth management. All of those would also be contributing factors to get to that 15%.

然後我認為，我們有信心在 2026 年達到 15% 的利潤率，是的，網路優化專案是一個促成因素。我們將繼續尋找更多機會，但所有其他驅動因素、優勢品牌、我們的前 5 個品牌都有更高的利潤率。它們占我們銷售額的 50%。我們預計他們會成長得更快，在新興市場擴大規模，在我們的供應鏈中恢復全面的生產力計劃，並進行一些持續的收入成長管理。所有這些也都是達到 15% 的因素。

Okay. Great. And you mentioned the transfer services agreement as a key piece of how to think about 2024, EBIT. Can you give us a sense of how much that's got a fixed component versus variable? Or just a little bit of how that might be structured?

好的。偉大的。您提到轉讓服務協議是如何思考 2024 年息稅前利潤的關鍵部分。您能否讓我們了解一下固定成分與可變成分的比例？或只是一點點它的結構？

Yes. So it's about $40 million to $50 million a quarter, right? So it will flow through all of 2024. I think as we stop providing those services to WKKC and as WKKC contracts for those services directly, those costs will drop off from Kellanova and the reimbursement will drop off as well. So the vast majority, as this thing kind of concludes, right, as we step down from the TSAs, we'd expect the cost to stop and the reimbursement to stop.

是的。所以每季大約是 4000 萬到 5000 萬美元，對吧？因此，它將貫穿整個 2024 年。我認為，隨著我們停止向 WKKC 提供這些服務，並且 WKKC 直接簽訂這些服務合同，Kellanova 的這些成本將會下降，報銷也將會下降。因此，絕大多數人，正如這件事的結論一樣，對，當我們退出 TSA 時，我們預計成本會停止，報銷也會停止。

I mean, I think a good example of that is warehousing. Right now, the warehousing, we are providing the warehousing. So we are incurring the costs and then WKKC is reimbursing that to us. Once the TSA is done, they'll have their own warehousing and they'll pay for the warehousing cost directly. So the cost will stop, the reimbursement will stop. Is it a 100% 1:1? No. But I think the vast majority of that is variable. There is a small fixed element. And I think we've got plans to address that, and that's included in the 15% by ['26] size or target.

我的意思是，我認為倉儲就是一個很好的例子。現在，倉儲，我們提供倉儲。因此，我們需要承擔費用，然後 WKKC 會將這筆費用償還給我們。一旦 TSA 完成，他們將擁有自己的倉儲，他們將直接支付倉儲費用。因此，費用將停止，報銷將停止。是100%1:1嗎？不。但我認為其中絕大多數都是可變的。有一個小的固定元件。我認為我們已經制定了解決這個問題的計劃，並且這已包含在 ['26] 的 15% 規模或目標中。

That's really helpful color. I just wanted to make sure I understand it. When you were talking about the $1,850 to $1,900 EBIT guide and the comparisons that would fall in that, it sounds like some of the TSA drove, I think you said around mid-teens growth rate, where without that, it'd be about mid-single digit. So is that 40 to 50, is there margin on that? Or how does it contribute to EBIT if it's just a reimbursement?

這真是有用的顏色。我只是想確保我理解它。當您談論1,850 美元至1,900 美元的息稅前利潤指南以及其中的比較時，聽起來像是TSA 的一些驅動力，我想您說的是大約十幾歲的增長率，如果沒有這個，增長率大約是中間-個位數。那麼是40到50，有餘裕嗎？或者如果它只是報銷，它對息稅前利潤有何貢獻？

No, I think it's just timing because the growth rate -- so when you look at 2024, right, we are getting reimbursement for all 4 quarters. In 2023, we got reimbursement only in quarter 4 because that was when the spin happened. So the reason why it's in the teens growth rate is in '24, you've got 4 quarters in '23, you've got 1 quarter. So it's purely because of the way the timing of the spin and the difference coming from there.

不，我認為這只是時機，因為成長率 - 所以當你看看 2024 年時，對吧，我們將獲得所有 4 個季度的報銷。 2023 年，我們僅在第 4 季獲得報銷，因為那是旋轉發生的時間。所以，之所以是青少年成長率，是因為在 24 年，你在 23 年有 4 個季度，有 1 個季度。所以這純粹是因為旋轉的時機和來自那裡的差異。

And then a portion of the comparison in the recast numbers not have it. Okay. That's perfect.

