家樂氏 (K) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Kellanova's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the call over to John Renwick, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning for Kellanova. Mr. Renwick, you may begin your conference call.

早安.歡迎參加 Kellanova 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）此時，我想將電話轉給 Kellanova 投資人關係和企業規劃副總裁 John Renwick。 Renwick 先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for a review of our first quarter results as well as an update on our outlook for 2024. I'm joined this morning by Steve Cahillane, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Amit Banati, our Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安，感謝您今天早上與我們一起回顧我們第一季的業績以及我們對 2024 年展望的最新情況。以及我們的副主席兼財務長阿米特·巴納蒂 (Amit Banati)。

Slide #3 shows our forward-looking statements disclaimer. As you are aware, certain statements made today such as projections for Kellanova's future performance are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the third slide of this presentation as well as to our public SEC filings. A recording of today's webcast and supporting documents will be archived for at least 90 days on the investor page of www.kellanova.com.

投影片 #3 顯示了我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。如您所知，今天所做的某些陳述（例如對 Kellanova 未來業績的預測）屬於前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預測有重大差異。有關可能導致這些結果不同的因素的更多信息，請參閱本簡報的第三張幻燈片以及我們向 SEC 公開的文件。今天網路廣播的錄音和支援文件將在 www.kellanova.com 的投資者頁面上存檔至少 90 天。

As always, when referring to our results and outlook, unless otherwise noted, we will be referring to them on an organic basis for net sales and on a currency-neutral adjusted basis for operating profit and earnings per share. Also, remember that our 2023 results have been recast to treat the spun-off WK Kellogg Co. as a discontinued operation in accordance with applicable accounting guidelines. Those recast statements can be found in our Q4 2023 earnings press release from February 8 of this year.

像往常一樣，在提及我們的業績和前景時，除非另有說明，否則我們將在淨銷售額的有機基礎上以及在貨幣中性調整後的營業利潤和每股收益的基礎上提及它們。請同時記住，我們的 2023 年業績已根據適用的會計準則進行了重新調整，將分拆後的 WK Kellogg Co. 視為已終止經營業務。這些改寫的聲明可以在我們今年 2 月 8 日發布的 2023 年第四季財報新聞稿中找到。

And now I'll turn it over to Steve.

現在我將把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Two quarters ago, we became Kellanova, with a more focused and growth-oriented portfolio, a refreshed strategy, more ambitious financial targets and the continued commitment to deliver long-term value for our share-owners. I'm proud to say that we have continued to deliver solid results even amidst challenging macro and industry conditions. Our first quarter was a very strong start to 2024 with better sales growth, profit margins and cash flow than we had projected, and it was another quarter of on-algorithm performance year-on-year; in fact, at the upper end of our algorithm ranges.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。兩個季度前，我們更名為 Kellanova，擁有更專注和以成長為導向的投資組合、更新的策略、更雄心勃勃的財務目標以及為股東創造長期價值的持續承諾。我很自豪地說，即使在充滿挑戰的宏觀和行業條件下，我們仍繼續取得紮實的成果。我們的第一季是 2024 年的一個非常強勁的開局，銷售成長、利潤率和現金流都比我們預期的要好，而且這是演算法表現同比的另一個季度；事實上，處於我們演算法範圍的上限。

We are encouraged by the early signs of headway we are making in the marketplace, including here in the United States, and we continue to deliver strong organic growth in emerging markets. Put it all together, and you can see why we are able to reaffirm our 2024 guidance today and with an increased level of confidence. But before we dive into the details of our financials and regional performance, let me remind you of a few important drivers of this performance.

我們對包括美國在內的市場取得的早期進展跡象感到鼓舞，我們將繼續在新興市場實現強勁的有機成長。將所有這些放在一起，您就會明白為什麼我們今天能夠重申我們的 2024 年指導方針，並且信心增強。但在我們深入了解我們的財務和區域業績的細節之前，讓我提醒您這項業績的幾個重要驅動因素。

First is our strategy: differentiate, drive and deliver, shown on Slide #6. Each and every element of this strategy is being addressed and executed, both to deliver our near-term commitments, but also to build for a strong future. The strategy clearly has us further differentiating ourselves as a company driving the actions that deliver share-owner value.

首先是我們的策略：差異化、驅動力和交付，如幻燈片 #6 所示。該戰略的每一個要素都在解決和執行，既是為了兌現我們的近期承諾，也是為了建立美好的未來。該策略顯然讓我們作為一家推動實現股東價值的公司進一步脫穎而出。

Then, of course, there is our global footprint. Another area of differentiation for Kellanova depicted on Slide #7. Our heavy international presence adds diversification and growth, both of which were once again on display in the latest quarter. And this footprint, with its growth orientation and diversification, will remain a key differentiator for years to come. All of this is driving differentiated results.

當然，還有我們的全球足跡。 Kellanova 的另一個差異化領域如投影片#7 所示。我們大量的國際業務增加了多元化和成長，這兩點在最近一個季度再次體現。這種足跡及其成長導向和多元化，在未來幾年仍將是關鍵的差異化因素。所有這些都正在推動差異化的結果。

Slide #8 shows how our organic net sales growth has remained above our peer group median. Recently, we have benefited in part from our ability to raise prices significantly in markets where the currency has devalued sharply of late, but it is differentiated growth, differentiated from our peers and differentiated from our past, and it does reflect the benefits of our sharpened strategy and our more growth-oriented portfolio. Our portfolio is not only more growth-oriented today, but it is also more profitable.

投影片 #8 顯示了我們的有機淨銷售額成長如何保持高於同業組中位數。最近一段時間，我們部分受益於我們能夠在最近貨幣大幅貶值的市場大幅提價，但這是差異化增長，區別於同行，區別於我們過去，也確實體現了我們銳化的好處。更加以成長為導向的投資組合。如今，我們的投資組合不僅更加重視成長，而且利潤也更高。

Slide #9 shows how our post-spin companies' margins are higher than we were as Kellogg Company even before the pandemic. So as stated on Slide #10, we are again reaffirming our full year guidance, and we are doing so with increased confidence. This increased confidence comes from the over-delivery of our first quarter. It also stems from the fact that our return to full commercial activity is gaining traction, resulting in sequential improvement in key end market metrics.

幻燈片 #9 顯示了我們的分拆後公司的利潤率甚至比大流行之前的家樂氏公司還要高。因此，正如幻燈片 #10 所述，我們再次重申我們的全年指導，並且我們的信心增強了。這種信心的增強來自於我們第一季的超額交付。這也源自於這樣一個事實：我們恢復全面商業活動的動能正在增強，導致關鍵終端市場指標持續改善。

A good example is the U.S., where we saw consumption volume and sales improve their trends in March and into April. Meanwhile, category-level elasticities are starting to moderate, which further supports our expectations for stabilizing volumes. We continue to invest in our emerging markets businesses, an important source of our differentiated long-term growth and we are in the process of adding capacity for our biggest brand, Pringles, in these emerging markets.

美國就是一個很好的例子，我們看到三月和四月的消費量和銷售趨勢有所改善。同時，品類層面的彈性開始放緩，這進一步支持了我們對穩定銷售的預期。我們繼續投資新興市場業務，這是我們差異化長期成長的重要來源，我們正在為我們最大的品牌品客 (Pringles) 在這些新興市場增加產能。

We continue to restore and expand margins, progressing ahead of our plan in this area. And finally, we continue to enhance our financial flexibility through increased free cash flow and a deleveraged balance sheet. Meanwhile, we also continue to focus on growing the right way and Slide #11 provides just a few examples of our better days promise in action during the first quarter.

我們繼續恢復和擴大利潤率，在這一領域提前完成我們的計劃。最後，我們繼續透過增加自由現金流和去槓桿化資產負債表來增強我們的財務靈活性。同時，我們也繼續專注於以正確的方式成長，投影片 #11 提供了我們在第一季度採取行動的美好日子承諾的幾個例子。

As always, we had a heavy focus on addressing food insecurity worldwide. But we also know that doing the right thing is good for business. And during the first quarter, we again partnered with customers and leveraged our brands as we supported the communities we serve. We also continue to be recognized for our good work.

一如既往，我們高度重視解決全球糧食不安全問題。但我們也知道，做對的事對企業有利。在第一季度，我們再次與客戶合作，並利用我們的品牌來支持我們所服務的社區。我們的出色工作也繼續獲得認可。

So now let me turn it over to Amit, who will walk you through our financials before I come back and discuss each of our businesses in more detail.

現在讓我把它交給阿米特，他將帶您了解我們的財務狀況，然後我回來更詳細地討論我們的每項業務。

Thank you, Steve, and hello, everyone. Slide #13 summarizes our key financial results for quarter 1. As Steve said, we are pleased to report another quarter of on-algorithm results and the fact that these results exceeded our expectations gives us even more confidence in our full year outlook. Our organic growth in net sales was towards the top end of our long-term target range, with much of this organic growth attributable to pricing to offset currency devaluation. But even outside of that, our sales and volume came in a little better than planned.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家好。投影片 #13 總結了我們第一季的主要財務表現。我們淨銷售額的有機成長接近長期目標範圍的上限，其中有機成長很大程度上歸因於抵消貨幣貶值的定價。但即使除此之外，我們的銷售額和銷量也比計劃好一些。

On a currency-neutral basis, our adjusted operating profit grew strongly year-on-year. If you normalize the year ago recast base, to also include the pass-through of transition services expenses, this year-on-year growth would still be in the double digits on a currency-neutral basis, and it was driven by a restoration of gross profit margin that more than covered increased brand-building investment. Our below-the-line items, more or less offset each other, resulting in growth in earnings per share that was similar to the operating profit and a very good start to the year. Meanwhile, free cash flow is also off to a good start.

在貨幣中性的基礎上，我們調整後的營業利潤較去年同期強勁成長。如果將去年重算的基數正常化，也包括過渡服務費用的轉嫁，那麼在貨幣中性的基礎上，同比增長仍將是兩位數，這是由經濟復甦推動的。品牌建立投入的毛利率。我們的線下專案或多或少相互抵消，導致每股盈餘的成長與營業利潤相似，並為今年帶來了良好的開端。同時，自由現金流也有了良好的開端。

Slide #14 walks you through the major components of our year-on-year net sales growth. As you can see, our 5% organic growth was primarily driven by price mix, which itself was led by revenue growth management actions taken over the past 12 months to cover what had been rising input cost inflation as well as pricing actions taken more recently in Nigeria to cover currency devaluation.

