家樂氏 (K) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the Kellogg Company's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。歡迎來到家樂氏公司 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I will turn the call over to John Renwick, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning for Kellogg Company.

此時，我將把電話轉給 Kellogg Company 投資者關係和企業規劃副總裁 John Renwick。

Thank you, operator. Good morning and thank you for joining us today for a review of our third quarter results and an update regarding our outlook for 2022. I'm joined this morning by Steve Cahillane, our Chairman and CEO; and Amit Banati, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線員。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們，審查我們的第三季度業績並更新我們對 2022 年的展望。今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Steve Cahillane 加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Amit Banati。

Slide #3 shows our forward-looking statements disclaimer. As you are aware, certain statements made today such as projections for Kellogg Company's future performance are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the third slide of this presentation as well as to our public SEC filings.

幻燈片 #3 顯示了我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。如您所知，今天做出的某些陳述（例如對 Kellogg 公司未來業績的預測）屬於前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預測結果大不相同。有關可能導致這些結果不同的因素的更多信息，請參閱本演示文稿的第三張幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件。

This is a particular note amidst the current operating environment, which includes unusually high input cost inflation, global supply disruptions and uncertain global macroeconomic conditions, all of whose direction, length and severity are so difficult to predict.

在當前的運營環境中，這是一個特別的注意事項，其中包括異常高的投入成本通脹、全球供應中斷和不確定的全球宏觀經濟狀況，所有這些情況的方向、長度和嚴重程度都難以預測。

A recording of today's webcast and supporting documents will be archived for at least 90 days on the Investor page of kelloggcompany.com.

今天的網絡直播和支持文件的錄音將在 kelloggcompany.com 的投資者頁面上存檔至少 90 天。

As always, when referring to our outlook, unless otherwise noted, we will be referring to them on an organic basis for net sales and on a currency-neutral adjusted basis for operating profit and earnings per share.

與往常一樣，在提及我們的展望時，除非另有說明，否則我們將在淨銷售額的有機基礎上以及在營業利潤和每股收益的貨幣中性調整基礎上提及它們。

And now I'll turn it over to Steve.

現在我將把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. We are delighted to be able to report yet another quarter of momentum, progress, better-than-expected results and an improved full year outlook. Our organization once again exhibited grit and creativity in navigating and executing through a global operating environment that showed little to no signs of easing.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。我們很高興能夠報告又一個季度的勢頭、進展、好於預期的結果以及改善的全年前景。我們的組織再次展示了在全球運營環境中導航和執行的勇氣和創造力，幾乎沒有放鬆的跡象。

We continue to improve our service levels in spite of persistent bottlenecks and shortages of everything from materials and equipment, to trucks and containers. We also continue to mitigate the profit impact of exceptionally high cost inflation with good execution of productivity initiatives and revenue growth management actions.

儘管從材料和設備到卡車和集裝箱，一切都存在持續的瓶頸和短缺，我們仍在繼續提高我們的服務水平。我們還通過良好執行生產力計劃和收入增長管理行動，繼續減輕異常高成本通脹對利潤的影響。

And even in this unusual operating environment, we again saw the strength of our portfolio play out. We sustained our strong growth momentum in snacks around the world, and our emerging markets saw a strong growth in all key category groups. And in our North America cereal business, we continued to recover inventory and share more quickly than expected from enormous disruptions late last year.

即使在這種不尋常的運營環境中，我們也再次看到我們投資組合的實力發揮了作用。我們在全球零食領域保持了強勁的增長勢頭，我們的新興市場在所有關鍵類別中都實現了強勁增長。在我們的北美穀物業務中，我們繼續從去年年底的巨大中斷中恢復庫存並以比預期更快的速度分享。

At the same time, work continues on the planned separations, which we announced in June. A recent milestone was the announcement of our North America cereal company leadership team, and we continue to work on organizational design and carve-out financials.

與此同時，我們在 6 月宣布的計劃中的離職工作仍在繼續。最近的一個里程碑是我們宣布成立北美穀物公司領導團隊，我們將繼續致力於組織設計和財務分拆。

And through all of this, we delivered a financial performance for quarter 3 that exceeded our expectations and enables us to raise our guidance for the full year. In short, another good quarter, adding to a track record of dependable delivery and with plenty of reasons to be confident that this kind of delivery can continue.

通過所有這些，我們在第三季度的財務業績超出了我們的預期，使我們能夠提高全年的指導。簡而言之，又是一個不錯的季度，增加了可靠交付的記錄，並且有充分的理由相信這種交付可以繼續下去。

You can tell our Deploy for Growth strategy is working from the quality of our results. Slide #6 shows one key metric, our net sales growth. As you know, our momentum is not new. Our third quarter showed acceleration of a trend that has been running above our long-term target for the past few years. And while this third quarter acceleration was led by price realization necessary to keep up with soaring costs, the elasticity impact on volume has been less than expected, and our world-class brands continue to perform especially well in market.

您可以從結果的質量看出我們的 Deploy for Growth 戰略正在發揮作用。幻燈片 #6 顯示了一個關鍵指標，即我們的淨銷售額增長。如您所知，我們的勢頭並不新鮮。我們的第三季度顯示了過去幾年一直高於我們長期目標的趨勢加速。儘管第三季度的加速是由跟上成本飆升所必需的價格實現引領的，但對銷量的彈性影響低於預期，我們的世界級品牌繼續在市場上表現特別出色。

We are seeing this momentum across markets and category groups. We grew net sales organically in all 4 regions and in all 4 category groups within those regions, from snacks to cereal to frozen foods to noodles and other. So this momentum is broad-based and long running and another reason to believe in our strategy, portfolio and people.

我們在各個市場和類別組中都看到了這種勢頭。我們在所有 4 個地區和這些地區內的所有 4 個類別組中實現了淨銷售額的有機增長，從零食到穀類食品到冷凍食品到麵條等。因此，這種勢頭是基礎廣泛且長期持續的，也是相信我們的戰略、投資組合和人員的另一個理由。

As a key element of our Deploy for Growth strategy, our ESG strategy is also working. A few highlights from quarter 3 are shown on Slide #7.

作為我們部署增長戰略的一個關鍵要素，我們的 ESG 戰略也在發揮作用。幻燈片 #7 顯示了第 3 季度的一些亮點。

Let me now turn it over to Amit, who will explain our financial results and outlook in more detail.

現在讓我把它交給阿米特，他將更詳細地解釋我們的財務業績和前景。

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Slide #9 provides a summary of our third quarter and year-to-date financial results. Our net sales in quarter 3 grew more than 13% year-on-year on an organic basis, coming in higher than expected and bringing year-to-date organic growth to 10%. Our adjusted basis operating profit grew 4% on a currency-neutral basis in quarter 3, overcoming the impact of high cost, bottlenecks and shortages, and increased investment. This, too, was better than expected, and it puts our year-to-date growth at a similar 4%.

謝謝，史蒂夫，大家早上好。幻燈片 #9 提供了我們第三季度和年初至今財務業績的摘要。我們第三季度的淨銷售額在有機基礎上同比增長超過 13%，高於預期，使年初至今的有機增長達到 10%。在不考慮貨幣因素的情況下，我們在第三季度調整後的營業利潤增長了 4%，克服了高成本、瓶頸和短缺以及投資增加的影響。這也好於預期，使我們今年迄今的增長率接近 4%。

Our adjusted basis earnings per share declined 3% on a currency-neutral basis in quarter 3 due to the as-anticipated reduction in pension income related to remeasuring the pension assets and interest rates. Nevertheless, through the end of the third quarter, our EPS was up 3% on this currency-neutral adjusted basis.

由於與重新衡量養老金資產和利率相關的養老金收入按預期減少，在不考慮貨幣因素的情況下，我們在第三季度調整後的每股收益下降了 3%。儘管如此，到第三季度末，在這種貨幣中性調整的基礎上，我們的每股收益增長了 3%。

Cash flow through the first 3 quarters remained well ahead of last year. Excluded from our currency-neutral results, of course, is foreign currency translation, which reduced our net sales, operating profit and earnings per share by 4 to 5 percentage points each as the dollar strengthened meaningfully further during the quarter.

前三個季度的現金流量仍遠高於去年。當然，我們的貨幣中性結果不包括外幣換算，這使我們的淨銷售額、營業利潤和每股收益各下降了 4 到 5 個百分點，因為美元在本季度進一步顯著走強。

Now let's look at each metric in a little more detail. Slide #10 lays out the components of our strong net sales growth this year. Despite supply challenges and our suspension of Pringles shipments to Russia, volume only declined relatively modestly, suggesting that price elasticity has not moved up as much or as soon as we had expected. Price/mix accelerated again in quarter 3, and it accelerated in all 4 regions as they continue to utilize revenue growth management to help offset higher input costs. All 4 regions delivered double-digit increases in price/mix in quarter 3. Both of these components, volume and price/mix, were relatively consistent with the year-to-date trends.

現在讓我們更詳細地看一下每個指標。幻燈片 #10 列出了我們今年強勁的淨銷售額增長的組成部分。儘管供應面臨挑戰並且我們暫停向俄羅斯發貨品客薯片，但銷量僅相對溫和地下降，這表明價格彈性並未像我們預期的那樣上升或迅速上升。第三季度價格/組合再次加速，並且在所有 4 個地區都加速，因為它們繼續利用收入增長管理來幫助抵消更高的投入成本。在第三季度，所有 4 個地區的價格/組合均實現了兩位數的增長。這兩個組成部分，即數量和價格/組合，都與年初至今的趨勢相對一致。

Turning now to gross profit. Slide #11 illustrates how each region is facing enormously high cost pressure. Year-to-date, our COGS per kilo inflation has run in the high teens or worst in each region, driven by both input cost inflation and costs and inefficiencies arising from global bottlenecks and shortages, not to mention adverse transactional foreign exchange. And keep in mind that this is net of the good work we are doing on productivity.

