江森自控 (JCI) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

江森自控召開電話會議討論 2024 財年第一季業績。 該公司已從網路中斷中恢復過來,並在新的一年看到了積極的跡象。 他們在數位建築解決方案平台和應用暖通空調業務方面表現良好,但在中國面臨挑戰。 該公司專注於卓越營運、簡化產品組合,並考慮非商業產品線的策略替代方案。 他們預計本財年下半年的利潤率將改善並實現成長。 他們對自己的未來以及為股東創造價值的能力充滿信心。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Johnson Controls First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded.

    早安,歡迎參加江森自控 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的活動正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Lucas, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁吉姆·盧卡斯 (Jim Lucas)。請繼續。

  • James C. Lucas - VP of IR

    James C. Lucas - VP of IR

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Johnson Controls' first quarter fiscal 2024 results.

    早安,感謝您參加我們的電話會議,討論江森自控 2024 財年第一季的業績。

  • The press release and related tables that were issued earlier this morning as well as the conference call slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at johnsoncontrols.com.

    今天早上早些時候發布的新聞稿和相關表格以及電話會議幻燈片演示可以在我們網站 johnsoncontrols.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

  • Joining me on the call today are Johnson Controls' Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, George Oliver; Chief Financial Officer, Olivier Leonetti, and newly appointed Chief Financial Officer, Marc Vandiepenbeeck.

    今天與我一起參加電話會議的是江森自控董事長兼執行長喬治‧奧利佛 (George Oliver);財務長 Olivier Leonetti 和新任命的財務長 Marc Vandiepenbeeck。

  • Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by forward-looking statements due to a variety of risks and uncertainties.

    在開始之前,讓我提醒您,在今天的演示中,我們將做出前瞻性陳述。由於各種風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述所示的結果有重大差異。

  • Please note that we assume no obligation to update these forward-looking statements even if actual results or future expectations change materially.

    請注意,即使實際結果或未來預期發生重大變化,我們也不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • Please refer to our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties in addition to the inherent limitations of such forward-looking statements.

    除了此類前瞻性陳述的固有限制之外,請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件,詳細討論這些風險和不確定性。

  • We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are contained in the schedules attached to our press release and in the appendix to this presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of Johnson Controls' website.

    我們也將參考某些非公認會計原則措施。這些非公認會計原則衡量標準與最直接可比較的公認會計原則衡量標準的調節包含在我們新聞稿所附的時間表和本簡報的附錄中,兩者都可以在江森自控網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • I will now turn the call over to George.

    我現在會把電話轉給喬治。

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on the call today.

    謝謝吉姆,大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

  • Now let's begin with Slide 3. We are gaining momentum as we exit the first quarter. Our team has been unbelievable in managing through the recent cyber disruption, which occurred early in the quarter. While it is challenging to comprehensively quantify the overall business impact as we recovered from the incident, we are back on track. In fact, over the course of the last 120 days since the cyber incident, we have connected with many of our key customers, solidifying already strong relationships and strengthening their trust and confidence in Johnson Controls. It is clear from their feedback that our value proposition continues to resonate, and customers believe in our products and services.

    現在讓我們從投影片 3 開始。隨著第一季的結束,我們的勢頭正在增強。我們的團隊在應對本季度初發生的最近網路中斷方面的表現令人難以置信。雖然從事件中恢復後全面量化整體業務影響具有挑戰性,但我們已回到正軌。事實上,在網路事件發生後的過去 120 天內,我們與許多重要客戶建立了聯繫,鞏固了業已牢固的關係,並增強了他們對江森自控的信任和信心。從他們的回饋中可以清楚看出,我們的價值主張繼續引起共鳴,客戶相信我們的產品和服務。

  • As we enter the new calendar year, we are seeing positive signs. During the quarter, we delivered solid first quarter results generally in line with our forecast. The fundamentals of our business are strong as we met expectations for sales, margins and adjusted EPS in the face of headwinds from the cyber disruption, ongoing weakness in global Residential HVAC and significant slowing in China. Olivier will discuss the details of our financials more specifically later in the call.

    當我們進入新的日曆年時,我們看到了積極的跡象。在本季度,我們交付了穩健的第一季業績,整體符合我們的預測。我們的業務基本面強勁,面對網路中斷​​、全球住宅暖通空調持續疲軟以及中國經濟大幅放緩等不利因素,我們滿足了銷售、利潤率和調整後每股收益的預期。奧利維爾將在稍後的電話會議中更具體地討論我們的財務細節。

  • Looking forward, we expect fiscal 2024 to return to more normalized seasonality in our businesses and the operating environment to be more in line with what we saw prior to the pandemic and recent supply chain disruptions. Our position of building a leading digital building solutions platform continues to be core to our strategy, and we are pleased with the strength of our Applied HVAC business especially as we serve the fast-growing data center market.

    展望未來,我們預計 2024 財年我們的業務將恢復更正常的季節性,營運環境將更符合我們在疫情和最近的供應鏈中斷之前所看到的情況。我們建構領先的數位建築解決方案平台的地位仍然是我們策略的核心,我們對應用 HVAC 業務的實力感到滿意,尤其是在我們服務於快速成長的資料中心市場的情況下。

  • We are updating our fiscal 2024 guidance today reducing the full year adjusted EPS range by $0.05, reflecting growing headwinds in China. Our commercially focused portfolio and long-cycle backlog-driven businesses, in addition to our record backlog, gives us more clarity of improvement as fiscal 2024 progresses.

    我們今天更新了 2024 財年指引,將全年調整後每股收益範圍降低了 0.05 美元,反映了中國日益增長的不利因素。隨著 2024 財年的進展,除了創紀錄的積壓之外,我們以商業為重點的投資組合和長週期積壓驅動的業務使我們的改進更加清晰。

  • Before we continue, I would like to take the time to thank Olivier for his partnership over the last few years and wish him the best of luck in the next chapter of his career. When Olivier informed me that he was taking a role outside the company, we implemented our internal succession plan and I am very pleased that Marc Vandiepenbeeck is assuming the role of CFO.

    在我們繼續之前,我想花時間感謝奧利維爾過去幾年的合作,並祝他在職業生涯的下一個篇章中一切順利。當奧利維爾告訴我他將在公司外部擔任職務時,我們實施了內部繼任計劃,我很高興馬克·範迪彭貝克 (Marc Vandiepenbeeck) 擔任首席財務官。

  • Marc has been with Johnson Controls for nearly 20 years with increasing responsibility in finance roles, including CFO of Building Solutions North America. Last year, we moved Marc into an operating role as President of EMEA/LA. Marc brings deep finance expertise and understanding of our customers, global markets and operational knowledge. I am confident that we will continue to build on the foundations already in place, and I look forward to partnering with Marc in his new role.

    Marc 在江森自控工作了近 20 年,擔任的財務職務不斷增加,其中包括北美建築解決方案財務長。去年,我們將 Marc 調任為歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯地區總裁,擔任營運職務。 Marc 帶來了深厚的金融專業知識以及對客戶、全球市場和營運知識的了解。我相信我們將繼續在現有的基礎上繼續發展,我期待在馬克的新職位上與他合作。

  • Now turning to Slide 4. I'd like to highlight the strong foundation of operational excellence at Johnson Controls and our value-creation framework. We are capturing the secular trends across sustainable and healthy buildings. We have the right strategy and operating system in place to create value for our shareholders. And as part of our commitment to disciplined capital allocation, we remain focused on deploying resources to the right opportunities.

    現在轉向投影片 4。我想強調江森自控卓越營運的堅實基礎以及我們的價值創造框架。我們正在捕捉永續和健康建築的長期趨勢。我們擁有正確的策略和作業系統來為股東創造價值。作為我們對嚴格資本配置承諾的一部分,我們仍然專注於將資源部署到正確的機會。

  • Our team has made great progress in the last 2 years, creating a digital services model and our investments have been a key enabler. The addition of FM:Systems gave us increased capabilities to serve our customers as they improve their workplace environment. Digital is a strong enabler to creating recurring revenue, retaining customers and supporting higher, sustainable service growth rates.

    我們的團隊在過去兩年中取得了巨大進步,創建了數位服務模型,而我們的投資是關鍵的推動因素。 FM:Systems 的加入增強了我們為客戶改善工作環境提供服務的能力。數位化是創造經常性收入、留住客戶和支持更高、可持續的服務成長率的強大推動力。

  • Within Service, we are changing the game from deploying a mechanical contractor to creating multiple options for our customers. We are increasing job size, improving margins and creating scalable solutions.

    在服務領域,我們正在改變遊戲規則,從部署機械承包商轉變為為客戶創造多種選擇。我們正在擴大工作規模、提高利潤並創建可擴展的解決方案。

  • In addition, we are maximizing value creation through digitally enabled offerings and accelerating our life cycle solutions entitlements across all of our domains. Our team's model has a strong foundation, and we will continue to accelerate the pace of change.

    此外,我們還透過數位化產品最大限度地創造價值,並加速我們在所有領域的生命週期解決方案權利。我們團隊的模式已經有了堅實的基礎,我們將繼續加快變革的步伐。

  • At the same time, we have successfully removed many layers of cost across the organization, but we know there is more work to be done. We serve an incredible market, and it is on us to capitalize on the opportunities in front of us. We will continue to simplify and standardize across our portfolio.

    同時,我們已經成功地消除了整個組織的多層成本,但我們知道還有更多的工作要做。我們服務於一個令人難以置信的市場,我們有責任充分利用眼前的機會。我們將繼續簡化和標準化我們的產品組合。

  • As we continue to focus on simplifying the company, we are always assessing opportunities to advance our transformation into a comprehensive solutions provider for commercial buildings. As part of the continuous evaluation of our portfolio, we are in the early stages of pursuing strategic alternatives of our noncommercial product lines in line with our objective to maximize value to our shareholders.

    在我們繼續專注於簡化公司的同時,我們始終在評估推動我們轉型為商業建築綜合解決方案提供者的機會。作為對我們產品組合持續評估的一部分,我們正處於尋求非商業產品線策略替代方案的早期階段,這符合我們為股東實現價值最大化的目標。

  • We are very excited about our future and are confident we are on the right path to simplify our portfolio, drive margin expansion, deliver consistent cash flow while serving our customers in the best possible way.

