家樂氏 (K) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Kellogg Company's Fourth Quarter '21 Earnings Call. My name is Daisy, and I'll be the operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎來到家樂氏公司的 21 年第四季度財報電話會議。我叫黛西，我將擔任今天電話的接線員。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I will turn the call over to John Renwick, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning for Kellogg Company. Mr. Renwick, you may now begin your conference call.

此時，我將把電話轉給 Kellogg Company 投資者關係和企業規劃副總裁 John Renwick。 Renwick 先生，您現在可以開始電話會議了。

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for a review of our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results as well as comments regarding our outlook for 2022. I'm joined this morning by Steve Cahillane, our Chairman and CEO; and Amit Banati, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們 2021 年第四季度和全年的業績，並就我們的 2022 年展望發表評論。今天上午，我們的董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫·卡希蘭 (Steve Cahillane) 加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Amit Banati。

Slide #3 shows our forward-looking statements disclaimer. As you are aware, certain statements made today, such as projections for Kellogg Company's future performance, are forward-looking statements. Actual results could be materially different from those projected. For further information concerning factors that could cause these results to differ, please refer to the third slide of this presentation as well as to our public SEC filings. This is of particular note during the current COVID-19 pandemic and supply and labor disruptions, when the length and severity of these issues and resultant economic and business impacts are so difficult to predict.

幻燈片 #3 顯示了我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。如您所知，今天做出的某些陳述，例如對 Kellogg 公司未來業績的預測，屬於前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與預測結果大不相同。有關可能導致這些結果不同的因素的更多信息，請參閱本演示文稿的第三張幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件。在當前的 COVID-19 大流行以及供應和勞動力中斷期間，這一點尤其值得注意，因為這些問題的持續時間和嚴重程度以及由此產生的經濟和商業影響是如此難以預測。

A recording of today's webcast and supporting documents will be archived for at least 90 days on the Investor page of kelloggcompany.com.

今天的網絡直播和支持文件的錄音將在 kelloggcompany.com 的投資者頁面上存檔至少 90 天。

As always, when referring to our results and outlook, unless otherwise noted, we will be referring to them on an organic basis for net sales and on a currency-neutral adjusted basis for operating profit and earnings per share.

與往常一樣，在提及我們的業績和展望時，除非另有說明，否則我們將在淨銷售額的有機基礎上以及在營業利潤和每股收益的貨幣中性調整基礎上提及它們。

And now I'll turn it over to Steve.

現在我將把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. I think we can all agree that 2021 was yet another unprecedented year. In addition to lapping an unusually strong 2020, we managed through an operating environment that was more challenging than any other that we can remember.

謝謝，約翰，大家早上好。我想我們都同意，2021 年又是前所未有的一年。除了度過異常強勁的 2020 年之外，我們還度過了一個比我們記憶中的任何其他環境都更具挑戰性的運營環境。

The pandemic persisted, requiring a sustained focus on employee safety, giving back to our communities and working differently. Bottlenecks and shortages on everything, from labor to materials to freight, impeded supply across the global economy and created incremental costs and inefficiencies that were difficult to plan for.

大流行持續存在，需要持續關注員工安全，回饋我們的社區並以不同的方式工作。從勞動力到材料再到貨運，所有方面的瓶頸和短缺阻礙了全球經濟的供應，並造成難以計劃的增量成本和效率低下。

Finally, there was one more extreme challenge in 2021: The acceleration of cost inflation to levels the industry hadn't seen in a decade. Our particular situation was complicated further by a fire in one of our U.S. cereal plants, followed by a labor strike across all 4 U.S. cereal plants. The fire further strained our network and our ability to build inventory, which served to worsen the situation when we experienced the labor strike.

最後，2021 年還有一個更極端的挑戰：成本通脹加速至行業十年未見的水平。我們的特殊情況因我們的一個美國穀物工廠發生火災而變得更加複雜，隨後所有 4 個美國穀物工廠都發生了罷工。火災進一步使我們的網絡和我們建立庫存的能力變得緊張，這使我們經歷罷工時的情況更加惡化。

We are pleased to have our team back to work. Strikes are painful for everyone, and not only did this strike affect our employees' lives, it also had a near-term financial impact on the company. It negatively impacted sales and profit in the fourth quarter of 2021, and it will have carryover cost impacts in quarter 1 2022. It will also have sales impacts through the second quarter as we continue to rebuild inventories. In the end, though, we did what we believe was right for the business over the long term.

我們很高興我們的團隊重新開始工作。罷工對每個人來說都是痛苦的，這次罷工不僅影響了我們員工的生活，還對公司產生了近期的財務影響。它對 2021 年第四季度的銷售和利潤產生了負面影響，並將在 2022 年第一季度產生結轉成本影響。隨著我們繼續重建庫存，它還將對整個第二季度的銷售產生影響。但最終，我們做了我們認為長期適合業務的事情。

Working through these challenges required extraordinary efforts by our employees who clearly rose to the occasion. From safety precautions and volunteerism; to incredible agility and creativity by our supply chain; to the actions we took to help mitigate the profit impact of high costs, including productivity initiatives and revenue growth management actions, we executed well. The result was delivery of the 2021 guidance we have been raising or reaffirming since early in the year, even despite the labor strike extending well beyond what we had incorporated into our latest guidance.

應對這些挑戰需要我們的員工做出非凡的努力，他們顯然已經挺身而出。來自安全預防措施和志願服務；通過我們的供應鏈獲得令人難以置信的敏捷性和創造力；對於我們為幫助減輕高成本對利潤的影響而採取的措施，包括生產力舉措和收入增長管理措施，我們執行得很好。結果是我們自年初以來一直在提出或重申的 2021 年指導方針得以交付，儘管罷工的範圍遠遠超出了我們最新指導方針中的內容。

So we're in good condition as we head into 2022. Our international regions continued to demonstrate very strong momentum, each growing ahead of their long-term targets and featuring strong in-market performance and responsible price realization.

因此，我們在進入 2022 年時處於良好狀態。我們的國際地區繼續表現出非常強勁的勢頭，每個地區的增長都超過了他們的長期目標，並具有強勁的市場表現和負責任的價格實現。

In North America, our snacks and frozen businesses are showing momentum, with 2-year compound annual growth in consumption led by leading world-class brands.

在北美，我們的零食和冷凍業務呈現增長勢頭，在世界級領先品牌的帶動下，消費量連續兩年復合增長。

The capabilities we enhanced in recent years are paying off. Our data and analytics capabilities are making our marketing dollars go further. Our e-commerce capabilities are sustaining momentum in that emerging channel. Our innovation pipeline is as strong as ever. And you can see how our capabilities around revenue growth management have improved just by looking at the strength of our price/mix performance.

我們近年來增強的能力正在得到回報。我們的數據和分析能力使我們的營銷資金走得更遠。我們的電子商務能力在這個新興渠道中保持著勢頭。我們的創新渠道一如既往地強大。您可以通過查看我們的價格/組合表現強度來了解我們在收入增長管理方面的能力是如何提高的。

Our cash flow remained strong, benefiting from discipline on restructuring outlays, prioritization of capital investment and strong management of core working capital. Along with a deleveraged balance sheet, this gives us financial flexibility, enabling us to increase the cash we return to shareowners and keep our powder dry for potential M&A opportunities.

我們的現金流保持強勁，這得益於重組支出的紀律、資本投資的優先次序和核心營運資金的強大管理。除了去槓桿化的資產負債表外，這還為我們提供了財務靈活性，使我們能夠增加返還給股東的現金，並為潛在的併購機會保持幹勁。

We have some work to do. Economy-wide, bottlenecks and shortages persist. And after our supply was further disrupted by the fire and strike, we are in the process of recovering production, inventory and service levels as well as commercial programs in that business. And as you'll hear in a moment, we are guiding toward another year of balanced growth even as we take a prudent planning stance toward the current operating environment.

我們有一些工作要做。在整個經濟範圍內，瓶頸和短缺仍然存在。在我們的供應因火災和罷工進一步中斷後，我們正在恢復生產、庫存和服務水平以及該業務的商業計劃。正如您稍後會聽到的那樣，即使我們對當前的運營環境採取審慎的規劃立場，我們也正朝著新的平衡增長年邁進。

Importantly, we remain on our strategy, deploy for balanced growth, which is depicted on Slide #7. This strategy continues to keep us on our path for steady, balanced financial delivery. It is designed to accommodate evolving industry conditions, and it is working.

重要的是，我們堅持我們的戰略，為實現平衡增長而部署，如幻燈片 #7 所示。這一戰略繼續使我們保持穩定、平衡的財務交付。它旨在適應不斷變化的行業條件，並且正在發揮作用。

And equally importantly, we remain committed to our values as a company. We don't really strive to grow, we strive to grow the right way. Accordingly, we continue to make progress on Better Days, our ESG-oriented program. Just a few Better Days highlights from quarter 4 are shared on Slide #8. As you can see, we remain active in this area, both behind the scenes with donations and sustainability work, but also leveraging some of this good work in our commercial activation.

同樣重要的是，我們仍然致力於我們作為一家公司的價值觀。我們並不真正努力成長，我們努力以正確的方式成長。因此，我們繼續在以 ESG 為導向的計劃 Better Days 上取得進展。幻燈片 #8 上僅分享了第 4 季度的一些“美好時光”亮點。如您所見，我們在這一領域保持活躍，不僅在幕後進行捐贈和可持續發展工作，而且還在我們的商業活動中利用了其中一些出色的工作。

Let me now turn it over to Amit so he can take you through our financial results and outlook in more detail.

現在讓我把它交給阿米特，這樣他就可以更詳細地了解我們的財務業績和展望。

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Slide #10 summarizes our full year results for 2021. As you can see, we met or exceeded our full year guidance on all 4 key metrics. Organic net sales growth came in at 3.5%, ahead of our guidance range and equating to a 2-year CAGR of nearly 5%. Clearly, this is strong growth, and it reflects good momentum in the vast majority of our business.

謝謝，史蒂夫，大家早上好。幻燈片 #10 總結了我們 2021 年的全年業績。如您所見，我們在所有 4 個關鍵指標上均達到或超過了全年指導。有機淨銷售額增長 3.5%，高於我們的指導範圍，相當於近 5% 的 2 年復合年增長率。顯然，這是強勁的增長，反映了我們絕大多數業務的良好勢頭。

Currency-neutral adjusted basis operating profit declined by less than 2%, within the guidance range we had last quarter. Importantly, we achieved this in spite of the labor strike that began in the fourth quarter, extending much longer than we had assumed. On a 2-year CAGR basis, excluding from 2019, the since-divested businesses, this equates to nearly 4% growth, a very strong performance amidst the significant headwinds that Steve mentioned.

