家樂氏 (K) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the Kellogg Company's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。歡迎來到家樂氏公司 2022 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I will turn the call over to John Renwick, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning for Kellogg Company. Mr. Renwick, you may begin your call.

此時，我將把電話轉給 Kellogg Company 投資者關係和企業規劃副總裁 John Renwick。倫威克先生，您可以開始通話了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for a review of our first quarter results and an update on our outlook for 2022. I'm joined this morning by Steve Cahillane, our Chairman and CEO; and Amit Banati, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線員。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們的第一季度業績並更新我們對 2022 年的展望。今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫卡希蘭 (Steve Cahillane) 加入了我們的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Amit Banati。

Slide #3 shows our forward-looking statements disclaimer. As you are aware, certain statements made today, such as projections for Kellogg Company's future performance, are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the third slide of this presentation as well as to our public SEC filings.

幻燈片 #3 顯示了我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。如您所知，今天做出的某些陳述，例如對 Kellogg 公司未來業績的預測，屬於前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預測結果大不相同。有關可能導致這些結果不同的因素的更多信息，請參閱本演示文稿的第三張幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件。

This is a particular note during the current COVID-19 pandemic and supply disruptions when the length and severity of these issues and resultant economic and business impacts are so difficult to predict.

在當前 COVID-19 大流行和供應中斷期間，當這些問題的長度和嚴重性以及由此產生的經濟和商業影響難以預測時，這是一個特別的注意事項。

A recording of today's webcast and supporting documents will be archived for at least 90 days on the Investor page of kelloggcompany.com. As always, when referring to our results and outlook, unless otherwise noted, we will be referring to them on an organic basis for net sales and on a currency-neutral adjusted basis for operating profit and earnings per share.

今天的網絡直播和支持文件的錄音將在 kelloggcompany.com 的投資者頁面上存檔至少 90 天。與往常一樣，在提及我們的業績和展望時，除非另有說明，否則我們將在淨銷售額的有機基礎上以及在營業利潤和每股收益的貨幣中性調整基礎上提及它們。

And now I'll turn it over to Steve.

現在我將把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to be able to report another good quarter, delivering solid results even ahead of plan by sustaining growth momentum across our international businesses and our North America snacks brands, realizing price and productivity amidst decades high inflation and executing with agility. After all, we are navigating through what I think you would all agree continues to be an extremely challenging operating environment. The situation in Ukraine only accelerated cost inflation and exacerbated the global economy's bottlenecks and shortages. It also prompted us to suspend all shipments and investments into Russia and to identify new sources for certain ingredients.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。我們很高興能夠報告另一個良好的季度，通過保持我們的國際業務和北美零食品牌的增長勢頭，在數十年的高通脹和敏捷執行中實現價格和生產力，甚至提前實現了穩健的業績。畢竟，我們正在經歷我認為你們都會同意的仍然是一個極具挑戰性的運營環境。烏克蘭局勢只會加速成本膨脹，加劇全球經濟的瓶頸和短缺。這也促使我們暫停對俄羅斯的所有運輸和投資，並為某些成分尋找新的來源。

Meanwhile, the team has done an excellent job of quickly restoring and ramping up production in our U.S. cereal plants following the fire and strike of last year's second half. Our inventory is gradually building toward normal levels as planned, enabling us to start replenishing retailer inventories earlier than expected in the first quarter. To be able to affirm our full year earnings guidance is a testament to our strategy, our brands and our people.

與此同時，在去年下半年發生火災和罷工之後，我們的美國穀物工廠在迅速恢復和提高產量方面做得非常出色。我們的庫存正按計劃逐步向正常水平建設，使我們能夠比第一季度的預期更早地開始補充零售商庫存。能夠確認我們的全年收益指引是對我們戰略、品牌和員工的證明。

Our Deploy for Growth strategy shown on Slide #5 is working. This strategy is still as appropriate and effective as ever, even as occasions shift and the operating environment evolves. We continue to emphasize occasions and build on our world-class brands. We continue to see the benefits of our reshaped portfolio. And through extreme supply challenges, we continue to focus on service and in-store effectiveness.

我們在幻燈片 #5 中展示的“為增長而部署”戰略正在發揮作用。即使情況發生變化和運營環境發生變化，這種策略仍然像以往一樣適當和有效。我們繼續強調場合，並以我們的世界級品牌為基礎。我們繼續看到我們重組的投資組合的好處。通過極端的供應挑戰，我們繼續專注於服務和店內效率。

Behind all these growth boosters are capabilities that we have strengthened from data and analytics to e-commerce, to revenue growth management, to a robust innovation pipeline. You're seeing the benefits of these capabilities and our actions and results. Simply put, the strategy is working.

在所有這些增長助推器的背後，是我們從數據和分析到電子商務、收入增長管理以及強大的創新渠道的能力得到了加強。您將看到這些功能的好處以及我們的行動和結果。簡而言之，該策略正在奏效。

We remain equally focused on Better Days, our ESG strategy. Actions are louder than words. Slide #6 offers some examples of our ESG activities during the first quarter. They reflect continued action on various elements of ESG as we remain committed as ever to our values and doing what is right for the planet and for our communities.

我們仍然同樣關注更好的日子，我們的 ESG 戰略。行動勝於雄辯。幻燈片 #6 提供了我們在第一季度開展的 ESG 活動的一些示例。它們反映了對 ESG 各個要素的持續行動，因為我們一如既往地致力於我們的價值觀，並為地球和我們的社區做正確的事情。

Sticking to our strategy and focusing on execution is resulting in sustained top line momentum, as you can see on Slide #7. We had restored top line growth in 2019, experienced a pandemic-related acceleration in 2020 and yet sustained this strong growth in 2021 despite what we were lapping. And in quarter 1 of this year, even with difficult comparisons, we continue to exceed our long-term target of 1% to 3% net sales growth with organic growth of more than 4%.

正如您在幻燈片 #7 中看到的那樣，堅持我們的戰略並專注於執行會帶來持續的頂線勢頭。我們在 2019 年恢復了收入增長，在 2020 年經歷了與大流行相關的加速增長，但在 2021 年保持了這種強勁增長，儘管我們一直在努力。在今年第一季度，即使很難進行比較，我們仍繼續超過我們 1% 至 3% 的淨銷售額增長的長期目標，有機增長超過 4%。

I'll call out 2 key elements that are behind this momentum. The first is our reshaped portfolio. Our largest portfolio segment, the Developed Market Snacks, continued to generate strong growth led by world-class brands like Pringles, Cheez-It and others. And our emerging markets collectively sustained double-digit growth. So even in a quarter when one of our businesses, North America cereal, was notably soft, declining 10% year-on-year because of a lack of inventory, this was more than offset by momentum in the rest of our portfolio.

我將指出這一勢頭背後的兩個關鍵要素。首先是我們重塑的投資組合。我們最大的產品組合部門，發達市場零食，在 Pringles、Cheez-It 等世界級品牌的帶動下繼續實現強勁增長。我們的新興市場共同保持了兩位數的增長。因此，即使在我們的一項業務北美穀物由於缺乏庫存而顯著疲軟，同比下降 10% 的季度內，這也被我們其他投資組合的勢頭所抵消。

And the second element is price realization. In an environment in which cost inflation is too high to cover with productivity alone, we have leveraged our enhanced revenue growth management capabilities to realize price effectively. We've been realizing price ever since cost inflation began to accelerate back in the second half of 2020, and we have accelerated as the market-driven cost inflation worsened.

第二個要素是價格實現。在成本膨脹太高而無法僅靠生產力覆蓋的環境中，我們利用我們增強的收入增長管理能力來有效地實現價格。自從 2020 年下半年成本通脹開始加速以來，我們一直在實現價格，並且隨著市場驅動的成本通脹惡化，我們已經加速。

The result of all of this strategy, executional focus and sustained momentum is another quarter of delivering results and a firm full year outlook and increased cash to shareowners, as discussed on Slide #8. We grew our net sales faster than we had anticipated, and we delivered more operating profit than we had projected. Our earnings per share and cash flow also came in ahead of our plan. This puts us in a good position. It allows us to affirm earnings guidance for the full year as an improved net sales outlook covers the impacts of accelerated cost inflation and supply disruptions, including Russia and Ukraine. It also enables us to increase the cash return to shareowners, which we have done both in the form of accelerated share buybacks and an increased dividend.

正如幻燈片 #8 所討論的，所有這一戰略、執行重點和持續勢頭的結果是又一個季度實現了業績和堅定的全年展望，並增加了股東的現金。我們的淨銷售額增長速度比我們預期的要快，我們的營業利潤也比我們預期的要多。我們的每股收益和現金流也超出了我們的計劃。這使我們處於有利位置。它使我們能夠確認全年的盈利指引，因為改善的淨銷售前景涵蓋了加速成本通脹和供應中斷的影響，包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。它還使我們能夠增加對股東的現金回報，我們以加速股票回購和增加股息的形式做到了這一點。

So with that introduction, let me now turn it over to Amit, who will explain our results and outlook in more detail.

因此，有了這個介紹，現在讓我把它交給 Amit，他將更詳細地解釋我們的結果和展望。

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. As Steve said, we're off to a good start to 2022. We'll start with a brief summary of our quarter 1 financial results on Slide #10. Our net sales growth came on top of similarly good growth in the year earlier quarter and is tracking ahead of our previous full year guidance. As expected, operating profit declined against last year's double-digit gain, but it should be noted that the year-on-year decline was entirely related to the wraparound impact of the fire and strike we experienced in 2021.

謝謝，史蒂夫，大家早上好。正如史蒂夫所說，我們在 2022 年有了一個良好的開端。我們將從幻燈片 #10 上的第一季度財務業績的簡短摘要開始。我們的淨銷售額增長是在去年同期同樣良好的增長基礎之上的，並且正在跟踪我們之前的全年指導。正如預期的那樣，營業利潤與去年的兩位數增長相比有所下降，但應該注意的是，同比下降完全與我們在 2021 年經歷的火災和罷工的全面影響有關。

Earnings per share also exceeded our expectations, reflecting the better operating profit and with unfavorability in other income, offset by some discrete favorable items in our tax rate. Cash flow came in ahead of plan and significantly higher than last year.

每股收益也超出了我們的預期，反映了更好的營業利潤和其他收入的不利因素，被我們稅率中的一些離散的有利項目所抵消。現金流量超預期，明顯高於去年。

Slide #11 lays out the components of our net sales growth in quarter 1. Volume was down year-on-year due to lapping a strong 2-year CAGR of nearly 4% but also due to lacking inventory in certain businesses going into this year, most notably in our North America cereal business. In fact, North America cereal volume decline represented almost half of our total company's year-on-year volume decline in the quarter. We also surprised elasticity resuming in many markets just as we have been forecasting, although still running well below historical levels.