    我們對未來感到非常興奮,並相信我們正走在正確的道路上,以簡化我們的產品組合,推動利潤率擴張,提供穩定的現金流,同時以最佳方式為我們的客戶提供服務。

  • I will now turn the call over to Olivier to go through the financial details of the quarter. Olivier?

    我現在將把電話轉給奧利維爾,以了解本季的財務細節。奧利維爾?

  • Olivier Leonetti

    Olivier Leonetti

  • Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the summary on Slide 5. As George discussed at the beginning of the call, our team did an incredible job responding to the cyber incident. The disruptions we experienced during the quarter were factored into the guidance we provided last month.

    謝謝喬治,大家早安。讓我從幻燈片 5 的摘要開始。正如喬治在電話會議開始時所討論的那樣,我們的團隊在應對網路事件方面做得非常出色。我們在本季經歷的中斷已納入我們上個月提供的指導中。

  • Total revenue of $6.1 billion was flat year-over-year, while organic sales were down 1% as continued declines in global Residential HVAC and accelerated weakness in China's in-store business more than offset mid-single-digit growth in Service and continued growth in Applied HVAC.

    總收入為 61 億美元,與去年同期持平,而有機銷售額下降 1%,原因是全球住宅 HVAC 的持續下滑以及中國店內業務的加速疲軟,抵消了服務業務的中個位數增長和持續增長在應用暖通空調領域。

  • Segment margins declined 90 basis points to 12.8%, impacted by tough comps in our shorter-cycle Global Products business, coupled with ongoing weakness in China's macro environment.

    受短週期全球產品業務的嚴峻競爭以及中國宏觀環境持續疲軟的影響,該部門利潤率下降 90 個基點至 12.8%。

  • Adjusted EPS of $0.51 exceeded our guidance of $0.48 to $0.50 as we return to more normalized seasonality.

    隨著我們回歸更正常化的季節性,調整後每股收益 0.51 美元超出了我們 0.48 至 0.50 美元的指導。

  • The quarter was impacted by lost momentum from the cyber incident, accelerated weakness in China and tough comps in our Global Products business. Below the line, we saw headwinds from net financing charges due to higher interest rates and increased debt levels, in line with historical trends.

    該季度受到網路事件失去動力、中國加速疲軟以及全球產品業務艱難的影響。在線下,我們看到由於利率上升和債務水準增加而帶來的淨融資費用的阻力,這與歷史趨勢一致。

  • On the balance sheet, we ended the first quarter with approximately $1.8 billion in available cash and net debt increased to 2.2x, which is within our long-term target range of 2 to 2.5x. The elevated cash position was a direct result of proactive action to mitigate the potential impacts of the cyber incident on cash flow. Adjusted free cash flow improved $180 million year-over-year, and we anticipate further improvement as we progress through the fiscal year.

    在資產負債表上,我們第一季末的可用現金約為 18 億美元,淨債務增加至 2.2 倍,這在我們 2 至 2.5 倍的長期目標範圍內。現金部位增加是採取積極行動減輕網路事件對現金流潛在影響的直接結果。調整後的自由現金流年增了 1.8 億美元,我們預計隨著本財年的進展,情況將進一步改善。

  • Let's now discuss our segment results in more detail in Slide 6 through 8. Beginning on Slide 6, organic sales in our Global Products business declined 1% year-over-year with volume declines offsetting price.

    現在讓我們在幻燈片 6 到幻燈片 8 中更詳細地討論我們的部門業績。從幻燈片 6 開始,我們的全球產品業務的有機銷售額同比下降 1%,銷量下降抵消了價格下降。

  • Global Products saw continued strength in Commercial HVAC, which grew low single digits after growing low double digits in the comparable period 1 year ago. We have been investing in our Applied HVAC business for the last couple of years, deploying resources to align to more attractive opportunities, resulting in further share gains in calendar 2023.

    全球產品公司在商業暖通空調領域持續走強,繼一年前同期低點成長後,該領域出現低位個位數成長。過去幾年,我們一直在投資我們的應用 HVAC 業務,部署資源以抓住更具吸引力的機會,從而在 2023 年實現進一步的份額成長。

  • Fire & Security declined low single digits. We believe that the majority of the tough year-over-year comparisons in the shorter-cycle and direct business have bottomed out, and we should see a return to growth in calendar 2024.

    消防與安全下降了低個位數。我們認為,短週期和直接業務中大部分艱難的同比比較已經觸底,我們應該會在 2024 年看到成長的回歸。

  • Industrial Refrigeration had another strong quarter, growing over 35%, driven by EMEA/LA.

    在歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯的推動下,工業冷凍季度再次表現強勁,成長超過 35%。

  • Global Residential declined high single digits, driven by a greater than 20% decline in North America, which more than offset low single-digit growth in Rest of World. North America continues to face market softness, and we believe we have 1 more quarter with these challenges before the industry begins to see growth in the second half of the year. We're improving our North America market share and see momentum building.

    由於北美地區下降超過 20%,全球住宅銷量出現高個位數下降,這抵消了世界其他地區低個位數成長的影響。北美繼續面臨市場疲軟,我們相信在該行業下半年開始成長之前,我們還有 1 個季度面臨這些挑戰。我們正在提高北美市場份額,並看到勢頭正在增強。

  • Despite ongoing weaknesses in the European heat pump market, Rest of World benefited from strong growth in Japan. Our book-to-bill business continues to normalize with improved lead times, and our Global Products third-party backlog decreased 10% from the prior year to $2.3 billion.

    儘管歐洲熱泵市場持續疲軟,但世界其他地區仍受益於日本的強勁成長。我們的訂單到帳單業務繼續正常化,交貨時間有所縮短,我們的全球產品第三方積壓訂單比前一年減少了 10%,達到 23 億美元。

  • Adjusted segment EBITA margins declined 240 basis points to 17.9% as we benefited from insurance proceeds from a warehouse fire in the comparable period last year. We are beginning to see better cost absorption in our factory and expect Global Products margins to improve throughout the rest of the fiscal year.

    調整後的部門 EBITA 利潤率下降 240 個基點至 17.9%,因為我們受益於去年同期倉庫火災的保險收益。我們開始看到工廠更好地吸收成本,並預計全球產品利潤率在本財年剩餘時間內將有所改善。

  • Moving to Slide 7 to discuss Building Solutions performance. Orders increased 1% as mid-single-digit order growth in North America and EMEA/LA was more than offset by a greater than 30% decline in APAC, which was primarily the result of further deterioration of the China installed business. As the China real estate market continues to weaken and the outlook remains mixed, we have begun to optimize our go-to-market strategy and have become more selective in the business we pursue.

    轉到投影片 7 來討論建置解決方案的效能。訂單成長了 1%,北美和歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯的中個位數訂單成長被亞太地區超過 30% 的下降所抵消,這主要是由於中國安裝業務進一步惡化造成的。隨著中國房地產市場持續疲軟且前景依然複雜,我們已開始優化我們的市場策略,並對我們所從事的業務變得更加挑剔。

  • Organic sales were flat in the quarter against a tougher comparison of low double-digit growth in the prior year quarter. Install declined mid-single digits and more than offset mid-single-digit growth in Service.

    本季有機銷售額持平,與去年同期的低兩位數成長相比更為嚴格。安裝量下降了中個位數,遠遠抵消了服務中個位數的成長。

  • Segment margins declined 10 basis points as accelerated weakness in China offset positive mix in the quarter.

    由於中國的加速疲軟抵消了本季的積極組合,該部門利潤率下降了 10 個基點。

  • Building Solutions backlog remains at record levels, growing 7% to $12.1 billion. Service backlog is flat and install backlog grew 8% year-over-year.

    建築解決方案積壓訂單仍處於創紀錄水平,成長 7%,達到 121 億美元。服務積壓持平,安裝積壓年增 8%。

  • Let's discuss the Building Solutions performance by region on Slide 8. Orders in North America increased 6% as we continued to see strong demand across our HVAC & Controls platform, growing high single digits following heightened growth in the comparative period a year ago. Overall, there was broad-based demand in our health care, data center, government and education sectors. Install orders increased 9% year-over-year with solid growth in both new construction and retrofit.

    讓我們討論幻燈片8 中按地區劃分的建築解決方案績效。由於我們繼續看到HVAC 和控制平台的強勁需求,北美訂單增長了6%,繼去年同期的大幅增長之後,訂單出現了高個位數增長。整體而言,我們的醫療保健、資料中心、政府和教育部門有廣泛的需求。安裝訂單年增 9%,新建和改造項目均穩定成長。

  • Sales in North America were up 4% organically with strong growth across our HVAC & Controls platform, up low teens year-over-year. Our Install business grew 4% with continued momentum in new construction up over 25% year-over-year. Organic sales in Service grew 4% in the quarter, benefiting from high single-digit growth in our recurring revenue contracts.

    北美地區的銷售額有機成長了 4%,我們的 HVAC 和控制平台實現了強勁成長,比去年同期成長了十幾位數。我們的安裝業務成長了 4%,新建築業務繼續保持同比增長超過 25% 的勢頭。本季服務部門的有機銷售額成長了 4%,這得益於我們經常性收入合約的高個位數成長。

  • Segment margins expanded 20 basis points year-over-year to 11.5%, driven by the continued execution of higher-margin backlog and strength in our higher-margin Service business.

    由於高利潤積壓訂單的持續執行以及高利潤服務業務的實力,該部門利潤率同比增長 20 個基點至 11.5%。

  • Total backlog ended the quarter at $8.4 billion, up 11% year-over-year.

    本季末未完成訂單總額達 84 億美元,年增 11%。

  • In EMEA/LA, orders were up 5% with continued strength in Service, up 12%. Demand in institutional gained momentum in the quarter, growing 50% year-over-year, driven by public projects in Europe. Industrial Refrigeration had another strong quarter with greater than 45% growth.

    在歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯,訂單成長 5%,服務持續強勁,成長 12%。在歐洲公共計畫的推動下,本季機構需求成長勢頭強勁,較去年同期成長 50%。工業冷凍季度表現又強勁,成長超過 45%。

  • Sales in EMEA/LA grew 2% organically, led by high single-digit growth in Service with high single-digit growth from our recurring contracts and strong double-digit growth in our shorter-cycle transactional business. Applied Commercial HVAC and Fire & Security grew low single digits within the quarter.

    歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯的銷售額有機成長了2%,這主要得益於服務領域的高個位數成長、我們的經常性合約帶來的高個位數成長以及我們的短週期交易業務的強勁兩位數增長。應用商業暖通空調和消防與安全業務在本季實現低個位數成長。

  • Segment EBITA margins of 7.7% remained flat as the growth in Service was offset by the conversion of lower-margin install backlog. We anticipate strong margin expansion in EMEA/LA through the remainder of the fiscal year.

    由於服務業務的成長被利潤率較低的安裝積壓訂單的轉換所抵消,該部門的 EBITA 利潤率為 7.7%,保持穩定。我們預計在本財年剩餘時間內,歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯的利潤率將強勁成長。

  • Backlog was up 10% year-over-year to $2.4 billion.

    積壓訂單年增 10%,達到 24 億美元。

  • In Asia Pacific, as I mentioned earlier, orders declined 31% due to further deterioration of the China install business, and we are being more strategic in the deals we select. Overall, APAC set of orders grew low single digits, driven by high single-digit growth in our shorter-term transactional business.

    在亞太地區,正如我之前提到的,由於中國安裝業務的進一步惡化,訂單下降了 31%,我們在選擇交易時更具策略性。整體而言,受我們短期交易業務高個位數成長的推動,亞太地區訂單成長低個位數。

  • Sales in the Asia Pacific declined 21% as the installation business was impacted primarily by accelerated weakness in China. Our Service business grew 5% in the quarter. The weakness in China's install business was broad-based across the overall portfolio with HVAC & Controls down high-teens and Fire & Security down 20%.

    由於安裝業務主要受到中國市場加速疲軟的影響,亞太地區的銷售額下降了 21%。我們的服務業務本季成長了 5%。中國安裝業務的疲軟在整個產品組合中廣泛存在,其中暖通空調與控制領域下降了十幾個百分點,消防與安全領域下降了 20%。

  • Segment EBITA margins declined 140 basis points to 9.1% as weakness in China offset positive mix in our Service business.

    由於中國市場的疲軟抵消了我們服務業務的積極組合,該部門的 EBITA 利潤率下降了 140 個基點至 9.1%。

  • Backlog of $1.3 billion declined 21% year-over-year.

    積壓訂單金額為 13 億美元,較去年同期下降 21%。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Marc to discuss our second quarter and fiscal year 2024 guidance. Marc?

    我現在想將電話轉給 Marc,討論我們第二季和 2024 財年的指導。馬克?

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • Thank you, Olivier, and good morning, everyone. Before I discuss our guidance on Slide 9, I want to say how excited I am for the opportunity to partner with George as we simplify and transform Johnson Controls into a comprehensive solution provider for commercial buildings.

    謝謝奧利維爾,大家早安。在討論我們對幻燈片 9 的指導之前,我想說,在我們簡化江森自控並將其轉變為商業建築綜合解決方案提供商的過程中,我對有機會與 George 合作感到非常興奮。

  • We exited our first quarter with the cyber incident behind us, and the momentum we lost at the start of the year has recovered. We entered the second quarter with a backlog that remains at historical levels, a healthy pipeline of opportunities and strong momentum in our industry-leading Service business.

    我們結束了第一季的網路事件,並恢復了年初失去的勢頭。進入第二季時,我們的積壓訂單仍保持在歷史水平,擁有健康的機會管道以及業界領先的服務業務的強勁勢頭。

  • We are introducing second quarter sales guidance of approximately flat year-on-year, which assume continued weakness in China and global Residential HVAC. We expect strong contribution from North America and EMEA/LA that, once again, by our resilient Service business.

    我們推出的第二季銷售指引與去年同期大致持平,假設中國和全球住宅暖通空調持續疲軟。我們預計北美和歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯將再次透過我們富有彈性的服務業務做出強勁貢獻。

  • As we return to seasonality more in line with historical patterns, Global Product has one more challenging quarter before stabilizing in the second half. For the second quarter, we expect segment EBITA margin to be approximately 14.5% and adjusted EPS to be in the range of $0.74 to $0.78.

    隨著我們回歸到更符合歷史模式的季節性,全球產品在下半年趨於穩定之前將經歷一個更具挑戰性的季度。對於第二季度,我們預計分部 EBITA 利潤率約為 14.5%,調整後每股收益將在 0.74 美元至 0.78 美元之間。

  • For the full year, we continue to expect the top line growth of mid-single digit led by stronger performance in North America, further improvement in EMEA/LA, stabilization in Global Products and a cautious outlook on China.

    就全年而言,我們繼續預計,在北美表現強勁、歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯進一步改善、全球產品穩定以及對中國前景持謹慎態度的帶動下,營收將實現中個位數增長。

  • We expect segment EBITA margin to expand approximately 50 to 75 basis for the full year as price/cost remain positive and mix continue to improve throughout the year.

    我們預計,由於價格/成本保持正值且全年結構持續改善,全年分部 EBITA 利潤率將擴大約 50 至 75 個基點。

  • As George mentioned earlier in the call, given the weakening macro outlook in China, we are updating our adjusted EPS guidance range to approximately $3.60 to $3.75. The overall guide assume a return to normal seasonality, second half stabilization of Global Products and a conversion of higher-margin backlog in Building Solutions.

    正如喬治早些時候在電話會議中提到的,鑑於中國宏觀前景疲軟,我們將調整後的每股收益指導範圍更新至約 3.60 美元至 3.75 美元。整體指南假設季節性回歸正常、全球產品下半年穩定以及建築解決方案中利潤率較高的積壓訂單發生轉變。

  • We continue to expect adjusted free cash flow conversion of approximately 85% for the full year. The improvement we saw in cash flow for the start of the year demonstrate that our working capital improvement are gaining momentum.

    我們仍然預計全年調整後自由現金流轉換率約為 85%。今年年初現金流量的改善顯示我們的營運資本改善動能正在增強。

  • With that, operator, please open up the lines for questions.

    那麼,接線員,請打開提問線路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And today's first question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

    (操作員說明)今天的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • George, I think it's been a tough couple of quarters, maybe if we take a step backwards. What do you think long term this portfolio, the growth rate and margin levels and the cash generation, what is kind of your -- I don't want to call it dare to dream, but what is the vision of where you think you can get 2, 3, 4 years down the road when -- in a more normalized environment?

    喬治,我認為這幾個季度是艱難的,也許如果我們退一步的話。你認為這個投資組合的長期前景如何,增長率、利潤率水平和現金生成能力,你的——我不想稱其為“敢於夢想”,但你認為你可以實現的願景是什麼2、3、4年後-在一個更正常化的環境中?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So let me start, Scott, by just saying that, as you know, we've been through a significant transformation here into becoming a comprehensive solutions provider for commercial buildings. And then as part of that, continuing to focus on how do we transform the business model and how we bring our differentiated solutions to our customers in the commercial space.

    是的。史考特,首先我要說的是,如您所知,我們已經經歷了重大轉型,成為商業建築綜合解決方案提供者。然後,作為其中的一部分,繼續關注我們如何轉變業務模式以及如何為商業領域的客戶提供差異化的解決方案。

  • And so as you look at what we've been doing, we are well positioned to invest and lead in the overall building solutions space, capitalizing on significant secular trends, sustainable buildings, smart healthy buildings and we've been allocating our resources and building out the capabilities.

    因此,當您看看我們一直在做的事情時,我們就處於有利地位,能夠在整體建築解決方案領域進行投資和領導,利用重要的長期趨勢、永續建築、智慧健康建築,並且我們一直在分配我們的資源並建構出能力。

  • When you look at the content of how we differentiate the solutions, it's not only through the leadership of the product, the applied product, and continued investment that we're making in product, but also now deploying those products with a leadership platform with OpenBlue that we believe is going to now lead the industry. And that all is converting into how we change the outcomes for the customers that we serve, and that's through our engineered commercial solutions and converting what we do within Building Solutions to a digitally enabled service.

    當您查看我們如何區分解決方案的內容時,您會發現,這不僅是透過產品、應用產品的領先地位以及我們對產品的持續投資,而且現在還透過 OpenBlue 的領先平台來部署這些產品我們相信現在將引領業界。這一切都轉變為我們如何改變我們所服務的客戶的結果,這是透過我們設計的商業解決方案並將我們在建築解決方案中所做的工作轉變為數位化服務。

  • So when you look at the margin structure, as we go forward, not only are we getting a more focused approach to the differentiation with the value proposition right from engineering through install to then ultimately getting the life cycle services, when you project the overall performance going forward, we believe that from a growth standpoint, we'll be well above market on capitalizing on the secular trends with the differentiation. And from a margin profile, we'll have a much higher recurring revenue within our services, demanding a much higher margin with the content of these software-enabled services.

    因此,當您查看利潤結構時,隨著我們的前進,當您預測整體性能時,我們不僅會採用更集中的方法來實現差異化,還提供從工程到安裝到最終獲得生命週期服務的價值主張展望未來,我們相信,從成長的角度來看,我們將在利用長期趨勢和差異化方面遠高於市場。從利潤率來看,我們的服務將獲得更高的經常性收入,因此要求這些軟體服務的內容獲得更高的利潤。

  • And then from an overall return, when you look at the conversion to cash, we're getting now -- for the value proposition we bring, we're getting much more on cash upfront relative to that value proposition and ultimately being able to deliver very strong free cash flow.

    然後從整體回報來看,當你考慮現金的轉換時,我們現在得到的是——對於我們帶來的價值主張,相對於該價值主張,我們在前期獲得了更多的現金,並最終能夠交付非常強勁的自由現金流。

  • So I would say well above market growth, continued expansion of margins to what we believe is kind of mid- to higher teens and then very predictable cash flow with the mix of the content of what we do for our customers.

    因此,我想說的是,遠高於市場成長,利潤率持續擴大到我們認為的中等到更高的水平,然後與我們為客戶所做的內容相結合,現金流非常可預測。

  • Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

    Scott Reed Davis - Founding Partner, Chairman, CEO & Research Analyst of Multi-Industry Research

  • That's helpful, George. And when you think about asset sales and there's some nuance here, clearly, but is it more a function of simplifying the portfolios so you can execute on those KPIs that you just mentioned? Or is it -- or do the asset sales themselves kind of change the growth and margin profile of the company?

