家樂氏 (K) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(technical difficulty) 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

（技術難度）2022 年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I will turn the call over to John Renwick, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning for Kellogg Company. Mr. Renwick, you may begin your conference call.

此時，我會將電話轉給 Kellogg 公司投資者關係和企業規劃副總裁 John Renwick。 Renwick 先生，您可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning and thank you for joining us today for a review of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results as well as our outlook for 2023. I'm joined this morning by Steve Cahillane, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Amit Banati, our Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，運營商。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年業績以及我們對 2023 年的展望。今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫·卡希蘭 (Steve Cahillane) 也加入了我的行列；和我們的副董事長兼首席財務官 Amit Banati。

Slide #3 shows our forward-looking statements disclaimer. As you are aware, certain statements made today, such as projections for Kellogg Company's future performance, are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the third slide of this presentation as well as to our public SEC filings. This is of particular note amidst the current operating environment, which includes unusually high input cost inflation, global supply disruptions and other uncertain global macroeconomic conditions, all of whose direction, length and severity are so difficult to predict.

幻燈片 #3 顯示了我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。如您所知，今天發表的某些聲明（例如對家樂氏公司未來業績的預測）屬於前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與預期結果存在重大差異。有關可能導致這些結果不同的因素的更多信息，請參閱本演示文稿的第三張幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件。在當前的運營環境中，這一點尤其值得注意，其中包括異常高的投入成本通脹、全球供應中斷和其他不確定的全球宏觀經濟狀況，所有這些狀況的方向、持續時間和嚴重程度都很難預測。

A recording of today's webcast and supporting documents will be archived for at least 90 days on the Investor page of kelloggcompany.com.

今天的網絡廣播錄音和支持文件將在 kelloggcompany.com 的投資者頁面上存檔至少 90 天。

As always, when referring to our results and outlook, unless otherwise noted, we will be referring to them on an organic basis for net sales and on a currency-neutral adjusted basis for operating profit and earnings per share.

與往常一樣，在提及我們的業績和展望時，除非另有說明，否則我們將在淨銷售額的有機基礎上以及在貨幣中性調整的基礎上參考營業利潤和每股收益。

And now, I'll turn it over to Steve.

現在，我將把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. The fourth quarter completed what was an excellent year, competitively, financially and in terms of the grit and skill our organization demonstrated in executing through what were truly extraordinary circumstances. The strength of our snacks portfolio was clearly evident with double-digit net sales growth across all regions, underpinned by strong end-market performance.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。第四季度完成了出色的一年，無論是在競爭上、財務上，還是在我們的組織在執行非常特殊的情況下所展示的勇氣和技能方面。在強勁的終端市場表現的支持下，我們零食產品組合的優勢顯而易見，所有地區的淨銷售額均實現兩位數增長。

We sustained exceptional growth in emerging markets, led by our noodles and other portfolio in Africa, but also posting strong growth in snacks and cereal across AMEA and Latin America. We mitigated the profit impact of unusually high input costs that accelerated during the year, leaning into productivity and carefully executed revenue growth management actions. We navigated through economy-wide supply bottlenecks and shortages and work to restore capacity in much of our business, most notably in North America cereal and North America frozen foods. The result of all of this was strong financial delivery that exceeded expectations throughout the year, prompting us to raise guidance more than once this year for net sales, operating profit and EPS and still over-deliver that guidance, thanks to a strong fourth quarter.

我們在非洲的麵條和其他產品組合的帶動下，在新興市場保持了非凡的增長，而且在 AMEA 和拉丁美洲的零食和穀物產品也實現了強勁增長。我們減輕了年內加速的異常高投入成本對利潤的影響，提高生產力並謹慎執行收入增長管理措施。我們克服了整個經濟範圍內的供應瓶頸和短缺，並努力恢復我們大部分業務的產能，尤其是北美穀物和北美冷凍食品。所有這一切的結果是全年超出預期的強勁財務交付，促使我們今年不止一次提高淨銷售額、營業利潤和每股收益的指引，並且由於第四季度的強勁表現，仍然超額交付了該指引。

We also announced, planned and made significant progress towards a separation of our company that will not only improve performance of North America Cereal Co. but provide clearer visibility into the strength of the snacks-oriented parent company.

我們還宣布、計劃並在我們公司的分離方面取得了重大進展，這不僅將提高北美穀物公司的業績，而且可以更清楚地了解這家以零食為導向的母公司的實力。

With all of this going on and amidst global supply disruptions and high costs, we kept our focus on sustaining momentum in all of our businesses. We stay true to our Deploy for Growth strategy, leveraging our growth shape portfolio, orienting our brand building and innovation toward winning occasions and sustaining momentum in our biggest world-class brands, all while working to restore service levels and leveraging all levers of revenue growth management in an attempt to keep up with soaring cost inflation.

在所有這一切發生的情況下，在全球供應中斷和高成本的情況下，我們一直專注於保持我們所有業務的發展勢頭。我們堅持我們的 Deploy for Growth 戰略，利用我們的增長型產品組合，將我們的品牌建設和創新導向成功的場合併保持我們最大的世界級品牌的發展勢頭，同時努力恢復服務水平並利用所有收入增長槓桿管理層試圖跟上飆升的成本通脹。

The results of this focus on sustaining momentum are shown clearly in our organic net sales growth, which is shown on Slide #6. Not only did our sales come in ahead of expectations every quarter, but our growth accelerated sequentially every quarter. And this growth was impressively broad-based in all 4 of our regions and in all 4 of our major category groups: snacks, cereal, frozen and noodles and other.

這種專注於保持勢頭的結果清楚地體現在我們的有機淨銷售額增長中，如幻燈片 #6 所示。我們不僅每個季度的銷售額都超出預期，而且每個季度的增長都在連續加速。這種增長在我們所有 4 個地區和我們所有 4 個主要類別組中都令人印象深刻：零食、穀物、冷凍和麵條等。

We also remain committed to our Better Days strategy towards environmental, social and governance practices. Slide #7 shows some examples of tangible actions take and recognitions received during the fourth quarter alone, illustrating this continued commitment. And you can expect us to maintain this focus on execution and reliable financial delivery in 2023.

我們還繼續致力於我們在環境、社會和治理實踐方面的 Better Days 戰略。幻燈片 #7 顯示了僅在第四季度就採取的具體行動和獲得的認可的一些例子，說明了這種持續的承諾。您可以期待我們在 2023 年繼續專注於執行和可靠的財務交付。

Slide #8 shows that you can expect many of the same drivers of this financial delivery as we saw in 2022. Our snacks business, which is roughly half of today's Kellogg Company, should see sustained momentum led by truly world-class brands.

幻燈片 #8 顯示，您可以期待與我們在 2022 年看到的許多相同的財務交付驅動因素。我們的零食業務大約佔今天家樂氏公司的一半，應該會看到真正世界級品牌引領的持續發展勢頭。

In our strong emerging markets businesses, we expect to continue to drive growth and manage through what are always interesting macroeconomic conditions. Input cost inflation remains high, which means we will again be focused on realizing productivity and cost savings, supplemented by utilizing all levers of our database revenue growth management disciplines around the world.

在我們強大的新興市場業務中，我們預計將繼續推動增長並應對總是有趣的宏觀經濟狀況。輸入成本通脹仍然居高不下，這意味著我們將再次專注於實現生產力和成本節約，並輔之以利用我們在全球的數據庫收入增長管理學科的所有槓桿。

And we continue to progress on our supply recovery in specific businesses. As a result, we are forecasting growth in net sales and operating profit that are above our long-term targets, even as we continue to invest in the enhancement of capabilities, service levels and the strength of our brands.

我們繼續在特定業務的供應恢復方面取得進展。因此，我們預測淨銷售額和營業利潤的增長將高於我們的長期目標，即使我們繼續投資於增強能力、服務水平和品牌實力。

Meanwhile, we continue to march toward the separation into more focused companies, starting with the spin-off of North America Cereal Co. still scheduled for late this year. Work has progressed on the carving out of financials, the designing of new organizations and the separation of key systems and processes.

與此同時，我們繼續朝著更專注的公司的方向前進，從仍計劃於今年晚些時候分拆北美穀物公司開始。在分拆財務、設計新組織以及分離關鍵系統和流程方面的工作取得了進展。

Separately, you'll recall that we were exploring strategic options for the plant-based food business, which represents about 2% of our company's net sales. Given current market conditions as well as our confidence in this business as a long-term growth vehicle, we have decided to retain it as part of Global Snacking Co. We remain as confident as ever in the value to be created by making Global Snacking Co. and North America Cereal Co. more focused with better visibility into and valuation of their performance and outlook. In short, we are poised for another good year of results.

另外，您會記得我們正在探索植物性食品業務的戰略選擇，該業務約占我們公司淨銷售額的 2%。鑑於當前的市場狀況以及我們對這項業務作為長期增長工具的信心，我們決定將其保留為 Global Snacking Co. 的一部分。我們對 Global Snacking Co. 所創造的價值仍然充滿信心. 和 North America Cereal Co. 更專注於更好地了解和評估其業績和前景。簡而言之，我們準備好再創佳績。

Before discussing our businesses in detail, let me now turn it over to Amit for a review of our financials.

在詳細討論我們的業務之前，讓我現在將其轉交給阿米特來審查我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Slide #9 provides a summary of our '22 financial results. A better-than-expected performance in quarter 4 drove us to hit or exceed our guidance for the full year. Our net sales led the way, accelerating to 16% organic growth in the fourth quarter and resulting in 12% organic growth for the year, which was higher than expected. This top line growth more than offset a sizable year-on-year increase in investment, resulting in an adjusted basis operating profit growing 20% on a currency-neutral basis in quarter 4. This brought our full year growth to 7%, also exceeding expectations.

謝謝，史蒂夫，大家早上好。幻燈片 #9 提供了我們 '22 財務結果的摘要。第 4 季度好於預期的業績促使我們達到或超過了全年的指引。我們的淨銷售額一馬當先，第四季度有機增長加速至 16%，全年實現 12% 的有機增長，高於預期。這一營收增長足以抵消投資的大幅同比增長，導致第四季度調整後的基礎營業利潤在貨幣中性基礎上增長 20%。這使我們的全年增長率達到 7%，也超過了期望。

Our adjusted basis earnings per share increased 17% on a currency-neutral basis in quarter 4 despite being weighed down by the as-anticipated increase in interest expense and reduction in pension income related to the decline in financial markets. This quarter 4 performance resulted in full year EPS growth of 5% on a currency-neutral adjusted basis ahead of our expectations.