幻燈片 #11 列出了我們在第一季度的淨銷售額增長的組成部分。銷量同比下降，原因是 2 年復合年增長率接近 4%，但也由於進入今年的某些業務缺乏庫存，最引人注目的是我們的北美穀物業務。事實上，北美穀物銷量下降幾乎佔本季度公司總銷量同比下降的一半。正如我們一直在預測的那樣，我們還對許多市場的彈性恢復感到驚訝，儘管仍遠低於歷史水平。

Price/mix grew nearly 10% year-on-year, an acceleration from recent quarters as we continue to work to offset market-driven cost inflation. This price realization is predominantly price as we continue to implement revenue growth management actions in all 4 regions with a much smaller contribution coming from a mix shift towards snacks. The result was organic basis net sales growth of over 4% year-on-year, another strong quarterly performance that continues to exceed our long-term target. This was better than forecast, principally because of less price elasticity than expected but also because of sooner-than-anticipated replenishment of trade inventories in North America cereal, at least some of which could be considered timing-related. Foreign currency translation clipped nearly 2 percentage points of net sales growth in the quarter, with the U.S. dollar strengthening year-on-year against virtually all of our major currencies.

隨著我們繼續努力抵消市場驅動的成本通脹，價格/組合同比增長近 10%，較最近幾個季度有所加速。這種價格實現主要是價格，因為我們繼續在所有 4 個地區實施收入增長管理行動，而混合轉向零食的貢獻要小得多。結果是有機基礎淨銷售額同比增長超過 4%，這是另一個強勁的季度業績，繼續超過我們的長期目標。這好於預期，主要是因為價格彈性低於預期，還因為北美穀物貿易庫存的補充比預期的要快，至少其中一些可以被認為與時間有關。外幣折算使本季度的淨銷售額增長減少了近 2 個百分點，美元兌幾乎所有主要貨幣的匯率均同比走強。

Slide #12 shows our gross profit in dollars. As anticipated, our gross profit declined year-on-year, principally because of supply disruption. The good news is that productivity and revenue growth management continued to mostly cover the market-driven cost inflation despite the latter accelerating again in the quarter. This is what we can manage, and we've done a good job of it.

幻燈片 #12 顯示了我們以美元計的毛利潤。正如預期的那樣，我們的毛利潤同比下降，主要是因為供應中斷。好消息是生產力和收入增長管理繼續主要覆蓋市場驅動的成本通脹，儘管後者在本季度再次加速。這是我們能做到的，而且我們做得很好。

The single largest driver of our gross profit decline was a transitory impact of the fire and strike we experienced in the second half of last year. This impact reflects not only lost sales year-on-year, but significant costs as well. On top of this are the economy-wide bottlenecks and shortages that are expected to persist at least through the first half. These 2 factors accounted for almost all of our year-on-year decline in gross profit dollars in quarter 1 and about half of the margin contraction. These are transitory factors and should diminish as the year progresses.

我們毛利潤下降的最大單一驅動因素是我們在去年下半年經歷的火災和罷工的暫時影響。這種影響不僅反映了同比銷售額的損失，還反映了巨大的成本。除此之外，預計至少會持續到上半年的經濟瓶頸和短缺。這兩個因素幾乎佔了我們第一季度毛利潤同比下降的全部原因，以及利潤率收縮的大約一半。這些都是暫時的因素，應該隨著時間的推移而減少。

The rest of the margin contraction was related to mix. As we've discussed, our only meaningful mix headwind is the shift towards emerging markets, and particularly toward our AMEA region and its Nigerian distributor business, Multipro. In quarter 1, this mix shift towards AMEA was especially pronounced. As we've often stated, this mix shift does not bother us because our growth in emerging markets and in Multipro are not cannibalizing any of our higher-margin developed markets businesses, which brings us to operating profit on Slide #13.

其餘的利潤率收縮與混合有關。正如我們所討論的，我們唯一有意義的組合逆風是向新興市場的轉變，特別是向我們的 AMEA 地區及其尼日利亞經銷商業務 Multipro 的轉變。在第一季度，這種向 AMEA 的混合轉變尤為明顯。正如我們經常所說的那樣，這種混合轉變並不困擾我們，因為我們在新興市場和 Multipro 的增長並沒有蠶食我們任何利潤率較高的發達市場業務，這使我們在幻燈片 #13 上獲得了營業利潤。

Despite transitory supply disruptions, our operating profit remains on an upward trajectory, owing primarily to higher net sales. With our supply constraints in many of our businesses, most notably in North America cereal, our advertising and promotion investment was much lower than usual in quarter 1. As we discussed last quarter, this A&P investment is expected to be restored gradually across the year in line with our recovering supply. The result of our lower gross profit was a year-on-year decline in operating profit, which was also up against a double-digit growth comparison. Importantly, though, our quarter 1 operating profit was still higher than that of quarter 1 2020 and even quarter 1 2019, sustaining an upward trajectory.

儘管供應暫時中斷，但我們的營業利潤仍處於上升趨勢，這主要是由於淨銷售額增加。由於我們許多業務的供應受到限制，尤其是在北美穀物領域，我們的廣告和促銷投資在第一季度遠低於往常。正如我們上個季度所討論的，預計這項 A&P 投資將在全年逐步恢復符合我們正在恢復的供應。我們較低的毛利導致營業利潤同比下降，這也與兩位數的增長比較。但重要的是，我們第一季度的營業利潤仍高於 2020 年第一季度甚至 2019 年第一季度，並保持上升趨勢。

Turning now to our below-the-line items on Slide 14. Lower debt year-on-year translated into lower interest expense, though the run-up in rates during quarter 1 will likely create year-on-year increases in the coming quarters. Other income was negatively affected by lower pension income as expected but also by the impact of a declining bond market on our company-owned life insurance investments. Lower net pension income will continue through the year.

現在轉向我們在幻燈片 14 上的線下項目。儘管第一季度的利率上升可能會在未來幾個季度造成同比增長，但債務同比減少轉化為利息支出減少.其他收入受到預期的養老金收入下降以及債券市場下滑對我們公司擁有的人壽保險投資的影響的負面影響。較低的養老金淨收入將持續到今年。

Our effective tax rate benefited from a couple of relatively small discrete items in quarter 1. Our JV earnings and minority interest collectively improved year-on-year, reflecting the consolidation of certain Africa JVs at midyear last year. And average shares outstanding decreased year-on-year, mainly reflecting the repurchases we made in 2021. We were active on buybacks during the quarter, and this will have an impact on average shares outstanding in quarter 2.

我們的有效稅率受益於第一季度的幾個相對較小的離散項目。我們的合資企業收益和少數股東權益同比整體提高，反映了去年年中某些非洲合資企業的整合。平均流通股同比下降，主要反映了我們在 2021 年進行的回購。我們在本季度積極進行回購，這將對第二季度的平均流通股產生影響。

Let's look at our cash flow and balance sheet on Slide #15. Cash flow came in strongly in quarter 1 on the strength of higher net earnings, continued management of core working capital and some timing of accruals and capital investment. As you can see on the chart, we start the year well ahead of where we typically are in quarter 1 aside from the unusual pandemic year of 2020. In addition, our net debt remains lower year-on-year. Between strong cash flow and a deleveraged balance sheet, we feel good about our financial flexibility. This financial flexibility has given us the ability to increase the cash we return to shareowners. We recently announced another increase in our [dividend]. And in quarter 1, we repurchased some $300 million of our stock.

讓我們看看幻燈片#15 上的現金流和資產負債表。由於較高的淨收益、核心營運資本的持續管理以及應計和資本投資的一些時機，現金流在第一季度強勁增長。正如您在圖表中看到的那樣，除了 2020 年不尋常的大流行年之外，我們在第一季度的通常情況下開始的一年遠遠早於我們。此外，我們的淨債務同比仍然較低。在強勁的現金流和去槓桿化的資產負債表之間，我們對我們的財務靈活性感到滿意。這種財務靈活性使我們能夠增加返還給股東的現金。我們最近宣布再次增加我們的[股息]。在第一季度，我們回購了大約 3 億美元的股票。

Let's now turn to the rest of the year. Our primary planning assumptions are shown on Slide 16. We expect to deliver sustained momentum on the top line, led by our strong snacking portfolio around the world and geographically by our emerging markets. Price/mix would continue to drive our net sales growth as we try to keep up with rising costs and as we continue to assume some combination of decelerating at-home demand growth and resumed price elasticity.

現在讓我們談談今年剩下的時間。我們的主要計劃假設顯示在幻燈片 16 中。我們預計在全球範圍內強大的零食產品組合和新興市場的地理優勢下，我們的收入將保持持續增長。價格/組合將繼續推動我們的淨銷售額增長，因為我們試圖跟上不斷上漲的成本，並且我們繼續假設國內需求增長放緩和價格彈性恢復的某種組合。

Our market-driven cost inflation has gotten higher, worsened by the war in Ukraine, and it looks like it will persist longer than originally anticipated. This has been incorporated into our outlook. From a supply disruption standpoint, we are largely past the fire and strike impact, though we will still expect bottlenecks and shortages to persist at least through the first half, with disruption related to the war in Ukraine more weighted to the second half. Meanwhile, as we mentioned, we do plan to gradually restore overhead and brand building investment across our regions as the year progresses, be it behind capabilities or resumed commercial activity behind supply-constrained brands.

我們由市場驅動的成本通脹已經變得更高，烏克蘭戰爭加劇了這種情況，而且看起來它會比最初預期的持續時間更長。這已納入我們的展望。從供應中斷的角度來看，我們基本上已經度過了火災和罷工的影響，儘管我們仍預計瓶頸和短缺至少會持續到上半年，而與烏克蘭戰爭相關的中斷在下半年更為重要。同時，正如我們所提到的，我們確實計劃隨著時間的推移逐步恢復我們地區的管理費用和品牌建設投資，無論是落後於能力還是恢復供應受限品牌背後的商業活動。

Slide #17 shows how these planning assumptions translate into updated full year guidance. We are raising our forecast for organic basis net sales growth to about 4% growth versus our previous estimate of about 3%. This reflects the momentum in our business and the fact that price/mix is likely to come in higher than we previously planned as we seek to cover incremental cost inflation. This higher net sales should offset the incremental pressures of accelerated cost inflation and supply disruption. As a result, we continue to focus currency-neutral adjusted basis growth of 1% to 2% in operating profit. We also continue to forecast currency-neutral adjusted basis growth of 1% to 2% in earnings per share, with a further reduction in other income, partially offset by the full year flow-through of quarter 1 discrete tax benefits.

幻燈片 #17 顯示了這些規劃假設如何轉化為更新的全年指導。我們將有機基礎淨銷售額增長的預測上調至約 4%，而我們之前的估計約為 3%。這反映了我們業務的發展勢頭，以及價格/組合可能高於我們之前計劃的事實，因為我們尋求彌補成本上漲的增量。這種較高的淨銷售額應該可以抵消成本加速上漲和供應中斷帶來的增量壓力。因此，我們繼續關注營業利潤中 1% 至 2% 的貨幣中性調整後基數增長。我們還繼續預測，經匯率中性調整後的每股收益將增長 1% 至 2%，其他收入將進一步減少，部分被第一季度離散稅收優惠的全年流轉所抵消。

From a phasing standpoint, the only new news since last quarter is that we got off to a better-than-expected start in quarter 1, but that our second half will now experience more cost inflation and disruption and costs related to supply.