    這很有幫助,喬治。當您考慮資產銷售時,顯然這裡存在一些細微差別,但這更多的是簡化投資組合的功能,以便您可以執行您剛才提到的那些 KPI?或者資產出售本身會改變公司的成長和利潤狀況?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Let me reflect on the transformation that we've been going through. We've been continuously evaluating the portfolio kind of where we are with the transformation of a comprehensive solutions provider in commercial buildings, and then making sure that our resources are being deployed to the highest priorities.

    讓我回顧一下我們正在經歷的轉變。我們一直在不斷評估我們在商業建築綜合解決方案提供者轉型方面的投資組合,然後確保我們的資源被部署到最高優先事項。

  • When you look at the noncommercial product lines, they are excellent businesses, but they do not necessarily -- are they consistent with the go-forward strategy over the longer term? And that's now why, as we are now pursuing the alternatives here because these are good businesses, and there's an opportunity with these businesses now to be able to create even more value for our shareholders as we look at the alternatives.

    當你審視非商業產品線時,它們是優秀的企業,但它們不一定——它們與長期的前進策略一致嗎?這就是為什麼,我們現在在這裡尋求替代方案,因為這些都是很好的業務,當我們考慮替代方案時,這些業務現在有機會為我們的股東創造更多價值。

  • We're very excited about the future with the prospects that we have and the opportunities that we're driving towards. We believe that we're on the right path now to simplify the portfolio, continue to drive margin expansion, deliver much more consistent cash flow, while most important, is really differentiating the value proposition that we can bring to our customers, which is going to be fundamental to the growth.

    我們對未來感到非常興奮,我們擁有的前景和我們正在努力爭取的機會。我們相信,我們現在正走在正確的道路上,以簡化投資組合,繼續推動利潤率擴張,提供更一致的現金流,而最重要的是,我們可以為客戶帶來真正差異化的價值主張,這將繼續下去。成為成長的基礎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • It would be great if Marc can answer this question. But for the second quarter, could you just talk about the various segments and how you get to this 14.5% operating margin target maybe on a year-over-year and sequential basis? And what do you expect out of them? And then I have a follow-up.

    如果馬克能夠回答這個問題那就太好了。但對於第二季度,您能否談談各個細分市場,以及如何實現年比和季比 14.5% 的營業利潤率目標?您對他們有何期望?然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Steve. So first, I want to address the change in guidance, right? Since we issued our guidance in December, the impact of the economic environment in China on our business has deteriorated. And we have factored originally a fairly cautious outlook in China in the initial guide. However, that outlook has further worsened.

    是的。謝謝,史蒂夫。首先,我想解決指導意見的變化,對嗎?自我們去年 12 月發布指引以來,中國經濟環境對我們業務的影響已惡化。我們在最初的指南中最初考慮了對中國相當謹慎的前景。然而,這種前景進一步惡化。

  • We refocused the organization going through that tumultuous environment in China. We see a path of recovery to that volume and recovery of the backlog as well in the second half of the year, but it started to bottom out in Q2. We have more clarity on some of the actions we've taken around productivity and cost structure, and that support the recovery in that backlog.

    在中國動盪的環境中,我們重新調整了組織的重點。我們看到下半年該數量和積壓訂單將出現恢復,但在第二季開始觸底。我們對圍繞生產力和成本結構採取的一些行動有了更清晰的認識,這些行動支持積壓訂單的恢復。

  • Now focusing on Q2 on the different business. If you look at our field-based business, Building Solutions, the cyber disruption is really behind us. And the loss momentum that we had in Q1 is now recovering and supporting the shorter-cycle businesses, particularly our Service mix.

    現在重點關注第二季的不同業務。如果您看看我們的現場業務“建築解決方案”,您會發現網路中斷確實已經過去了。我們在第一季的虧損動能現在正在恢復並支援較短週期的業務,特別是我們的服務組合。

  • If you look at North America and EMEA/LA, particularly, the margin we have put in the backlog over the last 6 months, but particularly during the first quarter, gives us confidence that we're going to be able to deliver on the margin rate for those businesses. There's a lot of benefit of cost actions we've taken early on in the year and later last year, but there's also more return to seasonality in our Global Products business as we see the volume providing marginally in those operations.

    如果你看看北美和歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯,特別是在過去 6 個月中,特別是在第一季度,我們積壓的訂單利潤讓我們有信心能夠在利潤率上實現目標這些企業的利率。我們在今年年初和去年稍後採取的成本行動有很多好處,但我們的全球產品業務也有更多的季節性回歸,因為我們看到這些業務的產量微乎其微。

  • If you combine all of that, I think we see with confidence that margin being attainable, Steve.

    如果你把所有這些結合起來,我認為我們有信心看到可以實現的利潤,史蒂夫。

  • Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

    Charles Stephen Tusa - MD

  • Okay. And then just, George, for you, I guess. It's kind of hard to reconcile the commentary on momentum in your strategy with basically negative organic growth this quarter. Do you consider that positive momentum?

    好的。然後,喬治,我想,是為了你。很難將對你的戰略勢頭的評論與本季度基本為負的有機增長相調和。您認為這種正面勢頭嗎?

  • And then, secondly, what was the -- what drove the timing on this announcement of evaluating strategic alternatives? I mean it's not like you have anything really lined up here official to announce. So why are we kind of just throwing this out there today versus maybe over the last couple of years where you've been kind of pursuing the same strategy? Just curious on kind of a straightforward answer on both of those. We don't need a lot of verbiage.

    其次,是什麼推動了此次宣布評估策略替代方案的時機?我的意思是,你並沒有什麼真正要宣布的事情。那麼,為什麼我們今天才推出這個策略,而不是在過去幾年裡你們一直在追求同樣的策略呢?只是好奇對這兩個問題有一個簡單的答案。我們不需要太多的廢話。

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • So let me just comment on the quarter as far as momentum. We did have a significant disruption, as Marc said, for about 6 weeks of the first quarter and part of that did have an impact on our momentum and our ability to be able to convert and the like. And so that was more of a short-term impact in Q1 in addition to the year-on-year adjustment that we've had in Global Products.

    因此,讓我僅評論一下本季的勢頭。正如 Marc 所說,我們確實在第一季的大約 6 週內遭受了重大干擾,其中一部分確實對我們的動力和轉換能力等產生了影響。因此,除了我們在全球產品中進行的同比調整之外,這更多的是第一季的短期影響。

  • As far as the timing, I'm sure you can appreciate, Steve, that the Board and the management team, we've had a very thoughtful approach to the strategy. We assess all avenues that will deliver value to our shareholders. Our strategy -- our transformation has been focused on really leveraging all of our combined strengths and our differentiated product, our digital platform. And then from a go-to-market standpoint, the depth and expertise that we have from an engineering standpoint to ultimately be a comprehensive solutions provider and our ability to be able to take the value proposition and be able to convert that to recurring revenue through services.

    就時機而言,史蒂夫,我相信您會欣賞董事會和管理團隊,我們對該策略採取了非常深思熟慮的方法。我們評估所有能為股東創造價值的途徑。我們的策略—我們的轉型一直致力於真正利用我們所有的綜合優勢以及我們的差異化產品和數位平台。然後從進入市場的角度來看,我們從工程角度擁有的深度和專業知識最終成為一家綜合解決方案提供商,以及我們能夠採用價值主張並將其轉化為經常性收入的能力服務。

  • We're seeing that momentum, which is beginning to convert. And as we look at the difference in the business models within the businesses when we talk about the noncommercial businesses, there is a different business model relative to how we serve the market. And I think this allows us to be able to position those businesses for continued growth while we're creating value, while we're focused on really now accelerating the progress we've made within our Building Solutions business.

    我們看到這種勢頭正在開始轉變。當我們談論非商業業務時,當我們看到企業內部商業模式的差異時,我們會發現與我們服務市場的方式不同的商業模式。我認為這使我們能夠在創造價值的同時使這些業務持續成長,同時我們現在真正專注於加速我們在建築解決方案業務中取得的進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的 Jeff Sprague。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • I wonder if we could just drill a little bit more, George, into kind of the portfolio review. And specifically, as you know, the business is complex day-to-day for you running it. It's even more complex for us on the outside looking in. So can you just size for us what we're talking in noncommercial assets?

    喬治,我想知道我們是否可以再深入探討一下投資組合審查。具體來說,如您所知,對於您日常經營的業務來說,業務非常複雜。對於我們從外部來看,情況甚至更加複雜。那麼您能否為我們估算一下我們所討論的非商業資產的規模?

  • I think I put an estimate out there. I don't know if I'm in the ballpark or not, but just give us some sense of the total revenues that we're talking about that are under review and consideration and maybe kind of the average profitability across that basket.

    我想我已經做了一個估計。我不知道我是否在大致範圍內,但請讓我們了解我們正在審查和考慮的總收入,也許還有該籃子的平均盈利能力。

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. When you look at the overall revenues of these businesses, it would be less than 25% of the portfolio.

    是的。當你查看這些業務的總收入時,你會發現它不到投資組合的 25%。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • And how did the margins stack up versus the average of JCI?

    與 JCI 的平均值相比,利潤率如何?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Overall, when you look at the mix of the margins, it would be in line with the overall JCI.

    總體而言,當您查看利潤率組合時,您會發現它與整體 JCI 一致。

  • Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

    Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Founder & Managing Partner

  • Okay. And then just kind of coming back to maybe a more granular point on this then. Even preceding you, I think, as you well know, there was always this debate about can you extract Resi from kind of legacy York, the Resi and then Light Commercial Applied are tied together. And maybe it undermines your larger commercial effort if you exit that business.

    好的。然後再回到這個問題上更具體的一點。甚至在你之前,我想,正如你所知,一直存在這樣的爭論:你能否從約克的遺產中提取Resi,Resi和後來的輕商業應用是聯繫在一起的。如果您退出該業務,也許會破壞您更大的商業努力。

  • I mean maybe you found a way to separate Resi and Light Commercial where you think you can, but can you provide any additional context on that? And how the Light Commercial business, in particular, might factor into your strategic thoughts on where the business goes from here?

    我的意思是,也許您找到了一種將 Resi 和 Light Commercial 分開的方法,您認為可以,但是您能否提供任何其他相關背景資訊?尤其是輕型商業業務如何影響您對業務未來發展方向的策略思考?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Sure. So if you look at Resi, Light Commercial and the businesses now are really back on track. I mean, we've had a really nice quarter here picking up share, both in Resi as well as Light Commercial with our ducted business in North America was up double digit, which was supported with 40% growth in Commercial and with Resi being down about 7%. So the businesses now are performing -- positioning to perform going forward.