在我們上個季度的指導範圍內，貨幣中性調整後的營業利潤下降了不到 2%。重要的是，儘管罷工始於第四季度，但我們實現了這一目標，罷工持續的時間比我們想像的要長得多。按 2 年復合年增長率計算，不包括自 2019 年以來剝離的業務，這相當於近 4% 的增長，在史蒂夫提到的重大逆風中表現非常強勁。

Currency-neutral adjusted basis earnings per share increased by more than 1%, in line with the guidance we gave last quarter. And cash flow came in at $1.15 billion, in line with our guidance for $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, and outside of the pandemic lift in 2020, our highest level since 2014, despite having divested major businesses back in 2019.

貨幣中性調整後每股收益增長超過 1%，與我們上個季度給出的指引一致。儘管在 2019 年剝離了主要業務，但現金流量為 11.5 億美元，符合我們對 11 億至 12 億美元的指導，並且在 2020 年大流行病爆發之外，這是我們自 2014 年以來的最高水平。

Slide #11 offers a similar summary for the fourth quarter. As expected, Q4 was the quarter most affected by supply disruptions. Industry-wide bottlenecks and shortages were equally or more prevalent than they were in quarter 3. And we also endured the labor strike, which ended up lasting almost the entire fourth quarter. These factors, along with lapping the year-ago quarter's extra week, reduced year-on-year declines in currency-neutral adjusted basis, operating profit and earnings per share. Meanwhile, though organic basis net sales growth remained very strong, led by sustained momentum in key businesses and brands, along with strong price realization around the world. So aside from transitory supply-related factors, the business remained in good shape through quarter 4.

幻燈片 #11 提供了第四季度的類似摘要。正如預期的那樣，第四季度是受供應中斷影響最大的季度。與第三季度相比，全行業的瓶頸和短缺現象同樣普遍或更為普遍。我們還忍受了罷工，罷工幾乎持續了整個第四季度。這些因素，加上去年同期增加一周，減少了貨幣中性調整後的基礎、營業利潤和每股收益的同比下降。與此同時，儘管主要業務和品牌的持續增長勢頭以及全球強勁的價格實現引領有機基礎淨銷售額增長仍然非常強勁。因此，除了與供應相關的暫時因素外，該業務在第四季度保持良好狀態。

Now let's examine these results in a little more detail. We'll start with net sales on Slide #12. As you can see, our organic net sales growth was more than 5% in the quarter and 3.5% for the full year, translating into 2-year CAGRs of 4% and 5%, respectively. Volume for the year, of course, lapped last year's strong pandemic-driven gains, particularly in the first half. In quarter 4, it was also affected by supply disruptions, particularly in North America, where we also endured the labor strike in our cereal business.

現在讓我們更詳細地檢查這些結果。我們將從幻燈片#12 的淨銷售額開始。如您所見，我們本季度的有機淨銷售額增長超過 5%，全年增長 3.5%，分別轉化為 4% 和 5% 的 2 年復合年增長率。當然，今年的交易量超過了去年大流行驅動的強勁增長，尤其是在上半年。在第四季度，它還受到了供應中斷的影響，尤其是在北美，我們的穀物業務也經歷了罷工。

Price/mix growth for the year was more than 5%. This reflects the revenue growth management actions we took all year as we endeavor to cover rising cost inflation. This price/mix growth accelerated to nearly 9% in quarter 4, giving you an idea of just how much our cost inflation has accelerated and just how well we are executing revenue growth management. Also contributing to it is a relative lack of merchandising activity amidst supply disruptions.

今年的價格/組合增長超過 5%。這反映了我們在努力應對不斷上升的成本通脹時全年採取的收入增長管理措施。這種價格/組合增長在第 4 季度加速至近 9%，讓您了解我們的成本通脹加速了多少，以及我們執行收入增長管理的情況如何。在供應中斷的情況下，商品銷售活動相對缺乏也是造成這種情況的原因。

Outside of organic growth, we lapped 2020's once every 6 years 53rd week in quarter 4. And foreign currency translation, which had been a tailwind in the first half, turned into a modest headwind in quarter 4.

除了有機增長之外，我們在第 4 季度的第 53 週每 6 年超越 2020 年一次。在上半年一直是順風的外幣換算在第 4 季度變成了適度的逆風。

Moving down the income statement, Slide #13 shows our gross profit performance. As we had anticipated, our gross profit declined year-on-year in quarter 4. Our productivity and revenue growth management actions continued to substantially cover market-driven cost inflation even as the latter continued to accelerate. However, there was significant incremental cost and disruption stemming from the current operating environment. And then on top of that came the supply disruptions and costs related to the strike in our U.S. cereal business. These could not be covered with productivity and pricing.

向下移動損益表，幻燈片 #13 顯示了我們的毛利潤表現。正如我們預期的那樣，我們的毛利潤在第 4 季度同比下降。我們的生產力和收入增長管理行動繼續大幅覆蓋市場驅動的成本通脹，即使後者繼續加速。然而，當前的運營環境帶來了顯著的成本增量和中斷。最重要的是，與我們美國穀物業務罷工相關的供應中斷和成本。生產力和定價無法涵蓋這些。

For the full year, we delivered gross profit that was below 2020's unusually high level, but still higher than the pre-pandemic 2019. This is a good performance given the decades-high commodity and freight costs, the economy-wide bottlenecks and shortages and then the fire and strike. As we have said, in this high-cost environment, we have to focus on both margins and dollar growth.

全年，我們的毛利潤低於 2020 年的異常高水平，但仍高於大流行前的 2019 年。考慮到數十年來的高商品和貨運成本、整個經濟的瓶頸和短缺以及然後開火併罷工。正如我們所說，在這種高成本環境下，我們必須同時關注利潤率和美元增長。

On Slide #14, we see SG&A expense, which is comprised of advertising and promotion, R&D and overhead. Last year's quarter 3 and quarter 4 were unusual in that they included incremental A&P investment delayed from the first half because of the pandemic. They also included a sizable increase in incentive compensation accruals. But comparing this year's SG&A expense to 2019, both for fourth quarter and full year, we see it was lower. A&P in 2021 was down modestly versus 2020, owing to lapping a 53rd week and to restraining investment behind supply constrained brands, but it remained higher than 2019, reflecting good, sustained support.

在幻燈片 #14 上，我們看到 SG&A 費用，包括廣告和促銷、研發和管理費用。去年第 3 季度和第 4 季度的不同尋常之處在於，它們包括因大流行而從上半年推遲的增量 A&P 投資。其中還包括應計激勵薪酬的大幅增加。但將今年的 SG&A 費用與 2019 年的第四季度和全年進行比較，我們發現它較低。與 2020 年相比，2021 年的 A&P 小幅下降，原因是連續第 53 週以及限制對供應受限品牌的投資，但仍高於 2019 年，反映出良好、持續的支持。

Overhead, meanwhile, was lower in '21 than 2020, principally because of lapping high incentive compensation, but it was also lower than 2019. This 2-year decrease is related to reduced travel and meetings during the pandemic as well as some benefits not likely to recur, but it also reflects the work we did to remove stranded costs after our divestiture.

與此同時，21 年的間接費用低於 2020 年，主要是因為獎勵高昂，但也低於 2019 年。這 2 年的減少與大流行期間旅行和會議減少以及一些不太可能的福利有關再次發生，但它也反映了我們在剝離後為消除擱淺成本所做的工作。

If you look at operating profit on Slide #15, you can see that our fourth quarter came in below that of 2019 as we saw no moderation of the economy-wide bottlenecks and shortages, and we experienced incremental disruption and costs related to the labor strike. However, for the full year, our operating profit in 2021 finished above that of 2019, even though that year included 7 months of profit from since-divested businesses.

如果您查看幻燈片 #15 的營業利潤，您會發現我們的第四季度低於 2019 年，因為我們看到整個經濟的瓶頸和短缺沒有緩和，而且我們經歷了與勞工罷工相關的增量中斷和成本.然而，就全年而言，我們在 2021 年的營業利潤高於 2019 年，儘管該年包括自剝離業務的 7 個月利潤。

So notwithstanding the severe transitory disruptions we experienced in quarter 4 and the lapping of an exceptional pandemic-driven 2020, there is no question that our operating profit remains on an upward path.

因此，儘管我們在第 4 季度經歷了嚴重的暫時性中斷，並且經歷了由大流行驅動的 2020 年，但毫無疑問，我們的營業利潤仍處於上升趨勢。

Slide #16 shows the operating profit of each of our regions. As you can see, the international regions had another strong year, posting growth on top of growth. The only region whose operating profit is below 2020 and 2019 is North America, where the bottlenecks and shortages were most acute and where we experienced the fire and strike.

幻燈片 #16 顯示了我們每個地區的營業利潤。如您所見，國際地區又是強勁的一年，在增長的基礎上實現了增長。唯一一個營業利潤低於 2020 年和 2019 年的地區是北美，那裡的瓶頸和短缺最為嚴重，我們也經歷了火災和罷工。

Moving down the P&L. Let's turn to Slide #17 and the items below operating profit. Interest expense decreased this year on lower debt and the lapping of last year's debt redemption costs in the fourth quarter. Other income decreased because of lower pension income. Effective tax rate came in at 22% rate we had guided to. JV earnings and minority interests were collectively less negative than last year, owing to this year's consolidation of our Africa joint ventures. Average shares outstanding were lower year-on-year due to buybacks we executed early in the year.

向下移動損益表。讓我們轉到幻燈片#17 和營業利潤下面的項目。由於債務減少以及去年第四季度的債務贖回成本下降，今年的利息支出有所減少。其他收入因養老金收入減少而減少。有效稅率為我們指導的 22%。由於今年我們對非洲合資企業的整合，合資企業收益和少數股東權益的負值總體低於去年。由於我們在年初執行的回購，平均流通股同比下降。

Let's now discuss our cash flow and balance sheet shown on Slide #18. Cash flow finished in line with our guidance. As expected, we finished 2021 with a cash flow that was below last year's unusually high level, but well ahead of pre-pandemic years, which are the more relevant comparisons. Versus 2018 and 2019, this improvement in cash flow generation was driven by higher operating profit, reduced restructuring-related cash outlays, continued effective management of core working capital and a moderation in our capital expenditure as a percentage of net sales.

現在讓我們討論一下幻燈片 #18 上顯示的現金流和資產負債表。現金流完成符合我們的指導。正如預期的那樣，我們在 2021 年結束時的現金流量低於去年的異常高水平，但遠超大流行前幾年，這是更相關的比較。與 2018 年和 2019 年相比，現金流產生的這種改善是由更高的營業利潤、減少與重組相關的現金支出、持續有效地管理核心營運資金以及我們的資本支出占淨銷售額的百分比放緩所推動的。

Meanwhile, our balance sheet remains solid. We continue to reduce net debt even despite this year's increase in cash returned to shareowners in the form of resumed share buybacks and increased dividend. So our financial condition remains quite strong.