我們調整後的每股收益在貨幣中性基礎上在第 4 季度增長了 17%，儘管受到利息支出的預期增加和與金融市場下滑相關的養老金收入減少的拖累。第 4 季度的業績導致全年每股收益在貨幣中性調整的基礎上增長 5%，超出我們的預期。

Cash flow came in at about $1.2 billion, an increase from the prior year and in line with our expectations. Excluded from our currency-neutral results, of course, is foreign currency translation, which reduced our net sales, operating profit and earnings per share by about 4 percentage points in quarter 4 and about the same for the full year EPS.

現金流量約為 12 億美元，比上年有所增加，符合我們的預期。當然，我們的貨幣中性結果不包括外幣折算，這使我們在第 4 季度的淨銷售額、營業利潤和每股收益減少了約 4 個百分點，與全年每股收益大致相同。

Now let's look at each metric in a little more detail. Slide #11 lays out the components of our strong net sales growth. Our double-digit organic growth in net sales in 2022 was driven by price/mix, which accelerated in the second half as we continue to execute revenue growth management actions around the world to cover accelerated input cost inflation.

現在讓我們更詳細地了解每個指標。幻燈片 #11 列出了我們強勁的淨銷售額增長的組成部分。我們 2022 年淨銷售額的兩位數有機增長是由價格/組合推動的，下半年隨著我們繼續在全球範圍內執行收入增長管理行動以應對加速的投入成本通脹，價格/組合加速增長。

Volume grew slightly in the quarter due to the continued recovery in North America Cereal and declined only modestly for the full year, reflecting both price elasticity that has not moved up as much or as soon as we had expected, as well as our replenishment of trade inventories during the year as our supply improved. Foreign currency translation was a headwind all year with particularly adverse impact in quarter 3 and quarter 4.

由於北美穀物的持續復甦，本季度銷量略有增長，全年僅小幅下降，這反映了價格彈性沒有像我們預期的那樣上升或沒有像我們預期的那樣上升，以及我們的貿易補充隨著我們的供應改善，年內庫存減少。外幣換算全年都是不利因素，尤其是在第 3 季度和第 4 季度的不利影響。

Let's discuss gross profit on Slide #12. Supply disruptions created incremental costs and inefficiencies throughout the year, and input cost inflation accelerated across the year. Yet because of productivity efforts and effective revenue growth management actions around the world, we were able to largely offset the dollar impact of those higher input costs, and we grew our overall gross profit dollars this year. In fact, our gross profit dollars came in higher than expected both in quarter 4 and the full year.

讓我們討論幻燈片 #12 的毛利。供應中斷在全年造成成本增加和效率低下，投入成本通脹在全年加速。然而，由於全球範圍內的生產力努力和有效的收入增長管理行動，我們能夠在很大程度上抵消這些較高投入成本的美元影響，並且我們今年的整體毛利潤有所增長。事實上，我們的毛利潤在第 4 季度和全年都高於預期。

From a percentage margin perspective, though, there is a mechanical impact of matching input cost inflation with price realization, and because we could not cover the unpredictable inefficiencies from economy-wide bottlenecks and shortages. We did see a year-on-year increase in gross profit margin in quarter 4 as we lapped the first of 2 quarters impacted by the fire and strike, and we finished the full year in line with expectations we had communicated.

不過，從利潤率百分比的角度來看，將投入成本通脹與價格實現相匹配會產生機械影響，因為我們無法彌補經濟範圍內的瓶頸和短缺帶來的不可預測的低效率。我們確實看到第 4 季度的毛利率同比增長，因為我們已經結束了受火災和罷工影響的第 2 個季度中的第一個季度，並且我們按照我們傳達的預期完成了全年。

In 2023, we expect to continue to grow gross profit dollars while our margin stabilizes and improve slightly during the year. Some of this is related to the fire and strike impact being onetime in nature, largely isolated to quarter 4 '21 and quarter 1 '22. And some of it will come from bottlenecks and shortages gradually diminishing, but this improved margin performance will also be driven by price realization catching up to input cost inflation that is expected to moderate in the back half of the year.

到 2023 年，我們預計毛利潤將繼續增長，而我們的利潤率將在年內穩定並略有改善。其中一些與火災和罷工影響在本質上是一次性的有關，主要是孤立於 21 年第 4 季度和 22 年第 1 季度。其中一些將來自瓶頸和短缺逐漸減少，但這種改善的利潤率表現也將受到價格實現趕上輸入成本通脹的推動，預計下半年將放緩。

Moving down the income statement on Slide #13. We see how our SG&A accelerated its year-on-year increase across the year, just as we said it would. After having been curved during severe supply disruptions, including the fire and strike in North America, our advertising and promotion investment was ramped back up in the second half and finished the year roughly flat with 2021. Overhead, meanwhile, increased year-on-year in all 4 quarters as we gradually returned to travel and meetings and as we accrued higher incentive compensation related to our above-budget financial performance. In 2023, the quarterly phasing of SG&A expense will be affected by lapping last year's North America Cereal pullback on brand building in the first half and rapid ramp-up in the second half.

向下移動幻燈片 #13 的損益表。正如我們所說的那樣，我們看到我們的 SG&A 如何在全年加速同比增長。在經歷了嚴重的供應中斷（包括北美的火災和罷工）之後，我們的廣告和促銷投資在下半年有所回升，並與 2021 年基本持平。與此同時，管理費用同比增加在所有 4 個季度中，我們逐漸恢復出差和會議，並且我們獲得了與超出預算的財務業績相關的更高激勵薪酬。 2023 年，SG&A 費用的季度分階段將受到去年北美穀物上半年品牌建設回調和下半年快速增長的影響。

Slide #14 shows our continued upward trajectory on operating profit. Operating profit in the fourth quarter was up 16% year-on-year, including a negative currency translation impact of almost 4 percentage points. While it was lapping a year earlier decline due to last year's fire and strike, this year's quarter 4 profit was above that of 2 years ago. Importantly, it featured exceptional top line growth and a significant year-on-year increase in investment. For the full year, our operating profit increased by 4% after a negative 3% impact for currency translation. As you can see on the slide, this operating profit was not only higher than 2021, it was also higher than 2 and 3 years ago.

幻燈片 #14 顯示了我們營業利潤的持續上升軌跡。第四季度營業利潤同比增長 16%，其中包括近 4 個百分點的負面貨幣換算影響。雖然由於去年的火災和罷工而導致去年同期的下滑，但今年第 4 季度的利潤高於 2 年前。重要的是，它具有出色的收入增長和投資同比顯著增長。全年，在貨幣換算帶來 3% 的負面影響後，我們的營業利潤增長了 4%。正如你在幻燈片上看到的，這個營業利潤不僅高於 2021 年，也高於 2 年和 3 年前。

Slide #15 shows our below-the-line items, which were again collectively negative to EPS growth in the quarter and, therefore, the full year. Driven by nonoperating factors, there will be an even larger headwind in 2023. Interest expense was up sharply year-on-year in quarter 4 as rising interest rates affected the roughly 1/5 of our debt that is floating. The quarterly run rate for 2023 interest expense will likely be a bit higher than this quarter 4 level. Other income decreased in quarter 4 and the full year. Most of this was related to the midyear remeasurement of certain U.S. benefit plans, though, in quarter 4, it was partially offset by better-than-expected ForEx gains and interest income that we do not expect to repeat.

幻燈片 #15 顯示了我們的線下項目，這些項目再次對本季度乃至全年的 EPS 增長產生負面影響。在非運營因素的推動下，2023 年的逆風將更大。由於利率上升影響了我們大約 1/5 的浮動債務，因此第四季度的利息支出同比大幅上升。 2023 年利息支出的季度運行率可能會略高於第 4 季度的水平。其他收入在第 4 季度和全年均有所下降。其中大部分與某些美國福利計劃的年中重新衡量有關，但在第 4 季度，它部分被我們預計不會重複的好於預期的外匯收益和利息收入所抵消。

As we have discussed previously, the decline in benefit plan income is related to 2022's fall in financial markets, which reduced the value of planned assets and raised interest rates. We remeasured about half of our planned exposure in the second half of 2022, and 2023 will feel the impact of remeasuring all of our plans. Hence, we could see a year-on-year decline in other income in 2023 that is almost twice the decrease we recorded in 2022. Our effective tax rate came in a little higher than expected in quarter 4 and, therefore, the full year, mostly reflecting geography mix. For 2023, we expect the tax rate to be approximately 22%.

正如我們之前所討論的，福利計劃收入的下降與 2022 年金融市場的下跌有關，這降低了計劃資產的價值並提高了利率。我們在 2022 年下半年重新衡量了大約一半的計劃敞口，2023 年將感受到重新衡量我們所有計劃的影響。因此，我們可能會看到 2023 年其他收入同比下降，幾乎是 2022 年下降幅度的兩倍。我們的有效稅率略高於第四季度的預期，因此全年，主要反映地理組合。對於 2023 年，我們預計稅率約為 22%。

Our JV earnings and minority interests were collectively flattish year-on-year in quarter 4, finishing the year higher than last year, led by good performance by our joint ventures. Collectively, these are expected to be relatively flat in 2023. And average shares outstanding were flattish in 2022 as increased options exercises by employees over the course of the year offset the benefit of share buybacks executed early in the year.

我們的合資企業收益和少數股東權益在第 4 季度總體上與去年同期持平，全年收盤時高於去年，這主要歸功於我們合資企業的良好表現。總的來說，這些預計在 2023 年將相對持平。2022 年平均流通股持平，因為員工在這一年中增加的期權行使抵消了年初執行的股票回購的好處。

Our cash flow and balance sheet also remain in very good shape, as shown on Slide #16. Our cash flow increased year-on-year despite year-on-year swings in sales and receivables in December as we lapped last year's fire and strike. This increase in cash flow over the past few years has helped us to reduce our debt right through 2022, leading to lower leverage ratios. This has given us enhanced financial flexibility even as we have continued to increase cash return to share owners in the form of an increased dividend and buybacks this year.