現在轉向毛利潤。幻燈片 #11 展示了每個地區如何面臨巨大的成本壓力。年初至今，由於投入成本通脹以及全球瓶頸和短缺導致的成本和效率低下，更不用說不利的交易外匯，我們每公斤的銷貨成本通脹率在每個地區都處於十幾歲或最差的水平。請記住，這是我們在生產力方面所做的良好工作的淨值。

Our net sales per kilo, which is how we measure price/mix, is up in the mid-teens, covering a sizable portion of our input cost inflation. However, it is not able to cover the unpredictable impact of supply disruptions and the first quarter impacts related to last year's second half fire and strike. Our net sales per kilo accelerated sequentially in quarter 3, in part reflecting revenue growth management actions taken during the quarter. However, our COGS per kilo accelerated, too, indicating that these pressures are not behind us.

我們每公斤的淨銷售額（這是我們衡量價格/組合的方式）在十幾歲左右上升，涵蓋了我們投入成本通脹的很大一部分。但是，它無法涵蓋供應中斷的不可預測影響以及與去年下半年火災和罷工相關的第一季度影響。我們每公斤的淨銷售額在第三季度環比增長，部分反映了該季度採取的收入增長管理措施。然而，我們每公斤的 COGS 也在加速增長，這表明這些壓力並沒有落後於我們。

Slide #12 shows that our gross profit dollars increased year-on-year, both in quarter 3 and on a year-to-date basis. During quarter 3, our margin decline narrowed as we had indicated it would. And our net sales grew enough that gross profit dollars increased at a mid-single-digit rate year-on-year. So even though our margins have been pressured by the current environment, our gross profit dollars remain on an upward trajectory.

幻燈片 #12 顯示，我們的毛利潤美元在第三季度和年初至今的基礎上都同比增長。在第三季度，我們的利潤率下降幅度正如我們所暗示的那樣收窄。我們的淨銷售額增長到足以使毛利潤金額以中個位數的速度同比增長。因此，即使我們的利潤率受到當前環境的壓力，我們的毛利潤仍處於上升軌道。

As we look to quarter 4, we expect both margins and dollars to increase year-on-year as we lap last year's fire and strike impact. However, based on the current economic conditions, we no longer anticipate bottlenecks and shortages to diminish in quarter 4. As a result, while we still expect gross profit margin to increase year-on-year in the quarter, it won't be as much as previously projected. And this will mean finishing the full year with a gross margin that is down a bit more than 100 basis points previously mentioned but still growing in dollars.

當我們展望第 4 季度時，我們預計隨著去年火災和罷工的影響，利潤率和美元將同比增長。但是，基於當前的經濟狀況，我們不再預計第四季度的瓶頸和短缺會減少。因此，儘管我們仍然預計該季度的毛利率將同比增長，但不會像和之前預計的差不多。這將意味著全年毛利率下降超過 100 個基點，但仍以美元計價。

Moving down the income statement on Slide #13. We see how our SG&A accelerated its year-on-year increase just as we said it would. As expected, advertising and promotion investment increased year-on-year as our U.S. cereal business resumes commercial activity now that it has caught up on inventory, and overhead increased year-on-year reflecting higher incentive compensation and a resumption of travel and meetings. As we enter quarter 4, we expect to see an even larger year-on-year increase in SG&A as North America cereal restores more of its commercial activity.

在幻燈片 #13 上向下移動損益表。正如我們所說，我們看到我們的 SG&A 如何加速其同比增長。正如預期的那樣，隨著我們的美國穀物業務在趕上庫存後恢復商業活動，廣告和促銷投資同比增加，並且由於激勵薪酬增加以及旅行和會議的恢復，管理費用同比增加。隨著我們進入第 4 季度，我們預計隨著北美穀物恢復更多的商業活動，SG&A 的同比增幅將更大。

Slide #14 shows that in spite of these extreme operating conditions, not to mention this year's meaningfully adverse currency translation, we remain on an upward trajectory on operating profit. Operating profit in the third quarter was up 4% year-on-year on a currency-neutral basis and flat after the adverse currency translation. Year-to-date, it was up both on a currency-neutral basis and after adverse foreign exchange. We expect to see that continue in quarter 4.

幻燈片 #14 顯示，儘管存在這些極端的經營狀況，更不用說今年明顯不利的貨幣換算，但我們的經營利潤仍處於上升軌道。在貨幣中性基礎上，第三季度的營業利潤同比增長 4%，在不利的貨幣換算後持平。年初至今，無論是在貨幣中性基礎上還是在不利的外匯匯率下，它都上漲了。我們預計這種情況將在第 4 季度繼續。

Slide #15 shows our below-the-line items, which were again collectively negative to EPS growth in the quarter. Interest expense was up modestly year-on-year in quarter 3 as lower debt balances were offset by higher interest rates. As we mentioned last quarter, rising interest rates will affect the roughly 20% of our debt that is floating, and this will become much more acute in quarter 4.

幻燈片#15 顯示了我們的線下項目，這些項目再次對本季度的每股收益增長產生了負面影響。由於較低的債務餘額被較高的利率所抵消，第三季度的利息支出同比溫和上升。正如我們上個季度提到的，利率上升將影響我們大約 20% 的浮動債務，這將在第 4 季度變得更加嚴重。

As expected, other income decreased significantly year-on-year due to the midyear remeasurement of 2 of our U.S. pension plans, which adjusts for currently lower asset values and higher interest rates. This will similarly affect other income in quarter 4. And as mentioned previously, depending on how financial markets finished this year, this will be an even more significant headwind in 2023 as we'll have a full year impact across all of our post-retirement plans. Of course, this is a noncash nonoperating item.

正如預期的那樣，由於對我們的 2 個美國養老金計劃進行了年中重新計量，該計劃針對當前較低的資產價值和較高的利率進行了調整，因此其他收入同比大幅下降。這同樣會影響第 4 季度的其他收入。如前所述，根據今年金融市場的收盤情況，這將在 2023 年成為更大的逆風，因為我們將在整個退休後產生全年影響計劃。當然，這是非現金非經營項目。

Our effective tax rate in quarter 3 was relatively flat year-on-year after benefiting from country mix and discrete benefits. We now look for our full year effective tax rate to be somewhere above 21.5%.

在受益於國家組合和離散收益後，我們在第三季度的有效稅率同比相對持平。我們現在期待我們的全年有效稅率高於 21.5%。

Our JV earnings and minority interests were collectively down against an unusually high year-earlier period following our midyear '21 consolidation of Africa joint ventures, but remained fairly consistent with more recent quarters. And average shares outstanding were relatively flat year-on-year as the impact of our share buybacks early in the year was offset by increased option exercises by employees. As a result, we now think average shares outstanding will be flattish for the full year.

在我們 21 年年中合併非洲合資企業之後，我們的合資企業收益和少數股東權益與去年同期異常高的時期相比總體下降，但與最近幾個季度保持相當一致。由於我們年初股票回購的影響被員工增加的期權行使所抵消，平均流通股與去年同期相比相對持平。因此，我們現在認為全年平均流通股將持平。

Our cash flow and balance sheet also remain in very good shape, as shown on Slide #16. Our absolute cash flow has remained on an upward trajectory right through quarter 3, and this cash flow has enabled us to reduce our net debt over the past few years, leading to lower leverage ratios. This has given us enhanced financial flexibility, even as we have continued to increase our cash return to share owners in the form of an increased dividend and buybacks this year.

如幻燈片 #16 所示，我們的現金流和資產負債表也保持良好狀態。我們的絕對現金流在第三季度一直保持上升趨勢，這種現金流使我們能夠在過去幾年減少淨債務，從而降低杠桿率。這給了我們增強的財務靈活性，即使我們今年繼續以增加股息和回購的形式增加對股東的現金回報。

Let's now turn to Slide #17 and discuss where we think we'll finish the year. As Steve mentioned, we are raising our guidance today based on our strong quarter 3 delivery and good top line momentum going into quarter 4. We are raising our full year outlook for organic net sales growth to approximately 10%, a sizable increase from our previous guidance of 7% to 8%. This reflects our better-than-expected performance in quarter 3, and it implies continued double-digit growth in the fourth quarter led by price/mix and sustained momentum in our business, partially offset by rising price elasticity and Russia impact. This improved sales outlook is prompting us to raise our full year outlook for adjusted basis currency-neutral operating profit growth to approximately 6%, up from our previous guidance of 4% to 5%. This is despite sustained high-teens cost inflation and our revised assumption around bottlenecks and shortages, which we now expect to persist through the fourth quarter.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 #17，並討論我們認為我們將在哪裡結束這一年。正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們今天基於我們強勁的第三季度交付和進入第四季度的良好收入勢頭提高了我們的指導。我們將有機淨銷售額增長的全年預期提高到約 10%，比我們之前的大幅增長7% 至 8% 的指導。這反映了我們在第三季度的表現好於預期，這意味著第四季度在價格/組合和我們業務的持續增長勢頭的帶動下繼續保持兩位數的增長，部分被價格彈性上升和俄羅斯影響所抵消。這種改善的銷售前景促使我們將調整後的基於貨幣中性的營業利潤增長的全年預期從我們之前的 4% 至 5% 的指引上調至約 6%。儘管持續的高青少年成本通脹以及我們對瓶頸和短缺的修正假設，我們現在預計這種情況將持續到第四季度。

We are also raising our full year outlook for adjusted basis earnings per share growth to approximately 3% growth on a currency-neutral basis, up from our previous guidance of 2%. This reflects the higher operating profit outlook, partially offset by a worsened outlook for below-the-line items. This includes our remeasured pension income and higher interest expense due to the rise in rates only partially offset by an effective tax rate that comes down slightly because of Q3's favorability.

在貨幣中性基礎上，我們還將調整後每股收益增長的全年預期從我們之前的 2% 提高到約 3%。這反映了較高的營業利潤前景，但部分被線下項目前景惡化所抵消。這包括我們重新衡量的養老金收入和由於利率上升而導致的更高的利息支出，這部分被有效稅率所抵消，有效稅率由於第三季度的有利而略有下降。

We deliberately stick to currency-neutral guidance because of the difficulty in predicting foreign exchange rates. But because of the dollar's meaningful strengthening lately and the number of investor questions we received regarding its impact, I will mention that if today's exchange rates were to hold, we would absorb a negative impact of 3% to 4% on a full year net sales operating profit and EPS growth and a higher negative impact in quarter 4.