    當然。因此,如果你看看 Resi、Light Commercial,這些企業現在確實回到了正軌。我的意思是,我們在 Resi 和輕型商業領域度過了一個非常好的季度,我們在北美的管道業務增長了兩位數,這得益於商業領域 40% 的增長以及 Resi 的下降。約7 %。因此,企業現在正在表現——定位於未來的表現。

  • On the ductless side, when you look at JCH, it's where we had strength in Japan offsetting some of the weakness we saw in Europe and India.

    在無管道方面,當你看看 JCH 時,我們在日本的優勢彌補了我們在歐洲和印度看到的一些弱點。

  • So when you look at the go-to-market, I think it's important to understand that these noncommercial product lines are excellent businesses. But when you look at the go-to-market, they're not consistent with what we're doing as we build out our Building Solutions over the long term, and so we believe that when you look at the value proposition that we bring with our customers, that -- although there's an overlap with some of the applied rooftops, that can be managed with the structure that we put into place going forward.

    因此,當您考慮進入市場時,我認為重要的是要了解這些非商業產品線是優秀的業務。但是,當您考慮進入市場時,它們與我們在長期構建建築解決方案時所做的事情並不一致,因此我們相信,當您考慮我們帶來的價值主張時與我們的客戶相比,儘管與一些應用的屋頂有重疊,但可以透過我們未來建立的結構進行管理。

  • And so I think when you look at the -- it does not erode any value proposition in our comprehensive commercial solutions, but also positions the business to be able to take an incredible asset and create more value through growth.

    因此,我認為,當您看到時,它不會削弱我們全面的商業解決方案中的任何價值主張,而且還使企業能夠利用令人難以置信的資產並透過成長創造更多價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科。

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So another question on the portfolio review. So the press release on Friday highlighted Hitachi, but also talk about Residential, Light Commercial for York. And just wanted to make it very, very clear that we're talking here about just the U.S. Residential assets, but there's also a mention of the ADT business as well.

    關於投資組合審查的另一個問題。因此,週五的新聞稿重點介紹了日立,但也談到了約克的住宅和輕型商業。只是想非常非常清楚地表明,我們在這裡談論的只是美國住宅資產,但也提到了 ADT 業務。

  • So any more color in terms of the noncommercial assets because it does feel like there are some Commercial businesses here.

    因此,在非商業資產方面有更多的色彩,因為感覺這裡確實有一些商業企業。

  • And then on the Hitachi side, obviously, Hitachi still has 40% of that business. How much flexibility do you have to seek options for your majority control of the asset?

    然後在日立方面,很明顯,日立仍然擁有該業務的 40%。您有多大的彈性來尋求對資產的多數控制權的選擇?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • I think you'd appreciate, Nigel, at this stage, with the ongoing transformation, I would caution against making any assumptions at this stage and how we will affect it. I think the communication here today is that we are pursuing strategic alternatives. We're going to continue to simplify and standardize across the portfolio.

    奈傑爾,我想你會很感激,在這個階段,隨著轉型的不斷進行,我會警告不要在這個階段做出任何假設以及我們將如何影響它。我認為今天在這裡傳達的訊息是我們正在尋求戰略替代方案。我們將繼續簡化和標準化整個產品組合。

  • But we're in the early stages. And at this stage, I'm not going to comment relative to any one of the potential assets that we would look to create value with.

    但我們還處於早期階段。在現階段,我不會對任何我們希望用來創造價值的潛在資產發表評論。

  • Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Nigel Edward Coe - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Worth a try there, wasn't it? But if we do assume that you execute on some form of strategic realignment for the portfolio, if you had, let's say, $5 billion of cash coming in the door today, how would you look to deploy that, George?

    好的。那裡值得一試,不是嗎?但如果我們確實假設您對投資組合執行某種形式的策略調整,假設您今天收到了 50 億美元的現金,您會如何部署呢,喬治?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. As we look at -- I mean, we're, again, speculating on what would happen. I think as we look at what we do within our comprehensive commercial solutions business, we have been doing bolt-ons. We'll continue to be able to do bolt-ons in supporting the technology and our go-to-market as we strengthen that across the globe.

    是的。正如我們所看到的——我的意思是,我們再次猜測會發生什麼。我認為,當我們審視我們在綜合商業解決方案業務中所做的事情時,我們一直在做補充工作。隨著我們在全球範圍內的加強,我們將繼續能夠在支援技術和進入市場方面進行補充。

  • And our intent would be to make it accretive as far as whether it'd be through bolt-ons and/or deployment back to our shareholders to offset the dilution that any divestiture might have.

    我們的目的是使其增值,無論是透過補充和/或部署回我們的股東,以抵消任何剝離可能帶來的稀釋。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自諾亞·凱和奧本海默。

  • Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

    Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

  • Great. First, a shorter-term one. You did mention signs of bottoming out in Fire & Security on the short cycle. Can you just give us some more indicators and confidence there?

    偉大的。首先是短期的。您確實提到了消防與安全產業在短週期內觸底反彈的跡象。您能給我們更多的指標和信心嗎?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. When you look at the business, whether it'd be at the product level or in the field, as far as the demand signals are coming through strong, we've gone through some adjustment relative to backlog as well as in the product business, the book-to-bill business. We see this really differentiating our overall commercial solutions and how we're utilizing these businesses and differentiating our solutions.

    是的。當你看業務時,無論是在產品層面還是在現場,只要需求信號強烈,我們就積壓訂單以及產品業務都進行了一些調整,訂單到賬單業務。我們認為這確實使我們的整體商業解決方案與眾不同,以及我們如何利用這些業務並使我們的解決方案與眾不同。

  • On a go-forward basis, we have -- when you look at our pipeline of opportunities, it's pretty robust and we're working to continue now to execute that into backlog and ultimately then the conversion of revenues going forward.

    展望未來,當你看到我們的機會管道時,你會發現它非常強勁,我們現在正在努力繼續將其落實到積壓工作中,並最終將其轉化為未來的收入。

  • So I think it's more short term based on what we've seen here with some of the adjustments in the market, but we're confident that with the pipeline we have, we're going to be positioned to be able to continue to support the growth that we're committing to.

    因此,我認為根據我們在這裡看到的市場調整的情況,這是更短期的,但我們相信,憑藉我們現有的管道,我們將能夠繼續支持我們致力於實現的成長。

  • Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

    Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And I think I'd like to return to the why-now question that was asked earlier and maybe frame it slightly differently. Obviously, the U.S. market went through a tough year last year with volume trends. But certainly, there are some secular tailwinds as we look out in the next couple of years, refrigerant transition, ongoing price/mix benefits, easier comps. And then you have the transition, both in North America and globally towards heat pumps.

    好的。我想我想回到之前提出的“為什麼現在”的問題,也許框架會略有不同。顯然,去年美國市場在銷售趨勢上經歷了艱難的一年。但可以肯定的是,我們在未來幾年中看到了一些長期的有利因素:冷媒轉型、持續的價格/組合優勢、更容易的競爭。然後,北美和全球都會向熱泵過渡。

  • So there seem to be some positive prospects, both North America and globally for Residential. And at the same time, there's, I think, overarching concern from any investors around non-res, right, commercial weakness. And so I guess in that context, why now is a particularly acute question because, I think, from a cycle perspective, the market doesn't necessarily see the same trends ahead that would seem to inform this decision. So maybe kind of talk to us about why this makes sense for you and why now?

    因此,北美和全球的住宅似乎都有一些積極的前景。同時,我認為,所有投資者都對非資源、商業弱點有整體擔憂。因此,我想在這種情況下,為什麼現在是一個特別尖銳的問題,因為我認為,從週期的角度來看,市場不一定會看到未來的相同趨勢,這些趨勢似乎會為這一決定提供資訊.那麼也許可以和我們談談為什麼這對您有意義以及為什麼現在?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So as I said earlier, we've come through a very disruptive period and there's been significant progress that has been made across these businesses, and these businesses are positioned to perform. And so as I said earlier, as you can appreciate, we're constantly reviewing the portfolio and understanding how we manage the assets to be able to deliver value for our shareholders.

    是的。正如我之前所說,我們經歷了一個非常顛覆性的時期,這些業務取得了重大進展,而這些業務已經做好了準備。正如我之前所說,正如您所理解的,我們不斷審查投資組合併了解我們如何管理資產以便能夠為股東創造價值。

  • We've taken a very thoughtful approach to the strategy and this has been continuous and making sure that we're assessing all avenues on how we ultimately deliver value to our shareholders. And so that's what's been playing out. I think tied to -- as we think about our acceleration of becoming the leading comprehensive commercial solutions provider within commercial buildings, this is part of that path forward.

    我們對策略採取了非常深思熟慮的方法,而這種方法是持續的,並確保我們正在評估最終如何為股東創造價值的所有途徑。這就是正在發生的事情。我認為,當我們考慮加速成為商業建築領域領先的綜合商業解決方案提供者時,這是前進道路的一部分。

  • And in line with -- consistent with how we continue to update our shareholders, we'll continue to provide those updates as we continue to make progress with these potential divestitures.

    與我們繼續向股東通報最新情況的方式一致,隨著我們繼續在這些潛在的資產剝離方面取得進展,我們將繼續提供這些最新情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

  • Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

    Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

  • Congratulations, Marc. And Olivier, we'll see you on the other side.

    恭喜,馬克。奧利維爾,我們在另一邊見。

  • Olivier Leonetti

    Olivier Leonetti

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

    Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

  • The -- let me just start with Asia because you referenced China a few times on your prepared comments.

    讓我先從亞洲開始,因為您在準備好的評論中多次提到了中國。

  • I'm just trying to understand like how much of the weakness that you saw this quarter was just the market deteriorating versus your own selectivity? And then as you kind of think about the next few quarters, should we be expecting material order declines to continue?

    我只是想了解您本季看到的疲軟有多少只是市場惡化而不是您自己的選擇性?然後,當您思考接下來的幾季時,我們是否應該預期材料訂單下降會繼續下去?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • I'll take that, Joe. Last year, when you look at where we were last year, we were working to recover our backlog from the second wave of COVID shutdowns in China. As the economic environment in China has slowed, we continue to make sure that we're streamlined with our organization and aligning our resources to the market to be able to maximize what we believe is our entitlement and then make sure that we're executing with discipline to achieve what we see to be very strong life cycle value creation with our services. This is what we played out in North America and which has been very successful for us.