第 14 張投影片將帶您了解我們年比淨銷售額成長的主要組成部分。正如您所看到的，我們 5% 的有機增長主要是由價格組合推動的，價格組合本身是由過去 12 個月為應對不斷上升的投入成本通脹而採取的收入增長管理行動以及最近在尼日利亞彌補貨幣貶值。

As expected, our overall price/mix growth decelerated sequentially again in quarter 1, and it should continue to do so as the year goes on. Volume declined on elasticity impacts around the world. Sequentially, from quarter 4, our overall volume decline was affected by Nigeria experiencing less accelerated orders than last quarter. However, in most of our other regions, we're encouraged by the pace of what we have always planned to be a gradual stabilization and recovery.

正如預期的那樣，我們的整體價格/組合成長在第一季再次連續減速，並且隨著時間的推移，這種情況應該會繼續下去。由於全球範圍內的彈性影響，成交量有所下降。隨後，從第四季開始，我們的整體銷售下降是受到尼日利亞加速訂單數量少於上季的影響。然而，在我們大多數其他地區，我們一直在計劃的逐步穩定和復甦的步伐令我們感到鼓舞。

Moving along the graphs, the small impact from last year's divestiture of our Russia business will continue for one more quarter as the transaction anniversaries at the start of quarter 3. Foreign currency translation clipped net sales growth by a larger-than-expected 9 percentage points in quarter 1, principally reflecting the Nigerian Naira. If exchange rates experienced during quarter 1 were to hold the full year's currency impact, would be around negative 7%.

從圖表上看，去年剝離俄羅斯業務帶來的小影響將持續一個季度，因為第三季度初是交易週年紀念日。奈拉。如果第一季的匯率能夠承受全年的貨幣影響，則匯率將在負 7% 左右。

Now let's look at gross profit on Slide #15. As we've discussed previously, the discontinued operations accounting used to recast 2022 and the first 3 quarters of 2023 takes into account only the expenses associated with our transition services agreement and not the pass-through of those expenses to WK Kellogg Co. Year-on-year, this contributed about 110 basis points of our margin expansion during quarter 1.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片#15 上的毛利。正如我們之前討論的，用於重鑄 2022 年和 2023 年前 3 季度的停產業務會計僅考慮與我們的過渡服務協議相關的費用，而不考慮這些費用轉嫁給 WK Kellogg Co.與去年同期相比，這為我們第一季的利潤率擴張貢獻了約110 個基點。

Currency devaluations affected our country mix, contributing a year-on-year margin benefit in quarter 1 of approximately 170 basis points. But as you can see, even without these recast and country mix impacts, we continued a multi-quarter trend of increased gross profit dollars and improvement in our gross profit margin. Driving this margin recovery have been a number of factors, including the improved supply environment, a resumed higher level of productivity and last year's revenue growth management actions against moderating input cost inflation. The fact that this gross margin restoration has continued to run ahead of pace gives us additional confidence in our full year outlook of more than 35%.

貨幣貶值影響了我們的國家結構，第一季的利潤率年增約 170 個基點。但正如您所看到的，即使沒有這些調整和國家組合的影響，我們仍繼續保持毛利成長和毛利率改善的多季度趨勢。推動利潤率回升的因素有很多，包括供應環境的改善、生產力水準的恢復以及去年針對投入成本通膨放緩而採取的收入成長管理行動。毛利率恢復繼續領先的事實讓我們對全年超過 35% 的前景更有信心。

The same holds true for operating profit shown on Slide #16. This was driven by our top line growth and recovering gross profit margin, which were enough to fund advertising and consumer promotion that increased faster than net sales. The absence of TSA reimbursement from the year ago recast base was a year-on-year impact of roughly $45 million at the operating profit line, which explains a little less than 150 basis points of the margin expansion and the currency-related mix shift had the effect of adding less than 100 basis points of the margin expansion.

投影片 #16 所示的營業利潤也是如此。這是由我們的營收成長和毛利率恢復所推動的，足以為廣告和消費者促銷提供資金，而這些廣告和消費者促銷的成長速度快於淨銷售額。去年重訂基礎上沒有 TSA 報銷對營業利潤線產生了約 4500 萬美元的同比影響，這解釋了利潤率擴張略低於 150 個基點以及與貨幣相關的組合變化添加少於100個基點的利潤擴張的效果。

Even if we exclude these 2 factors, we still continue to grow operating profit in dollars and in margin and quite substantially. Like our gross profit, this operating profit performance was better than expected, another promising sign for the full year. This strong quarter 1 margin performance lends confidence to our outlook for an operating profit margin of over 14% for the full year.

即使我們排除這兩個因素，我們的營業利潤（以美元計算）和利潤率仍然繼續大幅成長。就像我們的毛利一樣，營業利潤表現也好於預期，這是全年的另一個有希望的跡象。第一季強勁的利潤率表現讓我們對全年營業利潤率超過 14% 的前景充滿信心。

Moving down the P&L, we come to our earnings per share walk on Slide #17. As you can see, all of our EPS growth in quarter 1 was attributable to our growth in operating profit as below the line items offset each other. Interest expense increased meaningfully year-on-year, reflecting higher interest rates. This was offset by a similar increase in other income, reflecting currency translation gains.

沿著損益表向下看，我們看到幻燈片#17 上的每股盈餘。正如您所看到的，我們第一季的所有每股盈餘成長都歸因於我們營業利潤的成長，因為以下各項相互抵銷。利息支出較去年同期顯著增加，反映出利率上升。這被其他收入的類似成長所抵消，反映了貨幣換算收益。

As expected, our effective tax rate came in at about 22.6%, and joint venture earnings and minority interests were collectively about a $0.01 drag on EPS. Our average shares outstanding decreased modestly year-on-year, reflecting share buybacks that we accelerated into the previous quarter.

正如預期的那樣，我們的有效稅率約為 22.6%，合資企業收益和少數股東權益合計對 EPS 造成約 0.01 美元的拖累。我們的平均已發行股票年比小幅下降，反映出我們在上個季度加速了股票回購。

Let's turn to Slide #18 and look at our free cash flow and net debt. We're off to a good start on free cash flow, even in what is normally a small quarter for this metric, though some of this is timing related, specifically the timing of a planned distribution from a post-retirement fund, which is expected to be offset later in the year.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 #18，看看我們的自由現金流和淨債務。我們在自由現金流方面有了一個良好的開端，即使對於這個指標來說通常是一個小季度，儘管其中一些與時間相關，特別是退休後基金計劃分配的時間，這是預期的將於今年晚些時候抵消。

Meantime, we've continued to pay down debt even as we return sizable cash to share-owners, mostly through our dividend. Our debt leverage remains well below our targeted ratio of net debt to trailing EBITDA of 3x.

同時，我們繼續償還債務，同時我們向股東返還大量現金（主要是透過股息）。我們的負債槓桿率仍遠低於淨負債與往績 EBITDA 3 倍的目標比率。

On Slide #19, you can see that we are making no changes to our 2024 financial guidance. For net sales, we continue to expect organic growth within our long-term targeted range, specifically calling for 3% growth or better in 2024. Outside of Nigeria, we still assume that price mix growth will moderate as we continue to lap prior year actions, that industry-wide elasticities will fade gradually during the year and that our return to full commercial activity will result in volume stabilization and improvement as the year progresses.

在投影片 #19 上，您可以看到我們沒有對 2024 年財務指引進行任何更改。對於淨銷售額，我們繼續預期在長期目標範圍內實現有機成長，特別呼籲2024 年實現3% 或更高的成長。組合成長將放緩，整個行業的彈性將在這一年中逐漸減弱，隨著時間的推移，我們恢復全面商業活動將導致銷量穩定和改善。

The exception is Nigeria, where currency influence pricing actions have continued and where we assume we will start to see meaningful elasticity impact on volume. Organic growth, of course, excludes currency translation which based on exchange rates we saw during quarter 1, would be a headwind of about 7% for the full year.

尼日利亞是個例外，該國貨幣影響定價行為仍在繼續，我們假設我們將開始看到彈性對交易量產生有意義的影響。當然，有機成長不包括貨幣換算，根據我們在第一季看到的匯率，全年的成長將是約 7% 的阻力。

For adjusted basis operating profit, we again reaffirmed the range of $1.85 billion to $1.9 billion. This incorporates a worsened negative impact from currency translation, which based on exchange rates experienced during quarter 1 would be about negative 2% to 3% for the full year. This operating profit guidance still implies continued margin expansion as an improving gross profit margin more than offset a strong increase in brand investment.

對於調整後的基本營業利潤，我們再次重申 18.5 億美元至 19 億美元的範圍。這包括貨幣換算帶來的更嚴重的負面影響，根據第一季的匯率，全年的影響約為負 2% 至 3%。這項營業利潤指引仍然意味著利潤率的持續擴張，因為毛利率的提高足以抵消品牌投資的強勁成長。

In fact, we are taking advantage of our strong quarter 1 to increase our reinvestment in brands and capabilities. Adjusted basis, earnings per share is still expected to be in the range of $3.55 to $3.65. Interest expense for the year now should be around $315 million versus the $310 million we signaled last quarter and currency translation is running worse than previously expected. On the other hand, other income's favorable quarter 1 brings up the full year, even as remaining quarters are still expected to run at around $15 million per quarter.

事實上，我們正​​在利用第一季的強勁表現來增加對品牌和能力的再投資。調整後每股收益預計仍將在 3.55 美元至 3.65 美元之間。今年的利息支出目前應約為 3.15 億美元，而我們上季度暗示的為 3.1 億美元，而且貨幣換算的情況比之前預期的要差。另一方面，第一季其他收入的良好表現反映了全年的情況，儘管其餘季度預計仍將達到每季 1500 萬美元左右。

We also estimate that our effective tax rate will come in below the 23% we previously guided to something more like what we saw in quarter 1. And the collective impact of joint venture earnings and minority interest may continue to run at a similar rate as in quarter 1.

我們還估計，我們的有效稅率將低於我們先前指引的 23%，類似於我們在第一季看到的情況。

And we are reaffirming our outlook for free cash flow of approximately $1 billion with year-on-year growth driven by operating profit and despite capital expenditure temporarily elevated as a percentage of sales for expanded Pringles capacity in emerging markets as well as usual cash outlays related to our 2 network optimization projects.