然後重鑄號碼中的一部分對比就沒有了。好的。那很完美。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

I just wanted to make sure 100% because I'm still getting some questions about this. And you mentioned, Amit, that the operating profit number, the 1 -- the $1,850 to $1,900 does include the headwind of 2% from FX. In the press release, it does say though that these impacts and you're talking about mark-to-market adjustments and foreign currency translation are not included in the guidance provided. Am I just misinterpreting one of those? Or they seem to be in conflict of each other, but I'm sure I'm just missing something?

我只是想 100% 確定，因為我仍然收到一些關於此的問題。阿米特，你提到營業利潤數字 1——1,850 美元至 1,900 美元確實包括來自外匯的 2% 的阻力。在新聞稿中，它確實指出，這些影響以及您所談論的按市價調整和外幣換算並未包含在所提供的指導中。我只是誤解了其中一個嗎？或者它們似乎彼此衝突，但我確定我只是錯過了一些東西？

Yes, Ken, sorry, it's just that our guidance is typically on growth rates, which are currency neutral. So the table just has that always, but we've elected to go with absolute dollars just to help you model, so ignore the labeling. There is a little bit of that currency impact that Amit talked about in those absolute figures.

是的，肯，抱歉，只是我們的指導通常是關於成長率，這是貨幣中性的。因此，該表始終包含此內容，但我們選擇使用絕對美元只是為了幫助您建模，因此請忽略標籤。阿米特在這些絕對數字中談到了一點貨幣影響。

Perfect. And then not to harp too much on the reimbursements, but -- is it -- and I know you're not going to talk explicitly about 2025 yet, but it would seem that if you're getting a, I don't know, roughly $140 million benefit in 2024, that some of that kind of goes away because you didn't have -- and again, it's not exactly maybe that much, because it could depend on the timing of everything. But is it fair to say you'll have some kind of headwind in '25 as those roll off. Again, with the caveat that it's too early to really discuss specifics.

完美的。然後不要過多地談論報銷，但是——是嗎——我知道你還不會明確談論 2025 年，但如果你得到一個，我不知道，到2024 年大約1.4 億美元的福利，其中一些會消失，因為你沒有- 再說一次，它可能並不完全是那麼多，因為它可能取決於一切的時間安排。但可以公平地說，隨著這些項目的推出，你將在 25 年遇到一些逆風嗎？再次強調，現在真正討論具體細節還為時過早。

Yes. I think there are costs which we are getting reimbursed. So I wouldn't characterize it as a benefit. We're incurring the cost on behalf of WKKC as part of the services we are providing them, and they are reimbursing us for those expenses that we are incurring. We would expect those expenses to drop off. And there's no markup on the service, so we would expect those expenses to drop off and then the reimbursement to drop off. Now is it a one-to-one? Not completely. But I'd say the vast majority of those and I think like I mentioned in the warehouse example, that warehouse right now, we are paying for it, and we get reimbursement. Once they drop off, they'll pay for it directly.

是的。我認為我們正在償還一些費用。所以我不會將其描述為好處。我們代表 WKKC 承擔這些費用，作為我們向他們提供的服務的一部分，並且他們向我們補償我們所承擔的這些費用。我們預計這些費用將會下降。而且該服務沒有加價，因此我們預計這些費用會下降，然後報銷也會下降。現在是一對一嗎？不完全的。但我想說的是，其中絕大多數，我認為就像我在倉庫示例中提到的那樣，現在那個倉庫，我們正在支付費用，並且我們得到了報銷。一旦他們下車，他們就會直接付款。

No, I get that. I think -- and I'll ask this off-line. I think I'm more asking about the growth percentage. I'll ask it offline. I know it's kind of clarification.

不，我明白了。我想——我會離線詢問這個問題。我想我更多的是問成長百分比。我會離線詢問。我知道這是一種澄清。

The growth percentage is related to the timing.

增長百分比與時間有關。

Yes. No I get it. I'll ask later. It's not worth holding it up the call for it.

是的。不，我明白了。我稍後再問。不值得推遲它的呼籲。

I will now pass back to John Renwick for any concluding remarks.

現在我將請約翰·倫威克（John Renwick）發表結論性意見。

Okay. Well, that is up to 10:30. If you do have follow-up questions, please do not hesitate to call us. And thank you, everyone, for your interest.

好的。嗯，截止時間是 10 點 30 分。如果您確實有後續問題，請隨時致電我們。謝謝大家的關注。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路。