家樂氏 (K) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the Kellogg Company's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。歡迎來到 Kellogg 公司 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I will turn the call over to John Renwick, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning for Kellogg Company.

此時，我會將電話轉給 Kellogg 公司投資者關係和企業規劃副總裁 John Renwick。

Mr. Renwick, you may begin your conference call.

Renwick 先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for a review of our first quarter results and an update on our outlook for 2023.

謝謝你，運營商。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們第一季度的業績並更新我們對 2023 年的展望。

I'm joined this morning by Steve Cahillane, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Amit Banati, our Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer.

今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Steve Cahillane 加入了我的行列；和我們的副董事長兼首席財務官 Amit Banati。

Slide #3 shows our forward-looking statements disclaimer. As you are aware, certain statements made today such as projections for Kellogg Company's future performance are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information and concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the third slide of this presentation as well as to our public SEC filings.

幻燈片 #3 顯示了我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。如您所知，今天發表的某些聲明（例如對家樂氏公司未來業績的預測）屬於前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與預期結果存在重大差異。有關可能導致這些結果不同的更多信息和相關因素，請參閱本演示文稿的第三張幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件。

A recording of today's webcast and supporting documents will be archived for at least 90 days on the Investor page of kelloggcompany.com. As always, when referring to our results and outlook, unless otherwise noted, we will be referring to them on an organic basis for net sales and on a currency-neutral adjusted basis for operating profit and earnings per share.

今天的網絡廣播錄音和支持文件將在 kelloggcompany.com 的投資者頁面上存檔至少 90 天。與往常一樣，在提及我們的業績和展望時，除非另有說明，否則我們將在淨銷售額的有機基礎上以及在貨幣中性調整的基礎上參考營業利潤和每股收益。

And now I'll turn it over to Steve.

現在我將把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to be able to report a very strong start to the year. In fact, it was stronger than we had anticipated and puts us in the enviable position of being able to raise our outlook for the full year.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。我們很高興能夠報告今年開局非常強勁。事實上，它比我們預期的要強勁，使我們處於能夠提高全年展望的令人羨慕的位置。

Our top line growth momentum continues, as shown on Slide #5. This was our fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic net sales growth. And beneath the magnitude of our Q1 growth are promising trends. We continue to deliver above our long-term growth target.

如幻燈片 #5 所示，我們的收入增長勢頭仍在繼續。這是我們連續第四個季度實現兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。在我們第一季度增長的幅度之下是有希望的趨勢。我們繼續超越我們的長期增長目標。

We continue to deliver broad-based growth across each of our 4 regions and across each of our 4 major category groups. Our soon-to-be Kellanova businesses continued to grow strongly, led by snacks in emerging markets all paced by our highly differentiated world-class brands.

我們繼續在我們的 4 個地區和我們的 4 個主要類別組中的每個地區實現廣泛的增長。我們即將成立的 Kellanova 業務繼續強勁增長，新興市場的零食由我們高度差異化的世界級品牌帶動。

Our soon-to-be W.K. Kellogg Co. businesses continued to show recovery in net sales, consumption and share. We have continued to execute revenue growth management actions across our businesses right through the first quarter in order to keep up with high input cost inflation.

我們即將成為 W.K. Kellogg Co. 業務繼續顯示淨銷售額、消費和份額的複蘇。我們在第一季度繼續在我們的業務中執行收入增長管理行動，以跟上高投入成本通脹。

And we have supported our growth with sustained innovation and with the supply improving, increased brand-building investment. So we feel very good about our top line growth momentum and outlook. We also feel good about restoring our profit margins. We said that this would be a year in which we stabilize and even improve our margins after being pressured the last couple of years by soaring input cost inflation, and inefficiencies and costs related to bottlenecks and shortages.

我們通過持續創新和供應改善、增加品牌建設投資來支持我們的增長。因此，我們對我們的收入增長勢頭和前景感到非常滿意。我們也對恢復利潤率感到滿意。我們說，在過去幾年因投入成本通脹飆升以及與瓶頸和短缺相關的低效率和成本而承受壓力後，今年將是我們穩定甚至提高利潤率的一年。

The chart on Slide #6 shows that margins are indeed stabilizing. In fact, better-than-expected margins are what drove most of the first quarter overdelivery versus our expectations. Aside from what we're lapping, what's behind this improving underlying margin performance is what gives us increased confidence in the full year.

幻燈片 #6 上的圖表顯示利潤率確實在穩定。事實上，好於預期的利潤率是導致第一季度超出我們預期的大部分原因。除了我們正在尋找的東西之外，這種改善的基本利潤率表現背後的原因是讓我們對全年更有信心。

Firstly, we continue to execute well on productivity initiatives and revenue growth management actions both of which are starting to more fully catch up with our input cost inflation.

首先，我們繼續很好地執行生產力計劃和收入增長管理行動，這兩項行動都開始更充分地趕上我們的投入成本通脹。

Second, we continue to improve our service levels and the bottlenecks and shortages that had created so much disruption are finally receding. So while costs remain high, we are pleased with the quick in pace of our profit margin recovery. And it's not just the financials that are off to a good start in 2023. Kellogg's Better Days promise, our social and environmental program continues to be a strategic priority for us.

其次，我們繼續提高我們的服務水平，造成如此多中斷的瓶頸和短缺終於消退。因此，儘管成本仍然很高，但我們對利潤率恢復的速度很快感到滿意。 2023 年開局良好的不僅僅是財務方面。凱洛格的 Better Days 承諾，我們的社會和環境計劃仍然是我們的戰略重點。

And as shown on Slide #7, we were as active as ever in these areas during the first quarter. From actions visible in the marketplace, shown on the left hand side of the page, the philanthropic and sustainability activities in the middle column, we continued to take an action-oriented approach. And the far right column shows that these actions continue to be recognized.

正如幻燈片 #7 所示，我們在第一季度在這些領域一如既往地活躍。從市場上可見的行動（顯示在頁面左側）到中間欄的慈善和可持續發展活動，我們繼續採取以行動為導向的方法。最右邊的一欄顯示這些動作繼續得到認可。

We believe ESG is one of Kellogg Company's differentiating strengths and will continue to be when we are Kellanova and W.K. Kellogg. And speaking of Kellanova and W.K. Kellogg, we are very pleased with how our spin-off work is progressing.

我們相信 ESG 是家樂氏公司的差異化優勢之一，而且當我們成為 Kellanova 和 W.K.凱洛格。說到 Kellanova 和 W.K. Kellogg，我們對分拆工作的進展情況感到非常滿意。

Slide #8 offers a high-level time line of the work we are doing in order to be able to set up both companies for success, provide you with the strategic and financial information you need and execute the transaction. Everything is progressing well. The announcement of new company names has been well received by stakeholders.

幻燈片 #8 提供了我們正在進行的工作的高級時間表，以便能夠讓兩家公司取得成功，為您提供所需的戰略和財務信息並執行交易。一切進展順利。新公司名稱的公佈受到了利益相關者的歡迎。

The organizational design work is finishing up with leadership team members already announced and the remainder of talent placements coming later in the second quarter. The design and setup of systems and processes for W.K. Kellogg is underway and various post-spin transition services continued to be ironed out. Prior year carve-out financials are being prepared, and we expect to have them audited in the next couple of months.

組織設計工作正在完成，領導團隊成員已經宣布，其餘人才安置將在第二季度晚些時候進行。為 W.K. 設計和設置系統和流程。 Kellogg 正在進行中，各種旋轉後過渡服務繼續得到解決。前一年的分拆財務正在準備中，我們預計將在未來幾個月內對其進行審計。

During the third quarter, we plan to test run W.K. Kellogg on its own from procurement to manufacturing to invoicing to financials and best of all employee sentiment and engagement remain very high. We expect to be able to provide you with the information via a Form 10 sometime in late summer, followed by an investor event likely in late third quarter, during which we will be able to share with you the strategies, capital structures and financial outlooks for both companies. That will all lead to the transaction, which takes place in the fourth quarter.

在第三季度，我們計劃試運行 W.K.從採購到製造再到發票再到財務，Kellogg 獨自一人，最重要的是員工的情緒和參與度仍然很高。我們希望能夠在夏末的某個時候通過 Form 10 向您提供信息，隨後可能會在第三季度末舉行投資者活動，在此期間我們將能夠與您分享戰略、資本結構和財務前景兩家公司。這一切都將導致交易發生在第四季度。

Again, some of this is dependent on timing of regulatory and other customary approvals, but it should give you assurance that the information and transaction are not far away. And most importantly, all of this preparation work has only strengthened our conviction that this spin-off creates value for shareowners. We are setting up both companies for success.

同樣，其中一些取決於監管和其他慣常批准的時間，但它應該讓您確信信息和交易不會遙遙無期。最重要的是，所有這些準備工作只會加強我們的信念，即此次分拆為股東創造價值。我們正在建立兩家公司以取得成功。

W.K. Kellogg Co. will benefit from focus and resource prioritization. And Kellanova will be a higher-growth company with 80% of sales coming from snacks and emerging markets.

W.K. Kellogg Co. 將從重點和資源優先化中受益。 Kellanova 將成為一家增長速度更快的公司，80% 的銷售額來自零食和新興市場。

Now let me turn it over to Amit, who will provide you the financial details of our first quarter and full year outlook.

現在讓我把它交給 Amit，他將為您提供我們第一季度和全年展望的財務細節。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Slide #10 provides a summary of our first quarter financial results. Obviously, it was a very strong start to the year. Our 14% organic net sales growth was driven by sustained growth in price and mix. Net sales were better than expected, principally because of volume.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。幻燈片 #10 提供了我們第一季度財務業績的摘要。顯然，這是今年的一個非常強勁的開端。我們 14% 的有機淨銷售額增長是由價格和組合的持續增長推動的。淨銷售額好於預期，主要是因為銷量。

As Steve mentioned, we also performed better on profit margins that we had expected, leading to a very strong 18% increase and adjusted operating profit on a currency-neutral basis. This higher operating profit drove adjusted earnings per share to be 3% higher than last year on a currency-neutral basis.

正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們在利潤率方面的表現也超出了我們的預期，導致在貨幣中性基礎上實現了 18% 的非常強勁的增長和調整後的營業利潤。在匯率中性的基礎上，更高的營業利潤推動調整後的每股收益比去年高出 3%。

Remember, this growth is in spite of significant macro-related headwinds on our below the line items. In fact, higher interest expense and lower pension accounting income pulled EPS down by about 5 and 8 percentage points, respectively, year-on-year in the quarter.