我們的現金流和資產負債表也保持良好狀態，如幻燈片 #16 所示。儘管去年 12 月的銷售額和應收賬款同比出現波動，但我們的現金流量同比有所增加，因為我們結束了去年的火災和罷工。過去幾年現金流量的增加幫助我們減少了到 2022 年的債務，從而降低了槓桿率。即使今年我們繼續以增加股息和回購的形式增加對股東的現金回報，這也增強了我們的財務靈活性。

Let's now pivot to 2023, starting with Slide #17, and some key assumptions behind our guidance. First, and most importantly, we expect to sustain our strong business momentum. Between price realization, the momentum of our categories and the strength of our brand plans, we are confident we can achieve another year of above-algorithm net sales growth. And while input cost inflation remains high, it should decelerate year-on-year in the second half, and the same can be said for bottlenecks and shortages. Therefore, we expect to generate above-algorithm growth for operating profit as well in 2023.

現在讓我們轉向 2023 年，從幻燈片 #17 開始，以及我們指導背後的一些關鍵假設。首先，也是最重要的是，我們希望保持強勁的業務勢頭。在價格實現、我們類別的勢頭和我們品牌計劃的實力之間，我們有信心我們可以實現又一年的高於算法的淨銷售額增長。儘管投入成本通脹仍然居高不下，但下半年同比應該會有所放緩，瓶頸和短缺也是如此。因此，我們預計 2023 年營業利潤也將實現高於算法的增長。

Next, our guidance reflects the impact of headwinds on our nonoperating below-the-line items. Interest expense will increase substantially because of the rise in interest rates worldwide. And noncash pension income will drop sharply, owing to lower asset values entering the year and to a higher interest charge, reflecting the rise in interest rates. The pending spin-off of North America Cereal Co. is still targeted to be executed towards the end of the year. For simplicity reasons only, our guidance assumes it remains in our results for the full year.

接下來，我們的指引反映了逆風對我們非經營性線下項目的影響。由於全球利率上升，利息支出將大幅增加。非現金養老金收入將急劇下降，原因是進入本年度的資產價值較低，且利息費用較高，這反映了利率上升。 North America Cereal Co. 的懸而未決的分拆仍計劃在年底前執行。僅為了簡單起見，我們的指南假設它保留在我們全年的結果中。

Slide #18 shows our guidance by key metric. Organic growth in net sales is forecast to be in the 5% to 7% range, another strong year. Given the cost environment, this growth will be weighted towards price/mix, reflecting revenue growth actions from both 2022 and this year. Importantly, this net sales growth is expected to be broad-based across our portfolio and led by momentum in snacks and in emerging markets. On an adjusted basis and excluding currency, we expect operating profit to grow in the 7% to 9% range. This above-target growth will be driven by the strong net sales, which drives the growth in gross profit dollars that fuel increased brand building.

幻燈片 #18 顯示了我們按關鍵指標的指導。預計淨銷售額的有機增長將在 5% 至 7% 之間，這又是一個強勁的年份。考慮到成本環境，這種增長將偏重於價格/組合，反映出 2022 年和今年的收入增長行動。重要的是，這種淨銷售額增長預計將廣泛應用於我們的產品組合，並受到零食和新興市場勢頭的帶動。在調整後的基礎上並排除貨幣因素，我們預計營業利潤將增長 7% 至 9%。這一高於目標的增長將受到強勁的淨銷售額的推動，這將推動毛利潤美元的增長，從而推動品牌建設的加強。

At the earnings per share level, the strong operating profit growth will be more than offset by the pension and interest headwinds we discussed earlier. The impact of the accounting remeasurement of pension and post retirement alone is negative 7 percentage points to EPS growth. Again, it should be emphasized that this is a noncash, nonoperating item, and it was driven by what was a rare steep decline in the financial markets in 2022. Without that item, our EPS would be up 3% to 5%, even despite the higher interest expense and tax rate.

在每股收益水平上，強勁的營業利潤增長將被我們之前討論的養老金和利息逆風所抵消。僅養老金和退休後的會計重估對每股收益增長的影響為負 7 個百分點。再次強調，這是一個非現金、非經營項目，它是由 2022 年金融市場罕見的急劇下滑推動的。如果沒有這個項目，我們的每股收益將增長 3% 到 5%，即使儘管如此更高的利息支出和稅率。

Cash flow is expected to come in somewhere between $1 billion and $1.1 billion. Our underlying base business cash flow will continue to grow year-on-year, reaching $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, but there will be roughly $300 million plus of cash outlays related to the pending spin-off. This is a combination of cash costs and capital expenditure, all onetime in nature and all related to executing the transaction and setting up the stand-alone business.

預計現金流量將在 10 億至 11 億美元之間。我們的基礎業務現金流將繼續同比增長，達到 13 億美元至 14 億美元，但與即將進行的分拆相關的現金支出將超過 3 億美元。這是現金成本和資本支出的組合，本質上都是一次性的，並且都與執行交易和建立獨立業務有關。

So to summarize on Slide #19, we continue to feel very good about how we are performing and about our financial condition. Across our regions and category groups, we sustained solid momentum in 2022, and we expect that momentum to continue in 2023. Amidst high cost inflation across inputs and energy, we were able to protect profit dollars through productivity and revenue growth management in 2022, and we will do so again in 2023. In an environment of disruptions up and down the supply chain, we have executed well and steadily improved service levels in 2022 and will continue to do so in 2023.

因此，總結幻燈片 #19，我們繼續對我們的表現和財務狀況感到非常滿意。在我們的地區和類別組中，我們在 2022 年保持了強勁的勢頭，我們預計這種勢頭將在 2023 年繼續。在投入和能源成本高漲的情況下，我們能夠在 2022 年通過生產力和收入增長管理來保護利潤，並且我們將在 2023 年再次這樣做。在供應鏈上下中斷的環境中，我們在 2022 年執行良好並穩步提高服務水平，並將在 2023 年繼續這樣做。

In 2022, we delivered above-target growth in currency-neutral net sales and operating profit, and we plan on doing that again in 2023. We have increased our cash flow and further deleveraged our balance sheet, giving us excellent financial flexibility going into 2023. And we remain as confident as ever in the value that can be created by spinning off North America Cereal Co. Not only will that business thrive amidst increased focus, but the strength of the remaining Global Snacking Co. will be significantly more visible. So we are looking forward to another good year in 2023.

2022 年，我們實現了高於目標的貨幣中性淨銷售額和營業利潤增長，我們計劃在 2023 年再次實現這一目標。我們增加了現金流並進一步降低了資產負債表的槓桿率，使我們在進入 2023 年時具有出色的財務靈活性. 我們對剝離 North America Cereal Co. 可以創造的價值一如既往地充滿信心。不僅該業務將在日益受到關注的情況下蓬勃發展，而且剩下的 Global Snacking Co. 的實力將更加明顯。因此，我們期待 2023 年再創佳績。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Steve to discuss our individual businesses.

有了這個，我會把它轉回史蒂夫來討論我們的個人業務。

Thanks, Amit. Let's start with Kellogg North America on Slide #21. As you can see, our largest region performed very well in 2022, straight through the fourth quarter. We started the year with a lingering inventory impact and costs arising from the second half 2021 fire and strike as well as other supply disruptions. And quarter-by-quarter, we executed well, both from a supply chain perspective and a commercial perspective, finishing the year with very strong net sales and operating profit growth.

謝謝，阿米特。讓我們從幻燈片 #21 上的 Kellogg North America 開始。如您所見，我們最大的地區在 2022 年第四季度表現非常出色。 2021 年下半年的火災和罷工以及其他供應中斷造成了持續的庫存影響和成本，我們開始了這一年。從供應鏈角度和商業角度來看，我們每個季度都表現良好，以非常強勁的淨銷售額和營業利潤增長結束了這一年。

Within North America, our largest segment is snacks, representing over half of our sales in the region. And this segment led the way in 2022, as shown on Slide #22. There was some timing of shipments, particularly year-over-year within the quarters, but North America snacks finished the year in double-digit growth. In fact, North America snacks has accelerated its organic net sales growth in each of the past 4 years. Leading the way were world-class brands like Pringles and Cheez-It, both of which generated double-digit consumption growth in 2022, and Pop-Tarts and Rice Krispies Treats, both of which sustained their multiyear momentum as well.

在北美，我們最大的細分市場是零食，占我們在該地區銷售額的一半以上。如幻燈片 #22 所示，該細分市場在 2022 年處於領先地位。出貨時間有一些變化，尤其是季度內的同比增長，但北美零食以兩位數的增長率結束了這一年。事實上，北美零食在過去 4 年的每一年都加速了其有機淨銷售額增長。引領潮流的是品客薯片和 Cheez-It 等世界級品牌，這兩個品牌在 2022 年都實現了兩位數的消費增長，而 Pop-Tarts 和 Rice Krispies Treats 也保持了多年來的增長勢頭。

Our North America cereal business, as depicted on Slide #23. This business overcame enormous obstacles on its way to delivering very strong net sales growth. We entered the year depleted on finished goods inventories. As we rebuilt those inventories SKU by SKU, we were able to replenish retailer shelves more quickly than we anticipated. And during the second half, we were able to ramp up our commercial programs, and we have entered the new year with real momentum.

我們的北美穀物業務，如幻燈片 #23 所示。該業務在實現非常強勁的淨銷售額增長的過程中克服了巨大的障礙。我們進入了成品庫存耗盡的一年。當我們逐個 SKU 重建這些庫存時，我們能夠比預期更快地補充零售商貨架。在下半年，我們能夠加強我們的商業計劃，我們以真正的勢頭進入了新的一年。

Slide #24 shows the end market progress we have made since restoring inventories and commercial activity. As you can see, our performance has continued to improve sequentially, accelerating both our consumption growth and our share recovery. This business is back on track and is poised to sustain growth in 2023 when we will have a full year of commercial activity. In addition, with supply back in place, this business has begun to restore its profit margins.

幻燈片 #24 顯示了自恢復庫存和商業活動以來我們在終端市場取得的進展。正如您所看到的，我們的業績連續改善，加速了我們的消費增長和我們的份額恢復。該業務已重回正軌，並有望在 2023 年保持增長，屆時我們將開展一整年的商業活動。此外，隨著供應恢復，該業務已開始恢復其利潤率。

North America frozen foods is shown on Slide #25. This was another business that ran into capacity and supply challenges in 2022. For Eggo, it was simply a matter of strong demand over the last couple of years, putting us up against capacity. We put in capacity at midyear and since that time, Eggo's consumption growth has accelerated. And for Morningstar Farms, we experienced significant production issues at a co-manufacturer. During the fourth quarter, supply came back online and almost immediately, we saw signs of improvement in market.