由於難以預測匯率，我們特意堅持貨幣中性指引。但由於最近美元顯著走強以及我們收到的有關其影響的投資者問題的數量，我會提到，如果今天的匯率保持不變，我們將吸收全年淨銷售額 3% 至 4% 的負面影響第四季度的營業利潤和每股收益增長以及更高的負面影響。

Our full year outlook for cash flow remains approximately $1.2 billion. Remember that this guidance incorporates incremental upfront cash outlays in 2022 related to the previously announced separation transactions.

我們對現金流的全年展望仍約為 12 億美元。請記住，本指南包含 2022 年與先前宣布的離職交易相關的增量前期現金支出。

So to summarize our financial position on Slide #18, we feel very good about how we are performing and our financial condition. Our business is showing strong underlying momentum. Our efforts around productivity and revenue growth management are helping to mitigate unusually high cost pressures. We are raising our outlook for the full year largely on the strength of what we've already delivered. And our cash flow and balance sheet are giving us good financial flexibility.

因此，在幻燈片 #18 上總結我們的財務狀況，我們對自己的表現和財務狀況感覺非常好。我們的業務顯示出強勁的潛在動力。我們圍繞生產力和收入增長管理所做的努力正在幫助減輕異常高的成本壓力。我們在很大程度上提高了對全年的展望，主要是基於我們已經交付的成果。我們的現金流和資產負債表為我們提供了良好的財務靈活性。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Steve to discuss our individual businesses.

有了這個，我將把它轉回史蒂夫來討論我們的個人業務。

Thanks, Amit. I'll start with a review of each of our regions, beginning with Kellogg North America on Slide #20. This region had another good quarter, delivering notably strong net sales growth with organic growth in both volume and price/mix. Our sales growth was led by what is by far our largest business in North America, and that's snacks. This business had another quarter of strong organic volume growth and price realization. And its net sales growth acceleration was accompanied by a similar acceleration in consumption. We'll talk more about these brands in a moment.

謝謝，阿米特。我將從對我們每個地區的回顧開始，從幻燈片 #20 上的 Kellogg North America 開始。該地區又一個不錯的季度實現了強勁的淨銷售額增長，銷量和價格/組合均實現了有機增長。我們的銷售增長是由迄今為止我們在北美最大的業務帶動的，那就是零食。該業務又一個季度實現了強勁的有機銷量增長和價格實現。其淨銷售額增長加速伴隨著消費的類似加速。稍後我們將詳細討論這些品牌。

Cereal in North America also recorded another quarter of accelerated net sales growth, reaching double digits year-on-year, roughly in line with its consumption growth. We'll talk more about this business' rapid recovery also in a minute.

北美穀物也錄得另一個季度的淨銷售額加速增長，同比達到兩位數，大致與其消費增長一致。我們將在一分鐘內詳細討論這項業務的快速恢復。

In our Frozen businesses, where we've experienced pronounced supply constraints this year, we returned to organic net sales growth in the quarter. This was aided by newly installed waffle capacity.

在我們今年經歷了明顯供應限制的冷凍業務中，我們在本季度恢復了有機淨銷售額增長。這得益於新安裝的華夫餅容量。

Kellogg North America in the third quarter delivered sequentially better operating profit growth as well despite no letup in input cost inflation or bottlenecks and shortages and despite increased reinvestment. So overall, North America continues to perform well and is poised for a strong finish to a strong year.

儘管投入成本通脹或瓶頸和短缺並沒有減弱，儘管再投資有所增加，但凱洛格北美公司第三季度的營業利潤增長也比上一季度更好。因此，總體而言，北美繼續表現良好，並準備以強勁的勢頭結束強勁的一年。

Kellogg Europe's results are shown on Slide #21. Ever since the war broke out in Ukraine, we've known that Kellogg Europe would have 2 very different halves of the year. Because as we suspended Pringles shipments into Russia right away during the first quarter, it took some time to work through inventories.

Kellogg Europe 的結果顯示在幻燈片 #21 上。自從烏克蘭戰爭爆發以來，我們就知道凱洛格歐洲在一年中會有兩個截然不同的半年。因為我們在第一季度立即暫停了品客薯片對俄羅斯的發貨，因此需要一些時間來處理庫存。

Now in the second half, we feel the brunt of this lost revenue and profit. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has contributed to a surge in energy costs and bottlenecks and shortages as well as devaluations in currencies against the U.S. dollar and a pinched consumer that is contributing to increasing elasticities at least on cereal. And yet, Kellogg Europe in the third quarter still managed to sustain top line growth and mitigate the profit pressure even as it lapped the year earlier quarter's enormous sales and profit growth.

現在在下半年，我們首當其沖地感受到了這種收入和利潤的損失。與此同時，烏克蘭戰爭導致能源成本飆升、瓶頸和短缺，以及貨幣兌美元貶值，以及至少在穀物方面導致彈性增加的消費者緊張。然而，儘管凱洛格歐洲在第三季度的銷售額和利潤增長超過了去年同期的巨大增長，但仍設法維持了收入增長並緩解了利潤壓力。

In snacks, which represent almost half of Kellogg Europe's sales, the lost sales in Russia were more than offset by double-digit organic growth elsewhere. Pringles maintained its double-digit consumption growth momentum, and portable wholesome snacks are generating strong consumption growth on the strength of Pop-Tarts, Rice Krispies Squares and Barretta nut bars.

在佔家樂氏歐洲銷售額近一半的零食方面，俄羅斯的銷售額損失被其他地區兩位數的有機增長所抵消。品客薯片保持了兩位數的消費增長勢頭，便攜式健康零食憑藉 Pop-Tarts、Rice Krispies Squares 和 Barretta nut bar 的強勁增長帶動了強勁的消費增長。

Cereal net sales also grew organically, reflecting revenue growth management and broad-based consumption growth even as price elasticity continued to move toward historical levels. The fourth quarter faces similar Russia and cost headwinds as quarter 3 as well as increased reinvestment, but the underlying momentum in the business will be sustained.

即使價格彈性繼續接近歷史水平，穀物淨銷售額也有機增長，反映了收入增長管理和基礎廣泛的消費增長。第四季度面臨與第三季度類似的俄羅斯和成本逆風以及再投資增加，但該業務的潛在勢頭將持續下去。

Let's turn to Kellogg Latin America, as shown on Slide #22. Strong organic net sales growth was broad-based across the region, with double-digit growth in both snacks and cereal and driven by revenue growth management actions.

讓我們轉向 Kellogg 拉丁美洲，如幻燈片 #22 所示。整個地區強勁的有機淨銷售額增長基礎廣泛，零食和穀類食品均實現兩位數增長，並受到收入增長管理措施的推動。

In snacks, which represent more than 1/3 of our annual net sales in Latin America, we continue to drive very strong consumption growth in key markets, including double-digit growth and share gains for Pringles in the key markets of Mexico and Brazil.

在占我們拉丁美洲年度淨銷售額 1/3 以上的零食方面，我們繼續推動關鍵市場的強勁消費增長，包括在墨西哥和巴西等關鍵市場的兩位數增長和品客薯片的份額增長。

In cereal, the net sales and consumption growth was led by Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. Productivity and revenue growth management actions helped to mitigate the impact of high cost inflation, adverse transactional foreign exchange and supply disruptions, leading to solid growth in Latin America's operating profit. In the remaining quarter this year, Latin America should sustain sales and profit growth even as we expect price elasticities to rise gradually as we work to offset continued cost inflation and supply challenges.

在穀物方面，巴西、哥倫比亞和墨西哥的淨銷售和消費增長領先。生產力和收入增長管理行動有助於減輕高成本通脹、不利的交易外彙和供應中斷的影響，從而導致拉丁美洲的營業利潤穩健增長。在今年剩下的一個季度，拉丁美洲應該會保持銷售和利潤增長，儘管我們預計價格彈性將逐漸上升，因為我們努力抵消持續的成本通脹和供應挑戰。

We'll finish our regional review with Kellogg AMEA and Slide #23. In the third quarter, our AMEA region sustained its exceptional momentum, accelerating its organic net sales growth for a third consecutive quarter. From a category perspective, noodles and other is our biggest segment in AMEA, representing almost half of the region's sales and led by our West African distributor business, Multipro. In the third quarter, it sustained organic net sales growth of more than 20% just as it has all year.

我們將通過 Kellogg AMEA 和幻燈片 #23 完成我們的區域審查。第三季度，我們的 AMEA 地區保持了非凡的勢頭，連續第三個季度加速了其有機淨銷售額增長。從品類的角度來看，麵條和其他是我們在 AMEA 的最大部分，佔該地區銷售額的近一半，由我們的西非分銷商 Multipro 領導。在第三季度，它保持了超過 20% 的有機淨銷售額增長，與全年一樣。

Snacks accelerated its organic net sales growth in the quarter led by Pringles, which sustained its broad-based momentum in consumption growth, with notable outperformance in emerging markets. Cereal also sustained good broad-based net sales growth with particular strength in the Middle East and India. Despite facing the high cost pressures in the region, a function of input costs, ocean freight costs and adverse transactional foreign exchange, AMEA still managed to grow its currency-neutral adjusted basis operating profit in the double digits in the third quarter. We expect similar dynamics and momentum to play out in the fourth quarter, making this a very strong year for our AMEA region.

在品客薯片的帶動下，零食在本季度加速了其有機淨銷售額增長，保持了其廣泛的消費增長勢頭，在新興市場表現出色。穀物也保持了良好的廣泛淨銷售額增長，在中東和印度尤為強勁。儘管面臨該地區的高成本壓力，由於投入成本、海運成本和不利的交易外匯，亞洲、中東和非洲地區第三季度的貨幣中性調整後營業利潤仍實現了兩位數的增長。我們預計第四季度將出現類似的動態和勢頭，這對我們的 AMEA 地區來說是非常強勁的一年。

Now let's dig into each of our category groups and brands in a little more detail, shaping our discussion in terms of the businesses that comprise the planned post-separation companies. A breakout of these businesses is shown on Slide #24. As you can see, the businesses that represent 80% of our portfolio's net sales today and that will comprise global snacking company after the separations have continued to show outstanding growth this year. In fact, this portfolio's net sales have grown organically at a double-digit rate so far this year.