與此同時，我們的資產負債表依然穩健。儘管今年以恢復股票回購和增加股息的形式返還給股東的現金有所增加，但我們仍繼續減少淨債務。因此，我們的財務狀況仍然相當強勁。

Let's now turn to our guidance for 2022, starting with some key planning assumptions shown on Slide #19. We approach our 2022 plans with a prudent planning stance, given the current operating environment, including several assumptions that many of you likely have already considered in your models.

現在讓我們轉向我們對 2022 年的指導，從幻燈片 #19 中顯示的一些關鍵規劃假設開始。鑑於當前的運營環境，包括你們中的許多人可能已經在模型中考慮的幾個假設，我們以審慎的規劃立場來處理我們的 2022 年計劃。

Already, high-cost inflation accelerates in 2022 to a double-digit rate, with first half inflation higher than the second half inflation. Continued productivity and revenue growth management actions continue, which have been successful so far in largely covering market-driven cost inflation. The current environment of bottlenecks and shortages persist at least through the first half before moderating across the second half.

高成本通脹在 2022 年已經加速至兩位數，上半年通脹高於下半年。持續的生產力和收入增長管理行動仍在繼續，到目前為止，這些行動在很大程度上涵蓋了市場驅動的成本膨脹。當前的瓶頸和短缺環境至少會持續到上半年，然後在下半年有所緩和。

The U.S. cereal fire and labor strike has a carryover impact through the first half, as we will discuss further in a moment. At-home demand growth continues to gradually decelerate in part reflected by price elasticity gradually returning over the course of the year. In addition, reinvestment is restored behind capabilities and in a gradual progression on commercial activity behind supply-constrained brands.

美國穀物火災和勞工罷工對上半年有遺留影響，我們稍後將進一步討論。國內需求增長繼續逐漸放緩，部分原因是價格彈性在一年中逐漸恢復。此外，再投資在能力和供應受限品牌背後的商業活動中逐漸恢復。

Aside from the [rap around] strike impact, none of this should be news. But in the first half, they do serve to offset what is good underlying momentum in our business, which will then be plainer to see in the second half.

除了[說唱]罷工影響之外，這些都不應該是新聞。但在上半年，它們確實抵消了我們業務中良好的潛在動力，這在下半年將更加明顯。

With that as background, let's now discuss items for 2022, as shown on Slide #20. Organic basis net sales growth should be about 3%, driven by continued strong price/mix around the world. Our international regions have strong momentum but lapped strong 2-year volume growth, while North America faces the aforementioned supply constraints which may impede shipments early in the year.

以此為背景，現在讓我們討論 2022 年的項目，如幻燈片 #20 所示。在全球持續強勁的價格/組合的推動下，有機基礎淨銷售額增長應該在 3% 左右。我們的國際地區發展勢頭強勁，但連續兩年的銷量增長強勁，而北美面臨上述供應限制，可能會阻礙年初的出貨量。

Adjusted basis operating profit growth should be in the 1% to 2% range, excluding currency. As mentioned, we are planning around the assumption of an environment of high cost inflation and economy-wide bottlenecks and shortages, particularly in the first half, where we are also experiencing carryover impact from last year's strike and fire. In addition, we plan to gradually restore investment in A&P and overhead.

調整後的營業利潤增長應在 1% 至 2% 的範圍內，不包括貨幣。如前所述，我們正在圍繞高成本通脹和經濟瓶頸和短缺的假設進行規劃，特別是在上半年，我們也正在經歷去年罷工和火災的遺留影響。此外，我們計劃逐步恢復對 A&P 和間接費用的投資。

Adjusted basis earnings per share growth should also be in the 1% to 2% range before currency. We expect other income to decline because of lower expected pension income, and our effective tax rate is projected to move higher to about 22.5%. These should be partially offset by about a 1% decrease in average shares outstanding as we increased our repurchase activity this year.

調整後的每股收益增長也應在貨幣前 1% 至 2% 的範圍內。由於預期養老金收入較低，我們預計其他收入將下降，我們的有效稅率預計將上升至約 22.5%。隨著我們今年增加回購活動，這些應部分被平均流通股減少約 1% 所抵消。

Not included in these forecasts is any attempt to guide for foreign currency translation, which is unpredictable. But if rates today were to prevail, they would represent a headwind of somewhere between 2% and 3%.

這些預測中不包括任何指導外幣換算的嘗試，這是不可預測的。但如果今天的利率佔上風，它們將代表 2% 到 3% 之間的逆風。

Cash flow is expected to grow in line with reported basis operating profit and EPS growth, depending on where currency turns out to be, putting us in the $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion range and featuring continued discipline on restructuring outlays, core working capital and capital expenditure. Our plan is to continue to drive balanced financial delivery, balance between top line growth, profit growth and cash flow growth, even amidst what is clearly a challenging business environment right now.

現金流預計將與報告的基礎營業利潤和每股收益增長保持一致，具體取決於貨幣的變化情況，使我們處於 11 億至 12 億美元的範圍內，並在重組支出、核心營運資金和資本支出方面繼續保持紀律.我們的計劃是繼續推動平衡的財務交付，在收入增長、利潤增長和現金流增長之間取得平衡，即使在目前顯然充滿挑戰的商業環境中也是如此。

There are some quarterly phasing peculiarities shown on Slide #21 that you should keep in mind as you model 2022. Specifically, we should see an uneven first half versus second half. To begin with, profit comparisons are the toughest in the first half. Then on top of that, this year's first half has added pressures around higher input cost inflation, persisting bottlenecks and shortages, and the strike and fire impacts that we discussed earlier. These begin to clear up or moderate in the second half, when you should see profit growth not only resume but get an additional year-on-year lift in quarter 4 from lapping the impact of the fire and the strike.

在對 2022 年進行建模時，您應該牢記幻燈片 #21 中顯示的一些季度階段特性。具體而言，我們應該看到上半年與下半年的不平衡。首先，利潤比較是上半年最艱難的。最重要的是，今年上半年增加了投入成本通脹上升、持續存在的瓶頸和短缺以及我們之前討論的罷工和火災影響的壓力。這些在下半年開始回升或放緩，屆時您應該會看到利潤增長不僅會恢復，而且會在第四季度因火災和罷工的影響而獲得額外的同比增長。

And with that, let me turn it back to Steve for a review of our major businesses.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回到史蒂夫來審查我們的主要業務。

Thanks, Amit. I'll start with Slide #23, which shows the 2-year compound annual growth rates and net sales across our 4 regions.

謝謝，阿米特。我將從幻燈片 #23 開始，它顯示了我們 4 個地區的 2 年復合年增長率和淨銷售額。

Because of the outsized impact of COVID in 2020, this is really the best way to evaluate 2021's performance. And what you see is consistently good 2-year growth across all regions in all quarters and the full year. There was notable strength in our 3 international regions, driven by cereal, by snacks and by noodles and other. And North America fared reasonably well in the context of what were by far the most severe supply disruptions.

由於 COVID 在 2020 年的巨大影響，這確實是評估 2021 年表現的最佳方式。您所看到的是所有地區在所有季度和全年中的 2 年持續良好增長。在穀物、零食和麵條等的推動下，我們的 3 個國際地區的實力顯著。在迄今為止最嚴重的供應中斷的背景下，北美的表現相當不錯。

Let's review each of our regions in turn, starting with North America on Slide #24. North America's 2021 performance has to be viewed in the context of its year-ago comparisons and unusually severe supply constraints.

讓我們依次回顧我們的每個地區，從幻燈片 #24 上的北美開始。北美 2021 年的表現必須在其一年前的比較和異常嚴重的供應限制的背景下看待。

First, remember what we were lapping. A pandemic-related surge in demand, particularly for our most at-home-oriented categories, which are cereal, frozen from the griddle and veggie foods. This not only led to exceptionally strong organic net sales growth in 2020, but it also triggered exceptional plant utilization and operating leverage, driving up profit that year. We also were lapping a once every 6 years extra week in our fiscal fourth quarter in 2020. Excluding that 53rd week and any impacts from divestitures or currency translation, north America's operating profit in 2020 grew nearly double digits.

首先，記住我們在研磨什麼。與大流行相關的需求激增，特別是對於我們最面向家庭的類別，即穀物、從平底鍋和蔬菜食品中冷凍。這不僅導致了 2020 年異常強勁的有機淨銷售額增長，而且還引發了異常的工廠利用率和運營槓桿，從而推高了當年的利潤。在 2020 財年第四季度，我們還每 6 年額外增加一周。不計第 53 週以及資產剝離或貨幣換算的任何影響，北美 2020 年的營業利潤增長了近兩位數。

Then let's remember the unusual supply constraints we faced in 2021. We entered the year at full capacity utilization in cereal and key elements of our frozen from the griddle categories, with the pandemic delaying our ability to expand capacity as previously planned. We then experienced what all companies experienced, an unprecedented disruption in global supply chains, which not only impeded shipments and slowed production, but also contributed to unexpected costs. And to make matters worse, we suffered the misfortune of a major fire at one of our cereal plants, followed by a labor strike at all 4 of our U.S. cereal plants.

然後讓我們記住我們在 2021 年面臨的不同尋常的供應限制。進入這一年，我們在穀物和來自煎鍋類別的冷凍食品的關鍵要素方面處於滿負荷狀態，而大流行推遲了我們按原計劃擴大產能的能力。然後，我們經歷了所有公司都經歷過的事情，全球供應鏈前所未有的中斷，這不僅阻礙了發貨和減緩了生產，而且還導致了意想不到的成本。更糟糕的是，我們不幸在我們的一家穀物工廠發生了一場大火，隨後我們在美國的所有 4 家穀物工廠都發生了罷工。

So to finish 2021 with a 2% 2-year CAGR in organic net sales growth and roughly 1% 2-year CAGR on operating profit, excluding since-divested businesses, is a good achievement. This reflects momentum sustained in key brands outside of cereal. It also reflects productivity and revenue growth management to offset the market-driven inflation in input costs. And it reflects remarkable execution amid unprecedented business conditions.

因此，到 2021 年結束時，有機淨銷售額增長 2% 的 2 年復合年增長率和營業利潤約 1% 的 2 年復合年增長率（不包括自剝離業務）是一個不錯的成就。這反映了穀物以外主要品牌的勢頭。它還反映了生產力和收入增長管理，以抵消市場驅動的投入成本通脹。它反映了在前所未有的商業條件下出色的執行力。

Let's dig into each of the 3 major category groups within North America, starting with the largest, snacks, on Slide #25. Our North America snacks business finished 2021 with organic net sales growth of 7% year-on-year and 5% on a 2-year CAGR basis. This represents a continuation of multiyear momentum for this business and reflects the strength of our brands.