請記住，儘管我們的線下項目存在與宏觀相關的重大逆風，但這種增長仍然存在。事實上，較高的利息支出和較低的養老金會計收入分別拉低了本季度每股收益同比下降約 5 個和 8 個百分點。

Cash flow in the first 3 months decreased year-on-year as expected. This is related to the payout of 2022's incentive compensation in quarter 1, cash outlets related to the spin-off and the timing of certain working capital items and capital expenditure.

前 3 個月現金流量同比下降符合預期。這與 2022 年第一季度激勵薪酬的支付、與分拆相關的現金出路以及某些營運資金項目和資本支出的時間安排有關。

Now let's look at each metric in a little more detail. Slide #11 lays out the components of our strong net sales growth in quarter 1. Price mix growth was sustained in the mid-teens, reflecting revenue growth management initiatives around the world which we implemented during 2022 and right through quarter 1, 2023, as we continue to work to offset high input cost inflation.

現在讓我們更詳細地了解每個指標。幻燈片 #11 列出了我們在第一季度強勁的淨銷售額增長的組成部分。價格組合增長在十幾歲中期持續，反映了我們在 2022 年和 2023 年第一季度實施的全球收入增長管理計劃，因為我們繼續努力抵消高投入成本通脹。

Volume declined, reflecting price elasticity though not as much as we had expected for quarter 1. Foreign currency translation reduced net sales by about 3 points, reflecting the stronger U.S. dollar against key currencies versus the prior year.

銷量下降，反映出價格彈性雖然不如我們對第一季度的預期那麼大。外幣換算使淨銷售額減少了約 3 個百分點，反映出美元兌主要貨幣與上一年相比走強。

As we'll discuss in a moment, we are raising our organic net sales guidance for the year. Our outlook continues to prudently assume that price elasticities will sustain their upward move towards historical levels. And depending on the direction of input cost inflation, that price mix will begin to lap last year's sizable revenue growth management actions. Nonetheless, there's no question that posting better-than-expected growth yet again in quarter 1, indicates strong underlying momentum in our business, giving us good confidence in our outlook.

正如我們稍後討論的那樣，我們將提高今年的有機淨銷售額指導。我們的前景繼續謹慎地假設價格彈性將維持其向上移動至歷史水平。並且根據投入成本通脹的方向，這種價格組合將開始與去年可觀的收入增長管理行動相提並論。儘管如此，毫無疑問，第一季度的增長再次好於預期，表明我們業務的潛在動力強勁，使我們對前景充滿信心。

Next, let's review our gross profit performance on Slide #12. As we've discussed numerous times, our objective in this high inflation environment has been to protect gross profit dollars via productivity savings and revenue growth management. As you can see on the chart, we've done a good job at this, even considering the large and transitory impact in quarter 4, 2021 and quarter 1, 2022 of a fire and strike. And we've done this in spite of economy-wide bottlenecks and shortages, which have created significant inefficiencies and incremental costs.

接下來，讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 #12 上的毛利潤表現。正如我們多次討論過的那樣，我們在這種高通脹環境下的目標是通過生產力節約和收入增長管理來保護毛利潤。正如您在圖表上看到的，我們在這方面做得很好，即使考慮到火災和罷工對 2021 年第 4 季度和 2022 年第 1 季度的巨大和短暫影響。儘管在整個經濟範圍內存在瓶頸和短缺，但我們已經做到了這一點，這造成了嚴重的低效率和增量成本。

In the first quarter, we made our most progress yet. Productivity and revenue growth management continue to catch up to a high market-driven input cost inflation. Bottlenecks and shortages did diminish in the quarter a little sooner than we had projected. We did lap a negative residual impact from the fire and strike. But even excluding that estimated impact from last year, our gross profit dollars increased year-on-year. We also improved gross profit on a percentage margin basis as we lap the fire and strike and narrowed our underlying margin decline by more than we expected.

在第一季度，我們取得了最大的進步。生產力和收入增長管理繼續趕上市場驅動的高投入成本通脹。本季度的瓶頸和短缺確實比我們預期的要早一點減少。我們確實對火災和罷工產生了負面的殘餘影響。但即使排除去年的估計影響，我們的毛利潤也同比增長。我們還提高了毛利率，因為我們採取了火力打擊，並以超出我們預期的幅度收窄了我們的基本利潤率下降幅度。

Our plan was always to have a better second half than first half due to gradually improving supply conditions and the lapping of accelerated input cost inflation. This quarter 1 performance gives us that much more confidence that we can finish the year better than the flattish margin we had discussed previously.

由於供應狀況逐漸改善和投入成本通脹加速的疊加，我們的計劃始終是下半年比上半年好。第一季度的表現讓我們更有信心以比我們之前討論的持平利潤率更好的方式結束這一年。

Slide #13 depicts our SG&A expense, whose quarterly year-on-year changes this year are greatly affected by year ago comparisons. As expected, our SG&A in this year's quarter 1 increased at a double-digit rate year-on-year, as we lap an unusual decline in the year earlier period.

幻燈片 #13 描述了我們的 SG&A 費用，其今年的季度同比變化受到去年同期比較的很大影響。正如預期的那樣，我們今年第一季度的 SG&A 同比增長兩位數，因為我們在去年同期出現了異常下降。

As you'll recall, that was when brand building had been pulled back because of supply disruptions, most notably during North America cereals inventory rebuild and as we lapped overhead, that was low, because of low travel and meetings during the pandemic.

你會記得，那時候品牌建設因供應中斷而被取消，最明顯的是在北美穀物庫存重建期間，當我們降低開銷時，由於大流行期間旅行和會議減少，這一點很低。

As you can see on the slide, we start to lap a resumption of brand building and travel and meetings in quarter 2, but it was really the second half last year, when we moved towards full restoration of both and also raised our incentive compensation accruals. But in absolute numbers, we feel good about our levels of investment in brands and capabilities, and we remain on track for the full year.

正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們在第二季度開始計劃恢復品牌建設、旅行和會議，但實際上是在去年下半年，當時我們正朝著全面恢復這兩者的方向邁進，同時也提高了應計激勵薪酬.但就絕對數字而言，我們對我們在品牌和能力方面的投資水平感到滿意，而且我們全年都保持在正軌上。

Moving to Slide #14, we can see that our growth in net sales and gross profit were more than enough to cover this year-on-year rise in SG&A expense, resulting in a 18% currency-neutral growth an adjusted basis operating profit. This is a fourth straight quarter of solid year-on-year growth.

轉到幻燈片 #14，我們可以看到我們的淨銷售額和毛利潤增長足以彌補 SG&A 費用的同比增長，導致 18% 的貨幣中性增長和調整後的基礎營業利潤。這是連續第四個季度實現穩健的同比增長。

Importantly, we have sustained a multiyear upward trajectory on operating profit. Even excluding from the year earlier quarter, an estimated impact of the fire and strike, we continued to grow our dollars year-on-year in quarter 1.

重要的是，我們的營業利潤多年來一直保持上升趨勢。即使從去年同期排除火災和罷工的估計影響，我們在第一季度的美元繼續同比增長。

In fact, our quarter 1 operating profit was higher than previous year's quarter 1 operating profit as well, even dating back to prior to the Keebler divestiture. So obviously, a strong start to the year, and this gives us the confidence to raise our full year guidance.

事實上，我們第一季度的營業利潤也高於去年的第一季度營業利潤，甚至可以追溯到 Keebler 資產剝離之前。很明顯，今年開局強勁，這讓我們有信心提高全年業績指引。

Moving down the income statement. Slide #15 shows that our operating profit growth was more than enough to offset what were severe headwinds within or below-the-line items. These below-the-line pressures were expected and will continue through the year.

向下移動損益表。幻燈片 #15 顯示，我們的營業利潤增長足以抵消線內或線下項目的嚴重逆風。這些線下壓力在意料之中，並將持續一整年。

Interest expense increased significantly year-on-year due to higher interest rates. In dollars, we should see something close to this in each of the remaining three quarters of the year. Other income decreased sharply year-on-year, reflecting accounting of pension and post-retirement plan asset values and interest rates stemming from last year's decline in financial markets.

由於利率上升，利息支出同比大幅增加。以美元計算，我們應該會在今年剩餘的三個季度中的每個季度看到接近於此的情況。其他收入同比大幅下降，反映了去年金融市場下跌導致的養老金和退休後計劃資產價值和利率的核算。

Because of some favorability in some other items in this line, this quarter 1 figure is probably a little higher than what we will see in the remaining quarters. Our effective tax rate came in a little higher than expected, largely due to country mix and some other differences, and it was a little above a full year expected tax rate of about 22%.

由於這一行中其他一些項目的一些有利因素，本季度 1 的數字可能會比我們將在其餘季度看到的數字高一點。我們的實際稅率略高於預期，主要是由於國家組合和其他一些差異，略高於全年預期的 22% 左右的稅率。

Average shares outstanding were up slightly year-on-year, and we would expect that to be the case for the full year as well. In addition, foreign currency translation was a headwind of a little more than 2%. We leave foreign currency translation out of our guidance, because it is out of our control and difficult to predict.

平均流通股同比略有上升，我們預計全年情況也會如此。此外，外幣換算也帶來了略高於 2% 的逆風。我們將外幣換算排除在我們的指導之外，因為它不在我們的控制範圍內並且難以預測。

But today's exchange rates would suggest a sequentially smaller impact in each remaining quarter finishing the year with a negative impact of 1% to 2%. So while these below-the-line items are weighing down EPS as expected, it is important to remember that the operational side of our P&L through operating profit is very strong.

但今天的匯率表明，在今年結束的每個剩餘季度中，影響依次較小，負面影響為 1% 至 2%。因此，儘管這些線下項目如預期的那樣壓低了每股收益，但重要的是要記住，通過營業利潤我們的損益表的運營方面非常強勁。

Now let's turn to our cash flow and balance sheet on Slide #16. As I mentioned earlier, our cash flow in quarter 1 was lower than last year's as we had expected. In addition to lapping a particularly strong year ago period, this quarter, we experienced the payout of 2022's incentive compensation as well as incremental cash outlays related to the spin-off.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 #16 上的現金流量和資產負債表。正如我之前提到的，我們第一季度的現金流低於我們預期的去年。除了去年同期表現強勁外，本季度我們還支付了 2022 年的激勵薪酬以及與分拆相關的增量現金支出。

Cash flow was also impacted year-on-year by timing of working capital and capital expenditure. We remain on track for our full year guidance. Meanwhile, our net debt has been trending lower contributing to our strong financial flexibility.