現在讓我們更詳細地研究我們的每個類別組和品牌，根據構成計劃中的分拆後公司的業務來塑造我們的討論。幻燈片 #24 顯示了這些業務的突破。正如您所看到的，占我們投資組合淨銷售額 80% 的業務以及在分離後將構成全球零食公司的業務今年繼續顯示出顯著的增長。事實上，今年迄今為止，該投資組合的淨銷售額以兩位數的速度有機增長。

For North America cereal company, you can see that our net sales are up organically in the low single digits this year. The only business where there has been softness is Plant Co., which has continued to experience supply disruption, as we'll discuss in a moment.

對於北美穀物公司，您可以看到我們今年的淨銷售額以低個位數有機增長。唯一出現疲軟的企業是 Plant Co.，它繼續經歷供應中斷，我們稍後會討論。

Let's look at each of these businesses and their key brands. Slide #25 shows how our world-class snacks brands sustained their in-market momentum in the third quarter around the world. Pringles, with $2.5 billion in annual net sales globally, once again generated double-digit consumption growth in virtually every one of our major markets around the world.

讓我們看一下這些業務及其主要品牌。幻燈片 #25 展示了我們的世界級零食品牌如何在第三季度在全球保持其市場勢頭。品客薯片在全球的年淨銷售額達到 25 億美元，再次在我們全球幾乎每一個主要市場創造了兩位數的消費增長。

Cheez-It, with over $1 billion of annual net sales, sustained its double-digit growth in quarter 3 both in Canada and the U.S., where our new Puff'd platform has been incremental to the franchise.

Cheez-It 的年淨銷售額超過 10 億美元，在第三季度在加拿大和美國保持了兩位數的增長，我們新的 Puff'd 平台已在該地區增加了特許經營權。

Pop-Tarts, closing in on $1 billion of annual net sales, continued to post good growth in the third quarter in its primary market, the U.S., while continuing to show why we believe it has so much promise internationally.

Pop-Tarts 的年淨銷售額接近 10 億美元，第三季度在其主要市場美國繼續保持良好增長，同時繼續證明我們為什麼相信它在國際上具有如此大的前景。

Rice Krispies Treats, with $0.5 billion of annual net sales, was supply constrained in the U.S. during the third quarter and still grew consumption in the mid-single digits, with its new Homestyle subline proving to be incremental to the franchise, and the brand is showing good growth in international markets as well. These are important brands. The 4 brands collectively represent more than 40% of the total net sales of what will be a global snacking company.

Rice Krispies Treats 的年淨銷售額為 5 億美元，第三季度在美國的供應受到限制，但消費量仍以中個位數增長，其新的 Homestyle 子系列被證明是特許經營的增量，該品牌是在國際市場上也顯示出良好的增長。這些都是重要的品牌。這四個品牌合計佔全球零食公司總淨銷售額的 40% 以上。

Slide #26 provides a glimpse of our international cereal businesses. As you can see, good consumption growth continued in the third quarter with the growth led by world-class brands and by emerging markets. In more developed cereal markets like those in Europe, Australia, Japan and Korea, we are starting to see price elasticity move higher. Nevertheless, we grew consumption across key European markets in the third quarter with Special K back to growth aided by a new campaign and the launch of Special K Granola with 30% less sugar. We also grew consumption in Australia, and our consumption is beginning to improve in Japan and Korea on the relaunch and expansion of granola offerings. In emerging markets, which represent about half of our international cereal sales annually, consumption growth remains robust both for us and the category. On the slide, note the solid consumption growth rates in key Latin America markets and in India.

幻燈片 #26 展示了我們的國際穀物業務。如您所見，第三季度消費繼續保持良好增長，增長由世界級品牌和新興市場引領。在歐洲、澳大利亞、日本和韓國等更發達的穀物市場，我們開始看到價格彈性走高。儘管如此，我們在第三季度在歐洲主要市場的消費量有所增長，Special K 在新活動和低糖 30% 的 Special K Granola 推出的幫助下恢復了增長。我們還增加了澳大利亞的消費量，隨著格蘭諾拉麥片產品的重新推出和擴大，我們在日本和韓國的消費量開始有所改善。在占我們每年國際穀物銷售額約一半的新興市場，消費增長對我們和該類別來說都保持強勁。在幻燈片上，請注意主要拉丁美洲市場和印度的穩定消費增長率。

Slide #27 shows the sustained double-digit organic net sales growth of our noodles and other category group. This is a $1 billion-plus business annually comprised of our distributor business in West Africa and our Kellogg's branded noodles business elsewhere in Africa and the Middle East. And as we've already discussed, this business again sustained exceptional growth in the third quarter, adding to a track record of consistent double-digit or high single-digit growth. As we've said before, this reflects the competitive advantage Multipro offers as well as the value of offering a Kellogg's product line at the lower end of the price pyramid.

幻燈片 #27 顯示了我們的麵條和其他類別組的持續兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。這是一項每年超過 10 億美元的業務，包括我們在西非的經銷商業務以及我們在非洲和中東其他地方的家樂氏品牌麵條業務。正如我們已經討論過的那樣，該業務在第三季度再次保持了超常增長，增加了持續兩位數或高個位數增長的記錄。正如我們之前所說，這反映了 Multipro 提供的競爭優勢以及在價格金字塔低端提供 Kellogg 產品線的價值。

Now let's look at frozen breakfast and Slide #28. Eggo is another world-class brand in our portfolio with about $750 million in annual net sales globally. In the U.S., the brand has sustained steady consumption growth this year despite being very constrained on capacity for both waffles and pancakes. But while we remain constrained on pancakes, we did add internal waffle capacity during the second quarter. This enabled our waffles to accelerate consumption gradually during the third quarter, even returning to volume growth. And this has lifted the brand's overall consumption growth sequentially, as shown on the slide. And another driver of this growth has been the launch of Liège-style waffles, an on-the-go offering that is proving to be incremental to the franchise.

現在讓我們看看冷凍早餐和幻燈片#28。 Eggo 是我們產品組合中的另一個世界級品牌，全球年淨銷售額約為 7.5 億美元。在美國，儘管華夫餅和煎餅的產能非常有限，但該品牌今年的消費仍保持穩定增長。但是，雖然我們在煎餅方面仍然受到限制，但我們確實在第二季度增加了內部華夫餅產能。這使我們的華夫餅在第三季度逐漸加速消費，甚至恢復了銷量增長。如幻燈片所示，這已連續提升了品牌的整體消費增長。這種增長的另一個驅動力是列日式華夫餅的推出，這是一種隨時隨地提供的產品，被證明是特許經營的增量。

Now let's look at North America cereal. Slide #29 shows how our consumption and share are recovering in the U.S. following our unfortunate fire and labor strike in late 2021. Recall that we rebuilt inventory, both our own and that of our retailers, faster than anticipated during the first half. In quarter 3, we have seen our share continue to recover across key brands, and this has continued into October. This reflects not only increased on-shelf availability, but also our gradual resumption of commercial activity behind these brands.

現在讓我們看看北美穀物。幻燈片 #29 顯示了我們在 2021 年末不幸的火災和罷工之後在美國的消費和份額如何恢復。回想一下，我們在上半年重建庫存的速度比我們自己和零售商的要快。在第三季度，我們看到我們在主要品牌中的份額繼續恢復，這種情況一直持續到 10 月。這不僅反映了貨架上的可用性增加，還反映了我們逐漸恢復這些品牌背後的商業活動。

The good news is that the category is showing robust growth right now, accelerating to the double digits in quarter 3 on the strength of increased prices and below-average elasticity. The even better news is that our consumption growth has accelerated even faster than the category, as you can see in the chart on the left. And our share is already back to its pre-strike level, as you can see on the chart on the right. Clearly, we are building momentum as we return to commercial activity. And while this chart focuses on our recovery in the U.S., it has been just as impressive in Canada, where we returned to share gains in the third quarter. And in both markets, we have a strong lineup of commercial activity continuing in the fourth quarter.

好消息是，由於價格上漲和低於平均水平的彈性，該類別目前正顯示出強勁的增長，在第三季度加速至兩位數。更好的消息是，我們的消費增長速度甚至快於品類，如左圖所示。正如您在右側圖表中所見，我們的份額已經回到罷工前的水平。顯然，隨著我們重返商業活動，我們正在建立勢頭。雖然這張圖表側重於我們在美國的複蘇，但在加拿大也同樣令人印象深刻，我們在第三季度重新分享了收益。在這兩個市場，我們都有強大的商業活動陣容在第四季度繼續進行。

Just a few of these are shown on Slide #30, ranging from innovation like Strawberry Frosted Flakes, to seasonal offerings like Halloween Rice Krispies and the perennial favorite, Elf on the Shelf, to bringing back indulgent licensed foods like Cinnabon and Little Debbie. We have our Mission Tiger program back in full swing, and we're experimenting with an innovative just-add-water product called Insta-bowls.

幻燈片 #30 上僅展示了其中的一些，從草莓糖霜片等創新產品，到萬聖節脆米脆餅等季節性產品和常年最受歡迎的貨架上的精靈，再到帶回令人放縱的許可食品，如 Cinnabon 和 Little Debbie。我們的 Mission Tiger 計劃已全面展開，我們正在試驗一種名為 Insta-bowls 的創新加水產品。

In short, we feel good about where we are in this business. We've restored inventory levels. We're back on shelf, and we are rapidly recovering share. In addition, we've turned back on our commercial programs. And equally importantly, we are making good early progress toward restoring profit margins in this business.

簡而言之，我們對自己在這項業務中所處的位置感覺良好。我們已經恢復了庫存水平。我們又上架了，我們正在迅速恢復份額。此外，我們已經關閉了我們的商業計劃。同樣重要的是，我們在恢復這項業務的利潤率方面取得了良好的早期進展。

We'll now turn to plant-based foods and Slide #31. For context, this business represents only about 2% of our total net sales, but it gets a lot of attention because of its promising long-term prospects and because of the recent slowdown of its category. This is a category that experienced the equivalent of a few years' worth of acceleration in a single year, 2020. It had already been in elevated growth with new entrants, new technologies and new space in stores. Then COVID hit, and product proliferation was soaked up by the surge in at-home demand, bringing penetration and buy rates up with it.