幻燈片 #25 顯示了北美冷凍食品。這是另一家在 2022 年遇到產能和供應挑戰的企業。對於 Eggo 來說，這只是過去幾年的強勁需求問題，使我們面臨產能挑戰。我們在年中投入產能，從那時起，Eggo 的消費增長加速。對於 Morningstar Farms，我們在一家合作製造商處遇到了重大的生產問題。在第四季度，供應恢復正常，我們幾乎立即就看到了市場好轉的跡象。

So moving to Slide #26. Kellogg North America has all the pieces in place for another good year in 2023. Our snacks brands are demonstrating undeniable momentum, and they represent more than half of our North America regions net sales. Our cereal business continues to outpace what has been very strong category sales growth as we continue to ramp up commercial activity. And our frozen businesses are getting past some severe supply constraints. Meanwhile, our productivity and revenue growth management actions are catching up to what has been steadily rising input cost inflation just as we are starting to see signs of bottlenecks and shortages receding. The result should be margin improvement for North America this year. And of course, North America will be moving full speed ahead with the carving out and spinning off of North America Cereal Co. We're making good progress with detailed implementation plans, all while remaining focused on delivering good financial results and executing in the marketplace.

所以轉到幻燈片#26。家樂氏北美已準備好迎接 2023 年又一個好年頭。我們的零食品牌展現出不可否認的勢頭，它們占我們北美地區淨銷售額的一半以上。隨著我們繼續增加商業活動，我們的穀物業務繼續超過非常強勁的類別銷售增長。我們的冷凍業務正在克服一些嚴重的供應限制。與此同時，我們的生產力和收入增長管理行動正在趕上一直在穩步上升的投入成本通脹，正如我們開始看到瓶頸和短缺消退的跡像一樣。結果應該是今年北美的利潤率有所提高。當然，北美將全速推進 North America Cereal Co. 的分拆和分拆。我們在詳細的實施計劃方面取得了良好進展，同時繼續專注於提供良好的財務業績並在市場上執行.

Now let's turn to Europe and Slide #27. Cost inflation accelerated faster in this region than others, particularly when energy prices and other costs soared after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Our revenue growth management actions have yet to catch up to the accelerated cost pressures, pulling down profit in the last couple of quarters and will likely remain a pressure on profits into the first half of 2023. The fourth quarter also featured a meaningful year-on-year increase in brand investment.

現在讓我們轉向歐洲和幻燈片 #27。該地區的成本通脹比其他地區加速得更快，尤其是在烏克蘭戰爭爆發後能源價格和其他成本飆升的情況下。我們的收入增長管理措施尚未趕上加速的成本壓力，這在過去幾個季度拉低了利潤，並且可能會在 2023 年上半年繼續對利潤構成壓力。第四季度的同比增長也很有意義-年增加品牌投入。

Nevertheless, Kellogg Europe had another good year, posting its fifth straight year of growth in both organic net sales and operating profit. Leading the way were snacks, which now represent more than half of our Europe region's net sales, as shown on Slide #28. And aside from the Russia impact in year-ago comparisons in quarter 3, this segment drove strong double-digit net sales growth all year. This momentum is not new. This was our fifth straight year of organic net sales growth for Europe snacks.

儘管如此，Kellogg Europe 又迎來了一個好年頭，有機淨銷售額和營業利潤連續第五年增長。領先的是零食，現在占我們歐洲地區淨銷售額的一半以上，如幻燈片 #28 所示。除了俄羅斯在第三季度與去年同期相比的影響外，該細分市場全年推動了強勁的兩位數淨銷售額增長。這種勢頭並不新鮮。這是我們歐洲零食淨銷售額連續第五年實現有機增長。

In-market, Pringles generated strong consumption growth across key markets in the quarter and the full year. And in the U.K., we also delivered rapid growth for Pop-Tarts and Rice Krispies Squares.

在市場上，品客薯片在本季度和全年在主要市場實現了強勁的消費增長。在英國，我們還實現了 Pop-Tarts 和 Rice Krispies Squares 的快速增長。

Turning to our European cereal business and Slide #29, you can see that this business continues to deliver steady growth. On the strength of commercial activities and revenue growth management needed to cover rising costs, this business showed sequential acceleration in its organic net sales growth in each quarter.

轉向我們的歐洲穀物業務和幻燈片 #29，您可以看到該業務繼續穩定增長。憑藉應對成本上升所需的商業活動和收入增長管理，該業務在每個季度的有機淨銷售額增長中均呈現連續加速。

In-market, category growth rates in markets across the region picked up in the fourth quarter, and we have been particularly pleased with accelerated growth and share gains for brands like Rice Krispies in the U.K., Tresor in France and Special K in several markets. So you can see that Kellogg Europe remains in very good condition as we head into 2023.

第四季度，該地區市場的市場類別增長率有所回升，我們對英國的 Rice Krispies、法國的 Tresor 和幾個市場的 Special K 等品牌的加速增長和份額增長感到特別高興。因此，您可以看到，在我們進入 2023 年之際，Kellogg Europe 仍處於非常良好的狀態。

As indicated on Slide #30, we expect to sustain momentum in snacks led by Pringles, but also increasingly accompanied by portable wholesome snacks like Pop-Tarts and Rice Krispies Squares.

如幻燈片 #30 所示，我們預計以品客薯片為首的零食將保持增長勢頭，但也將越來越多地伴隨著 Pop-Tarts 和 Rice Krispies Squares 等便攜式有益健康的零食。

In cereal, we have strong brand plans, including renovation and innovation and a campaign celebrating our 25th year of our Better Days social program in the U.K. We will continue to manage through cost and supply pressures, which are particularly heavy in the first half. And we have an agreement to divest our Russia business, though the deal's timing, approvals and final details are still pending. This business represents a little more than 5% of Kellogg Europe's total sales, so the impact of this divestiture should not be meaningful to adjusted basis results.

在麥片方面，我們有強大的品牌計劃，包括翻新和創新，以及慶祝我們在英國開展 Better Days 社會計劃 25 週年的活動。我們將繼續應對成本和供應壓力，這在上半年尤為沈重。我們還達成了一項剝離俄羅斯業務的協議，但交易的時間、批准和最終細節仍在等待中。該業務佔 Kellogg Europe 總銷售額的 5% 多一點，因此此次資產剝離對調整後的基礎結果的影響應該不大。

Now let's turn to Latin America on Slide #31. As the chart shows, Kellogg Latin America grew net sales and operating profit strongly, both in the fourth quarter and full year. In fact, this region posted strong and accelerating organic net sales growth all year attributed to its brands, its commercial execution and its expansion of route-to-market capabilities as well as its revenue growth management actions and its agility in managing through supply challenges.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 #31 上的拉丁美洲。如圖表所示，家樂氏拉丁美洲公司在第四季度和全年的淨銷售額和營業利潤均實現強勁增長。事實上，該地區全年實現了強勁且加速的有機淨銷售額增長，這歸功於其品牌、商業執行和進入市場能力的擴展，以及收入增長管理行動和應對供應挑戰的敏捷管理。

Our snacks business in Latin America is shown on Slide #32. This business has grown consistently over the years. In 2022, it led the organic net sales growth for the region with year-on-year growth of more than 20% in both the fourth quarter and the full year. The growth was broad-based, finishing the year with the fourth quarter that featured strong double-digit net sales gains across all of our subregions, Mexico, Brazil, Pacific and the Caribbean and Central America region.

我們在拉丁美洲的零食業務顯示在幻燈片 #32 中。多年來，這項業務一直在持續增長。 2022年第四季度和全年同比增長均超過20%，引領該地區有機淨銷售額增長。增長基礎廣泛，第四季度在我們所有的次區域、墨西哥、巴西、太平洋和加勒比以及中美洲區域實現了強勁的兩位數淨銷售額增長。

The strong growth in the quarter and year was driven by price/mix needed to cover soaring cost inflation and adverse transactional currency impact. And while volume did decline, the elasticity was below historical levels. In-market data showed sustained double-digit category growth in the quarter and the full year for our major salty snacks markets, with Pringles gaining share in both of its biggest Latin America markets, which are Mexico and Brazil.

本季度和年度的強勁增長是由價格/組合推動的，以彌補成本飆升和不利的交易貨幣影響。雖然成交量確實有所下降，但彈性低於歷史水平。市場數據顯示，我們的主要鹹味零食市場在本季度和全年持續保持兩位數的品類增長，其中品客薯片在其最大的兩個拉丁美洲市場（墨西哥和巴西）的份額都在增加。

Our cereal business in Latin America also grew net sales organically in the fourth quarter and full year, as indicated on Slide #33. Early in the year, this business felt the impact of supply disruption coming out of North America's fire and strike, particularly in our Caribbean business. But as you can see, once that was behind us, our cereal net sales reaccelerated strongly. In-market, our consumption growth was robust across the region in the quarter and the full year, led by key brands like Frosted Flakes in Mexico and Brazil, Corn Flakes in Brazil and Puerto Rico, and Froot Loops in Colombia.

如幻燈片 #33 所示，我們在拉丁美洲的穀物業務在第四季度和全年的淨銷售額也實現了有機增長。今年年初，該業務受到了北美火災和罷工造成的供應中斷的影響，尤其是在我們的加勒比業務中。但正如您所看到的，一旦我們過去了，我們的穀物淨銷售額就強勁地重新加速。在市場方面，我們在本季度和全年的消費增長強勁，主要品牌包括墨西哥和巴西的 Frosted Flakes、巴西和波多黎各的 Corn Flakes 以及哥倫比亞的 Froot Loops。

So moving on to Slide #34. Latin America, too, is poised for another good year in 2023. We expect to sustain momentum in snacks, led by Pringles, and we expect to continue to grow in cereal. We expect to improve profit margins this year, and work is well under way toward carving out our Caribbean cereal business into the North America Cereal Co. spin-off.