營運資金和資本支出的時間安排也對現金流量產生了同比影響。我們仍有望實現全年指導。與此同時，我們的淨債務一直呈下降趨勢，這有助於我們實現強大的財務靈活性。

So let's now summarize our guidance on Slide #17. Keep in mind that while we expect the spin-off to be transacted during quarter 4, our guidance assumes, it takes place at year end purely for simplicity reasons. Similarly, while the divestiture of our Russian business awaits government approval, our guidance assumes it remains in our portfolio for the full year, and the divestiture impact will be immaterial to adjusted basis EPS.

現在讓我們總結一下我們對幻燈片 #17 的指導。請記住，雖然我們預計分拆交易將在第 4 季度進行，但我們的指導假定，純粹出於簡單原因，它會在年底進行。同樣，雖然我們俄羅斯業務的剝離正在等待政府批准，但我們的指導假設它全年都保留在我們的投資組合中，並且剝離影響對調整後的每股收益並不重要。

We are raising our guidance for organic net sales growth to 6% to 7%, reflecting our better-than-expected performance in quarter 1, which continued to demonstrate price realization and solid momentum across our portfolio. We maintain our assumption for decelerating growth as the year progresses, which reflects a likely return of elasticity towards historical levels as well as lapping a particularly substantial revenue growth management actions in the second half of last year.

我們將有機淨銷售額增長的指引上調至 6% 至 7%，反映出我們在第一季度的業績好於預期，這繼續表明我們的產品組合實現了價格實現和穩健的勢頭。我們維持我們對隨著時間的推移增長放緩的假設，這反映出彈性可能恢復到歷史水平，並且在去年下半年採取了特別重要的收入增長管理措施。

This 6% to 7% organic growth is well above our long-term target. We are raising our guidance for adjusted operating profit growth to 8% to 10% on a currency-neutral basis. This percentage point increase to the range reflects our stronger-than-expected quarter 1. We feel increasingly confident in our ability to improve margins this year, which combined with our above-target net sales growth will deliver operating profit growth that is also above our long-term target. Based on that improved operating profit outlook, we are raising our adjusted earnings per share guidance as well, now looking for a year-on-year decline of 1% to 3%.

這 6% 至 7% 的有機增長遠高於我們的長期目標。在貨幣中性的基礎上，我們將調整後的營業利潤增長指引提高至 8% 至 10%。這一百分比的增加反映了我們第一季度強於預期。我們對今年提高利潤率的能力越來越有信心，再加上我們高於目標的淨銷售額增長將帶來也高於我們預期的營業利潤增長長期目標。基於改善的營業利潤前景，我們也提高了調整後的每股收益指引，目前預計同比下降 1% 至 3%。

Remember that this decline is more than explained by the year-on-year reduction in pension and post-retirement income, a non-operating, non-cash item that is expected to have a negative impact of nearly 7 percentage points on EPS this year. The negative impact of higher interest expense due to higher interest rates in the economy is another 4% plus. If it weren't for those 2 macro related impacts, our guidance for EPS would be well above our long-term growth target.

請記住，這種下降的原因不僅僅是養老金和退休後收入的同比減少，這是一項非經營性非現金項目，預計今年將對每股收益產生近 7 個百分點的負面影響.經濟中利率升高導致利息支出增加的負面影響再增加 4%。如果不是這兩個宏觀相關的影響，我們對 EPS 的指導將遠高於我們的長期增長目標。

Our guidance for cash flow remains at $1 billion to $1.1 billion. Recall that within this guidance, we are expecting a year-on-year increase in our underlying cash flow, offset by one-time cash costs and capital related to the spin-off.

我們對現金流的指導仍為 10 億至 11 億美元。回想一下，在本指南中，我們預計我們的基礎現金流量將同比增長，但會被一次性現金成本和與分拆相關的資本所抵消。

So to summarize our financial position, sustained price realization continue to generate strong top line growth around the world and across our category groups. We like how our businesses are performing, and we have confidence in our full year sales outlook.

因此，總結我們的財務狀況，持續的價格實現繼續在全球和我們的類別組中產生強勁的收入增長。我們喜歡我們的業務表現，我們對全年銷售前景充滿信心。

Productivity and revenue growth management actions, along with diminishing bottlenecks and shortages and improving service levels have gotten us off to a good start towards improving our profit margins. Our financial flexibility is strong, marked by a solid balance sheet and cash flow that remains in good shape even with some adverse timing in the first 3 months. Our guidance for 2023 has moved higher, continuing to expect net sales growth and operating profit growth that are above our long-term targets.

生產力和收入增長管理措施，以及瓶頸和短缺的減少以及服務水平的提高，使我們在提高利潤率方面有了一個良好的開端。我們的財務靈活性很強，以穩健的資產負債表和現金流為標誌，即使在前 3 個月出現一些不利的時機，仍保持良好狀態。我們對 2023 年的指引已經上調，預計淨銷售額增長和營業利潤增長將繼續高於我們的長期目標。

The fast start of quarter 1 gives us that much more confidence in this full year outlook, even giving us some flexibility relative to readying ourselves for the spin-off. We continue to make good progress on setting up both Kellanova and W.K. Kellogg for financial success.

第一季度的快速開始讓我們對全年前景更有信心，甚至讓我們在為分拆做好準備方面有一些靈活性。我們在建立 Kellanova 和 W.K. 方面繼續取得良好進展。家樂氏財務上的成功。

In addition to carving out of their financials, we are managing upfront expenditures, minimizing stand-alone costs for W.K. Kellogg and stranded margin for Kellanova and we are ensuring solid capital structures and financial flexibility for both.

除了削減他們的財務外，我們還管理前期支出，最大限度地減少 W.K. 的獨立成本。 Kellogg 和 Kellanova 的滯留利潤，我們正在確保兩者穩固的資本結構和財務靈活性。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Steve to walk you through our individual businesses.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給史蒂夫，讓你了解我們的各個業務。

Thanks, Amit. We'll organize our discussion around the businesses that will comprise Kellanova and W.K. Kellogg.

謝謝，阿米特。我們將圍繞包括 Kellanova 和 W.K. 在內的企業組織討論。凱洛格。

Slide #20 reminds you of the composition of the 2 businesses. And on the slide, you can see how our top line momentum in quarter 1 continued to expand across our portfolio with both Kellanova and W.K. Kellogg posting double-digit organic net sales growth. Clearly, we are heading into the spin-off with good momentum.

幻燈片 #20 讓您想起這 2 家企業的組成。在幻燈片上，您可以看到我們在第一季度的收入勢頭如何繼續擴大我們與 Kellanova 和 W.K. 的投資組合。家樂氏發布了兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。顯然，我們正以良好的勢頭進入分拆。

Let's start by discussing the Kellanova businesses, leading off with our emerging markets regions.

讓我們從討論 Kellanova 業務開始，從我們的新興市場區域開始。

Slide #21 shows the financial performance of our EMEA region. As you can see, this region sustained its exceptional momentum in the first quarter, posting a third consecutive quarter of organic net sales growth of at least 20%. And equally impressive, it expanded its operating profit margin and accelerated its operating profit growth to 21% year-on-year and all this in spite of exceedingly high cost inflation and reinvestment into the business.

幻燈片 #21 顯示了我們 EMEA 地區的財務業績。如您所見，該地區在第一季度保持了非凡的勢頭，連續第三個季度實現至少 20% 的有機淨銷售額增長。同樣令人印象深刻的是，它擴大了營業利潤率並將營業利潤同比增長加速至 21%，儘管成本通脹和對業務的再投資極高。

Let's break the region down into key category groups, starting with Snacks on Slide #22. EMEA Snacks posted yet another quarter of explosive top line growth in the first quarter growing net sales in an organic rate of 26% year-on-year. This growth was broad-based across all of our major subregions and it was led by its biggest brand, Pringles.

讓我們將該區域分解為關鍵類別組，從幻燈片 #22 上的零食開始。 EMEA Snacks 在第一季度又實現了另一個季度的爆炸性收入增長，淨銷售額同比增長 26%。這種增長在我們所有的主要次區域都有廣泛的基礎，並且由其最大的品牌品客薯片引領。

In market, Pringles continues to significantly outpace the high-teens growth of the salty snacks category in the region with notable growth and share gains in markets like Australia, Korea, Japan and Thailand.

在市場上，品客薯片繼續顯著超過該地區鹹味零食類別的十幾歲增長，在澳大利亞、韓國、日本和泰國等市場的增長和份額增長顯著。

EMEA Cereal also sustained strong momentum. As shown on Slide #23, this business delivered double-digit organic net sales growth again in the first quarter. And this growth was broad-based with growth across each of our major subregions, Asia, Australia, Africa and the Middle East, North Africa, Turkey region.

EMEA 穀物也保持強勁勢頭。如幻燈片 #23 所示，該業務在第一季度再次實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。這種增長基礎廣泛，我們每個主要次區域、亞洲、澳大利亞、非洲和中東、北非、土耳其區域都有增長。

In market, we have outpaced the cereal category's mid-single-digit consumption growth in the region, which brings us to noodles and other in Slide #24. Led by Multipro in Nigeria, this business continued to deliver organic net sales growth in excess of 20% in the first quarter. Even amidst high inflation and a currency demonetization initiative Multipro continued to thrive, clear evidence of its competitive advantage and experienced management team.

在市場上，我們已經超過了該地區穀物類別的中個位數消費增長，這將我們帶到了幻燈片 #24 中的麵條和其他產品。在尼日利亞的 Multipro 的帶領下，該業務在第一季度繼續實現超過 20% 的有機淨銷售額增長。即使在高通脹和貨幣非貨幣化倡議的情況下，Multipro 仍繼續蓬勃發展，這清楚地證明了其競爭優勢和經驗豐富的管理團隊。

Meanwhile, we continue to expand our Kellogg Noodles business outside of Nigeria. So clearly, Kellogg EMEA is firing on all cylinders. For the full year, we continue to expect sustained momentum across all 3 category groups delivering yet another year of organic net sales growth all while improving our profit margins.