我們重申我們的自由現金流前景約為 10 億美元，同比增長由營業利潤驅動，儘管資本支出佔新興市場擴大品客薯片產能的銷售額的百分比暫時上升，以及通常的現金支出我們的2 個網路優化項目。

Our strong start to the year across all of these metrics gives us increased confidence in this guidance while still allowing some room for potential risks such as further currency devaluations or disruptions in the Middle East as well as the opportunity to add some investment behind brands and capabilities.

我們今年在所有這些指標上的強勁開局使我們對這一指導方針更有信心，同時仍然為潛在風險留有一定的空間，例如貨幣進一步貶值或中東的混亂，以及在品牌和能力背後增加一些投資的機會。

So in summary, our financial position is solid. We kicked off 2024 with results in the first quarter that were ahead of plan. Our commercial activities are starting to be reflected in improving end market performance and our profit margins are recovering ahead of pace. Plus, we continue to address our future margins and return on invested capital, making progress on network optimization projects, all of which gives us increased confidence in the full year guidance we first provided last August and allows us to increase reinvestment.

總而言之，我們的財務狀況是穩健的。我們以超出計劃的第一季業績拉開了 2024 年的序幕。我們的商業活動開始反映在終端市場績效的改善上，我們的利潤率正在提前恢復。此外，我們繼續解決未來的利潤率和投資資本回報率問題，在網路優化項目上取得進展，所有這些都讓我們對去年八月首次提供的全年指導更有信心，並使我們能夠增加再投資。

Our cash flow and balance sheet are giving us enhanced financial flexibility, and we continue to return cash to share-owners, not only in the form of the opportunistic share buybacks we made late last year, but also the increase in our dividend that we announced just last week.

我們的現金流和資產負債表增強了我們的財務靈活性，我們繼續向股東返還現金，不僅以我們去年年底進行的機會性股票回購的形式，還以我們宣布的股息增加的形式就在上週。

And with that, let me now turn it back to Steve for a run-through of our businesses around the world.

說到這裡，現在讓我把它轉回給史蒂夫，讓他概述我們在世界各地的業務。

Thanks, Amit. We'll start with Kellanova North America and Slide #22. Our organic net sales were flat in the quarter against our toughest comparison of the year. As expected, price mix growth is moderating as we lap last year's revenue growth management actions and last year's relative lack of merchandising activity. Industry-wide elasticities continued to pressure volume in the quarter, but it is important to note that we again realized sequential moderation in these volume declines and we expect this to continue as our increased commercial activity combines with expected diminishing of elasticities in our categories.

謝謝，阿米特。我們將從 Kellanova North America 和幻燈片 #22 開始。與今年最艱難的比較相比，本季我們的有機淨銷售額持平。正如預期的那樣，隨著我們經歷了去年的收入成長管理行動和去年相對缺乏的銷售活動，價格組合成長正在放緩。全行業的彈性繼續對本季度的銷量構成壓力，但值得注意的是，我們再次意識到這些銷量下降的連續放緩，並且我們預計這種情況將持續下去，因為我們的商業活動增加，加上我們類別的彈性預期下降。

North America's operating profit increased substantially as margins continue to be restored. Half of this year-on-year profit growth can be explained by the year earlier recast figures, not incorporating the pass-through of transition service expenses. The other half of this growth was driven by productivity initiatives and year-on-year improvements in service levels and logistics. So in spite of soft category demand, North America again delivered financially.

隨著利潤率持續恢復，北美地區的營業利潤大幅增加。利潤年增的一半可以用去年同期的重述數據來解釋，不包括過渡服務費用的轉嫁。這一增長的另一半是由生產力舉措以及服務水平和物流的同比改善所推動的。因此，儘管品類需求疲軟，北美地區還是再次達成了財務目標。

Slide #23 shows how both our snacks and our frozen businesses lapped strong year-earlier growth through the first half before beginning to lap the category level rise in elasticities that became more pronounced in the second half last year. Hence, being flattish in quarter 1 was expected for both businesses. Encouragingly, our U.S. categories in market in quarter 1 showed moderating volume declines as elasticities began to moderate.

投影片 #23 顯示了我們的零食和冷凍業務如何在上半年實現了去年同期的強勁增長，然後開始實現去年下半年變得更加明顯的品類水平彈性增長。因此，預計這兩項業務第一季將持平。令人鼓舞的是，隨著彈性開始放緩，第一季美國市場的銷售下降幅度有所放緩。

Meanwhile, our ramped up commercial activity is starting to improve our share performance as we had planned. While we returned to merchandising in the second half last year, quality display activity requires lead time, and we are now starting to realize this quality activity with increasing retailer acceptance as we have refined our price points, pack sizes and merchandising periods and events.

同時，我們不斷增加的商業活動正開始按照我們的計劃改善我們的股價表現。雖然我們在去年下半年重新開始銷售，但高品質的展示活動需要提前期，隨著我們改進了價格點、包裝尺寸以及銷售週期和活動，我們現在開始實現這種高品質的活動，零售商的接受度不斷提高。

Slide #24 shows this improvement in two of our most important categories. In both crackers and salty snacks, you can see our upward trajectory in consumption sales and volume, particularly when compared to their respective categories. In salty snacks, Pringles picked up share in March and in crackers, our declines are narrowing rapidly, thanks to increasing merchandising for Cheez-It and share gains by Club and Toasted.

投影片 #24 顯示了我們兩個最重要類別的改進。在餅乾和鹹味零食中，您可以看到我們的消費銷售和數量呈上升趨勢，特別是與各自的類別相比。在鹹味零食領域，品客薯片 (Pringles) 的份額在 3 月份有所上升，而在餅乾領域，由於 Cheez-It 的銷售量增加以及 Club 和 Toasted 的份額增長，我們的跌幅正在迅速縮小。

The same is true in our other categories. We gained share in portable wholesome snacks in the first quarter led by Pop-Tarts. Eggo started to narrow its share losses in March on meaningful gains in distribution and MorningStar Farms continues to pick up share. So we are gaining traction, and we have more building blocks taking shape in the second quarter when we pick up distribution on shelf resets and innovation launches, all supported by increased brand investment and merchandising activity.

我們其他類別也是如此。第一季度，我們在便攜式健康零食領域的份額有所增加，其中以 Pop-Tarts 為首。由於分銷方面的顯著增長，Eggo 在 3 月開始收窄其份額損失，而晨星農場 (MorningStar Farms) 的份額繼續上升。因此，我們正在獲得牽引力，並且當我們在貨架重置和創新發布上進行分銷時，我們將在第二季度形成更多的構建模組，所有這些都得到了品牌投資和營銷活動增加的支持。

And that's on top of likely easing of elasticities as last year's SNAP and other government allotments anniversary. So we fully expect to sustain this improvement in consumption volume and share performance in the second quarter and through the second half.

除此之外，隨著去年的 SNAP 和其他政府撥款週年紀念日，彈性可能會放鬆。因此，我們完全期望第二季和下半年能夠維持消費量和股價表現的改善。

As indicated on Slide #25, there is no change in our expectations for North America only increased confidence. Our increased innovation is beginning to hit the shelves now and our brand building and merchandising have increased and are of higher quality. Best of all, we're already seeing this activity start to bear fruit in the marketplace. We expect our volume performance in this region will continue to improve as a result.

如投影片 #25 所示，我們對北美的預期沒有變化，只是信心增強了。我們不斷增加的創新現已開始上架，我們的品牌建立和銷售也有所增加，並且品質更高。最重要的是，我們已經看到這項活動開始在市場上取得成果。我們預計我們在該地區的銷售表現將繼續改善。

Meantime, our margins continue to recover ahead of pace, and we are seeing early evidence of the post spin-off benefits of a more focused and agile organization. And I'm just back from the Los Angeles Premier of Jerry Seinfeld's new Netflix movie Unfrosted, which I can tell you is absolutely hilarious. It's a farcical take on the launch of our beloved Pop-Tarts. Only the most iconic brands merit a star-studded movie, so be sure to watch its release tomorrow night on Netflix.

同時，我們的利潤率繼續超前恢復，我們看到了早期證據，表明更專注和敏捷的組織可以帶來分拆後的好處。我剛從傑瑞宋飛 (Jerry Seinfeld) 的新 Netflix 電影《無霜》(Unfrosted) 的洛杉磯首映回來，我可以告訴你，這部電影絕對是搞笑的。這是對我們心愛的果餡餅的推出的一場鬧劇。只有最具代表性的品牌才值得拍一部眾星雲集的電影，所以請務必觀看明晚在 Netflix 上上映的電影。

Now let's turn to Kellanova Europe and Slide #26. This region sustained good net sales growth growing organically by 3% in the first quarter even as it lapped prior year revenue growth management actions. Importantly, we realized a modest sequential improvement in volume performance. Even excluding favorable currency translation, Europe's adjusted basis operating profit grew by 4% year-on-year despite last year's midyear divestiture of Russia. Profit margins continue to recover nicely in this business, even with significant boost in brand building investment.

現在讓我們轉向 Kellanova Europe 和幻燈片 #26。儘管該地區的收入成長管理行動落後於去年，但第一季該地區仍保持了良好的淨銷售成長，有機成長 3%。重要的是，我們實現了卷性能的適度連續改進。即使排除有利的貨幣換算，儘管去年年中剝離了俄羅斯，歐洲調整後的基礎營業利潤仍同比增長了 4%。儘管品牌建立投資大幅增加，但該業務的利潤率仍持續良好恢復。

On Slide #27, you can see that Snacks, which represent over half of our sales in Kellanova Europe, continue to lead our growth in this region during the first quarter. Our Snacks' net sales grew organically by 4% as they lap double-digit growth and as we experienced trade inventory timing in certain markets as well as softened demand in Israel, which is the lone Middle East market serviced out of Kellanova Europe.

在投影片 #27 上，您可以看到零食占我們在 Kellanova Europe 銷售額的一半以上，在第一季繼續引領我們在該地區的成長。我們的零食淨銷售額有機成長了 4%，因為它們實現了兩位數的成長，而且我們經歷了某些市場的貿易庫存時機以及以色列需求的疲軟，以色列是 Kellanova 歐洲服務的唯一中東市場。

End market, we saw continued deceleration in retail sales growth for our primary categories on moderating price increases and sustained elasticities. The salty snacks category is growing at low to mid-single-digit growth rates in developed markets while sustaining mid-teens growth in emerging markets like Poland and Romania. Impressively, Pringles has gained share across most markets in the first quarter.