因此，請轉到幻燈片 #34。拉丁美洲也有望在 2023 年迎來又一個好年頭。我們預計以品客薯片為首的零食將保持增長勢頭，我們預計穀物將繼續增長。我們預計今年的利潤率會有所提高，並且正在努力將我們的加勒比穀物業務分拆到北美穀物公司的分拆業務中。

We'll finish up our regional review with AMEA, shown on Slide #35. This region continues to deliver exceptional top line and bottom line growth. Net sales grew organically in the high teens or better all year long. In the fourth quarter, as for the full year, this growth was broad-based with growth across all of our subregions, Africa, Asia, Australia, New Zealand and the Middle East and North Africa. The growth was also strong across all of our category groups, cereal, snacks and noodles and other. Despite enormous cost pressures, the region also delivered double-digit profit growth on a currency-neutral adjusted basis both in the fourth quarter and the full year.

我們將完成與 AMEA 的區域審查，如幻燈片 #35 所示。該地區繼續實現卓越的收入和利潤增長。全年淨銷售額在十幾歲或更高的水平上有機增長。在第四季度，與全年一樣，這種增長具有廣泛的基礎，我們所有次區域、非洲、亞洲、澳大利亞、新西蘭以及中東和北非都有增長。我們所有品類組的增長也很強勁，包括麥片、零食和麵條等。儘管存在巨大的成本壓力，該地區在第四季度和全年仍實現了貨幣中性調整後兩位數的利潤增長。

Snacks in AMEA posted outstanding organic net sales growth all year, as shown on Slide #36. This growth was led by emerging markets ranging from Asia to Africa to the Middle East. And it was led by Pringles, which sustained strong consumption and share growth across key markets, both in the quarter and for the full year.

AMEA 的零食全年實現了出色的有機淨銷售額增長，如幻燈片 #36 所示。這一增長是由亞洲、非洲和中東等新興市場帶動的。它由 Pringles 引領，它在本季度和全年在主要市場保持強勁的消費和份額增長。

In Australia, we also realized good consumption growth in Pop-Tarts and Rice Krispies Treats, both for the quarter and the full year. This bodes well for further international expansion of those brands.

在澳大利亞，我們還實現了本季度和全年 Pop-Tarts 和 Rice Krispies Treats 的良好消費增長。這預示著這些品牌的進一步國際擴張。

Cereal also posted strong organic net sales growth all year, as shown on Slide #37. As with snacks, the growth was led by price/mix, with elasticity impact on volume being lower than usual. And we saw growth across all subregions, both in the fourth quarter and the full year. Growth was most pronounced in Africa and the Middle East, but it also remained solid in Asia and Australia.

如幻燈片 #37 所示，穀物全年也實現了強勁的有機淨銷售額增長。與零食一樣，增長是由價格/組合帶動的，彈性對銷量的影響低於往常。我們在第四季度和全年都看到了所有次區域的增長。非洲和中東的增長最為明顯，但亞洲和澳大利亞也保持穩健。

Overall, for the measured markets of this region, we grew consumption and share in the fourth quarter and the full year. Our most developed market, Australia, posted strong consumption growth in the quarter and year, led by many of our biggest brands, including double-digit gains for Corn Pops, Corn Flakes and Sultana Bran. We also sustained good consumption growth in emerging markets with particular strength in India.

總體而言，對於該地區的衡量市場，我們在第四季度和全年都實現了消費和份額的增長。我們最發達的市場澳大利亞在本季度和年度均實現了強勁的消費增長，這得益於我們許多最大的品牌，包括玉米棒、玉米片和蘇丹娜麩皮的兩位數增長。我們還在新興市場保持了良好的消費增長，尤其是在印度。

And then we come to the largest segment of AMEA, noodles and other, which is shown on Slide #38. In every quarter this year, our AMEA noodles and other business recorded organic net sales growth of well over 20%. In fact, it has delivered double-digit organic growth every year since we consolidated the distributor portion of our West African business in 2018.

然後我們來到 AMEA 的最大部分，麵條和其他，如幻燈片 #38 所示。今年每個季度，我們的 AMEA 麵條和其他業務均錄得超過 20% 的有機淨銷售額增長。事實上，自 2018 年我們整合了西非業務的分銷商部分以來，它每年都實現了兩位數的有機增長。

Turning to Slide #39. We expect another year of strong top and bottom line growth for AMEA in 2023. Macro conditions can be challenging in Africa, and we have an experienced management team and joint venture partner to execute through them, which should enable us to sustain momentum in noodles and other. We should continue to see growth in cereal, led by our markets in Asia. And we believe there is plenty of runway for Pringles to continue its strong growth. Meanwhile, AMEA will be looking to improve its profit margins as well.

轉到幻燈片 #39。我們預計 2023 年 AMEA 的收入和利潤將再次強勁增長。非洲的宏觀條件可能充滿挑戰，我們擁有經驗豐富的管理團隊和合資夥伴來執行它們，這將使我們能夠保持麵條和其他。在亞洲市場的帶動下，我們應該會繼續看到穀物的增長。我們相信品客薯片有足夠的空間繼續強勁增長。同時，AMEA 也將尋求提高其利潤率。

So with that, allow me to briefly summarize with Slide #41. From our results and our outlook, it should be very clear that our Deploy for Growth strategy has us focused on the right priorities and building the right capabilities, and that our portfolio has been shaped decidedly toward growth. And following our planned separation later this year, visibility into the strength and performance of this portfolio will be even clearer. In fact, the vast majority of our portfolio is enjoying very strong momentum right now, as shown on Slide #41, and this is expected to drive above-target growth in net sales and operating profit in 2023.

因此，請允許我用幻燈片 #41 進行簡要總結。從我們的結果和展望來看，很明顯我們的 Deploy for Growth 戰略讓我們專注於正確的優先事項和構建正確的能力，並且我們的產品組合已經明確地朝著增長方向發展。在我們計劃於今年晚些時候分拆之後，該產品組合的實力和績效的可見性將更加清晰。事實上，如幻燈片 #41 所示，我們的絕大多數投資組合目前都在享受非常強勁的勢頭，預計這將推動 2023 年淨銷售額和營業利潤實現高於目標的增長。

I want to thank our talented and dedicated Kellogg employees for making sure that nothing, not unusual economic conditions, not declining financial markets and pension accounting, not the preparation of an historical spin-off, will distract us from continuing to deliver for our stakeholders.

我要感謝我們才華橫溢、敬業的 Kellogg 員工，他們確保沒有任何事情，無論是異常的經濟狀況、金融市場和養老金會計的衰退，還是歷史性分拆的準備，都會分散我們繼續為利益相關者提供服務的注意力。

And with that, we'll open up the line for your questions.

這樣，我們將為您的問題開通熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from Jason English of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

[Lots of] question is still on the table. Amit, maybe we can start real quick with you, a housekeeping. We all have our estimates out here, but based on current spot rates, where do you see FX coming in, in terms of impact to top and bottom line?

[很多] 問題仍然擺在桌面上。阿米特，也許我們可以和你一起開始真正的清潔工作。我們在這裡都有我們的估計，但根據當前的即期匯率，您認為外匯對收入和利潤的影響在哪裡？

Yes. I think, Jason, just looking at the current rates, we'd say probably 1% to 2% impact on EPS and OP. Maybe on sales, around 3%. So that's kind of the outlook if you look at where the rates are today.

是的。我認為，Jason，只要看看目前的利率，我們就會說對 EPS 和 OP 的影響可能為 1% 到 2%。也許在銷售方面，大約 3%。所以如果你看看今天的利率，這就是前景。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Steve, you mentioned that Europe is finishing strong and carrying good momentum in the year, but it sure doesn't look like that from a bottom line perspective. I mean the margins are kind of falling off, and falling off fast as we exit the year, right? And I think you mentioned that the pressure is going to carry into next year. I missed part of it, though. I heard you say like higher marketing. Can you unpack that a little bit more for us? What's driving the substantial step down in profitability? And also touch on -- I mean we know you were probably through price negotiation periods right now. Give us an update on where status sits on negotiating price in that market.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，史蒂夫，你提到歐洲今年表現強勁，勢頭良好，但從底線的角度來看，情況肯定並非如此。我的意思是利潤率有點下降，並且隨著我們結束這一年而快速下降，對嗎？我想你提到過壓力將持續到明年。不過，我錯過了其中的一部分。我聽說你說喜歡更高的營銷。你能為我們再解壓一下嗎？是什麼導致盈利能力大幅下降？還要談談——我的意思是我們知道你現在可能正在通過價格談判期。向我們提供有關該市場談判價格的最新情況。

Yes. Sure, Jason. In Europe, it's -- essentially, we're catching up, right? The inflation came fast and furious, and our ability to catch up to it was impacted in the third and fourth quarter. We also had, obviously, the Russia impact in the -- primarily, in the third quarter. Higher A&P continue to bolster our top line, which we're committed to doing. And so we're catching up.

是的。當然，傑森。在歐洲，它 - 本質上，我們正在迎頭趕上，對吧？通貨膨脹來得又快又猛，我們趕上它的能力在第三和第四季度受到了影響。顯然，我們在 - 主要是在第三季度也有俄羅斯的影響。更高的 A&P 繼續支持我們的收入，我們致力於這樣做。所以我們正在迎頭趕上。

It's still going to be a bit of a pressure in the first half, as we mentioned, but our underlying business is very, very solid. And our ability to get price -- earn price has also been solid. It's never easy anywhere, but the European dynamics can be challenging, but we've been making our way through it. And so we have good confidence in the underlying momentum of the business. It's really just -- it took a little time to catch up.

正如我們所提到的，上半年仍然會有一些壓力，但我們的基礎業務非常非常穩固。我們獲得價格的能力——賺取價格也很穩固。任何地方都不容易，但歐洲的動態可能具有挑戰性，但我們一直在努力克服它。因此，我們對業務的潛在勢頭充滿信心。這真的只是 - 花了一點時間才趕上來。

Okay. And status on the price negotiations?

好的。以及價格談判的現狀？

Yes. We're in reasonable shape right now, Jason. We don't like to talk too much about individual negotiations with our customers. They're doing everything that they always do, which is to protect the consumer. We want to protect the consumer as well, be as affordable as possible, but we need to maintain our margins. And we're having those adult conversations, and they're proceeding constructively.