與此同時，我們繼續將 Kellogg Noodles 業務擴展到尼日利亞以外的地區。很明顯，Kellogg EMEA 正在火力全開。對於全年，我們繼續預計所有 3 個類別組的持續增長勢頭將帶來又一年的有機淨銷售額增長，同時提高我們的利潤率。

Now let's discuss Latin America, starting on Slide #26. Kellogg Latin America in the first quarter delivered another quarter of double-digit organic net sales growth. This growth was led by Mexico, but we also saw strong growth in Brazil, in our Central America, and Caribbean subregion. We expanded our operating margin in the first quarter, helping to grow our operating profit by 20% year-on-year, albeit lapping notably high costs in the year earlier quarter.

現在讓我們從幻燈片 #26 開始討論拉丁美洲。家樂氏拉丁美洲公司在第一季度又實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。這一增長由墨西哥引領，但我們也看到巴西、中美洲和加勒比次區域的強勁增長。我們在第一季度擴大了營業利潤率，幫助我們的營業利潤同比增長 20%，儘管去年同期的成本明顯很高。

Our snacks business in Latin America continued to deliver double-digit organic net sales growth, as shown on Slide #27. This growth was led by Pringles with notably strong growth in Mexico and Brazil. In market, the salty snacks category sustained double-digit growth in those 2 markets and Pringles gained share in both. We also have kept pace with a very strong portable wholesome snacks category in Mexico and stabilized our share in cookies in Brazil.

我們在拉丁美洲的零食業務繼續實現兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長，如幻燈片 #27 所示。這一增長由品客薯片引領，墨西哥和巴西的增長尤為強勁。在市場上，鹹味零食類別在這兩個市場中保持了兩位數的增長，而品客薯片在這兩個市場中的份額均有所增加。我們還跟上了墨西哥非常強大的便攜式健康零食類別的步伐，並穩定了我們在巴西的餅乾市場份額。

Kellogg Latin America also recorded double-digit organic net sales growth in cereal as shown on Slide #28. This growth was broad-based with good growth across each of our subregions. In market, category growth rates remained robust in the region, and our consumption has kept pace in Mexico and gained share in Brazil and Puerto Rico.

如幻燈片 #28 所示，家樂氏拉丁美洲公司的穀物有機淨銷售額也實現了兩位數的增長。這種增長是廣泛的，我們每個次區域都有良好的增長。在市場方面，該地區的品類增長率保持強勁，我們的消費在墨西哥保持同步，並在巴西和波多黎各獲得份額。

So Latin America continues to perform well. And for the year, we continue to expect this region to sustain strong top line momentum. It will be led by snacks, but also by growth in cereal, with both supported by strong innovation and relevant brand news. We also expect Latin America to improve its profit margins this year, and it plans to do all this while working on separating its Caribbean cereal business as part of the spin-off. So both of our emerging markets regions are showing current momentum to go with their outstanding long-term prospects.

因此拉丁美洲繼續表現良好。今年，我們繼續預計該地區將保持強勁的營收勢頭。它將由零食引領，但也由穀物的增長帶動，兩者都得到強大的創新和相關品牌新聞的支持。我們還預計拉丁美洲今年將提高其利潤率，並且它計劃在完成所有這些工作的同時，將其加勒比穀物業務作為分拆的一部分。因此，我們的兩個新興市場地區都顯示出當前的勢頭，以配合其出色的長期前景。

Now let's turn to our developed markets, starting with Kellogg Europe in Slide #30. Here, we continued to post strong 8% organic net sales growth in quarter 1 with organic growth across our categories, salty snacks, wholesome snacks and cereal.

現在讓我們轉向發達市場，從幻燈片 #30 中的 Kellogg Europe 開始。在這裡，我們在第一季度繼續實現強勁的 8% 有機淨銷售額增長，我們的類別、鹹味零食、有益健康的零食和麥片均實現有機增長。

The Kellogg Europe net sales growth would have been in the double digits, where it's not for Russia, which we are in the process of divesting.

Kellogg Europe 的淨銷售額增長本來可以達到兩位數，而不是俄羅斯，我們正在剝離俄羅斯。

Operating profit declined slightly year-on-year, but it was comparing against an unusually strong year earlier quarter. In addition, if we were to exclude the Russia business, Kellogg Europe's operating profit would have been up year-on-year in the high single digits. So our underlying European business is performing very well.

營業利潤同比略有下降，但與去年同期異常強勁的情況相比。此外，如果我們排除俄羅斯業務，家樂氏歐洲公司的營業利潤將以高個位數同比增長。因此，我們的基礎歐洲業務表現非常好。

In Snacks, which represents just over half of our sales in Kellogg Europe, we posted another strong quarter as shown on Slide #31.

零食占我們家樂氏歐洲銷售額的一半以上，我們發布了另一個強勁的季度，如幻燈片 #31 所示。

In fact, the first quarter marked the 7th quarter in the last 9 in which we have posted double-digit growth in our European Snacks business. Specifically, our organic net sales growth accelerated sequentially in the first quarter to 14% year-on-year. And this growth would have been almost twice that if it were not for Russia.

事實上，第一季度是過去 9 個季度中的第 7 個季度，我們的歐洲零食業務實現了兩位數的增長。具體而言，我們的有機淨銷售額在第一季度環比加速增長，同比增長 14%。如果沒有俄羅斯，這種增長幾乎是兩倍。

In market, Pringles has sustained its double-digit growth momentum, gaining share in the region led by the United Kingdom and France. And in portable wholesome snacks, we are experiencing double-digit consumption growth overall, and we have gained 2 full share points in the U.K., led by Rice Krispies Squares.

在市場上，品客薯片保持了兩位數的增長勢頭，在以英國和法國為首的地區獲得了份額。在便攜式健康零食方面，我們的整體消費量實現了兩位數的增長，並且在 Rice Krispies Squares 的帶領下，我們在英國獲得了 2 個完整的市場份額。

Our cereal business in Europe also sustained growth in the first quarter, as shown on Slide #32. The growth was slower than recent quarters as we have seen rising price elasticity as well as intentional reduction of certain less profitable merchandising activities. Nevertheless, we continue to execute well in a challenging market.

我們在歐洲的穀物業務在第一季度也保持增長，如幻燈片 #32 所示。由於我們看到價格彈性上升以及某些利潤較低的商品活動有意減少，因此增長速度低於最近幾個季度。儘管如此，我們在充滿挑戰的市場中繼續表現出色。

So when we look at the full year for Kellogg Europe, we continue to expect the region to post another year of solid top line growth led by Snacks. In fact, this should be a 6th consecutive year of organic net sales growth in our European Snacks business.

因此，當我們回顧 Kellogg Europe 的全年時，我們繼續預計該地區將在 Snacks 的帶領下實現又一年的穩健收入增長。事實上，這應該是我們歐洲零食業務連續第 6 年實現有機淨銷售額增長。

As mentioned previously, we are navigating through cost and supply pressures, which are particularly heavy in the first half. And we are in the process of divesting our Russia business, a transaction that is contingent on Russian government approval.

如前所述，我們正在應對成本和供應壓力，這些壓力在上半年尤為沈重。我們正在剝離我們的俄羅斯業務，這項交易取決於俄羅斯政府的批准。

And now we'll turn to Kellogg North America, beginning with Slide #34. As you can see, it was a very strong quarter for Kellogg North America. We recorded organic net sales growth of 14% with price/mix accelerating for a fourth consecutive quarter as we continue to implement revenue growth management actions in order to catch up with input cost inflation.

現在我們將轉向 Kellogg North America，從幻燈片 #34 開始。如您所見，這是凱洛格北美的一個非常強勁的季度。由於我們繼續實施收入增長管理措施以趕上投入成本通脹，我們的有機淨銷售額增長了 14%，價格/產品組合連續第四個季度加速增長。

This revenue growth management, along with productivity and diminishing bottlenecks and shortages enabled an expansion in profit margins that drove operating profit up 21% year-on-year. Importantly, we again generated organic net sales growth in all 3 category groups during the first quarter.

這種收入增長管理，加上生產力以及瓶頸和短缺的減少，使利潤率得以擴大，從而推動營業利潤同比增長 21%。重要的是，我們在第一季度再次在所有 3 個類別組中實現了有機淨銷售額增長。

Slide #35 shows how our largest category group, snacks, sustained its net sales momentum by growing 15% in the quarter. In market, Pringles well outpaced the U.S. salty snacks categories double-digit growth, led by our multipacks and our Core 4 flavors.

幻燈片 #35 展示了我們最大的品類集團零食如何在本季度保持其淨銷售額增長 15% 的勢頭。在市場上，品客薯片以我們的多件裝和 Core 4 口味引領美國鹹味零食類別的兩位數增長。

In Crackers, cheese had lapped an exceptionally strong year earlier quarter, but we did see double-digit consumption growth by our Club and Town House brands. And in portable wholesome snacks, our decision to discontinue various Kashi bars and the prioritization of capacity-constrained Pop-Tarts SKUs, masked continued momentum in Rice Krispies Treats and a resurgent Special K bars business.

在餅乾方面，奶酪在去年同期表現異常強勁，但我們確實看到我們的 Club 和 Town House 品牌的消費量實現了兩位數的增長。在便攜式健康零食方面，我們決定停止生產各種 Kashi 巧克力棒，並優先考慮容量受限的 Pop-Tarts SKU，這掩蓋了 Rice Krispies Treats 的持續發展勢頭和復甦的 Special K 巧克力棒業務。

Our frozen foods business also grew net sales in the first quarter, as shown on Slide #36. Here the growth has been more modest in part because of supply disruptions, both in our Eggo Frozen breakfast business and especially in our Morningstar Farms plant-based foods business.

我們的冷凍食品業務在第一季度也實現了淨銷售額增長，如幻燈片 #36 所示。在這裡，增長較為溫和，部分原因是供應中斷，無論是在我們的 Eggo 冷凍早餐業務中，還是在我們的 Morningstar Farms 植物性食品業務中。

Meantime, both Eggo and Morningstar Farms are leading brands with strong commercial programs planned so we are confident in our ability to improve our frozen performance as the year progresses.

與此同時，Eggo 和 Morningstar Farms 都是領先品牌，計劃了強大的商業計劃，因此我們有信心隨著時間的推移提高我們的冷凍性能。

All of the regions and categories we've discussed up to now will be part of Kellanova. And all of them are showing strong and continued net sales growth to go with progress toward recovering margins.