終端市場，由於價格上漲溫和且彈性持續，我們的主要品類零售成長持續放緩。鹹味零食類別在已開發市場以低至中個位數的成長率成長，而在波蘭和羅馬尼亞等新興市場則維持中十幾歲的成長。令人印象深刻的是，品客薯片第一季在大多數市場的份額都增加了。

In Cereal, we remained on a trend of 1% organic net sales growth. We gained share in the growing U.K. cereal market, but did see continued category slowing and shifts to private label in many markets in the region.

在穀物方面，我們保持了 1% 的有機淨銷售額成長趨勢。我們在不斷增長的英國穀物市場中獲得了份額，但確實看到該地區許多市場的品類持續放緩並轉向自有品牌。

Slide #28 reviews the elements to watch for in Europe in 2024. Pringles is poised to sustain momentum as we execute our biggest ever campaigns around football, launched a set of limited edition flavors and continue our paper can partnership with a major U.K. retailer. All while we prepare for the launch of Cheez-It starting in the U.K. in the third quarter.

第28 張幻燈片回顧了2024 年歐洲值得關注的因素。大型零售商合作。我們一直在為第三季在英國推出 Cheez-It 做準備。

In Cereal, we're excited about the launch of Kellogg's sponsored football camps across the U.K. affiliated with prestigious professional clubs. We're also enthusiastic about building momentum behind innovations like new Choco Corn flakes and Trésor Brownie. The result will be a seventh consecutive year of organic net sales growth for this region even as we progress on plans for an optimization of our cereal portfolio and pending consultation our manufacturing network.

在 Cereal 中，我們很高興在英國各地推出由家樂氏贊助的與著名職業俱樂部相關的足球訓練營。我們也熱衷於為新的巧克力玉米片和 Tresor Brownie 等創新創造動力。結果將是該地區連續第七年實現有機淨銷售額增長，儘管我們在優化穀物產品組合的計劃上取得了進展，並正在諮詢我們的製造網絡。

Now let's look at our emerging markets regions, starting with Latin America on Slide #29. In the first quarter, Latin America's net sales increased by 5% organically. Price/mix growth is moderating as expected as we lap prior year actions to offset high cost inflation. The good news is that volume declines continue to moderate even in spite of the impact of our SKU rationalization and price pack architecture initiatives. Operating profit declined in the first quarter against strong 20%-plus year-earlier growth.

現在讓我們看看我們的新興市場地區，從幻燈片#29 上的拉丁美洲開始。第一季度，拉丁美洲的淨銷售額有機成長了5%。由於我們採取了去年抵消高成本通膨的行動，價格/組合成長正如預期的那樣放緩。好消息是，儘管我們的 SKU 合理化和價格包架構計劃產生了影響，但銷售下降仍在繼續放緩。與去年同期 20% 以上的強勁成長相比，第一季營業利潤有所下降。

Slide #30 shows our Latin American net sales growth by category group. Organic net sales for our Snacks business dipped year-on-year due to elasticities in Central America and the lapping of a strong year ago quarter. However, end market data indicate that category growth rates for salty snacks generally remain strong, and both Pringles and Cheez-It outpaced the category with double-digit consumption growth in Mexico and Brazil.

投影片 #30 顯示了我們按類別組別劃分的拉丁美洲淨銷售額成長。由於中美洲的彈性以及去年同期的強勁表現，我們的零食業務的有機淨銷售額同比下降。然而，終端市場數據表明，鹹味零食的品類增長率總體保持強勁，品客薯片和 Cheez-It 在墨西哥和巴西均以兩位數的消費增長超過了該品類。

Our cereal net sales increased by a better-than-expected 10% in spite of lapping a similarly strong year ago performance. End market, the cereal category remains particularly robust in Mexico and Brazil, and we gained share in both of those markets. In fact, in Mexico, we recorded our highest share in the past decade through commercial activation of our core brands and expanded distribution.

儘管去年表現同樣強勁，但我們的穀物淨銷售額成長了 10%，優於預期。終端市場，穀物類別在墨西哥和巴西仍然特別強勁，我們在這兩個市場的份額都增加了。事實上，在墨西哥，透過核心品牌的商業活化和擴大分銷，我們創下了過去十年來的最高份額。

Slide #31 reminds you of what to watch for in our Latin America business this year. We expect a seventh straight year of organic net sales growth, with growth in both Snacks and Cereal. Pringles growth should be sustained by innovation and distribution expansion, and we also expect good growth in cereal. Margin should improve, reflecting price pack architecture and other RGM initiatives, operating efficiencies and the potential for moderating input cost pressures later this year.

投影片 #31 提醒您今年拉丁美洲業務的關注點。我們預計有機淨銷售額將連續第七年成長，零食和穀物食品均成長。品客洋芋片的成長應透過創新和分銷擴張來維持，我們也預期穀物食品將出現良好成長。利潤率應該會有所改善，反映出價格包架構和其他 RGM 措施、營運效率以及今年稍後緩解投入成本壓力的潛力。

And we'll finish with our EMEA region, starting with Slide #32. Currency influence price increases drove substantially all of the region's 19% organic net sales growth in the quarter, and this organic growth was more than offset by adverse currency translation. Nevertheless, our business in Nigeria continues to execute well through this challenging currency environment. It is priced to keep up with parallel market currency rates and has operated very effectively. Up to now, elasticities have remained manageable, though they are now on the rise given the significant pricing we have had to execute.

我們將從投影片 #32 開始介紹 EMEA 地區。貨幣影響價格上漲基本上推動了該地區本季 19% 的有機淨銷售額成長，而這種有機成長被不利的貨幣換算所抵消。儘管如此，我們在尼日利亞的業務在充滿挑戰的貨幣環境中繼續表現良好。它的定價與平行市場貨幣匯率保持一致，並且運作非常有效。到目前為止，彈性仍然是可控的，儘管考慮到我們必須執行的重大定價，彈性現在正在上升。

Stepping back, these short-term challenges are dramatically outweighed by the long-term growth opportunity that this growing market and our advantaged assets provide us. Outside of Nigeria and our joint ventures with Tolaram, our organic net sales declined slightly year-on-year as it lapped double-digit growth in the year ago quarter and as demand has been impacted by the heightened tensions in the Middle East.

退一步來說，這個不斷成長的市場和我們的優勢資產為我們提供的長期成長機會遠遠超過了這些短期挑戰。除了尼日利亞以及我們與 Tolaram 的合資企業之外，我們的有機淨銷售額同比略有下降，因為去年同期實現了兩位數增長，而且需求受到中東緊張局勢加劇的影響。

On a currency-neutral basis, EMEA's operating profit grew by 29%, though the extremely adverse currency translation brings this growth down to 2% in U.S. dollars. Excluding our joint ventures with Tolaram, EMEA's operating profit still grew in the double digits year-on-year, both with and without currency translation as margin recovery continues.

在貨幣中性的基礎上，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的營業利潤成長了 29%，儘管極其不利的貨幣換算導致這一增長以美元計算下降至 2%。不包括我們與 Tolaram 的合資企業，隨著利潤率持續恢復，無論是否進行貨幣換算，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的營業利潤仍以兩位數同比增長。

On Slide #33, the magnitude of the currency-driven pricing in Nigeria is reflected in the accelerated organic net sales growth for Noodles and other. Pricing has had to continue and while volume has held up well, some of this is related to timing of advanced orders in recent quarters that will likely negatively impact the second quarter and we also are prudently projecting elasticities to finally rise in this business.

在投影片 #33 中，奈及利亞貨幣驅動定價的幅度反映在麵條和其他產品的有機淨銷售額加速成長。定價必須持續，雖然銷售量保持良好，但部分原因與最近幾季的提前訂單時間有關，這可能會對第二季產生負面影響，我們也謹慎地預測該業務的彈性最終會上升。

Meanwhile, our Kellogg's noodles in South Africa and Egypt continue to grow rapidly, gaining distribution and share. In Snacks, we lapped a notably strong year earlier quarter, and Pringles is feeling the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Outside of that subregion, however, our snack sales remained in solid growth, led by Pringles. In Cereal, our organic net sales slipped by less than 1% despite lapping notably strong growth in the prior year ago quarter. Category elasticities persist, though we are encouraged by our sales in Australia.

同時，我們的家樂氏麵條在南非和埃及繼續快速成長，獲得了分銷和份額。在點心方面，我們去年同期的表現尤其強勁，品客洋芋片 (Pringles) 也感受到了中東衝突的影響。然而，在該次區域之外，我們的零食銷售在品客洋芋片 (Pringles) 的帶動下仍保持穩健成長。在穀物方面，儘管去年同期成長顯著強勁，但我們的有機淨銷售額下滑了不到 1%。儘管我們對澳洲的銷售感到鼓舞，但品類彈性依然存在。

So for EMEA in 2024, we continue to watch for the elements listed on Slide #34. This region looks to extend its enviable track record of consistently delivering organic growth. Noodles remains a growth business for us even as we contend with increased pricing and elasticities. We expect to sustain momentum in Snacks, led by Pringles, though the Middle East situation may slow its overall growth in the region and we expect to sustain growth in Cereal, led by emerging markets. And EMEA's restoration of profit margins should continue.

因此，對於 2024 年的歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們將繼續關注幻燈片 #34 中列出的要素。該地區希望延續其持續實現有機增長的令人羨慕的記錄。儘管我們面臨著價格和彈性增加的挑戰，但麵條對我們來說仍然是一項成長業務。儘管中東局勢可能會減緩該地區的整體成長，但我們預計以品客薯片為首的零食將保持成長勢頭，並且我們預計以新興市場為首的穀物食品將保持成長。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的利潤率將持續恢復。

So let me summarize with Slide #36. We're 2 quarters past the spin-off and already the benefits of a more focused, more growth-oriented and more profitable portfolio are on display. We again delivered continued on-algorithm financial performance that tracked ahead of expectations. Our stronger commercial plans are taking hold with improving end market performance that is leading to improving volume performance and this improvement will continue. We continue to progress ahead of schedule in the restoration of profit margins. All of this enables us to reaffirm our 2024 guidance with an increased level of confidence.