從分階段的角度來看，自上季度以來唯一的新消息是，我們在第一季度的開局好於預期，但我們的下半年現在將經歷更多的成本通脹和供應中斷以及與供應相關的成本。

Finally, we continue to forecast cash flow of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. This is roughly in line with our reported basis net income growth with no changes to our disciplined approach to restructuring outlays, core working capital and capital expenditure.

最後，我們繼續預測 11 億至 12 億美元的現金流。這與我們報告的基礎淨收入增長大致一致，而我們對重組支出、核心營運資本和資本支出的嚴格方法沒有改變。

So in summary, we got off to a good start in quarter 1, delivering solid financial results in the face of massive headwinds and even putting us ahead of plan. Our brands continue to perform well, and we have been effective at offsetting market-driven cost inflation with productivity and revenue growth management. Our cash flow generation remains strong, and our balance sheet remains strong. So we feel good about our financial position and the outlook.

總而言之，我們在第一季度取得了良好的開端，面對巨大的逆風，實現了穩健的財務業績，甚至使我們提前計劃。我們的品牌繼續表現良好，我們通過生產力和收入增長管理有效地抵消了市場驅動的成本膨脹。我們的現金流量依然強勁，我們的資產負債表依然強勁。因此，我們對自己的財務狀況和前景感覺良好。

Let me now turn it back to Steve for a review of our regions.

現在讓我把它轉回給史蒂夫，讓我們回顧一下我們的地區。

Thanks, Amit. The first thing you'll note about our quarter 1 is the continuation of broad-based top line growth. Slide #20 shows our organic net sales growth by region in the first quarter, along with the 2-year CAGR that they had to lap.

謝謝，阿米特。關於我們的第一季度，您首先會注意到的是基礎廣泛的收入增長的持續。幻燈片 #20 顯示了我們在第一季度按地區劃分的有機淨銷售額增長，以及他們必須達到的 2 年復合年增長率。

We generated organic basis net sales growth of 8% in Europe, 6% in Latin America and 17% in AMEA. These are exceptional growth rates. And in North America, where last year's fire and strike left us with low cereal inventory, and therefore, lost sales, our reported and organic net sales were still only down less than 1%. In fact, if you exclude cereal, the rest of our North America business grew by 3% to 4% year-on-year, even against tough comparisons. In a moment, we'll walk you through the key category groups within each region.

我們在歐洲實現了 8%、拉丁美洲 6% 和 AMEA 17% 的有機基礎淨銷售額增長。這些都是非凡的增長率。在北美，去年的火災和罷工使我們的穀物庫存低，因此銷售損失，我們報告的有機淨銷售額仍然僅下降不到 1%。事實上，如果排除穀物，我們北美的其他業務同比增長 3% 至 4%，即使是在艱難的比較中也是如此。稍後，我們將向您介紹每個地區的關鍵類別組。

You'll see the continued exceptional growth of a relatively new growth leg for us, and that's noodles in Africa. You'll see that cereal and frozen foods, the category groups that are the most at home in nature, have therefore seen the most deceleration as consumer mobility has increased. But outside of North America, with its supply disruption from the fire and strike, we do continue to grow in cereal internationally. But you'll also see that in all 4 regions, our biggest category group, snacks, continue to grow strongly even against tough 2-year comparisons.

你會看到對我們來說，一個相對較新的增長分支持續異常增長，那就是非洲的麵條。您會看到穀物和冷凍食品，這些在自然界中最適合家庭的類別，因此隨著消費者流動性的增加而出現了最大的減速。但在北美以外，由於火災和罷工導致供應中斷，我們在國際上確實繼續增長穀物。但您也會看到，在所有 4 個地區，我們最大的類別組零食，即使在艱難的 2 年比較中繼續強勁增長。

Slide #21 offers the world-class snacks brands we've been talking to you about, and they had another quarter of excellent consumption growth. Pringles continues to gain penetration and distribution in key markets around the world and continued its strong consumption and net sales growth in the first quarter. Cheez-It, already a powerhouse in the U.S., is growing rapidly in Canada and is off to a strong start in its launch in Brazil. Pop-Tarts continues to grow in the U.S., but look at its growth rates in markets like the U.K. and Mexico as well. Rice Krispies Treats is enjoying explosive growth in several markets outside of the U.S. as we put more focus and support behind that unique brand.

幻燈片 #21 提供了我們一直在與您討論的世界級零食品牌，它們的消費增長又實現了四分之一。品客薯片繼續在全球主要市場獲得滲透和分銷，並在第一季度繼續保持強勁的消費和淨銷售額增長。 Cheez-It 在美國已經是一個強大的公司，在加拿大發展迅速，並在巴西推出了一個強勁的開端。 Pop-Tarts 在美國繼續增長，但看看它在英國和墨西哥等市場的增長率。 Rice Krispies Treats 在美國以外的多個市場正享受爆炸式增長，因為我們更加關注和支持這個獨特的品牌。

Not only are these brands continuing to grow in North America, but this chart can give you a glimpse of their international potential. Aside from Pringles, these brands are in very early days of expansion, which is part of our strategy. And their growth rates speak to their long-term potential.

這些品牌不僅在北美繼續增長，而且這張圖表可以讓您一睹他們的國際潛力。除了品客薯片，這些品牌都處於擴張的早期階段，這是我們戰略的一部分。他們的增長率說明了他們的長期潛力。

Let's now review each region in turn, starting with North America on Slide #22. North America's net sales declined slightly on an organic basis, owing to the fire and strike-related impact on cereal. Supply constraints, most notably low inventory heading into the quarter for cereal, did pressure volume. But as we'll see in a moment, we did sustain good momentum elsewhere in the portfolio, especially in snacks.

現在讓我們依次回顧每個地區，從幻燈片 #22 上的北美開始。由於火災和罷工對穀物的影響，北美的淨銷售額有機地略有下降。供應限制，尤其是進入本季度的穀物庫存偏低，給成交量帶來壓力。但正如我們稍後會看到的那樣，我們確實在投資組合的其他地方保持了良好的勢頭，尤其是在零食方面。

Price/mix grew more than 7% year-on-year as we continue to implement revenue growth management actions. Operating profit declined year-on-year, not only because of lapping a mid-single-digit 2-year CAGR, but also because of the bottlenecks and shortages that persist in the economy and the wraparound impact from the fire and strike we experienced in the second half of 2021.

隨著我們繼續實施收入增長管理措施，價格/組合同比增長超過 7%。營業利潤同比下降，不僅是因為 2 年復合年增長率達到中個位數，還因為經濟中持續存在的瓶頸和短缺以及火災和罷工的全面影響2021年下半年。

Our snacks business in North America posted organic net sales growth of 5% in the quarter. As you can see on Slide #23, this sales growth lagged consumption, which remained quite strong. Pringles generated consumption growth of more than 8% year-on-year, lapping last year's double-digit gain. This brand is in very good shape.

我們在北美的零食業務在本季度實現了 5% 的有機淨銷售額增長。正如您在幻燈片 #23 中看到的那樣，這種銷售增長落後於消費，消費仍然相當強勁。品客薯片的消費同比增長超過 8%，超過了去年的兩位數增長。這個品牌的狀態非常好。

We saw strong growth in our core 4 flavors in standard cans propelled by effective brand building, including our Super Bowl execution. And we saw continued rapid growth in multipacks. And in a sign of resuming consumer mobility, we are seeing a rebound in immediate consumption offerings as well.

在有效的品牌建設（包括我們的超級碗執行）的推動下，我們看到標準罐頭的核心 4 種口味強勁增長。我們看到多件裝的持續快速增長。作為恢復消費者流動性的跡象，我們也看到即時消費產品的反彈。

Cheez-It also sustained its strong momentum, growing consumption in the double digits, with the new Puff'd platform proving to be incremental to both the Snap'd platform and the core cracker line. But we didn't just gain share in crackers because of Cheez-It. We also outpaced the category with the Club and Town House brands. Pop-Tarts grew consumption in the double digits, and so did Rice Krispies Treats, with both brands sustaining excellent momentum through the strength of effective marketing programs and incremental innovation. And while we're at, Nutri-Grain also grew consumption in the double digits, and RX continues to reaccelerate its growth as consumers go back on the move. So our North America snacks business remains very strong.

Cheez-It 還保持了強勁的勢頭，消費量以兩位數增長，新的 Puff'd 平台被證明是 Snap'd 平台和核心餅乾系列的增量。但我們不僅僅因為 Cheez-It 獲得了餅乾的份額。我們還以 Club 和 Town House 品牌超越了該類別。 Pop-Tarts 的消費量增長了兩位數，Rice Krispies Treats 也是如此，這兩個品牌都通過有效的營銷計劃和漸進式創新保持了良好的勢頭。當我們在時，Nutri-Grain 的消費量也以兩位數增長，隨著消費者重新開始行動，RX 繼續加速其增長。所以我們的北美零食業務仍然非常強勁。

Let's turn now to North America cereal in Slide #24. Recall that 2022 is all about recovering from last year's fire and strike. As you know, we entered the quarter with very low finished goods inventory, which obviously hampered our net sales and consumption year-on-year. The good news is that our first order of business in quarter 1 was restoring production in the 4 affected plants, which our team achieved and ahead of schedule. With demand holding up well and retailers anxious to restore their inventories, we were able to ship out more product in the first quarter than we had anticipated. This certainly will help us improve consumption going forward.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 #24 中的北美穀物。回想一下，2022 年就是要從去年的火災和罷工中恢復過來。如您所知，我們進入本季度的成品庫存非常低，這顯然阻礙了我們的淨銷售額和消費同比。好消息是，我們第一季度的第一筆業務是恢復 4 家受影響工廠的生產，我們的團隊提前完成了這項工作。由於需求保持良好且零售商急於恢復庫存，我們在第一季度出貨的產品比我們預期的要多。這肯定會幫助我們改善未來的消費。

Slide #25 offers a good way to gauge our progress on restoring supply. It measures our share against our total distribution points. You can see the sharp decline in last year's fourth quarter as retailers ran through their inventory, and we were unable to replenish it. As we ramped up production during the first quarter, you can see product returning to the shelves in the form of recovering TDPs, and therefore, share. This reflects our improving supply and is a testament to the strength of our brands and relationships with our retail partners. This sequential improvement is what we expect to continue to realize as we get through the first half. In fact, this positive trend has continued quite clearly in April. This will put us right on track to gradually restore commercial plans brand-by-brand towards full recovery in the second half.