到目前為止我們討論的所有地區和類別都將成為 Kellanova 的一部分。隨著利潤率的恢復，它們都顯示出強勁且持續的淨銷售額增長。

Now we're going to turn to our North America cereal business, which forms the vast majority of what will be W.K. Kellogg Co.

現在我們將轉向我們的北美穀物業務，它構成了 W.K. 的絕大部分。凱洛格公司

As shown on Slide #37, this business continues to recover rapidly and posted another quarter of double-digit organic net sales growth. In the U.S., the cereal category grew at a double-digit rate in the quarter, and we gained nearly 3 points of share year-on-year as our resumed commercial activity is producing share gains across our portfolio led by Rice Krispies, Special K, Raisin Bran and Frosted Flakes. This recovery is evident in our U.S. Away from Home business as well. We gained several points of share across each of our major channels convenience stores, food service and schools.

如幻燈片 #37 所示，該業務繼續快速復蘇，並公佈了又一個季度兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。在美國，穀物類別在本季度以兩位數的速度增長，我們的市場份額同比增長近 3 個百分點，因為我們恢復的商業活動在我們以脆米餅、Special K 為首的產品組合中產生了份額增長、葡萄乾麩皮和糖霜片。這種複蘇在我們的美國外出業務中也很明顯。我們在便利店、餐飲服務和學校的每個主要渠道中都獲得了幾個份額。

And in Canada, where the restoration of inventory has come a bit more recently, our consumption growth was even more pronounced, and we gained roughly 6 points of share year-on-year. So the recovery continues in our North America cereal business.

而在庫存恢復較晚的加拿大，我們的消費增長更為明顯，同比增長了大約6個百分點。因此，我們的北美穀物業務繼續復甦。

Turning to Slide #38, our North America region is off to a strong start in 2023, giving us confidence in the full year. Snacks is expected to sustain its momentum, while we have plans in place to improve our performance in frozen. And our North America cereal business continues its recovery. We are off to a good start on our margin recovery in North America even as we reinvest in our brands. So the business is in good shape as we set up for the spin-off of W.K. Kellogg.

轉到幻燈片 #38，我們的北美地區在 2023 年開局良好，讓我們對全年充滿信心。預計零食將保持其勢頭，同時我們已製定計劃以提高我們在冷凍業務中的表現。我們的北美穀物業務繼續復甦。即使我們對我們的品牌進行再投資，我們在北美的利潤率恢復方面也有了一個良好的開端。因此，在我們為 W.K. 的分拆做準備時，業務狀況良好。凱洛格。

So let me summarize on Slide #40. We're off to a very strong start to this year. Around the world and across our key categories and brands, we have clearly sustained growth momentum. And our profit margins impacted over the last 18 months by accelerated input cost inflation, economy-wide bottlenecks and shortages and even if fire and strikes are starting to recover. These underlying trends with a strong first quarter already in the books are what give us increased confidence in a raised full year outlook that had already called for sales and profit growth above our long-term targets.

那麼讓我總結一下幻燈片 #40。今年我們的開局非常強勁。在全球範圍內，在我們的主要品類和品牌中，我們明顯保持著持續的增長勢頭。在過去的 18 個月裡，我們的利潤率受到加速的投入成本通脹、整個經濟的瓶頸和短缺的影響，即使火災和罷工開始恢復。第一季度強勁表現的這些潛在趨勢使我們對提高的全年前景更有信心，這已經要求銷售額和利潤增長超過我們的長期目標。

But while we are executing our plan and delivering on our current year results, we are also busy creating the future. This includes most notably our planned spin-off of our North America cereal business. We are full steam ahead on this work. As we work through every detail of this important undertaking, we have become only more confident that this will create real value for our shareowners.

但是，在我們執行計劃並實現當年業績的同時，我們也在忙於創造未來。其中最引人注目的包括我們計劃分拆北美穀物業務。我們正在全力推進這項工作。當我們研究這項重要事業的每一個細節時，我們只會更加相信這將為我們的股東創造真正的價值。

We'll have a more focused W.K. Kellogg able to leverage its scale in North America cereal with a fit-for-purpose strategy, expertise and resource allocation. And we'll have greater visibility into a global snacking-oriented Kellanova that has been and will continue to be delivering above-average financial performance.

我們將有一個更專注的 W.K.家樂氏能夠通過適合目的的戰略、專業知識和資源分配來利用其在北美穀物市場的規模。我們將更深入地了解以零食為導向的全球 Kellanova，該公司已經並將繼續提供高於平均水平的財務業績。

I couldn't be more proud of and grateful for our team members around the world who are executing with agility and passion amidst an external environment that remains incredibly dynamic.

我為我們在世界各地的團隊成員感到無比自豪和感激，他們在充滿活力的外部環境中以敏捷和熱情的方式執行任務。

And with that, we'll open up the line for questions.

有了這個，我們將打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from the line of David Palmer from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

A question on gross spending. I would imagine this is the year that you're getting past a lot of supply chains, both -- supply chain issues, both upstream and within the company. And I'm wondering if you could just talk to where the biggest growth spending energy is being applied, whether that's advertising and promotion and innovation and areas of the world and parts of the business?

關於總支出的問題。我想今年你將通過很多供應鏈，包括上游和公司內部的供應鏈問題。我想知道你是否可以談談最大的增長支出能量正在應用的地方，無論是廣告、促銷和創新，還是世界和部分業務領域？

I want to make sure I understand the question. But in terms of reinvesting in the business, we are certainly investing in brand building. There's no question about that. We're investing in innovation, and we're investing in capacity. And so we are obviously coming out of the pandemic and the supply disruptions, the bottlenecks and shortages as so many other companies are. And we're investing for growth. And you see that. You see that in our upgraded guidance for the top line. You see that in the better service levels that we're delivering to our customers. You see that in Pringles expansion around the world, which requires CapEx. And so it's really in those main areas. And again, if I understood the question, that's essentially where we're looking to deploy those resources.

我想確保我理解這個問題。但就業務再投資而言，我們當然是在投資品牌建設。毫無疑問。我們正在投資於創新，我們正在投資於能力。因此，我們顯然正在擺脫大流行病和供應中斷、瓶頸和短缺，就像許多其他公司一樣。我們正在為增長而投資。你看到了。您可以在我們升級後的頂線指南中看到這一點。您可以在我們為客戶提供的更好的服務水平中看到這一點。您會在品客全球擴張中看到這一點，這需要資本支出。所以它真的在那些主要領域。再一次，如果我理解這個問題，那基本上就是我們要部署這些資源的地方。

Yes. I mean, I guess, I'm just looking for examples and metrics with regard to the number of new products, the ability for you to get those things on the shelf and whether you're going to be layering in promotion spending as you go through this year. I think there's some concern that volumes in this space don't improve or don't hold up through the year as pricing rolls off. So these types of things can help people feel better about those volume metrics as you get later in the year.

是的。我的意思是，我想，我只是在尋找關於新產品數量的例子和指標，你把這些東西放在貨架上的能力，以及你是否會在促銷支出中分層通過這一年。我認為有人擔心隨著價格的下降，這一領域的銷量不會增加或不會在今年保持不變。因此，這些類型的事情可以幫助人們在今年晚些時候對這些數量指標感覺更好。

Yes. I see, David. So I have heard some of the commentary around promotions and so forth. But brand building is up, innovation is up. And this notion that merchandising is returning to pre-pandemic levels. We're not quite there yet, but it's improving. And remember, merchandising, which some see is 1 element of the outcome of price promotion, gets your product out on the floor, gets your consumers interrupted in their shopping patterns and we see it as a good thing.

是的。我明白了，大衛。所以我聽到了一些關於促銷等的評論。但是品牌建設在進行，創新在進行。這種商品銷售正在恢復到大流行前水平的觀念。我們還沒有到那一步，但它正在改善。請記住，一些人認為商品推銷是價格促銷結果的一個要素，它可以讓您的產品上架，讓您的消費者中斷他們的購物模式，我們認為這是一件好事。

In terms of just going forward in innovation, the bar of innovation, I've said this in the past, has clearly gone up as SKU counts went down during the pandemic. So that's been raised. And we are very pleased with our top line performance. We're pleased with our ability to raise that guidance. And we're pleased with our margins where they are in the recovery in margins.

就創新的進步而言，我過去說過，隨著大流行期間 SKU 數量的減少，創新的門檻明顯上升了。所以已經提出來了。我們對我們的頂級表現感到非常滿意。我們很高興能夠提出該指導意見。我們對我們的利潤率感到滿意，他們正在恢復利潤率。

So all that being said, I think the environment is a good environment. It's an environment that we're being successful in, we're being competitive in. And I think it's a positive environment as we look into the future.

綜上所述，我認為環境是一個很好的環境。這是一個我們在其中取得成功、我們在其中具有競爭力的環境。而且我認為，當我們展望未來時，這是一個積極的環境。

The next question today comes from the line of Andrew Lazar from Barclays.

今天的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

Steve, I guess, I've got a bit of a higher-level industry question for you. It looks as though we may finally be heading in earnest towards a more normal operating environment following 3-plus years of all of the anomalous dynamics. And I guess, I'm curious how you think this transition for the group to normalcy will look? Again not just for Kellogg, but for the industry as a whole.

史蒂夫，我想，我有一個更高層次的行業問題要問你。在經歷了 3 年多的異常動態之後，我們似乎終於可以認真地走向一個更正常的運營環境。我想，我很好奇你認為這個群體向常態的轉變會是什麼樣子？同樣，不僅對家樂氏而言，而且對整個行業而言。

I guess, in other words, do you think this transition to normalcy can be made in a somewhat orderly way? Or should investors have their expectations in check, maybe potentially for more uneven results for some time as pricing has lapped and perhaps it takes more time for volumes to pivot more positively?

我想，換句話說，你認為這種向常態的轉變可以以某種有序的方式進行嗎？或者投資者是否應該檢查他們的預期，可能會在一段時間內出現更不平衡的結果，因為定價已經結束，也許需要更多時間才能讓交易量更積極地轉向？

Basically, I'm just trying to assess whether we see more of like a hard or a soft landing, if you will, for food manufacturers as we kind of move into the more normal operating phase, if you will.