    我會接受的,喬。去年,當你看看我們去年的情況時,我們正在努力從中國第二波新冠疫情關閉中恢復積壓的訂單。隨著中國經濟環境放緩,我們繼續確保我們的組織精簡,並根據市場調整我們的資源,以便能夠最大限度地發揮我們所認為的我們的權利,然後確保我們執行紀律,以透過我們的服務實現我們認為非常強大的生命週期價值創造。這就是我們在北美所採取的做法,對我們來說非常成功。

  • We do have a very healthy pipeline as we assess the market, which we are converting. We are anticipating a slower recovery of the backlog, and ultimately, the projected revenue, which now has been pushed to the right.

    當我們評估我們正在轉變的市場時,我們確實有一個非常健康的管道。我們預期積壓訂單的恢復速度會較慢,最終預期收入的恢復速度也會較慢,目前該收入已被推至右邊。

  • And so those are the factors really updating our guidance there, Joe, but confident that we have incredible product for the market, making sure we have the right go-to-market structure, and then ultimately, being able to execute on what we see still to be a very attractive market.

    因此,喬,這些是真正更新我們指導的因素,但我們相信我們為市場提供了令人難以置信的產品,確保我們擁有正確的進入市場結構,然後最終能夠執行我們所看到的仍然是一個非常有吸引力的市場。

  • Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

    Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

  • Okay. And I know that you don't want to provide a ton of specificity on what noncommercial means. Just maybe from my own edification and remembering the old Tyco assets, I mean, I think you still had some residential ADTs, international assets as well. Just correct me if I'm wrong if you don't.

    好的。我知道您不想對非商業的含義提供大量具體資訊。也許只是從我自己的薰陶和對泰科舊資產的記憶來看,我的意思是,我認為你們仍然擁有一些住宅 ADT,以及國際資產。如果我錯了,請糾正我,如果你不這樣做。

  • And then also just a point of clarification. The Light Commercial business is showing at roughly 6% of sales. I think the last several quarters, we've been seeing it closer to 9%. Did you guys shift a portion of the Light Commercial sales into Applied? Just want to understand that a little bit, too.

    然後還需要澄清一點。輕型商業業務約佔銷售額的 6%。我認為過去幾個季度,我們看到這一比例接近 9%。你們是否將部分輕型商業銷售轉移到了應用材料公司?我也想稍微了解一下這一點。

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • When you look at the mix within our ducted business, which is mainly what drives our Light Commercial, is we were up 40%. And like I said, in our ducted business, when you look at Resi being down slightly and then commercial being very strong, our whole ducted business was up 10%.

    當您查看我們的管道業務(這主要是推動我們的輕型商業業務)的組合時,您會發現我們成長了 40%。就像我說的,在我們的管道業務中,當你看到 Resi 略有下降,然後商業非常強勁時,我們的整個管道業務增長了 10%。

  • And so this has been the differentiated product that we've been bringing into the market, getting -- we've increased share, Joe, by -- it's been roughly about 300 basis points over the last year with the recovery of the commercial market and we've invested in the capacity to be able to do so. So as far as -- that is the core of our Light Commercial business, and we've been performing extremely well.

    因此,這是我們一直引入市場的差異化產品,隨著商業市場的復甦,我們增加了份額,喬,去年大約增加了 300 個基點我們已經投資了能力來做到這一點。就我們輕商業業務的核心而言,我們一直表現得非常好。

  • Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

    Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

  • So was there a re-class because it's showing like that business is lower as a percentage of your total sales than it was in the last few quarters?

    那麼是否進行了重新分類,因為顯示該業務佔總銷售額的百分比低於過去幾季?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • It takes into account the VRF.

    它考慮了 VRF。

  • James C. Lucas - VP of IR

    James C. Lucas - VP of IR

  • Now Joe, the difference is that the 9% is our fiscal '22 sales in the prior year versus when we move forward it's now our fiscal '23 now that, that year is final. It's just a -- it's a math exercise.

    現在,喬,差別在於,9% 是我們上一年的 22 財年銷售額,而當我們向前推進時,現在是我們的 23 財年,那一年已經是最終的了。這只是一個數學練習。

  • Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

    Joseph Alfred Ritchie - VP & Lead Multi-Industry Analyst

  • Yes. Actually, that math doesn't really tie well, but I can follow up off-line.

    是的。事實上,數學並不太相關,但我可以離線跟進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • Could you give us a little more color regarding your order cadence within Building Solutions and what you're seeing? Obviously, most of the slowdown in orders, as you said in Q1, was because of the slowdown in China.

    您能給我們更多關於您在建築解決方案中的訂單節奏以及您所看到的情況的資訊嗎?顯然,正如您在第一季所說,訂單放緩的大部分原因是中國經濟放緩。

  • But did you see a dip in orders because of the cyber incident and then improvement? I think you changed your incentive comp structure for some of your salespeople as well in the quarter. So a lot going on. How are you thinking about orders and backlog from here?

    但您是否看到訂單因網路事件而下降,然後有所改善?我認為您在本季也改變了一些銷售人員的激勵薪酬結構。發生了很多事情。您如何看待這裡的訂單和積壓訂單?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So as we talked about, we did lose some momentum because of the cyber incident. And so when you look at the sales conversion cycle, it did lengthen in the first quarter by about a week -- a little bit better than a week.

    是的。正如我們所談到的,我們確實因為網路事件而失去了一些動力。因此,當你觀察銷售轉換週期時,你會發現第一季的銷售轉換週期確實延長了大約一周——比一周好一點。

  • And so when you look at our pipeline, continues to expand and does support the acceleration of orders in Q2 and through the remainder of the year, in line with what we were projecting prior to having the impact that we had. So we're very confident that with the pipeline -- with the generation -- pipeline generation and then our ability to be able to convert with the cycle times we convert with, we're back to where we were.

    因此,當您查看我們的管道時,我們會繼續擴大並確實支持第二季和今年剩餘時間的訂單加速,這與我們在產生影響之前的預測一致。因此,我們非常有信心,隨著管道的生成,管道的生成,然後我們能夠根據轉換的周期時間進行轉換,我們將回到原來的狀態。

  • And then that also being combined with our success in Services and being able to continue to build strong pipelines for Services, convert to PSAs, building backlog, and then ultimately, supporting our ability to get Services deliver high single-digit Services for the year.

    然後,這也與我們在服務方面的成功相結合,能夠繼續為服務建立強大的管道,轉換為PSA,建立積壓,然後最終支持我們讓服務在今年提供高個位數服務的能力。

  • Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head

    Andrew Alec Kaplowitz - MD & U.S. Industrial Sector Head

  • And this question might be for Marc. I know you ran Building Solutions in EMEA/LA at least for a little while. So obviously, those margins have continued to be challenging. Can you give us more color into what is holding down that segment, projects ending there and maybe better margin going forward? And then talk about the changes you began to institute and when they might have more impact on that segment.

    這個問題可能是問馬克的。我知道您在歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯運行建築解決方案至少有一段時間了。顯然,這些利潤仍然具有挑戰性。您能否給我們更多的資訊來說明是什麼阻礙了該細分市場的發展,專案結束了,也許未來會有更好的利潤?然後討論您開始實施的變革以及這些變革何時可能對該細分市場產生更大影響。

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • Great question. So right away, when I took the role last year, we started to work on implementing our enterprise field operating model. That's very similar to what we did in North America a few years ago.

    很好的問題。因此,當我去年接手這個職位時,我們立即開始致力於實施我們的企業現場營運模式。這與我們幾年前在北美所做的非常相似。

  • Johnson Controls operates in markets that are very sizable and complex, but that provides ample opportunity for us to grow. But when you face large market, it's important to remain focused and disciplined on the subsegments of that market that provide the right level of product capabilities, leverage our engineering talent and our solutions. And we are looking for those subsegments of the market that provide the most value for both our customers and the company.

    江森自控所在的市場規模非常龐大且複雜,但這為我們的發展提供了充足的機會。但是,當您面對巨大的市場時,重要的是要保持專注並嚴格遵守該市場的細分市場,以提供適當水平的產品功能,並利用我們的工程人才和解決方案。我們正在尋找那些能為我們的客戶和公司提供最大價值的細分市場。

  • As we continue to simplify, standardize and I would say rationalize that business, the operating model becomes easier to adopt in the field, in the regions and the benefits of that model get amplified. We get a lot of leverage. And that's really what we have been focused on over the last 6 to 8 months.

    隨著我們繼續簡化、標準化,我想說的是合理化業務,營運模式變得更容易在現場、地區採用,並且該模式的好處得到放大。我們獲得了很大的槓桿作用。這確實是我們過去 6 到 8 個月以來一直關注的重點。

  • There's still work to be done, but I see great improvement in our book margin. And as we start seeing the benefit of that model and the actions we've taken, I'm very confident that EMEA/LA will return to a comparable profit level that the other field segments are seeing.

    雖然仍有工作要做,但我看到我們的帳面利潤率有了很大改善。當我們開始看到該模式的好處以及我們所採取的行動時,我非常有信心歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯將恢復到與其他領域細分市場相當的利潤水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安米切爾。

  • Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

    Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • And thanks, Olivier, and congrats to Marc. Maybe just on Slide 9, the guidance for the sort of existing portfolio. So you're looking at sort of 4% organic sales growth, let's say, for the year. So the second half is implied up 8%. How should we think about that plus 8% splitting between Global Products and then Building Solutions? And just trying to confirm, does that second half growth guide of plus 8% include growth in both U.S. Resi, HVAC and also China Building Solutions?

    謝謝奧利維爾,並祝賀馬克。也許就在投影片 9 上,也就是現有投資組合的指導。因此,您預計今年的有機銷售成長率約為 4%。因此下半年預計將上漲 8%。我們應該如何考慮全球產品和建置解決方案之間 8% 的分配?只是想確認一下,下半年 8% 以上的成長指引是否包括美國 Resi、HVAC 和中國建築解決方案的成長?

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • Yes. So thank you. So as you look at the breakdown between our Business Solutions segments and Global Products, we see a recovery in growth in Asia Pac in the second half of the year. So that will turn positive.