讓我用投影片#36 來總結一下。分拆已經過去兩個季度了，更專注、更注重成長、利潤更高的投資組合的好處已經顯現出來。我們再次實現了持續超出預期的演算法財務表現。我們更強大的商業計劃正在隨著終端市場表現的改善而落實，這將導致銷售表現的改善，並且這種改善將持續下去。我們在恢復利潤率方面繼續提前取得進展。所有這些使我們能夠以更大的信心重申我們的 2024 年指導方針。

Meanwhile, we continue to take value-creating actions for the future including, for example, adding much-needed emerging market capacity for Pringles, expanding Cheez-It internationally and optimizing our global manufacturing network. Simply put, we have the strategy, the portfolio, the footprint and the financial flexibility to deliver results consistently quarter after quarter and create long-term value for our share-owners.

同時，我們繼續為未來採取創造價值的行動，包括增加品客急需的新興市場產能、在國際上拓展 Cheez-It 以及優化我們的全球製造網絡。簡而言之，我們擁有策略、投資組合、業務範圍和財務靈活性，能夠每季持續交付成果，並為我們的股東創造長期價值。

And as always, the biggest reason for our confidence is the talent and energy of our Kellanova team who are working hard every day to deliver value for you, our share-owners. And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

像往常一樣，我們充滿信心的最大原因是我們 Kellanova 團隊的才華和活力，他們每天都在努力工作，為您（我們的股東）創造價值。因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question today is from the line of Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

Just in scanner data. I know it doesn't cover everything. But -- and clearly, you're able to perform quite well anyway lately. But just noticing that as we've seen for a little while now, private label continues to gain share in both crackers and potato chips, maybe at a little faster rate than they are in most food categories. So I'm just curious as we -- maybe you think about 2Q and 3Q with some of the, maybe elasticity fading trends, as you mentioned, maybe some lapping of last year's SNAP reduction.

就在掃描器資料中。我知道它並不能涵蓋所有內容。但是——很明顯，你最近無論如何都能表現得很好。但請注意，正如我們一段時間以來所看到的那樣，自有品牌在餅乾和薯片中的份額繼續增加，也許比在大多數食品類別中的速度要快一些。所以我只是很好奇，正如我們一樣，也許您會想到第二季和第三季的一些彈性衰退趨勢，正如您所提到的，也許是去年 SNAP 削減的一些趨勢。

So how do we think about you as a category and private label in the context of that and maybe some of the competitive trends within there?

那麼，在這種情況以及其中的一些競爭趨勢的背景下，我們如何看待您作為一個類別和自有品牌？

Yes. Ken, we don't really see the same thing that you're talking about in terms of private label. It's been a little bumpy, to be honest with you. And if you look back to, say, 2019 all the way through this year, there's no meaningful moves in private label in the categories that you mentioned. And if you look at PWS, portable wholesome snacks, there might be a little bit more movement there.

是的。肯，我們並沒有真正看到你在自有品牌方面談論的同一件事。老實說，這有點坎坷。如果你回顧 2019 年，直到今年，你提到的自有品牌類別中沒有任何有意義的舉措。如果你看看 PWS（便攜式健康零食），那裡可能會有更多的變化。

But I think it's really a story of not much to see there when you take all the noise out because you do have private label last year spring a little bit more due to supply disruptions, bottleneck shortages. So there's some of that's just coming back to where it was. I think equally, there is in the nonmeasured channels, as you said, growing faster. And so you can't always look at the syndicated data as a complete proxy for our own top line performance because of that growth and the growth in away-from-home channels as well, which has been very good.

但我認為，當你消除所有噪音時，這確實是一個沒什麼可看的故事，因為去年春天，由於供應中斷、瓶頸短缺，你確實有更多的自有品牌。所以其中一些只是回到了原來的位置。我同樣認為，正如您所說，在不可衡量的管道中，成長速度更快。因此，你不能總是將聯合數據視為我們自己營收業績的完整代理，因為這種成長以及離家通路的成長，這非常好。

So I think, not to be -- I hope you don't take that as a dismissive comment, but I think it's not as much to see as you might really think as you really analyze the fulsomeness of the data.

所以我認為，不是——我希望你不要將此視為輕蔑的評論，但我認為這並不像你真正想像的那樣多，因為你真正分析了數據的豐富性。

It's dismissive of Nielsen, not me. I'll take it that way. But I'm just curious if we can maybe broaden it out a little bit and thank you for that. Just as you think about lapping the SNAP reductions, what are your estimates? Maybe forgetting what we're seeing in private label, just thinking about it more broadly in terms of maybe the lower income or some of the consumers that are struggling a little bit. Do you expect maybe to see a little bit of improvement, just more on a macro basis as we lap some of last year's trends?

這是對尼爾森的蔑視，而不是對我的蔑視。我就這樣吧。但我只是好奇我們是否可以擴大一點範圍，謝謝你。正如您考慮實行 SNAP 削減一樣，您的估計是多少？也許忘記了我們在自有品牌中看到的東西，只是更廣泛地考慮可能較低的收入或一些陷入困境的消費者。當我們追隨去年的一些趨勢時，您是否期望看到一點點改善，只是在宏觀基礎上有所改善？

Yes, we do, Ken. And you hit it right on the head. The lower-income consumers, as you know and I have seen, are under a lot more pressure than the balance of the consumers, and that continues. We're probably, as we get into the back half of the year, going to be past the worst of that because of the SNAP benefits, because of the restoration of having to pay student loans, because of the improving economic environment overall from an employment standpoint and from a wage standpoint. I think we've seen the last of it. So we always forecast elasticities to be the most challenging in the first half of the year and to improve in the back half of the year.

是的，我們願意，肯。你正好擊中了我的頭。正如你所知道的和我所看到的，低收入消費者承受著比其他消費者更大的壓力，而且這種情況仍在繼續。進入今年下半年，我們可能會度過最糟糕的時期，因為 SNAP 福利、因為必須支付學生貸款的恢復、因為整體經濟環境的改善從就業的角度和工資的角度來看。我想我們已經看到最後了。因此，我們總是預測上半年彈性最具挑戰性，下半年彈性將會有所改善。

For us, we're actually seeing a better performance than that. So if you look at the syndicated data, again, I dismissed it on one hand, but not entirely. You can see that our performance is improving. We're getting back to full merchandising activity, which we had said. So we're moving from really -- telling everybody what we're going to do to showing what we're doing, and you actually see that in our improvement.

對於我們來說，我們實際上看到了比這更好的表現。因此，如果你再看看聯合數據，我一方面會否認這一點，但並非完全如此。你可以看到我們的表現正在提高。正如我們所說，我們正在恢復全面的行銷活動。因此，我們正在從真正告訴每個人我們要做什麼轉向展示我們正在做什麼，你實際上可以在我們的改進中看到這一點。

So we feel much more confident in our volume performance, I'm speaking about North America now, even into the second quarter. And certainly, that -- we see that continuing into the back half of the year. So overall category, I think, back half of the year improvement for us even sooner than that.

因此，我們對我們的銷量表現更有信心，我現在談論的是北美，甚至到第二季。當然，我們看到這種情況會持續到今年下半年。因此，我認為，整體類別的改善對我們來說甚至比這還要早。

Our next question today is from the line of Max Gumport of BNP Paribas.

今天我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Max Gumport。

First, just on the TSA impact. I think we've got the moving pieces now, but it sounds like maybe it was $45 million to $50 million benefit on EBIT and then maybe the $35 million of that was on the gross profit line? Do I have that right in terms of the size of the TSA with the reimbursement piece?

首先，談談 TSA 的影響。我認為我們現在已經有了一些進展，但聽起來可能是 4500 萬到 5000 萬美元的息稅前利潤，然後也許其中的 3500 萬美元是在毛利潤線上？對於包含報銷單的 TSA 的大小，我是否有權利這樣做？

Yes. I think you've got that right. I think the TSA reimbursement was around $45 million, and that split between gross profit and SG&A is about right.

是的。我認為你說得對。我認為 TSA 報銷金額約為 4500 萬美元，毛利和 SG&A 之間的分配基本上正確。

And then how should we...

那我們該怎麼...

I think nevertheless, even if you exclude that -- yes, I think even if you exclude that, we saw strong double-digit growth in our operating profit. You saw our gross margin -- even if you exclude the TSA as well as the ForEx impact, our gross margins were up 190 basis points in the quarter. I think from a go-forward standpoint, we'd expect TSAs to continue to be in that range, but starting to ratchet down in quarter 2.

儘管如此，我認為，即使你排除這一點——是的，我認為即使你排除這一點，我們的營業利潤也出現了強勁的兩位數增長。您看到了我們的毛利率 - 即使排除 TSA 和外匯的影響，我們的毛利率在本季度仍增長了 190 個基點。我認為從未來的角度來看，我們預計 TSA 將繼續保持在這個範圍內，但從第二季開始逐漸下降。

As I've mentioned previously, we are transitioning the distribution centers into WKKC. So that process is underway. It's going really well. Service levels are high as we are doing the transition. So as that transition happens through the course of 2024, you'll see some of the TSA costs move directly to WKKC. And so that will start ratcheting down through the year. And of course, in quarter 4, you'll anniversary that. So that's what's built into the guidance.

正如我之前提到的，我們正在將配送中心轉變為 WKKC。所以這個過程正在進行中。一切進展順利。在我們進行轉型期間，服務水準很高。因此，隨著這一轉變在 2024 年發生，您將看到 TSA 的部分成本直接轉移到 WKKC。因此，這一數字將在今年開始逐漸下降。當然，在第四季度，你將迎來週年紀念。這就是指南中的內容。

Great. Very helpful. And then, Steve, you just touched on this. Over the last several months, we've been hearing more and more commentary of consumer, particularly a lower income consumer that is feeling stressed and as a result, eating out less, and that's only become more clear through the last several days of restaurant earnings.

偉大的。很有幫助。然後，史蒂夫，你剛剛談到了這一點。在過去的幾個月裡，我們聽到越來越多的消費者評論，尤其是低收入消費者，他們感到壓力很大，因此外出就餐的次數減少了，而通過最近幾天的餐廳收入，這一點變得更加清晰。

I think what's not as clear is whether or not we're seeing this result in the shift to food at home. I'm just curious what you're seeing on this front and where you think the volume could be going?

我認為尚不清楚的是我們是否會看到這種結果導致人們轉向在家吃食物。我只是好奇你在這方面看到了什麼以及你認為銷量會走向何方？

Yes. I think you're clearly seeing value-seeking behavior. And discretionary income, the consumers under the most pressure from a discretionary income standpoint are eating out less. I think that's clear and they are returning to the at-home channels, but they're still seeking value even among that. So you see growth in different channels that better cater or really focus against the value-seeking consumer.