基本上，我只是想評估我們是否看到更像是硬著陸或軟著陸，如果你願意的話，對於食品製造商，因為我們有點進入更正常的運營階段，如果你願意的話。

I love some of the words you used in their normal and predictable and soft landing. Clearly, we've come through the last 3-plus years in -- facing all these unprecedented challenges. We said as Kellogg that we would exit the pandemic a stronger company.

我喜歡你在正常、可預測和軟著陸時使用的一些詞。顯然，我們已經度過了過去 3 年多的時間——面對所有這些前所未有的挑戰。作為 Kellogg，我們曾說過，我們將以一家更強大的公司退出大流行。

And many of our competitors said the same thing, and we certainly have. And I think that puts us and the industry in a good position to actually come into this next kind of era, if you like, in a much stronger fashion without some of the disruptions and challenges that you alluded to.

我們的許多競爭對手也說過同樣的話，我們當然也說過。我認為這使我們和整個行業處於有利地位，可以真正進入下一個時代，如果你願意的話，以一種更強大的方式，而不會出現你提到的一些中斷和挑戰。

I mentioned to David in the earlier comment, the Bard innovation has been raised. That is unquestionable. There is no question that innovations have to be better. They have to be performing right out of the gate. Shelf space is more valuable than it's ever been today in my years in the business. Supply chains have had to become more agile. There's no question about that. Our supply chains have all been challenged to the degree they never have before.

我在之前的評論中向大衛提到過，巴德的創新已經被提出來了。這是毋庸置疑的。毫無疑問，創新必須更好。他們必須在一開始就表現出色。在我從業多年以來，貨架空間比今天任何時候都更有價值。供應鏈必須變得更加靈活。毫無疑問。我們的供應鏈都受到了前所未有的挑戰。

They've become more agile, but they've also used and utilized new technologies. We're deploying technologies like artificial intelligence, machine learning. We're getting better and better at predictive really end-to-end. The relationships with our customers, I think, again, during the pandemic, it was about how do we serve our consumers, our joint consumers in ways that we never had to face before. We had all sorts of challenges with respect to that. But now supply chains have come through stronger as well and the relationships with consumers, I think, are more end-to-end than they've ever been before.

他們變得更加敏捷，但他們也使用並利用了新技術。我們正在部署人工智能、機器學習等技術。我們在真正端到端的預測方面做得越來越好。我認為，在大流行期間，我們與客戶的關係再次關乎我們如何以前所未有的方式服務我們的消費者，我們的共同消費者。我們在這方面遇到了各種各樣的挑戰。但現在供應鏈也變得更加強大，我認為與消費者的關係比以往任何時候都更加端到端。

And so looking to eliminate friction is something that we talk to our customers all the time about joint business plans, start with how do you eliminate waste end-to-end, how do you grow the size of the prize while we serve the common consumer.

因此，我們一直在與客戶討論聯合業務計劃，希望消除摩擦，從如何端到端地消除浪費開始，如何在我們為普通消費者服務的同時增加獎品的規模.

And I guess the final thing I'd say is the whole world of marketing has changed like it never has before. The true promise of one-to-one marketing that we've been talking about for so many years is upon us with data and analytics, more sophisticated than they've ever been, first-party data, more robust and more available than it's ever been to really target consumers in a way that marketers have dreamed up for years.

我想我最後要說的是整個營銷世界已經發生了前所未有的變化。多年來我們一直在談論的一對一營銷的真正承諾在於數據和分析，比以往任何時候都更複雜，第一方數據，比現在更強大和更可用曾經以營銷人員多年來夢寐以求的方式真正瞄準消費者。

And so you put all these things together, and it's not 1987 anymore. I think it is a really -- it's not to be too rosy about it, but it's a new morning. And it's, I think, a very, very promising outlook as we look towards how our industry and how Kellogg will perform in the future. We're very optimistic about the future for all of those reasons.

所以你把所有這些東西放在一起，現在已經不是 1987 年了。我認為這確實是——不要對此過於樂觀，但這是一個新的早晨。我認為，當我們展望我們的行業和 Kellogg 未來的表現時，這是一個非常非常有希望的前景。由於所有這些原因，我們對未來非常樂觀。

The next question today comes from the line of Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.

今天的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Amit, I wanted to just ask a little bit about inflation. I'm not sure, I might have missed it, but did you give us an update on where cost of goods inflation was in the quarter and what you're expecting, I guess, for the balance of the year? And maybe if you can just give us a little bit of color on kind of what's moving in each direction. I think we're beginning to see some relief on like resins, some packaging costs. So just if you can just sort of unpack for us a little bit just kind of the COGS basket. Where it stands and kind of what we should be looking at as we go forward?

阿米特，我只想問一點關於通貨膨脹的問題。我不確定，我可能錯過了它，但是您是否向我們提供了本季度商品成本通脹的最新情況以及您對今年餘下時間的預期？也許如果你能給我們一些關於每個方向移動的顏色。我認為我們開始看到一些類似樹脂的緩解，一些包裝成本。因此，只要您能為我們打開一些 COGS 籃子的包裝。在我們前進的過程中，它的立場和我們應該關注的是什麼？

Sure. So I think, if you look at cost came in largely in line with expectations from a commodity standpoint. I think our outlook for the year continues to be mid-teens inflation. So no significant change than what we had talked in our last call. Certainly, there are some movement in some commodities. But like we've talked previously, we obviously have a hedging program. So some of that would flow through as hedges roll across.

當然。所以我認為，如果你從商品的角度來看成本，基本上符合預期。我認為我們今年的前景仍然是十幾歲中期的通貨膨脹。因此，與我們在上次電話會議中討論的內容相比，沒有重大變化。當然，某些商品有一些變動。但就像我們之前談過的那樣，我們顯然有一個對沖計劃。因此，其中一些會隨著對沖而流過。

Very pleased with the performance in the first quarter. I mean, if you look at our gross profit dollars, they were up 16% on a currency-neutral basis. So strong double-digit growth in our gross profit dollars.

對第一季度的表現非常滿意。我的意思是，如果你看一下我們的毛利潤美元，它們在貨幣中性的基礎上增長了 16%。我們的毛利潤以兩位數的速度強勁增長。

No question aided by the fire and strike in quarter 1. But even if you look at it from a full year standpoint, I think based on our quarter 1 performance, we are now saying that our gross profit dollars would be slightly ahead of our net sales growth. So we had talked previously of flattish gross margins for the year. I think based on what we're seeing right now, we expect our gross margins to be up slightly for the year.

毫無疑問，第一季度的火災和罷工幫助了我們。但即使你從全年的角度來看，我認為根據我們第一季度的表現，我們現在說我們的毛利潤將略高於我們的淨利潤銷售增長。因此，我們之前曾談到今年的毛利率持平。我認為，根據我們目前所看到的情況，我們預計今年的毛利率會略有上升。

And just as we're thinking about the flow of that, does the inflation moderate as the year goes on? Or is it pretty steady through the year?

就在我們考慮流量的時候，通貨膨脹會隨著時間的推移而緩和嗎？還是全年都很穩定？

I think the -- I'd say, overall, it's in the mid-teens inflation. I think the lap would moderate in the second half. Because that's when we saw commodities kept going up last year. So you'll start lapping that in the second half. So the year-on-year moderation will certainly be more back half weighted.

我認為 - 我會說，總的來說，這是在十幾歲中期的通貨膨脹。我認為下半場的圈速會有所緩和。因為那是我們去年看到大宗商品持續上漲的時候。所以你會在下半場開始打磨它。因此，同比緩和肯定會更後半加權。

The next question today comes from the line of Ken Goldman from JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

I wanted to ask a quick question on LatAm. The volumes were down year-on-year. I think by the largest negative number in a few years. Obviously, a lot of that was to be expected given the pricing. But just sequentially, pricing wasn't up quite as much as 4Q was. And the volume comp, it wasn't, I guess, that burdensome. So I'm just curious how you think about that particular region? Some of the tonnage numbers we're seeing there and how that relates to the, maybe the previous questions about leaning into promotions a little bit more?

我想問一個關於 LatAm 的快速問題。銷量同比下降。我認為是幾年來最大的負數。顯然，考慮到定價，其中很多都是可以預期的。但就順序而言，定價並沒有像第四季度那樣上漲。我想，音量補償並沒有那麼麻煩。所以我很好奇你是如何看待那個特定地區的？我們在那裡看到的一些噸位數字，以及它與之前關於更傾向於促銷的問題有何關係？

I'd start with overall very positively disposed to our results in Latin America. When you look at the disruption and you look at from a macroeconomic standpoint and all the things that are challenging in emerging markets in general, Latin America has been a pretty kind of steady place to be for the last several years up until about 2 years ago where we started to see a return to some of the macroeconomic challenges, the geopolitical challenges and so forth.

我首先對我們在拉丁美洲的結果總體上非常積極。當你審視顛覆，從宏觀經濟的角度以及新興市場總體上面臨的所有挑戰時，拉丁美洲在過去幾年一直是一個相當穩定的地方，直到大約 2 年前我們開始看到一些宏觀經濟挑戰、地緣政治挑戰等的回歸。

So with that, we're very pleased with our performance. But we are seeing a rise in elasticity in Latin America. And that's no surprise. You see very high price increases to overcome the input cost inflation, and it's worsened by transactional ForEx over the past several quarters as well. It's been most pronounced in cereal, but we continue to perform well in cereal, in Mexico, especially big cereal business.

因此，我們對我們的表現非常滿意。但我們看到拉丁美洲的彈性正在上升。這並不奇怪。你會看到非常高的價格上漲以克服投入成本通脹，並且在過去幾個季度中交易 ForEx 也使情況惡化。這在穀物中最為明顯，但我們在墨西哥的穀物方面繼續表現良好，尤其是大型穀物業務。

And then when you look at our Pringles business in key markets, are doing very well. Obviously, we added some capacity a couple of years ago in Brazil, put some lines of Pringles in. Pringles continues to perform very well in Latin America. So our outlook for Latin America remains strong. We're pleased with the performance there. But it's obviously an emerging market. So it comes with some volatility.

然後當你看看我們在主要市場的品客薯片業務時，表現非常好。顯然，幾年前我們在巴西增加了一些產能，放入了一些品客薯片生產線。品客薯片在拉丁美洲繼續表現良好。因此，我們對拉丁美洲的前景依然樂觀。我們對那裡的表現很滿意。但它顯然是一個新興市場。所以它帶有一些波動性。

The next question today comes from the line of Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

今天的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

The comment you made earlier, Steve, about Cereal Kellogg or W.K. Kellogg and Kellanova. I think it's (inaudible) maybe not the (inaudible) at the end. But is that business effectively being stood up and running independently in the third quarter? It was interesting. How much functional overlap will there still be? And I guess what I'm kind of aiming at here is it sounds like you may actually be -- we're all breaking out about like how big the stranded cost? And separation is going to be -- what's the incremental cost going to be, it sounds like you may actually be absorbing a lot of that in this year's guidance. Is that right?