讓我們深入了解北美的 3 個主要類別組中的每一個，從幻燈片 #25 中最大的零食開始。我們的北美零食業務於 2021 年結束，有機淨銷售額同比增長 7%，2 年復合年增長率為 5%。這代表了該業務多年勢頭的延續，反映了我們品牌的實力。

Two of these world-class brands are shown on Slide #26. Pringles, closing in on $900 million in retail sales in the U.S., had another strong year in 2021. Not only did it gain share year-on-year. But as you can see on the slide, its 2-year CAGRs well outpaced the category all year long and even accelerated as the year progressed. The gains were driven by innovation, like Scorchin'; the expansion of pack formats, like multipacks; and effective advertising from the Super Bowl on.

幻燈片#26 展示了其中兩個世界級品牌。品客薯片在美國的零售額接近 9 億美元，2021 年又是強勁的一年。不僅份額同比增長。但正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，其 2 年的複合年增長率全年都遠遠超過該類別，甚至隨著時間的推移而加速。收益是由創新驅動的，比如 Scorchin'；包裝格式的擴展，例如多件裝；以及從超級碗開始的有效廣告。

And then there's Cheez-It, now well over $1 billion in U.S. retail sales. This brand drove most of our share gains in crackers in 2021. As you can see, it continues to well outpace the category on a 2-year CAGR basis as well, driven by innovation like Snap'd; pack formats, like caddies; and effective advertising, which drove the core business.

然後是 Cheez-It，現在在美國的零售額已經超過 10 億美元。這個品牌在 2021 年推動了我們在餅乾領域的大部分份額增長。正如你所看到的，在 Snap'd 等創新的推動下，它在 2 年的複合年增長率基礎上也繼續遠遠超過該類別；打包格式，如球童；和有效的廣告，推動了核心業務。

But these aren't our only world-class snacking brands. Take a look at the continued momentum in Pop-Tarts and Rice Krispies Treats shown on Slide #27. Pop-Tarts, with over $800 million in U.S. retail sales, continued its growth momentum in 2021, outpacing the portable wholesome snacks category on a 2-year CAGR in every quarter. Similarly, Rice Krispies Treats also sustained its momentum in 2021. These treats generate $350 million in retail sales. And not only did they gain share again in 2021. Their 2-year CAGRs continued to well outpace the portable wholesome snacks category. Like Pringles and Cheez-It, these are world-class differentiated brands that respond well to innovation and brand building.

但這些並不是我們唯一的世界級零食品牌。看看幻燈片 #27 上顯示的 Pop-Tarts 和 Rice Krispies Treats 的持續發展勢頭。 Pop-Tarts 在美國的零售額超過 8 億美元，在 2021 年繼續保持增長勢頭，每季度的 2 年復合年增長率均超過便攜式健康零食類別。同樣，Rice Krispies Treats 在 2021 年也保持了增長勢頭。這些零食產生了 3.5 億美元的零售額。他們不僅在 2021 年再次獲得份額。他們的 2 年復合年增長率繼續遠遠超過便攜式健康零食類別。與 Pringles 和 Cheez-It 一樣，這些都是世界級的差異化品牌，對創新和品牌建設反應良好。

Turning to Slide #28. Let's discuss our 2 North American frozen businesses. Lapping high single-digit growth in 2020, these businesses collectively sustained good momentum on a 2-year CAGR basis, even despite operating at or near full capacity across much of their product lines. Even better, we have capacity coming online in the first half of 2022.

轉到幻燈片 #28。讓我們討論一下我們的 2 家北美冷凍業務。這些業務在 2020 年實現了高個位數增長，在 2 年復合年增長率的基礎上共同保持了良好的勢頭，儘管它們的大部分產品線都處於或接近滿負荷狀態。更好的是，我們的容量將在 2022 年上半年上線。

Slide #29 shows how these 2 world-class brands performed in market. With almost $900 million in U.S. retail sales, Eggo sustained solid momentum growth on a 2-year CAGR basis in 2021, only slightly trailing the category as it operated at capacity. Morningstar Farms, our leading plant-based brand, generating nearly $400 million in U.S. retail sales, and it finished the year outpacing the frozen veg/vegan category on a 2-year CAGR basis. So similar to snacks, our frozen foods brands continue to demonstrate very strong momentum.

幻燈片#29 展示了這兩個世界級品牌在市場上的表現。憑藉近 9 億美元的美國零售額，Eggo 在 2021 年的 2 年復合年增長率基礎上保持了穩健的增長勢頭，僅略微落後於該類別，因為它是在滿負荷運營的。晨星農場是我們領先的植物品牌，在美國創造了近 4 億美元的零售額，並且在 2 年的複合年增長率基礎上超過了冷凍素食/純素食類別。與零食類似，我們的冷凍食品品牌繼續表現出非常強勁的勢頭。

Let's round out our discussion of North America with cereal, shown on Slide #30. In addition to lapping 2020's pandemic-aided high single-digit growth, North America cereal faced the most challenging of supply conditions. Recall that we had already been delayed due to the pandemic in previously planned capacity expansions. Then just as we were adding capacity came the economy-wide shortages and bottlenecks. In late July, we suffered a fire in our Memphis plant, which not only strained our network further, but impeded our ability to build inventory ahead of what would eventually be a strike at all 4 of our U.S. cereal plans spanning almost the entire fourth quarter.

讓我們用穀物來結束我們對北美的討論，如幻燈片 #30 所示。除了在 2020 年大流行的幫助下實現高個位數增長之外，北美穀物還面臨著最具挑戰性的供應條件。回想一下，由於之前計劃的產能擴張大流行，我們已經被推遲了。然後，就在我們增加產能的時候，整個經濟出現了短缺和瓶頸。 7 月下旬，我們的孟菲斯工廠發生火災，這不僅使我們的網絡進一步緊張，而且阻礙了我們在幾乎整個第四季度的所有 4 個美國穀物計劃最終罷工之前建立庫存的能力.

The result of not being able to ship enough product and the related reduction in commercial support for these products was a sharp year-on-year decline in net sales. This was mostly in the second half. In fact, through the first half, our 2-year CAGR for this business was roughly flat. Unfortunately, this has resulted in low inventories and even out-of-stocks in stores for many of our brands, and we therefore elected to pull back on commercial activity.

無法運送足夠的產品以及對這些產品的相關商業支持減少的結果是淨銷售額同比急劇下降。這主要發生在下半場。事實上，整個上半年，我們這項業務的 2 年復合年增長率基本持平。不幸的是，這導致我們許多品牌的庫存低，甚至在商店中缺貨，因此我們選擇撤回商業活動。

Not only have we had to pull back on A&P investment, we've also had to dramatically reduce our in-store merchandising. The latter can be seen on Slide #31. Specifically using scanner data, the chart captures the year-on-year changes in the percent of retail sales volume that was sold on any promotion. It shows how Kellogg was, like the rest of the category, returning to pre-pandemic levels of merchandising in 2021, but then it shows just how much we had to pull back in the fourth quarter, especially late in the quarter, due to the strike.

我們不僅不得不縮減 A&P 投資，還必須大幅減少店內商品銷售。後者可以在幻燈片 #31 上看到。特別是使用掃描儀數據，該圖表捕獲了任何促銷活動中零售量百分比的同比變化。它顯示了家樂氏如何像其他類別的其他產品一樣，在 2021 年恢復到大流行前的商品銷售水平，但隨後它顯示了我們在第四季度，尤其是在本季度末，由於罷工。

Let's talk briefly about how we are thinking about the post strike and fire recovery of this business shown on Slide #32. As previously mentioned, the fire and strike's cost impacts spans across the fourth quarter of 2021 and quarter 1 2022, owing to carryover of costs and lost operating leverage. In addition, there will be some missed net sales opportunities as we work to catch up on inventory, both ours and that of our customers. In the end, it will be the second half before we can truly be back on a full commercial program, though we will get started as soon as we can in supporting priority brands and SKUs. This is incorporated into our guidance.

讓我們簡要談談我們如何看待幻燈片 #32 所示的該業務的罷工後和火災恢復。如前所述，由於成本結轉和運營槓桿損失，火災和罷工的成本影響跨越 2021 年第四季度和 2022 年第一季度。此外，在我們努力趕上我們和我們客戶的庫存時，將會錯失一些淨銷售機會。最後，我們將在下半年才能真正恢復完整的商業計劃，儘管我們會盡快開始支持優先品牌和 SKU。這已納入我們的指導。

Now let's turn to our international regions, whose financial performance is shown on Slide #33. Remember, these are not small businesses. These 3 regions collectively account for more than 40% of our net sales. And what they delivered in 2021 was nothing less than impressive, particularly given worldwide supply challenges. All 3 posted strong organic basis net sales growth in 2021, with both volume and price/mix growing on top of what was strong growth last year. And on operating profit, all posted growth in the high single digits or double digits on a currency-neutral basis.

現在讓我們轉向我們的國際地區，其財務業績顯示在幻燈片#33。請記住，這些不是小企業。這三個地區合計占我們淨銷售額的 40% 以上。他們在 2021 年交付的成果令人印象深刻，尤其是考慮到全球供應挑戰。 2021 年，這 3 家公司都實現了強勁的有機基礎淨銷售額增長，銷量和價格/組合均在去年強勁增長的基礎上實現增長。在營業利潤方面，在貨幣中性的基礎上，所有公司都實現了高個位數或兩位數的增長。

Kellogg Europe's organic net sales growth is shown on Slide #34. In 2021, we sustained strong growth momentum in a region of the world that is comprised predominantly of mature developed markets and an intensely competitive retailer environment. Yet we grew net sales organically for a fourth consecutive year in 2021 and growing both volume and price/mix.

Kellogg Europe 的有機淨銷售額增長見幻燈片 #34。 2021 年，我們在主要由成熟發達市場和競爭激烈的零售商環境組成的世界地區保持了強勁的增長勢頭。然而，我們在 2021 年連續第四年實現淨銷售額有機增長，並且銷量和價格/組合都在增長。

As you can see on Slide #35, the growth was driven by strong in-market performance in both cereal and Pringles. In cereal, master brand advertising and selective innovation continued to drive consumption growth ahead of the category on a 2-year CAGR basis in key markets. Pringles, meanwhile, also continued to outpace the category in key markets. The new Sizzl'n line has proven to be incremental, while strong execution of marketing programs, including this year's Euro Soccer Tournament, has continued to drive the base business.