    是的。所以謝謝。因此,當您查看我們的業務解決方案部門和全球產品之間的細分時,我們看到亞太地區的成長在下半年出現復甦。所以這將變得積極。

  • And as we continue to see the other segment, BSNA -- North America and EMEA/LA continuing to clock at mid-single digit, you can see the balance of those 2 offsetting and getting very strong single digits all the way to almost double-digit in the second half of the year. That supports the growth you're seeing on the slide.

    當我們繼續看到另一個細分市場,BSNA——北美和歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯繼續保持在中個位數時,你可以看到這兩個抵消的平衡,並獲得非常強勁的個位數字一直到幾乎兩倍——下半年的數字。這支持了您在幻燈片上看到的成長。

  • When it comes to Global Products, we continue to see an improvement in orders. As we said, we believe that Q2 is really the bottoming out and the stabilization of that business and we see quite good momentum in the recovery into Q3 and accelerating into Q4 supporting that number you see on the slide.

    就全球產品而言,我們繼續看到訂單有所改善。正如我們所說,我們相信第二季度確實是該業務的觸底反彈和穩定,我們看到第三季度的復甦勢頭相當好,並加速進入第四季度,支持了幻燈片上的數字。

  • Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

    Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • Got it. So both GP and Building Solutions grow at a similar rate in the second half to each other?

    知道了。那麼下半年 GP 和 Building Solutions 的成長速度相似嗎?

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • That's right.

    這是正確的。

  • Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

    Julian C.H. Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • And then just a second question. Understand you can't talk too much about the portfolio. So maybe thinking about some other items. Just wanted to, Marc, on the perspectives on sort of receivables factoring from here and what the approach will be in terms of does that factoring get unwound now because lead times are going back to normal? And Pillar 2 has come in. So should we think about the medium-term tax rate moving up to the high teens.

    然後是第二個問題。了解您不能談太多投資組合。所以也許要考慮一些其他的事情。馬克,我只是想談談對這裡應收帳款保理的看法,以及由於交貨時間恢復正常而使保理現在解除的方法是什麼?第二支柱已經出現。因此,我們是否應該考慮將中期稅率提高到十幾歲。

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • Yes. So starting on that last question on tax rate. Obviously, there are some headwinds there with the new changes in the rate. We are continually assessing it and we'll continue to look at it. But you're right, there is a headwind longer term on the rate.

    是的。那麼從關於稅率的最後一個問題開始。顯然,利率的新變化存在一些阻力。我們正在不斷評估它,並將繼續關注它。但你是對的,從長遠來看,利率存在阻力。

  • When it comes to factoring, we always look at different methods to finance the company. And as you said, when lead times got difficult, when inventory were a little bit more elevated than traditionally, factoring became a logical avenue.

    在保理方面,我們總是尋找不同的方法來為公司融資。正如您所說,當交貨時間變得困難時,當庫存比傳統情況高一點時,保理就成為一種合乎邏輯的途徑。

  • We will continue to review the most economical ways to finance the company. We'll make sure that we take appropriate action against that program to align it with the financial commitment we've made to you, both in terms of profitability and free cash flow conversion.

    我們將繼續審查最經濟的公司融資方式。我們將確保針對該計劃採取適當的行動,使其與我們向您做出的財務承諾(無論是在盈利能力還是自由現金流轉換方面)保持一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自 Gautam Khanna 和 TD Cowen。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Was wondering if you could comment on pricing in the various verticals, what you're seeing with respect to pricing power? And then I have a follow-up.

    想知道您是否可以對各個垂直領域的定價發表評論,您對定價能力的看法如何?然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • Yes. As part of that simplification of our business model, one benefit that comes in, we have more clarity on our cost accumulation and our ability to drive price, focusing the businesses, particularly of Business Solutions segments, towards better vertical and better product lines and solution. We are able to drive more price to the market than we have been historically, chasing less the segments of the market where competitiveness but also value is hard to sell to the end customer.

    是的。作為我們業務模式簡化的一部分,帶來的一個好處是,我們對成本累積和推動價格的能力更加清晰,將業務重點,特別是業務解決方案部門,轉向更好的垂直和更好的產品線和解決方案。我們能夠向市場推出比以往更高的價格,減少對難以向最終客戶推銷競爭力和價值的細分市場的追逐。

  • So as part of our Building Solutions operating system, you can see a great improvement, both on the price we can command in the market but also the price realization we see in our backlog and our executed margin.

    因此,作為我們建築解決方案操作系統的一部分,您可以看到巨大的改進,無論是我們在市場上可以控制的價格,還是我們在積壓訂單和執行利潤中看到的價格實現。

  • When it comes to Global Products, we've always tried to shy away from the more commoditized part of the market. For the parts where we actually have differentiated product, we see tremendous momentum both on pricing, but as well as the margin that comes on the back end of that. I'm particularly thinking about our Applied HVAC businesses that have been operating at very strong margin over the last few months and continue to see quite good momentum from a price/cost standpoint.

    當談到全球產品時,我們一直試圖迴避市場上更商品化的部分。對於我們實際上擁有差異化產品的部分,我們在定價和後端利潤方面都看到了巨大的動力。我特別想到我們的應用暖通空調業務,這些業務在過去幾個月中一直以非常強勁的利潤率運營,並且從價格/成本的角度來看,繼續看到相當好的勢頭。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • And could you expand that commentary on the resi market as well? Are you still able to get price? Is there any pushback? Are you seeing any evidence of trade-downs or movement to repair versus replace and the like?

    您能否也擴展一下對 Resi 市場的評論?還可以拿到價格嗎?有什麼阻力嗎?您是否看到任何折衷或採取維修與更換等行動的證據?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • No. As we've said previously, we've continued to lead pricing, making sure that with all of the reinvestments that have been made to support these regulatory changes that we're positioned to be able to get the proper price, and that continues.

    不會。正如我們之前所說,我們將繼續主導定價,確保透過為支持這些監管變化而進行的所有再投資,我們能夠獲得適當的價格,並且繼續。

  • And so in spite of us being maybe not one of the top players, we've been very disciplined relative to how we're creating the value proposition, and ultimately, how we're pricing in the market.

    因此,儘管我們可能不是頂級參與者之一,但我們在如何創造價值主張以及最終如何在市場定價方面一直非常自律。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Chris Snyder at UBS.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

  • Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

  • So for revenue, you guys are guiding March up about 10% sequentially, which is a good deal stronger than the typical mid-single-digit ramp that we've seen in most years. Maybe can you just talk about the drivers of this -- the sharp increase into the March quarter?

    因此,就收入而言,你們預計 3 月的營收將比上一季成長約 10%,這比我們在大多數年份看到的典型的中個位數成長要強得多。也許你能談談這個的驅動因素——三月季度的急劇增長嗎?

  • I understand there's a couple of points of cybersecurity catch-up, but it sounds like GP maybe has yet to stabilize. I think you said it troughs in the March quarter, so I would expect some headwinds there still remain.

    我知道網路安全方面還存在一些問題,但聽起來 GP 可能還沒有穩定下來。我想你說的是三月季度的低谷,所以我預計仍然存在一些阻力。

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • Yes. It's coming and I think you mentioned it in your question. There's some return to normal seasonality versus the prior year. As we were flowing through the backlog, you can see that seasonality picking up, and that's lifting us a couple of points.

    是的。它即將到來,我想你在問題中提到了它。與去年相比,季節性有所恢復。當我們處理積壓的訂單時,您可以看到季節性的增加,這使我們的分數提高了一些。

  • But you're absolutely right. The cyber disruption and the loss of momentum it had created in the quarter, there were very few orders that were lost, but the cycle time of our commercial team extended as we were going through the quarter. And that created challenge in the first quarter that now provides tailwind from a growth standpoint in the second quarter.

    但你是絕對正確的。由於網路中斷及其在本季造成的動力損失,損失的訂單非常少,但隨著本季的進行,我們的商業團隊的周期時間也延長了。這在第一季帶來了挑戰,現在從第二季的成長角度來看,這提供了動力。

  • Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

  • And was it 1 -- I know you guys called out 1 point in the December quarter, if I remember correctly. Was it 1 point again from cyber in the March quarter?

    如果我沒記錯的話,我知道你們在 12 月季度中喊出了 1 分。 3 月季度網路再次上漲 1 分嗎?

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • I don't believe we were that prescriptive, to be honest with you. It's really hard to measure with precision how much was cyber versus the market at the time. But I think if you look at the momentum we've built now in Q2, I would tell you, it's a few points of benefit that we are seeing.

    老實說,我不認為我們有那麼規定性。當時確實很難準確衡量網絡與市場的關係。但我認為,如果你看看我們在第二季度建立的勢頭,我會告訴你,我們看到了一些好處。

  • Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher M. Snyder - Analyst

  • Got it. And then for my follow-up, on Global Products, you guys talked about seeing stabilization. Can you maybe talk about the respective product lines within that being Resi, Light Commercial and Fire & Security, are they all showing stabilization? Are any leading, any lagging on that normalcy?

    知道了。然後,在我的後續行動中,關於全球產品,你們談到了看到穩定。您能否談談 Resi、Light Commercial 和 Fire & Security 各自的產品線,它們都表現出穩定嗎?這種常態是否有任何領先或滯後?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • When you look at our -- the Global Products and more of the transactional businesses book-to-bill, we went through a significant inventory adjustment last year in the channel.

    當你看看我們的全球產品和更多按訂單付款的交易業務時,我們去年在通路中進行了重大庫存調整。

  • When you look at our order rates now coming in and now what we're projecting in revenue, we're seeing that positive across the board.

    當您查看我們現在的訂單率以及我們預計的收入時,我們會看到全面的正面情況。

  • Again, in the ducted business, Resi still is down -- still down about 20% with price we're down single digits. That will continue to improve as we go through the year. But beyond that, across the board, we're seeing very strong orders in line with what we're projecting for revenue as we go forward.

    同樣,在管道業務中,Resi 仍然在下降——仍然下降了約 20%,而價格下降了個位數。隨著這一年的過去,這種情況將繼續改善。但除此之外,我們看到非常強勁的訂單,與我們未來的營收預測相符。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

  • Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

    Nicole Sheree DeBlase - Director & Lead Analyst

  • So we've covered a lot of ground here. I guess the last thing I just wanted to ask about is, I'll just keep it to one question, is you guys gave guidance and reported earnings obviously pretty late in the fourth quarter with only a couple of weeks ago. So how did China take you by such a surprise where we're only a month later and we have to cut guidance by $0.05?