Steve，你之前對 Cereal Kellogg 或 W.K. 的評論。凱洛格和凱拉諾瓦。我認為它（聽不清）可能不是最後的（聽不清）。但該業務是否在第三季度有效地獨立運行？很有意思。還會有多少功能重疊？我想我在這裡的目標是聽起來你可能真的是——我們都在討論擱淺成本有多大？分離將是——增量成本是多少，聽起來你可能實際上在今年的指導中吸收了很多。是對的嗎？

That is right. That is right, Jason. That is in our guidance, the incremental cost to standing that up. We're doing something called company and company, which is essentially running water through the pipes so that we make sure that when we do spin-off the business, it's ready to go.

沒錯。沒錯，傑森。在我們的指導下，這是堅持下去的增量成本。我們正在做一些叫做公司和公司的事情，這基本上是通過管道流水，這樣我們就可以確保當我們分拆業務時，它已經準備好了。

And what I'd say in terms of stranded costs, stranged margin, obviously, that's coming but any kind of -- the way you portray that, I would say, we're very confident, very confident in our ability to stand up these 2 companies with strong capital structures and very strong outlooks. And so I think many investors will be quite pleased when they see us come in the summer time during our Investor Day.

我要說的擱淺成本，奇怪的利潤率，顯然，這即將到來，但任何一種 - 我想說的是你描述的方式，我們非常有信心，非常有信心我們有能力經受住這些2 家擁有強大資本結構和非常強勁前景的公司。因此，我認為許多投資者看到我們在夏季的投資者日到來時會非常高興。

We can't say much right now. But I'm very confident that those 2 businesses will be stood up, stood up strong with very strong outlooks. And I think you'll see the value creation and the value unlock will be an aha moment for those who don't quite get it yet.

我們現在不能說太多。但我非常有信心，這兩家企業將站起來，站穩腳跟，前景非常光明。而且我認為你會看到價值創造和價值解鎖對於那些還沒有完全理解的人來說將是一個頓悟的時刻。

The next question today comes from the line of Alexia Howard from Bernstein.

今天的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Alexia Howard。

I think you mentioned at the beginning of the prepared remarks that volume came through a little better than expected. I know it's still down, but it sounded though that was stronger. Can you give us a bit of color about where it was stronger? And do you expect that volume trajectory to improve as price growth flows through the course of the year? Or how much do you expect it to improve?

我想你在準備好的評論開始時提到，成交量比預期的要好一些。我知道它還在下降，但聽起來雖然更強了。你能給我們一些關於它更強的地方的顏色嗎？您是否預計隨著價格在這一年中的增長，銷量軌跡會有所改善？或者你希望它能提高多少？

I'll start, and Amit may want to add. And so volume was clearly better. And if you look at it compared to historical elasticities, it's better everywhere. There's no question about that. And that's not unexpected in a world where inflation is across the board, right? So it's all relative, and you have to think about the relativity of our categories versus more discretionary categories.

我會開始，Amit 可能想補充一下。因此，音量顯然更好。如果你將它與歷史彈性進行比較，它在任何地方都更好。毫無疑問。在通貨膨脹普遍存在的世界裡，這並不意外，對吧？所以這都是相對的，你必須考慮我們的類別與更多自由裁量類別的相對性。

Having said that, very good performance in North America relative to historical elasticities. Very strong performance in EMEA relative to elasticities. I talked about Latin America, where we had elasticities rising a bit more. Europe, you see a lot of noise in there based on Russia and so forth, but a little bit more elasticity there. And so across the board, very good performance, standout performance in North America and EMEA relative to overperforming versus elasticities.

話雖如此，相對於歷史彈性，北美的表現非常好。相對於彈性，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現非常強勁。我談到了拉丁美洲，那裡的彈性略有上升。歐洲，你看到那裡有很多基於俄羅斯等的噪音，但那裡有更多的彈性。因此，在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區，相對於超額表現與彈性而言，表現非常出色，表現出色。

When we think about the back half of the year, the remainder of the year, we are prudently assuming that elasticities start to increase and approach not quite historical levels but on a march towards historical levels. And we think that's just a smart planning assumption. We'll see how it unfolds.

當我們考慮今年下半年，即今年剩餘時間時，我們謹慎地假設彈性開始增加並且不是完全接近歷史水平，而是在向歷史水平邁進。我們認為這只是一個明智的規劃假設。我們將看看它是如何展開的。

The next question today comes from the line of Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

I was actually going to ask a very similar question to the one that Jason answered or asked, I think you answered that one pretty clearly. I guess the only thing I'd tuck on to it maybe is you mentioned -- you cited that both Kellanova and W.K. Kellogg pro forma grew low double digits in the quarter. And I realize you're constrained by giving us too much detail. But just given that disclosure, and I'm thinking about -- as I think about the 6% to 7% full year organic growth guide, is there any way you can frame us a little bit about how you expect those 2 businesses to be contributing to that 6% to 7% on the year, so we can get a little sense of expected momentum as we go into the new regime.

我實際上要問一個與 Jason 回答或提出的問題非常相似的問題，我想你已經很清楚地回答了那個問題。我想我唯一想強調的可能是你提到的——你提到了 Kellanova 和 W.K.家樂氏預計本季度增長兩位數。我知道你給我們提供了太多細節而受到限制。但考慮到這一披露，我正在考慮——當我考慮 6% 到 7% 的全年有機增長指南時，有沒有什麼方法可以讓我們了解一下您對這兩項業務的期望貢獻了今年的 6% 到 7%，因此我們可以在進入新制度時對預期的勢頭有所了解。

Yes. I'd say, Steve, we've got great momentum in both businesses. I think you've seen the results of Kellanova, good broad-based growth across all our categories, both in the U.S., internationally and across our categories as well. I think in North America cereal, we're very pleased with the recovery that we are seeing there from a share standpoint, and that would continue to be the focus for the rest of the year. So there's good momentum across both the businesses.

是的。我會說，史蒂夫，我們在這兩項業務上都有很大的發展勢頭。我想你已經看到了 Kellanova 的成果，我們所有類別的基礎廣泛的良好增長，無論是在美國、國際上還是在我們的類別中。我認為在北美穀物，我們對從份額的角度看到的複蘇感到非常高興，這將繼續成為今年剩餘時間的焦點。因此，這兩項業務都有良好的勢頭。

Did we understand your question correctly, Steve?

史蒂夫，我們是否正確理解了您的問題？

Sorry, I was on mute. No, I guess, if there's any way to provide a little bit of quantification around sort of the contribution of each of those businesses to that 6% to 7% on the year, that would be helpful.

對不起，我是靜音的。不，我想，如果有任何方法可以圍繞這些企業中的每一個對當年 6% 到 7% 的貢獻提供一些量化，那將是有幫助的。

Yes. We don't have that, Steve. So I think what we'll do is probably in the Investor Day, we'll probably give you a lot more details of each of the 2 businesses. I mean, obviously, Kellanova is about 85%. So the 6% to 7% that we're talking for the overall companies being driven by Kellanova. And I think like on North America cereal, what you saw in the first quarter, we were clearly lapping the fire and strike. So the double-digit growth was lapping that. You'd expect that to normalize as we go through the course of the year.

是的。我們沒有那個，史蒂夫。所以我認為我們可能會在投資者日做些什麼，我們可能會為您提供這兩項業務的更多詳細信息。我的意思是，顯然，Kellanova 大約是 85%。因此，我們正在談論由 Kellanova 推動的整體公司的 6% 到 7%。我認為就像在北美穀物上一樣，你在第一季度看到的情況，我們顯然是在火上澆油和罷工。因此，兩位數的增長正在超越這一點。隨著我們度過這一年的過程，您會期望這種情況會正常化。

Steve, maybe if it's helpful. As you look at syndicated data, you can look at the North American cereal business, and you see a lot there. And then as Amit said, 85% of the business is Kellanova. You look at the EMEA results, you look at the Europe, and look at North America Snacks, you can probably get a pretty good sense of what that looks like.

史蒂夫，也許有幫助的話。當你查看聯合數據時，你可以查看北美穀物業務，你會在那裡看到很多。然後正如 Amit 所說，85% 的業務是 Kellanova。你看看 EMEA 的結果，看看歐洲，再看看北美的零食，你可能會很好地了解它的樣子。

Your next question today comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley.

您今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pamela Kaufman。

The question on your EPS guidance for the year. Just given the magnitude of the Q1 beat, why not raise your full year guidance by more than 1%? Were Q1 results more in line with your internal expectations versus where the street was? Or are there factors weighing on the EPS growth outlook over the rest of the year that temper the flow-through of Q1 upside?

關於您當年的 EPS 指南的問題。考慮到第一季度的強勁表現，為什麼不將全年指導目標提高 1% 以上呢？第一季度的結果是否更符合您的內部預期而不是街道的預期？或者是否有因素影響今年餘下時間的 EPS 增長前景，從而緩和第一季度的上行空間？

Yes. I think like we talked earlier in the call and in the prepared remarks, obviously, very pleased with the Q1 over delivery. I think it's still early in the year. We talked a little bit about being prudent on our elasticity assumptions and price elasticity assumptions for the rest of the year. We're being prudent from a separation and spin standpoint. Steve had talked a little bit about building into the guidance, some of the costs associated with the spin in quarter 3.

是的。我想就像我們早些時候在電話會議和準備好的評論中所說的那樣，顯然，對第一季度的超額交付非常滿意。我認為現在還為時過早。我們談到了對今年剩餘時間的彈性假設和價格彈性假設要謹慎。從分離和旋轉的角度來看，我們是謹慎的。史蒂夫談到了一些關於建立指導意見的問題，一些與第三季度分拆相關的成本。

So I think it's a balance of being prudent on our volume assumptions and our elasticity assumptions for the year. And it's early in the year, but obviously, very pleased with the underlying momentum in the business and the strong start.