正如您在幻燈片 #35 中看到的那樣，增長是由穀物和品客薯片的強勁市場表現推動的。在穀物方面，主品牌廣告和選擇性創新繼續推動主要市場的消費增長領先於該類別，以 2 年復合年增長率為基礎。與此同時，品客薯片也在主要市場繼續超越同類產品。事實證明，新的 Sizzl'n 產品線是漸進式的，而營銷計劃的強有力執行，包括今年的歐洲足球錦標賽，繼續推動基礎業務。

Similarly, we sustained multiyear momentum in Latin America, as indicated on Slide #36. We grew volume in 2021 on top of last year's surge, and we increased our price/mix in order to help cover the double hit of high input costs and adverse transactional foreign currency impact.

同樣，我們在拉丁美洲保持多年勢頭，如幻燈片 #36 所示。在去年的激增基礎上，我們在 2021 年實現了銷量增長，我們提高了價格/組合，以幫助應對高投入成本和不利交易外匯影響的雙重打擊。

Slide #37 shows how this organic net sales growth has been generated in both snacks and cereal using 2-year CAGRs. Importantly, this growth was underpinned by good in-market performance. In cereal, our consumption growth on a 2-year CAGR basis continued to outpace the category in key markets in 2021. Even on a 1 year basis, we realized share gains in key markets. Pringles, meanwhile, also gained share, notably in our biggest markets, Mexico and Brazil.

幻燈片 #37 顯示了零食和穀類食品的有機淨銷售額增長是如何使用 2 年復合年增長率實現的。重要的是，這種增長得益於良好的市場表現。在穀物方面，我們在 2021 年的 2 年 CAGR 基礎上的消費增長繼續超過主要市場的類別。即使在 1 年的基礎上，我們也實現了主要市場的份額增長。與此同時，品客薯片也獲得了份額，尤其是在我們最大的市場墨西哥和巴西。

We'll finish our review with our largest international region in terms of net sales, AMEA, which is shown on Slide #38. This is yet another international region that built on multiyear track record for organic net sales growth. In 2021, Kellogg AMEA grew net sales on an organic basis for a seventh consecutive year. And it not only grew on top of 2020's strong growth, but it accelerated its growth to levels we haven't seen before. Growing both volume and price/mix, this 2021 performance reflected broad-based gains geographically and across category groups.

我們將完成對淨銷售額最大的國際地區 AMEA 的審查，如幻燈片 #38 所示。這是另一個建立在有機淨銷售額增長多年記錄基礎上的國際地區。 2021 年，家樂氏 AMEA 連續第七年實現淨銷售額有機增長。它不僅在 2020 年的強勁增長基礎上增長，而且還將增長加速到了我們從未見過的水平。 2021 年的銷量和價格/組合都在增長，這反映了地域和跨類別組的廣泛收益。

You can see this in the 2-year CAGR trends shown on Slide 39. We continue to see strong organic growth in snacks, cereal and noodles. And in-market, our AMEA cereal consumption outpaced the region's overall category on a 1-year and 2-year CAGR basis, led by key markets, ranging from Australia to India to Saudi Arabia. Pringles recorded similarly impressive consumption performance in 2021 in spite of supply disruptions related to the pandemic. Not only did its consumption outpaced the category on a 1-year and 2-year basis for the overall region, but it gained share in many of those same key markets.

您可以在幻燈片 39 所示的 2 年復合年增長率趨勢中看到這一點。我們繼續看到零食、穀物和麵條的強勁有機增長。在市場上，我們的 AMEA 穀物消費量在 1 年和 2 年復合年增長率的基礎上超過了該地區的整體類別，主要市場是澳大利亞、印度和沙特阿拉伯等主要市場。儘管大流行導致供應中斷，但品客薯片在 2021 年的消費表現同樣令人印象深刻。在整個地區，其消費量不僅在 1 年和 2 年的基礎上超過了同類產品，而且在許多相同的關鍵市場中也獲得了份額。

Allow me to wrap up with a brief summary on Slide #41. What you have seen from us this year should give you confidence of what we can do going forward. Firstly, we executed well through what were extraordinarily challenging business conditions, overcoming obstacles to deliver on full year guidance that we had already raised earlier this year.

請允許我對幻燈片 #41 做一個簡短的總結。今年你從我們這裡看到的應該讓你對我們未來能做的事情充滿信心。首先，我們在極具挑戰性的商業環境中表現出色，克服了實現我們今年早些時候提出的全年指導的障礙。

We faced a rapid acceleration in market-driven input cost inflation, and you saw us substantially cover it with productivity and with very effective revenue growth management actions that enabled us to realize price early and sufficiently.

我們面臨著市場驅動的投入成本膨脹的快速加速，您看到我們用生產力和非常有效的收入增長管理措施來大幅覆蓋它，使我們能夠及早充分地實現價格。

We faced economy-wide bottlenecks and shortages which created supply disruptions and incremental costs, yet we worked through them to continue to service our customers around the world.

我們面臨著整個經濟的瓶頸和短缺，這造成了供應中斷和成本增加，但我們努力克服這些瓶頸，繼續為世界各地的客戶提供服務。

We even faced the misfortune of a major fire in one of our U.S. plants, followed by a labor strike in one of our businesses. And we worked through those interruptions as well.

我們甚至遭遇了不幸，我們的一家美國工廠發生了一場大火，隨後我們的一家企業發生了罷工。我們也克服了這些干擾。

Secondly, it should be clear that we have strong business momentum. Our international businesses continued to deliver strong growth this year, even accelerating from strong growth last year. They grew in snacks, and they grew in cereal.

其次，應該清楚我們有強大的業務動力。今年，我們的國際業務繼續實現強勁增長，甚至比去年的強勁增長還要快。它們生長在零食中，它們生長在穀物中。

In North America, our largest business, snacks, delivered outstanding growth and category share performance all year long. Brands like Pringles, Cheez-It, Pop-Tarts and Rice Krispies Treats have never been stronger. And in our frozen foods businesses, we continue to show growth momentum on a 2-year CAGR basis. Eggo's growth was strong enough to run up against capacity limitations, which we are resolving. And Morningstar Farms plant-based foods growth came with increased household penetration.

在北美，我們最大的業務零食零食全年實現了出色的增長和類別份額表現。 Pringles、Cheez-It、Pop-Tarts 和 Rice Krispies Treats 等品牌從未如此強大。在我們的冷凍食品業務中，我們繼續顯示出 2 年復合年增長率的增長勢頭。 Eggo 的增長足夠強勁，足以克服容量限制，我們正在解決這個問題。晨星農場植物性食品的增長伴隨著家庭滲透率的提高。

And finally, we entered the new year in good financial condition. Our cash flow remained strong and we have delevered our balance sheet, giving us good financial flexibility. The result of all this was yet another year of balanced financial delivery in 2021, which we expect to sustain reliably and dependably in 2022.

最後，我們以良好的財務狀況進入了新的一年。我們的現金流保持強勁，我們已經去槓桿化了資產負債表，為我們提供了良好的財務靈活性。所有這一切的結果是 2021 年又是平衡財務交付的一年，我們預計這一年將在 2022 年可靠和可靠地維持。

And driving this dependable performance are the talent and determination of our world-class employees, who deserve tremendous credit for working through unprecedented challenges and keeping Kellogg on this path of profitable growth.

推動這種可靠表現的是我們世界級員工的才能和決心，他們在克服前所未有的挑戰並讓家樂氏保持在這條盈利增長的道路上而獲得巨大讚譽。

And with that, we'd be happy to take any questions that you might have.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) So we will take our first question from Ken Goldman from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）因此，我們將向摩根大通的 Ken Goldman 提出第一個問題。

Steve, you understandably highlighted the strength in North America snacks, which is doing phenomenally. I'm just curious, it did improve by 21% organically. That's a lot more than what's recently been posted, and I'm sure a lot of it is just ongoing strength in the business.

史蒂夫，你可以理解地強調了北美零食的實力，它的表現非常出色。我只是好奇，它確實有機地提高了 21%。這比最近發布的要多得多，而且我敢肯定，其中很多只是業務的持續實力。

But I'm just curious if we can sort of parse out what drove the spike, I guess, in this particular fourth quarter. Was it kids going back to school? Was it other factors?

但我只是好奇我們是否可以在這個特定的第四季度解析出是什麼推動了飆升。是孩子們回學校了嗎？是其他因素嗎？

And then I'm also curious to what degree guidance maybe considers what could be a little bit of a reversal there, if that's true, just on the tougher comparison.

然後我也很好奇指導可能會考慮到什麼程度的逆轉，如果這是真的，只是在更嚴格的比較中。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. I'd say the snacks business, there's not one thing that you would point to. It's really overall broad-based execution, innovation, new pack formats, that's driving the underlying momentum of the business. It's across brands, it's Pringles, it's Cheez-It, it's Rice Krispies Treats. It's broadly across customers. Some of it is a return to on-the-go, clearly, which is benefiting. But it's broad-based. It's very good price/mix performance on top of that. The innovations that -- I already mentioned Scorchin' doing extremely well.

是的。謝謝，肯。我會說零食業務，沒有一件事你會指出。推動業務發展的真正動力是全面廣泛的執行、創新、新包裝格式。它是跨品牌的，它是 Pringles，它是 Cheez-It，它是 Rice Krispies Treats。它廣泛應用於客戶。其中一些是對移動的回歸，顯然，這是有益的。但它是廣泛的。最重要的是，它的價格/組合性能非常好。創新——我已經提到 Scorchin 做得非常好。

So it's nice to see a number that's high double digits for sure, and to your question around what's in guidance, we're not forecasting a continued 20% growth, to be sure. And we'll have to lap that next year. But it's a great position to be in, strong brands, differentiated brands, good brand building against those. We kicked off the Pringles Super Bowl campaign on CBS prime time, will be on the big game again this year. So we expect to get off to a very strong start next year in our snacks business as well.

所以很高興看到一個高兩位數的數字，而且對於你關於指導內容的問題，我們肯定不會預測持續 20% 的增長。明年我們將不得不這樣做。但這是一個很好的位置，強大的品牌，差異化的品牌，良好的品牌建設。我們在 CBS 黃金時段啟動了品客薯片超級碗活動，今年將再次參加大型比賽。因此，我們預計明年我們的零食業務也會有一個非常強勁的開端。

Great. And then a quick follow-up. And Steve, I realize that crystal balls are cloudy right now. But when do you think we should start expecting to see an inflection in scanner trends for U.S. cereal? With the understanding that there's still a lot of challenges in the first quarter. But just trying to get a sense for when we could wake up one day and say, "Hey. You know what? Cereal's bottomed. And it may not be growing yet, but it's certainly -- the growth is at least accelerating off the bottom." Is that still a month, maybe 2 months away? Just wanted to get a rough idea of how you're seeing that.