幻燈片 #25 提供了一個衡量我們在恢復供應方面取得進展的好方法。它根據我們的總分配點衡量我們的份額。你可以看到去年第四季度的急劇下降，因為零售商耗盡了他們的庫存，我們無法補充。隨著我們在第一季度提高產量，您可以看到產品以回收 TDP 的形式重新上架，並因此分享。這反映了我們不斷改善的供應，也證明了我們的品牌實力以及與零售合作夥伴的關係。這種連續的改進是我們期望在上半年繼續實現的。事實上，這種積極的趨勢在 4 月份已經相當明顯地持續下去。這將使我們步入正軌，逐步恢復逐個品牌的商業計劃，並在下半年全面復甦。

Our Frozen businesses in North America are depicted on Slide #26. Eggo consumption growth remained strong, with mid-single-digit growth on top of a mid-single-digit 2-year CAGR. This is good performance given that we've been capacity constrained, especially on pancakes. The even better news is that we have incremental Eggo capacity coming online in the second quarter.

我們在北美的凍結業務如幻燈片 #26 所示。 Eggo 消費增長保持強勁，在中個位數的 2 年復合年增長率之上實現中個位數增長。鑑於我們一直受到容量限制，尤其是在煎餅上，這是一個很好的表現。更好的消息是，我們將在第二季度增加 Eggo 產能。

In our plant-based business, MorningStar Farms consumption was down against the mid-teens 2-year CAGR comparison, and the category has paused on distribution gains and household penetration gains after surging the past couple of years. We've seen some share loss as competitors have entered and expanded offerings in our segments and, in many cases, competing intensely on price.

在我們以植物為基礎的業務中，晨星農場的消費與 2 年的 CAGR 相比有所下降，並且在過去幾年的飆升之後，該類別的分銷收益和家庭滲透率增長已經暫停。隨著競爭對手進入我們的細分市場並擴大產品範圍，並且在許多情況下，在價格上展開激烈競爭，我們看到了一些份額損失。

So in total, North America got off to a good start in the first quarter with progress on supply recovery in cereal and in-market momentum elsewhere in the portfolio.

因此，總體而言，北美在第一季度取得了良好的開端，穀物供應復甦和投資組合其他地方的市場勢頭取得了進展。

Closing out North America, Slide #27 highlights some of the exciting innovations and commercial programs we have going into the marketplace. To remind you that even though we're in an unusual supply environment, we continue to delight consumers.

關閉北美，幻燈片 #27 突出了我們進入市場的一些令人興奮的創新和商業計劃。提醒您，即使我們處於不尋常的供應環境中，我們仍會繼續取悅消費者。

On the innovation front, Cheez-It Puff'd is off to an even faster start than Snap'd, the platform we launched a couple of years ago. Club Crisps is also new to the market, providing a light and fresh snack that's built on the strength of our Club crackers line. For Pop-Tarts, we've launched new flavors like Snickerdoodle, expanded on a simple ingredient line called Pop-Tarts Simply and brought back a fan favorite Frosted Grape.

在創新方面，Cheez-It Puff'd 的起步速度比我們幾年前推出的平台 Snap'd 還要快。 Club Crisps 也是市場上的新產品，提供基於我們 Club 餅乾系列實力的清淡新鮮小吃。對於 Pop-Tarts，我們推出了 Snickerdoodle 等新口味，擴展了名為 Pop-Tarts Simply 的簡單配料系列，並帶回了粉絲最喜歡的 Frosted Grape。

And in Frozen, beyond the lookout for Eggo's new Liège-Style waffle for on-the-go consumption and some exciting new varieties of MorningStar Farms, including a delicious pancake wrapped sausage on a stick. From a marketing standpoint, Mission Tiger is roaring back, helping kids gain better access to use sports. These are just a few examples of why we are so confident that we can sustain our snacks momentum, recover cereal and reaccelerate Frozen.

在《冰雪奇緣》中，除了尋找適合外出消費的 Eggo 全新列日式華夫餅外，還有一些令人興奮的晨星農場新品種，包括美味的煎餅包裹香腸棒。從營銷的角度來看，Mission Tiger 正在強勢回歸，幫助孩子們更好地參與體育運動。這些只是我們為何如此有信心保持零食勢頭、恢復穀物和重新加速冷凍的幾個例子。

Now let's discuss Europe shown on Slide #28. Europe had another outstanding quarter, growing net sales 8% and operating profit by 28%, even as it lapped strong year-ago growth for both metrics. While volume was down against the tough comparisons, Europe's RGM efforts continue to generate price/mix growth. And productivity also helped to cover costs, enabling increased A&P investment.

現在讓我們討論幻燈片#28 上顯示的歐洲。歐洲有另一個出色的季度，淨銷售額增長 8%，營業利潤增長 28%，儘管這兩項指標均超過了去年同期的強勁增長。雖然銷量在艱難的比較中有所下降，但歐洲的 RGM 努力繼續產生價格/組合增長。生產力還有助於彌補成本，從而增加 A&P 投資。

On Slide #29, you can see that we experienced organic net sales growth in both snacks and cereal in the first quarter despite what were very tough comparisons on a 2-year basis. In snacks, the growth is underpinned by fantastic momentum in consumption for Pringles, which gained share in markets like Germany, Italy and Spain, and lagged the category double-digit growth in the U.K. only because of tougher comparisons.

在幻燈片 #29 上，您可以看到我們在第一季度經歷了零食和穀物的有機淨銷售額增長，儘管在 2 年的基礎上進行了非常艱難的比較。在零食方面，品客薯片的消費增長勢頭強勁，後者在德國、意大利和西班牙等市場獲得了份額，並落後於英國的兩位數增長，只是因為比較嚴格。

We should also point out that in portable wholesome snacks where categories are rebounding on a return to consumer mobility, our efforts to revitalize brands like Rice Krispies Squares and Pop-Tarts are starting to pay off, with share gains in markets like the U.K. and Italy. In cereal, consumption is moderating across the region as consumer mobility and price elasticity resumes. While we have gained share in the U.K. and Germany, we have ceded share in other markets in part because of lapping tougher comparisons. Nevertheless, some key supported brands continue to do well, as shown on this slide.

我們還應該指出，在便攜式健康零食方面，隨著消費者流動性的回歸，品類正在反彈，我們為重振 Rice Krispies Squares 和 Pop-Tarts 等品牌所做的努力開始獲得回報，在英國和意大利等市場的份額有所增長.在穀物方面，隨著消費者流動性和價格彈性的恢復，整個地區的消費正在放緩。雖然我們在英國和德國獲得了份額，但我們在其他市場上的份額有所下降，部分原因是進行了更嚴格的比較。儘管如此，如這張幻燈片所示，一些主要受支持的品牌繼續表現良好。

A quick word about the situation in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine represent less than 1.5% of our total company net sales and less than 10% of our sales in Europe. We have suspended shipments and investments into Russia, which will have a direct impact on our sales and profit in Europe this year. This is incorporated into our updated guidance. Overall, though, Kellogg Europe is off to a very good start to 2022, and we feel good about the business.

簡要介紹一下烏克蘭的局勢。俄羅斯和烏克蘭占我們公司總淨銷售額的不到 1.5%，不到我們在歐洲的銷售額的 10%。我們暫停了對俄羅斯的發貨和投資，這將直接影響我們今年在歐洲的銷售和利潤。這已包含在我們更新的指南中。不過，總體而言，凱洛格歐洲在 2022 年的開局非常好，我們對這項業務感覺良好。

Now let's discuss Latin America, turning to Slide #30. Latin America, too, faced notably impressive comparisons, particularly on a 2-year CAGR basis and especially on operating profit. But this business got off to a good start, with year-on-year net sales growth driven by price/mix growth and operating profit that declined less than we had expected.

現在讓我們討論一下拉丁美洲，轉到幻燈片#30。拉丁美洲也面臨著令人印象深刻的比較，特別是在 2 年復合年增長率的基礎上，尤其是在營業利潤方面。但這項業務開局良好，淨銷售額同比增長受價格/組合增長和營業利潤下降低於我們預期的推動。

Slide #31 shows that our Latin America net sales growth was led by snacks. Here, too, Pringles is showing impressive momentum, outpacing the category double-digit growth in Mexico and Brazil. In portable wholesome snacks, our consumption has rebounded faster than the category in our principal markets of Mexico and Puerto Rico. And cereal category consumption growth remains robust across the region, and we outpaced the category in key markets. However, tough comparisons and regulatory hurdles in Mexico negatively impacted our cereal net sales in the quarter. Nonetheless, our Latin America business continues to perform well.

幻燈片 #31 顯示，我們拉丁美洲的淨銷售額增長是由零食帶動的。在這裡，品客薯片也表現出令人印象深刻的勢頭，超過了墨西哥和巴西的兩位數增長。在便攜式健康零食方面，我們的消費反彈速度快於我們主要市場墨西哥和波多黎各的同類產品。整個地區的穀物類消費增長依然強勁，我們在主要市場的增長速度超過了該類別。然而，墨西哥艱難的比較和監管障礙對我們本季度的穀物淨銷售額產生了負面影響。儘管如此，我們的拉丁美洲業務繼續表現良好。

Let's finish our business review with AMEA on Slide #32. Quarter 1 featured another exceptional performance by our fastest-growing region. Despite lapping a strong 2-year CAGR for volume, AMEA continued to leverage RGM for exceptional price realization across the region, which helped it offset the margin impact of high costs. The result was double-digit growth in both net sales and operating profit versus the prior year.

讓我們在幻燈片 #32 上完成與 AMEA 的業務審查。第一季度我們增長最快的地區又表現出非凡的表現。儘管 2 年的銷量複合年增長率強勁，但 AMEA 繼續利用 RGM 在該地區實現卓越的價格實現，這有助於抵消高成本對利潤率的影響。結果是與上一年相比，淨銷售額和營業利潤均實現了兩位數的增長。

Slide #33 shows how AMEA's net sales growth was generated across all 3 of our product category groups in the region. Noodles was once again the largest contributor to the growth, reflecting exceptional growth by Multipro in West Africa and our continued expansion of the Kellogg's Noodles brand in markets like Egypt and South Africa.

幻燈片 #33 顯示了 AMEA 的淨銷售額增長是如何在我們在該地區的所有 3 個產品類別組中產生的。 Noodles 再次成為增長的最大貢獻者，這反映了 Multipro 在西非的非凡增長以及我們在埃及和南非等市場繼續擴展 Kellogg's Noodles 品牌。

Our strong snacks growth was led by Pringles, which sustained goods consumption growth even as it entered the quarter with low inventories coming out of last year's COVID-related production restrictions. In portable wholesome snacks, our double-digit growth was strong enough to gain share in Australia and in the rest of the region. In cereal, the overall region's category has decelerated to modest growth, but we had gained share led by Australia, Korea and South Africa.

我們強勁的零食增長是由品客薯片引領的，即使進入本季度，由於去年與 COVID 相關的生產限制導致庫存減少，商品消費仍保持增長。在便攜式健康零食方面，我們兩位數的增長強勁，足以在澳大利亞和該地區其他地區獲得份額。在穀物方面，整個地區的類別已經放緩至適度增長，但我們在澳大利亞、韓國和南非的帶領下獲得了份額。

So to close out our prepared remarks, let me briefly summarize with Slide #35. We're off to a very good start to the year. We remain right on strategy, as ever focused on dependable, balanced financial delivery. We are navigating well through unprecedented cost and supply challenges. And through it all, we have sustained top line momentum, both in net sales and consumption growth. This reflects the strength of our reshaped portfolio, particularly our international markets and our North America snacks and frozen businesses. It also reflects what we have done on revenue growth management in order to help cover rising costs.