我們現在將轉向植物性食品和幻燈片#31。就上下文而言，這項業務僅占我們總淨銷售額的 2% 左右，但由於其充滿希望的長期前景以及最近該類別的放緩，它受到了很多關注。這一品類在 2020 年的一年內經歷了相當於幾年的加速增長。隨著新進入者、新技術和商店新空間的出現，它已經在高速增長。然後 COVID 來襲，產品激增被家庭需求的激增所吸收，從而提高了滲透率和購買率。

The category lapped that surge in 2021. And in 2022, it has experienced a pause in growth, and points of distribution have decreased in stores as many retailers consolidated into the frozen aisle. But household penetration remains above pre-COVID levels, with ample opportunities to return to consistent growth behind underlying consumer focus on health and environmental concerns. These are demand fundamentals that remain firmly in place for a long runway of growth.

該類別在 2021 年出現了激增。而在 2022 年，它經歷了增長的停頓，並且隨著許多零售商合併到冷凍通道中，商店的分銷點減少了。但家庭滲透率仍高於 COVID 之前的水平，在消費者關注健康和環境問題的基礎上，有充足的機會恢復持續增長。這些需求基本面在長期增長中保持穩固。

As you know, our Morningstar Farms brand has been severely impacted by supply disruptions at a key co-manufacturer this year. And this disruption has not yet been fully resolved in quarter 3 and has also forced us to prioritize SKUs. While we have not yet been able to fully resume commercial activity, we have been able to support products that are not capacity constrained. A good example is sausage and links, and we are generating double-digit consumption and good share growth in that segment. This supply disruption is a temporary issue, and we continue to work through it. The brand remains a leader in plant-based foods with strong plans and a new media campaign once it restores full supply. So despite near-term disruptions, this is a business that remains in good condition with excellent prospects.

如您所知，我們的 Morningstar Farms 品牌今年受到一家主要合作製造商供應中斷的嚴重影響。而且這種中斷在第三季度尚未完全解決，也迫使我們優先考慮 SKU。雖然我們尚未能夠完全恢復商業活動，但我們已經能夠支持不受容量限制的產品。一個很好的例子是香腸和鏈接，我們在該領域產生了兩位數的消費和良好的份額增長。這種供應中斷是一個暫時的問題，我們將繼續努力解決它。一旦恢復全部供應，該品牌仍然是植物性食品的領導者，擁有強大的計劃和新的媒體宣傳活動。因此，儘管近期出現了中斷，但這是一項保持良好狀態並具有良好前景的業務。

So with that, allow me to briefly summarize with Slide #33. I could not be prouder of our organization for how it has navigated through an incredibly volatile environment, identifying issues, resolving them and executing. Our people and culture truly are a competitive advantage for Kellogg. Our strategy is working, and our portfolio is showing its strength.

因此，請允許我用幻燈片 #33 簡要總結一下。我為我們的組織如何在一個令人難以置信的動盪環境中導航、發現問題、解決問題和執行而感到無比自豪。我們的員工和文化確實是家樂氏的競爭優勢。我們的戰略正在奏效，我們的投資組合正在顯示其實力。

We continue to deliver solid results, and we are again raising our outlook. Yet we're anything but complacent. We are working hard on a set of plans that will navigate through the current macro headwinds and enable us to drive balanced financial delivery again in 2023 and thereafter.

我們繼續取得穩健的業績，並且我們再次提高了我們的前景。然而，我們絕不自滿。我們正在努力製定一套計劃，以應對當前的宏觀逆風，使我們能夠在 2023 年及之後再次推動平衡的財務交付。

And with that, we'll open up the line for questions. Operator?

有了這個，我們將打開問題的線路。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Cody Ross with UBS.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的科迪羅斯。

You outpaced Nielsen consumption by roughly 4 points this quarter. How much of your 14% organic growth in North America was related to the cereal inventory replenishment? And do you expect to continue to ship above consumption moving forward?

本季度您的消費量比尼爾森高出大約 4 個百分點。您在北美 14% 的有機增長中有多少與穀物庫存補充有關？您是否預計未來出貨量將繼續超過消費量？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Cody. There's not really any meaningful difference between shipments and consumption. It's moved around a lot, obviously, because we had to rebuild inventory on cereal in quarter 1 and quarter 2. But we're pretty much right in balance right now. We may actually see some shipments come out in the fourth quarter because we're kind of back to where we want to be, but there's not really a meaningful thing to talk about when it comes to differences between shipments and consumption in North America or anywhere around the world for that matter.

是的。謝謝你的問題，科迪。出貨量和消費量之間並沒有真正意義上的區別。顯然，它已經發生了很大變化，因為我們不得不在第一季度和第二季度重建穀物庫存。但我們現在的平衡非常好。我們實際上可能會在第四季度看到一些出貨量，因為我們有點回到了我們想要的位置，但是當談到北美或任何地方的出貨量和消費之間的差異時，沒有什麼真正有意義的事情可談世界各地。

Got you. That's helpful. And then I just want to talk about the North American profit margin a little bit. The decline accelerated in the quarter. How did that compare to your expectations? And what were the key drivers in the quarter? And should we look at the third quarter profit margin as the trough for North America?

得到你。這很有幫助。然後我只想談談北美的利潤率。本季度下降加速。這與您的預期相比如何？本季度的主要驅動因素是什麼？我們是否應該將第三季度的利潤率視為北美的低谷？

Yes. I'll start, and I can turn it to Amit. But North America, if you look at the way they performed in the third quarter and year-to-date, it's pretty exceptional. I didn't really think we'd be talking about 14% organic net sales growth in North America, which is really outstanding. But inflation is running so very hot, that getting pricing to cover input costs, I think, is an exceptional achievement. And then you've got the bottlenecks and shortages, which are very difficult to price for, obviously, and to forecast. And so whether or not it's a trough on bottlenecks and shortages remains to be seen.

是的。我會開始的，我可以把它交給阿米特。但是北美，如果你看看他們在第三季度和年初至今的表現，那是非常不同尋常的。我真的不認為我們會談論北美 14% 的有機淨銷售額增長，這真的很出色。但通貨膨脹如此之高，以至於我認為通過定價來支付投入成本是一項非凡的成就。然後你就會遇到瓶頸和短缺，顯然很難為這些定價和預測。因此，這是否是瓶頸和短缺的低谷還有待觀察。

It stopped getting worse, but there's not a meaningful improvement in it. But the price/mix in North America was strong. Ability to cover cost was strong. The underlying brand performance was exceptionally strong. And so the outlook for North America is strong. It's been a terrific year.

它不再變得更糟，但沒有任何有意義的改善。但北美的價格/組合很強勁。成本支付能力強。潛在的品牌表現異常強勁。因此，北美的前景十分強勁。這是很棒的一年。

Amit, do you want to...

阿米特，你想...

Yes. Just a couple of other things, Cody. So one was we've seen input costs accelerate through the quarter. And I think we had talked previously of sequential improvement. We did see the sequential improvement in gross margins, but it was not as much as we expected. And really, the primary driver for that was acceleration of input costs. So we saw that happen. We've taken incremental action from a revenue growth management. I think within the quarter, there was probably a bit of a lag. So you're seeing the impact of that on margins. I think, as Steve mentioned, bottlenecks and shortages persisted.

是的。科迪，還有其他幾件事。所以一個是我們已經看到整個季度的投入成本加速。而且我認為我們之前已經談到了順序改進。我們確實看到了毛利率的連續改善，但並沒有我們預期的那麼多。實際上，其主要驅動力是投入成本的加速。所以我們看到了這種情況。我們已經從收入增長管理中採取了增量行動。我認為在本季度內，可能存在一些滯後。所以你看到了這對利潤率的影響。我認為，正如史蒂夫所說，瓶頸和短缺持續存在。

I think the other factor as well is we resumed -- as we had said, that SG&A would be back-end weighted, we've restored A&P behind cereal as we build back inventory. So you've seen that come through in the quarter as well, and we'd expect that in quarter 4 as well. So the SG&A has been kind of back-weighted this year.

我認為另一個因素也是我們恢復了——正如我們所說，SG&A 將是後端加權，我們已經恢復了 A&P 落後於穀物，因為我們建立了庫存。因此，您在本季度也看到了這一點，我們預計第四季度也會如此。所以今年 SG&A 有點偏重。

The next question is from the line of David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

I know there's always a lot of controversy and talk about stranded costs and the separation. If there's any sort of increased visibility on that, love to hear that. But also a question on Europe. The sales trends are positive, but I'm wondering how you're seeing price elasticity there. I see that volumes are down 8%. So any thoughts about, not just the price elasticity, but the ability to get through pricing going forward in Europe, would be helpful.

我知道總是有很多爭議和談論擱淺成本和分離。如果對此有任何提高的知名度，我很樂意聽到。但也是一個關於歐洲的問題。銷售趨勢是積極的，但我想知道您如何看待那裡的價格彈性。我看到銷量下降了 8%。因此，任何關於價格彈性以及通過歐洲定價的能力的任何想法都會有所幫助。

Yes. David, I'll start and Amit can add any color. Starting with the stranded costs, we're not prepared to talk about that today. We will be as we get into next year, but we continue to make very solid progress. I would remind you that we've got a lot of experience around this when we divested the portions of the Keebler business. We were very successful at extracting stranded costs. We will have the opportunity to have TSAs as well. And the business is growing very, very strongly. So we -- and the plans are moving forward very nicely. So when we get to the point where we can do that, we'll, of course, provide that visibility.