    我們已經在這裡介紹了很多內容。我想我只想問的最後一件事是,我只想問一個問題,你們在第四季度很晚(幾週前)就給出了指導並報告了收益。那麼,僅僅一個月後,我們就必須將指導意見下調 0.05 美元,中國是如何讓您如此驚訝的呢?

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • Yes. The disruption that came from the cyber incident also slowed down the pace at which data flows through the organization. And as I mentioned in the opening remarks, we had factored a fairly cautious outlook on China. But our ability to really pin down exactly the impact, it was actually going to have in the current quarter and following quarter. As we are now about 6 weeks smarter and more educated about the challenges, that outlook has worked on further. We discussed it in a prior question, it's a combination of the market condition and us being more selective in the type of deal and the type of transaction we decide to pursue.

    是的。網路事件造成的破壞也減慢了資料在組織中流動的速度。正如我在開場白中提到的,我們對中國的前景相當謹慎。但我們有能力真正準確地確定它實際上將在本季度和下一季產生的影響。由於我們現在已經聰明了大約 6 週,並且對挑戰有了更多的了解,這種前景得到了進一步的發揮。我們在之前的問題中討論過,這是市場狀況和我們對交易類型以及我們決定追求的交易類型更具選擇性的結合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

  • Joseph John O'Dea - Senior Equity Analyst

    Joseph John O'Dea - Senior Equity Analyst

  • In your reference to simplifying and standardizing costs across the portfolio, I think you've been on some kind of notable cost-out as it relates to both COGS and SG&A. Is this sort of setting up for the next chapter? Or can you talk a little bit about where you see the biggest opportunities on simplifying some of the cost structure and any sizing of those opportunities?

    當您提到簡化和標準化整個投資組合的成本時,我認為您已經經歷了某種顯著的成本支出,因為它與 COGS 和 SG&A 有關。這是為下一章所做的準備嗎?或者您能否談談您認為簡化某些成本結構的最大機會以及這些機會的規模?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So let me reflect on that. I mean we've been through a major transformation taking a set of businesses that were a lot of variation in the fundamentals within the operating system. We now have standardized that across the board. That has allowed us to become much more efficient reducing layers, and ultimately, the cost that is required to support the business.

    是的。讓我反思一下。我的意思是,我們已經經歷了重大轉型,採取了一系列業務,這些業務在作業系統的基本原理上有很多變化。我們現在已經全面標準化了。這使我們能夠更有效率地減少層級,並最終降低支援業務所需的成本。

  • As we continue now, so it's a twofold not only standardizing the processes but then with automation and IT supporting those processes with good data, that is all accelerated within the company, which has allowed us to be able to now capitalize on more simplification. That's one element.

    正如我們現在繼續的那樣,這不僅是流程標準化,而且是自動化和 IT 以良好的數據支援這些流程,這一切都在公司內部加速,這使我們現在能夠利用更多的簡化。這是一個要素。

  • And then from a selling standpoint, as we then standardize our operating system around commercial, we've also been able to align our commercial resources in line with the market with the segmentation that we're driving to be able to drive our growth and we're seeing significant pickup there also.

    然後從銷售的角度來看,當我們圍繞商業標準化我們的作業系統時,我們也能夠根據市場和我們正在推動的細分來調整我們的商業資源,從而能夠推動我們的成長,並且我們在那裡也看到了顯著的回升。

  • So it's really across the board on all of our cost elements in line with being much more simple, much more standard and more agile in how we now pursue growth.

    因此,我們所有的成本要素實際上都是全面的,與我們現在追求成長的方式更加簡單、更標準、更敏捷相一致。

  • Joseph John O'Dea - Senior Equity Analyst

    Joseph John O'Dea - Senior Equity Analyst

  • And then could you talk about service order trends by region? When we look at EMEA/LA the last couple of quarters, we're looking at sort of low double-digit, mid-teens type of growth in Service orders in each of those quarters, whereas in North America we've been seeing low single digit? So what you're seeing in terms of sort of differences in terms of those growth rates, demand trends on the Service order side in the field?

    那麼您能談談按地區劃分的服務訂單趨勢嗎?當我們觀察過去幾季的歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯時,我們看到每季的服務訂單都出現了兩位數、十幾歲左右的低成長,而在北美,我們看到的成長速度很低。個位數?那麼,您在該領域的服務訂單方面的成長率和需求趨勢方面看到了哪些差異?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Let me just touch upon the fundamentals, and Marc can talk a little bit about the orders. The fundamentals here, we're increasing our attach rates and now we're up to mid- to upper 40 percentile. So we're getting a more -- a higher percentage of our installed base served.

    是的。讓我簡單談談基本原理,馬克可以談談訂單。從基本面來看,我們正在提高附加率,現在我們已達到 40% 的中上位置。因此,我們的服務安裝基數比例較高。

  • This year, we're going to be able to expand our connected assets by well over 10,000. We're going to be able to get PSA growth longer-term, Services up over 20%. And then when you look at the way that we're connecting our Services, we're getting much lower attrition rates. That all now is playing out and positioning us for a strong high single-digit Service growth again this year.

    今年,我們將能夠將互聯資產擴展至超過 10,000 個。我們將能夠使 PSA 成長更長期,服務成長超過 20%。然後,當您查看我們連接服務的方式時,您會發現我們的流失率要低得多。現在這一切正在發揮作用,並使我們今年的服務業務再次實現強勁的個位數高成長。

  • On the order rates, as we look at any one of those elements, we're consistently driving that strategy across all 3 regions. So Marc, maybe you want to comment?

    在訂單率方面,當我們考慮其中任何一個因素時,我們都會在所有 3 個地區持續推動這項策略。馬克,也許你想發表評論?

  • Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

    Marc Vandiepenbeeck - CFO

  • Yes. Commenting on the 3 regions. So North America is our largest Service business and was also unfortunately the most impacted by the cyber disruption. So that's why you see a little bit of softness in Q1. It's a very transactional business, day-to-day business that has a lot of automation and reliance on our system to be able to order -- book orders and execute that revenue rapidly.

    是的。評論3個地區。因此,北美是我們最大的服務業務,但不幸的是,北美也是受網路中斷影響最嚴重的地區。這就是為什麼你會在第一季看到一些疲軟的原因。這是一項交易性很強的日常業務,具有大量自動化功能,並依賴我們的系統來快速訂購並執行收入。

  • The fundamentals of that business hasn't changed and I think the recovery is coming in the balance of the year, and we are seeing now in the second quarter a really strong pickup in that business.

    該業務的基本面沒有改變,我認為今年剩餘時間將出現復甦,我們現在看到該業務在第二季度出現了真正強勁的回升。

  • If you look at EMEA/LA and Asia, touching on EMEA/LA first, those are mature businesses, but at a different part of the cycle when it comes to growth. There's enormous amount of opportunity in getting after our installed base and continuously maturing our business model similarly to what we've done in North America to really drive long-term double-digit growth in those Service business.

    如果你看看歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯和亞洲,首先接觸歐洲、中東和非洲/洛杉磯,這些都是成熟的業務,但在成長方面處於週期的不同階段。與我們在北美所做的那樣,在追求我們的安裝基礎並不斷成熟我們的業務模式方面存在巨大的機會,以真正推動這些服務業務的長期兩位數成長。

  • And in Asia Pacific, particularly in China, part of our refocus on the market is really focusing on those subsegments of the market, where we see a strong long-term service profile for our business in order for us to really maximize the whole life cycle of those opportunities.

    在亞太地區,特別是在中國,我們重新關注市場的一部分實際上是專注於這些細分市場,我們在這些細分市場中看到了我們業務的強大長期服務概況,以便我們真正最大化整個生命週期這些機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question today comes from Deane Dray at RBC Capital Markets.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

  • Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

    Deane Michael Dray - MD of Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment & Analyst

  • Just a quick question from me, please, regarding the potential or expected divestitures, the separation of Resi. What would that do to RemainCo in terms of free cash flow potential? Just maybe down to the level of working capital. Just does that change your ability to hit this target of 100% free cash flow conversion?

    我想問一個簡單的問題,關於潛在或預期的資產剝離、Resi 的分離。就自由現金流潛力而言,這會對RemainCo產生什麼影響?也許只是取決於營運資金水準。這是否會改變您實現 100% 自由現金流轉換目標的能力?

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Not at all, Deane. I mean, we've been working on our free cash flow and the fundamentals of that across both the Building Solutions to be able to get more billing upfront and more in line with revenue. And then in our Global Products business, have significantly improved not only the inventory, but also our ability to be able to collect.

    是的。一點也不,迪恩。我的意思是,我們一直在研究自由現金流以及整個建築解決方案的基本原理,以便能夠獲得更多的預付費用並與收入更加一致。然後在我們的全球產品業務中,不僅顯著提高了庫存,而且還提高了我們的收集能力。

  • So as far as the commitment to our free cash flow target, we're going to be well positioned to be able to deliver on that target.

    因此,就我們對自由現金流目標的承諾而言,我們將處於有利地位,能夠實現該目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to George Oliver for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。女士們、先生們,我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回喬治·奧利佛(George Oliver)發表閉幕詞。

  • George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

    George R. Oliver - Chairman & CEO

  • Just to wrap up, as we've discussed here today, we've been on a transformation journey for a number of years and have made incredible progress and have had many successes. While we're building strong fundamentals, we're also better leveraging our people and portfolio and ultimately serving our customers in a better way.

    總而言之,正如我們今天在這裡討論的那樣,我們多年來一直在轉型之旅中,取得了令人難以置信的進步並取得了許多成功。在我們建立強大的基礎的同時,我們也更好地利用我們的人員和產品組合,並最終以更好的方式為我們的客戶提供服務。

  • We're very confident we've built a very robust operating system across the portfolio and are going to be well positioned to deliver for our shareholders. And I do look forward to updating all of you as we continue to make progress.

    我們非常有信心,我們已經在整個投資組合中建立了一個非常強大的作業系統,並將做好充分準備為我們的股東提供服務。隨著我們不斷取得進展,我確實期待著向大家通報最新情況。

  • So with that, operator, that concludes our call.

    接線員,我們的通話到此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

    謝謝你,先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路,度過美好的一天。