因此，為了結束我們準備好的評論，讓我用幻燈片 #35 簡要總結一下。我們今年有一個很好的開端。我們的戰略始終正確，一如既往地專注於可靠、平衡的財務交付。我們正在順利應對前所未有的成本和供應挑戰。通過這一切，我們在淨銷售額和消費增長方面都保持了收入增長勢頭。這反映了我們重組後的投資組合的實力，特別是我們的國際市場以及我們的北美零食和冷凍業務。它還反映了我們在收入增長管理方面所做的工作，以幫助應對不斷上漲的成本。

Put it all together, and we come out of quarter 1 ahead of plan, which is an important benefit as we look ahead to continued uncertain market conditions. We are affirming our guidance for the year, and we are increasing the cash we return to shareowners.

綜上所述，我們提前完成了第一季度的工作，這是一個重要的好處，因為我們展望了持續不確定的市場狀況。我們正在確認我們對今年的指導，並且我們正在增加我們返還給股東的現金。

As always, I can't thank enough the talented, resourceful and persevering Kellogg employees who have made this performance and our bright prospects possible.

與往常一樣，我非常感謝那些才華橫溢、足智多謀和堅持不懈的 Kellogg 員工，他們使這一業績和我們光明的前景成為可能。

And with that, we'll open up the line for questions.

有了這個，我們將打開問題的線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Chris Growe from Stifel.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

I just had a question -- I had a question for you, if I could. Steve, you had mentioned about being able to rebuild inventory a little faster. And I guess I want to ask first, is that a U.S. comment? I presume it is versus a global comment. I think it's an area where you've had a little more of a shortage.

我只是有一個問題——如果可以的話，我有一個問題要問你。史蒂夫，你提到過能夠更快地重建庫存。我想我想先問一下，這是美國的評論嗎？我認為它與全球評論相對。我認為這是一個你有更多短缺的領域。

And then just to get a sense of where you are in the recovery. You showed a chart with TPDs and kind of rebuilding distribution in Cereal. But is it Q2 when that kind of starts to make a further pushup? I just want to get a sense of where you are in that process.

然後只是為了了解你在恢復中的位置。你展示了一張圖表，其中包含 TPD 和穀物中的重建分佈。但是當那種開始做進一步俯臥撑的時候是Q2嗎？我只是想了解您在該過程中所處的位置。

Yes. Thanks, Chris. It is a U.S. comment. I mean inventories are down really across the globe, generally speaking, because of supply shortages, bottlenecks and the like. But the big issue for us is in the U.S. and predominantly in cereal because of the fire and strike. And so we're ahead of where we plan to be. So that's great. I give a real tip of the cap to our 4 cereal plants that came back to work, came back motivated and are building inventory ahead of plan. And we appreciate that and those efforts and the leadership in the plants and the plant workers.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。這是美國的評論。我的意思是，總體而言，由於供應短缺、瓶頸等原因，全球庫存確實下降了。但對我們來說，最大的問題是在美國，主要是穀物，因為火災和罷工。因此，我們領先於我們計劃的目標。那太好了。我向我們的 4 家穀物工廠提供了一個真正的建議，這些工廠恢復了工作，回來的積極性，並且正在提前建立庫存。我們感謝這些努力以及工廠和工廠工人的領導。

The second quarter, you'll see accelerated commercial activity. And really in the back half of the year is when we plan to be resuming full commercial activity against our cereal portfolio. So that's why we're encouraging looking at the sequential improvement. If you look at year-over-year performance and share in U.S. cereal, clearly still down, but that's based on low inventories and lack of commercial activity. But when you look at the sequential performance of the business, our goal is each and every week to continue to build our TDPs and each and every week to continue to accelerate our share momentum and get back to where we belong because the brands are still incredibly strong, relationships with retailers continues to be very, very strong, and we're working together to get this business back to where it belongs.

第二季度，您將看到加速的商業活動。實際上，在今年下半年，我們計劃針對我們的穀物產品組合恢復全面的商業活動。這就是為什麼我們鼓勵關注連續改進的原因。如果你看一下美國穀物的同比表現和份額，顯然仍在下降，但這是基於低庫存和缺乏商業活動。但是，當您查看業務的連續表現時，我們的目標是每周繼續建立我們的 TDP，並且每周繼續加快我們的份額勢頭並回到我們所屬的地方，因為品牌仍然令人難以置信強大，與零售商的關係繼續非常非常牢固，我們正在共同努力使這項業務回到它所屬的地方。

Okay. And I had just a quick question for Amit on inflation. Can you give the rate of inflation -- if you did, I missed it, I'm sorry -- for the first quarter? And then how that fares versus the remainder of the year? And then to what degree you may be hedged on those input costs?

好的。我有一個關於通貨膨脹的簡短問題要問阿米特。你能給出第一季度的通貨膨脹率嗎？那麼與今年剩餘時間相比，票價如何？然後你可以在多大程度上對這些投入成本進行套期保值？

Yes. So on inflation, I think we talked in our last call as well that we ended the year with an outlook of double-digit inflation. I think through the quarter, we saw that inflation accelerates. And I think when I look at the rest of the year, what's incorporated in our guidance is continued double-digit inflation. It's notched up by 2 to 3 points. So that's kind of what's been incorporated in our guidance.

是的。所以在通脹方面，我認為我們在上次電話會議中也談到了我們在今年結束時對兩位數通脹的展望。我認為整個季度，我們看到通脹加速。而且我認為，當我回顧今年餘下的時間時，我們的指導中包含的是持續的兩位數通脹。它提高了 2 到 3 個點。這就是我們的指導中包含的內容。

I think in hedge levels, we are almost at around 80% level of hedging. So that's where we sit. But it's important to note that this is just for traded commodities, which is about a quarter of all our costs.

我認為在對沖水平上，我們幾乎處於對沖水平的 80% 左右。這就是我們坐的地方。但重要的是要注意，這僅適用於交易商品，約占我們所有成本的四分之一。

Yes. The only thing -- only other thing I'd add is that our outlook now for inflation goes into the second half. And so it's not moderating at the level that we thought it would.

是的。唯一 - 我要補充的唯一一件事是，我們現在對通脹的展望進入下半年。所以它並沒有達到我們認為的水平。

Our next question is from Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

Goodness. I really got lots of questions left. So first, Amit or Steve, I forget who had said it, but I heard comments of price left to see returning in some markets. Can you elaborate which markets were you seeing heightened or return to more normalized type price sensitivity from consumers?

善良。我真的有很多問題。所以首先，阿米特或史蒂夫，我忘記了是誰說的，但我聽到了關於價格在某些市場上看到回歸的評論。您能否詳細說明您看到哪些市場正在提高或恢復到消費者對價格更正常的類型？

Yes, Jason. So I'll start, and Amit can add. We're seeing clearly elasticity still well below normal levels. So I think that's the important thing to note. But we are seeing -- when you look at 2-year CAGRs, we're starting to see the return of elasticities, which is not surprising given the level of pricing that's in the market. You're seeing it more in some of the at-home meal occasions. So cereal and frozen. We're seeing a little bit more snacking, less so. And we're incorporating that into our guidance. So we're planning on elasticities growing as pricing continues to be very elevated but still below what you would normally see prior to all these disruptions. Yes.

是的，傑森。所以我要開始了，Amit 可以補充。我們清楚地看到彈性仍遠低於正常水平。所以我認為這是需要注意的重要一點。但我們看到——當你看 2 年的複合年增長率時，我們開始看到彈性的回歸，考慮到市場上的定價水平，這並不奇怪。在一些家庭用餐場合，你會看到更多。所以穀物和冷凍。我們看到更多的零食，更少。我們正在將其納入我們的指導。因此，隨著定價繼續非常高，但仍低於所有這些中斷之前您通常看到的水平，我們計劃增加彈性。是的。

The only other thing I'd add, Jason, is that the elasticity was better than what we had expected, and that's kind of one of the factors that drove the outperformance versus our plan in quarter 1. So, so far, it's been better than what we had expected.

傑森，我唯一要補充的另一件事是彈性比我們預期的要好，這是推動第一季度表現優於我們計劃的因素之一。所以，到目前為止，情況要好一些超出我們的預期。

Yes. Got it. It seems pretty consistent (inaudible) industry wide. One more slightly more nuanced question. I think you know we've got these gross margin bridges where we try to tie gross margin every quarter. And for a very long time, there's been leakage there. It's either due to inefficiencies like a single-serve pack initiative. It's due to mix like the African business, maybe outpacing everything else. This is one of the few quarters where on our math, like, there really is no leakage. You're kind of back to whole. I can plug in the math, and the math works. I know you can take out another 100 to 200 basis points. And I guess my question is, are you aware of why? Like why might the flow-through be a little more cleaner? And are we at a point where we may not be facing the same degree of maybe mix or -- mix degradation or leakage going forward?

是的。知道了。整個行業似乎非常一致（聽不清）。還有一個稍微微妙的問題。我想你知道我們有這些毛利率橋樑，我們試圖在每個季度綁定毛利率。很長一段時間以來，那裡一直存在洩漏。這要么是由於單一服務包裝計劃等效率低下。這是由於像非洲業務一樣混合，可能會超過其他所有業務。這是我們數學上為數不多的幾個季度之一，就像真的沒有洩漏一樣。你有點恢復原狀。我可以插入數學，並且數學有效。我知道你可以再拿出 100 到 200 個基點。我想我的問題是，你知道為什麼嗎？比如為什麼流通會更乾淨一點？我們是否處於可能不會面臨相同程度的混合或混合退化或洩漏的地步？

Yes. I think, Jason, if you look at our quarter, right? Quarter 1, our gross margins were down 280 basis points. I think the biggest driver of that was the impact -- was the wraparound impact of the fire and strike. So that, I would say, would be almost half of the gross margin decline in the quarter. We continue to see bottlenecks and shortages. So that continues to impact the gross margin. Our assumption is that it will continue through the first half of this year and then start moderating in the second half. So I think that's the -- that was the single biggest impact in the quarter.

是的。我想，傑森，如果你看看我們的季度，對吧？第一季度，我們的毛利率下降了 280 個基點。我認為最大的驅動因素是影響——是火災和罷工的環繞影響。因此，我想說，這幾乎是本季度毛利率下降的一半。我們繼續看到瓶頸和短缺。因此，這將繼續影響毛利率。我們的假設是，它將持續到今年上半年，然後在下半年開始放緩。所以我認為這是 - 這是本季度最大的影響。

From a mix standpoint, again, the mix, we did see a mix impact just given the level of growth in AMEA, which grew 17% in the quarter. So that mix shift -- I would say that mix shift would continue as AMEA continues to grow faster, but it was more pronounced in quarter 1. And I think when you kind of look at the outlook for the year, what's in our guidance is an improving trend. I would expect gross margins to continue to decline in the coming quarters before bouncing back in quarter 4 when we lapped last year's fire and strike, but definitely an improving trend because the impact of the fire and strike is now behind us.