是的。我認為你清楚地看到了追求價值的行為。而可自由支配收入，從可自由支配收入的角度來看，承受最大壓力的消費者外出用餐的次數減少了。我認為這一點很明顯，他們正在回歸家庭管道，但即使如此，他們仍在尋求價值。因此，您會看到不同管道的成長，更好地迎合或真正​​專注於追求價值的消費者。

You continue to see lower packs seeking price points. And so we're trying more and more not to vacate those very attractive price points. But yes, that's exactly what we're seeing. And as I said in the earlier comment, I think in the back half of the year, that pressure will start to abate.

您將繼續看到較低的包裝尋求價格點。因此，我們越來越多地嘗試不放棄那些非常有吸引力的價格點。但是，是的，這正是我們所看到的。正如我在之前的評論中所說，我認為在今年下半年，這種壓力將開始減輕。

Our next question today is from the line of Alexia Howard of Bernstein.

今天我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的亞歷克西婭·霍華德。

So I think you mentioned at the beginning that the first quarter was coming in a bit better than expected on both the top and the bottom line. I'm wondering, therefore, why there wouldn't be a guidance raise at this point or whether maybe there are things on the table that are still highly uncertain. I mean we've just mentioned the consumer. Maybe you could just speak to what you see as the key uncertainties as we move through the next few quarters?

因此，我認為您在一開始就提到，第一季的收入和利潤都比預期要好一些。因此，我想知道為什麼此時不會提高指導意見，或者是否有一些事情仍然高度不確定。我的意思是我們剛剛提到了消費者。也許您可以談談我們在接下來的幾個季度中所看到的主要不確定因素？

Yes. I think Alexia, it really comes down to the simple fact. It's only the first quarter. So there's always uncertainty with 3 quarters to remain but it really gives us the very strong confidence that we're going to deliver a very good year. And what I mean by that is it allows us to really think about the best levels of reinvestment that we can do.

是的。我認為 Alexia，這確實可以歸結為一個簡單的事實。這只是第一季。因此，剩下的三個季度總是存在不確定性，但這確實給了我們非常強烈的信心，我們將交付一個非常好的一年。我的意思是，它讓我們能夠真正思考我們可以做到的最佳再投資水準。

And I'll give you some examples of that. Route-to-market in Latin America and EMEA continues to be really exciting for us. We're going to invest a little bit more in route-to-market. Everything around digital transformation and artificial intelligence allows us to lean in more than we had planned, and we were already leading in this year in our plans. We can lean in even more on that.

我會給你一些例子。拉丁美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲的市場路線仍然令我們興奮不已。我們將在市場路線上投入更多。圍繞數位轉型和人工智慧的一切都讓我們能夠比計劃更加努力，而我們今年已經在計劃中處於領先地位。我們可以更加依賴這一點。

And then brand building, especially brand building. I'll give you a real-life example of that. I talked about the Pop-Tarts movie. It really is an exceptional movie. And when a comedic genius and icon like Jerry Seinfeld, makes a movie about -- full feature length movie about your product with a star-studded cast, that gives you an opportunity. So we didn't know about it and we're leaning into it. We've got displays going up all over the place.

然後是品牌建設，尤其是品牌建立。我會給你一個現實生活中的例子。我談到了 Pop-Tarts 電影。這確實是一部非凡的電影。當像傑瑞宋飛 (Jerry Seinfeld) 這樣的喜劇天才和偶像製作一部關於您的產品的長篇電影，演員陣容眾多時，這給了您一個機會。所以我們不知道它，但我們正在研究它。我們到處都有展示。

We've got a special pack with Jerry's picture on it, and we've got a 90-second video shot by Jerry that's airing right now. None of that was in the budget, and we were able to lean in, in a meaningful way to really accelerate the Pop-Tarts momentum. So we're in that type of position right now. So there's nothing looming on the horizon that's scaring us. It just allows us to really set up the year for an exceptional performance.

我們有一個特殊的包，上面有傑瑞的照片，還有一段由傑瑞拍攝的 90 秒視頻，目前正在播放。這些都不在預算中，我們能夠以一種有意義的方式真正加速 Pop-Tarts 的發展勢頭。所以我們現在就處於這種情況。因此，地平線上並沒有什麼讓我們感到害怕的事情。它只是讓我們能夠真正為今年的出色表現做好準備。

Great. And could I just follow up? Your leverage is obviously low at the moment. You've got this transitional services agreement that's going to be fading down. What's your appetite for doing a deal. I know there's a lot of moving pieces right now. Is it too soon to try to replace the sales and EBIT that were lost with the spin-off of WK Kellogg or are you actively looking at the moment? And if so, I presume it would be in snacking, but would it be domestically or internationally, just curious?

偉大的。我可以跟進嗎？目前你的槓桿率顯然很低。您已經獲得了這份即將失效的過渡服務協議。您對達成交易的興趣是什麼。我知道現在有很多變動的事情。現在嘗試彌補因 WK Kellogg 分拆而損失的銷售額和息稅前利潤是否為時過早，或者您是否正在積極關注這一時刻？如果是這樣，我想它會在零食領域，但它會在國內還是國際上，只是好奇？

Yes. So we like the health of our balance sheet without a doubt. Our net debt continues to go down. Our leverage ratios continue to go down. So we have the capacity to do something if it creates share-owner value. And we're always on the lookout for anything that does create share-owner value. So you're right, Snacks is -- we talk about being a snacking led powerhouse, 50% percent of our business is outside the U.S., so we could do something domestically or outside.

是的。因此，毫無疑問，我們喜歡資產負債表的健康狀況。我們的淨債務持續下降。我們的槓桿率持續下降。因此，如果能夠創造股東價值，我們就有能力做些什麼。我們一直在尋找任何能夠創造股東價值的東西。所以你是對的，Snacks 是——我們談論的是一家以零食為主導的巨頭，我們 50% 的業務都在美國境外，所以我們可以在國內或國外做一些事情。

We're not really looking to change to -- to proactively change to be more international or more domestic. We would look at the absolute best deal out there. And we have the capacity to do it. Equally, we're very excited about our organic opportunities, which I just mentioned Pop-Tarts, but Cheez-It internationally continues to be a priority for us. Adding Pringles capacity is very much a part of our capital plan this year, building 2 new factories, 1 in Latin America, another one in Asia. So we've got good uses for our capital with high ROIs, but M&A could factor into that as well.

我們並不是真的希望改變——主動改變變得更加國際化或更國內化。我們會考慮那裡絕對最好的交易。我們有能力做到這一點。同樣，我們對有機機會感到非常興奮，我剛才提到了 Pop-Tarts，但國際化的 Cheez-It 仍然是我們的首要任務。增加品客薯片產能是我們今年資本計畫的重要組成部分，我們將建造兩家新工廠，其中一家位於拉丁美洲，另一家位於亞洲。因此，我們的資本得到了很好的利用，投資報酬率很高，但併購也可能會影響這一點。

Our next question today is from the line of Tom Palmer of Citi.

今天我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。

I wanted to just try to bridge the profit improvement you saw in North America. I think even excluding the TSA contribution that you noted, we'd be looking at almost a 20% increase in operating profit relative to last year's adjusted number. Clearly, the positive pricing would seem to have offset the volume declines.

我想嘗試彌補北美地區利潤的改善。我認為，即使排除您提到的 TSA 貢獻，我們的營業利潤也將比去年調整後的數字增長近 20%。顯然，積極的定價似乎抵消了銷量的下降。

But just wondering on other items. It does seem like investments were stepped up, but the cost environment maybe is a bit more favorable? And then kind of how does that cost environment progress as we think about subsequent quarters?

但只是想知道其他項目。看起來投資確實加大了，但成本環境或許更有利一些？那麼，當我們考慮接下來的幾季時，成本環境會如何進展？

Yes. I think very strong performance in our North America business this quarter. So very pleased with that. I think it's all the factors that you mentioned. So it's the benefit of the revenue growth actions that we took last year. It's a moderating cost environment. So we're seeing that play out. I think this quarter, the supply chain performed well. And from a lapping standpoint, this was the biggest lap from the shortages and bottlenecks. So those were kind of some of the drivers.

是的。我認為本季我們的北美業務表現非常強勁。對此非常滿意。我想這就是你提到的所有因素。所以這是我們去年採取的收入成長行動的好處。這是一個成本適中的環境。所以我們正在看到這種情況的發生。我認為這個季度供應鍊錶現不錯。從圈速的角度來看，這是由於短缺和瓶頸而跑出的最大圈速。這些就是一些司機。

We continue to expect to see strong profit performance, both gross and operating, through the year, probably not at the pace in -- we saw in quarter 1 because we're lapping bulk of the shortages and bottlenecks we lap. That was predominantly in quarter 1. And then some of the mechanical elements like the currency impact was most pronounced in quarter 1. That will probably moderate in the rest of the year. I mentioned earlier that we lapped -- or we anniversaried the TSA reimbursements in quarter 4. So we'd expect continued good performance through the year, but not as pronounced as we saw in quarter 1.

我們仍然預計全年的毛利和營運利潤表現將強勁，但可能不會達到我們在第一季看到的速度，因為我們正在克服大部分短缺和瓶頸。這主要發生在第一季。我之前提到，我們在第四季度完成了 TSA 報銷週年紀念日。

Okay. And then a quarter ago, you guided for all operating segments to report organic sales growth and constant currency operating profit growth in line with their long-term algorithms? Is this still the case? Or is there any shift here just given the strong start to the year?

好的。然後一個季度前，您指導所有營運部門根據其長期演算法報告有機銷售成長和固定貨幣營運利潤成長？現在還是這樣嗎？或者考慮到今年的強勁開局，這裡是否發生了任何變化？

I'd say broadly in line with what (inaudible). So no major changes. I think it's coming slightly better than expected. Currency in Nigeria is obviously devalued more than we thought, and the teams there are pricing to recover that. So some changes, but overall, broadly, I'd say, in line with our -- in line with the long-term algo that we had guided to.

我想說的是大致符合什麼（聽不清楚）。所以沒有太大的改變。我認為情況比預期的要好一些。尼日利亞的貨幣貶值幅度顯然比我們想像的要大，而那裡的團隊正在定價來恢復這一點。所以有些變化，但總的來說，我想說，符合我們的——符合我們指導的長期演算法。

Our next question today is from the line of Andrew Lazar of Barclays.

今天我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Amit, a lot of discussion on North America profitability, obviously coming in and far better than most of us had modeled even adjusting for some of the one-off nature of things. But I assume there was actually also some element of negative fixed cost absorption are in there due to the fact that volume in North America has continued to be on the weaker side.