是的。大衛，我會開始，阿米特可以添加任何顏色。從擱淺成本開始，我們今天不准備談論它。進入明年，我們將繼續前進，但我們將繼續取得非常紮實的進展。我會提醒你，當我們剝離 Keebler 業務的部分時，我們在這方面有很多經驗。我們在提取擱淺成本方面非常成功。我們也將有機會擁有 TSA。業務增長非常非常強勁。所以我們 - 計劃進展得非常順利。因此，當我們達到可以做到這一點的程度時，我們當然會提供這種可見性。

In terms of Kellogg Europe, they continue to perform very, very well. This quarter was a tale of what they were lapping last year. So if you look at the operating profit being down, on a 2-year CAGR, it's actually up over 20% because of that lap. You also have the most impact coming from the stoppage in Russia, obviously, what's happening there. And so they're cycling that.

就凱洛格歐洲而言，他們繼續表現非常非常好。這個季度是他們去年的故事。因此，如果您查看營業利潤下降的情況，以 2 年的複合年增長率計算，由於那一圈，它實際上增長了 20% 以上。顯然，俄羅斯的停工對你的影響最大，那就是那裡正在發生的事情。所以他們正在循環。

In terms of pricing, the team has been very, very successful in executing revenue growth management. And in the most difficult environment in the world, they've done an exceptional job. We've got David, who runs the business there, doing a terrific job. Miranda Prins, who runs Continental Europe, has done an exceptional job with our customers, really putting together joint business plans with them into next year that help us cover the high inflation that exists there. So lots of good work happening in Europe, continued strong momentum despite exceptional headwinds.

在定價方面，該團隊在執行收入增長管理方面非常非常成功。在世界上最困難的環境中，他們做得非常出色。我們有大衛，他在那裡經營業務，做得非常好。經營歐洲大陸航空公司的米蘭達·普林斯 (Miranda Prins) 對我們的客戶做得非常出色，確實與他們一起制定了明年的聯合業務計劃，幫助我們應對那裡存在的高通脹。在歐洲發生瞭如此多的好工作，儘管遇到了特殊的逆風，但勢頭依然強勁。

In terms of elasticity, the one area where we're starting to see a little bit of return to normal in elasticity would be in cereal in Europe, in the U.K. Actually, it looked like it was starting in Continental Europe. But there's a lot of noise. So I wouldn't point to that as anything significant right now. There's a lot of variables in it, but it's the one area where elasticity is probably emerging faster than anywhere else in the world.

在彈性方面，我們開始看到彈性恢復正常的一個領域是歐洲的穀物，在英國。實際上，它看起來像是從歐洲大陸開始的。但是有很多噪音。所以我現在不會指出這是任何重要的事情。其中有很多變數，但這是彈性出現速度可能比世界上任何其他地方都快的一個領域。

the next question is from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

Steve, in North America Cereal, obviously, the fire and the strike were certainly disruptive, but I guess I'm curious if there was an opportunity to make any structural changes to how you compete as you return product to the shelf. Like in other words, was there an opportunity to come back with an even more optimized SKU assortment than before? Or as you return to commercial activity, what are you seeing in terms of ROIs on those activities, again, versus like before the strike?

史蒂夫，在北美穀物，顯然，火災和罷工肯定是破壞性的，但我想我很好奇，當你將產品退回貨架時，是否有機會對你的競爭方式進行任何結構性改變。換句話說，有沒有機會帶來比以前更優化的 SKU 分類？或者當您返回商業活動時，與罷工前相比，您再次看到這些活動的投資回報率如何？

Or maybe there are other structural elements that you're working on there that I may not be thinking of. And maybe I'm making too much of this, and the focus was simply on just getting product back on the shelf, but what I'm trying to do is think ahead of it from here about when this unit is ultimately on its own.

或者也許還有其他你正在研究的結構元素，而我可能沒有想到。也許我做的太多了，重點只是讓產品重新上架，但我想做的是從這裡提前考慮這個單元何時最終獨立。

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. I'd say we actually are emerging stronger from what was an incredibly trying time. Obviously, you have a major fire, and then you have a strike that lasts a full quarter. An exceptionally difficult environment. But we were confident that we could restore the business, and we have been sequentially. And now as we look forward, we're looking at even better year-over-year performance. And that's coming from some of the things that you mentioned.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。我想說的是，我們實際上正在從一段令人難以置信的艱難時期中變得更加強大。顯然，你有一場大火，然後你有一個持續整整四分之一的罷工。異常艱難的環境。但是我們有信心可以恢復業務，而且我們一直在按順序進行。現在，正如我們展望的那樣，我們正在尋找更好的同比表現。這來自你提到的一些事情。

We did prioritize SKUs. We cut out a number of tails, which allows us to consolidate some of our investment around our strongest brands. So some of the things I mentioned, Tony, the Tiger being back, lots of good promotional activity being back. The ROIs are rising for us, and you can see that in some of the shares of our leading brands. The pricing we've been and the revenue growth management has been exceptional behind those programs and those ROIs. Our shelf sets, if you walk the stores, look very, very good compared to where they looked only 6 months ago. So it is about prioritized SKUs, prioritized brand investment, getting the commercial activity back there. Our fourth quarter, we've got really good innovation coming through that's been well accepted. So I'd say the cereal business has emerged as a stronger business. And that's why you heard the optimism when we talk about that business going forward. It's been very strong. And in Canada, even stronger. So terrific job by the team.

我們確實優先考慮了 SKU。我們剪掉了一些尾巴，這使我們能夠圍繞我們最強大的品牌鞏固我們的一些投資。所以我提到的一些事情，托尼，老虎回來了，很多很好的促銷活動回來了。我們的投資回報率正在上升，您可以在我們領先品牌的一些份額中看到這一點。我們的定價和收入增長管理在這些計劃和投資回報率背後非常出色。我們的貨架套裝，如果您逛商店，與 6 個月前相比，它們看起來非常非常好。所以它是關於優先的 SKU，優先的品牌投資，讓商業活動回到那裡。我們的第四季度，我們已經獲得了非常好的創新，這些創新已經被廣泛接受。所以我想說穀物業務已經成為一個更強大的業務。這就是為什麼當我們談論該業務的未來時，您會聽到樂觀情緒。已經非常強大了。而在加拿大，甚至更強大。團隊的工作太棒了。

Next question is from the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉考夫曼。

You pointed to continued challenges on the supply chain and are seeing continued acceleration and inflation. So just wondering what your updated inflation expectation is for this year. And can you talk about what you're seeing in the supply chain and where you've seen slower improvement relative to [expectations]?

您指出供應鏈上的持續挑戰，並看到持續加速和通貨膨脹。所以只是想知道你今年更新的通脹預期是多少。您能否談談您在供應鏈中看到的情況以及相對於 [預期] 的改進速度較慢的地方？

Yes. I'll start on supply chain and turn it over to Amit on inflation, the first part of your question. On supply chain, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, it has not gotten any worse, right? So it's -- we were in a position where each quarter continue to accelerate in terms of disruptions, what we call things that get to the attention of our control tower. And right now, that stopped getting worse. I would say there's not -- as we look out on the horizon, there's not a lot of signals that it's going to get better anytime soon or significantly better. So we're operating in an environment that continues to be somewhat tumultuous. But the execution that we're able to bring forward has gotten better and better as we continue to get used to an environment with so many disruptions.

是的。我將從供應鏈開始，然後將其交給 Amit 討論通貨膨脹問題，這是您問題的第一部分。在供應鏈上，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，它並沒有變得更糟，對吧？所以它是 - 我們處於每個季度繼續加速中斷的位置，我們稱之為引起我們控制塔注意的事情。而現在，情況不再惡化。我會說沒有 - 當我們展望地平線時，沒有很多信號表明它會很快好轉或明顯好轉。因此，我們在一個仍然有些動蕩的環境中運營。但是，隨著我們繼續習慣有如此多中斷的環境，我們能夠提出的執行已經變得越來越好。

And Amit, do you want to talk about inflation?

還有阿米特，你想談談通貨膨脹嗎？

I think from an inflation standpoint, we did see meaningful acceleration during the quarter. So we saw input cost inflation at around the 20s -- into the 20s. And so I think from a full year standpoint -- and we expect similar levels of inflation in quarter 4 as well. And I think given the acceleration we've seen in quarter 3 into quarter 4, I think our full year inflation from the high teens is now kind of pushing close to the 20% level from an inflation standpoint.

我認為從通脹的角度來看，我們確實在本季度看到了有意義的加速。因此，我們看到 20 年代左右的投入成本膨脹——一直到 20 年代。所以我認為從全年的角度來看——我們預計第四季度也會出現類似的通脹水平。而且我認為鑑於我們在第三季度到第四季度看到的加速，我認為從通脹的角度來看，我們從十幾歲開始的全年通脹現在正接近 20% 的水平。

Great. And then are you expecting to -- or do you need to take incremental pricing to offset the inflation that you're seeing in the business? And how should we think about -- and how are you thinking about kind of the balance of incremental pricing versus your commentary around increasing elasticities in certain categories?

偉大的。然後您是否期望 - 或者您是否需要採取增量定價來抵消您在業務中看到的通貨膨脹？以及我們應該如何考慮 - 您如何考慮增量定價與您圍繞某些類別增加彈性的評論之間的平衡？

I think as always and as you've seen in our results, right, it's a combination of productivity. It's a combination of revenue growth management. And I think as you saw in our quarter 3 results, our price/mix accelerated during the quarter. So I think the teams are doing a terrific job navigating through what is a high cost inflation environment by taking incremental actions as needed.

我認為一如既往，正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣，對，這是生產力的結合。這是收入增長管理的結合。而且我認為正如您在我們的第三季度業績中看到的那樣，我們的價格/組合在本季度加速。因此，我認為團隊在通過根據需要採取增量行動來應對高成本通脹環境方面做得非常出色。

I would say that on gross margins, we saw sequential improvement -- despite all the inflation, we saw sequential improvement in quarter 3. And I think our expectation is that we will see margin improve and gross profit dollars improve in quarter 4 as we lap the fire and strike.

我想說的是，在毛利率方面，我們看到了連續的改善——儘管存在通貨膨脹，我們在第三季度看到了連續的改善。而且我認為我們的預期是，隨著我們的發展，我們將在第四季度看到利潤率和毛利潤的改善火災和罷工。

I think from a full year gross margin standpoint, our previous guidance was around 100 basis points decline. We'd expect that to be a bit more than the 100 basis points that we had guided to, but I think that gives you an indication that despite the higher inflation, the amount of incremental actions that the teams have taken and just the strength of our brands.