所以我認為這是對我們今年的數量假設和彈性假設保持謹慎的平衡。現在是今年年初，但顯然，對業務的潛在勢頭和強勁的開端感到非常滿意。

Got it. And then just on Europe, pricing came in very strong there, but volumes did soften. What are you seeing in terms of consumer behavior in Europe? And have you finalized your price negotiations there?

知道了。然後就在歐洲，那裡的定價非常強勁，但銷量確實有所下降。您對歐洲的消費者行為有何看法？你在那裡完成了價格談判嗎？

Yes, Pam. So what we're seeing in Europe is, as I mentioned earlier, a little bit more elasticity, a little bit more channel shifting than we're seeing in some of the others. Obviously, a big impact on Russia, which obviously, we stopped shipping in Russia and we're divesting the business in Russia. But getting back to Continental Europe, shoppers are doing some channel shifting, as I just mentioned, hard discounters, clearly growing their businesses. That has a disproportionate benefit to private label. Within our portfolios, we're seeing a little bit more. And these are modest coming from small bases, but a little bit more private label growth in Europe, in Europe Cereal than we would be in the rest of the world.

是的，帕姆。因此，正如我之前提到的，我們在歐洲看到的是比我們在其他一些國家看到的更多的彈性，更多的渠道轉移。顯然，這對俄羅斯產生了重大影響，顯然，我們停止了在俄羅斯的運輸，我們正在剝離在俄羅斯的業務。但是回到歐洲大陸，購物者正在做一些渠道轉移，正如我剛才提到的，硬折扣店，顯然在發展他們的業務。這對私人標籤有不成比例的好處。在我們的投資組合中，我們看到了更多。這些都是來自小基地的適度增長，但在歐洲，歐洲穀物的自有品牌增長比我們在世界其他地區要多一些。

So no surprises. Europe is a challenging environment. But again, our results in that challenging environment are something that we're very proud of, very proud of the way the team has delivered. And as we said in our prepared remarks, when you strip out the effect of Russia, you see even better performance there. So one to watch, but one that we're -- we've got very, very good plans in place for the back half of the year and even indeed into next year.

所以沒有驚喜。歐洲是一個充滿挑戰的環境。但同樣，我們在充滿挑戰的環境中取得的成果讓我們感到非常自豪，為團隊的交付方式感到非常自豪。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，當你剔除俄羅斯的影響時，你會看到那裡的表現更好。所以值得關注，但我們是 - 我們已經為今年下半年甚至明年制定了非常非常好的計劃。

The next question today comes from the line of Max Gumport from BNP Paribas.

今天的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Max Gumport。

In the release and in the prepared remarks today, you discussed supply bottlenecks and shortages that are beginning to moderate. This has been a key pressure point for the industry, both in terms of supply chain disruptions we've seen and also inflation given conversion costs associated with upstream suppliers in particular. So I was hoping you could double-click on the drivers of the improvement that you're seeing there? And also how much recovery is still left to go?

在新聞稿和今天準備好的評論中，你們討論了供應瓶頸和短缺問題，這些問題正在開始緩和。這一直是該行業的一個關鍵壓力點，無論是在我們看到的供應鏈中斷方面，還是在通貨膨脹方面，尤其是與上游供應商相關的轉換成本。所以我希望您可以雙擊您在那裡看到的改進的驅動因素？還有多少恢復還有待去？

Yes. So Max, I'll start, and again, Amit can add. I'd say the easy answer -- the short answer to that question is supply constraints, bottleneck shortages are improving almost everywhere. And so everything from the driver shortages that we talked about, the ocean freight shortages, containers being in the wrong place at the wrong time. All these things that only a year ago, the entire industry was struggling with had become much more normalized.

是的。那麼 Max，我將開始，Amit 可以再次補充。我會說一個簡單的答案——這個問題的簡短答案是供應限制，幾乎所有地方的瓶頸短缺都在改善。因此，從我們談到的司機短缺、海運短缺、集裝箱在錯誤的時間出現在錯誤的地點等一切。所有這些僅在一年前，整個行業都在苦苦掙扎的事情已經變得更加常態化。

We still have the odd shortages, inventory not being in the right place from some of our suppliers. But I mean literally, every day, it's getting better. We talked -- I know a couple of times on these calls, about a control tower approach that we took and things that were elevated to the top of the control tower, if you like, that took manual interventions to get done, those are down dramatically. So the type of automation and the type of supply chain that we had before the pandemic is much closer to being real today than it was.

我們仍然有奇怪的短缺，我們的一些供應商的庫存不在正確的地方。但我的意思是，每一天，它都在變得更好。我們談過——我知道在這些電話中有幾次，關於我們採用的控制塔方法，以及提升到控制塔頂部的事情，如果你願意的話，需要人工干預才能完成，那些已經下降戲劇性地。因此，我們在大流行之前擁有的自動化類型和供應鏈類型在今天比以前更接近真實。

We're not back to just-in-time inventories. We're not back to where we were. I don't think anybody is. But we're much closer and the outlook going forward continues to be one -- definitely much more of optimism than what we saw up to this point. In the second half of the year, we see continued improvement.

我們沒有回到準時制庫存。我們沒有回到原來的位置。我認為沒有人是。但我們離得更近了，未來的前景仍然是一個——肯定比我們到目前為止所看到的要樂觀得多。下半年，我們看到持續改善。

The only thing I'd add is we're seeing that flow through into the P&L. And I think that was one of the drivers of the improved margin performance in quarter 1. And certainly, the reason why we have confidence in raising our guidance for gross margin.

我唯一要補充的是，我們看到它流入損益表。我認為這是第一季度利潤率表現改善的驅動因素之一。當然，這也是我們有信心提高毛利率指引的原因。

The next question today comes from the line of Rob Dickerson from Jefferies.

今天的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Rob Dickerson。

Maybe just a quick question for you, Amit. Just around your -- I guess, around Steve's comments, about kind of the potentially very attractive momentum in the 2 separate businesses. Remember, CAGNY, you kind of went through some incremental detail, I believe, in the TSA agreement. So excuse my ignorance here if everybody already knows this, but I was just kind of looking for kind of maybe a kind of a clarification how the TSA agreement actually works because my sense is kind of what I feel is the there's actually a payment to the Snacks Co that provides you time to offset dis-synergies, if that makes sense. And maybe if you could just kind of clarify how that works? That's all I have.

阿米特，也許只是問你一個簡短的問題。就在你——我想，圍繞著史蒂夫的評論，關於這兩個獨立業務的潛在非常有吸引力的勢頭。請記住，CAGNY，我相信你在 TSA 協議中已經了解了一些漸進的細節。所以請原諒我的無知，如果每個人都已經知道這一點，但我只是在尋找一種可能是一種澄清 TSA 協議實際上是如何運作的，因為我的感覺是我覺得實際上是支付給如果有意義的話，Snacks Co 可以為您提供時間來抵消協同效應。也許你可以澄清一下它是如何工作的？這就是我的全部。

Yes. So we're making good progress on the TSAs, the Transitionary Service Agreements across a number of areas. And we're putting those into place. I mean these TSAs cover areas like IT services, global shared services, transportation, logistics. So those will be the bulk of the transitionary service agreements. They are varying in nature and from a timing standpoint, but could extend until up to 2 years. And obviously, that provides a stability, business continuity as well as helps offset the dis-synergies and gives both organizations time to address and put in place the right long-term structures appropriate for their businesses. So that's kind of where we are.

是的。因此，我們在 TSA（跨多個領域的過渡服務協議）方面取得了良好進展。我們正在將這些落實到位。我的意思是這些 TSA 涵蓋 IT 服務、全球共享服務、運輸、物流等領域。因此，這些將是過渡性服務協議的主體。從性質和時間的角度來看，它們各不相同，但最長可達 2 年。顯然，這提供了穩定性和業務連續性，並有助於抵消協同效應，並讓兩個組織有時間解決和建立適合其業務的正確長期結構。這就是我們所處的位置。

Operator, we have time for 1 quick last question.

接線員，我們有時間快速回答最後一個問題。

The next question today comes from the line of Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.

今天的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

Just was wondering if you could elaborate -- I was wondering if you could elaborate a little more on the restoration of marketing spending. And specifically, maybe if you're thinking of that in dollar terms or as a percent of sales, obviously, with pricing driven sales growth on a unit basis, the spend goes a little further if you do it as a percent of sales. Just curious where you land there and how to think about how that all evolves?

只是想知道你是否可以詳細說明 - 我想知道你是否可以詳細說明營銷支出的恢復。具體來說，如果你以美元或銷售額的百分比來考慮，很明顯，在單位基礎上以定價驅動的銷售額增長，如果你以銷售額的百分比來計算，支出會更進一步。只是好奇你在哪裡著陸以及如何思考這一切是如何演變的？

Yes. So we're pleased with the overall level of spending. And we'd expect it to be up, overall SG&A to be up similar to what it was up last year, low single-digit rates. I think within the year, obviously, there's a lot of phasing. If you recall, last year, we had pulled back in the first quarter. And then even in the second quarter, as we were restoring supply on the U.S. cereal business. This year, obviously, we've got a full commercial plan. And so I think in the quarter, we were up double digit against a low base, I think you'll see that reverse out in the rest of the year.

是的。因此，我們對總體支出水平感到滿意。我們預計它會上漲，整體 SG&A 上漲與去年相似，低個位數利率。我認為在一年內，顯然會有很多分階段。如果你還記得的話，去年，我們在第一季度退縮了。然後甚至在第二季度，因為我們正在恢復美國穀物業務的供應。今年，顯然，我們有一個完整的商業計劃。所以我認為在本季度，我們在低基數的情況下實現了兩位數的增長，我認為你會在今年餘下的時間裡看到這種情況發生逆轉。

But overall, when you kind of look at it and if you put aside the noise of the lap of the fire and the strike, we're very pleased with the levels of investment. As Steve mentioned, we're investing across the world, both in our brands as well as in innovation, and we're pleased with the levels of spend that we have.

但總的來說，當你看它時，如果你撇開大火和罷工的噪音，我們對投資水平感到非常滿意。正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們正在全球範圍內投資我們的品牌和創新，我們對我們的支出水平感到滿意。

Operator, we are at 10:30. So if you don't mind, we'd have to close it out right now. But if anyone has any follow-up calls, please do not hesitate to call us.

接線員，我們是 10:30。所以如果你不介意的話，我們現在就得把它關掉。但如果有人有任何後續電話，請隨時致電我們。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。