阿米特，關於北美盈利能力的大量討論顯然正在到來，並且遠遠好於我們大多數人的模型，甚至針對事物的一些一次性性質進行了調整。但我認為其實也存在一些負固定成本吸收的因素，因為北美的銷售持續疲軟。

I guess, how much of a headwind to gross margin might that have been in North America or to overall Kellanova that I would assume would also start to moderate or taper off as volume trends start to stabilize and/or even improve in the back part of the year?

我猜，北美或整個凱拉諾瓦的毛利率可能會受到多大的阻力，我認為隨著銷售趨勢開始穩定和/或甚至在下半年有所改善，我認為這種阻力也會開始減弱或逐漸減弱。

Yes. I think, Andrew, it was a headwind. But like I said, I think the improved supply chain performance more than offset that. So while the volume line was a bit of a headwind, by far the biggest driver was the lapping of the improved supply chain performance, the improved service levels. And so I think that's kind of more than offset that.

是的。我認為，安德魯，這是一個逆風。但正如我所說，我認為供應鏈績效的改善足以抵銷這種影響。因此，雖然產量線有點不利，但迄今為止最大的推動因素是供應鏈績效的改善和服務水準的提高。所以我認為這不僅僅是抵消這一點。

And of course, we'd expect the volume leverage to start improving as the volume trends start improving in the latter part of the year. The benefit of the lapping of the bottlenecks will moderate, some volume leverage would pick up. So that's kind of the shape of the year.

當然，隨著今年下半年成交量趨勢開始改善，我們預期成交量槓桿將開始改善。克服瓶頸的好處將會減弱，一些成交量槓桿將會上升。這就是今年的情況。

Okay. And then quickly, Steve, just -- we've heard a lot of discussion also in general about just, consumers, maybe the lower income consumer is obviously reacting to just sort of absolute price points, right, being sort of where they are as opposed to anything having to do with price gaps, vis-a-vis private label or anything else.

好的。然後很快，史蒂夫，我們也聽到了很多關於消費者的討論，也許低收入消費者顯然對絕對價格點做出了反應，對吧，就像他們所處的位置一樣反對任何與價格差距、自有品牌或其他任何事情有關的事。

And sometimes there's an adjustment period here in terms of consumers adjusting their sort of their reference price points with what they may have equated with a product on promotion prior to the sort of the last 2 years of inflation and whatnot.

有時，這裡有一個調整期，消費者會根據過去兩年的通貨膨脹等因素之前的促銷產品來調整他們的參考價格點。

I guess where do you think the consumer is with respect to adjusting their -- sort of their reference price points? Do you think they're making some progress on that front? And maybe that's part of what plays into, hopefully helping industry volumes in the back part of the year as well? I'm just curious your thoughts on that.

我想你認為消費者在調整他們的參考價格點上處於​​什麼位置？您認為他們在這方面取得了一些進展嗎？也許這就是其中的一部分，希望也能幫助今年下半年的產業銷售？我只是好奇你對此的想法。

Yes, Andrew, I think that's exactly right. We talked, I think, in the last quarter and probably the last 2 quarters about those very reference price points and talking about the consumer will walk by 4 or 5 trips and not just be able to accept that new reference price point. So I think we're there -- we're there about, probably the seventh or eighth inning, if you like.

是的，安德魯，我認為這是完全正確的。我認為，我們在上個季度甚至可能是最後兩個季度討論了這些非常參考的價格點，並討論了消費者將步行 4 或 5 趟，而不僅僅是能夠接受新的參考價格點。所以我認為我們已經到了——如果你願意的話，我們可能到了第七局或第八局。

At the same time, companies like us continue to also work RGM initiatives, and it's not shrinkflation. It's making sure that you can hold your margin and hit a price point, and sometimes that means a smaller size. And so I think the combination of all of those things working together leads us to believe that the second half of the year is going to be the inflection point for the consumer.

同時，像我們這樣的公司也繼續實施 RGM 舉措，這不是收縮通貨膨脹​​。它確保您可以保持利潤並達到價格點，有時這意味著較小的尺寸。因此，我認為所有這些因素的結合使我們相信今年下半年將成為消費者的轉捩點。

And for us, as I said, I think we get there even faster than that because of what we're lapping. Because we admittedly came back to merchandising activity perhaps later than we otherwise would have, knowing what we know today. But the fact of the matter is we are there now. We are merchandising more effectively. We've got more quality displays. We like our price points. We do like our price points and where they are with consumers.

對於我們來說，正如我所說，我認為由於我們正在研磨的東西，我們到達那裡的速度甚至更快。因為我們承認，我們回到行銷活動的時間可能比我們原本應該做的要晚，因為我們知道我們今天所知道的事情。但事實是我們現在就在那裡。我們的推銷更加有效。我們有更多優質的展示。我們喜歡我們的價格點。我們確實喜歡我們的價格點以及它們對消費者的影響。

And so we see all that leading to a better back half of the year, although still not without pressure. So I don't want to be pollyannish about it. The consumer is still under a good bit of pressure, but I do think that there is brightness on the horizon.

因此，我們看到所有這些都會導致今年下半年的情況好轉，儘管仍然存在壓力。所以我不想對此過於盲目樂觀。消費者仍然面臨著很大的壓力，但我確實認為光明即將到來。

Our next question today is from the line of Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

I just want to come back to the big picture outlook for the consumer. And we've touched a little bit already on possibly the food-away-from-home shift to food-at-home as a possible tailwind. But I guess every company is looking for volume improvement in the second half even if you think about food-away-from-home shifts adding -- growing the pie, private label momentum is still strong. We hear over and over again about the pressured consumer. Lapping SNAP kind of puts an incremental negative in the rearview, but doesn't replace it with any new boost.

我只想回到消費者的整體前景。我們已經談到了從外地食物到在家食物的轉變可能是一種可能的推動力。但我想每家公司都在尋求下半年銷量的改善，即使你考慮到外賣的轉變——不斷擴大餡餅，自有品牌的勢頭仍然強勁。我們一遍又一遍聽到有關消費者壓力的說法。研磨 SNAP 有點在後視鏡中增加了負面影響，但並沒有用任何新的推動來取代它。

So I guess where does all the volume come from? Is it -- do you expect private label share to reverse, is it just that other competitors in the branded space will cede share to Kellanova? How do we think about how that's meant to unfold?

所以我猜所有的音量都是從哪裡來的？您是否預期自有品牌份額會出現逆轉，是否只是品牌領域的其他競爭對手會將份額讓給 Kellanova？我們如何看待這意味著如何展開？

Yes. So I think if you step back and relook at everything, I don't think that there has been volume destruction, right? If there is a caloric reduction in the population, it is quite minimal. And a couple of quarters ago, everybody wanted to talk about the GLP-1 drugs, I think that's faded as well.

是的。所以我認為，如果你退後一步，重新審視一切，我不認為存在體積破壞，對吧？即使人口的熱量減少了，那也是微乎其微的。幾個季度前，每個人都想談論 GLP-1 藥物，我認為這也已經消失了。

So if you start with the premise that more or less the caloric state remains the same, then the volume goes somewhere. And I think those with the best full commercial activation with brands that matter to consumers are going to be the ultimate winners.

因此，如果你從熱量狀態或多或少保持不變的前提開始，那麼體積就會改變。我認為那些擁有最全面的商業活化以及對消費者重要的品牌的公司將成為最終的贏家。

And that's why we're excited about where we are in terms of our ability to reinvest and continue to step up our investment against the consumer and against household penetration and making sure that we're delighting our consumers all along the way. Because we think the volume potential is still very real and hasn't had any full diminishment, if you like.

這就是為什麼我們對我們的再投資能力感到興奮，並繼續增加對消費者和家庭滲透的投資，並確保我們一路上讓消費者滿意。因為我們認為銷量潛力仍然非常真實，並且沒有任何完全減少（如果你願意的話）。

And you've touched in the past on potential consumer adjustments in terms of things like waste reduction, just using more leftovers. Is that some of the behavior that might refer to prior norms or that -- is that some of the things you're counting on as part of the change?

您過去曾談到潛在的消費者調整，例如減少浪費，只是使用更多的剩菜。這是一些可能參考先前規範的行為，還是您所指望作為變革一部分的一些行為？

Yes. I think it's interesting because you all are on this call and we and all of our peers have been in search of where that volume is, right? And there's been a lot of hypotheses. And I think the fact is it's probably a lot of things that are hard to measure. One is managing the household pantry, less leftovers, more creativity. I think all those things have been coming into play.

是的。我認為這很有趣，因為你們都參加了這次電話會議，我們和我們所有的同行一直在尋找這個卷在哪裡，對吧？而且有很多假設。我認為事實是很多事情可能很難衡量。一是管理家庭食品儲藏室，減少剩菜，增加創意。我認為所有這些事情都在發揮作用。

But they're now -- if you think about it, they're in the base, right? You can only work that pantry so long, the pantry is not an infinite supply of stuff in the corners, and so that's been worked. But I think this new consumer behavior around less food waste and more -- making sure that leftovers are really used, is probably consumer behavior as far as we can tell, that will remain.

但他們現在——如果你仔細想想，他們就在基地裡，對嗎？你只能在那個食品儲藏室工作這麼長時間，食品儲藏室並不是在角落裡無限供應的東西，所以這已經解決了。但我認為，據我們所知，這種圍繞著減少食物浪費和更多食物浪費的新消費者行為——確保剩菜得到真正利用，可能是消費者行為，並將繼續存在。

But again, it's in the base. And so I think there's a normal, if you like. Now as the economy improves, if it does improve, if discretionary income keeps growing faster than inflation, you'll likely see a return to kind of the pre-inflationary times as people become a little bit more comfortable. I think that would be a natural outcome. But right now, I think we see the continuation of that behavior, recognizing that it's in the base.

但話又說回來，它是在基地裡。所以我認為如果你願意的話，這是正常的。現在，隨著經濟的改善，如果確實有所改善，如果可自由支配收入的成長速度繼續快於通貨膨脹，那麼隨著人們變得更加舒適，您可能會看到回到通貨膨脹之前的時代。我認為這將是一個自然的結果。但現在，我認為我們看到了這種行為的延續，並認識到它是在基地。

And just a quick follow-up on LATAM. You called out the performance there being what it was despite the SKU rationalizations that you've had. Can you just give a sense of maybe the magnitude of what that was? And are there incrementally new ones we should be mindful of modeling ahead? Or is this closer to winding down?