我認為從全年毛利率的角度來看，我們之前的指導是下降約 100 個基點。我們預計這將比我們指導的 100 個基點多一點，但我認為這表明儘管通貨膨脹率較高，但團隊採取的增量行動數量以及我們的品牌。

The next question is from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Chris Growe 和 Stifel。

Just had a couple of questions for you. The first one would just be to follow on a little bit on the questions around Europe. Just as we're getting a sense of the incremental elasticity in those markets, I know there's been other markets as well. Snacks was a little softer in its growth as well than I thought. Are you seeing that in snacks? Or was that more of the comp with the prior year?

剛剛有幾個問題要問你。第一個只是關注歐洲周圍的問題。正如我們對這些市場的增量彈性有所了解一樣，我知道還有其他市場。零食的增長也比我想像的要柔和一些。你在零食中看到了嗎？還是與前一年相比更多？

I think, Chris, it was more of the comp in the prior year. We're really not seeing elasticities in Europe. Our Snacks business led by Pringles is very, very strong. In fact, if you look at -- we stopped all shipments into Russia, as you know, and we quickly diverted all that. We were able to sell that volume elsewhere immediately, and we're still somewhat capacity constrained as the business had been so strong.

我認為，克里斯，這更多的是前一年的比賽。我們真的沒有看到歐洲的彈性。我們由 Pringles 領導的零食業務非常非常強大。事實上，如果你看一下 - 我們停止了所有運往俄羅斯的貨物，正如你所知，我們很快轉移了所有這些貨物。我們能夠立即在其他地方銷售該數量，但由於業務如此強勁，我們的產能仍然受到一定程度的限制。

It was up over 22 -- it was up almost 22% in the year ago quarter, Chris.

克里斯，它比去年同期增長了 22 多倍——它比去年同期增長了近 22%。

Right. I knew it's a tough comp. Do you -- have you indicated how much the volume drag in Europe there was from Russia -- not shipping into Russia?

正確的。我知道這是一場艱難的比賽。你 - 你有沒有指出歐洲有多少來自俄羅斯的銷量拖累 - 而不是運往俄羅斯？

Virtually all of Europe's volume declined.

幾乎所有歐洲的交易量都下降了。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And I had just one follow-on, which is in the AMEA division. The noodles and other business continues to grow very strongly along with the other businesses there. Is that a business that's growing volume as well as pricing? I know it's been a very inflationary environment. Are you seeing volume growth in that business as well?

好的。我只有一個後續，它在 AMEA 部門。麵條和其他業務與那裡的其他業務一起繼續強勁增長。這是一個業務量和價格都在增長的業務嗎？我知道這是一個非常通貨膨脹的環境。您是否也看到該業務的銷量增長？

It's a pricing story there, Chris. It's almost all price. In fact, it is all price. And our ability to take that level of price has been obviously impressive, but it's a pricing story.

克里斯，這是一個定價故事。這幾乎是所有的價格。其實，一切都是代價。我們承受這種價格水平的能力顯然令人印象深刻，但這是一個定價故事。

The next question is from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的羅伯特莫斯科。

I think Pamela tried to get at this question. But into 2023, I would expect you'd have continued high levels of inflation given what you're saying about the acceleration in third quarter. Would it be fair to assume double-digit inflation in 2023? And then maybe can you give us a little more color as to why it accelerated in 3Q? I mean we're looking at spot values for commodities, and they don't seem to be going up higher sequentially. Why is your cost going higher?

我認為帕梅拉試圖回答這個問題。但到 2023 年，考慮到您所說的第三季度加速增長，我預計您將繼續保持高水平的通脹。假設 2023 年出現兩位數的通貨膨脹是否公平？然後也許你能給我們更多一點關於為什麼它在第三季度加速的顏色？我的意思是我們正在研究商品的現貨價格，它們似乎並沒有連續上漲。為什麼你的成本越來越高？

Yes. So Rob, I would say you definitely should plan on double-digit inflation going into next year, and I don't think that's going to be unique to Kellogg. In fact, I know it's not going to be unique to Kellogg. If you look at spot prices, it doesn't always tell the full story. Year-over-year, price changes, even in spot, are still up double digits. Corn, up over 20%. Cooking oil is up over 20%. Wheat in double digits. Diesel, nearing 50%. So price -- the whole -- this inflation was going to be transitory. It Was always, obviously, ridiculous. And so we continue to see strong inflation in ingredients in co-man, in packaging across the board.

是的。所以 Rob，我會說你絕對應該計劃明年實現兩位數的通脹，我認為這不會是 Kellogg 獨有的。事實上，我知道這不是家樂氏獨有的。如果您查看現貨價格，它並不總是能說明全部情況。與去年同期相比，價格變化，即使是現貨，仍然是兩位數。玉米，上漲超過20%。食用油價格上漲超過 20%。小麥雙位數。柴油，接近 50%。所以價格 - 整體 - 這種通貨膨脹將是暫時的。顯然，這總是荒謬的。因此，我們繼續看到共同包裝中的成分出現強勁的通貨膨脹，全麵包裝。

So I think as a total country and globe, we need to prepare for the same type of inflation. And this is double-digit inflation on top of the inflation we've seen this year. So it's a pretty significant macroeconomic event.

所以我認為作為一個國家和全球，我們需要為同樣類型的通貨膨脹做好準備。這是我們今年看到的通脹之上的兩位數通脹。所以這是一個非常重要的宏觀經濟事件。

Okay. Maybe a follow-up. It seems like there's more kind of knock-on costs like labor, energy, co-packing. Is it more difficult to pass along those costs to retailers? Or is there a good understanding that, hey, that's just the rise in cost of business?

好的。也許是一個後續。似乎還有更多的連鎖成本，如勞動力、能源、聯合包裝。將這些成本轉嫁給零售商是否更困難？或者是否有一個很好的理解，嘿，這只是業務成本的上升？

Yes. I think we've largely been successful, right, in covering inflation on our input costs and our packaging costs, right? And so I think what -- from a disruption standpoint, that's probably -- and some of the unplanned because of supply chain bottlenecks and some of those inefficiencies are probably the ones that it's hard to focus and how to plan around that we've probably not been able to pass on.

是的。我認為我們在很大程度上成功地彌補了投入成本和包裝成本的通貨膨脹，對吧？所以我認為 - 從中斷的角度來看，這可能是 - 由於供應鏈瓶頸和其中一些效率低下而導致的一些計劃外可能是難以集中註意力的問題，以及我們可能已經圍繞這些問題進行計劃的問題無法傳遞。

The next question is from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

I just wanted to clarify and make sure I heard correctly what you were saying about the European volumes. I think you said that almost all of the downturn in European volume this quarter was because of the Russia situation. But I also maybe heard you say that, that volume was sold elsewhere. So I may have just heard that wrong. I was just trying to get a sense of how to think about that as a put and take maybe.

我只是想澄清一下，並確保我正確地聽到了你所說的關於歐洲卷的內容。我想你說過本季度歐洲交易量的幾乎所有下滑都是由於俄羅斯的情況。但我也可能聽到你說，那本書在別處賣過。所以我可能只是聽錯了。我只是想了解如何將其視為看跌期權。

So I think in the quarter, right, when you are lapping -- when you compare the Russia business itself, right, we stopped shipments in. So yes, all the decline was driven by Russia -- by that -- by the Russia stop shipments. I think the teams have done a remarkable job, right, in terms of finding alternative uses of that volume, not just in Europe, but around the world, into AMEA as well. And so I think we've been able to work through that through the network.

所以我認為在本季度，當你在研磨時——當你比較俄羅斯業務本身時，對，我們停止了出貨。所以是的，所有的下降都是由俄羅斯驅動的——由此——俄羅斯停止出貨量。我認為團隊在尋找該卷的替代用途方面做得非常出色，不僅在歐洲，而且在世界各地，在 AMEA 也是如此。所以我認為我們已經能夠通過網絡解決這個問題。

And then quick follow-up, Amit, just on the -- and thank you for the guidance regarding pension income into the fourth quarter. I understand a lot can change between now and next year, and you're not guiding to '23, but you did mention that we should expect an incremental headwind in '23. So I'm just trying to get a sense for how big that headwind might be given that we have obviously limited information about where the stock market and interest rates will be. But are there any rough numbers we can kind of model in just in comparison to the $38 million other income line we saw this past quarter?

然後快速跟進，Amit，就在 - 感謝您對第四季度養老金收入的指導。我知道從現在到明年之間會發生很多變化，而且您並沒有指導 23 年，但您確實提到我們應該期待 23 年的逆風增加。因此，鑑於我們對股市和利率走勢的信息顯然有限，我只是想了解這種逆風可能有多大。但是，與我們在上個季度看到的 3800 萬美元的其他收入線相比，我們可以模擬出任何粗略的數字嗎？

Yes. So I think we'd firstly say we'd expect a similar amount for quarter 4, right? So I think that's the first thing. Obviously, it depends really on what happens on markets because the remeasurement would really be at the year-end and it's where the markets are at the end of the year.

是的。所以我認為我們首先會說我們預計第 4 季度會有類似的金額，對吧？所以我認為這是第一件事。顯然，這實際上取決於市場上發生的情況，因為重新測量實際上將在年底進行，而這正是市場在年底時所處的位置。

What we've seen this year is, like I said, it's about on 2 of our plans. They're roughly around 50% of our value, of our pension assets, and you've seen it for about half a year. So we'd expect a full year impact next year. We need to remeasure all the plans, but it really depends on where markets are at the end of the year. So it's hard to forecast. And we'll obviously talk a lot more about that when we are guiding for '23 in our February call. And this is not unique to us. I think it's driven by what's happening in interest rates as well as markets. And it's, of course, nonoperating and noncash.