從混合的角度來看，再一次，考慮到 AMEA 的增長水平，我們確實看到了混合影響，該季度增長了 17%。所以這種混合轉變——我會說混合轉變將繼續，因為 AMEA 繼續增長更快，但在第一季度更加明顯。我認為當你看一下今年的前景時，我們的指導是什麼有改善的趨勢。我預計毛利率將在未來幾個季度繼續下降，然後在第四季度反彈，當時我們經歷了去年的火災和罷工，但絕對是一個改善的趨勢，因為火災和罷工的影響現在已經過去了。

And I think when you kind of look at the outlook for gross margin for the full year, I'd say sitting here today we'd probably say that it will be down around 1%.

而且我認為，當您查看全年毛利率的前景時，我會說今天坐在這裡，我們可能會說它將下降約 1%。

The next call question is from Cody Ross from UBS.

下一個電話問題來自瑞銀的 Cody Ross。

In the press release, you noted higher price/mix as the reason for the higher organic sales outlook for the year. Does that mean you're taking another round of price? And if so, which parts of your portfolio is that in? What's the magnitude? And when will that be effective?

在新聞稿中，您指出較高的價格/組合是今年有機銷售前景較高的原因。這是否意味著你正在接受另一輪價格？如果是這樣，你的投資組合的哪些部分是？量級是多少？什麼時候有效？

Yes. Cody, thanks for the question. So we don't comment on prospective pricing. But I think when you look at what we've done, it's a good indication of what we'll plan for in the future. So we have -- in terms of our revenue, our net sales growth, it's virtually all price/mix, right? And that's due to obviously the incredible input cost inflation that we're seeing and the fact that productivity just simply can't cover this type of inflationary environment. We see that continuing. And so as we look forward, we're going to continue to look at productivity as the first line of defense, but we're going to be in a situation where it's not going to be enough, and we'll look at our whole revenue growth management toolkit in order to protect and preserve our margins going forward. And excuse me, that's around the world. So that's not just the United States' phenomenon.

是的。科迪，謝謝你的問題。因此，我們不對預期定價發表評論。但我認為，當你看到我們所做的事情時，這很好地表明了我們未來的計劃。所以我們有 - 就我們的收入，我們的淨銷售額增長而言，這幾乎都是價格/組合，對吧？這顯然是由於我們所看到的令人難以置信的投入成本膨脹以及生產力根本無法涵蓋這種通貨膨脹環境的事實。我們看到這種情況仍在繼續。因此，在我們向前看的時候，我們將繼續將生產力視為第一道防線，但我們將處於一種不夠的情況，我們將審視我們的整體收入增長管理工具包，以保護和保持我們未來的利潤。對不起，這是世界各地的。所以這不僅僅是美國的現象。

Got it. And then you noted you were able to start replenishing retailer inventory levels in the U.S. cereal earlier than expected. However, your volume came in worse than we anticipated. Did it come in line with your expectations? And how much do you think inventory replenishment benefit North America in the quarter?

知道了。然後您注意到您能夠比預期更早地開始補充美國穀物的零售商庫存水平。但是，您的交易量比我們預期的要差。是否符合您的預期？您認為本季度庫存補充對北美有多大好處？

I wouldn't say it benefited North America. I mean the entire decline was in RTEC only. And if you -- like we said in the prepared remarks, if you were to remove U.S. cereal, the U.S. business was -- or the North American business was actually up 3% to 4%. And so it was slightly better than we anticipated, but we anticipated it being significantly down. But we're pleased that the inventory levels are starting to replenish, and we look at the back half of the year as really being when the RTEC business starts to get back on track. But if you look at the snacks business, for example, shipments actually lag consumption in that category.

我不會說它有利於北美。我的意思是整個下降只發生在 RTEC。如果你 - 就像我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，如果你要刪除美國穀物，那麼美國業務是 - 或者北美業務實際上增長了 3% 到 4%。所以它比我們預期的要好一些，但我們預計它會顯著下降。但我們很高興庫存水平開始補充，我們認為今年下半年 RTEC 業務開始重回正軌。但如果你看看零食業務，例如，出貨量實際上落後於該類別的消費。

Our next question is from Robert Moskow from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的羅伯特莫斯科。

Can I ask you to drill down a little bit more into Europe? With profits up, I think it was 28%, it just seems a little inconsistent with the commentary about Russia and Ukraine being a headwind and volumes being down. So why was it so good? And is it possible that the lower spending in Russia is actually helping more than hurting?

我可以請您深入了解一下歐洲嗎？隨著利潤上升，我認為是 28%，這似乎與關於俄羅斯和烏克蘭成為逆風和銷量下降的評論有點不一致。那為什麼這麼好？俄羅斯較低的支出是否有可能實際上是利大於弊？

No, Rob. I'd say a couple of things. First, the Russia-Ukraine impact will be a second half impact, right? So we didn't feel that effect in the first quarter, but we will feel that going forward, and that's why we incorporated that into our outlook. And the real story, to be honest with you, in the European businesses, this is 4 years on the trough that this business has been performing very, very well. It was a bit of an outsized performance, but they grew in snacks. They stabilized cereal. They grew in wholesome snacks. And when I say they grew in snacks, I mean, Pringles consumption growth has been exceptional behind gaming, messaging, soccer events, incremental innovations like Rice Fusion and Sizzl'n. And the team performed extremely well when it comes to revenue growth management as well. And spending was in line with what we anticipated. So it was just an excellent quarter driven by very, very good top line performance that flowed through to the bottom line.

不，羅伯。我想說幾件事。首先，俄羅斯和烏克蘭的影響將是下半年的影響，對吧？所以我們在第一季度沒有感受到這種影響，但我們會感受到這種影響，這就是我們將其納入我們展望的原因。而真實的故事，老實說，在歐洲業務中，這是該業務表現非常非常好的低谷的 4 年。這是一個有點過分的表演，但他們在零食中成長。他們穩定了穀物。它們生長在有益健康的零食中。當我說他們在零食方面增長時，我的意思是，品客薯片的消費增長在遊戲、消息傳遞、足球賽事、Rice Fusion 和 Sizzl'n 等增量創新之後表現出色。在收入增長管理方面，該團隊的表現也非常出色。支出符合我們的預期。因此，這只是一個出色的季度，由非常非常好的頂線表現推動，流向了底線。

And like I said, this is 4 years now where our European business has been performing well. And I tell the team when I visit there that there's not too many businesses like ours that talk about Europe as a growth driver to their company, but it is for us, and we're very proud of the team's performance there.

就像我說的，這 4 年來我們的歐洲業務一直表現良好。當我訪問那裡時，我告訴團隊，沒有太多像我們這樣的企業將歐洲視為他們公司的增長動力，但這是對我們而言，我們為團隊在那裡的表現感到非常自豪。

And maybe I can have a follow-up for Amit. SG&A from a corporate standpoint was down $50 million year-over-year in the quarter. How do you think it's going to kind of lay out for the rest of the year? Is it still down in 2Q and then ramp up in the back half when U.S. cereal spending goes higher? And then also, I think you gave guidance for 2% to 3% FX headwind for the year last quarter. What is it now?

也許我可以跟進 Amit。從公司的角度來看，本季度的 SG&A 同比下降了 5000 萬美元。你認為今年剩下的時間會如何佈局？當美國穀物支出增加時，它是否在第二季度仍然下降，然後在後半段上升？然後，我認為你在上個季度給出了 2% 到 3% 的外匯逆風指導。現在是什麼？

All right. So I'll start with SG&A. I think (inaudible) planned. Quarter 1 was planned. We knew that we were low on inventory in U.S. cereal. And so I think we've adjusted our spending appropriately. And so that's kind of what's played through.

好的。所以我將從SG&A 開始。我認為（聽不清）計劃。計劃了第一季度。我們知道美國穀物的庫存不足。所以我認為我們已經適當地調整了我們的支出。所以這就是我們所經歷的。

I think, as I mentioned, as the year goes through, we will restore our levels of advertising and commercial activity once supply picks up. So that's very much the plan. And I think from a full year standpoint, I'd say flattish SG&A on -- is kind of our outlook, excluding currency. So that's the SG&A plan for the year.

我認為，正如我所提到的，隨著時間的推移，一旦供應增加，我們將恢復我們的廣告和商業活動水平。所以這就是計劃。而且我認為從全年的角度來看，我會說 SG&A 持平——這是我們的前景，不包括貨幣。這就是今年的 SG&A 計劃。

I think on -- in terms of currency, yes, I mean, based on where currencies are today, we'd probably be in that same 2% to 3% range. I think we saw about a 2% impact in quarter 1, but 2% to 3% is kind of the outlook.

我想——就貨幣而言，是的，我的意思是，根據今天的貨幣情況，我們可能會處於同樣的 2% 到 3% 的範圍內。我認為我們在第一季度看到了大約 2% 的影響，但 2% 到 3% 是一種前景。

Our next question is from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

I just want to come back to Europe, following up a little bit on Rob's question. Anybody who just was on the (inaudible) might be panicking over the European consumer. And that was a little bit more focused on the U.K. Your business, I think, may be spread out a little bit more. But you touched on how well it's doing there. We clearly see that in the numbers. Can you just maybe give us a sense of how much that's category difference? You're gaining some share. So clearly, it's a brand difference. But maybe also, just is there a watchout that it might be slowing down? Just broadly, they've been talking about the total grocery store sales being down mid to high single-digit percent in the U.K. You're up 12% there. How do we think about what's ahead? Can you keep this going? Or is there some slowdown we should be expecting? How do you think about the rest of the year?

我只是想回到歐洲，對 Rob 的問題稍作跟進。剛剛參加（聽不清）的任何人都可能對歐洲消費者感到恐慌。這更側重於英國。我認為，您的業務可能會分散更多。但是你談到了它在那裡的表現如何。我們在數字中清楚地看到了這一點。您能否讓我們了解一下類別差異有多大？你正在獲得一些份額。很明顯，這是一個品牌差異。但也許還有，只是要注意它可能會放慢速度嗎？從廣義上講，他們一直在談論英國的雜貨店總銷售額下降了中高個位數百分比。你在那裡增長了 12%。我們如何看待未來？你能繼續這樣下去嗎？還是我們應該期待一些放緩？你如何看待今年剩下的時間？

Well, the biggest impact to the rest of the year is, as we said, the Russia-Ukraine situation and the fact that we're not shipping into Russia. We have a Pringles business there that we've discontinued, and we're not shipping anything into Russia. But in terms of the consumer and the outlook, what I would tell you is the RTEC category, we have seen it decelerating, but the [salty] remains extremely strong. Our portable wholesome snacks business is really coming back as the consumer is coming back.