是的。我們現在的狀態還不錯，傑森。我們不喜歡過多談論與客戶的個別談判。他們正在做他們一直做的一切，這是為了保護消費者。我們也想保護消費者，盡可能讓消費者負擔得起，但我們需要保持利潤。我們正在進行那些成人對話，他們正在建設性地進行。

Our next question for today comes from Alexia Howard of Sanford Bernstein.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Sanford Bernstein 的 Alexia Howard。

Great. Can we ask about the volume situation in the U.S., particularly as we rolled into 2023? I'm looking at the Nielsen data that came out yesterday, and it looked as though, frankly, there's a lot of companies that was a bit of a step back. So 2 questions. One, is there anything that you're seeing from the consumer that's shifting? Or is it just tough compares from Omicron last year?

偉大的。我們能否詢問美國的銷量情況，尤其是在我們進入 2023 年之際？我正在查看昨天發布的尼爾森數據，坦率地說，看起來好像有很多公司有點後退了一步。所以2個問題。第一，你從消費者那裡看到了什麼正在發生變化嗎？還是與去年的 Omicron 相比只是艱難？

And then secondly, as I look at the U.S. cereal business on a 2-year basis, looks like the volumes are still down mid-teens. So are we -- I know that right now, it's looking good year-on-year, but what does that imply for the ongoing price elasticity in that business as we lap the fire and strike from last year?

其次，當我從 2 年的基礎上看美國穀物業務時，看起來銷量仍然下降了 15% 左右。我們也是——我知道現在，它與去年同期相比看起來不錯，但這對我們從去年開始大火和罷工時該行業持續的價格彈性意味著什麼？

Yes, Alexia. So for us in North America in the fourth quarter, volume was up. And obviously, overall revenue was up nicely. We did have a fairly easy comparison, particularly in North American cereal because of the fire and strike. On a 2-year basis, though, we -- well, first of all, the trajectory of our North American cereal business is very, very solid, and we're very, very pleased with it. On a 2-year basis, NSV is also up. I'm not sure what you're looking at, but it is up. Volume is down slightly as the category is. But our NSV on a 2-year basis and a 1-year basis is up in cereal. And we're very confident about the plans in 2023 that we have in place.

是的，亞歷克西婭。因此，第四季度我們在北美的銷量有所上升。顯然，整體收入增長良好。我們確實進行了相當簡單的比較，尤其是在發生火災和罷工的北美穀物中。不過，在 2 年的基礎上，我們 - 首先，我們北美穀物業務的軌跡非常非常穩固，我們對此非常非常滿意。在 2 年的基礎上，NSV 也在上升。我不確定你在看什麼，但它已經起來了。與類別一樣，銷量略有下降。但是我們在 2 年期和 1 年期基礎上的 NSV 在穀物中有所增加。我們對 2023 年的計劃非常有信心。

We're confident about the distribution that we've been able to gain. We're confident about our shelf sets. Our consumer promotions are, as I said, really back on track. You can see Jalen Hurts and Tony the Tiger on television right now as a matter of fact, which is lucky for us that Jalen's in the Super Bowl. So feeling very good about our North American cereal recovery on a 1-year and 2-year basis.

我們對我們能夠獲得的分佈充滿信心。我們對我們的貨架套裝充滿信心。正如我所說，我們的消費者促銷活動真的回到了正軌。事實上，你現在可以在電視上看到 Jalen Hurts 和 Tony the Tiger，這對我們來說是幸運的，Jalen 在超級碗中。因此，我們對北美穀物在 1 年和 2 年的複蘇感到非常滿意。

And then I think just to build on that from a guidance standpoint, we have incorporated rising elasticity. So that's built into our guidance for '23.

然後我認為，從指導的角度來看，我們已經納入了不斷上升的彈性。因此，這已納入我們 23 年的指南中。

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

Just wanted to follow up on the volume piece at a little bit higher level, contrasting the declines you've had globally throughout the year with the relatively stronger performance in North America, excluding the 1Q hit from cereal obviously, but can you just unpack a little bit of what you're seeing differently? And is it stimulus and sort of savings drawdown that supported volumes in the U.S. that now maybe is rolling over? Just maybe inform how you think about the differences in the U.S. consumer versus what you're seeing around the world.

只是想在更高的水平上跟進銷量，將你全年在全球範圍內的下降與北美相對強勁的表現進行對比，顯然不包括穀物對第一季度的衝擊，但你能打開包裝嗎？你看到的東西有一點不同嗎？是刺激措施和某種形式的儲蓄縮減支撐了美國的交易量，現在可能正在滾動嗎？也許可以告知您如何看待美國消費者與您在世界各地看到的差異。

Yes. So it's different everywhere around the world. The U.S. has been strong. It's been relatively inelastic, particularly in our categories. So we've definitely benefited from that. There's no question that the U.S. balance sheet, consumer balance sheet still remains stronger than it was prepandemic, although continues to erode over time. The employment situation, as you know, in the U.S. is still very strong. So overall, the consumer in the U.S. is in a good place. And when you look at the categories that we play in, it remains very strong, right? So they are cutting out discretionary items, which, we all know, high-ticket items are under a lot of pressure. Our categories are doing very well.

是的。所以世界各地都不一樣。美國一直很強大。它相對缺乏彈性，特別是在我們的類別中。所以我們肯定從中受益。毫無疑問，美國的資產負債表、消費者資產負債表仍然比大流行前更強勁，儘管隨著時間的推移繼續受到侵蝕。如您所知，美國的就業形勢仍然非常強勁。總的來說，美國的消費者處境良好。當您查看我們參與的類別時，它仍然非常強大，對嗎？因此，他們正在削減可自由支配的項目，眾所周知，高價項目承受著很大的壓力。我們的類別做得很好。

And if you look at the emerging markets, the same could be said, the consumer is very strong, surprisingly resilient in virtually all of our emerging markets, which has been very positive for our results from a category standpoint. And then we're doing well inside those categories.

如果你看看新興市場，也可以這麼說，消費者非常強大，幾乎在我們所有的新興市場中都具有驚人的彈性，從類別的角度來看，這對我們的結果非常積極。然後我們在這些類別中做得很好。

Europe is where you see -- if you go back a couple of quarters ago, we did indicate that we were seeing the beginning of elasticities returning, particularly in the cereal business, and we're seeing a little bit more of that. So the European consumer, I would say, is probably under more pressure than just about anywhere else in the world. And you see that, obviously, in the discretionary categories, and you're starting to see a little bit more of a normal return to elasticities in the European consumer. Still not back to prepandemic levels or described as normal levels, but higher than it is in the rest of the world.

歐洲是你看到的地方——如果你回到幾個季度前，我們確實表明我們看到彈性開始回歸，特別是在穀物業務中，而且我們看到的更多一點。因此，我想說，歐洲消費者可能比世界上任何其他地方都承受著更大的壓力。很明顯，在可自由支配的類別中，你會看到這一點，你開始看到歐洲消費者彈性的正常回歸。仍未回到大流行前的水平或被描述為正常水平，但高於世界其他地區。

Okay. That's helpful color. And can I just squeeze in a housekeeping follow-up on the pensions? That's a big below-the-line item for you this year, obviously, but is there any meaningful split between cereal and the legacy, the rest of the company? Just trying to understand when that happens, does one side of the business or the other have a disproportionate impact from that?

好的。這是有用的顏色。我可以擠進養老金的後續工作嗎？很明顯，這對你來說是今年的一個很大的線下項目，但麥片和公司其他部門之間是否有任何有意義的劃分？只是想了解這種情況何時發生，業務的一方或另一方是否會因此產生不成比例的影響？

No. I think it's not disproportionate. It's broadly in line with the size of the business.

不，我認為這並不過分。它與業務規模大致相符。

Our next question comes from Rob Dickerson of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Rob Dickerson。

I guess just kind of first question, housekeeping, is when should we expect to get a little bit more information on the spin? And then the second question, simplistically, is just around cash, CapEx side. I don't know if I heard it, but in terms of the $300 million from the upfront charges in CapEx of the spin, maybe just provide a little clarity as to kind of where -- what's driving that?

我想第一個問題，管家，我們什麼時候應該期望獲得更多關於旋轉的信息？然後第二個問題，簡單地說，就是關於現金，資本支出方面。我不知道我是否聽到了，但就分拆的資本支出中的 3 億美元前期費用而言，也許只是提供了一點清晰度——是什麼驅動了它？

Yes. So I think we are on track to execute the spin towards the end of the year. So leading up to that, we'll be providing all the information as well as having the Investor Days as you'd expect. So towards the end of the year is what we're working towards. I think the $300 million, it's a combination of onetime costs related to executing the transaction. So consultants -- I think we're working very closely with some blue-chip advisers on program management, ensuring that we have a comprehensive program to manage the change and develop a comprehensive plan of action. I think it includes your typical banker loyal fees as well. As well as some capital expenditure to realign the supply chains, to get IT systems up and running for the new cereal company.

是的。因此，我認為我們有望在年底前執行調整。因此，在此之前，我們將提供所有信息以及您所期望的投資者日。所以到今年年底是我們正在努力的目標。我認為這 3 億美元是與執行交易相關的一次性成本的組合。所以顧問——我認為我們正在與一些藍籌顧問在項目管理方面密切合作，確保我們有一個全面的項目來管理變革並製定一個全面的行動計劃。我認為它也包括典型的銀行家忠誠度費用。以及一些用於重新調整供應鏈、為新穀物公司啟動和運行 IT 系統的資本支出。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

I just wanted to ask about your guidance for a -- I think the word was stabilizing gross margin this year. Just curious, does stabilizing mean down versus '22 but a maybe decelerating rate of decline? And I'm just curious, rather, what it implies for SG&A either as a percentage of sales or on a dollar basis. It would seem to imply that both would have to come down a little bit. But just curious what your thoughts on there.

我只是想問問你的指導——我認為這個詞今年穩定了毛利率。只是好奇，穩定是否意味著與 22 年相比下降，但下降速度可能會放緩？我只是好奇，相反，它對 SG&A 意味著什麼，無論是佔銷售額的百分比還是按美元計算。這似乎意味著兩者都必須下降一點。但只是好奇你在那裡的想法。

I think on a full year basis, it will be flat to slightly up on gross margins, and I think it'll improve progressively as we go through the year. So I think that's kind of the range where we are on gross margin.

我認為在全年的基礎上，毛利率將持平或略有上升，而且我認為隨著這一年的推移，它會逐步改善。所以我認為這就是我們毛利率的範圍。

And then I think from a -- and I think just to put some goals in gross margin, obviously, from a positive, we'd been lapping the fire and the strike. We do expect bottlenecks and shortages to moderate as we go through the year. We are starting to see that in -- as well. So that, I think, would be a positive tailwind from a gross margin standpoint.