關於拉丁美洲的快速後續。儘管您對 SKU 進行了合理化調整，但您還是稱讚了其表現。您能大致了解一下這件事的嚴重程度嗎？我們是否應該注意提前建模？或者這已經接近結束？

I think it's largely behind us. And so yes, but overall, we're seeing good momentum in our LATAM business, both in Mexico as well as in Brazil.

我認為這很大程度上已經落後於我們了。是的，但總的來說，我們在墨西哥和巴西的拉丁美洲業務都看到了良好的勢頭。

Our next question today is from the line of David Palmer of Evercore ISI.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

Last quarter, I think you guided to 20% for the year, North America Snacks organic sales growth, low single digits. Is that still the thinking? And if so, how do you envision price versus volume this year for North America? Just looking at the last 4 weeks, and I know you highlighted in the last 4 weeks, I don't know if that composition is how you're thinking things will play out. But it does look like price per unit is down low single digits with volume offsetting that, and I'm not sure how indicative that will be?

上個季度，我認為你們將全年北美零食有機銷售成長 20% 的目標定為低個位數。現在還是這樣的想法嗎？如果是這樣，您如何看待今年北美的價格與銷售？看看過去 4 週，我知道你在過去 4 週強調了這一點，我不知道這個構圖是否是你所認為的事情會如何發展。但看起來單位價格確實下降了低個位數，而數量抵消了這一點，我不確定這有多大意義？

Yes, David, I think if you look at what's happened in the last 18 months, 2 years, been too much price and not enough volume for obvious reasons. And now we're seeing the -- we're starting to see the reversal of that in North America. And as I mentioned several times on the call now, we're seeing a better volume performance. You can see that in the latest published data. We're seeing a gradual recovery in that.

是的，大衛，我想如果你看看過去 18 個月、2 年發生的事情，你會發現價格過高而銷量不足，原因顯而易見。現在我們開始看到北美的情況出現逆轉。正如我現在在電話會議中多次提到的那樣，我們看到了更好的銷售表現。從最新公佈的數據中你可以看到這一點。我們看到這方面正在逐步復甦。

And we are very confident in the back half of the year based on what we see right now in terms of our volume performance. So we like the balance that we see returning to our business and we have a lot of optimism that, that's going to continue.

根據我們現在所看到的銷售表現，我們對今年下半年非常有信心。因此，我們喜歡業務恢復的平衡，並且我們對這種情況將持續下去非常樂觀。

So do you think this is going to be one where we, maybe see volume even stronger than net sales in that division. Is that the kind of year because you're leaning in with high-quality merchandising that's going to lead to some net pricing per unit offset to the volume that you're going to get. Is that fair?

那麼您是否認為我們可能會看到該部門的銷售量甚至比淨銷售額還要強。今年是這樣嗎？這樣公平嗎？

I would just -- I don't want to go too deep into individual regions and volume price/mix beyond what we said, and that is, it's getting a lot better. The volume performance continues to get a lot better. For us, the return to full merchandising activity, which we mentioned several times, is the real driver of that volume recovery. And we like what we see in terms of that balance. We like what we're seeing with the reinvestments in our brands. We like what we're seeing in terms of our share improvements in the marketplace, all those things combining to give us the confidence that we've been talking about.

我只是——我不想太深入地了解個別地區和數量價格/組合超出我們所說的範圍，也就是說，它正在變得更好。體積性能繼續變得更好。對我們來說，我們多次提到的全面商品銷售活動的恢復是銷售恢復的真正驅動力。我們喜歡我們所看到的這種平衡。我們對品牌再投資所看到的結果感到高興。我們喜歡我們在市場上所看到的份額的提高，所有這些因素結合在一起給了我們一直在談論的信心。

And just a follow-up on supply chain was a constraint for the old Kellogg's and Kellanova, perhaps more than most companies last year. I know it kept you from doing some of the things you're doing now, the growth spending and -- but also maybe on productivity initiatives. Are there certain metrics you could just talk about just year-over-year where you were. It can be the shift on time and in full. But other metrics, including productivity quarter -- year-over-year in the quarter, that can give us a sense of how much the supply chain is a big helper?

對於老家樂氏（Kellogg's）和凱拉諾瓦（Kellanova）來說，供應鏈的後續追蹤就是一個限制，也許比去年的大多數公司還要嚴重。我知道這讓你無法做你現在正在做的一些事情，成長支出以及——但也可能是生產力計劃。您是否可以逐年談論某些指標？可以是準時、全面的輪班。但其他指標，包括季度生產力——與去年同期相比，可以讓我們了解供應鏈在多大程度上起到了很大的幫助作用？

David, I would just say I wouldn't say that our supply chain was disadvantaged in the past. What we did say is we were perhaps more conservative than others in wanting to keep our supply fill rates at a very high level and therefore, did not return to full merchandising commercial activation as some of our peers did. Our supply chain right now is performing at a very high level, like think about pre-pandemic high watermarks in terms of on-time in full. So that's where we are, and that's why we have the confidence.

大衛，我只是說我不會說我們的供應鏈過去處於不利地位。我們確實說過，我們可能比其他人更保守，希望將我們的供應填充率保持在非常高的水平，因此，沒有像我們的一些同行那樣恢復全面的商品商業激活。我們的供應鏈現在的表現非常高，就像考慮一下疫情前的準時率高水位線一樣。這就是我們的處境，這就是我們有信心的原因。

In terms of productivity, we're back to the type of productivity initiatives that we were pre-pandemic as well. So that's been very, very positive. We announced worldwide a couple of productivity initiatives that we talked about last quarter that are proceeding very, very well. And so we like where our supply chain is in North America, and we like where our supply chain is globally.

在生產力方面，我們也回到了疫情前的生產力計畫類型。所以這是非常非常積極的。我們在全球範圍內宣布了幾項我們上季度討論過的生產力舉措，這些舉措進展非常非常順利。因此，我們喜歡我們的供應鏈位於北美，我們也喜歡我們的供應鏈位於全球。

Our next question is from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

Yes. Just a quick one. I guess a follow-up on that prior line of questioning on North American pricing kind of in combination with Andrew Lazar's question on volumetric leverage. As you think about the benefits of volume leverage throughout the year, offset by the price investments that we're seeing. How does that play out on net impact on margins? Is that a net positive and that drag just as we think about the sequential progression?

是的。只是快一點。我想這是對北美定價問題的後續行動，與安德魯·拉扎爾關於體積槓桿的問題相結合。當您考慮全年成交量槓桿的好處時，我們看到的價格投資抵消了這一好處。這對利潤率的淨影響如何？正如我們思考連續進展一樣，這是一個淨正面因素和阻力嗎？

Yes. I think, Steve, there are a number of things playing through in the margin, right? And like I mentioned earlier, right, we're confident that our gross margins will be more than 35%. Within that, there are a number of moving parts. Obviously, inflation, which we set and continue -- the guide continues to be neutral-ish across a number of cost elements. So that's playing through.

是的。我認為，史蒂夫，邊緣有很多事情正在發生，對吧？正如我之前提到的，我們有信心毛利率將超過 35%。其中有許多活動部件。顯然，我們設定並繼續實施的通貨膨脹——該指南在許多成本要素上仍然保持中立。這樣就玩完了。

The improved performance of the supply chain is a tailwind this year. I think from a price standpoint, the price/mix is obviously moderating. So I think it's a combination of those factors. Now, we should start seeing some volume leverage as the volume trends improve. But all of that kind of factors into the -- to our expectation that we continue to see gross margin expansion, not at the rate we saw in quarter 1, but we'd expect that the gross margins will continue to be -- continue to improve and be north of 35% for the year.

供應鏈績效的改善是今年的動力。我認為從價格的角度來看，價格/組合顯然正在緩和。所以我認為這是這些因素的結合。現在，隨著交易量趨勢的改善，我們應該開始看到一些交易量槓桿。但所有這些因素都影響到我們的預期，我們將繼續看到毛利率擴張，而不是我們在第一季度看到的速度，但我們預計毛利率將繼續——繼續全年改善並超過 35%。

Okay. Very good. And Steve, I was hoping you can talk a little bit more about the Cheez-It's expansion overseas. You gave some snippets -- as you went region by region, you gave some snippets about kind of what to watch for. But maybe you could just pull it all together in aggregate and just talk about that initiative and kind of what to watch for in aggregate as you progress through '24, and we start thinking about further progression into '25?

好的。非常好。史蒂夫，我希望你能多談談 Cheez-It 的海外擴張。您提供了一些片段——當您逐個地區進行訪問時，您提供了一些關於需要關注的內容的片段。但也許您可以將所有內容匯總在一起，然後討論該倡議以及在您度過“24”的過程中需要總體關注的內容，然後我們開始考慮進一步進入“25”？

Yes. So we are excited about the Cheez-It and their international prospects. We've got Cheez-It now in Canada, Mexico, Brazil. We're applying those learnings to the launch in Europe later this year, particularly in the U.K. And the U.K. team is very excited about it. The initial research on product and on positioning is very strong.

是的。因此，我們對 Cheez-It 及其國際前景感到興奮。我們現在在加拿大、墨西哥和巴西都有 Cheez-It。我們將把這些經驗應用到今年稍後在歐洲的發布中，特別是在英國，英國團隊對此感到非常興奮。對產品和定位的初步研究非常有力。

And so this is not anything that's going to really affect your models per se because we're taking it in a very pragmatic way market by market, continuing to build the playbook. So each next market is more successful than the one that came before it. And so '24 will be the European launch, and then later in '24, we'll talk about additional markets for '25 and beyond.

因此，這不會真正影響您的模型本身，因為我們正在以非常務實的方式逐個市場地對待它，繼續建立劇本。因此，接下來的每個市場都比之前的市場更成功。因此，'24 將在歐洲推出，然後在 '24 晚些時候，我們將討論 '25 及以後的其他市場。

Thank you. And I'm afraid we have run out of time for any further questions today. So I'd like to hand back to Mr. John Renwick for any closing remarks.

謝謝。恐怕今天我們已經沒有時間回答任何進一步的問題了。因此，我想請 John Renwick 先生做結束語。

Well, thank you, everyone, for your time and your interest. And if you do have follow-up calls, please do not hesitate to call us. Have a great day.

好的，謝謝大家的時間和興趣。如果您確實有後續電話，請隨時致電我們。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。