偉大的。然後快速跟進。史蒂夫，我意識到水晶球現在是混濁的。但是你認為我們應該什麼時候開始期待美國穀物掃描儀趨勢出現拐點？了解到第一季度仍有很多挑戰。但只是想知道我們什麼時候可以有一天醒來並說，“嘿。你知道嗎？穀物已經見底了。它可能還沒有增長，但它肯定是——增長至少正在從底部加速。”那還有一個月，也許還有2個月嗎？只是想大致了解您的看法。

Yes. So where we are right now, obviously, we had a strike that lasted the -- almost the entirety of the fourth quarter. And so what you see there is the depletion of our inventory and our customers' inventory. That takes a little while to rebuild. The plants are fully back in business right now. We're delighted that our folks are back. But it's going to take the first quarter to build inventory. It's going to take into the second quarter to rebuild commercial activity.

是的。所以我們現在所處的位置，顯然，我們的罷工持續了 - 幾乎整個第四季度。所以你看到的是我們庫存和客戶庫存的消耗。這需要一點時間來重建。這些工廠現在已完全恢復營業。我們很高興我們的家人回來了。但要在第一季度建立庫存。第二季度將需要重建商業活動。

So think about it as 2 halves. The first half of the year, we'll see the continued pressure in U.S. Cereal. In the second half, you should see some nice growth in our U.S. Cereal business. And so that's really -- I would think about it as a tale of 2 halves. The first half is the reparations necessary and the second half is the rebuilding of commercial activation, customer programs, commercial activity that will see us getting back to growth.

所以把它想像成兩半。今年上半年，我們將看到美國穀物的持續壓力。下半年，您應該會看到我們的美國穀物業務有一些不錯的增長。所以這真的是——我認為它是一個兩半的故事。前半部分是必要的賠償，後半部分是重建商業活動、客戶計劃和商業活動，這將使我們恢復增長。

Our next question is from David Palmer from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Palmer。

Steve, if you had adequate inventory and normalized advertising and promotion levels for cereal, how much higher do you think your organic revenue growth estimate would have been for 2022? Just trying to isolate how you're thinking about that as a drag.

史蒂夫，如果你有足夠的庫存和標準化的穀物廣告和促銷水平，你認為你對 2022 年有機收入增長的估計會高多少？只是試圖隔離你如何認為這是一個拖累。

David, difficult question to answer. It's obviously a hypothetical, but you can see what's happened to our U.S. Cereal performance. We wouldn't have been down 24%, right? And so I think you'd look at it and say we'd be down or up in a plus 1%, minus 1% type of range. We're going to lap that in the second half of next year, as I was just saying. We're going to rebuild in the first half and grow in the second half.

大衛，很難回答的問題。這顯然是一個假設，但你可以看到我們的美國穀物表現發生了什麼。我們不會下跌 24%，對吧？因此，我認為您會看到它並說我們會在正 1%、負 1% 的範圍內下跌或上漲。正如我剛才所說，我們將在明年下半年完成這項工作。我們將在上半年重建並在下半年成長。

But clearly, it affected our results in the fourth quarter without a doubt. And that's why we're so pleased to be able to post the type of performance despite -- again, the entirety of the fourth quarter, we had a labor strike. The rest of the portfolio stepped up in such a meaningful way to be able to deliver against our guidance despite this unexpected circumstance, I think, really shows 2 things.

但顯然，它毫無疑問地影響了我們第四季度的業績。這就是為什麼我們很高興能夠發布這種類型的表現，儘管——再一次，整個第四季度，我們都進行了罷工。我認為，儘管出現這種意外情況，但投資組合的其餘部分以如此有意義的方式加強了我們的指導，這確實表明了兩件事。

It shows the incredible strength of the portfolio, and it's a reminder to all of us that when you hear Kellogg, you think cereal, right? But we're so much more than a cereal company. This business, U.S. Cereal, North American cereal, is less than 20% of our business. And what you saw is the greater than 20% of the emerging markets business performing, the snacks business I was just talking about performing, all of our international businesses performing very well to overcome what was -- could have been a debilitating strike, but wasn't.

它顯示了產品組合的驚人實力，並提醒我們所有人，當您聽到家樂氏時，您會想到穀物，對嗎？但我們不僅僅是一家穀物公司。這項業務，美國穀物，北美穀物，不到我們業務的 20%。你所看到的是超過 20% 的新興市場業務表現出色，我剛才談到的零食業務表現出色，我們所有的國際業務表現都非常出色，克服了過去——可能是一場令人衰弱的罷工，但不。

Yes. No, I think you -- point taken. And I think, of course, this is going to be, God willing, easy comparisons for 2023 for that business.

是的。不，我認為你- 點了。我認為，當然，上帝保佑，這將是該業務在 2023 年的簡單比較。

I wanted to ask you on gross margins. Just looking back to 2019, is that -- what do you think is a normalized gross margin for this company after you get past some of these more acute COVID-related supply chain costs? The strike and fire impact ends, and pricing catches up. Is 2019 levels at 33.5% to 34%, is that the type of level that this company should operate in longer term?

我想問你毛利率。回顧 2019 年，您認為這家公司的正常毛利率是多少？罷工和火災影響結束，價格也隨之而來。 2019 年的水平是 33.5% 到 34%，這是否是這家公司應該長期運營的水平類型？

Yes. Absolutely. I think longer term, that would -- we'd want to get back to the pre-pandemic levels of gross margin. I think you saw in quarter 4 a further deterioration in our gross margin from quarter 3. I think a lot of the factors of quarter 3 were still at play in quarter 4 in terms of commodity inflation, in terms of supply bottlenecks and shortages. And of course, the strike had a significant impact on our margins in quarter 4. And so the deterioration between quarter 3 and quarter 4 was largely due to the strike. I think you're going to continue to see that persist in -- particularly in quarter 1, but into quarter 2 as we rebuild inventory. There are carryover costs of the strike that will flow through into quarter 1 as well.

是的。絕對地。我認為從長遠來看，這將——我們希望回到大流行前的毛利率水平。我認為您在第 4 季度看到我們的毛利率比第 3 季度進一步惡化。我認為在商品通脹、供應瓶頸和短缺方面，第 3 季度的許多因素在第 4 季度仍在發揮作用。當然，罷工對我們第 4 季度的利潤率產生了重大影響。因此，第 3 季度和第 4 季度之間的惡化主要是由於罷工。我認為您將繼續看到這種情況持續存在 - 特別是在第一季度，但隨著我們重建庫存，到第二季度。罷工的結轉成本也將流入第一季度。

And so I think, from a '22 standpoint, again, I think similar to what Steve mentioned on cereal, even on gross margins, it'll be kind of a tale of 2 halves. I think the first half, we'll continue to see the pressure that we saw in the second half of 2021. So you'll see a similar trend in 2022 first half. And then in the second half, we should see our margins start to improve, particularly in quarter 4, as we lap the impact of the fire and the strike.

所以我認為，從 22 世紀的角度來看，我認為類似於史蒂夫提到的穀物食品，即使是毛利率，這也將是一個兩半的故事。我認為上半年，我們將繼續看到我們在 2021 年下半年看到的壓力。所以你會在 2022 年上半年看到類似的趨勢。然後在下半場，我們應該會看到我們的利潤率開始提高，尤其是在第 4 季度，因為我們已經承受了火災和罷工的影響。

I think where we'll end up for -- on 2022 overall, hard to predict. I think it'll depend a little bit on the supply chain environment. But once you go past 2022, I think from a strategic standpoint, we'd absolutely want to get back to pre-pandemic levels of margins. And that's the focus of all the teams around the world.

我認為我們將在 2022 年總體上最終走向何方，這很難預測。我認為這將在一定程度上取決於供應鏈環境。但是，一旦過了 2022 年，我認為從戰略角度來看，我們絕對希望回到大流行前的利潤率水平。這也是全球所有團隊關注的焦點。

Our next question comes from Andrew Lazar from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

I guess, Steve and Amit, I'm trying to get a sense of how you see the balance between gross margin and SG&A sort of playing out for the year. I guess, more specifically, would you anticipate somewhat of a pullback on marketing spend really more just in light of sort of the current cereal supply challenges? I'm trying to get a better sense of, I guess, how much the company is planning on sort of needing to lean into SG&A to hit full year targets for this year, given where gross margins could come in.

我想，史蒂夫和阿米特，我想了解你們如何看待今年毛利率和 SG&A 之間的平衡。我想，更具體地說，鑑於當前穀物供應面臨的挑戰，您是否會預計營銷支出會有所回落？我想，我想更好地了解公司計劃在多大程度上需要依靠 SG&A 來實現今年的全年目標，因為毛利率可以進入。

Yes. I think, Andrew, like I said on gross margins, we'll see pressure in the first half. We'll see improvement in the second half. And again, there's obviously a little bit of variability, depending on how the environment pans out.

是的。我認為，安德魯，就像我在毛利率上所說的那樣，我們會在上半年看到壓力。我們將在下半年看到改善。再一次，顯然有一點點可變性，這取決於環境如何發展。

On SG&A, right now, our thinking -- our planning stance is a modest increase in SG&A for 2022. And so A&P, we'd expect it to be broadly flattish as the restoration of support behind the brands that were supply disrupted is gradual. So as we rebuild inventory, as we rebuild service, we will start rebuilding commercial activation in line with that. And so that will play through in the first half.

關於 SG&A，目前，我們的想法是——我們的計劃立場是 2022 年 SG&A 適度增加。因此，A&P 預計它將大致持平，因為供應中斷的品牌背後的支持恢復是漸進的。因此，當我們重建庫存時，當我們重建服務時，我們將開始重建商業活動。所以這將在上半場發揮作用。

And then I think from an overhead standpoint, there will be a slight increase. I mean, we are lapping an unusual 2021, where the pandemic basically persisted for the full year. And so we had reduced travel. We had reduced -- spend on meetings. There were a couple of onetime items. So overhead versus that base is -- you'd expect a modest increase in overheads.

然後我認為從開銷的角度來看，會略有增加。我的意思是，我們正在經歷一個不同尋常的 2021 年，大流行基本上持續了一整年。所以我們減少了旅行。我們減少了會議開支。有幾個一次性項目。因此，與該基數相比，開銷是-您預計開銷會適度增加。

And then just briefly, Steve, I seem to remember, I think it was the very beginning of 2020, pre-pandemic, when Kellogg gave guidance for the coming year. It was along the lines of, obviously, snacking and international, the trend line there, even then was really very good. And it's obviously only gotten better since then.

然後簡單地說，史蒂夫，我似乎記得，我認為那是 2020 年初，大流行前，家樂氏為來年提供了指導。顯然，它是沿著零食和國際的路線，那裡的趨勢線，即使在那時也非常好。從那時起，情況顯然只會變得更好。

And the thinking was, hey, 2020 is going to be the year we've got to really invest in this developed markets cereal business to sort of get it to a more sort of stable to maybe slightly growing kind of pace sustainably. And that was the year Kellogg was going to kind of do what was needed to sort of make that happen. And then, of course, all bets were off given -- the pandemic came about. And then I realize near-term, job #1 is let's get product back into the hands of retailers and consumers. Let's get our shelf space back.