然後我認為 - 我認為只是為了將一些目標放在毛利率中，顯然，從積極的角度來看，我們一直在大火和罷工。我們確實預計在這一年中瓶頸和短缺會有所緩和。我們也開始看到這一點。因此，我認為，從毛利率的角度來看，這將是一個積極的順風。

I think from an input cost standpoint, we expect mid-teens inflation, and that's what our guidance incorporates. So it's still elevated. It's moderated from what we saw in 2022, but still elevated. And I think we continue to see input cost inflation in oils, in corn, in wheat, rice, potatoes. So that's been built in. And I think from a phasing standpoint, we'd expect gradual improvement in the year-on-year change of gross profit margin as the year progresses.

我認為，從投入成本的角度來看，我們預計通脹將達到 15% 以上，而這正是我們的指導意見所包含的內容。所以還是有提升的。它比我們在 2022 年看到的有所緩和，但仍然有所上升。我認為我們繼續看到石油、玉米、小麥、大米和土豆的投入成本上漲。所以這是內置的。我認為，從分階段的角度來看，我們預計隨著時間的推移，毛利率的同比變化會逐漸改善。

And then I think to your question on SG&A -- now I think on your question on SG&A, I think we'd expect an increase in overheads, probably in line with inflation, I think, as normal activity continues to restore. And then from a brand building standpoint, we'd expect an increase as we -- as supply is restored, full year of brand building through the year.

然後我想你關於 SG&A 的問題——現在我想關於你關於 SG&A 的問題，我認為我們預計管理費用會增加，我認為可能與通貨膨脹一致，因為正常活動繼續恢復。然後從品牌建設的角度來看，我們預計隨著供應的恢復，全年的品牌建設會有所增加。

Our next question comes from Andrew Lazar from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

Steve, there's a concern, I think, among investors for the group as a whole, right, that as supply constraints ease and the benefit from pricing wanes, food companies will somehow choose to sort of ramp promotional spending to maybe more irrational levels to drive volume. And I guess this concern seems particularly acute, I think, in the ready-to-eat cereal space, partly because Kellogg is obviously heading towards a split of the business. And I'm just curious how you'd kind of respond to that concern and get a sense for what your plans are in terms of in-market sort of activity as you go through the year.

史蒂夫，我認為整個集團的投資者都擔心，隨著供應限制的緩解和定價帶來的好處減弱，食品公司將以某種方式選擇將促銷支出增加到可能更不合理的水平，以推動體積。我想這種擔憂在即食穀物領域似乎尤為嚴重，部分原因是家樂氏顯然正朝著業務拆分的方向發展。我只是很好奇你會如何回應這種擔憂，並了解你一年中在市場活動方面的計劃。

Yes, Andrew, we really don't have that concern. We haven't seen anything that would point to an irrational environment on the horizon. And as our supply has improved, we've been gradually restoring merchandising activity, which is an effective complement to our brand building, always has been. And so it's not a bad thing. It's not a bad thing to -- obviously, drive displays, as you well know, drive merchandising activity.

是的，安德魯，我們真的沒有那個顧慮。我們還沒有看到任何跡象表明地平線上的非理性環境。隨著我們供應的改善，我們一直在逐步恢復商品銷售活動，這是對我們品牌建設的有效補充，一直以來都是如此。所以這不是一件壞事。這不是一件壞事 - 顯然，驅動顯示，正如你所知道的那樣，驅動商品銷售活動。

And from a supply standpoint, it's not as if there's a lot of excess capacity in our categories for us, certainly, and I think even for some of our competitors. So when you look at that, when you look at the supply availability, when you look at the demand creation, which is out there, and available, I see a very rational environment on the horizon.

從供應的角度來看，我們的類別中似乎並沒有很多產能過剩，當然，我認為甚至對於我們的一些競爭對手也是如此。因此，當您查看這一點時，當您查看供應可用性時，當您查看可用的需求創建時，我看到地平線上出現了一個非常合理的環境。

Our next question for today comes from Robert Moskow from Credit Suisse.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Robert Moskow。

Amit, I was hoping for a little more color on the phasing for your operating profit growth by quarter. Like first quarter, for example, I think you have an easy comparison on gross profit dollars, but then you're going to increase SG&A investment. So do you think first quarter profit growth is higher than your annual average? Or is it not really much different?

阿米特，我希望在分階段為您的營業利潤增長提供更多色彩。例如，就像第一季度一樣，我認為您可以輕鬆比較毛利潤美元，但隨後您將增加 SG&A 投資。那麼您認為第一季度的利潤增長是否高於您的年度平均水平？還是真的沒有太大區別？

Yes. I think certainly, from a gross margin standpoint, as I mentioned, right, we'd be lapping the fire and strike in quarter 1, but I think -- on the brand building in particular, right? If you recall, last year in quarter 1 and quarter 2, right, we had pulled back as we were emerging from the strike. So you're going to have that negative lap in quarter 1 and into quarter 2 as well. So it's kind of -- those are the puts and calls from an operating profit phasing standpoint.

是的。我認為當然，從毛利率的角度來看，正如我提到的那樣，我們將在第一季度大放異彩，但我認為 - 特別是在品牌建設方面，對吧？如果你還記得的話，去年第一季度和第二季度，我們在罷工後撤退了。所以你將在第 1 季度和第 2 季度出現負圈。所以它有點——從營業利潤階段的角度來看，這些是看跌期權和看漲期權。

Okay. A quick follow-up. Can you give a little more color on what your process was for pursuing the spin-off of Morningstar? Did you also seek a buyer in this process? And what do you think the results will be like in 2023? Can it improve off of 2022 or expect a weak year?

好的。快速跟進。你能否更詳細地說明你追求晨星分拆的過程是什麼？在這個過程中你也找過買家嗎？您認為 2023 年的結果會怎樣？它會在 2022 年有所改善還是預計會出現疲軟的一年？

Yes, Rob, I would say definitely will improve in 2023. That is our plan. And the process was very thorough. We said from the beginning, we were going to pursue a spin but would look at other strategic alternatives. We did that.

是的，Rob，我會說 2023 年肯定會有所改善。那是我們的計劃。而且這個過程非常徹底。我們從一開始就說過，我們將進行一次調整，但會考慮其他戰略選擇。我們做到了。

And if you recall, when we began this process, valuations for peer companies were stratospheric compared to where they are today. They've come down quite substantially. So the thesis when we started the process was to truly unlock shareholder value. If we could attract the same types of multiples in the public market, we should pursue that. The environment has clearly changed.

如果你還記得，當我們開始這個過程時，與今天相比，同行公司的估值是非常高的。他們已經大幅下降。因此，我們開始這個過程時的主題是真正釋放股東價值。如果我們能夠在公開市場上吸引相同類型的倍數，我們就應該追求它。環境明顯變了。

And when we look at what's on the horizon for this category, we see an imminent shakeout coming. It's happening already. And there'll be a couple of players left standing, and Morningstar Farms still has some of the highest household penetration, highest name recognition, fantastic foods, strong in the freezer space where the consumer is migrating back to, and profitable, unlike many of the peers. So as we step back and look at it, we are the best parent for Morningstar Farms. And when we shared with our people this morning that we were keeping the business, there was elation.

當我們審視這一類別即將發生的事情時，我們看到一場即將到來的洗牌。它已經發生了。並且會有幾個玩家留下來，Morningstar Farms 仍然擁有一些最高的家庭滲透率，最高的知名度，美味的食物，在消費者遷移回的冷凍空間中表現強勁，並且盈利，這與許多同齡人。因此，當我們退後一步來看時，我們是 Morningstar Farms 的最佳父母。今天早上，當我們與員工分享我們保留了業務時，大家都很高興。

And so there's a lot of momentum underlying in our people, in their plans, and we're optimistic for 2023. And more importantly, we're optimistic beyond that because when the shakeout continues, there'll be a few left standing. And the underlying consumer drivers around health and wellness, around environmental concerns, around moving away from animal proteins, all still remain. And Morningstar Farms has one of the cleanest labels out there. And so there's a lot going for Morningstar Farms, and we're excited to keep it.

因此，在我們的員工和他們的計劃中有很多潛在的動力，我們對 2023 年持樂觀態度。更重要的是，我們對此持樂觀態度，因為當重組繼續進行時，會有一些人保持原狀。圍繞健康和保健、環境問題、遠離動物蛋白的潛在消費者驅動因素仍然存在。 Morningstar Farms 擁有最乾淨的標籤之一。因此，Morningstar Farms 有很多發展前景，我們很高興能保留它。

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Steve, maybe just to take a step back on the snacking business. And obviously, there's a lot of focus on getting these businesses separated. But as we look forward, like how do you -- how opportunistic or how aggressive can you be in M&A? There's a lot of opportunities for acquisitions in snacking. It's definitely proven to be a very resilient category through everything we've been through the last couple of years. So just trying to get a sense of how quickly you might be able to begin adding to the portfolio? Or it's not really part of what you think the strategy will be going forward?

史蒂夫，也許只是為了在零食業務上退後一步。顯然，人們非常關注將這些業務分開。但是當我們展望未來時，就像你如何 - 你在併購中的機會主義或進取心如何？收購零食的機會很多。通過過去幾年我們經歷的一切，它絕對被證明是一個非常有彈性的類別。所以只是想了解一下您可以多快開始添加到投資組合中？或者它並不是您認為未來戰略的一部分？

Yes. Thanks, Bryan. I think it will be part of the strategy. Obviously, we're going to execute the spin. That's priority #1. And we'll execute the spin, and we'll have a global snacking company with a very strong balance sheet, and cereal company as well. And so as we look for opportunities, we'll look for organic and inorganic opportunities. And our organic opportunities, as you can see, with Pringles remain exceptional, with Cheez-It, Rice Krispies Treats, remain exceptional. Cheez-It is only now really leaving the United States and expanding overseas in Canada, Brazil, and soon, other geographies as well.

是的。謝謝，布萊恩。我認為這將是戰略的一部分。顯然，我們要執行旋轉。這是優先事項#1。我們將執行旋轉，我們將擁有一家資產負債表非常強大的全球零食公司，以及穀物公司。因此，當我們尋找機會時，我們將尋找有機和無機機會。正如您所看到的，我們的有機機會仍然非常出色，品客薯片和 Cheez-It 脆米脆餅仍然非常出色。 Cheez-It 直到現在才真正離開美國，並在加拿大、巴西和其他地區進行海外擴張。

So on balance, we'll look at those opportunities for continued organic growth, but where we can supplement our portfolio with additions, we'll definitely look to that because we do have great capabilities in snacking, great route-to-market and bolt-ons or bigger will be part of our considerations going forward.