好吧，正如我們所說，對今年剩餘時間的最大影響是俄羅斯-烏克蘭局勢以及我們沒有向俄羅斯發貨的事實。我們在那裡停止了品客薯片的業務，並且我們不會向俄羅斯運送任何東西。但就消費者和前景而言，我要告訴你的是 RTEC 類別，我們已經看到它在減速，但 [鹹味] 仍然非常強勁。隨著消費者的回歸，我們的便攜式健康零食業務真正回歸了。

So when we look at our categories, it's -- what you saw in the first quarter was exactly that the RTEC slowing down, kind of flattish and salty being very strong and wholesome snacks being very strong. And inside those categories with our brands performing very well, highly differentiated, great innovations coming to market, we anticipate that continuing. And as I said to Rob, it's 4 years now that this business has reliably delivered on the top line and the bottom line.

因此，當我們查看我們的類別時，您在第一季度看到的正是 RTEC 放緩，有點平淡和鹹味非常強，有益健康的零食非常強。在這些類別中，我們的品牌表現非常出色，高度差異化，偉大的創新進入市場，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。正如我對 Rob 所說，這項業務已經可靠地實現了收入和利潤，已經 4 年了。

Clearly, it's a more challenging environment now. We're seeing inflation in Continental Europe. You haven't seen that in a long time. What was typically a deflationary environment has shifted. So clearly, that will have pressure on the consumer. But what we're seeing right now is, obviously, that's pervasive everywhere. And so it's not just at the grocery store. Just like in all parts of the country, it's wide ranging. And the fact that we are in the types of business that we're in is a good place to be in an environment like this. And when you have strong brands inside of that, it's an even better place to be. So we're very confident in the European performance continuing to be strong.

顯然，現在這是一個更具挑戰性的環境。我們看到歐洲大陸出現通貨膨脹。你已經很久沒有看到了。通常通縮的環境已經發生了變化。很明顯，這會給消費者帶來壓力。但我們現在看到的是，顯然，這無處不在。所以它不僅僅是在雜貨店。就像在全國各地一樣，範圍很廣。事實上，我們所從事的業務類型是在這樣的環境中的好地方。當您在其中擁有強大的品牌時，這是一個更好的地方。因此，我們對歐洲表現繼續強勁充滿信心。

Okay. That's helpful. And I just want to follow up on MorningStar. You gave -- you touched on a little bit there with some pausing household penetration and distribution gains and some price competition. But how much is that decline would you say more driven by the consumer versus competition? Is there sort of a plateau in consumer interest? Is it really just more some of the competitive intensity? And maybe one clarification, too. With that MorningStar bar chart, it's under North America Frozen. Is it just a simplicity of the language where that also includes the refrigerated incogmeato? Or is that strictly speaking just the Frozen piece of that brand?

好的。這很有幫助。我只想跟進晨星。你給了 - 你在一些暫停的家庭滲透和分銷收益以及一些價格競爭中觸及了一點。但是你會說這種下降在多大程度上是由消費者和競爭驅動的呢？消費者興趣是否存在平台期？真的只是更多的競爭強度嗎？也許還有一個澄清。使用 MorningStar 條形圖，它位於 North America Frozen 之下。它只是一種簡單的語言，其中還包括冷藏的隱姓埋名嗎？或者嚴格來說，這只是那個品牌的冰雪奇緣？

No. I think -- I'll start there. That includes the incogmeato, which is a small portion of the total MorningStar Farms. In the broader question around what's happening in the category, I'd say, in effect, you can think about the pandemic having pulled forward trial penetration and buy rates. And you saw that in the first year because there was so much at-home consumption across the grocery store, and this was a new hot category. I think it jumped forward 2 years.

不，我想——我會從那裡開始。這包括 incogmeato，它只是晨星農場總數的一小部分。在關於該類別正在發生的事情的更廣泛的問題中，我想說，實際上，您可以考慮大流行已經推動了試驗滲透率和購買率。你在第一年就看到了這一點，因為雜貨店裡有很多家庭消費，這是一個新的熱門類別。我認為它向前跳躍了2年。

You also saw irrational exuberance in the category and the entrant of many, many new players, which took a lot of shelf space, took a lot of trial, not always the highest quality offerings, to be honest with you. And we've seen this in many categories in the past that take off -- they have a shakeout period. And I think what you're seeing now is a bit of that hangover from the pull forward of all those various components.

您還看到了該類別的非理性繁榮以及許多新玩家的進入，他們佔用了大量的貨架空間，進行了大量的試驗，並不總是最高質量的產品，老實說。我們在過去的許多類別中都看到了這一點——它們有一個震盪期。而且我認為你現在看到的是所有這些不同組件向前推進的一些宿醉。

MorningStar Farms, that's why we're looking at the 2-year CAGR. It's still the original since 1975, a very, very strong consumer base. When we look at our brand equity scores, we know that it's still performing very, very well. And so we're bullish on the category and the brand. But I think what we're seeing is, again, just the pull forward from the pandemic and having to lap that rather exceptional year.

晨星農場，這就是我們關注 2 年復合年增長率的原因。它仍然是自 1975 年以來的原始產品，擁有非常非常強大的消費者基礎。當我們查看我們的品牌資產得分時，我們知道它的表現仍然非常非常好。所以我們看好品類和品牌。但我認為，我們再次看到的是從大流行中向前邁進，並且不得不度過那相當特殊的一年。

The next question is from Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉考夫曼。

I have a follow-up question to Rob's question on SG&A. Just wanted to see if you could give details on how much brand building was down in Q1. And was this just in cereal or other aspects of the portfolio? And then how should we think about your brand building investments increasing in the second half as cereal comes back to fuller inventory levels?

對於 Rob 關於 SG&A 的問題，我有一個後續問題。只是想看看您能否詳細說明第一季度品牌建設下降了多少。這只是在穀物或產品組合的其他方面嗎？然後我們應該如何看待您的品牌建設投資在下半年隨著穀物恢復到更充分的庫存水平而增加？

Yes. I think it was predominantly North America cereal, and it was planned. And I think we knew that going into the year. We knew that going into the quarter. And I think the good news is production is ahead of plan. We are ramping up inventory. And so we'll be restoring commercial activity faster than planned. And I think the spending will follow that.

是的。我認為它主要是北美穀物，這是計劃好的。我認為我們知道這一點。我們知道進入本季度。我認為好消息是生產超前。我們正在增加庫存。因此，我們將比計劃更快地恢復商業活動。我認為支出將隨之而來。

And I think, as I mentioned earlier, from a full year standpoint, our outlook is, call it, flattish with our currency -- on a currency-neutral basis. So that -- on SG&A. So that's kind of the shape of how the spend will be through the course of the year.

而且我認為，正如我之前提到的，從全年的角度來看，我們的前景與我們的貨幣持平——在貨幣中性的基礎上。所以——關於SG&A。這就是全年支出的形式。

Great. And it seems like you are making good progress on rebuilding cereal inventory, and it's coming in ahead of plan. When do you expect to see a recovery in North America cereal market share? And how do you think about balancing pricing growth on cereal with restoring market share and regaining TDPs?

偉大的。看起來你們在重建穀物庫存方面取得了良好的進展，而且比計劃提前到來。您預計北美穀物市場份額何時會恢復？您如何看待穀物價格增長與恢復市場份額和重新獲得 TDP 之間的平衡？

Yes. So Pamela, what I'd say is, as I said in the prepared remarks, we're looking at sequential recovery, right? And we're not going to forecast market share when we're going to be at a certain point, but we're bound and determined to continue week after week, month after month to continue to build our TDPs, build our shelf presence, build our commercial activity, which includes displays and merchandising, so that we exit the year with great momentum close to where perhaps we were before all this occurred. And so that's essentially the way we're thinking about it.

是的。所以帕梅拉，我想說的是，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們正在考慮連續復甦，對嗎？我們不會在某個時間點預測市場份額，但我們有義務並決心一周又一周、一個月又一個月地繼續建立我們的 TDP，建立我們的貨架存在，建立我們的商業活動，包括展示和商品推銷，以便我們以強勁的勢頭結束這一年，接近我們在這一切發生之前的狀態。所以這基本上就是我們思考它的方式。

The second half has the return to commercial activity that looks much more similar to prestrike. And so that's how we're thinking about it. We're pleased about the progress to date, but we remain very aggressive in terms of making sure that we continue the progress that we've seen so far.

下半場恢復商業活動，看起來更類似於 prestrike。這就是我們的想法。我們對迄今為止取得的進展感到高興，但在確保我們繼續取得迄今為止所取得的進展方面，我們仍然非常積極。

Our next question is from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

I think there was some concern among investors, I guess, including me that your Africa business might have trouble later this year, maybe procuring all the wheat it needs just given that Africa in general buys a lot from Eastern Europe. So I think you relayed a lot of those concerns today, great to hear, but I think there's still a desire to hear maybe a bit more about where your business in Africa, your noodle business in particular, right, procures most of its wheat, how locked in it is, and if there is any risk you see of just not being able to get product beyond just the inflationary factor.

我想投資者之間存在一些擔憂，包括我在內，你們的非洲業務可能會在今年晚些時候遇到麻煩，也許只是考慮到非洲總體上從東歐購買了很多小麥，所以採購了它需要的所有小麥。所以我認為你今天傳達了很多這些擔憂，很高興聽到，但我認為仍然希望聽到更多關於你在非洲的業務，特別是你的麵條業務，對，採購大部分小麥，它的鎖定程度如何，以及您是否看到除了通貨膨脹因素之外無法獲得產品的任何風險。

Yes, Ken. So obviously, we're very pleased with the African performance in general, Multipro in particular. You're seeing their ability to take price is exceptional to cover rising input costs, currency and so forth. And we've mentioned many times, they've got they've got 4 decades of experience on the African continent. And their agility and ability to overcome obstacles continues to be very, very impressive. And the moat that we've built around that country in terms of our route to market with Multipro continues to be impressive. They're adding suppliers. They're adding points of distribution on a regular basis to continue to build that business.

是的，肯。很明顯，我們對非洲的整體表現非常滿意，尤其是 Multipro。您會看到他們的定價能力非常出色，可以涵蓋不斷上漲的投入成本、貨幣等。我們已經多次提到，他們在非洲大陸擁有 4 年的經驗。他們的敏捷性和克服障礙的能力仍然非常非常令人印象深刻。就我們與 Multipro 進入市場的路線而言，我們圍繞該國建立的護城河仍然令人印象深刻。他們正在增加供應商。他們定期增加分銷點以繼續建立該業務。

Now on the procurement front, there's clearly a lot of wheat that comes from Russia and Ukraine, and they've pivoted to all around the world to get supplies to replace that, and they've done that very effectively. And that's really across the world. And so they've got line of sight to good product production. They've got line of sight to meet our noodles forecasts for the remainder of the year and even into next year. And so I think it's down to execution. It's down to planning, and it's down to just the experience that they bring to bear in virtually everything that they do.