我們今年看到的是，就像我說的，這與我們的兩個計劃有關。它們大約占我們價值的 50%，是我們養老金資產的 50%，而且你已經看到了大約半年。因此，我們預計明年會產生全年影響。我們需要重新衡量所有計劃，但這實際上取決於年底市場的情況。所以很難預測。當我們在 2 月的電話會議中為 23 年提供指導時，我們顯然會更多地討論這個問題。這不是我們獨有的。我認為這是由利率和市場發生的事情驅動的。當然，它是非經營性和非現金的。

The next question is from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Sandler。

Just wanted to come back to the revenue guidance. And it just looks like the 10 or so percent on the full year would suggest something around a 7% organic growth in the fourth quarter. I imagine, certainly, there's some conservatism, but what would drive a deceleration like that? Is there stepped up promotional spending? Is it just your assumptions around elasticities? Can you just help us unpack some of how you're thinking about that?

只是想回到收入指導。看起來全年 10% 左右表明第四季度有機增長約為 7%。我想，當然，有一些保守主義，但什麼會導致這樣的減速？是否增加了促銷支出？僅僅是你對彈性的假設嗎？你能幫我們解開你的一些想法嗎？

Yes. The guidance for the quarter 4 is roughly in line with the year-to-date rate at double-digit level. So it's -- yes. So it's similar to that. You would see the Russia impact as we saw in quarter 3 and quarter 4 as well. So as we cycle to stop shipments of Pringles into Russia. And so directionally, it's in line with the year-to-date. As always, we've made some assumptions around rising pricing elasticity. So we'll see how that plays out.

是的。第 4 季度的指引大致與年初至今的兩位數水平一致。所以它是 - 是的。所以它與此類似。你會看到俄羅斯的影響，就像我們在第三季度和第四季度看到的那樣。因此，當我們騎自行車阻止將品客薯片運往俄羅斯時。因此，在方向上，它與年初至今一致。與往常一樣，我們圍繞價格彈性上升做出了一些假設。所以我們將看看結果如何。

I think also from a lap standpoint, quarter 4 last year was when we took the most revenue growth management actions last year. So we'd be lapping that. So I think there are a couple of factors there. But broadly, I'd say that the quarter 4 guide is in line with the year-to-date rates.

我也認為，從單圈的角度來看，去年第四季度是我們去年採取的收入增長管理措施最多的時候。所以我們會研磨那個。所以我認為有幾個因素。但總的來說，我會說第 4 季度指南與年初至今的利率一致。

Okay. That's helpful. And just on the developed markets outside the U.S. You touched on the increases in the cereal elasticities. Just as far as how the consumer behavior is evolving, do you have a sense how much they're trading down to something like private label or exiting the category? Or what's the response been when you see these elasticities growing?

好的。這很有幫助。就在美國以外的發達市場，您談到了穀物彈性的增加。就消費者行為的演變而言，您是否知道他們有多少降價為自有品牌或退出該類別？或者當你看到這些彈性增長時，你的反應是什麼？

Yes. It hasn't been interestingly trading down. So -- and by the way, it's still low levels of price elasticity. So we're just saying this is the first maybe early indicators that it's returning in some of those regions, but still low, still not back to historical levels. And when you look at private label, there's a lot of variables all around the world. But by and large, we see no empirical evidence of private label growing in any of our markets, really in any of our categories in a meaningful way. We see, in fact, quite the opposite in some markets. And where they are growing, they tend to be growing off year ago comparisons, which were challenged. And so that's really what we're seeing.

是的。它的交易並不有趣。所以——順便說一句，價格彈性仍然很低。所以我們只是說這可能是其中一些地區正在恢復的第一個早期指標，但仍然很低，仍未回到歷史水平。當您查看自有品牌時，世界各地都有很多變數。但總的來說，我們沒有看到任何經驗證據表明自有品牌在我們的任何市場中增長，實際上在我們的任何類別中以有意義的方式增長。事實上，在某些市場中，我們看到的情況恰恰相反。在他們成長的地方，他們往往會在一年前的比較中成長，這是受到挑戰的。這就是我們所看到的。

The concern, I think, overall is just the absolute nature of household budgets. And as inflation throughout the economy continues to rage, how that affects the absolute dollars available for households. But what you see in our categories is we tend to be affected less than discretionary consumer goods and travel and dining out and things of that nature. So -- but it's one to watch. We do not take it for granted. We watch our price gaps very much. We continue to invest in our brands. We're not complacent by any means, but we just haven't seen the empirical evidence that private label is making meaningful inroads in any of our categories or geographies.

我認為，總體而言，擔憂只是家庭預算的絕對性質。隨著整個經濟體的通貨膨脹繼續肆虐，這將如何影響家庭可用的絕對美元。但是你在我們的類別中看到的是，我們受到的影響往往小於可自由支配的消費品、旅行和外出就餐以及類似性質的事情。所以 - 但這是一個值得關注的。我們不認為這是理所當然的。我們非常關注我們的價格差距。我們繼續投資於我們的品牌。我們絕不自滿，但我們只是沒有看到經驗證據表明自有品牌正在我們的任何類別或地區取得有意義的進展。

The next question is from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Just 2 quick follow-ups. So just 2 quick follow-ups. Amit, as I guess, with SG&A spending coming back in the second half, is the '23 full year SG&A base a reasonably good base to think of for next year? Or did you end this year still not spending at a normalized level?

只需 2 次快速跟進。所以只需 2 次快速跟進。我猜阿米特，隨著 SG&A 支出在下半年回升，'23 年全年 SG&A 基礎是否是明年值得考慮的一個相當好的基礎？還是您今年年底仍未達到正常水平？

I think we are pleased with the level of spending. I think the phasing -- and we think we are spending competitively in the marketplace to drive the brands. I think there was some phasing, obviously, between the first half and the second half. But overall, from a full year standpoint, right, we are pleased with where we are.

我認為我們對支出水平感到滿意。我認為是分階段的——我們認為我們在市場上進行有競爭力的支出來推動品牌發展。我認為在上半場和下半場之間顯然存在一些階段性。但總的來說，從全年的角度來看，對，我們對目前的情況感到滿意。

Okay. And then just second one -- last one is just related to the discussion about the pension remeasurement and the effect on the P&L. Is there any -- are there any cash consequences just given where markets have moved? Is there -- are you fully funded? Will you need to put cash in? Just trying to understand if there's going to be any cash consequences related to that.

好的。然後是第二個——最後一個是關於養老金重新計量和對損益的影響的討論。是否有任何 - 是否有任何現金後果只是考慮到市場的變化？有沒有 - 你有足夠的資金嗎？你需要存入現金嗎？只是想了解是否會產生與此相關的任何現金後果。

No cash consequences really. I mean I think the level of funding -- because both your assets and your liabilities go down, so your level of funding is -- it moves a little bit, but not meaningfully. So this is really more driven by accounting. And like I said, it's noncash, nonoperating. And I think the level of funding in the pension plans doesn't change meaningfully.

真的沒有現金後果。我的意思是，我認為融資水平——因為你的資產和負債都下降了，所以你的融資水平——它會移動一點，但沒有意義。所以這實際上更多地是由會計驅動的。就像我說的，它是非現金的，非經營性的。而且我認為養老金計劃中的資金水平並沒有發生有意義的變化。

Operator, we might have time for one last question.

接線員，我們可能有時間回答最後一個問題。

The final question is from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital.

最後一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Nik Modi。

The question is just -- I know, obviously, stranded costs or something you're still looking into, but I was curious if you had a view yet or a strategy on what you're going to do on the supply chain side in terms of which business is actually going to own the trucks, just some of that stuff. Will you have a TSA agreement? Just was curious if you had any developments on that front.

問題只是 - 我知道，顯然，擱淺成本或您仍在研究的東西，但我很好奇您是否對您將在供應鏈方面做什麼有看法或策略其中的企業實際上將擁有卡車，只是其中的一些東西。你會有 TSA 協議嗎？只是好奇你在這方面是否有任何進展。

And then from a consumer insight standpoint, will the cereal business have to develop its own system? Or will you be able to leverage existing insight from the snacking company?

然後從消費者洞察的角度來看，穀物業務是否必須開發自己的系統？或者您能否利用零食公司的現有洞察力？

If I understand the question, Nik, again, next year, we'll be providing much more transparent information on it. In terms of things like who owns the trucks, we outsource the vast majority of our logistics right now. So we'll be working through warehousing and all those types of things. But when you look at the scale of both of our businesses, they're pretty scaled businesses. So it's -- we're not going to be running half truckloads anywhere. We'll be running full truckloads, and it's the work that's being done right now. And yes, there will be TSA agreements between the businesses, mainly the snacks business providing TSAs to the cereal co.

如果我理解這個問題，尼克，明年，我們將提供更透明的信息。就誰擁有卡車之類的事情而言，我們現在將絕大多數物流外包。所以我們將處理倉儲和所有這些類型的事情。但是，當您查看我們兩家業務的規模時，它們的規模都相當大。所以它 - 我們不會在任何地方運行半卡車。我們將滿載而歸，這是目前正在完成的工作。是的，企業之間會有 TSA 協議，主要是零食企業向穀物公司提供 TSA。

In terms of things like IT, the classic way to do this is you typically clone systems and then separate, and we've got a lot of experts helping us with that. A number of us have been through these things before and are -- we got a lot of experience at it.

就 IT 之類的事情而言，執行此操作的經典方法是您通常克隆系統然後分離，我們有很多專家幫助我們解決這個問題。我們中的許多人以前都經歷過這些事情，而且現在——我們在這方面有很多經驗。

So a lot of work going on right now, but what you should hear from us is a very, very high degree of confidence that the work is progressing exactly as we expected and that we have a high degree of confidence in the value creation opportunity that exists, and that's exactly why we're doing it.

所以現在有很多工作正在進行，但你應該從我們那裡聽到的是非常、非常高的信心，相信工作進展完全符合我們的預期，並且我們對創造價值的機會充滿信心存在，這正是我們這樣做的原因。

Operator, we are at the hour here. So everybody, thank you for your interest. Thank you for your interest. And if you do have follow-ups, please feel free to call.

接線員，我們到了這個時間。所以大家，謝謝你的興趣。感謝您的關注。如果您有後續跟進，請隨時致電。

That concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

電話會議就此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。