因此，總的來說，我們會尋找持續有機增長的機會，但在我們可以通過添加來補充我們的產品組合的地方，我們肯定會關注這一點，因為我們在零食、上市途徑和螺栓方面確實擁有強大的能力-ons 或更大將是我們未來考慮的一部分。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, just as we're thinking about the split going forward, how dependent -- like is there any risk that if the markets really melt down or valuations change or -- just what's the risk that you'd decide to pull it? Or is there -- like what conditions would create a scenario where you delay it or pull it?

好的。然後作為後續行動，就像我們正在考慮未來的分裂一樣，如何依賴 - 比如是否存在任何風險，如果市場真的崩潰或估值發生變化，或者 - 你的風險是什麼？ d 決定拉它？還是有——比如什麼條件會造成你延遲或取消它的場景？

Well, Bryan, you never say never, obviously, right? But we are very, very confident that there's no condition by which we won't execute the spin by the end of this year. It's a tax-free spin-off, a dividend to our shareholders really. And so we don't have to rely on the debt markets. We don't have to rely on IPO markets, equity markets. It's a dividend to our shareowners. And nothing is without risk, but we have a very high degree of confidence, and we absolutely plan on executing this by the end of the year.

好吧，布萊恩，你永遠不會說永遠，很明顯，對吧？但我們非常非常有信心，在今年年底之前，我們不會有任何條件不執行旋轉。這是一項免稅的分拆，實際上是對我們股東的紅利。所以我們不必依賴債務市場。我們不必依賴 IPO 市場、股票市場。這是我們股東的紅利。沒有什麼是沒有風險的，但我們有很高的信心，我們絕對計劃在今年年底前完成這項工作。

Our next question comes from Eric Larson of Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Eric Larson。

Congratulations on a good year. So my question is really this, Europe seems to be the one area that might have a little more uncertainty for the kind of the forward look, probably a pretty difficult first half comparison, maybe better second half. Do you expect Europe to make a good positive contribution this year to the year's total?

祝賀你度過了一個美好的一年。所以我的問題真的是這樣，歐洲似乎是一個在前瞻性方面可能有更多不確定性的地區，可能是一個相當困難的上半年比較，也許下半年更好。您預計歐洲今年會對今年的總量做出積極的貢獻嗎？

And are there any special onetime events that you had last year, either as a headwind or a tailwind, such as promotional events where Pringles has been very strong in things like soccer events, et cetera? Is there -- can you kind of peel back an onion a little bit for us on kind of the forward 12-month outlook for Europe?

去年有沒有什麼特殊的一次性事件，無論是逆風還是順風，比如品客薯片在足球賽事等方面表現非常出色的促銷活動？有沒有 - 你能為我們稍微談談歐洲未來 12 個月的前景嗎？

Yes, Eric, thanks for the question. I'd say there's nothing unusual that we're lapping aside from an easier comp when we get to the Russian comparisons is one. And the first half is really the catch-up -- pricing catching up to costs, and we're very confident that we're going to do that. The underlying brand strength remains very strong. Europe has just completed their fifth year of growth. And so it's been a long story of underlying momentum driven by great execution on Pringles. We've got a great plan for Pringles, again, based on a number of different activities. Strong consumer engagement, strong customer engagement with Pringles.

是的，埃里克，謝謝你的提問。我想說的是，當我們與俄羅斯進行比較時，我們從一個更容易的比賽中脫穎而出並沒有什麼不尋常的。上半年真的是追趕——定價趕上成本，我們非常有信心我們會做到這一點。潛在的品牌實力仍然非常強大。歐洲剛剛完成了第五個年頭的增長。因此，由品客薯片的出色執行力驅動的潛在動力由來已久。基於許多不同的活動，我們再次為品客薯片製定了一個很棒的計劃。強大的消費者參與度，強大的客戶參與品客薯片。

Our cereal brands remain strong. And one of the real surprises has been our portable wholesome snacks has really returned to growth and is doing quite well. And so it's a first half, second half, but it's really more in terms of catching up, which we're in process of doing. And we can see it. We can see it in our forecast that it's happening, and it gives us a great deal of confidence that there'll be a sixth year of growth in Europe. You want to add anything, Amit?

我們的穀物品牌依然強勁。真正的驚喜之一是我們的便攜式健康零食真的恢復了增長，而且做得很好。所以這是上半場，下半場，但實際上更多的是追趕，我們正在做的事情。我們可以看到它。我們可以在我們的預測中看到它正在發生，這讓我們非常有信心歐洲將連續第六年實現增長。你想添加什麼嗎，阿米特？

No. I think just building on the phasing comment. I think we'd be expecting to catch up on the pricing at an increasing rate through the first half. And then I think in the second half, the combination of the pricing having been caught up as well as easier comp and, hopefully, moderating inflation, I think, would lead to higher growth -- OP growth in the -- operating profit growth in the second half.

不，我認為只是建立在分階段評論的基礎上。我認為我們期望在上半年以更快的速度趕上定價。然後我認為在下半年，定價的結合以及更容易的競爭以及我認為希望緩和的通貨膨脹將導致更高的增長 - OP 增長 - 營業利潤增長下半場。

One quick follow-up. Given that your pension income is really kind of a noncash event, but I think it gets priced and looked at as a cash event, have you ever considered reporting your EPS on a cash EPS basis as opposed to the way you report it now?

一個快速跟進。鑑於您的養老金收入實際上是一種非現金事件，但我認為它被定價並被視為現金事件，您是否考慮過以現金 EPS 為基礎報告您的 EPS，而不是現在的報告方式？

No, we haven't, but we'll certainly study that.

不，我們沒有，但我們一定會研究它。

Our next question for today comes from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

我們今天的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Maybe to start, just some follow-up on a couple of topics that came up earlier. Just -- the first one on the cash cost, the CapEx associated, the $300 million. Is that -- is there any kind of timing element on that? Does that -- has that come pretty equally throughout the year? Does it build as we get closer to the actual events?

也許首先，只是對之前提出的幾個主題進行一些跟進。只是 - 第一個現金成本，相關的資本支出，3 億美元。那是——這上面有任何類型的時間元素嗎？這是否 - 全年都相當平均嗎？它會隨著我們接近實際事件而建立嗎？

And on pricing, I'm sure there's incremental pricing in '23 in the emerging markets. It sounds like there's pricing to come in Europe. My question is, is there any kind of material magnitude of pricing anticipated in the U.S.? And if so, could you give us a little sense of the magnitude there?

在定價方面，我確信新興市場在 23 年會出現增量定價。聽起來歐洲要定價了。我的問題是，美國是否有預期的定價的實質性幅度？如果是這樣，你能告訴我們那裡的規模嗎？

I'll start with the pricing and let Amit take the CapEx. I'll start with what we always talk about in terms of we're not going to get into forward-looking pricing and customer negotiations and things of that nature, but we always start with the first line of defense against rising costs is productivity. And so this is -- the receding of bottlenecks and shortages have given us the opportunity to really put together more historic productivity plans because all that noise is starting to recede. And so we will have an aggressive productivity plan. But as Amit talked about, our intention is to stabilize margins to slightly grow them. So that's going to require revenue growth management throughout the year, and that'll look different throughout the year, depending on what geography it is. But that is our intention.

我將從定價開始，讓 Amit 承擔資本支出。我將從我們經常談論的話題開始，即我們不會進行前瞻性定價和客戶談判以及類似性質的事情，但我們總是從抵禦成本上升的第一道防線開始，那就是生產力。所以這就是 - 瓶頸和短缺的消退讓我們有機會真正制定更具歷史意義的生產力計劃，因為所有噪音都開始消退。因此，我們將有一個積極的生產力計劃。但正如 Amit 所說，我們的目的是穩定利潤率，使其略有增長。因此，這將需要全年進行收入增長管理，並且全年看起來會有所不同，具體取決於地理位置。但這是我們的意圖。

And I think in terms of the onetime costs and the phasing through the year, I mean, we're right in the middle of the program. And so I think you could expect it to be spent through the year. So there's nothing particular to call out in that.

我認為就一次性成本和全年分階段而言，我的意思是，我們正處於該計劃的中間。所以我認為你可以期待它會用完一年。因此，沒有什麼特別值得一提的。

Okay. Yes. Okay. Great. And I guess the other question is -- and I appreciate that a lot more will be forthcoming on this. But just in terms of thinking about the North America Cereal Co. and its anticipated prospects over the course of '23 relative to the total enterprise and the guidance you gave this morning, is there a way to frame the expectations for organic growth and operating profit growth of that North America Cereal portion of the business relative to the total company guidance you gave today?

好的。是的。好的。偉大的。我想另一個問題是——我很欣賞在這方面將會有更多的討論。但是，就北美穀物公司及其在 23 年相對於整個企業的預期前景以及您今天上午給出的指導而言，是否有一種方法可以構建對有機增長和營業利潤的預期北美穀物業務相對於您今天給出的公司總指導的增長情況？

Yes. We don't go into that category level, but you can look at the momentum that we have. And the comments I made earlier, we plan on continuing that momentum, getting back TDPs that were lost, that's been very successful up to this point and to continue to grow our gross margin. We came to a low point, obviously, because of the fire and strike. So we're coming off that. But the underlying momentum, the trajectory of the business, we feel very good about, and we aim to continue that trajectory.

是的。我們不進入那個類別級別，但你可以看看我們的勢頭。而我之前發表的評論，我們計劃繼續保持這種勢頭，收回丟失的 TDP，到目前為止，這一直非常成功，並繼續增加我們的毛利率。顯然，由於火災和罷工，我們陷入了低谷。所以我們要結束了。但潛在的動力，業務的軌跡，我們感覺非常好，我們的目標是繼續保持這一軌跡。

Operator, we are at 10:30, so we are out of time. But everybody, thank you for your interest in Kellogg. And please give us a call if you have any follow-up questions.

接線員，我們現在是 10:30，所以我們沒時間了。但各位，感謝您對凱洛格的興趣。如果您有任何後續問題，請給我們打電話。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your line.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路。