現在在採購方面，顯然有很多小麥來自俄羅斯和烏克蘭，他們已經轉向世界各地以獲取替代品，而且他們做得非常有效。這真的是全世界。所以他們已經看到了良好的產品生產。他們的視線可以滿足我們對今年剩餘時間甚至明年的麵條預測。所以我認為這取決於執行。這取決於計劃，而這取決於他們在他們所做的幾乎所有事情中帶來的體驗。

Amit, I don't know if you want to add anything.

阿米特，我不知道您是否要添加任何內容。

Our next question is from David Palmer of Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Palmer。

And just one more follow-up question on the amazing quarter you guys are having in Europe and the snacks. Just judging from one of your slides, it looks like you had mid-teens organic growth there, which was very impressive. You had -- I think it was 10 points of price there, which is also impressive. It's typically a market where it takes a while to get pricing in place. So there are some things that are just impressive versus the peers out there. But I'm wondering if there's other insights about maybe this being more of a mobility play on your snacks business there than what we would typically see from your snacks business here in the U.S. where a lot of the snacks were had more at home or at least some of the marketing was more around mobility and why that should be sustaining from here. And any sort of like timing benefits that might have happened for the first quarter?

還有一個關於你們在歐洲和小吃的驚人季度的後續問題。僅從你的一張幻燈片來看，看起來你在那裡有十幾歲的有機增長，這非常令人印象深刻。你有 - 我認為那裡的價格是 10 個百分點，這也令人印象深刻。這通常是一個需要一段時間才能確定定價的市場。因此，與同行相比，有些事情令人印象深刻。但我想知道是否有其他見解表明這可能更多地是對您的零食業務的流動性，而不是我們通常從您在美國的零食業務中看到的情況，因為很多零食在家中或在至少一些營銷更多的是圍繞移動性以及為什麼應該從這裡持續下去。第一季度可能發生的任何類似的時間優勢？

Yes, David. So there's really no timing benefits in the first quarter. As I said, it's just a very, very good quarter that Europe delivered. Part of the mobility and return to mobility definitely benefits our portable wholesome snacks. So that's kind of a new third leg that is performing now very well.

是的，大衛。因此，第一季度確實沒有時間優勢。正如我所說，這只是歐洲交付的一個非常非常好的季度。部分機動性和回歸機動性絕對有利於我們的便攜式健康零食。所以這是一種新的第三條腿，現在表現非常好。

Pringles, one of the magic of Pringles is it's a very differentiated brand. Its innovation performance in Europe has been very strong. And its brand messaging and communication has been very strong. And that's allowed us to do a couple of things over the course of the last, call it, 18 to 24 months. And that breaks some magic price points that had existed in the marketplace for some time. And so there's no ceiling on -- there's no artificial ceiling on Pringles in terms of, call it, a GBP 1.99 in Europe. It's burst through that. And once you do that and prove to retailers and consumers that the brand is worth that, you start to see some continuing benefits. And so I'd say, breaking magic price points because of the investments in innovation and brand marketing, the return of wholesome snacks, the stabilization of cereal, it's just -- it's been a solidly delivered plan by Europe, and that's why we have confidence ex the Ukraine-Russia terrible situation that the underlying momentum continues.

品客薯片，品客薯片的魔力之一是它是一個非常差異化的品牌。它在歐洲的創新表現非常強勁。它的品牌信息傳遞和傳播非常強大。這使我們能夠在過去的 18 到 24 個月期間做幾件事。這打破了市場上已經存在了一段時間的神奇價格點。所以沒有上限——品客薯片沒有人為的上限，稱之為歐洲的 1.99 英鎊。它突破了那個。一旦你這樣做並向零售商和消費者證明該品牌是值得的，你就會開始看到一些持續的好處。所以我想說，由於對創新和品牌營銷的投資、健康零食的回歸、穀物的穩定，打破了神奇的價格點，這只是——這是歐洲可靠交付的計劃，這就是為什麼我們有信心前烏克蘭 - 俄羅斯可怕的局勢，潛在的勢頭仍在繼續。

No, that was outstanding. And I guess one follow-up to I think it was Pamela's question about the rebuilding of market share and points of distribution for cereal. I mean do you see any barriers or maybe if there's a friction point or 2 you'd call out that would -- that you have to address in getting back to those prestrike, prefire levels of 28%, 29% market share, for example, what would you call out there that you're trying to perhaps overcome as you're getting back to those levels?

不，那太出色了。我想我認為這是帕梅拉關於重建穀物市場份額和分銷點的問題的後續行動。我的意思是你是否看到任何障礙，或者如果有一個或 2 個摩擦點，你會呼籲——你必須解決這些問題，以恢復那些預擊，預火水平 28%，29% 的市場份額，例如，當你回到那些水平時，你會說你試圖克服的什麼？

Yes. So first, I'd start with saying we are not at all complacent about this, and we're not at all underestimating the challenge of rebuilding our business, but we do know a couple of things. The brands are very, very strong. So if you look at the brands that have returned to I wouldn't even say yet adequate levels of inventory, but better levels of inventory like Froot Loops and Frosted Flakes, performing well, getting their shares back. And then brands like -- some other brands -- Rice Krispies is one where obviously was very impacted by the fire, not yet there because the inventories aren't close to where we need them to be.

是的。因此，首先，我首先要說我們一點也不自滿，我們一點也不低估重建業務的挑戰，但我們確實知道一些事情。這些品牌非常非常強大。因此，如果您查看已返回的品牌，我什至不會說庫存水平足夠，而是像 Froot Loops 和 Frosted Flakes 這樣的庫存水平更高，表現良好，收回了他們的份額。然後像其他品牌這樣的品牌——Rice Krispies 顯然受到了火災的嚴重影響，但還沒有，因為庫存離我們需要的地方不近。

And so we do know that the brands are -- remain very strong. These are iconic brands that consumers love. They're important to our retail partners. And again, we don't take that for granted. But as we rebuild inventory and we put commercial activity behind these beloved brands and we get our TDPs back, then we're very confident we'll continue to improve the business and get it back to where it belongs. But again, we don't take that for granted. We've got work to do, but we know what that work is, we know how to do it, and we're doing it.

所以我們確實知道這些品牌 - 仍然非常強大。這些都是消費者喜愛的標誌性品牌。它們對我們的零售合作夥伴很重要。再說一次，我們不認為這是理所當然的。但是，隨著我們重建庫存並將商業活動置於這些深受喜愛的品牌背後，並恢復我們的 TDP，那麼我們非常有信心我們將繼續改善業務並將其恢復到應有的位置。但同樣，我們並不認為這是理所當然的。我們有工作要做，但我們知道工作是什麼，我們知道如何去做，而且我們正在做。

Operator, I think we have time one more.

接線員，我想我們還有時間。

Okay. Our final question is from Alexia Howard from Bernstein.

好的。我們的最後一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Alexia Howard。

Can I just ask about the input cost inflation? You said double digits for the year and that have increased 2% to 3% since last quarter. Are we talking about teen level, high teens, low teens, low double digits? Just to give us an idea of where you sit versus everybody else. And given the length of the hedges, I know you can't give us exact numbers, but would it -- would we be directionally correct in thinking that the step-up in grain and oil inflation that happened as a result of Russia-Ukraine is really not likely to hit you until very late in 2022 and looking out into 2023? And I have a follow-up.

我可以問一下投入成本通脹嗎？你說今年是兩位數，自上個季度以來增長了 2% 到 3%。我們是在談論青少年水平，高青少年，低青少年，低兩位數嗎？只是為了讓我們了解您與其他人的位置。考慮到對沖的長度，我知道你不能給我們確切的數字，但是如果我們認為由於俄羅斯和烏克蘭而導致的糧食和石油通脹上升，我們會在方向上正確嗎？直到 2022 年很晚並展望 2023 年，真的不太可能打到你嗎？我有一個後續行動。

Alexia, I think if you were to kind of look at specifics, it was in the teens. When we started, it was probably in the mid-teens. It's moved up 2 or 3 points from there. So that's kind of the level of inflation that we're looking at. And I think in terms of the hedges, again, it obviously covers a lot of commodities. And like I said, at an overall level, we are around 80%. We have a rolling program. And so I think we keep adding on a rolling basis. So as some of the Russia-Ukraine, is it already in, some of it is in, but it will continue to bleed through, right, as we continue to add hedges through the program. We have visibility into what our '23 outlook is. And so I think that's all going in to the planning as we look at our revenue growth management plans ahead of us.

亞歷克西亞，我想如果你看一下細節，那是在十幾歲的時候。當我們開始時，可能是在十幾歲的時候。它從那裡向上移動了 2 或 3 個點。這就是我們正在研究的通貨膨脹水平。而且我認為就對沖而言，它顯然涵蓋了很多商品。就像我說的，在整體水平上，我們大約是 80%。我們有一個滾動計劃。所以我認為我們會繼續滾動添加。因此，作為俄羅斯-烏克蘭的一些人，它是否已經加入，其中一些已經加入，但隨著我們繼續通過該計劃增加對沖，它將繼續流血。我們可以了解我們的 '23 展望是什麼。因此，我認為這一切都將納入規劃中，因為我們正在審視我們面前的收入增長管理計劃。

Great. And just as a follow-up. I'm curious about the U.K. -- as a follow-up to Michael Lavery's question. How big is the U.K. to you guys at this point? And should we be worried about the change in regulations about labeling and product positioning in store for products that contain a fair amount of sugar? I know that there's a certain legal action with the U.K. government going on at the moment. I'm just curious about how you see that impacting your business later in the year.

偉大的。並且只是作為後續行動。我對英國很好奇——作為 Michael Lavery 問題的後續。在這一點上，英國對你們來說有多大？我們是否應該擔心含有大量糖分的產品的標籤和產品定位規則的變化？我知道英國政府目前正在採取某種法律行動。我只是好奇你如何看待這會在今年晚些時候影響你的業務。

Yes, Alexia. So it's about 5% of our business. And the HFSS, High Fat Sodium Sugar content is what you're referring to. And we have -- we're building plans to overcome merchandising, restrictions and so forth for all of the brands that are affected. So we're very confident we'll be able to do that. We don't see any impact for the remainder of this year. And we remain constructively engaged despite -- despite the legal activity, we remain constructively engaged and hopeful that we'll be able to work something out with the U.K. government. But it's all incorporated in the guidance.

是的，亞歷克西亞。所以它大約占我們業務的 5%。而HFSS，高脂肪鈉糖含量就是你所指的。我們已經 - 我們正在製定計劃，為所有受影響的品牌克服商品推銷、限制等。所以我們非常有信心能夠做到這一點。我們認為今年剩餘時間不會有任何影響。儘管有法律活動，我們仍保持建設性參與，但我們仍保持建設性參與，並希望我們能夠與英國政府合作解決問題。但這一切都包含在指導中。

Okay. Operator, we are at 10:30. Thank you, everybody, for your interest. And if you do have follow-up calls, please do not hesitate to call us.

好的。接線員，我們在 10:30。謝謝大家的關注。如果您確實有後續電話，請隨時致電我們。

That concludes our conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

我們的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。