當時的想法是，嘿，2020 年將是我們必須真正投資於這個發達市場的穀物業務的一年，以使其達到一種更加穩定甚至可能略微可持續增長的速度。那一年，家樂氏將採取必要的措施來實現這一目標。然後，當然，所有的賭注都落空了——大流行來了。然後我意識到短期內，工作#1 是讓我們將產品重新交到零售商和消費者手中。讓我們拿回我們的貨架空間。

But if we take sort of the strike and recent events sort of out, if we look back to where you thought that cereal business was then and what it needed, once you're back up to speed on inventory and on the shelf, I guess, where would you say that business is in terms of sort of taking some of this recent stuff out of the picture? Is there still a necessary sort of level of investment beyond to sort of get it to the right place? Or do we not know because so much has happened in the last 2 years, that we really can't go back to what the sort of the commentary was then? If you get my question.

但是，如果我們把罷工和最近的事件排除在外，如果我們回顧一下你認為穀物業務當時的情況以及它需要什麼，一旦你恢復庫存和貨架上的速度，我猜，你會說業務是在什麼地方把這些最近的東西從圖片中剔除？除了把它帶到正確的地方之外，是否還有必要的投資水平？還是我們不知道，因為過去兩年發生了太多事情，我們真的無法回到當時的那種評論？如果你得到我的問題。

Yes. I do get your question. I think we were on the road to really good recovery in cereal. And if you look at the underlying health of the big brands, you could see that. And even today, if you look at the brands that we've been able to restore, look at Froot Loops, for example, it's performing very well relative to the rest of the category.

是的。我明白你的問題。我認為我們正走在穀物恢復良好的道路上。如果你看看大品牌的潛在健康狀況，你就會看到這一點。即使在今天，如果你看看我們已經能夠恢復的品牌，看看 Froot Loops，例如，它相對於其他類別的表現非常好。

And we believe, as I said earlier, it's going to be a tale of 2 halves. But when we get to the second half, we feel good about our cereal and we feel good about our North American cereal's performance inside the portfolio. And as we've said even before 2020, we don't need cereal to be a growth business, we needed it to be stable, and we're very confident that we will get it into stability. And if you think about the back half of the year we're in right now, you're going to see that. And that's in our guidance, and we're confident about that.

我們相信，正如我之前所說，這將是一個兩半的故事。但是當我們進入下半年時，我們對我們的穀物感覺良好，我們對我們北美穀物在產品組合中的表現感覺良好。正如我們甚至在 2020 年之前所說的那樣，我們不需要穀物成為增長業務，我們需要它保持穩定，我們非常有信心讓它穩定下來。如果你想想我們現在所處的下半年，你就會看到這一點。這是我們的指導方針，我們對此充滿信心。

And then when you think about even as far forward as into 2023 and the beginning of '23, we're going to be lapping the first quarter of this year. So we see turning the corner at the half year as the beginning of a very, very robust, balanced growth for us, and we don't see cereal holding us back.

然後，當您考慮到 2023 年和 23 年初時，我們將在今年第一季度結束。因此，我們認為半年的轉折是我們非常、非常強勁、平衡增長的開始，我們認為穀物不會阻礙我們。

Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

Just building on that conversation a little bit further. It sounds like you think you can restore trade inventories by mid-year. But how long does it take so you can fully restore market shares? Factoring in the need to perhaps earn back some shelf space that you've likely lost here entering calendar '22. Is that achievable by the end of the calendar year? Or is that -- does that also bleed into '23 in terms of the market share restoration?

只是在對話的基礎上再進一步。聽起來您認為您可以在年中之前恢復貿易庫存。但是需要多長時間才能完全恢復市場份額？考慮到可能需要重新獲得一些您在進入日曆 '22 時可能在此處丟失的貨架空間。這在日曆年年底之前可以實現嗎？或者是——就市場份額恢復而言，這是否也會影響到 23 年？

We will see market share restoration -- it'll be different across brands, right? We're focusing first on our biggest brands. And then obviously, we have a number of smaller brands in the portfolio that will be not as high a priority in terms of rebuilding inventory and commercial activity.

我們將看到市場份額的恢復——不同品牌的情況會有所不同，對吧？我們首先專注於我們最大的品牌。然後很明顯，我們在產品組合中有許多較小的品牌，它們在重建庫存和商業活動方面的優先級並不高。

So you'll see us -- you should see us regaining market share in the second half of the year, as I said earlier, just as we regain momentum. Hard to give a market share forecast of where we'll be at certain points, but we are bound and determined to restore this business, restore our TDPs, restore all of our commercial activity, and again, in the second half of the year show real momentum and exit the year with very strong momentum across the entirety of our portfolio, including our North American cereal business.

所以你會看到我們——正如我之前所說，你應該看到我們在下半年重新獲得市場份額，就像我們重新獲得動力一樣。很難對我們在某些時候的市場份額進行預測，但我們有義務並決心恢復這項業務，恢復我們的 TDP，恢復我們所有的商業活動，並再次在下半年展示真正的勢頭，並在我們整個投資組合（包括我們的北美穀物業務）中以非常強勁的勢頭退出今年。

Okay. Very good. And then, Amit, if I could, just maybe a little bit more -- just diving into the nuts and bolts of the outlook. Just any perspective you have on coverage on current cost inflation? Just visibility as you enter the year, where you are in terms of price implementation relative to that inflation. Is there a need for more pricing? How are you thinking about that?

好的。很好。然後，阿米特，如果可以的話，可能會多一點——只是深入研究前景的具體細節。您對當前成本通脹的報導有何看法？進入年份時的可見性，相對於通貨膨脹的價格執行情況。是否需要更多定價？你是怎麼想的？

And then if you could, just how that nets out. Obviously, the first half, second half commentary you gave makes clear intuitive sense. But can you help frame that a bit further, maybe in terms of just rough estimation of the percentage of earnings you're expecting in the first half versus second half, just to give us order of magnitude?

然後，如果可以的話，那是如何解決的。顯然，你給出的上半場、下半場的解說都具有明顯的直觀意義。但是您能否進一步說明這一點，也許只是粗略估計您在上半年與下半年的預期收益百分比，只是為了給我們一個數量級？

Yes. So I think in terms of inflation, I'll start there. It's continued to accelerate, and we've seen that through '21. So we are expecting double-digit inflation in 2022, and bulk of it is market-driven. So I think that's our planning stance.

是的。所以我認為就通貨膨脹而言，我將從那裡開始。它繼續加速，我們已經看到了 21 年。因此，我們預計 2022 年將出現兩位數的通脹，其中大部分是市場驅動的。所以我認為這是我們的規劃立場。

We're seeing inflation in ingredients and packaging, oil, corn, wheat; and on the packaging side, cans, cartons. So we're seeing broad-based inflation across our ingredients. We're about 70% hedged on our exchange-traded commodities. So where we can hedge, we are at around a 70% hedge. So that's kind of typical of where we are at this time of the year.

我們看到配料和包裝、油、玉米、小麥出現通貨膨脹；在包裝方面，罐頭，紙箱。因此，我們看到我們的成分存在廣泛的通貨膨脹。我們在交易所交易的商品中對沖了大約 70%。因此，在我們可以對沖的地方，我們的對沖率約為 70%。這就是我們每年這個時候所處的典型情況。

We will look to cover the gross margin impact of all the market-related pricing -- inflation through our productivity initiatives, through our revenue growth management initiatives.

我們將通過我們的生產力計劃，通過我們的收入增長管理計劃來涵蓋所有與市場相關的定價對毛利率的影響——通貨膨脹。

I think from a supply chain bottleneck standpoint, I think we've talked a little bit of the carryover impact of the strike. So that's going to play out in quarter 1 and moderate into quarter 2. So that's going to impact the first half margins for sure.

我認為從供應鏈瓶頸的角度來看，我認為我們已經談到了罷工的結轉影響。所以這將在第一季度出現，並在第二季度緩和。所以這肯定會影響上半年的利潤率。

And then the environment itself, that's hard to predict. But I think what we've assumed is that it'll continue to be a challenging supply chain environment into the first half and then moderate into the second half.

然後是環境本身，這很難預測。但我認為我們的假設是，到上半年，供應鏈環境仍將是一個充滿挑戰的環境，然後到下半年會有所緩和。

I think when you put all of those assumptions together, right, and kind of look at the first half, second half, it's -- obviously, the earnings would be second half-weighted compared to the first half. And then I think from a laps standpoint, obviously, quarter 4 will be our easiest lap when we start lapping the impact of the fire and the strike. So that's broadly the shape of the year.

我認為當你把所有這些假設放在一起時，對，看看上半年，下半年，很明顯，與上半年相比，下半年的收益將是加權的。然後我認為從圈數的角度來看，顯然，當我們開始對火災和罷工的影響進行圈測時，第 4 季度將是我們最輕鬆的一圈。所以這大致是今年的形狀。

Our next question is from Alexia Howard from Alliance Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alliance Bernstein 的 Alexia Howard。

So a couple of questions. I noticed that the price/mix growth in AMEA is still incredibly high. I think it was 18% or so this quarter on top of, I think, 10% or so last year. The volumes are obviously down but not down too much, maybe down double digits over a 2-year period. I'm just wondering what's going on in the region. Is it cutting out very low-priced products to get that price/mix growth, so it's more of a mix effect? Or is there something else happening there? And then I have a follow-up.

所以有幾個問題。我注意到 AMEA 的價格/組合增長仍然非常高。我認為本季度是 18% 左右，而去年是 10% 左右。交易量明顯下降，但沒有下降太多，可能在 2 年內下降兩位數。我只是想知道該地區發生了什麼。它是否會削減價格非常低的產品以獲得價格/組合增長，所以它更像是一種混合效應？還是那裡發生了其他事情？然後我有一個跟進。

Yes. I think, Alexia, the driver for that is really -- I mean, we're seeing commodity inflation, we're seeing currency inflation. So I think a lot of that is driven by pricing. And if you look at markets, Multipro is a good example, where we've -- we're taking significant pricing, double-digit pricing, multiple rounds of that, to cover the currency and the commodity. I'd say elasticity has been better than expected. So the elasticity has held up and volumes have held up.

是的。我認為，Alexia，真正的驅動因素是——我的意思是，我們正在看到商品通脹，我們正在看到貨幣通脹。所以我認為其中很大一部分是由定價驅動的。如果你看看市場，Multipro 就是一個很好的例子，我們已經 - 我們正在採取顯著的定價，兩位數的定價，多輪，以涵蓋貨幣和商品。我會說彈性比預期的要好。因此，彈性得以維持，交易量也得以維持。

What you're seeing in some of the volume declines is also the impact of supply constraints. I think that region in particular has been impacted by a shortage of containers. We do ship a lot of product. Pringles is a good example. We manufacture that in Malaysia and ship it across the region. And certainly, the shortage of ocean containers has impacted our ability to supply. And likewise, I think there have been just restrictions, lockdown restrictions, on some of our facilities that have impacted supply and service. So that's been a dynamic indeed from a volume standpoint.

你在一些銷量下降中看到的也是供應限制的影響。我認為該地區尤其受到集裝箱短缺的影響。我們確實運送了很多產品。品客薯片就是一個很好的例子。我們在馬來西亞製造並在整個地區運送。當然，海運集裝箱的短缺影響了我們的供應能力。同樣，我認為我們的一些設施受到了限制、封鎖限制，影響了供應和服務。所以從數量的角度來看，這確實是一種動態。

But overall, I'd say over a 2-year period, terrific price/mix performance by the region. And broadly, volumes have held up.

但總的來說，我想說的是，在 2 年的時間裡，該地區的價格/組合表現非常出色。從廣義上講，交易量一直保持不變。

Very helpful. And then a quick follow-up. I noticed on the Morningstar Farms graph that the category and the brand have slowed down fairly meaningfully in the fourth quarter. Could you describe what's happening there, and what that means for the Incognito part of the brand?

很有幫助。然後快速跟進。我在晨星農場的圖表上註意到，該類別和品牌在第四季度的增速相當顯著。你能描述一下那裡發生了什麼，以及這對品牌的隱身部分意味著什麼？

Yes. Alexia, what I'd say is it's helpful to look at the whole category on a 2-year basis as well because what we're seeing is obviously a huge influx of new distribution and new entrants which drove outsized demand and outsized sales in certain areas.

是的。 Alexia，我想說的是，在 2 年的基礎上查看整個類別也是有幫助的，因為我們所看到的顯然是大量新分銷和新進入者的湧入，這在某些情況下推動了超大的需求和超大的銷售領域。

And there's a big difference between refrigerated and frozen as well. And what you're seeing is the refrigerated segment has decelerated on a 2-year CAGR basis, and it's because of all these, as I said, new entrants, new trial and so forth shaking out. In the frozen side of the business, we're still very pleased about the way Morningstar Farms is performing. And we see what's happening in refrigerated as a lot of shakeout. You typically see this in new categories with lots of new entrants, lots of trial, not always the highest quality items making their way on shelf.

冷藏和冷凍之間也有很大的區別。你所看到的是冷藏部門已經在 2 年的複合年增長率基礎上減速，正如我所說，這是因為所有這些，新進入者、新試驗等等都在震動。在業務凍結的一面，我們仍然對晨星農場的表現感到非常滿意。我們看到冷藏中發生的事情是大量的震盪。您通常會在新類別中看到這一點，其中有很多新進入者、大量試驗，但並不總是最優質的商品上架。

And so I think you'll see that shake out. And we do think that over time, refrigerated has an opportunity to be successful. But we're much more pleased about how we're doing in the frozen segment.

所以我認為你會看到這一點。我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，冷藏有機會取得成功。但我們對我們在冷凍領域的表現感到更加高興。

Our next question is from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

You touched on some of the elasticities you're seeing now. And just curious if you could give a sense of what some of your planning assumptions are. Do you expect that they've been relatively good? Do you expect that to hold? What's in your forecast for how that plays out?

你談到了你現在看到的一些彈性。只是好奇您是否可以了解您的一些計劃假設是什麼。你認為他們的表現相對較好嗎？你認為它會成立嗎？您對結果的預測是什麼？

Yes, Michael. So what we've seen so far is much better than historical elasticity performance. And so much more inelastic. We don't forecast for that to continue. Obviously, inflation continues to rage on. We are very pleased with the price/mix that we've seen, but we are forecasting a more return-to-normal elasticities as the year progresses.

是的，邁克爾。所以到目前為止我們所看到的比歷史彈性表現要好得多。而且沒有彈性。我們預計這種情況不會繼續。顯然，通貨膨脹繼續肆虐。我們對我們所看到的價格/組合非常滿意，但我們預計隨著時間的推移，彈性將更加恢復正常。

I don't know, Amit, if you want to add.

我不知道，阿米特，如果你想添加。

No. I think -- yes.

不，我認為——是的。

That's really helpful. And just a quick follow-up. You mentioned in your -- early in your release and several times on the call, the balance sheet and financial flexibility you have and dry powder. What are your priorities as you think about M&A, either geographically or by category? Is it as kind of higher priority as that sounds? Can you just give us some thoughts on how you're thinking about that?

這真的很有幫助。只是一個快速的跟進。你在你的 - 在你發布的早期和幾次電話會議中提到你擁有的資產負債表和財務靈活性以及乾粉。在考慮併購時，無論是地域還是類別，您的優先事項是什麼？它是否像聽起來那樣具有更高的優先級？你能給我們一些關於你是如何考慮的想法嗎？

Yes. Definitely, Michael. So we're very pleased with the strength of the balance sheet and the deleveraging that's happened over the course of the last couple of years, and it does give us opportunities and optionality. And I think if you look at our portfolio and what's working in the portfolio, you could see us -- that would be good hunting ground. So think snacking, think wellness, think emerging markets. And if we found an opportunity to add shareholder value, we would certainly take a good, hard look at it. Always, though, being very disciplined on price.

是的。毫無疑問，邁克爾。因此，我們對資產負債表的實力和過去幾年發生的去槓桿化感到非常滿意，它確實為我們提供了機會和選擇權。而且我認為，如果您查看我們的投資組合以及投資組合中的工作原理，您會看到我們——那將是一個很好的獵場。所以想想零食，想想健康，想想新興市場。如果我們找到了增加股東價值的機會，我們肯定會認真審視它。不過，總是在價格上非常自律。

Operator, we might have time for one more question.

接線員，我們可能還有時間再問一個問題。

We will take our last question from Rob Dickerson from Jefferies.

我們將回答 Jefferies 的 Rob Dickerson 提出的最後一個問題。

Great. Two quick questions. I guess just to touch on the bars category. Obviously, it's been pressured perhaps through the pandemic to some extent. I don't know, Steve, just kind of any quick thoughts in terms of potential growth recovery as mobility increases and kind of how you're thinking that -- thinking about that through '22. And I have been -- a quick follow-up.

偉大的。兩個快速的問題。我想只是觸及酒吧類別。顯然，它可能在某種程度上受到了大流行的壓力。我不知道，史蒂夫，只是在流動性增加時潛在的增長恢復方面有任何快速的想法，以及你是如何思考的 - 考慮到 22 年。我一直在 - 快速跟進。

Yes, Rob. So when you look at the bars category, you can see it is really highly correlated to occasions. And so I don't think this was your question, but if you look at Rice Krispies Treats, which are bars, doing incredibly well. You look at Nutri-Grain doing very well. You look at RX, it's back to growth, but not the type of growth that we had seen in the past. And that's due to occasions.

是的，羅伯。因此，當您查看酒吧類別時，您會發現它確實與場合高度相關。所以我不認為這是你的問題，但如果你看看Rice Krispies Treats，它們是酒吧，做得非常好。你看 Nutri-Grain 做得很好。你看看 RX，它恢復了增長，但不是我們過去看到的增長類型。這是由於場合。

I mean, I think I just saw something the other day where gym traffic is still down 40% from 2019 pre-pandemic. And that's a big occasion for RX, right? Throw a bunch of bars in the gym bag and off you go.

我的意思是，我想我前幾天剛看到健身房的人流量仍然比 2019 年大流行前下降了 40%。這對 RX 來說是一個重要的場合，對吧？把一堆酒吧扔進健身包裡，然後你就走了。

So we're seeing growth, but I think a lot of higher growth will depend on those types of occasions returning. And we are seeing the trend line is positive. We're seeing mobility start to increase. Omicron obviously set it back, but now we're seeing it potentially recover. And we'll see what happens in the spring. It's hard -- somebody mentioned the cloudy crystal ball, certainly cloudy to understand what's going to happen in the spring. But as those occasions return, we think RX and our other portfolio is well placed.

所以我們看到了增長，但我認為更高的增長將取決於這些類型的場合回歸。我們看到趨勢線是積極的。我們看到流動性開始增加。 Omicron 顯然將其退回，但現在我們看到它可能會恢復。我們將看看春天會發生什麼。很難——有人提到了多雲的水晶球，肯定是多雲的，以了解春天會發生什麼。但隨著這些場合的回歸，我們認為 RX 和我們的其他產品組合處於有利位置。

Okay. Fair enough. And then just on the organic sales growth guide. I know you don't always break out price, volume. But just wondering if there's any incremental clarity as to kind of -- for thinking, should pricing that we saw in Q4, let's say, which was -- price/mix at least, kind of close to 9%.

好的。很公平。然後只是有機銷售增長指南。我知道你並不總是打破價格，數量。但只是想知道是否有任何增量的清晰度——想想，我們在第四季度看到的定價，比如說——價格/組合至少接近 9%。

As we get through the year and then maybe factor in some increased promotional activity in the back half, should the market be expecting kind of a similar level of pricing, let's say, at least in the first half of the year? Or were there some kind of one-offs in Q4 that might cause that to decelerate?

隨著我們度過這一年，然後可能會考慮到下半年促銷活動的增加，市場是否應該期待類似的定價水平，比方說，至少在今年上半年？還是在第四季度有某種一次性措施可能導致其減速？

Yes. I think most of our, if not all, of our net sales growth for '22 would be driven by price/mix. So I think, as I mentioned, right, we're seeing double-digit inflation into '22. And so I think we're working through plans, both productivity as well as revenue growth management, to counter that and to hold margins. So you will see most of the sales being driven by price/mix. And again, our RGM activity will continue to be a focus into '22.

是的。我認為我們 22 年的大部分（如果不是全部）淨銷售額增長將由價格/組合驅動。所以我認為，正如我所提到的，是的，我們看到 22 年出現兩位數的通貨膨脹。所以我認為我們正在製定計劃，包括生產力和收入增長管理，以應對這種情況並保持利潤率。所以你會看到大部分銷售是由價格/組合驅動的。同樣，我們的 RGM 活動將繼續成為 22 年的重點。

Operator, I think we've hit our time limit. Thanks, everybody, for your interest. And if you have any follow-up questions, please do not hesitate to give us a call. Thank you.

接線員，我想我們已經到了時間限制。謝謝大家，您的興趣。如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時致電我們。謝謝你。

Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a lovely day.

謝謝大家加入今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路，度過愉快的一天。